江森自控 (JCI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Johnson Controls Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加江森自控 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁吉姆·盧卡斯 (Jim Lucas)。請繼續。

Good morning and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls' third quarter fiscal 2023 results. The press release and all related tables issued earlier this morning as well as the conference call slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at johnsoncontrols.com.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論江森自控 2023 財年第三季度業績。今天上午早些時候發布的新聞稿和所有相關表格以及電話會議幻燈片演示可以在我們網站 johnsoncontrols.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, George Oliver; and Chief Financial Officer, Olivier Leonetti.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是江森自控董事長兼首席執行官喬治·奧利弗 (George Oliver)；兼首席財務官奧利維爾·萊昂內蒂 (Olivier Leonetti)。

Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Johnson Controls. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors and cautionary statements in our most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's release.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您，在今天的演示中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。請聽眾注意，這些陳述存在一定的風險和不確定性，其中許多風險和不確定性難以預測，並且通常超出了江森自控的控制範圍。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們當前的預期存在重大差異。我們建議聽眾仔細查看我們最新的表格 10-Q、表格 10-K 和今天發布的風險因素和警示聲明。

We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are contained in the schedules attached to our press release and in the appendix to this presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Johnson Controls' website.

我們還將參考某些非公認會計原則措施。這些非公認會計原則衡量標準與最直接可比的公認會計原則衡量標準的調節包含在我們新聞稿所附的時間表和本演示文稿的附錄中，兩者都可以在江森自控網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I will now turn the call over to George.

我現在將把電話轉給喬治。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today. Let's begin with Slide 3.

謝謝吉姆，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始。

Johnson Controls delivered another strong quarter that met the high end of our guidance. We delivered 9% organic sales growth, adjusted segment EBITDA margin expansion of 130 basis points and 21% adjusted EPS growth. Our longer cycle building solutions business continued to show strength globally and service momentum accelerated, driven by our enhanced solutions and increased adoption of our digital offerings.

江森自控再次實現了強勁的季度業績，達到了我們指導的上限。我們的有機銷售額增長了 9%，調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 130 個基點，調整後的每股收益增長了 21%。在我們增強的解決方案和更多地採用我們的數字產品的推動下，我們的長周期建築解決方案業務繼續在全球範圍內展現實力，服務勢頭加速。

Orders grew 8% overall, with service orders leading the way with 12% growth. Our backlog ended the quarter up 8% to $12 billion across both install and service. We remain confident in the resiliency of our backlog and order momentum as our performance during the quarter solidifies our investments in building a world-class service organization. We continue to see a strong pipeline of opportunities, and the outlook for orders in our longer cycle businesses remains robust.

訂單總體增長 8%，其中服務訂單增幅最高，增長 12%。本季度末，我們的安裝和服務積壓訂單增長了 8%，達到 120 億美元。我們對積壓訂單和訂單勢頭的彈性仍然充滿信心，因為我們本季度的業績鞏固了我們在建設世界一流服務組織方面的投資。我們繼續看到大量的機會，並且我們較長周期業務的訂單前景仍然強勁。

In our shorter cycle Global Products business, our Applied and Rooftop businesses delivered another quarter of very strong double-digit growth and demand remains strong. We also continue to see strength in our Commercial Deducted and Fire Detection businesses. Consistent with trends in the industry, our Ducted North American residential business remains soft.

在我們週期較短的全球產品業務中，我們的應用和屋頂業務又一個季度實現了非常強勁的兩位數增長，需求依然強勁。我們還繼續看到我們的商業扣除和火災探測業務的實力。與行業趨勢一致，我們的北美管道式住宅業務仍然疲軟。

Overall, we are encouraged by the continued strength and good visibility across our Building Solutions segments. As we look ahead for the remainder of the year with 1 quarter to go, we are narrowing our full year adjusted EPS guide to approximately $3.55, which represents the midpoint of the previous range.

總體而言，我們對建築解決方案領域持續的實力和良好的知名度感到鼓舞。當我們展望今年剩餘時間（即最後一個季度）時，我們將全年調整後每股收益指南縮小至約 3.55 美元，這代表了之前範圍的中點。

At Johnson Controls, we continue to expand on the solid foundation that we have built, with strong order momentum and a record backlog driving consistent top line growth. We have made good progress enhancing profitability across our portfolio throughout the fiscal year, and we have significant actions underway that we believe will result in further margin expansion.

在江森自控，我們在已經建立的堅實基礎上繼續擴張，強勁的訂單勢頭和創紀錄的積壓訂單推動了營收的持續增長。在整個財年中，我們在提高整個投資組合的盈利能力方面取得了良好進展，並且我們正在採取重大行動，我們相信這些行動將導致利潤率進一步擴大。

Now turning to Slide 4. We have spent the past few years investing more strategically in our service business, and we are seeing strong returns from those investments. During the third quarter, service orders and sales both grew 12%. Our service business has transformed from a traditional break-and-fix business to helping customers proactively and more efficiently optimize management of all assets in the building. Digital is becoming an important enabler to driving more service opportunities and growth. We also accelerated sales of our higher-margin parts business, which, once again, grew at a strong double-digit pace in the quarter.

現在轉向幻燈片 4。過去幾年，我們對服務業務進行了更具戰略性的投資，並且我們看到了這些投資的強勁回報。第三季度，服務訂單和銷售額均增長 12%。我們的服務業務已從傳統的故障維修業務轉變為幫助客戶主動、更高效地優化建築物內所有資產的管理。數字化正在成為推動更多服務機會和增長的重要推動因素。我們還加快了利潤率較高的零部件業務的銷售，該業務在本季度再次以兩位數的速度強勁增長。

Decarbonization is an area of focus across the entire Johnson Controls portfolio. This includes our Sustainable Infrastructure, or SI business, as well as many products and solutions in our portfolio, such as heat pumps, energy-efficient refrigerants and digital solutions. In fact, nearly 55% of revenue comes from sustainable products and solutions. We continue to see strong demand in our SI business with orders growing 20% in the quarter. Heat pump sales were up mid-single digits globally, with very strong double-digit growth in our Applied and Industrial Refrigeration businesses.

脫碳是整個江森自控產品組合的重點領域。這包括我們的可持續基礎設施（SI）業務，以及我們產品組合中的許多產品和解決方案，例如熱泵、節能製冷劑和數字解決方案。事實上，近 55% 的收入來自可持續產品和解決方案。我們繼續看到 SI 業務的強勁需求，本季度訂單增長了 20%。全球熱泵銷售額實現中個位數增長，我們的應用和工業製冷業務實現了非常強勁的兩位數增長。

During the quarter, we acquired M&M Carnot, a leading provider of natural refrigerant solutions with ultra-low global warming potential, or GWP. M&M designs equipment and controls that use carbon dioxide, which has a GWP of 1. By contrast, traditional refrigerants can have GWPs and thousands magnifying rather than solving global warming.

本季度，我們收購了 M&M Carnot，這是一家領先的天然製冷劑解決方案供應商，其全球變暖潛能值 (GWP) 極低。 M&M 設計的設備和控制裝置使用二氧化碳，其 GWP 為 1。相比之下，傳統製冷劑的 GWP 可以放大數千倍，但無法解決全球變暖問題。

We have spent the past few years defining our multiphase digital strategy to transform environments to more effectively use data to drive outcomes for our customers, and we continue to gain momentum. In the quarter, we grew our connected revenue at a high single digit rate, and we surpassed 16,000 connected chillers. We are now expanding OpenBlue into connecting controls and security to better optimize customer assets and improve outcomes in buildings, further differentiating our offering.

在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在製定多階段數字戰略，以改變環境，更有效地利用數據來為客戶帶來成果，並且我們繼續獲得動力。本季度，我們的聯網收入以高個位數增長，聯網冷水機數量超過 16,000 台。我們現在正在將 OpenBlue 擴展到連接控制和安全，以更好地優化客戶資產並改善建築物的結果，進一步使我們的產品脫穎而出。

Historically, buildings required stand-alone system to manage each asset within the building. Today, connected buildings are creating a single digital dashboard optimized for energy, but still require multiple systems to manage the assets. We are making great progress in creating the digital thread throughout the building life cycle, and connecting controls is the next step in the evolution of this journey.

從歷史上看，建築物需要獨立的系統來管理建築物內的每項資產。如今，互聯建築正在創建針對能源進行優化的單一數字儀表板，但仍然需要多個系統來管理資產。我們在創建整個建築生命週期的數字主線方面取得了巨大進展，而連接控制是這一旅程發展的下一步。

Moving on to Slide 5. We recently announced the acquisition of FM:Systems, which is an important next step in adding critical capabilities to OpenBlue. FM:Systems is a leader in the growing integrated workplace management system, or IWMS, sector. IWMS furthers our OpenBlue capabilities, along with Johnson Controls to offer a one-stop solution that helps customers accelerate their digital transformation journey, improve building efficiency and reduce operational costs. FM:Systems advances OpenBlue's capabilities that brings a significant amount of data, including service, space utilization and real estate portfolio management. The addition of FM's capabilities into OpenBlue enhances Johnson Controls' relationship with customers by providing a full suite of integrated outcome-based solutions.

轉到幻燈片 5。我們最近宣布收購 FM:Systems，這是為 OpenBlue 添加關鍵功能的重要的下一步。 FM:Systems 是不斷發展的集成工作場所管理系統 (IWMS) 領域的領導者。 IWMS 進一步增強了我們的 OpenBlue 功能，與江森自控一起提供一站式解決方案，幫助客戶加速數字化轉型之旅、提高建築效率並降低運營成本。 FM:Systems 改進了 OpenBlue 的功能，帶來大量數據，包括服務、空間利用率和房地​​產投資組合管理。將 FM 的功能添加到 OpenBlue 中可以提供一整套基於結果的集成解決方案，從而增強江森自控與客戶的關係。

Turning to Slide 6. Extreme temperatures are increasingly straining buildings, putting at risk the ability to deliver comfortable and healthy indoor environments. Our OpenBlue digital solutions help optimize indoor air quality, comfort and energy consumption, while monitoring outdoor air condition, ensuring our customers can meet their operating objectives even in the most extreme conditions. When paired with our OpenBlue digital services, we are uniquely positioned to help our customers deliver healthy indoor environments, while optimizing costs, reducing emissions and ensuring HVAC equipment is operating at peak performance ready for any condition.

轉向幻燈片 6。極端溫度對建築物的壓力越來越大，使提供舒適和健康的室內環境的能力面臨風險。我們的 OpenBlue 數字解決方案有助於優化室內空氣質量、舒適度和能耗，同時監控室外空氣狀況，確保我們的客戶即使在最極端的條件下也能實現其運營目標。與我們的 OpenBlue 數字服務配合使用時，我們具有獨特的優勢，可以幫助客戶提供健康的室內環境，同時優化成本、減少排放並確保 HVAC 設備在任何條件下都能以最佳性能運行。

We spoke earlier to the progress we are making expanding margins, and we are not done. Supply chains are improving, which have normalized lead times, allowing us to create better operating leverage in our manufacturing facilities. We continue to make progress in improving our SG&A structure and have additional actions underway to further optimize our performance.

我們之前談到了我們在擴大利潤方面取得的進展，但我們的工作還沒有結束。供應鏈正在改善，交貨時間正常化，使我們能夠在製造設施中創造更好的運營槓桿。我們繼續在改善銷售、管理和行政費用結構方面取得進展，並正在採取其他行動來進一步優化我們的業績。

On capital allocation, we have established a track record of being prudent and disciplined. In fiscal 2023, we have returned $1.3 billion to shareholders via share repurchases and dividends in addition to investing in several strategic acquisitions.

在資本配置方面，我們保持了審慎、自律的記錄。 2023 財年，除了投資多項戰略收購外，我們還通過股票回購和股息向股東返還 13 億美元。

Climate change is a defining theme of this century. With nearly 40% of emissions coming from buildings, we have the technology and the people to turn buildings from one of the greatest challenges into one of the biggest and best solutions.

氣候變化是本世紀的一個決定性主題。近 40% 的排放來自建築物，我們擁有技術和人才，可以將建築物從最大的挑戰之一轉變為最大、最好的解決方案之一。

I will now turn the call over to Olivier to go through the financial details of the quarter. Olivier?

我現在將把電話轉給奧利維爾，以了解本季度的財務細節。奧利維爾？

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the summary on Slide 7.

謝謝喬治，大家早上好。讓我從幻燈片 7 上的摘要開始。

Total sales grew 8%, while organic sales increased 9%, with strong double-digit growth in our service business. FX was a 2% headwind in the quarter. Adjusted segment EBITA increased 17%, with margins expanding 130 basis points to 16.4%. Price/cost was positive and we delivered strong productivity savings.

總銷售額增長 8%，有機銷售額增長 9%，服務業務實現強勁的兩位數增長。本季度外匯市場出現 2% 的逆風。調整後部門 EBITA 增長 17%，利潤率擴大 130 個基點至 16.4%。價格/成本是積極的，我們實現了顯著的生產力節省。

Turning to our EPS bridge on Slide 8. Adjusted EPS of $1.03 was at the high end of our guidance and increased 21% year-over-year. Operations contributed $0.23 of the growth in the quarter, benefiting from positive price/cost and our ongoing SG&A and COGS actions. Below the line, we saw headwinds from net financing costs, FX and noncontrolling interest. Overall, we were pleased with the strong adjusted EPS performance in the third quarter.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的 EPS 橋樑。調整後 EPS 為 1.03 美元，處於我們指導的上限，同比增長 21%。受益於積極的價格/成本以及我們持續的 SG&A 和 COGS 行動，運營為本季度的增長貢獻了 0.23 美元。在此線下方，我們看到了來自淨融資成本、外彙和非控股權益的阻力。總體而言，我們對第三季度調整後每股收益的強勁表現感到滿意。

Let's now discuss our segment results in more detail on Slides 9 through 12. Beginning on Slide 9. Organic sales in our shorter-cycle Global Products business increased 6% in the quarter, with 8% of price offsetting a slight volume decline. Global Products continues to see strength in the applied business, where our off top business in North America has nearly doubled this year. Client Security grew low single digits, with continued momentum within our fire detection products. Industrial Refrigeration had another strong quarter, growing over 20%, driven by North America. Our Global Products third-party backlog increased 8% from the prior year to $2.5 billion. Adjusted segment EBITA margins declined 10 basis points against a tough comparison to 22.1%, as continued weakness in the residential North America market offset positive price cost and productivity savings.

現在讓我們在幻燈片9 至12 上更詳細地討論我們的部門業績。從幻燈片9 開始。本季度我們的短週期全球產品業務的有機銷售額增長了6%，其中8% 的價格抵消了銷量的小幅下降。 Global Products 在應用業務方面繼續保持強勁勢頭，今年我們在北美的非頂級業務幾乎翻了一番。 Client Security 的銷售額增長幅度較低，但我們的火災探測產品仍保持強勁勢頭。在北美的推動下，工業製冷季度再次表現強勁，增長超過 20%。我們的全球產品第三方積壓訂單比上一年增加了 8%，達到 25 億美元。由於北美住宅市場的持續疲軟抵消了積極的價格成本和生產力節省，調整後的部門 EBITA 利潤率下降了 10 個基點，與 22.1% 的嚴峻對比。

Moving to Slide 11 to discuss our Building Solutions performance. Orders increased 8% organically as demand remained strong, and we continue to convert our healthy pipeline. For the third consecutive quarter, service orders grew low double digits with 12% growth in the quarter, as our focused strategy on transforming services into a more predictable, consistent business is paying dividends.

轉到幻燈片 11，討論我們的建築解決方案性能。由於需求依然強勁，訂單有機增長了 8%，而且我們繼續轉變我們健康的渠道。服務訂單連續第三個季度實現低兩位數增長，本季度增長 12%，因為我們將服務轉變為更可預測、更一致的業務的重點戰略正在帶來紅利。

We saw installed orders increased 6% against a tougher comparison, led by double-digit orders in North America in the prior year. Total sales grew 10%, with organic sales increasing 11%. We saw strong double-digit growth in both service and install growing 12% and 10%, respectively. Adjusted segment EBITA increased 35%, with margins expanding 240 basis points as we continue to execute higher-margin backlog and recognize savings from our productivity initiatives. Building Solutions backlog remains at record levels, growing 8% to $12 billion. Both service and installed backlog increased 8% year-over-year.

我們發現安裝訂單增長了 6%，而更嚴格的比較是，去年北美地區的訂單量達到了兩位數。總銷售額增長 10%，其中有機銷售額增長 11%。我們看到服務和安裝都實現了兩位數的強勁增長，分別增長了 12% 和 10%。調整後的部門 EBITA 增長了 35%，利潤率擴大了 240 個基點，因為我們繼續執行利潤率更高的積壓訂單並認識到我們的生產力計劃所節省的成本。建築解決方案積壓訂單仍處於創紀錄水平，增長 8%，達到 120 億美元。服務和安裝積壓訂單同比增長 8%。

Let's discuss the Building Solutions' performance by region on Slide 12. Orders in North America increased 5%, with continued strength across our HVAC & Controls platforms, up high single digits year-over-year. Overall, there was robust demand in our office, data center, government, manufacturing and education sectors.

讓我們在幻燈片 12 上按地區討論建築解決方案的表現。北美的訂單增長了 5%，我們的 HVAC 和控制平台持續強勁，同比增長了高個位數。總體而言，我們的辦公室、數據中心、政府、製造和教育部門的需求強勁。

Service continues to perform well, increasing 8% year-over-year, driven by our shorter-term transactional business. Sales in North America were up 10% organically, with broad-based growth across the portfolio. Our installed business grew 11%, with over 20% growth in new construction. Our service business maintained its strong momentum with 9% growth.

在我們的短期交易業務的推動下，服務繼續表現良好，同比增長 8%。北美銷售額有機增長 10%，整個產品組合實現廣泛增長。我們的安裝業務增長了 11%，其中新建業務增長了 20% 以上。我們的服務業務保持強勁勢頭，增長 9%。

Sales across our HVAC & Controls platform grew low teens year-over-year, while Fire & Security increased high single digits. Segment margins expanded and then perceived 370 basis points year-over-year to 14.4%, driven by ongoing productivity benefits and the continued execution of higher-margin backlog. This resulted in a strong price cut performance.

我們的暖通空調和控制平台的銷售額同比增長了十幾位數，而消防和安全則實現了高個位數的增長。在持續的生產力效益和高利潤積壓訂單的持續執行的推動下，部門利潤率擴大，同比增長 370 個基點至 14.4%。這導致了強勁的降價表現。

Total backlog ended the quarter at $8 billion, up 11% year-over-year. In EMEALA, orders were up 10%, driven by healthy growth in service, up 19% year-over-year. Industrial Refrigeration and HVAC & Controls had solid results in the quarter, with each growing over 25%, driven by the decarbonization efforts in the United Kingdom and Northern Europe. By region, we saw double-digit growth in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. We saw strong demand in both our government and industrial sectors.

本季度末未完成訂單總額達 80 億美元，同比增長 11%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，在服務健康增長的推動下，訂單量增長了 10%，同比增長 19%。在英國和北歐脫碳努力的推動下，工業製冷和暖通空調及控制領域本季度業績強勁，均增長超過 25%。按地區劃分，中東、非洲和拉丁美洲實現了兩位數增長。我們看到政府和工業部門都有強勁的需求。

Sales in EMEALA grew 9% organically, led by mid-teens growth in service as our shorter-cycle transactional business continues to have good momentum. Applied Commercial HVAC grew high single digits, driven by healthy performance in Latin America. Fire & Security grew high single digits within the quarter.

由於我們的短週期交易業務繼續保持良好勢頭，在服務業務增長的帶動下，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額有機增長了 9%。在拉丁美洲健康表現的推動下，應用商業暖通空調業務實現了高個位數增長。消防與安全在本季度實現了高個位數增長。

Segment EBITA margins declined 10 basis points to 8.6%, but increased 190 basis points sequentially, driven by further improvement of higher-margin backlog conversion. Backlog was up 6% year-over-year to $2.3 billion.

部門 EBITA 利潤率下降 10 個基點至 8.6%，但由於利潤率較高的積壓訂單轉化率進一步改善，環比增長 190 個基點。積壓訂單同比增長 6%，達到 23 億美元。

In Asia Pacific, orders grew 14%, driven by double-digit growth in both service and install. By region, China grew 14% year-over-year, with continued strength in data centers and manufacturing sectors. Northeast Asia had growth of high teens driven by controls. Sales in Asia Pacific increased 16%, with 90% growth in service and 14% growth in install. Overall, commercial HVAC & Controls grew approximately 20%, driven by the installed business within China, while Fire & Security declined low single digits.

在亞太地區，在服務和安裝兩位數增長的推動下，訂單增長了 14%。按地區劃分，中國同比增長 14%，數據中心和製造業持續強勁。在控制的推動下，東北亞青少年的數量有所增長。亞太地區銷售額增長 16%，其中服務增長 90%，安裝增長 14%。總體而言，在中國境內安裝業務的推動下，商業暖通空調和控制領域增長了約 20%，而消防與安全領域則出現了較低的個位數下降。

China continued its momentum from Q2, reporting 25% growth in the quarter, which included double-digit growth in both service and install. Segment EBITA margins expanded 110 basis points to 13.9%, driven by ongoing productivity savings and the execution of higher-margin backlog, resulting in positive price costs. Backlog of $1.7 billion increased 2% year-over-year.

中國延續了第二季度的增長勢頭，本季度增長 25%，其中服務和安裝量均實現兩位數增長。由於持續的生產力節省和高利潤積壓訂單的執行，導致價格成本上升，該部門的 EBITA 利潤率擴大了 110 個基點，達到 13.9%。積壓訂單 17 億美元，同比增長 2%。

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 13. We ended the third quarter with $1.1 billion in available cash and net debt declined 2.1x, which remains within our longer-term target of 2 to 2.5x. Inventory turns improved sequentially and free cash flow remains a major focus, with inventory being a key driver to further improvement in the fourth quarter.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的資產負債表和現金流。第三季度結束時，我們的可用現金為 11 億美元，淨債務下降了 2.1 倍，仍然在我們 2 至 2.5 倍的長期目標之內。庫存周轉率連續改善，自由現金流仍然是主要關注點，庫存是第四季度進一步改善的關鍵驅動力。

Now let's discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal year '23 guidance on Slide 14. We are introducing fourth quarter sales guidance of approximately 4%. We expect Building Solutions' momentum to continue, while Global Products faces a tough year-over-year comparison, driven by inventory reduction in residential HVAC and certain Fire & Security and direct channels as the time of materially improved. For the fourth quarter, we expect segment EBITA margin to expand approximately 60 basis points and adjusted EPS to approximate $1.10, which represents 11% year-over-year growth.

現在讓我們討論幻燈片 14 上的第四季度和 23 財年指導。我們引入了約 4% 的第四季度銷售指導。我們預計建築解決方案的勢頭將持續下去，而全球產品面臨著嚴峻的同比比較，這是由於隨著時間的實質性改善，住宅暖通空調和某些消防與安全以及直接渠道的庫存減少。對於第四季度，我們預計該部門的 EBITA 利潤率將擴大約 60 個基點，調整後每股收益約為 1.10 美元，同比增長 11%。

For the full year, we are narrowing our adjusted EPS guidance to approximate $3.55, which represents the midpoint of the prior range. This represents 18% year-over-year growth. We expect organic sales to grow high single digits and segment EBITA margins to expand approximately 110 basis points. We expect free cash flow conversion to be roughly 70% as we make good progress on inventory reduction, while not at the level we were expecting, given some inventory reduction occurring in our indirect channels. We see good momentum continuing to build for fiscal '24.

對於全年，我們將調整後的每股收益指引縮小至約 3.55 美元，即之前範圍的中點。這意味著同比增長 18%。我們預計有機銷售額將增長高個位數，部門 EBITA 利潤率將擴大約 110 個基點。我們預計自由現金流轉換約為 70%，因為我們在庫存減少方面取得了良好進展，但考慮到我們的間接渠道中發生了一些庫存減少，因此未達到我們預期的水平。我們看到 24 財年的良好勢頭繼續增強。

Our longer-cycle Building Solutions segments continue to experience strong orders and backlog remains at record levels. Global Product is benefiting from strength in the larger Commercial HVAC space, while residential HVAC comps should ease entering the new fiscal year. We have made good progress on expanding margins this year and we are not done.

我們的周期較長的建築解決方案部門繼續獲得強勁的訂單，積壓訂單仍保持在創紀錄的水平。全球產品受益於更大的商業暖通空調領域的實力，而住宅暖通空調公司在進入新財年時應該會輕鬆一些。今年我們在擴大利潤率方面取得了良好進展，但我們還沒有完成。

With that, operator, please open up the lines for questions.

那麼，接線員，請打開提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Maybe we could just unpack a little bit more the fourth quarter sales growth, especially within Global Products. So it sounds like you're still seeing, I don't know, high digit growth in the Solutions businesses, and it looks like Products down mid-single digits or so. Is that correct? And maybe just talk about some of the headwinds. I mean I think Resi HVAC, we understand, but maybe just talk about the Fire & Security products headwinds, maybe unpacked between geographies and end markets?

也許我們可以進一步了解第四季度的銷售增長，特別是在全球產品領域。所以，聽起來你仍然看到，我不知道，解決方案業務的高數字增長，而產品似乎下降了中個位數左右。那是對的嗎？也許只是談談一些不利因素。我的意思是，我認為 Resi HVAC，我們理解，但也許只是談論消防和安全產品的逆風，也許在地域和終端市場之間展開？

Nigel, let me start by saying our overall commercial business, both products and services remains incredibly strong. And what I would say is across the board, hitting on all cylinders. We do continue to see strong bookings in our Applied in our Rooftop -- Commercial Rooftop businesses across the board.

奈傑爾，首先我要說的是，我們的整體商業業務，包括產品和服務仍然非常強勁。我想說的是全面推進，全力以赴。我們確實繼續看到我們的屋頂應用——商業屋頂業務的整體預訂量強勁。

When you look at our Building Solutions, we made great progress during the course of the year, improving the margins. And the service momentum now is expected to continue. And when I look at the -- our Building Solutions business, we've got a very strong backlog. And more important, is within that backlog, the mix of services that are coming through with the momentum that we've been building, and now adding FM:Systems is going to be a big add to that.

當您查看我們的建築解決方案時，您會發現我們在這一年中取得了巨大進步，提高了利潤。目前的服務勢頭預計將持續下去。當我查看我們的建築解決方案業務時，我們的積壓訂單非常多。更重要的是，在積壓的工作中，我們一直在建立的勢頭正在實現服務組合，現在添加 FM:Systems 將是一個很大的補充。

Now referencing the orders in Q4 -- in revenue in Q4. When you look at our Residential and Fire & Security businesses, we have been experiencing some short-term pressure in our shorter cycle book-to-bill business. And it's in those two areas. The inventories in the channel are resetting as we've been able to improve lead times. And so therefore, there are some short-term adjustments in the book-to-bill revenues.

現在參考第四季度的訂單——第四季度的收入。當你看看我們的住宅和消防與安全業務時，我們在較短週期的訂單到賬單業務中遇到了一些短期壓力。就在這兩個領域。由於我們能夠縮短交貨時間，因此渠道中的庫存正在重置。因此，訂單出貨收入會出現一些短期調整。

But what I would say is with those adjustments, we're continuing to execute with the deployment of our new products, and we're seeing good traction there. And as we project going forward, we still see that coming back and being very strong as we set up for 2024.

但我想說的是，通過這些調整，我們將繼續執行新產品的部署，並且我們看到了良好的牽引力。當我們展望未來時，我們仍然看到這種情況會回來，並且在我們為 2024 年設定的目標中表現非常強勁。

So on the resi, I think it's in line with what you're seeing across the industry. And Fire & Security is, mainly, in our products business, which, ultimately, is a book-to-bill business, and therefore, we're seeing that adjustment.

因此，就 Resi 而言，我認為這與您在整個行業中看到的情況一致。消防與安全主要是在我們的產品業務中，最終是一個從訂單到賬單的業務，因此，我們看到了這種調整。

Okay. That's clear. We'll follow up offline. George, you mentioned '24. And obviously, we'll the calendar into FY '24 very soon. So maybe talk about how you're thinking about the setup for '24. I don't know, based on the backlog conversion or customer conversations, how should we think about the top line environment for FY '24?

好的。很清楚。我們將在線下跟進。喬治，你提到了'24。顯然，我們很快就會將日曆納入 24 財年。那麼也許可以談談你對 24 週年的安排有何看法。我不知道，根據積壓訂單轉換或客戶對話，我們應該如何考慮 24 財年的營收環境？

Nigel, what I'd say is that we're still building the '24 plan, but I'd touch upon some key items here that I think really set us up well for '24. When you look at the commercial markets, and as I talked a little bit earlier, that we see that are incredibly healthy and are playing to our strengths, especially with the secular trends that are underway within the commercial space.

Nigel，我想說的是，我們仍在製定“24 小時計劃”，但我想在這裡談談一些關鍵項目，我認為這些項目確實為我們的“24 小時計劃”做好了準備。當你觀察商業市場時，正如我之前所說，我們看到它非常健康，並且正在發揮我們的優勢，特別是考慮到商業領域正在發生的長期趨勢。

And so that we see with our orders up 8%, with our backlog up in our Building Solutions business at $12 billion and even in our Global Products business, despite some of the inventory adjustments, we are up about 8% in our Global Products business also. And so when you look at that, that momentum is going to continue.

And so that we see with our orders up 8%, with our backlog up in our Building Solutions business at $12 billion and even in our Global Products business, despite some of the inventory adjustments, we are up about 8% in our Global Products business也.因此，當你看到這一點時，這種勢頭將會持續下去。

Now if you add the stimulus spending that we don't believe has really been materialized yet, is in the background. And I believe with these secular trends and the combination of what we're doing in HVAC with our digital platform and now services, are going to benefit really nicely from the investments that, ultimately, are going to be needed to drive sustainability.

現在，如果加上我們認為尚未真正實現的刺激支出，那就是在幕後。我相信，隨著這些長期趨勢以及我們在暖通空調領域所做的工作與我們的數字平台和現在的服務的結合，將從最終推動可持續發展所需的投資中受益匪淺。

Then if you look at our backlog, we look at this very closely. It's very resilient and very strong, with the idea that we believe that even through the next quarter, we've got an incredible pipeline that we're converting. We're working to develop the backlog so that when we plan and ultimately, enter next year, we're going to have a nice backlog to work from.

然後，如果你看看我們的積壓工作，我們會非常仔細地考慮這一點。它非常有彈性而且非常強大，我們相信即使在下個季度，我們也有一個令人難以置信的管道正在轉換。我們正在努力開發積壓工作，以便當我們計劃並最終進入明年時，我們將有一個很好的積壓工作可以利用。

Then the last is really the acceleration of the transformation of our Building Solutions business to services. That proposition is playing out. I would call it our flywheel, which has been accelerating, which is about creating installed base, getting that in base connected with higher attach rates, with higher revenue per customer. That leads to lower attrition.

最後一個是我們的建築解決方案業務向服務轉型的加速。這個提議正在得到落實。我將其稱為我們的飛輪，它一直在加速，這是為了創建安裝基礎，使基礎與更高的附加率連接起來，並為每個客戶帶來更高的收入。這會導致人員流失率降低。

And then all of that spins out additional business, like with our spare parts and upgrades and the like. So I feel that the current trends that we see and how we're being set up, we're going to set up for a nice 2024. But again, we can't predict the environment, but the trends that are underway do play to our strengths.

然後所有這些都會產生額外的業務，比如我們的備件和升級等。因此，我覺得我們看到的當前趨勢以及我們的設置方式，我們將為美好的 2024 年做好準備。但同樣，我們無法預測環境，但正在發生的趨勢確實會發揮作用發揮我們的優勢。

An additional comment on the margin, Nigel. First of all, in gross margin, we see expansion in gross margin. George mentioned it. Services is growing faster than install now. We are using install as a vehicle to drive service. So we should see gross margin expansion. And also we're working on further SG&A leverage as we standardize and leverage also functional excellence across the organization. So top line and margin, we believe we are well positioned for '24.

關於邊際的附加評論，奈傑爾。首先，在毛利率方面，我們看到毛利率在擴張。喬治提到過。服務的增長速度比現在的安裝速度還要快。我們使用安裝作為驅動服務的工具。因此，我們應該會看到毛利率擴張。此外，我們正在努力進一步發揮 SG&A 槓桿作用，因為我們正在標準化並利用整個組織的卓越職能。因此，就營收和利潤而言，我們相信我們在 24 年處於有利地位。

Next question will come from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩提出。

Can you just walk through a little bit the fourth quarter and the sales deceleration as well as maybe some color on what you would expect for the margins by segment? The growth seems to be slowing pretty significantly here. Just wanted to see if that's concentrated in any particular business? Maybe just some segment color for the fourth quarter?

您能否簡單介紹一下第四季度和銷售減速情況，以及您對各細分市場利潤率的預期？這裡的增長似乎明顯放緩。只是想看看這是否集中在任何特定業務上？也許只是第四季度的一些片段顏色？

So if you look at the top line today, in the Building Solutions business, the top line is very strong. The order momentum is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. We have good visibility today based upon where we are today in the quarter.

因此，如果你看看今天的建築解決方案業務的營收，你會發現營收非常強勁。預計第四季度訂單勢頭將持續。根據本季度今天的情況，我們今天擁有良好的可見性。

You have in the top line some inventory adjustments happening in the channel that is impacting our shorter-cycle business, resi and Fire & Security. George mentioned that would be an impact on Global Product, but we see that as being temporary.

在營收方面，渠道中發生了一些庫存調整，這影響了我們的短週期業務、耐火材料和消防與安全業務。喬治提到這將對全球產品產生影響，但我們認為這是暫時的。

If you look at the margin, we believe that the fill business -- our business -- solution business margin will keep improving. In the Global Products business, we see the margin being slightly flat. What is happening in the global business, you have that in Q3, it's happening in Q4.

如果你看一下利潤率，我們相信填充業務——我們的業務——解決方案業務的利潤率將不斷提高。在全球產品業務中，我們看到利潤率略有持平。全球業務中正在發生的事情，在第三季度、第四季度都發生了。

So you have some absorption as we are ramping applied volumes to drive market share and lead time. We have had some absorption impact. And also, we have normalizing inventory. Inventory in finished goods went down by about 20 days in about 2 quarters, that is impacting also absorption. So that's the story in terms of margin, Steve, and revenue.

因此，當我們增加應用量以提高市場份額和交貨時間時，您會有所吸收。我們已經產生了一些吸收影響。此外，我們還實現了庫存正常化。製成品庫存在大約兩個季度內減少了大約 20 天，這也影響了吸收。這就是利潤、史蒂夫和收入方面的故事。

Yes. I guess for Global Products, what do you expect for revenue maybe either organic year-over-year or sequentially, however you think about it? Because I think that's kind of where the whole is on revenue here, it seems like?

是的。我想對於全球產品，您對收入的預期可能是有機同比收入或連續收入，無論您如何看待？因為我認為這就是這裡的整體收入，看起來像？

Revenue in Global Products would be growing low single digits to flat, and the margin would be expanding to flat for Global Products because of the two phenomenons I've mentioned, Steve.

由於我提到的兩個現象，史蒂夫，全球產品的收入將從低個位數增長到持平，而全球產品的利潤率將擴大到持平。

Yes. Okay. Then -- sorry, one last quick one. How much price did you get in the field business in the quarter?

是的。好的。然後——抱歉，最後一個。本季度您在現場業務中獲得了多少價格？

We don't talk about price anymore for the Building Solutions business because we sell a solution. It's difficult to differentiate price from volume anymore, and we have discussed about this. But overall, pricing and value proposition is resonating with our customers.

我們不再談論建築解決方案業務的價格，因為我們銷售的是解決方案。很難區分價格和數量，我們已經討論過這個問題。但總體而言，定價和價值主張引起了我們客戶的共鳴。

So I guess how do you calculate -- if you don't calculate price, how do you calculate price cost then in your slides, on Slide 12, for the Solutions business?

所以我想你如何計算——如果你不計算價格，那麼你如何計算幻燈片 12 中解決方案業務的價格成本？

It's mainly going to impact our global business and to an extent also the field.

它主要會影響我們的全球業務，並在一定程度上影響該領域。

And Steve, just to comment on that. As we've discussed, we've been building models, robust models from a cost value proposition standpoint. And it's calculated on based on the inflation that we've built into our long-cycle businesses, and then how that plays out to then the value proposition that we bring to our customers with the differentiated install and then ultimately, which then leads to our service growth. And that's what's in the overall equation there as far as price.

史蒂夫對此發表評論。正如我們所討論的，我們一直在構建模型，從成本價值主張的角度來看，穩健的模型。它是根據我們在長周期業務中建立的通貨膨脹進行計算的，然後是如何發揮我們通過差異化安裝為客戶帶來的價值主張，然後最終導致我們的服務增長。就價格而言，這就是總體方程式中的內容。

Our next question will come from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Maybe just going back to the destocking comments in Global Products. I'm sure you guys have had conversations with your channel partners. It might be -- there might be a little bit of uncertainty, but you did mention, Olivier, I guess, that you expect this to be temporary.

也許只是回到《全球產品》中的去庫存評論。我確信你們已經與渠道合作夥伴進行過對話。可能 - 可能有一點不確定性，但你確實提到，奧利維爾，我想，你預計這只是暫時的。

What kind of sense do you get in terms of the timing of destocking and how elevated their inventories are today? I'm just trying to get a sense for how quickly we should get back to normal demand patterns in that business.

您對去庫存的時機以及他們今天的庫存水平有何看法？我只是想了解我們應該多快恢復該業務的正常需求模式。

Well, let me take that, Joe. On the resi side, I think in line with what everyone is seeing in the industry, we've seen a significant adjustment. And we've taken that in the first half and now through the third quarter, a pretty significant adjustment.

好吧，讓我接受，喬。在渣油方面，我認為與業內每個人所看到的一致，我們已經看到了重大調整。我們在上半年和現在的第三季度都進行了相當重大的調整。

We're now -- we believe we're now in line with the industry relative to our volumes and the like. Now when you look at -- we do believe there's some additional destocking in Q4. But I think through that, we'll set up here in the first quarter for the second quarter of next year, I think will be pretty normalized.

我們現在 - 我們相信我們現在在銷量等方面與行業保持一致。現在，當你看到時，我們確實相信第四季度會有一些額外的去庫存。但我認為，通過這一點，我們將在明年第二季度的第一季度在這裡設立，我認為這將是相當正常化的。

The other, on the Fire & Security, when you look at those businesses, it is mainly a product of when we saw a significant ramp when lead times were extended, we developed significant backlog. And we've been working down that backlog.

另一個，在消防和安全方面，當你觀察這些業務時，它主要是當我們看到交貨時間延長時出現顯著增長時的產物，我們產生了大量的積壓。我們一直在努力解決積壓的問題。

The good news I see now is on the input side. As we're now moving forward, we're starting to see a pickup now of some of that backlog. And so our ability to be able to then take on the orders, create the backlog and then be positioned from a supply chain to respond, we're in a much better position.

我現在看到的好消息是在輸入端。隨著我們現在的進展，我們開始看到一些積壓的工作有所增加。因此，我們能夠接受訂單，創建積壓訂單，然後從供應鏈中定位以做出響應，我們處於一個更好的位置。

And so we'll see some of that play out here in the fourth quarter as it relates to Fire & Security, but we do believe it's short term. And we do believe it's totally aligned with the lead times, the lead time adjustments that have been made. And I would tell you that when we look at some of the core products and new products that we're bringing into that segment, we're seeing some nice pickup on market share with some of the new products.

因此，我們將在第四季度看到其中一些與消防和安全相關的內容，但我們確實相信這是短期的。我們確實相信它與交貨時間、已經進行的交貨時間調整完全一致。我想告訴你，當我們審視我們引入該細分市場的一些核心產品和新產品時，我們發現一些新產品的市場份額出現了一些不錯的增長。

Okay. Great. That's good to hear, George. I guess maybe my second question, just going back to 2024 and just thinking about the service growth that you've seen over the last 3 quarters, obviously, that is going to be mix accretive to the business. How do you kind of think about the margin impact that's in backlog right now and that we should see come through in 2024 in the Building Solutions business?

好的。偉大的。很高興聽到這個消息，喬治。我想也許是我的第二個問題，回到 2024 年，想想過去 3 個季度的服務增長，顯然，這將為業務帶來混合增長。您如何看待建築解決方案業務目前積壓的利潤影響以及我們應該在 2024 年看到的影響？

Well, as it relates to the overall growth, I mean, I think this is the first that we've seen where now our service growth on a sustained basis is outpacing our install. And so when you go back to the strategy of the company, with our Building Solutions business, was to make sure we use install very strategically and how we build our installed base with our assets, with our equipment and then with the digital assets enable us to be able to extract over the life cycle, the services.

嗯，因為它與整體增長有關，我的意思是，我認為這是我們第一次看到我們的服務持續增長超過了我們的安裝速度。因此，當你回到公司的戰略時，我們的建築解決方案業務是確保我們非常戰略性地使用安裝，以及我們如何利用我們的資產、我們的設備以及數字資產來構建我們的安裝基礎，使我們能夠能夠在整個生命週期中提取服務。

And now with the digital content that we have, we're not only enhancing what historically we've done, but it's now given us the opportunity to add additional services with the customers that we're serving. And so we feel very good about continuing to sustain that growth rate in services. That will be a natural mix with the revenues that turn within our Building Solutions business globally. And we're seeing it.

現在，借助我們擁有的數字內容，我們不僅增強了我們過去所做的事情，而且現在讓我們有機會為我們所服務的客戶添加額外的服務。因此，我們對繼續維持服務業的增長率感到非常高興。這將與我們全球建築解決方案業務的收入自然結合。我們正在看到它。

The traction is in every one of the regions. I mean this is not isolated into one vertical or one region. It's pretty much across the board. And so with that, that combined to what Olivier said around margins, we continue to drive strong productivity both in COGS as well as SG&A. So that combined with the mix of services is going to continue to accrete margins within our Building Solutions business.

每個地區都有牽引力。我的意思是，這並不是孤立在一個垂直領域或一個區域中。這幾乎是全面的。因此，結合奧利維爾關於利潤率的說法，我們將繼續推動銷貨成本和銷售管理費用方面的強勁生產力。因此，與服務組合相結合將繼續增加我們建築解決方案業務的利潤。

Our next question will come from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題將由諾亞·凱和奧本海默提出。

First, it looks like guide is now for higher amortization of intangibles, and that's driving about a $0.05 EPS headwind versus the prior guide. Can you, a, confirm that math? And then b, talk about the timing expectation for accretion on some of the acquisitions you've made? I assume those acquisitions are what's driving the higher amortization for the year?

首先，看起來現在的指南是針對更高的無形資產攤銷，與之前的指南相比，這導致 EPS 下降約 0.05 美元。你能證實這個數學嗎？然後b，談談您所進行的一些收購的增值的時間預期？我認為這些收購是推動今年攤銷更高的原因？

No, you're right. I'm confirming the number. What we do probably, at some stage, we need to think about how we treat amortization of intangible know-how. Relative to our peers today, we're not guiding EPS in the same way we look at this, and we expect the accretion to start in -- at the start of next fiscal year.

不，你是對的。我正在確認號碼。在某些階段，我們可能需要考慮如何對待無形技術的攤銷。與今天的同行相比，我們對每股收益的指導方式與我們看待這一問題的方式不同，我們預計增長將從下一財年年初開始。

All right. That's helpful. And then just to better understand the free cash flow conversion dynamics. It sounds like you do expect some inventory reduction here in 4Q. But as we think about what needs to happen for you to kind of get back to close to that 100% free cash flow conversions we set for '24, what are you going to be focused on?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是為了更好地了解自由現金流轉換動態。聽起來您確實預計第四季度庫存會減少。但是，當我們考慮需要採取哪些措施才能恢復接近我們為 24 年設定的 100% 自由現金流轉換時，您將重點關注什麼？

You mentioned it, Noah. You mentioned it. We had a good progress in inventory reduction. In Q3, we have good momentum. As I indicated, we have reduced our finished goods level inventories in days by about 20 days. So that's where the focus is.

你提到過，諾亞。你提到過。我們在去庫存方面取得了良好的進展。第三季度，我們勢頭良好。正如我所指出的，我們已將成品庫存天數減少了約 20 天。所以這就是重點所在。

As lead time is improving, we have seen some inventory adjustments in the channel, and that is impacting on the short term, our ability to dispose of the inventory at the speed we had anticipated. But we believe it's a short-term phenomenon, and we believe that we are absolutely going to return to a 100% free cash flow conversion next fiscal.

隨著交貨時間的縮短，我們看到渠道中出現了一些庫存調整，這在短期內影響了我們以預期速度處置庫存的能力。但我們認為這是一個短期現象，我們相信下一財年我們絕對會恢復到 100% 的自由現金流轉換。

Our next question will come from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自垂直研究的傑夫·斯普拉格。

Just want to come back to service margins and kind of -- George, and you addressed this to some degree in a prior question. But certainly, the key KPI, in my view, in this quarter was the significant lift in North America margins in the quarter, and you delivered on that.

只是想回到服務利潤和喬治，你在之前的問題中在某種程度上解決了這個問題。但當然，在我看來，本季度的關鍵 KPI 是本季度北美利潤率的顯著提升，而你們也實現了這一點。

Is service mix playing a really significant role in that performance in the quarter? Or are we actually just seeing more kind of COGS and SG&A programs and other things you're trying to do on productivity? And maybe you could just give us a little bit more color on how you would expect that North American margin to progress into the fourth quarter?

服務組合在本季度的業績中是否發揮了真正重要的作用？或者我們實際上只是看到更多種類的銷貨成本和銷售管理費用計劃以及您試圖在生產力方面做的其他事情？也許您可以給我們更多的信息，告訴我們您預計第四季度北美利潤率將如何發展？

Yes. Let me reflect here, Jeff. If you go back to North America and what played out last year, you might recall that a lot of the backlog that was built up during '21 prior to the significant ramp-up of inflation and the backlog that turned is really what caused the margin pressure last year.

是的。讓我在這裡反思一下，傑夫。如果您回到北美以及去年的情況，您可能會記得，在通貨膨脹大幅上升之前，21世紀期間積累的大量積壓和積壓實際上是造成利潤的原因去年的壓力。

And so that -- and then the work that we've done since then with the -- our cost models and value proposition and pricing as a result on a go-forward basis. We've been building very strong margin and backlog across the board, not just in North America, but across our Building Solutions business over the last 18 months.

因此，從那時起我們所做的工作就是我們的成本模型、價值主張以及未來定價的結果。在過去 18 個月裡，我們不僅在北美，而且在我們的建築解決方案業務中，全線都建立了非常強勁的利潤和積壓訂單。

And so a significant piece of that is the margin we've been putting in backlog after that ramp-up of pricing and the accumulation of the inflationary cost that we took into consideration into our models. That being said, North America is starting to turn relative to service as a percent of revenue, and you're going to start to see that accretion on a go-forward basis contributing.

因此，其中一個重要部分是我們在定價上漲和模型中考慮的通脹成本累積後積壓的利潤。話雖這麼說，北美地區的服務佔收入的比例正開始轉變，你將開始看到這種增長在未來的基礎上做出貢獻。

Now also on a margin rate, we have been -- with the value proposition that we've had with service, we've been able to -- throughout the inflationary cycle, we've been able to maintain very attractive margins. And so it has been through that cycle very strong. And now with the mix going forward, it's going to be -- continue to be accelerating the accretion and the benefits that we're going to get in the margin rate on a go-forward basis.

現在，在保證金率方面，我們——憑藉我們在服務方面的價值主張，我們能夠——在整個通脹週期中，我們一直能夠保持非常有吸引力的利潤率。所以它已經非常強勁地經歷了這個週期。現在，隨著混合的發展，我們將繼續加速利潤率的增長和收益。

I would add, Jeff, and they go together, we are now driving install to drive services. It wasn't the case before. So you will see margin expansion also because we are very selective on installed. And to your point on SG&A, the -- much more is to come in terms of SG&A leverage as we standardize our operations further and we're in the middle of this and leverage functional excellence.

我想補充一點，傑夫，他們一起努力，我們現在正在推動安裝以推動服務。以前不是這樣的。因此，您也會看到利潤增長，因為我們對安裝非常挑剔。至於您關於 SG&A 的觀點，隨著我們進一步標準化我們的運營，並且我們正處於其中並利用卓越的功能，SG&A 槓桿方面還會有更多的事情發生。

So -- and we have said that, and our level of conviction is actually increasing. We believe we can deliver over the next year and forward 30% incremental for the company because of those two phenomenas, margin and SG&A.

所以——我們已經說過了，我們的信念實際上正在增強。我們相信，由於利潤率和 SG&A 這兩個現象，我們可以在明年實現目標，並為公司帶來 30% 的增量。

Right. And sounds like you're noodling on maybe moving to an ex-amortization EPS construct. I wonder if you'd opine a little further on that? And just the amortization that we see, how much of that is directly kind of deal-related amortization versus maybe amortization of software or other things that are running through the system?

正確的。聽起來你似乎正在考慮轉向攤銷前每股收益結構。我不知道你是否願意對此發表進一步的看法？就我們看到的攤銷而言，其中有多少是直接與交易相關的攤銷，而不是軟件或系統運行的其他東西的攤銷？

It's quasi exclusively relating to deals. And if you look at our peers today, we are the only one to have not adjusted for deal amortization in our EPS. So we are looking at that as a potential for next year, Jeff, but all deal related. And the Tyco Johnson Controls merger will be the lion's share of this amortization.

它幾乎完全與交易有關。如果你看看我們今天的同行，我們是唯一一家沒有對每股收益中的交易攤銷進行調整的公司。所以我們將其視為明年的潛力，傑夫，但所有交易都與交易有關。泰科江森自控的合併將是這筆攤銷的最大份額。

Our next question will come from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to start off with how you're thinking about that sort of Slide 7 and the profit drivers from price cost and productivity benefits. So you're running very strong in productivity benefits in 2023. Maybe just remind us what's the incremental saving into 2024 that's left under the cost-out program? And then how quickly should we expect that big price cost tailwind to narrow towards parity next year?

也許只是想首先了解您如何看待此類 Slide 7 以及價格成本和生產力優勢帶來的利潤驅動因素。因此，您在 2023 年的生產力效益方面表現非常強勁。也許只是提醒我們，到 2024 年，成本削減計劃還剩下多少增量節省？那麼，我們應該預計明年巨大的價格成本順勢會以多快的速度縮小到平價呢？

So on productivity, we are far from being done. Our program that we announced about 2 years ago is going to end. We are well on track. We'll deliver about $340 million for FY '23 through SG&A and COGS, but much more is to come in terms of productivity, both impacting sales and G&A against standardization and driving functional excellence are going to be the drivers for this.

因此，在生產力方面，我們還遠未完成。我們大約兩年前宣布的計劃即將結束。我們一切順利。我們將通過 SG&A 和 COGS 在 23 財年交付約 3.4 億美元，但在生產力方面，我們還將實現更多目標，影響銷售和 G&A 標準化以及推動功能卓越將成為這一目標的驅動力。

Price cost, George mentioned it, we are very bullish about the value proposition of offering either through solution and in claim services, but also to the product portfolio where we have a strong in commercial sustainability offering. So all of that should drive margin expansion through G&A, scaling gross margin and price cost.

價格成本，喬治提到，我們非常看好通過解決方案和索賠服務提供的價值主張，而且也看好我們在商業可持續發展方面擁有強大實力的產品組合。因此，所有這些都應該通過管理費用、毛利率和價格成本來推動利潤率的擴張。

And Julian, relative to just pure price when we're planning for '24, we see continued pricing now, certainly at a reduced level. But given the continued inflation and how we're booking that inflation into our backlog, we still see pricing playing out as we plan for '24.

Julian，相對於我們計劃 24 年時的純價格而言，我們現在看到定價仍在繼續，而且水平肯定有所下降。但考慮到持續的通貨膨脹以及我們如何將通貨膨脹記入我們的積壓訂單中，我們仍然認為定價會按照我們 24 年的計劃進行。

That's helpful. And then -- I guess, my second question on the top line. So looking at Slide 12, you have the 4% install orders growth in North America and EMEALA in the third quarter. Just wondered, given the sort of the macro data out there, dodge start square footage and so on and interest rates, do you think those install order numbers decelerate from that 4% in the two regions? Or they can sort of hold the line when you look out?

這很有幫助。然後——我想，這是我在第一行的第二個問題。從幻燈片 12 可以看出，第三季度北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的安裝訂單增長了 4%。只是想知道，考慮到宏觀數據的類型、迴避起始面積等以及利率，您認為這兩個地區的安裝訂單數量是否會從 4% 下降？或者當你向外看時，他們可以堅守陣地？

Yes. So when you look at our go-to-market, and we look at this very closely on a weekly, monthly basis. When you look at our pipeline, our pipeline is continuing to grow. And so as we look at whether it be domain by domain or as we look at our building solutions now addressing these secular trends, we're building a very strong pipeline.

是的。因此，當您查看我們的市場投放時，我們每週、每月都會非常仔細地關注這一點。當您查看我們的管道時，我們的管道正在持續增長。因此，當我們逐個領域地審視它，或者當我們審視我們現在針對這些長期趨勢的構建解決方案時，我們正在建立一個非常強大的管道。

And on a run rate basis, as we project Q4, we still see very strong order growth in Q4. And so it is hard to dissect exactly from a vertical standpoint because we see pretty broad strength across, whether it be industrial, data centers. We talk about government. There's a lot of strength that we see here. And we're making sure that, from a go-to-market standpoint, we're going to be positioned to be able to capitalize on where the growth will occur. And then the value propositions that we have, as it relates to these secular trends, it really does tie to be able to create the most amount of value. And then in our solutions business really build an attractive service business from that.

從運行率來看，正如我們預計的第四季度一樣，我們仍然看到第四季度的訂單增長非常強勁。因此，很難從垂直角度進行準確剖析，因為我們看到了相當廣泛的優勢，無論是工業還是數據中心。我們談論政府。我們在這裡看到了很多力量。我們確保，從進入市場的角度來看，我們將能夠利用增長的機會。然後，我們擁有的價值主張，因為它與這些長期趨勢相關，它確實與能夠創造最大價值有關。然後在我們的解決方案業務中真正建立一個有吸引力的服務業務。

And so as I set up for '24, it's going to be critical here as we pace through the fourth quarter with the order rates to really set up a backlog because our Building Solutions business, at least from an install standpoint, is pretty predictable over the next 12 months. And that backlog continues to build, and our pipeline and conversion right now in Q4 suggests that that's going to continue at a very strong rate.

因此，當我為24 年做準備時，當我們在第四季度加快訂單率以真正建立積壓時，這將是至關重要的，因為我們的建築解決方案業務，至少從安裝的角度來看，是相當可預測的未來12個月。積壓訂單繼續增加，我們第四季度的管道和轉換錶明，這種情況將以非常強勁的速度繼續下去。

Next question will come from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase 提出。

Maybe just starting with the price cost dynamics in EMEALA specifically. So I know that segment is kind of lagging a bit with respect to execution of higher price backlog. Is the expectation that price/cost turns positive, could that happen in the fourth quarter? Or is that more of like a 2024 event?

也許只是從 EMEALA 的價格成本動態開始。因此，我知道該細分市場在執行較高價格積壓訂單方面有點滯後。價格/成本轉正的預期是否會在第四季度發生？或者這更像是 2024 年的活動？

So Nicole, if you look at EMEALA, there was nothing fundamentally different with this business, which will prevent us to reach a strong level of segment EBITA margin. What you have happening in EMEALA this quarter, and that's about 150 basis points of headwind in margin is two things, one, pension costs, and also FX in our business in Argentina.

所以 Nicole，如果你看看 EMEALA，你會發現這項業務沒有什麼本質上的不同，這將阻止我們達到較高的部門 EBITA 利潤率水平。本季度 EMEALA 發生的情況，即利潤率逆風約 150 個基點，有兩件事，一是養老金成本，二是我們在阿根廷業務中的外匯。

We have a strong business in Argentina in the -- in our subscriber business. So if you were to remove those, the margin in EMEALA would have increased by about 140 basis points in the quarter. You will have some of those impacts, again, in Q4 impacting EMEALA. But again, nothing structural in EMEALA.

我們在阿根廷的訂戶業務方面擁有強大的業務。因此，如果剔除這些因素，本季度 EMEALA 的利潤率將增加約 140 個基點。在第四季度，您將再次對歐洲、中東和非洲地區產生一些影響。但同樣，歐洲、中東和非洲地區沒有任何結構性的東西。

Nicole, when we look at the -- all the work we've done on the price cost over the last couple of years, especially in this inflationary environment, when you look at the margins in backlog in our EMEALA business are very strong going forward. And so it's a matter of just the timing of the conversion.

妮可，當我們看到過去幾年我們在價格成本方面所做的所有工作時，尤其是在這種通貨膨脹的環境下，當您看到我們的 EMEALA 業務積壓的利潤率非常強勁時。因此，這只是轉換時間的問題。

Got it. That's clear. And then just thinking about the overhang that you're seeing with gross product margin -- sorry, Global Products margins and very tough prior year comps. I guess how do you think about fiscal '24 from that perspective? Like do you see the potential to start expanding margins in this business again?

知道了。很清楚。然後想想你所看到的毛利率的懸殊——抱歉，全球產品利潤率和上一年的比較非常艱難。我想您從這個角度如何看待 24 財年？您是否認為該業務有再次開始擴大利潤的潛力？

The answer is absolutely yes. If you go back to the quarter we had because we are ramping the manufacturing of Applied. We wanted to be very competitive in lead time. We have a very competitive set of products. So as we are ramping manufacturing of lead time, we had an impact in conversion costs.

答案是肯定的。如果你回到我們那個季度，因為我們正在加大應用材料公司的製造力度。我們希望在交貨時間方面具有很強的競爭力。我們擁有一套非常有競爭力的產品。因此，當我們加快製造交貨時間時，我們對轉換成本產生了影響。

Again, as we have normalized for inventory, we have produced less that is impacting conversion cost as well. The combined impact of those two elements is a bit more than a point in the quarter, Nicole. And we believe that we will have some of that happening in Q4, but we see absolutely margin expansion happening in our Global Products business.

同樣，隨著我們對庫存進行標準化，我們的產量也減少了，這也影響了轉換成本。妮可，這兩個因素的綜合影響在本季度略高於一分。我們相信，我們將在第四季度發生一些事情，但我們看到我們的全球產品業務的絕對利潤率正在擴張。

Our next question will come from Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·斯奈德。

I wanted to follow up on the destock headwinds on the indirect side for resi, Fire & Safety. Can you just maybe quantify what that headwind means for fiscal Q4 organic growth in the guide? Like where would that 4% be if it wasn't for these headwinds?

我想跟進 Resi、消防和安全方面的間接去庫存逆風。您能否在指南中量化這種逆風對第四財季有機增長意味著什麼？如果沒有這些逆風，那 4% 會在哪裡？

I would say that, on the year, this impact is about 1% to 1.5%. And then you could do the math for also Q4. It's in the ballpark of 1% to 1.5% of full impact on the year.

我想說，就今年而言，這個影響大約是1%到1.5%。然後你也可以對第四季度進行數學計算。它大約佔全年全部影響的 1% 到 1.5%。

I appreciate that. And it sounds like from some of the prior commentary that you guys would expect this headwind to alleviate in the early part of fiscal '24. So obviously, that's a tailwind to the 4% organic guide for the fiscal fourth quarter. Are there any sort of negative offsets there? Are there -- is anything kind of getting worse from here as we try to build the organic bridge into next year?

我很感激。從之前的一些評論來看，你們預計這種逆風會在 24 財年初期得到緩解。顯然，這對第四財季 4% 的有機指導是有利的。那裡有任何負偏移嗎？當我們試圖建立通往明年的有機橋樑時，有沒有什麼事情會變得更糟？

So when you look at those businesses, and the Applied Fire & Security products we put through our Building Solutions business, and we're starting to see that's very strong and picking up and it's critical to our Building Solutions business as far as how we create value and ultimately, create service. So that is coming back nicely.

因此，當您查看這些業務以及我們通過建築解決方案業務推出的應用消防與安全產品時，我們開始看到它非常強大並且正在回升，就我們如何創建而言，這對我們的建築解決方案業務至關重要價值並最終創造服務。所以這一切都恢復得很好。

And then the -- on the indirect channel, where we see the pressure, the same has happened there relative to the timing of orders based on the reduced lead times. And so our assessment, based on the -- with the intimacy that we have with our distributors and the pulse that we have across the globe, that that's going to come back, that we're starting to see sequential improvement and then getting a baseline here that for '24, assuming the economic conditions are somewhat stable, we have been outperforming with our products and our new product launches and the like. So we're confident that we're going to -- that's going to come back, and we're going to be positioned to be able to pick that growth up as it adjusts.

然後，在間接渠道上，我們看到了壓力，相對於基於縮短的交貨時間的訂單時間，也發生了同樣的情況。因此，我們的評估基於——我們與經銷商的密切關係以及我們在全球範圍內的脈搏，這將會回來，我們開始看到連續的改進，然後獲得基線在這裡，對於24 年來說，假設經濟狀況有所穩定，我們的產品和新產品發布等方面的表現一直優於其他產品。因此，我們有信心，這種情況將會回來，而且我們將能夠在調整過程中實現增長。

Our next question will come from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將由 Gautam Khanna 和 TD Cowen 提出。

Wondering if you could comment on supply chain and your own lead times, manufacturing lead times? And whether you anticipate that will have any impact on orders? Just as lead times shrink, is there a risk of kind of an order -- less urgency to place orders that could show up in any given quarter? And if so, when would you expect that to be a potential factor, if at all?

想知道您是否可以對供應鍊和您自己的交貨時間、製造交貨時間發表評論？您預計這會對訂單產生影響嗎？正如交貨時間縮短一樣，是否存在某種訂單的風險 - 下訂單的緊迫性可能會在任何特定季度出現？如果是這樣，您預計什麼時候這會成為潛在因素（如果有的話）？

Well, Gautam, we've seen that. It's already been playing out here over the last -- really the last couple of quarters as it relates to our Global Products business because everyone -- as supply chain began to improve and lead times reduced, it allows our customers to be able to back off what they have to carry and still be able to deliver on their commitments. So that has been playing out.

好吧，高塔姆，我們已經看到了。它已經在這裡上演了過去 - 實際上是過去幾個季度，因為它與我們的全球產品業務有關，因為每個人 - 隨著供應鏈開始改善和交貨時間縮短，它使我們的客戶能夠退縮他們必須承擔並仍然能夠兌現承諾的東西。所以這已經上演了。

We think that there's still a little bit left here with resi going forward. Still a little bit more in the indirect Fire & Security. But we've already seen a lot of that impact on our book-to-bill business in -- over the last couple of quarters. So we're positioning here to get through that over the next quarter or 2, and then we'll be positioned to be able to build backlog and have conversion strong growth in '24.

我們認為，resi 的未來還剩下一點點。間接消防與安全方面還有更多內容。但在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經看到了這種對我們的訂單到賬單業務的巨大影響。因此，我們的定位是在下一個或兩個季度完成這一任務，然後我們將能夠建立積壓訂單並在 24 年實現轉化強勁增長。

Has there been any spillover effect to the direct channel, at least (inaudible) have come in?

直接渠道是否有任何溢出效應，至少（聽不清）已經出現？

No. On the direct channel, actually, because we ultimately -- from end to end, we're responsible for delivery to the customer. So whether it be even in our resi direct stores, we saw nice growth in our resi direct stores because we ultimately own the channel and we saw a nice pickup there. On the -- on our Building Solutions business, as far as the predictability of our projects and how we're converting, we're very tight relative to what is going to be consumed and how we're going to deploy it to the field.

不。實際上，在直接渠道上，因為我們最終——從頭到尾，負責交付給客戶。因此，無論是在我們的 Resi 直營店中，我們都看到了 Resi 直營店的良好增長，因為我們最終擁有該渠道，並且我們在那裡看到了不錯的提貨。在我們的建築解決方案業務上，就我們項目的可預測性以及我們如何轉換而言，我們對將要消耗的內容以及如何將其部署到現場非常嚴格。

And George said that earlier, Gautam, the order rate for the Building Solutions business is very strong in Q4.

George 表示，Gautam，早些時候，建築解決方案業務的訂單率在第四季度非常強勁。

Last question will come from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

最後一個問題將由美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓提出。

Can you guys hear me?

你們能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can, Andrew.

是的，我們可以，安德魯。

Yes. So as we think about these semi fabs and EV plants, I think Eaton was kind enough to give a sort of range for average content per plant. Could you guys just sort of do something similar? How big a unit goes on average into one of these, so we can just sort of size the opportunity? And then the part 2, when do you guys actually book these projects in your backlog formally, right? At what stage? Is it a year into construction? Just trying to sort of follow up on your commentary, how you should start booking more equipment eventually, but just trying to size the timing and scope of this into '24?

是的。因此，當我們考慮這些半晶圓廠和電動汽車工廠時，我認為伊頓很友善地給出了每個工廠平均含量的範圍。你們能做一些類似的事情嗎？其中一個平均有多大的單位，所以我們可以對機會進行排序？然後是第 2 部分，你們什麼時候真正在待辦事項中正式預訂這些項目，對嗎？在什麼階段？建設已經一年了？只是想跟進您的評論，您最終應該如何開始預訂更多設備，但只是想將其時間和範圍調整到“24”？

Let me talk about the -- on the front end of the demand. And so what you've seen over the last couple of years, we have been very aggressive, not only with the development of our product portfolio, but also our capacity to be able to serve the market. And if you look at our orders in Applied, we have been getting more than our fair share. We believe that market share-wise, we're up a number of points here on a year-on-year basis.

我先說一下前端的需求。因此，您在過去幾年中看到，我們非常積極，不僅在產品組合的開發方面，而且在我們服務市場的能力方面也如此。如果你看看我們在應用材料公司的訂單，就會發現我們獲得的份額已經超出了我們應有的份額。我們相信，就市場份額而言，我們同比上升了很多點。

We've been building backlog in our Applied equipment. And we can follow up and get you an average size. But right now, because of the expansion, we've more than doubled our capacity. And so -- and we're pacing with full utilization of that capacity. So we're ultimately making sure that we're going to be positioned with the demand.

我們的應用材料公司的設備一直在積壓。我們可以跟進並為您提供平均尺寸。但現在，由於擴張，我們的產能增加了一倍多。因此，我們正在努力充分利用該能力。因此，我們最終要確保我們能夠滿足需求。

And that, from a lead time standpoint, that's been very important to be able to then be able to respond and be able to create the value with our offering and then be able to then convert on time, to be able to capitalize on the demand. Some of these projects are -- they are -- they can be over a year.

從交貨時間的角度來看，能夠做出響應並能夠通過我們的產品創造價值，然後能夠及時轉換，能夠利用需求，這一點非常重要。其中一些項目可能會持續一年以上。

But a lot of the -- there are now a lot of projects coming into the market that cycle time matters, and you can create a lot of value because you have a shorter lead time, where we have orders that we're taking on now that we're going to deliver next year in '24.

但是現在有很多項目進入市場，週期時間很重要，你可以創造很多價值，因為你的交貨時間更短，我們現在正在接受訂單我們將在明年 '24 交付。

And so from a positioning in the market, we have positioned ourselves to get a very strong order book in our Applied business. And that is a core strength of ours across the globe. And it relates to what you said, EV plants, data centers, the chip manufacturing plants and the like.

因此，從市場定位來看，我們的應用業務訂單量非常強勁。這是我們在全球的核心優勢。這涉及到你所說的電動汽車工廠、數據中心、芯片製造工廠等。

And so, on the average side, you can imagine, when you get these large data center customers, they have very large installations and have multiple pieces of equipment that are deployed to be able to support the capacity that they're building.

因此，從平均角度來看，您可以想像，當您獲得這些大型數據中心客戶時，他們擁有非常大的安裝，並且部署了多台設備來支持他們正在建設的容量。

An additional color, Andrew. We mentioned that earlier, the stimulus we have had in the U.S. or in Europe, so the IRA or the equivalent stimulus in Europe have not impacted demand so far. So we believe that those trends we are starting to see are going to be maintained. And last one, we book an order when we received a signed firm contract, Andrew.

另一種顏色，安德魯。我們之前提到過，我們在美國或歐洲採取的刺激措施，因此愛爾蘭共和軍或歐洲的類似刺激措施到目前為止尚未影響需求。因此，我們相信我們開始看到的這些趨勢將得到維持。最後一個，當我們收到一份已簽署的確定合同時，我們就預訂了訂單，安德魯。

Got you. And -- okay. And just a follow-up question on supply chain. Are you seeing any ability? As some companies are talking about disinflation or even deflation, are you finally getting back ability to extract pricing concessions from your supply chain into '24?

明白你了。而且——好吧。這只是一個關於供應鏈的後續問題。你看出什麼能力了嗎？當一些公司正在談論通貨緊縮甚至通貨緊縮時，您是否終於恢復了在 24 世紀從供應鏈中獲取價格優惠的能力？

We've always said, when you look at our procurement organization, the work that they, do even through this period of time, we've been strategically sourcing and making sure we're leveraging our scale and demand to drive productivity, drive savings to try to offset some of the inflationary pressures on the commodities and the like. So our team has done a really nice job through the cycle to do that.

我們總是說，當你看看我們的採購組織，他們在這段時間所做的工作時，我們一直在戰略性地進行採購，並確保我們利用我們的規模和需求來提高生產力，節省開支試圖抵消大宗商品等的部分通脹壓力。因此，我們的團隊在整個週期中做得非常出色。

And the answer is, of course, yes. I mean we're now planning for continued strong productivity with our scale, with our buy, making sure that we're positioned at the lowest cost, with the leverage of our overall volumes that gives us a competitive advantage. When you look at our product cost or all of our costs within our cost of goods.

答案當然是肯定的。我的意思是，我們現在正在計劃通過我們的規模和購買來持續保持強勁的生產力，確保我們處於最低成本的地位，並利用我們的總產量為我們帶來競爭優勢。當您查看我們的產品成本或我們的商品成本內的所有成本時。

So on that, I want to close the call. I want to thank everyone for joining us this morning and certainly, your continued interest in Johnson Controls. I do believe we're at the beginning of an era. It will be defined by deep decarbonization and sustainability. And we are, as Johnson Controls, well positioned to be an important contributor to empowering our customers in every industry to create healthy, safe spaces for the -- for people in the planet.

因此，我想結束通話。我要感謝大家今天早上加入我們，當然還要感謝你們對江森自控的持續關注。我確實相信我們正處於一個時代的開始。它將由深度脫碳和可持續性來定義。作為江森自控，我們有能力成為重要的貢獻者，幫助各行業的客戶為地球上的人們創造健康、安全的空間。

And I think our strategy is clear. It's playing out. We have a strong portfolio, and now it's just about continued execution. So with that, operator, that concludes our call today.

我認為我們的戰略很明確。正在上演。我們擁有強大的產品組合，現在只需要持續執行即可。接線員，我們今天的通話就到此結束。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。