江森自控 (JCI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Johnson Controls Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加江森自控 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁吉姆·盧卡斯 (Jim Lucas)。請繼續。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls' Fourth Quarter fiscal 2023 Results. The press release and all related tables that were issued earlier this morning as well as the conference call slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at johnsoncontrols.com. Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, George Oliver; and Chief Financial Officer, Olivier Leonetti.

早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論江森自控 2023 財年第四季業績。今天早上早些時候發布的新聞稿和所有相關表格以及電話會議幻燈片演示可以在我們網站 johnsoncontrols.com 的投資者關係部分找到。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是江森自控董事長兼執行長喬治‧奧利佛 (George Oliver)；兼財務長奧利維爾·萊昂內蒂 (Olivier Leonetti)。

Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Johnson Controls. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors and cautionary statements in our most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's release.

在開始之前，讓我提醒您，在今天的演示中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。請聽眾注意，這些陳述存在一定的風險和不確定性，其中許多風險和不確定性難以預測，並且通常超出了江森自控的控制範圍。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期有重大差異。我們建議聽眾仔細查看我們最新的表格 10-Q、表格 10-K 和今天發布的風險因素和警告聲明。

We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are contained in the schedules attached to our press release and in the appendix to this presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Johnson Controls' website.

我們也將參考某些非公認會計原則措施。這些非公認會計原則衡量標準與最直接可比較的公認會計原則衡量標準的調節包含在我們新聞稿所附的時間表和本簡報的附錄中，兩者都可以在江森自控網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I will now turn the call over to George.

我現在會把電話轉給喬治。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today. Before discussing our fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 results, I wanted to take a moment to thank all of our employees for their quick agile response to the cyber incident beginning in the last week of September. Our teams responded quickly and worked diligently to minimize the impact from the incident. We greatly appreciate everyone's patience from customers to suppliers, to shareholders as we work through our remediation efforts. We now have the incident behind us and our operations are back to normal.

謝謝吉姆，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。在討論我們第四季度和 2023 財年業績之前，我想花點時間感謝我們所有員工對 9 月最後一周開始的網路事件做出的快速敏捷反應。我們的團隊迅速做出反應並努力工作，以最大程度地減少事件的影響。我們非常感謝從客戶到供應商再到股東在我們進行補救工作時所表現出的耐心。現在，事件已經過去，我們的營運已恢復正常。

Now let's begin with Slide 3. We feel it is important to not lose sight of the strong year we had in fiscal 2023, regardless of the impact on our fourth quarter results from the cyber incident. For the full year, we grew sales organically 8%, expanded segment margins 80 basis points to 15% and delivered adjusted EPS growth of 17%. We saw continued strength in our service business as our efforts in maximizing our large installed base are coming to fruition. In fact, we grew service 10% for the year with solid order momentum ending the fiscal year. Our total backlog grew 9% to $12.1 billion as demand remains strong across our Commercial Building Solutions offerings. In fiscal 2023, we generated $1.8 billion in free cash flow which represented 76% conversion. During the year, we returned $1.6 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.

現在讓我們從投影片 3 開始。我們認為，無論網路事件對我們第四季業績的影響如何，都不要忽視 2023 財年的強勁表現，這一點很重要。全年銷售額有機成長 8%，部門利潤率擴大 80 個基點至 15%，調整後每股盈餘成長 17%。隨著我們最大限度地擴大我們龐大的安裝基礎的努力正在取得成果，我們看到我們的服務業務持續強勁。事實上，我們今年的服務成長了 10%，並且在本財年結束時訂單勢頭強勁。由於我們的商業建築解決方案產品的需求仍然強勁，我們的積壓總額增加了 9%，達到 121 億美元。 2023 財年，我們產生了 18 億美元的自由現金流，轉換率為 76%。年內，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 16 億美元。

Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, targeting to return 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We have the highest conviction ever in our strategy to lead in Building Solutions, and we'll continue to prioritize allocating capital accordingly toward that objective.

我們的資本配置策略維持不變，目標是透過股利和股票回購將100%的自由現金流返還給股東。我們對引領建築解決方案的策略抱持最高的信念，並且我們將繼續優先考慮相應地分配資本以實現這一目標。

Overall, we are pleased with our continued execution despite macro-driven headwinds over the fiscal year and believe that we are well positioned heading into fiscal 2024 with our strong backlog and resilient service business. We're initiating guidance for fiscal 2024 for approximately mid-single-digit sales and adjusted EPS growth, respectively, and for free cash flow conversion of approximately 85%. Olivier will provide additional color on the guidance later in the call, but fiscal 2024 will show improvement following a seasonally slower first quarter.

總體而言，儘管本財年面臨宏觀驅動的不利因素，但我們對我們的持續執行感到滿意，並相信憑藉我們強勁的積壓和富有彈性的服務業務，我們在進入 2024 財年時處於有利地位。我們正在啟動 2024 財年銷售額和調整後每股收益成長約為中個位數的指導，自由現金流轉換約為 85%。 Olivier 將在稍後的電話會議中對指引提供更多說明，但在第一季季節性放緩之後，2024 財年將出現改善。

Now turning to Slide 4. Demand for our Building Solutions is accelerating with our customers around the globe as we are developing applied solutions to deliver outcomes that save energy and reduce emissions while improving the overall occupant experience. We are able to achieve these outcomes not only through our leading domain expertise and applied HVAC & Controls solutions, but also through world-class fire detection and protection and smart security solutions enabled by an industry-leading digital platform, OpenBlue, all of our systems build on each other in our complementary components of our total solutions offering.

現在轉向投影片 4。全球客戶對我們的建築解決方案的需求正在加速成長，因為我們正在開發應用解決方案，以提供節能和減少排放的成果，同時改善整體居住者體驗。我們不僅能夠透過領先的領域專業知識和應用的 HVAC 與控制解決方案實現這些成果，而且還透過業界領先的數位平台 OpenBlue、我們所有系統支援的世界一流的火災偵測和防護以及智慧安全解決方案在我們的整體解決方案中，我們的互補元件相互建構。

The journey starts with our customer as we design, digitize and deploy solutions that achieve efficiency, sustainability and decarbonization. This turnkey offering drives operations, service and maintenance, which underpin our as-a-service offerings that make buildings smarter through our digital solutions. This helps our customers enable peak operating conditions, protect investments and achieve the lowest life cycle cost. Johnson Controls is unique with our value proposition to make buildings smarter through OpenBlue.

這個旅程從我們的客戶開始，我們設計、數位化和部署實現效率、永續性和脫碳的解決方案。這種交鑰匙產品可推動營運、服務和維護，從而支撐我們的即服務產品，透過我們的數位解決方案使建築物變得更加智慧。這有助於我們的客戶實現尖峰運作條件、保護投資並實現最低的生命週期成本。江森自控的獨特價值主張是透過 OpenBlue 讓建築變得更加智慧。

Our comprehensive ecosystem of connected digital solutions for buildings can break down silos and connect building systems regardless of equipment OEM and make them interoperable to build resiliency and efficiency. We were honored recently to be ranked #2 on the Guidehouse Insights leaderboard in an assessment of leading energy service companies. The recognition underscores our commitment to excellence and sustainability on a global scale. It is a testament to our hard work and continued commitment to helping clients meet their sustainability goals.

我們面向建築的互聯數位解決方案的綜合生態系統可以打破孤島並連接建築系統，無論設備 OEM 為何，並使它們可互通以建立彈性和效率。最近，我們很榮幸在 Guidehouse Insights 對領先能源服務公司的評估中排名第二。這項認可凸顯了我們在全球範圍內追求卓越和永續發展的承諾。這證明了我們的辛勤工作和持續致力於幫助客戶實現永續發展目標。

Moving on to Slide 5. Fiscal 2023 saw continued strength in install orders, which creates a strong service opportunity over the life of the equipment. As we advance our digital strategy, including more than doubling our connected assets during the fiscal year, we are gathering more intelligence through data. This data allows us to better segment customer needs and create more proactive offerings across all of our domains, effectively utilizing our industry-leading service organization of over 20,000 professionals that make over 5.5 million visits annually. With our large installed base, improved operations and strong pipeline, we see a long runway of continued growth for our service business.

轉到投影片 5。2023 財年安裝訂單持續強勁，這在設備的使用壽命內創造了強大的服務機會。隨著我們推動數位化策略，包括在本財年將互聯資產增加一倍以上，我們正​​在透過數據收集更多情報。這些數據使我們能夠更好地細分客戶需求，並在我們的所有領域創造更主動的產品，有效地利用我們由20,000 多名專業人員組成的行業領先的服務組織，每年的訪問量超過550 萬次。憑藉我們龐大的安裝基礎、改進的營運和強大的管道，我們看到我們的服務業務持續成長的漫長道路。

Turning to Slide 6. Our value creation framework remains unchanged. We truly believe we are well positioned to drive continued growth, delivering solutions across sustainable and healthy buildings, while leveraging the increased adoption of OpenBlue to drive margin expansion. Our pipeline remains strong in our longer-cycle Building Solutions business as we continue to realize top line growth. Our shorter-cycle businesses in Global Products, primarily global residential HVAC and parts of Fire & Security are stabilizing as the new fiscal year progresses.

轉向投影片 6。我們的價值創造框架保持不變。我們堅信，我們有能力推動持續成長，為永續和健康的建築提供解決方案，同時利用 OpenBlue 的廣泛採用來推動利潤成長。隨著我們繼續實現營收成長，我們的長週期建築解決方案業務的管道仍然強勁。隨著新財年的進展，我們全球產品的短週期業務（主要是全球住宅暖通空調以及部分消防與安全）正在趨於穩定。

Converting our strong top line growth into improved margins and cash flow is our top priority. We are beginning to see our gross margins improve as supply chain disruptions continue to lessen. Within Building Solutions, we are also seeing stronger margins in our record backlog and as service continues to accelerate, we should see favorable mix as well. Cash flow is a key area of focus for us. On the receivables front, we are making progress in improving the longer collection cycle historically associated with our installed business. Inventories in our short-cycle businesses continue to reduce as lead times normalize, and we are adding capacity to meet the strong demand in our applied HVAC business. As you can see, we are very excited about the opportunity ahead.

將強勁的營收成長轉化為利潤率和現金流的提高是我們的首要任務。隨著供應鏈中斷的持續減少，我們開始看到我們的毛利率有所改善。在建築解決方案領域，我們也看到創紀錄的積壓訂單帶來了更高的利潤，隨著服務的不斷加速，我們也應該看到有利的組合。現金流是我們關注的關鍵領域。在應收帳款方面，我們在改善歷史上與我們的安裝業務相關的較長收款週期方面取得了進展。隨著交貨時間正常化，我們的短週期業務的庫存繼續減少，並且我們正在增加產能以滿足應用暖通空調業務的強勁需求。正如您所看到的，我們對未來的機會感到非常興奮。

I will now turn the call over to Olivier to go through the financial details of the quarter. Olivier?

我現在將把電話轉給奧利維爾，以了解本季的財務細節。奧利維爾？

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the summary on Slide 7. Total sales grew 3% to $6.9 billion, while organic sales increased 2% with another strong quarter from our service business, which grew 9% organically. The cyber incident was a 1% headwind in the quarter. Adjusted segment EBITDA was flat year-over-year with margins declining 50 basis points to 16%. Price/cost was positive, and we delivered strong productivity savings achieving our $340 million target for the year.

謝謝喬治，大家早安。讓我從幻燈片 7 上的摘要開始。總銷售額增長 3%，達到 69 億美元，而有機銷售額增長 2%，服務業務又一個強勁的季度，有機增長 9%。網路事件是本季 1% 的不利因素。調整後分部 EBITDA 與去年同期持平，利潤率下降 50 個基點至 16%。價格/成本為正值，我們實現了大幅生產力節省，實現了今年 3.4 億美元的目標。

Turning to our EPS bridge on Slide 8. Adjusted EPS of $1.05 increased 6% year-over-year and include a $0.04 headwind from the cyber incident. Operations contributed $0.03 of the growth in the quarter, benefiting from positive price/cost and our ongoing SG&A and COGS actions. Below the line, we saw favorability from noncontrolling interest and a lower share count.

轉向幻燈片 8 上的 EPS 橋樑。調整後 EPS 為 1.05 美元，年增 6%，其中包括網路事件帶來的 0.04 美元阻力。受益於積極的價格/成本以及我們持續的銷售、管理和行政費用 (SG&A) 和銷貨成本 (COGS) 行動，營運為本季度的成長貢獻了 0.03 美元。在線下，我們看到了非控股權益和較少股份數量的青睞。

Let's now discuss our segment results in more detail on Slides 9 through 12. Beginning on Slide 9. Organic sales in our shorter-cycle Global Products business, excluding the 2% headwind from the cyber incident were flat year-over-year with price upsetting a decline in volume. Global Products saw continued strength in Commercial HVAC, which grew high single digits after growing mid-teens in the comparable period 1 year ago. Demand remained strong and our leading position in Commercial HVAC was further extended in fiscal 2023. Client security declined low single digits as inventory further rebalanced as lead times improved materially year-over-year. Industrial Refrigeration had another strong quarter, growing over 45% driven by EMEALA. Global residential decline high-teens, driven by a greater than 30% decline in North America and a high single-digit decline in rest of world.

現在，讓我們在幻燈片9 到幻燈片12 上更詳細地討論我們的部門業績。從幻燈片9 開始。排除網絡事件帶來的2% 阻力，我們的短期全球產品業務的有機銷售額同比持平，價格下跌成交量下降。 Global Products 在商業暖通空調領域持續走強，在一年前同期成長了十幾位數之後，該領域出現了高個位數成長。需求仍然強勁，我們在商業暖通空調領域的領先地位在 2023 財年進一步擴大。隨著交貨時間同比大幅改善，庫存進一步重新平衡，客戶安全性下降了個位數。工業冷凍季度表現強勁，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區 (EMEALA) 的推動下成長了 45% 以上。由於北美下降超過 30%，全球其他地區下降幅度高達個位數，全球住宅下降幅度高達十位數。

North America faced challenging year-over-year comparisons as we were still working out of a backlog from last fiscal year. In Europe, the (inaudible) market overall experienced lower growth than anticipated. As our book-to-bill business begins to normalize with improved lead times, our global products, third-party backlog decreased from the prior year to $2.5 billion and remained flat sequentially. Adjusted segment EBITDA margins declined 85 basis points against a tough comparison to 21% as continued weakness in global residential offset positive price cost and productivity savings. One of the biggest factor impacting our Global Products margin performance is due to lower absorption costs in global residential business.

北美面臨著具有挑戰性的同比比較，因為我們仍在處理上一財年的積壓訂單。在歐洲，（聽不清楚）市場整體成長低於預期。隨著我們的訂單到帳單業務開始正常化並縮短交貨時間，我們的全球產品、第三方積壓訂單從上一年減少至 25 億美元，並與上一季持平。調整後的部門 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 85 個基點，相比之下為 21%，這是因為全球住宅市場的持續疲軟抵消了積極的價格成本和生產力節省。影響我們全球產品利潤率表現的最大因素之一是全球住宅業務吸收成本較低。

Moving to Slide 11 to discuss our Building Solutions performance. Order momentum remained strong with 9% growth. Service orders grew 7% in the quarter and 11% for the full year as our transformation into a service-led organization gains momentum. Install orders increased 10%, led by double-digit orders in North America and EMEALA. Organic sales grew 5%, driven by strong growth in service of 9%. In-store grew 2% organically against a tough comparison. The cyber incident was a 1% headwind in the quarter.

轉到投影片 11，討論我們的建築解決方案效能。訂單動能依然強勁，成長 9%。隨著我們向服務主導型組織的轉型勢頭強勁，本季服務訂單成長了 7%，全年服務訂單成長了 11%。安裝訂單成長了 10%，其中北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的訂單量兩位數成長。在服務強勁成長 9% 的推動下，有機銷售額成長 5%。與嚴格的比較相比，店內有機增長了 2%。網路事件是本季 1% 的不利因素。

Adjusted segment EBITDA increased 5%, while margins declined 10 basis points as a higher mix of equipment installations and weakness in China offset positive price/cost and savings from productivity initiatives. Strong equipment sales are an important contributor to future higher-margin recurring service revenue. Building Solutions backlog remains at record levels, growing 9% to $12.1 billion. Service backlog increased 12% and installed backlog grew 8% year-over-year.

調整後的部門 EBITDA 成長了 5%，而利潤率下降了 10 個基點，因為設備安裝組合的增加和中國市場的疲軟抵消了積極的價格/成本和生產力舉措帶來的節省。強勁的設備銷售是未來利潤率較高的經常性服務收入的重要貢獻者。建築解決方案積壓訂單仍處於創紀錄水平，成長 9%，達到 121 億美元。服務積壓量較去年同期成長 12%，安裝積壓量較去年同期成長 8%。

Let's discuss the Building Solutions performance by region on Slide 12. Orders in North America increased 8% with continued strength across our HVAC & Controls platform, up over 20% year-over-year. Overall, there was robust demand in our office, data center, health care, government and manufacturing sectors. Install orders increased 11% year-over-year with solid growth in new construction. Sales in North America were up 8% organically with broad-based growth across the portfolio. Our installed business grew 9% with continued momentum in new construction, up 25% year-over-year. Organic sales in service grew 7% in the quarter and 8% for the full year, driven by a strong performance across our shorter-term transactional business which is the direct result of having a large customer base.

讓我們在幻燈片 12 上按地區討論建築解決方案的表現。隨著我們的 HVAC 和控制平台的持續強勁，北美的訂單增長了 8%，同比增長超過 20%。整體而言，我們的辦公室、資料中心、醫療保健、政府和製造部門的需求強勁。安裝訂單年增 11%，新建工程穩定成長。北美銷售額有機成長 8%，整個產品組合廣泛成長。我們的安裝業務成長了 9%，新建築業務持續保持成長勢頭，較去年同期成長 25%。在短期交易業務強勁表現的推動下，服務有機銷售額本季成長 7%，全年成長 8%，而短期交易業務的強勁表現是擁有龐大客戶群的直接結果。

Sales across our HVAC & Controls platform grew high teens year-over-year, while Fire & Security was flat. Segment margins expanded 70 basis points year-over-year to 15.4%, driven by ongoing productivity benefits, the continued execution of higher-margin backlog and strength in our higher-margin service business. Total backlog ended the quarter at $8.3 billion, up 10% year-over-year. In EMEALA, orders were up 6% with solid contributions of 16% growth from both served and in store.

我們的暖通空調和控制平台的銷售額年增十幾歲，而消防和安全則持平。由於持續的生產力效益、高利潤積壓訂單的持續執行以及高利潤服務業務的實力，該部門利潤率同比增長 70 個基點至 15.4%。本季末未完成訂單總額為 83 億美元，年增 10%。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，訂單量增加了 6%，其中服務和店內訂單均增加了 16%。

Demand in commercial remained strong, growing 50% year-over-year driven by HVAC and security as the decarbonization efforts in Europe continue to gain momentum, our offerings in Industrial Refrigeration and HVAC & Controls increased orders by over 20% across the industrial sector. By region, other growth was broad-based. Sales in EMEALA grew 3% organically, led by mid-teen growth in service with double-digit growth from both our recurring contracts and our shorter cycle transactional business. Applied Commercial HVAC and Fire & Security grew low single digits within the quarter.

商業需求仍然強勁，在暖通空調和安全的推動下，年增50%。隨著歐洲脫碳努力繼續取得勢頭，我們在工業製冷和暖通空調及控制領域的產品使整個工業領域的訂單增加了20% 以上。按地區劃分，其他成長基礎廣泛。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額有機成長了 3%，這得益於我們的經常性合約和較短週期交易業務帶來的兩位數成長的服務成長。應用商業暖通空調和消防與安全業務在本季實現低個位數成長。

Segment EBITA margins declined 160 basis points to 7.8%, driven primarily by execution of lower margin jobs within the backlog. Backlog was up 10% year-over-year to $2.3 billion. In Asia Pacific, orders grew 3% driven by double-digit growth in service with healthy growth across our HVAC & Controls platform. Overall, we saw strong demand in the institutional sector growing over 30%. Sales in Asia Pacific declined 6% as the installation business was impacted primarily by weakness in China.

部門 EBITA 利潤率下降 160 個基點至 7.8%，主要是由於積壓訂單中利潤率較低的工作的執行。積壓訂單年增 10%，達到 23 億美元。在亞太地區，在服務兩位數成長以及我們的暖通空調和控制平台健康成長的推動下，訂單增加了 3%。總體而言，我們看到機構部門的強勁需求成長了 30% 以上。由於安裝業務主要受到中國市場疲軟的影響，亞太地區的銷售額下降了 6%。

Our service business continued the momentum of double-digit growth, increasing 11% in the quarter and 14% for the full year. Overall, Fire & Security grew mid-single digits, while HVAC & Controls declined high single digits. Segment EBITDA margins declined 50 basis points to 13.5% as weakness in China offset ongoing productivity savings and positive price/cost. Backlog of $1.5 billion is flat year-over-year.

我們的服務業務持續保持兩位數成長勢頭，季度增長11%，全年增長14%。整體而言，消防與安全業務實現中個位數成長，而暖通空調與控制業務則出現高個位數下降。由於中國的疲軟抵消了持續的生產力節省和積極的價格/成本，該部門的 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 50 個基點至 13.5%。積壓金額為 15 億美元，與去年同期持平。

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 13. We ended the fourth quarter with approximately $800 million in available cash and net debt declined to 1.9x, which is lower than our long-term target range of 2 to 2.5x. As George mentioned, during 2023, we returned $1.6 billion to our shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. Our free cash flow conversion of 76% was better than our updated guidance. On the working capital front, our receivable collection has extended as our installation business critical to generate our service business has grown.

轉向投影片 13 上的資產負債表和現金流。第四季結束時，我們的可用現金約為 8 億美元，淨債務下降至 1.9 倍，低於我們 2 至 2.5 倍的長期目標範圍。正如喬治所提到的，2023 年期間，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 16 億美元。我們的自由現金流轉換率為 76%，優於我們最新的指導。在營運資金方面，隨著我們對產生服務業務至關重要的安裝業務的成長，我們的應收帳款催收有所擴大。

We are making structural changes such as more upfront payments to improve our cash collection cycle in the installation business. While inventories remain elevated versus historical levels, primarily due to the challenges in our global residential businesses we saw overall inventories improved 5 days sequentially in the fourth quarter. We anticipate further improvement entering fiscal 2024. We have the fundamentals in place to be a 100% cash conversion company over time. However, continued growth investments and some further restructuring in fiscal 2024 will be headwinds in the fiscal year.

我們正在進行結構性改革，例如增加預付款，以改善安裝業務的現金收款週期。儘管庫存仍高於歷史水平，主要是由於我們全球住宅業務面臨的挑戰，但我們看到第四季度整體庫存較上季改善了 5 天。我們預計進入 2024 財年將進一步改善。隨著時間的推移，我們已具備成為 100% 現金轉換公司的基礎。然而，持續成長的投資和 2024 財年的一些進一步重組將成為本財年的阻力。

Now let's discuss our first quarter and fiscal 2024 guidance on Slide 14. We are entering fiscal year 2024 with a backlog at historical levels, strong momentum in our industry-leading service business and broad-based demand across end markets. When producing first quarter sales guidance of approximately flat year-over-year as we return to normalized seasonality.

現在，讓我們在投影片 14 上討論我們的第一季和 2024 財年指引。我們即將進入 2024 財年，積壓訂單達到歷史水平，業界領先的服務業務勢頭強勁，終端市場需求廣泛。隨著我們回歸正常化的季節性，第一季的銷售指引與去年同期大致持平。

Our forecast includes a roughly 1% headwind from the cyber incident as well as continued weakness anticipated in China. We expect Building Solutions momentum to continue, led by our resilient service business. Global Products faces a tough year-over-year comparison as we were working through elevated backlogs in the comparable quarter last year, especially in residential HVAC and certain Fire & Security and direct channels.

我們的預測包括網路事件帶來的約 1% 的阻力以及中國的持續疲軟。我們預計，在我們的彈性服務業務的引領下，建築解決方案的勢頭將繼續下去。全球產品面臨嚴峻的年比比較，因為我們去年同期的積壓量增加，特別是在住宅暖通空調、某些消防與安全和直接管道方面。

For the first quarter, we expect segment EBITA margin to be approximately 13% and adjusted EPS to be in the range of $0.48 to $0.50. We're expecting a slower start of the year as we return to more normalized seasonality, incurred a negative impact from the cyber incident and anticipate continued weakness in China. For the full year, we anticipate Global Products to stabilize in the second half of 2024 as backlog continues to normalize and Building Solutions converts its higher-margin backlog.

對於第一季度，我們預計分部 EBITA 利潤率約為 13%，調整後每股收益將在 0.48 美元至 0.50 美元之間。我們預計今年開局會放緩，因為我們將回歸更正常的季節性，受到網路事件的負面影響，並預計中國將持續疲軟。就全年而言，隨著積壓訂單繼續正常化以及建築解決方案轉換其利潤率較高的積壓訂單，我們預計全球產品將在 2024 年下半年趨於穩定。

We expect organic sales to grow approximately mid-single digits with Building Solutions leading the growth, particularly in service. Segment EBITA margins, I expect that to expand approximately 25 basis points or greater as price/cost remains positive and mix improved throughout the year. Adjusted EPS should be in the range of approximately $3.65 to $3.80, representing growth of 4% to 9% year-over-year. For the first quarter, we anticipate our normal seasonal cash usage with incremental impact from the cyber incident. We expect free cash flow conversion to be 85% for the full year. Our results and guidance reflect great progress advancing our service strategy enabled by digital, momentum in our commercial products offering and we enter fiscal 2024 with strong order momentum and record backlog in our longer-cycle Building Solutions business.

我們預計有機銷售額將成長約中個位數，建築解決方案將引領成長，尤其是在服務領域。由於價格/成本保持正值且全年結構改善，我預計該部門的 EBITA 利潤率將擴大約 25 個基點或更高。調整後每股收益應約為 3.65 美元至 3.80 美元，年增 4% 至 9%。對於第一季度，我們預計正常的季節性現金使用量將受到網路事件的增量影響。我們預計全年自由現金流轉換率為 85%。我們的業績和指導反映了我們在數位化、商業產品供應勢頭推動的服務策略方面取得了巨大進展，進入 2024 財年，我們的長週期建築解決方案業務的訂單勢頭強勁，積壓創紀錄。

With that, operator, open up the lines for questions.

這樣，操作員就可以打開提問線。

(Operator Instructions) And today's first question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自Vertical Research 的Jeff Sprague。

Maybe we could just touch on cash flow a bit more. A, how much kind of recovery from the cyber incident, do you kind of expect embedded in this 85% in 2024? And then also just -- it seems peculiar, Olivier. Your net financial charges are going up to $420 million per your guide versus $280 million last year. Is there something going on in the factoring or something else in kind of the capital structure that would explain that sort of delta year-over-year?

也許我們可以多談談現金流。 A，您預計到 2024 年，網路事件的恢復程度會達到 85%？還有——這看起來很奇怪，奧利維爾。根據您的指南，您的淨財務費用將高達 4.2 億美元，而去年為 2.8 億美元。保理業務或資本結構中是否存在某種情況可以解釋這種逐年增量？

Thank you for your question, Jeff. Regarding the free cash flow, we had an impact in the first quarter, which we believe will be about $200 million. If you look at the guide for '24 at 85%, that includes 2 elements; one, some restructuring and also some investments in CapEx to support the strong demand in our applied business, George mentioned that in his opening remarks. If you look at the levers of improvement for free cash flow, we see, one, inventory reducing as we reduce our inventory in resi.

謝謝你的提問，傑夫。關於自由現金流，我們在第一季產生了影響，我們認為約為 2 億美元。如果您查看 24 年 85% 的指南，其中包括 2 個要素； 「一是進行一些重組，並對資本支出進行一些投資，以支持我們應用業務的強勁需求，」喬治在開場白中提到。如果你看看自由現金流的改善槓桿，我們會發現，第一，隨著我們減少樹脂庫存，庫存也會減少。

Two in receivables, we believe we're going to be able to demand more upfront payments as our lead times have improved, and also we have implemented our supplier financing program across the network, and that will help further improve DPO. To go back to your net financing charge is the byproduct of higher interest rate. We are going to refinance some debt. We have some commercial papers as well, which have win to be priced at the current higher interest rate. Factoring is a small proportion of the cost.

在應收帳款方面，我們相信，隨著交貨時間的縮短，我們將能夠要求更多的預付款，而且我們已經在整個網路上實施了供應商融資計劃，這將有助於進一步改善DPO 。回到你的淨融資費用是更高利率的副產品。我們將為一些債務進行再融資。我們也有一些商業票據，它們已成功以當前較高的利率定價。保理業務只佔成本的一小部分。

And then separately, could you just address -- I mean, orders obviously looked pretty solid in the quarter. Was there any impact from the cyber and the ability to kind of book orders, either as you ended the September quarter or as you've entered this particular quarter? Maybe just give us a little bit more color on what the challenges were in the business as you work your way through this?

然後，您能否單獨解決一下——我的意思是，本季的訂單顯然看起來相當穩定。無論是在九月季度結束時還是在進入本季時，網路和預訂訂單的能力是否有任何影響？也許只是讓我們更多地了解您在解決這個問題時所面臨的業務挑戰？

Yes. So when we look at our orders, Jeff, obviously, they continue very strong. And I think we're seeing strong growth in office data centers, health care, state and local government, education. We do see manufacturing, industrial bookings continue at an elevated level after a strong growth in construction starts. It is focused on the EV and semiconductor manufacturing. And then when we look at our pipeline, it's very strong. And a lot of that pipeline is focused on these key verticals. I would say from a booking standpoint, we were tracking prior to the cyber incident, a little bit better.

是的。因此，當我們看看我們的訂單時，傑夫，顯然，它們仍然非常強勁。我認為我們看到辦公室資料中心、醫療保健、州和地方政府、教育領域的強勁成長。我們確實看到，在建築開工強勁增長之後，製造業和工業訂單繼續保持在較高水平。它專注於電動車和半導體製造。當我們看到我們的管道時，它非常強大。其中許多管道都集中在這些關鍵的垂直領域。我想說，從預訂的角度來看，我們在網路事件發生之前就進行了跟踪，情況要好一些。

And then with the outage, I think we're somewhat slowed a bit in that last week. But I think as we look at first quarter and for the year with the pipeline that we have, we're going to see continued strong order growth. And I think when you look at our -- mainly around Commercial HVAC trends, it's clear that we're gaining share pretty much across all of the industries.

然後，由於停電，我認為上週我們的速度有所放緩。但我認為，當我們審視第一季和今年的管道時，我們將看到訂單持續強勁成長。我認為，當你看看我們的——主要圍繞商業暖通空調趨勢時，很明顯，我們在所有行業中都獲得了相當多的份額。

That's creating significant equipment sales into our Building Solutions business, which is creating a really nice installed base that we're now capitalizing on the service opportunity. In Building Solutions, our applied orders were up about 20%. And then in the ducting space, when you take out resi, our commercial ducting was up over 50%. So our portfolio of Commercial HVAC is playing out strong. And that ultimately is what's driving the installed base within our commercial -- within the Commercial Building solutions business.

這為我們的建築解決方案業務帶來了大量的設備銷售，從而創造了一個非常好的安裝基礎，我們現在正在利用服務機會。在建築解決方案領域，我們的申請訂單增加了約 20%。然後在管道空間，當你去掉 Resi 時，我們的商業管道增長了 50% 以上。因此，我們的商用暖通空調產品組合表現強勁。這最終是推動我們的商業——商業建築解決方案業務中安裝基礎的原因。

And our next question today comes from Joe Ritchie at Goldman Sachs.

今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Can we start on just the mix impact this quarter? I was a little surprised to see the Business Solutions business see $100 million impact from mix. And also because it seems like your service business has farly exceeded growth versus install this quarter. So what exactly is going on within Business Solutions that's driving negative mix and is that expected to reverse in 2024?

我們可以從本季的混合影響開始嗎？看到業務解決方案業務從混合中獲得 1 億美元的影響，我有點驚訝。也因為您的服務業務似乎遠遠超過了本季安裝業務的成長。那麼，業務解決方案內部到底發生了什麼導致了負面組合，而這種情況預計會在 2024 年扭轉？

So if you look at the equipment sales today, particularly in the high end of our market. We are gaining share. This is a strong part of the market. This business is very attractive for us because for $1 of hardware, we typically generate over the life cycle of the equipment another $9 of solutions, including $4 of services. And you saw also, Joe, in services today, we clearly have momentum. Services is growing fast, enabled by digital. And as a reminder, services is twice the profit of the average of the company. So this mix is based upon equipment sales, which would generate attractive profit with the service and UTM solution annuity.

因此，如果你看看今天的設備銷售情況，特別是在我們的高端市場。我們正在獲得份額。這是市場的重要組成部分。這項業務對我們非常有吸引力，因為對於 1 美元的硬件，我們通常會在設備的生命週期內另外產生 9 美元的解決方案，其中包括 4 美元的服務。喬，你也看到了，在今天的服務中，我們顯然有動力。在數位化的推動下，服務業正在快速成長。提醒一下，服務業的利潤是公司平均利潤的兩倍。因此，這種組合基於設備銷售，這將透過服務和 UTM 解決方案年金產生可觀的利潤。

Okay. Got it. Understood. And I guess maybe my one follow-on question then would be on 1Q. And so to look, it's December 12, we're clearly well into the quarter. You've given a fairly narrow range for the first quarter. I guess I'm just trying to understand 2 things. Number one, confidence that, that will be the range when you report results. And then secondly, just any help that you can give on the bridge. Because even if you adjust for the insurance settlement from last year, it seems like a relatively large decline in the first quarter despite flat organic sales expected this year.

好的。知道了。明白了。我想我的一個後續問題可能是關於第一季的。現在是 12 月 12 日，我們顯然已經進入該季度了。您給出的第一季的範圍相當狹窄。我想我只是想了解兩件事。第一，請相信，這將是您報告結果時的範圍。其次，就是你可以在橋上提供的任何幫助。因為即使根據去年的保險結算進行調整，儘管今年預計有機銷售額持平，但第一季的下降似乎相對較大。

So if you look at Q1, we see a strong order momentum continuing. If you look at, of course, the covenants, we have now a few days to go before the end of the quarter. So that by itself answer to the question. If you look at what is happening in Q1, we have strong momentum in our Building Solutions business, service, solution powered by digital is going fast. We see weaknesses in our Global Products division, particularly as it comes from resi. We have some impact also in China. Also, we have the impact of cyber, which is about 1% of the top line, and it's difficult to dimensionalize exactly about $0.02 of EPS. And last but not least, GP now is going through a more normalized seasonality after a few years of supply chain impact.

因此，如果你看看第一季度，我們會看到強勁的訂單動能仍在持續。當然，如果你看看契約，我們現在距離本季結束還有幾天。所以這本身就回答了這個問題。如果你看看第一季發生的事情，我們的建築解決方案業務、服務、數位驅動的解決方案發展勢頭強勁。我們看到了全球產品部門的弱點，特別是來自樹脂的弱點。我們在中國也有一些影響。此外，我們也受到網路的影響，約佔營收的 1%，而且很難準確地衡量每股收益約 0.02 美元。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，在經歷了幾年的供應鏈影響之後，GP 現在正在經歷更正常化的季節性。

And our next question today comes from Scott Davis of Melius Research.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Can you guys give us kind of help us understand the materiality of data centers. It seems obviously really bullish commentary we've heard from many folks, and don't always think about JCI in the data center business, but certainly, you guys have a meaningful presence. So can you help size that for us?

你們能否幫助我們了解資料中心的重要性？我們從許多人那裡聽到了顯然非常樂觀的評論，並且並不總是考慮資料中心業務中的 JCI，但當然，你們的存在是有意義的。那麼您能幫我們確定一下尺寸嗎？

Yes, Scott, let me take that one. As we look at data centers, we've been obviously, reinvesting in all of our applied product to have the full portfolio to be able to capitalize on what we see to be incredible growth here over the decade. And so when you look at a typical data centers, let's take a 100-megawatt data center, that requires roughly about 30,000 tons of cooling. That can be served. Right now, the big trend is air-cooled chillers. We're the leader in the space with the investments that we've made and being able to deliver on those capabilities and that's where we're seeing significant growth in serving that set of customers.

是的，斯科特，讓我拿那個。當我們審視資料中心時，很明顯，我們一直在對所有應用產品進行再投資，以獲得完整的產品組合，以便能夠利用我們在過去十年中看到的令人難以置信的成長。因此，當您查看典型的資料中心時，我們以 100 兆瓦的資料中心為例，它大約需要 30,000 噸的冷卻。可以這樣送達。目前的大趨勢是風冷式冷水機。我們是該領域的領導者，我們已經進行了投資，並且能夠提供這些功能，這就是我們在為這組客戶提供服務方面看到顯著增長的地方。

And so it can either be air cooled or water cooled. Of course, water cooled we're in a strong position, so roughly about 30,000 tons of cooling. So when you look at the market at '24, we're projecting somewhere 15 to 20 gigawatts, which will amount to about 5 tons of cooling needs. Now because of our position with our strong portfolio of the full technology to serve these, we believe we're positioned to get, let's say, half of that volume. going forward, which -- the overall volume would be greater than $2 billion. And so for us, this has been a position of incredible strength. A lot of that is because of our multigenerational developments we've made at our engineering center.

因此它可以是風冷或水冷。當然，水冷方面我們處於強勢地位，大約冷卻了30,000噸。因此，當您觀察 24 年的市場時，我們預計將達到 15 至 20 吉瓦，這將相當於約 5 噸的冷卻需求。現在，由於我們擁有強大的完整技術組合來服務這些，我們相信我們有能力獲得該數量的一半。展望未來，總金額將超過 20 億美元。因此對我們來說，這是一個具有令人難以置信的優勢的地位。這很大程度上歸功於我們在工程中心進行的多代人的開發。

Just a comment on that, we've -- just in the last 90 days, we've had customers representing over 20% of the U.S. GDP at our technology center because as we're laying out long-term plans with our customers, we're making sure we're positioned with the applications that ultimately achieve their needs. And so it is a very attractive space for us, Scott. And then from a service standpoint, once we get that unit installed, we're getting very strong service growth on top of that, which will then be over the life cycle of that installation.

只是對此發表評論，就在過去 90 天裡，我們技術中心的客戶數量占美國 GDP 的 20% 以上，因為當我們與客戶制定長期計劃時，我們確保我們的應用程式最終能夠滿足他們的需求。因此，這對我們來說是一個非常有吸引力的空間，斯科特。然後從服務的角度來看，一旦我們安裝了該設備，我們就會獲得非常強勁的服務成長，這將貫穿該安裝的生命週期。

That's helpful, George. And when you think about putting servicing and AI kind of heat-intensive data center, is that higher margin -- a, is a higher margin? But B, is a higher margin, if it is, is it higher margin because of the complexity or because of just the scale that you're just getting so much more content into that facility?

這很有幫助，喬治。當您考慮將服務和人工智慧置於熱密集型資料中心時，利潤率是否更高？a，利潤率是否更高？但是B，是更高的利潤，如果是的話，更高的利潤是因為複雜性還是因為你剛剛在該設施中獲得了更多內容的規模？

Yes, I think it's both. I mean the criticality of the applications that we provide and then the ability to be able to operate within those conditions. And then from a data standpoint, making sure that we're secure relative to what we do and how we manage the data that ultimately delivers the outcomes that we can deliver. Certainly, the work that we've done around OpenBlue and the cloud-based technology there. None of that was absolutely -- was not interrupted at all with our cyber incident. So a lot of that is, we believe it's high-margin service opportunity not only at the equipment level, but then with the use of all of the data to enhance how that equipment is actually operated in their environment.

是的，我認為兩者都是。我的意思是我們提供的應用程式的重要性以及在這些條件下運行的能力。然後從數據的角度來看，確保我們的工作以及管理數據的方式是安全的，最終交付我們能夠交付的結果。當然，我們圍繞著 OpenBlue 和基於雲端的技術所做的工作。這一切都不是絕對的——完全沒有因為我們的網路事件而中斷。因此，我們相信，這不僅是設備層面的高利潤服務機會，還可以使用所有數據來增強設備在其環境中的實際操作方式。

And our next question today comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Can you just provide a little bit more detail around the impact from the cyber attack? I mean, I think you said $0.04 in the fourth quarter, but it was kind of late in the fourth quarter. And then in particular, which businesses it impacted just kind of the mechanics of the thing? And then just clarify what you're saying in the first quarter, I think you said $200 million in cash, but then $0.02 of earnings, I might have missed. I'm not sure I can reconcile like all those numbers. So maybe just a little more mechanical detail on the impact of the cyber attack.

您能否提供更多有關網路攻擊影響的細節？我的意思是，我想你說的是第四季 0.04 美元，但那是第四季末了。然後特別是它影響了哪些企業的機制？然後澄清一下你在第一季所說的內容，我認為你說的是 2 億美元現金，但我可能錯過了 0.02 美元的收益。我不確定我能否像所有這些數字一樣協調一致。因此，也許只是關於網路攻擊影響的更多機械細節。

Yes. let me give you some of the numbers. In Q4, we believe that the impact on the top line was about 1%. And it will be the same in Q1. What you have going on, Steve, I would go to the EPS impact in a second is what you lose in Q4, you recover some of it in Q1, right? That's why you have those numbers going on. So 1% in revenue in Q4 and in Q1. The EPS impact in Q4 is about $0.04 and the impact in Q1 about $0.02. What is mainly impacted is everything which is short cycle, if you need to satisfy demand for something that you need to have in inventory, if you don't have it, you lose it, that's where the impact will be. My $200 million impact in cash is lower collection in the first quarter because we're not able to build immediately as we could not be immediately then that has delayed collection. That's the $200 million, Steve.

是的。讓我給你一些數字。第四季度，我們認為對營收的影響約為 1%。第一季也是如此。史蒂夫，你所發生的事情，我會在一秒鐘內討論每股收益的影響，即你在第四季度損失的東西，你在第一季度恢復了一些，對吧？這就是為什麼會有這些數字。因此，第四季和第一季的營收為 1%。第四季的 EPS 影響約為 0.04 美元，第一季的影響約為 0.02 美元。主要受影響的是所有短週期的東西，如果你需要滿足對庫存中需要的東西的需求，如果你沒有它，你就會失去它，這就是影響所在。我對現金的 2 億美元影響是第一季收款減少，因為我們無法立即建造，這導致了收款延遲。那是 2 億美元，史蒂夫。

Steve, just when you look at the overall event, it did create significant distraction internally. We -- it wasn't 1 or 2 days. It actually was about 3 weeks, which was the better part of October. So while we're able to quantify some of the impact, I think it's harder to put a number to the overall impact in October. As you -- as we -- although we maintained operations, we weren't necessarily operating at full efficiency. But I would tell you the way that our teams have responded and actually got back to operations has been remarkable. And so I do believe, just from an overall momentum standpoint, we lost a little bit of momentum in October. But I can tell you, in November and December, we gained that back.

史蒂夫，當你審視整個事件時，你會發現它確實在內部造成了嚴重的干擾。我們——這不是一兩天。實際上大約有三個星期，這是十月的大部分時間。因此，雖然我們能夠量化一些影響，但我認為很難對 10 月的整體影響給出一個數字。正如您一樣，正如我們一樣，儘管我們維持了運營，但我們不一定能充分有效地運作。但我要告訴你的是，我們的團隊做出反應並真正恢復營運的方式非常出色。因此，我確實相信，僅從整體勢頭的角度來看，我們在 10 月失去了一點動力。但我可以告訴你，在 11 月和 12 月，我們又恢復了這一點。

Steve, a final sort of detail. We have a substantial insurance coverage and the large proportion of our cost, including business disruption will be covered by insurance.

史蒂夫，最後一個細節。我們擁有大量的保險，我們的大部分成本（包括業務中斷）都將由保險承擔。

Okay. And so I guess I'm just struggling to see how you get from like $0.50 in the first quarter, which seems like an operating base to I don't know, $3.75 for the year. That just seems like a pretty steep hill. And I mean, are you -- I know you're probably assuming that the comps maybe get a little bit easier in some of the products businesses. But I mean, are you assuming like recovery, true kind of economic underlying recovery in some of those short-cycle businesses for the back half of the year?

好的。所以我想我只是在努力想知道你如何從第一季的 0.50 美元中獲得收益，這似乎是我不知道的營運基礎，全年 3.75 美元。那看起來就像一座相當陡峭的山。我的意思是，你是嗎——我知道你可能認為某些產品業務的競爭可能會變得更容易一些。但我的意思是，您是否假設下半年一些短週期業務會出現真正的經濟潛在復甦？

So what we see happening is earning growth to return during Q2. What we see today is momentum in our Building Solutions business. We talked about that at length, equipment, services, enabled by digital are resonating with our customers. We see GP stabilizing in Q2 and more normalized growth in the second half for our Global Product division. If you look at the theme for the year, commercial strength, service strength with service expected to grow high single digits plus in the year.

因此，我們看到的情況是獲利成長將在第二季度回歸。我們今天看到的是我們的建築解決方案業務的發展勢頭。我們詳細討論了數位化帶來的設備、服務正在與我們的客戶產生共鳴。我們預計第二季的總營收將趨於穩定，下半年全球產品部門的成長將更加正常化。如果你看看今年的主題，商業實力、服務實力，服務預計將在今年實現高個位數成長。

And our next question today comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

今天我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安米切爾。

I just wanted to understand some of the free cash flow moving parts again, maybe as we talk, just dollars year-on-year is the easiest thing for 2024. So I think you're guiding about $100 million of net income growth, about $300 million of free cash flow growth in 2024. So just trying to understand that extra kind of $200 million in the free cash, how much of that is sort of CapEx maybe coming down or working capital coming down substantially? I'm just trying to understand as well what's the full year impact of cyber in the free cash year-on-year? And if there's anything to be aware of on factoring, I know you mentioned supply chain finance.

我只是想再次了解一些自由現金流的變化部分，也許正如我們所說，對於 2024 年來說，同比增長是最簡單的事情。所以我認為你正在指導大約 1 億美元的淨利潤增長，大約2024 年自由現金流成長3 億美元。那麼，想了解額外的2 億美元自由現金，其中有多少是資本支出可能下降或營運資本大幅下降？我只是想了解網路對自由現金的全年影響是什麼？如果保理方面有什麼需要注意的，我知道您提到了供應鏈金融。

So if you look at the key driver of free cash flow, they are going to be around working capital, mainly in inventory. If you look at our level of inventory, we are at about -- we are going to close the year at about 54 days of inventory. We used to be before those supply chain events at about 45. A day of inventory is worth about quite a lot in terms of free cash flow. So inventory is going to be a key variable. Receivables also would be unchecked to declining as we are improving the way we manage that particular balance sheet line. Some of that will include upfront payments as our cycle has been improving to satisfy demand. We're able to demand for acceleration of products. We're able to demand more upfront payment and the final one would be supply chain financing, which we are now deploying across the world. Factoring will be flat year-on-year.

因此，如果你看看自由現金流的關鍵驅動因素，它們將圍繞營運資金，主要是庫存。如果你看一下我們的庫存水平，我們的庫存水準約為 54 天。我們在這些供應鏈事件發生之前大約有 45 個。就自由現金流而言，一天的庫存價值相當高。因此，庫存將成為關鍵變數。隨著我們正在改進管理特定資產負債表項目的方式，應收帳款也將不受限制地下降。其中一些將包括預付款，因為我們的周期一直在改進以滿足需求。我們能夠要求產品加速。我們能夠要求更多的預付款，最後一項是供應鏈融資，我們現在正在全球部署。保理業務將與去年同期持平。

And the cyber $200 million free cash headwind in Q1, is that like a headwind of $200 million for the year as a whole? Or are you assuming you recapture most of that in cash flow in the balance of the year?

第一季 2 億美元的網路自由現金逆風，是否相當於全年 2 億美元的逆風？或者您是否假設您在今年剩餘時間內重新獲得了大部分現金流？

It would be timing related. We'll catch that up in the second quarter.

這將與時間相關。我們將在第二季度趕上這一點。

And then my follow-up question would just be on the pace of the EPS recovery through the year. Historically, I think Q2 is about 19% or so of full year earnings. Is that roughly what we should expect for 2024 in terms of the seasonality?

然後我的後續問題就是全年每股盈餘復甦的速度。從歷史上看，我認為第二季的收益約為全年收益的 19% 左右。就季節性而言，這大致上是我們對 2024 年的預期嗎？

We are going to go through a more normalized seasonality in terms of EPS performance as now the supply chain is going back to what we had recovered. If you look at the themes for EPS earnings growth expected in Q2, momentum in Building Solutions have indicated, GP stabilizing in Q2 and then going to an increase in profit contribution in the second half. Those would be the theme for the flow of EPS across the year.

就每股盈餘表現而言，我們將經歷一個更正常化的季節性，因為現在供應鏈正在恢復到我們已經恢復的水平。如果你看一下第二季預期每股收益成長的主題，建築解決方案的勢頭表明，第二季的總利潤穩定，然後下半年的利潤貢獻將增加。這些將是全年每股收益流量的主題。

And our next question today comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

今天我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科。

One. I know we've gone around this a fair amount here. But on the 1Q guide, Olivier, I really struggle to get down to that range down in flat sales and the 13% segment EBITDA margin. So is there anything below the line from corporate timing, the interest or anything below the line you think about there? Just any help there would be helpful. And then on the free cash flow, the restructuring, I'm not sure if you did quantify that to Julian's question, but what sort of payback are we seeing on this restruction action? Where should we dial in for social cost savings for 2024?

一。我知道我們已經對此進行了相當多的討論。但奧利維爾，在第一季指南中，我真的很難將銷售額持平和 13% 的 EBITDA 利潤率降到這個範圍。那麼，有沒有什麼低於公司時間、利益或你認為的低於底線的東西呢？任何幫助都會有所幫助。然後關於自由現金流、重組，我不確定你是否確實對朱利安的問題進行了量化，但我們在這次重組行動中看到了什麼樣的回報？ 2024 年我們該從哪裡節省社會成本？

So if you look, let me start with the end. On free cash flow, we are going to have an impact of about 10 points of conversion to 2 elements. One is higher CapEx actually due to the demand we have, mainly in the data center. That's about 3 points of conversion and restructuring, we expect to have 7 points of conversion due to restructuring, the impact, the payback of those restructuring actions is about a year or below that. And we have actually quite a few projects to improve the profitability of our enterprise. On Q1, I go back to what I indicated earlier in the Q&A session of momentum in Building Solutions, that's what we see in Q1. Weakness in global product due to the resi demand, some more normalized comp as the supply chain is normalizing for our global product division and then, of course, the impact of cyber.

所以如果你看的話，讓我從結尾開始。在自由現金流方面，我們將對大約 10 個點轉換為 2 個元素產生影響。一是資本支出實際上是由於我們的需求而增加，主要是在資料中心。這大約是 3 個點的轉換和重組，我們預計由於重組而有 7 個點的轉換，這些重組行動的影響和回報約為一年或更少。我們實際上有很多項目可以提高我們企業的獲利能力。在第一季度，我回到我之前在問答環節中指出的建築解決方案的勢頭，這就是我們在第一季看到的情況。由於 Resi 需求，全球產品疲軟，隨著供應鏈對我們的全球產品部門的正常化，一些更正常化的補償，當然還有網路的影響。

Okay. And just on the CapEx. It just seems like it's a $60 million increase. Just wanted to -- I just verify that. But maybe you can talk -- can we just dig into the EMEALA segment. The margins that have been struggling for so long now. And we've got installation growth in orders and backlog, but insulation is down 5% this quarter. So I'm just wondering if you could just maybe just talk about what the problems are in that region and what some of the fixes are?

好的。就資本支出而言。看起來好像增加了 6000 萬美元。只是想——我只是驗證一下。但也許你可以談談——我們可以深入研究 EMEALA 細分市場嗎？長期以來一直苦苦掙扎的利潤率。我們的訂單和積壓安裝量有所增長，但絕緣材料本季下降了 5%。所以我想知道您是否可以談談該地區存在哪些問題以及一些修復措施是什麼？

So we see no structural reasons for the EMEALA margin to be double digits. And we expect margin to turn positive in Q2. Clearly, we have work to do in the region. The margin profile of the region is mainly due to the realization of lower margin orders into the revenue, we see that turning the other way, so turning positive in Q2, Nigel.

因此，我們認為 EMEALA 利潤率達到兩位數並沒有結構性原因。我們預計第二季利潤率將轉正。顯然，我們在該地區還有工作要做。該地區的利潤率狀況主要是由於利潤率較低的訂單轉化為收入，我們看到情況相反，因此在第二季度轉為正值，奈傑爾。

And our next question today comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

今天我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨。

So your orders accelerated slightly actually in Q4, up 9%, I think, for Building Solutions led by North America. And I know you talked about the strength already and Applied and in markets such as data centers. But as you know, some leading indicators of non-res have been a little weaker. So do you see order growth holding up here across your businesses throughout FY '24? And do you see your backlog staying around that $12.1 billion number for your long-cycle businesses in '24? I think any incremental color would be helpful.

因此，你們的訂單實際上在第四季度略有加速，我認為，以北美為首的建築解決方案成長了 9%。我知道您已經談到了應用材料公司以及資料中心等市場的實力。但如您所知，一些非資源領先指標略有疲軟。那麼，您認為 2024 財年整個業務的訂單成長會維持不變嗎？您認為您的長週期業務 24 年的積壓訂單數量是否維持在 121 億美元左右？我認為任何增量顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, I do, Andy, when we look at -- we've got a pretty robust tracking across all of the critical markets across the regions, and we're tracking not only lead generation to conversion to where we're positioning to deploy our resources and differentiate and ultimately win. So the pipeline generation continued to be very strong, and it's in line with what I previously discussed as far as the segments that are driving that. And I think as we look at our service business, that's on the -- when you think about new projects and new opportunities to build install.

是的，我願意，安迪，當我們看到時，我們對各地區的所有關鍵市場都有相當強大的跟踪，而且我們不僅跟踪潛在客戶的產生，還跟踪我們定位部署的轉化情況我們的資源和差異化並最終獲勝。因此，管道生成仍然非常強勁，這與我之前討論的推動管道生成的部分是一致的。我認為，當我們審視我們的服務業務時，當你考慮新項目和新的建置安裝機會時。

So that has been very strong. And what we're also seeing is that on the service side, with the work that we've been doing with not only going back into the installed base, getting connectivity, getting use of the data and then bringing forward new value propositions. We're seeing significant pickup in our PSAs and being able to get longer-term contracts and build the base there. So in spite of -- when you look -- when you segment our Building Solutions, whether it be installed, still strong, and then our ability to be able to, even in an economic decline, we should -- with the value proposition that we're bringing to our customers within service, I believe that that's going to continue to hold up.

所以這非常強大。我們也看到，在服務方面，我們一直在做的工作不僅是回到已安裝的基礎、取得連結、使用數據，然後提出新的價值主張。我們看到我們的公益廣告顯著回升，並且能夠獲得長期合約並在那裡建立基地。因此，儘管——當你看——當你細分我們的建築解決方案時，無論是否安裝，仍然強大，然後我們的能力，即使在經濟衰退的情況下，我們應該——以價值主張我們正在為客戶提供服務，我相信這種情況將持續下去。

And so right now, there's no -- even though we look at the same metrics you look at, dodge starts and ABI and all of the key metrics being a little bit weaker. At the end of the day, with the with the way that we prioritized our growth and how we're deploying our resources, we're positioned to capitalize on where the growth will occur.

所以現在，即使我們看到的指標與您看到的指標相同，但閃避啟動和 ABI 以及所有關鍵指標都稍弱一些。歸根結底，根據我們優先考慮成長的方式以及我們如何部署資源，我們能夠充分利用成長的機會。

That's very helpful. And then maybe you could give us just a little more color on your expectations for Global Products. Do you see global residential markets, for instance, turning positive in the second half? And as the greater segment turns, how are you thinking about the European heat pump market? I think you mentioned stabilizing overall in the second half, but maybe you can talk about your confidence level that destocking ends in the second quarter, as you guys mentioned?

這非常有幫助。然後也許您可以給我們更多關於您對全球產品的期望的資訊。例如，您認為下半年全球住宅市場會轉好嗎？隨著更大的細分市場的轉變，您如何看待歐洲熱泵市場？我想你提到了下半年總體穩定，但也許你可以談談你對第二季度去庫存結束的信心程度，就像你們提到的那樣？

Let's start with resi. As we look at the U.S. resi market, obviously, there was challenges that set up for resi in 2023, both in units as well as overall sales with the recession. I think when we look at the reason for that, it's higher cost equipment, it's weaker consumer spending. It's now people going back to work and reducing their home improvement spending. So a lot of contributors to that. I do believe that as we look at the transition here with the refrigerant changes, we get into more stabilization, where although there will be less units, certainly with the new refrigerant launches, that's going to demand more price because of the refrigerant.

讓我們從雷西開始。當我們審視美國再生矽市場時，顯然，隨著經濟衰退，再生矽在 2023 年將面臨單位數量和整體銷售方面的挑戰。我認為，當我們審視原因時，會發現設備成本較高，消費者支出疲軟。現在人們重返工作崗位並減少家居裝修支出。所以有很多貢獻者。我確實相信，當我們看到冷媒變化帶來的轉變時，我們會變得更加穩定，儘管單位數量會減少，當然隨著新冷媒的推出，但由於冷媒的原因，這將要求更高的價格。

And so on a sales basis, I think we're extremely well positioned now to be able to deliver our portfolio of refrigerant changes in time for the implementation on January 1. We have pulled ahead our new product interactions by as much as 2 or 3 months to ensure that we're giving our distributors enough time to rebalance their inventory and ultimately restock with the new 450 4B refrigerant products. And again, we're working with all of our constituents right from the suppliers to our distributors to partners to make sure we have a smooth transition. So we do believe it normalizes and somewhat stabilizes going forward. And that's on the resi in North America.

因此，在銷售基礎上，我認為我們現在處於非常有利的位置，能夠及時交付我們的冷媒變更組合，以便於 1 月 1 日實施。我們已將新產品互動提前了 2 到 3 年。幾個月的時間，以確保我們給經銷商足夠的時間來重新平衡庫存，並最終補充新的450 4B 冷媒產品。再次，我們正在與所有成員合作，從供應商到分銷商再到合作夥伴，以確保我們順利過渡。因此，我們確實相信它會正常化並在某種程度上穩定下來。這就是北美洲的儲備。

When you -- your question around heat pumps, I think we believe across our portfolio, that creates an incredible opportunity for us. We believe it's about a $100 billion market. that's grown mid-single digits. And today, we assess our portfolio, it's about 1/3 of our sales within HVAC, are heat pumps. And I do believe, although we've seen a pullback in Europe, and it's mainly around our JCH product that we were planning for a pretty significant pickup here, '23, which ultimately didn't materialize that maybe that's just kind of pushed to the right a bit. As some of the countries in Europe have pushed forward the implementation date and the like.

當您提出有關熱泵的問題時，我認為我們相信在我們的產品組合中，這為我們創造了一個難以置信的機會。我們相信這是一個價值 1000 億美元的市場。成長了中個位數。今天，我們評估了我們的產品組合，我們在暖通空調領域的銷售額中約有 1/3 是熱泵。我確實相信，儘管我們在歐洲看到了回調，而且主要是圍繞我們的 JCH 產品，我們計劃在 23 年在這裡進行一次相當大的提振，但最終沒有實現，也許這只是一種被迫的結果右邊一點。如歐洲部分國家提前了實施日期等。

And then as a result, I think consumers have pulled back and not ultimately capitalizing on the efficiency that the heat pumps represent to them. And so we're watching that closely. But I do believe that over the next -- maybe it's 18, 24 months, that will come back and come back pretty strong. And then on the commercial side, pretty much globally. We do have a leading portfolio. We're understanding now with the focus on decarbonization and sustainability that we are uniquely positioned with low GWP refrigerants across our portfolio. And we're positioned to now capitalize on that being a significant strength as we're capitalizing on some of the key markets globally. So that's kind of an assessment as I think about where we are with heat pumps.

結果，我認為消費者已經退縮，最終沒有利用熱泵所代表的效率。所以我們正在密切關注這一點。但我確實相信，在接下來的時間裡——也許是 18、24 個月，這種情況將會捲土重來，而且會相當強勁地捲土重來。然後在商業方面，幾乎是全球性的。我們確實擁有領先的產品組合。我們現在了解到，隨著我們對脫碳和永續發展的關注，我們在低 GWP 冷媒的產品組合中處於獨特的地位。我們現在準備好充分利用這一重要優勢，因為我們正在利用全球一些關鍵市場。這是我對熱泵現況的一種評估。

And our next question today comes from Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer.

今天我們的下一個問題來自諾亞·凱和奧本海默。

And it's really actually building on one of Nigel's earlier ones around restructuring and more broadly, productivity gains. You've got the $340 million of productivity savings for 2023. Is it time for kind of an updated medium-term target around productivity? And what do you see as the path forward to drive a stronger margin profile for the business and how much does productivity play into that?

它實際上是建立在奈傑爾早期關於重組和更廣泛的生產力提高的一項成果之上的。您已經在 2023 年節省了 3.4 億美元的生產力。現在是時候圍繞生產力製定更新的中期目標了嗎？您認為推動業務利潤率提高的道路是什麼？生產力對此有何影響？

So we believe, Noah, that fundamentally, we have the ability to be a 30% incremental company. We will achieve improvement in margin through 2 levers; one, gross margin as we improve our mix as we improve our operations. And the second lever is going to be through OpEx as we keep standardizing and centralizing our operations. And we have, as we see a strong portfolio of ideas and projects to improve the profitability of our enterprise. As I indicated earlier, typically, those projects have below 1 year payback. We don't think we need to update today our productivity programs. I think you will see that being embedded in the guide, Noah.

所以，諾亞，我們相信，從根本上來說，我們有能力成為一家 30% 增量的公司。我們將透過兩個槓桿來實現利潤率的提高；一是毛利率，因為我們在改善營運的同時改善了我們的產品組合。隨著我們不斷標準化和集中化我們的運營，第二個槓桿將透過營運支出來實現。正如我們所看到的，我們擁有強大的想法和專案組合來提高我們企業的獲利能力。正如我之前指出的，這些項目的投資回收期通常低於 1 年。我們認為今天不需要更新我們的生產力計劃。我想你會看到這一點被嵌入到指南中，諾亞。

And Noah, just to comment on that. As we have been able to strengthen our operating system globally, it hasn't identified significant opportunities continuing, so that we can capitalize on and ultimately continue to expand margins going forward to be able to get incrementals 30% plus. And so the payback that we're getting on the work that we're doing is within a year.

諾亞，只是對此發表評論。由於我們已經能夠在全球範圍內加強我們的作業系統，因此尚未發現持續的重大機會，因此我們可以利用並最終繼續擴大利潤率，從而能夠獲得 30% 以上的增量。因此，我們所做的工作將在一年內得到回報。

Yes. Appreciate it. Maybe a little bit surprised positively, I would say that the cyber incident didn't more significantly impact the service business. One, can you kind of explain why that was the case? And two, just talk about how the service and install operations performed during this challenging period for IT infrastructure for the company?

是的。欣賞它。也許有點驚訝，我想說網路事件並沒有對服務業務產生更重大的影響。第一，可以解釋為什麼會出現這種情況嗎？第二，談談在這個對公司 IT 基礎設施來說充滿挑戰的時期，服務和安裝作業的執行如何？

Noah, let me just comment on the cyber incident as a whole. What we learned is we're not alone, and this is more common phenomenon across companies like ours certainly it was unfortunate. But what I would tell you there was incredible remarkable work by our team with our business continuity plans.

諾亞，讓我對整個網路事件進行評論。我們了解到，我們並不孤單，這種現像在像我們這樣的公司中更為常見，這當然是不幸的。但我要告訴您的是，我們的團隊在業務連續性計劃方面做出了令人難以置信的出色工作。

And so as we were impacted, our teams really responded well, staying focused on customers, continuing to work and maintain operations with incredible speed and focus. And so with that, we were obviously very proactive in how we've communicated with suppliers, customers, employees to maintain our operations. So that is the foundation of what we were able to accomplish. What I would say is that the agility that we saw and the ability to be able to -- where we were -- where we did have some compromise, be able to get the proper set of data and make sure that we're continuing to serve across the board.

因此，當我們受到影響時，我們的團隊確實做出了很好的反應，始終以客戶為中心，以令人難以置信的速度和專注力繼續工作和維持營運。因此，我們顯然非常積極主動地與供應商、客戶、員工溝通以維持我們的營運。這就是我們能夠實現的目標的基礎。我想說的是，我們看到的敏捷性和能力——我們當時的情況——我們確實做出了一些妥協，能夠獲得正確的數據集並確保我們繼續全面服務。

We're able to maintain that and stay focused on what matters, which is ultimately delivering for our customers. So even though we had a little bit of disruption in the month of October, which we talked a little bit about earlier, I believe that the work that we've done really has positioned us strong going forward, and we've seen that momentum come back in November and December.

我們能夠保持這一點並專注於重要的事情，最終為我們的客戶提供服務。因此，儘管我們在 10 月遇到了一些幹擾（我們之前已經談到過），但我相信我們所做的工作確實使我們能夠強勁地前進，而且我們已經看到了這種勢頭十一月和十二月回來。

And our next question today comes from Joe O'Dea with Wells Fargo.

今天我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe O'Dea。

First question, I just wanted to ask on channel inventory trends. I think that first emerged as a headwind in the third quarter. I believe you expected to see a more meaningful headwind in the fourth quarter. And so can you size kind of what you believe you saw in the fourth quarter? And then within the guide, what type of headwind would be embedded in sort of first quarter or even second quarter of '24?

第一個問題，我只是想問通路庫存趨勢。我認為這在第三季首先成為逆風。我相信您預計第四季會出現更有意義的逆風。那麼您能否估算一下您認為在第四季看到的情況？然後在指南中，24 年第一季甚至第二季會出現什麼類型的逆風？

So when you look at our global product book-to-bill businesses that really depend on channel, starting with resi, certainly, we saw a pullback in resi and that was obviously more so in the U.S. versus globally, but overall, there was a decline within resi. So we've been working to offset obviously offset the inventory and get positioned for what we believe the new demand to be. And I think as you look at the book-to-bill, it's getting more normalized relative to on a go-forward basis that we've seen the adjustment -- when we look -- when we track our inventories, so I think we're back to where we were historically relative to what's in the channel with our distributors.

因此，當你看到我們真正依賴通路的全球產品訂單到帳單業務時，當然，從Resi 開始，我們看到Resi 出現了回調，與全球相比，美國的情況顯然更是如此，但總體而言，存在內阻下降。因此，我們一直在努力抵消庫存，並為我們認為的新需求做好準備。我認為，當你查看訂單出貨比時，相對於我們在追蹤庫存時看到的調整，它變得更加正常化，所以我認為我們回到了我們歷史上與經銷商通路相關的情況。

And so I'm somewhat optimistic that, that's stabilizing going forward. When you look at the rest of our book-to-bill businesses, and it's mainly around Fire & Security controls, the same hold true there. So we think that we're through most of the headwind with the adjustment of inventory in the channel, we've also adjusted our inventory in line with what we believe the forward-looking demand to be. And so it's important that we're positioned to be able to support that demand on a real-time basis, which we are.

因此，我對未來的穩定發展持樂觀態度。當你看看我們其他的訂單到帳單業務時，你會發現它主要圍繞著消防和安全控制，這同樣適用。因此，我們認為我們已經度過了渠道庫存調整的大部分阻力，我們也根據我們認為的前瞻性需求調整了庫存。因此，重要的是我們必須能夠即時支援這項需求，而我們確實做到了。

And as we go through reviews business-by-business, looking at what is actually happening, we are encouraged that now we're seeing orders across the board starting to build back our backlog so that we can be positioned here through the course of '24 to continue to build on the revenue base on a go-forward basis. So I mean we're somewhat optimistic, and I feel that we've -- the headwind that we saw in the second, third, fourth quarter, some of that now is normalizing, and we're back to seeing growth.

當我們逐一進行審查，看看實際發生的情況時，我們感到鼓舞的是，現在我們看到全面的訂單開始增加我們的積壓訂單，以便我們可以通過“ 24日繼續在未來的基礎上建立收入基礎。所以我的意思是，我們有點樂觀，我覺得我們已經——我們在第二、第三、第四季看到的逆風，其中一些現在正在正常化，我們又恢復了成長。

And then I just wanted to understand kind of project activity in the market, I think 2023 would have seen still a lot of constraints as it relates to labor availability for projects, supply chain availability. What you're seeing on that front, kind of the smoothness of operating of projects at this point whether labor still remains a constraint? And then just related, I mean, office strength does come across as a bit of a surprise. And so any additional color on kind of what you're seeing in North America office, anything that you're doing where you think you might be driving share gains there?

然後我只是想了解市場上的專案活動類型，我認為 2023 年仍然會遇到很多限制，因為它與專案的勞動力可用性、供應鏈可用性有關。您在這方面看到的情況是，目前專案運作的順利程度是否仍是限制因素？然後，我的意思是，辦公室的實力確實讓人有點驚訝。那麼，您在北美辦事處看到的任何其他信息，您認為可能會推動那裡的份額增長的任何事情？

Yes. I'll talk a little bit about operations. When you look at our Building Solutions across the globe, certainly, there was significant disruption where from a cycle time standpoint, some of our projects got extended a month or -- as we look at where we are today, we're back to almost where we were. And what we're believing now is our operational the operating system that we've deployed, we can create now cycle time as a competitive advantage and being able to respond with the improvements that we've made within our supply chain and within our factories and ultimately within the field and how we execute on projects.

是的。我會講一些關於營運的事情。當您查看我們在全球範圍內的建築解決方案時，當然會發現，從週期時間的角度來看，我們的一些項目延長了一個月，或者——當我們看看我們今天的情況時，我們幾乎回到了原來的狀態。我們這是在哪裡。我們現在相信的是我們已經部署的作業系統，我們現在可以將週期時間創造為競爭優勢，並能夠透過我們在供應鏈和工廠內所做的改進來回應最終在該領域以及我們如何執行項目。

So I'm very confident now that, that's going to be a critical strength of ours. Your question relative to resources, we have been very attractive in being able to recruit labor pretty much across the globe and have not been constrained by labor across both our project-based business as well as our service business. And then in our critical factories, we've been able to recruit retain and develop the talent is ultimately going to be critical to delivering on our capabilities. So that feels very good. As it relates to commercial buildings, even though there is a thought that maybe building is going to be a pullback, the work that we're doing within buildings is differentiating.

所以我現在非常有信心，這將成為我們的關鍵優勢。你的問題涉及到資源，我們非常有吸引力，能夠在全球範圍內招募勞動力，並且在我們的基於專案的業務和服務業務中都沒有受到勞動力的限制。然後，在我們的關鍵工廠中，我們能夠招募、保留和培養人才，這最終對於發揮我們的能力至關重要。所以感覺非常好。就商業建築而言，儘管有人認為建築可能會倒退，但我們在建築內所做的工作卻是與眾不同的。

And so as we go into a building now, especially with the focus on energy savings and decarbonization. There's no company that's consuming as much data as we are within the building. And so because of that, we can actually do upgrades and deploy new technologies and utilize our data platform, consume all of the data within the building, and in many cases, get a payback on what we do within the building. And so that is our focus. And now with building standards being implemented in many jurisdictions not only here in North America but across the globe, we believe that, that really presents a big opportunity for us in that space, especially with the focus on energy and decarbonization.

因此，當我們現在走進一棟建築物時，尤其關注節能和脫碳。沒有一家公司消耗的資料量與我們在大樓內的資料量一樣多。因此，我們實際上可以進行升級和部署新技術，並利用我們的數據平台，消耗建築物內的所有數據，並且在許多情況下，我們可以從建築物內所做的事情中獲得回報。這就是我們的重點。現在，隨著建築標準在北美乃至全球的許多司法管轄區實施，我們相信，這確實為我們在該領域提供了巨大的機會，特別是在關注能源和脫碳的情況下。

And our next question today comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

今天我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Just wanted to follow up on the potential timing of the insurance recovery, the business interruption insurance, would that be a fiscal '24 event? And is that embedded in your guidance?

只是想跟進保險恢復的潛在時間，業務中斷保險，這會是 24 財年的事件嗎？這是否已納入您的指導中？

The timing would be a '24 event. Some elements of our cost will actually be reimbursed, we believe, in Q1. That's the goal. So we depend when the costs are incurred and when we are able to prepare our claims. So some of it will come in Q1, certainly Deane in this year.

時間安排為 24 年的活動。我們相信，我們的某些成本實際上將在第一季得到補償。這就是目標。因此，我們取決於費用何時發生以及何時能夠準備索賠。所以其中一些將在第一季出現，當然是今年的迪恩。

Okay. Well, that's -- if you get that in the first quarter, that's pretty fast. So that's impressive. And then just a second question on China. Just -- it was called out several times as being a source of weakness, especially in Building Solutions. Any color there just in terms of at the margin, what might be changing?

好的。嗯，如果你在第一季就做到這一點，那就相當快了。這令人印象深刻。接下來是關於中國的第二個問題。只是——它多次被認為是弱點的根源，特別是在建築解決方案方面。邊緣處有任何顏色，可能會發生什麼變化？

Yes. So as they went through different phases of COVID, we saw a pickup last year and capitalize on that opportunity. We believe that we've built a leading position in the higher end of the commercial market there and have a very large installed base that we're capitalizing on to be able to build our service business. We are concerned that the macro environment has continued to deteriorate, leading to concerns of the overall slowdown now accelerating.

是的。因此，當他們經歷了新冠疫情的不同階段時，我們去年看到了回升，並利用了這個機會。我們相信，我們已經在那裡的高端商業市場建立了領先地位，並擁有非常龐大的安裝基礎，我們正在利用這些基礎來建立我們的服務業務。我們擔心宏觀環境持續惡化，導致整體放緩加速的擔憂。

I think when we look at these macro trends, not only working against us, but our competitors. And as we have now studied the markets and looking at verticals or looking at the overall region, we are planning prudently for continued pressure in China. So we hope we're a bit wrong and maybe it comes back a little bit stronger than we suspect right now, but that's really what's embedded in our guide.

我認為，當我們審視這些宏觀趨勢時，不僅對我們不利，而且對我們的競爭對手也不利。由於我們現在已經研究了市場並著眼於垂直行業或整個地區，因此我們正在謹慎地計劃應對中國的持續壓力。所以我們希望我們是有點錯了，也許它會比我們現在懷疑的更強大一些，但這確實是我們指南中所包含的內容。

And our next question today comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

今天我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓。

Can I just think it seems that JCI is facing as we look more growth, more investment, more inflation, so more CapEx, more working capital. So how do we think about this 100% cash conversion target going forward that we are in a more growthy and more inflationary environment, right? How do you balance growth and growth opportunities and investment versus cash conversion?

我可以認為 JCI 似乎面臨更多的成長、更多的投資、更多的通膨、更多的資本支出、更多的營運資本。那麼，我們如何看待這個 100% 現金轉換目標，因為我們正處於一個更成長和更通膨的環境中，對嗎？您如何平衡成長和成長機會以及投資與現金轉換？

So if you look at what we said in our prepared remarks, we believe that the fundamentals to allow our company to be a 100% free cash flow company over time are there. Today, to your point, we are investing in some parts of the business to support the strong growth in high-end HVAC. We believe that the level of CapEx at this level will be what we need to support the growth we see in the coming few years. The big levers of improvement in free cash flow are going to be around working capital. I mentioned inventory, just a day of inventory is worth about $50 million of cash. And if you look at where we are at the end of FY '23 at about 54 days of inventory, we used to be at 45 days of inventory, you can do the math.

因此，如果你看看我們在準備好的發言中所說的話，我們相信隨著時間的推移，讓我們公司成為 100% 自由現金流公司的基本面已經存在。今天，就您的觀點而言，我們正在對部分業務進行投資，以支持高端暖通空調領域的強勁成長。我們相信，這個水準的資本支出水準將是我們支持未來幾年成長所需的水準。改善自由現金流的重要槓桿將圍繞營運資本。我提到了庫存，僅僅一天的庫存就價值大約5000萬美元的現金。如果你看看我們在 23 財年末的庫存量約為 54 天，而我們過去的庫存量為 45 天，你就可以計算一下。

There was a big level of cash flow trapped in inventory, we are at it, inventory are declining as we put in our prepared remarks. We see also the ability to reduce the collection cycle. As our lead times are improving, we're going to be able to collect faster. And we are now because of the value proposition of our offering, we're able also to demand some prepayments. So some -- so those are the levers. I mentioned supply chain financing as well. So that's basically, Andrew, what is explaining the view on free cash flow and the path to be, over time, a 100% free cash flow conversion company.

庫存中存在大量現金流，我們正在努力，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，庫存正在下降。我們也看到了縮短收集週期的能力。隨著我們的交貨時間的縮短，我們將能夠更快地收集。現在，由於我們產品的價值主張，我們也可以要求一些預付款。所以有些──這些就是槓桿。我也提到了供應鏈融資。安德魯，這基本上就是解釋對自由現金流的看法以及隨著時間的推移成為 100% 自由現金流轉換公司的路徑。

Got you. And I just -- just clarify if I got it wrong. I think you had $220 million in impairments and restructuring charges, whether incremental impairments in that number? And if yes, what were they?

明白你了。我只是——只是澄清一下我是否弄錯了。我認為你們有 2.2 億美元的減損和重組費用，增量減損是否在這個數字內？如果是的話，它們是什麼？

Go again, we had impairment charges, correct. Go again on the second part of your question?

再說一遍，我們有減損費用，正確。再問一下你問題的第二部分嗎？

What assets do we impair?

我們損害了哪些資產？

So we had, first of all, some open blue assets associated with the FM system acquisition. Some of those assets are part of the FM portfolio. They are better. So we're going to discontinue what we have in OpenBlue. We had an impairment associated with the business we have in Argentina. This business is impacted by high hyperinflation and also we had some restructuring charges. Those are the 3 key levers.

因此，我們首先擁有一些與 FM 系統收購相關的開放藍色資產。其中一些資產是 FM 投資組合的一部分。他們更好。因此，我們將停止使用 OpenBlue 中的功能。我們在阿根廷的業務受到了損害。這項業務受到高惡性通貨膨脹的影響，我們也承擔了一些重組費用。這些是 3 個關鍵槓桿。

And our next question today comes from Brett Linzey with Mizuho Americas.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Mizuho Americas 的 Brett Linzey。

Just wanted to come back to price.cost. You said positive for '24. Could you just discuss the pricing component within that framework? And how are you thinking about incremental price actions this year? I'm just curious, did the cyber disruptions in any way limit your ability to capture price ask? Any color there?

只是想回到價格。成本。你說24年是積極的。您能否討論一下該框架內的定價部分？您如何看待今年增量價格行動？我只是好奇，網路中斷是否以任何方式限制了您捕獲報價的能力？那裡有什麼顏色嗎？

So on price cost today, we see price cost to be positive we believe we're going to be able to keep the level of pricing we saw in the second half of the year.

因此，就今天的價格成本而言，我們認為價格成本是正面的，我們相信我們將能夠維持下半年的定價水準。

And when you project the full year, we see -- still see strong -- with the value propositions that we're bringing to our customers in building solutions, strong value propositions that we're pricing to and with the differentiation that we bring with our digital content that really drives margin. And then on the product side, we continue to have record launches of new product introductions, which ultimately we price to the value that we bring to the market. So we're still seeing strong pricing across the portfolio.

當你預測全年時，我們看到——仍然看到強大的——我們在構建解決方案時為客戶帶來的價值主張，我們定價的強大價值主張以及我們帶來的差異化我們的數位內容確實能提高利潤。然後在產品方面，我們繼續創紀錄地推出新產品，最終我們根據為市場帶來的價值進行定價。因此，我們仍然看到整個投資組合的定價強勁。

Okay. Great. And then just a quick follow-up on the capacity expansion. Encouraging to hear, I guess, maybe just a little bit more context. Is it just simply targeted on data center? Are there other geographies? And is there any way to size what that investment was?

好的。偉大的。然後是產能擴張的快速跟進。我想，聽到更多的背景資訊可能會很令人鼓舞。它只是簡單地針對資料中心嗎？還有其他地區嗎？有什麼方法可以確定投資的規模嗎？

Yes. It's -- I mean, let's -- there was a big segment here that's targeted on data centers because of the position that we have and the strength that we have earned with the products that we're bringing into that segment. So as I talked with Scott earlier, we see a significant demand here over the next multiple years. that we're positioned now to capitalize on in line with the customer relationships that we have. And so that's going to continue. But when you look at applied, when you look at our overall commercial HVAC business, when we -- what's happened is across the board with the secular trends around decarbonization, sustainability, efficiency.

是的。我的意思是，這裡有一個很大的細分市場是針對資料中心的，因為我們擁有的地位以及我們透過引入該細分市場的產品所獲得的實力。因此，正如我早些時候與斯科特交談的那樣，我們看到未來幾年這裡的需求量很大。我們現在的定位是根據我們現有的客戶關係來利用它。這樣的情況將會持續下去。但是，當你看看應用時，當你看看我們的整體商業暖通空調業務時，我們所發生的一切都是圍繞脫碳、永續性和效率的長期趨勢。

We are uniquely positioned with our technology in the way that we develop technology. We engineer and design right from the compressor to the end market, making sure that our equipment is optimized for the application that we provide. As a result of that, that has a broad base positioned us to be able to now capitalize on these secular trends broad-based, not just within data centers, but across many of the other verticals. And so as we think about the work that we've done to reinvest over the last 3 or 4 years in a position that we have, we have a very strong position across our applied portfolio that I believe beyond -- well above the economic growth that we're going to now be able to capitalize on because of that increased demand. So it's pretty broad-based.

我們在技術開發方面擁有獨特的技術定位。我們從壓縮機到終端市場都進行工程和設計，確保我們的設備針對我們提供的應用進行最佳化。因此，這擁有了廣泛的基礎，使我們現在能夠廣泛地利用這些長期趨勢，不僅在資料中心內，而且在許多其他垂直領域。因此，當我們思考過去三四年我們為再投資所做的工作時，我們在應用投資組合中擁有非常強大的地位，我相信這一地位遠高於經濟增長由於需求的增加，我們現在能夠利用這一點。所以它的基礎相當廣泛。

And this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to George Oliver for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回喬治·奧利佛（George Oliver）發表閉幕詞。

Thank you all for your continued interest and support in Johnson Controls. As we stand here today, we are set up for success through our strong foundation as we continue to build on opportunities to enhance our business from our margin profile, free cash flow generation and growth through the digitization of our service offering. It is all about execution. And as we look ahead, I am confident in our global team's ability to deliver value and results for our customers and shareholders as we enter fiscal year 2024. So with that, operator, that concludes our call today.

感謝大家對江森自控的持續關注與支持。今天，當我們站在這裡時，我們已為透過我們的堅實基礎取得成功做好了準備，我們將繼續利用機會，透過我們的利潤狀況、自由現金流的產生和透過服務產品的數位化實現成長來增強我們的業務。一切都與執行有關。展望未來，我對我們的全球團隊在進入 2024 財年時為客戶和股東提供價值和成果的能力充滿信心。營運商，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call, and we thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝大家參加今天的示範。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。