江森自控 (JCI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Johnson Controls' First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

歡迎來到江森自控 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在錄製此會議。如果您有異議，請此時斷開連接。

I will turn the call over to Jim Lucas, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我將把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁吉姆盧卡斯。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls' First Quarter Fiscal 2023 Results. The press release and all related tables issued earlier this morning as well as the conference call slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at johnsoncontrols.com. Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, George Oliver; and Chief Financial Officer, Olivier Leonetti.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論江森自控 2023 財年第一季度的業績。今天上午早些時候發布的新聞稿和所有相關表格以及電話會議幻燈片演示可以在我們網站 johnsoncontrols.com 的投資者關係部分找到。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有江森自控董事長兼首席執行官喬治奧利弗；和首席財務官 Olivier Leonetti。

Before we begin, let me remind you that during our presentation today, we will make forward-looking statements. Listeners are cautioned that these statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Johnson Controls. These risks and uncertainties can cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. We advise listeners to carefully review the risk factors and cautionary statements in our most recent Form 10-Q, Form 10-K and today's release.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒您，在我們今天的演講中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述。聽眾請注意，這些陳述受某些風險和不確定性的影響，其中許多風險和不確定性難以預測，而且通常超出江森自控的控制範圍。這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大不相同。我們建議聽眾仔細閱讀我們最新的 10-Q 表格、10-K 表格和今天發布的表格中的風險因素和警告聲明。

We will also reference certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are contained in the schedule attached to our press release and in the appendix to this presentation, both of which can be found on the Investor Relations section of Johnson Controls' website. I will now turn the call over to George.

我們還將參考某些非 GAAP 指標。這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬包含在我們新聞稿所附的時間表和本演示文稿的附錄中，兩者都可以在 Johnson Controls 網站的投資者關係部分找到。我現在將把電話轉給喬治。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today. Let's begin with Slide 3. Fiscal 2023 is off to a strong start with solid Q1 results. Our teams across the globe have executed well, delivering strong financial performance for our shareholders while pushing the pace of innovation to provide our customers with the next phase of digital solutions across our vectors of growth.

謝謝，吉姆，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始。2023 財年以穩健的第一季度業績開局良好。我們在全球的團隊執行良好，為我們的股東提供了強勁的財務業績，同時推動創新步伐，為我們的客戶提供跨越我們增長載體的下一階段數字解決方案。

During the quarter, we accelerated growth across our service-based businesses, drove higher margins and delivered profitability at the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance range. Overall, organic revenue grew at a healthy pace, and our $11.3 billion backlog remains resilient, growing 11% year-over-year. Our Service strength was resilient and remains a key competitive differentiator.

在本季度，我們加速了基於服務的業務的增長，推動了更高的利潤率，並在我們調整後的每股收益指導範圍的高端實現了盈利。總體而言，有機收入以健康的速度增長，我們 113 億美元的積壓訂單保持彈性，同比增長 11%。我們的服務實力具有彈性，並且仍然是一個關鍵的競爭優勢。

While order timing, supply chain realization and China policies have impacted our global products and Field install order flow during the quarter, we are seeing incremental improvements in order momentum heading into Q2. As we mentioned over the last few quarters, we remain focused on the fundamentals of our business and improving our operational execution. Our teams have done a great job advancing our initiative to accelerate growth and optimize the efficiency of our cost structure. During the quarter, we delivered $90 million in productivity cost savings and are on track to reach our $340 million savings target over the course of this fiscal year.

雖然訂單時間、供應鏈實現和中國政策影響了本季度我們的全球產品和現場安裝訂單流，但我們看到進入第二季度的訂單勢頭正在逐步改善。正如我們在過去幾個季度提到的那樣，我們仍然專注於我們業務的基本面並改善我們的運營執行力。我們的團隊在推進我們加速增長和優化成本結構效率的計劃方面做得很好。本季度，我們節省了 9000 萬美元的生產力成本，並有望在本財年實現 3.4 億美元的節省目標。

We are also committed to our prudent approach to capital allocation, reinvesting in new products and technology to drive long-term shareholder value while continuing to return capital to our shareholders. We recently announced our plans to enhance our growing industrial heat pump portfolio with the acquisition of Hybrid Energy. Acquisitions are an integral part of our growth strategy. And by investing in Hybrid's patented high temperature heat pump technology, we are continuing to strengthen our leading global product portfolio and provide our customers with the most efficient, sustainable building solutions.

我們還致力於採用審慎的資本配置方法，對新產品和技術進行再投資，以推動長期股東價值，同時繼續向股東返還資本。我們最近宣布了通過收購 Hybrid Energy 來增強我們不斷增長的工業熱泵產品組合的計劃。收購是我們增長戰略不可或缺的一部分。通過投資 Hybrid 的專利高溫熱泵技術，我們將繼續加強我們領先的全球產品組合，並為我們的客戶提供最高效、可持續的建築解決方案。

We are well positioned to capitalize on large growth opportunities across our dynamic product portfolio and Field business. Through our integrated domain expertise, global coverage and scale, we are leading the way towards smart, healthy and sustainable buildings for our customers. While the global macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, based on our strong start to Q1 and our expectations for the remainder of the year, we are raising the lower bookend of our adjusted EPS guidance range for the year.

我們有能力利用我們充滿活力的產品組合和現場業務的巨大增長機會。通過我們整合的領域專業知識、全球覆蓋範圍和規模，我們正在為我們的客戶引領通往智能、健康和可持續建築的道路。儘管全球宏觀經濟環境仍然不確定，但基於我們對第一季度的強勁開局和我們對今年剩餘時間的預期，我們提高了今年調整後每股收益指導範圍的賬面下限。

Now turning to Slide 4. During the quarter, our OpenBlue platform continued to expand as we enhanced our capabilities, leveraging the power of AI and providing customers with unique insights. A good example is the deployment of OpenBlue Enterprise Manager at a leading tech manufacturer to help them meet their energy and sustainability goals. In addition, we have recently installed OpenBlue Companion at their facility to enhance employee productivity and space utilization. From advancing predictive analytics to integrations at the edge, our full suite of solutions empowers our customers to meet their carbon emission goals and create a healthier, more productive workspace for their people. To date, we have enhanced the existing connectivity of over 11,000 chillers through OpenBlue, representing a 79% increase year-over-year.

現在轉向幻燈片 4。在本季度，我們的 OpenBlue 平台繼續擴展，因為我們增強了我們的能力，利用人工智能的力量並為客戶提供獨特的見解。一個很好的例子是 OpenBlue 企業管理器在一家領先的技術製造商中的部署，以幫助他們實現能源和可持續發展目標。此外，我們最近在他們的工廠安裝了 OpenBlue Companion，以提高員工的工作效率和空間利用率。從推進預測分析到邊緣集成，我們的全套解決方案使我們的客戶能夠實現他們的碳排放目標，並為他們的員工創造一個更健康、更高效的工作空間。迄今為止，我們已經通過 OpenBlue 增強了 11,000 多台冷水機組的現有連接性，同比增長 79%。

Moving on to Slide 5. Our digital service journey has accelerated since we launched our innovative OpenBlue Platform in fiscal 2021. At that time, we entered the first phase of our digital transformation with a focus on enhancing data mining capabilities. Over fiscal 2022, we launched the OpenBlue Gateway, enabling data access at scale and increased connectivity across our growing installed base. We are now positioned for the next phase of our journey as we standardize our field operations globally. Linking the benefits of real-time monitoring of connected devices to our extensive service network, we can provide our customers with faster response times while optimizing the deployment of our global field service presence.

轉到幻燈片 5。自從我們在 2021 財年推出創新的 OpenBlue 平台以來，我們的數字服務之旅加速了。當時，我們進入了數字化轉型的第一階段，重點是增強數據挖掘能力。在 2022 財年，我們推出了 OpenBlue Gateway，實現了大規模數據訪問，並增加了我們不斷增長的客戶群的連接性。隨著我們在全球範圍內標準化我們的現場運營，我們現在已經為下一階段的旅程做好了準備。將連接設備實時監控的優勢與我們廣泛的服務網絡相結合，我們可以為客戶提供更快的響應時間，同時優化我們全球現場服務的部署。

We are beginning to see the results of our digital offerings enabling service growth. During the first quarter, service orders and revenue grew 10% year-over-year. With continued growth, we are in a great position to reach the goal we set out at our Investor Day in fiscal 2021 to capture $2 billion in additional service revenue by 2024.

我們開始看到我們的數字產品促進服務增長的成果。第一季度，服務訂單和收入同比增長 10%。隨著持續增長，我們有能力實現我們在 2021 財年投資者日設定的目標，即到 2024 年獲得 20 億美元的額外服務收入。

On to Slide 6. With nearly 40% of the world's carbon emissions coming from commercial and industrial buildings, the goal of achieving net 0 starts at the building level. Through our vast sustainable infrastructure partnership ecosystem, we play an integral role in helping our customers achieve these targets no matter where they are in their decarbonization journey. Starting with our established advisory services and goal-setting partnerships with KPMG and Accenture, we help customers take the first step to accelerate and solve their decarbonization and efficiency goals.

轉到幻燈片 6。世界上近 40% 的碳排放來自商業和工業建築，實現淨零排放的目標始於建築層面。通過我們龐大的可持續基礎設施合作夥伴生態系統，我們在幫助我們的客戶實現這些目標方面發揮著不可或缺的作用，無論他們處於脫碳之旅的哪個階段。從我們與畢馬威和埃森哲建立的諮詢服務和目標設定合作夥伴關係開始，我們幫助客戶邁出第一步，加速和解決他們的脫碳和效率目標。

We are also able to help fast track our customers' net zero targets through carbon reduction services, collaborating with leading renewable energy supply and distributed energy providers. With our comprehensive customer solutions and strategic partnerships, we are positioned to take full advantage of favorable regulatory tailwinds and continued momentum. During Q1, we realized over $200 million in organic revenue, growing over 20% year-over-year with orders over the last 12 months, growing at 6%.

我們還能夠通過碳減排服務、與領先的可再生能源供應和分佈式能源供應商合作，幫助快速跟踪客戶的淨零排放目標。憑藉我們全面的客戶解決方案和戰略合作夥伴關係，我們能夠充分利用有利的監管順風和持續發展勢頭。在第一季度，我們實現了超過 2 億美元的有機收入，同比增長超過 20%，過去 12 個月的訂單增長率為 6%。

Turning to Slide 7. The Healthy Buildings opportunity remains attractive as our customers invest in indoor environmental quality improvements post-COVID. Solving for the indoor air quality and energy consumption challenges of hybrid work models is driving a compelling intersection of our healthy buildings and sustainability strategic growth vectors. We are in a leadership position, thanks to OpenBlue indoor air quality as a service, which continued to gain momentum in Q1 as well as our leading IAQ and space management capabilities in OpenBlue Enterprise Manager.

轉到幻燈片 7。健康建築的機會仍然具有吸引力，因為我們的客戶在 COVID 後投資於改善室內環境質量。解決混合工作模式的室內空氣質量和能源消耗挑戰正在推動我們的健康建築與可持續發展戰略增長向量的引人注目的交集。我們處於領先地位，這要歸功於 OpenBlue 室內空氣質量即服務，它在第一季度繼續獲得發展勢頭，以及我們在 OpenBlue Enterprise Manager 中領先的 IAQ 和空間管理能力。

In our Healthy Buildings business, trailing 12-month orders increased 11% year-over-year, and our pipeline of $1.2 billion remains strong. Looking forward, we expect continued growth momentum as the value of indoor environmental quality improvements deliver its benefits for our customers.

在我們的健康建築業務中，過去 12 個月的訂單同比增長 11%，我們 12 億美元的渠道仍然強勁。展望未來，隨著室內環境質量改善的價值為我們的客戶帶來好處，我們預計將繼續保持增長勢頭。

On to Slide 8. We are honored to be continually recognized for our dedicated sustainability efforts. Among other honorable recognitions, 2 of Johnson Controls leaders were awarded for their efforts. Chief Sustainability Officer, Katie McGinty, was named one of 2022's Most Influential Women Executives for Sustainability Leadership by WomenInc. magazine. Anu Rathninde, President of Asia Pacific, received the ESG Exploration Character Award of the Year from the 2022 ESG Pioneer 60 Awards by Jiemian. I am proud of our team for leading by example and executing on our values.

轉到幻燈片 8。我們很榮幸因為我們致力於可持續發展的努力而不斷受到認可。在其他榮譽表彰中，江森自控的 2 位領導者因他們的努力而獲獎。首席可持續發展官 Katie McGinty 被 WomenInc 評為 2022 年最具影響力的可持續發展領導力女性高管之一。雜誌。亞太區總裁Anu Rathninde榮獲界面2022年ESG先鋒60人評選的年度ESG探索人物獎。我為我們的團隊以身作則並踐行我們的價值觀而感到自豪。

I will now turn the call over to Olivier to go through the financial details of the quarter. Olivier?

我現在將把電話轉給奧利維爾，讓他了解本季度的財務細節。奧利維爾？

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，喬治，大家早上好。

Let me start with the summary on Slide 9. Total sales grew 4% with organic sales increasing 9%, comprised of 10% price and a modest volume decline. FX was a 6% headwind during the quarter. We saw strong performance across our longer cycle Field businesses, which grew 10% in the quarter. Our shorter-cycle Global Products business grew sales 7%, impacted by a slowdown in residential demand. Adjusted segment EBITDA increased 15% with margins expanding 140 basis points to 13.7%. Positive price costs and improved productivity more than offset unfavorable business mix. Adjusted EPS of $0.67 was at the high end of our guidance and increased 24% year-over-year. During the quarter, we absorbed an additional $0.01 of FX headwinds versus the prior guide. Free cash flow returned to the normal seasonal pattern with the usage to start the year. In addition, inventory levels were impacted by softness in residential as well as continued supply chain disruptions, which while improving impacted our ability to satisfy growing demand in commercial.

讓我從幻燈片 9 的總結開始。總銷售額增長了 4%，有機銷售額增長了 9%，包括 10% 的價格和適度的銷量下降。外彙在本季度受到 6% 的不利影響。我們在較長周期的 Field 業務中看到了強勁的表現，該業務在本季度增長了 10%。受住宅需求放緩的影響，我們較短週期的全球產品業務銷售額增長了 7%。調整後的分部 EBITDA 增長 15%，利潤率擴大 140 個基點至 13.7%。積極的價格成本和提高的生產力足以抵消不利的業務組合。調整後每股收益 0.67 美元處於我們指導的高端，同比增長 24%。在本季度，我們吸收了額外 0.01 美元的外匯阻力，與之前的指南相比。隨著年初的使用，自由現金流恢復到正常的季節性模式。此外，庫存水平受到住宅市場疲軟以及供應鏈持續中斷的影響，這在改善的同時影響了我們滿足不斷增長的商業需求的能力。

Turning to our EPS bridge on Slide 10. Overall, operations contributed $0.19 versus the prior year, including an $0.11 benefit from our productivity programs for which we are on track to meet our targeted savings for the year. In the quarter, FX was a $0.04 headwind. Below the line, higher net financing charges and corporate expense were offset by lower share count and favorable noncontrolling interest.

轉到幻燈片 10 上的 EPS 橋。總體而言，與上一年相比，運營貢獻了 0.19 美元，其中包括我們有望實現今年目標節省的生產力計劃帶來的 0.11 美元收益。在本季度，外匯逆風 0.04 美元。在線下，較高的淨融資費用和公司費用被較低的股份數量和有利的非控制性權益所抵消。

Please turn to Slide 11. Total orders for our Field businesses increased 5%. As George stated earlier, orders in the quarter were affected by timing and COVID-related impacts in China. Although timing had the largest impact within our in-store business which grew 1% in the quarter, we were encouraged by 10% order growth in our Service business driven by double-digit growth in both EMEALA and APAC. Field backlog remains at record levels, growing 11% to $11.3 billion or $800 million increase versus the prior year while growing $250 million sequentially. Our Global Products third-party backlog grew more than 30% over the prior year to $2.8 billion.

請轉到幻燈片 11。我們現場業務的總訂單增加了 5%。正如 George 早些時候所說，本季度的訂單受到中國時間和 COVID 相關影響的影響。儘管時機對我們店內業務的影響最大，該業務在本季度增長了 1%，但我們對服務業務訂單增長 10% 感到鼓舞，這得益於 EMEALA 和亞太地區的兩位數增長。現場積壓仍處於創紀錄水平，增長 11% 至 113 億美元，即與上一年相比增長 8 億美元，同時環比增長 2.5 億美元。我們的全球產品第三方積壓訂單比上一年增長了 30% 以上，達到 28 億美元。

Let's now discuss our segment results in more details on Slides 12 and 13. Sales in North America were up 10% organically with broad-based growth across the portfolio. Our installed business grew 12% with low double-digit growth in both retrofit and new construction. Overall, HVAC & Controls continues to gain momentum, growing mid-teens year-over-year, while Fire & Security increased high single digits.

現在讓我們在幻燈片 12 和 13 上更詳細地討論我們的部門業績。北美的銷售額有機增長了 10%，整個產品組合都有廣泛的增長。我們的已安裝業務增長了 12%，改造和新建業務均以低兩位數的速度增長。總體而言，暖通空調和控制繼續保持增長勢頭，同比增長十幾歲，而消防和安全增長了高個位數。

Order timing mainly impacted North America as orders increased 6% and with solid growth of 7% in our Service business. New construction orders grew over 50%, primarily in HVAC. In aggregate, Fire & Security orders grew low single digits. Total backlog ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, up 16% year-over-year. Segment margins decreased 30 basis points year-over-year to 11.3% as positive price cost and ongoing productivity benefits were offset by unfavorable project mix.

訂單時間主要影響北美，因為訂單增長了 6%，我們的服務業務增長了 7%。新建築訂單增長超過 50%，主要是在暖通空調領域。總的來說，消防和安全訂單增長低個位數。本季度末總積壓訂單為 75 億美元，同比增長 16%。部門利潤率同比下降 30 個基點至 11.3%，這是因為積極的價格成本和持續的生產力收益被不利的項目組合所抵消。

Sales in EMEALA grew 12% organically with strong performance in Applied Commercial HVAC and Fire & Security. Our service-based business was strong in the quarter, growing mid-teens year-over-year with recurring revenue contributing low double-digit growth. Orders were up 5% led by over 20% growth across our Fire & Security platforms, which was partially offset by declines in HVAC and Industrial Refrigeration. Backlog was up 5% year-over-year to $2.2 billion.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額有機增長 12%，應用商業暖通空調和消防與安保業務表現強勁。我們基於服務的業務在本季度表現強勁，同比增長了十幾歲，經常性收入貢獻了兩位數的低增長。我們的消防和安全平台訂單增長超過 20%，帶動訂單增長 5%，但部分被 HVAC 和工業製冷業務的下滑所抵消。積壓訂單同比增長 5% 至 22 億美元。

Segment EBITDA margins declined 310 basis points to 7.7% as a result of unfavorable mix and dilutive price cost, which offset favorable volume leverage and the benefits of cost savings during the quarter. Sales in Asia Pacific increased 7% driven by mid-single-digit growth in our Commercial HVAC & Controls platform. Service performed well in the quarter, growing low double digits, benefiting from our shorter cycle transactional business, primarily in HVAC & Controls. China grew 1% in the quarter, impacted by COVID-induced lockdowns. As China continues to reopen, we are encouraged with the momentum building within that region.

由於不利的組合和攤薄的價格成本，該部門的 EBITDA 利潤率下降了 310 個基點至 7.7%，這抵消了本季度有利的銷量槓桿和成本節約的好處。亞太地區的銷售額增長了 7%，這主要得益於我們的商業 HVAC 和控制平台實現了中等個位數的增長。服務在本季度表現良好，增長低兩位數，受益於我們較短週期的交易業務，主要是暖通空調和控制。受 COVID 引發的封鎖影響，中國本季度增長 1%。隨著中國繼續重新開放，我們對該地區的發展勢頭感到鼓舞。

Orders declined 1% as low double-digit growth in Service was offset by a decline in HVAC & Controls installation. Overall install orders declined 5% organically. Backlog of $1.6 billion declined 1% year-over-year. Segment EBITDA margins increased 40 basis points to 10.5%, driven by positive price/cost and productivity savings, which offset lower volumes and FX headwinds over the quarter. Sales in our shorter cycle products business increased 7% in the quarter benefiting from strong price realization of 11%. Commercial HVAC product sales were up low double digits with strength in light commercial driven by over 20% growth in North America and EMEALA, respectively. Applied HVAC sales were up low double digits with continued demand in chiller within our data center end market.

訂單下降 1%，因為服務的低兩位數增長被 HVAC 和控制安裝的下降所抵消。整體安裝訂單有機下降 5%。積壓訂單為 16 億美元，同比下降 1%。分部 EBITDA 利潤率增長 40 個基點至 10.5%，這主要得益於積極的價格/成本和生產力節約，抵消了本季度較低的銷量和外匯逆風。受益於 11% 的強勁價格實現，本季度我們較短週期產品業務的銷售額增長了 7%。商用 HVAC 產品銷售額增長了兩位數，其中北美和 EMEALA 分別超過 20% 的增長推動了輕型商用產品的強勁增長。由於我們的數據中心終端市場對冷卻器的持續需求，應用 HVAC 銷售額增長了兩位數。

Outside of North America, our global residential HVAC sales were up low single digits. North America resi HVAC declined 20% as the overall market softened, and we were challenged by unfavorable product mix in the channel. Our HVAC business grew mid-single digits, led by more than [25%] growth in Applied within EMEALA as well as strong demand from our Hitachi commercial heat pump in EMEA. Fire & Security products grew high single digits in aggregate, led by continued demand in North America and in the Middle East for our fire detection products. EBITDA margins expanded 580 basis points to 20.3% driven by positive price/cost and the benefit of productivity savings.

在北美以外，我們的全球住宅 HVAC 銷售額呈低個位數增長。隨著整體市場疲軟，北美 resi HVAC 下降了 20%，我們受到渠道中不利產品組合的挑戰。我們的 HVAC 業務實現了中等個位數增長，這主要得益於 EMEALA 應用領域超過 [25%] 的增長以及我們在 EMEA 地區日立商用熱泵的強勁需求。在北美和中東對我們的火災探測產品的持續需求帶動下，消防和安保產品總體增長高個位數。 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 580 個基點，達到 20.3%，這得益於積極的價格/成本和節省生產力的好處。

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 14. We ended Q1 with $1.5 billion in available cash and net debt at 2.2x, which is within our target range of 2 to 2.5x.

轉到幻燈片 14 上的資產負債表和現金流。我們以 15 億美元的可用現金和淨債務結束第一季度，比率為 2.2 倍，這在我們 2 到 2.5 倍的目標範圍內。

Now let's discuss our fiscal '23 guidance on Slide 15. We were pleased with our start of the year and are encouraged by the continued strength and resilience in our order and backlog. Our backlog grew double digits and remains at record level. We are providing Q2 organic sales guidance of approximately 10% growth with price being the principal contributor. Segment EBITDA margin is expected to expand 100 to 110 basis points, and adjusted EPS is an expected range of $0.72 to $0.74, which represents year-over-year growth of 15% to 18%. On a full year basis, we are raising the lower end of the wide range we introduced to beginning the year. While we are encouraged with our strong start to the year and our current second quarter outlook, we continue to take a cautious outlook for the full year given the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.

現在讓我們在幻燈片 15 上討論我們的 23 財年指南。我們對今年的開始感到滿意，並對我們的訂單和積壓訂單的持續實力和彈性感到鼓舞。我們的積壓工作增長了兩位數，並保持在創紀錄的水平。我們提供約 10% 增長的第二季度有機銷售指導，價格是主要貢獻者。部門 EBITDA 利潤率預計將擴大 100 至 110 個基點，調整後的每股收益預計範圍為 0.72 至 0.74 美元，同比增長 15% 至 18%。在全年的基礎上，我們將我們引入的廣泛範圍的下限提高到年初。雖然我們對今年的強勁開局和目前的第二季度前景感到鼓舞，但鑑於持續的宏觀經濟不確定性，我們繼續對全年前景持謹慎態度。

Our full year adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.30 to $3.60 represents growth of 10% to 20%. The top 1/3 of our EPS range signifies our base case scenario. This accounts for normalized GDP growth, continued growth vectors acceleration and conversion of our existing backlog. The low end of this range provides a bookend, reflecting a potential macro downside scenario, which accounts for a potential degradation of global GDP that we believe will be offset by our resilient services and commercial market presence, along with additional cost mitigation actions.

我們全年調整後的每股收益指導範圍為 3.30 美元至 3.60 美元，代表增長 10% 至 20%。我們 EPS 範圍的前 1/3 表示我們的基本情況。這解釋了正常化的 GDP 增長、持續增長向量加速和我們現有積壓訂單的轉換。這個範圍的低端提供了一個書擋，反映了潛在的宏觀下行情景，這說明了全球 GDP 的潛在下降，我們認為這將被我們有彈性的服務和商業市場存在以及額外的成本緩解措施所抵消。

On the top line, we anticipate high single-digit to low double-digit organic growth, with price representing about 10%. We anticipate segment EBITA margin expansion of 90 to 120 basis points as we continue to execute our higher booked margin backlog throughout the fiscal year. Full year free cash flow conversion is expected to be between 80% to 90%. Operationally, we continue to improve our working capital management and expect further improvements from the gradual reduction of inventories as the supply chain normalizes.

最重要的是，我們預計將實現高個位數到低兩位數的有機增長，價格約佔 10%。我們預計分部 EBITA 利潤率將擴大 90 至 120 個基點，因為我們將在整個財政年度繼續執行較高的預訂利潤率積壓訂單。全年自由現金流轉換率預計在 80% 至 90% 之間。在運營方面，我們繼續改善我們的營運資金管理，並預計隨著供應鏈的正常化，庫存的逐漸減少會進一步改善。

As George mentioned, we are pleased with the strong start to the fiscal year. Whilst supply chain disruptions continue to impact our Global Products business, we see positive momentum in our field-based services. Across our vectors of growth, our pipeline remains robust, and we are well positioned to capture secular tailwinds while continuing to improve our operational execution as we navigate through the first half of the fiscal year.

正如喬治所說，我們對本財年的強勁開局感到滿意。雖然供應鏈中斷繼續影響我們的全球產品業務，但我們在現場服務中看到了積極的勢頭。在我們的增長向量中，我們的管道仍然強勁，我們有能力抓住長期順風，同時在我們度過本財年上半年的過程中繼續改善我們的運營執行力。

With that, operator, please open up the lines for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is going to come from Nigel Coe from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

You mentioned field -- timing for field orders come in at plus 1%. So maybe just -- can you just like double-click on what's causing some of the delays that perhaps you didn't expect? China, I think I understand, but outside of China.

你提到了現場——現場訂單的時間增加了 1%。所以也許只是 - 你可以雙擊導致你可能沒有預料到的一些延遲的原因嗎？中國，我想我了解，但在中國以外。

Yes, when you look at our Field orders, what is encouraging, although the install was up 1%, services was up over 10%, and we're very encouraged with the progress we're making there, Nigel. On the install side, it's mainly a couple of factors here that impacted us here in the quarter. It was the China -- the COVID lockdowns. We have an incredible pipeline, but because of the disruption and ultimately the delay in getting those closed, impacted us in the quarter, and that's 1% to 2%.

是的，當您查看我們的現場訂單時，令人鼓舞的是，儘管安裝量增長了 1%，服務增長了 10% 以上，我們對我們在那裡取得的進展感到非常鼓舞，Nigel。在安裝方面，本季度主要有幾個因素影響了我們。這是中國 - COVID lockdowns。我們有一個令人難以置信的管道，但由於中斷和最終延遲關閉這些管道，在本季度影響了我們，這是 1% 到 2%。

And then in our project-based business, as we now drive our vectors of growth around sustainability and healthy buildings, these larger projects, and a lot of these, it's hard to predict the timing of conversion. And so that amounted to another roughly 1% to 2%. Those are the key drivers as far as the orders, field orders. Nigel, the backlog is up over 11%. The pipeline continues to be strong double digits in our conversion. And so as we're now executing on the strategy, we are encouraged that our conversion is going to continue very strong here in Q2 and beyond for the year. And then now the way that we've been set up here with the backlog being up for the year really does give us a lot of confidence in our ability to be able to deliver on the guide that we provided for the full year.

然後在我們基於項目的業務中，隨著我們現在圍繞可持續性和健康建築、這些更大的項目以及其中的許多項目推動我們的增長載體，很難預測轉換的時間。因此，這相當於另外大約 1% 到 2%。這些是訂單、現場訂單的關鍵驅動因素。奈傑爾，積壓訂單增加了 11% 以上。在我們的轉換中，管道繼續保持兩位數的強勁增長。因此，當我們現在正在執行該戰略時，我們感到鼓舞的是，我們的轉換將在第二季度及今年以後繼續保持強勁勢頭。然後現在我們在這裡設置的方式以及今年積壓的工作確實讓我們對我們能夠交付全年提供的指南的能力充滿信心。

Great. And then my follow-up question is on the margin expansion for the full year. You've raised the bottom end by 10 basis points. So I'm curious has the mix between the segment changed. And I'm referring here to the, obviously, the strength we saw in Global Products, the weakness we saw in EMEALA. So just wondering if the mix of that margin expansion has changed at all.

偉大的。然後我的後續問題是關於全年的利潤率擴張。您已將底端提高了 10 個基點。所以我很好奇細分之間的組合是否發生了變化。顯然，我在這裡指的是我們在全球產品中看到的優勢，我們在 EMEALA 中看到的劣勢。所以只是想知道利潤率擴張的組合是否完全改變了。

We're making tremendous progress on our margins, and it's not only -- this has been, over the last couple of years, instilling a discipline around price cost. And more important about the value propositions that we're bringing to the market with our vectors of growth. And so we've got -- you see that not only in our shorter-cycle business with our Global Products and the strength that we're having in margins that's combined, not only the value proposition, but now also the additional productivity that's playing through and the leverage that we're getting on that.

我們在利潤率方面取得了巨大進步，而且它不僅 - 在過去幾年中，這一直在灌輸圍繞價格成本的紀律。更重要的是我們通過增長載體為市場帶來的價值主張。所以我們已經 - 你看到，不僅在我們的全球產品週期較短的業務中，而且我們在利潤率方面的實力相結合，不僅是價值主張，而且現在還有額外的生產力正在發揮作用通過以及我們正在獲得的槓桿作用。

And so as we projected the current year, we're going to continue. You're going to see momentum in margins because of the longer cycle business. We've got strong margins in backlog. As we increase the velocity on the turn of these projects, you're going to start to see much stronger margins come through the rest of the year. So Olivier, maybe you can comment on the segments.

因此，正如我們對今年的預測，我們將繼續。由於業務週期較長，您將看到利潤率的增長勢頭。我們在積壓訂單中獲得了豐厚的利潤。隨著我們加快這些項目的速度，您將開始看到今年剩餘時間的利潤率要高得多。那麼 Olivier，也許你可以對這些片段發表評論。

Absolutely. So one clarifying point on the orders. We expect as an impact on orders due to the move of the orders from Q1 to Q2, orders in the field to be high single digits in Q2. Regarding the margin, we expect Global Products margin to remain strong for the rest of the year. And we expect the Field margin to turn positive in Q2, probably about 51 to 100 basis points at the segment EBITA level and increased day-after significantly with a strong increase as we end the year, Nigel, in the Field business.

絕對地。因此，請澄清訂單上的一點。由於訂單從第一季度轉移到第二季度，我們預計第二季度現場訂單將達到高個位數。關於利潤率，我們預計全球產品利潤率在今年餘下時間將保持強勁。我們預計 Field 利潤率在第二季度將轉為正數，在該部門的 EBITA 水平上可能約為 51 至 100 個基點，並且隨著我們年底在 Field 業務中的 Nigel 強勁增長，日後顯著增加。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

Olivier, I want to pick up off that last point on Field margins improving. And so you guys called out unfavorable mix, both in North America and EMEALA. I want to understand that a little bit better. And then specifically on North America, I know that you guys saw the sequential improvement last quarter, but the margins now have been down year-over-year for the last 7 quarters. So just help us understand what's driving the confidence in those margins getting better from here, and what was the issue with unfavorable mix that was coming through the Field business this quarter.

奧利維爾，我想談談關於 Field 利潤率提高的最後一點。所以你們在北美和 EMEALA 都提出了不利的組合。我想更好地理解這一點。然後特別是在北美，我知道你們看到了上個季度的連續改善，但現在利潤率在過去 7 個季度中同比下降。因此，請幫助我們了解是什麼推動了人們對這些利潤率的信心從這裡開始變得更好，以及本季度現場業務出現的不利組合的問題是什麼。

So it would be from a project to project mix or larger projects flowing through in the quarter. If you look at a high level, and we have discussed that, Joe, before, we have booked orders at a higher level of margin all through last year. And those orders are now starting to flow through to the Field business.

因此，這將是從一個項目到項目組合或本季度流經的更大項目。如果你看一個高水平，我們已經討論過，喬，我們去年一直以更高的保證金水平預訂訂單。這些訂單現在開始流向現場業務。

So as indicated to Nigel earlier, we expect the field margin to improve at a segment EBITDA level in Q2 by 50 to 100 basis points and keep increasing thereafter. That would include also our North America business. The expectation for the margin increase in segment EBITDA level for North America in Q2 is expected the increase to be over a full point. So as we keep converting the backlog, as we -- which is at a higher margin, as we keep delivering our productivity initiatives, as we keep increasing the mix of our Service business in our company, which was very strong in Q1, we expect this momentum to continue in Q2. You will see the Field margin business to increase, I would say, materially between Q1 and Q4, Joe.

因此，正如早些時候向 Nigel 表示的那樣，我們預計第二季度現場利潤率將在 EBITDA 水平上提高 50 至 100 個基點，並在此後繼續增長。這也包括我們的北美業務。預計第二季度北美分部 EBITDA 水平的利潤率增長預計將超過一個整點。因此，隨著我們不斷轉換積壓訂單，因為我們 - 這是一個更高的利潤率，因為我們不斷提供我們的生產力計劃，因為我們不斷增加我們公司的服務業務組合，這在第一季度非常強勁，我們預計這種勢頭將在第二季度繼續。你會看到 Field 保證金業務增加，我想說，在第一季度和第四季度之間，喬。

Okay. It's good to hear. And I don't usually ask questions on the North America resi business because it's a small portion of the overall portfolio, but it was pretty interesting to see that business down 20%. I think you guys called out product mix in the channel. So maybe provide a little bit more color what's happening there because it seems to be a little bit lower than what we've seen reported so far from some of your peers.

好的。很高興聽到。我通常不會問有關北美 resi 業務的問題，因為它只佔整個投資組合的一小部分，但看到該業務下降 20% 還是很有趣的。我想你們在頻道中提到了產品組合。因此，也許可以為那裡發生的事情提供更多的顏色，因為它似乎比我們迄今為止從一些同行那裡看到的報告要低一些。

Yes. When you look at our North America resi ducted business, when you look at the overall market, it's down in units in the teens. Now we were down more than that. And it's really 2 big factors here. This is where we've had -- coming into the year, we still had continued supply chain disruptions. We also had the launch of our -- a new product, the 2023 product. We worked through that. We worked through the supply chain. So although we were down further in units, we had strong pricing coming through.

是的。當你看我們的北美再投資業務時，當你看整個市場時，它的單位數量下降了十幾歲。現在我們的情況不止於此。這真的有兩個重要因素。這就是我們所經歷的——進入這一年，我們仍然有持續的供應鏈中斷。我們還推出了我們的新產品 2023 產品。我們解決了這個問題。我們通過供應鏈工作。因此，儘管我們的銷量進一步下降，但我們的定價依然強勁。

We worked with our distributors. And there's another key point to make. On our Field direct channel, which is a small portion of our distribution, we were actually up 13%. And so that's similar to what others have seen. On the distribution side, we've worked with our distributors in making sure that now, as we have continued to improve our supply chain through the quarter, that we're going to be positioned to be able to deliver on their expectations from a demand standpoint as we now go through the rest of the year.

我們與我們的經銷商合作。還有另一個關鍵點。在我們的 Field 直接渠道（占我們分銷的一小部分）上，我們實際上上漲了 13%。所以這與其他人所看到的相似。在分銷方面，我們已經與我們的分銷商合作，以確保現在，隨著我們在本季度繼續改進我們的供應鏈，我們將能夠滿足他們對需求的期望從我們現在經歷今年剩餘時間的角度來看。

And so when you look at the rest of the year, we are projecting that the market will be down high single digits in units, there will be continued strong pricing coming through and we'll be in line with the industry. And we believe that, now with our recovery of the supply chain, we actually start to pick up some of the share that we had lost over the last year due to the supply chain.

因此，當你看看今年剩下的時間時，我們預計市場將以單位數下降，價格將持續走強，我們將與行業保持一致。我們相信，現在隨著供應鏈的恢復，我們實際上開始收復去年因供應鏈而失去的部分份額。

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

If I look at roughly kind of the 350 or so where consensus is, it implies we're using the midpoint of your guidance about $2, $2.10 or so of earnings in the second half. That's about $1 per quarter by my math. Would you -- is that kind of the right type of seasonality? Would you expect fourth quarter to be above third quarter and how materially above? Maybe just give us a little bit of -- a little more color on how the third and the fourth quarters break out, EPS-wise?

如果我大致看一下共識所在的 350 點左右，這意味著我們正在使用你指導的中點，即下半年的收益約為 2 美元、2.10 美元左右。根據我的計算，這大約是每季度 1 美元。你會 - 這種季節性是正確的嗎？您預計第四季度會高於第三季度嗎？具體高於多少？也許只是給我們一點點 - 關於第三和第四季度如何突破的更多顏色，EPS-wise？

Yes. At the high level, Steve, when we look at our build for the year, we were in a very different place this year than we were last as we're now continuing to accelerate our capacity expansion across our product-based businesses. And we've seen a nice ramp, for instance, in our Applied businesses. In some cases, we're expanding capacity 2 or 3x, and we're starting to see that volume come through.

是的。在高層，史蒂夫，當我們審視我們今年的建設時，我們今年的處境與去年截然不同，因為我們現在正在繼續加速我們基於產品的業務的產能擴張。例如，我們在應用業務中看到了不錯的增長。在某些情況下，我們正在將容量擴大 2 倍或 3 倍，並且我們開始看到該容量已經實現。

And then we have worked with our supply chain. So we're very much aligned now going into our seasonal ramp as well as the recovery of our backlog to be able to begin to accelerate here in Q2, and that will continue through the seasonality that we see in Q3 and Q4. And so we're in a very different place than we were a year ago in being able to execute on that ramp. And I'm very encouraged with the work that we've done, especially across our applied business where, from a core strength, that is our strength, and we're beginning to see that pick up across the board. So Olivier, I don't know if you got any additional.

然後我們與我們的供應鏈合作。因此，我們現在非常一致地進入我們的季節性增長以及我們積壓的恢復，以便能夠在第二季度開始加速，並且這將持續到我們在第三季度和第四季度看到的季節性。因此，與一年前相比，我們能夠在那個斜坡上執行的位置非常不同。我對我們所做的工作感到非常鼓舞，尤其是在我們的應用業務中，從核心優勢出發，這就是我們的優勢，我們開始看到這一點全面提升。 Olivier，我不知道你有沒有補充。

No, not much more to add. The backlog conversion now is going to have its full impact. It will be very strong from Q2 onwards. The productivity initiatives are still well on track. We are identifying new productivity initiatives all through the year. The backlog is very resilient. Our service mix is very strong, accelerating significantly across the portfolio. So we see margin expansion clearly in the second half, Steve.

不，沒有更多要補充的了。積壓的轉換現在將產生全部影響。從第二季度開始，它將非常強勁。生產力舉措仍在進行中。我們全年都在確定新的生產力舉措。積壓非常有彈性。我們的服務組合非常強大，在整個產品組合中顯著加速。所以我們看到下半年利潤率明顯擴張，史蒂夫。

So like is $1 around the right number for 3Q and then it kind of steps up a bit from there? Or is it more fourth quarter weighted, maybe just a little more precision to get people in line?

那麼 3 季度的正確數字是 1 美元，然後它從那裡有點上升？還是第四季度的權重更大，也許只是讓人們排隊更精確一點？

Roughly, you're in the ballpark, Steve, indeed.

粗略地說，你在球場上，史蒂夫，確實如此。

Okay. And then one -- just one last one on nonres activity. You said that things are -- you expect things to pick up here. What are you seeing in January on that front? I assume you're seeing some positive things? And what's the latest outlook on how things trend in the back half of the calendar year?

好的。然後是關於非資源活動的最後一個。你說事情是——你希望事情會在這裡好起來。你在一月份在這方面看到了什麼？我假設你看到了一些積極的事情？日曆年下半年的最新趨勢是什麼？

Yes. When we look at our pipeline and we track our pipeline very closely, especially as it relates to all of the -- our growth vectors and then the overall general market, when you look at the Dodge number and when you look at that growth, we are lagging that. So we're seeing significant opportunity there as that plays through. We are watching the ABI, which is longer term from projects that are coming to market. It did soften in November. It did come back and stabilize in December.

是的。當我們查看我們的管道並非常密切地跟踪我們的管道時，特別是因為它與我們的所有增長向量以及整個一般市場有關，當您查看道奇數字並查看該增長時，我們落後於那個。所以我們在那裡看到了巨大的機會。我們正在關注 ABI，這是即將上市的項目的長期指標。它確實在 11 月軟化了。它確實在 12 月回歸併穩定下來。

And so for us, it's -- and then when you look at our mix of our businesses, with the demand for our core applied business, when we look at our chillers, when you look at industrial refrigeration, when you look at our data center offerings, across our supply -- across that portfolio, we're seeing incredible demand. And we're working to make sure that we're executing on the capacity expansions that we made -- that we started over a year ago to be positioned to be able to support that demand, and we're making good progress, Steve. So from a nonres, as far as our mix and where we see our strength to be, we see continued very strong activity building in the pipeline.

所以對我們來說，它是——然後當你看我們的業務組合時，當你看我們的核心應用業務的需求時，當你看我們的冷卻器時，當你看工業製冷時，當你看我們的數據中心時產品，在我們的供應中——在整個產品組合中，我們看到了令人難以置信的需求。我們正在努力確保我們正在執行我們所做的產能擴張 - 我們一年多前開始定位能夠支持這種需求，並且我們正在取得良好進展，史蒂夫。因此，從 nonres 來看，就我們的組合和我們認為我們的優勢所在而言，我們看到管道中持續進行非常強勁的活動。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe I just wanted to start off perhaps with the inventory and the cash flow because I think the inventory was up about $400 million sequentially, and it seems like it's a mix of kind of too much supply and too little demand in things like resi and then too much demand and too little supply in some other areas like Commercial HVAC. So maybe just help us understand kind of what's going on in that inventory balance. And then what does that mean for the pace at which free cash flow improves over the balance of the year? Do you think free cash flow can be up year-on-year in the current second quarter? Or it's more of a sort of second half recovery on cash?

也許我只是想從庫存和現金流開始，因為我認為庫存連續增加了大約 4 億美元，而且似乎是 resi 等供應過多和需求過少的混合體，然後在商業暖通空調等其他一些領域，需求過多而供應過少。因此，也許只是幫助我們了解庫存餘額中發生的事情。那麼這對於自由現金流在今年餘下時間的改善速度意味著什麼？您認為當前第二季度的自由現金流能同比增長嗎？或者它更像是一種下半年的現金復蘇？

So if you look at, first of all, the full guide, it's unchanged, 80% to 90% free cash flow for the full year. If you look at the seasonality of your question, we believe we're going to go back to historical free cash flow generation seasonality. That means that we should be year-to-date at the end of Q2, close to breakeven from a free cash flow standpoint. You can infer from that, that we would be positive in Q4 -- in Q2, I'm sorry.

所以，如果你首先看一下完整的指南，它沒有變化，全年 80% 到 90% 的自由現金流。如果您查看問題的季節性，我們相信我們將回到歷史上自由現金流產生的季節性。這意味著我們應該在第二季度末達到年初至今，從自由現金流的角度來看接近盈虧平衡。你可以從中推斷出，我們在第四季度是積極的——對不起，在第二季度。

So breakeven year-to-date at the end of Q2, positive in Q2. You're right, inventory was the key variable explaining what happened in free cash flow in Q1. Largely, George covered that. Resi and some mismatch of inventory is what is explaining this trend. We believe that this is going to keep improving all through the year, we have detailed action in place. And we believe that breaking even after the first half is an achievable goal from a free cash flow standpoint.

因此，今年第二季度末達到盈虧平衡，第二季度為正。沒錯，庫存是解釋第一季度自由現金流發生情況的關鍵變量。很大程度上，喬治涵蓋了這一點。 Resi 和一些庫存不匹配是解釋這種趨勢的原因。我們相信這將在全年不斷改善，我們已經制定了詳細的行動。而且我們認為，從自由現金流的角度來看，上半年實現收支平衡是可以實現的目標。

So Julian, just to add to that, as you look at our Commercial Applied business, in many product lines, we're doubling, in some cases, tripling. And we're in the process of building up and being able to achieve that output through the course of the year. So we're in a build and we're making good progress on the Applied business. When you look at our total Applied business with what we do externally as well as internally, it's up very strong here in the first quarter.

所以朱利安，補充一點，當你看我們的商業應用業務時，在許多產品線中，我們正在翻倍，在某些情況下，翻了三倍。我們正在建立並能夠在這一年中實現這一產出。所以我們正在建設中，我們在應用業務上取得了良好的進展。當你從我們在外部和內部所做的事情來看我們的整體應用業務時，第一季度這裡的增長非常強勁。

And then the second is what Olivier said, as we work through the residential disruption, it's really come down to one plant supporting our residential business with the disruption that we had really coming into the quarter. We've worked through that, and we're positioned to adjust. Given the mismatch we had, we've lined out with our distributors relative to what they expect. And we have confidence that, that's going to normalize here over the next quarter or 2.

然後第二個是奧利維爾所說的，當我們解決住宅中斷時，它真的歸結為一個支持我們住宅業務的工廠，我們真正進入本季度的中斷。我們已經解決了這個問題，我們準備好進行調整。鑑於我們的不匹配，我們已經與我們的分銷商就他們的期望進行了比較。我們有信心，這將在下一季度或第二季度恢復正常。

And then I just wanted to circle back to the North America Field business again, because you've had, I think, 7 quarters now of down margins year-on-year. The Q1 margin was 200 points lower than it was 2 years ago. And I think you'd mentioned mix as a headwind specifically in the first quarter, but clearly, there have been issues predating that, pulling down the margin. And it seems like it's taken longer than you'd expected to get that North America Field margin to turn the corner.

然後我只想再次回到北美現場業務，因為我認為你現在有 7 個季度的利潤率同比下降。第一季度利潤率比 2 年前低 200 個百分點。而且我認為你在第一季度特別提到了混合作為逆風，但顯然，在此之前存在問題，拉低了利潤率。似乎花費的時間比你預期的要長，才能讓北美球場的利潤率出現轉機。

So I think clearly, the guide embeds an improvement there getting to that $1 of EPS, for example, in Q3. But maybe give us a bit more color on what you're doing kind of inside that organization to get the margins to turn around. And how much of the improvement in margin is that internal self-help versus getting some sort of macro or supplier benefits?

因此，我清楚地認為，該指南嵌入了一個改進，例如在第三季度達到 1 美元的每股收益。但是，也許可以給我們更多關於您在該組織內部所做的事情的顏色，以扭轉利潤率。內部自助與獲得某種宏觀或供應商利益相比，利潤率的提高有多少？

And so let me touch on that, and I'll turn it over to Olivier. When you look at the turn, so what we've booked over the last -- it's really been the last year, 15 months, what's been turning some of -- the longer cycle projects that are turning now and you look at what's going to turn second, third and fourth quarter, a much higher mix, Julian, relative to the margin that we booked into the backlog. And that margin is tied to much greater value propositions. And then ultimately, in installed base, it's going to spin off service.

所以讓我談談這個，我會把它交給奧利維爾。當你看轉折點時，我們在過去預訂的——實際上是去年，15 個月，一些正在轉折的——現在正在轉折的更長周期的項目，你看看會發生什麼轉向第二、第三和第四季度，朱利安，相對於我們在積壓訂單中預定的利潤率，組合要高得多。而這個利潤率與更大的價值主張相關。然後最終，在已安裝的基礎上，它將剝離服務。

And so we're going through the last of the tail that was prior to this inflationary period of projects that are still coming through. But I have confidence that when we look at what we've been -- how we've been building these projects, costing and then ultimately executing, you're going to start to see a nice pickup in margins. And I think -- and then the other factor is that the velocity of our turn, because of the improvement in the supply chain, you'll start to see much higher productivity because the velocity of being able to turn these projects more consistently as we work through the year. Those are the 2 big factors. Olivier, maybe you can comment on the margin rate.

因此，我們正在經歷這個仍在進行的項目的通貨膨脹期之前的最後一個尾巴。但我有信心，當我們審視我們一直以來的情況時——我們是如何構建這些項目、計算成本然後最終執行的，你將開始看到利潤率的良好回升。我認為 - 然後另一個因素是我們轉向的速度，由於供應鏈的改進，你會開始看到更高的生產力，因為我們能夠更一致地轉向這些項目的速度全年工作。這些是2大因素。奧利維爾，也許你可以對保證金率發表評論。

Absolutely. So as a byproduct of the speed of the backlog conversion, we would see, as I indicated earlier, Julian, margin expansion, I can go a bit more into the details of the numbers here. So probably in Q2, we will expect segment EBITDA margin to increase close to a full point. And today, for Q3, we are planning actually close to a 4-point margin improvement in this business, not assuming a significant change in churn rates of the backlog.

絕對地。因此，作為積壓轉換速度的副產品，我們會看到，正如我之前指出的，Julian，保證金擴張，我可以在這裡詳細介紹這些數字。因此，可能在第二季度，我們預計分部 EBITDA 利潤率將增長接近一個完整點。而今天，對於第三季度，我們計劃實際上將該業務的利潤率提高近 4 個百分點，而不是假設積壓的客戶流失率發生重大變化。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis from Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

And welcome, Jim to the call and our world again here. But guys, I think that the story, really this cycle, has been about pricing power. And I'm kind of curious to see as demand kind of flattens out here and maybe some of the big COVID drivers kind of anniversary, how -- what's your confidence that price is something that you can continue to capture? And I don't really mean in your backlog. What's in the backlog is in the backlog, I suppose, but in forward contracts, you start to think about back half of '23 and into '24 .

歡迎吉姆再次來到我們的世界。但是伙計們，我認為這個故事，實際上是這個週期，一直是關於定價權的。而且我有點好奇地看到這裡的需求有點趨於平緩，也許一些大的 COVID 司機有點週年紀念日，你對價格是你可以繼續捕捉的東西有什麼信心？我並不是說你的積壓工作。我想，積壓的就是積壓的，但在遠期合同中，你開始考慮 23 年的後半部分和 24 年的後半部分。

Scott, as we look at what we've done as we've been executing on the strategy that we outlined a couple of years back and where we are in that journey, it's really now capitalizing on a much bigger value proposition as we focus on our vectors of growth. And that's not only in how we pull together our combined capabilities within our products, but now with OpenBlue and ultimately are creating solutions that deliver on an outcome for our customers. And the outcome is typically focused on energy reduction, obviously heightened indoor environmental quality and then ultimately leading to an autonomous building.

斯科特，當我們審視我們在執行幾年前概述的戰略時所做的工作以及我們在這段旅程中所處的位置，它現在確實在利用一個更大的價值主張，因為我們專注於我們的增長載體。這不僅體現在我們如何將我們的綜合能力整合到我們的產品中，而且現在與 OpenBlue 一起，最終正在創建能夠為我們的客戶帶來成果的解決方案。結果通常側重於節能，明顯提高室內環境質量，然後最終導致自主建築。

And as we focused on our core and then when you look at the contribution that our HVAC business has to being able to achieve those outcomes, it is significant. And so the value proposition comes with being able to create a solution that's very different than what historically has been provided, leveraging our technology and then being able to really leverage the core in how we ultimately deliver on that with the technology that we have in our products.

當我們專注於我們的核心時，然後當您查看我們的 HVAC 業務對能夠實現這些成果所做出的貢獻時，這是非常重要的。因此，價值主張伴隨著能夠創建一個與歷史上提供的解決方案截然不同的解決方案，利用我們的技術，然後能夠真正利用我們最終如何利用我們擁有的技術實現這一目標的核心產品。

And so we're confident that when you look at how we're pricing today, for the value proposition we bring and the new products that we're bringing to market, our new product investment is up about 25%, 28% year-on-year. We've got the leading portfolio in heat pumps. Heat pumps now today are going to be a big part of the solution in being able to reduce energy while we're continuing to enhance the indoor air quality. And we have new heat pumps pretty much across the board where that technology is being applied across our entire portfolio, from the most complex industrial applications with our chillers and industrial refrigeration across all of our commercial products, rooftops as well as our applied air-cooled chillers going into data centers and then across our residential portfolio.

因此，我們有信心，當您查看我們今天的定價方式時，對於我們帶來的價值主張和我們推向市場的新產品，我們的新產品投資每年增長約 25%、28%-年。我們擁有領先的熱泵產品組合。今天，熱泵將成為解決方案的重要組成部分，能夠在我們繼續提高室內空氣質量的同時減少能源消耗。我們幾乎全面採用了新的熱泵，該技術正在我們的整個產品組合中得到應用，從最複雜的工業應用到我們的冷水機和工業製冷，再到我們所有的商業產品、屋頂以及我們的應用風冷冷水機進入數據中心，然後進入我們的住宅產品組合。

So I'm confident that with the technology, the value proposition and then our ability to fundamentally change how we serve our customers with solutions that focus on outputs delivering for them, we're seeing significant momentum on that.

因此，我相信憑藉技術、價值主張以及我們從根本上改變我們為客戶提供專注於為他們提供產出的解決方案的服務方式的能力，我們看到了巨大的發展勢頭。

That's helpful, George. And when you break -- I mean it certainly makes a ton of sense in HVAC. When you think about Fire & Security, how has that sales pitch kind of changed over the last few years? I mean I certainly understand the connected building, but how specifically has that value proposition, I guess, which is so tangible in HVAC, but perhaps less so in Fire & Security. Maybe you can update us there.

這很有幫助，喬治。當你壞了——我的意思是它在 HVAC 中肯定有很多意義。當您想到 Fire & Security 時，過去幾年的銷售宣傳方式發生了怎樣的變化？我的意思是我當然理解互聯建築，但我猜這個價值主張具體有何意義，這在 HVAC 中是如此有形，但在消防與安全中可能就不那麼明顯了。也許你可以在那裡更新我們。

Yes. The way that we've leveraged our Fire & Security portfolio today, it's still very attractive. It's still 40% of our revenues. It's core to building systems. On the digital side, they are critical systems that do integrate with an overall smart building. And because of the sensors that these systems bring into the building, very important for the data that we collect within OpenBlue and how we ultimately create a smart building. So it starts there.

是的。我們今天利用我們的消防和安全產品組合的方式仍然非常有吸引力。它仍然占我們收入的 40%。它是構建系統的核心。在數字方面，它們是與整體智能建築集成的關鍵系統。由於這些系統帶入建築物的傳感器，對於我們在 OpenBlue 中收集的數據以及我們最終如何創建智能建築非常重要。所以它從那裡開始。

Now you would argue that it's more around the security systems. So whether it be access control, intrusion or video, those are very important sensors and systems that historically have been separate and apart, but then ultimately converge with our building controls and the other digital systems within the building that with -- now with OpenBlue, we can bridge all of those systems into one solution, into one data set. So it starts there.

現在你會爭辯說它更多的是圍繞安全系統。因此，無論是訪問控制、入侵還是視頻，這些都是非常重要的傳感器和系統，它們在歷史上一直是獨立的，但最終會與我們的建築控制和建築內的其他數字系統融合——現在與 OpenBlue，我們可以將所有這些系統連接成一個解決方案，一個數據集。所以它從那裡開始。

And then from a fire standpoint that when we install a fire system, that the value proposition that we bring through service is significant in our ability to be able to connect and monitor and ultimately be very proactive in how we support our customers through service. So those are the 2 -- when you think about Fire & Security, the value proposition that it has into the solution set that we're building and ultimately differentiating the outputs that we can create for the customers that we serve, Scott.

然後從消防的角度來看，當我們安裝消防系統時，我們通過服務帶來的價值主張對於我們能夠連接和監控並最終積極主動地通過服務支持客戶的能力具有重要意義。所以這些就是 2 - 當你考慮消防和安全時，它在我們正在構建的解決方案集中具有的價值主張，並最終區分我們可以為我們服務的客戶創建的輸出，Scott。

Our next question comes from Noah Kaye from Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Noah Kaye。

Circling back to supply chain health. Can you give us a little bit of a better sense of what you saw across the business lines during the quarter, particularly in Global Products? Maybe quantify any impact on how much revenue was pushed. And then just your line of sight on the supply chain helping that improving pace of backlog conversion.

回到供應鏈健康。您能否讓我們更好地了解本季度各業務線的情況，尤其是在全球產品方面？也許量化對推高收入的影響。然後只是您對供應鏈的視線有助於提高積壓轉換的速度。

Yes. Looking at our Global Products, when you look at the impact that we had, and I think the other point to make here on our Global Products volume, we had a fire in a warehouse within our fire suppression business. It impacted the finished goods that we had stored. And although we work to try to recover that in the quarter, that impacted our growth rate at the product level about 2% or 3%. So that is a big factor. We're going to recover that volume here in the second quarter and most of it in the second quarter, but maybe into the third quarter. So it's worthy to mention that.

是的。看看我們的全球產品，當你看看我們所產生的影響時，我想在我們的全球產品量上要強調的另一點是，我們滅火業務的倉庫發生了火災。它影響了我們儲存的成品。儘管我們努力在本季度恢復這一點，但這影響了我們在產品層面的增長率約 2% 或 3%。所以這是一個很大的因素。我們將在第二季度恢復這一數量，其中大部分在第二季度恢復，但可能會進入第三季度。所以值得一提。

The resi demand hit us for another roughly 1% to 2%. And then when we look at China and then the ability to be able to -- we're significantly ramping up our Applied businesses. So when you look at our Applied mix, we're up double digit across the board. And so we're confident that with the capacity expansion, with the work that we've done with our supply base and making sure we have visibility to the volumes as we ramp, like I said earlier, in some cases, we're doubling or tripling our volumes in our Applied space.

resi 需求使我們又受到了大約 1% 到 2% 的打擊。然後當我們看看中國，然後是能夠做到的能力時——我們正在顯著提升我們的應用業務。因此，當您查看我們的 Applied 組合時，我們全面增長了兩位數。因此，我們有信心通過產能擴張，通過我們對供應基地所做的工作，並確保我們在增加產量時能夠看到產量，就像我之前說的那樣，在某些情況下，我們正在翻倍或將應用空間的體積增加三倍。

So I'm confident that although -- and then when you look at our total product units, we're relatively flat because some of the units do go into our direct channel solutions. So we're going to be ramping here. We're going to deliver unit growth here as we position for Q2. That will continue to expand as we go through Q3 and Q4. Those are the key factors, Noah, that are -- that have been impacting our ability to be able to turn.

所以我有信心，雖然 - 然後當你看我們的總產品單位時，我們相對持平，因為一些單位確實進入了我們的直接渠道解決方案。所以我們要在這裡加速。當我們為第二季度定位時，我們將在這裡實現單位增長。隨著我們經歷第三季度和第四季度，這種情況將繼續擴大。諾亞，這些是影響我們轉身能力的關鍵因素。

Okay. Very helpful. And then just wanted to circle back to orders timing. Maybe we can focus particularly on sustainability. We look at the pipeline growing, was it 26%, versus the orders growth in the quarter. We've obviously had a lot of significant relevant legislation and policy. How much of this is that playing into the actual timing as clients figure out the implications? And are we waiting for things like treasury guidance before more folks sign? Is there any kind of an expected air pocket here? Or do you expect that conversion to significantly increase in the next quarter or 2?

好的。很有幫助。然後只想回到訂單時間。也許我們可以特別關注可持續性。我們看看管道的增長，是 26% 與本季度的訂單增長相比。我們顯然有很多重要的相關立法和政策。當客戶弄清楚其含義時，其中有多少會影響實際時間？在更多人簽署之前，我們是否在等待財政部指導之類的事情？這裡有什麼預期的氣穴嗎？還是您預計下個季度或第二個季度的轉化率會顯著增加？

We're expecting that this is going to continue to significantly increase. When you look at the IRA, there's $369 billion in incentives over the next 10 years. We believe -- and it's all focused on electrification, which we deliver through heat pumps. It's focused on impact on grid capacity and generation, which we do incorporate renewable supply into our solutions and then just overall energy efficiency. This is right in our sweet spot.

我們預計這將繼續顯著增加。看看 IRA，未來 10 年的激勵措施將達到 3690 億美元。我們相信 - 這一切都集中在我們通過熱泵提供的電氣化上。它專注於對電網容量和發電的影響，我們確實將可再生能源供應納入我們的解決方案，然後是整體能源效率。這正是我們的最佳選擇。

And so we think the $369 billion actually multiplied by 5 to 10x given the amount of resource that will be put to work in being able to deliver on our customers' sustainability goals. And so when you look at the pipeline that we're working to convert, it's well over $7 billion. We had -- last year, that had ramped up to about $1 billion last year. We see that accelerating over the course of the year. These are larger projects, so it's hard to predict the timing of conversion. But our teams, we've got the team on the field that, with the depth and expertise, I think that it fundamentally changes how we can go about serving our customers with the type of solutions that we're developing.

因此，考慮到為實現客戶的可持續發展目標而投入的資源量，我們認為 3690 億美元實際上增加了 5 到 10 倍。因此，當您查看我們正在努力轉換的管道時，它的價值遠遠超過 70 億美元。去年，我們已經增加到大約 10 億美元。我們看到這種情況在一年中加速。這些都是較大的項目，因此很難預測轉換的時間。但是我們的團隊，我們擁有該領域的團隊，憑藉深度和專業知識，我認為它從根本上改變了我們如何使用我們正在開發的解決方案為客戶提供服務。

And all of that is delivered -- when you think about the optimal solution, it's not just the equipment because we have leadership equipment. We're developing a leadership portfolio of heat pumps. But it's how the equipment comes together with our digital platform that ultimately delivers on our customers' expectations. And that's what's going to, I think, differentiate us, Noah, as we build -- not only build the pipeline, but begin to convert and capitalize on the opportunity ahead.

所有這些都已交付——當您考慮最佳解決方案時，不僅僅是設備，因為我們擁有領先的設備。我們正在開發領先的熱泵產品組合。但正是這些設備與我們的數字平台結合在一起，最終實現了客戶的期望。我認為，這就是讓我們與眾不同的地方，Noah，在我們建設的過程中——不僅要建設管道，還要開始轉變並利用未來的機會。

And just one last note in Europe. It's similar in Europe. I mean we talked about the IRA. But we've been working very closely with the EU with a number of their strategies, the Green Deal, net zero by 2050. They've got the EU level legislation around. They got climate law. They got an energy performance of buildings initiative. And then, more recently, it was the REPowerEU, focusing on the independence from Russian fossil fuels. All of these activities, we've been aligned working and making sure we're aligned so that we're going to be positioned to ultimately achieve the goals that they're setting out to achieve.

還有歐洲的最後一個音符。在歐洲也是類似的。我的意思是我們談到了愛爾蘭共和軍。但我們一直在與歐盟密切合作，制定他們的一些戰略，即到 2050 年實現淨零排放的綠色協議。他們已經制定了歐盟級別的立法。他們有氣候法。他們獲得了建築能源性能倡議。然後，最近，它是 REPowerEU，重點關注俄羅斯化石燃料的獨立性。所有這些活動，我們一直在努力並確保我們保持一致，以便我們能夠最終實現他們設定的目標。

That's very helpful color. And I'll correct myself, that Healthy Buildings pipeline was out 26% and sustainability up 20%.

這是非常有用的顏色。我會更正自己，健康建築管道減少了 26%，可持續性增加了 20%。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague from Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

I just wanted to actually come back to, I guess, a couple of topics that have already been addressed, but just to really kind of clarify. First, just on the notion of margins improving on kind of acceleration of execution out of the backlog, it doesn't seem like that's what you're guiding. I don't know if you updated the volume forecast for the year. But I guess your guide sort of assumes kind of little or no volume growth. So I guess the first question is, is it that you expect acceleration to happen, but you're not quite willing to guide that way yet? Or is there some governing factor, supply chain, labor on the job sites, that sort of thing that you're looking to get past first?

我想實際上我只是想回到已經討論過的幾個主題，但只是為了真正澄清一下。首先，就利潤率提高積壓執行速度的概念而言，這似乎並不是您所指導的。我不知道你是否更新了今年的銷量預測。但我猜你的指南有點假設數量增長很少或沒有。所以我想第一個問題是，您是否期望加速發生，但您還不太願意以這種方式進行指導？或者是否有一些管理因素、供應鏈、工作現場的勞動力，以及您希望首先克服的那種事情？

So if you look at the margin acceleration, which is a byproduct of the backlog conversion, as you said, Jeff, that is not really a variable associated with unit volumes. If you look at the Field business, which is about $16 billion of revenue for the enterprise, this is more and more a business which is solution based, where you need less and less a relevant measure solution because we sell services, we sell sustainability, we sell indoor air quality. So the margin acceleration is a byproduct of just the conversion, and we are planning, to your point, for volume to be growing low single digits, about 2% for the back half of the year.

因此，如果您查看利潤加速，這是積壓轉換的副產品，正如您所說，Jeff，這實際上並不是與單位數量相關的變量。如果你看看 Field 業務，它為企業帶來了大約 160 億美元的收入，這越來越成為一個基於解決方案的業務，你越來越不需要相關的衡量解決方案，因為我們銷售服務，我們銷售可持續性，我們出售室內空氣質量。因此，利潤率加速只是轉換的副產品，我們正計劃，按照你的觀點，銷量將以低個位數增長，今年下半年約為 2%。

Just a comment on that, Jeff. As we have instituted over the last 2 years, the significant improvement in our ability to strategically price and then make sure that we're within that pricing, we're incorporating future inflation. So as we're costing in these longer-cycle projects, making sure we have the right cost and the right terms and conditions and the like, that has significantly improved.

只是對此發表評論，傑夫。正如我們在過去 2 年中所製定的那樣，我們的戰略定價能力顯著提高，然後確保我們在該定價範圍內，我們正在考慮未來的通貨膨脹。因此，當我們在這些較長周期的項目中進行成本核算時，確保我們擁有正確的成本以及正確的條款和條件等，這已經得到顯著改善。

And so when we look at what's going to turn in the next 3 quarters, a high percentage of the projects that are going to turn are in backlog. And the margin is, as we have been working through the older backlog that was priced prior to the inflationary period, that is becoming less and less. And so we're confident that what's in the margin in backlog is a significant step-up. Now it's just our ability to be able to minimize disruption, get more precise relative to the material flows that support these projects. And by doing so, we accelerate the velocity of the turn.

因此，當我們查看未來 3 個季度將發生什麼時，將要發生變化的項目中有很大一部分處於積壓狀態。而且，由於我們一直在處理在通貨膨脹時期之前定價的舊積壓訂單，因此利潤率越來越低。因此，我們相信積壓的利潤率是一個重要的提升。現在，我們只有能力能夠最大限度地減少中斷，更精確地了解支持這些項目的物質流。通過這樣做，我們加快了轉彎的速度。

And what that does, it gives us higher productivity and then also, from an inventory standpoint, our ability to be able to recognize revenue with the execution on a shorter cycle. So that's a big element. And so I think we're cautious relative to the continued improvement that we're seeing in those factors, but we're confident that the margins that have been booked are going to turn and turn to be significantly improved over the course of the year.

這樣做的目的是，它為我們提供了更高的生產力，然後從庫存的角度來看，我們能夠通過在更短的周期內執行來確認收入。所以這是一個很大的因素。因此，我認為相對於我們在這些因素中看到的持續改善，我們持謹慎態度，但我們相信，已預訂的利潤率將在這一年中得到顯著改善.

And that partially addresses my second question. But I did want to come back to kind of projects and mix. So you pointed to kind of large projects being mix negative in the quarter. And I think a lot of the kind of OpenBlue healthy buildings, indoor air would inherently often be larger projects. Is it an issue that the stuff that's coming through the backlog is also, as you say, maybe wasn't priced appropriately for the inflation that was coming but also just inherently had less of the newer stuff embedded in it? Really want to kind of understand if we're waiting on big projects to come through to that, in fact, when we convert them, they're margin-accretive to the equation.

這部分解決了我的第二個問題。但我確實想回到某種項目並進行混音。所以你指出了本季度一些大型項目的負面影響。而且我認為很多 OpenBlue 健康建築，室內空氣本來就往往是更大的項目。正如您所說，通過積壓的東西也可能沒有針對即將到來的通貨膨脹進行適當定價，但也只是固有地嵌入了較少的新東西，這是否是一個問題？真的很想了解我們是否正在等待大項目實現這一點，事實上，當我們轉換它們時，它們會增加利潤。

I mean it's actually the opposite, Jeff. We -- when you look at our core, we have focused our field-based business on our strategy to really differentiate and capitalize on the growth vectors, which is ultimately the energy reduction, the healthy environment and then overall automation of building. Making sure that everything we do is deploying our core capability, core technology, getting it connected and then ultimately converting it to a service.

我的意思是實際上恰恰相反，傑夫。我們——當你看我們的核心時，我們將我們基於現場的業務集中在我們的戰略上，以真正區分和利用增長向量，最終是能源減少、健康環境，然後是建築的整體自動化。確保我們所做的一切都是在部署我們的核心能力、核心技術，將其連接起來，然後最終將其轉化為服務。

So by doing so, it has refocused the business so that we're -- the value proposition is greater with what we do. And taking out a lot of the historical contracting that we might have done that ultimately was low margin and didn't convert to services, there's a much higher focus on leveraging our core, obviously, leveraging digital and then ultimately delivering on outcomes that historically hadn't been achieved.

因此，通過這樣做，它重新調整了業務重點，以便我們 - 我們所做的價值主張更大。並且排除我們可能完成的許多歷史合同，這些合同最終利潤率很低並且沒有轉化為服務，我們更加關注利用我們的核心，顯然，利用數字然後最終實現歷史上沒有的結果已經實現了。

And so I think from that standpoint, when you look at our applied product business, we're up -- it's up double digit with the applied products flowing into our channel, which ultimately is helping us create a bigger installed base. It's also getting the connectivity to that base, which then drives us to be able to create new value propositions with the data that ultimately we use from that installed base.

因此，我認為從這個角度來看，當您查看我們的應用產品業務時，我們正在上升——隨著應用產品流入我們的渠道，它增長了兩位數，這最終幫助我們建立了更大的安裝基礎。它還與該基地建立了連接，這促使我們能夠利用最終從該已安裝基地使用的數據創建新的價值主張。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

I just kind of wanted to pick off where Jeff just left off because I'm not sure I'm totally getting it. So I mean if we think about -- it seems like unfavorable mix was the big cause of the weaker margins in the Field business this quarter, but it seems like you do have confidence that then unfavorable mix will not be a factor throughout the rest of the year. So I guess, what is the risk that larger projects come through, again, greater than you expected in the second quarter to the fourth quarter driving then unfavorable mix again? That's the piece that I'm just not getting.

我只是想從 Jeff 剛剛結束的地方繼續，因為我不確定我是否完全理解它。所以我的意思是，如果我們考慮 - 不利的組合似乎是本季度現場業務利潤率下降的主要原因，但似乎你確實有信心不利的組合不會成為整個其餘部分的一個因素那一年。所以我想，更大的項目再次出現的風險是什麼，比你在第二季度到第四季度的預期更大，再次推動不利的組合？那是我沒有得到的部分。

Yes, a simple fundamental is we track how we book and what was booked from a cost standpoint and how does that tie to the value proposition and then how it turns. And so Nicole, when we talk about mix, on a forward-looking basis, you have a much -- every quarter, you have less of the older projects that maybe didn't incorporate the higher inflationary rates that we now have experienced over the last 18 months or so.

是的，一個簡單的基礎是我們從成本的角度跟踪我們如何預訂以及預訂了什麼，以及這如何與價值主張聯繫起來，然後是如何轉變。所以妮可，當我們談論混合時，在前瞻性的基礎上，你有很多 - 每個季度，你有更少的舊項目可能沒有包含我們現在經歷的更高通貨膨脹率過去 18 個月左右。

And so when we talk about mix, it's part of that as well as our ability to be able to then -- everything we've been booking from a strategy standpoint is more aligned to how we create an installed base and ultimately get a recurring revenue from that installed base with service. And that is -- when we talk about on a go-forward basis, that continues to improve, recognizing that we still have projects that will be turning that didn't necessarily have that factored in.

因此，當我們談論混合時，它是其中的一部分，也是我們能夠做到這一點的一部分——我們從戰略角度預訂的一切都更符合我們如何創建安裝基礎並最終獲得經常性收入從具有服務的已安裝基礎。那就是——當我們在前進的基礎上談論時，它會繼續改善，認識到我們仍然有一些項目將要轉變，但不一定考慮到這一點。

Okay. That's really helpful clarification. And then the second thing I just wanted to hit on is the gross -- sorry, the Global Products margins have been really impressive and I think a big driver of upside or offset to field weakness for several quarters now. I guess like what's the confidence that you can continue to improve Global Products margins from here. At some point, do you kind of see somewhat of a margin ceiling?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後我只想說的第二件事是毛利率——抱歉，全球產品的利潤率確實令人印象深刻，我認為這是幾個季度以來上行或抵消領域疲軟的重要推動力。我想你有什麼信心可以從這裡繼續提高全球產品的利潤率。在某些時候，您是否有點看到保證金上限？

Yes. If you look at today, so we believe we're going to be able to maintain the margin in Global Products and keep improving the margin in the Field. I know Nicole, just to go back to your prior question on mix, the backlog conversion is the big variable for mix improvement more than anything else. And we have high confidence in that now happening with no improvement in lead time.

是的。如果你看看今天，那麼我們相信我們將能夠保持全球產品的利潤率並不斷提高該領域的利潤率。我認識 Nicole，回到你之前關於混合的問題，積壓轉換是混合改進的重要變量。我們對現在正在發生的事情充滿信心，而且交貨時間沒有任何改善。

Going back to your global margin question, you go back to what George has indicated, we are mainly exposed to the commercial market today in Global Products. Resi is a small proportion of our portfolio. And in Global Products, we are investing heavily in pump. If you look at the new product introductions today, 90% of them are very strong heat pump capabilities. We bought a small asset also in the quarter with [hybrid heat] pump. So we believe that the channel, the strength of the portfolio is going to keep allowing us to maintain a strong margin in Global Products. And there was no -- if you look at the macro, Nicole, today from a commercial standpoint, it's still strong for commercial.

回到你的全球保證金問題，你回到喬治所說的，我們今天主要接觸全球產品的商業市場。 Resi 只占我們產品組合的一小部分。在 Global Products，我們正在大力投資泵。如果你看今天的新產品介紹，90%都是很強的熱泵能力。我們也在本季度用 [混合熱] 泵購買了一項小型資產。因此，我們相信渠道、產品組合的實力將繼續讓我們在全球產品中保持強勁的利潤率。沒有——如果你從商業的角度來看今天的宏，妮可，它對商業來說仍然很強大。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

So just a follow-up on the IRA. Wondering if that is something that you guys expect to start booking this year and if we really don't expect to see any sort of shipments until '24. Is that sort of the way you guys are thinking about the timing, booking start this year and maybe start to see the revenue benefit next year?

所以只是對愛爾蘭共和軍的後續行動。想知道你們是否希望今年開始預訂，我們是否真的不希望在 24 日之前看到任何類型的發貨。你們是這樣考慮時間的，今年開始預訂，明年可能會開始看到收入收益嗎？

Yes. I mean we're -- obviously, we're already working with customers and working through what this means and how they go about it and recognizing that we're obviously part of that as this bill was formed. And so we're definitely going to start to see some momentum here on the order side. And then depending on the timing, how that flows through the year and into next, we'll continue to keep you updated.

是的。我的意思是我們 - 顯然，我們已經在與客戶合作並研究這意味著什麼以及他們如何處理它並認識到我們顯然是該法案形成時的一部分。因此，我們肯定會開始在訂單方面看到一些勢頭。然後根據時間，今年和明年的流動情況，我們將繼續為您提供最新信息。

But that -- this is ultimately helping to build the pipeline that we have and the confidence that we have in being able to turn -- but not only book, but then turn sustainable solutions in. It's across all of our portfolio, right, from residential incentives right up through some of the more complex offerings that we have.

但這 - 這最終有助於建立我們擁有的管道和我們能夠轉變的信心 - 但不僅是預訂，而且是可持續的解決方案。它貫穿我們所有的投資組合，正確的，從通過我們擁有的一些更複雜的產品提供住宅激勵。

And Josh, this is where the field presence is very important. We have today a field presence, allowing us to advise our customers about how to best leverage the benefits of the IRA.

喬什，這就是現場存在非常重要的地方。今天，我們擁有現場服務，使我們能夠就如何最好地利用 IRA 的好處向我們的客戶提供建議。

Got it. And then just on maybe a little deeper trip into the weeds on the IRA. I think there's like $5 a square foot in commercial energy retrofit incentives. My understanding is some of the stuff like OpenBlue is significantly below that per square foot. Like -- I guess like it seems sort of like a layup for customers. What would hold them back, if anything? Or is it just the industry, yourselves included, can only install products so fast?

知道了。然後就可能更深入地了解 IRA 的雜草。我認為商業能源改造激勵措施大約每平方英尺 5 美元。我的理解是像 OpenBlue 這樣的一些東西明顯低於每平方英尺。就像——我想這對客戶來說有點像上籃。什麼會阻止他們，如果有的話？還是整個行業，包括你們自己，只能這麼快安裝產品？

Yes. I mean it's just purely -- there's an educational element that we're working through and understanding what it is and then what we can do and how we can go about solving the problem and being able to capitalize on the incentives. And like to your point, the value proposition that we bring with the output that we can create, again, it becomes very attractive for the customer.

是的。我的意思是，這純粹是——我們正在研究一個教育元素，了解它是什麼，然後我們可以做什麼，以及我們如何著手解決問題並能夠利用激勵措施。就像你的觀點一樣，我們帶來的價值主張以及我們可以創造的產出，再次對客戶變得非常有吸引力。

So it isn't a matter of -- that I think that they're going to ultimately proceed. It's more just the timing of going through that initial upfront process in getting it defined and then ultimately being able to execute. But we're confident, Josh, with the solution set that we've built that we're going to be well positioned to be able to capitalize on the dollars that come into the market as a result of that.

因此，這不是我認為他們最終會繼續進行的問題。更多的只是通過最初的前期流程來定義它然後最終能夠執行的時間。但是，Josh，我們有信心，憑藉我們構建的解決方案集，我們將處於有利地位，能夠利用因此進入市場的美元。

And some of it is, when you look at customers, it's also changing how they're thinking about whether it be capital or OpEx and how these business models are configured, and then how they match that to the benefits that they see. So we're working through that. We've got a team that's working directly with our customer base in sorting that out, but we're going to start to see momentum on that, both in the orders and then our ability to be able to convert.

其中一些是，當你觀察客戶時，它也在改變他們對資本或運營支出的思考方式，以及這些業務模型的配置方式，以及他們如何將其與他們看到的收益相匹配。所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。我們有一個團隊直接與我們的客戶群合作解決這個問題，但我們將開始看到這方面的勢頭，無論是在訂單方面，還是在我們能夠轉換的能力方面。

For our last question, we have Gautam Khanna from Cowen.

對於我們的最後一個問題，我們有來自 Cowen 的 Gautam Khanna。

I was wondering if you could talk about any differences you're seeing in the forward pipeline -- order pipeline between Fire & Security and the Applied HVAC market. I remember back when you had your Investor Day, you thought those markets would grow at a similar rate. And is that consistent with what you're seeing today?

我想知道您是否可以談談您在前向管道中看到的任何差異——消防與安全與應用 HVAC 市場之間的訂單管道。我記得當你舉辦投資者日時，你認為這些市場會以類似的速度增長。這與您今天看到的一致嗎？

Yes. So on the Fire & Security, we are seeing strength in the -- with the Dodge construction and the activity coming through, and we're positioned well on that on the -- more on the retrofit side. We thrive and from a service standpoint and how we upgrade and ultimately reconfigure indoor space and the like. And we're seeing a lot of that given the hybrid work and how people are coming back to work. And so that is -- those are the factors that drive Fire & Security. We were up both orders and revenue up close to double digit in both, typically a little bit lower growth rate than what we see in HVAC.

是的。因此，在消防和安全方面，我們看到了力量——隨著道奇的建設和活動的進行，我們在這方面的定位很好——更多的是在改造方面。我們從服務的角度以及我們如何升級和最終重新配置室內空間等方面蓬勃發展。考慮到混合工作以及人們如何重返工作崗位，我們看到了很多這樣的情況。這就是 - 這些是推動消防與安全的因素。我們的訂單和收入都增長了近兩位數，通常比我們在 HVAC 中看到的增長率略低。

And then HVAC is really being driven by what we've discussed here -- frequently here during today's call around the value proposition not only with the efficiency that we bring within the new equipment but the deployment of heat pumps, for instance. We are in a situation where we've improved our technology with the temperatures that we can generate. When you take a chiller and convert to a heat pump and then be able to replace a boiler, significantly reduces the carbon footprint for our customers. At the same time, you're getting 3 to 5x the efficiency out of the unit.

然後 HVAC 確實受到我們在這裡討論的內容的驅動——在今天的電話會議中，我們經常在這裡討論價值主張，不僅是我們在新設備中帶來的效率，還有熱泵的部署，例如。我們所處的情況是，我們已經用我們可以產生的溫度改進了我們的技術。當您將冷卻器轉換為熱泵，然後能夠更換鍋爐時，將為我們的客戶顯著減少碳足跡。同時，您的設備效率提高了 3 到 5 倍。

And so you get a tremendous payback. And so it's through these models, Gautam, that as we begin to unleash what we believe to be a very attractive market and it does play to our strengths, that it's going to be a different demand cycle than what historically we've seen in HVAC.

所以你會得到巨大的回報。因此，Gautam，正是通過這些模型，當我們開始釋放我們認為非常有吸引力的市場並且它確實發揮了我們的優勢時，這將是一個不同於我們在 HVAC 歷史上看到的需求週期.

One statistic, Gautam, to complement what George has indicated, our adjusted pipeline growth today is in the mid-teens, just reflecting what George has indicated.

Gautam 的一項統計數據可以補充 George 所表示的內容，我們今天調整後的管道增長處於十幾歲左右，正好反映了 George 所表示的內容。

Okay. And then could you comment on your updated expectations for commodity inflation, or deflation, I should say, this year? And then if you could just also comment on lead times that you guys are quoting in the applied commercial HVAC space.

好的。然後你能評論一下你對今年商品通脹或通縮的最新預期嗎？然後，如果你也可以評論你們在應用商業 HVAC 空間中引用的交貨時間。

Yes. So on the inflation as it relates to commodities, we're watching that closely. Certainly, some of that has moderated. But as they've moderated, other costs have continued to increase. So that's something we're watching closely. And certainly, I want to make sure that we stay disciplined with the impact that, that might have.

是的。因此，關於與商品相關的通貨膨脹，我們正在密切關注。當然，其中一些已經緩和。但隨著它們的緩和，其他成本繼續增加。所以這是我們正在密切關注的事情。當然，我想確保我們對可能產生的影響保持紀律。

I think what's important to us now is that the business proposition here is that we're creating value not necessarily tied to purely price cost as what historically we would have done. So I think that's one factor. And then the second on the -- the second was on the applied -- what was it?

我認為現在對我們來說重要的是這裡的商業主張是我們創造的價值不一定像我們過去所做的那樣與純粹的價格成本掛鉤。所以我認為這是一個因素。然後第二個——第二個是應用——它是什麼？

The lead time.

交貨時間。

So the lead times as a result of the strong demand, you've got to realize, Gautam, that as we've gone through the last year, we've had significant pickup in our backlog around Applied. And so on a go-forward basis, it's important that we get -- we've been building our capacity. We were expanding a number of our plants, whether it be water-cooled chillers or air-cooled chillers or Industrial Refrigeration, our data center solutions. We're significantly increasing our capacity as we've been ramping up, and we've been doing this in line with the supply chain recovery that we've been executing on.

因此，由於需求強勁而導致的交貨時間，高塔姆，你必須意識到，正如我們去年經歷的那樣，我們在 Applied 周圍的積壓訂單中有了顯著的回升。因此，在前進的基礎上，重要的是我們得到 - 我們一直在建設我們的能力。我們正在擴建我們的許多工廠，無論是水冷式冷水機組還是風冷式冷水機組，還是我們的數據中心解決方案工業製冷。隨著我們一直在增加，我們正在顯著提高我們的能力，並且我們一直在根據我們一直在執行的供應鏈恢復來這樣做。

And so once -- with this backlog, we're trying to address the backlog so that we can open up capacity with shorter lead times to now be able to capitalize on what we see to be very strong demand going forward. So the lead times are being reduced. They're not to where we like them to be. But with the additional capacity we're putting online as we go through the year, we're going to be positioned very competitively from a lead time to be able to respond ultimately and support the customer demand that we see.

所以有一次——有了這個積壓，我們正試圖解決積壓問題，這樣我們就可以在更短的交貨時間內開闢產能，現在能夠利用我們認為未來非常強勁的需求。因此，交貨時間正在縮短。他們不去我們喜歡的地方。但是隨著我們在這一年中增加的在線能力，我們將在交貨時間上處於非常有競爭力的位置，以便能夠最終做出響應並支持我們看到的客戶需求。

Can you give us what the lead times are today? What's it like, 9 to 12 months? What are you thinking?

你能告訴我們今天的交貨時間嗎？ 9 到 12 個月是什麼感覺？你在想什麼？

They vary. So it's hard to state any one, depending on the -- right, from the residential to the large commercial, but we've been reducing them significantly here over the last 6 months. We are now -- with the additional capacity coming on board, I would tell you, our volumes in our Applied business on a run rate basis with our chillers and then our water-cooled chillers and our air-cooled chillers, we're looking at volumes on a run rate basis that are going to be 2 or 3x. And so as we're putting those -- that capacity in place, it does give us an opportunity on a forward-looking basis to reduce the lead times that we're quoting to our customers.

他們各不相同。因此，很難說出任何一個，取決於 - 正確的，從住宅到大型商業，但我們在過去 6 個月裡一直在大幅減少它們。我們現在 - 隨著額外產能的增加，我會告訴你，我們的應用業務的數量是基於我們的冷水機運行率，然後是我們的水冷式冷水機和我們的風冷式冷水機，我們正在尋找以運行率為基礎的數量將是 2 或 3 倍。因此，當我們將這些能力投入到位時，它確實讓我們有機會在前瞻性的基礎上減少我們向客戶報價的交貨時間。

That was our final question for today. I will now turn the call back over to the speakers for final comments.

這是我們今天的最後一個問題。我現在將把電話轉回給發言人以徵求最終意見。

Yes. And I'd like to thank everyone once again for joining us on today's call. As we have discussed, we have a very strong start to the fiscal year. I'm very confident in our ability to execute and continue the momentum in the coming quarters as we step -- really step up into the next phase of our digital transformation journey. And with that, I look forward to seeing many of you over the conferences over the next couple of -- next month or so. And with that, operator, that concludes our call.

是的。我想再次感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。正如我們所討論的那樣，我們本財年的開局非常強勁。我對我們在未來幾個季度執行和繼續保持勢頭的能力非常有信心——真正步入我們數字化轉型之旅的下一階段。因此，我期待在接下來的幾個月左右的會議上見到你們中的許多人。接線員，就此結束我們的通話。

That concludes the call. Thank you for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

通話到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。