江森自控 (JCI) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Johnson Controls Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎來到江森自控 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

This conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. I will turn the call over to Michael Gates, Senior Director, Investor Relations.

正在錄製本次會議。如果您有任何異議，請在此時斷開連接。我將把電話轉給投資者關係高級總監邁克爾·蓋茨。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls third quarter fiscal 2022 results. The press release and all related tables issued earlier this morning as well as the conference call slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at johnsoncontrols.com.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論江森自控 2022 財年第三季度業績。今天上午早些時候發布的新聞稿和所有相關表格以及電話會議幻燈片演示可以在我們網站 johnsoncontrols.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, George Oliver; and our Chief Financial Officer, Olivier Leonetti.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是江森自控董事長兼首席執行官 George Oliver；和我們的首席財務官 Olivier Leonetti。

As a reminder, before we begin, during the course of today's call, we'll be providing certain forward-looking information. We ask that you review today's press release and read through the forward-looking cautionary informational statements that we've included there. In addition, we will use certain non-GAAP measures in our discussions, and we ask that you read through the sections of our press release that address the use of these items. In discussing our results during the call, references are made to adjusted earnings per share, EBITDA and EBIT, excluding restructuring as well as other special items.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，在今天的電話會議期間，我們將提供某些前瞻性信息。我們要求您查看今天的新聞稿並通讀我們在其中包含的前瞻性警示信息聲明。此外，我們將在討論中使用某些非公認會計原則措施，我們要求您通讀我們新聞稿中涉及這些項目使用的部分。在電話會議期間討論我們的結果時，參考了調整後的每股收益、EBITDA 和 EBIT，不包括重組以及其他特殊項目。

These metrics, together with organic sales and free cash flow, are non-GAAP measures and are reconciled in the schedules attached to our press release and in the appendix to the presentation posted on our website. Additionally, all comparisons to the prior year are on a continuing ops basis.

這些指標，連同有機銷售額和自由現金流，都是非公認會計原則的衡量標準，並在我們新聞稿所附的時間表和我們網站上發布的演示文稿的附錄中進行了核對。此外，與上一年的所有比較都是在持續運營的基礎上進行的。

With that, I will turn the call over to George.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給喬治。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today. Let's begin with Slide 3. As we closed out the third quarter, we continued our pace of delivering solid topline growth, supported by a resilient backlog and strong order pipeline.

謝謝，邁克，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始。在第三季度結束時，我們繼續實現穩健的收入增長，這得益於有彈性的積壓和強大的訂單管道。

Reported sales for the quarter increased 4% to $6.6 billion compared to the prior year and grew 8% organically, in line with our expectations for the quarter. The overall demand backdrop remains robust with total field orders up 11% organically year-over-year and 29% on a 2-year stack as our record backlog continues to grow, increasing 13% organically year-over-year. The third quarter was an inflection point, and our teams have done an excellent job of executing both from a sales perspective and operationally, despite the challenging macroenvironment we have faced throughout the fiscal year.

本季度報告的銷售額與去年同期相比增長 4% 至 66 億美元，有機增長 8%，符合我們對該季度的預期。整體需求背景依然強勁，總現場訂單同比增長 11%，兩年內增長 29%，因為我們創紀錄的積壓訂單繼續增長，有機同比增長 13%。第三季度是一個轉折點，儘管我們在整個財政年度都面臨著充滿挑戰的宏觀環境，但我們的團隊在銷售和運營方面都做得非常出色。

While supply chain disruptions have reduced the speed at which we can convert our substantial backlog, primarily in our longer cycle North America Solutions business, our enhanced focus on supply chain management is beginning to produce results. Our teams have done a great job working with suppliers to mitigate the impact of supply chain headwinds by securing critical materials and managing sites to improve production and facility utilization. I remain confident in the fundamentals we are building for fiscal '23 and beyond.

雖然供應鏈中斷降低了我們轉換大量積壓訂單的速度，主要是在我們較長周期的北美解決方案業務中，但我們對供應鏈管理的加強關注開始產生成果。我們的團隊在與供應商合作方面做得非常出色，通過保護關鍵材料和管理場地以提高生產和設施利用率來減輕供應鏈逆風的影響。我對我們為 23 財年及以後建立的基本面仍然充滿信心。

Given our prudent approach to managing operations and advancements across key growth vectors, I believe we are positioned to withstand these fluctuating headwinds and simultaneously deliver on our long-term targets. Our focus on strong business fundamentals and meeting customer demand for smart, healthy and connected buildings across the most mission-critical vertical markets remain our top priorities.

鑑於我們在關鍵增長向量中管理運營和進步的謹慎方法，我相信我們有能力承受這些波動的逆風，同時實現我們的長期目標。我們專注於強大的業務基礎，滿足客戶在任務關鍵型垂直市場中對智能、健康和互聯建築的需求，這仍然是我們的首要任務。

We've also taken great strides to deliver on our strategic initiatives over the quarter and remain on track to achieve our goal of reaching $230 million in productivity savings, realizing $170 million in cost savings year-to-date. We are also utilizing additional levers through functionalization, simplification in our ERP rollout to further drive our productivity efforts.

我們在本季度實施戰略舉措方面也取得了長足的進步，並繼續朝著實現 2.3 億美元生產力節約的目標邁進，今年迄今已實現 1.7 億美元的成本節約。我們還通過功能化和簡化 ERP 部署來利用額外的槓桿，以進一步推動我們的生產力努力。

In addition to the margin benefits from our cost optimization efforts, we are seeing improvements in price/cost, which inflected positive for the first time this year. We expect additional cost absorption to be realized in our field project backlog, which consists of higher book margin to be converted in the quarters to come. As we accelerate our growth strategy, we are confident in our ability to achieve our strategic vision of becoming the smart building solutions leader.

除了我們的成本優化工作帶來的利潤收益外，我們還看到價格/成本有所改善，這是今年首次出現正面影響。我們預計在我們的現場項目積壓中將實現額外的成本吸收，其中包括將在未來幾個季度轉換的更高賬面利潤率。隨著我們加快發展戰略，我們對實現成為智能建築解決方案領導者的戰略願景充滿信心。

Through our digital transformation efforts, we reached significant milestones during the quarter and year-to-date, further advancing our OpenBlue platform, executing on our commitment of investing in best-in-class technologies, in fostering technology partnerships.

通過我們的數字化轉型努力，我們在本季度和年初至今達到了重要的里程碑，進一步推進了我們的 OpenBlue 平台，履行了我們對投資一流技術和促進技術合作夥伴關係的承諾。

Our efforts further strengthen our ability to capitalize on the vast and emerging secular trends across our installed base as we look to lead the way in fostering clean energy usage and healthy indoor air environments for our customers and transform our service value proposition. M&A remains another key strategic priority to further our growth objectives with several actionable opportunities in the pipeline that will allow us to support technological advancements and synergies across our portfolio.

我們的努力進一步增強了我們利用我們已安裝基礎的巨大和新興長期趨勢的能力，因為我們希望在為我們的客戶促進清潔能源使用和健康的室內空氣環境並轉變我們的服務價值主張方面處於領先地位。併購仍然是推進我們增長目標的另一個關鍵戰略優先事項，其中有幾個可行的機會正在籌備中，這將使我們能夠支持我們投資組合的技術進步和協同效應。

From a capital allocation standpoint, we have deployed over $2 billion in capital year-to-date, including over $1.4 billion in share repurchases and nearly $700 million in cash dividends. Our execution this quarter defines our meaningful approach to reaching our strategic objectives of commercial excellence through enhanced digital capabilities and supply chain management, all while continuously improving the diversity of our organization.

從資本配置的角度來看，我們今年迄今已部署了超過 20 億美元的資本，其中包括超過 14 億美元的股票回購和近 7 億美元的現金股息。我們本季度的執行定義了我們通過增強數字能力和供應鏈管理來實現我們的商業卓越戰略目標的有意義的方法，同時不斷提高我們組織的多樣性。

We are committed to strengthening our leadership across our organization with recent appointments of Rodney Clark as VP and Chief Commercial Officer; Anu Rathninde as VP and President of Asia Pacific; and Susan Hubert, who assumed the role of Chief Supply Chain Officer. We pride ourselves on fostering a high-performance culture and having the teams in place to drive continued innovation to address today's challenges while leading the way for the future of our industry.

我們最近任命 Rodney Clark 為副總裁兼首席商務官，致力於加強我們在整個組織中的領導地位； Anu Rathninde 擔任亞太區副總裁兼總裁； Susan Hubert 擔任首席供應鏈官。我們為培養高績效文化和擁有適當的團隊以推動持續創新以應對當今的挑戰而為我們行業的未來引領道路而感到自豪。

While there is still a long way to go until supply chain disruptions normalize, we have seen encouraging signs of operational improvement, helping to stabilize supply chain-related challenges as we realize the benefits of our management and contingency programs implemented throughout the year.

雖然供應鏈中斷正常化還有很長的路要走，但我們看到了令人鼓舞的運營改善跡象，隨著我們意識到全年實施的管理和應急計劃的好處，有助於穩定與供應鏈相關的挑戰。

Now turning to Slide 4. We continue to lead the industry in connectivity with OpenBlue and have built upon significant milestones to solve the dynamic needs of our customers. Through our fully integrated digital platform, providing the latest cybersecurity, AI enablement and digital twin capabilities, OpenBlue remains a step ahead of the competition. Last quarter, we launched the OpenBlue Gateway, which was a critical step in accelerating the connectivity of our equipment and a key enabler of our ability to deliver enhanced digital service offerings.

現在轉到幻燈片 4。我們繼續在與 OpenBlue 的連接方面引領行業，並建立了重要的里程碑來解決客戶的動態需求。通過我們完全集成的數字平台，提供最新的網絡安全、人工智能支持和數字孿生功能，OpenBlue 在競爭中保持領先一步。上個季度，我們推出了 OpenBlue Gateway，這是加速我們設備連接的關鍵一步，也是我們提供增強型數字服務產品能力的關鍵推動力。

To date, we have over 8,400 connected chillers through OpenBlue, representing an 86% increase year-over-year. The launch of our connected control platform, which represents the first integration of OpenBlue with our legacy medicines platform, is also off to a great start. As mentioned last quarter, we view this as a significantly disruptive solution that will allow us to intelligently automate buildings to get to the next level of optimization for our customers into our air quality, energy efficiency and carbon reduction needs as well as transform our service value proposition. In addition, we look forward to providing customers with added flexibility of data integration with OpenBlue multi-cloud capabilities.

迄今為止，我們通過 OpenBlue 連接了超過 8,400 台冷水機組，同比增長 86%。我們的互聯控制平台的推出，代表了 OpenBlue 與我們傳統藥物平台的首次集成，也是一個良好的開端。正如上個季度所提到的，我們認為這是一個極具顛覆性的解決方案，它將使我們能夠智能地自動化建築物，從而為我們的客戶對我們的空氣質量、能源效率和碳減排需求進行下一個優化，並轉變我們的服務價值主張。此外，我們期待通過 OpenBlue 多雲功能為客戶提供更多的數據集成靈活性。

This technology gives customers the ability to seamlessly integrate hosted data from various outlets while ensuring a high availability of data and insights for our customers. Lastly, on the M&A front, we announced another exciting technology acquisition with Tempered Networks, similar to the FogHorn acquisition announced in Q1. This transaction leverages best-in-class technology to further enhance the OpenBlue technology stack. Tempered industry-leading edge security focused and proprietary air wall technology will be seamlessly embedded into OpenBlue Bridge to create a zero trust security pipeline that enhances the trust and connectivity of our growing network.

該技術使客戶能夠無縫集成來自不同渠道的託管數據，同時確保為我們的客戶提供高可用性的數據和洞察力。最後，在併購方面，我們宣布了與 Tempered Networks 的另一項激動人心的技術收購，類似於第一季度宣布的 FogHorn 收購。該交易利用一流的技術進一步增強 OpenBlue 技術堆棧。以行業領先的邊緣安全為重點的專有空氣牆技術將無縫嵌入到 OpenBlue Bridge 中，以創建零信任安全管道，從而增強我們不斷增長的網絡的信任和連接性。

This purpose-built system greatly simplifies the implementation of zero trust cybersecure networks, including connected equipment, which are already resonating strongly with our customers. This is critical as we think about our strategy for AI-enabled edge devices and the importance of data security for our customers, and we are excited to welcome the Tempered team to Johnson Controls.

這個專門構建的系統極大地簡化了零信任網絡安全網絡的實施，包括連接設備，這些網絡已經在我們的客戶中產生了強烈的共鳴。在我們思考支持 AI 的邊緣設備的戰略以及數據安全對客戶的重要性時，這一點至關重要，我們很高興歡迎 Tempered 團隊加入江森自控。

Next, moving to Slide 5. Our differentiated best-in-class digital services, while still in the early stages, are maturing and delivering results as we start to capitalize on the flexibility and solutions offered to our direct channel customers. Core services benefited during the quarter with orders and revenues up over 7% and 8% year-over-year and 20% and 19%, respectively, on a 2-year stack. Our overall service attach rate increased another 70 basis points in the quarter, bringing us closer to our target on a run rate basis.

接下來，轉到幻燈片 5。隨著我們開始利用為直接渠道客戶提供的靈活性和解決方案，我們差異化的一流數字服務雖然仍處於早期階段，但正在成熟並交付成果。核心服務在本季度受益，訂單和收入同比增長超過 7% 和 8%，在 2 年的堆棧中分別增長 20% 和 19%。我們的整體服務附加率在本季度又增加了 70 個基點，使我們在運行率的基礎上更接近我們的目標。

Moving along to Slide 6. Turning to our growth vectors. With climate change continuing to pose an imminent risk, decarbonization is an increasingly significant goal nationally and globally, both in the public and private sectors. At Johnson Controls, we drive our business forward by recognizing, there is a role for us to play in global decarbonization and have taken great strides in growing our best-in-class partnership ecosystem to address our customers' commitment towards net zero. Through our collaboration with Forrester, we have commissioned our proprietary sustainability maturity assessment tool, helping customers deliver on their net zero goal.

轉到幻燈片 6。轉向我們的增長向量。隨著氣候變化繼續構成迫在眉睫的風險，脫碳是公共和私營部門在國家和全球範圍內日益重要的目標。在江森自控，我們認識到我們可以在全球脫碳中發揮作用，並在發展我們一流的合作夥伴生態系統以履行客戶對淨零排放的承諾方面取得了長足的進步，從而推動我們的業務向前發展。通過與 Forrester 的合作，我們委託了我們專有的可持續發展成熟度評估工具，幫助客戶實現其淨零目標。

We have strengthened our partnership with Accenture, which together will deliver 2 new Johnson Controls- OpenBlue innovation centers, helping further the development of AI-enabled building control system, products and services to accelerate our development and deployment of a full portfolio of digital solutions. Year-to-date, our sustainability infrastructure business has booked over $595 million in orders, and we remain on track to deliver over $1 billion of orders from fiscal year '22, representing a 15% increase year-over-year.

我們加強了與埃森哲的合作夥伴關係，它們將共同提供兩個新的江森自控-OpenBlue 創新中心，幫助進一步開發支持人工智能的樓宇控制系統、產品和服務，以加快我們開發和部署完整的數字解決方案組合。年初至今，我們的可持續發展基礎設施業務已預訂超過 5.95 億美元的訂單，我們仍有望從 22 財年交付超過 10 億美元的訂單，同比增長 15%。

In addition, our $7.2 billion pipeline remains healthy with over 200 active opportunities consisting of large multinational customers spanning across numerous end markets from hospitality, health care, beverage and industrial.

此外，我們 72 億美元的管道保持健康，擁有 200 多個活躍的機會，其中包括跨越酒店、醫療保健、飲料和工業等眾多終端市場的大型跨國客戶。

Turning to Slide 7, shifting to a Healthy Buildings. The market opportunity remains strong with global government support for indoor air quality investments on the rise. We remain uniquely positioned to capture this trend and help customers manage challenges through our OpenBlue indoor air quality as a service. This turnkey offering has continued to gain traction, providing customers with a long-term proactive approach to meet the ever-changing health and safety compliance standards while leveraging our advanced OpenBlue technology stack to optimize costs and increase productivity.

轉向幻燈片 7，轉向健康建築。隨著全球政府對室內空氣質量投資的支持不斷增加，市場機會依然強勁。我們在捕捉這一趨勢方面仍然處於獨特的地位，並通過我們的 OpenBlue 室內空氣質量即服務幫助客戶應對挑戰。這種統包式產品繼續受到關注，為客戶提供長期積極的方法來滿足不斷變化的健康和安全合規標準，同時利用我們先進的 OpenBlue 技術堆棧來優化成本和提高生產力。

Notably, during the quarter, we delivered strong results. Year-to-date, Healthy Buildings orders have increased 27% year-over-year. Our Healthy Buildings pipeline represents over $1.3 billion and has grown 33% year-over-year.

值得注意的是，在本季度，我們取得了強勁的業績。年初至今，健康建築訂單同比增長 27%。我們的健康建築管道價值超過 13 億美元，同比增長 33%。

And finally, on Slide 8, we continue to demonstrate our leadership and sustainability, data privacy and diversity, and we are honored to be recognized for our efforts. Most notably, we would like to recognize our own Human Resources Officer, Marlon Sullivan, who was recently named as one of 2022's most influential black executives in the corporate world.

最後，在幻燈片 8 上，我們將繼續展示我們的領導力和可持續性、數據隱私和多樣性，我們很榮幸能夠因我們的努力而獲得認可。最值得注意的是，我們要表彰我們自己的人力資源官 Marlon Sullivan，他最近被評為 2022 年企業界最具影響力的黑人高管之一。

To close out my prepared remarks, I am confident about what the future holds and how our team is positioned to lead the way towards a more sustainable future for our customers and communities. We have made great progress across our key growth factors and have managed to navigate a difficult macro environment while executing our strategic initiatives. Despite the temporary headwinds, our path forward remains bright, and we are in a perfect position to execute on our resilient backlog demand through 2023 and beyond.

在結束我準備好的講話時，我對未來的發展以及我們的團隊如何定位為我們的客戶和社區引領通往更可持續未來的道路充滿信心。我們在關鍵增長因素方面取得了長足進步，並在執行戰略舉措的同時成功度過了艱難的宏觀環境。儘管存在暫時的逆風，但我們的前進道路仍然光明，我們處於一個完美的位置，可以在 2023 年及以後執行我們有彈性的積壓需求。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Olivier to walk you through the financial details in the quarter and update you on our outlook. Olivier?

有了這個，我將把電話轉給 Olivier，讓你了解本季度的財務細節，並向你介紹我們的展望。奧利維爾？

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the summary on Slide 9. Sales in the quarter were up 8% organically at the midpoint of our original guidance for high single-digit growth with price contributing nearly 8 points, in line with what we originally anticipated. We saw strong performance across our shorter-cycle global product portfolio up 9%. Our longer-cycle field businesses also performed well, up 7%, with solid growth in both service and in store.

謝謝，喬治，大家早上好。讓我從幻燈片 9 的摘要開始。在我們最初的高個位數增長指導的中點，本季度的銷售額有機增長了 8%，價格貢獻了近 8 個百分點，與我們最初的預期一致。我們的短期全球產品組合表現強勁，增長了 9%。我們較長周期的現場業務也表現良好，增長 7%，服務和門店均實現穩健增長。

Segment EBITA declined 3% with margins down 110 basis points to 15.1%. Favorable price cost and the benefit of our ongoing SG&A and COGS programs were offset by 104 basis points margin headwind from lower volumes and supply chain-related challenges. EPS of $0.85 increased 3% year-over-year, benefiting from positive price/cost as well as lower share count and absorbed a $0.03 FX headwind versus our guide assumptions. Free cash flow was down in the quarter as we continue to manage supply chain disruptions in order to meet customer demands.

部門 EBITA 下降 3%，利潤率下降 110 個基點至 15.1%。有利的價格成本以及我們正在進行的 SG&A 和 COGS 計劃的好處被銷量減少和供應鏈相關挑戰帶來的 104 個基點的利潤率逆風所抵消。每股收益為 0.85 美元，同比增長 3%，受益於正價格/成本以及較低的股票數量，並吸收了與我們的指導假設相比 0.03 美元的外匯逆風。由於我們繼續管理供應鏈中斷以滿足客戶需求，因此本季度的自由現金流有所下降。

Turning to our EPS bridge on Slide 10. Overall, operations contributed $0.02 versus the prior year, including a $0.07 benefit from our COGS and SG&A productivity programs, which helped to offset lower volumes and supply chain challenges. Underlying segment earnings were net $0.05 headwind year-over-year.

在幻燈片 10 上轉向我們的 EPS 橋樑。總體而言，與去年相比，運營貢獻了 0.02 美元，其中包括從我們的 COGS 和 SG&A 生產力計劃中獲得的 0.07 美元收益，這有助於抵消銷量下降和供應鏈挑戰。基礎部門收益同比淨逆風 0.05 美元。

Please turn to Slide 11. Orders for our field businesses increased 11% in aggregate with continued momentum on a 2-year stack basis. Service orders were led by high teens growth in our shorter-term transactional business. Install orders increased low double digits in the quarter, primarily driven by demand for applied HVAC and control systems.

請轉到幻燈片 11。我們現場業務的訂單總體增長了 11%，並且在 2 年堆棧的基礎上繼續保持增長勢頭。服務訂單是由我們短期交易業務的青少年高增長帶動的。本季度安裝訂單增加了兩位數的低位，主要受應用 HVAC 和控制系統需求的推動。

Field backlog grew 13% to $11.1 billion, a $1.3 billion increase versus the prior year and up $174 million sequentially. In our project-based field business, we continue to below backlog with higher-margin work. Our supply chain disruptions subside, and our mix becomes more favorable, we expect margin accretion in the quarter to come. Lastly, our Global Products backlog grew by more than 50% to $2.2 billion and continues to show strength.

現場積壓增長 13% 至 111 億美元，比上年增加 13 億美元，環比增加 1.74 億美元。在我們基於項目的現場業務中，我們繼續以更高利潤的工作減少積壓工作。我們的供應鏈中斷消退，我們的組合變得更加有利，我們預計本季度的利潤增長。最後，我們的全球產品積壓量增長了 50% 以上，達到 22 億美元，並且繼續表現出強勁的勢頭。

Let's discuss our segment results in more detail on Slide 12 and 13. Sales in North America were up 10% organically with broad-based growth across the portfolio, led primarily by strength in our applied business, up low double digits. Fire & Security grew high single digits. Our Sustainability Infrastructure business grew low double digits with strong growth of about 25% on a 2-year stack basis. Orders were up 15% with high teens growth in applied, driven by continued equipment demand in the data center and health care verticals.

讓我們在幻燈片 12 和 13 上更詳細地討論我們的細分市場結果。北美的銷售額有機增長了 10%，整個投資組合的基礎廣泛增長，主要是由於我們應用業務的實力，增長了兩位數。消防和安全部門增長了個位數。我們的可持續發展基礎設施業務以低兩位數的速度增長，在 2 年堆棧基礎上實現了約 25% 的強勁增長。在數據中心和醫療保健垂直領域持續的設備需求推動下，訂單增長了 15%，應用的青少年增長率很高。

Fire & Security orders were up mid-single digits and backlog ended the quarter at $7.2 billion, up 17% year-over-year. Segment margin decreased 400 basis points to 10.7%, a direct result of headwinds from projects booked prior to acceleration of cost 12 to 18 months ago as well as the pace and mix of backlog conversion and lower absorption due to supply chain constraints. Overall, supply chain was a $45 million headwind in the quarter, and we expect this to improve as we head into Q4. In EMEALA, we saw continued strength in the Fire & Security business, which grew at a high single-digit rate in Q3. Industrial Refrigeration declined mid-single digits driven by supply chain delays and customer site readiness, but was offset by high single-digit growth in our HVAC business, specifically in the U.K. region.

消防和安全訂單增長了中個位數，截至本季度的積壓訂單為 72 億美元，同比增長 17%。分部利潤率下降 400 個基點至 10.7%，這是由於 12 至 18 個月前成本加速之前預定項目的不利因素，以及積壓轉換的速度和組合以及由於供應鏈限製而導致的較低吸收率的直接結果。總體而言，本季度供應鏈面臨 4500 萬美元的逆風，我們預計隨著我們進入第四季度，這種情況會有所改善。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們看到消防和安全業務持續強勁，在第三季度以高個位數的速度增長。由於供應鏈延遲和客戶現場準備情況，工業製冷下降了中個位數，但被我們的暖通空調業務（特別是在英國地區）的高個位數增長所抵消。

Orders were up 8%, led by mid-teens growth in our Fire & Security platform. Backlog was up 10% to $2.2 billion. Underlying margin performance risen by positive price cost and the benefit of cost savings, offset by lower volumes. Sales in Asia Pacific declined 1%. There is a direct result of multiple lockdowns in China. Overall, China declined 7%, and the rest of Asia increased 6% with growth primarily in Industrial Refrigeration. Orders increased 2% with continued strength in applied, driven primarily by continued momentum within the industrial vertical in China with a continued pipeline of infrastructure investment across key verticals like data centers, semiconductor, petrochemical and health care. Backlog of $1.7 billion was up 1% year-over-year. The 90 basis point increase in margin was primarily the result of positive price/cost and the benefit of cost savings, which more than offset lower volumes from the COVID lockdowns.

訂單增長了 8%，這主要得益於我們的消防和安全平台的青少年增長。積壓訂單增加 10% 至 22 億美元。正的價格成本和成本節約的好處提高了潛在的利潤率表現，但被銷量下降所抵消。亞太地區的銷售額下降了 1%。中國多次封鎖的直接結果。總體而言，中國下降了 7%，亞洲其他地區增長了 6%，增長主要是工業製冷。訂單增長 2%，應用持續強勁，這主要得益於中國工業垂直領域的持續發展勢頭，數據中心、半導體、石化和醫療保健等關鍵垂直領域的基礎設施投資持續不斷。積壓 17 億美元，同比增長 1%。利潤率增加了 90 個基點，主要是由於價格/成本為正以及節省成本的好處，這足以抵消 COVID 鎖定導致的交易量下降。

Sales in our shorter-cycle global products increased 9% in Q3, benefiting from strong price realization of 11%. Volumes declined by 2% due to supply chain headwinds and COVID lockdowns in China. Commercial HVAC product sales were up high single digits in aggregate with strength in light commercial driven by more than 15% growth in North America and low double-digit growth in VRF.

得益於 11% 的強勁價格實現，我們的較短週期全球產品的銷售額在第三季度增長了 9%。由於中國的供應鏈逆風和 COVID 封鎖，銷量下降了 2%。商用暖通空調產品銷售額總體增長了高個位數，其中輕型商用產品的強勁勢頭受到北美超過 15% 的增長和 VRF 低兩位數增長的推動。

Applied HVAC sales were up 8%, driven by strong growth in Europe and APAC. Global Residential HVAC sales were up 9% in aggregate. North America resi HVAC was up 22%, benefiting from both higher growth in our equipment and part business and strong price realization. Outside of North America, our resi HVAC business grew mid-single digits, led by strong double-digit growth in Europe, driven by strong demand for our Hitachi residential heat pumps. APAC Resi HVAC sales grew low single digits led by strong growth in India.

受歐洲和亞太地區強勁增長的推動，應用暖通空調的銷售額增長了 8%。全球住宅暖通空調銷售額總計增長了 9%。北美 Resi HVAC 增長了 22%，這得益於我們的設備和零件業務的更高增長以及強勁的價格實現。在北美以外，我們的 Resi HVAC 業務增長了中個位數，其中歐洲強勁的兩位數增長帶動了我們對日立住宅熱泵的強勁需求。在印度強勁增長的帶動下，亞太地區 Resi HVAC 銷售額增長低個位數。

Fire & Security products grew high single digits in aggregate, led by our specialty products in Europe and North America, up 27% and 18%, respectively. Although not recorded in our official filled order backlog, Global Products orders were up mid single digits organically and our third-party backlog exceeded $2 billion. EBITDA margins expanded 110 basis points to 22.2% as the benefit of productivity actions and favorable mix more than offset headwinds from supply chain disruptions.

在我們在歐洲和北美的特色產品的帶動下，消防和安防產品總體增長了高個位數，分別增長了 27% 和 18%。雖然沒有記錄在我們的官方填寫訂單積壓中，但全球產品訂單有機增長了中個位數，我們的第三方積壓超過 20 億美元。 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 110 個基點至 22.2%，因為生產力行動和有利的組合抵消了供應鏈中斷帶來的不利影響。

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 14. We ended Q3 with $1.5 billion in available cash and net debt at 2.2x, still at the low end of our target range of 2 to 2.5x. As I previously mentioned, free cash flow was impacted by supply chain disruptions. To meet our customer demand, we are carrying higher inventory levels and as supply chain normalizes, we expect gradual recovery of trade working capital. We repurchased another 7 million shares for approximately $400 million in the third quarter, bringing us to $1.4 billion for the year.

轉向幻燈片 14 上的資產負債表和現金流。我們在第三季度結束時擁有 15 億美元的可用現金和 2.2 倍的淨債務，仍處於我們 2 至 2.5 倍目標範圍的低端。正如我之前提到的，自由現金流受到供應鏈中斷的影響。為滿足客戶需求，我們的庫存水平較高，隨著供應鏈正常化，我們預計貿易營運資金將逐步恢復。我們在第三季度以約 4 億美元的價格回購了另外 700 萬股股票，使我們全年達到 14 億美元。

Now let's discuss our refined guidance on Slide 15. Underlying demand trends across most of our businesses continue to grow, and I'm encouraged by the pace of all the growth we have seen year-to-date. We are on pace to meet our commitments despite continued pressure from FX. We are refining our full year adjusted EPS range to $2.98 to $3.02, absorbing $0.06 of FX headwinds. EPS growth of 12% to 14% is expected year-over-year.

現在讓我們討論一下我們對幻燈片 15 的改進指導。我們大多數業務的基本需求趨勢繼續增長，我對今年迄今為止所看到的所有增長速度感到鼓舞。儘管來自外彙的持續壓力，我們仍在努力履行我們的承諾。我們正在將全年調整後的每股收益範圍細化至 2.98 美元至 3.02 美元，吸收 0.06 美元的外匯逆風。預計每股收益將同比增長 12% 至 14%。

On the top line, we expect to grow 8% to 9% organically. Price is expected to contribute 7 points in line with our prior expectations, fully offsetting additional inflation. For the full year, we still expect to be slightly positive on price/cost. Segment margin is now expected to come minus 10 to minus 20 basis points, reflecting pressure related to additional price on the top line with minimum margin contribution and the mix impact associated with the supply chain disruptions in North America.

最重要的是，我們預計有機增長 8% 至 9%。價格預計將貢獻 7 個點，符合我們之前的預期，完全抵消了額外的通脹。對於全年，我們仍預計價格/成本將略微樂觀。現在預計分部利潤率將下降 10 至負 20 個基點，這反映了與利潤貢獻最小的頂線額外價格相關的壓力以及與北美供應鏈中斷相關的混合影響。

These factors account for nearly 150 basis points headwind versus the prior year. Full year free cash flow conversion is now expected to be 80% as the inventory bid in the first half combined with slower backlog conversion create nearly a $200 million headwind to our prior year guidance. Due to the actions taken to mitigate the supply chain impacts, we are not anticipating the typical seasonal inventory drawdown.

與去年相比，這些因素造成了近 150 個基點的逆風。現在預計全年自由現金流轉換率為 80%，因為上半年的庫存投標加上較慢的積壓轉換為我們上一年的指導帶來了近 2 億美元的逆風。由於為減輕供應鏈影響而採取的行動，我們預計不會出現典型的季節性庫存下降。

Turning to Q4. EPS is expected to be in the range of $0.96 to $1, which assumes organic revenue growth of 9% to 10% and a segment margin improvement of 40 to 60 basis points, offsetting $0.03 FX headwind. While near-term supply chain disruptions still empower backlog conversion rates, we continue to meet our commitments in a challenging environment.

轉向第四季度。每股收益預計在 0.96 美元至 1 美元之間，假設有機收入增長 9% 至 10%，部門利潤率提高 40 至 60 個基點，抵消 0.03 美元的外匯逆風。雖然近期供應鏈中斷仍會提高積壓轉換率，但我們將繼續在充滿挑戰的環境中履行我們的承諾。

We have seen positive improvements in our run rate, cost optimization efforts and price/cost headwinds. Looking forward, we are confident in our ability to convert our backlog in 2023 and realize sequential margin recovery as we move towards long-term targets.

我們已經看到我們的運行率、成本優化工作和價格/成本逆風的積極改善。展望未來，我們有信心在 2023 年轉換積壓訂單並在我們朝著長期目標邁進時實現連續利潤率恢復。

With that, operator, please open up the lines for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question today comes from Gautam Khanna with Cowen.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 Gautam Khanna 和 Cowen。

Yes. I have 2 questions. First, if you could talk about the NCI variance that you described in the guidance? And secondly, if you could just opine on fiscal '23. Last quarter, you mentioned you might catch up that, which was lost this year, next year. Do you still feel confident of that? Because when we look at street numbers, we're looking for 20% plus earnings growth. I just wanted to get your view on that.

是的。我有 2 個問題。首先，您能否談談您在指南中描述的 NCI 差異？其次，如果您可以就 23 財年發表意見。上個季度，你提到你可能會趕上今年丟失的那個，明年。你仍然對此有信心嗎？因為當我們查看街道數字時，我們正在尋找 20% 以上的收益增長。我只是想听聽你對此的看法。

Gautam, I hope you're well. Thank you for your questions. I will take the first one and George will take the second one. In terms of NCI, if you look at particularly the segment EBITDA margin in the quarter where we had a slight miss, this is mainly due to the underperformance of our joint venture with Hitachi. And this is particularly due to the slowdown we have experienced in Japan residential, and we're catching up this miss in NCI, and we are largely planning that to be the case in Q4 as well.

高塔姆，我希望你一切都好。謝謝你的提問。我會拿第一個，喬治會拿第二個。就 NCI 而言，如果你特別看一下我們略微低於該季度的部門 EBITDA 利潤率，這主要是由於我們與日立的合資企業表現不佳。這尤其是由於我們在日本住宅市場經歷的放緩，我們正在趕上 NCI 的這一失誤，我們主要計劃在第四季度也是如此。

Gautam, as it relates to '23, I'd say, we are continuing to look at the potential headwinds and signs of a recessionary environment. What is really positive is, our order velocity doesn't indicate this, and our order book margin profile continues to strengthen and materialize as we planned for '23. If you look at our backlog, we've got a strong, resilient backlog of $13 billion. That's made up of over $11 billion in the field and over $2 billion in Global Products.

高塔姆，因為它與 23 年有關，我想說，我們將繼續關注潛在的不利因素和衰退環境的跡象。真正積極的是，我們的訂單速度並未表明這一點，而且我們的訂單保證金狀況繼續加強和實現，正如我們在 23 年計劃的那樣。如果你看看我們的積壓，我們有一個強大的、有彈性的積壓 130 億美元。其中包括超過 110 億美元的該領域和超過 20 億美元的全球產品。

And as Olivier talked about, as we've been looking projects over the last year, obviously, we've taken into account a much higher level of inflation that's booked into those projects as well as have accreted the margins that we booked. And so on a go-forward basis, as we've inflected here in third quarter, we've got a very attractive margin rate that's going to play out as we go forward. And so then the other opportunity that we have, as we talked about last quarter, is that we ramped up in the third quarter.

正如 Olivier 所說，當我們在過去一年中一直在尋找項目時，顯然，我們已經考慮到了這些項目的更高水平的通貨膨脹，並且增加了我們預定的利潤。因此，在前進的基礎上，正如我們在第三季度在這裡發生的變化一樣，我們有一個非常有吸引力的保證金率，這將隨著我們的前進而發揮作用。因此，正如我們上個季度談到的那樣，我們擁有的另一個機會是我們在第三季度有所增加。

So we have a seasonal pickup from second to third, and I'm very pleased with the progress we made in supporting that volume increase in third quarter. Now we didn't do a lot of recovery because we were in a step up because of the seasonality. Now going forward, with all the work that we've done with our suppliers, we've got line of sight to materials that will sustain this level of output in fourth quarter and continue as we look at Q1 and Q2.

因此，我們從第二季度到第三季度出現了季節性回升，我對我們在支持第三季度銷量增長方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。現在我們沒有做太多的恢復，因為我們正處於季節性的上升階段。現在展望未來，通過我們與供應商所做的所有工作，我們已經看到了能夠在第四季度保持這一產量水平的材料，並在我們查看第一季度和第二季度時繼續保持這種水平。

So it's going to be important that we continue to improve the turn times in our project-based business, which we're focused on doing as well as then the higher-margin projects ultimately playing out through the course of the year. And then in addition, I would say what we feel really good about is the progress of our services with the digital services that we're offering and how that's resonating with our customers and now being able to take our installed base and layer on a whole new level of services with OpenBlue. That's really starting to take hold. And then I think if we do get into a recessionary period, with the secular trends that we see in our space are very attractive, especially now with some of the regulations and legislation coming through requiring reduction in energy demand and requiring heat pumps and the like.

因此，重要的是我們繼續改善我們基於項目的業務的周轉時間，我們專注於做這件事，然後是利潤率更高的項目最終在一年中發揮作用。此外，我想說的是，我們感到非常高興的是我們的服務與我們提供的數字服務的進展，以及這如何與我們的客戶產生共鳴，現在能夠將我們的安裝基礎和層次放在一個整體上OpenBlue 的新服務水平。這真的開始佔據上風了。然後我認為，如果我們確實進入了衰退期，我們在我們的領域看到的長期趨勢非常有吸引力，特別是現在一些法規和立法要求減少能源需求並需要熱泵等.

And so we're fully aware of the risk. I think we've been building a pipeline, a very strong pipeline that's going to be playing through here very well in '23, and we'll have a playbook -- we'll make sure that our playbook is ready. So as we -- if we were to go into a downturn, we would be able to navigate it similar to what we did during the pandemic. So we're focused on what we can control. Certainly, we're excited about how we're executing our strategy, and certainly, we'll give you more update as we go through Q4 and layout '23.

所以我們完全意識到風險。我認為我們一直在建立一個管道，一個非常強大的管道，它將在 23 年在這裡很好地發揮作用，我們將有一個劇本——我們將確保我們的劇本已經準備好。因此，當我們——如果我們進入低迷時期，我們將能夠像我們在大流行期間所做的那樣駕馭它。所以我們專注於我們可以控制的事情。當然，我們對我們如何執行我們的戰略感到興奮，當然，我們會在第四季度和 23 年佈局時為您提供更多更新。

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的史蒂夫·圖薩。

Sorry, I hoped on late. I missed some of the intro, but have you guys addressed what -- from a cash and an earnings perspective, what maybe could be considered pushed into next year. Is there any change in the messaging that what you're missing this year is not necessarily lost that's kind of pushed forward?

對不起，我希望來晚了。我錯過了一些介紹，但是你們有沒有討論過什麼——從現金和收益的角度來看，什麼可能會被考慮推到明年。消息傳遞是否有任何變化，即您今年缺少的東西不一定會丟失，這是一種推動？

Steve, we have not covered that. From a free cash flow standpoint, what we're experiencing today is an increased level of inventory resulting from the actions we have taken to mange our supply chain disruptions and meet our customer demands. That's largely an industry trend. If you look at the KPI for cash conversion cycle, we're improving DSO or days better year-on-year, improving DPO, 7 days favorable year-on-year. And the drive we have in free cash flow at the moment is due to inventory, 7 days up in DIO year-on-year. We expect, as a result, the free cash flow conversion for the year to be about 80%, and we had a guide of about 90%. If you remember, Steve, and to your point, no change in the fundamentals.

史蒂夫，我們還沒有涉及到。從自由現金流的角度來看，我們今天所經歷的是庫存水平的增加，這是由於我們為管理供應鏈中斷和滿足客戶需求而採取的行動造成的。這在很大程度上是一種行業趨勢。如果您查看現金轉換週期的 KPI，我們正在改善 DSO 或天數同比改善，改善 DPO，7 天同比有利。而我們目前自由現金流的驅動力是由於庫存，DIO 同比增長 7 天。因此，我們預計今年的自由現金流轉換率約為 80%，而我們的指導值約為 90%。如果你還記得的話，史蒂夫，就你的觀點而言，基本面沒有變化。

This inventory will go down, mainly based upon what George just said, and we are totally convinced that we will be able to go back to the 100% free cash flow target we have committed to you and our investors.

該庫存將下降，主要基於喬治剛才所說的話，我們完全相信我們將能夠回到我們向您和我們的投資者承諾的 100% 自由現金流目標。

Yes. And I guess just following up on the earnings front on that side. You had mentioned last quarter, I think, that you'd see -- usually, you go down seasonally 4Q to 1Q, but you should see kind of an above seasonal performance, given this is supply constraint related, and you're talking about having visibility to a consistent level of supply. I don't know whether you mean that in a seasonal sense or not. But like is the run rate heading into next year still expected to be better than seasonal as these revenues and earnings and cash push forward? I guess more on a revenue and earnings perspective. You kind of answered the cash question, I guess.

是的。我想只是跟進那方面的收益方面。我認為你在上個季度提到過——通常情況下，你會在第 4 季度到第 1 季度季節性下降，但你應該會看到高於季節性的表現，因為這與供應限制有關，而且你正在談論對一致的供應水平具有可見性。我不知道你的意思是不是季節性的。但是，隨著這些收入、收益和現金的推進，明年的運行率是否仍有望好於季節性？我想更多的是從收入和收益的角度來看。你有點回答了現金問題，我猜。

Steve, I'd just address that with Gautam as it relates to 2023. What we've been working on is, we had a challenge going into the third quarter to ramp up our supply chain to be able to achieve from a full log standpoint, the typical step up. I'm very pleased with the progress we made in being able to do that, supporting the third quarter. Now as we go forward, we've been working on a forward-looking basis to maintain the component supply so that we can remain at this elevated level of output through Q4 as well as we position for the first half of next year.

史蒂夫，我只是用 Gautam 來解決這個問題，因為它與 2023 年有關。我們一直在努力的是，進入第三季度，我們面臨著一個挑戰，就是要加強我們的供應鏈，以便能夠從完整日誌的角度實現這一目標, 典型的上升。我對我們在能夠做到這一點方面取得的進展感到非常滿意，支持第三季度。現在，隨著我們的前進，我們一直在前瞻性地努力維持組件供應，以便我們能夠在第四季度以及明年上半年的定位中保持這一高水平的產出。

Typically, we go down. We typically get on in the first and second quarter because of the seasonality and then begin to pick up again. And so as we said last time and it still holds true today that we're working to sustain this elevated level of output, begin to accelerate the turn of the projects that we have in backlog and be able to have it in the first half be significant relative to a growth standpoint because of the price that's in the backlog that's going to turn and then the ability to be able to turn our projects faster, to be able to get through that backlog.

通常，我們會下降。由於季節性因素，我們通常會在第一季度和第二季度繼續上漲，然後再次開始回升。因此，正如我們上次所說，今天仍然如此，我們正在努力維持這種高水平的產出，開始加速我們積壓的項目的轉變，並能夠在上半年完成相對於增長的觀點而言意義重大，因為積壓中的價格將會轉變，然後能夠更快地轉變我們的項目，能夠通過積壓。

Right. So above seasonal in the first half? I guess, is a simple question. Do you expect it to be above seasonal in the first half?

正確的。那麼上半年高於季節性？我想，這是一個簡單的問題。您預計上半年會高於季節性嗎？

We'll be -- from historical, we will be -- from what we've seen historically, we will be above that rate in the first half.

我們將——從歷史上看，我們將——從歷史上看，我們將在上半年高於這個速度。

Steve, yes, if you look at the backlog today, that's a record high for the 2 businesses we have in our field business. Backlog is at about $11 billion, up 13% year-on-year. And in our Global Products shorter cycle, the backlog is up 50% at more than $2 billion. So as George indicated, our supply chain gets better. That should flow through in the first half of the year.

史蒂夫，是的，如果你看一下今天的積壓，這是我們在現場業務中擁有的兩項業務的歷史新高。積壓訂單約為 110 億美元，同比增長 13%。在我們更短的全球產品週期中，積壓訂單增加了 50%，超過 20 億美元。正如喬治所說，我們的供應鏈變得更好了。這應該會在今年上半年通過。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Sprague。

Just back on supply chain, but maybe just a kind of a different wrinkle. Also been a fair amount of issues just on job sites, right, construction crews, that sort of thing. So even though your confidence level is going up on kind of inbound materials, it sounds like into your factories. Just wonder if you could kind of address that other side of the equation. What's outside of your control and the confidence to kind of step up to this higher revenue rate in the fourth quarter as a function of that?

剛剛回到供應鏈上，但也許只是一種不同的皺紋。只是在工作現場，對，施工人員，諸如此類的事情，也存在相當多的問題。因此，即使您對某種入站材料的信心水平正在上升，聽起來就像進入您的工廠一樣。只是想知道您是否可以解決等式的另一面。什麼是你無法控制的，以及在第四季度提高收入率的信心是什麼？

Yes. So it's a great question, Jeff. When you look at where we've had the biggest impact is in our North America business, and it's really the convergence of 3 supply chains. So it's not only what our customers are doing, what we supply to our North America business, especially around building management controls, and then ultimately, what we buy from other OEs that contribute to the project-based business we built. And so all 3 have been challenged.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，傑夫。當您看到我們對北美業務產生最大影響的地方時，它實際上是 3 個供應鏈的融合。因此，這不僅僅是我們的客戶在做什麼，我們為北美業務提供什麼，尤其是圍繞建築管理控制，最終，我們從其他 OE 購買的東西有助於我們建立的基於項目的業務。所以這三個都受到了挑戰。

What I -- what we've seen in the third quarter, we have significantly improved our turn of our building management systems and the digital content that we provide to our North America business. We're continuing to work with the other OEs and seeing improvements in their deliveries as well as the line of sight to sustain those deliveries going forward. And then I think as labor begins to subside, the labor pressures that everyone has had to deal with during this cycle, I think, are beginning to subside. So that what I think would impact the broader customer -- the ability for the customer not to execute more on plan relative to the projects that are being completed. So I think those are the 3 elements that drive our success.

我 - 我們在第三季度所看到的，我們已經顯著改善了我們的建築管理系統和我們為北美業務提供的數字內容。我們將繼續與其他 OE 合作，並看到他們的交付以及維持這些交付的視線的改進。然後我認為隨著勞動力開始消退，我認為每個人在這個週期中必須應對的勞動力壓力開始消退。所以我認為會影響更廣泛的客戶——客戶不執行更多與正在完成的項目相關的計劃的能力。所以我認為這是推動我們成功的三個要素。

We see a net result in the quarter was about $45 million in lower absorption in North America, that will continue to improve. As we go through Q4, that will be reduced. And then on a go-forward basis, as I said, we're going to get back. We've got projects on average. We're turning -- it's really about 2 months. It's taken 2 months longer that we're going to start to see that turn reduced and getting back to where we've been historically. And so it's hard to say precisely what it's going to be, Jeff, but I have confidence working across all of those factors that things are improving, and we're going to be able to turn faster.

我們看到本季度的淨結果是北美的吸收減少約 4500 萬美元，這將繼續改善。隨著我們進入第四季度，這將減少。然後在前進的基礎上，正如我所說，我們將回來。我們平均有項目。我們正在轉向——實際上大約需要 2 個月。我們花了兩個月的時間才開始看到這種轉變減少並回到我們歷史上的水平。所以很難準確地說出它會是什麼，傑夫，但我有信心在所有這些因素上工作，事情正在改善，我們將能夠更快地轉向。

We're going to be able to get additional volumes through here, especially as we look at the first half of '23, and that should play out pretty well for us.

我們將能夠通過這裡獲得額外的交易量，尤其是當我們看到 23 年上半年的時候，這對我們來說應該會很好。

Great. And then maybe as a follow-up. A lot of that is embedded into the margin question. I guess the other key part of the margin question is this dynamic of what's working through the backlog, right, and kind of price catching up given the natural lag in some of your businesses. We obviously see our margin forecast here for the quarter. In aggregate, I just wonder if you could give us a little sense of how we think about the regions, in particular North America in Q4 from a margin rate basis.

偉大的。然後也許作為後續行動。其中很多都包含在邊距問題中。我想保證金問題的另一個關鍵部分是這種通過積壓工作的動態，對，以及鑑於您的某些業務的自然滯後，價格追趕。我們顯然在這裡看到了本季度的利潤率預測。總的來說，我只是想知道您是否可以讓我們了解一下我們對這些地區的看法，特別是從保證金率的基礎上看第四季度的北美。

So Jeff, if you look at our margin today, we believe -- we see Q3 as being an inflection point. We were positive in price/cost for the first time in the year by $20 million. We expect to be $30 million positive in price/cost in Q4 and positive in price/cost for the year. We haven't communicated that in our prepared remarks, but we're observing today that our booked margin for orders are 4 points of our bill margin in Q3, and that is going to flow to the P&L as we realize our backlog.

所以傑夫，如果你今天看看我們的利潤率，我們相信——我們認為第三季度是一個拐點。我們今年的價格/成本首次出現正數，增加了 2000 萬美元。我們預計第四季度的價格/成本為正 3000 萬美元，全年的價格/成本為正。我們沒有在準備好的評論中傳達這一點，但我們今天觀察到，我們的訂單保證金是第三季度賬單保證金的 4 個點，當我們意識到我們的積壓時，這將流向損益表。

And as we have just said, as George indicated, the turn end of the backlog is improving by about 2 months, that's starting to be the expectation. So you have higher backlog at higher margin turning faster. So we believe that margin going forward is going to be a tailwind for our business. Going back quickly to our North America, which has been most impacted by those supply chain challenges, you see, again, Q3 was an inflection point.

正如我們剛才所說，正如喬治所指出的那樣，積壓工作的結束時間正在改善大約 2 個月，這已經開始成為預期。所以你有更高的積壓，更高的利潤，轉得更快。因此，我們相信未來的利潤率將成為我們業務的順風車。快速回到受這些供應鏈挑戰影響最大的北美，你會看到，第三季度再次成為一個轉折點。

We are anticipating an increase of margin in North America Q3 over Q4 to be about close to 4.5 points and the business margin in North America clearly turning around, Jeff.

Jeff，我們預計北美第三季度的利潤率將比第四季度增長約 4.5 個百分點，北美的業務利潤率明顯好轉。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Just wanted to kind of circle back to the fourth quarter sort of margin construct. So in Q3, you had 8% organic growth and the margin down 110 bps. I mean Q4, you're saying sort of 9%, 10% organic growth, the margin up 50 bps. So just trying to ask you to unpack perhaps that swing in a little bit more detail. I think one element is, there was no volume growth in Q3 and maybe you're assuming 2 or 3 points of volume growth in Q4. Price/cost, I think, was supply chain and labor was a 60 bps headwind in Q3. I'm not sure if that is a tailwind in Q4. Maybe just help us understand some of those moving pieces that's driving the margin there to turn around.

只是想回到第四季度的保證金結構。因此，在第三季度，您實現了 8% 的有機增長，利潤率下降了 110 個基點。我的意思是第四季度，你說的是 9%、10% 的有機增長，利潤率上升了 50 個基點。所以只是想請你解開這個搖擺的更多細節。我認為一個因素是，第三季度沒有銷量增長，也許你假設第四季度銷量增長 2 或 3 個百分點。我認為價格/成本是供應鏈，而勞動力在第三季度是 60 個基點的逆風。我不確定這是否是第四季度的順風。也許只是幫助我們了解一些推動利潤回升的移動因素。

So you have a mix going on now in the margin equation. If you go back to our field business, we price jobs at the start of the inflationary period. We didn't anticipate in the job we priced, obviously, this inflation and we correctly -- we quickly adjusted this. Now you start to see this higher margin backlog in the field business to go through the P&L. That's mainly why we expect to be -- we were price/cost positive in Q3, and that will accelerate in Q4 and going forward.

因此，您現在在邊際方程中進行了混合。如果您回到我們的現場業務，我們會在通貨膨脹期開始時為工作定價。顯然，我們在定價的工作中沒有預料到這種通貨膨脹，我們正確地 - 我們迅速調整了這一點。現在您開始看到現場業務中這種更高的利潤積壓，以通過損益表。這主要是我們預期的原因——我們在第三季度的價格/成本為正，這將在第四季度和未來加速。

The best example we said, Julian, is the statistics are quoted for North America where you see a significant increase in margin sequentially, so about 4.5 points Q4 over Q3 in segment EBITDA margin. And you see it also in the delta between booked margin and also bill margin as well. So one being higher than the other by 4 points.

我們所說的最好的例子，朱利安，引用了北美的統計數據，您看到該地區的利潤率連續顯著增加，因此第四季度的 EBITDA 利潤率比第三季度高出約 4.5 個百分點。您也可以在預訂保證金和票據保證金之間的增量中看到它。所以一個比另一個高 4 個點。

Let me just add, Julian, too. The other is the mix. As we got behind on our building management system, the electronic systems that go into our solution set, certainly, that has a big impact because there's a multiple there as it gets installed and then serviced within our business. And so we saw our accelerating recovery during the third quarter. We just had a very strong July with our electronic building management systems, and that drives significant revenue as well as from a mix standpoint getting back to where we were historically with that content.

讓我也補充一下，朱利安。另一個是混合。當我們在樓宇管理系統方面落後時，進入我們的解決方案集的電子系統當然會產生很大的影響，因為在安裝並在我們的業務中提供服務時，那裡有多個系統。因此，我們在第三季度看到了加速復蘇。我們的電子建築管理系統剛剛度過了非常強勁的 7 月，這推動了可觀的收入，並且從混合的角度來看，我們回到了歷史上使用該內容的位置。

So that's another contributor. In addition to what Olivier said about the pricing. Just to understand this pricing dynamic in our field-based business, up until it was over a year ago when we were going to be in a inflationary period, but not the hyperinflation that we experienced, and we've been working to claw back on those contracts. Obviously, the additional cost, but it's difficult to get it fully recovered.

所以這是另一個貢獻者。除了奧利維爾所說的定價。只是為了了解我們基於現場的業務中的這種定價動態，直到一年多前我們將處於通貨膨脹時期，但不是我們所經歷的惡性通貨膨脹，我們一直在努力挽回那些合同。顯然，額外的成本，但很難完全收回。

We've been booking the last year at a much higher level of cost with a much higher level of anticipated inflation and then above and beyond that booking very attractive margins in this environment because of the demand. And so what you'll see and what Olivier said is seeing the mix now of those projects beginning to come through with the higher mix of content that is helping the margin rate.

去年我們一直以更高的成本水平預訂，預期的通貨膨脹水平也更高，然後在這種環境下，由於需求，超出預訂的利潤非常有吸引力。因此，您將看到以及 Olivier 所說的是，現在這些項目的組合開始通過更高的內容組合實現，這有助於提高利潤率。

Julian, one statistic. Pricing in the field business in aggregate in the P&L, 3 points in Q1. In Q4, we expect it to be about 7 points, just to complement the analytics we have been talking about.

朱利安，一項統計數據。損益表中現場業務的總體定價，第一季度為 3 個點。在第四季度，我們預計它約為 7 分，只是為了補充我們一直在談論的分析。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

George, wonder if we could start off on EMEA Fire & Security. It looks like to me, orders have held in pretty well. Probably, some of that price you just noted that the price uptick has been pretty good, but it doesn't seem to really match maybe some of the like energy retrofit or energy scarcity teams that might be holding up demand elsewhere in Europe? What are you guys seeing on that? And there -- have there been any whispers of the market of a slowdown?

喬治，想知道我們是否可以從 EMEA Fire & Security 開始。在我看來，訂單一直保持得很好。可能，您剛剛注意到價格上漲的部分價格相當不錯，但它似乎並不真正匹配可能會阻礙歐洲其他地方需求的能源改造或能源稀缺團隊？你們對此有何看法？還有——有沒有關於市場放緩的傳言？

Yes. So when we look at -- you really have to look at Fire & Security more broadly and not necessarily by domain. We've been incorporating this into more of our building systems offering, so not just Fire & Security, but other offerings. Certainly, the domain itself is very attractive because of the service that we spin out. And then we're going back after the installed base as part of our services to be able to upgrade and then with connectivity be able to perform more services.

是的。因此，當我們查看時，您確實必須更廣泛地查看消防和安全，而不一定要按領域。我們一直將其納入我們更多的建築系統產品中，因此不僅僅是消防和安全產品，還有其他產品。當然，由於我們推出的服務，域本身非常有吸引力。然後，作為我們服務的一部分，我們將返回已安裝的基礎，以便能夠升級，然後通過連接能夠執行更多服務。

So what you're seeing is that playing out. So we're creating demand with the installed base. We're upgrading. We're connecting, and then ultimately, we're capitalizing on what there is for new projects that are coming through the market. And so I think you're seeing an output of that, and I think the team is executing very well.

所以你所看到的是正在上演。因此，我們正在利用已安裝的基礎創造需求。我們正在升級。我們正在連接，然後最終，我們正在利用市場上的新項目。所以我認為你看到了這樣的結果，我認為團隊執行得非常好。

The other thing, Josh, is that we have been constrained in the semiconductor with the semiconductor materials. And our teams have done a really nice job working with all of our semiconductor manufacturers with line of sight now to run rates that are much higher than what we were achieving. And so our ability to be able to then sell and convert, especially on some of the shorter cycle projects has been a real advantage for us.

喬希，另一件事是我們在半導體材料方面受到了限制。我們的團隊與我們所有的半導體製造商合作做得非常好，現在可以看到遠高於我們所達到的運行速度。因此，我們能夠進行銷售和轉換，特別是在一些較短週期的項目上，這對我們來說是一個真正的優勢。

And so I think it's a combination of those elements. And we saw our Fire & Security in total actually very attractive across the board with the work that we're doing not only in the product level, but also the solution set. And then more importantly, the way that we're executing on the installed base with service.

所以我認為這是這些元素的結合。我們看到我們的消防和安全總體上非常有吸引力，我們所做的工作不僅在產品級別，而且在解決方案集上。然後更重要的是，我們在已安裝的基礎上執行服務的方式。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just on pricing, you covered a lot of ground in terms of catching up on inflation, but I'm sort of wondering what it looks like on the other end. So the field business, more like bidded jobs rather than list pricing, I guess. Is there a point at which it becomes harder to hold up price with some of the inputs maybe being disinflationary or deflationary like some of the raw math. Like how do you guys go about maintaining the price on some of those bidded jobs down the line?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後就定價而言，你在趕上通貨膨脹方面覆蓋了很多基礎，但我有點想知道它在另一端是什麼樣子。所以現場業務，更像是投標工作而不是定價，我猜。是否有一些輸入可能會像一些原始數學一樣導致通貨緊縮或通貨緊縮，從而難以維持價格。就像你們如何維持這些投標工作的價格？

Yes. So the core to what we're doing is creating increased value. And so when you look at the solutions that we're providing, we're leveraging OpenBlue, we're really differentiating the type of solutions that we serve to the most attractive verticals. And as a result of that, we've been getting high demand and putting high-quality backlog into -- high-quality projects into our backlog. And so when you look historically, our backlog is pretty sticky because they're all typically funded and ultimately, started in -- and no matter if we get into a recessionary period, that price holds up relative to how we execute on the projects.

是的。所以我們所做的核心是創造更多的價值。因此，當您查看我們提供的解決方案時，我們正在利用 OpenBlue，我們確實將我們提供的解決方案類型與最具吸引力的垂直行業區分開來。因此，我們一直在獲得高需求並將高質量的待辦事項 - 高質量的項目放入我們的待辦事項中。因此，從歷史上看，我們的積壓工作非常棘手，因為它們通常都是有資金的，並且最終開始於 - 無論我們是否進入衰退期，相對於我們在項目上的執行方式，這個價格都會保持不變。

And so I think it's this focus on our strategy on the value proposition, on the returns that we're getting with the additional content that we're putting into the solution set and then ultimately, building an installed base that enables us to go back and not only have that installed base connected, but then build a suite of solutions or services -- digital services that we apply to that installed base on a go-forward basis, which makes it really sticky.

所以我認為這是我們關注價值主張的戰略，關注我們通過添加到解決方案集中的額外內容獲得的回報，然後最終建立一個使我們能夠返回的安裝基礎不僅連接了已安裝的基礎，而且還構建了一套解決方案或服務——我們在前進的基礎上應用到已安裝的基礎上的數字服務，這使得它非常具有粘性。

So those are the fundamentals of how we're booking. And I would tell you, we've been extremely disciplined. When this all accelerated, it was over a year ago last summer when the view that inflation wasn't going to be transitory, and there was really going to be a significant ramp up. I can assure you that on a go-forward basis, we were booking that into the baseline. Now obviously, what you saw in third quarter was the inflection point of the older projects prior to that coming through in the third quarter.

所以這些是我們如何預訂的基礎。我會告訴你，我們一直非常自律。當這一切加速時，是一年多前的去年夏天，當時人們認為通脹不會是暫時的，而且確實會大幅上升。我可以向您保證，在前進的基礎上，我們已將其納入基線。現在很明顯，您在第三季度看到的是舊項目在第三季度之前的拐點。

But as you go forward, you'll have a higher mix of these newer projects that ultimately are fully costed and then they're tied to a higher value proposition that ultimately is a key element of the overall pricing.

但隨著您的發展，您將擁有更多這些新項目的組合，這些項目最終完全成本核算，然後它們與更高的價值主張相關聯，最終成為整體定價的關鍵要素。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

So maybe I do want to start on the -- just to make sure I understand the supply chain and what's embedded in the guidance for 4Q. I mean, is there still an impact from supply chain embedded in your guidance? And then also just on the EMEALA margins, I may have missed this, very helpful commentary on North America. But what's the expected EMEALA margin in 4Q?

所以也許我確實想開始 - 只是為了確保我了解供應鏈以及第四季度指南中嵌入的內容。我的意思是，您的指導中是否仍然存在供應鏈的影響？然後也只是在 EMEALA 邊緣，我可能錯過了這個關於北美的非常有用的評論。但 EMEALA 第 4 季度的預期利潤率是多少？

I'll take the first on the supply chain, and then I'll ask Olivier to comment on the EMEALA margins. What I said was, we've seen a noticeable improvement in our supply chain. And we knew from second quarter to third quarter, there was going to be a big sequential ramp because of our normal seasonality, and we weren't going to be able to recover significantly in that quarter. But on a go-forward basis, we're building resiliency in working with our suppliers for the supplier materials to be able to sustain that level of production on a go-forward basis. And I'd say, overall, we made good progress.

我將首先考慮供應鏈，然後我會請 Olivier 評論 EMEALA 利潤。我說的是，我們已經看到我們的供應鏈有了顯著的改善。而且我們知道，從第二季度到第三季度，由於我們正常的季節性，將會有一個很大的連續增長，而且我們在那個季度將無法顯著恢復。但在前進的基礎上，我們正在與供應商合作，使供應商材料能夠在前進的基礎上維持該生產水平。我想說，總的來說，我們取得了很好的進展。

And then what I would say is that we're getting much better visibility on a go-forward basis. So when we look at run rates, any one of our domains or any one of our -- whether it's HVAC domains or Fire & Security, we have a pretty good line of sight now to the critical materials on a run rate basis that sustains our volumes. If you look at our volumes, at least in Global Products, both the internal and external volume that we have, we're at an elevated level.

然後我想說的是，我們在前進的基礎上獲得了更好的可見性。因此，當我們查看運行速率時，我們的任何一個領域或我們的任何一個領域——無論是 HVAC 領域還是消防與安全領域，我們現在對維持我們的運行速率基礎上的關鍵材料有了很好的了解。卷。如果你看看我們的銷量，至少在全球產品方面，我們擁有的內部和外部銷量，我們都處於較高的水平。

So we're going to continue at the level we're at or maybe a little bit better sequentially into Q4. And our goal is to continue to sustain the supply chain as we set up for the first half of next year. So that's the plan. And some of that now Olivier can talk about the margin structure and how that ultimately comes through, especially I think the question was around EMEALA.

因此，我們將在第四季度繼續保持我們所處的水平，或者可能會更好一點。我們的目標是繼續維持我們為明年上半年設立的供應鏈。所以這就是計劃。其中一些現在 Olivier 可以談論保證金結構以及最終如何實現，特別是我認為問題是圍繞 EMEALA。

Yes. So 2 comments. One, on the supply chain, just to give you a number, Joe, we still have planning for some disruption. About half of what we had in Q3, if you want to give a -- to use a number, the disruption is expected to be a headwind of about $35 million in Q4 due to supply chain. In terms of EMEALA, largely what played out in EMEALA in Q3 is what we have discussed for North America. If you were to look at Q4, we expect EMEALA margin to be flat year-on-year, a very similar trend to what we're expecting for North America where the margin should be directionally flat year-on-year as well.

是的。所以2條評論。一，在供應鏈上，給你一個數字，喬，我們仍在計劃一些中斷。我們在第三季度的大約一半，如果你想給出一個 - 使用一個數字，由於供應鏈，預計第四季度的中斷將是約 3500 萬美元的逆風。就歐洲、中東和非洲地區而言，第三季度在歐洲、中東和非洲地區所發生的主要是我們為北美所討論的。如果您查看第四季度，我們預計 EMEALA 利潤率將與去年同期持平，這與我們對北美的預期非常相似，北美的利潤率也應與去年同期持平。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Can you hear me okay?

你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Please go ahead, yes.

請繼續，是的。

George, can you talk about the Healthy Buildings orders? Are these competitively bid out? Are they -- just a little bit of color on kind of the profitability and what you expect out of these.

喬治，你能談談健康建築的命令嗎？這些是競爭性出價嗎？他們是 - 只是對盈利能力和你對這些的期望有一點點顏色。

Yes. So what I would say, it's called this is really playing out to our strengths, and it's been really attractive. I think from the start, we sized it to be $10 billion or $15 billion with a double-digit CAGR. That's playing out over the last 2 years at or maybe even above that. It's been buoyed by the U.S. relief and stimulus funding. There's other global government programs that are focused on IAQ. And a lot of this is actually converging with the focus on sustainability.

是的。所以我想說的是，這真的是在發揮我們的優勢，而且非常有吸引力。我認為從一開始，我們就將其規模定為 100 億美元或 150 億美元，複合年增長率為兩位數。在過去的 2 年裡，這種情況正在或什至更高。它受到美國救濟和刺激資金的提振。還有其他專注於 IAQ 的全球政府計劃。其中很多實際上與對可持續性的關注融合在一起。

So when you look at our year-to-date orders, we're up over $400 million in '22, up 27%, and that was over a strong year last year, and that's continuing. We see the budgeting that our customers have relative to doing these upgrades. And so the pipeline right now is about $1.3 billion on a go-forward basis. And I think what differentiates us, Scott, to your question is, the OpenBlue indoor air quality as a service, where it isn't just one domain, it's our ability to be able to take the combination of what we do with our equipment, with the digital aspect of the building that ultimately delivers the outcome at the highest level relative to what we deliver.

因此，當您查看我們年初至今的訂單時，我們在 22 年增加了超過 4 億美元，增長了 27%，這比去年的強勁表現還要好，而且這種情況還在繼續。我們看到我們的客戶在進行這些升級方面的預算。因此，目前的管道未來約為 13 億美元。我認為，斯科特，對於你的問題，我們的不同之處在於，OpenBlue 室內空氣質量即服務，它不僅僅是一個領域，它是我們能夠結合使用我們的設備所做的事情的能力，建築物的數字方面最終提供了相對於我們所提供的最高水平的結果。

And therefore, you get obviously the returns for, very attractive returns. And I think what we've been doing here is patenting the optimization solutions that we're developing and enabling our customers, which takes into account not just the Healthy Buildings aspect, but also balancing that with the energy cost that are incurred to be able to elevate the indoor air quality and actually not just use additional energy, actually consume -- conserve energy while you're delivering a higher outcome for the customer.

因此，您顯然會獲得非常有吸引力的回報。而且我認為我們在這裡一直在為我們正在開發的優化解決方案申請專利，並為我們的客戶提供支持，這不僅考慮到健康建築方面，而且還要平衡這一點與產生的能源成本能夠提升室內空氣質量，實際上不僅僅是使用額外的能源，而是實際消耗——在為客戶提供更高成果的同時節約能源。

And so we're continuing to advance our portfolio. I think over the last 2 years, we've had 25 products -- new products, new solutions launched supporting this effort. I think we feel very good about the continued growth rate and the margin profile that we're getting on these solutions that we're serving our customers with.

因此，我們將繼續推進我們的產品組合。我認為在過去 2 年中，我們推出了 25 種產品——新產品、新解決方案推出支持這項工作。我認為我們對我們為客戶提供服務的這些解決方案所獲得的持續增長率和利潤率狀況感到非常滿意。

Yes. That's really helpful, George. And then separately, if I look at Slide 4, you talked about total chiller connections, 8,400, and then growth in chiller connection is 86%. And then revenue from connected devices up 8%. How are those connected? Meaning, would we expect a rising revenue growth rate going forward as those short connections start to generate revenues for you? Or I'm just trying to kind of reconcile how those numbers match up.

是的。這真的很有幫助，喬治。然後分開看，如果我看幻燈片 4，你談到了冷水機連接總數，8,400，然後冷水機連接數增長了 86%。然後來自連接設備的收入增長了 8%。這些是如何連接的？這意味著，隨著這些短連接開始為您創造收入，我們是否會期望未來的收入增長率會上升？或者我只是想調和這些數字是如何匹配的。

Yes. So we're -- what I would say, we're -- I'm very pleased with the progress we're making with services in general, and it's really the services flywheel, where we went back and have assessed our entire installed base. We looked at what we were doing today with more of our mechanical services. And then what we did over the last -- it's really been the last year, going back to mine that installed base and getting -- going back and getting that older equipment connected, ultimately providing offerings for -- once you get the connection, the use of the data and ultimately developing additional data services that optimizes the use of the chiller.

是的。所以我們 - 我會說，我們 - 我對我們在服務方面取得的總體進展感到非常滿意，這實際上是服務飛輪，我們回去評估了我們的整個安裝根據。我們通過更多的機械服務來審視我們今天所做的事情。然後我們在去年所做的——實際上是去年，回到我的已安裝基礎並獲得——返回並連接舊設備，最終提供產品——一旦你獲得連接，使用數據並最終開發優化冷水機組使用的額外數據服務。

And so it's been not only with the existing contracts, getting them all connected as part of our existing contract and then being able to take the new services and add on to that. So you get more revenue per customer, but it's also been mining the installed base to be able to pick up some of that installed base that whatever reason we hadn't been serving. And so we're up -- the enabler of that, Scott, is OpenBlue.

因此，不僅僅是現有合同，將它們全部連接為我們現有合同的一部分，然後能夠採用新服務並添加到其中。因此，您可以從每位客戶那裡獲得更多收入，但它也一直在挖掘已安裝的基礎，以便能夠獲得一些我們沒有提供服務的已安裝基礎。所以我們起來了——Scott 的推動者是 OpenBlue。

So we launched a very efficient gateway with OpenBlue that allows us to have very -- is very efficient in how we can go back and connect it and get the immediate use of the data. And that, as a result, has accelerated our ability to connect. We're up to over 8,400, up 86% year-on-year, and that's only going to accelerate on a go-forward basis. And so it's helping our attach rate. And so when you go in and whether it's a new piece of equipment or an existing PSA, you go in -- with that attachment, our renewals are much higher as well as when you put out a new piece of equipment, it enables us to be able to manage that equipment through warranty much more efficiently.

因此，我們使用 OpenBlue 推出了一個非常高效的網關，它使我們能夠非常 - 非常高效地返回並連接它並立即使用數據。結果，這加快了我們的聯繫能力。我們達到 8,400 多個，同比增長 86%，而且這只會在前進的基礎上加速。所以它有助於我們的附加率。因此，當您進入時，無論是新設備還是現有 PSA，您都進入 - 有了這種附件，我們的續訂率要高得多，而且當您推出新設備時，它使我們能夠能夠通過保修更有效地管理該設備。

And it makes it more sticky to that go forward, getting the service on a go-forward basis. Those 2 combined and then with some added services we've launched, OpenBlue Chiller, Vibrational Analysis, Energy Advisory, there's a lot of other added capabilities that once you get that connection, there's a lot more value that can be created in how you serve that installed base. So those are the elements that come together, but we're very encouraged with the progress we've made to date.

並且它使它更加堅持前進，在前進的基礎上獲得服務。將這 2 項結合起來，再加上我們推出的一些附加服務，OpenBlue Chiller、振動分析、能源諮詢，還有許多其他附加功能，一旦您獲得這種連接，您的服務方式就可以創造更多價值安裝基地。所以這些是結合在一起的元素，但我們對迄今為止取得的進展感到非常鼓舞。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

A couple of ground here. Just -- I just wanted to go back to these 4Q margins, and Olivier, I think you pointed to 11% margins in EMEALA and 15% plus in North America. When we look at that sequential improvement, you talked about the 4 points better book backlog versus what's being built today, and you've also talked about supply chain improvements.

這裡有幾個地方。只是 - 我只是想回到這些第四季度的利潤率，奧利維爾，我認為你指出 EMEALA 的利潤率為 11%，北美的利潤率為 15% 以上。當我們看到這種連續的改進時，您談到了與今天正在建造的相比，圖書積壓好 4 分，您還談到了供應鏈的改進。

So I'm just wondering, when we go from 3Q to 4Q in those 2 segments, how much of it is getting that better price backlog out versus supply chain improvements? And then maybe just on this 4 points of improved margin, what is the cost assumption you're making there? Are we using current costs? Are we assuming some inflation metric on future costs?

所以我只是想知道，當我們在這兩個細分市場從第三季度到第四季度時，與供應鏈改善相比，有多少是更好的積壓價格？然後也許只是在這 4 點提高的利潤率上，你在那裡做出的成本假設是什麼？我們是否使用當前成本？我們是否假設了一些未來成本的通脹指標？

So many questions here, Nigel. In the improvement in the margin in Q4, it's mainly due to now us realizing our billing orders which were booked about 9, 12 months ago at our lower level of inflation, and the improvement you see now in the P&L is largely due to the realization of those orders at high margin, less to the improvement in the turn rate of the backlog. The turn-in of the backlog is starting, but it's going to be mainly pronounced next year. That's the assumption. In terms of cost, we are assuming today in our cost future inflation, so future inflation in high single digits. And the orders we have been realizing and you saw that the order flow for our business was very strong, the order flow is actually based upon business won with this high single-digit inflation, Nigel.

這裡有很多問題，奈傑爾。在第四季度利潤率的改善中，主要是由於現在我們在較低的通貨膨脹水平下實現了大約 9、12 個月前預訂的賬單訂單，而您現在在損益表中看到的改善主要是由於實現了在高利潤的那些訂單中，對積壓的周轉率的改善較少。積壓工作的上交已經開始，但主要在明年明顯。這就是假設。在成本方面，我們假設我們今天的成本未來通貨膨脹，所以未來通貨膨脹在高個位數。我們一直在實現的訂單，您看到我們業務的訂單流非常強勁，訂單流實際上是基於以高個位數通脹贏得的業務，奈傑爾。

Okay. Now since I asked about 5 questions there, you actually answered it very efficiently. And then maybe talk about the international residential business. It's obviously a bit of a black box for many of us. Maybe just address kind of how you -- maybe, George, how you're viewing some of the major territories as we go into 2023, China, Japan? And then maybe just address the European heat pump opportunity and how well positioned Hitachi is for that?

好的。現在因為我在那裡問了大約 5 個問題，你實際上回答得非常有效。然後也許談談國際住宅業務。對於我們中的許多人來說，這顯然是一個黑匣子。也許只是談談你的看法——喬治，你如何看待我們進入 2023 年的一些主要地區，中國，日本？然後也許只是解決歐洲熱泵的機會以及日立在這方面的定位如何？

Yes. So if you look at our JCH business, obviously, we have a strong presence in Japan and Taiwan. Taiwan has been performing very well. Japan has been a little bit softer as it relates to the residential offering. But the rest of the world, where we've been expanding our footprint and working to gain share, we've actually been doing very well. India has come back from where they were pretty much -- pretty soft during the whole COVID cycle, that's coming back.

是的。因此，如果您查看我們的 JCH 業務，顯然我們在日本和台灣擁有強大的影響力。台灣的表現非常好。日本在住宅產品方面的表現稍微溫和一些。但是在世界其他地方，我們一直在擴大我們的足跡並努力獲得份額，我們實際上做得很好。印度已經從他們幾乎處於的狀態中恢復過來——在整個 COVID 週期中非常軟弱，這種情況正在恢復。

We're seeing nice growth in Europe because of the offering and the strong heat pump portfolio that we have within the JCH portfolio. We're seeing nice pickup in Europe, and we continue to work to expand our presence here in North America. But overall, I mean, even though we have high growth, it's to a small base. So overall, we've been -- from a reinvestment standpoint, we've had high reinvestment. We've got a lot of new products, new heat pumps that are coming into the market, and we feel very good about it on a go-forward basis.

由於我們在 JCH 產品組合中擁有的產品和強大的熱泵產品組合，我們在歐洲看到了良好的增長。我們在歐洲看到了不錯的回升，我們將繼續努力擴大我們在北美的影響力。但總的來說，我的意思是，即使我們有高增長，但基數很小。所以總的來說，我們一直 - 從再投資的角度來看，我們有很高的再投資。我們有很多新產品，新的熱泵正在進入市場，我們對此感到非常滿意。

Let me -- and what was the second part, Nigel?

讓我——第二部分是什麼，奈傑爾？

It is about the European heat pump opportunity. I think you addressed that. So within that...

這是關於歐洲熱泵的機會。我想你解決了這個問題。所以在那...

Well, what I would say on that because I think it is important there. When you look at what's happening in Europe, the decarbonizing trend is underpinned by the solid strategy with the green deal, which is to get to net zero by 2050. And then it's underpinned by EU-level legislation, which is climate law, energy efficiency directive as well as energy performance of Buildings. And so then you see what happened with this repower EU directive, which is to create independence from Russian fossil fuels by, I think, it's by 2027, this is going to require new public buildings must be zero emission by 2027.

好吧，我會說什麼，因為我認為這很重要。當你看看歐洲正在發生的事情時，脫碳趨勢得到了綠色協議的堅實戰略的支持，即到 2050 年實現淨零排放。然後它得到歐盟層面立法的支持，即氣候法、能源效率指令以及建築物的能源性能。然後你會看到這個重新授權的歐盟指令發生了什麼，我認為到 2027 年要從俄羅斯的化石燃料中獨立出來，這將要求新的公共建築到 2027 年必須實現零排放。

The worst-performing buildings, 15% of the stock have to be upgraded, and then there's going to be an obligation to get an energy performance certificate. So when you play that out, Nigel, given our offering across our entire HVAC portfolio, it does play to our strengths with what we've been doing to get to low GWP, at the same time, reducing the energy consumed for the applications that we bring into that market. And so we feel very good about that.

性能最差的建築，15% 的庫存必須升級，然後有義務獲得能源性能證書。因此，當您發揮這一點時，奈傑爾，鑑於我們在整個 HVAC 產品組合中提供的產品，它確實發揮了我們的優勢，我們一直在努力實現低 GWP，同時減少應用的能源消耗我們帶入那個市場。所以我們對此感覺很好。

And an additional statistic, Nigel. In terms of heat pump revenue through the portfolio, not only in resi in Q3, it was close to $1 billion for the quarter only.

還有一個額外的統計數據，奈傑爾。就通過投資組合獲得的熱泵收入而言，不僅在第三季度的熱泵收入中，僅在該季度就接近 10 億美元。

And that's across the whole portfolio?

那是整個投資組合嗎？

It is, indeed.

這的確是。

Our next question...

我們的下一個問題...

We'll take one more question.

我們再回答一個問題。

Our final test question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的最終測試問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

Just start off with a clarification on sizing the impact of the supply chain disruptions. You said $45 million this quarter, improving to a $35 million impact in the fourth quarter. Just want to make sure I understand what you're including in that. When you initially said, it sounded like it was from lower absorption in the factory, but are you including all the other related inefficiencies, freight expediting, component shortages, where you got project insulation gets delayed, change orders, all that field service disruption. Is that included in this $45 million improving to $35 million?

首先要澄清供應鏈中斷的影響。你說本季度為 4500 萬美元，第四季度的影響提高到 3500 萬美元。只是想確保我了解您在其中包含的內容。當您最初說時，這聽起來像是工廠吸收率較低，但您是否包括所有其他相關的低效率、貨運加速、組件短缺、項目絕緣延遲、更改訂單以及所有現場服務中斷。這是否包括在這 4500 萬美元增加到 3500 萬美元中？

So let me clarify. $65 million is the level of disruption in Q3. We expect it to be half of that in Q4. So give or take, $35 million. And you're right, this is an all-inclusive number. Absorption and other disruptions to our business, indeed. So it's an all-in number.

所以讓我澄清一下。 6500 萬美元是第三季度的中斷水平。我們預計第四季度將是這一數字的一半。所以給予或接受，3500萬美元。你是對的，這是一個包羅萬象的數字。確實，吸收和其他對我們業務的干擾。所以這是一個全數。

All right. That's really helpful. And then just last one, and maybe this is from prior SAP issue. And every time I hear about ERP rollout, that makes me really nervous. So Olivier, just what modules are you on? Typically, the P&L receivable modules are the ones that had the biggest installation risk, but where does that rollout stand?

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後只是最後一個，也許這是來自以前的 SAP 問題。每次聽到 ERP 的推出，我都感到非常緊張。那麼奧利維爾，你在什麼模塊上？通常情況下，應收損益模塊是安裝風險最大的模塊，但這種部署在哪裡呢？

So we are 2 years in 2 or 5 years project. So we can speak with confidence about where we are now. Usually, when you have an issue, this is at the start. And so far, we have been really meeting our milestones. We're going to launch for our field business, one only ERP on Oracle Cloud. And for our global business, mainly having manufacturing part of it, we will use SAP. And we are very pleased with the way our teams have executed and with the benefit that we will have across the organization from a productivity but also topline impact. No question about this, Deane.

所以我們在 2 年或 5 年的項目中是 2 年。因此，我們可以自信地談論我們現在所處的位置。通常，當您遇到問題時，這是在開始。到目前為止，我們已經真正實現了我們的里程碑。我們將為我們的現場業務推出一個唯一的 Oracle 雲上的 ERP。對於我們的全球業務，主要是製造部分，我們將使用 SAP。我們對我們團隊的執行方式以及我們將在整個組織中從生產力和收入影響中獲得的好處感到非常滿意。毫無疑問，迪恩。

Thanks, Deane. And why don't I take a minute here to wrap up. I want to thank everyone for joining our call today. While 2022 was a headwind and the fundamentals of our business have never been better as we've been working through this, we continue to see strong order momentum, continued service performance and a record backlog with much higher book margins. We've made significant progress with our operational initiatives and the cost reduction measures and are in an optimal position going forward to now capitalize on the strong demand that we continue to see while leveraging our disruptive digital platform.

謝謝，迪恩。為什麼我不在這里花一點時間來總結一下。我要感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。雖然 2022 年是逆風，我們的業務基本面從未像現在這樣好，因為我們一直在努力解決這個問題，但我們繼續看到強勁的訂單勢頭、持續的服務表現和創紀錄的積壓訂單以及更高的賬面利潤。我們在運營計劃和降低成本措施方面取得了重大進展，並且處於最佳位置，現在可以利用我們在利用我們的顛覆性數字平台的同時繼續看到的強勁需求。

I can say, I'm very confident in our outlook, and as we close out the fiscal year and look to drive significant value for our shareholders, customers and communities heading into 2023, and I do look forward to speaking with many of you soon over the next few days. So operator, that concludes our call today.

我可以說，我對我們的前景非常有信心，隨著我們結束本財年並期待在 2023 年為我們的股東、客戶和社區帶來巨大的價值，我確實期待很快與你們中的許多人交談在接下來的幾天裡。接線員，我們今天的電話到此結束。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may disconnect at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。此時您可以斷開連接。