江森自控 (JCI) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Johnson Controls' Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded. If you have any objection, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to Michael Gates, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Thank you.

歡迎來到江森自控 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在錄製此會議。如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。我現在將把電話轉給投資者關係高級總監邁克爾蓋茨。謝謝你。

Good morning, and thank you for joining our conference call to discuss Johnson Controls' Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Results. The press release and all related tables issued earlier this morning as well as the conference call slide presentation can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at johnsoncontrols.com. Joining me on the call today are Johnson Controls' Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, George Oliver; and our Chief Financial Officer, Olivier Leonetti.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的電話會議，討論江森自控 2022 財年第四季度的業績。今天上午早些時候發布的新聞稿和所有相關表格以及電話會議幻燈片演示可以在我們網站 johnsoncontrols.com 的投資者關係部分找到。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有江森自控董事長兼首席執行官喬治奧利弗；以及我們的首席財務官 Olivier Leonetti。

As a reminder, before we begin, during the course of today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information. We ask that you review today's press release and read through the forward-looking cautionary informational statements that we've included there. In addition, we will use certain non-GAAP measures in our discussions, and we ask that you read through those sections of our press release that address the use of these items. In discussing our results during the call, references are made to adjusted earnings per share EBITA and EBIT, excluding restructuring as well as other special items. These metrics, together with organic sales, free cash flow and other measures specified in the slide presentation are non-GAAP measures and are reconciled in the schedules attached to our press release and in the appendix to the presentation posted on our website. Additionally, all comparisons to the prior year are on a continuing ops basis. With that, I will turn the call over to George.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，在今天的電話會議期間，我們將提供某些前瞻性信息。我們要求您查看今天的新聞稿並通讀我們在其中包含的前瞻性警示性信息聲明。此外，我們將在討論中使用某些非 GAAP 措施，我們要求您通讀我們新聞稿中涉及這些項目使用的部分。在電話會議上討論我們的業績時，參考了調整後的每股 EBITA 和 EBIT，不包括重組和其他特殊項目。這些指標連同有機銷售額、自由現金流和幻燈片演示中指定的其他指標是非 GAAP 指標，並在我們的新聞稿所附的時間表和我們網站上發布的演示文稿的附錄中進行了調整。此外，與上一年的所有比較都是基於持續運營。有了這個，我會把電話轉給喬治。

Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on the call today. I will start out with a quick look back at fiscal year 2022 and update you on our progress across our strategic priorities. Olivier will provide a detailed review of our fourth quarter results and our fiscal 2023 guidance. As always, we will leave the remainder of the call to take your questions.

謝謝，邁克，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。首先，我將快速回顧一下 2022 財年，並向您介紹我們在戰略重點方面的最新進展。 Olivier 將對我們的第四季度業績和我們的 2023 財年指導進行詳細審查。與往常一樣，我們將留出剩餘的電話時間來回答您的問題。

Let's begin with Slide 3. As we rounded out fiscal year 2022, we delivered another quarter of solid results that had us meeting or exceeding our updated outlook for the full year. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment that saw our unprecedented inflation levels, foreign exchange headwinds and continued supply chain disruptions, we achieved robust top line growth and maintained margin strength as we close out the fiscal year.

讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始。在 2022 財年結束時，我們又交付了四分之一的穩健業績，使我們達到或超過了我們更新的全年展望。儘管宏觀經濟環境充滿挑戰，我們經歷了前所未有的通脹水平、外匯逆風和持續的供應鏈中斷，但我們在本財年結束時實現了強勁的收入增長並保持了利潤率。

Compared to the prior year, reported sales for the year increased approximately 7% to $25 billion and grew 9% organically, in line with the high end of our guide. The strong demand is also shown in total field orders, up approximately 10% organically year-over-year in our record backlog, which grew significantly, up 13% year-over-year. This strong demand backdrop further highlights our unique value proposition for mission-critical products and services supported by secular trends that continue to drive the industry.

與上一年相比，今年報告的銷售額增長約 7% 至 250 億美元，有機增長 9%，符合我們指南的高端。強勁的需求也體現在總現場訂單中，我們創紀錄的積壓訂單同比增長約 10%，同比增長 13%。這種強勁的需求背景進一步凸顯了我們對關鍵任務產品和服務的獨特價值主張，這些產品和服務受到持續推動行業發展的長期趨勢的支持。

We've made significant progress over the year, working closely with our suppliers to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions. We have also continued to execute our productivity savings plan exceeding our $230 million cost savings target throughout the fiscal year. Lastly, our disciplined approach to pricing has helped drive sequential margin improvement offsetting material foreign exchange impacts as we continue to cycle through our higher-margin backlog during the second half of the fiscal year.

我們在過去一年中取得了重大進展，與我們的供應商密切合作以減輕供應鏈中斷的影響。我們還繼續執行我們的生產力節約計劃，在整個財政年度超過我們 2.3 億美元的成本節約目標。最後，隨著我們在本財年下半年繼續循環處理利潤率較高的積壓訂單，我們嚴格的定價方法幫助推動了連續的利潤率改善，抵消了重大外匯影響。

With our focus on fundamentals and execution, our team's work this year positions Johnson Controls to capitalize on our strong momentum heading into fiscal year 2023. Overall, 2022 was a significant year in improving our operations and increasing our competitive edge as we continue to deliver on enhancing our digital capabilities, leading the way for smart and connected building solutions.

由於我們專注於基本面和執行，我們團隊今年的工作使江森自控能夠利用我們進入 2023 財年的強勁勢頭。總體而言，隨著我們繼續實現增強我們的數字能力，引領智能互聯建築解決方案的發展。

Across the organization, we have continued to invest in key technologies and foster partnerships, allowing us to capitalize on the vectors of growth we serve. We've also continued to gain market share across our global products and services driven by Commercial HVAC, Industrial Refrigeration and fire detection.

在整個組織中，我們繼續投資於關鍵技術並促進合作夥伴關係，使我們能夠利用我們所服務的增長載體。我們還在商業暖通空調、工業製冷和火災探測驅動的全球產品和服務中繼續獲得市場份額。

We are in a great position to realize the benefits of our transformative service offerings through our differentiated digital platform. And as the trends for healthy and sustainable buildings continue to expand, I am confident in the strength of our capabilities, which continues to serve the needs of our customers.

我們處於有利地位，可以通過我們差異化的數字平台實現我們變革性服務產品的優勢。隨著健康和可持續建築的趨勢不斷擴大，我對我們的能力充滿信心，我們將繼續滿足客戶的需求。

Lastly, while the market is faced with macro uncertainties, we are seeing tailwinds within our business, favorable government incentives across the world, global heat pump demand and continued backlog strength will provide us with additional momentum heading into fiscal year 2023.

最後，雖然市場面臨宏觀不確定性，但我們看到了我們業務的順風、全球政府的有利激勵措施、全球熱泵需求和持續的積壓實力將為我們進入 2023 財年提供額外的動力。

Now turning to Slide 4. OpenBlue suite of connected solutions continues to play a vital role in meeting our customers' needs, laying the blueprint for the future of smart buildings. In fiscal year 2022, we have significantly expanded our suite of digital services and offerings, spanning across a breadth of devices from connected chillers, industrial refrigeration equipment to connected controls and BAS systems.

現在轉到幻燈片 4。OpenBlue 互聯解決方案套件在滿足客戶需求方面繼續發揮著至關重要的作用，為智能建築的未來奠定了藍圖。在 2022 財年，我們顯著擴展了我們的數字服務和產品套件，涵蓋了從互聯冷水機、工業製冷設備到互聯控制和 BAS 系統的廣泛設備。

To date, we have enhanced the existing connectivity of almost 11,000 chillers through OpenBlue, representing a 106% increase year-over-year. This provides customers with added levels of connectivity to monitor and improve performance with actionable insights. We've also made significant progress in advancing the latest addition of our OpenBlue bridge. With this solution, we can seamlessly reduce the complexity of integrating devices and expand the range of building solutions and devices that interface with the OpenBlue stack.

迄今為止，我們已經通過 OpenBlue 增強了近 11,000 台冷水機組的現有連接性，同比增長 106%。這為客戶提供了更高級別的連接性，以通過可操作的見解來監控和改進性能。我們在推進最新添加的 OpenBlue 橋接方面也取得了重大進展。有了這個解決方案，我們可以無縫地降低集成設備的複雜性，並擴大與 OpenBlue 堆棧接口的構建解決方案和設備的範圍。

This provides our customers with the added benefits of AI at the Edge and gives them the peace of mind that comes with Zero Trust cybersecurity explicitly tailored for operational equipment. Our enterprise Software-as-a-Solution offerings continue to expand, spanning from comprehensive enterprise management to specific customer use cases covering decarbonization, occupant health and safety.

這為我們的客戶提供了邊緣 AI 的額外好處，並讓他們高枕無憂，因為零信任網絡安全是專門為操作設備量身定制的。我們的企業軟件即解決方案產品不斷擴展，從全面的企業管理到涵蓋脫碳、乘員健康和安全的特定客戶用例。

Along with these added capabilities, our footprint is also expanding. During the fourth quarter, we are proud to announce our recently launched OpenBlue Enterprise Management Solution for Ali Cloud, supporting our expansion of smart building solutions into China. The future lies with OpenBlue, and we are excited to continue disrupting the Building environment as we look ahead to the upcoming year.

除了這些新增功能，我們的足跡也在擴大。在第四季度，我們很自豪地宣布我們最近推出了面向阿里雲的 OpenBlue 企業管理解決方案，支持我們將智能建築解決方案擴展到中國。未來取決於 OpenBlue，展望來年，我們很高興能繼續顛覆建築環境。

Moving on to Slide 5. While our digital growth strategies continue to mature, we have accelerated our core service growth through our field business and the strength of our OpenBlue service offerings. In fiscal year 2022, core service orders increased during the fourth quarter, with orders and revenues up over 7% and 8% year-over-year. By 2024, we anticipate additional service revenue opportunities of more than $2 billion.

轉到幻燈片 5。雖然我們的數字增長戰略不斷成熟，但我們通過現場業務和 OpenBlue 服務產品的優勢加速了核心服務的增長。在 2022 財年，核心服務訂單在第四季度有所增加，訂單和收入同比增長超過 7% 和 8%。到 2024 年，我們預計將有超過 20 億美元的額外服務收入機會。

On to Slide 6. Turning to our growth vectors. We are successfully growing our sustainability initiatives. Johnson Controls is uniquely positioned to take full advantage of recent favorable market tailwinds, including credits for renewable offerings from the Inflation Reduction Act to an actionable shift towards heat pump usage as Europe continues to push for energy independence and low-emission alternatives.

轉到幻燈片 6。轉向我們的增長向量。我們正在成功地發展我們的可持續發展計劃。江森自控處於獨特的地位，可以充分利用近期有利的市場順風，包括從通貨膨脹減少法案中獲得可再生能源產品的信貸，以及隨著歐洲繼續推動能源獨立和低排放替代品而向熱泵使用的可操作轉變。

Heat pump demand continues to be a momentum driver, and we have gained market share, realizing $800 million in the quarter, representing 48% of total HVAC sales. Our partnership with Microsoft is driving results in their Beijing's West Campus, helping reduce emissions and improve uptime. In addition, our work with Colorado State University has helped transform the campus and reached net zero electricity throughout our 20-year relationship.

熱泵需求繼續成為推動力，我們獲得了市場份額，本季度實現了 8 億美元，佔 HVAC 總銷售額的 48%。我們與 Microsoft 的合作夥伴關係正在推動他們北京西校區的成果，幫助減少排放並提高正常運行時間。此外，我們與科羅拉多州立大學的合作幫助改造了校園，並在我們 20 年的合作關係中實現了淨零電力。

We help customers design, digitize and deploy solutions to achieve net zero. We are continuously expanding our OpenBlue Net Zero Buildings offerings. Decarbonization is a priority among our customers. And as climate change poses an impending risk, we continue to build out energy-efficient and secure solutions.

我們幫助客戶設計、數字化和部署解決方案以實現淨零排放。我們正在不斷擴展我們的 OpenBlue 淨零建築產品。脫碳是我們客戶的首要任務。隨著氣候變化帶來迫在眉睫的風險，我們繼續構建節能和安全的解決方案。

During Q4, we had our largest historical quarter of about $420 million in orders, which led to secured orders of over $1 billion for the full year, growing 12% year-over-year.

在第 4 季度，我們獲得了歷史上最大的訂單，約為 4.2 億美元，這導致全年獲得超過 10 億美元的訂單，同比增長 12%。

Turning to Slide 7. The healthy buildings market opportunity remains strong as our customers invest in unlocking employee health, wellness and productivity benefits associated with well-managed indoor environments. We are positioned to capture this trend and help customers manage challenges through our OpenBlue indoor air quality as a service with some exciting wins coming in Q4. Additionally, we're leading the way in advancing new solutions and research into the linkage between healthy buildings and decarbonization, helping our customers achieve both outcomes simultaneously.

轉到幻燈片 7。健康建築市場機會依然強勁，因為我們的客戶投資於釋放與管理良好的室內環境相關的員工健康、保健和生產力優勢。我們準備好抓住這一趨勢，並通過我們的 OpenBlue 室內空氣質量即服務幫助客戶應對挑戰，並在第四季度取得一些令人興奮的勝利。此外，我們在推進新解決方案和研究健康建築與脫碳之間的聯繫方面處於領先地位，幫助我們的客戶同時實現這兩個結果。

Notably, during the quarter, we delivered promising results. In fiscal year '22, orders increased 45% year-over-year. Our Healthy Buildings pipeline represents over $1.3 billion in revenue and we expect continued order growth as more customers leverage the value of improved indoor environmental quality.

值得注意的是，在本季度，我們取得了可喜的成果。在 22 財年，訂單同比增長 45%。我們的健康建築管道代表著超過 13 億美元的收入，我們預計隨著越來越多的客戶利用改善室內環境質量的價值，訂單將持續增長。

Now we turn to Slide 8. We consistently demonstrate our commitment to sustainability. During the quarter, Fortune's 2022 Change the World list recognized Johnson Controls for our service offerings of OpenBlue solutions and OpenBlue NetZero Buildings. I'm also very proud that we have been named one of Forbes World's Best Employers in 2022. I am now going to turn the call over to Olivier to go through the financial details of the quarter.

現在我們轉到幻燈片 8。我們始終如一地展示我們對可持續發展的承諾。本季度，《財富》雜誌的 2022 年改變世界榜單認可了江森自控在 OpenBlue 解決方案和 OpenBlue NetZero 建築方面的服務。我也很自豪我們被評為 2022 年福布斯全球最佳雇主之一。我現在將電話轉給奧利維爾，讓他了解本季度的財務細節。

Thanks, George, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the summary on Slide 9. Sales in the quarter were up 10% organically at the high end of our guidance of 9% to 10% growth, with price contributing nearly 9 points in line with what we originally anticipated. We saw a strong performance across our shorter-cycle global products portfolio, up 11%. And our longer-cycle field businesses also performed well, up 10% with solid growth in both service and install. Segment EBITA increased 9% with margins expanding 55 basis points to 16.5%, better leverage on higher volumes, favorable mix and the incremental benefits of our ongoing SG&A and COGS programs more than offset continued supply chain constraints and dilutive but improving price cost.

謝謝，喬治，大家早上好。讓我從幻燈片 9 的總結開始。本季度銷售額有機增長 10%，達到我們 9% 至 10% 增長指導的上限，價格貢獻近 9 個百分點，與我們最初的預期一致。我們的較短週期全球產品組合表現強勁，增長了 11%。我們的長周期現場業務也表現良好，增長了 10%，服務和安裝均實現穩健增長。分部 EBITA 增長 9%，利潤率擴大 55 個基點至 16.5%，更好地利用更高的銷量、有利的組合以及我們正在進行的 SG&A 和 COGS 計劃的增量收益，足以抵消持續的供應鏈限制和稀釋但改善的價格成本。

EPS of $0.99 was at the midpoint of our guidance and increased 13% year-over-year, benefiting from higher profitability as well as lower share count. During the quarter, we absorbed an additional $0.03 of FX headwinds versus the prior guide. Full year free cash flow conversion was 67%. As a result of the disruptions of the supply chain over the last 2 years, we have built up our inventory to meet customer demand.

每股收益 0.99 美元處於我們指引的中點，同比增長 13%，受益於更高的盈利能力和更少的股票數量。在本季度，與之前的指南相比，我們額外吸收了 0.03 美元的外匯逆風。全年自由現金流轉換率為 67%。由於過去 2 年供應鏈中斷，我們已經建立了庫存以滿足客戶需求。

Turning to our EPS bridge on Slide 10. Overall, operations contributed $0.16 versus the prior year, including a $0.07 benefit from our COGS and SG&A productivity program helping to exceed our targeted savings for the year. In the quarter, FX was a $0.05 headwind. In addition, higher net financing charges and noncontrolling interest impacts were offset by a lower share count.

轉向我們在幻燈片 10 上的 EPS 橋樑。總體而言，與上一年相比，運營貢獻了 0.16 美元，包括我們的 COGS 和 SG&A 生產力計劃帶來的 0.07 美元收益，幫助超過了我們今年的目標節省。本季度，外匯逆風 0.05 美元。此外，較高的淨融資費用和非控股權益影響被較低的股份數量所抵消。

Please turn to Slide 11. Orders for our field businesses increased 9% in aggregate. Install orders increased low double digits in the quarter with continued demand for applied HVAC and controls systems. We are also seeing continued strength in our service business with orders up 7%, driven by double-digit growth in both EMEALA and APAC.

請轉到幻燈片 11。我們現場業務的訂單總計增長了 9%。由於對應用 HVAC 和控制系統的持續需求，安裝訂單在本季度增長了兩位數。我們還看到我們的服務業務持續強勁，訂單增長 7%，這得益於 EMEALA 和亞太地區的兩位數增長。

Bill backlog remains at record levels, growing 13% to $11.1 billion, a $1.2 billion increase versus the prior year while remaining flat quarter-over-quarter. Lastly, our Global Products third-party backlog grew more than 25% to $2.3 billion and continues to show strength.

賬單積壓仍處於創紀錄水平，增長 13% 至 111 億美元，比上年增加 12 億美元，但環比持平。最後，我們的全球產品第三方積壓訂單增長了 25% 以上，達到 23 億美元，並繼續顯示出強勁勢頭。

Let's discuss our segment results in more details on Slides 12 and 13. Sales in North America were up 9% organically with broad-based growth across the portfolio. Our installed business grew low double digits with increased retrofit and upgrade projects and new construction growth. Overall, HVAC and controls grew low double digits and Fire & Security increased high single digits.

讓我們在幻燈片 12 和 13 上更詳細地討論我們的部門業績。北美的銷售額有機增長 9%，整個產品組合都有廣泛的增長。隨著改造和升級項目的增加以及新建築的增長，我們的已安裝業務實現了兩位數的低增長。總體而言，HVAC 和控制增長低兩位數，而消防和安全增長高個位數。

Orders were up 13%, with strong growth of more than 50% in our sustainability infrastructure business as our decarbonization solutions continue to resonate with our customers. Applied HVAC orders grew nearly 20% with another solid quarter for equipment orders, up over 30%. Fire & Security orders declined low single digits. Total backlog ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, up 18% year-over-year.

由於我們的脫碳解決方案繼續引起客戶的共鳴，訂單增長了 13%，我們的可持續基礎設施業務增長超過 50%。應用暖通空調訂單增長近 20%，設備訂單又是一個穩健的季度，增長超過 30%。消防和安全訂單下降了低個位數。本季度末總積壓訂單為 75 億美元，同比增長 18%。

Segment margins in the quarter were 14.7%, a sequential improvement of 400 basis points, driven by increased volume leverage and the execution of projects with an improved booked margin profile. A direct result of the pricing discipline implemented earlier in the year. In the quarter, North America continued to be impacted by supply chain disruptions. Overall, supply chain was a $50 million headwind contributing to a 50 basis points decrease in the quarter year-over-year.

本季度的部門利潤率為 14.7%，環比提高 400 個基點，這主要得益於銷量槓桿的增加以及預訂利潤率狀況改善的項目的執行。今年早些時候實施的定價紀律的直接結果。本季度，北美繼續受到供應鏈中斷的影響。總體而言，供應鏈帶來了 5000 萬美元的阻力，導致本季度同比下降 50 個基點。

Sales in EMEALA were up 9% organically with continued strength in Fire & Security business, which grew at a low double-digit rate in Q4, while industrial refrigeration, HVAC and controls grew high single digits and mid-single digits, respectively. By geography, revenue growth was broad-based, with strength in Europe, partially offset by low single-digit decline in both Latin America and the Middle East.

EMEALA 的銷售額有機增長 9%，消防和安保業務持續強勁，該業務在第四季度以低兩位數的速度增長，而工業製冷、HVAC 和控制分別增長了高個位數和中個位數。按地域劃分，收入增長基礎廣泛，歐洲強勁，部分被拉丁美洲和中東的低個位數下降所抵消。

Orders were up 3%, led by high single-digit growth in our Fire & Security platform. Backlog was up 7% to $2 billion. Segment EBITA margin declined 160 basis points to 9.4% as a result of unfavorable region and project mix, along with continued FX headwinds, which offset favorable volume leverage and the benefit of cost savings during the quarter.

在我們的消防和安全平台的高個位數增長的帶動下，訂單增長了 3%。積壓訂單增加了 7%，達到 20 億美元。由於不利的地區和項目組合以及持續的外匯逆風，該部門的 EBITA 利潤率下降 160 個基點至 9.4%，這抵消了本季度有利的銷量槓桿和成本節約的好處。

Sales in Asia Pacific increased 12%, driven by high-teens growth in our HVAC and controls platform. Service performed well in the quarter, growing low double digits in aggregate, benefiting from our shorter-term transactional business in China. Overall, China grew 16%. Orders increased 3%, driven by low double-digit growth in services. Install orders remained flat year-over-year, backlog of $1.6 billion declined 2% year-over-year.

亞太地區的銷售額增長了 12%，這得益於我們的 HVAC 和控制平台的十幾歲增長。本季度服務表現良好，總體增長低兩位數，這得益於我們在中國的短期交易業務。總體而言，中國增長了 16%。訂單增長 3%，受服務業低兩位數增長的推動。安裝訂單同比持平，積壓訂單為 16 億美元，同比下降 2%。

Segment EBITA margins declined 140 basis points to 14%, driven by FX headwinds, lower volumes and unfavorable mix due to higher HVAC shipments, offsetting positive price/cost and the benefit of cost savings. Sales in our shorter-cycle global products business increased 11% in Q4, benefiting from strong price realization of 12%. Commercial HVAC log sales were up mid-teens in aggregate, with strength in light commercial driven by 25% growth in North America and EMEALA, respectively. Applied HVAC sales were up 9% with continued chiller demand within our data center end markets.

受外匯逆風、銷量下降和暖通空調出貨量增加導致不利組合的影響，部門 EBITA 利潤率下降 140 個基點至 14%，抵消了積極的價格/成本和成本節約的好處。我們較短週期的全球產品業務的銷售額在第四季度增長了 11%，這得益於 12% 的強勁價格實現。商業 HVAC 原木銷售額總體增長了 15% 左右，其中北美和 EMEALA 分別增長了 25%，推動了輕型商業的強勁增長。由於我們的數據中心終端市場對冷卻器的持續需求，應用 HVAC 銷售額增長了 9%。

Outside of North America, our global residential HVAC sales were up 8% in the aggregate. North America resi HVAC was up mid-single digits, benefiting from both higher growth in our equipment and parts business and strong price realization. Our HVAC business grew low double digits, led by strong double-digit growth in Europe, driven by continued demand for our Hitachi residential heat pumps.

在北美以外，我們的全球住宅 HVAC 銷售額總體增長了 8%。北美 resi HVAC 增長了中等個位數，這得益於我們的設備和零件業務的更高增長以及強勁的價格實現。我們的 HVAC 業務以兩位數的低位增長，這主要得益於對日立住宅熱泵的持續需求推動了歐洲強勁的兩位數增長。

APAC resi HVAC sales grew high single digits, led by strong growth in Japan. Fire & Security products grew low double digits in aggregate, led by our access control and video solutions business and strong demand in North America and EMEALA for our fire detection products. EBITA margin expanded 300 basis points to 21.9%, driven by the benefit of our productivity actions, higher volume leverage and favorable mix.

在日本強勁增長的帶動下，亞太地區的 Resi HVAC 銷售額實現了高個位數增長。在我們的訪問控制和視頻解決方案業務以及北美和 EMEALA 對我們的火災探測產品的強勁需求的帶動下，消防和安保產品總體增長了兩位數。 EBITA 利潤率擴大 300 個基點至 21.9%，這得益於我們提高生產力的舉措、更高的槓桿率和有利的組合。

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 14. We ended Q4 with $2 billion in available cash and net debt at 1.9x, which is lower than our target range of 2 to 2.5x. As previously mentioned, free cash flow was impacted by temporarily building up inventory to meet customer demand.

轉到幻燈片 14 上的資產負債表和現金流量。第四季度結束時，我們的可用現金和淨債務為 20 億美元，為 1.9 倍，低於我們 2 至 2.5 倍的目標範圍。如前所述，自由現金流受到臨時增加庫存以滿足客戶需求的影響。

In Q4, CapEx spend declined 29%. However, for the year, it increased 7% as we continued to make selective investments to improve efficiency and expand capabilities. Before we get into next year's guidance, I wanted to provide some commentary on the special item recorded in the quarter.

第四季度，資本支出下降了 29%。然而，由於我們繼續進行選擇性投資以提高效率和擴大能力，這一年增長了 7%。在我們進入明年的指導之前，我想對本季度記錄的特殊項目提供一些評論。

We recorded a $255 million charge to increase our environmental remediation and related reserves primarily related to our facility in Marinette, Wisconsin, where contamination exists for the use of fire fighting foam containing PFAS compounds. Over the last 3 years, our team has made significant progress in our investigation and remediation activities, including completing construction of a groundwater extraction and treatment system.

我們記錄了 2.55 億美元的費用，以增加我們的環境修復和相關儲備，主要與我們位於威斯康星州馬里內特的設施有關，那裡存在使用含有 PFAS 化合物的滅火泡沫造成的污染。在過去 3 年中，我們的團隊在調查和修復活動方面取得了重大進展，包括完成了地下水抽取和處理系統的建設。

As a result of that work, we were able to perform a refreshed analysis based on currently available information known to us to date. This resulted in a reasonable estimate of the cost associated with the long-term remediation actions we expect to perform over an estimated period of up to 20 years.

作為這項工作的結果，我們能夠根據我們迄今為止已知的當前可用信息進行更新的分析。這導致對與我們預計在長達 20 年的估計期間內執行的長期補救行動相關的成本進行了合理估計。

Now let's discuss our fiscal year '23 guidance on Slide 15. Currently, we are seeing continued strength in demand adding into the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. Our backlog, which is at historical levels, continue to build along with our continued momentum across end markets. Orders remained strong, ending into Q1 with low double-digit organic growth expected as our value proposition continues to resonate with our customers.

現在讓我們在幻燈片 15 上討論我們的 23 財年指導。目前，我們看到 2023 財年第一季度的需求持續強勁。我們處於歷史水平的積壓訂單隨著我們在整個行業的持續發展勢頭而繼續增加終端市場。由於我們的價值主張繼續引起客戶的共鳴，訂單保持強勁，預計第一季度將實現低兩位數的有機增長。

We anticipate low double-digit organic revenue growth with price contributing 10%. Segment EBITA margin is expected to expand 120 to 130 basis points and adjusted EPS is expected in the range of $0.65 to $0.67, which represents year-over-year growth of 20% to 24%. On a full year basis, we are taking a prudent approach and providing a wide range to reflect the macroeconomic uncertainty that could potentially impact the balance of the fiscal year.

我們預計低兩位數的有機收入增長，其中價格貢獻 10%。部門 EBITA 利潤率預計將擴大 120 至 130 個基點，調整後每股收益預計在 0.65 美元至 0.67 美元之間，同比增長 20% 至 24%。在全年的基礎上，我們採取謹慎的方法並提供廣泛的範圍來反映可能影響財政年度平衡的宏觀經濟不確定性。

Our full year adjusted EPS guidance range of $3.20 to $3.60 represent a 7% to 20% growth rate, respectively. The top quartile of our range signifies our base case scenario. This accounts for normalized GDP growth, continued growth, vector acceleration and conversion of our existing backlog. The low end of this range, $3.20 provide a bookend reflecting a potential downside scenario. This scenario accounts for potential degradation of global GDP, which we believe will be offset by our resilient services and commercial market presence along with additional cost mitigation actions.

我們全年調整後的每股收益指導範圍為 3.20 美元至 3.60 美元，分別代表 7% 至 20% 的增長率。我們範圍的前四分之一表示我們的基本情況。這解釋了正常的 GDP 增長、持續增長、矢量加速和我們現有積壓的轉換。該範圍的低端 3.20 美元提供了一個反映潛在下行情景的書擋。這種情況導致全球 GDP 可能下降，我們認為這將被我們的彈性服務和商業市場存在以及額外的成本緩解措施所抵消。

On the top line, we anticipate high single-digit to low double-digit organic growth with price representing about 10% as our offering continues to resonate with our customers. We anticipate segment EBITA margin expansion of 80 to 120 basis points as we continue to execute our higher booked margin backlog throughout the fiscal year.

最重要的是，隨著我們的產品繼續引起客戶的共鳴，我們預計將實現高個位數到低兩位數的有機增長，價格約佔 10%。我們預計分部 EBITA 利潤率將擴大 80 至 120 個基點，因為我們將在整個財政年度繼續執行較高的預訂利潤率積壓訂單。

Full year cash flow is expected to be between 80% and 90%. Operationally, we continue to improve our working capital management and expect further improvements from the gradual reduction of inventories as supply chain normalizes. As we close our fiscal year, we look forward to accelerating our strategic initiatives. We have aligned our business to minimize potential headwinds to enhance operational improvements, improved cost structure and productivity enhancements.

預計全年現金流量在 80% 至 90% 之間。在運營方面，我們繼續改善營運資金管理，並預計隨著供應鏈正常化，庫存逐漸減少會進一步改善。在我們結束本財年之際，我們期待著加快我們的戰略舉措。我們調整了我們的業務，以盡量減少潛在的不利因素，以加強運營改進、改進成本結構和提高生產力。

We are optimistic given the strong fundamentals across our businesses. The resiliency of our products and services continue to resonate with our customers as our order velocity and backlog remains strong. Adding into fiscal year 2023, we look to continue our growth momentum and invest in advancing our digital service offering while capitalizing on secular trends. With that, operator, please open up the lines for questions.

鑑於我們業務的強勁基本面，我們感到樂觀。我們的產品和服務的彈性繼續與我們的客戶產生共鳴，因為我們的訂單速度和積壓情況依然強勁。進入 2023 財年，我們希望繼續保持增長勢頭，並投資於推進我們的數字服務產品，同時利用長期趨勢。有了這個，接線員，請打開問題的線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Obin, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓。

Yes. Just a question in terms of very nice pricing outlook into next year. I was just wondering if you could give us some color as to what the backlog looks in terms of pricing and what gives you confidence that this kind of pricing will be achievable next year?

是的。只是關於明年非常好的定價前景的問題。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些關於積壓在定價方面的情況的顏色，以及是什麼讓您有信心明年可以實現這種定價？

So if you look at next year, indeed, we are modeling in our guide, 10% of price and about 1% of volume growth. In Q1, the volume would be much higher, about 3% with the price being about 10%. If you look at today, our order velocity today, which includes this kind of pricing is still growing. As we said in our prepared remarks, Q1 order is actually being very healthy and actually accelerating in Q1 relative to Q4. So we believe that the value proposition of our offering is resonating. The backlog is strong and we believe we can command this kind of pricing, Andrew.

所以如果你看一下明年，我們確實在我們的指南中建模，10% 的價格和大約 1% 的銷量增長。在第一季度，交易量會高得多，大約 3%，而價格大約是 10%。如果你看看今天，我們今天的訂單速度，包括這種定價，仍在增長。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，第一季度訂單實際上非常健康，並且相對於第四季度實際上在第一季度加速。因此，我們相信我們產品的價值主張會引起共鳴。積壓量很大，我們相信我們可以控制這種定價，安德魯。

And the next question, we've actually got a couple of questions from investors just regarding your guide for next year. Top line, pretty good; margin, pretty good. I think the low end of the guide just if you sort of try to look versus consensus. Just trying to see if there are any below-the-line items that are sort of impacting the EPS guide, as I said, because the top line and margin looks very much in line or better than the Street, but sort of the midpoint ends up being below.

下一個問題，我們實際上已經從投資者那裡收到了幾個關於你明年指南的問題。頂線，相當不錯；保證金，還不錯。我認為指南的低端只是如果您嘗試查看與共識的對比。正如我所說，只是想看看是否有任何線下項目會影響 EPS 指南，因為頂線和利潤率看起來非常一致或比街更好，但有點中點結束在下面。

So what we indicated in our prepared remarks is that the wider range add 2 scenarios from a macro standpoint, a base scenario, which is what we believe is going to be the most likely case which will be the top quartile of the guide. That would equate to an EPS range of $3.60 to $3.50. Why do we believe it's the base scenario? A few reasons for that. One, at a macro level, the economy we are facing is still growing. Dodge, if you take the U.S., 51%. ABI is still strong. PMI at about 50. So no indication today that we have a slowdown. That's point number one. Point number two, our order velocity is still very strong. And we mentioned what those numbers were for Q1. We have various incentive programs around the world, in the U.S., Europe. We have a strong backlog. We have a very resilient service business and a strong commercial exposure. So we believe that the base case is a top quartile guide.

因此，我們在準備好的評論中指出，從宏觀角度來看，更廣泛的範圍增加了 2 個場景，一個基本場景，我們認為這將是最有可能的情況，它將成為指南的前四分之一。這相當於 EPS 範圍為 3.60 美元至 3.50 美元。為什麼我們認為這是基本情景？有幾個原因。第一，在宏觀層面，我們面臨的經濟仍在增長。道奇，如果你拿美國來說，51%。 ABI 仍然很強大。 PMI 約為 50。所以今天沒有跡象表明我們有放緩。這是第一點。第二點，我們的訂單速度仍然非常快。我們提到了第一季度的這些數字。我們在世界各地，美國，歐洲都有各種獎勵計劃。我們有大量積壓。我們擁有非常有彈性的服務業務和強大的商業風險。因此，我們認為基本案例是最高四分位數指南。

Now we're also listening to what is happening out there and you have some economies, some CEO mentioning that we could have a slowdown next year. We believe that the worst case scenario from a slowdown standpoint will translate into a GDP based upon economist estimates of 0% to 1% in terms of growth. And we wanted to give you a bookend of how we will perform in the case we would have a major slowdown of GDP. But today, that's not what we are facing, Andrew, hence, the top quartile reference.

現在我們也在傾聽那裡發生的事情，你有一些經濟，一些首席執行官提到我們明年可能會放緩。我們認為，從經濟放緩的角度來看，最壞的情況將轉化為基於經濟學家估計 0% 至 1% 的 GDP 增長。我們想給你一個書擋，說明在 GDP 大幅放緩的情況下我們將如何表現。但今天，這不是我們面臨的問題，安德魯，因此，這是最高四分位數的參考。

Our next question comes from Steve Tusa.

我們的下一個問題來自 Steve Tusa。

Can you just give a little more color on the guidance by the various segments? And then anything on the bridge that stands out, I guess, just from a residual cost savings or recovery of inefficiencies from this year? And anything that you guys can detail on the EPS bridge.

您能否在各個部門的指導下多說一點？然後橋上有什麼突出的東西，我猜，只是從今年的剩餘成本節省或低效率恢復中？以及你們可以在 EPS 橋上詳細說明的任何內容。

Of course. So if you look at the elements of the guide, today, we see the business for services to be strong. We expect the service business to grow in the 11%, give or take, in-store business to be low double digits and Global Products to be in the mid-teens. Price/cost would be positive. Of course, it was already, Steve, in the year. The price/cost equation is still going to be dilutive though next year. as we are not fully realizing -- covering the inflation we have been facing. That will be the main points regarding the guide. Steve.

當然。因此，如果您查看指南的要素，今天我們會看到服務業務很強大。我們預計服務業務將以 11% 的速度增長，店內業務將保持兩位數的低增長，而全球產品將處於十幾歲左右。價格/成本將是積極的。當然，史蒂夫，已經是一年了。明年，價格/成本方程式仍將稀釋。正如我們沒有完全意識到的那樣——包括我們一直面臨的通貨膨脹。這將是指南的要點。史蒂夫。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

Just one more on the guide, and it doesn't look like you're including much, if any, capital deployment in the guide. What are your thoughts around that? And is there an active M&A pipeline?

指南中還有一個，看起來你在指南中沒有包含太多（如果有的話）資本部署。你對此有何看法？是否有活躍的併購渠道？

So you're right, we are going to have a modest increase in CapEx that was embedded in our free cash flow guide regarding M&A. We have a very active pipeline. We are looking at tuck-in M&A. We're going to be careful about how we deploy cash, particularly in the current climate. And we will invest mainly in our digital and IP acquisitions for our global products, Jeff.

所以你是對的，我們將適度增加資本支出，這已嵌入我們關於併購的自由現金流指南中。我們有一個非常活躍的管道。我們正在考慮合併併購。我們將謹慎對待我們如何部署現金，尤其是在當前的環境下。我們將主要投資於我們全球產品的數字和 IP 收購，Jeff。

Great. And just on PFAS, always fun to talk about, right, but topical today. Just pivoting more to the MDL and the like. I just wonder if you could give us a update on what your strategy is, if this recent ruling kind of against the idea of the government contract or defense in any way kind of changes your posture or how you kind of approach trying to work through a settlement here.

偉大的。就 PFAS 而言，談論起來總是很有趣，對，但今天很熱門。只是更多地轉向 MDL 等。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您的策略是什麼，最近的裁決是否以任何方式改變了您的姿態或您嘗試通過在這裡定居。

No change. The reserve does not include litigation recovery. The litigation is ongoing, and we believe we have a strong defense, including our government contractor defense, Jeff. We also have, as you know, insurance coverage. And at this point, we believe that any financial impact on our company is not probable and -- or estimable. So we have not reserved for this particular item.

沒變。準備金不包括訴訟追償。訴訟正在進行中，我們相信我們有強大的辯護能力，包括我們的政府承包商辯護律師 Jeff。如您所知，我們還有保險。在這一點上，我們認為對我們公司的任何財務影響都是不可能的，而且是不可估計的。所以我們沒有為這個特定項目保留。

Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Nicole DeBlase。

I just want to ask a 3-part question kind of clarifying a few items in the guidance. Number one, is there any supply chain constraint embedded in the outlook versus the $50 million you realized in 4Q? Number two, SG&A cost savings. You guys mentioned that you over executed in fiscal '22. Just curious how much you're getting in fiscal '23? And number three, does the guidance -- could you just confirm that it does not include any buybacks?

我只想問一個由 3 部分組成的問題，以澄清指南中的一些項目。第一，與您在第四季度實現的 5000 萬美元相比，前景中是否存在任何供應鏈限制？第二，節省 SG&A 成本。你們提到你們在 22 財年過度執行。只是好奇你在 23 財年得到了多少？第三，指導意見——你能確認它不包括任何回購嗎？

On the supply chain, we expect the supply chain to normalize half through fiscal year '23. It's still improving sequentially but we believe we are now going to be back to our normal state until midyear. That's point number one. Point number two, on SG&A, and that is embedded in our guide. We actually expect to deliver more productivity savings, and that is included in the guide we gave you, Nicole. And in terms of buyback, as we have said now for a number of quarters, we want to deploy 100% of free cash flow to dividend and buyback. We expect dividend to grow with earnings and the balance to be in buyback, that would be about $1 billion in buyback, Nicole, embedded in our guide.

在供應鏈上，我們預計供應鏈將在 23 財年的一半時間正常化。它仍在連續改善，但我們相信我們現在將回到正常狀態，直到年中。這是第一點。第二點，關於 SG&A，它包含在我們的指南中。實際上，我們希望能夠節省更多的生產力，這包含在我們給您的指南中，妮可。在回購方面，正如我們在多個季度所說的那樣，我們希望將 100% 的自由現金流用於派息和回購。我們預計股息將隨著收益的增長而增長，餘額將用於回購，這將是大約 10 億美元的回購，妮可，我們的指南中包含。

Our next question comes from John Walsh with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰沃爾什。

I wanted to ask you, I guess, this is a little bit about the recent CapEx increase. But obviously, you've took up your capability in U.S. residential. Just curious if you're done expanding production there and kind of how the reception has been in the market with the new product.

我想問你，我想這與最近資本支出的增加有關。但很明顯，你已經在美國住宅中發揮了你的能力。只是好奇你是否在那裡擴大了生產，以及新產品在市場上的接受情況如何。

Yes, I'll take that, John. As it relates to the DOE 2023 and the cutover, we are going -- everything is going well and on plan. And when you look at more than half of our residential portfolio is meeting the DOE 2023 requirements, which have been launched and we're on target to launch the remaining pieces of the portfolio before the required conversion dates. What we've seen is customers can order -- place orders for the products that are already launched. And we're providing customers the opportunity to prebuy products before they're actually formally launched. Now we've been working through the existing backlog and inventory to ensure a seamless transition. We are about 100% done. Cutover is complete in the South, and we're working on the cutover in the north by year-end. Commercial products are on schedule and set to launch through the balance of the calendar year.

是的，我會接受的，約翰。由於它與 DOE 2023 和切換有關，我們正在進行 - 一切進展順利且按計劃進行。當您看到我們一半以上的住宅投資組合滿足 DOE 2023 要求時，這些要求已經啟動，我們的目標是在要求的轉換日期之前啟動剩餘的投資組合。我們所看到的是客戶可以訂購——為已經推出的產品下訂單。我們為客戶提供了在產品實際正式發布之前預購產品的機會。現在，我們一直在處理現有的積壓工作和庫存，以確保無縫過渡。我們大約完成了 100%。南方的交割已經完成，我們正在努力在年底前完成北方的交割。商業產品正按計劃在本日曆年餘下時間推出。

And so overall, we're on track. And I think a lot of the investment that was required to be able to meet those requirements has been put into place, and we feel very good about the way that we're executing on that. I think as this transitions, that will provide a tailwind for us. As you know, we've had a large backlog in residential this year. We've been converting that backlog. We've been timing this transition appropriately with the launch of the new products. And we feel, as we go forward, not only do we get higher price on the new products. But as we now get our run rates better, improve now with the launch, we see significant pickup in our ability to be able to not only reduce the backlog, but be able to then take on new orders with our capacity expansion in residential.

總的來說，我們走上了正軌。而且我認為滿足這些要求所需的大量投資已經到位，我們對我們在這方面的執行方式感到非常滿意。我認為隨著這種轉變，這將為我們提供順風。如您所知，今年我們在住宅方面有大量積壓。我們一直在轉換積壓的訂單。隨著新產品的推出，我們一直在適當地安排這種轉變的時間。而且我們覺得，隨著我們的前進，我們不僅會在新產品上獲得更高的價格。但是，隨著我們現在的運行率提高，隨著產品的推出而得到改善，我們看到我們的能力顯著提高，不僅能夠減少積壓，而且能夠通過我們在住宅領域的產能擴張來接受新訂單。

Great. And then maybe just looking at the forward guidance, can you provide any color on how much of the current backlog will ship next year? Or just how we should think about the backlog conversion into next year?

偉大的。然後也許只看前瞻性指導，您能否提供有關明年將運送多少當前積壓訂單的任何顏色？或者我們應該如何考慮將積壓工作轉換到明年？

So our backlog is about $13 billion. We believe that a large proportion of that should convert next year. And again, going back to the conversation we have had about the guide. That's why also our best case would be a top quartile in terms of EPS range. The backlog will give us a nice coverage. An additional comment on the backlog. This backlog is very resilient. It's associated with very bespoke projects, which are capital tied for our customers. So they want that to be delivered to them.

所以我們的積壓訂單約為 130 億美元。我們認為其中很大一部分應該會在明年轉化。再一次，回到我們關於指南的對話。這就是為什麼我們最好的情況也是每股收益範圍的前四分之一。積壓將給我們一個很好的報導。關於積壓的附加評論。這個積壓是非常有彈性的。它與非常定制的項目相關聯，這些項目與我們的客戶息息相關。所以他們希望將其交付給他們。

John, let me add some color on that. When you look at our global product businesses and how that played out through the year, certainly, we had a low first half and then we had a pretty significant step up here with our seasonality in Q3. And we've continued to improve our supply chain to maintain that pace as we get into the first half of 2023. And so we've seen a nice recovery in our units. As far as our supply chain recovery, it has been across our applied in building management system products. We've had a little bit of a constraint within our residential, but as I said earlier, that is being addressed with our capacity expansion and through the conversion now to the DOE 2023. We've got all of our suppliers now on a recovery rate that supports a run rate through the first half that gets us positioned to recover a lot of the backlog in the first half as we ramp up for the seasonality in 2023 in third quarter.

約翰，讓我在上面添加一些顏色。當您查看我們的全球產品業務以及全年的表現時，當然，我們上半年表現不佳，然後我們在第三季度的季節性方面取得了相當大的進步。隨著我們進入 2023 年上半年，我們繼續改善我們的供應鏈以保持這種速度。因此我們看到我們的部門出現了良好的複蘇。就我們的供應鏈恢復而言，它已經貫穿於我們在建築管理系統產品中的應用。我們在住宅中遇到了一些限制，但正如我之前所說，我們正在通過產能擴張和現在轉換為 DOE 2023 來解決這個問題。我們所有的供應商現在都在復蘇支持整個上半年的運行率的比率使我們能夠在上半年恢復大量積壓，因為我們在第三季度增加了 2023 年的季節性。

So we've made a lot of progress. Our supply chain teams have done a heck of a job working through this, and feel confident that we'll get back to normal lead times and normal backlogs by the end of 2023.

所以我們取得了很大的進步。我們的供應鏈團隊為此做了大量工作，並且有信心到 2023 年底我們將恢復正常的交貨時間和正常的積壓。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

I just wanted to circle back to the guidance. I think you'd said that you're assuming only 1% volume growth in fiscal '23. But I just wondered if you've got this big backlog and supply chain is easing, why wouldn't the volume growth be several points higher? And maybe tied to that, your guide embeds faster margin expansion early in the year than the balance even though price/cost and supply chain get easier as the year goes on. So just trying to understand that. Is there something assumed in the volume guide for the back half or something on mix, which is kind of pulling down the margin and offsetting the supply chain and price/cost tailwind?

我只是想回到指導。我想你曾說過，你假設 23 財年的銷量僅增長 1%。但我只是想知道如果你有這麼大的積壓並且供應鏈正在放鬆，為什麼銷量增長不會高出幾個百分點？也許與此相關，儘管價格/成本和供應鏈隨著時間的推移變得更加容易，但您的指南在年初嵌入了比餘額更快的利潤增長。所以只是想了解這一點。後半部分的數量指南中是否有一些假設或混合的東西，這有點拉低利潤率並抵消供應鍊和價格/成本順風？

You're right. This is a prudent assumption. If you look at Q1, where we have more visibility, volume is actually 3 points of the growth, which would be back to historical average. We are planning for the year, a lower level of volume based upon us being prudent. And that prudence is also reflected in the guide in the second half as well in the best case.

你是對的。這是一個謹慎的假設。如果你看看第一季度，我們有更多的知名度，數量實際上是增長的 3 個百分點，這將回到歷史平均水平。我們正在為今年做計劃，基於我們的謹慎，較低的銷量水平。這種審慎也反映在下半場的指南中以及最好的情況下。

Julian, let me comment on that also. In the first half, we're trying to take the backlog here in the first and second quarter. Typically, we do go down seasonally. And then we're -- given the progress we've made in the third and fourth quarter, we're trying to pick up some of that backlog in the first part of the year. Certainly, we get the leverage on that. We're -- on a year-on-year compare, we get much better leverage on that. And so I think -- and then it turns, in our field-based business, we're working to get back to our normal turn rate in our projects where with this supply chain disruption over the last 18 months, we've -- anywhere from a month to 2 in our ability to turn projects.

朱利安，讓我也對此發表評論。在上半年，我們試圖在第一季度和第二季度處理這裡的積壓工作。通常，我們確實會季節性下降。然後我們——鑑於我們在第三和第四季度取得的進展，我們正試圖在今年上半年解決一些積壓的問題。當然，我們可以利用這一點。我們——與去年同期相比，我們在這方面得到了更好的利用。所以我認為 - 然後它轉向，在我們基於現場的業務中，我們正在努力恢復我們項目的正常周轉率，在過去 18 個月中，由於供應鏈中斷，我們已經 -在我們轉向項目的能力中，從一個月到 2 個月不等。

So we see that improving during the course of the year. So you'll see some acceleration of that in the first half as well as our units with our recovery of our product-based businesses. And so I think that's -- some of those -- those are some of the fundamentals that are playing out in the numbers.

因此，我們看到這一年有所改善。因此，隨著我們基於產品的業務的複蘇，您會在上半年以及我們的部門看到一些加速。所以我認為這是 - 其中一些 - 這些是數字中正在發揮作用的一些基本面。

That's very helpful. And then maybe a more sort of fiddly financial question. And going back to a question earlier about below-the-line items. I think one thing that maybe people underestimated was the financing charges in '23. So you're guiding those at about $300 million. Q4 was about $60 million. So is that step up more just kind of variable interest rates flowing through? Is anything assumed around the gross debt? And just wondered if there's any kind of pension impact in the P&L in 2023 year-on-year?

這很有幫助。然後可能是一個更棘手的財務問題。回到之前關於線下項目的問題。我認為人們可能低估的一件事是 23 年的融資費用。所以你指導那些大約 3 億美元。第四季度約為 6000 萬美元。那麼，這是否只是一種流動的可變利率？是否對總債務進行了任何假設？只是想知道 2023 年的 P&L 同比是否有任何形式的養老金影響？

You are right about all of those. So in terms of interest, that's the by-product of the interest rate rising. We are not factoring any significant increase in the level of debt and pension income is indeed going to decline. That's the assumption.

你對所有這些都是正確的。所以就利息而言，這是利率上升的副產品。我們沒有考慮債務水平的任何顯著增加，養老金收入確實會下降。這是假設。

Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

So order momentum, clearly pretty strong through the fiscal fourth quarter. What's the outlook here on orders into '23? At what point should we expect this to moderate, just given the backlog and stabilizing, I think even potentially shortening lead times?

因此，整個第四財季的訂單勢頭顯然相當強勁。 23 年的訂單前景如何？考慮到積壓和穩定，我認為甚至有可能縮短交貨時間，我們應該在什麼時候預期這種情況會緩和？

Well, I'd say -- I'll take that. I'd say the pipelines that we're currently working on, both in direct and indirect continue to be strong. We continue to convert at the rates that we've been here in the second half of this year. We're actually projecting a very strong Q1 with orders. And so we're watching this closely. The one area that we'll watch is in the residential space, given that we think we're at the peak of the market now and what is going to play out there. Now for us, it's because we've been constrained with our capacity. And with the supply chain disruptions, we have not been able to convert at the rate that we could if we had the capacity. And so now on a go-forward basis with our recovery, we'll be able to take on more orders there with the new product that we're launching. And so net-net, obviously, we're watching it closely. But I think we see -- we still see good momentum across the businesses.

好吧，我會說——我會接受的。我想說我們目前正在研究的管道，無論是直接的還是間接的，都將繼續保持強勁。我們繼續以今年下半年的速度轉換。我們實際上預測第一季度的訂單非常強勁。所以我們正在密切關注這一點。我們將關注的一個領域是住宅空間，因為我們認為我們現在正處於市場的頂峰，並且那裡將會發生什麼。現在對我們來說，這是因為我們的能力受到了限制。由於供應鏈中斷，如果我們有能力的話，我們無法以我們可以達到的速度進行轉換。因此，現在在我們恢復的基礎上，我們將能夠通過我們推出的新產品在那裡接受更多訂單。因此，很明顯，我們正在密切關注它。但我認為我們看到 - 我們仍然看到整個企業的良好勢頭。

And then for my follow-up, I wanted to ask on service. And just if there's anything you could provide around pricing on the service side just so we can kind of get a feel for what type of market share benefits we're seeing from the digital initiatives.

然後對於我的後續行動，我想詢問服務。如果您可以提供有關服務端定價的任何信息，那麼我們就可以了解我們從數字計劃中看到的市場份額收益類型。

Yes. We have been very disciplined with pricing on services and not only with the traditional more of the mechanical services. But as you know, we've been enhancing our services with OpenBlue and with connectivity and new software applications. And so that's where you start to get a higher mix of service as we add on those capabilities. Overall, we've been able to more than offset the cost as we have across now all of the segments. And so I think on a go-forward basis, as we get a higher mix of connectivity, higher mix of software services, we'll start to see a real accretion on service margin rate. But we've -- obviously, while we've been expanding, we've been very disciplined on the pricing that we're getting for the value proposition that we're providing to our customers.

是的。我們對服務定價非常嚴格，而不僅僅是傳統的機械服務。但如您所知，我們一直在通過 OpenBlue 以及連接性和新的軟件應用程序來增強我們的服務。因此，當我們添加這些功能時，您就可以開始獲得更高的服務組合。總的來說，我們已經能夠抵消我們現在所有細分市場的成本。因此，我認為在前進的基礎上，隨著我們獲得更高的連接組合、更高的軟件服務組合，我們將開始看到服務利潤率的真正增長。但是我們 - 顯然，在我們一直在擴張的同時，我們對我們為客戶提供的價值主張所獲得的定價非常嚴格。

Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

A couple of small nits here. Is the margin structure on heat pumps at scale kind of comparable to the average of the other product lines? Or is it a tad better?

這裡有幾個小尼特。規模熱泵的利潤率結構是否與其他產品線的平均水平相當？還是好一點？

Yes. So when you look -- you got to look at the mix of heat pumps, Scott. We're about -- of our HVAC portfolio, we're about 50% heat pumps and that spans pretty much all of the platforms. Now as we're creating these new value propositions around decarbonization and electrification of these units, certainly, there's a pickup in margin because there's a higher demand as we're launching these new products. And so that mix will continue to improve with the new products that are being launched. We've seen good strength in our Industrial Refrigeration business. Even our Hitachi business has a high mix of heat pumps, and we're putting those heat pumps. We're seeing good growth in Europe as well as across the globe, actually, but a big pickup in Europe. And so as we're making the investments and the demand signals are increasing because of decarbonization, sustainability and the value proposition that these bring where we're getting incremental margins as a result.

是的。所以當你看 - 你必須看看熱泵的組合，斯科特。我們大約 - 在我們的 HVAC 產品組合中，我們大約有 50% 的熱泵，並且幾乎涵蓋了所有平台。現在，當我們圍繞這些裝置的脫碳和電氣化創造這些新的價值主張時，當然，利潤率會有所提高，因為隨著我們推出這些新產品，需求會更高。因此，隨著新產品的推出，這種組合將繼續得到改善。我們的工業製冷業務表現強勁。甚至我們的日立業務也有大量的熱泵，我們正在部署這些熱泵。實際上，我們看到歐洲乃至全球都出現了良好的增長，但歐洲出現了大幅回升。因此，當我們進行投資時，由於脫碳、可持續性和這些帶來的價值主張，需求信號正在增加，因此我們獲得了增量利潤。

Okay. Helpful. And then just a follow-up on the prior question on price because you weren't explicit and perhaps that's on purpose. But if the average -- company average is 9% price or the guide is 10%, will service -- will the service and install side be close to that average, you think, in 2023?

好的。有幫助。然後只是對先前關於價格的問題進行跟進，因為你沒有明確說明，也許這是故意的。但是，如果平均價格——公司平均價格是 9% 或指南是 10%，服務——服務和安裝方面是否會接近該平均水平，你認為，在 2023 年？

No. When you look at our pricing across the segments, we've been -- obviously, our book-and-build business and Global Products, we've been very aggressive, Scott, in making sure that we're recovering. With shorter cycles, we've recovered all of the costs through price and we're going to get back to the margins where we were previous to the ramp-up of inflation. On the field-based businesses within install and services, we have -- with the project-based business, as you know, we -- when we -- you go back 2 years ago when we were projecting cost, we were under costing projects because we didn't factor in the level of inflation that was experienced. Now that all was fixed a year ago. And that's been -- as you see now, the mix coming through the field project-based business, is very strong, right, with the pricing that was put in place as a result of now taking into account the -- all of the costs and even some of the disruption costs that we're experiencing. So the project-based businesses are very high, recovering the margin that previously we were short on.

不。當你查看我們各個細分市場的定價時，我們一直 - 顯然，我們的預訂和建造業務和全球產品，我們一直非常積極，斯科特，以確保我們正在復蘇。隨著更短的周期，我們已經通過價格收回了所有成本，我們將回到通貨膨脹上升之前的利潤率。關於安裝和服務中基於現場的業務，我們有——對於基於項目的業務，正如你所知，我們——當我們——回到 2 年前，當我們預測成本時，我們正在對項目進行成本核算因為我們沒有考慮通貨膨脹水平。現在一切都在一年前修好了。這一直是——正如你現在所看到的，通過基於現場項目的業務產生的組合非常強大，正確的，由於現在考慮到所有成本而製定的定價甚至我們正在經歷的一些中斷成本。因此，基於項目的業務非常高，恢復了我們之前短缺的利潤率。

On the service-based business, it's lower because we maintain the value proposition, and we haven't seen the amount of inflation that comes through the mix of our services that we provide. And so -- but again, we're offsetting cost. And then with the value proposition that we bring with OpenBlue with the digital offerings, we then accrete margin in addition to that with those value propositions, Scott. So it's lower than the 9% of just pure price/cost. But now we're going to get a higher mix because of the additive services.

在基於服務的業務中，它較低是因為我們保持了價值主張，而且我們還沒有看到我們提供的服務組合帶來的通貨膨脹量。所以——但同樣，我們正在抵消成本。然後，我們通過 OpenBlue 和數字產品帶來的價值主張，除了這些價值主張之外，我們還增加了利潤，斯科特。所以它低於純價格/成本的 9%。但現在由於附加服務，我們將獲得更高的組合。

Yes, that color is super helpful. Best of luck in '23. I'll pass it on.

是的，那個顏色超級有用。祝你在 23 年好運。我會傳下去的。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

So I'd like to start on supply chain. Once again, I think, Olivier, you mentioned that supply chain destructions were roughly $50 million this quarter. I think they were roughly $65 million last quarter. So on the margin [I think that it's] a little bit better. But I'm just curious, are you seeing this -- Is this still a labor issue? Is this a component issue? Like where -- what have you seen get better? And where are you still seeing constraints?

所以我想從供應鏈開始。再次，我想，Olivier，你提到本季度供應鏈損失約為 5000 萬美元。我認為他們上個季度大約是 6500 萬美元。所以在邊際上 [我認為它] 好一點。但我很好奇，你看到了嗎——這仍然是勞工問題嗎？這是組件問題嗎？比如在哪裡——你看到什麼變得更好了？您仍然在哪裡看到限制？

Yes, Joe, I'll take that. We've done incredible work over the last 18 months when this all got turned upside down because of lead times and all of the critical components being extended and more than double the lead times is really what started the disruption. And as a result of that, we've done a lot of good work around how do we commonize all of our components and ultimately then get aligned with our strategic suppliers and getting the volumes that we need not only short term, but supporting the growth going forward. And we've done that pretty much across all of our commodities. And obviously, the one that initially impacted us was the microchips and semiconductor materials, and we're fully lined out on that now in a good recovery position as we go forward.

是的，喬，我會接受的。在過去的 18 個月裡，我們做了令人難以置信的工作，但由於交貨時間和所有關鍵組件的延長，這一切都發生了翻天覆地的變化，而交貨時間的兩倍多才是真正開始中斷的原因。因此，我們圍繞如何通用我們所有的組件並最終與我們的戰略供應商保持一致並獲得我們不僅需要短期而且支持增長的數量做了大量的工作往前走。我們幾乎在所有商品中都這樣做了。顯然，最初影響我們的是微芯片和半導體材料，我們在前進的過程中現在處於良好的恢復狀態。

And so we are seeing, on a run rate basis, good improvement as we're heading into Q1. And so as we've been, we've been very proactive. We've been -- I would say now, as we look at our run rates of being able to reduce our backlog, we're now getting suppliers aligned and getting firm commitments that we can meet these run rates to ultimately bring this backlog down and achieve the growth that we're positioned to achieve in 2023.

因此，在我們進入第一季度時，我們看到在運行率的基礎上有很好的改善。因此，正如我們一直以來，我們一直非常積極主動。我們一直 - 我現在要說的是，當我們查看能夠減少積壓的運行率時，我們現在正在讓供應商保持一致並獲得堅定的承諾，我們可以滿足這些運行率以最終減少積壓並實現我們計劃在 2023 年實現的增長。

Our supply chain team has done a great job. Our manufacturing sites have been keeping production going while we're continuing this recovery of materials. And we went from $65 million in the third quarter to $50 million in the fourth. We expect that to be reduced again in the first quarter. But we do -- this is -- we've got everyone lined out to a recovery rate here for second quarter, so that as we position for third and fourth, which is our seasonal high quarters, we're going to be well positioned not only to have recovered our backlog, but now to be positioned with lead times that are very competitive in our ability to be able to take on additional volume in the second half of the year.

我們的供應鏈團隊做得很好。在我們繼續進行材料回收的同時，我們的生產基地一直在保持生產。我們從第三季度的 6500 萬美元增加到第四季度的 5000 萬美元。我們預計第一季度將再次減少。但是我們確實 - 這是 - 我們已經讓每個人都在這裡排好第二季度的複蘇率，所以當我們為第三和第四季度定位時，這是我們的季節性高季度，我們將處於有利位置不僅恢復了我們的積壓訂單，而且現在的交貨時間非常有競爭力，我們能夠在今年下半年承擔額外的數量。

And that's what we're positioned to do. So even though we have a little bit of headwind still with disruption, we've been pricing that disruption in our go-forward pricing. And then with the offsetting some of the headwinds is the additional COGS and SG&A work that we're doing to lean out the company and offset any additional headwinds that we might achieve. But overall, I would tell you from where we are from 6 months ago to where we are today, we're in a much different spot.

這就是我們準備要做的。因此，儘管我們在中斷方面仍然存在一些不利因素，但我們一直在為我們的未來定價中的中斷定價。然後抵消一些不利因素是我們正在做的額外的 COGS 和 SG&A 工作，以精簡公司並抵消我們可能實現的任何額外不利因素。但總的來說，我會告訴你我們從 6 個月前到現在所處的位置，我們處於一個截然不同的位置。

Got it, George. That's super helpful. And then I guess maybe just one other question on the margin -- or maybe not the margin, but the 2023 bridge. And so as you kind of think through it, I think we were originally expecting $260 million in costout. It sounds like price/cost from a dollar perspective should be positive. Are there any other key items to really think through as we're thinking through like that's what the incrementals should look like in 2023 versus 2022. I recognize that you guys have a low volume expectation. But are those the kind of key items? Or is there anything else that you would like to call out as we try to look at just like the adjusted EBITA segment?

知道了，喬治。這非常有幫助。然後我想也許只是邊緣的另一個問題——或者可能不是邊緣，而是 2023 年的橋樑。所以當你仔細想想時，我認為我們最初預計的成本是 2.6 億美元。從美元的角度來看，價格/成本聽起來應該是積極的。在我們思考的過程中，是否還有任何其他關鍵項目需要真正思考，就像 2023 年與 2022 年的增量應該是什麼樣子一樣。我認識到你們的期望值很低。但這些是關鍵項目嗎？或者在我們嘗試查看調整後的 EBITA 部分時，您還有什麼想說的嗎？

No, you're right. If you look at the impact of the disruption on next year, we are modeling about 40 basis points, 4-0. And if you look at the incremental before -- including the disruptions, the incrementals, I expect that next year to be at about 33% net of disruptions. Excluding them, in other words, we should be at over 40%, Joe.

不，你是對的。如果你看看中斷對明年的影響，我們正在模擬大約 40 個基點，4-0。如果你看看之前的增量 - 包括中斷，增量，我預計明年的中斷淨額約為 33%。排除他們，換句話說，我們應該超過 40%，喬。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Just want to follow up on that supply chain. Just on the kind of supply chain easing and backlog conversion. During the seasonally slower period, George, like you mentioned, first quarter, second quarter, how much do you think you were able to sort of pull in as a function of, "hey, maybe demand normally in these quarters wouldn't be this high, but we have extra backlog and they'll take it whenever they can get it." There's some sort of buffer in first quarter, especially that we should be aware of that's maybe kind of backlog-driven or supply chain normalization driven?

只想跟進那個供應鏈。就那種供應鏈寬鬆和積壓轉換。在季節性較慢的時期，喬治，就像你提到的，第一季度，第二季度，你認為你能夠在某種程度上拉動多少，“嘿，也許這些季度的需求通常不會是這個高，但我們有額外的積壓工作，他們會在能拿到的時候接受。”第一季度有某種緩衝，特別是我們應該意識到這可能是積壓驅動或供應鏈正常化驅動？

Yes. So when we look at backlog and we look at our run rate, we're pretty well positioned here through the first quarter because of our backlog and the run rates that we're achieving across each one of these product businesses, we're actually trying to -- on these markets that are unconstrained, meaning that there's even more growth that we can go after if we can commit cycle times that are lower. We're actually doing that to fill in additional volume later in the year. And so what we're doing is, in the first quarter, you do have less days but we're targeting to try to maintain our run rates across all of our sites at the same level that we had in the fourth quarter. And so to your point, does that give us an ability to be able to not only achieve the -- it gives us good ability to achieve the forecast we've made. And then as we track that in Q2, we believe that, that will continue. So at this stage, we feel good about where we are and we do see continued improvement as we get through the first half of the year.

是的。因此，當我們查看積壓訂單並查看我們的運行率時，由於我們的積壓訂單和我們在每個產品業務中實現的運行率，我們在第一季度處於非常有利的位置，我們實際上試圖 - 在這些不受約束的市場上，這意味著如果我們能夠承諾更短的周期時間，我們可以追求更多的增長。我們實際上這樣做是為了在今年晚些時候填補額外的數量。因此，我們正在做的是，在第一季度，您的工作時間確實減少了，但我們的目標是努力將我們所有站點的運行率保持在與第四季度相同的水平。因此，就您的觀點而言，這是否使我們能夠不僅能夠實現 - 它使我們能夠很好地實現我們所做的預測。然後，當我們在第二季度跟踪這一點時，我們相信這將繼續下去。因此，在這個階段，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意，並且我們確實看到在今年上半年持續改進。

Okay. Got it. And then on the price in revenue versus price in orders, I know that was sort of a big talking point last quarter, Olivier. Just getting that sequential price or higher uptick. What was that phenomenon like this quarter, i.e., are you still getting more price in the order book than that is coming out of the backlog and shipping and revenue today?

好的。知道了。然後關於收入價格與訂單價格的關係，我知道這是上個季度的一個重要話題，奧利維爾。只是得到那個連續的價格或更高的漲幅。這個季度的現像是什麼，即您在訂單簿中獲得的價格是否仍然高於今天積壓、運輸和收入的價格？

In the order book, the level of pricing has increased in Q4 relative to Q3 for our field business. The level of orders and price into it is about 1.5 points higher than it was in Q3. So we're in more than the mid-teens pricing in orders. So strong pricing based upon the strength of our value proposition, I would say, Josh.

在訂單簿中，我們現場業務的定價水平在第四季度相對於第三季度有所提高。訂單和價格水平比第三季度高出約 1.5 個百分點。所以我們在訂單中的價格超過了十幾歲。如此強大的定價基於我們價值主張的力量，我會說，喬希。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Deane Dray。

I was hoping to get some more context on the free cash flow guide for '23, the 80% to 90%. Are you assuming any drawdown on working capital as the supply chain normalizes? Or is that a potential upside to the free cash flow target?

我希望獲得更多關於 23 年自由現金流指南的背景信息，即 80% 到 90%。隨著供應鏈正常化，您是否假設營運資金會減少？或者這是自由現金流目標的潛在上行空間？

So our guide is 80% to 90%. There are 2 elements into the (technical difficulty)

所以我們的指南是80%到90%。有2個要素進入（技術難度）

(technical Difficulties - Please refer to the preliminary transcript that will be posted shortly.]

（技術難點 - 請參考即將發布的初步成績單。]