Huntsman Corp (HUN) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Huntsman Corporation first-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加亨斯邁集團 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Ivan Marcuse, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係和企業發展副總裁 Ivan Marcuse 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Melissa, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Huntsman's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining us on the call today are Peter Huntsman, Chairman, CEO and President; and Phil Lister, Executive Vice President and CFO. Yesterday, May 1, 2025, we released our earnings for the first quarter of 2025 via press release and posted it to our website, huntsman.com. We also posted a set of slides and detailed commentary discussing the first quarter of 2025 on our website.

謝謝你，梅麗莎，大家早安。歡迎參加亨斯邁 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有董事長、執行長兼總裁彼得‧亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman) 和執行副總裁兼財務長菲爾‧利斯特 (Phil Lister)。昨天，也就是2025年5月1日，我們透過新聞稿發布了2025年第一季的收益，並將其發佈在我們的網站huntsman.com上。我們也在網站上發布了一系列關於2025年第一季業績的幻燈片和詳細評論。

Peter Huntsman will provide some opening comments shortly, and we will then move to a question-and-answer session for the remainder of the call. During the call, let me remind you that we may make statements about our projections or expectations for the future. All such statements are forward-looking statements, and while they reflect our current expectations, they involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance.

彼得·亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman) 很快就會發表一些開場白，然後我們將進入問答環節，進行剩餘的通話。在通話期間，請容許我提醒您，我們可能會對未來的預測或期望做出陳述。所有此類聲明均為前瞻性聲明，雖然它們反映了我們當前的預期，但它們涉及風險和不確定性，並且不能保證未來的表現。

You should review our filings with the SEC for more information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections or expectations. We do not plan on publicly updating or revising any forward-looking statements during the quarter.

您應該查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與這些預測或預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。我們不打算在本季公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明。

We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss and free cash flow. You can find reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, which has been posted to our website at huntsman.com.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入或虧損和自由現金流。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表，該報告已發佈在我們的網站 huntsman.com 上。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter Huntsman.

現在我將把電話轉給彼得‧亨茨曼。

Ivan, thank you very much. Just over two months ago, at our last earnings call, I started my comments by explaining why we did not give yearly guidance but rather focused on quarterly guidance. And that was just before the first week of April when Liberation Day liberated the New York Stock Exchange with some $3 trillion of value before reciprocal tariffs, 90-day positives, and 500%-plus tariff rates were put on most goods flowing between the world's two largest and interdependent economic systems, along with varying degrees of tariffs on just about every trade flow in the world.

伊万，非常感謝。就在兩個多月前，在我們上次的收益電話會議上，我開始解釋為什麼我們沒有提供年度指導，而是專注於季度指導。而這發生在四月第一週之前，這一天是“解放日”，紐約證券交易所解放了，市值約 3 兆美元。隨後，世界上兩個最大、相互依存的經濟體系之間流通的大多數商品被徵收互惠關稅、90 天優惠政策和 500% 以上的關稅，世界上幾乎所有貿易流通都被徵收不同程度的關稅。

Today, I'm not sure if we can tell you what's going to be happening between now and the end of the week in either the macro economy or our own petrochemical industry. I would assume that most CEOs who have already reported their numbers, if they were to report again today, would be changing their outlook. I want to see if we can take and make some sense as far as what we see is happening today and some of the longer-term implications for Huntsman that we see as of today.

今天，我不確定我們是否可以告訴您從現在到本週末宏觀經濟或我們自己的石化行業將會發生什麼。我認為，大多數已經報告過數據的執行長如果今天再次報告的話，都會改變他們的觀點。我想看看我們是否能夠理解並理解今天所發生的事情以及我們今天所看到的對亨斯邁的一些長期影響。

Much of what we are seeing in our supply chains is a literal disconnect between orders and downstream demand. We see build rates for cars dropped low single-digit percentages. And by the time the supply chains move through OEMs and down to us, we are seeing double-digit drops in some order patterns.

我們在供應鏈中看到的大部分情況是訂單和下游需求之間確實存在脫節。我們發現汽車製造率下降了個位數百分比。當供應鏈透過原始設備製造商 (OEM) 轉移到我們這裡時，我們發現某些訂單模式出現了兩位數的下降。

It is not unlike what happens when someone taps the brakes on a fast-moving freeway and the car behind them applies greater pressure. Three or four cars further back, cars are literally skidding to a halt.

這與高速公路上快速行駛時某人踩剎車而後面的車輛施加更大力度的情況類似。後面三、四輛車都滑倒停了下來。

Now I do not see vehicle production, housing materials, airplanes, and power grid components dropping by double-digit margins. However, I am seeing in the past few weeks suppliers panic and in a world of great and changing uncertainties, lowering inventories, preserving working capital, and stopping supply chains, especially those moving overseas.

現在我沒有看到汽車產量、房屋材料、飛機和電網組件出現兩位數的下降。然而，過去幾週我看到供應商感到恐慌，在一個充滿巨大不確定性和變化的世界裡，他們降低庫存，保留營運資金，並停止供應鏈，特別是那些轉移到海外的供應鏈。

Will these conditions remain permanent? I think that is very highly unlikely. I would see a scenario not unlike 2020, when supply chains and inventories froze and the world stood in the state of paralysis as consumers, manufacturers, and suppliers try to make sense of the short term.

這些情況會一直持續下去嗎？我認為這種可能性極小。我會看到一種與 2020 年類似的情景，當時供應鏈和庫存凍結，世界處於癱瘓狀態，消費者、製造商和供應商試圖理解短期情況。

I see much, if not all, of the short-term supply and demand issues driven largely by the unknown and uncertain conditions likely being resolved in the next few months as trade deals get done, alternate supply lines and sources emerge and the dust from Liberation Day finally settles.

我認為，大部分（如果不是全部的話）短期供需問題主要由未知和不確定的條件所驅動，隨著貿易協議的達成、替代供應線和來源的出現以及解放日的塵埃最終落定，這些問題很可能在未來幾個月內得到解決。

Other aspects of this will be longer lasting. North American MDI tariffs is a good example. This past year, nearly 400,000 tons were imported into the United States and the Americas market with about 75% of that coming from China. This represents between 20% and 25% of the total domestic demand for the entire year. Just in the month of January of this year, more than twice the amount of MDI that was imported a year ago was imported into the United States.

這方面的其他方面將會持續更長時間。北美MDI關稅就是一個很好的例子。去年，美國和美洲市場進口了近40萬噸，其中約75%來自中國。這佔全年國內總需求的20%至25%。光是今年1月份，美國進口的MDI數量就比去年同期增加了一倍多。

By the end of the quarter, in March, imports had dropped by 60% into the Americas and greater than 75% from China. And it appears that this drop will continue into the second quarter as only 1 kiloton of MDI from China came into the Americas in the first week of April. These tariffs seemingly are larger, longer term in nature, and I believe may have a greater impact on the Americas.

截至本季末，即 3 月份，美洲的進口量下降了 60%，來自中國的進口量下降了 75% 以上。而看起來這種下降趨勢將持續到第二季​​度，因為 4 月第一周只有 1 千噸來自中國的 MDI 進入美洲。這些關稅似乎規模更大、性質更長遠，而且我認為可能會對美洲產生更大的影響。

Huntsman produces virtually all of our Americas material in North America. We're in an ideal location to benefit from this. More specifically, during the latter part of the first quarter of this year, as shipments from China were canceled, there seem to be an oversupply of MDI on the Asian markets. Chinese MDI prices fell as did raw materials. However, in the past week, these prices have stabilized and have actually recovered by 10%.

亨斯邁幾乎所有的美洲材料都是在北美生產的。我們處於一個理想的位置，可以從中受益。更具體地說，今年第一季後半段，由於來自中國的出貨被取消，亞洲市場上的MDI似乎出現供應過剩的情況。中國MDI價格隨原物料價格下跌。然而，過去一周，這些價格已經穩定下來，實際上已經回升了10%。

Again, as we are well situated in our Chinese business as all of our MDI supply is domestically produced with an excellent team of local associates that operate this business. Again, how long will this last? No one knows. But orders seems to slowly be coming about in China and the Americas market. Europe, on the other hand, is still trying to figure out if they have or even want an industrial policy. More to come on that one, no doubt.

再次，由於我們在中國業務中處於有利地位，因為我們所有的 MDI 供應都是在國內生產的，並且擁有優秀的當地合作團隊來運營這項業務。再說了，這會持續多久？沒人知道。但中國和美洲市場的訂單似乎正在慢慢出現。另一方面，歐洲仍在試圖弄清楚他們是否有或是否想要一項產業政策。毫無疑問，關於這一點，還會有更多內容。

I do not see the impact of tariffs having a direct material impact on our Performance Products and Advanced Materials divisions. I can't clearly see what impact this will have on our customers' end markets such as power and aerospace. But things seem to be moving towards a slightly more confident place than they were just a week ago.

我認為關稅不會對我們的性能產品和先進材料部門產生直接的實質影響。我不清楚這會對我們客戶的終端市場（如電力和航空航太）產生什麼影響。但與一週前相比，情況似乎正朝著更有自信的方向發展。

This past quarter, I told you that I thought we were seeing the bottom of MDI pricing, or better put, margins as we had seen announced price increases across the US, EU, and China. I continue to believe this, though there may be a bit choppiness in the numbers. The MDI markets may well be seeing better margin expansion from falling raw material prices than from rising MDI prices.

上個季度，我告訴過大家，我認為我們已經看到了 MDI 價格的底部，或者更確切地說，利潤率已經觸底，因為我們已經看到美國、歐盟和中國宣布漲價。我仍然相信這一點，儘管數字可能有點不穩定。原物料價格下跌對 MDI 市場的利潤成長可能比 MDI 價格上漲對 MDI 市場的利潤成長更為有利。

However, volumes will be of greatest importance. The present market uncertainties do not provide us or our customers confidence for longer-term inventory build and volume increase. We continue to be frustrated by the lack of a clear and realistic energy in European-wide industrial policy, which is needed to encourage investment by us and others in Europe.

然而，數量才是最重要的。目前市場的不確定性使得我們或我們的客戶對長期庫存建設和銷售增加缺乏信心。我們仍然對歐洲範圍內的工業政策缺乏明確和現實的活力感到沮喪，而這種活力對於鼓勵我們和歐洲其他國家的投資是十分必要的。

We will continue to aggressively look at our cost and organizational structure and calibrate that to a shrinking industrial base as we see more companies struggling under the burden of high energy costs, taxes ,and regulation. In short, we will not be waiting for the market to turn in our favor, and we'll continue to take the steps necessary to have a value-creating business in Europe.

隨著我們看到越來越多的公司在高昂的能源成本、稅收和監管的負擔下苦苦掙扎，我們將繼續積極審視我們的成本和組織結構，並根據不斷萎縮的工業基礎進行調整。簡而言之，我們不會等待市場對我們有利，我們將繼續採取必要措施，在歐洲開展創造價值的業務。

We also continue to look for opportunities around the world that may provide a chance to increase our product footprint. While we are careful to protect our balance sheet, we will continue to assess our assets and explore possible opportunities in the marketplace to create shareholder value faster than just waiting for a market recovery.

我們也正在繼續尋找世界各地的機會，以擴大我們的產品影響力。在我們小心保護資產負債表的同時，我們將繼續評估我們的資產並探索市場上的可能機會，以更快地創造股東價值，而不僅僅是等待市場復甦。

In short, we are focused on capitalizing on the short-term changes and volatility, aligning our cost to longer-term market realities and exploring various options to enhance our portfolio and create greater shareholder value.

簡而言之，我們專注於利用短期變化和波動，使我們的成本與長期市場現實保持一致，並探索各種選擇以增強我們的投資組合併創造更大的股東價值。

With that, operator, we'll open the line up for any questions.

接線員，這樣我們就可以開始回答任何問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員指示）Kevin McCarthy，Vertical Research Partners。

Peter, I appreciate your description regarding what I would call a bullwhip effect. It strikes me that one of the things that might be a little bit different today is inventory levels are generally leaner than they were a few years ago. So I was wondering if you could speak to that. Where are you seeing the most pronounced bullwhip effect or volume reductions? And where do you think there might be pockets of inventory more elevated or leaner, would be my first question.

彼得，我很欣賞你對我所說的牛鞭效應的描述。令我印象深刻的是，今天可能略有不同的事情之一是庫存水平普遍比幾年前更低。所以我想知道您是否可以談談這個問題。您在哪裡看到最明顯的牛鞭效應或交易量減少？我的第一個問題是，您認為哪些地方的庫存可能更高或更精簡。

Yeah. Kevin, thank you very much. Excellent question because that really strikes at the heart of the here and the now. I mean if we are seeing a bullwhip effect, I will say that I'm not trying to contradict the guidance that we've given in the second quarter. As I sit here today and look at that guidance in the second quarter, I firmly believe in that.

是的。凱文，非常感謝。這個問題問得非常好，因為它確實觸及了當下的痛點。我的意思是，如果我們看到了牛鞭效應，我會說我並不是想反駁我們在第二季給出的指導。今天當我坐在這裡回顧第二季的業績指引時，我堅信這一點。

But by the end of the second quarter, we may well be seeing an inflow of orders that may have a material change on that outlook. Again, I think it's important that we give you the clearest view that we have as of today and what we're seeing today.

但到第二季末，我們很可能會看到訂單的流入，這可能會對前景產生重大變化。再次強調，我認為重要的是我們要向大家提供我們目前所掌握的最清晰的觀點以及我們今天所看到的情況。

But as I look at what I would say are order patterns versus reality, reality being how many cars are actually being built, how many cars are actually being sold. And there's no doubt that there is a low single-digit movement in the number of cars that are being produced. There are some builders that are slowing production down in Mexico, for example.

但當我審視訂單模式與現實時，我會發現現實是實際生產了多少輛汽車，實際上銷售了多少輛汽車。毫無疑問，汽車產量的變化幅度只有個位數。例如，一些建築商正在減緩墨西哥的生產。

But in the overall scheme of what we're seeing in the automotive industry, it's not more than just a few percentage points drop in production as we sit here today. We're seeing raw materials in some applications, not across the board, but in some applications drop as much as 15% to 20% downward just in the last week or two.

但從我們目前看到的汽車產業整體情況來看，產量下降不過是今天的幾個百分點。我們看到某些應用領域的原物料價格在過去一兩週內下降了 15% 至 20%，雖然不是全部，但在某些應用領域中，價格下降幅度高達 15% 至 20%。

Now again, how much of this is inventory fluctuation? How much of this is just setting something in place? But there is a massive disconnect as far as what's being ordered and what's being produced. I don't believe that there's a lot of inventory sitting in the auto supply chain. I would say the same thing applies to aerospace. I look at the number of planes that are being built versus a number of planes that are being delivered. Again, those are two completely different numbers.

那麼，其中有多少是庫存波動？這其中有多少只是在做一些設定？但就訂單和生產而言，存在著巨大的脫節。我不相信汽車供應鏈中存在大量庫存。我想說同樣的事情也適用於航空航天。我查看了正在建造的飛機數量與正在交付的飛機數量。再說一遍，這是兩個完全不同的數字。

And then the supply chain as far as how many fuselages, wings and so forth, tail sections, that are being built. This is one of the best end markets in our entire business is aerospace. You think with the customer base largely built on the back of two companies that have multiyear back orders, that you would see one of the most consistent and reliable supply chains in any of our end use markets.

然後是供應鏈，包括正在建造的機身、機翼、尾部等的數量。這是我們整個航空航太業務中最好的終端市場之一。您認為，由於客戶群主要建立在兩家擁有多年積壓訂單的公司之上，因此您會在我們的任何最終用途市場中看到最一致、最可靠的供應鏈之一。

So I think on a yearly basis, it all looks quite flat. On a quarterly basis, there's quite a bit of volatility. On a monthly basis, it's all over the place. And so as I look at the auto, as I look at aerospace, I would even say the same applies to the downstream construction materials. I look at the number of homes that are being built and the number of homes that are being sold, and I compare that with products that are going to various applications, whether it's installation or appliances and so forth, and you see much greater volatility.

所以我認為從年度來看，一切都顯得相當平穩。從季度來看，波動性相當大。按月計算，到處都是。因此，當我觀察汽車、航空航太時，我甚至會說同樣的情況也適用於下游的建築材料。我查看了正在建造的房屋數量和正在出售的房屋數量，並將其與用於各種應用的產品（無論是安裝還是設備等）進行比較，您會發現波動性要大得多。

So Kevin, I'm sorry, long-winded answer, but I think it probably gets [too hard] what a lot of people out there are really thinking. How do you match today's drop-off in demand with the reality of what's actually being consumed in the broader market? The simple fact doesn't matter.

所以凱文，很抱歉，我的回答太冗長了，但我認為這可能難以理解很多人真正在想什麼。您如何將當今需求的下降與更廣泛市場的實際消費情況相匹配？這個簡單的事實並不重要。

The only parallel I've seen in the last 15, 20-plus years is really 2020, when we saw a very, very rapid sudden drop-off in COVID and subsequently we saw, in your words, this bullwhip effect that came back in the latter part of 2020 and went all the way up to '21.

在過去 15 到 20 多年裡，我看到的唯一相似之處實際上是 2020 年，當時我們看到新冠疫情突然迅速下降，隨後，用你的話說，我們看到了牛鞭效應，這種效應在 2020 年下半年再次出現，並一直持續到 2021 年。

And then as a follow-up, would you have a guess as to how much the total company volume might have been down, if it was down, in the month of April, and how the order books are shaping up for May?

然後作為後續問題，您是否能猜測一下，如果 4 月份公司總銷量下降的話，會下降多少，以及 5 月份的訂單情況如何？

Yeah. I'd want to look a little bit more closely at that. I think when you'd be looking across the board at all of the businesses, January and February for us would have been -- what I would say, would be months that we're on target and were meeting expectations. We really saw a great deal of volatility around those orders in the month of March and going into April. And as I say, it's -- obviously, we're in the very early part of May.

是的。我想更仔細地看一下這一點。我認為，當你全面審視所有業務時，一月和二月對我們來說應該是——我想說，是我們實現目標並達到預期的月份。我們確實看到三月和四月這些訂單出現了很大的波動。正如我所說，顯然，我們現在正處於五月初。

Not a great deal of visibility right now. But it seems like the dust is gradually starting to settle. So a lot of metaphors in there without giving you exact numbers, and I don't have the exact numbers on the volume of the pricing. But as we look into the second quarter, our single largest variable in the second quarter is going to be around what actually happens with volumes, order pounds, and prices.

目前能見度還不是很高。但看起來塵埃正在逐漸落定。因此，這其中有很多比喻，但沒有給出確切的數字，而且我也沒有定價量的確切數字。但當我們展望第二季時，我們發現第二季最大的變數將是銷售量、訂單重量和價格的實際情況。

And I will just say that I'm not aware of any large customers that we have lost during this time period as well. I say that because I believe that what we're seeing is a lot of -- other people are probably seeing the same thing.

我只想說，我不知道我們在這段時間內是否失去了任何大客戶。我這樣說是因為我相信我們所看到的很多東西——其他人可能也看到了同樣的東西。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

花旗銀行的派崔克‧坎寧安 (Patrick Cunningham)。

The trade uncertainty is clearly overwhelming everything, but one of the goals is to increase US manufacturing and maybe you'll get some tailwinds for housing and infrastructure. How do you view the growth potential longer term if the policies work as intended? And how would you further reposition your asset footprint if we live in this protectionist world?

貿易不確定性顯然壓倒了一切，但目標之一是增加美國製造業，也許你會在住房和基礎設施方面獲得一些順風。如果保單能如預期發揮作用，您如何看待長期成長潛力？如果我們生活在這個保護主義的世界，您將如何進一步重新定位您的資產足跡？

Well, I'm not sure that as we look at our asset footprint I continue to see some vague question marks around Europe. But if you -- okay, I'm probably oversimplifying things. If you look at a more protectionist view in China and the more protectionist view in America, and China certainly started five, six years ago increasing their industrial capacity, domesticating their industrial capacity and so forth and becoming less reliant on imports, largely doing what the US is today.

嗯，我不確定當我們審視我們的資產足跡時，我是否仍然看到歐洲周圍的一些模糊問號。但如果你——好吧，我可能把事情過於簡單化了。如果你看一下中國和美國的保護主義觀點，你會發現，中國在五、六年前就已經開始提高其工業產能、實現工業產能國產化等等，減少對進口的依賴，這在很大程度上與美國今天的做法相同。

The vast majority of what we sell, the vast majority of where we make money is in domestically produced product both in North America and in Asia. So I don't see us having to change our footprint, if you will, manufacturing or otherwise, to try to calibrate around where things seemingly are going. Now again, that may have an impact on our downstream demand on some of our products and so forth.

我們銷售的絕大部分產品、我們賺錢的絕大部分都是北美和亞洲國內生產的產品。因此，我認為我們不必改變我們的足跡，無論是製造業還是其他方面，來嘗試調整事情的發展方向。這可能會再次對我們某些產品的下游需求等產生影響。

But I think that we're in a pretty good position ourselves. You did mention the construction markets. And I would think that the single biggest issue probably certainly longer term, even more so than tariffs, I think tariffs will recalibrate and we'll be able to work our way through tariffs.

但我認為我們自己的處境相當不錯。您確實提到了建築市場。我認為，從長遠來看，最大的問題可能是關稅，我認為關稅將會重新調整，我們將能夠解決關稅問題。

The single biggest impact that we see between now and the end of the year on our earnings would be an improvement and a pickup in the North American residential and commercial construction.

從現在到年底，我們看到的對我們收益的最大影響將是北美住宅和商業建築的改善和回升。

Understood. Very helpful. And could you provide an update on the spray foam business? Has this business seen a similar disconnect in downstream demand versus your orders? And do you expect any sort of further pressure on this market just given homebuilders are under pressure at this point?

明白了。非常有幫助。您能否提供有關噴塗泡沫業務的最新情況？該業務是否也曾出現類似的下游需求與訂單脫節的情況？鑑於目前房屋建築商面臨壓力，您是否預期該市場將面臨進一步的壓力？

Yeah. So bottom line is, as you think about the spray foam business, that's going to both be in new homes, which has slowed, and home remodeling, taking out a second mortgage or whatever and add a higher interest rate and remodeling your home. That industry has obviously slowed as well. So yeah, we would see that impact in both areas.

是的。因此，底線是，當你考慮噴塗泡沫業務時，它將既出現在新房中（這已經放緩），也出現在房屋改造、辦理第二筆抵押貸款或其他任何增加更高利率並改造房屋的領域。該行業顯然也已經放緩。是的，我們會在兩個領域看到這種影響。

And Patrick, you'll have seen that we announced the closure of our Boisbury, Canada facility for spray. We're consolidating everything down in Arlington in Texas, and that's just rightsizing our footprint to ensure we've got the cost base right.

派崔克，您可能已經看到，我們宣布關閉位於加拿大博伊斯伯里的噴霧工廠。我們正在德克薩斯州阿靈頓整合一切，這只是在調整我們的規模以確保我們擁有正確的成本基礎。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

Can you talk about pricing in MDI in North America? It seems that the major producers went out with meaningful price increases. What happened and what continues to happen?

能談談北美 MDI 的定價嗎？看來主要生產商都大幅提高了價格。發生了什麼事以及接下來還會發生什麼事？

Well, look, we are still out there pushing price increases and so forth. I'm not going to speak on behalf of our competitors. I'll let them speak for themselves and whatever decisions they're trying to make. Jeff, the objective of our price increases was to expand margins. And if we can do that by maintaining a price and being able to take advantage of falling raw material prices, we'll certainly do that.

嗯，你看，我們仍然在推動價格上漲等等。我不會代表我們的競爭對手發言。我會讓他們自己表達自己的想法並做出任何決定。傑夫，我們提高價格的目的是為了擴大利潤率。如果我們能夠透過維持價格並利用原物料價格下跌來做到這一點，我們肯定會這樣做。

I would say that I think that we are in a worse position today than we were two months ago when it comes to those prices being implemented due solely because of the lack of volume, the lack of demand that we're seeing in the market.

我想說的是，我認為我們今天的處境比兩個月前更糟糕，因為這些價格的實施只是因為我們在市場上看到的交易量不足、需求不足。

Conversely, I would expect that as you see tariffs fully in effect in North America, perhaps even in China, and as you see volumes recover to a more normalized area, you'll see an opportunity for those price increases to be more meaningfully implemented across the board.

相反，我預計，隨著關稅在北美甚至中國全面生效，隨著貿易量恢復到更正常的水平，您將看到這些價格上漲有機會在各個領域得到更有意義的實施。

Okay. And then for Phil, I think inventories went up $100 million roughly sequentially. Is that mostly because your demand was less than you expected and you need to move your operating rates down? And do you have any estimates for whether working capital will be a benefit or a [use] this year?

好的。對於菲爾來說，我認為庫存大約連續增加了 1 億美元。這主要是因為您的需求低於預期，所以您需要降低營運率嗎？您是否估計今年營運資金是收益還是用途？

Yeah. Jeff, it came in about where we expected. As a reminder, we've got a number of turnarounds around the world, particularly the large one that we had in Rotterdam, where we had to build for that. We've got some more minor ones during the second quarter in Geismar, in Caojing, China, as well as the turnaround at our Conroe, Texas facility. So I expect us to build. Those numbers will come down in the second quarter.

是的。傑夫，它達到了我們預期的水平。提醒一下，我們在世界各地都有過多次轉型，特別是在鹿特丹的大型轉型，我們必須為此進行建造。我們在第二季度在中國漕涇的蓋斯瑪工廠遇到了一些小問題，並且我們位於德克薩斯州康羅的工廠也出現了轉機。所以我希望我們能夠建造。這些數字將在第二季下降。

And you're right, there's some calibration there towards a lower or, let's call it, an uncertain demand environment. But we'll have our inventories back down at the end of the second quarter. For the full year, I think we articulated we still expect to have an improvement on our cash conversion cycle. We improved on that last year, and we expect a further improvement on that for this year in terms of whether it be a source or a use.

你說得對，那裡存在一些針對較低或不確定的需求環境的校準。但我們的庫存將在第二季末回落。對於全年而言，我認為我們明確表示我們仍然期望我們的現金轉換週期會有所改善。去年我們在這方面有所改進，我們期望今年無論是在來源還是用途方面都能取得進一步的改進。

Selfishly, I hope there's a use. I hope there's a booming economy by the fourth quarter, and fourth quarter activity is much higher in the fourth quarter this year versus the fourth-quarter last year. But our focus, honestly, is on what we can control and ensuring our cash conversion cycle is appropriately managed.

自私地說，我希望它有用。我希望第四季經濟能夠蓬勃發展，今年第四季的經濟活動將比去年第四季高出許多。但老實說，我們的重點是我們能夠控制的事情，並確保我們的現金轉換週期得到適當的管理。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特。

Good morning. I wanted to ask two things. First, on the trade balances for MDI. I mean, at least on the data that we have through February, it looks like there's been a tick up in Germany imports into the US. So as China backs out, do you see a scenario where Europe fills in that gap? Or do US assets move up much more to fill that?

早安.我想問兩件事。首先，關於MDI的貿易平衡。我的意思是，至少根據我們截至二月的數據，看起來德國對美國的進口量增加。那麼，隨著中國退出，您是否認為歐洲會填補這一空缺？或者美國資產會進一步上漲以填補這一缺口？

I don't know if that's internal transfers of a competitor or something else going on or something with the market. And then second, just with your US pricing where you have spread pass-throughs or benzene pass-throughs, how do those contracts renegotiate? What's your ability to increase those spreads separate from the price increases?

我不知道這是競爭對手的內部轉移還是其他原因，或是與市場有關。其次，僅就你們在美國的定價而言，你們已經進行了價差轉嫁或苯轉嫁，這些合約如何重新談判？除了價格上漲之外，您還有什麼能力來增加這些價差？

Yeah. On the first part of that question, yeah, I would think that if somebody is bringing in product from Europe today, I can't imagine why they would be doing that. I mean, as I look at our own manufacturing costs, we're in excess of $100-a-ton higher cost in Europe. And then on top of that, you have to pay what I think is a 6% to 8% duty or tariff. And then on top of that, you have to pay working capital, you have to pay transportation. So you're talking there probably of $400 to $500 a ton difference between Europe and the US.

是的。關於這個問題的第一部分，是的，我認為如果今天有人從歐洲進口產品，我無法想像他們為什麼會這樣做。我的意思是，當我看到我們自己的製造成本時，我們發現歐洲的製造成本每噸高出 100 美元以上。除此之外，你還必須支付我認為是 6% 到 8% 的關稅。除此之外，你還必須支付營運資金和運輸費用。所以你說的是歐洲和美國之間每噸的差價可能在 400 到 500 美元之間。

So if somebody's shipping product in from Europe into the US for economic benefit, I find it really tough to understand why somebody would be doing that, but short of an operating offset, and you've got contractual obligations that you have to meet on a take-or-pay or something. So no, I do not see Europe backfilling Asian material that otherwise would be coming to the US.

因此，如果有人為了經濟利益而將產品從歐洲運往美國，我很難理解為什麼有人會這樣做，但如果沒有營運補償，你就有合約義務，必須按照照付不議的方式履行。所以，我不認為歐洲會填補原本會流入美國的亞洲材料。

It has not been competitive to do that for at least the last three or four years. And I don't foresee in the future, given the energy costs and so forth in Europe, the freight costs and tariffs and so forth, I don't see how that could possibly make sense on a longer-term basis.

至少在過去三、四年裡，這樣做並不具競爭力。而考慮到歐洲的能源成本、運費和關稅等，我無法預見未來，我認為從長遠來看這不可能有任何意義。

Yeah. On our pass-through pricing, remind you that just under about 50% of our overall North American volume is on some form or another of pass-through. So I think it's kind of -- I'm not going to say it's standard in the industry, but there are some segments that have longer-term commitments to customers and so forth where they favor that and others that do not.

是的。關於我們的轉嫁定價，提醒您，我們北美整體銷售的約 50% 是透過某種形式的轉嫁實現的。所以我認為這有點——我不會說這是行業標準，但有些領域對客戶有長期承諾，他們喜歡這樣做，而其他領域則不喜歡。

Typically, those contracts, I'm not going to speak to all of them because they all vary contract to contract. But typically, you have anywhere from a three, six months, what I would call, a pit stop, where you can pull off on the contracts and you can readjust the portion of that contract that is not related to raw materials that I would call would be a margin expansion, or you can just choose to get out of the contract altogether.

通常，我不會談論所有這些合同，因為它們各不相同。但通常情況下，你會有三到六個月的時間，我稱之為“中途休息”，在此期間你可以完成合同，你可以重新調整合同中與原材料無關的部分，我稱之為利潤擴大，或者你也可以選擇完全退出合同。

But again, that's going to vary customer to customer, term to term. But you typically, every couple of months, you'll have a pit stop. So again, if you see a dollar drop in benzene that happened, let's hypothetically say today, I would say that you probably have anywhere from a 30- to 45-day time period of where your existing inventory is going to have to be worked through the system.

但同樣，這會因客戶和期限的不同而有所差異。但通常每隔幾個月你就會停下來休息一下。因此，如果您看到苯的價格下跌，假設是今天，我想說您可能需要 30 到 45 天的時間來處理現有庫存。

You've got benzene that if that price were to drop today -- you got Benzene that you bought yesterday, benzene that's on the water and shipment to your clients, you've got benzene in the form of nitrobenzene, crude MDI, finished inventory, all that's priced at a more expensive inventory.

如果今天苯的價格下跌，您昨天購買的苯、透過水路運輸並發往客戶的苯、硝基苯、粗 MDI、成品庫存等形式的苯，所有這些庫存的價格都會更高。

So the impact of that dollar cheaper benzene as of today is not going to be felt for some time. And then when it is, you'll instantaneously feel it on that 50%. Again, that's a much higher percentage than what you see in Europe or in Asia, in the US market. At 50%, you would feel that instantaneously.

因此，截至目前，苯價格下跌所帶來的影響在一段時間內還不會顯現。當它發生時，你會立即在那 50% 上感受到它。再一次，這個比例比歐洲、亞洲和美國市場的比例高得多。當達到 50% 時，您會立即感覺到這一點。

And then the other 50%, you would see that probably over a three to six, maybe in a very few contracts as much as long as a nine-month term contract in that. So that last 50% would be tailing off there. So again, I'd like to be able to say if you see a dollar drop today, you're going to see the benefit today.

而另外 50%，你會看到，可能在三到六個月內，也許在極少數合約中，最長可達九個月的定期合約。所以最後的 50% 將會逐漸減少。所以，我再說一遍，如果你今天看到美元下跌，你今天就會看到好處。

Conversely, when prices go up, we're not going to fully see the impact of that taking effect. And when prices go up and people are panicking so forth, we usually -- it gives us that amount of time inversely to be able to respond to the market and to be able to calibrate our production, our costs and so forth. So it works in the opposite when prices are going up.

相反，當價格上漲時，我們不會完全看到其影響。當價格上漲、人們陷入恐慌時，我們通常會有時間對市場做出反應，調整我們的生產、成本等等。因此，當價格上漲時，其作用則相反。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Peter, to continue with this line of questioning, can Chinese exporters shift to moving MDI to Canada and Mexico? And would your customers be able to ship their consumption to those two countries?

彼得，繼續這個問題，中國出口商是否可以轉向將 MDI 出口到加拿大和墨西哥？您的客戶能將他們的消費品運送到這兩個國家嗎？

Well, not if they become the 51st and 52nd state. Okay, I'm just kidding. No, that's -- look, there's obviously going to be -- there would be an advantage, I assume. Each of those countries have their own independent trade tariffs and so forth that are going to be put into place.

嗯，如果他們成為第 51 和第 52 州的話就不會了。好吧，我只是在開玩笑。不，那是——你看，顯然會有——我認為會有優勢。每個國家都有各自獨立的貿易關稅等即將實施。

There have been some recent rather public MDI consumers that have taken MDI-finished product in the form of building materials and other products, I don't want to get customer or company specific, that have brought that over the border and have been fined and under investigation for trying to avert duties that way.

最近有一些相當公開的 MDI 消費者將 MDI 成品以建築材料和其他產品的形式帶入美國，我不想具體說明是哪些客戶或公司，他們將這些產品帶過邊境，並因試圖通過這種方式逃避關稅而被罰款和接受調查。

So again, when you look at what you produce in Canada, you're going to have to be consuming that in Canada as well. You bring a finished product into the United States on every single application. But on most of the applications, you're going to have to be paying a duty on that proportion of MDI.

所以，當你看看你在加拿大生產什麼時，你也必須在加拿大消費它。每次申請時，您都需要將成品帶入美國。但在大多數申請中，您必須對該比例的 MDI 繳納關稅。

Makes sense. And I wanted to ask you about the dividend. Can you share anything about how the Board thinks on this topic? Is the dividend something you're really determined to keep at this level? Or is there a good argument to sderisk the balance sheet and adjust it since free cash flow has been weaker for a while?

有道理。我想問您有關股息的問題。您能否分享一下董事會對這個問題的看法？您是否真的決心將股息維持在這個水平？或者，由於自由現金流已經減弱了一段時間，是否有充分的理由降低資產負債表的風險並進行調整？

I think if you look in the past -- in our company's past all through COVID, and even through the economic recession going back 15 years ago, the dividend has been something that this company has always held to be something very close to sacred. We, as a management team, I mean, as we look beyond just the cash generation of the company itself, we look at the $75 million we've collected so far to date from Praxair legal settlement, from our SLIC dividend from other initiatives that we'll have between now and the end of the year.

我想，如果你回顧過去——在我們公司經歷的整個 COVID 時期，甚至 15 年前的經濟衰退時期，股息一直是這家公司視為近乎神聖的事情。作為管理團隊，我的意思是，當我們不僅僅關注公司本身的現金創造時，我們還會關注迄今為止從普萊克斯法律和解中獲得的 7500 萬美元，以及從現在到年底我們將從其他計劃中獲得的 SLIC 股息。

We feel very confident that we will continue to generate the amount of cash necessary, that we have a strong enough balance sheet and we certainly have confidence in the future as to where the company is going to maintain the dividend. So at this time, that certainly is not a question that we're grappling with.

我們非常有信心，我們將繼續產生必要的現金，我們擁有足夠強勁的資產負債表，並且我們對公司未來維持股息充滿信心。因此，目前這肯定不是我們正在努力解決的問題。

Yeah. I mean, we recognize yields are high right now, Aleksey. They always are in trough conditions. As Peter indicates, we've got $1.3 billion of liquidity. Our debt maturities are '29, '31 and '34. So we're managing the cash slide appropriately.

是的。我的意思是，我們認識到現在收益率很高，阿列克謝。他們總是處於低谷狀態。正如彼得所指出的，我們擁有 13 億美元的流動資金。我們的債務到期日為 29 年、31 年及 34 年。因此，我們正在適當地管理現金下滑。

Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

麥克·哈里森，海港研究夥伴。

Peter, along with all the tariff-related uncertainty, you guys had a turnaround going on at Rotterdam that, I think, bled into the second quarter, too. The unplanned outage at the maleic facility in Germany, it sounds like there was a fire at an automotive customer facility. Can you quantify the impact of those disruptions to EBITDA in Q1?

彼得，除了所有與關稅相關的不確定性之外，你們在鹿特丹的業績也出現了好轉，我認為，這也影響到了第二季。德國馬來酸工廠發生意外停電，聽起來像是汽車客戶工廠發生火災。您能量化這些中斷對第一季 EBITDA 的影響嗎？

And then Phil mentioned some more planned turnarounds for Q2. How much headwind is baked into the EBITDA guidance from those planned, I guess, disruptions or turnarounds?

然後菲爾提到了第二季的一些計劃轉變。我猜想，這些計劃中的中斷或轉變會為 EBITDA 指引帶來多大的阻力？

Yeah. I would say Rotterdam as we've guided and I think on our previous call, we talked about a $15 million hit in the first half, $5 million in the first quarter, $10 million in the second quarter. I think we continue to stand by that, though we are literally -- in the course of the next few days here, we are literally going through a startup of our lines as we speak.

是的。我想說的是，正如我們所指導的那樣，鹿特丹的情況也是如此，我想在我們之前的電話會議上，我們談到了上半年的損失為 1500 萬美元，第一季度的損失為 500 萬美元，第二季度的損失為 1000 萬美元。我認為我們會繼續堅持這一點，儘管我們實際上——在接下來的幾天裡，我們實際上正在啟動我們的生產線。

And equally as important is our lines aligns with our customers and suppliers who are also starting up their facilities. So Rotterdam is a particularly tricky one because we can only run as far and as fast as our customers do on this whole thing.

同樣重要的是，我們的生產線與正在啟動其設施的客戶和供應商保持一致。因此，鹿特丹站是一個特別棘手的站，因為我們在整個過程中只能跑得盡可能遠、跑得盡可能快。

As far as the fire is concerned, yeah, that's probably around a $3 million hit. Again, we didn't have anything to do with the fire, but it did impact some of the order flows coming from our Advanced Materials going into, I think, it's particularly into the EV applications.

就火災而言，是的，損失大概在 300 萬美元左右。再說一次，我們與火災沒有任何關係，但它確實影響了我們先進材料部門的一些訂單流，我認為，特別是電動車應用方面的訂單流。

Yeah. And on maleic, I think you're aware, Mike, that the margins are incredibly thin in European maleic given the demand that we see there and given imports into China. So that's a negligible impact. It does have a large impact when you look at year-on-year growth numbers where it looks quite dramatic. But PP was down 16%, but once you strip out the European side of the business, it was down more like 3% to 4% overall.

是的。關於馬來酸，麥克，我想你知道，考慮到歐洲的需求以及中國的進口量，歐洲馬來酸的利潤非常薄。所以這影響微不足道。當你查看同比增長數字時，它確實會產生很大的影響，看起來相當引人注目。但 PP 下降了 16%，但一旦剔除歐洲業務，其整體下降幅度更像是 3% 至 4%。

Yeah. Virtually all that was European on a single site. Yeah.

是的。幾乎所有東西都是歐洲的，都集中在一個地方。是的。

All right. And then the Geismar and China, and I think you mentioned another facility for Q2, are those pretty modest in terms of impact for Q2?

好的。然後是 Geismar 和中國，我想您提到了第二季的另一個設施，這些對第二季的影響是否相當小？

Yeah, relatively small, Mike. You should focus on the Rotterdam and the Rotterdam impact for us.

是的，相對較小，麥克。您應該關注鹿特丹以及鹿特丹對我們的影響。

Yeah. The impact on the others will largely be around the movement in stock and inventory, which Phil already addressed.

是的。對其他人的影響主要在於庫存和存貨的流動，菲爾已經提到了這一點。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥可·西森。

Peter, some of the consultants see a pretty good increase in MDI margins sequentially in 2Q versus 1Q driven by pricing. What are your thoughts in terms of industry profitability heading into 2Q?

彼得，一些顧問認為，受價格推動，第二季 MDI 利潤率與第一季相比將大幅成長。您對第二季度的行業獲利能力有何看法？

Well, again, if I take a snapshot of today, as I said earlier in my comments, it's around volume. Again, as I look at pricing, we're -- Europe where -- prices is matching raw materials. As I look at the US, I think that we have an opportunity to expand margin if we're able to maintain our price or slightly increase our price, hopefully, get it up even further and take advantage of falling raw material prices.

好吧，如果我再拍一張今天的快照，正如我之前在評論中所說的那樣，它是關於音量的。再次，當我查看定價時，我們——歐洲——的價格與原材料相符。當我觀察美國時，我認為如果我們能夠維持價格或略微提高價格，我們就有機會擴大利潤率，希望進一步提高價格並利用原物料價格下跌的機會。

Asia, again, I've talked about the fall off that we saw going into the second quarter. It's been a whopping eight days now that we've celebrated the price has either not been falling or gradually been coming up. So I'll continue to take that one day at a time.

我再次談到了亞洲在第二季度出現的下滑。我們已經慶祝了整整八天，價格要么沒有下跌，要么逐漸上漲。所以我會繼續一天一天地堅持下去。

But I want to emphasize that we're eight days into either a dead cat bounce or -- sorry, might have just offended a bunch of cat lovers out there -- dead cat bounce or it might be something that the product that was destined for North America that was being put on ships early in the first quarter, it was taken off ships and put back into the Chinese market. That product has been adequately absorbed into the Chinese market. And the Chinese markets are now better balanced.

但我想強調的是，我們已經進入了「死貓反彈」的八天了——抱歉，我可能冒犯了一群貓愛好者——「死貓反彈」也可能是，原本運往北美的產品在第一季度初裝船，後來被卸下船並重新進入中國市場。該產品已被中國市場充分吸收。如今，中國市場更加平衡。

So we look at a price going from $18,500 per ton, down to about $14,200, today sitting at like $15,200. Again, that's a lot of volatility. But the prices to where we were a month ago or so has been pretty stable for the last couple of months and it's been fairly healthy given where we are in the other parts of the world. So I think Asia continues to be -- it will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks on pricing.

因此，我們看到價格從每噸 18,500 美元跌至約 14,200 美元，目前約為 15,200 美元。再次，這有很大的波動性。但與一個月前相比，過去幾個月的價格一直相當穩定，而且與世界其他地區的情況相比，價格狀況相當健康。因此我認為亞洲將繼續——看看未來幾週的定價情況將會很有趣。

Got it. And then I understand that it's difficult to take a look beyond 2Q, but what do you think you need to see or want to see to have a better second half in terms of earnings versus the first half? And if the US economy goes into a recession, albeit it seems like we've been in a chemical recession for quite some time, what happens? What do you think you need to do to keep earnings at these levels?

知道了。然後我知道很難展望第二季度之後的情況，但您認為需要看到什麼或希望看到什麼才能使下半年的收益比上半年更好？如果美國經濟陷入衰退，儘管看起來我們已經陷入化學衰退很長一段時間了，會發生什麼事？您認為需要做什麼才能將收入維持在此水平？

Well, I certainly would like to see earnings improve materially from these levels. And again, as we look at the single biggest variable in the second quarter, as we look at -- and around where we had hoped second quarter would be versus where we see second quarter today, the biggest single variable that we see is around volume and pricing.

嗯，我當然希望看到收益從這些水平上大幅提高。再說一次，當我們觀察第二季最大的變數時，當我們觀察——以及我們對第二季的期望與我們現在看到的第二季的情況時，我們看到的最大變數是數量和價格。

And that's going to be, in my opinion, not 100%, but largely a function of certainty. And if you see certainty in the market and if people have an idea as to where tariffs are going and where supply chains are moving and that entire impact, you'll see volumes recover. And I believe that as you start seeing more and more trade deals get completed, that certainty slowly recovers back into the market.

在我看來，這不是 100%，但很大程度上取決於確定性。如果你看到市場確定性，如果人們知道關稅走向、供應鏈走向以及整體影響，你會看到交易量回升。我相信，隨著越來越多的貿易協議達成，市場將慢慢恢復確定性。

I hope that by the end of the quarter that we'll be surprised at the improvement in volume. But that volume does have to improve. And I believe that it will eventually improve, just simply because there's a massive disconnect, as I've said, between what consumers, what people are using, what they're buying, what they're spending on and what we're supplying into those markets. There's just not that much excess inventory in the system.

我希望到本季末，我們會對銷量的成長感到驚訝。但這數量確實需要提高。我相信這種情況最終會得到改善，因為正如我所說，消費者、人們使用的東西、購買的東西、花費的東西與我們向這些市場供應的東西之間存在著巨大的脫節。系統中並沒有那麼多的過剩庫存。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Arun Viswanathan。

I guess I had a question about the guidance. So it looks like your first half now is -- will be coming in around 150 or in that range. And if you were to annualize it and adding some seasonality, you get to like a 350 range, which is I think, quite a bit below what we started the year expecting. So obviously, Peter, you went through a lot of the potential pullback amongst your customers and then the potential positive bullwhip effects that can follow that.

我想我對於該指導有一個疑問。因此，看起來您的上半年現在將達到 150 左右或在該範圍內。如果你將其年度化並添加一些季節性因素，那麼你會得到 350 左右的範圍，我認為這比我們年初的預期要低很多。顯然，彼得，你經歷了客戶中許多潛在的回調，以及隨之而來的潛在正面的牛鞭效應。

But am I thinking about your level of confidence in EBITDA for the year in the right way? I just don't want to get ahead of our skis here just given all that uncertainty out there.

但是我是否以正確的方式考慮了您對今年 EBITDA 的信心程度？我只是不想因為外面有那麼多不確定性而影響我們的滑雪事業。

Yeah. Personally, Arun, yes, we're doing very well. Thank you for your comments. Personally, I would hope that we certainly finish the second half of the year better than the first half of the year. I think that the guidance that we gave in the first quarter call, we purposely avoided giving yearly direction just because it was so hazy then.

是的。就我個人而言，阿倫，是的，我們做得很好。感謝您的評論。就我個人而言，我希望我們下半年的表現一定比上半年好。我認為，我們在第一季電話會議上給予的指導，我們故意避免給予年度指導，只是因為當時的情況很模糊。

And I think it is far hazier today than it was then. I hate to say that given the fact that we're three months further into the year. So I mean, I want to hope for the second half, but I can't sit here and say that we've seen a bunch of orders that are going to give us a great deal of confidence. So I probably would just avoid trying to tell you where we're going to end the year.

我認為現在的霧霾比那時嚴重得多。考慮到今年已經過去三個月了，我不願意這麼說。所以我的意思是，我對下半年抱有希望，但我不能坐在這裡說我們已經看到了一堆訂單，這些訂單會給我們帶來很大的信心。所以我可能不會試圖告訴你我們將在哪裡結束這一年。

My personal opinion (technical difficulty) it's true. I think inventories are low. I think demand is a backlog of demand and housing and a lot of the products we produce, the build-out of aerospace and the recovery of it, the build-out of our electrical grid, the components and so forth going into that.

我個人的觀點（技術難度）這是真的。我認為庫存很低。我認為需求是積壓的需求和住房以及我們生產的許多產品、航空航太的建造和復甦、電網的建造、零件等等。

The expansion that we're going to continue to see in technologies and EVs and so forth, these all would tell you that there's going to be a growth in demand and there's going to be a (technical difficulty)

我們將繼續看到技術和電動車等方面的擴張，這些都表明需求將會成長，而且（技術難度）

Operator, any more questions?

接線員，還有其他問題嗎？

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的約翰羅伯茲。

Are you seeing uniform weakness across composite wood versus automotive versus insulation? Or is there some differentiation there? And then secondly, during 2020, a lot of the small spray foam customers got stimulus, at least to keep them going. Do you think they'd survive this correction right now?

您是否發現複合木材、汽車木材和絕緣材料都具有相同的弱點？或者說其中存在一些差異？其次，2020 年期間，許多小型噴塗泡沫客戶得到了刺激，至少可以維持他們的營運。您認為他們現在能撐過這次調整嗎？

Yeah, I've got no idea as to what our competition will be doing in spray foam. I've not heard or seen any talk, legislation or anything around any stimulus that would be directed towards a particular segment of any of our customer bases. So I'd be surprised to see that. Yeah. And as we look at the difference between OSB, insulation, automotive, I think that there's just a general trend right now of uncertainty.

是的，我不知道我們的競爭對手在噴塗泡沫方面會做什麼。我沒有聽到或看到任何針對我們任何客戶群的特定部分的刺激措施、立法或任何內容。所以看到這個我會很驚訝。是的。當我們觀察 OSB、絕緣材料和汽車之間的差異時，我認為目前存在的普遍趨勢是不確定性。

And that uncertainty right now just has people bringing down inventories, bringing down orders on the short-term, preserving capital, strengthening their balance sheet, doing those emergency steps that you see in moments and times of uncertainty until there's greater certainty. So I'm not sure that it's all necessarily tied industry to industry as much as it is just the general sentiment of the industry.

而現在的不確定性只會讓人們減少庫存、減少短期訂單、保存資本、加強資產負債表，採取那些在不確定的時刻和時期所看到的緊急措施，直到出現更大的確定性。因此，我不確定這是否一定與各行業息息相關，而只是行業的普遍情緒。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Congrats to Tony Hankins on his pending retirement. It was a pleasure to work with him. And by the way, I'm not sure if it was just me, but in the last 5 minutes or so, the conference call has been coming in and out. Perhaps it was just my phone.

恭喜托尼漢金斯即將退休。和他一起工作很愉快。順便說一句，我不確定是不是只有我一個人這樣，但在過去的 5 分鐘左右，電話會議一直在進行。也許只是我的手機出了問題。

But Peter, I appreciate the reference to COVID in terms of the paralysis that we're seeing now. But as I took a look back at COVID, and really, it was just one quarter. It was the second quarter of '20 that was very poor. The first quarter and third quarter of '20, you posted very strong results. And here we are, it looks like the second quarter is the third quarter of really poor results.

但彼得，我很欣賞你提到 COVID，並提到我們現在看到的癱瘓現象。但當我回顧 COVID 時，我發現它實際上只是一個季度。2020 年第二季的情況非常糟糕。2020 年第一季和第三季度，你們的業績非常強勁。現在看來，第二季的業績確實比第三季糟糕。

I mean is this systematic? Or you believe that it's episodic in that we're going to get out of it and you're going to go back to posting kind of $200 million-type EBITDA quarters? What gives you confidence that this is not a systemic decline in your business lines?

我的意思是這是系統的嗎？或者您認為這只是暫時現象，我們會擺脫困境，然後您將回到 2 億美元等級的 EBITDA 季度？您如何確信這不是您的業務線的系統性衰退？

What gives me confidence is the disconnect between -- if our sales were down, the automotive were down 10% and their sales were down the whole value chain was going down 10%. I'd say this is systematic. I'd say this is probably longer term, we ought to be getting ready for it. I'm simply not seeing that. And as I talk to customers and I talk to Board members and I talk to people that are involved in the auto, into the aerospace, and even into the homebuilders, I don't get that indication.

讓我有信心的是兩者之間的脫節——如果我們的銷售額下降，汽車銷售額就會下降 10%，而他們的銷售額下降，整個價值鏈就會下降 10%。我想說這是系統性的。我想說這可能是一個長期問題，我們應該為此做好準備。我根本沒看到這一點。當我與客戶、董事會成員以及從事汽車、航空航太甚至房屋建築業的人士交談時，我並沒有發現這種跡象。

Frank, I'm not going to sit here and say that I've talked to everybody, and I can retroactively reflect everybody's sentiment in this. But I do believe that I've only seen this disconnect between the panic and orders that we've seen today and that which we've seen previously.

弗蘭克，我不會坐在這裡說我已經和每個人都談過了，我可以追溯地反映每個人對此的看法。但我確實認為，今天我們所看到的恐慌和秩序與我們之前所看到的恐慌和秩序之間存在著脫節。

I would also just note that COVID -- we saw a lumpiness of the impact of COVID. There's no doubt, North America was certainly a second quarter phenomenon. I think it happened a little bit later than that in Europe, the impact on the European P&L. And it happened previous to that on the Chinese P&L. And the Chinese P&L also spilled again a second time in the latter part of 2020.

我還要指出的是，我們看到了 COVID 的影響的不均衡性。毫無疑問，北美無疑是第二季的現象。我認為這件事在歐洲發生得稍晚一些，對歐洲損益的影響也隨之而來。此前，中國損益表中也曾出現類似情況。而中國的損益表也在2020年下半年再次出現溢出。

So I don't want to get technical, the comparisons between COVID and where we are today. I will just say the only comparison that I was trying to make was more just around the couple of months that we saw a disconnect between inventory, customer demand, and pull-through of the ultimate supply chains.

因此，我不想從技術角度比較 COVID 和我們目前的狀況。我只想說，我試圖做的唯一比較是在幾個月左右的時間裡，我們看到庫存、客戶需求和最終供應鏈的拉動之間存在脫節。

Okay. Understood. And can you provide an update on the maleic facility in Europe? It seems like a couple of things happened there. One, you're looking to make a decision on it, I think, by midyear. But then you also had an unplanned outage. What's going on there? How should we think about that?

好的。明白了。您能否提供歐洲馬來酸工廠的最新情況？那裡似乎發生了幾件事。首先，我認為你會在年中之前做出決定。但隨後您也遇到了意外停電。那裡發生什麼事了？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Well, I would think about it that we think that by the middle part of this year that we will be in a position to announce a permanent decision as it pertains to that asset. And Europe continues to be flooded with maleic coming in from China and coming in indirectly from Russia via Turkey. And it also continues to be flooded not just with maleic but also downstream UPR materials as well.

嗯，我認為到今年年中，我們將能夠宣布與該資產相關的永久性決定。歐洲繼續受到來自中國和透過土耳其間接從俄羅斯進口的馬來酸的衝擊。而且，它不僅繼續被馬來酸所淹沒，而且還被下游的 UPR 材料所淹沒。

So it's getting hit in multiple areas. And so in addition to our operating issues that we have in Germany, certainly are seeing headwinds in just the overall demand in the margin erosion that we see in maleic in Europe.

因此它在多個領域受到了打擊。因此，除了我們在德國遇到的營運問題之外，我們還看到了歐洲馬來酸整體需求的阻力，導致利潤率下降。

Salvador Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦多·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

So firstly, on MDI, I wanted to ask how are you so far in Q1 or in Q2 managing your MDI system, specific your upstream MDI plants given the reduced demand? And specifically on Geismar, I remember a little bit over a year ago, you brought online or you restarted the smaller of the units there. So is this something that you may have to stop using again? Or are you still producing in Q1?

首先，關於 MDI，我想問一下，在需求減少的情況下，您在第一季或第二季管理 MDI 系統的情況如何，特別是上游 MDI 工廠的情況如何？特別是在蓋斯瑪 (Geismar)，我記得大約一年多前，你們在那裡上線或重啟了較小的單位。那麼，您是否必須再次停止使用這個東西？或者您第一季仍在生產嗎？

No. I would say that if anything, we're hoping to see greater capacity utilization. We brought Line 1 down in Q1 in part because obviously of low margins and in part because we believe that there was a lot of uncompetitive material being imported into the United States and that was having -- into the Americas market and that was having an impact on it.

不。我想說的是，我們希望看到更高的產能利用率。我們在第一季降低了 1 號線的產量，部分原因是利潤率較低，部分原因是我們認為大量缺乏競爭力的材料被進口到美國，這對美洲市場產生了影響。

So with tariffs that are in place, with the change of imports and so forth that we're seeing, if anything, I see the demand ought to be picking up for domestically produced MDI. Our downstream system houses in the US, I'd remind you that we don't have too many in the US. We produce polyols, and that's a raw material that's going into our spray foam and our other polyols business. That continues to be a great business for us.

因此，隨著關稅的實施、進口的變化等等，如果有的話，我認為對國產 MDI 的需求應該會回升。我們的下游系統公司在美國，我想提醒你，我們在美國沒有太多這樣的公司。我們生產多元醇，它是我們噴塗泡沫和其他多元醇業務所需的原料。這對我們來說仍然是一項偉大的業務。

We're consolidating -- I would say that our HBS business, it's a separate business. We look at internally, we try to run it as competitively as we can integrate with the rest of our business. In some regards, I look at that as a downstream systems business as well. And we're obviously consolidating that operation, making sure that our costs are aligned with the market realities.

我們正在整合——我想說我們的 HBS 業務是一個獨立的業務。我們從內部著眼，努力使其盡可能具有競爭力，並能與我們的其他業務整合。從某些方面來說，我也將其視為下游系統業務。我們顯然正在鞏固這項業務，確保我們的成本與市場現實一致。

In Europe, we've continued to -- we've announced the closure of our Deggendorf, Germany, and the reduction of some of our other sites and facilities around Europe. And we'll continue to look at our overall footprint there. So yeah, we'll continue to look at our costs. We'll continue to look at the overall structural demand and profitability of our entire chain.

在歐洲，我們繼續——我們宣布關閉德國代根多夫的工廠，並減少歐洲其他一些工廠和設施。我們將繼續關注我們在那裡的整體足跡。是的，我們會繼續關注我們的成本。我們將繼續關注整個鏈條的整體結構需求和獲利能力。

But this year, I think that even if we remain in somewhat sluggish economic environment, the opportunity to increase domestically produced MDI in North America will likely improve through the year.

但今年，我認為，即使我們仍然處於有些低迷的經濟環境中，北美增加國產 MDI 的機會也可能在今年有所改善。

Great. Perfect. And I wanted to follow up on the PO/MTBE JV in China and if you can give a little bit more outlook now on what you expect for perhaps the next few quarters. And if there's any more clarity, I guess, on what would be the deal that you receive on 2026 based on what is happening right now in earnings.

偉大的。完美的。我想跟進一下中國 PO/MTBE 合資公司的情況，您是否可以就未來幾季的預期再多說一點？我想，如果能更清楚地了解，根據目前的獲利情況，您在 2026 年會得到什麼樣的待遇。

Yeah. So I mean, as we said, our equity dividends for '25 will be a lot lower than they were in '24. MTBE margins started to decline towards the back end of last year. And you can follow those margins via CMA via (technical difficulty) -- they're close to breakeven today as oil has come off, WTI is now below 60, Brent, down at about 60. So they're close to breakeven right now.

是的。所以我的意思是，正如我們所說的，我們 25 年的股票股息將比 24 年低很多。MTBE 利潤率自去年年底開始下降。您可以透過 CMA（技術難度）追蹤這些利潤率——由於油價下跌，它們今天已接近盈虧平衡點，WTI 價格目前低於 60，布倫特價格也跌至 60 左右。所以他們現在接近收支平衡。

And that's why we've guided to where we have in the second quarter. And that second quarter ex the income will be about $20 million below where we were in the second quarter of last year. So there's a large bridge there, just on the ex income side.

這就是我們指導第二季業績的原因。第二季的營收將比去年第二季低約 2,000 萬美元。所以那裡有一座大橋，就在前收入那邊。

How that plays out for the remainder of the year, I think it will be dictated by economic activity. certainty around tariffs, where oil heads overall. MTBE has had a long history of being low margin and then being able to turn around to higher margins. So we're not in the position today to guide how our dividends are going to look in '26 over '25. That's an extremely volatile product in market.

我認為，今年剩餘時間的情況將取決於經濟活動、關稅的確定性以及石油的整體走向。MTBE 長期以來利潤一直較低，但後來利潤卻回升。因此，我們今天還無法預測 26 年與 25 年相比我們的股利將會如何。這是市場上極不穩定的產品。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Can I ask a question on the debt picture here? So you took care of some notes in the first quarter. I think you stand around 4 times net levered on an LTM basis. If we look at that more on an annualized first half basis, you're around 5.5 times net leverage. Do you need to reduce debt? Or are you still comfortable with where you're at?

我可以在這裡問一個有關債務狀況的問題嗎？所以你在第一季處理了一些筆記。我認為您的 LTM 淨槓桿比率約為 4 倍。如果我們從上半年的年度化角度來看，淨槓桿比率約為 5.5 倍。你需要減少債務嗎？或者你對現在的處境還滿意嗎？

Well, I'm certainly not comfortable with the margins that are being earned in the business. They ought to be higher, and I believe that they will be getting higher. And I think we're taking a snapshot of time as to where our debt levels are at what I would think right now would be -- certainly a low as we leave the first quarter going into the second quarter and would hope for some improvement there.

嗯，我確實對這項業務所賺取的利潤感到不滿。它們應該更高，而且我相信它們會越來越高。我認為我們正在對我們的債務水平進行快照，我認為現在的水平是 - 在我們離開第一季度進入第二季度時肯定會處於低位，並希望那裡會有所改善。

But no, I think as we look at our longer-term debt levels on a normalized EBITDA basis, we continue to be in a position where I believe we have a very strong balance sheet.

但不，我認為，當我們以正常化的 EBITDA 為基礎來審視我們的長期債務水平時，我們仍然處於一個我認為擁有非常強勁的資產負債表的位置。

If you look, we've got bond maturities '29, '31, and '34. And $1.5 billion of net debt for this portfolio and over a cycle is a good number to be at. We're obviously a trough economics now, well aware of that. Our liquidity, as I've said, is $1.3 billion is also ample. And we'll do all the relevant things that you'd expect to adequately protect the balance sheet.

如果你看一下，我們會發現我們有 29 年、31 年和 34 年到期的債券。對於這個投資組合來說，一個週期內的淨債務達到 15 億美元是一個不錯的數字。我們現在顯然正處於經濟低谷，我們很清楚這一點。正如我所說，我們的流動資金為 13 億美元，這也是充足的。我們將採取一切相關措施，以充分保護資產負債表。

But that longer maturity profile that we have on bonds is helpful.

但我們債券的較長期限特徵是有幫助的。

Sounds good. And then I think the prepared comments mentioned that your construction volumes for your overall business were down 6% quarter-over-quarter in Q1, which seems like an unusual counter-seasonal move. Was that weakness coming more from commercial or more from the residential side?

聽起來不錯。然後我認為準備好的評論提到，你們整體業務的建築量在第一季環比下降了 6％，這似乎是一個不尋常的反季節性走勢。這種弱點更多來自商業方面還是來自住宅方面？

I believe that was mostly from the residential side of the business. And I would think that a lot of that, again, had to do more with the buying patterns rather than the demand patterns on the construction side.

我相信這主要來自住宅業務方面。而且我認為，這在很大程度上與購買模式有關，而不是與建築方面的需求模式有關。

Yeah. Normally, you do actually expect a slight decline when you move from Q4 to Q1. We look at it relatively simply in that in Q4, you have December as a low month; whereas in quarter 1, you have January and February as low months, particularly with Chinese New Year. So that's the way to think about that sequential movement when it comes to construction globally.

是的。通常情況下，從第四季度到第一季度，你確實會預期會出現輕微的下降。我們相對簡單地看待這個問題，因為在第四季度，12 月是淡季；而在第一季度，1 月和 2 月是淡季，尤其是農曆新年期間。這就是在全球建設中思考連續運動的方式。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

This is Emily Fusco on for Dave Begleiter. You announced the doubling of your cost savings to $100 million. Do you have any early preview of where these savings will be coming from?

我是 Emily Fusco，為 Dave Begleiter 報道。您宣布將成本節省增加一倍至 1 億美元。您是否提前預測過這些節省的資金將從何而來？

Well, very good question. We'll be giving more details about this. I don't like announcing cost savings until we literally have it down to exact numbers and details and so forth. We feel very confident that we're heading there exactly where that is, will be located and so forth. I think I gave some indications about having to calibrate our cost structure to the market realities, particularly in Europe. But I think we'll be giving more light and more color on that as the quarter progresses.

嗯，這個問題問得非常好。我們將提供更多有關此問題的詳細資訊。在我們真正掌握確切的數字和細節等之前，我不喜歡宣布成本節約。我們非常有信心，我們正朝著那個目標前進，知道那個目標的確切位置等等。我認為我已經給出了一些指示，表明我們必須根據市場現實（尤其是歐洲的市場現實）來調整我們的成本結構。但我認為，隨著本季的進展，我們將對此給予更多的闡述和說明。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

Peter and Phil, apologies if someone has asked this question previously. My line was cutting in and out. Just wanted to revisit some of the commentary around MDI. Specifically, you talked about 20% to 25% of US MDI demand being met via exports from China. I mean, look, I completely understand that it's highly unpredictable what the future of these tariffs will be.

Peter 和 Phil，如果有人之前問過這個問題，我們深感抱歉。我的線路斷斷續續。只是想重新審視一些關於 MDI 的評論。具體來說，您談到美國 20% 至 25% 的 MDI 需求透過中國出口來滿足。我的意思是，我完全理解這些關稅的未來方向是極難預測的。

But I mean, when I sit there and think about the impact of tariffs and above and beyond that, more specifically for MDI, the whole antidumping investigation that's going on, I think it's obviously fair to assume that Chinese product in a tariff world and an antidumping world, there will be duties on that product.

但我的意思是，當我坐下來思考關稅以及除此之外的影響時，更具體地說對於 MDI 來說，以及正在進行的整個反傾銷調查，我認為顯然可以公平地假設，在關稅世界和反傾銷世界中，中國產品都會被徵收關稅。

So am I missing something? Because it just seems beyond some of these very near-term trends of loading up on sort of Chinese exports into the US market and the issues caused by that in the near term, I mean, beyond the near term, the setup actually seems highly favorable if you're producing product in the US. Am I thinking about this the right way?

那我遺漏了什麼嗎？因為這似乎超出了近期的一些趨勢，即大量中國產品出口到美國市場，以及由此在短期內造成的問題，我的意思是，在短期之外，如果你在美國生產產品，這種設置實際上看起來非常有利。我這樣想對嗎？

Hassan, well, very good question. Thank you very much. I think that you are. So a couple of things. I don't want to go down a rabbit hole here, but I want to make sure that we clarify what's long term and what short term. First of all, when we talk about a 20% to 25% supply going to the market, that's for the Americas. That's for North, South United States, just for the Americas, right? When you talk about in the United States, that number would even be higher than that 20%.

哈桑，嗯，這個問題問得非常好。非常感謝。我認為你是。有幾件事。我不想在這裡深入探討，但我想確保我們明確什麼是長期，什麼是短期。首先，當我們談到20%到25%的供應量進入市場時，這是指美洲的供應量。那是指北美洲、南美洲，對嗎？如果談到美國，這個數字甚至會高於 20%。

So when you think about tariffs and where they are, think about where we were at the beginning of the year, which was what I would call the 301 tariffs. These were tariffs that were put in place in the first Trump administration, they were maintained through the Biden administration. The reason I bring that up is I would consider these to be longer-term tariffs. These are about 31.5% tariffs that were in place.

因此，當你考慮關稅及其現狀時，請想想我們今年年初的情況，也就是我所說的 301 關稅。這些關稅是在川普第一屆政府時期實施的，並在拜登政府時期得以維持。我之所以提起這一點，是因為我認為這些是長期關稅。已實施的關稅約為31.5%。

In addition to that, I'll then put a second bucket of what I would call the Trump tariffs. Those are the tariffs that were put in place over the course of the last 30 to 60 days. Now I may be a little bit off on these tariffs because they seemingly have changed back and forth a little bit.

除此之外，我還會增加第二桶我稱之為川普關稅的商品。這些關稅是在過去 30 到 60 天內實施的。現在，我對這些關稅的看法可能有點偏差，因為它們似乎一直在反覆變化。

But those today are around 145%. The reason I put those in the second bucket is, they came rather suddenly. And all of a sudden, you might see Xi Jinping and Trump emerge from a trade summit or something like that and say they're gone. I'm not expecting that to happen. But again, they came suddenly, they can lead just a suddenly. And so I would say that's a Trump's tariffs around 145% added to the 31%. It gets you just over the 175%.

但如今這一比例已達 145% 左右。我把它們放在第二個桶子裡的原因是它們來得相當突然。突然之間，你可能會看到習近平和川普在貿易高峰會或類似會議上出現並說他們已經離開。我並不期望這樣的事情會發生。但話說回來，他們來得太突然，他們能夠領導也只是突然而已。所以我想說，川普的關稅是 145% 加上 31%。它能讓你超過 175%。

There's also an antidumping case. It's quite separate and apart from what I would call the Trump tariffs, and this is around the ITC and the Commerce Department. And as I think about those cases on -- in March of this year, the ITC ruled that there was a reasonable indication that there's been an impact on domestic industry supply balances, profitability, so on and so forth from Chinese imports.

還有一起反傾銷案。這與我所說的川普關稅截然不同，這是圍繞著國際貿易委員會和商務部進行的。當我思考這些案件時——今年 3 月，國際貿易委員會裁定，有合理跡象表明，中國進口產品對國內產業供應平衡、獲利能力等產生了影響。

The Commerce Department is now conducting a preliminary investigation, and that's supposed to be done by around the middle of September of this year. Assuming that they ruled favorably in that investigation, that will then go to a Commerce and ITC.

目前商務部正在進行初步調查，預計今年9月中旬左右完成。假設他們在該調查中做出了有利的裁決，那麼該案將提交給商務部和國際貿易委員會審理。

The International Trade Commission will conduct a final investigation to determine the dumping and the amount. And that will probably be adjudicated sometime final decision sometime around February with a final rule putt in place on March of next year. That could be anywhere from 3% to 500%.

國際貿易委員會將進行最終調查，以確定傾銷情況和金額。最終裁決可能會在明年二月左右做出，最終規則將於明年三月實施。這可能在 3% 到 500% 之間。

The reason I put that in a third bucket is that's quite apart from any sentiment that the President may or may not have for any negotiations that we has with somebody. That's an ITC and the Commerce Department ruling. And if that's put into effect, those go for a period of five years before they are revisited.

我將其放在第三類的原因是，這與總統在與某人進行任何談判時可能持有或不持有的任何情緒截然不同。這是美國國際貿易委員會和商務部的裁決。如果該措施付諸實施，則有效期為五年，之後才會重新進行審查。

So you have, again, the pre-Trump tariffs, 31%. The Trump arbitrary -- I don't want to say arbitrary, I'm sure a lot of logic and thought went into it, the Trump arbitrary tariff of 145% that I would say could come and go. And then there's this antidumping case, it could be anywhere from 3% to 500%. Again, that could be put into place and could be put into place on a long-term basis for multiple years.

因此，川普上台前的關稅再次達到了 31%。川普的專斷——我不想說專斷，我相信這其中有很多邏輯和思考，我想說川普 145% 的專斷關稅可以隨時取消。然後是這個反傾銷案，稅率可能在 3% 到 500% 之間。再次強調，這可以實施，並且可以長期實施多年。

So yes, I think that to answer your question -- I'm not going to sit here and say that I claim to know the impact of all that because it's all happening as we speak. But I think you'd have to be pretty naive to think that if those were all implemented or if any two of those three were implemented, that, that would not have an impact on the North American marketplace.

所以是的，我認為要回答你的問題——我不會坐在這裡說我聲稱知道這一切的影響，因為這一切都在我們說話的時候發生。但我認為，如果你認為如果全部實施這些措施或實施其中任何兩項措施就不會對北美市場產生影響，那就太天真了。

And I think that my comments earlier about having to shut down part of our production, when you reopen that production, demand comes back. You're hiring more people. You're hiring -- you're spending more domestically, you're producing more domestically, you're paying higher taxes domestically, and you see the impact of that.

我認為我之前說過必須關閉部分生產，但當你重新開放生產時，需求就會恢復。您正在僱用更多人。你在招聘——你在國內花費更多，你在國內生產更多，你在國內繳納更高的稅，你看到了其影響。

So yeah, that is all playing out in real time, Hassan, and I greatly apologize for a long-winded answer.

是的，這一切都是即時發生的，哈桑，我對於冗長的回答深表歉意。

No worries at all. And as a quick follow-up, obviously, uncertainty in -- I mean, if I were a Chinese polyurethane producer facing these headwinds, I guess, I would probably be thinking about maybe some rationalization. And adding to those walls, I mean, of course, China imports around 40% to 50% of their LPG needs, propane in particular, from the US, right? And obviously, on the surface, it seems that those are going to be tariffed as well.

完全不用擔心。作為一個快速的後續問題，顯然存在不確定性 - 我的意思是，如果我是一家面臨這些不利因素的中國聚氨酯生產商，我想，我可能會考慮一些合理化措施。除了這些牆之外，我的意思是，中國當然要從美國進口大約 40% 到 50% 的液化石油氣，特別是丙烷，對嗎？顯然，從表面上看，這些產品似乎也將被徵收關稅。

And if you take a look at the last couple of years, China has more than doubled its PDH capacity, right? So all of a sudden, in that tariffed world, I'd like to think that-- maybe there will be some shuttering of those PDH units because they'll become highly uneconomic, right, which, in theory, will impact propylene supply and which, in theory, could impact PO and all urethane economics.

如果你看一下過去幾年，中國的PDH容量增加了一倍多，對嗎？因此，突然之間，在那個關稅世界裡，我想 - 可能會關閉一些 PDH 裝置，因為它們將變得非常不經濟，對吧，理論上，這會影響丙烯供應，理論上，可能會影響 PO 和所有聚氨酯的經濟性。

So I mean, again, is that the right way of thinking about it? And are you seeing any indications of rationalization on the back of all of these headwinds?

所以我的意思是，這是正確的思考方式嗎？在所有這些不利因素的背後，您是否看到了任何合理化的跡象？

Yeah. It's an excellent point, Hassan, and very well thought through. I think that as you look at these, they're each going to be treated differently. I look at the NGLs that are being imported into China from the US and to what degree those are -- are tariffs coming or going into China.

是的。哈桑，這是一個很好的觀點，而且經過深思熟慮。我認為，當你看到這些時，它們都會得到不同的對待。我關注從美國進口到中國的天然氣液體 (NGL)，以及這些液體的關稅是進入中國還是進入中國。

I noticed this last week, that China dropped its tariff on ethane, a vital raw material for gas cracking into ethylene and polyethylene. So yes, you're already starting to see backwards movement in certain areas and certain products that are being freed up, if you will. But there will be a great deal of, I think, of change coming in the next quarter or two. I don't think it's going to play out in the next couple of years. I think it can play in the next quarter or two. And what exactly international producers decide to do is purely up in the air.

我上週注意到，中國降低了乙烷的關稅，而乙烷是天然氣裂解成乙烯和聚乙烯的重要原料。所以是的，如果你願意的話，你已經開始看到某些領域和某些產品正在倒退，而這些產品正在被釋放。但我認為，未來一兩個季度將會發生很大的變化。我不認為這種情況在未來幾年內會發生。我認為它可以在下一季或下一季發揮作用。而國際生產商究竟決定做什麼，目前還不清楚。

Operator, I think if we have any more questions, we'll take that. But I know we'll be on the top of the hour, and I think it's pretty crowded day with calls right now.

接線員，我想如果我們還有其他問題，我們會回答。但我知道我們將會處於整點時刻，而且我認為現在電話會非常多。

We have no other questions at this time. So at this point, I will conclude our Q&A session and our call. We thank you for your interest and your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

我們目前沒有其他問題。因此，我將在此時結束我們的問答環節和電話會議。我們感謝您的關注與參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。