Huntsman Corp (HUN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Huntsman Corporation third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this all participants are on listen only mode. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加亨斯邁公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時所有參與者都處於僅監聽模式。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ivan Marcuse. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給東道主伊万​​·馬爾庫塞。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Huntsman's third quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining us on the call today are Peter Huntsman, Chairman, CEO and President; and Phil Lister, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，羅布，大家早安。歡迎參加亨斯邁 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天加入我們電話會議的還有董事長、執行長兼總裁 Peter Huntsman；和菲爾·利斯特（Phil Lister），執行副總裁兼財務長。

Yesterday, November -- last night, November 4, 2024, after the US equity markets closed, we released our earnings for the third quarter of 2024 via press release and posted to our website, huntsman.com. We also posted a set of slides and detailed commentary discussing the third quarter on our website. Peter Huntsman will provide some opening comments shortly, and we will then move to the question-and-answer session for the remainder of the call.

昨天，2024 年 11 月 - 昨晚，即 2024 年 11 月 4 日，美國股市收盤後，我們透過新聞稿發布了 2024 年第三季的收益，並發佈在我們的網站 Huntsman.com 上。我們還在我們的網站上發布了一組討論第三季的幻燈片和詳細評論。彼得·亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman) 很快就會發表一些開場評論，然後我們將進入電話會議剩餘時間的問答環節。

During the call, let me remind you that we may make statements about our projections or expectations for the future. All such statements are forward-looking statements, and while they reflect our current expectations, they involve risks and uncertainties, and are not guarantees of future performance. You should review our filings with the SEC for more information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections or expectations. We do not plan on publicly updating or revising any forward-looking statements during the quarter.

在通話過程中，請容許我提醒您，我們可能會就我們對未來的預測或期望發表聲明。所有此類陳述均為前瞻性陳述，雖然反映了我們當前的預期，但涉及風險和不確定性，並且不能保證未來業績。您應該查看我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以了解有關可能導致實際結果與這些預測或預期有重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。我們不打算在本季公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述。

We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss and free cash flow. You can find reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, which has been posted to our website, huntsman.com.

我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入或虧損以及自由現金流。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表，該報告已發佈在我們的網站 Huntsman.com 上。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter Huntsman, Chairman and CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給董事長兼執行長彼得‧亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman)。

Ivan, thank you very much, and thank you all for taking the time to join us this morning. We've got quite a few people on line for questions. So I'm just going to be very brief.

伊万，非常感謝您，也感謝大家今天早上抽出時間來參加我們的活動。我們有很多人在線上提問。我的發言將非常簡短。

The third quarter ended about where we expected it to finish, and we're now focused on the fourth quarter and year-end. While we expected the year to be better than it's shaping up to be, there's still a number of positives as we move from quarter three to quarter four and year-end. As we said to many of you during our investor conferences, an improvement in North American housing and construction will be the single most impactful change in our earnings.

第三季的結束與我們預期的結束相同，現在我們的重點是第四季和年底。雖然我們預計今年會比預期的情況更好，但隨著第三季、第四季和年底的到來，仍然存在許多積極因素。正如我們在投資者會議上對你們許多人所說的那樣，北美住房和建築業的改善將是對我們收益影響最大的變化。

I'm heartened to see that interest rates are dropping and both US Presidential candidates are making new housing a major part of their economic platform for improvement. We are hopeful that another rate cut between now and the end of the year will continue to improve the anemic growth we're still seeing today.

我很高興看到利率正在下降，而且兩位美國總統候選人都將新住房作為其改善經濟平台的主要組成部分。我們希望從現在到今年年底之間的另一次降息將繼續改善我們今天仍然看到的疲軟的成長。

In addition to falling interest rates over the past two quarters, we've seen a return to more traditional MDI growth that exceeds the rate of GDP growth. As we have said in past quarters, we need to see demand growth improve and capacity utilization rates increase before we see meaningful margin expansion. The demand growth is moving in the right direction, but I was disappointed to see our recent Q4 MDI price increases get little traction with customers. We continue to see very low inventories across the board, and rising demand will eventually support price increases and margin expansion.

除了過去兩個季度利率下降之外，我們還看到 MDI 成長率回歸傳統，超過了 GDP 成長率。正如我們在過去幾季所說的，我們需要看到需求成長改善和產能利用率提高，然後才能看到有意義的利潤率擴張。需求成長正朝著正確的方向發展，但我很失望地看到我們最近第四季 MDI 價格上漲對客戶的吸引力不大。我們繼續看到庫存非常低，需求的成長最終將支持價格上漲和利潤率擴張。

Additionally, we see a number -- we see a record amount of global chemical assets, especially in Europe, that are on the market. I would personally be surprised if all of these assets are sold. So I imagine that very few of these are actually making money. Given Europe's desire to rid itself of manufacturing, which I see reflected in its adherence to anti-growth energy and regulatory policies, I doubt the prospects will change anytime soon. We may well see a number of facilities close due to a combination of regulatory and high cost structures. Longer term, I think there will be a much needed consolidation in a number of chemical products in Europe.

此外，我們還看到了一個數字——我們看到市場上的全球化學資產數量創歷史新高，尤其是在歐洲。如果所有這些資產都被出售，我個人會感到驚訝。所以我想其中真正賺錢的很少。鑑於歐洲渴望擺脫製造業，我認為這反映在其堅持反成長的能源和監管政策上，我懷疑前景很快就會改變。由於監管和高成本結構的結合，我們很可能會看到許多設施關閉。從長遠來看，我認為歐洲的許多化學產品將進行急需的整合。

Having returned recently from visiting government leaders, customers and partners in Malaysia, China, Saudi Arabia and Korea, I believe that these markets are seeing relatively low growth. But as they continue to sort out their conflicts and housing bubbles, we'll continue to see opportunities grow. 2025 should be a year of gradual improvement across Asia and the Middle East.

我最近從馬來西亞、中國、沙烏地阿拉伯和韓國拜訪了政府領導人、客戶和合作夥伴，我相信這些市場的成長相對較低。但隨著他們繼續解決衝突和房地產泡沫，我們將繼續看到機會成長。 2025年應該是亞洲和中東地區逐步改善的一年。

We continue to look at all of our production sites and examine our cost structure, supply agreements and operating rates. Before the end of the year, we will be initiating a further $50 million cost reduction program in our global Polyurethanes business. This is in addition to the $280 million in costs we've taken out of the entire company over the past few years.

我們將繼續審視我們所有的生產基地，並檢視我們的成本結構、供應協議和開工率。年底前，我們將在全球聚氨酯業務中進一步啟動 5,000 萬美元的成本削減計畫。這還不包括過去幾年我們從整個公司支出的 2.8 億美元成本。

We will continue to manage our way through challenges, such as the recently settled Boeing strike, which will cost an estimated few million dollars in the fourth quarter. We'll also capitalize on growing EV battery opportunities tightening insulation standards and energy efficiency in home and building materials.

我們將繼續應對挑戰，例如最近解決的波音罷工，預計第四季將損失數百萬美元。我們還將利用不斷增長的電動車電池機會，收緊家居和建築材料的絕緣標準和能源效率。

While too early to say much about 2025, I believe lower interest rates, pent-up housing demand, Asian stimulus announcements, lower inventories and greater political certainty in Europe and the US will all work towards improving market conditions.

雖然對2025 年做出太多評價還為時過早，但我相信較低的利率、被壓抑的住房需求、亞洲的刺激計劃、較低的庫存以及歐洲和美國更大的政治確定性都將有助於改善市場狀況。

With that, operator, why don't we open the line up for any questions?

既然如此，接線員，為什麼我們不開放隊列來回答任何問題？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Peter, do you expect MDI assets in Europe to be closed in this iteration of restructuring?

Peter，您預計歐洲的 MDI 資產會在本次重組中關閉嗎？

I'm sorry, David. I didn't get the entire question. Do I expect?

對不起，大衛。我沒有聽清楚整個問題。我期待嗎？

Do you expect MDI assets to be closed in Europe in this iteration of restructurings and reviews?

您是否預計在本次重組和審查中關閉歐洲的 MDI 資產？

Of Huntsman's restructuring?

亨斯邁的重組？

No, no, of competitors MDI assets.

不，不，競爭對手的 MDI 資產。

Look, I simply have no idea what our competition is doing. As I look around the world, you look at the cost curve in Asia, I think given the size and the relative recent construction of the capacities of MDI in Asia, there's a relatively flat cost curve in Asia. I think Wanhua has an advantage just simply because of the scale an integration that they enjoy. But it's a pretty flat cost curve. I think it's pretty similar in the US where you have a handful of players that all have about the same size facilities, single-site locations and so forth.

聽著，我根本不知道我們的競爭對手在做什麼。當我環顧世界時，看看亞洲的成本曲線，我認為考慮到亞洲 MDI 產能的規模和相對近期的建設，亞洲的成本曲線相對平坦。我認為萬華的優勢僅僅在於他們所享受的規模和整合。但這是一條相當平坦的成本曲線。我認為這在美國非常相似，美國有一些玩家，他們都擁有相同規模的設施、單一站點位置等等。

Europe continues to operate multiple smaller facilities and multiple -- across multiple countries. And as I look at that and you look at the raw material costs, energy costs, transportation costs, regulatory costs, everything else across Europe, I'd be very surprised if we're sitting here a year or two from now, and all of those, particularly the smaller non-integrated facilities, are still operating. But again, I just look at that on a cost curve, US versus Asia versus Europe. And certainly, Europe is the outlier when I look at that. But again, I haven't any idea what goes on in the competition.

歐洲繼續在多個國家運營多個較小的設施和多個設施。當我看到這一點，你看看原材料成本、能源成本、運輸成本、監管成本以及整個歐洲的其他一切時，如果我們一兩年後還坐在這裡，我會感到非常驚訝，所有這些其中，特別是規模較小的非綜合設施仍在運作。但同樣，我只是從成本曲線來看，美國與亞洲與歐洲。當然，在我看來，歐洲是個例外。但同樣，我不知道比賽中發生了什麼事。

Very good. And just on your new restructuring program, Polyurethanes, $50 million. Can you detail the functions and regions where that cost is being removed from?

非常好。就在你的新的聚氨酯重組計劃上，5000萬美元。您能否詳細說明哪些職能和區域正在消除該成本？

Yeah. Most of that is going to be in Europe. It will be centered around our automotive and construction. We'll be giving some more detail about this during our fourth quarter call in a couple of months. But safe to say this is -- this will be about a $50 million cost savings over the next few years. The majority of this ought to be gained by the -- on a run rate basis by the end of next year. And the cost, typically when you're looking at these sort of programs, it pretty much costs you the same as the savings. So there's about a one-year, give or take, a quarter to a one-year payback on this.

是的。其中大部分將在歐洲。它將以我們的汽車和建築為中心。我們將在幾個月後的第四季度電話會議上提供有關此問題的更多詳細資訊。但可以肯定地說，這將在未來幾年內節省約 5,000 萬美元的成本。以運行率計算，到明年年底，其中大部分應該會實現。而成本，通常當您考慮此類計劃時，您的成本幾乎與節省的成本相同。因此，或多或少，大約一年就能收回四分之一到一年的投資回報。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

傑夫‧澤考斯卡斯，摩根大通。

In the quarter, you received a dividend of $35 million related to the SLIC China JV acquisition. I take it that went through cash flow from operations. And are there any more dividends to come from that source?

本季度，您收到了與 SLIC 中國合資企業收購相關的 3,500 萬美元股息。我認為是透過營運產生的現金流。這個來源還能帶來更多紅利嗎？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Jeff. Correct. $35 million from the liquidation of the Chinese joint venture. You'll recall, we did that restructuring in the first quarter of this year. We're now moving through the liquidation process. And during the quarter, we liquidated about $65 million. $35 million of that can be recorded as a dividend, which impacts free cash flow, the dividend, which is over or below the amount of net income that we've received over the lifetime of the JV $30 million was simply a capital reinjection. There's about RMB300 million left to liquidate out of that JV. We expect that to occur during 2025. None of that will be recorded as a dividend. It can't be for accounting purposes. And therefore, it wouldn't impact free cash flow.

是的。謝謝你的提問，傑夫。正確的。來自中國合資企業清算的 3500 萬美元。您還記得，我們​​在今年第一季進行了重組。我們現在正在進行清算程序。在本季度，我們清算了約 6500 萬美元。其中 3500 萬美元可以記錄為股息，這會影響自由現金流，股息高於或低於我們在合資企業生命週期內收到的淨收入金額，3000 萬美元只是資本再注入。該合資公司仍有約3億元可供清算。我們預計這將在 2025 年發生。這些都不會被記錄為股息。它不能用於會計目的。因此，它不會影響自由現金流。

And in terms of your -- can you describe your volume expectations in MDI for the fourth quarter in general and by region?

就您而言，您能否描述一下您對第四季度 MDI 總體和按地區的產量預期？

I think that as we look at this, we'll see a seasonal decline. That's usually about 15% to 20% depending on year-end inventory stock and so forth. Jeff, I'm not trying to evade a direct answer on this. But typically, in the middle of November, in the next week or two, we'll start to see just how much people are trying to cut inventories and try to preserve working capital and so forth.

我認為，當我們審視這一點時，我們會看到季節性下降。通常約為 15% 至 20%，具體取決於年末庫存庫存等。傑夫，我並不是想迴避對此的直接回答。但通常情況下，在 11 月中旬，在接下來的一兩週內，我們將開始看到有多少人試圖削減庫存並試圖保留營運資金等等。

And literally, as you start to see this in the last four to six weeks of the year, people will, in some cases, will just stop ordering and they'll take their inventories down. Now I believe that inventories are -- just anecdotally, as you look across MDI, inventories are very low. But the some regions of the world where growth -- demand is pretty anemic as well. So I think that we'll see what we typically see during seasonality which is, on a global basis, anywhere from 10% to 15%.

從字面上看，當你在一年的最後四到六週開始看到這種情況時，在某些情況下，人們會停止訂購，並且會減少庫存。現在我相信庫存——只是有趣的是，當你觀察 MDI 時，庫存非常低。但世界上一些地區的成長需求也相當疲軟。因此，我認為我們會看到季節性期間通常會看到的情況，即在全球範圍內，成長率在 10% 到 15% 之間。

Patrick Cunningham, Citi.

派崔克‧坎寧安，花旗銀行。

So you mentioned MDI price increases were rebuffed into 4Q '24. What are your expectations for prices by region in 4Q? And what are you reflecting in terms of raw material declines?

所以你提到 MDI 價格上漲在 24 年第四季被拒絕。您對第四季各地區價格有何預期？您對原材料下降有何看法？

Well, I think that as we look at pricing for MDI in Q4, it's looking pretty flat. I mean, if we look at some of the spot markets, there's a little bit of upward pressure in China. But if I look at the spot prices in Europe and the US, it's flat to down a little bit in tracking the cost of benzene. So I think we'll pick up a little bit of a benefit from benzene, but that will -- not poly, but partially be offset by flat pricing and probably higher natural gas prices.

嗯，我認為當我們觀察第四季度 MDI 的定價時，它看起來相當平穩。我的意思是，如果我們觀察一些現貨市場，就會發現中國存在一些上行壓力。但如果我看看歐洲和美國的現貨價格，隨著苯成本的上漲，其價格持平甚至略有下降。因此，我認為我們會從苯中獲得一點好處，但這不會是聚苯，但會被固定價格和可能更高的天然氣價格部分抵消。

Very helpful. And then in Performance Products, you cited sales volume increases in construction, coatings and adhesives. Was this in line with your expectations? Or are you outperforming the market here? Or is this mostly the absence of destocking?

非常有幫助。然後，在高性能產品中，您提到了建築、塗料和黏合劑銷售的成長。這符合您的預期嗎？或是你的表現優於市場嗎？還是主要是因為沒有去庫存？

I think in Performance Products, we're -- right now, the good side about that business is it's the margins on a per pound basis, remained fairly strong. Our biggest issue there is around demand. And you typically see, again, seasonality in that business like you do other businesses. And so I'm hopeful that we'll start to see the demand start coming back after the Chinese New Year in particular. But it will be in line with the typical seasonality that we see.

我認為在高性能產品方面，我們現在該業務的好處是每磅的利潤仍然相當強勁。我們最大的問題是需求。與其他業務一樣，您通常會再次看到該業務的季節性。因此，我希望我們能夠看到需求開始回升，尤其是在農曆新年之後。但這將符合我們看到的典型季節性。

Mike Sison, Wells Fargo.

麥克西森，富國銀行。

Peter, for polyurethane, you are getting volume growth. The earnings leverage or EBITDA leverage just doesn't seem to be kicking in yet. What level of volume or sales do you think you need to see to start seeing the appropriate leverage for that business going forward?

彼得，對於聚氨酯來說，銷量正在成長。獲利槓桿或 EBITDA 槓桿似乎還沒有發揮作用。您認為您需要看到什麼水平的銷售或銷售額才能開始看到該業務未來的適當槓桿？

It's an excellent question and one that we ask ourselves quite often as well. As we really see in this market, we start getting leverage when capacity utilization gets in the high 80s. Now exactly what segment of the market does that have to hit and so forth, that's all yet to be determined. But as we look around the world, I believe that the global operating rates are probably in the mid-85, 87, 88, that we might be -- if we continue to see the sort of growth in demand and recovery in MDI that we've seen this past year, I believe that we ought to be seeing some expansion in pricing and margins early in 2025.

這是一個很好的問題，也是我們常問自己的問題。正如我們在這個市場中實際看到的那樣，當產能利用率達到 80 左右時，我們就開始獲得槓桿作用。現在到底要衝擊哪個市場領域等等，這一切都還沒確定。但當我們環顧世界時，我相信全球開工率可能會在 85 年、87 年、88 年中期，如果我們繼續看到需求的增長和 MDI 的複蘇，我們可能會達到這樣的水平。的情況，我相信我們應該會在2025 年初看到定價和利潤率的一些擴張。

Again, that's predicated upon demand continuing to improve, particularly in North America around housing. But it's -- look, we're coming off of a very low base of where we were last year. So when we look at the demand, I'm happy with the demand I've seen in 2024 in MDI. But we need to see that continue to get out of the hole that we got into the end of 2022 and 2023.

同樣，這是基於需求持續改善，特別是在北美的住房需求。但你看，我們的基數比去年的基數非常低。因此，當我們審視需求時，我對 2024 年 MDI 的需求感到滿意。但我們需要看到繼續擺脫 2022 年底和 2023 年陷入的困境。

And of course, during that time period, we've also seen capacity additions that have come into the market. So I think all of that offsetting each other as we look into 2025. I'm hopeful that as we kick off 2025 post-Chinese New Year's, start getting in the construction season, hopefully, we'll start to see orders in the February, March time frame start picking up materially.

當然，在此期間，我們也看到市場上出現了產能增加。因此，我認為在我們展望 2025 年時，所有這些都會相互抵消。我希望，隨著 2025 年農曆新年後開始進入施工季節，我們將開始看到 2 月、3 月期間的訂單開始大幅增加。

Great. And a quick follow-up on 2025. I know it's a little bit early to give a specific outlook. A lot of the consultants do see margin expanding quite a bit potentially. Do you sort of agree with that cadence? And what type of EBITDA potential or power do you think you should see in Polyurethanes if things pick up next year?

偉大的。以及 2025 年的快速追蹤。我知道現在給出具體的展望還為時過早。許多顧問確實認為利潤率有相當大的成長潛力。你同意這樣的節奏嗎？如果明年情況好轉，您認為聚氨酯行業應該看到哪種類型的 EBITDA 潛力或力量？

I think, again, I would agree with that. I mean, as we talked about margin expansion in 2025, a lot of that's going to be predicated again about what sort of demand we see in North America housing. China, we've got to see consumer confidence return. And Europe's just got to see some sort of return to some element of sanity when it comes to a manufacturing policy around energy and so forth. We may well see an improvement in North America because of housing and Asia because of consumer demand. And Europe continues to lag behind.

我想，我會再次同意這一點。我的意思是，當我們談論 2025 年的利潤率擴張時，其中許多內容將再次取決於我們在北美房屋市場中看到的需求類型。在中國，我們必須看到消費者信心的恢復。當談到圍繞能源等的製造業政策時，歐洲必須看到某種程度的理智回歸。我們很可能會看到北美因住房而有所改善，亞洲則因消費者需求而有所改善。而歐洲繼續落後。

I do believe fundamentally that we're seeing a lot of capacity utilization that traditionally has been European based, particularly in automotive and probably a couple of other materials that are moving to the US, that are moving to the Middle East or moving to Asia. So I think that you are seeing a global dislocation from Europe to other regions. And so you might actually see an improvement take place in North America and Asia before you do Europe. So I'm not sure that it's there's necessarily going to be an even tide in all regions simultaneously as we've seen in the past.

我確實相信，從根本上來說，我們看到大量傳統上位於歐洲的產能利用率，特別是汽車產業，可能還有一些其他材料正在轉移到美國、中東或亞洲。所以我認為你正在看到從歐洲到其他地區的全球錯位。因此，在歐洲之前，您實際上可能會看到北美和亞洲發​​生了改善。所以我不確定所有地區是否一定會像我們過去看到的那樣同時出現均勻的潮汐。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

文森安德魯斯，摩根士丹利。

Your prepared comments on autos, well, certainly, it wasn't what you expected. You did seem to grow in the third quarter and you had stable EU volumes. And it also looks like autos were better for you in Polyurethanes versus Advanced Materials. So I wonder if you could just comment on all of that, particularly the EU piece just given how weak that market seemed to be and what the sort of sequential outlook is into the fourth quarter. And maybe a bit into the '25 to the extent you have a view.

您準備好的關於汽車的評論，當然，這不是您所期望的。第三季似乎確實有所成長，且歐盟銷售穩定。而且看起來汽車在聚氨酯方面比先進材料更適合您。因此，我想知道您是否可以對所有這些進行評論，特別是考慮到市場似乎有多疲軟以及第四季度的連續前景如何，歐盟的文章。如果你有觀點的話，也許進入 25 世紀就好了。

This is Phil. Thanks for the question. So auto was 3% up year-on-year as you indicate. It was down 6% sequentially. So we did see a little bit of a slowing during the quarter. If you break down our exposure around the world for auto, which is about 15% of our portfolio. About 40% is into Asia and that's been relatively strong and relatively strong in our Polyurethanes division for us. About 30% into Europe. That slowed a little. And then 20% into North America, 10% rest of the world. And North America definitely did come off as we went through the third quarter and as we head into the fourth quarter here.

這是菲爾.謝謝你的提問。正如您所說，汽車同比增長了 3%。季減 6%。因此，我們確實在本季度看到了一些放緩。如果你細分一下我們在全球的汽車業務，這大約占我們投資組合的 15%。大約 40% 位於亞洲，這對我們的聚氨酯部門來說是相對強勁的。大約30%進入歐洲。那速度慢了一點。然後 20% 進入北美，10% 進入世界其他地區。當我們經歷第三季和進入第四季時，北美確實表現不佳。

I mean, look, we look at the numbers. We have 90 million production builds last year in '23. I think most of the forecast for about 88 million for this year. So a little bit down overall. In general, we're agnostic to whether it's ICE, whether it's PV or whether it's hybrid and are able to pick up sales in -- across either platform. But in general, a little bit slower. But in general, pretty good for us in Asia.

我的意思是，看，我們看數字。去年 23 年我們生產了 9,000 萬台。我認為今年大部分預測為8800萬左右。所以整體來說有點下降。總的來說，我們不知道它是內燃機、光伏還是混合動力，並且能夠在任一平台上增加銷售量。但整體來說還是慢了一點。但總的來說，這對我們亞洲來說相當不錯。

And Peter, if I could just follow up, I'd be curious to get your view on interest rates. I think we all want them to come down. But so far, we haven't seen as much help on the back end of the curve, I think, as people would've hoped for. So if you think -- as you look into '25, if we get to a situation where maybe the front end comes down a lot more than the back end of the curve, where do you think that helps you? And where do you think that maybe slows down the pace of recovery?

彼得，如果我能跟進的話，我很想知道你對利率的看法。我想我們都希望他們下來。但到目前為止，我認為我們還沒有看到人們所希望的那麼多對曲線後端的幫助。因此，如果你認為，當你展望 25 年時，如果我們遇到這樣一種情況，即曲線前端的下降幅度可能比曲線後端的下降幅度要大得多，你認為這對你有什麼幫助？您認為這可能會在哪些方面減緩復甦的步伐？

Well, it's got to be able to hit in both areas. One, it's got to be able to hit on consumer confidence, in consumer spending. And that singularly has been the engine of growth for the US economy. Yes, there are a lot of levers of the US economy. But I believe that the consumer confidence has been probably the biggest differential between Europe, US and Asia has been the US consumer. They continue to spend money on a smaller scale around consumer confidence items, shopping and so forth versus larger scale, which I would consider that to be home buying and as we started -- as Phil mentioned, in automotive, in the -- particularly in the third quarter.

嗯，它必須能夠在這兩個領域發揮作用。第一，它必須能夠打擊消費者支出的信心。這無疑是美國經濟成長的引擎。是的，美國經濟有很多槓桿。但我認為，歐洲、美國和亞洲之間最大的差異可能是美國消費者的信心。他們繼續在消費者信心項目、購物等方面進行小規模的花錢，而不是大規模的花錢，我認為這是購房，正如我們開始的那樣——正如菲爾提到的，在汽車領域— —特別是在第三季。

So again, when you talk about that interest rates coming down and that potential bifurcation between interest rates and mortgage rates, we need one to continue to keep the US consumer stimulated and spending. We need the other one, more importantly, I believe, for our company, mortgage rates need to come down to stimulate housing demand.

因此，當你談到利率下降以及利率和抵押貸款利率之間潛在的分歧時，我們需要一個人來繼續刺激美國消費者和支出。我們需要另一個，更重要的是，我相信，對於我們公司來說，抵押貸款利率需要下降，以刺激住房需求。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

Peter, I saw a news item recently about a chemical company doing a capacity expansion of non-PU-based insulation materials, and they're targeting the European market. And the release read positively about future demand for insulating materials in Europe. Now obviously, as I read the prepared remarks and listened to you so far, didn't seem like there was much to get excited about insulating materials in Europe, which obviously would be very helpful for you. What's your take on that market? And when might we see a recovery there?

Peter，我最近看到一則新聞，說一家化學公司正在擴大非PU基絕緣材料的產能，他們的目標是歐洲市場。該新聞稿對歐洲未來對絕緣材料的需求做出了積極的解讀。顯然，到目前為止，當我閱讀準備好的評論並聽取您的演講時，似乎對歐洲的絕緣材料沒有太多興奮，這顯然對您非常有幫助。您對該市場有何看法？我們什麼時候可以看到那裡的復甦？

To be honest with you, I'm rather frustrated with Europe, as you could probably tell, Frank. In one of the areas where you would think with higher energy prices, Europe would be one of the most proactive areas on legislating construction materials and insulation standards. In reality, virtually every state in the United States has a higher and tougher energy conservation standard than most European countries do.

老實說，我對歐洲感到相當沮喪，弗蘭克，你可能已經知道了。在能源價格較高的地區之一，歐洲將是建築材料和絕緣標準立法最積極的地區之一。事實上，美國幾乎每個州都有比大多數歐洲國家更高、更嚴格的節能標準。

So Europe, when they get their act together and they really want to start looking at how do you conserve as much as -- and put that into an active energy policy, I believe that there's some real upside there. I think that we're sitting in a position. We have blending facilities in Europe where we can make polyurethane spray foam materials. We don't export it from the US. We can make it there. We can utilize our own technologies and our own polyols and so forth. And we've got a real opportunity in Europe.

因此，歐洲，當他們齊心協力，他們真的想開始研究如何節約能源，並將其納入積極的能源政策時，我相信那裡有一些真正的好處。我認為我們已經就位了。我們在歐洲擁有混合設施，可以生產聚氨酯噴塗泡沫材料。我們不從美國出口它。我們可以到達那裡。我們可以利用我們自己的技術和我們自己的多元醇等。我們在歐洲有一個真正的機會。

But without the correct incentives, inducements and regulatory environment, I don't think that we want to see the sort of growth in Europe that we've been able to see in the US.

但如果沒有正確的激勵、誘因和監管環境，我認為我們不想在歐洲看到我們在美國看到的那種成長。

Okay. Very helpful. And in the prepared remarks, there was also comments about looking at possible M&A in Advanced Materials. And given -- obviously, your leverage is kind of elevated, but that's really more so about the kind of the trough or bottoming levels of EBITDA. But given your stock is close to yielding 5%, what are your thoughts on buybacks?

好的。非常有幫助。在準備好的發言中，也有關於考慮先進材料領域可能的併購的評論。顯然，你的槓桿率有所提高，但更重要的是 EBITDA 的谷底或觸底水平。但鑑於您的股票收益率接近 5%，您對回購有何看法？

I'd have to feel -- well, look, first of all, it's a decision that the Board would be making. But my recommendation to the Board is I'd have to feel a little bit more confident about free cash flow coming in and preserving that free cash flow. And right now, I want to make sure that we preserve the dividend. And I speak on behalf of the Board in saying this, I want to make sure we preserve the dividend. We keep a strong balance sheet. We stay focused on our investment-grade ratings. And then when we see an improvement in free cash flow, we'll divvy that up between the potential of share buybacks or M&A.

我必須感覺到——嗯，看，首先，這是董事會將做出的決定。但我向董事會的建議是，我必須對自由現金流的流入和維持自由現金流更有信心。現在，我想確保我們保留股息。我代表董事會發言，我想確保我們保留股息。我們維持強勁的資產負債表。我們繼續關注我們的投資等級評級。然後，當我們看到自由現金流有所改善時，我們會將其分配給股票回購或併購的潛力。

Josh Spector, UBS.

喬許‧斯佩克特，瑞銀集團。

I was curious on Europe. The deal that's kind of apparent between Covestro and ADNOC, kind of has them keeping capacity intact in Europe. Is that an impediment to Europe improving for the MDI market for Huntsman?

我對歐洲很好奇。科思創和阿布達比國家石油公司之間的這筆交易有點明顯，可以讓他們保持歐洲產能完好無損。這是否會成為亨斯邁改善歐洲 MDI 市場的障礙？

I've got -- I'm not -- again, I'm not trying to evade an answer. I just got no idea what ADNOC and Covestro would be planning. I assume that between signing and closing, you're not going to want to do -- no matter what your plans are, you're not going to want to do a whole lot that would antagonize regulators and your labor unions and so forth. So let's keep everything kind of as is. And -- but I'm just speculating at that. So I've -- look, I'd always rather see less capacities than more capacity, all things being equal, but I've got no idea what they're planning to do.

我有──我沒有──再說一遍，我並不是想迴避答案。我只是不知道阿布達比國家石油公司和科思創會計劃什麼。我認為在簽署和結束之間，你不會想做任何事情——無論你的計劃是什麼，你都不會想做很多會激怒監管機構和工會等的事情。所以讓我們保持一切原樣。而且——但我只是猜測。所以我——看，在所有條件相同的情況下，我總是寧願看到更少的容量而不是更多的容量，但我不知道他們打算做什麼。

Yeah, no problem. I think I just thought that there was something where a few years after that would close, something had to stay in place, but I'll move on. I guess maybe sticking with Europe in a different vein. It's just when you've talked about polyurethanes and your earnings power in the past, I think you said when utilization rates are higher, you think maybe a mid-teens margin is what you can achieve.

是的，沒問題。我想我只是認為有些東西幾年後就會關閉，有些東西必須留在原地，但我會繼續前進。我想也許會以不同的方式堅持歐洲。只是當您過去談論聚氨酯和您的盈利能力時，我想您說過，當利用率較高時，您認為也許可以實現十幾歲左右的利潤率。

I guess with your commentary around demand, US and China versus Europe it seems like Europe would probably lag and also costs are higher. So I guess the question is, can you achieve that framework if Europe costs stay higher or maybe there isn't any industrial change, would you have a different answer around Huntsman's earnings power?

我想根據您對需求、美國和中國與歐洲的評論，歐洲可能會落後，而且成本也更高。所以我想問題是，如果歐洲成本保持在高水準或可能沒有任何產業變革，您能否實現該框架，您對亨斯邁的獲利能力會有不同的答案嗎？

I'd like to think that whatever is lost in Europe can be made up in Asia and North America. I think if Europe continues on the path that it is now, it's going to have a higher cost structure than the Americas and Asia. And if we see demand, if we see particularly downstream demand where we have excess splitting capacity in North America and China, in both of those locations, this may well give us a greater opportunity to move more production downstream, particularly in China, and earn more per pound in those regions to offset any uncompetitive structure that might exist in Europe.

我認為歐洲所失去的一切都可以在亞洲和北美得到彌補。我認為，如果歐洲繼續沿著現在的道路發展，它的成本結構將比美洲和亞洲更高。如果我們看到需求，如果我們看到特別是下游需求，我們在北美和中國都擁有過剩的分裂能力，這很可能會給我們一個更大的機會，將更多的生產轉移到下游，特別是在中國，並賺取利潤這些地區每磅的價格更高，以抵消歐洲可能存在的任何缺乏競爭力的結構。

But I think until the reality of the market hits and pricing hits and global trade hits, it's -- I'm just speculating at this point. But I don't believe that fundamentally that there's been any sort of major shift in those dynamics.

但我認為，在市場、定價和全球貿易受到衝擊之前，我目前只是在猜測。但我從根本上不認為這些動態發生了任何重大轉變。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Aleksey Yefremov，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Peter, I wanted to ask you about pricing in MDI. In prepared remarks, you say you don't have much exposure to spot. But I also recall traditionally you don't have much exposure to contract as well as a big chunk of your business tied to just raw materials pass-through. Can you just explain what's the current state of your sort of leverage to contract -- benchmark contract pricing for MDI that we can observe in North America?

彼得，我想問你有關 MDI 定價的問題。在準備好的發言中，您說您沒有太多接觸現場的機會。但我還記得傳統上，您沒有太多的合約風險，也沒有很大一部分業務與原材料傳遞相關。您能否解釋一下您的合約槓桿的當前狀態是什麼——我們在北美可以觀察到的 MDI 基準合約定價？

Yeah, I think -- well, I'll just touch on all three regions. So I consider -- and I don't want to oversimplify this, but -- so forgive me. But let's just put it in kind of three buckets. One is how much is just spot, and that's what you oftentimes will read in ICEs or these sort of publications. The other one is going to be around formula pricing, and the other one, around, I would say, variable pricing, which is going to be -- MDI is more than just three buckets of pricing. That variable pricing, depending on if it's pure MDI or if it's a formulated product or whatever, it's going to be all over the place.

是的，我想——好吧，我將談論所有三個地區。所以我認為——我不想過於簡化，但是——所以請原諒我。但讓我們把它分成三個桶子。一是有多少是現貨，這就是您經常在 ICE 或此類出版物中讀到的內容。另一個是圍繞公式定價，另一個是圍繞可變定價，我想說的是，MDI 不僅僅是三類定價。這種可變定價，取決於它是純 MDI 還是配方產品或其他什麼，它將無處不在。

So if you look at spot materials, it's typically around 10% Europe, 10% Europe and about 40% in China. As you look at formula pricing, it's around 20% of our total volume globally. That's going to be preponderantly in North America is going to be around 40%. And in Europe, it will be lesser than that. In China, it will be lesser than that. And then that third bucket on the variable side, that's what's coming out of the splitter, for the most part, or into formulations or into pure MDI. That pricing is going to be on a contract. It's going to be on a customer by customer. Very little of that is going to be throughput pricing. And that's just -- that's going to be on a negotiated basis customer to customer.

因此，如果你看一下現貨材料，通常歐洲佔 10% 左右，歐洲佔 10%，中國佔 40% 左右。從配方定價來看，它約占我們全球總銷售量的 20%。這將主要集中在北美，約為 40%。而在歐洲，這數字將低於這個數字。在中國，這個數字會更低。然後變數側的第三個桶，大部分是從分流器中出來的，或進入配方或進入純 MDI。該定價將包含在合約中。這將是一個接一個的客戶。其中很少涉及吞吐量定價。這只是——這將是在客戶與客戶協商的基礎上進行的。

So that's kind of the three buckets I do think people have a tendency probably to read too much into published pricing. I think it's probably a good macro indicator but you just got to remember that MDI, unlike ethylene, benzene or some of the other chemicals that are traded, the pricing of which is regional and it is all over the place.

因此，我確實認為人們可能傾向於對公佈的定價進行過多解讀，這就是這三個方面。我認為這可能是一個很好的宏觀指標，但你必須記住，MDI 與乙烯、苯或其他一些交易化學物質不同，其定價是區域性的，而且到處都是。

Very helpful, Peter. In your automotive polyurethanes business, I mean, it appears that European OEMs are losing share. These are some -- traditionally some of your best customers, right, biggest customers in PU. How are you addressing this sort of sea change in the auto world? How are you changing your strategy in terms of going after sort of the emerging OEMs in China and elsewhere?

非常有幫助，彼得。我的意思是，在汽車聚氨酯業務中，歐洲原始設備製造商似乎正在失去份額。這些是一些——傳統上是你們最好的客戶，對的，PU 最大的客戶。您如何應對汽車世界的這種巨大變化？在追趕中國和其他地方的新興原始設備製造商方面，您將如何改變您的策略？

Well, I think -- fortunately, we have very strong regional platforms in the US, Europe and Asia. I think these regional platforms are probably getting stronger and stronger with Asia. It used to be just probably four years ago, five years ago, we made more money in European auto than we did in our -- than we did the other two regions combined.

嗯，我認為——幸運的是，我們在美國、歐洲和亞洲擁有非常強大的區域平台。我認為這些區域平台在亞洲可能會變得越來越強大。大約四年前、五年前，我們在歐洲汽車業賺的錢比我們在歐洲汽車業賺的錢還要多——比我們在其他兩個地區賺的錢總和還多。

Today, that can be said about Asia. The relationships that we have with Asian, ASEAN, anything from a Hyundai in Korea to a BYD in China and so forth, the relationship and the applications, not just in traditional applications like seating, but also now with more EVs into the sound insulation, in the materials, into the batteries and so forth.

今天，亞洲也可以這樣說。我們與亞洲、東協、從韓國的現代到中國的比亞迪等等的關係和應用，不僅在座椅等傳統應用中，而且現在隨著越來越多的電動車進入隔音領域，在材料、電池等方面。

As we look at Asia, we make more money even though that's only 40% of our global automotive businesses in Asia. We make more money in Asia than we do in the rest of the world, the other regions combined. So I think that we're -- as we look at our automotive business, it continues to be very stable for us. But again, I think under the water, there are a lot of very fast-moving currents between ICE and EV, between Europe and Asia, US and the rest of the world. And the global trades are going to continue to, I think, move very rapidly in those areas as we look where the Chinese EV markets are doing in Latin America and so forth.

放眼亞洲，我們賺的錢更多，儘管亞洲只占我們全球汽車業務的 40%。我們在亞洲賺的錢比在世界其他地區賺的錢還要多，以及其他地區的總和。所以我認為，當我們審視我們的汽車業務時，它對我們來說仍然非常穩定。但我再次認為，在水下，內燃機和電動車之間、歐洲和亞洲、美國和世界其他地區之間存在著許多非常快速移動的水流。我認為，當我們觀察中國電動車市場在拉丁美洲等地區的表現時，這些領域的全球貿易將繼續快速發展。

But rest assured that -- and I think we have very good platforms to address EV and ICE and to address the regional formations. And that's how we've been organized and will continue to be organized.

但請放心，我認為我們有非常好的平台來解決電動車和內燃機以及區域組織問題。這就是我們的組織方式，並將繼續如此。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

So firstly, you mentioned your Splitter before on the contract by contract base. I believe earlier in the year, you said that the new Geismar Splitter, wasn't really adding any EBITDA so far. So where do we stand right now? Has it started contributing? And if not, why is that? And what should we expect for 2025 on the splitter?

首先，您之前在合約基礎上提到過您的 Splitter。我相信今年早些時候，您說過新的 Geismar Splitter 到目前為止並沒有真正增加任何 EBITDA。那我們現在處於什麼位置呢？已經開始貢獻了嗎？如果不是，那是為什麼呢？2025 年我們對分路器有何期待？

Yeah, Sal. So we obviously brought the splitter investment up at Geismar. What really needs to happen to get the full benefits of that splitter is a return from a consumer perspective on areas such as furniture. Auto needs to be quite a bit stronger in North America as well. And some of our adhesives and coatings, some of which ends up on the consumer side, and that really needs to be a lot stronger in order to benefit substantially from that splitter investment. We still expect that to happen over time. That's not the issue. It's all around timing. It's all around the consumer confidence that Peter spoke about.

是的，薩爾。因此，我們顯然在 Geismar 進行了分光器投資。要充分發揮分離器的優勢，真正需要的是從消費者的角度回歸家具等領域。汽車在北美也需要變得更強大。我們的一些黏合劑和塗料，其中一些最終到達了消費者方面，它們確實需要變得更強，才能從分流器投資中大幅受益。我們仍然期望隨著時間的推移這種情況會發生。那不是問題。這一切都圍繞著時機。這一切都圍繞著彼得所談到的消費者信心。

If you think about next year, maybe $10 million to $15 million year-on-year benefit. But that's really dependent upon how our furniture market develops, how automotive develops as well as how adhesive and coatings develop.

如果你考慮明年，可能會帶來 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元的年收益。但這實際上取決於我們的家具市場如何發展、汽車如何發展以及黏合劑和塗料如何發展。

Okay. Perfect. And I also wanted to check a little bit on the Chinese end market, especially because I guess there's a stock and the new stimulus measures. But they don't really necessarily seem to probe the new housing market. If anything, they seem to be incentivizing new construction to boost, I guess, existing home stock prices. So when we think about your MDI and Polyurethanes business there, can you talk a little bit about your end markets and how they differ versus your US and European business?

好的。完美的。我還想了解中國終端市場，特別是因為我猜有股票和新的刺激措施。但他們似乎不一定要探索新的房地產市場。如果說有什麼不同的話，我想，他們似乎正在激勵新建房屋，以提振現有房屋的股價。因此，當我們考慮您在那裡的 MDI 和聚氨酯業務時，您能否談談您的終端市場以及它們與您的美國和歐洲業務有何不同？

Well, I think in China, we are -- again, we see a very much -- a very fast-growing automotive market, and that's an area of benefit for us. We're pretty small there in residential housing. Again, it's a growing market for us. When you look at the insulation side of it and the building material side of it and so forth. Consumer spending has been rather anemic in China. We also spend -- or also sell quite a bit in the large infrastructure projects, when you think about central heating, central insulation, water, road maintenance, pipeline maintenance and so forth, electrical build-out infrastructure. That's obviously in some of the other areas outside of polyurethanes as well.

嗯，我認為在中國，我們再次看到了一個非常快速成長的汽車市場，這對我們來說是一個有利的領域。我們在住宅區的規模很小。同樣，這對我們來說是一個不斷成長的市場。當你觀察它的絕緣面和建築材料面等等時。中國的消費者支出相當疲軟。當你想到中央暖氣、中央絕緣、供水、道路維護、管道維護等電力擴建基礎設施時，我們還在大型基礎設施項目上投入或出售相當多的資金。顯然，聚氨酯以外的其他一些領域也是如此。

But as we look at those large projects that are going across China, we continue to see a lot of demand in that. So for us, infrastructure spending, automotive are both very good right now as we look in Asia. We're seeing some good growth in the Asian markets in our adhesives, coatings, elastomers market. But again, as we look into 2025, hopefully, we start to see some recovery in the housing market in China. And that will obviously be the catalyst for furniture, appliances, a lot of consumer spending and so forth. And that kind of just has that knock-on effect. But it's going to be -- as I said in my earlier comments, it's going to be a slow and gradual recovery in this area in China.

但當我們審視那些正在中國各地進行的大型計畫時，我們仍然看到了極大的需求。因此，對我們來說，從亞洲來看，基礎設施支出和汽車支出目前都非常好。我們看到亞洲市場的黏合劑、塗料、彈性體市場出現了良好的成長。但同樣，當我們展望 2025 年時，希望我們開始看到中國房地產市場出現一些復甦。這顯然將成為家具、電器、大量消費者支出等的催化劑。這會產生連鎖反應。但正如我在先前的評論中所說，中國這一領域將緩慢而漸進地復甦。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities.

約翰·羅伯茨，瑞穗證券。

Peter, since it's election day, do you think Trump versus Harris win will have any impact on Huntsman?

彼得，既然是選舉日，你認為川普對哈里斯的勝利會對亨斯邁產生什麼影響嗎？

No, not really. I mean, as I look, it's definitely going to be Donald Trump versus Donald Trump. I mean, I think 80% of the people voting are probably either voting for or against Donald Trump. So it will really be interesting to see which Donald Trump wins or loses the election. But as you kind of come out, I think both candidates, when you really look at it, have pretty similar views, that housing needs to be something that is going to be a major catalyst to keep the US economy going in '25 and beyond.

不，不是真的。我的意思是，據我觀察，這肯定是唐納德·川普與唐納德·川普之間的較量。我的意思是，我認為 80% 的投票者可能要么投票支持唐納德·川普，要么投票反對唐納德·川普。因此，看看唐納德·特朗普誰贏得或輸掉選舉真的很有趣。但正如你所言，我認為兩位候選人，當你真正審視它時，都有非常相似的觀點，即住房需要成為保持美國經濟在 25 年及以後繼續發展的主要催化劑。

Tariffs and trade surprisingly, as much as the rhetoric that's been going along both lines Trump put in a number of tariffs. And I'm not sure that Biden change any of those tariffs over the last four years. And energy conservation is probably going to be very high on both of their lists. So I think housing tariffs, energy conservation, probably pretty common between the two. I think there's a split on obviously regulation and how the Chevron ruling and so forth, how that actually impacts our industry corporate taxes, the IRA and carbon tax and so forth. There's some real differences on that.

關稅和貿易令人驚訝，儘管川普在這兩個方面都提出了多項關稅。我不確定拜登在過去四年中是否改變了任何關稅。節能可能在他們的兩個清單中都佔據非常高的位置。所以我認為住房關稅和節能在兩者之間可能很常見。我認為明顯的監管以及雪佛龍的裁決如何影響我們行業的企業稅、愛爾蘭共和軍和碳稅等方面存在分歧。這方面確實存在一些差異。

And unfortunately, I don't think either candidate is beginning to address the 900-pound gorilla in the room, which is our national debt which is, for the first time, exceeding our GDP. And that's in spite of a GDP growing as rapidly as it has the last couple of years. So I don't see any -- either one of them materially changing the outcome of our business plan here over the course of the next year or so.

不幸的是，我認為兩位候選人都沒有開始解決房間裡的 900 磅重的大猩猩問題，這是我們的國債，首次超過了我們的 GDP。儘管國內生產毛額的成長速度與過去幾年一樣快，但情況還是如此。所以我沒有看到任何一個——其中任何一個都會在明年左右的時間內實質地改變我們這裡的商業計劃的結果。

Okay. And then maybe a little bit more lower-level question, but have you set your turnaround plans yet for 2025?

好的。然後可能是較低的問題，但您是否已製定 2025 年的周轉計劃？

I believe that we have -- I'm not sure that I have that right in front of us. I think that the one that we do have on the docket is at the end of the first quarter, I believe, we've got what we call the cluster turnaround. It's been called a whole variety of things involving the word cluster. But as you look at Rotterdam, our site there, there's four, five very large chemical plants that all come down at the same time.

我相信我們已經——我不確定我是否已經把它擺在我們面前。我認為我們確實在第一季末完成了工作，我相信我們已經實現了所謂的集群週轉。它被稱為涉及詞簇的各種事物。但當你看看鹿特丹，我們在那裡的工廠，有四、五個非常大的化工廠同時倒塌。

None of us can operate until the last one -- when the first one shuts down, the last one starts up. And so we maybe have -- we may have a record turnaround maintenance timing and be set and ready to go when somebody's got a small leak in a pipeline somewhere and delays everything by a week or two. But right now, that is one that we're planning for at the end of the first quarter of next year.

我們誰都不能操作直到最後一個——當第一個關閉時，最後一個啟動。因此，我們可能有——我們可能有創紀錄的周轉維護時間，當有人在某處管道出現小洩漏並延遲一兩週時，我們就做好了準備。但現在，我們計劃在明年第一季末實現這一目標。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic Global。

Peter and Phil. Not to bore you guys, but just wanted to go back to a bunch of the questions that were asked about the European restructuring is going on, assets being put up for sale and the like. I mean, look, one of the virtues, obviously, of the polyurethane sort of story has been, it's obviously an oligopoly, right? And if I heard your comments correctly, it sounds as if you're leaning towards at least some of these assets being permanently shut down.

彼得和菲爾.不是為了讓你們感到厭煩，而是想回到關於歐洲正在進行的重組、出售資產等問題。我的意思是，你看，聚氨酯類故事的優點之一顯然是，它顯然是寡占，對嗎？如果我沒聽錯你的評論，聽起來你似乎傾向於永久關閉其中至少一些資產。

So my question, I guess, is that looking at the Covestro deal, and I obviously understand a different company and the like, you have no idea what ADNOC is thinking. But I mean, how do you think about players like ADNOC, other sort of state players or Asian players coming out buying up those assets and fragmenting and otherwise relatively consolidated industry?

所以我想我的問題是，看看科思創的交易，我顯然了解另一家公司之類的，你不知道ADNOC在想什麼。但我的意思是，您如何看待阿布達比國家石油公司、其他類型的國有企業或亞洲企業等企業收購這些資產並分割和其他相對整合的行業？

Well, yeah, Hassan, it's a very good question, a very complicated one in many sense. I'm not sure that ADNOC really changes the dynamics. I mean, you're just having the name of one company, Covestro, being changed to another one, ADNOC. If they decide to build in the Middle East or if they decide to build a new facility, I mean, you're probably looking at anywhere from six to eight years away between the -- in the time that it would take to build a facility somewhere, even if it's in addition to an existing site, given the opposition that you see in large-scale chemical production and so forth.

嗯，是的，哈桑，這是一個非常好的問題，從很多意義上來說都是一個非常複雜的問題。我不確定阿布達比國家石油公司是否真的改變了動態。我的意思是，您只是將一家公司的名稱“Covestro”更改為另一家公司的名稱“ADNOC”。如果他們決定在中東建設，或者決定建造一個新設施，我的意思是，你可能會考慮六到八年後的任何地方——在建造設施所需的時間內考慮到您在大規模化學生產等方面看到的反對，即使它是在現有站點之外的某個地方。

So I'm really not sure that -- unless you saw a splintering that took place of a company, I'm not sure that the whole ADNOC-Covestro deal really changes those dynamics any.

所以我真的不確定——除非你看到一家公司發生了分裂，否則我不確定整個阿布達比國家石油公司與科思創的交易是否真的會改變這些動態。

Fair enough, fair enough. And a question around inventories. Obviously, the last couple of years since COVID has been quite complex. I'm just trying to sort of figure out how one should think about a potential inventory restocking. I mean, going back to the COVID times, it seems demand patterns changed dramatically because of lockdowns and the like. But it also seems now corporates' appetite for holding inventory has changed as well.

夠公平，夠公平。還有一個關於庫存的問題。顯然，自新冠疫情爆發以來的過去幾年情況相當複雜。我只是想弄清楚人們應該如何考慮潛在的庫存補貨。我的意思是，回到新冠疫情時代，由於封鎖等原因，需求模式似乎發生了巨大變化。但現在企業持有庫存的胃口似乎也改變了。

So how does one think about a restock in light of some of these demand sort of pulls and tugs vis-a-vis maybe potentially companies' sort of thought processes about sort of keeping inventories lean and maybe sort of moving in that direction. I mean, how does one think about a potential restock with all these sort of moving parts?

那麼，鑑於這些需求的拉動和拉動，人們如何看待補貨，而公司可能會考慮保持庫存精簡，並可能朝這個方向發展。我的意思是，人們如何看待所有這些類型的活動部件的潛在補貨？

Well, we came out of -- an excellent question, Hassan. We came out of COVID obviously with the supply chain busted in many areas around the world. And I think that there was a -- capital was relatively cheap and companies had large amounts of inventory while demand was strong, inventories were very high. And people thought as they typically do during these sort of times that these things are going to continue forever. I think that when you look at the environment today, it's 180 degrees difference.

嗯，我們提出了一個很好的問題，哈桑。顯然，我們已經擺脫了新冠疫情，全球許多地區的供應鏈都陷入了癱瘓。我認為資本相對便宜，公司擁有大量庫存，而需求強勁，庫存非常高。人們認為，就像他們在這種時期通常所做的那樣，這些事情將永遠持續下去。我認為當你看今天的環境時，這是180度的差異。

Capital now is king. It's expensive. People don't want to tie inventory up or capital up. Demand seems to be anemic in a lot of areas of the world. So why keep a lot of inventory? And until I see demand picking up, there's no point in restocking. And on top of all that, in spite of conflicts in the Middle East and so forth, energy prices have been relatively flat for the last -- well, I shouldn't say flat. They've been relatively stable over the course of the last year or so. And you haven't seen a terribly volatile market that way.

現在資本為王。它很貴。人們不想佔用庫存或資金。世界許多地區的需求似乎疲軟。那為什麼要保留大量庫存呢？在我看到需求回升之前，補充庫存是沒有意義的。最重要的是，儘管中東等地區發生了衝突，但能源價格在過去一段時間裡相對持平——好吧，我不應該說持平。在過去一年左右的時間裡，它們一直相對穩定。而且你還沒看過如此劇烈波動的市場。

So until there's genuine demand in a particular region, I'm not sure that there's going to be widespread restocking. I will predict though that if and when that does happen, the chemical industry usually needs a lot more time to build up our supply. If you, all of a sudden, you saw interest rates drop and all of a sudden housing takes off in North America, these are supply chains that typically take a quarter or two to get going. And that's usually what causes prices, which normally would gradually go up over a four, five quarter time period. All of a sudden, it spikes up in one or two quarters. So there's usually a mismatch between how quickly that restocking and panic buying takes place and the actual catalyst that causes that.

因此，在特定地區出現真正的需求之前，我不確定是否會大規模補貨。但我預測，如果這種情況真的發生，化學工業通常需要更多的時間來建立我們的供應。如果你突然看到北美的利率下降和房地產突然起飛，這些供應鏈通常需要一兩個季度才能啟動。這通常是導致價格的原因，價格通常會在四、五個季度的時間內逐漸上漲。突然間，它在一兩個季度內飆升。因此，補貨和恐慌性購買發生的速度與導致這種情況的實際催化劑之間通常存在不匹配。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫，垂直研究夥伴。

Peter, can you speak to how you see international trade flows today in MDI and perhaps maleic anhydride and how they might evolve if tariffs were to escalate in that scenario bilaterally between?

Peter，您能否談談您如何看待當今 MDI 和馬來酸酐的國際貿易流量，以及如果雙邊關稅在這種情況下升級，它們可能會如何演變？

Yeah. I think they'll probably remain pretty much the way they are today. The US has about a 30% tariff, give or take a few points, on MDI and on maleic and a number of other products. And so your -- those people that are importing in today, I don't see tariffs going up through the roof. I don't see them disappearing or necessarily coming off. Depending on some recently filed cases in certain products and so forth, you might see them go up a bit.

是的。我認為他們可能會保持今天的樣子。美國對 MDI、馬來酸和許多其他產品徵收約 30% 的關稅（略有差別）。因此，對於今天進口的人來說，我不認為關稅會大幅上漲。我不認為它們會消失或必然脫落。根據最近提交的某些產品等的一些案例，您可能會看到它們上升。

But largely with the exception of Wanhua in China that has all the production in China, with the exception of a single European site, they're obviously moving product around the world. They have for years and they'll continue to do so. But the trade flows from most of the producers of MDI that have regional production, I see that as continuing. And there's not a great deal of trade flow in MDI from one region to the next. I would say the same is probably true with maleic and with most of the other products we produce.

但在很大程度上，除了中國的萬華公司所有的生產都在中國進行之外，除了一個歐洲工廠之外，他們顯然正在將產品轉移到世界各地。他們已經這樣做了很多年，並將繼續這樣做。但我認為，來自大多數具有區域性生產的 MDI 生產商的貿易流量仍在持續。而且 MDI 從一個地區流向下一個地區的貿易量並不大。我想說馬來酸和我們生產的大多數其他產品可能也是如此。

I would say the exception of that with maleic would be what you see in China. There is quite a lot of overcapacity in China for maleic. That was supposed to be the raw material for a biodegradable plastic that's coming on stream a little bit slower than I think most people anticipated. But nonetheless, some of that maleic is spilling over into Europe. But other than that, I think most products are staying within region.

我想說的是馬來酸的例外是你在中國看到的。中國馬來酸產能嚴重過剩。這本來應該是可生物降解塑膠的原料，但它的投產速度比我認為大多數人預期的要慢。但儘管如此，其中一些負面情緒正在蔓延到歐洲。但除此之外，我認為大多數產品都停留在該地區。

Mike Harrison, Seaport Research Partners.

麥克·哈里森，海港研究夥伴。

You mentioned some new business wins in North America Polyurethanes. I was wondering, I guess, if you can speak to specifically what markets those are occurring in? And if they are in construction, can you maybe just talk about your competitive position within construction and insulation markets? Has that improved compared to a few years ago? Maybe also wrap in an update on spray foam insulation adoption today versus a few years ago.

您提到了北美聚氨酯領域的一些新業務。我想，您能否具體談談這些發生在哪些市場？如果他們在建築領域，您能否談談您在建築和絕緣市場中的競爭地位？與幾年前相比，情況有改善嗎？也許還包括與幾年前相比，當今噴塗泡沫隔熱材料採用的更新。

Yeah. In construction, it's mostly -- and I would say in the kind of three buckets, if you will. One is going to be what we see in the OSB into the wood market that goes into construction, what we see in insulation going into construction. I think that in both of those positions, we have very stable positions, and positions -- we're not just selling molecules, but we're also selling solutions to the customers. The third area, I would say, would also be in furniture and appliances and so forth.

是的。在建築領域，如果你願意的話，我會說是三桶。其中之一是我們在木材市場中看到的 OSB 進入建築領域，以及我們在建築隔熱材料中看到的情況。我認為在這兩個職位上，我們都有非常穩定的職位，而且職位——我們不僅銷售分子，而且還向客戶銷售解決方案。我想說，第三個領域也是家具和電器等。

While we don't supply a lot of material that goes into appliances and some of the low-end furniture applications, others do. And it sucks a lot of MDI out of the market that goes into that kind of third bucket of construction. Oftentimes, when we focus on construction, we're talking about OSB. But construction and housing also takes up a lot of MDI in other areas that aren't necessarily big markets for Huntsman, but are for others. And it's a good drain for the product generally.

雖然我們不提供大量用於電器和一些低端家具應用的材料，但其他公司卻提供。它從市場上吸走了大量 MDI，這些 MDI 進入了第三類建築領域。通常，當我們專注於建築時，我們談論的是定向刨花板。但建築和住房在其他領域也佔據了大量 MDI，這些領域不一定是亨斯邁的大市場，但對其他領域來說卻是大市場。一般來說，這對產品來說是一個很好的引流。

Right. And then within Performance Products, can you talk a little bit or give us an update on the performance amines capacity expansion? I believe there are two projects going on, one for semiconductor applications and the other one in polyurethane catalysts. Are those in qualification right now and you guys are working to get some offtake in place? Just wondering when we can expect to see some commercial contribution from those two projects?

正確的。然後在性能產品方面，您能談談或給我們介紹一下性能胺產能擴展的最新情況嗎？我相信有兩個項目正在進行中，一個用於半導體應用，另一個用於聚氨酯催化劑。那些人現在已經獲得資格了嗎？只是想知道我們什麼時候可以看到這兩個項目的商業貢獻？

We're hoping to have the polyurethane catalyst business and the amines expansion in [Pétfürdo], Hungary. We believe that, that project should be done around year-end, and then you're looking for a couple of months for qualifying those materials to be going into various applications and so forth. And we are completed with our other performance products expansion. That's going to ultra-pure solvents and amine products will be going into the cleaning and the treatment of chip production, and we're in qualifying phases right now with those materials. That project is done, is operating. And as we get those products qualified, there's not a given time on that. Usually, it's anywhere from three to nine months on those. And we started that process this past summer. So I would say early next year that we ought to start seeing some revenues coming in from the ultrapure amines production.

我們希望在匈牙利[Pätfärdo]擁有聚氨酯催化劑業務和胺業務擴張。我們認為，該專案應該在年底左右完成，然後您需要花費幾個月的時間來驗證這些材料是否可以進入各種應用程式等等。我們已經完成了其他性能產品的擴展。超純溶劑和胺產品將用於晶片生產的清潔和處理，我們目前正處於這些材料的資格階段。該項目已完成，正在運作。當我們讓這些產品合格時，沒有特定的時間。通常，這些時間為三到九個月。去年夏天我們就開始了這個過程。所以我想說，明年初我們應該會開始看到一些來自超純胺生產的收入。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

阿倫‧維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

I guess I just wanted to ask a little bit more about what you see in '25. So both first half and second half of '24, you're around $200 million or so of EBITDA, in that range, maybe a little bit higher. But as you look into '25, I mean, would you say that you took extra inventory out in Q4 or parts of '24 such that you're kind of lean and ready to really grow substantially in a recovery scenario? Or do you see '25 kind of evolving similar to what you saw in '24?

我想我只是想多問一點關於你在 25 年所看到的情況。因此，24 年上半年和下半年，EBITDA 約為 2 億美元左右，在這個範圍內，可能會高一點。但當你審視25 年時，我的意思是，你會說你在第四季度或24 年的部分時間裡拿出了額外的庫存，這樣你就可以精簡並準備好在復甦的情況下真正大幅增長嗎？或者你認為「25」的演變與你在「24」中看到的類似嗎？

We have seen some emerging weakness in auto, industrial and aero. And so I'm just wondering if you would require more destocking in certain of those areas or your customers would, or if you're more poised for -- to really leverage a recovery?

我們看到汽車、工業和航空領域出現了一些新的弱點。因此，我只是想知道您是否需要在某些領域或您的客戶需要更多去庫存，或者您是否更願意真正利用復甦？

Yeah. I think that as we look at the overall business today, our inventories, are low and they're going to be low and lean going into 2025. And I just don't think it's our responsibility to be building up inventories as a cushion for our customers. We'll have sufficient product to supply them. But at the same time, I'm going to kind of tie up our capital and hoping that they eventually come about to buy the materials.

是的。我認為，當我們審視今天的整體業務時，我們的庫存很低，而且到 2025 年，庫存將保持在低水準且精實。我只是認為我們沒有責任建立庫存作為客戶的緩衝。我們將有足夠的產品來供應他們。但同時，我將佔用我們的資金並希望他們最終能夠購買這些材料。

As we look at automotive, again, I think that we'll probably see a pretty flat US, Europe sort of environment. And I think that we're going to continue to see strong demand coming out of Asia and China, in particular, and the rest of the world. So much of this is, again, predicated upon what I see as the major drivers. North America is going to be around housing. China -- the areas where I see -- where you can see material growth, it's going to affect our bottom line, and that's going to be around housing in North America. It's going to be on consumer confidence in China.

當我們再次審視汽車產業時，我認為我們可能會看到美國、歐洲的環境相當平坦。我認為我們將繼續看到來自亞洲和中國，尤其是世界其他地區的強勁需求。同樣，這很大程度上取決於我所認為的主要驅動因素。北美將圍繞住房展開。中國——我所看到的地區——你可以看到物質成長，這將影響我們的利潤，而這將涉及北美的房屋市場。這將取決於中國消費者的信心。

And eventually it's going to see a resurgence of European GDP and European spending just across the board. And again, I see more opportunities for that to happen. There seems to be a pent-up demand right now, particularly in housing in North America, as many people have been speculating about this now for the last couple of years. And I would say the same also with China. Since the COVID lockdowns have ended in China, we really haven't seen consumer confidence and consumer spending return to China. And I think there's quite a bit of catalyst and opportunity for growth on that.

最終，歐洲國內生產毛額和歐洲支出將全面復甦。我再次看到了更多實現這一目標的機會。目前似乎存在著被壓抑的需求，特別是在北美的住房方面，因為過去幾年許多人一直在猜測這一點。對於中國我也這麼說。自從中國的新冠疫情封鎖結束以來，我們確實還沒有看到消費者信心和消費支出回歸中國。我認為這有相當多的催化劑和成長機會。

But as we go into 2025, we're going to be taking costs out of our business, we're going to have low inventories, and we're going to be running very lean.

但當我們進入 2025 年時，我們將降低業務成本，我們的庫存將降低，並且我們將非常精益營運。

And if I could just clarify, so the move maybe from Q3, $130 million or so of EBITDA down to $75 million at the midpoint for Q4, how much of that would you characterize? Is that mostly seasonality? Or has there been some -- I imagine there could be some incremental demand weakness in there as well. Or would you say that's mostly seasonality? And is there any like related inventory clearing out charges that are kind of embedded in there as well?

如果我能澄清一下，那麼，EBITDA 可能會從第三季的 1.3 億美元左右下降到第四季中點的 7500 萬美元，您會描述其中的多少？這主要是季節性的嗎？或者是否存在一些——我想那裡也可能存在一些增量需求疲軟。或者你會說這主要是季節性的？是否也包含類似的相關庫存清理費用？

Yeah. There'll be some inventory charges in that number that will be kind of reversal to the benefit that we saw in Q3. But most of this is going to be seasonal and just seasonal slowness. Now again, if we don't see that seasonal slowness, there might be some upside here.

是的。該數字中將會產生一些庫存費用，這將與我們在第三季看到的收益發生逆轉。但其中大部分都是季節性的，而且只是季節性的放緩。現在，如果我們沒有看到季節性放緩，這裡可能會有一些好處。

I would personally -- we typically always see seasonal slowness in the fourth quarter. There's been one or two fourth quarters in the last 15 years, we haven't seen that. But I think given where we are today, I think we feel pretty confident about our fourth quarter numbers. As we kind of get in here to the end of the year, we look at the stimulus that's taking place in China. We look at the rate cuts around housing and that housing stock as I mentioned earlier, and I think as we also look at the MDI capacity utilization continuing to improve.

我個人認為，我們通常總是會在第四季看到季節性放緩。過去 15 年裡有一兩個第四季度，我們還沒有看到這種情況。但我認為考慮到我們今天的處境，我認為我們對第四季的數字非常有信心。快到年底了，我們來看看中國正在實施的刺激措施。正如我之前提到的，我們關注住房和住房存量的降息，我認為我們也關注 MDI 產能利用率的持續改善。

I think going into 2025, personally, I have a lot more optimism than I do pessimism. The cost actions that we've taken in the past year-on-year, our SG&A is flat in spite of over the last 12 to 18 months, multi-decade-long inflationary highs. And we continue to have a very strong balance sheet. And so if I look at these positives going to 2025, Arun. I have a lot more optimism than I do pessimism.

我認為進入 2025 年，就我個人而言，我的樂觀情緒比悲觀情緒多得多。儘管在過去 12 至 18 個月中通膨處於數十年來的高位，但我們去年採取的成本行動與去年同期相比，我們的銷售、管理和管理費用持平。我們仍然擁有非常強勁的資產負債表。因此，如果我看看 2025 年的這些積極因素，阿倫。我的樂觀情緒比悲觀情緒多很多。

And operator, why don't we take one more question because I think we're coming to the top of the hour here.

接線員，我們為什麼不再回答一個問題呢，因為我想我們現在已經到了最重要的時刻了。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

This is Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. So I was seeing that the Boeing strike just ended, and I think you mentioned that strike was a $3 million to $4 million EBITDA headwind in the quarter. So if it ends today or ends within the next couple of days, does that, I mean, provide upside? Or how does that kind of flow through to you guys for Q4 and beyond?

我是勞倫斯的丹·里佐。我看到波音的罷工剛剛結束，我想你提到罷工為本季帶來了 300 萬至 400 萬美元的 EBITDA 阻力。因此，如果它在今天結束或在接下來的幾天內結束，我的意思是，這是否會帶來好處？或者說，在第四季及以後，你們是如何看待這種情況的？

Well, I'd love to see it affect that quickly. But you can only make a plane, having had the opportunity to tour Airbus and Boeing and Chinese manufacturers. You only make a plane as fast as the slowest component and the slowest part arrives. And so you might go into some of these manufacturing sites, you'll see a lot of our inventory is sitting in wings that are waiting to go on planes. The planes are being delayed because they're waiting for $50 fasteners to arrive to be able to put seats in and so forth.

嗯，我很樂意看到它迅速產生影響。但你只能製造一架飛機，有機會參觀空中巴士、波音和中國製造商。你只能按照最慢的部件和最慢的部件到達時的速度來製造飛機。因此，您可能會進入其中一些製造工廠，您會看到我們的許多庫存都在等待登機。飛機延誤是因為他們正在等待價值 50 美元的緊固件到達才能安裝座位等等。

So I would assume, given the problems that we've seen in the aerospace supply chain, where more and more of the construction of an airplane that's now being subbed out to third parties. This is -- the strike will not necessarily be back to normal in a week or two. I think we'll be lucky to get back -- things back up in line and going by the end of the year. Again, that's not to say that -- I'm not saying anything about what Boeing's production is going to be.

因此，考慮到我們在航空航太供應鏈中看到的問題，我認為越來越多的飛機製造工作現在被轉交給第三方。這是——罷工不一定會在一兩週內恢復正常。我想我們會很幸運能夠回來——一切都恢復正常並在年底前恢復正常。再說一次，這並不是說——我並沒有透露波音的生產情況。

I am saying that by the time Boeing gets things up and moving, our demand starts picking up, the customers that we supply, the customers who then subsequently supply Boeing, by the time that hits us, it's probably going to be closer to year-end than it is today.

我是說，當波音公司開始行動時，我們的需求開始回升，我們供應的客戶，隨後供應波音的客戶，到我們受到打擊時，可能會接近一年——比今天結束。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，我們感謝您的參與。