Huntsman Corp (HUN) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Huntsman Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

問候。歡迎參加亨斯邁公司 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Ivan Marcuse, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Mr. Marcuse, you may now begin.

現在，我將把會議交給投資者關係和企業發展副總裁 Ivan Marcuse。馬爾庫塞先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Huntsman's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. Joining us on the call today are Peter Huntsman, Chairman and CEO and President; and Phil Lister, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，羅布，大家早安。歡迎參加亨斯邁 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天加入我們電話會議的還有董事長兼執行長兼總裁 Peter Huntsman；和菲爾·利斯特（Phil Lister），執行副總裁兼財務長。

Yesterday, on February 21, 2024, after the U.S. equity markets closed, we released our earnings for the fourth quarter of 2023 via press release and posted to our website, huntsman.com. We also posted a set of slides and detailed commentary discussing the fourth quarter of 2023 on our website. Peter Huntsman will provide some opening comments shortly, and we will then move into the question-and-answer session for the remainder of the call.

昨天，2024 年 2 月 21 日，美國股市收盤後，我們透過新聞稿發布了 2023 年第四季的收益，並發佈在我們的網站 Huntsman.com 上。我們還在我們的網站上發布了一組討論 2023 年第四季的幻燈片和詳細評論。彼得·亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman) 很快就會發表一些開場評論，然後我們將進入電話會議剩餘時間的問答環節。

During this call, let me remind you that we may make statements about our projections and expectations for the future. All such statements are forward-looking statements, and while they reflect our current expectations, they involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. You should review our filings with the SEC filings for more information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections and expectations.

在這次電話會議中，讓我提醒您，我們可能會就我們對未來的預測和期望發表聲明。所有此類陳述均為前瞻性陳述，雖然它們反映了我們當前的預期，但它們涉及風險和不確定性，並且不能保證未來表現。您應該查看我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與這些預測和預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。

We do not plan on publicly updating or revising any forward-looking statements during the quarter. We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss and free cash flow. You can find reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, which has been posted to our website, huntsman.com.

我們不打算在本季公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述。我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入或虧損以及自由現金流。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表，該報告已發佈在我們的網站 Huntsman.com 上。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter Huntsman, our Chairman, CEO and President.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的董事長、執行長兼總裁彼得‧亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman)。

Ivan, thank you very much. Thank you for joining us this morning. Last evening, we released our prepared remarks for the fourth quarter 2023 results. Before opening the call to questions, I'd like to take a few minutes and share with you our latest plans and views as we enter the second half of the first quarter.

伊万，非常感謝你。感謝您今天早上加入我們。昨晚，我們發布了準備好的 2023 年第四季業績評論。在開始提問之前，我想花幾分鐘時間與大家分享我們在進入第一季下半年時的最新計劃和觀點。

At the outset, I remind you that we have complete financial results for the month of January, but still have 2 more months until we know the full results of the first quarter. I'm also still a bit haunted by the ghosts of a year ago when many of you and most companies were projecting 2023 to have a weak beginning but a very strong second half, second half proved to be nothing short of a disaster.

首先，我提醒大家，我們已經有了 1 月份的完整財務業績，但距離我們了解第一季的全部業績還有 2 個月的時間。我對一年前的陰影感到有點困擾，當時你們中的許多人和大多數公司都預計 2023 年會有一個疲軟的開局，但下半年卻非常強勁，事實證明下半年簡直就是一場災難。

Let me begin by sharing with you our 5 main goals for this year. First, we will be -- this will be a year wherein we will recover some lost sales from 2023. A year ago, we showed strong pricing discipline early in the year and in many cases, we held the line and kept pricing from falling faster than they otherwise would have. In some cases, we lost business to competition who are pushing volume over value.

首先讓我與大家分享我們今年的 5 個主要目標。首先，今年我們將恢復 2023 年以來的一些銷售損失。一年前，我們在年初表現出了強有力的定價紀律，在許多情況下，我們堅守陣地，防止價格更快下跌比他們本來會擁有的。在某些情況下，我們的業務輸給了那些推崇銷售而非價值的競爭者。

Going forward, we will be pushing much needed price increases in most of our product ranges, but we will also be negotiating to get back some of that lost volume. Our second priority would be to improve our free cash flow generation. This will be at the top of our incentive pay targets for 2024. We will do this through a continued focus on working capital controlling both indirect and direct costs and moving more volume and higher prices.

展望未來，我們將推動大多數產品系列急需的價格上漲，但我們也將進行談判以收回部分損失的銷售。我們的第二個優先事項是改善我們的自由現金流產生。這將是我們 2024 年激勵薪酬目標的首要目標。我們將透過持續關注營運資本、控制間接和直接成本以及提高銷售和提高價格來實現這一目標。

Our third priority is to maintain discipline in our cost structure. We will complete our previously announced cost reduction programs in each of our divisions and our corporate functions. We will also be focused on offsetting projected 3% to 4% inflation increases. Our fourth priority will be to continue as we have for the past several years, assessing our portfolio on an ongoing basis to ensure that we are the best owners for the businesses and assets that we have.

我們的第三個優先事項是維持成本結構的紀律。我們將在每個部門和公司職能部門完成之前宣布的成本削減計劃。我們還將重點關注抵消預計的 3% 至 4% 的通膨增長。我們的第四個優先事項將是繼續像過去幾年一樣，持續評估我們的投資組合，以確保我們是我們所擁有的業務和資產的最佳所有者。

We will continue to look for M&A opportunities to expand our more differentiated downstream businesses. Lastly and most importantly, we will invest to continue improving our environmental and safety stewardship and our operating reliability. This focus on managed risk will also apply to our investment-grade balance sheet. Our Board of Directors remains committed to returning cash and value to our shareholders. To this end, we will be raising our dividend by 5% a share to $0.25 a quarter. While we do not plan to buy back any shares in the first quarter, we look forward to restarting our buyback program as soon as market conditions warrant.

我們將繼續尋找併購機會，拓展更具差異化的下游業務。最後也是最重要的是，我們將投資繼續改善我們的環境和安全管理以及我​​們的營運可靠性。這種對管理風險的關注也將適用於我們的投資等級資產負債表。我們的董事會仍然致力於向股東返還現金和價值。為此，我們將把每股股息提高 5%，達到每季 0.25 美元。雖然我們不打算在第一季回購任何股票，但我們期待在市場條件允許的情況下盡快重新啟動我們的回購計畫。

As I said at the beginning, it is still too early in the quarter to make bold predictions. However, the order patterns that I'm seeing in most areas of the world tells me that in most of our divisions, we have seen the end of a very long period of inventory drawdowns and prices and volumes look to be gradually improving. With the restarting of China's economy post New Year celebrations, I feel more optimistic than I did at year-end and see more proverbial green shoots than I have over the past 12 to 18 months. We have a lot of recovery before us, but I believe we're taking the right steps in the right direction.

正如我在開頭所說，在本季做出大膽預測還為時過早。然而，我在世界大多數地區看到的訂單模式告訴我，在我們的大多數部門，我們已經看到很長一段時間的庫存削減已經結束，價格和銷售似乎正在逐漸改善。隨著中國經濟在新年慶祝活動後重新啟動，我比年底時感到更加樂觀，也比過去 12 至 18 個月看到了更多眾所周知的復甦跡象。我們面前還有很多恢復工作，但我相信我們正在朝著正確的方向採取正確的步驟。

Thank you very much. And with that, operator, why don't we open the line up for any questions.

非常感謝。那麼，接線員，我們為什麼不開放隊列來回答任何問題呢？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自富國銀行的麥克·西森（Mike Sison）。

Peter, volumes in polyurethane seem to have stabilized a bit in the fourth quarter. How do you think volumes sort of unfold in the first quarter? Or are you -- you had sort of mentioned that order patterns look a little bit better. And then when do you think we can see an inflection point for growth in '24?

彼得，第四季聚氨酯銷量似乎穩定。您認為第一季的銷售量如何？或者您—您曾提到訂單模式看起來更好。那麼您認為我們什麼時候可以看到 24 年的成長轉折點？

Well, I think that, again, you're going to continue to see a gradual improvement throughout the first quarter, both in pricing and in volume. When I look at it on a prior year basis, I would imagine we'll probably be seeing an improvement in the first quarter, again, just looking at order patterns today and so forth. Probably around mid-single digit sort of growth. And that's going to be pretty much across the board. We're looking for growth to take place as we've seen the cessation of deinventoring in North America around housing and construction. And in China, we continue to see a bit of a rebound in construction, but mostly in automotive and mostly as we look at infrastructure projects. And in Europe, well, I think we'll just see a continued gradual recovery across the board in Europe.

嗯，我認為，在整個第一季度，您將繼續看到定價和銷售方面的逐步改善。當我以去年為基礎查看時，我想我們可能會在第一季看到改善，再次，僅查看今天的訂單模式等等。可能會出現中等個位數的成長。這幾乎是全面的。我們正在尋求成長，因為我們已經看到北美圍繞住房和建築業的去庫存已停止。在中國，我們繼續看到建築業出現一定程度的反彈，但主要是汽車業和基礎設施項目。在歐洲，我認為我們將看到歐洲持續全面復甦。

Got it. And then if volumes do recover, what do you think needs to happen to shore up sort of either pricing or profitability and maybe give us a thought on what the Polyurethane segment should be able to do longer term in terms of sort of margins and earnings power?

知道了。然後，如果銷售確實恢復，您認為需要採取什麼措施來支撐定價或盈利能力，也許可以讓我們思考聚氨酯細分市場在利潤率和盈利能力方面應該能夠做些什麼？

Well, I think MDI, I've not seen anything structurally that has changed in MDI. This is a mid- to upper teen sort of business during its normalized basis. And when you see MDI capacity utilization, usually somewhere in the mid- to upper 80s, particularly the upper 80s, pushing 90%, you're going to see pricing power. I think the industry today globally is somewhere in the low 80s percent capacity utilization with a little bit of an improvement over what we've seen in previous quarters.

嗯，我認為 MDI，我沒有看到 MDI 中有任何結構上的變化。在其正常化的基礎上，這是一種中上層青少年的業務。當你看到 MDI 產能利用率（通常在 80 年代中上層，特別是 80 年代上層）達到 90% 時，你會看到定價能力。我認為當今全球該行業的產能利用率處於 80% 的低水平，與我們在前幾個季度看到的情況相比略有改善。

I remind you that the last quarter, we were talking about global operating rates being probably in the mid (technical difficulty) so we are seeing a bit of an uptake there. And -- but we need to see sustainability. Again, last year, at this time, we were talking about a stronger second half of the year and so forth. And I think that what's going to be important this time or this year is that we just see a long steady recovery in volume and allowing us to recover the pricing as well. And I would say that across the board in virtually all of our products, not just MDI.

我提醒您，上個季度，我們談論的全球營運率可能處於中間（技術難度），因此我們看到了一些成長。而且——但我們需要看到永續性。同樣，去年的這個時候，我們正在談論下半年的強勁表現等等。我認為這次或今年重要的是我們看到銷售的長期穩定復甦，並使我們能夠恢復定價。我想說的是，幾乎我們所有的產品都是如此，而不僅僅是 MDI。

Our next question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Josh Spector。

This is James Cannon on for Josh. Just looking at -- you called out volumes down again, against a weaker year-over-year comp. I was wondering, is there any impact from the ongoing BLR rationalization? Or is that pretty much done at this point?

我是詹姆斯·坎農 (James Cannon) 替約什 (Josh) 發言。只是看看——你指出銷量再次下降，而同比比較疲軟。我想知道正在進行的 BLR 合理化是否有任何影響？或者現在已經基本完成了嗎？

No, I don't think that we've seen any impacts from BLR rationalization. I mean, in our case, we're seeing a little bit of fluctuation in order patterns on aerospace and so forth. But I wouldn't say that any of those are really material trends. A lot of that's just going to be timing on year-end inventory and as you look at something like aerospace or in automotive, how many parts are in the OEM supply chain or car companies shifting from EVs to hybrids to ICE and yes, that will cause some disruption on a quarterly basis. But I don't see anything in advanced materials that would give me any concern about order patterns or sales.

不，我認為我們沒有看到 BLR 合理化的任何影響。我的意思是，就我們而言，我們看到航空航天等領域的訂單模式出現了一些波動。但我不會說這些都是真正的物質趨勢。其中許多都取決於年終庫存，當你看看航空航天或汽車等領域時，原始設備製造商供應鏈中有多少零件，或者汽車公司從電動汽車轉向混合動力汽車再到內燃機汽車，是的，這將是每個季度都會造成一些幹擾。但我在高級材料中沒有看到任何會讓我擔心訂單模式或銷售的內容。

If you think about it, less than 10% of our Advanced Materials portfolio now is BLR. We've deselected an awful lot over the years focused on the higher margin businesses, and that generates less than 5% of the profit. It's not our focus from a portfolio perspective.

如果你仔細想想，我們的先進材料產品組合現在只有不到 10% 是 BLR。多年來，我們已經取消了許多專注於利潤率較高的業務，而這些業務所產生的利潤不到 5%。從投資組合的角度來看，這不是我們的重點。

Okay. And then just on the aerospace, there was an incident earlier in the quarter that led to the FAA limiting production at the major aircraft manufacturer. Is there any impact on the first quarter guide from that?

好的。在航空航太領域，本季早些時候發生了一起事件，導緻美國聯邦航空局限制這家主要飛機製造商的生產。這對第一季指南有什麼影響嗎？

No, no. And I would just remind you go through that thing, we didn't have anything to do. I mean our products and so for that had nothing to do with that manufacturing problem that Boeing had. So no, I don't -- as we look at it overall, we don't see any impact in the first quarter because of that.

不，不。我只是想提醒你經歷那件事，我們沒什麼好做的。我的意思是我們的產品與波音公司的製造問題無關。所以不，我不認為——從整體上看，我們認為第一季不會因此受到任何影響。

Yes. And if you think about it, our exposure is in general into wide-body aircraft into the relevant aircraft, it's less than 5%. So it's again, for any recovery that we have, it's all focused on the wide-body material that we sell into that end market.

是的。如果你想想，我們對寬體飛機的接觸一般是在相關飛機上，不到5%。因此，對於我們的任何復甦，這一切都集中在我們向終端市場銷售的寬體材料上。

Our next question is from the line of John Roberts with Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·羅伯茨（John Roberts）和瑞穗銀行（Mizuho）。

You decided that you're going to restart your smaller Geismar unit. Maybe it didn't sound like that was maybe quite justified yet. Maybe that should come a little bit later, but maybe you can talk about where you think that volume is going to go.

您決定重新啟動較小的 Geismar 裝置。也許這聽起來還不太合理。也許應該晚一點，但也許你可以談談你認為銷量將會走向何方。

Yes. That's -- I'd remind you, it's 130,000 tons of volume, roughly 250 million pounds. And so we're looking at that sort of volume being a relatively small percent increase in the overall scheme of things. I would just say, too, that as we look at restarting that, it does take you time to restart an asset like this probably could take as long as throughout the entire quarter going into the second quarter.

是的。我想提醒你的是，它的體積為 13 萬噸，大約 2.5 億磅。因此，我們認為這種數量在總體方案中只增加了相對較小的百分比。我也想說，當我們考慮重新啟動時，重新啟動這樣的資產確實需要時間，可能需要整個季度進入第二季的時間。

Second quarter is usually a pretty strong demand for OSB, CWP, insulation, our building materials. And just because we're operating in that line, it doesn't mean that we're going to put all 130,000 tons into the market on day 1. That will gradually be fed into the market as the market needs it and so forth. But we -- looking at today's order patterns, what we're hearing from our customers and so forth, we feel that we need to start that asset up.

第二季通常對 OSB、CWP、絕緣材料和我們的建築材料的需求相當強勁。僅僅因為我們在這條線上運營，並不意味著我們將在第一天將所有 13 萬噸投入市場。這些將根據市場需求等情況逐漸投入市場。但我們 - 看看今天的訂單模式，我們從客戶那裡聽到的消息等等，我們認為我們需要啟動該資產。

And john, we've been operating globally at between 75% to 80%, the market is in the low 80s. So that should give you some indication that we're simply moving up to the market levels.

約翰，我們的全球營運率一直在 75% 到 80% 之間，市場處於 80 年代初。因此，這應該會給您一些指示，表明我們只是正在上升到市場水平。

And then is the Boeing situation affecting your epoxy supply chain at all?

那麼波音的情況是否會影響您的環氧樹脂供應鏈呢？

No, we're not seeing any issues today on that. What noise, I would remind you that we're supplying our customers that then supply Boeing or in some cases, our customers supply an OEM that supplies Boeing and what impact that may have if Boeing were to slow down production and so forth. We may not feel it for a quarter or 2. But no, I don't see any reason today. We're certainly not seeing anything that would impact that.

不，我們今天沒有看到任何問題。什麼噪音，我想提醒您，我們正在向我們的客戶供貨，然後再向波音供貨，或者在某些情況下，我們的客戶向向波音供貨的原始設備製造商供貨，以及如果波音放慢生產速度等可能會產生什麼影響。我們可能一兩個季度都感覺不到。但不，我今天看不出任何原因。我們當然沒有看到任何會影響這一點的事情。

Our next question is from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Peter, just on MDI, what would it take to return to mid-cycle operating rates in MDI? And is there a path forward to a peak later in this decade?

Peter，就 MDI 而言，如何才能讓 MDI 恢復到中期開工率？是否有辦法在本十年晚些時候達到頂峰？

I think that as we look at -- we kind of look at the 3 regions. I think that as we look at the U.S. housing market, I think that a recovery in housing to be at that 1.5 million to 1.7 million kind of where we were just a few years ago, which I think is still well below the 2 million level that people are saying is kind of a sustainable rate. If we look at housing, that recovery of housing. And I think, again, it's -- what was really painful over the last 1.5 years was the deinventorying that took place. It wasn't necessarily a housing drop to 900,000 units or something like we saw during the great recession. It was a massive amount of deinventorying that took place and how much inventory within the system when that deinventorying started.

我認為，當我們審視時，我們關注的是這三個地區。我認為，當我們審視美國房地產市場時，我認為住房復甦將達到幾年前 150 萬至 170 萬套的水平，我認為這仍遠低於 200 萬套的水平人們說這是一種可持續的速度。如果我們看一下住房，那就是住房的復甦。我再次認為，過去 1.5 年真正痛苦的是庫存去化。這不一定是住房數量下降到 90 萬套，或者像我們在大衰退期間看到的那樣。發生了大量的去庫存，以及當去庫存開始時系統內有多少庫存。

So I think in North America, it's going to be a lot around housing. I think that as we look at Europe, it's going to be -- excuse me, as we look at Asia, it's going to be around continued pull that in automotive, for us, both ICE and particularly EV have been very strong end markets for us in urethanes in China. China continues to improve as we have pointed out in the last couple of quarters that it would. But we're certainly not seeing from an overall macro point of view. The 5%, 6% growth that we've seen in past years. So I think that's going to be important. And then Europe, I think Europe is going through, particularly in Germany, something of a deindustrialization right now. And I think Europe needs to find incentive courses to -- do they want to continue this insanity that they're going through or do they want to really have policies and priorities that are going to encourage manufacturing and where they're going to be going in that area.

所以我認為在北美，很多事情都圍繞著住房。我認為，當我們審視歐洲時，請原諒，當我們審視亞洲時，這將是汽車行業的持續拉動，對我們來說，內燃機，特別是電動汽車一直是非常強大的終端市場我們在中國的聚氨酯。正如我們在過去幾個季度所指出的那樣，中國正在繼續改善。但我們肯定不是從整體宏觀角度來看。過去幾年我們看到了 5%、6% 的成長。所以我認為這很重要。然後是歐洲，我認為歐洲，尤其是德國，目前正在經歷某種程度的去工業化。我認為歐洲需要找到激勵措施——他們是否想要繼續他們正在經歷的這種瘋狂，或者他們是否想要真正制定政策和優先事項來鼓勵製造業以及他們將走向何方在那個地區。

But Europe for us in building materials, insulation, lightweighting, automotive and so forth, those are -- some of those are doing fairly well right now. We're seeing a gradual recovery in automobiles and so forth, insulation, but we need to see more coming out of Europe. So again, I think all of those indicators are going in the right direction right now gradually, some faster than others. We just need to see it sustainably keep moving in that area.

但歐洲對我們來說在建築材料、絕緣材料、輕量化、汽車等方面，其中一些現在做得相當好。我們看到汽車等絕緣材料逐漸復甦，但我們需要看到更多來自歐洲的產品。再說一次，我認為所有這些指標現在都在逐漸朝著正確的方向發展，其中一些指標比其他指標更快。我們只需要看到它在該領域可持續地繼續前進。

No, very helpful. And just how should we think about the ramp in earnings from Q1 to Q2 for the total company?

不，非常有幫助。我們該如何看待整個公司從第一季到第二季的獲利成長？

I'm sorry, the ramp of earnings in Q1, Q2 for the entire company?

抱歉，整個公司第一季、第二季的獲利成長情況如何？

Yes, the ramp from Q1 to Q2 EBITDA for the company.

是的，公司 EBITDA 從第一季到第二季的成長。

Again, I think that, that will be a factor of what we see in continued growth and pricing discipline largely across the board. But we would assume that as we continue to see an improvement in demand and improvement in pricing, that we'll see an improvement in earnings as well.

我再次認為，這將是我們在很大程度上看到持續成長和定價紀律的因素。但我們假設，隨著我們繼續看到需求的改善和定價的改善，我們也會看到收益的改善。

Yes. We're not going to guide to Q2 right now. Dave, we've got the Q1 guidance, but we would expect a seasonal improvement as you move into the higher construction time period.

是的。我們現在不打算指導第二季。戴夫，我們已經得到了第一季的指導，但隨著您進入更高的施工時間段，我們預計季節性會有所改善。

Our next question comes from the line of Aleksey Yefremov with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Just to piggyback on the last question, in your polyurethane segment, you're expecting better margins in the first quarter. Should we think about that level of MDI margins in Q1 as sort of the baseline for '24 or could those margins dip again in Q2 because we now see benzene rising, for example, maybe you won't have enough pricing. But do you feel comfortable that at the very least, that Q1 level of MDI margins would not slip lower?

就最後一個問題而言，在聚氨酯領域，您預計第一季的利潤率會更高。我們是否應該將第一季的MDI 利潤率水準視為24 年的基線，或者這些利潤率是否會在第二季度再次下降，因為我們現在看到苯價格上漲，例如，也許您將沒有足夠的定價。但您是否認為至少第一季 MDI 利潤率水準不會下滑？

Well, I'd like to say that we have that much control in pricing for the entire year and that we have that good a forecasting. But as we look at -- and I'm focused right now as to how Q1 is ending and how Q2 is going to be starting. And as I look right now at some of the broader indicators, Europe were out with a price increase effective March 1 of EUR 250. These are public announcements of EUR 250 a ton, Chinese -- on the post New Year's, which ended just this past week, we've seen a pretty strong demand, both in volume and in pricing that's been publicly reported of around $150 a ton. In the U.S. we'll be pushing for $400 a ton price improvement in HBS now in our Huntsman Building Solutions.

嗯，我想說的是，我們對全年的定價有很大的控制權，我們有很好的預測。但正如我們所看到的，我現在關注的是第一季將如何結束以及第二季將如何開始。正如我現在看到的一些更廣泛的指標，歐洲已於 3 月 1 日起將價格上漲至 250 歐元。這些是中國在新年後宣布的每噸 250 歐元的價格上漲，剛結束過去一周，我們看到需求相當強勁，無論是數量或價格，公開報道的價格約為每噸150 美元。在美國，我們現在將在亨斯邁建築解決方案中推動 HBS 價格提高 400 美元/噸。

We also have some formula pricing in the U.S., and we'll be pushing for other price increases as well that are not public. So across the board. Now a lot of that's going to be setting the last couple of days. We've seen benzene continue to be quite volatile. And we've got to make sure that our prices stay above the wave of raw material price movements. But by and large, we're finishing first quarter in a much stronger position than we started first quarter on a pricing basis. And I would say that, again, some of that improvement, that optimism, I talked about in my prepared remarks at the very beginning, literally, we've seen that really starting to come just in the last couple of days. We see some of the actions that have taken place in China and so forth. So again, some good optimism going into the second quarter. I feel like it feels we've got the wind in our sales. But again, we've -- unfortunately, we've...

我們在美國也有一些公式定價，我們也將推動其他非公開的價格上漲。所以全面。現在很多事情將在過去幾天發生。我們發現苯的波動性仍然很大。我們必須確保我們的價格保持在原物料價格波動之上。但總的來說，我們在第一季結束時的定價地位比第一季開始時要強得多。我想說，我在一開始準備的演講中談到了一些改進和樂觀，從字面上看，我們已經看到在過去幾天裡真正開始出現。我們看到中國已經採取的一些行動等等。同樣，第二季也出現了一些樂觀情緒。我覺得我們的銷售勢頭強勁。但不幸的是，我們再次...

On Europe specifically, do you...

特別是在歐洲，你...

Yes. Pardon?

是的。赦免？

Yes, Aleksey.

是的，阿列克謝。

In Europe, specifically, do you see any benefit from lower imports of material from Asia in either polyurethanes or Performance Products?

具體來說，在歐洲，您認為聚氨酯或高性能產品中從亞洲進口的材料減少有什麼好處嗎？

I think we'd always be happy to see fewer imports than more just as a rule of thumb. So yes, I think that would be the case, yes.

我認為，根據經驗，我們總是樂於看到更少的進口而不是更多的進口。所以是的，我認為情況就是這樣，是的。

Yes. I mean we've seen a little bit of a slowdown, Aleksey. If you look at where we are today in February versus quarter 4 in terms of imports from Asia just because of the Red Sea, you'll get as good as ours as to how temporary that actually is.

是的。我的意思是，我們已經看到了一些放緩，阿列克謝。如果你看一下我們今天 2 月與第四季僅因紅海問題從亞洲進口的情況，你會發現這實際上是暫時的。

Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Arun Viswanathan。

This is Adam on for Arun. Looking into second and third quarter, looking at polyurethanes and wondering other than some of the items you've just outlined, what might you think are some of the upside drivers beyond seasonality for that segment?

這是亞當（Adam）替補阿倫（Arun）。展望第二和第三季度，除了您剛剛概述的一些項目之外，您還想知道聚氨酯除了季節性因素外還有哪些上行驅動因素？

I believe it's going to just be a continued growth in demand, stability in raw material prices and discipline and finished product pricing. It's just getting back to the basic fundamentals. A little bit of restocking would also help. I think that inventories are very low. And throughout polyurethanes as well, we'll be completing our cost savings program throughout 2024.

我相信這將是需求的持續成長、原材料價格的穩定以及紀律和成品定價。這只是回到了基本原理。補充一點點庫存也會有所幫助。我認為庫存非常低。對於聚氨酯，我們將在 2024 年完成成本節約計畫。

So we'll see some of the benefits that have fallrn to the bottom line.

因此，我們將看到一些已經落入底線的好處。

Great. And looking at Ag and aiming destocking, when do you think some of the negative impacts from that might start to subside?

偉大的。考慮到農業和去庫存，您認為由此產生的一些負面影響什麼時候可能會開始消退？

I'm sorry, the destocking around what?

抱歉，去庫存是圍繞什麼？

Ag chemicals and aiming specifically?

銀化學品和具體目標？

Yes. I think we're -- we feel that most of the destocking -- at least what we're seeing in our amines products we're not that exposed to agricultural products and chemicals. So I don't want to comment on anything on the Ag side more just out of -- we're just not exposed that much there. So I really don't track that. But with most of our amines, as we look again, as we look at the volume improvements that we're seeing quarter-on-quarter I think that we've seen the vast majority of the destocking that's taking place there has come to an end.

是的。我認為我們 - 我們認為大部分去庫存 - 至少我們在胺產品中看到的，我們沒有那麼暴露於農產品和化學物質中。所以我不想對農業方面的任何事情發表評論，只是因為我們在那裡沒有太多的接觸。所以我真的不跟踪它。但對於我們的大多數胺，當我們再次觀察時，當我們看到季度環比的銷量改善時，我認為我們已經看到那裡正在發生的絕大多數去庫存已經達到了結尾。

Our next question is from the line of Kevin McCarthy with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究夥伴的 Kevin McCarthy。

Peter, I wanted to come to the 5 goals that you outlined at the top of the conversation. And I was particularly intrigued by your fourth point of assessing the portfolio, making sure you're the best owner for all of your assets, et cetera. Obviously, we've seen some significant divestitures over the last 5 years or so. Do you have in your mind potential to part with any businesses that are bigger than a bread box? Or are you referring to maybe potential for more surgical changes in the portfolio? Maybe any updated thoughts on where you'd like to drive the portfolio from here would be helpful.

彼得，我想談談您在談話開頭概述的 5 個目標。我對你評估投資組合的第四點特別感興趣，確保你是所有資產的最佳所有者，等等。顯然，我們在過去五年左右的時間裡看到了一些重大的資產剝離。您是否有可能放棄任何比麵包盒還大的企業？或者您指的是投資組合中可能進行更多手術改變的可能性？也許任何關於您希望從這裡推動投資組合的最新想法都會有所幫助。

Yes. I think that we need to just continue to look at the entire portfolio. I think that we'd be a real disservice to our shareholders if we said that we want to stay exactly what we are today forever. And as we look at those areas of the business that are particularly impacted by higher energy costs in Europe, I think that we need to step back and we need to ask ourselves, how do we structure those businesses for the next 5 or 10 years or next 20 years, where we're going to be in a competitive position.

是的。我認為我們需要繼續關注整個投資組合。我認為，如果我們說我們想永遠保持今天的樣子，那對我們的股東來說是一種真正的傷害。當我們審視那些特別受歐洲能源成本上漲影響的業務領域時，我認為我們需要退後一步，我們需要問自己，我們如何在未來 5 年或 10 年或未來20年，我們將處於競爭地位。

The markets have changed quite a bit in the last couple of years when it comes to pricing dynamics when it comes to geopolitical shifts and energy policies and so forth. And I think we've got to continuously ask ourselves, are we best positioned to own these assets? Are they in the right places? Do we have the right supply agreements or even partnerships and see where we go from there. But again, I would -- I think it -- I think it'd be the wrong move if we came in one morning and said everything is perfect, and there's no need to look -- if we could trade some of our assets, and obviously, I'm not going to get into which of those assets they'd be. But if you could trade some of those assets for less volatile, higher-margin assets, I know that's a lot easier said than done. But I think we probably have approved some of that over the last couple of years as we've divested of our textile effects in TiO2 and some of the more commoditized intermediate chemicals and so forth, oxides and glycols and so forth. And we bought assets that have been put into our advanced materials, our downstream urethane spray foam businesses. We look at those sort of changes. I'd like to see that going forward.

在過去幾年中，當涉及地緣政治變化和能源政策等定價動態時，市場發生了很大變化。我認為我們必須不斷問自己，我們是否最適合擁有這些資產？他們在正確的地方嗎？我們是否有合適的供應協議甚至合作關係，看看我們將如何發展。但再說一次，我會——我認為——我認為如果我們有一天早上進來並說一切都很完美，並且沒有必要尋找——如果我們可以交易我們的一些資產，那將是錯誤的舉動，顯然，我不會討論它們屬於哪些資產。但如果你可以用其中一些資產換取波動性較小、利潤率較高的資產，我知道說起來容易做起來難。但我認為我們在過去幾年中可能已經批准了其中一些，因為我們已經放棄了二氧化鈦的紡織效果和一些更商品化的中間化學品等，氧化物和二醇等。我們購買的資產已投入我們的先進材料、下游聚氨酯噴塗泡沫業務。我們關注這些變化。我希望看到這一點的發展。

It's really helpful. And then second, Peter, if I may, I wanted to ask about your view on China. I think you made a comment that you're more optimistic today than you were at year-end. Year-end was not too terribly long ago. So I'm just kind of curious, is it to do with a little bit of MDI uplift that you referenced earlier? Or are you seeing other signs in China that are more encouraging to you, more green shoots. Maybe you could elaborate a little bit on the regional outlook there.

這真的很有幫助。第二，彼得，如果可以的話，我想問你對中國的看法。我想你說過你今天比年底更樂觀。年底並不是很久以前的事了。所以我只是有點好奇，這是否與您之前提到的 MDI 上升有關？或者你是否在中國看到了其他更令你鼓舞的跡象，更多的萌芽。也許您可以詳細說明一下那裡的區域前景。

Yes. I'm not sure that my view necessarily have changed all that much. I always get a little bit leary when you go into Chinese New Year because it seems like you come out of it and you're either off to the races or it seems like things shift -- the New Year's ends and things just remain lethargic. That's kind of what we've seen over the last 2 years or so, China struggling through COVID and then a rather lethargic recovery in the last year. I see them coming out of this new year, just in the last week. And again, I don't want to base a whole year on a week of demand and pricing and so forth. But I think what we're seeing in market conditions in real time, Kevin, is we're seeing a better rebound, if you will, after the Chinese New Year than we've seen over the last 2 or 3 years. And this is kind of the China that we were used to a couple of years ago.

是的。我不確定我的觀點是否一定改變了這麼多。當你進入農曆新年時，我總是有點提心吊膽，因為似乎你剛從農曆新年走出來，要么去參加比賽，要么事情似乎發生了變化——新年結束了，事情仍然昏昏欲睡。這就是我們在過去兩年左右所看到的情況，中國在新冠疫情中苦苦掙扎，然後在去年復甦得相當緩慢。我看到他們在上週剛度過了新年。再說一遍，我不想將全年的情況建立在一周的需求和定價等基礎上。但我認為，凱文，我們即時看到的市場狀況是，如果你願意的話，我們在農曆新年之後會看到比過去兩三年更好的反彈。這就是我們幾年前已經習慣的中國。

So again, I'm not saying these guys have changed drastically, but I do think that the pickup that we're seeing in our particular business on EVs, and as we look at some of the demand that is picking up in China, in particular, it feels like it's real and it continues to see a gradual steady improvement.

再說一次，我並不是說這些人已經發生了巨大的變化，但我確實認為我們在電動車的特定業務中看到了回升，當我們看到中國的一些需求回升時，特別是，感覺就像是真實的，並且繼續看到逐步穩定的改善。

And Kevin, for context, about 15% to 20% of our sales are into China and less than 10% into property, which has obviously been the big headline coming out of China and how far that's fallen.

凱文，就背景而言，我們大約 15% 到 20% 的銷售額來自中國，只有不到 10% 的銷售額來自房地產，這顯然是來自中國的頭條新聞，而且這一數字已經下降了多少。

Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自文森特·安德魯斯與摩根士丹利的對話。

This is Turner Hinrichs on for Vincent. I'm wondering if you can walk us through price cost and other considerations underlying your guide and that margins will move higher in the first quarter within Performance Products specifically?

我是特納辛里奇 (Turner Hinrichs) 替補文森特 (Vincent)。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您的指南中的價格成本和其他考慮因素，以及第一季性能產品的利潤率會更高嗎？

Yes. I think that as we look at Performance Products, we continue to see a gradual recovery in the construction markets, that's going to be an improvement from anhydride and the unsaturated polyester resin chain as you kind of move downstream into North America, we'll see volume will be higher in our amines products as well. And that goes into everything from spray foam and we're seeing prices are stable to improving in this business. So yes, I think, again, Performance Products are going to see a gradual improvement, and I hope that, that builds momentum throughout the year.

是的。我認為，當我們關注高性能產品時，我們繼續看到建築市場逐漸復甦，當你向下游移動到北美時，這將是酸酐和不飽和聚酯樹脂鏈的改善，我們會看到我們的胺類產品的產量也會更高。這涉及從噴塗泡沫到所有產品，我們看到該行業的價格穩定並有所改善。所以，是的，我再次認為，性能產品將會逐步改善，我希望這能在全年形成勢頭。

Great. So you've mentioned that you anticipate stronger pricing in the first quarter in polyurethanes. Could you walk us through what you're seeing in each region as it relates to polyurethanes pricing and what you're expecting for underlying supply and demand?

偉大的。因此，您提到您預計第一季聚氨酯價格將會走強。您能否向我們介紹一下您在每個地區看到的與聚氨酯定價相關的情況以及您對基本供需的預期？

Well, again, some of the broader things that we're seeing in China, I would just say that we're seeing around $150 a ton improvement. China, unlike Europe and the U.S. will set a price out. China moves really almost on a daily basis, on your base and more commoditized polyurethanes, your downstream urethane blends and more differentiated urethanes are usually going to follow that macro movement in pricing. But as we see pricing today in China, we see that up around $150 a ton improvement over what we've seen in the past couple of weeks. And as we go to Europe, again, we're out with a $250 a ton improvement in Europe. And again, when I say that, that's not to say that you take all of our volume and put $250 a ton of that. Some of that will be effective March 1. Some of it will be a little bit later than that. Some of it, depending on contracts and so forth and in place, maybe more, maybe less than that $250 but directionally, that's where we see pricing going in the European market. And that obviously is very much needed, particularly in the European market.

好吧，再說一遍，我們在中國看到的一些更廣泛的事情，我想說的是，我們看到每噸價格上漲了 150 美元左右。與歐洲和美國不同，中國會定價。中國幾乎每天都會發生變化，基於您的基礎和更商品化的聚氨酯，您的下游聚氨酯混合物和更具差異化的聚氨酯通常會跟隨價格的宏觀變動。但正如我們今天所看到的，中國的定價比過去幾週每噸上漲了約 150 美元。當我們再次前往歐洲時，我們發現歐洲每噸價格提高了 250 美元。再說一遍，當我這麼說時，並不是說你拿走我們所有的交易量，然後每噸投入 250 美元。其中一些將於 3 月 1 日生效。另一些會比該日期晚一點。其中一些，取決於合約等和到位，可能更多，可能少於 250 美元，但從方向上看，這就是我們在歐洲市場看到的定價方向。這顯然是非常需要的，特別是在歐洲市場。

In the U.S. market, again, we're seeing a number of areas with the splitter that we have in place, we see kind of more of a fragmented base in Europe. We sell a lot internally down through the Huntsman Building Solutions. We have a bunch of our product that's on pricing formulations and so forth. We were able to pass through raw material volatility and increases. And we have some that are just on stand-alone contracts with prices that we negotiate on a quarterly or monthly basis. But we are pushing for a broad price increase on the North American market as well in MDI.

在美國市場，我們再次看到許多地區有分流，而在歐洲，我們看到的基地更加分散。我們透過亨斯邁建築解決方案在內部銷售了許多產品。我們有很多關於定價公式等的產品。我們能夠克服原材料的波動和上漲。我們有一些只是單獨的合同，我們按季度或每月協商價格。但我們正在推動北美市場以及 MDI 的價格大幅上漲。

And to your question on utilization, we still expect it to be in the low 80s in the first quarter. We're not up to the seasonal highs of construction in the second quarter. And as we said earlier, the polyurethane industry really needs to get into that 85%-plus utilization before you see a real inflection point when it comes to supply demand.

至於你關於利用率的問題，我們仍然預計第一季利用率將在 80 左右。我們還沒有達到第二季建設的季節性高點。正如我們之前所說，聚氨酯產業確實需要達到 85% 以上的利用率，才能看到供應需求的真正轉折點。

Our next questions come from the line of Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

You noted that you were maybe seeing some additional opportunities to improve the cost base. And I was just curious, are those additional actions that could be taking place above and beyond the $60 million worth of incremental savings that are part of the restructuring program that's been in place for several quarters? Or were you just saying that there's still some actions that you need to take in order to achieve those incremental savings?

您指出，您可能會看到一些改善成本基礎的額外機會。我只是很好奇，這些額外的行動是否可能超出價值 6000 萬美元的增量節約（這些增量節約是已經實施了幾個季度的重組計劃的一部分）？或者您只是說您還需要採取一些行動才能實現這些增量節省？

Yes, Mike, it's Phil. I think we've guided to approximately $60 million year-on-year. That includes some of the actions that we'll be taking during the course of this year. We are looking at manufacturing efficiency. And honestly, outside of just the cost base, we're looking at working capital as well. I think we're cognizant that in any recovery, working capital, there should typically be an outflow when it comes to cash, and I think there's some more work for us to be done, particularly around inventory days where we can offset some of that. We'll also continue to finish up our European restructuring project as well as a small amount to do there as well. And quite frankly, we still got to make sure that we're offsetting about $50 million to $60 million of inflation every single year.

是的，麥克，我是菲爾。我認為我們的目標是同比大約 6000 萬美元。這包括我們今年將採取的一些行動。我們正在關注製造效率。老實說，除了成本基礎之外，我們還在考慮營運資金。我認為我們認識到，在任何復甦中，營運資金通常都應該出現現金流出，而且我認為我們還有更多工作要做，特別是在庫存天數方面，我們可以抵消其中的一些。我們也將繼續完成我們的歐洲重組項目以及在那裡要做的少量工作。坦白說，我們仍然必須確保每年抵消約 5,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的通貨膨脹。

All right. And then the other question I had is on the MIRALON product line in this pilot plant that's coming online in the next few quarters. Can you talk about the level of interest that you're getting from potential customers? And I guess what needs to happen from a commercial or offtake standpoint before you decide to move forward with construction on that larger scale facility. And then the second piece of that is I apologize if you've already said this, but what could the cost of that 5,000 ton MIRALON facility look like?

好的。我的另一個問題是關於該試點工廠的 MIRALON 產品線，該工廠將在未來幾季上線。您能談談潛在客戶對您的興趣程度嗎？我猜想，從商業或承購的角度來看，在決定繼續建造更大規模的設施之前，需要發生什麼。第二個問題是，如果您已經說過這​​一點，我深表歉意，但是 5,000 噸 MIRALON 設施的成本會是多少？

Well, the 30-ton facility, which would be the largest facility of its type that's producing the carbon nanotube product. This will be the largest facility in the world. We believe it'll have a very competitive cost basis. And the key to this is the lower you can get the cost, the more applications you can get into. We're presently working right now with everything from concrete to car tires, EV batteries and in structural products.

好吧，這個 30 噸的設施將是同類生產碳奈米管產品中最大的設施。這將是世界上最大的設施。我們相信它將具有非常有競爭力的成本基礎。關鍵是您的成本越低，您可以進入的應用程式就越多。我們目前正在研究從混凝土到汽車輪胎、電動車電池和結構產品等各種產品。

Right now, we're able to sell as much as we're able to make of the product, but the product right now to cover the cost of going to very high-end applications into satellites and NASA applications and so forth. As you come up with larger scale capacities, we're going to be able to widen the product availability, the value and the number of applications that would go into. The next phase of that expansion will be taking place next year. We believe that we'll be starting up the 30-ton reactor. We'll be starting it before sometime in the middle part of this year. And we feel that we should have sufficient data from that to initiate the larger expansion, which will be in 2025.

現在，我們能夠銷售盡可能多的產品，但現在的產品可以覆蓋衛星和 NASA 應用等非常高端應用的成本。當您提出更大規模的產能時，我們將能夠擴大產品的可用性、價值和應用數量。下一階段的擴張將於明年進行。我們相信我們將啟動 30 噸的反應器。我們將在今年中期之前啟動它。我們認為我們應該從中獲得足夠的數據來啟動更大規模的擴張，這將在 2025 年進行。

At that point, I think that we're -- that next expansion really is what I would consider to be a commercial size reactor that if you want to go larger than that, you're just putting in multiple reactors of that size. So really coming, I think, to the end of the next year or 2 of being able to seed the product, being able to qualify the material and then being able to mass produce the material at economics that should make this a very -- hopefully, a very successful add-on to the rest of the business.

到那時，我認為我們的下一個擴展確實是我認為的商業規模的反應堆，如果你想變得更大，你只需放入多個該大小的反應堆。所以，我認為，到明年或兩年年底，我們將能夠播種產品，能夠對材料進行鑑定，然後能夠在經濟上大規模生產材料，這應該使這成為一個非常 - 希望，這是對其他業務的非常成功的補充。

In terms of cost, Mike, think about all of that investment that Peter described, the 30 ton, the 5-kiloton in the tens of millions, maybe $30 million to $40 million. It's all contained within the capital program that we've outlined and contained within the $200 million that we've guided for this year's capital program.

就成本而言，麥克，想想彼得描述的所有投資，30 噸、5 千噸的投資是數千萬美元，可能是 3,000 萬到 4,000 萬美元。這一切都包含在我們概述的資本計劃中，並包含在我們為今年的資本計劃指導的 2 億美元中。

Our next question is from the line of Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Fermium Research 的 Frank Mitsch。

Peter, I want to come back to the comment on Performance Products where you indicated that you anticipate a gradual improvement. As I look at that sector, the decline over the past several quarters has been -- wasn't gradual, it was fairly significant. And in fact, the volume declines were pretty horrific between the period of third quarter '22 and third quarter '23, we got back to relatively breakeven here in the fourth quarter. So the question is, obviously, a lot of that has to be destocked. If we're back to a period of underlying demand, why would we not see these double-digit declines on volumes flipped to being double-digit increases on volumes and so forth. Can you help me understand gradual versus something more significant in terms of recovery?

彼得，我想回到對性能產品的評論，您在評論中表示預計會逐步改進。當我觀察該行業時，過去幾季的下降不是漸進的，而是相當顯著的。事實上，22 年第三季和 23 年第三季之間的銷售下降非常可怕，我們在第四季恢復了相對盈虧平衡。所以問題是，顯然，其中很大一部分必須去庫存。如果我們回到潛在需求時期，為什麼我們不會看到銷量的兩位數下降轉變為兩位數的銷售成長等等。您能幫助我了解漸進式恢復與更重要的恢復之間的關係嗎？

Yes. I think that as we look at the amount of restocking that is taking place I believe that when we go back and we look at where the markets were a little over a year ago, we were having a very difficult time fulfilling customer orders. And I think customers, when we started to work through the bottlenecks, customers have very high inventories of our product in their supply chains. And I think that was really across the board, we had trouble getting blowing agents in for our building solutions, our spray foam. We had trouble producing enough amines. When you saw that the boomeranging effect of the economy post COVID, I think that there was -- the supply chains built up too much inventory and there was a concern that there wasn't going to be enough production, there wasn't going to be -- the logistics were not in place and pricing was going to go through the roof. And a lot of our customers almost across the board whether it was an oriented strand board or particle boards or insulation materials, amines, whatever.

是的。我認為，當我們看到正在進行的補貨量時，我相信當我們回顧一年多前的市場情況時，我們在履行客戶訂單方面遇到了非常困難的時期。我認為客戶，當我們開始解決瓶頸時，客戶的供應鏈中我們的產品庫存非常高。我認為這確實是全面的，我們在建築解決方案、噴塗泡沫中使用發泡劑時遇到了困難。我們在生產足夠的胺方面遇到了困難。當你看到新冠疫情後經濟的迴旋效應時，我認為供應鏈累積了太多庫存，人們擔心產量不足，也不會是——物流不到位，價格將會飛漲。我們的許多客戶幾乎都是全面性的，無論是定向刨花板、刨花板還是絕緣材料、胺等等。

I think they built unnecessarily large amounts of inventory. Now when the markets turned, I think that it turned certainly more suddenly and took longer to de-inventory than all of us anticipated or maybe some of us didn't -- anticipated the sort of a drawdown. I don't think so. I mean, I would look across the entire chemical industry. We all hit about the same magnitude at the same time. Maybe off a quarter here and there. Now does the market bounce back at the same magnitude that it came down? I don't believe that it does because I don't think most people today are worried about where they're going to be getting product next quarter, they're seeing prices gradually improving. They're seeing there's plenty of capacity out there.

我認為他們不必要地建立了大量庫存。現在，當市場轉向時，我認為它的轉變肯定比我們所有人預期的更突然，去庫存的時間也比我們所有人預期的要長，或者也許我們中的一些人沒有預期到這種回撤。我不這麼認為。我的意思是，我會縱觀整個化學工業。我們都在同一時間達到了大約相同的震級。也許到處都有四分之一的折扣。現在市場反彈的幅度是否與下跌時的幅度相同？我不相信會發生這種情況，因為我認為今天的大多數人並不擔心下個季度他們將在哪裡獲得產品，他們看到價格逐漸上漲。他們看到那裡有足夠的容量。

Demand isn't going through the roof. And so I think that the recovery or the restocking is going to be gradual, it's going to be throughout the year. And it's not going to take place as fast. I wish it would to some degree. But then again, if it did, Frank, as you know, there'd be a tremendous amount of volatility. If we saw the restocking take place as fast as the destocking, prices margins would go back up and probably collapse just as much. So I hope that there's a little more reason that -- reasoning that goes into this restocking. I think it's going to be gradual, and it's going to be throughout the year.

需求並沒有達到頂峰。因此，我認為復甦或補充庫存將是漸進的，並將貫穿全年。而且它不會發生得那麼快。我希望它能在某種程度上。但話又說回來，弗蘭克，如你所知，如果真的發生了，就會出現巨大的波動。如果我們看到補充庫存的速度與去庫存的速度一樣快，那麼價格利潤率將會回升，甚至可能會同樣大幅下跌。所以我希望這次補貨能有更多的理由。我認為這將是漸進的，並且將貫穿全年。

Understood, understood. You did highlight, obviously, the high cost of benzene, but we've certainly gotten a nice respite on natural gas, not only here in the States, but also in Europe. What's the impact on Huntsman? What can we expect to see with respect to that flowing through the P&L?

明白了，明白了。顯然，您確實強調了苯的高成本，但我們確實在天然氣方面得到了很好的喘息機會，不僅在美國，而且在歐洲。對亨斯邁有何影響？我們可以期望看到損益表中的哪些內容？

Well, I think that you'll see the impact of that throughout the second quarter, a little bit at the end of the first quarter. As you see, again, it's not necessarily natural gas, but it's the hydrogen, it's the CO that is made from natural gas to hydrogen. And obviously, it's a raw material for our utilities and our boilers and so forth. And that will -- some of that will be in real time -- some of it will be in pricing and the impact that will be in the next quarter.

嗯，我認為你會在整個第二季度看到它的影響，在第一季末會有一點影響。正如你所看到的，它不一定是天然氣，而是氫氣，是從天然氣轉化為氫氣的二氧化碳。顯然，它是我們的公用事業和鍋爐等的原材料。這將 - 其中一些將是實時的 - 其中一些將在定價和下一季的影響中。

So again, it's great to see these low prices. I wish we saw the same sort of drop in the European markets. Europe is still about 5x higher in its cost today, but it's natural gas and obviously, China is more based on coal than it is natural gas. That's usually pretty stable and pretty low.

再次強調，很高興看到這些低價。我希望歐洲市場也能看到同樣的下跌。如今歐洲的成本仍然高出約 5 倍，但它是天然氣，顯然，中國更依賴煤炭而不是天然氣。這通常相當穩定且相當低。

Our next questions come from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

我們的下一個問題來自馬修布萊爾和都鐸、皮克林、霍爾特的路線。

Peter, 1 of your 5 goals was to improve free cash flow generation. And in the prepared remarks, list out a few different levers here, things like reduced incentive comp but higher turnaround spend, I think your free cash flow conversion in 2023 was only in like the low-single digits. Do you have a target for 2024 that you could share on free cash flow conversion?

彼得，您的 5 個目標之一是改善自由現金流的產生。在準備好的評論中，列出一些不同的槓桿，例如減少激勵補償但提高週轉支出，我認為您 2023 年的自由現金流轉換僅為低個位數。您是否有 2024 年自由現金流轉換目標可以分享？

Yes. I would just say that when we talk about the improvement in our free cash flow, I'll let -- Phil is quite anxious to make a comment here. But when we talk about the incentive pay, I didn't say that we would be cutting incentive pay help cash flow. I said that our incentive pay would be tied to the generation of cash flow. So I hope that came out clearly. This is the highest portion of our incentive pay for senior managers this year is going to be on achieving our cash flow targets and objectives.

是的。我只想說，當我們談論自由現金流的改善時，我會讓——菲爾非常渴望在這裡發表評論。但當我們談論激勵薪酬時，我並沒有說我們會削減激勵薪酬以幫助現金流。我說過我們的激勵薪酬將與現金流的產生掛鉤。所以我希望這一點能夠清楚地表達出來。這是我們今年對高階主管的激勵薪酬中最高的一部分，將用於實現我們的現金流目標和目標。

Yes. So free cash flow is clearly going to be better in 2024 than 2023. Therefore, consequently, the conversion ratio is certainly going to be better year-on-year. And I think we highlighted some items to consider CapEx will be $30 million lower, restructuring cash will be $30 million lower, between pension and incentive comp that we pay out in '24, the '23 performance combined will be about $35 million lower overall.

是的。因此，2024 年的自由現金流顯然會比 2023 年更好。因此，轉換率肯定會比去年同期更好。我認為我們強調了一些需要考慮的項目，資本支出將降低3000 萬美元，重組現金將降低3000 萬美元，我們在24 年支付的養老金和激勵補償之間，23 年的業績總計將降低約3500萬美元。

We still do have outstanding the Praxair lawsuit that we won quite a while back against Linde. And so look, we're just going to be very disciplined when it comes to cash flow. Hitting the cycle average 40% free cash flow conversion ratio that we've targeted, that's going to be difficult in '24 as we continue to recover overall. But quite frankly, again, we're going to be clearly better than we were in 2023.

我們仍然有未決的普萊克斯訴訟，我們很久以前就贏了林德。所以看，我們在現金流方面會非常嚴格。要達到我們設定的週期平均 40% 自由現金流轉換率目標，這在 24 年將是困難的，因為我們將繼續整體復甦。但坦白說，我們的情況顯然會比 2023 年更好。

Yes. And I would just say, when we look at on a normalized basis, that 40% free cash flow conversion rate, I would still say that's where this company ought to be doing a normalized economic period. I don't see that number having changed.

是的。我只想說，當我們在正常化的基礎上考慮 40% 的自由現金流轉換率時，我仍然會說這就是這家公司在正常化經濟時期應該處於的水平。我沒有看到這個數字有變化。

Sounds good. And then regarding the U.S. construction market, at least on paper, Housing starts were pretty good in the fourth quarter of 2023, up 6% after some big declines earlier in the year. Did you see that come through in your Q4 results? And polyurethanes were just pretty soft due to weakness in other regions? Or should we be thinking about a lag, if housing starts to improve in 1 quarter, maybe it takes like 1 or 2 quarters for that to flow through to Huntsman?

聽起來不錯。然後就美國建築市場而言，至少在紙面上，2023 年第四季的新屋開工情況相當不錯，繼今年稍早大幅下降後，成長了 6%。您在第四季的業績中看到這一點了嗎？由於其他地區的疲軟，聚氨酯變得相當柔軟？或者我們應該考慮滯後，如果住房在第一個季度開始改善，也許需要一兩個季度才能流向亨斯邁？

Yes. Let's remember that the time from permitting to purchasing, to building inventory, the impact of that entire supply chain is not an instantaneous issue. And companies today are looking at where they're going to be in second quarter and in some cases, third quarter, they're looking at what the demand is going to be and projected to be.

是的。讓我們記住，從許可到採購，再到建立庫存，整個供應鏈的影響並不是一個瞬時問題。今天的公司正在考慮第二季度的情況，在某些情況下，第三季度，他們正在考慮需求的情況和預期的情況。

We'll see things like mortgage rates will have an impact on how much inventory and pre-buying OSB and installation customers will be doing. So there are a lot of variables. But again, as we look at it, if we step back and we look at it from a macro point of view, from what we're hearing from our customers, the early indications that we're seeing, our indication internally as Tony said, it's time to restart our line in Geismar and gradually start bringing that into the market, and we believe that's going to be needed to satisfy demand. So that should tell you as much of our view going forward.

我們將看到抵押貸款利率等因素將影響庫存量、預購 OSB 和安裝客戶的數量。所以存在著很多變數。但同樣，當我們審視它時，如果我們退後一步，從宏觀角度來看它，從我們從客戶那裡聽到的、我們看到的早期跡象、我們內部的跡象，正如托尼所說，是時候重新啟動我們在Geismar 的生產線並逐漸開始將其推向市場了，我們相信這將是滿足需求所必需的。因此，這應該可以告訴您我們對未來的看法。

The next question is from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global.

下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Hassan Ahmed。

Peter, in the sort of prepared remarks that you guys posted overnight, for the polyurethane segment, you guys talked about I believe it was like a 6% volume gain in Europe, and you talked about some market share gains out there as well. Can you talk about the dynamic that's transpiring over there with regards to this?

彼得，在你們隔夜發布的準備好的評論中，對於聚氨酯領域，你們談到了我相信歐洲的銷量增長了 6%，你們也談到了一些市場份額的增長。您能談談那邊正在發生的與此相關的動態嗎？

Yes. I would just remind you that we had our facility down earlier in the year, so when we talk about where we were a year ago and where we were even a quarter ago, it's -- those are pretty easy comps to beat. So I'd like to think that Europe is expanding GDP 6% per quarter. It's going to continue like that. But again, there's -- I think there's some fundamental issues around Europe on the broader economic perspective when you look at energy and industrial policy. But as we look at our customer base in Europe, we don't see it getting any worse. We see, if anything, there's perhaps a building tendency for restocking. And as we look at our facility there, it's running well. And we're continuing to see stability and gradual improvement there. And hopefully, effective March 1 here, we'll be successful in price increases.

是的。我只想提醒你，我們的設施在今年早些時候就關閉了，所以當我們談論我們一年前甚至一個季度前的情況時，這些都是很容易擊敗的。所以我認為歐洲的 GDP 每季成長 6%。事情還會繼續這樣下去。但同樣，我認為，當你審視能源和產業政策時，從更廣泛的經濟角度來看，歐洲存在一些基本問題。但當我們審視歐洲的客戶群時，我們發現情況並沒有變得更糟。我們發現，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是補貨的趨勢可能正在增強。當我們查看那裡的設施時，它運作良好。我們繼續看到那裡的穩定性和逐步改善。希望從 3 月 1 日起我們能夠成功漲價。

Understood. Understood. And just sticking to the Polyurethane segment. I mean, obviously, EBITDA margins in Q4 were around 1.5% call it near breakeven. And you guys are relatively sort of low cost, downstream integrated and the like. Could you talk a bit about the global cost curves. I mean, I'd like to think that a large chunk of the industry is loss-making right now. I mean how sustainable is that really, should we be seeing sort of curtailments now and pricing increases in theory that would ensue thereon after?

明白了。明白了。並專注於聚氨酯領域。我的意思是，顯然，第四季度的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 1.5%，稱其接近盈虧平衡。你們的成本相對較低，下游整合等等。能談談全球成本曲線嗎？我的意思是，我認為該行業的很大一部分目前正在虧損。我的意思是，這到底有多可持續，我們現在是否應該看到某種程度的削減以及理論上隨後會隨之而來的價格上漲？

Well, it's -- I mean just going around the world, the lowest-cost producers globally right now are in China. And you've got low energy costs in China with the amount of coal that's being consumed and the coal-based economy largely. And that's going to be where you've got the largest newest facilities, and so you're going to have the lowest cost coming out of China. Second on that cost curve is going to be the U.S. I believe our positioning in the U.S. is that -- I'm not going to sit here and say that we are the lowest cost producer in North America, but I would be surprised if anybody is lower than us. I don't know the exact economics of our competition. But I think between our reliability and the size of our facility and so forth, we would be among the lowest cost producers in North America.

嗯，我的意思是環遊世界，目前全球成本最低的生產商在中國。中國的能源成本較低，煤炭消耗量大，經濟主要以煤炭為基礎。那裡將擁有最大的最新設施，因此來自中國的成本最低。成本曲線上的第二位將是美國。我相信我們在美國的定位是——我不會坐在這裡說我們是北美成本最低的生產商，但如果有人說我們是北美成本最低的生產商，我會感到驚訝比我們低。我不知道我們的競爭對手的確切經濟狀況。但我認為，考慮到我們的可靠性和設施規模等因素，我們將成為北美成本最低的生產商之一。

And I would say that when I look at the profitability in North America, while it's improving, these are not long-term sustainable margins. We need to see better market conditions, pricing and demand. And then when I go to Europe, Europe is 1 cold winter or 1 failed pipeline or 1 import terminal problem away from an energy spike as we saw in the summer before Putin's invasion as we saw in the winter of Putin's invasions, we've seen since then where energy prices can spike up 5, 10x in a very short period of time.

我想說的是，當我觀察北美的獲利能力時，雖然它正在改善，但這些並不是長期可持續的利潤率。我們需要看到更好的市場狀況、定價和需求。然後當我去歐洲時，歐洲距離能源高峰只有1 個寒冷的冬天或1 個管道故障或1 個進口碼頭問題，正如我們在普丁入侵之前的夏天看到的那樣，就像我們在普丁入侵的冬天看到的那樣，我們已經看到從那時起，能源價格可以在很短的時間內飆升 5 至 10 倍。

So Europe needs to figure out what their energy policy is going to be and that having economy of that size based on the means of propulsion that Columbus used 700 years ago is insane. And they've got to figure out what they're going to do from an energy point of view and from an industrial point of view. And what are they going do to compete. When you look at the margins over the last 2 years, in particular, I think that I publicly have said it if I haven't, then I should, we haven't made strong cash flow out of Europe in almost 2 years. That's unacceptable, and it's unsustainable.

因此，歐洲需要弄清楚他們的能源政策將會是什麼，並且基於哥倫布 700 年前使用的推進方式擁有如此規模的經濟是瘋狂的。他們必須從能源和工業的角度弄清楚他們要做什麼。他們將做什麼來競爭。特別是當你看看過去兩年的利潤率時，我認為我已經公開說過了，如果我沒有說過，那麼我應該這樣做，我們已經近兩年沒有從歐洲產生強勁的現金流了。這是不可接受的，也是不可持續的。

So if we're in that position, even if our competition, I believe, again, in Europe, we may not be the lowest, but I bet we're very close to the lowest cost producer, there's no way that an MDI company is operating at European market economics today and says we're making a strong return on capital, and we're proud of what we're doing today.

因此，如果我們處於這個位置，即使我們的競爭對手，我再次相信，在歐洲，我們可能不是最低的，但我敢打賭我們非常接近成本最低的生產商，MDI 公司不可能今天在歐洲市場經濟領域運營，並表示我們正在獲得強勁的資本回報，我們為今天所做的事情感到自豪。

Europe, it just -- so yes, Hassan, I'm happy to where the direction that the markets are going, demand is picking up, pricing is picking up. I don't mean to get on top right here, but we've got a long way to go, and there's a lot of work that needs to be done. I think we're heading in the right direction. But I still -- Europe probably has me more worried than the U.S. and Asia.

歐洲，是的，哈桑，我很高興看到市場的發展方向，需求正在回升，價格正在回升。我並不是要在這裡取得成功，但我們還有很長的路要走，還有很多工作要完成。我認為我們正朝著正確的方向前進。但我仍然——歐洲可能比美國和亞洲更讓我擔心。

Our next question comes from the line of Salvador Tiano with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自薩爾瓦多·蒂亞諾與美國銀行的聯繫。

I just want to come back to the U.S. MDI market first. So firstly, it seems like you have some pretty steep price increase you mentioned correctly. If I heard correctly, around $400 a ton in the U.S., but some trade publications even last night are still differentiating between U.S. and European and Asia conditions saying the demand and supply are much, much looser here. So what are you seeing that's making you quite more optimistic than, I guess, trade consultants here? And also on the Geismar startup in Q2, can you discuss a little bit what would be the cost associated with that? And what is the minimum operating rate that you need to run in order to be profitable on an EBIT or an EBITDA level?

我只想先回到美國MDI市場。首先，您提到的價格似乎大幅上漲。如果我沒聽錯的話，美國的價格約為每噸 400 美元，但一些貿易出版物甚至昨晚仍在區分美國、歐洲和亞洲的情況，稱這裡的需求和供應要寬鬆得多。那麼，您看到了什麼讓您比這裡的貿易顧問更樂觀呢？另外，關於第二季的 Geismar 新創公司，您能否討論一下與之相關的成本是多少？為了在 EBIT 或 EBITDA 層級上獲利，您需要運行的最低營運率是多少？

Yes. When we talk about the $400 a ton, I will just remind you that's what we're shooting for in our HPS business. So we take our own MDI internally, we transfer it to HBS, we price that at market and then we sell that to customers. And we're seeing -- we've been public. And I only want to talk about price increases that we have that are public.

是的。當我們談論每噸 400 美元時，我只想提醒您，這就是我們 HPS 業務的目標。因此，我們在內部採用自己的 MDI，將其轉移到哈佛商學院，按市場定價，然後出售給客戶。我們看到——我們已經公開了。我只想談談我們公開的價格上漲。

As we think about what the trade is saying versus what we're saying, well, the difference -- you asked what the difference is between those, one sells paper and one sells product, and we sell product. And so I can only comment on what we're seeing, what our customers are seeing, the feedback we get from our customers and reality on pricing. Trade publications, I think, are a good snapshot on the macro basis. But I wouldn't say right now that MDI in the U.S. is long and sloppy in pricing. I'd say if that were the case, we wouldn't be shooting for the price increases and pushing for the price increases that we are. And I apologize, I forgot the latter part of your question.

當我們思考產業所說的與我們所說的不同時，你問他們之間有什麼區別，一個賣紙張，一個賣產品，而我們賣產品。因此，我只能評論我們所看到的、我們的客戶所看到的、我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋以及定價的現實。我認為，貿易出版物是宏觀基礎上的一個很好的快照。但我現在不會說美國的 MDI 定價漫長且草率。我想說，如果是這樣的話，我們就不會大力推動價格上漲，也不會推動價格上漲。我很抱歉，我忘記了你問題的後半部。

I think it's just confirming, I think just -- sorry, go ahead.

我認為這只是確認，我想只是——抱歉，繼續吧。

So just it was the second unit on Geismar, if there will be any costs in Q2 associated with the startup. And if -- and what's the minimum operating rate that needs to be -- that you need to run to be profitable on an EBIT or an EBITDA basis?

因此，如果第二季會有與啟動相關的任何成本的話，這只是 Geismar 上的第二個單位。如果您需要以 EBIT 或 EBITDA 為基礎實現獲利，那麼最低營運率是多少？

We will just -- as we said, we'll just bring that on slowly, make sure that we operate appropriately above 50% levels. So I mean you know these plants below those levels, then they tend to glue up. So to operate them efficiently, we'll bring those on, but we'll bring them on slowly. And we'll make sure that we're profitable in what we put into the market.

我們將——正如我們所說，我們將慢慢地實現這一點，確保我們在 50% 的水平之上適當運作。所以我的意思是你知道這些植物低於這些水平，然後它們往往會粘在一起。因此，為了有效地運作它們，我們將啟用它們，但我們會慢慢啟用它們。我們將確保我們投入市場的產品能夠獲利。

Our next question is from the line of Patrick Cunningham with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Patrick Cunningham。

This is Eric Zhang on for Patrick. You've done a lot with polyurethanes on the cost optimization front. What do you think EBITDA margins can get to this year with maybe a modest volume recovery and forward prices?

這是帕特里克的埃里克·張。您在成本優化方面對聚氨酯做了很多工作。您認為，如果銷售量和遠期價格略有回升，今年的 EBITDA 利潤率會達到多少？

I'd be reticent to throw out a margin number because I know whatever I say, I'm either going to be too high or too low. But I do think that we'll be moving throughout the year, hopefully, again, unless we see a massive amount of restocking that happens very suddenly, which I'm not anticipating, but I think that we're going to see a gradual improvement throughout the year. And I hope that we finish the year much closer to our normalized levels of EBITDA than when we started the year. I know that's a superfluous answer, but I think at this point, again, we've got the results of January and just simply too early in the year to make a year prediction.

我不願意給出保證金數字，因為我知道無論我說什麼，我的保證金要么太高，要么太低。但我確實認為我們將在全年中繼續前進，希望再次，除非我們看到突然發生的大量補貨，這是我沒有預料到的，但我認為我們將看到一個漸進的過程全年都有所改善。我希望我們今年結束時的 EBITDA 水平比年初時更加接近正常水平。我知道這是一個多餘的答案，但我認為此時此刻，我們再次得到了一月份的結果，而且在今年做出年度預測還為時過早。

And as we said, cycle average margins, if you go back over the last 10 years, this is a mid-teens plus margin business.

正如我們所說，週期平均利潤率，如果你回顧過去 10 年，你會發現這是一個十幾歲左右的利潤率業務。

Operator, I think we'll take 1 more question. We're nearing the top of the hour and assuming anybody else is with us.

接線員，我想我們還要回答 1 個問題。我們已經接近最後時刻了，假設還有其他人和我們在一起。

Yes, we have a question from line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

是的，勞倫斯·亞歷山大 (Laurence Alexander) 和傑弗里斯 (Jefferies) 向我們提出了一個問題。

Just want to revisit the portfolio optimization comments, to what degree the scale of your business a limiting factor in what you do? Or is the focus really just on return on capital volatility kind of what is -- what value is reflected in your share price versus the fundamental value? Can you just help clarify how much scale constraints what you do?

只是想重新審視一下投資組合優化評論，您的業務規模在多大程度上成為您所做工作的限制因素？或者，焦點真的只是資本報酬率的波動性──相對於基本價值，你的股價反映了哪些價值？您能幫忙澄清一下您所做的事情有多少規模限制嗎？

Yes. So I mean you're talking about the plants, Laurence, that we've sold down our TiO2 business, our spindle top business, the intermediates business, textile effects business, and we've got a $6 billion company today. Again, I think we love that we were adding on bolt-on acquisitions to grow the business and grow the business both organically and inorganically over time, and those inorganic investments would come around particularly around advanced materials.

是的。所以我的意思是，勞倫斯，你談論的是工廠，我們已經出售了 TiO2 業務、錠頂業務、中間體業務、紡織效果業務，而我們今天擁有一家價值 60 億美元的公司。再說一次，我認為我們喜歡透過增加補充性收購來發展業務，並隨著時間的推移有機和無機地發展業務，而這些無機投資將特別圍繞先進材料進行。

And as Peter said earlier, you may look at some small parts around the edge as well in terms of whether we're the best owner or not. But to the point, we come in and we look every day. Are we the best owner? Can we generate an effective return from the portfolio in the long run. And you are correct, we're absolutely looking at the return on invested capital versus our cost of capital.

正如彼得之前所說，你也可以看看邊緣的一些小部分，以及我們是否是最好的所有者。但就這一點而言，我們每天都會進來看看。我們是最好的主人嗎？從長遠來看，我們能否從投資組合中產生有效的報酬？你是對的，我們絕對會考慮投資資本報酬率與資本成本。

Yes. I would just say, Laurence, and I hope I don't get ahead of myself in saying this, that we do run the risk. If we were to look at selling a big chunk of the business today without the acquisition of something else, we run the risk of getting too small here. And I think that's not something that we want to entertain either. But that shouldn't preclude us from doing something big if we can replace it with something big and continue to shift and change the portfolio.

是的。我只想說，勞倫斯，我希望我不要說得太過分，我們確實冒著風險。如果我們今天打算出售大部分業務而不收購其他業務，那麼我們就面臨規模過小的風險。我認為這也不是我們想要娛樂的事情。但這不應該妨礙我們做一些大事，如果我們可以用大事來取代它，並繼續轉移和改變投資組合。

I think again, I publicly have said if you go back and look at the history of Huntsman, every 5 years, at least, there's been a major addition, a major divestiture, something that is -- has fundamentally changed that I believe has made us a stronger company, whether it's a sale going back 15 years ago of our base chemicals businesses, 10 years ago of our TiO2 and some of our -- the basic pieces and so forth and more recently in the last 5 years of our intermediates and textile effects and I think that at the same time, being able to buy the right assets to replace those or if we can't find the right assets, we're going to return cash as we did this last year with the sale of the textile effects business, we're going to return cash to shareholders.

我再次想，我公開說過，如果你回顧一下亨斯邁的歷史，至少每 5 年就會有一次重大的補充、一次重大的資產剝離，我認為已經發生了根本性的變化。我們是一家更強大的公司，無論是15 年前出售我們的基礎化學品業務，10 年前出售我們的TiO2 和我們的一些基礎件等等，還是最近5 年出售我們的中間體和我認為，與此同時，如果我們能夠購買合適的資產來替代這些資產，或者如果我們找不到合適的資產，我們將像去年出售紡織品那樣返還現金紡織效果業務，我們將向股東返還現金。

Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of question-and-answer session. This will also conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Have a wonderful day.

謝謝。此時，我們的問答環節已經結束了。今天的電話會議也將結束。此時您可以斷開線路。祝你有美好的一天。