Huntsman Corp (HUN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Huntsman Corporation fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加亨斯邁集團 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Ivan Marcuse, VP of IR and Corporate Development. Thank you. You may begin.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹投資者關係和企業發展副總裁 Ivan Marcuse。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Darryl, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Huntsman's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call. Joining us on the call today are Peter Huntsman, Chairman, CEO and President; Phil Lister, Executive Vice President and CFO.

謝謝你，達裡爾，大家早安。歡迎參加亨斯邁 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的還有董事長、執行長兼總裁彼得‧亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman)； Phil Lister，執行副總裁兼財務長。

Yesterday, February 17, 2025, we released our earnings for the fourth quarter of 2024 via press release posted to our website, huntsman.com. We also posted a set of slides and detailed commentary discussing the fourth quarter 2024 on our website. Peter Huntsman will provide some opening comments shortly, and we will then move to a question-and-answer session for the remainder of the call.

昨天，也就是 2025 年 2 月 17 日，我們透過發佈在我們的網站 huntsman.com 上的新聞稿發布了 2024 年第四季的收益。我們也在我們的網站上發布了一系列討論 2024 年第四季的幻燈片和詳細評論。彼得·亨茨曼 (Peter Huntsman) 很快就會發表一些開場評論，然後我們將進入問答環節，完成電話會議的剩餘部分。

During this call, let me remind you that we may make statements about our projections or expectations for the future. All such statements are forward-looking statements. And while they reflect our current expectations, they involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. You should review our filings with the SEC for more information regarding the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these projections or expectations.

在這次通話中，請容許我提醒您，我們可能會對未來的預測或期望做出陳述。所有這些陳述都是前瞻性陳述。雖然它們反映了我們當前的預期，但它們涉及風險和不確定性，並且不能保證未來的表現。您應該查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與這些預測或預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。

We do not plan on publicly updating or revising any forward-looking statements during the quarter. We will also refer to non-GAAP financial measures, such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income or loss and free cash flow. You can find reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release, which has been posted to our website, huntsman.com.

我們不計劃在本季公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明。我們也將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的淨收入或虧損和自由現金流。您可以在我們的收益報告中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表，該報告已發佈在我們的網站 huntsman.com 上。

I'll now turn the call over to Peter Huntsman.

現在我將電話轉給彼得‧亨茨曼。

Ivan, thank you very much for that exciting preamble, and thank you all for taking the time to join us this morning. The purpose of my taking a few minutes to begin these calls is not simply adding more to our script. It is to make sure that we're sharing with you the most recent data and for me to share our views as of the direction of our company in key markets in real time. We've given you an outlook on first quarter on a divisional basis. We're often asked why we don't give yearly guidance.

伊万，非常感謝你的精彩開場，也感謝大家今天早上抽出時間參加我們的活動。我花幾分鐘開始這些通話的目的不僅僅是在我們的腳本中添加更多內容。這是為了確保我們與您分享最新的數據，並讓我能夠即時分享我們對公司在關鍵市場的發展方向的看法。我們已經按部門為您提供了第一季的展望。我們經常被問到為什麼不提供年度指導。

As I look at markets and the geopolitical scene over the past two weeks, I think this provides ample reason why we are reluctant to try to plan much beyond three to six months as it relates to market conditions. I'll come back to those most recent conditions in a moment. I would also like to give some further clarity on the often-used phrase, we will focus on the things which we can control.

當我回顧過去兩週的市場和地緣政治情況時，我認為這充分說明了為什麼我們不願意根據市場狀況制定三到六個月以上的計劃。稍後我會回顧最近的情況。我還想進一步澄清一下經常使用的說法，我們將專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

On our earnings call in October 2022, reporting on the first quarter to see the full impact of Putin's invasion of Ukraine and Europe's failed energy policies. We stated that a new normal in Europe would include higher gas prices and recessionary conditions.

在我們 2022 年 10 月的財報電話會議上，我們將報告第一季的情況，以全面了解普丁入侵烏克蘭和歐洲失敗的能源政策所帶來的影響。我們指出，歐洲的新常態將包括油價上漲和經濟衰退。

To offset these actions, we announced initiatives to cut costs in excess of $40 million. We delivered those savings in less than 12 months. As it became clear that Europe's focus on deindustrialization was growing faster than anyone expected, many global markets were slowing. We took further steps -- we've continued to do so through 2023 and 2024. These include the closure and relocation of our Everberg, Belgium, R&D and European headquarter office.

為了抵​​銷這些影響，我們宣布了削減超過 4,000 萬美元成本的措施。我們在不到 12 個月的時間內就實現了這些節省。隨著歐洲對去工業化關注度的成長速度明顯超出預期，許多全球市場開始放緩。我們採取了進一步的措施——我們將在 2023 年和 2024 年繼續這樣做。其中包括關閉和搬遷我們位於比利時埃弗貝格的研發中心和歐洲總部辦公室。

Offices in the UK, Brazil, Argentina and Chile. We closed or sold polyurethane system houses in Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Italy, and today announced the closures of our Deggendorf, Germany and King's Lynn UK locations. We've opened global business services hubs in San Jose, Costa Rica and Krakow Poland. We expanded our Kuala Lampur, Malaysia site and now have approximately 600 positions (inaudible) as we have reduced head count and costs in Basel, Brussels and the Woodlands.

在英國、巴西、阿根廷和智利設有辦事處。我們關閉或出售了位於馬來西亞、泰國、印尼和義大利的聚氨酯系統工廠，今天也宣布關閉位於德國代根多夫和英國金斯林的工廠。我們在哥斯達黎加聖何塞和波蘭克拉科夫開設了全球商業服務中心。我們擴大了位於馬來西亞吉隆坡的工廠，目前擁有約 600 個職位（聽不清楚），因為我們減少了巴塞爾、布魯塞爾和伍德蘭茲的員工數量和成本。

In our Advanced Materials divisions, we've closed our BLR capacity in Alabama and sold our Harrison City, Pennsylvania facility. We also announced today that we'll be taking actions with regards to our Moores Germany maleic anhydride facility.

在我們的先進材料部門，我們關閉了位於阿拉巴馬州的 BLR 產能，並出售了位於賓州哈里森城的工廠。我們今天也宣布，我們將針對摩爾斯德國馬來酸酐工廠採取行動。

Also in early 2023, we closed on the sale of our Textile Effects division. We're not sitting about wondering what to do about Europe and other troubled areas. Decisions executed have more than offset over $150 million of global inflationary costs since 2022 and seen our SG&A drop by more than 6%.

此外，在 2023 年初，我們完成了紡織效果部門的出售。我們並不是坐在那裡思考該如何解決歐洲和其他問題地區的問題。所執行的決策已抵銷了自 2022 年以來超過 1.5 億美元的全球通膨成本，並且我們的銷售、一般及行政費用下降了 6% 以上。

We continue to assess our global assets in all of our divisions, as I believe this industry will continue to see consolidation, divestitures and acquisitions. We will not only look at our cost structure, but also our asset footprint. I believe that we're well positioned to benefit as demand and pricing recover. Lastly, I'd like to comment about our 2025 outlook. Rather than try to predict our earnings outcome a year from now, we need to focus on capitalizing on today's market forces.

我們將繼續評估我們所有部門的全球資產，因為我相信這個行業將繼續看到整合、資產剝離和收購。我們不僅會關注我們的成本結構，還會關注我們的資產足跡。我相信，隨著需求和價格的恢復，我們將能夠從中受益。最後，我想評論一下我們對 2025 年的展望。我們不應該試圖預測一年後的獲利結果，而應該集中精力利用當今的市場力量。

Just in the past two weeks, two such forces have emerged that have potentially longer-term ramifications. The first of these are the recent announcements on tariffs. By and large, the vast majority of what we produce in Europe, the US and China, stay within those regions. In fact, actions to date that have focused on imports into the US will likely help our earnings.

僅在過去兩週，就出現了兩股可能產生長期影響的力量。首先是最近宣布的關稅政策。整體而言，我們在歐洲、美國和中國生產的絕大部分產品都留在這些地區。事實上，迄今為止採取的針對美國進口的行動可能有助於我們的獲利。

Needless to say, these tariffs are changing almost daily, but I feel we are quite well situated that we can ship as we ship very little across the Atlantic or the Pacific. The second shift we are seeing is around recent price announcements in many of our products. I believe that MDI was among the first of the major chemical chains, the drop in demand and margins. This was due to the simultaneous rise in interest rates that slowed North American construction in the collapse of the Chinese housing market.

不用說，這些關稅幾乎每天都在變化，但我覺得我們的情況相當有利，因為我們很少運送跨越大西洋或太平洋的貨物。我們看到的第二個變化是圍繞我們許多產品的最新價格公告。我認為，MDI 是主要化工鏈中需求和利潤率首先出現下降的企業之一。這是由於中國房地產市場崩盤之際，利率同時上升，導致北美建築業放緩。

Europe's industrial decline and overcapacity as [Proganounced] pre-COVID came on stream. I think Huntsman remained incredibly disciplined with respect to pricing we previously announced lost volume due to this. We've stated on past calls that demand needs to return before pricing picks up. As we have reported in the past few quarters, we've seen volumes improve as deinventory has ceased and demand has tepidly returned. I believe that we're seeing some early signs of recovery in pricing and margins return.

歐洲的工業衰退和產能過剩在新冠疫情之前就已經出現。我認為亨斯邁在定價方面保持了極其嚴謹的態度，我們先前宣布的銷售損失就是由於這個原因。我們在過去的電話會議中曾表示，需求需要恢復，價格才能上漲。正如我們在過去幾個季度所報告的那樣，隨著去庫存的停止和需求的溫和回升，我們看到銷量有所改善。我相信我們已經看到了價格和利潤率回升的一些早期跡象。

As of today, we are seeing publicly reported polymeric MDI prices in China at a three-year high. Huntsman has also announced a series of price increases in North America as well. Again, as publicly reported, we have seen others pushing for similar actions. It is challenging to say if these actions will be successful and how soon and to what segments they will stick. However, as we sit here today, it's fair to say there are more positive than negative movement in the MDI industry.

截至今天，我們看到中國公開報道的聚合 MDI 價格處於三年來的最高水準。亨斯邁也宣佈在北美地區進行一系列價格上調。再次，正如公開報道的那樣，我們看到其他人也在推動類似的行動。很難說這些措施是否會成功、多快成功以及會在哪些領域取得成功。然而，今天我們坐在這裡，可以公平地說，MDI 行業的積極動向多於消極動向。

My personal feeling is that MDI was one of the first major chemical chains to drop and may well be among those that show signs of recovery earlier than other chains, 2025 will be a year where we will continue to minimize our cost structure, optimize our asset footprint and aggressively push for margin expansion across the board. In short, we will not be sitting still this year.

我個人的感覺是，MDI 是首批下滑的大型化學連鎖店之一，而且很可能是比其他連鎖店更早出現復甦跡象的連鎖店之一，2025 年將是我們繼續最小化成本結構、優化資產足跡和積極推動全面利潤率擴大的一年。簡而言之，今年我們不會坐以待斃。

With that, operator, let's open the line up for any questions.

接線員，現在我們可以開始回答任何問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Patrick Cunningham, Citibank.

（操作員指示）花旗銀行的帕特里克·坎寧安。

In the midst of the restructuring actions, it seems like the downstream piece is a big part of this. But in the past, you kind of talked about this being part of the business you like. You've already gone through a lot of fixed cost takeout. First, can you help us understand the size and scope of these actions. Why is this an area of focus of (inaudible) If there's any concern in being able to fulfill that demand improvement when it does come.

在重組行動中，下游部分似乎佔了很大一部分。但在過去，您曾說過這是您喜歡的業務的一部分。您已經經歷了大量的固定成本支出。首先，您能否幫助我們了解這些行動的規模和範圍。為什麼這是重點關注的領域（聽不清楚）如果有人擔心在需求改善時無法滿足需求改善。

Yes. So I think that as you look at this across the board, we are going to calibrate our business around what customers need and what they're willing to pay for. And as we see some of our customers locating or relocating,

是的。因此，我認為，從整體上看，我們將根據客戶的需求和他們願意支付的費用來調整我們的業務。我們看到一些客戶正在安置或搬遷，

I should say, out of Europe and moving manufacturing footprints and assets to Asia and the U.S. We obviously are going to be following them and manufacturing further downstream capacities in those areas. We've also announced in previous calls that we've been able to consolidate some of our system houses by multi using assets in these various system houses.

我應該說，走出歐洲，將製造足跡和資產轉移到亞洲和美國。我們在先前的電話會議中也宣布，透過多利用各個系統公司的資產，我們已經能夠整合我們的一些系統公司。

It used to be that you would build a system house that was built around the automotive industry or one that was built around the insulation industry or one that was built around a particular region or customer cluster in Europe, for example, where we have perhaps the most developed downstream business. We -- I think, over the years, have done a much better job in being able to utilize one location to do what used to be 2 or 3 locations and expanding the capacity of that location both from a technical and from a volume point of view.

過去，你會圍繞汽車產業建立系統公司，或圍繞絕緣產業建立系統公司，或圍繞歐洲的某個特定地區或客戶群建立系統公司，例如，我們在歐洲可能擁有最發達的下游業務。我認為，多年來，我們在利用一個地點完成以前需要 2 個或 3 個地點的工作方面做得更好，並且從技術和數量的角度都擴大了該地點的容量。

So we've seen the market change. We've seen fewer customers that are demanding the formulations and the products coming out of system houses and frankly, if customers are not going to pay for the services that are rendered from those will make decisions, and we'll be cutting back. So I think it's a combination of all of those areas.

所以我們看到了市場的變化。我們發現對系統公司提供的配方和產品有需求的客戶越來越少，坦白說，如果客戶不願意為系統公司提供的服務付費，我們就會做出削減開支的決定。所以我認為這是所有這些領域的結合。

And you're going to see a preponderance of that taking place in Europe. But we've also announced where we withdrawn from some of the Southeast Asian markets. We find that it's -- our margins of supplying raw materials out of China for us at least, that was a better value proposition than moving downstream in some of these countries that we're we had to have quite a bit of local expertise and cost to be able to handle those. So it really will vary region by region.

你會看到，這種情況主要發生在歐洲。但我們也宣布退出部分東南亞市場。我們發現，至少對我們來說，從中國供應原材料的利潤率比在某些國家進行下游轉移更有價值，因為我們必須擁有相當多的本地專業知識和成本才能處理這些問題。所以它確實會因地區而異。

Understood. Very (inaudible) Commentary. And I know you don't guide for the full year, but in Performance Products, you seem to talk about margins improving earlier this year. I know you have some investments there that are adding to the EBITDA line. But what are the markets driving this volume improvement? Or is it a significant mix improvement just anything underpinning that level of confidence in material margin improvement?

明白了。非常（聽不清楚）的評論。我知道您沒有對全年業績做出預測，但在性能產品方面，您似乎談到今年早些時候利潤率有所提高。我知道你在那裡有一些投資，這些投資增加了 EBITDA 線。但是，推動這項銷售成長的市場是什麼呢？或者這是否是一種顯著的組合改進，只是任何能夠支撐對材料利潤率改善的信心水平的東西？

I do think that Performance Products will be gradually improving throughout the year. And we're going to see that mostly come about through the recovery in the construction area as it pertains to the maleic business.

我確實認為性能產品將在全年逐漸改善。我們將看到，這主要發生在與馬來酸業務相關的建築領域的復甦中。

And in our (inaudible) Business, it's going to be everything from polyurethane spray from catalysts on the raw materials going into the ag industry to our most recent expansion in [Conroe], Texas, we will be servicing the chip industry with solvents and cleaning solutions and so forth. That expansion is complete, and we're in the process right now of getting qualifications from customers. So we've actually booked sales coming from that, but I wouldn't expect to see us running at that run rate that we've given earlier forecast on until later in the year.

在我們的（聽不清楚）業務中，它將涵蓋從聚氨酯噴霧到農業行業原材料催化劑的一切，再到我們最近在德克薩斯州康羅的擴張，我們將為晶片行業提供溶劑和清潔解決方案等服務。該擴展已完成，我們現在正在獲取客戶資格。因此，我們實際上已經預定了來自該市場的銷售額，但我預計直到今年稍後我們才會達到我們先前預測的銷售速度。

when we're fully qualified in a broader customer base.

當我們在更廣泛的客戶群中完全合格時。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Peter, on your maleic announcement today, can you provide some more color as to why now given maybe a potential rebound in European construction. How much is that business, I assume a negative EBITDA? How negative is it -- and what's the potential cash cost for showing that business down?

彼得，關於你今天的悲觀聲明，你能否提供一些更詳細的信息，說明為什麼現在歐洲建築業可能會反彈。我假設該業務的 EBITDA 為負，那麼該業務的 EBITDA 是多少？它的負面影響有多大——以及展示該業務的潛在現金成本是多少？

David, always good to hear for you. Yes, we've received a couple of different inbound inquiries on that business. As you can well imagine, in a world that's rapidly changing with tariffs and trade patterns and so forth. We're going to pursue those calls, and we're going to see where values are and what we want to do with that site longer term. Longer term, as we've looked at maleic as we've looked at the downstream UPR industry, we've seen Europe become a far more competitive area with imports coming in, particularly from China, from Turkey and places in Eastern Europe I think you're pricing a lot of Russian materials and downstream products in Russia that find their way to the European market in spite of sanctions and so forth.

大衛，很高興聽到你的消息。是的，我們收到了一些關於該業務的不同來電諮詢。你可以想像，這個世界正隨著關稅、貿易模式等等而快速改變。我們將響應這些呼籲，並了解價值所在以及我們想長期對該網站做什麼。從長期來看，正如我們對馬來酸和下游不飽和聚酯樹脂行業的研究一樣，我們發現歐洲已成為一個競爭更為激烈的地區，進口量不斷增加，特別是來自中國、土耳其和東歐地區的進口產品。 我認為，許多俄羅斯材料和下游產品在俄羅斯定價，儘管受到製裁等因素的影響，但這些產品仍進入了歐洲市場。

And I think that when we look at where we've got a cost advantage where we've got a strong market position so forth is in North America. So we're going to weigh those issues and see if we're the best owner for that facility longer term. We're going to see what -- how we feel about Europe from an industrial basis, [Malene], as you know, is very sensitive to raw material costs on butane, energy byproduct values and so forth. And all of these things have to be taken into consideration. So -- that's what we're doing.

我認為，當我們看我們在何處具有成本優勢、我們在何處具有強大的市場地位時，我們就在北美。因此，我們將權衡這些問題，看看我們是否是該設施的長期最佳所有者。我們將看看從工業基礎來看我們對歐洲的看法，[馬勒訥]如你所知，對丁烷原料成本、能源副產品價值等非常敏感。所有這些因素都必須考慮在內。所以——這就是我們正在做的事情。

We're not going to be sitting here a year from now wondering what to do with that site. I think that we'll make a decision here in pretty short order.

我們不會在一年後坐在這裡思考如何處理這個網站。我認為我們很快就會做出決定。

Very good. And just on polyurethane, you mentioned some share gains as well as additional growth from the splitter in 2025. Can you provide some more color as to what's driving those share gains and potential uplift from those actions in '25?

非常好。就聚氨酯而言，您提到了一些份額增長以及 2025 年分離器的額外增長。您能否進一步說明推動這些份額成長的因素以及 25 年這些行動帶來的潛在提升？

I think in '25, particularly in North America, I think we certainly want to be able to grow with the market as we look at the nice gains that we've had over the last year or 2 in capacity utilization and so forth, we are still below pre-COVID numbers in MDI demand. We still have room for expansion. I think that, that will include perhaps a minority of what I believe that we need to be where we need to be expanded 2025 needs to come about through market growth. But there's also some applications and customers and so forth that we lost over the last year over the stance that we took on pricing on trying to maintain pricing and so forth. And we are very hopeful that we'll be getting some of that back.

我認為在 25 年，特別是在北美，我們當然希望能夠隨著市場一起成長，因為我們看到過去一兩年我們在產能利用率等方面取得了可觀的成長，但我們對 MDI 的需求仍然低於 COVID 之前的水平。我們仍有擴充的空間。我認為，這也許只包括我認為我們需要擴大的少數領域，而 2025 年需要透過市場成長來實現。但是，由於我們採取的定價立場和試圖維持價格等，我們在去年失去了一些應用程式和客戶等。我們非常希望能收回部分收益。

That's not something that happens overnight, and it's not something just because you drop the price, you get the business back. So it's going to be because of service, technical support, a full value proposition. That's not something that happens in a single quarter. So I believe that we'll continue to make further progress through 2025.

這不是一朝一夕就能發生的事情，也不是只要降價就能恢復生意。所以這將是因為服務、技術支援和完整的價值主張。這不是在一個季度內就能發生的事。因此我相信到 2025 年我們會繼續取得進一步的進展。

And David, you can assume if the market develops as we think about a $15 million benefit year-on-year from the splitter at Geismar.

戴維，你可以假設一下，如果市場發展的話，我們會想到 Geismar 分離器每年將帶來 1500 萬美元的收益。

Frank Mitch, Fermium Research.

米奇 (Frank Mitch)，鋤研究機構。

At the risk of playing an armchair psychologist, Peter, it sounds like you're more optimistic than we've heard you in quite some time. So I'm curious as to what might be more specific in terms of what's driving that optimism if I'm reading that correctly. Is it -- what you're seeing out of China post New Year's. I mean, any sort of color there would be helpful.

彼得，儘管我冒著扮演空談心理學家的風險，但聽起來你比我們相當長一段時間以來聽到的你都要樂觀。因此，我很好奇，如果我沒有看錯的話，是什麼更具體地推動了這種樂觀情緒。這是－新年過後您看到中國的情況嗎？我的意思是，任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes, Frank. Always good to hear from you. Yes, and you're not the first person that has tried to provide free psychiatric counseling to me, and I appreciate that. As we look at the markets right now, and again, I don't want us to be overreading this. Pricing actions that are taken in the first quarter of 2025 will at quickest be felt at the beginning of second quarter.

是的，弗蘭克。很高興收到您的來信。是的，您不是第一個嘗試提供我免費心理諮商的人，對此我深表感激。當我們再次審視當前的市場時，我不希望我們對此過度解讀。2025 年第一季採取的定價行動最快將在第二季初顯現。

Right? So let's get -- I mean we go out today and we say we're raising prices today. And I'm just speaking from Huntsman's perspective to Huntsman's customer, not speaking about our competition, what they may or may not be deciding on here. China is a very large polymeric MDI consumer. And the published price in China is one that is quite public.

正確的？所以讓我們——我的意思是我們今天出去並說我們今天要提高價格。我只是從亨斯邁的角度向亨斯邁的客戶發表看法，而不是談論我們的競爭對手，以及他們在這裡可能會或可能不會做出決定。中國是一個非常大的聚合MDI消費國。而且在中國公佈的價格是相當公開的。

And the published price, by and large, is fairly accurate to a very large chunk of the market in China. Those prices where we have seen them over the last 2 quarters have been remarkably stable and they've been at about a 3-year high. So again, at a place where you would think that the capacity that comes on and so forth, there seems to be fairly good macro demand and discipline. I would note that we are not seeing any, I would say, material stimuli in China that's pushing greater demand and so forth. We keep hearing rumors that that's forthcoming that it was going to come right at the end of the Chinese year, so far, I haven't seen any.

整體而言，公佈的價格相當準確，符合中國很大一部分市場的需求。我們在過去兩個季度看到的價格一直非常穩定，並且處於 3 年來的最高水平。因此，再說一次，在您認為產能出現等等的地方，似乎存在相當好的宏觀需求和紀律。我想指出的是，我們沒有看到中國採取任何物質刺激措施來推動更大的需求等等。我們不斷聽到傳言說這將在農曆年底到來，但到目前為止，我還沒有看到任何傳言。

But China, as we said, probably about a year ago, we think Chinese is going to see a very gradual recovery. And I think that's going to continue through 2025. As I look at the U.S., we are -- and again, this is in the public domain, we have gone out with a series of price increases. And I want to just emphasize, the U.S. market you'll have price points in the U.S.

但正如我們大約一年前所說的那樣，我們認為中國將會看到一個非常緩慢的復甦。我認為這種情況將持續到 2025 年。當我看美國時，我們——再說一次，這是公開的，我們已經進行了一系列的價格上漲。我想強調的是，在美國市場，你會在美國有價格點。

market because you've got a very commoditized polymeric, all the way down to downstream adhesions and so forth. Yes, price points all over the place. So when we talk about a $0.10 per pound or $0.15 per pound. That may not be effective immediately. It may not be effective across the board.

市場，因為你擁有高度商品化的聚合物，一直到下游的黏合劑等等。是的，到處都有價格點。因此當我們談論每磅 0.10 美元或每磅 0.15 美元時。此舉可能不會立即見效。它或許並不是全面有效的。

I'd also remind you, in the U.S., we also have a number of contracts, especially in the building and trade, where you'll see pricing pass-through we'll agree on a price and the price will only move for raw materials. Now those have reopeners usually every 6, 12 months, depending on the contract and so forth, where we can go in and negotiate an expansion on the margin component. My point in the U.S., Frank, is that pricing is in the contracts timing variabilities all over the place. What I am seeing in the U.S. and I have not seen for at least the last 2 years or so is -- or multiple players at the first time announcing price increase in multiple segments.

我還要提醒你，在美國，我們也有許多合同，特別是在建築和貿易方面，你會看到定價轉嫁，我們會就價格達成一致，而且價格只會因原材料而變動。現在這些通常每 6 到 12 個月重新開放一次，具體取決於合約等，我們可以進入並協商擴大保證金部分。弗蘭克，我在美國的觀點是，定價取決於合約時間的可變性。我在美國看到的情況是，至少在過去的兩年裡我從未見過多家公司首次宣布提高多個細分市場的價格。

Again, it's not all the same price, it's not the same segment. It's not all the same timing. But I've not seen that for about 2 years or so. So it tells me that with the end of deinventoring a gradual recovery of what we're seeing kind of getting back to that 1 million-plus homes the continuity and consistency and frankly, just having operated for the last 2-plus years at below -- well below a cash cost reinvestment in North America it feels like there's more stickiness to the price discussions we've had thus far. And with -- when you're dealing with out there pushing for a price increase, it's pretty [lonely].

再說一遍，它們不是同一個價格，也不是同一個細分市場。並不是所有的時間都是相同的。但我大概有兩年沒看過這種情況了。因此，它告訴我，隨著庫存削減的結束，我們看到的逐漸復甦，回到100多萬套房屋的連續性和一致性，坦率地說，在過去兩年多的時間裡，我們的運營成本一直低於——遠低於北美的現金成本再投資，感覺我們迄今為止進行的價格討論更具粘性。當你在處理那些要求漲價的事情時，這相當[孤獨]。

I don't feel that we're the only ones why I don't feel -- I know we're not the ones out there pushing for a price increase right now. So a whole variety of factors. In Europe, I would say that Europe is going to continue to be a struggle. They've got a lot of imports coming in. They're not -- they haven't decided yet.

我不認為我們是唯一不這麼認為的人，我知道我們不是現在推動價格上漲的人。所以有很多種因素。在歐洲，我想說歐洲將繼續面臨鬥爭。他們有大量進口商品。他們還沒有——他們還沒有決定。

Do they want to try to protect industry? Do they want to do anything on energy costs? Do they want to do anything on tariffs. I think everybody in Europe just trying to wait to see what tomorrow brings.

他們想嘗試保護工業嗎？他們想在能源成本方面採取任何措施嗎？他們想對關稅採取什麼措施嗎？我認為歐洲的每個人都只是在等著看明天會發生什麼事。

That's very comprehensive. If I could follow up on the U.S. and MDI and China, the U.S. is looking at a preliminary antidumping probe on Chinese MDI coming in. I'm curious if you have any thoughts as to how that may play out.

說得很全面。如果我可以跟進美國和MDI以及中國的情況，美國正在考慮對中國MDI進行初步反傾銷調查。我很好奇您是否對這將如何發展有什麼想法。

And what might be the impact and when might be the impact for you guys?

這會為你們帶來什麼影響？

Well, we are participating in that as we have been given a request from the U.S. ITC, which then will take its recommendation to the Department of Commerce, who then gives it back to the ITC that probably gives it back to the Department of Commerce and then it's decided by somebody who's getting -- apparently getting a cheque who's 134 years old from social security. My point is, right, and these sort of things, by the time there's a final adjudication it probably won't be any sooner than a year or so from now. But given where the U.S. is and given some of the potentials that are out there.

嗯，我們參與其中，因為我們收到了美國國際貿易委員會的請求，該委員會將把它的建議提交給商務部，然後商務部把它反饋給國際貿易委員會，國際貿易委員會可能再把它反饋給商務部，然後由某個從社會保障局領取支票的 134 歲老人來決定。我的觀點是，對的，對於這類事情，到時候做出最終裁決可能至少也要一年左右的時間了。但考慮到美國的現狀以及那裡存在的一些潛力。

I don't think that it would be a negative if the Commerce Department were to rule there's dumping that is taking place here. We certainly, I believe, would be a better factor of that.

如果商務部裁定中國有傾銷行為，我不認為這會帶來什麼負面影響。我相信，我們肯定會成為更好的因素。

Jeff Zekauskas, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

I think your EBITDA projection in performance products is about -- is 25% to 35% for the first quarter, so call it 30%. And last year, you did 42%. So why are we down 30% then performance products. And are we going to continue at that level in 2025. Can you analyze the EBITDA decrease for the first quarter?

我認為您對高效能產品的 EBITDA 預測第一季約為 25% 至 35%，所以稱之為 30%。去年，你的完成率為 42%。那麼為什麼我們的性能產品比現在下降了 30% 呢？2025 年我們還會繼續維持這個水準嗎？您能分析一下第一季的 EBITDA 下降情況嗎？

Sure. I'll comment. And most of that is going to come around the drop off that we have seen in profitability with our [maleic] facility in Europe. And do we intend that would be the lion's share of that? Do we intend to continue that sort of a run rate?

當然。我會評論。其中大部分是由於我們歐洲馬來酸工廠的獲利能力下降。我們是否希望這佔據其中的最大份額？我們是否打算繼續保持這樣的運作率？

Absolutely not. We are taking cost initiatives and cost measures throughout '25 that will be announced throughout the year. We've got capacity that will be coming on in Conroe. We got capacity that will be coming on to further our catalyst chemistry in Petfurdo, Hungary that will be coming on in midyear. I don't like forecasts that show the second half of the year hockey sticks.

絕對不是。我們將在25年採取成本措施和成本措施，並將在全年宣布。我們在康羅擁有充足的產能。我們的匈牙利佩特富爾多 (Petfurdo) 催化劑化學產能將於年中投入生產。我不喜歡那些顯示下半年形勢曲棍球棒狀的預測。

But we do have capacity that will be coming into the market at the end of the first half, and that volume will be coming into the market in the second half. And I believe that we've seen the de inventories, we've been hopefully quite clear on past calls, I think performance products and a lot of the amine chemistry in particular, really saw a deinventory that took place on that supply chain later than polyurethanes and even advanced material. And I think that we'll see a gradual recovery of that taking place throughout the year.

但我們確實有足夠的產能在上半年末進入市場，而該產量也將在下半年進入市場。我相信我們已經看到了庫存減少的情況，希望我們在過去的電話會議中已經非常清楚，我認為性能產品，特別是許多胺類化學品，確實看到了供應鏈上庫存減少的情況，這種減少發生的時間比聚氨酯甚至先進材料都要晚。我認為我們將在全年看到這一趨勢的逐步復甦。

And in Polyurethanes, what's the year-over-year volume growth either that you expect in the first quarter of '25 or that you've experienced year-to-date?

在聚氨酯方面，您預計 25 年第一季或今年迄今的銷量年增率是多少？

I would think that, that's going to be around about 5% as we look at the first quarter versus first quarter. First quarter, '25 to first quarter '24, somewhere in that low single digit.

我認為，如果將第一季與第一季進行比較，這一數字將在 5% 左右。2025 年第一季至 2024 年第一季度，維持在個位數的低點。

And relatively consistent, Jeff, with what we saw in 2024, continued growth, which is obviously important for the the color that Peter gave around pricing.

並且相對一致，傑夫，正如我們在 2024 年所看到的，持續增長，這對彼得給出的定價色彩顯然很重要。

And I would just know that's based on recovery, not on growth. That may sound like an oxymoron, but again, I think these markets are still recovering. I don't believe that we're seeing real growth taking place yet from the pre-COVID levels.

我只知道這是基於復甦，而不是成長。這聽起來可能有點矛盾，但我還是認為這些市場仍在復甦。我認為，我們尚未看到與疫情之前的水平相比出現真正的增長。

Vincent Andrews, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的文森安德魯斯。

Wondering if you could speak a bit more to volume expectations in the European market. You had some recovery there last year and just obviously, with all the uncertainty there. Just wondering what you're expecting in Europe.

想知道您是否可以再多談談歐洲市場的銷售預期。去年那裡有了一些復甦，但顯然也存在許多不確定性。只是想知道您對歐洲有何期待。

I'd like to be more optimistic about Europe. I think it's going to be rather flat. And a lot of the volume pickup that we saw this year versus last year, we had a pretty bad comparison last year as we had an electrical outage at our Rotterdam facility that cost us some volume. So as we look at as we look at that, it's going to -- the comparison probably makes it a bit skewed. I'd also just remind you that at the latter part of this quarter first and beginning part of next quarter, there's a 40-day turnaround.

我對歐洲持更樂觀的態度。我認為它會相當平穩。與去年相比，今年的銷量大幅增加，而去年的銷量相比則相當糟糕，因為我們鹿特丹工廠發生了電力故障，導致銷量下降。所以當我們觀察它時，會發現—比較可能使它有點扭曲。我還要提醒你，本季後半段和下季初有 40 天的周轉時間。

And just to remind everybody, this is a cluster turnaround that involves a number of our raw material suppliers and even some of our downstream customers, everybody that's kind of involved on that entire ship channel in Rotterdam. They all come down once every 4 years and in an effort to try to do all your maintenance or thing. And the key is coming back up, you can only come up as fast as the slowest least competent operator can bring their facility up and running. So hopefully, that will be 40 days or less with probably slightly more than 50% of that in Q1 and the rest of that being in Q2.

需要提醒大家的是，這是一個集群轉型，涉及我們的許多原材料供應商，甚至一些下游客戶，以及參與鹿特丹整個航道的所有人。他們每四年來一次，盡力完成所有維護工作或事情。關鍵是要盡快恢復，您的恢復速度只能和最慢、最不熟練的操作員使其設施啟動和運行的速度一樣快。因此，希望這個時間是 40 天或更短，其中可能略多於 50% 出現在第一季度，其餘部分出現在第二季度。

Okay. And then if I could just ask on a follow-up on all of your pricing commentary, which was very helpful. If I heard what you said it correctly, it sounds like you're suggesting it's possible that there could be some good price achievement this year that would not come at the expense of volume, meaning that the volume needs to go up with sort of just the overall recovery in the market. But that you might still also be able to get price. So there wouldn't be any trade-off between the two.

好的。然後，我是否可以就您的所有定價評論進行後續詢問，這非常有幫助。如果我沒聽錯，您說的似乎是今年的價格可能會有所上漲，而這不會以犧牲銷量為代價，這意味著銷量需要隨著市場的整體復甦而上升。但您也許還能獲得價格。所以兩者之間不會有權衡。

Is that a correct interpretation of what you said?

這是您所說內容的正確解釋嗎？

Yes. That would be a correct interpretation. If we are sitting here reporting in first quarter that we've lost market share, and we're giving up volume in order to get pricing. I will not be happy.

是的。這是一個正確的解釋。如果我們在第一季報告裡說我們失去了市場份額，那麼我們就是在放棄銷售來獲得定價。我不會高興的。

John Roberts, Mizuho Securities.

瑞穗證券的約翰‧羅伯茲 (John Roberts)。

Do you think the reciprocal tariffs will change the trade flows for your customers that could impact you? Or do you think it's just going to change price and there'll be minimal change in trade flows at your customers?

您是否認為互惠關稅會改變您的客戶的貿易流量，進而對您產生影響？或者您認為這只會改變價格，而您的客戶的貿易流量只會發生很小的變化？

I think, John, it's really too early to tell, exactly how that is. We -- I'm always surprised when tariffs are in. They usually are not as damaging as people expect them to be. On the other hand, where we do see changes that usually comes from areas that we're not expecting either. I know that sounds like a nebulous answer, but oftentimes decisions will also be made months before tariffs in anticipation of them coming, people will be building up stockpile.

約翰，我認為現在說事實究竟如何還為時過早。我們——每當關稅出台時我總是感到驚訝。它們通常不會像人們想像的那樣造成破壞。另一方面，我們確實看到變化，這些變化通常來自我們意想不到的領域。我知道這聽起來像是一個模糊的答案，但通常決定也會在關稅實施前幾個月就做出，為了應對關稅，人們會提前儲備貨物。

You'll see buying habits changing and so forth. In this particular round, I'm not seeing a lot of inventory build from our customers. Again, I can't speak for others. But from our customers, I'm not seeing a big of what I would call a tariff buildup. So maybe that's because again, they're changing almost on a daily basis as to what's valid, what's not and who's getting nailed and who's not.

您會看到購買習慣改變等等。在這一輪特定中，我沒有看到我們的客戶建立大量的庫存。再說一次，我不能代表其他人說話。但從我們的客戶來看，我並沒有看到所謂的關稅大幅上漲。所以也許是因為他們幾乎每天都在改變什麼是有效的，什麼是無效的，誰會被釘住，誰不會被釘住。

So I'm not sure that would be a pretty tough gamble to take saying we're going to build inventory and tie up working capital today for something we think may be coming in May or June of this year in tariffs.

因此，我不確定這是否是一場相當艱難的賭博，我們今天將建立庫存並佔用營運資金，以應對我們認為可能在今年 5 月或 6 月出現的關稅。

Okay. And then the 2025 supply chain financing program, is that a standard factoring program? So the free cash flow increase is temporary until you decide to end that program?

好的。那麼 2025 年供應鏈融資計劃，這是標準的保理計劃嗎？那麼，自由現金流的增加是暫時的，直到您決定終止該計劃？

John, it's Phil -- I'd characterize it as a standard supply chain financing program. And I think we'd indicated that we're targeting about $30 million benefit from that program. You're correct. If we chose to end that program, then theoretically, that would go away. That's not how we're viewing it with being it as a structured program for the future for the company.

約翰，我是菲爾——我將其描述為標準的供應鏈融資計劃。我想我們已經表明，我們的目標是從該計劃中獲得約 3000 萬美元的收益。你是對的。如果我們選擇終止該計劃，那麼從理論上講，它就會消失。我們並不認為這是公司未來的結構化計劃。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

美國銀行的薩爾瓦多‧蒂亞諾 (Salvator Tiano)。

I wanted to follow up a little bit on tariffs and get a better understanding, specifically because the China tariffs should already be in effect. So is there anything you're seeing with regard to, for example, imported MDI or that you would expect in the weeks ahead because this is not theoretical scenario is something that already is in place? And secondly, as we talk about potential antidumping duties for MDI and also for boxes in the U.S., how do you think this will play out together with the standard tariffs, meaning would this be implemented on top of the tariffs? Would it be one or the other? So the 10% China tariff goes away if the U.S.

我想對關稅進行一些追蹤並取得更好的了解，特別是因為中國的關稅應該已經生效了。那麼，您是否看到了有關進口 MDI 的任何情況，或者您是否預計未來幾週會出現什麼情況，因為這不是理論上的情景，而是已經存在的情景？其次，當我們談論美國可能對 MDI 以及盒子徵收反傾銷稅時，您認為這將如何與標準關稅一起發揮作用，這意味著這項關稅是否會在關稅之上實施？是其中之一嗎？因此，如果美國採取上述措施，對中國徵收的 10% 關稅將取消。

goes with antidumping GTs. How do this work out?

與反傾銷GT相一致。這是如何實現的？

I'll try to get the first part of the question and let Phil answer the second part of the question. As we're looking at -- again, I don't think that you see instantaneous cause and effect on tariffs. If you're a large European or Asian company that the chemical company is importing into the U.S. if you're a Chinese company, you've been paying 30% in products like Maliganhydride and MDI, you're now paying 40% depending on how trade negotiations go and how rulings and so forth could come with the Commerce Department, it may go higher than that. Which of those companies may say, I'm not going to produce and move product from China and maybe moving it from Europe or some other location and you might be able to divert some of those tariffs.

我將嘗試解答問題的第一部分，然後讓菲爾回答問題的第二部分。正如我們所看到的——我再說一次，我認為你不會看到關稅的即時因果關係。如果您是一家大型歐洲或亞洲公司，化學公司正在將其產品進口到美國，如果您是一家中國公司，那麼您之前為諸如馬來酸酐和MDI等產品支付的關稅為30%，現在您要支付的關稅為40%，具體取決於貿易談判的進展情況以及商務部的裁決等，關稅可能會更高。這些公司中的哪一家可能會說，我不會生產和運輸來自中國的產品，也許會將其從歐洲或其他地方運輸，這樣你也許可以轉移部分關稅。

But usually, they're going to add costs somewhere in your supply chain. So -- and that, I believe, over time, puts pressure on margins and put pressure to put prices through. So again, I don't believe that what we're seeing today is necessarily tariff related what we may see in the second and third quarter of 2025, you may see some pressure because of that.

但通常他們會在你的供應鏈的某個地方增加成本。所以 — — 我相信，隨著時間的推移，這會給利潤帶來壓力，並給價格帶來壓力。所以，我再說一遍，我認為我們今天看到的不一定與關稅有關，2025 年第二季和第三季可能會出現一些關稅壓力。

And Sal, MDI already had a 30% tariff, so add another 10% to that from China. So that's where we are. That's where we are as you say today. As the investigation when the ITC goes on, I mean typically, those are then additive to those tariffs, but let's just see how the actual investigation evolves over the coming months.

Sal，MDI 的關稅已經是 30%，所以從中國進口的 MDI 還要再加 10%。這就是我們現在的狀況。正如您所說，這就是我們今天所處的境地。隨著美國國際貿易委員會開展調查，我的意思是，通常這些都會增加關稅，但讓我們看看未來幾個月實際調查將如何發展。

Okay. Perfect. And I want to follow up a little bit on potential strategic reviews. I mean, in the past few years, including now, the focus has been on underperforming assets. I'm trying to see whether something can be divested or needs to be shut down.

好的。完美的。我想就潛在的策略評估進行一些跟進。我的意思是，在過去幾年裡，包括現在，重點一直放在表現不佳的資產上。我正在嘗試看看是否可以剝離或需要關閉某些東西。

But what about considering options for assets that are actually performing well like your Advanced Materials division that, as you've highlighted, the margins have been stable despite the turmoil. And even where your surprises, the valuation for Huntsman, perhaps it would make more sense instead of focusing on underperforming assets to focus on realizing the value that the market does not see enhancement in your best assets is something that you would consider?

但是，如果考慮選擇實際上表現良好的資產，例如您的高級材料部門，正如您所強調的那樣，儘管出現動盪，但利潤率一直保持穩定。即使您感到驚訝，對亨斯邁的估值，也許更有意義的是，不是專注於表現不佳的資產，而是專注於實現市場沒有看到的最優質資產的價值提升，這是您會考慮的事情嗎？

Well, I would remind you that our Advanced Materials in Europe are some of our most valuable and highest margin assets we have in the company today. Again, that's in one of the most high cost countries in the world, Switzerland, supplying European customers. So I don't want to completely write off Europe, though, I guess, is Swiss is always argue if they're part of Europe or not. I would just say that I don't want to paint all of Europe is that we're looking at all assets there in the same thing. I will just repeat what we've said on previous calls, that if we have an opportunity to expand if we have an opportunity to exercise merger or M&A in this company, we're going to be leaning very heavily towards looking more like Advanced Materials than any of the other divisions.

嗯，我想提醒你，我們在歐洲的先進材料是我們目前公司最有價值和利潤率最高的資產之一。再次強調，這是世界上成本最高的國家之一，瑞士，為歐洲客戶提供服務。因此，我並不想完全否定歐洲，但我想，瑞士人總是爭論他們是否是歐洲的一部分。我只是想說，我不想把整個歐洲都描繪成同樣的樣子，我們正在以同樣的方式看待那裡的所有資產。我只想重複我們在之前的電話會議上說過的話，如果我們有機會擴張，如果我們有機會在這家公司進行合併或併購，我們將非常傾向於將其更像先進材料部門，而不是任何其他部門。

That's not to say we don't love the other divisions, but it is to say we do want longer term that margin, the lack of volatility and a global footprint that I think is going to be more conducive to investors. So yes, we're not going to look at everything the same.

這並不是說我們不喜歡其他部門，而是說我們確實希望獲得更長期的利潤、缺乏波動性和全球影響力，我認為這將更有利於投資者。所以是的，我們不會以同樣的方式看待所有事物。

Kevin McCarthy, Vertical Research Partners.

凱文·麥卡錫（Kevin McCarthy），垂直研究夥伴。

Peter, would you comment on MDI industry operating rates by region and where you see the tightest and loosest market conditions today?

Peter，您能評估一下各地區的 MDI 產業開工率嗎？

Yes. I believe that you're going to see the loses market conditions today in Europe. And you're probably going to see some of the tightest market conditions in the U.S. But having said that, I think that there's factors when you factor in imports, the impacted imported material is going to take when you look at certain regions or exporting more than their importing MDI. It's it's tough to just say that this is just -- there's 3 different numbers, 3 different regions and never the (inaudible) meet.

是的。我相信你今天會看到歐洲的市場狀況不佳。你可能會看到美國市場狀況最為緊張。很難說這只是——有 3 個不同的數字，3 個不同的地區，而且從來沒有（聽不清楚）見面。

But I think by and large, you probably have the highest amount of excess capacity, and I would add the oldest and highest cost capacity is in Europe. As you look at the global operating rates. I would guess that it's probably north of 85% and south of 90%. That mid- to high 80s sort of a number. And again, that's going to depend again how many companies are shut down at any given point for maintenance, trade flows, you put both, a ship on the water, it's going to be out of action.

但我認為，整體而言，你們可能擁有最高的過剩產能，我想補充一下，歷史最悠久、成本最高的產能都在歐洲。正如你所看到的全球營業率。我猜測它可能位於 85% 以北和 90% 以南。那是 80 年代中後期那種數字。再說一次，這又取決於在特定時間點有多少公司因維護、貿易流動而關閉，如果你把這兩者放在水上，船就會停止運作。

You're going to have a large load of material there for months potentially. So they're just -- I used to give a lot more focus to that MDI capacity utilization. I think it's a number worth following, but I wouldn't read too much into it because there are a lot of variables and factors that go into that.

你可能會在那裡存放大量材料，並且可能要花上幾個月的時間。所以他們只是——我過去更加關注 MDI 的產能利用率。我認為這是一個值得關注的數字，但我不會對其進行過多的解讀，因為其中涉及許多變數和因素。

Understood. And then as a follow-up, in the prepared remarks that you released yesterday evening, Peter, I think you talked about escalation of energy in Europe and specifically natural gas in the region around $15 per MMBtu. How are you and just competitors broadly handling that? In other words, do you foresee a return to some sort of surcharge regime? Are you dealing with it through normal course pricing.

明白了。然後作為後續問題，彼得，在您昨天晚上發布的準備好的評論中，我想您談到了歐洲能源價格的上漲，特別是該地區的天然氣價格上漲至每百萬英熱單位 15 美元左右。您和競爭對手大致如何處理這個問題？換句話說，您是否預見到某種附加費制度將會回歸？您是透過正常課程定價來處理這個問題的嗎？

Maybe you could talk about the next quarter or two and how that might evolve?

也許您可以談談接下來一兩個季度的情況以及其可能如何發展？

Yes. If you look at the natural gas price in Europe a week ago, it was around $16, depending on Louisiana, Texas today, we're paying around $2 and change around $3 per MMBtu. And that's an order of magnitude of 5x between U.S. and in Europe. Depend on where you have your facilities.

是的。如果你看看一周前歐洲的天然氣價格，它大約是 16 美元，而今天根據路易斯安那州和德克薩斯州的情況，我們支付的價格大約是每百萬英熱單位 2 美元左右，零錢大約是 3 美元。美國和歐洲之間的數量級是 5 倍。取決於您的設施位於何處。

If you look through China into that, China is about on par, if not cheaper, depending if they're burning coal or not, which the vast majority of their energy comes from coal, is even more competitive than the U.S. when it comes to electricity and various raw material components. As we look at natural gas pricing today, it's around 1,450. So you've seen a $1.5 drop in Europe, which has gotten very little notice. You saw $1.5 drop in the U.S., it would almost be cataclysmic.

如果你從中國的角度來看，中國的價格與美國差不多，甚至更便宜，這取決於他們是否燒煤，而中國絕大多數能源都來自煤炭，在電力和各種原材料成分方面甚至比美國更具競爭力。讓我們看看今天的天然氣價格，它在 1,450 左右。因此，您會看到歐洲的原油價格下跌了 1.5 美元，但幾乎沒有人注意到這一點。如果你看到美國貨幣下跌 1.5 美元，這幾乎是一場災難。

Nobody would be making any money, making natural gas at a buck and change. So I -- again, we need to be looking at these longer-term trends and so forth. The simple fact of the matter is Europe does not have an energy policy that has anything to do with the production of hydrocarbons, the value of hydrocarbons and the importance of hydrocarbons. And I think this has been costing them for the last couple of years. They're industry.

以一美元零錢的價格生產天然氣，沒人能賺到錢。所以我—再次強調，我們需要關注這些長期趨勢等等。事實很簡單，歐洲沒有與碳氫化合物的生產、碳氫化合物的價值和碳氫化合物的重要性相關的能源政策。我認為這在過去幾年裡一直讓他們付出代價。他們就是工業。

It's going to continue to cost in their industry. So as we look at that, we've seen this coming for some time. I'd remind you that -- I know it's going back in history of 15, 20 years ago, we produced literally 10x the volume, Huntsman did of volume of petrochemicals that amount of time ago, 15, 20 years ago than we do today in Europe. That's astounding to think that we've dropped. Now a lot of that divisions we sold off, we spun off and billions of pounds of that are also parts that were just completely shut down.

他們的行業將繼續承受損失。所以當我們觀察這一點時，我們已經看到這種情況發生有一段時間了。我要提醒你們——我知道回顧 15 到 20 年前的歷史，當時我們生產的石化產品數量實際上是亨斯邁在 15 到 20 年前的 10 倍，比今天歐洲的石化產品數量還要多。想到我們已經落後，真是令人震驚。現在，我們出售或剝離了許多部門，其中價值數十億英鎊的部分也是完全關閉的。

But the thing that we've seen a 90% drop in our chemical production in Europe tells you something about the failure of European energy policy. I'm just glad today as we look at in our portfolio today, we essentially when you think about Advanced Materials and Performance Products, and much of our MDI downstream business and TPUs and so forth, these are not heavy energy-intensive businesses that are reliant on natural gas as we used to be a couple of years ago. So what are we doing to focus, we're focusing on where we can make the most money on the lease energy-intensive capacities and so forth. So we said on past earnings calls, we're going to look at our energy-intensive footprint in Europe and see if there are places outside of Europe, Middle East, U.S., other places where we can perhaps produce this product at a cheaper rate and that's a lot easier said than done, obviously. And we're going to continue to explore alternatives because the longer-term prospects without a sound plan in place just do not seem very good for energy-intensive industries for Europe.

但歐洲化學品產量下降 90% 的事實說明了歐洲能源政策的失敗。我今天很高興，當我們回顧我們今天的投資組合時，基本上當你想到先進材料和性能產品，以及我們的大部分 MDI 下游業務和 TPU 等等時，這些都不是依賴天然氣的重能源密集型業務，就像我們幾年前那樣。那麼我們的重點是什麼呢？因此，我們在過去的財報電話會議上表示，我們將關注我們在歐洲的能源密集型足跡，看看除了歐洲、中東、美國之外，是否還有其他地方可以以更低的成本生產這種產品，顯然，這說起來容易做起來難。我們將繼續探索替代方案，因為如果沒有完善的計劃，歐洲能源密集產業的長期前景似乎並不樂觀。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global.

哈桑·艾哈邁德（Hassan Ahmed），Alembic Global。

Peter and Phil, a question around volumes. You certainly sound a little more positive with regards to the destocking being behind us. You mentioned within polyurethanes. It seems pricing may have dropped out, maybe beginning to pick up a little bit. And in your prepared remarks, you talked about how in 2024, volumes were up 6% across your portfolio, but yet well below normal levels, right?

彼得和菲爾，關於卷有一個問題。對於我們已結束去庫存的進程，您的態度聽起來確實更加積極一些。您提到了聚氨酯。看起來價格可能已經下降，或者可能開始略有回升。在您準備好的發言中，您談到了 2024 年您的投資組合交易量增長了 6%，但仍遠低於正常水平，對嗎？

So I'm just trying to get a sense of as and when the recovery happens, factoring in, restocking, factoring in market growth, what that volumetric uptake may look like, just to get us back to normal and then obviously, they'd be market growth.

因此，我只是想要了解復甦何時發生，考慮到補貨、市場成長，體積吸收量可能會是什麼樣子，只是為了讓我們恢復正常，然後顯然，這將是市場成長。

Well, I think that if you go back just looking at history, you go back to 2021, that was obviously a time when we were sold out. And most all of our production, particularly around polyurethanes. -- since 2021, a -- we've started a splitter in Geismar, Louisiana. So the next go round when we're (inaudible) in a sold-out position. I would hope that we'd have even more value-added downstream components at MDI than more of the bulk commodity grade that we had.

嗯，我認為，如果你回顧歷史，回到 2021 年，那顯然是我們門票銷售一空的時候。以及我們大部分的生產，特別是聚氨酯的生產。 — 自 2021 年起，我們已經在路易斯安那州蓋斯瑪 (Geismar) 啟動了分離器。因此，下一輪我們將（聽不清楚）門票售罄。我希望我們在 MDI 方面能夠擁有比現有大宗商品等級更多的增值下游組件。

We were reliant on a couple of years ago. And I think that when we look at it as a more sold-out position 2018, 2021, I mean these are kind of the times when you see that. And I think, but for COVID, you probably would have seen in '18 through '21 sort of a quasi super cycle that would have taken place over a multiyear period. And we've obviously seen the falloff now. Our biggest issue, I believe, in most of our -- every division we have is volume and polyurethane is going to be volume and margins.

幾年前我們就依賴它了。我認為，當我們將其視為 2018 年、2021 年更暢銷的位置時，這就是你會看到這種情況的時候。我認為，如果不是因為新冠疫情，你可能會在 2018 年到 2021 年看到一個持續多年時間的準超級週期。現在我們顯然已經看到了下滑的跡象。我認為，我們每個部門面臨的最大問題都是產量，而聚氨酯面臨的最大問題就是產量和利潤。

Very helpful, Peter. And as a follow-up, in a world with tariffs, certain product areas, antidumping duties and the like. As you look at your portfolio, I mean, it's obviously more global than your competitors from a sort of positioning perspective in this sort of tires antidumping duty environment, would you consider the geographic positioning of your portfolio as a major advantage relative to your competitors?

非常有幫助，彼得。接下來，在一個有關稅、特定產品領域、反傾銷稅等的世界裡。當您審視您的投資組合時，我的意思是，從定位的角度來看，在這種輪胎反傾銷稅環境下，它顯然比您的競爭對手更加全球化，您是否認為您的投資組合的地理定位是相對於競爭對手的一個主要優勢？

Yes. I really can't -- I'm reluctant to speak about our competitors, especially since I've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 lawyers on -- no, I've only got 1 lawyer at the table here. But I would -- I like the idea that over time, we followed on what ICI started 20-some-odd deal that as you produce where you sell and you don't become reliant on global trading, which coming from ICI probably sounds a bit strange. But anyways, it's having those global footprints. I look around the world right now, easily 90-plus percent of what we produce is sold within those respective regions. And I think that, for us, that's a very good fit.

是的。我真的不能——我不願意談論我們的競爭對手，特別是因為我有 1、2、3、4、5、6 位律師在場——不，這裡只有 1 位律師在場。但我會——我喜歡這個想法，隨著時間的推移，我們會遵循 ICI 發起的 20 多項交易，即你在生產的地方銷售，並且不會依賴全球貿易，這對 ICI 來說可能聽起來有點奇怪。但無論如何，它都有全球足跡。我現在環顧世界各地，我們生產的 90% 以上產品都在相應的地區銷售。我認為這對我們來說非常合適。

Josh Spector, UBS.

瑞銀的喬希·斯佩克特（Josh Spector）

First, I just wanted to ask on the corporate cost for 2025. I mean the costs haven't come down in the last few years despite the cost savings. Can you just go through why?

首先，我只想問一下 2025 年的企業成本。我的意思是，儘管成本有所節省，但過去幾年成本卻沒有下降。你能解釋一下原因嗎？

Sorry, Josh, can you repeat that?

抱歉，喬希，你能再說一次嗎？

Yes. So just why haven't your corporate costs come down from $165 million over the last 2 to 3 years despite the cost savings?

是的。那麼，為什麼儘管成本有所節省，但過去 2 至 3 年間貴公司的成本並沒有從 1.65 億美元降下來呢？

Yes. I mean, I think our corporate costs ultimately have come down from a high of about $199 million a couple of years ago to $175 million. They were $160-odd million today. You've got inflation running through that, Josh. Just as we said, we run at $40 million to $50 million of inflation overall.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們的公司成本最終已經從幾年前的 1.99 億美元的高點降至 1.75 億美元。如今，這一數字已超過 1.6 億美元。喬希，你已經遇到通貨膨脹了。正如我們所說的，我們總體的通貨膨脹率為 4,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元。

In addition to that, we've had some more LIFO losses. And in addition to that, some FX impacts as well. But in general, the underlying costs have been coming down.

除此之外，我們還遭受了一些後進先出法的損失。除此之外，還會產生一些外匯影響。但總體而言，基礎成本一直在下降。

Okay. Fair enough. If I could follow up from an earlier question, just specifically around Europe and the downstream system houses that you're making some changes to I just want to clarify, what's your plan for Europe then with that business? Do you sell more polymeric and monomeric MDI and less formulations and your services costs are lower and therefore, that's how you get back to profitability? Or is there a different strategy at play to how you approach that region?

好的。很公平。如果我可以接著之前的問題繼續問下去，具體圍繞歐洲以及您正在進行的下游系統公司進行的一些變革，我只想澄清一下，那麼您對歐洲的業務計劃是什麼？您銷售的聚合物和單體 MDI 是否較多而配方銷售較少，而且服務成本較低，因此您如何恢復盈利能力？或者你們在處理該地區問題時是否採取了不同的策略？

No. I think look, you've got demand is coming down. We've got excess capacity in some of our system houses and you fill out the most efficient, most flexible system houses that you've got, you fill those out and where you've got excess capacity, you remove the excess capacity. And unfortunately, in a region that has continued to deindustrialize that pie has just gotten smaller and smaller over the last couple of years. So yes, we're going to have to just unfortunately, look at our asset base and align that with where our customers are, where they're investing, a lot of European auto companies, for example, are investing more in new products and new applications.

不。我認為，你的需求正在下降。我們的一些系統公司有過剩的產能，您可以填補我們擁有的最高效、最靈活的系統公司，填補這些公司產能過剩的部分，然後消除過剩的產能。不幸的是，在一個持續去工業化的地區，在過去幾年裡，這個蛋糕變得越來越小。所以是的，不幸的是，我們必須審視我們的資產基礎，並將其與我們的客戶所在地、他們的投資地點相結合，例如，許多歐洲汽車公司正在對新產品和新應用進行更多投資。

And in the U.S. and in China. So some of that capacity and some of that work that was formerly done in Europe is going to be done elsewhere and we've got to follow the customers and where the applications are taking place. But as we have excess capacity, we also need to remove it.

在美國和中國也是如此。因此，以前在歐洲完成的部分產能和工作將轉移到其他地方進行，我們必須關注客戶以及應用的發生地。但由於我們的產能過剩，我們也需要將其去除。

Aleksey Yefremov, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場公司的 Aleksey Yefremov。

Peter, thanks for your commentary on MDI pricing in the U.S. And I realize that there isn't just one price out there. You described that. Nevertheless, on (inaudible) Announced a $0.15 per pound increase here. So could you maybe approximately size the order of magnitude of what you are trying to achieve or what do you see your competitors trying to achieve relative to maybe that $0.15 per pound for 1 of the grades are we talking about $0.05 per pound, $0.10 or $0.15 that you're hoping to achieve by, let's say, middle of the year?

彼得，感謝您對美國 MDI 定價的評論。你描述過那件事。儘管如此，（聽不清楚）還是宣布每磅價格上漲 0.15 美元。那麼您能否大致估算一下您想要實現的目標的數量級，或者您認為您的競爭對手想要實現的目標，相對於某個等級的每磅 0.15 美元，我們說的是每磅 0.05 美元，0.10 美元還是 0.15 美元，您希望在年中實現這個目標？

Our price increase that went out before 1 was, by the way, was at least $0.10 per pound. And again, that's -- some people were going to try to ramp that through as quickly as possible. Others you're going to have pricing protection and others certain other applications, they may see more, they may see less than that. But ours is less or at least $0.10 per pound.

順便說一下，我們在 1 點之前就已經將價格上調了至少 0.10 美元/磅。再說一次，有些人會試著盡快完成這項任務。對於其他應用程序，您將獲得價格保護，對於其他某些應用程序，他們可能會看到更多，也可能會看到更少。但我們的價格較低，至少每磅 0.10 美元。

Very helpful. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask you about (inaudible) . So you're describing qualification initiatives. So can you maybe tell us what's been achieved with (inaudible) in '24 and whether your outlook and timeline for commercial scale-up of this product has changed?

非常有幫助。作為後續問題，我想問你（聽不清楚）。所以您正在描述資格舉措。那麼您能否告訴我們 (聽不清楚) 在 24 年取得了什麼成就，以及您對該產品商業化擴大的前景和時間表是否發生了變化？

Yes. In the past year, we have expanded to a 30-ton reactor. This gives us when this reactor will give us two things. It will give us a product that we can start producing at a commercial scale and commercial economics and it will also give us product from which we can start qualifications in a number of different applications. And so for us, we believe that during 2025, we will see production out of that 30-ton reactor that will be going to market that will be sold into the market and we'll be going to a phase that is larger than that reaction.

是的。在過去的一年裡，我們擴大到30噸的反應爐。這意味著該反應器將為我們帶來兩樣東西。它將為我們提供一種可以在商業規模和商業經濟上開始生產的產品，它也將為我們提供可以在許多不同的應用中開始認證的產品。因此對我們來說，我們相信在 2025 年，我們將看到該 30 噸反應器的生產並進入市場並在市場上銷售，我們將進入比該反應更大的階段。

And that will be started is -- that will be a 5,000 kiloton reactor that will be -- that will be started up probably sometime next year. At that point, I'd say a 5,000-ton reactor, not 5,000 kiloton. I'd be great if we could get 5k reactor. If we -- that, I believe, is probably just from the physics point of view, as large as you can go, and then you start multiplying that size of reactor. So that will give us the same materials of the reactor we have today.

即將啟動的是一座 5,000 千噸的反應堆，大概會在明年某個時候啟動。到那時，我會說是 5,000 噸的反應堆，而不是 5,000 千噸。如果我們能夠獲得 5k 反應器就太好了。如果我們 — — 我相信，這可能只是從物理的角度看，盡可能大，然後你開始增加反應爐的尺寸。這樣我們就能得到與今天反應器相同的材料。

It will just give us better economics than what we have today. So a bit more developmental work to do on the reactor side, but we do have products that we are taking into the market and we are working with a number of applications. First of those that we hope to get it will probably be in EV battery applications that we hope to be reporting on later this year.

它只會為我們帶來比今天更好的經濟狀況。因此，在反應器方面還有很多開發工作要做，但我們確實有一些產品正在推向市場，並且正在開發一些應用。我們首先希望獲得的可能是電動車電池應用，我們希望在今年稍後報告相關情況。

Michael Sison, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的麥可·西森。

I understand difficulty in looking beyond the first quarter. But Peter, is there a potential that 2Q EBITDA sequentially should be better than 1Q or maybe the way to ask it is, what do you think needs to happen to see a sequential improvement. Are you seeing any hints from customers that demand seasonally should uplift in 2Q? So just kind of your general thoughts of how EBITDA could get better as the year unfolds.

我理解展望第一季之後的情況會很困難。但是 Peter，第二季的 EBITDA 是否有可能比第一季更好，或者可以問的是，您認為需要做什麼才能看到連續的改善。您是否看到客戶暗示第二季季節性需求將會提升？所以，您只是總體認為隨著時間的推移，EBITDA 將會如何變得更好。

Yes. And I know this sounds like a really simplistic answer. But seasonally, yes, we will see an improvement in earnings just because we're now starting to get that April, May, June construction time period whereas first quarter, they're not -- there's not as much construction going on. And I do believe that we will see some traction in pricing on MDI's during the second quarter as well. I'm very hopeful on that.

是的。我知道這個答案聽起來過於簡單了。但從季節性來看，是的，我們會看到收益有所改善，因為我們現在開始進入四月、五月、六月的施工期，而第一季則沒有那麼多施工。我確實相信我們在第二季也會看到 MDI 價格的一定幅度上漲。我對此充滿希望。

I want to be absolutely clear, we won't know until customers pay the invoice. We can make all the announcements we want until we start getting more money from our customers [were] not successful. So I think between seasonality and improvement in pricing in PU, Advanced Materials, again, that's not a highly cyclical or seasonal business and performance products, that will improve as we see further acceptance of our means going into new market applications. And as you see, UPR [malate] derivatives to improve during the construction seasonality as well. So yes, I would hope -- certainly hope that Q2 would be better than Q1 month.

我想絕對清楚地說明，只有在客戶支付發票後我們才會知道。我們可以發布所有我們想要發布的公告，直到我們從客戶那裡獲得更多錢。因此，我認為，在季節性和聚氨酯、先進材料定價的改善之間，這不是一個高度週期性或季節性的業務和性能產品，隨著我們看到我們的方法進一步被接受進入新的市場應用，這種情況將會改善。如您所見，UPR [蘋果酸] 衍生物在建築季節性期間也會有所改善。所以是的，我希望——當然希望第二季會比第一季更好。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up. I think you mentioned that China MDI prices are a 3-year highs. I don't suspect that China MDI margins are a 3-year high. So if they're not, maybe you can give us a thought where they are and what needs to happen for the margins to improve.

知道了。然後只是快速的跟進。我記得您曾提到中國 MDI 價格創 3 年來新高。我並不懷疑中國MDI利潤率會達到三年來的最高水準。如果不是，也許您可以告訴我們他們的利潤率在哪裡，以及需要採取哪些措施才能提高利潤率。

Yes. I don't want to get into the granularity on an EBITDA on a regional basis. But I would say that right now, I would be very happy if if all the regions were at the same margin [as] China. And look, what we need in China more than anything else is demand. It'd be great to see some sort of a stimulus that would -- we saw the burst thing, I believe, just my personal opinion.

是的。我不想從區域角度詳細討論 EBITDA。但我想說，現在如果所有地區的差距都跟中國一樣大，我會很高興。你看，中國最需要的是需求。如果能看到某種刺激措施那就太好了——我相信我們看到了爆發，這只是我個人的看法。

We saw bursting of a housing bubble that probably started back in the 80s and I think it was probably one of the longest, most sustained housing bubbles that was formed as hundreds of millions of people went from rural into urban living and China benefited greatly during that time period. Obviously, that slowed down. And to the extent that recovers to get some traction, I think that would be a huge plus.

我們看到了房地產泡沫的破滅，它大概始於 80 年代，我認為那可能是最長、最持久的房地產泡沫之一，它形成於數億人從農村轉移到城市生活，中國在那段時期受益匪淺。顯然，這一速度已經放緩。我認為，如果經濟能夠在某種程度上復甦並獲得一些動力，那將是一個巨大的優勢。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

On Slide 13, the dividend from equity affiliate guidance for 2025 shows a $75 million headwind year-over-year. It seems like a pretty large number in the context of your contribution from the China PO MTBE plant, I think, was about $39 million of equity income in 2024. So could you help us understand the moving parts on the $75 million

在投影片 13 上，2025 年股權附屬公司指引的股利顯示年減 7,500 萬美元。考慮到您對中國 PO MTBE 工廠的貢獻，這個數字似乎相當大，我認為，2024 年的股權收入約為 3900 萬美元。那麼你能幫助我們了解這筆 7,500 萬美元的變動部分嗎？

Yes, Matthew, good question. So 2 items which I see that headwind one you talked about, which is all around the MTB margins and how those have deteriorated fairly significantly from the second half of '24 and have remained very low here in the first part of '25. So that's one part. The other part, you may recall that we had an approximately $40 million dividend as a result of the restructuring of our Chinese MDI joint venture, the so-called SLIC joint venture and that was a one-off, which I think we highlighted at the time. That goes away, and therefore, it's a headwind in 2025.

是的，馬修，這個問題問得好。所以我看到有 2 個項目，即您提到的逆風項目，它們都圍繞著 MTB 利潤率，以及這些利潤率從 24 年下半年開始大幅下降，並且在 25 年上半年一直保持在非常低的水平。這是其中的一部分。另一部分，您可能還記得，由於我們中國 MDI 合資企業（即所謂的 SLIC 合資企業）的重組，我們獲得了大約 4000 萬美元的股息，這是一次性的，我認為我們當時強調了這一點。這種情況將會消失，因此，這將成為 2025 年的阻力。

Great. And then could you also clarify on the European notes that will be repaid in the first quarter, is that going to be a straight payoff with cash? Or do you expect to refinance those notes?

偉大的。然後，您能否澄清一下第一季將償還的歐洲票據，是否直接以現金償還？或者您希望對這些票據進行再融資？

No, we don't expect to refinance those. We took out a 2034 notes in quarter -- end of quarter 3, quarter 4 of last year for $350 million, which we then swapped to about a 4.25% rate. So no, that will be a straight payoff, which we'll do in the first quarter.

不，我們不希望為此進行再融資。我們在去年第三季末、第四季取出了 3.5 億美元的 2034 年票據，然後我們將其兌換成約 4.25% 的利率。所以不會，這將是直接的回報，我們會在第一季完成。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大（Laurence Alexander），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

I have 2 questions. One is if the U.S. construction market recovers and U.S. MDI becomes relatively tight, if there isn't a broader inflation cycle to destroy demand or some other demand shock. What would you see as the natural break point for the regional spread in margins?

我有兩個問題。一是如果美國建築市場復甦，美國 MDI 供應相對緊張，且沒有出現更大範圍的通膨週期來破壞需求或出現其他需求衝擊。您認為區域利潤率擴張的自然斷點是什麼？

Is there any safety valve, any obvious product substitution that we should be thinking about in terms of what would regulate the -- where U.S. margins sit relative to the rest of the world. And then secondly, if things do tighten back up, just extrapolating from your green shoots and maybe I'm being too optimistic and you get a return to a decent run rate on free cash flow. What are your priorities in terms of capital returns, deleveraging portfolio shifts to reduce cyclicality going forward?

是否存在任何安全閥，任何明顯的產品替代品，我們應該考慮如何調節——美國利潤率相對於世界其他地區的位置。其次，如果情況確實回暖，那麼只需從你的綠芽中推斷，也許我太樂觀了，你就可以獲得自由現金流的可觀運行率。在資本回報、去槓桿、投資組合轉變以減少未來週期性方面，您的優先事項是什麼？

Yes. Lauren, good to hear from you. I would love to test your hypothesis and see how high we could get prices before we start to see things. And also, I think that there's 3 things, keep in mind. First of all, let's think about what the application is going to be some applications have pretty low content of MDI.

是的。勞倫，很高興收到你的來信。我很想驗證你的假設，看看在我們開始看到事情之前我們能得到多高的價格。此外，我認為有三件事要記住。首先，讓我們考慮一下應用程式是什麼，有些應用程式的 MDI 含量相當低。

And so you can get prices couldn't probably close to double in MDI and it's not going to hurt the downstream application all that much. But when you talk about construction per se, number two, you're looking at products that, let's just say, spray for home insulation. You've got competing products there in fiberglass, mineral wool and so forth that you're competing against. And so the higher you push the price up for spray foam and the more competition you're going to be have coming in on your mineral fiber and so forth. As you look at OSB, I would imagine in places where it's still -- you're still able to use it, you'd see from Aldehyde products and so forth.

因此，MDI 的價格可能不會上漲一倍，而且不會對下游應用造成太大損害。但是當你談論建築本身時，第二，你正在看的產品，就比如說，用於家庭隔熱的噴塗產品。您的競爭對手有玻璃纖維、礦棉等等。因此，噴塗泡沫的價格越高，礦物纖維等方面的競爭就越激烈。當您看到 OSB 時，我可以想像在它仍然可以使用的地方，您會看到醛類產品等等。

So eventually, you start hitting product substitutions. Some of that's going to be at a lower price point than not. A lot of that depends on what your overall content of MDI is going to be. The third area that I would just factor in is if margins get out of kilter, if you will, comparison to the other regions. You will see amazingly, you do see people that actually produce MDI in Europe and ship it to the U.S.

因此最終你開始進行產品替代。有些的價格會比沒有的價格低。這很大程度上取決於 MDI 的整體內容。我要考慮的第三個面向是利潤率是否失去平衡，如果你願意的話，可以與其他地區進行比較。你會驚訝地發現，確實有人在歐洲生產 MDI 並將其運往美國。

even in today's allows the economics. I'm not sure how that works. But according to trade data, you still have companies that are doing that. So as your margins go up disproportionate to the other 2 regions, you are going to attract more imports. Some of that's going to be impacted by tariffs.

即使在今天的經濟條件下。我不確定這是如何運作的。但根據貿易數據，仍有一些公司在這樣做。因此，當您的利潤率相對於其他兩個地區不成比例地上升時，您將吸引更多的進口。其中部分將受到關稅的影響。

Others have it much less so. So I think factoring those 3 things, where do you have -- what is your content per end use application. What is your competitive materials? And thirdly, at what point do you start attracting imports coming in and flooding the market, if you will.

其他人的情況就沒那麼好了。因此，我認為考慮這三個因素，您擁有什麼——每個最終用途應用程式的內容是什麼。你的競爭材料是什麼？第三，如果你願意的話，你什麼時候開始吸引進口產品進入並湧入市場？

Laurence, on capital allocation. Look, as you think about a portfolio that heads back towards mid-cycle over time. Debt levels, I think I've said, we're comfortable with the debt levels of long-term debt of about $1.5 billion. I think that's appropriate for this portfolio. CapEx running today, $180 million to $190 million, probably a little light if you move towards a midsize level of earnings.

勞倫斯，談論資本配置。你看，想像一下隨著時間的推移投資組合會回到中期週期。關於債務水平，我想我已經說過了，我們對約 15 億美元的長期債務水平感到滿意。我認為這對這個投資組合來說是合適的。目前的資本支出為 1.8 億至 1.9 億美元，如果您朝著中等規模的獲利水準發展，這個數字可能有點低。

So more like think about $230 million, $240 million on a mid-cycle level. Dividends want to remain competitive from a dividend standpoint, it's a 6% yield today. That's obviously of trough economics right now. And then we'll get into -- once we are delivering excess free cash flow well in excess of our dividend, then we'll get into the into the debate of the share repurchase versus M&A on our Advanced Materials business, which we continue to want to build over time. So hopefully, that's the way to think about capital allocations, we move back towards mid-cycle earnings over time.

因此，更像是考慮中期週期水準的 2.3 億美元、2.4 億美元。從股息的角度來看，股息希望保持競爭力，今天的收益率為 6%。這顯然是當前經濟的低谷。然後我們就會進入——一旦我們提供的自由現金流遠遠超過我們的股息，那麼我們就會進入關於股票回購與先進材料業務的併購的爭論，我們希望隨著時間的推移繼續建立這項業務。所以希望，這是思考資本配置的方式，隨著時間的推移，我們會回到中期收益。

And operator, we've Laurence, thank you very much. And operator, we've typically like to end at the top of the hour. Why don't we take 1 more question, and then we'll wrap up the call afterwards.

接線員，我們是勞倫斯，非常感謝。接線員，我們通常喜歡在整點時結束。我們何不再回答一個問題，然後就結束通話。

Arun Viswanathan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的阿倫·維斯瓦納坦 (Arun Viswanathan)。

I guess I just wanted to ask about capital allocation. So obviously, you've undergone a review here in Europe. I think you've mentioned it in the past. Are there other kind of cleanup that you'd like to pursue? And then I guess -- maybe you can discuss leverage and the dividend.

我想我只是想問一下有關資本配置的問題。很明顯，你們已經在歐洲接受了審查。我記得你以前提到過它。您還想進行其他類型的清理嗎？然後我想——也許你可以討論一下槓桿和股息。

Are you still committed there?

你還致力於此嗎？

Yes. I would just say on the dividend, yes, we are very much committed. And as we look out to 2025, we believe that our objective as a management team is to make sure that we cover that dividend. And and then some. So yes, I would say just speaking on behalf of the Board who met just a couple of days ago on our quarterly meeting, that dividend is something that is near sacred to us.

是的。我只想說，關於股息，是的，我們非常致力於此。展望 2025 年，我們相信，作為管理團隊，我們的目標是確保我們能夠支付股利。還有一些。因此是的，我謹代表幾天前剛召開季度會議的董事會發言，股息對我們來說近乎神聖。

Capital allocation to other areas.

資金配置到其他領域。

I think as we said on the call, we're focused on a number of restructuring some of our asset footprint. We've talked about the downstream areas in Europe. We're going through a strategic review on maleic anhydride. Arun, you know, Peter listed a lot of actions that we've taken over the last 3 years, and we'll continue to look at our portfolio on a regular basis. In terms of overall leverage, we closed at 3.6x.

我想正如我們在電話會議上所說的那樣，我們正專注於重組部分資產足跡。我們已經討論了歐洲的下游地區。我們正在對馬來酸酐進行策略性審查。阿倫，你知道，彼得列出了我們在過去三年中採取的許多行動，我們將繼續定期審查我們的投資組合。就整體槓桿率而言，我們收在 3.6 倍。

I do expect a bit of a kickup in the first quarter just because of a natural free cash outflow in the first quarter. But as you look out with this portfolio over a number of years, you see that coming down as you return to more mid-cycle level of earnings over time.

我確實預計第一季會出現一些成長，僅僅是因為第一季自然的自由現金流出。但如果你觀察幾年後的投資組合，你會發現，隨著時間的推移，收益將回到中期週期水平，而這個數字則會下降。

Operator, we'd like to thank everybody for joining us this morning, and we'll look forward to meeting hopefully all of you during the next quarter here.

接線員，我們感謝大家今天早上加入我們，我們期待下個季度在這裡與大家見面。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路。祝你剩餘的時光愉快。