Hesai Group (HSAI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for Hesai Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference call is being recorded.

各位女士、先生，大家好。感謝您參加及賽集團2023年第四季及全年業績電話會議。 （操作說明）請注意，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to our first speaker today, Yuanting Shi, the company's Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給今天的第一位發言人，公司投資者關係總監石元廷先生。請您發言。

Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining Hesai Group's fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings conference call. Our earnings release is now available on our IR website at investor.hesaitech.com, as well as via newswire services. Today, you will hear from our CEO, Dr. David Li, who will start the call with an overview of our recent updates. Next, our Global CFO, Mr. Louis Hsieh, will address our financial results before we open the call for questions.

謝謝接線生。大家好。感謝各位參加及賽集團2023年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我們的業績報告現已發佈在投資者關係網站investor.hesaitech.com以及各大新聞通訊社。今天，我們的執行長李大衛博士將首先概述公司近期的最新進展。接下來，我們的全球財務長謝路易先生將介紹我們的財務業績，之後我們將開放問答環節。

Before we continue, I refer you to the safe harbor statement in our earnings press release, which applies to this call, as we will make forward-looking statements. Please also note that the company will discuss non-GAAP measures today, which are more thoroughly explained and reconciled to the most comparable measures reported under GAAP in our earnings release and SEC filings.

在繼續之前，請各位參閱我們盈利新聞稿中的“安全港聲明”，該聲明適用於本次電話會議，因為我們將做出前瞻性陳述。另請注意，該公司今天還將討論非GAAP財務指標，這些指標在我們的獲利新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件中已有更詳細的解釋，並與GAAP下報告的最可比指標進行了核對。

With that, I'm pleased to turn over the call to our CEO, Dr. David Li. David, please go ahead.

接下來，我很高興將電話交給我們的執行長李大衛博士。李大衛，請開始。

Thank you, Yuanting, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. 2023 was a landmark year for Hesai. We not only continue to substantially outperform our LiDAR peers, but also extended our leading market share with stellar full year results across revenues, total shipments and the blended gross margin, all of which surpassed our previous expectations. Furthermore, we created a virtuous cycle of cost control and economies of scale and achieved multiple significant milestones on our path to profitability.

感謝袁庭，也感謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。 2023年是合賽雷射雷達發展歷程中具有里程碑意義的一年。我們不僅繼續大幅超越雷射雷達領域的同行，而且憑藉全年營收、總出貨量和綜合毛利率的優異表現，進一步鞏固了我們領先的市場份額，所有業績均超出預期。此外，我們實現了成本控制和規模經濟的良性循環，並在實現盈利的道路上取得了多項重要里程碑。

For instance, our operating cash flow for the full year of 2023 reached positive territory, a feat unparalleled within the industry. These remarkable accomplishments reflect our unwavering commitment to sustain and responsible growth to our mission of reducing accident, saving lives and making global transportation safer for everyone.

例如，我們2023年全年的經營現金流實現了正成長，這在業界是前所未有的。這些卓越的成就體現了我們堅定不移地致力於永續和負責任的成長，以實現減少事故、拯救生命、讓全球交通更安全的使命。

Let's delve into our fourth quarter business update. On the domestic side, we achieved a significant milestone in the fourth quarter by expanding our collaboration with one of the world's largest EV manufacturers based in China. Our extended cooperation encompasses another fresh lineup of vehicle models that are set to debut starting 2024. In addition, we were recently selected by Li Auto, as the exclusive LiDAR provider for their MEGA MPV platform. Li Auto also may ADAS standard equipment on their popular L7 and L8 Pro versions, immediately added hundreds of thousands of LiDAR units to Hesai's growing order book.

讓我們深入了解我們第四季的業務進展。在國內市場，我們在第四季度取得了一項重要里程碑式的成就，即擴大了與一家總部位於中國的全球最大電動車製造商的合作。此次合作涵蓋了一系列全新車型，預計於2024年開始陸續推出。此外，我們近期也被理想汽車選定為其MEGA MPV平台的獨家光達供應商。理想汽車還將在其熱門車型L7和L8 Pro上標配ADAS系統，這立即為和賽汽車不斷增長的訂單量增加了數十萬台雷射雷達。

We also recently forged new strategic partnerships with Great Wall Motor, one of China's largest auto brands, and Leapmotor, who has recently formed a joint venture with Stellantis to include joint research endeavors and the integration of a variety of LiDARs into their vehicle models with SOP scheduled to commence in 2024. We anticipate that our partnership with these prominent domestic OEMs will soon deepen even further.

我們近期也與中國最大的汽車品牌之一長城汽車以及Leapmotor建立了新的策略合作夥伴關係。 Leapmotor近期與Stellantis成立了一家合資企業，旨在開展聯合研究，並將各種雷射雷達整合到其車型中，預計將於2024年開始量產。我們預計與這些國內知名汽車製造商的合作關係將很快進一步深化。

The EV revolution is in full swing, particularly in China. In 2023, the estimated NOA penetration rate in China stood at 10%. It is projected to increase to over 20% by 2025. OEMs are eager to distinguish themselves through intelligent NOA functions. For instance, as I just mentioned, Li Auto's L8 and L7 Pro models now feature our LiDAR, as a standard configuration with an urban NOA function, which navigates from urban point A to point B with minimal driver intervention. Additionally, LiDAR is increasingly recognized as an essential safety feature just like airbags. Consequently, LiDAR has become a prerequisite for safety-cautious consumers seeking the highest safety standards.

電動車革命正在如火如荼地進行，尤其是在中國。預計2023年，中國NOA（智慧導航輔助系統）的滲透率將達到10%，2025年將超過20%。汽車製造商（OEM）都渴望透過智慧NOA功能脫穎而出。例如，正如我剛才提到的，理想汽車的L8和L7 Pro車型現在標配了我們的雷射雷達（LiDAR）和城市NOA功能，該功能可以自動導航，在駕駛員幹預極少的情況下從城市A點到達B點。此外，光達正日益被視為與安全氣囊一樣重要的安全功能。因此，對於注重安全、追求最高安全標準的消費者來說，光達已成為必備配置。

Moreover, as the industry advances towards L2+ and L3 autonomous driving systems, a transformative trend is emerging with ADAS systems equipped with LiDAR configurations, making their way into passenger cars in a growing range of price categories. This evolution began with vehicles priced at RMB 400,000 range in 2022 to RMB 300,000 range in 2023 and now has extended to models priced near RMB 150,000 range in 2024, as illustrated by the recent launch of Leapmotors latest EV model.

此外，隨著產業向L2+和L3級自動駕駛系統發展，配備雷射雷達（LiDAR）的ADAS系統正成為一種變革性趨勢，並逐漸應用於價格區間不斷擴大的乘用車領域。這一發展趨勢始於2022年售價40萬元人民幣左右的車型，2023年降至30萬元人民幣左右，如今已擴展至2024年售價接近15萬元人民幣的車型，正如Leapmotors近期發布的最新電動車型所展現的那樣。

The widening accessibility of LiDAR technology across affordable price categories represent a transformative phenomenon for our industry, unveiling a mass market opportunity 10x to 20x larger than the previously served premium sector only. The catalyst signal is a key inflection point for ADAS and LiDAR adoption in China and the rest of the world.

光達技術在價格親民的細分市場中日益普及，這對我們行業而言是一個變革性的現象，它展現了一個比以往僅限於高端市場的市場規模大10到20倍的大眾市場機會。這項催化劑訊號標誌著ADAS和雷射雷達在中國乃至全球的普及應用迎來了一個關鍵轉折點。

China has maintained its global leadership in EV production and the sales for 9 consecutive years, commending a majority market share exceeding 60% worldwide. Meanwhile, Chinese OEMs commenced the mass EV production in 2021, 2022, in contrast to global OEM time line, which mass EV production is anticipated to begin around 2025 and 2026. In other words, China EV industry is approximately 5 years ahead of the global curve.

中國已連續9年維持全球電動車生產和銷售的領先地位，市佔率超過60%。同時，中國汽車製造商已於2021年和2022年開始大規模生產電動車，而全球汽車製造商的大規模生產預計要到2025年和2026年左右才會開始。換句話說，中國電動車產業領先全球約5年。

We are in the right place at just the right time to capture the opportunity with accumulative shipments surpassing 300,000 LiDAR units by end of 2023, Hesai has not only realized financial advantages through economies of scale, but also [amass] significant technological expertise and a profound understanding of mass production and a quality management system. This serves as a compelling evidence of our established proficiency for global OEMs, particularly those who may be more conservative in vendor selection due to past unsuccessful attempts with our U.S. and European peers. Armed with this strength, we are well positioned to compete successfully on a global stage.

我們正處於天時地利人和的絕佳時機，預計在2023年底前實現累計雷射雷達出貨量超過30萬台。 Hesai不僅透過規模經濟實現了財務優勢，還累積了雄厚的技術實力、對大規模生產和品質管理系統的深刻理解。這有力地證明了我們在全球OEM廠商中的成熟實力，尤其對於那些因過去與美國和歐洲同行合作不順而在供應商選擇上較為保守的廠商而言，更是如此。憑藉這一優勢，我們已做好充分準備，在全球市場中脫穎而出。

Let me walk you through some of the specifics. First, Hesai's pioneering R&D initiatives are defining the LiDAR industry's product development trajectory. In January 2024, we unveiled AT512, our NextGen ultra-long-range flagship ADAS LiDAR scheduled for mass production in 2025. This cutting-edge technology is establishing new industry benchmarks, boasting the highest available detection range and resolution. It not only outperforms industry's competitors by a significant degree, but also challenges long-standing misconceptions about technical bottlenecks, including the notion that only LiDAR designed with 1550-nanometer wavelength can detect beyond 250 meters.

讓我為您詳細介紹一下。首先，和賽科技的開創性研發措施正在引領光達產業產品發展的方向。 2024年1月，我們發表了AT512，這款新一代超遠程旗艦級ADAS雷射雷達計畫於2025年量產。這項尖端技術樹立了新的產業標桿，擁有目前最高的探測距離和解析度。它不僅在性能上遠超同類產品，還挑戰了長期以來關於技術瓶頸的誤解，例如只有採用1550奈米波長設計的光達才能探測250米以外的目標。

Standing out with industry-leading performance across every key metric, AT512 greatly enhances the vehicle's perception capability by detecting objects at least twice as far away as competing LiDARs in its category, given the intelligent driving system over 40% more reaction time to make the safer decisions. As the CEO of a leading global OEM declared, when it comes to safety, the second best of LiDAR isn't good enough.

AT512在所有關鍵指標上均展現出業界領先的性能，顯著提升了車輛的感知能力。與同類競品雷射雷達相比，AT512的偵測距離至少提升了兩倍，使智慧駕駛系統能夠更快做出更安全的決策，反應速度提升超過40%。正如一家全球領先的汽車製造商的執行長所言，在安全方面，光達的性能只能達到次優水平，這是遠遠不夠的。

We firmly believe that investing in development of the best LiDAR products, which not only meet, but exceed the dynamic demand of the market provides substantial long-term benefits to society, as well as our company and stakeholders. We are seeing various new LiDAR debuts at 2024 CES event in Las Vegas reflect a technological conversions towards our innovation direction.

我們堅信，投資研發不僅滿足且超越市場動態需求的最佳光達產品，將為社會、公司及利害關係人帶來巨大的長期效益。在2024年拉斯維加斯消費電子展（CES）上，我們看到各種新型光達的亮相，這正體現了我們技術轉型方向的創新。

Several competitors, who have traditionally emphasized the use of the 1550-nanometer lasers or MEMS technologies are now unveiling products based on rotating mirror scanning system for the 905-nanometer laser. This underscores a growing recognition of the benefits of our technologies offers in terms of cost, performance and reliability. Our leadership and [ingenuity] were recognized at CES event, where our groundbreaking ultra-thin long-range in-cabin LiDAR ET25, won the prestigious 2024 Innovation Award at CES.

一些傳統上專注於使用1550奈米雷射或MEMS技術的競爭對手，如今也開始推出基於905奈米雷射旋轉鏡掃描系統的產品。這凸顯了市場對我們技術在成本、性能和可靠性方面優勢的日益認可。我們在CES展會上憑藉突破性的超薄遠程車載雷射雷達ET25榮獲2024年CES創新獎，展現了我們的領先地位和創新能力。

Second, we firmly believe that mass production at scale is the only way to ensure sustained operation, effectively manage cost and cultivate enduring trust with our customers. As of now, we operate 2 major factories, our Maxwell center in Shanghai, focusing on new product R&D and testing and our Hertz Center in Hangzhou, a facility dedicated to mass production, boasting an unprecedented automation rate of over 90% unparalleled in the global LiDAR industry. By the end of 2023, we achieved an annualized production run rate of over 800,000 units, a figure we project to rise to [1.5 million to 2 million] by end of 2024. Meanwhile, we expect to accumulate, we ship over 2 million LiDAR units to the market by end of 2025.

其次，我們堅信，規模化量產是確保持續營運、有效控製成本並與客戶建立長久信任的唯一途徑。目前，我們經營兩家主要工廠：位於上海的麥克斯韋中心，專注於新產品研發和測試；以及位於杭州的赫茲中心，該中心致力於大規模生產，自動化率高達90%以上，在全球雷射雷達行業中遙遙領先。 2023年底，我們的年化產量將超過80萬台，預計到2024年底將達到150萬至200萬台。同時，我們預計到2025年底，光達的累計出貨量將超過200萬台。

Third, beyond manufacturing capability, stable quality and reliability have emerged as crucial indicators for OEMs when considering mass installation of LiDAR systems. LiDAR systems require the sophisticated integration of [optics], mechanics, electronics, as such, quality and precisions are paramount. Amid intense competition and widespread adoption of ADAS systems, LiDAR product [materially] has become EV manufacturers primarily concern. From OEM's perspective, there's no better indicator of our products' superior quality and reliability than their outstanding long-term performance in real-life road conditions.

第三，除了製造能力之外，穩定的品質和可靠性已成為整車廠在考慮大規模安裝光達系統時的關鍵指標。光達系統需要光學、機械和電子元件的精密集成，因此，品質和精度至關重要。在競爭激烈且ADAS系統廣泛應用的背景下，光達產品已成為電動車製造商最為關注的重點。從整車廠的角度來看，產品在實際道路條件下的優異長期性能，是衡量其卓越品質和可靠性的最佳指標。

Drawing upon these assets know-how, we are confident in our ability to expand our domestic leadership to a global scale. We are beyond surreal to announce that as of now, we have won over 60 ADAS series production EV models from 16 major OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers worldwide. We've been selected by 2 top global automotive OEMs for their new EV series production programs and there are more.

憑藉這些優勢和專業知識，我們有信心將國內領先地位擴展至全球。我們無比激動地宣布，截至目前，我們已從全球16家主要汽車製造商和一級供應商處贏得了超過60款ADAS系列量產電動車車型的訂單。我們已被兩家全球頂尖汽車製造商選中，參與其全新電動車系列量產項目，還有更多合作項目正在進行中。

Our global RFI/RFQ lineup has expanded to include a total of 13 with 9 leading global OEMs from North America and Europe, and we're adding Asia ex-China to the [roster of the quarter]. These major accomplishments marks a promising start to our global ADAS journey. Stay tuned for the updates.

我們的全球RFI/RFQ專案陣容已擴展至13個，其中包括來自北美和歐洲的9家全球領先的OEM廠商，並且我們將在[本季度專案名單]中新增除中國以外的亞洲地區。這些重大成果標誌著我們在全球ADAS領域的旅程取得了良好的開端。請關注後續更新。

As we look ahead, the road ahead is filled with opportunity to broaden our impact. Our achievement thus far are just the beginning. With market-leading LiDAR technology and strategic partnerships worldwide, we are poised to capitalize on the evolution of intelligent driving, reducing accidents, saving lives and creating a safer global transportation system.

展望未來，我們擁有無限機遇，可以進一步擴大影響力。我們迄今為止所取得的成就只是開始。憑藉市場領先的雷射雷達技術和遍布全球的戰略合作夥伴關係，我們已做好準備，把握智慧駕駛發展的機遇，減少交通事故，挽救生命，並建立更安全的全球交通系統。

I'll now turn the call over to Louis to share more details on our financial performance and outlook. Louis, please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給路易斯，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務表現和前景。路易斯，請開始。

Thank you, David, and hello, everyone. Let's go through our operating and financial figures for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. To be mindful of the length of our earnings call today, I encourage listeners to refer to the fourth quarter earnings release for further details.

謝謝David，大家好。接下來我們一起來看看2023年第四季和全年的營運和財務數據。考慮到今天的財報電話會議時間有限，我建議各位聽眾參考第四季財報發布文件以了解更多詳情。

In the fourth quarter and full year of 2023, we achieved a host of remarkable milestones that underscores our leadership in the global LiDAR industry. In Q4, our net revenues exceeded RMB 561 million, an increase of 37.1% year-over-year and 25.9% sequentially. Quarterly total LiDAR shipments reached 87,736 units, an increase of 84.6% year-over-year and 84.9% sequentially. Our fourth quarter 2023 shipments alone surpassed our combined total for full year 2022.

2023年第四季及全年，我們取得了一系列令人矚目的里程碑式成就，進一步鞏固了我們在全球雷射雷達產業的領先地位。第四季度，我們的淨收入超過人民幣5.61億元，年增37.1%，季增25.9%。當季雷射雷達出貨量達到87,736台，年增84.6%，季增84.9%。光是2023年第四季的出貨量就超過了2022年全年的總和。

Even more exciting, for full year 2023, our net revenues increased by 56.1% year-over-year to a new high of RMB 1.877 billion with a full year blended gross margin of 35.2%, above the top end of our guidance range of 30% to 35%. Our 2023 total LiDAR shipments topped 222,000, up 176% year-over-year. Meanwhile, our cumulative LiDAR shipments exceeded 300,000 units by the end of 2023, making Hesai the first automotive LiDAR company worldwide to reach this mark. We remain focused on enhancing revenue scalability and cost efficiency and delivered positive operating cash flow for the first year, underscoring our clear path to profitability.

更令人振奮的是，2023年全年，我們的淨收入年增56.1%，創下18.77億元人民幣的新高，全年綜合毛利率達到35.2%，高於我們先前30%至35%的預期區間上限。 2023年，我們的雷射雷達總出貨量超過22.2萬台，年增176%。同時，截至2023年底，我們的累計光達出貨量突破30萬台，使和賽成為全球首家達到此里程碑的汽車光達公司。我們將繼續專注於提升收入規模和成本效益，並實現了第一年的正經營現金流，這凸顯了我們實現盈利的清晰路徑。

Heartened by these stellar results, we have set ambitious targets for the first quarter and full year of 2024. We anticipate the revenues in the range of RMB 320 million to RMB 350 million and total shipments to exceed 50,000 units in the first quarter. This muted guidance is attributable to 2 main factors: first, a significant slowdown in our robotaxi business compared to last year. It is crucial to note that given the reasonable price discount granted to a certain large robotaxi customer, the suspension of deliveries to that customer will not hinder our ability to meet our gross margin target. Despite this setback, demand for the rest of our AM line LiDAR products remains strong.

受這些卓越業績的鼓舞，我們為2024年第一季和全年設定了雄心勃勃的目標。我們預計第一季營收將在人民幣3.2億元至3.5億元之間，總出貨量將超過5萬台。這項較保守的預期主要歸因於兩個因素：首先，與去年相比，我們的無人駕駛計程車業務成長顯著放緩。值得注意的是，由於我們給予某大型無人駕駛計程車客戶合理的折扣，暫停向該客戶交付不會影響我們實現毛利率目標。儘管面臨這項挫折，我們增材製造（AM）系列對雷射雷達產品的其他需求仍然強勁。

Second, the first quarter of the year traditionally marks the slow season for China's automotive industry. Due to the New Year's holiday, both OEMs and suppliers strategically pull forward production and deliveries to the fourth quarter of the preceding year. As ADAS LiDAR shipments accelerates, our revenue mix will transition from autonomous mobility led, including robotaxi and industrial robotics to ADAS led in 2024. ADAS revenues are projected to increase from below 40% of our revenues in 2023 to approximately 60% in 2024.

其次，每年第一季通常是中國汽車產業的淡季。由於春節假期的影響，汽車製造商和供應商都會將生產和交付提前到去年的第四季。隨著ADAS雷射雷達出貨量的加速成長，我們的收入結構將在2024年從以自動駕駛出行（包括無人駕駛計程車和工業機器人）為主導轉向以ADAS為主導。預計ADAS收入佔比將從2023年的不足40%增長到2024年的約60%。

The first quarter of 2024 will be a transitional quarter with steady growth in robotics and strong growth in ADAS accompanied by a drop in robotaxi contribution. Thereafter, our outlook for 2024 is highly optimistic with a significant uptick in revenues and shipments expected in the second quarter of 2024. This optimism is bolstered by addition of 13 SOP vehicle models and 6 SOP ADAS OEMs in the second quarter alone. We believe this will lead to an approximate 3x quarter-over-quarter increase in total LiDAR shipments or about 150,000 units in the second quarter of 2024.

2024年第一季將是一個過渡季度，機器人業務將保持穩定成長，ADAS業務也將強勁成長，但自動駕駛計程車業務的貢獻將有所下降。此後，我們對2024年的前景持非常樂觀的態度，預計2024年第二季營收和出貨量將顯著成長。這樂觀情緒得益於第二季新增的13款SOP車款和6家SOP ADAS OEM廠商。我們相信，這將使2024年第二季光達總出貨量較上季成長約3倍，達到約15萬台。

By the end of Q2 2024, we anticipate SOP for 26 vehicle models from 12 ADAS OEMs. We are poised for an even greater surge in shipment figures in the second half of 2024. We expect over 200,000 LiDAR shipments per quarter in the second half of 2024, as we expect 12 OEMs representing approximately 40 vehicle models to SOP by the end of this year. These projections are based on current customer forecast and may be subject to change.

到2024年第二季末，我們預計將有12家ADAS廠商的26款車型實現量產。我們預計2024年下半年出貨量將有更大幅度的成長。我們預計2024年下半年每季光達出貨量將超過20萬台，因為我們預計到今年底，將有12家廠商的約40款車型實現量產。這些預測是基於當前的客戶需求，可能會有所調整。

Our revenue guidance for full year 2024 stands firm in the range of USD 400 million to USD 450 million, an increase of 50% to 70% year-over-year. Meanwhile, we expect to maintain a blended gross margin within the 30% to 35% range for the full year of 2024, a testament to our robust cost management systems and growing economies of scale. Furthermore, we expect our commitment to operational excellence and prudent expense management strategies to help us achieve profitability in the fourth quarter of 2024.

我們對2024年全年營收的預期仍維持在4億至4.5億美元之間，年增50%至70%。同時，我們預計2024年全年綜合毛利率將維持在30%至35%的範圍內，這得益於我們穩健的成本管理系統和不斷增長的規模經濟效益。此外，我們預計，我們對卓越營運的承諾和審慎的費用管理策略將有助於我們在2024年第四季實現獲利。

To wrap up, Hesai is defined by our unwavering commitment to reducing traffic accidents, saving lives and making global transportation safer for everyone. We are firmly committed to delivering on our promise to our customers, partners and shareholders. This concludes our prepared remarks for today.

綜上所述，和賽始終致力於減少交通事故、挽救生命，並讓全球交通更安全。我們堅定不移地履行對客戶、合作夥伴和股東的承諾。今天的發言到此結束。

Operator, we are now ready to take questions.

操作員，我們現在可以開始接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Cindy Huang with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Cindy Huang。

Congratulations on splendid results. So my first question is regarding the dispute with U.S. DoD. Is there any update on the development? And will there be any impact in terms of working with U.S. OEMs?

祝賀你們取得如此優異的成績。我的第一個問題是關於與美國國防部的糾紛。目前進展如何？這會對與美國原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的合作產生什麼影響？

Thank you, Cindy. This is Louis. I'll take that first, and then, David can chime in. Yes, for the 1260, as we had said in our statement, after January 31st, when we were put on the DoD list, we don't know why. So we're trying to ascertain that. As we've said very clearly in the past to our investors and to the whole world, we do not work with the Chinese military. We do not -- our LiDARs cannot do surveillance, do not store data, and we are -- only for civilian use and commercial use only. So we made that very, very clear. So we have now asked the DoD for information, as to why we're on the list. We have moved forward with the legal proceedings. But at this point, we don't want to comment further given the sensitivity of litigation, but that's where it stands.

謝謝辛迪。我是路易斯。我先回答，然後大衛可以補充。是的，關於1260型光達，正如我們在聲明中所說，1月31日之後，我們被列入國防部名單，但我們不知道原因。所以我們正在努力找出答案。正如我們過去向投資者和全世界明確表示的那樣，我們不與中國軍方合作。我們的光達不能用於監視，也不儲存數據，而且僅供民用和商業用途。這一點我們已經說得非常清楚了。現在，我們已向國防部詢問我們被列入名單的原因。我們已經啟動了法律程序。但鑑於訴訟的敏感性，目前我們不便發表更多評論，情況就是這樣。

As far as effects on U.S. OEMs, it certainly has a reputational effect, and it has impacted us in a negative way. So we continue to monitor it. We're still in discussions with our OEM customers, but it's certainly not something that we want to happen, and we will do everything we can to get removed from that list. We don't believe it's justified. David, do you want [to add] anything else.

就對美國汽車製造商的影響而言，這無疑會造成聲譽損失，而且對我們本身也產生了負面影響。因此，我們會持續關注此事。我們仍在與汽車製造商客戶進行磋商，但這絕不是我們想要的結果，我們會盡一切努力從名單中移除。我們認為這樣做是不合理的。大衛，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Yes. Thank you, Louis. I think Louis has made our position very clear. And we do not -- we are not a military company, and those accusations are false. So I will not repeat that. I think what I'll try to add are 2 things: a, is -- and it's true that it's becoming an increasing -- increased concern, especially the U.S. OEM that and geopolitics is becoming part of the equation, and it is hurting us. And of course, this is not a company-specific issue, it's becoming a global issue that any U.S. OEMs will have concerns using parts directly from China. So that's why we are working very diligently with them, hopefully, to resolve the issue.

是的，是的，謝謝你，路易斯。我認為路易斯已經非常清楚地表明了我們的立場。我們不是軍工企業，那些指控是錯的，所以我不會重複。我想補充兩點：第一，這確實越來越令人擔憂，尤其是美國原始設備製造商（OEM），地緣政治因素也日益影響我們，這對我們造成了傷害。當然，這並非我們公司獨有的問題，而是全球性問題，任何美國OEM都會對直接使用中國零件感到擔憂。因此，我們正在與他們積極合作，希望能夠解決這個問題。

On top of that, what I'd like to comment is that it is also becoming clear that because geopolitics is going to become an issue, and remember, those European and American OEMs, the premium brands, they also have a significant size of the market in China and then, sometimes up to 50%. And for those cars and actually, we become a preferred vendor because they like us anyways, but they definitely wanted to use us or a Chinese brand in China for obvious reasons. So on the flip side, it is not great that geopolitics is becoming an issue across the border, and it is impacting our U.S. business, for sure. But they also build cars in China, and it's a significant volume. And for that, we don't have any problems and that is not a concern. So that is also part of the equation that I think is important to us.

此外，我想補充一點，地緣政治問題日益凸顯，這也越來越明顯。要知道，那些歐美汽車製造商，尤其是高端品牌，在中國市場也佔了相當大的份額，有時甚至高達50%。對於這些品牌的汽車，我們自然而然地成為了他們的首選供應商，因為他們本來就對我們很滿意，當然，出於顯而易見的原因，他們也更傾向於在中國使用我們或中國品牌的產品。所以，另一方面，地緣政治問題在中國蔓延，無疑對我們在美國的業務造成了影響。但他們也在中國生產汽車，產量相當可觀。就這一點而言，我們沒有任何問題，也無需擔憂。因此，我認為這一點對我們來說也至關重要。

Did that answered your question, Cindy?

辛迪，這樣回答你的問題了嗎？

Thank you, David. And my second question is related to our shipment forecast. The [540] new model launches in the pipeline and demand and demand and model sales are super volatile. Does Hesai apply any adjustment to OEMs order forecast? And how would you respond to a rapid order change?

謝謝David。我的第二個問題與我們的出貨量預測有關。 [540]新車型即將上市，但需求和銷售波動非常大。 Hesai是否會對OEM訂單預測進行任何調整？如果訂單出現快速變化，你們會如何應對？

You mean order change for the positive or the negative?

你是說正數還是負數的順序改變？

Both ways.

兩種方式。

Okay. I think you've known me -- you guys have known me for many, many years, I always build a discount into the forecast. So our actual orders are much higher than the numbers we give. So that is already built in.

好的。我想你們都認識我──你們認識我很多年了，我總是會在預測中預留一定的折扣。所以我們實際的訂單量遠高於我們給的數字。這部分折扣已經包含在預測中了。

As far as upside surprises, we have the capability with our manufacturing facility to meet almost any demand level because of our efficiency and manufacturing in Hertz and also because of our automation and our access to raw materials. So upside is always good. In fact, we were very, very happy to do the partnership with Li Auto, where the MEGA -- and the MEGA standard equipment or LiDARs, hey, it was just launched, and then on their MPV. Their new L7 -- or their L7 and L8 models Pro will now be standard equipment to have Hesai LiDARs used to only be the Max version.

至於潛在的成長空間，憑藉我們在赫茲的高效生產能力、自動化程度以及原材料供應，我們有能力滿足幾乎任何需求水平。因此，成長空間總是令人欣喜的。事實上，我們非常高興能與理想汽車合作，將MEGA（以及MEGA標配的雷射雷達）應用於他們新推出的MPV車型，例如L7和L8 Pro，這些車型現在都將標配Hesai雷射雷達，而此前只有Max版本才配備。

That alone will do the take rate from the auto from 30% -- in the 30% range plus to probably 60% to 80%, so you think about that's hundreds of thousands of orders over the next couple of years. So there is -- so we have the upside surprises. And then any kind of downside surprises, we obviously can handle because we discount to you the number we give for our LiDAR deliveries.

單單這一點就能將自動驗車率從 30% 左右提升到 60% 到 80%，想想看，未來幾年這將帶來數十萬筆訂單。所以，這其中不乏驚喜。至於任何潛在的負面影響，我們顯然都能應對，因為我們提供的 LiDAR 交付量已經包含了折扣。

So again, let me talk about this topic from a technical standpoint. So one thing worth noting is that we actually built a standard product. We always call that AT128. It was like not specific to any customers because it's the same LiDAR. The only difference is some of the communication software [and some of the mounting], which is a minimal change. It means that -- yes, you're absolutely right. There are ups and downs across some 40, 50 car models that we're expecting to ship and it's impossible to predict 6 months down the road.

所以，我再從技術角度談談這個主題。首先值得注意的是，我們實際上打造的是一款標準產品，我們一直稱之為AT128。它並非針對任何特定客戶，因為它的光達是相同的。唯一的區別在於一些通訊軟體（以及一些安裝方式），而這些改變微乎其微。這意味著——是的，您說得完全正確。在我們預計交付的40到50款車型中，產品性能會有起伏，而且我們無法預測6個月後的情況。

But if you look at the aggregate effect, it is not very difficult to understand how many of the units will be needed across the entire especially price category, right? What we are happy to see is that used to be more on the premium category. And now it's penetrating down to the RMB 150,000 level, which is a much bigger market, given that we have many car models now in a more cheaper part of the bracket. And we're actually more confident that with the blended volume, and it will be a very robust and steadily growing volume this year.

但從整體來看，就不難理解整個價格區間（尤其是整個價格區間）需要多少銷量，對吧？我們很高興地看到，過去銷售主要集中在高端市場，而現在正逐步滲透到15萬元人民幣的價位區間，這是一個更大的市場，因為我們現在在價格更低的區間也推出了許多車型。我們更有信心，綜合來看，今年的銷售量將非常強勁且穩定成長。

That's very clear. And can I follow up with one more question on next-generation product. So how do we bridge the gap, [I mean], the transition from AT128 to AT512?

這一點很清楚。我可否再問一個關於下一代產品的問題？我們該如何彌補AT128到AT512之間的差距？

Yes. Yes. This is a great question. Thank you. So I think there are 2 parts of the strategy. First, if you remember our overarching thesis has always been a simple term called Moore's Law. If you look at it what Moore's Law does is that there are actually 2 ways of using Moore's Law. One way is that you try to keep the price range. It's like your CPU, right? But then your performance almost doubles every 18 months or so. So that's one of the way we're doing. Essentially, this is the path, the AT512 is taking in the sense that AT512 will always stay at the range of the AT128 on the price. And -- but as you can already tell, it is 8x more resolution and roughly 50% more on the range at a similar price range. So this is exactly what Moore's Law did to a lot of the consumer electronics, right? Your CPU didn't just have its price over time, right? It becomes 0, right. Of course, [that didn't] happen.

是的，是的，這是一個很好的問題，謝謝。我認為這個策略包含兩個部分。首先，如果您還記得，我們​​一直以來的核心理念就是一個簡單的術語—摩爾定律。摩爾定律其實有兩種應用方式。一種方式是盡量保持價格區間不變，就像CPU一樣，對吧？但性能幾乎每18個月左右就會翻倍。這就是我們正在採用的方式之一。本質上，AT512正是走這條路，它的價格將始終保持在AT128的範圍內。而且—正如您所看到的，它的解析度提高了8倍，性能提升了約50%，價格卻相近。這正是摩爾定律對許多消費性電子產品的影響，對吧？ CPU的價格不再只是維持不變，而是最終趨於零。當然，那件事並沒有發生。

Having said that, we also recognize that for LiDARs to be widely deployed to more vehicles, not just hundreds of thousands of them, but tens of millions of them, the mass market needs a cheaper LiDAR, and that's possible too via Moore's Law. Of course, if we try to build a more affordable version of it, it wouldn't have the full performance of the AT512. It will still be reasonably good, especially definitely better than AT128, but it could be cheaper over time if you don't need the full performance of AT512. That is the direction we're looking at. We're not quite there yet. And we will release information, as they become available, but this will definitely be another trend, especially for the Chinese market that people want, and we know we have technology platform to support that.

話雖如此，我們也意識到，要讓光達廣泛應用於更多車輛，不僅是數十萬輛，而是數千萬輛，大眾市場需要更便宜的光達，而摩爾定律也讓這一切成為可能。當然，如果我們嘗試打造更經濟實惠的版本，它的性能肯定無法與AT512媲美。它仍然會相當不錯，尤其肯定比AT128好得多，但如果您不需要AT512的全部性能，隨著時間的推移，它的價格可能會更低。這就是我們努力的方向。我們尚未完全實現這一目標。我們會隨時發布相關訊息，但這無疑是另一個趨勢，尤其是在中國市場，人們對此充滿期待，我們知道我們擁有支援這一趨勢的技術平台。

Your next question comes from Tina Hou with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的Tina Hou。

Congrats on the result and the strong gross margin number. I have a question. So David, you -- just now you mentioned that by 2025, there will be -- you guys will cumulatively ship 2 million LIDARs, so which means about 1.7 million in 2024 and 2025 together. So I'm just wondering, is that also a conservative number, like a bear-case scenario that you're giving? Or this is more of like a base case scenario?

恭喜你們取得如此佳績，毛利率也非常可觀。我有個問題。 David，你剛才提到，到2025年，你們的光達累計出貨量將達到200萬台，這意味著2024年和2025年加起來大約會出貨170萬台。我想問的是，這個數字是保守估計，還是你們給的悲觀預測？或者說，這只是一個基本預測？

Thank you, Tina. I'll take that since given it's a numbers question. I think the 2 million cumulative figure is realistic and probably leaning towards the bear side. So I think, as David mentioned in his remarks, the demand for LiDAR as it moves down to the affordable car midrange and lower range, the adoption of LiDAR in new EV vehicles is going to just explode. So I think as -- there was a holy grail mentioned in 2020 by all the LiDAR makers in the world, reaching 1 million units by 2025. I believe Hesai will be the only company to actually do so by next year.

謝謝你，蒂娜。既然這是數字問題，我就接受這個答案。我認為累計200萬這個數字比較現實，而且可能略偏保守。正如大衛在發言中提到的，隨著光達技術逐漸普及到中低端經濟型轎車，其在新電動車中的應用將會爆炸性成長。 2020年，全球所有光達製造商都曾將2025年達到100萬台的產量作為終極目標。我相信，到明年，和賽科技將是唯一一家真正實現這一目標的公司。

So yes, if you add the 300,000, we've done now, 600,000 or 700,000 for this year, and we expect to ship over 1 million units in 2025. And that's partly because of what David discussed, a market, where we have high-end AT512, and we have lower end versions for the mass market cars that are more affordable. Those 2 together, you'll have to wait to hear the details, but those 2 together will generate expected units of well over 1 million for 2025.

所以，是的，如果加上我們今年已經交付的30萬台，今年的交付量將達到60萬或70萬台，我們預計2025年的交付量將超過100萬台。這部分原因如David所說，是因為市場需求，我們既有高端的AT512，也有面向大眾市場、價格較親民的低階版本。這兩款產品加起來，具體細節還需要等待公佈，但預計到2025年，它們的交付量將遠遠超過100萬台。

I also believe -- Tina, this is David. I also believe this is -- could be on the more conservative side for another (inaudible) and the consumer market, especially car market in China, it moves very fast. Everybody is kind of looking at each other and what they do, and then they try to incorporate something into their car model that will roll out in the next 18 months. So today's projection is definitely based on the bottom-up projection of the numbers we already have. But if you watch very closely for the media for especially past a month or 2, everybody is mentioning LiDAR.

我也認為──蒂娜，我是大衛。我也認為——對於另一個（聽不清楚）來說，這可能有點保守了，而且消費市場，尤其是中國的汽車市場，變化非常快。大家都在互相觀察，關注彼此的動向，然後試著將一些技術融入他們未來18個月內推出的車款。所以今天的預測肯定是基於我們已有數據的自下而上的預測。但如果你密切關注媒體，尤其是過去一兩個月的報道，你會發現每個人都在談論光達（LiDAR）。

So if you look at all the car releases, and they always only mentioned now very few things, right? One of them is LiDAR very specific. The other is the 800-volt charging, and what was the other thing people talk about? I couldn't even remember. I think it is one of the top 3 things that is mentioned across every car release. And of course, a lot of the OEMs are now just claiming that sure, we're going to make it a standard because this has become the symbol of the level of intelligent driving, and that's not a competition, [I kind of] we're losing. So I think this snowball effect, we know it will start, it starts to moving, and is ramping up really quickly. So that's why I think the current best estimate today from the bottom-up numbers could be on the conservative side.

所以，如果你回顧所有新車發表會，你會發現他們總是只提到極少數幾個功能，對吧？其中一個是光達（LiDAR），非常具體。另一個是800伏特充電，還有什麼呢？我都想不起來了。我覺得這應該是每次新車發表會都會提到的三大功能之一。當然，現在很多汽車製造商都在宣稱，他們要把這項技術當作標準，因為它已經成為智慧駕駛水平的象徵，而且這根本不是競爭，我們（似乎）正在落後。所以我認為這種滾雪球效應，我們知道它會開始，它會發展，而且發展速度非常快。因此，我認為目前基於自下而上數據得出的最佳估計可能還是偏保守的。

Yes. Tina, you know that as we move into this year, we're actually -- our LiDAR will become platform LiDAR for some of these top 5 or 6 OEMs in the world. So they're actually going to be volume-wise. They're going to be actual -- and the platform, which rolls out to the whole new fleet of EV cars, whether it's at the low end or the high end, just may be different LiDAR, but all from Hesai. So then those -- that's why David said the bottom was up, but the numbers actually can be much larger, especially if it becomes standard equipment on all their EV models, which I believe will happen in the next several years to many of the top auto manufacturers.

是的，蒂娜，你知道，隨著我們進入今年，我們的光達實際上將成為全球排名前五或前六的汽車製造商的平台光達。所以，從銷售來看，它們將會真正普及。這個平台將會推廣到所有新款電動車，無論是低階車型還是高階車型，雖然光達可能有所不同，但都來自和賽。所以，這就是為什麼大衛說低階車型銷量會上升，但實際銷量可能會更大，尤其是在它成為所有電動車的標準配置之後，我相信在未來幾年內，許多頂級汽車製造商都會這樣做。

Yes. The third one, the competing factor is like aerodynamics coefficient. Yes, I remember. Yes.

是的。第三個因素，也就是競爭因素，類似空氣動力學係數。是的，我記得。是的。

That's really helpful and comprehensive. Yes, yes. And I do agree that it's definitely one of the top, if not the top functions that gets mentioned by the OEMs recently. And then can I have a follow-up question is, in terms of the OpEx. So wondering what is our SG&A and R&D as well as CapEx budget for 2024? And also, do we have like an estimated time of non-GAAP net profit breakeven?

這真的很有幫助，也很全面。是的，是的。我同意，這絕對是OEM廠商最近提及最多的功能之一，甚至可能是最重要的功能。接下來，關於營運支出（OpEx），我還有一個問題。我想知道我們2024年的銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）、研發費用（R&D）以及資本支出（CapEx）預算是多少？另外，我們是否有非GAAP淨利損益平衡點的預計時間？

Yes. I think it's a good question. OpEx was higher in 2023 because we had a very large expansion year, right? So we went into -- we built Hertz Center. We built Maxwell R&D Innovation Center. And we also had rolled out a lot of new programs on the ADAS side. So our hiring went from -- I think we had [905 people -- had 905 people] after a set of layoffs in 2022, finished '23 with a little bit over 1,100 people. That was set to slow.

是的，我覺得這是個好問題。 2023年的營運支出較高，是因為我們經歷了大規模擴張，對吧？我們建造了赫茲中心和麥克斯韋研發創新中心，並在ADAS方面推出了許多新項目。因此，我們的招募人數——我記得在2022年裁員後，當時有905人——到2023年底，員工人數略高於1100人。之後，這一成長速度預計會放緩。

R&D and G&A hiring will not increase much, and sales and marketing will grow. But together, I think the total amount of increase in OpEx will be much lower than the revenue increase. As long as we maintain 30% to 35% gross margins, if we hit USD 550 million to USD 600 million, we'll be profitable from a GAAP basis.

研發和一般行政開支不會大幅增加，銷售和行銷支出將會成長。但總的來說，我認為營運支出總增幅將遠低於收入增幅。只要我們維持30%到35%的毛利率，如果營收達到5.5億美元到6億美元，以美國通用會計準則（GAAP）計算，我們就能獲利。

And from a non-GAAP basis, we should be very close to breakeven or [probably] in the second half of this year, as volumes hit over 200,000 a quarter. And for Q4 of 2024 in a few quarters, we expect -- we hope to get GAAP profitable for that quarter because, of course, Q1 in 2025 is our slowest quarter seasonally. So that will slow down. But overall, we expect to be GAAP profitable in 2025.

從非GAAP準則來看，隨著銷售量突破每季20萬輛，我們應該會非常接近損益平衡點，或者很可能在今年下半年達到損益兩平。至於2024年第四季度，我們預計——我們希望——能夠實現GAAP準則下的盈利，因為2025年第一季通常是我們的淡季，所以銷量會放緩。但整體而言，我們預計2025年能夠實現GAAP準則下的獲利。

Your next question comes from Jessie Lo with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jessie Lo。

My first question will be related to our shipment orders. So apart from Li Auto, could you also like shed some light on the -- who will be the top other 4 clients? And how would the volume looks like in 2024?

我的第一個問題與我們的出貨訂單有關。除了理想汽車之外，能否也介紹其他前四大客戶？以及2024年的訂單量預計是多少？

Yes. I think we don't have the right to mention their [true] names. But Li Auto is roughly going to be more than half of our total volume, but the rest of the top 5 customers, they will each take at least 20,000 units to 30,000 units. And I think you probably will be able to figure out the names and as some of them are already have been disclosed, but we won't be able to associate those numbers directly with them. So essentially, this is a roughly half from Li Auto and half from the rest of the top players. Yes. Jessie, without disclosing names, the top 5 automakers in China will start shipping with our LiDAR this year. That's why the numbers go up. Okay.

是的。我想我們沒有權利透露他們的[真實]名稱。理想汽車的訂單量將占我們總訂單量的一半以上，而其他五大客戶，每家至少也會訂購2萬到3萬台。我想你可能已經猜到他們的名字了，因為其中一些已經公開了，但我們無法將這些訂單量直接與他們關聯起來。所以基本上，理想汽車的訂單量佔一半，其他幾家頂級廠商的訂單量佔一半。是的。傑西，在不透露具體名稱的情況下，中國排名前五的汽車製造商今年將開始使用我們的光達進行出貨。這就是訂單量上升的原因。好的。

Also, my second question would be related to the ASP adjustment or negotiation with the OEMs. If we take this revenue guidance of USD 400 million to USD 450 million, pairing with our shipment or delivery guidance, it sounds like the ADAS LiDAR ASP drop wouldn't be as much as 10%. So could you maybe share some details with how you're dealing with our clients on the ASP? And then especially, we have a high concentration on Li Auto, and then we -- apart from that, we also have more shipment on FT series as well.

另外，我的第二個問題與ASP調整或OEM廠商的談判有關。如果我們將4億至4.5億美元的營收預期與我們的出貨量或交貨量預期相結合，ADAS雷射雷達的ASP降幅似乎不會達到10%。能否分享一下您是如何與客戶協商ASP的？此外，我們尤其關注理想汽車，除此之外，FT系列的出貨量也比較大。

Yes. I think the -- I mean, most of the product is in the AT series for ADAS. So it's negotiated by contract and usually it's relatively a similar price for the whole year. The ASP decline for 2024 is higher than 10%. It's actually closer to 20%. But the key thing is that our cost goes down even faster. So we can still maintain the margins on a blended basis. Because remember, we still have the very high gross margin business of robotaxi and robotics. So our gross margin is still intact at 30%, 35%, but we're able to absorb any kind of negotiated price reductions better than anyone else in the market. So we have the ability to take down price, even if we don't -- obviously don't like to do it. But the price decrease will be a little bit higher than 10%.

是的。我的意思是，我們的大部分產品都屬於ADAS的AT系列。所以價格是透過合約協商的，通常全年價格都比較穩定。 2024年的平均售價降幅超過10%，實際上接近20%。但關鍵在於我們的成本下降速度更快。因此，我們仍然可以維持綜合利潤率。因為別忘了，我們還有毛利率非常高的自動駕駛計程車和機器人業務。所以我們的毛利率仍然保持在30%到35%之間，而且我們比市場上任何其他公司都能更好地承受任何形式的價格談判降幅。因此，我們有能力降價，即使我們——顯然並不想這麼做。但降價幅度會略高於10%。

And finally, just follow-up...

最後，還有一點後續…

And also -- sorry, real quick. I want to quickly add my comments on this. So also, remember, this is also due to a strong effect of economies of scale, right? And it is true that the ASP is declining probably faster than we expected. But more importantly, the total volume growth is much faster, right? And so that -- and you have to combine those factors to figure out.

還有——不好意思，我得趕緊補充幾句。我想快速補充一下我的看法。記住，這也是規模經濟效應顯著的結果，對吧？而且，平均售價的下降速度確實可能比我們預期的還要快。但更重要的是，總銷量的成長速度要快得多，對吧？所以——你必須把這些因素綜合起來才能下結論。

I mean, Jessie, you can just look at Q4, and you can see that once we start manufacturing in high volume, the economies of scale really kicks in on the gross margin.

我的意思是，傑西，你只要看看第四季的數據，就能看出一旦我們開始大規模生產，規模經濟就會真正對毛利率產生影響。

So also, I want to follow up on top of that fourth quarter gross margin, so previously, we were still doing the transition. So how was that transition on the AT series? And then are we having any further like product or cost upgrade or improvement in 2024?

另外，我想就第四季的毛利率再補充一點。之前我們還在進行產品轉型。 AT系列產品的轉型狀況如何？ 2024年我們是否會有進一步的產品或成本升級或改進？

Sorry, can you...

抱歉，您能…

The transition from AT is smooth, right? No issues, right?

從AT過渡到AT很順利，對吧？沒問題吧？

AT to ET.

AT 到 ET。

AT128. Remember from the old AT?

AT128。還記得舊款AT嗎？

Yes, right, that -- and that is close to completion, and it is a very solid upgrade. And so -- and it also, it has gone through more validation than the previous ones. So it is a very smooth transition.

是的，沒錯，那個升級——它已經接近完成，而且是一次非常可靠的升級。此外，它也比之前的版本經過了更多的驗證。所以過渡過程非常平穩。

There's -- I think there's one for a small number of cars, 1 or 2 this year that was still shipped with the old AT because it was validated last year, but it's very low numbers. So I think AT -- the new AT is certainly going to be 95%, 97% of the...

我覺得今年可能有一兩輛車仍然搭載了舊款自動變速箱，因為去年已經通過了驗證，但數量非常少。所以我認為新款自排變速箱的普及率一定會達到95%到97%…

And it has been agreed that it will finish the transition very (inaudible). So yes, I think this is a very smooth transition.

雙方已達成一致，過渡工作將非常順利地完成（聽不清楚）。所以，是的，我認為這是一個非常平穩的過渡。

And FT is rolling out. The numbers aren't huge yet, but there is getting -- it is getting some traction. And then, of course, ET comes out next year in SOP form. And also AT512. Yes.

FT正在逐步推廣。雖然用戶數量還不多，但已經開始取得一些進展。當然，ET明年也會以SOP的形式發布。還有AT512。是的。

Your next question comes from Bin Wang with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的王斌。

I have 2 questions. Number one is about costs (inaudible). So what's your volume forecast for the (inaudible) impact for this year -- next year volume? That's number one about costs.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題是關於成本的（聽不清楚）。你們今年的銷售預測是多少？明年的銷售預測是多少？這是關於成本的第一個問題。

The second question is about the gross margin in the #4 quarters really high despite your product mix actually deteriorate, which means much more ADAS LiDAR in the #4 quarter, however, you actually got more than 10 percentage margin increase, kind of what's the reason for that? What's the change in the first quarter because this seem to be the similar product mix in the coming quarter?

第二個問題是關於第四季毛利率非常高的問題，儘管你們的產品組合實際上有所惡化，這意味著第四季度ADAS雷射雷達產品佔比大幅增加，但毛利率卻增加了10%以上，這是為什麼呢？第一季的情況又是如何改變的？因為看起來下一季的產品組合與第一季類似。

Thank you, Wang Bin. I think we don't discuss individual customers.

謝謝王斌。我認為我們不討論個別客戶的情況。

Yes. So I think Wang Bin, is first, again, we won't be able to comment specific individual customers without their permission. But I think you're right that we do see a significant slowdown of the robotaxi market, and it would be hard for us to speculate on whether it's a technical reason or economics reason, but the decline and the slowdown of some of the orders, it is true, right?

是的。所以我覺得王斌先生首先要說的是，未經客戶許可，我們無法評論特定的個別客戶。但我認為您說得對，我們確實看到自動駕駛計程車市場出現了明顯的放緩，我們很難推測這是技術原因還是經濟原因，但部分訂單的下降和放緩是事實，對嗎？

So of course, the flip side is that we see actually better momentum on the ADAS side and especially the penetration rate and the unit shipment is -- and also the new car models coming in and is exceeding our expectation. So they kind of canceled out each other for the year to help us to maintain our very strong growth. But again, as I said, we are not a robotaxi LiDAR company. We are not an ADAS LiDAR company. We are a LiDAR company with very strong semiconductor capability and manufacturing capability.

當然，另一方面，我們看到ADAS領域的成長動能確實更好，尤其是市場滲透率和出貨量——而且新車型的上市也超出了我們的預期。因此，這兩方面因素相互抵消，幫助我們維持了強勁的成長動能。但正如我所說，我們並非一家自動駕駛計程車雷射雷達公司，也並非一家ADAS雷射雷達公司。我們是一家擁有非常強大的半導體和製造能力的光達公司。

And it was true that when robotaxi was growing very fast, we capture the majority of the market. Now it's slowing down, and it actually doesn't hurt us to continue to focus on the much faster growing part of the market, which is ADAS. So that...

的確，在自動駕駛計程車快速成長的時期，我們佔據了大部分市場。現在成長速度放緩，我們繼續專注於成長速度更快的ADAS市場，實際上對我們並無壞處。所以…

So Wang Bin, you recall when I made -- when we made our forecast for this year of $400 million to $450 million in revenue, at that time, our ADAS LiDAR count was about 400,000. That is now up to over 600,000. And I still left the revenue intact at $400 million, $450 million, just to be conservative given the impact from the slowdown in robotaxi. So we didn't take the number up.

王斌，你還記得我之前預測今年營收4億到4.5億美元的時候嗎？當時我們的ADAS雷射雷達數量大約是40萬台。現在已經超過60萬台了。考慮到自動駕駛計程車市場放緩的影響，為了保守起見，我仍然把營收預測維持在4億到4.5億美元。所以我們沒有提高營收預期。

Yes.

是的。

But that shows you that because David said it kind of evens itself out. And as your question on the gross margin for Q4, you have to remember, that's our busiest quarter, and that's at a time when we still had the higher pricing from 2023.

但正如大衛所說，這說明情況最終會趨於平衡。至於你問的第四季毛利率，你要記住，那是我們最忙碌的季度，而且當時我們仍然沿用2023年的較高定價策略。

And also, on top of it, so the slowdown of the robotaxi really is starting this year. So last Q4 was still a good quarter. So we do expect this year not be able to ship a high gross margin, large volume robotaxi LiDARs. I think that has been already factored in and disclosed to everyone. But I think last Q4 was still very strong for both of the [LiDARs].

此外，自動駕駛計程車市場的放緩實際上從今年開始。儘管去年第四季業績依然不錯，但我們預計今年無法交付高毛利率、大批量生產的自動駕駛出租車雷射雷達。我認為這一點已經考慮在內，並且已經向所有人披露。不過，我認為去年第四季兩款雷射雷達的銷售量仍然非常強勁。

Yes. I think as -- robotics is still growing, so that market will still grow 30%, 40% this year. And ADAS, of course, will [grow] well over 100% this year. And so together, on a blended basis, we still expect very, very strong revenue growth of 50% to 70% year-over-year. And that -- and then obviously, the shipment numbers keep going up. They don't go down. So it's gone from 400,000 to 600,000 and still climbing. Did that answer both your questions, Wang Bin.

是的。我認為機器人技術仍在成長，所以今年該市場仍將成長30%到40%。當然，ADAS（高級駕駛輔助系統）今年的成長將遠超過100%。因此，綜合來看，我們仍然預期營收將實現非常強勁的年成長，達到50%到70%。而且，出貨量也在持續成長，沒有下降。出貨量已經從40萬台成長到60萬台，而且還在持續攀升。王斌，這樣回答你的兩個問題了嗎？

Your next question comes from [Jan Yu with HDFC].

你的下一個問題來自[HDFC的Jan Yu]。

Can you hear my voice?

你聽得到我的聲音嗎？

Yes. Go ahead.

好的，請繼續。

So my first question is about robotaxi and robots. We noticed that the demand of the robotaxi slow down perhaps the humanoid robots are developing really fast this year. Could you give us a guidance for the shipment for the robotaxi and robots this year? Also, do we have any intent to launch a specific LiDAR for the humanoid robots in the future?

我的第一個問題是關於自動駕駛計程車和機器人的。我們注意到自動駕駛計程車的需求有所放緩，可能是因為今年人形機器人發展非常迅速。您能否對今年自動駕駛計程車和機器人的出貨量給予一些指引？另外，我們未來是否有計劃推出專門用於人形機器人的光達？

So I -- so the second question is kind of a surprise because I think you're talking about a completely different industry. And this is a very exciting industry and that at some point, it will use a large amount of LiDARs. I think that's one topic.

所以，第二個問題有點出乎我的意料，因為我覺得你談的是完全不同的行業。這是一個非常令人興奮的行業，而且在未來的某個時候，它會大量使用光達。我認為這算是一個話題。

And I think your question is, are we going to build humanoid robot this year? As far as I know, we don't have concrete plans to do the robot itself today, but that could benefit from using different types of our LiDARs technology and hopefully, this answers your question.

我想你的問題是，我們今年會製造人形機器人嗎？據我所知，我們目前還沒有具體的機器人製造計劃，但使用我們不同類型的光達技術可能會有所幫助，希望這能解答你的疑問。

And then your first question, on the number of units for robotaxi and robotics, the actual number of total units last year for PandarXT and QT was approximately 27,000. We expect that number to still increase. So it's not -- overall, it's not shrinking. But because there is price reduction, and also there may be a mix shift toward lower priced Pandar or XT yet, the revenue will not be -- grow high basically. Robotics will grow. Robotaxi will not. It will actually shrink year-over-year. Okay. But the actual units is still going up.

關於您提出的第一個問題，即自動駕駛計程車和機器人的銷量，去年 PandarXT 和 QT 的總銷量約為 27,000 台。我們預計這個數字還會繼續成長。所以整體而言，銷量並沒有下降。但由於價格下降，而且市場可能會轉向價格較低的 Pandar 或 XT 系列，因此收入成長不會很高。機器人業務將會成長，而自動駕駛計程車業務則不會。實際上，它的銷量會比去年同期下降。好的。但實際銷量仍在成長。

Okay. May I have another question. I want to ask the cooperation with the global OEM. And where should we expect [to see] your ramp-up in the sales from the global OEMs order?

好的。我還有一個問題。我想問一下與全球OEM廠商的合作情況。我們預期來自全球OEM廠商訂單的銷售額何時會成長？

Depending on which one, but it's a much [later] volume. And so, we don't have the specific numbers to announce yet. And it is slower than the rest of the China EV market.

這取決於具體情況，但產量要晚得多。因此，我們目前還沒有具體數字可以公佈。而且，它的成長速度也比中國其他電動車市場慢。

(inaudible) the 2 that are referenced in our earnings release [were] SOP in 2025. So it's not 2024.

（聽不清楚）我們在財報中提到的那兩項[是]2025年的SOP。所以不是2024年。

Your next question comes from Michelle Jing with Haitong International.

下一個問題來自海通國際的 Michelle Jing。

I just -- I think I have a few questions. So the first one would be based upon your estimation for ADAS shipments, do you guys have an idea about the ADAS shipment for the whole industry in 2024?

我只是想問幾個問題。第一個問題是基於你們對ADAS出貨量的估計，你們對2024年整個產業的ADAS出貨量有什麼預測嗎？

About the whole industry for ADAS shipments?

關於ADAS出貨量的整個產業狀況？

Oh, the entire market.

哦，整個市場。

Yes. The [entire] market.

是的，整個市場。

Yes (inaudible).

是的（聽不清楚）。

I think you probably have to refer to the third-party reports because we don't have the full projection for some of the OEMs that we don't directly work with. My very rough estimate is probably a little more than double of our volume. That's my guess.

我認為您可能需要參考第三方報告，因為我們沒有一些未直接合作的原始設備製造商的完整預測數據。我的粗略估計大概是我們銷量的兩倍多一點。這只是我的猜測。

I mean, we have to be very close to 50% of the global market, if not, even slightly (inaudible). And I think if you break it down without getting into geography, I think China will roughly be [67% -- 60% to 70%] of the global market over the next several years. So given our position, as the market leader in China, we have to be close, if not higher than [50%] of the global market. For -- not for everything, for ADAS -- for ADAS LiDAR. There's obviously other categories like ADAS automotive there.

我的意思是，我們必須非常接近全球50%的市場份額，甚至略高於50%（聽不清楚）。我認為，如果拋開地理因素，未來幾年中國將佔據全球市場約67%（60%到70%）的份額。因此，鑑於我們作為中國市場領導者的地位，我們必須接近甚至超過全球50%的市場份額。這裡指的是ADAS（高級駕駛輔助系統）雷射雷達技術，而不是其他領域。當然，ADAS汽車技術也涵蓋其他類別。

And my second question would be for products. So -- for the AT512, do you guys have any orders yet? Did you receive any orders?

我的第二個問題是關於產品的。 AT512，你們現在有訂單了嗎？收到訂單了嗎？

That will be the future Level 3 products for the global OEMs. We have -- I think we've openly disclosed that we have quite a significant number of RFI and RFQ and some of them are in a very late stage. Basically, there was very strong interest for 512, but there's only samples available. So orders won't come in until those samples are evaluated and contracts negotiated. But the orders will come in usually the year before or right the year is actually ships -- actually firm orders.

這將是未來全球OEM廠商的L3級產品。我們已經公開表示，我們收到了相當多的RFI和RFQ，其中一些已經進入後期階段。基本上，市場對512產品表現出了非常濃厚的興趣，但目前只有樣品可供提供。因此，在樣品評估完成、合約談判達成之前，不會有訂單。但通常情況下，正式訂單會在產品出貨前一年或出貨當年到來。

Your next question comes from [Ron Jao with TF].

你的下一個問題來自[TF的Ron Jao]。

So I have some questions regarding demand side. So apart from [Linkpower], have you observed any demand from other OEMs for equipping vehicles priced below RMB 200,000 with LiDAR systems? And how much longer do you anticipate it would take for LiDAR product to further penetrate the market for vehicles under this price point? And also, with the projection that LiDAR sales will exceed 1 million units by 2025, is it -- like is it taking into account that this volume will include sales driven by this category of vehicles and besides Linkpower .

我有一些關於需求方面的問題。除了[Linkpower]之外，您是否觀察到其他OEM廠商對售價低於人民幣20萬元的車輛配備雷射雷達系統的需求？您預計光達產品還需要多久才能進一步滲透到這個價位以下的車輛市場？另外，您預測2025年光達的銷售量將超過100萬台，這個預測是否包含了除Linkpower之外的其他廠商的銷售量？

So I didn't quite get the last question, but I'll answer the first one, first. So yes, we have a few models, and that is already in the pipeline that will be in the range or below the RMB 200,000 range. And we do start to see a lot more request considering using LIDAR as the standard configuration for more car models in that range, again, it has a snowball effect, right? It's -- and China market is always rolling, right?

我沒完全聽懂最後一個問題，不過我先回答第一個。是的，我們有幾款車型正在研發中，價格將在20萬元人民幣或以下。而且我們確實看到越來越多的客戶考慮將光達作為該價位車型的標準配置，這會產生滾雪球效應，對吧？中國市場一直都在蓬勃發展，對吧？

And once they see somebody doing that and the customers will always refer to that and ask the OEM why can we have that? Does that mean this car is inferior in terms of intelligence driving then the competition. So that is becoming amplified very quickly, and we do start to see that in the next -- already seeing that, but definitely for the negotiations we have in the next year, which, of course, we will be shipping in 2025 and 2026.

一旦他們看到有人這樣做，客戶就會不斷提及此事，並質疑汽車製造商為什麼我們不能擁有這項功能？這是否意味著這款車在智慧駕駛方面不如競爭對手？這種質疑正在迅速放大，我們已經開始看到這種情況——當然，在我們明年的談判中，這種情況會更加明顯，而我們的產品將在2025年和2026年交付。

The second question, I just didn't quite get...

第二個問題，我沒太明白…

Remember -- yes, on the second question, remember the trend globally, EVs in China were over 8 million or so last year, and that's still growing. So let's say, it's 10 million, 12 million over the next -- this year and next year. I think as we said earlier, the penetration for intelligent driving systems at Level 2+ and 3 is going to increase even into the mass market cars below RMB 200,000.

記住——是的，關於第二個問題，要記住全球趨勢，去年中國電動車的銷量超過800萬輛，而且還在成長。假設明年（今年和明年）達到1000萬輛、1200萬輛。我認為正如我們之前所說，L2+和L3級智慧駕駛系統的普及率將會提高，甚至在售價低於20萬元人民幣的大眾市場車型中也會如此。

Second trend is, as David mentioned, is people asking for intelligent driving systems with LiDAR. That will push, and I think we've already had discussions with OEMs, where they will make a standard equipment on all their EVs. So those 2 factors will cause that snowball effect and will take us easily over 1 million units in 2025 based on current discussions with OEMs.

第二個趨勢正如大衛所提到的，是人們對配備光達的智慧駕駛系統的需求。這將推動電動車的發展，而且我認為我們已經與一些汽車製造商進行過討論，他們會將光達作為所有電動車的標配。因此，這兩個因素將產生滾雪球效應，根據目前與汽車製造商的討論，到2025年，電動車的銷量將輕鬆突破100萬輛。

Yes. So I think a year ago, this was a much more heated topic when everyone is saying that we know the competition is difficult in China. Everyone is cutting costs. What makes you think that people will take more LiDARs as opposed to less, right? And my answer stands, if price is the only differentiating factor people consider, we should all go back to (inaudible) right, make a [bearable] car with no ADAS, right? Why would we even talk about ADAS at all?

是的。所以我覺得一年前，這還是個更熱門的話題，當時大家都說，我們知道中國的競爭很激烈，大家都在削減成本。你憑什麼認為人們會接受更多的光達而不是更少的呢？我的答案依然是，如果價格是人們考慮的唯一差異化因素，那我們都應該回到（聽不清楚）對吧，造一輛沒有ADAS的[勉強能開的]車，對吧？那我們為什麼還要討論ADAS呢？

The reason is that just because exactly competition, they need to use the best [demand] for the buck. So a buck is a buck, but the demand is defined differently based on the market, it used to be the big entertainment screen, now it's really the charging and the LiDAR. So everyone is asking about it, then this becomes demand for the buck. So that's why I think it's becoming more popular that people realize with this little of investment, your vehicle can stand out or at least not falling behind. So that's the rationale.

原因就在於競爭，他們需要用最少的投入來獲得最大的性價比。雖然每一分錢都很重要，但不同市場的需求定義卻有所不同。過去，人們追求的是大型娛樂螢幕，而現在，充電和光達才是關鍵。每個人都在關注這些功能，這就形成了性價比的競爭。因此，我認為這種趨勢越來越受歡迎，因為人們意識到，只需少量投資，就能讓你的車脫穎而出，或至少不會落後。這就是背後的邏輯。

And it's all similar to airbags. It's all about safety and actually making your drive more -- driving experience much more pleasurable, where the car helps take the stress off your -- you having to be full attention on the road all the time. So it's safety and convenience and driving enjoyment, that's pushing the LiDAR development.

這一切都與安全氣囊類似。一切都是為了安全，並真正讓你的駕駛體驗更加愉悅，讓汽車幫助你減輕壓力——無需時刻全神貫注於路面。因此，正是安全、便利和駕駛樂趣推動著光達的發展。

As there are no further questions now, I'd like to turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.

現在沒有其他問題了，我想把電話轉回給公司，請他們做總結發言。

Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have further questions, please feel free to contact our IR team. This concludes today's call, and we look forward to speaking to you again next quarter. Thank you, and goodbye.

再次感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時聯絡我們的投資者關係團隊。今天的電話會議到此結束，我們期待下個季度再次與您交流。謝謝，再見。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。謝謝。