使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings conference call for Hesai Group. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Please note that today's conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to the first speaker today, Rachel Yang, Vice President of Operations for the Company. Please go ahead.
女士們,先生們,大家好!感謝您參加禾賽集團2022年第四季及全年業績電話會議。目前,所有與會者均處於收聽模式。請注意,今天的電話會議正在錄音中。現在,我將把電話交給今天的第一位發言人,公司營運副總裁Rachel Yang。請開始。
Rachel Yang - V.P., Operations
Rachel Yang - V.P., Operations
Thank you, operator. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining Hesai Group's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings conference call. Our earnings press release was distributed earlier today with newswire services and is posted in the Investor Relations section of our Web site at investors.hesaitech.com along with the webcast access to today's call. On today's call, we have our CEO David Li, and our Global CFO Louis Hsieh. David and Louis will each provide their prepared remarks and we'll conclude the call with a Q&A section.
謝謝接線生。大家好,感謝您參加禾賽集團2022年第四季及全年業績電話會議。我們的業績新聞稿已於今日稍早透過新聞通訊社發布,並發佈於我們網站investors.hesaitech.com的「投資者關係」板塊,同時提供今日電話會議的網路直播。今天的電話會議邀請了我們的執行長李大衛和全球財務長謝家華。李大衛和謝家華將分別發表各自的發言,最後我們將進行問答環節。
I like to remind everyone that our earnings calls and investor materials contain forward-looking statements, which are subject to future events and uncertainties. Our actual results may differ materially from those forward-looking statements. All forward-looking statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement in our earnings release and the risk factors included in our filings with the SEC.
我想提醒大家,我們的收益電話會議和投資者資料包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受未來事件和不確定因素的影響。我們的實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述應與我們收益報告中的警示聲明以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中的風險因素一並考慮。
Finally, this could also include certain non-GAAP financial measures. You should carefully consider the comparable GAAP measures. Reconciliation of non-GAAP and GAAP measures is included in your earnings release.
最後,這也可能包括某些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標。您應該仔細考慮可比較的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標。非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 和公認會計準則 (GAAP) 指標的對帳表已包含在您的收益報告中。
I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, David Li. Please go ahead.
現在我想把電話轉給我們的執行長 David Li。請講。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Thank you, Rachel, and welcome, everyone, to Hesai's first earning conference call as a public Company, I'd like to first express my gratitude to our investors, partners, dedicated employees and everyone who contributed to our successful IPO on February 9th.
謝謝 Rachel,歡迎大家參加禾賽作為上市公司的首次財報電話會議,首先我想向我們的投資者、合作夥伴、敬業的員工以及所有為我們 2 月 9 日成功 IPO 做出貢獻的人表示感謝。
During our IPO, Hesai sold 10 million ADRs at USD19 per share, and the underwriters partially exercised their over-allotment option, raising approximately USD192.4 million. Listing on the Nasdaq marks a milestone in Hesai's growth. We're excited to begin life as a public Company and to deliver long-term value to shareholders, employees, and other stakeholders.
禾賽科技在IPO期間以每股19美元的價格發行了1,000萬股美國存託憑證,承銷商部分行使了超額配售權,募集資金約1.924億美元。在納斯達克上市標誌著禾賽科技發展歷程中的一個里程碑。我們非常高興能夠以上市公司的身份開啟新的篇章,並為股東、員工和其他利害關係人創造長期價值。
Now, moving onto our operating results for the fourth quarter and 2022. We continued our strong growth momentum in fourth quarter. In September, the first Company in the world to deliver more than 10,000 LiDAR units in a month.
現在,我們來看看第四季和2022年的營運表現。我們在第四季延續了強勁的成長勢頭。 9月份,我們成為全球首家單月交付量超過10,000台雷射雷達的公司。
Total shipments during the fourth quarter reached 47,515 units, among which ADAS LiDAR shipments accounted for 91%. Note that in December, we shipped more than 20,000 LiDAR units. These achievements are groundbreaking in the industry.
第四季總出貨量達47,515台,其中ADAS雷射雷達出貨量佔91%。值得一提的是,12月我們的光達出貨量超過2萬台。這些成績在業界具有開創性的意義。
In the fourth quarter, our new ADAS LiDAR product continued to win new customers, including, firstly, the largest EV maker in China, and secondly, the largest OEM, and thirdly, electric technology company, Rox, followed in January by Seres, a leading China-based E.V. OEM. These were followed by a design win with Didi's autonomous driving business. Additionally, in February 2023, the Company secured a LiDAR design win for AT128 with the Li Auto on its new battery electric vehicle platform.
第四季度,我們全新的 ADAS 光達產品持續贏得新客戶,包括:首先是中國最大的電動車製造商,其次是最大的整車廠,第三是電動科技公司 Rox。 1 月份,該公司又贏得了中國領先的電動車整車廠 Seres 的訂單。隨後,公司又贏得了滴滴自動駕駛業務的設計訂單。此外,2023 年 2 月,該公司贏得了理想汽車全新純電動車平台上 AT128 雷射雷達的設計訂單。
Our successful Q4 capped a successful 2022. During the year, we proved that our mass production capabilities empower us to capitalize the realm of ADAS and autonomous mobility. Our total shipment in 2022 reached more than 80,000 LiDAR units and accumulated and surpassed 100,000 shipped units.
我們第四季的成功為2022年畫上了圓滿的句點。在這一年中,我們證明了量產能力使我們能夠在ADAS和自動駕駛領域中大展拳腳。 2022年,我們的雷射雷達總出貨量超過8萬台,累計出貨量突破10萬台。
That represents an explosive 337% CAGR since 2020, significantly outpacing the global LiDAR market. In fact, our LiDAR deliveries and their revenues for 2022 were higher than the cumulative LiDAR unit deliveries and its revenues of all eight of our U.S. public listed peers combined in 2022. Notably, we shipped more than two times the number of automotive LiDAR units that our eight U.S. listed peers combined.
自2020年以來,我們的光達出貨量和收入實現了驚人的337%複合年增長率,遠超全球光達市場。事實上,我們2022年的光達出貨量和收入,高於我們所有八家美國上市同業在2022年的累計光達出貨量和收入總和。值得注意的是,我們的汽車光達出貨量是這八家美國上市同業總和的兩倍以上。
The backdrop of our success is our people. In 2022, we grew our talent force to more than 1,000, most of whom are on the R&D, actually in engineering team, a scale significantly higher than our peers. Our success is further defined by our innovative customers' and partners' in-house manufacturing capabilities and breakthrough LiDAR technologies.
我們成功的基石是我們的員工。 2022年,我們的人才隊伍已超過1,000人,其中大多數從事研發工作,實際上是工程團隊,規模遠超過同行。我們創新的客戶和合作夥伴的內部製造能力以及突破性的光達技術,進一步定義了我們的成功。
In the ADAS market, we're working with many market-leading OEM partners, including Li Auto, Changan Automobile, Lotus, JiDU, HiPhi, Rox in autonomous mobility market where we are dominant.
在ADAS市場,我們與許多市場領先的OEM合作夥伴合作,包括理想汽車、長安汽車、Lotus、極度、HiPhi、Rox,我們在自動駕駛行動市場佔據主導地位。
Our customer base includes some of the most prominent global players, including world's leading robotaxi technology company in the U.S. Our customers also include Aurora, Pony.ai, WeRide, and [Algolux].
我們的客戶群包括一些全球最著名的公司,包括美國世界領先的自動駕駛計程車技術公司。我們的客戶還包括 Aurora、Pony.ai、WeRide 和 [Algolux]。
In the robotics market, we provide products for the largest player in China, Meituan, alongside global players such as Nuro and others. Our commitment to building superior products, we chose to optimize performance, quality and cost is a key to our wins in both ADAS and autonomous mobility markets.
在機器人市場,我們為中國最大的機器人公司美團以及 Nuro 等全球企業提供產品。我們致力於打造卓越的產品,並致力於優化性能、品質和成本,這是我們在 ADAS 和自動駕駛市場取得成功的關鍵。
We believe an advance in-house manufacturing capabilities are critical for developing LiDAR products like ours that utilize fast and advancing technologies. We combine R&D advances in application-specific integrated circuit, also known as ASIC, to drive semiconductor performance with in-house manufacturing capabilities to design, iterate, and bring the best-in-class products to our customers.
我們相信,先進的內部製造能力對於開發像我們這樣利用快速發展技術的光達產品至關重要。我們將專用積體電路(ASIC)的研發成果與內部製造能力結合,以提升半導體性能,從而設計、迭代並為客戶提供一流的產品。
Our integrated in-house model enables fast development and proprietary knowhow to reinforce each other, establishing a virtual cycle and a formidable competitive advantage. Nuro also helps us to optimize cost, deliver higher performance solutions, and make our supply chain safer.
我們的整合式內部模式使快速開發和專有技術相輔相成,建立了虛擬循環,並帶來了強大的競爭優勢。 Nuro 也幫助我們優化成本,提供更高效能的解決方案,並提升供應鏈的安全性。
Through this model and our talented R&D and manufacturing engineering teams copy approximately 700 (inaudible). We developed our FT120 solid-state blind spot LiDAR sensor with no moving parts inside, designed for ADAS series production vehicles.
透過此模型,我們優秀的研發和製造工程團隊複製了約700個(聽不清楚)。我們開發了FT120固態盲點雷射雷達感測器,該感測器內部無活動部件,專為ADAS系列量產車輛設計。
We plan to launch the FT120 later this year. In addition to FT120, during the course of the year, we expect to announce several really exciting industry-leading LiDAR products, so you have to stay tuned for those future release announcements.
我們計劃在今年稍後推出 FT120。除了 FT120 之外,我們預計今年還將發布幾款令人興奮的行業領先 LiDAR 產品,敬請期待我們未來的發佈公告。
We're proud that Hesai has become the most commercially successful LiDAR Company in the world. To-date, we signed 11 OEMs, six of which will be in mass production, and all 11 by 2024.
我們為禾賽成為全球商業化最成功的光達公司而感到自豪。迄今為止,我們已簽約11家OEM廠商,其中6家將實現量產,並將在2024年前完成全部11家OEM廠商的量產。
We're presently in discussion with several other leading Chinese and global OEMs, which we - which we expect to add in 2023 and look forward to sharing more information with you in due course.
我們目前正在與其他幾家中國和全球領先的 OEM 廠商進行討論,我們預計將在 2023 年將這些廠商納入其中,並期待在適當的時候與您分享更多資訊。
Moving forward, we'll continue to build partners and relationships with OEMs and autonomous technology companies, perfect core LiDAR technologies and manufacturing capabilities. Our growth has just begun, and our path is clear. We're optimistic about the future trajectory.
展望未來,我們將繼續與原始設備製造商和自動駕駛技術公司建立合作夥伴關係,以完善核心光達技術和製造能力。我們的成長才剛開始,道路清晰。我們對未來的發展軌跡充滿信心。
With that, I'd now like to turn the call over to Louis, who will share about our financial performance for Q4 2022 and our outlook for the rest of the 2023. Louis, please go ahead.
說完這些,我現在想把電話交給路易斯,他將分享我們 2022 年第四季的財務業績以及我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。路易斯,請繼續。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
All right. Thank you, David. First, I want to thank everyone for attending Hesai inaugural earnings call as a public Company in its operating figures. Our commercial success is evident in our financial performance.
好的。謝謝你,David。首先,我要感謝大家出席禾賽公司作為上市公司的首次財報電話會議。我們的商業成功體現在我們的財務表現上。
To be - to be mindful of the length of our earnings call today, I encourage listeners to refer to the earnings press release for the 2022 and full year results for further details. Clearly, Hesai had a stellar 2022 as we extended our market leadership in LiDAR solutions, both for autonomous mobility and now for ADAS.
考慮到我們今天的財報電話會議篇幅較長,我建議聽眾參閱2022年及全年業績新聞稿,以了解更多詳情。顯然,禾賽科技在2022年取得了輝煌的成績,我們鞏固了在雷射雷達解決方案領域的市場領導地位,無論是在自動駕駛領域,還是現在的ADAS領域。
Today, I will just go over the highlights of our Q4 and full year 2022 as I'd like to spend the bulk of our time together talking about our future. We achieved record net revenues of RMB409.2 million, equivalent to USD59.3 million in fourth quarter of 2022, representing an increase of 56.6% from the same period of 2021, and an increase of 22.6% from the third quarter of 2022.
今天,我將只回顧我們2022年第四季和全年的亮點,因為我想花更多時間與大家一起探討未來。 2022年第四季度,我們實現了創紀錄的淨收入,達到人民幣4.092億元(約合5,930萬美元),較2021年同期成長56.6%,較2022年第三季成長22.6%。
Gross margin was 30% for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to 52.4% for the same period of 2021 and 0.1% for the third quarter of 2022. Net revenues were RMB1.203 billion, equal to USD174.4 million for the full year of 2022, representing an increase of 66.9% from the previous year.
2022年第四季毛利率為30%,2021年同期為52.4%,2022年第三季為0.1%。 2022年全年淨收入為人民幣12.03億元,約1.744億美元,較去年成長66.9%。
Gross margin was 39.2% for the full year of 2022, compared with 53% for the prior year. Many of you have asked about our gross margin profile as we enter the nascent but rapidly growing ADAS market.
2022年全年毛利率為39.2%,而上年度為53%。隨著我們進入新興但快速成長的ADAS市場,許多人詢問了我們的毛利率狀況。
2023 is a transition year for Hesai as we migrate from traditionally higher margin autonomous mobility of Pandar, XT and QT to the exploding but relative structurally lower margins ADAS sales of AT and FT.
2023 年是禾賽的轉型之年,我們將從 Pandar、XT 和 QT 等傳統利潤率較高的自動駕駛出行領域轉向 AT 和 FT 等銷量激增但利潤率相對較低的 ADAS 領域。
To give you an understanding of the difference, our average ASP for autonomous mobility has been over USD5,000, with approximately 50% gross margin compared to that for ADAS, where the ASP is expected to be around USD500 digit to low double-digit gross margins by yearend.
為了讓您了解差異,我們自動駕駛汽車的平均 ASP 超過 5,000 美元,毛利率約為 50%,而 ADAS 的 ASP 預計到年底將在 5 億美元左右到低兩位數的毛利率。
In 2022, our ADAS AT sales accounted for about 25%, that's USD46 million, but expected to -account for 40% to 45% of revenue in 2023 with an expected more than 3x increase from the 62,000 units in 2022.
2022年,我們的ADAS AT銷售額約佔25%,即4,600萬美元,但預計2023年將佔營收的40%至45%,預計比2022年的62,000台成長3倍以上。
The bulk of the ADAS shipments will be in second half of 2023, as we expect to be SOP with all - at least OEM partners by Q3 2023. It will take some time for us to gain economies of scale in manufacturing, efficiency, and utilization, material procurement and labor intensity to reach our long-term target of 25% to 30% gross margins in ADAS for AT and its (inaudible).
大部分 ADAS 出貨量將在 2023 年下半年實現,因為我們預計到 2023 年第三季將與所有 OEM 合作夥伴實現 SOP。我們需要一些時間才能在製造、效率和利用率、材料採購和勞動強度方面實現規模經濟,以達到 AT 及其(聽不清楚)ADAS 毛利率 25% 至 30% 的長期目標。
Against this very strong demand and order backlog backdrop, entering the first half of 2023, we are going to expand our manufacturing footprint with investment in two plants and to get both operational by Q2 of this year.
在這種非常強勁的需求和訂單積壓的背景下,進入 2023 年上半年,我們將透過投資兩家工廠來擴大我們的製造足跡,並使兩家工廠在今年第二季度投入營運。
Let me give you more color about this capacity expansion. First, we are excited to confirm that our new in-house manufacturing facility, Maxwell, a state-of-the-art comprehensive art innovation design center, manufacturing and testing complex in Shanghai, covering over 600,000 square feet will come online in Q2 of this year.
讓我來詳細介紹一下此次產能擴張。首先,我們很高興地確認,我們位於上海的全新內部製造工廠 Maxwell 將於今年第二季投入使用。 Maxwell 是一座位於上海、佔地超過 60 萬平方英尺的先進綜合藝術創新設計中心、製造和測試中心。
Maxwell will expand our manufacturing cap of 1 million units in terms of annual shipments and will equip us with a full-range testing capability. Second, in late Q2 or Q3, we plan to open and start another AT production line in our 300,000 square foot new manufacturing facility in [Hong Kong], which will also eventually have capacity for over 1 million units annually and be highly automated.
Maxwell 將擴大我們每年 100 萬台的生產能力,並為我們配備全方位的測試能力。其次,我們計劃在第二季末或第三季度,在位於香港的 30 萬平方英尺的新製造工廠內啟用另一條自動變速箱 (AT) 生產線,該生產線最終也將擁有超過 100 萬台的年產能,並實現高度自動化。
Along with our two smaller production facilities, which currently manufacture Pandar, QT, XT, and one line for AT128, our [total] capacity will exceed 2 million units on an annual basis by yearend.
加上我們目前生產 Pandar、QT、XT 的兩家較小的生產工廠和一條 AT128 生產線,到年底我們的總產能將超過 200 萬台。
The combined effects of product mix with ADAS increasing in revenue mix from approximately 25% to 45% of revenue and the opening of two large production facilities which will take time to reach optimal scale efficiency and utilization will put downward pressure on blended gross margin percentage in 2023, but rebound somewhat in 2024. Long-term target for blended gross margin remains at 33% to 35% for Hesai.
產品結構調整,ADAS 在收入結構中的佔比將從約 25% 增至 45%,加之兩家大型生產設施的投入運營需要時間才能達到最佳規模效率和利用率,這些因素將對 2023 年的綜合毛利率造成下行壓力,但會在 2024 年有所反彈。禾賽的長期綜合毛利率目標仍為 33% 至 35%。
Now, I'd like to turn to our business outlook. For the first quarter of 2023, the Company expects net revenue to be between RMB390 million, USD56.5 million, and RMB410 million, USD59.4 million, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 57% to 65%.
現在,我想談談我們的業務展望。 2023年第一季,公司預計淨收入將在人民幣3.9億元(約5,650萬美元)至人民幣4.1億元(約5,940萬美元)之間,年增約57%至65%。
The above outlook is based on the current market conditions and reflects the Company's preliminary estimates of market and operating conditions and customer demand, which all are subject to change.
上述展望基於當前市場狀況,反映了公司對市場和營運狀況以及客戶需求的初步估計,所有這些都可能發生變化。
This concludes our prepared remarks for today. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
今天的準備發言到此結束。接線員,我們現在可以回答問題了。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from Olivia Xu from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
謝謝。 (操作員指示)。第一個問題來自高盛的 Olivia Xu。請繼續提問。
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Hi, David and Louis. Congrats on the Company solid performance. This is Olivia Xu from Goldman. May I have two questions? The first one is about the partnership. We noticed that Hesai has made a breakthrough in the partnership expansion and product nomination, including BYD, Seres and then the [Auto Pure Easy] platform.
嗨,David 和 Louis。祝賀公司業績穩健。我是高盛的 Olivia Xu。請問有兩個問題?第一個問題是關於合作夥伴關係的。我們注意到禾賽在合作夥伴拓展和產品提名方面取得了突破,包括比亞迪、賽力斯以及[Auto Pure Easy]平台。
On the Li Auto side, the Company has recently launched the L version of L7 and L8. Just wondering where it cannibalize the high end volume that impacts the LiDAR installation on the two models.
在理想汽車方面,該公司最近推出了L7和L8的L版本。我想知道它會如何蠶食高端市場的銷量,從而影響這兩款車型上LiDAR的安裝。
And in addition, is there any more information can be shared on the supply relationship of - to BYD and the Seres, for example, the timeline, which car models and the estimated volume? Thank you. That's my first question.
另外,能否分享更多關於比亞迪和賽雷的供應關係的資訊?例如,時間表、哪些車型以及預計的產量?謝謝。這是我的第一個問題。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Hi, this is David Li. Thank you for the question. Let me maybe address the Li Auto one first because it's one of our largest clients. So, you're right that the LiDARs are - or the standard configuration for the L9, and then they are optional for the L8 and L7.
嗨,我是 David Li。謝謝你的提問。我先來談談理想汽車,因為它是我們最大的客戶之一。你說得對,光達是 L9 的標準配置,而 L8 和 L7 則是選配。
And for both editions, they have the AD Max, which is the one with LiDAR, and the - and AD Pro, which is the one without LiDAR. But having said that, the L7 and L8 are larger volume products so - and the take rate is actually pretty decent even today. And that's why we're able to come up with our projections for the rest of the year based on the take rate of the L7, L8 and the L9 and all the LiDARs, not from all our clients.
這兩個版本都包含配備光達的 AD Max 和不含光達的 AD Pro。不過話說回來,L7 和 L8 是銷量較大的產品,所以即使在今天,它們的銷售量也相當不錯。正因如此,我們才能根據 L7、L8、L9 以及所有光達的銷售量(而非所有客戶的銷售量)來預測今年剩餘時間的銷售量。
And also, one interesting note is that - and if you watch very carefully of the Li Auto L7 release, they actually mentioned that now, by end of the year, they're going to have more urban NOA, Navigation on AutoPilot, functions when it's with LiDAR, which means that the version with LiDAR will be much more valuable in terms of the - its ability to provide advanced driving functions.
另外,一個有趣的現像是 - 如果你仔細觀察 Li Auto L7 的發布,你會發現他們實際上提到,到今年年底,他們將在配備 LiDAR 的情況下提供更多的城市 NOA、自動駕駛導航功能,這意味著配備 LiDAR 的版本在提供高級駕駛功能的能力方面將更有價值。
And that was actually a very big boost on the take rate of the Max version of the L7, so which is extremely encouraging to know that even L7 is technically considered a more affordable version. You would assume that people wouldn't have a higher take rate for the one - the configuration with the LiDAR and turned out that it's not entirely true. People still like it, people still buy that with the more expensive configuration because they really look forward to the driving function that will be available down the road.
這實際上極大地提升了L7 Max版的購買率,因此,即使L7從技術層面上也被認為是更實惠的版本,這令人非常鼓舞。你可能會認為,人們對配備LiDAR的配置不會有更高的購買率,但事實證明並非如此。人們仍然喜歡它,仍然會購買更昂貴的配置,因為他們非常期待未來能夠實現的駕駛功能。
And also, on top of it, I want to point out the fact that when you buy a smart E.V. today, you're paying the price today, but you're not getting the full function yet. Most of - a lot of the functions, especially on the autonomous driving side, are being released via OTA, over-the-air to you over time, which means that technically, you pay the money already, but the value will go up over time, which is a good signal for us because that's why we believe over time, more and more people will be buying into the function as the value go up. That's why long term, we're very optimistic on that.
此外,我想指出的是,今天購買智慧電動車,你支付的是價格,但尚未獲得全部功能。大多數功能,尤其是自動駕駛功能,都是透過OTA(無線下載)逐步向你推送的。這意味著,從技術上講,你已經支付了費用,但其價值會隨著時間的推移而上漲。這對我們來說是一個好訊號,因為我們相信,隨著時間的推移,隨著價值的上升,會有越來越多的人購買這些功能。因此,從長遠來看,我們對此非常樂觀。
And now, and do you want me to comment on the Seres and BYD, right? It's confirmed that we started working with some of the models. Unfortunately, we don't have - I don't have more information about the more models that we're in discussion with them and some of them have not come to the decisions yet.
現在,你想讓我評論一下Seres和比亞迪嗎?我們已經確認開始與部分車型合作。遺憾的是,關於我們正在與他們討論的更多車型,我目前還沒有更多信息,而且有些車型他們還沒有做出決定。
But what I could say is that because both Seres and the BYD is not on their entire fleet yet. There are quite a few exciting design wins that could come out later this year, or even some of them are very soon. So, we look forward to it and we'll keep you updated on that.
但我可以說的是,Seres 和比亞迪的車型都還沒有加入他們的全部車型陣容。今年稍後可能會有不少令人興奮的設計方案問世,甚至有些很快就會面世。所以我們對此充滿期待,並將持續更新。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Olivia, this is Louis. For Seres, we do expect to ship this year. BYD is more likely - the volume will be next year when their models come out.
奧莉維亞,我是路易斯。 Seres 的出貨量預計今年會達到。比亞迪的可能性更大——量產時間會在明年,等他們的車型上市的時候。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Yes.
是的。
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Thank you. That's my first.
謝謝。這是我的第一次。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Does that answer your question?
這回答了你的問題嗎?
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Yes, right, that's very helpful. My next question is about the implication of the recent E.V. pricing cut. We noticed that year-to-date, Tesla has a regular price in China and a lot of other E.V. makers have to revise their pricing as well.
是的,這很有幫助。我的下一個問題是關於最近電動車降價的影響。我們注意到,今年迄今,特斯拉在中國的售價保持不變,許多其他電動車製造商也不得不調整價格。
Given the diminishing government subsidies, it is likely that the carmakers' margin will get squeezed. Just wondering, does the pricing pressure has passed to the LiDAR suppliers now and was that a responsive strategy towards the E.V. pricing cut? Thanks.
鑑於政府補貼減少,汽車製造商的利潤率可能會受到擠壓。我想知道,價格壓力現在是否已經轉嫁給了光達供應商?這是應對電動車降價的策略嗎?謝謝。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Yes, we are observing that now also already. What I like to point out is that if you look at the pricing cut phenomena, it's really on the more affordable part of the spectrum of the market.
是的,我們現在也觀察到了這一點。我想指出的是,如果你觀察一下降價現象,你會發現它實際上發生在市場上價格更實惠的部分。
If you think about it, the nature of LiDAR, it's at least now and is - the penetration is mostly on the more premium part of the market, especially if you look at Li Auto. I don't think they have sold anything that's below RMB300,000.
如果你仔細想想,LiDAR 的本質是,至少現在是這樣——它的滲透率主要集中在高端市場,尤其是理想汽車。我認為他們沒有賣出任何低於 30 萬元的產品。
And it's at least from what we received and observed that it is much less impacted, if at all by the pricing cut. And we do expect a lot of competition on the below 200K level for the cars, but those are also not our typical choices for cars when they want to buy LiDAR.
至少從我們收到和觀察到的情況來看,降價對它的影響要小得多,甚至根本沒有影響。我們確實預計20萬以下的汽車市場競爭會很激烈,但這些市場也不是我們為想要購買光達的汽車提供的典型選擇。
If you're buying a car that's, like, costing you RMB150K, you probably don't really care about LiDARs today, right? You want the LiDARs to get on all the big screens and all that today, the batteries, right?
如果你要買一輛售價15萬元人民幣的汽車,你現在可能不太在意光達,對吧?你希望光達能裝在各種大螢幕上,還有電池,對吧?
And it only becomes a much more serious interest when you're paying for, I would say, at least RMB200,000, ideally RMB250,000. And that's the range where people started to look for things that's beyond battery and infotainment system, and that's where LiDAR became a symbol of intelligent driving.
只有當你花費至少20萬元,最好是25萬元時,你才會真正感興趣。在這個價位,人們開始關注電池和資訊娛樂系統以外的功能,而光達也因此成為智慧駕駛的象徵。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
I think, Olivia, for us, as David said, we're basically more in the higher end of each of these lines, so we probably wouldn't see as much impact from price reductions at the lower end of the - of their pipelines. But for us all, six OEM shipping this year, the majority will come in in Q3 and Q4. They will be in cars above RMB250,000. So, they're less impacted by price type competition.
奧利維亞,正如大衛所說,我認為我們基本上更專注於每條生產線的高端產品,因此降價可能不會對低階產品線產生太大影響。但對我們所有公司而言,今年有六家整車廠出貨,大部分將在第三季和第四季交貨。這些車型的售價將在25萬元以上。因此,它們受價格競爭的影響較小。
And then the bulk of the volumes will be in '24. We expect volume to at least double or triple from 2023 levels. And that's when we'll, I guess, see if the price increases will affect the demand.
大部分產量將在2024年達到高峰。我們預計產量將比2023年的水準至少增加一到兩倍。到那時,我想我們就能看看價格上漲是否會影響需求了。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Okay.
好的。
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Olivia Xu - Analyst
Okay, got it. That's very clear. Thank you, David. Thank you, Louis.
好的,明白了。非常清楚。謝謝你,大衛。謝謝你,路易斯。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Thank you, Olivia.
謝謝你,奧莉維亞。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Next, please.
有請下一位。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Tim Hsiao from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
謝謝。下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的Tim Hsiao。請繼續提問。
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Hi, David. Hi, Louis. Congratulations on the solid result. I've got two questions. So, the first one, I think David already touched on some feedback and observations about the consumers on the LiDAR adoption.
嗨,David。嗨,Louis。恭喜你取得如此紮實的成果。我有兩個問題。第一個問題,我想David已經提到了一些關於消費者對LiDAR採用的回饋和觀察。
But based on your recent conversations with carmakers, is there any change - any change to their thoughts about adoption pace of LiDAR during the mounting pricing pressure [being on the question]?
但是根據您最近與汽車製造商的對話,在價格壓力不斷增加的情況下,他們對 LiDAR 採用速度的看法有什麼變化嗎?
Will there be any risk of near-term downgrading to expect or of their upcoming models with lower adoption of LiDAR or actually the carmakers would be getting more aggressive to upgrade the spec with more LiDAR adoptions to differentiate themselves? So, this year, it was a little bit about what the feedback on the carmaker may be? Thank you.
近期是否有降級的風險?或者即將推出的車型中 LiDAR 的採用率會降低?或者實際上,汽車製造商會更積極升級規格,並更多地採用 LiDAR 來實現差異化?所以,今年您能談談汽車製造商的回饋嗎?謝謝。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes. Tim is your question about, in our conversations with carmakers, are they more or less inclined to use LiDAR for next year sort of what you're getting at?
是的。 Tim,你的問題是,在我們與汽車製造商的對話中,他們明年是否更傾向於使用光達?
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Yes, yes, because I think some of the carmakers might consider to be more cost-conscious and buy more, in fact ...
是的,是的,因為我認為一些汽車製造商可能會考慮更加註重成本併購買更多,事實上...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
... (inaudible) real life (inaudible), but probably the other customers they're even more (inaudible) in considering to adapt LiDAR. So what's the feedback of your major customers (inaudible) of that?
……(聽不清楚)現實生活中(聽不清楚),但其他客戶可能更(聽不清楚)考慮採用光達。那麼,你們的主要客戶(聽不清楚)對此有何回饋?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
I think this goes in line with Olivia's question is that our LiDAR are typically on the premium models, so less likely that they will cut this because it is a marketing play, right? So if you have a LiDAR and your competitor doesn't have LiDAR, it's actually a big selling point.
我認為這和奧利維亞的問題一致,我們的光達通常只用於高端車型,所以他們不太可能因為行銷策略而取消這項功能,對吧?所以,如果你有光達,而你的競爭對手沒有,這實際上是一個很大的賣點。
In addition, these models are coming on '24, so what they don't want to do is their new generation models be seen as really standard models with no differentiation. So, so far, as far as I know, we have not seen carmakers in our 11 OEMs, they say they're going to cut LiDAR out of any models or reduce the effect of LiDAR in those models.
此外,這些車型將於2024年上市,所以他們不希望新一代車型被視為毫無差異化的標準車型。所以,據我所知,我們目前為止的11家OEM廠商中,還沒有哪家汽車製造商表示要從任何車型中移除光達,或降低光達在這些車型中的作用。
Those models are on track, one thing that may happen is if there's a delay in the SOP of some of these models in '24 that several of these carmakers, these are brand new models, so there is some delay risk on that side. But I haven't seen anywhere they actually cut the LiDAR out.
這些車型目前進展順利,但有一件事可能會發生:如果2024年部分車型的SOP(標準生產計劃)出現延遲,而這些車型是全新車型,那麼這方面存在一些延遲風險。但我還沒看到他們真的取消LiDAR功能。
Have you, David?
大衛,你真的有嗎?
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Correct, yeah, no.
正確,是的,不是。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Did that answer your question, Tim?
這回答了你的問題嗎,提姆?
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
(Inaudible), yes. Thank you, Louis. My second question is about the manufacturing ...
(聽不清楚),是的。謝謝你,路易斯。我的第二個問題是關於製造…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
(Inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
... my second question is about the manufacturing ability because I think this year's important milestone would be the launch of our new plant, Maxwell. So would you please share with us the current progress of our new plant? Is it still on track to kickstart the next production in the midyear and all the ramp-up (inaudible) on track to meet our target? Thank you.
……我的第二個問題是關於製造能力的,因為我認為今年最重要的里程碑是我們新工廠Maxwell的投產。您能否與我們分享我們新工廠目前的進展?它是否仍有望在年中啟動下一輪生產?所有產能提升(聽不清楚)是否都能依計畫完成我們的目標?謝謝。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Okay, okay. We have Sun Kai, one of our other co-founders here and Chief Scientist. He can answer the question. When will Maxwell be operational?
好的,好的。我們的另一位共同創辦人兼首席科學家孫凱在座。他可以回答這個問題。 Maxwell 什麼時候可以投入營運?
Kai Sun - Co-Founder & CSO
Kai Sun - Co-Founder & CSO
Okay. So for the (inaudible) will be finished in Q2 this year, probably the middle or late Q2. And we'll have some automatic line by the end of this year, yes. That's the plan for Maxwell.
好的。 (聽不清楚)將在今年第二季完成,可能是第二季中後期。到今年年底,我們將會有一些自動化生產線。這是Maxwell的計劃。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
And then for Hangzhou, Tim, that will come after Maxwell. And we expect to have one or two operational lines in Hangzhou. This will be for new redesigns. So the existing AT128, we have one line already in Shanghai that's producing.
提姆,至於杭州,那是在麥克斯韋爾之後。我們預計在杭州會有一到兩條生產線投入運營,用於新的重新設計。現有的AT128,我們在上海已經有一條生產線在生產。
As we said in the earnings release, our goal this year is to work on the gross margin profile since ADAS typically has a lower gross margin profile. So we have a redesign of the AT coming out, and we don't want to put it in the same manufacturing line as the current AT. So the Hangzhou plant will be most likely the current plan is they use one line for the new AT redesign that will be much lower cost and that will improve the gross margin profile.
正如我們在財報中所說,我們今年的目標是提升毛利率,因為ADAS的毛利率通常較低。因此,我們即將推出重新設計的AT車型,但我們不想將其與現有的AT車型放在同一條生產線上生產。因此,杭州工廠很可能將採用目前的計劃,即使用一條生產線來生產新的AT車型,這將大大降低成本,並改善毛利率。
Okay. You have to stay tuned (inaudible).
好的。請繼續關注(聽不清楚)。
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Thank you very much (inaudible).
非常感謝(聽不清楚)。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Okay. So that's why we opened two (inaudible). We don't want to cross the two production lines, (inaudible) one and then one manufacturing a later model the same one. Plus, we believe we will use that capacity up by '24, '25. So we're just getting the factories ready ahead of the expected demand, which we think is a prudent thing to do. Okay.
好的。這就是我們開設兩條(聽不清楚)生產線的原因。我們不想讓兩條生產線混在一起,(聽不清楚)一條接一條地生產同一款車型的後續車型。另外,我們預計到2024年或2025年,這些產能就會用完。所以我們只是提前做好了工廠的準備,以應對預期的需求,我們認為這是謹慎的做法。好的。
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Tim Hsiao - Analyst
Okay, thank you, Louis.
好的,謝謝你,路易斯。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Thank you, Tim. Next question please.
謝謝,蒂姆。請問下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Bin Wang from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
謝謝。下一個問題來自瑞信的王斌。請繼續提問。
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
(FOREIGN) My question (inaudible) global automaker (inaudible). If any chance this year we can (inaudible) from the global automaker (inaudible)? That's number one question.
(外國)我的問題是(聽不清楚)全球汽車製造商(聽不清楚)。今年我們有機會(聽不清楚)從全球汽車製造商(聽不清楚)那裡了解一下嗎?這是第一個問題。
Number two is (inaudible) margin. (Inaudible) last year (inaudible) there's been about 30% gross margin (inaudible) between the ADAS, LiDAR and the (inaudible). And what's the (inaudible) first quarter (inaudible) and the full-year for the two LiDAR products? Thank you.
第二個是利潤率。去年,ADAS、LiDAR 和 LiDAR 的毛利率約為 30%。那麼,這兩款 LiDAR 產品第一季和全年的毛利率是多少?謝謝。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
David will take the first question.
大衛將回答第一個問題。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Yes.
是的。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
And I'll take the second question.
我來回答第二個問題。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Yes. Thank you, Louis. So I guess, I'll take that. Should I be doing it in English or Chinese?
是的。謝謝你,路易斯。我想我會接受的。我該用英文還是中文?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
English.
英語。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Okay, cool. So question is not about the global side of the business. And it's hard for me to directly comment the competitors because it (inaudible), but I want to point out that in our definition, when we say a global deal and we consider only from the global programs, right, and one is talking about the localization of some of the joint venture car models and all that. And we actually have some of them, but for us it's a China deal. For global, truly global, it has to be sourced from the car models that are shipping globally, which are typically the European and Americans.
好的,很酷。所以問題不在於業務的全球層面。我很難直接評論競爭對手,因為(聽不清楚),但我想指出的是,在我們的定義中,當我們說全球交易時,我們只考慮全球項目,對吧,其中一個指的是一些合資車型的本地化等等。我們確實有一些這樣的車型,但對我們來說,這是一項中國交易。對於全球,真正的全球,它必須來自那些在全球銷售的車型,通常是歐洲和美國車型。
And so, we are in late-stage discussions with multiple, including Europe and American. That will come out in Q3 and Q4 as the final results this year. We're in the either RFI or RFQ phase of them. So we are very optimistic about it for the reasons, I think, we explained in the past. I'll quickly repeat them.
因此,我們正在與包括歐洲和美國在內的多家公司進行後期洽談。最終結果將在今年第三季和第四季公佈。目前我們正處於RFI或RFQ階段。因此,我們對此非常樂觀,原因我想我們之前已經解釋過了。我快速地重複一下。
One is that this round of sourcing from the global OEMs, they're really focused on the practicality of stability to deliver. And in the past., a lot of the global peers have not demonstrated the capability to deliver volume products as ADAS.
一是,這一輪全球OEM的採購,他們真正注重的是交付穩定性和實用性。而過去,許多全球同行尚未展現出像ADAS這樣批量交付產品的能力。
As you can imagine, this is one of the most critical ability for any automotive vendors to do. And we illustrated that. We shipped more than 80,000 units in total. And I think the official number for the ADAS sensors, that's close to 50 ...
你可以想像,這是任何汽車供應商都必須具備的最關鍵能力之一。我們也證明了這一點。我們的總出貨量超過8萬台。我認為ADAS感測器的官方數字接近50台…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
(Inaudible) 62,000.
(聽不清楚) 62,000。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
... 60,000 ...
…60,000…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
... ADAS sensors. And that's one of the numbers that OEM really care about today because they want to make sure you have the ability to deliver. And the one evidence you can use is product [ph] shipment, and now we have it. And the other one is actually cost.
……ADAS 感測器。這是如今 OEM 真正關心的數據之一,因為他們想確保你有能力交付。一個證據就是產品出貨量,現在我們已經有了。另一個證據是成本。
And historically, for the first round of the sourcing from a few years ago from the global players, they were the smaller volume vehicles. And for that, it's probably okay it's at a relatively higher price. Now, most of them are being much more serious about rolling those configurations into more affordable price range large-volume vehicles and in which price becomes a much more critical issue.
從歷史上看,幾年前全球汽車廠商首次採購的車款都是小排氣量車款。因此,價格相對較高或許也無妨。現在,大多數廠商都更認真地考慮將這些配置融入價格較親民的大排氣量車型中,而價格則成為更關鍵的問題。
And for us, with our ability and history of developing in-house (inaudible) and in-house manufacturing, we have the best ability to do low-cost ADAS sensor at a reasonable margin. That's what they care about. That's why we have their high confidence that at least some of the deals will come to us. And hopefully, we'll be announcing that.
對我們來說,憑藉我們自主研發(聽不清楚)和自主製造的能力和歷史,我們最有能力以合理的利潤率生產低成本的ADAS感測器。這正是他們所關心的。因此,他們高度相信我們至少會獲得一些訂單。希望我們能宣布這一點。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Right. Thank you, David. Great questions, Wan Bing.
好的。謝謝你,David。萬冰,這個問題問得真好。
On the gross margin side, in 2022, our gross margins for the autonomous mobility side was over 50%. On the ADAS side, it was less than 5% because we were just ramping AT. It was only for several months. So remember the production line of the AT128 that's currently in effect has capacity for 300,000 units a year. We only manufactured 60,000 and delivered in 2022.
就毛利率而言,2022年,我們自動駕駛出行業務的毛利率超過50%。而ADAS業務的毛利率不到5%,因為我們當時才剛開始量產AT,而且只持續了幾個月。所以,請記住,目前AT128生產線的實際年產能為30萬輛。我們只生產了6萬輛,並於2022年交車。
This year for Q1 and Q2, utilization rate will not be quite as high. By Q3-Q4, it will ramp up, so we expect to ship at least 200,000 AT plus a few units this year. So it will get better with the gross margin profile.
今年第一季和第二季的使用率不會那麼高。到第三季和第四季,利用率將會上升,所以我們預計今年AT的出貨量至少有20萬台,外加一些其他產品。因此,毛利率狀況會有所改善。
So for this year, on AT, it will go up from under 5%. By the end of this year, we expect the gross margin to be in the high single-digits to low double-digits, so probably 9% to 13% as we exit this year. The long-term gross margin we expect for AT should be around 30% to a little bit over 35% as we redesign the model and as we go to mass production. Remember, in '24, we have 11 OEMs shipping in AT, so the volumes will be just that we can get the higher gross margins.
因此,今年AT的毛利率將從不到5%上升。到今年年底,我們預期毛利率將達到高個位數到低兩位數,所以今年年底大概是9%到13%之間。隨著我們重新設計車型並投入量產,我們預計AT的長期毛利率應該在30%左右到略高於35%。記住,在2024年,我們有11家原始設備製造商在AT上出貨,所以產量只是我們獲得更高毛利率的因素。
On the autonomous mobility side for 2023, this year, we are undergoing in Q2 and Q3 a price reduction on the blended basis for Pandar. So the ASP last year was about 13,000 for autonomous mobility products. This year we expect that number to be around 9,000. So because of the price cut, it will put some downward pressure on the gross margin profile for probably Q2 and Q3 of this year. So Q1 should be okay. But Q2-Q3, it will have some negative impact.
就2023年的自動駕駛出遊方面而言,今年我們將在第二季和第三季對Pandar進行綜合降價。去年自動駕駛出行產品的平均售價約為1.3萬盧比。我們預計今年這數字將在9000盧比左右。因此,降價可能會對今年第二季和第三季的毛利率造成一些下行壓力。所以第一季應該還好。但第二季和第三季可能會有一些負面影響。
And so, I wanted to also say that we are addressing this as well. So we will have a lower cost Pandar model coming out in the second half of this year. That will significantly reduce our production cost, and we'll still be able to maintain our margin at around 50% for this product at scale. So that will mean by the end of next year, the margin will bounce back.
所以,我想說,我們也在解決這個問題。我們將在今年下半年推出一款成本更低的Pandar型號。這將顯著降低我們的生產成本,並且我們仍然能夠將這款產品的利潤率維持在50%左右。這意味著到明年年底,利潤率將會反彈。
So as you asked earlier, our long-term gross margin target remains unchanged at 35% where we have autonomous mobility at between 45% and 50%, and ADAS at probably 2027 to 33% you're with the target 30% or so. That blended number should come out to 35%, so nothing has changed on the long-term perspective. But on the transition for this year, the first half will be slower. It's only the seasonal slower time for us, Q1-Q2. In Q3-Q4, the margins will begin to ramp up again.
正如您之前所問,我們的長期毛利率目標保持不變,仍為35%,其中自動駕駛汽車的毛利率在45%到50%之間,ADAS的毛利率大概在2027年達到33%,這與我們的30%左右的目標一致。綜合來看,這個數字應該會達到35%,所以長期來看沒有任何變化。但就今年的轉型而言,上半年會比較慢。對我們來說,第一季和第二季只是季節性的淡季。第三季和第四季,利潤率將再次開始上升。
That answered your question, Wan Bing?
這回答了你的問題嗎,萬冰?
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
And, sir, can I have a follow-up? I think (inaudible) quite decent in the (inaudible) for the first quarter. Can I assume (inaudible) the possibility to secure the (inaudible) 90% of (inaudible)?
先生,請問您接下來的問題是什麼?我認為(聽不清楚)第一季的(聽不清楚)表現相當不錯。我能否假設(聽不清楚)有可能確保(聽不清楚)90%的(聽不清楚)?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Sorry, I didn't hear that, repeat. Yes, repeat (inaudible).
抱歉,我沒聽清,請重複一遍。是的,請重複一遍(聽不清楚)。
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
I mean, you already keep (inaudible) for the quarter, number four quarter (inaudible). Can I assume there's a possibility to announce a global ADAS by the customer (inaudible) high?
我的意思是,您已經保持了第四季度的(聽不清楚)。我是否可以假設,有可能宣布推出一款全球性的ADAS,其客戶(聽不清楚)水準很高?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
(Inaudible) getting global ADAS announcement in the first half of ...
(聽不清楚)在上半年獲得全球 ADAS 公告...
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
First half?
上半場?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Did you mean first half of this year, Wang Bin?
王斌,您說的是今年上半年嗎?
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
No, no, no. I mean, yes or no.
不不不。我是說,是或否。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
(Inaudible).
(聽不清楚)。
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Whether this year you will announce (inaudible) from global automakers (inaudible) possibility is directly from 1% to (inaudible).
今年您是否會宣布(聽不清楚)來自全球汽車製造商(聽不清楚)的可能性是直接從 1% 到(聽不清楚)。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
(Inaudible) for this year, we have a ...
(聽不清楚)今年,我們有…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
For the year time ...
今年的時間...
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
... we have actually multiple ...
....我們其實有多個...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
... European and at least the one American major design decisions coming out by Q3 and Q4. So the chance of getting more than one, at least one, is very high.
歐洲和至少美國將在第三季和第四季公佈一項重大設計決策。因此,獲得多個(至少一項)方案的可能性非常高。
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Okay, thank you.
好的,謝謝。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
But then also, Wang Bin, I will remind our investors that the adoption for China is actually much more rapid than the U.S., right? We have 11 Chinese OEMs. The volume in China will be four or five times the volume for the U.S. and Europe in the next two or three years.
不過,王斌,我還要提醒我們的投資者,中國市場的採用速度實際上比美國快得多,對吧?我們有11家中國OEM廠商。未來兩三年,中國的銷售量將達到美國和歐洲的四到五倍。
So we went after where the market is, and the market is China today. So we went after and we have 11. We have a dominant share in China already.
所以我們瞄準了市場所在,而今天的市場就是中國。我們瞄準了中國,目前我們擁有11家門市。我們在中國市場已經佔據了主導地位。
On the global side, the game is just beginning in '23 for the volume production in '26'-27. So we are fighting and we are in the game, but the results won't come out until second half of this year. Okay.
就全球而言,2023年才剛開始,2026-2027年才開始量產。所以我們正在努力,但結果要到今年下半年才能揭曉。好的。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
And also the actual shipment will only ...
而且實際出貨量只會...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Starting (inaudible) and 20.
開始(聽不清楚)和 20。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Yes, as ...
是的,因為...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
... early as '26.
……早在 26 年。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes. So for the next two years, it's more important to focus on our China deliveries because that's where the revenue drivers and that's where the knowhow and the production will come from. And that's where the margin will come from. So that's why you can see. The reason is we completely dominate our global peers is because they have no volume in production. So we're larger than all eight combined because we are winning China, where that's where the ball game is. You could only play where there's a game. And the game for North America and Europe really won't be (inaudible) if you start scoring in '26 and '27. Okay.
是的。所以在接下來的兩年裡,更重要的是專注於我們的中國交付,因為這是收入驅動力所在,也是技術和生產的來源,也是利潤的來源。這就是你能看到的原因。我們之所以完全領先全球同行,是因為他們沒有產量。所以我們的規模比這八家公司的總和還要大,因為我們贏了中國市場,而中國市場才是真正的戰場。你只能在有比賽的地方比賽。如果你在26年和27年就開始得分,那麼北美和歐洲的比賽就真的不會(聽不清楚)了。好的。
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Bin Wang - Securities Research Analyst
Thank you so much.
太感謝了。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Thank you, Wan Bing. Next question please.
謝謝萬冰。請問下一個問題。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Paul Gong from UBS. Please go ahead.
謝謝。 (操作員指示)您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的Paul Gong。請繼續。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Yes, hi. Thanks, management, for taking my questions. I have two questions. The first one is you mentioned that the mechanical LiDAR has more than 50% gross margin, while the ADAS LiDAR has less than 5% gross margin in 2022.
是的,你好。謝謝管理層回答我的問題。我有兩個問題。第一個問題是,你提到機械雷射雷達的毛利率超過50%,而ADAS雷射雷達在2022年的毛利率不到5%。
So from the revenue of the Q4, is that fair to assume the revenue mix or revenue split is roughly (inaudible) 50-50 between the robotaxi LiDAR and ADAS LiDAR? Is that a fair estimate of the revenue split?
那麼,從第四季度的收入來看,是否可以合理地假設自動駕駛出租車雷射雷達和ADAS雷射雷達的收入組成或收入分配大致(聽不清楚)各佔一半?這是對所得分配的合理估計嗎?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
For Q4, that's pretty close. For the whole year, ADAS is 25% and autonomous mobility was the other 75%. So going forward, which is now in '23, ADAS should be 40% to 45% of revenue in this year. But as I said earlier, the bulk of the units will come in Q3 and Q4 as new models are released. So that's the seasonal factor of our business is that Q3-Q4 typically are much larger quarters in Q1-Q2. So Q1, the reason the gross margin will be better is because there are more autonomous mobility shipments in Q1. Okay.
就第四季而言,這個數字相當接近。全年來看,ADAS 佔 25%,自動駕駛佔 75%。所以展望未來,也就是 2023 年,ADAS 應該會佔今年總收入的 40% 到 45%。但正如我之前所說,大部分出貨量將在第三季和第四季隨著新車型的發布而增加。所以,我們業務的季節性因素是,第三季和第四季的出貨量通常比第一季和第二季大得多。所以,第一季毛利率會更高,是因為第一季自動駕駛出行的出貨量較多。好的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
And the other quick point I want to make on the ...
我想簡單說一下...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Okay.
好的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... gross margin side is it's true that last year the ADAS gross margin wasn't as (inaudible) to be ...
…… 毛利率方面,去年 ADAS 的毛利率確實沒有那麼高(聽不清楚)...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... but remember that this is the first time we're shipping a larger volume ADAS ...
……但請記住,這是我們第一次運送大批量的 ADAS...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Right.
正確的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... right? And then if you compare that number to all the peers, that's still not crazily bad ...
……對吧?然後如果你把這個數字和所有同行比較一下,你會發現這還不算太糟…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... considering most of the people are having ...
....考慮到大多數人都有...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... really minus gross margins.
... 確實是負毛利率。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
And, Paul, I'll give you are stats so you understand how fast we are working on the cost side. The average COGS for AT in 2022 was $700. The average COGS today is under $500, okay.
保羅,我給你一些數據,這樣你就能了解我們在成本上的進展有多快。 AT 2022 年的平均銷售成本(COGS)是 700 美元。現在的平均銷售成本(COGS)不到 500 美元,好嗎?
So as ASP come down because we have a contract, the cost is also coming down commensurately, if not faster, but there's a transition period, right? It's another quarter or two to ramp-up the new production line in Hangzhou for the new AT. That has significant price reduction versus the current version that is in Shanghai. And that's why there's a slight lag in the gross margin profile as a new line comes up, and then it needs to scale.
所以,由於我們簽訂了合同,平均售價會下降,成本也會相應下降,甚至下降得更快,但總有一個過渡期,對吧?杭州的新生產線還需要一、兩個季度才能投產,用於生產新款AT。與目前上海生產的版本相比,這款車型的價格大幅下降。這就是為什麼新生產線投產後,毛利率會略有滯後,之後還需要擴大規模。
But I think this is the right decision for us. We invest this year, and '24 should be a blockbuster year for us in terms of the deliveries, right? I mean, we expect to be delivering 600,000 to 800,000, even maybe close to 1 million units in '24 when our competitors aren't even at 50,000 yet. So we're basically trying to extend our reach and (inaudible) manufacturing.
但我認為這對我們來說是正確的決定。我們今年進行了投資,2024年對我們來說應該是交付量大爆發的一年,對吧?我的意思是,我們預計2024年的交付量將達到60萬到80萬台,甚至可能接近100萬台,而我們的競爭對手的交付量甚至還不到5萬台。所以我們基本上是在努力擴大我們的覆蓋範圍和(聽不清楚)製造能力。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Understood, understood. So just to double-check, you said for the full year this year, the ADAS LiDAR is going to contribute roughly 40% to 45% on you. Is that right?
明白了,明白了。所以再確認一下,您之前說過,今年全年 ADAS LiDAR 的貢獻率大約是 40% 到 45%。對嗎?
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Correct, correct, about $115 million to $120 million, yes.
正確,正確,大約 1.15 億到 1.2 億美元,是的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Okay. And the long-term margin for the robotaxi LiDAR is 45% to 50%, and (inaudible) target for the ADAS LiDAR margin is 25% to 30%, right. These are the right numbers to (inaudible) ...
好的。自動駕駛計程車雷射雷達的長期利潤率是45%到50%,(聽不清楚)ADAS雷射雷達的目標利潤率是25%到30%,對吧。這些是正確的數字(聽不清楚)…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... right.
... 正確的。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
That's (inaudible) for us.
這對我們來說(聽不清楚)。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Okay, okay.
好的,好的。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes, that's correct.
是的,正確。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
(Inaudible) so ADAS is growing faster. It'll be (inaudible) by 35% target.
(聽不清楚)所以ADAS成長更快。目標是(聽不清楚)35%。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Understood, understood. My second question is regarding the Q1 guidance. I understand right now the ADAS LiDAR (inaudible) the (inaudible). I think the auto (inaudible) is somewhere like 10% to 20% quarter over quarter (inaudible) more than gross in Q1 versus Q4 or even though maybe ...
明白了,明白了。我的第二個問題是關於第一季的業績指引。我目前了解到ADAS雷射雷達(聽不清楚)。我認為自動駕駛(聽不清楚)的環比增長大約是10%到20%(聽不清楚),第一季與第四季相比,或者即使可能…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Right.
正確的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... the mix is going to be more (inaudible) towards L8 instead of L9. So that basically means the Q1 versus Q4, your guidance is also flattish. That basically means flattish in both the ADAS LiDAR, as well as the robotaxi LiDAR. That's the right way to understand, yes.
……混合比將更(聽不清楚)偏向 L8 而不是 L9。所以這基本上意味著第一季與第四季相比,您的預測也比較穩定。這基本上意味著 ADAS 光達和 Robotaxi 光達的預測都比較平穩。是的,這是正確的理解方式。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes. To be honest, that's not entirely correct for us. So you didn't know, in Q4, we have higher pricing for ADAS LiDAR, so we ship more units. So that's why we shipped 20,000 units in December. So Q1, there'll be a slight slowdown in ADAS for January/February as those December units are used up. In March, we'll pick up again.
是的。說實話,這對我們來說並不完全正確。所以你不知道,在第四季度,我們的ADAS雷射雷達價格上漲,所以我們的出貨量增加了。這就是為什麼我們在12月出貨了2萬台。所以第一季度,由於12月的出貨量已經用完了,1月/2月的ADAS出貨量會稍微放緩。到3月,我們的出貨量會再回升。
So I would expect my current forecast is only about 30,000 ADAS units in Q1. Robotaxi will have a very strong Q1. And that's why you see the guidance where it is.
因此,我目前的預測是,第一季的ADAS銷售量只有3萬台左右。 Robotaxi第一季的業績將非常強勁。這就是你看到其業績指引的原因。
You say it's flattish over Q4, but you have to remember Q1 is seasonally our slowest quarter because Chinese New Year, and also there's usually a lag effect. Q4 is the biggest quarter. Q1 and Q2 are slower. So for us to be flattish over Q4 is quite an accomplishment. It's over 60% year-over-year growth.
你說第四季業績持平,但你必須記住,第一季是我們季節性最慢的一個季度,因為春節,而且通常會出現滯後效應。第四季是業績最大的一個季度。第一季和第二季業績較慢。所以對我們來說,第四季業績持平已經是一個相當大的成就了。年成長超過60%。
And, Paul, you've known me for four years, five. You know, I guide conservatively.
保羅,你認識我四、五年了。你知道,我的指導很保守。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Understood, understood. And ...
明白了,明白了。而且…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
So it could be the first time, it could be we will have a record quarter, the biggest quarter of our history.
因此,這可能是我們第一次、也可能是我們歷史上創紀錄的一個季度,也是我們史上最大的季度。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Understand. So do you feel that the mix is going to be most (inaudible) towards the robotaxi or LiDAR in Q1. That also means that ...
明白。那麼您認為第一季的市場格局將主要(聽不清楚)偏向自動駕駛計程車還是雷射雷達?這也意味著…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Only in Q1, yes.
是的,僅在第一季。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Yes, that also means the margin profile ...
是的,這也意味著利潤率概況…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Only in Q1.
僅在第一季。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... would be even better than Q4.
……甚至會比第四季更好。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes, and that's what I told you earlier. I said that already.
是的,我之前就跟你說過。我已經說過了。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Okay.
好的。
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
So ...
所以 ...
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Okay, so ...
好的,那麼...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
... (inaudible) Q2, but in Q2 ADAS takes over. And Q2 is when a price reduction in the robotaxi LiDAR takes effect. So Q2 then will have a negative impact on the gross margin because the highest gross margin product is taking a price cut before the new design goes into effect in Q4. So there's a two-quarter impact on the gross margin for the robotaxi because of a price decrease where the reduced price model, cost model won't come in until Q4. So that's why I'm letting you guys know ahead of time so you properly model this. It's a short-term blip, but it's important that we don't mislead you.
……(聽不清楚)第二季度,但在第二季度,ADAS 佔據了主導地位。而第二季則是自動駕駛計程車雷射雷達降價生效的時候。因此,第二季將對毛利率產生負面影響,因為毛利率最高的產品在第四季新設計生效之前就降價了。因此,由於降價,自動駕駛計程車的毛利率將受到兩個季度的影響,而降價模型和成本模型要到第四季才會生效。所以我提前通知大家,以便你們可以正確地建模。這只是一個短期波動,但重要的是,我們不要誤導你們。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Yes, that's very responsible ...
是的,這是非常負責任的...
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Okay.
好的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... and very transparent guidance. Thank you so much ...
……而且指導非常透明。非常感謝…
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Yes.
是的。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
... for the color and ...
... 顏色和...
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
Louis Hsieh - Global CFO
So that, you know me, I tell you straight, good or bad.
這樣,你就會認識我,我會直接告訴你好或壞。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Okay, okay. Thank you so much.
好的,好的。非常感謝。
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
David Li - Co-Founder & CEO
Thank you, Paul.
謝謝你,保羅。
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
Paul Gong - Equity Research Analyst
That is very helpful. Yes, thank you.
這很有幫助。是的,謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We'll now pool the moment to allow for any final register.
謝謝。 (操作員指示)我們現在將集中時間進行最後的登記。
As there are no further questions now, I would like to turn the call back over to the company for closing remarks.
由於現在沒有其他問題,我想將電話轉回給公司進行結束語。
Rachel Yang - V.P., Operations
Rachel Yang - V.P., Operations
Okay. Thank you once again for joining us today. If you have further questions, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations through the contact information provided (inaudible) financial communication. Thank you.
好的。再次感謝您今天的參與。如果您還有其他問題,請隨時透過財務溝通提供的聯絡方式聯絡我們的投資者關係部。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your line. Thank you.
謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛斷電話了。謝謝。