希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Hilton Worldwide Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加希爾頓全球 2017 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

這次，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Jill Slattery。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Denise.

謝謝你，丹妮絲。

Welcome to Hilton's Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2017 年第二季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the risk factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

Unless otherwise noted, comparisons to the company's second quarter 2016 results assume that the spinoff transactions had occurred on January 1, 2016.

除非另有說明，否則與本公司 2016 年第二季業績的比較均假設分拆交易發生於 2016 年 1 月 1 日。

Please see our earnings release for additional details.

請參閱我們的收益發布以了解更多詳細資訊。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our second quarter results and provide an update on our expectations for the year.

我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將回顧我們第二季度的業績，並提供我們對今年預期的最新資訊。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安。

We're pleased to report our second quarter as the new Hilton, and I think our results continue to demonstrate the strength our fee-driven business model.

我們很高興地報告我們的第二季度是新的希爾頓，我認為我們的業績繼續證明了我們的收費驅動型業務模式的實力。

It starts with the best-performing portfolio of brands in the business, which are driving record organic unit growth with minimal investment.

它從行業中表現最好的品牌組合開始，這些品牌以最少的投資推動了創紀錄的有機單位成長。

Add to that, solid same-store growth driven by positive industry fundamentals, and you end up with significant and growing free cash flow, all of which we intend to return to shareholders.

除此之外，積極的行業基本面推動了同店的穩健增長，最終您將獲得大量且不斷增長的自由現金流，所有這些我們都打算回報給股東。

Turning specifically to results.

具體轉向成果。

We reported adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS above the high end of our guidance for the second quarter, and we're also raising our expectations for the full year, including our outlook for capital return.

我們報告的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股收益高於我們第二季度指引的上限，我們也提高了對全年的預期，包括對資本回報的展望。

We now expect to return $1 billion to $1.1 billion to shareholders this year or over 5% of our market cap.

我們現在預計今年將向股東返還 10 億至 11 億美元，或超過我們市值的 5%。

Our RevPAR index premium increased 60 basis points in the quarter, with positive growth in every brand segment and in every region.

本季我們的 RevPAR 指數溢價增加了 60 個基點，每個品牌細分市場和每個地區都實現了正向成長。

Top line results in the quarter were generally as expected, with system-wide RevPAR growth of 1.8%.

本季的營收結果大致符合預期，全系統 RevPAR 成長 1.8%。

Netting the benefit of July 4 and the downward pressure from Easter, calendar shifts weighed on results by approximately 70 basis points.

考慮到 7 月 4 日的好處和復活節帶來的下行壓力，日曆變化對業績造成約 70 個基點的壓力。

When you boil it all down, system-wide, year-to-date transient and group growth have generally been consistent with our expectations, with business transient and group towards the midpoint of our guidance range and leisure transient a bit above the high end.

當你把一切歸結起來時，整個系統範圍內的、年初至今的瞬態和團體增長總體上符合我們的預期，商務瞬態和團體接近我們指導範圍的中點，而休閒瞬態略高於高端。

Looking forward, expectations for macro indicators, such as GDP growth and nonresidential fixed investment growth suggest continued improvement.

展望未來，GDP成長和非住宅固定投資成長等宏觀指標預期持續改善。

But so far, we have not seen that translate into increased demand.

但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到這轉化為需求的增加。

As a result, our forecast would suggest the midpoint of our RevPAR range for the full year.

因此，我們的預測將顯示全年 RevPAR 範圍的中點。

On unit growth, we continue to drive a disproportionate share of global development to our system.

在單位成長方面，我們繼續為我們的系統帶來不成比例的全球發展份額。

Nearly 1 in every 4 rooms under construction around the world are slated to be added to our system, and we continue to have more rooms under construction in Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific than anyone.

全球每 4 個在建客房中就有近 1 個將被添加到我們的系統中，而且我們在歐洲、中東和亞太地區的在建客房數量仍然比任何國家都多。

In the second quarter, we opened more than 13,000 net management franchise rooms and remain on track to deliver roughly 6.5% net unit growth for the full year.

第二季度，我們開設了超過 13,000 間淨管理特許經營客房，並預計全年約 6.5% 的淨單位成長。

We also approved over 27,000 rooms in the quarter, well on our way to achieving more than 100,000 rooms approved for the full year.

我們還在本季度批准了超過 27,000 間客房，全年批准的客房數量預計將超過 100,000 間。

Our pipeline totals over 330,000 rooms, up roughly 15% year-over-year and represents more than 40% of our existing supply.

我們的待售客房總數超過 33 萬間，年增約 15%，占我們現有供應量的 40% 以上。

With over half of our pipeline under construction, we have good visibility into unit growth over the next several years.

我們一半以上的管道正在建設中，因此我們對未來幾年的單位成長有很好的了解。

We continue to make great progress on our luxury development strategy.

我們的奢侈品發展策略持續取得重大進展。

We had a very positive response to the Waldorf Astoria Beverly Hills opening just last month.

比佛利山華爾道夫酒店上個月剛開業，我們得到了非常積極的反響。

This opening marks Waldorf Astoria's West Coast expansion, offering global travelers a new standard of luxury in one of California's most prestigious zip codes.

此次開幕標誌著華爾道夫酒店在西海岸的擴張，為全球遊客在加州最負盛名的郵遞區號之一提供新的奢華標準。

We expect this spectacular property, along with other recent openings like the Conrad Osaka, the Conrad Guangzhou, the Conrad San Luis Potosi and an upcoming opening like the Conrad Fort Lauderdale, the Waldorf Astoria Chengdu and a soon-to-be-announced luxury hotel in Midtown Manhattan, to drive a nearly 15% increase in our luxury distribution in this year alone.

我們期待這座壯觀的酒店，以及其他最近開業的酒店，如大阪康萊德酒店、廣州康萊德酒店、聖路易斯波托西康萊德酒店，以及即將開業的勞德代爾堡康萊德酒店、成都華爾道夫酒店和即將宣布的豪華酒店僅今年一年，我們的奢侈品分銷就增長了近 15%。

We expect to continue seeing double-digit luxury growth for the next several years.

我們預計未來幾年奢侈品將繼續實現兩位數成長。

Our newest brands also continue to perform very well.

我們的最新品牌也持續表現出色。

Home2 Suite celebrated its 150th opening in the second quarter, with its 200th opening expected by year-end.

Home2 Suite 在第二季度迎來了第 150 家開業，預計到年底將迎來第 200 家開業。

With nearly 400 hotels in the pipeline, Home2 continues to have the largest pipeline of any suites brand.

Home2 擁有近 400 家正在籌建中的飯店，是所有套房品牌中擁有最多籌建飯店的。

Guests love Home2's product and service offering, and owners love its performance.

客人喜歡 Home2 的產品和服務，業主也喜歡其性能。

In the quarter, the brand increased its RevPAR index by over 500 basis points.

本季度，該品牌將其 RevPAR 指數提高了 500 多個基點。

And Home2, barely 6 years since launch, already runs RevPAR premiums well above our system average.

Home2 推出僅 6 年，其 RevPAR 溢價已遠高於我們的系統平均值。

Tru by Hilton opened its first 3 hotels in the second quarter, with the first marking our 5,000th hotel.

Tru by Hilton 在第二季開設了前 3 家飯店，第一家標誌著我們的第 5,000 家飯店。

By year-end, we expect to have 10 Tru Hotels open, with construction starts on an incremental 5,000 Tru rooms.

到年底，我們預計將有 10 間 Tru Hotels 開業，並開始建造 5,000 間 Tru 客房。

We believe that Tru will attract new customers into our system and enable us to enter new markets.

我們相信 Tru 將吸引新客戶進入我們的系統，並使我們能夠進入新市場。

To date, nearly 1 in 5 of our signed Tru deals are in cities where our current brands are not present.

到目前為止，我們簽署的 Tru 交易中有近五分之一是在我們現有品牌尚未出現的城市。

In the quarter, Tapestry Collection opened its first property, the Hotel Skyler.

在本季度，Tapestry Collection 開設了第一家酒店——斯凱勒酒店 (Hotel Skyler)。

This unique eco- friendly hotel is a former temple located in the heart of Syracuse, New York and is only 1 of 11 lead platinum-certified hotels in the world.

這家獨特的生態友善飯店位於紐約州錫拉丘茲市中心，前身是一座寺廟，是全球 11 家獲得白金認證的飯店之一。

The property perfectly illustrates the spirit of our collection brands, which allows hotels to maintain their unique identity while benefiting from the strength of our commercial engines.

這家酒店完美地詮釋了我們系列品牌的精神，使酒店能夠保持其獨特的身份，同時受益於我們商業引擎的實力。

Both of our Collection brands, Curio and now Tapestry, continue to gain momentum across the U.S. and globally.

我們的兩個系列品牌 Curio 和現在的 Tapestry 繼續在美國和全球保持強勁勢頭。

With nearly 150 hotels opened and in development, we are quickly growing our system without increasing overall industry supply.

隨著近 150 家酒店的開業和開發，我們正在快速發展我們的系統，而無需增加整個行業的供應。

Curio celebrated some important developments over the last few months, including debuting properties in China, France and Italy.

Curio 慶祝了過去幾個月的一些重要發展，包括在中國、法國和義大利的首次亮相。

We also welcome the world-renowned Hotel del Coronado to our Curio collection.

我們也歡迎世界知名的科羅納多飯店 (Hotel del Coronado) 加入我們的 Curio 系列。

This iconic 130-year-old property is a great addition to our growing portfolio of unique hotels and resorts.

這家具有 130 年歷史的標誌性酒店是我們不斷增長的獨特酒店和度假村組合的重要補充。

We look forward to unveiling additional Collection properties in Costa Rica, the Florida Keys, Paris and London later this year.

我們期待今年稍後在哥斯達黎加、佛羅裡達群島、巴黎和倫敦推出更多 Collection 房產。

On the innovation front, we've begun deploying our industry-leading digital key outside the United States and remain on track to have over 2,500 hotels or nearly half our system equipped with this guest-centric capability by year-end.

在創新方面，我們已開始在美國境外部署業界領先的數位鑰匙，並預計在年底前讓超過 2,500 家飯店（即我們近一半的系統）配備這種以賓客為中心的功能。

Hilton Honors members continue to set new records for usage and engagement through our app, with over 3.5 million digital check-ins and nearly 1 million room keys downloaded in the quarter alone.

希爾頓榮譽客會會員透過我們的應用程式繼續創造使用和參與的新記錄，僅在本季度就有超過 350 萬次數位登記和近 100 萬張房間鑰匙下載。

Guests love the choice and control that the Honors app enables as seen in guest satisfaction scores that increased, on average, 400 basis points when guests use our digital key.

賓客非常喜歡 Honors 應用程式提供的選擇和控制功能，從賓客滿意度評分中可以看出，當賓客使用我們的數位鑰匙時，賓客滿意度平均提高了 400 個基點。

Innovations like the Hilton Honors app continue to drive growth in Honors.

希爾頓榮譽客會應用程式等創新繼續推動榮譽客會的成長。

Year-to-date, 5.5 million people have joined the club, a 20% increase year-over-year, and we had our 1st month with over 1 million enrollments in the quarter.

年初至今，該俱樂部已有 550 萬人加入，年增 20%，本季第一個月註冊人數超過 100 萬人。

Hilton Honors occupancy increased 170 basis points versus the prior year, while paid member folio rose 9% year-over-year to $5 billion in the quarter, a system record.

希爾頓榮譽客會入住率較上年增長 170 個基點，而付費會員帳戶本季年增 9% 至 50 億美元，創下系統記錄。

With the most guest-centric loyalty program and the efficiency of our web direct channels, guests benefit from greater personalization and more choice and control and best value.

憑藉最以客人為中心的忠誠度計劃以及我們網路直接管道的效率，客人可以受益於更大的個人化、更多的選擇和控制以及最佳價值。

At the same time, owners benefit from lower distribution costs and continued increases in system RevPAR premiums.

同時，業主受益於較低的分銷成本和系統 RevPAR 保費的持續成長。

To further Hilton Honors' ability to drive demand to our system, we recently announced our partnership with American Express, which we believe is a big win for both companies and for all stakeholders.

為了進一步增強希爾頓榮譽客會推動系統需求的能力，我們最近宣布與美國運通建立合作夥伴關係，我們相信這對兩家公司和所有利益相關者來說都是一場巨大的勝利。

Effective January next year, Amex will launch and aggressively market a refreshed portfolio of Hilton Honors credit cards in the United States that will help grow our Hilton Honors membership and deepen member engagement.

自明年 1 月起，美國運通將在美國推出並積極行銷更新的希爾頓榮譽客會信用卡組合，這將有助於擴大我們的希爾頓榮譽客會會員資格並加深會員參與度。

We will also have the opportunity to grow transient and group market share at favorable economics through American Express and its travel assets as well as provide owners a meaningful reduction in merchant fees.

我們也將有機會透過美國運通及其旅行資產在有利的經濟條件下擴大臨時和團體市場份額，並為業主提供有意義的商家費用降低。

For Hilton, the growth of card spend in this partnership should benefit license fee growth.

對希爾頓來說，這種合作關係中信用卡支出的成長應該有利於許可費的成長。

We expect all license fees, including co-brand and HGV, as a percentage of total fees to be around 11% this year.

我們預計今年所有授權費用（包括聯合品牌和 HGV）佔總費用的百分比約為 11%。

And we'd expected for that to go up around 200 basis points in 2018 and grow in line to above core fee growth going forward.

我們預計 2018 年該費用將上漲約 200 個基點，並與未來核心費用成長持平。

Lastly, I'd like to share some recent news that we're very proud of and to the thank many of our team members whose efforts led to these achievements.

最後，我想分享一些我們感到非常自豪的最新消息，並感謝許多團隊成員的努力帶來了這些成就。

Hilton was named the #1 military friendly company for 2017 by both G.I. Jobs and Military Spouse magazines.

希爾頓被 G.I. 和 G.I. 評為 2017 年排名第一的軍事友好型公司工作和軍人配偶雜誌。

We owe this honor in large part to our commitment to Operation: Opportunity.

我們獲得這項榮譽在很大程度上歸功於我們對「機會行動」的承諾。

Through this initiative, we've hired more than 10,000 veterans and spouses over the last 4 years, and we just recently have committed to hiring another 20,000 by the end of 2020.

透過這項舉措，我們在過去 4 年裡僱用了超過 10,000 名退伍軍人及其配偶，最近我們剛剛承諾在 2020 年底之前再僱用 20,000 名。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin for further details on the results and our outlook.

這樣，我將把電話轉給凱文，以獲取有關結果和我們的前景的更多詳細資訊。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

For the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 1.8% versus the prior year on a currency-neutral basis due to strong leisure demand and international results.

由於強勁的休閒需求和國際業績，本季全系統的 RevPAR 在貨幣中性的基礎上比上年增長了 1.8%。

Year-to-date, which largely neutralizes for holiday shifts, RevPAR growth is up 2.4% versus the prior year period.

今年迄今為止，RevPAR 成長率較去年同期成長了 2.4%，這在很大程度上抵消了假期班次的影響。

Adjusted EBITDA of $519 million exceeded the high end of our guidance range by $9 million, largely driven by better-than-expected fee growth and outperformance in owned and leased hotels.

調整後 EBITDA 為 5.19 億美元，比我們指導範圍的上限高出 900 萬美元，這主要是由於好於預期的費用增長以及自有和租賃酒店的出色表現。

Diluted earnings per share, adjusted for special items, was $0.52, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and increasing 30% year-over-year on a pro forma basis.

經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.52 美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，預計將年增 30%。

In the quarter, management franchise fees grew nearly 11% versus the prior year to $513 million, well ahead of our 7% to 9% guidance range.

本季度，管理特許經營費較上年增長近 11%，達到 5.13 億美元，遠高於我們 7% 至 9% 的指導範圍。

In addition to timing-related items, greater license and incentive management fees drove outperformance in the fee segment, while transient occupancy gains in London and rate gains in Japan led to solid results in our owned and leased portfolio.

除了與時間相關的項目外，更高的許可費和激勵管理費推動了收費領域的優異表現，而倫敦的短暫入住率增長和日本的利率增長為我們自有和租賃的投資組合帶來了堅實的業績。

Turning to our regional performance and outlook.

轉向我們的區域業績和前景。

We believe our broad geographic diversity continues to lower the effects of volatility in individual markets.

我們相信，我們廣泛的地域多樣性將繼續降低個別市場波動的影響。

In the U.S., comparable RevPAR increased 50 basis points driven by good leisure transient trends and somewhat offset by softer group performance due to the Easter shift.

在美國，受良好的休閒短暫趨勢的推動，可比每間客房收入增長了 50 個基點，但在一定程度上被復活節轉變導致的集團業績疲軟所抵消。

Additionally, weakness in oil and gas markets pressured results in the quarter.

此外，石油和天然氣市場的疲軟給本季的業績帶來壓力。

For full year 2017, we continue to forecast U.S. RevPAR growth towards the lower half of our 1% to 3% system-wide range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們繼續預測美國 RevPAR 成長將接近系統範圍 1% 至 3% 的下半部。

In the Americas outside the U.S., second quarter RevPAR grew a solid 6.5% versus the prior year due to strength in Mexico and Canada, which was driven by strong transient demand in both regions.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第二季每間可用客房營收較上年同期穩定成長 6.5%，這得益於墨西哥和加拿大的強勁成長，而這兩個地區的短暫需求強勁。

Leisure transient in particular saw double-digit RevPAR growth across the region.

該地區的休閒瞬態尤其實現了兩位數的 RevPAR 成長。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region at the higher end of our guidance range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到我們指導範圍的高端。

RevPAR in Europe also grew 6.5% in the quarter, ahead of expectations due to transient strength in London and Continental Europe, namely The Netherlands, Germany and Spain.

由於倫敦和歐洲大陸（即荷蘭、德國和西班牙）的短暫強勁，歐洲的每間可用客房收入本季也成長了 6.5%，超出預期。

Additionally, international inbound to the U.K. was up nearly 14% in the second quarter, helped by favorable exchange rates.

此外，由於有利的匯率，第二季英國的國際入境遊客量增加了近 14%。

Given the beat, coupled with raised expectations for the balance of the year, we expect full year 2017 RevPAR growth in the region to be in the mid-single digits.

鑑於這一節拍，加上對今年餘下時間的預期上調，我們預計該地區 2017 年全年 RevPAR 成長將達到中個位數。

In Middle East and Africa, robust second quarter RevPAR growth of 10% benefited from stronger leisure volume, largely due to holiday shifts, which should reverse in the third quarter.

在中東和非洲，第二季度每間可用房收入(RevPAR) 實現10% 的強勁增長，這得益於休閒量的增加，這主要是由於假期的變化，這種情況應該會在第三季度出現逆轉。

We saw good group performance in Saudi Arabia, transient strength in the UAE and improving leisure business in Egypt.

我們看到沙烏地阿拉伯的集團表現良好，阿聯酋的短暫實力以及埃及休閒業務的改善。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region of flat to slightly positive.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長將持平至小幅成長。

In the Asia Pacific region, RevPAR increased 7% in the quarter, led by strength in Japan and China.

在亞太地區，本季每間可用收入成長了 7%，其中日本和中國表現強勁。

RevPAR in China was boosted by stronger transient volume at both established and maturing assets.

中國每間可用的客房收入因成熟資產和到期資產的臨時交易量增加而得到提振。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth for the region to be mid-single digits, with RevPAR in China up in the 8% to 9% range.

2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到中個位數，其中中國的 RevPAR 將成長 8% 至 9%。

Moving on to capital return.

轉向資本回報。

We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the quarter for a total of $98 million in dividends paid year-to-date.

本季我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股息，今年迄今支付的股息總額為 9,800 萬美元。

Our board also authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share for the third quarter.

我們的董事會也批准第三季每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

As Chris mentioned, we now expect to return between $1 billion and $1.1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends this year.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們現在預計今年將透過回購和股息向股東回報 10 億至 11 億美元。

Since initiating buybacks in March, we have bought $425 million of shares through July and expect to buy a similar incremental amount by year-end.

自 3 月開始回購以來，截至 7 月我們已購買了 4.25 億美元的股票，預計到年底將增加類似數量的股票。

With the resiliency of our business model, a point of RevPAR growth is about a point of adjusted EBITDA growth, making it largely immaterial to our capital return potential.

由於我們業務模式的彈性，RevPAR 成長點大約是調整後 EBITDA 成長點，這對我們的資本回報潛力來說基本上不重要。

For the third quarter of 2017, as expected, an unfavorable calendar shift in the days of week for July fourth and the timing of the Jewish holidays, which fell on the fourth quarter last year, should result in system-wide RevPAR growth of 0% to 2%.

正如預期的那樣，2017 年第三季度，7 月 4 日的星期幾以及去年第四季度的猶太假期時間安排不利，應會導致全系統 RevPAR 增長 0%至 2%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $490 million to $510 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.47 to $0.51.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.9 億至 5.1 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.47 至 0.51 美元。

We are maintaining our full year 2017 RevPAR growth guidance of 1% to 3%.

我們維持 2017 年全年 RevPAR 成長指引 1% 至 3%。

As Chris mentioned, we expect full year growth towards the midpoint of the range.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們預計全年成長將達到區間的中點。

We are raising our adjusted EBITDA outlook by $20 million to $1.9 billion at the midpoint.

我們將調整後 EBITDA 前景中位數上調 2,000 萬美元，達到 19 億美元。

Even with relatively modest same-store RevPAR growth, we expect to grow 2017 adjusted EBITDA by 7% to 9%, or roughly 4x the midpoint of our RevPAR guidance, demonstrating the strength of our fee-based business model.

即使同店 RevPAR 成長相對溫和，我們預期 2017 年調整後 EBITDA 仍將成長 7% 至 9%，約為 RevPAR 指引中點的 4 倍，這證明了我們收費業務模式的優勢。

We are raising diluted EPS adjusted for special items to $1.78 to $1.85.

我們將特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益提高至 1.78 美元至 1.85 美元。

Please do note that our full year EPS range does not incorporate incremental share repurchases.

請注意，我們的全年每股盈餘範圍不包含增量股票回購。

Further details on our second quarter results as well as our latest guidance ranges can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第二季度業績以及最新指導範圍的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

Lastly, we were recently added to the S&P 500, an index widely regarded as the best gauge for high-quality, large-cap U.S. equities.

最後，我們最近被納入標準普爾 500 指數，該指數被廣泛認為是衡量高品質、大盤美國股票的最佳指標。

We view this as a great milestone for our company and are proud to be part of this prestigious group of companies.

我們認為這是我們公司的一個重要里程碑，並很自豪能夠成為這個享有盛譽的公司集團的一員。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Denise, can we have our first question please?

（操作員指示）丹尼斯，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question will be from Harry Curtis of Nomura Instinet.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Harry Curtis。

Chris, based on your relationships at the highest levels with your key customers, what are the economic and political tea leaves that they need to see before dialing up spending on transient travel?

克里斯，根據您與主要客戶最高層的關係，他們在增加短期旅行支出之前需要考慮哪些經濟和政治問題？

That's the $64,000 question, a good one.

這是一個價值 64,000 美元的問題，一個很好的問題。

I'd say -- and I've been talking to a lot of our corporate customers actually in the last couple of months, and I would say people are sort of cautiously optimistic in the sense that they see the economy as continuing to show decent resiliency, obviously, positive growth.

我想說的是，在過去的幾個月裡，我實際上一直在與我們的許多企業客戶交談，我想說的是，人們在某種程度上持謹慎樂觀的態度，因為他們認為經濟持續表現良好彈性，顯然是正面的成長。

I think everybody would like to see a little bit more clarity on public policy on some of the things that they care about the most to unleash a little bit more optimism in the hiring, spending and consequently, demand for hotel room nights.

我認為每個人都希望看到他們最關心的一些事情的公共政策更加清晰，從而在招聘、支出以及隨後的酒店客房需求方面釋放更多樂觀情緒。

I think this -- probably, the single biggest thing that might help change the psychology with our corporate customers is some positive movement in the area of tax reform.

我認為，可能有助於改變我們企業客戶心理的最重要的事情是稅務改革領域的一些積極舉措。

I mean, there's a whole bunch of stuff going on politically right now and legislatively, all of which can matter.

我的意思是，現在政治和立法正在發生一大堆事情，所有這些都可能很重要。

Regulatory change certainly could matter.

監管變化肯定很重要。

But I think tax reform is probably, singly, the thing that I hear about most from people, simply because I think people have wanted it in a long time.

但我認為稅收改革可能是我從人們那裡聽到最多的事情，只是因為我認為人們長期以來一直想要它。

The impact of it would be positive in the sense of driving more free cash flow into people's businesses so they'd have more to play with, to hire and invest.

從推動更多自由現金流進入人們的企業的意義上來說，它的影響將是積極的，這樣他們就有更多的機會可以玩、僱用和投資。

And so I'd say -- I would say probably that, although not only that.

所以我想說——我可能會這麼說，儘管不僅如此。

But generally, as I talk to corporate customers as we think about the rest of this year and particularly, into next year, as I said, they're sort of cautiously optimistic.

但總的來說，正如我所說，當我與企業客戶交談時，我們會考慮今年剩餘時間，特別是明年，他們持謹慎樂觀的態度。

I'd say their attitude has been business is pretty good, growth is okay, we'd like it to be better.

我想說他們的態度是業務非常好，成長還可以，我們希望它變得更好。

As they think about going into next year with their travel spend, I think people generally view that their budgets are going to be going up.

當他們考慮明年的旅行支出時，我認為人們普遍認為他們的預算將會增加。

I think probably, using the U.S. as the surrogate for the moment, probably volumes that are relatively stable with rates that are going up some, I think people, even though they're cautious, understand that they're going to have increases, inflationary-plus kind of increases next year.

我認為，目前以美國為代表，交易量可能相對穩定，利率有所上升，我認為人們即使持謹慎態度，也明白他們將會增加通貨膨脹。

But at the moment, I'd say people generally are looking at travel budgets that -- in the corporate side that are going to be higher next year.

但目前，我想說，人們普遍關注的是明年企業方面的旅遊預算將會更高。

The question is how much higher, and I think that gets back to seeing what happens with the broader economy as a result of some of the things that are going on in the political world.

問題是高出多少，我認為這又回到了政治世界中發生的一些事情導致更廣泛的經濟發生什麼的情況。

The next question will be from Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利提出。

Chris, you talked a little bit about the partnership and the January 1, '18 launch.

Chris，您談到了合作夥伴關係以及 18 年 1 月 1 日的發布。

I don't know if you guys could provide any color, but I believe there was at least some influence from this transaction that we saw in the 2Q.

我不知道你們是否可以提供任何顏色，但我相信我們在第二季度看到的這筆交易至少有一些影響。

And I just wanted to maybe briefly cover that.

我只是想簡單地介紹一下這一點。

And then if I could just get some clarity on the license fees.

然後我能否澄清一下許可證費用。

I think you called out 11% of total fees in 2017 going to 13% in 2018.

我認為您將 2017 年總費用的 11% 提高到 2018 年的 13%。

Is that of an assumed 2018 fee number?

這是假設的 2018 年費用數字嗎？

Or is that kind off of a stable base and the mix just goes up by 200 basis points?

或者這種情況是在基礎穩定的情況下而只是上升了 200 個基點嗎？

I mean, I think the way -- taking the second one first.

我的意思是，我想辦法──先考慮第二個。

Assume a sort of normalize rate of growth on fees, you can go back to what we gave you last year at the end of the year at the Analyst Day and then take the percentage of that.

假設某種費用成長率正常化，你可以回到我們去年年底分析師日給你的數據，然後計算其中的百分比。

I mean, basically, we're saying it's a 200 basis point increase.

我的意思是，基本上，我們說的是增加 200 個基點。

That's not all the co-brand relationship here or with other co-brand relationships we have around the world.

這並不是這裡或我們在世界各地擁有的其他聯合品牌關係的全部聯合品牌關係。

It's some HGV as well.

這也是一些HGV。

We've sort of put it in the -- all of it in the bucket together.

我們已經把它全部放進一個桶子裡了。

But largely, that -- the largest part of that increase that you'd see is being driven by the co-brand relationship.

但在很大程度上，您所看到的成長的最大部分是由聯合品牌關係所推動的。

And in Q2, there was a modest benefit, even though the deal really doesn't go fully live till January of next year with the new cards and all that.

在第二季度，儘管這項交易要到明年 1 月才會透過新卡等全面生效，但還是帶來了一定的好處。

There were elements of it that did go retroactively live to the beginning of this year in terms of the -- what they pay for points and things.

其中的一些元素確實可以追溯到今年年初——他們為積分和物品支付的費用。

And that as a result, [starting] in the second quarter, there was a bit of a catch-up that did have a modest benefit in license fees in Q2.

結果，從第二季開始，出現了一些追趕，這確實在第二季的許可費方面帶來了適度的好處。

Great.

偉大的。

And then if I missed it, I apologize, but in terms of your outlook on group for the back half of the year and kind of pacing, is there anything notable that shifted from your commentary post the 1Q?

如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但就您對下半年集團的展望和節奏而言，您第一季的評論有什麼值得注意的變化嗎？

I wouldn't say anything meaningful.

我不會說任何有意義的話。

You did not miss it.

你沒有錯過它。

We didn't talk about it.

我們沒有談論它。

I was fairly confident we would get asked in Q&A, so I decided I'd leave the group commentary for Q&A.

我相當有信心我們會在問答中被問到，所以我決定將小組評論留給問答。

Here's how I would describe group overall, so to answer your question.

以下是我對整個團隊的描述，以回答您的問題。

It is weaker in the second half of the year than it was in the first half.

下半年比上半年弱。

That was fully expected from the beginning of when we started budgeting last year just for a whole bunch of reasons in terms of how groups are cycling through.

從去年我們開始製定預算時就完全預料到了這一點，只是出於團體如何循環的一大堆原因。

That is almost entirely driven by Q3 being weaker.

這幾乎完全是由於第三季的疲軟所致。

There are a couple -- a few things going on there.

有一些事情正在發生。

The Fourth of July hurts a lot, the beginning of the third quarter just because basically it became a week of no business, no group travel.

七月四號很痛苦，第三季初只是因為基本上變成了沒有業務、沒有團體旅行的一周。

The shift in the Jewish holidays, that's between September and October, it has a big impact on group in the third quarter.

猶太節日的轉變（即九月至十月之間）對第三季的集團產生了重大影響。

The pace in Q2 into Q3 was a bit weaker.

第二季到第三季的步伐有點弱。

Having said that, the fourth quarter is quite strong on the group side.

話雖如此，第四季集團方面還是相當強勁的。

Actually, the pace in Q2 [for] Q4 was up.

事實上，第四季第二季的步伐有所加快。

So it really is sort of a, from everything we're seeing, sort of a Q3 phenomena that's driving the second half of the year.

因此，從我們所看到的一切來看，這確實是一種推動下半年發展的第三季現象。

If we look at sort of position this year and then look at position going into next year, position for group going into next year is still meaningfully above the position that we see for this year at this point.

如果我們看看今年的排名，然後看看明年的排名，進入明年的集團排名仍然明顯高於我們今年看到的排名。

The next question will be from Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。

Chris, Kevin, do you think U.S. RevPAR grows in the 3Q similarly to what you experienced in the 2Q?

Chris、Kevin，您認為美國第三季的 RevPAR 成長是否與第二季類似？

Or does it take a little bit of lay down just given some of the calendar shifts that you referred to?

或者考慮到您提到的一些日曆變化，是否需要稍微休息一下？

Yes, that's a really good question, and we get a bunch of incoming calls this morning on sort of Q2 being 0.5% in the U.S. I think it requires some context before I answer that.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題，今天早上我們接到很多電話，詢問美國第二季的利率為 0.5%。

And that is there is a lot of crazy stuff going on with calendar, day of week and holiday shifts this year that more than the average.

今年的日曆、星期幾和假期班次發生了很多瘋狂的事情，比平均水平要多。

And so if you look at the numbers, which we obviously have done, and you sort of cleanse the whole year of all of these holiday shifts between Easter, Fourth of July, the Jewish holidays and some other things that are less impactful but nonetheless are impacting the results.

因此，如果你看一下我們顯然已經做過的數字，你就會清理掉全年所有這些節日在復活節、七月四日、猶太節日和其他一些影響較小但仍然具有影響力的事情之間的變化。

What actually is happening is, first of all, first half versus second half, is roughly the same, although believe it or not, second half is better in the U.S. than the first half when you cleanse it for all those things.

實際發生的情況是，首先，上半場與下半場大致相同，儘管信不信由你，當你清理所有這些東西時，美國的下半場比上半場更好。

And if you look at it quarter-by-quarter, the weakest quarters are the first and the third, and the strongest are the second and the fourth.

如果按季度來看，最弱的是第一季和第三季度，最強的是第二季和第四季。

So when you cleanse it for the holiday shift, Q2 was better than Q1.

因此，當您在假期輪班時對其進行清理時，第二季度比第一季更好。

I mean, I gave you the number in my prepared comments that we had a 70 basis point sort of net impact of Fourth of July and Easter.

我的意思是，我在準備好的評論中向您提供了 7 月 4 日和復活節的淨影響為 70 個基點的數字。

If you relate that to the U.S., call it 1 point, 1 point impact means that roughly, the U.S. would've been, in Q2, net of all that, about 1.5 point.

如果你將其與美國聯繫起來，稱其為 1 個點，1 個點的影響意味著，粗略地說，美國在第二季度扣除所有這些影響後，大約會產生 1.5 個點。

If you do the same sort of math in Q1, it's a bit less than 1 point.

如果你在第一季做同樣的數學計算，它會比 1 分少一點。

So I think what's going on, when I net all of that out, when I look at the data, sort of like -- and this is what I would hope you guys, would want to hear from me.

所以我認為，當我把所有這些都弄清楚，當我查看數據時，有點像 - 這就是我希望你們希望聽到我的消息。

Sort of -- is there anything like big movements that are going on?

有點——有什麼大的運動正在發生嗎？

I think that all these holiday shifts are creating the appearance that there's a bunch of big stuff going on.

我認為所有這些假期輪班都讓人感覺有很多大事正在發生。

I think there isn't.

我認為沒有。

In my opinion, what's going on is sort of steady as she goes.

在我看來，隨著她的進展，發生的事情是穩定的。

That's what I said with our team.

這就是我對我們團隊說的話。

As you look at it, I mean, there are some ups and downs quarter-by-quarter even when you cleanse it.

當你看到它時，我的意思是，即使你清理它，每個季度也會有一些起伏。

But the bottom line on the business right now is you've got business transient that is growing but not as much strength as we would like, sort of to the low, to the midpoint of our guidance range.

但目前業務的底線是，業務瞬態正在成長，但強度沒有我們希望的那麼強，有點低，達到我們指導範圍的中點。

You have group that's sort of been towards the mid-point of the range, and you've had leisure transient that's been sort of at the high end.

有的團體處於該範圍的中點，有的休閒瞬態則處於高端。

You've had relative strength there.

你在那裡有相對實力。

And while I can pick month-to-month a little bit here and there, when you really sort of look through it all, that's what's going on.

雖然我可以逐月在這裡或那裡挑選一點，但當你真正仔細查看這一切時，這就是正在發生的事情。

That sort of shouldn't be surprising anybody, given what's going on with the broader economy, and certainly here in the U.S. I mean, out around the world, Kevin covered a bunch of the stats, very different set up.

考慮到更廣泛的經濟狀況，尤其是在美國，我的意思是，在世界各地，凱文報道了一系列統計數據，設定非常不同，這種情況不應該讓任何人感到驚訝。

But there's still the 72% of our business is here in the U.S., so it's driving the bulk of the result.

但我們 72% 的業務仍然在美國，因此它推動了大部分業績。

It's pretty much steady as she goes and as a consequence of broader economic growth that is positive but not particularly robust.

隨著她的發展，情況相當穩定，這是更廣泛的經濟成長的結果，這種成長是積極的，但不是特別強勁。

And so my expectation, as I -- we sifted through data, studying every number known to man, obviously getting ready for today, is you're sort of in that range.

因此，當我篩選資料、研究人類已知的每一個數字、顯然是為今天做準備時，我的期望是，你在這個範圍內。

We targeted the midpoint of our range because that's what our forecast does.

我們的目標是範圍的中點，因為這就是我們的預測所做的。

I feel pretty confident in that.

我對此很有信心。

But you're sort of in that 1% to 3% range until something happens.

但在發生某些事情之前，你的機率會處於 1% 到 3% 的範圍內。

Harry Curtis' first question about what has to happen to make corporates feel better.

哈里·柯蒂斯的第一個問題是如何讓企業感覺更好。

There needs to be something else to happen to sort of get you out of that range and, until then, we're in that range.

需要發生其他事情才能讓你脫離這個範圍，而在那之前，我們就處於這個範圍內。

Now the good news story for us is, we can be in the middle of that range.

現在對我們來說好消息是，我們可以處於這個範圍的中間。

At 2, you can add 6% to 7% in the unit growth and we're driving bottom line growth of 7% to 9%.

如果為 2，您可以將單位成長增加 6% 到 7%，我們將推動利潤成長 7% 到 9%。

And what is from a same-store point of view, fine and good and stable by the way.

順便說一句，從同店的角度來看，又好又好又穩定。

As I said, I don't -- I wouldn't read too much into these quarter-to-quarter shifts because I view it as pretty stable, but we're taking a relatively sort of modest growth environment and creating, I think, a darn good result on the bottom line in terms of growing EBITDA and growing cash flow as a consequence of the resiliency of this model.

正如我所說，我不會過多解讀這些季度間的變化，因為我認為它相當穩定，但我認為我們正在採取相對溫和的增長環境並創造由於該模型的彈性，在EBITDA 增長和現金流增長方面取得了非常好的底線結果。

But I think it's important.

但我認為這很重要。

That's a longer answer than I know you wanted.

我知道這個答案比你想要的還要長。

But I think it's important context because I think it's easy to get -- and you only have the data that you get.

但我認為這是重要的背景，因為我認為它很容易獲得——而且你只有獲得的數據。

It's easy to get caught up in these big shifts that are going on quarter-to-quarter.

人們很容易陷入這些逐季度發生的重大轉變。

If you cleanse it, there's really not that much going on quarter-to-quarter.

如果你清理它，每個季度都不會發生太多事情。

Great.

偉大的。

And then one quick question for Kevin.

然後問凱文一個簡單的問題。

You increased your guidance for cash available for capital return.

您增加了可用於資本回報的現金的指導。

What -- I mean, I know it's not an enormous change, but what drove that upward move?

什麼——我的意思是，我知道這不是一個巨大的變化，但是什麼推動了這種向上的移動呢？

Yes.

是的。

Sure.

當然。

There's a little bit -- obviously, a little bit of...

有一點——顯然，有一點…

10%.

10%。

Yes, 10% is pretty good.

是的，10%已經很不錯了。

A little bit of it, of course, was the upward revision of the EBITDA guide, Joe.

當然，其中一小部分是 EBITDA 指南的上調，Joe。

Of course, a little bit of it is just sort of refining our forecast as we're halfway through the year and we're thinking about our cash uses for the balance of the year.

當然，其中一點只是為了完善我們的預測，因為我們已經過半了，我們正在考慮今年剩餘時間的現金使用情況。

Little bit of lower cash taxes, and there was a little bit of a -- there was a modest incentive baked into the co-brand card deal that we signed that came through in the second quarter, which helped in that $100 million.

現金稅稍微降低了一些，而且我們在第二季簽署的聯合品牌卡交易中加入了適度的激勵措施，這有助於增加 1 億美元。

And in the 3Q and 4Q, do you have incrementally more license fees coming from the credit card deal?

在第三季和第四季，信用卡交易帶來的授權費是否會逐漸增加？

Or is it, within a full year, just related to the 2Q?

或者說，一整年內，只跟第二季有關？

No.

不。

We had a bit of a catch-up.

我們有一點追趕。

It's built into the numbers we gave.

它已包含在我們提供的數字中。

We had a bit of a catch-up in Q2, which I talked about, because it went retro to January 1. And then we built -- everything else is built into Qs 3 and 4 guidance, or Q3 and full year guidance that we gave you.

我們在第二季度有一些追趕，我談到了這一點，因為它追溯至1 月1 日。全年指導，我們給你。

The next question will be from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出。

Chris, maybe to stick with the same thing on the U.S. RevPAR performances.

克里斯，也許在美國 RevPAR 表現上也堅持同樣的做法。

It's sort of kind of a 2-part question, but I guess the first one, because I think we're -- a number of investors are just wondering directly, do you think there's any chance or risk that Q3 RevPAR in the U.S. could get to negative?

這是一個由兩部分組成的問題，但我猜是第一部分，因為我認為我們——許多投資者只是直接想知道，您認為美國第三季的 RevPAR 是否有任何機會或風險？

Or do you think we still stick in positive territory despite all the calendar shifts?

或者您認為儘管日曆發生了所有變化，我們仍然處於積極的狀態嗎？

Not to hold you to a specific number, but I think people are a little bit worried about the headline there.

並不是要讓你知道一個具體的數字，但我認為人們有點擔心那裡的標題。

And then...

進而...

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

You want me to -- I'll tackle that one, and then you can keep going.

你希望我——我會解決這個問題，然後你就可以繼續前進。

I'd say Q3, as reported, I think will be positive although it will be in the -- it will be low.

我想說，正如報導的那樣，我認為第三季將是積極的，儘管它會很低。

If you cleanse it again for the holiday shifts thing that I'm saying, in my opinion, it's clearly positive.

如果你在假期再次清潔它，我所說的事情，在我看來，這顯然是積極的。

I think that's helpful for folks.

我認為這對人們有幫助。

And then the second part would just be, if we look at the brand breakdown a little bit, it does look like some of the more midscale and upscale brands were some of the contributors to that lower RevPAR performance.

第二部分是，如果我們稍微看一下品牌細分，就會發現一些中階和高檔品牌確實是導致 RevPAR 表現較低的原因之一。

And again, we're not getting those brands domestically, so it's not going to be a perfect comp for us.

再說一次，我們不會在國內銷售這些品牌，所以這對我們來說不是一個完美的選擇。

But can you just give us a sense of any fears or question marks you might have around new supply growth that you're seeing in some of those chain scales in particular and could that be dragging down our RevPAR performance?

但是，您能否讓我們了解您對新供應成長可能存在的任何擔憂或問號，特別是在某些連鎖規模中，這可能會拖累我們的 RevPAR 績效嗎？

Or do you not think that that's a particular impact right now?

或者您不認為這現在有特別的影響嗎？

I'd say it's a good question.

我想說這是一個好問題。

The honest answer -- I mean, we've obviously looked.

誠實的回答——我的意思是，我們顯然已經看過了。

The honest answer is there is more supply coming there than you are seeing in the other segments.

誠實的答案是，那裡的供應量比您在其他細分市場看到的要多。

So logically, there has to be a bit of impact there, although that, I would say, we've studied it like all these things quite carefully.

因此，從邏輯上講，那裡肯定會產生一些影響，儘管我想說，我們已經像所有這些事情一樣非常仔細地研究了它。

And I don't think that's the majority of what has caused the RevPAR growth in some of those brands to be at the lower end of the -- what we're reporting.

我認為這並不是導致其中一些品牌的 RevPAR 成長處於我們所報告的較低水平的主要原因。

I think it has a lot to do with some other things.

我認為這與其他一些事情有很大關係。

First, keep in perspective that all of those brands are category killers, so they start life at a much higher absolute RevPAR level than almost all their competition.

首先，請記住，所有這些品牌都是類別殺手，因此它們的絕對 RevPAR 水平比幾乎所有競爭對手都要高得多。

So when you look at absolute growth in RevPAR, not relative percentage growth, they're performing just fine.

因此，當您查看 RevPAR 的絕對增長而不是相對百分比增長時，它們的表現就很好。

They're just starting in some of these cases over 120% market share to begin with, competing against brands -- a lot of brands that are a lot lower than that.

在某些情況下，他們剛開始與品牌競爭，市佔率超過 120%，而許多品牌的市佔率遠低於這個數字。

So it is a mathematic -- sort of a math thing.

所以這是一個數學——有點數學的東西。

There are also, honestly, some oil patch issues.

老實說，還有一些油補丁問題。

If you look at those brands, in the first quarter, you saw a little bit better performance in the oil patch than you did in the second quarter, a little bit more impact again in the oil patches, which are not just a couple of places.

如果你看看這些品牌，在第一季度，你會看到石油領域的表現比第二季度好一點，石油領域的影響又更大了，這不僅僅是幾個地方。

And those brands would be disproportionately a little bit more hit by that.

這些品牌受到的打擊會更大一些。

And then probably last, again, it's sort of a combo platter of all these things.

也許最後，再一次，它是所有這些東西的組合拼盤。

In the first half of the year, particularly in the second quarter, really was driven by a lot of leisure strength just given what was going on with the shift in the Fourth of July and the Easter holidays, meant that it was more leisure-dependent.

今年上半年，特別是第二季度，確實受到大量休閒力量的推動，考慮到國慶日和復活節假期的轉變，意味著人們更加依賴休閒。

And some of those brands, particularly like the Hilton Garden Inn and its segment, is not as much a leisure brand as it is business travel -- serving business travelers.

其中一些品牌，尤其是希爾頓花園酒店及其細分市場，與其說是休閒品牌，不如說是商務旅行品牌——為商務旅客提供服務。

So in an environment where it's heavy leisure orientation because of those holiday shifts and otherwise, it will have some impact on their performance.

因此，在由於假期輪班等原因而以休閒為導向的環境中，這會對他們的表現產生一些影響。

So again, those brands are -- each of those that you're looking at are category killers.

再說一次，你所看到的這些品牌都是品類殺手。

If you went out and talked to development community, they lead their respective segments or are way above any of the competition.

如果您出去與開發社群交談，您會發現他們在各自的細分市場中處於領先地位，或者遠高於任何競爭對手。

And so I think they're performing just fine, Q2.

所以我認為他們的表現很好，第二季。

A bunch of things, as I just described, sort of causing it.

正如我剛才所描述的，有很多因素導致了這種情況。

The next question will come from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）提出。

On the credit card program, can you remind us, if you can, what will ultimately drive the growth in the fees from this going forward?

關於信用卡計劃，您能否提醒我們，如果可以的話，最終推動費用成長的因素是什麼？

Is that the number of members signing up for it?

這是報名的會員人數嗎？

Is it the usage?

是用法嗎？

The profitability?

獲利能力？

And did that change versus the prior agreement?

與之前的協議相比，這有變化嗎？

It's a little -- you're going to get tired of hearing me say this, I guess, but it's a little bit of everything.

有點——我猜你會厭倦聽我這麼說，但一切都有點。

It's -- if you think about the system that we had before, we had a dual-branded system.

如果你考慮我們之前的系統，我們有一個雙品牌系統。

We had 2 major providers.

我們有 2 個主要提供者。

It meant that it was far from optimized in terms of spend.

這意味著它在支出方面遠未優化。

We think there's a huge amount of upside in getting not only more people in, but honestly, just incremental spend in the system.

我們認為，不僅讓更多人加入，老實說，增加系統支出也有巨大的好處。

And that's going to drive a lot of it.

這將推動很多事情的發展。

Obviously, the margins that we can't get into in detail for reasons of our agreements with Amex, but we negotiated better -- base better margins, obviously, that benefit license fees that, obviously, predominantly benefit the system.

顯然，由於我們與美國運通協議的原因，我們無法詳細了解利潤率，但我們進行了更好的談判 - 顯然，基礎更好的利潤率有利於許可費，顯然，這主要有利於系統。

The largest part of the economic benefit of this transaction is going back into the system in a whole bunch of different ways that benefit customers and that benefit our ownership community.

這項交易的最大部分經濟利益是以各種不同的方式回到系統中，這有利於客戶，也有利於我們的所有權社群。

But it's a combo of those.

但這是這些的組合。

We're going to get people -- more people in.

我們將讓人們——更多的人加入。

They're going to spend more, and we got a better margin in our negotiations with Amex.

他們將花費更多，而我們在與美國運通的談判中獲得了更好的利潤。

Okay.

好的。

And then changing gears a bit.

然後稍微改一下。

We've seen more press releases on the changes to the cancellation policies from some of your peers.

我們已經看到一些同行發布了更多關於取消政策變更的新聞稿。

And I know you've been testing various things there.

我知道你一直在那裡測試各種東西。

Where are you in fine-tuning the cancellation policy?

你們在哪些方面對取消政策進行了微調？

And how do you think about the potential financial ramifications?

您如何看待潛在的財務影響？

Yes.

是的。

You, obviously, saw it because it became public that we went to a 48-hour policy that will get instituted -- it will get rolled out next week.

顯然，你看到了它，因為我們公開了一項將要製定的 48 小時政策，該政策將於下週推出。

We announced it to our owners a month ago.

我們一個月前向我們的業主宣布了這一消息。

And in select markets, 10 or 20 markets around the country, we'll go to 72 hours where we think it's appropriate.

在特定市場，全國 10 或 20 個市場，我們將在我們認為合適的情況下實行 72 小時營業。

The reasons, I think, are obvious for why we're doing that, not just because of new technologies, but just because customers, many of them ultimately have been trained to do multiple bookings and do things that have created a scenario where cancellations have, in some markets, skyrocketed.

我認為，我們這樣做的原因是顯而易見的，不僅是因為新技術，還因為客戶，其中許多人最終接受了多次預訂的培訓，並做了一些導致取消預訂的情況的事情。市場，價格飆漲。

They've got -- they've gone way up, and it makes it -- it's not good for anybody.

他們已經——他們已經走得很遠了，這對任何人都沒有好處。

It makes it very hard for us to manage inventory, particularly closed-in inventory, in a way that makes sense.

這使得我們很難以合理的方式管理庫存，特別是封閉庫存。

And the net result of that is, it costs everybody, because if we can't manage inventory, there is ultimately a cost to that, that at some point, gets borne by the consumer.

其最終結果是，每個人都會付出代價，因為如果我們無法管理庫存，最終會產生成本，在某種程度上，成本將由消費者承擔。

And so the idea is, we've got to be able to understand what people want to do a little bit earlier, a little bit closer in.

所以我們的想法是，我們必須能夠更早、更近地了解人們想要做什麼。

We can't have it be within 24 hours just because we can't manage that last-minute inventory.

我們無法在 24 小時內收到貨，只是因為我們無法管理最後一刻的庫存。

It's just not -- it's very difficult to do.

但事實並非如此——這很難做到。

And so that's why we're doing it.

這就是我們這樣做的原因。

We've had generally talked to a lot of our corporate customers and, otherwise, I think people understand it.

我們通常與許多企業客戶進行過交談，除此之外，我認為人們都理解這一點。

The reception's been perfectly fine.

接待非常好。

We are, to your comment, testing some other things.

根據您的評論，我們正在測試其他一些東西。

I'm not going to get into it in detail because we're deep in the middle of it.

我不會詳細討論它，因為我們已經深陷其中。

But hopefully, sometime in the second half of the year, we will layer some incremental opportunities on top of that.

但希望在今年下半年的某個時候，我們能在此基礎上提供一些增量機會。

That would really start to bifurcate then really thinking about from the 48-hour, 72-hour mark out to 7 days, creating fully flexible pricing structures and semi-flexible pricing structures that would require potentially even cancel 7 days -- within 7 days.

這真的會開始分歧，然後真正考慮從 48 小時、72 小時標記到 7 天，創建完全靈活的定價結構和半靈活的定價結構，甚至可能需要取消 7 天——7 天內。

Again, with the effort being to be able to manage inventory more intelligently, what we find as we're testing it is, the large majority of our customers actually do know within those time frames whether they need to cancel or not.

同樣，為了能夠更聰明地管理庫存，我們在測試時發現，絕大多數客戶實際上確實在這些時間範圍內知道他們是否需要取消。

It's just they haven't had to do anything about it, so they haven't.

只是他們沒有必要對此採取任何行動，所以他們沒有這樣做。

But if you can create the right incentive system where you give them an incentive to let you know earlier, it's good for them because they ultimately, probably, can get a little bit better deal.

但是，如果你可以創建正確的激勵制度，激勵他們儘早讓你知道，這對他們有好處，因為他們最終可能會得到更好的交易。

It's much better for us because we can manage that closed-in inventory more intelligently to make sure that we both price it right, but more importantly, we fill as much as we can and don't leave rooms unoccupied.

這對我們來說要好得多，因為我們可以更聰明地管理封閉庫存，以確保我們都定價正確，但更重要的是，我們盡可能多地填充並且不會留下空置的房間。

The next question will come from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。

Chris, in your prepared remarks, you talked about your RevPAR index increasing 60 basis points in the quarter and you increased in every brand in every region.

克里斯，在您準備好的發言中，您談到您的 RevPAR 指數在本季度增加了 60 個基點，並且您在每個地區的每個品牌都實現了成長。

I was just hoping if you could reconcile that with your U.S. RevPAR results.

我只是希望您能將其與您的美國 RevPAR 結果相一致。

Your RevPAR growth in the quarter was in line with the upper upscale and upscale industry growth, and I know you're in other segments.

您本季的 RevPAR 成長與上高檔和高端產業的成長一致，而且我知道您處於其他細分市場。

But if you were just kind of looking at it, kind of just not having the deep information that you would have, it might have been a little bit difficult to assume that you did grow RevPAR index in the quarter.

但如果你只是看看它，只是沒有獲得你所擁有的深入信息，那麼假設你在本季度的 RevPAR 指數確實有所增長，可能會有點困難。

Right.

正確的。

I think it gets down, Felicia, to the weighting.

費利西亞，我認為這取決於權重。

In the second quarter, if you look at where our brands are focused, it's not as much in leisure proportionately as some of the other brands that were driving the more significant increases in the STAR data.

在第二季度，如果你看看我們的品牌關注的重點，你會發現它在休閒方面的比例並不像其他一些品牌那樣推動了 STAR 數據的更顯著增長。

So again, when you sort of weight it, it's comparable, but where we're getting more lift is in the brands -- the brands that have more leisure orientation were driving more of the STAR result, and we're just not as present or present at all like in the economy segment as an example.

再說一次，當你權衡它時，它是可比的，但我們獲得更多提升的是品牌——具有更多休閒定位的品牌推動了更多的 STAR 結果，而我們只是沒有那麼現在或者以經濟領域為例。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And so -- and you've been pretty clear about the successes of Hampton, but can you just get maybe a little bit more granular where you might be seeing some pleasant surprises in your RevPAR index improvement?

那麼，您已經非常清楚漢普頓酒店的成功，但是您能否更詳細地了解一下，您可能會在 RevPAR 指數改善方面看到一些驚喜？

Well, I think the pleasant surprise, I covered and you did a nice job of covering it again, so thank you, which is all of our segments went up, all of our geographies saw market share gains, which is important.

嗯，我認為令人驚訝的是，我報道了，你再次報道得很好，所以謝謝你，我們所有的細分市場都上升了，我們所有的地區都看到了市場份額的增長，這很重要。

Hampton, I've said this many times before, I'm sure some would debate, I think it's probably the most -- objectively, the most successful hotel brand in the world.

漢普頓，我之前已經說過很多次了，我相信有些人會爭論，我認為它可能是世界上最客觀、最成功的酒店品牌。

If you just look at market share, which it not just leads its category, it annihilates the competition at over 120% average market share.

如果你只看市場份額，它不僅在同類產品中處於領先地位，而且以超過 120% 的平均市場份額消滅了競爭對手。

If you look at customer satisfaction scores, which we see, if you look at the demand from the development community here and around the world, Hampton is one of the gifts -- one of those wonderful gifts that keeps giving.

如果你看看我們看到的客戶滿意度分數，如果你看看這裡和世界各地的開發社區的需求，漢普頓就是禮物之一——不斷贈送的美妙禮物之一。

But we have lots of those gifts.

但我們有很多這樣的禮物。

I mean, if you go across the portfolio brands, one of the things that I've said many times and certainly on a couple of prior calls, which is as a consequence of a very much a focus on this approach is we want all of our brands to lead or be category killers in their segments.

我的意思是，如果你瀏覽一下投資組合品牌，我已經說過很多次的事情之一，當然還有之前的幾次電話會議，這是我們非常關注這種方法的結果，我們希望所有的我們的品牌在其細分市場中處於領先地位或成為品類殺手。

We do not want brands that are substandard because we don't want our customers playing a game of Russian roulette, where some of the brands that they stay with are good and some of them aren't.

我們不想要不合格的品牌，因為我們不希望我們的客戶玩俄羅斯輪盤賭，他們選擇的品牌有些好，有些則不好。

So that's why we've chosen a path to be very focused on organic growth, both in our existing brands, but also as we add new brands because we really feel like we can develop those brands in a way that really resonate from a product and service point of view with customers better than taking on other problems.

因此，這就是為什麼我們選擇了一條非常注重有機成長的道路，無論是在我們現有的品牌中，還是在我們添加新品牌時，因為我們真的覺得我們可以以一種真正與產品產生共鳴的方式來開發這些品牌，與客戶一起服務的角度比承擔其他問題更好。

So Hampton is one example.

漢普頓就是一個例子。

There are many of them.

其中有很多。

The good news story is, as I say, all of our brands are -- have market share premiums, some more than others, on average, 114%, which is the highest as far as I know in the industry.

正如我所說，好消息是，我們所有的品牌都具有市場份額溢價，其中一些品牌比其他品牌更高，平均為 114%，這是據我所知的行業中最高的。

And I think there's more upside potential, but they're doing well and we continue to focus on moving the needle and have had good success doing that.

我認為還有更多的上升潛力，但他們做得很好，我們繼續專注於推動發展，並在這方面取得了良好的成功。

And just to switch gears for a second, there's been -- obviously, there's been a lot of focus on U.S. RevPAR, but just switching to international, which they beat our expectations by a bit.

換個角度來看，顯然，人們對美國 RevPAR 給予了很多關注，但只是轉向了國際，他們超出了我們的預期。

I'm just wondering, and I don't even know if you can look at it this way, but how early are we in the cycle in Europe and Asia Pacific?

我只是想知道，我什至不知道你是否可以這樣看，但我們在歐洲和亞太地區處於這個週期有多早？

And do you think we could see a few years of growth at these levels?

您認為我們能在這些水準上看到幾年的成長嗎？

And what customer segments are driving growth in those regions?

哪些客戶群正在推動這些地區的成長？

Hey, Felicia.

嘿，費利西亞。

It's Kevin.

是凱文。

I'll take this one.

我要這個。

I think it's hard to say exactly where we are in the cycle.

我認為很難確切地說我們處於週期的哪個位置。

I think Europe, in terms of its economic cycle, is behind where the U.S. has been, and they're doing things like quantitative easing.

我認為，就經濟週期而言，歐洲落後於美國，而且他們正在採取量化寬鬆等措施。

And they have a lot of things to figure out, whether it be around Brexit or otherwise that's driving a lot of business activity.

他們有很多事情需要解決，無論是英國脫歐還是其他推動大量商業活動的事情。

Exactly where we are on the cycle, who knows.

我們究竟處於週期的哪個位置，誰知道呢。

I think for a large -- for the most part, our international markets are driven by transient.

我認為在很大程度上，我們的國際市場是由瞬態驅動的。

Growth has been very steady in all regions.

所有地區的成長都非常穩定。

And it's sort of coming from everywhere.

它來自四面八方。

And so there's no reason to think that we can't continue to grow RevPAR in those markets for a while.

因此，我們沒有理由認為我們不能在一段時間內繼續提高這些市場的 RevPAR。

And how long?

以及多長時間？

Who knows.

誰知道。

The next question will come from Robin Farley of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

You've answered a lot of the questions.

你已經回答了很多問題。

I guess, maybe just wanted to clarify the credit card branding fees.

我想，也許只是想澄清信用卡品牌費用。

The guidance you gave about the basis point increase on the growth rate and all of that, can you just sort of help us ballpark?

您給出的關於增長率基點增加的指導以及所有這些，您能幫助我們預測嗎？

Is that like $60 million incremental to next year?

明年是否會增加 6000 萬美元？

And maybe it's just because part of it ended up falling in this year after all.

也許只是因為其中一部分最終落入了今年。

So how much should we think about being the incremental from the credit card -- the new agreement on an annualized basis, what that adds versus the old agreement?

那麼，我們應該考慮多少信用卡增量——按年計算的新協議，與舊協議相比，增加了什麼？

Good question, Robin.

好問題，羅賓。

I think that, again, there are limits on what we're -- we've given you what we can give you.

我再次認為，我們的能力是有限的──我們已經給了你們我們可以給你們的東西。

I think if you -- you're good with math, if you back into it, I think you can get pretty close to the number.

我認為，如果你擅長數學，如果你重新投入數學，我認為你可以非常接近這個數字。

I mean, we're saying, 200 basis points essentially on our overall fee base.

我的意思是，我們說的是，基本上我們的整體費用基礎上有 200 個基點。

I mean that's a simple way to look at it.

我的意思是，這是一種簡單的看待方式。

So take your model x 2%.

因此，將你的模型乘以 2%。

But I guess I'm also trying to think about some of that falling in '17, some of it doesn't start until January of '18.

但我想我也在嘗試思考其中一些發生在 17 年的事情，其中​​一些直到 18 年 1 月才開始。

So the...

所以...

We're giving you the incremental for '18 in that number.

我們為您提供了 18 年該數字的增量。

Whatever is in '17, we baked in to what we've -- it's relatively modest, and we've baked that into the guidance we've given.

無論 17 年發生什麼，我們都會融入我們所擁有的東西——它相對溫和，並且我們已將其納入我們給予的指導中。

Right.

正確的。

So maybe...

所以也許...

So the 200, it's baked into the 11%.

所以200，它被烘焙到11%中。

The 11% factors for the catch-up (inaudible)

追趕的 11% 因素（聽不清楚）

The 200 is incremental.

200 是增量。

So the $60 million is incremental, but the total credit card (inaudible) may be higher than that because that's maybe some of the 2017 increase that you bumped up today, right?

因此，6000 萬美元是增量，但信用卡總額（聽不清楚）可能會更高，因為這可能是您今天增加的 2017 年增量的一部分，對嗎？

So sort of combining those to get to an annual?

那麼將這些結合起來就可以達到年度效果了嗎？

Is that the right way to think about it?

這是正確的思考方式嗎？

I'm not -- maybe you'd take it offline with Chris and the team.

我不是——也許你會和克里斯和團隊一起離線。

I think there's a modest amount of it in '17.

我認為 17 年的數量不多。

The bigger increment is going into '18, and we've given you pretty much the number, 2%.

更大的增量將進入 18 年，我們已經給了你差不多的數字，2%。

So that's as far as we can go.

這就是我們所能做到的。

The next question will come from Jeff Donnelly of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的傑夫唐納利。

Just a first half question, Chris.

只是前半個問題，克里斯。

If I could follow up on Harry's question, it sounds like you feel, I guess I'll say old-fashioned, cyclical supply and demand is the main reason behind the sort of stubborn re-acceleration in RevPAR.

如果我能跟進哈利的問題，聽起來你會覺得，我想我會說老式的周期性供需是每間可用房收入頑固地重新加速背後的主要原因。

But could secular factors be the culprit here, like maybe just continuing penetration of pricing transparency that sort of fuels a new level of, I guess I'll call it corporate frugality?

但長期因素是否會成為罪魁禍首，例如定價透明度的持續滲透，從而推動企業節儉達到一個新的水平，我想我會稱之為企業節儉？

Do you think there are some other factors that might be driving this?

您認為還有其他因素可能導致這種情況嗎？

I don't think so in a significant way.

我不這麼認為。

Again, I always want to be completely intellectually honest.

再說一次，我總是想在理智上完全誠實。

You can't say when you sit where I sit that the factors you just described, transparency or, heaven forbid, I talk about the other things I know that are on your mind for fear of going into the black hole of Airbnb, but some of those things don't have some impact.

當你坐在我坐的地方時，你不能說你剛才描述的因素，透明度，或者，天堂禁止，我談論我所知道的其他事情，因為擔心陷入 Airbnb 的黑洞，但有些事情那些事情並沒有什麼影響。

But here's the thing, Jeff.

但事情是這樣的，傑夫。

Nothing that we're looking at suggests any of those things are having a material impact.

我們所看到的一切都沒有顯示這些事情正在產生實質影響。

It really is the economy.

這確實是經濟。

It really is that you've got growth, but it's fairly anemic, broader growth, and you have an environment, sadly, where nobody can get along here in my hometown, and it creates a bit -- it creates caution.

確實，你已經有了成長，但這是相當貧乏的、更廣泛的成長，而且可悲的是，你有一個環境，​​在我的家鄉，沒有人能和睦相處，它創造了一點——它創造了謹慎。

I've said it a bunch of times, when I was at NYU, I think I said on stage or somewhere.

當我在紐約大學時，我已經說過很多次了，我想我是在舞台上或其他地方說過的。

But there's sort of caution flags out.

但有一些警告信號需要注意。

If you're a business and thinking about hiring, spending, plant, equipment -- it's not that they're not doing it, they are.

如果你是一家企業，正在考慮招募、支出、工廠、設備——這並不是說他們沒有這樣做，而是他們正在這樣做。

It's just, I think, there's a little bit of caution in the air, and so they're holding back a bit, which is -- again, why -- we're seeing growth.

我認為，只是空氣中有點謹慎，所以他們有所保留，這也是我們看到成長的原因。

It's positive.

這是積極的。

Business transient is positive.

業務瞬態是正面的。

It can be more positive, I think, if people felt they had a little more certainty around what was going to happen with some of these big things that are swirling about legislatively.

我認為，如果人們覺得他們對立法中正在發生的一些重大事情將要發生的事情有更多的確定性，那可能會更積極。

And I think that's it more than anything as I look at the data, as I talk to customers.

當我查看數據、與客戶交談時，我認為這比任何事情都重要。

I think the air in the -- the balloon has just not got a lot of compression in it or as much compression as we would like.

我認為氣球中的空氣沒有受到很大的壓縮，或者沒有達到我們想要的壓縮程度。

And that's a little bit of a lack of confidence with that -- within that community.

在這個社區內，這有點缺乏信心。

And just a question on maybe the outlook for distribution costs, and hopefully, Kevin can maybe help you stay out of the black hole of Airbnb on this.

只是一個關於分銷成本前景的問題，希望 Kevin 可以幫助您遠離 Airbnb 的黑洞。

But is the -- some of the OTAs have been emphasizing home rental business maybe as a way to thwart -- like a flanking maneuver, if you will, by Airbnb that -- out of fear they evolve into an OTA.

但是，一些 OTA 一直在強調房屋租賃業務，這可能是一種阻礙的方式，就像 Airbnb 的側翼策略一樣，因為擔心他們會演變成 OTA。

Do you have a view on what could happen between the OTAs and home rental?

您對 OTA 和房屋租賃之間可能發生的情況有何看法？

And ultimately, do you think that's a battle -- I guess, where I'm going is, do you think that's a battle that has a beneficial outcome for hotels, maybe lower distribution costs?

最終，您認為這是一場戰鬥嗎？

Yes.

是的。

You know I'm usually very long winded.

你知道我通常很囉嗦。

I think the answer is yes.

我認為答案是肯定的。

Here's the thing.

事情是這樣的。

Competition's a good thing.

有競爭是好事。

And there being more competition in the home-sharing business and more -- by the way, you know my fundamental belief, it's just a different travel occasion, trip occasion.

家庭共享業務的競爭更加激烈等等——順便說一句，你知道我的基本信念，這只是一個不同的旅行場合，旅行場合。

We are not directly competitive with what they're doing.

我們與他們所做的事情沒有直接競爭。

So more competition, I think, is good there.

因此，我認為更多的競爭是件好事。

More competition, then morphing in whatever ways to feeling more like an OTA is a good -- whether they do that or not, I don't know.

更多的競爭，然後以任何方式變得更像 OTA 是件好事——無論他們是否這樣做，我不知道。

Not for me to say.

不由我說了算。

But the more competition there is in any space, the better off we are I think because more competition in theory would help have the impact of driving pricing down and distribution cost down.

但我認為，任何領域的競爭越激烈，我們的境況就越好，因為理論上更多的競爭將有助於降低定價和分銷成本。

So I view that as it's a long game.

所以我認為這是一場漫長的比賽。

A lot is going to go on over the next 2, 5, 10, 20 years.

未來 2 年、5 年、10 年、20 年將會發生很多事。

But as the competitive environment heats up, I think that the net result is good.

但隨著競爭環境的升溫，我認為最終的結果是好的。

The next question will come from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫提出。

Can you give us some breakdown of monthly RevPAR in the U.S. in the quarter?

您能否向我們提供本季美國每月 RevPAR 的一些詳細資訊？

And sorry if it's such a myopic question, but I think the concern is June RevPAR slowed versus May despite getting the July Fourth benefit.

抱歉，如果這是一個短視的問題，但我認為令人擔憂的是，儘管獲得了 7 月 4 日福利，但 6 月 RevPAR 較 5 月放緩。

And so -- and that kind of coincided with some issues in -- on the Hill or in D.C., so maybe there's just been slowdown in demand.

因此，這與國會山或華盛頓特區的一些問題同時發生，所以也許只是需求放緩。

Hold on a second.

稍等一下。

You're getting very granular.

你變得非常細化。

So June was, in the U.S., up about 1 point.

因此，美國 6 月上漲了約 1 個百分點。

July in the U.S., up -- would be adjusted up a bit.

美國 7 月價格上漲——將略有調整。

Christian, you've got -- I mean, Thomas, why don't we get the data involved?

克里斯蒂安，你有——我的意思是，托馬斯，我們為什麼不獲取相關數據？

Maybe get back with you.

也許會回到你身邊。

I mean, I guess, did anything stand out to you?

我的意思是，我想，有什麼事情對你來說很突出嗎？

What's the question you're trying to get at?

你想回答的問題是什麼？

I don't want to use the [question] to get into monthly data.

我不想使用[問題]來了解每月數據。

All right?

好的？

No, no, exactly.

不，不，確切地說。

So the question is, did it feel like, as we got -- went through the quarter and into July, that because of kind of the headlines that were coming out of D.C. with kind of the lack of health care reform playing out and maybe some other -- with the issues in Russia or with Russia, did it feel like that was impacted...

所以問題是，從整個季度到 7 月份，我們是否感覺是因為華盛頓特區出現的頭條新聞缺乏醫療保健改革，也許還有一些其他- 對於俄羅斯或與俄羅斯的問題，是否感覺受到了影響.... ..

Yes.

是的。

That's a better question.

這是一個更好的問題。

Not to pick on you, that's a better question.

不是針對你，這是一個更好的問題。

So the answer is, yes.

所以答案是，是的。

I mean, July is an odd month, both because there's all the swirl in the air, which is clearly not helping, but it also started out with a bang with Fourth of July week basically being a non -- the whole week was off travel.

我的意思是，七月是一個奇怪的月份，一方面是因為空氣中充滿了漩渦，這顯然沒有幫助，另一方面也是因為七月四日這一周基本上是一個非——整個星期都沒有旅行。

Basically, business traveler, which is the largest part of our system.

基本上是商務旅客，這是我們系統中最大的部分。

So again, I think when you holiday-adjust it, it's a different story, or day-of-the-week adjust the holiday, it's a different story.

所以，我再次認為，當你調整假期時，這是一個不同的故事，或者一周中的某一天調整假期，這是一個不同的故事。

But July is going to be weak now.

但七月現在將會疲軟。

August, as we look at the data going into August, it reverses that trend.

八月份，當我們查看進入八月的數據時，它扭轉了這一趨勢。

August is sort of back.

八月好像又回來了。

Our expectation is, and with the business we have in the books, is sort of both August and then September, when you cleanse it for the Jewish holidays, sort of back on track.

我們的期望是，根據我們在書中的業務，在八月和九月，當你為猶太節日清理它時，有點回到正軌。

So a large part of what's going on in July, the best data we have was kicking off with a really bad week that sort of people didn't travel, and then going into the next week, they were sort of in summer mode.

因此，我們掌握的最佳數據顯示，7 月發生的事情很大一部分是從非常糟糕的一周開始的，人們沒有出行，然後進入下週，他們有點處於夏季模式。

And that made it a painful start to July.

這讓七月的開始變得痛苦。

So I don't see between May, June, July, August, if I sort of put it all altogether, I don't think there's any real trend in July.

所以我看不到五月、六月、七月、八月之間的情況，如果我把它們全部放在一起的話，我認為七月沒有任何真正的趨勢。

When we get through August, obviously, we haven't gotten through August, but with what's on the books, I think we'll find that August was back on track.

當我們度過八月時，顯然，我們還沒有度過八月，但根據帳面上的情況，我想我們會發現八月回到了正軌。

Helpful.

有幫助。

And then I saw a press release out, I think it was this week that you're going to do a Hilton Garden refresh.

然後我看到一份新聞稿，我想這週你將對希爾頓花園進行翻新。

Can you just talk about the thought process behind that?

能簡單談談背後的思考過程嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean we're constantly looking at every one of these brands, as I talked a little bit about it before, both our new brands, but our existing brands to make sure that both from a product, service point of view, profitability point of view, they resonate with customers and with owners.

我的意思是，我們一直在關注每個品牌，正如我之前談到的那樣，我們的新品牌和現有品牌都在關注，以確保從產品、服務的角度和盈利的角度來看，看來，他們與客戶和業主產生了共鳴。

And so this is the next turn of the wheel for Garden Inn and just coming up with the next iteration of design that makes sure that it appeals to customers, a bunch of changes, modest changes in the rooms, bunch of changes in approach to the public spaces and food and beverage.

因此，這是花園酒店的下一個轉輪，剛剛提出下一個設計迭代，以確保它能吸引顧客，一系列的變化，房間的適度變化，以及對服務方式的一系列變化。飲料。

That gets rolled out over a pretty extended period of time that, ultimately, we think is going to be better for customers, will drive greater profitability, more efficient to build, more efficient to operate, more revenue-generating opportunities in the public spaces.

該計劃將在相當長的一段時間內推出，最終我們認為這將對客戶更好，將帶來更大的盈利能力，更高效的建設，更高效的運營，以及在公共場所創造更多創收機會。

So I think this is sort of business as usual for us.

所以我認為這對我們來說是一種常態。

I mean, we do -- sometimes, they get headlines.

我的意思是，我們確實——有時，他們會成為頭條新聞。

It's funny when they do, sometimes they don't.

當他們這樣做時很有趣，有時他們不這樣做。

But we're -- all of our existing brands are in a constant state of motion in terms of trying to figure out how to make sure that they remain relevant.

但我們所有現有品牌都處於不斷變化的狀態，試圖找出如何確保它們保持相關性。

Your next question will come from Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So sorry to beat a dead horse here on demand trends, but earlier in the year, you had suggested that if some of the early trends continue, you could be at the high end of the RevPAR range.

很抱歉，在需求趨勢方面，我們已經死了。

I know now you're saying the forecast would suggest the midpoint of the range.

我現在知道您是說預測會建議範圍的中點。

Am I reading too much into that comment?

我是不是對這篇評論讀太多了？

Or has demand softened because of some of these D.C. issues that you talked about?

或者由於您談到的華盛頓特區的一些問題，需求是否有所減弱？

And is that entirely attributed to business transient?

這完全歸因於業務瞬態嗎？

Or have you seen changes in the leisure and group side as well?

或者您也看到了休閒和團體方面的變化嗎？

No.

不。

I think in the main, what I would say is -- what I tried to say, hopefully I did say it this way on earlier calls, that if we had a 1% to 3% range, you should always assume when we give a range that our forecast is somewhere around the middle of it.

我認為主要是，我想說的是——我想說的是，希望我在之前的電話會議上確實這樣說過，如果我們有 1% 到 3% 的範圍，那麼當我們給出一個我們的預測大約在中間的範圍內。

We try to be very disciplined about that.

我們努力在這方面保持嚴格的紀律。

I think what I was trying to indicate is if we do get -- I had some optimism, as did many, that if we do get some of these legislative stuff going that it would unlock a little bit more optimism in the business community, which would drive hiring, spending, investment, et cetera, that we -- I thought could translate on a lag into the business and could propel us above the midpoint, somewhere between the midpoint and the high point.

我想我想表達的是，如果我們確實得到了——我和許多人一樣持樂觀態度，如果我們確實得到了一些立法內容，那麼它將在商界釋放更多的樂觀情緒，這將推動招聘、支出、投資等等，我認為這可以轉化為業務的滯後，並且可以推動我們高於中點，介於中點和高點之間。

As I sit here today, and I sort of covered in my prepared comments, it's not that I don't think that, that can happen.

當我今天坐在這裡，並在我準備好的評論中進行闡述時，我並不是不認為這種情況不會發生。

I'm still sort of hopeful that, eventually, we're going to get the tax reform and we're going to get past health care and some of the noise that's out there.

我仍然對最終我們將進行稅收改革抱有希望，並且我們將擺脫醫療保健和一些外界的噪音。

The difference between now and then is we're more than halfway through the year.

現在和那時的差別是我們已經過半了。

We all know that if these things happen, the benefits -- the trickle-through to benefit us is on a lag and given we're halfway through the year and they haven't done it and they're getting ready to go on summer recess sustains the reason that by the time, if they get it done, they do get it done, we're not going to have enough time for it to trickle through and really benefit this year.

我們都知道，如果這些事情發生，帶來的好處——讓我們受益的涓滴效應是滯後的，考慮到我們已經過半了，他們還沒有做到這一點，他們正準備在夏天繼續休會維持的原因是，到時候，如果他們完成了，他們確實完成了，我們今年將沒有足夠的時間讓它慢慢滲透並真正受益。

So that puts us in the midpoint of our guidance.

因此，這使我們處於指導的中間位置。

And plus or minus, that's where we've been.

無論正負，這就是我們一直以來的處境。

I would say, over the last couple of quarters, our forecasting has been within 20 bps of the midpoint, one way or another.

我想說，在過去幾季中，我們的預測無論如何都在中點 20 個基點以內。

So I would say not -- our forecasting hasn't changed materially.

所以我想說不是——我們的預測沒有重大變化。

My view of it of getting any of that incremental benefit this year has just because the year is running out on us.

我認為今年獲得任何增量收益只是因為我們的時間已經不多了。

And hopefully, things happen towards the end of the year, tax reform and otherwise, and that will give us some opportunities next year.

希望年底前，稅改等方面的事情能夠發生，這將為我們明年帶來一些機會。

But it just seems, I would say, just realism setting in and where we are in the year suggests, it's a little bit harder to make that assumption right now.

但我想說，現實情況以及我們今年所處的情況表明，現在做出這樣的假設有點困難。

The next question will be from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

下一個問題將來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的比爾·克勞。

Chris, I wanted to limit my focus on Chinese investors, and they've been in the news quite a bit.

克里斯，我想把注意力集中在中國投資者身上，他們已經經常出現在新聞中。

I'm not sure how much you can tell me about what you're hearing from HNA and their future plans and their stake in your company.

我不確定你能告訴我多少關於你從海航那裡聽到的消息、他們的未來計劃以及他們在貴公司的股份。

But also Anbang and the Waldorf in New York, if you can give us an update there.

還有安邦和紐約的​​華爾道夫酒店，如果您能給我們最新情況的話。

You said you're going to open a new luxury hotel.

你說你要開一家新的豪華飯店。

I didn't know if that might be the new flagship Waldorf.

我不知道這是否是華爾道夫的新旗艦。

And kind of what's happening to your fee income from the Waldorf that I think at one point was thought to be as much as $10 million a year.

你從華爾道夫酒店獲得的費用收入發生了怎樣的變化，我認為一度被認為每年高達 1000 萬美元。

What's happening while the Waldorf is closed?

華爾道夫酒店關門期間發生了什麼事？

Yes.

是的。

I thought it was odd that I might make it through this call and not talk about our Chinese partners.

我覺得很奇怪，我可能會透過這次電話會議而不談論我們的中國合作夥伴。

So Bill, thank you for making sure we got to that.

比爾，謝謝你確保我們做到了這一點。

I am 3 minutes out and I almost got through, no.

我還差 3 分鐘，我就快接通了，沒有。

So here's the thing, obviously, both Anbang and HNA have been in the press along with some other major Chinese conglomerates lately.

顯然，事情是這樣的，安邦和海航以及其他一些中國大型企業集團最近都出現在媒體上。

And we've obviously had discussions with both groups.

我們顯然已經與這兩個群體進行了討論。

I think as it relates to HNA, I don't have a lot to add to what you're reading about in the sense that we continue to have a dialogue with them.

我認為，由於這與海航有關，我沒有太多要補充的內容，因為我們將繼續與他們進行對話。

We continue to work on the things that I have described in the past to you.

我們將繼續致力於我過去向您描述的事情。

And we continue to work on the process of on-boarding a couple of board members, all as planned.

我們將繼續致力於董事會成員的入職流程，一切都按計劃進行。

And my -- what happens with them, ultimately, obviously, I don't know.

而我的——顯然，我不知道他們最終會發生什麼。

But it appears to us sort of business as usual.

但在我們看來一切如常。

And so I don't think that there's anything much more to say about that.

所以我認為對此沒有什麼好說的。

I'm happy to answer any other sort of questions on that.

我很樂意回答有關此問題的任何其他問題。

On Anbang, we've had lots of discussion with those guys.

在安邦，我們與這些人進行了許多討論。

I think their -- as far as we know, their intentions are to continue at a rapid pace to enter into the major redevelopment of the Waldorf later this year.

我認為，據我們所知，他們的意圖是繼續快速地在今年稍後進行華爾道夫酒店的重大重建。

We continue to work on all the design and planning.

我們將繼續致力於所有的設計和規劃。

And the intention is, later this fall, we'll get into the heavy demolition and it will probably be, honestly, 3 years of work when that starts to get it up and operating.

我們的目的是，今年秋天晚些時候，我們將進行大規模拆除，老實說，當開始安裝和運行時，可能需要 3 年的工作。

So as far as we know, they are moving forward in every conversation that we've had with them.

據我們所知，他們在我們與他們進行的每一次對話中都在取得進展。

They have suggested that to be the case.

他們建議情況確實如此。

So time will tell.

所以時間會證明一切。

As it relates to our fees, I think I can tell you, I mean, think we disclosed it.

由於這與我們的費用有關，我想我可以告訴你，我的意思是，我們披露了它。

It's a little over $7 million in fees that we earned on it last year.

去年我們從中賺取的費用略高於 700 萬美元。

I think $7.3 million is what I remember, but call it, $7 million and that went away this year, that when it reopens it, will come back.

我想我記得的是 730 萬美元，但就叫它 700 萬美元，今年就消失了，當它重新開放時，它會回來。

And we think when it reopens, it will be higher than what it was when it left the system, but built into our numbers.

我們認為，當它重新開放時，它會比它離開系統時更高，但會被納入我們的數字中。

That's built into our numbers.

這已納入我們的數字中。

That's already out in the numbers that we're giving you because, obviously, we knew that Waldorf was going to be closing, so it's been out in the numbers.

這已經包含在我們提供給您的數據中，因為顯然，我們知道華爾道夫將要關閉，所以它已經包含在數據中。

In terms of the new hotel that's opening in Midtown, that is not the Waldorf.

就市中心開幕的新飯店而言，那不是華爾道夫酒店。

It would be a miracle for them to be able to get it open by the end of the year since it's going to take about 3 years to renovate it.

如果能在今年年底開業，對他們來說簡直就是一個奇蹟，因為翻修需要大約3年的時間。

It's another deal that I had hoped that we'd be able to talk about, specifically.

這是我希望我們能夠具體討論的另一項交易。

We can't.

我們不能。

We're very close to signing another deal that will be with -- hopefully, if all gets done, will be done with the Conrad brand, not the Waldorf brand, given what we're doing with the Waldorf Astoria.

我們非常接近簽署另一份協議，鑑於我們正在與華爾道夫酒店合作，希望如果一切順利的話，將與康萊德品牌而不是華爾道夫品牌達成。

And hopefully, by next quarter, we'll have it at a place where we can disclose the specific asset.

希望到下個季度，我們能夠將其放在可以揭露特定資產的地方。

Chris, 2 very quick follow-ups on that.

克里斯，對此有 2 個非常快速的跟進。

Could you remind us the lockup period for the HNA investment?

您能否提醒我們海航投資的鎖定期？

And then number two, to the best of your knowledge, has Anbang gotten the -- have they secured the financing for the redevelopment?

第二，據您所知，安邦是否已獲得重建的融資？

On the second one, I do not know.

至於第二個，我不知道。

They certainly represented to us that they have the financial capacity to do the renovation.

他們當然向我們表明他們有經濟能力進行翻修。

Exactly where they're getting that money, I do not know and probably will never know, I mean, in the sense that they have a lot of resources, given the size of their business.

他們到底從哪裡得到這筆錢，我不知道，也可能永遠不會知道，我的意思是，考慮到他們的業務規模，他們擁有大量資源。

On the HNA lockup, what was the question?

關於海航禁售事件，問題是什麼？

It's a 24-month lockup.

這是24個月的鎖定期。

They closed in March, so they've got, whatever, 20 months left on that lockup.

他們在 3 月關門，所以無論如何，他們還有 20 個月的禁閉期。

The next question will be from Patrick Scholes of SunTrust.

下一個問題將由 SunTrust 的 Patrick Scholes 提出。

Sort of a big picture, cyclical type of question here.

這裡有一個大局觀、循環類型的問題。

Given the trajectory of your signings and what you know about that, this cycle, where would you think the peak growth rate in openings for you will occur?

考慮到你的簽約軌跡以及你對此的了解，在這個週期中，你認為你的職缺成長率的高峰會出現在哪裡？

And is it 2018?

現在是 2018 年嗎？

2019?

2019？

2020?

2020年？

Where would -- where might you peg that at?

你會把它釘在哪裡？

Gosh, I hope -- I hope it's way out in the future, I don't know.

天哪，我希望──我希望將來能有出路，我不知道。

I mean, if you look at it now in terms of openings, obviously, we're picking up this year over last year.

我的意思是，如果你現在從空缺職位的角度來看，顯然，我們今年的職位數量比去年有所增加。

We will have a record year in construction starts this year.

今年我們的開工量將創下歷史新高。

Over 80,000 rooms will start construction.

超過80,000間客房將開工。

So that would suggest that the peak is somewhere 2 or 3 years out, but that makes the assumption that somehow everything tails off, which I think is hard to assume at this point.

因此，這表明高峰會在 2 或 3 年後的某個地方，但這使得我們假設一切都會以某種方式逐漸減弱，我認為目前很難假設這一點。

If we do our job, we're going to find ways in this big world we live in to keep deploying resources and brands and following demand patterns that are different in different places of the world.

如果我們做好我們的工作，我們將在我們所處的這個大世界中找到方法，繼續部署資源和品牌，並遵循世界不同地方不同的需求模式。

But it's certain.

但可以肯定的是。

I don't think -- it's not this year.

我不認為——今年不會。

It's not next year just given what's going under construction.

考慮到正在建設的項目，這不是明年。

It's probably a few years out.

大概要過幾年了。

And the next question will come from Smedes Rose of Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯提出。

I wanted to ask just -- you mentioned that with HNA, it's really just business as usual at this point.

我想問的是──你提到海航集團目前一切如常。

But given the financial concerns that have been described in the press, I guess, at what point would you become more concerned about your relationship with them?

但考慮到媒體所描述的財務問題，我想，什麼時候您會更擔心與他們的關係？

And I think they've owned the shares on margin right now and is there some point where that could start to impact the relationship with you?

我認為他們現在已經以保證金持有這些股票，這是否會在某個時刻開始影響與您的關係？

Well, I'm always -- I mean, if investors are concerned, then it makes me concerned.

嗯，我總是——我的意思是，如果投資者擔心，那麼我也會擔心。

But I'm probably less concerned, not to diminish the issue, but I'm probably less concerned than investors are, simply because as it relates to the strategic opportunities, we were very clear in saying that we thought they were good strategic -- there was good strategic potential.

但我可能不太擔心，不是為了淡化這個問題，但我可能不像投資者那麼擔心，僅僅是因為它與戰略機會相關，我們非常明確地說我們認為它們是很好的戰略——具有良好的戰略潛力。

But that it wasn't like something we were building into numbers.

但這並不像我們正在建立的數字。

It was just long term.

這只是長期的。

We thought there were a bunch of things we could do together that would be beneficial, and I still think that.

我們認為我們可以一起做很多有益的事情，我仍然這麼認為。

And it wasn't like we were counting on like in our numbers this year or next year or the following year that something was going to happen.

我們並沒有像今年或明年或後年的數據那樣指望會發生什麼事情。

So there's really no -- there's no downside to that.

所以真的沒有——這沒有什麼壞處。

As it relates to their share ownership, of course, I would worry about that if I thought there was something to worry about.

因為這涉及到他們的股權，當然，如果我認為有什麼值得擔心的，我會擔心。

At the moment, I don't think there's something to worry about in the sense that they bought the position, I'm going to use round numbers, for $6.5 billion.

目前，我認為沒有什麼值得擔心的，因為他們以 65 億美元的價格購買了這個職位，我將使用整數。

Their current position in the 3 companies is worth $7.5 billion.

他們目前在這 3 家公司的持股價值為 75 億美元。

They've margined $3 billion, so there's $4.5 billion of equity.

他們的保證金為 30 億美元，因此股本為 45 億美元。

Call me old-fashioned, but that's a lot of equity and a lot of margin for error.

你可以說我很守舊，但這是很大的公平性和很大的容錯空間。

So I guess if you said to me it was much more highly leveraged or margined, then I guess it would stand to reason I should worry more.

所以我想如果你對我說它的槓桿率或保證金要高得多，那麼我想我應該要更加擔心。

But given that under their loan agreements, as I understand it, and then they're publicly filed, they're capped at $3 billion, they pledged the stock against $3 billion from 4 big, global money center banks, I think, again, it doesn't keep me up at night.

但考慮到根據他們的貸款協議，據我所知，然後公開提交，上限為 30 億美元，他們用 4 家大型全球貨幣中心銀行的 30 億美元抵押了股票，我想，再次，它不會讓我徹夜難眠。

I think everything -- that's why I say business as usual.

我認為一切都如此——這就是為什麼我說一切照舊。

They own it.

他們擁有它。

They've got a lot of margin, low leverage, a lot of margin.

他們有很多保證金，低槓桿，很多保證金。

And I think strategically, the things that we'll do are super long-term anyway, and we'll keep chugging along.

我認為從策略上講，我們要做的事情無論如何都是超長期的，我們將繼續前進。

Okay.

好的。

And can I just ask you one other quick one?

我可以再問你一個嗎？

You had mentioned earlier about maybe some of the supply in the U.S. potentially weighing on midscale and upper midscale.

您之前曾提到，美國的部分供應可能會對中檔和中高檔造成壓力。

I was just curious, I mean, do you think that this current kind of supply growth in the U.S. might peak in '18?

我只是很好奇，我的意思是，您認為美國目前的這種供應增長可能會在 18 年達到頂峰嗎？

Or do you see that continuing to build a little bit into '19 and the out years as well?

或者你認為這種情況會在 19 年及以後的幾年中繼續發展？

I think it likely peaks next year, maybe a little bit into the first half of '19.

我認為它可能會在明年達到頂峰，也許是在 19 年上半年。

Just if you look at the stats on what's going on and what's getting under construction in the U.S., I think you have -- you're past the peak in deal signings and you are sort of approaching the peak given that the financing environment has become more difficult for things getting under construction.

只要你看一下美國正在發生的事情和正在建設的事情的統計數據，我認為你已經過了交易簽署的高峰，考慮到融資環境已經變得如此，你正在接近高峰。來說更加困難。

And so I'd say you're sort of -- subject to things sort of staying as is, you're sort of into the gestation period then of delivering what's there.

所以我想說，你有點——受制於維持現狀的事物，你有點進入了交付現有內容的醞釀期。

Once that's done, the pipe isn't getting as full.

一旦完成，管道就不會那麼滿了。

Now the good news for us is our brands do disproportionately well because they're more financeable.

現在對我們來說好消息是我們的品牌做得非常好，因為它們更容易融資。

We've added new brands, I think, intelligently, at the right time and the right -- for where we are in the cycle, with Tru, and Tapestry and Curio.

我認為，我們明智地在正確的時間和正確的位置添加了新品牌——Tru、Tapestry 和 Curio。

And so we've been able to bend the arc of the curve a bit relative to what's going on in the industry.

因此，我們已經能夠相對於產業中正在發生的事情稍微彎曲曲線。

So our growth has continued to chug along.

因此，我們的成長繼續突飛猛進。

But I think it's '18, early '19, all things being equal.

但我認為現在是 18 年，19 年初，一切條件都一樣。

And ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to hand the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for his closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）作閉幕詞。

Well, thank you, everybody, for the time today.

好的，謝謝大家今天的時間。

We appreciate it.

我們很感激。

We covered a lot of territory.

我們覆蓋了很多領域。

Glad we got to all the topics on your mind.

很高興我們討論了您想到的所有主題。

We look forward to talking to you after the third quarter.

我們期待在第三季之後與您交談。

I hope everybody enjoys the end of summer.

我希望每個人都能享受夏天的結束。

Get to break to spend some time with family and friends.

休息一下，與家人和朋友共度美好時光。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。