希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Hilton Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加希爾頓 2017 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

這次，我想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Jill Slattery。

Please go ahead, ma'am.

請繼續，女士。

Thank you, Denise.

謝謝你，丹妮絲。

Welcome to Hilton's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2017 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2017 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today speak only to our expectations as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，今天發表的前瞻性聲明僅代表我們截至目前為止的預期。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些風險因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

Unless otherwise noted, comparisons to the company's fourth quarter and full year 2016 results assume that the spin-off transactions had occurred on January 1, 2016.

除非另有說明，否則與公司 2016 年第四季和全年業績的比較均假設分拆交易發生於 2016 年 1 月 1 日。

Please see our earnings release for additional details.

請參閱我們的收益發布以了解更多詳細資訊。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our fourth quarter and full year results and provide an update on our expectations for the year ahead.

我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績，並提供我們對未來一年的預期的最新資訊。

Following their remarks, we'll be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

And with that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安。

We're happy to report fourth quarter results with top line and bottom line performance exceeding the high end of our guidance.

我們很高興地報告第四季度的業績，其頂線和底線表現都超過了我們指導的上限。

As a result, our full year adjusted EBITDA and EPS also beat expectations and we returned nearly $1.1 billion or more than 5% of our average market cap to shareholders.

因此，我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 和 EPS 也超出了預期，我們向股東返還了近 11 億美元，佔平均市值的 5% 以上。

Specifically in the quarter, RevPAR grew 3.8% with all brand segments exceeding our expectations.

具體而言，本季的 RevPAR 成長了 3.8%，所有品牌細分市場都超出了我們的預期。

U.S. RevPAR increased 3.2%, largely driven by strong group and corporate transient business.

美國的 RevPAR 成長了 3.2%，這主要是由強勁的集團和企業瞬態業務推動的。

Holiday shifts and weather impacts further help results.

假期輪班和天氣影響進一步有助於結果。

We expect this momentum -- positive momentum to continue and are optimistic about the year ahead.

我們預計這種勢頭——積極的勢頭將持續下去，並對未來的一年持樂觀態度。

Looking at macro indicators, forecast call for accelerating growth in GDP, nonresidential fixed investment and corporate profits, which all bode well for continued demand growth.

從宏觀指標來看，預計GDP、非住宅固定投資和企業利潤將加速成長，這都是需求持續成長的好兆頭。

Forward group bookings trends also support continued optimism.

遠期團體預約趨勢也支持持續的樂觀情緒。

For the full year 2018, group position is up in the mid-single digits with particular strength in company meetings and nearly 80% of group business is already on the books.

2018 年全年，集團地位實現中個位數成長，尤其是在公司會議上表現強勁，近 80% 的集團業務已入帳。

Booking pace in the quarter for all future periods was up in the mid-teens, given increased demand and improved conversion.

由於需求增加和轉換率提高，本季未來所有時期的預訂速度都在十幾歲左右。

On the supply side, we think growth in 2018 will likely be at or below the long-term average.

在供應方面，我們認為 2018 年的成長可能會等於或低於長期平均值。

As a result, we're maintaining our full year RevPAR guidance of 1% to 3%, but would expect results to end up between the midpoint and the high end of the range.

因此，我們維持全年 RevPAR 指引值 1% 至 3%，但預期結果將介於該範圍的中位數和高端之間。

Additionally, we should continue to benefit from great traction on the development side of the business as we continue to outperform on share of global supply growth.

此外，隨著我們在全球供應成長中的份額繼續跑贏大市，我們應該繼續受益於業務發展方面的巨大動力。

For the full year, we expect to sign again more than 100,000 rooms and deliver net unit growth of approximately 6.5%.

全年，我們預計將再次簽約超過 100,000 間客房，並實現約 6.5% 的淨單位成長。

The strength of our brand portfolio and commercial engines are evident in our industry leading and growing RevPAR index premiums, which continue to help us drive strong unit growth.

我們的品牌組合和商業引擎的實力在我們行業領先且不斷增長的 RevPAR 指數溢價中顯而易見，這繼續幫助我們推動強勁的單位成長。

Meanwhile, the broad diversification of our pipeline helps mitigate the impacts of development cycles around the world.

同時，我們產品線的廣泛多樣化有助於減輕世界各地開發週期的影響。

In 2017, we opened more than a hotel a day.

2017年，我們每天新開多家飯店。

We also reached record approvals of roughly 108,000 rooms and record construction starts, both of which exceeded expectations.

我們還獲得了約 108,000 間客房的批准，並創下了開工記錄，這兩項都超出了預期。

In fact, we finished 2017 with the most rooms under construction in the industry, which account for 21% of rooms under construction globally.

事實上，2017 年結束時，我們的在建客房數量位居業界之首，佔全球在建客房數量的 21%。

At year-end, our pipeline totaled nearly 2,300 hotels and 345,000 rooms, representing an increase of 8% in our U.S. pipeline and 15% internationally.

截至年底，我們的在建酒店總數接近 2,300 家，客房數量達到 345,000 間，美國的在建酒店數量增加了 8%，國際酒店數量增加了 15%。

We estimate our pipeline will generate nearly $700 million of stabilized annual adjusted EBITDA.

我們估計我們的管道將產生近 7 億美元的穩定年度調整後 EBITDA。

Internationally, we're actively pursuing additional growth opportunities by expanding into new markets and introducing new brands to existing markets.

在國際上，我們正​​在透過拓展新市場並向現有市場引入新品牌來積極尋求額外的成長機會。

As a percentage of our total pipeline, the Asia Pacific region accounts for nearly 30%, EMEA accounts for roughly 20%, and Americas non-U.

占我們總管道的百分比，亞太地區約佔 30%，歐洲、中東和非洲約佔 20%，美洲非美國地區約佔 20%。

S. about 5%.

S.約5%。

In total, we have a strong international pipeline of 900 hotels and more than 180,000 rooms, including our recently signed 200 Hampton Hotel in China.

總的來說，我們擁有強大的國際酒店儲備，包括 900 家酒店和超過 180,000 間客房，其中包括我們最近在中國簽約的 200 家歡朋酒店。

For 2018, we estimate roughly 40% of our net unit growth will be located in international markets.

2018 年，我們預計約 40% 的淨銷售成長將來自國際市場。

Assuming the buildout of our entire pipeline, our international exposure increases from roughly 25% of rooms today to nearly 35%.

假設我們擴大整個管道，我們的國際曝光率將從目前約 25% 的客房增加到近 35%。

We also have a great development story in the U.S. led by conversion opportunities in our recently launched Tru brand.

我們在美國也有一個偉大的發展故事，以我們最近推出的 Tru 品牌的轉換機會為主導。

Curio, and our newest brand, Tapestry, which launched just last year, are particularly well positioned for conversion.

Curio 以及我們去年剛推出的最新品牌 Tapestry 都特別適合轉換。

Combined, these 2 brands have more than 50 hotels open and 80 in the pipeline with each brand expected to double its presence within the next 2 years.

這兩個品牌總共擁有 50 多家開業酒店和 80 家籌建酒店，每個品牌預計在未來 2 年內將其規模擴大一倍。

Following the addition of several world-class Curios, including the Hotel del Coronado and The Statler Dallas, we look forward to converting other impressive properties in the coming year with anticipated openings in cities like Washington, D.C. and Paris and resort destinations in Japan and Costa Rica.

繼包括科羅納多酒店(Hotel del Coronado) 和達拉斯斯塔特勒酒店(The Statler Dallas) 在內的幾家世界級精品酒店的加入之後，我們期待在來年改造其他令人印象深刻的酒店，預計在華盛頓特區和巴黎等城市以及日本和哥斯達黎加的度假勝地開設新酒店里卡。

We're also benefiting from the fantastic traction with our Tru brand.

我們也受益於 Tru 品牌的巨大吸引力。

Following the brand's debut in Oklahoma City last April, we opened 8 more properties in 2017, spanning the U.S. from Las Vegas, Nevada to Portland, Maine.

繼去年 4 月品牌在俄克拉荷馬城首次亮相後，我們在 2017 年又開設了 8 家酒店，覆蓋美國從內華達州拉斯維加斯到緬因州波特蘭。

We now have over 500 hotels open and in various stages of development, including sign deals for 3 hotels in Canada with the first expected to open this year, marking an exciting milestone as the first international Tru by Hilton.

目前，我們已開業並處於不同開發階段的酒店超過500 家，其中包括在加拿大簽署3 家酒店的協議，第一家酒店預計將於今年開業，這標誌著作為第一家國際Tru by Hilton 的令人興奮的里程碑。

In 2017, we added over 11 million members to our loyalty program for a total of over 71 million members at year-end, up nearly 20%, including a record number of enrollments in Asia Pacific, which doubled our membership in the region.

2017 年，我們的忠誠度計畫新增了超過1,100 萬名會員，年底會員總數超過7,100 萬，成長了近20%，其中亞太地區的註冊人數創歷史新高，使我們在該地區的會員人數增加了一倍。

To kick off 2018, we're enhancing our Hilton Honors program to give our members even more value when they stay with us.

2018 年開始，我們將加強希爾頓榮譽客會計劃，為會員在入住我們酒店時提供更多價值。

Soon we'll start rolling out new perks, especially for members of our highest tiers.

很快我們將開始推出新的福利，特別是針對我們最高等級的會員。

These benefits include gifting elite status to another member, receiving bonus points for nights beyond a certain milestone, enrolling overnights to jump-start earning status for the next year, all increasing the value and flexibility of our program.

這些福利包括向另一位會員贈送精英會員身份、在超過特定里程碑的住宿時獲得獎勵積分、註冊過夜以快速啟動明年​​的收入狀態，所有這些都增加了我們計劃的價值和靈活性。

We're also excited to share that our new portfolio of Hilton Honors American Express cobrand cards are available to our members and cardholders.

我們也很高興告訴大家，我們的會員和持卡人可以使用新的希爾頓榮譽客會美國運通聯名卡產品組合。

The new card portfolio will give our customers and small businesses even greater choices and more benefits, making these the most rewarding Honors credit cards to date.

新的信用卡組合將為我們的客戶和小型企業提供更多選擇和更多優惠，使其成為迄今為止最有價值的榮譽信用卡。

We expect these cards to drive meaningful increases in loyalty and overall card spend not only benefiting customers, but also our total system.

我們希望這些卡片能夠推動忠誠度和整體卡片支出的顯著增加，不僅使客戶受益，而且使我們的整個系統受益。

Moving on to technology.

轉向技術。

We now have digital key available in more than 350,000 hotel rooms in more than 2,500 hotels worldwide with hundreds more coming this year.

目前，我們在全球 2,500 多家酒店的 350,000 多間酒店客房中提供了數位鑰匙，今年還將新增數百家酒店。

In December, we officially debut connected room, a first of its kind high-tech room that enables guests to personalize and control every aspect of their stay from the Hilton Honors app.

12 月，我們正式推出互聯客房，這是同類高科技客房中的首個，讓賓客能夠透過希爾頓榮譽客會應用程式個性化和控制住宿的各個方面。

Trends like digital globalization, automation are, of course, changing how all of us do business.

當然，數位全球化、自動化等趨勢正在改變我們所有人的經營方式。

With all of this change, we see tremendous opportunity for us to help redefine the future of hospitality.

透過所有這些變化，我們看到了幫助重新定義酒店業未來的巨大機會。

Before I turn the call over to Kevin, I want to touch briefly on the recent tax policy changes.

在將電話轉給凱文之前，我想簡單談談最近的稅收政策變化。

Overall, we think this will be good for the broader economy, be good for the lodging industry and it will be good for Hilton and believe it will ultimately drive incremental demand and free cash flow.

總體而言，我們認為這將有利於更廣泛的經濟，有利於酒店業，也有利於希爾頓，並相信這最終將推動增量需求和自由現金流。

Consistent with our previously articulated capital allocation strategy, the bulk of our tax reform benefits will be returned to shareholders.

根據我們先前闡明的資本配置策略，我們的大部分稅改收益將返還給股東。

To finish up, we're really pleased with our performance in 2017 where we continue to lead in organic net unit growth, we delivered game-changing innovations and strong financial performance and generated significant returns for shareholders.

最後，我們對 2017 年的業績感到非常滿意，我們繼續在有機淨單位成長方面處於領先地位，我們提供了改變遊戲規則的創新和強勁的財務業績，並為股東創造了可觀的回報。

I'd be remiss in not recognizing and thanking our 380,000 team members around the world who deliver the exceptional experiences that drive this continued success.

如果我不承認並感謝我們在世界各地的 380,000 名團隊成員，那就是我的失職了，他們提供了推動我們持續成功的卓越經驗。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin to give you more details on our results and the outlook.

接下來，我將把電話轉給凱文，向您提供有關我們的結果和前景的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

In the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 3.8% versus the prior year on a currency-neutral basis, exceeding the high end of our guidance range.

本季度，在貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 與前一年相比成長了 3.8%，超出了我們指引範圍的上限。

Our results were driven by better-than-expected group and corporate transient demand, and we estimate that holiday shifts and hurricane displacement also benefited system-wide RevPAR by roughly 100 basis points.

我們的結果是由好於預期的團體和企業臨時需求推動的，我們估計假期班次和颶風位移也使整個系統的 RevPAR 受益約 100 個基點。

Adjusted EBITDA of $498 million also exceeded the high end of our guidance range, increasing 10% year-over-year.

調整後 EBITDA 為 4.98 億美元，也超出了我們指導範圍的上限，年增 10%。

Results benefited from better-than-expected performance across the board with solid RevPAR flow-through and greater corporate cost control.

業績得益於全面優於預期的業績、穩定的每間可用收入（RevPAR）流通和更好的企業成本控制。

We estimate roughly $15 million of the beat versus the midpoint of guidance came from onetime items that we do not expect to repeat this year.

我們估計，與指導中位數相比，大約有 1500 萬美元來自我們預計今年不會重複的一次性項目。

In the quarter, management franchise fees grew 13% to $486 million, well ahead of our 8% to 10% guidance range.

本季度，管理特許經營費成長 13% 至 4.86 億美元，遠高於我們 8% 至 10% 的指導範圍。

In addition to strong RevPAR, growth in license and application fees outpaced our expectations.

除了強勁的 RevPAR 之外，許可證和申請費的成長也超出了我們的預期。

Our owned and leased portfolio also posted better-than-expected performance, given increase transient business across Europe and healthy group demand in Japan.

鑑於歐洲短暫業務的增加以及日本健康的集團需求，我們的自有和租賃投資組合的表現也比預期好。

As a result, diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items of $0.54 also beat expectations.

因此，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.54 美元，也超出了預期。

Turning to our regional performance and outlook.

轉向我們的區域業績和前景。

Fourth quarter comparable U.S. RevPAR grew 3.2%, meaningfully higher than our expectations given solid corporate transient and group performance coupled with the benefits from holiday shifts and weather, which boosted U.S. RevPAR growth by an estimated 140 basis points in the quarter.

第四季美國可比 RevPAR 成長了 3.2%，顯著高於我們的預期，因為企業瞬態和集團業績穩健，加上假期班次和天氣的好處，預計本季美國 RevPAR 成長約 140 個基點。

For full year 2018, we forecast U.S. RevPAR growth around the midpoint of our 1% to 3% system-wide range.

對於 2018 年全年，我們預測美國 RevPAR 成長約為全系統範圍 1% 至 3% 的中點。

In the Americas outside the U.S., fourth quarter RevPAR grew a solid 6.2% versus the prior year due to strong leisure demand in Canada and hurricane-related businesses in Puerto Rico.

在美國以外的美洲地區，由於加拿大休閒需求強勁以及波多黎各颶風相關業務，第四季每間可用客房收入較上年同期穩定成長 6.2%。

For full year 2018, we expect RevPAR growth in the region at the high end of our guidance range.

對於 2018 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到我們指導範圍的高端。

RevPAR growth in Europe grew 3.9% in the quarter, driven by a rebounding demand in Turkey partially offset by softness in London.

本季歐洲每間可用客房營收 (RevPAR) 成長 3.9%，其推動因素是土耳其需求反彈，但部分被倫敦需求疲軟所抵銷。

We expect full year 2018 RevPAR growth in Europe to be at to slightly above the high end of our range.

我們預計歐洲 2018 年全年 RevPAR 成長將略高於我們範圍的高端。

In the Middle East and Africa region, RevPAR growth was up 6.1%, in line with our expectations as continued strength in Egypt offset softer demand in Saudi Arabia given political instability and Visa restrictions.

在中東和非洲地區，每間可用客房收入成長 6.1%，符合我們的預期，因為埃及的持續強勁抵消了沙烏地阿拉伯因政治不穩定和簽證限製而導致的需求疲軟。

For full year 2018, we expect RevPAR growth in the region to be at the higher end of our guidance range.

2018 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將處於我們指導範圍的高端。

In the Asia Pacific region, RevPAR increased 7.6% in the quarter, led by China where RevPAR grew 9% helped by ramping hotels.

在亞太地區，本季的 RevPAR 成長了 7.6%，其中以中國為首，在飯店數量增加的幫助下，RevPAR 成長了 9%。

We expect the country to continue benefiting from occupancy upticks as both transient and group segments improve.

我們預計，隨著短期和團體市場的改善，該國將繼續受益於入住率上升。

For full year 2018, we expect RevPAR for the Asia Pacific region to grow in the mid-single digits with RevPAR growth in China of 6% to 7%.

2018 年全年，我們預計亞太地區的 RevPAR 將實現中個位數成長，其中中國的 RevPAR 將成長 6% 至 7%。

Moving on to guidance.

繼續指導。

For full year 2018, we expect RevPAR growth of 1% to 3% and assume international markets will continue to outperform the U.S. We expect adjusted EBITDA of $2.03 billion to $2.08 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 8% at the midpoint.

對於 2018 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將成長 1% 至 3%，並假設國際市場將繼續跑贏美國。

We forecast diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $2.49 to $2.60.

我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 2.49 美元至 2.60 美元。

For the first quarter, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth of 1% to 3%, including a 100 basis point drag from the Easter calendar shift.

對於第一季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 將成長 1% 至 3%，其中包括復活節日曆變化帶來的 100 個基點拖累。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $410 million to $430 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.43 to $0.47.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.1 億至 4.3 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.43 至 0.47 美元。

Please note that our guidance ranges do not incorporate incremental share repurchases and include our adoption of the new revenue recognition accounting standard.

請注意，我們的指導範圍不包括增量股票回購，並包括我們採用新的收入確認會計準則。

The new standard will affect the way we recognize revenues.

新準則將影響我們確認收入的方式。

There will be changes to several line items across the P&L, but the most meaningful will be the deferral of upfront fees.

損益表中的幾個項目將會發生變化，但最有意義的是預付費用的延期。

Going forward, we will recognize upfront fees over the life of the contract instead of at the time we execute the contract.

展望未來，我們將在合約有效期限內而不是在執行合約時確認預付費用。

Importantly, the accounting changes do not affect cash flow or cash available for capital return, but we estimate that it would lower 2017 reported adjusted EBITDA by $55 million to $60 million and expect a similar reduction to our 2018 adjusted EBITDA.

重要的是，會計變更不會影響現金流量或可用於資本回報的現金，但我們估計，這將使2017 年報告的調整後EBITDA 降低5,500 萬美元至6,000 萬美元，並預計與2018 年調整後EBITDA類似的減少。

Moving on to capital return.

轉向資本回報。

We paid a cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the fourth quarter for a total of $195 million in dividends and $1.1 billion in total capital return during 2017.

我們在第四季度支付了每股 0.15 美元的現金股息，2017 年股息總額為 1.95 億美元，資本回報總額為 11 億美元。

Our board also authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share in the first quarter.

我們的董事會也授權第一季派發每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

For 2018, inclusive of cash tax savings of $125 million to $150 million, we expect to return between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion to shareholders or roughly 5% to 6% of our market cap in the form of buybacks and dividends.

2018 年，包括 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元的現金稅節省在內，我們預計將以回購和股息的形式向股東返還 12 億至 16 億美元，或約占我們市值的 5% 至 6%。

We expect quarterly dividends to remain at the same level as 2017.

我們預計季度股息將保持與 2017 年相同水準。

Further details on our fourth quarter and full year results as well as our latest guidance ranges can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第四季度和全年業績以及最新指導範圍的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Denise, can we have our first question, please?

（操作員指示）丹尼斯，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Your first question this morning will come from Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）今天早上您的第一個問題將來自德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利（Carlo Santarelli）。

I have a 2-part question, both aspects of it I would say are related to tax reform to an extent.

我有一個由兩部分組成的問題，我想說它的兩個面向都在某種程度上與稅改有關。

But if you guys could comment on kind of post tax reform, what you've seen with respect to the business transient corporate negotiated rate discussions as well as any impact on your discussions with developers for the implications that would have for them on future developments.

但是，如果你們能評論一下稅後改革的類型，你們所看到的關於企業臨時企業協商利率討論的內容，以及你們與開發商的討論對他們未來發展的影響。

Yes, Carlo, I'll take that.

是的，卡洛，我會接受的。

And Kevin, you can jump in with whatever you might want to add.

凱文，你可以加入任何你想添加的內容。

I'd say, obviously, got done at the very end of last year, so it's still reasonably early to begin to judge it.

我想說，顯然，去年年底就完成了，所以現在開始判斷還為時過早。

But I'd say sort of anecdotally, having talked to a bunch of our customers and been at a bunch of different events where we host large numbers of them, it's viewed as very positive.

但我想說的是，在與我們的一些客戶交談並參加了我們接待大量客戶的一系列不同活動後，這被認為是非常積極的。

Most of -- if I think about where we are this year and the conversations I was having versus where we were last year, I would say it is a very, very different tone, much more positive.

大多數情況下——如果我想想我們今年的處境以及我與去年相比進行的對話，我會說這是一種非常非常不同的基調，更加積極。

I think that's being driven -- to your question by tax reform, I think it's also being driven certainly in the U.S. by the regulatory environment being easier on companies.

我認為這是由稅改推動的——對於你的問題，我認為這在美國也肯定是由對公司更寬鬆的監管環境所推動的。

So I'd say broadly as it relates to business transient, I would say there's reasons to be optimistic.

因此，我想說，由於它與業務瞬態相關，因此我認為有理由保持樂觀。

We started to see that show up in numbers at the end of last year.

去年年底我們開始看到這種情況出現在數字上。

I think we've seen that continue into this year.

我認為我們已經看到這種情況持續到今年。

I would say it's still early days in the sense that it's not consistently better.

我想說，現在還處於早期階段，因為它並沒有一直更好。

It's been a bit choppy, but my expectation is if forecasts are right that this is going to help move GDP growth up a little bit.

雖然有點波動，但我的預期是，如果預測正確，這將有助於推動 GDP 成長一點。

And given the optimism that I'm sensing from a lot of our big customers and broadly across a bunch of different industries, that it's going to help drive better corporate transient growth than we had last year, which, as you will recall looking at the numbers, was very anemic.

鑑於我從我們的許多大客戶以及廣泛的不同行業中感受到的樂觀情緒，這將有助於推動比去年更好的企業短暫增長，正如您所記得的那樣數字，非常貧血。

So I think tax reform -- I think everything going on right now globally in terms of global growth, picking up a little bit of steam and certainly in U.S. with expectations of growth picking up as a result of tax reform and regulatory change are going to be good.

因此，我認為稅收改革——我認為目前全球在全球經濟成長方面正在發生的一切都將有所增加，當然在美國，由於稅收改革和監管變革，人們對經濟成長的預期將會加快。 。

In terms of our development community, I think, again, it's early days.

就我們的開發社群而言，我認為現在還處於早期階段。

I'd say it's hard to find somebody that's not -- that is in business that's not more optimistic right now than they might have been a year ago or even, for that matter, 6 months ago.

我想說，很難找到一個人，他們現在的業務並不比一年前，甚至六個月前更樂觀。

And given that our development community are eternal optimists, they were reasonably optimistic before, they're even more optimistic now.

鑑於我們的開發社群是永遠的樂觀主義者，他們以前相當樂觀，現在更加樂觀。

So I'd say that all bodes well for what's going on, on the development side.

所以我想說，對於開發方面正在發生的事情來說，一切都是好兆頭。

Having said that, what's going on in the lending environment is I'd say that's stable.

話雖如此，我想說貸款環境是穩定的。

You had a lot of tightening going on in the development environment throughout last year.

去年，開發環境發生了很大的收緊。

If you look at the fourth quarter, that started to really stabilize.

如果你看看第四季度，你會發現情況開始真正穩定下來。

Whether more financing availability comes to the market as a consequence of a rebound in the economy, I think time will tell.

我認為時間會證明經濟反彈是否會導致市場出現更多融資。

We haven't seen that yet, but time will tell.

我們還沒有看到這一點，但時間會證明一切。

But I'd say broadly, the business community, including our development community, are more optimistic because I think, they think the changes that have been going on over the last few quarters are going to ultimately drive broader growth in the economy -- growth will pick up in the economy and it's going to translate into more demand growth for hotel rooms, which I think stands to reason.

但我想說的是，商業界，包括我們的發展界，更加樂觀，因為我認為，他們認為過去幾季發生的變化將最終推動經濟更廣泛的成長——成長經濟將會復甦，這將轉化為酒店客房的更多需求增長，我認為這是有道理的。

Great.

偉大的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And Kevin, just a clarification.

凱文，請澄清一下。

You said the cash tax impact $125 million to $150 million, correct?

您說現金稅影響 1.25 億至 1.5 億美元，對嗎？

Yes, that's right, Carlo.

是的，沒錯，卡洛。

The next question will be from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

下一個問題將由巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯提出。

So Chris, following tax reform, a pickup in corporate transient travel, which you've talked about, possibly supported by your prepared remarks, there's been optimism by some in the investment community that U.S. RevPAR growth could exceed 3% this year, again for the industry.

因此，克里斯，在稅收改革之後，您已經談到了企業短暫旅行的增加，這可能得到您準備好的言論的支持，投資界的一些人對美國今年的RevPAR 增長可能再次超過3% 持樂觀態度。

You're guiding to about 2% for Hilton.

您對希爾頓的指導價約為 2%。

So just maybe wondering, first, if you agree with this bullish view.

因此，首先，您可能想知道您是否同意這種看漲觀點。

So if you had to put out like a bull case on U.S. RevPAR growth for the industry for '18, what would it be and why?

因此，如果您必須對 18 年美國該行業的 RevPAR 成長做出樂觀的預測，那麼會是什麼以及為什麼？

And maybe you could just talk a little bit about the implied U.S. RevPAR guidance that's out there now.

也許您可以簡單談談目前隱含的美國 RevPAR 指南。

Yes, great question.

是的，很好的問題。

I think it's the question.

我想這就是問題所在。

First of all, I think technically, Felicia, if you go back and listen to my comments, we really guided to 2.5%, in the sense that we're not moving the 1% to 3%, but I said the likely outcome would be from the mid to the high, so I would sort of view that as 2.5%.

首先，我認為從技術上講，Felicia，如果你回去聽聽我的評論，我們確實指導到2.5%，從某種意義上說，我們不會將1% 移動到3%，但我說可能的結果是從中到高，所以我認為是 2.5%。

And that is consistent, pretty much identical, to what we delivered in 2017.

這與我們 2017 年交付的內容一致，幾乎相同。

And so if you take the bull case and remember, everybody that knows me knows I'm an optimist by nature, but I think there are reasons to be optimistic right now.

因此，如果你考慮牛市的情況並記住，每個認識我的人都知道我本質上是一個樂觀主義者，但我認為現在有理由保持樂觀。

I think if you take the bull case, it would sort of be the following: You delivered 2.5% last year in an environment where group was sort of relatively weak.

我認為，如果你採取牛市的情況，情況會是這樣的：去年，在集團相對疲軟的環境下，你實現了 2.5% 的成長。

Leisure transient, relatively strong.

閒暇短暫，比較濃厚。

Business transient, sort of relatively weak.

業務短暫，相對較弱。

And you had a big -- a bunch of help from the international markets, which were very strong, that delivered 2.5%.

國際市場提供了很大的幫助，非常強勁，實現了 2.5% 的成長。

You fast forward to 2018, I think international markets, by the way, is sort of, take that off the table, are going to be strong again.

快進到 2018 年，順便說一下，我認為國際市場將再次走強。

Our estimation is there -- between Europe and APAC, well, they will be both better than what we think the U.S. will deliver.

我們的估計是——在歐洲和亞太地區之間，它們都會比我們認為美國會提供的更好。

They won't be quite as robust.

它們不會那麼強大。

They're still going to be really good.

他們仍然會表現得非常好。

Won't be quite as robust as last year, so maybe that creates a teeny bit of drag.

不會像去年那麼強勁，所以這可能會產生一點阻力。

But then more -- I think potentially more than offsetting that for the bull case would be leisure transient looks to be sort of good again, right?

但更多的是——我認為，對於牛市來說，短暫的休閒看起來可能會再次變得不錯，對吧？

You have consumer confidence, if anything, picking up, not declining.

消費者信心（如果有的話）正在回升，而不是下降。

So you would argue that, that's a good leading indicator of what's going to happen with leisure transient.

所以你可能會說，這是一個很好的領先指標，顯示休閒短暫性將會發生什麼。

We talked about business transient.

我們談論了業務瞬態。

While it's early and it's a bit choppy, if the economy really is doing what we think and most people think it is doing, that will lead to, I think, a little bit better result in business transient than we got last year.

雖然現在還為時過早，而且有點波動，但如果經濟確實按照我們的想法和大多數人的想法進行，我認為，這將導致商業瞬態的結果比去年好一些。

And group, if it plays out as sort of set up for the year where we're at a mid-single-digit system-wide position with pretty good momentum, it should be better than what was a relatively weak year in group last year.

集團，如果今年我們處於全系統中個位數的位置，勢頭相當不錯，那麼它應該比去年集團相對疲軟的一年更好。

You aggregate that altogether and I think you could certainly conclude that we should do better than last year, which was 2.5%.

如果你把這些綜合起來，我想你肯定可以得出這樣的結論：我們應該比去年做得更好，去年是 2.5%。

And so that would be the bull case.

這就是牛市的情況。

And you would say, legitimately, "So why aren't you giving us the bull case in your outlook?" And the reason that we're not is real simple.

你會理直氣壯地說：“那你為什麼不向我們提供你的前景中樂觀的情況呢？”我們不這麼做的原因很簡單。

It's February.

現在是二月。

There's a lot of year to play out and we want to sort of see these things.

還有很長一段時間要進行，我們希望看到這些事情。

We want to make sure -- we're very optimistic, confident about group, but we want to see it play out.

我們想確保——我們對團隊非常樂觀和有信心，但我們希望看到它發揮作用。

I mean, as we said, 80% of it's on the books, but we want to see it play out.

我的意思是，正如我們所說，80% 的內容都寫在書本上，但我們希望看到它得以實現。

And importantly, we want to continue to see firming up on the business transient side.

重要的是，我們希望繼續看到業務瞬態的堅挺。

If those things happen throughout the year, I think you'll see us sort of adjust our expectations.

如果這些事情全年發生，我想你會看到我們調整我們的期望。

But given it's our first call, it's early in the year.

但鑑於這是我們的第一次電話，現在是今年年初。

We thought being sort of down the middle at this point was the right place to be.

我們認為此時處於中間位置是正確的位置。

The next question will come from Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。

Chris, you started off the call by talking about particular strength in company group meetings or corporate group meetings.

克里斯，您在電話會議開始時談到了公司小組會議或公司小組會議中的特殊優勢。

Can you talk about how much of a leading or maybe coincident indicator that is for individual corporate transient travel, at least in the past?

您能否談談至少在過去，個人企業短暫旅行的領先指標或同步指標有多少？

Yes, in the past, Joe, I would say that the group is typically a lagging indicator.

是的，喬，在過去，我會說該群體通常是一個滯後指標。

And so it is a little bit of an anomaly that you're seeing it pick up.

所以你看到它的成長有點反常。

Well, I would say that's the way it usually works.

嗯，我想說這就是通常的運作方式。

We did see a pickup.

我們確實看到了一輛皮卡。

At the same time we saw our corporate group pick up, we saw corporate transient pick up.

同時，我們看到我們的企業集團有所回升，我們看到企業瞬態有所回升。

So in that way, they're happening at the same time.

所以這樣一來，它們就同時發生了。

But I'd say corporate group is a bit ahead of it and more -- the pickup is more stable.

但我想說的是，企業集團有點領先，而且更領先——皮卡更加穩定。

Corporate transient pickup has been a little choppier.

企業的短暫回升有點不穩定。

But nonetheless, I think the trend line is headed in a good direction.

但儘管如此，我認為趨勢線正朝著好的方向發展。

And I can't honestly -- I look at again, I can't explain why it's a little bit different this time other than the fact that I think in corporate, I still think in corporate group, the industry is running at such high occupancy levels overall that people -- the corporate procurement offices are figuring out if they don't get ahead of it a little bit, they're not going to be able to have their meetings, where on the transient side, I think there's still a belief that it can be a little bit more last minute.

老實說，我再看一遍，我無法解釋為什麼這次有點不同，除了我認為在企業中，我仍然認為在企業集團中，該行業正在以如此高的速度運行總體入住率水平，人們——企業採購辦公室正在考慮，如果他們不提前一點，他們將無法舉行會議，在短暫的方面，我認為仍然存在相信最後一刻可以多做一點。

I think that's probably the -- what's driving what I would say is not a major anomaly, but a little bit of an anomaly where they're either coincident or they flipped around a little bit in terms of what's leading and what's lagging.

我認為這可能是——我所說的驅動因素不是重大異常，而是一點點異常，它們要么是重合的，要么是在領先和落後方面略有翻轉。

The next question will come from Harry Curtis of Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題將來自 Nomura Instinet 的 Harry Curtis。

Could you -- if you could touch on what your leverage ratio ended the year at, your net debt leverage ratio and the math that you were using to get to the $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion and basically ending up at kind of the middle of the 3x to 3.5x leverage ratio target?

你能否——如果你能談談你的槓桿率在今年年底是多少，你的淨債務槓桿率以及你用來達到12億至16億美元並且基本上最終達到中間值的數學方法嗎？倍至3.5倍槓桿率目標？

Yes, Harry.

是的，哈利。

We ended the year at about 3.1, the very low 3s.

我們年底的成績約為 3.1，非常低的 3。

And our $1.2 billion to $1.6 billion total capital return assumes, call it 3x to 3.25x leverage in that range.

我們假設總資本報酬率為 12 億美元至 16 億美元，在該範圍內的槓桿率為 3 倍至 3.25 倍。

Okay, so that was such a short question and answer, I think I get part b.

好吧，這是一個簡短的問答，我想我明白了 b 部分。

Breaking the rules, Harry.

違反規則，哈利。

I know, I'm sorry.

我知道，對不起。

Can you just talk about the impact of higher interest rates or the potential impact on higher rates on your construction or development pipeline?

您能否談談利率上升的影響或利率上升對您的建設或開發管道的潛在影響？

And whether or not it's been locked in for the next couple of years?

未來幾年是否會被鎖定？

Yes, it's a good question, Harry.

是的，這是個好問題，哈利。

You sort of partially answered it yourself.

你自己已經部分回答了。

I mean, the next couple of years is -- the way this construction cycle plays out, the next couple of years is pretty well locked in.

我的意思是，接下來的幾年——按照這個建設週期的展開方式，接下來的幾年已經被很好地鎖定了。

And then in terms of longer term than that, if rates continue to go up, that's probably going to mean the economy is getting better.

從長遠來看，如果利率繼續上升，這可能意味著經濟正在好轉。

And as Chris said, our developers are an optimistic bunch.

正如克里斯所說，我們的開發人員是一群樂觀的人。

And so even though the capital might get a little bit expensive, what their underwriting gets looks a little bit better on paper.

因此，儘管資本可能會有點貴，但他們的承保在紙面上看起來會更好一些。

So probably definitely not a big short-term impact and probably doesn't really have that big of a long-term impact either.

因此，短期影響肯定不會很大，長期影響也可能不會很大。

The next question will come from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）提出。

You mentioned the addition of 11 million members to total, I think it was 71 million at year-end for the loyalty program.

您提到忠誠度計畫的會員總數增加了 1,100 萬，我認為年底會員數為 7,100 萬。

Can you talk to how engagement within your loyalty base is potentially changing?

您能談談您的忠誠度基礎中的參與度可能會發生怎樣的變化嗎？

And maybe provide an update on your direct booking efforts and how that may be growing and changing consumer behavior?

也許可以提供有關您的直接預訂工作的最新資訊以及這可能如何成長和改變消費者行為？

Yes, I'd say engagement is up pretty materially.

是的，我想說，參與度有了很大的提升。

I don't have the percentage sitting in front of me.

我面前沒有百分比。

But clearly, we have the percentage of active members is up pretty materially year-over-year.

但顯然，我們的活躍會員比例較去年同期大幅上升。

And not surprising, related to the second part of your question, we've been working very hard on strategies that have more direct relationships with customers, which I know sometimes can get interpreted as like a marketing campaign like Stop Clicking Around or whatever.

毫不奇怪，與您問題的第二部分相關，我們一直在努力製定與客戶建立更直接關係的策略，我知道有時可以將其解釋為像「停止點擊」之類的行銷活動。

But it has -- obviously, it is a much more complex and holistic approach, which has to do with making sure what we're doing with product, what we're doing with service, importantly, what we're doing with technology, what we're doing with very specific parts of the Honors program to drive more -- not only deeper engagement, but more frequent engagement with customers is all, I would say, working in getting more people in the program, a higher percentage of them engaged and more of them booking directly with us.

但顯然，這是一種更複雜和全面的方法，這與確保我們在產品方面所做的事情、我們在服務方面所做的事情、重要的是我們在技術方面所做的事情有關，我們對榮譽計劃的具體部分所做的事情是為了推動更多——不僅是更深入的參與，而且是與客戶更頻繁的接觸，我想說的是，努力讓更多的人參與該計劃，其中的比例更高參與其中，更多人直接向我們預訂。

We know that once they come into the program, the vast majority, 90-plus -- I think it's 95%, close to 95% of customers, when they become an Honors member, start booking directly through us, which is obviously a much more efficient channel.

我們知道，一旦他們加入該計劃，絕大多數，90 歲以上——我認為是95%，接近95% 的客戶，當他們成為榮譽會員時，開始直接透過我們預訂，這顯然是一個很大的進步。

And so I think we're having really good success.

所以我認為我們取得了非常好的成功。

But as I've said on lots of prior calls, this is going to be something we'll be talking about forever and as I said, it's a very comprehensive approach to having deeper, more frequent engagement with customers.

但正如我在之前的許多電話中所說，這將是我們將永遠討論的事情，正如我所說，這是一種與客戶進行更深入、更頻繁互動的非常全面的方法。

Maybe as a quick follow-up.

也許作為快速跟進。

What percentage of bookings are going through your mobile app at this point?

目前透過您的行動應用程式預訂的百分比是多少？

It's about 10% and growing.

大約為 10%，並且還在增長。

10%, and that's about 1/3 -- close to 1/3 are web -- either Web Direct or mobile.

10%，大約有 1/3——接近 1/3 是網路——無論是網路直接還是行動。

So make sure we add that, you've got to add the web in that.

因此，請確保我們添加該內容，您必須在其中添加網路。

The next question will be from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出。

So Chris, I think you alluded to this a little bit in your answer to Harry's question, but just kind of -- just going back to the supply growth side.

所以克里斯，我認為你在回答哈利的問題時稍微提到了這一點，但只是回到了供應增長方面。

One change that we're noticing as we move through 2017 is that supply growth for the industry overall is starting to peak out.

進入 2017 年，我們注意到的一個變化是整個產業的供應成長開始見頂。

And so my question is just how long do you guys think you can maintain sort of where you're at on that very significant 6.5% kind of net unit growth?

所以我的問題是，你們認為你們能維持 6.5% 的淨單位成長率多久？

And is there, maybe over the next 2 to 3 years, are we going to see some shift where you're going to move from a little bit of the majority of that or the slight majority of that coming from domestic, is that going to shift to international?

也許在接下來的 2 到 3 年裡，我們是否會看到一些轉變，其中大部分或微弱的大部分來自國內？

Or what are some of the puts and takes as we get out in 2019, 2020 to maintain the growth rates that you're seeing?

或者我們在 2019 年和 2020 年退出時會採取哪些看跌期權和看跌期權來維持您所看到的增長率？

I mean, clearly, to your comment or question, Shaun, the U.S. is sort of past its peak.

肖恩，我的意思是，顯然，對於你的評論或問題，美國已經過了巔峰。

Now we've extended it, the peak in the U.S. because of the success we're having with conversions in, particularly, Tru.

現在我們已經延長了它在美國的峰值，因為我們在轉換方面取得了成功，特別是在 Tru。

But I think either in '16 or '17, that's where you saw the peak in deal signings in the U.S. for the industry.

但我認為，無論是在 16 年還是 17 年，美國該行業的交易簽約都達到了頂峰。

Having said that, for us, we extended it.

話雖如此，對於我們來說，我們延長了它。

And in terms of delivering 6% to 7% NUG over the next few years, I would say I feel really good about it.

就未來幾年交付 6% 到 7% NUG 而言，我想說我對此感覺非常好。

I mean, not only is it a big world where we have lots of opportunities around the world.

我的意思是，這不僅是一個廣闊的世界，我們在世界各地都有很多機會。

And clearly, as the U.S. has slowed down a bit, you've seen the international side pickup.

顯然，隨著美國經濟放緩一點，你已經看到國際方面的回升。

We were in the low 30s in terms of representation on international in NUG in '17.

17 年，我們在 NUG 的國際代表人數處於 30 多歲左右。

We're going to be probably in the low 40s, 40 or low 40s in '18, I would tell you that trend line will continue both because of not just what's going on in the U.S. but the success we're having in the opportunities we have offshore are only growing.

18 年我們可能會處於 40 多歲、40 多歲或 40 多歲以下，我告訴你，趨勢線將繼續下去，不僅因為美國正在發生的事情，還因為我們在機會方面取得的成功我們的離岸業務只會不斷成長。

So it's a big world.

所以這是一個很大的世界。

It doesn't all move in lockstep.

一切並不是步調一致。

And I think if we do our job, which I think we've proven we've been able to do for a decade and being thoughtful about how we layer existing brands in various markets, add new brands to some of our existing markets like Tru that we're going to be able to keep that growth growing.

我認為，如果我們做好我們的工作，我認為我們已經證明我們十年來能夠做到這一點，並考慮如何在各個市場中對現有品牌進行分層，向我們的一些現有市場添加新品牌，例如Tru我們將能夠保持這種增長。

Now here's the other thing over -- when you look 4, 5, 6 years, a lot of things can happen in the world.

現在，另一件事結束了——當你展望 4 年、5 年、6 年時，世界上可能會發生很多事情。

I mean, if we do our job, we're going to keep growing at a better pace.

我的意思是，如果我們做好我們的工作，我們就會以更好的速度繼續成長。

As you look at the next 2 or 3, I'm not going to say nothing fully in the bag, but half of our pipeline is under construction, okay?

當你看到接下來的 2 或 3 個項目時，我不會說任何事情都已經完成，但我們一半的管道正在建設中，好嗎？

So that's 160,000, 170,000 rooms are under construction right now.

所以現在有 160,000、170,000 個房間正在建設中。

If you add up what we're going to deliver over the next 2 or 3 years, right, those numbers aren't that far off.

如果你把我們在未來兩三年內要交付的產品加起來，對吧，這些數字並不是那麼遙遠。

And you add a spattering of 20% to 30% conversions into that number, which we think we have consistently delivered at that level or above.

你在這個數字中添加了 20% 到 30% 的轉化，我們認為我們一直在這個水平或更高的水平上實現。

And I think I would say to you, we feel confident that what we laid out at our Analyst Day over a year ago of being in that 6 to 7 range over the next few years is readily achievable.

我想我會對你們說，我們相信一年多前我們在分析師日所製定的未來幾年在 6 到 7 範圍內的目標是很容易實現的。

And I would argue sort of a lot of it is already in gestation.

我認為其中很多已經在醞釀中。

Great.

偉大的。

And maybe just one clarification, Chris.

也許只是一個澄清，克里斯。

The 20% to 30% conversion, is that the annual rate?

20%到30%的轉換率，是年率嗎？

So they're kind of the annual number that you're -- of the deliveries that you're receiving?

那麼它們是您每年收到的交貨數量？

Or is it that much actually coming out of conversion rate?

或者轉換率真的有那麼大嗎？

If you average it, every year is a little different.

如果你平均的話，每年都會有一點不同。

Just things cycle through depending on deals and things we're working on.

只是事情會根據交易和我們正在處理的事情而循環。

But if you look at it over the last 5 or 6 years, it's averaged in that range.

但如果你看看過去五、六年的情況，你會發現它的平均值在這個範圍內。

My guess is -- so yes, I'm confident we'll continue to deliver in that range, particularly with having newer brands, Curio being newer, Tapestry being very new.

我的猜測是——所以是的，我相信我們將繼續在這個範圍內提供服務，特別是擁有更新的品牌，Curio 更新，Tapestry 非常新。

We're -- we've talked a bunch about what we're thinking about doing in the development of our third soft brand, which is in the luxury space.

我們已經討論了很多關於我們在開發第三個軟品牌（奢侈品領域）時正在考慮要做的事情。

That's not too far off, so that will be another conversion brand opportunity.

這並不是太遙遠的事情，所以這將是另一個品牌轉換的機會。

And then Doubletree continues to be a fantastic brand for conversion opportunities and we've had great success there.

然後，逸林仍然是一個提供轉換機會的絕佳品牌，我們在那裡取得了巨大的成功。

So I think we can definitely deliver in that 20% to 30% range.

所以我認為我們絕對可以在 20% 到 30% 的範圍內實現目標。

You add that to what is already under construction around the world.

您可以將其添加到世界各地已經在建造的項目中。

And again, it takes a lot.

再說一遍，這需要很多。

I don't want to minimize the hard work as our team listens to these calls and they're thinking, "We got 3 years of really hard work, boss," to do all this stuff, and they do.

我不想貶低我們的辛苦工作，因為我們的團隊聽到這些電話，他們在想，「老闆，我們花了 3 年的努力工作」來完成所有這些事情，而他們確實做到了。

But the reality is we've got good momentum.

但現實是我們勢頭良好。

And if we do our jobs, we can deliver that growth.

如果我們做好我們的工作，我們就能實現這種成長。

The next question will be from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫提出。

It's been about, I think, it's around 6 months since you announced your credit card agreements.

我想，自從你們宣布信用卡協議以來，已經過了大約 6 個月的時間。

What has kind of been the biggest surprises to date?

迄今為止最大的驚喜是什麼？

And how are you thinking about it going forward?

您對未來有何看法？

Yes, Thomas, I don't think -- it's funny, I don't think there have been too many surprises to date in terms of -- we've laid out what we thought the incremental economics were going to be.

是的，托馬斯，我不認為——這很有趣，我認為迄今為止並沒有太多的驚喜——我們已經闡述了我們認為增量經濟學將會是什麼。

And so far, those have been, frankly, maybe even a little bit better, but generally consistent with what we've seen.

坦白說，到目前為止，這些甚至可能更好一點，但總體上與我們所看到的一致。

The new cards just launched, and so it's early days.

新卡剛推出，所以還處於早期階段。

And in terms of economic outcomes, it's probably too early to opine.

就經濟成果而言，現在下結論可能還為時過早。

But so far, consumers are receiving the cards really well and we're getting great feedback.

但到目前為止，消費者收到這些卡片的情況非常好，我們也得到了很好的回饋。

So we're excited about the program, but so far, I wouldn't say there have been any surprises.

所以我們對這個計劃感到很興奮，但到目前為止，我不會說有任何驚喜。

Okay.

好的。

And if I could just ask a quick clarification question.

如果我能問一個快速澄清的問題。

What was group RevPAR in 2017?

2017 年的團體 RevPAR 是多少？

You're talking about kind of mid-single-digit for 2018 ...

你說的是 2018 年的中個位數...

In '17, it was up 1.6%.

17 年增長了 1.6%。

System-wide, it was up 1.6%, right now system-wide position is up 5% mid-single digits, 5 and change.

全系統上漲了 1.6%，目前全系統部位上漲了 5%，中間個位數，5 並發生變化。

The next question will be from Robin Farley of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

Maybe I'll pretend my 2 questions are also just 1 question.

也許我會假裝我的 2 個問題也只是 1 個問題。

Now people are getting really good at this.

現在人們在這方面變得非常擅長。

So first is just on your fee growth guidance of 8% to 10%.

首先是 8% 到 10% 的費用成長指引。

It seems like you can get there just from the unit growth you've talked about and from your RevPAR guidance.

看來您只需透過您所討論的單位成長和 RevPAR 指導就可以實現這一目標。

So wouldn't it -- can it potentially be a higher growth rate given your non-RevPAR fees in there as well?

那麼，考慮到您的非 RevPAR 費用，它是否可能有更高的成長率？

And then my other question is on a different topic is, just if you've had any conversations or just have any thoughts about one of your large shareholders that has been talked about maybe revisiting some of their investments and whether you have any color from them or thoughts on what they might do with their stake.

然後我的另一個問題是關於另一個主題的是，如果您有過任何談話或只是對您的一位大股東有任何想法，我們已經討論過可能會重新審視他們的一些投資，以及您是否從他們那裡得到了任何意見或關於他們可能如何處理自己的股份的想法。

Thanks, Robin.

謝謝，羅賓。

I'll take your 2 questions one at a time.

我會一次回答你的兩個問題。

The fee -- as to the fee growth guidance, I think what you're alluding to is our algorithm of RevPAR plus NUG, if you think about what Chris has said about RevPAR at 2.5% and NUG at 6.5%.

費用－至於費用成長指導，我認為您指的是我們的 RevPAR 加 NUG 演算法，如果您考慮 Chris 所說的 RevPAR 為 2.5% 和 NUG 為 6.5%。

That gets you to 9%, which is the midpoint of our fee guidance.

這將使您達到 9%，這是我們費用指導的中點。

As we've talked about, license fees are growing ahead of that algorithm rate, but you also have some of the fees in there, the non-RevPAR driven fees like change of ownership and app fees that are growing a little bit below the algorithm rate.

正如我們所討論的，許可費用的增長速度超過了演算法速度，但其中也有一些費用，非 RevPAR 驅動的費用，例如所有權變更和應用程式費用，其增長速度略低於演算法速度速度。

So that's sort of -- 8% to 10% is a wide range and that sort of plays out.

所以，8% 到 10% 是一個很大的範圍，而且是這樣的。

The other thing that's going on is we had a good year this year in IMF with growth of about 10% in incentive fees, and so we're creating a little bit, and some of that was due to some onetime and timing items.

正在發生的另一件事是，今年我們在 IMF 度過了美好的一年，激勵費用增長了約 10%，因此我們正在創造一點，其中一些是由於一些一次性和定時項目。

And so we've created a little bit of a headwind there in IMF.

因此，我們在國際貨幣基金組織中造成了一些阻力。

And even though that's only 10% of the fee segment, it's sort of all averaging up to about 9%.

儘管這僅佔費用部分的 10%，但平均而言高達 9% 左右。

And of course, we ended up higher this year than our guidance range and we'd like to think we can get to the high end of the range or better this year.

當然，我們今年的業績超出了指導範圍，我們希望今年能夠達到指導範圍的高端或更好。

But given it's early in the year, we felt like 8% to 10% was the right guidance.

但考慮到現在還處於今年年初，我們認為 8% 到 10% 是正確的指導。

And then on the next one, I assume you're alluding to HNA who's been in the press with your second question.

然後在下一個問題上，我假設您指的是海航集團，該公司一直在媒體上提出您的第二個問題。

And I'd say like we don't comment on the dealings of any of our individual shareholders, we're not going to comment on what HNA might or might not do with their shares or what might or might not be going on at their company.

我想說的是，就像我們不會評論任何個人股東的交易一樣，我們也不會評論海航可能會或可能不會處理他們的股票，或者他們的股票可能會或可能不會發生什麼。 。

As you know, we have a shareholder agreement with them that contains protections for shareholders, and that's probably all I will say for now.

如您所知，我們與他們簽訂了股東協議，其中包含對股東的保護，這可能是我現在要說的全部。

The next question will come from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

下一個問題將來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的比爾·克勞。

Great.

偉大的。

Chris, you talked about some of the gives and takes and fundamentals '17 versus '18.

克里斯，你談到了 17 年和 18 年的一些取捨和基本原理。

You didn't touch at all on inbound international travel and I think the U.S. lost significant market share last year.

您根本沒有提到入境國際旅行，我認為美國去年失去了很大的市場份額。

Dollar has come down.

美元已經下跌了。

I'm wondering if you're seeing any rebound in inbound travel or feel like you're making any headway in D.C. in kind of changing the message and maybe some of the barriers to inbound travel?

我想知道您是否看到入境旅行有任何反彈，或者是否覺得您在華盛頓特區取得了任何進展，以改變信息以及入境旅行的一些障礙？

Yes, I didn't.

是的，我沒有。

That's a good question, Bill.

這是個好問題，比爾。

I didn't mean to exclude it.

我並不是有意排除它。

It isn't a huge part of our business system-wide.

它並不是我們整個業務系統的重要組成部分。

It's circa 5% of the business.

約佔業務的5%。

So I don't tend to think of it as a segment unto itself, I kind of break it down into 3 mega segments.

所以我不傾向於將其視為一個單獨的部分，我將其分為 3 個大型部分。

But it's a good question.

但這是一個好問題。

International inbound revenues were down for us circa -- and I think the industry maybe have been a little bit worse, circa 4% last year.

我們的國際入境收入大約下降了——我認為這個行業的情況可能更糟，去年大約下降了 4%。

I think our expectation for this year is while it'll be on a little bit of lag with what's going on with the dollar, that isn't an immediate impact as people have planning time for travel.

我認為我們對今年的預期是，雖然美元走勢會有點滯後，但這不會立即產生影響，因為人們已經計劃了旅行時間。

But our expectation is and certainly what the early signs that we're seeing in talking to our teams around the world is that it's going to be better this year than last, meaning we don't think it -- we think it will be flat to modestly up is sort of what our worst case is.

但我們的期望是，當然，我們在與世界各地的團隊交談時看到的早期跡像是，今年的情況會比去年更好，這意味著我們不這麼認為——我們認為情況會持平適度地提高是我們最壞的情況。

I think that has to do with the dollar, and I hope it has to do with some of the work that we're doing as an industry to work with the administration to sort of soften the edges of some of what's being said, not in any way to diminish the profile of security being sort of a top priority, but to make sure that we soften the rhetoric, so that those that are interested in coming to United States, the vast majority who want to do no harm to the United States, feel a bit more welcome.

我認為這與美元有關，我希望這與我們作為一個行業正在與政府合作所做的一些工作有關，以軟化某些言論的邊緣，而不是在任何降低安全形象的方式都是當務之急，但要確保我們軟化言辭，以便有興趣來美國的人，絕大多數人不想傷害美國，感覺更受歡迎。

And so we've been having -- the industry through our trade associations and a bunch of us individually have been having lots of conversations.

因此，我們一直在透過我們的行業協會和我們中的一些人進行了很多對話。

And yes, I'd like to think we're making some progress there.

是的，我想我們正在這方面取得一些進展。

We'll keep working on that.

我們將繼續努力。

And the dollar, I think, will help us and give us a little bit of a tailwind as well.

我認為，美元將幫助我們，並為我們帶來一點推動力。

Chris, if I could just ask, I think I missed the answer to this.

克里斯，如果我能問的話，我想我錯過了這個問題的答案。

But the Tru brand, how many do you actually expect to open in 2018?

但是Tru品牌，您實際上預計在2018年開設多少家？

I think we're going to open about 40 to 50 this year.

我想今年我們將開設大約 40 到 50 家。

And then based on what's happening, that should be double that in '19.

然後根據正在發生的情況，這個數字應該是 19 年的兩倍。

We would -- we're hoping to get, let's say, 50 this year open and 100 next year.

我們希望今年能開放 50 個，明年開放 100 個。

The next question will come from Jeff Donnelly of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的傑夫唐納利。

I'll try and squeak in maybe a 2-parter here as well.

我也會嘗試在這裡加入可能是兩人的。

Just first one, Chris ...

只是第一個，克里斯...

We got a new system.

我們有了一個新系統。

I love it.

我喜歡它。

Chris, you mentioned in your remarks just some of the, I guess, benefits that you're giving to some of your best loyalty members, it's just that it feels like we're at a point where net room demand is beginning to improve and frankly, the competitive field is becoming more like an oligopoly.

克里斯，我想，您在演講中提到了您為一些最好的忠誠會員提供的一些好處，只是感覺我們正處於淨房間需求開始改善的階段，坦率地說，競爭領域正變得越來越寡占。

So I guess, first question is why increase loyalty concessions at this point?

所以我想，第一個問題是為什麼此時要增加忠誠度優惠？

And second question, a different topic, I guess, relates to the consolidation.

我想第二個問題是不同的主題，與整合有關。

I'm just curious, how do you respond to investor views that you could use your premium evaluation to acquire another platform and maybe make Hilton an even more lucrative enterprise to use that greater scale to access revenue and expense synergies that maybe you can't access today even though you are already a very significant platform?

我只是好奇，你如何回應投資者的觀點，即你可以利用你的溢價評估來收購另一個平台，也許使希爾頓成為一家更有利可圖的企業，利用更大的規模來獲得你可能無法做到的收入和費用協同效應即使您已經是一個非常重要的平台，今天仍然可以訪問嗎？

Yes, we do.

是的，我們願意。

I'll take them as you gave them.

我會像你給的那樣接受它們。

In terms of loyalty, I don't view what we're doing in loyalty as in any way as sort of a space race.

就忠誠度而言，我並不認為我們在忠誠度方面所做的事情是一場太空競賽。

Like, I mean, we're not out there looking at what everybody else is doing and saying, if they do this, we got to one up it and do that.

就像，我的意思是，我們不會看看其他人在做什麼，然後說，如果他們這樣做，我們就必須採取行動並且這樣做。

I mean, obviously, our teams are cognizant of what's going on in the competitive marketplace.

我的意思是，顯然，我們的團隊了解競爭激烈的市場中正在發生的事情。

That's not at all what's driving it.

這根本不是推動它的原因。

What's driving it is talking to our customers and figuring out what I said earlier, how do we get them to have -- how do we create a deeper connection with them and get them more frequently engaged with us so that in the end, they're more loyal to us and they buy more of our products.

推動這一趨勢的是與我們的客戶交談並弄清楚我之前所說的，我們如何讓他們擁有 - 我們如何與他們建立更深層次的聯繫並讓他們更頻繁地與我們互動，以便最終，他們'他們對我們更忠誠，購買更多我們的產品。

And so the response that you're seeing in some of these things that I highlighted, which are not big money items, are things that our customers are saying would make a difference.

因此，你在我強調的一些東西中看到的反應，雖然不是大錢項目，但我們的客戶說會產生影響。

They don't cost our system much, but it would create greater engagement, greater loyalty, more frequent engagement, which we think ultimately will drive share.

它們不會花費我們太多的系統成本，但會帶來更大的參與、更高的忠誠度和更頻繁的參與度，我們認為這最終將推動份額的成長。

So everything we're doing is not about space race, spend more money.

所以我們所做的一切不是為了太空競賽，而是為了花更多的錢。

Many of these things that we're doing don't cost much of anything.

我們正在做的許多事情並不需要花太多錢。

I mean, giving them more utility on points and things.

我的意思是，讓他們在點和事物上有更多的實用性。

There's a theoretical cost to some of these, but a whole bunch of them are not particularly costly.

其中一些是有理論上的成本的，但一大堆並不是特別昂貴。

It's not like owners are bearing the burden of cost -- incremental cost.

這並不像業主承擔成本負擔——增量成本。

It doesn't work that way.

事實並非如此。

They're paying in and we're -- we may allocate the cost in a different way.

他們付錢，而我們——我們可能會以不同的方式分配成本。

And part of this has also been about taking other things away.

其中一部分也是為了拿走其他東西。

So we had -- I'll give you a great example that we've had historically where you earn points and miles, right?

所以我們——我會給你一個很好的例子，我們歷史上有過這樣的例子，你可以賺取積分和里程，對吧？

And we were one of the few that did it.

我們是少數做到這一點的人之一。

There's a long history to it long before my time.

早在我的時代之前，它就已經有很長的歷史了。

Super expensive program.

超昂貴的計劃。

Well, we've sort of weaned our customers off of that and then reallocated that into a whole bunch of other things that we think will drive more engagement with our customers.

好吧，我們已經讓客戶擺脫了這一點，然後將其重新分配到一大堆其他我們認為將推動與客戶更多互動的事情中。

So it's not just sort of add, add, incremental add.

所以這不僅僅是添加、添加、增量添加。

It is always about what do we need to do to get people more engage, wanting to come directly to us because that will drive more loyalty, more share and more profitable share in the sense of lowering distribution costs.

這始終是關於我們需要做什麼來讓人們更多地參與，想要直接來找我們，因為這將在降低分銷成本的意義上帶來更多的忠誠度、更多的份額和更有利可圖的份額。

On consolidation, yes, I mean, I probably answered this 1,000 or maybe more times.

關於整合，是的，我的意思是，我可能回答了 1,000 次甚至更多次。

Here's the thing.

事情是這樣的。

I think from our point of view, you're right.

我認為從我們的角度來看，你是對的。

We do have a good platform.

我們確實有一個很好的平台。

I think if you look at the numbers that we just reported for last year on growth and across the board, I would say we're pretty proud of those results.

我認為，如果你看看我們去年剛剛報告的全面成長數據，我會說我們對這些結果感到非常自豪。

If you look at what we're giving you and expectations for this year on unit growth and the next few years as I described in my earlier comments, we feel really good about that.

如果您看看我們為您提供的內容以及對今年和未來幾年的單位增長的期望，正如我在之前的評論中所述，我們對此感覺非常好。

So yes, we have been very focused on an organic growth strategy because ultimately, we think it helps us deliver better products that resonate more with customers and delivers better returns for you guys.

所以，是的，我們一直非常關注有機成長策略，因為最終，我們認為它可以幫助我們提供更好的產品，與客戶產生更多共鳴，並為你們帶來更好的回報。

And so that has been the approach, and we think that it's working.

這就是我們的方法，我們認為它是有效的。

And now if we didn't have scale or if we were missing segments and we had big strategic gaps, I would understand the argument.

現在，如果我們沒有規模，或者我們缺少細分市場，並且我們存在巨大的策略差距，我會理解這個論點。

But we don't, meaning we have plenty of scale.

但我們沒有，這意味著我們有足夠的規模。

We have great representation across the globe in the most important geographies.

我們在全球最重要的地區擁有廣泛的代表性。

And we have all of the major segments covered.

我們涵蓋了所有主要細分市場。

So we don't have strategic gaps.

所以我們不存在戰略差距。

We have the ability to grow both our existing brands, add new brands and do it in organic way where it's effectively an infinite yield because there's really no cost or meaningful cost associated with that growth.

我們有能力發展我們現有的品牌，增加新品牌，並以有機的方式做到這一點，這實際上是無限的收益，因為這種成長實際上沒有任何成本或有意義的成本。

So the math is pretty easy and that's why the focus and I think the numbers speak for themselves in terms of success.

因此，數學非常簡單，這就是為什麼要關注這一點，我認為數字本身就說明了成功。

Now having said that, I've said this a thousand times, too.

話雖如此，我也已經說過一千遍了。

We would never say never.

我們永遠不會說永遠。

That is a dumb thing for any CEO to say.

對於任何執行長來說，說出這樣的話都是愚蠢的。

We've looked at tons of things over the years, you guys know that, pretty much everything has been out there.

這些年來我們已經研究了很多東西，你們知道，幾乎所有東西都已經存在了。

When we were private, when we were -- since we've been public, we look at it.

當我們是私有的時候，當我們是公開的時候，我們會關注它。

We have a team that works with us to analyze these things.

我們有一個團隊與我們一起分析這些事情。

To date, we have not found things that really met the standard, which is that it's something that is very strategically important and a good fit strategically and economically advances the ball in terms of creating material value for shareholders.

到目前為止，我們還沒有找到真正符合標準的東西，即它具有非常重要的戰略意義，並且在戰略和經濟上非常適合，可以為股東創造物質價值。

And so -- but having said it doesn't mean that we would never find something that would meet that criteria.

所以——但這並不意味著我們永遠不會找到符合該標準的東西。

We just haven't to date, and we -- so we've been very focused on organic growth and I think we'll continue to do so and continue to deliver what I think are great results with that focus.

我們只是還沒有約會，所以我們一直非常關注有機成長，我認為我們將繼續這樣做，並繼續在這個重點上取得我認為很好的結果。

And if something ever presents itself that meets the test, then we'd consider.

如果有東西能夠通過測試，我們就會考慮。

The next question will come from Patrick Scholes of SunTrust.

下一個問題將由 SunTrust 的 Patrick Scholes 提出。

Just a question on your G&A guidance.

只是關於您的一般管理費用指南的問題。

And I want to, I guess, ask if I'm looking at this apples-to-apples.

我想，我想問我是否正在考慮這種同類的情況。

It calls for a deceleration in cost in 2018 versus 2017.

它要求 2018 年的成本在 2017 年之前有所下降。

Is that looking at it apples-to-apples?

這是一視同仁嗎？

And secondly, what may be driving that?

其次，是什麼推動了這個趨勢？

Yes, Patrick.

是的，派崔克。

You are looking at it apples-to-apples.

你正在同等地看待它。

Our guidance does call for G&A to go down and it's pretty simple.

我們的指導確實要求降低一般費用和行政費用，這非常簡單。

It's the transaction expenses for the most part that we incurred last year in doing the spends.

大部分是我們去年在支出過程中產生的交易費用。

Okay.

好的。

If I may ask a quick second question here, regarding...

如果我可以在這裡快速問第二個問題，關於...

It's hard to stop this second question.

很難阻止第二個問題。

I guess we got a problem.

我想我們遇到問題了。

Blame Harry Curtis here for that one.

這件事歸咎於哈里·柯蒂斯。

On your corporate rate negotiations, I had heard there had been some pushback on the sort of the extended cancellation policies.

在你們的公司價格談判中，我聽說對延長取消政策的種類有一些抵制。

How did that end up for you as far as rate negotiations?

就費率談判而言，您的結果如何？

It ended up in the low 2s, which is consistent with what we expected.

最終結果為 2 低，這與我們的預期一致。

And remember, that was all done pre-tax reform and sort of before the economy started to get a little bit of this incremental momentum.

請記住，這一切都是在稅改之前完成的，並且是在經濟開始獲得一點增量動力之前完成的。

So that's what we thought.

這就是我們的想法。

That's where it ended up.

這就是事情的結局。

We did have a little kickback on that, but not material.

我們確實在這方面得到了一點回扣，但不是實質的。

I mean, I talked to a lot of customers.

我的意思是，我和很多客戶談過。

I'll put it this way, not one of them raised it with me.

我這麼說吧，沒有人跟我提過這個問題。

I mean, I know when I talked to our sales teams, they said that it came up, a few people groused about it.

我的意思是，我知道當我與我們的銷售團隊交談時，他們說這個問題出現了，有些人對此表示抱怨。

But when you explain why we were doing it, I think people understood it and dealt with it.

但當你解釋我們為什麼這樣做時，我認為人們理解並處理它。

The next question will be from Smedes Rose of Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose 提出。

I just wanted to ask you, you talked about around a 2% RevPAR growth for the U.S. this year.

我只是想問您，您談到美國今年的 RevPAR 成長約 2%。

And how do you think that -- how do you think about your owner's margins in that environment, given there are a lot of costs coming through the system?

考慮到系統會產生大量成本，您如何看待在這種環境下所有者的利潤？

And does that have any impact on your kind of incentive fees?

這對你們的獎勵費有什麼影響嗎？

I know most maybe are driven by U.S. results but any kind of thoughts around that.

我知道大多數可能是由美國的結果驅動的，但也有與此相關的任何想法。

Yes, Smedes.

是的，斯梅德斯。

I mean, you're right.

我的意思是，你是對的。

You sort of touched on a dynamic that has been existing frankly for both our owners in the U.S. and for us in our ownership portfolio, which is at those levels of RevPAR growth given the way the cost base is growing, it gets difficult to grow margins and so margins have been pretty stable.

您談到了我們在美國的業主和我們的所有權投資組合中坦率地存在的一種動態，考慮到成本基礎的增長方式，在每間客房收入增長的水平上，利潤率的增長變得困難因此利潤率一直相當穩定。

I mean, overall, owned and operated margins for us actually for 2017 were up, but most of that was driven by results outside the U.S. And for us, in terms of IMF is it shouldn't be a meaningful impact.

我的意思是，總體而言，2017 年我們的自有和經營利潤率實際上有所上升，但其中大部分是由美國以外的業績推動的。 ，這不應該產生有意義的影響。

I mean, you've recognized and frankly, most of our IMF comes from outside the U.S. and over 85% or 90% of those, of the IMF does not stand behind an owner's priority return and participates at the house profit level, which, of course, that is -- margins effect house profit as well, but it's just not -- it's not a meaningful driver of IMF for us.

我的意思是，坦白說，您已經認識到，我們的大部分國際貨幣基金組織來自美國境外，其中超過 85% 或 90% 的國際貨幣基金組織不支持業主的優先回報並參與房屋利潤水平，當然，也就是說——利潤率也會影響公司利潤，但事實並非如此——它對我們來說不是國際貨幣基金組織的一個有意義的驅動因素。

Okay.

好的。

And just to also made a mockery of your one-question policy.

只是為了嘲笑你的單一議題政策。

I did want to ask your Blackstone has been -- linked in the media it's a potential buyer of the Waldorf.

我確實想問你們的黑石集團 - 有媒體報導說它是華爾道夫酒店的潛在買家。

I mean, just curious since that's such a flagship property for you, would you look to get involved with whomever would potentially buy that asset?

我的意思是，只是好奇，因為這對您來說是一個旗艦資產，您會考慮與可能購買該資產的人合作嗎？

Could you make any kind of economic investment?

你能進行任何形式的經濟投資嗎？

How do you think about timing and sort of the scope of that project, which seems to have sort of not really moved from the time that Anbang initially purchased it?

您如何看待該項目的時間安排和範圍？

Well, that's a complicated one, but I'll take it on.

嗯，這是一個複雜的問題，但我會接受的。

The -- first of all, there is activity going on at the Waldorf.

首先，華爾道夫酒店正在進行活動。

If you were to walk in that building, you would see that heavy demolition is going on and on.

如果你走進那棟大樓，你會看到大規模的拆除工作正在進行中。

Anbang has been moving forward.

安邦一直在前進。

We've had...

我們有過...

So is it on schedule with what you had initially thought, though, or it seems like ...

那麼，它是否符合你最初的想法，或者看起來...

Generally, yes.

一般來說，是的。

The planning of it is all done and they're in heavy demolition.

規劃已經全部完成，正在進行大規模拆除。

And as far as what they're telling us, they intend to move forward with that.

就他們告訴我們的情況而言，他們打算繼續前進。

They are -- it is rumored out there that they're going to sell a bunch of stuff.

他們——有傳言說他們要賣很多東西。

My understanding is that is accurate.

我的理解是，這是準確的。

I do not, at least at this moment when things can change, believe that, that does include the Waldorf Astoria, at least as they have said it to us.

至少在事情可能發生變化的此刻，我不相信這確實包括華爾道夫酒店，至少正如他們對我們所說的那樣。

I can't comment on what Blackstone is doing.

我無法評論黑石正在做什麼。

They're -- we're not affiliated with them.

他們——我們與他們沒有任何關係。

If you have a question for what they're going to do, you can ask them.

如果您對他們要做什麼有疑問，可以詢問他們。

But my understanding from Anbang, notwithstanding them trying to sell a bunch of different assets around the world, at the moment, the Waldorf is not one of those and they tell us that they're moving forward and, in fact, as I've said, work is going on.

但據我從安邦的了解，儘管他們試圖在世界各地出售大量不同的資產，但目前華爾道夫酒店並不是其中之一，他們告訴我們他們正在向前邁進，事實上，正如我所看到的那樣說，工作正在進行中。

We are in a very well protected position there for the record in the sense of the agreements that we have with whoever.

從我們與任何人簽訂的協議的意義上來說，我們在那裡處於一個非常受保護的位置，以備記錄。

If it's Anbang, that'll be with them.

如果是安邦，那就和他們在一起。

If it ends up with somebody else, we have very strong agreements that will run with the property.

如果它最終落入其他人手中，我們將與該房產達成非常強有力的協議。

The next question will come from Michael Bellisario of Baird.

下一個問題將來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的邁克爾貝利薩裡奧 (Michael Bellisario)。

Chris, just want to go back to kind of size and scale topic and maybe how you think about balancing that net unit growth, which obviously is a big driver for you and investors are focused on.

克里斯，只想回到規模和規模的話題，也許你是如何考慮平衡淨單位成長的，這顯然是你和投資人關注的一個重要驅動因素。

But also being cognizant of existing owners, kind of their profitability and not diluting them with new supply in today's tough operating environment, kind of how you think about that balancing act?

但也要認識到現有的所有者，他們的盈利能力，並且在當今艱難的經營環境中不要用新的供應來稀釋他們，你如何看待這種平衡行為？

Yes, I mean, it's one that we take awfully seriously as you might imagine, given that particularly in a capital-light world, but no real estate timeshare, pretty much 100% of our growth is coming from the ownership community around the world.

是的，我的意思是，正如你想像的那樣，我們非常認真地對待這一問題，特別是在一個資本輕的世界，但沒有房地產分時度假，我們的增長幾乎100% 來自世界各地的所有權社區。

So we work -- I'm not going to say we're perfect, okay?

所以我們工作——我不會說我們是完美的，好嗎？

Nobody is, but we work really hard and are really thoughtful about each individual project in whatever market it is in and making sure that we don't think it's going to create any sort of meaningful lasting impact to an existing owner.

沒有人是這樣的，但我們非常努力地工作，並且對每個專案都深思熟慮，無論它在哪個市場，並確保我們不會認為它會對現有業主產生任何有意義的持久影響。

And we have a whole process that we work with owners on where we are adding product in markets where they are there.

我們有一個完整的流程，我們與業主合作，在他們所在的市場中添加產品。

Thankfully in many of those markets, we have owners that are very present in that market.

值得慶幸的是，在許多這樣的市場中，我們都有非常活躍的業主。

And if we're doing incremental work, it's with them.

如果我們正在做增量工作，那就是和他們一起。

And so they're adding to their own inventory in that market.

因此他們正在增加自己在該市場的庫存。

But where it is in conflict in different owners, we do a whole bunch of work to really analyze and understand theoretical impact.

但是，如果不同所有者之間存在衝突，我們會做大量工作來真正分析和理解理論影響。

And if we think that it's not going to be good for them and it's going to have a lasting detrimental impact, then we walk away from deals and we do it all the time.

如果我們認為這對他們沒有好處，並且會產生持久的有害影響，那麼我們就會放棄交易，而且我們一直這樣做。

I mean, we have debates around this very table I'm sitting at with our development teams, we do a whole bunch of analysis and we do walk away from deals on a regular basis.

我的意思是，我們圍繞著我與開發團隊坐在一起的這張桌子進行了辯論，我們進行了大量的分析，並且我們確實定期放棄交易。

The next question will be from Vince Ciepiel of Cleveland Research Company.

下一個問題將由克利夫蘭研究公司的 Vince Ciepiel 提出。

So last year, domestic RevPAR benefited from inauguration, hurricane and a couple other big events.

去年，國內每間可用客房收入受益於就職典禮、颶風和其他一些重大事件。

I think on prior calls, you maybe had mentioned that you didn't see as much lift as maybe the industry as a whole from those onetime events due to exposures.

我想在之前的電話會議中，您可能提到過，由於曝光，您沒有看到像整個行業那樣從那些一次性事件中獲得的提升。

So I guess, my question is in your 1.5% last year, can you take a stab at maybe quantifying those tailwinds?

所以我想，我的問題是你去年的 1.5%，你可以試試看量化這些順風嗎？

And then as you move into '18, I mean, do you think that you'll have a lingering benefit from the hurricane?

然後，當你進入 18 年時，我的意思是，你認為你會從颶風中獲得持久的好處嗎？

And then, I guess, early in January based on what you saw, how was lapping the inauguration?

然後，我想，根據你所看到的情況，在一月初，就職典禮進行得怎麼樣？

Yes, Vince, I'll take this.

是的，文斯，我會接受這個。

This is Kevin.

這是凱文.

I mean, last year in the U.S., I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks that there was 140 basis points in the quarter related to events.

我的意思是，去年在美國，我想我在準備好的演講中提到，該季度有 140 個基點與事件相關。

I think for the overall year, it was 100 basis points or maybe even a little bit less of a tailwind.

我認為對於全年來說，這是 100 個基點，甚至可能是稍微少一點的順風車。

Early in the inauguration over January last year will certainly affect D.C., but on a macro basis, it's not going to have that big of an impact overall.

去年一月早些時候的就職典禮肯定會對華盛頓產生影響，但從宏觀來看，整體影響不會那麼大。

And that's all baked into our guidance.

這一切都已納入我們的指導中。

And so we do have -- we did mention that some of our brands are not able to drive occupancy as much when these events go on because they're already full, right?

我們確實提到過，當這些活動繼續進行時，我們的一些品牌無法提高入住率，因為它們已經滿了，對嗎？

So that has an effect of causing us to underperform on a RevPAR growth basis a little bit versus the industry versus STR.

因此，與產業和 STR 相比，這導致我們的 RevPAR 成長表現略差一些。

So that's all baked into our guidance for this year.

因此，這一切都已納入我們今年的指導中。

And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our question-and-answer session.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to hand the conference back to Chris Nassetta for any closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）發表閉幕詞。

Thanks, everybody, for the time today.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。

Look forward to catching up with you after the first quarter to give you an update on how we think about the rest of the year.

期待在第一季之後與您聯繫，向您介紹我們對今年剩餘時間的看法的最新情況。

Take care.

小心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has concluded.

女士們、先生們，會議結束了。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

At this time, you may disconnect your lines.

此時，您可以斷開線路。