希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Hilton Worldwide Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓全球 2017 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over the Jill Slattery, Senior Director of Investor Relations.

現在我想把會議交給投資者關係高級總監吉爾·斯萊特里 (Jill Slattery)。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Denise.

謝謝你，丹妮絲。

Welcome to Hilton's third quarter 2017 earnings call.

歡迎參加希爾頓 2017 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

Unless otherwise noted, comparisons to the company's third quarter 2016 results assume that the spin-off transactions had occurred on January 1, 2016.

除非另有說明，否則與本公司 2016 年第三季業績的比較均假設分拆交易發生於 2016 年 1 月 1 日。

Please see our earnings release for additional details.

請參閱我們的收益發布以了解更多詳細資訊。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our third quarter results and provide an update on our expectations for the year.

我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將回顧我們第三季的業績，並提供我們今年預期的最新資訊。

Following their remarks, we will be happy to take your questions.

在他們的發言之後，我們將很樂意回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安。

Before I get to the specifics on the quarter, I'd like to briefly recognize all of those around the world who have been impacted by recent natural disasters.

在介紹本季的具體情況之前，我想先簡單介紹一下世界各地所有受到最近自然災害影響的人們。

It's something that was brought into vivid reality as I recently visited our teams down in Puerto Rico and in Houston.

當我最近訪問我們在波多黎各和休士頓的團隊時，這一點被帶入了生動的現實。

It's been an incredibly challenging time for these communities and for our team members that serve them.

對於這些社區以及為他們服務的團隊成員來說，這是一個極其具有挑戰性的時期。

At the same time, it's been really inspiring to see our teams come together to support one another in their communities, and I want to thank them for all of their extraordinary efforts.

同時，看到我們的團隊齊心協力在社區中相互支持，這真的很鼓舞人心，我要感謝他們所做的所有非凡努力。

Now turning to the quarter and our performance.

現在轉向本季和我們的業績。

This is our third quarter as the new simplified Hilton and our strong performance continued.

這是我們第三季的新簡化希爾頓酒店，我們的強勁業績仍在繼續。

We delivered bottom line results above our guided ranges and are raising our outlook for the year.

我們的獲利結果高於指導範圍，並提高了今年的前景。

Our performance continues to demonstrate the resiliency of our fee-based business that can drive adjusted EBITDA well ahead of RevPAR growth with minimal use of our capital and generate meaningful free cash flow for shareholders.

我們的業績繼續證明了我們收費業務的彈性，可以以最少的資本使用來推動調整後的 EBITDA 遠遠領先於 RevPAR 的成長，並為股東產生有意義的自由現金流。

The fundamentals we discussed last quarter are largely unchanged.

我們上季討論的基本面基本上沒有變化。

Excluding the impact of holiday shifts and weather, overall RevPAR trends have been generally in line with our expectations this quarter and consistent with what we've seen all year.

排除假期班次和天氣的影響，本季的整體 RevPAR 趨勢基本上符合我們的預期，也與我們全年的情況一致。

We continue to see steady business transient and group growth at the low to midpoint of our guidance range and leisure transient at the high end.

我們繼續看到業務瞬態和集團成長處於指導範圍的低端到中點，休閒瞬態成長處於高端。

Group pace in the quarter was up, improving position for the balance of the year.

本季集團步伐有所加快，改善了今年剩餘時間的地位。

Strength in the international markets, particularly across Europe and Asia-Pacific, continues to boost system-wide results.

國際市場的實力，特別是歐洲和亞太地區的實力，繼續推動整個系統的表現。

Assuming a similar cadence for the remainder of the year, we expect system-wide RevPAR to come in at or slightly above the midpoint of our 1% to 3% guidance range.

假設今年剩餘時間保持類似節奏，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 將達到或略高於我們 1% 至 3% 指導範圍的中點。

So far, in October, which contributes approximately 40% of the quarter, system-wide RevPAR is slightly ahead of expectations.

到目前為止，10 月佔本季約 40% 的時間，全系統 RevPAR 略高於預期。

As we look to 2018, we feel good about the setup and even better about our ability to continue delivering value beyond what broader fundamentals give us.

展望 2018 年，我們對目前的情況感到滿意，更對我們繼續提供超越更廣泛基本面的價值的能力感到更加滿意。

Economic indicators point to a macro environment slightly better than this year, with growth in U.S. GDP and nonresidential fixed investment forecasted to increase year-over-year.

經濟指標顯示宏觀環境略好於今年，美國GDP和非住宅固定投資的成長預計將比去年同期成長。

In the roughly 30% of our business where we have decent sightlines, we see 2018 group position ahead of this year and we expect corporate negotiated rate increases of between 2% and 3%.

在我們擁有良好視野的約 30% 的業務中，我們預計 2018 年的集團地位會提前於今年，並且預計企業協商利率將上漲 2% 至 3%。

Supply remains modest with U.S. supply growth forecasted at around its 30-year average.

供應量仍然不大，預計美國供應量成長約為 30 年平均值。

Given that setup, we should have a similar level of pricing power next year, leading to 2018 system-wide RevPAR growth guidance of 1% to 3%.

鑑於這種設置，我們明年應該擁有類似水準的定價能力，從而導致 2018 年全系統 RevPAR 成長指引為 1% 至 3%。

Turning to the development side.

轉向開發方面。

Year-to-date, we've opened nearly 300 hotels with roughly 40,000 rooms, and we remain on track to deliver net unit growth of approximately 6.5% for the full year.

今年迄今為止，我們已經開設了近 300 家酒店，擁有約 40,000 間客房，並且我們仍有望實現全年約 6.5% 的淨單位增長。

With over half our pipeline already under construction, we have very good visibility into our unit growth and, as a result, would expect net unit growth of around 6.5% again next year.

我們一半以上的管道已經在建設中，我們對單位增長有很好的了解，因此，預計明年單位淨增長將再次達到 6.5% 左右。

We are committed to thoughtful and intentional organic growth that allows us to strategically expand our global footprint.

我們致力於深思熟慮和有意的有機成長，使我們能夠策略性地擴大我們的全球足跡。

We believe this approach will continue to enhance our network effect and ultimately grow our share of global development.

我們相信這種方法將繼續增強我們的網路效應，並最終增加我們在全球發展中的份額。

This is evidenced in our growing pipeline, which reached a record 335,000 rooms in the quarter, up roughly 13% year-over-year and representing a market leading 40% of our existing supply.

我們不斷增長的客房數量證明了這一點，本季客房數量達到創紀錄的 335,000 間，年增約 13%，占我們現有供應量的 40%，處於市場領先地位。

With year-to-date pace ahead of expectations, we now forecast full year 2017 approvals to exceed our record of 106,000 rooms that was achieved last year.

由於年初至今的進度超出了預期，我們現在預測 2017 年全年的批准量將超過去年創下的 106,000 間客房的記錄。

In the U.S., we continue to gain traction with conversions.

在美國，我們繼續透過轉換獲得吸引力。

We recently welcomed the London and New York City to our portfolio.

最近，我們歡迎倫敦和紐約市加入我們的投資組合。

We will oversee a full renovation of this property.

我們將監督該房產的全面翻修。

After which, the property will be reflagged as the Conrad New York Midtown.

此後，該酒店將重新命名為紐約市中心康萊德酒店。

This prestigious 562-key hotel will become the Conrad brand's second property in New York City and will set a new standard of smart luxury with a spacious all-suite product.

這家享有盛譽的酒店擁有 562 間客房，將成為康萊德品牌在紐約市的第二家酒店，並將以寬敞的全套房產品樹立智慧豪華的新標準。

Speaking of London, I'm pleased to announce today that we are announcing the Waldorf Astoria brand is set to make its London debut in one of the capital's best-known monuments.

說到倫敦，我今天很高興地宣布，華爾道夫品牌將在倫敦最著名的古蹟之一首次亮相。

The Admiralty Arch Waldorf Astoria will be one of London's most prestigious addresses, literally at the entrance to the mall and facing Buckingham palace.

海軍部拱門華爾道夫酒店將成為倫敦最負盛名的地址之一，位於購物中心的入口處，面向白金漢宮。

Following an extensive refurbishment program which will restore and protect this iconic landmark, the hotel plans to open with 96 luxurious hotel rooms and suites and 3 world-class restaurants.

經過大規模的翻新計劃，修復和保護這一標誌性地標，酒店計劃開業時將擁有 96 間豪華酒店客房和套房以及 3 間世界一流的餐廳。

The Asia-Pacific region represents our largest growth opportunity.

亞太地區是我們最大的成長機會。

With roughly 400 hotels totaling over 90,000 rooms, the region accounts for 1/4 of our pipeline and we're opening more than 1 hotel per week there.

該地區大約有 400 家酒店，總計超過 90,000 間客房，占我們在建酒店總數的 1/4，而且我們每週在那裡開設超過 1 家酒店。

In the third quarter, we opened the Waldorf Astoria Chengdu in China, our 200th hotel in the region and the latest in a fast-growing luxury portfolio.

第三季度，我們在中國開設了成都華爾道夫酒店，這是我們在該地區的第 200 家酒店，也是快速增長的豪華酒店組合中的最新一家。

We also celebrated the arrival of our first Curio in China, our ninth brand in the country.

我們也慶祝了第一個 Curio 進入中國，這是我們在中國的第九個品牌。

Located on Hainan island, the 266-room resort demonstrates our ability to attract unique assets to our soft brands, given the favorable value proposition that our system offers.

考慮到我們的系統提供的有利價值主張，這座擁有 266 間客房的度假村位於海南島，展示了我們為我們的軟品牌吸引獨特資產的能力。

Overall, our global growth is driving increased loyalty from our guests, increasing our overall market share and delivering strong returns for our owners.

總體而言，我們的全球成長正在推動客人忠誠度的提高，增加我們的整體市場份額，並為我們的業主帶來豐厚的回報。

A couple of weeks ago, we hosted nearly 3,000 attendees at our Global Owners Conference in Dallas at the Hilton Anatole.

幾週前，我們在達拉斯希爾頓阿納托爾酒店舉辦了全球業主大會，接待了近 3,000 名與會者。

The theme of the conference was the power of our network effect.

會議的主題是我們網路效應的力量。

This is created by bringing our industry-leading brands with global scale and chain scale diversity together with a highly relevant loyalty program and the best commercial engines in the business to deliver increasing customer preference and, ultimately, leading returns for our owners.

這是透過將我們具有全球規模和連鎖規模多樣性的行業領先品牌與高度相關的忠誠度計劃和業內最好的商業引擎結合在一起來創建的，以提供不斷增加的客戶偏好，並最終為我們的所有者帶來領先的回報。

Innovation is a critical driver of our network effect, and our app is a key platform for that innovation.

創新是我們網路效應的關鍵驅動力，而我們的應用程式是這種創新的關鍵平台。

In addition to being our fastest-growing and lowest-cost distribution channel, our app also enables the deep integration of the on-property experience into the mobile devices of our guests, allowing a direct differentiated customer experience.

除了成為我們成長最快、成本最低的分銷管道外，我們的應用程式還能夠將飯店體驗深度整合到客人的行動裝置中，從而提供直接差異化的客戶體驗。

Our app currently enables digital check-in with room selection globally as well as digital key for Hilton Honors members.

我們的應用程式目前支援全球範圍內的數位入住和房間選擇，以及希爾頓榮譽客會會員的數位鑰匙。

Our most recent enhancements enable members to upgrade a check-in much like airlines upsell preferred seats.

我們最新的增強功能使會員能夠升級辦理登機手續，就像航空公司追加銷售首選座位一樣。

Through our recently launched Live Chat function, members can also engage on property team members directly for any request they may have.

透過我們最近推出的即時聊天功能，會員還可以直接與飯店團隊成員聯繫，以滿足他們的任何要求。

Coming soon is connected room, the first truly mobile-centric hotel room.

即將推出互聯客房，這是第一個真正以移動為中心的酒店客房。

Through the app, members will be able to seamlessly control their rooms' lighting, HVAC and entertainment options, including preloaded and streaming content.

透過該應用程序，會員將能夠無縫控制房間的照明、暖通空調和娛樂選項，包括預先載入和串流內容。

Owners will also benefit from room and energy use that will support environmental and operational improvements.

業主還將受益於空間和能源的使用，這將支持環境和營運的改善。

We're in beta testing in select hotels now and expect to formally launch connected room next year.

我們目前正在部分飯店進行 Beta 測試，預計明年將正式推出連通客房。

In summary, we're pleased with our performance this quarter and feel really good about the setup as we head into 2018, in which modest RevPAR growth can drive meaningful adjusted EBITDA growth and capital returns for shareholders.

總而言之，我們對本季度的業績感到滿意，並且對進入 2018 年的情況感到非常滿意，其中適度的 RevPAR 增長可以推動有意義的調整後 EBITDA 增長和股東資本回報。

Our teams around the world and our purpose-led culture they bring to life each and every day are critical to this ongoing success.

我們遍布世界各地的團隊以及他們每天所帶來的以目標為導向的文化對於我們持續成功至關重要。

I'm pleased to announce that just this morning, we were once again selected as one of the world's best multinational workplaces by Great Place to Work, placing in the top 10 and joining a group of 25 elite global companies recognized for high-trust, high-performing workplace cultures in 2017.

我很高興地宣布，就在今天早上，我們再次被Great Place to Work 評選為全球最佳跨國工作場所之一，躋身前10 名，並加入由25 家因高度信任而受到認可的全球精英公司組成的集團中。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin to give you a little bit more detail on the quarter.

接下來，我將把電話轉給凱文，向您提供有關本季的更多詳細資訊。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

For the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 1.3% versus the prior year on a currency-neutral basis due to strong leisure demand and international results.

由於強勁的休閒需求和國際業績，本季全系統的 RevPAR 在貨幣中性的基礎上比上年增長了 1.3%。

Calendar shifts displaced business travel and group demand in the quarter, with the July 4th and Jewish holiday timing shifts weighing on July and September.

日曆的變化取代了本季的商務旅行和團體需求，其中 7 月 4 日和猶太假期的時間變化對 7 月和 9 月造成了壓力。

System wide, we estimate the RevPAR benefits from hurricanes Harvey and Irma largely offset these major calendar shifts.

在整個系統範圍內，我們估計颶風「哈維」和「艾爾瑪」帶來的 RevPAR 效益在很大程度上抵消了這些主要的日曆變化。

Adjusted EBITDA of $524 million was above the high end of our guidance range and exceeded the midpoint by $24 million.

調整後 EBITDA 為 5.24 億美元，高於我們指導範圍的上限，並超出中點 2,400 萬美元。

The beat was largely driven by better hotel performance and non-RevPAR-driven fees and some benefit from FX and onetime items.

這一增長主要是由更好的酒店業績和非 RevPAR 驅動的費用以及外匯和一次性項目帶來的一些好處所推動的。

Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $0.56, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and increasing 37% year-over-year on a pro forma basis.

特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.56 美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，預計將年增 37%。

In the quarter, management franchise fees grew 11% versus the prior year to $512 million, well ahead of our 7% to 9% guidance range.

本季度，管理特許經營費較上年增長 11%，達到 5.12 億美元，遠高於我們 7% 至 9% 的指導範圍。

Hotel performance and greater license fees drove the outperformance in the fee segment, while continued strength in the U.K. and Japan led to better-than-expected results in our owned and leased portfolio.

飯店業績和更高的授權費推動了收費領域的優異表現，而英國和日本的持續強勁導致我們自有和租賃投資組合的業績好於預期。

Turning to our regional performance and outlook.

轉向我們的區域業績和前景。

Comparable RevPAR in the U.S. was roughly flat, with calendar-driven group underperformance particularly in convention business offset by continued strength in leisure.

美國的可比RevPAR大致持平，日曆驅動的集團表現不佳，特別是在會議業務方面，被休閒業務的持續強勁所抵消。

We estimate that the 2 major calendar shifts negatively weighed on U.S. RevPAR by approximately 70 basis points in the quarter, partially offset by a lift in business from the aftermath of the hurricanes.

我們估計，本季的兩次主要日曆變化對美國 RevPAR 產生了約 70 個基點的負面影響，但颶風過後業務的成長部分抵消了這一影響。

We estimate that our hurricane-related benefit was less than the overall U.S. industry due to our meaningful occupancy share premiums in those markets.

我們估計，由於我們在這些市場的入住率溢價很高，因此我們與颶風相關的收益低於美國整個行業。

For full year 2017, we continue to forecast U.S. RevPAR growth towards the lower half of our 1% to 3% system-wide range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們繼續預測美國 RevPAR 成長將接近系統範圍 1% 至 3% 的下半部。

In the Americas outside the U.S., third quarter RevPAR grew 3.4% versus the prior year due to strength in Mexico, which was driven by strong transient demand.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第三季每間可用客房營收較上年同期成長 3.4%，這得益於墨西哥強勁的臨時需求推動下的強勁成長。

Leisure transient, in particular, saw high single-digit room night growth for the quarter.

特別是休閒短暫性，本季的間夜成長率呈現高單位數成長。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region at the higher end of our guidance range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到我們指導範圍的高端。

RevPAR in Europe grew a solid 8% in the quarter, ahead of expectations due to transient strength in the U.K., Turkey and Spain.

由於英國、土耳其和西班牙的短暫強勁，歐洲的每間可用客房營收本季穩定成長 8%，超乎預期。

Additionally, international inbound to Europe was up nearly 11% in the quarter.

此外，本季歐洲的國際入境遊客量增加了近 11%。

We continue to expect full year 2017 RevPAR growth in the region to be in the mid- to high single digits.

我們繼續預計該地區 2017 年全年 RevPAR 成長將達到中高個位數。

In the Middle East and Africa, RevPAR growth was up 20 basis points and significantly ahead of our expectations as the reversal of the holiday shifts that benefited the second quarter were less of a drag than we anticipated.

在中東和非洲，每間可用客房收入增長了 20 個基點，大大超出了我們的預期，因為第二季度受益的假期轉變的逆轉所帶來的拖累小於我們的預期。

We saw strong group performance in Saudi Arabia and improving leisure business in Egypt.

我們看到沙烏地阿拉伯的集團表現強勁，埃及的休閒業務有所改善。

For full year 2017, we now expect RevPAR growth in the region to be at the higher end of our guidance range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們目前預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到我們指導範圍的高端。

In the Asia-Pacific region, RevPAR increased 8.3% in the quarter, led by strength in Greater China, which was up over 13%.

在亞太地區，本季每間可用客房收入成長 8.3%，其中大中華區成長超過 13%。

RevPAR in China showed continued transient strength at both established and maturing assets.

中國的每間可用收入在成熟資產和到期資產上均表現出持續的短暫強勢。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth for the region to be mid- to high single digits, with RevPAR in China up in the 9% range.

2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到中高個位數，其中中國的 RevPAR 將成長 9%。

Moving on to capital return.

轉向資本回報。

We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the quarter for a total of $147 million in dividends paid year-to-date.

本季我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股息，今年迄今支付的股息總額為 1.47 億美元。

Our board also authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share in the fourth quarter.

我們的董事會也授權在第四季派發每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

We expect to return between $1 billion and $1.1 billion to shareholders or about 5% of our market cap through buybacks and dividends this year.

我們預計今年將透過回購和股利向股東回報 10 億至 11 億美元，約占我們市值的 5%。

Since initiating buybacks in March, we have purchased $693 million of shares at an average price per share of $63.17.

自 3 月開始回購以來，我們以每股 63.17 美元的平均價格購買了 6.93 億美元的股票。

For the fourth quarter of 2017, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth between 1% and 3%.

對於 2017 年第四季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 成長在 1% 至 3% 之間。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $453 million to $473 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.41 to $0.45.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.53 億至 4.73 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.41 至 0.45 美元。

We are maintaining our full year 2017 RevPAR growth guidance of 1% to 3%.

我們維持 2017 年全年 RevPAR 成長指引 1% 至 3%。

As Chris mentioned, we expect full year growth at or slightly above the midpoint of the range.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們預計全年增長將達到或略高於該範圍的中點。

We are raising our adjusted EBITDA outlook by $30 million at the midpoint to $1.93 billion, an increase of more than 9% year-over-year.

我們將調整後 EBITDA 預期中位數上調 3,000 萬美元，達到 19.3 億美元，年增超過 9%。

We're also raising diluted EPS adjusted for special items to $1.87 to $1.91.

我們也將特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益提高至 1.87 美元至 1.91 美元。

Please note that our full year EPS range does not incorporate incremental share repurchases.

請注意，我們的全年每股盈餘範圍不包含增量股票回購。

Further details on our third quarter results as well as our latest guidance ranges can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第三季度業績以及最新指導範圍的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們現在願意為您解答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Denise, can we have our first question, please?

（操作員指示）丹尼斯，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question this morning will come from Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）今天早上你們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的喬·格雷夫。

I know it's early days here, Chris, so we appreciate your comments on the early read for 2018.

克里斯，我知道現在還為時過早，所以我們感謝您對 2018 年早期閱讀的評論。

But can you just talk about the same-store RevPAR guidance for '18, and how much of it is rolled up at corporate versus from the regions?

但您能否談談 18 年的同店 RevPAR 指導，以及其中企業和地區的比例分別是多少？

And then how do you think about it from a geographic and from a segmentation perspective relative to 2017?

那麼相對於 2017 年，您如何從地理和細分角度看待這個問題？

Yes, good question.

是的，好問題。

And I know, Joe, probably #1 question on people's minds is sort of what's in front of us.

我知道，喬，人們心中的第一個問題可能就是我們面前的問題。

So as we do every year, we go -- we're sort of in the middle of budget season now.

因此，正如我們每年所做的那樣，我們現在正處於預算季節中期。

We are, to be honest, not complete with that, but towards the later stages of it.

老實說，我們還沒有完成，但正在邁向後期階段。

Certainly, we have a very good sense on the top line, which is why we're happy to give some level of guidance there.

當然，我們對營收有很好的判斷力，這就是為什麼我們很樂意在這方面提供一定程度的指導。

And so what I would describe it as, as the case every year, we do it on a very granular basis.

因此，我將其描述為，就像每年的情況一樣，我們是在非常細粒度的基礎上進行的。

Every hotel in every region in the world has worked on a budget, and those are all rolled up to aggregate to a global budget -- a regional and then a global budget.

世界上每個地區的每家酒店都制定了預算，然後將這些預算匯總起來形成全球預算——先是地區預算，然後是全球預算。

So this is not in any way top-down.

所以這絕不是自上而下的。

I mean, we certainly have used top-down, but this all happens bottoms-up.

我的意思是，我們當然使用了自上而下的方法，但這一切都是自下而上發生的。

And the guidance that you would typically get from us is about what you'd expect, which is we're aggregating it up, we have a budget and we're trying to create an upside and a downside to that.

您通常從我們這裡得到的指導是關於您所期望的，即我們正在匯總它，我們有預算，我們正在努力創造一個好的方面和一個缺點。

So said another way, the expectation should be we are generally going to have budget that are somewhere circa the midpoint of that guidance range.

換句話說，我們的預期應該是我們的預算通常約為該指導範圍的中點。

And that -- the basis for that is as I described in my introductory comments, which is a demand growth environment that we think is going to be steady to a little bit better.

正如我在介紹性評論中所描述的那樣，其基礎是我們認為需求成長環境將會穩定甚至好一點。

I mean, the optimistic side of me says everybody still thinks GDP growth around the world and in the U.S. is going to tick up.

我的意思是，我樂觀的一面是，每個人仍然認為全球和美國的 GDP 成長將會加快。

Everybody still believes, and we're seeing it in nonresidential fixed investment, numbers are going to be generally picking up, particularly here in the U.S. and that should lead to some incremental demand growth.

每個人仍然相信，我們在非住宅固定投資方面看到，數字將普遍回升，特別是在美國，這應該會導致需求增量成長。

The supply side, as I covered, is fairly stable.

正如我所提到的，供應方面相當穩定。

I mean, various numbers are out there, but it's generally somewhere at 2% or a little bit below, which is not too terribly different than what we're seeing this year.

我的意思是，有各種各樣的數字，但一般都在 2% 或稍低一點，這與我們今年看到的情況並沒有太大不同。

So you put those 2 things together, I think our best assessment is that we're going to have a year, or next year at least, as we look at it right now, we look at budgets and we look at all regions of the world, we're going to have a year, next year much like we're seeing this year.

所以你把這兩件事放在一起，我認為我們最好的評估是我們將有一年，或者至少明年，正如我們現在所看到的那樣，我們會考慮預算，我們會考慮所有地區世界，我們將會有一個明年，就像我們今年看到的那樣。

In terms of the geographic representation, again, I think it's similar to this year.

就地理代表性而言，我認為與今年類似。

I would sort of at a high-level say that top line growth is going to be here in the U.S., probably at the low to the midpoint of the range, and we would expect international growth to be greater.

我想說的是，美國的收入成長將出現在該範圍的低點到中點，我們預計國際成長將會更大。

So probably at the midpoint to the high end of the range.

所以可能在範圍的中點到高端。

The next question will come from Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利提出。

So Chris, as you kind of expanded on your thoughts on 2018, when you think about the 1 to 3, and you think about, obviously, a lot of proposals currently being thrown around right now.

克里斯，當你擴展你對 2018 年的想法時，當你思考 1 到 3 時，你顯然會想到目前正在拋出的許多提案。

But if you were to get some form of tax reform, a, kind of how long do you think you start to see that show up in the operating results?

但如果你要進行某種形式的稅務改革，你認為你需要多長時間才能看到它出現在經營業績中？

And, b, what kind of impact do you guys kind of foresee that having, from at least a business transient perspective?

b，至少從業務瞬態的角度來看，你們預期會產生什麼樣的影響？

Yes, another good question.

是的，另一個好問題。

I wish I knew the answer to that.

我希望我知道答案。

I'm spending here -- given that I'm inside the beltway, you get a heavy dose of politics here when you live inside the beltway in Washington.

我在這裡消費——考慮到我在繞城高速內，當你住在華盛頓的繞城高速內時，你會在這裡受到大量的政治影響。

We obviously care a lot about tax reform for a whole bunch of reasons.

出於多種原因，我們顯然非常關心稅改。

So I definitely, personally, as well as others in our organization have been very engaged with our industry and very directly with Congress as they're -- and the administration, as they're trying to figure out what path they will take.

因此，我個人以及我們組織中的其他人肯定與我們的行業以及國會和政府非常直接地接觸，因為他們正在努力弄清楚他們將採取什麼道路。

There are different forms of tax reform that is sort of coming together.

有多種不同形式的稅改正在融合在一起。

There are some general themes that I think are now becoming pretty consistent rather than get into those individually.

我認為一些普遍的主題現在變得非常一致，而不是單獨討論。

And those will, I think, become clear over the next week or 2 because things are moving quite rapidly, particularly in the House, and then will flow over into the Senate.

我認為，這些將在未來一兩週內變得清晰，因為事情進展得相當快，特別是在眾議院，然後將流入參議院。

I think in the next week or so, you're going to start to see a tax reform with much more specificity than the high-level dialogue.

我認為在接下來的一周左右，您將開始看到比高層對話更具體的稅收改革。

And I would say, rather than get into details, I think, generally, it's headed in a good direction.

我想說的是，我認為，總體而言，它正朝著一個好的方向發展，而不是深入細節。

I would say, just my personal opinion, that there is a real opportunity that this gets done.

我想說，這只是我個人的觀點，這是一個真正的機會來完成這件事。

I think that, that is -- time will tell, but I'd say if you asked me last quarter versus this quarter, I would I'm say much more optimistic this quarter that something will get done just based on the state of play.

我認為，時間會證明一切，但我想說，如果你問我上個季度與本季的情況，我會說本季會更加樂觀，一些事情將根據情況完成。

Knowing exactly what gets done is the trick, and I'd say we're slightly premature on that.

準確地知道要做什麼是訣竅，我想說我們在這方面還為時過早。

But from the standpoint of the industry, and then I'll talk about Hilton in a very high level way, again, it depends what happens.

但從行業的角度來看，然後我將以非常高的水平談論希爾頓，同樣，這取決於發生的情況。

But I think generally for the industry, I think it's good.

但我認為總體來說對於這個行業來說，我認為這是好的。

I think, like anything, there's a lag effect to good things happening and those flowing through the business.

我認為，就像任何事情一樣，好事的發生和業務的發展也存在滯後效應。

I can't tell you what that lag would be.

我無法告訴你延遲會是多少。

I know there is a lag, but I think it happens in 2 forms, honestly.

我知道存在滯後，但老實說，我認為它以兩種形式發生。

One is psychology, which matters, and that is the business community and others feeling better about where the economy is going.

一是心理學，這很重要，那就是商界和其他人對經濟的發展方向感覺比較好。

I think that can happen if tax reform gets done.

我認為，如果稅制改革完成，這種情況就可能發生。

I think that starts to flow through pretty quickly.

我認為這很快就會開始發生。

And then the second form of benefit to the industry is just all of what tax reform means, which means businesses have more free cash flow to play with.

然後，對該行業的第二種形式的好處正是稅收改革的全部意義，這意味著企業有更多的自由現金流可以使用。

That means that they hire more people, they invest more in plant and equipment, nonresidential fixed investment.

這意味著他們僱用更多的人，在廠房和設備以及非住宅固定投資上投資更多。

Investments should go up.

投資應該會增加。

It means if it's done the way that I'm hearing it's going to get done, you're going to have huge amounts of repatriation of money that's been trapped overseas coming home.

這意味著，如果事情按照我聽說的方式進行，那麼大量被困在海外的資金將被匯回國內。

Some portion of that is obviously going to get put to use in the same way.

其中的某些部分顯然將以同樣的方式投入使用。

And those things may take a little bit of time to trickle through because it takes time for those benefits to flow through to businesses.

這些事情可能需要一點時間才能體現出來，因為這些好處需要時間才能流向企業。

But clearly, those are benefits.

但顯然，這些都是好處。

And clearly, I think for the industry, incrementally, that helps drive positive demand.

顯然，我認為對於整個行業來說，這有助於推動積極的需求。

So I think if they get it done, and as I say, I think there's a reasonable probability that something gets done, I think net-net, it's good for the industry.

所以我認為如果他們完成了，正如我所說，我認為完成某件事的可能性是合理的，我認為網絡網絡，這對整個行業都有好處。

I think for us, again, it just depends on the nuance of thousands of moving parts.

我認為對我們來說，這再次取決於數千個活動部件的細微差別。

We've looked at all of the various proposals.

我們已經研究了所有不同的提案。

It could change, so I want to -- full disclosure, I don't -- we don't know exactly where it will come out.

它可能會改變，所以我想——完全披露，我不想——我們不知道它到底會在哪裡出現。

We're in -- deep in the dialogue and have a reasonable sense.

我們正在深入對話並有合理的感覺。

I think, the things that we're hearing being talked about, I would say, the net of it should be beneficial to us.

我認為，我們聽到正在談論的事情，我想說，它的網路應該對我們有益。

Now trying to scale how good it is for us, I won't do just because it's too early, too many moving parts, but certainly nothing that I've seen that's on the table right now.

現在，我試圖衡量它對我們有多大好處，我不會這樣做，只是因為現在還為時過早，有太多變化的部分，但當然我現在還沒有看到任何可以討論的內容。

Let me put it to positive.

讓我把它說成是正面的。

Everything I've seen that's on the table right now would be beneficial to us like a lot of other businesses because the whole point of this is to stimulate economic growth and get more hands -- more cash in the hands of businesses to make more investments and hire more people.

我現在所看到的一切都將像許多其他企業一樣對我們有利，因為這一切的重點是刺激經濟成長並吸引更多人——企業手中有更多現金以進行更多投資並僱用更多的人。

And I think we would be a net beneficiary of it.

我認為我們將成為它的淨受益者。

The next question will come from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的肖恩凱利提出。

I just wanted to talk a little bit about the select service brands.

我只是想談談精選服務品牌。

Again, this quarter, I mean, I think we all expected that the U.S. was going to be a little light, given all of the calendar shifts that were going on for the quarter.

再說一次，我的意思是，考慮到本季度發生的所有日曆變化，我認為我們都預計美國會有點清淡。

But when we sort of look into the composition, your select service brands were -- underperformed some of the broader portfolio as we look at, particularly, some of the black flagships like HGI and Hampton.

但當我們仔細研究其組成時，您選擇的服務品牌的表現遜於我們所觀察到的一些更廣泛的產品組合，特別是 HGI 和 Hampton 等一些黑色旗艦品牌。

So I guess the question is, yes, I think you mentioned in the prepared remarks a little bit about occupancy premiums there.

所以我想問題是，是的，我認為您在準備好的評論中提到了一些關於那裡的入住溢價的問題。

Is there a place in, as we progress through the balance of this year into '18 where we might be able to get some price at those brands?

隨著今年餘下的時間進入 18 年，我們是否能夠在這些品牌上獲得一些價格？

Or what's the competitive landscape looking and outlook for that side of the portfolio as we head out to next year?

或者，當我們進入明年時，該投資組合的競爭格局和景觀如何？

Yes, Shaun, it's a good -- it's obviously a good question, and those brands, on an absolute RevPAR growth basis, were at the lower end of our spectrum of brands this quarter.

是的，肖恩，這是一個很好的問題，這顯然是一個很好的問題，而這些品牌，在絕對 RevPAR 增長的基礎上，本季度處於我們品牌範圍的低端。

I think I'll hit the occupancy premium that -- or, I guess, rate part of it second.

我想我會達到入住率溢價——或者，我想，將其中一部分評為第二。

But the first part is those brands are very high RevPAR index brands, right?

但第一部分是那些品牌是 RevPAR 指數非常高的品牌，對吧？

They perform really well.

他們表現得非常好。

They start out ahead of the competition, right?

他們一開始就領先競爭對手，對吧？

So their absolute RevPAR growth in the quarter is still higher than their competitors, but the other competitors are coming up partially because they do have such high occupancy premiums.

因此，他們本季的絕對 RevPAR 成長仍然高於競爭對手，但其他競爭對手的成長部分是因為他們確實擁有如此高的入住溢價。

You also had the effect in the quarter of a benefit from the storms, which didn't inure to those brands as much because they are already so far ahead in occupancy.

在本季度，風暴也帶來了好處，但這些品牌並沒有那麼適應，因為它們的入住率已經遙遙領先。

So the other hotels were filling up more quickly or, I guess, more -- incrementally more than they were.

因此，其他酒店的客滿速度更快，或者，我猜，更多——比它們逐漸多。

In terms of the rate side, what you're seeing in those brands, I think, is what you're seeing, overall, which is that their recovery has not been as strong and GDP growth has not been as strong.

就利率而言，我認為，你在這些品牌中看到的，就是你在整體上看到的，那就是它們的復甦並沒有那麼強勁，GDP 成長也沒有那麼強勁。

And as a result, their inflationary environment has been quite low.

因此，他們的通膨環境相當低。

So you haven't seen as much rate growth.

所以你還沒有看到那麼多的利率成長。

You should see -- continue to see rate contribute more to RevPAR growth in the U.S. this year.

您應該看到，今年費率對美國每間可用房收入 (RevPAR) 成長的貢獻將繼續增加。

It's almost 100% of our RevPAR growth is from rate, less so outside the U.S. So it's a bit of a mix bag with those brands.

我們的 RevPAR 成長幾乎 100% 來自利率，在美國以外的地區則較少，因此這些品牌有點混合在一起。

But at the end of the today, those brands are really strong brands.

但歸根究底，這些品牌都是真正的強勢品牌。

They're still preference by owners and lenders in a big way and they should continue to perform really well for us.

他們仍然受到業主和貸款人的極大青睞，他們應該繼續為我們表現出色。

The next question will come from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

下一個問題將來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的比爾·克勞。

Chris, we're not that far away from hitting kind of a 3-year anniversary of the time at which we identified weaker corporate demand.

克里斯，距離我們發現企業需求疲軟的三週年紀念日已經不遠了。

And we're all still trying to figure out exactly why.

我們仍在試圖找出確切原因。

And I know economic growth hasn't been that good, but the confidence is up, corporate profits up.

我知道經濟成長並沒有那麼好，但信心增強，企業利潤增加。

You've highlighted many of those things.

您已經強調了其中許多事情。

So I'm just wondering, in your discussions with your clients, in your special corporate negotiated rates, is there anything you're uncovering that helps to explain what's this weakness at this point in the cycle?

所以我只是想知道，在您與客戶的討論中，在您的特殊公司協商費率中，您是否發現了任何有助於解釋週期中此時此刻的弱點的內容？

And maybe growth is coming from small companies, not big companies or something like that, but anything that you can give us?

也許成長來自小公司，而不是大公司或類似的公司，但你能給我們什麼嗎？

Yes, I mean, it's a really good -- is the question in terms of, going forward, what is going to change to get the business transient moving at a faster pace.

是的，我的意思是，這確實是一個很好的問題，即未來需要做出哪些改變才能使業務瞬態更快地發展。

And we've studied it like crazy.

我們瘋狂地研究它。

I've talked personally, as have our teams, extensively to all of our corporate clients, big, small, medium, everything.

我個人和我們的團隊都曾與我們所有的企業客戶進行過廣泛的交談，無論是大的、小的、中的、一切的。

So I don't have any -- I'd love to tell you I have some brilliant new insight, but I don't.

所以我沒有——我很想告訴你我有一些絕妙的新見解，但我沒有。

I think it's really a consequence of even though you see broader economic indicators and nonresidential fixed investment and those things sort of improving, I think it's just been -- I have used this before, I think, on prior calls, certainly, as I've talked to folks, it's still been a little bit of a cautionary flag out there.

我認為這確實是一個結果，儘管你看到更廣泛的經濟指標和非住宅固定投資以及這些事情有所改善，但我認為這只是——我之前在之前的電話會議上使用過這個，當然，因為我'與人們交談過，這仍然是一個警告信號。

So whether you're big, small or medium-sized business, even though there is some optimism out there and maybe, certainly, tax reform would -- as I said, improve that psychology, there's enough stuff going on politically and globally that we all are reading about and we all know about that I think it just -- it's holding people back from that incremental decision to spend, and that includes incremental spending in travel.

因此，無論你是大型、小型還是中型企業，儘管存在一些樂觀情緒，而且稅制改革也許（正如我所說）肯定會改善這種心理，但政治上和全球範圍內正在發生的事情足以讓我們所有人們都在讀到這一點，我們都知道，我認為這只是——它阻礙了人們做出增量消費的決定，其中包括增量旅行支出。

As we've talked to our corporate clients, it's been interesting, not particularly new, and I've talked to a bunch of them.

當我們與我們的企業客戶交談時，這很有趣，但並不是特別新鮮，而且我已經與他們中的許多人交談過。

I think what they're saying, and you heard it in our prepared comments, we think we'll have sort of 2% to 3% growth with them.

我認為他們所說的，以及你在我們準備好的評論中聽到的，我們認為我們將與他們一起實現 2% 到 3% 的增長。

That's all rate.

這就是全部利率。

Okay, you wanted -- somebody asked where is the rate, well, there it is.

好吧，你想——有人問價格在哪裡，嗯，就在那裡。

That's all rate, sort of quasi-inflationary increase.

這就是利率，有點準通貨膨脹的成長。

Simply because I think when you talk to them, they say, "Hey, we're reasonably optimistic about our business and the world, but my gosh, a lot of things is going on, we need to see things stabilize a little bit." I think people's expectations at this moment as we're talking to them, pretax reform, et cetera, is -- I'm willing to accept the rate increase, not a big one, but sort of inflationary.

只是因為我認為當你與他們交談時，他們會說：“嘿，我們對我們的業務和世界相當樂觀，但天哪，很多事情正在發生，我們需要看到事情穩定一點。 ”我認為，當我們與他們交談時，人們對稅前改革等的期望是──我願意接受升息，不是大幅升息，而是某種程度的通膨。

And my expectation is, and I'm aggregating a whole bunch of different people and a bunch of different categories, obviously, but that I think volumes will be relatively constant.

我的期望是，顯然，我聚集了一大堆不同的人和一堆不同的類別，但我認為數量將相對穩定。

And so that's sort of what we've built in as I described a bit earlier in my answer to the prior question, that's sort of what we've built into our expectations for next year.

正如我在回答前一個問題時所描述的那樣，這就是我們已經建立的內容，這就是我們對明年的期望所建立的內容。

To get them moving a little bit faster, I think, one, it's having a real -- continuing to see an uptick in the broader economic environment.

我認為，為了讓他們行動得更快一點，第一，更廣泛的經濟環境要持續好轉。

I think getting -- posting some wins on the board, I think, honestly, I don't want to put everything on the shoulders of tax reform, but I think that is the one where you have the highest probability and where you can have the most significant impact to sort of change the psychology a little bit to make people feel like, "Hey, we're getting some things done.

我認為在董事會上發表一些勝利，老實說，我不想把一切都放在稅收改革的肩上，但我認為這是你有最高可能性和你可以擁有的地方最重要的影響是稍微改變一下心理，讓人們感覺，「嘿，我們正在完成一些事情。

It's going to be really good for me.

這對我來說真的有好處。

My business is going to benefit from it, and so I can loosen the purse strings a little bit." I think having said that, we're growing.

我的生意將從中受益，這樣我就可以稍微放鬆一點錢包了。

I mean, special corporates are growing.

我的意思是，特殊企業正在成長。

You see business transient this year sort of growing, overall, in the 1% to 2% range.

您會看到今年的業務瞬態總體上在 1% 到 2% 的範圍內成長。

So it's not flat or going backwards.

所以它不是平坦的或倒退的。

It's still positive, but not nearly what we would like or what you would typically see at this stage of the cycle.

這仍然是積極的，但遠不是我們想要的，也不是您在週期的這個階段通常會看到的。

But I think this is different just because of the noise that's in the system and the overall caution.

但我認為這只是因為系統中的噪音和整體的謹慎而有所不同。

I'm an optimist by nature, everybody on the call knows that.

我本質上是一個樂觀主義者，參加電話會議的每個人都知道這一點。

But I am optimistic that, particularly tax reform and other, you start to see things settle down and I think it'll be helpful to the business.

但我樂觀地認為，特別是稅改和其他改革，你會開始看到事情穩定下來，我認為這將對企業有所幫助。

But we haven't really -- I can't say that I can look at data.

但我們還沒有真正——我不能說我可以查看數據。

I mean, I can look at -- if I want to sort of be super optimistic, I can look at certain weeks and a little bit of a trend that it's getting a little bit better.

我的意思是，我可以看看——如果我想變得超級樂觀，我可以看看某些星期和一些趨勢，表明情況正在變得更好。

But I would say, I'm getting ahead of myself to say that I'd say the data, the bulk of the data, which has been somewhat choppy, still suggest it's been positive but relatively stable.

但我想說，我有點言過其實了，我想說的是，大部分數據雖然有些波動，但仍然表明它是積極的，但相對穩定。

We haven't really seen any kind of material uptick.

我們還沒有真正看到任何形式的物質增長。

The next question will come from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的費利西亞·亨德里克斯。

Chris, in an industry that doesn't have a lot of visibility, we rely on metrics like GDP and corporate demand to kind of try to form the forecast, and you talk about those a lot.

克里斯，在一個沒有太多可見性的行業中，我們依靠 GDP 和企業需求等指標來嘗試形成預測，你經常談論這些。

And I'm just curious because it seems like corporate demand -- I'm sorry, I meant not to say nonresidential fixed income.

我只是很好奇，因為這似乎是企業需求——抱歉，我並不是說非住宅固定收益。

And it seems like corporate demand this year has lagged nonresidential fixed investment.

今年的企業需求似乎落後於非住宅固定投資。

So I'm just wondering why you think it wasn't as correlated this year.

所以我只是想知道為什麼你認為今年的相關性不那麼高。

Is there a lag, or is it maybe not the best metric to look at?

是否存在滯後，或者這可能不是最好的衡量標準？

It's a really good question, and I've been pushing our teams on that, and we've studied -- the best analysis that we've come up with is the correlation is still very, very strong, but it's a longer lag in a low inflationary environment, and that's the environment that we have been in and we can likely will be in for a while.

這是一個非常好的問題，我一直在推動我們的團隊解決這個問題，我們已經研究過——我們得出的最好的分析是相關性仍然非常非常強，但它有一個更長的滯後期。

So I do think it will flow through.

所以我確實認為它會通過。

Correlation in a low inflationary environment will mean it probably will be a lower correlation and a longer lag.

低通膨環境下的相關性意味著相關性可能較低且滯後時間較長。

So if you keep seeing growth in nonresidential fixed investment, eventually, you're going to see some benefit flowing through to hotel demand.

因此，如果您持續看到非住宅固定投資的成長，最終您將看到飯店需求帶來一些好處。

Looks like a good basis, and then, combined with GDP that's (inaudible)

看起來是一個很好的基礎，然後，與 GDP 結合（聽不清楚）

It's still the best, I mean, when you do the math and look at the R-squared, it's not to be too nerdy about it, but that's how our guys really -- I mean, it's still -- those are still the best ways we can find.

它仍然是最好的，我的意思是，當你進行數學計算並查看R 平方時，不要對此過於書呆子氣，但這就是我們的人真正的方式- 我的意思是，它仍然- 那些仍然是最好的我們可以找到的方法。

You're right, it has detached a bit and so I was -- Kevin and I were pushing the teams.

你是對的，它已經有點脫離了，所以我——凱文和我正在推動團隊。

And when you do the analysis, it really has a lot to do -- if you look at it over 30 or 40 years against different inflationary environments, that's as best we can tell, where it starts to break apart, at least in terms of creating greater lags.

當你進行分析時，它確實有很多事情要做——如果你在 30 或 40 年間針對不同的通膨環境進行觀察，我們就能最好地判斷它從哪裡開始崩潰，至少在以下方面：造成更大的滯後。

The next question will come from Brian Dobson of Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題將由 Nomura Instinet 的 Brian Dobson 提出。

So when you're looking at supply growth, is there any sign that, that might be slowing in urban markets where supply has been high and pricing has been weak?

那麼，當你觀察供應成長時，是否有任何跡象表明，供應量高且價格疲軟的城市市場的供應成長可能正在放緩？

And then in terms of your own growth out over the next 2 years, which of your brands are driving that growth?

那麼就您未來兩年的成長而言，您的哪些品牌正在推動這種成長？

And how have developers received your new brands?

開發人員如何接受您的新品牌？

Yes, thanks, Brian.

是的，謝謝，布萊恩。

So the first one is, I think you are seeing indications that -- well, certainly, new projects getting signed up in urban environments are more difficult to finance and you had a bunch of market where supply has become a little bit of a problem.

第一個是，我認為你看到的跡象表明——嗯，當然，在城市環境中簽約的新項目更難融資，而且你有很多市場，供應已經成為一個問題。

So obviously, developers are looking elsewhere.

顯然，開發商正在尋找其他地方。

So you're still seeing deliveries in some of those markets, right?

所以你仍然看到其中一些市場的交付，對吧？

New York, Chicago, the oil patch, you're still delivering some of that.

紐約、芝加哥、石油礦區，你們仍在提供其中的一些。

So on a lag, you're still going to see actual supply deliveries continue a little bit.

因此，在滯後的情況下，您仍然會看到實際供應量繼續略有增加。

But I think if you look at projections more broadly outside of urban, you're starting to see the forecasters or the forecasts are starting to level off.

但我認為，如果你更廣泛地觀察城市以外的預測，你會開始看到預測者或預測開始趨於平穩。

So I think what the industry consultants would predict is that 2019 is going to be the peak year.

所以我認為產業顧問預測2019年將是高峰年。

And we'd probably -- I'd probably personally take the under on that a little bit, meaning I think '18 and '19 will be about the same, and then you'll sort of see them be a collective peak going forward.

我們可能會 - 我個人可能會對此有所不同，這意味著我認為 18 和 19 會大致相同，然後你會看到它們成為未來的集體高峰。

For us, in terms of our brands, you still have the core Hilton brand and Hampton that are the largest part of the pipeline and, thus, will be the largest deliveries.

對於我們來說，就我們的品牌而言，您仍然擁有核心希爾頓品牌和漢普頓品牌，它們是頻道中最大的部分，因此將是最大的交付量。

But of course, we have new brands that are ramping quickly with Tru and Home2 and some of our conversion brands.

當然，我們的新品牌正在迅速崛起，如 Tru 和 Home2 以及我們的一些轉換品牌。

So I think you'll continue to see our supply growth and our deliveries be more of the same.

因此，我認為您將繼續看到我們的供應增長和交付量基本上保持不變。

The trends will continue.

這種趨勢將持續下去。

The next question will come from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）提出。

This is somewhat a bigger picture question.

這是一個更大的問題。

But given all the efforts on the connected room and app, how do you think about the right amount or even general benchmarking of technology spend?

但考慮到在互聯房間和應用程式上所做的所有努力，您如何看待技術支出的適當金額甚至一般基準？

And could you provide any additional detail on kind of the major CapEx buckets this year and how that can evolve going forward?

您能否提供有關今年主要資本支出類別的更多詳細資訊以及未來將如何發展？

Sure.

當然。

I mean, technology makes up a huge component of how we want to differentiate ourselves broadly.

我的意思是，科技是我們如何實現廣泛差異化的重要組成部分。

I mean, I think it's a combination, obviously, of making sure our physical products, existing and new, are exactly what customers want, and we're either launching or adapting to their needs.

我的意思是，我認為這顯然是確保我們現有的和新的實體產品正是客戶想要的，並且我們要么推出要么適應他們的需求。

The physical, combined with service, that is differentiated and very consistent and very high quality, that our loyalty, as we continue to evolve, Honors becomes much -- increasingly more relevant, that we're interacting with customers in a deeper, more frequent way.

實體與服務結合，是差異化的、非常一致的、非常高品質的，隨著我們不斷發展，我們的忠誠度、榮譽變得越來越重要，我們與客戶進行更深入、更頻繁的互動方式。

And last but not least, using the technology as a differentiator, recognizing that we can use technology in ways we talked about today in our prepared comments, in the on-property experience to make it more seamless, better, more fun, more efficient.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，利用技術作為差異化因素，認識到我們可以按照我們今天在準備好的評論中討論的方式在酒店體驗中使用技術，使其更加無縫、更好、更有趣、更有效率。

But also, we have unique opportunities to talk to our customers in ways we never have been able to before, before and after they're with us.

而且，我們還有獨特的機會以我們在客戶與我們合作之前、之前和之後從未有過的方式與他們交談。

And technology, obviously, offers us a way not only to talk to them, but to engage them in different ways on a more frequent basis.

顯然，科技不僅為我們提供了一種與他們交談的方式，而且還為我們提供了一種以不同方式更頻繁地與他們互動的方式。

So we're front of mind.

所以我們是最重要的。

Obviously, all with an objective of being able to continue to drive more market share, more profitability for owners and in so doing, attracting more capital into our system to accelerate our growth.

顯然，所有這些都是為了能夠繼續推動更多的市場份額，為業主帶來更多的利潤，並以此吸引更多的資本進入我們的系統以加速我們的成長。

So you're going to continue to see us make very large investments in technology.

因此，您將繼續看到我們在技術方面進行大量投資。

The bulk of those investments in terms of the dollars are really coming out of our all of our program and technology funds that come from contributions that are made by all of our owners on a global basis and not as much as what you see in the pure CapEx number that you see in the $150 million to $200 million CapEx number that you're seeing.

就美元而言，這些投資的大部分實際上來自我們所有的計劃和技術資金，這些資金來自我們所有所有者在全球範圍內做出的貢獻，而不是你在純粹的項目中看到的那麼多。

Then when we talk about our CapEx fees, that's the -- the amount in technology there is probably $20 million to $40 million, I'm looking at Kevin, something like that.

然後，當我們談論我們的資本支出費用時，技術方面的費用可能是 2000 萬到 4000 萬美元，我正在看凱文，類似的東西。

And that's really more corporate systems of all sorts, HR, financial systems, et cetera, that are really Hilton investments.

這其實是更多各種各樣的企業系統，人力資源、財務系統等等，這些都是希爾頓的真正投資。

I think you'll continue to see that level of investment there.

我認為你會繼續看到那裡的投資水準。

The big investments, which honestly are 10x to 15x or more of that number that we're making in terms of the innovation and what we're doing with technology in the hotels is happening in the funded side of the business.

老實說，我們在酒店技術創新和技術方面所做的巨額投資是在業務的融資方面進行的，是我們的 10 倍到 15 倍或更多。

And I think you're going to continue to -- we have a huge amount of resources to play with.

我認為你會繼續下去——我們有大量的資源可以利用。

I think, you're going to continue to see us increase spending there somewhat, but really, just to make sure that how we're allocating dollars and what we spend it on and how we prioritize it is done -- is appropriate for what we're trying to get done to deliver great experiences for customers.

我認為，你會繼續看到我們在這方面增加一定程度的支出，但實際上，只是為了確保我們如何分配資金、花在什麼地方以及如何確定其優先順序——適合於什麼我們正在努力為客戶提供出色的體驗。

We got plenty of money in that bucket to do the right things.

我們有足夠的錢去做正確的事。

It really is making sure we just focus on the right things and prioritize properly.

它確實是確保我們只專注於正確的事情並正確確定優先順序。

The next question will come from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫提出。

So 2 more questions on 2018.

還有 2 個關於 2018 年的問題。

First, Chris, you were at the Skift Conference recently and you talked about some potential new brand launches.

首先，Chris，您最近參加了 Skift 會議，並談到了一些潛在的新品牌發布。

Can you just tell us your expectations for 2018 and potential size of new brands?

您能告訴我們您對2018年的期望以及新品牌的潛在規模嗎？

And then, can you talk about capital returns for 2018, just the gives and takes of what will drive capital return size.

然後，您能否談談 2018 年的資本回報，以及推動資本回報規模的因素。

Yes, yes, thanks.

是的，是的，謝謝。

I'll take the first and maybe ask Kevin to talk about the second.

我會討論第一個，也許請凱文談談第二個。

On new brands, nothing new from what we've talked about on prior calls.

關於新品牌，我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的內容並沒有什麼新內容。

We're always working on lots of different ideas.

我們一直在研究許多不同的想法。

I'd say we have 4 new brand ideas that are sort of in the skunk works and under heavy development.

我想說的是，我們有 4 個新的品牌創意，這些創意還處於初步階段，正在大力開發。

We've talked about those, what I affectionately call our Hilton Plus, sort of a Hilton Plus brand, a urban micro brand, which I did talk about at Skift, a luxury collection brand and a -- I think that's all.

我們已經討論過這些，我親切地稱之為我們的 Hilton Plus，有點像 Hilton Plus 品牌，一個城市微型品牌，我在 Skift 上確實談到過，一個豪華系列品牌，我想僅此而已。

Sorry, luxury and lifestyle, I was saying, I have 3 or 4, so luxury, lifestyle.

抱歉，奢侈和生活方式，我是說，我有 3 或 4 個，所以奢侈和生活方式。

I'd say 3 of the 4 of those -- the first 3, but luxury lifestyle being the fourth, we're way down the development path on luxury lifestyle.

我想說的是其中 4 個中的 3 個——前 3 個，但奢華生活方式是第四個，我們在奢華生活方式的發展道路上已經走得很遠了。

We're not rushing as much because we have a number of different things going on in the other 3 that are keeping us busy.

我們沒有那麼匆忙，因為其他三個地方正在發生許多不同的事情，讓我們很忙。

I would expect, and I don't want to -- it's not a hard commitment, but I would expect probably the launch of 2 or 3 of those 4 during 2018.

我希望（而且我不想）——這不是一個硬性承諾，但我希望在 2018 年期間可能會推出這 4 個中的 2 個或 3 個。

And it sort of depends.

這有點取決於。

It's hard to put a hard date on it because we've just launched, really, Tru and -- I mean, we've launched it a couple of years ago, but we have the first opening that are going on this year.

很難確定一個確切的日期，因為我們剛剛推出，真的，Tru，而且——我的意思是，我們幾年前就推出了它，但我們今年將首次開業。

Just launched Tapestry this year at our first opening.

今年我們首次開業時剛剛推出了 Tapestry。

We're still cranking up with Curio and even Home2, which is doing incredibly well.

我們仍在努力開發 Curio，甚至是 Home2，它的表現非常好。

We've had 5 new brands over a relatively short period of time, 2 effectively this year.

我們在相對較短的時間內推出了 5 個新品牌，今年就有 2 個。

So we want to make sure, I say, pretty consistently that we give them a proper birth.

所以我說，我們要確保我們始終如一地讓他們正常出生。

They're all doing well, but we want to give them a little bit more room, finish the development on these others.

他們都做得很好，但我們想給他們多一點空間，完成其他人的開發。

So I would say 2 or 3 of the 4, I think, are highly likely at some point next year.

所以我想說，我認為這 4 個中的 2 個或 3 個極有可能在明年的某個時候出現。

And as we get into the beginning of next year, I think we'd give you a little bit more specificity around that.

當我們進入明年初時，我想我們會為您提供更多具體資訊。

Yes.

是的。

And then Thomas, on capital return, as Chris mentioned earlier, we haven't finished our budgeting process.

然後托馬斯，關於資本回報，正如克里斯之前提到的，我們還沒有完成預算過程。

So it's a little bit premature and we're certainly not giving guidance.

所以現在還為時過早，我們當然不會提供指導。

But I think if you look at what we're saying about RevPAR growth and NOG combined for next year, I think it's safe to say that EBITDA will grow next year based on our outlook and, thus, free cash flow will grow.

但我認為，如果你看看我們所說的明年的 RevPAR 增長和 NOG 的總和，我認為可以肯定地說，根據我們的前景，明年 EBITDA 將增長，因此自由現金流將會增長。

We expect our return on capital next year to be directionally comparable with this year.

我們預計明年的資本報酬率將與今年相當。

And I think the thing to remember about that and the reason is we'll probably be directionally comparable even with growth, is that we had some excess cash at the beginning of this year left over from the spend that is part of our capital return for this year.

我認為要記住的一點是，即使在增長的情況下，我們也可能在方向上具有可比性，因為我們在今年年初的支出中留下了一些多餘的現金，這是我們資本回報的一部分今年。

The next question will come from Smedes Rose of Citi.

下一個問題將由花旗銀行的斯梅德斯·羅斯提出。

I was just wondering if you could update us on the bookings channels, given all the efforts you've made around the loyalty programs and the apps and the technology which you touched on earlier.

我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下預訂管道的最新情況，考慮到您在忠誠度計劃、應用程式以及您之前提到的技術方面所做的所有努力。

Are you seeing a movement to more customers booking direct through your Hilton.com and away from, say, OTAs or other channels?

您是否發現越來越多的客戶不再透過 OTA 或其他管道直接透過 Hilton.com 預訂？

And if you can, could you quantify the move?

如果可以的話，您能量化一下這一舉動嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I don't have all the most recent data in front of me.

我面前沒有所有最新數據。

But I would say, directionally, things are going really well with our book direct campaign.

但我想說，從方向來看，我們的圖書直銷活動進展非常順利。

We continue to see tremendous growth coming in through Honors, which is the way to get it started.

我們繼續看到透過榮譽獲得的巨大增長，這是開始的方式。

We've been doing more than 1 million new members a month.

我們每個月新增會員超過 100 萬。

We're up to about 70 million members.

我們約有 7000 萬會員。

We're almost up 30%, I think it's 26% to 27% year-to-date growth in Honors.

我們幾乎增長了 30%，我認為今年迄今為止的榮譽增長了 26% 到 27%。

And that, obviously, as we get people onto the system, gives us an opportunity to talk to them and engage with them in a very different way, which we are, including making sure they understand that they get the best value with discounts, with points, with all of the technological advantages that we've talked about in terms of digital check-in, room selection, digital key, all of those things that are offered to Honors members.

顯然，當我們讓人們進入這個系統時，我們就有機會以一種非常不同的方式與他們交談並與他們互動，包括確保他們明白他們可以通過折扣獲得最大的價值，點，以及我們在數字登記、房間選擇、數位鑰匙以及向榮譽會員提供的所有這些方面討論過的所有技術優勢。

And I think it's going really well.

我認為一切進展順利。

If you look at the channel shift over the last couple of years, it continues the pace -- the highest growth that we're seeing on a year-to-date basis continues to be in our direct channels.

如果你看看過去幾年的頻道轉變，你會發現它仍在繼續這種步伐——我們今年迄今為止看到的最高成長仍然是在我們的直接管道中。

And I think we'll continue to see that if we do our job.

我認為，如果我們做好我們的工作，我們將繼續看到這一點。

As I've said lots of different times over the last couple of years, this is not going -- we'll be happy to talk about it quarter-to-quarter and totally appropriate it to get the question and answer it.

正如我在過去幾年中多次說過的那樣，這不會發生——我們很樂意按季度討論它，並完全適當地利用它來回答問題。

But we'll be talking about this for years and years to come.

但我們將在未來的許多年裡討論這個問題。

This will never end.

這永遠不會結束。

It wasn't a sort of a onetime surge.

這並不是一次性的激增。

It's about making sure that we're always offering our customers the best value and delivering the best experience.

這是為了確保我們始終為客戶提供最佳價值並提供最佳體驗。

And as much as we can, as I said, engaging in a deeper, more frequent way with them to have a very direct relationship, we think that's important.

正如我所說，我們盡可能以更深入、更頻繁的方式與他們接觸，建立非常直接的關係，我們認為這很重要。

That doesn't mean we don't want to have relationships with distribution partners.

這並不意味著我們不想與分銷合作夥伴建立關係。

We do.

我們的確是。

We have literally hundreds of them around the world and we have good relationships with them, and there is a certain segment of our business where it's very helpful to us to work with them as long as we have reasonable economic terms and we'll continue to do so.

我們在世界各地有數百家這樣的公司，我們與他們有著良好的關係，在我們的業務的某些領域，只要我們有合理的經濟條件，與他們合作對我們非常有幫助，我們將繼續這樣做。

But the more that we can have those direct relationships, the better, not just because of the cost of distribution, that's obviously an element of it, but just the experience for our customer that we can have much more control over the experience.

但是，我們擁有的直接關係越多越好，這不僅是因為分銷成本，這顯然是其中的一個因素，而且還因為我們可以更好地控制客戶的體驗。

So you're going to see us -- you're going to see lots of new things coming from us on our marketing campaigns, on what you're doing on the digital side, overall technology.

所以你會看到我們——你會在我們的行銷活動、數位方面、整體技術方面看到很多新東西。

We've talked about some of them today, things that we're doing with Honors, like connecting to Amazon and points pooling.

我們今天討論了其中的一些內容，我們正在與 Honors 一起做的事情，例如連接到亞馬遜和積分池。

All of these things are really all part of that equation of giving our customers more reasons to want to engage more often, more deeply with us and to have all the more reason to have a direct relationship with us.

所有這些實際上都是讓我們的客戶有更多理由想要更頻繁、更深入地與我們互動，並有更多理由與我們建立直接關係的一部分。

And we think it'll ultimately drive distribution cost down and is driving distribution cost down, to be clear, it is, but it will also ultimately drive share up because it will drive more loyalty.

我們認為，這最終將降低分銷成本，並且正在推動分銷成本下降，明確地說，確實如此，但它最終也將推動份額上升，因為它將提高忠誠度。

The next question will come from Jeff Donnelly of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的傑夫唐納利。

Hilton and other brands certainly have a few initiatives in progress, such as revamping cancellation policies, I guess, you call them nonrefundable reservations.

希爾頓和其他品牌肯定有一些正在進行中的舉措，例如修改取消政策，我猜，您稱其為不可退款預訂。

And I've heard that you and maybe other folks are revamping like the rewards redemption programs out there that will make it a little more favorable to orders.

我聽說你和其他人可能正在改進獎勵兌換計劃，這將使其對訂單更有利。

I'm just curious, for Hilton, do you expect that these programs will be adopted system-wide effectively at some point in 2018?

我只是好奇，對於希爾頓來說，您是否預計這些計劃將在 2018 年的某個時候在全系統範圍內有效採用？

And, I guess, which of them do you think ultimately could be the most beneficial to room rates or RevPAR?

我想，您認為其中哪一個最終對房價或 RevPAR 最有利？

Well, Jeff, I'll take the cancellation policy first.

好吧，傑夫，我先接受取消政策。

We did institute a new cancellation policy this year.

我們今年確實制定了新的取消政策。

We're actually in the third quarter where we're now at a combination of 48 and 72 hours, depending on the market.

事實上，我們現在處於第三季度，根據市場狀況，我們的工作時間分別為 48 小時和 72 小時。

And earlier -- it's early days, but the early returns are that those are working, those are helping stem the tide of really short-term cancellations.

早些時候——現在還為時過早，但早期的回報是這些措施正在發揮作用，這些措施正在幫助阻止真正短期取消的浪潮。

So you're seeing sort of 1-day out cancellations down a few points as we get into that.

因此，當我們討論這個問題時，您會發現一日遊取消數量下降了幾個百分點。

We're also working on -- I'm not exactly sure what you're referring to that you're hearing, but we're working on and testing, I think Chris has spoken about this before on calls, testing a new way to price, where maybe the customer is paying a little bit more or a little bit less in advance for different levels of flexibility.

我們也在努力——我不太確定你所聽到的是什麼，但我們正在努力和測試，我想克里斯之前在電話會議上談到過這個，測試一種新的方式價格，客戶可能會為不同等級的靈活性提前支付更多或更少的費用。

And then, on the Honors side, we've made changes in recent years on the redemption formula to make it more fair to all owners whether they're in high occupancy markets or otherwise.

然後，在榮譽方面，我們近年來對兌換公式進行了更改，以使所有業主更加公平，無論他們處於高入住率市場還是其他市場。

But I don't know if you want to elaborate more on that.

但我不知道你是否想詳細說明這一點。

No, I don't think there's any major changes in the redemption side of Honors to speak about at this point.

不，我認為目前榮譽的兌換方面沒有任何重大變化可以談論。

I think Kevin covered the others.

我認為凱文涵蓋了其他人。

Is there anything else, Jeff, that you were trying to get at?

傑夫，你還有什麼想了解的嗎？

No, I think that's the large part of it.

不，我認為這就是其中的很大一部分。

I was curious, I know it's early, but I mean, do you think the cancellation policy, has it been successful in kind of lengthening booking window?

我很好奇，我知道現在還早，但我的意思是，您認為取消政策在延長預訂窗口方面是否成功？

I mean, how do you guys kind of think about it as the desired goal?

我的意思是，你們如何看待它作為期望的目標？

It's really early days, okay, but meaning months in.

現在還為時過早，好吧，但這意味著幾個月後。

But it's definitely working.

但它絕對有效。

And I think that, as Kevin said, in concert with rolling out next year, changes in sort of how we price all our products, sort of taking it from the 48 or 72 hours to 7 days, and then 7 days and beyond, with a flexible or semi-flexible product pricing approach, I think, is going to help accelerate -- help benefit us and deal with this issue in a more meaningful way, and ultimately, in a way that I think drives higher growth.

我認為，正如凱文所說，隨著明年的推出，我們所有產品的定價方式都會發生變化，從 48 或 72 小時縮短到 7 天，然後是 7 天及更長，我認為，靈活或半靈活的產品定價方法將有助於加速- 幫助我們受益並以更有意義的方式處理這個問題，並最終以我認為推動更高增長的方式。

Just because as we look at the behavior of customers as we're testing it, as we're doing it at a fairly large scale throughout different pockets of the portfolio, we like what we see.

只是因為當我們在測試時觀察客戶的行為時，當我們在投資組合的不同部分進行相當大的規模時，我們喜歡我們所看到的。

And I think net-net, it has an opportunity to incrementally make customers happier by giving them choice and drive a better RevPAR growth.

我認為 net-net 有機會透過為客戶提供選擇來逐步讓客戶更滿意，並推動 RevPAR 更好的成長。

Now you're going to say, give me more details.

現在你會說，給我更多細節。

But I'm going to say I'm not yet because we're deep into the testing.

但我想說我還沒有，因為我們正在深入測試。

I think we're going to complete it the next 30 or 45 days.

我想我們將在接下來的 30 或 45 天內完成它。

And if all goes well, it's something we'll describe in far greater detail because we'll be rolling it out next year.

如果一切順利，我們將更詳細地描述它，因為我們將在明年推出它。

The next question will come from Robin Farley of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

Two things.

兩件事情。

One is I wanted to just understand the group pace a little bit better.

一是我想更了解團隊節奏。

I know you said it's up during the quarter.

我知道你說過這個季度是上升的。

I'm wondering how much of that may just benefiting from the holiday shift that makes Q4 a better group quarter than last years.

我想知道其中有多少可能只是受益於假期轉變，這使得第四季度的集團季度比去年更好。

Can you talk about what bookings that came in during Q3 were for 2018 versus last year in Q3, for the forward year?

您能否談談 2018 年第三季的預訂量與去年第三季的預訂量以及未來一年的預訂量？

Yes, Robin, I don't have the exact breakdown in front of me.

是的，羅賓，我面前沒有確切的詳細資料。

The booking -- pace was up in the quarter, both into the fourth quarter and for all future periods.

本季的預訂量有所上升，無論是第四季度還是未來所有時期。

And as far as 2018, how it's looking right now, it's actually -- 2018 position is up more so than 2017 position is going to -- we think is going to end up on the whole.

就 2018 年而言，從目前的情況來看，實際上，2018 年的排名比 2017 年的排名上升得更多，我們認為總體上會是這樣。

So up sort of low single digits, but up better than it is this year.

因此，漲幅有點低，但比今年好。

Okay, that's great.

好的，太好了。

And then lastly, some of the upside in your guidance rates since your RevPAR range didn't change with sort of non-RevPAR related fees.

最後，由於您的 RevPAR 範圍並未因非 RevPAR 相關費用而變化，因此您的指導費率有一些上行空間。

Is that -- should we think of that as recurring?

我們是否應該認為這種情況會反覆出現？

Or was that where they're just sort of onetime benefit to the upside in your guidance today?

或者說，這只是您今天的指導中的一次性好處？

;

;

You're talking about -- overall, there were a little bit of unique items, a little bit of FX and a little bit of timing.

你說的是——總的來說，有一些獨特的物品、一些特效和一些時間安排。

But largely, as I said -- I think I said in my prepared remarks, largely, performance driven.

但很大程度上，正如我所說，我想我在準備好的發言中說過，很大程度上是績效驅動的。

And the reference to non-RevPAR driven fees, we have a bunch of non-RevPAR-driven fees, including franchise sales and license fees, and you saw a little bit of benefit in the quarter, particularly from license fees.

說到非 RevPAR 驅動的費用，我們有很多非 RevPAR 驅動的費用，包括特許經營銷售和許可費，您在本季度看到了一些好處，特別是許可費。

Next question will come from Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

So we've see the industry pipeline, the growth rates start to decelerate a bit year-to-date and then your number today is sort of (inaudible).

因此，我們已經看到行業管道，年初至今的成長率開始放緩，然後您今天的數字有點（聽不清楚）。

What do you make of this trend?

您如何看待這股趨勢？

And how should we think about your unit growth beyond next year?

我們該如何考慮明年以後的單位成長？

I mean, if I look at our numbers, we didn't really see any meaningful deceleration.

我的意思是，如果我看一下我們的數字，我們並沒有真正看到任何有意義的減速。

I think we were -- pipeline growth, 13%, and I think last quarter, maybe 15%.

我認為我們的管道成長率為 13%，我認為上個季度可能為 15%。

So I guess technically, that's a decel, but I don't really -- I think that's just quarter-to-quarter nuance of things going on.

所以我想從技術上講，這是一個減速，但我實際上並不——我認為這只是每個季度發生的事情的細微差別。

I don't think that's happening.

我不認為這種情況會發生。

My expectation is that you will continue to see our pipeline grow over time.

我的期望是，隨著時間的推移，您將繼續看到我們的管道不斷增長。

Obviously, it has a lot to do with what's going on in the various regions of the world, but I think you'll continue to see us add to the pipeline at a rate that is somewhere in that zone.

顯然，這與世界各個地區正在發生的事情有很大關係，但我認為您將繼續看到我們以該區域某個地方的速度添加到管道中。

In terms of our net unit growth, as I talked about in the prepared comments, we have pretty good sightlines.

就我們的淨單位成長而言，正如我在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，我們有相當好的視野。

Just because if you think about it, everything that we're going to deliver next year and a whole bunch of stuff that we're going to deliver into '19 is either under construction or financed and getting ready to go under construction with the meaningful piece -- the meaningful gap being conversions.

只是因為如果你想一想，我們明年要交付的所有東西以及我們要在 19 年交付的一大堆東西要么正在建設中，要么已經融資並準備好進行有意義的建設一塊——有意義的差距是轉化。

We've been doing roughly 20% to 25% conversions a year.

我們每年的轉換率大約是 20% 到 25%。

We've done that or more reliably.

我們已經做到了或更可靠地做到了。

We have new conversion brands that are working with Curio, with Tapestry, with, soon, a luxury collection conversion brand.

我們有新的轉換品牌正在與 Curio、Tapestry 合作，很快就會有一個奢侈品系列轉換品牌。

So I'm pretty confident, based on our track record, based on the sort of weapons in our arsenal, we'll be able to get the conversions that we need.

因此，我非常有信心，根據我們的追蹤記錄，根據我們武庫中的武器類型，我們將能夠獲得所需的轉換。

So I think, looking at '18, '19, I think looking, as we said at our Analyst Day this time last year, I think we had pretty good sightlines.

所以我認為，看看 18 年和 19 年，正如我們去年這個時候在分析師日所說，我認為我們的視野非常好。

I think being in that 6% to 7% zone for the next few years, I think is readily achievable.

我認為未來幾年處於 6% 到 7% 的區域是很容易實現的。

The next question will come from Patrick Scholes of SunTrust.

下一個問題將由 SunTrust 的 Patrick Scholes 提出。

Almost all my questions have been answered.

我的問題幾乎都得到了解答。

But I do have one for you.

但我確實有一份給你。

On the Waldorf Astoria at New York City, I'm wondering if you have any idea when that might be reopening.

關於紐約市的華爾道夫酒店，我想知道您是否知道該酒店何時重新開業。

I walk by it every day and I don't see a lot of activity going on.

我每天都會經過它，但沒有看到太多活動。

Any rough idea?

有什麼粗略的想法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, a lot of work is going on, not in the hotel, but behind the scenes on all of the planning.

我的意思是，很多工作正在進行，不是在飯店裡，而是在所有規劃的幕後。

And I'd love -- a bunch of us have been deeply involved with Anbang and figuring out the programming, and I think we're sort of at the very final stages of that.

我很樂意——我們中的許多人都深入參與了安邦並製定了規劃，我認為我們已經處於最後階段了。

They've done a bit of demolition, sort of what I'd say is a demolition to figure out what's behind all those walls in a building that's, whatever, 100 years old, that gets tricky.

他們已經進行了一些拆除工作，我想說的是，拆除工作是為了弄清楚一棟 100 年歷史的建築物的所有牆壁後面是什麼，這很棘手。

And what they have said to us is their expectation is and open it in the very late part of this year, very early part of next year, that they're going to be prepared to start the heavy demolition elements, which obviously are the beginning of real construction.

他們對我們說的是，他們的期望是在今年年底、明年年初開放，他們將準備好開始大規模拆除工作，這顯然是開始的真實建築。

So I'm hopeful that in the next 3 to 6 months, that we're starting to get underway.

因此，我希望在接下來的 3 到 6 個月內，我們能夠開始行動。

The program that we've worked on with them after is, I think, spectacular.

我認為我們之後與他們合作的項目非常精彩。

I mean, I've personally spent a bunch of time on it, as tons of people on our team.

我的意思是，作為我們團隊中的大量人員，我個人在這方面花了很多時間。

And I think the direction it's going will make us proud to have the Waldorf Astoria in New York back to its former glory.

我認為它的發展方向將使我們感到自豪，讓紐約華爾道夫酒店恢復昔日的輝煌。

And, ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude our question-and-answer session.

女士們先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to hand the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for his closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）作閉幕詞。

Thanks, everybody, for the time today.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。

Obviously pleased with our third quarter.

顯然對我們的第三季感到滿意。

I think the rest of the year, I think, we're in really good shape and going into next as we talked about.

我認為今年剩下的時間裡，我們的狀態非常好，正如我們所討論的那樣進入了下一個階段。

Steady as she goes.

她走的如此堅定。

We'll keep churning the numbers out and appreciate everybody spending their time with us and look forward to talking with you after our next quarter.

我們將繼續生產這些數字，並感謝每個人花時間與我們在一起，並期待在下個季度後與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has concluded.

女士們、先生們，會議結束了。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

At this time, you may disconnect your lines.

此時，您可以斷開線路。