希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Hilton fourth quarter and full year 2016 results conference call.

大家早安，歡迎參加希爾頓 2016 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Ms. Jill Slattery, Director of Investor Relations.

現在，我想將電話會議轉給投資者關係總監 Jill Slattery 女士。

Ma'am, please go ahead.

女士，請繼續。

Thank you, Jamie.

謝謝你，傑米。

Welcome to the Hilton Worldwide Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2016 Earnings Call.

歡迎參加希爾頓全球 2016 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the risk factors section of our most recently filed form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表

This morning Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the Company's outlook.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our fourth-quarter and full-year results and provide details on our expectations for the year ahead.

我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將回顧我們第四季度和全年的業績，並提供我們對未來一年的預期的詳細資訊。

Following their remarks, we will be available to respond to your questions.

在他們發表講話後，我們將回答您的問題。

And with that, I am pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and good morning everyone and thanks for joining us this morning for the call.

謝謝吉爾，大家早安，謝謝您今天早上加入我們的電話。

We're pleased to report our fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 results with RevPAR growth, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS all in line with our expectations.

我們很高興地報告 2016 年第四季和全年業績，其中 RevPAR 成長、調整後 EBITDA 和調整後每股盈餘均符合我們的預期。

We're also very happy with our continued momentum in the development side of the business.

我們也對業務發展的持續動能感到非常高興。

With the spins of Park and HGV successfully completed last month, this will be the last quarter we report as Legacy Hilton HoldCo as each company will be hosting separate calls to discuss their results and outlook.

隨著 Park 和 HGV 的分拆上個月成功完成，這將是我們作為傳統希爾頓控股公司報告的最後一個季度，因為每家公司將分別召開電話會議，討論其業績和前景。

As we talked about during our investor day in December, the new Hilton is a resilient, fee-driven business.

正如我們在 12 月的投資者日所討論的那樣，新的希爾頓是一家富有彈性、收費驅動的企業。

Our two primary drivers are same-store growth and net unit growth, and we are far less sensitive to changes in RevPAR given the lower operating leverage of a more simplified model and the resiliency of our unit growth.

我們的兩個主要驅動力是同店成長和淨單位成長，考慮到更簡化的模型帶來的較低營運槓桿以及單位成長的彈性，我們對每間可用收入的變化不太敏感。

Focusing on results, same-store trends remained largely consistent throughout 2016.

就結果而言，2016 年同店趨勢大致保持一致。

When adjusting for calendar shifts and other one-time items, system-wide RevPAR growth was essentially 1.5% to 2% throughout the year, led by group and leisure in the 2% to 3% range and business transient at around 1%.

當根據日曆輪班和其他一次性項目進行調整時，全年全系統的RevPAR 增長基本上為1.5% 至2%，其中團體和休閒的增長為2% 至3%，商務瞬態增長為1% 左右。

In the fourth quarter, when you adjust for the impact of calendar shifts, Hurricane Matthew, and the US election, performance improved versus the third quarter which was driven primarily by an uptick in corporate business.

在第四季度，當你根據日曆變化、颶風馬修和美國大選的影響進行調整時，業績較第三季度有所改善，這主要是由企業業務的成長所推動的。

January performance also came in slightly above our expectations.

一月份的表現也略高於我們的預期。

The bulk of our room night demand has short leave times and tends to follow macro economic indicators on a lag.

我們的大部分客房住宿需求的休假時間很短，並且往往落後於宏觀經濟指標。

Forecasts for these indicators, particularly US GDP and nonresidential fixed investment growth show modest year-over-year acceleration into 2017.

這些指標（尤其是美國 GDP 和非住宅固定投資成長）的預測顯示，2017 年將比去年小幅加速。

Actually, the fourth quarter nonresidential fixed investment posted it's first quarter of positive year-over-year growth since 2015 and is forecasted to strengthened further into 2017, which should lead to growth in demand for room nights.

事實上，第四季非住宅固定投資錄得自 2015 年以來首季同比正成長，預計 2017 年將進一步加強，這將導致間夜需求的成長。

Where we have more visibility, notably in group and corporate negotiated business, we see continued demand growth.

在我們擁有更多知名度的領域，特別是在集團和企業談判業務中，我們看到需求持續成長。

Group position for the full year is up slightly versus 2016 with approximately 75% of the business on the books.

集團全年的業務量較 2016 年略有上升，帳面業務佔比約 75%。

While January is a relatively light booking month, we did see positive momentum indicating a stronger pace for the year.

雖然一月份的預訂量相對較少，但我們確實看到了積極的勢頭，表明今年的步伐更加強勁。

Additionally both group ADR and corporate negotiated rates are up 2% to 3% versus 2016.

此外，與 2016 年相比，集團 ADR 和企業協商利率均上漲 2% 至 3%。

Turning to unit growth where we have good sight lines, we continue to take market share.

談到單位成長，我們擁有良好的視野，我們將繼續佔據市場份額。

With construction financing slightly more expensive and marginally harder to get in 2016, only top projects with strong brands got done, keeping industry supply growth below the 30-year average at just shy of 1.6%.

由於 2016 年建築融資成本略高且獲得難度稍大，因此只有擁有強大品牌的頂級項目才能竣工，導致行業供應增長低於 30 年平均水平（僅略低於 1.6%）。

It remains to be seen whether the lending environment gets better, but one thing is certain, our industry-leading brands continue to take a disproportionate share of development activity globally, with little use of our capital.

貸款環境是否會變得更好還有待觀察，但有一點是肯定的，我們的行業領先品牌繼續在全球開發活動中佔據不成比例的份額，而我們的資本卻很少使用。

For Hilton, 2016 was another record year for signings, for openings, and construction starts.

對希爾頓來說，2016 年是簽約數量、開業數量和開工數量創下新紀錄的一年。

We maintained our position as the fastest growing global hospitality company on an organic basis, increasing our system size by 6.6%, with 52,000 gross rooms open.

我們有機地保持了全球成長最快的飯店公司的地位，系統規模增加了 6.6%，開放客房總數達到 52,000 間。

We opened roughly one property per day in 2016 and started construction on nearly 77,000 rooms.

2016 年，我們每天大約開設一處房產，並開始建造近 77,000 間客房。

We signed a record 106,000 rooms, bringing our pipeline to 310,000 rooms, with over half of that pipeline under construction.

我們簽署了創紀錄的 106,000 間客房，使我們的待建客房達到 310,000 間，其中一半以上正在建設中。

Globally, more than one in five hotel rooms under construction are being developed as a Hilton brand, which is 4.5 times our existing share of global rooms.

在全球範圍內，超過五分之一的在建飯店客房正在開發為希爾頓品牌，這是我們現有全球客房份額的 4.5 倍。

Additionally, four of Hilton's brands are in the top five brands in the industry under construction globally.

此外，希爾頓旗下四個品牌躋身全球在建產業品牌前五名。

Our five new brands continue to contribute meaningfully to both our supply and pipeline growth.

我們的五個新品牌繼續為我們的供應和管道成長做出有意義的貢獻。

New brands now represent nearly 800 hotels and 90,000 rooms that are either open or in our pipeline.

目前，新品牌代表著近 800 家已開業或正在籌備中的酒店和 90,000 間客房。

Home2 recently opened its 135th property with another 350 in the pipeline and is now the second largest brand under development in the United States according to STAR.

Home2 最近開設了第 135 家飯店，另有 350 家飯店正在籌備中，根據 STAR 的數據，Home2 目前是美國正在開發的第二大品牌。

Tru by Hilton just celebrated its first birthday with nearly 400 hotels representing 37,000 rooms in various stages of development.

Tru by Hilton 剛剛慶祝了其一歲生日，近 400 家酒店擁有 37,000 間處於不同開發階段的客房。

According to STAR, Tru represents over a quarter of the US industry's mid-scale pipeline and accounted for 65% of the total growth in the US mid-scale pipeline in 2016.

據 STAR 稱，Tru 占美國工業中型管道的四分之一以上，佔 2016 年美國中型管道總成長的 65%。

We're on track to open our first Tru hotel in the second quarter and expect to have nearly 1,000 rooms open by the end of the year.

我們預計在第二季開設第一家 Tru 飯店，預計到年底將開放近 1,000 間客房。

Last month, we launched our newest brand, The Tapestry Collection by Hilton.

上個月，我們推出了最新品牌 The Tapestry Collection by Hilton。

This conversion-oriented brand positioned in the three to four star space, just below Curio, is off to a strong start with over 40 deals in progress.

這個以轉化為導向的品牌定位於三到四星級，僅低於 Curio，目前已完成 40 多項交易，開局強勁。

We expect the first Tapestry to open later this year and believe this brand has significant growth opportunities with an addressable market of over 15,000 existing hotels globally.

我們預計第一家 Tapestry 將於今年稍後開業，並相信該品牌擁有巨大的成長機會，其潛在市場由全球 15,000 多家現有酒店組成。

We also had great success in deploying our existing brands into new markets.

我們在將現有品牌部署到新市場方面也取得了巨大成功。

In 2016, we expanded our system footprint across five new countries for a total of 104 countries and territories.

2016 年，我們將系統覆蓋範圍擴展到了 5 個新國家，總數達到 104 個國家和地區。

Last week, for example, we signed our 100th Hampton in China with our partner, Plateno.

例如，上週我們與合作夥伴鉑濤在中國簽署了第 100 家歡朋酒店。

For the full year 2017, we expect net unit growth of 50,000 to 55,000 rooms, or approximately 6.5% system growth supported almost entirely by third-party capital.

2017 年全年，我們預計客房數量淨增長為 50,000 至 55,000 間，即係統增長約 6.5%，幾乎完全由第三方資本支持。

We also forecast another year of robust signings totaling over 100,000 rooms.

我們也預計，新一年的簽約客房總數將超過 10 萬間。

While our scale, size, and industry-leading brands and commercial platform continue to drive strong unit growth, similar attributes are also driving tremendous growth in our loyalty program.

雖然我們的規模、領先業界的品牌和商業平台繼續推動強勁的單位成長，但類似的屬性也推動了我們的忠誠度計劃的巨大增長。

Hilton Honors added nine million members last year, bringing total membership to over 60 million members.

希爾頓榮譽客會去年新增 900 萬名會員，使會員總數超過 6,000 萬名。

For the full year, Honors members drove 56% of system occupancy, representing a year-over-year increase of nearly 400 basis points.

全年，榮譽會員的系統佔用率達到 56%，年增近 400 個基點。

By ensuring that all of our good customers get the best value and the best experience through Hilton Honors, they are much more likely to have a direct relationship with us.

透過確保我們所有的優質客戶透過希爾頓榮譽客會獲得最佳價值和最佳體驗，他們更有可能與我們建立直接關係。

Our digital channels, including website and mobile bookings, continue to outpace other channels in share growth, up more than 200 basis points year-over-year.

我們的數位管道（包括網站和行動預訂）的份額成長持續超過其他管道，較去年同期成長超過 200 個基點。

In the quarter, web direct as a share of all bookings was nearly 30%.

本季度，網路直接預訂佔所有預訂的比例接近 30%。

We also launched a number of enhancements to our loyalty program just last month that we believe will make the value proposition even greater for our members.

就在上個月，我們也為我們的忠誠度計畫推出了多項增強功能，我們相信這將為我們的會員帶來更大的價值主張。

Hilton Honors is the first loyalty program that will allow members to choose exactly how many points to combine with cash for a hotel stay through a points and money slider.

希爾頓榮譽客會是第一個忠誠度計劃，允許會員透過積分和金錢滑桿準確選擇在酒店住宿時將多少積分與現金結合。

Members will also be able to use their points for purchases on Amazon.com and to allow family and friends to pool their points for free.

會員還可以使用積分在 Amazon.com 上購物，並允許家人和朋友免費共享積分。

We believe these enhancements will continue to make Honors the most customer-centric loyalty program driving incremental value for guests in the overall system.

我們相信，這些增強功能將繼續使榮譽客會成為最以客戶為中心的忠誠度計劃，為整個系統中的賓客帶來增量價值。

Lastly turning to capital return, our new, simplified business model with growth almost entirely financed with third-party capital should continue to generate meaningful free cash flow.

最後轉向資本回報，我們新的、簡化的業務模式的成長幾乎完全由第三方資本資助，應該會繼續產生有意義的自由現金流。

We intend to be very disciplined in returning capital to shareholders over time largely through share repurchases.

我們打算在一段時間內嚴格透過股票回購向股東返還資本。

We're meeting with our Board of Directors next week to finalize our plans and expect to provide further details shortly thereafter.

我們將於下週與董事會舉行會議，以敲定我們的計劃，並預計不久後提供進一步的細節。

In closing, I'd like to extend a really heartfelt thank you to the Hilton team as well as to the teams at Park and HGV for the successful completion of the spins.

最後，我要向希爾頓團隊以及 Park 和 HGV 團隊表示衷心的感謝，感謝他們成功完成了旋轉。

As you might guess, breaking up a 100-year-old company is a massive undertaking.

正如您可能猜到的那樣，拆分一家擁有 100 年歷史的公司是一項艱鉅的任務。

We owe the success of the spins to the hard work and dedication of team members across all three companies, and we remain very excited for the prospects of all three companies going forward.

我們將旋轉的成功歸功於所有三個公司團隊成員的辛勤工作和奉獻精神，我們對所有三家公司的未來前景仍然感到非常興奮。

With that, I'm now going to turn the call over to Kevin to give you a little bit more detail on the quarter and the full-year results.

現在，我將把電話轉給凱文，向您提供有關本季和全年業績的更多詳細資訊。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

For the full year, system-wide RevPAR grew 1.8%, near the high-end of our expectations with rate gains driving performance.

全年，全系統 RevPAR 成長了 1.8%，接近我們預期的上限，利率上漲推動了業績。

Adjusted EBITDA of $2.975 billion was in line with the midpoint of our guidance range, supported by roughly 100 basis points of margin expansion.

調整後 EBITDA 為 29.75 億美元，與我們指導範圍的中點一致，並得到大約 100 個基點的利潤率擴張的支持。

Diluted EPS adjusted for special items was $2.68.

特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 2.68 美元。

Before adjusting for the reverse stock split, diluted EPS was $0.89.

在進行反向股票分割調整之前，稀釋後每股收益為 0.89 美元。

In the fourth quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 0.9% versus prior year which was at the high-end of our guidance due to better than expected transient demand in November and December.

第四季度，由於 11 月和 12 月的瞬態需求優於預期，整個系統的 RevPAR 與去年同期相比成長了 0.9%，處於我們指引的高端。

Good cost control at the corporate level somewhat tempered by softer than expected ownership margins drove adjusted EBITDA of $751 million achieving the midpoint of guidance.

公司層級良好的成本控制在一定程度上受到所有權利潤率低於預期的影響，推動調整後 EBITDA 達到 7.51 億美元，達到指導中點。

In the quarter, we took a $513 million non-cash tax charge related to a corporate restructuring that was executed before the spinoff.

本季度，我們因分拆前執行的公司重組而收取了 5.13 億美元的非現金稅費。

The charge primarily relates to the transfer of certain intellectual property to a foreign subsidiary.

該費用主要涉及將某些智慧財產權轉讓給外國子公司。

For book purposes, the expected taxes on the future earnings of the IP are recognized in the quarter.

出於帳面目的，智慧財產權未來收益的預期稅費在本季確認。

Diluted EPS adjusted for special items was $0.70 in the fourth quarter or $0.23 excluding the impact of the reverse split.

第四季經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.70 美元，不包括反向分割的影響則為 0.23 美元。

Transient business grew modestly in the quarter partially driven by better corporate performance.

本季臨時業務小幅成長，部分原因是公司業績改善。

Additionally, increased demand from Hilton Honors members supported year-over-year growth.

此外，希爾頓榮譽客會會員需求的增加也支持了同比增長。

System-wide group RevPAR was roughly flat in the quarter as declines in convention business offset modest upticks in smaller, leisure-oriented group demand.

本季全系統集團的 RevPAR 大致持平，因為會議業務的下降抵消了規模較小、以休閒為導向的集團需求的小幅增長。

Calendar shifts, challenging year-over-year comparisons, and softer city-wides in key markets weighed on demand while rates increased in the low single-digit range.

日曆變化、具有挑戰性的同比比較以及主要市場的全市經濟疲軟都對需求造成壓力，而利率則在較低的個位數範圍內增長。

In the quarter, management franchise fees grew 2% percent year-over-year to $436 million.

本季度，管理特許經營費年增 2%，達到 4.36 億美元。

Excluding unfavorable FX and other significant one-time items, fee growth in the quarter would've been approximately 360 basis points higher.

排除不利的外匯和其他重要的一次性項目，本季的費用成長將高出約 360 個基點。

For the full year, management and franchise fees increased nearly 6%.

全年管理費和特許經營費增加了近 6%。

Turning to our regional performance and outlook, in the US, comparable RevPAR increased 80 basis points in the quarter.

談到我們的區域業績和前景，在美國，本季可比 RevPAR 成長了 80 個基點。

Underlying corporate transient trends showed more positive performance sequentially.

基本的企業瞬態趨勢連續顯示出更積極的表現。

However, results were masked by unfavorable calendar shifts, Hurricane Matthew, and continued weakness in oil and gas markets.

然而，不利的日曆變化、颶風馬修以及石油和天然氣市場的持續疲軟掩蓋了績效。

Excluding the drag from oil and gas markets, we estimate US RevPAR would've increased an incremental 60 basis points.

排除石油和天然氣市場的拖累，我們估計美國 RevPAR 將增加 60 個基點。

Performance in the quarter was supported by an uptick in Hilton Honors driven volume and the post-election boost in corporate transients.

本季的業績得益於希爾頓榮譽客會推動的銷售上升和選舉後企業瞬態的成長。

For the full year, RevPAR increased 1.8% largely driven by good group and leisure-transient business.

全年可出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長了 1.8%，這主要得益於良好的團體和休閒臨時業務。

For full year 2017, we forecast US RevPAR growth towards the midpoint of our 1% to 3% system-wide range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預測美國 RevPAR 成長將接近 1% 至 3% 系統範圍的中點。

In the Americas outside the US, fourth quarter RevPAR grew 2.5% versus the prior year due to strength in Canada where RevPAR increased more than 5% driven by solid group performance.

在美國以外的美洲地區，第四季的 RevPAR 較上年同期成長了 2.5%，這得益於加拿大的強勁表現，在穩健的集團業績推動下，加拿大的 RevPAR 增長了 5% 以上。

Zika concerns continue to hinder growth in the Caribbean, while economic contraction continued to drive declines in Brazil.

對寨卡病毒的擔憂繼續阻礙加勒比地區的成長，而經濟收縮繼續推動巴西的經濟下滑。

For the full year, RevPAR increased 4.2%.

全年每間可出租客房收入 (RevPAR) 成長 4.2%。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region to be at the higher end of our guidance range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將處於我們指導範圍的高端。

RevPAR in Europe grew 2.2% in the quarter, surpassing expectations due to solid leisure-transient performance across the UK and Ireland during the holiday period.

由於英國和愛爾蘭假期期間休閒短暫表現強勁，歐洲本季每間可用客房營收成長 2.2%，超出預期。

Additionally, results in Continental Europe were aided by increased demand from the Middle East and easier year-over-year comps as we lap terror attacks in Israel.

此外，歐洲大陸的表現得益於中東需求的增加以及以色列恐怖攻擊期間較去年同期更容易的比較。

Unfortunately, terror attacks in geopolitical instability continue to plague Turkey where performance declined 16% versus the prior year.

不幸的是，地緣政治不穩定造成的恐怖攻擊持續困擾著土耳其，其表現較上年下降了 16%。

For full year 2016, RevPAR for the European region increased 1.1%.

2016 年全年，歐洲地區的 RevPAR 成長了 1.1%。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth to be at the mid to high end of our range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長將處於我們範圍的中高端。

RevPAR in the Middle East and Africa declined 5.7% in the quarter driven by new supply in the UAE coupled with lower demand levels.

由於阿聯酋新增供應以及需求水準下降，中東和非洲的每間可用客房收入本季下降了 5.7%。

Continued political unrest in certain African markets further weighed on results.

某些非洲市場持續的政治動盪進一步影響了業績。

In 2016, RevPAR in the region decreased 1.5%.

2016年，該地區的RevPAR下降了1.5%。

For full year 2017, our RevPAR growth forecast is flat to slightly positive.

對於 2017 年全年，我們的 RevPAR 成長預測持平或略有成長。

In the Asia-Pacific region, RevPAR increased 1.5% in the quarter, largely due to strength in China mitigating softer group performance in Japan and demand declines in Thailand following the death of the king.

在亞太地區，本季每間可用客房收入成長了 1.5%，這主要是由於中國的強勢緩解了日本集團業績疲軟的影響，以及泰國國王去世後需求下降。

RevPAR growth in China increased approximately 5% during the quarter, driven by the China National Holiday Campaign and the China Winter Campaign, which helps compensate for shortfalls from the recent implementation of nationwide service charges.

在中國國慶假期活動和中國冬季活動的推動下，本季中國的每間可用客房收入增長約 5%，這有助於彌補近期實施的全國服務費帶來的缺口。

For the full year, RevPAR growth in the Asia-Pacific region increased 3.5%.

全年，亞太地區的 RevPAR 成長了 3.5%。

For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the mid single digits with RevPAR in China up in the 3% to 4% range.

對於 2017 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將實現中等個位數成長，其中中國的 RevPAR 將成長 3% 至 4%。

During the quarter, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share before adjusting for the reverse stock split bringing our full-year cash dividends to $277 million.

本季度，我們支付了每股 0.07 美元的季度現金股息，然後根據反向股票分割進行調整，使我們的全年現金股息達到 2.77 億美元。

As Chris mentioned, we are meeting with our Board next week to discuss our capital return strategy including returning dividends in the initiation of programmatic share repurchases.

正如克里斯所提到的，我們將於下週與董事會會面，討論我們的資本回報策略，包括在啟動計劃性股票回購時返還股息。

For the first quarter of 2017, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be 1% to 3%.

2017 年第一季度，我們預期全系統 RevPAR 成長率為 1% 至 3%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA of $380 million to $400 million and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.24 to $0.29.

我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 3.8 億至 4 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.24 至 0.29 美元。

We are maintaining our full-year 2017 RevPAR growth guidance of 1% to 3% and expect adjusted EBITDA of $1.835 billion to 1.885 billion including an FX headwind of approximately $30 million.

我們維持 2017 年全年 RevPAR 成長指引 1% 至 3%，預計調整後 EBITDA 為 18.35 億美元至 18.85 億美元，其中包括約 3,000 萬美元的外匯阻力。

Taking into account cash on hand and anticipated working capital needs, we expect to have between $900 million and $1 billion in cash available for capital return this year through dividends, share buybacks, and potential debt repayments.

考慮到手頭現金和預期營運資金需求，我們預計今年將有 9 億至 10 億美元現金可用於透過股利、股票回購和潛在債務償還等方式進行資本回報。

We expect diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $1.65 to $1.75.

我們預計特殊項目調整後的攤薄每股收益為 1.65 美元至 1.75 美元。

Please note that our full-year EPS range does not incorporate any assumptions on share repurchases.

請注意，我們的全年每股盈餘範圍不包含任何關於股票回購的假設。

Further details on our fourth-quarter and full-year results as well as our latest guidance ranges can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第四季度和全年業績以及最新指導範圍的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks, and we'd now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們準備好的演講到此結束，現在我們願意解答您可能提出的任何問題。

Please note that we will be focusing our comments on the pro forma Hilton business, leaving commentary on the Park and HGV businesses to their management teams.

請注意，我們將集中評論希爾頓預計業務，而將公園和 HGV 業務的評論留給他們的管理團隊。

In order to speak to as many of you as possible, we ask that you limit yourself to one question.

為了與盡可能多的人交談，我們要求您只回答一個問題。

Jamie, can we have our first question, please?

傑米，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America.

肖恩凱利，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning, and congratulations on completing the spinoffs.

你好，早安，恭喜你完成了衍生劇。

So maybe just wanted to talk a little bit more about the outlook.

所以也許只是想多談談前景。

Chris, last quarter it seemed like the outlook was fairly dependent on some pretty big macro assumptions, and so I guess the question for you is, number one, do you feel a little bit more secure in that outlook today than you did when we were sitting a quarter ago?

克里斯，上個季度的前景似乎相當依賴一些相當大的宏觀假設，所以我想你的問題是，第一，你覺得今天的前景比我們當時更安全嗎？ ？

And number two, any green shoots you can mention that you're seeing specifically to the hotel business, and what you're seeing on the transient side specifically since that's where we saw a lot of the softness last year?

第二，您可以提到您在酒店業務方面看到的任何新芽，以及您在短暫方面看到的具體情況，因為去年我們在酒店業務上看到了很多疲軟的地方？

Yes, great question.

是的，很好的問題。

I assumed one way or another we were going to talk about that probably on multiple questions.

我以為我們可能會以某種方式在多個問題上討論這個問題。

It would be hard to say I don't feel a bit better than I felt when we originally gave our 1% to 3% guidance.

很難說我的感覺沒有比我們最初給出 1% 到 3% 指導時的感覺好一點。

And that would be because that did have an expectation that we would see a pickup in key macro indicators, including GDP growth and nonresidential fixed investment.

這是因為確實預期我們會看到主要宏觀指標的回升，包括 GDP 成長和非住宅固定投資。

I think we have started to see that, and I noted it in my prepared comments that nonresidential fixed investment turned positive in the fourth quarter for the first time in a while.

我認為我們已經開始看到這一點，我在準備好的評論中指出，非住宅固定投資在第四季度首次出現正值。

That is the highest correlation that we can find to growth in demand for hotel rooms.

這是我們發現的與飯店客房需求成長的最高相關性。

I think there is a fairly high level of expectation generally out there that you're going to see positive nonresidential fixed investment this year and that GDP growth is not picking up in a significant way but picking up at least modestly.

我認為，人們普遍預期今年非住宅固定投資將出現積極成長，GDP 成長不會大幅回升，但至少會小幅回升。

And so I think as when we gave guidance of 1% to 3%, we felt reasonably good about it at the time based on where we were on budgets as we now have a little bit of the year behind us.

因此，我認為，當我們給出 1% 到 3% 的指導時，根據我們的預算情況，我們當時感覺相當不錯，因為我們現在已經過去了一點點。

We have a few green shoots that are essentially the corporate business.

我們有一些新芽，本質​​上是公司業務。

The business-transient business has, as I said, picked up a bit post-election.

正如我所說，商業瞬態業務在選舉後有所回升。

It's continued into the first part of this year.

這種情況一直持續到今年上半年。

We feel like we've got a decent group base on the books.

我們覺得我們在書本上已經有了一個不錯的團隊基礎。

Leisure has maintained its relative strength, so it would be hard to say that I don't feel a bit better about our 1% to 3% than I did when we gave it to you last fall and the opportunity to be at the midpoint or above would be higher today than it was at that time.

休閒一直保持著相對強勢，所以很難說我對我們的 1% 到 3% 的感覺沒有比我們去年秋天給你的時候好一點，並且有機會處於中間位置或今天的上述價格將高於當時的價格。

Having said all that, it's early in the year.

說了這麼多，現在還是年初。

There's a lot going on, if you watch cable news and read the newspapers, and some of the things that have created the positive sentiment I think in the business community relate to the idea of tax reform, regulatory reform, the possibility for infrastructure spend.

如果你看有線電視新聞和報紙，就會發生很多事情，我認為在商界產生積極情緒的一些事情與稅收改革、監管改革、基礎設施支出的可能性有關。

And while I think there is decent momentum on a number of those things, in the end, what will matter is what actually happens.

雖然我認為其中許多事情都有不錯的勢頭，但最終，重要的是實際發生的事情。

So I think the psychology in the business community is more positive than it was certainly than when we talked last time.

所以我認為商界的心理比我們上次談話時更正面。

How positive it gets, how long it stays positive is entirely dependent on what actually happens on some of the things that I just mentioned that are swirling.

它變得有多積極，它保持積極多久完全取決於我剛才提到的一些正在發生的事情實際發生的情況。

But we feel like what we're seeing right now makes us feel like the guidance we've given is darn good guidance, and when we look at what we've delivered so far this year and we've already had opportunity to work with our teams to re-forecast the year based on what they're seeing inactivity, short-term plus the longer-term group business, we feel pretty good about it.

但我們覺得我們現在所看到的讓我們覺得我們給出的指導是非常好的指導，當我們看到今年到目前為止我們已經交付的內容時，我們已經有機會與他們合作我們的團隊根據他們所看到的不活躍情況重新預測這一年，短期和長期集團業務，我們對此感覺非常好。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Yep.

是的。

Stephen Grambling, Goldman Sachs.

史蒂芬‧格蘭布林，高盛。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

It looks like your RevPAR and fee growth guidance in 2017 has a bit of a widening gap between the growth rates.

看起來你們 2017 年的 RevPAR 和費用成長指引之間的成長率差距有點擴大。

Can you just walk us through some of the puts and takes driving that shift, whether it's FX, unit growth, accelerating, mix shift, et cetera?

您能否向我們介紹一些推動這一轉變的看跌期權和看跌期權，無論是外匯、單位增長、加速、混合轉變等等？

I'm not sure I understand the question exactly, Stephen.

我不確定我是否完全理解這個問題，史蒂芬。

Can you give me more?

你能給我更多嗎？

I guess if we look at the RevPAR guidance, it's pretty consistent throughout the year, but yet you have fee growth accelerating --

我想如果我們看一下 RevPAR 指導，全年都相當一致，但費用成長卻在加速——

Oh, got you.

哦，明白了。

On a quarter-to-quarter basis -- maybe Kevin will jump in with a little bit more detail.

按季度計算——也許凱文會提供更多細節。

I think the way to think about that is, two things that are going on that sort of create the anomalies on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

我認為思考這個問題的方法是，正在發生的兩件事會造成每季的異常情況。

Some of it's FX; some of it is one-time items either that are happening this year or happened last year.

其中一些是外匯；其中一些是今年發生或去年發生的一次性事件。

If you cleanse it for those things, it actually is relatively consistent throughout the year.

如果你清理掉這些東西，它實際上全年相對穩定。

Okay.

好的。

And then maybe one other follow-up just on the better corporate transient.

然後也許還有一個關於更好的企業瞬態的後續行動。

Perhaps I missed this, but were there specific industries where you're seeing this recovery, or do you feel like it's more broad-based?

也許我錯過了這一點，但是您是否在某些特定行業中看到了這種復甦，或者您覺得它的基礎更廣泛嗎？

I think we're seeing it very broad-based.

我認為我們看到它的基礎非常廣泛。

In fact, I was talking to our folks that lead our sales efforts about that very question earlier in the week, and I think we're seeing very broad-based -- more positive sentiment across a broad range of industries.

事實上，本週早些時候，我曾與領導我們銷售工作的人員討論過這個問題，我認為我們在各個行業都看到了基礎廣泛的、更加積極的情緒。

Great.

偉大的。

I'll jump back in the queue.

我會跳回到隊列中。

Best of luck.

祝你好運。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Patrick Scholes, SunTrust.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯，SunTrust。

Patrick Scholes, how you doing, Patrick?

派崔克‧斯科爾斯，你好嗎，派崔克？

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Just a couple questions here.

這裡只有幾個問題。

If we can drill down a little bit on your group revenue position as it relates to the first half of this year versus the back half of the year, and how are you trending for 2018?

如果我們可以深入了解貴集團今年上半年與下半年的收入狀況，以及貴公司 2018 年的趨勢如何？

Yes.

是的。

We are sort of in the low to mid-single digits for the full year with the first half of the year up more meaningfully than the second half of the year.

我們全年的業績處於中低個位數，上半年的成長比下半年更有意義。

That is not atypical and most years we come into the year just given the timeline.

這並不罕見，大多數年份我們只是按照時間表進入這一年。

So a lot of the in-the-year, for-the-year business obviously when we get to this point is going to be in the second half of the year.

因此，當我們達到這一點時，許多年內、年內的業務顯然將發生在今年下半年。

So we feel -- again, talking to our sales teams, we feel pretty good about it.

因此，我們再次與我們的銷售團隊交談，對此感覺非常好。

If you look at where we ended up last year in group-consumed revenue, we ended up in the 2%, maybe a little bit better.

如果你看看我們去年的集團消費收入，我們的收入是 2%，也許還好一點。

I think we're on track to do at least that.

我認為我們至少有望做到這一點。

I wouldn't want to get too optimistic and say it's a ton better given we're up 2.5% to 3% in terms of position on the books.

我不想過於樂觀地說，考慮到我們的帳面地位上升了 2.5% 到 3%，情況已經好很多了。

But, you know, we feel pretty good about the first half of the year stronger, but we still have plenty of time for in-fill in the second half of the year for in-the-year, for-the-year.

但是，你知道，我們對今年上半年的表現感覺很好，但我們仍然有足夠的時間在今年下半年填補今年的空白。

And as I said, that would be fairly typically how it would weight out.

正如我所說，這通常是它的權衡方式。

And for next year, where do you stand?

對於明年，你的立場如何？

Next year, obviously a much lower percentage of room nights on the books.

明年，帳面上的間夜比例顯然會低很多。

I want to say if we're at 75% now for this year, we may be at 20%, in the 20%s for next year, but up materially.

我想說，如果今年我們現在達到 75%，那麼明年我們可能會達到 20%，甚至 20%，但會大幅上升。

I'd say as we look at it today -- Kevin, correct me if I'm wrong.

當我們今天看到這個問題時，我會說——凱文，如果我錯了，請糾正我。

We're up in the 5% to 10% range, I think towards the higher end of that range for next year at this point.

我們的漲幅在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內，我認為明年此時已經接近該範圍的高端。

But again, to be balanced about it, there's only 25%-ish of the room nights on the books at this point, which again, would be fairly typical being a year out.

不過，為了平衡一下，目前預訂的間夜數只有 25% 左右，這也是一年後的典型情況。

Okay.

好的。

And just lastly shifting gears a bit, are you or Kevin predisposed to -- when you're thinking about capital returns or debt payments, you're predisposed to any of the various combinations, whether share repurchases, dividends, debt, et cetera?

最後稍微改變一下，你或凱文是否傾向於——當你考慮資本回報或債務支付時，你傾向於任何不同的組合，無論是股票回購、股息、債務等等？

We've been, I think, pretty clear on this in the past, including at our analyst day in December; but maybe to make sure that we have perfect clarity, I'll do it again.

我認為，我們過去對此已經非常清楚了，包括在 12 月的分析師日上；但也許為了確保我們有完美的清晰度，我會再做一次。

I think when we think about -- and first of all, as Kevin and I both said, we're going to meet with our Board next week.

我認為，當我們考慮時，首先，正如凱文和我所說，我們將在下週與董事會會面。

So everything I'm going to say is our philosophical approach subject to our Board agreeing with that philosophical approach.

因此，我要說的一切都是我們的哲學方法，前提是我們的董事會同意該哲學方法。

Obviously, we've had discussions prior to next week about how we might approach it, but next week we're going to consider it.

顯然，我們在下週之前就如何處理它進行了討論，但下週我們將考慮它。

I do expect we will walk out of our meeting next week with an approval for our programmatic approach to how we're going to return capital.

我確實希望我們在下週的會議結束時能夠批准我們關於如何返還資本的綱領性方法。

The way that we've talked about it in the past and the way I'd say it again today is that there is a programmatic and opportunistic component to how we intend to return capital.

我們過去談論這個問題的方式以及我今天再說一遍的方式是，我們打算如何返還資本，其中存在程序化和機會主義的成分。

The programmatic element of it is that we would look at our recurring free cash flow.

其計劃要素是我們將關注我們的經常性自由現金流。

And to use the numbers for this year, it was roughly $800 million-plus, and we would look at taking a large component of that.

以今年的數字來看，大約是 8 億多美元，我們會考慮其中的很大一部分。

Let's use a number, say 75% of that, that would come back in the form of a modest dividend, not unlike what we had been doing pre-spin.

讓我們使用一個數字，例如其中的 75%，它將以適度股息的形式返回，這與我們在預旋轉中所做的沒有什麼不同。

But the bulk of it then would be coming back in the form of share repurchases in a programmatic way.

但其中大部分將以程序化方式回購股票的形式回歸。

Then the remaining amount of that free cash flow and any other opportunities that we would have, including re-levering, as we described it at analyst day, we would view as opportunistic.

然後，剩餘的自由現金流量以及我們將擁有的任何其他機會，包括重新槓桿化，正如我們在分析師日所描述的那樣，我們將視為機會主義。

And so we kind of put it in those two buckets.

所以我們把它放在這兩個桶子裡。

The programmatic you will start to see very, very soon.

您很快就會開始看到程式化。

The opportunistic, I hate to say it this way, but we'll know it when we see it.

機會主義，我不想這樣說，但當我們看到它時我們就會知道。

And we want to make sure we have the capacity when there are opportunities that present themselves to be able to lean in and do something even more significant at those times.

我們希望確保當有機會出現時我們有能力投入並做一些更重要的事情。

Sounds very good, thank you.

聽起來非常好，謝謝。

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

費利西亞·亨德里克斯，巴克萊銀行。

Kevin, while we're talking about capital return, I did have a question on the guidance that you announced today.

凱文，當我們談論資本回報時，我確實對您今天宣布的指導意見有疑問。

It's just a little bit lighter than we had expected given your three-year view.

考慮到您的三年觀點，它只是比我們預期的要輕一點。

So I was just wondering if it's more a function of what you think your free cash flow is this year, or is there anything more mechanical, like from the spin or balance sheet requirements, that might limit you a bit more this year than in the later two years of your three-year plan?

所以我只是想知道這是否更多地取決於您認為今年的自由現金流量，或者是否有任何更機械的因素，例如來自旋轉或資產負債表的要求，這可能會比今年對您的限制更多一些你的三年計劃的後兩年？

No, Felicia, there's nothing mechanical there, and I think we did give you a three-year model that was cumulative.

不，費莉西亞，那裡沒有什麼機械的東西，我想我們確實給了你一個累積的三年模型。

And we understand we didn't break it down at the investor day, but our free cash flow for this year is consistent with what we thought at the time.

我們知道我們沒有在投資者日對其進行細分，但我們今年的自由現金流與我們當時的想法一致。

And the free cash flow per year as the earnings of the Company grow, grows throughout the time period.

隨著公司獲利的成長，每年的自由現金流也在整個時期內不斷成長。

So there's nothing else going on there.

所以那裡沒有其他事情發生。

Okay, that's helpful.

好的，這很有幫助。

And, Chris, can you just comment on the recent news flow about the impact of the administration's travel ban on lodging?

克里斯，您能評論一下最近有關政府旅行禁令對住宿影響的新聞嗎？

I know that only about -- I think it's 5% of your domestic business comes from international demand, but I was just wondering more broadly if you could comment?

我知道，我認為你們國內業務的 5% 來自國際需求，但我只是想知道更廣泛的範圍，你是否可以發表評論？

Yes, that's a good question and obviously one that we've been fielding in lots of different forums.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，顯然我們已經在許多不同的論壇上提出過這個問題。

I'd say, as you pointed out, the international business system-wide in the US is a relatively modest component of our business.

我想說，正如您所指出的，美國的國際業務系統是我們業務中相對較小的組成部分。

If you look at what we saw in the international business last year, it was down a bit in revenue.

如果你看看去年我們在國際業務中看到的情況，你會發現收入略有下降。

I think it was down 2.5% to 3% -- 2.8% I think, but 2.5% to 3%.

我認為下降了 2.5% 至 3%——我認為下降了 2.8%，但下降了 2.5% 至 3%。

That was obviously pre-travel ban.

這顯然是旅行前的禁令。

That had a lot to do with the strengthening of the dollar, in my mind.

在我看來，這與美元走強有很大關係。

You did see some markets continuing to show very good growth, mostly Asia-Pacific to the US.

您確實看到一些市場繼續表現出非常好的成長，其中主要是亞太地區和美國。

But a lot of the other markets including Canada close by we saw a drop off.

但包括加拿大在內的許多其他市場我們都看到了下降。

As we think about this year, my sense is -- and then I'll answer the question specifically, my sense is you're going to continue to see pressure on international business, and I think that pressure is largely going to be driven by even further strengthening of the dollar.

當我們思考今年時，我的感覺是——然後我將具體回答這個問題，我的感覺是國際業務將繼續面臨壓力，我認為這種壓力很大程度上將由美元甚至進一步走強。

If you look at what's happened over the last 90 days, the dollar has strengthened a lot.

如果你看看過去 90 天發生的事情，你會發現美元大幅走強。

That, you know, is not good for international inbound business, so I think you'll see continued impact.

你知道，這對國際入境業務不利，所以我認為你會看到持續的影響。

On the other side, the good news is part of the reason the dollar is strengthening, at least at the moment, is a belief the US economy is going to be stronger.

另一方面，好消息是美元走強的部分原因，至少目前是這樣，因為人們相信美國經濟將會走強。

The US economy being stronger in the US for the US, where we have 95% of our business coming from, that, net-net, is a win for us in the industry.

美國經濟在美國變得更加強勁，我們 95% 的業務都來自美國，這對我們這個行業來說是一個勝利。

As it relates to the travel ban, we've been tracking it as carefully as we can.

由於它與旅行禁令有關，我們一直在盡可能仔細地追蹤它。

We have not seen any material impact as a consequence of what's happened over the last two or three weeks.

我們沒有看到過去兩三週發生的事情造成任何實質影響。

We obviously will keep watching it and keep an eye on it, but nothing in any way material that's come from it at this point.

顯然我們會繼續關注它，但目前還沒有任何材料。

Great, helpful.

太棒了，有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank.

卡洛桑塔雷利，德意志銀行。

Hey, thanks everyone, and good morning.

嘿，謝謝大家，早安。

Just on the RevPAR cadence, Chris, Kevin, you guys guided the first quarter 1% to 3%.

克里斯、凱文，就 RevPAR 節奏而言，你們指導第一季實現了 1% 到 3%。

Clearly a little bit of benefit there, and then a little bit of headwind coming in the 2Q with the calendar shift.

顯然，那裡有一點好處，但隨著日曆的轉變，第二季會出現一些逆風。

Could you guys maybe quantify how you're thinking about that?

你們能量化一下你們的想法嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Kevin may want to jump in.

凱文可能想加入。

The truth is, with the Easter shift, we tried not to get too tricky in the guidance and keep it consistent because it's early in the year.

事實是，隨著復活節的轉變，我們盡量不要在指導中變得過於棘手並保持一致，因為現在是年初。

The truth is, first quarter is likely to be more to the higher end, second quarter probably more to the mid to the lower end just because of the shift in Easter.

事實是，由於復活節的轉變，第一季可能會更加高端，第二季可能會更加中低端。

I guess in the end, we could have tried to be a little more precise, but we think both quarters are within those ranges, and we tried to keep it simple.

我想最後，我們本可以嘗試更精確一點，但我們認為兩個季度都在這些範圍內，我們試圖保持簡單。

But Easter is going to help first quarter.

但復活節將對第一季有所幫助。

It's going to hurt second quarter, moving from April -- moving into April from March.

從四月開始，從三月進入四月，第二季將會受到影響。

Correct, but all should be captured within the range.

正確，但應該在範圍內捕獲所有內容。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just in terms of the FX headwind, Kevin, I think you said $30 million in 2017 was built into the adjusted EBITDA guidance.

然後就外匯逆風而言，Kevin，我想您說過 2017 年 3000 萬美元已納入調整後的 EBITDA 指導中。

That's correct.

這是正確的。

Could you possibly parse that just between the leased assets and the management franchise fees?

您能否僅在租賃資產和管理特許經營費之間進行分析？

Yes.

是的。

It's just because of the breakdown in the earnings of the business.

這只是因為企業獲利的崩潰。

It's more of an impact to the fee business.

這對收費業務的影響更大。

So you have a larger impact in the fee business, smaller in the lease business, and then a bit of a benefit in corporate expense because we have some offset by spend in that part of the world.

因此，您對收費業務的影響較大，對租賃業務的影響較小，然後對公司費用有一點好處，因為我們在世界該地區的支出中有一些抵消。

Is it close to pro rata if you just looked at it on a company-wide basis?

如果你只從全公司的角度來看，它是否接近按比例計算？

No.

不。

I would say it's probably 2/3, 1/3 if I had to approximate it.

如果我必須近似的話，我會說可能是 2/3、1/3。

That's right.

這是正確的。

If the breakdown is 90-10, you'd probably go to 2/3 in the fee segment and 1/3 in the ownership segment.

如果細分為 90-10，您可能會在費用部分中選擇 2/3，在所有權部分中選擇 1/3。

Helpful, thank you.

有幫助，謝謝。

Joseph Greff, JPMorgan.

約瑟夫‧格雷夫，摩根大通。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Chris, you talked about this, I guess, in a couple different ways, but when you think about 2017 across the four quarters, can you talk about what's baked into your assumptions for the pace of business transient growth?

Chris，我想您以幾種不同的方式談到了這個問題，但是當您思考 2017 年的四個季度時，您能談談您對業務短暫增長速度的假設中包含哪些內容嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think what's baked into our assumptions is that we're going to see throughout the year -- we're going to go from last year where it was circa 1% to, if we wanted to get to the mid to the higher end of the range, which we're obviously always trying to do is get the best performance we can, I think it's more 1% to 2% than 1%.

我認為我們的假設是，我們全年都會看到——如果我們想達到 2019 年的中高端，我們將從去年的約 1% 上升到 1%。我們能達到的最佳性能，我認為它比1% 多1% 到2%。

As I said, I think group is going to perform in a consistent way.

正如我所說，我認為團隊將以一致的方式表現。

We don't see any leisure issues at the moment.

目前我們沒有看到任何休閒問題。

Now, there's lots of things that could happen; but at the moment, we think leisure keeps clicking around -- or keeps clicking along.

現在，有很多事情可能發生；但目前，我們認為休閒活動一直在進行，或者說一直在進行。

So I think if you can get business transient up over the 1%, 1.5%, 2%, I think it's what could lead you to being at midpoint or hopefully higher than the midpoint of the range.

因此，我認為，如果您能讓業務瞬態上升超過 1%、1.5%、2%，我認為這可能會導致您達到該範圍的中點，或者預計會高於該範圍的中間點。

And I think that's possible, and that's sort of what we've been seeing.

我認為這是可能的，這就是我們所看到的。

If you cleanse December and January of noise, that's sort of where we've been is 1.5% to 2% on business transient.

如果你清除 12 月和 1 月的噪音，我們的業務瞬態變化率就是 1.5% 到 2%。

The only caution -- and again, that's all great, and I know I'm sort of guiding to the mid or high in those comments.

唯一需要注意的是——再說一次，這一切都很好，我知道我在這些評論中引導到了中或高。

The only caution is it's very early in the year, okay, and January is not the biggest business transient travel month, nor is December.

唯一要注意的是，現在還很早，好吧，一月不是最大的商務短暫旅行月份，十二月也不是。

They are amongst the weakest business transient travel months we have.

這是我們商務短暫旅行最疲軟的月份之一。

So I'm not trying to be negative, just trying to be objective.

所以我並不是想消極，只是想客觀。

We need more time to sort of play out, and we need to be able to -- as we get into February, really March, April, you get into a meatier travel season for business transient.

我們需要更多的時間來發揮作用，而且我們需要能夠——當我們進入二月，實際上是三月、四月時，你會進入一個對於商務旅客來說更加豐富的旅行季節。

We need to sort of track those trends and see if they continue.

我們需要追蹤這些趨勢，看看它們是否會持續下去。

But again, if business psychology is more positive generally, it stands to reason -- and fixed and nonresidential fixed investments going up, it stands to reason it should.

但同樣，如果商業心理總體上更為積極，那就合乎情理——而固定和非住宅固定投資的增長，也理所應當。

Now, I talked about a correlation -- nonresidential fixed investment, it being the highest correlation to growth in demand for hotel rooms.

現在，我談到了一個相關性——非住宅固定投資，它與飯店客房需求成長的相關性最高。

It's generally on a two-quarter lag.

通常有四分之一的滯後。

When you go back and you really look at it over time, the first time it turned positive is fourth quarter.

當你回過頭來真正審視它時，你會發現它第一次變得積極是在第四季度。

If you were going to be really precise, you would say you would start to see some of the benefit of that flow-through in the second quarter of this year.

如果你要非常精確的話，你會說你會在今年第二季開始看到這種流動的一些好處。

So we're going to be watching the second quarter really carefully, like we watch every quarter really carefully, but particularly carefully to see if you're starting to see the flow in the business transient side as a consequence of capital investment going up around the country.

因此，我們將非常仔細地觀察第二季度，就像我們非常仔細地觀察每個季度一樣，但要特別仔細地觀察您是否開始看到由於資本投資增加而導致的業務瞬態流動。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for that, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

And just one question going back to the closed loop on the topic of capital return.

還有一個問題回到資本回報這個主題的閉環。

If we were to assume the Board approved authorization, there's no other issue or impediment for buyback to start, there's no -- essentially no need to further pay down debt or anything else?

如果我們假設董事會批准了授權，那麼回購開始時不存在其他問題或障礙，基本上不需要進一步償還債務或其他任何東西？

No.

不。

No.

不。

Our intention, subject to our Board approval, is that we will start our buyback program in the very, very near future.

我們的目的是，在獲得董事會批准的情況下，我們將在不久的將來啟動我們的回購計畫。

Great.

偉大的。

And then, Kevin, are there any incremental spin-related costs that hit the 1Q that we should be mindful of?

然後，凱文，我們應該注意第一季是否有任何與旋轉相關的增量成本？

For the most part, we've accrued for them.

大多數情況下，我們已經為他們累積了費用。

So I don't know if you're asking from a cash perspective or a GAAP perspective.

所以我不知道你是從現金角度還是從公認會計準則角度問。

From a cash perspective.

從現金角度來看。

From a cash perspective, we still have expenses to pay, yes.

從現金角度來看，我們仍然需要支付費用，是的。

But, Joe, as you'll see, if you look at our year-end balance sheet, we've got a lot of cash.

但是，喬，正如你所看到的，如果你看看我們的年終資產負債表，我們有很多現金。

So we've basically stockpiled all the cash to pay all that.

所以我們基本上已經儲備了所有現金來支付所有費用。

That's right.

這是正確的。

So how would you quantify that incremental cash expenditure related to the spin here in 1Q?

那麼，您如何量化第一季與旋轉相關的增量現金支出？

We said about $250 million total.

我們說總額約為 2.5 億美元。

I don't have the exact number in front of me --

我面前沒有確切的數字——

I think with all the one times -- there's a couple hundred, $200 million, $300 million of all the one-time stuff.

我認為所有一次性的東西——有幾百、2億美元、3億美元的一次性東西。

It's been accrued, and the cash is sitting there ready to pay.

它已經被計入，現金就在那裡準備支付。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Great, thanks.

萬分感謝。

Just looking at where net unit growth came in, in Q4, it was towards the low-end of your guidance.

只要看看第四季的淨單位成長情況，它就接近你的指導的低端。

I'm just wondering if that was openings that sort of slipped into Q1, or were there more removables than you were expecting?

我只是想知道這是否是第一季的空缺，或者是否有比您預期的更多的可移動內容？

And then your 2017, your growth guidance didn't change.

然後你的2017年，你的成長指導沒有改變。

So if it was openings that slipped from Q4 into 2017, did kind of a similar number of 2017 openings slip into 2018 to keep 2017 kind of unchanged?

那麼，如果職缺從第四季滑落到 2017 年，那麼 2017 年的空缺數量是否會類似數量滑落到 2018 年以保持 2017 年不變？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, the answer on the first part is, there were a few openings that just carried over to the first quarter, and there were a few relatively big hotels.

我的意思是，第一部分的答案是，有一些職位空缺延續到了第一季度，並且有一些相對較大的酒店。

We had a large hotel in Cairo, one in New York, and another in Rio that we had expected in the fourth quarter.

我們在開羅有一家大型飯店，在紐約有一家，在裡約也有一家，這是我們預計在第四季實現的。

And just for a whole bunch of different reasons, it'll be the first quarter.

只是由於一大堆不同的原因，這將是第一季。

If you added those in, we'd be above the midpoint or right at the midpoint.

如果您將它們添加進去，我們將位於中點之上或正好位於中點。

So just very modest timing differences.

所以只是非常微小的時間差異。

The reason we didn't make any changes in the guidance to this year is exactly what I think you implied in the question, is we've given a 5,000 room range and just didn't feel like that movement alone suggested we should change our range because you can have, as you pointed out, the same thing happened.

我們沒有對今年的指導做出任何改變的原因正是我認為你在問題中所暗示的，是我們已經給出了5,000 間房間的範圍，只是覺得這一運動並不意味著我們應該改變我們的房間範圍。

It's always touch and go when you're opening a hotel a day.

當你每天開一家旅館時，總是會遇到這樣的情況。

I wish I could say that it actually worked that it was one a day and it was that sort of balanced throughout the year.

我希望我能說，它確實有效，每天一次，而且全年都保持平衡。

It doesn't end up working that way.

它最終不會那樣工作。

We generally, like a lot of folks, a lot of our developers are crushing it to get things done at the year-end.

一般來說，像許多人一樣，我們的許多開發人員都在努力在年底完成工作。

There's a lot of moving parts at the year-end every year.

每年年底都會有很多變動的部分。

So, yes, our expectation is some of that will flow over again, but a 5,000 room range sort of picked up what we thought the expected outcome would be.

所以，是的，我們的期望是其中一些會再次流動，但 5,000 個房間範圍有點達到了我們認為的預期結果。

Okay, great understood.

好的，非常明白。

And then the other question -- and maybe you've kind of answered this, but your fee revenue guidance for the year being up 7% is not as high as your unit growth plus RevPAR growth combined would kind of suggest.

然後是另一個問題——也許您已經回答了這個問題，但您今年的費用收入指導增長了 7%，但並不像您的單位增長加上 RevPAR 增長之和所暗示的那麼高。

Is the difference -- it sounds like FX would be maybe 100 basis points.

有什麼區別嗎——聽起來外匯可能有 100 個基點。

Is there anything else that's making --?

還有其他什麼東西在製造──嗎？

Yes.

是的。

They're two real simple things: FX, which is a little bit more than that I think if you do the math, and then the Waldorf.

它們是兩個非常簡單的東西：FX，如果你算一下的話，我認為它比我想像的要多一點，然後是華爾道夫。

The Waldorf-Astoria, in the end, it's a wonderful story, but we sold it for $2 billion.

華爾道夫酒店，歸根結底，這是一個精彩的故事，但我們以 20 億美元的價格賣掉了它。

Then we're going to have a 100-year management contract, but it's getting ready to close on March 1.

然後我們將簽訂為期 100 年的管理合同，但準備在 3 月 1 日結束。

And as a consequence, until it reopens -- and when it reopens, we'll get great fees.

因此，在它重新開放之前——當它重新開放時，我們將獲得巨額費用。

It'll be better than what we've been receiving; but while it's closed, we will not be receiving fees.

它會比我們收到的更好；但在關閉期間，我們不會收取任何費用。

So it's FX and the Waldorf.

這就是 FX 和華爾道夫酒店。

There are lots of little nuance things.

有很多細微差別的事。

It's a big business; but if you factored for those things, that's really what's driving it.

這是一門大生意；但如果你考慮到這些因素，你會發現這才是真正的推動因素。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thomas Allen, Morgan Stanley.

湯瑪斯艾倫，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Factoring in the fact that about 90% of your EBITDA comes from management franchise fees; and within that, about 90% of that comes from base management fees and franchise fees, so IMFs and own segment are relatively small.

考慮到您約 90% 的 EBITDA 來自管理特許經營費；其中，約90%來自基本管理費和特許經營費，因此國際貨幣基金組織和自己的部門規模相對較小。

But can you just help us think about is there any kind of unique drivers of those two businesses or nuances we should think about for 2017?

但您能否幫助我們思考這兩項業務是否有任何獨特的驅動因素或我們在 2017 年應該考慮的細微差別？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I mean, the drivers are different, Thomas.

我的意思是，司機是不同的，湯瑪斯。

I mean obviously, one thing you don't think about in the ownership segment that's predominantly leased hotels, right?

我的意思顯然是，在主要是租賃酒店的所有權細分市場中，您不會考慮一件事，對吧？

So there's a fair amount of operating leverage there, and so when you get RevPAR at different levels and how it mixes between occupancy and rate can have an effect on profitability.

因此，這裡存在相當大的營運槓桿，因此當您獲得不同級別的 RevPAR 時，以及它在入住率和房價之間的混合方式會對盈利能力產生影響。

And IMF -- most of our IMF, as we've described, is driven by a percentage of GOP.

國際貨幣基金組織—正如我們所描述的，我們大部分的國際貨幣基金組織是由一定比例的共和黨推動的。

So we have less volatility in that segment, in that piece of our fee stream than others might have.

因此，我們在該領域、在我們的費用流中的波動性比其他人可能要小。

It doesn't really go switch on/switch off, but it still has operating leverage baked into it because it's driven on GOP.

它並沒有真正打開/關閉，但它仍然具有營運槓桿，因為它是由共和黨驅動的。

So that's the primary differences, the 90% as we described is 90% top line, 10% bottom line.

這就是主要的區別，我們所描述的 90% 是 90% 的頂線，10% 的底線。

So you have sort of plus or minus 20% of the business that is driven on bottom-line hotel results.

因此，有正負 20% 的業務是由酒店的底線業績驅動的。

If you look at IMF, Thomas, year over year and you cleanse it of FX, it is relatively comparable but, you know, it is in the high single digits.

湯瑪斯，如果你逐年觀察國際貨幣基金組織，並剔除外匯，你會發現它是相對可比的，但你知道，它處於高個位數。

And that's -- as we suggested at our analyst day, that's sort of what we expect generally over at least the three-year analysis period that we gave you.

正如我們在分析師日所建議的那樣，這就是我們在給您的至少三年分析期間內的整體預期。

And again, that's because -- that's pretty good growth rate, but a little bit lower growth rate than you might see with others simply because it's a much lower beta fee stream because it's not sitting behind owner priorities.

再說一遍，這是因為——這是一個相當不錯的成長率，但比你在其他公司看到的成長率要低一些，只是因為它的測試費流要低得多，因為它沒有落後於所有者的優先事項。

So that's where it is.

這就是它所在的地方。

Now, FX I would say -- because most of it, 80% of our IMF -- so 80% of that 10% of fees, if you will, is international.

現在，我想說的是外匯——因為其中大部分，我們國際貨幣基金組織的 80%——所以如果你願意的話，這 10% 的費用中的 80% 是國際費用。

It gets more hit by FX.

它受到外匯的影響更大。

So the high single digits gets whacked more proportionally than the other fee base because it is disproportionately more international where we have the strength of the dollar impacting it.

因此，高個位數的費用比其他費用基數受到的打擊更大，因為它更加國際化，我們受到美元強勢的影響。

Helpful, thanks.

有幫助，謝謝。

And then just a couple questions on China.

然後是關於中國的幾個問題。

What are you seeing in terms of new development and overall trends for the market there?

您對那裡市場的新發展和整體趨勢有何看法？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

The overall trend remains pretty good.

整體趨勢還是不錯的。

We ended up for the year last year in the mid single digits in same-store growth.

去年我們的同店成長達到了中等個位數。

I think we are thinking similar this year, maybe a tick below as they continue to transition their economy, but still feel like we are going to have pretty decent positive same-store growth this year in China.

我認為我們今年也有類似的想法，隨著他們繼續經濟轉型，可能會低一些，但仍然感覺今年我們在中國的同店成長將相當可觀。

On the new unit side we continue to pick up steam.

在新單位方面，我們繼續加快步伐。

We opened 20% more hotels -- hotel rooms in 2016 than we did in 2015.

2016 年我們新開的飯店數量比 2015 年增加了 20%。

We think we'll be another 10% or 20% then again higher in terms of our NUG, net unit growth, on a rooms basis, in 2017 over 2016.

我們認為 2017 年我們的 NUG（以房間為基礎的淨單位增長）將比 2016 年再增長 10% 或 20%。

And so we are making good headway.

因此，我們正在取得良好進展。

I think that the pivot we made a few years ago was a really important pivot.

我認為我們幾年前所做的轉向是一個非常重要的轉向。

We've talked about it for a few years.

我們已經討論這個問題好幾年了。

We anticipated it ahead of I think a lot of others, and that was that, in the end, a lot of the growth like most markets around the world as they start to become a little bit more mature as the hotel market comes in the mid market because that's where you have the middle class population growth that is at a very high rate.

我們比其他許多人提前預見了這一點，最終，隨著酒店市場進入中期，它們開始變得更加成熟，就像世界上大多數市場一樣，出現了很多增長。成長速度非常快。

The mid-market product is what they can afford, and that ultimately ends up driving a lot of the growth.

中端市場產品是他們能負擔的，最終將推動大量成長。

So as has been well chronicled, we pivoted very hard about three years ago to start to build out our infrastructure, retool our products on both Garden Inn and Hampton, including doing the joint venture with Plateno, in anticipation of that.

正如已詳細記載的那樣，大約三年前，我們非常努力地進行轉型，開始建設我們的基礎設施，在花園酒店和漢普頓酒店重新裝備我們的產品，包括與鉑濤建立合資企業，以期實現這一點。

And that's exactly what's happening.

這正是正在發生的事情。

So every year that has gone by over the last bunch of years, we've seen more unit growth for our brands in that market.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們的品牌在該市場的銷售量逐年增長。

The composition of that unit growth has changed dramatically.

該單位成長的組成發生了巨大變化。

We're now -- if you look at next year, meaning this year, you will see the majority or at least probably 50-50 of our openings will be between focus service and full-service and above, where it used to be essentially 100% full service and above.

我們現在——如果你看看明年，也就是說今年，你會發現我們的大部分或至少可能有50-50 個職位空缺將位於專注服務和全方位服務及以上領域，而過去基本上是這樣的100% 全方位服務及以上。

So that pivot's been incredibly important and I think impactful as an enabler to continue to keep our growth moving in a very positive direction there.

因此，這一點非常重要，我認為它作為推動因素具有影響力，可以繼續保持我們的成長朝著非常積極的方向發展。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Wes Golladay, RBC Capital Markets.

Wes Golladay，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Looking at that business transient travel forecast of 1.5% to 2%, can you provide some context of what that level was, call it 2014 in the front half of 2015?

看看 1.5% 到 2% 的商務短暫旅行預測，您能否提供一些有關該水平的背景資訊（將 2015 年上半年稱為 2014 年）？

Much higher.

高得多。

And by the way, I would restate the question if I can.

順便說一句，如果可以的話，我會重申這個問題。

It wasn't really a forecast that I was giving, for the record.

鄭重聲明，這並不是我真正做出的預測。

I was saying, what would we have to see -- what have we seen more recently, and what we have to see for the full year to see that we'd be at the middle or upper end of our ranges.

我是說，我們必須看到什麼——我們最近看到了什麼，以及我們全年必須看到什麼，才能看到我們處於範圍的中端或高端。

We don't know what the forecast -- transient business is so short in nature, and that's what we've seen in a very short, low-volume period of time.

我們不知道預測是什麼——短暫的業務本質上是很短暫的，這就是我們在非常短的、低交易量的時間內看到的情況。

And we hope that continues.

我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

If you go back to 2014 and 2015, those numbers were probably in the 5 to 7 -- if you went to 2014, I would say they were -- and, Kevin, help me.

如果你回到 2014 年和 2015 年，這些數字可能在 5 到 7 之間——如果你回到 2014 年，我會說它們是——凱文，幫幫我。

I think they were like 5 to 7; and I'd say in 2015, they were 4 to 6. They were moving up at a much higher clip, much more positive growth.

我認為他們大概是 5 到 7 個人；我想說的是，2015 年，他們的比例是 4 到 6。 他們的成長速度要快得多，成長要正面得多。

So getting the 1.5% to 2% relative to that is not meteoric growth.

因此，相對於此而言，獲得 1.5% 至 2% 的成長率並不是快速成長。

I think, you know, if business sentiment stays positive, if people think the economy is going to be stronger and they ultimately are hiring more people and investing more in plant and equipment and technology, I think that's very much possible.

我認為，如果商業情緒保持積極，如果人們認為經濟將會更加強勁，並且他們最終會僱用更多的人員並對工廠、設備和技術進行更多投資，我認為這是很有可能的。

I don't think that's a hope certificate.

我不認為那是希望證書。

But those things have to continue and it's early in the year and it's early in the new administration and there are a lot of swirling winds out there.

但這些事情必須繼續下去，現在是今年年初，新政府上任初期，外面有許多旋風。

We need to just see where it goes.

我們只需要看看它去了哪裡。

Hopefully the six-year high and CEO confidence translates into more investment.

希望六年來的高點和執行長的信心能轉化為更多的投資。

Looking at --

看著 -

It certainly should logically.

從邏輯上來說當然應該如此。

And it is.

確實如此。

If you look at what happened in the fourth quarter, it is.

如果你看看第四季發生的事情，確實如此。

And looking at Tapestry, do you have any internal goal that you would like to share with us as far as signings for the year?

看看Tapestry，就今年的簽約而言，您有什麼內部目標想與我們分享嗎？

No.

不。

No.

不。

We have goals that we set out for every brand with our development teams, and we obviously set up our comp systems around those; but for a whole lot of competitive reasons, we're not going to get into disclosing those.

我們與我們的開發團隊為每個品牌設定了目標，我們顯然圍繞著這些目標建立了我們的補償系統；但基於許多競爭原因，我們不會透露這些內容。

Fair enough, and congrats on a good year.

很公平，恭喜你度過了美好的一年。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Hey, thanks.

嘿，謝謝。

We appreciate it.

我們很感激。

Smedes Rose, Citigroup.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗集團。

Hi, thank you.

嗨，謝謝你。

You mentioned in your opening remarks some very strong growth in the Hilton Honors Program; and as I recall, and you might have to remind us some of the context here, but prior to your IPO you were able to monetize the program, I believe, with American Express and at least one other credit card company or bank.

您在開場白中提到了希爾頓榮譽客會計劃的強勁增長；我記得，您可能需要提醒我們一些背景，但在您首次公開募股之前，我相信您能夠透過美國運通和至少一家其他信用卡公司或銀行將該計劃貨幣化。

Isn't there an opportunity coming up now that you would be able to monetize that again, are you eligible to do that, or can you maybe talk about that a little bit?

現在是否有機會再次將其貨幣化，您是否有資格這樣做，或者您可以談談這一點嗎？

Yes, what we did pre-IPO was we did a presale of points.

是的，我們在首次公開發行前所做的是預售積分。

A number of companies do this across the travel industry both in the hotel, airline business, et cetera.

許多公司在整個旅遊業中都這樣做，包括酒店、航空業務等。

That was a three-year forward sale, and that is largely complete at this point.

這是一項為期三年的遠期銷售，目前已基本完成。

So, yes, that is a lever that we always have with -- at this point, we have two co-brand relationships with Citi, Visa, and with AmEx.

所以，是的，這是我們一直擁有的槓桿——目前，我們與花旗、Visa 和美國運通有兩個聯合品牌關係。

And that is something that is available to us.

這是我們可以利用的。

Whether we do that or not, I won't comment on.

無論我們是否這樣做，我都不會發表評論。

Okay.

好的。

And the amount, though, prior was something like $600 million.

不過，之前的金額約為 6 億美元。

Is that about what it was?

事情就是這樣嗎？

Yes, that's about right.

是的，差不多是這樣。

$650 million to be exact.

準確地說，是 6.5 億美元。

Obviously, the system is bigger now, and the size of the system is a direct sort of impact on the size of points because the bigger the system, the more points they need to have to service their customer base with a co-brand card.

顯然，現在的系統更大，系統的規模對積分的大小有直接影響，因為系統越大，他們需要越多的積分來使用聯名卡為客戶群提供服務。

And then just one more extra.

然後還有一個額外的。

You mentioned the $30 million headwind from FX.

您提到了來自外匯的 3000 萬美元的逆風。

Is that assuming -- and I'm sorry if you mentioned this, but is that assuming a constant dollar, or does that assume continued appreciation in the dollar as we move through the year?

這是假設——如果你提到這一點，我很抱歉，但這是假設美元不變，還是假設美元在這一年中持續升值？

It assumes the forecast for the dollar against the basket of currencies, and that does assume further appreciation.

它假設了美元兌一籃子貨幣的預測，並且確實假設進一步升值。

Great, thank you very much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Chad Beynon, Macquarie.

查德貝農，麥格理。

Hi, thanks for taking my question.

您好，感謝您提出我的問題。

In your opening remarks, you mentioned that oil and gas continued to be a headwind.

在您的開場白中，您提到石油和天然氣仍然是一個阻力。

I think you said 80 basis points.

我想你說的是80個基點。

I'm not sure if that was sequentially or year over year.

我不確定這是連續的還是逐年的。

Could you just provide some more color in terms of if you are seeing an improvement sequentially, and then also how you're thinking about this from an impact standpoint in your 2017 guidance?

您能否在 2017 年指南中提供更多關於您是否看到改進的信息，以及您如何從影響的角度考慮這一點？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

Some of those markets are -- it depends on the market, but some of those markets are not yet recovering.

其中一些市場——這取決於市場，但其中一些市場尚未復甦。

And part of that is supply driven where the markets got so strong that it brought on some supply in places like Houston and Austin.

其中一部分是供應驅動的，市場變得如此強勁，以至於休斯頓和奧斯汀等地帶來了一些供應。

So we're not yet seeing that recovery mostly because of supply.

因此，我們還沒有看到復甦主要是由於供應。

We do assume that it does get a little bit better over the course of the year just because it laps comps.

我們確實假設它在這一年中確實會變得更好一些，只是因為它在比賽中表現出色。

And then the other thing that's going on is as oil approaches $60 a barrel, and if it eclipses $60 a barrel, you will start to see more economic activity in that business.

然後發生的另一件事是，當油價接近每桶 60 美元時，如果它超過每桶 60 美元，你將開始看到該行業的更多經濟活動。

But part of that is -- gets caught up in what Chris was talking about before where if activity picks up there, then you will see corporate transient pickup and you might see -- that could be a factor that causes us to get a little bit more positive about corporate transient.

但其中一部分是 - 陷入克里斯之前所說的，如果那裡的活動有所回升，那麼你會看到企業短暫的回升，你可能會看到 - 這可能是導致我們有點緊張的一個因素對企業瞬態更加積極。

But in oil and gas, getting back into heavy production mode, is on a lag.

但在石油和天然氣領域，恢復重生產模式存在滯後性。

Once it gets to -- breaks the $60 barrel, some of it can start pretty quickly, but it takes more investment and there is a log effect.

一旦突破 60 美元一桶，其中一些可以很快啟動，但需要更多投資，並且存在對數效應。

Right.

正確的。

So there wouldn't be a lot of that baked in --

所以不會有太多的東西被烘烤——

But not a lot of that baked into our guidance for this year.

但我們今年的指導中並沒有太多內容。

The benefit of much easier comps is obviously baked in.

更容易比較的好處顯然已經融入其中。

Okay, thanks.

好的謝謝。

And then my follow-up just because we are a couple weeks out from the analyst conference.

然後我的後續行動只是因為距離分析師會議還有幾週時間。

Chris, was there any dramatic, I guess, difference in terms of what you are expecting your partners and REIT owners, in terms of how they were viewing the world after you had conversations with them, and how they view 2017 versus maybe how you and some of the c-corps view it?

克里斯，我想，在您對合作夥伴和房地產投資信託基金所有者的期望方面，在您與他們交談後他們如何看待世界，以及他們如何看待2017 年，以及您和您的看法方面，是否存在任何戲劇性的差異？

No.

不。

I think -- not to be too short on the answer, I didn't see any real difference in our view and their view.

我認為——不要太簡短地回答，我沒有看到我們的觀點和他們的觀點有任何真正的差異。

I think the broader view coming out of ALIS I think was -- I would describe -- probably used too frequently, but cautious optimism.

我認為 ALIS 提出的更廣泛的觀點是——我會描述——可能使用得太頻繁，但謹慎樂觀。

There's still a lot of -- as I said, a lot of things in play.

正如我所說，還有很多事情在發揮作用。

But I think most of the folks I talked to in our ownership community, and I talked to a ton of them there, and I talk to a ton of them on a regular basis are feeling -- I think broadly in the industry, whether owner community and the REIT community are feeling a little bit better about 2017 than they did a few months ago.

但我認為我在我們的所有權社區中與他們交談過的大多數人，我在那裡與他們中的許多人交談過，並且我定期與他們中的很多人交談過，我認為在整個行業中，無論是所有者社群和 REIT 社群對 2017 年的感覺比幾個月前好一些。

And as I said, I think time will tell, but my general sense is a bit more optimism.

正如我所說，我認為時間會證明一切，但我的整體感覺是更樂觀一些。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Harry Curtis, Nomura.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村證券。

Good morning.

早安.

I wanted to focus on the longer-term picture now that you've separated from the two other businesses.

既然您已經與其他兩家公司分離開來，我想把重點放在長期前景上。

Are there any new strategies or enhancements to existing strategies that you're now able to pursue to drive shareholder value over the next 3 to 5 years?

您現在是否可以採取任何新策略或對現有策略的增強，以在未來 3 到 5 年內提高股東價值？

Very broad question, but if you want to take an opportunity to really focus on the primary drivers and then fold into that your thoughts on how the relationship might work with HNA once that closes?

非常廣泛的問題，但如果您想藉此機會真正專注於主要驅動因素，然後融入您對一旦關係結束後與海航的關係如何運作的想法？

Sure.

當然。

The first one -- I don't know with the limits of time.

第一個——時間有限，我不知道。

I should be careful because I am long-winded as everybody knows.

我應該要小心，因為大家都知道我很囉嗦。

But I would say there's no real change in our strategy for the core business.

但我想說的是，我們的核心業務策略沒有真正的改變。

I think having spun the other two businesses, it changes the nature of the business from the standpoint of how the investment community would look at it, and it certainly changes the beta of the business in the sense that now the remaining business is really the fee business.

我認為，從投資界如何看待它的角度來看，剝離其他兩項業務後，它改變了業務的性質，而且它肯定會改變業務的貝塔值，因為現在剩下的業務實際上是費用商業。

That's a much more resilient business with embedded growth as a consequence of the pipeline that we have and that is growing.

這是一項更具彈性的業務，由於我們擁有且正在成長的管道，因此具有嵌入式成長。

So our strategy had been and continues to be to make sure that we have the best brand portfolio in the business, that as we add brands, that we do it in a sensible way to better serve our customers.

因此，我們的策略過去是、現在仍然是確保我們擁有業內最好的品牌組合，當我們增加品牌時，我們會以明智的方式做到這一點，以更好地服務我們的客戶。

That we drive terrific commercial performance across new and existing brands in a way that drives premium market share, and that, that premium market share is ultimately driving a disproportionate share of the investment capital to our brands from the ownership community because they are going to make more money dealing with us.

我們以提高優質市場份額的方式推動新品牌和現有品牌取得出色的商業業績，而優質市場份額最終將為我們的品牌帶來不成比例的投資資本，因為它們將與我們打交道的錢更多。

And that disproportionate investment from the ownership community is ultimately going to drive unit growth and bottom-line growth.

來自所有權界的不成比例的投資最終將推動單位成長和利潤成長。

And we know in the new world order of new Hilton, while obviously the higher same-store growth is the better it is for us, the new unit growth is a much more significant component and contributor to our overall growth.

我們知道，在新希爾頓的新世界秩序中，雖然同店成長顯然對我們來說越高越好，但新單位成長對我們的整體成長來說是更重要的組成部分和貢獻者。

And so we had been focused in that way, and I think trying to do our best to optimize that opportunity, we will continue to focus on that.

因此，我們一直專注於這種方式，我認為盡我們最大的努力來優化這個機會，我們將繼續專注於這一點。

Again, making sure that our existing brands maintain their relevance and gain relevance, gain market share, that new brands that we launch organically are relevant to what customers need, and ultimately all of our brands drive performance for owners.

再次，確保我們現有的品牌保持其相關性並獲得相關性，獲得市場份額，我們有機推出的新品牌與客戶的需求相關，最終我們所有的品牌都會為所有者帶來績效。

And if we do that, I think you are going to see our market share continue to grow, and I think you're going to continue to see us take share globally on the development side.

如果我們這樣做，我認為您將看到我們的市場份額繼續增長，並且我認為您將繼續看到我們在開發方面佔據全球份額。

And that's going to deliver a fabulous result over time when paired with now new part of the strategy, a different return of capital story, which is in a world where we had other businesses that were much more capital intensive and a lot of our capital was going towards that or deleveraging, we did not have the kind of capital available that we do today to return to shareholders.

隨著時間的推移，當與策略的新部分相結合時，這將帶來令人難以置信的結果，即不同的資本回報故事，在這個世界中，我們還有其他資本密集程度更高的業務，而且我們的大量資本都被為了實現這一目標或去槓桿化，我們沒有今天那樣的可用資本來回報股東。

So when you take the fundamental business that's performing I think exceptionally well, and if we do our job it will only get better from a growth point of view, you match it with now very little in capital needs and very significant free cash flow and a very disciplined approach from myself and the rest of our team to returning that capital over time, I think it drives a fabulous result.

因此，當你考慮表現出色的基本業務時，我認為它非常好，如果我們做好我們的工作，從成長的角度來看，它只會變得更好，你可以將它與現在很少的資本需求和非常可觀的自由現金流以及我和我們團隊的其他成員都採取非常嚴格的方法來隨著時間的推移返還資金，我認為這會帶來令人難以置信的結果。

As a result of having spun the companies in addition to having a cleaner, more resilient lower beta model would meet more cash flow, it obviously frees up -- frees management up, not that we weren't focused on this.

由於公司的分拆除了擁有更清潔、更具彈性的較低貝塔模型將滿足更多現金流之外，它顯然也解放了管理人員，並不是說我們不關注這一點。

But it frees us up to double down on everything we're doing with our brands, everything that we are doing with Honors and loyalty, some of the things you saw just recently, allows us to double down on what we're doing with innovation to continue to make sure that everything we do is through the eyes of the customer and making sure that we are ultimately driving more loyalty, more relevance with our customers, and as a consequence, more share and more growth.

但它讓我們能夠更加專注於我們品牌所做的一切，我們以榮譽和忠誠所做的一切，你最近看到的一些事情，讓我們能夠更加專注於創新繼續確保我們所做的一切都是從客戶的角度出發，並確保我們最終提高客戶的忠誠度和相關性，從而獲得更多的份額和更多的成長。

So we've been focused on those things.

所以我們一直專注於這些事情。

That's not different.

那沒什麼不同。

Obviously goes without saying, without having those two businesses, it just gives those of us in senior management even more time to focus on those things and do it even better, and I think propel growth at an even faster rate going forward.

顯然，不言而喻，如果沒有這兩項業務，它只會讓我們這些高階管理層有更多時間專注於這些事情並做得更好，我認為未來會以更快的速度推動成長。

And HNA, which we do expect to close before the quarter is out, we've had discussions with them.

我們預計海航將在本季結束前關閉，我們已經與他們進行了討論。

Nothing is different, really, than the commentary I made on the last call.

事實上，與我上次通話時的評論沒有什麼不同。

The discussions with them really center around how do we connect our respective travel assets.

與他們的討論實際上集中在我們如何連接各自的旅行資產。

So loyalty, they have a very large loyalty program.

所以忠誠度，他們有一個非常大的忠誠度計劃。

We think there are tremendous opportunities to connect their folks with ours and ours with theirs.

我們認為有巨大的機會將他們的人民與我們的人民以及我們的人民與他們的人民聯繫起來。

They are also quite active in the travel agency, both online and traditional through their tour business, in China and with customers leaving China, and getting very connected with them in both those regards.

他們在中國的旅行社中也非常活躍，無論是線上旅行社還是傳統旅行社，以及離開中國的客戶，並在這兩方面與他們建立了密切的聯繫。

So as they close the deal at the end of the quarter and we continue those discussions, I think as the year plays out, we will have some tremendous opportunities to connect those assets in a way that helps us, and frankly, I think, helps them as well, which is obviously in part why they were interested in us.

因此，當他們在本季度末完成交易並且我們繼續進行這些討論時，我認為隨著這一年的結束，我們將有一些巨大的機會以一種對我們有幫助的方式連接這些資產，坦率地說，我認為，有幫助他們也是如此，這顯然是他們對我們感興趣的部分原因。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Bill Crow, Raymond James.

比爾·克勞，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Chris, I think there were two drivers this cycle that kind of set it apart from other cycles from a demand perspective, one is inbound international travel, and I think we've talked about that and FX and whatnot, but the other one is kind of the millennials' proclivity to travel.

克里斯，我認為從需求角度來看，這個週期有兩個驅動因素使其與其他週期區分開來，一個是入境國際旅行，我想我們已經討論過這一點以及外匯等等，但另一個是友善的千禧世代的旅行傾向。

And I guess my question is, is there any sort of fatigue -- travel fatigue you are seeing from the millennials, any change of habits from a travel perspective?

我想我的問題是，千禧世代是否有任何形式的疲勞——旅行疲勞，從旅行的角度來看，習慣有任何改變嗎？

Not really.

並不真地。

Bill, we spend a lot of time thinking about millennials and young people and young customers; and I have to say, there's certainly no trend that I have seen.

比爾，我們花了很多時間思考千禧世代、年輕人和年輕顧客；我不得不說，我確實沒有看到任何趨勢。

If you look at our leisure business overall throughout, even the downturn but coming out of the downturn into this now fairly long up cycle, it's been pretty consistently a leading positive indicator in the sense of, you know, growth has been at a strong clip sort of leading the charge and has stayed that way.

如果你縱觀我們的休閒業務，即使是低迷，但走出低迷進入現在相當長的上升週期，它一直是一個領先的積極指標，從某種意義上說，你知道，增長一直在強勁增長。領先，並且一直保持這種狀態。

And a component of it, and increasing component of it, is the millennial traveler who I think really wants to get out and experience things.

其中一個組成部分，並且越來越多的組成部分，是千禧一代旅行者，我認為他們真正想要出去體驗事物。

Now, I would probably say, when we wake up in a decade, that's going to be over half our traveling population.

現在，我可能會說，當我們十年後醒來時，這將超過我們旅行人口的一半。

If you look at it today, it's probably 20% or 25% of our population of travelers.

如果你今天看看，這可能占我們旅客總數的 20% 或 25%。

That's one of the reasons we've been doing -- in terms of our brand launches, we've been doing some of the things we've been doing.

這就是我們一直在做的原因之一——就我們的品牌發布而言，我們一直在做一些我們一直在做的事情。

If you think about Home2 first, then Tru, now Tapestry, -- a lot of that, not all of it.

如果你先想到 Home2，然後是 Tru，現在是 Tapestry，那麼很多，而不是全部。

We want to obviously appeal to a broad range of customers with all our brands, but those brands, particularly at the price points that they're at, which is at the lower end is going to allow us, we think, to get younger travelers into the system and build loyalty with them so as they grow up and they travel more and in different ways, they stick with us.

顯然，我們希望透過我們所有的品牌來吸引廣泛的客戶，但我們認為，這些品牌，特別是它們所處的低端價格，將使我們能夠吸引年輕的旅行者融入系統並與他們建立忠誠度，這樣當他們長大、旅行更多、不同的方式時，他們就會堅持我們。

Because the fact is, some of our products even at the lower end we're at a price point that was very difficult for certainly the younger end of millennials to stay with us.

因為事實是，我們的一些產品即使是低端產品，我們的價格也很難讓千禧世代的年輕一代留在我們身邊。

So I think the millennial traveler is alive and well.

所以我認為千禧世代的旅行者還活著並且活得很好。

I think that certainly the trends we see as a proportion of their disposable income -- all the stats we can find are that they, more than most generations, like to use it on experiences.

我認為，我們所看到的趨勢當然是他們可支配收入的一部分——我們能找到的所有統計數據表明，他們比大多數世代更喜歡將其用於體驗。

And thankfully, travel is one of those experiences that they like to use it on.

值得慶幸的是，旅行是他們喜歡使用它的體驗之一。

Chris, that leads me to the follow-up question which is the Stop Clicking Around Campaign.

克里斯，這讓我想到了後續問題，即「停止點擊活動」。

If you can give us any details on how you are gauging the success of that and the impact positive or negative to the Company and to the owners?

您能否向我們詳細說明您如何衡量此舉措的成功以及對公司和所有者的正面或負面影響？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Great question.

很好的問題。

We gave you some of the stats that I think matter the most.

我們為您提供了一些我認為最重要的統計數據。

So we are about a year -- not quite a year from anniversary from the beginning of that campaign.

從活動開始算起，距離週年紀念日還不到一年。

And if you look at some of the stats we disclosed earlier, about 9 million new Honors members.

如果你看我們之前披露的一些統計數據，你會發現大約有 900 萬新榮譽會員。

That number is higher now because we have more members this year.

現在這個數字更高，因為今年我們有更多的成員。

So probably over 10 million new Honors members.

因此可能會有超過 1000 萬新榮譽會員。

You look at Honors occupancy up nearly 400 basis points, and I think most important statistic is over 200 basis points in channel shift.

你看榮譽入住率上升了近 400 個基點，我認為最重要的統計數據是管道轉變超過 200 個基點。

I would say leading to our direct low-cost online channels, either web direct or mobile, that suggests to me, while this is early days and while the Stop Clicking Around Campaign is done, you're going to see us do all sorts of other things including what you just saw with Honors to continue to build direct relationships.

我想說的是，這會導致我們的直接低成本線上管道，無論是網路直接管道還是行動管道，這對我來說意味著，雖然現在還處於早期階段，而且當停止點擊活動完成時，你會看到我們做各種各樣的事情其他事情，包括您剛剛看到的榮譽課程，以繼續建立直接關係。

I would say it's been quite successful.

我想說這是相當成功的。

In the end, what our job is, is to drive profitability for owners, and that means top line, but also bottom line and distribution cost is not an insignificant component of their cost structure.

最後，我們的工作是提高業主的獲利能力，這意味著收入，但也意味著利潤，分銷成本並不是其成本結構中不重要的組成部分。

So if I look at the channel shift that has occurred, and we look at what's happening from a net rate point of view across all our channels, I think in the end, our owners -- I can't say every single owner in every single circumstance that it's worked perfectly, but I would say across the system, it has worked really well.

因此，如果我看看已經發生的管道轉變，並從我們所有管道的淨利率角度來看正在發生的事情，我認為最終，我們的所有者 - 我不能說每個所有者在單一情況下，它運行得非常好，但我想說，在整個系統中，它運行得非常好。

We have shifted, we have obviously maintained growth and market share, and shifted by a couple hundred-plus basis points, business to channels that drive better net revenue for our owners.

我們已經轉變，我們顯然保持了成長和市場份額，並將業務轉變為為我們的所有者帶來更好淨收入的管道，並提高了數百個基點。

So as I talk to our owners, again, I can find an exception to anything, but broadly, we just had a joint OAC meeting with 100 plus of our most important, largest owners in LA as part of ALIS.

因此，當我再次與我們的業主交談時，我可以找到任何例外情況，但總的來說，作為 ALIS 的一部分，我們剛剛與洛杉磯 100 多名最重要、最大的業主舉行了聯合 OAC 會議。

They all seem very, very happy with what we're doing in continuing to try to build direct relationships with our customers.

他們似乎都對我們繼續努力與客戶建立直接關係所做的事情感到非常非常滿意。

Thanks, Chris.

謝謝，克里斯。

Vince Ciepiel, Cleveland Research Company.

文斯‧西皮爾 (Vince Ciepiel)，克里夫蘭研究公司。

I just had a quick question on the trajectory of brand launches.

我只是想問一個關於品牌發布軌蹟的快速問題。

We've had a handful of new launches in the last two years, and I know there's still some white space remaining, but what should the trajectory of those new brand launches look like?

過去兩年我們推出了一些新產品，我知道仍然存在一些空白，但這些新品牌發布的軌跡應該是什麼樣的？

And secondarily, when can these new brands start to become a material piece of that 55,000 rooms that you add each year?

其次，這些新品牌什麼時候可以開始成為您每年新增的 55,000 間客房的重要組成部分？

Well, we do these things -- hopefully, we make it look easy when we do them, but it's not easy because not only do we have to figure out with our customers ultimately what resonates with them, but we then have to commercially make sure it's successful.

好吧，我們做這些事情——希望我們在做這些事情時看起來很容易，但這並不容易，因為我們不僅必須與客戶最終弄清楚什麼能引起他們的共鳴，而且我們還必須在商業上確保成功了。

Because if we go out and launch something that doesn't really work for owners, then they're not going to invest the capital.

因為如果我們出去推出一些對業主來說並不真正有用的東西，那麼他們就不會投資資金。

So we try and give each of these a proper berth.

因此，我們嘗試給每個人一個適當的位置。

And they all sort of go through a process.

他們都經歷了一個過程。

We obviously had great success last year with Tru, but we're really still -- we haven't even opened our first Tru.

顯然，去年我們的 Tru 取得了巨大成功，但我們實際上還沒有開業——我們甚至還沒有開設我們的第一家 Tru。

So we're very focused on making sure that works commercially.

因此，我們非常注重確保其在商業上有效。

Tapestry, which is a bit easier because these are largely conversion hotels, existing hotels, it's plugging it into our engines.

Tapestry，這更容易一些，因為這些主要是改建的酒店，現有的酒店，它將它插入我們的引擎。

Which again I make sound easy.

我再次讓這聽起來很容易。

My team is wincing, probably, all over the world.

我的團隊可能在全世界都在畏縮。

It's not easy, but it's easier than starting from scratch.

這並不容易，但比從頭開始還要容易。

So we were able to move Tapestry along a little bit faster.

因此我們能夠更快地推動 Tapestry 的發展。

And we need to get that under our belt and get some momentum on the development -- we have momentum.

我們需要抓住這一點，並獲得一些發展動力——我們有動力。

We need to get more momentum, we need to get some open.

我們需要獲得更多動力，我們需要一些開放。

We have four other concepts.

我們還有其他四個概念。

I think we described them all very briefly, but nonetheless, described them at the analyst day in December that we're developing.

我認為我們對它們的描述非常簡單，但儘管如此，我們還是在 12 月的分析師日上對我們正在開發的它們進行了描述。

I think eventually we will do them all.

我想最終我們會完成所有這些。

And the cadence is likely -- maybe one more in the soft brand area that we could do this year, because again, more conversion, a little bit easier in terms of incubating it here.

這種節奏是可能的——也許我們今年可以在軟品牌領域再做一次，因為同樣，更多的轉化，在這裡孵化它更容易一點。

The others I think will take a little bit longer because they are more complicated, and we're going to want to give what we've done a chance to gain some momentum.

我認為其他的事情會花費更長的時間，因為它們更複雜，我們希望給我們已經完成的工作一個機會來獲得一些動力。

In terms of when -- if you look at what we've already done, what's sort of in the supply and in the pipeline, we've already got 90,000 rooms out of the brands including Home2 that we've launched over the last half decade.

就時間而言，如果你看看我們已經做了什麼，供應和管道中的情況，我們已經從包括我們在過去一半推出的 Home2 在內的品牌中獲得了 90,000 間客房十年。

So I think these things can ramp up quickly.

所以我認為這些事情會很快增加。

We have 400 deals in Tru alone, and I think by the end of last year, we had 16,000 or 18,000 rooms technically in the pipeline, 37,000 with what's in progress, so the rest of those will go in the pipeline.

光是在 Tru，我們就有 400 筆交易，我想到去年年底，技術上我們有 16,000 或 18,000 個房間正在籌備中，37,000 個房間正在開發中，所以其餘的都將在籌備中。

So Tru alone will probably have 30,000 or 40,000 rooms in the pipeline in the not-too-distant future, and those things are relatively easier to finance and smaller bites given the size of the deals.

因此，在不久的將來，僅 Tru 一家公司就可能擁有 30,000 或 40,000 間客房，考慮到交易規模，這些項目相對更容易融資，而且規模較小。

Those things will start to -- Trus will start to happen much more quickly.

這些事情將開始 - Trus 將開始更快發生。

So I think our new brands are already contributing significantly to the pipeline.

所以我認為我們的新品牌已經為管道做出了重大貢獻。

And in the case of Home2 particularly, the existing stock, but you'll start to see these things really contribute in terms of its existing supply in a much more meaningful way over the next two and three years.

就 Home2 而言，尤其是現有庫存，但您將開始看到這些東西在未來兩三年內以更有意義的方式對其現有供應做出了真正的貢獻。

Great, thank you.

太好了謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude today's question-and-answer session.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節到此結束。

I'd now like to turn the conference call back over to Chris Nassetta for any closing remarks.

我現在想將電話會議轉回給克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）做總結發言。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Obviously, it's been quite a busy time here at Hilton, as well as at Park and HGV.

顯然，希爾頓、Park 和 HGV 的這段時期非常忙碌。

We are really thrilled for all three companies, as I said earlier, and we're pretty optimistic about how the year is playing out.

正如我之前所說，我們對這三家公司感到非常興奮，我們對今年的表現非常樂觀。

We look forward to getting back together with you after the first quarter to give you a little bit more color on how things are playing out.

我們期待在第一季結束後與您再次見面，讓您對事情的進展有更多的了解。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And, ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束。

We do thank you for attending today's presentation.

我們非常感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。