希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Hilton Worldwide Holdings third-quarter 2016 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加希爾頓全球控股公司 2016 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Christian Charnaux, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級副總裁 Christian Charnaux。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Denise.

謝謝你，丹妮絲。

Welcome to the Hilton Worldwide third-quarter 2016 earnings call.

歡迎參加希爾頓全球 2016 年第三季財報電話會議。

Before we begin we would like to remind you that our discussion this morning will include forward-looking statements.

在我們開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天早上的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。

Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements and forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today.

實際結果可能與前瞻性聲明中所示的結果有重大差異，並且今天所做的前瞻性聲明僅從今天起生效。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。

For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed form 10-K.

有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at www.hiltonworldwide.com.

您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 www.hiltonworldwide.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

This morning Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the Company's outlook.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。

Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer will then review our third-quarter results and provide details on our expectations for the remainder of the year.

我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將審查我們第三季的業績，並提供我們對今年剩餘時間的預期的詳細資訊。

Following their remarks we will be available to respond to your questions.

在他們發表講話後，我們將回答您的問題。

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Christian, and thanks to all of you for joining us this morning.

謝謝克里斯蒂安，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。

Even with macro conditions that continue to underperform expectations, we delivered adjusted EBITDA and EPS consistent with our guidance, and continued to increase our global share of development activity in the quarter.

即使宏觀環境繼續低於預期，我們仍實現了與我們的指導一致的調整後 EBITDA 和每股收益，並繼續增加本季全球開發活動的份額。

Our objective is to drive value beyond what the broader economy gives us, and we believe our portfolio of clearly defined brands with global scale and distribution will continue to drive market share premiums, industry-leading net unit growth, and ultimately result in superior returns to our stockholders over time.

我們的目標是推動價值超越更廣泛的經濟賦予我們的價值，我們相信，我們具有全球規模和分銷的明確品牌組合將繼續推動市場份額溢價、行業領先的淨單位增長，並最終為客戶帶來豐厚的回報。

We also have the opportunity to drive additional value by fully activating all segments of our business and achieving meaningful tax and capital market efficiencies through the spinoff of Park Hotels & Resorts and Hilton Grand Vacations, both of which are on track for completion around year end.

我們還有機會透過充分啟動我們業務的所有部門並透過分拆 Park Hotels & Resorts 和 Hilton Grand Vacations 實現有意義的稅收和資本市場效率來推動附加價值，這兩家公司都有望在年底左右完成。

Moving specifically to the third-quarter results, our systemwide comparable RevPAR growth for the quarter was 1.3% on a currency neutral basis, driven entirely by rate, strong group business supported RevPAR growth in the quarter, but corporate transient was softer than expected, particularly in September.

具體來說，第三季度的業績，在貨幣中性的基礎上，本季度全系統可比每間房收入增長為1.3%，完全由利率推動，強勁的集團業務支持了本季度每間房收入的成長，但企業瞬態情況低於預期，尤其是在九月。

Calendar shifts had a negative impact in the quarter, as the unfavorable timing of July 4 more than offset the benefit of a favorable September holiday calendar.

日曆變化對該季度產生了負面影響，因為 7 月 4 日的不利時機遠遠抵消了有利的 9 月假期日曆的好處。

Quarterly results were also negatively impacted by continued weakness in oil and gas markets and by softer international performance, with political instability and terrorism in Turkey, Belgium, and France, strengthening currency in Japan, and VAT charges in China.

季度業績也受到石油和天然氣市場持續疲軟以及國際表現疲軟、土耳其、比利時和法國的政治不穩定和恐怖主義、日本貨幣走強以及中國增值稅費的負面影響。

As we look forward into Q4, we anticipate softness in transient growth to continue, especially given the unfavorable October calendar shift.

展望第四季度，我們預計短暫成長將持續疲軟，特別是考慮到 10 月不利的日曆變化。

Additionally, November and December are typically low group months, resulting in lower transient compression.

此外，十一月和十二月通常是低群體月份，導致瞬態壓縮較低。

Combined, we think this will result in flat to slightly positive systemwide RevPAR growth for the fourth quarter.

綜合而言，我們認為這將導致第四季度全系統 RevPAR 持平或略有成長。

As a result, we forecast full year 2016 systemwide RevPAR growth of 1.5% to 2%.

因此，我們預測 2016 年全年全系統 RevPAR 成長 1.5% 至 2%。

As noted on our earlier calls, our prior guidance was based on 2016 US GDP growth expectations of 1.5% to 2.5%, while our current outlook incorporates a more tempered consensus view of 1.25% to 1.5% GDP growth, down plus or minus 50 basis points since July.

正如我們先前的電話會議中所指出的，我們先前的指引是基於2016 年美國GDP 成長1.5% 至2.5% 的預期，而我們目前的展望則包含了較為溫和的共識觀點，即GDP 成長1.25%至1.5%，下調了正負50 個基點7月以來的積分。

Year to date, at a high level, when adjusting for calendar shifts and other one-time events, we actually see pretty consistent RevPAR performance across the three major buckets of demand.

今年迄今為止，在較高的水平上，當根據日曆變化和其他一次性事件進行調整時，我們實際上看到三大需求領域的可售房收入表現相當一致。

Roughly half of our mix is business transient which has been growing at approximately 1%, with the rest split pretty evenly between leisure transient and group business, both of which have been growing roughly 100 to 200 basis points above that.

我們的業務組合中大約有一半是商務短期業務，其增長率約為1%，其餘部分則相當均勻地分佈在休閒短期業務和團體業務中，兩者的增長均比此高出約100 至200個基點。

Looking forward, we continue to expect that the lodging cycle will align with the broader business cycle.

展望未來，我們繼續預期住宿週期將與更廣泛的商業週期保持一致。

In the US, our largest market, macro indicators point to a more positive outlook on the demand side as we head into next year, with forecasts for slightly accelerating GDP growth, growth of nonresidential fixed investment, rising corporate profits, incremental jobs growth, and certainly having the election cycle behind us won't hurt.

在我們最大的市場美國，進入明年，宏觀指標顯示需求方面的前景更加樂觀，預計 GDP 增長、非住宅固定投資增長、企業利潤上升、就業增量增長和就業增長將小幅加快。不會有什麼壞處。

Paired with easier comps, this suggests modest demand acceleration from current levels.

與更容易的比較相結合，這表明需求從當前水準適度加速。

The two pieces of business where we have reasonable sightlines, corporate negotiated and group, also support a potential acceleration in demand next year.

我們擁有合理視野的兩項業務，即企業談判和集團，也支持明年需求的潛在加速。

We're in the early stage of negotiating corporate rates for next year, and given record US occupancy levels, we expect to increase rates roughly 3% to 4%.

我們正處於明年企業費率談判的早期階段，考慮到美國創紀錄的入住率，我們預計費率將提高約 3% 至 4%。

Similarly, in the first half of 2017, we're seeing mid-single digit systemwide group revenue position growth.

同樣，2017 年上半年，我們看到全系統集團營收實現中個位數成長。

This anticipated US demand growth will be paired with supply growth that is expected to increase around 30 basis points next year to slightly less than 2%, which is well below prior cycle peaks and still below long-term averages.

美國預期的需求成長將與明年的供應成長相匹配，供應成長預計將增加約 30 個基點，略低於 2%，遠低於先前週期的峰值，且仍低於長期平均水平。

There is good visibility in the new capacity given the years of lead time, and annual estimates of supply growth this cycle have pretty consistently been higher than what has actually been delivered.

考慮到多年的交貨時間，新產能的可見性良好，且本週期的供應成長年度估計值始終高於實際交付量。

Overall development continues to be largely driven by economically rational projects in markets that can support room growth, and with brands that are the most desired by customers, particularly as lending standards have tightened in this lower growth market.

整體發展繼續在很大程度上受到市場上經濟合理的項目的推動，這些項目可以支持客房增長，以及客戶最想要的品牌，特別是在這個低增長市場的貸款標準收緊的情況下。

Overall, we believe 2017 will be another year of positive RevPAR growth, in the 1% to 3% range, but would note that it is early and there's still a great deal of uncertainty on how well the economy will actually perform next year.

總體而言，我們認為2017 年將是每間可用客房收入(RevPAR) 又一個正增長的一年，增幅將在1% 至3% 之間，但我們要指出的是，現在還為時過早，明年經濟的實際表現仍存在很大的不確定性。

The other key growth driver for our business is net unit growth, which adds more visibility than topline growth.

我們業務的另一個關鍵成長動力是淨單位成長，這比營收成長更具可見性。

Our pace of room signings continues to increase, and we expect another record year of more than 100,000 room signings.

我們的房間簽約速度持續加快，我們預計今年將再創紀錄，超過 10 萬間房間簽約。

This fuels our pipeline, now at approximately 300,000 rooms representing a 15% year-over-year increase.

這推動了我們的客房數量增加，目前客房數量約為 30 萬間，較去年同期成長 15%。

Additionally, construction starts are 14% ahead of last year meaning half the pipeline, or nearly 150,000 rooms, are under construction and largely expected to open over the next three years.

此外，開工建設比去年提前 14%，這意味著一半的管道（即近 15 萬個房間）正在建設中，預計將在未來三年內開業。

As a result, we expect to increase our net rooms additions to more than 50,000 rooms next year.

因此，我們預計明年淨增客房數將超過 50,000 間。

We continue to lead the industry with 6% to 7% annualized organic net unit growth, with little or no capital commitment on our part.

我們繼續以 6% 至 7% 的年化有機淨單位成長率引領產業，而我們的資本承諾很少或根本沒有。

Our accelerating capital-light growth is driven by all of our high quality, clearly defined brands, with each of our brand segments at record pipelines.

我們加速的輕資本成長是由我們所有的高品質、明確的品牌所推動的，我們的每個品牌細分市場都在創紀錄的成長。

We continued to accelerate our growth by deploying existing brands to new markets and organically launching new brands.

我們透過將現有品牌部署到新市場並有機地推出新品牌來繼續加速成長。

Regarding specific brands, we have some developments that I'm excited to share.

關於特定品牌，我們有一些進展，我很高興與大家分享。

In luxury, the Waldorf-Astoria Beverly Hills will begin accepting reservations this month for its opening next summer, and the Waldorf-Astoria San Francisco was recently added to our pipeline.

在豪華酒店方面，比佛利山莊華爾道夫酒店將於本月開始接受明年夏天開幕的預訂，而舊金山華爾道夫酒店最近也加入了我們的籌備中。

We just celebrated the 750th hotel opening in our All Suites category, which includes our Embassy, Homewood and Home2 brands.

我們剛剛慶祝了全套房酒店類別中第 750 家酒店的開業，其中包括我們的 Embassy、Homewood 和 Home2 品牌。

As a reminder, Home2 is the third-largest brand under development in the United States, only five years after its launch.

需要提醒的是，Home2 是美國正在開發的第三大品牌，距離推出僅五年。

More recently, we've been further leveraging Home2's success by developing dual-branded products with Tru, our newest and fastest-growing brand.

最近，我們進一步利用 Home2 的成功，與我們最新且成長最快的品牌 Tru 一起開發雙品牌產品。

We now have more than 140 Tru hotels representing nearly 14,000 rooms in the pipeline, up an impressive 55% from the second quarter.

我們現在擁有超過 140 家 Tru 飯店，代表著近 14,000 間客房，比第二季成長了 55%，令人印象深刻。

Including all rooms in various stages of development, we have 360 hotels representing approximately 35,000 rooms.

包括所有處於不同開發階段的客房，我們擁有 360 家飯店，約 35,000 間客房。

The brand continues to gain tremendous traction with developers, and we're looking forward to opening our first Tru early next year.

該品牌繼續受到開發商的巨大關注，我們期待明年初開設我們的第一家 Tru。

Our industry-leading rate of net unit growth off a base of nearly 800,000 rooms continues to build our scale.

我們以近 80 萬間客房為基礎，實現業界領先的淨單位成長率，並持續擴大我們的規模。

We're in a business where scale matters, and we are leaning in on these scale advantages to innovate faster, improving both our guest experience and our owners' returns.

我們所處的行業規模至關重要，我們正在依靠這些規模優勢來更快地創新，從而改善我們的賓客體驗和業主回報。

Guests continue to prefer our web direct channels, with share increasing to 28% of distribution mix in the quarter, our highest level ever.

客人繼續青睞我們的網路直銷管道，本季分銷組合中的份額增至 28%，這是我們有史以來的最高水準。

Our guests have successfully completed 20 million digital check ins.

我們的客人已成功完成 2000 萬次數位登記。

The world's going mobile, and our top-rated hotel booking app in the Apple Store is the Hilton Honors app, which is downloaded on average every eight seconds.

世界正在走向行動化，我們 Apple Store 中評價最高的飯店預訂應用程式是希爾頓榮譽客會應用程序，平均每八秒下載一次。

Through our app, guests can download their room key on their mobile device and head straight to their self-selected room upon arrival in nearly 600 hotels today.

透過我們的應用程序，客人可以在行動裝置上下載房間鑰匙，並在抵達近 600 家酒店後直接前往自己選擇的房間。

Over the next year, we expect to deploy this capability to every one of our hotels in 80 major North American markets, representing nearly half of our total global system.

明年，我們預計將這項功能部署到 80 個主要北美市場的每一家飯店，占我們全球系統總量的近一半。

Earlier this week, we announced the sale of Blackstone shares, representing 25% of the Company, to HNA Group, a leader in the global travel and tourism industry, with market-leading positions in aviation, hospitality, and travel services.

本週早些時候，我們宣布將占公司 25% 股份的 Blackstone 股份出售給海航集團。

We believe this strategic sale at a premium price with a thoughtful shareholder agreement that includes a two-year lockup, a perpetual standstill and limited voting rights is a win for all parties.

我們相信，此次以溢價進行的策略出售以及一份深思熟慮的股東協議（包括兩年禁售期、永久停頓和有限投票權）對各方來說都是雙贏。

On the strategic side, there are many opportunities to leverage both Hilton and HNA's respective travel assets and capabilities.

在策略方面，有很多機會可以利用希爾頓和海航各自的旅遊資產和能力。

While we're in the early stages, we anticipate that connecting our hotel system to HNA's customers through their online and off-line travel agencies, and their extensive airline network and loyalty program could be of meaningful mutual benefit to both companies.

雖然我們還處於早期階段，但我們預計，透過海航的線上和線下旅行社及其廣泛的航空公司網絡和忠誠度計劃將我們的酒店系統與海航的客戶連接起來，可能會給兩家公司帶來有意義的互惠互利。

We also believe that HNA's financial businesses and extensive relationship should afford opportunities to support our development growth both in and outside of China.

我們也相信，海航的金融業務和廣泛的關係應該為支持我們在國內外的發展提供機會。

Lastly, as we near the completion of our announced spinoffs of Park and HGV, we would like to provide you with further information on each of the Companies' strategies, and facilitate further interaction with the leadership of all three Companies.

最後，隨著我們宣布的 Park 和 HGV 分拆即將完成，我們希望向您提供有關各公司戰略的更多信息，並促進與所有三個公司領導層的進一步互動。

I'm happy to announce we plan to host and Investor Day on Thursday, December 8 at the Conrad New York, and we look forward to catching up with all of you more than.

我很高興地宣布，我們計劃於 12 月 8 日星期四在紐約康萊德酒店舉辦投資者日活動，我們非常期待與大家見面。

In closing, although our third quarter topline growth was weaker than expected, and macro uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment, we are cautiously optimistic heading into 2017.

最後，儘管我們第三季的營收成長弱於預期，且宏觀不確定性持續打壓市場情緒，但我們對 2017 年持謹慎樂觀的態度。

We think our portfolio is uniquely positioned to further enhance value through sustainable, industry-leading unit growth, and full activation of our three businesses.

我們認為，我們的投資組合具有獨特的優勢，可以透過可持續、行業領先的單位成長和全面激活我們的三項業務來進一步提升價值。

With that, I'm now going to turn the call over to Kevin for a little bit more detail on the quarter.

現在，我將把電話轉給凱文，以了解有關本季的更多詳細資訊。

Kevin?

凱文？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning everyone.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。

In the third quarter systemwide RevPAR growth was tempered by a variety of factors, most notably a softer than expected macro environment, with geopolitical uncertainty further weighing on growth.

第三季度，全系統的RevPAR成長受到多種因素的影響，最明顯的是宏觀環境比預期疲軟，地緣政治的不確定性進一步影響了成長。

In addition, we estimate that one-time items such as calendar shifts and declines in oil and gas markets pressured topline performance by 100 to 150 basis points in the quarter, including approximately 70 basis points of net drag from the July 4 and Jewish holiday calendar shifts.

此外，我們估計，日曆變化以及石油和天然氣市場下滑等一次性因素使本季的營收業績受到100 至150 個基點的壓力，其中包括7 月4 日和猶太節日日曆帶來的約70 個基點的淨拖累轉變。

Despite more modest topline gains, adjusted EBITDA of $765 million and adjusted EPS of $0.23 per share were in line with expectations, supported by good cost control and solid performance in our purchasing business.

儘管營收成長較為溫和，但在良好的成本控制和採購業務穩健業績的支持下，調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.65 億美元，調整後的每股收益為 0.23 美元，符合預期。

As Chris discussed, transient business was below expectations in the quarter, with RevPAR up 40 basis points.

正如 Chris 所討論的，本季的瞬態業務低於預期，RevPAR 成長了 40 個基點。

Business transient continued to be largely weak across industries and geographies with particular weakness in oil and gas markets.

各行業和地區的業務瞬態持續大幅疲軟，石油和天然氣市場尤其疲軟。

Leisure transient continues to be stronger than business transient on a relative basis, but was affected by terrorism and political instability in international markets.

相對而言，休閒旅遊繼續強於商業旅遊，但受到恐怖主義和國際市場政治不穩定的影響。

Group business increased approximately 4% in the quarter, with America's owned and operated group revenue up nearly 8% versus prior year on strong ADR gains and more than 100 basis points of room night growth.

本季集團業務成長約 4%，其中美國航空擁有和營運的集團營收較去年同期成長近 8%，這得益於強勁的 ADR 成長和超過 100 個基點的間夜成長。

Convention and association business was particularly strong.

會議和協會業務尤其強勁。

Solid group trends also drove strong growth in America's owned and operated FNB revenue, which increased nearly 7% versus prior year, mostly as a result of 11% growth in banquets revenue.

穩健的集團趨勢也推動了美國擁有和經營的 FNB 收入的強勁增長，與上年相比增長了近 7%，這主要是由於宴會收入增長了 11%。

Turning to our segments in the quarter, management franchise fees grew more than 7% year over year to $470 million, in line with our expectations.

就本季我們的細分市場而言，管理特許經營費年增超過 7%，達到 4.7 億美元，符合我們的預期。

Franchise fees increased over 8%, boosted by new hotel ramps, stronger-than-expected license fees, and solid new deal volume as Tru signings continue to outpace our expectations.

受新酒店擴張、強於預期的許可費以及 Tru 簽約量繼續超出我們預期的穩定新交易量的推動，特許經營費增長了 8% 以上。

Base management fees were flat versus the prior year due to softness in Japan, while one-time items helped incentive management fees, which were up nearly 9%.

由於日本經濟疲軟，基本管理費與去年持平，而一次性項目有助於激勵管理費，上漲近 9%。

In our ownership segment, flat RevPAR growth and a 4% reduction in rooms largely driven by three lease removals contributed to a decline in adjusted EBITDA to $264 million in the quarter.

在我們的自有物業部門，RevPAR 成長持平，而客房數量減少 4%，這主要是由於三項租約取消所致，導致本季度調整後 EBITDA 下降至 2.64 億美元。

RevPAR performance was primarily driven by weakness in the New York and Chicago markets, as supply growth and the convention calendar affected performance.

RevPAR 表現主要受到紐約和芝加哥市場疲軟的推動，因為供應成長和會議日曆影響了表現。

Results were further pressured by softness in Japan; however, strength in our Hawaii properties help to mitigate some of these overhangs.

日本經濟疲軟進一步打壓業績；然而，我們夏威夷地產的實力有助於緩解其中一些問題。

Timeshare adjusted EBITDA was $85 million in the quarter.

本季分時度假調整後 EBITDA 為 8,500 萬美元。

Overall timeshare sales volume increased 15% as a result of increased tour flow and net volume per guest of 5% and 9% respectively.

由於旅遊流量和每位客人的淨交易量分別增加了 5% 和 9%，分時度假整體銷量增加了 15%。

Third-party developed intervals accounted for 63% of intervals sold in the quarter, up from 61% in the second quarter.

第三方開發的區間佔本季銷售區間的 63%，高於第二季的 61%。

At our current sales pace we have nearly six years of inventory, or 127,000 intervals, more than 80% of which are third-party developed.

按照我們目前的銷售速度，我們擁有近六年的庫存，即 127,000 個間隔，其中 80% 以上是第三方開發的。

Turning to regional performance and outlook, in the US, comparable RevPAR grew 1.5% in the quarter.

談到區域業績和前景，在美國，本季可比 RevPAR 成長了 1.5%。

Performance was supported by good group business, with Orlando and Hawaii being the primary beneficiaries.

良好的集團業務支撐了業績，其中奧蘭多和夏威夷是主要受益者。

Solid leisure demand during the summer months also contributed to positive growth.

夏季強勁的休閒需求也促進了積極的成長。

Results were affected by broader weakness in corporate transient business and oil and gas markets, which we expect to pressure fourth-quarter performance as well.

結果受到企業瞬態業務以及石油和天然氣市場整體疲軟的影響，我們預計這也將對第四季度的業績帶來壓力。

To date, October trends are softer than anticipated and include an additional drag from the impact of hurricane Matthew.

迄今為止，十月份的趨勢比預期的要疲軟，也受到颶風馬修影響的額外拖累。

For full year 2016 we forecast US RevPAR growth in the low single digits.

對於 2016 年全年，我們預測美國 RevPAR 的成長幅度為低個位數。

In the Americas outside the US, RevPAR rose a strong 6% versus the prior year, surpassing expectations.

在美國以外的美洲地區，RevPAR 較上年強勁成長 6%，超乎預期。

RevPAR in Canada increased by approximately 9%, driven by good group demand.

在良好的團體需求的推動下，加拿大的 RevPAR 成長了約 9%。

Growth in the Caribbean was tempered by Zika current concerns, and Brazil continued to struggle given economic weakness, offsetting any Olympic-related demand gains.

加勒比地區的成長受到當前寨卡病毒擔憂的影響，而巴西由於經濟疲軟而繼續陷入困境，抵消了與奧運相關的需求成長。

For full year 2016 we expect RevPAR growth in the region to be in the low to mid single-digit range.

對於 2016 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將在中低個位數範圍內。

RevPAR in Europe decreased 70 basis points in the quarter due to weaker performance in continental Europe, partially offset by a 2% RevPAR gain in the UK and Ireland.

由於歐洲大陸的表現疲軟，歐洲的每間可用房收入本季下降了 70 個基點，但英國和愛爾蘭每間可用房收入增長 2% 部分抵消了這一影響。

Turkey suffered a 40% year-over-year decrease in the quarter due to terrorist attacks and political instability, which depressed inbound travel during the country's peak summer season.

由於恐怖攻擊和政治不穩定，導致該國夏季旅遊旺季的入境旅遊受到抑制，土耳其本季年減 40%。

Terror attacks also weighed on France and Belgium, leading to declines in transient performance.

恐怖攻擊也給法國和比利時帶來了壓力，導致短暫的業績下滑。

While it's still too early to know the implications of Brexit, we expect increased uncertainty surrounding potential outcomes to temper regional performance.

儘管現在了解英國脫歐的影響還為時過早，但我們預計潛在結果的不確定性將會增加，進而影響地區表現。

For full year 2016 we expect slightly positive RevPAR growth for the European region.

對於 2016 年全年，我們預計歐洲地區的 RevPAR 將略有成長。

RevPAR in the Middle East and Africa dropped 2.6% in the quarter, driven by unfavorable timing of Ramadan and the Haj, coupled with political unrest in certain African markets.

由於齋戒月和朝覲時機不利，加上某些非洲市場的政治動盪，中東和非洲的每間可用客房收入本季下降了 2.6%。

Improved leisure performance in Egypt and an extension of the royal protocol in Saudi Arabia mitigated these shortfalls.

埃及休閒表現的改善和沙烏地阿拉伯皇家禮儀的延伸緩解了這些不足。

Our full year 2016 RevPAR growth forecast for the region is slightly negative.

我們對該地區 2016 年全年 RevPAR 成長的預測略為負面。

In the Asia-Pacific region RevPAR increased 60 basis points largely due to slowing performance in Japan, as the stronger yen continued to reduce leisure demand, and slowing exports continue to weigh on the country's economic growth.

在亞太地區，RevPAR 成長了 60 個基點，這主要是由於日本經濟成長放緩，因為日圓走強繼續減少休閒需求，而出口放緩繼續拖累該國的經濟成長。

Results were further pressured by the typhoon in September.

九月的颱風進一步給業績帶來壓力。

RevPAR growth in China increased nearly 3% during the quarter.

本季中國每間可用客房收入成長近 3%。

China growth was tempered however by the recent introduction of a nationwide VAT tax.

然而，由於最近在全國範圍內徵收增值稅，中國的增長受到了抑制。

We expect RevPAR growth in the Asia-Pacific region to increase in the mid-single digits for the full year, with RevPAR in China relatively stronger in a similar range.

我們預計亞太地區全年的 RevPAR 成長將達到中個位數，而中國的 RevPAR 在類似範圍內相對較強。

Both during and subsequent to the third quarter we successfully completed a number of capital markets transactions, all with the goal of better positioning Hilton, Park and HGV ahead of the spins around year end.

在第三季期間及之後，我們成功完成了多項資本市場交易，所有這些交易的目標都是在年底前更好地定位希爾頓、Park 和 HGV。

Through these deals we reduced interest rates, pushed out and staggered our maturities, and secured greater financial flexibility for each Company.

透過這些交易，我們降低了利率，延遲並錯開我們的到期日，並為每家公司確保了更大的財務靈活性。

There is more detail on these transactions in our recently filed updated form 10s, and we intend to provide further detail on the capital structures of all three Companies at our Investor Day in December.

我們最近提交的更新後的 10 表格中提供了有關這些交易的更多詳細信息，我們打算在 12 月份的投資者日提供有關所有三家公司資本結構的更多詳細信息。

During the quarter we also paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share bringing year-to-date cash dividends to $207 million.

本季我們也支付了每股 0.07 美元的季度現金股息，使年初至今的現金股息達到 2.07 億美元。

Our Board has authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.07 per share to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2016.

我們的董事會已批准在 2016 年第四季支付每股 0.07 美元的季度現金股利。

As Chris mentioned, given continued softness in the broader macro environment we are lowering our full year 2016 RevPAR growth guidance to 1.5% to 2%, and reducing our full year adjusted EBITDA and EPS guidance ranges to reflect softer expected topline performance.

正如Chris 所提到的，鑑於更廣泛的宏觀環境持續疲軟，我們將2016 年全年RevPAR 成長指引下調至1.5% 至2%，並降低全年調整後EBITDA 和EPS 指導範圍，以反映預期營收表現疲軟。

We now expect full year adjusted EBITDA of $2.96 billion to $2.99 billion, and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.86 to $0.89 per share.

我們目前預計全年調整後 EBITDA 為 29.6 億美元至 29.9 億美元，特殊項目調整後稀釋每股收益為 0.86 至 0.89 美元。

As with prior guidance please note that our full-year ranges do not incorporate the impact of our intended real estate and timeshare spins.

與先前的指導一樣，請注意，我們的全年範圍不包括我們預期的房地產和分時度假旋轉的影響。

For the fourth quarter of 2016 we expect systemwide RevPAR growth to be flat to modestly up, we expect adjusted EBITDA between $736 million and $776 million, and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of $0.20 to $0.23.

對於2016 年第四季度，我們預計全系統RevPAR 成長將持平或小幅上升，我們預計調整後EBITDA 在7.36 億美元至7.76 億美元之間，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為0.20 美元至0.23 美元。

Further details on our third-quarter results and updated guidance can be found in the earnings release we published earlier this morning.

有關我們第三季度業績和更新指導的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天上午早些時候發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks we would now like to open the line for any questions you may have.

我們準備好的演講到此結束，現在我們想解答您可能有的任何問題。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電者指示）

Denise, can we have our first question please?

丹尼斯，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Robin Farley, UBS.

羅賓法利，瑞銀集團。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This is actually Arpine for Robin.

這其實是羅賓的阿平。

Thank you for the detail on 2017 RevPAR in the prepared remarks but, could you just elaborate a little bit more in terms of factors you're looking at today?

感謝您在準備好的發言中提供有關 2017 年 RevPAR 的詳細信息，但是您能否就您今天關注的因素詳細說明一下？

Specifically, what North American RevPAR is the current guidance for 2017 pricing and then in terms of group pace for 2017 overall, not just the first half of the year, what are you looking at today versus same time last year?

具體來說，目前 2017 年定價的北美 RevPAR 指引是多少，然後就 2017 年整體（而不僅僅是上半年）的集團進度而言，您今天與去年同期相比有何看法？

Yes.

是的。

Happy to do that.

很高興這樣做。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I know that's pretty much what is on everybody's mind is, what does the go-forward set up look like and I would say, as we said in the prepared comments, we've given you a sense of what we think.

我知道這幾乎是每個人的想法，前進的設置是什麼樣的，我想說，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們已經讓您了解了我們的想法。

We're in the final stages of going through our budgets which are a granular buildup of every asset, every property around the world, aggregated together, to come to a result, and best we can give you guidance today, we come out at the -- in the 1% to 3% range.

我們正處於預算的最後階段，預算是世界各地每項資產、每項財產的精細積累，匯總在一起，以得出結果，我們今天可以為您提供最好的指導，我們在——在1%到3%的範圍內。

I think that the underpinning of that I covered a bit in my comments.

我認為我在評論中已經闡述了這一點的基礎。

I think the largest contributor to that is what we suggested, which is a belief based on what we see as a consensus view, that the broader economy, particularly here in the US, but I think on a global basis, is projected to pick up just a bit.

我認為對此做出最大貢獻的是我們的建議，這是一種基於我們所認為的共識觀點的信念，即更廣泛的經濟，特別是在美國，但我認為在全球範圍內，預計將回升一點點。

And if you look at what's been weakest, it's been really the business transient side of the business as I said, when you clear out all the noise sort of growing it plus or minus 1%, we believe that if you have a little bit of an uptick in the broader economic environment, you have a little bit more certainty within -- particularly within the US with an election behind us, which we think has the potential to release some decision-making out of corporate America on investment and the like -- that you could as a consequence see a bit of an uptick in that part of the business, which is our largest segment and which has been performing at the lowest levels of all of our segments.

如果你看看最弱的部分，正如我所說，這實際上是業務瞬態的一面，當你清除所有使其增長正負 1% 的噪音時，我們相信，如果你有一點隨著更廣泛的經濟環境的好轉，你內部有更多的確定性——特別是在美國大選結束後，我們認為這有可能釋放美國企業界在投資等方面的一些決策—— - 因此，您可能會看到這部分業務有所成長，這是我們最大的細分市場，但一直處於我們所有細分市場中表現最低的水平。

In terms of the sightlines we talked about, I want to be cautious in the sense that it's early.

就我們談到的視線而言，我想保持謹慎，因為現在還為時過早。

We're not even done with this year, let alone into next, we're pre-election and what we're trying to do, as I said, is judge based off of what consensus estimates are.

我們今年還沒結束，更不用說明年了，我們正處於選舉前，正如我所說，我們要做的是根據共識估計進行判斷。

What sightlines we do have certainly support that, as I said we've gone through a very granular budget process, aggregating every property in the world, which gives us a decent sense of around the world, what our teams think and that forms the basis of this.

我們所擁有的視野肯定支持這一點，正如我所說，我們已經完成了非常精細的預算流程，匯總了世界上的每一處房產，這讓我們對世界各地、我們的團隊的想法以及構成基礎的了解有一個很好的了解這個的。

We look at where we are in our negotiations with all of our corporate customers, which I noted, which supports this up in the 3% to 4% range.

我注意到我們與所有企業客戶的談判進展情況，這支持了 3% 到 4% 的上漲。

And as we look at the group position going into next year, as I said, the first half of the year is quite strong.

正如我所說，當我們審視明年的集團地位時，今年上半年的表現相當強勁。

It's actually a little higher than -- I said mid-single digits -- it's really 6% or 7%, a little bit higher than pure mid-single digits.

它實際上略高於——我說的是中個位數——實際上是 6% 或 7%，比純粹的中個位數高一點。

And if you look at it for the full year, it's probably in the low single -- lower single digits, but there's a lot of time left to fill in, in the second half of the year, that would be typically what would happen.

如果你看一下全年情況，它可能處於較低的個位數——較低的個位數，但還有很多時間可以填補，在下半年，這通常會發生。

We'll go into the year, probably as we finish this year, with about 70% of our group bookings on the books, but we are obviously busily working towards increasing the group booking position in the final stages of this year.

我們將進入這一年，可能是在今年結束時，大約 70% 的團體預訂已完成，但我們顯然正忙於在今年最後階段增加團體預訂量。

So I think all of those things are generally positive indicators, but I would, again, bring you back to the core underpinning, which is a view on the broader economy and our view on the broader economy as being really informed by consensus views of folks that are studying this.

因此，我認為所有這些事情總體上都是積極的指標，但我會再次帶您回到核心基礎，這是對更廣泛的經濟的看法，以及我們對更廣泛的經濟的看法，這實際上是由人們的共識觀點決定的正在研究這個的。

I think, to the extent that those views end up being correct, I feel pretty darn good about being able to deliver in the range that we talked about.

我認為，就這些觀點最終是正確的而言，我對能夠在我們討論的範圍內實現目標感到非常高興。

If those consensus views are wrong, obviously, either on the high or the low, it would have an impact on our ability to deliver the 1% to 3%.

顯然，如果這些共識觀點錯誤，無論是高點或低點，都會影響我們實現 1% 到 3% 目標的能力。

Helpful.

有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Harry Curtis, Nomura.

哈里·柯蒂斯，野村證券。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Good morning.

早安.

I just had a quick follow-up on your answer there before I get to my question.

在回答我的問題之前，我只是對您的回答進行了快速跟進。

Chris, as you talk to other CEOs, what is their body language for kind of loosening up the travel purse strings and what do they need to see?

克里斯，當您與其他執行長交談時，他們的肢體語言是什麼，可以放鬆旅行錢包，他們需要看到什麼？

I would say, again, anecdotal, obviously.

我想再說一遍，顯然是軼事。

I talk to a lot of other CEOs.

我和很多其他執行長交談過。

I talk to a lot of our biggest customers.

我與許多我們最大的客戶交談過。

I would say that there is a view right now, particularly exacerbated by the US election cycle, that everybody's nervous.

我想說，現在有一種觀點，尤其是美國大選週期加劇了這種觀點，即每個人都感到緊張。

They don't know -- there's just a great deal of broad uncertainty.

他們不知道——存在大量廣泛的不確定性。

And when I talked to CEOs, I think, my sense from them is that not just loosening the purse strings a little bit on travel, but just broadly making decisions, whether that be more hiring, more investment in technology, plant, equipment, all of the things that make up nonresidential fixed investment, which still has the highest correlation to demand growth in our business that we can track, I think broadly as I talk to them, I think people when they have a little bit -- companies and CEOs -- when they have a little more certainty, I think, do want to start to make decisions again to start investing and hiring and traveling and doing all the things they need to do to drive the growth in their business.

當我與執行長交談時，我認為，他們給我的感覺是，不僅僅是在旅行方面稍微放鬆一點錢包，而是廣泛地做出決策，無論是增加招聘，還是增加對技術、工廠、設備的投資，等等。執行長——我認為，當他們有了更多的確定性時，他們確實想再次開始做出決定，開始投資、招募、旅行，並做所有他們需要做的事情來推動業務成長。

I think the -- this cycle of election -- I don't -- I mean, everybody's watching it as I am, I think it's been an unusual cycle and as a consequence I think it has slowed down the economy probably more dramatically than I've seen certainly in my adult life, just in the sense of creating such an aura of uncertainty that people are sort of waiting to make decisions until it's over.

我認為——這個選舉週期——我不——我的意思是，每個人都像我一樣關注它，我認為這是一個不尋常的週期，因此我認為它對經濟的放緩可能比在我在的成年生活中，我確實看到過這種情況，就創造了一種不確定的氛圍，人們在某種程度上等待著事情結束才做出決定。

Now, we don't know what's going to happen, but the one thing we do know is it'll be over on November 8 by the time we close out at midnight.

現在，我們不知道會發生什麼，但我們知道的一件事是，到 11 月 8 日午夜結束時，一切都會結束。

We're going to have certainty of who our next President is going to be, and I think just the fact of having that type of certainty is going to be beneficial.

我們將確定我們的下一任總統將是誰，我認為擁有這種確定性這一事實將會是有益的。

So, sort of a rambling answer but I think you are going to get a lot of things that are going to sort of get freed up a bit, which is I think one of the core underpinnings for why you might see broader economic growth pick up a bit.

所以，這是一個漫無目的的答案，但我認為你會得到很多東西，這些東西會得到一些釋放，我認為這是你可能會看到更廣泛的經濟成長回升的核心基礎之一一點點。

I don't think that means in my opinion or anything I'm reading from a consensus point of you says the economy is going to start roaring.

我認為，在我看來，或我從你們的共識中讀到的任何內容，這並不意味著經濟將開始強勁成長。

I don't think that's the view.

我不認為這是觀點。

I think it's just that things have been pretty locked up, and that they're going to start to unlock a little bit.

我認為這只是事情已經被鎖定了，而且他們將開始稍微解鎖。

So my real question, not that the other one was not real -- is --

所以我真正的問題不是另一個問題不真實，而是——

Your second question.

你的第二個問題。

But my real first question is, your relationship with HNA as you envision it over the next several years.

但我真正的第一個問題是，您對未來幾年與海航的關係有何設想。

What I'm trying to get a better understanding of is, how you expect joint ventures to proceed and impact in China on EBITDA growth as a result of this.

我試著更了解的是，您期望合資企業如何發展，以及由此對中國的 EBITDA 成長產生的影響。

Well, I think it's really early to start to translate it into impact on EBITDA growth, so I'm going to avoid answering that simply because I can't give you a rational answer yet because it's relatively early days.

嗯，我認為現在開始將其轉化為對 EBITDA 成長的影響還為時過早，所以我將避免回答這個問題，因為我還不能給你一個合理的答案，因為現在還處於相對早期的階段。

Having said that, we've spent, as you would imagine, a great deal of time with the leadership of HNA as a lead up to this transaction, and I think we believe and our Board believe that there were some serious compelling strategic reasons why this was beneficial to our Company.

話雖如此，正如您所想像的那樣，我們在海航集團的領導層上花費了大量時間來完成這項交易，我認為我們相信，而且我們的董事會也相信，有一些非常令人信服的戰略原因這對我們公司有利。

You can imagine some of those, and as time goes on will give you more details as we can, but they are big time in the travel and tourism business.

你可以想像其中的一些，隨著時間的推移，我們會盡可能為你提供更多細節，但它們是旅行和旅遊業的重要時期。

They are big tour operators.

他們是大型旅行社。

They have a big off-line travel agency business, they are the second biggest online travel agency business, one of the biggest airlines in China and the world.

他們擁有龐大的線下旅行社業務，是第二大線上旅行社業務，是中國和世界上最大的航空公司之一。

They are transporting through their aviation system, hundreds of millions of people a year, they have tens of millions of loyalty members.

他們透過自己的航空系統每年運送數億人次，他們擁有數千萬忠誠會員。

Now, obviously, incredibly well respected in China and now as a global Fortune 500 company around the world, so the idea is quite simple in a sense is that we have a big customer base.

現在，顯然，我們在中國受到了令人難以置信的尊重，現在又成為全球財富 500 強公司，所以從某種意義上說，我們的想法很簡單，那就是我們擁有龐大的客戶群。

They have a big customer base.

他們擁有龐大的客戶群。

China is both of the fastest-growing lodging market in the world, it's also the largest outbound market in the world and one of the fastest-growing outbound markets in the world.

中國既是全球成長最快的住宿市場，也是全球最大的出境市場，也是全球成長最快的出境市場之一。

While obviously there is some overlap in our current businesses, there's not much overlap between our core customer base and theirs, thus a tremendous opportunity to be able to connect those customer bases in ways that I think is going to help feed our system throughout the world and particularly in China, but it's also going to help feed their system.

雖然我們目前的業務顯然存在一些重疊，但我們的核心客戶群和他們的核心客戶群之間並沒有太多重疊，因此這是一個巨大的機會，能夠以我認為將有助於為我們的全球系統提供服務的方式連結這些客戶群。

So I think there's a mutually beneficial ways to look at this.

所以我認為有一種互利的方式來看待這個問題。

We are having those discussions sort of putting, as I would say, the meat on the bones of exactly how that's going to work.

正如我所說，我們正在進行這些討論，以明確具體如何運作。

But you can imagine taking our hundreds of millions of folks and their hundreds of millions of folks where there's not a lot of overlap and connecting the dots can be incredibly powerful.

但你可以想像，將我們的數億人和他們的數億人帶到沒有太多重疊的地方，將這些點連接起來會非常強大。

And in terms of the development growth in China, they have a tremendous network of financial services investments and relationships in that market that we think are going to be hugely beneficial to us and our growth over time.

就中國的發展成長而言，他們在該市場擁有龐大的金融服務投資網絡和關係，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這將對我們和我們的成長帶來巨大好處。

Recognizing that all of our growth in terms of our new unit growth is really dependent upon third-party capital in China and everywhere else, and the more access we have and relationships that we can build in all parts of the world but particularly the fastest-growing market in the world in China, we think it can be a tremendously beneficial to us over time.

認識到我們在新單位成長方面的所有成長實際上都依賴中國和其他地方的第三方資本，並且我們在世界各地（尤其是最快的地區）擁有更多的機會和關係。不斷成長的市場，我們認為隨著時間的推移，這會為我們帶來巨大的好處。

So we are very excited about that HNA deal in every way.

因此，我們對海航的交易在各個方面都感到非常興奮。

Obviously it helps with our overhang issue, and we think we were quite thoughtful about how we protected all of our existing shareholders against all the things that you would want us to protect against.

顯然，這有助於解決我們懸而未決的問題，而且我們認為，我們對於如何保護所有現有股東免受您希望我們保護的所有事情的影響非常周到。

But at the same time manage to take down the overhang of Blackstone, which we certainly hear a lot about in the marketplace.

但同時，我們也設法消除了黑石集團的懸而未決的問題，我們在市場上肯定聽到很多這樣的說法。

The strategic elements of this over time I think are going to be even more powerful because while the overhang is important obviously, that would eventually fix itself.

我認為隨著時間的推移，這個戰略要素將變得更加強大，因為雖然懸而未決的問題顯然很重要，但最終會自行解決。

I think this is quite an elegant way to help fix a lot of it but long-term, I think the relationship, the fact that they're going to have a $6.5 billion investment in us, and our success, and given their relationships globally and in China, I think is going to be incredibly powerful for us.

我認為這是一種非常優雅的方式，可以幫助解決很多問題，但從長遠來看，我認為我們的關係，他們將向我們投資65 億美元的事實，以及我們的成功，並考慮到他們在全球的關係在中國，我認為這對我們來說將會非常強大。

So we'll -- I can't translate that to EBITDA growth rate yet.

所以我們——我還不能將其轉化為 EBITDA 成長率。

Okay?

好的？

Give us a little bit of time and as we pull together the elements of this partnership, you're obviously going to hear a lot more about it because it we're obviously going to want you to.

給我們一點時間，當我們將這種合作夥伴關係的要素整合在一起時，您顯然會聽到更多有關它的信息，因為我們顯然希望您這樣做。

Joseph Greff, JPMorgan.

約瑟夫‧格雷夫，摩根大通。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Good morning, Jeff.

早安，傑夫。

Can you guys talk about how you're thinking about the composition of 2017 net unit growth and how that compares to what you've done so far in 2016?

你們能否談談你們如何看待 2017 年淨單位成長的組成以及與 2016 年迄今所做的相比如何？

And then, with the gross additions to the pipeline, are you anticipating that those take longer to open just given the economic backdrop we are living in right now?

然後，隨著管道的總增加，考慮到我們現在所處的經濟背景，您是否預計這些管道需要更長的時間才能開放？

Yes.

是的。

I would say composition-wise, very similar, 2017 very similar to 2016.

我想說的是，從成分來看，2017 年與 2016 年非常相似。

It will be higher but if you look at the proportions of it, where it's going to be and what segments it's going to be in, I'd say it is similar.

它會更高，但如果你看看它的比例、它的位置以及它所處的部分，我會說它是相似的。

In terms of the pipeline, in terms of whether the pipeline is what we're signing is getting extended out, hard to say.

就管道而言，就管道是否是我們正在簽署的管道而言，很難說。

I mean, my instinct, Joe, is if you look at what we're signing this year, by the time the year's out, not an insignificant component of that is going to be Tru.

我的意思是，喬，我的直覺是，如果你看看我們今年簽署的協議，到今年結束時，其中一個重要的組成部分將是 Tru。

We're going to end up probably by the time the year is out signing 20,000 to 25,000 rooms for Tru?

到今年年底，我們可能會為 Tru 簽署 20,000 至 25,000 個房間？

I mean, just given what's in production, and those are much more readily financeable given the dollar amounts we're talking about, and people seem to be very able to get access to financing levels to get this done.

我的意思是，考慮到正在生產的產品，考慮到我們正在談論的美元金額，這些產品更容易融資，而且人們似乎非常能夠獲得融資水平來完成這項工作。

They are also a shorter gestation a period given their smaller properties and they take less time to build.

由於其較小的特性，它們的孕育期也較短，建造時間也較短。

So I would say I'm not seeing any, incrementally over the last quarter or two I'm not seeing anything that says -- that if I were to try and the semi-scientifically in my head, as I'm thinking about it, take what we're adding to the pipeline and what's being delivered -- are we extending it?

所以我想說，我沒有看到任何東西，在過去一兩個季度裡，我沒有看到任何東西表明——如果我嘗試在我的頭腦中進行半科學的思考，就像我正在思考的那樣，以我們添加到管道中的內容以及正在交付的內容為例——我們是否正在擴展它？

I would say ultimately it's pretty comparable.

我想說最終它是相當可比的。

It's offsetting given that Tru is a shorter gestation period and smaller pieces.

鑑於 Tru 的妊娠期較短且碎片較小，因此可以抵消此影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Carlo Santarelli, Deutsche Bank.

卡洛桑塔雷利，德意志銀行。

Hey, everybody.

嘿，大家。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Two-part question, both focused on, Chris, some of your comments from earlier.

由兩部分組成的問題，都集中在克里斯，您之前的一些評論。

You mentioned the group pace for next year, I thought you said kind of first-half 2017 group pace.

你提到了明年的小組節奏，我以為你說的是2017年上半年的小組節奏。

Do you have any early indications on second half?

您對下半年有什麼初步跡象嗎？

And then also, as it pertains to the corporate negotiated rates trending up 3% to 4%, are there any types of guarantees in terms of volume or anything that are being kind of -- that have changed materially I would say in those corporate rate negotiations?

然後，由於涉及到上漲3% 至4% 的企業協議利率，在數量或任何正在發生的事情方面是否有任何類型的保證——我想說的是，在這些企業利率中，這些擔保已經發生了重大變化談判？

All right.

好的。

So yes.

所以是的。

On the group side I think I gave the number I intended to.

在團體方面，我認為我給了我想要的數字。

For the first half of the year it's up, call it 5% to 7%.

今年上半年成長了 5% 到 7%。

For the full year it's up probably 2% to 3%, something like that, so that obviously implies the second half of the year is lighter.

全年可能會上漲 2% 到 3% 之類的，所以這顯然意味著下半年會比較清淡。

Part of that's just sort of the convention cycle, part of that is second half of the year is a long way away.

部分原因只是大會週期，部分原因是下半年還有很長的路要走。

So -- but that's the full-year look on it.

所以——但這就是全年的情況。

On the volume question, on transient, the short answer is no, we don't really have a lot of guarantees of volume.

關於成交量問題，就瞬態而言，簡短的答案是否定的，我們實際上並沒有太多的成交量保證。

There are incentives built in to pricing so that, they are not guarantees as much as, you get a better price if your volume is higher or you get a worse price if it's lower.

定價中有內建的激勵措施，因此，它們並不能保證，如果銷量較高，您會得到更好的價格，如果銷量較低，您會得到更差的價格。

But it's not -- it doesn't -- the set up is not in the form of a guarantee.

但事實並非如此，這種設定並不是以保證的形式出現的。

Anecdotally, again, it goes back to the question, I think, Harry asked, about what are you hearing from CEOs?

有趣的是，我想，這又回到了這個問題，哈利問道，你從執行長那裡聽到了什麼？

What are you hearing from customers, CEOs of companies that are good customers of ours?

您從客戶、我們的好客戶公司的執行長那裡聽到了什麼？

I'm not hearing anybody really say that, hey, we're going to be cutting back on a lot of volume.

我沒有聽到有人真正說過，嘿，我們將大幅削減音量。

I mean, they're obviously pushing back on our trying to push rates up.

我的意思是，他們顯然正在抵制我們提高利率的努力。

That's why we're at 3% to 4%, but they know occupancy levels are high so they are accepting of that.

這就是為什麼我們的比率是 3% 到 4%，但他們知道入住率很高，所以他們接受這一點。

I think if I had to summarize my discussions anecdotally I'd say it feels like flat -- it feels like sort of flat volume.

我想，如果我必須以軼事方式總結我的討論，我會說它感覺很平淡——感覺就像平淡的體積。

I think if the economy gets worse, I think it'll drive volumes lower but I think as the economy gets a little bit better it will keep it flat or maybe you'll see a little bit more.

我認為如果經濟變得更糟，我認為這會導致銷量下降，但我認為隨著經濟好一點，它會保持平穩，或者也許你會看到更多。

The highest correlation to demand in the hotel business is nonresidential fixed investment.

與飯店業務需求相關性最高的是非住宅固定投資。

I've been studying this for 15 years, and it's ebbed and flowed in terms of what the R-squared is, but it's always been very high.

我已經研究這個問題 15 年了，就 R 平方而言，它有起有落，但它總是很高。

If you look at what's been happening this year, as we've seen business transient growth levels really drop precipitously.

如果你看看今年發生的事情，我們會發現業務短暫成長水平確實急劇下降。

I mean, we were in the 6% to 8% range.

我的意思是，我們的比例在 6% 到 8% 之間。

Now we're in the 1% range, and you look at what's happened with nonresidential fixed investment.

現在我們處於 1% 的範圍內，您可以看看非住宅固定投資發生了什麼。

Nonresidential fixed investment is going backwards, it's negative growth this year.

非住宅固定投資出現倒退，今年負成長。

I think everybody's broader expectations are that's going to increase next year.

我認為每個人的更廣泛的期望明年都會增加。

If nonresidential fixed investment increases next year, I think you will see flat or increasing volumes in business transient.

如果明年非住宅固定投資增加，我認為您會看到短暫的業務量持平或增加。

So I think we should all watch that in the broader economy carefully because we're going to track, generally on the topline we're going to track in line with that business transient, very much so.

因此，我認為我們都應該在更廣泛的經濟中仔細觀察，因為我們將跟踪，一般來說，我們將根據業務瞬態來跟踪營收，非常如此。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, and then Kevin you might have said this in your remarks and I apologize if I missed it, but I assume some of the timeshare margin softness was related to timing, but is there anything else you can kind of add to the decline year over year in segment margin?

謝謝你，然後凱文，你可能在你的講話中說了這一點，如果我錯過了，我深表歉意，但我認為分時度假利潤率的疲軟與時間安排有關，但是你還有什麼可以在下降的年份中增加的嗎？

No, you've got it Carlo.

不，你已經明白了，卡洛。

We left the overall guidance range the same for timeshare, there's about $5 million or $6 million of timing items that are related to -- or $5 million or $6 million that are related to exactly what you say, which is timing items, so nothing really going on there.

我們對分時度假的整體指導範圍保持不變，大約有500 萬或600 萬美元的計時項目與您所說的計時項目相關，或者500 萬或600 萬美元與您所說的計時項目相關，所以實際上沒有什麼在那裡進行。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Stephen Grambling, Goldman Sachs.

史蒂芬‧格蘭布林，高盛。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning and thanks for taking the questions.

早上好，感謝您提出問題。

Can you just remind us of what your capital allocation priorities will be post the spin as you balance some of the added financial flexibility from the recent transactions with the softening macro?

您能否提醒我們，在平衡近期交易帶來的一些額外財務靈活性與宏觀疲軟之間的平衡時，旋轉後您的資本配置優先事項將是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I think from a capital allocation point of view we are exactly where we've been.

我認為從資本配置的角度來看，我們正是如此。

We want to get the balance sheet to a credit profile that is low-grade investment-grade.

我們希望資產負債表達到低投資等級的信用狀況。

We think that's in the low 3s.

我們認為這個數字在 3 分以下。

We're sort of there now.

我們現在就在那裡。

We leveraged up a teeny amount related to all the spins and the costs and the incremental G&A that's associated with the spins, but we very quickly get it back down.

我們利用了與所有旋轉、成本以及與旋轉相關的增量一般管理費用（G&A）相關的少量資金，但我們很快就將其收回。

We're going to continue to pay a modest a dividend.

我們將繼續支付適度的股息。

We're not really thinking of doing anything material to the dividend, and then using the incremental cash flow to buy back stock.

我們並沒有真正考慮做任何對股利有實質影響的事情，然後利用增量現金流回購股票。

The likelihood is, we'll be discussing with our Board that early next year, we will be able to be in a position to begin a buyback program.

很可能，我們將在明年初與董事會討論，我們將能夠開始回購計畫。

That's pretty much what we've been saying, nothing's really changed in that regard.

這幾乎就是我們一直在說的，在這方面沒有任何真正的改變。

Great.

偉大的。

And then you mentioned earlier about the potential for renegotiating your corporate credit card program.

然後您之前提到了重新談判公司信用卡計劃的可能性。

Can you just talk about the various financial impacts from that?

您能談談由此產生的各種財務影響嗎？

Or how that could impact the business?

或者這會對業務產生什麼影響？

And maybe sizing, what it would look like right now?

也許是尺寸，現在會是什麼樣子？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I would love to but I can't right now.

我很願意，但現在不能。

We're literally in the middle of a bidding process amongst a number of bidders, and I would prefer to get to the end of that process and not debate it or negotiate it publicly.

事實上，我們正​​處於眾多投標人之間的投標過程中，我寧願結束該過程，而不是公開辯論或談判。

So give us a little bit more time.

所以請給我們多一點時間。

We're not -- we're getting close to the final stages of that.

我們不是——我們正在接近最後階段。

And when we have that done, we'll obviously be happy to talk about it and give you a sense of where it ends up.

當我們完成這件事後，我們顯然會很樂意談論它並讓您了解它的最終結果。

We have a lot -- we have very healthy competition and we think we're going to get a very positive outcome for the Company.

我們有很多——我們有非常健康的競爭，我們認為我們將為公司帶來非常積極的成果。

I'd rather leave it at that until we're done.

我寧願就此擱置，直到我們完成為止。

Fair enough.

很公平。

So if I can maybe sneak one other quick one in, just on the direct booking efforts, can you just update us on what the net impact has been as the penetration has grown?

因此，如果我可以快速地介紹直接預訂方面的另一項進展，您能否向我們介紹一下隨著滲透率增長而產生的淨影響？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Our direct booking efforts, you can see from some of the stats we gave in the prepared comments, is working well.

從我們在準備好的評論中提供的一些統計數據可以看出，我們的直接預訂工作進展順利。

The whole objective here has been, where we can have a direct relationship with a customer we want to, because we think in the end customers get the best value and will have the best experience.

這裡的整體目標是，我們可以與我們想要的客戶建立直接關係，因為我們認為最終客戶會獲得最佳價值並獲得最佳體驗。

We want them to know that, and to the extent that they get the best experience and we can do it through our lowest-cost distribution channels, it's better for us, it's better for customers, and it's better for owners.

我們希望他們知道，只要他們獲得最好的體驗，而我們可以透過成本最低的分銷管道做到這一點，這對我們、對客戶、對業主都更好。

Which is who -- we're here to serve all constituencies, and you can see from the stats that it's working really well.

誰是誰——我們在這裡為所有選民服務，你可以從統計數據中看到它運作得非常好。

We've had over 200 basis points of channel shift to our direct channels.

我們已經有超過 200 個基點的管道轉向我們的直接管道。

We've had huge increases in our Honors enrollment, up 60% year to date, and when you look at our net rate structures, everything that we see across all of our rate structures suggests that our owners and we are benefiting from it.

我們的榮譽學位入學人數大幅增加，今年迄今為止增長了60%，當您查看我們的淨費率結構時，我們在所有費率結構中看到的一切都表明我們的所有者和我們正在從中受益。

Having said that, it's really important to know that we still have a healthy relationship with the OTAs, we're still doing a lot of work with them.

話雖如此，重要的是要知道我們與 OTA 仍然保持著健康的關係，我們仍在與他們進行大量工作。

There are still customers that for whatever reasons don't want to have a direct relationship with us, and that we still want to have stay with us and that we can access through intermediaries including the OTAs.

仍然有一些客戶出於某種原因不想與我們建立直接關係，而我們仍然希望留在我們身邊，我們可以透過包括 OTA 在內的中介機構接觸到他們。

And for those customers that understand this set up and still do not want to have a direct relationship, we obviously want to serve them as well.

對於那些了解這種設定但仍然不想建立直接關係的客戶，我們顯然也想為他們提供服務。

So we've had a relationship over the long term with the OTAs, we will continue to have that relationship where they have unique access to a customer we may not be able to have access to.

因此，我們與 OTA 建立了長期關係，我們將繼續保持這種關係，讓他們擁有與我們可能無法接觸到的客戶的獨特訪問權限。

The combination of those things I think can be quite powerful for us, but we think customers are increasingly understanding the benefits of a book direct relationship, as is depicted with the channel shift we have.

我認為這些因素的結合對我們來說非常強大，但我們認為客戶越來越了解圖書直接關係的好處，正如我們的管道轉變所描述的那樣。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Shaun Kelley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

肖恩凱利，美銀美林。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Maybe a little bit more granular of a question but, Kevin, in the guidance, I think the fourth quarter is looking for 2% to 4% management and franchise fee growth, and if we think about sort of your algorithm with 6% to 7% net unit growth and still positive RevPAR, even if modest, it seems like a little bit of a wider spread in the fourth quarter.

也許是一個更具體的問題，但凱文，在指導中，我認為第四季度的管理費和特許經營費將增長2% 到4%，如果我們考慮一下你的演算法，增長率為6% 到7% %淨單位成長率和仍為正的RevPAR，即使幅度不大，第四季的差距似乎有點擴大。

So is there anything one-time in that or anything that might be driving that spread?

那麼，其中是否存在一次性的因素或可能推動這種傳播的因素？

And then my follow-up will go ahead and be, how do you think about that spread next year when we have to think about FX and mix from new openings?

然後我的後續行動將是，當我們必須考慮外匯和新開盤的組合時，您如何看待明年的利差？

Yes.

是的。

So the first part, Sean, is easy, we did a couple of a pretty significant one-time items, primarily termination fees that affected the growth rate this year.

因此，肖恩，第一部分很簡單，我們做了一些非常重要的一次性項目，主要是影響今年成長率的終止費用。

So the algorithm, if you will, is pretty much intact when you look at the full year.

因此，如果您願意的話，當您查看全年時，演算法幾乎完好無損。

I think we think about the algorithm going forward in the fee segment as being just about the same as you described, if you look at sort of same-store sales growth plus net unit growth that ought to be the algorithm in the fee section other than, as you mentioned FX, it's hard to predict.

我認為我們認為費用部分的演算法與您所描述的幾乎相同，如果您查看同店銷售增長加上淨單位增長，那麼這應該是費用部分中的演算法，而不是，正如您提到的外匯，很難預測。

We don't bake FX into our algorithms, it's really hard to.

我們不會將外匯納入我們的演算法中，這真的很難。

So I don't know if you want to add anything to that Chris.

所以我不知道你是否想為克里斯添加任何內容。

No.

不。

On December 8 when we get together and lay out all three companies separately, we'll lay out in great detail sort of the -- how we view the algorithm going forward for Hilton Worldwide, for main Co.

12 月 8 日，當我們聚在一起並分別列出所有三家公司時，我們將詳細介紹我們如何看待希爾頓全球酒店集團、主要公司的演算法未來發展。

Fantastic, we'll look forward to that.

太棒了，我們將拭​​目以待。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Felicia Hendrix, Barclays.

費利西亞·亨德里克斯，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Chris, I want to go back to the HNA announcement because we've gotten a lot of questions from investors regarding the transaction, so I just wanted to touch on a few of them.

克里斯，我想回到海航的公告，因為我們收到了投資者關於這筆交易的許多問題，所以我只想談談其中的一些問題。

The first is just regarding the incremental sale of the 54 million shares of stock by Blackstone following the sale HNA prior to the REIT election.

第一個是關於黑石在 REIT 選舉之前出售海航後增量出售 5400 萬股股票的情況。

So we've gotten a lot of questions about how the math works, and the ownership restrictions under the REIT tax laws, so maybe you can walk us through that, I think it would be helpful.

因此，我們收到了很多關於數學原理以及房地產投資信託稅法下的所有權限制的問題，所以也許您可以向我們介紹一下，我認為這會有所幫助。

I'd be happy to but we don't -- time does not allow for it.

我很樂意這樣做，但我們沒有——時間不允許。

Kidding aside, the rules that we're dealing with within the IRS code are called the EIK rules.

開玩笑吧，我們在 IRS 程式碼中處理的規則稱為 EIK 規則。

They are incredibly complex, and very difficult to come up with an easy equation for you of, they own X, they're selling Y, because it has a lot to do with how Blackstone owns the shares in the Company in the various funds that they have.

它們非常複雜，很難為你想出一個簡單的等式，他們擁有 X，他們出售 Y，因為這與黑石如何在各種基金中擁有公司股份有很大關係。

Very complex attribution rules, and even attribution on a go-forward basis has between large shareholders like HNA and Blackstone, even though they are unrelated in the attribution rules, they become related to a certain degree.

海航、黑石等大股東之間的歸屬規則非常複雜，甚至是未來歸屬，雖然在歸屬規則上沒有關聯，但也存在一定程度的關聯。

I'm not trying to be evasive.

我並不是想迴避。

The truth is there a lot of really smart people on our tax, and with outside advisors that have figured out how all this works, because ultimately we have to get an opinion that says that we meet the REIT qualification rules.

事實上，我們的稅務方面有很多非常聰明的人，並且有外部顧問已經弄清楚了這一切是如何運作的，因為最終我們必須得到一個意見，表明我們符合房地產投資信託基金的資格規則。

As we've done all of that work, again, not a simple equation because of the complexities of the attribution rules, it became apparent to us in doing the work that in order to qualify we needed to have Blackstone sell down 5.5%, and that's why we've disclosed it.

由於我們已經完成了所有這些工作，因此，由於歸因規則的複雜性，這不是一個簡單的等式，在進行這項工作時，我們很明顯地意識到，為了獲得資格，我們需要讓Blackstone 降價5.5%，並且這就是我們披露它的原因。

Obviously, they have until -- we can do the spins without that selldown, because this problem only arises as a consequence of the HNA deal, so really they have to have done this by the time the HNA deal closes, so we could do the spins and there was no EIK issue under the set up pre-HNA.

顯然，他們必須直到——我們可以在沒有拋售的情況下進行旋轉，因為這個問題只會因海航交易而出現，所以實際上他們必須在海航交易結束時完成此操作，所以我們可以這樣做旋轉，且在海航之前設立的情況下不存在EIK 問題。

Now that the HNA deal is getting done, prior to that closing, in order to meet the REIT qualification test they would have to sell down the 5.5%.

現在海航的交易已經完成，在交易完成之前，為了滿足房地產投資信託基金的資格測試，他們必須出售 5.5% 的股份。

So I know you want me to sit and give you a very simple equation.

所以我知道你希望我坐下來給你一個非常簡單的方程式。

It's just not that simple, but we are 100% confident that the work that has been done is right, and that if they sell down 5.5% prior to HNA closing, we will meet all the REIT qualification rules up front and be able to continue to meet those rules.

事情沒那麼簡單，但我們 100% 相信已經完成的工作是正確的，如果他們在海航交割前減持 5.5%，我們將預先滿足所有 REIT 資格規則，並能夠繼續以滿足這些規則。

Okay.

好的。

So just to paraphrase, you need to be below 35% and you can't just take the 25% HNA plus the then 15%-ish --

簡單來說，你的股權比例需要低於 35%，而且你不能只拿 25% 的海航股權加上當時的 15% 左右——

No -- it would take literally 50 pages of analysis to do this and I don't have it in my head.

不——這實際上需要 50 頁的分析才能做到這一點，而我腦子裡沒有。

It is much more complex than that, and there's no way anybody -- I'm not being -- there's no way anybody can do it, because you'd have to know the intricacies of how Blackstone holds all this and how HNA is going to hold all this.

事情比這複雜得多，任何人都做不到——我不是——任何人都做不到，因為你必須知道黑石如何掌控這一切以及海航的發展方式的複雜性。

Because the attribution rules are not entirely logical.

因為歸因規則並不完全符合邏輯。

It is not a simple equation and, again, I'm not trying to be evasive.

這不是一個簡單的方程式，我也不想迴避。

It is not that simple.

事情沒那麼簡單。

The thing I think that's important for investors to know is that this fixes it.

我認為對於投資者來說重要的是要知道這可以解決問題。

Okay?

好的？

And that the timing of it is such that it needs to be done before the closing of HNA buying 25% of the company, and there will be no issue.

而且時機是這樣的，需要在海航收購該公司25%股份的交易完成之前完成，不會有任何問題。

It will be solved permanently.

它將永久解決。

Okay.

好的。

But the 5.5%, the 54 million shares, that's all they need to sell.

但 5.5%，即 5,400 萬股，這就是他們需要出售的全部。

That's it.

就是這樣。

That's all they need to sell.

這就是他們需要出售的全部。

Now, Blackstone can sell whatever -- it's their choice whether they want to sell more, but the contractual commitment that we have with them is that they will do this, so that we make sure that Park qualifies as a REIT.

現在，黑石可以出售任何東西 - 他們可以選擇是否要出售更多，但我們與他們的合約承諾是他們會這樣做，以便我們確保 Park 符合房地產投資信託基金的資格。

And then, this gets to my next question.

然後，這就是我的下一個問題。

So I was just wondering if you can address any risks to the HNA transaction, particularly on the regulatory side, and what steps need to be taken for it to get approved.

所以我只是想知道您是否可以解決海航交易的任何風險，特別是在監管方面，以及需要採取哪些步驟才能獲得批准。

No.

不。

I mean, there is not much to say about that.

我的意思是，對此沒有太多可說的。

Obviously we just announced the deal.

顯然我們剛剛宣布了這筆交易。

We do not think that they are big regulatory challenges to get over.

我們認為它們並不是需要克服的重大監管挑戰。

And so I do not personally think that there's a great deal of risk from a regulatory point of view.

因此，我個人認為，從監管的角度來看，這並不存在很大的風險。

But we'll go through -- time will tell, we will go through the process.

但我們會經歷──時間會證明一切，我們會經歷這個過程。

Okay.

好的。

And then you addressed this -- this is my final question -- talking about the relationship with HNA and all the kind of the synergistic relationship that you can have.

然後你談到了這個問題——這是我的最後一個問題——談論了與海航的關係以及你可以擁有的所有類型的協同關係。

But we do -- we get questions about the two Board seats that are going to HNA, and if you foresee any concerns or if you have any concerns about conflict of interest there?

但我們確實收到了有關海航的兩個董事會席位的問題，您是否預見到任何擔憂或是否對那裡的利益衝突有任何擔憂？

No, I don't.

不，我不。

I think if you -- we attached the shareholder agreement and filed it so that if you want to, or any investor wants to, you can read -- I think we filed 180 pages of supporting documentation, so everything is 100% transparent.

我想如果你——我們附上了股東協議並提交了它，這樣如果你願意，或者任何投資者願意的話，你可以閱讀——我想我們提交了180 頁的支持文件，所以一切都是100 % 透明的。

I think if you looked at how we dealt with -- how they come on the Board with one HNA affiliated member, one unaffiliated independent member.

我想如果你看看我們如何處理——他們如何與一名海航附屬成員和一名無附屬獨立成員一起進入董事會。

Both Board members that have to go through a vetting process with our nominating committee where we are able to say yes or no, and how those Board members can interact or participate on issues that might be in conflict with HNA's investment.

兩位董事會成員都必須經過提名委員會的審查程序，我們可以說是或否，以及這些董事會成員如何互動或參與可能與海航投資衝突的問題。

Or, in the event that there is other M&A activity that we're interested in pursuing, if you look at it very carefully, we were very thoughtful about making sure that where there might be potential for conflict, we limited their voting rights.

或者，如果我們有興趣進行其他併購活動，如果您仔細觀察，我們會非常仔細地確保在可能存在潛在衝突的地方，我們限制他們的投票權。

We limited what they can participate on in Board discussions and on the Board.

我們限制了他們可以參與董事會討論和董事會的內容。

We also limited their voting rights, ultimately, on certain transactions and events to make sure that we dealt with those conflicts.

最終，我們也限制了他們對某些交易和事件的投票權，以確保我們處理這些衝突。

We spent months, literally, of time, on these issues.

事實上，我們在這些問題上花了幾個月的時間。

We had a special committee of our Board that went through an incredibly rigorous process with outside advisors, both on the banking, legal side, management was very actively engaged with them, in giving our advice.

我們的董事會有一個特別委員會，該委員會與銀行、法律方面的外部顧問一起經歷了極其嚴格的流程，管理層非常積極地與他們合作，為我們提供建議。

The reason it took a couple months is because we wanted to make sure we were protecting the base of other shareholders in the Company against any potential conflict so again, you can read it in detail.

花了幾個月的時間是因為我們想確保我們保護公司其他股東的基礎免受任何潛在的衝突，所以再次，您可以詳細閱讀它。

I feel incredibly comfortable that we have protected against any eventuality and that we're going to be able to run the Company the way we need to run the Company, that they're going to be engaged with us in a very constructive way, and that anywhere there is a potential for conflict, vis-a-vis existing shareholders, we protected the existing shareholders including ourselves against any of those concerns.

我感到非常放心，我們已經防範了任何意外情況，我們將能夠按照我們需要的方式來運營公司，他們將以非常有建設性的方式與我們合作，並且在任何可能與現有股東發生衝突的地方，我們都會保護包括我們自己在內的現有股東免受任何這些擔憂的影響。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Patrick Scholes, SunTrust.

帕特里克·斯科爾斯，SunTrust。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Just a real quick question here and I'm sorry if I might have missed this earlier when you gave your group expectations for next year, can you break down how that's composed of occupancy versus rate?

這裡只是一個簡單的問題，如果我早些時候在你們給出集團明年的期望時可能錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，您能詳細說明一下入住率與入住率之間的關係嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

It is, I would say largely rate.

我想說的是，很大程度上是這樣。

It's a little bit of volume.

體積有點大。

But I'd say best I can remember it's like 80/20, 80% rate, 20% volume but there is a little bit more volume.

但我想說的是，我能記得的最好的就是 80/20，80% 的比率，20% 的成交量，但成交量稍微多一點。

Bill Crow, Raymond James.

比爾·克勞，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

Can I get a clarification, first.

我可以先澄清一下嗎？

You talked about the Tru brand and its contribution to the pipeline.

您談到了 Tru 品牌及其對產品線的貢獻。

How many franchised units are actually under construction today, or by the end of this year do you anticipate?

目前或您預計今年底實際在建的特許經營單位有多少？

I think by the end of this year, probably a dozen, something like that.

我想到今年年底，可能會有十幾個，類似的東西。

I can get a -- maybe a little bit higher.

我可以獲得——也許更高一點。

But I'd say 10 to 20.

但我會說10到20。

I assume that's in line with your expectations you had.

我認為這符合您的期望。

Yes.

是的。

Everything, given we just launched in February, yes.

一切，考慮到我們剛剛在二月推出，是的。

Everything, some deal signings, pipeline, under construction, are all ahead of our expectations.

一切，一些交易簽署、管道建設、正在建設中，都超出了我們的預期。

All right.

好的。

If you don't mind, I want to ask a big picture question on timeshare for those of us that don't spend as much time looking at that industry.

如果您不介意的話，我想向我們這些不花太多時間研究該行業的人提出一個有關分時度假的大問題。

Chris, who's the next buyer of timeshare?

克里斯，誰是下一個分時度假買家？

I mean it doesn't seem to me like millennials are -- have the loyalty or maybe the interest of doing it.

我的意思是，在我看來，千禧世代並不具有這樣做的忠誠或興趣。

The baby boomers are getting towards 70 years old, they are not necessarily -- so who is the next generation of buyers?

嬰兒潮世代已經快到 70 歲了，但他們不一定——那麼誰是下一代買家呢？

You know what, Bill?

你知道嗎，比爾？

It's a great question.

這是一個很好的問題。

I think we're all the next generation of buyers, right?

我認為我們都是下一代買家，對嗎？

So if you look at the breakdown in where timeshare, where we are selling timeshare, it's a pretty diverse set -- a pretty diverse demographic, and you got to remember that what timeshare is selling is a vacation.

因此，如果你看一下分時度假的細分，我們在哪裡銷售分時度假，你會發現這是一個相當多樣化的群體——一個相當多樣化的人口統計，你必須記住，分時度假銷售的是假期。

It's not -- this is not a second home or a third home market.

這不是——這不是第二故鄉或第三故鄉市場。

This is simply selling -- if you're going to go on vacation once a year, you can do it and save a lot of money and have a lot more space and take your whole family and you can trade it for wherever you want to be or you can trade it for hotel rooms.

這就是簡單的銷售——如果你打算每年去度假一次，你可以這樣做，節省很多錢，還有更多的空間，可以帶上你的全家人，你可以把它換成任何你想去的地方或你可以用它換飯店房間。

It's an incredibly flexible vacation alternative.

這是一個非常靈活的假期選擇。

I think when you -- if you went through the sales pitch, what you'd find is that's what's compelling.

我認為，當你進行銷售宣傳時，你會發現這才是引人注目的。

People look at it, and those people who have one or two in many cases, three or four units, are basically saying, yes, I'm going to take one or two or three weeks of vacation, and this is a very cost efficient way for me to take vacation, be able to take my family or friends, have a kitchen, have a washer, dryer and have all these things.

人們看著它，那些在很多情況下擁有一兩個、三四個單位的人基本上都會說，是的，我要休一兩週或三週的假期，這是非常划算的。度假的方式，能夠帶我的家人或朋友，有一個廚房，有洗衣機，烘乾機和所有這些東西。

You've got to sort of break -- and I know you know this -- I think you have to break from -- the people that don't understand the business very well I think of it more as, this is sort of in lieu of a second home or whatever, and it is just not that.

你必須擺脫 - 我知道你知道這一點 - 我認為你必須擺脫 - 那些不太了解業務的人，我更多地認為，這有點像代替第二個家或其他什麼，但事實並非如此。

So I think it's appealing to anybody that is looking to go on a vacation, and is looking for a value proposition and I think that transcends age, honestly.

所以我認為它對任何想要去度假、正在尋找價值主張的人都很有吸引力，老實說，我認為這超越了年齡。

All right.

好的。

Maybe we'll get more into it at your meeting up in December.

也許我們會在 12 月的會議上進一步討論這個問題。

Yes.

是的。

We'll have our whole timeshare team there with us as well.

我們的整個分時度假團隊也會和我們在一起。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thomas Allen, Morgan Stanley.

湯瑪斯艾倫，摩根士丹利。

Good morning.

早安.

So it's been about a month since Marriott closed on the Starwood deal, now that you've gotten some kind of real-time data, any updated thoughts on the potential impact to your business?

萬豪完成與喜達屋的交易已經過去了大約一個月，現在您已經獲得了某種即時數據，對於這對您的業務的潛在影響有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

No.

不。

I'm not going to -- I mean, the way I think about it is we are very confident in the strategy that we're pursuing and that we've articulated which is, we're very focused on having purebred brands that are leaders in their individual segments, that have clearly defined swim lanes, that have premium market share, and as a consequence, help us drive industry-leading organic unit growth.

我不會——我的意思是，我的想法是，我們對我們正在追求的策略非常有信心，我們已經闡明了這一點，即我們非常專注於擁有純種品牌，各自細分市場的領導者，擁有明確的泳道，擁有優質的市場份額，因此有助於我們推動行業領先的有機單位成長。

That's our strategy.

這就是我們的策略。

Others have taken different paths.

其他人則採取了不同的道路。

I'm not going to get into -- obviously we've chosen our strategy because we think it's the best strategy.

我不打算討論——顯然我們選擇了我們的策略，因為我們認為這是最好的策略。

Otherwise we would change it.

否則我們會改變它。

I remain confident in our strategy.

我對我們的策略仍然充滿信心。

I think as we continue to deliver the results that we are delivering in net unit growth, particularly in the post-spin world, I think the strategy and the success of it will speak for itself.

我認為，隨著我們繼續在淨單位成長方面取得成果，特別是在分拆後的世界中，我認為該策略及其成功將不言而喻。

As for what Marriott or anybody else is doing, I'm not going to comment on it.

至於萬豪或其他任何人正在做什麼，我不會發表評論。

I think you've got to ask them if you want to talk about their strategy.

我認為你必須問他們是否想談論他們的策略。

I'm sure they're going to have a call in the next couple of weeks and you can ask them about it.

我確信他們會在接下來的幾週內接到電話，您可以詢問他們。

We're very confident in our strategy.

我們對我們的策略非常有信心。

You can see in terms of deal signings, starts, net unit growth, all those things that are incredibly positively impactful to our bottom line, and our story, we're continuing to pick up some pretty good momentum.

你可以看到，在交易簽約、開工、淨單位成長等方面，所有這些對我們的利潤和我們的故事都產生極其積極影響的事情，我們正在繼續取得一些相當好的勢頭。

Okay.

好的。

I guess my question was more, are you seeing it impact your unit growth?

我想我的問題更多的是，你認為它會影響你的單位成長嗎？

Or is it helping you negotiate with OTAs, but I think the second part of your question largely answered that.

或者它是否可以幫助您與 OTA 進行談判，但我認為您問題的第二部分很大程度上回答了這個問題。

We are doing just fine.

我們做得很好。

We are picking up.

我們正在接貨。

Lots of reasons for why we're gaining momentum, but I think the statistics sort of speak for themselves.

我們獲得動力的原因有很多，但我認為統計數據本身就說明了一切。

We continue to pick up some steam.

我們繼續保持活力。

Okay.

好的。

And then just my follow-up, in terms of direct booking push, how are you thinking about it?

那麼我的後續，在直接預訂推送方面，您是如何考慮的？

Is it impacting RevPAR at all?

它是否會影響 RevPAR？

I can't -- it is not affecting RevPAR in a material way.

我不能——它不會對 RevPAR 產生實質影響。

It's really hard to sort of -- I know others have said that it is so many basis points.

這確實很難排序──我知道其他人也說過，基點太多了。

I mean, as we've studied it, I think it's really hard to say.

我的意思是，正如我們研究過的那樣，我認為這真的很難說。

I think intellectually, it's hard to debate that it's not having a little bit of impact, given de-ranking and dimming that's going on within the OTA world.

我認為，從理智上講，考慮到 OTA 領域正在發生的降級和暗淡，很難爭論它沒有產生一點影響。

But it's not so meaningful that we can really measure it in a hard way.

但它的意義並沒有那麼大，以至於我們真的可以用困難的方式來衡量它。

What I would say is, if we look at it, and we have measured it very carefully, we look at our net rate effectively, the net rate, net of distribution costs, relative of where we are now versus where we were, we're better off across the board.

我想說的是，如果我們仔細地衡量它，我們會有效地審視我們的淨利率，淨利率，扣除分銷成本，相對於我們現在的情況與過去的情況，我們'全面改善。

Meaning that, you'd be willing to sacrifice in theory a little topline growth if the result was, you are bringing your distribution cost down and that your net rate effectively is higher.

這意味著，如果結果是您降低了分銷成本並且您的淨利率實際上更高，那麼理論上您願意犧牲一點收入成長。

Across every one of our categories our net rates are higher.

在我們的每一個類別中，我們的淨利率都較高。

So there's probably some modest amount of impact built in to the last couple quarters and the next couple of quarters of RevPAR growth.

因此，過去幾季和未來幾季的 RevPAR 成長可能會產生一定程度的影響。

On the headline RevPAR, but on the net rate basis, on a net rate basis, we're better off because we're shifting to our lowest-cost channels, and ultimately our job is to drive better results for our owners who are investing all the capital to help us continue to drive that net unit growth we're talking about.

在標題 RevPAR 上，但在淨利率基礎上，在淨利率基礎上，我們的情況更好，因為我們正在轉向成本最低的管道，最終我們的工作是為投資的業主帶來更好的結果所有資本都可以幫助我們繼續推動我們正在談論的淨單位成長。

Our owners are incredibly supportive of what we're doing because they're benefiting from what's going on.

我們的業主非常支持我們正在做的事情，因為他們從正在發生的事情中受益。

Helpful.

有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

Wes Golladay, RBC.

韋斯‧戈拉迪，加拿大皇家銀行。

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

Going back to the scale question, how big -- how much runway do you have to capture scale?

回到規模問題，你需要多大的跑道來捕捉規模？

Do you need to get X percent of a market or a certain size globally?

您是否需要獲得 X% 的市場份額或全球一定的規模？

Where do you get the most bang for the buck on getting scale?

在擴大規模方面，哪裡可以最省錢？

Here is the thing.

事情是這樣的。

I think scale does matter.

我認為規模確實很重要。

I said it in my prepared comments.

我在準備好的評論中說過了。

And I think we have it, right?

我想我們已經做到了，對吧？

I guess we went from the largest in the world to the second largest, post the Marriott Starwood merger but if you take our pipeline and our rooms in existing supply, we have 1.1 million rooms.

我想，在萬豪喜達屋合併後，我們從世界上最大的酒店變成了第二大酒店，但如果你考慮我們的管道和現有的客房供應，我們有 110 萬間客房。

We think that gives us all the scale that we need and we certainly, if you look at the market share numbers that we're driving in each of our brands, that's partly -- obviously great products, great service -- but partly the result of the network effect that scale creates.

我們認為這給了我們所需的規模，當然，如果你看看我們每個品牌所推動的市場份額數字，這部分是——顯然是很棒的產品、優質的服務——但部分是結果規模所產生的網路效應。

If you look at each of those brands, they are leading their segments in terms of market share so I think, as scientific evidence would say, scale matters and we have it, and what we are obviously trying to do is then lead into it more around the world and build more network effect in the various regions around the world where we operate.

如果你看看這些品牌中的每一個，他們在市場份額方面都處於領先地位，所以我認為，正如科學證據所說，規模很重要，而我們擁有它，我們顯然正在努力做的是引導更多的人並在我們開展業務的全球各個地區建立更多的網路效應。

So we feel really good about where -- there is no deficiency, I guess I'd say.

所以我們感覺非常好——我想我會說沒有缺陷。

I think there's opportunity.

我認為有機會。

We've got enough of the network effect that I think shows up in all the numbers that I just described to be able to really take advantage of the scale, and now it is to opportunistically continue to layer brands in different locations and different chain scales in markets to just continue to strengthen that network effect.

我們已經獲得了足夠的網路效應，我認為這體現在我剛才描述的所有數字中，能夠真正利用規模優勢，現在是機會主義地繼續在不同地點和不同連鎖規模中分層品牌在市場上繼續加強網路效應。

Okay.

好的。

And then looking at your various regions and the set up for next year, how do you see -- do you see any demand headwinds in Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, or is the supply going to be a concern in any of those regions?

然後看看各個地區以及明年的安排，您如何看待歐洲、中東、非洲、亞太地區的需求逆風，或者供應是否會成為任何地區的問題？

And looking specifically at a smaller market for you, the Middle East, Africa, for the year-to-date numbers, occupancy is down quite a bit but you seem to have the most pricing power in that region, so just kind of curious what's going on there.

特別是中東、非洲等較小的市場，從今年迄今的數據來看，入住率下降了很多，但您似乎在該地區擁有最大的定價能力，所以有點好奇是什麼在那裡進行。

On a regional basis, I think, honestly next year is going to look a lot like this year.

我認為，從地區角度來看，老實說，明年的情況與今年非常相似。

I hope it's all a step change up a little bit, but in terms of the relative performance around the world, I think it's going to look a lot like this year, which is Asia-Pacific probably leading the charge, non-US Americas, sort of doing reasonably well and comparable.

我希望這一切都會有一點改變，但就世界各地的相對錶現而言，我認為今年的情況會很像，亞太地區可能處於領先地位，美國以外的美洲地區，做得相當好並且具有可比性。

The US market being sort of in the middle of the pack, and Europe and Middle East, Africa, being a little bit lower than the midpoint because of an assumption that Europe -- European economy is going to continue to have anemic growth and Brexit generally, as you get closer to an actual event of the UK leaving the EU.

美國市場處於中間位置，而歐洲和中東、非洲市場則略低於中點，因為人們假設歐洲經濟將繼續增長乏力，而且總體上英國脫歐，當你越來越接近英國離開歐盟的實際事件時。

In terms of thea Middle East, I think it's a very small region relative to many of the others.

就中東而言，我認為相對於許多其他地區來說，這是一個非常小的地區。

There's just enough sort of disruption and enough places where I think we do expect to be positive next year, but relatively modest growth there.

我認為我們確實預計明年會出現積極的變化，但那裡的增長相對溫和，有足夠的破壞和足夠多的地方。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Smedes Rose, Citi.

斯梅德斯·羅斯，花旗銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just along those same lines, as you think about next year and across the 1% to 3% outlook, could you maybe comment on how you think the owned portfolio would do?

同樣，當您考慮明年以及 1% 至 3% 的前景時，您能否評論一下您認為自有投資組合會如何表現？

Do you think maybe like 100 basis points short of that range, given the concentration in some large US markets that face some tough difficulties.

考慮到市場集中在一些面臨嚴峻困難的美國大型市場，您認為可能會比這個範圍短 100 個基點嗎？

How are you sort of thinking about that?

你對此有何看法？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, again, we'll give you a lot more detail on that when we have all the Park folks and we've completed the, fully completed the budget process, which is nearing completion but not done.

我的意思是，當我們擁有所有公園人員並且我們已經完全完成預算流程（即將完成但尚未完成）時，我們將向您提供更多詳細資訊。

But I think your summary is probably a reasonable assumption.

但我認為你的總結可能是個合理的假設。

Okay.

好的。

And I just wanted to ask you one more question on your performance systemwide in the third quarter for RevPAR.

我只是想再問您一個關於第三季全系統 RevPAR 績效的問題。

I know it's not one for one with the STR, but it seems like no matter how you cut it looking at your brands, looking at your US only, it was a significant shortfall to what STR put up, which would have experienced the same calendar shift you talked about.

我知道這與 ​​STR 不是一一對應的，但似乎無論你如何看待你的品牌，只看你的美國，這與 STR 所提出的內容有很大的差距，而 STR 會經歷相同的日曆你說的轉變。

So do you attribute that to -- you talked about some of the regional weakness in more oil markets, or is there concentration in areas that were relative underperformers?

那麼您是否將其歸因於——您談到了更多石油市場的一些區域疲軟，或者是否集中在表現相對不佳的地區？

I just would like to understand that a little better, because it just seems -- such a shortfall.

我只是想更好地理解這一點，因為這似乎是一個缺陷。

Smedes, it's a good question.

斯梅德斯，這是個好問題。

I'd say there are three or four reasons for it as we've looked at it, some of which we've talked about before.

我想說，根據我們的研究，有三、四個原因，其中一些我們之前已經討論過。

The STR data first of all is non-comp, where we are comp so you have to adjust for that.

首先，STR 數據是非比較數據，而我們是比較數據，因此您必須對此進行調整。

Segment weighting, which you talked about, obviously going to have an impact.

您談到的細分加權顯然會產生影響。

I think a few other things, one, we're more urban in orientation than you would find on average in STR, and the urban markets, particularly because business transient was so weak, were more beat up.

我認為還有其他一些事情，第一，我們比 STR 的平均水平更加城市化，而城市市場，特別是因為商業瞬態如此疲軟，更加疲軟。

We have a little bit higher average representation from the oil and gas markets, which were -- it's hard to believe they keep getting worse but they do, which I think hurt us.

石油和天然氣市場的平均代表性要高一些，很難相信它們會繼續惡化，但事實確實如此，我認為這傷害了我們。

And then there's probably, to my earlier comment, a little bit impact from the OTA situation that I talked about.

然後，根據我先前的評論，我談到的 OTA 情況可能會產生一些影響。

Again, we're willing to trade a little bit of headline, topline RevPAR for net RevPAR, if you will, that is higher because that drives a better result for our owners.

再說一次，我們願意用一點頭條、頂線 RevPAR 來換取淨 RevPAR，如果你願意的話，那會更高，因為這會為我們的業主帶來更好的結果。

But my guess is, again, I can't measure it perfectly, my guess is there's certainly some modest impact in the third quarter from what's going on with the OTAs.

但我的猜測是，我無法完美地衡量它，我的猜測是，OTA 的情況肯定會在第三季產生一些適度的影響。

Okay.

好的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Yes.

是的。

Ladies and gentlemen at this time we will conclude the question and answer session.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to hand the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for his closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）作閉幕詞。

Well, thanks, everybody, for the time today.

好的，謝謝大家今天的時間。

I'm glad to see this call worked out better than the last one when the AT&T trunk line shut down on us.

我很高興看到這通通話比上一次 AT&T 中繼線關閉時效果更好。

We got to do in one shot instead of two.

我們必須一次完成而不是兩次。

We appreciate the time, really look forward to getting together with as many as can join us in New York on December 8 at the Conrad in New York downtown.

我們很珍惜這個時間，非常期待 12 月 8 日在紐約市中心的康萊德酒店與盡可能多的人相聚。

We'll have all the management teams there, and I look forward to walking you through all three companies in a great deal of detail.

我們的所有管理團隊都會在那裡，我期待向您詳細介紹這三家公司。

So we'll see you then, and thanks again for the time today.

那麼我們到時候見，再次感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you Mr. Nassetta.

謝謝你，納塞塔先生。

Ladies and gentlemen the conference has now concluded.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。