希爾頓酒店 (HLT) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Hilton Worldwide First Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加希爾頓全球 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jill Slattery, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係高級總監 Jill Slattery。請繼續。

Thank you, Denise. Welcome to Hilton's First Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. Before we begin, we would like to remind you that our discussions this morning will include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements, and forward-looking statements made today are effective only as of today.

謝謝你，丹妮絲。歡迎參加希爾頓 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。在開始之前，我們想提醒您，我們今天上午的討論將包括前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所示的結果有重大差異，今天所做的前瞻性陳述僅截至今日有效。

We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise these statements. For a discussion of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ, please see the Risk Factors section of our most recently filed Form 10-K.

我們不承擔公開更新或修改這些聲明的義務。有關可能導致實際結果不同的一些因素的討論，請參閱我們最近提交的表格 10-K 的風險因素部分。

In addition, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures on this call. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures discussed in today's call in our earnings press release and on our website at ir.hilton.com.

此外，我們將在本次電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在我們的收益新聞稿和我們的網站 ir.hilton.com 上找到今天電話會議中討論的非 GAAP 與 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。

Unless otherwise noted, comparisons to the company's first quarter 2016 results assume that the spinoff transactions had occurred on January 1, 2016. Please see our earnings release for additional details.

除非另有說明，否則與本公司 2016 年第一季業績的比較均假設分拆交易發生於 2016 年 1 月 1 日。請參閱我們的收益發布以了解更多詳細資訊。

This morning, Chris Nassetta, our President and Chief Executive Officer, will provide an overview of the current operating environment and the company's outlook. Kevin Jacobs, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, will then review our first quarter results and provide an update on our expectations for the year. Following their remarks, we'll be available to respond to your questions.

今天早上，我們的總裁兼執行長 Chris Nassetta 將概述當前的營運環境和公司的前景。我們的執行副總裁兼財務長凱文·雅各布斯隨後將回顧我們第一季的業績，並提供我們今年預期的最新資訊。在他們發表講話後，我們將回答您的問題。

With that, I am pleased to turn the call over to Chris.

至此，我很高興將電話轉給克里斯。

Thank you, Jill, and thanks, everybody, for joining us this morning. We're pleased to report our first quarter as the new simplified Hilton, with RevPAR growth at the top end of our guidance range, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS results above expectations and with good progress on our recently announced share repurchase program. As a result of the strong start to the year, we're also raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year.

謝謝吉爾，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。我們很高興地報告我們的第一季是新簡化的希爾頓酒店，每間客房收入增長處於我們指導範圍的頂端，調整後的EBITDA 和調整後的每股收益結果高於預期，並且我們最近宣布的股票回購計劃取得了良好進展。由於今年開局強勁，我們也提高了全年調整後 EBITDA 指引。

We continue to see tremendous momentum in unit growth as our share of global hotel development continues to increase. We opened nearly 8,000 net rooms in the quarter, and we remain on track to deliver approximately 6.5% net unit growth this year, while adding over 100,000 new signed rooms to our development pipeline. We expect 2017 to be another record year for construction starts, openings and net unit growth.

隨著我們在全球酒店開發中的份額不斷增加，我們繼續看到單位增長的巨大勢頭。本季度我們淨開設了近 8,000 間客房，今年我們仍有望實現約 6.5% 的淨單位增長，同時在我們的開發渠道中增加超過 100,000 間新簽約客房。我們預計 2017 年將是開工量、開業量和淨單位成長量再創新高的一年。

Our top line performance continues to benefit from favorable fundamentals, along with market share premiums driven by our industry-leading brands and commercial platform. System-wide RevPAR increased 3% in the quarter, helped by the Easter calendar shift. Leisure and Corporate transient both performed well, and group RevPAR meaningfully outperformed our expectations.

我們的營收績效持續受惠於良好的基本面，以及由產業領導品牌和商業平台所推動的市場佔有率溢價。受復活節日曆調整的推動，本季全系統的 RevPAR 成長了 3%。休閒和企業瞬態都表現良好，團體 RevPAR 明顯超出了我們的預期。

Looking forward, macroeconomic forecasts are relatively unchanged since last quarter, with U.S. GDP and nonresidential fixed investment expected to outpace 2016 growth rates. Modestly accelerating demand should offset forecasted supply growth, allowing us to deliver a full year system-wide RevPAR growth in the 1% to 3% range, driven by solid group and transient performance. Group position for the year remains positive, with nearly 85% of the business on the books.

展望未來，宏觀經濟預測自上季以來相對沒有變化，美國 GDP 和非住宅固定投資預計將超過 2016 年成長率。需求的適度成長應該會抵消預期的供應成長，使我們能夠在穩健的集團和瞬態業績的推動下，實現全年全系統 RevPAR 成長在 1% 至 3% 的範圍內。今年集團的狀況依然樂觀，帳面業務佔近 85%。

Turning to development, our pipeline increased 16% year-over-year to a record 2,100 hotels and 325,000 rooms. Hotel owners continue to invest in our growth at a record pace, accelerating our net unit growth. We continue to approach our growth in a strategic and disciplined way, with new units coming from existing brands in both new and current markets as well as organically developed new brands targeted at incremental market segments. All brand segments are at record pipelines, and the pipeline mix is similar to our installed base with balanced distribution across chain scales.

談到發展，我們的飯店儲備年增 16%，達到創紀錄的 2,100 家飯店和 325,000 間客房。酒店業主繼續以創紀錄的速度投資於我們的成長，加速了我們的淨單位成長。我們繼續以策略性和紀律性的方式實現成長，新的單位來自新市場和現有市場的現有品牌，以及針對增量細分市場的有機開發的新品牌。所有品牌細分市場的管道數量均創歷史新高，管道組合與我們的安裝基礎類似，在連鎖規模上分佈均衡。

As our growth is almost entirely financed by third parties, we generate substantial returns on minimal capital investment. We also generate leading returns on our owners' investments, which enables us to continue growing franchise rates. Our effective rate is currently at 4.8% system-wide and heading towards 5.6% as contracts step up to current rates, increasing roughly 10 basis points per year.

由於我們的成長幾乎完全由第三方資助，因此我們以最少的資本投資獲得了豐厚的回報。我們也為業主的投資帶來了領先的回報，這使我們能夠繼續提高特許經營率。目前，我們全系統的有效利率為 4.8%，隨著合約逐步升至當前利率，該利率將朝著 5.6% 的方向發展，每年增加約 10 個基點。

We've had great success with our new brands, which have been developed at minimal cost. We recently opened our first Tru by Hilton just 15 months after the brand's launch. The property located in Oklahoma City is owned by Champion Hotels. With more than a dozen signed Trus, Champion Hotels is an incredible supporter of the Tru brand. And we're thrilled to celebrate this milestone with such a great partner.

我們以最低成本開發的新品牌取得了巨大成功。在品牌推出僅 15 個月後，我們最近開設了第一家 Tru by Hilton。飯店位於俄克拉荷馬城，由 Champion Hotels 擁有。Champion Hotels 擁有十多家簽約 Trus，是 Tru 品牌的堅定支持者。我們很高興能與如此出色的合作夥伴一起慶祝這一里程碑。

We expect to open about 10 Tru Hotels by year end and an additional 75 next year. There are currently 425 Trus in various stages of development, of which roughly 90% are with current Hilton owners. According to STAR, Tru represents more than 30% of the U.S. industry's mid-scale pipeline.

我們預計到年底將開設約 10 家 Tru Hotels，明年再開設 75 家。目前有 425 個 Trus 處於不同的開發階段，其中約 90% 屬於現任希爾頓所有者。據 STAR 稱，Tru 占美國工業中型管道的 30% 以上。

We also continue to get great traction on our conversion-oriented brands, where deals can move quickly through our pipeline and add to unit growth in the year without increasing industry supply. Curio, our 4-plus star conversion brand continues to attract both domestic and international attention. Over the last several months, we opened our first Curio in the Middle East and signed several projects across continental Europe. As of the end of the quarter, we had nearly 90 Curio hotels open and in the pipeline.

我們也繼續對轉化為導向的品牌產生巨大的吸引力，這些品牌的交易可以透過我們的管道快速推進，並在不增加行業供應的情況下增加當年的單位成長。Curio，我們的四星以上轉化品牌，持續吸引國內外的注意。在過去的幾個月裡，我們在中東開設了第一家 Curio，並在歐洲大陸簽署了多個專案。截至本季末，我們有近 90 家 Curio 酒店正在營業和籌建中。

Our newest conversion brand, Tapestry by Hilton, sits just below Curio, in the 3-star category. At quarter end, we had 60 projects signed or in various stages of negotiations. Additionally, we're on track to open our first Tapestry in the second quarter, less than 6 months after the brand's launch.

我們最新的改裝品牌 Tapestry by Hilton 位於三星級類別 Curio 下。截至季末，我們有 60 個項目已簽署或處於不同階段的談判。此外，我們預計在第二季開設第一家 Tapestry，距離品牌推出不到 6 個月。

In addition to new brands, we think our existing brands have terrific upside, especially in the international markets. Last week, we opened our 100th hotel in China, up from just 5 hotels under a decade ago. Today, our pipeline in China totals nearly 275 hotels and 70,000 rooms, driving our #1 ranking in rooms under construction in the country and 21% share of total rooms under construction in the Asia-Pacific region.

除了新品牌之外，我們認為我們現有的品牌也有很大的優勢，尤其是在國際市場上。上週，我們在中國開設了第 100 家飯店，而十年前只有 5 家飯店。如今，我們在中國的籌建酒店總數已達近 275 家，客房數達 70,000 間，使我們在中國在建客房數量中排名第一，並佔亞太地區在建客房總數的 21%。

We celebrated a major milestone in March with the opening of the Homewood Suites French Quarter in New Orleans, which is our 800th hotel in our All Suites brand portfolio. This segment has been a really strong performer, with RevPAR indexes over 120, and we expect to have another 350 suite hotels open over the next 2 years.

3 月份，我們慶祝了一個重要的里程碑，新奧爾良法國區惠庭套房酒店開業，這是我們全套房品牌組合中的第 800 家酒店。該細分市場的表現非常強勁，RevPAR 指數超過 120，我們預計未來 2 年內將有另外 350 家套房飯店開幕。

Marking another significant milestone, today, we actually opened the Hilton Rio de Janeiro Copacabana, which is our 100th hotel in Latin America. This brings our supply in the region to more than 17,000 rooms across 9 brands, with another 70 projects in the pipeline and shows our continued commitment to strategically expanding our footprint, particularly in resort destinations and key international markets.

今天，我們在裡約熱內盧科帕卡巴納希爾頓酒店開業，這是我們在拉丁美洲的第 100 家酒店，標誌著另一個重要的里程碑。這使我們在該地區的供應量達到9 個品牌的17,000 多間客房，另有70 個項目正在籌備中，這表明我們繼續致力於戰略性擴大我們的足跡，特別是在度假勝地和主要國際市場。

We're also taking full advantage of our global scale to roll out industry-leading innovations. Guests continue to prefer our Web Direct channels, which made up nearly 30% of distribution mix in the first quarter. This is our highest level ever, and Web Direct continues to be our fastest-growing channel, increasing more than 200 basis points in distribution mix year-over-year.

我們也充分利用我們的全球規模來推出領先業界的創新。客人仍然更喜歡我們的 Web Direct 管道，該管道在第一季佔分銷組合的近 30%。這是我們有史以來的最高水平，Web Direct 仍然是我們成長最快的管道，分銷組合較去年同期成長超過 200 個基點。

Our Hilton Honors app is downloaded every 8 seconds and is the highest-rated travel app, providing unprecedented choice and control for guests. Through this app, guests can check in, download their digital key on their mobile device and head straight to their self-selected room upon arrival. By the end of this year, we expect to have digital key capability at all of our hotels in 80 major North American markets and 2,500 hotels globally.

我們的希爾頓榮譽客會應用程式每 8 秒下載一次，是評價最高的旅行應用程序，為客人提供前所未有的選擇和控制。透過應用程序，客人可以辦理入住手續，在行動裝置上下載數位鑰匙，並在抵達後直接前往自己選擇的房間。到今年年底，我們預計北美 80 個主要市場的所有酒店和全球 2,500 家酒店都將擁有數位鑰匙功能。

In the first quarter, HHonors members accounted for 57% of occupancy, up nearly 2 points year-over-year. Additionally, paid member folio increased more than 8% as new members join the program and existing members move up the tiers, enabling us to capture an even greater percentage of their travel wallet. We ended up the first quarter with 63 million HHonors members, up 19% year-over-year.

第一季度，希爾頓榮譽客會會員的入住率達 57%，較去年同期成長近 2 個百分點。此外，隨著新會員加入該計劃以及現有會員升級，付費會員作品集增加了 8% 以上，這使我們能夠從他們的旅行錢包中獲得更大的份額。截至第一季度，我們擁有 6,300 萬名榮譽客會會員，年增 19%。

Post spins, we're a resilient, fee-driven business with a very disciplined strategy that's focused on growing market share, units and free cash flow per share as well as preserving our strong balance sheet and accelerating our return of capital. We estimate a 1-point change in RevPAR growth impacts our adjusted our EBITDA growth by approximately 1 point, roughly the same as every 10,000 net unit adds on a stabilized basis. This year, we expect to add 50,000 to 55,000 net new rooms with great sight lines for the next couple of years, given that we have nearly 170,000 rooms currently under construction.

分拆後，我們是一家有彈性、以費用為導向的企業，擁有非常嚴格的策略，專注於增加市場份額、單位數量和每股自由現金流，以及保持強勁的資產負債表和加速資本回報。我們估計，每間可售房收入成長 1 個百分點的變化，會影響我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長約 1 個百分點，大致相當於穩定基礎上每增加 10,000 個淨單位。鑑於我們目前有近 17 萬間客房在建，今年，我們預計在未來幾年將淨增加 50,000 至 55,000 間視野極佳的新客房。

Given the resiliency of our model, modest changes in RevPAR do not meaningfully impact our free cash flow generation potential. And we intend to be very disciplined in returning capital to shareholders. To provide more clarity, we expect to return $900 million to $1 billion to shareholders this year, with around $200 million in the form of quarterly dividends and the full balance in share repurchases.

鑑於我們模型的彈性，RevPAR 的適度變化不會對我們的自由現金流產生潛力產生重大影響。我們打算在向股東返還資本方面非常嚴格。為了更清楚說明，我們預計今年將向股東返還 9 億至 10 億美元，其中約 2 億美元以季度股息的形式，全額餘額用於股票回購。

At our core, and critical to our continued success, we are a business of people serving people. And our team members strive to provide exceptional experiences at every hotel for every guest, every time. I want to thank all of our team members for their hard work and commitment to our shared purpose to be the most hospitable company in the world.

我們的核心是一家以人為本的企業，這對我們的持續成功至關重要。我們的團隊成員每次都致力於在每家酒店為每位客人提供卓越的體驗。我要感謝我們所有團隊成員的辛勤工作和對我們共同目標的承諾，即成為世界上最熱情好客的公司。

Hilton was again named one of Fortune's 100 best companies to work for. Our inclusion on Fortune's list is a very prestigious ranking and I think a fantastic acknowledgment of where we stand when measured against the top companies in the U.S. and around the world. This ranking is also representative of our exceptional workplace culture. Ranking at #26 in the U.S., we increased our position by 30 places this year, and we ranked #17 globally. We're really proud of this important recognition.

希爾頓再次被《財星》雜誌評為 100 家最適合工作的公司之一。我們入選《財富》榜單是一項非常有聲望的排名，我認為這是對我們與美國和世界各地頂尖公司相比的地位的極大認可。排名也代表了我們卓越的職場文化。我們在美國排名第 26 位，今年排名上升了 30 位，在全球排名第 17 位。我們對這項重要的認可感到非常自豪。

With that, I'm going to turn the call over to Kevin, who will give you a little bit more details on the quarter and our outlook. Kevin?

接下來，我將把電話轉給凱文，他將為您提供有關本季和我們的前景的更多詳細資訊。凱文？

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. For the quarter, system-wide RevPAR grew 3% versus the prior year on a currency neutral basis, which was at the high end of our guidance, due to good transient demand and strong group performance. We estimate the Easter calendar shift boosted RevPAR growth by 70 basis points in the quarter.

謝謝克里斯，大家早安。本季度，由於良好的瞬態需求和強勁的集團業績，在貨幣中性的基礎上，全系統的 RevPAR 與上年相比增長了 3%，處於我們指導的上限。我們估計，復活節日曆的轉變使本季的 RevPAR 成長了 70 個基點。

Adjusted EBITDA of $424 million exceeded the high end of our guidance range, driven by better-than-expected fee growth, good cost control at both the corporate and property levels and onetime items. Roughly half of the beat was related to timing and should not impact full year forecasts.

調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.24 億美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，這得益於好於預期的費用增長、公司和財產層面以及一次性項目的良好成本控制。大約一半的成長與時間有關，不應影響全年預測。

Diluted earnings per share adjusted for special items was $0.38, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and increasing nearly 60% year-over-year on a pro forma basis.

特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.38 美元，超出了我們指導範圍的上限，預計將年增近 60%。

In the quarter, management franchise fees grew 7% versus the prior year to $429 million, well ahead of our 2% to 4% guidance range. In addition to timing-related items, outperformance was driven by greater-than-expected incentive management fees and franchise sales.

本季度，管理特許經營費較上年增長 7%，達到 4.29 億美元，遠高於我們 2% 至 4% 的指導範圍。除了與時間相關的項目外，超出預期的激勵管理費和特許經營銷售也推動了業績的成長。

Turning to our regional performance and outlook. We believe that our broad geographic diversity, coupled with the resiliency of our fee-based model, helps mitigate the impacts of regional uncertainties. Following the spins, no single market or gateway city accounts for more than 3% of our adjusted EBITDA, and international travelers comprise less than 5% of our U.S. room night demand.

轉向我們的區域業績和前景。我們相信，我們廣泛的地理多樣性，加上收費模式的彈性，有助於減輕區域不確定性的影響。調整後，沒有任何一個市場或門戶城市占我們調整後 EBITDA 的 3% 以上，而國際旅客占我們美國間夜需求的比例不到 5%。

In the U.S., comparable RevPAR increased 2.5% in the quarter driven by strong group performance. We estimate oil and gas markets pressured growth by 10 basis points, representing a significant improvement versus the prior 9 quarters. For full year 2017, we continue to forecast the U.S. RevPAR growth towards the midpoint of our 1% to 3% system-wide range.

在美國，由於集團業績強勁，本季可比每間可用客房收入成長了 2.5%。我們估計石油和天然氣市場將成長壓力提高了 10 個基點，與前 9 個季度相比有了顯著改善。對於 2017 年全年，我們繼續預測美國 RevPAR 成長將接近 1% 至 3% 系統範圍的中點。

In the Americas outside the U.S., first quarter RevPAR grew 2.8% versus the prior year due to strength in Mexico and Canada, driven by good group performance. For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region at the higher end of our guidance range.

在美國以外的美洲地區，由於墨西哥和加拿大在良好的集團業績的推動下表現強勁，第一季每間可用客房收入比上年增長了 2.8%。對於 2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將達到我們指導範圍的高端。

RevPAR in Europe grew a strong 8.4% in the quarter, ahead of expectations, due to transient strength in London and a notably strong March for Italy, Spain and the Mediterranean region. Additionally, international inbound to the U.K. was up nearly 20% in the first quarter, helped by favorable exchange rates and increased travel from the Middle East. For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region to be modestly above the high end of our range.

由於倫敦短暫的強勢以及義大利、西班牙和地中海地區 3 月份的強勁表現，歐洲的每間可用房 (RevPAR) 本季度強勁增長 8.4%，超出預期。此外，由於有利的匯率和來自中東的遊客增加，第一季英國的國際入境遊客量增加了近 20%。對於 2017 年全年，我們預計該地區的 RevPAR 成長將略高於我們範圍的高端。

In the Middle East and Africa, RevPAR declined 2.1% in the quarter, which was in line with our expectations, as supply challenges and political unrest in certain markets continued to weigh on results. Modest improvement in Egypt helped mitigate weakness. For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the region of flat to slightly positive.

在中東和非洲，本季每間可用客房收入下降 2.1%，符合我們的預期，因為某些市場的供應挑戰和政治動盪持續影響業績。埃及的小幅改善有助於緩解疲軟狀況。對於 2017 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 成長將持平至小幅成長。

In the Asia-Pacific region, RevPAR increased 5.5% in the quarter led by stronger-than-expected growth in China and solid performance in Japan. For full year 2017, we expect RevPAR growth in the mid-single digits, with RevPAR in China up in the 6% to 7% range.

在亞太地區，由於中國的成長強於預期以及日本的穩健表現，本季每間可用客房收入成長了 5.5%。2017 年全年，我們預計 RevPAR 將實現中個位數成長，其中中國的 RevPAR 將成長 6% 至 7%。

Moving on to capital allocation. We paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share during the quarter for a total of $50 million. Our board also authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share for the second quarter.

繼續進行資本配置。本季我們支付了每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股息，總計 5,000 萬美元。我們的董事會也批准第二季每股 0.15 美元的季度現金股利。

As Chris mentioned, we initiated our stock buyback program in March and have since repurchased over 2.1 million shares for a total of $123 million.

正如 Chris 所提到的，我們在 3 月啟動了股票回購計劃，此後已回購了超過 210 萬股股票，總金額達 1.23 億美元。

The previously announced HNA acquisition of 82.5 million Hilton shares, or a 25% equity interest, from Blackstone closed in March, establishing a long-term investment in Hilton. We believe this strategic partnership will be mutually beneficial as both companies leverage their networks and relationships.

先前宣布的海航集團向黑石集團收購 8,250 萬股希爾頓股票（即 25% 的股權）的交易於 3 月完成，形成了對希爾頓的長期投資。我們相信，隨著兩家公司充分利用各自的網絡和關係，這種策略夥伴關係將是互惠互利的。

Turning to our balance sheet. We successfully executed over $9 billion in financial transactions in the first quarter, including amending and extending our $4 billion of term loans, refinancing our $1.5 billion of senior notes and unwinding and replacing our interest rate swap portfolio.

轉向我們的資產負債表。第一季我們成功執行了超過 90 億美元的金融交易，包括修改和延長 40 億美元的定期貸款、為 15 億美元的優先票據再融資以及解除和更換我們的利率掉期投資組合。

Collectively, these transactions lowered our cost of debt by 25 basis points, reduced our interest rate risk with roughly 75% of our debt now at fixed rates and extended our average debt maturity by approximately 1.5 years. We now have no meaningful maturities for 6 years.

總的來說，這些交易將我們的債務成本降低了 25 個基點，降低了我們的利率風險（目前我們約 75% 的債務為固定利率），並將我們的平均債務期限延長了約 1.5 年。我們現在已經有 6 年沒有任何有意義的到期日了。

For the second quarter of 2017, we expect system-wide RevPAR growth to be 1% to 3%, with the unfavorable calendar shift likely resulting in growth in the lower half of the range. We expect adjusted EBITDA of between $490 million and $510 million, and diluted EPS adjusted for special items of between $0.47 and $0.51.

對於 2017 年第二季度，我們預計全系統 RevPAR 成長率為 1% 至 3%，不利的日曆變化可能導致成長率處於該範圍的下半部。我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 為 4.9 億至 5.1 億美元，特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益為 0.47 至 0.51 美元。

As Chris mentioned, we are maintaining our full year 2017 RevPAR growth guidance of 1% to 3% but are raising our adjusted EBITDA outlook to a range of $1.86 billion to $1.9 billion. We expect to return between $900 million and $1 billion to shareholders this year in the form of dividends and share repurchases. We are also raising diluted EPS adjusted for special items to $1.73 to $1.81 for the year. Please note that our full year EPS range does not incorporate incremental share repurchases.

正如 Chris 所提到的，我們維持 2017 年全年 RevPAR 成長指引 1% 至 3%，但將調整後 EBITDA 前景上調至 18.6 億美元至 19 億美元。我們預計今年將以股利和股票回購的形式向股東回報 9 億至 10 億美元。我們也將今年經特殊項目調整後的稀釋每股收益提高至 1.73 至 1.81 美元。請注意，我們的全年每股收益範圍不包括增量股票回購。

Further details on our first quarter results as well as our latest guidance ranges can be found in the earnings release we issued earlier this morning.

有關我們第一季度業績以及最新指導範圍的更多詳細信息，請參閱我們今天早上發布的收益報告。

This completes our prepared remarks. We would like -- we would now like to open the line for any questions you may have. (Operator Instructions) Denise, can we have our first question, please?

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們希望—我們現在願意為您可能提出的任何問題開通熱線。（操作員指示）丹尼斯，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) And your first question will come from Felicia Hendrix of Barclays.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的 Felicia Hendrix。

Chris, since you last reported, last quarter, we were talking about some of the postelection euphoria. And since you last reported, some of that's worn off. But there's certainly been fits and starts in sentiment, particularly now as the President is trying to put through an ambitious tax plan that could be very favorable for business. So certainly, sentiment plays a role in lodging demand. And I'm wondering, have you seen group demand and business transient demand ebb and flow with different waves of sentiment? Or has the uncertainty regarding various administration policies caused corporate customers to sit on their hands again?

克里斯，自從你上次報道以來，上個季度，我們正在談論一些選舉後的欣快感。自從你上次報道以來，其中一些已經消失了。但情緒肯定會時斷時續，尤其是現在總統正試圖實施一項可能對企業非常有利的雄心勃勃的稅收計劃。因此，情緒肯定會影響住宿需求。我想知道，您是否看到群體需求和業務瞬時需求隨著不同的情緒波動而起伏？還是各種行政政策的不確定性導致企業客戶再次按兵不動？

Here's -- yes, that's a great question, and I think one that's on everybody's mind because it sort of gets to the fundamentals of what's going on with demand in the business. What I'd say is breaking it apart into the 2 segments. First, on the transient side, we've seen it in the leisure transient remain relatively healthy. We haven't seen lots of ebb and flow there both pre- and postelection. If you think about pre- and postelection with business transient, which had increasingly pre-election, I think we all know, become quite anemic to flattish. Postelection, we saw it step up a little bit. And we've seen it remain pretty consistent since. So we saw a little bit of a postelection bump, and it's remained -- I mean, week-by-week, obviously, things move around. But if you sort of cleanse the data, our read of the data is it's been relatively consistent. We haven't seen any further pickup. I think my opinion is there's potential to see further pickup.

這是——是的，這是一個很好的問題，我認為每個人都在思考這個問題，因為它涉及業務需求的基本原則。我想說的是把它分成兩個部分。首先，在瞬態方面，我們看到休閒瞬態保持相對健康。無論是在選舉前還是選舉後，我們都沒有看到太多的潮起潮落。如果你考慮一下選舉前和選舉後的商業瞬態，我想我們都知道，選舉前的商業瞬息萬變，變得相當貧乏甚至乏善可陳。選舉後，我們看到它有所上升。從那時起我們就看到它保持相當一致。因此，我們看到選舉後出現了一些波動，而且這種情況仍然存在——我的意思是，顯然，事情每週都在變化。但如果你對資料進行某種清理，我們對資料的讀取是相對一致的。我們還沒有看到任何進一步的回升。我認為我的觀點是有可能會進一步回升。

I mean, you're looking at some -- while the GDP print in the first quarter was quite weak, there is certainly, I think, still an expectation that GDP growth, as I said in my prepared comments, is going to be better this year than last. If you look at nonresidential fixed investment numbers, which have a very high correlation to demand growth in the hotel business, fourth quarter of last year was the first quarter in a while you saw it go positive, and the first quarter was quite positive. I mean, it was almost -- it was very high single digits. Now if you look at the data, generally, improvement in business transient will be on a lag to that -- to nonresidential fixed investment numbers going up. So I think if you look at those numbers, there's a bit of a reason for optimism. I think, ultimately, time will tell. I mean, it's early in the year. It's early in the Trump administration and this legislative agenda, and I think we need to see it play out. I think to see it go from a little bit of a bump postelection to see further upside, I think you have to see some things settle down. There's still a decent amount of uncertainty around certain foreign policy issues going on and the legislative agenda, health care, tax reform, infrastructure, the regulatory. I think the regulatory is pretty stable, and I think people view that as quite positive. Health care, unclear, maybe have clarity in the short term. Tax policy, a lot of work being done on that and a lot of thinking going on in infrastructure. So I think if those things play out and you have a little bit more certainty, particularly if it's viewed as positive in the business community, and I would say tax reform being the most important of those, I think there is potential to see incremental increases.

我的意思是，你看到的一些數據——雖然第一季的 GDP 數據相當疲軟，但我認為，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，人們肯定仍然預計 GDP 增長將更好今年比去年。如果你看一下非住宅固定投資數據，它與酒店業務的需求增長具有非常高的相關性，去年第四季度是你看到非住宅固定投資數據呈正值一段時間以來的第一個季度，而且第一季的情況相當樂觀。我的意思是，這幾乎是非常高的個位數。現在，如果你看一下數據，一般來說，業務瞬態的改善將落後於非住宅固定投資數字的上升。所以我認為如果你看看這些數字，你會發現有一些樂觀的理由。我認為，最終，時間會證明一切。我的意思是，現在是年初。川普政府和立法議程還處於早期階段，我認為我們需要看到它得到落實。我認為，要看到選舉後的小幅上漲，看到進一步的上漲，我認為你必須看到一些事情穩定下來。某些外交政策問題以及立法議程、醫療保健、稅收改革、基礎設施和監管仍然存在相當大的不確定性。我認為監管相當穩定，我認為人們認為這是非常積極的。醫療保健尚不清楚，但短期內可能會變得清晰。稅收政策，為此做了很多工作，並在基礎設施方面進行了很多思考。因此，我認為，如果這些事情順利進行，並且您有更多的確定性，特別是如果它在商界被視為積極的，而且我認為稅收改革是其中最重要的，我認為有可能看到增量增長。

Again, having said that, what we're seeing is relative stability at the moment. On the group side, which we've had tons of questions about, not surprisingly because there's been a lot of dialogue about it over the last week or so, what I would say is we feel pretty good about the group side. I'd say, if you look at system-wide group performance in the first quarter, we covered it in the prepared comments, frankly, it was a lot better than we thought it would be. And not -- of course, you had the Easter effect, which helped, but we knew the Easter effect was coming. It was better even factoring for the Easter effect. If we look at the full year forecast for what we think for group at the moment, it's a bit better than it would've been a quarter ago or 2 quarters ago. So that -- we feel good about that. If we look at our current position system-wide on the books, we feel pretty good about it. And it certainly supports what we think we need to deliver in the group side for the year. If you look at the pace numbers, which I think people have been focused on, you got to -- I think you've got to parse those carefully because everybody sort of defines it in slightly different ways. I would sort of break it down maybe into 3 categories. Pace in the quarter, in the first quarter for the quarter -- for in the quarter, so very short-term group business, was actually up quite nicely, okay? So that was positive. Pace in the quarter for the full year of 2017 was down marginally. That should be expected, and it follows the pattern that we've seen over this recovery in the last few years, which is you had very high occupancy levels, you're lapping over high occupancy levels, you have 85% of your group business on the books. And so sort of the math on that is you would generally see some of the pace and position numbers decline a little bit as the year goes on.

話雖如此，我們目前看到的是相對穩定。在團體方面，我們有很多問題，這並不奇怪，因為在過去一周左右的時間裡有很多關於它的對話，我想說的是我們對集團方面感覺很好。我想說，如果你看看第一季全系統的團體表現，我們在準備好的評論中對此進行了介紹，坦白說，這比我們想像的要好得多。當然，復活節效應也有幫助，但我們知道復活節效應即將到來。即使考慮到復活節效應，效果也更好。如果我們看看目前對集團的全年預測，我們會發現它比一個季度前或兩個季度前要好一些。所以——我們對此感覺很好。如果我們看看目前全系統的帳面狀況，我們會感覺非常好。它肯定支持我們認為今年需要在集團方面實現的目標。如果你看一下配速數字，我認為人們一直在關注這一點，你必須仔細分析這些數字，因為每個人對它的定義方式都略有不同。我會把它分成三類。本季的進度，本季第一季的進度——本季非常短期的集團業務實際上成長得相當不錯，好嗎？所以這是積極的。2017 年全年季度增速略有下降。這是應該預料到的，它遵循我們在過去幾年的復甦中看到的模式，即您的入住率非常高，您正在超越高入住率，您擁有集團業務的 85％在書本上。因此，從數學上來說，隨著時間的推移，你通常會看到一些速度和位置數字略有下降。

Another I think really important pace number is looking at in the quarter, in the first quarter, what were bookings like for all future periods, not just this year but into the future years. And that was up pretty meaningfully. So again, I think generally supportive of feeling reasonably good about group, April, we got the data in the last couple of days. Pace was up quite nicely in April, obviously, the beginning of the second quarter. By the way, April overall, even though you have the reverse of the Easter effect, I will say performance-wise, April is better than what we thought it would be. And as we look out into '18, '19, the position is quite strong. So maybe more than you wanted to know, but I know a lot of questions on this. I think that we feel fine relative to the range of guidance that we've given overall and group's contribution to that. I think we feel good about group for the year and group going forward.

我認為另一個非常重要的速度數字是在第一季的季度中，未來所有時期的預訂情況，不僅是今年，而且是未來幾年。這非常有意義。所以，我再次認為，四月，我們在過去幾天得到了數據，總體上支持對團體的感覺相當好。顯然，在第二季初，四月的步伐明顯加快。順便說一句，總體來說，四月，儘管復活節效應相反，但我會說，就性能而言，四月比我們想像的要好。當我們展望 18 年和 19 年時，我們的地位相當穩固。也許比你想知道的還要多，但我知道很多關於這方面的問題。我認為，相對於我們提供的整體指導範圍和團隊對此的貢獻，我們感覺良好。我認為我們對今年的團隊以及未來的團隊感覺良好。

The next question will come from Stephen Grambling of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題將由高盛的史蒂芬·格蘭布林（Stephen Grambling）提出。

In the past, you talked to the benefits of network effects for the whole company. As you look at the pipeline growth and RevPAR growth in international markets specifically, which continue to build, are you already getting the benefits of those network effects? And what are the key puts and takes if I think about the pace of the international pipeline going forward?

過去，您談到了網路效應為整個公司帶來的好處。當您特別關注國際市場的管道成長和每間客房收入成長（這些成長持續成長）時，您是否已經從這些網路效應中獲益？如果我考慮國際管道未來的發展步伐，關鍵的考慮因素是什麼？

That's a good question. I would say I don't think that we're fully getting the benefits of the network effect. It depends where you are in the world, where we've built out -- places where we built out broader distribution, we're getting more of the benefit. But there's -- none of them have been built out to the same degree as we have in the U.S. So I think that there's certainly opportunity there. I mean, one gauge, I don't have the exact numbers in my head, but I'll tell you if you look at our average market share in the U.S. versus the other mega regions, the other mega regions have very good market share and rapidly approaching the market share of the U.S. but not quite there. So I think there's still more opportunity in that regard. I think as time goes on, just by definition of the scale of our existing footprint and the size of the population centers outside the U.S. and our underrepresentation, I mean, we're in 104 countries around the world. We're in a lot of places, but we're at the tip of our iceberg of international growth. If you just do the math, that increasingly over the next 5 or 10 years, you're going to see our percentage growth coming from other places around world. But we're really -- I mean, I -- we look at these market share numbers, as you can imagine, every week. We visit with our teams around world, and I've been really pleased in the last 2 or 3 years that those market share numbers are supporting our theory of the network effect that as we're building out broader distribution in other parts of the world that we are rapidly sort of approaching similar market share numbers. But in terms of ultimate growth potential, I think the sky's the limit. I mean, we -- you think about the populations around the world that we can serve, and you think about the layering of existing brands, let alone newer brands that we're launching, we have a tremendous, and I would say sort of certainly in my lifetime, unlimited opportunity to continue to grow.

這是個好問題。我想說的是，我認為我們沒有完全獲得網路效應的好處。這取決於你在世界的哪個地方，我們在哪裡建立了更廣泛的分銷網絡，我們將獲得更多的利益。但它們的建設程度都沒有達到美國的水平，所以我認為那裡肯定有機會。我的意思是，我腦子裡沒有確切的數字，但如果你看看我們在美國的平均市場份額與其他大型地區相比，我會告訴你，其他大型地區擁有非常好的市場份額並迅速接近美國的市場份額，但還沒有完全達到那個水平。所以我認為在這方面還有更多的機會。我認為隨著時間的推移，僅根據我們現有足跡的規模和美國以外人口中心的規模以及我們代表性不足的定義，我的意思是，我們遍布全球 104 個國家。我們涉足很多地方，但我們僅處於國際成長的冰山一角。如果你算一下，在未來 5 年或 10 年裡，你會看到我們的百分比成長來自世界其他地方。但我們真的——我的意思是，我——我們每週都會查看這些市場份額數字，正如你可以想像的那樣。我們拜訪了世界各地的團隊，在過去的兩三年裡，我非常高興這些市場份額數字支持了我們的網絡效應理論，即我們正在世界其他地區建立更廣泛的分銷網絡我們正在迅速接近類似的市場份額數字。但就最終成長潛力而言，我認為沒有極限。我的意思是，我們——你想想我們可以服務的世界各地的人口，你想想現有品牌的層次，更不用說我們正在推出的新品牌了，我們有一個巨大的，我會說有點當然在我的一生中，有無限的機會繼續成長。

And then as a quick follow, where would your RevPAR index in those other markets compared to the U.S.? And are you seeing close the gap similar to how the U.S. market has matured?

接下來，與美國相比，您在其他市場的 RevPAR 指數為何？您認為這種差距是否會像美國市場成熟時一樣縮小？

Yes, I said that. I think they're both, on an annual basis -- quarter-by-quarter, it moves around. I think they're both within a couple of hundred basis points of the other mega regions. EMEA and APAC are within 100, 200 basis points of the U.S. And they've been moving up materially over the last few years at a rapid pace.

是的，我就是這麼說的。我認為，每年、每個季度，它們都會改變。我認為它們與其他大城市的差距都在幾百個基點之內。歐洲、中東和非洲 (EMEA) 和亞太地區與美國的差距在 100 到 200 個基點以內，並且在過去幾年中一直在快速大幅上升。

The next question will come from Shaun Kelley of Bank America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題將由美銀美林的肖恩凱利提出。

Maybe just to touch on a pretty specific one as it relates to the guidance, we noticed that you raised your fee guidance from 6% to 8% up to 7% to 9%. It looks like for this quarter, fee numbers came in much better than expected. So number 1, just what's driving the increase in guidance? And then number 2, if you could, is there some room for some of the line items to possibly continue to improve as we move throughout the year?

也許只是為了觸及與指導相關的一個非常具體的問題，我們注意到您將費用指導從 6% 提高到 8% 到 7% 到 9%。看起來本季的費用數字比預期好得多。那麼第一，是什麼推動了指導意見的增加？然後第二個問題，如果可以的話，隨著我們全年的發展，某些訂單項目是否還有繼續改進的空間？

Yes, Shaun. It's Kevin. The increase in the fee guidance for the year is pretty much, I think I mentioned in my prepared remarks, that about half of the beat was timing-related items and half of the beat was just pure performance, and a good chunk of that was in the fees. So what you're seeing is kind of carrying through the beat to the full year guidance for the balance of the year. And so, of course, if we ended up -- if we were to end up near the high end of the range on RevPAR over the course of the year, of course the fee guidance could continue to go up. But that 1 point increment in the range is just the carry through from the first quarter beat.

是的，肖恩。是凱文。今年費用指導的增加相當多，我想我在準備好的發言中提到過，大約一半的節拍是與時間相關的項目，一半的節拍只是純粹的性能，其中很大一部分是在費用中。所以你看到的是今年剩餘時間的全年指導。因此，當然，如果我們最終接近全年可售房收入範圍的高端，那麼費用指導當然可能會繼續上升。但範圍內的 1 分增量只是從第一拍的延續。

And to be specific, Kevin, just as my follow-up, it was primarily IMF, and is it initial franchise fees? And anything that you're seeing on that initial franchise fee line item we should know about?

具體來說，凱文，就像我的後續行動一樣，主要是國際貨幣基金組織，是初始特許經營費嗎？您在初始特許經營費項目中看到了什麼我們應該了解的資訊？

No, it was kind of broad based, right? I mean, the RevPAR came in at the high end of the guidance. So that's going to push fees to the high end. And then IMF was a little bit better. And then franchise sales, which is a combination of change of ownerships and new deals, was better than we thought. Some of that's timing and some of it is just better than we thought. So it's pretty broad based on the fee side.

不，這是基礎廣泛的，對吧？我的意思是，RevPAR 處於指導的高端。因此，這將把費用推向高端。然後國際貨幣基金組織的情況就更好。然後，特許經營銷售（所有權變更和新交易的結合）比我們想像的要好。有些是時機，有些只是比我們想像的還要好。因此，從費用方面來看，它的範圍相當廣泛。

The next question will be from Harry Curtis of Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題將由 Nomura Instinet 的 Harry Curtis 提出。

I wanted to go back to a comment that Chris made about leading returns to owners. Can you just walk through what do you think is driving that and its sustainability? Is what you're doing easily -- can it be easily copied by your competitors?

我想回到克里斯關於為業主帶來領先回報的評論。您能否簡單介紹一下您認為推動這一目標及其可持續性的因素是什麼？你所做的事情是否容易被你的競爭對手複製？

No, certainly I don't believe it can be easily copied. I think, Harry, it's a complicated answer, obviously. But I think at its core, it's about having better, more consistent brands, which means product that is, in each and every one of the brands and categories, consistent -- service delivery that is consistent; ultimately, a commercial platform that is hitting on all cylinders; all elements of sales and our res systems and revenue management; and our online business and marketing and all of those things sort of coming together to drive performance. And then the other thing that is not easily replicable is you can have really good products, really consistent service and good commercial engines. But in my humble opinion, without having a network effect, meaning having broad price point distribution as well as geographic distribution, you just, by definition, can't take as much of a share of wallet from customers. And as a consequence, you can't drive the same level of market share. So it's all of those things, which of course I'm going to say, I run the company, and we're going to say that we think they're unique.

不，我當然不相信它可以輕易複製。我想，哈利，這顯然是一個複雜的答案。但我認為其核心是擁有更好、更一致的品牌，這意味著每個品牌和類別的產品都是一致的——服務交付是一致的；最終，一個全力以赴的商業平台；銷售的所有要素以及我們的資源系統和收入管理；我們的線上業務和行銷以及所有這些東西結合在一起來推動績效。另一件不容易複製的事情是你可以擁有真正好的產品、真正一致的服務和良好的商業引擎。但以我的拙見，如果沒有網路效應，即沒有廣泛的價格點分佈和地理分佈，根據定義，你就無法從客戶那裡獲得盡可能多的錢包份額。因此，您無法獲得相同水平的市場份額。所以這就是所有這些事情，我當然會說，我經營這家公司，我們會說我們認為它們是獨一無二的。

We don't think -- we think we're one of a very limited number of people that have a real network effect. And in terms of having the purest brand portfolio in the business, we think we got it, meaning that every one of our brands in every category is either the leader or a category killer in its segment. There's no dogs in the bunch. So when owners come to us for various needs that they have where they're following demand patterns, whatever those might be at whatever type of product or price point, we have a great product to give them where we're going to drive consistently, market leading market share, and that's what they're investing in. They're investing in a system to drive top line and bottom line performance and drive the best returns. And I think the fact that we've been able to lead the industry in driving growth and doing it organically without having to use our balance sheet in any meaningful way is a pretty darn good testimonial to that. Now, we have to keep doing it. So we now have to make sure that as we launch new product, they're great products, that they really resonate with customers, that we have consistency and high quality, that service delivery. I said we're a business of people serving people, and we are. Service delivery matters a lot. But that network effect of connecting all of those dots around geography and price point matters a whole lot. And I think, ultimately, what we have is awfully unique.

我們不認為——我們認為我們是極少數擁有真正網路效應的人之一。就擁有業內最純粹的品牌組合而言，我們認為我們做到了，這意味著我們每個類別的每個品牌要么是其細分市場的領導者，要么是類別殺手。這群人裡沒有狗。因此，當車主向我們尋求他們遵循需求模式的各種需求時，無論這些需求是什麼類型的產品或價格點，我們都有一個很棒的產品可以為他們提供我們將持續推動的地方，市場領先的市場份額，這就是他們投資的目標。他們正在投資一個系統來提高頂線和底線績效並獲得最佳回報。我認為，我們能夠引領產業推動成長，並有機地實現成長，而無需以任何有意義的方式使用我們的資產負債表，這一事實是對此的一個非常好的證明。現在，我們必須繼續這樣做。因此，我們現在必須確保，當我們推出新產品時，它們是偉大的產品，它們真正能引起客戶的共鳴，我們的服務交付具有一致性和高品質。我說過我們是一家以人為本的企業，我們確實如此。服務交付非常重要。但圍繞地理和價格點連接所有這些點的網路效應非常重要。我認為，歸根結底，我們擁有的東西是非常獨特的。

The next question will come from Joe Greff of JPMorgan.

下一個問題將由摩根大通的喬·格雷夫提出。

Chris, before, in your development pipeline commentary, you mentioned that 52% of the pipeline is under construction, which gives you pretty good visibility to net rooms growth. You also referenced in the press release that construction starts in the first quarter are up 50%, or our nearly 50% from year-ago levels. What's driving that? Is it simply developers just wanted to get in front of interest rate moves and accelerate the financing timeline? Or is it something else? And then also the 325,000 rooms in the pipeline, what percent of those projects are fully financed at this point?

Chris，之前，在您的開發管道評論中，您提到 52% 的管道正在建設中，這使您可以很好地了解淨房間增長情況。您也在新聞稿中提到，第一季的開工量成長了 50%，比去年同期成長了近 50%。是什麼推動了這一點？難道開發商只是想搶在利率變動之前並加快融資時間表嗎？還是別的什麼？還有正在籌建中的 325,000 間客房，這些項目目前已全額融資的百分比是多少？

I probably can't answer the second. I'll ask Kevin to take a shot at it. But the -- in terms of the first, the numbers are accurate. We're up construction starts 50%. I do not think that we'll be up 50% construction starts for the full year, okay, just to be clear. That is an accurate data point. I think for the year, it will be less than that. What's driving the first quarter and that's going to help us a lot in the year is, I think, that we're sort of firing on all cylinders in all segments. But the thing that really accelerated first quarter was Tru. New brand launch, lots of Trus getting under construction. It's the lowest price point we have in terms of cost per room to build, much more financeable than a lot of other products in a financing market that is sort of stable, but got a little bit tighter or remains a little bit tighter. So I think proportionally, we're getting more of the financing dollars. The other driver of it was huge good things going on in China with limited service, particularly with our deal with Plateno, a ton of New Hamptons that went under construction in the first quarter. Now we're going to have a ton more coming, but my sense is it will stabilize out that the Tru and the Hampton in China help supercharge the first quarter a bit. In terms of the 325,000 -- what -- in the pipeline that would be under construction, certainly half of it -- that would be financed -- half of it's under construction, so it's financed. So I would say, somewhere on the order of 60% to 70%, because there's a 10% or 20% and I'm sort of guesstimating, that would be on the verge of getting under construction or probably committed. So conservatively, I'd probably say 60%.

我可能無法回答第二個。我會請凱文嘗試一下。但就第一點而言，數字是準確的。我們的開工率提高了 50%。我不認為全年開工率會增加 50%，好吧，澄清一下。這是一個準確的數據點。我認為今年的數字會低於這個數字。我認為，第一季的推動因素以及今年將對我們有很大幫助的是，我們在所有領域都在全力以赴。但真正加速第一季發展的是 Tru。新品牌推出，大量 Trus 正在建造中。就每個房間的建造成本而言，這是我們的最低價格點，比融資市場上的許多其他產品更具融資性，融資市場有點穩定，但變得有點緊張或仍然有點緊張。所以我認為，按比例來說，我們獲得了更多的融資資金。另一個推動因素是中國在服務有限的情況下發生了巨大的好事，特別是我們與鉑濤的交易，鉑濤在第一季開始建造大量新漢普頓。現在我們將會有更多的人來，但我的感覺是，中國的 Tru 和 Hampton 有助於為第一季帶來一點動力，這將會穩定下來。就 325,000 座——什麼——正在建設中的管道而言，當然其中一半——將得到融資——一半正在建設中，所以它得到了融資。所以我想說，大概是 60% 到 70%，因為有 10% 或 20%，我有點猜測，這將處於建設或可能承諾的邊緣。保守地說，我可能會說 60%。

Yes, I think that's probably right, Joe. It's hard to have perfect visibility. And the other thing to think about is I think most of the focused service projects, particularly in the U.S., they may not be technically fully financed, but they'll get financed because most of the folks who are building those are repeat developers. They have really strong relationships with their regional banks. And at the end of the day, if it's a viable project, they're going to get it financed. But I think Chris' guess is pretty good, but it's hard to have full visibility into that.

是的，我想這可能是對的，喬。想要獲得完美的能見度是很困難的。另一件需要考慮的事情是，我認為大多數重點服務項目，特別是在美國，它們可能在技術上沒有充分的融資，但它們會得到融資，因為大多數構建這些項目的人都是重複開發人員。他們與地區銀行有著非常牢固的關係。最終，如果這是一個可行的項目，他們就會獲得融資。但我認為克里斯的猜測相當不錯，但很難完全了解這一點。

The next question will come from Carlo Santarelli of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的卡洛桑塔雷利提出。

Chris, you spoke a little bit about business transient trends and kind of what you saw pre-election, postelection. If we go back to when you guys spoke in February on your 4Q earnings call, I think one of the comments that you made was if you can get business transient in that 1% to 2% range, that would maybe lead to the higher end of your 1% to 3% guidance range for the year. Could you maybe comment on how things have shaped up since then and kind of where you're tracking relative to those metrics?

克里斯，您談到了商業瞬態趨勢以及您在選舉前和選舉後看到的情況。如果我們回到你們二月在第四季度財報電話會議上發言時，我認為你們發表的評論之一是，如果你能讓業務瞬態在1% 到2% 的範圍內，那可能會導致更高的結果今年 1% 至 3% 的指導範圍。您能否評論一下自那時以來事情的發展情況以及您相對於這些指標的追蹤情況？

That's a good question. I'd say we're probably tracking in that zone. There's noise week to week and month to month, but I'd say we're in the 1% to 2% zone. And as -- we were sitting around -- every Monday morning, I start with an [EC] call with all of our senior folks from around the world, I did it yesterday like I do every Monday, and we go through the performance in every major region of the world. And I'd say, there's generally a level of -- a decent level of optimism from all of our folks coming out of April, where if we look at all of the regions, I think everybody felt like April was trending better. And as they go into May and June, they're feeling reasonably good. So to get to the high end level of the range, I'd say right now, and we gave you a 2-point range in outcome because it's early in the year, okay, that -- and I think that's the prudent thing to do. If you put me on the spot a little bit, where -- if I had to refine that more, where do I think it would be? Honestly, what I see right now, real time and talking to our teams and looking at the data, I would say we'd be at the mid to the high point. That's what forecasting -- current forecasting would suggest. Now there's a lot to play out in the year. There's a lot going on. We talked about the legislative agenda and foreign policy. There's a lot out there. But we've got -- it's not roaring, but we've got pretty good stability in the range of outcome that we talked about in business transient, and leisure transient's hanging in there. And I give you a long soliloquy on group that makes me feel with our position in group for the rest of this year reasonably good, that it's going to deliver what we want delivered there. So yes, we're in that zone. And I will say we feel good about delivering what we're suggesting we're going to deliver.

這是個好問題。我想說我們可能正在那個區域進行追蹤。每週、每月都有噪音，但我想說我們處於 1% 到 2% 的區域。當我們坐在一起時，每個星期一早上，我都會與來自世界各地的所有高級人員進行 [EC] 電話會議，我昨天就這樣做了，就像每個星期一一樣，我們在世界每個主要地區。我想說的是，從四月開始，我們所有人都普遍表現出一定程度的樂觀情緒，如果我們看看所有地區，我認為每個人都覺得四月份的趨勢更好。當他們進入五月和六月時，他們感覺相當不錯。因此，為了達到該範圍的高端水平，我現在就說，我們給了你一個 2 點的結果範圍，因為現在還處於今年年初，好吧，我認為這是謹慎的做法做。如果你讓我陷入困境，如果我必須進一步完善它，我認為它會在哪裡？老實說，我現在所看到的，即時與我們的團隊交談並查看數據，我想說我們將處於中高點。這就是預測——當前的預測所建議的。現在這一年有很多事情要做。有很多事情發生。我們討論了立法議程和外交政策。那裡有很多東西。但我們已經——這不是咆哮，但我們在商務瞬態和休閒瞬態中討論的結果範圍內有相當好的穩定性。我給你們一個關於團隊的長篇獨白，這讓我覺得我們在今年剩下的時間裡在團隊中的地位相當好，它將交付我們想要交付的東西。所以是的，我們就在那個區域。我想說的是，我們對實現我們建議的目標感到滿意。

Great. That's helpful and if I may, just a quick follow-up. Obviously, you guys have the dividend in place. It's offering about a 1% yield now. When you think about 2018 and growth in the business, how are you thinking about the trajectory of the dividend? And maybe what kind of benchmarks are you using in terms of thoughts to grow it?

偉大的。這很有幫助，如果可以的話，我只是快速跟進。顯然，你們已經到位了股利。現在它的收益率約為1%。當您思考 2018 年和業務成長時，您如何看待股息的軌跡？也許您在思想方面使用什麼樣的基準來發展它？

Yes, I mean, we're really sort of in the 20% or 25% of free cash flow. So as the free cash flow goes up, I think there could be some modest increases in the dividend. I would guide you to not expect that this year. I mean I think we're going to be stable with where we are. But there'll be potential in future years as free cash flow goes up. We, as you probably gathered from our commentary, we're a lot more focused on returning capital in the form of buybacks. Just -- we obviously want to have a dividend. We want yield investors to be able to invest in the stock. But in terms of driving great sort of market-leading total returns to shareholders over a long period of time, we think being relatively modest on the dividend side and much more robust, as robust as we can, on the buyback side is going to lead to the best long-term returns.

是的，我的意思是，我們確實有 20% 或 25% 的自由現金流。因此，隨著自由現金流的增加，我認為股息可能會略有增加。我會引導你不要指望今年會出現這種情況。我的意思是我認為我們會保持穩定。但隨著自由現金流的增加，未來幾年將會有潛力。正如您可能從我們的評論中了解的那樣，我們更專注於以回購的形式返還資本。只是——我們顯然希望獲得股息。我們希望收益投資者能夠投資該股票。但就在很長一段時間內為股東帶來市場領先的總回報而言，我們認為，在股息方面相對溫和，在回購方面盡可能穩健，將處於領先地位。

The next question will come from Jeff Donnelly of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的傑夫唐納利。

Just maybe a first part of the question, Chris, I'm just curious, I know that politicians have thrown out some new tax plans. I'm just curious how the potential of a new tax policy affects your thinking on capital allocation and leverage? I recognize it's a little bit of a wait and see, but I just wasn't sure what might be kind of in your thoughts.

也許只是問題的第一部分，克里斯，我只是很好奇，我知道政客們已經推出了一些新的稅收計劃。我只是好奇新稅收政策的潛力如何影響您對資本配置和槓桿的思考？我知道這有點等待觀望，但我只是不確定你的想法是什麼。

Yes. It is definitely a little bit early, and it's wait and see. I mean, they've thrown some things out there, and we've had some pretty good discussions with folks that are on the point on this to get a bit of a sense of what's going on behind the scenes. I think they're darn serious about getting something done, and I would not at all be surprised if when we finish this year, either something's done or something is pretty well baked and getting done. I think from my point of view, whatever they're going to do, all of the options that we're looking at, I think are going to be good for our business. I think -- now it could turn out a different way, but certainly, everything that's sort of being bandied about, the net result for us is positive, meaning that it's going to ultimately drive more free cash flow. And so it doesn't really change in any way our capital allocation policy. It just may change the amount of capital that we have to allocate, meaning if taxes go down, free cash flow goes up. Our belief is and our strategy will be to return all of that cash flow back to shareholders, too, again, largely in the form of incremental buybacks. So I think same plan, just may have, if they get something good done, we'll have more to play with.

是的。現在確實有點早，還得等等看。我的意思是，他們已經拋出了一些東西，我們與相關人士進行了一些非常好的討論，以便對幕後發生的事情有一些了解。我認為他們非常認真地想要完成某件事，如果我們今年結束時，某件事已經完成，或者某件事已經很好地烘烤並完成了，我一點也不會感到驚訝。我認為從我的角度來看，無論他們要做什麼，我們正在考慮的所有選擇，我認為都會對我們的業務有利。我認為 - 現在它可能會以不同的方式出現，但當然，所有被炒作的事情，對我們來說的最終結果是積極的，這意味著它將最終推動更多的自由現金流。因此，它並沒有真正改變我們的資本配置政策。它可能會改變我們必須分配的資本量，這意味著如果稅收下降，自由現金流就會增加。我們的信念是，我們的策略也將是將所有現金流返還給股東，同樣主要以增量回購的形式。所以我認為同樣的計劃，可能會有，如果他們做得很好，我們就會有更多的東西可以玩。

And then just a follow-up, setting aside some of these macroeconomic drivers like nonresidential fixed investment for a moment, what are some of the positive and negative considerations from the operating side of the industry that are really shaping your outlook? And is it the pricing pressure from supply maybe offset some of the strong pipeline deliveries you have? Or do you see an ability to renegotiate with OTAs? I'm just kind curious what bottles up from the industry itself that really drives your view on Hilton?

接下來，暫時拋開非住宅固定投資等一些宏觀經濟驅動因素，在行業運營方面有哪些積極和消極的考慮因素真正影響了您的前景？來自供應的定價壓力是否可能抵消一些強勁的管道交付量？或者您認為有能力與 OTA 重新談判嗎？我只是很好奇產業本身的哪些因素真正影響了您對希爾頓的看法？

Well, I mean, that's a complicated question, and I'm not exactly sure there's a succinct way of answering it. I think it's sort of a combo platter of everything. I mean, our model now, as we've talked about, is pretty simplified. I mean, it's really focused on continuing to do everything we can with our brands and our commercial strategies to drive share so we drive unit growth. And if we do those 2 things and outperform, we're going to drive incremental cash flow, which we're going to give back to shareholders. And so there are a whole bunch of things sort of bubbling around the industry that are going to contribute to that, whether that be on OTA renegotiations over time, which will obviously continue to take place, whether that be finding other distribution partners that are very efficient distribution partners that allow us to have access to new customer bases.

嗯，我的意思是，這是一個複雜的問題，我不確定是否有一個簡潔的方法來回答它。我認為這是一切的組合拼盤。我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，我們現在的模型非常簡化。我的意思是，我們真正專注於繼續盡一切努力利用我們的品牌和商業策略來提高份額，從而推動單位成長。如果我們做到這兩件事並且表現出色，我們將推動增量現金流，並將其回饋給股東。因此，整個行業正在醞釀著一系列的事情，這些事情將有助於這一點，無論是隨著時間的推移，OTA 重新談判，這顯然會繼續發生，無論是尋找其他非常好的分銷合作夥伴。高效的分銷合作夥伴使我們能夠獲得新的客戶群。

Importantly, our direct strategies, which we've talked a lot about over the last couple of years and -- are going to be strategies that go far into the future. The evolution of HHonors and having it be a real club that everybody wants to be a member of that has a real value for both frequent and infrequent travelers. There's a huge amount of opportunity still left there to continue to take, what, a 30% online business and grow it to a much higher share of our business. So there are a multitude of things that we're going to do on the commercial side. There are a multitude of things that we're going to continue to do with our existing brands to make sure they continue to be relevant. New brands, which we've talked about, we launched one this year. We've got 4 more in the Skunk Works, which obviously, will help us deliver, from a Hilton point of view, incremental growth. But importantly, it's going to help us further that network effect that I talked about to give us an opportunity to serve even more of our existing customers, bring new customers into the fold. So there's a bunch of company-specific, industry-related things that we're going to do. But it's -- again, I could go on for a long time, it's a complex strategy. But the ultimate goal and sort of the holy grail is share. It's all of those things are so that we can drive incremental share to drive incremental profitability to owners, so they want to continue to invest tens of billions of dollars in our system.

重要的是，我們的直接策略，在過去幾年裡我們已經討論了很多，並且將是長期有效的戰略。希爾頓榮譽客會的發展以及讓它成為一個人人都想成為會員的真正的俱樂部，對於常旅客和不常旅客來說都具有真正的價值。仍然有大量的機會繼續佔據 30% 的線上業務，並將其發展到我們業務中更高的份額。因此，我們將在商業方面做很多事情。我們將繼續對現有品牌做很多事情，以確保它們繼續具有相關性。我們已經討論過的新品牌，我們今年推出了一個。我們在臭鼬工廠裡還有 4 個工廠，從希爾頓的角度來看，這顯然將幫助我們實現漸進式成長。但重要的是，它將幫助我們進一步實現我談到的網路效應，讓我們有機會為更多現有客戶提供服務，吸引新客戶。因此，我們要做很多公司特定的、產業相關的事情。但這是——再說一遍，我可以繼續很長時間，這是一個複雜的策略。但最終目標和聖杯是分享。所有這些都是為了讓我們能夠增加份額，從而為所有者帶來增量盈利，因此他們希望繼續在我們的系統中投資數百億美元。

The next question will come from Jared Shojaian of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Jared Shojaian。

You talked about the timing (inaudible) comment on the (inaudible)

您談到了對（聽不清楚）的評論的時機（聽不清楚）

Jared, we can't hear you.

賈里德，我們聽不到你的聲音。

We can't -- your line is breaking up, unfortunately.

我們不能——不幸的是，你的線路要中斷了。

Can you hear me better now?

現在你能聽得更清楚了嗎？

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Sir, your line is breaking up. I'll need to move on to the next question, and that will be from Smedes Rose of Citi.

先生，您的線路斷線了。我需要繼續討論下一個問題，該問題將由花旗銀行的 Smedes Rose 提出。

I wanted to just follow up on the development question. I was just wondering, have you guys seen any change in the willingness of local lenders to finance developments? Just from, say, versus a year ago, do you think that's getting easier or harder as you're brining new property to market?

我只想跟進開發問題。我只是想知道，你們看到當地貸款機構為開發專案融資的意願有什麼改變嗎？比方說，與一年前相比，您認為隨著您將新房產推向市場，這變得更容易還是更困難？

I think on the margin, it's stable. I think throughout the second half of last year and maybe a little bit of this year, but really second half of last year, it became incrementally -- the market became a little tighter, a little harder. Terms were a little tougher, loan to values were a little lower, pricing a little higher, all of those things. My sense in talking to our development teams and lots of owners is that it's relatively stable. Certainly, I would say relatively stable for the owners that are very good borrowers, that have been out doing this as a part of their business over an extended period of time. So from the last quarter, not any material change.

我認為在邊際上，它是穩定的。我認為去年下半年，也許今年有一點點，但實際上是去年下半年，它變得逐漸 - 市場變得有點緊張，有點困難。條款有點嚴格，貸款價值有點低，定價有點高，所有這些。在與我們的開發團隊和許多所有者交談時，我的感覺是它相對穩定。當然，我想說，對於那些非常好的借款人的業主來說，相對穩定，他們已經在很長一段時間內將這作為其業務的一部分。所以從上個季度開始，沒有任何實質變化。

Okay. And then, I just had a quick -- it's a small question, but your Conrad hotels showed a RevPAR decline in the quarter, driven by a 5% decline in rates. And I was just wondering if there was something in particular there that was going on that was maybe seasonal or regional?

好的。然後，我有一個簡短的問題——這是一個小問題，但你們的康萊德酒店在本季度的 RevPAR 有所下降，原因是房價下降了 5%。我只是想知道那裡是否正在發生一些特別的事情，可能是季節性的或區域性的？

No. It was just a couple of individual hotels, Smedes. It's not that many hotels, but a couple of individual hotels that had just off-group pace for the quarter...

不。這只是幾家獨立的酒店，斯梅德斯。並不是那麼多酒店，而是幾家個別酒店在本季度的表現與集團無關…

For the full year, yes, the numbers are fine, but yes, it's a small enough system where you have a couple of hotels have a huge impact.

對於全年來說，是的，數字還不錯，但是，是的，這是一個足夠小的系統，其中有幾家酒店會產生巨大的影響。

The next question will come from Thomas Allen of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將由摩根士丹利的托馬斯艾倫提出。

Just in terms of your major corporate customers, was there any industry verticals that really stood out in terms of underperforming or outperforming?

就您的主要企業客戶而言，是否有任何垂直行業在表現不佳或表現出色方面真正脫穎而出？

Not really. In preparation for the call, in going through our quarter end numbers, I had our sales folks in here and I asked them the very same question. They -- nothing really stood out. They said it's been generally consistent as between industries. I mean, with the -- maybe with the energy sector being the exception, where you're starting to see a little bit of outperformance relative to where it's been, given what's going on in the energy sector. But otherwise, pretty consistent.

並不真地。在準備電話會議時，在查看季度末數據時，我讓我們的銷售人員在這裡，我問了他們同樣的問題。他們——沒有什麼真正引人注目的。他們表示，行業之間的情況總體上是一致的。我的意思是，也許能源產業是個例外，考慮到能源產業正在發生的事情，您開始看到相對於以往的表現有一些出色。但除此之外，非常一致。

Great. And then China, any more granularity about what drove the strength in that quarter? And what raised -- drove you to raise your guidance for that site -- or country?

偉大的。然後是中國，能否更詳細說明推動該季度強勁成長的因素？是什麼促使您提高對該網站或國家的指導？

Well, we raised guidance a little bit for the year because we performed at 10% for the quarter. We're just seeing -- part of it is hotels ramping up more strongly. Part of it is the economy is holding in, in China and maybe a little bit of overlapping of some of the constraints that were going on last year in China.

嗯，我們稍微提高了今年的指引，因為我們本季的表現為 10%。我們剛剛看到——部分原因是酒店的成長更加強勁。部分原因是中國經濟保持穩定，也許與去年中國出現的一些限制有些重疊。

The next question will come from Robin Farley of UBS.

下一個問題將由瑞銀集團的羅賓法利提出。

So 2 follow-ups from something you discussed earlier. First is when you talked about the pace of group in the year, I wonder if you could comment on rate -- how rate trended during Q1 for forward periods? And then I have one other follow-up.

這是您之前討論過的 2 個後續內容。首先是當您談到今年集團的步伐時，我想知道您是否可以對利率發表評論——第一季未來期間的利率趨勢如何？然後我還有另一個後續行動。

I don't have that data. My recollection -- they can look for it. My recollection is it was up modestly.

我沒有那個數據。我的記憶——他們可以找。我的記憶是，它的漲幅不大。

Okay. And then the other revenue line, and you gave a lot of color that was helpful on kind of in management fees and franchise fees. The other revenue line was up about $20 million, which is a lot of maybe what the -- it's close to the dollar amount of the EBITDA beat. I wonder if you could give a little bit of color on what was in the other revenue line that was (inaudible)?

好的。然後是其他收入線，您提供了很多對管理費和特許經營費有所幫助的色彩。其他收入增長了約 2000 萬美元，這可能是很多——它接近 EBITDA 的美元金額。我想知道您是否可以對其他收入線（聽不清楚）中的內容進行一些說明？

Yes, some of the -- Robin, some of the ones I mentioned I think that -- I did mention that half of the beat was onetime items and there were just a couple of -- sorry, timing items, and a couple of the timing items were in that other fee category that just shows up in other revenue. So that's why you saw that spread there. And that will normalize over the course of the year.

是的，其中一些——羅賓，我提到的一些我認為——我確實提到過一半的節拍是一次性的項目，只有幾個——抱歉，計時項目，還有一些計時項目屬於其他費用類別，僅顯示在其他收入。這就是為什麼你看到這種情況在那裡蔓延。這將在今年內恢復正常。

Okay. Is there just any color on what some of those items might have been?

好的。其中一些物品是否有任何顏色？

Not -- I don't want to get into specifics, so just a couple of random things. We can talk a little bit more about specifics if you want off-line.

不——我不想討論細節，所以只是一些隨機的事情。如果您想要離線，我們可以更多地討論細節。

The next question will come from Chad Beynon of Macquarie.

下一個問題將由麥格理的查德貝農 (Chad Beynon) 提出。

Sticking with a geography question, regarding your performance in Europe, which was up 8%, stronger than we had thought, and I believe the segment accounts for 12% of your EBITDA, so it is fairly important. Your guidance of slightly above the 1% to 3%, could you elaborate just a little bit in terms of why you expect to see the deceleration? Is that just a factor of comps? Or maybe just being a little cautious there?

堅持一個地理問題，關於你們在歐洲的業績，成長了 8%，比我們想像的要強，我相信該部門佔你們 EBITDA 的 12%，所以它相當重要。您的指引略高於 1% 至 3%，您能否詳細說明您預計會出現減速的原因？這只是比較的一個因素嗎？或者也許只是有點謹慎？

All right, Chad, what region are you talking about?

好吧，查德，你說的是哪個地區？

Europe.

歐洲。

In Europe? Yes, I think, Europe, was obviously particularly strong in the first quarter. We're expecting some of that to normalize over the course of the year. We still think it will be above the high end, and that's just pretty much all that went into that.

在歐洲？是的，我認為歐洲在第一季顯然特別強勁。我們預計其中的一些情況將在今年內恢復正常。我們仍然認為它會高於高端，這幾乎就是全部。

Okay, great. And then regarding the buybacks, could you help us think about programmatic versus opportunistic and how the April buybacks kind of fit into that thesis?

好的，太好了。然後關於回購，您能否幫助我們思考程序性與機會主義以及四月的回購如何符合該論文？

Yes, I think we've tried to be abundantly clear on what we intend to do this year at this point. $900 million to $1 billion total, minus $200 million in dividends. So $700 million to $800 million of buybacks, all of which we're doing essentially programmatically. The course we're on, we just, I think, began the program on March 8 because we had to get the approvals from our Board of Directors and all those things that you guys saw. So I think we're -- if you were to look at what we did in the month of April, March and April combined, I think we're on a trajectory to sort of be in that range. And if we're not, we'll obviously adjust the range. A large part of that period of time was under a plan that we couldn't alter because we were in a quiet period. So it was clicking along based on a pre-determined grid. We can obviously now, post-earnings, adjust that grid, and we will, if appropriate, to get to the numbers that we've talked about.

是的，我認為我們已經盡力明確今年的計劃。總計 9 億至 10 億美元，減去 2 億美元股利。因此，我們將進行 7 億至 8 億美元的回購，所有這些基本上都是以程式設計方式進行的。我認為我們在 3 月 8 日才開始該計劃，因為我們必須獲得董事會的批准以及你們所看到的所有這些事情。所以我認為，如果你看看我們在 4 月、3 月和 4 月合計所做的事情，我認為我們正處於這個範圍內。如果我們不這樣做，我們顯然會調整範圍。那段時間的大部分時間都在計劃之中，我們無法改變，因為我們處於安靜時期。所以它是根據預先確定的網格進行點擊的。顯然，我們現在可以在收益公佈後調整該網格，如果合適的話，我們將達到我們討論過的數字。

The next question will be from David Beckel of Bernstein Research.

下一個問題將來自伯恩斯坦研究中心的大衛貝克爾。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about international trends inbound into the U.S. It's been a while since the couple of failed attempts to enact any sort of travel ban by the administration. Has that caused any sort of a pullback in corporate or group activity that you've seen?

我想知道您是否可以談談進入美國的國際趨勢。您所看到的這是否導致企業或團體活動出現某種程度的縮減？

If you look at the broader trend, interestingly, last year, international -- revenues from international arrivals was down about 3%. So it was off for a host of reasons. I'd say last year, predominantly the strength of the dollar, maybe a little bit what was going on postelection. But there wasn't a whole lot of year left postelection, so I think it was predominantly dollar. If you look at it in the first quarter, which is obviously at this point the only data that we have, revenues from international inbound business was actually up a little bit. I mean, not a lot. I mean, it's sort of flat to up 1%. And it -- but it's not consistent from the various places around the world. If you look at -- if you break the world apart, it was up from Canada and up from Asia Pacific. It was down from Mexico and down from the Middle East. I think, in part, related to some of the things that are going on politically, the net of which was it was up a little bit. I think with where the dollar is today and some of the other things that are going on, our expectation is for this full year that you're going to see international business down a little bit, maybe sort of circa -- notwithstanding it was up in the first quarter, maybe circa where it was for last year. Now a lot of things can play out and change that outcome, strengthening or weakening of the dollar. You know the dollar has sort of backed up a little bit, which is helping. Now we're getting an ancillary benefit. Europe now is a decent chunk of our business and arrivals, with the weakening of the pound over time and these other things that are going on, you've seen that's part of the reason you're seeing Europe surge and have such strength and why it's an expectation of being, performance-wise, above the high end of our guidance ranges. So we do pick some of it back up over there now. As Kevin mentioned in his remarks, it's about 5% of our system-wide business. So it moving, obviously, being positive is always better, but these types of movements that we're talking about don't have a material impact on the bottom line results and certainly don't have any material impact on our ability to drive cash flow.

如果你看一下更廣泛的趨勢，有趣的是，去年國際——國際遊客的收入下降了約 3%。因此，由於多種原因，它被取消了。我想說去年主要是美元的強勢，也許還有一點是選舉後發生的事情。但選舉後剩下的時間不多了，所以我認為主要是美元。如果你看一下第一季的數據，這顯然是我們目前掌握的唯一數據，國際入境業務的收入實際上有所上升。我的意思是，不是很多。我的意思是，漲幅基本上持平至 1%。但世界各地的情況並不一致。如果你看一下——如果你把世界分開，你會發現它是從加拿大和亞太地區開始的。它從墨西哥向下，從中東向下。我認為，部分與政治上正在發生的一些事情有關，其中的網絡是有點上升。我認為，考慮到美元目前的狀況以及正在發生的其他一些事情，我們預計今年全年國際業務將會略有下降，也許大約是這樣——儘管它有所上升第一季的情況可能與去年差不多。現在，很多事情都可能發生並改變這個結果，即美元走強或走弱。你知道美元有所回升，這很有幫助。現在我們得到了一個附帶的好處。歐洲現在在我們的業務和入境旅客中佔據了相當大的份額，隨著時間的推移，英鎊的疲軟以及其他正在發生的事情，你已經看到，這就是你看到歐洲激增並擁有如此實力的部分原因，以及為什麼從業績角度來看，我們期望高於我們指導範圍的高端。所以我們現在確實在那邊挑了一些。正如 Kevin 在演講中提到的，這約占我們全系統業務的 5%。因此，顯然，積極的變化總是更好，但我們正在談論的這些類型的變化不會對底線結果產生重大影響，當然也不會對我們推動現金的能力產生任何重大影響流動。

The next question will come from Michael Bellisario of Baird.

下一個問題將來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的邁克爾貝利薩裡奧 (Michael Bellisario)。

We haven't touched on the credit card yet, which sounds like it could be a nice catalyst. Could you provide an update on where you stand with those negotiations? And then how we should maybe think about the potential upside to earnings if and when that deal gets inked?

我們還沒有觸及信用卡，這聽起來可能是個很好的催化劑。您能否提供這些談判的最新立場？那麼，如果該交易簽署，我們應該如何考慮獲利的潛在上漲空間？

Yes, we -- I think we talked about it a little bit on the last call. And the update is that we are still in our process. We went out and we did an RFP. I think the good news is we're nearing the end of that process. I am hopeful that we're actually going to be able to get it done in the second quarter. We're in fairly advanced stages of negotiations. So I'm not going to be able to give you any sense of where it's going to end up because we're not done. I will say at a high level, I think it's going to be very good for everybody involved, meaning I think it's going to be great for our customers because we're going to create a customer value proposition that's far better than what we have today, which I think ultimately is good for them and will help us drive incremental share. It's going to be great for our overall system in terms of driving more business into the system. And it's going to be great for us in the sense of driving more fees from that segment of our business. I know you'd like to know what it is, but it's not done. And so I'm going to stop there. And when we get it done, we'll give you a little bit better sense of it.

是的，我們——我想我們在上次通話中對此進行了一些討論。最新消息是我們仍在進行中。我們出去做了一個 RFP。我認為好消息是我們已經接近這個過程的結束。我希望我們能夠在第二季完成這項工作。我們正處於談判的相當後期階段。所以我無法讓你知道事情的結局，因為我們還沒完成。我想說的是，我認為這對每個參與者都非常有利，這意味著我認為這對我們的客戶來說非常有利，因為我們將創造一個比我們今天更好的客戶價值主張，我認為這最終對他們有好處，並將幫助我們推動增量份額。就推動更多業務進入系統而言，這對我們的整個系統來說將是非常好的。從我們該業務領域收取更多費用的意義上來說，這對我們來說是件好事。我知道你想知道它是什麼，但還沒完成。我就到此為止。當我們完成它時，我們會讓您更好地理解它。

The next question will come from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

下一個問題將來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的比爾·克勞。

Chris, I was looking at the lodging econometrics report last week on the U.S. pipelines. And what struck me was that out of your I think it's 1,250 or so hotels that are in the pipeline, so few of those are traditional full-service Conrad, Waldorf, the Hilton brand, DoubleTree...

克里斯，我上週正在查看有關美國管道的住宿計量經濟學報告。讓我印象深刻的是，我認為大約有 1,250 家酒店正在籌建中，其中很少有傳統的全方位服務康萊德酒店、華爾道夫酒店、希爾頓品牌酒店、逸林酒店…

You're talking about the U.S.?

你說的是美國嗎？

I'm sorry? U.S., yes, U.S. And what I'm wondering is, how do you think about the aging stock of traditional full-service hotels, whether that opens the door for more nontraditional competition? And how that may shift your fee income over a longer-term basis as you're more dependent upon select service hotels than you are full-service hotels going forward?

對不起？美國，是的，我想知道的是，您如何看待傳統全方位服務酒店的老化庫存，這是否為更多非傳統競爭打開了大門？由於未來您對精選服務飯店的依賴程度超過對全方位服務飯店的依賴，這會如何長期改變您的費用收入？

Yes, I think if you look -- Bill, it's a great question. If you look at our pipeline and compare it to any of the major competitors, so you look at the overall numbers across the entire U.S. system, you're seeing the bulk of the development go on in the limited service space. There's a real simple reason for it. You and I both, and I think everybody knows it, and that is that's where the demand growth is, that's where the economics work, and that's why owners are investing money to build new properties in those segments because they're getting the returns there. And when you look at the cost to build and operate and the cost to build new construction for full service and luxury, it works in a few places, but it doesn't work in many. I mean, we have a bunch of stuff going on. I think we have more luxury stuff going on in the U.S. than anybody. We just opened a Conrad in Chicago. We're getting -- we're under construction in D.C. The Waldorf Beverly Hills is going to open next month. I mean, if you add up what we've got going on in the U.S. in luxury, probably, I think more than anybody, upper upscale, we're doing great relative to our competitive set. there's just not a lot of it going on because it's not just justified because construction costs continued to go up throughout the great -- after the great recession and through now, in a way where it makes it in most markets, quite difficult. Having said that, in terms of our existing stock of hotels, we're very focused, and have been, on making sure that we're keeping those up to snuff.

是的，我想如果你看看——比爾，這是一個很好的問題。如果你看看我們的管道並將其與任何主要競爭對手進行比較，那麼你看看整個美國系統的總體數字，你會發現大部分的開發都是在有限的服務空間中進行。這有一個非常簡單的原因。你和我，我想每個人都知道這一點，這就是需求成長的地方，這就是經濟學發揮作用的地方，這就是業主投資在這些領域建造新房產的原因，因為他們在那裡獲得了回報。當你考慮建造和運營的成本以及為全方位服務和豪華而建造新建築的成本時，你會發現它在某些地方有效，但在許多地方不起作用。我的意思是，我們有很多事情正在進行。我認為美國的奢侈品比任何人都多。我們剛剛在芝加哥開了一家康萊德酒店。我們正在華盛頓特區建設中。我的意思是，如果你把我們在美國奢侈品行業的情況加起來，我認為，相對於我們的競爭對手，我們可能比任何人都做得更好。發生的事情並不多，因為這不僅是合理的，因為在整個大蕭條之後以及現在，建築成本持續上漲，這使得在大多數市場上變得相當困難。話雖如此，就我們現有的酒店庫存而言，我們非常專注並且一直致力於確保我們保持這些酒店的品質。

So in the end, while we're not -- this development cycle doesn't involve a ton of upper upscale and luxury for us, or anybody, by the way, it doesn't mean that we're not cycling through and being very thoughtful about the existing products we have, whether that be DoubleTree, Hilton, Embassy or above in making sure that we're doing everything we need to do to make sure that the product is relevant and that it ultimately can be competitive. And so I feel great about what we've been doing in the capital investment side with our owners, because particularly now, post-spin, this is not -- we are not the owner of anything in the U.S. market. But if you go around and look at what's opening, you go around and look at what we're refurbishing around the country, I feel really good about it. But this is just -- this is a phenomenon that's driven by underlying economics. And I'm not going to say that at some point -- and you're eventually going to get back into full-service and luxury development at a larger scale. I don't know if it's in this cycle, though, because I don't see economics that, on a wholesale basis, are going to support it for some time.

所以最後，雖然我們不是——這個開發週期並不涉及我們或任何人的大量高檔和奢侈品，順便說一句，這並不意味著我們不會循環並被我們對我們現有的產品非常深思熟慮，無論是逸林、希​​爾頓、大使館還是以上產品，以確保我們正在盡一切努力確保產品具有相關性並最終具有競爭力。因此，我對我們在資本投資方面與我們的所有者所做的事情感到非常高興，因為特別是現在，在分拆後，我們不是美國市場上任何東西的所有者。但如果你四處看看正在開業的地方，看看我們在全國各地翻新的地方，我對此感覺非常好。但這只是一種由基本經濟驅動的現象。我不會在某個時候這麼說——你最終會回到更大規模的全方位服務和豪華開發領域。不過，我不知道它是否在這個週期中，因為我認為從整體來看，經濟不會在一段時間內支持它。

Again, selectively, it's being supported, because we're obviously doing some of it and so our competitors. But wholesale, I think the game is in limited service. And I think that's an important nuance to our model, because I know there's noise out in the market from competitors and the like. It's like, I think in the end, our model's a capital-light model, and ultimately, we're trying to serve customers. And the way we serve customers is giving them the products they want in the locations they want it with service delivery that is in keeping with the particular price point that they're willing to pay for. And given that we're not investing, we're investing -- it's third parties investing this capital, what we're doing around the world is following demand patterns, and the capital is following that demand pattern. And so in the U.S., that means a lot of limited service. By the way, around the world, that means a lot of limited service. That doesn't mean that we're not going to do tons of luxury and upper upscale and all those things. It just means that with a growing middle class around the world, a huge amount in the next 5 or 10 or 20 years of demand growth is going to be in the mid-market. And by the way, I am very proud to say, we are really happy to serve the mid-market, particularly given that every time we add one, it's 100% margin and an infinite yield. So the more we do, the more money we make and the more money you make and the better we serve our customers and the greater network effect that we create. Again, that's not to say we're not going to do tons of Hiltons and Embassys and DoubleTrees and Conrads and Waldorfs. We're going to do those, too, when the economic rationale supports it and we can deliver for owners returns commensurate with their investment.

再次，有選擇地，它得到了支持，因為我們顯然正在做其中的一些事情，我們的競爭對手也是如此。但總的來說，我認為該遊戲的服務有限。我認為這對我們的模型來說是一個重要的細微差別，因為我知道市場上有來自競爭對手等的噪音。我認為最終，我們的模式是輕資本模式，最終，我們正在努力為客戶服務。我們服務客戶的方式是在他們想要的地點為他們提供他們想要的產品，並提供符合他們願意支付的特定價格點的服務。鑑於我們不是在投資，我們是在投資——是第三方投資這些資本，我們在世界各地所做的就是遵循需求模式，而資本也遵循這種需求模式。因此在美國，這意味著很多有限的服務。順便說一句，在世界各地，這意味著很多有限的服務。這並不意味著我們不會做大量的奢華和高檔產品以及所有這些事情。這只是意味著，隨著全球中產階級的不斷壯大，未來 5 年、10 年或 20 年的需求成長將有大量來自中端市場。順便說一句，我非常自豪地說，我們真的很高興為中端市場提供服務，特別是考慮到每次我們添加一個，它都是 100% 的利潤和無限的收益率。因此，我們做得越多，我們賺的錢就越多，您賺的錢也就越多，我們為客戶提供的服務就越好，我們創造的網路效應就越大。再說一遍，這並不是說我們不會開設大量的希爾頓酒店、大使館酒店、逸林酒店、康萊德酒店和華爾道夫酒店。當經濟理由支持並且我們可以為業主提供與其投資相稱的回報時，我們也會這樣做。

The next question will be from Rich Hightower of Evercore.

下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Rich Hightower。

Just 2 quick follow-ups on the capital return side is, first of all, in terms of repurchases and not being included in EPS guidance for the year, is there a technical reason for that, since we kind of sort of already know what the number's going to be?

關於資本回報方面的兩個快速後續行動是，首先，在回購方面，不包括在今年的每股盈餘指導中，這是否有技術原因，因為我們已經知道了數字會是？

Yes, it's just -- Rich, it's just a standard that we decided to take. You don't know at what price you're going to buy back, so why guess the share count going forward. There's nothing more to it than that.

是的，這只是－－Rich，這只是我們決定採用的一個標準。你不知道將以什麼價格回購，所以為什麼要猜測未來的股票數量？除此之外，沒有什麼其他的了。

All right. Clear enough. And then second one on -- back to the dividend policy question. To the extent tax reform does happen and the rates on dividend income change, would that in theory potentially change your dividend policy? Or would you seek to kind of keep the payout roughly the same and the balance with buybacks as you have [described]?

好的。夠清楚了。然後是第二個問題——回到股利政策問題。如果稅改確實發生且股利收入率發生變化，理論上這是否會改變您的股利政策？或者，您會像您[描述的]那樣尋求保持支出大致相同以及回購平衡？

I think the idea is we'll keep it roughly the same unless something really radical happens. I would never say never. We want to be intelligent depending on what happens in the world. But based on everything we're hearing that is possible in terms of outcome, it doesn't -- it would not change our philosophy on the dividend.

我認為我們的想法是，除非發生真正激進的事情，否則我們將保持大致相同。我永遠不會說永遠不會。我們希望根據世界上發生的事情變得聰明。但根據我們所聽到的一切可能的結果，它不會——它不會改變我們對股利的看法。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to hand the conference back over to Chris Nassetta for his closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給克里斯·納塞塔（Chris Nassetta）作閉幕詞。

Thanks, everybody, again, for joining us this morning. It's great to be in our new simplified model reporting here in the first quarter and I think with really solid results. We appreciate the time and attention and all the great questions and look forward to catching up with you after the second quarter. Take care.

再次感謝大家今天早上加入我們。很高興在第一季出現在我們新的簡化模型報告中，我認為結果非常可靠。我們感謝您的時間和關注以及所有重要的問題，並期待在第二季後與您聯繫。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。