家得寶 (HD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to The Home Depot Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

各位好，歡迎參加家得寶（The Home Depot）2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Isabel Janci. Please go ahead.

提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人 Isabel Janci。請開始。

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Home Depot's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call. Joining us on our call today are Ted Decker, Chair, President and CEO; Ann-Marie Campbell, Senior Executive Vice President; Billy Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; and Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. (Operator Instructions) If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations department at (770) 384-2387.

謝謝你，Christine，各位早安。歡迎參加家得寶 2023 年第四季及 2023 會計年度財報電話會議。今天與會者包括：董事長、總裁暨執行長 Ted Decker；資深執行副總裁 Ann-Marie Campbell；商品採購執行副總裁 Billy Bastek；以及執行副總裁暨財務長 Richard McPhail。（接線員指示）若我們在會議中無法回答您的問題，請致電投資人關係部門：(770) 384-2387。

Before I turn the call over to Ted, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives, include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentations will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website.

在我把電話交給 Ted 之前，先提醒各位：今日新聞稿以及本公司主管所作之簡報，包含《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法》（Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995）所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果與我們的預期與推估有重大差異。相關風險與不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿及我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）申報文件中所揭露之因素。今日簡報亦將包含若干非 GAAP 指標；其調節表已於我們網站提供。

Now let me turn the call over to Ted.

現在我把電話交給 Ted。

Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. As you'll hear from the team shortly, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 was largely in line with our expectations. For fiscal 2023, sales were $152.7 billion, down 3% from the prior year. Comp sales declined 3.2% versus last year, and our U.S. stores had negative comps of 3.5%. Diluted earnings per share were $15.11, compared to $16.69 in the prior year.

謝謝你，Isabel，各位早安。各位稍後將聽到團隊的說明，2023 會計年度第四季的表現大致符合我們的預期。2023 會計年度營收為 1,527 億美元，較前一年下降 3%。同店銷售較去年下降 3.2%，而我們美國門市同店銷售為負 3.5%。稀釋後每股盈餘為 15.11 美元，較前一年的 16.69 美元下降。

After 3 years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation. It was also a year of opportunity. We focused on several operational improvements to strengthen the business, while also staying true to the growth opportunities detailed at our investor conference in June. As we reflect on 2023, we are better positioned in 4 key areas. We invested in our associates, the heartbeat of our company and the stewards of customer service; effectively manage this inflation while maintaining a strong value proposition for our customers; rightsized our inventory position and increased in-stock and on-shelf availability levels; and we reduced fixed costs in the business that were introduced during the pandemic.

在我們的業務經歷連續 3 年的卓越成長後，2023 年是成長趨於溫和的一年，但同時也是充滿機會的一年。我們聚焦於多項營運改善以強化業務，同時也持續落實我們在 6 月投資人會議中所闡述的成長機會。回顧 2023 年，我們在四個關鍵面向具備更佳的定位：我們投資於同仁——他們是公司的核心，也是客戶服務的守護者；在維持對客戶強勁價值主張的同時，有效管理通膨；調整至更適當的庫存水位，並提升現貨與貨架可得性；以及降低疫情期間導入的固定成本。

As you know, at the beginning of 2023, we announced an approximately $1 billion investment in increased annualized compensation for our frontline hourly associates. This allowed us to improve customer service, position ourselves favorably in the market, attract and retain the most qualified talent, drive greater efficiency and productivity across the business and improve safely broadly. We also navigated a unique disinflationary environment. We did this by leveraging our best-in-class cost finance team in merchants to effectively manage cost movements while also being our customers' advocate for value. And we believe prices have essentially settled in the marketplace.

各位知道，在 2023 年初，我們宣布約 10 億美元的投資，用於提高第一線計時制同仁的年化薪酬。這使我們得以提升客戶服務、在市場上建立更有利的競爭位置、吸引並留任最合適的人才、推動全公司更高的效率與生產力，並全面改善安全表現。我們也因應了獨特的通膨降溫環境。我們透過一流的成本與財務團隊以及商品採購團隊，來有效管理成本變動，同時站在客戶立場為其爭取價值。我們認為市場價格基本上已趨於穩定。

After several years of unprecedented sales growth, we entered 2023 with more inventory than we would have preferred. While the products we sell have low obsolescence, our teams worked throughout the year to improve inventory productivity while delivering the highest in-stock and on-shelf availability rates since the pandemic. Today, we feel very good about our inventory position heading into 2024. Productivity and efficiency are hallmarks of The Home Depot. And as you heard at our investor conference in June, we announced our commitment to reduce fixed costs by approximately $500 million to be fully realized in 2024. We've now taken the necessary actions to achieve this cost benefit, which Richard will detail in a moment.

在經歷數年空前的銷售成長後，我們在進入 2023 年時的庫存高於我們理想水準。雖然我們所販售的產品汰舊風險較低，但團隊在全年持續提升庫存生產力，同時達成自疫情以來最高的現貨與貨架可得性水準。如今，我們對 2024 年的庫存狀況感到非常滿意。生產力與效率是家得寶的核心特質。正如各位在 6 月投資人會議中所聽到的，我們承諾將固定成本降低約 5 億美元，並在 2024 年完全體現。我們目前已採取必要行動以達成此成本效益，Richard 稍後將進一步說明。

As we look forward to 2024, we remain focused on our strategic opportunities of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our Pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities and building new stores. In December 2023, we made a strategic acquisition of Construction Resources, a leading distributor of design-oriented surfaces, appliances and architectural specialty products for Pro contractors focused on renovation, remodeling and residential homebuilding. This acquisition adds to our robust product offering of products and services. It allows our complex Pros to easily shop across aesthetic product categories in a showroom setting, which is how they are accustomed to shopping for these types of goods. We are excited to welcome Construction Resources into The Home Depot family.

展望 2024 年，我們仍聚焦於策略性機會：打造最佳的互聯式體驗（interconnected experience）、透過我們獨特的能力生態系提升專業客戶（Pro）的錢包占比，以及開設新店。2023 年 12 月，我們策略性收購 Construction Resources——一家領先的設計導向表面材料、家電與建築專業產品的經銷商，服務以翻新、改裝與住宅建築為主的專業承包商（Pro）。此收購強化了我們既有的產品與服務組合，讓需求更複雜的 Pro 客戶能在展示間情境中，輕鬆跨多個美學產品類別選購，這也符合他們一向購買此類商品的方式。我們很高興歡迎 Construction Resources 加入家得寶大家庭。

In 2024, we will continue learning and building out new capabilities for the complex Pro. We are expanding our assortments, fulfillment options and our outside sales force and just recently began piloting trade credit options. In addition, we continue to work on new order management capabilities to better manage complex Pro orders. For the complex Pro opportunity, this means that by the end of 2024, we will have 17 of our top Pro markets equipped with new fulfillment options, localized product assortment and expanded sales force and enhanced digital capabilities, with trade credit and order management in pilot for development.

2024 年，我們將持續學習並建置更多面向複雜型 Pro 客戶的新能力。我們正在擴充商品組合、履約選項與外勤銷售團隊，並且近期已開始試點（pilot）行業信用（trade credit）方案。此外，我們也持續推動新的訂單管理能力，以更好地管理複雜型 Pro 訂單。就複雜型 Pro 的機會而言，至 2024 年底，我們將在 17 個主要 Pro 市場導入新的履約選項、在地化商品組合與擴增的銷售團隊，以及強化的數位能力；同時，行業信用與訂單管理將以試點方式進行開發。

What I hope you take away today is how great we feel about our business and how well we are positioning the business for the future. We remain excited about the opportunity to grow our share of a fragmented $950 billion-plus market. Our associates and supplier partners have continually demonstrated agility and resilience, and I want to thank them for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities.

我希望各位今天的重點收穫是：我們對自身業務的狀態感到非常有信心，也正積極為未來做好布局。我們仍對在一個高度分散、規模超過 9,500 億美元的市場中提升市占的機會感到振奮。我們的同仁與供應商夥伴持續展現敏捷與韌性，我要感謝他們辛勤付出，致力於服務我們的客戶與社區。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Ann.

接下來，我想把電話交給 Ann。

Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. I can't be more pleased with our operational excellence and the investments we continue to make in the business. As you heard from Ted, we remain focused on 3 main strategic opportunities of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our Pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities and building new stores. As we continue to create the best interconnected experience and remove friction from our customers' shopping journey, one of our biggest areas of opportunity is within our post-sale experience. For the majority of our customers, this process has largely been unchanged for the last 44 years, and we have opportunities to improve this experience.

謝謝你，Ted，各位早安。我對我們的卓越營運，以及我們持續對業務所做的投資感到非常滿意。正如 Ted 所提到的，我們仍聚焦於三大策略性機會：打造最佳的互聯式體驗、透過我們獨特的能力生態系提升 Pro 的錢包占比，以及開設新店。隨著我們持續打造最佳互聯式體驗並降低客戶購物旅程中的摩擦，我們最大的機會之一在於售後體驗。對多數客戶而言，這個流程在過去 44 年幾乎沒有改變，而我們有機會改善這段體驗。

In 2023, we made significant progress taking friction out of our online order management process. Today, we have enhanced our systems to better allow our customers to both modify orders and self-service online returns. In 2024, we will focus on building more robust capabilities to support an interconnected self-service returns process, where customers will have the ability to start a return online and complete that return via mail or in-store. We have just begun all of this work in earnest and are very excited about the friction we will remove through this process, while realizing significant productivity benefits over the long term. Through these enhancements and new capabilities in our returns process, we gain efficiencies by reducing transaction time and improving on-shelf availability, enabling better inventory management.

2023 年，我們在降低線上訂單管理流程摩擦方面取得重大進展。如今，我們已強化系統，使客戶能更方便地修改訂單並在線上自助辦理退貨。2024 年，我們將聚焦於建置更健全的能力，以支援互聯式的自助退貨流程：客戶可在線上發起退貨，並透過郵寄或到店完成退貨。我們才剛正式全面啟動這些工作，對於透過此流程所能消除的摩擦感到非常期待，同時也將在長期實現顯著的生產力效益。藉由退貨流程的強化與新能力，我們可透過縮短交易時間並提升貨架可得性來提升效率，進而促進更佳的庫存管理。

We also improved customer service by allowing the customer to start and complete their return, however they want. As you've heard us say many times, we are focused on making our interconnected experience better and more convenient no matter how our customers choose to engage with us. As we mentioned at our investor conference in June, we plan to open approximately 80 new stores over the next 5 years. Our current network of over 2,300 stores throughout North America makes The Home Depot the most convenient physical destination for customers to shop for their home improvement products. We have a premier real estate footprint that provides convenience for the customer that we believe is nearly impossible to replicate. And we will continue to build out this footprint in a very strategic way by investing in new stores in areas that have experienced significant population growth or where it makes sense to relieve some pressure on existing high-volume stores.

我們也透過讓客戶能以其偏好的方式開始並完成退貨，來提升客戶服務。正如我們多次提到的，無論客戶選擇以何種方式與我們互動，我們都致力於讓互聯式體驗更好、更便利。正如我們在 6 月投資人會議中所提到的，我們計畫在未來 5 年內新開約 80 家門市。我們目前在北美擁有超過 2,300 家門市的網絡，使家得寶成為客戶購買居家修繕產品最便利的實體目的地。我們擁有頂尖的不動產據點布局，為客戶帶來的便利性，我們認為幾乎難以被複製。我們也將以非常策略性的方式持續擴展此布局，投資於人口顯著成長的地區新店，或在適當情況下透過新店分擔既有高銷量門市的壓力。

In fiscal 2023, we opened 13 new stores, 8 in the U.S. and 5 in Mexico. In the U.S., our 8 new stores were roughly split between stores, relieving pressure from higher-volume existing stores and stores where we identified void in new high-growth areas. As an example, we are already seeing great results for many of these new stores and are particularly pleased with our Mapunapuna store in Honolulu, which allows us to better serve the Honolulu market.

在 2023 會計年度，我們新開 13 家門市，其中 8 家在美國、5 家在墨西哥。在美國，我們的 8 家新店大致各半：一部分用於分擔既有高銷量門市的壓力，另一部分則設於我們在新興高成長區域所辨識出的市場空白地帶。以例而言，我們已在多家新店看到很好的成果，並且對檀香山的 Mapunapuna 門市特別滿意，該店讓我們能更好地服務檀香山市場。

For fiscal 2024, we plan to open approximately 12 new stores. Beyond our focus on removing friction and growing through new stores, we have a lot of initiatives in 2024 geared at growing our share of wallet with the Pro. My new organization will be focused on better enabling alignment so we can more seamlessly deliver on our unique value proposition for all Pros. When we invest in new assets and capabilities to better serve the complex Pro, this also improves our Pro experience in our stores.

在2024會計年度，我們計劃新開約12家門市。除了專注於消除摩擦並透過新門市成長之外，我們在2024年也有許多旨在提升Pro客戶錢包占有率的計畫。我的新組織將著重於更好地促進協同一致，使我們能更無縫地為所有Pro客戶交付我們獨特的價值主張。當我們投資於新的資產與能力，以更好地服務需求複雜的Pro客戶時，也會同步改善他們在門市中的Pro體驗。

For example, more job site delivery orders fulfilled from our distribution centers means less congestion in our stores and less time dedicated to picking, packing and staging orders for delivery. This gives our in-store Pro sales associates more time to dedicate to our Pros. Additionally, the ability to fulfill large orders through our distribution network also means that we have more product in-stock and available for sale for all those Pros shopping in our stores. These improvements benefit our associates and all of our Pros.

例如，更多由我們配送中心履行的工地配送訂單，意味著門市內的擁擠情況更少，且用於揀貨、包裝與備貨以進行配送的時間也更少。這讓我們門市內的Pro銷售專員能投入更多時間服務Pro客戶。此外，透過我們的配送網路履行大型訂單的能力，也意味著我們有更多商品保持在庫並可供所有在門市購物的Pro客戶購買。這些改善將使我們的同仁以及所有Pro客戶受益。

Our investments in these strategic initiatives as well as the investments in our associates has set us up for success. Recall that at the beginning of the year, we announced a significant investment of approximately $1 billion in increased annualized compensation for frontline hourly associates. As a result of this investment, we saw what we intended to see: meaningful improvement in our attrition rates, particularly among our most tenured associates, which drove improved customer service, productivity and safety. I'm excited to see all of our initiatives gaining traction, and I want to thank our amazing associates for all that they do.

我們在這些策略性計畫上的投資，以及對同仁的投資，已讓我們具備成功的條件。回顧年初，我們宣布對第一線計時同仁的年度化薪酬增加進行約10億美元的重大投資。由於這項投資，我們看到了預期的成果：離職率顯著改善，尤其是在任期最長的同仁之中，進而帶動客戶服務、生產力與安全性的提升。我很高興看到我們所有的計畫都在取得進展，也要感謝我們優秀的同仁所付出的一切。

With that, let me turn the call over to Billy.

接下來，我把電話會議交給Billy。

Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by also thanking all of our associates and supplier partners for their ongoing commitment to serving our customers and communities. As you heard from Ted, during the fourth quarter, our sales were largely in line with our expectations. However, we did have some unfavorable impacts from weather in January and core commodity deflation. We saw a continuation of the trend that we've been observing throughout the year, with softness in certain big-ticket, discretionary-type purchases. Our customers continue to take on smaller projects while still deferring larger projects.

謝謝你，Ann，各位早安。我也想先感謝我們所有同仁與供應商夥伴，持續致力於服務我們的顧客與社區。正如你們從Ted那裡聽到的，在第四季，我們的銷售大致符合預期。然而，我們在1月受到天氣與核心大宗商品通縮的一些不利影響。我們看到今年以來一直觀察到的趨勢延續：某些高單價、偏選擇性消費的購買出現疲軟。我們的顧客仍持續進行較小型的專案，同時延後較大型的專案。

Turning to our department comp performance for the fourth quarter. Our building materials and outdoor garden departments posted positive comps, and 6 of our remaining 12 merchandising departments posted comps above the company average, including appliances, plumbing, tools, paint, indoor garden and hardware. During the fourth quarter, our comp transactions decreased 2.1% and comp average ticket decreased 1.3%. However, we continue to see our customers trading up for new and innovative products. Deflation from core commodity categories negatively impacted our average ticket by 35 basis points during the fourth quarter, driven by deflation in lumber and copper wire.

接著談第四季各部門的同店銷售（comp）表現。我們的建材與戶外園藝部門同店銷售為正；其餘12個商品部門中，有6個部門的同店銷售高於公司平均，包括家電、管路、工具、油漆、室內園藝與五金。第四季，同店交易筆數下降2.1%，同店平均客單價下降1.3%。然而，我們仍持續看到顧客在新穎與創新產品上進行升級購買。核心大宗商品類別的通縮在第四季使平均客單價受到35個基點的負面影響，主要由木材與銅線的通縮所致。

During the fourth quarter, we continued to see, on average, a decline in lumber prices relative to a year ago. However, framing and panel lumber pricing experienced the most stable pricing levels during the quarter in some time. As an example, framing lumber started the quarter at approximately $370 per thousand board feet compared to ending the quarter at approximately $395, representing a change of less than 7%. Big-ticket comp transactions, or those over $1,000, were down 6.9% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. We continued to see softer engagement in big-ticket discretionary categories like flooring, countertops and cabinets.

在第四季，我們平均仍看到木材價格相較一年前下滑。然而，結構用材與板材用材的價格在本季呈現一段時間以來最穩定的水準。舉例而言，結構用材在本季初約為每千板英尺370美元，季末約為395美元，變動幅度不到7%。高單價同店交易（即超過1,000美元者）較去年第四季下降6.9%。我們仍看到在地板、檯面與櫥櫃等高單價、偏選擇性品類上的參與度較為疲弱。

During the fourth quarter, our Pro and DIY customers performance was relatively in line with one another. While internal and external surveys suggest that Pro backlogs are lower than they were a year ago, they have remained stable and elevated relative to historical norms.

在第四季，我們的Pro與DIY顧客表現彼此相對一致。雖然內外部調查顯示Pro客戶的在手訂單（backlog）低於一年前，但相較於歷史常態仍維持穩定且偏高。

Turning to total company online sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 2% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. We continue to enhance our digital customer experience with a number of new capabilities, including an enhanced browsing experience featuring the bestsellers in a local market and new product discovery zones, which highlights what's trending based on new and highly rated products. For those customers that transacted with us online during the fourth quarter, nearly half of our online orders were fulfilled through our stores. During the fourth quarter, we hosted our annual decorative holiday, Gift Center and Black Friday events. We saw strong engagement across all these events with our decorative holiday event posting a record sales year.

接著談全公司線上銷售。透過我們數位平台帶動的銷售，較去年第四季增加約2%。我們持續以多項新功能強化數位顧客體驗，包括強化的瀏覽體驗（呈現當地市場暢銷商品）以及新的產品探索專區，根據新品與高評分商品凸顯目前的熱門趨勢。對於第四季透過線上與我們交易的顧客而言，近一半的線上訂單由我們的門市履行。第四季期間，我們舉辦了年度裝飾節慶活動、Gift Center與黑色星期五活動；這些活動的參與度皆表現強勁，其中裝飾節慶活動更創下銷售紀錄年。

As Ted mentioned, 2023 marked a year of significant progress for our inventory management and on-shelf availability, while effectively navigating a disinflationary pricing environment and maintaining our position as the customers' advocate for value. Today, we are in a great position regarding our inventory levels. Our in-stocks are the best they've been in a number of years, and we are delivering a compelling assortment for our customers' home improvement needs.

如Ted所提，2023年是我們在庫存管理與貨架可得性方面取得重大進展的一年；同時，我們有效因應價格去通膨的環境，並維持作為顧客價值倡議者的定位。目前，我們的庫存水位處於非常良好的狀態。我們的到貨率（in-stocks）是多年來最佳水準，並為顧客的居家改善需求提供具吸引力的商品組合。

We are looking forward to the year ahead, particularly with the spring selling season right around the corner, and we have a great lineup of new and innovative products from live goods to outdoor power equipment. We're excited to expand our offering of Pro outdoor tools with the launch of our new cordless battery-powered Milwaukee M18 Backpack Blower and straight-shaft trimmer, broadening our assortment for the Pro landscaper. And our spring Gift Center event continues to lean into cordless technology with a wide variety of products from RYOBI, Milwaukee, Makita and DEWALT, many of which are exclusive to The Home Depot and the big-box retail channel.

我們期待接下來的一年，尤其春季銷售旺季近在眼前；我們也準備了從活體植栽到戶外動力設備等一系列全新且創新的產品。我們很高興推出全新的無線電池式Milwaukee M18背負式吹葉機與直桿修剪機，擴大我們面向Pro客戶的戶外工具供應，進一步豐富專業景觀承包商的商品組合。而我們的春季Gift Center活動也持續聚焦無線技術，提供來自RYOBI、Milwaukee、Makita與DEWALT的多樣化產品，其中許多為The Home Depot及大型賣場零售通路獨家。

We're also excited about our live goods program. Each year, our merchants partner with our national and regional growers to provide our customers with new and improved varieties to enhance the overall garden experience. We've made significant investments in partnership with our growers to bring new varieties to our customers that are more disease-resistant, tolerant to different climates and require less watering. Investing in our relationships with our growers will allow us to continue to drive innovation to meet our customers' needs and improve their shopping experience while building loyalty to The Home Depot. As we look forward to spring, we're excited about continuing to provide a broad assortment of best-in-class products that are in-stock and available for our customers when and how they need it.

我們也對活體植栽（live goods）計畫感到振奮。每年，我們的採購團隊都會與全國及區域種植商合作，為顧客提供全新且改良的品種，以提升整體園藝體驗。我們與種植商夥伴共同進行了重大投資，為顧客帶來更耐病害、能適應不同氣候且需水量更少的新型品種。投資並深化與種植商的關係，將使我們能持續推動創新，以滿足顧客需求並改善其購物體驗，同時建立對The Home Depot的忠誠度。展望春季，我們很期待持續提供廣泛且同級最佳的產品組合，確保顧客在需要的時間與方式下，都能買到有庫存且可供應的商品。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Richard.

接下來，我想把電話會議交給Richard。

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, total sales were $34.8 billion, a decrease of 2.9% from last year. During the fourth quarter, our total company comps were negative 3.5% with comps of negative 2.5% in November, positive 1.1% in December and negative 8.5% in January. Comps in the U.S. were negative 4% for the quarter with comps of negative 2.7% in November, positive 0.6% in December and negative 9.1% in January. In local currency, Mexico and Canada posted comps above the company average with Mexico posting positive comps. It is important to note that adjusting for holiday shifts and weather-related impacts in January, monthly comps relatively consistent across the quarter.

謝謝你，Billy，各位早安。第四季總銷售額為348億美元，較去年下降2.9%。第四季全公司同店銷售為負3.5%，其中11月同店銷售為負2.5%、12月為正1.1%、1月為負8.5%。美國市場第四季同店銷售為負4%，其中11月為負2.7%、12月為正0.6%、1月為負9.1%。以當地貨幣計，墨西哥與加拿大的同店銷售高於公司平均，其中墨西哥同店銷售為正。需要特別指出的是，若調整假期時點變動與1月天氣相關影響，各月同店銷售在整個季度內相對一致。

For the year, our sales totaled $152.7 billion, a decrease of 3% versus fiscal 2022. For the year, total company comp sales decreased 3.2% and U.S. comp sales decreased 3.5%. In the fourth quarter, our gross margin was approximately 33.1%, a decrease of 20 basis points from last year. For the year, our gross margin was approximately 33.4%, a decrease of 15 basis points from last year, which was in line with our expectations. During the fourth quarter, operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased approximately 115 basis points to 21.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Our operating expense performance during the fourth quarter reflects our previously executed compensation increases for hourly associates as well as deleverage from our top line results. For the year, operating expenses were approximately 19.2% of sales, representing an increase of approximately 90 basis points from fiscal 2022. Our operating margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 11.9% and for the year was approximately 14.2%.

全年而言，我們的銷售總額為1,527億美元，較2022會計年度下降3%。全年全公司同店銷售下降3.2%，美國同店銷售下降3.5%。第四季毛利率約為33.1%，較去年下降20個基點。全年毛利率約為33.4%，較去年下降15個基點，符合我們的預期。第四季營業費用占銷售比重較2022年第四季增加約115個基點至21.2%。第四季營業費用表現反映了我們先前已執行的計時同仁薪酬調升，以及因營收表現所造成的槓桿不利（deleverage）。全年營業費用約占銷售的19.2%，較2022會計年度增加約90個基點。第四季營業利益率約為11.9%，全年約為14.2%。

Interest and other expense for the fourth quarter increased by $50 million to $458 million. In the fourth quarter and for fiscal 2023, our effective tax rate was 24%. Our diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.82, a decrease of 14.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2023 were $15.11, a decrease of 9.5% compared to fiscal 2022. At the end of the quarter, merchandise inventories were $21 billion, down $3.9 billion or approximately 16% versus last year, and inventory turns were 4.3x, up from 4.2x from the second period last year.

第四季利息及其他費用增加5,000萬美元至4.58億美元。第四季及2023會計年度，我們的有效稅率為24%。第四季稀釋每股盈餘為2.82美元，較2022年第四季下降14.5%。2023會計年度稀釋每股盈餘為15.11美元，較2022會計年度下降9.5%。季末商品存貨為210億美元，較去年減少39億美元或約16%，存貨週轉率為4.3倍，高於去年第二期的4.2倍。

Moving on to capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we invested approximately $860 million back into our business in the form of capital expenditures. This brings total capital expenditures for fiscal 2023 to approximately $3.2 billion. During the year, we opened 13 new stores, bringing our store count to 2,335 at the end of fiscal 2023. Retail selling square footage was approximately 242 million square feet and total sales per retail square foot were approximately $605 in fiscal 2023. Additionally, we invested approximately $1.5 billion on 3 acquisitions during fiscal 2023, accelerating our strategic initiatives and providing us with better capabilities to serve our customers.

接著談資本配置。第四季我們以資本支出形式回投約8.6億美元於業務。使2023會計年度資本支出總額約為32億美元。年度內我們新開13家門市，使2023會計年度期末門市數達2,335家。2023會計年度零售銷售面積約2.42億平方英尺，每零售平方英尺總銷售額約605美元。此外，我們於2023會計年度針對3項收購投入約15億美元，加速我們的策略性計畫，並提升服務客戶的能力。

During the year, we paid approximately $8.4 billion of dividends to our shareholders. Today, we announced our Board of Directors increased our quarterly dividend by 7.7% to $2.25 per share, which equates to an annual dividend of $9 per share. And finally, during fiscal 2023, we returned approximately $8 billion to our shareholders in the form of share repurchases, including $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was 36.7% compared to 44.6% at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022.

年度內，我們向股東支付約84億美元股利。今天，我們宣布董事會將季度股利提高7.7%至每股2.25美元，折合年股利為每股9美元。最後，2023會計年度我們以庫藏股回購形式向股東返還約80億美元，其中第四季為15億美元。以過去12個月期初與期末長期負債及權益的平均數計算，投入資本報酬率為36.7%，低於2022會計年度第四季期末的44.6%。

Now I'll comment on our outlook for 2024. First, let me point out that fiscal 2024 will include a 53rd week, so the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 will consist of 14 weeks. We will continue to report comps on a 52-week basis, but we will base our overall guidance on 53 weeks. As you heard from Ted, we feel great about the actions we took in 2023 to position us well heading into 2024. And while there are signs that the economy is on the way towards normalization, the home improvement market still faces headwinds as we look ahead to fiscal 2024.

接下來我將評論我們對2024年的展望。首先指出，2024會計年度將包含第53週，因此2024會計年度第四季將由14週構成。我們將持續以52週基礎報告同店銷售（comps），但整體指引將以53週為基礎。如同你從Ted那裡聽到的，我們對2023年採取的行動感到非常有信心，這些行動使我們在邁入2024年時具備良好定位。儘管有跡象顯示經濟正走向常態化，但展望2024會計年度，居家修繕市場仍面臨逆風。

We considered several factors that informed our outlook for fiscal 2024. On the positive side, we faced a number of pressures in fiscal 2023 that are unlikely to repeat in fiscal 2024. In 2023, we saw 4 increases in the Fed funds rate, a sharp decline in existing home sales and approximately 110 basis points of comp pressure from lumber deflation. However, we still expect pressures to our business in fiscal 2024. Personal consumption growth as measured by PCE is expected to decelerate compared to 2023. Our share of PCE also remains slightly elevated relative to 2019 and has been on a glide path towards 2019 levels. Higher interest rates at the beginning of 2024 relative to last year will likely continue to pressure demand for larger projects. And the effects from pull forward of demand during the pandemic as well as some project deferral could impact demand into 2024. As we consider these influences on home improvement demand, we are planning for a year of continued moderation but with slightly less pressure to comp sales than what we faced in fiscal 2023.

我們考量了數項影響2024會計年度展望的因素。正面而言，我們在2023會計年度面臨的多項壓力，於2024會計年度不太可能重演。2023年，我們看到聯準會基金利率4次上調、成屋銷售大幅下滑，以及木材通縮帶來約110個基點的同店銷售壓力。然而，我們仍預期2024會計年度業務將承受壓力。以PCE衡量的個人消費成長預期將較2023年放緩。我們在PCE中的占比相較2019年仍略為偏高，且正逐步回落至2019年水準。2024年初相較去年更高的利率，可能持續壓抑大型專案需求。此外，疫情期間需求提前釋放（pull forward）以及部分專案延後，可能影響2024年的需求。在考量這些對居家修繕需求的影響時，我們規劃今年將持續溫和降溫，但同店銷售所承受的壓力將略低於2023會計年度。

Our fiscal 2024 outlook is for total sales growth to outpace sales comp with sales growth of approximately positive 1% and comp sales of approximately negative 1% compared to fiscal 2023. Total sales growth will benefit from a 53rd week as well as from the acquisitions we made and the new stores we opened in fiscal 2023 and the stores we plan to open in fiscal 2024. We expect the 53rd week will contribute approximately $2.3 billion in sales. Our gross margin is expected to be approximately 33.9%, an increase of approximately 50 basis points compared to fiscal 2023. This primarily reflects a lower product and transportation cost environment relative to fiscal 2023 as well as benefits from a portion of the approximately $500 million in reduced fixed costs that we will realize in fiscal 2024.

我們對2024會計年度的展望為：總銷售成長將高於同店銷售表現，總銷售約成長1%，同店銷售約下滑1%，相較於2023會計年度。總銷售成長將受惠於第53週，以及我們在2023會計年度完成的收購與新開門市，並包含我們計畫於2024會計年度開設的門市。我們預期第53週將貢獻約23億美元銷售額。我們預期毛利率約為33.9%，較2023會計年度提高約50個基點。這主要反映相較2023會計年度較低的產品與運輸成本環境，以及我們在2024會計年度將實現約5億美元固定成本降低中的部分效益。

Further, we expect operating margin of approximately 14.1%. This reflects deleverage from sales and pressure from targeted incentive compensation, as we are overlapping lower incentive compensation paid than planned in 2023. This will be partially offset by the benefits from the approximately $500 million in fixed costs that we will realize in fiscal 2024 in both cost of goods sold and operating expenses. Our effective tax rate is targeted at approximately 24.5%. We expect net interest expense of approximately $1.8 billion. Our diluted earnings per share percent growth is targeted to be approximately 1% compared to fiscal 2023, with the extra week contributing approximately $0.30. We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2% of sales on an annual basis. After investing in our business and paying our dividend, it is our intent to return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. We believe we have positioned ourselves to meet the needs of our customers in any environment. The investments we've made in our business have enabled agility in our operating model. As we look forward, we will continue to invest to strengthen our position with our customers, leverage our scale and low-cost position to drive growth faster than the market and deliver shareholder value.

此外，我們預期營業利益率約為14.1%。這反映銷售帶來的槓桿不利（deleverage）以及目標性激勵薪酬的壓力，因為我們正與2023年實際支付低於原先規劃的激勵薪酬形成比較基期。上述影響將部分被我們在2024會計年度於銷貨成本與營業費用中實現的約5億美元固定成本效益所抵銷。我們的有效稅率目標約為24.5%。我們預期淨利息費用約18億美元。我們的稀釋每股盈餘年增率目標約為1%（相較2023會計年度），其中額外一週約貢獻0.30美元。我們計畫持續投資業務，年度資本支出約為銷售額的2%。在投資業務並支付股利後，我們的意圖是以庫藏股回購形式將多餘現金返還股東。我們相信已在任何環境下都能滿足客戶需求。我們對業務的投資使我們的營運模式更具敏捷性。展望未來，我們將持續投資以強化客戶端的競爭地位，運用規模與低成本優勢推動成長快於市場，並為股東創造價值。

Thank you for your participation in today's call. And Christine, we are now ready for questions.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。Christine，我們現在準備開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自Morgan Stanley的Simeon Gutman。

Can you -- my first question is how much of this minus 1% comp view is an industry view plus or minus share gain, I'm assuming plus, versus if you look at current purchasing trends? And Richard, you noted some of the, let's say, some of the less headwinds that you noted that you expect to face in 2023.

我想問——我的第一個問題是，這個同店銷售-1%的看法，有多少是產業觀點再加減市占變化（我猜是增加），相對於你們觀察到的當前採購趨勢？另外，Richard，你提到一些——比方說——你們預期在2023年面臨的逆風會比較少。

Sure. Yes, Simeon. In short, we expect that the macro pressures we called out to point towards low single-digit negative growth from improvement demand and then for us to outperform the market. And that's how we got to the negative 1% comp guide.

當然。是的，Simeon。簡而言之，我們預期我們指出的總體壓力將使居家修繕需求呈現低個位數的負成長，然後我們將優於市場表現。這就是我們得出同店銷售指引為-1%的原因。

And your second part of your question, Simeon?

那你問題的第二部分呢，Simeon？

I would -- I guess, that was the whole part of it. It was how much of it is a macro view versus like a forecast for housing plus market share versus you have less headwinds that you noted in the current year, plus you're combining that with how the consumer is behaving.

我——我想，那就是全部了。就是這當中有多少是總體觀點，相對於像是對房市的預測加上市占，或是你提到今年逆風較少，再加上你們把消費者行為的變化也納入考量。

Well, it's all taken as a whole. There are several cross-currents here. Again, we face macro headwinds, albeit at a lesser degree than we faced in 2023. And so again, just to quickly tick through them, PCE is expected to decelerate. We still have a slightly -- as a market, we have a slightly elevated share of PCE versus 2019. We know that, that has gradually receded since 2021. The interest rate environment is still one where while we see our customers have the means to spend, they are taking more of a deferral stance with respect to large project demand. And we believe there was some pull forward of certain spend during the period of 2020 to 2022 that we're working out.

嗯，我們是整體綜合考量的。這裡有幾股相互拉扯的力量。再說一次，我們面臨總體逆風，只是程度低於2023年。因此，快速列舉一下：PCE預期將放緩。整體市場在PCE中的占比相較2019年仍略為偏高。我們知道自2021年以來這個占比已逐步回落。利率環境仍是這樣：雖然我們看到客戶有能力支出，但在大型專案需求上，他們採取更偏向延後（deferral）的態度。我們也認為在2020到2022年期間，某些支出確實有提前釋放，而我們正在消化這部分影響。

Housing, it's a little hard to tease out. Obviously, home values have held in there. We now see home prices having appreciated by over 46% since 2019. Turnover has dropped sharply over the last 2 years, and that's a headwind possibly offset by some level of improvement play. So we're essentially neutral on housing short term. And so that's -- all of those have an impact on our market. And then as you said, we expect to gain share in any macro environment through our growth initiatives of Pro, the interconnected experience in new stores, and that takes us to our negative 1% comp outlook.

住房方面，確實有點難以拆解。顯然，房價一直撐得住。我們現在看到自 2019 年以來房價已上漲超過 46%。過去 2 年成交量大幅下滑，這是一個逆風，可能會被某種程度的改善型需求所抵銷。因此，我們對短期住房基本上持中性看法。而且——所有這些都會影響我們的市場。然後如你所說，我們預期在任何總體環境下，都能透過我們的成長計畫（Pro、在新店打造的互聯體驗）來提升市占，這也導向我們對同店銷售（comp）負 1% 的展望。

Fair enough. And then a follow-up, can we ask about the shape of the year? You lapped lumber deflation in the first part of the year, maybe some weather. So that should be better, but the second half is in theory post-interest rate cuts, maybe durables get a little bit better. So how should we think about it?

了解。接著追問一下，我們可以問一下全年走勢的形狀嗎？你們在上半年會遇到木材通縮的比較基期，可能還有一些天氣因素。所以那部分應該會比較好，但下半年理論上是在降息之後，也許耐久財會好一些。所以我們應該怎麼看？

Yes. So Simeon, lumber was actually a function more of a comparison to 2022 and 2023. If you compare the lumber charts, just I'd encourage you to pull it up, lumber prices were relatively steady across 2023. So we don't really see a material impact to 2024. With respect to '24, first, we expect a normal seasonal curve for our business. So there's really no seasonal shift in how we think about the halves. We anticipate the second half coming in slightly better than the first half, with both being negative, at least as implied in our guidance. It might help to recall the halves for 2023 were relatively in line with one another.

是的。所以 Simeon，木材其實更多是相對於 2022 與 2023 的比較因素。如果你去看木材價格走勢圖——我建議你拉出來看——木材價格在 2023 年整體相對平穩。因此我們不認為它會對 2024 年造成實質影響。就 2024 年而言，首先，我們預期我們的業務會呈現正常的季節性曲線。因此在我們對上下半年的看法上，並沒有季節性位移。我們預期下半年會比上半年略好一些，但兩個半年度都會是負成長，至少如我們指引所暗示。回想一下，2023 年上下半年其實彼此相當接近。

Our next question comes from the line of Zack Fadem with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自 Wells Fargo 的 Zack Fadem。

So starting with the underlying comp commentary. Curious if you could share some thoughts on Pro versus DIY trends, both for the industry as well as your share gain potential. And then any early thoughts on traffic versus ticket?

先從同店的底層評論開始。我想請你分享一下 Pro 相對於 DIY 的趨勢，不論是產業面或是你們的市占提升潛力。以及對於來客數（traffic）與客單價（ticket）是否有任何初步看法？

If you look at Pro versus consumer, Zack, I mean, for us, they were effectively the same in Q4. Overall, industry don't see that being too terribly much different. I can say within our Pro, in any customer segment that we have, the managed account customer who is engaging in the ecosystem that we're building was the highest performing customer segment in Q4 and throughout 2023. And we would expect that to continue into 2024 as well as we continue to build out the capabilities.

Zack，如果你看 Pro 相對於消費者端的表現，對我們而言，第四季基本上是一樣的。整體產業面，我們也不認為會有太大的差異。我可以說的是，在我們的 Pro 裡，不論是哪一個客群分層，第四季以及整個 2023 年表現最好的，是那些由我們管理的帳戶客戶（managed account customer），也就是正在參與我們所打造生態系的客戶。我們預期隨著我們持續建置相關能力，這個趨勢在 2024 年也會延續。

And then you called out the disinflationary price environment. I'm curious if you could parse that out between commodity deflation and promotional activity. And then as you look at '24, could you walk through the signs that you're seeing to suggest that we have turned the corner on the different [rates]?

另外你提到通膨降溫的價格環境。我想知道你能否把它拆解成商品（commodity）通縮與促銷活動兩部分。再者，當你看 2024 年時，你能否說明你看到哪些跡象，讓你認為我們已經在不同的[利率]上轉折了？

Yes. This is Billy. Thanks for the question. On the commodity piece, that is embedded in our forward-looking guidance that Rich had articulated during his prepared remarks. So -- and as it relates to the promotional cadence, we haven't seen any difference if you go back pre-pandemic to the promotional activity. We are in a very normalized environment. We do feel that pricing has kind of settled as we mentioned earlier. And so from a promotional standpoint cadence, we don't see any differentiation then like I said, what we lived through prior to the pandemic. So very consistent. We have -- we really are in a solid marketplace as it relates to that, and look forward to 2024.

是的。我是 Billy。謝謝你的問題。就商品面而言，這已經包含在 Rich 在事先準備的發言中所闡述的前瞻性指引裡。至於促銷節奏，我們沒有看到任何不同；如果你回到疫情前的促銷活動，其實是一樣的。我們處在一個非常正常化的環境。我們確實覺得如先前提到的，價格已經某種程度上趨於穩定。因此從促銷節奏的角度，我們看不出與疫情前我們經歷的情況有任何差異。非常一致。我們——就這點而言，我們確實處在一個穩健的市場環境，也期待 2024 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Chris Horvers。

So I was curious, as you think about the share of wallet, what did you learn over the holiday season? Are there any signs of life that you're seeing? You mentioned outdoor garden, I'm assuming maybe that's Christmas trees and Christmas decor. Is there any signs of life that maybe the smaller ticket softline stuff is starting to show where more decor items starting to show some signs of life. Did you see anything in appliances or on the bigger ticket side?

我想問的是，當你們思考錢包份額（share of wallet）時，在假期旺季你們學到了什麼？你們有看到任何復甦跡象嗎？你提到戶外園藝，我猜可能是聖誕樹和聖誕裝飾。小額客單的軟性品類是否開始出現一些回溫跡象，例如更多裝飾類商品開始有起色？在家電或較大客單的品類方面，你們有看到什麼嗎？

No. Hey, Chris, it's Ted. We saw great signs of life. There's loads of life in the sector. I mean we're working through some macro factors, as Richard articulated, but the consumer is healthy and the consumer is engaged. They're just engaged at this point in smaller projects. And you called out a number of categories that we had terrific engagement in Q4. Our deco holiday program was just an exceptional performer. The merchants there just keep taking that to the next level. We know we took a tremendous amount of share in deco holiday as the customer responds to our offering.

沒有。嗨 Chris，我是 Ted。我們看到非常好的回溫跡象。這個產業充滿活力。我的意思是，我們正在消化一些總體因素，如 Richard 所闡述的，但消費者是健康的，而且消費者有在參與。只是目前他們參與的是較小型的專案。你點名的幾個品類，我們在第四季的參與度都非常好。我們的節慶裝飾（deco holiday）方案表現非常出色。那邊的採購團隊一直把它推向更高水準。我們知道我們在節慶裝飾上拿到了大量市占，因為顧客對我們的商品組合有反應。

Our Gift Center lineup with the brands we have and the values that Billy and team put in the marketplace had a tremendous response. As he said, deco holiday in live goods did extremely well. Things like totes, I mean, we saw sold record units of totes in Q4 as people responded to our storage event. So we still have tremendous traffic, just pure volume of traffic and engagement.

我們的禮品中心（Gift Center）陣容，搭配我們所擁有的品牌，以及 Billy 和團隊在市場上提供的價值，獲得了非常熱烈的回應。正如他所說，節慶裝飾與活體商品（live goods）表現非常好。像是收納箱（totes）這類商品——我的意思是，我們在第四季賣出了創紀錄的收納箱數量，因為大家對我們的收納活動有反應。所以我們仍然有非常可觀的來客——純粹就來客量與互動而言。

Again, it's just that bigger ticket, although as an aside on bigger ticket, appliances was one of our better relative performers. And I think a lot of that has to do with our service levels as we're integrating the Temco acquisition in the percentage of our deliveries that they're now handling and the service level scores in on-time and complete that they're providing our customers. We think that's a big piece of the momentum behind our appliance business as well as the strength of our online shopping experience for major appliances.

再說一次，只是較大客單的品類——不過順帶一提，在大客單方面，家電是我們相對表現較好的品類之一。我認為這很大一部分與我們的服務水準有關，因為我們正在整合 Temco 的收購案，他們現在負責的配送占比提高，而他們在準時且完整（on-time and complete）方面提供給顧客的服務水準分數也很高。我們認為這是推動我們家電業務動能的重要因素之一，同時也包括我們在大型家電線上購物體驗的強勢。

And then as a follow-up, can you talk about what drove the gross margin decline here in the fourth quarter? You mentioned the expansion here coming in 2024. And then separately, just on the SG&A side. You did have a, I think, sizable legal gain in the first quarter of last year. Is that something that will have an effect on 2024 overall?

接著追問一下，你能談談第四季毛利率下滑的原因嗎？你提到 2024 年會擴張。另外，單就 SG&A 方面，你們去年第一季似乎有一筆相當可觀的法律收益。那會對 2024 年整體造成影響嗎？

Sure. Chris, it's Richard. So first on fourth quarter gross margin, I'd say our gross margin, first of all, is in line with our expectations for the year. For the full year and in the quarter, we saw some pull forward of pressure from pricing actions ahead of cost decreases.

當然。Chris，我是 Richard。先談第四季毛利率：我會說，我們的毛利率首先是符合我們對全年預期的。就全年以及該季度而言，我們看到一些壓力提前出現，原因是我們在成本下降之前就先採取了定價行動。

The good news is you now see those at current levels. And Billy mentioned, we're really at kind of a settled point right now in retail and in cost. Now as we begin to work through inventory layers, you now see the impact of those cost decreases that we took earlier in the year coming through in 2024, and that's the major driver behind the gross margin expansion that we've guided to.

好消息是，你現在看到這些都已經反映在目前的水準上。正如 Billy 提到的，我們現在在零售端與成本端都大致處於一個已經穩定下來的狀態。當我們開始消化庫存層次時，你會在 2024 年看到我們在年初較早採取的那些成本下降措施所帶來的影響逐步顯現，而這正是我們所指引的毛利率擴張背後的主要驅動因素。

On the settlement that you called out, I appreciate the question. It's important to note that there is some geography noise in year-over-year comparisons driven by that settlement. So just for everyone's recollection, we had a significant settlement in Q1 of 2023. That was a benefit to operating expense. Now as we said we would do, we fully offset that benefit with short-term costs in 2023 that set us up to lower our cost base going forward. Those short-term costs were mostly incurred in cost of goods sold, including some actions taken to optimize inventory levels.

關於你提到的和解案（settlement），謝謝你的提問。重要的是要注意，年對年比較中有一些由該和解案所驅動的「地理分布」雜訊（geography noise）。提醒大家一下，我們在 2023 年第一季有一筆重大的和解收益，這對營運費用（operating expense）是利多。接著如我們所說，我們在 2023 年用短期成本完全抵銷了這項收益，以便讓我們未來能降低成本基礎。這些短期成本大多發生在銷貨成本（cost of goods sold）中，包括一些為了最佳化庫存水位而採取的行動。

So that settlement geography and the cost that offset it create a more favorable comparison in cost of goods sold and a less favorable comparison in OpEx on a year-over-year basis. But obviously, the 2 offset each other and it's a geography shift.

因此，該和解案的地理分布影響，以及用來抵銷它的成本，會在年對年基礎上造成：銷貨成本的比較更有利、而營運費用（OpEx）的比較較不利。但顯然兩者彼此抵銷，這只是地理分布上的移轉。

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Scot Ciccarelli。

Within your comp guide, can you help us understand how you guys are modeling any benefit or accretion from your complex Pro build-out, just so we can better understand the thought process around it? And just as a sidebar, can you also tell us how big of a margin drag you expect the incentive comp swing to be in '24?

在你們的同店指引中，你能否協助我們理解，你們在模型中如何納入你們複雜的 Pro 擴建（build-out）所帶來的任何效益或增厚（accretion），讓我們能更好理解背後的思考過程？另外順帶一問，你們預期 2024 年激勵薪酬（incentive comp）擺動會對毛利率造成多大的拖累？

On the complex Pro, I mean, clearly, the improvements there and the expectation that the managed account engaging in those capabilities will be the strongest performing customer segment, that's embedded in the guidance of comp sales and overall sales.

關於複雜型 Pro，我的意思是，很明顯，那裡的改善以及我們預期採用這些能力的託管帳戶將會是表現最強的客戶區隔，這些都已反映在同店銷售與整體銷售的指引之中。

And on the drag from lower incentive bonus in 2023, really the largest and most meaningful driver of deleverage, as you know, our OpEx leverage or deleverage as a function of sales growth. So the largest driver of that is simply sales deleverage as operating cost inflation remains higher than sales growth. To a lesser extent, we see deleverage from the incentive compensation year-over-year.

至於 2023 年較低的激勵獎金所帶來的拖累，確實是去槓桿化最大、也最具意義的驅動因素；如你所知，我們的營運費用（OpEx）槓桿或去槓桿，取決於銷售成長。因此其中最大的驅動因素，單純就是銷售去槓桿，因為營運成本通膨仍高於銷售成長。相較之下，我們也看到激勵性薪酬在年對年方面帶來一定程度的去槓桿。

Okay. Can I just ask a follow-up on that? So just so I can understand that, yes, I understand the managed accounts are kind of the fastest growing. But like are you guys able to kind of disaggregate, let's call it, the typical engagement you would have with those accounts versus the expanded capabilities you're providing in certain markets? Or is it just too difficult to kind of separate those?

好的。我可以就這點再追問一下嗎？我只是想確認我理解正確：是的，我理解託管帳戶算是成長最快的。但你們是否能夠把它拆分開來——比如說，這些帳戶一般典型的互動/參與程度，與你們在某些市場提供的擴增能力之間的差異？還是說要把這些分開其實太困難？

No, we cannot absolutely. And we disaggregate at every level you can imagine. We're just not going to share all that detail, as you can imagine.

不，我們當然可以。我們在你能想像到的每一個層級都會做拆分。只是如你所想，我們不會分享所有那些細節。

Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gordon Haskett 的 Chuck Grom。

Just bigger picture, curious what you guys are monitoring across regions or product categories to suggest that demand for the home improvement category from a unit volume perspective is starting to bottom here as we look out over the next couple of years.

從更宏觀的角度來看，我想了解你們在各地區或產品類別上正在觀察哪些指標，來判斷居家修繕品類在「銷量（unit volume）」的角度，隨著我們展望未來幾年，是否開始在此處觸底。

Well, just to hit it on the most fine point here, really the last 3 quarters, we've seen kind of the most stability and the -- I'd say, 3 quarters ago, we saw a marked recovery in transactions and think about that as a proxy for units, but units followed similarly. Over the last 3 quarters, we've seen nice stability. And as we've said before, we define a healthy home improvement market as one where ticket and transaction are both positive. What we have seen on the good side here is that ticket and transaction have begun to converge and in fact, have sort of really much more tightly converged over the last 3 quarters.

嗯，如果要把重點講得更精準一些，過去 3 個季度我們看到相當程度的穩定性——我會說，大約 3 個季度前，我們看到交易筆數明顯回升；你可以把交易筆數視為件數（units）的代理指標，而件數的走勢也相近。過去 3 個季度，我們看到不錯的穩定性。正如我們之前所說，我們對健康的居家修繕市場的定義，是客單價（ticket）與交易筆數（transaction）都為正。好的一面是，我們看到客單價與交易筆數已開始收斂，事實上在過去 3 個季度收斂得更為緊密。

They were still both negative for the quarter, but that's really just reflective of the macro pressure that continues. From a geographic perspective, we aren't really necessarily able to tease out differences in recovery and transactions or units more of a national dynamic.

本季度兩者仍然都是負值，但那其實只是反映宏觀壓力仍在持續。從地理區域的角度來看，我們不一定能夠把復甦差異拆得很細；交易或件數的變化更像是全國性的動態。

Okay. Great. And then one for you, Richard. Just how should we think about the sensitivity of operating margins in fiscal '24 to every point of comp? Hypothetically, you guys are being a little bit conservative here on the down 1%. Just trying to think about how the model could respond.

好的，很好。接著有一題想問你，Richard。對於 2024 財年，營業利益率對每一個同店（comp）點數的敏感度，我們應該怎麼看？假設性地說，你們在同店下滑 1% 的假設上稍微保守一些；我只是想理解模型可能會如何反應。

Sure. I mean the basics are you can imagine with no management intervention, the natural rule of leverage or deleverage is about 10 basis points per point of comp, up or down.

當然。基本上，你可以想像在沒有管理層介入的情況下，自然的槓桿或去槓桿規則，大約是同店每變動 1 個百分點（上或下），對應約 10 個基點。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Michael Lasser。

As we look back to the last couple of downturns in home improvement, there was a pretty robust recovery in the subsequent years after a few periods of negative comps. Are you seeing any evidence or signs that this recovery, whenever it happens, would be different?

回顧過去幾次居家修繕產業的下行週期，在經歷幾段同店為負之後，後續年度通常會出現相當強勁的復甦。你們是否看到任何證據或跡象，顯示這次的復甦（無論何時發生）會有所不同？

We don't see why it would be different. I mean if anything, the underpinning of this market segment remains incredibly strong. When I step back and look at the macro, when you look at the influences that we watch most closely, home price appreciation, up 45-odd percent; home equity is up closer to 70%. That equity level, which is $10 trillion, $12 trillion increase since the pandemic has not been tapped. And in fact, HELOCs and cash-out refis are at multiple years low right now as interest rates went up over the last 2 years. So you have tremendous potential in an untapped balance sheet and equity position.

我們看不出為什麼會不同。甚至可以說，這個市場區隔的基本支撐仍然非常強勁。當我退一步看宏觀環境，觀察我們最密切關注的影響因素：房價上漲約 45%；房屋淨值（home equity）上升更接近 70%。這個淨值水位——自疫情以來增加了約 10 兆到 12 兆美元——尚未被動用。事實上，隨著過去兩年利率上升，HELOC（房屋淨值信用額度）與現金再融資（cash-out refi）目前都處於多年低點。因此，你擁有一個尚未動用的資產負債表與淨值部位，潛力非常大。

In homes, we talk about the age of homes now well over 50% or over 40 years old. People are still working from home more than they were certainly pre-pandemic. So usage in homes, the fundamental shortage of homes were -- I've seen anywhere between 2 million and 6 million units short. And on a near term, even forecast for 2024, we'll build 200,000-odd units less than demand. So you're not even beginning to make up for that shortage in the near term. So you look at all those factors, millennials becoming -- a year or so way of becoming the single biggest source of customer segment spend in our space. They're prime household formation in homeownership ages. So I look at all those and say, huge opportunity.

在住房方面，我們談到目前房屋屋齡，超過 50% 的房屋已超過 40 年。人們在家工作仍比疫情前明顯更多。因此，居家使用強度、以及住房的根本性短缺——我看到的估計從短缺 200 萬到 600 萬戶不等——都在支撐需求。而在短期內，即便是對 2024 年的預測，我們也將比需求少建造約 20 萬戶左右。所以短期內你甚至還無法開始彌補這個缺口。再看所有這些因素，千禧世代在我們這個領域的客群支出，距離成為最大來源只差一年左右；他們正處於家庭形成與購屋的黃金年齡。因此我綜合來看，機會非常大。

And we've mentioned this before, but the pandemic in a sense is a bit like a giant hurricane, right? I mean we had tremendous demand in growth in the segment, followed by a couple periods of moderation following that buildup. But as we watch every hurricane market, after you go through that cycle, it's as strong as ever. So with that backdrop of fundamental macros in the overall pandemic playing out over a 5-year period like a giant national storm, we have every reason to be extremely optimistic about the future.

我們之前也提過，疫情在某種意義上有點像一場巨大的颶風，對吧？我們在這個區隔看到需求與成長大幅上升，接著在累積之後出現幾段降溫期。但我們觀察每一個颶風型市場，在走完那個循環之後，市場依然強勁如昔。因此，在整體基本面宏觀因素的背景下，加上疫情像一場全國性的大風暴在 5 年期間逐步消化，我們有充分理由對未來保持極度樂觀。

And that's why we've made the comments today about how happy we are of what we accomplished. The management team here and the store associates and store leadership and supply chain just did such a great job level-setting this business following that sort of pandemic storm, and we couldn't feel better about how we're positioned from an operational point of view. And then we're sticking with all the strategic investments, our eyes are still on the prize of the best interconnected shopping experience, building out the Pro ecosystem for complex Pros and then having such confidence in our model to start a reasonably meaningful store build program. So we feel really, really good, Michael. Thanks for the question.

這也是為什麼我們今天會評論說，我們對所完成的成果感到非常滿意。這裡的管理團隊、門市同仁與門市領導、以及供應鏈，在那場疫情風暴之後把業務重新校準（level-setting）做得非常出色；從營運角度來看，我們對目前的定位再滿意不過。而且我們會持續所有策略性投資，我們的目標仍是打造最佳的互聯式購物體驗，為複雜型 Pro 建構 Pro 生態系，並且對我們的模式充滿信心，開始一個相當有意義的展店計畫。所以我們感覺非常、非常好，Michael。謝謝你的提問。

That's very helpful, Ted. If I could just add one more question. It's on Richard's comment about the rule of thumb of 10 basis points of margin expansion for every 1 point of comp. And understanding that this is theoretical, does that move in a linear fashion, meaning if you get back to the trajectory of mid-single-digit comp eventually, that you would see a better-than-trend rate of margin expansion the higher the growth rate? And there was also a comment that rule of thumb would be outside of actions that would be taken. So can you discuss what actions might be taken to bend that curve on the upside over time?

這很有幫助，Ted。如果我可以再加問一題：關於 Richard 提到的經驗法則——同店每增加 1 個百分點，毛利率擴張 10 個基點。理解這是理論上的假設，這是否是線性的變化？也就是說，如果最終回到中個位數同店成長的軌跡，成長率越高，是否會看到高於趨勢的利益率擴張速度？另外也提到，這個經驗法則是在不考慮將採取的行動之外。你能否談談，隨著時間推進，可能採取哪些行動來把那條曲線往上彎？

Thanks, Michael. Well, first, I certainly want to center you back to the comments we made at the investor conference in June, where we call out a base case once we return to market normalization, a base case of 3% to 4% sales growth, flat gross margin, an assumption of operating expense and operating margin leverage and growth and EPS growth of mid- to high single-digit percentages. Within that, obviously, is sort of an implied leverage per comp point on our OpEx. I'm giving you a, what I would call, a loose rule of thumb. It would apply for the most part to our sort of business model today. It certainly applies in the past, and I would expect it to apply loosely in the future.

謝謝你，Michael。首先，我想把你拉回到我們在 6 月投資人會議上的評論：我們指出一個基準情境（base case），也就是當市場回到常態化後，基準情境為銷售成長 3% 到 4%、毛利率持平，並假設營運費用與營業利益率會產生槓桿、同時 EPS 成長為中到高個位數百分比。在這之中，顯然隱含了我們在 OpEx 上、每一個同店點數所對應的槓桿程度。我給你的是一個我稱之為較寬鬆的經驗法則（loose rule of thumb）。它大致適用於我們目前的商業模式；過去確實適用，而我也預期未來仍會在大方向上適用。

Embedded in that is a normal rate of productivity and efficiency that our teams deliver every single year. I mean underneath all this guidance and our results for 2023, which we were so pleased with, is an enormous amount of work on behalf of our team. Think about the efficiency in our supply chain, you think about the efficiencies that our merchants bring every year in product cost. Of particular note, the productivity in our stores with some of the tools that are unleashing the power of AI and putting that in the hands of our associates, those are standard fare for us. They feed into what I would call normal operating leverage for The Home Depot, and it's something that we've come to expect of ourselves. So that's a long way of saying, we always intend to lever OpEx at a certain point of sales growth. And I would stick with the basic rule of thumb, maybe higher, maybe slightly lower in some periods from time to time.

其中也包含我們團隊每一年都能交付的正常生產力與效率提升。我是說，在所有這些指引與我們 2023 年的成果（我們對此非常滿意）背後，是團隊投入的龐大工作量。想想我們供應鏈的效率提升，再想想我們的採購團隊每年在產品成本上的效率改善。特別值得一提的是，我們門市的生產力提升，部分來自一些工具——這些工具正在釋放 AI 的力量，並把它交到同仁手上——這些對我們而言是標準配置。它們會反映在我所稱的 The Home Depot 的正常營運槓桿之中，也是我們對自己一貫的期待。所以說了這麼多，我們的意圖始終是在銷售成長達到某個水準時，讓 OpEx 產生槓桿。我會維持這個基本的經驗法則；在某些期間可能更高，也可能偶爾略低。

On the question about what actions there may be, well, we always operate with a degree of financial flexibility in the P&L. Although I would tell you that we did our very best, and I think we accomplished our objective of reducing fixed costs towards the end of '23 that had built up during the pandemic, hence the $500 million in cost savings implied in our guide. There are always levers. We have to determine what environment we are operating in before we decide what levers to pull. And so for now, we've provided what we would call our central case for 2024, but we're going to manage the business with the best interest of our long-term shareholders in mind.

關於可能採取哪些行動的問題，嗯，我們在損益表（P&L）上一直保有一定程度的財務彈性。雖然我會告訴你，我們已盡了最大努力，而且我認為我們在 2023 年底達成了目標，把疫情期間累積的固定成本降下來，因此我們指引中隱含了 5 億美元的成本節省。總是有可調整的槓桿。我們必須先判斷所處的營運環境，再決定要拉動哪些槓桿。因此目前，我們提供了我們所稱的 2024 年「基準情境」，但我們將以長期股東的最佳利益為出發點來經營業務。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Sigman with Barclays.

下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Seth Sigman。

I wanted to follow up on macro and the margins. Just on the macro side, you gave us a number of the factors that are built-in here. I guess the real question is, what are the conditions needed for comps to actually get back to positive? Is it as simple as fully digesting the 2 years of lower housing turnover and that will happen at some point through this year? I guess ultimately, can you return to growth without existing home sales improving?

我想追問一下總體環境與毛利率。就總體面而言，你們提供了不少已納入假設的因素。我想真正的問題是，要讓同店銷售（comps）實際回到正成長，需要哪些條件？是否只要把過去兩年房屋換手率偏低的影響完全消化，並在今年某個時間點發生就可以？歸根結底，在成屋銷售沒有改善的情況下，你們能否回到成長？

Absolutely. I mean as we've said for the longest time, home turnover is a base of home improvement demand, but it's been pretty steady. If you look at 4.5-odd percent of housing stock is a multiyear percentage of turnover, and that equates to 5-ish million units. The reason we're calling out that as a factor in these last 2 years is the dramatic decrease. And there's definitely an understanding that there's an improvement in place cycle if you don't move and you stay in your house, but there's a lag effect. And arguably, that lag effect is a bit longer this time because of the interest rate environment and people are just being conservative of when they kick off a larger home improvement project in a home that they're going to ultimately stay in for a longer period of time.

當然可以。我的意思是，正如我們長期以來所說，房屋換手是居家修繕需求的基礎，但它一直相當穩定。如果你看，大約 4.5% 的住房存量是多年期的換手比例，這相當於約 500 萬個單位。我們之所以在過去兩年把它點出來，是因為換手率出現了劇烈下滑。而且大家確實理解，如果你不搬家、留在原本的房子裡，會進入一個「改善／修繕」的週期，但會有遞延效應。可以說，這次的遞延效應更長一些，因為利率環境使然，人們在啟動較大型的居家修繕專案時更保守，尤其是在他們最終會住更久的房子裡。

So that's the dynamic of housing turnover. We think that plays out. We're literally at a 40-year low in turnover. Don't see that going lower. So you're going to cycle through that kind of acute 2-year pressure. And then do we get back to growth? Absolutely. I'd say we have a neutral look on housing for 2024. We don't think there's incremental pressure nor do we think that we're quite ready for a hockey stick recovery. Richard has been talking for some time the Fed's stance of higher for longer. I think now we have an appreciation that longer is going to go through the first half of this year. So even a lowering cycle in the back half, there's some timing effect to get mortgages, move homes, take a HELOC loan out, et cetera, to get a bigger project going. So that's why we're kind of calling for a slighter moderation to continue into '24.

這就是房屋換手的動態。我們認為它會逐步反映出來。我們目前的換手率確實處於 40 年低點，不認為還會更低。因此你會走過這種急性的兩年壓力。那麼我們會回到成長嗎？絕對會。我會說我們對 2024 年的房市看法偏中性。我們不認為會有額外壓力，但也不覺得已經準備好迎來「曲棍球棒式」的快速復甦。Richard 一段時間以來一直在談聯準會（Fed）「高利率維持更久」的立場。我想現在我們更能體會，「更久」將延續到今年上半年。因此即便下半年進入降息循環，從房貸利率傳導、房屋交易、申請房屋淨值信貸（HELOC）等，到推動更大型專案啟動，都會有時間差。這也是為什麼我們預期 2024 年仍會延續些微的放緩。

But as we said, the back half is marginally stronger. And we think all the macros line up for return to normalcy following that. And with the capabilities that we're building, we're taking share today with x percent of these capabilities complete. Super optimistic about how we're hitting the ground running as we continue to build going into a stronger market and the share gain opportunity.

但如我們所說，下半年會略為轉強。我們認為之後所有總體因素都會對齊，回到較正常的狀態。隨著我們正在建構的各項能力，即使目前這些能力只完成了 x%，我們今天也正在取得市占。我們對於持續建置、在更強的市場中快速起跑，以及市占提升的機會，感到非常樂觀。

Okay. Just one follow-up. Richard, you gave us a bunch of sensitivity numbers around the EBIT margins. I guess more specifically on SG&A for this year. I realize there's a number of moving pieces that come back. But can you give us a feel for what base underlying SG&A growth should look like this year? I think the headline guidance is around 4% growth. But maybe what is it excluding incentive comp and some of the costs that you're lapping with the benefits that you're lapping, just so we could think about that?

好的。再追問一個。Richard，你給了我們一系列關於 EBIT 利潤率的敏感度數字。我想更具體問今年的 SG&A。 我知道有很多變動因素會回來。但你能否讓我們了解一下，今年 SG&A 的基礎、底層成長大概會是什麼樣子？我想整體指引大約是 4% 成長。但如果排除獎酬性薪酬（incentive comp）以及一些你們正在比較基期（lapping）的成本與效益，你能否提供一個概念，讓我們更好建模？

Yes. I'd tell you, the best way to look at this is that we are now -- our P&L provides you with an appropriate jumping-off point for your models. There's a lot of noise in operating expense. If you think about the geography of the settlement in Q1, if you think about the geography of costs that we incurred, then you think about the geography of the $500 million in cost out, 2/3 of which will be realized in OpEx, 1/3 of which will be realized in cost of goods sold, and you just have a lot of noise. Again, the main driver of operating expense growth is going to be just at inflation on our base of operating expenses. And we think that if you look at our gross margin and our operating margin guide, these offer you the appropriate jumping-off points for your modeling.

可以。我會告訴你，最好的看法是：我們現在——我們的損益表（P&L）已為你的模型提供了合適的起點。營運費用裡有很多雜訊。你如果考慮到第一季和解案的地理分布、我們發生的成本的地理分布，再考慮到 5 億美元的降本，其中 2/3 會反映在營運費用（OpEx），1/3 會反映在銷貨成本（cost of goods sold），你就會看到很多雜訊。再次強調，營運費用成長的主要驅動因素，將只是我們營運費用基礎上的通膨水準。我們認為，如果你看我們的毛利率與營業利益率指引，這些能為你的建模提供合適的起點。

Our final question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.

我們最後一個問題來自 Guggenheim 的 Steven Forbes。

I'll keep it to one, just to end the call here. I wanted to follow up on the complex Pro, Ted. I appreciate the comments in your prepared remarks around trade credit being piloted. Curious if you can maybe expand on some early learnings around those newer features being launched as we think through what the sort of managed account customer can contribute to growth over the coming years here.

我只問一個，作為今天電話會議的結尾。我想追問一下複雜型 Pro（專業客戶），Ted。我很感謝你在事先準備的發言中提到正在試行（pilot）商業信用（trade credit）。我想了解你是否能擴充說明一些新功能上線後的早期學習，讓我們在思考未來幾年這類「管理型帳戶」客戶能為成長帶來什麼貢獻時，有更多線索。

Yes, I'll kick that off. Thanks, Ted. First of all, we're in our early stages. And just as a reminder as well, HD Supply does trade credit today. So we're -- as we architect our program, there's a lot of learnings there. But what -- to me, Chip is in the room. And Chip, you have a lot of experience here with trade credit and his experience is helping us also form some of the intricacies of how we think about it. So I'll turn it over to Chip.

好的，我先開頭。謝謝你，Ted。首先，我們還在早期階段。也提醒一下，HD Supply 目前就有提供商業信用。因此——在我們設計這個方案時，那裡有很多可借鏡的學習。不過對我來說，Chip 也在現場。Chip 在商業信用方面有很多經驗，他的經驗也在幫助我們形成一些我們如何思考此事的細節與複雜度。所以我把問題交給 Chip。

Yes. Thanks, Steven. Trade credit is definitely a necessary capability that we're building, really focused on that complex project. So as we invest in our Pros and our capabilities to be able to service their larger jobs, trade credit is definitely necessary. So we're in early days, as Ann mentioned, piloting a number of different customers, but plan to grow and expand that through the next couple of quarters as we automate that into our selling system as well.

是的，謝謝你，Steven。商業信用絕對是我們正在建構的一項必要能力，且真正聚焦在那種複雜專案。當我們投資於我們的 Pro 客戶，以及投資於能夠服務其更大型工作案的能力時，商業信用確實是必要的。因此如 Ann 所說，我們仍在早期階段，正對多種不同客戶進行試行，但計畫在接下來幾個季度擴大與延伸，並把它自動化整合到我們的銷售系統中。

Ms. Janci, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Janci 女士，我現在想把時間交回給您，請您做結語。

Thanks, Christine, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter call in May.

謝謝你，Christine，也謝謝各位今天的參與。我們期待在 5 月的第一季電話會議上再與各位交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

各位女士、先生，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。