家得寶 (HD) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to The Home Depot Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

您好，歡迎參加家得寶 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Isabel Janci. Please go ahead.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我很高興向大家介紹你們的主人，伊莎貝爾詹奇。請繼續。

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Home Depot's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call. Joining us on our call today are Ted Decker, Chair, President and CEO; Ann-Marie Campbell, Senior Executive Vice President; Billy Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; and Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. (Operator Instructions) If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations department at (770) 384-2387.

謝謝克里斯汀，大家早安。歡迎參加家得寶第四季和 2023 財年財報電話會議。今天參加我們電話會議的還有董事長、總裁兼執行長 Ted Decker；安瑪莉‧坎貝爾，資深執行副總裁； Billy Bastek，行銷執行副總裁；麥克菲爾（Richard McPhail），執行副總裁兼財務長。 （操作員說明）如果我們在通話期間無法解答您的問題，請致電我們的投資者關係部門：(770) 384-2387。

Before I turn the call over to Ted, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives, include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentations will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website.

在我將電話轉給Ted 之前，請允許我提醒您，今天的新聞稿和我們高管所做的演示包含1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性這可能會導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。今天的演示還將包括某些非公認會計原則措施。我們的網站上提供了這些措施的協調表。

Now let me turn the call over to Ted.

現在讓我把電話轉給泰德。

Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. As you'll hear from the team shortly, the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 was largely in line with our expectations. For fiscal 2023, sales were $152.7 billion, down 3% from the prior year. Comp sales declined 3.2% versus last year, and our U.S. stores had negative comps of 3.5%. Diluted earnings per share were $15.11, compared to $16.69 in the prior year.

謝謝你，伊莎貝爾，大家早安。正如您很快就會從團隊中聽到的那樣，2023 財年第四季基本上符合我們的預期。 2023 財年銷售額為 1,527 億美元，較上年下降 3%。與去年相比，公司銷售額下降了 3.2%，我們美國商店的公司銷售額為 3.5%。稀釋後每股收益為 15.11 美元，前一年為 16.69 美元。

After 3 years of exceptional growth for our business, 2023 was a year of moderation. It was also a year of opportunity. We focused on several operational improvements to strengthen the business, while also staying true to the growth opportunities detailed at our investor conference in June. As we reflect on 2023, we are better positioned in 4 key areas. We invested in our associates, the heartbeat of our company and the stewards of customer service; effectively manage this inflation while maintaining a strong value proposition for our customers; rightsized our inventory position and increased in-stock and on-shelf availability levels; and we reduced fixed costs in the business that were introduced during the pandemic.

我們的業務經歷了 3 年的非凡成長，2023 年是放緩的一年。這也是充滿機會的一年。我們專注於多項營運改善以加強業務，同時也牢牢掌握 6 月份投資者會議上詳細介紹的成長機會。回顧 2023 年，我們在 4 個關鍵領域處於更好的位置。我們投資於我們的員工、公司的核心以及客戶服務的管理者；有效管理通貨膨脹，同時為我們的客戶保持強大的價值主張；調整我們的庫存狀況，提高庫存和貨架供應水準；我們也降低了疫情期間引進的業務固定成本。

As you know, at the beginning of 2023, we announced an approximately $1 billion investment in increased annualized compensation for our frontline hourly associates. This allowed us to improve customer service, position ourselves favorably in the market, attract and retain the most qualified talent, drive greater efficiency and productivity across the business and improve safely broadly. We also navigated a unique disinflationary environment. We did this by leveraging our best-in-class cost finance team in merchants to effectively manage cost movements while also being our customers' advocate for value. And we believe prices have essentially settled in the marketplace.

如您所知，2023 年初，我們宣布投資約 10 億美元，以增加第一線小時工員工的年化薪資。這使我們能夠改善客戶服務，在市場中佔據有利地位，吸引和留住最合格的人才，提高整個企業的效率和生產力，並廣泛安全地改進。我們也應對了獨特的通貨緊縮環境。為此，我們利用商家中一流的成本財務團隊來有效管理成本變動，同時也是顧客價值的倡導者。我們相信市場價格已基本穩定。

After several years of unprecedented sales growth, we entered 2023 with more inventory than we would have preferred. While the products we sell have low obsolescence, our teams worked throughout the year to improve inventory productivity while delivering the highest in-stock and on-shelf availability rates since the pandemic. Today, we feel very good about our inventory position heading into 2024. Productivity and efficiency are hallmarks of The Home Depot. And as you heard at our investor conference in June, we announced our commitment to reduce fixed costs by approximately $500 million to be fully realized in 2024. We've now taken the necessary actions to achieve this cost benefit, which Richard will detail in a moment.

經過幾年前所未有的銷售成長，進入 2023 年，我們的庫存量超出了我們的預期。雖然我們銷售的產品過時率較低，但我們的團隊全年都在努力提高庫存效率，同時提供自疫情以來最高的庫存和貨架可用率。今天，我們對 2024 年的庫存狀況感到非常滿意。生產力和效率是家得寶的標誌。正如您在6 月的投資者會議上聽到的那樣，我們宣布承諾減少約5 億美元的固定成本，並於2024 年完全實現。我們現在已採取必要的行動來實現這一成本效益，理查德將在片刻。

As we look forward to 2024, we remain focused on our strategic opportunities of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our Pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities and building new stores. In December 2023, we made a strategic acquisition of Construction Resources, a leading distributor of design-oriented surfaces, appliances and architectural specialty products for Pro contractors focused on renovation, remodeling and residential homebuilding. This acquisition adds to our robust product offering of products and services. It allows our complex Pros to easily shop across aesthetic product categories in a showroom setting, which is how they are accustomed to shopping for these types of goods. We are excited to welcome Construction Resources into The Home Depot family.

展望 2024 年，我們將繼續專注於創造最佳互聯體驗、透過我們獨特的功能生態系統增加 Pro 錢包份額以及建立新商店的策略機會。 2023 年 12 月，我們策略性收購了 Construction Resources，這是一家為專業承包商提供設計導向表面、電器和建築專業產品的領先分銷商，專注於翻新、改建和住宅建設。此次收購增強了我們強大的產品和服務供應。它使我們複雜的專業人士能夠在陳列室環境中輕鬆購買各種美學產品類別，這就是他們習慣購買這些類型商品的方式。我們很高興歡迎建築資源加入家得寶大家庭。

In 2024, we will continue learning and building out new capabilities for the complex Pro. We are expanding our assortments, fulfillment options and our outside sales force and just recently began piloting trade credit options. In addition, we continue to work on new order management capabilities to better manage complex Pro orders. For the complex Pro opportunity, this means that by the end of 2024, we will have 17 of our top Pro markets equipped with new fulfillment options, localized product assortment and expanded sales force and enhanced digital capabilities, with trade credit and order management in pilot for development.

2024 年，我們將繼續學習並為複雜的 Pro 建立新功能。我們正在擴大我們的產品種類、履行選項和外部銷售隊伍，並且最近剛開始試點貿易信貸選項。此外，我們繼續致力於新的訂單管理功能，以更好地管理複雜的 Pro 訂單。對於複雜的專業機會，這意味著到 2024 年底，我們將擁有 17 個頂級專業市場，配備新的履行選項、本地化產品分類、擴大的銷售團隊和增強的數位能力，並試點貿易信貸和訂單管理為發展。

What I hope you take away today is how great we feel about our business and how well we are positioning the business for the future. We remain excited about the opportunity to grow our share of a fragmented $950 billion-plus market. Our associates and supplier partners have continually demonstrated agility and resilience, and I want to thank them for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities.

我希望您今天能了解到我們對我們的業務有多麼的好感，以及我們對未來業務的定位有多好。我們仍然對有機會在價值超過 9500 億美元的分散市場中擴大份額感到興奮。我們的員工和供應商合作夥伴不斷表現出敏捷性和韌性，我要感謝他們的辛勤工作和為我們的客戶和社區服務的奉獻精神。

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Ann.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給安。

Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. I can't be more pleased with our operational excellence and the investments we continue to make in the business. As you heard from Ted, we remain focused on 3 main strategic opportunities of creating the best interconnected experience, growing our Pro wallet share through our unique ecosystem of capabilities and building new stores. As we continue to create the best interconnected experience and remove friction from our customers' shopping journey, one of our biggest areas of opportunity is within our post-sale experience. For the majority of our customers, this process has largely been unchanged for the last 44 years, and we have opportunities to improve this experience.

謝謝，特德，大家早安。我對我們的卓越營運和我們繼續在業務上進行的投資感到非常滿意。正如您從 Ted 那裡聽到的，我們仍然專注於 3 個主要策略機會，即創造最佳的互聯體驗、透過我們獨特的功能生態系統增加我們的專業錢包份額以及建立新商店。隨著我們不斷創造最佳的互聯體驗並消除客戶購物過程中的摩擦，我們最大的機會領域之一就是我們的售後體驗。對於我們的大多數客戶來說，這個流程在過去 44 年基本上沒有變化，我們有機會改善這種體驗。

In 2023, we made significant progress taking friction out of our online order management process. Today, we have enhanced our systems to better allow our customers to both modify orders and self-service online returns. In 2024, we will focus on building more robust capabilities to support an interconnected self-service returns process, where customers will have the ability to start a return online and complete that return via mail or in-store. We have just begun all of this work in earnest and are very excited about the friction we will remove through this process, while realizing significant productivity benefits over the long term. Through these enhancements and new capabilities in our returns process, we gain efficiencies by reducing transaction time and improving on-shelf availability, enabling better inventory management.

2023 年，我們在消除線上訂單管理流程的摩擦方面取得了重大進展。今天，我們增強了我們的系統，以更好地允許我們的客戶修改訂單和自助線上退貨。 2024 年，我們將專注於建立更強大的功能來支援互聯的自助退貨流程，客戶將能夠在線上啟動退貨並透過郵件或店內完成退貨。我們剛開始認真地開始所有這些工作，並且對我們將透過此過程消除的摩擦感到非常興奮，同時實現長期的顯著生產力優勢。透過退貨流程中的這些增強功能和新功能，我們透過減少交易時間和提高貨架可用性來提高效率，從而實現更好的庫存管理。

We also improved customer service by allowing the customer to start and complete their return, however they want. As you've heard us say many times, we are focused on making our interconnected experience better and more convenient no matter how our customers choose to engage with us. As we mentioned at our investor conference in June, we plan to open approximately 80 new stores over the next 5 years. Our current network of over 2,300 stores throughout North America makes The Home Depot the most convenient physical destination for customers to shop for their home improvement products. We have a premier real estate footprint that provides convenience for the customer that we believe is nearly impossible to replicate. And we will continue to build out this footprint in a very strategic way by investing in new stores in areas that have experienced significant population growth or where it makes sense to relieve some pressure on existing high-volume stores.

我們還允許客戶按照自己的意願開始和完成退貨，從而改善了客戶服務。正如您多次聽到我們所說，無論客戶選擇如何與我們互動，我們都致力於讓我們的互聯體驗變得更好、更方便。正如我們在 6 月的投資者會議上提到的，我們計劃在未來 5 年內開設約 80 家新店。我們目前在北美擁有 2,300 多家商店網絡，使 The Home Depot 成為客戶購買家居裝修產品最方便的實體目的地。我們擁有一流的房地產足跡，為客戶提供了便利，我們認為這是幾乎不可能複製的。我們將繼續以非常策略性的方式擴大這一足跡，在人口大幅增長的地區或可以減輕現有高銷售商店壓力的地區投資新店。

In fiscal 2023, we opened 13 new stores, 8 in the U.S. and 5 in Mexico. In the U.S., our 8 new stores were roughly split between stores, relieving pressure from higher-volume existing stores and stores where we identified void in new high-growth areas. As an example, we are already seeing great results for many of these new stores and are particularly pleased with our Mapunapuna store in Honolulu, which allows us to better serve the Honolulu market.

2023 財年，我們開了 13 家新店，其中 8 家在美國，5 家在墨西哥。在美國，我們的 8 家新店大致分佈在不同門市之間，緩解了現有門市數量較多以及我們在新的高成長地區發現空缺門市的壓力。舉例來說，我們已經看到許多新店取得了良好的業績，並對檀香山的 Mapunapuna 店特別滿意，這使我們能夠更好地服務檀香山市場。

For fiscal 2024, we plan to open approximately 12 new stores. Beyond our focus on removing friction and growing through new stores, we have a lot of initiatives in 2024 geared at growing our share of wallet with the Pro. My new organization will be focused on better enabling alignment so we can more seamlessly deliver on our unique value proposition for all Pros. When we invest in new assets and capabilities to better serve the complex Pro, this also improves our Pro experience in our stores.

2024 財年，我們計劃開設約 12 家新店。除了專注於消除摩擦和透過新商店實現成長之外，我們在 2024 年還採取了許多舉措，旨在增加 Pro 版的錢包份額。我的新組織將專注於更好地實現一致性，以便我們能夠更無縫地為所有專業人士提供我們獨特的價值主張。當我們投資新的資產和功能以更好地為複雜的專業人士服務時，這也改善了我們商店中的專業人士體驗。

For example, more job site delivery orders fulfilled from our distribution centers means less congestion in our stores and less time dedicated to picking, packing and staging orders for delivery. This gives our in-store Pro sales associates more time to dedicate to our Pros. Additionally, the ability to fulfill large orders through our distribution network also means that we have more product in-stock and available for sale for all those Pros shopping in our stores. These improvements benefit our associates and all of our Pros.

例如，我們的配送中心履行的作業現場交貨訂單越多，意味著我們商店的擁塞情況就越少，並且用於揀貨、包裝和分期交貨訂單的時間也就越少。這使我們店內的專業銷售人員有更多的時間專注於我們的專業人士。此外，透過我們的分銷網絡履行大訂單的能力也意味著我們有更多的庫存產品，可供所有在我們商店購物的專業人士出售。這些改進使我們的員工和所有專業人士受益。

Our investments in these strategic initiatives as well as the investments in our associates has set us up for success. Recall that at the beginning of the year, we announced a significant investment of approximately $1 billion in increased annualized compensation for frontline hourly associates. As a result of this investment, we saw what we intended to see: meaningful improvement in our attrition rates, particularly among our most tenured associates, which drove improved customer service, productivity and safety. I'm excited to see all of our initiatives gaining traction, and I want to thank our amazing associates for all that they do.

我們對這些策略性舉措的投資以及對員工的投資為我們的成功奠定了基礎。回想一下，今年年初，我們宣布了一項約 10 億美元的重大投資，以增加一線小時工的年化薪酬。這項投資的結果是，我們看到了我們想要看到的結果：我們的員工流失率得到了有意義的改善，特別是我們最資深的員工，這推動了客戶服務、生產力和安全性的改善。我很高興看到我們所有的舉措都獲得了關注，我要感謝我們出色的同事所做的一切。

With that, let me turn the call over to Billy.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給比利。

Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by also thanking all of our associates and supplier partners for their ongoing commitment to serving our customers and communities. As you heard from Ted, during the fourth quarter, our sales were largely in line with our expectations. However, we did have some unfavorable impacts from weather in January and core commodity deflation. We saw a continuation of the trend that we've been observing throughout the year, with softness in certain big-ticket, discretionary-type purchases. Our customers continue to take on smaller projects while still deferring larger projects.

謝謝你，安，大家早安。首先，我還要感謝我們所有的員工和供應商合作夥伴持續致力於為我們的客戶和社區提供服務。正如您從 Ted 那裡聽到的，第四季度我們的銷售額基本上符合我們的預期。然而，一月份的天氣和核心商品通貨緊縮確實為我們帶來了一些不利影響。我們看到全年觀察到的趨勢仍在延續，某些大額、可自由支配的採購活動疲軟。我們的客戶繼續承擔較小的項目，同時仍推遲較大的項目。

Turning to our department comp performance for the fourth quarter. Our building materials and outdoor garden departments posted positive comps, and 6 of our remaining 12 merchandising departments posted comps above the company average, including appliances, plumbing, tools, paint, indoor garden and hardware. During the fourth quarter, our comp transactions decreased 2.1% and comp average ticket decreased 1.3%. However, we continue to see our customers trading up for new and innovative products. Deflation from core commodity categories negatively impacted our average ticket by 35 basis points during the fourth quarter, driven by deflation in lumber and copper wire.

轉向我們第四季部門的業績表現。我們的建築材料和戶外花園部門的業績表現良好，其餘 12 個銷售部門中有 6 個部門的業績高於公司平均水平，包括電器、管道、工具、油漆、室內花園和五金。第四季度，我們的贈品交易量下降了 2.1%，贈品平均票價下降了 1.3%。然而，我們繼續看到我們的客戶購買新的創新產品。在木材和銅線通貨緊縮的推動下，第四季核心商品類別的通貨緊縮對我們的平均票價產生了 35 個基點的負面影響。

During the fourth quarter, we continued to see, on average, a decline in lumber prices relative to a year ago. However, framing and panel lumber pricing experienced the most stable pricing levels during the quarter in some time. As an example, framing lumber started the quarter at approximately $370 per thousand board feet compared to ending the quarter at approximately $395, representing a change of less than 7%. Big-ticket comp transactions, or those over $1,000, were down 6.9% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. We continued to see softer engagement in big-ticket discretionary categories like flooring, countertops and cabinets.

在第四季度，我們繼續看到木材價格相對於一年前的平均下降。然而，框架和麵板木材定價在本季度一段時間內經歷了最穩定的定價水平。例如，框架木材本季初的價格約為每千板英尺 370 美元，而本季末的價格約為每千板英尺 395 美元，變化幅度不到 7%。大宗商品交易（即 1,000 美元以上的交易）與去年第四季相比下降了 6.9%。我們繼續看到地板、檯面和櫥櫃等大型非必需品類的參與度疲軟。

During the fourth quarter, our Pro and DIY customers performance was relatively in line with one another. While internal and external surveys suggest that Pro backlogs are lower than they were a year ago, they have remained stable and elevated relative to historical norms.

在第四季度，我們的專業客戶和 DIY 客戶的表現相對一致。雖然內部和外部調查顯示 Pro 積壓量低於一年前，但相對於歷史標準而言，積壓量仍保持穩定且上升。

Turning to total company online sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased approximately 2% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. We continue to enhance our digital customer experience with a number of new capabilities, including an enhanced browsing experience featuring the bestsellers in a local market and new product discovery zones, which highlights what's trending based on new and highly rated products. For those customers that transacted with us online during the fourth quarter, nearly half of our online orders were fulfilled through our stores. During the fourth quarter, we hosted our annual decorative holiday, Gift Center and Black Friday events. We saw strong engagement across all these events with our decorative holiday event posting a record sales year.

轉向公司總線上銷售額。與去年第四季相比，利用我們數位平台的銷售額成長了約 2%。我們繼續透過許多新功能來增強我們的數位客戶體驗，包括增強的瀏覽體驗，以本地市場的暢銷書為特色，以及新產品發現區，突出顯示基於新產品和高評價產品的趨勢。對於第四季度在網路上與我們進行交易的客戶來說，我們近一半的線上訂單是透過我們的商店完成的。在第四季度，我們舉辦了年度裝飾節日、禮品中心和黑色星期五活動。我們看到所有這些活動都有很強的參與度，我們的裝飾性節日活動創下了銷售記錄。

As Ted mentioned, 2023 marked a year of significant progress for our inventory management and on-shelf availability, while effectively navigating a disinflationary pricing environment and maintaining our position as the customers' advocate for value. Today, we are in a great position regarding our inventory levels. Our in-stocks are the best they've been in a number of years, and we are delivering a compelling assortment for our customers' home improvement needs.

正如 Ted 所提到的，2023 年是我們的庫存管理和貨架供應取得重大進展的一年，同時有效應對通貨緊縮的定價環境，並保持我們作為客戶價值倡導者的地位。今天，我們的庫存水準處於有利地位。我們的庫存是多年來最好的，並且我們正在為客戶的家居裝修需求提供令人信服的品種。

We are looking forward to the year ahead, particularly with the spring selling season right around the corner, and we have a great lineup of new and innovative products from live goods to outdoor power equipment. We're excited to expand our offering of Pro outdoor tools with the launch of our new cordless battery-powered Milwaukee M18 Backpack Blower and straight-shaft trimmer, broadening our assortment for the Pro landscaper. And our spring Gift Center event continues to lean into cordless technology with a wide variety of products from RYOBI, Milwaukee, Makita and DEWALT, many of which are exclusive to The Home Depot and the big-box retail channel.

我們對未來的一年充滿期待，特別是春季銷售季節即將到來，我們擁有從生活用品到戶外動力設備的一系列創新產品。我們很高興透過推出新型無線電池供電的 Milwaukee M18 背包吹風機和直軸修剪機來擴展我們的專業戶外工具產品，從而擴大了我們專業園林設計師的產品範圍。我們的春季禮品中心活動繼續採用無線技術，推出來自 RYOBI、Milwaukee、Makita 和 DEWALT 的各種產品，其中許多產品是家得寶 (Home Depot) 和大型零售通路獨有的。

We're also excited about our live goods program. Each year, our merchants partner with our national and regional growers to provide our customers with new and improved varieties to enhance the overall garden experience. We've made significant investments in partnership with our growers to bring new varieties to our customers that are more disease-resistant, tolerant to different climates and require less watering. Investing in our relationships with our growers will allow us to continue to drive innovation to meet our customers' needs and improve their shopping experience while building loyalty to The Home Depot. As we look forward to spring, we're excited about continuing to provide a broad assortment of best-in-class products that are in-stock and available for our customers when and how they need it.

我們也對我們的直播商品計劃感到興奮。每年，我們的商家與我們的國家和地區種植者合作，為我們的客戶提供新的和改良的品種，以增強整體花園體驗。我們與種植者合作進行了大量投資，為我們的客戶帶來抗病能力更強、能耐受不同氣候且需要更少澆水的新品種。投資我們與種植者的關係將使我們能夠繼續推動創新，以滿足客戶的需求並改善他們的購物體驗，同時建立對家得寶的忠誠度。在我們期待春天的同時，我們很高興能夠繼續提供種類繁多的一流產品，這些產品都有庫存，可以在客戶需要的時候以何種方式提供。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Richard.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給理查。

Thank you, Billy, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, total sales were $34.8 billion, a decrease of 2.9% from last year. During the fourth quarter, our total company comps were negative 3.5% with comps of negative 2.5% in November, positive 1.1% in December and negative 8.5% in January. Comps in the U.S. were negative 4% for the quarter with comps of negative 2.7% in November, positive 0.6% in December and negative 9.1% in January. In local currency, Mexico and Canada posted comps above the company average with Mexico posting positive comps. It is important to note that adjusting for holiday shifts and weather-related impacts in January, monthly comps relatively consistent across the quarter.

謝謝你，比利，大家早安。第四季總銷售額為348億美元，較去年下降2.9%。第四季度，我們公司的綜合成本為負 3.5%，其中 11 月為負 2.5%，12 月為正 1.1%，1 月為負 8.5%。美國本季的綜合指數為負 4%，其中 11 月的綜合指數為負 2.7%，12 月為正 0.6%，1 月為負 9.1%。以當地貨幣計算，墨西哥和加拿大的表現高於公司平均水平，其中墨西哥的表現為正值。值得注意的是，在調整一月份的假期班次和天氣相關影響後，整個季度的月度比較相對一致。

For the year, our sales totaled $152.7 billion, a decrease of 3% versus fiscal 2022. For the year, total company comp sales decreased 3.2% and U.S. comp sales decreased 3.5%. In the fourth quarter, our gross margin was approximately 33.1%, a decrease of 20 basis points from last year. For the year, our gross margin was approximately 33.4%, a decrease of 15 basis points from last year, which was in line with our expectations. During the fourth quarter, operating expenses as a percentage of sales increased approximately 115 basis points to 21.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Our operating expense performance during the fourth quarter reflects our previously executed compensation increases for hourly associates as well as deleverage from our top line results. For the year, operating expenses were approximately 19.2% of sales, representing an increase of approximately 90 basis points from fiscal 2022. Our operating margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 11.9% and for the year was approximately 14.2%.

今年，我們的銷售額總計 1,527 億美元，比 2022 財年下降 3%。今年，公司總銷售額下降 3.2%，美國公司銷售額下降 3.5%。第四季度，我們的毛利率約為33.1%，較去年下降20個基點。今年，我們的毛利率約為33.4%，比去年下降15個基點，符合我們的預期。與2022 年第四季相比，第四季度營運費用佔銷售額的百分比增加了約115 個基點，達到21.2%。我們第四季的營運費用表現反映了我們先前對小時員工執行的薪資增加以及來自我們的主要結果。今年，營運費用約佔銷售額的 19.2%，較 2022 財年增加約 90 個基點。第四季的營運利潤率約為 11.9%，全年營運利潤率約為 14.2%。

Interest and other expense for the fourth quarter increased by $50 million to $458 million. In the fourth quarter and for fiscal 2023, our effective tax rate was 24%. Our diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $2.82, a decrease of 14.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. Diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2023 were $15.11, a decrease of 9.5% compared to fiscal 2022. At the end of the quarter, merchandise inventories were $21 billion, down $3.9 billion or approximately 16% versus last year, and inventory turns were 4.3x, up from 4.2x from the second period last year.

第四季的利息和其他費用增加了 5,000 萬美元，達到 4.58 億美元。第四季和 2023 財年，我們的有效稅率為 24%。我們第四季的稀釋每股收益為 2.82 美元，較 2022 年第四季下降 14.5%。2023 財年的稀釋每股收益為 15.11 美元，較 2022 財年下降 9.5%。第二季商品庫存為210億美元，比去年同期減少39 億美元，約16%，庫存週轉率為4.3 倍，高於去年第二期的4.2 倍。

Moving on to capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we invested approximately $860 million back into our business in the form of capital expenditures. This brings total capital expenditures for fiscal 2023 to approximately $3.2 billion. During the year, we opened 13 new stores, bringing our store count to 2,335 at the end of fiscal 2023. Retail selling square footage was approximately 242 million square feet and total sales per retail square foot were approximately $605 in fiscal 2023. Additionally, we invested approximately $1.5 billion on 3 acquisitions during fiscal 2023, accelerating our strategic initiatives and providing us with better capabilities to serve our customers.

繼續進行資本配置。第四季度，我們以資本支出的形式向業務投資了約 8.6 億美元。這使得 2023 財年的資本支出總額達到約 32 億美元。年內，我們開設了13 家新店，到2023 財年末，我們的商店數量達到2,335 家。零售銷售面積約為2.42 億平方英尺，2023 財年每零售平方英尺的總銷售額約為605 美元。此外，在我們2023 財年期間，我們投資了約 15 億美元進行了 3 項收購，加速了我們的策略性舉措，並為我們提供了更好的服務客戶的能力。

During the year, we paid approximately $8.4 billion of dividends to our shareholders. Today, we announced our Board of Directors increased our quarterly dividend by 7.7% to $2.25 per share, which equates to an annual dividend of $9 per share. And finally, during fiscal 2023, we returned approximately $8 billion to our shareholders in the form of share repurchases, including $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was 36.7% compared to 44.6% at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022.

年內，我們向股東支付了約 84 億美元的股利。今天，我們宣布董事會將季度股息提高 7.7% 至每股 2.25 美元，相當於每股年度股息 9 美元。最後，在 2023 財年，我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 80 億美元，其中第四季返還了 15 億美元。根據過去 12 個月期初和期末長期債務和股本的平均值計算，投資資本回報率為 36.7%，而 2022 財年第四季末為 44.6%。

Now I'll comment on our outlook for 2024. First, let me point out that fiscal 2024 will include a 53rd week, so the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 will consist of 14 weeks. We will continue to report comps on a 52-week basis, but we will base our overall guidance on 53 weeks. As you heard from Ted, we feel great about the actions we took in 2023 to position us well heading into 2024. And while there are signs that the economy is on the way towards normalization, the home improvement market still faces headwinds as we look ahead to fiscal 2024.

現在我將評論我們對 2024 年的展望。首先，讓我指出，2024 財年將包括第 53 週，因此 2024 財年第四季將包括 14 週。我們將繼續以 52 週為基礎報告比較情況，但我們的整體指導將基於 53 週。正如您從Ted 那裡聽到的，我們對2023 年採取的行動感到非常高興，這些行動使我們在進入2024 年時處於有利地位。儘管有跡象表明經濟正在走向正常化，但展望未來，家居裝修市場仍面臨阻力到 2024 財年。

We considered several factors that informed our outlook for fiscal 2024. On the positive side, we faced a number of pressures in fiscal 2023 that are unlikely to repeat in fiscal 2024. In 2023, we saw 4 increases in the Fed funds rate, a sharp decline in existing home sales and approximately 110 basis points of comp pressure from lumber deflation. However, we still expect pressures to our business in fiscal 2024. Personal consumption growth as measured by PCE is expected to decelerate compared to 2023. Our share of PCE also remains slightly elevated relative to 2019 and has been on a glide path towards 2019 levels. Higher interest rates at the beginning of 2024 relative to last year will likely continue to pressure demand for larger projects. And the effects from pull forward of demand during the pandemic as well as some project deferral could impact demand into 2024. As we consider these influences on home improvement demand, we are planning for a year of continued moderation but with slightly less pressure to comp sales than what we faced in fiscal 2023.

我們考慮了影響我們對2024 財年前景的幾個因素。從積極的方面來看，我們在2023 財年面臨著許多壓力，這些壓力不太可能在2024 財年重演。2023 年，我們看到聯邦基金利率上調了4 次，大幅上調了2023 財年的壓力。成屋銷售下降以及木材通貨緊縮帶來的競爭壓力約 110 個基點。然而，我們仍預期2024 財年我們的業務將面臨壓力。與2023 年相比，以PCE 衡量的個人消費成長預計將放緩。相對於2019 年，我們的PCE 份額也仍略有上升，並且一直在向2019 年的水準下滑。 2024 年初相對於去年更高的利率可能會繼續對大型專案的需求造成壓力。疫情期間需求提前以及一些項目延遲的影響可能會影響到 2024 年的需求。當我們考慮這些對家居裝修需求的影響時，我們計劃在一年中繼續放緩，但對銷售的壓力略有減輕與我們在2023 財年面臨的情況相比。

Our fiscal 2024 outlook is for total sales growth to outpace sales comp with sales growth of approximately positive 1% and comp sales of approximately negative 1% compared to fiscal 2023. Total sales growth will benefit from a 53rd week as well as from the acquisitions we made and the new stores we opened in fiscal 2023 and the stores we plan to open in fiscal 2024. We expect the 53rd week will contribute approximately $2.3 billion in sales. Our gross margin is expected to be approximately 33.9%, an increase of approximately 50 basis points compared to fiscal 2023. This primarily reflects a lower product and transportation cost environment relative to fiscal 2023 as well as benefits from a portion of the approximately $500 million in reduced fixed costs that we will realize in fiscal 2024.

我們對2024 財年的展望是，與2023 財年相比，總銷售額成長將超過銷售額成長，銷售額成長約正1%，銷售額成長約負1%。總銷售額成長將受惠於第53 週以及我們的收購。以及我們在 2023 財年開設的新店以及我們計劃在 2024 財年開設的商店。我們預計第 53 週將貢獻約 23 億美元的銷售額。我們的毛利率預計約為33.9%，與2023 財年相比增加約50 個基點。這主要反映了相對於2023 財年較低的產品和運輸成本環境，以及受益於約5 億美元的毛利率中的一部分。我們將在 2024 財年實現固定成本的降低。

Further, we expect operating margin of approximately 14.1%. This reflects deleverage from sales and pressure from targeted incentive compensation, as we are overlapping lower incentive compensation paid than planned in 2023. This will be partially offset by the benefits from the approximately $500 million in fixed costs that we will realize in fiscal 2024 in both cost of goods sold and operating expenses. Our effective tax rate is targeted at approximately 24.5%. We expect net interest expense of approximately $1.8 billion. Our diluted earnings per share percent growth is targeted to be approximately 1% compared to fiscal 2023, with the extra week contributing approximately $0.30. We plan to continue investing in our business with capital expenditures of approximately 2% of sales on an annual basis. After investing in our business and paying our dividend, it is our intent to return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. We believe we have positioned ourselves to meet the needs of our customers in any environment. The investments we've made in our business have enabled agility in our operating model. As we look forward, we will continue to invest to strengthen our position with our customers, leverage our scale and low-cost position to drive growth faster than the market and deliver shareholder value.

此外，我們預計營業利潤率約為 14.1%。這反映了銷售的去槓桿化和目標激勵薪酬的壓力，因為我們重疊了2023 年支付的低於計劃的激勵薪酬。這將被我們將在2024 財年實現的約5 億美元固定成本的收益部分抵銷。銷售成本和營運費用。我們的有效稅率目標約為 24.5%。我們預計淨利息支出約為 18 億美元。與 2023 財年相比，我們的稀釋每股盈餘成長率目標為約 1%，額外一週貢獻約 0.30 美元。我們計劃繼續投資我們的業務，每年的資本支出約為銷售額的 2%。在投資我們的業務並支付股利後，我們打算以股票回購的形式將多餘的現金回饋給股東。我們相信，我們的定位能夠滿足客戶在任何環境下的需求。我們對業務的投資使我們的營運模式變得敏捷。展望未來，我們將繼續投資以鞏固我們在客戶中的地位，利用我們的規模和低成本地位來推動比市場更快的成長並創造股東價值。

Thank you for your participation in today's call. And Christine, we are now ready for questions.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。克里斯汀，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼（Simeon Gutman）。

Can you -- my first question is how much of this minus 1% comp view is an industry view plus or minus share gain, I'm assuming plus, versus if you look at current purchasing trends? And Richard, you noted some of the, let's say, some of the less headwinds that you noted that you expect to face in 2023.

你能－我的第一個問題是，這個負1%的比較觀點有多少是產業觀點加上或減去份額收益，我假設是加上，與你看看當前的購買趨勢相比？理查德，您提到了您預計在 2023 年將面臨的一些較小的阻力。

Sure. Yes, Simeon. In short, we expect that the macro pressures we called out to point towards low single-digit negative growth from improvement demand and then for us to outperform the market. And that's how we got to the negative 1% comp guide.

當然。是的，西蒙。簡而言之，我們預計，我們所面臨的宏觀壓力將導致需求改善導致低個位數負成長，然後我們將跑贏大盤。這就是我們得出負 1% 補償指南的原因。

And your second part of your question, Simeon?

你問題的第二部分，西蒙？

I would -- I guess, that was the whole part of it. It was how much of it is a macro view versus like a forecast for housing plus market share versus you have less headwinds that you noted in the current year, plus you're combining that with how the consumer is behaving.

我想——我想，這就是全部。這是宏觀觀點與房屋加市場份額的預測相比，你今年註意到的阻力較少，再加上你將其與消費者的行為方式結合。

Well, it's all taken as a whole. There are several cross-currents here. Again, we face macro headwinds, albeit at a lesser degree than we faced in 2023. And so again, just to quickly tick through them, PCE is expected to decelerate. We still have a slightly -- as a market, we have a slightly elevated share of PCE versus 2019. We know that, that has gradually receded since 2021. The interest rate environment is still one where while we see our customers have the means to spend, they are taking more of a deferral stance with respect to large project demand. And we believe there was some pull forward of certain spend during the period of 2020 to 2022 that we're working out.

嗯，這一切都是作為一個整體來看的。這裡有幾個交叉流。我們再次面臨宏觀阻力，儘管程度比 2023 年要輕。因此，為了快速克服這些阻力，PCE 預計將減速。作為一個市場，與 2019 年相比，我們的 PCE 份額仍然略有上升。我們知道，自 2021 年以來，這種情況已逐漸消退。利率環境仍然是這樣的，儘管我們看到我們的客戶有辦法支出方面，他們對大型專案需求採取了更多延遲的立場。我們認為，我們正在研究的 2020 年至 2022 年期間的某些支出會提前。

Housing, it's a little hard to tease out. Obviously, home values have held in there. We now see home prices having appreciated by over 46% since 2019. Turnover has dropped sharply over the last 2 years, and that's a headwind possibly offset by some level of improvement play. So we're essentially neutral on housing short term. And so that's -- all of those have an impact on our market. And then as you said, we expect to gain share in any macro environment through our growth initiatives of Pro, the interconnected experience in new stores, and that takes us to our negative 1% comp outlook.

住房，有點難以整理。顯然，房屋價值一直保持在那裡。我們現在看到房價自 2019 年以來已經上漲了 46% 以上。過去兩年成交量急劇下降，這一阻力可能會被一定程度的改善所抵消。因此，我們對短期房屋市場基本上持中立態度。所以，所有這些都會對我們的市場產生影響。然後，正如您所說，我們希望透過 Pro 的成長計劃、新店的互聯體驗在任何宏觀環境中獲得份額，這使我們的複合前景為負 1%。

Fair enough. And then a follow-up, can we ask about the shape of the year? You lapped lumber deflation in the first part of the year, maybe some weather. So that should be better, but the second half is in theory post-interest rate cuts, maybe durables get a little bit better. So how should we think about it?

很公平。然後後續，我們可以問一下年份的形狀嗎？今年上半年，也許是某些天氣原因，您經歷了木材通貨緊縮。所以這應該會更好，但理論上下半年是降息後，耐用品可能會好一點。那我們該如何思考呢？

Yes. So Simeon, lumber was actually a function more of a comparison to 2022 and 2023. If you compare the lumber charts, just I'd encourage you to pull it up, lumber prices were relatively steady across 2023. So we don't really see a material impact to 2024. With respect to '24, first, we expect a normal seasonal curve for our business. So there's really no seasonal shift in how we think about the halves. We anticipate the second half coming in slightly better than the first half, with both being negative, at least as implied in our guidance. It might help to recall the halves for 2023 were relatively in line with one another.

是的。所以 Simeon，木材實際上更多的是與 2022 年和 2023 年進行比較的函數。如果你比較木材圖表，我鼓勵你把它拉高，木材價格在 2023 年相對穩定。所以我們並沒有真正看到對2024 年產生重大影響。關於24 年，首先，我們預期我們的業務將出現正常的季節性曲線。所以我們對半程的看法其實並沒有季節性變化。我們預計下半年的表現將略好於上半年，兩者都是負面的，至少正如我們的指導中所暗示的那樣。回想一下 2023 年的一半情況可能會有所幫助。

Our next question comes from the line of Zack Fadem with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Zack Fadem。

So starting with the underlying comp commentary. Curious if you could share some thoughts on Pro versus DIY trends, both for the industry as well as your share gain potential. And then any early thoughts on traffic versus ticket?

因此，從底層的比較評論開始。我想知道您是否可以分享一些關於專業與 DIY 趨勢的想法，無論是對行業還是您的份額成長潛力。那麼關於交通與門票的早期想法是什麼？

If you look at Pro versus consumer, Zack, I mean, for us, they were effectively the same in Q4. Overall, industry don't see that being too terribly much different. I can say within our Pro, in any customer segment that we have, the managed account customer who is engaging in the ecosystem that we're building was the highest performing customer segment in Q4 and throughout 2023. And we would expect that to continue into 2024 as well as we continue to build out the capabilities.

如果你看看專業人士與消費者，扎克，我的意思是，對我們來說，他們在第四季度實際上是相同的。整體而言，業界認為這並沒有太大的差異。我可以說，在我們的Pro 中，在我們擁有的任何客戶群中，參與我們正在建立的生態系統的管理帳戶客戶是第四季度和2023 年業績最高的客戶群。我們預計這種情況將持續到2024 年，我們也將持續增強能力。

And then you called out the disinflationary price environment. I'm curious if you could parse that out between commodity deflation and promotional activity. And then as you look at '24, could you walk through the signs that you're seeing to suggest that we have turned the corner on the different [rates]?

然後你提到了通貨緊縮的價格環境。我很好奇你是否能在商品通貨緊縮和促銷活動之間解析這一點。然後，當您回顧 24 年時，您能否瀏覽一下您所看到的跡象，這些跡象表明我們已經在不同的[費率]上扭轉了局面？

Yes. This is Billy. Thanks for the question. On the commodity piece, that is embedded in our forward-looking guidance that Rich had articulated during his prepared remarks. So -- and as it relates to the promotional cadence, we haven't seen any difference if you go back pre-pandemic to the promotional activity. We are in a very normalized environment. We do feel that pricing has kind of settled as we mentioned earlier. And so from a promotional standpoint cadence, we don't see any differentiation then like I said, what we lived through prior to the pandemic. So very consistent. We have -- we really are in a solid marketplace as it relates to that, and look forward to 2024.

是的。這是比利。謝謝你的提問。在大宗商品方面，這已融入我們的前瞻性指導中，里奇在他準備好的演講中闡述了這一點。因此，由於這與促銷節奏有關，如果你回到大流行前的促銷活動，我們沒有看到任何差異。我們處於一個非常正常化的環境。正如我們之前提到的，我們確實認為定價已經穩定下來。因此，從促銷節奏的角度來看，正如我所說，我們在疫情大流行之前所經歷的情況沒有任何區別。所以非常一致。我們確實處於與此相關的堅實市場，並期待 2024 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Chris Horvers。

So I was curious, as you think about the share of wallet, what did you learn over the holiday season? Are there any signs of life that you're seeing? You mentioned outdoor garden, I'm assuming maybe that's Christmas trees and Christmas decor. Is there any signs of life that maybe the smaller ticket softline stuff is starting to show where more decor items starting to show some signs of life. Did you see anything in appliances or on the bigger ticket side?

所以我很好奇，當你想到錢包的份額時，你在假期期間學到了什麼？你看到任何生命跡象嗎？你提到戶外花園，我想那可能是聖誕樹和聖誕裝飾。是否有任何生命跡象，也許較小的門票軟線物品開始顯示出更多裝飾物品開始顯示出一些生命跡象。您在電器或更高價位方面看到了什麼嗎？

No. Hey, Chris, it's Ted. We saw great signs of life. There's loads of life in the sector. I mean we're working through some macro factors, as Richard articulated, but the consumer is healthy and the consumer is engaged. They're just engaged at this point in smaller projects. And you called out a number of categories that we had terrific engagement in Q4. Our deco holiday program was just an exceptional performer. The merchants there just keep taking that to the next level. We know we took a tremendous amount of share in deco holiday as the customer responds to our offering.

不，嘿，克里斯，我是泰德。我們看到了巨大的生命跡象。這個行業充滿活力。我的意思是，正如理查德所闡述的那樣，我們正在解決一些宏觀因素，但消費者是健康的並且消費者是參與的。他們目前只參與較小的專案。您指出了我們在第四季度進行了出色參與的許多類別。我們的裝飾假期計劃表現出色。那裡的商人不斷將其提升到一個新的水平。我們知道，當客戶對我們的產品做出反應時，我們在裝飾假期中佔據了巨大的份額。

Our Gift Center lineup with the brands we have and the values that Billy and team put in the marketplace had a tremendous response. As he said, deco holiday in live goods did extremely well. Things like totes, I mean, we saw sold record units of totes in Q4 as people responded to our storage event. So we still have tremendous traffic, just pure volume of traffic and engagement.

我們的禮品中心陣容以及我們擁有的品牌以及比利和團隊在市場上投入的價值觀引起了巨大的反響。正如他所說，裝飾節日的現場商品表現非常好。我的意思是，像手提袋這樣的東西，隨著人們對我們的存儲活動的反應，我們在第四季度看到了創紀錄的手提袋銷售。因此，我們仍然擁有龐大的流量，只是純粹的流量和參與度。

Again, it's just that bigger ticket, although as an aside on bigger ticket, appliances was one of our better relative performers. And I think a lot of that has to do with our service levels as we're integrating the Temco acquisition in the percentage of our deliveries that they're now handling and the service level scores in on-time and complete that they're providing our customers. We think that's a big piece of the momentum behind our appliance business as well as the strength of our online shopping experience for major appliances.

再說一遍，這只是更大的門票，儘管作為更大門票的旁白，電器是我們相對表現較好的產品之一。我認為這很大程度上與我們的服務水平有關，因為我們正在將收購 Temco 納入他們現在處理的交付百分比以及他們提供的按時和完成的服務水平分數我們的顧客。我們認為這是我們家電業務背後的重要動力，也是我們主要家電線上購物體驗的優勢。

And then as a follow-up, can you talk about what drove the gross margin decline here in the fourth quarter? You mentioned the expansion here coming in 2024. And then separately, just on the SG&A side. You did have a, I think, sizable legal gain in the first quarter of last year. Is that something that will have an effect on 2024 overall?

作為後續，您能談談是什麼推動了第四季毛利率的下降嗎？您提到 2024 年將進行擴張。然後分別在 SG&A 方面。我認為，去年第一季你們確實獲得了相當大的合法收益。這會對 2024 年整體產生影響嗎？

Sure. Chris, it's Richard. So first on fourth quarter gross margin, I'd say our gross margin, first of all, is in line with our expectations for the year. For the full year and in the quarter, we saw some pull forward of pressure from pricing actions ahead of cost decreases.

當然。克里斯，這是理查德。首先，關於第四季的毛利率，我想說，我們的毛利率首先符合我們今年的預期。對於全年和本季度，我們看到在成本下降之前定價行動帶來的壓力提前。

The good news is you now see those at current levels. And Billy mentioned, we're really at kind of a settled point right now in retail and in cost. Now as we begin to work through inventory layers, you now see the impact of those cost decreases that we took earlier in the year coming through in 2024, and that's the major driver behind the gross margin expansion that we've guided to.

好消息是您現在看到的是當前水平。比利提到，我們現在在零售和成本方面確實處於一個穩定的點。現在，當我們開始研究庫存層時，您現在可以看到我們今年稍早採取的成本下降對 2024 年的影響，這是我們引導的毛利率擴張背後的主要驅動力。

On the settlement that you called out, I appreciate the question. It's important to note that there is some geography noise in year-over-year comparisons driven by that settlement. So just for everyone's recollection, we had a significant settlement in Q1 of 2023. That was a benefit to operating expense. Now as we said we would do, we fully offset that benefit with short-term costs in 2023 that set us up to lower our cost base going forward. Those short-term costs were mostly incurred in cost of goods sold, including some actions taken to optimize inventory levels.

關於你提出的解決方案，我很欣賞這個問題。值得注意的是，在該和解推動的逐年比較中存在一些地理噪音。因此，請大家記住，我們在 2023 年第一季達成了一項重大和解。這對營運費用是有利的。現在，正如我們所說的那樣，我們用 2023 年的短期成本完全抵消了這一收益，這使我們能夠降低未來的成本基礎。這些短期成本主要是在銷售成本中產生的，包括為優化庫存水準而採取的一些行動。

So that settlement geography and the cost that offset it create a more favorable comparison in cost of goods sold and a less favorable comparison in OpEx on a year-over-year basis. But obviously, the 2 offset each other and it's a geography shift.

因此，結算地理位置和抵銷它的成本在銷售成本方面產生了更有利的比較，而在營運支出方面則產生了較去年同期不利的比較。但顯然，兩者相互抵消，這是地理上的轉變。

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 和 Truist 的對話。

Within your comp guide, can you help us understand how you guys are modeling any benefit or accretion from your complex Pro build-out, just so we can better understand the thought process around it? And just as a sidebar, can you also tell us how big of a margin drag you expect the incentive comp swing to be in '24?

在您的比較指南中，您能否幫助我們了解您如何對複雜的 Pro 構建中的任何好處或增值進行建模，以便我們可以更好地理解圍繞它的思維過程？作為側邊欄，您能否告訴我們您預計 24 年激勵補償波動對利潤率的拖累有多大？

On the complex Pro, I mean, clearly, the improvements there and the expectation that the managed account engaging in those capabilities will be the strongest performing customer segment, that's embedded in the guidance of comp sales and overall sales.

對於複雜的專業版，我的意思是，顯然，那裡的改進以及參與這些功能的管理帳戶將成為表現最強勁的客戶群的期望，這嵌入在比較銷售和整體銷售的指導中。

And on the drag from lower incentive bonus in 2023, really the largest and most meaningful driver of deleverage, as you know, our OpEx leverage or deleverage as a function of sales growth. So the largest driver of that is simply sales deleverage as operating cost inflation remains higher than sales growth. To a lesser extent, we see deleverage from the incentive compensation year-over-year.

如你所知，在 2023 年激勵獎金降低的拖累下，真正最大、最有意義的去槓桿化驅動因素是我們的營運支出槓桿或去槓桿化作為銷售成長的函數。因此，最大的推動因素就是銷售去槓桿化，因為營運成本通膨仍然高於銷售成長。在較小程度上，我們看到激勵薪酬逐年去槓桿化。

Okay. Can I just ask a follow-up on that? So just so I can understand that, yes, I understand the managed accounts are kind of the fastest growing. But like are you guys able to kind of disaggregate, let's call it, the typical engagement you would have with those accounts versus the expanded capabilities you're providing in certain markets? Or is it just too difficult to kind of separate those?

好的。我可以詢問後續情況嗎？所以我可以理解，是的，我知道管理帳戶是成長最快的。但是，你們是否能夠將這些帳戶的典型參與度與您在某些市場中提供的擴充功能進行分類？或者說將它們分開太困難了？

No, we cannot absolutely. And we disaggregate at every level you can imagine. We're just not going to share all that detail, as you can imagine.

不，我們絕對不能。我們在您能想像的各個層面上進行分類。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們只是不會分享所有細節。

Our next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett.

我們的下一個問題來自查克·格羅姆和戈登·哈斯克特的對話。

Just bigger picture, curious what you guys are monitoring across regions or product categories to suggest that demand for the home improvement category from a unit volume perspective is starting to bottom here as we look out over the next couple of years.

從更大的角度來看，好奇你們正在跨地區或產品類別進行監測，這表明從單位數量的角度來看，對家居裝修類別的需求正開始觸底，我們展望未來幾年。

Well, just to hit it on the most fine point here, really the last 3 quarters, we've seen kind of the most stability and the -- I'd say, 3 quarters ago, we saw a marked recovery in transactions and think about that as a proxy for units, but units followed similarly. Over the last 3 quarters, we've seen nice stability. And as we've said before, we define a healthy home improvement market as one where ticket and transaction are both positive. What we have seen on the good side here is that ticket and transaction have begun to converge and in fact, have sort of really much more tightly converged over the last 3 quarters.

好吧，我想說的是，在過去的三個季度裡，我們看到了最穩定的情況，而且——我想說，三個季度前，我們看到交易量明顯復甦，並認為以此作為單位的代理，但單位也遵循類似的原則。在過去的三個季度中，我們看到了良好的穩定性。正如我們之前所說，我們將健康的家裝市場定義為門票和交易都是正面的。我們在這裡看到的好的一面是，門票和交易已經開始融合，事實上，在過去的三個季度裡，融合得更緊密。

They were still both negative for the quarter, but that's really just reflective of the macro pressure that continues. From a geographic perspective, we aren't really necessarily able to tease out differences in recovery and transactions or units more of a national dynamic.

本季它們仍然為負值，但這實際上只是反映了持續存在的宏觀壓力。從地理角度來看，我們實際上不一定能夠梳理出復甦和交易或單位之間更多的國家動態差異。

Okay. Great. And then one for you, Richard. Just how should we think about the sensitivity of operating margins in fiscal '24 to every point of comp? Hypothetically, you guys are being a little bit conservative here on the down 1%. Just trying to think about how the model could respond.

好的。偉大的。然後給你一份，理查德。我們該如何考慮 24 財年營業利潤率對各個比較點的敏感度？假設說，你們對於 1% 的下降有點保守。只是想想模型會如何反應。

Sure. I mean the basics are you can imagine with no management intervention, the natural rule of leverage or deleverage is about 10 basis points per point of comp, up or down.

當然。我的意思是，基本原理是你可以想像，在沒有管理層幹預的情況下，槓桿或去槓桿化的自然規則是每點補償大約 10 個基點，無論向上還是向下。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Michael Lasser。

As we look back to the last couple of downturns in home improvement, there was a pretty robust recovery in the subsequent years after a few periods of negative comps. Are you seeing any evidence or signs that this recovery, whenever it happens, would be different?

當我們回顧過去幾次家居裝修行業的低迷時期時，在經歷了幾次負面影響之後，在接下來的幾年裡出現了相當強勁的復甦。您是否看到任何證據或跡象表明這種復甦無論何時發生都會有所不同？

We don't see why it would be different. I mean if anything, the underpinning of this market segment remains incredibly strong. When I step back and look at the macro, when you look at the influences that we watch most closely, home price appreciation, up 45-odd percent; home equity is up closer to 70%. That equity level, which is $10 trillion, $12 trillion increase since the pandemic has not been tapped. And in fact, HELOCs and cash-out refis are at multiple years low right now as interest rates went up over the last 2 years. So you have tremendous potential in an untapped balance sheet and equity position.

我們不明白為什麼會有所不同。我的意思是，如果有的話，這個細分市場的基礎仍然非常強大。當我退一步看宏觀時，當你看到我們最密切關注的影響時，房價上漲了 45% 以上；房屋淨值上漲接近70%。自疫情爆發以來，該股本水準已增加 10 兆美元，增加了 12 兆美元，但尚未被利用。事實上，隨著過去兩年利率的上升，HELOC 和現金再融資目前處於多年來的低點。因此，您在未開發的資產負債表和股權頭寸中擁有巨大的潛力。

In homes, we talk about the age of homes now well over 50% or over 40 years old. People are still working from home more than they were certainly pre-pandemic. So usage in homes, the fundamental shortage of homes were -- I've seen anywhere between 2 million and 6 million units short. And on a near term, even forecast for 2024, we'll build 200,000-odd units less than demand. So you're not even beginning to make up for that shortage in the near term. So you look at all those factors, millennials becoming -- a year or so way of becoming the single biggest source of customer segment spend in our space. They're prime household formation in homeownership ages. So I look at all those and say, huge opportunity.

在房屋方面，我們談論的房屋年齡現在遠超過 50% 或超過 40 年。與疫情大流行前相比，人們在家工作的情況仍然更多。因此，就家庭使用而言，住房的根本短缺是——我見過 200 萬到 600 萬套短缺。短期內，甚至預測到 2024 年，我們的產量將比需求量少 20 萬多個。所以短期內你甚至還沒有開始彌補這種短缺。因此，考慮到所有這些因素，千禧世代將在一年左右的時間內成為我們領域客戶細分支出的最大單一來源。他們是擁有住房時代的主要家庭組成部分。所以我看著所有這些並說，這是巨大的機會。

And we've mentioned this before, but the pandemic in a sense is a bit like a giant hurricane, right? I mean we had tremendous demand in growth in the segment, followed by a couple periods of moderation following that buildup. But as we watch every hurricane market, after you go through that cycle, it's as strong as ever. So with that backdrop of fundamental macros in the overall pandemic playing out over a 5-year period like a giant national storm, we have every reason to be extremely optimistic about the future.

我們之前已經提到過這一點，但從某種意義上說，這場大流行有點像一場巨大的颶風，對吧？我的意思是，我們對該領域的成長有巨大的需求，但在成長之後經歷了一段時期的放緩。但當我們觀察每個颶風市場時，在經歷了這個週期之後，它會像以前一樣強勁。因此，在整個大流行像一場全國性的巨大風暴一樣持續五年的基本宏觀背景下，我們有充分的理由對未來極為樂觀。

And that's why we've made the comments today about how happy we are of what we accomplished. The management team here and the store associates and store leadership and supply chain just did such a great job level-setting this business following that sort of pandemic storm, and we couldn't feel better about how we're positioned from an operational point of view. And then we're sticking with all the strategic investments, our eyes are still on the prize of the best interconnected shopping experience, building out the Pro ecosystem for complex Pros and then having such confidence in our model to start a reasonably meaningful store build program. So we feel really, really good, Michael. Thanks for the question.

這就是為什麼我們今天發表評論，表示我們對所取得的成就感到多麼高興。這裡的管理團隊、商店員工、商店領導層和供應鏈在這場大流行風暴之後做了非常出色的工作，為這項業務設定了水平，我們對從營運角度來看我們的定位感到非常滿意。看法。然後我們堅持所有的策略性投資，我們的目光仍然放在最佳互聯購物體驗的獎項上，為複雜的專業人士構建專業生態系統，然後對我們的模型充滿信心，啟動一個相當有意義的商店建設計劃。所以我們感覺非常非常好，邁克爾。謝謝你的提問。

That's very helpful, Ted. If I could just add one more question. It's on Richard's comment about the rule of thumb of 10 basis points of margin expansion for every 1 point of comp. And understanding that this is theoretical, does that move in a linear fashion, meaning if you get back to the trajectory of mid-single-digit comp eventually, that you would see a better-than-trend rate of margin expansion the higher the growth rate? And there was also a comment that rule of thumb would be outside of actions that would be taken. So can you discuss what actions might be taken to bend that curve on the upside over time?

這非常有幫助，特德。如果我可以再增加一個問題。這是理查德關於經驗法則的評論，即每 1 個百分點的利潤擴張 10 個基點。並理解這是理論上的，它是否以線性方式移動，這意味著如果您最終回到中個位數的軌跡，您將看到比趨勢更好的利潤擴張率，成長率越高速度？也有人評論說，經驗法則不屬於所採取的行動之內。那麼您能否討論一下可以採取哪些行動來隨著時間的推移使曲線向上彎曲？

Thanks, Michael. Well, first, I certainly want to center you back to the comments we made at the investor conference in June, where we call out a base case once we return to market normalization, a base case of 3% to 4% sales growth, flat gross margin, an assumption of operating expense and operating margin leverage and growth and EPS growth of mid- to high single-digit percentages. Within that, obviously, is sort of an implied leverage per comp point on our OpEx. I'm giving you a, what I would call, a loose rule of thumb. It would apply for the most part to our sort of business model today. It certainly applies in the past, and I would expect it to apply loosely in the future.

謝謝，麥可。好吧，首先，我當然想讓你們回到我們在6 月份投資者會議上發表的評論，我們在會上提出了一旦我們恢復市場正常化的基本情況，即銷售增長3% 至4% 的基本情況，持平毛利率，假設營業費用和營業利潤率槓桿以及成長和每股盈餘成長為中高個位數百分比。顯然，其中每個補償點對我們的營運支出都有隱含的槓桿作用。我給你一個我稱之為寬鬆的經驗法則。它在很大程度上適用於我們今天的商業模式。它當然適用於過去，而且我希望它在未來也能寬鬆地適用。

Embedded in that is a normal rate of productivity and efficiency that our teams deliver every single year. I mean underneath all this guidance and our results for 2023, which we were so pleased with, is an enormous amount of work on behalf of our team. Think about the efficiency in our supply chain, you think about the efficiencies that our merchants bring every year in product cost. Of particular note, the productivity in our stores with some of the tools that are unleashing the power of AI and putting that in the hands of our associates, those are standard fare for us. They feed into what I would call normal operating leverage for The Home Depot, and it's something that we've come to expect of ourselves. So that's a long way of saying, we always intend to lever OpEx at a certain point of sales growth. And I would stick with the basic rule of thumb, maybe higher, maybe slightly lower in some periods from time to time.

其中包含我們團隊每年交付的正常生產力和效率。我的意思是，在所有這些指導和 2023 年我們非常滿意的結果的背後，是我們團隊所做的大量工作。想想我們供應鏈的效率，想想我們的商家每年在產品成本上所帶來的效率。特別值得注意的是，我們商店的生產力以及一些工具正在釋放人工智慧的力量並將其交到我們的員工手中，這些對我們來說是標準費用。它們為我所說的家得寶的正常運作槓桿提供了動力，這也是我們對自己的期望。所以說起來很長，我們總是打算在銷售成長的某個點上利用營運支出。我會堅持基本的經驗法則，在某些時期可能會更高，也可能會略低。

On the question about what actions there may be, well, we always operate with a degree of financial flexibility in the P&L. Although I would tell you that we did our very best, and I think we accomplished our objective of reducing fixed costs towards the end of '23 that had built up during the pandemic, hence the $500 million in cost savings implied in our guide. There are always levers. We have to determine what environment we are operating in before we decide what levers to pull. And so for now, we've provided what we would call our central case for 2024, but we're going to manage the business with the best interest of our long-term shareholders in mind.

關於可能採取哪些行動的問題，我們始終在損益表中保持一定程度的財務彈性。儘管我會告訴你，我們已經盡力了，而且我認為我們在 23 世紀末實現了減少大流行期間積累的固定成本的目標，因此我們的指南中暗示了 5 億美元的成本節省。總有槓桿。在決定採取何種手段之前，我們必須確定我們所處的營運環境。因此，目前我們已經提供了 2024 年的核心案例，但我們將在管理業務時考慮長期股東的最佳利益。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Sigman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自塞思‧西格曼與巴克萊銀行的對話。

I wanted to follow up on macro and the margins. Just on the macro side, you gave us a number of the factors that are built-in here. I guess the real question is, what are the conditions needed for comps to actually get back to positive? Is it as simple as fully digesting the 2 years of lower housing turnover and that will happen at some point through this year? I guess ultimately, can you return to growth without existing home sales improving?

我想跟進宏觀和利潤。就宏觀方面而言，您向我們提供了一些內建因素。我想真正的問題是，對比真正恢復正值需要什麼條件？是不是就像完全消化兩年來較低的房屋成交量一樣簡單，而這種情況將在今年的某個時候發生？我想最終，在現房銷售沒有改善的情況下，你能恢復成長嗎？

Absolutely. I mean as we've said for the longest time, home turnover is a base of home improvement demand, but it's been pretty steady. If you look at 4.5-odd percent of housing stock is a multiyear percentage of turnover, and that equates to 5-ish million units. The reason we're calling out that as a factor in these last 2 years is the dramatic decrease. And there's definitely an understanding that there's an improvement in place cycle if you don't move and you stay in your house, but there's a lag effect. And arguably, that lag effect is a bit longer this time because of the interest rate environment and people are just being conservative of when they kick off a larger home improvement project in a home that they're going to ultimately stay in for a longer period of time.

絕對地。我的意思是，正如我們長期以來所說的那樣，房屋成交量是家居裝修需求的基礎，但它一直相當穩定。如果你看看 4.5% 的房屋存量佔多年營業額的百分比，這相當於 5 萬多套。我們之所以指出這一點，是因為過去兩年的急劇下降。人們肯定知道，如果你不搬家並留在家裡，地方週期就會有所改善，但存在滯後效應。可以說，由於利率環境的原因，這次的滯後效應會更長一些，而且人們只是在開始一個更大的家居裝修項目時保持保守，而他們最終將在其中居住更長的時間的時間。

So that's the dynamic of housing turnover. We think that plays out. We're literally at a 40-year low in turnover. Don't see that going lower. So you're going to cycle through that kind of acute 2-year pressure. And then do we get back to growth? Absolutely. I'd say we have a neutral look on housing for 2024. We don't think there's incremental pressure nor do we think that we're quite ready for a hockey stick recovery. Richard has been talking for some time the Fed's stance of higher for longer. I think now we have an appreciation that longer is going to go through the first half of this year. So even a lowering cycle in the back half, there's some timing effect to get mortgages, move homes, take a HELOC loan out, et cetera, to get a bigger project going. So that's why we're kind of calling for a slighter moderation to continue into '24.

這就是房屋成交量的動態。我們認為這會發揮作用。我們的營業額確實處於 40 年來的最低點。不認為會下降。因此，你將經歷這種為期兩年的嚴峻壓力。然後我們會恢復成長嗎？絕對地。我想說的是，我們對 2024 年的房屋市場持中性看法。我們認為壓力不會增加，也不認為我們已經為曲棍球棒式復甦做好了準備。一段時間以來，理查德一直在談論聯準會的長期走高立場。我認為現在我們認識到今年上半年將會持續更長的時間。因此，即使是後半段的降息週期，獲得抵押貸款、搬家、獲得 HELOC 貸款等也會產生一些時間效應，以啟動更大的專案。這就是為什麼我們呼籲在 24 世紀繼續保持稍微溫和的態度。

But as we said, the back half is marginally stronger. And we think all the macros line up for return to normalcy following that. And with the capabilities that we're building, we're taking share today with x percent of these capabilities complete. Super optimistic about how we're hitting the ground running as we continue to build going into a stronger market and the share gain opportunity.

但正如我們所說，後半部稍強。我們認為所有巨集都將在此之後恢復正常。憑藉我們正在建立的功能，我們今天將佔據這些功能的 x% 的份額。隨著我們繼續進入更強大的市場並獲得份額成長機會，我們對我們的起步感到非常樂觀。

Okay. Just one follow-up. Richard, you gave us a bunch of sensitivity numbers around the EBIT margins. I guess more specifically on SG&A for this year. I realize there's a number of moving pieces that come back. But can you give us a feel for what base underlying SG&A growth should look like this year? I think the headline guidance is around 4% growth. But maybe what is it excluding incentive comp and some of the costs that you're lapping with the benefits that you're lapping, just so we could think about that?

好的。只是一個後續行動。理查德，您給了我們一堆關於息稅前利潤率的敏感度數字。我想更具體地說是今年的SG&A。我意識到有很多感人的作品又回來了。但您能否讓我們了解一下今年的 SG&A 成長基礎應該是什麼樣子？我認為整體指引是 4% 左右的成長。但也許不包括激勵補償和一些你正在享受的福利的成本，只是為了讓我們考慮一下？

Yes. I'd tell you, the best way to look at this is that we are now -- our P&L provides you with an appropriate jumping-off point for your models. There's a lot of noise in operating expense. If you think about the geography of the settlement in Q1, if you think about the geography of costs that we incurred, then you think about the geography of the $500 million in cost out, 2/3 of which will be realized in OpEx, 1/3 of which will be realized in cost of goods sold, and you just have a lot of noise. Again, the main driver of operating expense growth is going to be just at inflation on our base of operating expenses. And we think that if you look at our gross margin and our operating margin guide, these offer you the appropriate jumping-off points for your modeling.

是的。我想告訴你，看待這個問題的最佳方式是我們現在——我們的損益表為您的模型提供了一個合適的起點。營運費用中有很多噪音。如果您考慮第一季和解的地理位置，如果您考慮我們產生的成本的地理位置，那麼您會考慮 5 億美元成本支出的地理位置，其中 2/3 將在營運支出中實現，1其中/3將在銷售商品成本中實現，而你就會產生很多噪音。同樣，營業費用成長的主要驅動力將只是我們營業費用基礎上的通貨膨脹。我們認為，如果您查看我們的毛利率和營業利潤率指南，它們將為您的建模提供適當的起點。

Our final question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.

我們的最後一個問題來自史蒂文·福布斯與古根漢的對話。

I'll keep it to one, just to end the call here. I wanted to follow up on the complex Pro, Ted. I appreciate the comments in your prepared remarks around trade credit being piloted. Curious if you can maybe expand on some early learnings around those newer features being launched as we think through what the sort of managed account customer can contribute to growth over the coming years here.

我會把它保留為一，只是為了在這裡結束通話。我想跟進複雜的 Pro，Ted。我感謝您在準備好的評論中就貿易信貸試點發表的評論。很好奇，當我們思考管理帳戶客戶的類型可以為未來幾年的成長做出貢獻時，您是否可以擴展有關正在推出的這些新功能的一些早期知識。

Yes, I'll kick that off. Thanks, Ted. First of all, we're in our early stages. And just as a reminder as well, HD Supply does trade credit today. So we're -- as we architect our program, there's a lot of learnings there. But what -- to me, Chip is in the room. And Chip, you have a lot of experience here with trade credit and his experience is helping us also form some of the intricacies of how we think about it. So I'll turn it over to Chip.

是的，我會開始。謝謝，泰德。首先，我們還處於早期階段。同樣提醒您的是，HD Supply 今天提供貿易信貸。因此，當我們設計我們的程式時，我們學到了很多。但對我來說，奇普就在房間裡。奇普，你在貿易信用方面擁有豐富的經驗，他的經驗也幫助我們形成了一些複雜的想法。所以我會把它交給Chip。

Yes. Thanks, Steven. Trade credit is definitely a necessary capability that we're building, really focused on that complex project. So as we invest in our Pros and our capabilities to be able to service their larger jobs, trade credit is definitely necessary. So we're in early days, as Ann mentioned, piloting a number of different customers, but plan to grow and expand that through the next couple of quarters as we automate that into our selling system as well.

是的。謝謝，史蒂文。貿易信貸絕對是我們正在建立的必要能力，真正專注於這個複雜的項目。因此，當我們投資於我們的專業人士和我們能夠為其更大的工作提供服務的能力時，貿易信貸絕對是必要的。因此，正如安提到的那樣，我們還處於早期階段，正在試點一些不同的客戶，但計劃在接下來的幾個季度中擴大和擴大這一範圍，因為我們也將其自動化到我們的銷售系統中。

Ms. Janci, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Janci 女士，我現在想把發言權交還給您，請您發表結束語。

Thanks, Christine, and thank you, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter call in May.

謝謝克里斯汀，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在五月的第一季電話會議上與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。