家得寶 (HD) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Home Depot First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎來到 Home Depot 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Isabel Janci. Please go ahead.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人 Isabel Janci。請繼續。

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Home Depot's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call.

謝謝你，克里斯汀，大家早上好。歡迎來到 Home Depot 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。

Joining us on our call today are Ted Decker, Chair, President and CEO; Billy Bastek, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; Ann-Marie Campbell, Executive Vice President of U.S. Stores and International Operations; and Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions. (Operator Instructions) If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations department at (770) 384-2387.

主席、總裁兼首席執行官泰德·德克爾 (Ted Decker) 今天加入我們的電話會議；營銷執行副總裁 Billy Bastek；美國商店和國際運營執行副總裁 Ann-Marie Campbell；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Richard McPhail。在我們準備好的發言之後，電話會議將公開提問。 （操作員說明）如果我們在通話期間無法回答您的問題，請致電 (770) 384-2387 聯繫我們的投資者關係部門。

Before I turn the call over to Ted, let me remind you that today's press release and presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我將電話轉給 Ted 之前，讓我提醒您，今天的新聞稿和我們的高管所做的介紹包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。

Today's presentations will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website.

今天的演講還將包括某些非 GAAP 措施。我們的網站上提供了這些措施的協調。

Now let me turn the call over to Ted.

現在讓我把電話轉給泰德。

Thank you, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. Over the past 3 years, we grew our business $47 billion or 43%. After this period of unprecedented growth, we expect the demand would moderate in fiscal 2023, which our first quarter results reflect.

謝謝伊莎貝爾，大家早上好。在過去 3 年中，我們的業務增長了 470 億美元或 43%。在這段前所未有的增長期之後，我們預計需求將在 2023 財年放緩，我們的第一季度業績反映了這一點。

Sales for the first quarter were $37.3 billion, down 4.2% from the same period last year. Comp sales declined 4.5% from the same period last year, and our U.S. stores had negative comps of 4.6%. Diluted earnings per share were $3.82 in the first quarter compared to $4.09 in the first quarter last year.

第一季度銷售額為 373 億美元，同比下降 4.2%。比較銷售額比去年同期下降了 4.5%，我們的美國商店的銷售額為 4.6%。第一季度稀釋後每股收益為 3.82 美元，而去年第一季度為 4.09 美元。

Our sales for the quarter were below our expectations, primarily driven by lumber deflation and unfavorable weather, particularly in our Western division as extreme weather events in California disproportionately impacted our results. As you will hear from Billy, where weather was favorable, we saw strength in key spring-related categories such as live goods and other garden-related categories.

我們本季度的銷售額低於我們的預期，這主要是受木材通縮和不利天氣的推動，特別是在我們的西部部門，因為加利福尼亞的極端天氣事件對我們的業績產生了不成比例的影響。正如您從 Billy 那裡聽到的那樣，那裡的天氣狀況良好，我們看到了與春季相關的關鍵類別的實力，例如生活用品和其他與花園相關的類別。

As we look beyond weather and lumber deflation, our underlying performance in the quarter was mixed. We saw more pressure across the business compared to what we observed when we reported fourth quarter results a few months ago. While there was relative strength in project-related categories like building materials, plumbing and hardware we had many departments with negative comps in the quarter and continue to see pressure in a number of big-ticket discretionary categories.

當我們超越天氣和木材通貨緊縮時，我們在本季度的基本表現喜憂參半。與幾個月前我們報告第四季度業績時所觀察到的情況相比，我們看到整個業務的壓力更大。雖然在建築材料、管道和硬件等項目相關類別中存在相對優勢，但我們有許多部門在本季度的收入為負，並且繼續看到一些高價可自由支配類別的壓力。

DIY customers outperformed the Pro in the quarter, but both were negative. While internal and external surveys suggest that Pro backlogs are still healthy and elevated relative to historical norms, they are lower than they were a year ago. Additionally, recent external data points suggests that the types of projects in these backlogs are changing from large-scale remodels to smaller projects.

DIY 客戶在本季度的表現優於 Pro，但均為負數。雖然內部和外部調查表明 Pro 積壓工作仍然健康且相對於歷史標準有所增加，但它們低於一年前的水平。此外，最近的外部數據點表明，這些待辦事項中的項目類型正在從大型改建項目轉變為小型項目。

Though we are only one quarter into the year, we believe the underperformance this quarter relative to our expectations, lumber deflation, and continued uncertainty around underlying demand, warrants more cautious sales outlook for the remainder of the year. Richard will take you through the details in a moment, but we are now guiding to a comp sales decline between 2% and 5%. Reflecting this updated comp guidance, we now expect our operating margin rate to be between 14.3% and 14% and earnings per share to decline between 7% and 13%.

雖然今年才剛剛過去一個季度，但我們認為本季度的表現低於我們的預期、木材通貨緊縮以及潛在需求的持續不確定性，因此需要對今年剩餘時間的銷售前景更加謹慎。理查德稍後會帶您了解詳細信息，但我們現在指導的是 comp 銷售額下降 2% 到 5%。反映這一更新後的公司指南，我們現在預計我們的營業利潤率將在 14.3% 至 14% 之間，每股收益將下降 7% 至 13%。

We continue to navigate a unique environment. We remain agile and respond to evolving customer dynamics while always being an advocate for value. In addition, we feel confident that the investments we have made in wage are driving the intended results.

我們繼續在一個獨特的環境中航行。我們保持敏捷並響應不斷變化的客戶動態，同時始終倡導價值。此外，我們相信我們在工資方面的投資正在推動預期結果。

As Ann will discuss, in the short time frame since our most recent wage enhancements took effect we are attracting a greater number of qualified applicants and attrition is down.

正如 Ann 將討論的那樣，在我們最近的工資提高生效後的短時間內，我們吸引了更多合格的申請人，並且人員流失率下降了。

Lastly, and as you would expect, we will continue to focus on driving productivity and efficiency across the business. While the near-term environment is uncertain, we remain bullish on the medium- to long-term outlook for home improvement and our ability to grow share in this large and fragmented market. We look forward to sharing our perspective on the many opportunities ahead when we meet at our Investor and Analyst conference coming up on June 13.

最後，正如您所期望的那樣，我們將繼續專注於提高整個企業的生產力和效率。雖然近期環境不確定，但我們仍然看好家居裝修的中長期前景以及我們在這個龐大而分散的市場中擴大份額的能力。我們期待在 6 月 13 日舉行的投資者和分析師會議上會面時分享我們對未來許多機會的看法。

Our team continues to focus on what is most important, our associates and customers. Our merchants, store MET teams, supplier partners and supply chain teams did an outstanding job delivering value and service to our customers throughout the quarter.

我們的團隊繼續專注於最重要的事情，即我們的員工和客戶。我們的商家、商店 MET 團隊、供應商合作夥伴和供應鏈團隊在整個季度為我們的客戶提供價值和服務方面做得非常出色。

I'd like to close by thanking them for their dedication and hard work. I'd also like to introduce Billy Bastek, who is recently named EVP of Merchandising. Billy is a 33-year veteran of the Home Depot and brings tremendous experience to the role, having spent his entire career with us in various roles of increasing responsibility throughout the merchandising organization. Not only is Billy a world-class merchant leader, he's also a fantastic steward of our culture. It is my pleasure to welcome him to the call today.

最後，我想感謝他們的奉獻精神和辛勤工作。我還想介紹 Billy Bastek，他最近被任命為營銷執行副總裁。 Billy 在 Home Depot 工作了 33 年，為這個職位帶來了豐富的經驗，他的整個職業生涯都在我們這裡度過，擔任過各種職務，在整個銷售組織中承擔越來越多的責任。比利不僅是世界級的商業領袖，還是我們文化的出色管理者。我很高興歡迎他參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you, Ted, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by also thanking all of our associates and supplier partners for their ongoing commitment to serving our customers and communities. As you heard from Ted, during the first quarter, our sales were below our expectations, primarily driven by lumber deflation and unfavorable weather. We also saw a continuation of the trend we observed in the fourth quarter with consumers pulling back on big ticket and some discretionary type purchases. However, where weather was favorable, we saw strength in smaller ticket outdoor projects.

謝謝你，泰德，大家早上好。首先，我還要感謝我們所有的員工和供應商合作夥伴，感謝他們一直致力於為我們的客戶和社區提供服務。正如您從 Ted 那裡聽說的那樣，在第一季度，我們的銷售額低於預期，這主要是由於木材通貨緊縮和不利天氣造成的。我們還看到了我們在第四季度觀察到的趨勢的延續，消費者減少了大件商品和一些非必需品的購買。然而，在天氣有利的地方，我們看到了小型戶外項目的優勢。

Turning to our department comp performance for the first quarter. 4 of our 14 merchandising departments posted positive comps, which were building materials, hardware, plumbing and millwork. During the first quarter, our comp average ticket increased 0.2% and comp transactions decreased 5%. Excluding core commodities comp average ticket was primarily impacted by inflation across several product categories as well as the demand for new and innovative products.

轉向我們部門第一季度的業績表現。我們的 14 個銷售部門中有 4 個發布了積極的補償，它們是建築材料、硬件、管道和木製品。第一季度，我們的平均票價增加了 0.2%，交易量下降了 5%。不包括核心商品的平均票價主要受到多個產品類別的通貨膨脹以及對新產品和創新產品需求的影響。

Deflation from core commodity categories negatively impacted our average ticket growth by approximately 335 basis points during the first quarter driven primarily by deflation in lumber. During the first quarter, we saw a significant decline in lumber prices relative to a year ago. As an example, on average, framing lumber was approximately $420 per thousand board feet compared to approximately $1,170 in the first quarter of 2022, which is a decrease of 64%.

核心商品類別的通貨緊縮在第一季度對我們的平均票價增長產生了負面影響約 335 個基點，這主要是由於木材的通貨緊縮。在第一季度，我們看到木材價格與一年前相比大幅下降。例如，平均而言，框架木材約為每千板英尺 420 美元，而 2022 年第一季度約為 1,170 美元，下降了 64%。

Turning to total company online sales. Sales leveraging our digital platforms decreased approximately 2.9% compared to the first quarter of last year. For those customers that chose to transact with us online during the first quarter, over 45% of our online orders were fulfilled through our stores. DIY customers outperformed the Pro in the quarter, but both were negative. Pro results experienced a disproportionate impact as a result of lumber deflation and a wet start spring -- wet start to spring negatively impacted both customer cohorts.

轉向公司在線總銷售額。與去年第一季度相比，利用我們數字平台的銷售額下降了約 2.9%。對於那些在第一季度選擇與我們在線交易的客戶，我們超過 45% 的在線訂單是通過我們的商店完成的。 DIY 客戶在本季度的表現優於 Pro，但均為負數。由於木材通縮和潮濕的春季開始，專業結果受到了不成比例的影響——潮濕的春季開始對兩個客戶群產生了負面影響。

Big ticket comp transactions or those over $1,000 were down 6.5% compared to the first quarter of last year. We saw some big ticket strength across Pro-heavy categories like portable power, gypsum and pipe and fittings. After a couple of years of unprecedented demand in the home improvement market, we continue to see softness in big-ticket discretionary categories like patio, grills and appliances that likely reflects deferral of these single item purchases and pull forward.

與去年第一季度相比，大額補償交易或超過 1,000 美元的交易下降了 6.5%。我們在便攜式電源、石膏、管道和配件等專業重型類別中看到了一些強大的實力。在經歷了幾年家居裝修市場前所未有的需求之後，我們繼續看到露台、烤架和電器等大件非必需品類別的疲軟，這可能反映了這些單品採購的推遲和向前推進。

In addition, we've seen demand soften across other parts of the business, including flooring, kitchen and bath. This softer demand may reflect consumers moving away from larger to smaller projects. And while there are factors impacting the home improvement market, our merchandising organization will continue to focus on being our customers' advocate for value. This means continuing to provide a broad assortment of best-in-class products that are in stock and available for our customers when they need it.

此外，我們還看到該業務其他部分的需求疲軟，包括地板、廚房和浴室。這種疲軟的需求可能反映出消費者從較大的項目轉向較小的項目。儘管有一些因素會影響家居裝修市場，但我們的銷售組織將繼續專注於成為客戶的價值倡導者。這意味著繼續提供種類繁多的一流產品，這些產品有現貨，可在客戶需要時提供。

We will also continue to lean into products that simplify the project, saving our customers time and money. That's why I'm so excited about the innovation we're bringing to the market, whether it's Leviton's Decora Edge, Viega Copper press fittings or the launch of BEHR DYNASTY exterior paint, just to name a few.

我們還將繼續專注於簡化項目的產品，為我們的客戶節省時間和金錢。這就是為什麼我對我們推向市場的創新感到如此興奮，無論是 Leviton 的 Decora Edge、Viega Copper 壓裝配件還是 BEHR DYNASTY 外牆塗料的推出，僅舉幾例。

At our upcoming investor conference, I look forward to sharing more about these products and some of my favorite product innovations with you in-person. It's the power of our vendor relationships, coupled with our best-in-class merchant organization that allows us to offer our customers the best brands with the most innovation to solve pain points, increase functionality or enhanced performance at the best value in the market.

在我們即將舉行的投資者會議上，我期待與您當面分享更多關於這些產品和我最喜歡的一些產品創新的信息。正是我們供應商關係的力量，再加上我們一流的商業組織，使我們能夠以最具市場價值的方式為客戶提供最具創新性的最佳品牌，以解決痛點、增加功能或增強性能。

Now let's turn our attention to spring. While we've had a slower start to the season, we continue to be excited about the lineup of products we have for our customers and remain ready to help them with their outdoor projects or outdoor living needs. As you've heard us say many times, we have a great lineup of outdoor power products and our assortment of RYOBI, Milwaukee, DEWALT and Makita offers something for everyone building on an ecosystem of innovative tools powered by the same battery platforms, and our live goods look incredible. We're ready for spring with everything from shrubs to a variety of flowers, herbs, vegetables for every type of gardener.

現在讓我們把注意力轉向春天。雖然我們的季節開局較慢，但我們仍然對我們為客戶提供的產品系列感到興奮，並隨時準備幫助他們完成戶外項目或戶外生活需求。正如您多次聽到我們所說的那樣，我們擁有豐富的戶外電源產品系列，我們的 RYOBI、Milwaukee、DEWALT 和 Makita 產品系列為每個人提供了一些東西，這些產品建立在由相同電池平台提供動力的創新工俱生態系統的基礎上，我們的活貨看起來不可思議。我們準備好迎接春天，從灌木到各種花卉、香草、蔬菜，適合各種類型的園丁。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Ann.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給安。

Thanks, Billy, and good morning, everyone. We believe that in order to provide the best customer experience, we must focus on cultivating the best associate experience in retail. Last quarter, I spoke about the investments we have made to make it easier for associates to succeed at the Home Depot. We also announced that we would be investing approximately $1 billion in annualized compensation for frontline hourly associates.

謝謝，比利，大家早上好。我們相信，為了提供最佳的客戶體驗，我們必須專注於培養最佳的零售店員體驗。上個季度，我談到了我們為使員工更容易在 Home Depot 取得成功而進行的投資。我們還宣布，我們將投資約 10 億美元用於一線小時工的年化薪酬。

Today, I want to update you on key areas of improvement that we've seen thus far. Our ability to attract qualified pools of candidates and higher on the top tier of these pools has improved even in our higher-volume stores. And in March, we saw the greatest year-over-year improvement in our attrition rates across all associated tenure cohorts that we have seen in some time.

今天，我想向您介紹迄今為止我們看到的關鍵改進領域。即使在我們銷量較高的商店中，我們吸引合格候選人和這些候選人的頂級人才的能力也有所提高。在 3 月份，我們看到了一段時間以來我們在所有相關任期隊列中的流失率的最大同比改善。

As a result, we are seeing improvements in key customer service metrics as well as benefits to our operations in the form of consistent staffing and less safety incidents across all our regions. These improvements are exactly what we set out to achieve with this wage investment. The consistency and talent of our workforce is an important foundation for driving both customer service and productivity.

因此，我們看到了關鍵客戶服務指標的改善，以及我們在所有地區以一致的人員配置和更少的安全事故形式為我們的運營帶來的好處。這些改進正是我們打算通過這項工資投資實現的目標。我們員工隊伍的一致性和才能是推動客戶服務和生產力的重要基礎。

It also gives us the ability and confidence to accelerate other key initiatives that are yielding positive results with respect to customer service and productivity. We have implemented changes to our order fulfillment processes to drive speed and efficiency when picking and staging orders for customers.

它還使我們有能力和信心加快其他在客戶服務和生產力方面產生積極成果的關鍵舉措。我們已經對訂單履行流程進行了更改，以提高為客戶挑选和分期訂單時的速度和效率。

Historically, we have allocated fulfillment hours based on overall order volume. Now we have transitioned to allocating hours more accurately based on the types of products being picked. Just for example, it takes us less time to pick and stage the paint works versus a patio set. We are also grouping fulfillment orders in batches so that associates can pick multiple orders at one time. We also continue to focus on simplification. We've talked about leveraging the Sidekick application to help associates prioritize the highest value task more effectively.

過去，我們根據總訂單量分配履行時間。現在，我們已經過渡到根據所揀選的產品類型更準確地分配時間。舉例來說，與庭院佈景相比，我們挑选和佈置油漆作品花費的時間更少。我們還分批對履行訂單進行分組，以便員工可以一次挑選多個訂單。我們還繼續專注於簡化。我們已經討論了利用 Sidekick 應用程序來幫助員工更有效地確定最高價值任務的優先級。

Powered by our machine learning logic, Sidekick directs associates to key bays where on-shelf availability is low or out exist. Since Sidekick was rolled out last year, we have seen improvement in our on-shelf availability for all SKUs, but we have seen the most improvement in our high-velocity SKUs or the products that are key drivers of our business. This has translated to an increase of approximately 300 basis points in our shelf availability customer service scores. While this app is helping us to be more efficient with our task in activity and improving our customer experience in the process, Sidekick is just getting started. These initiatives are just a few examples of the many different types of projects that can drive significant impacts for customers, our associates and our shareholders.

在我們的機器學習邏輯的支持下，Sidekick 將員工引導至貨架可用性低或不存在的關鍵區域。自去年推出 Sidekick 以來，我們發現所有 SKU 的上架可用性都有所改善，但我們看到高速 SKU 或作為我們業務關鍵驅動力的產品的改進最大。這已轉化為我們的貨架可用性客戶服務評分增加了大約 300 個基點。雖然此應用程序正在幫助我們更高效地完成活動任務並在此過程中改善我們的客戶體驗，但 Sidekick 才剛剛起步。這些舉措只是眾多不同類型項目中的幾個例子，這些項目可以對客戶、我們的員工和股東產生重大影響。

I am so excited about all that our store teams are dealing to focus on both the customer and associate experience and look forward to sharing a lot more in a few weeks. None of this would be possible without our amazing associates, and I want to thank them all for what they do every day to take care of our customers.

我對我們的商店團隊正在處理的所有事情感到非常興奮，以專注於客戶和員工的體驗，並期待在幾週內分享更多內容。如果沒有我們出色的員工，這一切都不可能實現，我要感謝他們每天為照顧我們的客戶所做的一切。

With that, let me turn the call over to Richard.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給理查德。

Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, total sales were $37.3 billion a decrease of approximately $1.7 billion or 4.2% from last year. During the first quarter, our total company comps were negative 4.5% with comps of negative 2.5% in February, negative 7.5% in March and negative 3.7% in April.

謝謝你，安，大家早上好。第一季度，總銷售額為 373 億美元，比去年減少約 17 億美元或 4.2%。第一季度，我們的公司總收入為負 4.5%，其中 2 月份為負 2.5%，3 月份為負 7.5%，4 月份為負 3.7%。

Comps in the U.S. were negative 4.6% for the quarter with comps of negative 2.8% in February, negative 7.5% in March and negative 3.7% in April. Our first quarter comp sales missed our own expectations, particularly in the months of March and April, driven primarily by 2 notable factors.

美國本季度的收入為負 4.6%，其中 2 月份為負 2.8%，3 月份為負 7.5%，4 月份為負 3.7%。我們第一季度的銷售額低於我們自己的預期，尤其是在 3 月和 4 月，主要受兩個顯著因素的推動。

First, lumber deflation drove a negative comp impact of approximately 220 basis points versus the first quarter of 2022. Second, unfavorable weather, particularly in our Western division further impacted our results. In the first quarter, our gross margin was 33.7% a decrease of 8 basis points from the first quarter last year, primarily driven by increased pressure from shrink. We continue to successfully offset supply chain and product cost pressures while maintaining our position as the customer's advocate for value.

首先，與 2022 年第一季度相比，木材通貨緊縮帶來了大約 220 個基點的負面影響。其次，不利的天氣，尤其是在我們的西部地區，進一步影響了我們的業績。第一季度，我們的毛利率為 33.7%，比去年第一季度下降 8 個基點，主要是受收縮壓力增加的推動。我們繼續成功抵消供應鍊和產品成本壓力，同時保持我們作為客戶價值倡導者的地位。

During the first quarter, operating expense as a percent of sales increased approximately 25 basis points to 18.8% compared to the first quarter of 2022. Our operating expense performance during the first quarter reflects the planned compensation increases announced during our fourth quarter 2022 call as well as a onetime benefit from a legal settlement.

在第一季度，營業費用佔銷售額的百分比與 2022 年第一季度相比增加了約 25 個基點，達到 18.8%。我們在第一季度的營業費用表現反映了我們在 2022 年第四季度電話會議上宣布的計劃薪酬增長以及作為從法律和解中獲得的一次性利益。

Our operating margin for the first quarter was 14.9% compared to 15.2% in the first quarter of 2022. Interest and other expense for the first quarter increased by $72 million to $441 million due primarily to interest on our floating rate debt as well as higher debt balances than a year ago.

我們第一季度的營業利潤率為 14.9%，而 2022 年第一季度為 15.2%。第一季度的利息和其他費用增加了 7200 萬美元，達到 4.41 億美元，這主要是由於我們的浮動利率債務利息以及更高的債務餘額比一年前。

In the first quarter, our effective tax rate was 24.2%, up from 23.9% in the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Our diluted earnings per share for the first quarter was $3.82, a decrease of 6.6% compared to the first quarter of 2022. During the first quarter, we opened 2 new stores, bringing our total store count to 2,324. Retail selling square footage was approximately 241 million square feet. At the end of the quarter, merchandise inventories were $25.4 billion, essentially flat compared to the first quarter of 2022 and inventory turns were 3.9x down from 4.4x last year.

第一季度，我們的有效稅率為 24.2%，高於 2022 財年第一季度的 23.9%。我們第一季度的攤薄後每股收益為 3.82 美元，與 2022 年第一季度相比下降了 6.6%。第一季度，我們開設了 2 家新店，使我們的店鋪總數達到 2,324 家。零售面積約為 2.41 億平方英尺。本季度末，商品庫存為 254 億美元，與 2022 年第一季度基本持平，庫存周轉率比去年的 4.4 倍下降了 3.9 倍。

Turning to capital allocation. After investing in our business and paying our dividend, it is our intent to return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. During the first quarter, we invested approximately $900 million back into our business in the form of capital expenditures. And during the quarter, we paid approximately $2.1 billion in dividends to our shareholders, and we returned approximately $3 billion to shareholders in the form of share repurchases. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was approximately 43.6%, down from 45.3% in the first quarter of fiscal 2022.

轉向資本配置。在投資我們的業務並支付股息後，我們打算以股份回購的形式將多餘的現金返還給股東。第一季度，我們以資本支出的形式向我們的業務投資了大約 9 億美元。在本季度，我們向股東支付了約 21 億美元的股息，並以股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 30 億美元。根據過去 12 個月期初和期末長期債務和股權的平均值計算，投資資本回報率約為 43.6%，低於 2022 財年第一季度的 45.3%。

Now I will comment on our guidance for fiscal 2023. As you may recall, last quarter, we provided flat sales and comp guidance for fiscal 2023. As we mentioned last quarter, our guidance did not include potential impacts from lumber deflation, which we noted could negatively impact our performance for the quarter and the year.

現在我將評論我們對 2023 財年的指導。您可能還記得，上個季度，我們提供了 2023 財年的持平銷售和補償指導。正如我們上個季度提到的，我們的指導不包括木材通縮的潛在影響，我們注意到這一點可能會對我們本季度和本年度的業績產生負面影響。

As a result, lumber negatively impacted comps by approximately 220 basis points in the first quarter. Given the negative impact of the first quarter sales from lumber and weather, further softening of demand relative to our expectations and continued uncertainty regarding consumer demand patterns, we are updating our guidance to reflect a range of potential outcomes. We now expect fiscal 2023 sales and comp sales to decline between 2% and 5%.

因此，木材在第一季度對 comp 產生了大約 220 個基點的負面影響。鑑於木材和天氣對第一季度銷售的負面影響、需求相對於我們的預期進一步疲軟以及消費者需求模式的持續不確定性，我們正在更新我們的指導以反映一系列潛在結果。我們現在預計 2023 財年的銷售額和復合銷售額將下降 2% 至 5%。

As a result of the change in our sales outlook, we are now targeting an operating margin between 14.3% and 14.0% for the year. Our effective tax rate is targeted at approximately 24.5%. We expect interest expense of approximately $1.8 billion, and we are anticipating between a 7% and 13% decline in diluted earnings per share compared to fiscal 2022.

由於我們銷售前景的變化，我們現在的目標是今年的營業利潤率在 14.3% 到 14.0% 之間。我們的實際稅率目標是大約 24.5%。我們預計利息支出約為 18 億美元，與 2022 財年相比，我們預計攤薄後每股收益將下降 7% 至 13%。

As Ted mentioned, we expected 2023 to be a year of moderation in the home improvement market, driven by monetary policy actions to dampen overall consumer demand. In our view, we are in a transitional period in the consumer economy. Setting the short-term impacts of monetary policy aside, we know that the home improvement customer is healthy and we believe the medium- to long-term underlying fundamentals of home improvement make it one of the most attractive markets in retail and the economy as a whole.

正如 Ted 所提到的，我們預計 2023 年將是家居裝修市場放緩的一年，這是受貨幣政策行動抑制整體消費需求的推動。我們認為，我們正處於消費經濟的轉型期。拋開貨幣政策的短期影響，我們知道家裝客戶是健康的，我們相信家裝的中長期基本面使其成為零售和經濟中最具吸引力的市場之一所有的。

We believe that we are well positioned to meet the needs of our customers with a broad assortment of products, strong in-stock levels and knowledgeable associates. The investments we've made in our business have enabled agility in our operating model. As we look forward, we will continue to prudently invest to strengthen our competitive position, leverage our scale and low-cost position to outperform our market and deliver shareholder value.

我們相信，我們有能力通過種類繁多的產品、強大的庫存水平和知識淵博的員工來滿足客戶的需求。我們對業務的投資使我們的運營模式更加靈活。展望未來，我們將繼續審慎投資以加強我們的競爭地位，利用我們的規模和低成本優勢跑贏市場並為股東創造價值。

Thank you for your participation in today's call. And Christine, we are now ready for questions.

感謝您參與今天的電話會議。 Christine，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Chris Horvers。

So I have 2 questions on the ticket side. Average ticket was flat in the first quarter. I think last year, you had same-SKU inflation ex commodity of the high single digits all year. So how much of the ticket deceleration relative to 1Q last year was just simply a same SKU disinflation on a year-over-year basis versus things like project size and trade down?

所以我在票務方面有 2 個問題。第一季度平均票價持平。我認為去年，你有全年高個位數的相同 SKU 商品通貨膨脹率。那麼，相對於去年第一季度的門票減速，有多少僅僅是與去年同期相比相同的 SKU 通貨緊縮與項目規模和交易減少等因素有關？

Chris, we are still seeing inflation in same SKU items. So putting commodity aside that we -- we gave the example of lumber being down 64%. We're still experiencing inflation in our ticket and our average unit retail. So the non-index or the non-commodity prices are still lapping cost in price from last year. And then there's still moderate inflation live this year in 2023. So inflation is still present in the average ticket.

克里斯，我們仍然看到相同 SKU 商品的通貨膨脹。因此，撇開商品不談，我們舉了木材下降 64% 的例子。我們的機票和平均單位零售價仍在經歷通貨膨脹。因此，非指數或非商品價格仍然在去年的價格成本上徘徊。然後到 2023 年，今年仍然存在適度的通貨膨脹。因此通貨膨脹仍然存在於平均票價中。

So as you look ahead, and how are you thinking about how much of a headwind that becomes over the year? And what should you incorporate in the guidance? And then related to that, transactions are sort of back to '19 levels. But in the first quarter, tickets still up 37% versus the first quarter of '19. I'm guessing maybe 1/3 of that is same SKU. So just trying to put into context the risk around ticket in terms of disinflation and then also project size and trade down?

因此，當您展望未來時，您如何看待這一年的逆風有多大？您應該在指南中包含什麼？然後與此相關的是，交易有點回到了 19 年的水平。但在第一季度，與 19 年第一季度相比，門票仍然上漲了 37%。我猜其中可能有 1/3 是相同的 SKU。因此，只是試圖將通貨緊縮方面的門票風險放在背景中，然後再考慮項目規模和降價交易？

Right. Well, it's something we clearly look at carefully. There certainly has been a lot of cumulative inflation in price in our average unit retail in our ticket but that is not something that we are expecting to broadly deflate.

正確的。好吧，這是我們仔細觀察的事情。我們門票的平均單位零售價格肯定有很多累積通脹，但這並不是我們期望廣泛縮小的東西。

Now commodity prices, those prices essentially weekly, and we will price those up or down on a weekly basis. But price levels in a number of our products have increased and been established over the past 3 years. Embedded in that higher ticket is innovation. So when you think of ticket, a lot of that is not just cost and price, it's trading up to better product. When you think of battery-powered outdoor power equipment, what we've done in the paint department with better and better paints there's innovation and with innovation, it's usually higher price points. So we don't see those deflating broadly as we work through this period of moderation.

現在商品價格，這些價格基本上是每週一次，我們將每週對這些價格進行上調或下調。但在過去 3 年中，我們許多產品的價格水平已經上漲並確立下來。嵌入在更高的門票中的是創新。因此，當您想到門票時，其中很多不僅僅是成本和價格，而是換取更好的產品。當您想到電池供電的戶外動力設備時，我們在油漆部門所做的工作越來越好，這就是創新，而有了創新，通常價格會更高。因此，在我們度過這段緩和期的過程中，我們沒有看到這些貨幣大幅縮水。

I guess just in terms of -- do you think -- if you sort of look at the trend on project size, does that become -- will that cause ticket to become negative over the years? Is that how you're thinking about it?

我想就——你認為——如果你看一下項目規模的趨勢，這會變成——這會導致門票多年來變成負值嗎？你是這麼想的嗎？

I wouldn't say over the years, certainly, right now, we are seeing 2 of the biggest factors on each of ticket and transaction is, as we said. We have specific discretionary items, best examples are things like a grill, a patio set in appliances, those tend to be one-off discretionary items, and we are seeing pressure on those. We've been seeing pressure in those for some time. What was newer in our observations this quarter is that while projects are still strong and Pro project backlog is still elevated. The size of the projects are getting a bit smaller. And it could be that the projects being deferred or it could be that the project is being broken up into chunks. So whether -- rather than do an entire room or an entire basement, you start working the way at it in smaller chunks. And that clearly impacts items per basket in overall activity.

多年來，我不會說，當然，現在，正如我們所說，我們看到了影響機票和交易的兩個最大因素。我們有特定的可自由支配的物品，最好的例子是烤架、露台上的電器，這些往往是一次性的可自由支配的物品，我們看到了這些物品的壓力。一段時間以來，我們一直看到這些方面的壓力。本季度我們觀察到的最新情況是，雖然項目仍然強勁，但 Pro 項目積壓仍在增加。項目的規模越來越小。可能是項目被推遲，也可能是項目被分解成塊。所以無論是——而不是做整個房間或整個地下室，你開始以更小的塊來工作。這顯然會影響整體活動中每個籃子的物品。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Steven Zaccone。

I was hoping you could comment a bit on what you're seeing in the second quarter to date, just given the fact that weather has been so volatile across the U.S. And then just in the context of that, how should we think about second quarter maybe versus the back half of the year? What can kind of get you to the high end versus the low end of your full year guidance range?

我希望你能對你在第二季度看到的情況發表一些評論，只是考慮到美國各地的天氣變化如此之大然後在這種情況下，我們應該如何考慮第二季度也許與今年下半年相比？什麼可以讓您達到全年指導範圍的高端與低端？

Sure. Well, thank you. Thanks, Steven. So the first 2 weeks of May are in line with the guidance we've provided. We don't break out quarterly guidance, but the 2 -- the first 2 weeks are consistent with the guidance we provided. We're going to learn a lot over the next few weeks with respect to underlying demand as we still have some of our largest selling weeks ahead of us.

當然。嗯，謝謝。謝謝，史蒂文。因此，5 月的前 2 週與我們提供的指導一致。我們沒有發布季度指導，但 2 - 前 2 週與我們提供的指導一致。在接下來的幾周里，我們將在潛在需求方面學到很多東西，因為我們還有一些最大的銷售週在等著我們。

If you think about what our guide implies from a shape of the year. First, let's perhaps talk about the building blocks of our range. So how we got to the negative 2, to the negative 5, and then we'll talk about the shape of the year. The negative 2 was really built on flowing through the Q1 performance, adding the Q1 lumber impacting the guidance, adding a little further lumber pressure that we'll see in Q2. We think that there could be 120 basis points of comp pressure in Q2 based on current lumber price.

如果你想一想我們的指南從一年的形狀中暗示了什麼。首先，讓我們談談我們產品系列的組成部分。那麼我們如何達到負 2，負 5，然後我們將討論今年的情況。負 2 確實建立在 Q1 表現的基礎上，增加了影響指導的 Q1 木材，增加了我們將在 Q2 看到的進一步的木材壓力。我們認為，根據當前的木材價格，第二季度可能存在 120 個基點的競爭壓力。

And then that negative 2 scenario also reflects our share of PCE, which shifted at a more accelerated rate than expected in the first quarter sort of holding at that rate for the rest of the year. So those are the underlying assumptions in the negative 2.

然後，負 2 情景也反映了我們在 PCE 中的份額，它在第一季度以比預期更快的速度變化，在今年餘下時間保持該速度。所以這些是否定 2 中的基本假設。

The negative 5 case simply takes that PCE share shift assumption, our share of PCE and assumes that we revert back to 2019 levels of PCE share by the end of the fiscal year. So that would imply the negative 5% case. When we talk about the shape of the year for the negative 2 high end of the range, we would expect that the second half would be better than the first half, really due to lumber normalization in the second half on a year-over-year basis.

負 5 的情況只是採用 PCE 份額轉移假設，即我們的 PCE 份額，並假設我們在本財年末恢復到 2019 年的 PCE 份額水平。所以這意味著負 5% 的情況。當我們談論範圍負 2 高端的年度形狀時，我們預計下半年會好於上半年，這實際上是由於下半年木材同比正常化基礎。

The vast majority of lumber pressure year-over-year exists in that first half. So as that normalizes in the negative 2 case, second half improves versus the first half.

與去年同期相比，絕大多數木材壓力存在於上半年。因此，隨著負 2 情況的正常化，下半場比上半場有所改善。

In the lower end of our range, we would expect the first half would outperform the second half, again, due to that assumption of continued acceleration in our share of PCE.

在我們範圍的低端，我們預計上半年的表現將再次優於下半年，因為我們假設我們的 PCE 份額持續加速。

Great. And then I wanted to follow up on the comment about this being a transitional period for the consumer. In the context of the question is how do you think about this year as a potential trough and demand for home improvement versus it potentially being a multiyear trend and maybe 2024 is another step down. And I know you'll have a -- there's a lot of moving pieces, and you'll have an Analyst Day in a month. But if you could comment on that at all would be helpful.

偉大的。然後我想跟進關於這是消費者過渡期的評論。在這個問題的背景下，你如何看待今年是家庭裝修的潛在低谷和需求，而不是它可能是一個多年的趨勢，也許 2024 年是另一個下降。而且我知道你會有一個 - 有很多移動的部分，你將在一個月內有一個分析師日。但是，如果您能對此發表評論，那將很有幫助。

Yes. Why don't I just take it up a bit on the consumer and their health and then their engagement in home improvement. If you look at the consumer overall, they're still relatively strong as evidenced by continued increases in personal consumption. And then when you look at our customer, we have one of the best customer sets in any market sector.

是的。我為什麼不稍微談一談消費者和他們的健康，然後是他們對家居裝修的參與。如果你從整體上看消費者，他們仍然相對強勁，個人消費的持續增長證明了這一點。然後，當您查看我們的客戶時，我們擁有任何市場領域中最好的客戶群之一。

Our customer is stronger than the overall consumer and you think they tend to have good jobs, increasing wages and own their homes and collectively, those home values have increased by about $15 trillion since 2019. So as we said, we grew disproportionately these past few years, $47 billion in growth, 43% cumulative comp. As consumers shifted their spending, as these healthier consumers shifted their spending in home improvement. And undoubtedly, after that period of growth, you're going to see moderation which is exactly what we saw in Q1.

我們的客戶比整體消費者更強大，你認為他們往往有好工作，工資增加，擁有自己的房子，總的來說，自 2019 年以來，這些房屋價值增加了約 15 萬億美元。正如我們所說，過去幾年我們的增長不成比例年，增長 470 億美元，累計增長 43%。隨著消費者轉移他們的支出，隨著這些更健康的消費者轉移他們在家居裝修方面的支出。毫無疑問，在那段增長期之後，你會看到適度，這正是我們在第一季度看到的。

So when you think about what this reflects about the consumer in the future engagement, in home improvement, we think about a few things. We've seen an accelerated shift out of goods to service spending as the broader economy has gotten back to normal and that's, in particular, in home improvement, obviously, people aren't spending all their time at home as they did in the prior few years.

因此，當您考慮這反映了消費者在未來的參與、家庭裝修中的什麼時，我們會考慮一些事情。隨著整體經濟恢復正常，我們已經看到從商品到服務支出的加速轉變，尤其是在家居裝修方面，很明顯，人們不會像以前那樣把所有時間都花在家裡幾年。

And then there's an impact of pull forward or deferral of certain categories, like I spoke about earlier, appliances, patio grills that saw outsized growth in the early years of the pandemic.

然後會產生某些類別的提前或推遲的影響，就像我之前談到的那樣，電器、露台烤架在大流行的早期出現了巨大的增長。

And then a newer dynamic now that we're really seeing, again, just this past quarter is a more cautious consumer, given the broader macro concerns, including credit availability. And that aligns with what we're observing in our business and the comments I made about our Pros and consumers taking on smaller, less discretionary projects.

然後，鑑於更廣泛的宏觀擔憂，包括信貸可用性，我們再次真正看到的更新動態，就在上個季度，消費者更加謹慎。這與我們在我們的業務中觀察到的情況以及我對我們的專業人士和消費者承擔更小、更少自由裁量權的項目的評論一致。

And then lastly, with the buildup of inflation that we've seen, there's certainly some price sensitivity, particularly with respect to those bigger ticket discretionary items. So in general, our homeowner consumer is -- remains very healthy. It's a matter of digesting the outsized growth and shift those consumption spend out of services in the goods and particularly into home improvement.

最後，隨著我們所看到的通貨膨脹的加劇，肯定會有一些價格敏感性，特別是對於那些更大的可自由支配的項目。所以總的來說，我們的房主消費者 - 仍然非常健康。這是消化超額增長並將這些消費支出從商品服務中轉移出來的問題，特別是轉移到家居裝修中。

So we'll get through this period. Richard's talked about the PCE normalization. We don't know where that ends or how quickly it goes. There's an argument that PCE and home improvement stays elevated. All the reasons we've talked about before, the home values are so much higher. The age of the home is considerably older on average. People are spending more time at home. So all those dynamics could suggest normalization might be, in fact, a higher level of PCE spending in our sector.

所以我們會度過這個時期。理查德談到了 PCE 正常化。我們不知道它會在哪裡結束，也不知道它會走多快。有一種說法認為 PCE 和家庭裝修保持高位。我們之前談到的所有原因，房屋價值都高得多。房屋的平均年齡要大得多。人們花更多的時間在家裡。因此，所有這些動態可能表明正常化實際上可能是我們行業更高水平的 PCE 支出。

But regardless of all that, we'll get through this transition period and we remain incredibly bullish on the health of this sector. It's one of the absolute best sectors in all of retail. It's a large and fragmented market, and we have tremendous growth opportunities going forward.

但無論如何，我們將度過這個過渡期，我們仍然非常看好該行業的健康狀況。它是所有零售業中絕對最好的行業之一。這是一個龐大而分散的市場，我們在未來擁有巨大的增長機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Zach Fadem with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Zach Fadem 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

Can you help us bridge the gap from the 15.3% EBIT margin last year to the 14% to 14.3% today? And specifically, how should we think about the moving parts around gross margin versus SG&A? And then specifically for Q1, cost controls were a bit better than expected. Can you talk us through the impact of the legal settlement? And anything else you'd highlight there?

您能否幫助我們縮小從去年 15.3% 的息稅前利潤率到今天的 14% 至 14.3% 的差距？具體來說，我們應該如何考慮毛利率與 SG&A 的變動部分？然後特別是對於第一季度，成本控制比預期的要好一些。你能談談法律和解的影響嗎？還有什麼你想強調的嗎？

Yes, Zach. Thanks for the question. So let's first walk from 15.3%, which is our actual operating margin in 2022 to our original guide of 14.5% margin. At a flat comp, particularly in an inflationary environment, our business will see a degree of deleverage in expenses. And so there are really 3 factors.

是的，扎克。謝謝你的問題。因此，讓我們先從我們 2022 年的實際營業利潤率 15.3% 到我們最初的 14.5% 利潤率指南。在持平的情況下，尤其是在通貨膨脹的環境中，我們的業務將在一定程度上減少開支。所以真的有3個因素。

Natural deleverage in the business; a $1 billion investment in wage, which has proven to, as Ann said, provide real benefit from a customer experience point of view; and then productivity initiatives designed to offset some of that deleverage. And so when you net all those 3 against each other, that led to our guide of 14.5% at a flat comp.

業務自然去槓桿； 10 億美元的工資投資，正如 Ann 所說，從客戶體驗的角度來看，這已被證明提供了真正的好處；然後是旨在抵消部分去槓桿化的生產力舉措。因此，當你將所有這 3 個都相互抵消時，這導致我們的指南為 14.5% 的持平組合。

As we reflect on the revision to guidance, the range of operating margin that we have guided toward reflects the natural operating margin at these negative comp levels. In other words, there is -- there are levers that help blunt deleverage, but there is deleverage still in our model. The greatest mitigator is that we have an activity-based payroll model. And so as activity in our stores decreases, so does our lever -- sorry, our level of payroll. So you do have a natural buffer there. Began, the 14.3% to the 14.0% would be the natural operating margin at the negative 2 and the negative 5.

當我們反思對指導的修訂時，我們指導的營業利潤率範圍反映了這些負補償水平下的自然營業利潤率。換句話說，有一些槓桿可以幫助抑制去槓桿化，但我們的模型中仍然存在去槓桿化。最大的緩解因素是我們有一個基於活動的工資單模型。因此，隨著我們商店活動的減少，我們的槓桿——抱歉，我們的工資水平也會下降。所以你在那裡確實有一個天然的緩衝區。開始，14.3% 到 14.0% 將是負 2 和負 5 的自然營業利潤率。

When we think about the onetime legal settlement. So we did realize a large onetime benefit from a legal settlement, our guidance assumes this benefit will be offset during the remainder of the year. And so that's just a simplified assumption. We will protect that 14% operating margin, we'd agree with -- operate with a degree of financial flexibility. And as the year progresses, we'll be evaluating the levers available to us against the backdrop of the environment.

當我們考慮一次性合法解決時。因此，我們確實從法律和解中獲得了巨大的一次性收益，我們的指導假設這一收益將在今年剩餘時間內被抵消。所以這只是一個簡化的假設。我們將保護 14% 的營業利潤率，我們同意——以一定程度的財務靈活性運營。隨著時間的推移，我們將在環境背景下評估我們可用的槓桿。

Got it. Appreciate the color. I've got a big picture question. Could you talk about the macro and housing indicators that you believe are now most correlated to your business today? And then considering the golden handcuffs of sub-3% mortgages out there, do you think this takes longer now for housing turnover to materially recover.

知道了。欣賞顏色。我有一個大問題。您能談談您認為現在與您的業務最相關的宏觀和住房指標嗎？然後考慮低於 3% 的抵押貸款的金手銬，你認為現在需要更長的時間才能使房屋營業額實質性恢復。

Well, I'll take the second one first. We've already seen the impact to housing turnover. I think that we've probably fully seen the impact of higher mortgage rates on potential sellers. In this environment, if you have a low fixed rate mortgage, and let's just remind ourselves, 40% of owner-occupied homes are owned outright. And of the households that hold the mortgage, close to 90% of those hold fixed rate mortgages under 5%.

好吧，我會先拿第二個。我們已經看到了對房屋成交量的影響。我認為我們可能已經充分看到更高的抵押貸款利率對潛在賣家的影響。在這種環境下，如果你有低固定利率抵押貸款，讓我們提醒自己，40% 的自住房屋是完全擁有的。在持有抵押貸款的家庭中，近 90% 的家庭持有低於 5% 的固定利率抵押貸款。

So with mortgage rates where they are today, there's a reluctance to sell your home, and there is a greater incentive to stay in place and improve in place. And as Ted said, you're spending more time at home and that home is getting older. And you do not have an incentive to sell and take on a higher rate mortgage. So I think we've already seen that in housing turnover.

因此，在目前的抵押貸款利率下，人們不願意賣掉你的房子，並且有更大的動力留在原地並改善原地。正如泰德所說，你在家裡的時間越來越多，而那個家卻越來越舊了。而且您沒有動力出售並承擔更高利率的抵押貸款。所以我認為我們已經在房屋成交量中看到了這一點。

With respect to macro indicators, I think as Ted said, I think what we're seeing in the business now is reflective of the broader impact of tighter monetary policy and tighter credit conditions. It's interesting as we saw the quarter unfold. If you look at how we did during February, our business was actually trending quite positively. In fact, February's dollar run rate adjusted for normal seasonal curves would have implied a positive comp for the year.

關於宏觀指標，我認為正如泰德所說，我認為我們現在在企業中看到的情況反映了貨幣政策收緊和信貸條件收緊的更廣泛影響。當我們看到這個季度展開時，這很有趣。如果你看看我們在 2 月份的表現，我們的業務實際上趨勢非常積極。事實上，根據正常季節性曲線調整的 2 月份美元運行率本應暗示今年的收益為正。

You think about March, well, first of all, March was impacted by extreme weather most notably in California. And that was also the point where we saw accelerating share shift. There were some external factors there that maybe don't have direct influence, but as you know, in March, we saw the collapse of SVB. And you think about the tighter credit conditions that were a result of the external environment, we think all of those just build to a broader -- a broader caution among consumers.

你想想三月，好吧，首先，三月受到極端天氣的影響，尤其是在加利福尼亞。這也是我們看到加速份額轉移的地方。那裡有一些可能沒有直接影響的外部因素，但正如你所知，在 3 月份，我們看到了 SVB 的崩潰。你想想外部環境導致的更嚴格的信貸條件，我們認為所有這些都只是在消費者中建立更廣泛的——更廣泛的謹慎。

As Ted said, our homeowner customer is extremely healthy, very healthy balance sheet, healthy income. This is a broader consumer economy dynamic we think we're seeing.

正如泰德所說，我們的房主客戶非常健康，資產負債表非常健康，收入也很健康。這是我們認為我們正在看到的更廣泛的消費經濟動態。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Michael Lasser。

As you look across your entire assortment and trying and assess current unit demand versus what would be a normalized rate. How many product categories are still well above what would be suggested by a normalized rate, perhaps if you look at appliances, grills and patio furniture and where units are today versus 2019 and extend that math to the rest of the business what would that suggest about a downside comp scenario even from here?

當您查看整個分類並嘗試和評估當前單位需求與標準化率的對比時。有多少產品類別仍遠高於正常化率所建議的水平，也許如果您查看電器、烤架和庭院家具以及今天的單位與 2019 年相比的位置，並將該數學擴展到其他業務，這意味著什麼甚至從這裡開始的不利補償方案？

Michael, great question. I wouldn't say we've gone into that level of detail by category. Certainly, a number of those categories were elevated. The ones you called out, patio grills, appliances were elevated on retails with innovation, as well as units with outsized demand.

邁克爾，好問題。我不會說我們已經按類別深入到那種程度的細節。當然，其中一些類別有所提升。你提到的那些，露台烤架，家電在零售方面的創新以及需求過大的單位都得到了提升。

I think when you think of normal replacement cycles and pull forward on some of that product, that's just going to take a little bit of time to normalize. Other categories that we haven't talked so much about that are -- that are really booming frankly, are categories like building materials where we're seeing unit volume still running quite strong. We see units in lumber picking up meaningfully as prices come down, you get attachment with building materials.

我認為，當您考慮正常的更換週期並推進某些產品時，這將需要一點時間才能正常化。其他我們沒有談論太多的類別是 - 坦率地說，它們確實在蓬勃發展，例如建築材料等類別，我們看到單位數量仍然非常強勁。隨著價格下降，我們看到木材的單位有意義地回升，您對建築材料產生了依戀。

And then hardware, which attaches to both building materials in lumber, we're seeing our strongest hardware unit productivity in attach rate to those project starter categories, I think, Billy, it's the highest attach rate we've ever recorded.

然後硬件，它附加到木材中的兩種建築材料，我們看到我們最強的硬件單位生產率在這些項目啟動類別的附加率上，我認為，比利，這是我們有史以來最高的附加率。

Yes, that's right. If you think about our building materials performance, we called that out as outperform, along with lumber, still seeing great unit productivity across those businesses and seeing the attach smaller, certainly smaller projects taking place. And then Ted did mention some of the -- we did see some pull forward in some of those businesses that we talked about initially as well.

恩，那就對了。如果你考慮我們的建築材料性能，我們將其與木材一起稱為跑贏大盤，仍然看到這些業務的單位生產率很高，並且看到附加更小，當然更小的項目正在發生。然後 Ted 確實提到了一些——我們確實看到了我們最初談到的一些業務的一些進展。

My follow-up question is, if we consider 2023 to be the transition year and comps for the Home Depot do return to growth in 2024 would you start seeing leverage on your expenses on the first dollar of growth? Or will there be some catch-up like Richard, you mentioned legal expense, you expect to give back some of that over the course of this year? Presumably, there'll be an incentive comp benefit as you lowered your guidance. So will you see some of those items come back next year such that if we have in our models a positive comp, we wouldn't necessarily expect you to leverage your expenses on the first dollar of growth next year?

我的後續問題是，如果我們將 2023 年視為過渡年，並且 Home Depot 的補償確實在 2024 年恢復增長，您會開始看到第一美元增長對您的支出產生影響嗎？還是會有像理查德那樣的追趕，你提到了法律費用，你希望在今年的過程中回饋其中的一部分？據推測，當你降低你的指導時，會有一個激勵補償的好處。那麼你會看到其中一些項目明年回歸嗎？如果我們的模型中有一個積極的補償，我們不一定希望你在明年的第一美元增長中利用你的支出？

Well, we'll get into a bit more detail on outlook in 2024 when we get together in June for the investor conference. We're not modeling 2024 at that level of specificity as we're only a few months into 2023. But broadly, Michael, our model is meant to leverage and will leverage with volume.

好吧，當我們在 6 月聚在一起參加投資者會議時，我們將更詳細地討論 2024 年的前景。我們並沒有在那種特定水平上對 2024 年進行建模，因為我們距離 2023 年只有幾個月的時間。但從廣義上講，邁克爾，我們的模型旨在利用並將利用數量。

And we have some costs to take out of the business. For sure, if you think on the product side, with transportation in particular, you'll see significant costs come out as we work through our current inventory levels with the higher transportation rates experienced during COVID.

我們有一些成本可以從業務中扣除。可以肯定的是，如果你從產品方面考慮，尤其是運輸，你會看到在我們處理當前的庫存水平以及 COVID 期間經歷的更高運輸率時，會產生大量成本。

And then on the operating model, the store and labor, that will always leverage with growth. And obviously, we manage cost and price independently, Michael, and transportation costs are a market dynamic. And so we'll make sure that we're positioned as the customer's advocate for value with respect to price. But as Ted said, we'll get more into this in 2023 -- sorry, in June, June 13.

然後是運營模式、商店和勞動力，它們將始終隨著增長而發揮作用。顯然，我們獨立管理成本和價格，邁克爾，運輸成本是市場動態。因此，我們將確保我們被定位為客戶在價格方面的價值倡導者。但正如 Ted 所說，我們將在 2023 年對此進行更多討論——抱歉，6 月 6 日，6 月 13 日。

Richard, can I just clarify what that comment is intended to stay? Because one of the debates is costs have come down, whether transportation costs certain raw materials. So there's a question of whether that means there's going to be like-for-like product deflation in noncommodity-related areas over the course of this year. And it sounds like Home Depot is going to continue to be an advocate for growth, but how would you clarify that? Or advocate for value, sorry.

理查德，我能否澄清一下該評論的目的是什麼？因為爭論之一是成本已經下降，運輸是否需要某些原材料的成本。因此，有一個問題是，這是否意味著今年非商品相關領域會出現同類產品通貨緊縮。聽起來 Home Depot 將繼續成為增長的倡導者，但您如何澄清這一點？或者提倡價值，抱歉。

Right. No, again, we manage cost and price independently. Ted -- as Ted said, we don't expect broad-based deflation in this market.

正確的。不，我們再次獨立管理成本和價格。泰德——正如泰德所說，我們預計這個市場不會出現廣泛的通貨緊縮。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Nagel 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

My first question, I know we've discussed a bit already, but the weather. I was just wondering if you can go in a little more detail what you saw kind of a spread between -- in comps between markets where weather was an issue and markets where weather may have been more than normal?

我的第一個問題，我知道我們已經討論了一些，但是天氣。我只是想知道你是否可以更詳細地說明你所看到的那種差異——在天氣成為問題的市場和天氣可能比正常情況更糟的市場之間的比較中？

And then as -- look, I mean, looking at our data, the spring has come, has arrived and or in a lot of markets. So what are you seeing then as far as any type of pickup in seasonal categories as the spring like conditions are starting to take hold?

然後——看，我的意思是，看看我們的數據，春天已經到來，或者在很多市場中已經到來。那麼，隨著春季條件開始出現，就季節性類別中的任何類型的提貨而言，你看到了什麼？

Yes, Brian, thank you. So weather, as we said, was most pronounced in the West in a very unique weather pattern. This wasn't a bad weekend. This was record rain and even things like snow in Southern California. So where weather was sustained and bad when we look at the West versus our Northern and Southern divisions, the impact was a multiple of what we saw in the other parts of the country. And generally, we've talked in the past about the bathtub effect, and we wouldn't have updated guidance base on stronger relatively weaker sales in Q1 based on weather because we would look to get that back. So when you think of a shorter spring season in the north where people are going to get that activity done in a limited number of weeks. If you don't get it done in the first quarter, people tend to make it up in the second quarter.

是的，布賴恩，謝謝你。因此，正如我們所說，天氣在西方以一種非常獨特的天氣模式最為明顯。這不是一個糟糕的周末。這是南加州創紀錄的降雨，甚至是降雪。因此，當我們對比西部和北部和南部地區時，天氣持續和惡劣的地方，其影響是我們在該國其他地區看到的數倍。總的來說，我們過去曾討論過浴缸效應，我們不會根據天氣情況更新基於第一季度相對較弱銷售的指導，因為我們希望恢復這種情況。所以當你想到北方較短的春季時，人們將在有限的幾週內完成這項活動。如果你在第一季度沒有完成，人們往往會在第二季度補上。

The dynamic in the West this went into our guidance of the minus 2 to minus 5, is the West, it's more level weather patterns. We have very large stores, very high pro concentration. And when you get bad weather, you're not really looking at a bathtub effect to make it up in a short season. You just sort of missed that selling week. So the difference geographically was pronounced in the West, and we just look at that as sort of lost selling weeks.

西方的動態這進入了我們對負 2 到負 5 的指導，是西方，它是更水平的天氣模式。我們有非常大的商店，專業集中度非常高。當你遇到壞天氣時，你並不是真的在看浴缸效應來在短季節內彌補它。您只是錯過了那個銷售週。因此，地理上的差異在西方很明顯，我們只是將其視為銷售損失週。

In the north, the behavior is more typical to the bathtub. I mean we didn't have many good weekends but when we did sales were incredibly strong. So we're certainly hoping for better weather in Q2.

在北方，浴缸的行為更為典型。我的意思是我們沒有度過很多愉快的周末，但是當我們度過週末時，銷售量非常強勁。所以我們當然希望第二季度天氣更好。

Okay. That's helpful. And then very helpful. And my second question, again, recognize there's lots of moving parts here. And you're dealing with varied comparisons through out the year. But as you look at -- as you think about or as you -- the updated guidance for '23 you gave us today, does that basically assume kind of a continuation of what we've seen so far in '23? Or are you assuming some type of either improvement, further deterioration, et cetera, through the year?

好的。這很有幫助。然後非常有幫助。我的第二個問題再次認識到這裡有很多活動部件。並且您全年都在處理各種比較。但是，當你看到——正如你所想的那樣——你今天給我們的 23 年更新指南，這是否基本上假設了我們在 23 年迄今為止所看到的內容的延續？還是您假設全年會出現某種類型的改善、進一步惡化等情況？

That's right, Brian. That's why we gave the range. I mean you would say that particularly, the bottom end of the range would assume greater deceleration than we've observed to date. And it's consistent with the hypothetical case we laid out at the beginning of the year which was to say, look, if our share of PCE reverts to 2019 levels by the end of the year, that is what you would see. And again, that would be an accelerated rate of reversion versus what we've seen. So the negative 2, again, sort of has -- it takes into account the fact that we saw sharper reversion than expected in Q1 and that we would hold that share through the end of the year. It's not a perfect science, and that's why we gave you a range.

沒錯，布賴恩。這就是我們給出範圍的原因。我的意思是你會特別說，範圍的底端會假設減速比我們迄今為止觀察到的更大。這與我們在年初提出的假設案例是一致的，也就是說，看，如果我們的 PCE 份額到今年年底恢復到 2019 年的水平，這就是你會看到的。再一次，與我們所看到的相比，這將是一個加速的回歸速度。因此，負 2 再次有點——它考慮到這樣一個事實，即我們在第一季度看到比預期更劇烈的逆轉，並且我們將在今年年底之前持有該份額。這不是一門完美的科學，這就是我們為您提供範圍的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 與 Truist 的對話。

So Richard, you talked about protecting a 14% operating margin even with the wage investments that you guys have made this year at this point. What other -- I mean, how much flexibility do you think you have on the SG&A line? Because I know labor is your biggest kind of plus bucket but you're actually investing more in labor, not less. So like how should we think about how you guys are managing that component?

所以理查德，你談到保護 14% 的營業利潤率，即使你們今年在這一點上進行的工資投資也是如此。還有什麼——我的意思是，你認為你在 SG&A 線上有多少靈活性？因為我知道勞動力是你最大的加分桶，但你實際上在勞動力上投入了更多，而不是更少。那麼我們應該如何考慮你們如何管理該組件？

Well, the investment in wage, again, which has really proven to have driven a lot of benefit on the customer experience side, that's embedded in our guidance. We've made the investment and that will be roughly a $1 billion addition to our cost structure, but it's embedded in our margin structure.

好吧，工資投資再次被證明在客戶體驗方面帶來了很多好處，這已包含在我們的指導中。我們已經進行了投資，這將在我們的成本結構中增加大約 10 億美元，但它已嵌入我們的利潤結構中。

Again, as the year progresses, we'll be evaluating levers available to us against the backdrop of the environment. We invest to win over the long term. We're comfortable with our level of investment as it stands today. We'll continue to assess our investments against the backdrop of the environment, and we have some flexibility there, too.

同樣，隨著時間的推移，我們將在環境背景下評估我們可用的槓桿。我們投資是為了贏得長期利益。我們對目前的投資水平感到滿意。我們將繼續根據環境背景評估我們的投資，我們也有一定的靈活性。

And just a quick follow-up. With higher interest rates in the marketplace, does that change how you guys are thinking about capital allocation, not necessarily from a strategic basis, but how aggressive you want to be in terms of issuing debt to buy back stock?

并快速跟進。隨著市場利率上升，這是否會改變你們對資本配置的思考方式，不一定是從戰略基礎上，而是你們希望在發行債券回購股票方面採取多積極的態度？

We feel good about where we stand from a debt-to-EBITDA perspective. We had a maturity $1 billion maturity in April and we repaid that, didn't refinance it. We have no need necessarily to go to the debt capital markets in the short term, and we'll watch market conditions as they unfold.

從債務與 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們對自己的立場感到滿意。我們在 4 月份到期了 10 億美元，我們還清了，沒有再融資。我們沒有必要在短期內進入債務資本市場，我們會隨著市場的發展而觀察市場狀況。

But we feel good about where we are from a leverage perspective.

但從槓桿的角度來看，我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brad Thomas 與 KeyBanc 的對話。

I was hoping we could talk a little bit more about the trends that you're seeing in the Pro business. I think this is the first time in a few quarters that it had underperformed DIY. What are you seeing out of the Pro? Has it improved? Has the weather has gotten better? And how are you thinking about it going forward?

我希望我們能多談談您在專業業務中看到的趨勢。我認為這是幾個季度以來它第一次表現不及 DIY。您從 Pro 中看到了什麼？它有改善嗎？天氣變好了嗎？您如何看待它的發展？

Yes. I'll let Hector talk a bit about the Pro and what we like that we're seeing. But from the broadest perspective, don't forget the pro was disproportionately impacted by lumber and then, again, a very strong Pro business out west. But we like what we're seeing with our customers as they engage with our capabilities.

是的。我會讓 Hector 談談 Pro 以及我們所看到的我們喜歡的東西。但從最廣泛的角度來看，不要忘記專業人士受到木材的不成比例的影響，然後再次受到西部非常強大的專業人士業務的影響。但我們喜歡我們在客戶參與我們的能力時看到的情況。

Yes. Brad, this is Hector. On a 2-year basis, our performance was positive and as Ted just mentioned and Billy, we saw that disproportionate impact from lumber and weather. What we're most excited about is what we're seeing with our Pros. We're engaging with our new supply chain assets and expanded pro capabilities that we have talked about in the past. We're gaining share wallet with them and as they're growing their spend with us, they have a willingness to consolidate their purchases with Home Depot. They love our brand, they love our assortment and our value proposition, and we see in that across many markets. I really look forward to speaking with you in more detail in June about how the Pro business is doing and around the capabilities that we're building.

是的。布拉德，這是赫克托。在 2 年的基礎上，我們的表現是積極的，正如 Ted 和 Billy 剛才提到的，我們看到了木材和天氣的不成比例的影響。我們最興奮的是我們的專業人士所看到的。我們正在使用我們過去討論過的新供應鏈資產和擴展的專業能力。我們正在與他們分享錢包，隨著他們在我們這裡的支出不斷增加，他們願意與 Home Depot 合併購買。他們喜歡我們的品牌，他們喜歡我們的產品組合和我們的價值主張，我們在許多市場都看到了這一點。我真的很期待在 6 月與您更詳細地討論專業業務的運作方式以及我們正在構建的功能。

Great. And as a quick follow-up, obviously, some moving pieces here with weather and deflation. I believe your prior outlook for the home improvement market was a decline of low single digits. What are you assuming in your new outlook?

偉大的。作為快速跟進，顯然，這裡有一些與天氣和通貨緊縮相關的動人事件。我相信您之前對家居裝修市場的展望是低個位數下降。你對你的新觀點有什麼假設？

So we began the year with a flat outlook for PCE. There are economists who have lifted that outlook slightly for PCE. But as we observe PCE share that our market holds and the shifts that we've seen, we expect our market to be down mid- to high single digits. And so implicit in our guide is the expectation that we'll continue to take share.

因此，我們在年初對 PCE 持平展望。有些經濟學家略微提高了 PCE 的前景。但當我們觀察我們市場持有的 PCE 份額和我們所看到的變化時，我們預計我們的市場將下降到中高個位數。因此，在我們的指南中隱含著對我們將繼續分享的期望。

Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自 Simeon Gutman 與摩根士丹利的對話。

I want to ask about home prices. There's been a case that's made that demands decoupled a bit from turnover and that prices could matter more. I want to ask specifically about how that could inform the cadence of the year because if you are restrict adherent to prices, the lag effect could suggest that the back half core gets a little bit worse. I'm just curious how you think about that?

我想問一下房價。有一個案例表明需求與營業額有點脫鉤，價格可能更重要。我想具體問一下這如何影響今年的節奏，因為如果你限制價格，滯後效應可能表明後半核心會變得更糟。我只是好奇你怎麼想的？

Well, if all the housing metrics, Simeon, we think home value has the tightest correlation to home improvement spend. Certainly, turnover and household formation also our influence to spend.

好吧，如果所有的住房指標，Simeon，我們認為房屋價值與家居裝修支出的相關性最緊密。當然，營業額和家庭組成也會影響我們的消費。

And there's generally a lag effect, as you say, to home price appreciation or depreciation. I think the difference here is how sensitive are people going to be that I was up 45% in home value from the end of 2019. And yes, now month-over-month, the values are off slightly, but I'm still up 40% or 38% from where I was at the end of 2019.

正如您所說，房價升值或貶值通常存在滯後效應。我認為這裡的區別在於人們對我的房屋價值從 2019 年底上漲 45% 有多敏感。是的，現在每個月，價值略有下降，但我仍然在上漲比我 2019 年底的水平高 40% 或 38%。

That psychology is tough to weed out with the general consumer apprehension given general inflation in macro and rising interest rates and all the talk, are we going to have a recession? Are we not going to have a recession. So I wouldn't think that, that would have that big of an impact. We're not thinking that's a big impact in 2H.

鑑於宏觀普遍通貨膨脹和利率上升以及所有的談話，這種心理很難與一般消費者的擔憂一起消除，我們會陷入衰退嗎？我們不會有經濟衰退嗎？所以我不認為那會產生那麼大的影響。我們認為這不會對 2H 產生重大影響。

Okay. That's fair. One more question around the updated guide for Richard. The midpoint of this negative 2 to negative 5, just to clarify, that assumes that the core worsens from Q1 as well as the impact of lumber worsens from Q1?

好的。這還算公平。關於理查德更新指南的另一個問題。這個負 2 到負 5 的中點，只是為了澄清，假設核心從 Q1 惡化以及木材的影響從 Q1 惡化？

You can think of the impact of lumber being kind of an assumption that is equal across all cases. So about 120 basis points of pressure to Q2 and then very, very slight, really nonmeaningful pressure in the second half. And again, we've given a range, Simeon, to just provide sort of a balanced view here. It's tough to extrapolate this early in the year. And so we feel like the range approach is the most helpful guidance that we can give.

您可以將木材的影響視為一種在所有情況下都相同的假設。因此，第二季度面臨大約 120 個基點的壓力，然後是下半年非常、非常輕微、非常無意義的壓力。再一次，我們已經給出了一個範圍，Simeon，只是在這裡提供一種平衡的觀點。很難在今年年初對此進行推斷。因此，我們覺得範圍方法是我們可以提供的最有用的指導。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Sigman with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seth Sigman 與 Barclays 的對話。

I wanted to follow up on that assumption that home improvement wallet share will normalize back to 2019 levels. And obviously, that implies things get worse from here. But I guess there's also been some prior cycles where wallet share overshoots on the downside and goes lower than where it was before, and we talked a lot about pull forward already today. But how do you think about that scenario and why that scenario would be wrong this time?

我想跟進這一假設，即家居裝修錢包份額將正常化回到 2019 年的水平。顯然，這意味著事情會從這裡變得更糟。但我想也有一些之前的周期，錢包份額在下行時過衝並低於以前的水平，我們今天已經談了很多關於拉動的話題。但是您如何看待這種情況以及為什麼這次這種情況會出錯？

Well, as we've said, we've given the guide for our best view of 2023 in the downside of a minus 5 would be that you've reverted by the end of the year to 2019 levels. So mathematically, you could say, well, there'd be some hangover of that into 2024. And then your question does it overshoot?

好吧，正如我們所說，我們已經給出了我們對 2023 年的最佳看法的指南，負 5 的缺點是到年底你已經恢復到 2019 年的水平。所以從數學上講，你可以說，好吧，到 2024 年會有一些後遺症。然後你的問題是它過頭了嗎？

Frankly, we don't know. As I said earlier, there's as strong a case, if not stronger, that where you settle is a higher share. If based nothing more than your asset class is so much higher. I mean we're not talking billions of dollars. We're literally talking trillions of dollars that this asset class has more value. So if you're thinking about percent of investment in any asset class, you've got a much bigger base. We talk about the average age of the home is now over 40 years old, and we have big chunks of homes that are reaching that 20-year and 40-year sort of witching hour of age. We all know we're spending more time at home. So wear and tear is higher. So we've talked about all these dynamics in the past and I'd say if you had to call it, you would say, the spend would ultimately settle out potentially higher.

坦率地說，我們不知道。正如我之前所說，有一個強有力的理由，如果不是更強的話，你定居的地方會有更高的份額。如果僅基於您的資產類別就高得多。我的意思是我們不是在談論數十億美元。我們實際上是在談論數万億美元，該資產類別具有更多價值。因此，如果您考慮任何資產類別的投資百分比，您的基數就大得多。我們談論家庭的平均年齡現在已經超過 40 歲，而且我們有大量的家庭正在達到 20 年和 40 年的年齡的巫術時間。我們都知道我們在家裡的時間越來越多。所以磨損比較大。所以我們過去討論過所有這些動態，我會說如果你不得不稱之為，你會說，支出最終可能會更高。

Okay. Fair enough. Just one follow-up on the EBIT margin guidance for this year. I think what you laid out here at the low end, so 14% margin on negative mid-single-digit comps very consistent with the scenarios you talked about last quarter, but it does include that Q1 SG&A benefit. Can you just help us better understand, does that imply the underlying is actually lower? I think you may have said there's an offset to that. Maybe you can just clarify that point.

好的。很公平。只是今年 EBIT 利潤率指導的一項後續行動。我認為你在這裡列出的低端，所以負中個位數 comps 的 14% 利潤率與你上個季度談到的情景非常一致，但它確實包括第一季度的 SG&A 收益。您能否幫助我們更好地理解，這是否意味著基礎資產實際上較低？我想你可能已經說過這有一個抵消。也許你可以澄清這一點。

Thanks for the question. To clarify, it's not assuming that the underlying would be lower. Our guide actually assumes that, that gain would be offset through the remainder of the year.

謝謝你的問題。需要澄清的是，這並不是假設基礎資產會更低。我們的指南實際上假設，該收益將在今年剩餘時間內被抵消。

Christine, we have time for one more question.

克里斯汀，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our final question will come from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.

我們的最後一個問題將來自古根海姆的史蒂文福布斯。

Just wanted to follow up on lumber trends. You made a comment about price deflation. Curious if you could talk about what specifically happened with unit volume during the quarter. And then what the guidance assumes in the back half as the price compares ease in terms of unit expectations, right, in the second half?

只是想跟進木材趨勢。你對價格通縮發表了評論。想知道您能否談談本季度單位銷量的具體情況。然後，當價格在單位預期方面比較輕鬆時，指導在下半年假設了什麼，對吧，在下半年？

Yes. Thanks, Steven. This is Billy. As we talked about, Richard mentioned in his previous comments, we do anticipate the greatest pressure from lumber in the first half. For the total year, we think lumber deflation impact to the comp is about 100 basis points. Now with that, we're seeing strong unit movement across plywood, dimensional lumber, PT decking. It's 220 basis points, as we mentioned in Q1, another 120 basis points roughly in Q2 which is in the guide and then we don't expect a material impact from lumber for the back half of the year, but still seeing really strong unit performance in the categories I called out.

是的。謝謝，史蒂文。這是比利。正如我們所說，理查德在他之前的評論中提到，我們確實預計上半年木材的壓力最大。對於全年，我們認為木材通縮對公司的影響約為 100 個基點。現在，我們看到膠合板、規格材、PT 甲板的強勁單位變動。正如我們在第一季度提到的那樣，它是 220 個基點，在指南中的第二季度大約還有 120 個基點，然後我們預計今年下半年木材不會產生實質性影響，但仍然會看到非常強勁的單位表現在我提到的類別中。

And so maybe just -- so you do expect unit volume to improve in the back half? Or what is sort of the trajectory of unit dynamics, right, with lumber specifically implied in the guide?

所以也許只是 - 所以你確實希望後半部分的單位體積有所改善？或者單位動力學的軌跡是什麼，對吧，指南中特別暗示了木材？

Well, as the pricing normalizes year-over-year, you'll see the units reflect in that as we get towards a more rational state that we had in the back half of last year.

好吧，隨著定價逐年正常化，你會看到這些單位反映了這一點，因為我們正朝著去年下半年的更理性狀態邁進。

And then just a quick follow-up. Any sort of preview of what we should expect at the upcoming Analyst Day? I think, you made a comment before potentially about speaking to 2024, but I wasn't sure if you can maybe clarify any sort of previewed thoughts on what we should expect to hear at the Analyst Day?

然後只是快速跟進。在即將到來的分析師日我們應該期待什麼？我想，你在可能與 2024 年交談之前發表了評論，但我不確定你是否可以澄清任何關於我們在分析師日應該期待聽到的內容的預覽想法？

Thanks for that question, Steve. I think what you'll hear us talk about is the updated TAM that we will lay out for you, our growth opportunities to go after that TAM, and a little bit more about why we're so excited about the sector and the business.

謝謝你提出這個問題，史蒂夫。我想你會聽到我們談論的是我們將為你展示的更新後的 TAM，我們追求 TAM 的增長機會，以及更多關於我們為什麼對這個行業和業務如此興奮的原因。

Thank you. Ms. Janci, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

謝謝。 Janci 女士，我現在想把發言權交還給您，請您發表結束評論。

Thanks, Christine, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you at our Investor Conference on June 13.

謝謝，克里斯汀，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在 6 月 13 日的投資者大會上與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。