家得寶 (HD) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

由於一次性收費,Home Depot 第四季度的運營費用有所上升,但全年總體有所下降。公司第四季度的有效稅率為 22.6%,全年為 23.9%。第四季度稀釋後每股收益為3.30美元,同比增長2.8%,全年為16.69美元,同比增長7.5%。年內,公司新開 6 家門店,虧損 1 家門店。商品庫存比上一年增加 28 億美元,庫存周轉率從 5.2 倍下降到 4.2 倍。

家得寶第四季度總銷售額增長 0.3%,全年增長 4.1%。本季度 Comp 銷售額為負 0.3%,但全年為正 3.1%。四季度,公司毛利率約為33.3%,較上年提升7個基點。全年,公司毛利率約為33.5%,較上年下降10個基點。 2022財年第四季度,家得寶平均票價上漲5.8%,交易筆數下降6%,對銷售額造成約70個基點的負面影響。該公司將平均票價的增長歸因於其產品類別的通貨膨脹以及對新產品和創新產品的需求,其中核心商品通貨膨脹約佔增長的 15 個基點。木材價格與上一年相比大幅下跌是交易減少的主要原因。

儘管對銷售產生負面影響,Home Depot 公佈了強勁的第四季度收益,14 個銷售部門中有 7 個部門的收益為正。與去年第四季度相比,大票交易增長了 3.8%。專業銷售增長超過 DIY,與去年第四季度相比,公司在線總銷售額增長超過 4%。家得寶對其數字平台的持續投資引起了客戶的共鳴,大約 45% 的在線訂單是通過商店完成的。

該公司正在採取措施改善員工體驗,相信這將帶來更好的客戶體驗。一個例子是新高清電話的推出,它提供對工具和應用程序的實時訪問,幫助員工更有效地確定任務的優先級。該電話還使員工能夠提供更好的客戶體驗,並使他們的工作更輕鬆。公司正在通過許多其他方式進行投資,以改善員工體驗。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Greetings, and welcome to The Home Depot Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

    您好,歡迎來到家得寶 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)提醒一下,正在錄製此會議。

  • It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Isabel Janci. Please go ahead.

    現在我很高興向您介紹主持人 Isabel Janci。請繼續。

  • Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

    Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

  • Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Home Depot's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Call. Joining us on our call today are Ted Decker, Chair, President and CEO; Jeff Kinnaird, Executive Vice President of Merchandising; Ann-Marie Campbell, Executive Vice President of U.S. Stores and International Operations, and Richard McPhail, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, the call will be open for questions. (Operator Instructions) If we are unable to get to your question during the call, please call our Investor Relations department at (770) 384-2387.

    謝謝你,克里斯汀,大家早上好。歡迎來到 Home Depot 的第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。主席、總裁兼首席執行官泰德·德克爾 (Ted Decker) 今天加入我們的電話會議;營銷執行副總裁 Jeff Kinnaird;美國商店和國際運營執行副總裁 Ann-Marie Campbell 和執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Richard McPhail。在我們準備好的發言之後,電話會議將公開提問。 (操作員說明)如果我們在通話期間無法回答您的問題,請致電 (770) 384-2387 聯繫我們的投資者關係部門。

  • Before I turn the call over to Ted, let me remind you that today's press release and the presentations made by our executives include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Today's presentations will also include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliation of these measures is provided on our website.

    在我將電話轉給 Ted 之前,讓我提醒您,今天的新聞稿和我們的高管所做的介紹包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》中定義的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響可能導致實際結果與我們的預期和預測存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於新聞稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。今天的演講還將包括某些非 GAAP 措施。我們的網站上提供了這些措施的協調。

  • Now let me turn the call over to Ted.

    現在讓我把電話轉給泰德。

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Thanks, Isabel, and good morning, everyone. Fiscal 2022 was another record year for our business as we achieved $157.4 billion in sales. We added over $6 billion in sales and increased diluted earnings per share 7.5% versus last year to $16.69. Over a 3-year period, we have grown sales by over $47 billion and delivered diluted earnings per share growth of over 60% while investing in the long-term health of our business. Throughout fiscal 2022, we continue to face reduced friction for our customers to improve the shopping experience. As Anne will discuss, we invested in an improved customer associate experience in our stores by implementing a new store leadership structure. We also drove productivity within the 4 walls of our store through our Get Stores Right, or GSR, space optimization initiative, and we've implemented new tools and technology in stores to reduce complexity for associates and improve customer service.

    謝謝,伊莎貝爾,大家早上好。 2022 財年是我們業務又創紀錄的一年,我們實現了 1574 億美元的銷售額。我們的銷售額增加了超過 60 億美元,攤薄後每股收益比去年增加了 7.5%,達到 16.69 美元。在 3 年期間,我們的銷售額增長超過 470 億美元,攤薄後每股收益增長超過 60%,同時投資於我們業務的長期健康發展。在整個 2022 財年,我們將繼續減少客戶的摩擦,以改善購物體驗。正如 Anne 將要討論的那樣,我們通過實施新的門店領導結構投資於改善門店的客戶體驗。我們還通過我們的 Get Stores Right (GSR) 空間優化計劃提高了我們商店 4 面牆內的生產力,並且我們在商店中實施了新的工具和技術,以降低員工的複雜性並改善客戶服務。

  • We're also pleased with the traction we are seeing in our interconnected business. We've seen increased app engagement, downloads conversion as we've rolled out several enhancements, including an improved online experience for our Pro loyalty program, seamless connectivity for our military program and the launch of our new store mode feature, which makes store navigation and product interaction easier.

    我們也對我們在相互關聯的業務中看到的牽引力感到高興。隨著我們推出多項增強功能,包括改進我們的 Pro 忠誠度計劃的在線體驗、我們軍事計劃的無縫連接以及推出新的商店模式功能,我們已經看到應用程序參與度和下載轉化率有所提高,該功能使商店導航成為可能和產品交互更容易。

  • We are very pleased with the continued progress on our supply chain build-out as we reached an important milestone earlier this year. All our appliance delivery volume is now managed through our market delivery operations, significantly improving the customer experience.

    我們對供應鏈建設的持續進展感到非常高興,因為我們在今年早些時候達到了一個重要的里程碑。我們所有的家電交付量現在都通過我們的市場交付業務進行管理,顯著改善了客戶體驗。

  • In the near term, we continue to navigate a unique environment. Throughout most of fiscal 2022, we observed a resilient customer who is less price sensitive than we would have expected in the face of persistent inflation. In the third quarter, we noted some deceleration in certain products and categories, which was more pronounced in the fourth quarter. This, along with the negative impact from lumber deflation, led to fourth quarter comps that were slightly softer than anticipated.

    在短期內,我們將繼續在一個獨特的環境中航行。在 2022 財年的大部分時間裡,我們觀察到一個有彈性的客戶,他們在面對持續的通貨膨脹時對價格的敏感度低於我們的預期。在第三季度,我們注意到某些產品和類別出現了一些減速,這在第四季度更為明顯。這一點,連同木材通貨緊縮的負面影響,導致第四季度的業績略低於預期。

  • We are closely monitoring our elasticities and trends across the business and believe we have the tools, team and experience to manage in any environment. This team has been effectively navigating the unprecedented growth in the last 3 years, and I have full confidence in their ability to execute as we go forward.

    我們正在密切關注整個企業的彈性和趨勢,相信我們擁有在任何環境中進行管理的工具、團隊和經驗。這個團隊在過去 3 年中一直有效地引領著前所未有的增長,我對他們在我們前進的過程中的執行能力充滿信心。

  • The investments in our associates, stores, digital platforms, supply chain, technology, and other strategic initiatives have strengthened our business and enabled us to grow share and deliver exceptional shareholder value over the long term. The most important investment we can make is in our people, which is why we are announcing that we are increasing annualized compensation by approximately $1 billion for our frontline hourly associates. We believe this investment will position us favorably in the market, allowing us not only to attract the most qualified talent but also retain the exceptional associate base that is already in place.

    對我們的員工、商店、數字平台、供應鏈、技術和其他戰略計劃的投資加強了我們的業務,使我們能夠增加份額並在長期內為股東創造卓越的價值。我們可以進行的最重要的投資是在我們的員工身上,這就是為什麼我們宣布我們將增加一線小時工的年化薪酬約 10 億美元。我們相信這項投資將使我們在市場上處於有利地位,使我們不僅能夠吸引最合格的人才,而且還能保留已經存在的優秀員工基礎。

  • Today, our Board approved a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend to $2.09 per share, which equates to an annual dividend of $8.36 per share.

    今天,我們的董事會批准將季度股息增加 10% 至每股 2.09 美元,相當於每股 8.36 美元的年度股息。

  • Turning to 2023. We are targeting approximately flat comp sales and a mid-single-digit percent decline in diluted earnings per share compared to last year. Richard will take you through the details in a moment.

    轉向 2023 年。我們的目標是與去年相比,公司銷售額大致持平,攤薄後每股收益下降中個位數百分比。稍後理查德將帶您了解詳細信息。

  • While we expect this to be a year of moderation in demand for home improvement, we believe that the long-term underpinnings of our market remains strong and we are well positioned to leverage our distinct competitive advantages to capitalize on compelling growth opportunities in our space. I could not be more pleased with the resilience and strength that our associates have continued to demonstrate, and I want to thank them and our supplier partners for their hard work and dedication to serving our customers and communities.

    雖然我們預計今年是家居裝修需求放緩的一年,但我們相信我們市場的長期基礎依然強勁,我們有能力利用我們獨特的競爭優勢來利用我們領域引人注目的增長機會。我對我們的員工不斷展現的韌性和力量感到非常高興,我要感謝他們和我們的供應商合作夥伴為我們的客戶和社區服務的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

  • Now I'm going to turn it over to Ann-Marie Campbell, Executive Vice President of U.S. Stores and International Operations, to share a little more on how we are taking care of our associates and continuing to enhance the customer experience.

    現在我將把它交給美國商店和國際運營執行副總裁 Ann-Marie Campbell,分享更多關於我們如何照顧我們的員工並繼續提升客戶體驗的信息。

  • Ann-Marie Campbell - EVP of U.S. Stores & International Operations

    Ann-Marie Campbell - EVP of U.S. Stores & International Operations

  • Thanks, Ted, and good morning, everyone. I'm very excited to have the opportunity to spend a few minutes talking about the best team in retail and the many ways we are investing in the associate experience at The Home Depot.

    謝謝,泰德,大家早上好。我很高興有機會花幾分鐘時間談論零售業最好的團隊,以及我們投資於家得寶員工體驗的多種方式。

  • We know that our associates are a key differentiator and they are essential in helping us sustain the customer experience we strive for. In order to provide the best customer experience in home improvement, we must focus on cultivating the best associate experience in retail. So what does this mean to us? This means not only investing in competitive wages and benefits, but also providing tools, training and development opportunities that make working at the Home Depot and enjoyable and rewarding experience.

    我們知道我們的員工是一個關鍵的差異化因素,他們對於幫助我們維持我們所追求的客戶體驗至關重要。為了在家裝方面提供最佳的客戶體驗,我們必須專注於培養最佳的零售店員體驗。那麼這對我們意味著什麼呢?這意味著不僅要投資有競爭力的工資和福利,還要提供工具、培訓和發展機會,使在 Home Depot 的工作成為愉快而有益的體驗。

  • As Ted mentioned, we are making a significant investment of approximately $1 billion in compensation for frontline hourly associates. This is a meaningful investment that we believe will position us favorably in the marketplace. But this is just one component of the associate investment story. We know that the key to an engaged and committed workforce is investing in the person, taking an interest in them and in their development.

    正如 Ted 所提到的,我們正在對一線小時工的薪酬進行大約 10 億美元的重大投資。這是一項有意義的投資,我們相信這將使我們在市場上處於有利地位。但這只是聯合投資故事的一個組成部分。我們知道,打造敬業和忠誠的員工隊伍的關鍵是對人進行投資,對他們和他們的發展感興趣。

  • To that end, we began the year with a new store leadership structure, the first time we have changed the structure since our company was founded. The driving forces of these changes were customer service and associate development. We created new management positions focused entirely on the customer service experience, increasing the number of managers on the floor at any given time. This frees up time for other store leaders to devote to associate training and development. The net result of all this is both an improved customer and associate experience while also creating new career paths for our associates.

    為此,我們在年初採用了新的門店領導結構,這是自公司成立以來我們第一次改變結構。這些變化的驅動力是客戶服務和員工發展。我們設立了完全專注於客戶服務體驗的新管理職位,隨時增加現場管理人員的數量。這可以騰出時間讓其他店長投入員工培訓和發展。所有這一切的最終結果是改善了客戶和員工體驗,同時也為我們的員工創造了新的職業道路。

  • Another important element of a best-in-class associate experience rests on simplification, how can we simplify processes and systems in our stores to enable associates to deliver a better customer experience. And how can we simplify and streamline paths so that an associate can spend more time serving our customers. One example we have talked about before is the work we've done to simplify order management in our stores with the Order Up initiative. Historically, our associates have to navigate dozens of systems, but with Order Up, we have been able to streamline multiple systems into one that is simpler and more intuitive.

    一流店員體驗的另一個重要因素在於簡化,即我們如何簡化商店中的流程和系統,使店員能夠提供更好的客戶體驗。以及我們如何簡化和精簡路徑,以便員工可以花更多時間為我們的客戶服務。我們之前談到的一個例子是我們通過 Order Up 計劃為簡化商店中的訂單管理所做的工作。過去,我們的員工必須瀏覽數十個系統,但通過 Order Up,我們已經能夠將多個系統簡化為一個更簡單、更直觀的系統。

  • We took simplification even further this year with the introduction of the new HD phone and associated applications such as Sidekick. The rollout of our HD phone was a direct result of associate feedback on the limitations of our first-generation in all devices known as FIRST Phones. For the first time ever, every associate on the floor will have an HD phone in their hand with enhanced communication features, tools and training capabilities. This increased accessibility to real-time support is significant in helping our associates better serve our customers.

    今年我們進一步簡化了流程,推出了新的高清電話和相關應用程序,例如 Sidekick。我們的高清電話的推出是相關反饋對我們第一代所有設備(稱為 FIRST 電話)的局限性的直接結果。有史以來第一次,車間裡的每個員工都將手握一部具有增強通信功能、工具和培訓功能的高清電話。這種對實時支持的可訪問性增加對於幫助我們的員工更好地為客戶服務具有重要意義。

  • In addition to enhancing the customer service experience, the home -- the new HD phone provides real-time access to tools and applications such as Sidekick that helps associates prioritize the highest value tasks more effectively. Powered by machine learning, Sidekick directs associates to key bays where on-shelf availability is low or out exist. The HD phone empowers our associates to provide a best-in-class customer experience, increases operational efficiency and generally makes an associate job much easier. These are just a few examples of the many ways we're investing to enhance and improve the associate experience at The Home Depot.

    除了增強客戶服務體驗外,家庭——新的高清電話還提供對 Sidekick 等工具和應用程序的實時訪問,幫助員工更有效地確定最高價值任務的優先級。在機器學習的支持下,Sidekick 將員工引導至貨架可用性低或不存在的關鍵區域。高清電話使我們的員工能夠提供一流的客戶體驗,提高運營效率,並通常使員工的工作更加輕鬆。這些只是我們投資以增強和改善 The Home Depot 員工體驗的眾多方式中的幾個例子。

  • Our associates are trusted advisers for our customers and are the heartbeat of our company, and I want to thank them for all they do to take care of our customers. We will continue to invest in them with a focus on listening to their needs, maintaining competitive wages and benefits and continuing to enhance our tools, training and development opportunities.

    我們的員工是我們客戶值得信賴的顧問,是我們公司的核心,我要感謝他們為照顧我們的客戶所做的一切。我們將繼續投資於他們,重點是傾聽他們的需求,保持有競爭力的工資和福利,並繼續增強我們的工具、培訓和發展機會。

  • With that, let me turn the call over to Jeff.

    有了這個,讓我把電話轉給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

    Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

  • Thank you, Ann, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by also thanking all of our associates and supplier partners for their ongoing commitment to serving our customers and communities.

    謝謝你,安,大家早上好。首先,我還要感謝我們所有的員工和供應商合作夥伴,感謝他們一直致力於為我們的客戶和社區提供服務。

  • During the fourth quarter, our comp average ticket increased 5.8% and comp transactions decreased 6%. The growth in our comp average ticket was driven primarily by inflation across our product categories as well as demand for new and innovative products. Inflation from core commodity categories positively impacted our average ticket growth by approximately 15 basis points during the fourth quarter.

    第四季度,我們的平均票價增長了 5.8%,交易量下降了 6%。我們平均票價的增長主要是由我們產品類別的通貨膨脹以及對新產品和創新產品的需求推動的。核心商品類別的通脹在第四季度對我們的平均票價增長產生了大約 15 個基點的積極影響。

  • On lumber specifically, during the fourth quarter, we saw a significant decline in lumber prices relative to a year ago. On average, lumber prices were down over 50% year-over-year. Given this dynamic, comp sales were negatively impacted by approximately 70 basis points in the fourth quarter.

    具體到木材,在第四季度,我們看到木材價格與一年前相比大幅下降。平均而言,木材價格同比下降超過 50%。鑑於這種動態,comp 銷售額在第四季度受到了大約 70 個基點的負面影響。

  • Turning to our department comp performance for the fourth quarter. 7 of our 14 merchandising departments posted positive comps. Build materials, plumbing, millwork, hardware, tools, outdoor garden and paint had comps above the company average. Big ticket comp transactions, or those over $1,000, were up 3.8% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. While we saw big ticket strength across Pro-heavy categories like portable power, pipe and fittings and gypsum, we did experience softness in other categories like laundry, soft flooring and roofing.

    談談我們部門第四季度的業績表現。我們 14 個銷售部門中有 7 個發布了積極的補償。建築材料、管道、木製品、硬件、工具、戶外花園和油漆的價格高於公司平均水平。與去年第四季度相比,大額補償交易(即超過 1,000 美元的交易)增長了 3.8%。雖然我們在便攜式電源、管道和配件以及石膏等專業重型類別中看到了巨大的優勢,但我們確實在洗衣、軟地板和屋頂等其他類別中感受到了柔軟度。

  • During the fourth quarter, Pro sales growth outpaced DIY. Pro backlog still remain elevated compared to historical averages, and we saw positive comp performance in our build materials, plumbing and millwork departments as well as in certain bath-related categories.

    第四季度,Pro 銷售額增長超過 DIY。與歷史平均水平相比,專業積壓仍處於高位,我們在建築材料、管道和木製品部門以及某些與浴室相關的類別中看到了積極的競爭表現。

  • Turning to total company online sales. We are very pleased with the performance of our digital assets. Sales leveraging our digital platforms increased over 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year. This was driven by our continued investments, which are resonating with our customers. For those customers that chose to transact with us online during the fourth quarter, approximately 45% of our online orders were fulfilled through our stores, a testament to the power of our interconnected retail strategy.

    轉向公司在線總銷售額。我們對我們數字資產的表現感到非常滿意。與去年第四季度相比,利用我們數字平台的銷售額增長了 4% 以上。這是由我們的持續投資推動的,這引起了我們客戶的共鳴。對於那些在第四季度選擇與我們在線交易的客戶,我們大約 45% 的在線訂單是通過我們的商店完成的,這證明了我們相互關聯的零售戰略的力量。

  • During the fourth quarter, we held our decorative holiday, gift center and Black Friday events. 2022 was a record sales year for these events. We are the product authority in home improvement and together with our supplier partners, we continue to offer the best product at the best value for our customers every day. A great example of this is our recent partnership with Ecolab, a global leader in water, hygiene and infection prevention solutions and services. The Ecolab Scientific Clean product line offers the cleaning solutions for commercial, industrial and residential use that Ecolab is known for to both our Pro and DIY customers, giving them access to innovative cleaning technology, and this partnership is exclusive to the Home Depot. It marks the first of its kind in Ecolab's 100-year history.

    在第四季度,我們舉辦了裝飾節日、禮品中心和黑色星期五活動。 2022 年是這些活動創紀錄的銷售年。我們是家居裝修領域的產品權威,與我們的供應商合作夥伴一起,我們每天繼續以最佳價值為我們的客戶提供最好的產品。一個很好的例子就是我們最近與 Ecolab 的合作夥伴關係,Ecolab 是水、衛生和感染預防解決方案和服務領域的全球領導者。 Ecolab Scientific Clean 產品線提供商業、工業和住宅用途的清潔解決方案,Ecolab 以我們的專業和 DIY 客戶而聞名,使他們能夠獲得創新的清潔技術,這種合作夥伴關係是 Home Depot 獨有的。它標誌著 Ecolab 100 年曆史上同類產品中的第一個。

  • We're looking forward to the year ahead, particularly with the spring selling season right around the corner. We have a great lineup of products from live goods to outdoor power equipment. We continue to see an industry-wide shift from gas-powered to battery-powered tools. And as we've been discussing for some time, we have been leaning into this trend, offering a broad assortment of outdoor power equipment with cordless technology. We have the brands that matter across tools and outdoor power, including RYOBI, Milwaukee, DEWALT and Makita.

    我們對來年充滿期待,尤其是在即將到來的春季銷售旺季。從直播用品到戶外動力設備,我們擁有豐富的產品陣容。我們繼續看到整個行業從氣動工具轉向電池驅動工具。正如我們已經討論了一段時間,我們一直在順應這一趨勢,提供種類繁多的採用無線技術的戶外電源設備。我們擁有重要的工具和戶外動力品牌,包括 RYOBI、Milwaukee、DEWALT 和 Makita。

  • In our spring gift center event, we are expanding our assortment to include cordless innovation in mowers, trimmers, blowers and chainsaws. As an example, our Makita XGT platform will have over 125 professional-grade cordless tools. I'm particularly excited about our new 40-volt XGT mower that delivers gas-powered performance with high vacuum lift for premium cut quality. The XGT mower can cut over an acre in less than 60 minutes on 2 40-volt XGT batteries. These Makita tools are exclusive to The Home Depot in the big-box retail channel.

    在我們的春季禮品中心活動中,我們正在擴大我們的產品種類,以包括割草機、修剪器、鼓風機和電鋸中的無繩創新產品。例如,我們的 Makita XGT 平台將擁有超過 125 種專業級無繩工具。我對我們的新型 40 伏 XGT 割草機感到特別興奮,它提供氣動性能和高真空提升,可實現優質切割質量。使用 2 塊 40 伏 XGT 電池,XGT 割草機可以在不到 60 分鐘的時間內切割一英畝土地。這些 Makita 工具是大型零售渠道中 The Home Depot 獨有的。

  • One of our key focuses in the spring is to provide great value and innovation for our customers within our live goods offerings. We continually work to strengthen our relationship with key vendors throughout the industry, providing the best value, innovation and guarded performance for our customers. We have expanded our offerings in national, regional and proprietary brands such as Vigoro, Rio, PROVEN WINNERS, Southern Living and Knock Out Rose, just to name a few. Our teams continue to look for better garden performance varieties that provide solutions for our customers, and we are excited about the upcoming spring season.

    我們春季的重點之一是在我們的現場商品中為我們的客戶提供巨大的價值和創新。我們不斷努力加強與整個行業主要供應商的關係,為我們的客戶提供最佳價值、創新和安全性能。我們擴大了我們在國家、地區和專有品牌的產品範圍,例如 Vigoro、Rio、PROVEN WINNERS、Southern Living 和 Knock Out Rose,僅舉幾例。我們的團隊繼續尋找更好的花園性能品種,為我們的客戶提供解決方案,我們對即將到來的春季感到興奮。

  • With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Richard.

    有了這個,我想把電話轉給理查德。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, total sales were $35.8 billion, an increase of approximately $100 million or 0.3% from last year. During the fourth quarter, our total company comps were essentially flat at negative 0.3% for the quarter. As Jeff mentioned, lumber prices in the quarter negatively impacted comp sales by approximately 70 basis points. We had comps of negative 1.3% in November, positive 0.8% in December and negative 0.1% in January. Comps in the U.S. were negative 0.3% for the quarter with negative comps of 0.4% in -- 1.4% in November, positive 0.7% in December and negative 0.1% in January.

    謝謝你,傑夫,大家早上好。第四季度,總銷售額為 358 億美元,比去年增加約 1 億美元或 0.3%。在第四季度,我們公司的總收入在本季度基本持平,為負 0.3%。正如 Jeff 所提到的,本季度的木材價格對 comp 銷售額產生了大約 70 個基點的負面影響。我們 11 月的複合率為負 1.3%,12 月為正 0.8%,1 月為負 0.1%。美國本季度的 Comps 為負 0.3%,11 月為 0.4% - 1.4%,12 月為正 0.7%,1 月為負 0.1%。

  • For the year, our sales totaled a record $157.4 billion with sales growth of $6.2 billion or 4.1% versus fiscal 2021. For the year, total company comp sales increased 3.1% and U.S. comp sales increased 2.9%. In the fourth quarter, our gross margin was approximately 33.3%, an increase of 7 basis points from last year. For the year, our gross margin was approximately 33.5%, a decrease of 10 basis points from last year. Gross margin was in line with our expectations, reflecting planned investments in our supply chain capabilities.

    今年,我們的銷售額總計達到創紀錄的 1574 億美元,與 2021 財年相比銷售額增長 62 億美元或 4.1%。全年,公司總銷售額增長 3.1%,美國公司銷售額增長 2.9%。第四季度,我們的毛利率約為 33.3%,較去年同期增長 7 個基點。全年,我們的毛利率約為 33.5%,較去年下降 10 個基點。毛利率符合我們的預期,反映了我們對供應鏈能力的計劃投資。

  • Throughout the year, we continued to successfully offset significant transportation and product cost pressures as well as increased pressure from shrink during the back half of the year, and we did this while maintaining our position as the customer's advocate for value.

    全年,我們繼續成功地抵消了巨大的運輸和產品成本壓力以及下半年因收縮而增加的壓力,我們在這樣做的同時保持了我們作為客戶價值倡導者的地位。

  • During the fourth quarter, operating expenses were approximately 20% of sales, representing an increase of 32 basis points from last year. Our operating expense deleverage is driven largely by charges unique to the quarter related to litigation in California, storm-related expenses and an unfortunate fire in one of our stores. For the year, operating expenses were approximately 18.3% of sales, representing a decrease of 13 basis points from fiscal 2021. Our operating margin for the fourth quarter was approximately 13.3% and for the year was approximately 15.3%. Interest and other expense for the fourth quarter increased by $85 million to $408 million due primarily to higher long-term debt levels than 1 year ago.

    第四季度,營業費用約佔銷售額的 20%,比去年增加 32 個基點。我們的運營費用去槓桿化主要是由本季度特有的費用驅動的,這些費用與加利福尼亞州的訴訟、風暴相關的費用以及我們一家商店的不幸火災有關。全年,營業費用約為銷售額的 18.3%,比 2021 財年下降 13 個基點。我們第四季度的營業利潤率約為 13.3%,全年約為 15.3%。第四季度的利息和其他費用增加了 8500 萬美元,達到 4.08 億美元,這主要是由於長期債務水平高於一年前。

  • In the fourth quarter, our effective tax rate was 22.6% and for fiscal 2022 was 23.9%. Our diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter were $3.30, an increase of 2.8% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Diluted earnings per share for fiscal 2022 were $16.69, an increase of 7.5% compared to fiscal 2021. During the year, we opened 6 new stores and lost a store in California due to a fire, bringing our store count to 2,322 at the end of fiscal 2022.

    第四季度,我們的有效稅率為 22.6%,2022 財年為 23.9%。我們第四季度的攤薄後每股收益為 3.30 美元,與 2021 年第四季度相比增長 2.8%。2022 財年的攤薄後每股收益為 16.69 美元,與 2021 財年相比增長 7.5%。在這一年中,我們由於火災,我們在加利福尼亞開設了 6 家新店並失去了一家商店,使我們的商店數量在 2022 財年末達到 2,322 家。

  • Retail selling square footage was approximately 241 million square feet at the end of fiscal 2022. Total sales per retail square foot were approximately $627 in fiscal 2022, the highest annual figure in our company's history. At the end of the quarter, merchandise inventories were $24.9 billion, an increase of $2.8 billion versus last year, and inventory turns were 4.2x, down from 5.2x from the same period last year.

    到 2022 財年末,零售銷售面積約為 2.41 億平方英尺。2022 財年每零售平方英尺的總銷售額約為 627 美元,是我們公司歷史上的最高年度數字。本季度末,商品庫存為 249 億美元,比去年增加 28 億美元,庫存周轉率為 4.2 倍,低於去年同期的 5.2 倍。

  • Moving to capital allocation. During the fourth quarter, we invested approximately $900 million back into our business in the form of capital expenditures. This brings total capital expenditures for fiscal 2022 to $3.1 billion. During the year, we paid approximately $7.8 billion of dividends to our shareholders. We look to grow our dividend every year as we grow earnings, and as Ted mentioned, today, we announced our Board of Directors increased our quarterly dividend by 10% to $2.09 per share, which equates to an annual dividend of $8.36 per share.

    轉向資本配置。在第四季度,我們以資本支出的形式向我們的業務投資了大約 9 億美元。這使 2022 財年的資本支出總額達到 31 億美元。年內,我們向股東支付了約 78 億美元的股息。隨著收益的增長,我們希望每年增加股息,正如泰德所說,今天,我們宣布董事會將季度股息提高 10% 至每股 2.09 美元,相當於每股 8.36 美元的年度股息。

  • And finally, during fiscal 2022, we returned approximately $6.5 billion to our shareholders in the form of share repurchases, including $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter. Computed on the average of beginning and ending long-term debt and equity for the trailing 12 months, return on invested capital was 44.6% compared to 44.7% at the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021.

    最後,在 2022 財年,我們以股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 65 億美元,其中包括第四季度的 15 億美元。根據過去 12 個月期初和期末長期債務和股權的平均值計算,投資資本回報率為 44.6%,而 2021 財年第四季度末為 44.7%。

  • Now I'll comment on our outlook for 2023. As we think about how 2023 might unfold, we think it's helpful to look back on our performance since 2019. From 2019 through 2022, we grew sales by $47.2 billion, a compound annual rate of 12.6%. During the first 5 quarters of this period, from the first quarter of 2020 through the first quarter of 2021, our sales were driven by significant ticket and transaction growth. This growth reflects factors unique to home improvement as homeowners spent more time in their homes and took on more projects as they saw their homes significantly increase in value over that period.

    現在我將評論我們對 2023 年的展望。當我們思考 2023 年可能會如何發展時,我們認為回顧我們自 2019 年以來的表現會有所幫助。從 2019 年到 2022 年,我們的銷售額增長了 472 億美元,複合年增長率為12.6%。在此期間的前 5 個季度,從 2020 年第一季度到 2021 年第一季度,我們的銷售受到機票和交易量顯著增長的推動。這種增長反映了房屋改善的獨特因素,因為房主在他們的房屋上花費了更多的時間並進行了更多的項目,因為他們看到他們的房屋在此期間價值顯著增加。

  • The home improvement market also captured a greater share of the consumer's wallet, as spending on goods outpaced spending on services during the period. Beginning in the second quarter of 2021 and continuing through the fourth quarter of 2022, we reported strong sales and earnings growth driven by ticket, while transactions steadily normalized back towards 2019 levels, as the broader consumer economy shifted from goods and back into services. During this time, we continued to report positive sales growth in every quarter up to present.

    在此期間,家居裝修市場也佔據了消費者更大的錢包份額,因為商品支出超過了服務支出。從 2021 年第二季度開始一直持續到 2022 年第四季度,我們報告說,隨著更廣泛的消費經濟從商品轉向服務,銷售和收入在門票的推動下強勁增長,而交易穩步恢復到 2019 年的水平。在此期間,我們繼續報告每個季度的銷售正增長,直到現在。

  • As we set targets for 2023, the context of the past 3 years led us to consider 3 factors that will likely influence our performance this year. First, the starting point for our target setting this year is our assumption regarding consumer spending. We've assumed, like many economists, that we will see flat real economic growth and consumer spending in 2023. Second, over the last 7 quarters, we have seen our transactions gradually normalize as consumer spending has shifted from goods to services. We believe that if this shift continues at its current pace, the home improvement market would be down low single digits. And third, as an offset to this pressure, we plan to continue to capture market share. Our competitive advantages, the investments we have made over many years and the unique advantage that our orange-blooded associates give us over our competition position us to take share in any environment.

    在我們設定 2023 年目標時,過去 3 年的背景使我們考慮了可能會影響我們今年業績的 3 個因素。首先,我們今年設定目標的出發點是我們對消費支出的假設。與許多經濟學家一樣,我們假設 2023 年的實際經濟增長和消費者支出將持平。其次,在過去 7 個季度中,隨著消費者支出從商品轉向服務,我們看到交易逐漸正常化。我們認為,如果這種轉變以目前的速度繼續下去,家居裝修市場將下降個位數。第三,為了抵消這種壓力,我們計劃繼續佔領市場份額。我們的競爭優勢、我們多年來所做的投資以及我們的橙血員工為我們提供的獨特優勢,使我們能夠在任何環境中佔有一席之地。

  • Taking these factors into account, we are targeting approximately flat sales and comp sales growth for 2023. Further, our operating margin target of 14.5% reflects approximately 60 basis points of impact from the compensation investment we announced today. Our effective tax rate is targeted at approximately 24.5%. Our diluted earnings per share is targeted to decline by a mid-single-digit percentage. Outside of this target setting, if lumber prices remain at current levels for the remainder of our fiscal year, that would equate to approximately 100 basis points of pressure to comp sales and an insignificant impact to earnings. At today's current price, this would imply more pressure in the first half than in the rest of the year.

    考慮到這些因素,我們的目標是 2023 年的銷售額和復合銷售額大致持平。此外,我們 14.5% 的營業利潤率目標反映了我們今天宣布的薪酬投資產生的約 60 個基點的影響。我們的實際稅率目標是大約 24.5%。我們的稀釋後每股收益目標是下降中個位數百分比。在這個目標設定之外,如果木材價格在我們財政年度的剩餘時間內保持在當前水平,那將相當於約 100 個基點的銷售壓力和對收益的微不足道的影響。以目前的價格計算,這意味著上半年的壓力要大於今年剩餘時間。

  • We plan to continue investing in our business with CapEx of approximately 2% of sales on an annual basis. After investing in our business and paying our dividend, it's our intent to return excess cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases.

    我們計劃繼續投資於我們的業務,每年的資本支出約為銷售額的 2%。在投資我們的業務並支付股息後,我們打算以股票回購的形式將多餘的現金返還給股東。

  • We believe that we have positioned ourselves to meet the needs of our customers in any environment. The investments we've made in our business have enabled agility in our operating model. As we look forward, we will continue to invest to strengthen our position with customers, leverage our scale and low-cost position to drive growth faster than the market and deliver shareholder value.

    我們相信,我們已將自己定位為在任何環境下都能滿足客戶的需求。我們對業務的投資使我們的運營模式更加靈活。展望未來,我們將繼續投資以加強我們在客戶中的地位,利用我們的規模和低成本地位來推動比市場更快的增長,並為股東創造價值。

  • Thank you for your participation in today's call. And Christine, we are now ready for questions.

    感謝您參與今天的電話會議。 Christine,我們現在準備好提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Michael Lasser。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Ted, in this environment, we're all just kind of guessing, but we assume that your guesses are a lot more educated than any of the rest of us. And in that case, what do you see as the downside risk for the home improvement market, in turn Home Depot, this year, both in terms of the depth of a potential decline and the duration of a downturn. And in that case, how would Home Depot's earnings look in that scenario?

    泰德,在這種環境下,我們都只是在猜測,但我們假設你的猜測比我們其他人都更有根據。在這種情況下,您認為家裝市場的下行風險是什麼,而今年又是家得寶,無論是潛在下降的深度還是低迷的持續時間。在這種情況下,Home Depot 的盈利情況如何?

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Well, Michael, thanks for the question. We'll certainly address that. But before we go into the downside, I'd like to set the tone on what we see that's favorable in the business trends. And we feel very good about our business. As we've just referenced, we've grown the business $47 billion over the last 3 years and grown earnings 60% during that time. Our associates did an amazing job focusing on the customer in this challenging environment, and there's really no way we would have captured that much share had we not been making the investments over the past few years.

    好吧,邁克爾,謝謝你的提問。我們一定會解決這個問題。但在我們進入下行趨勢之前,我想為我們所看到的對商業趨勢有利的方面定下基調。我們對我們的業務感覺非常好。正如我們剛剛提到的,我們在過去 3 年中使業務增長了 470 億美元,在此期間收入增長了 60%。在這個充滿挑戰的環境中,我們的員工在關注客戶方面做得非常出色,如果我們在過去幾年沒有進行投資,我們真的不可能獲得那麼多的份額。

  • We also still see a healthy customer. I mean we have good jobs, job growth, growing wages, still strong balance sheets. And most of our customers tend to own their home, which has seen a significant increase in value. But as we've said, we do see a unique environment with many cross currents right now. Obviously, there's heightened inflation and rising interest rates, a tight labor market and moderating equity and housing markets.

    我們也仍然看到一個健康的客戶。我的意思是我們有很好的工作,就業增長,工資增長,資產負債表仍然強勁。而且我們的大多數客戶都傾向於擁有自己的房屋,而房屋的價值已顯著增加。但正如我們所說,我們現在確實看到了一個具有許多交叉流的獨特環境。顯然,通脹加劇、利率上升、勞動力市場緊張、股市和房地產市場放緩。

  • So given all that, we do expect moderation in home improvement demand. Pro backlogs are still healthy, Michael, although they are off their peak from last year. And customers are still spending time at home. Homes are aging and worth about 40% more than they were before the start of the pandemic. But people are also starting to shift spend more towards services. And as we've said, we see some more price sensitivity. So given all that, we've set the stage for a moderating year in 2023, and Richard will take you through some of the downside cases that you alluded to.

    因此,鑑於這一切,我們確實預計家居裝修需求會有所放緩。專業積壓仍然很健康,邁克爾,儘管他們已經脫離了去年的高峰。客戶仍在家裡度過時光。房屋正在老化,其價值比大流行開始前高出約 40%。但人們也開始將更多支出轉向服務。正如我們所說,我們看到了更多的價格敏感性。因此,考慮到所有這些,我們已經為 2023 年的溫和年份奠定了基礎,理查德將帶您了解您提到的一些不利情況。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • So -- yes. So Michael, just to recap quickly, the way that we set our target and our guidance for the year was to first start with the assumption of flat consumer spending. And then with respect to the goods sector of the economy, and as I said, over the last 7 quarters, we've seen that shift across the consumer economy from goods to services. So we would anticipate this would put slight pressure on our market. And then we look to overcome that by taking share in the manner that we've done consistently over the past several years. So we're targeting flat.

    所以——是的。所以邁克爾,快速回顧一下,我們設定今年目標和指導的方式是首先假設消費者支出持平。然後關於經濟的商品部門,正如我所說,在過去的 7 個季度中,我們已經看到整個消費經濟從商品到服務的轉變。因此,我們預計這會給我們的市場帶來輕微壓力。然後我們希望通過分享我們在過去幾年中一貫所做的方式來克服這一點。所以我們的目標是持平。

  • If you -- there are so many factors that influence our market right now, as Ted alluded to. But if you were to take a hypothetical situation, let's just think about that share shift that we call out. So we look at the share that we currently capture as a share of consumption, PCE, and we've tracked that through the COVID period and over the last few years. As we said in our guidance, that share shift continued at the rates at which we have seen it behave. Currently, we would expect the market to face low single-digit negative pressure.

    如果你——正如泰德提到的那樣,現在影響我們市場的因素太多了。但是,如果您要假設一個情況,那麼讓我們考慮一下我們所說的份額轉移。因此,我們將目前捕獲的份額視為消費 PCE 的份額,並且我們在 COVID 期間和過去幾年中對其進行了跟踪。正如我們在指南中所說,這種份額轉移繼續以我們所看到的速度進行。目前,我們預計市場將面臨較低的個位數負壓。

  • But if you were to take perhaps a more extreme case and say if that share of PCE that our market holds were to shift all the way back to 2019 levels by the end of the year, that would imply pressure of, call it, mid-single-digit percentages. And so that would sort of be one way to get your mind around a hypothetical case where share shift happens more rapidly than it has been.

    但如果你舉一個更極端的例子,如果我們的市場持有的 PCE 份額在年底前一路回落到 2019 年的水平,那將意味著中期壓力。個位數的百分比。因此,這將是一種讓你思考一個假設案例的方法,在這個假設案例中,份額轉移的速度比以往更快。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • So in an environment where the market is down mid-single digits, presumably, Home Depot is going to do better than that. It will take some market share. So can you frame out what you think the decremental margins would be in a down 3 or 4 type scenario? And as part of that, where do you think you would see this first? You're already starting to experience some challenges in areas like soft flooring and others that you outlined. Is that a precursor to weakness that you might experience in other categories?

    因此,在市場下跌中個位數的環境中,據推測,Home Depot 的表現會更好。它將佔據一些市場份額。那麼,您能否勾勒出您認為在下降 3 或 4 類型的情況下利潤率遞減的情況?作為其中的一部分,您認為您會首先在哪裡看到它?您已經開始在軟地板和您概述的其他領域遇到一些挑戰。這是您可能在其他類別中遇到的弱點的前兆嗎?

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • So just to keep it simple because share shift is not a perfect science. In a hypothetical case, and again, we're not guiding this way, this is not a downside case, but in a hypothetical situation, that share shift, if our comps were to be mid-single-digit negative, we would see operating margin around 14% as kind of a corollary to that hypothetical situation.

    所以只是為了簡單起見,因為份額轉移並不是一門完美的科學。在一個假設的情況下,再一次,我們沒有這樣指導,這不是一個不利的情況,但在一個假設的情況下,如果我們的 comp 是中個位數的負值,那麼我們會看到運營作為該假設情況的必然結果,保證金約為 14%。

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And Michael, Jeff can give some further detail. But the price sensitivity is -- while it's a bit broader in Q4 than we saw in Q3, it's still primarily those larger single ticket, more discretionary items that we've referenced before, appliances, grills, patio, but still being a project-oriented business. And with the Pro backlog, again, albeit down, still strong, we're still seeing strong project business. But there is a bit more overall sensitivity as we saw more one-for-one offset with ticket and transaction in Q4.

    邁克爾,傑夫可以提供更多細節。但價格敏感性是——雖然第四季度比我們在第三季度看到的範圍更廣,但它仍然主要是我們之前提到的那些更大的單票、更多的可自由支配的項目,電器、烤架、庭院,但仍然是一個項目——面向業務。由於 Pro 積壓,雖然有所下降,但仍然強勁,我們仍然看到強勁的項目業務。但總體敏感性更高,因為我們在第四季度看到更多的機票和交易一對一抵消。

  • Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

    Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

  • Yes. Thank you, Ted. So yes, in general, to your comments, more broad than what we saw in the third quarter but still very good project demand. If you look at the 7 departments that outperformed, the plumbing business, build materials, millwork, hardware, tools and paint above our company average and just reflected the strength of the project business. To your point, Michael, we're watching categories like flooring very closely. We're working assortments. We're working different opportunities in the market to look at what's happening in categories like flooring. But some broader-based sensitivity, but still good strength in the overall business.

    是的。謝謝你,泰德。所以是的,總的來說,根據您的評論,比我們在第三季度看到的更廣泛,但項目需求仍然非常好。如果你看一下表現出色的 7 個部門,管道業務、建築材料、木製品、硬件、工具和油漆高於我們公司的平均水平,正好反映了項目業務的實力。就你的觀點而言,邁克爾,我們正在密切關注地板等類別。我們正在分類。我們正在市場上尋找不同的機會來研究地板等類別的情況。但一些更廣泛的敏感性,但在整體業務中仍然具有良好的實力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli with Truist.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Scot Ciccarelli 與 Truist 的對話。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • So can you please clarify your expectations for unit elasticity if we were to start to see same -- see inflation pressures ease? And then secondly, any common denominators in categories or geographies where you're starting to see some of the incremental softness?

    那麼,如果我們開始看到相同的情況 - 看到通脹壓力緩解,您能否澄清您對單位彈性的預期?其次,您開始看到一些漸進的軟性的類別或地理區域中的任何共同點?

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Sure, Scot. I think the last 2 years, we've had the same guidance that we're having this year, and that is that whatever inflation is represented in our average unit retail in ticket would be offset by transaction. So we started the year thinking about a balance of ticket and transaction and that higher ticket driven by inflation would be offset with transactions.

    當然,蘇格蘭人。我認為在過去的 2 年裡,我們的指導方針與今年的指導方針相同,那就是我們的平均單位門票零售價所代表的任何通貨膨脹都會被交易所抵消。因此,我們在今年開始考慮機票和交易的平衡,而通貨膨脹導致的更高機票將被交易抵消。

  • The outperformance of the prior 2 years was that we didn't see that much sensitivity. The consumer, our customer was much more resilient, sort of purchase through that elasticity curve, if you will. What we are seeing now is some more sensitivity, and we had almost an exact one-for-one offset in Q4. That's what we're expecting for 2023 that there is still inflation. I mean we are still in an inflationary environment as we saw from CPI and PPI results last week, although it is abating and it's abating more, I would say, in our industry. Our costs on the table are much lower than they had been. Our wraparounds, and price moves going into '23 will be much lower than they had been in the prior 2 years. And so while we're still expecting an offset in transactions because the ticket won't be as high, the negative transactions won't be as low but still net to that flat guidance for 2023.

    前 2 年的出色表現是我們沒有看到那麼多的敏感性。消費者,我們的客戶更有彈性,如果你願意的話,可以通過彈性曲線進行購買。我們現在看到的是更敏感,我們在第四季度幾乎有一對一的抵消。這就是我們對 2023 年通脹仍然存在的預期。我的意思是,正如我們上週從 CPI 和 PPI 結果中看到的那樣,我們仍處於通貨膨脹環境中,儘管它正在減弱,而且我想說,在我們的行業中,它正在減弱。我們擺在桌面上的成本比以前低得多。我們的總結和進入 23 年的價格走勢將比前兩年低得多。因此,儘管我們仍然預計交易會有所抵消,因為票價不會那麼高,但負交易不會那麼低,但仍符合 2023 年的持平指導。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • Okay. And then any common denominator in terms of category or geographies where you're seeing some of the incremental softness? Is it just big ticket? Or is there...

    好的。然後在您看到一些增量軟化的類別或地理位置方面有任何共同點嗎?只是大票嗎?或者有沒有...

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Yes, big ticket would be the ones that I called out before that have continued with softness. In the geographies, while we had a little more variability of our comp range, there's no particular geography that you'd call out other than weather-impacted ones that would show anything off the mean for us.

    是的,大票將是我之前喊出的那些繼續保持柔軟。在地理位置方面,雖然我們的補償範圍有更多的可變性,但除了受天氣影響的地理位置會向我們展示任何偏離平均水平的情況外,您不會說出任何特定的地理位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Simeon Gutman 與摩根士丹利的對話。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • Maybe related to the last question, we've had -- home prices have decelerated for about 6 to 8 months now, and we know existing home sales are in deep negative territory. If you align your business against those trends and in markets where they're more pronounced, is there a decoupling? In other words, you -- the business is stable despite prices have fallen and existing home sales being down 20%, 30%.

    也許與最後一個問題有關,我們已經 - 房價已經減速了大約 6 到 8 個月,我們知道現有房屋銷售處於嚴重的負值區域。如果您將您的業務與這些趨勢以及這些趨勢更為明顯的市場相結合,是否存在脫鉤?換句話說,儘管價格下跌且現有房屋銷售下降 20%、30%,但您的業務仍然穩定。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Simeon. On home prices, we know over the long term that our business does correlate to price appreciation. Obviously, we've had unprecedented growth and appreciation since 2019. Home prices peaked in June of 2022. In fact, at that point, they were 45% higher than they were at the end of 2019. They have regressed by about 3% since that point. So we've seen some modest correction. But I can tell you, we have not seen an impact on a market-by-market basis since that peak. There's no relationship with comp sales and the home price appreciation or correction that we've seen.

    謝謝,西蒙。在房價方面,從長遠來看,我們知道我們的業務確實與房價上漲相關。顯然,自 2019 年以來,我們經歷了前所未有的增長和升值。房價在 2022 年 6 月達到頂峰。實際上,當時的房價比 2019 年底高出 45%。自那以來房價已經回落了約 3%那一點。所以我們看到了一些適度的修正。但我可以告訴你,自那個高峰以來,我們還沒有看到對逐個市場的影響。與我們所看到的比較銷售和房價升值或修正沒有關係。

  • On housing turnover, there's just that interesting dynamic of whether -- what is actually happening in housing turnover. There just aren't the willing sellers out there to the degree that they have been in past eras. We're in such a healthy -- our customer, our homeowner customers in such a healthy position that you just think about their motive for selling.

    關於住房周轉率,只有一種有趣的動態——住房周轉率實際發生了什麼。只是沒有像過去那樣願意的賣家了。我們處於如此健康的狀態——我們的客戶,我們的房主客戶處於如此健康的狀態,以至於你只需要考慮他們的銷售動機。

  • As you know, 90% -- over 90% of U.S. homeowners either own their homes outright or have fixed rate mortgages under 5%. And so that incentive to sell and move to a higher rate mortgage just isn't there. And in fact, the incentive is really there to improve in place. So it's hard to say what the sort of -- what the housing economy -- how the housing economy might impact us. But no, to answer your first question, to date, since 2022, we haven't seen a relationship.

    如您所知,90%——超過 90% 的美國房主要么完全擁有自己的房屋,要么擁有低於 5% 的固定利率抵押貸款。因此,出售和轉向更高利率抵押貸款的動機就不存在了。事實上,激勵措施確實存在,可以改進到位。所以很難說什麼樣的 - 什麼樣的住房經濟 - 住房經濟會如何影響我們。但是不,回答你的第一個問題,到目前為止,自 2022 年以來,我們還沒有看到任何關係。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • And a follow-up to a point that was made earlier that if the share of PCE reverts back to the 2019 level, do you take a view on this? Or is there any confidence that it doesn't. And it's a view really on digestion. We've seen a couple of categories in real terms, actually overcorrect the 2019, only 2 right now, but not home improvement, obviously. But how confident are you that we don't need to go back that far or that the digestion or so is done and we can hang out at the current share that we are?

    如果 PCE 的份額恢復到 2019 年的水平,您是否對此有看法?或者有沒有信心它沒有。這是一個真正關於消化的觀點。我們已經看到了幾個實際類別,實際上過度糾正了 2019 年,現在只有 2 個,但顯然不是家庭裝修。但是你對我們不需要回到那麼遠或者消化已經完成並且我們可以在目前的份額上閒逛有多大信心?

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think the only thing I look at really is the trajectory that we've observed. I think that's kind of the best information we can use. We're not making an assumption about whether, in your terms, there's full digestion or not.

    我認為我唯一真正關注的是我們觀察到的軌跡。我認為這是我們可以使用的最好的信息。我們不是在假設,用你們的話說,是否有完全消化。

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And Simeon, I would say this is -- we said this is a unique period and hard to gauge on the shortest horizon. But we are just so incredibly bullish on the longer horizon for this industry, just all the dynamics that we know about starting with the fundamental shortage of housing. I mean we're still -- whether it's 1 million, 2 million, 3 million units short in -- with household formation and population growth and aging housing stock, all the things that we talk about, I mean, that is all very much in place. And as the market works its way through PCE reversion or not or level of that and inflation mortgage rates, that will all settle and what you're left with is still a market that is underserved in housing units built. And over half the homes are over 40 years old. And as Richard said, they remain in place with owning the home in low mortgage rates. People are going to want to make more significant improvements on those homes. So we -- remaining just couldn't be more bullish on the longer-term view of this industry.

    Simeon,我想說這是——我們說過這是一個獨特的時期,很難在最短的時間內衡量。但我們非常看好這個行業的長期前景,就我們所知道的從住房基本短缺開始的所有動態。我的意思是,我們仍然 - 無論是 100 萬、200 萬、300 萬套住房短缺 - 家庭形成、人口增長和住房存量老化,我們談論的所有事情,我的意思是,這些都是非常多的到位。隨著市場通過 PCE 回歸或不回歸或 PCE 水平和通貨膨脹抵押貸款利率的方式運作,這一切都會解決,你剩下的仍然是一個在建造的住房單元中服務不足的市場。超過一半的房屋年齡超過 40 年。正如理查德所說,他們仍然以低抵押貸款利率擁有房屋。人們將希望對這些房屋進行更重大的改進。所以我們 - 仍然對這個行業的長期觀點更加樂觀。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Nagel 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

  • Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I had a couple of questions that are both maybe more philosophical. But first off -- and again, Ted, just some of the comments made here about increased price sensitivity, I think, on the part of your consumers, maybe that turned a little more severe than we saw in the third quarter. One of the big, I think -- I probably followed Home Depot for a long time, one of the big (inaudible) understand the data...

    我有幾個問題可能都更哲學化。但首先 - 再說一次,特德,我認為這裡只是一些關於價格敏感度增加的評論,就你的消費者而言,這可能比我們在第三季度看到的要嚴重一些。我想,其中一位大人物——我可能關注 Home Depot 很長一段時間,其中一位大人物(聽不清)了解數據……

  • Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

    Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

  • Brian, you're breaking up. Can you repeat that?

    布賴恩,你要分手了。你可以再說一遍嗎?

  • Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

    Brian William Nagel - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Now we'll move around here. But for the question, I'll make it short. The question I'm having is as you're looking at this with the consumer behavior we're all seeking or searching right now as for those signs of weakening consumer, given a tempered backdrop. But do you believe that we're still kind of in the one-off? What you're seeing is more one-off in nature? Or is this really the beginnings of a weaker trend coming that could persist over the next few quarters?

    現在我們將在這裡移動。但是對於這個問題,我會簡短一點。我遇到的問題是,在溫和的背景下,你正在用我們現在都在尋找或搜索的消費者行為來看待消費者疲軟的跡象。但是你認為我們仍然處於一次性狀態嗎?你看到的是一次性的嗎?還是這真的是未來幾個季度可能持續的疲軟趨勢的開始?

  • Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

    Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

  • Brian, it's Jeff. As we talked about price sensitivity earlier, we are seeing some additional sensitivity or saw some additional sensitivity in Q4 versus Q3. But let me give you a real-time example of how we're looking at the business, and I'll go to the cleaning business as an example. As I spoke about in my prepared remarks, we launched in this quarter Ecolab, which is a premium cleaning brand in the market, which we're seeing exceptional performance. It is a trade-up category for many consumers, many Pros, and we're just really, really excited about the partnership and the long-term opportunity in that category.

    布賴恩,是傑夫。正如我們之前談到價格敏感性時,我們看到了一些額外的敏感性,或者在第四季度與第三季度看到了一些額外的敏感性。但是讓我給你一個實時的例子,說明我們是如何看待這個行業的,我將以清潔行業為例。正如我在準備好的發言中所說,我們在本季度推出了 Ecolab,這是市場上的優質清潔品牌,我們看到了卓越的表現。對於許多消費者、許多專業人士來說,這是一個折衷的類別,我們對這一類別的合作夥伴關係和長期機會感到非常、非常興奮。

  • At the same time, we're expanding our HDX cleaning lineup, and that's just a great everyday value brand for our customers, and we're seeing a great pickup in that brand as well. So our merchants take the time by category to engineer what results they want to see, and cleaning is a great example there. At the same time, we're watching categories very closely like appliances, like patio furniture, like grills that we spoke about in Q3 and earlier today to ensure that we are positioned right for the current environment.

    與此同時,我們正在擴大我們的 HDX 清潔產品線,這對我們的客戶來說是一個很好的日常價值品牌,我們也看到該品牌的銷量很大。因此,我們的商家花時間按類別設計他們想要看到的結果,清潔就是一個很好的例子。與此同時,我們正在密切關注家電類產品,如庭院家具,以及我們在第三季度和今天早些時候談到的烤架,以確保我們在當前環境中處於正確的位置。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christopher Horvers。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • Can you talk about what you saw from a rate of change in DIY versus Pro in 4Q relative to 3Q? Are you seeing one side change faster than the other? And how does that inform how you're thinking about the business in '23?

    您能談談您從 DIY 與 Pro 在 4Q 相對於 3Q 的變化率中看到了什麼嗎?你看到一側的變化比另一側快嗎?這如何影響您對 23 世紀業務的看法?

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • I don't know if we saw a rate of change, Chris. The highlight remains the high-spend Pro. I mean that's still the strongest piece of the business. But I wouldn't say there was a rate of change much beyond that.

    我不知道我們是否看到了變化率,克里斯。亮點仍然是高消費的 Pro。我的意思是,這仍然是業務中最強大的部分。但我不會說變化率遠不止於此。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. And then, I guess, can you share your -- the puts and takes on the cadence of '23 from a top line perspective? You have DIY versus Pro. You've got tough lumber laps in the near term, but you also have the easier spring lap. And so how are you thinking about the cadence of the year? If you sort of had a -- did a 0 in 4Q and you ran seasonal, you can get to a lot of different outcomes. So how are you thinking about the cadence? And just to clarify, is the 100 basis points of lumber headwind in the top line guide?

    知道了。然後,我想,你能分享你的——從頂線的角度來看,23 年的節奏嗎?你有 DIY 和 Pro。在短期內你有艱難的木材圈,但你也有更容易的彈簧圈。那麼你如何看待今年的節奏?如果你有點——在第四季度做了一個 0 並且你是季節性的,你會得到很多不同的結果。那麼您如何看待節奏?澄清一下,頂線指南中的木材逆風是 100 個基點嗎?

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • Right. So Chris, our guidance assumes that we'll comp slightly lower in the first half than the second half. The lumber pressure we called out is sort of outside of guidance. There's so much volatility in that, that we would not want to put that in guidance. There is 100 basis points of pressure to the year. If lumber remains at current prices, that pressure exists predominantly in the first half.

    正確的。因此,克里斯,我們的指導假設我們上半年的業績會比下半年略低。我們提出的木材壓力有點超出指導範圍。這裡面有很大的波動性,我們不想把它放在指導中。年內有100個基點的壓力。如果木材保持當前價格,這種壓力主要存在於上半年。

  • Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

    Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

  • And Chris, as Richard mentioned, it's been a very turbulent couple of years in the lumber market. To give you an example of what we faced, in the fourth quarter on the framing side, lumber was $420 per thousand on average compared to $886 on average in 2021. To put that in retail dollar sense for everyone, a 2x4 stud, which is one of our top unit movers in the business, retail on average for $3.40 in the fourth quarter of this year. Last year, it was over $5. Now we did make some ground back on units. So you could say that when you see a lumber market depressed or normalized, you see good unit productivity and you see good overall project business. As you look forward into the front half, that same 2x4 stud was over $10. It's now $3.50. So we'll see good unit productivity and certainly an opportunity to drive more project-related business.

    正如理查德所提到的,克里斯在木材市場上經歷了非常動蕩的幾年。舉例說明我們所面臨的情況,在第四季度,在框架方面,木材的平均價格為每千人 420 美元,而 2021 年的平均價格為 886 美元。從每個人的零售美元角度來看,一個 2x4 的螺柱,這是我們在業務中的最大單位推動者之一,今年第四季度的平均零售價為 3.40 美元。去年,它超過了 5 美元。現在我們確實在單位方面取得了一些進展。所以你可以說,當你看到木材市場低迷或正常化時,你會看到良好的單位生產率,你會看到良好的整體項目業務。當您向前看前半部分時,同樣的 2x4 螺柱價格超過 10 美元。現在是 3.50 美元。因此,我們將看到良好的單位生產率,當然還有機會推動更多與項目相關的業務。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Chris, another reason we leave that sort of lumber hypothetical case outside of guidance, if that pressure does exist and come through, we would not see any material impact to earnings.

    克里斯,我們將這種木材假設案例留在指導之外的另一個原因是,如果這種壓力確實存在並通過,我們將不會對收益產生任何實質性影響。

  • Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

    Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst

  • Right. So you're not -- there could be a price headwind, but there could be some offsetting positive elasticity on that side. And sort of net-net, that plus the fact that doesn't hit bottom line, it's outside the guide.

    正確的。所以你不是——可能會出現價格逆風,但在這方面可能會有一些抵消性的正彈性。有點網絡,加上沒有觸及底線的事實,它在指南之外。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • That's correct. You got it.

    這是正確的。你說對了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim.

    我們的下一個問題來自古根海姆的史蒂文福布斯。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • I wanted to start really trying to expand on the $1 billion investment that was announced. So curious, Ted or Richard or the team, can you comment on how the investment impacts planned compensation mix for the frontline associate in 2023 on average, inclusive of how we should think about the resetting of the success sharing program?

    我想開始真正嘗試擴大已宣布的 10 億美元投資。很好奇,特德或理查德或團隊,您能否評論一下投資如何平均影響 2023 年一線員工的計劃薪酬組合,包括我們應該如何考慮成功分享計劃的重置?

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Sure. Yes, Steven, and Ann will take you through some of the detail on the rates. But just to talk about this investment, we feel just great about doing this for our associates. Customer service at The Home Depot starts with our associates, and we believe this investment is consistent with our values and is going to position us favorably in the market. We've been operating successfully in a pressured labor market. We all know labor has been tighter and rates have been higher. But just last year, we were able to hire 200,000 associates. But we believe this move is going to protect our customer experience for the near, medium and long term. We'll be able to track the most qualified candidates and retain the exceptional associate base that we already have.

    當然。是的,Steven 和 Ann 將帶您了解有關費率的一些細節。但就這項投資而言,我們為我們的員工做這件事感覺很棒。家得寶的客戶服務始於我們的員工,我們相信這項投資符合我們的價值觀,並將使我們在市場上處於有利地位。我們一直在壓力很大的勞動力市場上成功運作。我們都知道勞動力越來越緊張,利率也越來越高。但就在去年,我們僱傭了 200,000 名員工。但我們相信此舉將在近期、中期和長期保護我們的客戶體驗。我們能夠跟踪最合格的候選人並保留我們已經擁有的優秀員工基礎。

  • So we not only increased our starting wages, again Ann will go into some detail, but we increased wages for every single frontline associate. And there's a term in retail, you get compression when you raise the starting rates with tenured associates. We addressed compression in a meaningful way in this $1 billion investment. So our tenured associates saw real wage increases with this move.

    因此,我們不僅增加了起薪,安將再次詳細說明,而且我們還增加了每一位一線員工的工資。零售業有一個術語,當你提高終身合作夥伴的起薪時,你會受到壓力。在這項 10 億美元的投資中,我們以有意義的方式解決了壓縮問題。因此,我們的終身員工看到了這一舉措帶來的實際工資增長。

  • And we hope to improve retention through this. That's why we call it an investment, and it's going to improve the customer experience through a more effective associate who's just in the building longer, understands our procedures and is much more effective engaging with the customer and selling. And we harken back to our values wheel of investing in our associates and what our founders said that if we take care of our associates, they take care of the customer and everything takes care of itself. And that's what this investment is all about. But Ann, you can give some more detail, please.

    我們希望通過此提高保留率。這就是為什麼我們稱之為投資,它將通過更有效的員工來改善客戶體驗,他們在大樓裡的時間更長,了解我們的程序,並且更有效地與客戶互動和銷售。我們回顧我們投資於我們的員工的價值觀輪子,以及我們的創始人所說的,如果我們照顧好我們的員工,他們就會照顧好客戶,一切都會自然而然地發生。這就是這項投資的全部意義所在。但是 Ann,請你提供更多細節。

  • Ann-Marie Campbell - EVP of U.S. Stores & International Operations

    Ann-Marie Campbell - EVP of U.S. Stores & International Operations

  • Yes. Thank you, Ted. First of all, the investment is incremental. So you asked about success sharing, and that is still a part of our total compensation package. One of the things I spoke about around how we think about investing in our associates, wage is one component of it. We think about it not only with wage but benefits, but also the environment we create to promote our associates from within. And I think the piece that I will say, we've spoken about this before, that close to 90% of our leaders started on the floor of the store.

    是的。謝謝你,特德。首先,投資是增量的。所以你問了成功分享,這仍然是我們總薪酬方案的一部分。關於我們如何考慮投資於我們的員工,我談到了其中一件事,工資是其中的一個組成部分。我們不僅考慮工資和福利,還考慮我們創造的從內部提拔員工的環境。我想我要說的是,我們之前已經談過這個,我們將近 90% 的領導者都是從商店的地板開始的。

  • And why is that important? This $1 billion investment puts us favorably in the marketplace so we can recruit, retain and attract the best leaders because they are the future leaders for the company. So this is an incremental investment. Every single hourly associate will receive an increase. And to Ted's point, our more tenured associates who are even key, when we think about going into the spring season, also got an incremental investment, a pep in their step to continue to take market share in 2023.

    為什麼這很重要?這筆 10 億美元的投資使我們在市場上處於有利地位,因此我們可以招募、留住和吸引最優秀的領導者,因為他們是公司未來的領導者。所以這是一個增量投資。每個小時工都會得到加薪。就泰德而言,當我們考慮進入春季時,我們更資深的員工甚至是關鍵,他們也獲得了增量投資,這是他們在 2023 年繼續佔據市場份額的一步。

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • And Steven, while we don't disclose average wages, and we've always and will continue to be competitive on a market-by-market level, and we've been competitive, it's why we're able to hire the 200,000 people last year, but after this change, our starting rate in any one market, there'll be no market under $15 for a starting rate. And starting rates go much higher than that, depending on the market. And then the average wage, again, particularly with the investment in every associate, including tenured with addressing compression, we have an average wage that is well, well above the $15 .

    史蒂文,雖然我們沒有透露平均工資,但我們一直並將繼續在逐個市場層面上具有競爭力,而且我們一直具有競爭力,這就是我們能夠僱用 200,000 名員工的原因去年,但在這次變化之後,我們在任何一個市場的起步價,起步價都不會低於 15 美元。根據市場情況,起始利率遠高於此。然後是平均工資,特別是對每個員工的投資,包括解決壓縮問題的終身工資,我們的平均工資遠高於 15 美元。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • Appreciate the color. And then maybe just a quick follow-up for Richard. I think we're I think we're sort of targeting recapturing a 60% accounts payable to inventory ratio. But maybe just clarify if that's still the goal and when we should expect to achieve that this year.

    欣賞顏色。然後可能只是理查德的快速跟進。我認為我們的目標是重新獲得 60% 的應付賬款與庫存比率。但也許只是澄清這是否仍然是目標,以及我們應該在今年什麼時候實現這一目標。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, we're still -- while we know that global supply chains are improving, at least relative to where we were last year at this time, we're still pulling forward inventory. We still see extended lead times. And we think that 2023 is going to be a year of continued improvement in supply chains. So we are encouraged by the inventory movements in our business. The year-over-year inventory increase was the smallest quarterly increase of the entire year. And so we feel good about our inventory productivity. And again, we've been managing in kind of exceptional circumstances. But yes, I think over the long run, you will see us heading back to convention with respect to working capital.

    好吧,我們仍然 - 雖然我們知道全球供應鏈正在改善,至少相對於去年此時的情況,我們仍在推進庫存。我們仍然看到交貨時間延長。我們認為 2023 年將是供應鏈持續改善的一年。因此,我們對業務中的庫存變動感到鼓舞。庫存同比增幅是全年最小的季度增幅。因此,我們對庫存生產率感覺良好。再一次,我們一直在某種特殊情況下進行管理。但是,是的,我認為從長遠來看,你會看到我們在營運資金方面回到慣例。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Karen Short with Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Karen Short。

  • Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

    Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

  • The first question I just want to ask is looking at the relationship on sales growth versus EBIT growth, and I'm actually talking about this excluding the $1 billion investment, obviously, EBIT growth on a 1-year basis is decently below sales growth. So wondering just how to think about that relationship, including or excluding but going forward. And then wondering if you could just talk a little bit about what you're seeing on 1Q to date in terms of comp performance.

    我只想問的第一個問題是看銷售增長與息稅前利潤增長之間的關係,我實際上是在談論這個,不包括 10 億美元的投資,顯然,一年的息稅前利潤增長遠低於銷售增長。所以想知道如何考慮這種關係,包括或排除但繼續前進。然後想知道你是否可以談談你在 1Q 迄今為止在 comp 性能方面看到的情況。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. So it may be more helpful to talk about the construction of operating margin year-to-year just to kind of tick that out. That gives you a better sense. So in a flat comp environment, we would expect to see deleverage on a fixed cost base and, obviously, in an inflationary environment as it exists today. That deleverage is somewhere between 30 to 40 basis points.

    當然。因此,逐年討論營業利潤率的構建可能會更有幫助,只是為了解決這個問題。這給了你更好的感覺。因此,在平坦的競爭環境中,我們預計會在固定成本基礎上看到去槓桿化,而且很明顯,在當今存在的通貨膨脹環境中。該去槓桿率介於 30 到 40 個基點之間。

  • In addition, our wage investment represents about 60 basis points of movement in year-to-year wage. And then offsetting that are productivity initiatives that we expect will generate between 10 and 20 basis points of recapture of margin. And so that's how we'd walk from the 15.3% to the 14.5%. Over the long run, we always expect to grow operating income faster than sales. We've been managing in a unique environment, and certainly, our guidance implies the wage investment that we've made today.

    此外,我們的工資投資代表著每年約 60 個基點的工資變動。然後抵消我們預計將產生 10 到 20 個基點的利潤率回收的生產力舉措。這就是我們從 15.3% 走到 14.5% 的方式。從長遠來看,我們總是期望營業收入增長快於銷售額。我們一直在一個獨特的環境中進行管理,當然,我們的指導意味著我們今天所做的工資投資。

  • And the second part of your question, I'm sorry, I forgot.

    你問題的第二部分,對不起,我忘了。

  • Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

    Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

  • It was just -- could you -- any color you could provide on 1Q performance in terms of comps.

    這只是 - 你能 - 你可以在 comp 方面提供 1Q 性能的任何顏色。

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • Well, as I've shared just a few questions ago, we do anticipate that comps in the first half will be slightly lower than the second half, and our performance to date reflects that guidance.

    好吧,正如我剛才分享的幾個問題一樣,我們確實預計上半年的 comps 會略低於下半年,我們迄今為止的表現反映了這一指導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Zack Fadem with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Zack Fadem 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

  • Zachary Robert Fadem - Senior Analyst

    Zachary Robert Fadem - Senior Analyst

  • Richard, it sounds like most of the margin pressure in 2023 is expected to land at the operating expense line. And I'm curious if you could talk to the puts and takes to gross margin specifically. And is it fair to assume the inflection we saw in Q4 to slightly positive is a fair year-over-year run rate from here, just given the bulk of your supply chain investments are running their course and then freighted commodities could be a tailwind?

    理查德,聽起來 2023 年的大部分利潤率壓力預計將落在運營費用線上。我很好奇你是否可以具體談談看跌期權和毛利率。假設我們在第四季度看到的略有正向的拐點是從這裡開始的合理的同比運行率,這是否公平,只是考慮到您的大部分供應鏈投資都在運行,然後貨運商品可能會順風順水?

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • There are a lot of ins and outs. There are a lot of ins and outs in 2022. We basically delivered gross margin precisely where we anticipated to at the beginning of the year. And underlying that was a lot of product costs and transportation costs, offset by actions and within that, continued supply chain investment in our downstream or delivery operations.

    有很多來龍去脈。 2022 年有很多來龍去脈。我們基本上實現了年初預期的毛利率。而這背後是大量的產品成本和運輸成本,這些成本被行動所抵消,並且在其中,對我們下游或交付業務的持續供應鏈投資。

  • For 2023, we're targeting gross margin that's roughly flat year-over-year. Again, it will be a year of several ins and outs. Product cost inflation has decreased but does persist above historical levels. Transportation costs should actually be a tailwind. But we still have investment in our supply chain. And look, we did see some increased pressure from shrink in the back half, right? So we've got a lot of ins and outs. But roughly speaking, we're targeting essentially flat gross margin for the year.

    對於 2023 年,我們的目標是毛利率與去年同期大致持平。同樣,這將是來龍去脈的一年。產品成本通脹有所下降,但仍高於歷史水平。運輸成本實際上應該是順風。但我們仍然對我們的供應鏈進行投資。看,我們確實看到後半部分收縮帶來的壓力增加了,對吧?所以我們有很多來龍去脈。但粗略地說,我們今年的毛利率目標基本持平。

  • Zachary Robert Fadem - Senior Analyst

    Zachary Robert Fadem - Senior Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then following up on the $1 billion in wage investment. Can you talk about where this puts you competitively versus your peers? And then if for whatever reason, if your comp appears to be falling short of that flattish expectation range, would you still make the planned investments in 2023? Or could you spread them out over a couple of years?

    知道了。這很有幫助。然後跟進 10 億美元的工資投資。你能談談這讓你與同齡人相比有什麼競爭力嗎?然後,如果出於某種原因,如果你的公司似乎沒有達到那個平穩的預期範圍,你還會在 2023 年進行計劃投資嗎?或者你能把它們分散在幾年內嗎?

  • Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

    Richard V. McPhail - Executive VP & CFO

  • We're committed to our investment. That's done. With respect to how we manage our P&L, we always operate with a degree of financial flexibility. And so in any environment, we're going to assess what that environment means for us and how we should manage the P&L.

    我們致力於我們的投資。完成了。關於我們如何管理損益,我們始終以一定程度的財務靈活性運作。因此,在任何環境中,我們都將評估該環境對我們意味著什麼以及我們應該如何管理損益。

  • Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

    Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

  • Christine, we have time for one more question.

    克里斯汀,我們還有時間再問一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question will come from the line of Steven Zaccone with Citi.

    我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Steven Zaccone。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to circle back to the duration part of Michael's first question. Ted, when you think about home improvement demand seeing a moderation this year, when you take a little bit of a more medium-term outlook over the next couple of years, just since you've seen strength in the business for the last 3, what are you focused on with the health of the homeowner that may be this moderation could last couple of years in nature?

    我想回到邁克爾第一個問題的持續時間部分。泰德,當你考慮到今年家居裝修需求放緩時,當你對未來幾年的中期前景有所了解時,就在你看到過去 3 年的業務強勁時,您對房主的健康有何關注,這種緩和可能會在自然界中持續數年?

  • Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

    Edward P. Decker - Chairman, President & CEO

  • Well, as we've said, we're thrilled with the share we captured and the sales we drove. And while we don't love the moderation, you can't fight the tide, if you will, with PCE spend going back to services, people traveling and whatnot. But the 2 main things that we're going to stay focused on to take share, one, I say the consumer, the consumer rights the check for all projects, even if the Pro is doing the work. But for the consumer, we are laser-focused on delivering the best interconnected, frictionless shopping experience. I mean retail, as we know, is all about interconnection, physical world and the digital world. And we are laser-focused. Matt Carey and his team is focused on taking out all friction in that. And as we continue to delight customers with that frictionless experience, we'll look to gain more share.

    好吧,正如我們所說,我們對我們獲得的份額和我們推動的銷售感到興奮。雖然我們不喜歡節制,但如果你願意的話,你無法抗拒潮流,PCE 支出回歸服務、人們旅行等等。但是我們將繼續專注於分享的兩件主要事情,第一,我說消費者,消費者有權檢查所有項目,即使 Pro 正在做這項工作。但對於消費者而言,我們專注於提供最佳互聯、順暢的購物體驗。我的意思是,正如我們所知,零售就是關於互連、物理世界和數字世界。我們專注於激光。 Matt Carey 和他的團隊專注於消除其中的所有摩擦。隨著我們繼續以這種無摩擦的體驗取悅客戶,我們將尋求獲得更多份額。

  • And then we haven't talked much about the Pro in this call, but we are still 100% focused on building out all the capabilities that Pro ecosystem that is going to allow us to capture more share of wallet with the Pro and move up to larger plan purchases. And extremely pleased with the results we're seeing as we continue to put those capabilities in the marketplace. So that's what we're going to do to keep taking share regardless of the environment or the duration of the environment.

    然後我們在這次電話會議中沒有過多地談論 Pro,但我們仍然 100% 專注於構建 Pro 生態系統的所有功能,這將使我們能夠通過 Pro 獲得更多的錢包份額併升級到更大的計劃採購。隨著我們繼續將這些功能推向市場,我們對所看到的結果感到非常滿意。因此,無論環境或環境的持續時間如何,這就是我們要繼續分享的事情。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then the brief follow-up I had was just a question on the promotional environment. It really hasn't been that much of an issue in home improvement the last couple of years. Would you expect it to be more of a factor this year just given an overall moderation in demand?

    好的。然後我的簡短跟進只是關於促銷環境的問題。在過去的幾年裡,這在家庭裝修中確實不是什麼大問題。鑑於需求總體放緩,您是否預計今年它會成為一個更大的因素?

  • Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

    Jeffrey G. Kinnaird - EVP of Merchandising

  • Steven, it's Jeff. No, nothing specific to call out on the promotional environment as we head into the first quarter. Further into the first quarter, we're excited about the value we're ready -- we're offering our customers. And our spring sets have gone exceptionally well, and we're looking forward to the spring season. But no change that we can predict in the promotional environment.

    史蒂文,我是傑夫。不,在我們進入第一季度時,沒有什麼特別需要特別注意促銷環境的。進入第一季度後,我們對準備好的價值感到興奮——我們正在為客戶提供。我們的春季系列非常順利,我們期待著春季的到來。但是在促銷環境中我們可以預測沒有變化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ms. Janci, I would now like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

    謝謝。 Janci 女士,我現在想把發言權交還給您,請您發表結束評論。

  • Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

    Isabel Janci - VP of IR & Treasurer

  • Thank you, Christine, and thank you for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you on our first quarter earnings call in May.

    謝謝你,克里斯汀,感謝你今天加入我們。我們期待在 5 月份的第一季度財報電話會議上與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.

    女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與,祝您有美好的一天。