FormFactor Inc (FORM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to FormFactor's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On today's call are Chief Executive Officer, Mike Slessor; and Chief Financial Officer, Shai Shahar. Before we begin, Stan Finkelstein, the company's VP of Investor Relations, will remind you of some important information.

謝謝並歡迎大家參加 FormFactor 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有執行長 Mike Slessor；和財務長 Shai Shahar。在我們開始之前，公司投資者關係副總裁 Stan Finkelstein 將提醒您一些重要資訊。

Thank you. Today, the company will be discussing GAAP P&L results and some important non-GAAP results intended to supplement your understanding of the company's financials. Reconciliations to GAAP to non-GAAP measures and other financial information are available in the press release issued today by the company and on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝。今天，該公司將討論 GAAP 損益表結果和一些重要的非 GAAP 結果，旨在補充您對公司財務狀況的理解。公認會計準則與非公認會計準則措施的對帳以及其他財務資訊可在本公司今天發布的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者關係部分中找到。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Examples of such forward-looking statements include those with respect to the projections of financial and business performance, future macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions the benefits of acquisitions and investments in capacity and in new technologies, the impact of global, regional and national health crisis, including the COVID-19 pandemic, anticipated industry trends, potential disruptions in our supply chain, the impact of regulatory changes, including the recent US-China trade restrictions, the anticipated demand for products, our ability to develop, produce and sell products and the assumptions upon which such statements are based.

今天的討論包含聯邦證券法意義內的前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述的例子包括有關財務和業務業績的預測、未來宏觀經濟和地緣政治條件、產能和新技術收購和投資的好處、全球、區域和國家健康危機的影響，包括COVID-19 大流行、預期的行業趨勢、我們供應鏈的潛在中斷、監管變化的影響，包括最近的中美貿易限制、預期的產品需求、我們開發、生產和銷售產品的能力以及假設此類陳述所依據的。

These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed during this call. Information on risk factors and uncertainties is contained in our most recent filing on Form 10-K with the SEC for the fiscal year ended December 30, 2023, and in our other SEC filings, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov and in our press release issued today. Forward-looking statements are made as of today, October 30, 2024, and we assume no obligation to update them.

這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中表達的結果有重大差異。有關風險因素和不確定性的資訊包含在我們最近向 SEC 提交的截至 2023 年 12 月 30 日財年的 10-K 表格以及我們其他 SEC 文件中，這些文件可在 SEC 網站 www.sec 上查閱。政府和我們今天發布的新聞稿。前瞻性陳述截至今天，即 2024 年 10 月 30 日，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

With that, we will now turn the call over to FormFactor's CEO, Mike Slessor.

現在，我們將把電話轉交給 FormFactor 的執行長 Mike Slessor。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. Driven by growth in both of our segments, FormFactor's third-quarter revenue exceeded the outlook range we provided in July and set an all-time record. In addition, DRAM probe-card revenue set a third consecutive quarterly record and non-GAAP earnings per share was at the top end of the outlook range.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。在兩個細分市場成長的推動下，FormFactor 第三季營收超出了我們 7 月提供的展望範圍，並創下了歷史記錄。此外，DRAM 探針卡收入連續第三個季度創下紀錄，非公認會計原則每股收益處於預期範圍的上限。

In the current fourth quarter, we continue to experience record demand for DRAM probe cards with contributions from both DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory, or HBM. This, together with moderate expected systems segment growth is helping partially offset a forecasted reduction in foundry and logic probe card demand.

在當前第四季度，在 DDR5 和高頻寬記憶體 (HBM) 的推動下，我們對 DRAM 探針卡的需求繼續創紀錄。這與預期的系統細分市場適度成長一起，有助於部分抵消代工和邏輯探針卡需求的預期減少。

Entering this year, it would have been difficult to predict the magnitude of the strength in DRAM and FormFactor's ability to capitalize on this DRAM strength has been a major highlight throughout 2024. The results from our leadership position and significant market share in DRAM, which is one of the core tenets of our diversification strategy, providing us broad exposure to industry growth trends like generative AI.

進入今年，很難預測 DRAM 的強勢程度，而 FormFactor 能否充分利用 DRAM 的強勢，已成為整個 2024 年的一大亮點。我們在 DRAM 領域的領導地位和龐大市場份額是我們多元化策略的核心原則之一，這使我們能夠廣泛接觸生成式人工智慧等產業成長趨勢。

FormFactor's diversification strategy features a broad lab-to-fab product portfolio across Foundry and Logic, DRAM and Flash probe cards, together with our system segment products. The strategy differentiates us from our direct competitors. It makes it possible for us to compete for business across diverse demand pools at all major customers, which in turn produced relatively stable results during last year's downturn and the overall top line growth we're delivering this year.

FormFactor 的多元化策略以廣泛的實驗室到晶圓廠產品組合為特色，涵蓋代工和邏輯、DRAM 和快閃探針卡，以及我們的系統細分產品。該策略使我們有別於我們的直接競爭對手。這使我們能夠在所有主要客戶的不同需求池中競爭業務，從而在去年的經濟低迷時期產生相對穩定的業績，並在今年實現整體營收成長。

These record levels of DRAM revenue, however, do produce a challenging product mix, and it's this DRAM rich mix that is largely responsible for the third and fourth quarter gross margins below our target model gross margin of 47% and $850 million of annual revenue. As we've demonstrated in the past, a more balanced product mix with stronger foundry and logic probe-card demand produces gross margins approaching and in some cases, exceeding the levels of our target model.

然而，這些創紀錄的DRAM 收入水準確實產生了具有挑戰性的產品組合，而正是這種豐富的DRAM 組合，在很大程度上導致了第三季和第四季的毛利率低於我們47 % 的目標模型毛利率和8.5 億美元的年收入。正如我們過去所證明的那樣，更平衡的產品組合以及更強勁的代工和邏輯探針卡需求所產生的毛利率接近甚至在某些情況下超過我們的目標模型水平。

We expect to deliver stronger gross margins when growth returns to the consumer-driven high unit volume end markets that drive foundry and logic probe card spending like mobile handsets and client PCs. Turning now to market and segment level details. As I noted, the third quarter strength in DDR5, which we anticipated, produced another record-setting quarter of DRAM probe-card revenue.

當消費者驅動的大批量終端市場恢復成長時，我們預計將帶來更高的毛利率，從而推動手機和客戶端 PC 等代工和邏輯探針卡支出。現在轉向市場和細分市場層面的細節。正如我所指出的，DDR5 第三季的強勢正如我們預期的那樣，創造了 DRAM 探針卡收入另一個創紀錄的季度。

HBM revenue declined from the all-time high levels of the second quarter as we experienced the expected customer digestion following record shipments of probe cards for HBM3 and HBM3E production designs in the two previous quarters. In the current fourth quarter, we expect further growth in DRAM probe-card revenue.

HBM 收入從第二季度的歷史最高水平有所下降，因為在前兩個季度 HBM3 和 HBM3E 生產設計的探針卡出貨量創紀錄之後，我們經歷了預期的客戶消化。在目前第四季度，我們預計 DRAM 探針卡收入將進一步成長。

We anticipate continued DDR5 strength along with sequential growth in HBM to roughly half of our DRAM shipments with several initial HBM4 designs all across multiple DRAM customers. The beginning of HBM4 activity is significant as it puts us in a strong position as our customers start pilot production of this next major road map innovation in the high-performance memory that enables generative AI.

我們預計 DDR5 將持續強勁，HBM 將持續成長，約占我們 DRAM 出貨量的一半，且多位 DRAM 客戶都有多個初始 HBM4 設計。HBM4 活動的開始具有重要意義，因為它使我們處於有利地位，因為我們的客戶開始試生產高效能記憶體中的下一個主要路線圖創新，以實現生成人工智慧。

As we've discussed in the past, the advanced packaging processes used to construct HBM chips are powering FormFactor's current results and future opportunity. Each HBM chip, whether it's HBM3, 3E or 4 is a stack of individual DRAM die assembled with advanced packaging processes. The disaggregation of a chip into subcomponent chiplets or tiles increases both test intensity and test complexity compared to an equivalent monolithic chip.

正如我們過去所討論的，用於構建 HBM 晶片的先進封裝製程正在為 FormFactor 目前的成果和未來的機會提供動力。每個 HBM 晶片，無論是 HBM3、3E 或 4，都是採用先進封裝製程組裝的單一 DRAM 晶片的堆疊。與同等的單晶片相比，將晶片分解為子組件小晶片或塊會增加測試強度和測試複雜性。

The increase in test intensity is driven by the need for our customers to probe and test each component chiplet prior to stacking and then to probe and test the multi chiplet stack at various points during the assembly process.

測試強度的增加是由於我們的客戶需要在堆疊之前探測和測試每個組件小晶片，然後在組裝過程中的不同點探測和測試多小晶片堆疊。

The increase in test complexity is driven by HBM performance requirements that are significantly more advanced than for standard unstacked DRAM products, involving higher test speeds and more challenging thermal scaling specifications. As the industry moves from HBM3 to HBM4, both layer counts and performance requirements, such as operating frequencies and power densities are increasing dramatically.

測試複雜性的增加是由 HBM 性能要求驅動的，這些要求比標準非堆疊 DRAM 產品要先進得多，涉及更高的測試速度和更具挑戰性的熱擴展規範。隨著產業從 HBM3 轉向 HBM4，層數和性能要求（例如工作頻率和功率密度）都在急劇增加。

For example, our customers' road maps feature HBM4 products with stacks up to 16 high, double that of HBM3. Increase in layer count to 16 high stacks increases the number of probe cards required for good chip out since each component chip within the stack must be tested and verified prior to stacking. Similarly, the increase in clock speeds and power densities increases the performance requirements for the probe card necessitating higher test frequencies and more challenging thermal and power specifications.

例如，我們客戶的路線圖採用 HBM4 產品，堆疊高度高達 16 個，是 HBM3 的兩倍。將層數增加到 16 個高堆疊會增加良好晶片輸出所需的探針卡數量，因為堆疊內的每個組件晶片都必須在堆疊之前進行測試和驗證。同樣，時脈速度和功率密度的增加提高了對探針卡的性能要求，需要更高的測試頻率和更具挑戰性的熱和功率規格。

As we've seen with HBM3 and HBM3E in 2024, our differentiated ability to meet challenging performance requirements drives both market share and profitability gains, and we expect to benefit from the same dynamics as HBM4 reaches volume production next year. Shifting to the foundry and logic probe-card market.

正如我們在2024 年透過HBM3 和HBM3E 所看到的那樣，我們滿足具有挑戰性的性能要求的差異化能力推動了市場份額和盈利能力的增長，我們預計明年HBM4 實現批量生產時也將受益於同樣的動力。轉向代工和邏輯探針卡市場。

Here, as expected, the third quarter was similar to the second quarter, where the ramp of new mobile application processor designs together with client PC and server microprocessor designs produced steady overall revenue. In the current fourth quarter, we expect a reduction in foundry and logic demand from the levels of the second and third quarter as high unit volume end markets in which FormFactor has a strong competitive position, like mobile handsets and client PCs remain weak.

正如預期的那樣，第三季與第二季類似，新的行動應用處理器設計以及客戶端 PC 和伺服器微處理器設計的增加產生了穩定的整體收入。在目前第四季度，我們預計代工和邏輯需求將比第二季和第三季的水平下降，因為 FormFactor 具有強大競爭地位的高單位產量終端市場（如手機和客戶端 PC）仍然疲軟。

It's our strategic priority to expand and diversify FormFactor's market position in foundry and logic, both through new customer qualifications in client PC and server applications and through new products that will improve our competitive position in high-performance compute GPU applications. This will reduce our dependence on mobile and client PC by growing high-performance compute to achieve a more balanced opportunity profile with broader exposure to hyperscale generative AI investment, similar to the strategy we're executing in DRAM for creating HBM led exposure to AI.

我們的策略重點是擴大FormFactor 在代工和邏輯領域的市場地位並使其多元化，既透過客戶端PC 和伺服器應用程式中的新客戶資格，又透過新產品來提高我們在高效能運算GPU 應用程序中的競爭地位。這將透過發展高效能運算來減少我們對行動和客戶端PC 的依賴，以實現更平衡的機會狀況，並更廣泛地接觸超大規模生成式AI 投資，類似於我們在DRAM 中執行的用於創建HBM 主導的AI 投資的策略。

In the systems segment, we delivered the expected sequential increase in third quarter revenue as customers continue to engage us to solve the most complex electrooptical test and measurement challenges in areas like quantum computing and silicon photonics.

在系統領域，隨著客戶繼續讓我們解決量子計算和矽光子學等領域最複雜的光電測試和測量挑戰，我們實現了第三季度收入的預期環比增長。

Co-packaged optics using silicon photonics is an exciting opportunity for FormFactor as we collaborate with leading customers in data center applications that utilize our turnkey measurement systems built on our CM300 and Summit 200 engineering probers together with our proprietary ferrous optical probes. We're also extending our unique electrooptical portfolio by partnering with other suppliers on the equipment needed for high-volume production.

使用矽光子技術的共同封裝光學元件對於FormFactor 來說是一個令人興奮的機會，因為我們與資料中心應用領域的領先客戶合作，這些應用利用我們基於CM300 和Summit 200 工程探針以及我們專有的鐵質光學探針建構的交鑰匙測量系統。我們也透過與其他供應商合作開發大量生產所需的設備來擴展我們獨特的光電產品組合。

These partnerships are designed to ensure that as co-packaged optics matures and moves to high-volume production in the coming years, FormFactor's leadership positions in combined electrical and optical tests will provide a new growth vector for both our systems and probe card businesses.

這些合作夥伴關係旨在確保隨著共同封裝光學元件的成熟並在未來幾年轉向大批量生產，FormFactor 在組合電氣和光學測試方面的領導地位將為我們的系統和探針卡業務提供新的成長載體。

Finally, as validation of FormFactor's technological and market leadership, I will be delivering one of four invited keynote addresses along with executive from Synopsys, Meta and AMD at next week's IEEE International Test Conference.

最後，為了驗證 FormFactor 的技術和市場領先地位，我將在下週的 IEEE 國際測試大會上與 Synopsys、Meta 和 AMD 的高層一起發表四場受邀主題演講之一。

In the presentation titled, From the Shadows to the Spotlight, probe's role in enabling electronics industry innovation, I'll explore how wafer test and probing are a key enabler of economically viable semiconductor manufacturing at the leading edge, especially for advanced packaging architectures that rely on 2.5D and 3D stacking of chiplets.

在題為「從陰影到聚光燈，探針在實現電子產業創新中的作用」的演講中，我將探討晶圓測試和探測如何成為經濟上可行的前沿半導體製造的關鍵推動者，特別是對於依賴於關於小晶片的 2.5D 和 3D 堆疊。

As we've discussed, these teams are moving FormFactor's markets and business today and underlie our long-term opportunity. In closing, we're proud of FormFactor's all-time revenue record set in the third quarter and are excited about the future as adoption of advanced packaging drives increased demand across FormFactor's entire lab to fab product portfolio.

正如我們所討論的，這些團隊正在推動 FormFactor 的市場和業務發展，並為我們的長期機會奠定了基礎。最後，我們對 FormFactor 在第三季創下的歷史收入記錄感到自豪，並對未來感到興奮，因為先進封裝的採用推動了 FormFactor 整個實驗室到晶圓廠產品組合的需求增加。

We continue to focus on investing in differentiated products and capabilities to drive market share and profitability gains and remain confident that when the foundry and logic market recovers that we'll achieve and then surpass our target model that delivers $2 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $850 million of revenue.

我們繼續專注於差異化產品和能力的投資，以推動市場份額和盈利能力的增長，並堅信，當代工和邏輯市場復甦時，我們將實現並超越我們的目標模型，即實現每股2 美元的非GAAP 收益收入達 8.5 億美元。

Shai, over to you.

謝伊，交給你了。

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon. As you saw in our press release and as Mike mentioned, Q3 revenues were $207.9 million, $2.9 million above the high end of our outlook range and an all-time company record. Non-GAAP gross margin of 42.2% was 0.8 percentage points below the midpoint of the range. These, together with operating expenses slightly lower than the midpoint of the outlook resulted in non-GAAP EPS at the top end of the range. Third quarter revenues increased 5.3% from the second quarter and increased to 21.2% year over year.

謝謝你，麥克，下午好。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的以及麥克提到的，第三季度收入為 2.079 億美元，比我們的展望範圍的上限高出 290 萬美元，也是公司的歷史記錄。非 GAAP 毛利率為 42.2%，比該範圍的中點低 0.8 個百分點。這些，再加上略低於預期中點的營運費用，導致非公認會計原則每股收益處於該範圍的上限。第三季營收較第二季成長5.3%，較去年同期成長21.2%。

The upside versus the midpoint of our outlook range was due to higher revenues in both our Probe Card segment as well as the Systems segment. Probe card segment revenues were $172.2 million in the third quarter, an increase of $5.4 million or 3.2% from the second quarter. The increase was driven by both higher foundry and logic and DRAM revenue.

我們的展望範圍的上行是由於我們的探針卡部門和系統部門的收入增加。第三季探針卡部門營收為1.722億美元，比第二季增加540萬美元，即3.2%。這一成長是由更高的代工和邏輯以及 DRAM 收入推動的。

The aystems segment revenues were $35.7 million in Q3, a $5.1 million increase from the second quarter and comprised 17.2% of total company revenues up from 15.5% in the second quarter. Within the probe card segment, Q3 Foundry and Logic revenues were $107 million, a 3.7% increase from the second quarter.

第三季 aystems 部門營收為 3,570 萬美元，比第二季增加 510 萬美元，占公司總營收的 17.2%，高於第二季的 15.5%。在探針卡領域，第三季代工和邏輯收入為 1.07 億美元，比第二季成長 3.7%。

Foundry and Logic revenues decreased to 51.7% of total company revenues compared to 52.5% in the second quarter. DRAM revenues were a record $60.2 million in Q3, $2.1 million or 3.7% higher than the previous quarter -- sorry, higher than the previous record set in the second quarter, and decreased to 28.9% of total quarterly revenues as compared to 29.4% in the second quarter.

代工和邏輯收入占公司總收入的比例從第二季的 52.5% 下降至 51.7%。第三季DRAM 營收達到創紀錄的6,020 萬美元，比上一季高出210 萬美元，即3.7%——抱歉，高於第二季創下的上一個紀錄，佔季總收入的比例從2019 年的29.4% 下降至28.9%。

Within DRAM, HBM revenue declined as expected from the record $43 million in Q2 to $29 million in Q3. Flash revenues of $4.5 million in Q3 were down $0.5 million from the second quarter and were 2.2% of total revenues in Q3, as compared to 2.6% in Q2. GAAP gross margin for the third quarter was 40.7% as compared to 44% in Q2.

在 DRAM 領域，HBM 收入如預期下降，從第二季創紀錄的 4,300 萬美元下降至第三季的 2,900 萬美元。第三季快閃記憶體收入為 450 萬美元，比第二季減少 50 萬美元，佔第三季總營收的 2.2%，而第二季為 2.6%。第三季 GAAP 毛利率為 40.7%，第二季為 44%。

Cost of revenues included $3 million of GAAP to non-GAAP reconciling items, which we outlined in our press release issued today and in the reconciliation table available in the Investor Relations section of our website. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin for the third quarter was 42.2%, 3.1 percentage points lower than the 45.3% non-GAAP gross margin in Q2 and 0.8 percentage points below the midpoint of our outlook range. The decrease as compared to Q2 at higher revenue levels, was, as Mike indicated, mostly the result of a less favorable product mix in both segments.

收入成本包括 300 萬美元的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節項目，我們在今天發布的新聞稿以及我們網站投資者關係部分提供的調整表中對此進行了概述。以非 GAAP 基準計算，第三季毛利率為 42.2%，比第二季 45.3% 的非 GAAP 毛利率低 3.1 個百分點，比我們展望範圍的中位數低 0.8 個百分點。正如麥克指出的那樣，與第二季度相比，收入水平較高時的下降主要是由於這兩個細分市場的產品組合不太有利。

As compared to the midpoint of our outlook range, gross margin was lower mostly due to unexpected quality-related costs in our systems segment. Our probe card segment gross margin was 42.3% in the third quarter, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points compared to 45.1% in Q2.

與我們的展望範圍的中點相比，毛利率較低，主要是由於我們的系統部門意外的品質相關成本。第三季探針卡業務毛利率為42.3%，較第二季的45.1%下降2.8個百分點。

Our Q3 systems segment gross margin was 41.5%, a decrease of 4.7 percentage points compared to 46.2% gross margin in the second quarter. Our GAAP operating expenses were $66.9 million for the third quarter as compared to $69.4 million in the second quarter. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the third quarter were $59.3 million or 28.5% of revenues as compared with $60.9 million or 30.8% of revenues in Q2. The $1.5 million decrease relates mainly to lower performance-based compensation.

第三季系統業務毛利率為 41.5%，較第二季 46.2% 的毛利率下降 4.7 個百分點。第三季我們的 GAAP 營運費用為 6,690 萬美元，而第二季為 6,940 萬美元。第三季非 GAAP 營運費用為 5,930 萬美元，佔營收的 28.5%，而第二季為 6,090 萬美元，佔營收的 30.8%。減少 150 萬美元主要是由於績效為基礎的薪酬降低。

Company noncash expenses for the third quarter included $8.9 million for stock-based compensation, $1.3 million lower than in Q2 due to grant for features, $0.6 million for the amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, similar to Q2 and depreciation of $7.6 million, slightly higher than in the second quarter.

第三季公司非現金支出包括890 萬美元的股票薪酬，由於功能授予而比第二季減少130 萬美元，用於收購相關無形資產攤銷的60 萬美元，與第二季類似，折舊為760萬美元，略高比第二季。

GAAP operating income was $17.9 million for Q3, similar to the GAAP operating income of $17.8 million in Q2. Non-GAAP operating income for the third quarter was $28.3 million compared with $28.5 million in the second quarter, a decrease of $0.2 million or 0.7%. The increase in revenue and lower operating expenses were offset by the decrease in gross margins. GAAP net income for the third quarter was $18.7 million or $0.24 per fully diluted share compared with a GAAP net income of $19.4 million or $0.25 per fully diluted share in the previous quarter. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for the third quarter was 13.4%, 2 percentage points lower than 15.4% in the second quarter.

第三季 GAAP 營業收入為 1,790 萬美元，與第二季 1,780 萬美元的 GAAP 營業收入相似。第三季非 GAAP 營業收入為 2,830 萬美元，較第二季的 2,850 萬美元減少 20 萬美元，即 0.7%。收入的增加和營運費用的下降被毛利率的下降所抵消。第三季 GAAP 淨利為 1,870 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.24 美元，而上一季 GAAP 淨利潤為 1,940 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.25 美元。第三季非公認會計原則有效稅率為13.4%，比第二季的15.4%低2個百分點。

We continue to expect our annual non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 14% and 18%. Third quarter non-GAAP net income was $27.2 million or $0.35 per fully diluted share, similar to Q2 and at the top end of our outlook range.

我們仍然預計我們的年度非 GAAP 有效稅率將在 14% 至 18% 之間。第三季非 GAAP 淨利潤為 2,720 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.35 美元，與第二季類似，處於我們展望範圍的上限。

As Mike said, we remain committed to achieving our target model, which produces $2 of non-GAAP earnings per share at $850 million of revenue with 47% gross margin and 22% operating margin. While we expect fluctuations quarter-over-quarter chiefly due to product mix changes, achieving the 47% gross margin requires a more favorable product mix, mainly a larger contribution from our higher-margin foundry and logic market.

正如麥克所說，我們仍然致力於實現我們的目標模型，即產生 2 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益，8.5 億美元的收入，47% 的毛利率和 22% 的營業利潤率。雖然我們預期季度環比波動主要是由於產品組合的變化，但要實現 47% 的毛利率需要更有利的產品組合，這主要來自我們利潤率較高的代工和邏輯市場的更大貢獻。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow. At quarter end, total cash and investments were $360 million, a decrease of $5 million in Q2. We generated free cash flow of $20 million in the third quarter compared to $14.2 million in Q2. The main reasons for the increase in free cash flow was higher operating cash flows primarily driven by greater noncash expenses of $2.4 million and lower outflows for our working capital of $3.1 million, partially offset by higher capital expenditures of $0.5 million.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。截至季末，現金和投資總額為 3.6 億美元，比第二季減少 500 萬美元。第三季我們產生了 2000 萬美元的自由現金流，而第二季為 1,420 萬美元。自由現金流增加的主要原因是營運現金流增加，這主要是由於 240 萬美元的非現金支出增加和 310 萬美元的營運資本流出減少，部分被 50 萬美元的資本支出增加所抵銷。

We invested $8.9 million in capital expenditures during the third quarter compared to $8.4 million in Q2. There is no change in our expected CapEx range for 2024 of $35 million to $45 million.

第三季我們投資了 890 萬美元的資本支出，而第二季為 840 萬美元。我們預計 2024 年的資本支出範圍為 3,500 萬美元至 4,500 萬美元，沒有變動。

And with three quarters behind us, we now estimate to be closer to the midpoint of this range. At the end of the third quarter, we had one term loan remaining with a balance totaling $14 million. Regarding stock buyback, during the third quarter, we used $16.9 million to buy back shares under the $75 million two-year buyback program that was approved in Q4 2023. At quarter end, $36.6 million remained available under that authorization.

現在已經落後了四分之三，我們現在估計已經接近該範圍的中點。截至第三季末，我們尚有一筆定期貸款，餘額總計 1,400 萬美元。關於股票回購，在第三季度，我們根據 2023 年第四季度批准的 7,500 萬美元的兩年期回購計畫使用了 1,690 萬美元回購股票。截至季末，該授權下仍有 3,660 萬美元可用。

As a reminder, the main purpose of the share repurchase program is to offset dilution from stock-based compensation. Turning to the fourth quarter non-GAAP outlook. We expect Q4 revenues of $190 million, plus or minus $5 million, with a slight increase in DRAM and Systems revenues more than offset by a decrease in foundry and logic. The lower revenues as compared to Q3 are expected to result in a non-GAAP gross margin of 41%, plus or minus 150 basis points.

需要提醒的是，股票回購計畫的主要目的是抵銷股票薪酬的稀釋效果。轉向第四季非公認會計準則展望。我們預計第四季度營收為 1.9 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元，其中 DRAM 和系統收入的小幅成長將被代工和邏輯業務的下降所抵消。與第三季相比，收入較低，非 GAAP 毛利率為 41%，上下浮動 150 個基點。

At the midpoint of these outlook ranges, we expect Q4 operating expenses to decrease to $56 million, plus or minus $2 million, $3 million lower than Q3, mainly due to lower performance-based compensation. Non-GAAP earnings per fully diluted share for Q4 is expected to be $0.29 plus or minus $0.04. A reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP Q4 outlook is available on the Investor Relations section of our website and in our press release issued today.

在這些展望範圍的中點，我們預計第四季度營運費用將降至 5,600 萬美元，正負 200 萬美元，比第三季低 300 萬美元，這主要是由於基於績效的薪酬較低。第四季完全攤薄後的非公認會計原則每股收益預計為 0.29 美元上下 0.04 美元。我們網站的投資者關係部分和今天發布的新聞稿中提供了我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 第四季度展望的調整表。

With that, let's open the call for questions. Operator?

接下來，讓我們開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

（操作員說明）Krish Sankar，TD Cowen。

Mike or Shai, I had two of them. First one, just curious, your large US customer at about 17% of revenues in September is well telegraphed about their weakness. I'm kind of curious, have you started seeing weakness there in your December guide? Or do you think it's a calendar '25 event? And how to reconcile their weakness to what you would expect from them in calendar '25 in terms of revenues?

麥克或謝伊，我有兩個。第一個，只是好奇，你的美國大客戶在 9 月的收入中佔了約 17%，這充分錶明了他們的弱點。我有點好奇，您是否開始在 12 月指南中發現弱點？或者您認為這是 25 年曆上的活動嗎？以及如何將他們的弱點與您對他們在 25 年日曆上的收入的期望相協調？

Yes. I mean calendar '25, remember, our lead times are pretty short, well within a quarter and certainly for the high-volume foundry and logic businesses well within a quarter. So our visibility doesn't really extend into '25.

是的。我的意思是日曆'25，請記住，我們的交貨時間非常短，在一個季度之內，對於大批量代工和邏輯業務來說當然也在一個季度之內。所以我們的知名度並沒有真正延伸到 25 年。

Having said that, the overall foundry and logic market, we are seeing weakness across various aspects of it. As I said, in the prepared remarks, client PC, mobile handset are all, when I compare our fourth quarter outlook to our third quarter actual results, we're seeing softness in those two end markets.

話雖如此，就整個代工和邏輯市場而言，我們看到了其各個方面的疲軟。正如我所說，在準備好的評論中，客戶端 PC、手機都是，當我將第四季度的前景與第三季度的實際結果進行比較時，我們看到這兩個終端市場的疲軟。

That's one of the reasons why it's so important for us to qualify in some of these other AI-driven applications like GPUs to make sure that we're diversifying our Foundry and Logic business, which is our largest business and is expected to grow significantly. We got to make sure we got the right market footprint there. But right now, foundry and logic outlook for '25 don't have significant visibility there. But in the fourth quarter, seeing pockets of sequential reduction in both mobile and PC.

這就是為什麼我們在 GPU 等其他一些人工智慧驅動的應用程式中獲得資格如此重要的原因之一，以確保我們的鑄造和邏輯業務多樣化，這是我們最大的業務，預計將顯著增長。我們必須確保我們在那裡獲得了正確的市場足跡。但目前，25 年的代工和邏輯前景還沒有明顯的可見度。但在第四季度，行動和個人電腦領域都出現了環比下降。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then I just wanted to touch base on the HBM side. It looks like HBM is probably going to grow again after one quarter digestion in September.

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。然後我只想談談 HBM 方面的基礎。看來HBM在9月消化了一個季度後，很可能會再次成長。

A, is the true? And B, what caused the digestion? And obviously, there's a lot of optimism on HBM revenue growth for the industry into next year. Do you worry about, again, another pocket or another quarter where you might see a digestion. Just kind of curious what caused it in September and what is the likelihood it will not happen again next year?

答，是真的嗎？B，是什麼造成了消化？顯然，人們對明年該行業的 HBM 收入成長持樂觀態度。你是否再次擔心另一個口袋或另一個四分之一的地方你可能會看到消化。只是有點好奇九月發生的原因是什麼以及明年不會再發生的可能性有多大？

Yes. So if we track HBM through the quarters of 2024, Second quarter, very strong results. We did convey to you that we expected some digestion in the third quarter. That happened. That can often be the case.

是的。因此，如果我們追蹤 HBM 整個 2024 年的季度，第二季度的結果非常強勁。我們確實向您傳達了我們預計第三季會有所消化。那件事發生了。情況常常如此。

Remember, our HBM revenue and overall market share really concentrated with the leading provider of HBM to the industry. As we move into the fourth quarter, the growth is driven by a couple of components, the sequential growth off of Q3.

請記住，我們的 HBM 收入和整體市場份額實際上集中在行業領先的 HBM 提供者。當我們進入第四季度時，成長是由幾個因素推動的，即第三季的環比成長。

And yes, there is sequential growth expected in HBM off of Q3. Some of it is the resumption of spending by the leading HBM provider, but we're also beginning to see some diversification and activity at one of the other DRAM manufacturers, one of our other DRAM customers as they begin to build their DRAM market share.

是的，預計 HBM 從第三季開始將較上季成長。其中一部分原因是領先的HBM 供應商恢復了支出，但我們也開始看到其他DRAM 製造商之一（我們的其他DRAM 客戶之一）的一些多元化和活動，因為他們開始建立自己的DRAM 市場份額。

Charles Shi, Needham & Company.

查爾斯‧史（Charles Shi），李約瑟公司。

Mike, I want to ask maybe a little bit higher level question about HBM, plus just a few days ago, Teradyne, it mentioned about -- well, they talked about the next year, they think the tester TAM is flat to down next year. But since you're not quite -- your products are complement to testers, but it's not the same capital goods as testers.

麥克，我想問一個關於 HBM 的更高級別的問題，就在幾天前，泰瑞達提到了——嗯，他們談到了明年，他們認為測試儀 TAM 明年會持平甚至下降。但由於你不完全是——你的產品是測試人員的補充，但它與測試人員不是相同的資本貨物。

Are you -- how do we reconcile, let's say, testers can does go to flat to down next year? And how do we think that -- why would we think that maybe probe card can still grow next year? And maybe related to this, I think this is -- you spent some time, talk about the technical details about HBM3, 3E and 4 that transition, how that does to probe card.

您是 - 我們如何協調，比方說，測試人員明年是否可以從持平轉為下降？我們如何看待這一點——為什麼我們會認為明年探針卡仍然可以成長？也許與此相關，我認為這是——您花了一些時間，談論有關 HBM3、3E 和 4 過渡的技術細節，以及這對探針卡有何影響。

Can you kind of help us understand whether HBM -- transition to HBM 4, does that -- does that help with the overall probe card TAM growth because it looks like it may not really help testers because testers are quite agnostic. Hopefully, you can touch these points as well.

您能否幫助我們了解 HBM（過渡到 HBM 4）是否有助於整體探針卡 TAM 的成長，因為看起來它可能無法真正幫助測試人員，因為測試人員非常不可知。希望您也能觸及這些要點。

Yes. So you alluded to it in the way you asked the question, Charles. Remember, probe cards are a consumable that's specific to each customer chip design or each customer mask set. So if we take the HBM example, as a customer moves not just from HBM3 to 3E to 4, that certainly drives demand for new probe cards. But even inside those generations of HBM, there are multiple flavors of HBM.

是的。所以你在問問題的方式中暗示了這一點，查爾斯。請記住，探針卡是特定於每個客戶晶片設計或每個客戶掩模組的消耗品。因此，如果我們以 HBM 為例，隨著客戶不僅從 HBM3 轉向 3E 再到 4，這肯定會推動對新探針卡的需求。但即使在這些代 HBM 中，HBM 也有多種風格。

And so you can think about three or four major HBM3 designs, all requiring different probe cards. Now all of those chips are going to end up being tested by the same tester. The purpose of a probe card is to customize the tester, so it can test these different chips. And so that's how you reconcile the different growth cycles between probe cards and ATE or testers. We've seen this before in the past, right?

因此，您可以考慮三到四種主要的 HBM3 設計，它們都需要不同的探針卡。現在所有這些晶片最終都將由同一台測試儀進行測試。探針卡的目的是定制測試儀，因此它可以測試這些不同的晶片。這就是協調探針卡和 ATE 或測試儀之間不同生長週期的方法。我們過去見過這種情況，對吧？

In foundry and logic, there's been large dugs of tester investment that then cool off and we see some strong probe card activity as customers release new chip designs to be able to utilize those testers. So often through history in both foundry and logic and memory, we've seen that decouple it.

在代工和邏輯領域，測試儀投資大量投入，然後冷卻下來，隨著客戶發布新的晶片設計以能夠利用這些測試儀，我們看到一些強勁的探針卡活動。透過鑄造、邏輯和記憶體的歷史，我們經常看到它的解耦。

As to the transition from HBM3 to 3E to 4, we do this -- view this as being helpful to FormFactor, not just because of an increase in the available market. Remember, almost certainly when we go from HBM3 to 4, the number of die increases in the stack. I mentioned in the prepared remarks, going from 8 to 16, that's all other things being equal, going to require more probe cards.

至於從 HBM3 到 3E 再到 4 的過渡，我們這樣做——認為這對 FormFactor 有幫助，而不僅僅是因為可用市場的增加。請記住，幾乎可以肯定，當我們從 HBM3 變為 4 時，堆疊中的晶片數量會增加。我在準備好的評論中提到，從 8 個增加到 16 個，在其他條件相同的情況下，將需要更多的探針卡。

But I think the other thing that's interesting is -- and that's what we generally refer to as test intensity. I think the other thing is when you look at customer road maps, as they go from three to four there's some significant increases in things like speed and power density, which drive a more capable probe card, which typically we're able to get a higher value, a higher ASP for. So I hope that addresses the two elements of the question. But remember, probe cards are a device-specific consumable, different bicycles than capital equipment like ATE.

但我認為另一件有趣的事情是——這就是我們通常所說的測試強度。我認為另一件事是，當你查看客戶路線圖時，當它們從三個增加到四個時，速度和功率密度等方面會有一些顯著增加，這會驅動功能更強大的探針卡，通常我們能夠獲得價值越高，ASP就越高。所以我希望這能解決問題的兩個要素。但請記住，探針卡是一種特定於設備的消耗品，與 ATE 等資本設備不同。

Okay. Maybe I just want to ask another question, a little bit of clarification. I look at your geographical breakdown for the quarter. It looks like the revenue from China ticked up a little in Q3, Mike, if you could provide some insights into what's behind that number? Because we do understand that your China revenue can split between multinational and the domestic China.

好的。也許我只是想問另一個問題，稍微澄清一下。我查看了本季的地理分佈。看起來來自中國的收入在第三季度略有上升，麥克，您能否提供一些關於該數字背後原因的見解？因為我們確實了解您的中國收入可以在跨國公司和中國國內之間分配。

What do you see there?

你在那裡看到什麼？

Yes. So it's an interesting question. Obviously, China is on lots of people in the industry's minds right now. We've been pretty clear that we think that our domestic China revenue, which still represents a significant fraction is going to go to 0 over time, some time frame because of the geopolitical issues, because of our presence as a US supplier governed by export controls from the Department of Commerce.

是的。這是一個有趣的問題。顯然，現在很多業內人士都在關注中國。我們已經非常明確地表示，我們認為，由於地緣政治問題，我們作為受出口管制的美國供應商，隨著時間的推移，我們在中國的國內收入（仍佔很大一部分）將降至零。商務部控制。

Having said that, we did see a tick up in domestic China revenue, as you noted, in the third quarter. It's in DRAM. And I think I'd characterize it probably is almost a last time buy with one of our leading DRAM customers in China. We don't view it as sustainable largely because of the geopolitical environment. To remind you, that's one of the reasons why we divested our China operations earlier this year.

話雖如此，正如您所指出的，我們確實看到第三季中國國內收入有所上升。它在 DRAM 中。我認為這可能幾乎是我們中國領先 DRAM 客戶之一的最後一次購買。我們認為它不可持續，主要是由於地緣政治環境。提醒您，這就是我們今年稍早剝離中國業務的原因之一。

We're still able to do business there, but doing it through the company that bought our China operations as a distributor. So I'd classify us as being opportunistic. Here, we had an opportunity in the third quarter to go win some business, but I wouldn't model that through 2025.

我們仍然能夠在那裡做生意，但是是透過作為經銷商購買我們中國業務的公司來做的。所以我將我們歸類為機會主義者。在這裡，我們有機會在第三季贏得一些業務，但我不會在 2025 年之前建立這種模型。

Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

克雷格·艾利斯，B.萊利證券。

Guys, congratulations on some of the record set in the quarter. Mike, I wanted to start just by following up the point that I thought you made well in responding to Charles' question around really intensity and complexity that are going up and just see if I could get you to reflect a little bit and comment on calendar 2025 for high-bandwidth memory. And the question is really this. As you look at the drivers that are fueling high-bandwidth memory strength, the increased number of chips that are required for every GPU that's shipping as we go to more stacks and higher stacks. Are you seeing any signs that customers are able to get yield dynamics to a level where probe card intensity would decrease?

夥計們，祝賀本季創下的一些記錄。麥克，我想先跟進一下我認為你在回答查爾斯關於正在上升的真正強度和復雜性的問題時做得很好的一點，看看我是否能讓你反思一下並對日曆發表評論2025 年出現高頻寬記憶體。問題確實是這樣的。當您查看推動高頻寬記憶體強度的驅動程式時，隨著我們採用更多堆疊和更高堆疊，每個正在出貨的 GPU 所需的晶片數量都會增加。您是否看到任何跡象顯示客戶能夠將良率動態提高到探針卡強度會降低的程度？

Are we just running too fast from 3 to E to 4, et cetera, to get that kind of yield improvement?

我們是否只是從 3 到 E 到 4 等運行速度太快，無法獲得這種良率提升？

Yes. So it's a great question, Craig, because obviously, one of the things that's driving the very high test intensity with HBM is fairly low yields. The chiplets die themselves are pretty standard DRAM die. So they're not the yield issue. It's the complexity of the advanced packaging and assembly and stacking of those die that's causing the issues.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，Craig，因為顯然，推動 HBM 測試強度非常高的原因之一是產量相當低。小晶片晶片本身是非常標準的 DRAM 晶片。所以它們不是產量問題。造成這些問題的是這些晶片的先進封裝、組裝和堆疊的複雜性。

And no question that was driving up test intensity. I think to your point, the industry is moving so quickly to both move from 3 to 3E to 4, but also to build capacity, that I don't think there's going to be a really significant yield improvement trajectory. Yes, it will get better. But when you look at the complexity, especially as you increase the number of die in the stack, it's simple arithmetic, right? 16 die is going to have lower yields than 8 die, even if you've got something close to known good die going into that stack.

毫無疑問，這提高了測試強度。我認為就你的觀點而言，該行業正在迅速從 3 級轉向 3E 級再到 4 級，同時也在建立產能，因此我認為產量不會出現真正顯著的改善軌跡。是的，它會變得更好。但是當你考慮複雜性時，特別是當你增加堆疊中的晶片數量時，這是簡單的算術，對吧？16 個晶片的良率將低於 8 個晶片，即使您已將一些接近已知良好晶片的晶片放入該堆疊中。

So I think yields will improve for sure, but I think the overpowering increase, overdriving increase in test intensity really is associated with the dynamic of the industry moving so quickly to try and build both capability through the 3 to 3E to 4 transitions, but also building capacity as fast as it can to support the GPU demand, which, of course, is all being pulled through by hyperscaler investments in generative AI.

因此，我認為產量肯定會提高，但我認為測試強度的大幅增長、過度增長確實與行業如此迅速地嘗試通過 3 到 3E 到 4 的過渡來構建這兩種能力的動態有關，而且盡快建設容量來支持GPU 需求，當然，這一切都是由超大規模企業對產生人工智慧的投資所推動的。

Yes, that's helpful. The tough math of many chips and many tech transitions that's happening. Moving on and then touching on the foundry and logic item. So in a few of the recent calls, you've noted that there was particular customer strength from the US-based customer, and you cautioned that there might be some digestion or a breather coming and it sounds like some of that may actually be at play in the fourth quarter? Or is that, in fact, not the case?

是的，這很有幫助。許多晶片和許多正在發生的技術轉型需要嚴格的數學計算。繼續，然後觸及鑄造和邏輯項目。因此，在最近的幾次電話中，您注意到來自美國客戶的特殊客戶力量，並且您警告說，可能會有一些消化或喘息，聽起來其中一些可能實際上是在第四節比賽？或者事實上並非如此？

And have your views changed there? And if so, what's caused that view to change?

您的看法有改變嗎？如果是這樣，是什麼導致了這種觀點的改變？

I think if I look more broadly, any given customer, right, is going to have quarter-to-quarter ups and downs, right? There investing and ramping in individual designs or sets of designs, we saw this in Q3 with HBM with our major customer there. So you're going to have quarter-to-quarter fluctuations with any customer.

我認為，如果我看得更廣泛，任何給定的客戶，對吧，都會有季度與季度的起伏，對嗎？我們在第三季與 HBM 和我們的主要客戶一起看到了單一設計或一組設計的投資和增加。因此，任何客戶都會出現季度與季度之間的波動。

That's one of the reasons why we're so committed to this diversification strategy and doing things like making sure we're qualified at all leading customers. In this case, right, the qualification of the large fabless CPU and GPU customer remains a very high priority for us. So regardless of customer, I would expect to have quarter-to-quarter fluctuations. It's really the nature of the business.

這就是為什麼我們如此致力於這種多元化策略並採取諸如確保我們能夠勝任所有領先客戶等措施的原因之一。在這種情況下，大型無晶圓廠CPU和GPU客戶的資格對我們來說仍然是非常重要的優先事項。因此，無論客戶如何，我預計都會出現季度波動。這確實是商業的本質。

And if I could sneak in one last one. You did mention the opportunity with GPUs. Can you talk about new customer penetration opportunities and progress made in the third quarter and potential for things to close as you get into 2025?

如果我能偷偷溜進最後一張就好了。您確實提到了 GPU 的機會。您能否談談新的客戶滲透機會和第三季的進展以及進入 2025 年時完成工作的潛力？

Yes. So a couple of key customer qualifications that we've kept you at least at a high level update on. One is making sure we're qualified at the large fabless CPU, GPU manufacturer. We've continued to make good progress there, have worked with that customer to focus our qualification on an area where we're showing a differentiated capability. A smaller piece of the business, a specific application, but gets us the toehold in, and we do expect to be qualified there here in the fourth quarter.

是的。因此，我們至少為您提供了一些重要的客戶資格的最新資訊。一是確保我們具備大型無晶圓廠 CPU、GPU 製造商的資格。我們繼續在這方面取得良好進展，並與該客戶合作，將我們的資格集中在我們展示差異化能力的領域。業務的一小部分，一個特定的應用程序，但讓我們立足，我們確實希望在第四季度獲得資格。

For the major GPU manufacturer, who's already a pretty significant customer for us, based on the networking business and the silicon photonics partnership with co-packaged optics. The focus there is really on getting qualified and penetrating their advanced packaging business as they start to package GPUs together with HBM on the CoWos advanced packaging technology. And that's something we continue to execute on largely through the world's largest foundry because they're doing all of the packaging and test. But it's something we'll continue to keep you updated on as we continue to make progress.

對於主要的 GPU 製造商來說，基於網路業務以及矽光子與共封裝光學元件的合作關係，他們已經是我們相當重要的客戶。當他們開始在 CoWos 先進封裝技術上將 GPU 與 HBM 封裝在一起時，重點實際上是獲得資格並滲透他們的先進封裝業務。這是我們繼續主要透過世界上最大的代工廠執行的事情，因為他們正在做所有的封裝和測試。但隨著我們不斷取得進展，我們將繼續向您通報最新情況。

David Duley, Steelhead Securities.

大衛杜利 (David Duley)，Steelhead 證券公司。

Mike, I just had a couple of questions. You've kind of answered part of them, but as far as your pause in the third quarter, do you think that had something to do with your largest customer migrating from 3 to 3E and then to 4 or from 8 -- from 8 stacks to 12 stacks? Or -- I'm just kind of curious if that had something to do with your pause?

麥克，我只是有幾個問題。您已經回答了其中的一部分，但就您在第三季度的停頓而言，您認為這與您最大的客戶從 3 遷移到 3E，然後遷移到 4 或從 8（從 8 個堆疊）有關到12堆疊？或者——我只是有點好奇這是否與你的停頓有關？

Right. Well, remember, I think you're talking about HBM specifically, but I want to remind people for FormFactor overall, there was no pause in the third quarter. We set an all-time company revenue record. So we do want to keep that in context. There was a reduction in HBM revenue that we expected, again, through digestion.

正確的。好吧，請記住，我認為您具體談論的是 HBM，但我想提醒人們，總體而言，FormFactor 在第三季度沒有停頓。我們創造了公司歷史上的收入記錄。所以我們確實希望將其放在上下文中。透過消化，HBM 收入再次出現了我們預期的減少。

And as I answered Craig's question, this happens all the time, right? Customers will take large shipments for the designs they're going to ramp and then have these periods of digestion. So I don't know that you can tie it to any particular transition, but it's, again, one of the reasons why this diversification strategy that we've run for a decade plus is so important.

當我回答克雷格的問題時，這種情況經常發生，對吧？客戶將為他們將要進行的設計大量發貨，然後進行消化。所以我不知道你可以將其與任何特定的轉型聯繫起來，但這又是我們運行了十多年的多元化策略如此重要的原因之一。

If you look at any customer's revenue, it's going to be lumpy quarter-to-quarter, as they take shipments and then use those shipments of probe cards to produce wafer outs on a given design. Those happen for a quarter or two quarters and then that customer resumes their buying as they transition to the next design.

如果你觀察任何客戶的收入，你會發現每季的收入都會不穩定，因為他們接受出貨，然後使用這些出貨的探針卡來生產給定設計的晶圓。這些情況會持續一個季度或兩個季度，然後客戶在過渡到下一個設計時會恢復購買。

So when you look at our revenue, there's a whole bunch of lumpiness with each customer. You can chalk it up to some of the node transitions to some of the pauses to some of the changes, but that's why we're committed to this broad-based diversification strategy across all the leading customers and all the important markets in the industry.

因此，當你查看我們的收入時，會發現每個客戶都有大量的不穩定因素。您可以將其歸因於一些節點轉換、一些暫停、一些變化，但這就是為什麼我們致力於在所有領先客戶和行業內所有重要市場中實施這種廣泛基礎的多元化策略。

Okay. And then clearly, your largest customer on their conference call is talking up significant DRAM bit growth, particularly in HBM. You have them moving from 8 high stacks to 12 high stacks, perhaps 16 high stacks. Yields are definitely going down with that. You have the Blackwell transition with a number of die going up per GPU is significant.

好的。很明顯，您最大的客戶在電話會議上談論了 DRAM 位元的顯著成長，特別是在 HBM 領域。你讓他們從 8 個高堆疊移動到 12 個高堆棧，也許是 16 個高堆疊。產量肯定會隨之下降。Blackwell 過渡中每個 GPU 的晶片數量增加非常重要。

Is -- can you -- with all of these things, wouldn't you think your HBM revenue next year would grow significantly because it's not just unit volume driven, it's a bunch of different designs also on top of it?

是 - 您能 - 有了所有這些因素，您是否認為您明年的 HBM 收入會顯著增長，因為它不僅僅是由單位銷售驅動的，還有一系列不同的設計？

Yes. No, those are good observations. One of the things in laying out those points, there's a lot of moving parts as well, right? Yield design changes, wafer outs and obviously, does the HBM -- or at what level does the HBM output get driven by continued hyperscaler AI spending because that's the direct driver of it. I think with all those factors, our baseline assumption is that our HBM business is going to grow, partially because if you think about how our customers are approaching the market, they're essentially saying they're all sold out through 2025 and they're adding capacity at a pretty good clip.

是的。不，這些都是很好的觀察。列出這些要點的其中一件事是，還有很多活動部件，對吧？良率設計變化、晶圓輸出，顯然，HBM 也會發生變化，或者說 HBM 輸出在何種水平上受到持續的超大規模 AI 支出的驅動，因為這是其直接驅動因素。我認為考慮到所有這些因素，我們的基本假設是我們的HBM 業務將會成長，部分原因是如果你考慮一下我們的客戶如何進入市場，他們基本上會說到2025 年他們的產品都已售罄，而且他們'以相當好的剪輯增加容量。

And doing things like move from 3 to 3E to 4, which are all different sets of probe cards. So I think it's a reasonable assumption that if yields don't dramatically improve, as long as we're driven by those market dynamics, it's a reasonable assumption that our HBM business can grow.

並進行諸如從 3 移動到 3E 再到 4 之類的操作，這些都是不同組的探針卡。因此，我認為這是一個合理的假設，如果收益率沒有顯著提高，只要我們受到這些市場動態的推動，我們的 HBM 業務就能成長也是一個合理的假設。

Denis Pyatchanin, Stifel.

丹尼斯·皮查寧，斯蒂菲爾。

This is Denis on for Brian Chin. Given that you've alluded to the HBM spending reduction at the leading maker being over, directionally, how confident would you be that HBM revenue is higher in 2025 versus 2024? And on a related note, over what time frame could we see the other 2 HBM customers add more significant revenue to your top line?

我是丹尼斯 (Denis) 替布萊恩·欽 (Brian Chin) 發言。鑑於您已經提到領先製造商的 HBM 支出削減已經結束，您對 2025 年 HBM 收入比 2024 年更高的信心有多大？與此相關的是，在什麼時間範圍內我們可以看到其他 2 位 HBM 客戶為您的營收增加更多可觀的收入？

So I think I answered the first part of that question for David. It depends on a lot of the underlying assumptions. But as long as hyperscaler AI spending continues, that drives GPU growth, that drives continued attach and growth of HBM. So I think there's a reasonable chain there. And of course, if you think about the underlying transitions next year in going to HBM3 and then HBM4, which all require different probe cards, I think there's a reasonable case to be made for growth there.

所以我想我回答了大衛這個問題的第一部分。這取決於許多基本假設。但只要超大規模人工智慧支出持續成長，就會推動 GPU 成長，進而推動 HBM 的持續附加和成長。所以我認為那裡有一個合理的鏈條。當然，如果您考慮明年向 HBM3 和 HBM4 的潛在轉變（它們都需要不同的探針卡），我認為那裡有一個合理的成長理由。

If you think about the customer base and we pointed this out in the prepared remarks and I think in one of the answers to the questions, we are seeing the customer base broaden a little bit. Now if you look at HBM market share, not probe card market share, but who's producing the HBM bits in the industry, it is very heavily indexed to a single one of our customers.

如果你考慮一下客戶群，我們在準備好的評論中指出了這一點，我認為在問題的答案之一中，我們看到客戶群擴大了一點。現在，如果您查看 HBM 市場份額，而不是探針卡市場份額，而是查看行業中 HBM 位的生產商，您會發現它與我們的某個客戶密切相關。

So I think it's appropriate that our revenue will also be indexed to that customer. In the fourth quarter, because we're seeing -- well not because the fourth quarter, some of the growth -- sequential growth in HBM we're seeing is driven by a second DRAM customer coming online, and becoming a more significant part of the revenue. But I would expect as long as those market share dynamics for our customers supplying HBM continue, we're going to continue to see some pretty heavy customer concentration in it.

因此，我認為我們的收入也將與該客戶掛鉤是適當的。在第四季度，因為我們看到——不是因為第四季度，HBM 的部分成長——我們看到的 HBM 環比成長是由第二個 DRAM 客戶上線推動的，並成為了收入。但我預計，只要為 HBM 供應的客戶的市佔率動態持續下去，我們就會繼續看到一些相當高的客戶集中度。

I think the only other point I'll make is you talked about the dip in spending as being over. I'll again remind people that any one customer moves up and down quarter-to-quarter. And so I would expect quarterly fluctuations in digestion, again, at the risk of being repetitive, that's why it's so important for us to broaden our customer and application base as part of executing our diversification strategy.

我想我要說的唯一另一點是你談到支出下降已經結束。我將再次提醒人們，任何一個客戶都會隨著季度的變化而改變。因此，我預期消化會出現季度波動，同樣存在重複的風險，這就是為什麼作為執行多元化策略的一部分，擴大我們的客戶和應用基礎對我們來說如此重要。

That's a really great detail. And for my follow-up, could you provide some additional color related to your GM guide for Q4 being a little bit lower versus Q3, the mix, what segment markets are doing, et cetera?

這真是一個很棒的細節。對於我的後續行動，您能否提供一些與您的第四季度通用汽車指南比第三季度略低一些相關的額外資訊、組合、細分市場正在做什麼等等？

Yes, I'll let in Shai.

是的，我會讓Shai進來的。

Yes, I'll take that. So if you look at the revenue outlook, the midpoint of the outlook for Q4 is $190 million, which is below the record of $208 million, we did in Q3. And this is the main contributor to the decrease in gross margin, we see Q3 to Q4, it's a 1.3 percentage points lower at the midpoint of the outlook. It's really about volume. If we look at the mix, there is no major difference on the impact of the mix on the gross margin, although we see foundry and logic down, and we expect DRAM to go up a little bit, but we don't see a major impact on the mix of the gross margin.

是的，我會接受的。因此，如果你看一下營收前景，第四季前景的中點是 1.9 億美元，低於我們在第三季創下的 2.08 億美元的記錄。這是毛利率下降的主要原因，我們看到第三季到第四季度，展望中點下降了1.3個百分點。這確實與數量有關。如果我們看一下組合，組合對毛利率的影響沒有重大差異，儘管我們看到代工和邏輯下降，並且我們預計 DRAM 會略有上升，但我們沒有看到重大的變化。 。

It's really about volume.

這確實與數量有關。

Christian Schwab, Craig-Hallum.

克里斯蒂安·施瓦布，克雷格·哈勒姆。

Mike, I know you mentioned high bandwidth memory 4, but high-bandwidth 3E should still be about 80% of the bits shipped next year, right?

Mike，我知道您提到了高頻寬記憶體 4，但是高頻寬 3E 應該仍佔明年出貨量的 80% 左右，對吧？

Yes. So 3 is definitely going to dominate the bits shipped in '25, next year. But remember, we're going to lead the bit shipped because our business, the probe cards have to be in place, the testers have to be in place, for those chips to then be produced, ramp and be shipped. So we're going to lead output. And the transitions are happening so fast from 3 to 3E to 4, that late '25 into '26, we'd expect HBM4 to start to take over, and that's why we're seeing the activity now so that everything is ready on what's a pretty complex process.

是的。因此，3 肯定會在明年的 25 年出貨量中佔據主導地位。但請記住，我們將領先發貨，因為我們的業務、探針卡必須就位、測試儀必須就位，以便這些晶片能夠生產、提升並發貨。所以我們要引導輸出。從 3 到 3E 再到 4 的轉變發生得如此之快，從 25 年末到 26 年，我們預計 HBM4 會開始接管，這就是為什麼我們現在看到這一活動，以便一切都準備就緒。過程。

Great. Because my work says about 80% of the bits will be 3E, I just want to confirm that. Will we ship to all 3 high-bandwidth memory guys in '25?

偉大的。因為我的工作顯示大約 80% 的位將是 3E，所以我只想確認這一點。我們會在 25 年向所有 3 個高頻寬記憶體供應商發貨嗎？

Well, we have shipped, and I said this in the prepared remarks, we are shipping HBM cards to all 3 major DRAM manufacturers. Now it's, again, heavily indexed towards one because one customer is producing the lion's share of the HBM bits in the industry. But I think a bright spot in Q4 is we are starting to see a significant contribution in our revenue from a second DRAM customer for HBM.

嗯，我們已經發貨了，我在準備好的發言中說過，我們正在向所有 3 個主要 DRAM 製造商發貨 HBM 卡。現在，它再次嚴重依賴一個客戶，因為一個客戶正在生產行業中最大份額的 HBM 鑽頭。但我認為第四季度的一個亮點是我們開始看到 HBM 的第二個 DRAM 客戶對我們的收入做出了重大貢獻。

Okay. And then my last question, with Blackwell needing probe cards and the other one is not, could that customer, whether it be location in Taiwan, however, you're going to label that customer. Is that somebody you would anticipate becoming a 10% plus customer sometime in '25?

好的。然後我的最後一個問題是，Blackwell 需要探針卡，而另一個則不需要，該客戶是否可以，無論它位於台灣，但是，您要給該客戶貼上標籤。您是否預計他會在 25 年的某個時候成為 10% 以上的客戶？

It's sort of -- it's an interesting case because it depends how it works, right? Fabless customers have different procurement models for probe cards. Sometimes, they outsource it to particularly the foundry. And so the foundry is actually the customer that will report in our revenue. Sometimes it's the fabless customer themselves.

這是一個有趣的案例，因為這取決於它的工作原理，對吧？無晶圓廠客戶對探針卡有不同的採購模式。有時，他們會將其外包給特別是鑄造廠。因此，代工廠實際上是將報告我們收入的客戶。有時是無晶圓廠客戶本身。

That one, I suspect is going to be revenue attributed to the foundry, given their ownership of the overall assembly -- the CoWos assembly and test process -- and they haven't been a 10% customer for a while. They've been awfully close, sort of high single digits. I would expect some of these new advanced packaging opportunities like CoWos to drive them up into double digits and have them become a 10% customer at least sometime in 2025.

我懷疑這將是代工廠的收入，因為他們擁有整個組裝（CoWos 組裝和測試流程）的所有權，而且他們已經有一段時間沒有成為 10% 的客戶了。他們非常接近，有點高個位數。我預計 CoWos 等一些新的先進封裝機會將推動它們的成長率達到兩位數，並至少在 2025 年的某個時候成為 10% 的客戶。

Tom Diffely of D.A. Davidson.

D.A. 的湯姆‧迪夫利 (Tom Diffely)戴維森。

Maybe just a follow-up, another high bandwidth memory question on the back of Christian's question. Given your unique capabilities across doing different types of forms and formats. Would you expect this share to be fairly strong at all 3 makers of HBM over time? Or are there certain factors that go into perhaps not making that sell?

也許只是克里斯蒂安問題後面的一個後續問題，另一個高頻寬記憶體問題。鑑於您在處理不同類型的表格和格式方面的獨特能力。您是否預計隨著時間的推移，所有 3 個 HBM 製造商的這一份額都會相當強勁？或是否有某些因素導致該產品無法銷售？

Well, I think a couple of things, right? Customers can always make choices on where they put their test dollars, right? And there's times we've seen -- and we've seen this in standard DRAM where some customers have chosen to emphasize other areas of performance, maybe where we're not as strong, and that's caused share to go to our competitor. I think for HBM, we're pretty focused on some of the core enabling technologies, things like high speed. This is an area that over the years we've invested in.

嗯，我想有幾件事，對吧？客戶總是可以選擇將測試資金投入何處，對吧？有時我們已經看到 - 我們在標準 DRAM 中看到了這種情況，一些客戶選擇強調其他性能領域，也許是我們不那麼強大的領域，這導致份額流向了我們的競爭對手。我認為對於 HBM，我們非常關註一些核心支援技術，例如高速。這是我們多年來投資的一個領域。

Part of that was the acquisition of Cascade Microtech in 2016 to get us some RF know-how. And although that was really focused on the RF business, some of that know-how has come over to our DRAM road map as well and is driving some of the competitive advantage for high-frequency test and enabling HBM. I think realistically, our share with their current leading customer is pretty strong. And I would not expect to be able to drive that degree of share concentration. But I would expect -- you've got two suppliers worldwide who can do this.

其中一部分是 2016 年收購 Cascade Microtech，為我們提供了一些射頻專業知識。儘管我們真正專注於 RF 業務，但其中一些專業知識也已納入我們的 DRAM 路線圖，並正在推動高頻測試和支援 HBM 的一些競爭優勢。我認為實際上，我們與他們當前的主要客戶的份額相當大。我並不期望能夠推動這種程度的股票集中度。但我希望——全球有兩家供應商可以做到這一點。

Both of us understand we're capable and are going to behave rationally as we serve the overall growth of the DRAM market driven by HBM, but I'm not sure that I'd expect the degree of share at the other two that we have with the leading HBM customer right now.

我們雙方都明白，我們有能力並且會理性行事，為 HBM 驅動的 DRAM 市場的整體成長提供服務，但我不確定我是否會期望我們在其他兩家公司所佔的份額目前與領先的HBM 客戶合作。

Okay. No, that's fair. So Mike, I'm curious, what are you seeing in the kind of traditional DRAM market today? Have you seen signs of recovery there?

好的。不，這很公平。Mike，我很好奇，您對當今的傳統 DRAM 市場有何看法？您看到那裡有復甦的跡象嗎？

I don't know that I say recovery, we are surprised at the strength in DDR5, right? If you look at Q3, for example, we had HBM step down, sequentially, but we still set a DRAM record above $60 million in quarterly revenue. And we expect DDR5 to be a significant part of the growth off of that record here in Q4. So whether you attribute that to a cyclical recovery in DRAM, whether it's customers just managing their mix, I don't know. But the strength in DDR5, given end market DRAM things like spot pricing and inventories is a little bit surprising.

不知道我說恢復，我們對DDR5的強勢感到驚訝吧？例如，如果你看看第三季度，我們的 HBM 已連續下降，但我們仍然創下了季度收入超過 6000 萬美元的 DRAM 記錄。我們預計 DDR5 將成為第四季打破這一紀錄成長的重要組成部分。因此，我不知道你是否將其歸因於 DRAM 的周期性復甦，是否是客戶在管理他們的產品組合。但考慮到終端市場 DRAM 的現貨定價和庫存等因素，DDR5 的強勁表​​現有點令人驚訝。

Okay. Great. And then finally, Shai, you talked about the systems business having some cost issues. If you could maybe just elaborate on that, that would be great.

好的。偉大的。最後，Shai，您談到系統業務存在一些成本問題。如果您能詳細說明這一點，那就太好了。

Sure. Yes. So I talked about unexpected quality-related costs in Q3. These are things like warranty and inventory scrap, inventory write-offs. So that was the main reason for the additional expenses we saw in Q3.

當然。是的。所以我談到了第三季與品質相關的意外成本。這些是保固和庫存報廢、庫存沖銷等。這就是我們在第三季看到的額外費用的主要原因。

But there's no change in our goal and target for the systems business to achieve high 40s, low 50s gross margin for that segment.

但我們系統業務的目標並沒有改變，即實現該細分市場 40 年代高、50 年代低的毛利率。

Okay. Maybe just to clarify, that was just a one quarter issue? Or do you see it dragging out for a few more quarters?

好的。也許只是為了澄清，這只是四分之一的問題？或者你認為它還會再拖幾個季度嗎？

These specific issues are things we identified and are limited to that quarter. But we need to remember that there could be some mix shift within the system segment as well. And we did sell the FRT business that was a higher margin within the systems business, but there's no structural change there. And then we think we're going to get back to the high 40s, low, 50s.

這些具體問題是我們確定的，並且僅限於該季度。但我們需要記住，系統部分內也可能會有一些混合變化。我們確實出售了系統業務中利潤率較高的 FRT 業務，但沒有結構性變化。然後我們認為我們將回到 40 年代的高點，50 年代的低點。

Gus Richard, Northland Capital Markets.

格斯理查德，北國資本市場。

Looking at the gross margin in the quarter is down 280 bps sequential the logic versus DRAM mix is about the same was flash. And what changed was HBM versus DDR5. And I'm just wondering, can you talk a little bit about the decline in gross margin? Is that just purely a function of mix change in DRAM? And is there a premium for probe cards for HBM?

從本季的毛利率季減 280 個基點來看，邏輯與 DRAM 的組合與快閃記憶體的毛利率大致相同。變化的是 HBM 與 DDR5。我只是想知道，您能談談毛利率下降的情況嗎？這純粹是 DRAM 混合變化的函數嗎？HBM 探針卡有溢價嗎？

Indeed, it was from the change of mix on higher volume, that's obvious that it's because of mix. And the HBM probe card is a differentiated product. We invested a lot in R&D in it. It's differentiated, and that's why within that band of DRAM gross margin, HBM is on the high end of that range.

確實，這是來自於更高音量的混合變化，很明顯這是因為混合。而HBM探針卡是一款差異化產品。我們在研發方面投入了大量資金。它具有差異化，這就是為什麼在 DRAM 毛利率範圍內，HBM 處於該範圍的高端。

Okay. All right. That makes sense. And then just any predictions on when you expect co-packaged optics to sort of hit volume production or get out more out into the field?

好的。好的。這是有道理的。然後，您是否預計聯合封裝光學元件何時能夠實現大量生產或將更多產品投入該領域？

Yes. I don't think our timing view has changed on that much, right? It's probably late next year, early into 2026. But given all of the work that has to be done between now and then to make this production worthy, there's a lot of activity right now. And that's one of the reasons why we keep updating people on our progress.

是的。我認為我們的時間觀念沒有太大變化，對嗎？可能是明年年底、2026 年初。但考慮到從現在到那時必須完成的所有工作才能使這部作品有價值，現在有很多活動。這就是我們不斷向人們通報我們進展的原因之一。

We have more than 100 systems in labs and pilot lines around the world, but those are really low-volume applications. Where our focus is now partnering with both leading customers in the industry and other equipment suppliers who have pieces of the high-volume ready things like testers and handlers and probers, we're continuing -- that's a huge focus for our systems business right now. And we've got plenty to do, because it's very complex and combines both electrical test and optical test, it's going to take us until the end of '25 and into '26 to really together make this production worthy.

我們在世界各地的實驗室和試驗線上擁有 100 多個系統，但這些都是小批量應用。我們現在的重點是與業界領先的客戶和其他設備供應商合作，他們擁有測試儀、處理機和探測器等大批量現成產品，我們將繼續進行——這是我們系統業務目前的一個巨大焦點。我們還有很多工作要做，因為它非常複雜，並且結合了電氣測試和光學測試，我們需要到 25 年底到 26 年才能真正使這項生產變得有價值。

(Operator Instructions) And, as there appear to be no further questions in queue, I would now like to turn the conference back to Mike Slessor for closing remarks. Sir?

（操作員說明）而且，由於隊列中似乎沒有其他問題，我現在想將會議轉回邁克·斯萊索（Mike Slessor）進行閉幕致辭。先生？

Great. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. Obviously, an interesting time in the industry as we continue to execute on the great position we're in with HBM. Looking forward to seeing you at some of the end of the year conferences, if you're able to attend. And if not, as we move into 2025.

偉大的。謝謝大家今天加入我們。顯然，這是行業中一個有趣的時刻，我們將繼續保持 HBM 的良好地位。如果您能參加的話，期待在一些年終會議上見到您。如果沒有，當我們進入 2025 年。

Stay safe and healthy and talk to you soon. Bye-bye.

保持安全和健康，並儘快與您聯繫。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。