FormFactor Inc (FORM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to FormFactor's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

感謝大家，歡迎大家參加 FormFactor 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

On today's call are Chief Executive Officer, Mike Slessor; and Chief Financial Officer, Shai Shahar.

參加今天電話會議的有執行長 Mike Slessor；和財務長Shai Shahar。

Before we begin, Stan Finkelstein, the company's VP of Investor Relations, will remind you of some important information.

在我們開始之前，公司投資者關係副總裁 Stan Finkelstein 將提醒您一些重要資訊。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Today, the company will be discussing GAAP P&L results and some important non-GAAP results, intended to supplement your understanding of the company's financials.

今天，該公司將討論 GAAP 損益結果和一些重要的非 GAAP 結果，旨在補充您對公司財務狀況的了解。

Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and other financial information are available in the press release issued today by the company and on the Investor Relations section of our website.

公認會計準則與非公認會計準則指標的對帳表及其他財務資訊可在本公司今天發布的新聞稿中以及我們網站的投資者關係部分中找到。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws.

今天的討論包含聯邦證券法意義內的前瞻性陳述。

Examples of such forward-looking statements include those with respect to the projections of financial and business performance; future macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, the benefits of acquisitions and investments in capacity and in new technologies; the impacts of global, regional, and national health crisis, including the COVID-19 pandemic; anticipated industry trends; potential disruptions in our supply chain; the impacts of regulatory changes, including the recent US-China trade restrictions; the anticipated demand for products; our ability to develop, produce, and sell products; and the assumptions upon which such statements are based.

此類前瞻性陳述的例子包括有關財務和業務績效預測的陳述；未來的宏觀經濟和地緣政治條件、產能和新技術的收購和投資的收益；包括 COVID-19 大流行在內的全球、區域和國家衛生危機的影響；預期的行業趨勢；我們的供應鏈可能出現中斷；監管變化的影響，包括最近的中美貿易限制；預期的產品需求；我們開發、生產和銷售產品的能力；以及這些陳述所基於的假設。

These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed during this call.

這些聲明受已知和未知的風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中表達的結果有重大差異。

Information on the risk factors and uncertainties is contained in our most recent filing on Form 10-K with the SEC for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022 and in our other SEC filings, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov and in our press release issued today.

有關風險因素和不確定性的資訊包含在我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日財政年度的 10-K 表格中以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中，這些文件可在美國證券交易委員會網站 www.sec.gov 和我們今天發布的新聞稿中查閱。

Forward-looking statements are made as of today, February 7, 2024, and we assume no obligation to update them.

前瞻性陳述截至 2024 年 2 月 7 日為止，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

With that, we will now turn the call over to FormFactor's CEO, Mike Slessor.

現在，我們將電話轉交給 FormFactor 的執行長 Mike Slessor。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today on FormFactor's fourth-quarter earnings call.

感謝大家今天參加 FormFactor 第四季財報電話會議。

Formfactor's fourth-quarter results were in line with the outlook we provided last November.

Formfactor 第四季的業績與我們去年 11 月提供的預測一致。

Compared to that outlook, moderately higher revenue and gross margins were offset by a higher tax rate, producing non-GAAP EPS at the midpoint of the range.

與該前景相比，略高的收入和毛利率被較高的稅率所抵消，導致非 GAAP 每股收益處於該範圍的中間點。

As we enter 2024, we continue to operate in an overall demand environment that remains similar to the levels we experienced during the past year, and we expect first-quarter results to be similar to those achieved in recent quarters.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續在與過去一年經歷的水平相似的整體需求環境中運營，並且我們預計第一季的業績將與最近幾個季度的業績相似。

The relatively stable aggregate demand across our combined served markets is a benefit of FormFactor's diversification strategy and sets us apart from our direct competitors.

我們服務的綜合市場的總需求相對穩定，這是 FormFactor 多元化策略的優勢，使我們有別於直接競爭對手。

FormFactor has a broad lab-to-fab product portfolio across foundry and logic, DRAM, and flash probe cards, together with our system segment products.

FormFactor 擁有廣泛的從實驗室到晶圓廠的產品組合，涵蓋代工廠和邏輯、DRAM 和快閃探針卡，以及我們的系統細分產品。

This unique portfolio enables us to compete for business across diverse demand pools at all major customers, producing relatively consistent top-line results as we've demonstrated for the past four quarters and which we expect again in the current quarter.

這種獨特的產品組合使我們能夠在所有主要客戶的不同需求池中競爭業務，從而產生相對穩定的營收業績，正如我們在過去四個季度所展示的那樣，我們預計本季度仍將如此。

Customer investments in growing areas, driven by generative AI like high-bandwidth memory and co-packaged silicon photonics, is helping offset the impact of areas that are presently at cyclically low levels like mobile handsets and PCs and those entering cyclical downturns like automotive and industrial.

在高頻寬記憶體和共封裝矽光子學等生成式人工智慧的推動下，客戶對成長領域的投資有助於抵消行動手機和個人電腦等目前處於週期性低迷水平的領域以及汽車和工業等進入週期性低迷的領域的影響。

This stability also enables FormFactor to keep investing in R&D for new product innovation and competitive differentiation, especially in our product roadmap for advanced packaging applications like chiplets and tiles, high-bandwidth memory, and co-packaged optics.

這種穩定性也使 FormFactor 能夠繼續投資於新產品創新和競爭差異化的研發，特別是在我們針對晶片和瓷磚、高頻寬記憶體和共封裝光學元件等先進封裝應用的產品路線圖中。

It also enables us to invest in capacity and other strategic initiatives designed to produce market share gains in above-industry revenue and profit growth when the industry returns to growth, which will enable FormFactor to achieve and then surpass the levels of our current target financial model.

它還使我們能夠投資於產能和其他策略舉措，以便在行業恢復成長時實現高於行業收入和利潤增長的市場份額增長，這將使 FormFactor 達到並超越我們當前目標財務模型的水平。

Because of the strength and stability of our balanced product portfolio, we can make these investments while maximizing quarterly profitability and protecting our strong balance sheet throughout prolonged periods of industry softness.

由於我們均衡的產品組合的實力和穩定性，我們可以進行這些投資，同時最大化季度盈利能力，並在長期的行業疲軟時期保護我們強勁的資產負債表。

Turning now to segment level details.

現在轉向細分級別的細節。

DRAM probe cards are an area of current strength, and we expect first-quarter DRAM revenue to approach the peak levels experienced in 2021.

DRAM 探測卡是目前的強項，我們預計第一季 DRAM 營收將接近 2021 年的高峰水準。

DRAM's strength is being driven by two factors.

DRAM 的強勢受到兩個因素的推動。

First, and perhaps surprisingly, we're experiencing strong demand generated by new DDR5 DRAM designs, as customers prepare for high-volume production when the eventual DRAM upturn arrives.

首先，也許令人驚訝的是，我們正經歷新 DDR5 DRAM 設計產生的強勁需求，因為客戶正在為 DRAM 最終好轉時進行大批量生產做準備。

This provides insight into the unique characteristics of probe card demand since probe cards are a device-specific consumable customized to each individual chip design.

這提供了對探針卡需求的獨特特徵的洞察，因為探針卡是針對每個單獨的晶片設計定制的設備專用消耗品。

Early production activity for these new DDR5 designs is driving demand for new probe cards, albeit at lower overall levels and with somewhat greater short-term volatility than we might expect to see in a full-scale cyclical upturn.

這些新 DDR5 設計的早期生產活動正在推動對新探測卡的需求，儘管總體水平較低且短期波動性比我們預期的全面週期性上升中要大一些。

The second factor behind our strong DRAM outlook is the continuing acceleration in demand from multiple customers for probe card to test high-bandwidth memory, or HBM.

我們對 DRAM 前景看好的第二個因素是多個客戶對用於測試高頻寬記憶體 (HBM) 的探針卡的需求持續成長。

Together with the headline-grabbing GPUs, HBM is a key enabler for generative AI, and we are forecasting nearly 50% sequential growth in our HBM probe card business in the first quarter.

與引人注目的 GPU 一起，HBM 是產生 AI 的關鍵推動因素，我們預測第一季 HBM 探針卡業務將環比成長近 50%。

HBM offers a great example of how advanced packaging is driving FormFactor's results.

HBM 提供了一個很好的例子，說明先進封裝如何推動 FormFactor 的表現。

As we mentioned in the past, advanced packaging applications like HBM produced both higher test intensity, which expands the number of probe cards required per good die out and higher test complexity, which raises the performance requirements for each probe card.

正如我們過去提到的，HBM 等先進封裝應用既產生了更高的測試強度，從而擴大了每個良好裸片所需的探針卡數量，也產生了更高的測試複雜性，從而提高了每個探針卡的性能要求。

Each HBM chip is a stack of 8, 12 or even 16 individual DRAM die assembled with advanced packaging processes such as through silicon vias and hybrid bonding.

每個 HBM 晶片都是由 8、12 甚至 16 個獨立 DRAM 晶片堆疊而成，採用矽通孔和混合鍵合等先進封裝製程組裝而成。

To ensure high yields of the stack DRAM chip, customers probe and test each component DRAM die prior to stacking and probe and test the multi-die DRAM stack at various points during the assembly process, leading to a substantial increase in the overall probe card intensity for good die out.

為確保堆疊 DRAM 晶片的高良率，客戶在堆疊之前會探測並測試每個組件 DRAM 晶片，並在組裝過程中的各個點探測並測試多晶片 DRAM 堆疊，從而大幅提高整體探測卡強度，以獲得良好的晶片。

In addition, the technical requirements for HBM test are significantly more advanced than for standard unstacked DRAM products, involving higher test speeds and more challenging thermal scaling specifications.

此外，HBM 測試的技術要求比標準非堆疊 DRAM 產品先進得多，涉及更高的測試速度和更具挑戰性的熱縮放規範。

FormFactor's MEMS-based SmartMatrix probe card architecture meets these advanced requirements, providing significant value to our customers and differentiation for FormFactor.

FormFactor 基於 MEMS 的 SmartMatrix 探針卡架構滿足了這些先進的要求，為我們的客戶提供了巨大的價值，並為 FormFactor 帶來了差異化。

We believe our superior performance capabilities will drive both market share and profitability gains as HBM continues to grow, driven by the accelerating adoption of generative AI.

我們相信，隨著 HBM 在生成式 AI 加速採用的推動下持續成長，我們卓越的性能將推動市場份額和獲利能力的成長。

Shifting to foundry and logic probe cards, our largest business, we experienced the expected sequential reduction in the fourth quarter, as key customers digested the significant third-quarter shipments of probe cards for a major tile-based client PC design and two major high-performance compute designs in the foundry space.

轉向我們最大的業務——代工和邏輯探針卡，我們在第四季度經歷了預期中的連續下降，因為主要客戶消化了第三季度用於主要的基於瓷磚的客戶端PC設計和代工領域兩種主要高性能計算設計的探針卡的大量出貨量。

We expect similar demand levels for foundry and logic probe cards in the current quarter as customers continue to closely manage their output now that inventories have stabilized at healthy levels in high unit volume end markets like client PC, and mobile.

我們預計本季對代工和邏輯探針卡的需求水準相似，因為目前客戶端個人電腦和行動裝置等高單位產量終端市場的庫存已經穩定在健康水平，客戶繼續密切管理其產量。

Looking further ahead, the adoption of advanced packaging processes like chiplets and tiles by major foundry and logic customers continues to accelerate as they seek to advance their roadmaps in the face of a slowing Moore's Law.

展望未來，在摩爾定律放緩的情況下，主要代工廠和邏輯客戶尋求推進其發展路線圖，對小晶片和塊等先進封裝製程的採用將繼續加速。

As in high-bandwidth memory, advanced packaging in foundry and logic applications again demands both higher test intensity and higher test complexity.

與高頻寬記憶體一樣，代工廠和邏輯應用中的先進封裝再次要求更高的測試強度和更高的測試複雜性。

The positive impact of this trend, together with the potential for increased compute power in PCs and handsets to support AI at the edge, will drive significant growth in the foundry and logic probe card market.

這一趨勢的正面影響，加上個人電腦和手機運算能力的提升以支援邊緣人工智慧的潛力，將推動代工和邏輯探針卡市場的顯著成長。

As anticipated, we experienced a sequential reduction in systems segment revenue in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the sale of our FRT Metrology business.

正如預期的那樣，我們的系統部門收入在第四季度環比下降，這主要是由於出售了我們的 FRT 計量業務。

The systems business continues to be driven by strong demand for our market-leading test and measurement products for early development of applications like co-packaged silicon photonics and quantum computing.

系統業務繼續受到我們市場領先的測試和測量產品的強勁需求的推動，這些產品用於共封裝矽光子學和量子計算等應用的早期開發。

More broadly, systems is an important element of our diversification strategy, as spending in this segment is primarily driven by customer innovation and R&D budgets and does not directly correlate with semiconductor production activity.

更廣泛地說，系統是我們多元化策略的重要組成部分，因為該領域的支出主要由客戶創新和研發預算驅動，與半導體生產活動並不直接相關。

Co-packaged optics enabled by silicon photonics remains an important and exciting driver for FormFactor's current systems and future probe card businesses.

由矽光子學實現的共封裝光學元件仍然是 FormFactor 當前系統和未來探針卡業務的重要且令人興奮的驅動力。

The transition of silicon photonics from early R&D to low-volume production continues, and we have now installed the CM300 silicon photonics system at the world's leading foundry to support low-volume production, as well as serve as a platform for the co-development of the enhancements needed for high volume electrical and optical test of co-package optics.

矽光子學從早期研發向小批量生產的轉變仍在繼續，我們現在已經在全球領先的代工廠安裝了 CM300 矽光子系統，以支援小批量生產，並作為共同開發共封裝光學元件大批量電氣和光學測試所需增強功能的平台。

As production volumes increase over the next several years, our product road map delivers both systems and consumable probe cards to test these electro-optical devices and improve yields, enabling our customers to seamlessly transition from the lab to the fab.

隨著未來幾年產量的增加，我們的產品路線圖將提供系統和消耗性探針卡來測試這些光電設備並提高產量，使我們的客戶能夠無縫地從實驗室過渡到工廠。

Finally, earlier today, we announced an agreement to divest our subsidiaries in China to Grand Junction Semiconductor, together with a long-term exclusive distribution and partnership agreement.

最後，今天早些時候，我們宣布了一項協議，將我們在中國的子公司剝離給大章克申半導體公司，並附上一份長期獨家分銷和合作協議。

This transaction is designed to adjust our operational strategy in the region in light of export controls that caused our China revenues to decline over the past several quarters.

此次交易旨在根據出口管制導致我們在中國的收入在過去幾季下降的情況調整我們在該地區的營運策略。

In closing, we continue to operate efficiently and prudently in what we see as a relatively stable demand environment across our diversified product and technology portfolio.

最後，我們將繼續在多元化產品和技術組合相對穩定的需求環境下有效率、謹慎地運作。

Longer term, we remain excited and confident in the growth prospects for FormFactor and the industry overall, driven by the fundamental trends of semiconductor content growth and exciting innovations like HBM, chiplets, and co-packaged silicon photonics.

從長遠來看，我們仍然對 FormFactor 和整個產業的成長前景感到興奮和充滿信心，這得益於半導體內容成長的基本趨勢以及 HBM、小晶片和共封裝矽光子學等令人興奮的創新。

These are trends where FormFactor is well positioned as an industry and technology leader.

在這些趨勢中，FormFactor 佔據著行業和技術領導者的有利位置。

And we're confident that our investments in R&D and capacity position FormFactor to emerge from the current cyclical downturn, a stronger and leaner competitor, enabling us to achieve our target model that delivers $2 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $850 million of revenue.

我們相信，我們在研發和產能方面的投資將使 FormFactor 擺脫當前的周期性衰退，成為更強大、更精簡的競爭對手，使我們能夠實現我們的目標模式，即在 8.5 億美元的營收上實現每股 2 美元的非 GAAP 收益。

Shai, over to you.

謝伊，交給你了。

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon.

謝謝你，麥克，下午好。

As you saw in our press release, Q4 revenues and non-GAAP gross margin were at the high end of our outlook range and non-GAAP EPS was at the midpoint of the range.

正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，第四季度的收入和非 GAAP 毛利率處於我們預期範圍的高端，而非 GAAP EPS 處於範圍的中間點。

Fourth-quarter revenues were $168.2 million, a 2% sequential decrease from our third-quarter revenues and a year-over-year increase of 1.3% from our Q4 2022 revenues.

第四季營收為 1.682 億美元，季減 2%，年增 1.3%。

Probe card segment revenues were $126.8 million (sic - see Supplemental Financial Information, "$126.9 million") in the fourth quarter, a decrease of $1.5 million, or 1.3% from the third-quarter revenues, and a year-over-year increase of 1.9%.

探測卡部門第四季度營收為 1.268 億美元（原文如此 - 見補充財務信息，“1.269 億美元”），較第三季度營收減少 150 萬美元，即 1.3%，較去年同期增長 1.9%。

The decrease from Q3 was driven by lower foundry and logic revenues, partially offset by an increase in DRAM and flash revenues.

與第三季相比，收入下降是由於代工和邏輯電路收入下降，但 DRAM 和快閃記憶體收入的成長部分抵消了這一影響。

Systems segment revenues were $41.2 million in Q4, a $2 million decrease from third-quarter record revenues and essentially flat year over year.

系統部門第四季的營收為 4,120 萬美元，較第三季的創紀錄收入減少 200 萬美元，與去年同期基本持平。

The decrease from the third quarter is mainly due to the sale of FRT, which closed on October 31.

與第三季相比，下降主要是由於 FRT 的出售，該出售已於 10 月 31 日結束。

Systems segment revenues comprised 24.5% of total company revenues, slightly down from 25.2% in the third quarter.

系統部門營收占公司總營收的 24.5%，略低於第三季的 25.2%。

Within the probe card segment, Q4 foundry and logic revenues were $83.6 million (sic - see Supplemental Financial Information, "$83.8 million"), a 13.3% decrease from the third-quarter revenues. foundry and logic revenues decreased to 49.8% of total company revenues compared to 56.2% in the third quarter.

在探針卡領域，第四季度代工和邏輯收入為 8,360 萬美元（原文如此 - 參見補充財務資訊「8,380 萬美元」），較第三季度收入下降 13.3%。代工和邏輯電路收入占公司總收入的比例從第三季的56.2%下降至49.8%。

DRAM revenues were $35.9 million in Q4, $8.5 million or 31% higher than in the third quarter, an increase to 21.4% of total quarterly revenues as compared to 16% in the third quarter.

第四季 DRAM 營收為 3,590 萬美元，比第三季增加 850 萬美元或 31%，佔季總收入的 21.4%，而第三季為 16%。

Flash revenues of $7.3 million in Q4 were $2.8 million higher than in the third quarter and were 4.3% of total revenues in Q4 as compared to 2.6% in Q3.

第四季的 Flash 營收為 730 萬美元，比第三季高出 280 萬美元，佔第四季總營收的 4.3%，而第三季為 2.6%。

Gross margin for the fourth -- sorry, GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter was 40.4%, same as in Q3.

第四季的毛利率——抱歉，第四季的 GAAP 毛利率為 40.4%，與第三季相同。

Cost of revenues included $2.8 million of GAAP to non-GAAP reconciling items, which we outlined in our press release issued today and in a reconciliation table available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

收入成本包括 280 萬美元的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節項目，我們在今天發布的新聞稿中以及我們網站投資者關係部分提供的調整表中對此進行了概述。

On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin for the fourth quarter was 42.1%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the 41.8% non-GAAP gross margin in Q3 and 1.1 percentage points above the midpoint of our outlook range.

以非公認會計準則計算，第四季毛利率為 42.1%，較第三季的 41.8% 非公認會計準則毛利率高 0.3 個百分點，比我們預期範圍的中點高 1.1 個百分點。

The increases compared to Q3 and the upside versus the midpoint of our outlook range were mostly a result of higher gross margin in the probe card segment, partially offset by lower systems segment gross margin.

與第三季相比的成長以及與我們預期範圍中點相比的上漲，主要是由於探針卡部門的毛利率較高，但係統部門的毛利率較低，部分抵消了這一增長。

Our probe card segment gross margin was 39.6% in the fourth quarter, an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to 38.5% in Q3.

我們探針卡部分第四季的毛利率為39.6%，較第三季的38.5%上升了1.1個百分點。

The increase from Q3 is mainly due to improved factory utilization and lower excess and obsolete inventory expense, partially offset by a less favorable mix and lower volume.

與第三季相比，成長的主要原因是工廠利用率提高以及過剩和過時庫存費用降低，但被產品組合不佳和銷售下降部分抵消。

Our Q4 systems segment gross margin was 49.6%, 220 basis points lower than the 51.8% gross margin in the third quarter.

我們第四季系統部門的毛利率為 49.6%，比第三季的 51.8% 毛利率低 220 個基點。

The decrease relates mainly to the sale of FRT during the quarter, which resulted in a less favorable mix and inventory adjustments related to the transaction close.

下降主要與本季度 FRT 的銷售有關，這導致了與交易結束相關的產品組合和庫存調整不太有利。

Our GAAP operating expenses were $59.6 million for the fourth quarter as compared to $66.6 million in the third quarter.

我們第四季的 GAAP 營業費用為 5,960 萬美元，而第三季為 6,660 萬美元。

The main reasons for the decrease versus Q3 were non-recurring M&A expenses in the third quarter and only one month of FRT OpEx in the fourth quarter, partially offset by higher performance-based compensation in Q4.

與第三季相比下降的主要原因是第三季的非經常性併購費用以及第四季僅一個月的 FRT OpEx，但第四季更高的績效薪酬部分抵消了下降。

Non-GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $51.6 million, or 30.7% of revenues, as compared with $54.5 million, or 31.8% of revenues in Q3.

第四季非公認會計準則營業費用為 5,160 萬美元，佔營收的 30.7%，而第三季為 5,450 萬美元，佔營收的 31.8%。

The decrease relates to similar reasons I mentioned regarding GAAP operating expenses.

這一下降與我之前提到的有關 GAAP 營業費用的類似原因有關。

Company non-cash expenses for the fourth quarter included $9.3 million for stock-based compensation, $1.6 million lower than in the third quarter due to timing of grants; $0.8 million for the amortization of acquisition-related intangibles, $0.5 million lower than in Q3; and depreciation of $7.7 million similar to the third quarter.

該公司第四季的非現金支出包括 930 萬美元的股票薪酬，由於授予時間原因，比第三季減少 160 萬美元；收購相關無形資產攤提 80 萬美元，較第三季減少 50 萬美元；折舊費用為 770 萬美元，與第三季持平。

GAAP operating income was $81.3 million for Q4 and includes a $73 million gain from the sale of FRT, compared with GAAP operating income of $2.7 million in Q3.

第四季 GAAP 營業收入為 8,130 萬美元，其中包括出售 FRT 的 7,300 萬美元收益，而第三季 GAAP 營業收入為 270 萬美元。

The gain from the sale of FRT has been excluded from our fourth-quarter non-GAAP results.

出售 FRT 所得的收益已從我們的第四季非 GAAP 業績中排除。

Non-GAAP operating income for the fourth quarter was $19.1 million compared with $17.3 million in the third quarter, an increase of $1.9 million or 10.8%.

第四季非公認會計準則營業收入為 1,910 萬美元，而第三季為 1,730 萬美元，增加 190 萬美元，增幅 10.8%。

GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $75.8 million, or $0.97 per fully diluted share, compared with a GAAP net income of $4.4 million, or $0.06 per fully diluted share in the previous quarter.

第四季 GAAP 淨收入為 7,580 萬美元，或每股攤薄收益 0.97 美元，而上一季 GAAP 淨收入為 440 萬美元，或每股攤薄收益 0.06 美元。

The main reason for the increase is the gain on the sale of FRT.

成長的主要原因是FRT出售收益。

The non-GAAP effective tax rate for the fourth quarter was 21.2% as compared with the 12.2% in the third quarter, mainly due to usual year-end adjustments and changes in mix of foreign versus domestic taxable income.

第四季非公認會計準則有效稅率為 21.2%，而第三季為 12.2%，這主要由於通常的年終調整以及國外與國內應稅收入組合的變化。

For the full fiscal 2023, the non-GAAP effective tax rate was 15.6%, within the range of 13% to 17% previously communicated and similar to the 15.4% in 2022.

整個 2023 財年的非 GAAP 有效稅率為 15.6%，在先前公佈的 13% 至 17% 範圍內，與 2022 年的 15.4% 相似。

We estimate that our annual non-GAAP effective tax rate for 2024 will be between 14% and 18%.

我們估計，2024 年的非 GAAP 年度有效稅率將在 14% 至 18% 之間。

Fourth-quarter non-GAAP net income was $15.7 million, or $0.20 per fully diluted share, compared to $17.3 million were $0.22 per fully diluted share in Q3.

第四季非 GAAP 淨收入為 1,570 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.20 美元，而第三季為 1,730 萬美元，即每股攤薄收益 0.22 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。

We used $0.3 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter compared to generating $16.9 million in Q3.

我們第四季使用了 30 萬美元的自由現金流，而第三季產生了 1,690 萬美元。

The main reasons for the change were timing of shipments to and collection from customers during the fourth quarter and higher capital expenditures.

造成這項變化的主要原因是第四季度向客戶發貨和收貨的時間表以及資本支出增加。

We invested $9.9 million in capital expenditures during the fourth quarter compared to $5.9 million in Q3.

我們在第四季的資本支出為 990 萬美元，而第三季為 590 萬美元。

This brings our 2023 annual capital expenditures to $56 million, within the range previously communicated.

這使得我們 2023 年的年度資本支出達到 5,600 萬美元，在先前公佈的範圍內。

The decrease in CapEx in the second half of 2023 as compared to the first half and as compared with the $65.3 million invested in 2022 is due to completing the majority of the long lead time facilities and equipment investments required to reach our target financial model.

2023 年下半年的資本支出與上半年相比有所減少，與 2022 年投資的 6,530 萬美元相比，這是由於完成了實現目標財務模型所需的大部分長期設施和設備投資。

Accordingly, we expect CapEx in 2024 to be between $35 million and $45 million.

因此，我們預計 2024 年的資本支出將在 3,500 萬美元至 4,500 萬美元之間。

At quarter end, total cash and investments were [$332 million], an increase of $84 million from Q3.

截至季末，現金和投資總額為 3.32 億美元，較第三季增加 8,400 萬美元。

The increase was mainly a result of approximately $104 million received from the sale of FRT, partially offset by the $9.9 million of capital expenditure I just described, and by stock buyback in the amount of $20 million.

這一增長主要由於出售 FRT 所獲得的約 1.04 億美元，部分被我剛才描述的 990 萬美元的資本支出和 2000 萬美元的股票回購所抵消。

As of the end of the fourth quarter, we had one term loan remaining with a balance totaling $14 million.

截至第四季末，我們有一筆定期貸款剩餘，餘額為 1,400 萬美元。

Regarding the stock buyback, as I mentioned, during the fourth quarter, we purchased $20 million worth of shares to fully utilize our $75 million two-year buyback program that was approved in May 2022 and started utilizing the new $75 million two-year plan that was approved in October 2023.

關於股票回購，正如我所提到的，在第四季度，我們購買了價值 2000 萬美元的股票，以充分利用我們於 2022 年 5 月批准的 7500 萬美元兩年期回購計劃，並開始利用 2023 年 10 月批准的新的 7500 萬美元兩年計劃。

As of Q4 quarter end, $73.8 million remain available for future repurchases under this plan.

截至第四季末，根據該計劃仍有 7,380 萬美元可供未來回購。

As a reminder, the main purpose of the share repurchase program is to offset dilution from stock-based compensation.

提醒一下，股票回購計畫的主要目的是抵銷股票薪資的稀釋。

Turning to the first-quarter non-GAAP outlook.

轉向第一季非 GAAP 展望。

We expect Q1 revenues of $165 million, plus or minus $5 million.

我們預計第一季的營收為 1.65 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元。

At the midpoint of our outlook range, Q1 revenues is expected to be approximately $3 million lower than in Q4.

按照我們預期範圍的中位數，預計第一季的營收將比第四季低約 300 萬美元。

The expected decrease relates to lower systems segment revenues, mainly due to the sale of FRT in Q4.

預期下降與系統部門收入下降有關，主要由於第四季度 FRT 的銷售。

And in the probe card segment, we expect flat foundry and logic and lower flash revenues in the fourth quarter, partially offset by an increase in DRAM revenues.

在探測卡領域，我們預計第四季代工和邏輯收入將持平，快閃記憶體收入將下降，但 DRAM 收入的成長將部分抵消這一影響。

The sale of our Chinese subsidiaries that we announced today is expected to close in the first half of 2024 and it is not expected to have a significant impact on our financial results.

我們今天宣布的中國子公司出售預計將於 2024 年上半年完成，預計不會對我們的財務業績產生重大影響。

First-quarter non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 41%, plus or minus 150 basis points.

預計第一季非 GAAP 毛利率為 41%，上下浮動 150 個基點。

The expected decrease at the midpoint of this range as compared to Q4 '23 gross margin is a result of a less favorable product mix, mainly the expected decrease in system segment revenues and the increasing DRAM revenues.

與 23 年第四季的毛利率相比，該範圍中點預計會下降，這是由於產品組合不太有利，主要是系統部門收入預計會下降而 DRAM 收入會增加。

Although we expect HBM revenues to grow in the first quarter, non-HBM DRAM revenues, which has a lower gross margin profile, is also expected to grow.

雖然我們預計第一季 HBM 收入將會成長，但毛利率較低的非 HBM DRAM 收入預計也將成長。

At the midpoint of this outlook ranges, we expect Q1 operating expenses to be $53 million, plus or minus $1 million.

在這一預期範圍的中間值，我們預計第一季的營運費用為 5,300 萬美元，上下浮動 100 萬美元。

The increase as compared to Q4 is mainly a result of the annual benefits reset.

與第四季相比的成長主要由於年度福利重置。

Non-GAAP earnings per fully diluted share for Q1 is expected to be $0.19, plus or minus $0.04. A reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP Q1 outlook is available on the Investor Relations section of our website and in our press release issued today.

預計第一季非 GAAP 每股攤薄收益為 0.19 美元，上下浮動 0.04 美元。我們的網站的「投資者關係」部分以及我們今天發布的新聞稿中提供了我們的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 第一季展望的對帳表。

With that, let's open the call for questions.

現在，我們開始提問。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Brian Chin, Stifel.

(操作員指示) Brian Chin，Stifel。

Hi there. Good afternoon.

你好呀。午安.

Thanks for letting us ask a few questions.

感謝您讓我們提出幾個問題。

Maybe first, and I know, Shai, you just said that upon closure in first half, the China investor kind of has no impact.

也許首先，我知道，Shai，您剛才說，在上半年結束時，中國投資者沒有產生任何影響。

But I mean, I mentioned there are some financial implications, either in terms of cost and margins, some expectations as it relates to revenue, even maybe some cash on the balance sheet.

但我的意思是，我提到這會產生一些財務影響，無論是在成本和利潤方面，還是與收入相關的一些預期，甚至可能是資產負債表上的一些現金。

Can you maybe break that down a little bit more and also whatever regulatory hurdles or other hurdles need to be cleared to consummate the transaction?

您能否進一步詳細說明一下，以及完成交易需要清除哪些監管障礙或其他障礙？

Sure.

當然。

So as I said, we don't expect it to have a significant impact on our financial results.

正如我所說，我們預計它不會對我們的財務表現產生重大影響。

When it comes to the balance sheet, once the deal closes, we will make the appropriate disclosure with more details.

至於資產負債表，一旦交易完成，我們將做出適當的揭露，提供更多細節。

But since the details of the transaction were not disclosed, you can imagine that we concluded it's immaterial.

但由於交易細節尚未披露，你可以想像我們得出的結論是它並不重要。

When it comes to the P&L, again, not a material impact.

說到損益表，同樣沒有重大影響。

We maintain -- we continue to maintain the direct relationships with the multi-national customers in the region.

我們保持—我們繼續與該地區的跨國客戶保持直接關係。

And with respect to the local China customers, we have the new distribution agreement, and we expect and hope that this will continue to grow our China business as we move forward.

對於中國本地客戶，我們簽訂了新的分銷協議，我們期望並希望這將在我們未來的發展中繼續促進我們中國業務的成長。

And that's the conclusion; we don't expect it to have material impact.

這就是結論；我們預計它不會產生實質影響。

And Mike, do you want to refer to the regulatory?

麥克，你想參考一下監理規定嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Brian, this has been structured in a way where we don't believe there are significant regulatory approvals required.

布萊恩，我們認為，按照這樣的結構，不需要獲得重大監管部門的批准。

Basically, what we're doing is divesting what's in China already.

從根本上來說，我們所做的就是剝離已在中國存在的資產。

And so there's no technology transfer, no significant technology licensing.

因此不存在技術轉讓，也沒有重要的技術許可。

It really is a focus and a shift to our operational and customer channel strategy in the region, given some of the challenges we've had with the export control.

考慮到我們在出口管制方面遇到的一些挑戰，這實際上是我們在該地區的營運和客戶通路策略的重點和轉變。

You've seen our domestic China revenue contract over the past several quarters, and this is a response to that.

大家已經看到我們過去幾季在中國國內的收入有所下降，這是對此的回應。

We are hopeful that Grand Junction can bring some more resources and focus to those business, and through the distribution channel, help grow our domestic China business for us.

我們希望 Grand Junction 能為這些業務帶來更多資源和關注，並透過分銷管道幫助我們發展中國國內業務。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, it's helpful.

是的，很有幫助。

And maybe for my follow-up, can you quantify -- I guess it's been operating maybe around $10 million a quarter, but what the HBM contribution was to the $36 million year end in Q4?

也許對於我的後續問題，您能否量化一下——我猜它每季度的營運收入可能在 1000 萬美元左右，但 HBM 對第四季度 3600 萬美元的年終貢獻是多少？

And then also kind of more broadly, do you see wafer probe card test intensity to continue to increase alongside your customers' roadmaps based on more die stacking, hybrid bonding, et cetera?

然後從更廣泛的角度來看，您是否認為晶圓探針卡測試強度將隨著客戶基於更多晶片堆疊、混合鍵合等的發展路線圖而繼續增加？

Or do you see test intensity leveling off at some point as customers' yields and manufacturing efficiency improves?

或者您認為隨著客戶產量和製造效率的提高，測試強度會在某個時候趨於平穩？

Yeah, I think it's a question of timing on the second one.

是的，我認為第二個是時間問題。

I think for the medium term, certainly through 2024 and into 2025 with HBM, customers are still riding up a pretty significant yield learning curve.

我認為從中期來看，肯定到 2024 年和 2025 年，隨著 HBM 的出現，客戶仍然面臨相當顯著的收益學習曲線。

And so the increase in test intensity that we've talked about associated with die stacking in advanced packaging of 20% to 30%, I think we're pretty confident is going to hold here as we go through the early part of the HBM3 and into the HBM4 ramp.

因此，我們談到的與先進封裝中的晶片堆疊相關的測試強度增加 20％ 到 30％，我認為我們非常有信心，隨著我們經歷 HBM3 的早期階段並進入 HBM4 階段，這一數字將會保持下去。

Over time, as with anything, we see this in new nodes as well.

隨著時間的推移，就像任何事物一樣，我們也在新節點中看到這一點。

Customers accomplish the yield learning using products like ours, reducing the overall test intensity, improving their yields.

客戶使用我們的產品來完成產量學習，從而降低了整體測試強度，並提高了產量。

And so we would expect it to go down over time.

因此我們預計它會隨著時間的推移而下降。

But I think we're pretty confident in increased test intensity as all the different yield reduction modes associated with die stacking are worked through in HBM and in the logic space as well.

但我認為我們對提高測試強度非常有信心，因為與晶片堆疊相關的所有不同產量降低模式都是在 HBM 和邏輯空間中解決的。

On the numbers, HBM in the fourth quarter was approximately $10 million, as you said, maybe a little bit more of the $36 million of DRAM revenue.

從數字上看，第四季度的 HBM 收入約為 1000 萬美元，正如您所說，可能比 DRAM 收入 3600 萬美元略高一點。

And as we said in the prepared remarks, we expect that to increase around 50% sequentially.

正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們預計該數字將環比增長 50% 左右。

So up into the, call it mid-teens in the Q1 outlook.

因此，在第一季的展望中，我們可以將其稱為十幾歲的中段。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

David Duley, Steelhead.

大衛杜利 (David Duley)，Steelhead。

David Duley, you might have your phone on mute.

David Duley，你的手機可能處於靜音狀態。

Yeah, you're right.

是的，你說得對。

Thanks.

謝謝。

I noticed the foundry and logic revenue was down and it looks it's similar decline that we saw in the revenue out of geographic region of Taiwan.

我注意到代工和邏輯產品的收入下降了，而且看起來與我們在台灣地區以外地區看到的收入下降類似。

I was just wondering if you can make some more elaborate comments about that?

我只是想知道您是否可以對此做出更詳細的評論？

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And my second question is could you remind us what percentage of the overall DRAM market uses MEMS-based probe cards?

我的第二個問題是，您能否提醒我們整個 DRAM 市場中有多少比例使用基於 MEMS 的探針卡？

And I think you mentioned that all the high-bandwidth memory stuff is going to be on MEMS.

我記得您提到過，所有高頻寬記憶體都將採用 MEMS。

Does the growth in high-bandwidth memory really benefit you guys since you're a MEMS-based provider?

作為一個 MEMS 供應商，高頻寬記憶體的成長真的對你們有益嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I'll take the second one first.

我先選擇第二個。

The DRAM wafer probe market is almost entirely MEMS-based.

DRAM 晶圓探測市場幾乎完全基於 MEMS。

Us and our primary Japanese competitor in high-end DRAM, really the only way to build these probe cards, which tests the entire wafer at once and have approximately 100,000, 150,000 individual contacts on them.

我們和我們在高階 DRAM 領域的主要日本競爭對手實際上是製造這些探針卡的唯一方法，它可以一次測試整個晶圓，並且晶圓上有大約 100,000 到 150,000 個獨立觸點。

The only way to do that in a cost-effective and high-quality way and deliver the speed performance, the high-power performance is with immense technology.

以經濟高效和高品質地實現這一目標，並提供速度性能和高功率性能的唯一方法是利用先進的技術。

And so I don't view HBM in and of itself as a headwind or a tailwind for MEMS adoption, considering we're already largely adopted with MEMS and DRAM.

因此，考慮到我們已經廣泛採用了 MEMS 和 DRAM，我並不認為 HBM 本身是 MEMS 應用的阻力或順風。

But the requirements, as we talked about in the prepared remarks, are more stringent.

但正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的，要求更加嚴格。

And so it increases, one, the value to our customers.

因此，首先，它增加了我們客戶的價值。

It also increases our competitive differentiation on things like speed -- high-speed performance and thermal scaling.

它還增強了我們在速度（高速性能和熱擴展）等方面的競爭差異。

And so it's not purely a MEMS adoption story, but really a raising of the bar of the existing MEMS probe card for HBM, which as Shai commented, helps our gross margins in the segment a little bit.

因此，這不僅僅是一個 MEMS 採用的故事，而是真正提高了現有 HBM MEMS 探測卡的標準，正如 Shai 所說，這對我們在該領域的毛利率有一定幫助。

On the foundry and logic observation, if you recall back on our previous call, we had a very strong third quarter with some of our major foundry and logic customers, and in particular in the foundry space, delivered high volumes of two high performance -- probe cards for high-performance compute projects.

關於代工和邏輯觀察，如果您回想一下我們之前的電話會議，您會發現，我們與一些主要的代工和邏輯客戶在第三季度表現非常強勁，特別是在代工領域，為高效能運算專案交付了大量兩種高效能探測卡。

And those are in a digestion mode right now.

目前這些正處於消化模式。

So the inference you've drawn is correct.

所以你得出的推論是正確的。

It also ties to the expectations we said on the previous call about some digestion in the foundry space as we go through Q4 and now Q1.

這也與我們在上次電話會議上所說的預期相關，即在經歷第四季度和現在的第一季後，代工領域將會出現一些消化的情況。

And just as my follow on, you talked about in your prepared comments, I think someplace about you saw unusually strong demand in DDR5.

正如我在後面所提到的，您在準備好的評論中提到，我認為您周圍某個地方看到了對 DDR5 異常強勁的需求。

Is that associated with a specific end market?

這是否與特定的終端市場有關？

Or could you just maybe just elaborate further on that particular comment?

或者您能否進一步詳細說明該特定評論？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sure.

當然。

The overall DRAM guidance, as we said, our outlook is that we're going to approach the levels that we approached in the middle part of 2021.

正如我們所說，對於整體 DRAM 指導，我們的展望是，我們將接近 2021 年中期的水平。

So somewhere in the low-$40 millions of quarterly DRAM revenue.

因此季度 DRAM 收入大概在 4,000 萬美元左右。

And that's composed -- you can do the math from the previous question-and-answer session.

這就是－你可以根據先前的問答環節來計算。

You can do the math on how much of that is HBM, which leaves you with some pretty solid growth associated with non-HBM memory.

您可以計算其中有多少是 HBM，從而得出非 HBM 記憶體具有相當穩健的成長趨勢。

But yeah, we're seeing DDR5 for both mobile and server/PC applications be pretty strong in the first quarter.

但是，是的，我們看到第一季行動和伺服器/PC應用的 DDR5 表現相當強勁。

I want to be clear that we're not calling a DRAM upturn at this point.

我想明確表示，我們現在還不能稱之為 DRAM 的好轉。

It's pretty concentrated on a couple of designs and mostly at one customer.

它主要集中於幾種設計，並且主要針對同一客戶。

But it is an interesting indication of our customers beginning to invest in new designs because we know DRAM is cyclical and we know it's going to turn at some point.

但這是一個有趣的跡象，表明我們的客戶開始投資新設計，因為我們知道 DRAM 具有周期性，我們知道它在某個時候會發生轉變。

So this represents some investments in them getting ready for the ramp when it does turn.

因此，這代表他們在坡道轉彎時要進行一些準備投資。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

(操作員指示) Krish Sankar，TD Cowen。

Yeah, hi.

是的，你好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I have two of them.

我有兩個。

First one, if I look at your guidance, I'm just curious about -- Mike or Shai, you said foundry and logic revenue is flat, HBM grows 50%, and overall DRAM revenue is approaching peak levels in Q2 of '21, which is $42 million.

首先，如果我看一下您的指導，我只是很好奇 - Mike 或 Shai，您說代工和邏輯收入持平，HBM 增長 50%，並且整體 DRAM 收入在 21 年第二季度接近峰值水平，即 4200 萬美元。

And DDR5 is growing too.

DDR5 也在成長。

But if I do the math, it looks like HBM as a percentage of DRAM revenues is going to be higher in March versus in the December quarter.

但如果我計算一下，看起來 3 月 HBM 佔 DRAM 收入的百分比將比 12 月季度更高。

So why is gross margin still lower?

那麼為什麼毛利率仍然較低呢？

Shouldn't gross margin be better than December then?

那麼毛利率不是應該比12月更好嗎？

Well, let's not forget the systems segment, right?

好吧，我們不要忘記系統部分，對吧？

I did talk about the call that systems segment is expected to go down in Q4.

我確實談到了系統部門預計第四季將出現下滑的預測。

And as you recall, our systems segment gross margin is historically higher.

大家還記得，我們​​的系統部門毛利率歷來較高。

So we're going to have less favorable mix between systems and probes.

因此，系統和探測器之間的組合將會不太有利。

And that's another driver that pushes gross margin a little lower than Q4.

這是導致毛利率比第四季略低的另一個因素。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

And then I just had two other quick questions.

然後我還有另外兩個簡短的問題。

Mike, if we look at the HBM share, you've clearly done a great job in HBM3 3E versus HBM1 and 2.

麥克，如果我們看一下 HBM 份額，那麼與 HBM1 和 2 相比，你在 HBM3 3E 方面顯然做得非常出色。

I'm just curious, do you expect the momentum to continue next year or so when we get into HBM4 and beyond?

我只是好奇，當我們進入 HBM4 及以後時，您是否預計這種勢頭會在明年左右繼續下去？

Yeah, Krish.

是的，克里什。

I think we see the same progression of test complexity.

我認為我們看到了測試複雜性的相同進展。

That really shifts competitive advantage towards us as we move from HBM3 to 4.

當我們從 HBM3 轉向 4 時，這確實將競爭優勢轉移到我們這邊。

I think one of the obvious ones is it's a higher -- more die being stacked.

我認為其中一個明顯的原因就是堆疊的晶片數量更多。

And that clearly, as we look at customers test strategies, as I said in the prepared remarks, they're not just probing each individual component die, but they're probing the stack as they build it up.

顯然，當我們研究客戶的測試策略時，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，他們不僅探測每個單獨的組件晶片，而且還在構建堆疊時探測堆疊。

And so higher stacks probably mean less yield, but also probably mean higher test complexity, higher test intensity as we move to HBM4.

因此，當我們轉向 HBM4 時，更高的堆疊可能意味著更低的產量，但也可能意味著更高的測試複雜性、更高的測試強度。

In addition, obviously, the clock speeds go up, the densities go up.

此外，顯然時鐘速度加快了，密度也提高了。

And so those are all good trends.

這些都是好的趨勢。

And I think it's one of the things where we're spending a good fraction of our R&D budget on making sure we can continue to drive that capability roadmap forward and serve the increased complexity of HBM4 and derive some competitive advantage from it.

我認為這是我們花費很大一部分研發預算來確保我們能夠繼續推動該能力路線圖向前發展並滿足 HBM4 日益增加的複雜性並從中獲得一些競爭優勢的原因之一。

If I go back to your initial comment that Shai answered, actually the mix between regular DRAM and HBM DRAM in the low-40s is nominally the same as it was in Q4.

如果我回顧 Shai 最初回答的評論，實際上 40 年代初期的常規 DRAM 和 HBM DRAM 之間的混合名義上與第四季度相同。

So that's one of the reasons why you're not seeing a margin uplift associated with DRAM.

這就是您沒有看到 DRAM 利潤率上升的原因之一。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

Another quick clarification, I think Brian asked this on the China, of the divestment.

另一個快速澄清是，我認為布萊恩問的是有關中國撤資的問題。

To the multi-nationals in China, is that still going to go through the Grand Junction stemming, or is it going to be directly from FORM?

對於在中國的跨國公司來說，是否仍要透過大樞紐來處理，還是直接從FORM來處理？

No.

不。

Yeah, no.

是的，不。

Because the multi-nationals that operate in the region are global customers for FormFactor, they are not part of this distribution agreement.

由於在該地區營運的跨國公司是 FormFactor 的全球客戶，因此它們不屬於該分銷協議的一部分。

FormFactor will continue to support those customers in a global way; and where we need local resources, we'll contract those things out.

FormFactor 將繼續以全球方式支援這些客戶；當我們需要本地資源時，我們就會將其外包出去。

But you can think of the multi-nationals, which historically has been the vast majority of our China revenue, continue to be managed by FormFactor and are not part of the distribution arrangement.

但你可以想想，跨國公司，從歷史上看，它們一直是我們中國收入的絕大部分，仍然由 FormFactor 管理，並且不屬於分銷安排的一部分。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you very much, Mike.

非常感謝，麥克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Krish.

謝謝，克里什。

Tom Diffely, D.A. Davidson.

湯姆·迪菲利（Tom Diffely），地區檢察官戴維森。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you and good afternoon.

謝謝您，下午好。

I guess first of all, when you look at the memory thing, you talked about some next-generation DRAM chips.

我想首先，當您查看記憶體問題時，您會談到一些下一代 DRAM 晶片。

Are you seeing anything on the flash side, any next-generation flash chips that require new designs?

您在快閃記憶體方面是否看到任何需要新設計的下一代快閃記憶體晶片？

Tom, as I think you know, our flash market share and consequently our flash revenue is pretty minimal compared to DRAM.

湯姆，我想你知道，與 DRAM 相比，我們的快閃記憶體市場份額以及快閃記憶體收入都非常小。

It's a market where the requirements are not that challenging from a speed or density perspective, which is really where we derive competitive advantage and why we're strong in DRAM.

這個市場對速度或密度的要求並不那麼高，這正是我們獲得競爭優勢的地方，也是我們在 DRAM 領域中實力雄厚的原因。

Flash, because of die sizes, because of test speeds, because of things like built-in self-test of the chips, really hard to drive a competitive advantage.

由於晶片尺寸、測試速度以及晶片內建自檢等因素，快閃記憶體很難帶來競爭優勢。

So we do have some share there.

所以我們在那裡確實佔有一定份額。

But as you can tell from our historical financial results, it's not significant.

但從我們的歷史財務結果可以看出，這並不重要。

We do see some new designs, but given my statement about our market share, we don't have the broad view of the flash market that would allow us to make the same kind of observations we can in DRAM.

我們確實看到了一些新的設計，但根據我對我們的市場份額的陳述，我們對快閃記憶體市場沒有廣泛的了解，因此無法做出與 DRAM 相同的觀察。

Having said that, I think the general view when we talk to customers and other suppliers is that flash is probably going to trail DRAM in terms of recovery, that inventories are still high and pricing is not where it should be to drive an upturn.

話雖如此，我認為，當我們與客戶和其他供應商交談時，普遍的觀點是，閃存在復甦方面可能會落後於 DRAM，因為庫存仍然很高，而且定價還不足以推動復甦。

But we are continuing to be opportunistic in the flash market, and where we can differentiate with speed and/or capability, we're taking advantage of them.

但是，我們仍在快閃記憶體市場中不斷尋找機會，只要我們能夠透過速度和/或能力實現差異化，我們就會充分利用它們。

Okay.

好的。

And would you expect your flash share to go up over time, given the acquisition you made a couple of years ago of some technology there?

鑑於您幾年前收購了一些快閃記憶體技術，您是否預計您的快閃記憶體份額會隨著時間的推移而上升？

Or is it kind of in this segment or in this range for a bit?

或者它有點處於這個段或這個範圍內嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

I think it's in this range for a bit.

我認為它在這個範圍內一點。

So the acquisition you're talking about, we acquired Advantest probe card businesses a few years ago or business a few years ago.

所以您談到的收購，我們幾年前收購了 Advantest 探針卡業務或業務。

And if you remember, we primarily did that, although it is a flash test platform, a flash probe card platform.

如果你還記得的話，我們主要做的是這個，儘管它是一個閃存測試平台，一個閃存探測卡平台。

We primarily did it because it feeds elements of our DRAM roadmap that we're now in the final qualification stages at with a key customer.

我們這樣做主要是因為它為我們的 DRAM 路線圖提供了元素，目前我們正與一個關鍵客戶進行最後的資格認證階段。

That will help us from an overall market share perspective, at least at that customer.

從整體市場份額的角度來看，這將有助於我們，至少對該客戶而言是如此。

So we, again, acquired it more for the DRAM capability, although being engaged in flash does help you work out the bugs at a lower complexity level.

因此，我們再次收購它更多是為了獲得 DRAM 功能，儘管參與快閃記憶體確實可以幫助您在較低的複雜程度下解決問題。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And the follow-up, Shai, when you look at the target model going from where we were in 2023 to the target model, like 700 basis points of margin improvement, is most of that just coming from overhead absorption or there are some cost reduction programs that need to take place?

接下來，Shai，當您查看目標模型時，從 2023 年的水平到現在的目標模型，例如 700 個基點的利潤率提高，其中大部分是否僅來自間接費用吸收，還是需要實施一些成本削減計劃？

I would say three things.

我想說三件事。

One is volume.

一是數量。

Yes, as you pointed out, we have been adding capacity.

是的，正如您所指出的，我們一直在增加產能。

So we need volume to go up to fully utilize this capacity and improve absorption and utilization.

因此，我們需要增加產量來充分利用這一產能，並提高吸收和利用率。

The second element is mix.

第二個要素是混合。

We expect the growth from where we are today to our target model to come mostly from foundry and logic, which is an area that has a higher gross margin.

我們預計，從目前的狀況到目標模式的成長主要來自於代工和邏輯，因為這些領域的毛利率較高。

And the third component is the cost reductions.

第三個要素是降低成本。

We have few initiatives across the company and some task forces to improve our gross margins, focusing on costs, things like automation and vertical integration, more efficient production.

我們整個公司都採取了一些措施並成立了一些工作小組來提高我們的毛利率，重點是成本、自動化和垂直整合以及更有效率的生產等。

And these things also expect to contribute on our way to reach the target model of 47%.

這些因素也有望為我們實現 47% 的目標做出貢獻。

Okay.

好的。

Would you say that overhead absorption is the biggest factor?

您是否認為間接費用吸收是最大的因素？

I would say it's distributed equally between the three components.

我想說它在三個組件之間均勻分佈。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Appreciate your time today.

感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Christian Schwab, Craig Hallum Capital.

克里斯蒂安‧施瓦布 (Christian Schwab)、Craig Hallum Capital。

Great.

偉大的。

Mike, on the DRAM business and the 50% sequential revenue growth, is that driven by your current lead customer or is that the expansion starting to ramp with the second customer?

Mike，關於 DRAM 業務和連續 50% 的收入成長，這是由您當前的主要客戶推動的，還是隨著第二個客戶的出現而開始加速擴張？

Yeah.

是的。

When you break down the increase, it really is driven by our lead HBM customer, who also leads the overall HBM market in share.

如果細細分析這一成長，就會發現它實際上是由我們的主要 HBM 客戶推動的，該客戶也在整個 HBM 市場中佔據領先地位。

So that's the primary driver.

所以這是主要驅動因素。

I did -- it's probably a subtlety, but I did in the prepared remarks say that we expect revenue from all three major DRAM manufacturers in HBM.

我確實說過 — — 這可能是一個微妙的說法，但我在準備好的評論中確實說過，我們預計三家主要 DRAM 製造商的 HBM 收入都會增加。

So there's engagements for those.

因此，這些都是有約定的。

But when we think about the Q1 step up, it's very much driven by our lead customer.

但當我們考慮第一季的成長時，我們發現這很大程度上是由我們的主要客戶推動的。

It's a key 2024 strategic objective for us to make sure that we capitalize on HBM growth that all major DRAM manufacturers.

確保利用所有主要 DRAM 製造商的 HBM 成長是我們的 2024 年關鍵策略目標。

And I think we're making some pretty good progress with that.

我認為我們在這方面取得了相當大的進展。

Once you have all three, how big could the high-bandwidth memory portion of the business be?

一旦擁有了這三者，業務的高頻寬記憶體部分會有多大？

Yeah, it's a good question.

是的，這是個好問題。

So I think we'll stick with the idea that our HBM revenue in 2024 on a quarterly basis could double from the quarterly run rate that we had in 2023.

因此，我認為我們會堅持這樣的想法，即 2024 年我們的 HBM 季度收入可能比 2023 年的季度運行率翻一番。

And the reason for that is it's a little difficult right now to sort out how much double-counting is going on in terms of forecasting between the different suppliers of HBM DRAM, our customers.

原因在於，目前很難釐清 HBM DRAM 的不同供應商（即我們的客戶）在預測方面有多少重複計算。

I think if you back out the forecast and add them all together, the growth assumptions are probably there's some double-counting in there.

我認為，如果你撤回預測並將它們全部加在一起，成長假設中可能會有一些重複計算。

So I think the expectation that we communicated on the last call and through some of the investor conferences as we've gone through the back part of the year and to start 2024 of the HBM run rate doubling on a quarterly basis from where it was in 2023, the right expectation.

因此，我認為，我們在上次電話會議和一些投資者會議上傳達的預期，隨著我們度過今年下半年，到 2024 年開始，HBM 的運行率將從 2023 年的水平逐季度翻一番，這是正確的預期。

And then you can see in Q1, we've made some good steps towards that.

然後您可以看到，在第一季度，我們朝著這個目標邁出了一些很好的步伐。

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And the foundry and logic business, leading manufacturers of chips, whether it's Intel or AMD or TSM, are kind of pretty optimistic regarding aggregate unit growth and the huge volume markets of PCs and smartphones.

而代工和邏輯業務、領先的晶片製造商，無論是英特爾、AMD 還是 TSM，都對總單位成長以及個人電腦和智慧型手機的龐大市場非常樂觀。

They're just not all that enthusiastic about it in March, but they are as we go throughout the course of the year.

他們在三月對此並不那麼熱衷，但隨著我們一年四季的推進，他們仍然熱情高漲。

And given some of the new design ramps and new chips coming to market throughout the course of the year, is it logical that that business exits the year at a $100 million-plus run rate again?

考慮到今年將有一些新的設計和新的晶片上市，該業務在今年結束時再次以 1 億美元以上的營業額結束，這合乎邏輯嗎？

Yeah, I think you've identified the key drivers for it.

是的，我認為你已經找到了關鍵驅動因素。

Certainly, in the first part of the year, whether you look at our Q1 guidance, extrapolate what some of those customers in the high-unit volume markets like PCs and handsets are conveying, there's some optimism associated with the second half, given our visibility, right?

當然，在今年上半年，無論您是否看我們的第一季指引，推斷個人電腦和手機等高銷售市場中的一些客戶的反應，考慮到我們的可見性，下半年會有一些樂觀情緒，對嗎？

Remember that probe cards have lead times well within a quarter, much less than a quarter.

請記住，探針卡的交貨時間在一個季度之內，遠遠少於一個季度。

And so our direct visibility doesn't extend anywhere close to that.

所以我們的直接可見範圍還遠遠沒有達到這個程度。

But I think the combination of inventories being at much healthier levels and probably now a balance between output at these key customers and the actual sell through, that's now been resolved.

但我認為，庫存水準更加健康，而且現在這些主要客戶的產出和實際銷售之間可能已經達到平衡，這個問題現在已經解決。

So that puts things in a better place.

這樣，事情就會變得更好。

And I think if there's some in-demand pick up in these large unit volume markets like PCs and handsets in the second half, we should see some growth there, but it's beyond our visibility, beyond the headlines.

我認為，如果下半年個人電腦和手機等大批量市場的需求有所回升，我們應該會看到一些成長，但這超出了我們的視野，也超出了頭條新聞的範圍。

What I would say to close that topic is when I compare things to a year ago and people were optimistic about a second-half recovery in 2023, I feel like the industry is in much better shape from an inventory and production and capacity standpoint a year later here in the first part of 2024.

最後我想說的是，當我將情況與一年前進行比較時，人們對 2023 年下半年的復甦持樂觀態度，但我覺得從庫存、生產和產能的角度來看，一年後，即 2024 年上半年，該行業的狀況要好得多。

Great.

偉大的。

And then I'll just slip in one more question if I can.

如果可以的話，我再問一個問題。

You've been working on the qualification with a potential large customer for some time, I think a few quarters anyway, I guess.

您已經與潛在的大客戶合作了一段時間的資格認證，我想無論如何有幾個季度了。

Is there any update on where we sit with that?

目前我們的進展如何？

And do you feel better about that?

你覺得好點了嗎？

Do you feel better about potential timing of that?

您是否對於該潛在時機感覺更好？

Any update?

有什麼更新嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

We don't have a huge update for you, but we have talked about this in the past.

我們沒有為您帶來重大的更新，但我們過去已經討論過這個問題。

Obviously, the large fabless microprocessor and GPU customer is a place where we do not have significant share.

顯然，在大型無晶圓廠微處理器和 GPU 客戶中，我們並沒有佔據很大的份額。

And given our strategy of diversification, different customers, different markets, that's an important place for us to qualify and hold a significant share position, especially given their leadership in some of the end markets.

考慮到我們的多元化策略、不同的客戶和不同的市場，這對我們來說是一個獲得資格並保持重要份額的重要位置，特別是考慮到他們在某些終端市場的領導地位。

We have made some -- as you know, we've been at this for a while.

我們已經做了一些——如你所知，我們已經做了一段時間了。

We have made some changes in how we're resourcing that.

我們對資源配置方式做出了一些改變。

The good news is the customer has a clear two-suppliers strategy.

好消息是客戶有明確的雙供應商策略。

And there's really only two suppliers that can do this, and FormFactor is one of them.

而實際上只有兩家供應商可以做到這一點，FormFactor 就是其中之一。

So it's really up to us to improve our execution and get there.

因此，我們確實需要提高執行力並實現這一目標。

I'm confident that we can qualify at least in 2024.

我相信我們至少能在 2024 年獲得參賽資格。

That will take a while to build into a significant share and revenue position, but we're setting the groundwork now, and it's a very important objective for some key people at FormFactor in 2024.

要建立起重要的份額和收入地位還需要一段時間，但我們現在正在打基礎，對於 FormFactor 2024 年的一些關鍵人物來說，這是一個非常重要的目標。

Great.

偉大的。

No other questions.

沒有其他問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Christian.

謝謝，克里斯蒂安。

(Operator Instructions) Craig Ellis, B. Riley Securities.

（操作員指示） Craig Ellis，B. Riley Securities。

Yeah, thanks for taking the questions.

是的，感謝您回答這些問題。

So, Mike, hard to believe there could be even more DRAM questions, but there was some new ones I wanted to better understand.

因此，麥克，很難相信還會有更多有關 DRAM 的問題，但有一些新的問題我想更了解。

As we look at high bandwidth memory here in the first quarter, understandable that it's ramping given what's going on more broadly.

當我們在第一季觀察高頻寬記憶體時，考慮到更廣泛的情況，可以理解它的成長。

But the question is this, as you look at the mix of your high-bandwidth memory exposure in 1Q from high-bandwidth memory 3 to potentially 3E, which I think really launches commercially on a system in 2Q, and high-bandwidth memory 4, which I think everybody expects to come out in early 2025.

但問題是這樣的，當你看第一季高頻寬記憶體暴露的組合時，從高頻寬記憶體 3 到潛在的 3E，我認為它會在第二季真正在系統上商業化推出，而高頻寬記憶體 4，我認為每個人都預計它會在 2025 年初問世。

How much of the mix in 1Q is 3 versus 3E and 4 and to the extent we're not really generating revenue on the other two, when would you expect that to hit?

在第一季的產品組合中，3E 與 3E 和 4 的比例是多少？

Yeah, there actually is a little bit of revenue on 3.

是的，3 確實有一點收入。

So most of the production volume, as you'd note, is on third generation or HBM3.

因此，正如您所注意到的，大部分生產量都是第三代或 HBM3。

But 3E, the mini step, we are shipping probe cards in some significant volume.

但是 3E，即小步驟，我們正在大量運送探針卡。

I don't have that mix off the top of my head, but I guess it's something like two-thirds HBM3, one-third HBM3E, and then a sprinkling of HBM4 in early R&D shipments.

我還沒有想出這個混合方案，但我猜它是三分之二的 HBM3、三分之一的 HBM3E，然後在早期研發出貨量中加入少量的 HBM4。

Yeah.

是的。

And then part of that, just so I don't offend the moderator with too many questions, there's growing chatter that in PCs, we could see a format change from

然後，為了不讓主持人問太多問題，有越來越多的人討論說，在個人電腦上，我們可以看到格式從

[SO-DINS to LP-CANS].

[SO-DINS 至 LP-CANS]。

And I don't know if that has any impact on probe card intensity, but are you seeing anything on the personal computer side that would drive up probe card intensity that's AI related?

我不知道這是否會對探測卡強度產生影響，但您是否看到個人電腦方面有任何東西會提高與 AI 相關的探測卡強度？

I don't think so, Craig.

我不這麼認為，克雷格。

I think those format changes, especially that's two steps downstream from us in the integration when they get integrated into the package and then into the module.

我認為這些格式會發生變化，特別是在整合過程中距離我們下游的兩個步驟，即當它們被整合到包中然後整合到模組中時。

I don't anticipate that having -- and we, of course, interact with the die at the wafer level.

我並不認為會有這種情況——當然，我們會在晶圓級與晶片進行互動。

I don't anticipate that would have a significant impact.

我不認為這會產生重大影響。

What we really need is a PC refresh cycle to drive unit volume increases of PC.

我們真正需要的是PC更新周期來推動PC單位產量的成長。

Yeah, I hear you on that one.

是的，我了解你的意思。

And then for the second question, typically, I think in the first half of the year, the business within foundry and logic would start to benefit and have a sine wave relative to an APU program at a large foundry.

對於第二個問題，通常我認為在上半年，代工和邏輯業務將開始受益，並且相對於大型代工廠的 APU 專案呈現正弦波。

Is everything on track there?

那裡一切順利嗎？

And do you still expect to hold the same share that you've historically had there?

您是否仍期望持有與過去相同的份額？

Yeah, I think so.

是的，我認為是這樣。

It's going to be an interesting year with -- in the foundry business, a lot more high-performance compute than just the application processor, although I think the application processor projects in the foundry space generally continue to be big middle-of-the-year drivers of revenue.

這將是充滿趣味的一年，在代工業務中，高效能運算遠不止於應用處理器，儘管我認為代工領域的應用處理器專案通常會繼續成為年中收入的主要推動力。

Those are key customers and very important focus areas for us as we move through 2024.

這些都是我們 2024 年的關鍵客戶，也是我們關注的重點領域。

They're one element of the overall diversification strategy we talked about, right?

它們是我們討論的整體多元化策略的一個要素，對嗎？

The DRAM's running pretty hard right now; HBM, not so surprisingly; but DDR5 being, as I said in the prepared remarks, a bit surprising given where we are in the DRAM cycle.

DRAM 現在運作得相當辛苦； HBM，這並不奇怪；但正如我在準備好的發言中所說，考慮到我們處於 DRAM 週期的哪個階段，DDR5 有點令人驚訝。

But it's exactly a case study of why we've put these different businesses together to try and produce a relatively stable top-line demand profile, so that we can weather this sub cyclicality and continue to invest in things like R&D for competitive differentiation and capacity.

但這正是一個案例研究，說明了為什麼我們將這些不同的業務整合在一起，試圖產生一個相對穩定的頂線需求概況，以便我們能夠抵禦這種亞週期性，並繼續投資於研發等方面，以實現競爭差異化和產能。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Appreciate the help.

感謝您的幫助。

Thanks, Craig.

謝謝，克雷格。

David Silver, C.L. King & Associates.

大衛·西爾弗（David Silver），C.L.金及其同事。

Yeah.

是的。

Hi, thank you.

你好，謝謝。

I'd like to ask maybe a strategic question regarding capital deployment at this point in time.

我想問一個有關當前資本部署的策略問題。

So, Mike, with the sale of the metrology business, I mean, you kind of had to make a strategic decision not to invest to grow that business.

所以，麥克，對於計量業務的出售，我的意思是，你必須做出一個策略決策，不投資來發展該業務。

And I don't believe the Livermore capacity -- you have some extra capability at Livermore now.

我不相信利弗莫爾的容量——利弗莫爾現在有一些額外的能力。

So when I look at your balance sheet, I mean it's certainly highly liquid.

因此，當我查看你的資產負債表時，我認為它的流動性肯定很高。

Could you just maybe discuss some of your thoughts about the highest and best use for that, what you would call may be incremental or excess portion of your cash?

您能否討論一下關於這筆資金的最高和最佳用途的一些想法，您稱之為現金的增量或超額部分？

In other words, does vertical integration either forward or back make sense?

換句話說，垂直整合無論是向前或向後都有意義嗎？

Are there parts of your global footprint that you could profitably expand?

您的全球業務中，有哪些部分是可以擴大並實現獲利的？

Or would there be something from the equity investment that your large competitor received recently that maybe requires a countermove or some kind step to retain or maintain your competitive balance?

或者，您的大型競爭對手最近獲得的股權投資是否需要您採取反擊或某種措施來維持或保持競爭平衡？

But sitting here with a highly liquid balance sheet, what goes through your mind in terms of optimizing the use of at least a portion of that?

但是，面對這張流動性極強的資產負債表，您會如何考慮優化利用至少一部分資金呢？

Yeah, I'll let Shai talk through the details.

是的，我會讓 Shai 講詳細情況。

But I think in an environment where we still expect consolidation in the space, we don't think holding onto some cash, especially with decent returns, is a bad strategic move.

但我認為，在我們仍預期該領域將會出現整合的環境下，我們認為持有一些現金，尤其是持有可觀回報的現金，並不是一個糟糕的策略舉措。

We're going to need dry powder for M&A.

我們需要充足的資金來進行併購。

We continue to be believers in M&A and consolidation, not necessarily inside our served segments, but to expand our served available market.

我們始終相信併購與整合，不一定是在我們所服務的領域內，而是為了擴大我們所服務的可用市場。

And cash is a very useful asset to have.

現金是一種非常有用的資產。

So with that, I'll turn it over to Shai to talk a little bit about capital allocation priorities.

因此，我將把話題轉到 Shai 身上，讓他稍微談一談資本配置優先事項。

Right.

正確的。

Yeah.

是的。

So as Mike mentioned, our priorities really didn't change compared to what we communicated before.

正如麥克所提到的，與先前溝通相比，我們的優先事項確實沒有改變。

We're focusing on reinvesting in R&D.

我們專注於對研發進行再投資。

We're still investing in capacity, although we slowed it down recently, things like vertical integration that you mentioned and automation.

我們仍在對產能進行投資，儘管最近我們放慢了速度，例如您提到的垂直整合和自動化。

And we have the share repurchase program that I talked about.

我們有我之前談到的股票回購計畫。

We still have $75 million to invest in share repurchase, which is to offset dilution, and it's a two-year plan and it's been one quarter since we announced.

我們仍有 7500 萬美元用於投資股票回購，以抵消稀釋，這是一項為期兩年的計劃，自我們宣布以來已過去一個季度。

So we still have one year and three quarters to do that, and M&A.

因此，我們還有一年三個季度的時間來完成這項工作和併購。

And with the current interest rates and cost of capital, accumulating cash is aligned with our M&A strategy.

在當前利率和資本成本下，累積現金符合我們的併購策略。

If you look at our historical acquisitions, the MicroProbe acquisition in 2012, the Cascade Microtech acquisition back in 2016, we've been pretty good in creating value through our M&A activity and has been good steward of capital.

如果回顧我們的歷史收購，2012 年收購 MicroProbe，2016 年收購 Cascade Microtech，你會發現我們透過併購活動創造價值方面做得相當不錯，而且我們一直是資本的良好管理者。

Okay, that's great.

好的，太好了。

And I'll stop there.

我就講到這裡。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

(Operator Instructions) David Duley, Steelhead.

（操作員指示）David Duley，Steelhead。

Yeah.

是的。

I was just curious, are you comfortable with unit volume -- IC unit volume growth in the 6% to 8% range for 2024 for the foundry and logic segments?

我只是好奇，您是否對單位產量感到滿意——到 2024 年，代工和邏輯領域的 IC 單位產量增長率在 6% 到 8% 之間？

And if that's the case, do you guys think you can grow faster than that or slower than that as far as the market growth?

如果是這樣的話，你們認為就市場成長而言，你們的成長速度能比這更快還是更慢？

Yeah.

是的。

I think as we look, there's a lot of variance in different assumptions, specifically the second half of the year to drive growth.

我認為，從我們的角度來看，不同的假設有很大差異，特別是下半年推動成長的假設。

I think where we're more focused in our planning and forecasting and resourcing activities is on the first half, because I think there's enough different variables where, sure, you could see 6% to 8% growth, you could see more, you could see less.

我認為我們在規劃、預測和資源配置活動中更加關注的是上半年，因為我認為有足夠多不同的變量，當然，你可能會看到 6% 到 8% 的增長，可能會看到更多，也可能會看到更少。

And as I think most of you know, our visibility really doesn't extend into the second half.

我想大多數人都知道，我們的可見度其實並沒有延伸到下半年。

If you were to have that scenario, I do think there is a very good likelihood that we can outgrow the unit growth of the market, especially if the bulk of it is associated with advanced nodes and some of the high-volume markets like PCs and mobile.

如果發生這種情況，我確實認為我們很有可能超越市場單位成長，特別是如果其中大部分與先進節點和一些高容量市場（如個人電腦和行動裝置）相關。

And honestly, I don't see how you get to foundry and logic high-double digit unit growth without PC and handset growth in the second half of the year.

老實說，如果沒有下半年個人電腦和手機的成長，我不明白如何實現代工和邏輯部門高兩位數的單位成長。

So in that scenario, yeah, I think it's reasonable given the adoption of advanced packaging, given the increase of test intensity, that we can outgrow the market.

所以在這種情況下，是的，我認為考慮到先進封裝的採用，考慮到測試強度的增加，我們可以超越市場，這是合理的。

But I'm not sure I'd adopt that yet as a baseline scenario as we work our way through the first half.

但我不確定在我們進行上半場比賽時我是否會將其作為基準情景。

Fair enough.

很公平。

One final question.

最後一個問題。

I'm just curious from your point of view where you sit, you've talked a lot about increased intensity from advanced packaging, all sorts of FormFactors and whatnot.

我只是好奇，從您的角度來看，您談了很多關於先進封裝、各種 FormFactors 等等帶來的強度增加。

And I'm wondering -- and that's generally been with Intel and TSMC, frankly.

我很好奇——坦白說，這通常與英特爾和台積電有關。

I'm wondering if you're seeing that start to spread out onto the OSATs, because there's certainly a lot more chatter on their conference calls.

我想知道您是否看到這種情況開始蔓延到 OSAT，因為他們的電話會議上確實有更多的討論。

And I think ASC's CapEx is up more than 50% year over year this year focused on advanced packaging.

我認為 ASC 的資本支出今年同比增長了 50% 以上，重點是先進封裝。

And so I'm just wondering, are you starting to see a ramp up and middle part of the market for advanced packaging?

所以我只是想知道，您是否開始看到先進封裝市場的上升和中端部分？

And are you well positioned to capture OSAT business?

您是否已經做好準備，可以贏得 OSAT 業務？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So typically, the way the probe card market works is we have a very large installed base at the OSATs.

探測卡市場的典型運作方式是，我們在 OSAT 擁有非常龐大的安裝基礎。

But the OSATs often are not the purchaser of the probe cards.

但 OSAT 通常不是探針卡的購買者。

It's the fabless semiconductor manufacturers or the foundries themselves.

它是無晶圓廠半導體製造商或代工廠本身。

And so there's a lot of interaction with the OSATs, but they're often not issuing purchase orders to us.

因此，我們與 OSAT 有很多互動，但他們通常不會向我們發出採購訂單。

So I think for us, advanced packaging, if it happens at the OSATs, if it happens at the foundries, if it happens at the IDMs, all a good trend because it's going to drive up test intensity.

因此我認為對於我們來說，先進封裝，如果它發生在OSAT，如果它發生在代工廠，如果它發生在IDM，都是一個很好的趨勢，因為它將提高測試強度。

And if a fabless customer has adopted advanced packaging and they're going to do it at foundry or at the OSAT, that's going to drive higher test intensity at either of those places no matter what.

如果無晶圓廠客戶採用了先進的封裝技術，並且打算在代工廠或 OSAT 進行封裝，那麼無論如何，這都會在這兩個地方提高測試強度。

It's just a slightly different business model for us.

對我們來說，這只是一個略有不同的商業模式。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Krish Sankar, TD Cowen.

克里什·桑卡爾（Krish Sankar），TD Cowen。

Thank for taking my follow-up.

感謝您關注我的後續問題。

Mike, just a quick one.

麥克，我只想問一個簡單的問題。

It looks like the high-density GPU customers are finally evaluating MEMS-based probe cards.

看起來高密度 GPU 客戶最終正在評估基於 MEMS 的探針卡。

How to think about when that eval will be done?

如何思考何時完成該評估？

When to expect first revenues from them?

什麼時候能收到第一筆收入？

And if you can prognosticate, what do you think the market share between you and Technoprobe would be in that specific category?

如果您可以預測的話，您認為您和 Technoprobe 在該特定類別中的市佔率是多少？

Yeah.

是的。

I think as the leading GPU manufacturer adopts advanced packaging, that's really the discontinuity where they adopt MEMS probes.

我認為，隨著領先的 GPU 製造商採用先進的封裝，這確實是他們採用 MEMS 探頭的不連續性。

And it's an interesting case because of their large die sizes, they haven't really needed to adopt MEMS probes.

這是一個有趣的案例，由於他們的晶片尺寸較大，他們實際上並不需要採用 MEMS 探頭。

But as they move to the [COA's] advanced packaging technology, MEMS probes are an absolute must.

但隨著他們轉向[COA]先進的封裝技術，MEMS探頭是絕對必要的。

And so that's an opportunity, as you know, for us and our primary competitor in foundry and logic.

如您所知，這對我們以及我們在代工和邏輯領域的主要競爭對手來說是一個機會。

Those qualifications are happening right now.

這些資格認證正在進行中。

I think the -- and pilot production right now.

我認為—現在是試產。

I'd expect over time that to be an application and a customer where shares in this two-supplier window.

我希望隨著時間的推移，這將是一個應用程式和一個客戶，在這兩個供應商的視窗中共享。

We typically talk about it as a two-third, one-third.

我們通常稱之為三分之二、三分之一。

Most customers like to balance at 50-50, but there's often places where either us or our competitor have some degree of differentiation.

大多數客戶喜歡 50-50 的平衡，但我們或我們的競爭對手經常會存在一定程度的差異化。

And so it never quite works out to be 50-50.

所以，結果永遠不可能達到 50-50。

So I think you're going to start to see that in a significant way here in 2024.

因此我認為你將在 2024 年開始顯著地看到這一點。

But of course, still the majority of silicon from that customer is not going to be on advanced packaging.

但當然，該客戶的大部分矽片仍不會用於先進封裝。

That's a small, but very lucrative part of their overall product portfolio.

這是其整體產品組合中很小的一部分，但卻非常有利可圖。

I still expect monolithic GPUs, at least for 2024, to continue to stay on the legacy probe card technologies.

我仍然預計，至少到 2024 年，單片 GPU 將繼續採用傳統的偵測卡技術。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks a lot, Mike.

非常感謝，麥克。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, Krish.

謝謝，克里什。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program.

今天節目的問答環節到此結束。

I'd like to hand the program back to Mike Slessor for any further remarks.

我想將該計劃交還給邁克·斯萊瑟，以便他可以做出進一步的評論。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today, and we'll talk to you again at some point in the spring, if not at our next earnings call.

感謝大家今天的加入，如果不在下次財報電話會議上，我們將在春季的某個時候再次與你們交談。

Take care.

小心。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

該計劃確實結束了。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Good day.

再會。