FormFactor Inc (FORM) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to FormFactor's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call are Chief Executive Officer, Mike Slessor; and Chief Financial Officer, Shai Shahar. Before we begin, Stan Finkelstein, the company's VP of Investor Relations, will remind you of some important information.

謝謝並歡迎大家參加 FormFactor 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。出席今天電話會議的有首席執行官 Mike Slessor；和首席財務官 Shai Shahar。在我們開始之前，公司投資者關係副總裁 Stan Finkelstein 將提醒您一些重要信息。

Thank you. Today, the company will be discussing GAAP P&L results and some important non-GAAP results intended to supplement your understanding of the company's financials. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures and other financial information are available in the press release issued today by the company and on the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝。今天，公司將討論 GAAP 損益表結果和一些重要的非 GAAP 結果，旨在補充您對公司財務狀況的理解。公認會計準則與非公認會計準則衡量標準的對賬以及其他財務信息可在公司今天發布的新聞稿和我們網站的投資者關係部分中找到。

Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Examples of such forward-looking statements include those with respect to the projections of financial and business performance, future macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions; the benefits of acquisitions and investments in capacity and in new technologies; the impacts of global, regional and national health crisis including the COVID-19 pandemic; anticipated industry trends; potential disruptions in our supply chain; the impact of regulatory changes, including the recent U.S.-China trade restrictions; the anticipated demand for products; our ability to develop, produce and sell products; and the assumptions upon which the statements are based.

今天的討論包含聯邦證券法含義內的前瞻性陳述。此類前瞻性陳述的例子包括有關財務和業務業績、未來宏觀經濟和地緣政治狀況的預測；產能和新技術收購和投資的好處；全球、區域和國家健康危機（包括 COVID-19 大流行）的影響；預期的行業趨勢；我們的供應鏈可能出現中斷；監管變化的影響，包括最近的中美貿易限制；對產品的預期需求；我們開發、生產和銷售產品的能力；以及陳述所依據的假設。

These statements are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed during this call. Information on risk factors and uncertainties is contained in our most recent filing on Form 10-K with the SEC for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2022, and in our other SEC filings, which are available on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov and in our press release issued today. Forward-looking statements are made as of today, August 2, 2023, and we assume no obligation to update them.

這些陳述受到已知和未知的風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中表達的結果存在重大差異。有關風險因素和不確定性的信息包含在我們最近向 SEC 提交的截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日財年的 10-K 表格以及我們其他 SEC 文件中，這些文件可在 SEC 網站 www.sec 上獲取。政府和我們今天發布的新聞稿。前瞻性陳述截至今天，即 2023 年 8 月 2 日，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

With that, we will now turn the call over to FormFactor's CEO, Mike Slessor.

現在，我們將把電話轉給 FormFactor 的首席執行官 Mike Slessor。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. FormFactor's second quarter revenue was below our outlook range due to shipment push-outs. However, higher-than-expected gross margin and good operating expense control produced non-GAAP earnings per share at the top end of our outlook range. We continue to operate in an overall demand environment that remains relatively stable. This is evident from our third quarter outlook.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。由於出貨量推遲，FormFactor 第二季度收入低於我們的預期範圍。然而，高於預期的毛利率和良好的運營費用控制使得非公認會計原則每股收益處於我們展望範圍的上限。我們繼續在保持相對穩定的整體需求環境中運營。從我們第三季度的展望中可以明顯看出這一點。

As we navigate the current cyclical downturn, we continue to benefit from FormFactor's diversification strategy, which differentiates us from our direct competitors with a broad lab-to-fab product portfolio across Foundry and Logic, DRAM and Flash probe cards, together with our System segment products. This unique portfolio enables us to compete for business across diverse demand pools at all major customers, producing the relatively stable top line results we've demonstrated for the past several quarters, and that we expect again in the third quarter, as we explore growing areas like high-bandwidth memory and DRAM probe cards and co-packaged silicon photonics and systems, helping to offset the impact of areas that are presently soft, like mobile handsets and CPUs in Foundry and Logic probe cards.

在我們應對當前的周期性低迷時期，我們繼續受益於FormFactor 的多元化戰略，這使我們憑藉涵蓋代工和邏輯、DRAM 和閃存探針卡以及系統部門的廣泛實驗室到晶圓廠產品組合，從直接競爭對手中脫穎而出產品。這種獨特的產品組合使我們能夠在所有主要客戶的不同需求池中競爭業務，產生我們在過去幾個季度中展示的相對穩定的營收結果，並且隨著我們探索增長領域，我們預計在第三季度再次實現這一結果諸如高帶寬內存和DRAM 探針卡以及共同封裝的矽光子學和系統，有助於抵消目前軟性領域的影響，例如代工廠和邏輯探針卡中的手機和CPU 。

While the demand softness that has persisted for several quarters continues in some of our most important high unit volume end markets, like client PC and mobile, we're carefully balancing short-term results and long-term investments with disciplined cost control that maximizes quarterly profitability and protects our strong balance sheet. We continue to invest in R&D for new product innovation and competitive differentiation as well as in the long lead time facilities and equipment components of our capacity increase plans. These investments are designed to produce market share gains and above industry revenue and profit growth, when we emerge from the current cyclical trough, enabling FormFactor to achieve and then surpass the levels of our current target financial model.

雖然在我們一些最重要的大批量終端市場（例如客戶端PC 和移動設備）中，需求疲軟持續了幾個季度，但我們正在通過嚴格的成本控制來謹慎平衡短期業績和長期投資，以最大限度地提高季度收益盈利能力並保護我們強勁的資產負債表。我們繼續投資於新產品創新和競爭差異化的研發，以及產能增加計劃中的長交貨期設施和設備組件。這些投資旨在當我們擺脫當前的周期性低谷時，產生市場份額收益以及高於行業的收入和利潤增長，使 FormFactor 能夠實現並超越我們當前目標財務模型的水平。

Turning now to segment level details. In Foundry and Logic probe cards, our largest business, we experienced the expected moderation in demand in the second quarter, as customers digested first quarter shipments for initial production ramps of 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer mobile application processors, tile-based client microprocessors and high-performance compute chips. In the third quarter, we expect to deliver sequential growth in Foundry and Logic as we see modest strengthening in both mobile and client PC markets, primarily driven by adoption of advanced packaging processes like Foveros and 3D Fabric.

現在轉向分段級別的詳細信息。在我們最大的業務代工和邏輯探針卡中，我們在第二季度經歷了預期的需求放緩，因為客戶消化了第一季度的出貨量，以實現5 納米和3 納米移動應用處理器、基於區塊的客戶端微處理器的初始產量提升和高性能計算芯片。在第三季度，我們預計 Foundry 和 Logic 業務將實現環比增長，因為我們看到移動和客戶端 PC 市場都略有增強，這主要是由於採用 Foveros 和 3D Fabric 等先進封裝工藝所推動的。

Advanced packaging and chiplet innovations were prominently featured at the recent Semicon West industry trade show, where a variety of major front and back-end suppliers along with leading customers highlighted the increasing role advanced packaging and chiplets are playing in reaccelerating industry innovation in the face of the slowing of front-end-driven Moore's law.

先進封裝和小芯片創新在最近的Semicon West 行業貿易展上佔據了顯著位置，各種主要前端和後端供應商以及領先客戶都強調了先進封裝和小芯片在重新加速行業創新方面所發揮的日益重要的作用。前端驅動的摩爾定律放緩。

As we've noted in the past, advanced packaging integration schemes drive both higher test intensity, which expands the number of probe cards required for good die out and higher test complexity, which raises the performance requirements for each probe card. Probe card architectures like FormFactor's MEMS technology are essential to meeting these challenging performance requirements on short lead times at a compelling cost of ownership.

正如我們過去所指出的，先進的封裝集成方案推動了更高的測試強度（這增加了良好裸片所需的探針卡的數量）和更高的測試複雜性（這提高了每個探針卡的性能要求）。 FormFactor 的 MEMS 技術等探針卡架構對於在較短的交貨時間內以極具吸引力的擁有成本滿足這些具有挑戰性的性能要求至關重要。

In Memory, as expected, we experienced stronger second quarter demand for DRAM probe cards, while Flash remained weak. The sequential increase in DRAM was driven almost entirely by DDR5 and third-generation high-bandwidth memory designs that are enabling the rapid growth in generative artificial intelligence. DDR5 and HBM together more than offset the softness from each of the memory manufacturers' reductions in wafer starts that are helping consume the high inventory of older memory designs like DDR4.

在內存方面，正如預期的那樣，我們第二季度對 DRAM 探針卡的需求強勁，而閃存仍然疲軟。 DRAM 的連續增長幾乎完全是由 DDR5 和第三代高帶寬內存設計推動的，這些設計促進了生成人工智能的快速增長。 DDR5 和 HBM 共同抵消了各內存製造商減少晶圓開工帶來的疲軟，這有助於消耗 DDR4 等舊內存設計的高庫存。

HBM is yet another example of how advanced packaging is enabling the industry's innovation and long-term growth since one HBM chip is a stack of 8, 12 or even 16 individual DRAM die. To ensure high yields of this stacked DRAM chip, customers probe and test each component DRAM die prior to stacking and probe and test a multi-die DRAM stack at various points during the stacking process, leading to an increase in the overall probe card intensity for good die out.

HBM 是先進封裝如何促進行業創新和長期增長的又一個例子，因為一個 HBM 芯片是由 8 個、12 個甚至 16 個獨立 DRAM 芯片組成的堆棧。為了確保這種堆疊式 DRAM 芯片的高良率，客戶在堆疊之前探測和測試每個組件 DRAM 芯片，並在堆疊過程中的不同點探測和測試多芯片 DRAM 堆疊，從而提高了整體探針卡強度好死了。

In addition, the technical requirements for HBM tests are significantly more advanced than for standard unstacked DRAM products, involving higher test feeds and more challenging thermal scaling specifications. As one example of increased test complexity, the 100,000 MEMS probes on a single HBM probe card let's remain within a few microns of their target position across an entire 300-millimeter wafer, as the wafer temperature varies by almost 100 degrees.

此外，HBM 測試的技術要求比標準非堆疊 DRAM 產品先進得多，涉及更高的測試饋送和更具挑戰性的熱縮放規格。作為測試複雜性增加的一個例子，單個HBM 探針卡上的100,000 個MEMS 探針讓我們在整個300 毫米晶圓上的目標位置保持在幾微米的範圍內，因為晶圓溫度變化了近100 度。

FormFactor's MEMS based SmartMatrix DRAM probe card architecture meets these advanced requirements, providing significant value to our customers and differentiation for FormFactor. We believe our superior performance capabilities will drive both market share and profitability gains as HBM grows from a current single-digit percentage of DRAM wafer starts to 20% by 2026, as projected in a recent Wall Street Journal article.

FormFactor 基於 MEMS 的 SmartMatrix DRAM 探針卡架構滿足了這些先進要求，為我們的客戶提供了巨大的價值，並為 FormFactor 帶來了差異化優勢。我們相信，正如《華爾街日報》最近的一篇文章所預測的那樣，到2026 年，HBM 在DRAM 晶圓中所佔的比例將從目前的個位數百分比增長到20%，我們卓越的性能能力將推動市場份額和盈利能力的增長。

Shifting now to Systems. Our Systems business continues to deliver strong results with revenue at near-record levels again in the second quarter. These levels were, however, less than we expected in our outlook due to some delivery pushouts caused by a combination of customer facilities' readiness delays, single-point supplier issues and internal first pass yield shortfalls. We expect these systems to be shipped in the current third quarter, and we expect to again deliver strong Systems' segment revenues in the quarter. The strength is driven by our market-leading test and measurement products for early development of applications like co-packaged silicon photonics, quantum computing and advanced packaging metrology.

現在轉向系統。我們的系統業務繼續取得強勁業績，第二季度收入再次接近歷史最高水平。然而，由於客戶設施的準備延遲、單點供應商問題和內部首次合格率不足等綜合因素導致一些交付推遲，這些水平低於我們的預期。我們預計這些系統將在當前第三季度發貨，並且我們預計該季度將再次實現強勁的系統部門收入。我們市場領先的測試和測量產品推動了這一優勢，這些產品用於共同封裝矽光子、量子計算和先進封裝計量等應用的早期開發。

Co-packaged optics enabled by silicon photonics continues to be an important and exciting driver for FormFactor's current and future business. This technology is poised to revolutionize chip-to-chip communication in the data center, with significantly reduced power consumption at high speed, driving industry forecasts of 30-plus percent growth rates for silicon photonics devices over the next several years.

由矽光子學實現的共封裝光學器件仍然是 FormFactor 當前和未來業務的重要且令人興奮的驅動力。這項技術有望徹底改變數據中心的芯片到芯片通信，顯著降低高速功耗，推動行業預測未來幾年矽光子器件的增長率超過 30%。

In the transition from early R&D to low-volume production, customers are deploying FormFactor's turnkey electrooptical measurement systems built on our CM300 and Summit 200 engineering probers with subsystems from leading partners like Keysight Technologies and PI. As production volumes increase over the next several years, our product road map delivers both systems and consumable probe cards to test and improve yields of electrooptical silicon photonics chips, enabling our customers to seamlessly transition their co-packaged optics devices from the lab to the fab, ramping quickly to high volumes to meet the demand for these revolutionary and innovative devices.

在從早期研發到小批量生產的過渡過程中，客戶正在部署FormFactor 的交鑰匙電光測量系統，該系統基於我們的CM300 和Summit 200 工程探針台以及來自Keysight Technologies 和PI 等領先合作夥伴的子系統。隨著未來幾年產量的增加，我們的產品路線圖提供系統和消耗品探針卡來測試和提高電光矽光子芯片的產量，使我們的客戶能夠將其共同封裝的光學器件從實驗室無縫過渡到工廠，迅速增加產量，以滿足對這些革命性和創新設備的需求。

Finally, I want to share an important customer highlight from the second quarter. FormFactor was 1 of only 6 suppliers to receive the exclusive Intel Epic Program Outstanding Supplier Award for 2023. This award recognizes the absolute top performers in the Intel supply chain for their dedication to continuous quality improvement, performance, collaboration and inclusion over the past year. I'm extremely proud of the Global FormFactor team for the dedication and performance that resulted in this top-tier recognition from Intel, and I'd like to take this opportunity to thank and congratulate our world-class team.

最後，我想分享第二季度的一個重要客戶亮點。 FormFactor 是僅有的6 家獲得2023 年英特爾Epic 計劃傑出供應商獎的供應商之一。該獎項旨在表彰英特爾供應鏈中絕對錶現出色的供應商，以表彰他們在過去一年中致力於持續質量改進、性能、協作和包容性。我對 Global FormFactor 團隊的奉獻精神和出色表現感到非常自豪，他們獲得了英特爾的頂級認可，我想藉此機會感謝並祝賀我們的世界級團隊。

In closing, let me reiterate that in the short term, we continue to be encouraged by the stabilization of demand across our diversified product and technology portfolio as we progress through the cyclical challenges of 2023. Over the longer term, we remain excited and confident in the growth prospects for FormFactor and the industry overall, driven by the fundamental trends of semiconductor content growth and innovations, like chiplets and co-packaged silicon photonics.

最後，讓我重申，短期內，隨著我們在應對 2023 年的周期性挑戰的過程中，我們多元化產品和技術組合的需求穩定，我們將繼續受到鼓舞。從長遠來看，我們仍然對在半導體內容增長和創新（如小芯片和共同封裝矽光子學）的基本趨勢的推動下，FormFactor 和整個行業的增長前景。

These are trends where FormFactor is well positioned as an industry and technology leader, and we're confident that our commitment to invest in R&D and capacity will position FormFactor to emerge from the current cyclical downturn a stronger and leaner competitor, enabling us to achieve our target model, deliver $2 of non-GAAP earnings per share on $850 million of revenue.

在這些趨勢中，FormFactor 處於行業和技術領導者的有利地位，我們相信，我們對研發和產能的投資承諾將使FormFactor 從當前的周期性衰退中脫穎而出，成為更強大、更精簡的競爭對手，使我們能夠實現我們的目標目標模型，在 8.5 億美元的收入中實現 2 美元的非 GAAP 每股收益。

Shai, over to you.

謝伊，交給你了。

Thank you, Mike, and good afternoon. As you saw in our press release, and as Mike mentioned, Q2 revenues were slightly below the low end of our outlook range, non-GAAP gross margin was above the high end of the range and non-GAAP EPS was at the high end of the range. Second quarter revenues were $156 million, a 6.9% sequential decrease from our first quarter revenues and a year-over-year decrease of 23.5% from our Q2 '22 near-record quarterly revenues. Q2 revenues were $1 million below the low end of our outlook range due to pushouts of shipments in our Systems segment. Probe card segment revenues were $115.3 million in the second quarter, a decrease of $12 million or 9.4% from Q1. The decrease was driven by lower Foundry and Logic and Flash revenues, partially offset by an increase in DRAM revenues.

謝謝你，邁克，下午好。正如您在我們的新聞稿中看到的，正如邁克提到的，第二季度收入略低於我們展望範圍的低端，非GAAP 毛利率高於該範圍的高端，非GAAP 每股收益處於我們展望範圍的高端。範圍。第二季度收入為 1.56 億美元，比第一季度收入環比下降 6.9%，比 2022 年第二季度接近創紀錄的季度收入同比下降 23.5%。由於我們系統部門的出貨量推遲，第二季度收入比我們預期範圍的低端低 100 萬美元。第二季度探針卡部門收入為 1.153 億美元，比第一季度減少 1200 萬美元，降幅為 9.4%。這一下降是由於晶圓代工和邏輯以及閃存收入下降造成的，但部分被 DRAM 收入的增長所抵消。

The Systems segment continues to operate at near-record levels and revenues were $40.6 million in Q2, a $0.5 million increase from the first quarter, and comprised 26% of total company revenues, slightly up from 24% in Q1. Within the probe card segment, Q2 Foundry and Logic revenues were $81.9 million, a 19% decrease from Q1. Foundry and Logic revenues decreased to 53% of total company revenues compared to 61% in the first quarter. DRAM revenues were $30.5 million in Q2, $10.7 million or 54% higher than in the first quarter and increased to 20% of total quarterly revenues as compared to 12% in the first quarter. Flash revenues of $2.9 million in Q2 were $3 million lower than in the first quarter and over 2% of total revenue in Q2 as compared to 4% in Q1.

系統部門繼續以接近歷史最高水平運營，第二季度收入為 4060 萬美元，比第一季度增加 50 萬美元，占公司總收入的 26%，略高於第一季度的 24%。在探針卡領域，第二季度代工和邏輯收入為 8190 萬美元，比第一季度下降 19%。代工和邏輯收入占公司總收入的比例從第一季度的 61% 下降至 53%。第二季度 DRAM 收入為 3050 萬美元，比第一季度增加 1070 萬美元，即 54%，佔季度總收入的比例也從第一季度的 12% 增加到 20%。第二季度閃存收入為 290 萬美元，比第一季度減少 300 萬美元，佔第二季度總收入的 2% 以上，而第一季度為 4%。

GAAP gross margin for the second quarter was 38.7% as compared to 36.5% in Q1. Cost of revenues included $3 million of GAAP to non-GAAP reconciling items, which we outlined in our press release issued today and in the reconciliation table available in the Investor Relations section of our website. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin for the second quarter was 40.6%, 2.2 percentage points higher than the 38.4% non-GAAP gross margin in Q1 and 110 basis points above the high end of our outlook range. Both segments gross margins were higher than Q1 gross margin and higher than forecasted with a more significant upside in the Probe card segment.

第二季度 GAAP 毛利率為 38.7%，而第一季度為 36.5%。收入成本包括 300 萬美元的 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調節項目，我們在今天發布的新聞稿以及我們網站投資者關係部分提供的調節表中對此進行了概述。按非 GAAP 基準計算，第二季度毛利率為 40.6%，比第一季度 38.4% 的非 GAAP 毛利率高 2.2 個百分點，比我們預期範圍的上限高出 110 個基點。這兩個部門的毛利率均高於第一季度的毛利率，也高於預測，其中探針卡部門的上升空間更為顯著。

Our Probe card segment gross margin was 36.5% in the second quarter, an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to 34.3% in Q1. The increase from Q1 is due to the net effect of 3 main factors: First, 600 basis points of the increase relates to improved factory utilization and lower manufacturing spending. The improved factory utilization, even at lower revenue levels, relates to higher manufacturing activity near the end of the quarter.

第二季度探針卡業務毛利率為36.5%，較第一季度的34.3%增長2.2個百分點。較第一季度的增長歸因於 3 個主要因素的淨效應：首先，增長 600 個基點與工廠利用率提高和製造支出降低有關。即使收入水平較低，工廠利用率的提高也與季度末製造業活動的增加有關。

Second, 90 basis points of the increase relates mainly to reduced excess and obsolete inventory reserves. Partially offsetting these 2 positive factors was 400 basis points related to lower revenue and a less favorable product mix with lower Foundry and Logic revenues and higher Memory revenues. Our Q2 Systems segment gross margin was 52%, 30 basis points higher than the 51.7% gross margin in the first quarter, reflecting slightly higher revenue and the more favorable product mix.

其次，90個基點的增長主要與超額和陳舊庫存儲備的減少有關。部分抵消了這兩個積極因素的是 400 個基點，這些因素與較低的收入和不太有利的產品組合以及較低的代工和邏輯收入以及較高的內存收入有關。我們第二季度系統部門的毛利率為 52%，比第一季度的 51.7% 毛利率高出 30 個基點，反映出收入略有增加和更有利的產品組合。

Our GAAP operating expenses were $61.6 million for the second quarter as compared to $61 million in the first quarter. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the second quarter were $52.1 million or 33.4% of revenues as compared with $51.2 million or 30.6% of revenues in Q1. The $0.9 million increase relates to G&A expenses specific to Q2, partially offset by lower performance-based compensation.

我們第二季度的 GAAP 運營費用為 6160 萬美元，而第一季度為 6100 萬美元。第二季度非 GAAP 運營費用為 5,210 萬美元，佔收入的 33.4%，而第一季度為 5,120 萬美元，佔收入的 30.6%。 90 萬美元的增長與第二季度特有的一般管理費用有關，但部分被基於績效的薪酬降低所抵消。

Company noncash expenses for the second quarter included $9.2 million for stock-based compensation, $2.7 million for the amortization of acquisition-related intangibles and depreciation of $7.5 million, all at similar levels to the first quarter. GAAP operating loss was $1.3 million for Q2 compared with GAAP operating income of $0.1 million in Q1. Non-GAAP operating income for the second quarter was $11.2 million compared with $13.2 million in the first quarter.

第二季度公司非現金支出包括 920 萬美元的股票薪酬、270 萬美元的收購相關無形資產攤銷和 750 萬美元的折舊，均與第一季度的水平相似。第二季度 GAAP 運營虧損為 130 萬美元，而第一季度 GAAP 運營收入為 10 萬美元。第二季度非 GAAP 營業收入為 1,120 萬美元，而第一季度為 1,320 萬美元。

GAAP net income for the second quarter was $0.8 million, or $0.01 per fully diluted share compared with a GAAP net income of $1.3 million or $0.02 per fully diluted share in the previous quarter. The non-GAAP effective tax rate for the second quarter was 14.2%, similar to the 13.9% in the first quarter. We expect our annual non-GAAP effective tax rate to be between 13% and 17%. Second quarter non-GAAP net income was $11.2 million or $0.14 per fully diluted share compared to $12.5 million or $0.16 per fully diluted share in Q1.

第二季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 80 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.01 美元，而上一季度 GAAP 淨利潤為 130 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.02 美元。第二季度非公認會計準則有效稅率為 14.2%，與第一季度的 13.9% 相似。我們預計年度非 GAAP 有效稅率將在 13% 至 17% 之間。第二季度非 GAAP 淨利潤為 1,120 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.14 美元，而第一季度為 1,250 萬美元，或完全稀釋每股 0.16 美元。

Moving to the balance sheet and cash flows. We generated free cash flow of $2.1 million in the second quarter compared to a negative free cash flow of $7.3 million in Q1. Cash provided by operating activities in Q2 was $22.5 million, $10.2 million higher than the $12.3 million in Q1. The main reason for the increase in cash provided by operating activities is improved working capital management.

轉向資產負債表和現金流量。第二季度我們產生了 210 萬美元的自由現金流，而第一季度的自由現金流為負 730 萬美元。第二季度經營活動提供的現金為 2250 萬美元，比第一季度的 1230 萬美元增加了 1020 萬美元。經營活動提供的現金增加的主要原因是營運資金管理的改善。

We invested $20.5 million in capital expenditures during the second quarter compared to $19.7 million in Q1. With the core drivers underpinning our strategy still in place, we continue to execute on increasing our long lead time facilities and equipment portions of our capacity increase plans, albeit replacing equipment in service at a slow rate to ensure capacity does not significantly outpace demand. Accordingly, we are updating our expected CapEx for 2023 to range between $55 million and $65 million, $5 million higher than the previously communicated range.

第二季度我們投資了 2050 萬美元的資本支出，而第一季度為 1970 萬美元。由於支撐我們戰略的核心驅動因素仍然存在，我們繼續執行增加產能增加計劃中的長交貨期設施和設備部分，儘管以緩慢的速度更換在役設備，以確保產能不會顯著超過需求。因此，我們將 2023 年的預期資本支出更新為 5500 萬美元至 6500 萬美元之間，比之前通報的範圍高出 500 萬美元。

Overall, at quarter end, total cash and investments were $240 million, similar to Q1. As of the end of the second quarter, we had 1 term loan remaining with a balance totaling $50 million. Regarding stock buyback. During the second quarter, we did not purchase additional shares under our $75 million 2-year buyback program. At Q2 quarter end, $18.6 million remained available for future repurchases.

總體而言，截至季度末，現金和投資總額為 2.4 億美元，與第一季度類似。截至第二季度末，我們尚有 1 筆定期貸款，餘額總計 5000 萬美元。關於股票回購。在第二季度，我們沒有根據 7500 萬美元的兩年期回購計劃購買額外的股票。截至第二季度末，仍有 1,860 萬美元可用於未來回購。

Turning to the third quarter non-GAAP outlook. We expect Q3 revenues to be higher than in Q2 with higher Systems and Foundry and Logic revenues. This results in a Q3 revenue outlook of $167 million, plus or minus $5 million. Third quarter non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 40%, plus or minus 150 basis points. At the midpoint of these outlook ranges, we expect Q3 operating expenses to be $53 million, plus or minus $1 million. Non-GAAP earnings per fully diluted share for Q3 is expected to be $0.17, plus or minus $0.04. A reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP Q3 outlook is available on the Investor Relations section of our website and in our press release issued today.

轉向第三季度非公認會計原則展望。我們預計第三季度的收入將高於第二季度，系統、代工和邏輯收入更高。這導致第三季度收入前景為 1.67 億美元，上下浮動 500 萬美元。第三季度非 GAAP 毛利率預計為 40%，上下浮動 150 個基點。在這些展望範圍的中點，我們預計第三季度運營費用為 5300 萬美元，上下浮動 100 萬美元。第三季度完全攤薄後的非公認會計準則每股收益預計為 0.17 美元，上下浮動 0.04 美元。我們網站的投資者關係部分和今天發布的新聞稿中提供了我們的公認會計準則與非公認會計準則第三季度展望的調節表。

With that, let's open the call for questions. Operator?

接下來，讓我們開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Krish Sankar of Cowen.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Krish Sankar。

First one for Shai. It seems like the mix is skewing more towards Foundry and Logic in September quarter, but the gross margin seems flattish. I would like to know what's going on there? Because I thought the Foundry and Logic has a better gross margin than DRAM. And I'm going to have a follow-up for Mike.

第一個是給Shai的。 9 月份季度的組合似乎更多地偏向 Foundry 和 Logic，但毛利率似乎持平。我想知道那裡發生了什麼事？因為我認為Foundry和Logic的毛利率比DRAM更好。我將為邁克進行後續報導。

Sure. Thanks, Krish. I want to start with -- we've talked before about expecting high 30s gross margin at the current revenue level. So we are obviously encouraged by the Q2 results and by the Q3 gross margin outlook of around 40% at the midpoint of this outlook. So we expect gross margin to increase to low 40s once we achieve quarterly revenues of about $180 million on our way to our target model of 47% of revenue levels, around $200 million, $210 million, as we demonstrated a year ago, right, with a record revenue, and we expect the gross margin to fluctuate along this trend line as we make progress.

當然。謝謝，克里什。我想首先——我們之前討論過在當前收入水平下預計毛利率將達到 30 多美元。因此，我們顯然對第二季度的業績和第三季度的毛利率前景感到鼓舞，該前景的中值約為 40%。因此，一旦我們實現季度收入約1.8 億美元，達到收入水平47% 的目標模型（約2 億美元、2.1 億美元），我們預計毛利率將增至40 多美元，正如我們一年前所展示的那樣，對吧，創紀錄的收入，隨著我們取得進展，我們預計毛利率將沿著這一趨勢線波動。

Specifically for Q3, gross margin as compared to Q2, the mix impact is actually expected to be flat once you go down to 1 level below the segment revenue. The impact of the higher revenue versus the second quarter is expected to be offset by a return to normal factory utilization after strong manufacturing activity during the second quarter of Q2 for Q3 shipments. Also, we expect some higher material costs in Q3 as compared to Q2.

特別是對於第三季度的毛利率，與第二季度相比，一旦下降到低於部門收入 1 級，混合影響實際上預計將持平。在第二季度第三季度出貨量強勁的製造活動之後，預計第二季度收入增加的影響將被工廠利用率恢復正常所抵消。此外，我們預計第三季度的材料成本將高於第二季度。

Got it. And then a bigger picture question for Mike. Thanks for the color on HBM. When I look at GPUs, historically, it looks like they use legacy probe card technology, but with AI and CoWoS, it seems like they need to use MEMS. So I'm just kind of curious, A, is that true? If so, kind of when are you expecting to see the benefit and how to kind of like quantify the revenue opportunity set for FormFactor as we go into MEMS-based probe card technology for CoWoS?

知道了。然後是邁克的一個更大的問題。感謝 HBM 上的顏色。當我觀察 GPU 時，從歷史上看，它們似乎使用傳統的探針卡技術，但對於 AI 和 CoWoS，它們似乎需要使用 MEMS。所以我只是有點好奇，A，這是真的嗎？如果是這樣，當我們進入 CoWoS 的基於 MEMS 的探針卡技術時，您預計什麼時候會看到好處以及如何量化 FormFactor 的收入機會？

Krish, good question, and I agree with the underlying assumptions in it. Historically, the leading GPU manufacturer has used legacy non-advanced probe card technologies and hasn't needed a MEMS probe card from us or our major competitor. As you know, that's changing with the adoption of CoWoS and advanced packaging. And both of us are in the middle of qualifying MEMS-based technologies for these advanced packages for these CoWoS technologies. It's a relatively modest number of wafer starts at this stage, which I think you know. So hopefully, this trend continues. This growth in AI certainly is expected to continue, and we'll be able to see that as a more significant part of our 2024 revenue as the MEMS adoption associated with the CoWoS technology for GPUs really takes hold, and we see that ramp in more significant volume.

克里什，好問題，我同意其中的基本假設。從歷史上看，領先的 GPU 製造商一直使用傳統的非先進探針卡技術，並且不需要我們或我們的主要競爭對手提供的 MEMS 探針卡。如您所知，隨著 CoWoS 和先進封裝的採用，這種情況正在發生變化。我們雙方都在為這些 CoWoS 技術的先進封裝驗證基於 MEMS 的技術。現階段晶圓啟動數量相對較少，我想您也知道這一點。因此，希望這種趨勢能夠持續下去。人工智能的這種增長肯定會持續下去，我們將能夠看到，隨著與GPU 的CoWoS 技術相關的MEMS 的採用真正佔據主導地位，我們將能夠看到它成為我們2024 年收入的一個更重要的部分，而且我們看到更多的增長數量巨大。

Our next question comes from the line of Vedvati Shrotre of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Vedvati Shrotre。

My first question, I guess, last earnings call, you talked about seeing very strong design activity and the volumes were muted. And then can you just compare and contrast how this has changed this quarter? In terms of design activity, has that increased significantly from last time what you saw in either volumes starting to come back now that AMD and Intel are noting recovery in their PC business?

我想，我的第一個問題是，在上次財報電話會議上，您談到了看到非常強勁的設計活動，但銷量卻很低。然後您可以比較和對比本季度的變化嗎？就設計活動而言，由於 AMD 和英特爾注意到其 PC 業務的複蘇，您在這兩卷中看到的設計活動是否比上次大幅增加？

Yes. So -- go ahead.

是的。所以請繼續。

Sorry, I have a follow-up after that.

抱歉，之後我還有後續行動。

All right. So design starts and design activity, we're seeing similar levels as we have for the past couple of quarters. Remember that a probe card is specific to each customer chip design. And so as customers release their new designs, they work closely with our design teams to customize the probe card architecture to meet the specific test requirements they have for that chip design. And as we've noted in the past couple of quarters, we've got a very robust design activity where -- but not shipping very many probe cards units on each new NPI.

好的。因此，設計開始和設計活動，我們看到的水平與過去幾個季度相似。請記住，探針卡特定於每個客戶的芯片設計。因此，當客戶發布新設計時，他們會與我們的設計團隊密切合作，定制探針卡架構，以滿足他們對該芯片設計的特定測試要求。正如我們在過去幾個季度所指出的，我們開展了非常穩健的設計活動，但並未在每個新 NPI 上運送太多探針卡單元。

In an upturn, we might expect to shift tens or even hundreds to meet the production ramp, now we're shipping a few. And this is really a dynamic that most of our customers are adapting to as they try and consume the inventory that they have on their balance sheets, that the channel has of their parts. Obviously, they don't want to obsolete this inventory by overwhelming it with new designs. And so we're seeing a nice setup as that inventory does get consumed, where these new designs that we've already qualified and are ready to ship in volume, will then refill the channel.

在經濟好轉時，我們可能會轉移數十甚至數百個來滿足產量增長，現在我們正在運送一些。這確實是一種動態，我們的大多數客戶在嘗試消耗資產負債表上的庫存（渠道擁有的零件）時正在適應這種動態。顯然，他們不想通過新的設計來淘汰這個庫存。因此，我們看到了一個很好的設置，因為庫存確實被消耗了，我們已經合格並準備批量發貨的這些新設計將重新填充渠道。

But as you know, there's a few green shoots in some areas like client PC. I don't expect a rapid turn there. I don't expect a rapid turn in mobile, but I do think we're well positioned, and we are seeing a little bit of increased activity. I wouldn't say the situation on design versus units has substantially changed from previous quarters.

但如您所知，在某些領域（例如客戶端 PC）出現了一些萌芽。我預計那裡不會出現快速轉變。我預計移動領域不會出現快速轉變，但我確實認為我們已經處於有利位置，並且我們看到活動有所增加。我不會說設計與單位的情況與前幾個季度相比有很大變化。

Got it. And then on the HBM side. So can you help me understand how -- maybe your largest customer on HBM has talked about their revenues doubling in 2 quarters. How does that translate to your business? Like going forward in the second half of 2023, do you think the DRAM portion of your business would be much bigger than where it is now? Or is that kind of coming in?

知道了。然後是 HBM 方面。那麼您能否幫我了解一下，也許您在 HBM 上最大的客戶談到了他們的收入在兩個季度內翻了一番。這對您的業務有何影響？就像 2023 年下半年一樣，您認為您的 DRAM 業務部分會比現在大得多嗎？或者是這樣的進來？

The second quarter is a pretty good example of the strength in HBM. As we said in the prepared remarks, most of the increase we saw was really attributable to HBM, some to DDR5 as well. If you look at from Q2 to Q3 -- sorry, from Q1 to Q2, we grew the DRAM revenue by about 50%. Almost all of that growth comes from HBM. So you're seeing that already.

第二季度是 HBM 實力的一個很好的例子。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們看到的大部分增長實際上歸因於 HBM，也有一些歸因於 DDR5。如果你看一下第二季度到第三季度——抱歉，從第一季度到第二季度，我們的 DRAM 收入增長了大約 50%。幾乎所有增長都來自 HBM。所以你已經看到了。

We do expect continued strength there as we go through 2023, but there will be some digestion. I wouldn't expect it to double again in the third quarter, for example, from an HBM perspective. But it's great -- considering how commodity DRAM or non-HBM DRAM is still relatively weak in working through some significant inventories that are still on our customers' balance sheets and then the channel, HBM is an awfully nice growth vector to be exposed to right now.

我們確實預計 2023 年將繼續走強，但也會有一些消化。例如，從 HBM 的角度來看，我預計第三季度該數字不會再次翻倍。但這很棒- 考慮到商品DRAM 或非HBM DRAM 在處理仍在我們客戶的資產負債表和渠道上的一些重要庫存方面仍然相對較弱，HBM 是一個非常好的增長向量，可以接觸到正確的機會現在。

Our next question comes from the line of Charles Shi of Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自李約瑟公司的查爾斯·史（Charles Shi）。

Thank you allowing me to ask a couple of questions. I want to ask about the gross margin. I'm glad to see margins back to the 40s range -- has been for Q2 and going to be for Q3 after -- I know we have a few quarters of margins in the 30s range. Are you comfortable to really call maybe that low-margin period like in the 30s, it's kind of behind us and going forward maybe we will be able to maintain at above 40s kind of gross margin?

謝謝您允許我問幾個問題。我想問一下毛利率。我很高興看到利潤率回到了 40 多美元的範圍——第二季度是這樣，之後的第三季度也是如此——我知道我們有幾個季度的利潤率在 30 多美元的範圍內。您真的可以放心地稱之為 30 年代那樣的低利潤時期嗎？它已經過去了，展望未來，也許我們將能夠維持在 40 年代以上的毛利率？

Yes. So the 2 main factors that influence gross margin at this point are revenue levels and mix. I answered the previous question by repeating what we said before that in order to gross margin to increase to the low 40s, call it, 42%, 43%, we need quarterly revenue to go up to around $180 million. And in order to get back to the 47%, at our target model gross margin like we did a year ago, we need revenues to grow to $200 million and $210 million. And we also made this growth to come from our higher-margin markets, which is mainly Foundry and Logic.

是的。因此，目前影響毛利率的兩個主要因素是收入水平和組合。我通過重複我們之前所說的話回答了上一個問題，為了將毛利率提高到 40 多歲，稱之為 42%、43%，我們需要季度收入達到 1.8 億美元左右。為了像一年前一樣恢復到 47% 的目標模型毛利率，我們需要收入增長到 2 億美元和 2.1 億美元。我們還使這種增長來自於利潤率較高的市場，主要是代工廠和邏輯市場。

Now along this trend line that I just described where we are now with, let's call it, 40% to 47%, if revenue stays at these levels and mix remains similar, we should be able to maintain this trend line that I was talking about, but we do expect to continue and experience fluctuations along that trend line.

現在，沿著我剛剛描述的趨勢線，我們現在可以稱之為 40% 到 47%，如果收入保持在這些水平並且組合保持相似，我們應該能夠維持我所說的這條趨勢線，但我們確實預計會繼續沿著該趨勢線經歷波動。

Maybe the other question, I'm glad to see some strength on DRAM probe card. Well, certainly, I was not expecting it to bounce back to $30-plus million for the quarter this soon. Maybe just a question for Mike. Originally, we were expecting maybe it's going to take a let down in the middle part of 2023, but now we're not quite seeing that, although you did provide some more cautionary statement around, okay, maybe it's not going to go 50% higher next quarter. But really just wanted to understand, this $30-plus million for the quarter, do you think this is going to be a sustainable quarterly run rate for your DRAM business going forward or maybe some fluctuation will get us back to the 20s range?

也許是另一個問題，我很高興看到 DRAM 探針卡上的一些優勢。嗯，當然，我沒想到這個季度它會這麼快反彈到 30 多萬美元。也許只是問邁克一個問題。最初，我們預計它可能會在 2023 年中期有所下降，但現在我們並沒有完全看到這一點，儘管您確實提供了一些更多的警告聲明，好吧，也許它不會下降 50%下個季度更高。但我真的只是想了解，這個季度的 30 多萬美元，您認為這對於您的 DRAM 業務來說是一個可持續的季度運行率，還是可能一些波動會讓我們回到 20 多歲的範圍？

It's an interesting question, Charles. And maybe to come at it from a different direction. Our DRAM probe card business right now is really the tale of 2 submarkets. One, which is very strong that we talked about in the prepared remarks and have touched on here in Q&A is HBM driven by generative AI, right? I think everybody understands the connection where HBM is one of the key enabling semiconductor components along with the GPU for generative AI. And so we're seeing some very strong growth there.

這是一個有趣的問題，查爾斯。也許是從不同的方向來解決這個問題。我們的 DRAM 探針卡業務目前實際上是兩個子市場的故事。一，我們在準備好的發言中談到並在問答中提到的非常強大的一點是由生成式人工智能驅動的 HBM，對嗎？我認為每個人都了解 HBM 與 GPU 一起作為生成人工智能的關鍵支持半導體組件之一的聯繫。因此，我們看到那裡出現了非常強勁的增長。

The other part of the DRAM business, sort of legacy DDR4, low-power DDR4 is really very weak, right? And if I were to estimate it for you, the second quarter revenue was composed for DRAM almost 1/3 in HBM. We've never seen that kind of contribution level from HBM before. And an initial ramp like that, HBM is still only probably 5% of industry-wide DRAM wafer starts, projected to grow significantly over the next couple of years. It's going to be a little bit lumpy on the way there.

DRAM 業務的另一部分，即傳統 DDR4、低功耗 DDR4 確實非常弱，對嗎？如果我給你估計一下，第二季度的收入由 DRAM 組成，幾乎 1/3 是由 HBM 組成的。我們以前從未見過 HBM 做出如此大的貢獻。按照這樣的初始增長速度，HBM 仍可能僅佔全行業 DRAM 晶圓開工量的 5%，預計在未來幾年內將大幅增長。去那裡的路上會有點顛簸。

If we can get both components of DRAM healthy and active, if you had HBM on top of the, if you like, commodity or legacy DRAM, then I think you've got the opportunity for DRAM probe card revenues and DRAM probe card spending intensity to drive up significantly. But I'd expect some lumpiness on the way there.

如果我們能讓DRAM 的兩個組件保持健康和活躍，如果您將HBM​​ 置於商品或傳統DRAM 之上（如果您願意的話），那麼我認為您將有機會獲得DRAM 探針卡收入和DRAM探針卡支出強度大幅提升。但我預計去那裡的路上會有些顛簸。

May I ask a quick follow-up. So the standard DRAM sounds like roughly $20 million each -- was from the standard DRAM, it was kind of like in line with the Q1 numbers. Do you think that's really probably the cyclical bottom level run rate there? Because I did notice that was probably the case historically for FormFactor's DRAM business over there.

我可以要求快速跟進嗎？因此，標準 DRAM 聽起來大約每台 2000 萬美元——來自標準 DRAM，這有點像第一季度的數字。您認為這真的可能是周期性底部運行率嗎？因為我確實注意到 FormFactor 的 DRAM 業務歷史上可能就是這種情況。

I think as long as DRAM continues to get healthy from an end market perspective -- you've heard all our customers talk about inventory starting to be consumed. They've taken down wafer starts. They're managing their way through this. As long as that continues, I think it's a reasonable assumption that the $20 million-ish level is the cyclical low for DRAM. We should see it build from there. And hopefully, we'll see continued growth associated with HBM and AI that will put another leg up on the overall DRAM market with our strong market share. I think you can extrapolate those into FormFactor's growth and results.

我認為，從終端市場的角度來看，只要 DRAM 繼續健康發展，您就會聽到我們所有的客戶都在談論庫存開始被消耗。他們已經取消了晶圓生產。他們正在設法解決這個問題。只要這種情況持續下去，我認為 2000 萬美元左右的水平是 DRAM 的周期性低點就是一個合理的假設。我們應該看到它從那裡開始構建。希望我們能夠看到與 HBM 和 AI 相關的持續增長，這將憑藉我們強大的市場份額在整個 DRAM 市場上佔據另一條腿。我認為您可以將這些推斷到 FormFactor 的增長和結果中。

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Ellis of B. Riley.

我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Craig Ellis。

As long as there's attention on high-bandwidth memory, given that surge, I'll go in with a few more. First, Mike, can you talk about your customer shipment diversity within high-bandwidth memory? Clearly, there's been one player that's led that market historically, another aspires to gain share, another is interested in getting product out. But where are we now with respect to customer shipments? And how should we think about the coming 2 to 4 quarters? And what will happen there from an OEM standpoint? And related to high-bandwidth memory, given how tight we are on supply, where is Form on being able to deliver for probe cards, when and where customers need them right now?

只要人們關注高帶寬內存，考慮到這種激增，我就會再增加一些。首先，邁克，您能談談高帶寬內存中客戶出貨量的多樣性嗎？顯然，歷史上有一個參與者一直引領著這個市場，另一個參與者渴望獲得份額，另一個參與者則有興趣推出產品。但我們現在的客戶發貨情況如何？我們應該如何看待未來2至4個季度？從 OEM 的角度來看會發生什麼？與高帶寬內存相關，考慮到我們的供應有多緊張，Form 能夠在何時何地為客戶提供探針卡？

So on the customer HBM side of the equation, I think for those of you who follow this market, you do understand that there's one pretty significant leader in terms of current market share of HBM. And it turns out that, that's a customer that has a very strong historical relationship with FormFactor and one where we have relatively high market share. So that's helping us right now. If you think about our engagements with the other 2 major DRAM manufacturers, I think they line up reasonably well with the share dynamics. We're active with each of them. We're engaged with each of them. But if I think about the current shipment profile, it's is heavily biased towards the leading provider of HBM memories right now.

因此，在等式的客戶 HBM 方面，我認為對於那些關注這個市場的人來說，您確實了解就 HBM 當前的市場份額而言，有一個相當重要的領導者。事實證明，這是一位與 FormFactor 有著非常牢固的歷史關係的客戶，也是我們擁有相對較高市場份額的客戶。所以這現在對我們有幫助。如果你考慮一下我們與其他兩家主要 DRAM 製造商的合作，我認為他們與份額動態相當吻合。我們對他們每個人都很積極。我們與他們每個人都有接觸。但如果我考慮一下當前的出貨情況，就會發現目前嚴重偏向於領先的 HBM 內存供應商。

If you think about constraints, as far as we sit, we're in pretty good shape. I don't feel like we're a constraint on the overall HBM ramp. There's probably other areas of process tools, some yields, which secondarily help us, right? A lower yield part needs more probe cards to get a certain number of die out, and test intensity is going to go up in that situation. We're currently enjoying that and helping resolve those yield problem. So I don't think we're the current constraint on HBM production and the ramp associated with those things. And you can imagine that given the capacity investments we've made and the CapEx we've deployed, if we need to turn on a few elements of that to meet this HBM demand, we're at the ready to do that.

如果你考慮一下限制因素，就我們而言，我們的狀況相當不錯。我不認為我們是整體 HBM 增長的限制。可能還有其他領域的工藝工具，一些產量，這對我們有其次的幫助，對吧？成品率較低的部件需要更多的探針卡來獲得一定數量的芯片，在這種情況下，測試強度將會增加。我們目前正在享受這一點並幫助解決這些產量問題。因此，我認為我們目前並不是 HBM 生產以及與這些事情相關的產能增長的限制因素。您可以想像，考慮到我們所做的容量投資和部署的資本支出，如果我們需要啟用其中的一些要素來滿足 HBM 需求，我們已經準備好這樣做。

That would be a nice problem to have. And then following up, and I'll just spin it over to Foundry and Logic. When I look at supplement that shows revenue mix by customer, we do see Intel drop into the lowest percent of sales, and I believe it would be lowest dollar sales in the last 4 quarters. Charles asked about a trough in DRAM. Do you feel like your largest customer is at trough levels? Or how do we think about the gives and takes as we look into the back half of this year and 2024 there?

這將是一個很好的問題。然後跟進，我會將其轉交給 Foundry 和 Logic。當我查看顯示客戶收入組合的補充材料時，我們確實看到英特爾的銷售額百分比下降到最低，我相信這將是過去 4 個季度中最低的美元銷售額。 Charles 詢問 DRAM 的低谷情況。您是否覺得您最大的客戶正處於低谷？或者，當我們展望今年下半年和 2024 年時，我們如何考慮給予和索取？

I think your observation is a good one. I think there's 2 components to this. One is, our largest customer and generally Foundry and Logic, there are some important leading-edge designs that are beginning to ramp on advanced packaging technologies, 3D packaging chiplets, those kind of enabling technologies. And we're just in the middle of that transition and ramp with that customer. I think layered on top of that, you've seen some pretty significant weakness in the client PC business, analogous to what's happened in Memory. It looks to be now rationalizing and recovering, but it's also going to take end market growth, consumer PC refresh cycles to really start to pull the inventory in some of these new products through where customers are going to ramp wafer starts significantly, buy probe cards for those wafer starts.

我認為你的觀察是好的。我認為這有兩個組成部分。一是，我們最大的客戶，通常是 Foundry 和 Logic，有一些重要的前沿設計開始採用先進封裝技術、3D 封裝小芯片和此類支持技術。我們正處於與該客戶的過渡和升級過程中。我認為除此之外，您還看到客戶端 PC 業務存在一些非常明顯的弱點，類似於內存領域發生的情況。它現在看起來正在合理化和復蘇，但它也將需要終端市場的增長，消費者個人電腦的更新周期才能真正開始拉動其中一些新產品的庫存，客戶將顯著提高晶圓開工率，購買探針卡對於那些晶圓開始。

So I think as long as things stay in this relatively stable situation that we currently have and start to consume inventory, new products coming into the channel that need new probe cards to test and get to the back end, I think we'll probably see things turn up from here. And I made a comment in the prepared remarks that one of the areas of strength sequentially in Foundry and Logic we do see is client PC. And I think that's consistent with our customers and their narratives over the past couple of weeks associated with that market.

因此，我認為，只要事情保持在我們目前所擁有的相對穩定的情況下，並開始消耗庫存，新產品進入渠道，需要新的探針卡進行測試並到達後端，我認為我們可能會看到事情從這裡開始。我在準備好的發言中評論道，我們確實看到 Foundry 和 Logic 的優勢領域之一是客戶端 PC。我認為這與我們的客戶以及他們過去幾週與該市場相關的敘述是一致的。

That's really helpful. And then if I could just sneak in one more. You and Shai noted that Systems was an area where there was a pushout in the business. But if we adjust for that pushout, if not for that, Systems would have been at significant record levels in the quarter. And so the question is, given where natural demand is, if not for that shipped, can you talk about how you're feeling about the trajectory of the Systems business? And are we starting to move into new higher levels of revenue generative capacity, given some of the trends that you talked about earlier in your remarks?

這真的很有幫助。如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次就好了。 You 和 Shai 指出，系統是業務中受到排斥的領域。但如果我們針對這一推出進行調整，如果不是這樣的話，系統公司本季度將達到顯著的創紀錄水平。所以問題是，考慮到自然需求在哪裡，如果不是發貨的話，您能談談您對系統業務發展軌蹟的看法嗎？鑑於您之前在講話中談到的一些趨勢，我們是否開始進入新的更高水平的創收能力？

We're very excited about the Systems business. We're disappointed in the pushouts. If you extrapolate $5 million to $6 million gap to our midpoint in the outlook, again, reiterating that we are planning to ship those systems in the year in Q3. So it's not perishable. But relatively high ASPs, as you might infer, and tools that are really enabling the next generation of semiconductor innovation. I highlighted co-packaged optics and silicon photonics in the prepared remarks. That's a real driver.

我們對系統業務感到非常興奮。我們對推出感到失望。如果您推斷我們的前景中點有 500 萬至 600 萬美元的差距，那麼再次重申，我們計劃在今年第三季度交付這些系統。所以它不易腐爛。但正如您可能推斷的那樣，相對較高的平均售價以及真正支持下一代半導體創新的工具。我在準備好的發言中強調了共同封裝的光學和矽光子學。這才是真正的司機。

But there are some other ones where we have unique capabilities, whether it be cryogenic systems for test and measurements in quantum computing, metrology and inspection for advanced packaging. It's an area where customers continue to invest. Semiconductor R&D spending by our customers continues to be at record levels as they continue to innovate in all these exciting areas. And our tools in the Systems segment are really enabling that and customers are continuing to spend aggressively on that, and so a good example of FormFactor's diversified strategy where we've got some strength in the Systems business, good momentum in the Systems business that's helping at least partially offset some of the softness overall in the production probe card business because of the cyclical downturn.

但在其他一些領域，我們擁有獨特的能力，無論是用於量子計算、計量和先進封裝檢測中的測試和測量的低溫系統。這是客戶持續投資的領域。隨著我們的客戶在所有這些令人興奮的領域不斷創新，他們的半導體研發支出繼續保持在創紀錄的水平。我們在系統領域的工具確實能夠實現這一點，並且客戶繼續在這方面積極投入，這是FormFactor 多元化戰略的一個很好的例子，我們在系統業務方面擁有一定的實力，系統業務的良好勢頭正在幫助我們至少部分抵消了由於週期性衰退而造成的探針卡生產業務整體疲軟的部分影響。

Our next question comes from the line of David Duley of Steelhead Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Steelhead 證券公司的 David Duley。

I have a couple. Mike, I've asked this question in the past, but I'd just like a little bit of further elaboration. You've talked about how high-bandwidth memory is more probe and test intensive for two reasons. One is it's packaged and there's more steps in the stack of packages. And then also because the chips and cells are more complex. So we add these 2 things up, how much more probe intensive do you think high-bandwidth memory is versus standard memory?

我有一對。邁克，我過去曾問過這個問題，但我想進一步詳細說明一下。您已經討論過高帶寬內存的探測和測試更加密集，原因有兩個。一是它已打包，並且包堆棧中有更多步驟。此外，還因為芯片和電池更加複雜。因此，我們將這兩件事加起來，您認為高帶寬內存與標準內存相比，探測密集程度高多少？

On a like-for-like basis, let's call it bits out the door, HBM, as with most advanced packaging technologies, somewhere between 20% and 30% more test intensive as we see it. Now early in any of these technology ramps, you're going to get an intensity bump because yields are low. Customers are working through all of the yield improvement challenges associated with things like stacking die. And that's one of the areas where FormFactor provides unique value, right?

在同類基礎上，我們稱其為“bits out”，HBM，與最先進的封裝技術一樣，正如我們所見，測試強度增加了 20% 到 30%。現在，在任何這些技術進步的早期，由於產量較低，您都會得到強度的提升。客戶正在努力解決與堆疊芯片等相關的所有產量提高挑戰。這就是 FormFactor 提供獨特價值的領域之一，對吧？

So the high fidelity tests, the app speed tests we offer really allows customers to detect and then fix these yield problems associated with new technologies so that they can then ramp them aggressively in volume at higher yields. So rule of thumb, I think, we see it in HBM, we see it in most chiplet technologies somewhere around 20% to 30% more test intensive on a like-for-like out basis.

因此，我們提供的高保真度測試和應用程序速度測試確實使客戶能夠檢測並修復與新技術相關的這些良率問題，以便他們能夠以更高的良率大幅提高產量。因此，我認為，根據經驗，我們在 HBM 中看到了這一點，在大多數小芯片技術中也看到了這一點，在同類基礎上，測試強度增加了 20% 到 30% 左右。

Okay. Then as my second question. The Foundry and Logic business declined, I think you mentioned 19% or 20% or so sequentially. Can you just talk -- elaborate a little bit about what the key weakness was behind that drop? And then just kind of a similar question, what percentage do you think of 3-, 5- and 7-nanometer nodes are using MEMS technology now for probe? Are there other big segments that don't use MEMS, such as the GPU segment that's switching over at this point?

好的。然後作為我的第二個問題。鑄造和邏輯業務下降了，我想你提到了 19% 或 20% 左右。你能談談——詳細說明一下這次下跌背後的關鍵弱點是什麼嗎？然後是一個類似的問題，您認為 3 納米、5 納米和 7 納米節點現在使用 MEMS 技術作為探針的比例是多少？是否還有其他不使用 MEMS 的大型細分市場，例如此時正在切換的 GPU 細分市場？

So Foundry and Logic was down in the quarter. If you go back to what we said on the Q1 call, that was an expected decline. We had quite a strong Q1 in Foundry and Logic. And we had an expectation for some digestion there and that's exactly what we saw. We now, in our third quarter outlook, see Foundry and Logic rebounding some, some strength driven by both modest increases in mobile and client PC. But as our largest business, this is an important one that we continue to compete hard in and continue to make sure we're engaged with all the top customers.

因此 Foundry 和 Logic 在本季度業績下滑。如果你回到我們在第一季度電話會議上所說的，那是預期的下降。我們在 Foundry 和 Logic 領域的第一季度表現相當強勁。我們期望在那裡進行一些消化，這正是我們所看到的。現在，在我們的第三季度展望中，我們看到 Foundry 和 Logic 有所反彈，部分強勁勢頭是由移動和客戶端 PC 的小幅增長推動的。但作為我們最大的業務，這是一項重要的業務，我們將繼續努力競爭，並繼續確保我們與所有頂級客戶互動。

If we think about areas of that market that are still unserved or underserved by MEMS probes, we've talked already on this call about the GPUs, and that's really because they are very large footprint and don't need the density that a MEMS probe has. So customers can still utilize the older technologies with probably quite a bit lower cost. And so that's a rational decision for them.

如果我們考慮到 MEMS 探針尚未服務或服務不足的市場領域，我們已經在這次電話會議上討論了 GPU，這實際上是因為它們的佔地面積非常大，並且不需要 MEMS 探針的密度有。因此，客戶仍然可以使用舊的技術，而成本可能要低得多。所以這對他們來說是一個理性的決定。

As they move to some of these advanced technologies like CoWoS at 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer, you really have the MEMS probe. And so that's an opportunity that's in front of us and in front of the 2 primary MEMS probe suppliers in Foundry and Logic. That's probably the last real hole in the advanced node adoption of MEMS probes. We see widespread adoption across most of MPUs, application processors, any kind of high-performance compute, GPUs is really the hole at this point.

當他們轉向一些先進技術（例如 3 納米和 5 納米的 CoWoS）時，您就真正擁有了 MEMS 探針。因此，這是擺在我們以及 Foundry 和 Logic 兩家主要 MEMS 探針供應商面前的機會。這可能是先進節點採用 MEMS 探針的最後一個真正的漏洞。我們看到大多數 MPU、應用處理器、任何類型的高性能計算、GPU 都得到了廣泛採用，GPU 確實是目前的漏洞。

Our next question comes from the line of Christian Schwab of Craig-Hallum.

我們的下一個問題來自 Craig-Hallum 的 Christian Schwab。

Following up on the GPU MEMS movement in the last advanced node adoption, I mean how big of a business could that be in 2 to 3 years, bigger than it is currently?

繼上一次先進節點採用中的 GPU MEMS 運動之後，我的意思是，在 2 到 3 年內，該業務會比目前規模更大？

I think the one thing to be somewhat cautious about it is, and I think most people have understood the GPU dynamics and generative AI adoption is the units are relatively low, right? These are very large and complex products that they're extremely high ASPs for that customer. And so when you think about it in terms of test intensity, dollars spend on probe cards more specifically, there's probably not a huge needle mover there, at least in the initial adoption. The foundries are talking about adding a few thousand wafer starts associated with CoWoS. If you contrast that to mobile and some of the big projects of the industry, the high unit volumes associated with mobile completely dwarf, right, the increases we're talking about with CoWoS.

我認為需要謹慎的一件事是，我認為大多數人都了解 GPU 動態和生成式人工智能的採用，單位相對較低，對嗎？這些是非常龐大且複雜的產品，對於該客戶來說它們的平均售價非常高。因此，當您考慮測試強度時，更具體地說，在探針卡上花費的資金，可能沒有巨大的推動因素，至少在最初的採用中是這樣。代工廠正在討論增加數千個與 CoWoS 相關的晶圓啟動。如果你將其與移動和行業的一些大型項目進行對比，那麼與移動相關的高單位數量完全相形見絀，對吧，我們正在談論的 CoWoS 的增長。

And so while it's an exciting opportunity, and we're seeing its impact in DRAM with HBM, it's an area where we want to be somewhat cautious in creating expectations and adding capacity and planning around it. I think we'll see exactly the same dynamics as we've seen in other parts of the business with the adoption of MEMS probes where you see increased value, increased test intensity associated with both the probe card sale, but also the test intensity as these customers try and adapt their integration strategies to the advanced packaging techniques like CoWoS.

因此，雖然這是一個令人興奮的機會，並且我們看到了它對 HBM 的 DRAM 的影響，但我們希望在創造預期、增加產能和圍繞它進行規劃時保持謹慎。我認為，隨著採用 MEMS 探針，我們將看到與業務其他部分完全相同的動態，您會看到價值增加，與探針卡銷售相關的測試強度增加，而且測試強度也增加這些客戶嘗試調整他們的集成策略以適應CoWoS 等先進封裝技術。

Okay. Great. And then my last question have to -- two-pronged, have to do with Foundry and Logic. First of all, how do you guys view your market share position on Meteor Lake by your largest customer? Our checks suggest that will be greater than the previous generation Sapphire Rapids. Just want to confirm that. And this is a chip that Intel is massively excited about, thinks it's the biggest chip introduction since bringing WiFi to laptops in 2000 as they're going to bring AI to the Edge and to the personal computer. So if they're remotely directionally accurate about that, that should be a big deal if you are positioned well there from a market share perspective. That's part one of the question.

好的。偉大的。然後我的最後一個問題必須是雙管齊下的，與 Foundry 和 Logic 有關。首先，你們如何看待你們最大客戶在 Meteor Lake 上的市場份額地位？我們的檢查表明，這將比上一代 Sapphire Rapids 更大。只是想確認一下。英特爾對這款芯片非常興奮，認為這是自 2000 年將 WiFi 引入筆記本電腦以來最大規模的芯片推出，因為他們將把人工智能引入邊緣和個人電腦。因此，如果他們在這方面的方向非常準確，那麼如果您從市場份額的角度來看處於有利位置，那麼這應該是一件大事。這是問題的一部分。

Part two of the question is, it's my understanding that you guys are close to potentially selling to, call it, Intel's largest CPU competitor, a person you previously haven't had material market share with that could ramp to be a material business. So if you could give us a quick update on both of those, that would be great.

問題的第二部分是，據我了解，你們很可能將其出售給英特爾最大的 CPU 競爭對手，您以前沒有與之擁有實質性市場份額，但可能會發展成為一項實質性業務。因此，如果您能給我們提供有關這兩個方面的快速更新，那就太好了。

Sure, sure. I think a couple of things. With our largest customer, a design like Meteor Lake has us all excited for a couple of reasons. One, I think the value it delivers to their customers is significant, and there's some fantastic innovation in what it does to the client PC experience. The other reason that's exciting is it's the first major high unit volume consumer product that's going to utilize advanced packaging, this die stacking. And so it's exciting from a couple of different perspectives.

一定一定。我認為有幾件事。對於我們最大的客戶來說，像 Meteor Lake 這樣的設計讓我們都感到興奮，原因有幾個。第一，我認為它為客戶提供的價值是巨大的，並且它在客戶端 PC 體驗方面有一些出色的創新。另一個令人興奮的原因是，它是第一個採用先進封裝（即芯片堆疊）的主要大批量消費產品。因此，從幾個不同的角度來看，這都是令人興奮的。

Compared to some of the server chips like Sapphire Rapids, we do have a better share position in the client products like Meteor Lake. And so it's an area where we're excited about that ramp. I think you still need to be a little bit circumspect, given the weakness in the client PC market. It does appear to be stabilizing and improving, but we're definitely not off to the races like we were in the midst of the pandemic when everybody was refreshing their PCs.

相比Sapphire Rapids等一些服務器芯片，我們在Meteor Lake等客戶端產品上確實有更好的份額。因此，我們對這個坡道感到興奮。考慮到客戶端 PC 市場的疲軟，我認為您仍然需要謹慎一些。它似乎確實在穩定和改善，但我們絕對不會像在大流行期間每個人都在更新他們的電腦那樣開始比賽。

The other point I would make before shifting to the second part of the question is, we were 1 of 6 suppliers who received the highest supplier award from Intel, and we were the only test and measurement supplier. So I think that's an indicator of the strength of that relationship, the robustness and health of that relationship, which presumably translates into market share as well.

在轉向問題的第二部分之前，我要指出的另一點是，我們是獲得英特爾最高供應商獎的 6 家供應商之一，並且我們是唯一的測試和測量供應商。所以我認為這是一種關係強度、穩健性和健康狀況的指標，這也可能轉化為市場份額。

On qualifying at the other MPU customer, we -- it continues to be an extremely high priority for FormFactor. Clearly, to be only qualified at one of them, you are then exposed to whatever share shifts occur in that market. And those share shifts, I think everybody understands have not been friendly to our largest customer. Having said that, we're still working with that customer to modify our technology, to adapt our technology to their specific test requirements, which like many customers are unique.

在其他 MPU 客戶的資格認證中，我們——這仍然是 FormFactor 的高度優先事項。顯然，如果只獲得其中一項資格，那麼您就會面臨該市場中發生的任何份額變化的影響。我想每個人都明白這些份額的變化對我們最大的客戶並不友好。話雖如此，我們仍在與該客戶合作修改我們的技術，使我們的技術適應他們的特定測試要求，就像許多客戶一樣，這些要求是獨一無二的。

Their test engineering teams have built up a strategy that they believe offers them unique value, and we continue to modify our technology, develop our technology, so that we can be qualified and grow our business there. So it continues to represent a growth opportunity for us, continues to represent a high priority for us. We understand the strategic imperative of getting qualified there.

他們的測試工程團隊已經制定了一項戰略，他們相信該戰略可以為他們提供獨特的價值，而我們將繼續修改我們的技術，開發我們的技術，以便我們能夠獲得資格並在那裡發展我們的業務。因此，它仍然是我們的增長機會，仍然是我們的高度優先事項。我們了解獲得那裡資格的戰略必要性。

And just a follow-up on that, if I can. When will we verify or validate the fact that you would get there? And then how long, if you did, would it take you to get a meaningful market leadership position at that customer? I assume it would take 2 to 3 years, but it could be faster depending on how your competitor is doing. But my guess is they may spend at least $100 million on these products a year. So it's kind of a substantial opportunity for you and -- in the ballpark or is that not right?

如果可以的話，我只是跟進一下。我們什麼時候會驗證或驗證您會到達那裡的事實？那麼，如果您這樣做了，您需要多長時間才能在該客戶那裡獲得有意義的市場領導地位？我認為這需要 2 到 3 年的時間，但根據競爭對手的表現，可能會更快。但我猜測他們每年可能會在這些產品上花費至少 1 億美元。所以這對你來說是一個重要的機會——在球場上，或者這不對嗎？

I think you're a little high, but let's call you are close to the ballpark, maybe in the parking lot. They are a significant spender. When you think about the timing that you just articulated, that's about what it takes, right, to get qualified and then win a few designs and ramp. So this is an opportunity that is very much still in front of us. I want to reiterate that it is a strategic imperative for FormFactor to get ourselves qualified and realize that a significant amount of share of that significant spend on probe cards in the industry.

我認為你有點高，但我們可以說你離球場很近，也許在停車場。他們是大手筆的消費者。當你想到你剛剛闡述的時間安排時，這就是獲得資格然後贏得一些設計和坡道所需要的，對吧。因此，這是一個仍然擺在我們面前的機會。我想重申，FormFactor 的戰略當務之急是讓自己合格並認識到行業中探針卡的大量支出中的很大一部分。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question come from the line of Linda Umwali of D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Linda Umwali。戴維森。

Tom Diffely. So previously, earlier, you referenced some inventory issues at your clients that was still kind of gating your ability to ship some new product. What do you think the industry is or your clients are in the burn of their excess inventory levels at this point? Are there still a few quarters left of that?

湯姆·迪菲利.因此，之前，您提到了客戶的一些庫存問題，這仍然限制了您運送某些新產品的能力。您認為這個行業或您的客戶此時處於過剩庫存水平的困境中嗎？還剩幾個季度嗎？

I think it's different in different segments and end markets. If you look at something like Flash, the Flash has a long way to go, at least NAND flash has a long way to go. DRAM probably in a little bit better shape, but you heard narrative from some of the big DRAM manufacturers in the last several weeks where they feel like that's turning, but there's still a significant amount of inventory to get through. Mobile, probably a few quarters to go as well.

我認為不同的細分市場和終端市場是不同的。如果你看Flash這樣的東西，Flash還有很長的路要走，至少NAND閃存還有很長的路要走。 DRAM 的狀況可能會好一些，但過去幾週你聽到一些大型 DRAM 製造商的說法，他們覺得情況正在發生轉變，但仍然有大量庫存需要處理。移動設備，可能還需要幾個季度。

Some of the areas where we don't have as much exposure, things like automotive, trailing edge nodes, analog, things like that, where there's still a pretty healthy supply-demand balance and relatively little inventory, those are pretty cleaned up. So I think you've got the whole gamut across the semiconductor industry, but the areas that drive significant volumes of new probe cards for us and new unit volumes, higher unit volumes of probe cards on new designs, there's still some inventory to get through here.

一些我們沒有太多曝光的領域，比如汽車、後緣節點、模擬等，仍然保持著相當健康的供需平衡，庫存相對較少，這些領域都已經清理乾淨了。因此，我認為您已經掌握了整個半導體行業的全部領域，但是在為我們帶來大量新探針卡和新單位數量、新設計上更高單位數量的探針卡的領域，仍然有一些庫存需要處理這裡。

Okay. That's helpful. And Mike, I was curious, so I was wondering if you could give us just a little more information on the silicon photonics opportunity for you? Maybe how big it is today? How you think the ramp up is in that space over the next few years and how big it could be?

好的。這很有幫助。邁克，我很好奇，所以我想知道你是否能為我們提供更多有關矽光子學機會的信息？也許今天有多大？您認為未來幾年該領域的增長情況如何，規模有多大？

Silicon photonics and co-packaged optics, we talked about in the prepared remarks, is a really exciting area for us. One, because we've got a strong position with our tools and the partnerships we have with companies like Keysight and PI and providing a turnkey electrooptical measurement system. And what customers need to do is, test these chips both optically and electrically. And we're one of a handful of suppliers, maybe the only supplier in the world, who can bring those technologies together to provide that kind of hybrid electrooptical test system.

我們在準備好的發言中談到了矽光子學和共封裝光學器件，這對我們來說是一個非常令人興奮的領域。第一，因為我們的工具以及與 Keysight 和 PI 等公司的合作夥伴關係以及提供交鑰匙電光測量系統的能力，讓我們擁有了強大的地位。客戶需要做的是對這些芯片進行光學和電氣測試。我們是少數幾家供應商之一，也許是世界上唯一一家能夠將這些技術結合在一起提供這種混合光電測試系統的供應商。

This is still in late R&D, early pilot production. So one of the things we're now focused on is how do we take those hybrid electrooptical technologies and really capitalize on them as silicon photonics grows. It's got 30-odd percent growth rates from most external third-party market research firms. Co-packaged optics in the data center, a wonderfully compelling trend just because of the power efficiency improvement.

這還處於研發後期，試產初期。因此，我們現在關注的事情之一是，隨著矽光子學的發展，我們如何利用這些混合光電技術並真正利用它們。大多數外部第三方市場研究公司的增長率都在 30% 左右。數據中心中的共同封裝光學器件由於功率效率的提高而成為一個非常引人注目的趨勢。

So what we're trying to do right now is position a business that's maybe 10% to 20% of Systems segment revenues, and really position ourselves to take advantage of the growth of that in our production business, in the probe card business, and probably this is one of the places where we extend the Systems business into a more production-like environment over the next couple of years.

因此，我們現在要做的就是定位一個可能佔系統部門收入 10% 到 20% 的業務，並真正定位自己，以利用我們的生產業務、探針卡業務和這可能是我們在未來幾年將系統業務擴展到更像生產環境的地方之一。

So I'd expect, it's one of the reasons why we keep talking about it. It's one of the areas where investing a lot of in R&D, we're coupled with the leading customers in the industry, and it's an area where we would expect to track this 30-odd percent growth rate of the industry when we're successful in executing.

所以我預計，這就是我們不斷談論它的原因之一。這是我們在研發方面投入大量資金的領域之一，我們與行業中的領先客戶合作，當我們成功時，我們希望在這個領域跟踪行業 30% 左右的增長率在執行中。

So if it's in late R&D at this point, are we a couple of years away from meaningful production? Or could it be faster than that?

那麼，如果此時處於研發後期，我們距離有意義的生產還需要幾年時間嗎？或者可以比這更快嗎？

It could be faster now. A couple of customers have time lines that are -- they're still into late 2024, but I think that's a reasonable expectation for some of these production ramps to start.

現在可能會更快。一些客戶的時間表仍然是 2024 年底，但我認為對於其中一些生產的開始，這是一個合理的預期。

Our next question comes from the line of Gus Richard of Northland Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northland Capital Markets 的 Gus Richard。

I have my first question, this is a second a 7-part question, just kidding. If you think about silicon photonics, can you give us an idea how many people you are engaged with?

我有第一個問題，這是第二個問題，由 7 部分組成，開玩笑。如果您考慮矽光子學，您能否告訴我們您與多少人合作？

So we've sold tools to many, many customers numbering in the dozens. But I think this is one area where you have new technology where you really want to partner with the people who you feel are going to be the leaders. And so we focus a lot of our R&D engagements on a handful of customers, making sure we're working closely with them and developing the systems and modifying the systems and making sure we understand their road maps to go into production. So while it's a fairly broad-based -- broad installed base of silicon photonics tools that we have, again, numbering in the dozens, really focused on a couple of driver customers. And that's a strategy that's consistent with the way we drive most of our R&D across all of our businesses.

因此，我們已經向許多客戶出售了工具，數量達到數十個。但我認為這是一個擁有新技術的領域，你真的想與那些你認為將成為領導者的人合作。因此，我們將大量研發活動集中在少數客戶身上，確保我們與他們密切合作，開發系統並修改系統，並確保我們了解他們投入生產的路線圖。因此，儘管我們擁有相當廣泛的矽光子工具安裝基礎，數量也有數十個，但真正關注的是幾個驅動客戶。這一戰略與我們在所有業務中推動大部分研發的方式是一致的。

Great. That's helpful. And then thinking about your Foundry and Logic business, if you kind of cut that segment by, say, how much of it is mobile and PC clients and how much of it is chiplets. I know there are 2 different categories, but if you can kind of give us a sense of how big chiplets are and sort of how big the client piece of it is, that would be helpful.

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後考慮一下您的代工和邏輯業務，如果您將該細分市場劃分為移動和 PC 客戶端的比例以及小芯片的比例。我知道有兩種不同的類別，但如果您能讓我們了解小芯片有多大以及它的客戶端部分有多大，那將會很有幫助。

Well, I think it also depends on what time frame you're talking about. If you go back to 2021 when client PCs were on fire, it was a very large piece of the business. And we also had mobile and 5G layered on top of that. So you can probably back into what the percentages are based on some of the historicals. I don't have that off the top of my head, and would not really want to speculate on the segmentation. It can often be difficult to sell, especially in mobile, exactly where a chip is destined for. So we want to be careful with some of those. But definitely, they are very large components of the Foundry and Logic business, well north of 50%.

嗯，我認為這也取決於你所說的時間範圍。如果你回到 2021 年，當時客戶端 PC 火熱，這是該業務的一個非常大的部分。除此之外，我們還有移動和 5G 分層。因此，您可能可以根據一些歷史數據來了解百分比。我並沒有想到這一點，也不想對細分進行猜測。銷售往往很困難，尤其是在移動領域，而芯片的用途正是如此。所以我們要小心其中的一些。但毫無疑問，它們是代工和邏輯業務的重要組成部分，遠遠超過 50%。

If you then think about the cut-through chiplets, it's relatively smaller in Foundry and Logic because we're just in the early innings of adoption. We talked about Meteor Lake in somebody else's question, that's an example of really the first high-volume client or consumer-driven part, whether it's client PC or mobile, that's adopting these chiplet architectures.

如果你再考慮一下直通小芯片，它在 Foundry 和 Logic 中相對較小，因為我們正處於採用的早期階段。我們在其他人的問題中談到了 Meteor Lake，這是真正第一個大容量客戶端或消費者驅動部分的示例，無論是客戶端 PC 還是移動設備，都採用了這些小芯片架構。

And so if I were to hazard a guess, we're still in Foundry and Logic, probably mid-single digits, high single digits, relatively low percentage. It's one of the reasons why it's such an exciting opportunity. The increases in test intensity and test complexity associated with advanced packaging and chiplets, as chiplets become a bigger part of the overall Foundry and Logic industry, that's an exciting growth opportunity for us.

因此，如果我大膽猜測一下，我們仍然處於 Foundry 和 Logic 領域，可能處於中個位數、高個位數、相對較低的百分比。這就是為什麼這是一個如此令人興奮的機會的原因之一。隨著小芯片成為整個代工和邏輯行業的重要組成部分，與先進封裝和小芯片相關的測試強度和測試複雜性不斷增加，這對我們來說是一個令人興奮的增長機會。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Chin of Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Brian Chin。

I have a few questions. Maybe just to clarify something. So the pushout, it sounds like it's kind of $5 million, $6 million, and you expect to recapture that in 3Q. Was that entirely the Systems, the sort of on-demand related reasons that you laid out? Or was there any delay in terms of the probe card revenue as well?

我有幾個問題。也許只是為了澄清一些事情。因此，退出聽起來像是 500 萬美元、600 萬美元，你預計會在第三季度重新奪回這一數額。這完全是系統的原因嗎？您提出的那種與按需相關的原因嗎？或者探針卡收入也有任何延遲嗎？

Well, in the probe card segment, because it operates on such short lead times, we often have differences from the assumptions we've made in our outlook. Right now, we've still got essentially 2 months to go in the quarter. And so we do see changes in the probe card business as the quarter evolves. And as we book and ship things, we still have a good chunk of turnables to go here in the third quarter. And the same situation existed in the second quarter. So a little more difficult to make those comparisons in the probe card business.

嗯，在探針卡領域，因為它的交貨時間很短，所以我們經常與我們在前景中所做的假設存在差異。目前，距離本季度結束還有 2 個月的時間。因此，隨著季度的發展，我們確實看到了探針卡業務的變化。當我們預訂和運送東西時，我們仍然有很大一部分轉盤要在第三季度運到這裡。同樣的情況也出現在第二季度。因此，在探針卡業務中進行這些比較有點困難。

But if you look at, what we said on the call, the Systems business, the lead times are longer. And so we do have backlog level of visibility for what we should be shipping in the quarter. And in the second quarter, you can look at the delta to the midpoint of guidance that we gave. It's about a $6 million delta, and we had about a $6 million delta of shipments that we expected, the Systems that we expected to ship that we didn't.

但如果你看看我們在電話中所說的系統業務，交貨時間就會更長。因此，我們確實對本季度應該發貨的產品有積壓的可見性。在第二季度，您可以查看我們給出的指導中點的增量。這大約是 600 萬美元的增量，我們預期的發貨量增量約為 600 萬美元，我們預期發貨的系統我們沒有發貨。

Got it. And maybe, Mike, kind of a bigger picture question, kind of tying the things that have been discussed already, but just cyclically, things are clearly a bit more depressed currently. And I think everyone expects in time that there will be some better improvement off the bottom. But that being said, over the midterm, say, 2 to 3 years, are you upbeat on IC unit growth similar to the past 5 to 10 years? And moving forward, do you think the complexity might have to do a little bit more of the heavy lifting to drive strong growth in the industry?

知道了。邁克，也許這是一個更大的問題，有點把已經討論過的事情聯繫起來，但只是周期性地，目前的情況顯然更加沮喪。我認為每個人都期望及時會有一些更好的改善。但話雖如此，從中期來看，比如 2 到 3 年，您對 IC 單位增長與過去 5 到 10 年類似的情況持樂觀態度嗎？展望未來，您是否認為複雜性可能需要做更多的繁重工作才能推動行業的強勁增長？

Yes, it's a really interesting question. I think over a 2- to 3-year time frame, we are optimistic about overall IC growth, IC revenue growth. If you look at the industry historically, it's always gone through these cyclical ups and downs, but imposed on that, a very strong long-term growth trajectory. And so over a 2- to 3-year time frame, we're confident that the industry is going to emerge from this cyclical downturn and that we'll begin to see IC unit growth and dollar growth.

是的，這是一個非常有趣的問題。我認為在 2 到 3 年的時間範圍內，我們對整體 IC 增長、IC 收入增長持樂觀態度。如果你回顧這個行業的歷史，它總是經歷這些週期性的起起落落，但在此基礎上形成了非常強勁的長期增長軌跡。因此，在 2 到 3 年的時間範圍內，我們相信該行業將擺脫這種週期性衰退，並且我們將開始看到 IC 單位的增長和美元的增長。

Layered on top of that, though, the degree of complexity and value in each of these IC units is pretty significant, right? If you think about some of the projects we talked about on the call, whether they're HBM, whether they're projects like Meteor Lake, the complexity in those and the value they provide is certainly going to be part of the revenue growth superimposed on top of the IC unit growth.

但除此之外，每個 IC 單元的複雜程度和價值都相當重要，對嗎？如果你想想我們在電話會議上討論的一些項目，無論它們是 HBM，還是像 Meteor Lake 這樣的項目，這些項目的複雜性和它們提供的價值肯定會成為疊加收入增長的一部分IC 單位的增長。

Our next question comes from Vedvati Shrotre of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Vedvati Shrotre。

I guess just from a long-term perspective. So on your prepared remarks, you talked about HBM adding complexity to your probe cards, the number of steps increase, but is there a point, as you know, like 3 or 4 years down the line as HBM stacking continues and you see more and more stacks of DRAM, do you think that could drive your margins on memory similar -- to similar levels as (technical difficulty), given that the complexity -- these probe cards are complex compared to what your DRAM probe cards will be?

我想只是從長遠的角度來看。因此，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了HBM 增加了探針卡的複雜性，步驟數量增加，但正如您所知，有沒有一個點，比如3 或4 年後，隨著HBM 堆疊的繼續，您會看到更多和更多的DRAM 堆棧，您是否認為這可以提高您的內存利潤率（技術難度），考慮到復雜性（與您的DRAM 探針卡相比，這些探針卡更加複雜）？

It's a good question, and it drives to some of the underlying gross margin fluctuations that Shai talked about, whether it's increasing the value of what we do in a market like DRAM by making sure that we have a compelling differentiated products for new things like HBM, that certainly helps gross margins out in a segment that has been gross margin challenged over the past several years. We're also investing in R&D to improve our competitiveness and profitability with some of these platforms. So over that kind of time frame -- I think you said 3 or 4 years, over that kind of time frame, you can see both of those things at work.

這是一個很好的問題，它會導致Shai 談到的一些潛在的毛利率波動，即通過確保我們為HBM 等新事物提供引人注目的差異化產品，是否可以增加我們在DRAM 這樣的市場所做的事情的價值，這無疑有助於改善過去幾年毛利率受到挑戰的細分市場的毛利率。我們還投資於研發，以提高我們在其中一些平台上的競爭力和盈利能力。因此，在這樣的時間範圍內——我想你說的是 3 或 4 年，在這樣的時間範圍內，你可以看到這兩件事正在發揮作用。

It's one of the reasons that we're confident in the progression back towards the 47% of the target model. And if you've seen FormFactor's long-term gross margin, gross margin improvement and gross margin evolution, you can see that that's a very important metric for us. Tough to overcome the volume reductions we're having in the current cyclical downturn, but in the area of both increasing value because of things like HBM and increased complexity, but also us driving our internal efficiency and gross margin improvement to deliver a bit of COGS structure in the gross margin line.

這是我們對回到 47% 目標模型充滿信心的原因之一。如果您看過 FormFactor 的長期毛利率、毛利率改善和毛利率演變，您就會發現這對我們來說是一個非常重要的指標。我們很難克服當前週期性低迷時期的產量減少，但由於 HBM 和復雜性增加等因素導致價值增加，而且我們還推動內部效率和毛利率改善，以實現一定的銷貨成本毛利率結構。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Mike Slessor for closing remarks. Sir?

現在我想請邁克·斯萊索 (Mike Slessor) 致閉幕詞。先生？

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We've got, as we usually do at this time of the year, several investor conferences lined up here as we go through the late part of the summer, and hope to see you at some of those. Until then, take care.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。正如我們通常在每年這個時候所做的那樣，在夏季末期，我們在這裡舉辦了幾場投資者會議，希望在其中一些會議上見到您。在那之前，要小心。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。