埃尼石油 (E) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon and welcome to our second quarter, first half results conference call. This quarter confirms we are making significant stride forward in delivering on our strategy and the four-year plan set out in March. I will discuss our financial results in more detail. But in summary, our performance in the first half exceeded our plan in terms of financial outcomes and cash flow generation with capital expenditure and leverage showing a positive trend.

下午好，歡迎參加我們的第二季、上半年業績電話會議。本季證實我們在實現我們的策略和 3 月制定的四年計劃方面取得了重大進展。我將更詳細地討論我們的財務表現。但總的來說，我們上半年的業績在財務成果和現金流產生方面都超出了我們的計劃，資本支出和槓桿率呈現出正面的趨勢。

Touching on some important milestones in the year so far, we are materially enhancing our upstream portfolio. We completed the high accretive acquisition of Neptune in January, already delivering significant value for any shareholders. Thanks to synergies in Indonesia, Norway, and Algeria.

談到今年迄今為止的一些重要里程碑，我們正在實質增強我們的上游產品組合。我們在一月份完成了對 Neptune 的高增值收購，已經為所有股東帶來了巨大的價值。感謝印尼、挪威和阿爾及利亞的協同作用。

Following the step-up of our exposure on the UKCS with Neptune, we have moved quickly and are creating one of the largest independent players in the country through the combination of -- with Ithaca Energy. At the same time, we are also making real progress in high-grading our upstream portfolio, completing the sale of non-core assets in Congo and Nigeria and announcing the sale of Alaska, which we expect to close before year end. Furthermore, we are working on some additional transaction related to our dual exploration model that will mature in the coming quarters.

繼我們與 Neptune 加強對 UKCS 的接觸之後，我們迅速採取行動，並透過與伊薩卡能源公司的合併，打造了全國最大的獨立參與者之一。同時，我們在上游投資組合的高評級方面也取得了實質進展，完成了剛果和尼日利亞非核心資產的出售，並宣佈出售阿拉斯加，預計年底前完成。此外，我們正在進行一些與我們的雙重勘探模式相關的額外交易，這些交易將在未來幾季成熟。

Meanwhile, our upstream business continues to focus on its core activities. We have reported production growth of 6% year on year and have added significant oil and gas resources with notable exploration successes in Ivory Coast, Cyprus, and Mexico.

同時，我們的上游業務繼續專注於其核心業務。我們的產量年增 6%，並增加了大量石油和天然氣資源，在科特迪瓦、塞浦路斯和墨西哥的勘探取得了顯著的成功。

On the businesses related to the energy transition, we are unveiling the value that the market places on our unique integrated chains in retail consumption and sustainable mobility. In March, we completed on the EUR600 million equity investment into Plenitude by Energy Infrastructure Partners. And this week have announced the potential investment by KKR into Enilive in a range between [EUR2.5 billion to EUR3 billion].

在與能源轉型相關的業務方面，我們正在揭示市場對我們在零售消費和永續旅行方面獨特的綜合鏈的價值。3月份，我們完成了Energy Infrastructure Partners對Plenitude的6億歐元股權投資。本週，KKR 宣布了對 Enilive 的潛在投資，投資範圍為[25億歐元至30億歐元]。

Together, deals highlight an enterprise value of around EUR22 billion, a remarkable improvement versus the margin on value these activities were accorded only a few years ago. We're also pleased with the operational progress we are making for Enilive, the FIDs of the two new biorefineries in Malaysia and South Korea, and for Plenitude, the startup of its largest solar project to date, the Renopool solar park in Spain.

這些交易合計帶來的企業價值約為 220 億歐元，與幾年前這些活動的價值邊際相比，這是一個顯著的進步。我們也對 Enilive（馬來西亞和韓國兩個新生物精煉廠的最終投資決定）以及 Plenitude 所取得的營運進展感到滿意，Plenitude 是迄今為止最大的太陽能計畫——西班牙 Renopool 太陽能園區的啟動計畫。

Let's put all these in context. The energy transition isn't reversal, but it will only be sustainable if allowed returns, attracting private capital. And this is what we are proving through our portfolio of activities that are highly valuable for the market and achieving precisely those objectives of profitability and economic sustainability.

讓我們把所有這些放在上下文中。能源轉型不會逆轉，但只有在獲得回報、吸引私人資本的情況下，這種轉型才是可持續的。這就是我們透過對市場極具價值的活動組合所證明的，並準確地實現了盈利和經濟可持續性的目標。

We are also growing upstream with higher margins and lower emission to be net zero by 2030. We will grow underaligning production by 4% per year over the planed period, reported production by 2% per year after disposals. And crucially, we will grow CFFO per barrel by 30%. Plenitude and Enilive will close to double EBITDA over the four-year plan and double again by 2030. This is an outstanding plan of growth that is attracting the interest of many investors and will ultimately take both businesses towards full market valorization through IPOs.

我們也在上游發展，利潤率更高，排放量更低，到 2030 年實現淨零排放。在計劃期間，我們將每年以 4% 的速度增長未調整的產量，報告的產量在處置後每年以 2% 的速度增長。至關重要的是，我們將每桶 CFFO 增加 30%。Plenitude 和 Enilive 將在四年計畫中將 EBITDA 接近翻一番，並在 2030 年再次翻倍。這是一項出色的成長計劃，吸引了許多投資者的興趣，並將最終使兩家公司透過首次公開募股實現全面市場增值。

Our transformation plan is more emerging option. We are restructuring and reorienting our chemical presence to all the sustainable platform based on biochemistry and the circular economy as we did and continue to do in biorefining. Furthermore, CCUS is a key role in reducing emissions in hard-to-abate sectors and is also well suited to be an additional satellite in our system in due course.

我們的轉型計劃是更多新興的選擇。我們正在重組和重新定位我們的化學品業務，以建立基於生物化學和循環經濟的可持續平台，就像我們在生物精煉領域所做的並將繼續做的那樣。此外，CCUS 在減少難以減排產業的排放方面發揮關鍵作用，也非常適合在適當的時候成為我們系統中的一顆額外衛星。

Taken together, supported by a clear and focused financial framework, Eni is able to offer a sector leading CFFO per share growth rate over 13% by per year and highly competitive shareholders' returns.

總而言之，在清晰、重點突出的財務框架的支持下，埃尼能夠提供業界領先的 CFFO 每股成長率每年超過 13%，以及極具競爭力的股東回報。

Turning to our results, pro forma EBIT incorporating our associate operations was EUR4.1 billion in line with last year, even without the benefit of GGP one-offs report in 2023. Over the first six months, pro forma EBIT was EUR8.2 billion, more than 60% of the original annual plan. In the upstream, we reported another excellent quarter with production up 6% year on year and pro forma EBITDA of EUR3.5 billion, capturing the oil price scenario and the recovering gas market. Indeed, GGP with EUR334 million also reported a strong result in line year-on-year on an underlining basis and in what is traditionally a seasonally lower quarter.

就我們的業績而言，即使不考慮 2023 年 GGP 一次性報告的影響，包含我們聯營業務的預計息稅前利潤為 41 億歐元，與去年持平。前六個月，預估息稅前利潤為 82 億歐元，超過原年度計畫的 60%。在上游，我們報告了另一個出色的季度，產量同比增長 6%，預計 EBITDA 為 35 億歐元，反映了油價和復甦的天然氣市場。事實上，GGP 的 3.34 億歐元在傳統上季節性較低的季度中也取得了與去年同期相比強勁的業績。

In the transition businesses, Enilive pro forma EBIT was EUR120 million, reflecting the currently softer bio refining market conditions, offset by seasonally stronger market income, confirming the advantage of integration along the value chain with the sales of products and services to retail and wholesale.

在轉型業務中，Enilive 預計息稅前利潤為1.2 億歐元，反映了當前生物煉製市場狀況的疲軟，但被季節性強勁的市場收入所抵消，證實了價值鏈整合以及向零售和批發銷售產品和服務的優勢。

Plenitude reported pro forma EBIT of EUR149 million, 12% higher than second quarter last year and giving a strong first half progression. A weaker scenario for refined products impacted our traditional refining, offset by resilient wholesale and trading activities and supported by high plants availability, leading to a stronger result year on year. Chemicals in Versalis continued to face very challenging market reflected in our Q2 losses.

Plenitude 報告預計息稅前利潤為 1.49 億歐元，比去年第二季成長 12%，上半年進展強勁。煉油產品的疲軟情況對我們的傳統煉油產生了影響，但彈性的批發和貿易活動抵消了這一影響，並得到了工廠高可用性的支持，從而實現了同比更好的業績。Versalis 的化學品繼續面臨非常具有挑戰性的市場，這反映在我們第二季的虧損上。

Taxes rose in the quarter with accounting rate at 55%, primarily due to mix effects within the upstream and across the income statement more generally. Our CFFO in the quarter is EUR3.9 billion and EUR7.8 billion for the first half, delivering a pleasing trend of efficient cash conversion, reflecting good dividend income and a cash tax rate of around 30%, consistent with the level we anticipate for the full year.

本季稅收上升，會計稅率達到 55%，這主要是由於上游和整個損益表內的混合效應。我們本季的 CFFO 為 39 億歐元，上半年為 78 億歐元，現金高效轉換趨勢良好，反映出良好的股息收入和 30% 左右的現金稅率，與我們預期的水平一致。

Our first half CFFO means we have already generated 55% of the planned annual amount. Organic CapEx is currently tracking below our gross guidance of EUR9 billion, full year figure, but our expectation remains unchanged.

我們上半年的 CFFO 意味著我們已經實現了年度計畫金額的 55%。有機資本支出目前低於我們全年 90 億歐元的總指引值，但我們的預期保持不變。

Net portfolio activity was still cash out in the half year, but in the quarter, we generated proceeds of EUR480 million being primarily the sale of the shares of Saipem. After payment of the final dividend and the restart of the buyback, net debt fell from a Q1 peak.

半年中淨投資組合活動仍然兌現，但在本季度，我們主要透過出售 Saipem 股票獲得了 4.8 億歐元的收益。在支付末期股息並重啟回購後，淨債務從第一季的高峰下降。

Let's focus for a moment on our upstream and transition businesses, the key current component of our value chain. This slide emphasizes the resilience of the result in the absence of GGP one-offs In E&P, we have delivered excellent volume growth backed by continuous exploration success to feed the business and progress portfolio high-grading. GGP continues to capture margin in our equity gas sales, leveraging its excellent asset and logistics positioning.

讓我們暫時關註一下我們的上游和轉型業務，這是我們價值鏈當前的關鍵組成部分。這張投影片強調了在沒有GGP 一次性事件的情況下結果的彈性。 。GGP 利用其卓越的資產和物流定位，繼續在我們的股權天然氣銷售中獲取利潤。

Financial performance in our transition businesses remain on track despite the volatile and often challenging scenario conditions. These reflect the underlying resilience in these balanced and integrated businesses. As a result, we are maintaining growth in a consistently competitive fashion and investing for value and for the long term. This means we are able to launch new advantages bio-refinery projects and have a significant portfolio of new renewables capacity under construction to sustain our growth.

儘管情況不穩定且常常充滿挑戰，但我們轉型業務的財務表現仍保持在正軌上。這些反映了這些平衡和綜合業務的潛在彈性。因此，我們以持續競爭的方式保持成長，並進行價值投資和長期投資。這意味著我們能夠啟動新的優勢生物煉油項目，並擁有大量正在建造的新再生能源產能組合，以維持我們的成長。

Confirmation of the value we are creating is evident in the financial investment we have attracted in both, Plenitude and Enilive. A strong balance sheet remains a key target in our plan, providing resilience, flexibility, and strategic optionality. In March, we said gearing over the four-year plan would range between 15% and 25%. The impact of the strategic acquisition we made to support our growth platform pushed gearing up toward the higher end of that range by the first quarter.

我們對 Plenitude 和 Enilive 吸引的財務投資充分證明了我們正在創造的價值。強大的資產負債表仍然是我們計劃的關鍵目標，提供彈性、靈活性和策略選擇性。3 月份，我們表示四年計畫的負債比率將在 15% 至 25% 之間。我們為支持成長平台而進行的策略性收購的影響推動了第一季向該範圍的高端邁進。

But as we have seen in Q2, even with limited impact of disposal actions, leverage is really inflecting down falling by almost 1.5 percentage points versus Q1. We are executing on our disposal plan much faster than planned. As a reminder, in March, we announced we would deliver EUR8 billion of net portfolio inflows in that four-year plan and indicated we expected the divestment activity to be front-end loaded. In the first six months, we have, in fact advanced this program faster and for better value than anticipated.

但正如我們在第二季所看到的，即使處置行動的影響有限，槓桿率確實比第一季下降了近 1.5 個百分點。我們執行處置計劃的速度比計劃快得多。提醒一下，我們在 3 月宣布，我們將在該四年計劃中實現 80 億歐元的投資組合淨流入，並表示我們預計剝離活動將在前端加載。事實上，在前六個月中，我們比預期更快地推進了該計劃，並獲得了更好的價值。

The announcement deal in Alaska and Nigeria will reduce our leverage by around 3 percentage point, while the sales of a 20% 25% of Enilive will impact our leverage by further 5%, 6%. This means by the end of the year, we now expect leverage to be well below 20% and conceivably towards 15% on a pro forma basis, awaiting the full cash-in of these deals and other planned actions.

阿拉斯加和奈及利亞的宣布交易將使我們的槓桿率降低約3個百分點，而出售Enilive 20%、25%的股份將進一步影響我們的槓桿率5%、6%。這意味著，到今年年底，我們預計槓桿率將遠低於 20%，預計將達到 15%，等待這些交易和其他計畫行動的全額兌現。

And we are working on several additional transactions that will further contribute to our portfolio enhancement and debt reduction. In other words, by the end of the year, we expect to be able to provide visibility either by actions completed, announced or with defined plans. Over the large majority of the transaction, that will be roughly split 50-50 between upstream and the new transition business.

我們正在進行幾項額外的交易，這將進一步有助於我們增強投資組合和減少債務。換句話說，到今年年底，我們預計能夠透過已完成、宣布的行動或明確的計劃來提供可見性。在大部分交易中，上游業務和新轉型業務將大致以 50-50 分攤。

That brings me to our satellite model, crucial source of cash to fuel our growth plan, distribution and to maintain a strong balance sheet. 2024 has been important proof point for the distinctive model we have built. The Plenitude and Enilive transactions that will generate over EUR3 billion in total, representing material deals of aligned capital and attractive multiples with valuable partners.

這讓我想到了我們的衛星模型，這是推動我們的成長計畫、分配和維持強勁資產負債表的重要現金來源。 2024 年是我們建立的獨特模式的重要證明。Plenitude 和 Enilive 交易的總價值將超過 30 億歐元，代表著資本一致的重大交易以及與有價值的合作夥伴的有吸引力的倍數。

This is only a portion of the EUR11 billion cash we generated from dividend disposals and IPOs through our key satellite. Enilive, Plenitude, Azule, and VÃ¥r Energy since their creation. This new capital supports our funding needs and confirms the value we are creating in different businesses and anticipate cash flow generation from these long-term opportunities.

這只是我們透過我們的關鍵衛星進行股息處置和首次公開募股所產生的 110 億歐元現金的一部分。Enilive、Plenitude、Azule 和 Vír Energy 自創立以來。這筆新資本支持我們的資金需求，確認我們在不同業務中創造的價值，並預期從這些長期機會中產生現金流。

Cash generated from our satellite has a double impact on our distribution, accelerating growth in our cash flow from operations as a result of the material increase of these businesses. During the plan VAR and Azule production will grow together by 45%, while Plenitude and Enilive are almost doubling their EBITDA. Diversifying our business and improving our balance sheet, allowing us to progressively announce our distribution policy.

我們的衛星產生的現金對我們的分銷產生雙重影響，由於這些業務的實質成長，加速了我們營運現金流的成長。在計畫期間，VAR 和 Azule 產量將共同成長 45%，而 Plenitude 和 Enilive 的 EBITDA 幾乎翻倍。業務多元化並改善資產負債表，使我們能夠逐步宣布我們的分銷政策。

Finally, let me elaborate on the outlook for the remainder of the year. We now expect reported full-year production to be at the top end of our guidance, implying a growth rate of close to 4%. Similarly, GGP has now significantly de-risk our original EUR800 million pro forma [EBIT] guidance for the year, and we now expect a full-year figure of around EUR1 billion.

最後，讓我詳細闡述今年剩餘時間的展望。我們現在預計報告的全年產量將達到我們指導值的上限，這意味著成長率接近 4%。同樣，GGP 現在已大幅降低了我們最初的 8 億歐元預估 [EBIT] 指導年度的風險，我們現在預計全年數字約為 10 億歐元。

Our main transaction businesses, planning to Enilive remain on course to deliver the combined guidance of [EUR2 billion of pro forma EBIT] this year. Eni full year, pro forma adjusted EBIT and CFO before working capital are expected to be around EUR15 billion and over EUR14 billion, respectively at our current scenario. And in that context, we confirm the buyback will be a minimum of EUR1.6 billion.

我們的主要交易業務（計劃 Enilive）今年仍將實現 [20 億歐元預計息稅前利潤] 的綜合指導。在我們目前的情況下，埃尼全年預計調整後的息稅前利潤和不計營運資本的財務長預計分別約為 150 億歐元和超過 140 億歐元。在此背景下，我們確認回購金額將至少為 16 億歐元。

Thanks to the improved visibility on our divestment program. We will speed up repurchasing through Q3 and Q4 versus our previous plan. Moreover, given the lower expected that in the light of the progress of the M&A, we will be able in the third quarter to evaluate further raise to the distribution share up to the maximum limit of 35% of the budget CFFO, which corresponds so a potential buyback value of additional EUR500 million.

感謝我們的撤資計劃的可見性的提高。與先前的計劃相比，我們將在第三季和第四季加快回購速度。此外，考慮到併購進展的預期較低，我們將能夠在第三季評估進一步提高分配份額，最高可達預算 CFFO 的 35%，這對應於額外回購價值 5 億歐元。

To help with the CFFO profiling for modeling purposes, we can confirm that dividend cash-in from associate should closely approximate the next -- the net income, while the cash tax rate for the full year is expected to be around 31%. Net CapEx is now expected to be and are EUR6 billion, significantly below the previous guidance in line with our updated expectation that year end gearing will be well below 20% and pro forma on deals awaiting formal closing will be even lower than that.

為了幫助進行 CFFO 分析以進行建模，我們可以確認來自聯營公司的股息兌現應該非常接近下一個目標——淨利潤，而全年的現金稅率預計約為 31%。淨資本支出目前預計為 60 億歐元，遠低於先前的指引，這符合我們最新的預期，即年終負債率將遠低於 20%，而等待正式成交的交易預計將更低。

Finally, with the work now underway, we have already identified savings in excess of EUR250 million for 2024, who are raising to around EUR2 billion, the full value of the saving and simplification benefits over the plan period that we announced in March.

最後，隨著目前的工作正在進行，我們已經確定到 2024 年將節省超過 2.5 億歐元，目前我們將在 3 月宣布的計劃期內將節省成本和簡化效益的全部價值提高到約 20 億歐元。

To conclude, we are really pleased with the progress we are making. Our strategy is to invest in our high quality businesses to make Eni more profitable, fund the next phase of growth, work to highlight the full value of our assets, and to deliver a growing and competitive shareholders' distribution. The first half of 2024 has been seen as making clear stride for in terms of operational delivery and the new projects that underpin that growth. This has translated into an excellent financial outcome.

總而言之，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們的策略是投資於我們的高品質業務，使埃尼獲得更多利潤，為下一階段的成長提供資金，努力突出我們資產的全部價值，並提供不斷增長和有競爭力的股東分配。2024 年上半年被認為在營運交付和支撐成長的新項目方面取得了明顯的進步。這已轉化為出色的財務成果。

And in addition, we are also ahead of our expectation in our divestment program in terms of proceeds, value realization, timing, de-risking the business, and accruing further value to shareholders.

此外，我們的撤資計劃在收益、價值實現、時機、降低業務風險以及為股東增加更多價值方面也超出了我們的預期。

The ENI investment proposition is clear, highly competitive growth in the key segment of business related to traditional and transitioned energy; value realization to portfolio management; fast deleveraging and strict investment discipline in prioritizing our significant pipeline of new projects, a competitive and progressive distribution policy supported by the material growth in cash flow generation and balance sheet announcement. With these remarks, I conclude our review of the quarter and now along with the Eni top management, we are ready to answer your questions.

ENI的投資主張是在與傳統和轉型能源相關的關鍵業務領域中實現明確的、極具競爭力的成長；投資組合管理的價值實現；快速去槓桿化和嚴格的投資紀律，優先考​​慮我們重要的新項目，在現金流量產生和資產負債表公告的實質成長的支持下，採取具有競爭力和漸進性的分配政策。至此，我結束了對本季的回顧，現在我們與埃尼高層管理層一起準備回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫納，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you, and congratulations on these numbers. My first question is owned bio-fuels. If you could perhaps share your views on what is currently a rather oversupplied biofuels market? When and how would you expect the rebalancing and for margins to start recovering.

謝謝，並祝賀這些數字。我的第一個問題是擁有的生物燃料。您能否分享一下您對目前供應過剩的生物燃料市場的看法？您預計何時以及如何進行再平衡以及利潤率開始恢復。

And my second question, it's quite unusual to flag a future potential buyback increased. So I wonder if you can talk around the reason. I think it's the first time you're doing it. And also, would you agree that it is linked to the faster pace of asset disposals via a stronger balance sheet? Thank you.

我的第二個問題是，標記未來潛在回購增加是很不尋常的。所以我想知道你是否可以談談原因。我想這是你第一次這樣做。此外，您是否同意這與透過更強勁的資產負債表加快資產處置步伐有關？謝謝。

Okay. Thank you for the question. Stefano Ballista, CEO of Enilive give the answer.

好的。謝謝你的提問。Enilive執行長Stefano Ballista給了答案。

Yes, there is no doubt that actually this quarter has been very challenging for the biofuel business. We recorded the lowest margin ever. And this is a situation actually that is going in continuity with the first quarter and let me say very, very well expected. It's driven by fundamentals of short term -- with a short term view. So it's a transition phase pretty much defined by due to oversupply, both in Europe and in US. And reason are pretty much the same we discussed in previous calls. Like Sweden from one side and a specific step up in terms of capacity in US plus some flows from-- extra flow so from China.

是的，毫無疑問，實際上本季對生物燃料業務來說非常具有挑戰性。我們創下了有史以來最低的利潤率。這種情況實際上與第一季是連續的，我可以說非常非常符合預期。它是由短期基本面驅動的－具有短期觀點。因此，這是一個過渡階段，很大程度上是由於歐洲和美國的供應過剩所造成的。原因與我們在之前的電話會議中討論的幾乎相同。一方面就像瑞典，美國產能的具體提升，再加上一些來自中國的額外流量。

But what is really important is that this is a transition period. Obligation and mandate are strongly in place and define. I just quote some of them like refuel aviation is going to be in place starting from next year. It's going to lead to less than 1 million tonne of extra demand in Europe. And it's going to increase along the time line. And this is the regulation. So there is no debate about when it's going to be fulfilled.

但真正重要的是，這是一個過渡時期。義務和授權已明確到位並明確。我只是引用其中的一些內容，例如航空加油將從明年開始實施。這將為歐洲帶來不到100萬噸的額外需求。而且它會隨著時間的推移而增加。這就是規定。因此，對於何時實現這一目標沒有爭議。

Second core element is the Renewable Energy Directive number three. It has been approved, as we know, each country's as like 18 months to deploy at country level. Target are going to be doubled compared to current one from 14% to 29% in terms of energy content. This is going to be in place starting, let me say, from the second half of next year, given it has been approved end of previous year. And is going to push for a strong extra demand.

第二個核心要素是第三號再生能源指令。據我們所知，它已經獲得批准，每個國家都有大約 18 個月的時間在國家層級進行部署。就能源含量而言，目標將是當前目標的兩倍，從 14% 提高到 29%。鑑於去年年底已獲得批准，該計劃將從明年下半年開始實施。並將推動強勁的額外需求。

On top, I want to mention there are also states that are even now changing some key roles. I want to quote Germany that actually starting from next year will consider UER, no more eligible for bio demand. And so this is going to create an additional demand. So in short, this is could transitionary phase with a market rebalancing in the next future along the 2025 with a potential step-up. And this is the last comment coming from the first evidence on the anti-dumping procedure.

最重要的是，我想提一下，還有一些州現在正在改變一些關鍵角色。我想引用德國的話，實際上從明年開始將考慮 UER，不再符合生物需求的資格。因此，這將創造額外的需求。簡而言之，這可能是一個過渡階段，未來 2025 年市場可能會重新平衡，並有可能進一步升級。這是關於反傾銷程序的第一個證據的最後評論。

We got preliminary and provisional duties that is going to -- in a way it create -- level playing field with the current Chinese flow. And this is going to give an improvement. It's difficult to quantify now, but along the year.

我們獲得了初步和臨時關稅，這將在某種程度上創造與當前中國人流的公平競爭環境。這將會帶來改善。現在很難量化，但全年都會如此。

Yeah. Thank you, Stefano. I just wanted to add something because Stefano was very clear about regulation and what is going to happen in the next month. Looking at the market, what is happening, what we are experiencing in the market is that we have had many, many, many requests from maritime operation, aviation, A lot of different kinds of entities that want to reduce, the CO2 emissions. So we are signing huge number of contracts with these different companies.

是的。謝謝你，斯特凡諾。我只是想補充一些東西，因為斯特凡諾非常清楚監管以及下個月會發生什麼。看看市場，正在發生的事情，我們在市場上經歷的是，我們收到了海事運營、航空、許多不同類型的實體想要減少二氧化碳排放的很多很多要求。因此，我們正在與這些不同的公司簽署大量合約。

So that is the first-hand evidenced that we have in our business. Clearly, we talk about this moment this anomaly that we forecast, but we have to say also that Enilive reacted really very positively. Why this reaction compared also to other operators? Because we are on the value chain. We are in the upstream. So we are in the feedstock with agri-hub, with all the waste and residue. So we try and we study that to stabilize our feedstock.

這是我們在業務中擁有的第一手證據。顯然，我們現在談論的是我們預測的異常情況，但我們也必須說，Enilive 的反應確實非常積極。與其他業者相比，為什麼會有這種反應？因為我們處於價值鏈上。我們在上游。所以我們的原料是農業中心，裡面有所有的廢棄物和殘渣。因此，我們嘗試並研究它以穩定我們的原料。

We have our technology, we have our refineries, then we have a huge retail. So we are not just in the biofuels and bio refineries. And that helped us a lot in the quarter and the semester. So I think that is very important, because that is a first and all accompanying people that every day are on the market and talk with the customers.

我們有我們的技術，我們有我們的煉油廠，然後我們有巨大的零售。因此，我們不僅涉足生物燃料和生物精煉廠。這在本季度和本學期對我們幫助很大。所以我認為這非常重要，因為這是每天在市場上與客戶交談的第一個也是所有陪伴人員。

So the second is for Francesco.

第二個是給弗朗西斯科的。

Yes, on the buyback, clearly what we designed since a few years is a progressive distribution that is linked at the -- mainly to cash flow from operation. But this cash flow from operation, let's say sharing is clearly continually monitored in term of performance, in terms of scenario, and in terms of balance sheet. So as you have seen, the buyback is defined in two ways. We have at the beginning of the year, the overall distribution dividend plus buyback, that was a percentage of the budget and the cash flow from operation between 30% to 35%. We fixed our reference around the middle of that range. And we announced the buyback of EUR1.1 billion.

是的，在回購方面，顯然我們幾年來設計的是一種累進分配，主要與營運現金流相關。但是，來自營運的現金流，比如說共享，顯然是在績效、場景和資產負債表方面受到持續監控的。正如您所看到的，回購有兩種定義。我們在年初的時候，整體分配股利加上回購，佔預算和營運現金流的百分比在30%到35%之間。我們將參考值固定在該範圍的中間。我們宣布回購 11 億歐元。

In the policy also, we stated clearly that the 60% of the upside relative to cash flow from operation would have been shared with our investors, and we announced that in the first quarter results. And now we're in a situation where we can look differently to the bottom line of this distribution policy, the buyback that we originated, designed on the basis of the cash flow of the budget.

在政策中，我們也明確表示，營運現金流的60%的收益將與我們的投資者分享，我們在第一季的業績中也宣布了這一點。現在我們所處的情況是，我們可以以不同的方式看待這種分配政策的底線，即我們根據預算現金流設計的回購政策。

The idea is that substantially, there is a room if in the third quarter, all the deals and progress in the various disposal are confirmed and even enhanced them to review that percentage. So there is still 2%, 3% of additional share of that amount. That at the beginning of the year, if you remember was the [EUR13.5 million] , the cash flow from operation. It means that there is there a potential of EUR500 million of additional cash flow, of additional buyback.

這個想法是，如果在第三季度，所有交易和各種處置的進展都得到確認，甚至增強，以審查該百分比，基本上還有空間。所以這個金額還有2%、3%的額外份額。如果你還記得的話，年初的那是[1350萬歐元]，也就是營運現金流。這意味著有可能產生 5 億歐元的額外現金流量和額外回購。

I will also to say that we have an immediate effect of today of the improvement of our balance sheet and the visibility we have seen in the disposal plan, that is the acceleration. So we are speeding up the pace of our buy back shares. And also in the third quarter, we will have also a review overall of the cash flow from operation, let's say, analysis. And if there is an additional increase of the potential cash flow from operation, there is, again the application of the rule of the 60% upside.

我還要說的是，今天我們的資產負債表的改善以及我們在處置計劃中看到的可見性產生了立竿見影的效果，那就是加速。所以我們正在加快回購股票的腳步。同樣在第三季度，我們也將對營運現金流進行整體審查，比如說分析。如果經營產生的潛在現金流量額外增加，則再次應用 60% 上漲規則。

So we mentioned that there is a floor at the beginning of the year. We improved this floor in the first quarter. Now we are evaluating in the third quarter a potential step-up with different mechanism. So I think that is quite, let's say, progressive, our distribution policy mechanism.

所以我們年初就提到有一個底線。我們在第一季改進了這個樓層。現在我們正在評估第三季採用不同機制的潛在升級。所以我認為我們的分配政策機制是相當進步的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Josh Stone, UBS.

喬許‧斯通，瑞銀集團。

Thanks and good afternoon. Thanks for the presentation and congratulations on the strong results. Two questions, please. Firstly, coming back on disposals, you highlighted an acceleration or you've got good visibility on a very big chunk of your four-year program. So, do you think there's a chance you could actually exceed your EUR10 billion gross divestment target? Or in other words, as you've been reviewing your assets and portfolio, are you finding there's more things to sell or at a higher value than you first expected? Or is this just simply in line?

謝謝，下午好。感謝您的介紹並祝賀取得強勁的成果。請教兩個問題。首先，回到處置上，您強調了加速，或者您對四年計劃的很大一部分有了很好的了解。那麼，您認為您是否有可能真正超過 100 億歐元的總撤資目標？或者換句話說，當您審查您的資產和投資組合時，您是否發現有更多的東西可以出售或價值比您最初預期的更高？或者這只是簡單地排隊？

And second question back on Enilive. One thing that struck me with your -- the KKR announcement was that you're willing to sell up to 25% of the business and then possibly another 10% to another investor. So you're leading in over 65%. So, my question is why sell so much of Enilive now? I understand you get a good valuation. But once it's sold, it's sold. So is are there particular attributes these new partners are bringing to Enilive beyond that particular source of financing? Anything you add that would be great. Thanks.

第二個問題又回到了 Enilive 上。KKR 的公告讓我印象深刻的一件事是，您願意出售最多 25% 的業務，然後可能再出售 10% 給另一位投資者。所以你領先超過 65%。所以，我的問題是為什麼現在要賣這麼多 Enilive？我知道你得到了很好的估價。但一旦賣了，就賣了。那麼，除了特定的融資來源之外，這些新合作夥伴是否也為 Enilive 帶來了其他特殊屬性？任何你添加的東西都會很棒。謝謝。

So thank you for the question about disposal. I say something then maybe Francesco wants to elaborate further. We have accelerate first of all, because we have good assets. So the nature of assets, when we talk about upstream, we said that it's at 50-50, so 50% upstream, 50% transition businesses. But we are good asset. So we have a lot of talks with different kinds of entities and companies that they are interested to our asset.

謝謝您提出有關處置的問題。我說了一些話，也許弗朗西斯科想進一步闡述。我們先加速，因為我們有好的資產。所以資產的性質，當我們談論上游時，我們說它是50-50，所以50%是上游，50%是轉型業務。但我們是很好的資產。因此，我們與不同類型的實體和公司進行了許多談判，他們對我們的資產感興趣。

It has been very fast because we thought to deploy this divestment in the first two years. But in the first six months, practically we are reach the targets. We can't go up or at least EUR8 billion or maybe yes, more on the dual exploration because we found a lot of resources is not a lot of investment. We derisk the asset and that could be a possible additional potential that we can explore in that 2025.

速度非常快，因為我​​們想在前兩年內部署這項撤資。但在前六個月，我們實際上已經達到了目標。我們不能增加或至少80億歐元，或者也許是的，更多的雙重勘探，因為我們發現大量的資源並不是大量的投資。我們降低了該資產的風險，這可能是我們在 2025 年可以探索的額外潛力。

Clearly now we are focused on these projects that we announced and other that we are working on. They are mature, but we will be ready in the third quarter to this to say more. But we have the potentiality to overcome and do better respect to our initial expectation, so better than EUR8 billion, I think yes, we can do that.

顯然，現在我們專注於我們宣布的這些項目以及我們正在進行的其他項目。他們已經成熟了，但我們將在第三季準備好對此說更多。但我們有潛力克服並更好地尊重我們最初的期望，所以比 80 億歐元更好，我認為是的，我們可以做到這一點。

For Enilive, clearly, we try to balance. There is a lot of interest. Their valuation is very good. We want to invest because we have a big component of the two company that is growth, biorefinery is growth and renewables, and the charging point are growth. So I think that we need money and that we understood we have the proof that this company are able to finance themselves without using our capital and our debt.

顯然，對於 Enilive，我們試圖保持平衡。有很多興趣。他們的估值非常好。我們想要投資，因為我們有兩家公司的一個重要組成部分，那就是成長，生物煉油廠是成長，再生能源是成長，充電點是成長。所以我認為我們需要錢，我們知道我們有證據表明這家公司能夠在不使用我們的資本和債務的情況下為自己融資。

So I think that is the reason. We want to progress we want to grow. And when we are able to find very strong, good partners, good investor, very strong that came out of the company that they share our view our project, I think that is a good opportunity.

所以我認為這就是原因。我們想要進步，我們想要成長。當我們能夠找到非常強大、良好的合作夥伴、良好的投資者、非常強大的公司、他們與我們分享我們的專案觀點時，我認為這是一個很好的機會。

I don't know if we are going to do that immediately because we have to finalize the deal yet. So but that is -- there is a clear reason to do that. We want to grow. We want to create more value in this company that are doing very, very well. We reach as evaluation through our strategic investors, EUR22 billion for the full company. That is really a huge number considering that this business until a few years ago -- in different part of Eni with a very low value. So I don't know if Francesco, you want to add something?

我不知道我們是否會立即這樣做，因為我們還必須敲定交易。但那就是──這樣做有一個明確的理由。我們想要成長。我們希望為這家表現非常出色的公司創造更多價值。我們透過策略投資者對整個公司進行了 220 億歐元的評估。考慮到幾年前這項業務在埃尼不同地區的價值非常低，這確實是一個巨大的數字。所以我不知道弗朗西斯科你是否想補充一些東西？

To add let's say we clarify the since the beginning that the EUR8 billion net there was a risked amount that was clearly based on a larger assumption. In that assumption of disposal, we didn't include the outcome of this positive feedback from the market, specifically on Enilive in terms of evaluation and appetite. So there are -- there is clearly room to decide, prioritize, and improve the overall guidance as we said so.

補充一點，假設我們從一開始就澄清了 80 億歐元淨額存在風險金額，這顯然是基於更大的假設。在該處置假設中，我們沒有包括市場正向回饋的結果，特別是對 Enilive 的評價和興趣。因此，正如我們所說，顯然還有決定、確定優先順序和改善整體指導的空間。

Good news.

好消息。

Good news. Absolutely. I think that was clear that was good. And the other element that clearly you mentioned about the potential disposal of our second stake. First of all, this is not included in our forecast. So it is again an upside event or it'll be considered. We need the first to conclude the discussions and negotiations that are ongoing with KKR. It is a deal that tend to be finalized. and after that, we evaluate, due to the fact there is a quite a very strong appetite by the market, if there is an opportunity to make an additional -- join the deal related to that specific asset. So again, it is another positive sign that the assets are extremely interesting for the market and there is a lot of potential valuation coming on.

好消息。絕對地。我認為這很清楚，這很好。您明確提到的另一個因素是關於可能處置我們的第二筆股權。首先，這並不包括在我們的預測中。因此，這又是一個上行事件，否則將被考慮。我們需要先結束與 KKR 正在進行的討論和談判。這是一項即將敲定的交易。之後，由於市場有非常強烈的興趣，我們評估是否有機會進行額外的加入與該特定資產相關的交易。再說一次，這是另一個積極的跡象，表明這些資產對市場來說非常有趣，並且存在很大的潛在估值。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

比拉傑‧博哈塔里亞 (Biraj Borkhataria)，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is just on your LNG growth plans. You continue to build up your options, but mostly through sort of the integrated approach. We haven't seen you do many sort of offtake deals, for example, Gulf Coast US. Is that something that you think would be a good addition to your portfolio? Or would you rather build up in an integrated fashion.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是關於您的液化天然氣成長計劃。您繼續建立您的選擇，但主要是透過某種整合方法。我們還沒有看到你們進行過多種承購交易，例如美國墨西哥灣沿岸。您認為這對您的投資組合來說是一個很好的補充嗎？或者您更願意以整合的方式進行建置。

And then secondly, just going back to the last question on the financial framework, if I was to plug in the disposals in the market, but I understand the risks in your plan, but the ones that are already there, it's possible that I could see Eni at sort of single digit gearing by the end of 2025. So just wanted to get some thoughts on, at what point does your balance sheet not need that additional cash?

其次，回到關於財務框架的最後一個問題，如果我要插入市場中的處置，但我理解你的計劃中的風險，但那些已經存在的風險，我有可能可以到2025 年底，埃尼集團的負債比率將達到個位數。所以只是想知道一下，您的資產負債表在什麼時候不需要額外的現金？

And secondly, one of the things that's happened over the last couple of years is that you've very clearly created more value through building these businesses, then you would have by buying back shares. So I just want to think of -- I wanted to get some color on how you think about the balance between paying out that capital, the excess capital and then maybe increasing CapEx to build these businesses to more scale. Thank you.

其次，過去幾年發生的事情之一是，你透過建立這些業務顯然創造了更多價值，然後你透過回購股票創造了更多價值。所以我只想想一下——我想了解你如何看待支付資本、超額資本以及可能增加資本支出以擴大這些業務規模之間的平衡。謝謝。

Thank you. So the first question is for Guido Brusco, and the second is for Francesco.

謝謝。所以第一個問題是問吉多布魯斯科的，第二個問題是問弗朗西斯科的。

Thank you, Biraj. You spotted rightly. So we are building a portfolio mainly of integrated projects, which spans from the Congo project, which just started up and will we'll increase up to 3 million tonne per annum by the end of next year.

謝謝你，比拉吉。你看對了。因此，我們正在建立一個主要由綜合項目組成的投資組合，其中包括剛啟動的剛果項目，到明年年底我們將增加到每年300萬噸。

We have Mozambique, we have a Qatar, we have Indonesia, which is currently delivering gas for liquefaction only for from the south-hub of the Kutei Basin. But soon we'll have a second hub in the north part, which is pretty exciting.

我們有莫三比克，我們有卡達，我們有印度尼西亞，目前僅從庫泰盆地的南部中心輸送用於液化的天然氣。但很快我們將在北部建立第二個中心，這非常令人興奮。

So as you have seen, this is mostly organic. Reason being our successful exploration campaign in the past in the past year, and we see much more value in the integration rather than buy and sell gas from third parties. I may not rule out some small deals we can have in the future to complement our portfolio. But the growth is essentially linked to the organic component.

正如您所看到的，這主要是有機的。原因是我們去年成功的勘探活動，我們看到整合的價值比從第三方買賣天然氣更有價值。我可能不排除我們將來可以進行一些小交易來補充我們的投資組合。但成長本質上與有機成分有關。

In terms of leverage, clearly, what is our guidance, our references are ranged between 10% to 20%. We are moving faster towards the 15%, the middle of that range. There could be, as we said the upside. We have a lot of additional opportunity that has the materiality to push even lower that leverage. It is important for us to understand that reducing leverage is a value if there is no alternative, but if you have opportunity to invest pipeline of projects and also clearly there is no financial sense. So we are paying 1% net financial cost in that leverage.

在槓桿方面，很明顯，我們的指導是多少，我們的參考範圍在10%到20%之間。我們正在更快地邁向 15%（該範圍的中間）。正如我們所說，可能存在好處。我們還有很多額外的機會可以進一步降低槓桿。對我們來說重要的是要明白，如果沒有其他選擇，降低槓桿是一種價值，但如果你有機會投資專案管道，而且顯然沒有財務意義。因此，我們在該槓桿中支付 1% 的淨財務成本。

So I can push down the leverage to keep the enough buffer for the bad times. But it's also important that I have opportunity where I can invest at a much higher return. So is this balance we want to keep. we think that 10% to 20% range, you could drop below in the lower part of that range. But there this should be the area of comfort that we want to stay.

所以我可以壓低槓桿，為困難時期保留足夠的緩衝。但同樣重要的是，我有機會以更高的回報進行投資。我們想要保持這種平衡。我們認為，在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內，您可能會跌破該範圍的較低部分。但這應該是我們想要停留的舒適區域。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Alejandro Vigil, Santander.

亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾，桑坦德銀行。

Yes, thank you for taking my questions and congratulations for Enilive transaction. My first question is about Plenitude. If in connection with the interest you're seeing Enilive, we could see some also additional interest on selling stakes in Plenitude in the second half of the year.

是的，感謝您回答我的問題並祝賀 Enilive 交易成功。我的第一個問題是關於 Plenitude 的。如果與您看到的 Enilive 的興趣相關，我們可能會看到一些人在今年下半年出售 Plenitude 股份的額外興趣。

And the second question is also regarding the low-carbon strategy, particularly in terms of the CCS. The CCS is an area which you are considering to invest hundreds of millions of billions in the coming years? And what kind of returns are you expecting from these investments? Thank you.

第二個問題也涉及低碳策略，特別是CCS方面。CCS是您考慮在未來幾年投資數億美元的領域？您期望從這些投資中獲得什麼樣的回報？謝謝。

Thank you, Alejandro. For Plenitude I don't think second half because we have other projects more mature, but we had a lot of interest also for Plenitude from big funds and other companies. So Plenitude is there. There is room. We have rooms and clearly also planning to this in the same situation of Enilive, they need money to invest on their growth.

謝謝你，亞歷杭德羅。對於 Plenitude，我認為下半年不會，因為我們還有其他更成熟的項目，但大基金和其他公司也對 Plenitude 很感興趣。所以豐盛就在那裡。有空間。我們有房間，顯然也計劃這樣做，與 Enilive 的情況相同，他們需要資金來投資他們的成長。

They have a very important plan of growth. So is not something that we can exclude. We have to understand that if these investor are serious and want to really -- and share our project, but we have room in Plenitude and we have also we have interest.

他們有一個非常重要的成長計畫。所以這不是我們可以排除的事情。我們必須明白，如果這些投資者是認真的並且想要真正分享我們的項目，但我們在 Plenitude 中有空間，我們也有興趣。

CCS is not a question of how much we are going to invest. CCS is there. is becoming more and more real in terms of project, in terms of acceptance. And in UK, we are proceeding. In few days or weeks, we are going to inject cash in Ravenna. So is there we have a lot of interest from hard-to-abate. So every industry, not just from Italy, but also from France, from Greece. So there is a strong interest, strong movement.

CCS 不是我們要投資多少的問題。CCS 就在那裡。在專案方面、接受方面變得越來越真實。在英國，我們正在繼續進行中。幾天或幾週後，我們將在拉文納注入現金。那麼我們對那裡的興趣是難以減弱的。所以每個產業，不只來自義大利，也來自法國、來自希臘。於是就有了濃厚的興趣，強烈的運動。

Our investment in the model that we now we have in Italy and UK, where we take care about transportation and storage, we don't talk about a lot of investments. And in any case, our model that is based on existing facilities, depleted reservoirs, where we have everything practically because we have all the wells and platform and compressor. So we have just to reverse the flow, maybe three some injector. But it's not a big investment.

我們對現在在義大利和英國的模型的投資，我們關心運輸和存儲，我們不會談論很多投資。無論如何，我們的模型是基於現有設施、枯竭的水庫，我們實際上擁有一切，因為我們擁有所有的井、平台和壓縮機。所以我們只需反向流動，也許三個注射器。但這並不是一項大投資。

So it's a big, big deal, big business, and a lot of interest, and it doesn't need a lot of investment. So the only EV part that relatively expensive with the capture and it's not an investment is a operating cost that we have to perform every time we capture the CO2 depending on the level of percentage of CO2. So it's not really in a very intensive capital deal project, but it is something that can be very useful for the transition. It's going to reduce CO2 for that to abate. And we have a quite interesting advantage and also priority in the system because we are the only one that are performing real projects that are start production now own in few months or in maximum one year. You want to add something, Guido?

所以這是一個很大很大的事情，很大的生意，有很多的興趣，而且不需要很多的投資。因此，唯一相對昂貴且不是投資的電動車部分是我們每次捕獲二氧化碳時都必須根據二氧化碳百分比水平執行的營運成本。因此，這並不是一個非常密集的資本交易項目，但它對於轉型非常有用。它將減少二氧化碳的排放，從而減輕這種情況。我們在系統中擁有非常有趣的優勢和優先權，因為我們是唯一一家正在執行實際專案的公司，這些專案現在將在幾個月或最多一年內開始生產。你想添加一些東西嗎，吉多？

Just to complement what you said, not that much capital and the capital needed will be mainly provided through project financing also, which we've seen appetite from banks and institutions will fund those kind of projects.

只是為了補充你所說的，沒有那麼多的資金，所需的資金也將主要透過專案融資提供，我們已經看到銀行和機構有興趣為此類專案提供資金。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca.

亞歷山德羅·波齊，Mediobanca。

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three. The first one is on GGP, the new guidance out of EUR1 billion. Can you perhaps elaborate on what allowed you to raise the guidance to the EUR1 billion and how you see opportunities in the market for the second half? I'm just trying to understand whether potentially there could be further upside to the EUR1 billion in the second half.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我有三個。第一個是關於 GGP，即 10 億歐元的新指引。您能否詳細說明一下是什麼讓您將指導價值提高到 10 億歐元以及您如何看待下半年的市場機會？我只是想了解下半年 10 億歐元是否還有可能進一步上漲。

Then the second question is on chemicals. Of course, you've set of results is great, the only probably slow point was chemicals that lost still at EUR200 million. Can you give us an update on the restructuring plans for the division?

那麼第二個問題是關於化學物質的。當然，你們所取得的成績非常好，唯一可能的慢點是化學品，其損失仍然為 2 億歐元。您能否介紹一下該部門重組計劃的最新情況？

And finally, I believe only a few weeks ago, the constitutional court in Italy declared part of the windfall tax unconstitutional. I was wondering whether there is any chance of recouping at least part of the taxes paid in the last couple of years. Thank you.

最後，我相信就在幾週前，義大利憲法法院宣布部分暴利稅違憲。我想知道是否有機會收回至少部分過去幾年繳納的稅款。謝謝。

Thank you, Alessandro. So I think Cristian is going to answer the first question and then Andriano for Versalis and then Francesco?

謝謝你，亞歷山德羅。所以我認為克里斯蒂安將回答第一個問題，然後安德里亞諾回答Versalis，然後弗朗西斯科？

Yes. So on the raised guidance, there are three main major elements that actually allowed us to raise this guidance. One is the still sustained trading environment. So we were able to capture value out of the volatility, especially, geographical spreads, especially in Italy, and oil and gas spreads. Second element is the anticipation of some renegotiation that we're expected to close later in the year. Actually, we anticipated that in the second quarter. That helped the result of the second quarter.

是的。因此，關於提出的指導意見，實際上有三個主要要素使我們能夠提出這項指導意見。一是貿易環境依然持續。因此，我們能夠從波動中獲取價值，特別是地理價差（尤其是在義大利）以及石油和天然氣價差。第二個因素是預計我們將在今年稍後結束一些重新談判。事實上，我們在第二季就預期到了這一點。這有助於第二季的業績。

And the third element is linked to an accounting readjustment that actually increased the EBIT, but without an impact on the cash flow. And when it comes to the second semester of the year, so we see still those elements that kicked in the guidance. And so that's why we were able to raise that guidance to EUR1 billion.

第三個因素與會計調整有關，該調整實際上增加了息稅前利潤，但對現金流量沒有影響。當談到今年第二學期時，我們仍然看到指導中提到的那些元素。這就是我們能夠將該指導提高至 10 億歐元的原因。

On Versalis, thanks, thanks Alessandro for the question. As you described, we are really grappling with the continuous negative momentum in term of market, raw material all the variable costs remain pretty high for the chemicals sector. There is a weak demand. On the other side, there is also strong availability of product from import also related to a very weak demand in China that is rerouting a lot of products from US into Europe. So really a negative momentum.

關於 Versalis，謝謝，謝謝亞歷山德羅的問題。正如您所描述的，我們確實正在努力應對市場持續的負面勢頭，化學品行業的原材料所有可變成本仍然相當高。需求疲軟。另一方面，進口產品的供應也很充足，這也與中國的需求非常疲軟有關，中國正在將大量產品從美國轉移到歐洲。所以確實是一種負面勢頭。

In relation to the transformation plan that we present also in the capital market update, we are developing the plan, taking in consideration all the elements that we present in March during the Capital Market update that will enable, as we say, in March, breakeven EBITDA in 2025, a break-even [EBIT] in 2026 and a breakeven cash flow in 2027. Engagement with all the stakeholders are ongoing. We will continue this engagement in the second half. And we are confident that in the call for the result of third quarter, we'll be able to share more ongoing implementation by Q4.

關於我們也在資本市場更新中提出的轉型計劃，我們正在製定該計劃，考慮到我們在三月資本市場更新期間提出的所有要素，正如我們所說，這將在三月份實現盈虧平衡2025 年實現EBITDA，2026 年達到收支平衡[EBIT]，2027 年達到現金流量收支平衡。所有利害關係人的參與正在進行中。我們將在下半年繼續這種接觸。我們相信，在第三季結果的徵集中，我們將能夠在第四季度分享更多正在進行的實施情況。

Okay. Instead about the ruling of the Constitutional Court, clearly the court has recognized that it's under special circumstances, there is a possibility to raise this levy or base it also on a particular structure, the VAT, the delta VAT basis. So it is one-time tax measure originated by the special circumstances. This does not exclude the possibility for us to move for further legal action, in particular related to our gas trading arm that was mainly heavily impacted by the tax and the worst case was not the dealt by the Constitutional Court resolution.

好的。相反，關於憲法法院的裁決，法院顯然已經認識到，在特殊情況下，有可能提高這項徵稅，或者也以特定的結構、增值稅、增量增值稅為基礎。因此，它是特殊情況下產生的一次性稅收措施。這並不排除我們採取進一步法律行動的可能性，特別是與我們的天然氣貿易部門有關，該部門主要受到稅收的嚴重影響，而最糟糕的情況並不是憲法法院決議所處理的。

On the other side, we are going to pay in the next, six months, the last installment of the tax under EUR450 million. And also in the case, we will move our appeal for raising our reason about these taxes. So we will continue to provide or to ask for compensation or reduction in certain cases.

另一方面，我們將在接下來的六個月內支付最後一期稅款，金額不超過 4.5 億歐元。同樣在這種情況下，我們將提出上訴，要求提高我們對這些稅收的理由。因此，在某些情況下，我們將繼續提供或要求補償或減少。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alastair Syme, Citi.

阿拉斯泰爾·賽姆，花旗銀行。

Can I just clarify the position on whether there might be a future IPO of Enilive. I think to the point that was made earlier, you might come down to 65% stakes. So is it question of whether you could go lower than that or is now a future IPO really being held as a future exit for one of the partners like KKR?

我能否澄清一下關於 Enilive 未來是否可能進行 IPO 的立場？我認為就先前提出的觀點而言，您的股份可能會降至 65%。那麼問題是，你的股價是否可以低於這個水平，或者現在舉行的未來 IPO 真的是作為 KKR 等合作夥伴之一未來的退出嗎？

And then secondly, it's widely known out there, there's a large industry farm and opportunity in Namibia. I wonder if you could talk in concept, could you see a role for Azule to be used as an acquisition vehicle? I guess more to the point, are you prepared to put capital into Azule if a good opportunity came up?

其次，眾所周知，納米比亞有一個大型工業農場和機會。我想知道您能否從概念上談談，您是否認為 Azule 可以用作收購工具？我想更重要的是，如果有好的機會出現，你準備好向 Azule 投入資金了嗎？

So thank you. For Enilive first question, Francesco, can give some returns.

所以謝謝你。對於Enilive的第一個問題，Francesco，可以給一些回報。

Yeah. Clearly, the IPO is the goal both for Enilive and Plenitude. The structure of the IPO will require certain mechanism may also it is important to understand, which is the amount that the funds that are involved. first of all, to understand which is the percentage overall of the funds, if it is 1 or 2.

是的。顯然，IPO 是 Enilive 和 Plenitude 的目標。IPO的結構需要一定的機制，了解所涉及的資金數量也很重要。首先，要了解資金佔總數的百分比是多少，是1還是2。

Secondly, which is the kind of funds that have to be -- or have to exit in the liquidity event of an IPO. And in that case, there would be any ca, larger room for them at the beginning for Eni, but it is something that have to be structured. First of all, we have to do the deal with KKR, eventually the second deal. So I think that is quite premature now thinking on the structure of an IPO that will occur in a number of years. In any case, there are different options.

其次，這是在 IPO 的流動性事件中必須退出的資金類型。在這種情況下，埃尼一開始就會有更大的空間，但這是必須結構化的。首先，我們必須與 KKR 達成交易，最終是第二筆交易。因此，我認為現在考慮幾年後將發生的首次公開募股的結構還為時過早。無論如何，都有不同的選擇。

Before giving the floor to Guido, just to clarify something, normally we go through dual exploration model. That means that we go to exploration and then we sell. It's not our habit to do the vice versa. We are not really interested to buy something that has been delisted from somebody else because we are a huge amount of exploration growth, huge amount of discoveries. Azule made -- enter recently in an exploration block, the PL 85. So our strategy very well is different. We are not really seeking derisk exploration. We produced the risk exploration. So Guido, I think I said everything?

在讓 Guido 發言之前，為了澄清一些事情，通常我們會經歷雙重探索模型。這意味著我們先進行勘探，然後再出售。我們不習慣反之亦然。我們並不是真的有興趣購買已經從別人那裡退市的東西，因為我們有大量的勘探增長，大量的發現。Azule 最近進入了一個勘探區塊 PL 85。所以我們的策略非常不同。我們並不是真正尋求去風險探索。我們進行了風險探索。Guido，我想我已經說了一切？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah clear. I doubt about it.

是的，清楚。我對此表示懷疑。

Can I just ask about the IPO concept? Would you be prepared to fall below 50% stakeholding in either Plenitude or Enilive at some point in the future?

可以問一下IPO的概念嗎？您是否準備好在未來某個時候將 Plenitude 或 Enilive 的持股比例降至 50% 以下？

In the Plenitude and Enilive, we wanted to do an IPO with the proper time with the percentage of the market will absorb. And there will be different steps in order to decide what will be the percentage we are going to hold. So speaking about what is our ultimate percentage in these two entities is something that is extremely, extremely premature now.

在 Plenitude 和 Enilive 中，我們希望在適當的時間進行 IPO，並吸收市場的一定比例。我們將採取不同的步驟來決定我們將持有的比例是多少。因此，現在談論我們在這兩個實體中的最終比例是多少還為時過早。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

莉迪亞·雷恩福斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you and good afternoon. Actually, quite a lot of my questions have been asked, but two, if I could. Just coming back to the distribution policy and the additional potential, but I think up to about EUR500 million buyback. What would actually stop you from doing that? When you get to October, if you look at the balance sheet, we're in a good place we've got. Enilive coming through. What would actually stop thank that from happening?

謝謝你，下午好。事實上，我的問題已經被問了很多，但如果可以的話，只有兩個。回到分配政策和額外潛力，但我認為回購金額最多約為 5 億歐元。什麼會真正阻止你這樣做？到了十月份，如果你看一下資產負債表，你會發現我們處於一個很好的位置。艾尼利夫過來了。什麼才能真正阻止這種情況的發生？

And then secondly, I think this is just more of a big-picture question, Claudio, but in terms of the satellite model, how many satellites do you think is actually manageable? And by that I am thinking you've got different -- now you've got Ithaca up in the North Sea. You've got, Azule in Angola. We have Enilive, we have Plenitude. How do you keep that kind of [ENI ESOS] kind of going across everything? Thanks.

其次，我認為這只是一個更大的問題，克勞迪奧，但就衛星模型而言，您認為實際上有多少衛星是可以管理的？我認為你已經有所不同——現在你已經得到了北海的伊薩卡島。你有，安哥拉的 Azule。我們有Enilive，我們有Plenitude。你如何讓這種[ENI ESOS] 貫穿一切？謝謝。

The first, distribution policy who is preventing us to do that now because we are prudent. And we want to have a clear vision, everything clear. We could do now because everything is mature, but we want to be sure that all the capital allocation is done in the right way. It is a responsibility we don't want to run. We don't need now to run is a question of a couple of months. So I think that first of all, we have to understand everything is progressing as we think, as we hope, and it's more likely that everything will be good. But that is the main reason.

首先，分配政策阻止我們現在這樣做，因為我們很謹慎。我們希望有一個清晰的願景，一切都清晰。我們現在就可以這樣做，因為一切都已經成熟，但我們希望確保所有資本配置都以正確的方式完成。這是我們不想逃避的責任。我們現在不需要運行幾個月的問題。所以我覺得首先我們要明白一切都在按照我們的想法、按照我們的希望在進展，而且更有可能一切都會朝著好的方向發展。但這是主要原因。

On the satellite model, Francesco, if you want to say something in respect to the satellite?

關於衛星模型，Francesco，您想對衛星說些什麼嗎？

I think that it proves that with the experience that we have -- mature so far, both with VAR, with the experience of Azule and now with Ithaca that's yet to be completed as you know. I think that we prove there is an opportunity to create this model. This is a bit hybrid versus the traditional model of an oil and gas into the company that wanted to have all the control of everything in different.

我認為這證明了我們迄今為止所擁有的成熟經驗，包括 VAR、Azule 的經驗以及現在伊薩卡的經驗，如您所知，這些經驗尚未完成。我認為我們證明有機會創建這個模型。與石油和天然氣公司的傳統模式相比，這有點混合，該公司希望以不同的方式擁有對一切的所有控制權。

You need to have good management, good capability, to deal with the boards, having a stronger technical relationship, and having the understanding of your counterpart of the market rules. So far, I think that we have seen only benefits in what we have designed as a satellites and the capability to manage the complexity that this will imply.

你需要有良好的管理、良好的能力、與董事會打交道、有更強的技術關係、以及對市場規則的了解。到目前為止，我認為我們只看到了我們設計的衛星的好處以及管理這將意味著的複雜性的能力。

So I like to add that clearly, we are going through a different kind of model. It's I think a is a good model, but that is a challenge for us, which is the challenge that we have to be useful, we have to attract our satellite. These new companies, they have to understand or we have to show that we give -- add value to them. So that is a challenge where we add value, we get our value on technologies. All the technology that the satellite using are our proprietary technology, we update, we update the software, the hardware.

所以我想明確補充一點，我們正在經歷不同類型的模式。我認為a是一個很好的模型，但這對我們來說是一個挑戰，這個挑戰是我們必須有用，我們必須吸引我們的衛星。這些新公司，他們必須理解，或者我們必須表明我們為他們增加了價值。因此，這是一個挑戰，我們要增加價值，透過科技獲得價值。衛星使用的所有技術都是我們專有的技術，我們更新，我們更新軟體、硬體。

So there is a relationship that is going to be -- isn't ready because we are experiencing a very strong relation from a technical point of view, from a general point of view, because they on this new technology we had in the past to reskill, upskill our people. And our people is going these companies and there is a strong link umbilical link because there is skill and the technical capabilities, something that we produce in the corporate, in the corporation.

因此，我們之間的關係尚未準備好，因為從技術角度和一般角度來看，我們正在經歷一種非常牢固的關係，因為他們在我們過去擁有的這項新技術上重新培訓，提高我們員工的技能。我們的員工去這些公司，有一個強大的臍帶聯繫，因為有技能和技術能力，這是我們在公司裡生產的東西。

So I think that is completely different. But clearly, we are facing a different period. We are facing the transition. We are facing a different kind of world. We cannot think that -- we cannot continue to use model that we use 30, 40 years ago. And that is a reason why we moved a few years ago because we understand that the future will be different. We must have different tools.

所以我認為這是完全不同的。但顯然，我們正面臨著一個不同的時期。我們正面臨轉型。我們面臨著一個不同的世界。我們不能認為——我們不能繼續使用我們 30、40 年前使用的模式。這就是我們幾年前搬家的原因，因為我們知道未來會有所不同。我們必須有不同的工具。

Clearly then we have the technology and really the interest that they everybody can shown us because what happened in the different kind of new biorefinery project worldwide, people call us because there are interested at our competencies and at our know-how and technologies. So I think that we have gas, we have oil, but we have also very strong resources that is technology, know-how, R&D, and skilled people.

顯然，我們擁有技術，而且他們每個人都可以向我們展示他們的興趣，因為世界範圍內不同類型的新生物精煉項目中發生的事情，人們打電話給我們，因為他們對我們的能力以及我們的專業知識和技術有興趣。所以我認為我們有天然氣、石油，但我們也擁有非常強大的資源，即技術、專業知識、研發和熟練人員。

Peter Low, Redburn Atlantic.

彼得洛，雷德伯恩大西洋公司。

Thanks. The first was on upstream production. You said that that's now expected to be towards the top end of the guided range? What have you assumed in terms of the timing of disposals within that? And then can you perhaps update on some of the 2024 start-ups in the plan, specifically Cassiopea and Baleine Phase 2, how are they progressing?

謝謝。第一個是上游生產。您說現在預計將達到指導範圍的上限？您對其中的處置時間有何假設？然後您能否介紹一下該計劃中的一些 2024 年初創企業的最新情況，特別是 Cassiopea 和 Baleine Phase 2，它們進展如何？

And then the second question was on your bio-refining targets. I think you've previously targeted 3 million tonnes of capacity by 2026. I thought that included a contribution from Pengerang. I think in the press release today, you said that that might not start-up until 2028. Does that 3 million tonne target still hold? Or could that slip a bit? Thanks.

第二個問題是關於你們的生物精煉目標。我認為你們之前的目標是到 2026 年產能達到 300 萬噸。我認為這包括邊佳蘭的貢獻。我想在今天的新聞稿中，您說這可能要到 2028 年才能啟動。300萬噸的目標是否仍然有效？或者說會不會有點滑落？謝謝。

So the first question is for Guido and the second one for Stefano.

所以第一個問題是問吉多的，第二個問題是問斯特凡諾的。

As we said we are we are expecting to be at the upper bound of the of the guidance, and this is being reinforced by a number of things. First, the good performance on the first half, driven by Ivory Coast, Indonesia, Congo, and Libya. And the confidence we are growing on the startup Cassiopea as we speak, we are at the very last stage of commissioning and first gas is coming soon, is expected in early in early August.

正如我們所說，我們預計將達到指導的上限，並且許多事情正在加強這一點。首先，上半年表現良好，在科特迪瓦、印尼、剛果、利比亞的帶動下。正如我們所說，我們對新創公司 Cassiopea 的信心正在增強，我們正處於調試的最後階段，第一批天然氣即將推出，預計將於 8 月初推出。

On Baleine Phase 2, we just completed the naming ceremony the day before yesterday. So the ship soon will sail. Will be in-country in September. And building on the experience of the Phase 1, we expect a couple of months of final integrated commissioning. So this startup will also happen at the end of the of the year. So the uptime was also pretty low and all the major maintenance are factored into our budget. So I would say we are pretty confident to be in the upper side of the guidance.

巴萊恩二期，我們前天剛完成了命名儀式。所以船很快就要起航了。9月將回國。基於第一階段的經驗，我們預期最終的綜合調試需要幾個月的時間。所以這個啟動也將發生在今年底。因此，正常運作時間也相當短，所有主要維護都計入了我們的預算。所以我想說，我們非常有信心處於指導的上方。

Yes, on bio-refining, actually, all our choices are driven by two key drivers. The first one is to ensure state-of-the-art bio-refining capabilities. This means capability to process 100% waste and residues, high flexibility in order to ship from sustainable aviation fuel to HVO, depending on value pool, driven by market volatility and market demand evolution, very efficient and effective process. This required a detailed deep dive in order to ensure the maximum value creation in whatever context.

是的，在生物精煉方面，實際上，我們所有的選擇都是由兩個關鍵驅動因素所驅動的。第一個是確保最先進的生物精煉能力。這意味著能夠處理 100% 的廢棄物和殘留物，具有高度靈活性，可以根據市場波動和市場需求演變驅動的價值池，從可持續航空燃料運輸到 HVO，非常高效且有效的流程。這需要進行詳細的深入研究，以確保在任何情況下都能創造最大的價值。

And secondly, having a view about the market evolution, the second driver has been getting the right phasing in terms of cash-out, so CapEx and value creation. In order to maximize the IRR of each investment. Given these two main driver, we rephased in a minor way, capacity development. We're going to get to the EUR3 million within the 2027.

其次，從市場演變的角度來看，第二個驅動因素是在現金支出、資本支出和價值創造方面獲得正確的階段性。為了最大化每項投資的IRR。考慮到這兩個主要驅動因素，我們以較小的方式重新調整了能力發展階段。我們將在 2027 年達到 300 萬歐元。

Mikhail Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米哈伊爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you and congratulations again for the strong results. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on your tax rate. It's been quite volatile in the last few quarters. I was wondering what you think could be the best assumption for us to use in the coming quarters?

感謝您並再次恭喜我們取得的優異成績。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是你的稅率。過去幾季的波動相當大。我想知道您認為我們在未來幾季使用的最佳假設是什麼？

And then secondly, I wanted to come back to Egypt. It looks like they are committing to imports of LNG, which effectively imply they will be short gas. Even potentially in winter for the next couple of years, in the last five years, you've effectively turned that country from a net importer to a net exporter of gas. I was wondering if there was anything through exploration or development you could do there, especially connected to your Cronos discovery in Cyprus, which seems to have very good well deliverability and weather there was effectively a political agreement to potentially get it into Egypt. Thank you.

其次，我想回到埃及。看起來他們正在承諾進口液化天然氣，這實際上意味著他們將短缺天然氣。即使可能在未來幾年的冬季，在過去五年中，該國實際上已經從天然氣淨進口國變成了天然氣淨出口國。我想知道您是否可以透過勘探或開發在那裡做任何事情，特別是與您在塞浦路斯的克羅諾斯發現有關的事情，該發現似乎具有非常好的油井交付能力，並且實際上存在一項政治協議，有可能將其進入埃及。謝謝。

Yes, Michele, you are right. I mean, it's open sources information that Egypt has awarded 20 cargo for the summer from now to September. We don't have more visibility than what you -- what we -- I mean the open sources can provide. Clearly, things may change. Import from neighbor country or demand in the country may not raise as expected. So we cannot rule out that few cargo may be exported next winter. But for sure, it is not likely as it was this year.

是的，米歇爾，你是對的。我的意思是，據公開消息稱，從現在到 9 月，埃及已授予 20 批夏季貨物。我們沒有比你——我們——我的意思是開源可以提供的更多的可見性。顯然，事情可能會改變。來自鄰國的進口或該國的需求可能不會如預期增加。因此，不排除明年冬季出口貨物較少的可能性。但可以肯定的是，這種情況不太可能像今年那樣。

In terms of attractiveness of Egypt as a potential hub, clearly, there is this potential. Egypt has capacity in LNG, a capacity of liquefaction, capacity of processing. But this requires alignment between many stakeholders, private, but also government. I know that -- I mean Egyptian government is working on that. But it's quite a long journey.

就埃及作為潛在樞紐的吸引力而言，顯然存在這種潛力。埃及擁有液化天然氣、液化能力、加工能力。但這需要許多利害關係人（私人和政府）之間的協調一致。我知道——我的意思是埃及政府正在努力解決這個問題。但這是一段相當漫長的旅程。

About the tax rate. Yeah, you are correct that there is volatility, but volatility is driven by seasonality, by the contribution of the different segments in line with their seasonal cycles. You know very well that the contribution of the results are driven by GP or by the downstream. This will help to reduce the tax rate while in the quarter, while E&P is dominating the tax rate is a bit higher.

關於稅率。是的，你說得對，存在波動性，但波動性是由季節性驅動的，是由不同細分市場與其季節週期相符的貢獻所驅動的。你很清楚，結果的貢獻是由GP或下游所推動的。這將有助於降低本季的稅率，而勘探與生產占主導地位的稅率略高。

Expectation for the year is to have a 50% tax rate in line what we also present at the beginning of the year, just a bit above it. But there's not -- it's not material, very normal fluctuation. And we aspire to that this 50% will be at top-end in the coming years. So it will probably something in the range of 45% as a percentage in the next four-year plan.

今年的預期是 50% 的稅率，與我們年初提出的稅率一致，僅略高一點。但沒有——這不是實質的、非常正常的波動。我們希望這 50% 在未來幾年能達到最高水準。因此，在下一個四年計劃中，這一比例可能會在 45% 左右。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt Smith, Bank of America.

馬特史密斯，美國銀行。

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Two, please. I mean, lots focus quite rightly on your net CapEx today and the progress there. I just wonder if I could come back to the gross CapEx please. I think like you alluded to your -- the run rate. If we look at the first half result is tracking closer to EUR8 billion rather than the EUR9 billion full-year guidance. I just wondered if you could give us any color on that and what sort of activities that we're looking for the second half of the year, just to conceptualize how that number might move higher throughout the year.

你好。午安.感謝您回答我的問題。請兩位。我的意思是，很多人都非常正確地關註今天的淨資本支出以及那裡的進展。我只是想知道我是否可以回到總資本支出。我想就像你提到的——運行率。如果我們看一下上半年的結果，就會發現接近 80 億歐元，而不是全年指引價值 90 億歐元。我只是想知道您是否可以給我們任何關於這個問題的信息，以及我們在下半年尋找什麼樣的活動，只是為了概念化這個數字在全年中可能會如何上升。

And then my second one would be another question to come back on the buyback, if I could. And that was really just to whether you would be comfortable -- you're talking about the potential for an additional EUR500 million of the buyback, would you be comfortable executing that if the disposals come through in the current macro environment? I guess is my question because I suppose I just wanted to clarify whether you're targeting 35% of CFFO in that scenario, whatever that capacity FFO might be, or whether you're looking to execute on EUR500 million of additional buybacks.

如果可以的話，我的第二個問題將是回購時的另一個問題。這實際上只是你是否願意——你談論的是額外 5 億歐元回購的潛力，如果在當前的宏觀環境下進行處置，你會願意執行嗎？我想這是我的問題，因為我想我只是想澄清在這種情況下您的目標是否是 CFFO 的 35%，無論 FFO 的容量是什麼，或者您是否希望執行 5 億歐元的額外回購。

And I guess I asked the question because I note your CFFO guidance still assumes a Brent price of $86 for the full year, slightly ahead of the price on the screen at the moment. Thank you.

我想我問這個問題是因為我注意到你們的 CFFO 指引仍然假設全年布蘭特原油價格為 86 美元，略高於目前螢幕上的價格。謝謝。

So for the first question gross CapEx, so what I said during the presentation and our expectation is as to stay close -- lower, but close to the EUR9 billion that was our original target is through that. Now if we consider what we spend, the spending in the first half, we are a little bit more than EUR8 billion. So we have space.

因此，對於第一個問題，我在演示期間所說的總資本支出和我們的期望是保持接近 - 較低，但接近我們最初目標的 90 億歐元。現在，如果我們考慮我們的支出，即上半年的支出，我們的支出略高於 80 億歐元。所以我們有空間。

What we have? We have activity that is linked to exploration, to development. So we can save something, we can maybe reduce, but our expectation linked to the activity we have not only in the upstream is to stay close to our initial forecast. It's likely that we can spend a little bit less but that at the moment is our target.

我們有什麼？我們進行與探索、發展相關的活動。因此，我們可以節省一些東西，我們也許可以減少一些東西，但我們的期望與我們不僅在上游的活動有關，而且與我們最初的預測保持接近。我們可能可以少花一點，但目前這是我們的目標。

For buyback, Francesco?

回購，弗朗西斯科？

The buyback, clearly, the scenario -- if we apply the scenario of today, this will not make a major change today to the overall cash flow from operation in the year. So we are speaking about probably a potential impact in the range of EUR300 million, EUR400 million. So this is something that is almost equivalent to a 1% leverage impact. This will not be the major driver of our decision, and clearly the capability to complete, to execute, and to our visibility to the disposal plan. So the 1% is not a big effect that will change the view.

顯然，回購是一種情景——如果我們應用今天的情景，這不會對今年營運的整體現金流量產生重大變化。因此，我們談論的潛在影響可能在 3 億歐元到 4 億歐元之間。所以這幾乎相當於 1% 的槓桿影響。這不會是我們決定的主要驅動力，顯然是完成、執行以及我們對處置計劃的可見性的能力。因此，1% 的影響並不大，不會改變觀點。

Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley.

馬丁‧拉茨，摩根士丹利。

Hi, hello. I don't think I've ever said this, but on this occasion, congratulations for the great quarter. It was just really very impressive. A lot of questions have been asked, but I have one left and that is that I noticed that on slide 3 of the pack that you sent around, it reiterates the EUR17 billion CFFO guidance targets for 2027. So it's a few years out, but it's another step up. And I was wondering if you would felt it appropriate if we were to assume the same structure of the payout on that number as you're now talking about for this year, i.e., 35% payout on the first, [EUR13.5 billion] and then 60% on the increment above that. Is that sort of structure of payout also applicable to the CFFO guidance for 2027?

嗨，你好。我想我從來沒有說過這樣的話，但在這個場合，祝賀這個偉大的季度。這真的非常令人印象深刻。大家提出了很多問題，但我還剩下一個問題，那就是我注意到，在您發送的幻燈片 3 上，它重申了 2027 年 170 億歐元的 CFFO 指導目標。所以雖然已經過了幾年，但這是另一個進步。我想知道如果我們假設今年該數字的支付結構與您現在談論的相同，即第一筆支付 35%，[135 億歐元]，您是否認為合適然後在此基礎上增加 60%。這種支付結構是否也適用於 2027 年 CFFO 指南？

You know that we have this guidance, 30%, 35% and we revise every year. We announced at the Capital Market Day taking into account of various elements, including clearly the scenario, including deleveraging including the structure of the company, moving eventually on growing the role of the transition business, also change the volatility of the results. So it is quite premature to recognize or to announce today what will be potentially the percentage. But the logic behind the distribution policy is clearly to improve even that [percentage] on the basis of the enhancement of the strength of the company. So that will be a natural consequence of this evolution.

你知道我們有這個指導，30%、35%，我們每年都會修改。我們在資本市場日宣佈時考慮了各種因素，包括明確的場景，包括去槓桿化包括公司的結構，最終轉向成長轉型業務的作用，也改變了結果的波動性。因此，今天承認或宣布潛在的百分比還為時過早。但分配政策背後的邏輯顯然是在公司實力增強的基礎上還要提高這個比例。因此，這將是這種演變的自然結果。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

馬特‧洛夫廷，摩根大通。

Thanks, for taking the questions. You've covered a lot of ground already, including a lot of the questions I had. So I'll just limit myself to one. I wanted to come back to GGP. Performance in the first half of the year looks strong. And it's just struck me that that comes in an environment where the conditions for trading and optimization through gas markets have perhaps been less consistent than was the case over the prior couple of years.

謝謝您提出問題。您已經涵蓋了很多內容，包括我提出的許多問題。所以我只限於其中之一。我想回到GGP。今年上半年的表現看起來很強勁。讓我震驚的是，天然氣市場的交易和優化條件可能不如前幾年一致。

So I wonder if you could talk a bit about what you think is differentiated GGP's performance through the first half of the year. And I ask partly because the financial results do suggest when we look forward to '25 plus, that the EUR800 million baseline per year that you provided in March perhaps increasingly looks quite conservative. Thank you.

所以我想知道您是否可以談談您認為GGP上半年的差異化表現。我問這個問題的部分原因是，當我們展望 25 年後的財務結果時，你們在 3 月提供的每年 8 億歐元的基準可能看起來越來越保守。謝謝。

So thanks for the question. Let's say, as we anticipated during the strategy meeting, the market has been reducing in terms of volatility. I mean, just to give you a number, I mean, last year in the first six months, [TTF] movements were around EUR2.2, EUR2.3 per megawatt hour. This year, we are clearly down to EUR0.9 per megawatt hour. So this is a plan which is actually happening.

謝謝你的提問。可以說，正如我們在策略會議上所預期的那樣，市場的波動性一直在減少。我的意思是，只是給你一個數字，我的意思是，去年前六個月，[TTF] 變動約為每兆瓦時 2.2 歐元、2.3 歐元。今年，我們顯然已降至每兆瓦時 0.9 歐元。所以這是一個正在實際發生的計劃。

Having said that this is still -- volatility which actually gives opportunities into the market vis a vis, if you want the period before the energy crisis. And as I told you especially on the geographical spreads, you know that we have a substantial activity in Italy and that actually helped during the first six months. Second, the volatility -- combined volatility between oil, Brent, and hub also that actually give us opportunities. And so those were the two elements I'd say in the first six months that were behind the results.

話雖如此，如果你想要能源危機之前的時期，波動性實際上為市場提供了機會。正如我告訴您的，特別是在地理分佈方面，您知道我們在義大利進行了大量活動，這實際上在前六個月有所幫助。其次，波動性——石油、布蘭特原油和樞紐之間的綜合波動實際上也為我們帶來了機會。這就是我在前六個月所說的兩個導致結果背後的因素。

It's Jon Rigby here. I'm going to have to call it to a close. We run about 10 minutes over, but hopefully that's a reflection of the interest in these results. So thank you very much for your questions. Anybody who has follow-up questions, please contact me or one of the team. And we can arrange to help you with any questions that you have. So thank you very much. I know you've had a long week, get some rest. Have a good weekend. We'll speak soon.

我是喬恩·里格比。我得結束了。我們跑了大約 10 分鐘，但希望這反映了人們對這些結果的興趣。非常感謝您的提問。任何有後續問題的人，請聯繫我或團隊之一。我們可以安排幫助您解決任何問題。非常感謝。我知道你已經度過了漫長的一周，好好休息吧。有一個美好的周末。我們很快就會講。