埃尼石油 (E) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hey, Cheif Transition and Financial Officer. (Operator Instructions)

嘿，首席過渡兼財務長。（操作員說明）

I'm now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you

我現在將您交給主持人，開始今天的會議。謝謝

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Eni third quarter nine months 2024 results conference call. For energy markets continue to be volatile and unpredictable, driven by a mixture of fundamentals, geopolitics as per quarter due to inflows.

謝謝。下午好，歡迎參加埃尼集團 2024 年第三季九個月業績電話會議。由於資金流入，能源市場在基本面、地緣政治等多種因素的推動下持續波動且不可預測。

Our focus on maintaining the resilient and competitive operating and financial performance for enforcing our balance sheet, while funding both reimbursement that into the business and attractive distribution to shareholders and progressing our strategy.

我們的重點是保持彈性和有競爭力的營運和財務業績，以執行我們的資產負債表，同時為業務報銷和對股東有吸引力的分配提供資金，並推進我們的策略。

In the third quarter. We clearly continue to deliver on all those objectives in-country, we need to report the residual results with pro forma adjusted EBITDA of EUR3.4 billion and cash flow from operational of EUR2.9 billion. Despite the deterioration in scenario across most of our main businesses, we also lowered debt and leverage well ahead of our original plan.

在第三季。顯然，我們將繼續在國內實現所有這些目標，我們需要報告預計調整後 EBITDA 為 34 億歐元、營運現金流為 29 億歐元的剩餘結果。儘管我們大多數主要業務的情況都在惡化，但我們也遠遠超出了原計劃，降低了債務和槓桿率。

I will speak in more detail on our results shortly. Let me focus on strategic activities. We are executing at pace around a clearly defined portfolio of businesses. Those businesses are both transition oriented and where Eni is clear competitive advantages and where we can generate competitive growth returns.

我將很快詳細介紹我們的結果。讓我專注於戰略活動。我們正在圍繞明確定義的業務組合快速執行。這些業務都是以轉型為導向的，埃尼在這些業務中具有明顯的競爭優勢，並且我們可以在這些業務中產生有競爭力的成長回報。

Starting with the physician satellite and the revised specifically, we are delighted to have confirmed the investment by KKR into Enilive. The EUR2.9 billion investment for 25% stake supports our growth and confirm the value already created similar to our blending to transactional transaction earlier this year. Possesses a new pool of Allied Capital more appropriate for the different growth and risk profile of this business.

從醫師衛星和具體修訂開始，我們很高興確認 KKR 對 Enilive 的投資。29 億歐元投資 25% 的股權支持了我們的成長，並確認了已經創造的價值，類似於我們今年稍早的混合交易。擁有更適合該業務不同成長和風險狀況的新聯合資本池。

Furthermore, the growth is clear in-country. We sanction to biorefineries South Korea and Malaysia and confirm that the construction work and live audio will be who will begin [soon]. And we will start our first bio jet plant in July at the end of this year.

此外，國內的成長也很明顯。我們對韓國和馬來西亞的生物精煉廠進行了製裁，並確認施工和現場音訊將由誰開始[很快]。我們將於今年年底七月啟動我們的第一座生物噴射機工廠。

Upstream continues to be an add of significant distinctiveness and competitive advantage. In August, we began gas production that will be Argo-Cassiopea Sicily production net zero Scope one and two will quickly ramp up into the winter, contributing to gas supply for Italy.

上游仍然是顯著的獨特性和競爭優勢的補充。8月，我們開始天然氣生產，Argo-Cassiopea西西里島的產量淨為零，範圍一和二將在冬季迅速增加，為義大利的天然氣供應做出貢獻。

John Casper and Balen Phase 2 will start up before the end of the year, contributing to reach our production targets. Also in August and only 10 months after the discovery of Indonesia authorities approved our plan of development of the Northern App in the Cute Basin.

John Casper 和 Balen 二期工程將於今年年底前啟動，為實現我們的生產目標做出貢獻。同樣在 8 月，距離該發現僅 10 個月，印尼當局就批准了我們在可愛盆地開發北方應用程式的計畫。

As well as significant extension to the plateau at our Southern hub centered around the existing Jangkrik FPU. Together these two hubs will account for over 400,000 barrels per day, and then equity is over 80%.

以及以現有 Jangkrik FPU 為中心的南部樞紐對高原的重大擴建。這兩個中心的日產量合計將超過 40 萬桶，權益則超過 80%。

Additionally, we have identified over 30 Tcf for near-field exploration potential offering potentially very material upside. The scale of this opportunity underpins our growth potential beyond the end of the current four-year plan, and of course, offer the opportunity for some early monetization via our proven dual exploration model.

此外，我們還發現了超過 30 Tcf 的近場勘探潛力，具有潛在的巨大優勢。這個機會的規模支撐了我們在當前四年計畫結束後的成長潛力，當然，也提供了透過我們經過驗證的雙重探索模型來實現一些早期貨幣化的機會。

While are currently our main transition satellites, Q3 also saw an important milestone in the development of a new one, CCUS. First CO2 injection began at our Ravena project here in Italy. This is the first plant able to capture more than 90% of the CO2 emitted by our upstream plants.

雖然 Q3 是目前​​我們主要的過渡衛星，但新衛星 CCUS 的開發也取得了一個重要的里程碑。首次二氧化碳注入是在我們位於義大利的 Ravena 計畫開始的。這是第一家能夠捕捉我們上游工廠排放的 90% 以上二氧化碳的工廠。

At the same time, we secured a key milestone of agreed government funding on our iNet CCS project in the UK. As a reminder, we are looking to build over 50 million tonne of capacity before 2030 and grow that to over 40 million tonne in the 2030s, and it is a idle vehicle for a tailored satellite structure.

同時，我們在英國的 iNet CCS 計畫上獲得了政府資助，這是一個重要的里程碑。提醒一下，我們希望在 2030 年之前建造超過 5000 萬噸的產能，並在 2030 年代將其增長到超過 4000 萬噸，而且它是定制衛星結構的閒置工具。

Turning now to our Q3 results in more detail. We reported pro forma adjusted EBIT of EUR3.4 billion and cash flow from operation of EUR2.9 billion, both down just 14% year-on-year despite a deterioration in the scenario. Our upstream business were the standout contributor to our results this quarter.

現在更詳細地討論我們的第三季結果。我們報告預計調整後息稅前利潤為 34 億歐元，營運現金流為 29 億歐元，儘管情況惡化，但年比僅下降 14%。我們的上游業務是本季業績的傑出貢獻者。

Our satellites and associates made up over one-three of our EBIT. Finance expense remains low even before the APPS begin to fall materially while the tax rate of 51% was consistent with this quarter's oil price and earning mix.

我們的衛星公司和聯營公司占我們息稅前利潤的三分之一以上。即使在 APPS 開始大幅下降之前，財務費用仍然很低，而 51% 的稅率與本季的油價和利潤組合一致。

Cash flow from operations for the quarter was EUR2.9 billion, giving EUR10.7 billion for the nine months, a consistent conversion of profits into cash. This has served to cover a working capital build, CapEx, net M&A, the dividend and a portion of the buyback to date.

本季營運現金流為 29 億歐元，這 9 個月的現金流為 107 億歐元，利潤持續轉化為現金。這涵蓋了營運資本建設、資本支出、淨併購、股利和迄今為止的部分回購。

After the effect of the cash out for , net debt that's fallen in Q2 and Q3, even with only modest divestment income. We will see an acceleration of this reduction in the coming quarters. CapEx for the quarter was EUR2 billion, and for the nine months was EUR6.1 billion, minus 10% versus last year. We expect it to be below EUR9 billion for the year, even taking into account the seasonally normal uptick of the first of the last quarter.

在現金支出的影響之後，即使只有少量的撤資收入，第二季和第三季的淨債務也有所下降。我們將在未來幾季看到這種減少的加速。本季的資本支出為 20 億歐元，前九個月的資本支出為 61 億歐元，比去年下降 10%。即使考慮到上個季度第一季的季節性正常成長，我們預計今年該數字也將低於 90 億歐元。

Net CapEx was EUR1.6 billion in the quarter and should be below EUR6 billion, assuming the cash inflow of agreed transaction waiting to close at year-end.

本季淨資本支出為 16 億歐元，假設商定交易的現金流入等待年底結束，則應低於 60 億歐元。

In Global Natural Resources, E&P contributed EUR3.2 billion of pro forma EBIT, with results resilience in the face of lower crude prices and helped by production, up 2% year-on-year. GGP delivered a strong quarter for the summer months, helped by an improving price scenario and spreads and confirming robust results even in a year of limited volatility.

在全球自然資源領域，勘探與生產貢獻了 32 億歐元的預期息稅前利潤，在原油價格下跌和產量的幫助下，業績表現強勁，年增 2%。GGP 在夏季月份的季度表現強勁，這得益於價格狀況和價差的改善，並確認即使在波動有限的一年中也取得了強勁的業績。

In the two key transition businesses, Enilive delivered a strong biorefinery throughput to growth and excellent utilization. EBIT was are by the weak bio scenario, but marketing made a strong contribution. is also continuing along its planned growth trajectory. Year-on-year EBIT was lower versus 2023, but it will beat our budget results on a yearly basis.

在兩項關鍵轉型業務中，Enilive 實現了強勁的生物煉製產能成長和出色的利用率。息稅前利潤是由疲軟的生物場景造成的，但行銷做出了強勁的貢獻。也繼續沿著其計劃的成長軌跡。與 2023 年相比，同比息稅前利潤較低，但每年將超過我們的預算結果。

Net debt and leverage in the quarter were both down and we remain comfortably below the top end of the planned 15%, 25% leverage range despite closing only one major divestment in the quarter, while also stepping up our share buyback and paying a portion of the remaining outstanding extra profit tax balance. But as we've discussed , that is not the full story.

本季的淨債務和槓桿率均有所下降，儘管本季僅完成了一項重大撤資，但我們仍然輕鬆低於計劃的15%、25% 槓桿率範圍的上限，同時還加大了股票回購力度並支付了一部分剩餘的未繳額外利得稅餘額。但正如我們所討論的，這並不是故事的全部。

We have been advancing our portfolio activity faster and for greater value than we anticipated and . Our expectation is that by year-end, pro forma average will be towards the bottom of that range.

我們一直在以比我們預期更快的速度和更大的價值來推進我們的投資組合活動，。我們的預期是，到年底，預計平均值將接近該範圍的底部。

Shareholder distribution remain our first priority. In September, we paid the first tranche of the annual EUR1 dividend, plus 6% versus last year. Our buyback in the quarter totaled EUR560 million or 1.3% of shares in issue, which are now down 12% since we started the program in 2022.

股東分配仍然是我們的首要任務。9 月份，我們支付了第一筆 1 歐元的年度股息，比去年增加了 6%。我們本季的回購總額為 5.6 億歐元，佔已發行股票的 1.3%，自 2022 年啟動該計畫以來，回購金額現已下降 12%。

As we reduce shares in issue, this adds further along with the business performance and the balance sheet strength to the quality and value of our dividend.

隨著我們減少已發行股票，業務績效和資產負債表實力將進一步提高我們股利的品質和價值。

With that balance sheet improvement in mind and the continued success in our portfolio program, we also confirm today an increase in the 2024 share buyback. We now plan to repurchase EUR2 billion in the program, an increase EUR400 million, delivering on our commitment announced at Q1 and in addition, reflecting the better-than-planned progress in our M&A. At today's share price, our distribution yield is 11.5%.

考慮到資產負債表的改善以及我們投資組合計劃的持續成功，我們今天也確認了 2024 年股票回購的增加。我們現在計劃在該計劃中回購 20 億歐元，增加 4 億歐元，兌現我們在第一季度宣布的承諾，此外，也反映出我們的併購進展優於計劃。以今天的股價計算，我們的分配收益率為 11.5%。

Our efforts on growing new transition business has broader implication. It is also an opportunity to build new highly attractive opportunities around our chemicals sector. Fixing the result of this loss-making segment will be a significant contributor to the earnings and cash flow potential we see for Eni going forward and is a real priority for us. Since March, we have been developing a detailed plan, which we now want to take the opportunity to share with you.

我們在發展新的轉型業務方面所做的努力具有更廣泛的意義。這也是圍繞我們的化學品行業建立新的極具吸引力的機會的機會。解決這個虧損部門的結果將對埃尼未來的獲利和現金流潛力做出重大貢獻，也是我們真正的首要任務。3月以來，我們一直在製定詳細的計劃，現在想藉此機會與大家分享。

We also had the opportunity to share this with the unions. Versalis has accumulated material loss over the past years, and this negative trend as continued through 2024. Our response is one of both restructuring and transformation.

我們也有機會與工會分享這一點。Versalis 在過去幾年中累積了重大損失，這種負面趨勢將持續到 2024 年。我們的應對措施是重組和轉型。

The future platform of Versalis will have a significantly different profile, one focused on a high-value downstream portfolio of compounding and specialized polymers, one on biochemistry and on circular economy, a portfolio more consistent with the Eni technology-led strategy, focused on competitively advantaged businesses into the transition.

Versalis 的未來平台將具有顯著不同的特徵，一個專注於複合和特種聚合物的高價值下游產品組合，一個專注於生物化學和循環經濟，一個產品組合與埃尼技術主導的戰略更加一致，專注於競爭性優勢企業進入轉型期。

This transformation can leverage the results of a highly skilled workforce, but dedicated it to higher value and more sustainable activities.

這種轉變可以利用高技能勞動力的成果，但將其致力於更高價值和更永續的活動。

At Priolo, we are evaluating constructing a biorefinery for chemical recycling plant, employing our HOP technology.

在 Priolo，我們正在評估採用我們的 HOP 技術建造化學回收廠的生物精煉廠。

At Brindisi, we target to continue polymer manufacturer by using cost advantage imported raw materials, and we will convert a part of the site to the construction of a new factory facilities for the manufacturing of stationary network batteries. In the meantime, we plan to shut down cracking at both Priolo and Brindisi. We will also look to exit or significantly reduce our exposure at Durkirk.

在布林迪西，我們的目標是透過使用具有成本優勢的進口原材料繼續進行聚合物製造，我們將把部分場地改建為建造新的工廠設施，用於製造固定網路電池。同時，我們計劃關閉普里奧洛和布林迪西的裂解。我們還將尋求退出或大幅減少在 Durkirk 的風險敞口。

This is a necessary response to the structural disadvantage European basic chemicals manufacturing phases versus other regions. And we will reduce polymer capacity by sheeting polyethylene production at . You will be aware, we closed operation at earlier this year, further initiatives to drive efficiency in polymers might also be taken.

這是針對歐洲基礎化學品製造階段相對於其他地區的結構性劣勢的必要回應。我們將透過在以下時間生產片材聚乙烯來減少聚合物產能。您會知道，我們在今年稍早關閉了運營，還可能採取進一步的舉措來提高聚合物的效率。

The European chemicals industry as far as deteriorated in 2024 and it is not expected to improve in 2025. In this context, our expectation is to move to positive EBIT in 2027 and free cash flow breakeven in 2028.

歐洲化學工業在 2024 年將惡化，預計 2025 年不會有所改善。在此背景下，我們的預期是在 2027 年實現正息稅前利潤，在 2028 年達到自由現金流損益平衡。

We are comfortable on the ultimate success of this turnaround as we faced similar issues over a decade ago in our refining operation. The transformation path we show then by refining evolved into any live with the resulting scale of ensuring value creation, we have been able to specifically highlight today. Moving to guidance.

我們對這次轉型的最終成功感到滿意，因為十多年前我們在煉油業務中也遇到類似的問題。我們展示的轉型路徑透過精煉演變為任何現場，並確保價值創造的最終規模，我們今天能夠特別強調。轉向指導。

Full year Upstream production is expected around 1.7 million barrels per day. The middle of the original guidance, reflecting the expected impact of OPEC plus quarters. GGP pro forma EBIT is raised again to EUR1.1 billion, while we confirm our transition businesses to deliver EBITDA of EUR1 billion each.

預計全年上游產量約為每天 170 萬桶。中間原來的指導，反映了OPEC加季度的預期影響。GGP 預計 EBIT 再次上調至 11 億歐元，同時我們確認我們的轉型業務將實現每項 EBITDA 達到 10 億歐元。

Group pro forma EBIT and cash flow from have been reduced from Q2 on the lower scenario assumption, but reflect the outperformance versus the original plan of more than EUR1 billion in each case. We can confirm gross CapEx below EUR9 billion and net CapEx well below EUR6 billion, and I have already discussed the outlook for leverage. And this provides a setting for the risk buyback to EUR2 billion from EUR1.6 billion and EUR1.1 billion in the original guidance.

在較低情境假設下，集團預計息稅前利潤和現金流量將較第二季度有所減少，但反映了每種情況下的業績優於原計劃超過 10 億歐元。我們可以確認總資本支出低於 90 億歐元，淨資本支出遠低於 60 億歐元，而且我已經討論了槓桿的前景。這為風險回購從最初指引中的16億歐元和11億歐元增至20億歐元奠定了基礎。

For the purpose of modeling our cash flow from operation for the fourth quarter, you should assume dividends from associate exceeding net income by around 25%. Our that also holds for the full year, while the cash tax rate will revert to a more normal level in the low 30s down from Q3.

為了對第四季度的營運現金流進行建模，您應該假設聯營公司的股息超過淨利潤約 25%。我們的情況也適用於全年，而現金稅率將恢復到較第三季低 30 多歲的更正常水準。

To summarize, Q3 represents a very good quarter amid a volatile and challenging environment. We have significantly advanced strategy, developing growth in advantaged business and securing value. We are addressing underperforming activity with the prospect of materially improving financial performance, and we continue to pursue our cost reduction program that has already achieved the EUR300 million of savings that we planned for this year.

總而言之，在動盪和充滿挑戰的環境中，第三季是一個非常好的季度。我們擁有顯著先進的策略，在優勢業務中發展成長並確保價值。我們正在解決表現不佳的活動，以期大幅改善財務業績，並繼續推行成本削減計劃，該計劃已實現我們今年計劃的 3 億歐元節省。

Our recently announced reorganization reinforce our action in each of these aspects. But critically, our financial performance continue to be highly competitive and resilient. Indeed, we are now positioned in a historically strong situation financially and strategically, and this is confirmed in our decision to raise our 2024 share buyback.

我們最近宣布的重組強化了我們在各方面的行動。但至關重要的是，我們的財務表現仍具有高度競爭力和彈性。事實上，我們現在在財務和策略上都處於歷史上強勁的局面，這一點在我們提高 2024 年股票回購的決定中得到了證實。

That ends my remarks, and now together with Eni top management, I am ready to answer your questions. Thank you.

我的發言到此結束，現在我準備與埃尼高層一起回答大家的問題。謝謝。

Thank you. The conference operator will now begin the question-and-answer session.(Operarator Instruction) .

謝謝。會議操作員現在將開始問答環節。

Josh Stone with UBS.

瑞銀集團的喬許史東。

Thanks. Good afternoon. Two questions, please. Firstly, on and congratulations on getting the deal over the line at a still attractive valuation. At the time of the initial agreement, you highlighted the potential of maybe sort of another 10% of that business, but given you sold the higher end at 25% to KKR, can you just update us how much of a priority is that for Eni today?

謝謝。午安.請教兩個問題。首先，請祝賀並以仍具有吸引力的估值完成交易。在達成初步協議時，您強調了該業務的另外 10% 的潛力，但考慮到您以 25% 的價格將高端業務出售給 KKR，您能否向我們介紹埃尼集團優先考慮的情況？ ？

And then second question on the petrochemical restructuring, and you provided some helpful slides on that. Maybe you can just talk about the path towards profitability from here. How soon should we expect to see a benefit from some of these initiatives in particularly closing some of these less competitive crackers? And also, maybe what was the response from the unions, or what has been the response from the union so far on this? And is your target still to reach breakeven EBITDA in 2025, is that still valid?

然後是關於石化重組的第二個問題，您提供了一些有用的幻燈片。也許你可以從這裡談談獲利之路。我們應該多久才能看到這些措施帶來的好處，特別是關閉一些競爭力較弱的裂解廠？另外，也許工會的反應是什麼，或者到目前為止工會對此有何反應？您的目標是否仍要在 2025 年達到損益兩平 EBITDA，這仍然有效嗎？

Okay. Thank you, Josh. I will answer to the first question about relive and I will leave the floor to Adriano Alfani for the chemicals. On Eni, clearly, you remember currently, we had once we announced the exclusive agreement for negotiation with KKR that we have the range of 10% sorry, 20% to 25% of disposal and from 5% to 10% of the additional potential interest or stake that could be, let's say, put on sale.

好的。謝謝你，喬許。我將回答關於重溫的第一個問題，我將把化學問題留給阿德里亞諾·阿爾法尼。關於埃尼，顯然，你現在還記得，我們​​曾經宣布與 KKR 談判的獨家協議，我們有 10% 抱歉、20% 至 25% 的處置以及 5% 至 10% 的額外潛在權益。出售的股份。

Clearly, having the 25%, we are now moving to the lower end to a lower part of the range of the 5% to 10%. So we wanted to see if clearly, there is an opportunity to, say, eventually bring another partner with a smaller stake clearly not at 10% because we will have, let's say, a large disposal of 25% plus an additional 10% if we move to the top end of the both options.

顯然，有了 25%，我們現在正在向 5% 到 10% 範圍的下端移動。因此，我們想清楚地看看是否有機會，比如說，最終引入另一個股權較小的合作夥伴，顯然不是10%，因為我們將擁有，比如說，大量處置25% 的股份，再加上額外的10%，如果我們移至兩個選項的頂端。

This is the reason we move. We think that is more appetite to keep the lower percentage as a reference. And now I'll leave it to Adriano.

這就是我們搬家的原因。我們認為，保留較低百分比作為參考是更有興趣的。現在我將把它留給阿德里亞諾。

Thanks, Josh, for the three questions about the chemical. Let me start with the first 1 about the improvement in the results that we expect. To be honest with you, from a market point of view, we don't expect a significant improvement. We still see a green outlook. There is no meaningful economic recovery this time for the 2025 and also for the end of 2024.

謝謝喬希提出三個關於化學物質的問題。讓我從第一個關於我們預期結果的改進開始。老實說，從市場角度來看，我們預計不會有顯著改善。我們仍然看到綠色前景。這次2025年以及2024年底都不會出現有意義的經濟復甦。

So the improvements that we expect in the economics of Versalis are mainly coming in this context of scenario from action that we are going to put in place. That means restructuring the base chemical portfolio and on the other side, developing and growing the new platforms that Francesco was referring in his speech.

因此，我們預期 Versalis 經濟狀況的改善主要來自於我們將採取的行動。這意味著重組基礎化學品組合，另一方面，開發和發展弗朗西斯科在演講中提到的新平台。

How fast the improvement will come, clearly gradually and depending on the speed that we are going to execute all the intervention from a restructuring point of view that we see over the next 4, 5 years gradually improving. Of course, an improvement in the scenario in terms of possible recovery will help in order to have a bolster in execution plan.

改善的速度有多快，顯然是漸進的，取決於我們從重組的角度執行所有乾預措施的速度，我們認為在未來 4、5 年裡會逐漸改善。當然，在可能的恢復方面改進場景將有助於加強執行計劃。

But at this moment, we would like to be a little more, let's say, in the outlook from a demand point of view for the reason that I was explaining based on some developing in the market, automotive sector in Europe, construction and so on.

但目前，我們想從需求的角度進行更多的展望，因為我是根據市場、歐洲汽車產業、建築等的一些發展來解釋的。

In terms of response from union, every time that, of course, you present an aggressive plan, this was a pretty aggressive plan in terms of restructuring, there are many questions. Fundamentally, they understand that the time for the base chemical situation in Europe is extremely challenging. And of course, the company cannot continue in losing cash. And so something must be done. And so they are fundamentally onboarding in order to do many different actions in order to improve and to create the sustainability for the future, not only in term of economic sustainability but also in term of, of course, people sustainability in terms of employment and so on.

就工會的反應而言，每次你提出一項激進的計劃時，這是一個在重組方面相當激進的計劃，就會有很多問題。從根本上來說，他們明白當前歐洲的基礎化學品情勢極具挑戰性。當然，公司不能持續虧損。因此必須採取一些行動。因此，他們從根本上來說是為了採取許多不同的行動來改善和創造未來的可持續性，不僅是在經濟可持續性方面，當然也包括在就業等方面的人員可持續性方面。

From an EBITDA point of view, that is the third question for 2025, at this moment, it is unlikely that we can be breakeven EBITDA in 2025 in this context of a scenario. But of course, in case of improvement, I mean, we can target in order to be significantly better than in 2024 in the performance of EBITDA for 2025.

從 EBITDA 的角度來看，這是 2025 年的第三個問題，目前，在這種情況下，我們不太可能在 2025 年實現盈虧平衡 EBITDA。但當然，如果有所改善，我的意思是，我們可以設定 2025 年 EBITDA 表現明顯優於 2024 年的目標。

The next question is from Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca ahead.

下一個問題來自Mediobanca 的Alessandro Pozzi。

Thank you for taking my questions. I have to two. And the first three1 is on disposals. So this year, we have EUR3 billion of cash in. You've done you've announced a lot of transactions. But based on what we read in the press, there's a lot more that potentially is going to come through in maybe in 2025.

感謝您回答我的問題。我必須兩個。前三個是處置。所以今年我們有 30 億歐元的現金。您已經宣布了很多交易。但根據我們在媒體上讀到的信息，到 2025 年可能還會發生更多事情。

And I was wondering if you can help us to understand how much of the cash in could be next year? If we use, again, EUR3 billion, is it a good assumption? If you can maybe give us a bit more color on what you have maybe at the moment, the opportunities that are more mature compared to others in terms of disposals, if you can.

我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解明年可能有多少現金？如果我們再使用 30 億歐元，這是一個很好的假設嗎？如果可以的話，您可以給我們更多關於您目前擁有的東西的信息，在處置方面與其他人相比，這些機會更加成熟。

The second question is on Indonesia. You mentioned in the opening remarks that you received approval from new development plans. And I was wondering what sort of activities we could see in Indonesia next year. You mentioned 400,000 barrels potentially could be achieved by the end of the plan.

第二個問題是關於印尼的。您在開場白中提到，新的發展計畫已獲得批准。我想知道明年我們可以在印尼看到什麼樣的活動。您提到到計劃結束時可能會達到 40 萬桶。

I was wondering what is the shape of the production growth that we could see from Indonesia in the next few years?

我想知道未來幾年印尼的產量成長會是什麼樣的？

Thank you. Okay. I will answer to the first question about the disposal, and then I will leave the answer to Guido Bruce for the Indonesia activity. About on disposal, you know that we have a net M&A cash in expected in this in 2024 or 3.6%. We raised versus the original assumption. Clearly, this includes not only the cash incoming from the disposal, but also the cash out that was mainly concentrated at the beginning of the year once we paid the acquisition of Lepton and a smaller acquisition in the renewable segment.

謝謝。好的。我將回答關於處置的第一個問題，然後我將把答案留給吉多布魯斯（Guido Bruce）進行印尼活動。關於處置，您知道我們預計 2024 年的淨併購現金為 3.6%。我們提出了與最初的假設相對應的假設。顯然，這不僅包括處置所得的現金，還包括主要集中在年初我們支付收購 Lepton 和再生能源領域較小規模收購費用後的現金支出。

For next year, the expectation is to have additional disposal that are maturing, and these are the origin of the expectation we have on leverage pro forma, and the range of cash in that we can expect next year is around EUR2.5 billion. So these are the two figures to keep in mind. This is clearly coming from the disposal. There could be some smaller additional disposal and acquisition that we consider, let's say, covering or offsetting each other.

對於明年，預計會有更多即將到期的處置，這是我們對槓桿預計的預期的來源，我們預計明年的現金範圍約為 25 億歐元。因此，這是需要記住的兩個數字。這顯然是來自處置。我們認為可能會有一些較小的額外處置和收購，比如說，相互覆蓋或抵消。

And now I leave to Guido the second answer.

現在我把第二個答案留給吉多。

And so thank you first of all, thank you for the question. And let me start with providing some more background on the scale of the asset in Indonesia. So first of all, this year, we've completed our evaluation of the discovery of Gang North. That is confirming a potential of 5 Tcf of gas. And of course, the scale of this discovery is creating a critical mass also for the development of some resources discovered and acquired as a part of the transaction we did last year with Chevron. The discovered resources of that transaction accounts for a number close to another 5 Tcf, which, of course, will be complementing the Ganga North discovery.

首先謝謝你提出這個問題。首先讓我提供一些有關印尼資產規模的更多背景資訊。首先，今年我們完成了北崗發現的評估。這證實了氣體的潛力為 5 Tcf。當然，這項發現的規模也為我們去年與雪佛龍交易中發現和獲得的一些資源的開發創造了臨界質量。該交易已發現的資源量接近另外 5 Tcf，這當然將補充 Ganga North 的發現。

So if we consider both the plan of development for the North hub, which is Ganga North and those discoveries, plus the additional resources that will bring in into the south hub, we envisage a combined production at regime of over than 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which is, give and take, 2 Bcf of gas and 80,000 barrels of condensate. On top of that, we have an exploration potential, which we estimated in the region of of course, unrisked of [ 10 ] Tcf of gas, which we have significantly derisked by the nearby discoveries.

因此，如果我們考慮北部樞紐（即 Ganga North）的開發計劃和這些發現，再加上將帶入南部樞紐的額外資源，我們預計該地區的綜合產量將超過 400,000 桶石油當量每天，即提供和獲取2 Bcf 的天然氣和80,000 桶凝析油。最重要的是，我們有勘探潛力，我們估計該地區當然沒有天然氣 [10] Tcf 的風險，但我們已經透過附近的發現大大降低了風險。

Clearly, the discovery of Ganga North have allowed a more detailed reconstruction of the geological model. And now we think that this potential is well and better and risks. And so we are targeting also quite a significant number of exploration wells in the basin in the next four years. So that's in a nutshell what will look like the Indonesia asset in the forthcoming years.

顯然，恒河北的發現使得地質模型能夠得到更詳細的重建。現在我們認為這種潛力很好，但也有風險。因此，我們的目標是在未來四年內在該盆地進行相當數量的勘探井。簡而言之，這就是未來幾年印尼資產的樣子。

To come to your question and of course, we can leverage on the existing facilities and the excess capacity of the liquefaction plant of Bontang, which is nearby and which has a total capacity of more than 20 million tonnes per annum, with only three train operational of 10 million tons per annum and utilization of less than 60% last year. So we can clearly leverage on that. And as you know, we are in the premium market.

回答你的問題，當然，我們可以利用現有設施和附近 Bontang 液化廠的過剩產能，該廠的年總產能超過 2000 萬噸，只有 3 列列車在運行年產能1000萬噸，去年利用率不足60 %。所以我們可以清楚地利用這一點。如您所知，我們處於高端市場。

To come to your question, which is the activity we are doing. We are now in the front-end engineering design of the facilities. We are also starting we have already started the drilling activity in August to develop some fields discovered close to the South Hub, namely Maracas East. And the rig, of course, will continue the activity in the South Hub in 2025 and 2026. While we will take very likely by the end of the year or beginning of the next an FID on the North Hub.

回答你的問題，這就是我們正在做的活動。我們現在正在進行設施的前端工程設計。我們也已於 8 月開始鑽探活動，以開發一些靠近南部樞紐（即 Maracas East）發現的油田。當然，該鑽機將在 2025 年和 2026 年繼續在南樞紐進行活動。雖然我們很可能會在今年年底或明年年初對北部樞紐進行最終投資決定。

Just on the EUR400 million how much will it be for domestic, let's say, sales? And how much do you think you can export to Bontang?

就這 4 億歐元而言，國內銷售額是多少？您認為可以向邦唐出口多少錢？

On the this is a number which evolves over time. But on the entire life of the field, the domestic component will be in the region of 25%, 30%.

這是一個隨著時間的推移而變化的數字。但就該領域的整個壽命而言，國產元件將在25%、30%左右。

Giacomo Romeo with Jefferies.

賈科莫·羅密歐與傑弗里斯。

Two questions for me. The first one, Francesco, is on distributions. Your EUR2 billion that you got to today, that's ahead of your CFFO distribution range. Just trying to understand how to think about this in the context of your now lower moving into a lower level of leverage? Do you think that this upper level is what is effectively sustainable in the current the context of the current pro forma leverage?

有兩個問題問我。第一個是弗朗西斯科，正在發行。您今天獲得的 20 億歐元，超出了您的 CFFO 分配範圍。只是想了解如何在您現在進入較低槓桿水平的背景下思考這個問題？您認為在目前備考槓桿的背景下，這個較高水準是有效且可持續的嗎？

The second is on chemicals. I'm just trying to reconcile the EUR1 billion CapEx that you announced at the CMD that was for the n'24, '27 period, with the EUR2 billion that you now have for the five years. Do you think that you're just going to need more investment to get to that free cash flow breakeven level? Is it a timing issue? And when is the when do you think is the right time to bring in the partner in these assets?

第二個是化學品。我只是想將您在 CMD 上宣布的 24 年、27 年期間的 10 億歐元資本支出與您現在五年內的 20 億歐元資本支出進行核對。您是否認為您只需要更多投資即可達到自由現金流損益兩平水準？是時間問題嗎？您認為何時是引入這些資產合作夥伴的適當時機？

Okay. On the distribution, yes, it's correct that clearly, we are above the 35% limit. If you remember, we came through to this number through different steps. So the first step was in the first quarter. Once there was an expectation or revision in particular on scenario that raised the amount of cash flow we are expecting for this year, and we shared accordingly what we have already announced in our distribution policy, the 60%, the 60% of, let's say, upside.

好的。關於分佈，是的，這是正確的，顯然我們超出了 35% 的限制。如果您還記得的話，我們是透過不同的步驟得出這個數字的。所以第一步是在第一季。一旦有預期或修改，特別是對提高今年現金流量的情況，我們相應地分享了我們已經在分配政策中宣布的內容，60％，60％，比方說，上行。

And this has brought our distribution for one sorry, the buyback part of the distribution from EUR1.1 million to EUR1.6 billion. Then in July, we announced that taking into account of the highly acceleration, the high acceleration and the materiality of the disposal plan, we were able to consider to bring that percentage of distribution of the cash flow that was originally the 32% applied to the cash flow from operation generated with the scenario we are assuming in the second forecast up to the limit of 35%.

遺憾的是，這導致我們的分配回購部分從 110 萬歐元增加到 16 億歐元。然後在7月份，我們宣布，考慮到處置計劃的高加速性、高加速性和實質性，我們能夠考慮將原來32%的現金流量分配比例納入到處置計劃中。的情況下產生的經營現金流量上限為35%。

This has, let's say, brought the potential additional distribution to more an additional EUR500 million. So the EUR1.6 billion could that be raised up to EUR2.1 billion. We decided to distribute to reach the EUR2 billion that we announced today, that is equivalent now to revise the cash flow from operations because of the scenario to something in the range of 37%, 38%.

可以說，這使得潛在的額外分配金額增加了 5 億歐元。因此，16 億歐元可能會增至 21 億歐元。我們決定分配達到今天宣布的 20 億歐元，相當於現在將營運現金流修改為 37% 至 38%。

This percentage could be, let's say, sustainable in the future. Clearly, it's part of a discussion we will see next year with the new plan. So taking into account all the various element that will let's say, characterize the new plane, the scenario, the CapEx, the activity, the portfolio, et cetera, et cetera. But on a general rule, the idea is that we want to reinforce the company.

可以說，這個百分比在未來可能是可持續的。顯然，這是我們明年將在新計劃中看到的討論的一部分。因此，要考慮到所有不同的元素，例如描述新飛機、場景、資本支出、活動、投資組合等等。但一般來說，我們的想法是加強公司實力。

The company will be reinforced by growing, diversifying its business, maturing new business lines and enhancing or bringing back to profitability other negative lines. And all this will help to have a larger distribution, a progressive distribution.

該公司將透過業務成長、多元化、成熟的新業務以及增強或恢復其他負面業務的盈利能力來增強公司實力。所有這些都將有助於實現更大的分配，漸進的分配。

So I cannot answer you specifically on figures, but I can answer you on a qualitative term and the principle that will drive our distribution policy.

所以我不能具體回答你的數字，但我可以回答你的定性術語和驅動我們分配政策的原則。

And now Adriano for the other question on Chemicals.

現在阿德里亞諾回答有關化學物質的另一個問題。

Thanks, Giacomo, again for the question. So let me go back to March when we announced the preliminary plan in terms of restructuring of the chemical portfolio. At that time, we had an outlook for the market and based on the outlook for the market, we estimate that over the four year plan, we were in needs of roughly EUR1 billion of investment for the chemical sector in order to transform so to restructure some piece of the chemical sector and in order to develop a new platform that are still the same platform that we are talking today.

再次感謝賈科莫提出的問題。讓我回到三月份，當時我們宣布了化學產品組合重組的初步計劃。當時我們對市場有一個展望，根據對市場的展望，我們估計在四年計劃中，我們化工行業需要大約10億歐元的投資來轉型重組。該平台仍然是我們今天討論的同一平台。

As Francesco was mentioning during his speech over since March, we spent a lot of time based on the fact that some markets change based that, in some cases, we see more growth compared in some market application than what we see before, in some case, like I don't want to talk always about automotive, but of course, automotive is another piece that, in terms of exposure of the chemical sector is also important because in the car production goes many different chemical products.So we review completely the entire portfolio in terms of the market and opportunity to grow in the market that were to eventually reduce participation.

正如Francesco 自3 月以來在演講中提到的那樣，我們花了很多時間基於以下事實：某些市場發生了變化，在某些情況下，我們在某些​​市場應用中看到的增長比我們以前看到的要多。 ，就像我不想總是談論汽車一樣，但是當然，汽車是另一塊，就化學行業的暴露而言也很重要，因為在汽車生產中使用了許多不同的化學產品。我們完全回顧了就市場和市場成長機會而言，整個投資組合最終會減少參與度。

And we increase, in some shape or form, the area of restructuring of the base chemical portfolio because we strongly believe that the base chemical portfolio in Europe is in a very irreversible situation in terms of economics. So we decided to broad the scope in terms of grow the platform, but also to develop new platforms like the stationary storage battery that we are talking about.

我們以某種形式增加基礎化學品投資組合的重組領域，因為我們堅信歐洲的基礎化學品投資組合在經濟方面處於非常不可逆轉的境地。因此，我們決定擴大平台的發展範圍，同時也開發新的平台，例如我們正在討論的固定式蓄電池。

And including this new activity, new platform and also the biorefinery in Priolo, we arrived to estimate EUR2 billion. We are not in the position today to do the breakout of the breakdown of this EUR2 billion, but this is how we move from the EUR1 billion to the EUR2 billion today.

包括這項新活動、新平台以及普里奧洛的生物精煉廠，我們估計價值 20 億歐元。今天我們無法對這 20 億歐元進行細分，但這就是我們今天從 10 億歐元轉向 20 億歐元的方式。

Kim Fustier with HSBC.

匯豐銀行的 Kim Fustier。

I have got two, please. Firstly, could you discuss the significance of the new business structure announced last month? Basically, what does it allow you to achieve or achieve differently compared to the previous structure?

我有兩個，拜託。首先，您能否談談上個月宣布的新業務架構的意義？基本上，與以前的結構相比，它可以讓您實現什麼或以不同的方式實現什麼？

Secondly, could you give us an update on your plans for the UK North Sea now that the combination with Etika has completed?

其次，既然與 Etika 的合併已經完成，您能否向我們介紹一下您在英國北海的計劃的最新情況？

Thank you. Yes. About the new structure. The new strategy is substantially an evolution of the previous one. You remember that whilst there was the previous, it was based on the natural resources and energy evolution and energy evolution and the scope of creating the platforms that substantially helped to generate.

謝謝。是的。關於新結構。新戰略實質上是前戰略的演變。您還記得，雖然有前一個，但它是基於自然資源和能源演變以及能源演變以及創建實質上有助於生成的平台的範圍。

I would say, almost EUR4 billion of cash coming from Enilive and planning to the reduction or disposal of our minority stake. And clearly, that was the opportunity to transform from particularly from the point of view of the biorefinery certain sites, and therefore, having a structure of businesses that could have, let's say, could capture the interest of new investors.

我想說，近 40 億歐元的現金來自 Enilive，並計劃減少或處置我們的少數股權。顯然，這是從某些地點（特別是從生物精煉廠的角度來看）進行轉型的機會，因此，擁有可以吸引新投資者興趣的業務結構。

So the new structure that is coming is an evolution of that energy evolution original model. As that has matured in a specific area plan to that now is moving to having a partner that is clearly a financial partner and has a main goal, the road towards an IPO. For this reason, the decision was to bring this inside the CFO structure.

因此，即將出現的新結構是能量演化原始模型的演化。隨著特定領域計劃的成熟，現在正在轉向擁有一個顯然是財務合作夥伴並且有一個主要目標的合作夥伴，即通往首次公開募股的道路。基於這個原因，我們決定將其納入財務長結構內。

On natural resource, it was decided to improve even further the centrality of the technical capability and the trading capability. For this reason, all the engineering activities centralized under that structure that is now called Global Natural Resource and with the trading activity that is entirely inside that responsibility.

在自然資源方面，決定進一步提高技術能力和交易能力的集中度。因此，所有工程活動都集中在現在稱為「全球自然資源」的結構下，而貿易活動則完全屬於該責任範圍。

Finally, transformation, industrial transformation is clearly now focused on the key dossier of transforming the chemical, creating a similar positive evolution that we saw in the refining in the traditional refining system and continuing to transform the refining system that clearly has activity to be deployed in order to add additional biorefining capacity and in particular in certain sites, and therefore, to reinforce further our any live future business.

最後，轉型，工業轉型現在顯然集中在化學品轉型的關鍵文件上，創造了與我們在傳統煉油系統中的煉油中看到的類似的積極演變，並繼續改造顯然有活動可部署的煉油系統為了增加額外的生物精煉能力，特別是在某些地點，從而進一步加強我們的未來業務。

This is the scope, and we think the advantage of having three structures focalized in different segments of business.

這就是範圍，我們認為擁有專注於不同業務領域的三種結構的優勢。

About our completion of it occurred it like a deal. Buckeye is another opportunity. We had a portfolio that was cash generative but was, let's say, short in terms of opportunity of new projects. We think there is synergies from the operational point of view, but also clearly from the financial and fiscal point of view.

關於我們完成它就像一筆交易一樣。七葉樹是另一個機會。我們的投資組合可以產生現金，但可以說，新項目的機會不足。我們認為，從營運角度來看存在協同效應，但從金融和財政角度來看也很明顯。

And we believe there will be also, in this difficult environment, still some, let's say, opportunity to grow our oil and gas presence in UK Clearly, for us, UK is becoming a country where we are not just focused on oil and gas, but where we are a major player in CCS and in renewable in the renewable space.

我們相信，在這種困難的環境下，仍然有一些機會來擴大我們在英國的石油和天然氣業務。和再生能源領域的主要參與者。

So, for us, this is a strategic position on a broader span of business.

因此，對我們來說，這是在更廣泛的業務範圍內的策略地位。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

比拉傑‧博哈塔里亞 (Biraj Borkhataria)，加拿大皇家銀行。

First was just a follow-up on the UK again. There's obviously some uncertainty around the tax and the capital allowances in the UK So could you just remind us what the expected CapEx budget for that entity is next year? And whether you can talk to any sort of flexibility that you have if the rules are more harsh than expected?

首先是對英國的後續行動。英國的稅收和資本補貼顯然存在一些不確定性。如果規則比預期更嚴格，您是否可以談論您所擁有的任何靈活性？

And then the second question is just on going through the statements, it looks like you issued another hybrid, which doesn't look like a retender, I think it's a new one. And the commentary suggests that it's for FLNG vessels. So just wanted a bit of color on what exactly that was for, and why you chose that route of financing?

然後第二個問題只是瀏覽聲明，看起來你發布了另一個混合版本，它看起來不像重新提交者，我認為這是一個新的。評論表明它適用於 FLNG 船。所以只是想了解這到底是為了什麼，以及為什麼選擇這種融資途徑？

And thank you. On the first question, it's very easy. I suggest you to direct these questions directly to the Ithaca management. They will present the results and also the plan for the next year is something that is clearly in their responsibility and the disclosure.

謝謝你。關於第一個問題，這很簡單。我建議您直接向伊薩卡管理層提出這些問題。他們將展示結果以及明年的計劃，這在他們的責任和披露中是明確的。

We cannot anticipate a disclosure. It's difficult for us to present our plan, speaking about someone else that is doing his job, it's even more difficult.

我們無法預期披露。我們很難提出我們的計劃，談論別人正在做他的工作，那就更困難了。

About the hybrid you are referring, this is relating to the floaters LNG. Originally, this is a project that we are is the Kong LNG project. Remember, that was two floating LNG. One was, let's say, the smaller scale and the large scale, one was both the other is under construction. And substantially this hybrid was a sort of financial tool to replicate a leasing model.

關於你提到的混合動力，這與浮式液化天然氣有關。本來我們這個計畫就是Kong LNG計畫。請記住，那是兩艘浮動液化天然氣。一個是規模較小的，一個是規模較大的，一個是另一個正在建設中。從本質上講，這種混合體是一種複製租賃模式的金融工具。

Originally, the idea for us was to have floating LNG, so a ship that was under lease. It was the plan that we had once we sanctioned the project was 2022, at the beginning of 2022, then condition in the market changes.

最初，我們的想法是擁有浮動液化天然氣，即一艘租賃的船。這是我們在 2022 年批准該專案時制定的計劃，2022 年初，然後市場狀況發生變化。

Remember, 2022 was the year where the vision of Ukraine changed a lot of things, and therefore, we had to accelerate and to buy that ship. In order to have a model that is substantially replicated from the financial point of view, an installment of payment of, let's say, a number of years to cover the cost of that ship or the CapEx related to that ship.

請記住，2022 年是烏克蘭的願景改變了許多事情的一年，因此，我們必須加速購買那艘船。為了擁有一個從財務角度充分複製的模型，需要分期付款（比方說，幾年）來支付該船的成本或與該船相關的資本支出。

This is the Bridon is a solution that is substantially reproducing also from the financial point of view in a better way, in a much more optimal solution, what we designed as the original plan for that ship.

這就是 Bridon 的解決方案，從財務角度來看，它以更好的方式、更優化的解決方案大幅複製了我們為該船設計的原始計劃。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫納，伯恩斯坦。

Congratulations, first of all, on the strategic delivery. I have two questions specific to Q3. First of all, on cash flows. The cash tax rate increased more than 10% this quarter. I presume this includes more windfall tax installments. Can you say what remains to be paid in Q4, please? And whether that completes the bill or if there is more payable next year?

首先祝賀戰略交付。我有兩個特定於 Q3 的問題。首先，關於現金流。本季現金稅率上漲超過10%。我認為這包括更多的暴利稅分期付款。能透露一下第四季還需要支付哪些費用嗎？這是否完成了帳單，或者明年需要支付更多費用？

And then secondly, your upstream equity affiliates EBIT increased about 4% sequentially despite the weaker oil price. Can you say what is happening there? What drove that strength between Q2 and Q3, please?

其次，儘管油價走弱，您的上游股權附屬公司息稅前利潤仍較上季成長了約 4%。你能說說那裡發生了什麼事嗎？請問是什麼推動了第二季和第三季的強勢？

Thank you. Yes. On the payment related to the windfall tax, we have last installment on of EUR240 million in the in November. So that should end the number of payment we did and will substantially reach the level of EUR2 billion that we paid between 2022 to 2024. So that is the last step.

謝謝。是的。關於與暴利稅相關的付款，我們在 11 月支付了最後一筆 2.4 億歐元的款項。因此，我們支付的金額應該會結束，並將大幅達到我們在 2022 年至 2024 年間支付的 20 億歐元的水平。這是最後一步。

About the EBIT contribution, I think this is mainly related to the some of our upstream entities, and we can provide you more detail with the Investor Relations team.

關於息稅前利潤的貢獻，我認為這主要與我們的一些上游實體有關，我們可以向投資者關係團隊提供更多詳細資訊。

Matt Smith, Bank of America.

馬特史密斯，美國銀行。

Two, please. Just firstly, I wanted to come back to the buyback. You've increased it twice this year quite substantially each time. I mean, given you've built a lot of visibility on balance sheet improvement, I wondered if increased visibility and stability might be an outcome for the buyback as well and perhaps certainly one way to reduce the complexity in the buyback mechanism might be to offer a recurring stable buyback in euro million terms.

請兩位。首先，我想回到回購。今年你已經將其增加了兩次，每次都相當大。我的意思是，鑑於您在資產負債表改善方面建立了很多可見性，我想知道增加可見性和穩定性是否也可能是回購的結果，也許減少回購機制複雜性的一種方法可能是提供以百萬歐元計算的定期穩定回購。

I just wanted to test whether that's something that you would see any advantage to? Or conversely, are you keen to retain the flexibility that a payout ratio gives you? So that would be my first question.

我只是想測試一下您是否認為這有什麼好處？或者相反，您是否渴望保留支付比率為您帶來的靈活性？這是我的第一個問題。

And then my second question actually I wanted to turn on to European refining, if I could. I appreciate this isn't comparable to Versalis from an Eni financial perspective, but it does seem to be an industry that's facing some structural headwinds as well as cyclical ones at the moment.

然後我的第二個問題實際上我想轉向歐洲煉油，如果可以的話。我認為從埃尼的財務角度來看，這與 Versalis 無法相提並論，但它似乎是一個目前面臨一些結構性阻力和週期性阻力的行業。

Just wondered if you'd be willing to comment your thoughts on the market and whether you think rationalization might also be required in this sector to see any sort of tangible improvement in the outlook from here?

只是想知道您是否願意評論您對市場的想法，以及您是否認為該行業也可能需要合理化才能看到前景有任何切實的改善？

Thank you. Okay. On buyback, clearly, by definition, buyback is a flexible tool. I think that there is not a fixed route for buyback. What we think is a relatively simple model that we declare a certain percentage of distribution in or a range of distribution in cash flow from operation that is, let's say, clearly split between dividend and buyback.

謝謝。好的。關於回購，顯然，根據定義，回購是一種靈活的工具。我認為回購沒有固定的途徑。我們認為這是一個相對簡單的模型，我們宣布一定比例的分配或經營現金流的分配範圍，也就是說，明確劃分股利和回購。

And we say that buyback will improve following additional upside coming from execution or from scenario 60% upside.

我們認為，在執行或 60% 情境的上漲帶來額外上漲之後，回購將會改善。

And on the other side, there is still a possibility as we did this year to evaluate with the Board the opportunity to, let's say, bring this percentage or evaluating this percentage in a different way than what we did at the original plan because there is an improvement of and clearly, we have the floor once we announce the let's say, the distribution policy or we upgrade the distribution policy during the year, and so then it is a sort of a decision that will be protected from practically all the scenario to the balance sheet. So this is the model.

另一方面，仍然有可能像我們今年所做的那樣，與董事會一起評估是否有機會提出這個百分比，或者以與我們最初計劃不同的方式評估這個百分比，因為有顯然，一旦我們宣布分配政策，或者我們在年內升級分配政策，我們就有發言權，因此這是一個將受到保護的決定，不受幾乎所有情況的影響資產負債表。這就是模型。

I think that this is a quite attractive model, and we do not we cannot be so deterministic because the life unfortunately cannot be predicted at 100% and the volatility of the oil market is extremely high.

我認為這是一個非常有吸引力的模型，但我們不這麼認為，我們不能如此確定，因為不幸的是，壽命無法 100% 預測，而且石油市場的波動性極高。

I leave now to Pino Richi for the answer about the downstream refining.

我現在請皮諾·里奇（Pino Richi）回答有關下游精煉的問題。

That is a very high now a pure each for the answer about that. Thank you.

對於這個問題的答案，現在的答案是非常高的。謝謝。

Thank you, Francesco. What we have done on refining in the last 10 years was to reduce the disposal of refining on a European market through the creation of the (inaudible) one side and the diversification in the Middle East with a.

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。過去 10 年，我們在煉油方面所做的工作是透過創造（聽不清楚）一側和中東的多元化來減少歐洲市場上的煉油處置。

This strategy allow us not only to create any live with the high value that we have seen today, but also to maintain the positive the positive result in the third quarter of this year with a margin very, very low because today, our term was 1.7% in third quarter '24, $10 less than the same quarter of last year. And notwithstanding this, we are in a positive region with refining.

這項策略不僅使我們能夠創造出今天所看到的高價值直播，而且還能保持今年第三季度的積極成果，利潤率非常非常低，因為今天我們的期限為 1.7 % 24 年第三季度比去年同期減少10 美元。儘管如此，我們仍處於精煉的積極區域。

What we expect in the next months and years for refining margin in Europe, of course, is a situation with slightly a little better than this quarter, but in any case, not so bullish and that it means that confirm that our strategy is very core and the recent shutdown of Livorno for the transformation in biorefinery help us to have the further reduction in this exposure.

當然，我們預計未來幾個月和幾年歐洲煉油利潤率的情況會比本季度稍微好一點，但無論如何，不會那麼樂觀，這意味著確認我們的戰略非常核心最近利沃諾因生物精煉廠轉型而關閉，有助於我們進一步減少這種風險。

So at this point, we are at the minimum capacity of refining just able to cover the request of the marketing of Enilive and we are in equilibrium. In the next years, we will see further transformation. But the most important thing is that this is a success story that we have to repeat in the chemistry.

所以目前我們的煉油能力處於最低水平，剛好能夠滿足Enilive的行銷要求，我們處於平衡狀態。未來幾年，我們將看到進一步的轉變。但最重要的是，這是一個我們必須在化學領域重複的成功故事。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Congratulations on the strong results and the progress on disposals. Two questions, if I may. The first one is on Egypt. The country clearly is in a deep energy crisis. They are now importing LNG pretty much early around. I was wondering if there is a lot you can do in terms of extra drilling and exploration to continue to supply more gas as you have consistently done in the last few years?

祝賀取得的強勁成果和處置進展。如果可以的話，有兩個問題。第一個是關於埃及的。該國顯然正處於嚴重的能源危機。他們現在很早就開始進口液化天然氣。我想知道你們是否可以在額外的鑽探和勘探方面做很多事情，以繼續供應更多的天然氣，就像你們在過去幾年中所做的那樣？

And then secondly, I wanted to come back to clearly a very successful business you've created there. This year has been tougher in terms of margins. One of the drivers that could tighten the market over the next two, three years could be the implementation of the right three directive country by country in Europe. I was wondering if you could give us any visibility when you think Italy may actually apply the tighter Red 3 standard and therefore raise the renewable diesel demand in Italy?

其次，我想回顧一下您在那裡創建的非常成功的企業。今年的利潤率更加艱難。未來兩三年市場收緊的驅動因素之一可能是歐洲各國實施正確的三項指令。我想知道當您認為義大利可能實際上採用更嚴格的 Red 3 標準並因此提高義大利的可再生柴油需求時，您是否可以給我們任何了解？

Okay. First question is for Guido and the second one for Stefano Ballista.

好的。第一個問題是問吉多的，第二個問題是問斯特凡諾·巴利斯塔的。

Thanks for the question. First, let me give you some more color on what is the domestic situation, economic situation in Egypt, which, of course, we constantly monitor. So we see positive signals. There have been material investment deals done recently and financial support packages have been provided by essentially mainly from UAE, $35 billion, but also IMF and or $15 billion in total. So it's a package of $50 billion, which has improved significantly the financial position of the country. But there have been also economic reforms made.

謝謝你的提問。首先，讓我進一步介紹埃及的國內情勢和經濟情勢，當然，我們一直在關注這些情況。所以我們看到了正面的訊號。最近完成了重大投資交易，並且主要由阿聯酋提供了 350 億美元的一攬子財政支持，但也有國際貨幣基金組織提供了總計 150 億美元的資金。這是一個500億美元的一攬子計劃，顯著改善了該國的財務狀況。但也進行了經濟改革。

In March, Egypt has allowed the local currency to freely float. And this has provided some stabilization on particularly the hard currency reserves of the country. But more importantly, starting in August, subsidies on electricity have been progressively reduced and also subsidies of automotive fuel have been reduced, so enhancing further the financial position of the country.

今年三月，埃及允許當地貨幣自由浮動。這在一定程度上穩定了該國的硬通貨儲備。但更重要的是，從8月開始，電費補貼逐漸減少，汽車燃油補貼也減少，國家財政狀況進一步增強。

And recently, the new cabinet announced further structural reform to provide a better perspective to the country.

最近，新內閣宣布進一步進行結構性改革，為國家提供更好的前景。

Coming to Zohr and the gas production, clearly, the overall situation of the country wasn't good till 6, 9 months ago. So most of the international operator reduced (inaudible) completely the activity, and this resulted in a severe drop in the production.

談到佐爾和天然氣生產，很明顯，直到六、九個月前，該國的整體情況並不好。因此，大多數國際業者完全減少了（聽不清楚）活動，這導致產量嚴重下降。

Now with this improved situation with the country providing more reliable payment paying the material use and recovering the outstanding payment activity is restarting. And as far as E&I concerned, we have several production optimization activity being foreseen and being implemented in most of our field, onshore and offshore. And particularly for Zohr, we are envisaging at the end of the year to start activity beginning of next year to restore some production over there.

現在，隨著情況的改善，國家提供更可靠的材料使用付款方式並收回未付款項活動正在重新啟動。就 E&I 而言，我們預計將在我們大部分的油田（陸上和海上）實施多項生產優化活動。特別是對於佐爾來說，我們預計在今年底開始於明年初開始恢復部分生產的活動。

Yeah, Michele, thank you for the question. As you said, right now, actually, the third quarter experienced the lowest margin ever seen before. Reason is the supply/demand and balance. But actually, as you mentioned, there are clear mandates and regulation coming in place with decisions already taken. RED 3, the renewable energy directive three is one of that. And you have to look at that in a wider context of other supporting mandates.

是的，米歇爾，謝謝你的提問。正如您所說，實際上，目前第三季的利潤率是有史以來最低的。原因是供給/需求和平衡。但實際上，正如您所提到的，已經制定了明確的授權和法規並做出了決定。RED 3（再生能源指令三）就是其中之一。你必須在其他支持性任務的更廣泛背景下看待這一點。

Focusing on the renewable energy directive two, it's going to get defined the growing path in terms of GAG reduction starting from middle of next year. What I would expect is to set new target starting from 2026. And this is going to be true for Italy and for other country.

重點關注再生能源指令二，從明年中期開始，將明確 GAG 削減的成長路徑。我期望的是從2026年開始設定新的目標。對於義大利和其他國家也是如此。

Then the path in order to get from just to remind some number from 14% in that is current renewable energy directive up to 29% is going to be probably a quite linear phase in along the years. Another element that I want to highlight in any case is that, even now we already know that next year, focusing on Italy, the target, GAG, the energy content target has been already increased by about 1%.

那麼，從目前再生能源指令中的 14% 到 29% 的過程，多年來可能會是一個相當線性的階段。無論如何，我想強調的另一個因素是，即使現在我們已經知道明年，以義大利為重點的目標，GAG，能源含量目標已經增加了約 1%。

This year is 10.8%, next year is going to be 11.7%. This is coming from the current renewable energy directive that is keeping its own path. So it's going to be done on top of the increasing target we already are experiencing. On top, we have an already defined mandate on pure HVO, so 100% HVO.

今年是10.8%，明年是11.7%。這是來自當前的可再生能源指令，該指令保持著自己的路線。因此，這將在我們已經實現的不斷增長的目標之上完成。最重要的是，我們已經明確了純 HVO 的要求，即 100% HVO。

That one is going to increase by 100,000 tonne next year in Italy. And there is already defined and approved path in order to reach 1 million tonne with a step up by 100,000 tonne per year in the following years. So actually, an increased demand increase path is already in place.

明年義大利的產量將增加 10 萬噸。並且已經確定並批准了達到 100 萬噸的路徑，並在接下來的幾年中每年增加 10 萬噸。因此，實際上，需求增加的路徑已經就位。

Peter Low, Redmond, Atlantic.

彼得·洛，雷德蒙德，大西洋。

Yes, another one on the KKR deal for the stake in any live. The valuation you achieved was really quite impressive given what's going on in the market. Can you perhaps talk a bit about what makes Enilive unique or particularly well positioned in the biofuel market? And kind of what kind of why KKR was willing to kind of pay such a level?

是的，另一筆關於 KKR 股權交易的任何直播。考慮到市場上正在發生的情況，你所獲得的估值確實令人印象深刻。您能否談談 Enilive 的獨特之處或在生物燃料市場中的獨特地位？KKR 為何願意支付如此高的薪水？

And then just separately, on organic CapEx, you're now saying that's going to be kind of below EUR9 billion this year. What are the moving parts there that means that's coming in lower than you had initially expected?

另外，就有機資本支出而言，您現在說今年的有機資本支出將低於 90 億歐元。有哪些活動因素意味著該數字低於您最初的預期？

About the evaluation of Enilive. I think that the competitive advantage or the structure that we designed and substantially give to Enilive a quite compelling investment case rational because it give you exposure to the growth business of biofuels with tightening of regulation, the opening of the soft markets and all the changes that could emerge from a demand point of view, in particularly with more and more request of also for shipping or rather usage are the traditional activity.

關於Enilive的評價。我認為，我們設計的競爭優勢或結構實質上為Enilive 提供了一個相當引人注目的投資案例理性，因為它使您能夠接觸到生物燃料的增長業務，以及監管的收緊、軟市場的開放以及所有變化。

What is the advantage to mix this growth opportunity together with the stabilizing quality of our retail. So you are substantially able to travel in this difficult transformation of the transportation model, but you are granted by the fact that there is 1.5 million clients that are coming to our 5,000 service station buying fuels, buying goods, looking for additional services, et cetera.

將這種成長機會與穩定的零售品質結合起來有什麼好處？因此，您基本上可以在交通模式的艱難轉型中出行，但您也可以接受這樣一個事實：有 150 萬客戶來到我們的 5,000 個加油站購買燃料、購買商品、尋求額外服務等。

And this is the reason you see the result of any life much more stable even in a difficult market environment than other competitors.

這就是為什麼即使在困難的市場環境中，您也會看到任何生活的結果比其他競爭對手更穩定。

So I think that this is where the difference is. And the fact that substantially, you can grow, let's say, with a protection that allow you, in any case, to have other elements that generate cash. So another factor that you not only have a sort of hedging through this retail contribution, but also to have a cash availability that will help you to have capability to fund our investment and also to have a certain distribution potential in your hands.

所以我認為這就是差異所在。事實上，在任何情況下，你都可以透過保護來實現成長，讓你擁有其他產生現金的元素。因此，另一個因素是，您不僅可以透過這種零售貢獻進行對沖，而且還可以擁有可用的現金，這將幫助您有能力為我們的投資提供資金，並在您手中擁有一定的分銷潛力。

I believe this is the real, let's say, reason for having such a level of evaluation.

我相信這才是獲得如此高評價的真正原因。

About CapEx, the fact that clearly, we are improving on a yearly basis the expectation, there is a step-up in the last quarter that is generally a natural process following the evaluation of FIDs during the year, and you have down payment once you take FID.

關於資本支出，事實是，很明顯，我們正在逐年提高預期，上個季度有所提高，這通常是年內 FID 評估後的自然過程，一旦您採取 FID。

I think this is a normal and historical trend that you could see. Clearly, we said that we we will be around 9%, below 9%. It could be something that clearly show in any case, an improvement versus the expectation that we had once we announced the Capital Market Day.

我認為這是你可以看到的正常的歷史趨勢。顯然，我們說過我們將在 9% 左右，低於 9%。無論如何，這可能會清楚地表明，與我們宣布資本市場日後的預期相比，情況有所改善。

Massimo Bonisoli Equity.

馬西莫·博尼索利股權。

Two questions, please. One on Versalis. To better understand the capital discipline, can you provide at least some qualitative indication o,n the EUR2 billion spending for the restructuring of Versalis? Roughly how much is related to all brands and how much is driven by growth projects? And if you can be also more specific on new volumes coming from biochemistry and circular economy.

請教兩個問題。凡爾賽斯上的一處。為了更好地理解資本紀律，您能否至少提供一些有關 Versalis 重組的 20 億歐元支出的定性資訊？大約有多少與所有品牌相關，有多少是由成長項目驅動的？如果您也可以更具體地介紹來自生物化學和循環經濟的新卷。

And the second question on disposal. Could you please provide more details on the progress of the eventual disposal of minority stake of new satellites like CCS as well as biogas?

第二個問題是關於處置的。您能否提供更多關於最終處置CCS和沼氣等新衛星少數股權的進展？

Adriano, if you want to answer about the.

阿德里亞諾，如果你想回答的話。

Sure. (inaudible) let's say, as I said before, that we don't give the split of the EURbillion in term of investment, how much it is for one compared to another one. But let me give some flavor about how we how it's going to change our portfolio, just to give you an idea, okay? So if you look historically in terms of traditional business, what you define traditional business or, let's say, the for-state business, we used to spend more than 50% of our CapEx on a yearly bases for traditional business, so let's say it for base chemical and for polymer commodity polymer, okay?

當然。 （聽不清楚）讓我們說，正如我之前所說，我們不會在投資方面劃分十億歐元，即一個項目與另一個項目相比的金額。但是，讓我介紹一下我們將如何改變我們的投資組合，只是為了給您一個想法，好嗎？因此，如果你從傳統業務的歷史角度來看，你對傳統業務的定義，或者說，國有業務，我們過去每年將超過 50% 的資本支出用於傳統業務，所以可以這樣說對於基礎化學品和聚合物商品聚合物，好嗎？

And if you look in terms of projection in terms of portfolio shifting, what we are going to invest for in terms of percentage for base chemical and the standard polymer is in the range of 10%, while 90% of the future investment on a CapEx base will be for the new platforms, okay, of chemical platform.

如果你從投資組合轉移的角度來看，我們將投資基礎化學品和標準聚合物的百分比在 10% 範圍內，而未來投資的 90% 用於資本支出基地將用於新平台，好吧，化學平台。

If you look in terms of the second part of your question, how much we are going to grow? Today, the portfolio of Versalis based on average 2023, 2024 is 30% on specialties, where this specialty include the compounding business, the biochemistry, circularity and so on. And the other 70% is base chemical and the standard polymer.

如果您從問題的第二部分來看，我們將成長多少？如今，Versalis 的投資組合基於平均 2023、2024 年，專業領域佔 30%，其中專業領域包括複合業務、生物化學、循環等。另外70%是基礎化學品和標準聚合物。

After the transformation, so in five years from now, based on our transformation program, so restructuring program and developer of new platforms, we expect to go to 65% of the specialty business. And in this 65% is, of course, included the bio piece.

轉型後，從現在開始的五年內，根據我們的轉型計劃、重組計劃和新平台的開發，我們預計將達到 65% 的專業業務。當然，這 65% 中也包括個人簡介。

Okay. About the disposal plan, clearly, you know we have already, let's say, announced that we are in a currently in a tendering activity. We've received interest from five, six potential investor for the CCS. This is a process that will require also sometime of fine-tuning.

好的。關於處置計劃，顯然，你知道我們已經宣布我們目前正在進行招標活動。我們已經收到了五、六家 CCS 潛在投資者的興趣。這個過程還需要一些時間的微調。

But clearly, there is an interest from different operators to to join us in a portfolio that is, let's say, spreading from UK Italy, Netherlands, Norway and other countries, and that become will become one of the major lever for the decarbonation of hard-to-abate industries.

但顯然，不同的業者都有興趣加入我們的投資組合，比如說，來自英國、義大利、荷蘭、挪威和其他國家的投資組合，這將成為硬脫碳的主要槓桿之一。

We are continually working on the dual exposure model. So there is some assets that are under negotiation because, clearly, we are in a more advanced stage for that specific field. So clearly, we are referring to some of the last most relevant discoveries.

我們正在不斷研究雙重曝光模型。因此，有些資產正在談判中，因為顯然我們在該特定領域處於更高級的階段。很明顯，我們指的是一些最近最相關的發現。

And we are clearly also working on certain additional activity of valorizing again some stakes in planning and also potential in November, this could take more time. So as you've seen in the past months, we are a very active portfolio activity.

顯然，我們也正在努力進行某些額外的活動，以再次評估 11 月規劃和潛力的一些利益，這可能需要更多時間。正如您在過去幾個月中所看到的，我們的投資組合活動非常活躍。

And I think that we are able to deliver on a very fast way and in a very effective in term of value evaluation our plan of disposal. This is what I can tell you for the time being.

我認為我們能夠以非常快速的方式和非常有效的價值評估方式交付我們的處置計劃。我暫時能告訴你的就是這些。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

莉迪亞·雷恩福斯，巴克萊銀行。

Two questions, please. The first one, just coming back to the plan, I think there was is about the idea of carbon capture or the CCS side going into that satellite model. Can you just talk us through what you're seeing on CCS at the moment?

請教兩個問題。第一個，回到計劃，我認為有關於碳捕獲或 CCS 方面進入衛星模型的想法。您能告訴我們您目前在 CCS 上看到的情況嗎？

And then secondly, on . Can you just remind us when the drilling in Namibia when we should actually think about that coming through as well?

然後第二點，關於。您能否提醒我們，當我們在納米比亞進行鑽探時，我們實際上也應該考慮這一點？

On CCS, what is now evident this is after a number of years where there were some, let's say, skepticism about the potentiality of this industry that is quite traditional industries, nothing particularly new. What is new is substantially to link together emitters and storage potential. This is the chain that was never tested, but injecting CO2 in a reservoir is quite traditional and used activity.

在 CCS 方面，現在顯而易見的是，多年來，人們對這個行業的潛力持懷疑態度，因為這個行業是非常傳統的行業，沒有什麼特別新的。新穎之處在於實質上將發射器和儲存潛力連接在一起。這是從未測試過的鏈條，但向水庫注入二氧化碳是相當傳統和常用的活動。

We see there is a huge interest. There is a huge interest because there are targets from a lot of industry to decarbonize their production line. And you have we have the storage potential. So we can deploy our expertise, our know-how. We can keep the cost of that activity as cheap as possible because we are using existing facilities.

我們看到人們對此有著巨大的興趣。人們對此產生了巨大的興趣，因為許多行業都制定了生產線脫碳的目標。您擁有我們的儲存潛力。這樣我們就可以運用我們的專業知識和技術。由於我們使用的是現有設施，因此我們可以盡可能降低該活動的成本。

We are injecting in the (inaudible) reservoirs and not in aquifer. So the cost of energy related to that activity is lighter. And in the countries where there is a regulation framework already defined, there is a potential to take FID in a relatively short term. You've seen that the UK has allocated budget for this activity to support the players that will be involved, so the meters and on the other side, the injectors.

我們正在向（聽不清楚）水庫注水，而不是注水在含水層。因此，與該活動相關的能源成本較低。在已經制定了監管框架的國家，有可能在相對較短的時間內採取最終投資決定。您已經看到，英國已為這項活動分配了預算，以支持將參與其中的參與者，因此儀表和另一側的注射器。

And we are already testing or we are already, let's say, as we mentioned also during the presentation, completed the first part of our project in, with capture of more than 90%, or up to 96% as a peak of a stream of CO2 that is less than 3% in terms of concentration. So it's more difficult to capture. So it proves that this technology could be extremely effective in minimizing emissions, and therefore, this is a business with a great potential.

我們已經在進行測試，或者說，正如我們在演示期間提到的那樣，我們已經完成了專案的第一部分，捕獲了超過 90% 的數據，或高達 96% 的資料流峰值CO2 濃度低於3% 。所以捕捉起來比較困難。所以這證明這項技術可以非常有效地減少排放，因此，這是一項潛力巨大的業務。

We just to be, let's say, passionate in understanding that not only the players, but also the government have to be ready for having this business as an option in the table. The other question is about Azul, the Namibia, I think, Guido.

比方說，我們只是熱衷於理解，不僅是參與者，政府也必須準備好將這項業務作為一種選擇。另一個問題是關於 Azul，我認為是納米比亞，Guido。

Thank you. On Namibia, the activity I mean we are planning to spud I mean, Azul is planning to spud two wells in the PEL 85 block, which is close to some of the largest discovery made in Namibia. We are quite optimistic on those wells.

謝謝。在納米比亞，我的意思是我們計劃開鑽的活動我的意思是，Azul 計劃在 PEL 85 區塊開鑽兩口井，該區塊接近納米比亞一些最大的發現。我們對這些井相當樂觀。

And the rig is planned to move by the end of the year. So we'll likely spud the first well in December. Those wells are not so I mean, in terms of duration is 1.5 months, two months maximum. So we'll have first result of the first well by Q1, and the second well either late in Q1 or.

該鑽機計劃在今年底前搬遷。因此，我們很可能會在 12 月開鑽第一口井。我的意思是，這些井的持續時間不是 1.5 個月，最多兩個月。因此，我們將在 Q1 之前獲得第一口井的第一個結果，並在 Q1 後期獲得第二口井的結果。

Guido, will probably, let's say, the line was interrupted. I think that you said late in Q1 or rarely Q2, I would suppose.

Guido，也許，比方說，線路被中斷了。我想你說的是第一季末或第二季很少。

First well will be mid-Q1, the results and the second well, we expect by late Q1 or early Q2.

第一口井將在第一季中期公佈結果，第二口井將在第一季末或第二季初公佈結果。

Henry Tarr, Berenberg.

亨利·塔爾，貝倫貝格。

Two, if I may. One, just on CapEx the run rate clearly is sort of well below now the EUR9 billion that you indicated. I just wonder, has anything been deferred? Or how is how have you sort of shuffled out? Just how is this CapEx number moved?

如果可以的話，兩個。第一，僅就資本支出而言，運行率顯然遠低於您所說的 90 億歐元。我只是想知道，有什麼事情被推遲了嗎？或者說你是怎麼擺脫困境的？這個資本支出數字是如何變動的？

And then secondly, just coming back to the sort of bio-refining outlook, you're clearly sort of building new facilities, three new facilities now, I think. The market today is oversupplied. I mean, how confident sort of are you I know there's RED three, et cetera, but as you look out, when do you think this market comes back into balance? Because I guess we're already seeing some projects get canceled or delayed due to the current challenges.

其次，回到生物精煉的前景，我認為您顯然正在建造新設施，現在是三個新設施。今天的市場供應過剩。我的意思是，你有多自信，我知道有紅三等，但當你觀察時，你認為這個市場什麼時候會恢復平衡？因為我想我們已經看到一些項目由於當前的挑戰而被取消或推遲。

Okay. On CapEx, there is no, let's say, delayed investment. It's just a matter of maturation of FID that comes at the end of the year. You mentioned that also the fact that clearly that we take FID in by refineries. We will have some FID also in upstream.

好的。在資本支出方面，可以說不存在延遲投資。這只是最終投資決定在年底成熟的問題。您也提到了這樣一個事實，即我們明確接受了煉油廠的 FID。我們還將在上游進行一些 FID。

Additional activity also sometimes in the exploration activity. So a lot of things that normally occurs in the last quarter.

額外的活動有時也在探索活動中。所以很多事情通常發生在最後一個季度。

On the biorefining outlook. I will leave back to Stefano Ballista.

關於生物煉製的前景。我將返​​回斯特凡諾·巴利斯塔。

Yes. Thank you for the question. you're absolutely right. The short term, the current scenario, as I said before, it's I would say, we have never seen this kind of level. But actually, on the other side, it's definitely clear that the medium scenario is well defined. Regulation are as I said before, are in place. So there is no debate on that. The RED three is going to double current growth path. And it's not yet in place. It will get in place starting 2026, let me say.

是的。謝謝你的提問。你是絕對正確的。短期來看，目前的情況，正如我之前所說，我想說，我們從未見過這種水平。但實際上，另一方面，很明顯，中等場景是明確定義的。正如我之前所說，監管已經到位。所以對此沒有爭議。RED 3 的成長速度將是目前的兩倍。而且它還沒有到位。我想說，它將從 2026 年開始實施。

SAF is more than 1 million tonne refuel aviation on SAS going to be more than 1 million tonnes, and this is going to get in place following year. Another example, looking at current decision at country level, we got Germany that actually ban the UER has levered to comply with mandatory with blending mandates. And at the same time, they stop the carryover of certificate from 2024 to the following years. This is going to give, starting from next year, an upside of above 600,000 tonnes.

SAF 的加油量將超過 100 萬噸，SAS 的航空加油量將超過 100 萬噸，這將在明年實施。另一個例子，看看目前國家層級的決定，我們發現德國實際上禁止 UER 來遵守強制性混合指令。同時，他們停止將憑證從2024年結轉到隨後的年份。從明年開始，這將使產量增加超過 60 萬噸。

Same reason we could do on US The LCFS for California is expected end of this year, beginning of the following is going to do an increase from 20% to 30% in terms of GAG reduction with a step-up, current estimate, expectation actually is about 7% as a step-up starting from the following year.

我們在美國也可以這樣做，加州的 LCFS 預計在今年年底開始，GAG 減少量將從 20% 增加到 30%，目前的估計和實際預期將有所提高從次年開始，增幅約為7%。

And then we are starting to see a lot of tax credit support on staff. This year stuff, of course, in Europe is just a voluntary demand. In US we are starting to see some demand driven also by, let me say, supporting incentives in terms of tax credit. I want to mention Washington where you're going to get a specific tax credit and stuff. And that's why we are seeing some demand over there.

然後我們開始看到對員工的大量稅收抵免支持。當然，今年的事情在歐洲只是自願要求。在美國，我們開始看到一些需求也受到稅收抵免的支持獎勵措施的推動。我想提一下華盛頓，在那裡你將獲得特定的稅收抵免和其他東西。這就是為什麼我們看到那裡有一些需求。

Given this kind of trajectory, we see 2030 above 50 million tons of demand, and this is absolutely overtake in supply.

按照這樣的軌跡，我們預計到 2030 年需求將超過 5,000 萬噸，這絕對是供應量的超額成長。

Martijn Rats with Morgan Stanley.

馬丁·拉茨 (Martijn Rats) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 合作。

Let's move to the next one.

讓我們轉到下一個。

Paul Redman, BNP Paribas.

保羅‧雷德曼，法國巴黎銀行。

Just a quick question on IPOs. You mentioned, I think, EUR2.5 billion of cash inflow next year from divestments possibly. Does that include a plenitude IPO? And then when we think about IPOs for Enilive, to be paying a significantly higher multiple for Enilive Live than maybe where some of your listed peers trade. Why would that not mean that you just focus on increasing partner base?

只是一個關於首次公開發行的簡單問題。我認為您提到明年可能會透過撤資帶來 25 億歐元的現金流入。這是否包括完整的首次公開發行（IPO）？然後，當我們考慮 Enilive 的 IPO 時，為 Enilive Live 支付的價格可能比一些上市同行的交易價格要高得多。為什麼這不意味著您只專注於增加合作夥伴基礎？

I think you've said before that I would like to hold, say, a 60% stake in the Enilive, so there's a lot more room to go for partner sales. And then just quickly following Enilive me and I have a question voluntary demand for sustainable aviation fuel next year? What are you guys expecting?

我想您之前曾說過，我想持有 Enilive 60% 的股份，因此合作夥伴銷售還有更大的空間。然後很快就跟隨 Enilive 我和我有一個問題明年對可持續航空燃料的自願需求？你們期待什麼？

FrancescoThank you. On the IPOs, clearly, in that amount that I mentioned, that was mainly referring to the negotiations that are still ongoing and that will be we expect to close within the end of the year. So the EUR2.4 billion is substantially, let's say, a bunch of assets and do not include any IPO. IPO, it's difficult to be predicted. It's related to a lot of things, mainly on the financial stability and market condition.

弗朗西斯科謝謝你。關於首次公開募股，顯然，我提到的金額主要是指仍在進行中的談判，我們預計將在今年年底內完成。因此，可以說，24 億歐元實質上是一堆資產，不包括任何 IPO。IPO，很難預測。這與很多事情有關，主要是金融穩定性和市場狀況。

You know very well that in Europe this year still after 2022 and 2023 is a year of a very, let's say, limited number of IPOs.

大家都很清楚，在歐洲，2022 年和 2023 年後的今年是 IPO 數量非常有限的一年。

You are right that there is a very attractive multiple in the valuation that we received so far. In the in selling down our stake. The logic for us is to have a balance between expectation of an IPO in the mid and long term.

你是對的，我們迄今為止收到的估值倍數非常有吸引力。在出售我們的股份時。我們的邏輯是在中長期IPO預期之間取得平衡。

And the in valorization upfront evaluation for it is high, but it's based also on the expectation of business that will double their EBITDA, planning to do within the four year plan Enilive just a bit longer. But substantially, this is the time period that could derisk an IPO, taking into account of the multiple that you are seeing in the market.

對其估值的前期評估很高，但這也是基於企業對 EBITDA 翻倍的預期，計劃在四年計劃內延長 Enilive 的時間。但從本質上講，考慮到你在市場上看到的本益比，這個時期可能會降低 IPO 的風險。

So this is substantially what we believe, and we do not think that the solution towards an IPO is to have a continuous sell-down of a stake because at the end of the day, you are substantially doing an IPO to the end of someone else then and you do not control then when you will be able to do an IPO if you continue to reduce your stake, while we wanted to keep this decision in our hands.

因此，這基本上就是我們所相信的，並且我們不認為 IPO 的解決方案是持續拋售股份，因為到最後，你實際上是在進行 IPO ，以結束其他人的生命如果您繼續減持股份，那麼您無法控制何時能夠進行IPO，而我們希望將這項決定掌握在我們手中。

About the (inaudible) demand, Stefano Ballista will answer, please.

關於（聽不清楚）的要求，請斯特凡諾·巴利斯塔（Stefano Ballista）回答。

Yeah, Thanks for the question. On sub-demand, in Europe, next year, we expect above 1 million tonne. Comment, this is not voluntary demand. This is a mandatory demand. So there is no option, but to be compliant with that. So this is a given.

是的，謝謝你的提問。就歐洲的次級需求而言，我們預計明年的需求將超過 100 萬噸。評論一下，這不是自願要求。這是強制性要求。所以別無選擇，只能遵守。所以這是給定的。

We see voluntary demand in US We expect doubling this year voluntary demand. It's voluntary, but as I said, linked to tax credit dedicated to SAF, and we expect about 1 million tonne twice as much current year. So overall, above 2 million tonnes.

我們看到美國的自願需求 我們預計今年自願需求將翻倍。這是自願的，但正如我所說，與專門用於 SAF 的稅收抵免掛鉤，我們預計約為 100 萬噸，是今年的兩倍。整體而言，超過200萬噸。

We take the last question, please.

請我們回答最後一個問題。

The last question is from Matt Lofting, JPMorgan.

最後一個問題來自摩根大通的馬特·洛夫廷（Matt Lofting）。

Two, please. First, I just wanted to come back on the distribution policy. Francesco, you talked earlier through the sort of the steps that E&I have taken through this year and ending up at sort of the EUR2 billion buyback, which is a very strong and welcome number. It just lacks me that in the end, the sort of the cash flow expectation for 2024 now is very similar to what you expected in March and yet the buyback is nearly double at 1.1 to 2.

請兩位。首先，我只想回到分配政策。 Francesco，您早些時候談到了 E&I 今年所採取的步驟，最終回購了 20 億歐元，這是一個非常強勁且受歡迎的數字。我只是不知道，最後，現在 2024 年的現金流預期與您 3 月份的預期非常相似，但回購比例幾乎翻倍，為 1.1 比 2。

So could you perhaps just talk more conceptually about how we should think about that? Is 2024, to some degree, exceptional or specific in the context of the progress and the momentum around the strategy and deleveraging the balance sheet?

那麼您能否更概念性地談談我們該如何思考這個問題？就該策略和去槓桿化資產負債表的進展和勢頭而言，2024 年在某種程度上是特殊的還是特殊的？

Or when we think forward to 2025 and beyond, should we systematically expect that you begin the year by setting a sort of a floor in terms of the buyback, which inherently is in a more conservative level and then looking to grow it as you move through the year dependent on macro and dependent on performance?

或者，當我們展望 2025 年及以後時，我們是否應該系統地期望您在新年伊始就回購設定某種底線，該底線本質上處於更保守的水平，然後在回購過程中尋求增長哪一年取決於宏觀、業績？

And then the second quick question was Italy taxes, there's been various different reports of moving parts since the summer. And perhaps you could just update us on your understanding there.

第二個簡單的問題是義大利稅收，自夏季以來有各種不同的關於移動部件的報告。也許您可以向我們更新您的理解。

Okay. On this the taxes, the windfall tax, clearly now is clear what is the announcement. So I think that it's not involving clearly the energy system. It is involving different sectors. So I think there is no other speculations around the potential taxes.

好的。關於這個稅，暴利稅，現在已經很清楚什麼是公告了。所以我認為它並沒有明確涉及能源系統。它涉及不同的部門。所以我認為圍繞潛在的稅收沒有其他猜測。

About the buyback, you are referring, doubling substantial buyback is exactly the point that you were referring. At the beginning of the year, we are expecting to have a leverage between 20% to 25%, and we are doing much better.

關於回購，你提到的，雙倍大幅回購正是你提到的重點。今年年初，我們預期槓桿率在20%到25%之間，而且我們做得更好。

The number of disposal, the amount of disposal that we are assuming this year are substantially including the one that we expect to let's say, to announce or to close in terms of negotiation in the coming quarter are much above our expectation. Completing almost 80%, 90% of your disposal plan in 12 months, clearly not cashing everything in 12 months, but having this activity substantially derisked entirely make a lot of difference in the perception of your distribution policy and your balance sheet strength.

我們預計今年的出售數量、出售金額基本上包括我們預計在下一季宣布或透過談判完成的出售數量，這遠遠超出了我們的預期。在12 個月內完成處置計劃的近80%、90%，顯然不會在12 個月內兌現所有資金，但完全消除這項活動的風險會對您的分配政策和資產負債表實力的看法產生很大影響。

In the your question about this is a model that potentially could happen in the coming years. I believe in the logic of the buyback that we presented, the answer should be yes. What we said once we announced the buyback or the distribution policy, we substantially set a floor.

在你的問題中，有一個模型可能在未來幾年出現。我相信我們提出的回購邏輯，答案應該是肯定的。我們所說的，一旦我們宣布了回購或分配政策，我們就實質上設定了一個下限。

So by definition, you will see an improvement. Clearly, it depends that there is an improvement during the year but an improvement and improvement in the buyback if you are able to show that from the point of view of price scenario is of your strategy, our portfolio, you see that the quarters comes better than what you expected in February or March once you started your yearly performance.

因此，根據定義，您會看到改進。顯然，這取決於年內是否有改善，但如果您能夠證明，從價格情況的角度來看，您的策略、我們的投資組合，您會看到季度會更好，那麼回購的改善和改善比您開始年度績效後二月或三月的預期要高。

This is, let's say, by definition of what is happening this year, also what happened in the, I think, one or two years ago, we did the same. I think this is completes the today's session. I believe that was quite dense, let's say, day with a lot of questions, and thank you all for the attendance.

比方說，根據今年發生的事情的定義，我認為，這也是一兩年前發生的事情，我們也做了同樣的事情。我想今天的會議到此結束。我相信這一天非常密集，有很多問題，感謝大家的出席。

Our team of Investor Relations clearly is always available also during the weekend. John has said that it's completely free. So we can, let's say, ask you to call him the team for having all the data or information that we have not covered during this call. Thank you.

我們的投資人關係團隊顯然在周末也隨時待命。約翰說過它是完全免費的。因此，我們可以要求您稱他為團隊成員，因為他擁有我們在本次通話中未涵蓋的所有數據或資訊。謝謝。

Ladies and gentleman, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones. A lot of you this call, and thank you, ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now that is different.

女士們先生們，感謝您的加入。會議現已結束。您可以斷開電話。很多人參加了這次電話會議，謝謝你們，女士們、先生們，現在的會議已經不一樣了。