埃尼石油 (E) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Eni's 2025 first-quarter results conference call hosted by Mr. Francesco Gattei, Chief Transition and Financial Officer. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加由首席過渡和財務官 Francesco Gattei 先生主持的 Eni 2025 年第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.

現在我將把你們交給主持人，開始今天的會議。謝謝。

Thank you. Good afternoon. Our February capital market update emphasized the speed and scale at which we had been progressing our strategy. Quarter one maintained the pace, and recent events have confirmed why our clarity of strategic view and speed of action is so critical. We are creating value leveraging our competitive strength in the upstream, strengthening and diversifying the company, fixing and then performing activities, materially strengthening our balance sheet, all while offering a competitive and resilient return to investors.

謝謝。午安.我們二月份的資本市場更新強調了我們推進策略的速度和規模。第一季保持了步伐，最近發生的事件證實了為什麼我們清晰的戰略觀點和行動速度如此重要。我們利用上游的競爭優勢創造價值，加強和多樣化公司，修復並執行活動，實質地加強我們的資產負債表，同時為投資者提供具有競爭力和彈性的回報。

Reviewing the important strategic highlights of the quarter and year-to-date. Growth is an important feature in our plan. In the upstream, in March, Johan Castberg began production and will add 66,000 barrels per day of oil production, a plateau for Var, as it targets over 400,000 barrels per day by the fourth quarter. Castberg is the first of the five major start-up due this year with Var Energi in Norway, Agogo and NGC in Angola, plus Congo FLNG to follow, setting us up for a stronger 2026.

回顧本季和年初至今的重要策略亮點。成長是我們計劃的一個重要特徵。在上游，Johan Castberg 於 3 月開始生產，石油日產量將增加 66,000 桶，這對於 Var 來說已是一個穩定水平，因為該公司的目標是到第四季度將石油日產量提高到 40 萬桶以上。Castberg 是今年即將成立的五家大型新創公司中的第一家，其他五家分別是挪威的 Var Energi、安哥拉的 Agogo 和 NGC，以及緊隨其後的剛果 FLNG，這些都為我們在 2026 年取得更強勁的成績奠定了基礎。

In the transition business, Plenitude has completed the construction of its 200-megawatt battery in Texas and acquired 245 megawatts in its share of photovoltaic and storage in California. While Enilive began production of SAF at its new 400,000-tonne-per-year facility at Gela in Sicily.

在過渡業務方面，Plenitude 已在德克薩斯州完成了 200 兆瓦電池的建設，並在加州獲得了 245 兆瓦的光伏和儲能份額。Enilive 已開始在位於西西里島杰拉的年產 40 萬噸的新工廠生產 SAF。

We are also realizing significant value through the investment of align capital into our transition businesses and the valuation of our industry-leading exploration activity via the dual model. We have closely agreed increasing EIP stake in Plenitude to 10%, with an additional cash of EUR209 million at the end of March. We also closed increasing KKR stake in Enilive to 30%, with an additional cash-in of EUR601 million in April. This followed the EUR2.97 billion we collected at the beginning of March. Furthermore, we have received non-binding offer for additional stakes in Plenitude that could take align investment to 25% to 30%. We consider around 70% of majority in stake in both our major transition business as broadly at the right level for the time being.

我們還透過將資本投入到我們的轉型業務中以及透過雙重模式對我們行業領先的勘探活動進行估值，實現了巨大的價值。我們已達成一致，將 EIP 在 Plenitude 的股份增加至 10%，並在 3 月底額外投入 2.09 億歐元現金。我們還在 4 月將 KKR 在 Enilive 的股份增至 30%，並額外注入 6.01 億歐元。此前，我們在 3 月初籌集了 29.7 億歐元。此外，我們還收到了 Plenitude 額外股份的非約束性報價，這可能會使投資金額達到 25% 至 30%。我們認為，目前我們主要的轉型業務中約 70% 的多數股權大致處於適當的水平。

In the upstream, also in March, we announced a major dual exploration monetization with the agreement to sell stakes in Baleine in Cote d'Ivoire and Congo LNG in the Republic of Congo to Vitol for a cash-in of around $2.7 billion expected to complete later this year.

在上游領域，同樣在 3 月份，我們宣布了一項重大的雙重勘探貨幣化計劃，即向維多出售科特迪瓦 Baleine 和剛果共和國 Congo LNG 的股份，現金價值約為 27 億美元，預計將於今年晚些時候完成。

Our satellite model is an important feature of our business in the upstream. In February, we announced an MOU with Petronas to combine assets with a mixed component of growth and value in Indonesia and Malaysia. This is a really significant development for Eni, creating a new and daily material regional satellite in an important part of the world, with a strong partner and with the added opportunity of some casualization alongside. We expected to move to a definitive agreement around the middle of this year with the completion before the end of 2025.

我們的衛星模式是我們上游業務的重要特點。今年 2 月，我們宣布與馬來西亞國家石油公司簽署諒解備忘錄，將印尼和馬來西亞的混合成長和價值資產合併。這對埃尼來說是一個非常重要的進展，在世界重要地區建立了一個新的日常材料區域衛星，擁有強大的合作夥伴，並增加了一些臨時工的機會。我們預計在今年年中達成最終協議，並在 2025 年底前完成。

Structural response in some of our legacy activities are also required as the energy evolves. The transformation of Versalis over the next four or five years is a major positive source of self-help, amounting to more than EUR1 billion per year EBIT improvement by 2030. We have positive news to report here as well with the agreement reached with the institution and the unions on the details of our plan.

隨著能源的發展，我們的一些遺留活動也需要結構性回應。Versalis 未來四、五年的轉型是其自我拯救的重要積極源泉，到 2030 年，每年的息稅前利潤將提高超過 10 億歐元。我們也有積極的消息要報告，我們已與該機構和工會就計劃細節達成協議。

We closed Brindisi, the first of the remaining two steam crakers at the end of March. And Priolo will be shut down before the end of this year.

我們在三月底關閉了布林迪西蒸汽裂解廠，這是剩下的兩家蒸汽裂解廠中的第一家。而Priolo也將在今年底前關閉。

Our strategy is designed to create a stronger, more profitable, and more resilient company. Our first quarter results demonstrate this. Net income EUR1.4 billion is up around 60% quarter-on-quarter in a very similar scenario setting. Upstream production was in line with our expectation as 2024 divestment impacts were through, seasonal factors play out, and we weigh the positive impact of the start-ups that will contribute to our full-year expectation of around 1.7 million barrels per day average.

我們的策略旨在打造更強大、更獲利、更具韌性的公司。我們的第一季業績證明了這一點。在非常相似的情境下，淨收入 14 億歐元比上一季成長了約 60%。由於 2024 年撤資影響已經結束、季節性因素正在發揮作用，並且我們權衡了新開工的積極影響，上游產量符合我們的預期，這將有助於我們實現全年平均每天約 170 萬桶的產量預期。

At the segment level, E&P pro forma EBIT of EUR3.3 billion, almost offsetting lower crude and production year-on-year, helped by lower expenses and efficiency gains at the benefit of portfolio upgrading. GGP results reflect the normal seasonal strength and were essentially in line with last year. Enilive and Plenitude reported pro forma results consistent with our full-year expectations once respective seasonalities take into account.

在分部層面，E&P 的預估息稅前利潤為 33 億歐元，幾乎抵消了原油和產量年減的影響，這得益於費用降低、效率提高以及投資組合升級。GGP 業績反映了正常的季節性強勁，基本上與去年持平。考慮到各自的季節性因素後，Enilive 和 Plenitude 公佈的備考業績與我們的全年預期一致。

Enilive was impacted by the deterioration in the biofuel margins year-on-year and also lowered by refinery utilization, albeit refining EBITDA remained positive. This was partially offset by positive evolution of our marketing operation. Plenitude recorded a 3% EBITDA improvement year-over-year, supported by strong retail results and rising renewable generation.

儘管煉油 EBITDA 仍然為正，但 Enilive 受到生物燃料利潤率年減的影響，且煉油廠利用率也下降。這在一定程度上被我們行銷業務的積極發展所抵消。由於強勁的零售業績和不斷增長的可再生能源發電，Plenitude 的 EBITDA 年成長 3%。

In our transformation activity, both refining and chemical were loss-making. Refining results reflected with the weaker margin year-on-year and lower throughputs over the closure of Livorno, plus the extended turnaround of Sannazzaro in the quarter. Our continued losses in chemical reflect the challenging scenario in Europe that we consider to be a structural feature and confirm our action to restructure and transform this business.

在我們的轉型活動中，煉油和化工兩個業務都處於虧損狀態。煉油業績反映出利潤率年減、利沃諾關閉導致吞吐量下降，以及本季桑納扎羅的周轉時間延長。我們在化學領域的持續虧損反映了歐洲面臨的嚴峻形勢，我們認為這是一個結構性特徵，也證實了我們重組和轉型該業務的行動。

Cash flow before working capital of EUR3.4 billion in the quarter were consistent with our full-year guidance of EUR13 billion, at $75/barrel. The cash tax rate was around 30% in line with normal levels. And dividends received were in line with associated net income. CapEx in the quarter was EUR1.9 billion, a little below the rate of EUR9 billion in the February guidance. Valorization and divestment proceeded net of acquisition in the quarter total of EUR3 billion and including cash-in for our transition satellites.

本季營運資本前現金流為 34 億歐元，與我們全年 130 億歐元的預期一致，油價為 75 美元/桶。現金稅率約30%，符合正常水準。收到的股利與相關淨收入一致。本季資本支出為 19 億歐元，略低於 2 月指引的 90 億歐元。本季扣除收購後的增值和撤資總額為 30 億歐元，其中包括我們過渡衛星的現金投入。

We repurchased the EUR386 million shares in this quarter, completing our EUR2 billion 2024 program. We expect to begin the 2025 EUR1.5 billion buyback program after the shareholder approval in May.

我們在本季回購了價值 3.86 億歐元的股票，完成了 2024 年 20 億歐元的計畫。我們預計將在 5 月股東批准後啟動 2025 年 15 億歐元的回購計畫。

Balance sheet leverage was 18%, 4% lower than last quarter despite a weaker dollar, adding 1 percentage point. While our pro forma leverage incorporating agreed transactions still to close stood at 12%, an improvement of 3 percentage points from end of 2024, and the minimum in our history.

資產負債表槓桿率為 18%，儘管美元走弱，但仍比上一季下降了 4%，增加了 1 個百分點。而我們納入尚未完成的約定交易的預測槓桿率為 12%，比 2024 年底提高了 3 個百分點，是我們歷史上的最低水準。

Volatility and cyclicity is a recurring feature of this industry. Every two or three years, we are impacted by an external event. So it's really a normal course of business. Our company needs to be prepared and it should be to leverage the cyclical upswing. Given the current scenario, it is worth reviewing our balance sheet in a little more detail.

波動性和週期性是這個行業的一個反覆出現的特徵。每隔兩三年，我們就會受到外在事件的影響。所以這確實是一個正常的業務流程。我們的公司需要做好準備，利用週期性的上升趨勢。鑑於目前的情況，我們值得更詳細地審查我們的資產負債表。

In the past five quarters, we have announced over EUR9 billion asset divestment through exploration and valoration and align external investment into our transition-oriented business. We have executed faster and for greater value than we and certainly the market expected, moving quickly to lower our leverage. An additional element of protection is provided by our satellites. The model not only enabled us to raise capital and self-finance our growth while highlighting the valuation multiples related to transition business or specific caps in geography such as Norway. But it also strengthens our resilience during downturn phases. On one hand, we are able to contain our leverage through targeted business valoration. On the other, the availability of autonomous entities capable of containing price downturns with their own balance sheets allows us to secure more stable cash flow via dividends. And hence, we are less affected by market volatility.

在過去的五個季度中，我們宣布透過勘探和估價方式剝離超過90億歐元的資產，並將外部投資納入我們的轉型業務。我們的執行速度比我們自己以及市場的預期要快，而且價值也更高，我們迅速降低了槓桿率。我們的衛星提供了額外的保護。該模型不僅使我們能夠籌集資金並自行籌資以實現成長，同時還凸顯了與轉型業務或挪威等地區的特定上限相關的估值倍數。但它也增強了我們在經濟低迷時期的韌性。一方面，我們能夠透過有針對性的業務估值來控制我們的槓桿率。另一方面，擁有能夠透過自己的資產負債表控制價格下跌的自主實體使我們能夠透過股利獲得更穩定的現金流。因此，我們受市場波動的影響較小。

Our consolidated balance sheet is just about the strongest in our history. At the end of the quarter, with over EUR28 billion financial assets and draw committed lines, and we have lengthened the maturities by more than two years over the past two years. We estimated our net cost of net debt in 2025 will be below 1.5%. This position will enable us to continue to balance, pursuing our strategy, remaining resilient and flexible, and deliver our returns to shareholders.

我們的合併資產負債表幾乎是我們歷史上最強勁的。截至本季末，我們擁有超過 280 億歐元的金融資產並已提取承諾額度，並且在過去兩年中我們將期限延長了兩年以上。我們預計 2025 年淨債務淨成本將低於 1.5%。這個職位將使我們能夠繼續保持平衡，推行我們的策略，保持彈性和靈活性，並為股東帶來回報。

When we discussed our plan and four-year strategy, we emphasize the value in the consistency in our approach. We also confirm our dividend at EUR1.05 and the share buyback totaling EUR1.5 billion, itself a minimum floor that we are committed to maintaining even under adverse market scenarios. And we need to be nimble and responsive to the changing condition. The work we have done on the balance sheets helped us passed significantly. But there are also further measures we will now begin to take to reinforce our financial position without compromising our medium long-term objective of our investment proposition.

當我們討論我們的計劃和四年策略時，我們強調方法一致性的價值。我們也確認股利為 1.05 歐元，股票回購總額為 15 億歐元，這本身就是我們承諾即使在市場情勢不利的情況下也維持的最低限度。我們需要靈活應對不斷變化的情況。我們在資產負債表上所做的工作對我們幫助很大。但我們現在也將開始採取進一步措施來加強我們的財務狀況，同時不損害我們投資主張的中長期目標。

We have identified over EUR2 billion initial actions to enhance our free cash flow positions and lowering our cash neutrality by around $15 per barrel including additional portfolio upside, selective capital rescheduling over the coming months, active working capital management aimed at enhancing cash recovery, and structural cost optimization initiative. Together, these actions further enhance our financial position and the shareholder distribution.

我們已確定超過 20 億歐元的初步行動，以增強我們的自由現金流狀況並將我們的現金中性降低約 15 美元/桶，包括額外的投資組合上行空間、未來幾個月的選擇性資本重組、旨在增強現金回收的積極營運資本管理，以及結構性成本優化計劃。這些舉措共同增強了我們的財務狀況和股東分配。

In summary, the additional financial trends we have introduced into Eni over the past year, the intrinsic resilience of the model we have built and the additional optional levers available mean we can maintain underlying strategy and also confirm the full distribution policy we have announced.

總而言之，我們在過去一年中引入埃尼的額外財務趨勢、我們構建的模型的內在彈性以及可用的額外可選槓桿意味著我們可以維持基本戰略，並確認我們宣布的完整分銷政策。

With the current scenario headwinds, we are focused on delivering our underlying performance and leveraging our portfolio optionality to accept cash flow impacts and deliver our distribution commitments. We therefore can confirm our full-year production outlook of 1.7 million barrels per day. We also confirm our profitability guidance for GGP, Enilive, and Plenitude. At our lower scenario assumption, we expect to generate EUR11 billion of cash flow from operation, a little better underlined than our sensitivities imply. We expect to assess this impact with the cash mitigation measures I described including net caps to below EUR6 billion. Therefore, we can also confirm a leverage between 0.15% and 0.2% in 2025, within the 0.1% and 0.2% plan range.

在當前情況不利的情況下，我們專注於實現我們的基本業績，並利用我們的投資組合選擇性來接受現金流影響並履行我們的分銷承諾。因此，我們可以確認全年產量預測為每天 170 萬桶。我們也確認了對 GGP、Enilive 和 Plenitude 的獲利指導。在我們較低的情境假設下，我們預計將從營運中產生 110 億歐元的現金流，這比我們的敏感性所暗示的要好一些。我們希望透過我所描述的現金緩解措施（包括將淨上限設定在 60 億歐元以下）來評估這種影響。因此，我們也可以確認2025年的槓桿率在0.15%至0.2%之間，在0.1%至0.2%的計畫範圍內。

We are very satisfied with our progress in 2025 year-to-date, both on the strategic and financial sides. The macro scenarios deteriorating is volatile and uncertain. But the action we are taking and flexibility mean we are in a position to resist its full impact. We can therefore advance our strategy and deliver on our shareholder commitments.

我們對 2025 年迄今在策略和財務方面取得的進展感到非常滿意。宏觀情勢惡化，動盪不定。但我們正在採取的行動和靈活性意味著我們有能力抵禦其全部影響。因此，我們可以推進我們的策略並履行我們對股東的承諾。

With that, I conclude my remarks and welcome any questions you may have.

我的發言到此結束，歡迎大家提出任何問題。

Thank you, Francesco. We will now, open to questions. Francesco is joined by Eni top management, and we will attempt to get around to answer all the questions you may have. As a courtesy to everybody who participates, can we keep it to two questions and then hopefully, we can get through everybody in the time allocated.

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。我們現在開始回答問題。Francesco 與 Eni 高階主管一同出席，我們將盡力解答您可能提出的所有問題。為了尊重每一位參與者，我們能否將問題限制在兩個，然後希望我們能夠在規定的時間內讓每個人都回答完。

Alejandro Vigil, Santander.

桑坦德的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。

Thank you, Jon, Francesco, for taking my questions and congratulations for the bid in this first quarter. The two questions I have is, one, about the guidance of production, the 1.7 million barrels per day. Your thoughts about the discussions about Kazakhstan, OpEx plus quotas, and if you think there is some risk coming from this situation? And the second question is about Enilive and the outlook for margins. Thank you for this spread that you have added to the release. I think it's very useful. But I'm very interested in the outlook for the margin evolution in the coming quarters in Enilive. Thank you.

謝謝喬恩、弗朗西斯科回答我的問題，並祝賀你們在第一季取得投標成功。我有兩個問題，一是關於產量指導，也就是每天 170 萬桶。您對哈薩克、營運支出加配額的討論有何看法？您是否認為這種情況會帶來一些風險？第二個問題是關於 Enilive 和利潤前景。感謝您為本發行版添加了這一傳播內容。我覺得它非常有用。但我對 Enilive 未來幾季的利潤率變化前景非常感興趣。謝謝。

I leave the floor to Guido Brusco for the first answer and Stefano Ballista for the one related to Enilive.

我把第一個答案留給 Guido Brusco，然後把與 Enilive 相關的問題留給 Stefano Ballista。

Well, as far as concerned, the production outlook, as you know, as anticipated also by Francesco, we have five significant startups, two in Angola, two in Norway, and one in Congo. So our production will grow over time to hit the guidance we gave. For Kazakhstan, so far, neither the operator of the asset nor the shareholder and the contracting company have been engaged by the authority for any production cuts.

嗯，就生產前景而言，正如你所知，正如弗朗西斯科所預測的那樣，我們有五家重要的新創企業，兩家在安哥拉，兩家在挪威，一家在剛果。因此，我們的產量將隨著時間的推移而增長，以達到我們給予的指導。對哈薩克來說，到目前為止，該資產的營運商、股東和承包公司都沒有受到當局的約束來進行任何減產。

Yes. Thank you for the question. Talking about biofuel view, first of all, this is a year of oversupply. This is something well-known. Rough number is about 2 million over-supply, demand versus supply. In the first quarter, we saw a demand, expected growth demand, and then we will deep dive a little bit, not coming yet. And reason is that actually players have the whole year to satisfy some obligation. And second reason, actually, there are some uncertainties in the U.S. that we expect to be clearly defined moving forward.

是的。謝謝你的提問。談到生物燃料的觀點，首先，今年是供應過剩的一年。這是眾所周知的事。粗略估計，供過於求約 200 萬，需求與供應之間存在矛盾。在第一季度，我們看到了需求，預期需求會成長，然後我們會深入一點，但目前還沒有到來。原因是實際上球員有整年的時間來履行一些義務。第二個原因，實際上，美國存在一些不確定因素，我們預期這些不確定因素在未來會被明確定義。

On demand, it's worth to highlight the sustainable aviation fuel 2% target for EU pretty much in this first half didn't come through. It is expected for the second half. And reason pretty much are twofold, the chance to get to satisfy the demand in the whole year and second, logistic facility to be in place. About U.S., it's relevant to highlight the low carbon fuel standard target of an increase the GHG reduction to 30% at the beginning of the year expected April 1 has been delayed given to technical, let me say, request from the Office of Administrative Law of California. And now, it is expected, well until some weeks ago it was beginning of September; now it's expected beginning of July given (inaudible) already gave a review of these technical aspects.

就需求而言，值得強調的是，歐盟今年上半年2%的永續航空燃料目標基本上沒有實現。預計下半年將會如此。原因大致有兩個，一是能夠滿足全年的需求，二是物流設施到位。關於美國，值得強調的是，低碳燃料標準的目標是在年初將溫室氣體減排量提高到 30%，預計 4 月 1 日實現，但由於技術原因（比如說，加州行政法辦公室的要求），這一目標被推遲了。而現在，預計幾週前還是九月初；現在預計在 7 月初，因為（聽不清楚）已經對這些技術方面進行了審查。

So overall, we see a path of margin increasing thanks to this rebalancing pathway we are viewing. I have to say, clearly, it's very relevant that we focus on value and not on volume. This is a clear strategic approach on an over-supply market. This is what we are doing. We are definitely focused on value, even reducing in some case volume. The more the system will move in that direction, the better it is going to be the improvement trajectory we are seeing and foreseeing.

因此，總體而言，由於我們正在觀察的這種再平衡路徑，我們看到利潤率將會上升。我必須說，顯然，我們關注的是價值而不是數量，這是非常重要的。這是針對供應過剩市場的明確策略方針。這就是我們正在做的事情。我們確實注重價值，甚至在某些情況下減少數量。系統越是朝著這個方向發展，我們所看到和預見的改進軌跡就越好。

Thanks, Alejandro.

謝謝，亞歷杭德羅。

Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.

Biraj Borkhataria，RBC。

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. Francesco, you touched on obviously the strength of the balance sheet and the progress you've made there which is obviously now looking in good shape. I was wondering, we've obviously seen the environment deteriorate a little bit more. You've touched on some of the smaller changes you've made to your capital program. But I guess the question is, what will we need to see price-wise or signal-wise to adjust your inactivities more materially there?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。弗朗西斯科，您顯然談到了資產負債表的強大以及您在那裡取得的進展，現在顯然狀況良好。我想知道，我們顯然看到環境進一步惡化了。您已經談到了對資本計劃所做的一些較小的改變。但我想問題是，我們需要在價格方面或訊號上看到什麼，才能更實質地調整你的不活動？

And then just to follow up for Stefano on sustainable aviation, in late March there was a joint statement from your customers, the airlines, arguing about concerns on availability and then the cost of staff and suggesting these mandates were not realistic or achievable. So I just wanted your thoughts on whether is it reasonable or realistic to assume that these mandates could be relaxed this year or do you expect policymakers to hold firm there? Thank you.

然後，為了跟進斯特凡諾關於可持續航空的問題，3 月底，你們的客戶，也就是航空公司發表了一份聯合聲明，討論了對可用性和員工成本的擔憂，並表示這些要求是不現實或無法實現的。因此，我只是想知道您的看法：假設今年這些規定會放寬是否合理或現實，或者您是否預期政策制定者會堅持這些規定？謝謝。

Yes. About the CapEx and the reaction to the price signals, clearly, we think that at the end of the day, once the tradition, the scenario you have the all the opportunities substantially to use different levers, that you, let's say, prioritize in terms of effectiveness, in term of impacts in future in future trends of the company and the target that the company has given. For this reason, we have announced this EUR2 billion of improvement in cash that around half is related to CapEx and cost improvement, so shifting certain investment, postponing or extending the execution of certain activity, efficiency. There is also a natural trend related to a lower market scenario that will imply a lower cost in executing the activity.

是的。關於資本支出和對價格訊號的反應，顯然，我們認為，最終，一旦形成了傳統，您就擁有了充分使用不同槓桿的所有機會，您可以根據有效性、未來對公司未來趨勢的影響以及公司設定的目標來確定優先順序。為此，我們宣布了 20 億歐元的現金改善，其中約一半與資本支出和成本改善有關，從而轉移某些投資、延遲或延長某些活動的執行，以提高效率。還有一種與較低的市場情景相關的自然趨勢，這意味著執行活動的成本較低。

And the remaining part is related -- split half and half between a portfolio improvement and the working capital effectiveness or a new action in terms of (inaudible) of working capital or stocks and then managing this activity. This gives us more flexibility for a worse scenario in case it will be necessary. I would say that there is no special or strict rules, what is the price that will imply a change in our CapEx profile. Clearly, if there is a further deterioration of the scenario, we will continue to apply even more lower lever, including the one that you were referring, CapEx, but also other activities that we can expedite and will contribute to cash even in a lower scenario. So I don't have a specific answer. What I can say, there is flexibility in our plan even to adjust to lower prices. Then I leave to Stefano.

剩下的部分是相關的－將投資組合改善和營運資本效率或營運資本或股票方面的新行動（聽不清楚）各分成一半，然後管理這項活動。如果有必要，這可以讓我們更靈活地應對更糟糕的情況。我想說的是，沒有特殊或嚴格的規則，什麼價格會意味著我們的資本支出狀況改變。顯然，如果情況進一步惡化，我們將繼續應用更低的槓桿，包括您所提到的資本支出，以及我們可以加快的其他活動，即使在較低的情況下也會為現金做出貢獻。所以我沒有具體的答案。我可以說的是，我們的計劃具有靈活性，甚至可以調整到更低的價格。然後我離開去找斯特凡諾。

Thank you, Francesco. Thanks for the question, actually. Short answer is, no, we actually don't think there is any chance to, let's say, not having in place this target. This is a mandatory target to present within the end of the year. And actually, if you don't fulfill it, there is going to be a carryover of the target next year and a penalty as well.

謝謝你，弗朗西斯科。確實，謝謝你的提問。簡短的回答是，不，我們實際上認為，沒有這個目標就不可能實現。這是今年年底前必須實現的目標。實際上，如果你沒有達成目標，那麼明年的目標就會被延後，而且還會受到懲罰。

Let me add just a couple of comments on the topic as a whole. Actually, soft capacity, it's in place in Europe and not only in Europe, actually, we have also some capacity in the U.S. and in China as well. In Europe, just to make an example, we got (inaudible) with up to 400,000 tonnes per year and we just start up a production beginning of this year. So the current mandate of 2%, that equals about 1 million, 1.2 million as capacity to be definitely fulfilled. So this is the first comment.

讓我就整個主題補充幾點評論。實際上，軟產能在歐洲已經到位，而且不僅在歐洲，我們在美國和中國也擁有一些產能。舉個例子，在歐洲，我們（聽不清楚）每年的產量高達 40 萬噸，我們今年年初才開始生產。因此，目前 2% 的要求，相當於肯定要達到 100 萬到 120 萬的產能。這是第一條評論。

Second comment, the target is on fuel supplier, actually, not on airlines, and even the matter of logistic, actually, it's not there because, for a transition period, you can fulfill the mandate. In a single airport, you don't need to be physically blending, biojet in each airport. This gives a lot of, let's say, flexibility in having it done.

第二點意見，目標其實是燃料供應商，而不是航空公司，甚至物流問題其實也不存在，因為在過渡期內，你可以履行任務。在單一機場中，您不需要在每個機場進行實體混合生物噴射機。可以說，這為完成這項工作提供了很大的靈活性。

And then let me say as last comment, probably, in terms of target, I have a little bit different perspective. Now, we got 2% in place up to 2030 and then 6%. So it's 3 times just from one year to another. In order to have, let's say, a proper development of the investments, actually, it would be a proper approach to get the sort of step-up along along the way. And in that way, you can, let's say, have a balanced approach between supply and demand. So there is space to work together with airlines to couple with the energy transition and the GHG reduction targets in an effective and efficient way.

然後，讓我說最後的評論，可能就目標而言，我有一點不同的觀點。現在，我們在 2030 年之前已實現 2% 的減稅目標，之後將達到 6%。所以每年都是 3 次。為了使投資得到適當的發展，實際上，採取一種適當的方法來實現投資的逐步提升。這樣，你就可以在供需之間達到平衡。因此，我們有空間與航空公司合作，以有效和高效的方式將能源轉型和溫室氣體減排目標結合起來。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Biraj.

謝謝，Biraj。

(technical difficulty) additional 600 in early April, in April 11, that is the amount that is related to the top-up of the 5% on the Enilive KKR deal. And then, we are working on this plan to potential transaction, 15%, 20%. The non-binding offer out there is, I would say, a strong competition pressure. I don't see any loss of valuation under the current market also because this is clearly a deal that has a long-term perspective and also eventually, we will be helped by a reduction of expectation or lower interest rate in the future.

（技術難度）4 月初，即 4 月 11 日，將額外增加 600 個，這是與補充 Enilive KKR 交易的 5% 相關的金額。然後，我們正在製定這個計劃，以實現潛在的交易，15%、20%。我想說，這種非約束性報價會帶來強大的競爭壓力。我認為在當前市場下不會有任何估值損失，因為這顯然是一筆具有長期前景的交易，而且最終，我們將受益於未來預期的降低或更低的利率。

On the deal on Africa, West Africa, we have all the documents ready, signed, and we are just waiting for the various approvals that are required in this activity. There is no mark provision that will impede to proceed. So I would say that almost 90%, 95% of our plan is already in our end or with very positive perception of this execution. In terms of Namibia, I leave now to Guido to provide all the updates.

關於非洲、西非的協議，我們已經準備好所有文件並簽署完畢，只等著獲得此活動所需的各種批准。沒有任何標記規定會阻礙繼續進行。所以我想說，我們計劃的幾乎 90% 到 95% 已經完成了，或者說我們對執行情況的看法非常積極。關於納米比亞，我現在請 Guido 提供所有最新消息。

Your question was quite timely as we just released a few minutes ago a press release where we confirmed that discovery in Namibia. The well successfully penetrated the target and the reservoir is showing good petrophysical properties. No water contact. We made an intensive acquisition campaign, (inaudible) loggings, hydrocarbon samples, sidewall cores. And in addition to that, we made also a well test and we achieved a flow rate in excess of 11,000 barrels of oil per day which was surface constrained. The oil is a light oil and with limited associated associated gas and very low inert gas. So very positive, very interesting. More assessment and more analysis, of course, will have to be made so the well will be temporarily plugged and abandoned. And the rig will be released and then we'll assess with the operator and the other partner the full size of the discovery.

您的問題非常及時，因為我們幾分鐘前剛剛發布了一份新聞稿，證實了在納米比亞的這一發現。該井成功鑽遇目標，儲層表現出良好的岩石物理特性。不接觸水。我們進行了密集的採集活動，（聽不清楚）記錄、碳氫化合物樣本、側壁岩心。除此之外，我們還進行了油井測試，實現了超過地面限制的每天 11,000 桶石油的流量。該油為輕質油，伴生氣有限，惰性氣體含量極低。非常積極，非常有趣。當然，還需要進行更多的評估和分析，以便暫時封鎖和廢棄該油井。鑽機將被釋放，然後我們將與操作員和其他合作夥伴一起評估發現的全部規模。

Thanks, Guido. Thanks, Josh. Good timing on that question.

謝謝，Guido。謝謝，喬希。這個問題的時機很好。

Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies.

賈科莫·羅密歐，傑富瑞。

Thank you. And can I just thank you as well for the incremental disclosures in these quarters' reports. They're very much welcome. Two questions for me, first one on the buyback. Today, you reconfirmed the $1.5 billion buyback at the lower macro scenario. This effectively stretches your CFFO pay at the upper end of your new range of a new policy. What happens if the macro deteriorates further? Are you comfortable going above that 40% payout, Francesco?

謝謝。我還要感謝您在這些季度報告中所作的增量揭露。我們非常歡迎他們。我有兩個問題，第一個是關於回購的。今天，您再次確認了在較低宏觀情景下 15 億美元的回購。這實際上將您的 CFFO 薪酬延長至新保單新範圍的上限。如果宏觀進一步惡化會發生什麼事？弗朗西斯科，你願意接受超過 40% 的賠償嗎？

And second question is on the agreement, the MOU you signed with the YPF on LNG in Argentina. Can you talk a bit on the attractiveness of Argentina as a potential energy exporters? And will you consider integrating these upstream and looking for assets there? Or you just happy with the share in the project?

第二個問題是關於您與 YPF 簽署的有關阿根廷液化天然氣的諒解備忘錄。您能否談談阿根廷作為潛在能源出口國的吸引力？您是否會考慮整合這些上游並在那裡尋找資產？或者您只是對項目中的份額感到滿意？

Thank you. I will reply to the first question, then I leave back to Guido for the Argentinian questions. About the buyback, clearly, you know that once we set our distribution policy and the amount starting level for the buyback, we said that in a way that will be a floor. And therefore, we are going to execute. This clearly, we give the reference in terms of percentage of cash flow distribution. But we have all delivered to keep this distribution policy in buyback affordable in our balance sheet because there is a lot of other tools that are not just the percentage of (inaudible) operation, but also the capability as we are seeing in this maneuver to balance this distribution also with free cash flow improvement in terms of portfolio or in terms of working capital. And clearly, the leverage level is another factor that has to be considered once you have to manage the (inaudible) of the price. So I think there is no issue at all on confirming this $1.5 billion even in a lower scenario. Clearly, eventually, you could accelerate or slow down a bit the pace of buyback, but this is part of the normal activity that we are able to execute within almost one year of the buyback plan. I leave now to Guido for the YPF deal.

謝謝。我將回答第一個問題，然後留給 Guido 回答阿根廷問題。關於回購，顯然，您知道，一旦我們設定了分配政策和回購的起始金額水平，我們就會說這將是一個底線。因此，我們將執行。這顯然，我們給出了現金流分配百分比的參考。但是，我們都已盡力使回購的分配政策在我們的資產負債表中保持可承受的水平，因為還有很多其他工具，不僅僅是（聽不清）運營的百分比，而且還有我們在這一策略中看到的能力，即平衡這種分配，同時還通過投資組合或營運資本方面的自由現金流改善。顯然，當你必須管理價格（聽不清楚）時，槓桿水平是另一個必須考慮的因素。所以我認為即使在較低的情況下確認這 15 億美元也完全沒有問題。顯然，最終，你可以稍微加快或減慢回購的速度，但這是我們在回購計畫實施後近一年內能夠執行的正常活動的一部分。現在我要去 Guido 討論 YPF 交易。

Yeah. The Vaca Muerta Basin is the second world largest shale gas field and the Argentina LNG project is an integrated project from the upstream up to the midstream in the export of the LNG. This is the objective to hit more than 30 million tonnes per annum by the early 2030. It has different phases, three phases, which will be run in parallel. Eni and YPF has signed an MOU to execute one of these three phases which would reach a total of 12 million tonnes per annum.

是的。瓦卡穆埃爾塔盆地是世界第二大頁岩氣田，阿根廷LNG計畫是LNG出口從上游到中游的一體化計畫。目標是到 2030 年初達到每年 3,000 萬噸以上。它有不同的階段，三個階段，將並行運行。Eni 和 YPF 已簽署諒解備忘錄，將執行其中的一個階段，總產量將達到每年 1,200 萬噸。

We're joining YPF, who has a very strong and deep country knowledge on the unconventional upstream of Vaca Muerta. They are operating this upset from decades, so they know pretty well the subsurface and all development and operation activities. While on our side, as Eni, we are recognized as a fast-track and low-cost project operator. And we would bring our experience and leadership particularly on floating LNG projects.

我們將加入 YPF，他們對瓦卡穆埃爾塔 (Vaca Muerta) 非常規上游有著非常豐富和深入的國家知識。他們已經運作這個礦場幾十年了，所以他們非常了解地下以及所有的開發和營運活動。而我們方面，作為埃尼公司，我們被公認為是一家快速且低成本的專案營運商。我們將帶來我們的經驗和領導力，特別是在浮動液化天然氣專案方面。

We are looking at this Argentina LNG project and full value chain to complement our portfolio of LNG and also to reach our strategic target of 20 million tonnes per per annum. And we think that the combination of the expertise of YPF on the upstream of Vaca Muerta and the expertise of Eni on the midstream floating LNG will set this venture for success.

我們正在研究這個阿根廷液化天然氣計畫和完整的價值鏈，以補充我們的液化天然氣產品組合，並實現每年 2,000 萬噸的戰略目標。我們認為，YPF 在瓦卡穆埃爾塔上游的專業知識與埃尼在中游浮式液化天然氣方面的專業知識相結合，將確保這項計畫成功。

Thanks, Guido. Thanks, Giacomo.

謝謝，Guido。謝謝，賈科莫。

Matt Smith, Bank of America.

美國銀行的馬特史密斯。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. The first, I wanted to come back to the sort of CapEx cuts that you sort of laid out today and you've sort of listed optimization and postponement of projects as one of the sources of the reduction in CapEx. I just wanted to understand sort of which projects you were specifically referring to. And I guess my broader question was if the current commodity price scenario was to to extend into next year, would any of these projects not be postponed but be canceled? So it'd be the first question. And then the second one, I wanted to come back to Namibia if I could, noting the information that you put out on the latest well today, I mean, given you've had additional time in the lab with the first discovery, I just wondered if you could compare or contrast, is it the correct read that the second discovery is better characteristics than the first? Or what additional color could you give us there, please? Thank you.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想回到您今天提出的資本支出削減問題，您列出的項目優化和延遲是資本支出削減的原因之一。我只是想了解您具體指的是哪些項目。我想我更廣泛的問題是，如果當前的大宗商品價格狀況延續到明年，這些項目中是否有任何一個不會被推遲而是會被取消？所以這是第一個問題。然後是第二個問題，如果可以的話，我想回到納米比亞，注意到您今天發布的有關最新油井的信息，我的意思是，考慮到您在實驗室中花了更多時間進行第一次發現，我只是想知道您是否可以進行比較或對比，第二次發現比第一次發現具有更好的特性，這是正確的解讀嗎？或者您能為我們提供什麼額外的顏色？謝謝。

On the CapEx optimization, there is no major project that we can point out specifically. It's a broader activity. Some exploration activities, some production optimization, activity related to the recharging, activity related eventually to the rebranding of our service stations. So it is spread around activity with marginal impact on a specific project. So you shouldn't expect any delay on the key and most important projects. About the Namibia, Guido --

在資本支出優化方面，我們沒有可以具體指出的重大項目。這是一項更廣泛的活動。一些勘探活動、一些生產優化、與充電相關的活​​動、最終與我們的服務站品牌重塑相關的活動。因此，它圍繞著對特定項目影響有限的活動。因此，您不應該預期關鍵和最重要的項目會有任何延誤。關於納米比亞，Guido--

About Namibia, it's too premature to make -- as I said when I spoke about it just a few minutes ago, we need to assess the full size of the discovery. It's really premature. We just finished the well testing. We're still in a phase where we have to do some work. And I would also recommend to refer to the operators to get more insights and information on the discovery itself.

關於納米比亞，現在下結論還為時過早——正如我幾分鐘前所說的那樣，我們需要對這一發現的全部規模進行評估。這確實為時過早。我們剛剛完成了油井測試。我們仍處於需要做一些工作的階段。我還建議諮詢操作員以獲得有關發現本身的更多見解和資訊。

Thank you. Thanks, Matt.

謝謝。謝謝，馬特。

Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs.

米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞，高盛。

Thank you, Jon, and congratulations on the strong results. Two questions if I may. First, I wanted to understand, with the new Cyprus gas development, when you expected production to come through and if you thought that could effectively revive exports from Damietta and effectively make Egypt once again an exporting country of LNG? And then secondly, on the Indonesia-Malaysia combination, I see you continue to progress the negotiations there. I was wondering if you expect any kind of cash contribution for that deal or if it's likely to be a pure effectively combination of assets? Thank you.

謝謝你，喬恩，恭喜你有如此優異的成績。我可以問兩個問題。首先，我想了解一下，隨著塞浦路斯天然氣新開發項目的實施，您預計何時能夠實現產量增長，以及您是否認為這可以有效恢復達米埃塔的出口，並使埃及再次成為液化天然氣出口國？其次，關於印尼和馬來西亞的組合問題，我看到你們繼續推動談判。我想知道您是否期望該交易有任何形式的現金貢獻，或者它是否可能是純粹有效的資產組合？謝謝。

On the Indonesia-Malaysia, clearly, I can tell you what is the experience in this kind of combination. Once you set up the new entity, the new company, you clearly design not only the business plan with the investment and the different or relative ratio between the parties, but also a financial plan. That is a result of the addition of this kind of asset and therefore, the capability for the new entity to leverage on this asset for more financial capability. And therefore, there is generally a contribution that is related to the possibility to have certain dividend front that will help to generate cash, more cash than in a standalone situation. Then on Cyprus, if Guido will --

關於印尼和馬來西亞，我可以清楚地告訴你這種結合的經驗是什麼。一旦你建立了新的實體，新的公司，你不僅要明確設計投資的商業計劃以及各方之間的不同或相對比例，還要設計財務計劃。這是增加此類資產的結果，因此，新實體能夠利用該資產來獲得更多的財務能力。因此，通常存在的貢獻與獲得一定股息的可能性有關，這將有助於產生現金，比獨立情況下產生更多的現金。那麼在塞普勒斯，如果 Guido 願意--

On Cyprus, we are working for an FID within the year with a partner and the two host government. It will be a subsea tied back to the Egyptian facilities. So we expect an execution time between two and two-and-a-half year from the FID. So if we will be able to make an FID by the end of this year, production may come sometime between Q4 '27, Q1 '28. Of course, to have Egypt again as a net exporter, a few more things has to happen. There is a growing confidence on the ability of Egypt to kick out more investment. They are continuing to pay their outstanding receivables. So there is more activity, in general, not just from Eni but also from other operators. And there is also, again, a restart of the journey on the increase of the capacity of renewable which will free up more gas for exports. So the combination of these two things together with the new development and the Cyprus Gas may set Egypt again in a couple of years as a net exporter again, but this is not just linked to the Cyprus Gas.

在塞浦路斯，我們正在與合作夥伴和兩個東道國政府合作，爭取在年內做出最終投資決定。它將是一條與埃及設施相連的海底管道。因此，我們預計從最終決定到最終決定的執行時間約為兩年到兩年半。因此，如果我們能夠在今年年底之前做出最終投資決定，那麼生產可能會在 2027 年第四季至 2028 年第一季之間進行。當然，要讓埃及再次成為淨出口國，還需要做些什麼。人們對於埃及吸引更多投資的能力越來越有信心。他們正在繼續支付未償付的應收帳款。因此，整體而言，不僅埃尼公司有更多活動，其他業者也有更多活動。此外，我們還將重新開始增加再生能源產能，這將釋放更多的天然氣用於出口。因此，這兩件事加上新的發展和塞浦路斯天然氣可能會使埃及在幾年後再次成為淨出口國，但這不僅僅與塞浦路斯天然氣有關。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Michele.

謝謝，米歇爾。

Alessandro Pozzi, Mediobanca.

亞歷山德羅·波齊（Alessandro Pozzi），Mediobanca。

Thank you for taking the questions. I have two. The first one is on the cost-saving initiatives of EUR2 billion CapEx. I think there are other large initiatives regarding working capital and other costs. I was wondering if you can give us maybe more colors on those as well. And with regards to Argentina, I was wondering what is the level of investment that you're planning to make over the next few years and whether potentially, you're looking to invest in upstream, I guess so, and the type of maybe production levels that you expect from the country when phase one will be online? Thank you.

感謝您回答這些問題。我有兩個。第一個是20億歐元資本支出的成本節約措施。我認為還有其他有關營運資金和其他成本的重大措施。我想知道您是否也可以為我們提供更多顏色。關於阿根廷，我想知道您計劃在未來幾年進行多少投資，以及是否有可能投資上游，我想是的，當第一階段上線時，您預計該國的生產水平是什麼樣的？謝謝。

About the cash initiative, I mentioned before almost more than EUR1 billion is related to the CapEx and cost improvement. CapEx, as we said, are mainly related to postponement of certain activity that could be a standard without major impacts on a big project, but just related to certain activity that could be executed in a longer time. In terms of cost, there will be a natural reduction in terms of costs, also related to the lower scenario. And we do expect that there is also benefit from the portfolio activity. Of the remaining EUR1 billion that we said, there is almost half. So around EUR500 million is related to the portfolio improvement in terms of less cash-out and better value on the potential cash-in. And on the other side, the remaining part is related to the cash initiatives that are management of working capital. This is the maximum I can describe you. If you want to describe Argentina, Guido?

關於現金計劃，我之前提到過，幾乎超過 10 億歐元與資本支出和成本改進有關。正如我們所說，資本支出主要與延遲某些活動有關，這些活動可能是一種標準，不會對大項目產生重大影響，但僅與可以在較長時間內執行的某些活動有關。在成本方面，成本方面會自然減少，這也與較低的情境有關。我們確實預期投資組合活動也將帶來好處。我們說的剩下的10億歐元，幾乎有一半。因此，約 5 億歐元與投資組合改善有關，即減少現金支出並提高潛在現金價值。另一方面，剩餘部分與營運資本管理的現金計畫有關。這是我能對你做出的最大程度的描述。如果要形容一下阿根廷，圭多？

Argentina is an integrated project so, basically, we will be all along the value chain, from the upstream to midstream, balanced ideally. So having the same equity in both sides. The project, of course, is in a very early stage. But the phase three, the phase that we are assessing with YPF of 12 million tonnes per annum will have cost in the region of $20 billion, of course, I mean, I'm including all cost from upstream to the transportation, to the midstream and the liquefaction.

阿根廷是一個綜合項目，因此，基本上，我們將沿著整個價值鏈，從上游到中游，實現理想的平衡。因此雙方擁有相同的股權。當然，該項目還處於非常早期的階段。但第三階段，即我們評估的每年 1200 萬噸 YPF 階段，將花費約 200 億美元，當然，我的意思是，我包括了從上游到運輸、到中游和液化的所有成本。

And is that included in your four-year CapEx guidance or is it on top?

這是否包含在您的四年資本支出指導中，還是放在最高水準？

We are speaking about an MOU that is still to be clearly designed, defined, and with a lot of activity that had to be fine-tuned later on, so it's not yet included.

我們正在討論一份諒解備忘錄，該備忘錄仍有待明確設計和定義，而且還有很多活動需要稍後進行微調，因此它尚未被納入。

Thanks, Alessandro.

謝謝，亞歷山德羅。

Peter Low, Redburn.

彼得洛，雷德伯恩。

Hi. Thanks. The first question was just on the tax rate in the quarter, a bit lower than we expected. Can you perhaps just outline what was driving that? And then maybe what we should expect for the rest of the year? Will it kind of return to that 50% to 55% range? And then the second question was just on production in the quarter, particularly gas. There's quite a large sequential step-down. I think you called out disposals in the release. But I thought those were more bit more oil weighted. So I just wanted to check was anything like maintenance or turnarounds kind of impacting that gas number in the quarter? Thanks.

你好。謝謝。第一個問題是關於本季的稅率，比我們預期的要低一點。您能否簡單概括一下造成這現象的原因？那麼，我們或許該對今年剩餘的時間抱持著怎樣的期待呢？它會回到 50% 到 55% 的範圍嗎？第二個問題是關於本季的生產，特別是天然氣。存在相當大的連續降壓。我認為您在發布中提到了處置。但我認為那些更多的是油性成分。所以我只是想檢查一下維護或週轉等因素是否會對本季的天然氣數量產生影響？謝謝。

About the tax rate, clearly, the tax rate in this quarter was positively impacted by the structure of the results. It's a quarter where you have the benefit of contribution from GGP, from planning for the power. And this is lowering, generally, say higher price of oil and gas from the geographies, even of upstream, that has a lower tax rate. So this quarter is a quarter that of a tax rate that you could generally expect once there is this mix of contributors.

關於稅率，顯然，本季的稅率受到了業績結構的正面影響。在這個季度中，您可以從 GGP 的貢獻和電力規劃中獲益。整體而言，這會降低稅率較低地區的石油和天然氣價格，甚至是上游地區的石油和天然氣價格。因此，一旦有這種貢獻者組合，這個季度的稅率就是你通常預期的稅率的四分之一。

The trend for the year in a scenario that we lowered in terms of oil prices, we'll see the tax rate increasing towards the upper end of the expectation, 55% could be a rough estimate where you could see the results coming. So clearly, the quarter will contribute, but we do expect an increase in the coming months because the price of oil that we are designing or planning is lower and the contribution of the lower tax rate businesses will be less impactful. And then I leave it to Guido for the gas.

在我們降低油價的情況下，今年的趨勢是，我們將看到稅率上升到預期的上限，55％可能是粗略的估計，您可以看到結果。因此顯然，本季將會有貢獻，但我們確實預計未來幾個月會增加，因為我們正在設計或計劃的石油價格較低，低稅率業務的貢獻影響較小。然後我把汽油交給 Guido 負責。

And for production in general, if we compare, sequentially, quarter four with quarter one, the decrease is essentially driven by lower entitlement in some country where we have gas production, some PSA effect in Libya, Indonesia, and Algeria, and some M&A impact in U.S.

對於整體產量而言，如果我們按順序比較第四季度和第一季度，產量下降主要是由於某些天然氣生產國的權益份額較低，利比亞、印尼和阿爾及利亞的產量分成合約效應，以及美國併購的影響。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Irene Himona, Bernstein.

艾琳希莫娜，伯恩斯坦。

Thank you. Good afternoon. First, a quick question on cash flow. From your announced recent disposals, how much would you expect to close and book in the second quarter, please? And then secondly, on E&P, your underlying borrow EBIT margin has improved sequentially quite a lot given that it was a similar oil price environment. You have indicated that around half of your planned disposals in the four-year plan is from upstream. So my question is, can we anticipate that as you continue high-grading the portfolio, that unit margin improvement can continue further and of course, it is structural, so presumably also your oil price sensitivity may change over time? Thank you.

謝謝。午安.首先，關於現金流的一個簡單問題。從您最近宣布的處置情況來看，您預計第二季將完成多少處置併入帳？其次，在 E&P 方面，考慮到類似的油價環境，您的基本借款息稅前利潤率已連續大幅提高。您曾表示，四年計畫中約有一半的處置計畫來自上游。所以我的問題是，我們是否可以預期，隨著您繼續提高投資組合的評級，單位利潤率的改善可以進一步持續，當然，這是結構性的，因此大概您的油價敏感度也會隨著時間而改變？謝謝。

On the disposal side, on this second quarter, we have already cashed in EUR600 million that are related to the KKR deal. We are potentially expecting the closing of the West African deal. But that could slip also to the third quarter, taking into account of the different authorities that have to be involved. And therefore, it's something that we could expect during the summer, let's say. And we do expect clearly that we are able to proceed to the next step for the planning to deal. So this will not clearly be a cash-in date, but will be in this quarter potentially a conclusion of the tender activity that we are executing.

在處置方面，在第二季度，我們已經兌現了與 KKR 交易相關的 6 億歐元。我們可能正在等待西非交易的完成。但考慮到涉及的不同部門，這一數字也可能推遲到第三季。因此，可以說這是我們在夏天可以期待的事情。我們確實明確地期望我們能夠繼續進行下一步的規劃。因此，這顯然不是一個兌現日期，但可能是本季我們正在執行的招標活動的結束。

I mean, the improvement of the EBIT per barrel and cash flow per barrel, as we anticipated also in our capital market update, is structural as we are high-grading our portfolio developing high-value barrel and disposing lower-value barrel. So it's a structural phenomena which, over time, should continue, of course.

我的意思是，正如我們在資本市場更新中所預期的那樣，每桶息稅前利潤和每桶現金流的改善是結構性的，因為我們正在對我們的投資組合進行高評級，開發高價值的桶並處置低價值的桶。所以這是一種結構性現象，當然，隨著時間的推移，它會持續下去。

Thanks, Irene, for your questions.

艾琳，謝謝你的提問。

Paul Redman, BNP.

英國國家黨保羅‧雷德曼。

Hi Jon. And team, thank you very much for your time. Two questions from me. First is on the cash flow mitigation chart. And we've got a bunch of buckets here, I just wanted to work out if any of these are structural reductions or whether these are one-off impacts that we could see a reverse impact in 2026? And secondly, just to look at the refining business, it's a second sequential loss for that business, just trying to work out your outlook for the year for that business. Do we expect any change in margins, any changes in utilization rates as we go through 2025? Thank you very much.

你好，喬恩。團隊，非常感謝你們抽出時間。我有兩個問題。首先是現金流緩解圖表。我們這裡有很多桶，我只是想弄清楚其中是否有結構性減少，或者這些是否是一次性影響，我們可能會在 2026 年看到逆轉影響？其次，僅看一下煉油業務，這是該業務連續第二次虧損，只是想了解該業務今年的前景。我們預計到 2025 年利潤率和利用率會有什麼變化嗎？非常感謝。

On the cash initiative, these are clearly structural because, except for the few delays that we mentioned that are spread around between executing a certain activity, there were the branding of Enilive station or EV charge or certain special activity, all the rest are related to factoring. Working capital management, that means substantially something that is not absorbed during the year, and the cost reduction, as we said, also is related to the improvement and also the scenario that we are facing that clearly has a lower cost of energy overall. So I think these are clearly structural changes and structural improvement, including the portfolio variation that we mentioned in terms of higher valuation or higher stake. The refinery, I think that Pino or -- Yes, please.

在現金計劃中，這些顯然是結構性的，因為除了我們提到的在執行某項活動之間分散的少數延遲之外，還有 Enilive 站或電動汽車充電或某些特殊活動的品牌推廣，其餘的都與保理有關。營運資本管理，這實質上意味著一年內未吸收的部分，以及成本降低，正如我們所說，也與改善有關，也與我們面臨的總體能源成本較低的情況有關。所以我認為這些顯然是結構性變化和結構性改進，包括我們提到的更高估值或更高股權的投資組合變化。煉油廠，我認為皮諾或——是的，請。

Thanks, Francesco. About the refining losses in the first quarter, this is due to the drop of the margin. And the fact that we added during the quarter the start of the maintenance in refinery and then upset in SEC of (inaudible). What we expect is to increase the refinery utilization starting from the second quarter. And while we expect the margin will remain slightly better than today, but not so bullish like last year.

謝謝，弗朗西斯科。關於第一季煉油虧損，這是由於利潤率的下降。事實上，我們在本季度增加了煉油廠的維護工作，然後 SEC 的（聽不清楚）。我們預計從第二季開始煉油廠的利用率將會提高。雖然我們預期利潤率會比現在略好一些，但不會像去年那麼樂觀。

Thanks, Pino.

謝謝，皮諾。

Henry Tarr, Berenberg.

亨利·塔爾 (Henry Tarr)，貝倫貝格 (Berenberg)。

Thanks for taking the question. So two questions, just to come back to Enilive, is the contribution from the margins from the straight bio side positive at this point for you or are you essentially making all of the money on the marketing side rather than the actual manufacturing of the fuel is the first question. And then the second is just on the cash flow, so lease interest payments, is Q1 a good run rate for the rest of the year at sort of EUR370 million-ish? Thank you.

感謝您回答這個問題。所以有兩個問題，回到 Enilive，第一個問題是，目前直接生物燃料方面的利潤貢獻對您來說是積極的嗎，或者您基本上把所有的錢都花在了營銷方面，而不是燃料的實際製造上。然後第二個問題是關於現金流，那麼租賃利息支付，第一季的運行率是否達到 3.7 億歐元左右，對於今年剩餘時間來說是一個良好的水平？謝謝。

I leave to Stefano for the first question and then I come back to the second one.

我把第一個問題留給斯特凡諾，然後我再回答第二個問題。

Thank you for the question. The contribution margin it's slightly positive, clearly related to the scenario. As I mentioned before, we definitely focus on value and not on volume, so we prefer to avoid production that is not going to be accretive in terms of value. I have to add actually that the integrated approach that characterize Enilive give us the chance to, let's say, optimize margin thanks to our captive market, and this is going to give an extra contribution compared, let me say, to the pure market value.

謝謝你的提問。貢獻利潤率略為正，顯然與情境相關。正如我之前提到的，我們絕對關注的是價值而不是數量，所以我們寧願避免那些在價值上不會增值的生產。實際上，我必須補充一點，Enilive 特有的綜合方法使我們有機會透過我們的專屬市場來優化利潤，與純市場價值相比，這將帶來額外的貢獻。

On the lease impact, over the year, I would expect an increase during the year, clearly, also because there are some certain start-up of initiative and project that will attract additional leads. So this quarter is, let's say, a proxy but it's still a bit light towards what is the running rate during the next quarters.

就租賃影響而言，我預計全年影響會增加，顯然，這也是因為某些計劃和項目的啟動將吸引更多的潛在客戶。因此，可以說本季是代理，但對於未來幾季的運行率來說，它仍然有點模糊。

Thanks, Henry.

謝謝，亨利。

Matt Lofting, J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通的馬特‧洛夫廷 (Matt Lofting)。

Thanks all for taking the questions. First, I just wanted to come back to the capital allocation changes that Eni made this morning and particularly the gross CapEx. It looks like you sort of effectively put through the lower part of 5% to 10% reduction in full-year gross CapEx versus what you outlined in Feb. If you aggregate everything up, can you just sort of share a sense of how much of that is activity related versus sort of finding underlying efficiency measures? And then secondly, following up on the comments earlier on refining, if you take refining inversalis combined, I mean, clearly still a challenge in Q1. Is there any signs more recently of any improvement in margins to the degree that you're seeing some degree of lower feedstock costs, particularly perhaps through Eni's higher cost assets which perhaps have most or more to benefit? Thanks.

感謝大家回答問題。首先，我只想回顧一下埃尼公司今天早上所做的資本配置變化，特別是總資本支出。看起來，與您在 2 月概述的內容相比，您實際上已經將全年總資本支出減少了 5% 到 10%。如果您將所有內容匯總起來，您能否分享其中有多少與活動相關，有多少與尋找潛在的效率措施有關？其次，根據先前關於煉油的評論，如果將煉油逆向工程結合起來，那麼顯然在第一季仍然是一個挑戰。最近是否有跡象表明利潤率有所提高，以至於您看到原料成本降低，特別是透過埃尼成本較高的資產可能受益最多或更多？謝謝。

On the CapEx reduction, as I mentioned, mainly is a postponement activity. There is also a component that we mentioned about improving the reduction of all amount. If you want to have a split in the range of EUR500 million, EUR600 million we are referring, you could say that EUR200 million to EUR250 million is related to the postponement of the activity and the rest is a structural variation. You have to consider that we have contingency in our plan. So part of the activity that we present is already an implicit impact of possibility to manage flotation. So it is not a magic solution that we have, but sometimes it's just a matter to execute and to implement the contingency that we have inside. Then I leave to Adriano and to Pino for the answer about the --

關於資本支出的減少，正如我所提到的，主要是推遲活動。我們還提到了一個關於提高所有數量的減少的組件。如果您希望在我們所指的 5 億歐元、6 億歐元範圍內進行分割，您可以說 2 億歐元到 2.5 億歐元與活動的延遲有關，其餘的是結構性變化。你必須考慮到我們的計劃中有應急措施。因此，我們所提出的部分活動已經對管理上市的可能性產生了隱性影響。因此，我們並沒有神奇的解決方案，但有時這只是一個執行和實施我們內部應急措施的問題。然後我把答案留給阿德里亞諾和皮諾--

For the chemical side, in terms of the demand, we expect a slightly improvement in line with the seasonality because normally, the second quarter is better than Q1. But to be honest, the scenario is still on the trough of the cycle in terms of demand. For sure, we expect an improvement in terms of cost of utilities because virgin naphtha is expected to reduce. Right now in the second quarter, we expect also lower TTF and thermal gas, and we know that we consume quite a lot of energy for the chemical sector, so we expect an improvement in thermal margin for the rest of the year on the chemical side. And I leave Pino for the refinery.

對於化學品方面，就需求而言，我們預計需求會隨著季節性而略有改善，因為通常第二季比第一季更好。但說實話，就需求而言，情況仍處於週期的低谷。可以肯定的是，我們預計公用事業成本將會改善，因為預計原生石腦油價格將會降低。目前在第二季度，我們預計TTF和熱力氣也會降低，而且我們知道化學工業消耗了相當多的能源，因此我們預計今年剩餘時間內化工的熱力利潤率將會提高。我離開皮諾去煉油廠。

On the refinery side, we expect to slightly improve in the margin in the mid part of the year mainly due to the driving season. But not so far. In complexity, the refining margin, we expected that to remain not so bullish because of the market that is quite stable.

在煉油廠方面，我們預計今年中期利潤率將略有提高，這主要歸因於駕駛季節。但目前還不是。在複雜的情況下，由於市場相當穩定，我們預期煉油利潤率不會那麼樂觀。

Thanks, Pino. We're going to now move and thank you, everybody, for respecting the two questions. We're getting through this nice and quickly.

謝謝，皮諾。我們現在要繼續討論，感謝大家尊重這兩個問題。我們正順利而迅速地度過這一關。

Massimo Bonisoli, Equita.

馬西莫·博尼索利，Equita。

Good afternoon. Thank you. And two clarification questions for me. The first on the EUR2 billion mitigating initiatives. Could you give us a broader time frame for the savings to be realized and the eventual one-off cost associated with the savings? The second question on the outlook for GGP. You mentioned the upside of over EUR1 billion. Can you shed some light on the market conditions needed to improve the guidance and to renegotiate the contract versus current conditions? Thank you.

午安.謝謝。還有兩個問題需要我澄清。第一項是20億歐元的紓緩措施。您能否為我們提供實現節省的更廣泛的時間框架以及與節省相關的最終一次性成本？第二個問題是關於 GGP 的前景。您提到了超過 10 億歐元的上升空間。您能否解釋一下，相對於當前情況，改善指導和重新談判合約所需的市場條件？謝謝。

First of all, the EUR2 billion is a free cash flow impact. It means that it is executed within the year and completed within the year. So there are actions that are, let's say, captured immediately, so the postponement of activity in line with the execution of that activity. The possibility to have certain savings that we mentioned about the lower scenario, the portfolio improvement, et cetera, is something that are already generating the result. Clearly, it requires also the time for executing the project. You have to consider that the economic benefit is higher than the cash flow benefit because, clearly, the economic cut will be -- or the improvement is something that has a higher value but that clearly is cut within the 12 months that are ending within December. On the scenario and the gas --

首先，20億歐元是自由現金流的影響。就是年內實施，年內完成。因此，有些動作可以立即捕獲，因此活動的延遲與該活動的執行一致。我們提到的較低情境下的某些節省、投資組合改善等的可能性已經產生了結果。顯然，執行該專案也需要時間。你必須考慮到經濟效益高於現金流效益，因為顯然經濟削減將是——或者改進是具有更高價值的東西，但顯然在 12 月結束的 12 個月內削減。關於場景和氣體--

Yeah. So talking about the upside case for GGP, you pointed out to two elements which are actually the ones that we also are pursuing. One is the renegotiation and negotiation of our supply and sales contracts. This is, as you know, a normal feature of the business. We have a few re-discussions ongoing, and I would say that probably the summer will be the period in which we might see some of those completing. And depending on the outcome of those discussions, this could have some value unlocked.

是的。因此，談到 GGP 的優勢情況，您指出了兩個實際上也是我們正在追求的因素。一是對我們的供應和銷售合約進行重新談判和協商。如您所知，這是業務的正常特徵。我們正在進行一些重新討論，我想說，可能在夏季我們可能會看到其中一些討論完成。根據這些討論的結果，這可能會釋放一些價值。

In terms of market condition, we are fairly, let's say, defended from the downside risk of flat price. We have some upside linked to clearly flat price increase instead. And the other elements that actually we like in terms of producing more value is spreads and volatility. So low geographical spreads, (inaudible) spreads, summer winter spreads, those are part of the volatility that you know if those happen, we will be able to capture.

從市場狀況來看，我們可以說，相當不錯地抵禦了價格持平的下行風險。相反，我們有一些與明顯平穩的價格上漲相關的好處。就創造更多價值而言，我們實際上喜歡的其他因素是價差和波動性。因此，低地理價差、（聽不清楚）價差、夏季冬季價差，這些都是波動性的一部分，如果發生這些情況，我們將能夠捕捉到。

Thank you, Massimo. Thanks, [Christian].

謝謝你，馬西莫。謝謝，[基督教]。

Kim Fustler, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的金‧福斯特勒 (Kim Fustler)。

Good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. I had two, please. First on Venezuela, could you comment on any impact on your operations and your ability to lift crude cargo from the revocation of export licenses and secondary tariffs on the country? And then lastly, just a quick housekeeping question. You've cashed at about EUR3 billion in the first quarter from the sale of Enilive to KKR, but we can't actually see the disposal proceeds in the cash flow statement. So if you could point to where we're supposed to look at, that would be helpful. Thank you.

下午好，感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩份。首先關於委內瑞拉，您能否評論一下該國出口許可證被撤銷和二級關稅對您的營運和運輸原油的能力有何影響？最後，我問一個簡單的基本問題。您在第一季透過將 Enilive 出售給 KKR 獲得了約 30 億歐元的現金，但我們實際上無法在現金流量表中看到處置收益。因此，如果您能指出我們應該關注的地方，那將會很有幫助。謝謝。

On Venezuela, Guido?

關於委內瑞拉，圭多？

Venezuela, as you know, we have, essentially, gas production. We produce gas for domestic market and to feed the gas-fired power plant for civil consumption. And we have been paid in the past by in kind, essentially. So now, we are engaging the U.S. authorities to find ways to be paid, but at the same time, be compliant with the new regime imposed by U.S. And we are confident that by the year end, we'll find a way to honor our commitment towards the population and honor also the compliance with the U.S. sanctions.

眾所周知，委內瑞拉主要生產天然氣。我們生產天然氣供應國內市場，並供給燃氣發電廠供民用。過去，我們基本上都是以實物形式獲得報酬的。因此，現在我們正在與美國當局合作，尋找獲得付款的方式，但同時遵守美國實施的新制度。我們相信，到今年年底，我們將找到一種方法來履行對人民的承諾，同時也遵守美國的製裁。

And Kim, I'll come back to you on the cash flow statement and the structure. The cash is in there, but it's not straightforward. So I can do that for you. But we'll do that offline if that's okay.

金，我會向你報告現金流量表和結構。現金就在那裡，但這並不簡單。所以我可以為你做到這一點。但如果可以的話，我們會離線進行。

Lydia Rainforth, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Thank you, Jon. And good afternoon. Two final questions, if I could. The first one, these are both big pictures, but given where the balance sheet is and it's much stronger than it was even a year ago, but in previous kind of downturns, it does give you a more privileged position into how you respond to volatility than in the past. So I'm just actually asking you to reflect on that. Does having that strength of balance sheet impact how you think about how you respond? And are there opportunities that it opens up?

謝謝你，喬恩。午安.如果可以的話，我最後問兩個問題。第一個，這些都是大局，但考慮到資產負債表的狀況，它比一年前要強勁得多，但在以前的經濟衰退中，它確實讓你在如何應對波動方面比過去處於更有利的地位。所以我其實只是想請你反思這一點。資產負債表的實力是否會影響您對因應方式的看法？它會帶來什麼機會嗎？

And then secondly, I hear everything you say about the cash management, the mitigation measures that you're putting in place. And hopefully, when you start the buyback, it actually helps the relative share price performance even further. But given where the share price is, do you ever start thinking about we can lean into the balance sheet a bit more and buy back even more shares just given where the share price actually is? Thanks.

其次，我聽到了您所說的有關現金管理和您正在實施的緩解措施的一切。希望當你開始回購時，它實際上能夠進一步幫助相對股價表現。但考慮到股價的現狀，你有沒有想過，我們是否可以更依賴資產負債表，並根據股價的實際水平回購更多股票？謝謝。

Clearly, on the leverage and the privilege probably to be the unique company inside the peer group that probably will reduce its leverage in the coming quarters, thanks to the execution of a strategy that is already anticipating potential downturn and there's a structural robustness in Eni's structure. I think that will give us the opportunity to manage the volatility. Volatilities in the current market is that one day you have a drop by 5%, then there is a rebound of 2%, 3%. There is another (inaudible) and a lot of things are counter to it.

顯然，就槓桿率和特權而言，埃尼可能成為同行中唯一一家可能在未來幾季降低槓桿率的公司，這要歸功於其實施的一項已經預見到潛在衰退的策略，而且埃尼的結構具有結構穩健性。我認為這將為我們提供管理波動的機會。目前市場的波動性是，某一天下跌 5%，然後反彈 2% 或 3%。還有另一個（聽不清楚），很多事情都與之相反。

It's very difficult to understand what are the fundamentals and what is the psychology of the market. So this strong balance sheet will give us the opportunity to select the best levers in order not to impact, to match our strategy execution, to have different opportunities, clearly to execute whatever we like, and also to keep some additional levers out for the bad times when these bad times will come out. So this is clearly something that for us is a unique time we had. And it is a great chance to be effective. But clearly, also to be vigilant on what is going on and not, let's say, to rely on a positive expectation, a positive scenario.

很難理解什麼是基本面，什麼是市場心理。因此，這張強勁的資產負債表將使我們有機會選擇最佳的槓桿，以免產生影響，以匹配我們的策略執行，擁有不同的機會，明確地執行我們喜歡的任何事情，並為這些糟糕時期出現的糟糕時期保留一些額外的槓桿。所以這顯然是我們經歷過的一個獨特的時刻。這是一個發揮效力的絕佳機會。但顯然，也要對正在發生的事情保持警惕，而不是依賴積極的預期或積極的情景。

In terms of buyback, you know that we are approving the buyback with the policy that we have presented during the next AGM. Then we started to buy. And then, we will see also the time the condition we'll have, and we will execute. But I cannot anticipate what is the pace of execution because, clearly, this is part of the rule of the game. There is a clear advantage or interest in buying back at a lower price. That is a normal logic.

關於回購，您知道我們將按照下次年度股東大會提出的政策批准回購。然後我們就開始購買。然後，我們還將看到我們擁有的條件的時間，以及我們將執行的時間。但我無法預測執行的速度，因為顯然這是遊戲規則的一部分。以較低價格回購具有明顯的優勢或利益。這是正常的邏輯。

I think that we have ended. I don't know if, Jon, we have something else to conclude.

我想我們已經結束了。喬恩，我不知道我們是否有其他結論。

We have Francesco. That's all the questions done. Thank you, everybody, for attending the call. Thank you for your questions. Thank you for the speed and directness we got through that. I think it worked very well. So wishing you a happy end of the week. Good luck for next week and speak to you soon. Thanks a lot.

我們有弗朗西斯科。所有問題都已解答完畢。感謝大家參加電話會議。感謝您的提問。感謝您讓我們如此迅速和直接地解決了這個問題。我認為效果很好。祝您週末愉快。祝你下週好運，很快再和你聯絡。多謝。