埃尼石油 (E) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Eni's 2023 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results Conference Call, hosted by Mr. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive Officer.

女士們、先生們，下午好，歡迎參加由執行長 Claudio Descalzi 先生主持的埃尼 2023 年第四季和全年業績電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference. Thank you.

（操作員指示）我現在將您交給主持人，開始今天的會議。謝謝。

Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to our 2023 full year and Q4 results presentation. 2023 was an excellent year for Eni. Our continuous focus has been on mitigating the impact of a market characterized by price and margin volatility as well as a critical geopolitical context. .

謝謝。下午好，歡迎來到我們的 2023 年全年和第四季業績發表會。 2023 年對埃尼來說是極好的一年。我們一直致力於減輕以價格和利潤波動以及關鍵地緣政治背景為特徵的市場的影響。 。

We maintained a direction aligned with our strategy and successfully achieved or beat our targets for the year while also improving the efficiency of our assets. This resulted in the second-best financial performance by Eni in its current structure.

我們保持與策略一致的方向，成功實現或超越了今年的目標，同時也提高了資產效率。這使得埃尼集團在其當前結構中的財務表現排名第二。

Our aim was to capture strong results but also to foster our growth ambitions, meaning we also advanced our Transition strategy very significantly. It has been a very active year, so now let’s go through the highlights.

我們的目標是取得強勁的業績，同時也培養我們的成長雄心，這意味著我們也大大推進了我們的轉型策略。這是非常活躍的一年，現在讓我們回顧一下亮點。

In the Upstream, we brought onstream two important operated projects in line with our fast-track model of phased development. Baleine Phase 1 started production at the end of August, less than 18 months from FID. At the end of December, we announced first production of gas into the Tango facility at our Congo LNG project only 12 months after sanction.

在上游，我們依照分階段開發的快速通道模式投產了兩個重要的營運項目。 Baleine一期於8月底投產，距離最終投資決定不到18個月。 12 月底，我們宣布剛果液化天然氣計畫的 Tango 設施在製裁後僅 12 個月就首次生產天然氣。

Key to our E&P strategy is feeding in new, advantaged resources from our industry leading exploration. The highlight was Geng North, the largest commercial discovery in the industry last year. Indonesia will become an area of major focus for our upstream in the coming years, benefitting from a network of facilities with spare capacity that will help to fast-track future production at competitive cost.

我們勘探與生產策略的關鍵是從我們領先業界的勘探中註入新的優勢資源。亮點是耿北，這是去年該行業最大的商業發現。印尼將成為我們上游未來幾年的主要關注地區，受益於具有閒置產能的設施網絡，這將有助於以具有競爭力的成本快速追蹤未來的生產。

But Indonesia was not a standalone success. In fact, our Nargis exploration well in the Egyptian offshore was also a top-5 discovery.

但印尼並不是一個獨立的成功國家。事實上，我們在埃及近海的納爾吉斯勘探井也是前五的發現。

A distinctive feature of Eni’s strategy is our organic model, but also focused portfolio management plays a critical role as we shape our business. Undoubtedly our highest profile deal was the purchase of Neptune, announced in June and completed at the end of January, a few months earlier than expected. I will update you a little more on that shortly.

埃尼策略的一個顯著特徵是我們的有機模式，但重點投資組合管理在我們塑造業務時也發揮關鍵作用。毫無疑問，我們最引人注目的交易是收購 Neptune，該交易於 6 月宣布，並於 1 月底完成，比預期早了幾個月。我很快就會向您介紹更多相關情況。

We are constantly looking to high-grade our portfolio also via divestment, and in the year, we announced the sale of non-core producing assets in Congo and Nigeria, onshore, both of which were approaching completion.

我們不斷尋求透過撤資來提高我們的投資組合，今年，我們宣佈出售剛果和尼日利亞陸上非核心生產資產，這兩個資產都已接近完成。

In December we were delighted to announce the investment by Energy Infrastructure Partners into Plenitude, providing new and aligned capital to support its growth path while also confirming and valorizing part of the value we have already created. The satellite model, of which Plenitude is an example with its circa EUR 10 billion of Enterprise Value, is a key enabler for Eni to sustain growth and deliver shareholder value across the multiple energy vectors we are focused on.

12 月，我們很高興地宣布能源基礎設施合作夥伴對 Plenitude 進行投資，提供新的、一致的資本來支持其成長道路，同時也確認和增值我們已經創造的部分價值。衛星模型（以 Plenitude 為例，其企業價值約為 100 億歐元）是埃尼在我們關注的多個能源領域維持成長並提供股東價值的關鍵推動因素。

In Enilive, our purchase of a 50% stake in the Chalmette bio-refinery in the US, marked a new stage in establishing a leading international and integrated bio-refining business. In addition, we acquired full control of Novamont, a market leader in the biochemical sector, which will become another pillar in our strategy of transformation.

在Enilive，我們收購了美國查爾梅特生物煉製廠50%的股權，標誌著建立國際領先的綜合性生物煉製業務進入了新的階段。此外，我們也全面控股了生化領域的市場領導者Novamont，這將成為我們轉型策略的另一個支柱。

In CCS we reached an agreement with the UK Government on key terms of the economic, regulatory and governance model for the transportation and storage of CO2 on Hynet. This is a major step forward for a line of business that will be increasingly important over the coming years and where Eni has a leading European position.

在 CCS 中，我們與英國政府就 Hynet 上二氧化碳運輸和儲存的經濟、監管和治理模式的關鍵條款達成了協議。對於未來幾年將變得越來越重要且埃尼在歐洲處於領先地位的業務線來說，這是向前邁出的重要一步。

The progress we have made from a strategic perspective was also echoed in Eni’s operating performance. Full year production of 1.655 million barrel per day in the upper end of the guidance range, and 3% higher year-on-year. We discovered around 900 million barrels of new resources, which more than covers 2023 production.

我們從策略角度取得的進展也反映在埃尼的經營績效中。全年產量為 165.5 萬桶/日，處於指導範圍上限，年增 3%。我們發現了約 9 億桶新資源，超過了 2023 年的產量。

Amid lower European demand of gas, our GGP was effective in meeting customer needs in the absence of Russian volumes, and also recorded the highest result in its history.

在歐洲天然氣需求較低的情況下，我們的 GGP 在俄羅斯天然氣供應不足的情況下有效滿足了客戶需求，並創下了歷史最高成績。

Plenitude end the year with 3 gigawatt of historic renewable capacity, up by more than 1/3 year-on-year and in line with guidance.

截至年底，Plenitude 的再生能源裝置容量達到 3 吉瓦，創下歷史新高，年成長超過 1/3，符合指導方針。

2023 bio-refineries throughputs were up almost 60% year-on-year, while biofuel capacity at 1.65 million tonnes per year was 50% higher after our U.S. acquisition.

到 2023 年，我們收購美國公司後，生物煉油廠的產量將年增近 60%，而生質燃料產能將達到每年 165 萬噸，成長 50%。

Our Upstream net carbon Scope 1 and 2 footprint fell by 10% in 2023, and is now down by 40% versus the 2018 baseline, in line with our aim to Net Zero in the Upstream by 2030.

我們的上游範圍 1 和範圍 2 淨碳足跡在 2023 年下降了 10%，目前與 2018 年基線相比下降了 40%，這符合我們到 2030 年上游實現淨零排放的目標。

Turning to our financial results, the news is also positive. EBIT proforma of EUR 17.8 billion, including EUR 4 billion from associates, is the second highest result in the history of the company in its current form. Net profit of EUR 8.3 billion converts to EUR 16.5 billion of CFFO, and both confirm the historical top end of our yearly performance. In fact, this excellent results reflect a very significant improvement versus our expectations, around EUR 3.5 billion on EBIT and EUR 2 billion on cash flow that offset the impact of the weaker scenario.

談到我們的財務業績，這個消息也是正面的。預計息稅前利潤為 178 億歐元，其中包括來自聯營公司的 40 億歐元，是該公司當前形式歷史上第二高的表現。 83 億歐元的淨利潤轉換為 165 億歐元的 CFFO，兩者都確認了我們年度業績的歷史最高值。事實上，這項出色的業績反映了與我們預期相比的顯著改善，息稅前利潤約為 35 億歐元，現金流約為 20 億歐元，抵消了較弱情境的影響。

CapEx of EUR 9.2 billion was below our budget of EUR 9.5 billion, confirming that we are efficiently investing in the context of a rigorous capital discipline.

92 億歐元的資本支出低於我們 95 億歐元的預算，這證實了我們在嚴格的資本紀律的背景下進行了有效的投資。

We stepped up share buybacks in the fourth quarter to EUR 790 million, totaling EUR 1.8 billion for the year with around EUR 400 million to finish our program in Q1. Our full payout is equivalent to around 32% of our 2023 adjusted CFFO, above our original guidance. Shares in issue are down 9% over the past 2 years, enhancing the participation in business that is also increasingly bigger and better. Indeed, in the past 2 years, Eni has distributed almost EUR 11 billion to its shareholders, the highest amount since our listing.

我們在第四季加大了股票回購力度，達到 7.9 億歐元，全年總額為 18 億歐元，其中約 4 億歐元用於在第一季完成我們的計畫。我們的全額支付相當於 2023 年調整後 CFFO 的 32% 左右，高於我們最初的指導。已發行股票在過去兩年中下降了9%，增強了對規模越來越大、越來越好的業務的參與度。事實上，在過去兩年中，埃尼已向股東分配了近 110 億歐元，這是我們上市以來的最高金額。

Leverage at 20% remains low by historical standards, and the balance sheet provides us with flexibility to pursue our strategy while retaining considerable resilience.

依照歷史標準，20%的槓桿率仍然較低，資產負債表為我們提供了執行策略的靈活性，同時保持了相當大的彈性。

That is an overview of the strategic operational and financial delivery for the year. I'll now move on the business division in a little more detail.

這是本年度策略營運和財務交付的概述。現在我將更詳細地介紹業務部門。

Starting with E&P production for the full year was 1.66 million barrels per day, up 3% year-on-year, and up 6% in the quarter to 1.71 million barrel per day. In the quarter, we saw higher activity in Algeria, seasonal effects in the North Sea and the benefit of strong regularity in Kazakhstan, Baleine ramp-up, and better performance and entitlement in Libya.

全年勘探與生產產量為 166 萬桶/日，年增 3%，本季成長 6%，達到 171 萬桶/日。本季度，我們看到阿爾及利亞的活動增加、北海的季節性影響、哈薩克強大的規律性帶來的好處、Baleine 的增長以及利比亞更好的表現和權利。

Full year proforma EBIT in E&P of EUR 13.3 billion mainly reflects the impact of lower prices when compared with 2022, partly compensated by higher volumes, while Q4 earnings include higher exploration write-offs, which is typical of the quarter.

全年勘探與生產的預計息稅前利潤為133 億歐元，主要反映了與2022 年相比價格較低的影響，部分由產量增加所補償，而第四季度收益包括較高的勘探沖銷，這是該季度的典型現象。

GGP reported EBIT of EUR 680 million in Q4, benefiting from a favorable outcome to an arbitration in the quarter. But with the underlying result muted by lower gas prices and reduced trading flexibility, as we had expected it to be.

GGP 報告第四季度息稅前利潤為 6.8 億歐元，受益於本季仲裁的有利結果。但正如我們所預期的那樣，由於天然氣價格下跌和交易彈性降低，基本結果受到削弱。

Record full year EBIT of almost EUR 3.3 billion took the benefit of strong optimization activity in the first half of the year, in particular, highlighting the leverage to favorable condition that the GGP retains by virtue of its diverse supply and infrastructure position.

全年息稅前利潤創歷史新高，接近 33 億歐元，得益於上半年強勁的優化活動，特別凸顯了 GGP 憑藉其多樣化的供應和基礎設施地位而保持的有利條件。

Our Neptune acquisition was one of the key events of 2023. After announcing the deal in late June, we achieved completion on the 31st of January for an investment of $2.4 billion in cash out and debt acquired, adjusted down from the headline of $2.6 billion as a result of the cash flows accruing since the deal's reference date.

我們對Neptune 的收購是2023 年的關鍵事件之一。在6 月下旬宣布該交易後，我們於1 月31 日完成了24 億美元的現金支出和收購債務的投資，從26 億美元的標題調整為自交易參考日以來產生的現金流量的結果。

Net Production consolidated directly by Eni and through our share of Var is currently over 100,000 barrels per day. The high proportion of gas production, currently around 75%, and the low Scope 1 and 2 emissions profile precisely aligned with our strategic direction.

目前，埃尼集團直接並透過我們持有的 Var 股份合併的淨產量超過 100,000 桶/日。天然氣產量的高比例（目前約 75%）以及範圍 1 和範圍 2 的低排放情況與我們的策略方向完全一致。

The value proposition is clear, with synergies estimated at $0.5 billion and with material upside, which includes the new discovery of Geng and the higher share of IDD fields in Indonesia, additional gas supply optimization, and potential CCUS project.

價值主張很明確，協同效應估計為 5 億美元，並具有實質優勢，其中包括 Geng 的新發現和印尼 IDD 氣田的更高份額、額外的天然氣供應優化以及潛在的 CCUS 項目。

Our portfolio activity will also progress as we continue to high-grade with announced divestment in West Africa to complete in 2024.

隨著我們宣布將於 2024 年完成西非撤資，我們的投資組合活動也將取得進展。

Turning to Energy Evolution. Enilive reported around a 10% improvement in EBIT year-on-year despite weaker product markets, mainly reflecting improved bio-refinery performance, both in terms of asset optimization and feedstock flexibility, confirming our vertically integrated model is delivering.

轉向能源進化。儘管產品市場疲軟，Enilive 的息稅前利潤同比仍增長了約 10%，這主要反映了生物煉油廠在資產優化和原料靈活性方面的績效改善，證實了我們的垂直整​​合模式正在發揮作用。

With activities now in 8 countries, agri-feedstock production has increased to more than 40,000 tonnes per year, and it is on track to provide meaningful earnings over time. Our Refining earnings were impacted by the fall in the SERM, but also by the narrowing in light/heavy and sweet/sour differentials.

目前，農業原料生產已遍及 8 個國家，年產量已增加至 40,000 多噸，並且預計會隨著時間的推移提供可觀的收入。我們的煉油收益受到 SERM 下降的影響，也受到輕/重質和甜/酸差異縮小的影響。

Our Chemicals result reflect the very challenging market conditions, especially for European manufacturers, and confirm our strategic intent to transform this business and also to increase focus on specialties and bio-plastics.

我們的化學品結果反映了非常具有挑戰性的市場條件，特別是對於歐洲製造商而言，並證實了我們轉型該業務並增加對特種塑料和生物塑料的關注的戰略意圖。

Plenitude delivered on its target for installed renewables capacity or 3 gigawatts at year-end, up by more than 1/3. Renewable energy production actually grew more, up by over 50%. But more importantly, Plenitude delivered financial results with a full year EBIT up 50% year-on-year to over EUR 500 million, and EBITDA up 40% year-on-year to over EUR 900 million.

Plenitude 實現了年底再生能源裝置容量 3 吉瓦的目標，成長超過 1/3。再生能源產量實際上成長更快，成長了 50% 以上。但更重要的是，Plenitude 的財務表現全年 EBIT 年成長 50%，超過 5 億歐元，EBITDA 年成長 40%，超過 9 億歐元。

After the remarkably strong first 9 months, Q4 EBIT, as expected, made a more moderate contribution reflecting higher depreciation charges, as new renewable capacity and EV charging points entered service.

在經歷了前9 個月的強勁表現之後，隨著新的可再生能源發電和電動車充電站投入使用，第四季度息稅前利潤（EBIT）正如預期的那樣做出了更溫和的貢獻，反映出折舊費用的增加。

The 2023 result of Plenitude came in the context of another highly volatile and challenging year for energy suppliers, and again, emphasize the quality of the model. This fact is recognized in the enterprise value of EUR 10 billion placed on the business by the recent agreement with Energy Infrastructure Partners to invest in Plenitude.

Plenitude 的 2023 年結果是在能源供應商又一個高度波動且充滿挑戰的一年的背景下得出的，並再次強調了模型的品質。最近與能源基礎設施合作夥伴簽署的投資 Plenitude 的協議，賦予該業務 100 億歐元的企業價值，這一事實就得到了證實。

Before concluding, I would like to highlight the key results of the year that exceeded all the regional metrics, both operating and financial, right across the business. This strong financial outcome, driven by the operating performance of the underlying businesses and the delivery of significant strategic progress, all helped in outcome where we deliver the best shareholder returns among our peers group in 2023.

在結束之前，我想強調今年的主要業績，這些業績超越了整個企業的所有區域指標（包括營運和財務指標）。在基礎業務的經營業績和重大策略進展的推動下，我們取得了強勁的財務成果，所有這些都有助於我們在 2023 年實現同業中最佳的股東回報。

We will update on our strategic progress and future targets when we meet again on the 14th of March for our Capital Markets Day. We will elaborate on how Eni is embracing the changes in energy markets to build a stronger company, leveraging the growth potential of new business, while preserving the full value of traditional sources, themes that are evident in our 2023 result.

當我們在 3 月 14 日資本市場日再次召開會議時，我們將介紹我們的策略進展和未來目標。我們將詳細介紹埃尼如何適應能源市場的變化，打造一家更強大的公司，利用新業務的成長潛力，同時保留傳統能源的全部價值，這些主題在我們 2023 年的業績中顯而易見。

And now with our top manager, we are ready to answer your question.

現在，我們的高級經理已準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Biraj Borkhataria of Royal Bank of Canada.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is on the chemicals business. You suffered weak results for several quarters in a row now, and it's obviously been quite a tough environment for European chemicals.

第一個是化學品業務。現在已經連續幾季業績不佳，對於歐洲化學品來說，這顯然是一個相當艱難的環境。

What more can you do to stop the bleeding there? Can you talk about some of the plans in place that you can control?

你還能做什麼來止血呢？您能談談您可以控制的一些計劃嗎？

And secondly, the question is on Egypt. This is a big country for Eni, and obviously, the country is having a number of issues on the financing front. What do you expect for the summer in terms of LNG exports? And also, have you adjusted the activity levels at all, given the issues with payments? And maybe you can talk about the receivables balance as it stands today?

其次，問題是關於埃及的。對埃尼來說，這是一個大國，顯然，該國在融資方面存在許多問題。您對夏季液化天然氣出口有何預期？另外，考慮到付款問題，您是否調整了活動量？也許您可以談談目前的應收帳款餘額？

Just a few words about chemical, and then I give the floor to Alfani, the CEO of Versalis.

簡單介紹一下化學，然後我請 Versalis 執行長阿爾法尼 (Alfani) 發言。

No, we are conscious about chemicals. We tried in the past, and we are -- continue trying to change some line, but now it's time to consider more radical initiatives that are going through a transformation, in the same way we did for our bio-refinery.

不，我們對化學品很敏感。我們過去曾嘗試過，並且正在繼續嘗試改變某些路線，但現在是時候考慮正在經歷轉型的更激進的舉措了，就像我們為生物精煉廠所做的那樣。

So we have to transform the plan. Clearly, the direction to go to biochemicals, also in light of the acquisition we made of Eni [Mantua], and also the other project that we developed and implemented from our R&D, that is one, but it's not enough. Go through a specialty is not enough. So we have to do some more strong action because it's really an area where we can create a huge value.

所以我們必須改變計劃。顯然，考慮到我們對埃尼[曼圖亞]的收購，以及我們透過研發開發和實施的另一個項目，生化的方向就是其中之一，但這還不夠。僅透過專業是不夠的。所以我們必須採取一些更有力的行動，因為這確實是一個我們可以創造巨大價值的領域。

So now I can give the floor to Adriano to maybe elaborate a little bit more on this topic.

現在我可以請阿德里亞諾發言，以便對這個主題進行更詳細的闡述。

Sure. Thanks, Claudio. Thanks for the question.

當然。謝謝，克勞迪奧。謝謝你的提問。

I mean, first of all, as Claudio was saying, we need to go extremely bullish in terms of -- on efficiency of the entire business. Clearly, we have some case of inefficiency that has been increased due to the recent situation that we are facing in Europe. And of course, in some cases, we are getting a little more inefficient. So we are developing a stronger process in order to improve our efficiency across the entire value chain, entire process.

我的意思是，首先，正如克勞迪奧所說，我們需要對整個業務的效率非常樂觀。顯然，由於歐洲最近面臨的情況，我們的效率低下的情況有所增加。當然，在某些情況下，我們的效率會變得更低一些。因此，我們正在開發更強大的流程，以提高整個價值鏈、整個流程的效率。

But in terms of -- the other 3 pillars that we are focusing on is, one is the specialization portfolio, with the recent acquisition of the FIM project and some other development, in relation of integration of the business and with our portfolio, we decided to further speed up the growing thermal specialization, diversification of the portfolio. So this is one.

但就我們關注的其他三個支柱而言，其中之一是專業化產品組合，隨著最近收購 FIM 項目和其他一些發展，在業務整合和我們的產品組合方面，我們決定進一步加快不斷發展的熱力專業化、產品組合多元化。這是其中之一。

The second one is circularity, and we are moving very fast on circularity. This year, we are going to start the Phase 1 of the mechanical recycling in Porto Marghera, and by the end of 2024, we expect to complete the construction of the first chemical recycling plant in Mantua, it's a pilot plant or same industrial plant, with the intention then to speed up in terms of industrial processes.

第二個是循環性，我們在循環性方面進展非常快。今年，我們將在馬格拉港啟動機械回收的第一階段，到2024年底，我們預計將在曼圖亞完成第一個化學回收工廠的建設，這是一個試點工廠或同一個工業工廠，目的是加快工業進程。

And of course, as also Claudio was saying about the acquisition of Novamont, the acquisition of Novamont is another big cluster to differentiated to grow this platform, not only in the direction Novamont was already doing, but also integrating the portfolio with our specialized portfolio and so to really double digit grow in terms of biochemistry.

當然，正如克勞迪奧在談到收購Novamont 時所說的那樣，收購Novamont 是另一個大集群，旨在實現這一平台的差異化發展，不僅朝著Novamont 已經在做的方向發展，而且還將該產品組合與我們的專業產品組合相整合，所以在生物化學方面真正實現兩位數的成長。

Thank you, Adriano. So a few words about Egypt, and I give the floor to Guido, Head of Natural Resources.

謝謝你，阿德里亞諾。關於埃及，我請自然資源主管吉多發言。

So first of all, clearly, Egypt is passing through as all North Africa and Middle East through a quite difficult situation in light of the event we have now with Gaza. So clearly, Eni is not in a very simple situation.

首先，顯然，鑑於我們現在與加薩發生的事件，埃及正在經歷與整個北非和中東一樣的相當困難的局勢。顯然，埃尼的處境並不簡單。

In spite of that, I have to say that Egypt is reacting. And we have to say also that Egypt is quite crucially important, critical in the area for everybody, for the Mediterranean, for North Africa, for Middle Easterns.

儘管如此，我不得不說埃及正在做出反應。我們也必須說，埃及對該地區的每個人、地中海、對北非、對中東人來說都至關重要。

So what I think and what is my perception, that everybody is trying now to add them. So saying that, if you talk about receivable, there is a small marginal buildup. They are paying maybe less little installment that they are paying. So there is a willingness to preserve and protect investors. So there is a very positive attitude.

所以我的想法和看法是，每個人現在都在嘗試添加它們。所以說，如果你談論應收帳款，就會有一個小小的邊際累積。他們支付的分期付款可能比他們支付的要少。因此，存在著保護投資者的意願。所以有一個非常積極的態度。

So now I give the floor to -- the question is also about LNG because the cargo we received in January and the rest. So now, Guido is talking a bit more,, elaborate on LNG.

所以現在我發言——問題也與液化天然氣有關，因為我們在一月份收到了貨物以及其他貨物。現在，Guido 正在詳細討論液化天然氣。

Yes. On LNG, the question was in the summer, I think. And the summary historically, there is very little, if no export in Egypt, given the high increase in the domestic demand.

是的。我認為，關於液化天然氣，問題是在夏天。從歷史上看，由於國內需求大幅增長，埃及的出口即使沒有也很少。

Currently, in the past couple of months, the end of Q4 2023 because of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there was reduction, sharp reduction of the import to Israel. So the export of LNG in Egypt was impacted.

目前，在過去的幾個月中，即2023年第四季末，由於巴以衝突，對以色列的進口出現了減少、急劇減少。因此埃及液化天然氣出口受到影響。

In December, they restarted with some volumes. And we have seen -- I mean, from Eni's side, 3 cargoes in December, and we are foreseeing between 8 to 10 cargo in the forthcoming months before the end of the winter season.

12 月，他們重新開始生產一些產品。我們已經看到——我的意思是，從埃尼方面來看，12 月有 3 批貨物，我們預計在冬季結束前的未來幾個月將有 8 到 10 批貨物。

The next question is from Clint, Oswald of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的克林特·奧斯瓦爾德。

Yes, first question, I mean, a bit of a step-up in gearing towards the end of the year. So I wanted just to get your thoughts around divestments, and really, the potential for more sizable or more aggressive upstream-focused divestments. I mean, still a lot of continued exploration success you're folding in Neptune. It feels like you've been buying a lot, so maybe a good time to start selling some of what is a high-quality inventory. It could free up capacity to potentially signal some peer-leading shareholder returns all the way through the plan, and keep the balance sheet flexibility that Claudio just mentioned around executing the strategy. So that's the first question.

是的，第一個問題，我的意思是，為年底做好準備。因此，我想了解你們對撤資的想法，以及更大規模、更積極的以上游為中心的撤資的潛力。我的意思是，海王星上仍然有很多持續探索的成功。感覺你已經買了很多東西，所以也許是開始出售一些優質庫存的好時機。它可以釋放能力，在整個計劃中潛在地暗示一些同行領先的股東回報，並保持克勞迪奧剛剛在執行該策略時提到的資產負債表靈活性。這是第一個問題。

Secondly, I wanted to ask about SAF, sustainable aviation fuel. I remember the great trip we had last year in Venice, and we talked about SAF upside of up to 2 million tonnes per annum based on demand. It seems like demand is ticking off. You've had this more sizable Ryanair deal recently, much more material than the DHL deal a couple of years ago.

其次，我想問SAF，永續航空燃料。我記得去年我們在威尼斯的一次很棒的旅行，我們談到了 SAF 根據需求每年的產量高達 200 萬噸。需求似乎正在減少。最近與瑞安航空達成的交易規模更大，比幾年前的 DHL 交易更重要。

So the question is, are you starting to see SAF customer demand track at the high end of your expectations? And really, I'd love to get an idea of the price you're selling this for. Is this 3x jet fuel? Is this 5x jet feel? It's hard to get an idea of what this might mean financially for the company.

所以問題是，您是否開始看到 SAF 客戶需求軌跡處於您期望的高端？事實上，我很想知道你們的售價。這是 3x 航空燃油嗎？這是5倍噴射機的感覺嗎？很難想像這對公司的財務意味著什麼。

Thank you for the questions. So the first question is for Francesco, and the second one for Stefano, yes.

謝謝你的提問。所以第一個問題是問弗朗西斯科的，第二個問題是問斯特凡諾的，是的。

Okay. Thank you. The question is about the gearing. Clearly, you have seen a step-up in the quarter, the quarter increase was expected. Actually, we had a result that was in line with our target, I think it accounted, there were some, let's say, variation in the exchange rate that was a bit more higher for the euro, and also because of the lack of the income that we are expecting to come before the end of the year related to Plenitude.

好的。謝謝。問題是關於齒輪。顯然，您已經看到本季的成長，季度成長是預期的。實際上，我們的結果符合我們的目標，我認為它考慮到了，比如說，匯率存在一些變化，歐元的匯率稍微高一點，而且還因為缺乏收入我們預計會在今年年底之前與 Plenitude 相關。

Anyway, that increase was generated mainly by the inclusion of Novamont debt inside the -- after the acquisition, some, as we said, the exchange rate effect and some cash related to leasing.

無論如何，這一增長主要是由於收購後將 Novamont 債務納入其中，正如我們所說，一些是匯率影響以及一些與租賃相關的現金。

In the plan, what you are going to expect is clearly exactly what you are mentioning. If you remember, the past plan was a plan where we had a relatively balanced in our, let's say, management of portfolio, with only EUR 1 billion of positive effect. And that was originated by the fact that we are still in a position where we are a buyer, while you will see that in the coming plan, you will have more, let's say, a stronger valorization of our assets, the Upstream with all the discovery that we have made and continuing to make.

在計劃中，你所期望的顯然正是你所提到的。如果你還記得的話，過去的計劃是一個我們在投資組合管理方面相對平衡的計劃，只有 10 億歐元的正面效果。這是因為我們仍然處於買家的地位，而你會看到在接下來的計劃中，你將擁有更多，比如說，我們的資產、上游以及所有資產的更強大的增值。我們已經做出並將繼續做出的發現。

And on the satellite that, as you well know, is a way also to accumulate cash in advance for fueling our future growth. So you will see a material impact of M&A, and this will have a clear strong effect on the net amount of CapEx we are going to pay.

如您所知，在衛星上，這也是提前累積現金以推動我們未來成長的一種方式。因此，您將看到併購的重大影響，這將對我們將要支付的資本支出淨額產生明顯的強烈影響。

Stefano for SAF trends and...

Stefano 了解 SAF 趨勢和...

Yes. Yes. On SAF, I definitely confirm the trend we discussed in Venice. So we are seeing exactly what you see, let's say, voluntary demand coming in place, in an increasing -- with increasing targets.

是的。是的。在SAF上，我絕對證實了我們在威尼斯討論的趨勢。因此，我們看到的正是你們所看到的，比如說，自願需求正在增加，而且目標也在增加。

Just to make some examples, we see airline companies targeting 10% at 2030, and logistic players targeting up to 30% still at 2030.

舉幾個例子，我們看到航空公司的目標是到 2030 年達到 10%，而物流企業的目標仍是 2030 年達到 30%。

In Europe, we got fuel aviation already approved. It means starting from 2025, 2% of global fuel will be biojet. This means, more than 1 million tonne, let's say, from 1 day to the other.

在歐洲，我們已經批准了燃油航空。這意味著從2025年開始，全球燃料的2%將是生物噴射發動機。這意味著，從一天到另一天，超過 100 萬噸。

On top, recently, the IEA said an increased target for biojet demand already in 2027 by up to 30%, and definitely confirmed a 50 million tonne at 2030. Just give a high-level number, in 2015, we see 500 million tonne of jet fuel, even assuming only 20% of biojet, we jumped at 100 million tonne of biojet demand. This means that the market is going to be in strong demand for biojet, and given the time to get facility in place, we are in a very good position to take advantage from this tight market we are going to see in the medium term.

最重要的是，最近，IEA 表示，到2027 年，生物噴射發動機的需求目標已增加了30%，並明確確認到2030 年將達到5000 萬噸。僅給出一個高水平的數字，2015 年，我們預計將有5 億噸生物噴射發動機。噴射燃料，即使假設僅佔生物噴射發動機的 20%，我們的生物噴射發動機需求也會猛增至 1 億噸。這意味著市場對生物噴射引擎的需求將會強勁，考慮到設施到位的時間，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以從我們將在中期看到的這個緊張的市場中獲益。

Anything you could say about pricing, sorry?

抱歉，您對定價有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes. No. Pricing and profitability is expected around 1.3%, 1.5% above HVO. This is not right now, right now, it's higher, but it's given to the very short market. So today, it doesn't make too much sense to look at current number. Reason for that is exactly what I said. The market is going to be short in terms of supply, given the current state of the art and the expected demand evolution on the other side. So that's the profitability we are going to expect. So a good boost on our results in the next future.

是的。不會。定價和盈利能力預計約為 1.3%，比 HVO 高 1.5%。這不是現在，現在，它更高，但它是給非常空頭的市場的。所以今天，看目前的數字沒有太大意義。原因正是我所說的。考慮到目前的技術水準和另一方面的預期需求變化，市場供應將會短缺。這就是我們預期的獲利能力。這對我們未來的業績有很大的推動作用。

The next question is from Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Alessandro Pozzi。

I have 2 questions. The first one is related to the production in Q4, which was really strong. And I was wondering if you can give us more color on the various moving parts of what I've seen is that Kazakhstan was very strong, and also North Africa had a big jump quarter-on-quarter. Part, I believe, was Algeria, but maybe also Libya. So if you can give us some color on whether maybe that could be sustainable going into 2024?

我有 2 個問題。第一個與第四季度的生產有關，該生產非常強勁。我想知道你是否可以給我們更多關於我所看到的各種變化部分的信息，哈薩克斯坦非常強大，北非也有季度環比的大幅躍升。我相信，一部分是阿爾及利亞，但也許還有利比亞。那麼您能否告訴我們這種情況在 2024 年是否可持續？

And also, I think though is, well, Egypt production, for me, Egypt, is coming down a little bit. And what should we expect from Zohr in terms of production going forward?

而且，我認為，埃及的產量，對我來說，埃及，正在下降一點。我們對 Zohr 未來的生產有何期望？

The second question is on Cronos-2, the recent positive results on the appraisal well. Is that a catalyst for developing Cronos on a stand-alone basis? Or if not, can you give the thoughts on where we are on Cyprus in terms of moving those resources forward?

第二個問題是關於 Cronos-2 的，最近評估井的正面結果。這是獨立開發 Cronos 的催化劑嗎？或者，如果沒有，您能否談談塞浦路斯在推動這些資源方面的進展？

That's all question for Guido. So please, Guido.

這都是吉多的問題。所以拜託，吉多。

Indeed, I mean, you spotted rightly, the production in Q4 was strong, and this was thanks to the ramp-up of Berlin, the recovery maintenance in Kazakhstan, higher contribution from Libya.

事實上，我的意思是，你沒有看錯，第四季度的生產強勁，這要歸功於柏林的成長、哈薩克的恢復維護以及利比亞的更高貢獻。

This production, as we move in 2024 in Q1, we'll be quite in line. The net portfolio effect will be partially compensated by lower entitlement in certain geographies. And while for what concern the Cronos, we can, of course, confirm that the recent appraisal well gave us comfort on the extension of the field, confirming the upper side of the estimation, while deliverability is excellent. And of course, we are still assessing with our partner and the authority, the best and most appropriate development scheme to bring these resources into production.

當我們在 2024 年第一季開始生產時，我們將非常順利。淨投資組合效應將透過某些地區較低的權益得到部分補償。而對於克羅諾斯的問題，我們當然可以確認，最近的評估很好地讓我們對領域的擴展感到滿意，確認了估計的上限，同時交付能力也非常好。當然，我們仍在與合作夥伴和權威機構一起評估最佳、最合適的開發方案，以將這些資源投入生產。

The next question is from Matt Smith of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的馬特史密斯。

A couple, please. The first one would be on GGP, another extraordinary year for the division. But I suppose arbitration award aside 4Q, it's very much been a year of 2 halves in regard to profitability.

請來一對。第一個是在 GGP 上，這是該部門又一個不平凡的一年。但我認為，除了第四季度的仲裁裁決之外，就獲利能力而言，這在很大程度上是兩年半的一年。

So I just wondered whether you could sort of speak to the current market conditions in terms of arbitrage opportunities, and also touch upon the sort of visibility you have into 2024?

所以我只是想知道您是否可以就套利機會談談當前的市場狀況，並談談您對 2024 年的看法？

And then the second one, on exploration. It was just whether there was any news on the Orion-1X well in Egypt or whether that should be due soon? Any timeline there would be useful, please.

然後是第二個，關於探索。只是埃及的 Orion-1X 井是否有任何消息，或者是否應該很快發布？任何時間表都會有用，拜託。

Okay. Cristian Signoretto for GGP, please.

好的。 GGP 的 Christian Signoretto 有請。

So thanks for the questions. Surely, 2023 has been very unusual, let's say, year, an exceptional year, because of important optimization and trading opportunities and also positive arbitration and settlements results.

謝謝你的提問。當然，2023 年是非常不尋常的一年，因為有重要的優化和交易機會，以及積極的仲裁和和解結果。

When we look at 2024, clearly, I mean, the market has been reducing its flat price, and this is, let's say, you can see that. But we feel that the volatility is still there because the market is very tight in the sense that the demand and supply are very finely balanced because new LNG coming onstream is very little.

當我們展望 2024 年時，很明顯，我的意思是，市場一直在降低其固定價格，也就是說，您可以看到這一點。但我們認為波動性仍然存在，因為市場非常緊張，因為新投產的液化天然氣很少，需求和供應非常平衡。

And demand is still very latent. If you look at European demand, Asian demand and also weather-driven demand, it's still very latent.

而且需求仍然非常潛在。如果你看看歐洲的需求、亞洲的需求以及天氣驅動的需求，你會發現它仍然非常潛在。

So we expect 2024 still to be a very volatile year, with opportunities to be captured via trading optimization activities.

因此，我們預計 2024 年仍然是非常不穩定的一年，可以透過交易優化活動抓住機會。

Okay. So I think that in Egypt very fast because we are drilling, so we cannot say anything. Correct?

好的。所以我認為在埃及速度非常快，因為我​​們正在鑽探，所以我們不能說什麼。正確的？

Yes, correct. I mean, we have yet to reach the target.

是，對的。我的意思是，我們還沒有達到目標。

The next question is from Irene Himona of Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的艾琳希莫納。

On the Upstream, I see that you now recognize the U.K. energy profit level as a recurring item. I wonder if you can provide some guidance on the E&P tax rate going forward includes 2 of these in the current environment?

在上游，我看到您現在將英國能源利潤水準視為經常性項目。我想知道您是否可以對未來的勘探與生產稅率提供一些指導，包括當前環境下的其中兩個？

And secondly, on the numbers, the fourth quarter net interest expense, you had EUR 54 million, was down very substantially over 50% sequentially. And you referred to the drivers in your press release. I wonder if we can anticipate this level to be sustainable in 2024?

其次，從數字來看，第四季的淨利息支出為 5,400 萬歐元，比上一季大幅下降了 50% 以上。您在新聞稿中提到了驅動程式。我想知道我們是否可以預期這個水準在 2024 年能夠持續？

Thank you, Irene. On the U.K. levy, we kept this since the start as a recurring item. We consider this due to the fact there is no expiration date, but there is a generical sentence related to the potential oil price for the removal to consider that in a recurring way.

謝謝你，艾琳。關於英國徵稅，我們從一開始就將其保留為經常性項目。我們之所以考慮這一點，是因為沒有到期日，但有一個與潛在油價相關的通用句子，可以反覆考慮刪除。

We are not able yet to provide you what will be the tax rate in the plan. What we can tell you is that the impact of these taxes versus last year, taking into account of the start at the end of the last year. Year-on-year basis, it's in the range of 1%, 0.7%, 0.8%.

我們尚無法向您提供計劃中的稅率。我們可以告訴您的是，考慮到去年年底開始的情況，這些稅收與去年相比的影響。年比來看，漲幅在1%、0.7%、0.8%之間。

On the net interest, we would be very happy if we continue, but unfortunately, it's not possible because you know that this is related to the financial assets that we have. We have almost EUR 18 billion of liquidity that are gaining both from the benefit of the interest rate growth. While on the other side, we have a 70%, 75% of our debt, gross debt, that is at fixed rate. So if the interest rate will start to go down and you have to refresh new debt, this net interest will be higher.

就淨利息而言，如果我們繼續下去，我們會非常高興，但不幸的是，這是不可能的，因為你知道這與我們擁有的金融資產有關。我們擁有近 180 億歐元的流動性，這些流動性都受益於利率成長。另一方面，我們有 70%、75% 的債務，也就是總債務，是固定利率的。因此，如果利率開始下降並且您必須刷新新債務，則淨利息將會更高。

Anyway, we will manage and we'll continue to use different tools to keep as low as possible to capture, let's say, as much as savings as possible through our liquidity position.

無論如何，我們將進行管理，並將繼續使用不同的工具來保持盡可能低的水平，以便透過我們的流動性頭寸捕獲盡可能多的儲蓄。

The next question is from Giacomo Romeo of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的賈科莫·羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo)。

First is very quick follow-up on your comments, earlier comments on GGP. And just, I understand, you are expecting to see more volatility in 2024. And just trying to understand how to read into the Q4 numbers, if we take out the impact from the arbitration. Should that be a good indication of a normalized level of profitability in the absence of significant volatility?

首先是對您的評論（先前對 GGP 的評論）的快速後續。我知道，您預計 2024 年會出現更多波動。如果我們排除仲裁的影響，我們想了解如何解讀第四季的數據。在沒有大幅波動的情況下，這應該是獲利能力正常化水準的良好指標嗎？

Second question is on Plenitude. We have seen some comments during the quarter -- during last month from your future partners that they're sort of talking down the prospects of an IPO of the business. Just wanting to check whether this is still the ultimate goal for Plenitude for you and whether there is a full alignment on this point with your future partners?

第二個問題是關於Plenitude的。我們在本季看到了一些評論——上個月來自你們未來的合作夥伴，他們在某種程度上貶低了該業務 IPO 的前景。只是想檢查一下這是否仍然是您 Plenitude 的最終目標，以及在這一點上與您未來的合作夥伴是否完全一致？

Thank you. So the first one is for Cristian, the second one for Francesco.

謝謝。所以第一個是克里斯蒂安的，第二個是弗朗西斯科的。

So well, I mean, in general, our results, it's, let's say, geared towards usually the Q1. Q1 usually is the strongest period and quarter of our, let's say, portfolio optimization opportunities for a number of reasons that, clearly, are very much linked to the type of assets that we have in our portfolio.

好吧，我的意思是，總的來說，我們的結果，可以說，通常是針對第一季的。第一季通常是我們的投資組合優化機會最強的時期和季度，原因有很多，顯然與我們投資組合中的資產類型密切相關。

So I'd say that the Q4 underlying result is not a predictor of the Q1 because of this, let's say, seasonality effect that you have in our business.

因此，我想說，第四季的基本結果並不是第一季的預測因素，因為我們業務中存在季節性效應。

Yes. On the planning to the road to the IPO, I confirm that we continue to plan our valorization through the different source, different way. We mentioned at the beginning that we're on track, if you remember, we have already started to deliver the first of this track by the fact that substantially we fixed a bar, a value that is one of the first element for rising our satellite model, specifically.

是的。關於IPO之路的規劃，我確認我們將繼續透過不同來源、不同方式來規劃我們的估值。我們在一開始就提到，我們已經步入正軌，如果你還記得的話，我們已經開始交付這條軌道的第一條，因為我們基本上固定了一個條，這個值是我們衛星升起的第一個元素之一模型，具體來說。

And clearly, we will continue to monitor the market condition, market condition in 2024 and 2025. Our partner that is yet, let's say, to enter in the entity, in the partnership, clearly, as mentioned, it's something that is probably was, let's say, more generic, a bit misunderstood, they were thinking that it was not necessary to do the IPO. It doesn't mean that this is the plan. The plan will be to do the IPO at the right condition from the market and clearly, to capture the best value from this opportunity.

顯然，我們將繼續監控市場狀況，2024 年和 2025 年的市場狀況。我們的合作夥伴，比如說，進入實體、合作夥伴關係，顯然，正如前面提到的，這可能是，比方說，更通用，有點誤解，他們認為沒有必要進行首次公開發行。這並不意味著這就是計劃。該計劃將是在市場合適的條件下進行首次公開募股，並明確地從這個機會中獲取最大價值。

The next question is from Michele Della Vigna of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞 (Michele Della Vigna)。

Congratulations on the strong debt delivery and exploration (inaudible), if I may.....

恭喜您強勁的債務交付和探索（聽不清楚），如果可以的話...

Mr. Della Vigna, we can't hear you very well. Can you please speak closer to the microphone?

Della Vigna 先生，我們聽不清楚。你能靠近麥克風說話嗎？

Sorry, can you hear me now?

抱歉，你現在聽得到我說話嗎？

A bit better, but the line, I think the line is not very good, but try again, Michele. Yes, better now. Yes.

好一點了，但是線路，我覺得線路不是很好，但是再試一次，米歇爾。是的，現在好多了。是的。

Okay. Sorry for that.

好的。對此感到抱歉。

I wanted to ask you 2 questions. The first one really, increasing your (inaudible) both on the LNG in the coming years. I was wondering if you could update us on (inaudible).

我想問你 2 個問題。第一個確實是，在未來幾年增加您對液化天然氣的（聽不清楚）。我想知道您是否可以向我們通報最新情況（聽不清楚）。

And my second question relates to carbon capture. We're seeing a lot of progress in (inaudible), much more policy support. You have one of the biggest development portfolio (inaudible). I was wondering if you could give us an update on the progress of that?

我的第二個問題與碳捕獲有關。我們看到在（聽不清楚）以及更多的政策支持方面取得了很大進展。您擁有最大的開發組合之一（聽不清楚）。我想知道你能否向我們介紹一下這方面的最新進展？

So Michele, so we just understood the second, but not really very well. We understood the one on update on the carbon capture.

米歇爾，所以我們只是理解了第二個，但不是很好。我們了解了有關碳捕獲的最新情況。

The first one, absolutely the line is so bad, and there are a lot of background noise. So we didn't understand the first one. Okay. Update Guido, you give an update, please, on CCS.

第一個，絕對是線路太差了，還有很多背景噪音。所以我們不明白第一個。好的。更新 Guido，請在 CCS 上提供更新。

I can give you, Michele, an update on our major CCS project. So for the Ravenna Phase 1, the project is in execution at the moment, and we are planning in early Q2 the start-up. While for the Phase 2, the project -- I mean, we are now doing the engineering work, and we are also completing the legislative framework with the Italian government. The plan is to make a final investment decision by Q2 2025 and a startup in 2027.

米歇爾，我可以向您介紹我們主要 CCS 專案的最新情況。因此，對於拉文納一期，該專案目前正在執行中，我們計劃在第二季初啟動。對於第二階段的專案——我的意思是，我們現在正在進行工程工作，我們也正在與義大利政府一起完成立法框架。該計劃計劃於 2025 年第二季做出最終投資決定，並於 2027 年啟動新創公司。

In U.K., you may have read that we have agreed with the U.K. authorities, the main economic model, and we are now negotiating the definitive economic license, which we expect to finalize sometime in Q2, Q3 this year. Engineering works have been already done. And from a technical side, we are now in the procurement phase of the project. And the target is to make a cluster FID by Q3 2024, with a start-up in 2027.

在英國，你可能已經讀到，我們已經與英國當局就主要經濟模式達成了一致，我們現在正在談判最終的經濟許可，我們預計將在今年第二、第三季度的某個時候敲定。工程工作已經完成。從技術方面來看，我們現在正處於該專案的採購階段。目標是在 2024 年第三季之前完成叢集 FID，並於 2027 年啟動。

Another important element is that in April, 5 [meters] out of a total of 8, which have been selected by the U.K. authorities, belongs to the (inaudible) Northwest cluster, and those have been selected as a priority meters to access the fund made available by the U.K. government.

另一個重要因素是，四月份英國當局選擇的總共 8 個米中，有 5 個屬於（聽不清楚）西北集群，這些米已被選為獲得該基金的優先米由英國政府提供。

The next question are from Josh Stone of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的喬希·斯通。

Two questions, please. Firstly, on your biofuel business, I just noticed throughput was down quarter-on-quarter despite the ramp-up of the (inaudible) bio-refinery. So was the maintenance impacting that? Or any comments you can make there?

請教兩個問題。首先，在您的生物燃料業務上，我剛剛注意到儘管（聽不清楚）生物煉油廠的產量有所增加，但吞吐量仍按季度下降。那麼維護有影響嗎？或者您有什麼意見可以在那裡提出嗎？

And potentially also if you could talk about where you see profitability in HVO today, given the impact of lower credit prices, both in Europe and the U.S., how much of your feedstock program is able to offset that?

考慮到歐洲和美國信貸價格下降的影響，如果您能談談您現在對 HVO 盈利能力的看法，您的原料計劃有多少能夠抵消這一影響？

And then second question on working capital. There was some release during the quarter. But if I go back over the last 2 years, there's sort of been a trend or it's about a $4 billion -- EUR 4 billion build over the last 2 years.

然後是關於營運資金的第二個問題。本季有一些釋放。但如果我回顧過去 2 年，就會發現有一種趨勢，或者說過去 2 年增加了 40 億美元——40 億歐元。

So how much of that do you think can release over the next period? Is there anything you can make any comments on that?

那麼您認為在接下來的一段時間內可以釋放多少？您對此有何評論？

Yes. So on HVO and on bio-products, 2024, it's a, let's say, transitionary year. This is well known and well expected.

是的。因此，對於 HVO 和生物產品而言，2024 年可以說是過渡年。這是眾所周知的，也是人們所期待的。

In Europe, we got Sweden change of obligation getting in place exactly this year. It's going to be partially compensated by a widespread of increased obligation in other countries, including, as an example, Italy, France, Ireland, among others.

在歐洲，瑞典的義務變更剛好在今年到位。其他國家（例如義大利、法國、愛爾蘭等）普遍增加的義務將部分補償這一損失。

In the medium term, we see still strong performance from biofuel demand for a set of reasons. I just touched the RED III directive, the renewable energy directive that has been approved by EU end of last year, countries are going to have 18 months to deploy at country level, a number. In terms of energy content, it's going to jump from 14% RED II to 29% Red III.

從中期來看，由於一系列原因，我們認為生物燃料需求仍然表現強勁。我剛剛談到了 RED III 指令，這是歐盟在去年年底批准的可再生能源指令，各國將有 18 個月的時間在國家層級進行部署。就能量含量而言，它將從 14% RED II 躍升至 29% Red III。

Same in U.S. We got this year a significant capacity getting in, well-known in advance. Demand is increasingly early in 2025. We're going to get impact from, among others, 2 main topic. One is the new clean production credit that is going to substitute the current blending tax credit. The new credit is going to apply on local facilities. So this is going to, in a way, create a barrier to current import flow to U.S. We have an estimated number of more than 1 million tonne coming to U.S. from foreign countries in 2023.

美國也是如此，今年我們獲得了大量產能，這是眾所周知的。到 2025 年，需求將越來越早。我們將受到 2 個主要主題的影響。一是新的清潔生產抵免，將取代目前的混合稅收抵免。新的信貸將適用於當地設施。因此，這將在某種程度上對美國目前的進口流量造成障礙。我們估計，到 2023 年，從外國進入美國的進口量將超過 100 萬噸。

The second point is -- the second element is carbon, it's expected to increase California target in terms of GHG reduction from 20% to 30%, 2030. And then last, just -- it's a small signal, but we got, a couple of days ago, New Mexico is the first non-West Coast state in U.S. approving an LCFS obligation mechanism, again, 20% GHG reduction in 2030. So in the medium term, demand is definitely increasing and strong.

第二點是——第二個元素是碳，預計到 2030 年將加州溫室氣體減排目標從 20% 提高到 30%。最後，只是——這是一個小信號，但我們得到了幾個幾天前，新墨西哥州是美國第一個批准LCFS 義務機制的非西海岸州，即到2030 年溫室氣體減排20%。因此，從中期來看，需求肯定會增加且強勁。

From an asset perspective, we are working on all key levers to optimize profitability at whatever market scenario, namely vertical integration, fit to flexibility, and product diversification. We are also looking to move flows from U.S. to Europe, wherever arbitrage are going to be open.

從資產角度來看，我們正在研究所有關鍵槓桿，以在任何市場情況下優化獲利能力，即垂直整合、適應性彈性和產品多元化。我們也希望將資金流從美國轉移到歐洲，無論哪裡有套利機會。

In terms of the working capital trend, it's very difficult to anticipate how we could be in the next quarter. Substantially, what we can do is, we can say that this is a matter of -- related to the trend of prices. So once you have a growing prices, there is generally an increase in your working capital position. And clearly, all your capability to lift, so to reduce your stock positioning, both in the upstream and clearly also in the other sector, in particular in the downstream.

就營運資金趨勢而言，很難預測下一季的情況。實質上，我們能做的是，我們可以說，這是一個與價格趨勢相關的問題。因此，一旦價格上漲，您的營運資金部位通常就會增加。顯然，你所有的能力都在提升，因此要減少你的庫存定位，無論是在上游，還是在其他行業，尤其是下游。

So I would say that clearly, we were very active from this point of view. On the other side, we were helped by the price trend.

所以我要明確地說，從這個角度來看，我們非常正面。另一方面，價格趨勢也為我們帶來了幫助。

The next question is from Alejandro Vigil of Santander.

下一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。

I have 2. One about the implications for Plenitude to the current scenario of lower power prices in Europe. If the business is going to have some implications in your strategy at this beginning of the year.

我有 2 個關於 Plenitude 對當前歐洲電價較低的情況的影響的問題。如果該業務將在今年年初對您的策略產生一些影響。

And the second question is about the outlook for refining in Europe. In the beginning of the year, we've also seen some increase in refining margins in January. If you can elaborate on your thoughts on that?

第二個問題是關於歐洲煉油業的前景。今年年初，我們也看到一月煉油利潤增加。您能否詳細闡述您對此的想法？

Okay. Stefano Goberti, CEO of Plenitude, answer the first question.

好的。 Plenitude 執行長 Stefano Goberti 回答第一個問題。

Thank you, Alejandro. On the energy price level, of course, on the renewal production, where there are spot prices, we will take the impact of the lower prices. But on the other side, on the retail activity, lower prices, reduced a lot our risk in the portfolio because the volume risk is reduced and the working capital is released. So our combined business model help us to pass through this period, like we did this year with the result of 2023.

謝謝你，亞歷杭德羅。當然，在能源價格水準上，在有現貨價格的更新生產上，我們將承受較低價格的影響。但另一方面，在零售活動中，較低的價格大大降低了我們投資組合的風險，因為交易量風險降低了，營運資金也被釋放了。因此，我們的合併業務模式幫助我們度過了這段時期，就像我們今年在 2023 年取得的成果一樣。

Pino? Can you answer?

皮諾？你可以回答嗎？

Yes. Okay. Could you hear me?

是的。好的。你聽見我？

Yes, yes, very well.

是的，是的，很好。

About the refining in Europe in this first period of the year, we are seeing again a very high volatility. And in the last period, with the closure of the (inaudible), of course, we have increased the spread related to the difference from diesel and the brent that are arising more or less as during the first phase of the war of Russia-Ukraine. It means a very high impact on the margin, on the traditional refining.

關於今年第一階段歐洲的煉油情況，我們再次看到非常高的波動性。當然，在最後一個時期，隨著（聽不清楚）的關閉，我們增加了與柴油和布蘭特原油之間的差異有關的價差，這些差價或多或少與俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭的第一階段一樣。 。這意味著對傳統精煉的利潤率產生非常大的影響。

Of course, what we're expecting in this year is that this volatility will continue, and probably, we could gain to this for some months waiting for the driving season, when we will see the increase also of the market of gasoline. The results are quite good.

當然，我們預計今年這種波動將持續下去，並且可能，我們可能會在等待駕駛季節的幾個月內獲得這種波動，屆時我們將看到汽油市場的成長。結果相當不錯。

Notwithstanding this, we will continue our strategy for the middle long-term because the traditional refining in Europe could not be very profitable in the mid or long term. For this reason, we are continuing to -- in the program of evolution transformation with the traditional refining and bio-refinery, maintaining the Middle East refining system that is less volatile, more stable in the profit.

儘管如此，我們仍將繼續我們的中長期策略，因為歐洲的傳統煉油從中長期來看利潤並不高。為此，我們正在繼續——在與傳統煉油和生物煉油的演進改造方案中，保持中東煉油體系波動較小、利潤更加穩定。

The next question is from Lydia Rainforth of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lydia Rainforth。

Two, please. Firstly, just in terms of the upstream, and (inaudible) fast track start that's coming onstream, the Neptune acquisition coming into the portfolio. How do you think about the margin per barrel evolving as we go forward? I'm assuming that actually, we should see that as incremental to it.

請兩位。首先，就上游而言，以及即將投產的（聽不清楚）快速通道啟動，海王星收購進入了投資組合。隨著我們的發展，您如何看待每桶利潤的變化？我認為實際上，我們應該將其視為增量。

And then secondly, I appreciate it if you say, you don't want to answer this question, but just around the conversations that the government is looking to sell part of the stake in Eni, would you kind of think about when you're thinking about the buyback for 2024, whether any would want to be involved in at least offsetting some of that impact in terms of the market?

其次，如果你說你不想回答這個問題，我很感激，但就政府正在尋求出售埃尼的部分股權的對話而言，你是否會考慮一下當你考慮到2024 年的回購，是否有人願意參與至少抵銷部分市場影響？

Okay. So the first question, maybe I gave some first answer, then I don't know if Guido want to add something.

好的。所以第一個問題，也許我先給了一些答案，然後我不知道Guido是否想補充一些東西。

Clearly, when we talk about the margin upstream, we have to go back to the fundamentals, that are at the cost, because we cannot do anything on the price cost. So we have to -- you must have a very low exploration cost, you must have a very low operating cost and a very low and very low development cost.

顯然，當我們談論上游利潤時，我們必須回到基本面，即成本，因為我們對價格成本無能為力。所以我們必須——你必須有非常低的勘探成本，你必須有非常低的營運成本和非常低的開發成本。

So our cost in terms of exploration this year was approximately $1 per barrel discovered. We had a very exceptional year. We discovered a lot of our resources, and that is the base. If you have to buy something like that, if you have to buy in a derisked exploration, you have to spend much more. You have to spend around between $5, $6 or up to $10 per barrel.

因此，我們今年的勘探成本約為每桶發現 1 美元。我們度過了非常不平凡的一年。我們發現了很多資源，這就是基礎。如果你必須購買類似的東西，如果你必須在無風險的探索中購買，你必須花更多的錢。每桶您必須花費約 5 美元、6 美元或最多 10 美元。

Then the other operating costs. Our operating costs remain in the lower side of the industry, about $6 per barrel, and the development cost is ranging between $9 and $10. Why? Because it's organic. It's also following our strategy. We are -- we develop a near field across to existing facilities. So that means they -- we're below.

然後是其他營運成本。我們的營運成本仍處於行業較低水平，約為每桶 6 美元，開發成本在 9 至 10 美元之間。為什麼？因為它是有機的。它也遵循我們的策略。我們正在開發一個跨越現有設施的近場。所以這意味著他們——我們在下面。

And that is also for the acquisition we made. There, we are well below (inaudible) cost, well below $18, $17 per barrel. So that's out the margin. And that's also the reason why the cash neutrality or the breakeven of our stream is very good.

這也是我們進行的收購的原因。在那裡，我們的成本遠低於（聽不清楚），遠低於每桶 18、17 美元。所以這超出了邊際。這也是我們流的現金中性或損益平衡非常好的原因。

Clearly, when we make an acquisition, normally, we are organic, but we work also through acquisition when we have big synergies. We try to replicate and check and due diligence that the asset we acquired are in line with our cost, and we have not diluted our cost.

顯然，當我們進行收購時，通常我們是有機的，但當我們擁有巨大的協同效應時，我們也會透過收購進行工作。我們嘗試複製、檢查和盡職調查，確保我們收購的資產與我們的成本相符，並且我們沒有攤薄我們的成本。

The second one, on the buyback, Francesco, Guido, you want to add something or it's okay?

第二個，關於回購，Francesco、Guido，你們想加點東西還是可以？

About just the time to market, the return on our projects. The quality, as Claudio said, of our portfolio, but also our distinctive phase and fast-track approach improves a lot the return on the project because of the very short time to market.

關於上市時間，我們專案的回報。正如克勞迪奧所說，我們的產品組合的品質以及我們獨特的階段和快速通道方法大大提高了專案的回報，因為上市時間很短。

On the buyback, generally speaking about the distribution. You have seen that in the -- we announced it last year, the distribution policy between 25% to 30%. Actually, we designed a distribution that was at 30% on the basis of the assumption of the cash flow we planned at the beginning of the year. And actually, we are working now in the range of 32%, 33% of overall distribution yield. The buyback plan is substantially almost completed. We have accelerated in the last part of last year.

說到回購，一般來說就是分配。你已經看到，我們去年宣布了 25% 到 30% 之間的分配政策。實際上，我們根據年初計畫的現金流假設，設計了30%的分配。事實上，我們現在的工作範圍是整體分配收益率的 32% 到 33%。回購計劃已基本完成。我們在去年下半年加速了。

So we proved to the market that we are flexible and positively flexible towards this metric. Clearly, any other distribution guidance will be disclosed in the next Capital Market Day, in the middle of March with all the plan related both on the dividend and the buyback.

因此，我們向市場證明，我們對這項指標是靈活的，而且是積極且靈活的。顯然，任何其他分配指導將在下一個資本市場日（三月中旬）披露，所有計劃均與股息和回購相關。

The next question is from Bertrand Hodee of Kepler Cheuvreux.

下一個問題來自 Kepler Cheuvreux 的 Bertrand Hodee。

Yes. I have 2, if I may. I understand you will give us a full update on 14th of March with a new strategic plan on your medium-term targets. I'm sorry to be a bit impatient, but is there any element of 2024 guidance you would like to share with us at this stage?

是的。如果可以的話，我有 2 個。據我所知，您將在 3 月 14 日向我們提供有關中期目標的新策略計劃的完整更新資訊。很抱歉我有點不耐煩，但您現階段有什麼 2024 年指導意見想與我們分享嗎？

The second question is on UAE LNG opportunity. The UAE is likely to launch close to 10 million tonnes of LNG this year, sanctioning the Ruwais LNG project. Would you be keen on participating? Meaning, I remember that when Qatar launched the extension, you were quite vocal you would like to participate. Do you have the same appetite to potentially take a stake or be an off-taker on Abu Dhabi LNG project?

第二個問題是關於阿聯酋液化天然氣的機會。阿聯酋今年可能推出近1,000萬噸液化天然氣，批准魯韋斯液化天然氣計畫。你會熱衷參與嗎？意思是，我記得當卡達啟動延期時，您非常直言不諱地希望參與。您是否也有同樣的興趣入股或成為阿布達比液化天然氣計畫的承購者？

So on the first question, what we can say just for the sake of clarity is about CapEx. What we want really to do is to be very focused on CapEx on our expenditure. One means is M&A, but the other is to be efficient in CapEx. So reduce CapEx, but keeping, in any case, the same level of profitability and returns on our operations. So that is an exercise on which we are working a lot. And so CapEx is -- so the gross CapEx will remain below EUR 9 billion, I can say. Also if my people are not very happy. But that will be -- and then net CapEx, much lower. That's what I can say.

因此，對於第一個問題，為了清楚起見，我們可以說的是資本支出。我們真正想做的是非常關注我們支出的資本支出。一種手段是併購，另一種手段是提高資本支出效率。因此，減少資本支出，但無論如何，保持我們運營的相同水平的盈利能力和回報。因此，這是我們正在做大量工作的一項工作。我可以說，資本支出總額將維持在 90 億歐元以下。另外，如果我的人民不太高興。但這將會大大降低，然後淨資本支出就會低得多。這就是我能說的。

For Abu Dhabi, we are working on Abu Dhabi, work very well with unlocking the -- we are interested. We are also developing gas and producing associated gas, but we are going to develop gas, (inaudible).

對於阿布達比，我們正在阿布達比工作，在解鎖方面工作得很好——我們很感興趣。我們也在開發天然氣並生產伴生氣，但我們將開發天然氣（聽不清楚）。

So it's something that we can have a look, but I cannot tell you anything now. If I had to say something, I would say to Abu Dhabi and ADNOC and then to you.

所以我們可以看看，但我現在不能告訴你任何事情。如果我必須說些什麼，我會對阿布達比和阿布達比國家石油公司說，然後對你們說。

The next question is from Matt Lofting of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的馬特·洛夫廷（Matt Lofting）。

Congratulations on strong execution through 2023. Two quick ones, if I could, please. First, exploration has clearly been a significant value lever for the company through recent history. I think you talked about Egypt earlier. Could you just talk about sort of 2024 more broadly over the next sort of 6 to 12 months? Any sort of key exploration opportunities that you have lined up within the portfolio? And perhaps, sort of next steps around Indonesia as well?

恭喜 2023 年的強勁執行力。如果可以的話，請快速提供兩個。首先，從最近的歷史來看，勘探顯然一直是該公司的重要價值槓桿。我想你之前談過埃及。您能否更廣泛地談論 2024 年接下來 6 到 12 個月的情況？您在投資組合中列出了哪些關鍵的探索機會？也許，印尼的下一步行動也是如此？

And then secondly, just on GGP, the arbitration proceeds were a key component of the fourth quarter. Obviously, that's a lumpy component within the business. Can you just talk about how we should view that on a 3-cycle basis? And any further arbitration upside that you see over the medium term?

其次，就 GGP 而言，仲裁收益是第四季的關鍵組成部分。顯然，這是業務中的一個不穩定的組成部分。您能談談我們應該如何看待三個週期的問題嗎？從中期來看，您認為仲裁還有哪些進一步的好處？

The first question about arbitration and future development is Guido or Aldo that is now in charge of exploration cycle. One is Cristian.

關於仲裁和未來發展的第一個問題是現在負責勘探週期的Guido或Aldo。其中之一是克里斯蒂安.

On exploration, I think you said that it's one of the levers of the value creation in our company. The results this year were outstanding as also in the past year, and particularly in Indonesia. We have some impact wells, high-impact wells ongoing at the moment. And of course, the result of those will happen soon.

關於探索，我想你說過這是我們公司價值創造的槓桿之一。今年的業績與去年一樣出色，尤其是在印尼。我們目前有一些影響井、高影響井正在進行中。當然，這些結果很快就會發生。

In 2024, we will continue our near-field ILX exploration improvement basin, that proved to be very effective and successful. Indonesia is one of the key area, Geng North and the acquisition of the acreage around the discovery prove that, that play as well as other plays that we drilled in the past year can deliver significant resources.

2024年，我們將繼續進行近場ILX勘探改進盆地，事實證明這是非常有效且成功的。印尼是關鍵區域之一，Geng North 和對該發現周圍區域的收購證明，該區域以及我們在過去一年鑽探的其他區域可以提供大量資源。

When we made the discovery in Geng, we outlined also the potential of the area, which is in the region of the [tenths] of the Tcf, and as you may have appreciated, we have already anticipated that we will build a second hub in the north area. And that, together with the hub at Jan Creek we have in the South, with almost 750 million [skrugard] per day, this 2 hub will bring a production, which is approximately close to the 2 billion of standard cubic feet per day in the forthcoming year, which will be -- which will have extended plateau because of the number of prospects that are around that.

當我們在耿發現這一點時，我們還概述了該地區的潛力，該地區位於 Tcf 的[十分之一]區域，正如您可能已經意識到的，我們已經預計我們將在北部地區。加上我們在南部的 Jan Creek 中心，每天有近 7.5 億[skrugard]，這兩個中心將帶來的產量大約接近南部地區每天 20 億標準立方英尺。即將到來的一年，由於圍繞該平台的前景數量，平台期將會延長。

Other important areas, of course, are legacy areas like Egypt and others where we had our discovery. Norway also is an area where we have a significant acreage in exploration. But of course, the near-field nature of our discovery will also make us -- enable us to bring them quickly onstream.

當然，其他重要地區是埃及等遺留地區以及我們發現的其他地區。挪威也是我們擁有大量勘探面積的地區。當然，我們的發現的近場性質也將使我們能夠快速地將它們投入使用。

Quickly onstream and give us the possibility to go through, as Francesco say, through dual exploration. So it's a part of the plan because we discovered a lot, we own between [80% and 100%] of all these discoveries also with what we acquired. So that is another important upside that we can have in our next 4-year plan.

正如弗朗西斯科所說，快速投入使我們有可能透過雙重探索。所以這是計劃的一部分，因為我們發現了很多，我們擁有所有這些發現的[80%到100%]以及我們所獲得的東西。這是我們在下一個四年計畫中可以實現的另一個重要優勢。

So now we have Cristian, and then one more, and then we can finish.

現在我們有了克里斯蒂安，然後還有一個，然後我們就可以結束了。

So in terms of renegotiation, as you can imagine, I mean, these are normal feature of the midstream business. So we have ongoing renegotiation in our portfolio with our contracts. We tend to clearly settle those amicably. But from time to time, it happens that we had to resort to arbitrational tribunal in order to seek a conclusion of that discussion.

因此，就重新談判而言，正如您可以想像的那樣，我的意思是，這些是中游業務的正常特徵。因此，我們正在就我們的投資組合與合約進行持續的重新談判。我們傾向於友好地明確解決這些問題。但時不時地，我們不得不訴諸仲裁庭來尋求討論的結論。

So what I can tell you is that in 2024, we don't expect any outcome from any arbitration.

所以我可以告訴你的是，到2024年，我們預計不會有任何仲裁結果。

The next question is from Massimo Bonisoli of Equita.

下一個問題來自 Equita 的 Massimo Bonisoli。

Two quick set of questions. The first on the chemical business. I'd like to know how much of the negative performance of Versalis in Q4 is coming from the consolidation of Novamont? And given the still weak trading condition in Q1 2024 for chemical margin, is it reasonable to expect again a triple-digit loss for Q1 2024?

兩組快速問題。第一個是化學業務。我想知道Versalis第四季的負面業績有多少是來自Novamont的整合？鑑於 2024 年第一季化學品保證金的交易狀況仍然疲軟，預計 2024 年第一季再次出現三位數的虧損是否合理？

And then a question on the refining business in Italy, following the change in ownership of (inaudible) and now on (inaudible), together with the stop of traditional activity in Livorno, could you share your thoughts on the supply of fuel on domestic market? And if this may represent an opportunity for Eni?

然後是關於義大利煉油業務的問題，隨著（聽不清楚）和現在（聽不清楚）所有權的變化，以及利沃諾傳統活動的停止，您能否分享一下您對國內市場燃料供應的想法？這是否對埃尼來說是一個機會？

Okay. Thanks for the question. On the chemical side, no amount has been consolidated just for a quarter. So the impact of the fourth quarter is very minor and is not really represented because you know every time that you're an acquisition, you have some transaction point of view. So it's there, really not representative of the performance in one quarter.

好的。謝謝你的提問。在化學品方面，僅一個季度就沒有合併任何金額。因此，第四季度的影響非常小，並且沒有真正體現出來，因為你知道每次收購時，你都會有一些交易觀點。所以它確實不能代表一個季度的表現。

About outlook for Q1, we don't give you yet the outlook. But of course, it's not the 3 digit, yes.

關於第一季的前景，我們尚未向您提供前景。但當然，這不是 3 位數，是的。

Now about the refining in Italy, of course.

當然，現在談談義大利的精煉。

Refining in Italy, I ask Pino if he's still there?

在義大利煉油，我問皮諾還在嗎？

Yes. Yes, of course.

是的。是的當然。

Okay. You good, Pino. Okay, you can.

好的。你很好，皮諾。好吧，你可以。

Okay. No, the refining in Italy. In the refining, we are seeing a lot of change in the last period. And 2 big refineries are moving to the trader ownership. What does it mean? It's that there is an interest -- still an interest in the refining system in Italy. But at the same time, we have to consider that, in any case, the profitability of the refining -- the traditional refining system in Italy asset for the Europe is affected by the very high cost of energy, very high cost of CO2, very low size of the plant. So it's very, very difficult to maintain in the long term, the profitability.

好的。不，是在義大利提煉。在精煉過程中，我們看到上一個時期發生了許多變化。兩家大型煉油廠正在轉向貿易商所有權。這是什麼意思？而是人們對義大利的煉油系統有興趣——仍然有興趣。但同時，我們必須考慮到，無論如何，煉油的獲利能力——義大利資產的歐洲傳統煉油系統受到非常高的能源成本、非常高的二氧化碳成本、非常高的成本的影響。工廠規模小。因此，從長遠來看，維持獲利能力是非常非常困難的。

The effect of the transformation of Livorno refinery bio-refinery help to balance also the demand and offer in a market, that is naturally declining in the mid long term. So what we expect to see in Italy is that in our system, more balance between production in the refining and consumption in the marketing, in the retail system and wholesale system. We could gain an advantage to reduce the volatility because the volatility is when you have to offer the product on the cargo market.

利沃諾煉油廠生物煉油廠轉型的效果也有助於平衡中長期自然下降的市場供需。因此，我們期望在義大利看到的是，在我們的系統中，煉油生產與行銷消費、零售系統和批發系統之間更加平衡。我們可以在減少波動性方面獲得優勢，因為波動性是指您必須在貨運市場上提供產品的情況。

And the transformation of the traditional refinery, in bio-refinery helped 2 times. First, because you enter in a new business, it's very, very profitable, as we have seen before. Second, you rebalance demand and offer in the traditional refining system.

而傳統煉油廠的改造，在生物煉油廠的幫助下達到了2倍。首先，因為你進入了一項新業務，它的利潤非常非常高，正如我們之前所看到的。其次，重新平衡傳統煉油系統中的需求和供給。

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. Thank you.

女士們先生們，這是最後一個問題。謝謝。

Thank you. Thank you very much. Goodbye.

謝謝。非常感謝。再見。