埃尼石油 (E) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Eni's 2023 Third Quarter Results Conference Call, hosted by Mr. Francesco Gattei, Chief Financial Officer. (Operator Instructions) I am now handing you over to your host to begin today's conference.

女士們先生們下午好，歡迎參加由財務長 Francesco Gattei 先生主持的埃尼 2023 年第三季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在將您交給主持人，開始今天的會議。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Eni's Third Quarter and 9 Month 2023 Results Conference call. Energy markets remained volatile, but at Eni our focus is on delivering results in all scenarios, while at the same time advancing our longer-term strategy. Q3 has seen as successfully achieving both of these things. Before digging deeper into the numbers, let me emphasize the key strategic accomplishment for the quarter. We are evolving and strengthening core business, such as E&P and GGP for the challenge of transitioning energy markets, and taking opportunity to build the new relevant businesses such as Plenitude, Enilive, Biochemical and CCUS. In upstream, in August, we began production of Baleine offshore Ivoire Coast less than 2 years after discovery, further evidence of the efficient integration of world-class exploration with a development strategy focusing on time to market and value maximization.

下午好，歡迎參加埃尼 2023 年第三季和 9 個月業績電話會議。能源市場仍然波動，但在埃尼，我們的重點是在所有情況下取得成果，同時推動我們的長期策略。第三季被認為成功實現了這兩件事。在深入研究這些數字之前，讓我先強調一下本季的關鍵策略成就。我們正在發展和強化E&P和GGP等核心業務，以應對能源市場轉型的挑戰，並抓住機會建立新的相關業務，如Plenitude、Enilive、Biochemical和CCUS。在上游，8月份，我們在科特迪瓦海岸的Baleine近海發現不到兩年後就開始生產，這進一步證明了世界級勘探與專注於上市時間和價值最大化的開發策略的有效整合。

Production from Baleine is a contributor to this quarter year-on-year growth and its phases ramp-up is an important element in the 3%, 4% growth in our current 4-year plan. This approach continues to deliver. We are, therefore, delighted to significantly exceed our full year target of 700 million BOE of discovered resources. The recently announced Geng North discovery offshore Indonesia is assessed by third-party provider as the largest in the industry in 2023. Indeed, along with Nargis announced earlier this year, Eni currently has 2 of the top 5. I will revisit Geng in more detail later.

Baleine 的產量是本季年成長的貢獻者，其階段性成長是我們目前 4 年計畫 3%、4% 成長的重要因素。這種方法繼續發揮作用。因此，我們很高興大大超過了 7 億桶油當量的全年已發現資源目標。最近宣布的印尼近海Geng North 發現被第三方提供者評估為2023 年業內最大的發現。事實上，與今年稍早宣布的Nargis 一起，埃尼目前佔據了前5 名中的2 個。我將更詳細回顧Geng之後。

Meanwhile, we are also upgrading our upstream portfolio. In September, we announced the sale of our Nigerian onshore production company, now following the divestment of mature Congos asset earlier. At the same time, we have been advancing our agreed purchase of Neptune, a portfolio that represents an exceptional fit for us. Closing of Neptune remains on track for Q1 2024. Geng and Neptune will be important contributor to the shift in balance of our upstream portfolio towards gas. Obtaining full value of our equity production is, of course, critical and so we were pleased in the past few days to announce new LNG supply agreement with Congo, Qatar and Indonesia. We have seen really positive progress as we work to establish a leading CCUS position. Our Bacton UAE project was awarded a CO2 appraisal and storage license by the U.K. government, while we also agreed Heads of Terms' with the U.K. for the world's first asset-based regulator CCS business model for our operated HyNet project.

同時，我們也在升級我們的上游產品組合。九月份，我們宣佈出售尼日利亞陸上生產公司，此前我們已剝離成熟的剛果資產。同時，我們一直在推動對 Neptune 的收購，該投資組合非常適合我們。 Neptune 的關閉仍有望在 2024 年第一季完成。Geng 和 Neptune 將成為我們上游投資組合平衡轉向天然氣的重要貢獻者。當然，獲得我們股權生產的全部價值至關重要，因此我們在過去幾天很高興地宣布與剛果、卡達和印尼達成新的液化天然氣供應協議。在我們努力建立 CCUS 領先地位的過程中，我們看到了真正積極的進展。我們的 Bacton UAE 專案獲得了英國政府頒發的二氧化碳評估和封存許可證，同時我們也與英國就我們營運的 HyNet 專案的全球首個基於資產的監管機構 CCS 業務模式達成了協議。

In Energy evolution, we are also very active. Our team met with many of you in September to update on our unique biorefining agri-hub strategy. We were also pleased to confirm an agreement to explore the development operation of our new biorefinery in South Korea supporting the strong global growth target in that business.

在能源進化方面，我們也非常活躍。我們的團隊在 9 月與你們中的許多人會面，更新我們獨特的生物精煉農業中心策略。我們也很高興地確認了一項協議，探索我們在韓國的新生物精煉廠的開發運營，以支持該業務強勁的全球成長目標。

Moreover, this month, we have closed the purchase of Novamont, advancing Versalis progress in specializing its portfolio towards the growing market of biochemical and bioplastics.

此外，本月，我們完成了對 Novamont 的收購，推動 Versalis 在將其產品組合專門針對不斷增長的生化和生物塑料市場方面取得進展。

And now to group results. Strong segmental EBIT from each of our main businesses resulted in over EUR 3 billion group EBIT for the quarter, driven by E&P and EUR 11 billion over the 9 months. Including associates, the proforma EBIT of the company in the quarter was EUR 4 billion and EUR 14 billion over the 9 months with a tax rate in the mid 40%, consistent with the oil price business performance and asset contribution. Net income for the quarter was EUR 1.8 billion, resulting in a 9-month net income of EUR 6.6 billion. We continue to have an excellent cash conversion, underlying 3/4 cash flow from operation of EUR 3.4 billion and EUR 12.9 billion for the 9 months stand out at the top of our historical performance with an organic free cash flow to date of around EUR 6.2 billion, which more than covers our 2023 distribution.

現在將結果分組。在勘探與生產和過去 9 個月 110 億歐元的推動下，我們每項主要業務的強勁部門息稅前利潤導致本季度集團息稅前利潤超過 30 億歐元。包括聯營公司在內，該公司本季的預計息稅前利潤為 40 億歐元，過去 9 個月為 140 億歐元，稅率為 40% 左右，與油價業務表現和資產貢獻一致。本季淨利為 18 億歐元，9 個月淨利為 66 億歐元。我們繼續保持出色的現金轉換，過去 9 個月的營運基礎 3/4 現金流分別為 34 億歐元和 129 億歐元，迄今為止的有機自由現金流約為 6.2 歐元，在我們歷史業績中名列前茅。十億，這超過了我們2023 年的分配。

We accelerated the share buyback this quarter, repurchasing EUR 600 million, meaning we have repurchased over 2% of our share in the year to end September, and our buyback will continue at accelerated pace in the fourth quarter. Sharing issues are down almost 6% year-on-year. September also saw the first payment of the EUR 0.94 quarterly dividend.

本季我們加速了股票回購，回購了 6 億歐元，這意味著截至 9 月底的一年中我們已經回購了超過 2% 的股票，第四季我們的回購將繼續加速。共享問題年減近 6%。 9 月也首次支付了 0.94 歐元的季度股息。

As anticipated, CapEx of EUR 1.9 billion this quarter reflects lower spend than the first half. We have also made the second payment in respect of the PBF joint venture in this quarter. And even as we invest organically and into portfolio and buy back shares, the balance sheet remains in exceptionally good shape with leverage (inaudible) change from the second quarter at 15% and only up modestly over the last year.

正如預期的那樣，本季資本支出為 19 億歐元，反映出支出低於上半年。本季我們也支付了PBF合資企業的第二筆款項。即使我們進行有機投資、投資組合併回購股票，資產負債表仍保持異常良好的狀態，槓桿率（聽不清楚）從第二季度開始變化為 15%，僅比去年略有上升。

Let's now take a look at the business segment performance quarter. Taking natural resources first. Upstream production averaged 1.635 million barrels per day, up 4% year-on-year, with the start-up of Baleine, as I noted, but also higher production in Algeria, ramp-up in Mexico, Mozambique, recovery in Kazakhstan after last year's unplanned outages. Higher production and higher oil prices helped push EBIT to EUR 2.6 billion, up 26% quarter-on-quarter and with our upstream satellites where we generated EUR 3.4 billion of adjusted EBIT.

現在讓我們來看看業務部門季度業績。以自然資源為先。正如我所指出的，上游產量平均為163.5 萬桶/日，同比增長4%，正如我所指出的，隨著Baleine 的啟動，阿爾及利亞的產量也有所增加，墨西哥、莫桑比克的產量增加，哈薩克斯坦的產量也在去年之後有所恢復。年的計劃外停電。更高的產量和更高的油價有助於將息稅前利潤推至 26 億歐元，環比增長 26%，而我們的上游衛星產生了 34 億歐元的調整後息稅前利潤。

GGP had a softer quarter as we said it would. The second half of the year is benefiting from less available portfolio flexibility and (inaudible) fewer optimization opportunity as spreads narrowed.

正如我們所說，GGP 的季度表現較為疲軟。隨著利差收窄，可用的投資組合靈活性減少以及（聽不清楚）優化機會減少，下半年將受益。

As promised, I want to focus further on our recently announced Geng North discovery in the Kutei Basin offshore Indonesia. It is worth refreshing on the main characteristic of our exploration strategy because Geng North is such a good example we are focused on gas. We seek a large equity share that allows us to have greater control of the project and the option of early valorization through our dual exploration strategy. We explore close to existing infrastructure, which benefits time to market and reduce the development cost and enhancing value. Our distinctive power-in house development process help us optimize the time to market. And as a result, not only Eni is consistently the leading global explorer in multiple basin among our peers, but also deliver the best full-cycle returns.

正如所承諾的，我想進一步關注我們最近宣布的在印尼近海 Kutei 盆地的 Geng North 發現。我們勘探策略的主要特點值得刷新，因為耿北是我們專注於天然氣的一個很好的例子。我們尋求大量股權，使我們能夠更好地控制該項目，並透過我們的雙重勘探策略選擇早期增值。我們探索靠近現有基礎設施的地方，這有利於縮短上市時間、降低開發成本並提高價值。我們獨特的內部電源開發流程幫助我們優化上市時間。因此，埃尼不僅在多個盆地的全球勘探公司中始終處於領先地位，而且還實現了最佳的全週期回報。

In terms of Geng specifically, it is a very significant discovery with 5 tcf of gas and 400 million barrels of condensate in place, equivalent to around a recoverable volume of 800 million barrels of oil equivalent is the industry larger discovery year-to-date. While productivity confirmed by the DST is excellent. After completing the Neptune purchase, Eni will have an 88% participation. Development of a field of this scale will require some new infrastructure, including a floating production unit. But this can now be optimized as a new app development and include reserves for an additional 5 tcf on our recently acquired IDD acreage. Furthermore, the proximity to infrastructure the existing Bontang LNG plant, which has available capacity makes development highly efficient and provides higher value for the gas.

具體就 Geng 而言，這是一個非常重大的發現，擁有 5 tcf 天然氣和 4 億桶凝析油，相當於可採儲量約 8 億桶油當量，是今年迄今為止業界最大的發現。而 DST 證實的生產力非常出色。完成海王星收購後，埃尼將擁有88%的參與權。開發如此規模的油田將需要一些新的基礎設施，包括浮動生產裝置。但現在可以將其優化為新的應用程式開發，並包括在我們最近收購的 IDD 土地上額外 5 tcf 的儲備。此外，現有的 Bontang 液化天然氣工廠靠近基礎設施，具有可用產能，使得開發效率很高，並為天然氣提供更高的價值。

Last but not least, it's also worth noting the discovery, there is further more TTCF exploration potential in the area. So by virtue of scale participation level, efficiency of development, access to market and cycle time, Geng is a very meaningful addition to Eni future upstream project pipeline.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這項發現也值得注意，該地區還有更多的 TTCF 勘探潛力。因此，憑藉著規模參與程度、開發效率、市場進入和週期時間，耿是埃尼未來上游專案管道中非常有意義的補充。

And now turning to energy evolution. A stronger SERM refining margin and higher refining availability, as we anticipated on our second quarter call have combined for a good quarter from traditional refining with EBIT of EUR 328 million, up Versus sell-offs at Q2, down somewhat year-on-year on scenario effect, not fully reflected in the SERM. Similarly, the strengthening scenario plus better utilization at Venice and Gela and the seasonally normal improvement in marketing have driven a solid EUR 270 million EBIT results from Enilive. We were also pleased to have booked our first contribution of positive net income from our biorefinery joint venture with PBF at the Chalmette refinery Louisiana, well in advance of our original plan.

現在轉向能源進化。正如我們在第二季電話會議中所預期的那樣，SERM 煉油利潤率更高，煉油可用性更高，這使得傳統煉油季度表現良好，息稅前利潤為3.28 億歐元，與第二季度的拋售相比，年比有所下降。情境效應，並沒有完全體現在SERM中。同樣，威尼斯和傑拉的強勁前景加上利用率的提高以及行銷的季節性正常改善推動了 Enilive 實現 2.7 億歐元的穩定息稅前利潤。我們也很高興地從我們與 PBF 位於路易斯安那州查爾梅特煉油廠的生物煉油合資企業中獲得了第一筆正淨利潤，這比我們最初的計劃提前了很多。

And as a reminder, income from investment in the downstream is primarily our stake in the Adnoc refinery. Versalis continued to be impacted by weak demand, energy cost and intense competition in the chemical sector. This emphasized the importance of the recently completed Novamont acquisition with our intention to shift towards specialized and sustainable chemistry activities. It is now important to say that Plenitude even as energy markets continue to be so challenging is meeting or even exceeding all its operational and financial targets confirming the strength of our unique and integrated business model. EBIT for Plenitude for the quarter was EUR 180 million, equivalent to EUR 280 million of EBITDA.

提醒一下，下游投資的收入主要是我們在阿布達比國家石油公司煉油廠的股份。 Versalis 繼續受到需求疲軟、能源成本和化學產業激烈競爭的影響。這強調了最近完成的 Novamont 收購的重要性，我們打算轉向專業化和永續的化學活動。現在重要的是，儘管能源市場仍然充滿挑戰，但 Plenitude 仍達到甚至超過了其所有營運和財務目標，這證實了我們獨特的綜合業務模式的實力。 Plenitude 本季的息稅前利潤為 1.8 億歐元，相當於 EBITDA 2.8 億歐元。

Along with Power, EBIT of EUR 290 million was 26% up year-on-year despite the significant results from open market Power sales in 2022. With a strong contribution from retail and a significant increase in renewable Power sold, we now expect planning to 2023 EBITDA to be 30% higher than the original guidance. Start-up of offshore wind generation at Dogger Bank and photovoltaic in Kazakhstan, emphasized the operational momentum, while the deal agreed by GreenIT, Plenitude joint venture with CDP to develop 4 new photovoltaic project in Italy adds to medium-term progress also.

儘管2022 年公開市場電力銷售取得了顯著成果，但與電力一起，息稅前利潤(EBIT) 達到2.9 億歐元，同比增長26%。由於零售業的強勁貢獻以及可再生能源銷售量的顯著增加，我們現在預計計劃2023 年 EBITDA 將比原始指導值高出 30%。 Dogger Bank 離岸風力發電和哈薩克光伏發電的啟動強調了營運勢頭，而 GreenIT、Plenitude 合資企業與 CDP 達成的在義大利開發 4 個新光伏項目的協議也增加了中期進展。

This distinct growth profile will continue to be a future of Plenitude as we double 2023 EBITDA by 2026 reaching 7 gigawatts of renewable capacity as well as increasing customers to over 11 million and charging points to over 30,000 by the same date. That leads me to update guidance for 2023. We have now had the full year guidance for oil and gas production to between 1.64 million to 1.66 million barrels of oil equivalent, which at the midpoint, implies 2.4% growth year-on-year and a 4 quarter exit rate of close to 5% growth year-on-year.

這種獨特的成長模式將繼續成為Plenitude 的未來，因為我們在2026 年將2023 年EBITDA 翻一番，達到7 吉瓦的可再生能源容量，並將客戶數量增加到超過1,100 萬，充電點增加到超過30,000 個。這促使我更新 2023 年的指導意見。我們現在的全年石油和天然氣產量指引為 164 萬至 166 萬桶石油當量，這意味著同比增長 2.4%， 4季度退出率同比增長接近5%。

We can confirm our GGP guidance in the range of EUR 2.73 billion (sic) [EUR 2.7 billion - EUR 3 billion], we are raising proforma adjusted downstream EBIT to EUR 1 billion from EUR 0.8 billion, reflecting the stronger third quarter and a better outlook for the last quarter in both traditional biorefining. This is part offset by continued challenging conditions faced by Versalis.

我們可以確認我們的GGP 指引在27.3 億歐元（原文如此）[27 億歐元- 30 億歐元]範圍內，我們將備考調整後的下游息稅前利潤從8 億歐元提高到10 億歐元，反映出第三季的強勁表現和更好的業績傳統生物精煉最後一個季度的展望。這在一定程度上被 Versalis 面臨的持續挑戰所抵消。

Within downstream, Enilive proforma EBITDA is raised to EUR 1 billion from guidance of more than EUR 0.9 billion previously. As we have lighted, we are also raising our full year guidance for Plenitude EBITDA to around EUR 0.9 billion.

在下游，Enilive 預計 EBITDA 從先前超過 9 億歐元的指引值提高至 10 億歐元。正如我們所指出的，我們也將 Plenitude EBITDA 的全年指引提高至 9 億歐元左右。

With this change, we now expect replacement cost CFFO to be around EUR 16.5 billion, up from EUR 15.5 billion [- EUR 16 billion] previously and the EBIT to be around EUR 14 billion, EUR 2 billion higher than our midyear view. We are on track to deliver all our original target despite weaker scenario conditioned than planned. With business outperformance across Eni, delivering around EUR 2.6 billion of additional underlying EBIT.

透過這項變化，我們現在預計CFFO 重置成本約為165 億歐元，高於先前的155 億歐元[- 160 億歐元]，息稅前利潤約為140 億歐元，比我們年中的預期高出20 億歐元。儘管情況比計劃的要弱，但我們仍有望實現所有最初的目標。埃尼集團的業務表現出色，帶來約 26 億歐元的額外基本息稅前利潤。

Our planned buyback remains at EUR 2.2 billion and while we continue to expect to complete by April 2024, we are also accelerating this pace in the month of 2023. With our dividend, EUR 0.94 per share for 2023, our distribution is equivalent to 33% of expected cash flow from operation. We expect CapEx about EUR 9 billion, over 5% lower than our initial plan with a precise figure determined by timing around the project activity. This all means we continue to expect leverage in the 10%, 20% range.

我們的計畫回購金額仍為22 億歐元，雖然我們繼續預計在2024 年4 月之前完成，但我們也在2023 年加快這一步伐。考慮到2023 年的股息為每股0.94 歐元，我們的分配相當於33%預期經營現金流量。我們預計資本支出約為 90 億歐元，比我們最初的計劃低 5% 以上，具體數字由專案活動的時間表決定。這一切都意味著我們繼續預期槓桿率在 10%、20% 範圍內。

In conclusion, we continue to deliver excellent operating and financial results and strategic progress. We can reward investor to reinvest in the business for future value and maintain a resilient financial position in volatile times. Meanwhile, we are also transforming building on our strength and developing a new line of business as opportunity present themselves. This concludes my prepared remarks and together with Eni top management, I am ready to answer your questions.

總之，我們繼續取得出色的營運和財務表現以及策略進展。我們可以獎勵投資者對業務進行再投資以獲得未來價值，並在動盪時期保持有彈性的財務狀況。同時，我們也利用自身優勢進行轉型，並把握機會開發新的業務線。我準備好的發言到此結束，我準備好與埃尼高層一起回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions). The first question comes from Giacomo Romeo of Jefferies.

（操作員說明）。第一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的賈科莫·羅密歐 (Giacomo Romeo)。

First question is around your shares buyback program. Francesco, you speak to the fact that you have -- you are accelerating in Q4, the pace of the buyback at current pace indicates that you should reach around 2 billion by the end of the year. Just wanted to check when do you think that the EUR 2.2 billion will be completed? Is it going to be Q4 results in February and also, how should we think about how you will use the flexibility given by the EUR 3.5 billion mandate from the AGM in order to bridge the period when you finish EUR 2.2 billion and the next AGM in May.

第一個問題是關於您的股票回購計劃。 Francesco，您所說的事實是，您在第四季度正在加速，以目前的速度回購的步伐表明，到年底您應該達到 20 億左右。只是想了解一下您認為 22 億歐元何時能完成？是否會在 2 月公佈第四季度業績？此外，我們應該如何考慮如何利用年度股東大會 35 億歐元授權所提供的靈活性，以彌補完成 22 億歐元和下一次年度股東大會的時間段。可能。

The second question is on GGP. You left EBIT guidance unchanged. Year-to-date, you're basically EUR 100 million from the lower end of this. Just trying to understand where the cautious outlook is coming from here. Is it related to the increased tensions in the Middle East? Or is there any sort of -- do you have any visibility on potential negative impacts from contracting negotiations next year -- in the next quarter? Just if you can share some color there would be helpful.

第二個問題是關於GGP的。您保持息稅前利潤指引不變。今年迄今為止，您的收入基本上已經達到了 1 億歐元。只是想了解謹慎的前景從何而來。是否與中東局勢緊張有關？或者，您對明年合約談判的潛在負面影響是否有任何了解？在下個季度？如果你能分享一些顏色就會有幫助。

Thank you. I will reply to the share buyback, while I will leave the floor to Cristian Signoretto for the GGP guidance. About the share buyback. First of all, you know that we have, as you mentioned, currently, the EUR 2.2 billion as a target and the flexibility up to EUR 3.5 billion subject, clearly, to the improvement towards our cash flow from operation expectation. So that flexibility will be, let's say, optional in case we will see an improvement above the EUR 17 billion threshold that under the current, we have not, let's say, yet achieved.

謝謝。我將回覆股票回購，同時我將把發言權留給 Cristian Signoretto 以獲取 GGP 指導。關於股票回購。首先，正如您所提到的，我們目前的目標是 22 億歐元，靈活性高達 35 億歐元，顯然，這取決於我們經營預期現金流的改善。因此，如果我們看到超過 170 億歐元門檻的改善，那麼這種靈活性將是可選的，而在目前的情況下，我們尚未實現。

In the quarter, you mentioned that we'll close according to your estimate around the EUR 2 billion. I think that under the current estimate so far the past pace of EUR 60 million per week of buying back. This is a bit higher. So I would say that clearly, you will see in the coming weeks from the report that we published substantially at the beginning of each, the increase of the pace. The expectation is to accelerate the buyback. It means that instead of concluding that, within April, we will think to have an acceleration. I do not disclose what will be, but you will see the figure in the acquisition and the time that we will publish every week. Then now I leave to Cristian for more color.

在本季度，您提到我們將根據您的估計關閉約 20 億歐元。我認為，根據目前的估計，迄今為止每週回購的速度為 6,000 萬歐元。這個有點高了。因此，我要明確地說，在未來幾週內，您將從我們在每份報告開頭大幅發布的報告中看到步伐的加快。預期是加速回購。這意味著我們不會在四月內得出結論，而是認為會加速。我不會透露具體內容，但您會看到收購中的數字以及我們每週發布的時間。現在我留給克里斯蒂安更多的色彩。

Yes. So thank you. So the third quarter results were in line with expectations as guided in the last conference call. And the mild market actually guided us to that kind of guidance. When it comes to the fourth quarter and the range in the fourth quarter that we left unchanged, this is actually a result of the scenario uncertainties in terms of volatility, spreads, supply availability as well as expected outcome of an ongoing arbitration, which is going to be ruled in this -- going the next quarter.

是的。所以謝謝。因此，第三季業績符合上次電話會議的預期。溫和的市場實際上引導我們達到了這種指導。當談到第四季度以及我們保持不變的第四季度範圍時，這實際上是由於波動性、價差、供應可用性以及正在進行的仲裁的預期結果等方面的情景不確定性造成的。將在下個季度做出裁決。

The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria of RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Biraj Borkhataria。

The first one is on exploration. Very helpful slide that you put in today. Obviously, this is probably the way Eni has created the most of value over the last decade, and it's clearly a strength of the company. So I was just wondering how you're thinking about your exploration budget going forward and into the next couple of years. You see your U.S. peers buying upstream resource in quite a big way and clearly -- oil and gas demand are evolving. Do you think your exploration budget is appropriate as it currently stands? Or should you be doing more? and the second question is on Egypt.

第一個是探索。您今天放置的幻燈片非常有用。顯然，這可能是埃尼在過去十年中創造最多價值的方式，而這顯然是該公司的優勢。所以我只是想知道您如何考慮未來幾年的勘探預算。你會看到美國同行大量購買上游資源，石油和天然氣的需求正在不斷變化。您認為您目前的勘探預算合適嗎？或者你應該做得更多？第二個問題是關於埃及的。

You had a big position there. I just wanted to get some thoughts on the ground because LNG exports there have been minimal, which is normal for the summer, but also we're not seeing much in terms of exports for October. So I was wondering if you could comment on production levels or projects like we saw and the broader situation there? And then finally, just a quick one on the Indonesia discoveries. Is it fair to assume the target will be for these to feed Bontang and for LNG and I'm assuming there's capacity there for more exports, right?

你在那裡有很大的地位。我只是想了解一些實際情況，因為液化天然氣出口量很少，這在夏季是正常的，但我們也沒有看到 10 月的出口量太多。所以我想知道您是否可以對我們看到的生產水平或項目以及那裡更廣泛的情況發表評論？最後，簡單介紹一下印尼的發現。假設這些目標是為邦唐和液化天然氣提供原料，我假設那裡有能力進行更多出口，這樣公平嗎？

Thank you, Biraj. First of all, about exploration, just to -- have you seen in the past that they continue to perform. We perform through budget that were maintain probably let's say, in a steady way, notwithstanding the industry has substantially reduced this kind of activity because we also selected the capacity, the opportunity near field, and we were able also clearly to take advantage of our internal skills and the capability to process to our supercomputer seismic emerging and therefore, to derisk the uncertainty. I will leave to Guido the answer about additional color on the exploration, clearly, Indonesia plan of moderation and Egypt Zohr production.

謝謝你，比拉吉。首先，關於探索，你過去是否看到他們繼續表現。我們透過預算來執行，可以說，以穩定的方式進行，儘管行業已經大幅減少了此類活動，因為我們還選擇了產能、近場機會，而且我們也能夠清楚地利用我們的內部優勢處理我們的超級電腦正在出現的地震的技能和能力，從而消除不確定性的風險。我將把關於勘探的額外色彩的答案留給吉多，顯然，印尼的節制計劃和埃及佐爾生產。

On exploration, we may say that we have a very balanced and disciplined budget. As you know, we basically allocate money on ILX and near field opportunities, but also a minor component to the high impact well. And this was the strategy over the last 7 years, which proved to be very solid and which we delivered upon. About Geng, Geng is clearly -- it shows the successful of our distinctive strategy focusing on gas, focusing on nearby infrastructure availability, reinforcing our equity position in a very strategic area and also supporting our dual exploration model and fast-track development. So Geng, it includes all these features.

在探索方面，我們可以說我們有一個非常平衡和嚴格的預算。如您所知，我們基本上將資金分配在 ILX 和近場機會上，但也將資金分配給高影響井的一小部分。這是過去 7 年的策略，事實證明該策略非常可靠，我們也兌現了這項策略。關於耿，耿很明顯——它表明了我們專注於天然氣、關注附近基礎設施可用性的獨特戰略的成功，加強了我們在戰略性地區的股權地位，並支持我們的雙重勘探模式和快速開發。所以耿，它包含了所有這些功能。

As you may have appreciated in the slide, we have quite a significant amount of resources discovered, but also significant exploration upside which would allow us, on one hand, to extend and expand the plateau of the current floating production unit in the southern area, but will also allow to build a new hub in the North area where we have a significant upside potential on the exploration, which could extend significantly the plateau.

正如您在幻燈片中可能已經意識到的那樣，我們發現了相當多的資源，而且還有巨大的勘探優勢，這將使我們一方面能夠擴大和擴大南部地區當前浮式生產裝置的平台，但也將允許在北部地區建立一個新的樞紐，我們在那裡的勘探具有巨大的上升潛力，這可能會大大擴展高原。

In front of us, there is an LNG plant, Bontang, with a capacity of 22 million tonnes per year, which is, I would say, almost empty at the moment, the capacity utilized is 5.6 million per ton per year. So we will be plenty of capacity to accommodate the plateau production coming from Geng discovery and the stranded assets, which we bought from IDD both in the North and in the Southern area. I would also underline that this discovery is very liquid rich, and this helps also a lot to enhance the value of the asset. As far as Zohr, Zohr is producing from 2.1 to 2.2 bcf per day, now we are -- and it's in line with our plans. We are now running a number of projects and activities, drilling activities in filling specifically, but also other plateau extension activity to enhance the capacity of the facility to handle the current level of production of Zohr.

在我們面前，有一個液化天然氣工廠，Bontang，年產能為 2200 萬噸，我想說，目前幾乎是空的，利用率為每年每噸 560 萬噸。因此，我們將有足夠的產能來容納耿礦區的高原生產以及我們從 IDD 購買的北部和南部地區的擱淺資產。我還要強調的是，這項發現的流動性非常豐富，這也有助於提高資產的價值。就 Zohr 而言，Zohr 每天的產量為 2.1 至 2.2 bcf，現在我們是這樣——這符合我們的計劃。我們現在正在運行一些項目和活動，特別是充填鑽探活動，還有其他高原延伸活動，以提高設施處理 Zohr 目前生產水平的能力。

And just one quick follow-up on Egypt. Are you having any issues kind of on the currency side given the devaluation and so on in terms of getting money in and out?

這只是關於埃及的一個快速後續行動。鑑於貨幣貶值等問題，您在資金進出方面是否遇到任何問題？

We are not having issues with the currency because our contracts are in dollars. So we don't have any impact on the valuation of the currency.

我們沒有貨幣問題，因為我們的合約以美元計價。所以我們對貨幣的估值沒有任何影響。

The next question is from Oswald Clint of Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的奧斯瓦爾德·克林特。

Yes. I'd like to go back to Indonesia to get a little bit more detail. It's clearly a massive discovery. I was curious when you'll go after this multi-TCF upside? Is this -- can you get this into 2024 exploration drilling plan where we can look at that. Is there any chance of any of the missing acreage blocks on your map that seem to extend away from this current discovery. Is there any license rounds coming up that you might participate in? And would you run this at 88% equity? Or I think Francesco talked about valorizing it at some point. Is that a couple of years down the line? That's the first question.

是的。我想回到印尼了解更多細節。這顯然是一個重大發現。我很好奇你什麼時候會追求這種多 TCF 的優勢？是這樣嗎——你能把它納入 2024 年勘探鑽探計劃中嗎？我們可以研究一下。您的地圖上是否有可能存在任何缺失的面積區塊，這些區塊似乎超出了目前的發現範圍。您可能會參加即將到來的任何許可輪次嗎？你會以 88% 的股權經營這家公司嗎？或者我認為弗朗西斯科在某個時候談到了對其進行估值。這是幾年後的事嗎？這是第一個問題。

Secondly, as we think about new developments in places like Indonesia, your friend, Mr. Puliti at Oil & Money this year was saying, he had to say no to a new FPSO job for a top client talking about lack of people, lack of supply chain pressure. So I don't know if that was you, but it feeds into the view the supply chain is tightening up rather quickly. And so I wanted to ask about pressures you're experiencing and ultimately, just how robust that 3% to 4% volume growth is in the 4-year plan.

其次，當我們考慮印尼等地的新發展時，你的朋友，石油與貨幣公司的普利蒂先生今年說，他不得不對頂級客戶的新 FPSO 工作說不，因為他談論的是缺乏人員，缺乏供應鏈壓力。所以我不知道那是不是你，但這讓我們看到供應鏈正在迅速收緊。因此，我想詢問您所面臨的壓力，以及最終 4 年計劃中 3% 至 4% 的銷量增長有多強勁。

Okay. About the dual restoration model, you know that this is something that you applied generally speaking, in the various discovery. Clearly, this will depend on the opportunities on the progress in terms of development. It is a model that, let's say, flexible clearly by having an exposure on 88% after the acquisition of Neptune is an additional opportunity to extract and fast track value. I leave them to Guido and then Aldo Napolitano, that is the head of exploration, the answer related to the development of the cost and the exploration upside.

好的。關於雙重恢復模型，你知道這是你在各種發現中普遍應用的東西。顯然，這將取決於發展進程中的機會。可以說，這種模式顯然很靈活，在收購海王星後，其股權比例達到 88%，這是提取和快速追蹤價值的額外機會。我把它們留給 Guido，然後是 Aldo Napolitano，他是勘探部門的負責人，答案與成本和勘探優勢的發展有關。

Now clearly, the pickup of the activity, both traditional and grid is putting pressure on contractor, both in terms of capacity and ability to deliver activity, but also in terms of cost inflation, we know that from '21 to '22, there was an increase of 10% of cost overall, 7% from '22 to '23, and we expect a 4% year-on-year in the following year. So this clearly is factored in our CapEx estimation. The quality of Geng is such that we expect a very competitive unit cost per development. In terms of further exploration, I would -- in the surrounding area, I would leave the floor to Aldo to give more color.

現在顯然，傳統和電網活動的增加正在給承包商帶來壓力，無論是在能力和交付活動的能力方面，還是在成本通膨方面，我們知道，從 21 世紀到 22 世紀，總體成本增加了10% ，從22年到23年增加了7%，我們預計明年將年增4%。因此，這顯然已納入我們的資本支出估算中。 Geng 的品質如此之高，我們期望每次開發的單位成本都非常有競爭力。在進一步的探索方面，我會——在周邊地區，我會把地板留給奧爾多來賦予更多的色彩。

Yes, thank you, Guido. Yes, we are defining the plans for next year and future years in terms of further drilling in the areas of the Kutei Basin. Maybe you have noticed that we have already actually pursued a strategy in the acquisition of acreage in the area. So we have recently -- so just a few months ago, actually had the award of another block in the area to the Peri Mahakam and as already explained, we have increased our shares in all other blocks where we believe there is a good potential. So we have not yet defined in details our plans for future drilling, but certainly, this will be a focus area.

是的，謝謝你，吉多。是的，我們正在製定明年和未來幾年在 Kutei 盆地地區進一步鑽探的計劃。也許您已經注意到，我們實際上已經採取了收購該地區土地的策略。因此，就在幾個月前，我們實際上將該地區的另一個區塊授予了Peri Mahakam，正如已經解釋的那樣，我們增加了我們在所有其他區塊中的股份，我們認為這些區塊具有良好的潛力。因此，我們尚未詳細確定未來鑽探的計劃，但當然，這將是一個重點領域。

You had also a question sorry, on the confidence of the planned growth for production of 3% to 4%. This clearly -- we have a strong pipeline of projects, namely Baleine, in Ivory Coast, Congo LNG, A&E structure in Libya. And last but not least, this Geng plus Mozambique and other projects -- significant projects from other affiliates and our satellites in Angola, a new gas project and Agogo development and from VÃ¥r, Johan Castberg and Balder X. So with this pipeline of projects, which has been most of them already sanctioned in the plan, and in execution, we are very confident to deliver this planned growth.

抱歉，您也提出了關於對計劃產量增長 3% 至 4% 的信心的問題。很明顯，我們擁有強大的管道項目，即科特迪瓦的 Baleine、剛果液化天然氣、利比亞的 A&E 結構。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，這個Geng 加上莫三比克和其他項目——來自其他附屬公司和我們在安哥拉的衛星的重要項目、一個新的天然氣項目和Agogo 開發以及來自Vír、Johan Castberg 和Balder X 的項目。項目，其中大部分已經在計劃中得到批准，並且在執行中，我們非常有信心實現這一計劃增長。

Next question comes from Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca.

下一個問題來自 Mediobanca 的 Alessandro Pozzi。

The first one is on (inaudible) in carbon capture assets. And I believe recently, you announced a new agreement with the U.K. with regards to high net and you secured basically the first asset-based regulated model. I was wondering if you can give us a bit more color on the economics and what are the, let's say, the pros versus a more traditional model? And the second question is on GGP. I believe you contracted a fairly large amount of new volumes on the LNG. You have a target of 18 million tonnes per annum by 2016 (sic) [2026]. And I believe that you are basically pretty much there with the new volumes, so I was wondering whether you could see upside basically to the long-term guidance there.

第一個是碳捕獲資產（聽不清楚）。我相信最近，你們宣布了與英國關於高淨值的新協議，並且你們基本上獲得了第一個基於資產的監管模式。我想知道您是否能為我們提供更多有關經濟學的信息，以及與更傳統的模型相比，優點是什麼？第二個問題是關於GGP的。我相信你們簽訂了相當大量的新液化天然氣合約。您的目標是到 2016 年（原文如此）[2026] 達到每年 1800 萬噸。我相信你基本上已經了解了新的捲，所以我想知道你是否能看到那裡的長期指導基本上有好處。

And the final one, if I may, on North Geng.

最後一個，如果可以的話，是在北耿。

You talked about a lot of potential upside in terms of discoveries. I was wondering when will you be in a position to finalize the size of the next -- the second floating production unit and whether potentially that has the capacity of doubling the current production in the country?

您談到了發現方面的許多潛在優勢。我想知道你們什麼時候能夠最終確定下一個——第二個浮動生產裝置的規模，以及它是否有可能使該國目前的產量翻倍？

Thank you, Alessandro. Two questions are for Guido. And the last one, the GGP is related -- is to Cristian.

謝謝你，亞歷山德羅。有兩個問題想問吉多。最後一個，GGP 是相關的——是與 Cristian 相關的。

Yes, you're absolutely right. We have agreed with the U.K. authorities, the main economic model terms. And however, the final stage to assign the definitive economic license is still ongoing, and we are planning to complete this process by the second quarter of 2024 in order to have an FID -- cluster FID, which includes also the emitter by the quarter 3 of 2024. The pricing is clearly -- and the economic model is based on regulated asset base model, which is still, as I said, under finalization with the regulator. And it will include also some mitigations mechanism to reduce the risk related to this first-of-a-kind project.

是的，你說得完全正確。我們已經與英國當局就主要經濟模式條款達成協議。然而，分配最終經濟許可證的最後階段仍在進行中，我們計劃在 2024 年第二季度之前完成此過程，以便在第三季度之前獲得 FID（集群 FID），其中還包括排放者2024 年。定價很明確，經濟模型是基於受監管的資產基礎模型，正如我所說，該模型仍在與監管機構最終確定。它還將包括一些緩解機制，以降低與這個首創項目相關的風險。

So it basically is the return on the CapEx that you spend on the project?

那麼它基本上就是您在專案上花費的資本支出的回報？

Yes. Basically, it is -- this is the mechanism of model.

是的。基本上，這就是模型的機制。

(inaudible) on the overall cost, including also the operating cost?

（聽不清楚）整體成本，還包括營運成本？

Yes.

是的。

So on the LNG portfolio, let's say, on the LNG supply contracted portfolio, as you said, we have advanced substantially with these last 3 agreements that we have signed. We are now around 13 million tons contracted capacity. We want to achieve the 18 million tonne by 2026. And sure, I mean, I think the big evolution on the Geng North discovery, this will give us some upside on the target that clearly we are going to take into consideration when we draw the next plan.

因此，在液化天然氣投資組合方面，就液化天然氣供應合約投資組合而言，正如您所說，我們在簽署的最後 3 項協議方面取得了實質進展。我們現在的合約產能約為1300萬噸。我們希望在 2026 年實現 1800 萬噸。當然，我的意思是，我認為耿北發現的重大進展，這將為我們的目標帶來一些好處，我們在製定目標時顯然會考慮到這一點。下一步計劃。

Yes. As far as the size of the potential North Hub, of course, is still premature to say, but for the size of the -- for the size of the current discovery and the asset and the knowledge we do have of the asset, we are planning something which is between 800 million standard cubic feet per day to [1] Bcf per day with also a significant liquid production between 50,000 to 60,000 barrel per day. This is for the knowledge, information and data we do have today, of course, we are still assessing the discovery.

是的。當然，就潛在的北部樞紐的規模而言，現在下結論還為時過早，但就目前發現的規模、資產以及我們對資產的了解而言，我們規劃產量為每天8 億標準立方英尺至[ 1] Bcf，同時液體產量也可達到每天50,000 至60,000 桶。這是我們今天所擁有的知識、資訊和數據，當然，我們仍在評估這項發現。

Okay. So 50,000 to 60,000 barrels of liquids plus on top the dry gas.

好的。所以 50,000 到 60,000 桶液體加上乾燥氣體。

Yes, the dry gas.

是的，乾燥氣體。

Okay. So it's doubling basically, more than doubling the production from Indonesia at the moment.

好的。所以基本上是翻了一番，目前印尼的產量翻了一番還多。

More than doubling our production from Indonesia. As you know, the Southern area hub asset, Jangkrik as the capacity is producing 700 million standard cubic feet per day currently and with the other asset discovered, which we will tie in as soon as the other assets would decline, we will maintain for longer this plateau. Yes. So we are almost more than doubling the production.

我們印度尼西亞的產量增加了一倍以上。如您所知，南部地區樞紐資產 Jangkrik 目前的產能為每天 7 億標準立方英尺，隨著其他資產的發現，我們將在其他資產下降時立即將其納入其中，我們將維持更長時間這個高原。是的。所以我們的產量幾乎增加了一倍以上。

Interesting. And I guess, FID probably sometime next year.

有趣的。我猜，最終投資決定可能會在明年的某個時候。

Yes. This is the plan, of course, many moving parts, stakeholder engagement, final assessment appraising of the discovery, but this is the target.

是的。這就是計劃，當然還有許多活動部分、利害關係人參與、對發現的最終評估，但這就是目標。

The next question comes from Irene Himona of Societe Generale.

下一個問題來自法國興業銀行的艾琳希莫納。

My first question also on Indonesia, please. And congratulations on this substantial fine. If you could perhaps give us a sense with the knowledge that you have now a sense of timing for this start-up. And then is there enough uncommitted CapEx in the 4-year plan to develop it with unchanged CapEx? That's the first question. The second one on Venezuela, what does it mean for Eni exactly that the U.S. have lifted sanctions at least for a few months?

我的第一個問題也是關於印尼的。恭喜您獲得這筆巨額罰款。如果您能讓我們了解一下您現在對這家新創公司的時機有把握的話。那麼四年計畫中是否有足夠的未承諾資本支出來在資本支出不變的情況下開發它？這是第一個問題。第二個是關於委內瑞拉，美國解除制裁至少幾個月對埃尼到底意味著什麼？

In terms of CapEx, clearly, we are working on the 4 year plan, with all the change that we are discussing, the sanctioning, the evolution of the portfolio, the new discovery that is clearly as a high rating or ranking in our plan because of the clear advantage of these volumes in terms of value, in terms of cost, so I think that you shouldn't expect a major increases. There is a flexibility, as you mentioned, there are the commitment generally are clearly more focused on the first year. Then there are declining firm commitment in CapEx along with the plan. So the space room for accommodating new initiatives.

就資本支出而言，顯然，我們正在製定 4 年計劃，其中包括我們正在討論的所有變化、制裁、投資組合的演變、新發現，這些顯然在我們的計劃中具有很高的評級或排名，因為這些數量在價值和成本方面具有明顯的優勢，所以我認為你不應該期望大幅成長。正如您所提到的，存在靈活性，承諾通常顯然更側重於第一年。此外，隨著計劃的實施，資本支出的堅定承諾也在下降。因此，有容納新舉措的空間。

On Venezuela, Venezuela clearly is now is an opportunity. Clearly, we are still evaluating which are the option in terms of creating an additional stream for recovering our exposure. So far this year, we can say we were relatively satisfied with the capability to keep our exposure under control. Obviously, the opportunity of having more volumes and higher production from the country should help to increase also the number of lifting. I don't know if Guido would add something more on the Indonesia start-up and Venezuela activity.

對委內瑞拉來說，委內瑞拉現在顯然是一個機會。顯然，我們仍在評估哪些選項可以創建額外的流來恢復我們的風險。今年到目前為止，我們可以說我們對控制風險的能力相對滿意。顯然，該國擁有更多數量和更高產量的機會應該有助於增加起重數量。我不知道 Guido 是否會補充有關印尼新創公司和委內瑞拉活動的更多內容。

No, on Indonesia, I think I've said which is the target for the FID, of course, our approach on CapEx is to be disciplined, and we constantly rank our project when there are assets which are more attractive than others, we reshuffle and we continue to reshuffle our activity plan.

不，在印度尼西亞，我想我已經說過哪個是FID的目標，當然，我們在資本支出上的做法是嚴格的，我們不斷地對我們的項目進行排名，當有資產比其他資產更具吸引力時，我們會重新洗牌我們繼續重新調整我們的活動計劃。

Next question comes from Michele Della Vigna of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Michele Della Vigna。

Congratulations on the strong results. I have 2 questions. The first one comes back to Egypt. I was wondering if you could quantify the impact of potentially not setting any more supplies from Israel if the current interruptions continue and how that affects your GGP guidance? And secondly, going back to your balance sheet, especially in the age of higher interest rates, I was wondering if you could clarify a list some of the moving parts between variable [debt] and how much benefit you can actually get from the abundant cash that you have on the balance sheet?

祝賀取得了優異的成績。我有 2 個問題。第一個回到埃及。我想知道如果當前的中斷繼續下去，您是否可以量化可能不再從以色列提供更多供應的影響，以及這如何影響您的 GGP 指導？其次，回到您的資產負債表，尤其是在利率較高的時代，我想知道您是否可以澄清可變[債務]之間的一些移動部分以及您實際上可以從充裕的現金中獲得多少收益你的資產負債表上有什麼？

I leave that to Cristian, the first answer and then I'll keep the second one.

我把第一個答案留給克里斯蒂安，然後我保留第二個答案。

Yes, sure. So the current shutoff of the Tamar field clearly has an impact on the balance of the overall region because, as you know, I mean, Egypt was important -- is still important just from Israel and this has reduced the amount of gas available for export. On the other extent though, now consumption in the country is decreasing substantially due to the normal seasonal effect. So I think, I mean, we will see export resuming once this effect will be notable. When it comes to the impact on GGP, the range that I gave -- that we gave for the guidance actually includes already the uncertainty on the supply from Egypt. So I would say the guidance is resilient to that impact.

是的，當然。因此，目前塔瑪油田的關閉顯然對整個地區的平衡產生了影響，因為正如你所知，我的意思是，埃及很重要——僅對以色列來說仍然很重要，這減少了可供出口的天然氣量。但另一方面，由於正常的季節性影響，目前該國的消費正在大幅下降。所以我認為，一旦這種影響變得顯著，我們就會看到出口恢復。當談到對 GGP 的影響時，我給出的指導範圍實際上已經包括了埃及供應的不確定性。所以我想說，該指導意見對這種影響具有彈性。

About debt, I think that we are in a very, let's say, favorable position as 80% of our debt is fixed rate. And clearly, we benefit from instead from the increase of rates and returns related to our large liquidity. Just to give you a figure that I think is quite interesting. Last year, the net cost of our debt, so including the financial cost and the cash or the benefit from our financial asset was 2.3%, this year is 0.8%. So the increase of the interest rate is benefiting more proportionally our balance sheet and therefore, we are exposed to this trend, clearly, that will reduce at the end of our overall net cost.

關於債務，我認為我們處於非常有利的位置，因為我們 80% 的債務是固定利率的。顯然，我們受益於與我們大量流動性相關的利率和回報的增加。只是給你一個我認為很有趣的數字。去年，我們的淨債務成本（包括財務成本和現金或金融資產收益）為 2.3%，今年為 0.8%。因此，利率的增加對我們的資產負債表的好處更大，因此，我們面臨這種趨勢，顯然，這將在我們的總體淨成本結束時減少。

Next question is from Henri Patricot of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的亨利‧派崔克。

I have 2 questions, please. The first one on the guidance for 2023 for EBIT raised to EUR 14 billion for the year. I mean, if I look at the implied EBIT for the fourth quarter, it looks pretty close to the EBIT you generated in the third quarter despite what seems to be more positive macro assumptions for the rest of this year. So I was wondering whether there are other factors that would be negative for EBIT and offset this by the macro environment in the fourth quarter? And secondly, I want to come back to Enilive and the performance. So we could see the guidance going up for the year. Looking just on the third quarter, year-on-year, there's a bit of a decline here. So I was hoping you could expand on the moving part that you see in this business, whether you're seeing performance on the (inaudible) side, whether there is more pressure on the marketing business, interesting in any details here.

我有 2 個問題，請問。第一個關於 2023 年息稅前利潤的指導方針將當年的息稅前利潤提高至 140 億歐元。我的意思是，如果我看一下第四季的隱含息稅前利潤，它看起來與第三季產生的息稅前利潤非常接近，儘管今年剩餘時間的宏觀假設似乎更為積極。所以我想知道是否還有其他因素對息稅前利潤產生負面影響並被第四季度的宏觀環境所抵消？其次，我想回到 Enilive 和表演。因此，我們可以看到今年的指引上升。僅從第三季來看，年比有所下降。因此，我希望您能夠擴展您在這項業務中看到的動態部分，無論您是否看到（聽不清楚）方面的表現，行銷業務是否面臨更大的壓力，這裡的任何細節都很有趣。

I have missed the second question. On the first one, you have to consider that this -- our business are not, let's say, are subject to seasonal fluctuations. Therefore, you cannot extrapolate linearity between the various segments. So there could be clearly more linear performance in the upstream at GGP retail marketing are all clearly following the different seasons. The difference or the main, let's say, variable part between the third and fourth quarter is that you have a lower contribution from the refining and from the marketing, downstream marketing. There is clearly, as we mentioned, a relatively mild change in GGP, all the rest are relatively steady. In terms of the market of biofuel, I leave the question the floor to Stefano Ballista.

我錯過了第二個問題。對於第一個問題，你必須考慮到這一點——我們的業務不會受到季節性波動的影響。因此，您無法推斷各個段落之間的線性度。因此，GGP 零售行銷的上游顯然可以有更線性的表現，這些都明顯遵循不同的季節。第三季和第四季之間的差異或主要的可變部分是，來自煉油和行銷、下游行銷的貢獻較低。正如我們所提到的，GGP 的變化顯然相對溫和，其餘的都相對穩定。就生物燃料市場而言，我將問題留給Stefano Ballista。

Yes. The third quarter results for Enilive have been robust. We got to EUR 271 million. There is a reduction compared to last year's third quarter. It's related to the marketing business. And reason is twofold. Last year, we experienced one of the highest historical margin on retail. This year, year-on-year, we are experiencing on marketing, retail competitive pressure that actually rose together with the rising of the oil prices. On the other side, we got extra result on wholesale activities, wholesale business, still on marketing. And this is thanks to a new strategy focused on overall optimal trade-off between volume and margin.

是的。 Enilive 第三季業績強勁。我們達到了 2.71 億歐元。與去年第三季相比有所減少。這與行銷業務有關。原因是雙重的。去年，我們經歷了零售業歷史最高利潤率之一。今年，與去年同期相比，我們在行銷、零售方面面臨的競爭壓力實際上是隨著油價的上漲而上升的。另一方面，我們在批發活動、批發業務以及行銷方面都取得了額外的成果。這要歸功於專注於銷售量和利潤之間整體最佳權衡的新策略。

This started at the beginning of the year. And if we look at the global figures of the first 9 months, we are getting to a plus 9% compared to the 9 months of last year. We are landing at EUR 611 million of EBIT. This is due for this wholesale strategy and also given the optimal performance on biobusiness. Given these figures, we see an EBITDA guideline increased to around EUR 1 billion at the end of the year.

這要從今年年初開始。如果我們看一下前 9 個月的全球數據，我們會發現與去年 9 個月相比，成長了 9%。我們的息稅前利潤達到 6.11 億歐元。這是由於這種批發策略以及生物業務的最佳表現。鑑於這些數字，我們預計 EBITDA 指導方針將在年底增至 10 億歐元左右。

The next question is from Henry Tarr of Berenberg.

下一個問題來自貝倫貝格的亨利·塔爾。

Two, if I can. One, I think you mentioned an arbitration in GGP potentially coming in Q4. Can you give any color on the potential materiality or what that relates to? That would be helpful. And then just secondly, on Versalis. Clearly, the Novamont acquisition sort of gives an indication as to the aim for that unit. Is there anything else that can be done sort of on a medium-term view to improve profitability there? And how do you see sort of margins moving as we look into Q4 and 2024?

兩個，如果可以的話。第一，我認為您提到 GGP 可能會在第四季度進行仲裁。您能否對潛在的重要性或與之相關的內容給予任何說明？那會有幫助的。然後是第二個，關於Versalis。顯然，收購 Novamont 某種程度上表明了該部門的目標。從中期角度來看，還有什麼可以做的來提高獲利能力嗎？當我們展望第四季和 2024 年時，您如何看待利潤率的變化？

Two questions, the first for Chris and the second for Adriano Alfani that is the head of Versalis.

有兩個問題，第一個是克里斯的問題，第二個是 Versalis 負責人阿德里亞諾·阿爾法尼的問題。

So look, the arbitration that I was referring to is litigation around long-term contract that has been ended already. So it's actually past legacy. And the possible outcomes are well within the range of the guidance that we gave you. So the guidance, as I said, is resilient to that outcome.

所以你看，我所說的仲裁是圍繞著已經結束的長期合約的訴訟。所以這實際上是過去的遺產。可能的結果完全在我們為您提供的指導範圍內。因此，正如我所說，該指導意見對這一結果具有彈性。

About Versalis and Novamont acquisition. Clearly, Novamont acquisition was a major step into bio or green chemistry that in the whole portfolio Versalis was pretty small. Clearly, now the main effort is to integrate this portfolio and to generate a complementary approach in terms of channel to market and so to complement portfolio product, but also portfolio in term of market participation. And so to enhance and get the most of the synergy we can get. So we expect it to significantly grow the Novamont portfolio, but at the same time, the portfolio of Versalis.

關於 Versalis 和 Novamont 收購。顯然，收購 Novamont 是向生物或綠色化學邁出的重要一步，而在整個產品組合中 Versalis 的規模相當小。顯然，現在的主要工作是整合該產品組合，並在市場通路方面形成補充方法，從而補充產品組合，以及市場參與方面的產品組合。因此，為了增強並充分利用我們可以獲得的協同作用。因此，我們預計 Novamont 產品組合將顯著成長，同時 Versalis 的產品組合也將顯著成長。

As we said last time, we expect that in the next few years, we should shift around 15% of our portfolio to specialize in green chemistry, including, of course, within green chemistry circularity. The situation in term of chemistry industry is pretty challenging. We don't expect significant improvement in Q4 also because Q4 is a low season for some market like construction, especially for the winter, although the winter is pretty mild, but we don't expect any significant improvement in Q4 from a profitability point, so pretty much in line with Q3.

正如我們上次所說，我們預計在未來幾年內，我們應該將大約 15% 的投資組合轉向專門從事綠色化學，當然也包括綠色化學循環領域。化學工業的情況相當具有挑戰性。我們預計第四季度不會有顯著改善，因為第四季度對於建築等一些市場來說是淡季，尤其是冬季，儘管冬季相當溫和，但從盈利角度來看，我們預計第四季度不會有任何顯著改善，所以與第三季幾乎一致。

Next question comes from Massimo Bonisoli of Equita.

下一個問題來自 Equita 的 Massimo Bonisoli。

Two questions. The first on Plenitude how many clients do you expect to gain from the forthcoming liberalization process in the Italian regulated market and what would be the margin gap for the new clients compared to your current average client? Second question on LNG. Following the long-term supply agreements with Qatar and Indonesia. Now do you plan to secure some of the volumes with the end customers for the gas uptake? Or would you like to keep those volumes for the spot market?

兩個問題。 Plenitude 上的第一個問題是，您預計從義大利監管市場即將到來的自由化過程中獲得多少客戶？與您目前的平均客戶相比，新客戶的利潤差距是多少？關於液化天然氣的第二個問題。遵循與卡達和印尼的長期供應協議。現在您是否打算向最終客戶保證部分天然氣吸收量？或者您想保留這些數量用於現貨市場嗎？

Stefano Goberti for the Plenitude question. And again, Cristian Signoretto for the LNG.

Stefano Goberti 回答了 Plenitude 問題。液化天然氣公司的克里斯蒂安·西尼奧雷托（Cristian Signoretto）再次發言。

Massimo, thank you for your question. First of all, we are following closely the process of the liberalization because we still had a lot of rumor around, but no clear picture yet set. We will participate in the bidding. It's still early time to see whether our bidding will be very much successful or not. Of course, we will play our game there. And in terms of margin squeeze, let's see what's the rule of the game will be set at the end with the regulation in place. And then we will decide how to participate and what to do exactly.

馬西莫，謝謝你的問題。首先，我們正在密切關注自由化的進程，因為我們仍然有很多謠言，但還沒有明確的情況。我們將參與投標。現在判斷我們的競標能否成功還為時過早。當然，我們會在那裡玩我們的遊戲。在利潤擠壓方面，讓我們看看在監管到位後，最終會制定什麼遊戲規則。然後我們將決定如何參與以及具體做什麼。

So on the LNG portfolio, as you can imagine, we have a strategy of allocating our supply portfolio to different line of business. So clearly spot and keep the portfolio exposed to the spot market is part of the strategy. But also, I would say, part of the strategy, especially for the portfolio, which is more East of Suez. So clearly, Indonesia would be part of that is also to secure an outlet for the long term. And this is, I think, a good moment also to be in the market given the appetite for long-term LNG contracting in these part of the world. And so we are currently actively marketing our portfolio in that part of the world.

因此，在液化天然氣產品組合上，正如您可以想像的那樣，我們制定了將供應組合分配到不同業務線的策略。因此，明確發現並保持投資組合暴露於現貨市場是該策略的一部分。但我想說，這也是策略的一部分，特別是對於位於蘇伊士運河以東的投資組合而言。很明顯，印尼將參與其中，也是為了確保長期的出路。我認為，鑑於世界這些地區對長期液化天然氣合約的需求，這也是進入市場的好時機。因此，我們目前正在世界該地區積極行銷我們的產品組合。

The final question is from Alejandro Vigil of Santander.

最後一個問題來自桑坦德銀行的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。

I have 2 questions about Plenitude. One is about the performance of the retail business in the third quarter has been very strong, if it can be extrapolated for the next quarters, this performance? And the second question is if you can give us any color about the process of looking for new partners in this -- for this business?

我有 2 個關於 Plenitude 的問題。一是關於第三季零售業務的表現已經非常強勁，如果可以推斷接下來的幾個季度，這個表現如何？第二個問題是，您能否為我們介紹一下為這項業務尋找新合作夥伴的過程？

About the process, the process of sales, then I will leave it to Stefano for the question on the performance of the third quarter. The process of sale is continuing. The discussion are continuing a lot of details, a lot of let's say, negotiation and paper work to be completed, but I confirm that we are proceeding. We don't see so far any major hurdles towards the conclusion. Then I leave to Stefano.

關於流程，銷售的流程，那麼我就留給Stefano問關於第三季業績的問題。銷售過程仍在繼續。討論仍在繼續，涉及很多細節，比如說，很多談判和文書工作有待完成，但我確認我們正在繼續進行。到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何得出結論的重大障礙。然後我就去找斯特凡諾。

Thank you, Alejandro, for the question. Of course the quarter was a very good quarter, EUR 284 million the EBITDA that we recorded this quarter, mainly coming from our retail activity. We have been working on the overall international European platform on managing the exposure we have been working a lot on also defending our activity in Italy with working on the client base and also offering the -- what we call it, added value services. So of course, these results are not one-off, are repeatable. That's why we also increased our guidance to year-end to EUR 900 million of EBITDA.

謝謝亞歷杭德羅的提問。當然，這個季度是一個非常好的季度，我們本季記錄的 EBITDA 為 2.84 億歐元，主要來自我們的零售活動。我們一直致力於整個國際歐洲平台的管理，我們一直在努力保護我們在義大利的活動，致力於客戶群，並提供我們所謂的增值服務。當然，這些結果不是一次性的，而是可重複的。這就是為什麼我們也將年底的 EBITDA 指引提高至 9 億歐元。

That was the final question. Thank you for participating in the Eni conference.

這是最後一個問題。感謝您參加埃尼會議。

Thank you to all the attendees. And please, if you have any additional questions, our Investor Relations team is available for providing the details. Thank you, and good afternoon.

感謝所有與會者。如果您還有任何其他問題，我們的投資者關係團隊可以提供詳細資訊。謝謝你，下午好。