Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Duke Energy First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Lydia, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加杜克能源 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。我的名字是 Lydia，今天我將擔任您的接線生。 （操作員指令）

I'll now hand you over to Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁 Abby Motsinger 來開始。

Thank you, Lydia, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair and CEO; along with Harry Sideris, President; and Brian Savoy, CFO.

謝謝你，莉迪亞，大家早安。歡迎閱讀杜克能源 2024 年第一季財報回顧和業務更新。今天主持我們電話會議的是主席兼執行長 Lynn Good；以及總裁 Harry Sideris；以及財務長 Brian Savoy。

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論將包括使用非公認會計準則財務指標和前瞻性資訊。由於今天的材料和杜克能源向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中披露的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述不同。今天簡報的附錄包括補充資訊以及非公認會計準則財務指標的對帳。

With that, let me turn the call over to Lynn.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給 Lynn。

Abby, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.44, delivering a strong start to the year. These results are $0.24 above last year, driven by growth from rate activity across our jurisdictions, strengthening retail volumes and improved weather. We remain confident in our outlook and are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10 and our long-term EPS growth rate of 5% to 7% through 2028.

艾比，謝謝你，大家早安。今天，我們宣布第一季調整後每股收益為 1.44 美元，為今年帶來了強勁的開局。這一結果比去年高出 0.24 美元，這得益於我們轄區內利率活動的成長、零售量的增加和天氣的改善。我們對我們的前景仍然充滿信心，並重申我們的 2024 年指導範圍為 5.85 美元至 6.10 美元，以及到 2028 年的長期每股收益增長率為 5% 至 7%。

We have a clear path forward as a fully regulated utility operating in some of the most attractive and fastest-growing areas of the country. Our strategy will drive continued growth, underpinned by our 5-year $73 billion capital plan, efficient recovery mechanisms and track record of constructive regulatory outcomes.

作為一家在全國最具吸引力和發展最快的地區運營的完全受監管的公用事業公司，我們的前進道路十分清晰。我們的策略將推動持續成長，並以我們的5年730億美元資本計畫、高效的恢復機制和建設性的監管成果記錄為基礎。

Moving to Slide 5. Our jurisdictions are experiencing unprecedented growth from population migration and economic development. We're committed to meeting these increasing customer demand through an all-of-the-above strategy that preserves affordability and reliability as we decarbonize. In doing so, 2024 marks an important stage in our fleet transition as we move from the planning phase to project execution.

轉到投影片 5。我們致力於透過上述全方位策略來滿足日益增長的客戶需求，在脫碳的同時保持可負擔性和可靠性。這樣一來，2024 年就標誌著我們船隊轉型的重要階段，從規劃階段進入專案執行階段。

In Florida, we're on track to have 1,500 megawatts of utility-owned solar in service by year-end. And in our recently filed 10-year site plan, we expect to more than triple the amount of solar on our system by 2033. In the Carolinas, we're completing annual solar procurements that will add approximately 1,500 megawatts to the grid each year beginning in 2027. These investments are part of our goal to have 30,000 megawatts of regulated renewables on our system by 2035.

在佛羅裡達州，我們預計在年底前投入使用 1,500 兆瓦的公用事業太陽能。在我們最近提交的 10 年站點規劃中，我們預計到 2033 年我們的系統中太陽能的數量將增加兩倍以上。

In the Carolinas, we filed certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity in March to build more than 2 gigawatts of new, advanced class of natural gas generation. The filings with the NCUC include 2 simple-cycle combustion turbines and 1 combined cycle plant, consistent with the Carolinas resource plan. Pending regulatory approvals, construction is planned to start in 2026 with all units operational by the end of 2028.

在卡羅來納州，我們在3月提交了公共便利和必要證書，以建造超過2千兆瓦的新型先進天然氣發電廠。向 NCUC 提交的文件包括 2 台簡單循環燃氣渦輪機和 1 台聯合循環電廠，與卡羅萊納州的資源計畫一致。等待監管部門批准後，建設計畫於 2026 年開始，所有機組將於 2028 年底投入營運。

Each of these new facilities will be sited in existing coal plants and will provide needed dispatchable generation when those units retire. We recognize there's a lot of attention on natural gas in its role in achieving net zero. We believe natural gas must be a part of not just Duke's, but our nation's energy transition strategy in the face of unprecedented demand from AI data centers, chips manufacturers and other economic development, natural gas remains an essential tool to provide reliable and affordable energy for customers and complements our substantial investments in renewables and energy storage.

這些新設施都將建在現有的燃煤電廠內，並在這些機組退役後提供所需的可調度發電。我們認識到，天然氣在實現淨零排放方面的作用受到廣泛關注。我們相信，天然氣不僅必須成為杜克大學的一部分，而且必須成為我們國家能源轉型策略的一部分，面對來自人工智慧資料中心、晶片製造商和其他經濟發展的前所未有的需求，天然氣仍然是向客戶提供可靠和負擔得起的能源的重要工具，並補充了我們在再生能源和能源儲存方面的大量投資。

As you know, EPA recently released rules that placed limits on certain baseload generation sources. While the state of this rule will soon be in the hands of the courts, we will continue to advocate for solutions to reliably and affordably serve the growing energy needs of our customers and communities. As we step into this period of significant infrastructure build for the company, we recently appointed Harry Sideris, President of Duke Energy. As President, Harry has responsibility for all of our electric and gas utilities, including all aspects of operations and regulatory activities.

眾所周知，EPA 最近發布了對某些基載發電源進行限制的規則。雖然這項規則的狀態很快將由法院決定，但我們將繼續倡導解決方案，以可靠且經濟地滿足客戶和社區日益增長的能源需求。隨著我們進入公司基礎設施建設的重要時期，我們最近任命 Harry Sideris 為杜克能源總裁。身為總裁，Harry 負責我們所有的電力和天然氣公用事業，包括營運和監管活動的所有方面。

Harry is a 28-year company veteran and has an exceptional track record of accomplishment and leadership across many functions. He began his career in generation, led environmental health and safety, served as the President of our Florida utility and most recently led transmission, distribution and customer operations, including economic development. Harry is a trusted member of the executive leadership team and in his new role, he remains committed to delivering value to our customers and our investors. I'm pleased to introduce him for the first time on an earnings call and his new role as President.

Harry 是一位在公司工作了 28 年的老將，在許多職能領域都擁有卓越的成就和領導能力。他的職業生涯始於發電行業，領導環境健康和安全，擔任我們佛羅裡達公用事業公司的總裁，最近領導輸電、配電和客戶運營，包括經濟發展。哈利是執行領導團隊中值得信賴的成員，在新的職位上，他仍然致力於為我們的客戶和投資者創造價值。我很高興在財報電話會議上首次介紹他以及他作為總裁的新角色。

And with that, Harry, I'll turn it over to you to go through the jurisdictional highlights.

說完這些，哈利，我將把話題交給你討論司法管轄權的要點。

Thank you, Lynn, for the introduction. I'm excited for the new role and look forward to leading our utilities and operations through this important time in our energy transition. Turning to Slide 6. Meeting our customers' expectations requires collaboration with regulators, policymakers and other stakeholders, and we continue to make great progress across our jurisdictions.

謝謝 Lynn 的介紹。我對這個新角色感到非常興奮，並期待著帶領我們的公用事業和營運度過能源轉型的這個重要時期。轉到投影片 6。

Starting with South Carolina, Hearings begin May 20 in our Duke Energy Carolinas rate case. Since our last rate case in 2018, our rate base has increased by almost $2 billion, driven by investments to improve reliability and resiliency and meet the growing energy needs of our customers. We expect new rates to be implemented August 1.

從南卡羅來納州開始，我們的杜克能源卡羅來納州利率案聽證會將於 5 月 20 日開始。自 2018 年我們上次討論費率案例以來，我們的費率基礎增加了近 20 億美元，這得益於提高可靠性和彈性以及滿足客戶日益增長的能源需求的投資。我們預計新利率將於8月1日實施。

Shifting to Florida. In April, we filed our next 3-year multiyear rate plan that will begin in 2025. The plan includes grid investments to enhance reliability, decrease outages and shorten restoration times, building on Duke Energy's Florida's best reliability year in over a decade in 2023. The filing also covers investments to add new solar and battery as well as improve the efficiency of our current generation assets. Even with the requested base rate increases, we expect overall customer bills to decrease in 2025 as fuel under recovery, storm restoration costs and legacy purchase power contracts expire at the end of the year.

轉移到佛羅裡達。今年 4 月，我們提交了下一個為期 3 年的多年期費率計劃，該計劃將於 2025 年開始實施。即使要求提高基本費率，我們預計 2025 年客戶整體帳單仍將下降，因為燃料回收、風暴恢復成本以及傳統購電合約將在年底到期。

In Indiana, we filed our first rate case in 4 years in April. Since our last case, we've invested more than $1.6 billion to support the state's growing population and increase the resiliency and security of the grid. The case includes a forward test year and 2 rate step-ups starting in the first quarter of 2025, smoothing the impact to customers.

在印第安納州，我們於四月提起了四年來第一起此類案件。自上一個案例以來，我們已經投資超過 16 億美元來支持該州不斷增長的人口並提高電網的彈性和安全性。 該案例包括一個遠期測試年和從 2025 年第一季開始的兩次利率上調，以減輕對客戶的影響。

And finally, Piedmont Natural Gas also filed a rate case in North Carolina in April. The request covers significant infrastructure investments to comply with federal safety regulations, enhance the customer experience and provide safe, reliable natural gas service. As part of the filing, Piedmont is also requesting concurrent rate reductions for pass-through natural gas costs, which will help mitigate the impacts to the customer bill.

最後，皮埃蒙特天然氣公司（Piedmont Natural Gas）也於四月在北卡羅來納州提起了費率訴訟。該請求涵蓋重大基礎設施投資，以遵守聯邦安全法規、增強客戶體驗並提供安全可靠的天然氣服務。作為申請的一部分，皮埃蒙特還要求同時降低轉嫁天然氣成本，這將有助於減輕對客戶帳單的影響。

We plan to implement interim rates November 1 with the final order expected in January. We've made great progress in the first quarter, advancing rate cases and fleet transition projects across our footprint. As we embark on this period of significant infrastructure build, we have confidence that our investment plan will deliver sustainable value to shareholders and 5% to 7% earnings growth.

我們計劃於 11 月 1 日實施臨時費率，並預計於 1 月頒布最終命令。我們在第一季取得了巨大進展，推進了我們業務範圍內的費率案例和機隊轉型專案。隨著我們進入這一重大基礎設施建設時期，我們相信我們的投資計劃將為股東帶來可持續的價值和 5% 至 7% 的盈利增長。

With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 7. Our first quarter reported and adjusted earnings per share were $1.44. This compares to reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.01 and $1.20 last year.

謝謝，哈利，大家早安。轉到投影片 7。相比之下，去年報告和調整後的每股收益分別為 1.01 美元和 1.20 美元。

Within the segments, Electric Utilities & Infrastructure was up $0.29 compared to last year. Growth was driven by rate increases, higher volumes and improved weather. Partially offsetting these items were higher interest expense and depreciation on a growing asset base. As a reminder, residential decoupling was in effect for both of our North Carolina utilities this quarter, which moderated the impact of a mild winter in the Carolinas.

在所有細分領域中，電力公用事業和基礎設施比去年上漲了 0.29 美元。成長的動力來自於運費上漲、運輸量增加和天氣好轉。部分抵銷這些項目的是不斷增長的資產基礎帶來的更高的利息支出和折舊。提醒一下，本季我們北卡羅來納州的兩家公用事業公司都實施了住宅脫鉤，減輕了卡羅來納州溫和冬季的影響。

Moving to Gas Utilities & Infrastructure, results were flat compared to last year.

至於天然氣公用事業和基礎設施，業績與去年相比持平。

And finally, the Other segment was down $0.05, primarily due to higher interest expense. With a strong start to the year, we're on track to deliver on our 2024 EPS guidance range.

最後，其他部門下降了 0.05 美元，主要原因是利息支出增加。由於今年開局強勁，我們預計將實現 2024 年每股收益預期範圍。

Turning to Slide 8. We were pleased to see solid growth in weather-normal volumes this quarter versus last year. Customer growth remains robust in our jurisdictions, led by the Carolinas and Florida, which both grew 2.4%. We're also encouraged to see improving residential usage across our jurisdictions. Commercial and industrial volumes were up over 1% versus last year, driven by strength in the commercial sector.

轉到幻燈片 8。我們所轄區域的客戶成長依然強勁，其中卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州最為強勁，均成長了 2.4%。我們也很高興看到我們轄區的住宅使用率不斷提高。受商業部門強勁成長的推動，商業和工業產量較去年同期成長了 1% 以上。

We are closely monitoring economic trends and remain in regular conversations with our largest customers. Notably, these customers continue to convey expectations for growing power needs in the second half of the year. Combined with new economic development projects coming online, we expect growth to accelerate throughout the year.

我們密切關注經濟趨勢，並與我們最大的客戶保持定期溝通。 值得注意的是，這些客戶持續表達對下半年電力需求成長的預期。結合新的經濟發展項目的上線，我們預計全年成長將會加速。

Turning to Slide 9. The impact of economic development activity in our jurisdictions cannot be overstated. We are gearing up to serve up to 18,000 gigawatt hours of additional load from these projects in 2028. This is up 2,000 gigawatt hours from the projection we just shared in February, demonstrating the strength of our economic development pipeline.

轉到投影片 9。我們正準備在 2028 年透過這些項目提供高達 18,000 吉瓦時的額外負荷。

As a reminder, we take a risk-adjusted approach to our forecast and generally only include the most mature and committed projects. We've included a few photos that showcased the impressive size and scale of the construction activity underway. Pictured at the top of the slide is a substation that will serve Wolfspeed's $5 billion semiconductor manufacturing facility in North Carolina. The new factory will bring about 1,800 jobs to the state. We've recently energized the initial transformer bank in the substation, and Wolfspeed expects the facility to begin production by early next year.

提醒一下，我們採用風險調整方法進行預測，通常只包括最成熟和最堅定的項目。我們附上了幾張照片來展示正在進行的施工活動的驚人規模。幻燈片頂部的圖片是為 Wolfspeed 位於北卡羅來納州的價值 50 億美元的半導體製造工廠提供服務的變電站。新工廠將為該州帶來約1,800個就業機會。我們最近為變電站中的初始變壓器組通電，Wolfspeed 預計該設施將於明年年初開始生產。

This project and others across many sectors, including batteries, data centers, EVs and pharmaceuticals to name a few, are making tangible progress and will provide meaningful load growth in our service territories. We operate in some of the most attractive jurisdictions for both economic development and customer migration, which underpins our confidence in our 2% volume growth forecast in 2024 and 1.5% to 2% growth rate over the 5-year planning horizon.

該專案以及其他涉及電池、資料中心、電動車和製藥等多個領域的專案正在取得切實進展，並將在我們的服務區域內帶來有意義的負載成長。我們在一些對經濟發展和客戶遷移最具吸引力的司法管轄區開展業務，這增強了我們對 2024 年 2% 的銷售成長預測和 5 年規劃期間 1.5% 至 2% 的成長率的信心。

Turning to Slide 10. We recognize the importance of a strong balance sheet as we execute one of the sector's largest capital programs. We are on track to achieve 14% FFO to debt by the end of this year, which represents 100 basis points of cushion to our Moody's downgrade threshold. The biggest driver of our FFO improvement is the implementation of the North Carolina rate cases, which add nearly $700 million of annual revenues. Combined with the collection of remaining deferred fuel balances, monetization of tax credits and programmatic equity issuances, we have clear line of sight to achieving our target.

轉到投影片 10。我們預計在今年年底前實現 14% 的 FFO 與債務比率，這相當於為我們的穆迪降級門檻提供了 100 個基點的緩衝。我們 FFO 改善的最大驅動力是北卡羅來納州稅率案例的實施，這增加了近 7 億美元的年收入。結合剩餘的遞延燃料餘額的收取、稅收抵免的貨幣化和計劃性股票發行，我們清楚地看到了實現目標的前景。

As disclosed in February, we expect to issue $500 million of common equity annually over the 5-year plan via our DRIP and ATM programs. We're off to a great start, having priced just over $100 million year-to-date. We also completed approximately 65% of our planned, long-term debt issuances for 2024 in the first quarter, which helps to derisk our plan. We've raised $4.6 billion in long-term debt with an average interest rate of 5.19% and an average tenure of 13 years.

正如二月所披露的那樣，我們預計在五年計劃內每年透過 DRIP 和 ATM 計劃發行 5 億美元的普通股。我們開局很好，今年迄今的定價已超過 1 億美元。我們也在第一季完成了 2024 年計畫長期債務發行的約 65%，這有助於降低我們計畫的風險。我們已籌集 46 億美元的長期債務，平均利率為 5.19%，平均期限為 13 年。

We've been strategic in our approach, reducing floating rate exposure amid a rising rate environment and further diversifying our investor base with the euro offering in April. As we have demonstrated this quarter and over many years, we are committed to our credit ratings and a strong balance sheet as we execute our growth objectives.

我們採取了策略性的做法，在利率上升的環境下減少浮動利率風險，並透過四月發行歐元進一步實現投資者基礎的多樣化。正如我們本季以及多年來所展示的那樣，在實現成長目標的過程中，我們致力於維持我們的信用評級和強勁的資產負債表。

Moving to Slide 11. We remain confident in delivering our 2024 earnings guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10 and growth of 5% to 7% through 2028. We operate in constructive, growing jurisdictions, and the fundamentals of our business are stronger than ever. We are well positioned to achieve our growth targets for the year, which combined with our attractive dividend yields provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.

移至第 11 張投影片。我們已準備好實現今年的成長目標，再加上我們誘人的股息殖利率，我們將為股東帶來頗具吸引力的風險調整回報。

With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

現在，我們將開通熱線來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自古根漢合夥人公司的 Shar Pourreza。

Obviously, you guys reaffirm that 1.5% to 2% low growth assumptions, but also kind of concurrently kind of increase the economic development activities. I mean, obviously, we've seen several of your peers raise low growth assumptions, kind of levered to that C&I customer backdrop, including large data centers coming into their states. I guess, Lynn, what's the trigger point and timing on when you will maybe reguide around load growth, which to us seems conservative, especially in the Carolinas? And could the opportunities kind of be accretive to your EPS growth guide like we heard from one of your Southeastern peers?

顯然，你們重申了 1.5% 到 2% 的低成長假設，但同時也增加了經濟發展活動。我的意思是，顯然，我們已經看到你們幾位同行提出了低成長假設，這種假設有點依賴 C&I 客戶的背景，包括大型資料中心進入他們的州。我想，林恩，當您重新指導負荷增長時，觸發點和時間是什麼？這些機會是否能對您的 EPS 成長指南產生增值作用，就像我們從您的一位東南部同行那裡聽到的那樣？

Shar, I'll take that. We continue to be encouraged by the pace of economic development opportunities. I mean every time we do a new load forecast, we see more opportunities. And that's demonstrated by what we showed this morning. We typically update our full financial plan in February, right? And we feel like updating load without updating the CapEx to support the load might be a bit disconnected and not so the full picture. But we do see clearly more tailwinds than headwinds as we look at growth over time. All of this sign is a good -- all of this points to a good sign of long-term EPS growth.

莎爾，我接受。經濟發展機會的步伐不斷鼓舞著我們。我的意思是，每次我們做新的負載預測時，我們都會看到更多的機會。我們今天早上所展示的內容就證明了這一點。我們通常會在二月更新我們的完整財務計劃，對嗎？我們覺得，在不更新資本支出以支持負載的情況下更新負載可能會有點脫節，而且不能反映全貌。但從長期來看，我們確實看到順風明顯多於逆風。所有這些跡像都是好的——所有這些都表明長期每股收益成長的良好跡象。

I would point to on the EPS side of things, load growth, the capital opportunities for the energy transition. All this gives us a high degree of confidence in our 5% to 7%. And as we look throughout the plan, probably later in the plan, pushes us in the higher end of the range. But it gives us the opportunity if all this transpires. We are taking a very calculated position on our load growth, and we want to be smart about updating the plan prematurely before we put the capital to support the new load.

我想指出的是，從 EPS 方面來看，負載成長是能源轉型的資本機會。所有這些都讓我們對 5% 到 7% 的目標充滿信心。當我們回顧整個計劃時，可能在計劃的後期，我們會將目標推向更高的範圍。但如果這一切發生，這將給我們機會。我們對負載成長採取了非常慎重的立場，我們希望在投入資金支持新負載之前明智地提前更新計劃。

Shar, one thing I might add is just to give you a metric on this, 1,000 gigawatt hours represents 0.1% increase in our load growth. So we are trending to the higher end of that 1.5% to 2%, and we'll continue to update you during '24, if we see more opportunities materialize. And as Brian said, we'll do a comprehensive update in February. I think the other thing I would note, given the size of our company, I believe the move from about 0.5% load growth to 1.5% to 2% is quite strong, and we're proud of that, and we'll keep going. But I think that metric of 1,000 gigawatt hours being about 0.1% should help you get a sense of how we're moving.

Shar，我想補充的一點是，給你一個衡量標準，1,000 千兆瓦時代表我們的負載成長率為 0.1%。因此，我們趨向於 1.5% 到 2% 的較高水平，如果我們看到更多機會出現，我們將在 24 年內繼續向您更新最新情況。正如布萊恩所說，我們將在二月進行全面更新。我想指出的另一件事是，考慮到我們公司的規模，我相信負載成長率從約 0.5% 提高到 1.5% 到 2% 是相當強勁的，我們對此感到自豪，我們會繼續努力。但我認為，1,000 千兆瓦時約佔 0.1% 這項指標應該可以幫助您了解我們的發展。

Got it. Okay. So as we head into February's update. I appreciate that. And then maybe just one more question for Brian. Brian, obviously, you guys have kind of a perpetual preferred, which has a dividend reset coming. I think in September, what's the plan, I guess, to refinance it? What's embedded in your numbers?

知道了。好的。因此我們即將迎來二月的更新。我很感激。然後也許我還有一個問題想問布萊恩。布萊恩，顯然，你們有一種永久優先股，即將進行股息重置。我想九月的再融資計畫是怎麼樣的？你的數字中蘊含了什麼？

No, it's a good question, Shar. And it's clearly in our financing plan to address that perpetual preferred. And we're going to look at all the options available and preserving the balance sheet support that, that product presents as well as what the market is paying for. We saw some deals yesterday that are encouraging, we'll look at those and other tools as we move towards September. But repricing the preferred at the current rates, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. So we're looking at ways to take that out and use other tools.

不，這是個好問題，莎爾。我們的融資計畫顯然是為了解決永久優先股的問題。我們將研究所有可用的選項，並保留該產品所提供的資產負債表支援以及市場所支付的費用。我們昨天看到了一些令人鼓舞的交易，我們將在九月來臨時關注這些交易和其他工具。但以當前利率重新定價優先股，並沒有太大意義。因此，我們正在尋找方法來消除這種情況並使用其他工具。

Okay. Perfect. Fantastic, guys. And Harry, congrats on your first of many earnings calls. Big congrats.

好的。完美的。太棒了，夥計們。哈利，恭喜你第一次召開財報電話會議。非常恭喜。

Thanks, Shar.

謝謝，Shar。

Thank you, Shar.

謝謝你，莎爾。

Our next question comes from David Arcaro of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的戴維·阿卡羅。

You could elaborate -- I'm wondering if you -- how you're thinking about the new EPA rules and how that could affect some of your IRPs, just longer-term resource plans that are in flight right now?

您可以詳細說明一下——我想知道您是否——您如何看待新的 EPA 規則，以及這些規則將如何影響您的一些 IRP，也就是目前正在進行的長期資源計劃？

I'll take that. To your point, we're looking very carefully at the rule, but also looking very carefully at how we meet the growth in our service territory, continue to decarbonize and maintain an eye on affordability and reliability. We have CPCNs in front of North Carolina right now. And those processes will continue over the course of 2024. They're very public. We think that will be a great opportunity to really present the case for how we can meet this load within all of the above strategy. We are also in the process of doing an IRP in Indiana. And we'll reflect the implications of the new rule in that IRP.

我接受。正如您所說，我們正在非常仔細地研究規則，同時也在非常仔細地研究如何滿足我們服務領域的成長，繼續脫碳，並專注於可負擔性和可靠性。我們現在在北卡羅來納州前面有 CPCN。這些進程將在 2024 年持續進行。我們認為這將是一個絕佳的機會來真正展示我們如何在上述所有策略中滿足這一負荷。我們也正在印第安納州開展 IRP。我們將在該 IRP 中反映新規則的含義。

So I would indicate that we're continuing to study what this might mean. We're a week into it, looking at everything from gas to co-firing to conversions, all with an eye on reliability and affordability and recognizing the meeting of load, addressing an aging coal fleet is a part of the formula that we'll consider. I think litigation is something that's also being looked at across the industry, because there are a number of questions within the rule, and we're evaluating that as well.

因此我想表示我們將繼續研究這可能意味著什麼。我們已經進行了一周的研究，從天然氣到混燒到轉換的所有問題，都著眼於可靠性和可負擔性，並認識到滿足負荷，解決老化的煤炭車隊是我們將考慮的方案的一部分。我認為訴訟也是整個行業正在關注的問題，因為該規則中存在許多問題，我們也正在對此進行評估。

Got it. And then just following up on the topic of load growth and kind of what CapEx could come from that. Could you maybe elaborate on your thinking there as you do find more economic development opportunities and potential upside to the load growth forecast, what does that mean for your capital plan in terms of could there be further generation, but also maybe on the T&D side, if you could elaborate on how you're thinking about what T&D expansions and upgrades might come out of what we're seeing in longer-term load growth increases?

知道了。然後繼續討論負載成長以及由此可能產生的資本支出問題。您能否詳細說明您的想法，因為您確實發現了更多的經濟發展機會和負載增長預測的潛在上升空間，這對您的資本計劃意味著什麼，是否會有進一步的發電，但也許在輸配電方面，您能否詳細說明一下您如何看待我們在長期負載增長中看到的輸配電擴張和升級可能帶來什麼？

No, David. This is Brian. I'll take that. It's a really good question and one we evaluate every single day here in Duke Energy. As we find a way to serve our customers in a reliable and affordable way, we know we're going to need more resources, because we're seeing more demand on the system. And it's -- to your point, it's not just generation. It's T&D investments, too. And the teams across the Duke Energy evaluate how we're going to put the loads in the best places as well as when we talk about economic development opportunities, we present customers with the places that have generation capacity and T&D capacity to support them or the modest upgrades that we need.

不，大衛。這是布萊恩。我接受。這是一個非常好的問題，我們杜克能源公司每天都會對此進行評估。當我們找到一種可靠且經濟實惠的方式為客戶提供服務時，我們知道我們將需要更多的資源，因為我們看到對系統的需求越來越大。正如您所說，這不僅僅是一代人的問題。這也是輸配電投資。杜克能源公司的團隊會評估我們如何將負載放置在最佳位置，以及當我們談到經濟發展機會時，我們會向客戶提供具有發電能力和輸配電能力的地方來支援他們，或提供我們所需的適度升級。

As we look out in time, we see an expanding CapEx profile. We've guided $73 billion for 5 years, but over the 10-year plan, $170 billion to $180 billion. And that contemplates higher resource needs to serve this increasing load. And we're going to do so that drives growth for our investors as well as preserves a strong balance sheet. And I think like I said, to Shar's question, we want to bring all this together in our next financial update as we roll the plan to 2029 that will have a fulsome view of both capital, load demand as well as how we're going to finance all of that.

隨著時間的推移，我們看到資本支出狀況不斷擴大。我們五年的指導金額是 730 億美元，但十年計劃將達到 1700 億至 1800 億美元。這意味著需要更多的資源來滿足不斷增加的負載。我們將這樣做，為我們的投資者帶來成長，並保持強勁的資產負債表。我想就像我對 Shar 的問題所說的那樣，我們希望在下一次財務更新中將所有這些整合在一起，因為我們將計劃推向 2029 年，這將對資本、負荷需求以及我們將如何為所有這些提供資金有一個全面的了解。

David, the one thing I would add. We've been really successful over the last many years in developing modern regulatory mechanisms for grid investment. And those grid investments are running in every jurisdiction to really prepare for this generation transition, and that will continue. So if you look at our next 5 years, largely reinvestments. And so we'll keep that going at a pace that makes sense.

大衛，我想補充一點。過去多年以來，我們在開發電網投資現代監管機制方面取得了巨大成功。這些電網投資正在各個司法管轄區內進行，為這一代際轉型做好準備，而且這種情況還會持續下去。因此，如果你看一下我們未來五年的情況，你會發現大部分都是再投資。因此，我們將繼續以合理的速度推進這項進程。

And just to emphasize Brian's point, we have such a wealth of opportunity here in both generation and grid investment that we see sustained growth out of our jurisdictions in a very constructive way, delivering returns to shareholders over a long period of time. So we're excited about what this growth potential represents.

為了強調布萊恩的觀點，我們在發電和電網投資方面擁有如此豐富的機會，我們看到我們的管轄範圍內以非常建設性的方式持續增長，並在長期內為股東帶來回報。因此，我們對這種成長潛力所代表的意義感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from Durgesh Chopra with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra。

I just had 2 clarification questions. First, can you remind in North Carolina, if any sort of intertwinings between the CPCN process and your IRPs? And then second, the CPCN ads Will that be incremental to your current CapEx plan? Or is that already incorporated into the current CapEx plan?

我只想澄清兩個問題。首先，您能否提醒一下北卡羅來納州，CPCN 流程和您的 IRP 之間是否存在任何交織？其次，CPCN 廣告是否會對您目前的資本支出計畫產生增量影響？或者這已經納入當前的資本支出計劃了嗎？

So Harry, you want to talk about the CPCN and IRP process in the Carolinas. And Durgesh, I'll take the second question, those CPCN investments are in the capital plan.

那麼 Harry，你想談談卡羅來納州的 CPCN 和 IRP 流程。杜爾格甚，我來回答第二個問題，這些 CPCN 投資都在資本計畫中。

Yes. So Durgesh, we're in the process of our CIRP (sic) [IRP] proceedings. Well, we expect a hearing in July in North Carolina and in South Carolina in September, and we expect an order later this year in December and November for each of those states. And we proposed 3 different pathways, Path 1, Path 2 and Path 3, with the preferred path being Path. This is showing a 2-gigawatt increase from our supplemental filing in January from our previous filing. We're still focused on making sure that we have an affordable and reliable plan for the customers in North Carolina while meeting our needs for our carbon reductions. The plans still show that we're going to be out of coal by 2035.

是的。所以 Durgesh，我們正在進行 CIRP（原文如此）[IRP] 程式。我們預計北卡羅來納州將於 7 月舉行聽證會，南卡羅來納州將於 9 月舉行聽證會，並預計這兩個州將於今年 12 月和 11 月分別頒布命令。我們提出了 3 條不同的路徑，路徑 1、路徑 2 和路徑 3，其中首選路徑為路徑。這顯示，與我們 1 月提交的補充文件相比，數量增加了 2 千兆瓦。我們仍然致力於確保為北卡羅來納州的客戶提供經濟實惠且可靠的計劃，同時滿足我們減少碳排放的需求。該計劃仍然表明，到 2035 年我們將耗盡煤炭。

And it's adding an additional resources, particularly solar and batteries and new gas as well. We've been through some of the hearings and the proceedings will continue this summer, but we feel very comfortable in what we're putting forth to the commissions and look forward to defending our case and talking through it with stakeholders.

它還增加了額外的資源，特別是太陽能、電池和新天然氣。我們已經參加了一些聽證會，聽證程序將在今年夏天繼續進行，但我們對向委員會提出的建議感到非常滿意，並期待為我們的案件辯護並與利益相關者進行討論。

And Durgesh, on the CPCNs, we would expect the IRP hearings to occur and the CPCN hearings to follow. So the time line that Harry just outlined would have all of this in front of the commission in the second half of this year. And so we'll keep you informed every step of the way.

杜爾格甚 (Durgesh)，關於 CPCN，我們預計 IRP 聽證會將舉行，隨後還將舉行 CPCN 聽證會。因此，按照哈利剛才提出的時間表，所有這些問題將在今年下半年提交給委員會。因此，我們會隨時向您通報進度。

Awesome. Just quickly, Lynn, just though, are the IRPs incremental to the CPCN filings, the gigawatts that you're proposing? I'm thinking the answer is yes.

驚人的。 Lynn，請問一下，IRP 是否是針對 CPCN 申請的增量，也就是您所提議的千兆瓦？我認為答案是肯定的。

Durgesh, well, the way this works is the IRP is a multiyear view of generation. And it includes renewables and batteries and energy efficiency, demand response, the entire collection of resources necessary to meet load. The CPCN is a process to achieve approval of unique and discrete assets. So these gas plants that are included in the IRP go through a separate proceeding so that we can share cost estimates and the time line for when we would build those assets. So you should think about the filings as complementary.

杜爾格甚 (Durgesh)，嗯，這個工作方式是 IRP 是一種多年的世代觀。它包括再生能源、電池、能源效率、需求響應以及滿足負載所需的全部資源集合。 CPCN 是獲得獨特和離散資產批准的過程。因此，這些包含在 IRP 中的天然氣工廠要經過單獨的程序，以便我們可以分享成本估算和建造這些資產的時間表。因此您應該將這些文件視為互補的。

The next question comes from Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.

下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Anthony Crowdell。

Just I guess if I could -- you talked about earlier of maybe the load growth is more back-end loaded. You guys have updated on the fourth quarter call. And I guess, if I could think of that and maybe how that maybe translates into earnings growth. Is the balance sheet where you'd like it to be? Your target is 14% at the end of '24, you believe you'll be there. And I know the company is already focused on the balance sheet. But as we think maybe earnings potential is stronger in the back end of the plan, would that be an opportunity to give yourself more cushion or you're happy with where you're targeting at the end of '24?

我只是猜想如果可以的話——您之前談到也許負載增長更多的是後端負載。你們已經更新了第四季的電話會議狀況。我想，如果我能想到這一點，也許就能想到這將如何轉化為獲利成長。資產負債表是否符合您的期望？您的目標是在 24 年底實現 14%，您相信自己能夠實現這個目標。我知道公司已經把重點放在資產負債表上了。但是，我們認為該計劃的後端盈利潛力可能更大，這是否是一個給自己更多緩衝的機會，或者您對 24 年底的目標感到滿意？

That's a good question, Anthony. And as we've mentioned in the Q4 call, 14% FFO for 2024, 14% plus as we look out in time. So we're not going to stay put at 14%. We're going to continue to improve it over time. And guiding through that, we've got the benefit of the North Carolina rate cases this year. Next year, we'll have the benefit of all the other jurisdictions, Florida, Indiana, Piedmont, South Carolina, all these rate actions are underway that will continue to support top line growth, which also then supports the credit. And as we look out in the plan, I think the potential to earn at the higher end of the range also gives us opportunity to continue to strengthen the balance sheet. So I think we're going to take a balanced approach that provides growth for investors as well as protect a strong balance sheet over time.

這是個好問題，安東尼。正如我們在第四季度電話會議上提到的，2024 年的 FFO 為 14%，如果放眼未來，數字還將增加 14% 以上。所以我們不會將此比例停留在 14%。我們會隨著時間的推移不斷改進它。在此指導下，我們今年獲得了北卡羅來納州利率案件的收益。明年，我們將受益於所有其他司法管轄區，佛羅裡達州、印第安納州、皮埃蒙特、南卡羅來納州，所有這些利率行動正在進行中，將繼續支持營收成長，進而支持信貸成長。當我們審視這個計劃時，我認為在較高範圍內盈利的潛力也為我們提供了繼續加強資產負債表的機會。因此我認為我們將採取平衡的方法，為投資者提供成長，同時長期保護強勁的資產負債表。

The next question is from Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的卡莉·達文波特。

Maybe just as you think about your capital plans, both from an investment and the grid perspective and also on new generation. Have you been seeing anything -- any constraints from a supply chain perspective, whether it's in procuring kind of generation kits or transmission equipment that we should be keeping in mind?

也許就像您考慮您的資本計劃一樣，既從投資和電網的角度，也從新一代的角度。您是否看到任何情況——從供應鏈角度來看，有任何限制嗎，無論是在採購發電設備還是傳輸設備時，我們都應該牢記這一點？

Carly, thanks for that question. As we've worked the capital plan and all the supply chain challenges since COVID, it's kind of been issue by issue. I would say a couple of years ago, solar panels was a hot area, and we entered into framework agreements over a long period of time to secure our solar panel needs. We also had transformers last year that was a really hot spot. It's still a tight market, but we now are going through these with the size and scale of Duke Energy and really partnering with OEMs on how we're going to work with them multiple years in a row.

卡莉，謝謝你提問。自從新冠疫情以來，我們一直在製定資本計劃並應對所有供應鏈挑戰，而這些問題都是一個個解決的。我想說，幾年前，太陽能電池板是一個熱門領域，我們簽訂了長期的框架協議以確保我們的太陽能電池板需求。去年我們還推出了變形金剛，這是一個非常熱門的話題。這仍然是一個緊張的市場，但我們現在正利用杜克能源的規模來解決這些問題，並與原始設備製造商進行真正的合作，討論如何連續多年與他們合作。

And as we look to build generation at scale, we're looking at areas like EPC contractors, turbine manufacturers and other components to support the generation build. And we're going to take a similar approach. But I think what we've learned is that we must partner with 1 or 2 suppliers over multiple years to give them certainty on the revenue side, give us certainty on the components and labor on our side. So it's been a successful model and it's one we want to replicate as we advance the transition.

當我們尋求大規模建造發電廠時，我們正在尋找 EPC 承包商、渦輪機製造商和其他組件來支援發電廠的建設。我們將採取類似的做法。但我認為，我們所學到的是，我們必須在多年內與 1 到 2 家供應商合作，以確保他們在收入方面有確定性，並確保我們在零件和勞動力方面有確定性。所以這是一個成功的模式，我們希望在推進轉型的過程中複製這個模式。

And I would add, Carly, it is getting better, but we've been able to put some processes in place using our scale and to be able to preplan and preorder to really make sure that we have what we need when we need it to keep our investment plans going. And as we look forward, we're going to continue to do that and partner like Brian mentioned, with our vendors to be able to stay ahead of the curve. But things are getting better, and we're staying ahead of the curve there.

我想補充一點，卡莉，情況正在好轉，但我們已經能夠利用我們的規模來實施一些流程，並且能夠預先計劃和預訂，以真正確保我們在需要時擁有所需的一切，以保證我們的投資計劃得以繼續進行。展望未來，我們將繼續這樣做，並像 Brian 提到的那樣與我們的供應商合作，以保持領先地位。但情況正在好轉，我們仍處於領先地位。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up on the balance sheet question. Can you just update us on where you currently stand? And then just relative to the walk that you sort of laid out last quarter, are any of the buckets that bridge the gap of getting to that 14% FFO to debt level changing at all relative to what we saw last quarter?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後也許只是對資產負債表問題進行快速跟進。您能否向我們介紹一下您目前的情況？那麼相對於您上個季度製定的方向，相對於我們上個季度看到的情況，實現 14% FFO 與債務水平的差距的任何指標是否有所變化？

Carly, we really update the FFO once a year, but we are making progress with the rate cases from North Carolina being the largest single driver of improving FFO year-over-year. Deferred fuel recovery is also on track. Those rates were updated, the last one happened in December for DEP North Carolina. So all the deferred fuel is on track to be fully recovered by the end of this year. We're issuing the equity, the ATM and DRIP. We did $100 million in Q1, and we'll continue that throughout the year to get to $500 million by the end of the year. And lastly, on the second half of the year, we expect to monetize tax credits from the IRA and that's the last component. So we're tracking exactly where we wanted to be at the end of the first quarter and is looking clear in sight.

卡莉，我們實際上每年更新一次 FFO，但我們正在取得進展，北卡羅來納州的利率案例是逐年提高 FFO 的最大單一驅動力。延期燃料回收工作也正在按計畫進行。這些費率已更新，最近一次更新是 12 月在北卡羅來納州的 DEP 進行的。因此，所有延期的燃料都將在今年年底前完全回收。我們正在發行股票、ATM 和 DRIP。我們在第一季的銷售額為 1 億美元，我們將繼續保持這一勢頭，到年底達到 5 億美元。最後，今年下半年，我們預計將 IRA 的稅收抵免貨幣化，這是最後一個組成部分。因此，我們正精確地追蹤我們在第一季末想要達到的目標，而且前景十分清晰。

And our next question is from Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jeremy Tonet。

I just wanted to follow up with the proposed gas additions as you laid out there. Just wondering how you see, I guess, incremental gas flowing into your territories given the difficulties we've seen in building new pipelines in different parts of the country? So just wondering how you think about this at that point?

我只是想跟進一下您所提出的天然氣添加建議。我只是想知道，考慮到我們在全國各地建造新管道所遇到的困難，您如何看待增量天然氣流入貴國領土？所以只是想知道您當時是如何看待這個問題的？

Jeremy, thank you. Making sure that we have adequate supply for any new source of generation is a part of the assignment. And so we have been at work over the course of 2023 and putting in place agreements that we believe will not only continue to strongly support the existing gas in our area, but also allow us to expand. And this is something that is closely monitored by the North Carolina Commission and will be by Indiana as well as we continue diversification there. But we feel like we've got a credible plan in place, and it will be executed over the number of years, fully recognizing that it takes a lot of work with stakeholders to not only build the generation, but working with our partners who are putting pipeline infrastructure in place to make sure that the stakeholder concerns and needs are being met and so we're confident we've got a plan in place we can execute.

傑里米，謝謝你。確保為任何新的發電來源提供充足的供應是我們任務的一部分。因此，我們在 2023 年一直致力於制定協議，我們相信這些協議不僅將繼續大力支持我們地區的現有天然氣，而且還使我們能夠擴大規模。北卡羅來納州委員會正在密切關注這個問題，印第安納州也將密切關注這個問題，我們將繼續在那裡多元化。但我們覺得我們已經制定了一個可靠的計劃，而且它將在未來幾年內得到執行，我們充分認識到，這不僅需要與利益相關者進行大量工作來建設發電廠，而且還需要與我們的合作夥伴合作建立管道基礎設施，以確保滿足利益相關者的關切和需求，因此我們相信我們已經制定了一個可以執行的計劃。

Got it. And then -- maybe just diving into load growth expectations. Just wondering if we could go a little bit further, I think, in the quarter, commercial was up 3.5%, industrials were down 2.5%. If you could touch based on that as well as, I guess, what specific things you see materializing over the balance of the year to accelerate the growth as you talk about a back half of '24 increase?

知道了。然後——也許只是深入研究負載成長預期。我只是想知道我們是否可以再進一步，我認為，在本季度，商業增長了 3.5%，工業下降了 2.5%。如果您能基於此談談的話，我想，當您談到 24 年下半年的增長時，您認為在今年餘下的時間裡將會出現哪些具體的事情來加速增長？

Jeremy, it's a good item to talk through. And on the commercial growth, we saw strength across our regions in the commercial sector. Data center growth was a key driver in that in the quarter, and we expect that to continue throughout the year. On the industrial side of things, we have some plants that are retooling for new products. So they're off-line in the first quarter. And they signaled to us that, look, this is a temporary thing, and we're going to be changing our lines and by mid-Q2, late Q2, we're coming back on in full.

傑里米，這是一個值得討論的好主題。在商業成長方面，我們看到各地區商業領域的實力增強。資料中心的成長是本季的主要推動力，我們預計這種趨勢將持續全年。在工業方面，我們有一些工廠正在重組以生產新產品。所以他們在第一季就離線了。他們向我們發出信號，看，這只是暫時的，我們將改變我們的生產線，到第二季中期或末期，我們將全面恢復。

And we're talking to these customers on a frequent basis to ensure we're there to meet their needs when they need it, and they're tracking on our plan. And we kind of expected this trend to continue because we saw this lag in industrial last year, and we thought by mid-2024, we'd see the tide turn. And then lastly, economic development projects that are coming online in 2024. Those were slated for the second half as well, and those are tracking as planned. So we are on track for our 2% growth in 2024, and we'll keep you apprised as we learn more.

我們會經常與這些客戶溝通，以確保我們能夠在他們需要的時候滿足他們的需求，並且他們會按照我們的計劃行事。我們預計這種趨勢將會持續下去，因為我們去年看到了工業領域的這種滯後，我們認為到 2024 年中期，我們將看到情況的轉變。最後，經濟發展項目將於 2024 年上線。因此，我們預計在 2024 年實現 2% 的增長，一旦了解更多信息，我們會及時告知您。

This concludes the Q&A session. So I'll hand the call back over to Lynn Good for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。因此，我將把電話交還給 Lynn Good，以便她做最後發言。

Thank you, and thanks to all of you. Thanks for your interest in Duke Energy. As always, we're available for follow-on questions, and I appreciate your investment. Thanks for joining today.

謝謝你們，也謝謝你們所有人。感謝您對杜克能源的關注。像往常一樣，我們可以回答後續問題，我感謝您的投入。感謝您今天的加入。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路了。