Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Duke Energy third-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Felicia, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加杜克能源 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫費莉西亞，今天我將成為您的接線生。（操作員說明）

I will now hand you over to your host today, Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations at Duke Energy. Abby, please go ahead.

現在我將把你們交給今天的東道主，杜克能源公司投資者關係副總裁艾比莫辛格 (Abby Motsinger)。艾比，請繼續。

Thank you, Felicia, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's third-quarter 2024 earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair and CEO, along with Harry Sideris, President; and Brian Savoy, CFO.

謝謝你，費莉西亞，大家早安。歡迎閱讀杜克能源 2024 年第三季財報回顧和業務更新。今天主持我們電話會議的是董事長兼執行長 Lynn Good 和總裁 Harry Sideris；和財務長布萊恩·薩沃伊 (Brian Savoy)。

Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論將包括非公認會計準則財務指標和前瞻性資訊的使用。由於今天的資料和杜克能源公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中揭露的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有所不同。今天簡報的附錄包括補充資訊以及非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。

With that, let me turn the call over to Lynn.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給林恩。

Abby, thank you, and good morning, everyone.

艾比，謝謝你，大家早安。

Before I get into the third-quarter results, I wanted to take a moment and recognize the extraordinary hurricane season that we've responded to this year. We've had three consecutive hurricanes -- Debby, Helene and Milton -- each of which devastated parts of our communities. And my heart goes out to all of those who are directly impacted by these catastrophic storms, especially those who lost loved ones, homes or businesses. Harry will provide further detail on our restoration efforts in a moment and Brian will share cost estimates and plans for cost recovery later in the call.

在公佈第三季業績之前，我想花點時間了解我們今年應對的非同尋常的颶風季節。我們已經連續經歷了三場颶風——黛比、海倫和米爾頓——每場颶風都摧毀了我們社區的部分地區。我的心與所有直接受到這些災難性風暴影響的人同在，特別是那些失去親人、家園或企業的人。哈里將立即提供有關我們恢復工作的更多詳細信息，布萊恩將在稍後的電話會議中分享成本估算和成本回收計劃。

But I want to first commend our employees and utility partners, many of whom are personally affected by the devastation for their remarkable response. Our field teams rose to the challenge working around the clock to restore outages as safely and quickly as possible. And our customer care representatives, corporate responders, community relations managers and state president offices worked tirelessly to give customers and policymakers informed.

但我首先要讚揚我們的員工和公用事業合作夥伴，他們中的許多人因出色的應對措施而受到這場災難的親自影響。我們的現場團隊迎接挑戰，晝夜不停地工作，盡可能安全、快速地恢復停電。我們的客戶服務代表、企業回應人員、社區關係經理和州總統辦公室不懈努力，為客戶和政策制定者提供資訊。

I'd also like to thank our state and local leaders, including Governor Cooper, Governor DeSantis and Governor McMaster and officials in our emergency operation centers for their partnership and coordination. I could not be more proud of our teammates and our partners for their unwavering commitment to our customers and communities.

我還要感謝我們的州和地方領導人，包括庫柏州長、德桑蒂斯州長和麥克馬斯特州長以及我們緊急行動中心的官員，感謝他們的合作和協調。我為我們的隊友和合作夥伴對客戶和社區堅定不移的承諾感到無比自豪。

It's important to note that our regulators and policymakers recognize the extraordinary efforts of our company in responding to these events and the feedback we have received has been overwhelmingly positive. We recognize that our work is not done. It will take time for some of our communities to get back on their feet and we'll be with them every step of the way.

值得注意的是，我們的監管機構和政策制定者認識到我們公司在應對這些事件方面所做的非凡努力，並且我們收到的回饋非常積極。我們認識到我們的工作尚未完成。我們的一些社區需要時間才能重新站起來，我們將與他們一路同行。

Turning to quarterly results on slide 5, today, we announced adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 for the third quarter compared to $1.94 last year. Brian will discuss results in more detail but I wanted to highlight a few things influencing this comparison.

今天，轉向幻燈片 5 上的季度業績，我們宣布第三季調整後每股收益為 1.62 美元，而去年為 1.94 美元。布萊恩將更詳細地討論結果，但我想強調一些影響這一比較的因素。

As you know, 2023 was impacted by historically weak weather early in the year and mitigation in the second half of the year. Significant mitigation efforts positively impacted third-quarter 2023 results. Third quarter of 2024 includes the full impact of Hurricane Debby and the mobilization of resources for Hurricane Helene. Helene and Milton will impact the fourth quarter. And for both storms, we're working with preliminary cost estimates, which we will finalize by year-end.

如您所知，2023 年受到年初歷史性疲軟天氣和下半年氣候緩解的影響。重大緩解措施對 2023 年第三季業績產生了正面影響。2024 年第三季包括颶風黛比的全面影響以及颶風海倫的資源調動。海倫和米爾頓將影響第四季。對於這兩次風暴，我們正在進行初步成本估算，並將在年底前完成。

Hurricane costs are largely deferred or capitalized. However, there are a few exceptions, and there's no recovery mechanism for lost revenues. As a result and based on what we know today, we are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range trending to the lower half. We are actively pursuing mitigation measures, some of which will naturally occur because of the resources devoted to the storms, and others, we will trigger through controlled spending through the balance of the year, and we will look for every opportunity without compromising on our commitment to safety and to our customers.

颶風成本大部分是遞延或資本化的。然而，也有一些例外，也沒有收入損失的恢復機制。因此，根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們重申 2024 年指導範圍趨於下半部。我們正在積為了安全和我們的客戶。

As we look ahead to 2025 and beyond, we have strong momentum driven by our track record of constructive regulatory outcomes, including our recent IRP approvals in the Carolinas as well as our robust growth in our attractive jurisdictions. These tailwinds give us confidence in our long-term outlook, and we are reaffirming our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2028, of the midpoint of our 2024 range.

展望 2025 年及以後，我們的建設性監管成果記錄推動了我們強勁的發展勢頭，包括我們最近在卡羅來納州獲得的 IRP 批准以及我們在有吸引力的司法管轄區的強勁增長。這些有利因素讓我們對長期前景充滿信心，我們重申到 2028 年每股收益成長率為 5% 至 7%，即 2024 年範圍的中點。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Harry.

說完，我會把電話轉給哈利。

Thank you, Lynn.

謝謝你，林恩。

Let me begin on slide 6 with our response to the historic storm season we faced over the last few months. The devastation and parts of our service territories, including my hometown of Ashville, North Carolina, was unlike anything we've experienced before. Over the three hurricanes, we assembled more than 20,000 resources from across the US and Canada and restored approximately 5.5 million outages in some of the harshest conditions.

讓我從投影片 6 開始，介紹我們對過去幾個月面臨的歷史性風暴季節的反應。我們的部分服務區域（包括我的家鄉北卡羅來納州阿什維爾）所遭受的破壞與我們以前經歷過的任何事情都不一樣。在這三場颶風中，我們從美國和加拿大各地聚集了 20,000 多個資源，並在一些最惡劣的條件下恢復了約 550 萬次斷電。

In August, Hurricane Debby entered our service territories near the Big Bend region of Florida as a category 1 storm. The system then made its way north through our Carolina service territories, bringing high winds, heavy rain and causing outages for 700,000 customers. We were prepared and restored more than 90% of our customers within 24 hours. One month later, Helene, a category 4 hurricane made landfall on September 26th and impacted every one of our service territories from Florida to Indiana. The storm brought record-breaking rainfall and flooding created landslides and washed out roads and towns.

8 月，颶風黛比作為 1 級風暴進入佛羅裡達州大本德地區附近的我們的服務區域。隨後該系統向北穿過我們卡羅來納州的服務區域，帶來大風和大雨，並導致 70 萬客戶停電。我們在 24 小時內做好了準備並恢復了 90% 以上的客戶。一個月後，4 級颶風海倫於 9 月 26 日登陸，影響了我們從佛羅裡達州到印第安納州的每個服務區域。暴風雨帶來了破紀錄的降雨量，洪水引發了山體滑坡，沖毀了道路和城鎮。

In total, Helene led to approximately 3.5 million outages with the hardest hit areas of Western North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina and the barrier islands of Florida requiring significant infrastructure rebuild. Less than two weeks after Helene, Hurricane Milton, a category 3 hurricane made landfall near Sarasota, Florida. The storm affected the majority of our customers in the state and led to over 1 million outages. The St. Petersburg and Tampa Bay areas experienced the worst of the storm, with rainfall of up to 16 inches in extensive wind damage.

海倫總共導致約 350 萬次斷電，北卡羅來納州西部、南卡羅來納州北部和佛羅裡達州障壁群島等受災最嚴重的地區需要大量基礎設施重建。海倫之後不到兩週，三級颶風米爾頓在佛羅裡達州薩拉索塔附近登陸。這場風暴影響了該州的大多數客戶，並導致超過 100 萬次停電。聖彼得堡和坦帕灣地區經歷了最嚴重的風暴，降雨量高達 16 英寸，造成大規模的風災。

We restored nearly 600,000 customers in 48 hours and 95% of all comers within four days. Our success in responding to storms of this magnitude is due to our strategic preparation ahead of the storms near constant communication with customers and stakeholders and most importantly, the tireless work of our employees and utility partners. Each of our 27,000 Duke Energy employees has a storm role and the response effort is truly all hands on deck.

我們在 48 小時內恢復了近 60 萬名客戶，並在四天內恢復了 95% 的客戶。我們成功應對如此嚴重的風暴，歸功於我們在風暴前的策略準備以及與客戶和利害關係人的持續溝通，最重要的是，我們的員工和公用事業合作夥伴的不懈努力。我們 27,000 名杜克能源員工中的每一位都肩負著應對風暴的職責，我們真正全力以赴做好應對工作。

I want to specifically recognize those on the front line, our crews, who worked night and day to restore power no matter how hard. For example, two Duke Energy line workers hiked through miles of difficult rain to restore power to the Ashville Veterans Hospital following Helene. And this is just one heroic example of hundreds throughout our response. Our team's dedication and commitment, along with close coordination with local, state and federal agencies allowed us to make progress faster than we expected.

我要特別感謝那些在前線的工作人員，我們的工作人員，他們日以繼夜地工作，無論多麼努力地恢復電力。例如，兩名杜克能源公司的線路工人在海倫之後冒著數英里的大雨徒步恢復阿什維爾退伍軍人醫院的電力。這只是我們在應對行動中數百個英雄例子之一。我們團隊的奉獻和承諾，以及與地方、州和聯邦機構的密切協調，使我們能夠比我們預期更快地取得進展。

Another key to our successful response was the grid hardening investments we've deployed across the system. Last year alone, we invested more than $4 billion to harden and modernize the grid. This included targeted undergrounding, call upgrades to steel and concrete in coastal areas and self-healing technology. These investments helped avoid nearly 550,000 customer outages in saving 7 million hours of total outage time across all three storms. Going forward, we'll continue to invest in these infrastructure assets with grid investments accounting for half of our five-year $73 billion capital plan.

我們成功應對的另一個關鍵是我們在整個系統中部署的網格強化投資。光是去年，我們就投資了超過 40 億美元來加強和現代化電網。這包括有針對性的地下工程、沿海地區鋼鐵和混凝土的升級以及自修復技術。這些投資幫助避免了近 55 萬次客戶中斷，在所有三場風暴中節省了 700 萬小時的總中斷時間。展望未來，我們將繼續投資這些基礎設施資產，其中電網投資占我們 730 億美元五年資本計畫的一半。

Turning to slide 7, I'll share progress on our near- and long-term strategic priorities. In the Carolinas, we are pleased to receive constructive approvals on our Carolinas resource plan earlier this month. The North Carolina Utilities Commission issued an order November 1, accepting our settlement with public staff and other parties in its entirety. And on Monday, the Public Service Commission of South Carolina issued a directive approving our IRP and recommended portfolio. We expect an order by November 26. These timely commission approvals allow us to advance our near-term investments while maintaining our share commitment to preserving reliability and affordability as we meet our state's growing demand for power.

轉向投影片 7，我將分享我們近期和長期策略重點的進展。在卡羅萊納州，我們很高興本月早些時候我們的卡羅萊納州資源計劃獲得建設性批准。北卡羅來納州公用事業委員會於 11 月 1 日發布命令，全面接受我們與公職人員和其他各方達成的和解協議。週一，南卡羅來納州公共服務委員會發布了一項指令，以批准我們的 IRP 和建議的投資組合。我們預計 11 月 26 日之前收到訂單。這些及時的委員會批准使我們能夠推進短期投資，同時維持我們的股份承諾，在滿足本州不斷增長的電力需求時保持可靠性和可負擔性。

In Indiana, last week, we filed an updated IRP after an extensive stakeholder engagement process. Our preferred scenario is designed to balance reliability of service and customer affordability. Plans for natural gas assets, renewables and battery storage also add diversity to our generation resources in the state. As in all jurisdictions, there will be a robust review of all planned resource additions. We expect to file a certificate of public convenience and necessity for new and expanded gas generation at Tioga Station in early 2025.

上週，在印第安納州，我們在廣泛的利害關係人參與過程後提交了更新的 IRP。我們的首選方案旨在平衡服務的可靠性和客戶的承受能力。天然氣資產、再生能源和電池儲存計畫也增加了該州發電資源的多樣性。與所有司法管轄區一樣，將對所有計劃的資源添加進行嚴格審查。我們預計在 2025 年初提交 Tioga 站新建和擴建天然氣發電的公共便利性和必要性證明。

Shifting to Florida, in August, the commission approved our settlement agreement with unanimous support. The three-year multiyear rate plan allows for timely recovery of grid, solar and battery investments. New rates will be effective in January. We also reached a comprehensive settlement in our Piedmont Natural Gas, North Carolina rate case in September, resolving all matters in the proceeding. Investments will focus on federal safety regulations, enhancing the customer experience and providing safe, reliable natural gas service. We expect an order in January of 2025.

八月，委員會轉移到佛羅裡達州，一致支持批准了我們的和解協議。為期三年的多年費率計劃可以及時回收電網、太陽能和電池投資。新費率將於一月生效。我們還在 9 月就北卡羅來納州皮埃蒙特天然氣費率案件達成了全面和解，解決了訴訟中的所有問題。投資將重點關注聯邦安全法規、增強客戶體驗並提供安全、可靠的天然氣服務。我們預計將於 2025 年 1 月收到訂單。

With these outcomes, we've settled or received approval for approximately $80 billion of rate base investments across eight rate cases since the start of 2023. We have multiyear rate plans in place in our largest jurisdictions through the end of 2026, with smooth rate impacts to customers and provide line of sight to growth. These outcomes support essential, critical infrastructure investments, acknowledge the rising cost of capital through higher ROEs and allow us to meet our customers' demand for affordable, reliable and increasingly clean energy now and into the future.

憑藉這些成果，自 2023 年初以來，我們已就八個利率案例中約 800 億美元的利率基礎投資達成和解或獲得批准。我們在最大的司法管轄區制定了截至 2026 年底的多年費率計劃，對客戶產生平穩的費率影響，並提供成長的視野。這些成果支持重要、關鍵的基礎設施投資，承認資本成本因更高的股本回報率而上升，並使我們能夠滿足客戶現在和未來對負擔得起、可靠和日益清潔的能源的需求。

With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

接下來，讓我把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Harry, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，哈利，大家早安。

As shown on slide 8, our third-quarter reported and adjusted earnings per share were $1.60 and $1.62, respectively. This compares to reported and adjusted earnings per share of $1.59 and $1.94 last year. Within the segments, Electric Utilities & Infrastructure was down $0.09. O&M was higher in the quarter, largely due to unplanned hurricane restoration costs from Debby and Helene. Results were also impacted by lost revenue from storm-related outages and evacuations. As expected, growth from rate increases in riders were partially offset by higher depreciation and interest expense.

如投影片 8 所示，我們第三季報告和調整後的每股盈餘分別為 1.60 美元和 1.62 美元。相比之下，去年報告和調整後的每股收益分別為 1.59 美元和 1.94 美元。在這些細分市場中，電力公用事業和基礎設施下跌了 0.09 美元。本季 O&M 較高，主要是由於 Debby 和 Helene 的計劃外颶風恢復成本所致。結果也受到風暴相關停電和疏散造成的收入損失的影響。正如預期的那樣，乘客費率上漲帶來的成長被較高的折舊和利息支出部分抵消。

Moving to Gas Utilities & Infrastructure, results were down $0.04 compared to last year, mainly due to higher interest expense and depreciation on a growing asset base. And finally, the other segment was down $0.19, primarily due to a planned higher effective tax rate which reflects tax efficiency efforts realized in 2023. Our 2024 effective tax rate is tracking in line with our full-year guidance of 12% to 14%.

天然氣公用事業和基礎設施方面，業績比去年下降了 0.04 美元，主要是由於利息支出增加以及資產基礎不斷增長帶來的折舊。最後，其他部分下降了 0.19 美元，主要是由於計劃提高有效稅率，這反映了 2023 年實現的稅收效率努力。我們 2024 年的有效稅率與我們 12% 至 14% 的全年指引一致。

Turning to storms, our preliminary total cost estimate for the three hurricanes is between $2.4 billion to $2.9 billion for the year, and we recognized approximately $750 million in the third quarter. Most of these costs will either be deferred for future recovery or relate to capital projects to rebuild portions of the system. We are advancing cost recovery strategies through established mechanisms and have a long track record of constructive outcomes. We're targeting rider recovery in Florida beginning in early 2025 and receipt of securitization proceeds in the Carolinas by the end of next year.

談到風暴，我們對今年三場颶風的初步總成本估計在 24 億至 29 億美元之間，第三季我們確認了約 7.5 億美元。這些成本中的大部分將被推遲到未來的恢復或與重建部分系統的資本項目相關。我們正在透過既定機制推進成本回收策略，並擁有建設性成果的長期記錄。我們的目標是從 2025 年初開始佛羅裡達州的乘客恢復，並在明年底前收到卡羅來納州的證券化收益。

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2024, we expect fourth-quarter adjusted EPS to be higher than last year due to growth from rate increases in the electric and gas segments and higher sales volumes. And as Lynn mentioned, we have cost agility initiatives underway to reduce spending, which will drive O&M lower in the fourth quarter compared to last year. We've outlined our fourth-quarter drivers in the appendix of the presentation.

展望 2024 年剩餘時間，我們預計第四季度調整後每股收益將高於去年，原因是電力和天然氣領域的成長速度以及銷量的增加帶來的成長。正如 Lynn 所提到的，我們正在採取成本敏捷性措施來減少支出，這將導致第四季的營運和維護費用低於去年。我們在簡報的附錄中概述了第四季的驅動因素。

With these drivers in mind, we are reaffirming our 2024 guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10. Based on what we know today, we are turning to the lower half of the range, primarily due to storm impacts, including restoration costs and lost revenues from record customer outages.

考慮到這些驅動因素，我們重申 2024 年指引範圍為 5.85 美元至 6.10 美元。根據我們今天所知，我們正在轉向該範圍的下半部分，這主要是由於風暴的影響，包括恢復成本和創紀錄的客戶中斷造成的收入損失。

Moving to slide 9, third-quarter weather normal volumes increased 1.1% versus last year, driven by strong commercial volumes and residential customer growth. In the Carolinas, we've added approximately 75,000 residential customers year to date, roughly 10,000 more than the same period last year. And in Florida, we've added nearly 30,000 residential customers also outpacing last year.

轉向幻燈片 9，在強勁的商業交易量和住宅客戶成長的推動下，第三季正常天氣交易量較去年增長 1.1%。在卡羅萊納州，我們今年迄今增加了約 75,000 名住宅客戶，比去年同期增加了約 10,000 名。在佛羅裡達州，我們增加了近 30,000 名住宅客戶，數量也超過了去年。

We continue to see robust economic development activity, and in the past month have signed letter agreements for 2 gigawatts of data centers. These agreements are emblematic of conversations we are having with large customers all around our service territories and represent continued advancement of projects in our pipeline. As a result, we've increased the high end of our 2028 economic development forecast to up to 20,000 gigawatt hours of incremental load. This represents a 2,000 gigawatt hour increase since our second-quarter update. As a reminder, we take a risk-adjusted approach as we evaluate which economic development opportunities to include in our forecast.

我們繼續看到強勁的經濟發展活動，並在過去一個月簽署了 2 吉瓦資料中心的信件協議。這些協議象徵著我們與服務區域各地的大客戶進行的對話，也代表了我們管道專案的持續推進。因此，我們將 2028 年經濟發展預測的上限提高至 20,000 吉瓦時的增量負荷。這意味著自第二季更新以來增加了 2,000 吉瓦時。提醒一下，我們在評估將哪些經濟發展機會納入預測時採取了風險調整方法。

In the near term, we continue to see a slower rebound in certain industrial sectors. We are in frequent dialogue with our largest customers, and they continue to signal expectations for a recovery, but the timing has shifted into 2025. Additionally, as with any extreme weather period, third-quarter weather normal volumes likely reflect some impact from the major storms. Overall, we're seeing steady improvement on rolling 12-month volumes and are trending toward our 2024 load growth target of 2%. And over the long term, we see load growth at the top end of our 1.5% to 2% CAGR through 2028, with annual loan growth accelerating in 2027 and 2028 as large economic development projects come online.

短期內，我們繼續看到某些工業部門的反彈速度較慢。我們正在與我們最大的客戶進行頻繁對話，他們繼續表示對復甦的期望，但時間已轉移到 2025 年。此外，與任何極端天氣時期一樣，第三季的正常天氣量可能反映了主要風暴的一些影響。總體而言，我們看到 12 個月滾動量穩步改善，並朝著 2024 年 2% 的負載成長目標邁進。從長遠來看，我們預計到 2028 年，負載成長將達到 1.5% 至 2% 的複合年增長率，隨著大型經濟發展項目的上線，2027 年和 2028 年年度貸款成長將加速。

Turning to slide 10, we have provided key growth drivers for 2025. We've executed an active regulatory calendar over the past two years that has yielded constructive outcomes and positioned us well as we head into next year. Beginning with the electric segment. In Florida, we'll implement a new multiyear rate plan with an updated 10.3% ROE in January.

轉向幻燈片 10，我們提供了 2025 年的關鍵成長動力。過去兩年，我們執行了積極的監管日曆，取得了建設性成果，並為我們進入明年做好了準備。從電動部分開始。在佛羅裡達州，我們將實施一項新的多年利率計劃，一月份的股本回報率更新為 10.3%。

In the Carolinas, we'll implement the second year of the North Carolina multiyear rate plans and see a full-year impact from the DEC South Carolina rate case. And in the Midwest, we expect the Indiana rate case to be effective in March. Finally, we'll see retail sales growth from economic development and population migration in addition to increases in rider revenues. In the gas segment, we'll see growth from the Piedmont, North Carolina rate case, integrity management intents and customer additions. We will provide 2025 earnings guidance in February along with updated load growth expectations and our refreshed capital and financing plans.

在卡羅來納州，我們將實施北卡羅來納州多年費率計劃的第二年，並看到 DEC 南卡羅來納州費率案例對全年的影響。在中西部，我們預計印第安納州利率案將於三月生效。最後，除了乘客收入的增加之外，我們還將看到經濟發展和人口遷移帶來的零售額成長。在天然氣領域，我們將看到北卡羅來納州皮埃蒙特費率案例、誠信管理意圖和客戶增加帶來的成長。我們將在 2 月提供 2025 年獲利指引以及更新的負載成長預期以及更新的資本和融資計劃。

As we signaled, we expect our capital plan to increase as we move further into the energy transition. We also expect capital to increase in the near term as a result of a higher pace of customer additions and refresh cost estimates for generation investments that ramp up in the remainder of the decade. We are well positioned for the opportunities presented by this unprecedented demand growth, and we will take a balanced approach to funding the incremental capital, supporting our growth rate and balance sheet strength.

正如我們所表示的那樣，隨著我們進一步邁向能源轉型，我們預計我們的資本計劃將會增加。我們也預計，由於客戶增加速度加快以及發電投資成本估算的刷新，資本在短期內將會增加，發電投資將在未來十年內不斷增加。我們已做好充分準備，抓住這前所未有的需求成長所帶來的機遇，我們將採取平衡的方式為增量資本提供資金，支持我們的成長率和資產負債表實力。

Moving to slide 11, we've made significant progress on credit supported initiatives. The constructive regulatory outcomes we've achieved with increasing ROEs and timely recovery of investments have driven considerable improvement in our operating cash flow. And in October, we efficiently monetized nearly $200 million of energy tax credits that will benefit customers over time. We expect additional transactions in the fourth quarter.

轉到投影片 11，我們在信貸支援計畫方面取得了重大進展。我們透過提高股本回報率和及時收回投資而取得的建設性監管成果推動了我們經營現金流的顯著改善。10 月份，我們有效地將近 2 億美元的能源稅收抵免貨幣化，隨著時間的推移，這將使客戶受益。我們預計第四季會有更多交易。

We've collected over $3 billion of deferred fuels since 2023 and are on track to be at our normal level by year-end. We've also completed over 80% of our planned $500 million equity issuances through the DRIP and ATM programs having priced $400 million year to date. As I mentioned earlier, we will pursue storm cost recovery through established mechanisms in our states, including securitization in the Carolinas and our storm rider in Florida.

自 2023 年以來，我們已收集了超過 30 億美元的延期燃料，並預計在年底前恢復到正常水平。我們也透過 DRIP 和 ATM 計畫完成了 5 億美元股票發行計畫中的 80% 以上，今年迄今發行的價格為 4 億美元。正如我之前提到的，我們將透過各州的既定機制尋求風暴成本回收，包括卡羅來納州的證券化和佛羅裡達州的風暴騎士。

We expect a temporary credit impact in 2024 and are targeting 14% FFO to debt in 2025, 100 basis points above our Moody's downgrade threshold. And reports issued in October, both Moody's and S&P concurred that the impacts from the storm will not have any long-term credit implications. As we demonstrated over many years, our commitment to our current credit ratings and our strong balance sheet will continue to be a top priority as we execute our growth objectives.

我們預計 2024 年會出現暫時的信貸影響，並目標是 2025 年 FFO 與負債比率達到 14%，比穆迪的降級門檻高出 100 個基點。在十月發布的報告中，穆迪和標準普爾都一致認為風暴的影響不會產生任何長期信用影響。正如我們多年來所證明的那樣，當我們執行成長目標時，我們對當前信用評級和強大資產負債表的承諾將繼續成為首要任務。

Turning to slide 12, we operate in constructive, growing jurisdictions and the fundamentals of our business remain strong. Our track record of regulatory execution has us well positioned to achieve our long-term 5% to 7% growth target through 2028, which combined with our attractive dividend yield, provide a compelling risk-adjusted return for shareholders.

轉向投影片 12，我們在建設性的、不斷發展的司法管轄區開展業務，並且我們業務的基本面仍然強勁。我們的監管執行記錄使我們能夠很好地實現到 2028 年 5% 至 7% 的長期成長目標，這與我們有吸引力的股息收益率相結合，為股東提供了令人信服的風險調整回報。

With that, we will open the line for your questions.

這樣，我們將開通您的提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Shahriar Pourreza, Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員說明）Shahriar Pourreza，古根漢合夥人公司。

Let me just start on overall credit. Post-storms, you guys are still, I guess, above your downgrade threshold for '25. Where are you right now? And what is the FFO impact from the storms? And then on the tax credit monetization side, it's obviously a key source of FFO for you.

讓我從整體信用開始。我想，風暴過後，你們仍然高於 25 年的降級門檻。你現在在哪裡？風暴對 FFO 有何影響？然後在稅收抵免貨幣化方面，這顯然是您 FFO 的關鍵來源。

You guys have guided to a monetization figure this year around $300 million to $500 million, I think you recognized about too. Do you expect to hit the range and where within the range? Is the market kind of slower to develop? So it's an overall credit question, would be great.

你們今年的獲利數字約為 3 億至 5 億美元，我想你們也意識到了。您預計會達到該範圍嗎？市場發展是否較慢？所以這是一個整體信用問題，那就太好了。

Brian, why don't you take that?

布萊恩，你為什麼不接受這個？

Certainly. On the credit, I mentioned that the storm costs are going to temporarily impact our credit in 2024. And as we recover these costs through established mechanisms in '25 now will be resolved. And as we think about where we're tracking on 2024, I'd view us in the high 13s is where we plan on landing. And that has some of the financing impacts from $2.5 billion of storm cost that we expect, that we incurred in 2024.

當然。關於信用，我提到風暴成本將暫時影響我們 2024 年的信用。當我們透過既定機制收回這些成本時，25 年將得到解決。當我們思考 2024 年的目標時，我認為我們的目標是前 13 名。我們預計 2024 年將遭受 25 億美元的風暴損失，這對融資產生了一些影響。

On the tax credit monetization, we completed $200 million so far. And we have contracts in place that we plan on closing in the next month to get to the top half of that range that we signaled earlier this year. So I'd say we're tracking right in line with our expectations. And really, all the credit positive initiatives that we had underway, rate cases going into effect, fuel recovery, monetizing tax credits. All those are tracking at or above our targets for the year.

在稅收抵免貨幣化方面，我們迄今已完成 2 億美元。我們已經簽訂了合同，計劃在下個月完成，以達到我們今年早些時候表示的範圍的上半部分。所以我想說我們的追蹤完全符合我們的預期。事實上，我們正​​在進行的所有信貸積極措施、生效的利率案例、燃料回收、貨幣化稅收抵免。所有這些都達到或高於我們今年的目標。

So we feel really good about where we stand on credit, and that's why we have a lot of confidence in our 2025 credit outlook.

因此，我們對自己的信用狀況感到非常滿意，這就是為什麼我們對 2025 年信用前景充滿信心。

Shahriar, the only thing I would, of course -- Yes. I was just going to say, we've also been in conversation -- yes, as you would expect, we've been in conversation with the agencies. And they are completely comfortable with the plan. We had demonstrated success, as you know, and collecting strong costs in both Florida and Carolinas. So as Brian said, we are on track with every element, and we'll execute as you would expect it to.

Shahriar，當然，我唯一想要的——是的。我只是想說，我們也一直在進行對話——是的，正如你所料，我們一直在與相關機構進行對話。他們對這個計劃完全滿意。如您所知，我們已經取得了成功，並在佛羅裡達州和卡羅來納州收取了高昂的費用。因此，正如布萊恩所說，我們在每個要素上都步入正軌，並且我們將按照您的期望執行。

Got it. And just, Brian, if the storms didn't happen, where would your metrics be versus the high 13% range you are now?

知道了。Brian，如果風暴沒有發生，與現在 13% 的高範圍相比，您的指標會在哪裡？

Yes, storms didn't happen we'd be at 14%, 14% plus.

是的，沒有發生暴風雨，我們的比例會是 14%，14% 以上。

Okay. And then I know, obviously, we're heading into the typical bigger update on the year-end call. But just I want to get a sense on sort of the load environment. I mean you guys are still running the 1.5% to 2% figure, which doesn't really jive with what's been going on around the country. So a lot of your peers have jumped ahead and revised their low growth figures, they're quantifying the impacts and it's actually hitting their numbers.

好的。然後我知道，顯然，我們將在年終電話會議上進行典型的更大更新。但我只是想了解負載環境。我的意思是你們仍在運行 1.5% 到 2% 的數字，這與全國各地正在發生的情況並不相符。因此，許多同行已經提前修正了他們的低成長數字，他們正在量化影響，而這實際上已經達到了他們的數字。

You did slightly, as you highlighted, uptick the economic development figures. I guess maybe just a little bit of it from a trend perspective, what we should expect from Duke. Are you seeing similar trends of what we're seeing around the jurisdictions and do you expect it to potentially be accretive to your numbers?

正如您所強調的，您確實略微提高了經濟發展數據。我想，從趨勢的角度來看，我們應該對杜克大學有所期待。您是否看到了與我們在各個司法管轄區看到的類似趨勢？

Shahriar, I think it's a great question. And when we've kept our CAGR of 1.5% to 2% long term on load growth, and signaling were trending to the top end of that range, and we'll update it in February. And we are trending at the top, and we expect that range to move as we look to next year, Shar. Because the economic development opportunities are not slowing down, and they're very sizable. We mentioned the 2 gigawatts signed in this quarter.

Shahriar，我認為這是一個很好的問題。當我們將負載成長長期保持在 1.5% 到 2% 的複合年增長率時，並且訊號趨向於該範圍的頂端，我們將在 2 月更新它。我們正處於頂部趨勢，我們預計明年這個範圍會發生變化，Shar。因為經濟發展的機會並沒有放緩，而且非常巨大。我們提到了本季簽署的 2 吉瓦裝置容量。

That's just an example of many conversations that are going on that shore up our pipeline and expand it. And so you should expect the load growth to go up as we roll the plan forward, and we will bring that up in February with a fulsome update.

這只是正在進行的許多支持和擴展我們的管道的對話的一個例子。因此，隨著我們推進該計劃，您應該預期負載成長將會上升，我們將在二月透過完整的更新提出這一點。

I'm sure, I think it's important -- we talked CAGR, right? So compound annual growth rate. But as you look at '27 and '28, as depicted on the chart, we are seeing acceleration. And so we'll continue to provide visibility on this and, of course, watch these every step away. They also include discounts in them because we're trying to be conservative, recognizing that some of these projects can tend to shift to the right.

我確信，我認為這很重要——我們討論了複合年增長率，對吧？所以複合年增長率。但當你觀察 27 和 28 年時，如圖表所示，我們看到了加速。因此，我們將繼續提供這方面的可見性，當然，我們將密切關注每一步。它們還包括折扣，因為我們試圖保持保守，並認識到其中一些項目可能會向右移動。

So we're introducing a bit of that as well, and we'll continue to update. So, sorry, do you have another --

所以我們也介紹了其中的一些內容，並且我們將繼續更新。那麼，抱歉，您還有其他嗎--

Got it. So No, no, Lynn, it was just a follow-up on what you just said is so there is some accretive opportunities, I guess, above your current range potentially. Is that kind of the message?

知道了。所以不，不，林恩，這只是您剛才所說的後續行動，所以我想，可能會超出您當前的範圍，因此存在一些增值機會。是這樣的訊息嗎？

I think that's right, Shar. And if you look at the chart, you can see it kind of sitting in '27, '28.

我認為這是對的，莎爾。如果你看一下圖表，你會發現它有點像 27 年、28 年。

Yes. I would just add the projects that we're talking to customers about today we'll show up in late '27, '28 and ramp in the balance of the decade. So you're going to see this kind of burst of activity that will be signing contracts that will come to reality in '27, '28, '29 when we see acceleration of load growth.

是的。我只想添加我們今天與客戶討論的項目，我們將在 27 年末、28 年末出現，並在這十年的剩餘時間裡增加。因此，當我們看到負載成長加速時，您將看到這種激增的活動，這些活動將簽署合同，這些合約將在 27 年、28 年、29 年成為現實。

Julien Dumoulin-Smith, Jefferies.

朱利安·杜穆蘭-史密斯，杰弗里斯。

You've got Jamieson Ward here for Julien. How are you? We're looking forward to seeing you this weekend. A quick question on FFO to debt. Obviously, when the first hurricane hit, you talked about 10 basis points of impact, got the negatives there that I think either people will ask about or you've kind of been addressing.

傑米森沃德來找朱利安。你好嗎？我們期待這個週末見到您。關於 FFO 與債務的快速問題。顯然，當第一次颶風來襲時，您談到了 10 個基點的影響，並得到了負面影響，我認為人們會問到這些負面影響，或者您一直在解決這些問題。

I'd like to talk about the tax credit monetization. Instead, you monetized $200 million last month in October. You mentioned expecting to monetize more by the end of 2024. How should we think about potential monetization in terms of the size, the discount that you're seeing and just for comparability purposes? And how impactful do you think it could by year-end to FFO to debt?

我想談談稅收抵免貨幣化。相反，您在 10 月上個月獲利了 2 億美元。您提到預計到 2024 年底將實現更多盈利。我們應該如何考慮潛在的貨幣化規模、您看到的折扣以及只是為了可比性？您認為到年底，FFO 的債務影響有多大？

And then as a follow-on, just sort of into next year. And that's my question.

然後作為後續行動，進入明年。這就是我的問題。

That's very good, Julien. This is Brian. I'll take that. So what we're seeing in the tax credit market is deepening. And the discounts that were being realized on our tax credits are very attractive.

太好了，朱利安。這是布萊恩.我會接受的。因此，我們在稅收抵免市場上看到的情況正在深化。我們的稅收抵免所實現的折扣非常有吸引力。

So think about mid-90s or even slightly above. So I think there's a lot of taxpayers that are looking to reduce their tax bill and they're lining up to get high-quality credits from good credit quality sellers, right? So we did $200 million in the past month. And we've geared up our process to close the rest this year and the size that we were targeting coming into the year, Julien, was around $300 million to $500 million. We're trending to the upper part of that range, right?

所以想想 90 年代中期甚至略高一點的情況。因此，我認為有很多納稅人正在尋求減少稅單，並且他們正在排隊從信用品質良好的賣家那裡獲得高品質的信用，對嗎？所以我們在過去一個月賺了 2 億美元。我們已經準備好今年完成其餘項目的流程，朱利安，我們今年的目標規模約為 3 億至 5 億美元。我們正趨向於該範圍的上部，對吧？

And the market has been growing and deepening and we've not seen any hesitation by buyers. And what that equates to is about 40 to 60 basis points in the FFO to debt, right? And a big chunk of that is nuclear tax credits, and there's also some solar PTCs inside of that figure. And as we look to next year, we'll have more of both, right, more nuclear, more solar. And so you see it being accretive to the FFO for a few years to come.

市場一直在成長和深化，我們沒有看到買家有任何猶豫。這相當於 FFO 債務利率上升約 40 到 60 個基點，對嗎？其中很大一部分是核稅收抵免，其中還有一些太陽能 PTC。展望明年，我們將擁有更多的核能和太陽能。所以你會看到它將在未來幾年內為 FFO 帶來增值。

Got you. Then as just a quick follow-up there, should we be assuming for the 40 to 60 -- I kept the solar in as well. But for the nuclear PTCs, should we treat them as all being monetized. So whatever the assumption is that we're modeling in for next year, and so I get that in 2030 as well. Obviously, you get the reversal and you're not getting that benefit anymore, just the way the math works, as you amortize them back to customers.

明白你了。然後作為一個快速的後續行動，我們是否應該假設 40 到 60 - 我也保留了太陽能。但對於核PTC，我們是否應該將它們視為全部貨幣化？因此，無論假設是什麼，我們都會為明年進行建模，所以我在 2030 年也是如此。顯然，你得到了逆轉，你就不再獲得這種好處了，就像數學原理一樣，當你將它們攤還給客戶時。

But for the next few years, should it be one for one. You get them, monetize them. Is that the right way to think about it, less solar? Or is there another nuance?

但接下來的幾年，應該是一對一的吧。你得到它們，然後將它們貨幣化。減少太陽能，這是正確的思考方式嗎？還是還有其他細微差別？

No, that's the right way to think about it, Julien, Yes.

不，這是正確的思考方式，朱利安，是的。

Julien, you may recall, we have set forth a pretty creative method of retaining these credits for a period of time and then amortizing them to customers over a four-year period. And so that amortization is very modest in '25 and '26. And then we'll get on a path of amortizing about 25% of them as generated in '28 and forward. So all of that is contemplated in our five-year plan in credit and it's one of those incredible opportunities that not only strengthens credit, but lowers price of our product to customers in a way that I think is really helpful to our growth plans.

Julien，您可能還記得，我們​​提出了一個非常有創意的方法，將這些積分保留一段時間，然後在四年內分攤給客戶。因此，25 年和 26 年的攤銷非常有限。然後我們將攤銷 28 年及以後產生的約 25%。因此，所有這些都在我們的五年信貸計劃中得到考慮，這是令人難以置信的機會之一，它不僅增強了信貸，而且降低了我們向客戶提供的產品價格，我認為這對我們的成長計劃確實有幫助。

Absolutely. Definitely makes sense. And a final point on the amortization. Can you remind us if that -- it's a grained via the second settlement for sure, for DC. But it's just for South Carolina and then for DC, kind of where does that stand in terms of being formalized. I think we're all using that four-year assumption from the initial case and second settlement. Has that been further made concrete, I guess?

絕對地。絕對有道理。最後一點是關於攤銷。你能提醒我們一下嗎——對華盛頓來說，這肯定是透過第二次和解而產生的。但這只是針對南卡羅來納州，然後是華盛頓特區，這在正式化方面處於什麼位置。我認為我們都在使用最初案件和第二次和解中的四年假設。我猜這是否已進一步具體化？

Yes. And let us provide you with an update on that. But North Carolina is memorialized. In South Carolina, we're deferring the credits consideration in the future. I think the North Carolina method, though is a good planning assumption for the Carolinas, and we can get you more details on those specifics, Julien, if that would be full.

是的。讓我們為您提供最新情況。但北卡羅來納州是被紀念的。在南卡羅來納州，我們將推遲未來的學分考量。我認為北卡羅來納州的方法對於卡羅萊納州來說是一個很好的規劃假設，朱利安，我們可以為您提供有關這些細節的更多詳細信息，如果那是完整的。

Nick Campanella, Barclays.

尼克·坎帕內拉，巴克萊銀行。

I think Moody's supportive here. And I know that there's been really constructive effort on the ground with local constituents as one billing with the storm. I guess you did preview in your prepared remarks, there's going to be higher capital coming in the near term, Brian, and just wondering how you're thinking about the need to pull forward any equity, if at all, you do seem confident on the year over year into '25 as well, but I just wanted to check on that.

我認為穆迪對此表示支持。我知道，當地選民為應對這場風暴做出了真正的建設性努力。我想你在準備好的演講中確實預演過，布萊恩，短期內將會有更多的資本到來，只是想知道你如何考慮推進任何股權的必要性，如果有的話，你似乎對進入25年後也是如此，但我只是想檢查一下。

Nick, we have $500 million of equity in our capital plan and our financing plan today per year in the five-year plan. And in February, we'll come up with our new capital plan, which signal will be higher. And there'll be some in the near term and some because 2029 is going to be much larger than 2024.

尼克，在五年計畫中，我們的資本計畫和融資計畫每年都有 5 億美元的股本。到了二月份，我們將提出新的資本計劃，這個訊號會更高。有些是在短期內發生的，有些是因為 2029 年將比 2024 年大得多。

We'll have our full financing plan at that point and provide how we're going to fund that plan in right now, I would not signal any additional equity.

屆時我們將製定完整的融資計劃，並提供我們現在將如何為該計劃提供資金，我不會表示任何額外的股權。

What I would suggest on the equity is, yes, as we expand capital, we will finance it in a balanced way. I think we've given a range of 30% to 50% of equity related to new and incremental capital. So I think that's a planning assumption that would be appropriate.

關於股權，我的建議是，是的，隨著我們擴大資本，我們將以平衡的方式為其融資。我認為我們已經給予了 30% 到 50% 的與新資本和增量資本相關的股權。所以我認為這是一個適當的規劃假設。

That's great. And then something that has come up on earnings call a bit more this season is just new nuclear, and I know that you had some exploratory frameworks, whether it's for SMR or otherwise announced a few quarters ago. Could you just maybe talk about how you see Duke participating in new nuclear, whether it's kind of large scale or small scale into the end of the decade, that would be helpful.

那太棒了。本季財報電話會議上出現的一些內容就是新核，我知道你們有一些探索性框架，無論是針對 SMR 還是在幾個季度前宣布的其他框架。您能否談談您如何看待杜克大學參與新核能項目，無論是大規模還是小規模項目，直到本世紀末，這都會有所幫助。

Yes, Nick, this is Harry. I'll take that question. We see a lot of promise in the SMRs, our customers and stakeholders are very supportive of it. Our states appreciate the economic development that it provides for the communities that we serve. And recently, some of our large tech companies are showing great interest in new nuclear.

是的，尼克，這是哈利。我來回答這個問題。我們在 SMR 中看到了很多希望，我們的客戶和利害關係人都非常支持它。我們各州讚賞它為我們服務的社區帶來的經濟發展。最近，我們的一些大型科技公司對新核能表現出極大的興趣。

At the same time, it's a decision we continue to closely evaluate to make sure that it's in the best interest of our customers and our investors as we move forward. In our current IRP plans that just got approved, both North Carolina and South Carolina approved the early development activities. And we will continue to follow their lead as we move forward. But any decision as we move forward, we'll have to address three key items. The first one is the first-of-the-kind risk that exists, really around the maturity of the technology, the supply chain.

同時，我們將繼續密切評估這一決定，以確保在我們前進的過程中它符合我們的客戶和投資者的最佳利益。在我們目前剛剛獲得批准的IRP計劃中，北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州都批准了早期的開發活動。我們將繼續追隨他們的領導，繼續前進。但隨著我們前進的任何決定，我們都必須解決三個關鍵問題。第一個是存在的首創風險，實際上是圍繞著技術和供應鏈的成熟度而存在的。

The second item is cost overrun protection to protect our investors and our customers. And then our third is to make sure that we can protect our balance sheet for making these investments. So we'll continue to work with our commissions as we look forward to making a decision there.

第二項是成本超支保護，以保護我們的投資者和客戶。第三是確保我們能夠保護我們的資產負債表以進行這些投資。因此，我們將繼續與我們的委員會合作，並期待在那裡做出決定。

Durgesh Chopra, Evercore ISI.

杜爾格甚喬普拉 (Durgesh Chopra)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, good morning tea. Thanks for giving me time. Brian, can I just ask you to clarify what is the earnings impact, the combination of restoration costs and lost revenues from the three hurricanes, what is that impact in 2024?

嘿嘿，早茶好。謝謝你給我時間。Brian，我能否請您澄清一下三場颶風對獲利的影響、恢復成本和收入損失的綜合影響，對 2024 年的影響是什麼？

Yes, Durgesh, you could think about it. We plan for storms in a year, but we don't plan for the historic storm season we just experienced in the past two months. And the restoration costs that would lead to the O&M and the P&L, a few cents of that as well as a few cents of revenues because we had 5.5 million customers out for multiple days. So that's how I think about a few cents each on the O&M for the storm costs that were kind of out of bounds what our normal level would be and lost revenues.

是的，德吉什，你可以考慮一下。我們為一年內的風暴做好了計劃，但我們沒有為過去兩個月剛經歷的歷史性風暴季節做好準備。恢復成本將導致運維和損益，其中幾美分以及幾美分的收入，因為我們有 550 萬客戶多天外出。這就是我對風暴成本的維運成本的看法，這超出了我們的正常水平，並且造成了收入損失。

And Durgesh, I would point to, if you look at the drivers for the third quarter, you see us with O&M greater than third quarter of '23. That's largely impacted by storm expense. And then if we look at the fourth quarter, the majority of -- a large amount of restoration for Helene fits in the fourth quarter as well as Milton, all of Milton. And so the revenue -- expected revenue impact from outage will impact the fourth quarter as well. So when we look at it in total, it's both of these things that are really driving us to be below target in the range.

我想指出的是，Durgesh，如果你看看第三季的驅動因素，你會發現我們的 O&M 高於 23 年第三季。這很大程度受到風暴費用的影響。然後，如果我們看一下第四季度，海倫的大部分恢復都適合第四季度以及米爾頓，整個米爾頓。因此，停電對收入的預期收入影響也將影響第四季。因此，當我們從整體來看，正是這兩件事真正促使我們低於目標範圍。

But you should know, as you've seen us do many times, we will do everything we can to mitigate this, and that's the posture that we're assuming here for the fourth quarter and have a high degree of confidence that we will constrain the hurricane impact to 2024. And so our optimism around 2025 and the growth that this company offers to investors remains unchanged.

但你應該知道，正如你多次看到我們所做的那樣，我們將盡一切努力來緩解這種情況，這就是我們在第四季度所採取的姿態，並且非常有信心我們將限制這種情況颶風對2024 年的影響。因此，我們對 2025 年左右的樂觀態度以及該公司為投資者帶來的成長保持不變。

That's very helpful. And maybe just talking to that growth line. I mean, I think in the Q2 call, and obviously, earlier today, you reaffirmed the 5% to 7% on the Q2 call, I just want to be clear. You talked about perhaps getting to the higher end of that 5% to 7% on EPS growth to the back end of the plan. Is that still sort of the way you're projecting that growth to trend?

這非常有幫助。也許只是與那條生長線交談。我的意思是，我認為在第二季電話會議中，顯然，今天早些時候，您重申了第二季電話會議中的 5% 至 7%，我只是想澄清一下。您談到，在計畫的後期，每股盈餘成長可能會達到 5% 到 7% 的上限。這仍然是您預測趨勢成長的方式嗎？

Durgesh, that's a good question, and it's really consistent with the conversation we just had with Shar around load growth. So when you look at '27 and '28 in that chart that sort of has a bit of a slope to it, and you see us deeper into the energy transition with increasing capital, that's what we're pointing to is the potential we have to get higher in the range. So we're working hard in that direction and believe we've got the potential. And the constructive regulatory outcomes that we've been delivering time and time again really underpin our confidence.

Durgesh，這是一個很好的問題，這與我們剛剛與 Shar 關於負載成長的對話非常一致。因此，當您查看該圖表中的“27”和“28”時，您會看到我們隨著資本的增加而更深入地進入能源轉型，這就是我們所指出的我們擁有的潛力以獲得更高的範圍。所以我們正在朝這個方向努力，並相信我們有潛力。我們一次又一次提供的建設性監管成果確實增強了我們的信心。

Anthony Crowdell, Mizuho.

安東尼克勞德爾，瑞穗。

I guess just quickly, just to Durgesh's question, which I think followed up on Shar's question, and you talked about maybe at the end of the day, maybe leaning towards the higher end of the EPS CAGR. Any thoughts with the loan growth? And also when you look at these historic storms maybe widening the credit cushion that you guys have and maybe using the load growth and the enhanced earnings growth of making a wider cushion beyond the 100, 150 basis points you're working on now?

我想很快就回答了 Durgesh 的問題，我認為這是 Shar 問題的後續，你可能在一天結束時談到過，可能傾向於 EPS CAGR 的高端。對貸款成長有何想法？而且，當你看到這些歷史性的風暴時，也許會擴大你們擁有的信貸緩衝，也許會利用負荷增長和盈利增長的增強，使緩衝超出你們現在正在研究的 100、150 個基點？

Andy, it's a good question and something we spend a lot of time thinking about, and we'll be working in that direction. Thinking also planning for some more contingency around storms and our annual planning will also be a part of that. So as you would expect us to do, we've learned from every one of these events and 2024 will be no exception.

安迪，這是一個很好的問題，我們花了很多時間思考，我們將朝著這個方向努力。也要考慮為風暴周圍的更多突發事件做好計劃，我們的年度計劃也將是其中的一部分。因此，正如您期望我們所做的那樣，我們從這些事件中吸取了教訓，2024 年也不例外。

And just have one follow-up. And I don't know if you've quantified it. Just you're talking about additional maybe mitigation measures for the fourth quarter. A company quantified what they expect from a normal run rate to pull out of fourth quarter?

只需進行一次後續行動即可。我不知道你是否量化過它。只是您正在談論第四季度可能採取的額外緩解措施。一家公司量化了他們對第四季正常運作率的預期？

We haven't quantified something specifically, Anthony. And I invite you to know that there's a ton of work going on. But we're only about two weeks past Hurricane Milton. So we're working -- and when we talk about our range and the expectation we've set for the full year, that implies that we are going to keep going. And we actually believe that the quantification of the mitigation could put us in a position or O&M is lower than '23. But I don't want to get any more specific than that given where we are in the process.

安東尼，我們還沒有具體量化一些東西。我邀請您知道還有大量工作正在進行中。但颶風米爾頓剛過兩週。所以我們正在努力——當我們談論我們的範圍和我們為全年設定的期望時，這意味著我們將繼續前進。我們實際上相信，緩解措施的量化可以使我們處於比 23 年更低的位置。但我不想透露比我們目前所處的進程更具體的資訊。

Jeremy Tonet, JPMorgan.

傑里米·託內特，摩根大通。

Actually, Ian Kelly on for Jeremy. Just wanted to dive into the 2 gigawatts of incremental data center growth a bit further. Was this comprised of several large single or multiple customers? And then could you confirm whether Microsoft's land acquisition in North Carolina is embedded in this forecast or maybe incremental here?

事實上，伊恩凱利（Ian Kelly）代表傑里米（Jeremy）。只是想進一步深入了解資料中心 2 吉瓦的增量成長。這是由幾個大的單一客戶還是多個客戶組成的？那麼您能否確認微軟在北卡羅來納州的土地收購是否包含在這項預測中，或者可能是增量的？

Ian, it's a good question. The 2 gigawatts right now, this work is confidential. So we're not going to share the customer information. But I will say when we sign letter agreements, what that means is the customer has a site identified and land secured, either through options or purchased. And what happens next is that we will negotiate with that customer over the next 8 to 10, 12 months on the energy service agreement.

伊恩，這是個好問題。目前2吉瓦，這項工作是保密的。所以我們不會分享客戶資訊。但我要說的是，當我們簽署信件協議時，這意味著客戶已經透過選擇權或購買方式確定了場地並獲得了土地。接下來我們將在接下來的 8 到 10、12 個月內與該客戶就能源服務協議進行談判。

And that codifies what the contract will be between us serving that customer and what that customer will pay for its energy. And so you'd expect all these details to come out over the next year. And I mentioned in my prepared remarks, this is emblematic of what we're seeing across the Board, right? We're talking to many customers in this arena.

這規定了我們為該客戶提供服務以及該客戶將為其能源支付的費用之間的合約內容。因此，您預計所有這些細節都會在明年公佈。我在準備好的發言中提到，這象徵著我們所看到的全面情況，對吧？我們正在與這個領域的許多客戶交談。

And I'm not going to talk specifically about Microsoft's acquisition of land that was in an article recently, but we're having talks with many customers, and they're very serious about citing their data centers in the Carolina specifically because in the Carolinas over half our energy is carbon-free nuclear and that's very attractive to the data center. So we see this as a great opportunity for us, and we're seeing it come to reality as we sign agreements like these.

我不會具體談論微軟最近在一篇文章中收購的土地，但我們正在與許多客戶進行交談，他們非常認真地引用他們在卡羅萊納州的數據中心，特別是因為在卡羅萊納州我們一半以上的能源是無碳核能，這對資料中心非常有吸引力。因此，我們認為這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，當我們簽署這樣的協議時，我們看到它變成了現實。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just any thoughts on how election results could impact your resource mix and generation portfolio, maybe specifically regarding coal plant retirements or renewables additions? And then could you talk about any industries that could be impacted in your territory by maybe manufacturing shore or do you have any incremental load growth in your forecast from this?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許只是關於選舉結果如何影響您的資源組合和發電組合的任何想法，也許特別是關於燃煤電廠退役或可再生能源增加？然後您能否談談您所在地區可能受到製造業影響的任何行業，或者您的預測中是否有任何增量負載增長？

I'll take that one, Ian. We're digesting election results and looking at both federal and state. I think congratulating -- I want to extend congratulations to President Trump on his work and really look forward to working with his administration on our task of delivering affordable, reliable power. I think the US economy will be focused on a priority of his and our industry plays an incredibly important role.

我要那個，伊恩。我們正在消化選舉結果並關注聯邦和州的情況。我想祝賀川普總統所做的工作，並真誠地期待與他的政府合作，完成我們提供負擔得起的、可靠的電力的任務。我認為美國經濟將重點關注他的優先事項，我們的產業發揮著極其重要的作用。

So as we look at what we're doing here in the Carolinas and also Indiana and Florida, we are putting infrastructure in place in order to serve economic development and believe there are lots of opportunities to work together. And similarly, with our states, we had two (inaudible) elections, one in Indiana, one in North Carolina, the governors in both states are people we know well, who understand the important role that the utility plays and investing in infrastructure and driving growth.

因此，當我們看看我們在卡羅萊納州、印第安納州和佛羅裡達州所做的事情時，我們正在建立基礎設施，以服務經濟發展，並相信有很多合作機會。同樣，在我們的州，我們進行了兩次（聽不清楚）選舉，一場在印第安納州，一場在北卡羅來納州，這兩個州的州長都是我們熟悉的人，他們了解公用事業公司所發揮的重要作用以及對基礎設施和駕駛的投資生長。

And so we're anxious to work with those administrations as well. And I think our conviction around delivering affordable and reliable energy is something that will resonate in our states and also at the federal level.

因此，我們也渴望與這些政府合作。我認為我們關於提供負擔得起且可靠的能源的信念將在我們的州和聯邦層級引起共鳴。

Appreciate the color there. And then just maybe one more if I could add it in. Could you just quantify roughly per year, how much in transferability you're seeing?

欣賞那裡的顏色。如果我可以添加它的話，也許還可以再添加一個。您能否大致量化一下您每年看到的可轉移性有多少？

On the energy tax credits, Ian?

關於能源稅收抵免，伊恩？

Yes, correct.

是的，正確。

We signaled 40 to 60 basis points of FFO to debt improvement from these tax credit sales in 2024, and that equates to about $300 million to $500 million of monetized tax credits in a year. And so you could think about it in that kind of range for the next several years.

我們表示，到 2024 年，這些稅收抵免銷售可將 FFO 的債務改善提高 40 至 60 個基點，這相當於一年內約 3 億至 5 億美元的貨幣化稅收抵免。所以你可以在接下來的幾年裡在這個範圍內思考它。

Carly Davenport, Goldman.

卡莉·達文波特，高盛。

This is actually John Miller on for Carly. Maybe to start on the Indiana IRP, could you maybe talk about -- new in that updated filing and then kind of what the total opportunity there looks like now?

這其實是約翰·米勒為卡莉代言的。也許從印第安納州 IRP 開始，您能否談談更新後的文件中的新內容，以及現在的整體機會是什麼樣的？

Yes. I'll take that one, John. We filed our IRP last week in Indiana. We've been working with stakeholders for many months on that plan. It really is transitioning our Cayuga plant to gas, adding storage and solar, really diversifying the fuel supply we have in Indiana.

是的。我要那個，約翰。我們上週在印第安納州提交了 IRP。我們已經與利益相關者就該計劃進行了數月的合作。它確實正在將我們的卡尤加工廠轉向天然氣，增加儲存和太陽能，真正實現印第安納州燃料供應的多樣化。

And also working through our Gibson facility and what we're going to do there in the future. So very broad stakeholder support for our plans. We will be filing the CPCN at the Cayuga plant at the beginning of next year, and expect to be moving forward with the plan and the IRP as we progress into next year.

也透過我們的吉布森工廠開展工作，以及我們未來將在那裡做什麼。我們的計劃得到了非常廣泛的利害關係人的支持。我們將於明年初在卡尤加工廠提交 CPCN，並期望隨著明年的進展繼續推進該計劃和 IRP。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe on the Carolinas IRP with North Carolina deferring some natural gas next year, for the next resource plan, I guess, one, when in 2025, do you expect to file the resource plan? And then how should we think about the size of it? Will it be a smaller filing? Or could it be similar in size to the outstanding resource plan?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，也許在卡羅萊納州 IRP 上，北卡羅來納州推遲明年的一些天然氣，對於下一個資源計劃，我想，一是，您預計在 2025 年何時提交資源計劃？那我們該如何考慮它的大小呢？檔案會更小嗎？或者它的規模與未完成的資源計劃相似？

So we're very pleased that we got the IRPs approved earlier last week and this week, both in North Carolina and South Carolina, very constructive orders, really allows us to move forward with our near-term actions that we have in both states. We will be filing updates to those plans next year, but don't anticipate a tremendous difference in what we're planning. We're really focused on those near-term actions and advancing the items that we've put in place there. Very constructive work with stakeholders as we move forward. We have our CPCNs for some of the gas generations that we expect to hear back from by the end of the year as well to proceed with those constructions projects at Person County.

因此，我們非常高興上週早些時候和本週在北卡羅來納州和南卡羅來納州獲得了 IRP 批准，非常有建設性的訂單，確實使我們能夠繼續推進我們在這兩個州的近期行動。我們將於明年提交這些計劃的更新，但預計我們的計劃不會有巨大差異。我們真正關注的是那些近期行動並推進我們在那裡實施的項目。在我們前進的過程中，與利害關係人進行了非常有建設性的工作。我們有一些天然氣發電的 CPCN，我們希望在今年年底前收到回复，並繼續在帕森縣進行這些建設項目。

We have no further questions. So I will hand back the call to Lynn Good for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。因此，我將把電話交回給林恩古德 (Lynn Good) 進行閉幕致辭。

Great. Well, thank you all. And we'll see you in a couple of days. Looking forward to the EEI Financial conference. I want to thank you for your questions and for your investment to Duke Energy.

偉大的。嗯，謝謝大家。我們幾天後再見。期待EEI金融會議。我要感謝您提出的問題以及您對杜克能源公司的投資。

Talk soon. Thank you.

快說吧。謝謝。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes the call. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝大家。通話就此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。