Duke Energy Corp (DUK) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello all, and welcome to the Duke Energy Fourth Quarter and End Year 2023 Earnings Call. My name is Lydia, and I'll be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加杜克能源2023年第四季及年終財報電話會議。我叫Lydia，今天將擔任您的接線生。 （接線生指示）

I'll now hand you over to Abby Motsinger, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin.

現在我將把發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Abby Motsinger。

Thank you, Lydia, and good morning everyone. Welcome to Duke Energy's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Review and Business Update. Leading our call today is Lynn Good, Chair, President and CEO; along with Brian Savoy, Executive Vice President and CFO. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information. Actual results may differ from forward-looking statements due to factors disclosed in today's materials and in Duke Energy's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures.

謝謝莉迪亞，大家早安！歡迎參加杜克能源2023年第四季財報回顧及業務更新會議。今天主持電話會議的是董事長、總裁兼執行長 Lynn Good 以及執行副總裁兼財務長布萊恩薩沃伊 (Brian Savoy)。今天的討論將涵蓋非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的使用和前瞻性資訊。由於今天的資料以及杜克能源提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中揭露的因素，實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述有所不同。今天會議的附錄包含補充資訊以及非公認會計準則 (Non-GAAP) 財務指標的對帳表。

With that, let me turn the call over to Lynn.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給 Lynn。

Abby, thank you, and good morning everyone. Today, we announced 2023 adjusted earnings per share of $5.56, finishing the year within our guidance range and demonstrating once again our ability to exercise agility in managing our business and meeting our commitments. We also announced 2024 guidance of $5.85 to $6.10 with a midpoint of $5.98. This represents 6% growth from our original 2023 guidance, and we extended our 5% to 7% EPS growth rate through 2028 off the midpoint of our 2024 range.

Abby，謝謝你，大家早安。今天，我們宣布2023年調整後每股收益為5.56美元，全年業績符合我們的預期範圍，再次證明了我們能夠靈活地管理業務並履行承諾。我們也宣布了2024年的業績預期，每股收益為5.85美元至6.10美元，中位數為5.98美元。這比我們最初的2023年預期成長了6%，我們將2024年預期中位數每股收益的成長率延長至2028年，預計成長率為5%至7%。

We entered the year with significant momentum. 2024 marks a fundamental repositioning of our investment proposition. With the commercial renewable sale, we've transformed our business to become a fully regulated utility for the first time in decades.

我們以強勁的勢頭開啟了新的一年。 2024年標誌著我們投資理念的根本重塑。透過商業再生能源銷售，我們數十年來首次轉型成為一家完全受監管的公用事業公司。

Along with improved regulatory constructs, we're poised to deliver on our simplified 100% regulated growth plan. Our Southeast and Midwest utilities operate in some of the fastest growing and most attractive jurisdictions across the U.S.. We expect growth in our service territories to accelerate as we move further into the energy transition, driving substantial investment. We are now projecting $73 billion in CapEx over the next 5 years, an $8 billion increase versus our previous plan.

隨著監管結構的完善，我們已準備好實施簡化的100%受監管成長計畫。我們位於東南部和中西部的公用事業公司在美國一些成長最快、最具吸引力的司法管轄區運作。隨著我們進一步推動能源轉型，並推動大量投資，我們預計服務區域的成長將加速。我們目前預計未來五年的資本支出將達到730億美元，比先前的計畫增加80億美元。

Turning to Slide 5. 2023 marked another year of outstanding accomplishments across our business, building on our compelling growth story as we move into '24. As I mentioned, we completed our portfolio repositioning and delivered multiple constructive regulatory outcomes while maintaining our commitment to safety and customers. We executed 5 rate cases, and I'm proud of the constructive results the team has delivered.

翻到第5張投影片。 2023年是我們業務再創輝煌的一年，在邁入2024年之際，我們以令人矚目的成長歷程為基石。正如我之前提到的，我們完成了產品組合的重新定位，並在履行對安全和客戶的承諾的同時，也取得了多項建設性的監管成果。我們執行了5個利率案例，我為團隊所取得的建設性成果感到自豪。

We received orders approving $45 billion in historic and future rate base investments that will provide growth to customers for years to come. There was also a recognition of the rising cost of capital with improving ROEs and equity ratios. And in North Carolina, we implemented forward-looking multiyear rate plans for the first time ever. The performance-based regulations authorized by HB 951 provides certainty, predictability and value to customers and the company. This milestone was accomplished through years of work with policymakers, legislators and other stakeholders.

我們收到批准450億美元用於歷史和未來費率基礎投資的命令，這些投資將在未來數年為客戶提供成長動力。此外，隨著淨資產收益率和股東權益比率的提高，資本成本也隨之上升。在北卡羅來納州，我們首次實施了前瞻性的多年期費率計劃。 HB 951法案授權的基於績效的監管規定為客戶和公司提供了確定性、可預測性和價值。這一里程碑的實現離不開我們與政策制定者、立法者和其他利益相關者多年合作的成果。

Shifting to operations. Our teams performed well throughout the year, serving our customers in extreme weather conditions and restoring power following historic storms in Indiana and Florida. Providing safe, reliable power in all seasons and circumstances remains our mission. In fact, in 2023, Duke Energy Florida had its best reliability performance in more than a decade, largely due to our significant storm protection plan investments. These investments also aided restoration efforts in Hurricane Idalia, saving outage minutes and speeding return to service. In the Carolinas, our nuclear fleet continues to generate safe, reliable carbon-free power, achieving a capacity factor of 96%, the 25th year in a row above 90%.

轉向營運。我們的團隊全年表現出色，在極端天氣條件下為客戶提供服務，並在印第安納州和佛羅裡達州遭遇歷史性風暴後恢復供電。在所有季節和情況下提供安全可靠的電力始終是我們的使命。事實上，2023年，杜克能源佛羅裡達公司實現了十多年來最佳的可靠性表現，這主要歸功於我們為風暴防護計畫進行的大量投資。這些投資也幫助了颶風伊達利亞的恢復工作，節省了停電時間，並加快了恢復服務的速度。在卡羅萊納州，我們的核電廠持續提供安全可靠的無碳電力，容量利用率達96%，連續25年超過90%。

And underpinning all of this, in a hallmark of our commitment to operational excellence, 2023 marked our best safety performance in company history as measured by a total incident case rate of 0.31. Safety is a core value at Duke Energy, and I'm proud of our employees' commitment to event-free operations.

所有這些，都體現在我們致力於卓越營運的承諾之上，2023年，我們取得了公司歷史上最佳的安全業績，總事故發生率為0.31。安全是杜克能源的核心價值，我為我們員工致力於零事故營運的承諾感到自豪。

Finally, the Piedmont team continues to excel in customer service. For the second year in a row, J.D. Power ranked Piedmont #1 in residential customer satisfaction for natural gas services in the Southeast. And our Carolinas electric utilities continue to achieve strong results as well, remaining in the top quartile.

最後，皮埃蒙特團隊在客戶服務方面繼續表現出色。 J.D. Power連續第二年將皮埃蒙特評為東南地區天然氣服務住宅客戶滿意度第一名。我們的卡羅萊納州電力公司也持續取得優異成績，始終位居前四分之一。

Moving to Slide 6, we start the year entering the next phase of our energy transition, a period of execution and record infrastructure build to meet the evolving energy needs of our customers and communities. We're working with stakeholders to develop resource plans to support the phenomenal growth in our communities. In the Carolinas, demand is already outpacing the forecast used in our August resource plan filings and we filed supplemental portfolios in January. We're committed to meeting this growth with a diverse and increasingly clean energy mix that includes renewables, natural gas, next-generation nuclear and storage resources, as well as energy efficiency and demand response tools.

翻到第6張投影片，我們即將進入能源轉型的下一階段，這是一個執行和創紀錄的基礎設施建設時期，旨在滿足客戶和社區不斷變化的能源需求。我們正在與利益相關者合作制定資源計劃，以支持我們社區的驚人成長。在卡羅萊納州，需求已經超過了我們8月份資源計畫文件中的預測，我們也在1月提交了補充投資組合。我們致力於透過多樣化且日益清潔的能源組合來滿足這一成長，其中包括再生能源、天然氣、下一代核能和儲能資源，以及能源效率和需求響應工具。

We're also taking steps to build new generation. In North Carolina we'll file CPCNs for over 2 gigawatts of new natural gas generation in '24. We'll continue to advance annual solar procurements targeting 1 gigawatt per year. And in Indiana, we'll file CPCNs for new generation resources around midyear. These new facilities will add to our diverse mix of resources and are critical to meeting growing customer demand as we reliably exit coal by 2035.

我們也採取措施建設新一代發電設施。在北卡羅來納州，我們將在2024年為超過2吉瓦的新增天然氣發電項目提交CPCN（電力採購控制公告）。我們將繼續推動年度太陽能採購，目標是每年採購1吉瓦。在印第安納州，我們將在年中左右為新一代發電資源提交CPCN。這些新設施將增強我們多元化的資源組合，對於滿足日益增長的客戶需求至關重要，因為我們將在2035年之前可靠地淘汰煤炭。

From a regulatory perspective, we've announced 2 rate cases in 2024, starting with DEC South Carolina in early January. Since the last case in 2018, we've invested more than $1.5 billion to improve reliability and resiliency and meet the growing energy needs of our more than 650,000 customers. And in Florida, we notified the commission of our intent to file a rate case in April. Similar to our current multiyear rate plan, which runs through 2024, this filing will cover 3 years of investments beginning in 2025.

從監管角度來看，我們已宣布了2024年的兩起費率案件，第一起是1月初在南卡羅來納州DEC提起的。自2018年上一次案件以來，我們已投資超過15億美元，以提高可靠性和彈性，滿足超過65萬名客戶日益增長的能源需求。在佛羅裡達州，我們已於4月通知該委員會，我們打算提起費率案件。與我們目前持續到2024年的多年期費率計畫類似，此次申請將涵蓋從2025年開始的三年投資。

Our plan will add over 1,000 megawatts of new solar and include over $3 billion of grid investments to serve population growth, increase reliability and reduced storm-related outages. Finally, since our last rate cases at Duke Energy Indiana and Piedmont, North Carolina, we've continued to make investments to strengthen our system, and we're evaluating the timing of our next filings in these jurisdictions.

我們的計畫將新增超過1000兆瓦的太陽能發電量，並投資超過30億美元的電網，以應對人口增長、提高供電可靠性並減少風暴相關的停電。最後，自從上次在印第安納州杜克能源公司和北卡羅來納州皮埃蒙特市提起電費訴訟以來，我們一直在持續投資以加強我們的系統，並且正在評估在這些司法管轄區下次提起訴訟的時間。

In closing, I'll move to Slide 7, which depicts the transition of Duke Energy over the last many years to the premier regulated utility that it is today. The strategic and financial clarity provided by optimizing our portfolio over the last decade has simplified Duke Energy to a powerful, core regulated business operating in vibrant jurisdictions, growing through population migration and strong commercial and industrial economic development. Our growth potential is the highest it's been in decades and is reflected in our $73 billion capital plan. This plan is driven by grid investments to transform the largest T&D system in the U.S. and IRP-related generation investments to support our growing jurisdictions and fleet transition. And efficient recovery mechanisms allow us to translate these investments into customer and investor value.

最後，我將轉到第7張投影片，它描述了杜克能源多年來向如今領先的受監管公用事業公司轉型的歷程。過去十年，我們透過優化投資組合，實現了策略和財務上的清晰，使杜克能源簡化為一家強大的核心受監管企業，在充滿活力的司法管轄區運營，並透過人口遷移和強勁的工商業經濟發展不斷發展。我們的成長潛力達到了幾十年來的最高水平，這體現在我們730億美元的資本計畫中。該計劃由電網投資驅動，旨在改造美國最大的輸配電系統，以及與綜合電力回收計劃（IRP）相關的發電投資，以支持我們不斷增長的司法管轄區和電力機組的轉型。高效的回收機制使我們能夠將這些投資轉化為客戶和投資者的價值。

In closing, we have positioned Duke for long-term value creation, and our path forward is clear as we navigate the coming decade of record infrastructure build. This pivotal point in our history drives a differentiated, low-risk total return proposition going forward, and I'm confident we will deliver.

最後，我們已將杜克定位於長期價值創造，未來十年基礎建設將創歷史新高，而我們的前進方向也已清晰。我們歷史上的這一關鍵時刻，將推動我們未來實現差異化、低風險的全回報目標，我堅信我們一定能夠實現這一目標。

With that, let me turn the call over to Brian.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Lynn, and good morning everyone. Turning to Slide 8. 2023 marked a year of solid growth for our utilities. We achieved full year adjusted earnings per share of $5.56, which represents about 6% growth over 2022. For the year, we saw top line growth from constructive rate case outcomes, multiyear rate plans and rider growth across our jurisdictions. Additionally, we delivered on our cost and agility efforts, which offset record mild weather, lower volumes and higher interest expense. 2023 was a year full of significant headwinds, and I'm proud of the team for executing on our agility plans, including strong fourth quarter results to deliver on our financial commitments.

謝謝，Lynn，大家早安。翻到第8張幻燈片。 2023年是我們公用事業業務穩健成長的一年。全年調整後每股收益為5.56美元，較2022年成長約6%。今年，由於建設性費率案例結果、多年期費率計劃以及我們轄區內附加費率的增長，我們的營收實現了增長。此外，我們在成本和敏捷性方面也做出了努力，這抵消了創紀錄的溫和天氣、較低的交易量和較高的利息支出。 2023年是充滿巨大阻力的一年，我為團隊執行敏捷性計劃感到自豪，包括強勁的第四季度業績，兌現了我們的財務承諾。

Turning to Slide 9. We're introducing our 2024 guidance range of $5.85 to $6.10. The midpoint of $5.98 represents more than 7% growth over 2023.

翻到第9張投影片。我們推出2024年的指導區間，即5.85美元至6.10美元。 5.98美元的中點代表比2023年成長7%以上。

Within electric, we expect normal weather and retail volume growth of roughly 2%. We also entered the year with updated rates for our North Carolina utilities, including the benefit of the historic base case as well as year 1 of the multiyear rate plans. Additionally, we have updated rates at Duke Energy Kentucky and expect updated rates for DEC South Carolina in August. We'll see growth from year 3 of the Florida multiyear rate plan currently in effect, and we will continue to see growth from grid investment riders in the Midwest and Florida. Partially offsetting these favorable drivers are higher interest expense as well as depreciation and property taxes on a growing asset base.

在電力領域，我們預計在正常天氣和零售量成長約2%的情況下，電力零售量將成長約2%。此外，我們也更新了北卡羅來納州公用事業公司的費率，包括歷史基準情境以及多年期費率計畫第一年的收益。此外，我們也更新了杜克能源肯塔基州公司的費率，並預計在8月更新杜克能源南卡羅來納州公司的費率。我們將看到目前佛羅裡達州多年期費率計劃第三年開始的增長，並且我們將繼續看到中西部和佛羅裡達州電網投資附加條款的增長。部分抵銷這些有利驅動因素的是更高的利息支出以及不斷增長的資產基數帶來的折舊和房產稅。

Our gas segment continues to deliver strong growth, with investments across all jurisdictions related to integrity management and to serve a growing customer base. Finally, we expect the Other segment to be impacted by higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate.

我們的天然氣業務持續保持強勁成長，並在所有司法管轄區開展與誠信管理相關的投資，以服務不斷增長的客戶群。最後，我們預期其他業務將受到利息支出和有效稅率上升的影響。

We ended 2023 with an ETR of 10%. Although we continue to pursue a robust set of tax optimization strategies, we expect our 2024 ETR will increase to between 12% and 14%.

截至2023年底，我們的實際稅率為10%。儘管我們將繼續推行一系列強而有力的稅務優化策略，但我們預計2024年的實際稅率將升至12%至14%之間。

Turning to retail electric volumes on Slide 10. In 2023, we saw strong residential customer growth in all jurisdictions, highlighted by the Carolinas and Florida at 2.1% and 2%, respectively. In fact, over the course of 2023, we added 195,000 new customers, the largest customer increase in company history and a continuation of the trend we've seen over the past few years. As a reminder, residential decoupling in North Carolina began in DEP in October and in DEC in January. This will reduce volatility and align growth with positive customer migration trends.

再來看看第10張幻燈片上的零售電量。 2023年，我們看到所有轄區的住宅用戶都實現了強勁增長，其中卡羅來納州和佛羅裡達州的增幅最大，分別為2.1%和2%。事實上，在2023年，我們新增了19.5萬名客戶，這是公司史上最大的客戶增幅，也延續了過去幾年的趨勢。需要提醒的是，北卡羅來納州的住宅用戶脫鉤已於10月在DEP地區開始實施，1月在DEC地區開始實施。這將降低波動性，並使成長與積極的客戶遷移趨勢保持一致。

We have also seen significant growth in economic development opportunities in our service territories, as reflected in our recent supplemental Carolinas resource plan filings. As we evaluate which projects to include in our financial plan, we recognize that site selection processes are often very competitive. We generally only include the most mature and committed projects, focusing on those with letter agreements or in very late-stage development. This gives us upside potential should additional projects progress.

我們也看到，我們服務區域的經濟發展機會顯著成長，這反映在我們最近提交的卡羅萊納州資源計畫補充文件中。在評估哪些項目應納入財務計畫時，我們意識到選址過程通常競爭非常激烈。我們通常只納入最成熟、投入最大的項目，並專注於那些已簽訂書面協議或處於開發後期的項目。如果其他項目取得進展，這將為我們帶來上漲潛力。

Economic development opportunities in our service territories are diversified across many industries, semiconductors, EVs, batteries, pharmaceuticals and data centers to name a few, which will provide growth from the projects themselves as well as incremental growth from residential and supplier demand. These economic development and customer migration trends give us confidence in our 1.5% to 2% load growth expectation over the forecast period.

我們服務區域內的經濟發展機會涵蓋眾多產業，包括半導體、電動車、電池、製藥和資料中心等，這些機會將帶來專案本身的成長，以及住宅和供應商需求帶來的增量成長。這些經濟發展和客戶遷移趨勢使我們對預測期內1.5%至2%的負載成長預期充滿信心。

Turning to Slide 11, Duke's proven track record of cost management will support our ability to execute an energy transition that is rooted in discipline and a commitment to safety for our employees and reliability and affordability for our customers. As I mentioned before, we delivered on our significant O&M and agility targets for 2023 in response to macroeconomic headwinds and unfavorable weather. In 2024, we expect O&M to be largely flat to 2023, offsetting inflationary pressures with sustainable efficiencies, and we will continue to target a flat cost structure over the 5-year plan. Duke Energy is a leader in the industry when it comes to cost efficiency, driven by our culture of continuous improvement. We consistently rank in the top quartile across a variety of O&M measures, and our ability to manage our cost structure creates significant value for our customers and shareholders.

翻到第11張投影片，杜克能源在成本管理方面卓越的績效將助力我們實現能源轉型，這項轉型植根於嚴謹的紀律以及對員工安全、客戶可靠性和可負擔性的承諾。正如我之前提到的，為了因應宏觀經濟逆風和不利天氣的影響，我們實現了2023年重要的維運成本和敏捷性目標。我們預計2024年的維運成本將與2023年基本持平，以可持續的效率抵銷通膨壓力，並且我們將繼續在五年計畫中保持成本結構穩定。在持續改進的企業文化的推動下，杜克能源在成本效率方面處於行業領先地位。我們在各種維運指標中始終名列前茅，我們管理成本結構的能力為客戶和股東創造了巨大的價值。

Turning to Slide 12. I'd like to provide an overview of our 5-year $73 billion capital plan, which has increased $8 billion over our previous plan. About half of the incremental capital is a result of rolling the plan forward a year to include 2028. The update reflects an early estimate of the supplemental Carolinas resource plan filed in January as well as improved spend in the North Carolina multiyear rate plans. Over time, our capital plan has steadily increased as we move further into the clean energy transition, supporting a 7.2% earnings base CAGR through 2028.

翻到第12張投影片。我想概述我們為期五年、總額730億美元的資本計劃，該計劃比我們之前的計劃增加了80億美元。新增資本中約有一半是將計畫向前滾動一年，涵蓋2028年的成果。此次更新反映了1月提交的補充卡羅萊納州資源計畫的初步估算，以及北卡羅來納州多年期費率計畫支出的增加。隨著我們進一步推進清潔能源轉型，我們的資本計畫穩步成長，並支持2028年實現7.2%的獲利基數複合年增長率。

Grid investments represent 50% of our 5-year capital plan and will improve the reliability and resiliency of our system. Significant generation spend ramps up in the latter part of the plan as we add more renewables and storage assets, extend the life of our carbon-free nuclear fleet and make prudent investments in cleaner natural gas to better serve our growing customer base. Looking ahead, about 90% of the electric investments in our capital plan are eligible for efficient recovery mechanisms, which is critical to maintaining a strong balance sheet, mitigating regulatory lag and smoothing customer rate impacts.

電網投資占我們五年資本計畫的50%，將提升我們系統的可靠性和彈性。隨著我們增加更多再生能源和儲能資產、延長無碳核電機組的使用壽命，以及審慎投資清潔天然氣以更好地服務於我們不斷增長的客戶群，發電支出將在計劃後期大幅增加。展望未來，我們資本計畫中約90%的電力投資將符合高效的回收機制，這對於維持強勁的資產負債表、緩解監管滯後以及平滑客戶電價影響至關重要。

Moving to Slide 13, our ability to execute our robust capital program is underpinned by a healthy balance sheet, and we remain committed to our current credit ratings. With that in mind, we're introducing modest equity to fund the increase in capital plan we announced today. We expect to raise $500 million annually over the 5-year plan starting in 2024, using at the market and dividend reinvestment programs.

轉到第13張投影片，我們執行穩健資本計畫的能力得益於健康的資產負債表，並且我們仍然致力於維持目前的信用評級。考慮到這一點，我們將引入適度的股權融資，以支持我們今天宣布的資本增加計劃。我們預計從2024年開始的五年計畫中，每年將籌集5億美元，用於市場融資和股息再投資計畫。

Turning to FFO to debt. We have provided a walk up, showing the path to achieve our 14% target by the end of '24. Compared to 2023, we expect improvements from normal weather, rate case activity, the collection of remaining deferred fuel balances, the monetization of nuclear PTCs and equity issuances under the DRIP and ATM programs. These credit supportive drivers give us confidence in achieving 14% FFO to debt in 2024 and a minimum of 14% over the long term.

談到營運現金流與負債比率。我們已提供初步數據，展示了在2024年底前實現14%目標的途徑。與2023年相比，我們預計正常的天氣狀況、費率案例活動、剩餘遞延燃料餘額的收取、核電PTC的貨幣化以及DRIP和ATM計劃下的股票發行將帶來改善。這些信貸支持驅動因素使我們有信心在2024年實現14%的營運現金流與負債比率，並長期至少達到14%。

Let me talk a bit more about the nuclear PTC, an important element of the Inflation Reduction Act that will provide substantial savings to our customers over time. As an operator of 11 low-cost nuclear units in the Carolinas, we expect to qualify for several hundred million dollars per year of nuclear PTCs beginning in '24. We intend to monetize the credits in the transferability markets established by the IRA. In North Carolina, we worked with the public staff on a settlement regarding the treatment of nuclear PTCs that was approved in our DEC rate case order last year. We will flow back the benefits to customers over a 4-year amortization period. This treatment allows customers to benefit from bill reductions over time and is supportive of the utility's credit metrics.

讓我再多談談核能電力抵免 (PTC)，它是《通膨削減法案》的重要組成部分，將長期為我們的客戶帶來可觀的節省。作為卡羅萊納州11台低成本核電機組的營運商，我們預計從2024年開始每年將有資格獲得數億美元的核能電力抵免 (PTC)。我們計劃在IRA建立的可轉讓市場中將這些抵免額度貨幣化。在北卡羅來納州，我們與公共部門工作人員就核能電力抵免 (PTC) 的處理方式達成和解，該和解已於去年在我們的DEC費率案判決中得到批准。我們將在4年的攤銷期間將這些收益回饋給客戶。這種處理方式使客戶能夠長期享受帳單減少的益處，並支持公用事業公司的抵免指標。

Moving to Slide 14, our robust capital plan, strong customer growth and constructive jurisdictions provide a compelling growth story. And our commitment to the dividend remains unchanged. We understand its importance to our shareholders, and 2024 marks the 98th consecutive year of paying a quarterly cash dividend. We intend to keep growing our dividend, balancing the payout ratio with the need to fund our capital plan. Over the next 5 years, we anticipate a steady decline in the payout ratio, and we are adjusting our target payout ratio to 60% to 70% from 65% to 75%. This updated range provides additional financial flexibility, minimizes external equity needs over time and is more consistent with the company investing at our current pace. As always, dividends will be subject to approval by the Board of Directors.

翻到第14張投影片，我們穩健的資本計畫、強勁的客戶成長和建設性的司法管轄區構成了引人入勝的成長故事。我們對股利的承諾始終如一。我們深知股利對股東的重要性，2024年是我們連續第98年支付季度現金股利。我們計劃繼續提高股息，在派息率與資本計劃的資金需求之間取得平衡。未來五年，我們預期派息率將穩定下降，因此我們將目標派息率從65%至75%調整為60%至70%。這項調整後的股利率區間提供了更大的財務靈活性，最大限度地減少了公司長期的外部股權需求，並更符合公司目前的投資節奏。與以往一樣，股利分配需經董事會批准。

In closing, 2023 was a year of execution, and we have tremendous momentum as we head into 2024. The fundamentals of our business are stronger than ever, giving us confidence in our ability to deliver sustainable value and 5% to 7% growth through 2028. With that, we'll open the line for your questions.

最後，2023年是執行的一年，邁向2024年，我們擁有巨大的發展動能。我們業務的基本面比以往任何時候都更加強勁，這讓我們有信心實現可持續的價值，並在2028年實現5%到7%的成長。至此，我們將開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Shar Pourreza of Guggenheim Partners.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自古根漢合夥公司的 Shar Pourreza。

Just on the CapEx expectations, the $8 billion increase reflects "obviously an early estimate of the Carolina IRP filing at the end of March." Can you just maybe elaborate on you mean by early? So what scenario is embedded? Is there room for upside? And then to what extent does the plan include IRPs you'll be filing this year in Indiana and Kentucky?

就資本支出預期而言，80億美元的增幅「顯然是對3月底卡羅來納州IRP申請的初步估計」。您能否詳細說明一下「早期」的含義？那麼，具體情況是什麼呢？還有上漲空間嗎？此外，該計劃在多大程度上涵蓋了您今年將在印第安納州和肯塔基州提交的IRP？

An early estimate would say we've begun to contemplate what the January IRP includes. And I think you've seen us demonstrate that we've not only seen an increase in megawatts, but frankly, we've seen an increase in price for certain of the resources that we're adding. But we believe that capital plan is subject to continued refinement, not only as we move through regulatory process in the Carolinas, but we will introduce more around Indiana.

初步估計，我們已經開始考慮1月綜合資源計畫（IRP）的具體內容。我想各位已經看到，我們不僅看到了兆瓦數的增加，而且坦白說，我們看到新增某些資源的價格也上漲了。但我們認為，資本計畫仍需持續改善，不僅在卡羅萊納州推動監管程序，還將在印第安納州推出更多相關措施。

We have a 10-year site plan that we're filing in Florida this year. So refinement will continue with the capital plan. But what I would leave you with, Shar, is we have a wealth of opportunities. I mean there is growth that is strong throughout all of our service territories, and we'll be making, along with our regulators, the decisions on reliability, affordability increasingly clean as we move through these IRPs. So just a really strong growth story for Duke.

我們今年將在佛羅裡達州提交為期十年的場地規劃。因此，資本規劃將持續改善。但Shar，我想告訴你的是，我們有豐富的機會。我的意思是，我們所有服務區域的成長都十分強勁，隨著我們推進這些綜合資源計劃（IRP），我們將與監管機構一起，在可靠性和可負擔性方面做出更加清晰的決策。所以，杜克能源的成長前景非常強勁。

Got it, okay. So more to come. And then just, Lynn, on the nuclear PTC, it's a material driver of that FFO. I guess what are you seeing in sort of that transferability market from a demand perspective? What discounts are you seeing? And then like we're getting questions on this all morning is like how do you price in the risk of an IRA repeal, and in the worst-case scenario, can you make up that lost FFO?

明白了，好的。接下來還有更多。 Lynn，關於核PTC，它是FFO（營運資金）的重要驅動因素。我想從需求角度來看，您在可轉讓性市場中看到了什麼？您看到了哪些折扣？然後，就像我們整個上午都在問這個問題一樣，您如何評估IRA廢除的風險？在最壞的情況下，您能彌補損失的FFO嗎？

Yes. So a couple of things. On the transferability market, Shar, we have begun to test that market. We had a pilot transferability transaction in 2023. The discount on the transferability was right within our planning range. So very strong response to that initial test, and the treasury group and team are already working on how we might execute in 2024 as well. So we do believe the market is developing. And I think around the industry, you've seen similar transactions executed in an effective way.

是的。有幾件事。關於可轉讓性市場，Shar，我們已經開始測試這個市場了。我們在2023年進行了一項試點可轉讓性交易。可轉讓性的折扣正好在我們的計劃範圍內。所以，初步測試的反應非常熱烈，財務團隊也已經在研究如何在2024年實施。所以我們確實相信這個市場正在發展。我認為在整個行業中，你已經看到了類似的交易以有效的方式執行。

On a potential repeal, what I would say to you is we continue to be very engaged with policymakers at the federal and state level around the need for infrastructure as we continue to pursue growth, onshoring of U.S. manufacturing, leadership in artificial intelligence, battery manufacturing, EVs, et cetera. And we believe there's a lot of support to continue to build that infrastructure and to build it at a price that's affordable. And the point I would emphasize for us on tax credits around infrastructure, it goes directly to customers. It reduces price over time to customers, dollar for dollar. So I believe both of those messages continue to resonate with policymakers and we'll continue to make them. I think it's essential that we keep moving on this infrastructure build in order to serve the growth that we're seeing in our service territories.

關於可能的廢除，我想說的是，在我們繼續追求成長、美國製造業回流、在人工智慧、電池製造、電動車等領域保持領先地位的同時，我們將繼續與聯邦和州一級的政策制定者密切合作，探討基礎設施建設的需求。我們相信，我們會得到很多支持，繼續建造這些基礎設施，並以可負擔的價格進行建設。我想強調的是，關於基礎設施的稅收抵免，這些抵免直接惠及消費者。隨著時間的推移，它會降低消費者的價格，一分錢一分貨。所以我相信，這兩種訊息都會繼續引起政策制定者的共鳴，我們也會繼續傳達。我認為，為了服務我們服務地區的成長，我們必須繼續推動基礎設施建設。

On the impact of credit metrics, our goal, Shar, is to be minimum of 14%. So even in the event that the credits could be impacted in some way over time, we still believe we'll have time to adjust. We'll look at our overall plans and continue to run our business with a commitment to our balance sheet and with a strong balance sheet to pursue the growth.

關於信貸指標的影響，我們的目標是Shar至少達到14%。因此，即使信貸可能會隨著時間的推移而受到某種影響，我們仍然相信我們有時間進行調整。我們將審視我們的整體計劃，並繼續致力於經營我們的業務，致力於維護我們的資產負債表，並以強勁的資產負債表來追求成長。

Our next question comes from Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Julien Dumoulin-Smith。

Lynn and team. Look, I just wanted to follow up on the last question a little bit in the same focus on the nuclear PTCs here, just in as much as can you discuss the reductions in the forecasted rate base? Obviously, an increase in CapEx year-to-date and obviously, there's some timing-related matters as it pertains to the nuclear PTC impact in rate base. But can you talk to what other factors might be impacting rate base, not just in the near year here, but through the forecast as you think about the puts and takes here?

Lynn 和團隊。您好，我想稍微跟進一下最後一個問題，同樣關注核能 PTC，您能否討論一下預測利率基數的下降？顯然，年初至今的資本支出有所增加，而且顯然，核能 PTC 對利率基數的影響與時間因素有關。但是，您能否談談還有哪些因素可能會影響利率基數？不只是近一年，還包括預測中您考慮的利弊？

Yes. So maybe a couple of things. On the capital side, Julien, much as Shar described, we'll continue to refine these with the wealth of opportunities. I do believe we'll have an opportunity to continue to introduce really strong capital in all of our jurisdictions. But on translating to rate base growth, what we show you with rate base is capital offset by tax attributes. So the nuclear PTCs, because we're amortizing them over a 4-year period in a very credit-supportive way, we have a reduction in rate base as a result of that. So this is an opportunity for us to do both, grow and maintain the strength of the balance sheet. And we feel like we have developed a very constructive settlement in North Carolina to achieve exactly that.

是的。所以可能有幾件事。在資本方面，朱利安，正如沙爾所描述的，我們將繼續利用豐富的機會來完善這些措施。我相信我們有機會繼續在我們所有的管轄區引入真正強大的資本。但就利率基數成長而言，我們向您展示的利率基數是用稅收屬性抵銷的資本。因此，對於核能PTC，由於我們以非常有利於信貸的方式在4年內攤銷，因此我們的利率基數有所降低。所以，這對我們來說是一個雙管齊下的機會，既能成長，又能維持資產負債表的強勁。我們覺得我們已經在北卡羅來納州達成了一項非常有建設性的協議，以實現這一目標。

Yes. No, that makes sense. There's just nothing else that's impacting that. And then can you discuss the revised load growth outlook, right? I get 2% is a real acceleration from the 0.5% to 1% from last year. And ultimately, I get that last year had down load, if you will. So it's a new starting point. But just to reconcile a little bit of the load growth commentary, especially considering the commentary from the last call here, what has sort of reaccelerated? How do you think about both the near year and the longer term here, if you will, just a little bit more?

是的。不，這說得通。沒有其他因素影響這一點。然後，您能討論一下修訂後的負荷成長前景嗎？我認為2%是實際加速，比去年的0.5%到1%有提升。最後，我知道去年的負荷有所下降，如果您願意的話。所以這是一個新的起點。但為了協調負載成長的評論，特別是考慮到上次電話會議的評論，是什麼再次加速了？您如何看待近期和長期的成長？請再多說一點。

Yes. Thank you, Julien. I'm going to turn to Brian to discuss load.

是的。謝謝你，朱利安。接下來我要找布萊恩討論一下負載問題。

So when we look at 2024, the setup on load growth is really underpinned by 3 main points. So you start with economic development visibility we have in 2024, projects that are in late-stage construction that are coming online. And we've got that on one of our slides. And that represents a little under a 1% growth as we look into 2024. On the residential side of things, we've seen this normalization coming out of COVID of return to the office, right? During COVID, we had a lot of residential usage at homes. As we returned to the office, you saw this kind of lower usage at homes, more in commercial businesses. And the back part of 2023, we saw that level out. So we will start growing residential more in line with customer migration trends, which has been really strong, 1.7%, 1.8% in recent years. And so residential growth, we expect to be on an upward trajectory.

因此，展望2024年，負荷成長的設定實際上是基於三個主要因素。首先，我們先從2024年的經濟發展可預見性開始，看看那些處於後期建設階段並即將上線的項目。我們在一張投影片中已經提到了這一點。展望2024年，這代表著略低於1%的成長率。在住宅方面，我們看到了新冠疫情和復工復產帶來的正常化，對吧？在新冠疫情期間，我們有許多住宅用電。隨著人們重返辦公室，你會發現住宅用電下降，而商業用電則增加。在2023年下半年，我們看到了這一水準的下降。因此，我們將開始根據客戶遷移趨勢來增加住宅用電，近年來，客戶遷移趨勢一直非常強勁，分別達到了1.7%和1.8%。因此，我們預期住宅用電成長將呈上升趨勢。

And then lastly, the existing C&I customers, where we saw a reduction in load in 2023 and when we talked about it throughout the year, those customers are very optimistic in 2024. They've kind of seen a rebound happening maybe mid-ish year. So those 3 factors give us confidence that 2% load growth in '24 is definitely in our sights.

最後，對於現有的工商業客戶，我們看到2023年的負荷有所下降，而且我們全年都在討論這個問題，這些客戶對2024年非常樂觀。他們似乎已經看到了年中左右出現的反彈。因此，這三個因素讓我們有信心，2024年2%的負荷成長絕對是我們所能達到的。

And over the long term, Julien, all of the things that Brian talked about, right, we're going to continue to experience customer migration. Our existing customer base continues to demonstrate some strength over the 5-year period. So probably the most new or significant driver is this economic development load. And we've given you a range of what we're seeing, and what we've put on the slide are the things that we believe have a high degree of confidence of being achieved. So dirt is moving, letters of agreement have been signed and we're moving forward. And so the combination of our existing base population migration and the strong economic development gave us confidence to raise the long-term growth rate.

朱利安，布萊恩談到的長期來看，我們將繼續經歷客戶遷移。我們現有的客戶群在未來五年內將持續展現出一定的實力。因此，經濟發展負荷可能是最新或最重要的驅動力。我們已經向您介紹了我們所看到的一系列情況，我們列出的是我們認為有很高信心實現的目標。因此，土地正在遷移，協議書已經簽署，我們正在向前邁進。因此，我們現有的人口遷移基礎和強勁的經濟發展相結合，讓我們有信心提高長期成長率。

Got it. Excellent. So it sounds like things have reaccelerated here, even just quarter-over-quarter even, just on the margins?

明白了。太好了。這麼說來，這方面的成長似乎又加速了，甚至只是環比成長，只是略有提升？

Well, and I think, Julien, we were continuing to grapple with this economic development all through '23 and came to our filing here in the Carolinas in January really reckoning with where we think this is going. So we have continued to mature our own thinking, working with our customers, working with the prospects coming to the area, and believe this represents a really solid range. And when we're looking at that range, the growth is going to come along with it on megawatt hours, and that's what you're seeing in our update.

嗯，朱利安，我想，我們整個2023年都在努力應對經濟發展的形勢，今年1月我們在卡羅來納州提交文件時，認真思考了未來的發展方向。因此，我們不斷完善自身思路，與客戶合作，與即將來到該地區的潛在客戶合作，並相信這代表著一個非常穩固的區間。當我們著眼於這個區間時，兆瓦時的增長也會隨之而來，這就是您在我們的更新中看到的。

Our next question comes from Steve Fleishman of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steve Fleishman。

Just one more on the nuclear PTC. The -- any sense on when we're actually going to get details from the treasury and setting it? Any update there?

關於核PTC，還有一點想問。請問什麼時候才能從財政部獲得詳細資訊並進行設定？有什麼最新進展嗎？

Steve, our best intel is the first half of the year. So we're thinking kind of sometime in Q2 we would get the final guidance from treasury, and I think that's the general consensus.

史蒂夫，我們最好的情報是上半年。所以我們預計大概在第二季的某個時候，我們會從財務部門得到最終的指引，我認為這是普遍的共識。

Okay. And obviously, you need that to then go do the monetization, I assume?

好的。那麼，顯然你需要它來實現盈利，對吧？

Sure. Sure.

當然。當然。

Okay. On the financing, the equity plan, the DRIP and ATM, any kind of color on how much of that can be done through DRIP relative to ATM?

好的。關於融資、股權計劃、直接投資計劃 (DRIP) 和 ATM，您能具體說明一下，相對於 ATM，透過 DRIP 可以實現多少嗎？

Yes. So Steve, you should think about DRIP as being about $200 million a year. It's about 40% of it.

是的。史蒂夫，你應該把DRIP想像成每年2億美元左右。這大概佔了40%。

And then just on the gas plant filing in the Carolinas, what -- when would these -- when would you be roughly targeting for these plants to come online?

然後，就卡羅來納州的天然氣工廠申請而言，您預計這些工廠何時會投產？

So '28, '29, Steve. Combined cycle plants, 2 in '28 -- or I'm sorry, CTs 2 in '28, CCs 1 in '28, 1 in '29.

所以是28、29年，史蒂夫。聯合循環電廠，28年建了2座－或者不好意思，應該是28年蓋了2座聯合循環電廠，1座聯合循環電廠，1929年建了1座。

Okay. But obviously, some of the capital would be hitting in AFDC, hitting within the end of (inaudible)?

好的。但顯然，部分資金會在AFDC期間投入，在（聽不清楚）結束前投入？

Yes. You start to see it. The largest capital spend is in the last couple of years of construction, as you know, from history on these. But you'll see us beginning to ramp up well within this 5-year period.

是的，你開始看到了。史上最大的資本支出是在過去幾年的建設。但你會看到我們在這五年內開始穩定成長。

Our next question comes from David Arcaro of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的戴維·阿卡羅。

As we think about the 1.5% to 2% load growth, I was just curious, is that concentrated in certain service territories more than others? Are you seeing certain states growing faster versus others in your footprint?

當我們考慮1.5%到2%的負載成長時，我很好奇，這種成長是否集中在某些服務區域？您是否發現某些州的成長速度比其他州更快？

David, I would think about the Carolinas has seen the largest portion of the economic development prospects we see. But we do see healthy growth across our jurisdictions. I mean Indiana, with this restoring of manufacturing, has really seen economic development growing. Florida continues to grow in a really strong way at 2% customer migration trends, as well as the commercial businesses that support it. So I would say Carolinas is slightly ahead of the others, but all have really good growth.

戴維，我認為卡羅萊納州的經濟發展前景最為樂觀。但我們確實看到我們轄區內經濟都在健康成長。我的意思是，隨著製造業的復甦，印第安納州的經濟發展確實有所成長。佛羅裡達州的客戶遷移趨勢以及支持此趨勢的商業活動持續保持強勁成長，成長率高達2%。所以我認為卡羅萊納州略微領先其他州，但其他州的成長勢頭都非常好。

Okay. Got it. Not several percentage points faster in any specific state, but fairly tightly grouped around there?

好的。明白了。不是在某個特定州快幾個百分點，而是在那個州的分佈相當緊密？

Yes. And David, I would say, building on what Brian said, residential growth has been stronger in the Carolinas and Florida. Commercial and industrial in the Midwest has been good, and it's also been good in the Carolinas. So the growth kind of varies by customer class, but I would go back to where I commented a moment ago, we have a wealth of opportunities. And these are not only good for Duke Energy's growth, but they're good for our states. It's capital investment, it's job creation, supply chain is coming with a lot of these manufacturers. So it's good for the service territories that we are serving.

是的。大衛，我想說，根據布萊恩的說法，卡羅萊納州和佛羅裡達州的住宅成長更為強勁。中西部地區的商業和工業發展良好，卡羅萊納州也是如此。所以，成長情況因客戶群而異，但我想回到我剛才的評論，我們擁有大量的機會。這些機會不僅有利於杜克能源的成長，也有利於我們各州的發展。這些機會包括資本投資、創造就業機會，以及許多製造商的供應鏈。所以，這對我們服務的服務區域來說都是有利的。

Understood. Yes, that's helpful. And I'm not sure if you gave this level of color, but just going forward, as you're thinking about all of these other CapEx opportunities to add to the plan, how are you thinking about financing that? Is there a rule of thumb for how much incremental equity you would need kind of per dollar of CapEx as you're expanding the investment going forward?

明白了。是的，這很有幫助。我不確定您是否已經詳細說明了，但展望未來，當您考慮將所有這些其他資本支出機會添加到計劃中時，您打算如何融資？隨著未來投資的擴大，對於每一美元資本支出需要多少增量股本，是否有一個經驗法則？

David, I think it's premature to talk about that because the first thing that we'll do is run through capital optimization and allocation, putting the capital in the area that both delivers the most customer value and is delivering the best returns. And I think we'll have more on this refinement of capital as we move through IRP approvals in the Carolinas this year and then Indiana next year, 10-year site plan as well. So we'll continue to keep you updated, and our commitment remains to growth and a strong balance sheet.

戴維，我認為現在談論這個還為時過早，因為我們要做的第一件事是進行資本優化和配置，將資本投入到既能創造最大客戶價值又能帶來最佳回報的領域。我認為，隨著我們今年在卡羅萊納州和明年在印第安納州獲得IRP審批，以及10年廠址規劃的審批，我們將在資本優化方面有更多進展。因此，我們會持續向您通報最新情況，我們仍將致力於成長和維持強勁的資產負債表。

The next question comes from Nicholas Campanella of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的尼古拉斯·坎帕內拉。

So I guess just the payout ratio, you're taking that down, obviously, which seems very prudent. I know you've already been kind of growing into a lower payout ratio over time. The dividend growth has been lower than the EPS growth here. So just I'm kind of wondering just how to think about your 5% to 7% EPS CAGR now, like where you are in that range? Are you at the high, low or midpoint of that? And then when do you get back into this kind of 60% to 70% payout ratio in the plan?

所以我想，您顯然正在降低派息率，這似乎非常謹慎。我知道隨著時間的推移，您的派息率已經下降。股息成長率一直低於每股收益成長率。所以，我有點好奇，您現在如何看待5%到7%的每股盈餘複合年增長率？您目前處於這個區間的哪個位置？是處於高點、低點還是中間點？那麼您計劃中的派息率什麼時候會回到60%到70%的水平？

Yes. So Nick, pulling that all together, we're very confident in our 5% to 7% growth rate. We have been building the capital plan to accomplish that as well as the regulatory mechanisms for several years. And so what we're putting in front of you, we have a high degree of confidence on. And as a result of that, we see the payout ratio declining over the next 5 years. We'll be under 70% in 2024. And so as we look at our commitment to the dividend, we intend to continue growing it. We're committed to the dividend, as we have been for a long period of time, but believe in this moment with the level of capital that we have that introducing some financial flexibility in our range so that we can make good choices around dividend, capital and growth is just prudent. And so as you know, we'll look at dividend every year. The Board is involved in that approval process. But given the total composition of growth in dividend, we believe a 60% to 70% payout ratio is appropriate at this point.

是的。尼克，綜合以上這些，我們對5%到7%的成長率非常有信心。為了實現這一目標，我們多年來一直在製定資本計劃和監管機制。因此，我們對擺在大家面前的方案充滿信心。因此，我們預計未來五年的派息率將會下降。到2024年，我們的派息率將低於70%。因此，在考慮股利承諾時，我們打算繼續提高股利。我們長期以來一直致力於派息，但考慮到我們目前的資本水平，在現有範圍內引入一些財務靈活性，以便我們能夠在股息、資本和增長方面做出明智的選擇，是審慎之舉。如大家所知，我們每年都會考慮股利。董事會參與了審批流程。但考慮到股息成長的整體組成，我們認為目前60%到70%的股息率是適當的。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then I guess just -- I know you just recently filed in Florida. You have a history of -- there's a history of settlements in that state and constructive outcomes. Is just anything kind of changing in regulatory strategy that wouldn't allow you to pursue another settlement in the future?

好的，我很感激。然後我想…我知道你最近剛在佛羅裡達州提起訴訟。你之前在佛羅裡達州有過和解，並且取得了建設性的結果。監管策略方面是否有任何變化，導致你無法在未來尋求和解？

No, Nick, what we have accomplished so far is procedurally what we need to do to provide notice, and the filing would follow late March, early April. As you know, we have a history of engaging with intervening parties in all of our jurisdictions as part of the regulatory process, and we will do -- endeavor to do that in Florida as well. And we'll keep you posted every step of the way. It's a very constructive jurisdiction in Florida, understanding the need for infrastructure to balance the growth that the state is maintaining or achieving, and also maintaining critical infrastructure investment for reliability, storm response, et cetera. So we'll look forward to keeping you updated on the rate case.

不，尼克，我們目前完成的只是程序上需要做的通知，申請提交將在三月底四月初進行。如你所知，作為監管流程的一部分，我們一直與所有司法管轄區的介入方進行溝通，我們也將努力在佛羅裡達州這樣做。我們會隨時向你通報進度。佛羅裡達州是一個非常有建設性的司法管轄區，它理解基礎設施建設的必要性，以平衡該州正在維持或實現的成長，同時也維護關鍵的基礎設施投資，以確保可靠性、風暴反應等等。因此，我們期待向你通報費率案的最新進展。

The next question is from Durgesh Chopra of Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Durgesh Chopra。

Maybe just I think the equity $500 million, $2.5 million total for the plan versus the CapEx raise is towards the low end? I think you might have said 30% to 50% fundable equity in the past. So maybe just a little bit more color on kind of what puts you at that low end of the range since sort of we discussed this in November last year?

或許我認為，5億美元的股權，加上250萬美元的資本支出，這個計畫的總額已經接近低端了？您之前可能說過30%到50%的可融資股權。所以，能否再詳細解釋一下，是什麼讓您處於這個低端？我們去年11月討論過這個問題。

Yes, Durgesh, I think about all of these variables, the capital, the regulatory outcomes, the equity issuance, the fact that we see nuclear PTC is something that we've been able to negotiate in a credit-supportive way. You've got all of those variables that we evaluate in establishing the plan that we have in front of you and believe that at this level, that 30% ratio gives us the best match between the growth we're trying to achieve as well as the strength of the balance sheet. And so that will be -- that's always our goal is to achieve both for investors, and we believe we've accomplished that.

是的，杜爾格甚，我考慮了所有這些變量，包括資本、監管結果、股票發行，以及我們能夠以信貸支持的方式協商核能PTC。在製定我們目前製定的計劃時，我們評估了所有這些變量，並相信在這個水平上，30%的比例能夠讓我們在努力實現的增長和資產負債表的強勁程度之間實現最佳匹配。因此，我們的目標始終是為投資者實現這兩者，我們相信我們已經實現了這一目標。

That's helpful. And then the rate base is -- when I look at year-over-year growth rate in rate base, it's pretty healthy. It's within your 5% to 7% EPS -- long-term EPS growth guidance. Do we think about annual EPS growth rates within that range as well in that 5% to 7% range? Or is that more kind of a CAGR approach and back-end weighted?

這很有幫助。然後，利率基數是——當我查看利率基數的同比增長率時，它相當健康。它符合您5%到7%的每股盈餘—長期每股盈餘成長指引。我們是否也考慮過這個範圍內的年度每股盈餘成長率，以及5%到7%的範圍內？或者這更像是一種複合年增長率方法和後端加權？

No, Durgesh, we endeavor to hit it every year, every year. And that's how we plan our investments, that's how we plan our strategies around regulatory and otherwise. And so that's how I would share it with you, year-over-year.

不，杜爾格甚，我們每年都努力實現這個目標。這就是我們規劃投資的方式，也是我們規劃監管及其他策略的方式。這就是我逐年與大家分享的內容。

And our next question is from Ross Fowler of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的羅斯·福勒。

So first one, maybe to follow up on Nick's question, just shifting back to Indiana. How are you thinking about the timing and what considerations should we be thinking about for the Indiana rate case?

那麼首先，或許可以繼續回答Nick的問題，回到印第安納。您覺得時機如何？對於印第安納州的利率問題，我們應該考慮哪些因素？

So Ross, we evaluate, as you know, periodically where we are with capital investment, rate case cycle. And in Indiana, we have a lot of investment in riders, but some of those riders are 80% of the investment. So we need a general base rate case to pick up the other 20%. We also have in front of us in Indiana, CPCNs for generation that are in our regulatory mines or regulatory calendar. So we'll continue to evaluate that, what is the right timing, when do we go in? How does it relate to other things that we're trying to accomplish in Indiana? And by flagging it for you in this call, we're indicating that it's under review, and we'll keep you posted as we get closer to a final decision.

羅斯，如你所知，我們會定期評估我們的資本投資和費率方案週期。在印第安納州，我們在附加條款上投入了大量資金，但其中一些附加條款占到了總投資的80%。因此，我們需要一個通用的基本費率方案來彌補剩餘的20%。在印第安納州，我們也面臨一些發電廠的CPCN（公共採購控制網路），這些CPCN已納入我們的監管礦場或監管日程。因此，我們會繼續評估這個問題，確定適當的時機，我們什麼時候開始？這與我們試圖在印第安納州完成的其他工作有何關聯？我們在本次電話會議上指出這一點，表明它正在審核中，我們將在接近最終決定時及時告知您。

And then maybe one for you, Brian. But as I look at the bridge to 2024, over 40% of that is coming from this $0.12 of Other. And I think I get the higher interest rates impact, and maybe can you scale the -- or scope the Other things in there for me? There's a lower tax rate and then there's return from investments. And I think that's probably coming from either Bison, the insurance side, or the NMC stuff in Saudi Arab around Petrochem? Or how do I think about that as I look at by 2024?

布萊恩，也許還有一個建議給你。但就我2024年的情況來看，超過40%的收益來自這0.12美元的「其他」業務。我想我已經了解了更高的利率帶來的影響，你能幫我估算一下——或者說，看看其中的其他因素嗎？稅率更低，而且還有投資報酬。我覺得這些回報可能來自Bison、保險業務，或是沙烏地阿拉伯國家石油公司（NMC）在石化領域的業務？或者，就2024年的情況來看，我該如何看待這些回報？

Yes. I would point to the tax optimization, Ross. In 2023, we had an opportunity for an item in tax optimization that was, I would say, outsized from our normal tax optimization work that was part of our agility efforts, which you would expect us to do. Because we had record mild weather, we were looking at every opportunity to offset that. As we look forward in 2024, we're seeing a more consistent level of tax optimization that we had in previous years. So that's the other major driver in the Other section. But we still have a robust set of tax optimization and our tax team is doing a fabulous work on that front. But that's what I'd point to. And we signaled our agility of $300 million that we were pursuing in 2023. About half of it will be sustainable. And I would point to that tax optimization as about that half that's not sustainable.

是的。羅斯，我想說的是稅務優化。 2023年，我們有機會在稅務優化方面取得突破，這比我們常規的稅務優化工作規模更大，而這正是我們敏捷性工作的一部分，這一點您也預料到了。由於我們遭遇了創紀錄的溫和天氣，我們一直在尋找一切機會來彌補這一不利因素。展望2024年，我們將看到稅務優化的水平比前幾年更加穩定。所以，這是「其他」部分的另一個主要驅動因素。但我們仍然擁有一套強大的稅務優化體系，我們的稅務團隊在這方面做得非常出色。這就是我想指出的。我們宣布了將在2023年實現3億美元敏捷性的目標。其中大約一半將是可持續的。而我認為，稅務優化大約是那一半不可持續的。

This concludes our Q&A session for today. So I'll turn the call back over to Lynn Good for any closing comments.

今天的問答環節到此結束。接下來，我會把電話轉回給Lynn Good，請她做最後總結。

Well, let me close by just thanking everyone for participation today. I know when we do these annual updates, we give you 40 to 50 slides to digest. So we're also available for questions and comments. The IR team, Brian, I'm available, and really appreciate your interest and investment in Duke. Thanks so much.

最後，我想感謝各位今天的參與。我知道，我們做年度更新的時候，會提供40到50張投影片供大家消化。所以我們也歡迎大家提問和評論。投資人關係團隊的Brian，我隨時恭候，非常感謝大家對杜克大學的關注與投入。非常感謝。

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。現在您可以掛斷電話了。