迪士尼 (DIS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to The Walt Disney Company third-quarter 2024 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note today's event is being recorded.

美好的一天，歡迎參加華特迪士尼公司 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意今天的活動正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Alexia Quadrani, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Alexia Quadrani。請繼續。

Good morning. It's my pleasure to welcome everybody to The Walt Disney third-quarter 2024 earnings call. Our press release, Form 10-Q, and management's prepared remarks were issued earlier this morning and are available on our website at www.disney.com/investors.

早安.我很高興歡迎大家參加華特迪士尼 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我們的新聞稿、表格 10-Q 和管理層準備好的評論於今天早上早些時候發布，可在我們的網站 www.disney.com/investors 上獲取。

Today's call is being webcast, and a replay and transcript, as well as the third-quarter earnings presentation, will all be made available on our website after the call. As we previously announced, today's call will follow a new format consisting only of a question-and-answer session.

今天的電話會議正在網路直播，重播和文字記錄以及第三季度收益演示將在電話會議結束後在我們的網站上提供。正如我們之前宣布的，今天的電話會議將採用僅由問答環節組成的新格式。

Joining me this morning are Bob Iger, Disney's Chief Executive Officer; and Hugh Johnston, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天早上和我一起來的還有迪士尼執行長鮑勃艾格 (Bob Iger)。休‧約翰斯頓 (Hugh Johnston)，資深執行副總裁兼財務長。

(Operator Instructions) And with that, operator, we're ready for the first question.

（操作員說明）操作員，我們已經準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Jessica Reif Ehrlich, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）Jessica Reif Ehrlich，美國銀行。

Thank you. I'm going to try to squeeze in two: one on theme parks and one on NBA. So first on theme parks, there's really a lot of moving pieces here. Can you provide color on global park demand and where you expect this protracted weakness? Maybe include the benefit from cruise ships since you have three ships coming on over the next, I guess, 18 months or so. And with the stated fiscal Q4 mid-single-digit decline and the expectation that this will last for several quarters, is that the right level to think about OI as we think about fiscal '25?

謝謝。我將嘗試擠進兩個：一個是主題公園，一個是 NBA。首先是主題樂園，這裡確實有許多令人感動的作品。您能否提供有關全球公園需求的資訊以及您預計這種長期疲軟的情況在哪裡？也許包括遊輪帶來的好處，因為我猜在接下來的 18 個月左右的時間裡將會有三艘遊輪投入使用。鑑於第四財季的中個位數下降以及這種情況將持續幾個季度的預期，這是否是我們在考慮 25 財年時考慮 OI 的正確水平？

And on the NBA, with the rights now complete, you'll likely have several hundred million dollar step-up when the new contract begins in fiscal '26. Are there incremental monetization drivers, including maybe WNBA growth that can make the new contract profitable in the early years? Thank you.

在 NBA，隨著版權現已完成，當新合約在 26 財年開始時，您可能會獲得數億美元的收入。是否存在增量貨幣化驅動因素，包括 WNBA 的成長，可以使新合約在早期獲利？謝謝。

Great. Thanks, Jessica. This is Hugh. Good morning. That was a six-part first question, so I'll try to answer it as best I can.

偉大的。謝謝，傑西卡。這是休.早安.這是一個由六個部分組成的第一個問題，所以我將盡力回答它。

First, just to sort of peel apart Q3, again, I want to emphasize we actually had 2% revenue growth in Q3. The reason obviously is the IP is so strong in our parks. It really does attract a strong audience. And people are reluctant to cancel vacations. So while we saw a slight moderation in demand, I certainly wouldn't call it a significant change.

首先，為了區分第三季度，我想再次強調，我們第三季的營收實際上成長了 2%。原因顯然是我們園區的智慧財產權非常強大。它確實吸引了強大的觀眾。人們不願意取消假期。因此，雖然我們看到需求略有放緩，但我當然不會稱其為重大變化。

That said, 40% of the Experiences business is actually not domestic parks. It's either international parks or consumer products, and that's from an operating income perspective. 60% is domestic parks, including cruise ships.

也就是說，40%的體驗業務其實不是國內公園。要嘛是國際公園，要嘛是消費品，這是從營業收入的角度來看的。 60%是國內公園，包括遊輪。

Within that, we saw attendance flat in the quarter and we saw per caps up a little bit. We expect to see a flattish revenue number in Q4 coming out of the parks. And as we mentioned in -- earlier in the letter, really just a few quarters. So I don't think I'd refer to it as protracted, but just a couple of quarters of likely similar results.

其中，我們看到本季的出勤率持平，但人均上限略有上升。我們預計第四季公園的營收數據將持平。正如我們在信中前面提到的，實際上只有幾個季度。因此，我認為我不會將其稱為“曠日持久”，而只是幾個季度可能出現的類似結果。

Now keep in mind, we do have some expenses attached to our ships coming in, and that will affect us a bit in '24 and a bit in '25. But overall, I would just call this as a bit of a slowdown that's being more than offset by the Entertainment business, both what we've seen so far and our expectations for Moana 2 as well as Mufasa.

現在請記住，我們的船隻確實有一些附加費用，這將在 24 年和 25 年對我們產生一些影響。但總體而言，我認為這是一種放緩，但被娛樂業務所抵消，無論是我們迄今為止所看到的情況還是我們對《莫阿娜 2》和《木法沙》的期望。

Regarding the NBA deal, Jessica, first of all, let me just remind you and everyone that the deal doesn't kick in next year. It's a year later. We have one more year on the current deal.

關於NBA的交易，潔西卡，首先我要提醒大家，這筆交易不會在明年生效。已經是一年後的事了。我們目前的協議還有一年。

And as we looked at it, first of all, one goal was to maintain what we call the A package, which means we've got the finals for 11 more years where now we have the finals for 12 years. And they drive significant value for us.

正如我們所看到的，首先，一個目標是維持我們所說的 A 套餐，這意味著我們還有 11 年的總決賽時間，而現在我們有 12 年的總決賽時間。他們為我們帶來了巨大的價值。

Also, overall, the deal reflects the value of live programming. We know that that's been an advertiser's delight and also an audience delight. It also reflects the growing value of basketball and the growing value of women's sports. There's a large WNBA component to this.

此外，總體而言，這筆交易反映了直播節目的價值。我們知道，這是廣告商和觀眾的喜悅。這也體現了籃球運動價值的不斷增長和女子運動價值的不斷增長。這其中有很大的WNBA成分。

Also, as part of this deal and has been the strategy of ESPN for a while, to lock in sports rights for a long period of time, it secures our ability to bring ESPN in the digital direction, particularly as we look to launch flagship some time at the end of 2025. So we believe that by the time this kicks in, in a year from now, that a lot of the pieces will be in place in terms of driving more advertising revenue, more distribution revenue moving to digital.

此外，作為這筆交易的一部分，並且長期鎖定體育賽事轉播權一直是 ESPN 的策略，這確保了我們將 ESPN 推向數位化方向的能力，特別是當我們希望推出一些旗艦產品時時間是2025 年底。因此，我們相信，到這一年開始時，在推動更多廣告收入、更多發行收入轉向數位方面，許多措施都將到位。

And another thing that we've done here is we've secured international rights, particularly to the finals, not in every market around the world, but in most markets. And that will drive some added revenue as well. Not going to be specific about the profitability in the early years, but there's tremendous value in this deal.

我們在這裡所做的另一件事是，我們已經獲得了國際轉播權，特別是決賽的轉播權，不是在全球每個市場，而是在大多數市場。這也將帶來一些額外的收入。不會具體說明早期的獲利能力，但這筆交易具有巨大的價值。

Ben Swinburne, Morgan Stanley.

本‧斯威本，摩根士丹利。

Thank you. Good morning. Maybe for Bob, I wanted to ask you about sort of the outlook for Disney+, both in the context of where the product is going, but also how this becomes a significant earnings contributor to the company as you look ahead.

謝謝。早安.也許對鮑伯來說，我想問你有關迪士尼+的前景，既包括產品的發展方向，也包括展望未來，它如何成為公司的重要獲利貢獻者。

When we look at the product, it's really broadening. You've got -- obviously brought in Hulu. Now you're adding news, a lot of sports, ESPN coming in. You've added the international NBA rights to the product overseas.

當我們看產品時，它確實在拓寬。顯然你已經引入了Hulu。現在您正在添加新聞、大量體育賽事、ESPN。

What's the vision here? And in your mind, does it support both continued subscriber growth and pricing power? I think there's probably some concern out there that the recent price increases might face some consumer pushback. So I'd love to get your thoughts on that big topic.

這裡的願景是什麼？在您看來，它是否支援用戶的持續成長和定價能力？我認為可能有人擔心最近的價格上漲可能會面臨一些消費者的抵制。所以我很想了解您對這個大主題的想法。

And then I just wanted to clarify, Hugh, when you say flattish revenue Q4, are you talking about at the Experiences segment level? Or is that just the domestic parks comment? I just wanted to clarify. Thank you.

然後我想澄清一下，休，當你說第四季營收持平時，你指的是體驗細分市場層面嗎？還是只是國內公園的評論？我只是想澄清一下。謝謝。

Well, let me start by saying that what we've been seeing with streaming is significant success driven largely by the success of our creativity. Whether it's on the television side, believe me, the company had 183 Emmy nominations, for instance, led by shows like Shogun and The Bear and Abbott Elementary and Only Murders in the Building, and I can go on and on.

好吧，首先我要說的是，我們在串流媒體領域所看到的巨大成功很大程度上是由我們創造力的成功所推動的。相信我，無論是在電視方面，該公司都獲得了183 項艾美獎提名，其中包括《幕府將軍》、《熊和雅培小學》和《大樓裡的唯一謀殺案》等節目，我可以繼續說下去。

And obviously, on top of the television success, creatively, we've had huge success in the motion picture front recently. And when you look at what the current motion picture lineup drives in terms of value on streaming, it's profound.

顯然，除了電視方面的成功之外，我們最近在電影方面也取得了巨大的成功。當你看看當前的電影陣容在串流媒體價值方面所帶來的影響時，你會發現這是意義深遠的。

So Inside Out -- and it's in our comments today -- the first film has had tremendous consumption since the first trailer for Inside Out 2 launched in November. The same thing is true for the early Deadpool movies, for the early Planet of the Apes movies. I could go on and on.

所以《腦筋急轉彎》——正如我們今天的評論所言——自從《腦筋急轉彎 2》的第一部預告片於 11 月推出以來，第一部電影就獲得了巨大的消費。對於早期的《死侍》電影和《猩球崛起》電影來說也是如此。我可以繼續下去。

So when we look across our portfolio of IP -- and this includes Disney-branded, FOX-branded, obviously, everything that's on Hulu, programming from FX, programming from ABC, National Geographic -- what we're basically seeing is we're seeing growth in consumption and the popularity of our offerings which gives us the pricing leverage that we believe we have.

因此，當我們審視我們的 IP 組合時——這顯然包括迪士尼品牌、福克斯品牌、Hulu 上的所有內容、FX 節目、ABC 節目、國家地理節目——我們基本上看到的是我們「我們看到消費的成長和我們產品的受歡迎程度，這為我們提供了我們認為擁有的定價槓桿。

So every time we've taken a price increase, we've had only modest churn from that, nothing that we would consider significant. And we believe that as we add these new features, like the channels that we're going to be adding later this year, that -- and the success of our movie slate -- and I'll get into that a little bit more -- that the pricing leverage that we have has actually increased. We're not concerned.

因此，每次我們提價時，我們都只受到了輕微的影響，沒有什麼我們認為重大的。我們相信，當我們添加這些新功能時，例如我們將在今年晚些時候添加的頻道，以及我們電影板的成功，我將進一步討論這一點 - - 我們的定價槓桿實際上已經增加了。我們不擔心。

The goal is to grow engagement on the platform. And what I mean by that is obviously offering a wider variety of programming, which is why we're adding news, why we're adding the ESPN tile to it, while we're bundling aggressively to give consumers the ability to buy across all of our basically creative engines. And we feel very bullish about the future of this business. We're not saying much more about it, except you can expect that it's going to grow nicely in fiscal 2025.

目標是提高平台的參與度。我的意思顯然是提供更廣泛的節目，這就是我們添加新聞、添加 ESPN 板塊的原因，同時我們積極捆綁銷售，讓消費者能夠購買所有節目我們的基本創意引擎。我們對這項業務的未來感到非常樂觀。我們對此並沒有透露太多，但您可以預期它將在 2025 財年實現良好成長。

Now the other thing I wanted to add is that we've been talking a lot about adding the technology features that we need to basically make it a higher-return, higher-margin business and a more successful business. And we're doing that right now.

現在我想補充的另一件事是，我們一直在談論添加我們需要的技術功能，以使其成為更高回報、更高利潤的業務和更成功的業務。我們現在正在這樣做。

We started our password-sharing initiative in June. That kicks in, in earnest in September. By the way, we've had no backlash at all to the notifications that have gone out and to the work that we've already been doing. We know that we need stronger recommendation engines, and we're working on that technology, and we need to make our marketing more efficient. But by adding all of these features, both on the technological side and also on the programming side, we're bullish about the future of this business.

我們在六月開始了密碼共享計劃。這一切將在九月真正開始。順便說一句，我們對已經發出的通知和我們已經在做的工作沒有任何強烈反對。我們知道我們需要更強大的推薦引擎，我們正在研究這項技術，我們需要使我們的行銷更有效率。但透過在技術方面和程式設計方面添加所有這些功能，我們對這項業務的未來充滿信心。

And then when you think about it, over -- Hugh mentioned Moana and Mufasa. Let me just read to you the movies that we'll be making and releasing in the next almost two years. We have Moana, Mufasa, Captain America, Snow White, Thunderbolts, Fantastic Four, Zootopia, Avatar, Avengers, Mandalorian and Toy Story, just to name a few. And when you think about not only the potential of those in box office, but the potential of those to drive global streaming value, I think there's a reason to be bullish about where we're headed.

然後當你想起來的時候，休提到了莫阿娜和木法沙。讓我為你們讀一下我們將在未來近兩年內製作和發行的電影。我們有莫阿娜、木法沙、美國隊長、白雪公主、雷電、神奇四俠、瘋狂動物城、阿凡達、復仇者聯盟、曼達洛人和玩具總動員等等。當你不僅考慮票房潛力，而且考慮推動全球串流媒體價值的潛力時，我認為我們有理由看好我們的發展方向。

And Ben, to answer your other question, flattish was in reference to Experiences.

Ben，回答你的另一個問題，扁平化指的是體驗。

Robert Fishman, MoffettNathanson.

羅伯特‧菲什曼，莫菲特‧內森森。

Thank you. Bob, as you think about the future of content spending for Disney, especially after the NBA deal and all the content that you're just talking about now, what is the right balance of investment between sports, scripted TV and movies going forward?

謝謝。鮑勃，當您考慮迪士尼內容支出的未來時，尤其是在 NBA 交易和您現在談論的所有內容之後，體育、劇本電視和電影之間的投資之間的正確平衡是什麼？

And then for Hugh, can you just update us on free cash flow expectations this year with one quarter to go? And how to think about the parks impact and the content spending on free cash flow in '25? Thank you.

然後，休，您能否向我們介紹一下距離今年還有一個季度的自由現金流預期的最新情況？如何考慮 25 年公園的影響和內容支出對自由現金流的影響？謝謝。

Well, we obviously are investing significantly in all directions because of the value that it creates and also because of the value that it represents to our future in streaming. We talked about sports, the long-term deals that we've made. Obviously, college football is part of that and on top of the NBA and top of the NFL.

嗯，我們顯然正在各個方向進行大量投資，因為它創造了價值，也因為它對我們串流媒體的未來所代表的價值。我們談論了體育，以及我們達成的長期協議。顯然，大學橄欖球是其中的一部分，並且位於 NBA 和 NFL 之上。

On the movie side, we've talked a lot about our -- the creative improvements that our studio has brought to bear and the quality of the IP and the known quality of our IP. And television, I can't say enough about how great our television businesses have been performing, both in terms of the bottom line, but also in terms of creatively. You don't get 183 Emmy nominations by accident. That's the work of a lot of really great, talented people -- meaning on the management side, working with a lot of talented creative people.

在電影方面，我們談論了很多關於我們工作室帶來的創意改進、IP 的品質以及我們 IP 的已知品質。至於電視，我無法充分描述我們的電視業務在盈利和創意方面的表現有多出色。您獲得 183 項艾美獎提名絕非偶然。這是許多真正偉大、有才華的人的工作——意味著在管理方面，與許多有才華、有創造力的人一起工作。

So it's a balance; it's a mix. And I think it's one that you'll ultimately see really blended together as our streaming platform grows over time.

所以這是一個平衡；這是一個混合體。我認為，隨著我們的串流媒體平台隨著時間的推移而發展，您最終會看到它真正融合在一起。

And Robert, on free cash flow, we had previously guided to $8 billion. We don't have any news on that. But if there were a material change on it, obviously, we would have changed the guide.

羅伯特，關於自由現金流，我們之前指導為 80 億美元。我們沒有這方面的任何消息。但如果有實質的改變，顯然我們就會改變指南。

Steven Cahall, Wells Fargo.

史蒂文卡霍爾，富國銀行。

Thanks. So Hugh, you've talked about DTC getting to double-digit margins with the big price increases and the paid sharing efforts coming. I was wondering if you could just update us on your thinking. Would love to get some timing around double-digit margins if that's something you're comfortable with at this point, but any context would be helpful.

謝謝。 Hugh，您談到了隨著價格大幅上漲和付費共享努力的到來，DTC 的利潤率將達到兩位數。我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹您的最新想法。如果您目前對此感到滿意，我希望在兩位數的利潤範圍內找到一些時間，但任何背景都會有所幫助。

And then just on parks. As we think about cruise ship preopening costs in there, what's implied in the fourth quarter? And as we think about cruise preopening costs in fiscal '25, what do those look like? I think you'll sail the Treasure, but you've still got the Adventure and the Destiny. I think the Singapore dock is a little heavier on cost, so I would just love to understand that component. Thank you.

然後就在公園裡。當我們考慮遊輪開業前的成本時，第四季意味著什麼？當我們考慮 25 財年的郵輪開業前成本時，這些成本是什麼樣的？我認為你會航行寶藏，但你仍然擁有冒險和命運。我認為新加坡碼頭的成本有點高，所以我很想了解這個組件。謝謝。

Sure. Happy to talk about both. In terms of the journey on getting to double-digit margins, the levers haven't changed. And frankly, we're actually doing quite well with them. Bundling has had a positive impact on churn. So from that perspective, obviously, that helps us with growth, which is one of the drivers.

當然。很高興談論兩者。就實現兩位數利潤率的過程而言，槓桿並沒有改變。坦白說，我們實際上與他們合作得很好。捆綁對客戶流失產生了正面影響。因此，從這個角度來看，顯然這有助於我們的成長，這是驅動因素之一。

Password sharing is just starting to roll out. That's also going to be helpful in terms of driving growth. We've announced pricing, and we feel good with all of the value that we're providing to consumers with all the creative that Bob mentioned earlier and all the creative that's still to come. We do feel like we've earned that pricing in the marketplace, and we feel positively about that.

密碼共享才剛開始推出。這也將有助於推動成長。我們已經宣布了定價，我們對透過鮑伯之前提到的所有創意以及即將推出的所有創意為消費者提供的所有價值感到滿意。我們確實覺得我們已經在市場上贏得了這個定價，並且我們對此感到積極。

With that will come scale benefits. The product improvements also should reduce churn and keep our consumers with us as they're evaluating their options. And then obviously, we're going to look at the entire cost structure and continue to drive productivity.

隨之而來的是規模效益。產品改進也應該減少客戶流失，並讓消費者在評估他們的選擇時與我們保持聯繫。顯然，我們將審視整個成本結構並持續提高生產力。

In terms of timing, no update on that. It's something that we've said we are approaching with great urgency. We still intend to do that. Obviously, I think we've made a ton of progress. We were losing $1 billion a quarter not all that long ago, and now we're making money.

就時間而言，沒有更新。我們已經說過，我們正在非常緊迫地處理這個問題。我們仍然打算這樣做。顯然，我認為我們已經取得了很大進展。不久前我們每季虧損 10 億美元，而現在我們正在賺錢。

And our expectation is we're going to continue on that journey to making more money to get to and then ultimately well surpass the double-digit margins that we've talked about.

我們的期望是，我們將繼續這趟旅程，賺更多的錢，然後最終遠遠超過我們談到的兩位數利潤率。

Regarding the cruise ships, we've shared a number for this year. The number will be a little over double that in terms of the startup costs in 2025. So you can assume that that will be about that. That said, the cruise ships tend to pay back very quickly. So we certainly feel positive about those investments.

關於遊輪，我們分享了今年的一些數字。就 2025 年的啟動成本而言，這個數字將是其兩倍多一點。也就是說，遊輪往往很快就會收回成本。因此，我們當然對這些投資持正面態度。

David Karnovsky, JPMorgan.

大衛卡諾夫斯基，摩根大通。

Hi, thank you. On sports, Bob, I wanted to see if you could update on strategic partner conversations for ESPN. Is this still a priority? And if so, can you refresh on what you're looking for in terms of marketing or content?

嗨，謝謝你。關於體育，鮑勃，我想看看你是否可以更新 ESPN 策略夥伴對話的最新情況。這仍然是優先事項嗎？如果是這樣，您能否回顧一下您在行銷或內容方面尋找的內容？

And then for Hugh, in the exact commentary, there's multiple references to tightly managing costs. So I wanted to see if you could expand on this. Where are you realizing savings now? How much opportunity is left? Thanks.

然後對於休來說，在確切的評論中，多次提到嚴格管理成本。所以我想看看你是否可以對此進行擴展。您現在在哪裡實現節省？還剩下多少機會？謝謝。

I know I've sounded like a broken record because I've talked about strategic partnerships for ESPN over the last number of quarters. The only thing I can say is, believe it or not, we're still having conversations about it. We thought and continue to believe there may be opportunities to partner with others, particularly on the content side. And that's why we've continued to explore it. But nothing more to add.

我知道我聽起來像是打破了記錄，因為我在過去幾個季度中談到了 ESPN 的策略合作夥伴關係。我唯一能說的是，無論你相信與否，我們仍在就此進行對話。我們認為並且仍然相信可能有機會與其他人合作，特別是在內容方面。這就是我們繼續探索它的原因。但沒什麼好補充的了。

Right. And regarding costs, recall, our original cost estimate was $5.5 billion. We raised that to in excess of $7.5 billion. Look, I -- in big companies, my world view is there's always opportunity to do more with less. So we're going to continue to go after it aggressively as we can to both deliver the bottom line and to invest back in the business with all the great opportunities we have.

正確的。關於成本和召回，我們最初的成本估算為 55 億美元。我們將其提高到超過 75 億美元。聽著，在大公司，我的世界觀是總有機會用更少的錢做更多的事。因此，我們將繼續積極追求這一目標，盡我們所能，既實現盈利，並利用我們擁有的所有巨大機會對業務進行投資。

John Hodulik, UBS.

約翰‧霍杜里克，瑞銀集團。

Great. Maybe first on the parks. Any further details in terms of the softening and the flat revenues that you expect for 4Q and looking out into '25? I mean, do you expect attendance to continue to soften or potentially turn negative? And just any commentary on what you're seeing or expectations are on the per cap side.

偉大的。也許首先是在公園。關於您預計第四季度收入疲軟和收入持平以及展望 25 年的任何進一步細節？我的意思是，您預計出席人數會繼續減少或可能轉為負數嗎？對您所看到的或期望的任何評論都是按上限計算的。

And then secondly, Venu launches this fall. Just any expectations in terms of what it could do to trends in the linear business for you guys. Thanks.

其次，Venu 將在今年秋天推出。只是對你們對線性業務趨勢的任何期望。謝謝。

Yeah, I'll take that. In terms of the parks business, I've kind of given you a lot of our expectation already. I'm not sure I'm ready to peel it down to attendance versus per caps. I think, again, we're going to be pretty consistent with what we saw in Q3. And we talked about the fact that the lower-income consumer is feeling a little bit of stress. The high-income consumer is traveling internationally a bit more. I think you're just going to see more of a continuation of those trends in terms of the top line. And then the bottom line will be reflective of the fact that we've got some onetime costs coming in and going out both this year and last year.

是的，我會接受的。就公園業務而言，我已經給了你們很多我們的期望。我不確定我是否準備好將其分解為出勤率與人均上限。我再次認為，我們將與第三季的情況非常一致。我們談到了低收入消費者感到有點壓力的事實。高收入消費者出國旅遊的次數增加了。我認為你會看到這些趨勢在營收方面有更多的延續。然後底線將反映這樣一個事實：今年和去年我們都有一些一次性成本進出。

I do expect to see international strengthen. Disneyland Paris has obviously felt some challenge due to the Olympics. Not a surprise, but something that happens. And the good news is the Olympics are over in a couple of weeks and the booking will certainly look good in that regard. So overall, feeling positively on that front.

我確實希望看到國際力量的加強。巴黎迪士尼樂園顯然感受到了奧運帶來的一些挑戰。不是意外，而是發生了一些事情。好消息是奧運會幾週後就結束了，從這方面來看，預訂肯定會很好。總的來說，在這方面感覺積極。

Michael Morris, Guggenheim.

麥可·莫里斯，古根漢。

Thank you. Good morning, guys. I wanted to ask you on ARPU at domestic Disney+. It did slip a little bit in the quarter and you cited the impact of subscriber mix shift. Are you saying that that's a function of bundling in terms of mix shift? Or is it mix shift to the ad-supported tier? And if so, can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in the CTV environment, how you're performing there?

謝謝。早上好傢伙。我想問一下國內Disney+的ARPU情況。該季度確實略有下滑，您提到了用戶組合變化的影響。您是說這是混合轉變方面捆綁的功能嗎？還是混合式轉向廣告支援層？如果是這樣，您能談談您在 CTV 環境中看到的情況以及您在那裡的表現嗎？

And just one follow-up on the Experiences segment. We generally think of parks vacations as being booked pretty well in advance, so it was a little bit surprising to hear about demand moderation within the quarter. So can you help us a little bit with how much visibility you feel like you have, and if it does vary by quarter, if there's maybe less advanced bookings in certain quarters versus others? Thank you.

這只是體驗部分的一個後續行動。我們通常認為公園度假是提前預訂的，因此聽到本季需求放緩的消息有點令人驚訝。那麼，您能否幫助我們了解您認為自己擁有多少知名度，是否確實因季度而異，是否某些季度的提前預訂量可能低於其他季度？謝謝。

Yes. To answer the question on ARPU, you hit both points correctly. Number one, bundling has a small effect. And then in addition to that, the shift to the ad model certainly has a small effect as well. From a profitability standpoint, we're pretty happy with whether people choose the ad model or the ad-free model.

是的。要回答有關 ARPU 的問題，您正確地回答了這兩點。第一，捆綁的影響很小。除此之外，向廣告模式的轉變也肯定會產生一些影響。從獲利能力的角度來看，我們對人們選擇廣告模式還是無廣告模式感到非常滿意。

Regarding visibility, we do have very good visibility, which is why I'm emphasizing these are really all changes at the margins, daily visitors and late bookers and things like that. Looking forward, we have very good visibility into the book that we're expecting, which is why I've got a good level of confidence in the projections that I'm sharing with you.

關於可見性，我們確實有非常好的可見性，這就是為什麼我強調這些實際上都是邊緣、每日訪客和遲到預訂者等方面的變化。展望未來，我們對我們所期待的這本書有很好的了解，這就是為什麼我對與您分享的預測充滿信心。

Bryan Kraft, Deutsche Bank.

布萊恩·克拉夫特，德意志銀行。

Hi, good morning. I had two if I could. Just first on advertising. You highlighted the strong results from the upfront this year, which is very encouraging. But I wanted to ask what you're seeing more immediately in terms of advertising demand today given some of the macro pressures that have recently come to light. Are advertisers becoming more cautious? Are you seeing that more in the real-time ad sales part of the business?

早安.如果可以的話我有兩個。首先是廣告。您強調了今年前期的強勁成果，這非常令人鼓舞。但我想問一下，考慮到最近出現的一些宏觀壓力，您今天在廣告需求方面更直接地看到了什麼。廣告商是否變得更加謹慎？您是否在業務的即時廣告銷售部分看到了更多這種情況？

And then just on the content sales and licensing part of the business. The press release mentioned increased sales of TV content in content sales/licensing and other as a driver of BOI performance this quarter, along with the box office, of course. Is there anything to read into this? Is it the beginning of a trend toward increasing content licensing to third parties? Or it's just a timing benefit or a one-off? Thank you.

然後是內容銷售和授權部分的業務。新聞稿提到，內容銷售/授權等方面電視內容銷售的成長是 BOI 本季業績的推動因素，當然還有票房。這裡面有什麼值得解讀的事嗎？這是增加第三方內容授權趨勢的開始嗎？或者這只是一種時機利益或一次性利益？謝謝。

Sure. Happy to talk about it. Ad market is actually very healthy right now. We saw overall advertising grow 8% for the quarter. ESPN was up 17%. DTC streaming was actually up 20%. So certainly feeling very, very positively in that regard.

當然。很高興談論它。目前廣告市場其實非常健康。我們看到本季的整體廣告成長了 8%。 ESPN 上漲 17%。 DTC 串流媒體實際上成長了 20%。所以在這方面我肯定感覺非常非常正面。

In terms of the categories, financial services, consumer products doing very well, consumer services doing very well, and technology doing very well. Auto is a little bit softer in that regard. But overall, the ad market is really, really strong and healthy for us. And a lot of that is a product of the fact that we have live sports and the fact that our streaming service is doing so well in terms of the IP that we have. It's an attractive audience.

從類別來看，金融服務、消費品做得很好，消費服務做得很好，科技做得很好。在這方面，汽車的表現要軟一些。但總的來說，廣告市場對我們來說確實非常強勁和健康。這在很大程度上是因為我們有體育直播，而且我們的串流媒體服務在我們擁有的智慧財產權方面做得非常好。這是一個有吸引力的觀眾。

We also have a new capability called Disney streaming that allows us to basically sell across our platforms very effectively. We're selling audiences rather than just selling streaming channels, which enables advertisers to more effectively target the audiences that they're seeking. So from a technology perspective, we're seeing good payback.

我們還有一個稱為迪士尼串流媒體的新功能，使我們基本上能夠非常有效地在我們的平台上進行銷售。我們銷售的是受眾，而不僅僅是銷售串流媒體頻道，這使廣告商能夠更有效地瞄準他們正在尋找的受眾。因此，從技術角度來看，我們看到了良好的回報。

The second piece was around licensing. Yeah, the licensing numbers that you see are mostly a reality around the fact that we've had so much success at the box office. So that's really what's driving things more than anything else. No change in our licensing strategy, which has been pretty clear. The things that we consider core IP to the company, we don't license. There are things that are nonstrategic. We'll continue to license tactically, but it's not a big strategy for us. The big strategy is producing our own IP and monetizing it.

第二件事是關於許可。是的，你看到的授權數字大部分都是現實，因為我們在票房上取得瞭如此巨大的成功。所以這確實是推動事情發展的最重要因素。我們的授權策略沒有變化，這一點已經非常明確了。我們認為公司核心知識產權的東西，我們不會獲得許可。有些事情是非戰略性的。我們將繼續進行戰術性許可，但這對我們來說不是一個大戰略。我們的大戰略是生產我們自己的智慧財產權並將其貨幣化。

Thank you. Operator, we have time for one more question.

謝謝。接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Kannan Venkateshwar, Barclays.

Kannan Venkateshwar，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you. So maybe on theme parks, I mean, there's a few growth elements, I guess, over the next few years in terms of cruise ships and broadly other CapEx investments that you're making in the park. Maybe if you could just step back and talk about what kind of growth impact do you expect maybe over the next two or three years. And if that can offset -- to what extent that can offset some of the weakness you're seeing in the parks, that would be useful.

謝謝。因此，我的意思是，也許在主題樂園方面，我想，在接下來的幾年裡，在遊輪和公園裡進行的其他資本支出投資方面，會有一些成長因素。也許您可以退後一步，談談您預計在未來兩三年內會產生什麼樣的成長影響。如果這可以抵消——在多大程度上可以抵消你在公園看到的一些弱點，那將是有用的。

And then one other segment which probably goes out of your numbers next year is India. And that's been a loss-making business. So to the extent you can talk about the potential earnings contribution once India is deconsolidated, that would be much appreciated. Thank you.

明年可能會超出你的數字的另一個部分是印度。這是一項虧損業務。因此，如果您能談論印度解體後潛在的獲利貢獻，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Yeah, good morning, Kannan. Two things. One, obviously, the investments that we're making into the Experiences business, we feel very, very good about. It's been a great returning business for a long time. So while I'm not here to give you a long-term guidance in terms of that segment of the business, we wouldn't be making capital investments in an accelerated way if we didn't expect to accelerate growth out of those businesses. And that's true of the cruise ships as well.

是的，早上好，卡南。兩件事情。第一，顯然，我們對體驗業務的投資感到非常非常滿意。長期以來，這是一項很棒的回報業務。因此，雖然我不會在這裡為您提供該業務領域的長期指導，但如果我們不期望加速這些業務的成長，我們就不會加速進行資本投資。遊輪也是如此。

Now keep in mind that the lead time on investments in this business are multiple years. So when exactly all of that manifests, we'll share with you as we go along. But obviously, we're investing because we're looking through accelerated growth, and hence the term turbocharge.

現在請記住，該業務的投資週期長達數年。因此，當所有這些都具體體現出來時，我們將與您分享。但顯然，我們進行投資是因為我們正在尋求加速成長，因此有了「渦輪增壓」一詞。

Regarding the India question, we'll share that when we close the deal. I think that's the right time to do it. And we'll lay it out for you all very clearly so that you can model it very, very effectively.

關於印度問題，我們將在達成協議時分享。我認為現在是這樣做的正確時機。我們將非常清楚地為大家展示它，以便您可以非常非常有效地對其進行建模。

Okay. Thank you. Thanks for the questions. And I want to thank everyone for joining us today.

好的。謝謝。感謝您的提問。我要感謝大家今天加入我們。

Note that a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures that were referred to on this call to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found on our Investor Relations website. Let me also remind you that certain statements on this call, including financial estimates or statements about our plans, guidance or expectations and drivers, including future revenues, profitability, DTC subscribers, free cash flow, adjusted EPS and capital allocation, and other statements that are not historical in nature may constitute forward-looking statements under the securities laws. We make these statements on the basis of our views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance at the time we make them, and we do not undertake any obligation to update these statements.

請注意，本次電話會議中提到的非公認會計原則措施與最具可比性的公認會計原則措施的調節可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。我還要提醒您，本次電話會議中的某些陳述，包括財務估計或有關我們的計劃、指導或預期和驅動因素的陳述，包括未來收入、盈利能力、DTC 訂戶、自由現金流、調整後每股盈餘和資本分配，以及其他陳述本質上不具有歷史性，可能構成證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。我們根據做出這些聲明時對未來事件和業務績效的看法和假設做出這些聲明，並且我們不承擔更新這些聲明的任何義務。

Forward-looking statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from the results expressed or implied in light of a variety of factors. These factors include, among others, economic or industry conditions, competition and execution risks, including in connection with our business plans, potential strategic transactions and our content, cost savings, the market for advertising, our future financial performance, and legal and regulatory developments.

前瞻性陳述受到各種風險和不確定性的影響，實際結果可能因多種因素而與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。這些因素包括經濟或行業狀況、競爭和執行風險，包括與我們的業務計劃、潛在策略交易和我們的內容、成本節約、廣告市場、我們未來的財務表現以及法律和監管發展有關的風險。

In particular, our expectations regarding DTC profitability, subscriber levels, and ARPU are built on certain assumptions based on the future strength of our content slate, churn expectations, the financial impact of the Disney+ ad tier and ESPN flagship, pricing decisions, bundling and availability of our other streaming services on Disney+, technological advances and paid sharing efforts, our ability to continue to rationalize costs while preserving revenue, and macroeconomic conditions. All of which, while based on extensive internal analysis as well as recent experience, provide a layer of uncertainty in our outlook.

特別是，我們對DTC 獲利能力、訂戶水準和ARPU 的預期是建立在基於我們內容板未來實力、流失預期、Disney+ 廣告層和ESPN 旗艦產品的財務影響、定價決策、捆綁和可用性的某些假設之上的。所有這些雖然基於廣泛的內部分析和最近的經驗，但都為我們的前景帶來了一層不確定性。

For more information about key risk factors, please refer to our Investor Relations website, the press release issued today, and the risks and uncertainties described in our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We want to thank you for joining us and wish everyone a good rest of the day.

有關關鍵風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們的投資者關係網站、今天發布的新聞稿，以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的表格10-K、表格10-Q 和其他文件中描述的風險和不確定性。我們要感謝您加入我們，並祝福大家有個愉快的一天。