霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the first-quarter 2024 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States.

早安，歡迎參加 D.R. 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。霍頓，美國建築商，美國最大的建築商。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

（操作員指示）我現在將電話轉給 D.R. 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you Paul and good morning.

謝謝保羅，早安。

Welcome to our call to discuss our financial results for the first-quarter and fiscal 2025.

歡迎致電討論我們第一季和 2025 財年的財務表現。

Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

雖然 D.R.霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的資訊。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期，以及 D.R.霍頓不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致績效發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參見 D.R. Horton 向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告。

This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q in next few days.

今天早上的收益發布可以在我們的網站 Investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃在接下來的幾天內提交我們的 10-Q 報告。

After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the presentations section under news and events for your reference.

本次電話會議後，我們將在投資者關係網站的新聞和事件下的演示部分發布更新的投資者和補充資料演示，供您參考。

Please note that we have added and updated several slides in our investor presentation to highlight our returns focused strategy and performance.

請注意，我們在投資者演示中添加並更新了幾張幻燈片，以突出我們以回報為中心的策略和業績。

Now, I will turn the call over to Paul Romanowski, our President and CEO.

現在，我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Paul Romanowski。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning.

謝謝你，潔西卡，早安。

I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

我很高興我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Mike Murray 也參加了這次電話會議；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Wheat

For the first quarter, the D.R. Horton team delivered solid results, highlighted by earnings of $2.61 per diluted share.

第一季度，D.R. Horton 團隊取得了穩健的業績，稀釋後每股收益為 2.61 美元。

Our consolidated pretax income was $1.1 billion on $7.6 billion of revenues with a pretax profit margin of 14.6%.

我們的綜合稅前收入為 11 億美元，總收入為 76 億美元，稅前利潤率為 14.6%。

We remain focused on enhancing capital efficiency to produce sustainable returns and cash flow.

我們仍然專注於提高資本效率，以產生可持續的回報和現金流。

Our homebuilding pretax return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended December 31 was 26.7%.

截至 12 月 31 日的過去 12 個月，我們的住宅建築稅前庫存回報率為 26.7%。

Our return on equity was 19.1% and return on assets was 13.4%.

我們的股本報酬率為 19.1%，資產報酬率為 13.4%。

Our return on assets ranks in the top 15% of all S&P 500 companies for the past 3, 5 and 10-year periods.

我們的資產報酬率在過去 3 年、5 年和 10 年期間均位居所有標準普爾 500 強公司的前 15%。

During the three months ended December 31, we generated consolidated operating cash flow of $647 million, and returned $1.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

截至 12 月 31 日的三個月內，我們產生了 6.47 億美元的綜合營運現金流，並透過股票回購和股息向股東返還了 12 億美元。

Over the past 12 months, we returned essentially all of the cash we generated to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們透過回購和股利將幾乎所有產生的現金回饋給股東。

Overall, the demographics supporting housing demand remained favorable.

總體而言，支持住房需求的人口結構仍然有利。

And although both new and existing home inventories have increased from historically low levels, the supply of homes at affordable price points is generally still limited.

儘管新房和現房庫存均較歷史低點有所增加，但價格實惠的房屋供應普遍仍有限。

To help spur demand and address affordability, we are continuing to use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns and we have continued to start and sell more of the -- more of our smaller floor plans.

為了幫助刺激需求並解決負擔能力問題，我們將繼續使用抵押貸款利率購買等激勵措施，並且我們將繼續啟動和銷售更多的小型平面圖。

Our local teams have been successful meeting the market with net sales orders this quarter decreasing only slightly from the prior year.

我們的本地團隊成功地滿足了市場需求，本季的淨銷售訂單僅比去年略有下降。

We typically experience our seasonally slowest sales demand in the first quarter and our tenured local operators seek to find the right balance of sales pace, pricing, incentives, and inventory levels to position each community for optimal returns as we enter the spring.

我們通常會在第一季經歷季節性最慢的銷售需求，我們的長期本地業者尋求在銷售節奏、定價、激勵措施和庫存水平之間找到適當的平衡，以便在進入春季時為每個社區提供最佳回報。

With 53% of our first-quarter closings also sold in the same quarter, our sales, incentive levels, and gross margin are generally representative of current market conditions.

由於我們第一季成交量的 53% 也在同一季度售出，因此我們的銷售額、激勵水平和毛利率總體上代表了當前的市場狀況。

With our focus on affordable product offerings, homes and inventory continued improvement in our construction cycle times and finished lots available in our pipeline, we are well positioned for the remainder of fiscal 2025.

由於我們專注於提供實惠的產品、房屋和庫存，施工週期時間持續改善，以及管道中的成品地塊，我們在 2025 財年剩餘時間內處於有利地位。

Mike?

麥克風？

Earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 decreased 7% to $2.61 per diluted share compared to $2.82 per share in the prior year quarter.

2025 財年第一季稀釋後每股收益下降 7%，至 2.61 美元，去年同期為 2.82 美元。

Net income for the quarter was $845 million on consolidated revenues of $7.6 billion.

該季度淨利潤為 8.45 億美元，綜合收入為 76 億美元。

Our first-quarter home-sales revenues were $7.1 billion on 19,059 homes closed compared to $7.3 billion on 19,340 homes closed in the prior year quarter.

我們第一季房屋銷售收入為 71 億美元，成交了 19,059 套房屋，而去年同期成交了 19,340 套房屋，房屋銷售收入為 73 億美元。

Our average closing price for the quarter was $374,900, down 1% sequentially and roughly flat with the prior year quarter.

我們本季的平均收盤價為 374,900 美元，比上一季下降 1%，與去年同期基本持平。

Bill?

帳單？

Our net sales orders for the first quarter decreased 1% from the prior year to 17,837 homes and order value decreased 2% to $6.7 billion.

我們第一季的淨銷售訂單較上年同期下降 1%，至 17,837 套，訂單價值下降 2%，至 67 億美元。

Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 18%, down from 21% sequentially and from 19% in the prior year quarter.

本季的取消率為 18%，低於上一季的 21% 和去年同期的 19%。

Our average number of active selling communities was up 2% sequentially and up 10% year over year.

我們的活躍銷售社群平均數量較上季成長 2%，較去年同期成長 10%。

The average price of net sales orders in the first quarter was $373,000, which was down 1%, both sequentially and from the prior year quarter.

第一季淨銷售訂單平均價格為 373,000 美元，較上季和去年同期均下降 1%。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenue in the first quarter was 22.7%, down 90 basis points sequentially from the September quarter as expected due to higher incentive costs.

由於激勵成本上升，我們第一季房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 22.7%，較 9 月季度季減 90 個基點，符合預期。

On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues and stick-and-brick costs were both relatively flat sequentially, while lot cost increased approximately 3%.

以每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入和磚塊成本均相對持平，而地段成本則增加了約 3%。

Our incentive costs are expected to increase further on homes closed over the next few months, so we expect our home sales gross margin to be lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

預計未來幾個月關閉房屋的激勵成本將進一步增加，因此我們預計第二季的房屋銷售毛利率將低於第一季。

Our incentive levels and home sales gross margin for the full year of fiscal 2025 will be dependent on the strength of demand during the spring selling season in addition to changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions.

我們 2025 財年全年的激勵水準和房屋銷售毛利率將取決於春季銷售季節的需求強度以及抵押貸款利率和其他市場條件的變化。

Bill?

帳單？

In the first quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expenses increased by 6% from last year.

第一季度，我們的住宅建築 SG&A 費用比去年增加了 6%。

And homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 8.9%, up 60 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year and in line with our expectations.

住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔營收的百分比為 8.9%，比去年同期成長 60 個基點，符合我們的預期。

Our increased SG&A costs are primarily due to the expansion of our operating platform.

我們增加的銷售、管理及行政費用主要是由於我們營運平台的擴張。

Our employee count is up 8% from a year ago.

我們的員工人數比一年前增加了 8%。

Our community count is up 10%, and our market count has increased 7% to 126 markets and 36 states.

我們的社區數量增加了 10%，市場數量增加了 7%，達到 126 個市場和 36 個州。

The investments we have made in our team and platform position us to execute and sustain our strategic plans to produce strong returns, cash flow, and market share gains.

我們對團隊和平台的投資使我們能夠執行和維持我們的策略計劃，以產生強勁的回報、現金流量和市場份額收益。

Paul?

保羅？

We started 17,900 homes in the December quarter and ended the quarter with 36,200 homes in inventory, down 15% from a year ago and approximately 1,200 homes lower than at the end of September. 25,700 of our homes at December 31 were unsold, relatively flat with year-end. 10,400 our unsold homes at quarter end were completed, of which 1,300 have been completed for greater than six months.

我們在 12 月季度開工了 17,900 套房屋，本季末庫存房屋為 36,200 套，比去年同期下降 15%，比 9 月底減少約 1,200 套。截至 12 月 31 日，我們有 25,700 套房屋未售出，與年底持平。截至季末，我們已竣工 10,400 套未售出房屋，其中 1,300 套已竣工時間超過六個月。

For homes we closed in the first quarter, our construction cycle times improved a few days from the fourth quarter and approximately three weeks from a year ago.

對於我們在第一季關閉的房屋，我們的施工週期時間比第四季度縮短了幾天，比一年前縮短了大約三週。

Our improved cycle times position us to turn our housing inventory faster in 2025, and we will continue to manage our homes and inventory, and pace based on market conditions and to achieve targeted closings by community.

我們改進的周期時間使我們能夠在 2025 年更快地週轉我們的住房庫存，我們將繼續管理我們的住房和庫存，並根據市場狀況調整步伐，並實現社區的目標關閉。

Mike?

麥克風？

Our homebuilding lot position at December 31 consisted of approximately 640,000 lots, of which 24% were owned and 76% were controlled through purchase contracts.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的住宅建築地塊部位約為 64 萬塊，其中 24% 為自有土地，76% 為透過購買合約控制。

We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to allow us to build more homes on lots developed by others, which enhances our capital efficiency, returns, and operational flexibility.

我們仍然專注於與全國各地土地開發商的關係，以便我們能夠在其他人開發的土地上建造更多房屋，從而提高我們的資本效率、回報和營運靈活性。

Of the homes we closed this quarter, 65% were on a lot developed by either Forestar or a third party, up from 62% in the prior year quarter.

在我們本季關閉的房屋中，65% 是由 Forestar 或第三方開發的地塊，高於去年同期的 62%。

Our first quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land, and development totaled $2.4 billion, of which $1.5 billion for finished lots, $710 million was for land development, and $140 million was for land acquisition.

我們第一季在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 24 億美元，其中 15 億美元用於成品地塊，7.1 億美元用於土地開發，1.4 億美元用於土地收購。

Paul?

保羅？

In the first quarter, our rental operations generated $12 million of pretax income on $218 million of revenues from the sale of 311 single-family rental homes and 504 multifamily rental units.

第一季度，我們的租賃業務透過銷售 311 套單戶出租屋和 504 套多戶出租單位獲得 2.18 億美元的收入，產生了 1,200 萬美元的稅前收入。

This quarter's rental pretax profit margin was impacted by recent uncertainty in the capital markets and higher interest rates for purchasers of rental communities.

本季的租賃稅前利潤率受到近期資本市場不確定性和租賃社區購買者利率上升的影響。

We continue to operate a merchant build model in which we construct and sell purpose-built rental communities.

我們繼續經營商業建設模式，建造和銷售專門建造的租賃社區。

Our rental operations provide synergies to our homebuilding operations by enhancing our purchasing scale and providing opportunities for more efficient utilization of trade labor and absorption of our land and lot pipeline.

我們的租賃業務透過提高我們的採購規模並為更有效地利用貿易勞動力和吸收我們的土地和地塊管道提供機會，為我們的住宅建築業務提供協同效應。

We are focused on improving our operational execution and efficiencies in both our rental businesses.

我們致力於提高租賃業務的營運執行力和效率。

During the last several quarters, we have been successful in monetizing some of our single-family rental communities prior to leasing stabilization.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們在租賃穩定之前成功地將一些單戶租賃社區貨幣化。

We plan to continue this strategy to improve the capital efficiency and returns of our rental operations.

我們計劃繼續這項策略，以提高租賃業務的資本效率和回報。

Our rental property inventory at December 31 was $3 billion, which consisted of $728 million of single-family rental properties and $2.3 billion of multifamily rental properties.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 30 億美元，其中包括 7.28 億美元的單戶出租物業和 23 億美元的多戶出租物業。

We expect our total rental inventory to remain around the current level for the next several quarters.

我們預計未來幾季我們的總租賃庫存將保持在當前水準附近。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company reported revenues of $250 million for the first quarter on 2,333 lots sold with pretax income of $22 million.

我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司 Forestar 公佈第一季營收為 2.5 億美元，售出 2,333 塊地塊，稅前收入為 2,200 萬美元。

Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at December 31 was 106,000 lots. 64% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $220 million of our finished lots purchased in the first quarter were from Forestar.

截至12月31日，Forestar擁有和控制的手數為106,000手。 Forestar 64% 的自有土地均與 D.R. 簽訂了合同，並享有優先報價權。霍頓。我們第一季購買的成品地塊中有 2.2 億美元來自 Forestar。

Forestar had approximately $640 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 29.5%.

截至季末，Forestar 擁有約 6.4 億美元的流動資金，淨負債與資本比率為 29.5%。

Our strategic relationship with Forestar is a vital component of our returns-focused business model.

我們與 Forestar 的策略關係是我們以回報為中心的業務模式的重要組成部分。

Forestar's strong separately capitalized balance sheet, growing operating platform, and lot supply position them well to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry and to aggregate significant market share over the next several years.

Forestar 強大的獨立資本資產負債表、不斷增長的營運平台和地塊供應使他們能夠充分利用住宅建築行業成品地塊的短缺，並在未來幾年內積累重要的市場份額。

Mike?

麥克風？

Financial Services earned $49 million of pretax income in the first quarter on $182 million of revenues, resulting in a pretax profit margin of 26.7%.

金融服務第一季稅前收入為 4,900 萬美元，營收為 1.82 億美元，稅前利潤率為 26.7%。

During the first quarter, our mortgage company handled the financing for 79% of our homebuyers.

第一季度，我們的抵押貸款公司為 79% 的購屋者辦理了融資。

Borrowers originating loans with the D.R. Horton mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 724 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 89%.

借款人向 D.R. 發放貸款本季霍頓抵押貸款的平均 FICO 評分為 724，平均貸款價值比為 89%。

First-time homebuyers represented 60% of the closing by our mortgage company this quarter.

首次購屋者占我們抵押貸款公司本季成交額的 60%。

Bill?

帳單？

Our capital allocation strategy is disciplined and balanced to sustain an operating platform that produces compelling returns and substantial operating cash flows, while positioning for growth.

我們的資本配置策略嚴謹且平衡，以維持一個能夠產生令人矚目的回報和大量營運現金流的營運平台，同時為成長做好準備。

We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and strong liquidity, which provides us with significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表、低槓桿率和強大的流動性，這為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性，以適應不斷變化的市場條件和機會。

During the first three months of the year, consolidated cash provided by operations was $647 million.

今年前三個月，營運提供的綜合現金為 6.47 億美元。

We repurchased 6.8 million shares of common stock during the quarter for $1.1 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 4% from the prior year.

我們在本季以 11 億美元回購了 680 萬股普通股，這使我們的流通股數量比上年減少了 4%。

As our stock price declined during the quarter, we accelerated some of our planned share repurchases for the year.

由於我們的股價在本季下跌，我們加快了今年計劃的一些股票回購。

Our remaining share repurchase authorization at December 31 was $2.5 billion.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們剩餘的股票回購授權為 25 億美元。

During the quarter, we also paid cash dividends of $0.40 per share, totaling $129 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level to be paid in February.

本季度，我們還支付了每股 0.40 美元的現金股息，總計 1.29 億美元，並且我們的董事會已宣布將於 2 月份支付相同水平的季度股息。

At December 31, we had $6.5 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $3 billion of cash and $3.5 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 65 億美元的綜合流動性，其中包括 30 億美元的現金和 35 億美元的信貸額度可用能力。

Debt at the end of the quarter totaled $5.1 billion with $500 million of senior notes maturing in the next 12 months.

本季末的債務總額為 51 億美元，其中 5 億美元的優先票據將在未來 12 個月內到期。

Our consolidated leverage at December 31 was 17%, and we plan to maintain our leverage around 20% over the long term.

截至12月31日，我們的綜合槓桿率為17%，我們計劃將槓桿率長期維持在20%左右。

At December 31, our stockholders' equity was $24.9 billion, and book value per share was $78.53, up 13% from a year ago.

截至12月31日，我們的股東權益為249億美元，每股帳面價值為78.53美元，比去年同期成長13%。

For the trailing 12 months ended December 31, our return on equity was 19.1% and our consolidated return on assets was 13.4%.

截至 12 月 31 日的過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率為 19.1%，綜合資產回報率為 13.4%。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Looking forward to the second quarter, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of $7.7 billion to $8.2 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 20,000 to 20,500 homes.

展望第二季度，我們目前預計將產生 77 億至 82 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 20,000 至 20,500 套之間。

We expect our home sales gross margin for the second quarter to be approximately 21.5% to 22% and our consolidated pretax profit margin to be in the range of 13.7% to 14.2%.

我們預計第二季房屋銷售毛利率約為 21.5% 至 22%，綜合稅前利潤率將在 13.7% 至 14.2% 範圍內。

We have added guidance for consolidated pretax profit margin to provide more meaningful insight to our overall profit expectations.

我們增加了合併稅前利潤率的指導，以便為我們的整體利潤預期提供更有意義的見解。

As a result, we no longer plan to provide specific guidance for quarterly homebuilding SG&A percentage or our financial services pretax profit margin.

因此，我們不再計劃為季度住宅建築 SG&A 百分比或我們的金融服務稅前利潤率提供具體指引。

Our results for the full year of fiscal 2025 was to largely be dependent on the strength of the spring.

我們 2025 財年全年的業績在很大程度上取決於春季的強度。

For the year, we continue to expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $36 billion to $37.5 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 90,000 to 92,000 homes.

今年，我們繼續預計綜合收入約為 360 億至 375 億美元，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 90,000 至 92,000 套之間。

We now forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2025 of approximately 24%.

我們現在預測 2025 財年的所得稅稅率約為 24%。

Based on our strong financial position, first-quarter share repurchase activity and our expectation for increased cash flows from operations in fiscal 2025, we now plan to repurchase between $2.6 billion and $2.8 billion of our common stock for the full year.

基於我們強勁的財務狀況、第一季的股票回購活動以及我們對 2025 財年營運現金流增加的預期，我們現在計劃全年回購 26 億至 28 億美元的普通股。

We also continue to expect annual dividend payments of around $500 million.

我們也繼續預計年度股息支付約為 5 億美元。

Paul?

保羅？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint, and focus on affordable product offerings.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、領先業界的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及對價格實惠的產品的關注。

All of these are key components of our operating platform that sustain our ability to produce strong returns, grow the business and generate substantial cash flows while continuing to aggregate market share.

所有這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分，維持我們產生強勁回報、發展業務和產生大量現金流的能力，同時繼續擴大市場份額。

We have significant financial and operational flexibility, and we plan to maintain our disciplined approach to capital allocation by providing compelling returns to our shareholders to enhance the long-term value of our company.

我們擁有顯著的財務和營運靈活性，我們計劃透過為股東提供引人注目的回報來維持嚴格的資本配置方法，以提高公司的長期價值。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors, and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work.

感謝整個 D.R.霍頓家族的員工、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人，感謝你們的持續努力和辛勤工作。

This concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We will now host questions.

我們現在將主持提問。

(Operator Instructions) John Lovallo, UBS.

（操作員說明）John Lovallo，UBS。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

Maybe starting off with just the gross margin outlook in the second quarter.

也許先從第二季的毛利率前景開始。

So looks like sequentially going from 22.7% to 21.5% to 22%.

所以看起來會依序從 22.7% 上升到 21.5% 再到 22%。

Can you just help us with some of the moving pieces there.

你能幫我們解決一些令人感動的事情嗎？

I mean, is that really the expectation of just higher incentive levels?

我的意思是，這真的是更高激勵水準的期望嗎？

Or is there something that changes sequentially in terms of land, labor, and materials?

或者土地、勞力和材料方面是否有連續變化？

John, really, it's just a matter of incentive levels and what we're seeing in the market today.

約翰，真的，這只是激勵水平和我們今天在市場上看到的問題。

We've closed 53% of the -- or 53% homes we closed this quarter were sold in the quarter.

我們已經關閉了本季關閉的 53% 的房屋，即 53% 的房屋已在本季度售出。

So we think representative of kind of where we are, and looking throughout the quarter, our margin on closings in December was a little lower than the prior two months.

因此，我們認為代表了我們的現狀，從整個季度來看，我們 12 月的結帳利潤率略低於前兩個月。

So based on the visibility we have today, what we're seeing in the market, we do expect a slight step down in margin on closings in our second quarter.

因此，根據我們今天所看到的情況以及我們在市場上看到的情況，我們確實預計第二季結帳時的利潤率將略有下降。

Understood.

明白了。

And then in terms of deliveries, it looks like you guys beat by about 1,000 units versus the top end, still kind of maintain that 90,000 to 92,000 guide for the full year.

然後就交付量而言，看起來你們比高端產品高出約 1,000 輛，但全年仍保持 90,000 至 92,000 輛的指導。

How would you kind of characterize that?

您如何形容這一點？

Was there anything pulled forward into the first quarter that you didn't expect?

第一季有什麼是你沒有預料到的嗎？

Or is this more just a little bit of conservatism, just not knowing what lies ahead as we move into the spring?

或者這只是一點保守主義，只是不知道當我們進入春天時會發生什麼？

I think we're always a little concerned in the fourth calendar quarter, our first fiscal with the sales demand environment.

我認為我們總是對第四季度（我們的第一個財政年度）的銷售需求環境有點擔心。

We had the inventory, and the teams did a great job of delivering that inventory to closings and putting people on home.

我們有庫存，團隊在將庫存交付到結帳並讓人們回家方面做得很好。

So feel really good about the execution across the Board.

因此，對整個董事會的執行感到非常滿意。

And we're positioned to continue to deliver homes, and we need to sell a fair number of homes this quarter that we're going to close this quarter, but we've got the inventory position to do so.

我們準備繼續交付房屋，我們需要在本季度出售相當數量的房屋，我們將在本季度關閉，但我們有庫存狀況可以做到這一點。

Yeah.

是的。

I think the beat really just reflects our continued improvement in build times and also the fact that we did sell and close 53% of our homes intra-quarter, that's a little bit higher than it typically would be for a December quarter.

我認為這一增長實際上反映了我們在建造時間方面的持續改進，而且我們確實在季度內出售並關閉了 53% 的房屋，這比 12 月份季度的通常情況要高一些。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Thanks guys.

謝謝你們。

Alan Ratner, Zelman and Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，澤爾曼及其同事。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for the details so far.

感謝到目前為止的詳細資訊。

First question on the start pace.

關於起跑速度的第一個問題。

That's been trending lower here, which I think makes sense given the environment.

這裡的價格一直呈下降趨勢，考慮到當前的環境，我認為這是有道理的。

But three quarters in a row, down year over year.

但連續三個季度年減。

Just curious how you're thinking about the start pace going forward.

只是好奇你如何看待未來的起步節奏。

Are you thinking about just given the improving cycle times, bringing back some components of BTO back in the business?

您是否考慮考慮縮短週期時間，將 BTO 的某些元件帶回業務中？

Or do you feel like just given that improving cycle time, you can more appropriately match the start of sales going forward and still hit that full year guide?

或者您覺得只要考慮到改進的周期時間，您就可以更適當地匹配未來的銷售開始，並且仍然達到全年指南？

Yeah, Alan, I believe that just the improved cycle times that we have seen have allowed us to carry a lower number of inventory, and that's why you've seen that sequential decline in our start pace.

是的，艾倫，我相信我們所看到的周期時間的改善使我們能夠持有更少的庫存，這就是為什麼你看到我們的啟動速度連續下降。

It does allow us to sell earlier in the process because of our ability to turn these homes faster.

它確實使我們能夠更早地出售這些房屋，因為我們有能力更快地週轉這些房屋。

So it does allow us to pick up a little broader scale on the buyer demographic or demand that's out there.

因此，它確實使我們能夠更廣泛地了解現有的買家群體或需求。

I would expect on a go-forward basis that you're going to see our starts to be more in line with our sales pace.

我希望在未來的基礎上，您會看到我們的開始與我們的銷售節奏更加一致。

We just replenish the inventory that we have and start to build as we grow throughout the year.

我們只是補充現有的庫存，並隨著全年的成長而開始建立。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Second question, we're day one here on the new administration, a lot of uncertainty about which direction some of the housing-related policies might go in, whether we're talking about tariffs or integration or the future of the GSEs.

第二個問題，我們是新政府上任的第一天，對於一些與住房相關的政策可能走向哪個方向存在著許多不確定性，無論我們是在談論關稅、一體化還是政府支持企業的未來。

I'm just curious how you guys are thinking about the next several years in the backdrop and whether you're changing any strategies or doing anything in anticipation of that?

我只是好奇你們在這種背景下如何思考未來幾年，以及你們是否會改變任何策略或採取任何措施來應對這種情況？

You know, alongside everyone else, we're keeping an eye on what will occur.

你知道，我們和其他人一樣，正在密切關注將要發生的事情。

But we've been through a number of changes in administrations before, and ultimately, we are just focused on what buyers can afford.

但我們之前經歷過多次政府改革，最終，我們只關注買家能負擔的東西。

We're going to continue to open communities and try to price our product as affordably as possible to meet the needs of home buyers.

我們將繼續開放社區，並嘗試以盡可能實惠的價格來滿足購房者的需求。

There is a core need for shelter and for homes in our country, and we're going to continue to do the best we can to supply it at an affordable price as we can.

我們國家對住房和住房有著核心需求，我們將繼續盡最大努力以可負擔的價格提供住房。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks very much guys.

是的，非常感謝大家。

Appreciate the color.

欣賞顏色。

I was really encouraged to see the share repurchases you did this quarter, and it's a tough environment and the cash flow was impressive.

看到你們本季進行的股票回購，我真的很受鼓舞，這是一個艱難的環境，但現金流量令人印象深刻。

I think you had guided -- you're guiding now -- continuing to guide for cash flow above 2024.

我認為您已經指導——現在正在指導——繼續指導 2024 年以上的現金流。

Can you give us a sense for how you're thinking about cash flow from operations relative to your combined share repurchases and dividends because that I think might help dial in and even a little bit better.

您能否告訴我們您如何看待與股票回購和股息相結合的營運現金流，因為我認為這可能有助於撥入，甚至更好一點。

Sure.

當然。

As we said in our scripted remarks, we've essentially distributed all of our cash flow from operations over the last 12 months to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

正如我們在書面發言中所說，我們基本上已透過回購和股息將過去 12 個月營運產生的所有現金流分配給股東。

And so that would continue to be our general expectation is the substantial majority of our cash flow will go to repurchases and dividends.

因此，我們的整體預期仍然是我們的大部分現金流將用於回購和股利。

So our guide of the $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion of repurchases and the $500 million of dividends is a good proxy for generally the range of where we would expect our cash flow from operations to be for the year.

因此，我們對 26 億至 28 億美元回購和 5 億美元股息的指導可以很好地代表我們預計今年營運現金流的總體範圍。

Yeah.

是的。

That's impressive.

這令人印象深刻。

Appreciate that.

很欣賞這一點。

And then second question relates to your leverage longer term.

第二個問題與你的長期槓桿作用有關。

I think you had indicated that your long-term leverage goal is around 20%.

我認為您已經表示您的長期槓桿目標是 20% 左右。

Can you give us a sense for like what kind of cash balance you guys would typically carry?

您能否讓我們了解一下您通常會持有什麼樣的現金餘額？

So in other words, like what kind of net debt to cap do you think is a good target longer term for the company?

換句話說，您認為什麼樣的淨債務上限對公司來說是個好的長期目標？

Sure.

當然。

You're correct on the consolidated leverage target at or below 20%.

您關於 20% 或以下的綜合槓桿目標是正確的。

Net, it's probably closer to approximately 10%.

淨值，可能接近 10% 左右。

Cash is going to vary though quarter to quarter.

每個季度的現金都會有所不同。

We typically have our heaviest cash balance or our highest cash balance at the end of the fiscal year, call it, roughly $3 billion.

我們通常在財政年度結束時擁有最大的現金餘額或最高的現金餘額，稱之為約 30 億美元。

And then the other quarter is probably anywhere from $1 billion to $2 billion.

然後另一個季度可能是 10 億到 20 億美元。

Got you.

明白你了。

That's really encouraging.

這確實令人鼓舞。

Okay, thanks a lot guys.

好的，非常感謝大家。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

卡爾雷查特 (Carl Reichardt)，BTIG。

Thanks everybody.

謝謝大家。

I want to talk about SG&A for a second.

我想談談 SG&A。

So talk -- Mike, I think you had talked about the growth rate in store count, the growth rate in lots and business people you've added.

所以說吧——麥克，我想你已經談到了商店數量的成長率、批次的成長率以及你所添加的業務人員。

We'll start to anniversary those growth rates.

我們將開始紀念這些成長率。

And you've talked about sort of balancing your pace with margins and returns more so and going forward.

您已經談到如何平衡您的步伐與利潤和回報，並且繼續前進。

So especially because you're not going to be guiding on this anymore, where do you sort of think your target SG&A ought to be?

特別是因為您不再對此提供指導，您認為您的目標 SG&A 應該在哪裡？

And when do you expect to see some better leverage on those SG&A dollars.

您預計什麼時候會看到這些 SG&A 美元有更好的槓桿作用。

Is it going to be later this year?

會是今年晚些時候嗎？

I know seasonally, it will happen or will we start to see more in the next couple of years?

我知道從季節性來看，這種情況會發生，或者我們會在未來幾年內開始看到更多？

You know, as was commented, we have made investments.

你知道，正如評論的那樣，我們已經進行了投資。

We've expanded our market count, increased our community counts.

我們擴大了市場數量，增加了社區數量。

As you know as well, Carl, we are always focused on being as efficient as we can.

如您所知，卡爾，我們始終致力於盡可能提高效率。

So we would expect to see leverage overall in our SG&A.

因此，我們預期在銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）中看到整體槓桿作用。

I think today, as we look at fiscal '25, we would expect our homebuilding SG&A percentage is probably a little higher than it was in '24, but we certainly expect to leverage those investments as we move beyond '25 into '26 in future years.

我認為，今天，當我們審視 25 財年時，我們預計我們的住宅建築 SG&A 百分比可能會比 24 財年略高，但我們當然希望在未來從 25 財年進入 26 財年時利用這些投資年。

We will be very focused on maintaining as efficient of an infrastructure as we can to support our growth.

我們將非常專注於盡可能保持基礎設施的效率，以支持我們的成長。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

And then about, I think, 65% or I think you said of your total lot you have with finished lot option contracts from developers.

然後，我想，大約有 65%，或者我想你說的，你擁有的總地塊中有開發商提供的已完成地塊期權合約。

The other 35%, can you talk about self-developed lots and sort of what I call farmer auctions versus land banking transactions.

另外 35%，您能談談自行開發的土地以及我所謂的農民拍賣與土地儲備交易嗎？

And can you talk a little bit comment at all about your perspective on land bank transactions versus doing self-development on your own books?

您能否談談您對土地儲備交易與自行開發的看法？

I think, Carl, the 65% we talked about other closings in the quarter were on lots that were developed by a third party or Forestar.

Carl，我想，我們談到的本季其他成交的 65% 是由第三方或 Forestar 開發的地塊。

So that would be a lot development professional entity that is developing finished lots for us.

因此，這將是一個為我們開發成品地塊的地塊開發專業實體。

And that comes from deals they source, projects we source and assign to them and enter into buyback contracts kind of runs the gamut there.

這來自於他們採購的交易、我們採購並分配給他們的項目以及簽訂的回購合約。

On the self-developed lots we -- the homes we closed on lots we self-developed, those were all done on our balance sheet, and we continue to explore other accretive ways for capital efficiency and whether that's sort of that, call it, land banking development services, land banking process, we continue to evaluate and are looking to drive the most efficient capital usage in our lot pipeline.

在我們自行開發的地塊上，我們在自己開發的地塊上關閉了房屋，這些都在我們的資產負債表上完成，我們繼續探索其他提高資本效率的增值方式，無論是不是這樣，土地儲備開發服務、土地儲備流程，我們將繼續評估並尋求在我們的土地儲備中推動最有效的資本利用。

We'll use land or lot bankers if we have an excess supply of finished lots that we're not ready for.

如果我們尚未準備好供應過剩的成品地塊，我們將使用土地或地塊銀行家。

But in terms of true traditional land development where you don't technically have a lot of risk transfer, we have little to no of that.

但就真正的傳統土地開發而言，技術上沒有太多風險轉移，我們幾乎沒有。

We're 100% focused on risk transfer in the structures of our contracts.

我們 100% 專注於合約結構中的風險轉移。

Thanks, Jess.

謝謝，傑西。

Thanks everyone.

謝謝大家。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Congrats on the results.

祝賀結果。

First question, I'd love to circle back to -- you had a comment in your prepared remarks around inventory levels.

第一個問題，我想回到——您在準備好的評論中對庫存水平發表了評論。

And the comment was, supply is still generally limited at affordable price points.

評論是，供應仍然普遍限制在可負擔的價格點。

I'd love to dial in into that a little bit and see if there's any regional differentiation that you've seen across inventory levels.

我很想稍微深入探討一下，看看您在庫存水準上是否發現了任何區域差異。

And as a result, perhaps which markets or regions that you operate in might be a little stronger versus a little weaker than the corporate average?

因此，也許您所在的哪些市場或地區可能比企業平均稍強或稍弱？

Yeah.

是的。

We have seen like has been reported, some buildup in the Florida market and certainly in certain of the Florida markets, a little more than others.

我們已經看到像報導中那樣，佛羅裡達市場有所積累，當然在佛羅裡達的某些市場，比其他市場多一點。

The same in some of the Texas markets.

德克薩斯州的一些市場也是如此。

But generally across the footprint, we feel like inventory is in pretty good shape.

但總體而言，我們認為庫存狀況相當良好。

We think that we and the other builders being pretty responsible in terms of watching the market, and based on what the market brings, sizing their inventory in kind and the resale market is just going to continue to play out as people loosen up and eventually move and put their homes on the market.

我們認為，我們和其他建築商在觀察市場方面非常負責任，並根據市場帶來的情況，調整實體庫存規模，隨著人們放鬆並最終搬家，轉售市場將繼續發揮作用並將他們的房屋投放市場。

Okay.

好的。

Appreciate that.

很欣賞這一點。

I guess, secondly, your option lot percentage of 76%.

其次，我猜你的選擇權手數百分比是 76%。

I think you kind of maybe reached over the last year or two, a high of 80%.

我認為你可能在過去一兩年達到了 80% 的高點。

I think in the past, you've talked about most likely not going below a year's worth of owned supply.

我認為過去，您曾談到很可能不會低於一年的自有供應量。

Maybe you kind of stay in that 1 year, 1.5 years range.

也許你會停留在 1 年、1.5 年的範圍內。

So as we look forward, I know you're talking still about improving inventory turns or build cycle times.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我知道您仍在談論改善庫存週轉或建置週期時間。

I'm just wondering how you guys think about further improvement on capital efficiency.

我只是想知道你們如何看待進一步提高資本效率。

What are those levers that you look to move?

您希望推動哪些槓桿？

And if there's any rethinking of where that option lot percentage or years owned supply might be able to go over the next three to five years?

是否會重新考慮未來三到五年內的選擇權份額百分比或自有供應年數可能會走向何方？

Well, Mike, we -- our average is 76% across our operations.

好吧，麥克，我們的平均營運率為 76%。

We do have markets that it's higher than that.

我們確實有比這個更高的市場。

And we obviously, have markets said it's lower than that as well.

顯然，市場表示這個數字也低於這個數字。

So we are still focused on continuing to ensure that we have a good network of third-party developers, and we're utilizing Forestar as much as we can.

因此，我們仍然專注於繼續確保我們擁有良好的第三方開發者網絡，並且我們正在盡可能地利用 Forestar。

So there still is opportunity for some of those markets that are at a lower option percentage to increase that.

因此，對於一些選擇權比例較低的市場來說，仍有機會增加選擇權比例。

As Jessica did state earlier, we are very focused on risk transfer.

正如傑西卡之前所說，我們非常關注風險轉移。

And so if we're going to pay or to use a third party to whether it's banking or developing lots, we're balancing what we're paying versus what the risk transfer and the capital efficiency benefits are.

因此，如果我們要支付或使用第三方，無論是銀行業務還是開發地塊，我們都會平衡我們所支付的費用與風險轉移和資本效率收益。

And so that's something we do continue to evaluate, as Mike said earlier, and we expect there will be opportunities for us to find ways to get more efficient with our lot pipeline going forward.

因此，正如麥克之前所說，我們確實會繼續評估這一點，我們預計我們將有機會找到提高批次管道效率的方法。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks guys.

謝謝你們。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·鮑利，巴克萊銀行。

Morning everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

So the closings guidance, I think, for the second half implies something like 52,000 homes closed or maybe 30% or so higher than the first half.

因此，我認為，下半年的關閉指引意味著大約有 52,000 套房屋關閉，或者可能比上半年高出 30% 左右。

I think is a little bit greater than normal or at least history.

我認為這比正常情況或至少是歷史要大一些。

So I just want to get some color around your confidence in that step-up in closings.

所以我只是想了解你們對結束語的信心提升。

And it sounds like better cycle times, as you keep alluding to, for sure, as part of that, but just any other assumptions we should consider that you're making in that kind of step up there?

這聽起來像是更好的周期時間，正如您一直提到的那樣，當然，作為其中的一部分，但是我們應該考慮您在這種步驟中所做的任何其他假設嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

No.

不。

I think we just -- we feel good about our efficiency today.

我認為我們對今天的效率感到滿意。

We feel very good about our position of housing inventory as well as the lot inventory that we need to achieve those numbers.

我們對我們的房屋庫存狀況以及實現這些數字所需的地塊庫存狀況感到非常滿意。

Of course, we're very early in the spring selling season, and we need the spring to show up for us and to see the sales.

當然，我們還處於春季銷售旺季的早期，我們需要春天出現並看到銷售情況。

But we believe that our operators are positioned to take advantage of the spring selling season be in position to deliver on our guide of 90,000 to 92,000 homes for the year.

但我們相信，我們的營運商有能力利用春季銷售旺季，實現我們全年 90,000 至 92,000 套房屋的銷售目標。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

And then secondly, back on the gross margin.

其次，回到毛利率。

It sounded like the margin exited December a little lower than the prior two months, if I heard you correctly.

如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來 12 月的利潤率比前兩個月略低。

So is that second quarter margin guide assuming that the margin on homes, I guess, sold and closed during Q2 would be similar to December or lower than December?

那麼，第二季利潤率指南是否假設第二季出售和關閉的房屋利潤率將與 12 月相似或低於 12 月？

And I guess, conceptually, at what point would you look to kind of more hold the line on the gross margin?

我想，從概念上講，您會在什麼時候尋求更多地控制毛利率？

Thank you.

謝謝。

So we continue to look at traffic and demand we see in the neighborhoods to affect the pricing and the margin about maximizing the returns for us at a community level.

因此，我們繼續關注社區的交通和需求，以影響價格和利潤，從而在社區層面實現回報最大化。

But we entered the quarter in a roughly 6% mortgage environment, and we exited the quarter in a 7% mortgage environment, which is what we kind of rolled into Q2 with.

但我們在大約 6% 的抵押貸款環境中進入本季度，並在 7% 的抵押貸款環境中退出本季度，這就是我們進入第二季度的情況。

And so that's coloring our margin outlook as well, looking at perhaps being a bit lower than December as we work our way through second quarter.

因此，這也影響了我們的利潤率前景，預計第二季的利潤率可能會比 12 月低。

But it is the spring, and it is historically a better selling season.

但現在是春天，也是歷史上銷售較好的季節。

And we're optimistic about the trends we see.

我們對所看到的趨勢感到樂觀。

All right.

好的。

Thanks guys.

謝謝你們。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。

Awesome.

驚人的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

So maybe just a follow-up on the prior question here.

所以也許只是對之前問題的跟進。

Could you guys give us a sense as to what gross margin is embedded in your backlog on houses that you plan to close in the second quarter.

你們能否讓我們了解一下你們計劃在第二季度關閉的積壓房屋的毛利率是多少？

Kind of just curious for a rough number there.

只是對那裡的粗略數字感到好奇。

And then maybe one other number on that point would be any sense as to what the bought-down rate is in your backlog.

然後也許關於這一點的另一個數字對於您的積壓訂單中的買斷率有任何意義。

I believe you provided that in past quarters.

我相信您在過去的幾個季度中已經提供了這一點。

So just curious if we've got an updated number there.

所以只是好奇我們是否有更新的號碼。

Sure.

當然。

With regard to the margin and backlog, that is one of the key items that we do have visibility to when we're preparing our guide.

關於利潤和積壓，這是我們在準備指南時可以看到的關鍵項目之一。

So our margin in backlog is relatively consistent with the range that we're providing here for Q2.

因此，我們的積壓利潤與我們在第二季度提供的範圍相對一致。

And then in terms of prevailing rate that we're offering in the market today, generally between $4.99 to $5.99 range depending on the product is what's prevailing out there really for the last little while across our sales offices.

然後，就我們今天在市場上提供的主流價格而言，通常在 4.99 美元到 5.99 美元之間，具體取決於產品，這是我們銷售辦事處過去一段時間真正流行的價格。

And there's really no meaningful change in that average rate this quarter versus last quarter.

本季的平均利率與上季相比確實沒有任何有意義的變化。

No, that helps.

不，這有幫助。

And then maybe more of a higher-level question on labor costs and stick and brick costs.

然後可能是關於勞動力成本和木棍和磚塊成本的更高級別的問題。

It sounds like those are looking to hold in Q2, although correct me if I'm wrong.

聽起來那些人希望保住第二季度，但如果我錯了，請糾正我。

But -- maybe could you just talk a little bit more broadly about your ability to manage higher costs on these two buckets from some of these exogenous factors we're seeing, whether it's the new administration's tone on remigration or higher material costs on the back of natural disaster rebuild.

但是，也許您可以更廣泛地談談您管理這兩個方面更高成本的能力，這些成本來自我們所看到的一些外生因素，無論是新政府在移民問題上的基調還是背後更高的材料成本自然災害重建。

Just trying to get your rough sense as to sort of how you manage through those should we see inflation in labor, and stick and brick?

只是想了解您如何應對這些問題，我們是否應該看到勞動力、棍棒和磚塊的通貨膨脹？

I think today, we are seeing good access to -- we have the labor we need and we have the materials we need, and that's what's allowed us to continue to see improvements in our cycle time.

我認為今天，我們看到了良好的獲取途徑——我們擁有所需的勞動力和所需的材料，這使我們能夠繼續看到週期時間的改進。

And given that, we've been able to hold pretty tight on pricing for both materials and labor.

有鑑於此，我們能夠相當嚴格地控製材料和勞動力的定價。

It has yet to play out to see what happens with this administration and what that impact is either through tariffs and/or labor if it becomes a little more scarce but we feel good about our positioning in the markets with our market share and our ability to maintain the labor and the parts and pieces we need and still don't expect to see much inflation in either of those over the next 12 months.

目前還不清楚本屆政府會發生什麼，以及如果勞動力變得更加稀缺的話，這種影響會透過關稅和/或勞動力產生什麼影響，但我們對我們在市場中的定位以及我們的市場份額和我們的能力感到滿足。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I'll pass it on.

我會把它傳遞下去。

Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research.

艾瑞克‧博斯哈德，克里夫蘭研究中心。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks.

謝謝。

I have two things, if I could.

如果可以的話，我有兩件事。

First of all, in terms of affordability, I'm curious as you think looking forward, I think your ASP indicated it's down 1%.

首先，就負擔能力而言，我很好奇您對未來的看法，我認為您的平均售價表明下降了 1%。

Is there something more meaningful that you're considering or taking steps towards to address affordability?

您正在考慮或採取措施來解決負擔能力問題，是否有更有意義的事情？

I know you talked about smaller homes, but is there a need to unlock or an opportunity to unlock demand by doing something more meaningful in changing the product and changing your ASP?

我知道您談到了較小的房屋，但是是否有必要透過在改變產品和改變您的平均售價方面做一些更有意義的事情來解鎖或有機會解鎖需求？

Hard to say that we can make a massive swing in the near term from what we're doing.

很難說我們可以在短期內對我們正在做的事情做出巨大的改變。

I mean, it's kind of an incremental change neighborhood by neighborhood.

我的意思是，這是一種逐個社區的漸進式改變。

You're kind of, I don't want to say locked in, but for the lots that are on the ground and that are approved by the municipalities.

我不想說你被鎖定了，但對於地面上並得到市政府批准的地塊。

Oftentimes, they're also approving some product parameters and guidelines that kind of limit our ability to flex significantly within a short call it, a six- to nine-month time frame.

通常，他們也會批准一些產品參數和指南，這在某種程度上限制了我們在短期（六到九個月的時間範圍）內大幅調整的能力。

Longer term, we continue to evaluate ways to be more efficient in the usage of land and development dollars relative to the stick-and-brick costs, it takes to deliver a certain number of bedrooms, bathrooms and square footage for a homeowner.

從長遠來看，我們將繼續評估如何更有效地利用土地和開發資金（相對於磚塊成本），為房主提供一定數量的臥室、浴室和平方英尺。

For data points this quarter on homes we closed, our average square footage was down 1% from a year ago, which has been down a low single-digit percentage share for the last couple of years.

對於本季我們關閉的房屋的數據點，我們的平均面積比一年前下降了 1%，在過去幾年中，這一比例下降了較低的個位數百分比。

Sequentially, it was relatively flat, and we did see another tick up in the number of attached homes, so call it townhomes and duplexes that we closed, that was roughly 17% of our business, which was up from 15% sequentially.

隨後，它相對持平，我們確實看到我們關閉的附屬房屋（我們稱之為聯排別墅和複式住宅）數量再次增加，大約占我們業務的 17%，高於上一季的 15%。

Okay.

好的。

And then secondly, I know as you look forward to the spring selling season, rates were 7%, rates were 6%, rates are 7%.

其次，我知道正如你們所期待的春季銷售季節，利率是 7%，利率是 6%，利率是 7%。

Is your customer behaving differently with rates back at 7%.

您的客戶的行為是否有所不同，利率回到 7%？

Curious, especially in an environment where it feels like we're a little bit higher for longer.

很好奇，尤其是在一個感覺我們更高一點、更長時間的環境中。

Is the consumer responding to incentives the same way?

消費者對激勵措施的反應是否相同？

Is traffic the same or is it different this time back at 7%?

這次回到 7% 的流量是相同還是不同？

We still -- our best incentive and most impactful to the consumer is utilizing some form of rate buying.

我們仍然——我們最好的激勵措施和對消費者最有影響力的措施是利用某種形式的利率購買。

And that has increased for us throughout the quarter to try and maintain rates that seem to be in at least a comfortable enough place for them to move forward as far as their monthly payment.

在整個季度中，我們都在努力維持利率，使他們至少能夠繼續支付每月的付款。

Still we're successful in achieving what we needed to in the quarter with 53% of the homes closed in the quarter, sold in the quarter.

儘管如此，我們還是成功地實現了本季所需的目標，53% 的房屋在本季關閉並在本季售出。

So we were able to navigate it through this past quarter.

因此，我們能夠順利度過過去的一個季度。

It's still early.

現在還早。

We're only a couple of weeks into this quarter.

本季度剛過去幾週。

But so far, I've been pleased with the traffic levels and with the sales pace that we're seeing in our models.

但到目前為止，我對我們在模型中看到的流量水平和銷售速度感到滿意。

We'll see how that continues.

我們將看看情況如何繼續。

It's got a long way to go on the spring selling season.

春季銷售旺季還有很長的路要走。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

I wonder if you can give an update on what you're seeing with consumer debt levels and if you're seeing any real change in sort of availability or ability to qualify?

我想知道您是否可以提供有關消費者債務水平的最新信息，以及您是否看到可用性或資格能力方面有任何真正的變化？

And then when you look at kind of the first -- true first-time buyer versus more of a move, is one group may be holding up better than the other?

然後，當你觀察真正的首次購房者與更多的搬家者時，是否有一組可能比另一組表現得更好？

I would say that today, we've got the levels of traffic in our offices.

我想說的是，今天我們辦公室的交通狀況是這樣的。

It's a little easier for that move up buyer to move forward.

對於晉升的買家來說，前進會更容易一些。

Just to get to the sale and get to the final determination, certainly, that's been a little stronger the last quarter.

當然，為了進行銷售並做出最終決定，上個季度的情況要強一些。

We haven't seen a significant change in really the debt level or the credit makeup of our buyers because we do sell 59%, I think, of our buyers through our mortgage company this past quarter were first-time homebuyers.

我們還沒有看到買家的債務水平或信用組成發生重大變化，因為我認為上個季度透過抵押貸款公司出售的買家中有 59% 是首次購房者。

We live in the world where if we could open up -- go down on the credit score significantly, it would significantly open up the buyer available to us, but we spend a lot of time in our sales offices working through those credit challenges and our buyers to get them in a position to buy their first home.

我們生活在這樣一個世界：如果我們能夠開放——信用評分大幅下降，這將大大開放我們可以找到的買家，但我們在銷售辦公室花費了大量時間來應對這些信用挑戰和我們的信用挑戰。家有能力購買他們的第一套房子。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just following up on smaller format homes or products like town homes or duplexes, understanding it varies by community.

然後追蹤小型住宅或聯排別墅或複式住宅等產品，了解它因社區而異。

Is it possible to talk about sort of how the returns or the gross margin profile of smaller-format homes compares with a more traditional offering, if at all?

是否可以談談小型住宅的回報或毛利率狀況與更傳統的產品相比如何？

It's very similar, actually.

實際上非常相似。

If we look at our product and project performances, the margin is going to be very similar.

如果我們看看我們的產品和專案績效，就會發現利潤率會非常相似。

If you're well positioned with the right product, the right price, the right house, whether it's attached or detached, you're going to get similar outcomes in your margin and your returns.

如果您擁有合適的產品、合適的價格、合適的房子，無論是連體式還是獨立式，您都將在利潤和回報方面獲得類似的結果。

Mike Dahl, RBC Capital Markets.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask about the pretax margin guidance.

我想詢問稅前利潤指引。

I appreciate that going forward, you want to frame your business this way.

我很欣賞您今後希望以這種方式建立您的業務。

But if I look at it, you're guiding pretax margins at the midpoint down 280 basis points year on year and gross margins, you're really only guiding down 150 basis points.

但如果我看一下，你指導的稅前利潤率中點同比下降了 280 個基點，而毛利率實際上只指導下降了 150 個基點。

So can you -- it seems like there is something else kind of underneath the surface, whether it's on rentals or SG&A or Forestar this quarter, specifically in terms of 2Q.

你也可以嗎——表面之下似乎還有其他一些東西，無論是本季的租金、SG&A 還是 Forestar，特別是第二季。

So can you help us understand that?

那麼你能幫助我們理解這一點嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Rental margins are lower, as we commented on the call that due to the capital markets uncertainty and higher interest rates, buyers of rental properties really over the last year have -- it's been more challenging for them.

租金利潤率較低，正如我們在電話會議中所評論的那樣，由於資本市場的不確定性和利率上升，去年租賃房產的買家確實面臨更大的挑戰。

So margins in that business have been lower.

因此該業務的利潤率較低。

It's a business that we're continuing to move forward with and would expect that in 2025, we're dealing with some supply out there that is a challenge, but that should alleviate as we move to the latter part of '25 and into '26.

我們正在繼續推進這項業務，預計到 2025 年，我們將面臨一些供應挑戰，但隨著我們進入 25 世紀下半年並進入 2025 年，這一挑戰應該會得到緩解。

But I'd say primarily the change in the year-over-year gross margin beyond the homebuilding change would be in the rental segment.

但我想說，除了房屋建築變化之外，同比毛利率的變化主要是在租賃領域。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

So year-on-year rental revenue and margin down significantly, biggest driver.

因此，租金收入和利潤率較去年同期大幅下降，是最大的推動因素。

Yeah.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then I guess going back to kind of the price versus pace discussion.

然後我想回到價格與速度的討論。

I guess as you think about it, and again, you've added some -- you've made a point of -- that you added some additional slides around the return focus and change the way that you're guiding certain things.

我想當你思考它時，你再次添加了一些——你已經強調了——你在返回焦點周圍添加了一些額外的幻燈片，並改變了你指導某些事情的方式。

So -- I know you've been return focused for a while.

所以——我知道你已經專注回歸一段時間了。

But in the current environment, is that focus actually like shifting you to be a little bit more biased towards let's keep things kind of a little bit actually more kind of price and margin focus versus volume in the near term.

但在當前環境下，這種關注實際上會讓你更偏向於讓我們在短期內保持對價格和利潤率的關注，而不是對數量的關注。

How would you say that your views are evolving there?

您認為您的觀點在那裡正在演變嗎？

Well, we continue to evaluate the business at a community level.

好吧，我們繼續在社區層面評估業務。

Community by community, our local operators are making decisions based upon the lot supply they have in a given project or a given submarket relative to demand that they're currently seeing in that market and looking to price and start homes, price those homes, and sell those homes at a pace that's going to maximize the margin available at that pace and for what that submarket can absorb.

我們的本地營運商正在逐一社區地根據他們在給定項目或給定子市場中擁有的地塊供應相對於他們目前在該市場中看到的需求做出決策，並尋求定價和啟動房屋，為這些房屋定價，以及以一定的速度出售這些房屋，以最大限度地提高該速度下的可用利潤以及該子市場可以吸收的量。

And it's very much -- again, I know it's repetitive about saying this, but it's very much a community-by-community buildup of what's happening.

再次強調，我知道這樣說是重複的，但這很大程度上是各個社區對正在發生的事情的累積。

And we see the best outcomes there.

我們在那裡看到了最好的結果。

And we don't, at the corporate level, dictate a pace or a margin to the field.

在公司層面，我們不會規定該領域的步伐或利潤。

We asked them to maximize the returns.

我們要求他們最大化回報。

And there are times when you lean more heavily into pace to get pace up.

有時，您會更加重視節奏以加快步伐。

And then once pace is up, you can oftentimes bring margin behind the sales to help drive the returns up.

一旦步伐加快，您通常可以在銷售後增加利潤，以幫助提高回報。

But it's a balance that -- it's probably a lot more art for us than it is science.

但這是一種平衡——對我們來說，它可能更多的是藝術而不是科學。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research Partners.

Ken Zener，海港研究合作夥伴。

Hello, everybody, and happy new year Could you give color around the margin spread between the 47% backlog closings and the 53% spec as well as comment on -- because you're at 126 markets, most of the builders are about 50 markets are most of their closings.

大家好，新年快樂。市場是他們大部分的關閉。

Could you also talk maybe about the margin spread we see between those top 50 markets and your other 76 markets?

您能否也談談我們在前 50 個市場和其他 76 個市場之間看到的保證金差距？

So your first part of your question was between backlog and our spec closings

所以你的問題的第一部分是在積壓和我們的規範關閉之間

--?

——？

Between the sold and closed in the same quarter.

同一季度的售出和成交之間。

I don't think we have that breakdown.

我不認為我們有這種崩潰。

I would say the 47% that were sold prior to the quarter and it's slightly different -- in a lower interest rate environment, we're going to be at a higher margin than what we exited the quarter at in December.

我想說的是，本季之前售出的 47% 的產品略有不同——在較低的利率環境下，我們的利潤率將高於 12 月本季結束時的利潤率。

But I don't have -- I can't give you any magnitude, Ken.

但我沒有——我不能給你任何程度的信息，肯。

I don't have that in front of me.

我面前沒有那個。

Okay.

好的。

I think in the past, you guys talked about a couple of hundred basis points, I mean multi-years ago.

我想在過去，你們談論過幾百個基點，我是說很多年前。

So I didn't know if that might be a

所以我不知道這是否可能是

--

--

That would have been build-to-order versus spec.

這將是按訂單生產與規格生產。

Okay.

好的。

Regional margins, you guys stand out versus many of the peers in having very similar regional margins across your business.

區域利潤率，你們在整個業務中擁有非常相似的區域利潤率，從而在許多同行中脫穎而出。

Is there any reason we didn't necessarily see more dispersion of margins in your business because Florida, Texas, the West, they're all pretty similar in that 16% range LTM?

有沒有任何原因導致我們不一定會看到貴公司的利潤分佈更加分散，因為佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州、西部地區的 LTM 範圍都非常相似，均為 16%？

Just curious as to why perhaps we didn't see more of a spike in some markets versus others.

只是好奇為什麼我們在某些​​市場上沒有看到比其他市場更多的高峰。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

I think, not exactly sure, Ken, I think there's just an aggregation of enough markets in each one of our regional groupings that it kind of blends out any specific market differences where the market is performing differently or our execution is different.

我認為，不太確定，肯，我認為我們每個區域集團中都有足夠的市場聚合，這在某種程度上融合了市場表現不同或我們的執行不同的任何特定市場差異。

All of our markets are focused on maximizing returns community by community.

我們所有的市場都專注於最大化社區回報。

And so it's a balance between margin and pace and inventory turns.

因此，這是利潤率、速度和庫存週轉率之間的平衡。

And so yeah, the better the margin, the better returns generally as well.

所以，是的，利潤率越高，回報通常也越高。

And so that is focused across the Board.

因此，這是整個董事會的重點。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Great.

偉大的。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First, I want to -- just on the land inflation that you're seeing today.

首先，我想談談你們今天看到的土地通膨。

I think you said up 3% quarter over quarter.

我想你說的是季度環比增長 3%。

Can you just run us in what that implies for the year-over-year trend?

您能否向我們介紹一下這對同比趨勢意味著什麼？

And then how do we think about that for the remainder of the year?

那我們要如何看待今年剩下的時間呢？

I mean how does that compare to what you're contracting today, like are you seeing any relief there that we'll see flow through later on?

我的意思是，與您今天簽訂的合約相比，情況如何？

On a year-over-year basis, we were up 10%, which we've been up a high single to low double digit year over year for the last at least 4 to 6 quarters.

與去年同期相比，我們成長了 10%，在過去至少 4 到 6 個季度中，我們的年成長一直是高個位數到低兩位數。

And on a sequential, it has continued to be just a low to mid-single-digit increase.

從環比來看，它仍然只是低至中個位數的成長。

I think our base case is going forward, it will remain a low to mid-single for the foreseeable future.

我認為我們的基本情況正在向前發展，在可預見的未來它將保持中低。

We're not necessarily seeing land prices come down, certainly not development costs when you look at an all-in lot cost.

當你考慮總成本時，我們不一定會看到土地價格下降，當然也不會看到開發成本下降。

But we do think, on a year-over-year basis here at some point over the next couple of quarters, that should moderate to a mid- to maybe just high single digit.

但我們確實認為，在未來幾季的某個時候，與去年同期相比，這個數字應該會放緩至中位數或高個位數。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just on the change in the share repurchase outlook especially like the pace, if you stepped it up in the guidance.

然後，如果您在指導中加快步伐，那麼股票回購前景的變化尤其如此。

Can you talk about -- have you continued that pace of buyback quarter-to-date?

您能否談談本季至今是否持續維持回購步伐？

And then how do we think about sort of the pace as we go through the year?

那我們如何看待這一年的節奏呢？

Was the step-up in buyback in the quarter related to just where the stock price was?

本季回購力度的加大是否與股價水準有關？

Or is there any change in sort of philosophy or strategy in terms of like the pace of capital return relative to free cash flow?

或者在資本回報相對於自由現金流的速度方面，理念或策略是否有任何變化？

Yeah, no change overall in strategy.

是的，整體策略沒有改變。

We will manage our repurchases within our liquidity availability and our balance sheet targets, but we do have the flexibility within that liquidity to be able to accelerate repurchases when the share price is under some pressure.

我們將在流動性可用性和資產負債表目標範圍內管理回購，但我們確實在流動性範圍內具有靈活性，能夠在股價面臨一定壓力時加速回購。

Obviously, we saw that this quarter and that continued really through the end of the quarter.

顯然，我們在本季度看到了這種情況，並且這種情況一直持續到本季末。

So we continue to be a bit more aggressive in our repurchases.

因此，我們在回購方面繼續更加積極。

And judging based on where the stock price has been early this quarter, obviously, we're still out in the market.

根據本季初的股價來判斷，顯然我們仍然在市場之外。

And so we are still being active.

所以我們仍然很活躍。

I would characterize some of the increase in the first quarter as an acceleration implied by our guide of the $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion.

我將第一季的部分成長描述為我們的 26 億美元至 28 億美元指南所暗示的加速。

We did increase that guide, but not by the full amount that you -- that the acceleration would have occurred in Q1.

我們確實增加了該指南，但沒有增加您的全部數量——加速將在第一季度發生。

So we continue to -- we manage based on our overall plan, what we feel like our liquidity and balance sheet and our cash flow will allow.

因此，我們將繼續根據我們的整體計劃、我們認為我們的流動性、資產負債表以及現金流量所允許的情況進行管理。

But we will see it ebb and flow a bit depending on where the valuation of the stock is and when we see some opportunities to take advantage of dips in the stock.

但我們會看到它的波動性起伏，這取決於股票的估值水平以及我們何時看到一些利用股票下跌的機會。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Trevor Allinson, Wolf Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

First, can you just talk about any different demand trends geographically, Southeast and South Central were two weaker regions for you guys on a year-over-year basis.

首先，您能談談地理位置上的不同需求趨勢嗎？

So perhaps any demand commentary in Texas and Florida would be helpful.

因此，德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州的任何需求評論也許都會有所幫助。

Alright.

好吧。

Yeah.

是的。

I think that as we talked to a little earlier, some of the buildup we've seen in inventory has had some impact on sales when you look at portions of the Florida market and as well isolated to some of the Texas markets, where they saw a significant run-up in valuations.

我認為，正如我們之前談到的那樣，當你看看佛羅裡達州的部分市場以及德克薩斯州的一些市場時，我們看到的庫存積累對銷售產生了一些影響，他們在這些市場上看到了估值大幅上漲。

We've seen some moderation there.

我們已經看到了一些溫和的態度。

But generally, as we enter into the spring, we've been pleased with what we've seen in these first few weeks in our sales offices across our footprint.

但總的來說，當我們進入春季時，我們對前幾週在我們的銷售辦事處所看到的情況感到滿意。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then second question, understanding it's early and a lot of unknowns with the new administration.

第二個問題，了解新政府還為時過早，還有很多未知因素。

Can you just give us some color on some potential impacts that you think could be possible if we were to see a major change on immigration or then also tariffs on China and Mexico?

您能否為我們介紹一下您認為如果我們看到移民方面發生重大變化或對中國和墨西哥徵收關稅可能產生的一些潛在影響？

Just what kind of impact do you guys think that could potentially have on you?

你們認為這可能會對你們產生什麼樣的影響？

Hard to foresee what the impact would be, and we're not sure what the change is going to be yet.

很難預見會產生什麼影響，我們也不確定會發生什麼變化。

So we continue to, as Bill said before, prepared to provide an affordable product for our buyers that we can get a homeowner into and qualify for the mortgage.

因此，正如比爾之前所說，我們繼續準備為我們的買家提供負擔得起的產品，讓房主有資格獲得抵押貸款。

And so we do everything we can to bring that affordability into play.

因此，我們盡一切努力發揮這種負擔能力。

And if there is cost increases, that is not going to be helpful for housing affordability.

如果成本增加，這對住房負擔能力沒有幫助。

And I do think housing affordability is a stated goal of the administration.

我確實認為住房負擔能力是政府的既定目標。

So we're hopeful that they're able to do some things that will help drive affordability.

因此，我們希望他們能夠做一些有助於提高負擔能力的事情。

And we have had to deal with both immigration changes and tariffs in the past.

過去我們必須應對移民變化和關稅。

So it's something that we're familiar with.

所以這是我們熟悉的東西。

And likely, although it is way too early to say the ultimate outcome, likely it's more regional in nature than something sweeping across our entire footprint, but it remains to be seen.

儘管現在說最終結果還為時過早，但很可能它本質上更具區域性，而不是席捲我們整個足跡的東西，但仍有待觀察。

Buck Horne, Raymond James.

巴克·霍恩，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Just one quick one for me.

對我來說只是一個快速的。

I was wondering if you've seen any inbound or uptick in inbound interest from single-family rental investors in some of the longer-dated finished unsold inventory or would you consider maybe negotiating or doing a bulk deal if an SFR investor wanted to come in and take some of that inventory off your hands?

我想知道您是否看到單戶租賃投資者對一些較長期的成品未售庫存有任何入境或入境興趣上升，或者如果 SFR 投資者想要進入，您是否會考慮進行談判或進行大宗交易並從你手中拿走一些庫存？

We have really maintained our single-family for rent business as more of a merchant build.

我們確實維持了我們的單戶出租業務，更像是一個商業建築。

We have plenty of opportunity for those buyers to sell into those, and that can -- as we stated in our prepared remarks, we have started to do some of those more on a forward sale ahead of final stabilization.

我們有很多機會讓這些買家出售這些產品，正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們已經開始在最終穩定之前進行更多的遠期銷售。

So we have plenty to offer to those buyers.

因此，我們有很多東西可以提供給這些買家。

We tend to haven't been heavy at all in selling in bulk our inventory.

我們往往根本不大量銷售我們的庫存。

We're very comfortable with the inventory we have.

我們對現有的庫存感到非常滿意。

We've largely maintained the number of completed inventory units, and that's exactly where we want to be as we enter into the spring selling season.

我們基本上維持了已完工庫存單位的數量，這正是我們進入春季銷售季節時想要達到的水平。

So we feel good about our inventory on both sides of that on the for sale and on a build-for-rent basis.

因此，我們對出售和出租方面的庫存都感到滿意。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

My first question is on the consumer and the rate environment.

我的第一個問題是關於消費者和利率環境。

If the Fed does cut less than expected or fewer times than expected this year versus, say, last year.

如果聯準會今年的降息幅度確實低於預期或少於預期，例如去年。

But rates realize some level of stability as a result of that.

但利率因此實現了一定程度的穩定。

Do you think that that could be enough to ease some of the uncertainty or some of the fears that are leaving people on the sidelines?

您認為這足以緩解一些不確定性或一些讓人觀望的恐懼嗎？

Or do you think that we actually need to see rates come down to see more of a lift in confidence and activity?

或者您認為我們實際上需要看到利率下降才能看到信心和活動的更多提升？

I think we'd take great stability all day long.

我想我們會整天保持高度穩定。

If we could pick something today, it's much easier to manage our business and drive affordability if we know what the rate is going to be.

如果我們今天可以選擇一些東西，如果我們知道利率是多少，那麼管理我們的業務並提高可負擔性就會容易得多。

And I think if rates remain stable for an extended period of time, that's going to get consumers off the fence that need to buy a house.

我認為，如果利率長期穩定，消費者就不再需要買房。

They'll ultimately reset their expectations on what they can afford if they thought rates were going to go lower and they ultimately don't.

如果他們認為利率會下降而最終卻沒有下降，他們最終會重新調整自己的預期，確定自己能負擔的費用。

So -- we don't have a base case scenario, nothing in our guidance assumes rate declines as we move throughout the year.

因此，我們沒有基本情景，我們的指導中沒有任何內容假設利率會隨著全年的變化而下降。

Certainly, that would be helpful.

當然，這會有幫助。

But really, we would just take rate stability as pretty positive as we move throughout the year

但實際上，隨著我們全年的走勢，我們只會認為利率穩定性相當積極

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just one last question on the rental side of things.

最後一個問題是關於租賃方面的。

You did mention efforts to realize greater efficiencies and some operational execution there.

您確實提到了為實現更高效率和一些營運執行所做的努力。

As you think about eventually improving that margin, how much of that can come from your own efforts versus a shift in the overall market?

當您考慮最終提高利潤率時，其中有多少可以來自您自己的努力，而不是整個市場的變化？

I think what we're looking at there, Susan, is the ability to sell some of the projects prior to stabilization from a greater capital efficiency perspective from us.

蘇珊，我認為我們所關注的是在穩定之前從我們更大的資本效率角度出售一些項目的能力。

So in terms of -- we're always looking to control our stick-and-brick cost and operate efficiently.

因此，就我們而言，我們一直在尋求控制我們的整體成本並有效運作。

That's just part of the DNA in the homebuilding for sale platform as well as across the rental platform.

這只是房屋銷售平台以及整個租賃平台 DNA 的一部分。

But to see some materially different changes in the financial performance and selling those assets, it takes a fundamental increase in rents, net operating income and decrease in cap rates to truly change the valuation on those.

但要看到財務表現和出售這些資產發生一些重大不同的變化，就需要租金、淨營業收入的根本性成長和資本化率的下降，才能真正改變這些資產的估值。

We can do everything to control the cost side, but the efficiency side we're focusing on that is working with some of the buyers of the build-to-rent communities to sell them earlier in the process, prior stabilization.

我們可以盡一切努力來控製成本方面，但我們關注的效率方面是與建租社區的一些買家合作，在流程穩定之前儘早出售它們。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good luck with everything.

祝一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Barrón from Housing Research Center.

來自住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫（Alex Barrón）。

Thanks everybody, and good start to the year.

謝謝大家，祝今年有個好的開始。

I wanted to ask some of your competitors seem to have a philosophy of trying to sell a certain number of homes and do whatever it takes to get there, even if it means offering super low interest rates.

我想問你們的一些競爭對手似乎有一種理念，即試圖出售一定數量的房屋，並盡一切努力達到目標，即使這意味著提供超低的利率。

Wondering if you guys have maintained the same approach to the business that you have historically or whether you guys have maybe approached it a little differently in terms of your willingness to balance margin versus pace.

想知道你們是否保持了與歷史上相同的業務方法，或者在平衡利潤與速度的意願方面是否採取了稍微不同的方法。

If you can comment on that.

如果你能對此發表評論。

I think as we have alluded to earlier, it's always a community-by-community buildup.

我認為正如我們之前提到的，這始終是社區與社區之間的累積。

And we're looking for a consistent pace in those communities that allows us to drive margin and a return community by community.

我們正在這些社區中尋找一致的步伐，使我們能夠提高利潤並逐個社區地獲得回報。

So we aren't making that decision from here.

所以我們不會從這裡做出決定。

We do rely on our local operators to balance what they need to.

我們確實依賴當地業者來平衡他們的需求。

They need to be competitive in the market.

他們需要在市場上具有競爭力。

So sometimes we may offer a rate or an incentive beyond where we would hope to, but at the end of the day, we're going to be competitive in the market to achieve the absorptions we need.

因此，有時我們可能會提供超出我們希望的價格或激勵措施，但最終，我們將在市場上具有競爭力，以實現我們所需的吸收。

And when we get on pace, it allows us to drive margin and therefore, returns at a higher level.

當我們跟上步伐時，我們就能提高利潤率，從而獲得更高水準的回報。

But it's a community by community, market by market daily activity for our operators.

但這是我們運營商的一個又一個社區、一個又一個市場的日常活動。

Got it.

知道了。

And then wondering if you can comment on Forestar.

然後想知道您是否可以對 Forestar 發表評論。

It seems like there are a number of lots sold, I suppose, mostly to you was lower than expected generally, but they seem to maintain the same number for the year.

我想，似乎有很多拍品已售出，大部分對您來說都低於預期，但今年的數量似乎保持不變。

So was that just a timing issue?

那麼這只是一個時間問題嗎？

Or anything you can comment on that?

或者您對此有何評論？

Yeah.

是的。

It was purely timing.

這純粹是時機問題。

Alex, they do expect their lot deliveries to increase throughout the remainder of the year.

亞歷克斯，他們確實預計今年剩餘時間內的批量交付量會增加。

They had a pretty heavy percentage that they sold to us in Q4, and it was a little bit lighter in Q1, but we would just say that's timing related.

他們在第四季度向我們出售的產品所佔的比例相當大，而第一季的比例則稍低一些，但我們只能說這與時間有關。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

傑德·拉赫馬尼，KBW。

Can you comment on the pricing environment that's out there and whether the guidance assumes any price cuts because to get to the consolidated revenue guidance, it seems like we need to assume somewhat lower average sale prices?

您能否評論一下現有的定價環境以及指導是否假設任何降價，因為為了達到綜合收入指導，我們似乎需要假設平均銷售價格略低？

Our average sales price does reflect the level of incentives from our rate buydowns largely.

我們的平均銷售價格確實在很大程度上反映了我們的利率購買的激勵程度。

And so that does have some impact on the average selling price.

因此這確實對平均售價產生了一些影響。

And yes, we've seen slight declines in our net average selling price over the last year, and we do still expect probably a little bit further downward movement in our net average selling price, largely because of the cost of the incentives that we're having to pay in terms of rate buy downs.

是的，去年我們的淨平均售價略有下降，而且我們仍然預計我們的淨平均售價可能會進一步下降，這主要是因為我們的激勵成本必須以降價的方式付出代價。

With the rates -- mortgage rates prevailing in the market being higher at the end of the quarter, we expect those costs to be higher in Q2, which will have an impact on ASP.

由於市場上普遍的抵押貸款利率在本季末較高，我們預計第二季這些成本將會較高，這將對平均售價產生影響。

So what's a reasonable range for ASP to assume?

那麼 ASP 的合理假設範圍是多少呢？

Would it be around 370,000?

大概是37萬左右吧？

Yeah, we're not guiding to that specifically.

是的，我們並沒有具體指導這一點。

But we've seen modest generally sequentially 1% or 2% change.

但我們看到的變化通常是 1% 或 2%。

Really not expecting much more than that.

真的沒有期待更多。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

There were no other questions in queue at this time.

此時隊列中沒有其他問題。

I will now turn the call back to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基 (Paul Romanowski)，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Paul.

謝謝你，保羅。

We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our second quarter results in April.

我們感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，並期待再次與您交談，分享我們四月份的第二季業績。

Congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family on producing a solid first quarter.

恭喜整個 D.R.霍頓家族第一季表現出色。

We are honored to represent you on this call and greatly appreciate all that you do.

我們很榮幸能代表您參加這次電話會議，並非常感謝您所做的一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。