霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加美國建築商D.R. Horton的2025年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

現在我將把電話轉給 D.R. Horton 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。

Thank you, Paul, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2025 financial results. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

謝謝保羅，早安。歡迎參加我們的電話會議，討論我們第四季和2025財年的財務表現。在開始之前，今天的電話會議包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法》定義的前瞻性聲明。儘管D.R. Horton認為任何此類陳述均基於合理的假設，但無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. Horton 在本次電話會議召開之日掌握的信息，D.R. Horton 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關可能導致業績發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參閱 D.R. Horton 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 表格年度報告及其最新 10-Q 表格季度報告。

This morning's earnings release and supplemental data presentation can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-K in about three weeks. Please note that we are now posting our supplementary data presentation at the time of our earnings release. After this call, we will also post our updated investor presentation for your reference.

今天早上的收益報告和補充資料簡報可在我們的網站 investor.drhorton.com 上查閱，我們計劃在大約三週後提交 10-K 報表。請注意，我們將在收益報告發布的同時發布補充數據簡報。電話會議結束後，我們也會發布更新的投資人演示文稿，供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to Paul Romanowski, our President and CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Paul Romanowski。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bill Wheat, our Chief Financial Officer. This year, the D.R. Horton team had the privilege of providing homeownership to nearly 85,000 individuals and families, including approximately 43,000 first-time homebuyers. In total, our homebuilding and rental operations provided more than 91,200 households a place to call home during fiscal 2025.

謝謝傑西卡，早安。我很高興我們的營運長麥克·莫瑞和財務長比爾·惠特也出席了這次電話會議。今年，D.R. Horton 團隊有幸為近 85,000 名個人和家庭提供了住房，其中包括約 43,000 名首次購房者。總體而言，在 2025 財年，我們的房屋建造和租賃業務為超過 91,200 個家庭提供了安居之所。

We work every day to use our industry-leading platform, unmatched scale, efficient operations and experienced employees to bring affordable homeownership opportunities to more Americans. New home demand remains impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment.

我們每天都致力於利用我們行業領先的平台、無與倫比的規模、高效的營運和經驗豐富的員工，為更多美國人帶來負擔得起的住房機會。新房需求仍然受到負擔能力限制和謹慎的消費者情緒的影響。

Our teams continued to respond with discipline during the fourth quarter, driving a 5% increase in net sales orders while carefully balancing pace, price and incentives to meet demand. The D.R. Horton team produced solid fourth quarter results to finish the year, highlighted by consolidated pretax income of $1.2 billion on revenues of $9.7 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 12.4%.

我們的團隊在第四季持續嚴謹應對，推動淨銷售訂單成長5%，同時謹慎平衡節奏、價格和激勵措施，以滿足需求。 D.R. Horton團隊在第四季度取得了穩健的業績，為全年畫上了圓滿的句號，其中，合併稅前利潤達12億美元，營收達97億美元，稅前利潤率達12.4%。

For the year, our consolidated pretax income was $4.7 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 13.8%. Our homebuilding pretax return on inventory for the year was 20.1%. Return on equity was 14.6% and return on assets was 10%. Over the last 10 years, D.R. Horton has delivered a compounded annual shareholder return of more than 20% compared to the S&P 500's compounded annual return of 13.3%.

全年我們的合併稅前收入為47億美元，稅前利潤率為13.8%。全年房屋建築業務的稅前庫存報酬率為20.1%。股本報酬率為14.6%，資產報酬率為10%。過去10年，D.R. Horton的股東複合年回報率超過20%，而標準普爾500指數的複合年回報率為13.3%。

Also, our return on assets ranks in the top 20% of all S&P 500 companies for the past three-, five- and 10-year periods, demonstrating that our disciplined, returns-focused operating model produces sustainable results and positions us well for continued value creation. We remain focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to our shareholders.

此外，我們的資產報酬率在過去三年、五年和十年均位列標普500指數公司前20%，這表明我們嚴謹、注重回報的營運模式能夠帶來可持續的業績，並為我們持續創造價值奠定了良好的基礎。我們將繼續專注於資本效率，以產生強勁的營運現金流，並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

In fiscal 2025, we generated $3.4 billion of cash from operations after making homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaling $8.5 billion. We leveraged our strong cash flow and financial position to return $4.8 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. Over the past five years, we've generated $11 billion of operating cash flow and returned all of it to shareholders.

2025財年，我們在地塊、土地和開發案上進行了總計85億美元的房屋建設投資，最終營運現金流達到34億美元。我們憑藉強勁的現金流和財務狀況，透過回購和股利向股東返還了48億美元。過去五年，我們創造了110億美元的營運現金流，並將全部回饋給股東。

Over the same time frame, we grew consolidated revenues at an 11% compound annual rate, reflecting consistent, efficient execution and disciplined balanced capital allocation. We strive to offer our customers an attractive value proposition by providing quality homes at affordable price points. We will continue to tailor our product offerings, sales incentives and number of homes in inventory based on demand in each of our markets to maximize returns. Mike?

同期，我們的合併收入複合年增長率達到 11%，這反映了我們持續且有效率的執行力和嚴謹均衡的資本配置。我們致力於以實惠的價格提供優質的住宅，為客戶提供極具吸引力的價值主張。我們將繼續根據每個市場的需求，調整產品供應、銷售獎勵措施和庫存房屋數量，以實現收益最大化。麥克？

Net income for the quarter was $905.3 million or $3.04 per diluted share on consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion. For the year, net income was $3.6 billion or $11.57 per diluted share on revenues of $34.3 billion. Our fourth quarter home sales revenues were $8.5 billion on 23,368 homes closed.

本季淨利為9.053億美元，即每股攤薄收益3.04美元，合併營收為97億美元。全年淨利為36億美元，即每股攤薄收益11.57美元，合併營收為343億美元。第四季房屋銷售收入為85億美元，成交房屋23,368套。

Our average closing sales price for the quarter of $365,600 is down 1% sequentially, down 3% year-over-year and is down 9% from our peak sales price of more than $400,000 in 2022. Our average sales price is lower than the average sales price of new homes in the United States by $140,000 or almost 30%. Additionally, the median sales price of our homes is $65,000 lower than the median price of an existing home. Bill?

本季度，我們的平均成交價為 365,600 美元，環比下降 1%，年減 3%，較 2022 年超過 40 萬美元的峰值價格下降 9%。我們的平均售價比美國新房的平均售價低 14 萬美元，降幅接近 30%。此外，我們房屋的中位數售價比現有房屋的中位數售價低 65,000 美元。比爾？

Our net sales orders in the fourth quarter increased 5% from the prior year quarter to 20,078 homes and order value increased 3% to $7.3 billion. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 20%, up from 17% sequentially and down from 21% in the prior year quarter. Our cancellation rate is in line with our historical average.

第四季度，我們的淨銷售訂單較去年同期成長5%，達到20,078套房屋，訂單金額成長3%，達到73億美元。本季的訂單取消率為20%，高於上一季的17%，低於去年同期的21%。我們的訂單取消率與歷史平均值持平。

Our average number of active selling communities was up 1% sequentially and up 13% from the prior year. The average price of net sales orders in the fourth quarter was $364,900, which was flat sequentially and down 3% from the prior year quarter. Jessica?

我們的平均活躍銷售社群數量較去年同期成長1%，較去年同期成長13%。第四季淨銷售訂單平均價格為36.49萬美元，環比持平，年減3%。傑西卡？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the fourth quarter was 20%, down 180 basis points sequentially from the June quarter. 110 basis points of the decrease in our gross margin from June to September was due to higher incentive costs on homes closed during the quarter and 60 basis points of the decrease was from higher-than-normal litigation costs.

我們第四季房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 20%，較六月季度較上季下降 180 個基點。六月至九月毛利率下降的 110 個基點是由於本季成交房屋的激勵成本較高，而 60 個基點的下降是由於訴訟成本高於正常水平。

On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were down roughly 1% sequentially, while stick and brick costs per square foot were flat and lot costs increased 3%. For the first quarter, we expect our home sales gross margin to be flat to slightly up from the fourth quarter. We anticipate our incentive levels to remain elevated in fiscal 2026 with both incentive levels and home sales gross margin for the full year dependent on the strength of demand during the spring selling season, changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions. Bill?

以每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入較上季下降約1%，而每平方英尺木磚成本持平，地塊成本上漲3%。我們預計第一季房屋銷售毛利率將與第四季持平或略有上升。我們預計2026財年的激勵水平將保持在較高水平，全年的激勵水平和房屋銷售毛利率都取決於春季銷售旺季的需求強度、抵押貸款利率的變化以及其他市場狀況。比爾？

Our fourth quarter homebuilding SG&A expenses were flat with the prior year quarter, and homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.9%. For the year, homebuilding SG&A was 8.3% of revenues. Our annual SG&A expenses increased 3%, primarily due to the expansion of our platform, including a 13% increase in our average community count.

我們第四季的房屋建築銷售、一般及行政管理費用與去年同期持平，房屋建築銷售、一般及行政管理費用佔收入的7.9%。全年房屋建築銷售、一般及行政管理費用佔收入的8.3%。我們的年度銷售、一般及行政管理費用增加了3%，主要原因是我們平台的擴展，包括平均社區數量增加了13%。

The investments we have made in our team and platform position us to continue producing strong returns, cash flow and market share gains, and we remain focused on managing our SG&A costs efficiently across our operations. Paul?

我們對團隊和平台的投資使我們能夠繼續產生強勁的回報、現金流量和市場份額成長，我們仍然專注於在整個營運過程中有效管理銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。保羅？

We started 14,600 homes in the September quarter and ended the year with 29,600 homes in inventory, down 21% from a year ago. 19,600 of our total homes at September 30 were unsold. 9,300 of our unsold homes at year-end were completed, including 800 that had been completed for greater than six months.

我們在 9 月季度開工了 14,600 套房屋，年底庫存房屋數量為 29,600 套，比去年同期下降了 21%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們的總房屋中有 19,600 套未售出。年底，我們的未售出房屋中有 9,300 套已經完工，其中 800 套已完工超過六個月。

For homes we closed in the fourth quarter, our median cycle time measured from home start to home close decreased by a week from the third quarter and two weeks from a year ago. Our improved cycle times enable us to hold fewer homes in inventory and turn our housing inventory more efficiently.

就我們第四季成交的房屋而言，從開工到成交的中位數週期比第三季縮短了一周，比去年同期縮短了兩週。縮短的週期使我們減少了庫存房屋數量，並提高了房屋庫存週轉效率。

We expect our sales pace will increase in the first half of our fiscal year in preparation for the spring selling season, and we will continue to manage our homes and inventory and starts pace based on market conditions. Mike?

我們預計，為了迎接春季銷售旺季，我們財政年度上半年的銷售速度將會加快，我們將繼續根據市場狀況管理我們的房屋和庫存並加快開工速度。麥克？

Our homebuilding lot position at year-end consisted of approximately 592,000 lots, of which 25% were owned and 75% were controlled through purchase contracts. 78,000 or roughly half of our owned lots are finished and the majority of our option lots will be finished when we purchase them over the next several years. We are actively managing our investments in lots, land and development based on current market conditions. We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to allow us to build more homes on lots developed by others.

截至年底，我們的住宅建築地塊數量約為 592,000 個，其中 25％ 為自有地塊，75％ 透過購買合約進行控制。我們擁有的土地中有 78,000 個（約佔一半）已經完工，而我們選擇的大部分地塊將在未來幾年內購買時完工。我們根據目前的市場狀況積極管理對地塊、土地和開發的投資。我們仍然專注於與全國各地的土地開發商建立關係，以便我們能夠在其他人開發的土地上建造更多的房屋。

Of the homes we closed during the quarter, 65% were on a lot developed by either Forestar or a third party, up from 64% in the prior year quarter. Our fourth quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $2 billion, of which $1.3 billion was for finished lots, $540 million was for land development and $120 million was for land acquisition. For the year, our homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $8.5 billion. Paul?

我們在本季成交的房屋中，65% 位於由 Forestar 或第三方開發的土地上，高於去年同期的 64%。我們第四季在地塊、土地和開發方面的房屋建築投資總額為 20 億美元，其中 13 億美元用於竣工地塊，5.4 億美元用於土地開發，1.2 億美元用於土地收購。今年，我們在地塊、土地和開發方面的房屋建設投資總額達到 85 億美元。保羅？

In the fourth quarter, our rental operations generated $81 million of pretax income on $805 million of revenues. From the sale of 1,565 single-family rental homes and 1,815 multifamily rental units. For the full year, our rental operations generated $170 million of pretax income on $1.6 billion of revenues from the sale of 3,460 single-family rental homes and 2,947 multifamily rental units.

第四季度，我們的租賃業務在 8.05 億美元的營收中創造了 8,100 萬美元的稅前收入。出售了 1,565 套單戶出租住宅和 1,815 套多戶出租單位。全年來看，我們的租賃業務透過銷售 3,460 套單戶租賃住宅和 2,947 套多戶租賃單元，創造了 1.7 億美元的稅前收入，總收入為 16 億美元。

Our rental property inventory at September 30 was $2.7 billion, down 7% from a year ago and consisted of $378 million of single-family rental properties and $2.3 billion of multifamily rental properties. We remain focused on improving the capital efficiency and returns of our rental operations. Jessica?

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的租賃物業庫存為 27 億美元，比去年同期下降 7%，其中包括 3.78 億美元的單戶租賃物業和 23 億美元的多戶租賃物業。我們仍致力於提高租賃業務的資本效率和回報。傑西卡？

Forestar is our majority-owned residential lot development company, and our strategic relationship is a vital component of our returns-focused business model. Forestar reported revenues for the fourth quarter of $671 million on 4,891 lots sold with pretax income of $113 million. For the full year, Forestar delivered 14,240 lots, generating $1.7 billion of revenues and $219 million of pretax income.

Forestar 是我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司，我們的策略關係是我們以回報為中心的商業模式的重要組成部分。Forestar 報告稱，第四季共售出 4,891 塊地皮，收入為 6.71 億美元，稅前收入為 1.13 億美元。全年，Forestar 交付了 14,240 個地塊，創造了 17 億美元的收入和 2.19 億美元的稅前收入。

62% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton and $470 million of our finished lots purchased in the fourth quarter were from Forestar. Forestar's strong, separately capitalized balance sheet, substantial operating platform and lot supply position them well to provide essential finished lots to the homebuilding industry and aggregate significant market share over the next several years. Mike?

Forestar 擁有的 62% 土地都與 D.R. Horton 簽訂了合約或享有優先購買權，第四季度我們從 Forestar 購買了價值 4.7 億美元的成品土地。Forestar 擁有強大的、獨立資本化的資產負債表、龐大的營運平台和地塊供應，這使其能夠為住宅建築業提供必要的成品地塊，並在未來幾年內積累相當大的市場份額。麥克風？

Financial services earned $76 million of pretax income in the fourth quarter on $218 million of revenues with a pretax profit margin of 34.7%. For the year, Financial Services earned $279 million of pretax income on $841 million of revenues with a pretax profit margin of 33.1%. As we now post the supplemental data presentation to our investor website prior to the call, we will no longer review detailed mortgage metrics during our prepared remarks. Bill?

金融服務第四季營收為 2.18 億美元，稅前收入為 7,600 萬美元，稅前利潤率為 34.7%。全年金融服務業務總收入 8.41 億美元，稅前利潤 2.79 億美元，稅前利潤率為 33.1%。由於我們現在在電話會議之前將補充資料介紹發佈到我們的投資者網站上，因此我們將不再在準備好的發言中審查詳細的抵押貸款指標。帳單？

Our capital allocation strategy is disciplined and balanced to support an expanded operating platform that produces attractive returns and substantial operating cash flows. We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and healthy liquidity, which provides us with significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities.

我們的資本配置策略嚴謹且均衡，以支援擴大的營運平台，產生可觀的回報和可觀的營運現金流。我們的資產負債表強勁，槓桿率低，流動性健康，這為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性，以適應不斷變化的市場條件和機會。

During fiscal 2025, we generated $3.4 billion of operating cash flow, representing 10% of our total revenues and 95% of our net income. During the fourth quarter, we repurchased 4.6 million shares of common stock for $689 million. For the full year, we repurchased 30.7 million shares for $4.3 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 9% from the prior year end. We also paid cash dividends of $118 million during the quarter and $495 million during fiscal 2025.

在 2025 財年，我們產生了 34 億美元的營運現金流，占我們總收入的 10% 和淨收入的 95%。第四季度，我們以 6.89 億美元回購了 460 萬股普通股。全年我們回購了 3,070 萬股，價值 43 億美元，這使得我們的流通股數量比上年末減少了 9%。我們還在本季支付了 1.18 億美元的現金股息，並在 2025 財年支付了 4.95 億美元的現金股息。

Our fiscal year-end stockholders' equity was $24.2 billion, down 4% from a year ago. However, our book value per share was up 5% from a year ago to $82.15. At September 30, we had $6.6 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $3 billion of cash and $3.6 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities. We repaid $500 million of our 2.6% senior notes in September, and debt at the end of the quarter totaled $6 billion. We have no senior note maturities in fiscal 2026.

我們的財政年度末股東權益為 242 億美元，比去年同期下降 4%。然而，我們的每股帳面價值較上年同期成長了5%，達到82.15美元。截至9月30日，我們的合併流動資金總額為66億美元，其中包括30億美元現金和36億美元的可用信貸額度。我們在 9 月償還了 5 億美元的 2.6% 優先票據，本季末的債務總額達到 60 億美元。我們在 2026 財政年度沒有優先票據到期。

Our consolidated leverage at fiscal year-end was 19.8%, and we plan to maintain our leverage around 20% over the long term. Based on our strong financial position and cash flow, our Board declared a new quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, a 13% annualized increase compared to the prior year, making fiscal 2026 our 12th consecutive year of dividend growth. Jessica?

我們財政年度結束時的綜合槓桿率為19.8%，我們計劃長期將槓桿率維持在20%左右。基於我們強勁的財務狀況和現金流，董事會宣布新的季度股息為每股 0.45 美元，與前一年相比年化增長 13%，使 2026 財年成為我們連續第 12 年實現股息增長。傑西卡？

Looking forward to fiscal 2026, we expect new home demand to reflect ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment. As outlined in our press release this morning, for the full year of fiscal 2026, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 billion to $35 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 homes.

展望 2026 財年，我們預期新房需求將反映持續的負擔能力限制和謹慎的消費者情緒。正如我們今天上午的新聞稿中所述，對於 2026 財年全年，我們目前預計綜合收入約為 335 億美元至 350 億美元，我們的房屋建築業務完成的房屋數量將在 86,000 至 88,000 套之間。

We forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2026 of approximately 24.5%. We expect to generate at least $3 billion of cash flow from operations in fiscal 2026. We currently plan to purchase approximately $2.5 billion of our common stock during fiscal 2026, in addition to paying dividends of around $500 million.

我們預測 2026 財年的所得稅率約為 24.5%。我們預計 2026 財年的營運現金流將至少達到 30 億美元。我們目前計劃在 2026 財年購買約 25 億美元的普通股，此外還支付約 5 億美元的股息。

For our first fiscal quarter ending December 31, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues in the range of $6.3 billion to $6.8 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 17,100 to 17,600 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin for the first quarter to be in the range of 20% to 20.5% and our consolidated pretax profit margin to be in the range of 11.3% to 11.8%. Finally, we expect our income tax rate for the quarter to be approximately 24.5%. Paul?

截至 12 月 31 日的第一財季，我們目前預計綜合收入將在 63 億美元至 68 億美元之間，房屋建築業務完工數量將在 17,100 套至 17,600 套之間。我們預計第一季房屋銷售毛利率在 20% 至 20.5% 之間，綜合稅前利潤率在 11.3% 至 11.8% 之間。最後，我們預計本季的所得稅率約為 24.5%。保羅？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and focus on delivering quality homes at affordable price points. All of these are key components of our operating platform that support our ability to aggregate market share, generate substantial operating cash flows and return capital to investors.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理覆蓋範圍以及專注於以實惠的價格提供優質住宅。所有這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分，支持我們聚集市場份額、產生大量營運現金流並向投資者返還資本的能力。

We recognize the current volatility and uncertainty in the economy, and we will continue to adjust to market conditions in a disciplined manner to enhance the long-term value of our company. Looking ahead, we have a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term.

我們認識到當前經濟的波動性和不確定性，我們將繼續以嚴謹的方式適應市場條件，以提升公司的長期價值。展望未來，我們對中長期房地產市場持樂觀態度。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work. Let's continue working to improve our operations and provide homeownership opportunities to more individuals and families during 2026. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

感謝 D.R. Horton 全體員工、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人的持續努力和辛勤工作。讓我們繼續努力改善運營，並在 2026 年為更多個人和家庭提供購房機會。我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is when we think about the walk from the 20% gross margin in the fourth quarter to the 20% to 20.5% in the first quarter. I mean how do we sort of think about incentives, land, labor, material costs? And is the warranty litigation costs expected to remain a 60 basis points headwind? Or how should we sort of think about that piece?

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是我們考慮從第四季的 20% 毛利率到第一季的 20% 至 20.5% 的變化。我的意思是我們如何看待激勵、土地、勞動、材料成本？保固訴訟成本預計是否仍將帶來 60 個基點的逆風？或者我們該如何看待這個作品？

Thanks, John. The 60 basis points unusual impact from litigation this quarter is not expected to persist into Q1. Our baseline would be that we have a more normal impact from warranty litigation going forward. And so if you take our 20.0% reported margin this quarter, pro forma for the litigation, we would be 20.6% this quarter. And so our guide of 20% to 20.5% would be down slightly from Q4 to Q1 gross margin.

謝謝，約翰。本季訴訟造成的 60 個基點的異常影響預計不會持續到第一季。我們的基準是，未來保固訴訟對我們的影響將更加正常。因此，如果以我們本季報告的 20.0% 的利潤率計算，考慮到訴訟因素，本季的利潤率將是 20.6%。因此，我們預計 20% 至 20.5% 的毛利率將比第四季略微下降至第一季的毛利率。

And that just reflects the environment we're in and the level of incentives that we're seeing and our exit gross margin at the end of the quarter was a bit lower than we anticipated coming into the quarter. And so that's what was reflected in the Q1 guide.

這恰恰反映了我們所處的環境和我們所看到的激勵水平，我們在本季末的退出毛利率略低於我們預期的水平。這就是 Q1 指南所反映的內容。

Makes sense. I mean it's also the slowest quarter of the calendar year. So that would make sense. But okay, if we think about the starts pace in the quarter, it seems like it was down fairly meaningfully. I mean, rough math, maybe 30% per community. I guess how quickly can you ramp this to meet demand if it exceeds your expectations, even to get to that sort of 87,000 deliveries at the midpoint?

有道理。我的意思是這也是一年中發展最慢的一個季度。所以這是有道理的。但是，如果我們考慮本季的開工速度，似乎下降幅度相當大。我的意思是，粗略計算一下，每個社區大概是 30%。我想，如果超出您的預期，您能多快提高產量來滿足需求，甚至達到中期 87,000 份的交付量？

John, our starts were lower certainly in the quarter, and that was intentional as we look to get our inventory in line with where it is also in response to our continued improvement in our cycle times. I feel like we don't need to carry as much inventory and also an opportunity for us in a slower starts environment to go into the market with our vendors and try and find reduced stick and brick as we move into the spring season.

約翰，本季我們的開工率肯定較低，這是有意為之，因為我們希望我們的庫存與現狀保持一致，這也響應了我們週期時間的持續改善。我覺得我們不需要攜帶那麼多庫存，而且在起步較慢的環境中，我們也有機會與我們的供應商一起進入市場，並在進入春季時嘗試找到價格降低的木條和磚塊。

And we're going to need to increase our starts as we go through the quarter and into the spring but feel very good about our ability from a labor base and from our positioning of our communities and our lot supply to respond to the market as it comes at us.

在整個季度和春季，我們需要增加開工量，但我們對我們的勞動力基礎、社區定位和地塊供應能力感到非常滿意，能夠應對市場變化。

Yeah, makes a lot of sense. Okay, thank you guys.

是的，很有道理。好的，謝謝大家。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks a lot guys. I appreciate all the color as always. I guess my -- looking at your guide on 1Q, the gross margin, I think you've explained it pretty well here. But the consolidated pretax still seemed a little lighter for us.

是的，非常感謝大家。我一如既往地欣賞所有的色彩。我想——看看您關於第一季毛利率的指南，我認為您在這裡已經解釋得很清楚了。但對我們來說，合併後的稅前利潤似乎仍比較低。

And I was curious as to whether or not your outlook in 1Q is anticipating maybe just some seasonal lightness or something in profitability from either rental or Forestar, financial services? Or is there something else maybe below the homebuilding gross margin line that you might want to call out?

我很好奇，您對第一季的展望是否只是預測租賃或 Forestar 金融服務會出現一些季節性的疲軟或獲利？或者，在房屋建築毛利率線以下，是否有其他因素值得您指出？

Yes. We would expect rental to be a little bit softer quarter. We delivered a lot this year. And so rental is lining up to be back end or back half of the year, heavier again for us this year. And so that certainly would have an impact on our consolidated op margin. And then to your point, we'll just have less leverage on SG&A from the lower closings volume on the homebuilding side.

是的。我們預計本季租金會略有下降。今年我們完成了很多事情。因此，今年的租金對我們來說將再次變得更加沉重。這肯定會對我們的合併營業利潤率產生影響。然後回到你的觀點，由於房屋建築的成交量較低，我們在銷售、一般和行政費用方面的槓桿作用就會降低。

Got you. That's very helpful. I appreciate that. Second question relates to your free cash flow guide, which was healthy. You had talked about, I think, in the past, being able to achieve free cash conversion, I think, about 80% to 100%. I just want to make sure that I remember that correctly. Is that kind of in line with what you are looking for still on a go-forward basis?

明白了。這非常有幫助。我很感激。第二個問題與您的自由現金流指南有關，該指南是健康的。我認為，您過去曾談到能夠實現自由現金轉換，大約是 80% 到 100%。我只是想確保我記得正確。這是否符合您目前所追求的目標？

Yes. We expect to be more consistent in our cash flow conversion going forward. This year, cash flow as a percentage of revenues was between 10% and 11% overall, and we expect to be in that range. The guide is roughly in that range as well.

是的。我們預期未來的現金流轉換會更加一致。今年，現金流佔收入的總體比例在 10% 到 11% 之間，我們預計將保持在這個範圍內。該指南也大致處於該範圍內。

Okay. Excellent. Thank you so much.

好的。出色的。太感謝了。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Awesome, thanks so much. A few quick follow-ups on the gross margin. I just want to drill down a little bit deeper on that sequential step-up in warranty expense, just to make sure I fully understand kind of some of the puts and takes there. Why you expect it to normalize into the first quarter? And then I'm sorry if I missed, but could you also just remind us what's embedded in Q1 on lot costs and stick and brick.

太棒了，非常感謝。關於毛利率的一些快速跟進。我只是想更深入地了解保固費用的連續增加，以確保我完全理解其中的一些優點和缺點。為什麼您預計它會在第一季恢復正常？如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但你能否也提醒我們 Q1 中關於地塊成本和木棍和磚塊的內容。

Sure. On the litigation, we had several large settlements that settled this quarter, nothing outside of the ordinary course of business, but they were larger than normal just in terms of size. And that has an impact on some of the factors that we use in our litigation reserve model. So we had to increase a few of those.

當然。在訴訟方面，本季度我們達成了幾項大額和解，這些和解與正常業務無關，但就規模而言，比正常情況更大。這對我們在訴訟儲備模型中使用的一些因素產生了影響。因此我們必須增加其中的一些。

And so that drove the change in the quarter. Those are elements we don't expect to repeat going into the going into the next quarter. And then as we look at margin going forward, our base expectation is we do expect our lot costs and our home closings to continue to increase incrementally. And we're certainly going to be striving to offset that as best we can with stick and brick savings as we move into the year.

這推動了本季的變化。我們預計這些因素在下個季度不會再次出現。然後，當我們展望未來的利潤時，我們的基本預期是，我們確實預計我們的地塊成本和房屋成交量將繼續逐步增加。隨著新年的到來，我們肯定會盡最大努力透過節省木材和磚塊來抵消這一影響。

That helps. And maybe drilling down a bit more detail on the incentive line item. So it does look like incentives stepped up sequentially. Can you just break out the difference between step-up in price discounting versus rate buydowns?

這有幫助。也許可以對激勵項目進行更詳細的了解。因此看起來激勵措施確實在逐步加強。您能否詳細說明價格折扣遞增與利率降低的差異？

And then I know you do buy down to some very below market rates in certain communities/units as low as 3.99%. Just curious whether the proliferation of those significantly below market buydowns stepped up in Q4?

然後我知道你在某些社區/單位的購買價格確實低於市場價格，低至 3.99%。我只是好奇，第四季那些遠低於市場水準的收購行為是否有增加？

Yes, Sam. So as we anticipated on our last call, we did expect to lean in more heavily to the offering of 3.99%. That is something that we've been doing, and we saw the mortgage rate in our backlog come down.

是的，山姆。因此，正如我們在上次電話會議上所預期的那樣，我們確實預計會更傾向於 3.99% 的發行價。這是我們一直在做的事情，我們看到積壓的抵押貸款利率下降了。

It's actually below 5% today coming into this quarter. And we also saw a slight increase in the percentage of buyers sequentially that received a rate buydown overall. So that accounted for about 73% of our total closings in Q4, which was up from 72% sequentially.

進入本季度，這一比例實際上已低於 5%。我們也發現，整體而言，獲得利率下調的買家比例略有增加。因此，這占我們第四季總成交量的 73% 左右，比上一季的 72% 有所上升。

All very helpful. Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

一切都非常有幫助。非常感謝。我會傳達的。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，澤爾曼與合夥人公司。

Hey guys, good morning, thank you for all the details so far and apologies in advance, I got disconnected for a moment. So if I repeat the question, I'm sorry. But first question, just a pretty solid order number, especially considering kind of the start pace way down.

嘿，大家好，感謝您迄今為止提供的所有詳細信息，提前致歉，我剛才斷線了。如果我重複這個問題，我很抱歉。但第一個問題是，訂單數量相當穩定，尤其是考慮到起始速度已經下降。

And just curious if you can kind of talk a little bit about how demand trended through the quarter and whether you feel like that year-over-year order growth is any indication of maybe a little bit of an improvement in demand as rates were coming down? Or was there perhaps a little bit of a shift in incentive strategy? I know incentives were up a bit for the quarter. Just curious if you kind of increased them in the back half of the quarter that might have driven some of that order increase.

我很好奇，您是否可以談談本季的需求趨勢，以及您是否認為訂單年增率是否顯示隨著利率下降，需求有所改善？或者激勵策略是否發生了一些變化？我知道本季的激勵措施有所增加。我只是好奇，您是否在本季後半段增加了訂單量，這可能會推動部分訂單的增加。

I think we did see a decent demand throughout the quarter. It was choppy as rates were a little bit volatile, and that will push people off the couch and back on to the couch. It seems like with the headlines. But we did lean into the incentives pretty hard in the quarter, as we talked about, and we expected to. We did start a fair number of homes in our June quarter, and those homes were going to sell and close in September.

我認為我們確實看到了整個季度的良好需求。由於利率有點不穩定，所以市場波動很大，這會讓人們從沙發上起來又回到沙發上。好像跟標題一樣。但正如我們所討論的和預期的那樣，我們在本季確實非常重視激勵措施。我們確實在六月季度開工建造了相當數量的房屋，這些房屋將於九月出售並成交。

And we have a few more in the backlog that will be closing out as well. But we moderated the starts pace to reflect a sales environment, as Paul says, to rightsize our inventory position and leaning into our production improvements, the ability to compress the cycle time will allow us to deliver homes faster from start sale to delivery at closing.

我們還有一些積壓的工作也即將完成。但正如保羅所說，我們調整了開工速度以反映銷售環境，以調整我們的庫存狀況並依靠我們的生產改進，壓縮週期時間的能力將使我們能夠從開始銷售到交付結束時更快地交付房屋。

And so in today's environment, we'd expect our starts in the first half of the year to be up from our recent starts pace that we've had.

因此，在現今的環境下，我們預計今年上半年的開工率將高於我們最近的開工率。

Got it. Okay. That makes a lot of sense. And then second question, just looking at your closing guide for '26 up slightly year-on-year. Obviously, your homes under construction are way down. It doesn't feel like there's anything today that would point to '26 being an up year from a demand perspective. So I'm just curious how you're thinking about kind of the -- maybe the upside and downside risk to that closing guidance.

知道了。好的。這很有道理。然後是第二個問題，只是看一下 26 年的收盤指南，它與去年同期相比略有上漲。顯然，你們正在建造的房屋數量大大減少。從需求角度來看，今天似乎沒有任何跡象表明 26 年是上漲的一年。所以我只是好奇您是如何看待這種收盤指引的上行和下行風險的。

Obviously, it will be dependent on the spring. But is this more you taking a view of, hey, we've got the communities opening. We want to put homes on the ground and kind of keep the machine running? Or is that actually your expectation that maybe lower rates a little bit, still solid economy that you feel a little bit more positive about the demand outlook heading into this year's spring versus last?

顯然，這將取決於彈簧。但這是否更多地表明了你的看法，嘿，我們已經開放了社區。我們想在地面上建造房屋並保持機器運作嗎？或者實際上您的預期是，利率可能會稍微降低一點，但經濟仍然穩健，因此您對今年春季的需求前景比去年更加樂觀一些？

Alan, I would say that we are absolutely in position to deliver on the units in the guide. When you look at our community count being up 13%, and that's been increasing double digit for some period of time. So we're not assuming increased absorption per flag to achieve this guide. We have the production capacity throughout the industry, we think, to deliver on that.

艾倫，我想說我們完全有能力實現指南中提出的目標。您可以看到我們的社區數量增加了 13%，並且在一段時間內保持兩位數的成長。因此，我們不會假設每個標誌的吸收量都會增加以實現本指南。我們認為，我們擁有整個產業的生產能力來實現這一目標。

And we have what I would characterize as solid traffic in our communities today. There's some uncertainty and consumer confidence certainly is keeping people on the fence. So ultimately, it's going to depend on the spring selling season and the strength of the market. But we believe we're in position to deliver on our guide and feel good about our positioning today. Even with our inventory, total housing inventory at a lower number, that's been purposeful because we believe we have the ability to deliver the units in a timely fashion.

如今，我們的社區交通十分順暢。存在一些不確定性，消費者信心肯定讓人持觀望態度。所以最終，這將取決於春季銷售季節和市場實力。但我們相信我們有能力實現我們的指導方針，並對我們今天的定位感到滿意。即使我們的庫存，總房屋庫存數量較低，這也是有目的的，因為我們相信我們有能力及時交付這些房屋。

Makes sense thanks a lot.

非常有道理，非常感謝。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊（Matthew Bouley）。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. I have, I guess, a similar question to what Alan just asked, but I want to add a little more to it around the gross margin side. And so obviously, guiding to growth in a housing market that is not growing at the moment, and I hear you loud and clear on the community growth supporting that. But maybe in the context that the gross margins came in a little bit below the guide, even excluding the unusual litigation.

大家早安。感謝您回答這些問題。我想，我有一個與艾倫剛才問的問題類似的問題，但我想在毛利率方面補充一點。因此，顯然，這會引導目前尚未成長的房地產市場的成長，而且我清楚地聽到了你們關於社區成長支持這一點的聲音。但也許在毛利率略低於預期的情況下，即使排除不尋常的訴訟。

So I'm trying to understand if there's any signal there, kind of any conceptual change to that balance between growth and gross margin? And perhaps are you actually willing to maybe sacrifice a little bit of gross margin here in order to drive those volumes higher this year?

所以我想了解這其中是否存在任何訊號，成長和毛利率之間的平衡是否存在任何概念上的變化？也許您實際上願意犧牲一點毛利率來提高今年的銷量？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think we're continuing to respond to the market that's in front of us on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis at each of our communities. The growth in the community count and the lots that are available to us today in our portfolio that are ready to start homes on is probably unprecedented in the company's history relative to our outlook for the year.

我認為我們將繼續對我們每個社區每天和每週面臨的市場做出反應。相對於我們對今年的展望，我們投資組合中社區數量的增長以及可供我們開工建設的土地數量的增長可能是公司歷史上前所未有的。

So we feel like we have a lot of flexibility to lean into the strength that materializes in the market. And at the same time, we can't -- you cannot continue to run the machine to a zero-profit margin. That makes zero sense whatsoever.

因此，我們覺得我們有很大彈性來依賴市場中出現的力量。同時，我們不能——你不能繼續以零利潤率運行機器。這根本毫無意義。

Yes. Got it. Okay. Understood. And then maybe just zooming in to the lot cost. So I guess it sounded like there was still a little bit of inflation sequentially. I'm just curious that kind of the very front end, whether it's development costs or kind of renegotiating with your land counterparties, et cetera. Is there an outlook to either flattening or eventually improving lot cost? And when may that begin to benefit you guys?

是的。知道了。好的。明白了。然後也許只是放大地段成本。所以我猜這聽起來好像還是有點通貨膨脹。我只是好奇這種前端，無論是開發成本還是與土地交易對手重新談判等等。是否有可能使批量成本趨於平穩或最終得到改善？那什麼時候才能開始帶給你們好處呢？

I think, Matt, given the mix of our overall lot portfolio and different age, I don't think you're going to see much of a shift in that over the next 12 months. We are seeing on the front end from a development cost perspective, some flattening there and some reductions that we expect to take advantage of in new lots that are going on the ground either for us or through our third-party developers.

馬特，我認為，考慮到我們的整體地塊組合和不同年齡，我認為你不會在未來 12 個月內看到太大的變化。從開發成本的角度來看，我們看到前端成本趨於平穩，並且有所降低，我們預計，無論是我們自己還是透過第三方開發商，我們都可以充分利用這些成本。

Not as much movement on the overall land valuation, but we are seeing favorable opportunity to renegotiate on terms and time to control our lot position and the number of lots that we own based on market conditions.

整體土地估價的變動並不大，但我們看到了有利的機會，可以根據市場情況重新協商條款和時間，以控制我們的地塊位置和我們擁有的地塊數量。

And I think an even better opportunity that we look at in '26 is renegotiating our stick and brick costs. Lot costs continue to be sticky, and we're doing everything we can on that front, but we would expect our stick and brick costs to come down as we move throughout the year.

我認為我們在 26 年看到的更好的機會是重新協商我們的木棍和磚塊成本。地塊成本仍然很高，我們正在盡一切努力解決這個問題，但我們預計，隨著全年的推進，木棍和磚塊成本將會下降。

Got it. Thanks guys, good luck.

知道了。謝謝大家，祝你好運。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

Rafe Jadrosich，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask on the second half -- the delivery outlook seems like it's more second half weighted. Can you talk about like the starts pace and community count that you're assuming? How do we think about the cadence of that through the year?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想問一下下半年的情況——交付前景似乎更側重於下半年。您能談談您所假設的起步速度和社區數量嗎？我們如何看待這一年的節奏？

I think overall, our starts pace needs to move up, right? I mean at 14,600 starts this quarter, well below what we need to be doing on a quarterly basis. But again, that's been intentional to get our inventory in the pace that we're looking for and feel good about our capacity and ability to start into the market, but our starts are going to have to keep pace with or exceed our sales pace a little bit as we look at the first and second quarters into this year.

我認為整體而言，我們的起步速度需要加快，對嗎？我的意思是本季的開工量為 14,600 台，遠低於我們每季需要完成的數量。但再次強調，我們有意讓庫存達到我們期望的速度，並對我們的產能和進入市場的能力感到滿意，但展望今年第一季和第二季度，我們的開工率必須跟上或超過我們的銷售速度。

And with respect to community count, we've been seeing double-digit year-over-year increases in community count. We do expect that to moderate at some point more to the mid- to high single digit.

就社區數量而言，我們看到社區數量比去年同期增加了兩位數。我們確實預計這一數字將在某個時候回落至中高個位數。

But right now, as we go into the year, we are up double digits. So that positions us well to not have to plan for higher absorptions in order to achieve our volume and our business plan.

但現在，隨著我們進入新的一年，我們的成長已經達到兩位數。因此，我們無需計劃更高的吸收量即可實現我們的產量和業務計劃。

Good. Thank you. And then just following up on the last question. Can you just tell us what the year-over-year increases on lot cost? And then what you'd expect that to be through 2026?

好的。謝謝。然後繼續回答最後一個問題。您能告訴我們地塊成本較去年同期上漲了多少嗎？那麼，您預計到 2026 年會如何？

Yes. I think we were up 8% on a year-over-year basis on a per square foot for lot costs. And I think as we've said, we do expect that to remain pretty sticky, at least on closings for the next year or so. And so it's probably best case mid-single, but it could continue to be high single as well as it takes a little bit longer for that ultimately to flow through in our closings.

是的。我認為我們每平方英尺的地塊成本比去年同期增長了 8%。我認為，正如我們所說的那樣，我們確實預計這種情況將保持相當穩定，至少在未來一年左右的收盤時是如此。因此，這可能是最好的情況，即中單，但它也可能繼續是高單，因為它最終需要更長的時間才能在我們的收盤中完成。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森（Trevor Allinson），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. First question is on demand in Texas. We've heard a couple of builders call out Texas as being among the weaker markets here, but your South-Central orders were up 11% year-over-year.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題是德州的要求。我們聽到一些建築商稱德克薩斯州是這裡較弱的市場之一，但你們中南部地區的訂單比去年同期增長了 11%。

So can you talk about what you're seeing there? Is the strong order performance, the decision to lean more into volumes? Or you've got really strong community count growth? Did you see a lot of that come through in Texas? Just any commentary on what's driving the good order growth there relative to some weaker commentary from others?

那麼你能談談你在那裡看到了什麼嗎？訂單表現強勁是否代表我們決定更重視銷售？或者您的社區數量成長確實非常強勁？你在德州看到過很多這樣的情況嗎？相對於其他一些較弱的評論，您對推動良好訂單成長的因素有何評論？

Trevor, I would describe Texas like a lot of markets and areas and geographies, and that's choppy. It's kind of market to market. We did lean in, as you saw in our margins, the incentives to drive the absorptions that we were looking for in the fourth quarter.

特雷弗，我認為德州有很多市場、地區和地理位置，而且很不穩定。這是一種市場對市場的模式。正如您在我們的利潤率中看到的那樣，我們確實傾向於採取激勵措施來推動我們在第四季度尋求的吸收。

Still have certainly bright spots throughout the state, but others that we still have an elevated inventory level that we and the industry need to work through in the coming months.

整個州仍然有亮點，但其他方面，我們的庫存水平仍然較高，我們和整個行業需要在未來幾個月內努力解決這個問題。

Okay. Thank you for that. And then second question, you've talked about getting your inventory lower in the quarter. You're also now talking though about increasing your starts pace here. So perhaps that suggests that you feel good about where your inventory is at. What about for the industry more broadly relative to demand? Do you think that the reduced starts pace here recently has brought inventory more in alignment with current demand conditions? Or do you think, especially in some of these weaker markets that there's still room for inventory to move lower here early -- late in 2025 and early in 2026?

好的。謝謝你。第二個問題，您談到了本季降低庫存的問題。現在您也在談論如何提高起跑速度。所以這也許表明您對庫存狀況感到滿意。那麼對於更廣泛的產業而言，需求情況又如何呢？您是否認為最近開工速度的降低使得庫存更符合當前的需求狀況？或者您認為，特別是在一些較弱的市場中，庫存仍有下降的空間——在 2025 年末和 2026 年初？

I do think the reduction in starts has helped to balance inventory market by market. Again, it is market by market as you look at that. Across the board, our slowdown in starts also gives us the opportunity to work on repricing some of our stick and brick costs and the ability for us to sell houses and start houses.

我確實認為開工數量的減少有助於平衡各市場的庫存。再次強調，這是根據各市場的情況來判斷的。整體而言，房屋開工率的放緩也為我們提供了重新定價部分木材和磚塊成本的機會，也讓我們有能力出售房屋和開工建造房屋。

And increase our starts pace is predicated upon the sales environment and the ability to reduce our vertical construction costs so that we can start houses. So I expect to see that the inventory balance helping support a backdrop of increasing starts into our December and March quarters.

提高開工速度取決於銷售環境和降低垂直建築成本的能力，以便我們能夠開工建造房屋。因此，我預計庫存餘額將有助於支持 12 月和 3 月季度開工率的提高。

I think we've had a lot of chatter about builders just being more rational today, right? And so, we are seeing the industry, by and large, adjust their inventory overall, so we don't end up in an oversupply situation in most of our markets.

我想我們已經討論過很多關於建築商今天是否更加理性的話題了，對嗎？因此，我們看到整個產業都在調整庫存，這樣我們的大多數市場就不會出現供過於求的局面。

Thanks for all the color and good luck moving forward.

感謝所有的色彩並祝你未來好運。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. Your repurchase guide, $2.5 billion, I think, is kind of significantly below what you'll probably end up doing in '25 despite cash generation could be somewhat similar year-over-year. Is that just caution early in the year or before the year starts?

早安.我認為，您的回購指引金額為 25 億美元，這明顯低於您在 25 年可能最終實現的金額，儘管現金產生量可能與去年同期有些相似。這只是年初或新年開始前的謹慎嗎？

And then maybe more broadly, can you just talk about potential capital allocation priorities in '26 in terms of step-up in land purchase development or any other thoughts there?

然後也許更廣泛地說，您能否談談 26 年在土地購買開發方面的潛在資本配置優先事項或其他想法？

Yes. We repurchased $4.3 billion in fiscal '25. The guide of $2.5 billion is lower. It's all governed by our cash flow. This year, we have said several times in fiscal '25, we had a unique situation coming into the year. We had a higher-than-normal level of liquidity coming into the year. So we felt like we had some cushion there to utilize it, and we took advantage of when our price was much lower to buy shares with that.

是的。我們在 25 財年回購了 43 億美元。25億美元的指導價較低。這一切都由我們的現金流決定。今年，我們在 25 財年已經多次說過，我們面臨一個獨特的情況。今年我們的流動性水準高於正常水準。因此，我們覺得我們有一些緩衝可以利用，我們利用價格低得多的機會來購買股票。

We were also coming into fiscal '25 below our leverage targets. So we had some room on our balance sheet, and we did increase our leverage a bit and utilize that cash in our share repurchase as well. So we had some unique opportunities in fiscal '25 to lean in a bit, take advantage of the dislocation in our stock price. But going forward and over the long term, consistently, our share repurchases and dividends will be governed by our level of cash flow. And right now, going into the year, every year has potential upside and downside relative to our business plan.

進入 25 財年，我們的槓桿率也低於目標。因此，我們的資產負債表上有一些空間，我們確實稍微提高了槓桿率，並在股票回購中利用了這些現金。因此，我們在 25 財年有一些獨特的機會，可以利用股價的錯位。但從長遠來看，我們的股票回購和股利將始終受到現金流水準的支配。現在，進入新的一年，相對於我們的商業計劃，每年都有潛在的上升和下降空間。

But right now, our baseline is we expect to generate $3 billion of cash flow and essentially distribute it to our shareholders, $2.5 billion of share repurchase, $500 million of dividends. And so that's our baseline going into the year. And then we will adjust as necessary depending on what the market shows us in the spring and ultimately what our cash flow generation is.

但目前，我們的基準是，我們預計將產生 30 億美元的現金流，並將其分配給我們的股東，25 億美元的股票回購，5 億美元的股息。這就是我們今年的基準。然後，我們將根據春季市場的表現以及最終的現金流情況進行必要的調整。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then when I look at your net sales order growth year-over-year by region, it looks like you have relatively strong sales order growth, except in the Southeast. And I'm just wondering if you can give any kind of additional color on the Southeast, if there are MSAs that are stronger or weaker or particular inventory challenges? Or just any kind of color you can give on that region and kind of where you are in terms of visibility into inflection there?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，當我查看您各地區的淨銷售訂單年增長情況時，似乎您的銷售訂單增長相對強勁，東南部除外。我只是想知道您是否可以對東南部地區提供任何額外的信息，是否有更強或更弱的 MSA 或特定的庫存挑戰？或者您能給出該地區的任何顏色以及您對該地區拐點的可見度如何？

Generally, within the Southeast, Florida is a big component of the company, and that's a huge component of the Southeast region we report. There are some markets within Florida that have struggled with some inventory balance issues. Notably, Jacksonville and Southwest Florida have had some excess inventory and demand has been a while coming to absorb that. So that's kind of what you're seeing in the current quarter's results in the Southeast for us.

一般來說，在東南部，佛羅裡達州是該公司的重要組成部分，也是我們報告的東南部地區的重要組成部分。佛羅裡達州的一些市場正面臨庫存平衡問題。值得注意的是，傑克遜維爾和西南佛羅裡達州有一些過剩庫存，需求需要一段時間才能消化這些庫存。這就是您在本季東南部看到的業績。

Okay, that's helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這很有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。

Great, thanks everyone. I appreciate taking my questions. First, I wanted to circle back to the gross margins for a moment, but look at it from a perspective of we've highlighted and discussed the outlook for continued land cost inflation and the hope that, that could be offset by lower labor and material costs.

太好了，謝謝大家。我很高興回答我的問題。首先，我想暫時回到毛利率問題上，但從我們強調和討論過土地成本持續上漲的前景以及希望可以透過降低勞動力和材料成本來抵消這一上漲的角度來看。

I'm trying to get a sense for, theoretically, let's say, if from here on in, so from the 20% to 20.5% gross margin expected in the first quarter, if land costs are going to be up, let's say, mid- to high single digits, what type of reduction would you need in construction costs to offset that so that gross margins would be flattish without any help from better pricing?

我想從理論上理解一下，比如說，從現在開始，毛利率從第一季預計的 20% 上升到 20.5%，如果土地成本上升，比如說，中高個位數，那麼需要減少多少建築成本才能抵消這一影響，這樣毛利率才會持平，而無需更好的定價？

I think absent of any pricing or reduction in incentives or breaks on the cost of our builder forward and financing, I think you need to see that somewhere in the 3% to 5% range. And we'll see how that comes in over the year, but I have certainly seen our vendors interested in the starts pace increasing as are we.

我認為，如果沒有任何定價或減少激勵措施或減免建築商預付和融資成本，我認為你需要看到這個數字在 3% 到 5% 的範圍內。我們將觀察這一年的情況，但我確實看到我們的供應商對開工速度的興趣也在增加，我們也是。

I mean that's good for the industry, and they recognize that and have been at the table with us to help do what we can to replace the homes that we're selling today with a more affordable home. And that's really the ultimate goal is to open up homeownership to more people. So we do see the opportunity to balance the reality of the increased lot cost that we see over the next 12 months.

我的意思是，這對行業來說是件好事，他們認識到了這一點，並一直與我們一起努力，盡我們所能，用更實惠的房屋取代我們現在出售的房屋。而這真正的最終目標是讓更多的人擁有住房。因此，我們確實看到了平衡未來 12 個月內增加的地塊成本的現實的機會。

And -- I appreciate that, Paul. And what was -- what were construction costs on a year-over-year basis for the fourth quarter?

而且──我很感激，保羅。那麼，第四季的建築成本與去年同期相比是多少？

We were down 1% year-over-year and flat sequentially. And for the full year, we were down about 1.5%.

與去年同期相比，我們的銷售額下降了 1%，與上一季持平。全年來看，我們下降了約 1.5%。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I guess, secondly, on some of the regional commentary. I guess we've heard that Texas remains kind of choppy, I believe you said, and Florida, some pain points. I guess I'm interested in if those are the two markets today that you'd consider broadly speaking, the most challenged across your footprint?

好的。這很有幫助。其次，我想談談一些地區性的評論。我想我們已經聽說德克薩斯州的情況仍然有點不穩定，我相信您說過，佛羅裡達州也有一些痛點。我感興趣的是，從廣義上講，您是否認為這兩個市場是您所在地區面臨的最具挑戰性的市場？

Or how does California and Pacific Northwest fit in there? And then if you've seen any change for the better or for the worse, marginally better, marginally worse, where you sit today versus three months ago?

或者加州和太平洋西北地區如何融入其中？那麼，如果您看到任何好轉或惡化的變化，稍微好轉，稍微惡化，那麼與三個月前相比，您今天的情況如何？

I think California has also been a bit of a struggle. I think we're seeing some strength or at least stability, if you will, across the Midwest and into the Mid-Atlantic. I think gauging it today compared to three months ago, I would say similar. And it truly is choppy.

我認為加州也面臨一些困難。我認為，我們看到了中西部和大西洋中部地區的一些力量，或至少是穩定性。我認為，與三個月前相比，今天的衡量結果是相似的。而且它確實很不穩定。

I mean -- and there's a lot of headlines and noise, and we would have expected to see a little bigger bump out of the reduction in mortgage rates that we've seen, and we've seen them come down a little more here recently. And hope that, that turns into more people getting off the fence and into the buy box. But we do see interest in our sales offices, and we do see people out there looking for homeownership.

我的意思是——有很多頭條新聞和噪音，我們原本預計會看到抵押貸款利率出現更大幅度的下降，但我們最近發現利率又下降了一點。並希望這能讓更多的人下定決心購買。但我們確實看到人們對我們的銷售辦事處感興趣，也確實看到人們在尋找房屋所有權。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research Partners.

Ken Zener，海港研究合作夥伴。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

I want to take a step back, if we could, just to -- because your orders are up. It's a big deal, right, in a market that is challenging. But could we start -- first question, 20% gross margin guidance, while it's down sequentially, it's actually kind of in the range, if you take the historical view of the industry, that's pretty normal. So do you think that, in fact, this could be the more normalized rate given how much you've improved your asset efficiency in terms of upwards of two-third of your lots being bought finished, A.

如果可以的話，我想退一步，只是為了——因為你的訂單已經完成了。在充滿挑戰的市場中，這是一件大事。但我們可以開始嗎——第一個問題，20% 的毛利率預期，雖然環比下降，但實際上還是在這個範圍內，如果你從行業歷史的角度來看，這是很正常的。那麼，您是否認為，事實上，考慮到您已經提高了資產效率（您的三分之二以上的地塊都已完工購買），這可能是更正常的利率，A。

And also, can you talk to -- a lot of the homebuilders describe consumer confidence. The way I look at it, we describe it as job growth in Dallas is kind of half what it was historically. Phoenix has been kind of flat the last six months. Vegas has been a bit negative. And I'm asking this because are we actually kind of in a more environment where the consumer -- while interest rates matter and affordability matters, there's just not a lot of job growth. So it's more of a traditional economic slowdown.

另外，您能否談談—許多房屋建築商描述了消費者信心。在我看來，達拉斯的就業成長率大約是歷史水準的一半。菲尼克斯在過去六個月裡一直表現平淡。拉斯維加斯的情況有點消極。我之所以問這個問題，是因為我們實際上是否處於這樣一種環境：消費者——雖然利率和負擔能力很重要，但就業成長卻不多。所以這更像是一次傳統的經濟放緩。

I think that job growth certainly, I mean, absolutely has an impact on new household formations and consumer confidence. And where you see that flatness in those markets, that is going to have an impact on go-forward demand. Do still feel very good about our positioning across our markets and at the affordable price points and the need for housing. But ultimately, yes, Ken, we need to see consistent sustainable job growth to drive growth in the housing market.

我認為就業成長肯定會對新家庭的形成和消費者信心產生影響。當你看到這些市場表現平淡時，這將對未來的需求產生影響。我們對整個市場中的定位、可負擔的價格以及住房需求仍然感到非常滿意。但最終，是的，肯，我們需要看到持續的可持續就業成長來推動房地產市場的成長。

And the 20% question?

那麼 20% 的問題呢？

I think we feel pretty good where our margin profile is based on the disruptions, we've seen in the housing market over the last year or two. And we've adjusted accordingly. And the bottom-line op margin, we're still producing generally better than what our old historical norm would have been.

我認為，我們的利潤狀況相當不錯，這是基於過去一兩年房地產市場的動盪。我們也做出了相對應的調整。就底線營運利潤率而言，我們的生產水準總體上仍高於過去的歷史標準。

Not ready to call a bottom on anything right now, but we do feel good still over the long term about running on average sustainably higher pretax profit margins.

現在還不準備斷言任何事物已經觸底，但從長遠來看，我們仍然對平均稅前利潤率持續走高感到樂觀。

Okay. And then I guess you said incentives went up 120 bps. I know you guys haven't quantified it in the past. I think it would be good if you did. But you said high single digits in the past. Are we in -- at the -- does the 120 bps increase now bring us into low double digits in terms of incentives?

好的。然後我想你會說激勵措施增加了 120 個基點。我知道你們過去沒有量化它。我認為如果你這麼做的話會很好。但你過去說過高個位數。我們是否處於—在—120 個基點的成長是否會讓我們在激勵方面進入低兩位數？

No, it was a 110 basis points sequential increase, and we're still a high single-digit percentage overall.

不，這是連續 110 個基點的成長，而整體而言我們的成長率仍處於較高的個位數百分比。

And no specificity, I take it, correct?

我認為沒有什麼特殊性，對嗎？

No. I mean we give you the gross margin detail that shows kind of our core lot level gross margin and then the things that also impact our gross margin below that, that we've already talked to in terms of the outsized litigation costs. We also did in our supplemental presentation, break out external broker commissions now.

不。我的意思是，我們向您提供的毛利率細節顯示了我們的核心批次級毛利率，以及影響我們毛利率的因素，我們已經就巨額訴訟成本進行了討論。我們還在補充介紹中列出了外部經紀人佣金。

So you'll see of the 110, 10 basis points was related to increased broker commissions, which is to be expected when we're trying to drive incremental sales.

因此，您會看到，在 110 個基點中，有 10 個基點與經紀人佣金的增加有關，當我們試圖推動增量銷售時，這是可以預料的。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Hi everyone, this is Charles Perron in for Susan. Thanks for taking my question. First, I would like to discuss the performance of operations in smaller markets where you have a large market share. You've been successful in those markets in the past few years. Can you talk about the opportunities you're seeing there relative to your larger markets and how this influences your ability to outperform the market next year?

大家好，我是查爾斯‧佩隆 (Charles Perron)，代替蘇珊。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想討論一下你們在擁有較大市場份額的較小市場中的營運表現。過去幾年裡，你們在這些市場取得了成功。您能否談談相對於更大的市場您在那裡看到的機遇，以及這如何影響您明年超越市場的能力？

Yes. I think we have seen when we just kind of look at the beginning expectation or budget for some of those divisions, a higher level of able to achieve their intended absorptions. And when we're in a lower competitive environment and we can react to the market, whether that's up or down and control some of those inventories a little better, we have seen a pretty solid performance in some of those and feel good about our geographic footprint. We've expanded quite a bit into some of those secondary markets over the last couple of years and happy to see our divisions and our teams maturing in those markets.

是的。我認為，當我們僅僅看一下這些部門的初始預期或預算時，我們就能看到更高水準的部門能夠實現其預期的吸收量。當我們處於競爭較低的環境中時，我們可以對市場做出反應，無論是上漲還是下跌，並更好地控制其中一些庫存，我們在其中一些方面看到了相當穩健的表現，並對我們的地理覆蓋範圍感到滿意。在過去幾年裡，我們已經向一些二級市場進行了相當大的擴張，很高興看到我們的部門和團隊在這些市場中日益成熟。

Got you. That's helpful. And second, I want to drill down on the ASP a little bit. Considering the 3% growth in closings and flat revenue guide for next year, this suggests the potential for ASP pressure continuing into fiscal '26. I guess, first, is this a fair assumption? And more broadly, how do you expect the ASP to trend in 2026, should market conditions persist? And how much of that would be driven by like-for-like pricing versus mix relative impact?

明白了。這很有幫助。其次，我想深入研究一下 ASP。考慮到明年收盤量成長 3% 且營收預期持平，這表明平均售價壓力可能會持續到 26 財年。我想，首先，這是一個合理的假設嗎？更廣泛地說，如果市場狀況持續下去，您預計 2026 年 ASP 的趨勢如何？其中有多少是由同類定價與產品組合相對影響所驅動的？

Yes. I mean we continue to try to focus on affordability. That's one of the constraints in the market today. And so our ASP has been trending down caused both by mix in terms of smaller homes and the mix of homes that we're providing as well as the incentive levels that we're providing. So our base assumption is that we will continue to see a net decline in ASP in fiscal 2026 for those same reasons.

是的。我的意思是我們將繼續努力專注於可負擔性。這是當今市場的限制因素之一。因此，我們的 ASP 一直呈下降趨勢，這是由於我們提供的小型住宅和住宅組合以及我們提供的激勵程度所造成的。因此，我們的基本假設是，由於同樣的原因，我們將繼續看到 2026 財年 ASP 的淨下降。

Thanks for your time.

感謝您的時間。

Mike Dahl, RBC.

麥克·達爾，加拿大皇家銀行。

Great, thanks for taking my questions. I had another follow-up on kind of starts and inventory dynamic. You guys did a great job on really significantly reducing inventory in the quarter. Now at the same time, you're acknowledging that you do have to ramp starts pace consistent with how you've guided for the year.

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。我對啟動和庫存動態進行了另一次跟進。你們在本季大幅減少庫存方面做得非常出色。現在，與此同時，您承認您確實必須按照今年的指導方針加快啟動步伐。

So that's still absent market improvement suggests that you are going to ramp specs back up, which I understand is normal seasonally, but I'm trying to get a better handle on what exactly we should be thinking about in terms of your comfort level on ramping specs specifically back up into 1Q given the current market dynamics?

因此，市場仍然沒有改善，這表明您將重新提高規格，我理解這在季節性上是正常的，但我想更好地了解，考慮到當前的市場動態，我們究竟應該考慮什麼，即您對在第一季重新提高規格的舒適度？

I would say our preferred path is to sell the homes earlier in the process and be building more backlog. We are going to need to see an increase in starts, whether those are for specs or sold homes. But we just -- with the speed at which we're building homes and the ability to deliver with predictability of delivery date and rate even on a new start. We just don't need to carry as many total specs and feel comfortable with the spec count that we have, and we'll be managing that to the market as the sales come.

我想說，我們更傾向於在流程早期出售房屋並累積更多庫存。我們需要看到新屋開工數量的增加，無論是規格房還是已售房屋。但我們只是——以我們建造房屋的速度和交付能力來預測交付日期和速度，即使在新開工的時候。我們只是不需要攜帶那麼多的總規格，並且對我們擁有的規格數量感到滿意，並且隨著銷售的到來，我們將其管理到市場上。

Got it. Okay. And then as a follow-up, you did just close on the acquisition of SK Builders in South Carolina. I was wondering if you could comment a little bit more on how much contribution you expect from that? And then taking a step back, you've done a number of these kind of tuck-ins to help bolster market share at a local level and kind of firm up the growth. Maybe give us a broader view on how you're seeing the kind of the M&A and bolt-on and for yourselves?

知道了。好的。另外，作為後續事宜，您剛剛完成了對南卡羅來納州 SK Builders 的收購。我想知道您是否可以進一步評論一下您期望由此帶來多大的貢獻？然後退一步來說，你已經做了許多這樣的整合，以幫助鞏固當地的市場份額並鞏固成長。也許您可以從更廣泛的角度向我們介紹一下您自己是如何看待併購和附加投資的？

I think the SK acquisition helps our positioning in the Greenville, South Carolina market quite a bit. We picked up about 150 houses in inventory, another 400 lots on the ground today and then sales orders on those homes in construction, about two-third of them are sold. And then we got control of another 1,300 lots in good communities throughout the Greenville market that will help further leverage our operating platform in Greenville.

我認為 SK 的收購對我們在南卡羅來納州格林維爾市場的定位有很大幫助。我們今天收到了大約 150 棟庫存房屋和 400 塊土地，以及這些在建房屋的銷售訂單，其中約三分之二已經售出。然後，我們控制了格林維爾市場各個優質社區的另外 1,300 個地塊，這將有助於進一步利用我們在格林維爾的營運平台。

And with what happened there, we continue to look at those tuck-in opportunities to accelerate the pace of delivery of homes into those markets across the country. We tend to operate with our capital structure, cost structure at a higher pace than some of the smaller builders do with some of the limitations they have on capital and cost.

鑑於那裡發生的事情，我們將繼續尋找這些機會，以加快向全國市場交付房屋的速度。我們傾向於以比一些小型建築商更高的速度運作我們的資本結構和成本結構，而這些建築商在資本和成本方面受到一些限制。

So it's very accretive to our platform, and we look to see people that are really good at the small local homebuilding are also generally very good at the local entitlement and some development operations and kind of decoupling their operations from entitlement development from homebuilding and splitting it between us and them works out really well for a long-term win-win for both the seller and the D.R. Horton.

因此，它對我們的平台非常有益，我們希望看到那些真正擅長小型本地住宅建設的人通常也非常擅長本地授權和一些開發業務，並且將他們的業務與住宅建設的授權開髮脫鉤並將其分攤給我們和他們之間，這對於賣方和 D.R. Horton 的長期雙贏非常有利。

And if anyone is not familiar, that was an October transaction that didn't happen during the quarter. So it was subsequent to year-end.

如果有人不熟悉的話，那是十月份的一筆交易，但本季並沒有發生。這是年底之後的事了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

傑德·拉赫馬尼（Jade Rahmani），KBW。

Thank you very much. I wanted to ask you about your view on interest rates and if you think a step down in mortgage rate will translate into further mortgage buydowns. In other words, if you will pass on that improvement to buyers in the new home market to maintain relative standing with the existing market? Or if you think those lower rates will actually alleviate some of the incentive pressure?

非常感謝。我想問您對利率的看法，以及您是否認為抵押貸款利率的下降將轉化為進一步的抵押貸款買斷。換句話說，您是否會將這種改善傳遞給新房市場的買家，以保持與現有市場的相對地位？或者您認為較低的利率實際上會減輕一些激勵壓力？

Jade, we're still solving for a monthly payment across most of our communities. And so the ability to offer a lower rate than market and to solve for a monthly payment that it allows people to move forward with the purchase is what we will continue to do. In the current environment, the reduction in rates generally has meant a little lower cost for us in the rates that we're offering.

傑德，我們仍在解決大多數社區的每月付款問題。因此，我們將繼續努力提供低於市場利率的利率，並解決每月付款問題，讓人們能夠繼續購買。在當前環境下，利率的降低通常意味著我們提供的利率成本會略微降低。

We're still largely at the low end, about 3.99% rate that we're offering. And we'll just see as it comes. I think it's probably going to be a combination of both. In other words, if we need to step down some more to drive to the monthly payment to open up the absorptions that we're looking for at a community level to drive the returns that we want, then we'll continue to do that. And if rates drop down and we are allowed to reduce our incentive in terms of the cost of that BFC, we'll take advantage of some of that. So I would expect it to be a balance as we look forward.

我們提供的利率仍處於低端，約 3.99%。我們拭目以待。我認為這可能是兩者的結合。換句話說，如果我們需要進一步降低每月付款額度，以開放我們在社區層面尋求的吸收，從而獲得我們想要的回報，那麼我們將繼續這樣做。如果利率下降，並且我們被允許降低 BFC 成本方面的激勵，我們就會利用其中的一些優勢。因此，我希望我們能夠展望未來，保持平衡。

And in terms of buyer preferences, on the incentive package, have you seen any shift toward outright lower home base prices or savings in other areas over mortgage buy-downs?

就買家偏好和激勵方案而言，您是否看到買家傾向於直接降低房屋基準價格或透過抵押貸款購買節省其他方面的開支？

I think for our buyer, again, it still comes back to the monthly payment. And the most attractive monthly payment we can put them in is with a lower rate. And I think it's a benefit to the homeowner over time in terms of they're paying down more of their principal. And I think just overall, it's been a solid incentive and probably the most that people have taken and had interest in is still at the lower range.

我認為對於我們的買家來說，這仍然需要每月付款。我們能為他們提供的最具吸引力的月付款方式是較低的利率。我認為從長遠來看，這對房主來說是有益的，因為他們可以償還更多的本金。我認為總體而言，這是一個堅實的激勵措施，而且人們最感興趣和接受的可能仍然處於較低的範圍內。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jay McCanless, Wedbush.

傑伊麥坎利斯，韋德布希。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

So I just wanted to follow up on your comments. I think it was Bill, you said that the exit rate on gross margins at the end of the quarter was lower than you guys expected. I mean, was that more incentives, higher lot costs? Maybe talk about that a little bit? And what have you seen so far in October?

所以我只是想跟進你的評論。我認為是比爾，你說本季末的毛利率退出率低於你們的預期。我的意思是，是不是激勵越多，地塊成本就越高？也許可以稍微談論一下這個？十月到現在為止您看到了什麼？

On a like-for-like basis, we landed about 40 basis points below the low end of our guide for Q4. And really, most of that we would put at the feet of incentives. What it took in order to get the sales for the closings that needed -- that we needed to generate the volume and generate our returns.

以同類計算，我們的業績比第四季指引的低階低了約 40 個基點。事實上，我們將大部分努力歸功於激勵措施。為了實現所需的銷售額，我們需要做什麼——我們需要產生銷售並產生回報。

For fiscal '25 was -- ended up being a little bit more than what we anticipated as we went into the quarter. And so as we go into Q1, we'll be trying to strike the balance as best as we can, but we are starting Q1 at a lower entry point than we did when we entered Q4.

對於 25 財年來說，最終的結果比我們進入本季時預期的要多一些。因此，當我們進入第一季時，我們將盡力實現平衡，但我們進入第一季的切入點比進入第四季度時要低。

Got it. Okay. And then I can't remember who made the comment about this, but about lower rates seeming to drive some traffic, but maybe not conversions. I guess what are you all hearing from the field? Why aren't people willing to go ahead and pull the trigger?

知道了。好的。然後我不記得是誰對此發表了評論，但較低的費率似乎會帶來一些流量，但可能不會帶來轉換。我猜你們都聽到了什麼消息？人們為什麼不願意繼續扣下板機呢？

I mean I know we've all talked about confidence ad nauseam at this point, but are there other things that you're hearing from the field that are keeping people from going ahead and stepping up and buying the home?

我的意思是，我知道我們現在已經對信心談論得夠多了，但是您是否從現場聽到其他阻礙人們繼續前進、買房的事情？

In some cases, it's -- they want to buy the home, it's a qualification issue for what payment they can afford. So as Paul said, we're solving back for a payment. And when we can align that payment that's attainable for them that they are compelled to do that and make that move. Other buyers with rates bouncing around being volatile, they're thinking, well, maybe I should wait for them to drop, maybe I should -- I can't afford now because they're spiking up.

在某些情況下，他們想買房，但他們能否負擔得起貸款是一個資格問題。正如保羅所說，我們正在解決付款問題。當我們能夠調整他們能夠承受的付款方式時，他們就會被迫這樣做並採取行動。其他買家在利率波動較大的情況下，他們會想，好吧，也許我應該等利率下降，也許我應該——我現在買不起，因為利率正在飆升。

I think we'll see rates -- if rates drop, we'll see an increase in the transactions in the existing home side, which helps relocate people and shuffle them around a little bit and those folks then will be looking for different housing options other places. And we see a lot of people with house-to-sell contingencies that come in that want to buy a house, but they can't get their house sold.

我認為我們會看到利率——如果利率下降，我們將看到現有房屋交易量的增加，這有助於重新安置人們並稍微調整他們的居住環境，然後這些人就會在其他地方尋找不同的住房選擇。我們看到很多人帶著待售房屋的緊急需求而來，他們想買房，但卻無法賣掉房子。

Got it. Okay, thank you.

知道了。好的，謝謝。

Alex Rygiel, Texas Capital.

德州首府的 Alex Rygiel。

Thank you. What percentage of your buyers are using adjustable-rate mortgages? And how has that changed over the last 12 months?

謝謝。有多少比例的買家使用可調整利率抵押貸款？過去 12 個月中情況有何變化？

Sure. It's come from essentially zero to mid- to high single-digit percentage on closings this most recent quarter. And as we have introduced some new ARM products tethered to a rate buy down, I do think our base case would be that percentage continues to drift up, but it won't move sharply.

當然。最近一個季度，成交量從基本零上升至中高個位數百分比。由於我們推出了一些與利率購買掛鉤的新 ARM 產品，我確實認為我們的基本情況是該百分比將繼續上升，但不會大幅波動。

And then secondly, as you reaccelerate starts, can you comment on the average square footage of the floor plans? Have you changed it much at all? Or do you expect sort of modestly smaller homes kind of for the foreseeable future?

其次，當您重新加速時，您能否評論一下平面圖的平均平方英尺數？你對它做過多的改動嗎？或者您預計在可預見的未來會出現一些較小的房屋？

I would say modestly smaller. Our square footage has continued to drift down slightly, but not a significant change over the last 12 months. I think where we are today and where we have starts coming, it will be on the smaller end in the community, but we'll respond to the market as it comes.

我想說的是稍微小一點。我們的建築面積持續略有下降，但在過去 12 個月中並沒有顯著變化。我認為，我們目前所處的位置以及我們即將開始的發展，都將是社區中較小的一端，但我們會對市場做出反應。

So the good news about having the ability to sell early in the process is it opens up us to be more responsive to the market and not just responding with the inventory that we've already selected.

因此，能夠在流程早期進行銷售的好處是，它使我們能夠對市場做出更快的反應，而不僅僅是使用我們已經選擇的庫存來做出反應。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's Q&A. I will now hand the call back to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基，請他作結束語。

Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our first quarter results on Tuesday, January 20. Congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family on a successful fiscal 2025.

謝謝你，保羅。我們感謝大家今天參加電話會議的時間，並期待在 1 月 20 日星期二再次與您交談，分享我們的第一季業績。恭喜整個 D.R. Horton 家族在 2025 財年取得圓滿成功。

Due to your efforts, we just completed our 24th consecutive year as the largest builder in the United States. We are honored to represent you on this call, and we look forward to everything we will accomplish together in fiscal 2026.

由於你們的努力，我們剛剛連續第 24 年成為美國最大的建築商。我們很榮幸能代表您參加此次電話會議，並期待在 2026 財年共同取得一切成就。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。