霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the first quarter 2026 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder. (Operator Instructions) Please note that this conference is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加美國建築商 D.R. Horton 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

現在我將把電話交給 D.R. Horton 公司的高級通訊副總裁傑西卡·漢森。

Jessica, please go ahead.

傑西卡，請繼續。

Thank you. Sorry. It would help if I took myself off mute. Thank you, Paul, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026.

謝謝。對不起。如果我解除靜音功能，情況可能會有所改善。謝謝你，保羅，早安。歡迎參加我們的電話會議，我們將討論2026財年第一季的財務表現。

Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，今天的電話會議包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管 D.R. Horton 認為任何此類聲明都是基於合理的假設，但不能保證實際結果不會有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於D.R. Horton在本次電話會議之日可獲得的信息，D.R. Horton不承擔任何公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release and our supplemental data presentation can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q later this week.

有關可能導致業績發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參閱 D.R. Horton 向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告。今天早上發布的收益報告和補充資料簡報可在我們的網站 investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃在本週稍後提交 10-Q 表格。

After this call, we will also post our updated investor presentation to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News & Events for your reference.

本次通話結束後，我們也會把更新後的投資人簡報發佈到我們投資人關係網站的「新聞與活動」下的「簡報」欄位中，供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to Paul Romanowski, our President and CEO.

現在我將把電話交給我們的總裁兼執行長保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our Chief Operating Officer; and Bill Wheat, our Chief Financial Officer. The D.R. Horton team had a solid start to fiscal 2026 with consolidated pretax income of $798 million on $6.9 billion of revenues, and a pretax profit margin of 11.6%. New home demand remains impacted by affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment. However, our teams continue to respond to current market conditions with discipline.

謝謝你，潔西卡，早安。我很高興本次電話會議還有我們的營運長麥克·莫瑞和財務長比爾·惠特參加。D.R. Horton 團隊在 2026 財年開局穩健，合併稅前收入為 7.98 億美元，收入為 69 億美元，稅前利潤率為 11.6%。新房需求仍受到住房負擔能力限制和消費者謹慎情緒的影響。然而，我們的團隊將繼續以嚴謹的態度來應對當前的市場狀況。

We exceeded the high end of our revenue and closings guidance, achieved a home sales gross margin within our expected range, and our net sales orders increased 3% compared to the prior year quarter, demonstrating our ability to balance pace, price and incentives to drive incremental sales and maximize returns.

我們超出了收入和成交量預期的上限，實現了預期範圍內的房屋銷售毛利率，淨銷售訂單比上年同期增長了 3%，這表明我們有能力平衡速度、價格和激勵措施，以推動增量銷售並實現收益最大化。

We are focused on capital efficiency to generate strong operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to our shareholders. Over the past 12 months, we have generated $3.6 billion of cash from operations, and we have returned $4.4 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

我們專注於提高資本效率，以產生強勁的經營現金流，並為股東帶來可觀的回報。過去 12 個月，我們從經營活動中產生了 36 億美元的現金，並透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了 44 億美元。

For the trailing 12 months ended December 31, our homebuilding pretax return on inventory was 18.6%, while our consolidated returns on equity and assets were 13.7% and 9.4%. Our return on assets ranks in the top 20% of all S&P 500 companies for the past 3, 5 and 10-year periods, demonstrating that our disciplined returns-focused operating model produces sustainable results and positions us well for continued value creation.

截至 12 月 31 日的過去 12 個月，我們的房屋建造稅前庫存回報率為 18.6%，而我們的綜合權益回報率和資產回報率分別為 13.7% 和 9.4%。在過去 3 年、5 年和 10 年期間，我們的資產回報率在標普 500 指數公司中排名前 20%，這表明我們以回報為導向的嚴謹營運模式能夠產生可持續的業績，並使我們為持續創造價值奠定了良好的基礎。

We increased our sales incentives during the first quarter, and we expect incentives to remain elevated in fiscal 2026 with the level dependent on demand, changes in mortgage interest rates and overall market conditions.

我們在第一季提高了銷售激勵措施，預計 2026 財年激勵措施將保持在較高水平，具體水平取決於需求、抵押貸款利率的變化和整體市場狀況。

We work every day to use our industry-leading platform, unmatched scale, efficient operations and experienced employees to bring home ownership opportunities at affordable price points to more Americans.

我們每天都在努力利用我們領先業界的平台、無與倫比的規模、高效的營運和經驗豐富的員工，為更多美國人帶來價格合理的購屋機會。

64% of our mortgage company's closings this quarter were to first-time homebuyers. We will continue to tailor our product offerings, sales incentives and number of homes in inventory based on demand in each of our markets to maximize returns.

本季我們抵押貸款公司成交的房屋中，64%是首次購屋者。我們將繼續根據各個市場的需求調整我們的產品供應、銷售獎勵措施和房屋庫存數量，以實現最大收益。

Mike?

麥克風？

Earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2026 were $2.03 per diluted share, compared to $2.61 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter was $595 million on consolidated revenues of $6.9 billion. Our first quarter home sales revenues were $6.5 billion on 17,818 homes closed, compared to $7.1 billion on 19,059 homes closed in the prior year quarter. Our average closing price for the quarter was $365,500, flat sequentially and down 3% year-over-year.

2026 財年第一季每股攤薄收益為 2.03 美元，而去年同期為每股 2.61 美元。本季淨利為 5.95 億美元，合併收入為 69 億美元。我們第一季的房屋銷售收入為 65 億美元，共售出 17,818 套房屋，而去年同期為 71 億美元，共售出 19,059 套房屋。本季平均收盤價為 365,500 美元，環比持平，年減 3%。

Our average sales price on homes closed is lower than the average sales price new homes in the United States by roughly $135,000 or almost 30%. Additionally, the median sales price of our homes is $70,000 lower than the median price of an existing home.

我們售出的房屋平均售價比美國新房的平均售價低約 135,000 美元，近 30%。此外，我們房屋的銷售價格中位數比現有房屋的價格中位數低 7 萬美元。

Bill?

帳單？

For the first quarter, our net sales orders increased 3% from the prior year quarter to 18,300 homes, while order value remained unchanged at $6.7 million. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 18%, consistent with the prior year quarter and down from 20% sequentially.

第一季度，我們的淨銷售訂單比去年同期成長了 3%，達到 18,300 套房屋，而訂單價值保持不變，為 670 萬美元。本季我們的取消率是 18%，與去年同期持平，較上一季的 20% 下降。

Our average number of active selling communities was up 2% sequentially and up 12% year-over-year. The average price of net sales orders in the first quarter was $364,000, which was flat sequentially and down 2% from the prior year quarter.

我們的平均活躍銷售社群數量較上季成長 2%，較去年同期成長 12%。第一季淨銷售訂單的平均價格為 364,000 美元，與上一季持平，比上年同期下降 2%。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the first quarter was 20.4%, up 40 basis points sequentially from the September quarter, entirely due to a recovery of prior-period warranty costs received during the quarter. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were flat sequentially, while stick-and-brick costs were down roughly 1% and lot costs increased 2%.

第一季房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 20.4%，比 9 月的季度環比增長 40 個基點，這完全是由於本季度收回了先前期間的保固成本。以每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入環比持平，而磚瓦結構成本下降了約 1%，地塊成本上升了 2%。

Excluding the 40 basis point benefit in our gross margin this quarter from the recovery of prior warranty costs, our home sales gross margin would have been 20%. Additionally, incentive increases moved throughout the quarter, so we expect our homes sold gross margin to be lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter.

如果排除本季因收回先前保固成本而帶來的 40 個基點的毛利率收益，我們的房屋銷售毛利率將達到 20%。此外，激勵措施的增加貫穿整個季度，因此我們預計第二季度房屋銷售毛利率將低於第一季。

Our incentive levels and home sales gross margin for the remainder of the year will be dependent on the strength of demand, changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions.

今年剩餘時間的激勵程度和房屋銷售毛利率將取決於需求的強度、抵押貸款利率的變化以及其他市場狀況。

Bill?

帳單？

Our first quarter homebuilding SG&A expenses decreased 1% from last year, and homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 9.7%, up from 8.9% in the prior year quarter. The increase in our SG&A expense ratio was primarily due to our lower home closings volume as compared to the prior year quarter. We continue to manage our platform with discipline and are focused on gaining market share efficiently while driving operating leverage over time.

我們第一季的住宅建設銷售、一般及行政費用比去年同期下降了 1%，住宅建設銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比為 9.7%，高於去年同期的 8.9%。我們的銷售、一般及行政費用率上升主要是由於與去年同期相比，我們的房屋成交量下降所致。我們將繼續以嚴謹的態度管理我們的平台，專注於有效率地獲取市場份額，同時隨著時間的推移提高營運槓桿。

Paul?

保羅？

We started 18,500 homes in the December quarter, up 27% sequentially from the fourth quarter, and we expect our starts in the second quarter to be higher than the first quarter. We ended the quarter with 30,400 homes in inventory, of which 20,000 were unsold.

我們在 12 月季度開工建設了 18,500 套房屋，比第四季度環比增長了 27%，我們預計第二季度的開工量將高於第一季。本季末，我們的庫存房屋數量為 30,400 套，其中 20,000 套尚未售出。

7,300 of our unsold homes at quarter-end were completed, down 2,000 homes from September. 900 of our unsold homes have been completed for greater than six months. For homes we closed in the first quarter, our median cycle time, measured from home start to home closed, decreased two weeks from a year ago.

截至季末，我們未售出的房屋中有7,300套已竣工，比9月份減少了2,000套。其中900套未售出的房屋已竣工超過六個月。對於我們第一季完成的房屋，從房屋開工到房屋竣工的平均週期時間比一年前減少了兩週。

Our improved cycle times enable us to hold fewer homes in inventory and turn our housing inventory more efficiently. We will continue to manage our homes and inventory and starts pace based on market conditions.

我們縮短了房屋週轉週期，從而可以減少房屋庫存，並提高房屋週轉效率。我們將繼續根據市場狀況管理我們的房屋和庫存，並加快上市速度。

Mike?

麥克風？

Our homebuilding lot position at December 31 consists of approximately 590,500 lots, of which 25% were owned and 75% were controlled through purchase contracts. We are actively managing our investments in lots, land and development based on current market conditions.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的住宅建築用地儲備約為 590,500 個地塊，其中 25% 為自有，75% 為透過購買合約控制。我們正根據當前市場狀況，積極管理我們在土地、地塊和開發方面的投資。

We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to allow us to build more homes on lots developed by others, which enhances our capital efficiency, returns and operational flexibility.

我們將繼續專注於與全國各地的土地開發商建立合作關係，以便在其他人開發的土地上建造更多房屋，從而提高我們的資本效率、回報和營運靈活性。

Of the homes we closed this quarter, 67% were in a lot developed by either Forestar or a third party, up from 65% in the prior year quarter.

本季我們成交的房屋中，67%位於Forestar或第三方開發的土地上，高於去年同期的65%。

Our first quarter homebuilding investment in lots, land and development totaled $2 billion, of which $1.3 billion was for finished lots, $610 million was for land development and $80 million was for land acquisition.

我們第一季在住宅建設方面的投資總額為 20 億美元，其中 13 億美元用於已建成的地塊，6.1 億美元用於土地開發，8,000 萬美元用於土地收購。

Paul?

保羅？

In the first quarter, our rental operations generated $110 million of revenues from the sale of 397 single-family rental homes. Our rental property inventory at December 31 was $2.9 billion, which consisted of $2.5 billion of multifamily rental properties and $356 million of single-family rental properties.

第一季度，我們的租賃業務透過出售 397 套獨棟出租房屋，創造了 1.1 億美元的收入。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的租賃物業庫存為 29 億美元，其中包括 25 億美元的多戶住宅租賃物業和 3.56 億美元的單戶住宅租賃物業。

We remain focused on improving the capital efficiency and returns of our rental operations. As for our financial services operations, pretax income for the first quarter was $58 million on $185 million of revenues, resulting in a pretax profit margin of 31.4%.

我們將繼續專注於提高租賃業務的資本效率和回報。至於我們的金融服務業務，第一季稅前收入為 5,800 萬美元，營收為 1.85 億美元，稅前利潤率為 31.4%。

Mike?

麥克風？

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company, reported revenues for the first quarter of $273 million on 1,944 lots sold, with pretax income of $21 million. Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at December 31 was 101,000 lots. 62% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $180 million of our finished lots purchased in the first quarter were from Forestar.

我們控股的住宅用地開發公司 Forestar 公佈第一季營收為 2.73 億美元，售出 1,944 個地塊，稅前收入為 2,100 萬美元。截至12月31日，Forestar擁有並控制的地塊數量為101,000塊。 Forestar擁有的地塊中，62%已與D.R. Horton簽訂合約或D.R. Horton享有優先購買權。我們第一季購買的價值1.8億美元的已建成地塊均來自Forestar。

Forestar's strong, separately capitalized balance sheet, national operating platform and lot supply position them well to provide essential finished lots to the homebuilding industry and aggregate significant market share over the next several years.

Forestar 擁有強大的獨立資本資產負債表、全國營運平台和地塊供應，這使其能夠為住宅建築業提供必要的成品地塊，並在未來幾年內佔據相當大的市場份額。

Bill?

帳單？

Our capital allocation strategy is disciplined and balanced to support an operating platform that produces attractive returns and substantial operating cash flows. We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and healthy liquidity, which provides us with significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities.

我們的資本配置策略嚴謹而平衡，旨在支援一個能夠產生可觀回報和可觀經營現金流的營運平台。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表，槓桿率低，流動性健康，這為我們提供了相當大的財務靈活性，以適應不斷變化的市場狀況和機會。

During the first three months of the year, homebuilding cash provided by operations was $498 million and consolidated cash provided by operations was $854 million.

今年前三個月，住宅建設經營活動產生的現金流量為 4.98 億美元，合併經營活動產生的現金流量為 8.54 億美元。

During the first quarter, we repurchased 4.4 million shares of common stock for $670 million, and our outstanding share count is down 9% from a year ago. We also paid cash dividends of $0.45 per share, totaling $132 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level to be paid in February.

第一季度，我們以 6.7 億美元回購了 440 萬股普通股，我們的流通股數量比一年前減少了 9%。我們還派發了每股 0.45 美元的現金股息，總計 1.32 億美元，董事會已宣布將於 2 月派發相同水準的季度股息。

At quarter-end, our stockholders' equity was $24 billion, down 4% from a year ago, and book value per share was $82.60, up 5% from a year ago. By December 31, we had $6.6 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $2.5 billion of cash and $4.1 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities.

截至季末，我們的股東權益為 240 億美元，比去年同期下降 4%；每股帳面價值為 82.60 美元，比去年同期成長 5%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 66 億美元的合併流動資金，其中包括 25 億美元的現金和 41 億美元的可用信貸額度。

Debt at the end of the quarter totaled $5.5 billion, and we have $600 million of homebuilding senior notes maturing in the next 12 months. Our consolidated leverage at December 31 was 18.8% and we plan to maintain our leverage around 20% over the long term.

截至季末，債務總額為 55 億美元，未來 12 個月內將有 6 億美元的房屋建造優先票據到期。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為 18.8%，我們計劃將槓桿率長期維持在 20% 左右。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Looking forward to the second quarter, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues in the range of $7.3 billion to $7.8 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 19,700 to 20,200 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin for the second quarter to be in the range of 19% to 19.5% and our consolidated pretax profit margin to be in the range of 10.6% to 11.1%.

展望第二季度，我們目前預計合併收入將在 73 億美元至 78 億美元之間，房屋建造業務的房屋成交量將在 19700 至 20200 套之間。我們預計第二季房屋銷售毛利率將在 19% 至 19.5% 之間，合併稅前利潤率將在 10.6% 至 11.1% 之間。

For the full year of fiscal 2026, we still expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $33.5 billion to $35 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 86,000 to 88,000 homes.

預計 2026 財年全年，我們的合併收入將達到約 335 億美元至 350 億美元，房屋建造業務的房屋交付量將達到 86,000 至 88,000 套。

We continue to forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2026 of approximately 24.5%, operating cash flow of at least $3 billion, common stock repurchases of approximately $2.5 billion and dividend payments of around $500 million.

我們繼續預測 2026 財年的所得稅率約為 24.5%，經營現金流至少為 30 億美元，普通股回購約為 25 億美元，股利支付約為 5 億美元。

Paul?

保羅？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and focus on delivering quality homes at affordable price points. All of these are key components of our operating platform that support our ability to aggregate market share, generate substantial operating cash flows and return capital to shareholders.

總而言之，我們的業績和市場地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地域覆蓋以及專注於以實惠的價格提供優質住宅。這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分，它們支撐著我們擴大市場份額、產生大量營運現金流以及向股東返還資本的能力。

We recognize the current volatility and uncertainty in the economy, and we'll continue to adjust to market conditions in a disciplined manner to enhance the long-term value of our company. Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work. Let's continue working to improve our operations and provide homeownership opportunities to more individuals and families during 2026.

我們認識到當前經濟的波動性和不確定性，我們將繼續以嚴謹的方式調整以適應市場狀況，從而提升公司的長期價值。感謝D.R. Horton全體員工、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人的持續努力和辛勤工作。讓我們繼續努力改進運營，並在 2026 年為更多個人和家庭提供擁有住房的機會。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

我們的發言稿到此結束。現在我們將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Actually, quite impressive here given the headwinds. So congratulations to you guys. I wanted to ask you about your SG&A, if I could. I think that it was probably a little higher, my guess is, than you expected. And I was curious, you attributed the higher level primarily due to lower closings year-over-year, but your closings didn't miss your expectations or your guide. And so -- and actually, it beat.

考慮到逆風，這成績確實相當不錯。所以恭喜你們！如果可以的話，我想問一下您的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）情況。我想它可能比你預期的要高一些。我很好奇，您將較高的水平主要歸因於同比成交量下降，但您的成交量並沒有低於您的預期或指導標準。所以——而且實際上，它贏了。

So I was kind of curious, did the SG&A sort of surprise you? And was there anything else other than the fact that you had some lower closings, just given the fact that it didn't really sort of square with your closings came in? And particularly within that, could you -- is there anything in the way of incentives or something that is showing up in SG&A?

所以我就有點好奇，銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）有沒有讓你感到意外？除了成交量較低之外，還有其他原因嗎？畢竟，這和你們的成交量不太吻合。尤其其中，您能否說明一下－銷售、一般及行政費用中是否有任何激勵措施或其他因素？

Steve, nothing unusual in SG&A this quarter. Overall, relatively in line with our plan, and we hit our operating margin guidance for the quarter. If you look at the overall spend on SG&A, it was down slightly year-over-year in terms of absolute dollars. And as we look at our platform and we look at what we're planning to do this year, we're planning on growing our closings. Our guide is to grow our closings for the year. And so we're maintaining our platform in place.

史蒂夫，本季銷售、管理及行政費用一切正常。總體而言，基本上符合我們的計劃，並且我們實現了本季的營業利潤率預期。若從銷售、管理及行政費用（SG&A）的整體支出來看，其絕對金額較去年同期略有下降。當我們審視我們的平台以及今年的計劃時，我們計劃增加成交量。我們的目標是提高今年的成交量。因此，我們將繼續維護我們的平台。

But our first quarter closings were down. And just we get less leverage on our SG&A when we have fewer closings during the quarter. But our expectation is for the year is we would not continue to see this kind of increase as a percentage of revenues over the course of the entire year.

但我們第一季的成交額有所下降。而且，當季度內成交量減少時，我們在銷售、管理及行政費用方面的槓桿作用也會降低。但我們預計，今年全年營收佔比不會繼續維持這種成長速度。

So just to clarify, you're saying your guide for the year is for SG&A to be kind of flattish on a year-over-year basis as a percentage of revenues, is that what you're saying?

所以，為了確認一下，您的意思是說，您預計今年的銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比將與上年基本持平，是嗎？

We don't guide any of our margins or expense ratios over the course of an entire year. We just guide one quarter out. We're guiding our operating margin for Q2 and our gross margin for Q2 and then, obviously, our volume for the entire year.

我們不會對全年的利潤率或費用率進行任何調整。我們只引導四分之一的出口。我們正在預測第二季的營業利潤率、第二季的毛利率，以及全年的銷售量。

Got you. Okay. And then I guess, you've also -- you've talked about your capital allocation and your -- sorry, specifically, you reiterated your guide for cash flow. And I was curious if you -- I think in the past, you had talked about cash flow -- targeting a cash flow conversion of about 100%. Can you talk about how that progression is going and whether or not that's still a reasonable expectation in the foreseeable future?

抓到你了。好的。然後我想，您也談到了您的資本配置，以及—抱歉，具體來說，您重申了您的現金流指南。我很好奇您是否——我想您過去曾談到過現金流——目標是實現大約 100% 的現金流轉換率。您能否談談這一進展的現狀，以及在可預見的未來，這是否仍然是一個合理的預期？

Yeah, that's still a reasonable expectation. We're still guiding. We reiterated our guide to have cash flow -- consolidated cash flow greater than $3 billion. I think we're tracking right in line with expectations.

是的，這仍然是一個合理的期望。我們仍在提供指導。我們重申了我們的指導原則，即擁有現金流——合併現金流超過 30 億美元。我認為我們目前的情況完全符合預期。

John Lovallo, UBS.

瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

Pretty strong community count growth in the first quarter of about 12% year-over-year on average. How are you guys thinking about kind of the cadence of community count growth as we move through the year?

第一季社區數量成長強勁，平均年增約 12%。隨著時間推移，你們如何看待社區數量成長的節奏？

John, that community count is up. It was up 12% and 2%, I think, sequentially. And we still think we're going to see that community count continue to stay at a higher level, but we do expect it to drift down more towards mid-single to high single-digit range.

約翰，社區統計數據已經更新了。我認為，它環比上漲了 12% 和 2%。我們仍然認為社區感染人數將繼續保持在較高水平，但我們預計它會逐漸下降到個位數中段到個位數高段的範圍內。

We're pleased to have the community count out there today as we've seen absorption across the market, not seeing as much absorption per flag. So having mutual communities allows us to maintain our guide and still feel comfortable with where we're positioned today as we see the spring season unfold.

我們很高興今天能公佈社群統計數據，因為我們看到整個市場的吸收率都在上升，而不是每個品牌的吸收率都很高。因此，擁有共同的社區使我們能夠保持我們的指導方針，並且隨著春季的展開，我們仍然對我們目前所處的位置感到滿意。

Understood. And then if we walk from the fourth quarter gross margin of 20%, excluding the inventory reserve or the warranty -- I'm sorry, the warranty reserve benefit, what are sort of the moving pieces there? I know, Jessica, you mentioned that incentives kind of stepped up as you moved through the quarter, but how are you thinking maybe about land, labor and materials on a sequential basis?

明白了。那麼，如果我們從第四季度 20% 的毛利率出發，不包括庫存準備金或保固——抱歉，是保固準備金收益——那麼，其中有哪些變動因素呢？我知道，傑西卡，你提到隨著季度的推進，激勵措施增加，但你如何看待土地、勞動力和材料方面的順序變化？

Sure. First, John, just as a reminder, in Q4, we also had an unusual item flowing through our warranty and litigation costs. We had 60 basis points of greater than typical litigation costs last quarter. This quarter we had the opposite direction, a 40 basis point benefit from those warranty costs. So kind of on an apples-to-apples basis, our fourth quarter gross margin was 20.6%. Our Q1 gross margin is 20.0%. And then our guide for the quarter is 19% to 19.5% in Q2. So at the midpoint, we're estimating to be down roughly 75 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

當然。首先，約翰，提醒一下，在第四季度，我們的保固和訴訟費用中也有一筆不尋常的費用。上個季度我們的訴訟成本比正常水準高出 60 個基點。本季情況正好相反，保固成本帶來了 40 個基點的收益。因此，如果公平比較，我們第四季的毛利率為 20.6%。我們第一季的毛利率為20.0%。然後，我們對第二季的預期是 19% 至 19.5%。因此，我們預計中間值將比上一季下降約 75 個基點。

The guide really reflects what we've been seeing, which is our stick and brick cost relatively flat sequentially and slightly down year-over-year, which is what we really posted this year -- or this quarter as well. We expect our lot cost to continue to be up sequentially on a year-over-year basis based on what we currently see in our lot pipeline.

該指南確實反映了我們所看到的情況，即我們的磚瓦成本環比相對持平，同比略有下降，這與我們今年（或本季度）的實際數據相符。根據我們目前正在建造工程的情況，我們預計我們的地塊成本將繼續逐年上漲。

And then as I did say on the call, we had to use a higher level of incentives as we moved throughout the quarter. So the guide really, most importantly, incorporates the most recent market conditions we've seen and our backlog margin coming out of the quarter at the end of December.

正如我在電話會議上所說，隨著季度的推進，我們不得不提高激勵力度。因此，該指南真正、最重要的是納入了我們所看到的最新市場狀況以及截至 12 月底的季度積壓訂單利潤率。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·布雷，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to stick on the incentive topic. If I'm hearing you correctly, I mean, it sounds like that Q2 guide is reflecting of your increase in incentives over the past quarter in terms of what you're selling. So obviously, we've had this move lower in mortgage rates over the past several months, over the past couple of weeks, et cetera.

我想繼續討論激勵機制這個主題。如果我理解正確的話，我的意思是，第二季業績指引似乎反映了你上個季度在銷售產品方面增加的激勵措施。很顯然，在過去的幾個月、幾週等等時間裡，抵押貸款利率一直在下降。

I mean, does the move lower in rates at a certain point either support that kind of cost of incentives for you guys? Or are you able to kind of do anything creatively around ARMs or temporary buydowns, et cetera, in this backdrop? Just kind of any visibility to where you might see that incentive sort of peaking out at some point?

我的意思是，利率在某個階段下降是否能夠支撐你們承擔這種激勵成本？或者，在這種背景下，您是否能夠圍繞ARM或臨時買斷等進行一些創意的工作？有沒有人能預見這種激勵措施會在什麼時候達到頂峰？

The cost of the incentives that came through in the first quarter were largely resulted from interest rate loss provided when rates were slightly higher, therefore, at a higher cost. We accelerated the use of those incentives throughout the quarter and the exiting incentive levels in December are heavily coloring our margin outlook for the second quarter. If rates continue to compress and stay compressed, we would expect to see a slight decrease in the cost of providing those incentives, but that's not yet factored into any of our guidance.

第一季發放的獎勵措施的成本主要源自於利率略高時提供的利息損失，因此成本也較高。本季我們加快了這些激勵措施的使用，12 月的激勵水準將對我們第二季的利潤率預期產生重大影響。如果利率繼續下降並保持低位，我們預計提供這些激勵措施的成本會略有下降，但這尚未納入我們的任何指導意見中。

Okay. Perfect. And secondly, maybe just sticking on this topic of lower rates, I know we can't always read too much into the first three weeks of the calendar year, but just any color on sort of the cadence of demand, traffic and sales maybe through the quarter? And then since you have gotten this move lower in rates in recent weeks, is there just any kind of signals you can take from the past couple of weekends on how buyers are responding to that?

好的。完美的。其次，或許可以繼續討論利率下降這個話題，我知道我們不能總是從日曆年的前三週得出太多結論，但能否從整個季度的需求、流量和銷售節奏方面提供一些資訊呢？鑑於最近幾週利率有所下降，從過去幾個週末的情況來看，買家對此有何反應？

Matt, I would say through the quarter, relatively consistent with what we would expect to see seasonally entering into that quarter and being one of the lower quarters in terms of overall demand. As we enter into the spring and in the first two weeks, really too early to tell what we're going to see as far as trajectory into the spring.

馬特，我認為本季的情況與我們預期的季節性變化基本一致，而且本季也是整體需求較低的季度之一。進入春季，在最初的兩週內，要判斷春季的發展軌跡還為時過早。

But when we see those kind of rates -- moves in rates and hovering right around 6%, it does spur some activity in our sales offices. And I think today, feel good about our position in terms of our inventory, our community count and the level of sales we've seen through the first quarter and into the first couple of weeks here of the second quarter to reaffirm our guidance for the year.

但當我們看到這種利率——利率波動並徘徊在 6% 左右時，確實會刺激我們銷售辦事處的一些活動。我認為今天，就我們的庫存、社區數量以及第一季和第二季前幾週的銷售水準而言，我們都感到滿意，這足以重申我們對全年的業績預期。

Alan Ratner, Zelman.

艾倫·拉特納，澤爾曼。

Obviously, there's a lot of focus on the policy side, and I'm sure we'll hear some more from President Trump this week on that front. But I guess, first off, in terms of what has been announced so far or at least floated out there, with specific regard to your rental business, I'm curious how you're thinking about that in the context of the proposed ban on institutional buyers purchasing single-family homes.

顯然，各方都非常關注政策方面，我相信本週我們會聽到川普總統在這方面發表更多演說。但我想，首先，就目前已公佈或至少已流傳出的消息而言，特別是關於您的租賃業務，我很好奇您在擬議禁止機構買家購買獨棟住宅的背景下是如何看待這個問題的。

I know you guys have been kind of reducing investment in rental in general. But how are you thinking about managing that business investment there, building out communities with the uncertainty hanging over that part of the business?

我知道你們一直在減少對租賃市場的整體投資。但是，鑑於該業務部分存在許多不確定性，您打算如何管理在那裡的商業投資，以及如何建立社區？

Alan, our focus on SFR rental has largely been and continues to be on purpose-built communities and believe that that's a good place for us to continue to stay focused. We don't sell many homes to institutional buyers in our for-sale communities. So for us, really not much competition for those people that are coming in to buy a home, looking for a home and whether it's first time, move-up or any one of our segments. We think we'll continue to stay focused there.

艾倫，我們一直以來都專注於單戶住宅租賃，並相信這仍然是我們應該繼續專注的領域。在我們出​​售的社區中，我們很少向機構買家出售房屋。所以對我們來說，對於那些前來購屋、尋找住房的人來說，無論是首次購屋者、改善型購屋者或是我們任何一個細分市場的客戶，我們其實並沒有太大的競爭。我們打算繼續專注於那方面。

And with our SFR business that's shifted more from a full build, lease and then sell a fully stabilized asset to more of a forward sales scenario, so feel really good about the position of our single-family rental business. And we'll see how all of this plays out over time, but feel good about our position there.

我們的單戶住宅業務已從完全建造、租賃，然後出售完全穩定的資產，轉變為更多地採用預售模式，因此我對我們單戶住宅租賃業務的現狀感到非常滿意。我們會看看這一切最終會如何發展，但對我們目前所處的地位感到樂觀。

Okay. I appreciate that. Obviously, we'll see whether there's any type of exclusion or carve-out for those purpose-built communities. I think, obviously, there's a good argument for that to be the case. But shifting gears a little bit in terms of the land market.

好的。我很感激。顯然，我們將看看是否存在針對這些專門建造的社區的任何形式的排除或豁免。我認為，很顯然，這種說法是有充分理由的。但就土地市場而言，情況需要稍作調整。

I'm curious if you could talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the land front in terms of have costs started to come down at all in the land market? Are you seeing more of a bid-ask spread widening and kind of a slowdown in overall activity, development cost inflation? Any color you can give there, because, obviously, I think that's going to be a necessary component towards rebuilding the industry's gross margin, is to see some relief on land costs and development inflation.

我想請您談談您目前在土地市場觀察到的情況，例如土地市場的成本是否已經開始下降？您是否觀察到買賣價差擴大、整體市場活動放緩以及開發成本上漲的趨勢？任何你能提供的信息，因為很明顯，我認為要重建行業的毛利率，就必須緩解土地成本和開發通膨問題。

I don't think we've seen significant capitulation in the land, the raw land market itself. I think the sellers there are really patient. We have seen probably some progress on some of the development cost aspects as activity levels have slowed.

我認為我們還沒有看到土地市場，特別是原始土地市場出現明顯的投機行為。我覺得那裡的賣家真的很有耐心。隨著活動水準放緩，我們可能在某些開發成本方面看到了一些進展。

And further, we've seen some improved terms, not a tremendous amount of price discounts or any distress opportunities, but rational conversations with our land development partners about meeting the market together and working through communities at acceptable paces. So we've seen some adjustments in pacing, which has been very helpful. But we haven't seen any broad default of deals or new deals coming -- the deals coming back to the market over and over again with distressed sellers.

此外，我們看到了一些改善的條款，雖然沒有大量的折扣或任何迫不得已的機會，但我們與土地開發合作夥伴進行了理性的對話，共同迎合市場，並以可接受的速度推進社區建設。所以我們看到節奏上做了一些調整，這非常有幫助。但我們還沒有看到任何大範圍的交易違約或新交易的出現——這些交易一次又一次地回到市場上，由陷入困境的賣家進行。

Ryan Gilbert, BTIG.

Ryan Gilbert，BTIG。

I just wanted to go back on the, I guess, the year-to-date demand trends. Paul, it sounded like you said that when rates get to around 6%, you see a pickup in the sales offices. Has that been the case so far in January? Have you seen a pickup in homebuyer demand given the drop in rates?

我只是想回顧一下今年迄今為止的需求趨勢。保羅，聽起來你好像說過，當利率達到 6% 左右時，銷售辦公室就會出現回溫的跡象。一月至今情況是否如此？鑑於利率下降，您是否觀察到購屋者需求回升？

We've been pleased with what we've seen so far. Again, it's early, very early in the spring selling season, and we'll see how that plays out over time, but feel good about our positioning. And any time you see the rates move across a threshold like that, it certainly creates more activity in our sales offices.

我們對目前所看到的感到滿意。再次強調，現在還處於春季銷售旺季的初期，我們將拭​​目以待，看看隨著時間的推移情況會如何發展，但我們對我們的市場定位感到樂觀。每當利率突破這樣的門檻時，肯定會為我們的銷售辦公室帶來更多業務量。

Okay. Got it. And then on the supply side, it looked like maybe there was a step down in industry-wide housing starts, and I think we're seeing some move lower in resell inventory as well. Are there any markets where you're seeing any benefit from less inventory coming online or maybe supply or home construction dropping that could potentially help margins going forward?

好的。知道了。而在供應方面，整個行業的房屋開工量似乎有所下降，而且我認為我們也看到二手房庫存也在下降。在某些市場，庫存減少、供應下降或房屋建設減少等因素是否會帶來一些好處，這可能有助於提高未來的利潤率？

I don't think there's any specific markets I can speak to where we've seen any significant shift in supply. I do believe that it's been a pretty rational approach to the market in terms of starts for us and across the industry. We feel good about our inventory position. Our starts slightly exceeded our sales this quarter. We do expect our starts to be more in the second quarter than in our first.

我認為目前還沒有任何具體的市場出現供應方面的重大變化。我認為，就我們以及整個產業的開拍情況而言，這一直是相當理性的市場策略。我們對目前的庫存狀況感到滿意。本季我們的開貨量略高於銷售額。我們預計第二節的開局次數會比第一節多。

And what we watch closely is the number of completed homes that we have, and that is down a couple of thousand units sequentially this quarter over last. So feel good about our positioning, the amount of supply we have in the market and have the homes we need to meet demand in the spring selling season.

我們密切關注的是已竣工房屋的數量，而本季比上一季減少了數千套。因此，我們對自身的市場定位、市場供應量以及春季銷售旺季所需的房屋數量都感到非常滿意。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

山姆·里德，富國銀行。

I wondered if could just do a quick postmortem on the warranty cost piece of gross margin and that reversal you called out in the first quarter. First of all, were you expecting to get a reversal there? And then second, is there any warranty noise we should be contemplating in the second quarter guide? And then perhaps just want to talk to kind of what should we be thinking out for warranty costs within gross margins on a go-forward basis?

我想請您快速分析一下毛利率中的保固成本部分，以及您在第一季提到的逆轉情況。首先，你預料到會出現逆轉嗎？其次，在第二季業績指引中，是否有任何保固方面的干擾因素值得我們關注？然後，我們或許想討論一下，在未來的發展中，我們該如何考慮保固成本在毛利率中的作用？

Sure, Sam. The warranty recovery was something we've been working on for a period of time to recoup some costs that we had to incur that you'll see when we file our 10-Q were predominantly in our San Antonio market in the South Central region. So we were pleased to get that settlement in and be able to net against the warranty costs that we incurred during the quarter.

當然可以，山姆。我們已經努力了一段時間，進行保固索賠，以彌補我們必須承擔的一些成本，您將在我們提交的 10-Q 表格中看到這些成本，這些成本主要發生在我們位於中南部地區的聖安東尼奧市場。因此，我們很高興能夠達成和解，並能夠抵消我們在本季產生的保固成本。

We also did see just a slightly overall level -- slightly lower level of warranty and litigation costs incurred this quarter than our typical. And you layer that into also the litigation cost last quarter, and you see a big swing in the warranty and litigation cost line item and our gross margin supplemental detail that we provide that was actually a 20 basis points benefit. We would expect going forward that to be more normal.

我們也發現，本季產生的保固和訴訟成本整體水準略低於往年水準。再加上上個季度的訴訟成本，你會發現保固和訴訟成本項目以及我們提供的毛利率補充明細出現了大幅波動，實際上帶來了 20 個基點的收益。我們預計這種情況今後會越來越普遍。

And if you go and look at prior quarters outside of the last two, let's call it, anywhere from 30 basis points to 60 basis points that we net against our gross home sales gross margin for warranty and litigation costs. And we don't know of anything at this time that would make that be different in the go-forward quarters. The last two quarters have just been unusual in terms of what's happened.

如果你查看過去兩個季度以外的其他季度，我們姑且稱之為，我們會從房屋銷售毛利率中扣除 30 到 60 個基點作為保固和訴訟成本。目前我們還不知道有什麼因素會導致未來幾季的情況有所不同。過去兩個季度發生的事情確實很不尋常。

That helps, Jessica. And then switching gears here. One of your big competitors is stepping up the use of ARMs. Can you just remind us your mix of ARMs and where that sits relative to last quarter and last year? And then if there is any change in your ARM cadence, any implications for financial services margins that we should be cognizant of?

那很有幫助，傑西卡。然後，我們換個話題。你的一個主要競爭對手正在加強對ARM架構的使用。能否簡單介紹一下貴公司 ARM 資產組合的構成，以及與上季和​​去年同期相比的組成？那麼，如果您的 ARM 節奏有任何變化，這會對金融服務利潤率產生哪些我們應該注意的影響？

Our use of ARMs is in the low single digit as a percent of homes financed through our mortgage company and although we've seen some more attractive ARM products that, for us, if they can be utilized for long-term approval, meaning that they're a longer-term ARM, then we've seen some. But it hasn't stepped up much. Still the incentive used most when we talk about rates is, for our buyers and through our mortgage companies, is a 30-year fixed rate.

在我們公司抵押貸款中，使用可調利率抵押貸款 (ARM) 的房屋比例僅為個位數，儘管我們看到了一些更具吸引力的 ARM 產品，但對我們來說，如果它們可以用於長期審批，也就是說它們是期限較長的 ARM，那麼我們也會考慮使用。但它並沒有取得太多進展。不過，當我們談到利率時，對於我們的購屋者和抵押貸款公司來說，最常用的激勵措施仍然是 30 年固定利率。

Yeahj. So when Paul says low single digit on ARMs, that's just an absolute ARM product that is their product. If you look at the rate buydowns we're utilizing, we did see a tick up in temporary buydowns that we layered in on top of the permanent, and that was more like a low double-digit percentage this quarter. But that's been running anywhere from a mid to high single-digit percentage.

是的。所以當保羅說ARM架構的功耗是低個位數時，那隻是ARM公司出品的絕對產品，是他們的產品。如果你看一下我們正在使用的利率下調措施，我們確實看到臨時性利率下調措施有所增加，這些措施是在永久性利率下調措施的基礎上疊加的，而本季度這部分增幅達到了兩位數的低百分比。但這比例一直維持在個位數百分比的中高點。

Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research.

埃里克·博沙德，克利夫蘭研究公司。

The comments you've made about affordability. I'm just curious, obviously, there's some hope for some external solution to affordability. But absent that, the steps that you're looking at to address affordability, what you're doing with incentives is having some effect, but are there any structural things you're evaluating or taking in regards to house size or house construct or location or even markets that you're considering related to this ongoing affordability issue?

你對價格承受能力發表的評論。我只是好奇，顯然，希望能夠找到一些外部方法來提高價格負擔能力。但是，如果沒有這些措施，你們正在考慮的解決住房負擔能力問題的措施，你們正在採取的激勵措施，雖然取得了一些效果，但是，在住房面積、房屋結構、位置，甚至是市場方面，你們是否正在評估或採取任何結構性措施來解決這個持續存在的住房負擔能力問題？

Eric, we focus every day on meeting the homeowners where they need to be, especially on a monthly payment. And for us and in today's market, the reality of home pricing and cost of materials and cost of land is that we have seen continued introduction of smaller homes, whether that's a plan or two inside of an existing community or a whole community focused at more affordable price points.

埃里克，我們每天都致力於滿足房主的需求，尤其是在每月付款方面。對我們而言，在當今的市場環境下，房屋定價、建材成本和土地成本的現實情況是，我們看到小型住宅不斷湧現，無論是現有社區內的一兩個戶型，還是專注於更實惠價格的整個社區。

For us, the biggest limiter to some of that and creating more of that tends to be lot size and minimum lot size requirements at the municipal level where we can achieve that and get to a little higher density with more efficiency and provide a house that meets the monthly payment needs, especially of our first-time home buyers, we see success there.

對我們來說，限制我們建造更多房屋的最大因素往往是地塊大小和市政層面的最小地塊大小要求。如果我們能夠滿足這些要求，就能以更高的效率實現更高的密度，並提供滿足每月付款需求的房屋，特別是對於首次購房者而言，我們在這方面取得了成功。

And so we have focused on that across markets. And I wouldn't say there's any particular area where we're seeing that more, maybe other than those municipalities that are a little more flexible and allow us to go meet the market where it wants to be met.

因此，我們在各個市場都重點關注了這一點。我不會說我們在某個特定地區看到這種情況更多，也許除了那些比較靈活、允許我們去滿足市場需求的市政當局之外。

Okay. And then secondly, if I could, the first-time market, first-time customer is about two thirds of the business. I'm curious, is -- the other third of the business behaving similarly to that two thirds, to the first-time, or is there some difference in performance, price sensitivity, traffic volume, anything that's notably different?

好的。其次，如果可以的話，首次進入市場的首次客戶約佔業務的三分之二。我很好奇，剩下的三分之一的業務是否與那三分之二的業務表現相似，還是在業績、價格敏感度、流量等方面存在一些顯著差異？

I wouldn't say anything notably different. There's a lot of macro discussion going on, which I think impacts buyer sentiment in the market, and we've seen some consistency across that. Certainly, as you move up the price curve and there's less sensitivity to rates, that move-up home buyer can move with a little more consistency when they want to and as they want to. But I would say, overall, I haven't seen a specific trend which shows a big separation of what's happening in our first-time home buyer market compared to our move-up.

我不會說有什麼特別不同的說法。目前有很多宏觀層面的討論，我認為這會影響市場上的買家情緒，而且我們已經看到這方面有一些一致性。當然，隨著房價上漲，對利率的敏感度降低，改善型購屋者可以更隨心所欲地進行房屋置換。但總的來說，我還沒有看到任何具體的趨勢表明，首次購屋者市場與改善型購屋者市場之間存在很大的差異。

Anthony Pettinari, Citigroup.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗集團。

As you think about '26, do you expect to continue to outgrow the market? Or maybe could you be more in line with the market? Or are there regions where you're willing to let go a little share to maintain margin? And then just in terms of your spec count down year-over-year, is that just reflecting expectation for just kind of maybe a tougher spring season versus last year?

展望2026年，您預期公司會繼續超越市場成長嗎？或者，你們能否更貼近市場趨勢？或者，在某些地區，你願意放棄部分市佔率以維持利潤率嗎？那麼，就你們的規格倒數與往年相比而言，這是否僅僅反映了對今年春季比去年更加艱難的預期呢？

I think in terms of looking at our growth expectations relative to the market, we are expecting to grow this year. We have certainly positioned for growth with the increase in markets served over the past few years as well as significant increase in community counts being up 12% year-over-year. But we take that community by community and market by market, looking to maximize the returns there. And where we can aggregate market share profitably, we'll continue to do so, as we've done for the company's history. And the second part of your question?

我認為，就我們相對於市場的成長預期而言，我們預計今年將實現成長。過去幾年，隨著服務市場的增加以及社區數量的顯著增長（同比增長 12%），我們無疑已經為增長做好了準備。但我們會逐一社區、逐一市場評估，力求最大化收益。只要能夠獲利地擴大市場份額，我們就會繼續這樣做，就像公司歷史上一直在做的那樣。你問題的第二部分是什麼？

Specs decline.

規格下降。

Was on the spec. The spec decline is something that we've been focused on with compressing our building times and our cycle times. That way we'll be more efficient with the capital deployed in a given neighborhood and more responsive to more immediate buyer demands when they walk in. So the spec count reduction has been deliberate and purposeful. And it's not a limiter necessarily on our growth as it has been in the past because we can build homes faster than we ever have been able to.

符合規格。我們一直致力於透過縮短建造時間和週期時間來應對規格下降的問題。這樣一來，我們就能更有效地利用在特定社區部署的資金，並在買家進店時更迅速地回應他們的需求。因此，減少規格數量是經過深思熟慮和有目的的。而且，這不一定會像過去那樣限制我們的發展，因為我們現在可以比以往任何時候都更快地建造房屋。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just following up on kind of the policy, we talked about, I think, a few proposals. But I'm just curious what policies do you think could be most helpful or impactful in terms of improving housing activity and getting more folks in homes in kind of a sustainable way?

好的。那很有幫助。然後，為了跟進這項政策，我們討論了一些提案。但我很好奇，您認為哪些政策最有助於改善住房活動，並以永續的方式讓更多人擁有住房？

Anthony, we're pleased that the administration acknowledges housing affordability as an issue and that there's a lot of focus on that from a lot of folks and think that it needs to be a focus. There's lots of different things that could be done on both the supply and the demand side.

安東尼，我們很高興政府承認住房負擔能力是一個問題，而且很多人都非常關注這個問題，我們認為這確實應該成為一個關注點。在供給側和需求側，都可以採取許多不同的措施。

But ultimately, consumers are feeling good about where they are today, seeing the resale market open up, seeing availability at the local level, willingness for us to go drive more affordable housing into the market. All of those things, I think, would be helpful, and we'll see how all of this plays out over time.

但最終，消費者對現狀感到滿意，他們看到二手房市場開放，看到當地有房源，也希望我們能將更多經濟適用房推向市場。我認為所有這些都會有所幫助，我們拭目以待，看看這一切最終會如何發展。

And we're already doing more to address affordability, I'd say, than any other builder out there. And we'll see what ultimately comes out of the policy, but we believe we're the best-positioned builder to take advantage of if there is any sort of demand pickup out there, particularly for the first-time homebuyer.

而且我認為，我們在解決房價可負擔性問題上所做的努力，已經超過了其他任何建築商。我們將拭目以待這項政策最終會帶來什麼結果，但我們相信，如果市場出現任何需求回升，特別是對於首次購屋者而言，我們是最有優勢的建築商。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

Michael Rehaut，摩根大通。

First, I wanted to focus on there's recent tweets, I guess, or comments made by the FHFA Director directly speaking to share repurchases by large homebuilders in contrast to putting out more volume into the market. So I want your thoughts on that.

首先，我想專注於最近的推文，或者說是聯邦住房金融局局長直接發表的評論，他談到了大型房屋建築商回購股票，而不是向市場投放更多股票。所以我想聽聽你們的看法。

Obviously, today you reiterated your outlook for $2.5 billion of share repurchases for the year. I'm curious if you've had any direct conversations with the FHFA regarding this. Because obviously, you guys are mandated by all public companies, you have an obligation to our shareholders, first and foremost. And so I'm just curious if there's been any discussion with the FHFA, and your thoughts on those recent comments.

顯然，您今天重申了今年回購股票25億美元的預期。我很想知道你是否就此事與聯邦住房金融局（FHFA）進行任何直接溝通。因為很顯然，身為所有上市公司的股東，你們的首要職責就是為股東服務。所以我很好奇是否與聯邦住房金融局 (FHFA) 進行過任何討論，以及您對最近的那些評論有何看法。

Michael, we have maintained our balanced approach, and you look at our starts pace this quarter sequentially, up 27%, as Jessica intimated, providing affordable housing to more Americans today. I think 64% of the homes financed through our mortgage company were first-time homebuyers in closings this quarter.

邁克爾，我們一直保持著平衡的策略，正如傑西卡所暗示的那樣，你看我們本季度的開工速度環比增長了 27%，為更多美國人提供了負擔得起的住房。我認為本季透過我們抵押貸款公司融資的房屋中，有 64% 是首次購屋者完成的。

We feel very good about our position to continue to meet that demand and provide the housing that we need out there. No direct conversations for us around buybacks and feel like a balanced approach. And that's why we reiterated what we plan to do on our guidance for the year.

我們對自己能夠繼續滿足這一需求並提供我們所需的住房感到非常有信心。我們沒有就回購事宜進行直接對話，感覺這是一種平衡的做法。因此，我們重申了我們今年的業績指引計畫。

We feel like we're in a great position to continue to provide the housing that we need to with the cash flow that we're generating to both invest in our operations and our business and to provide returns and return money to our shareholders.

我們感覺我們處於非常有利的地位，能夠繼續提供我們所需的住房，利用我們產生的現金流，既可以投資於我們的營運和業務，又可以為我們的股東提供回報和返還資金。

Okay. All right. Appreciate that. I guess secondly, you kind of highlighted earlier in the call that your incentives went up during the first quarter, and that appears to be the primary driver of the sequential decline in gross margins in the second quarter, among other factors, I guess. I wanted to get a sense, as a percent of sales, where incentives ended in the first quarter versus the beginning of the first quarter. And if that shift occurred towards the end of the quarter, or was it kind of ratable throughout?

好的。好的。謝謝。其次，我想，您在先前的電話會議中也提到，您的激勵措施在第一季有所增加，這似乎是第二季毛利率環比下降的主要原因之一，當然還有其他因素。我想了解一下，以銷售額的百分比來衡量，第一季結束時的激勵措施與第一季開始時的激勵措施相比如何。如果這種轉變發生在季度末，還是貫穿整個季度，都可以進行評估？

Yeah. Mike, the increase in incentives was really ratable throughout the quarter, sequentially increased throughout the quarter. And so we exited the quarter at a higher level of incentives and a lower gross margin on our closings in December than for the overall quarter. And so that's really the level that we carry into Q2. And so that's a big part of the driver of our guide for our Q2 margin.

是的。麥克，本季激勵措施的成長是逐步增加的，整個季度都在逐週成長。因此，本季末，我們的激勵措施水準較高，但 12 月份的成交毛利率低於本季整體水準。所以，這就是我們進入第二季的水平。因此，這是我們對第二季利潤率預期的主要驅動因素之一。

And pleased that incentives are still having the desired impact, right? Our sales were up 3% year-over-year as a result of those efforts.

很高興看到激勵措施仍然發揮了預期效果，對吧？由於這些努力，我們的銷售額比去年同期成長了3%。

And can you just remind us what percent of sales incentives were by the end of the quarter versus the beginning of the quarter?

能否請您提醒一下，本季末的銷售激勵金額佔總銷售激勵金額的百分比與本季初的百分比相比分別是多少？

We've been running a high single-digit percentage. Today we might have ticked up to low double digits.

我們一直保持著接近兩位數的百分比。今天我們可能會小幅上升到兩位數。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

Trevor Allinson，Wolfe Research。

A follow-up question on your view on current new home inventory levels in your markets. I appreciate it varies market by market. But if we were to focus on some of the more important geographies in Florida, Texas and some of the other more important markets. Is there still excess inventory relative to demand, or has the slowdown in starts we've seen across the industry here in the fourth quarter, brought that more into equilibrium?

關於您對目前您所在市場新房庫存水準的看法，我想問一個後續問題。我知道不同市場的情況各不相同。但如果我們把重點放在佛羅裡達州、德克薩斯州以及其他一些更重要的市場等更重要的地區。目前庫存是否仍過剩，還是與需求不成正比？或者說，第四季整個產業的開工速度放緩，是否已經使庫存供需更加平衡？

I would say we still see pockets of elevated inventory, and that is market to market. I don't think we're here today to call out anything with specificity as to where we're significantly overweighted in inventory. But certainly, market by market and submarkets inside of larger MSAs, and there are subdivisions and communities out there where demand hasn't caught up with the amount of supply that's in the market, but we see that continue to rightsize across our footprint.

我認為我們仍然可以看到一些庫存水平較高的地區，而且這種情況因市場而異。我認為我們今天來這裡並不是為了具體指出我們在哪些方面庫存嚴重超支。但當然，在較大的都會區內，各個市場和子市場的情況各不相同，有些地區和社區的需求還沒有趕上市場上的供應量，但我們看到這種情況在我們業務範圍內持續得到改善。

Okay. Paul, that's very helpful. And then second, obviously, there's been a lot of activity on the policy side here. There's an expectation for a lot of activity. Rates have come down here.

好的。保羅，這很有幫助。其次，很顯然，政策方面也有很多活動。預計會有很多活動。這裡的利率已經下降了。

If those are successful in driving better demand this spring, how do you guys think about your preference to do more volume versus the 86,000, 88,000 closings target you have currently versus recapturing some margin as incentives still remain really elevated?

如果這些措施能夠成功推動今年春季更好的需求，你們如何看待你們目前設定的 86,000 至 88,000 筆成交目標與在激勵措施仍然非常高的情況下重新獲得一些利潤之間的權衡？

Trevor, we're going to take a look at that community by community. And as always, we're going to look to focus on driving the best return out of that given community based upon competitive dynamics at that submarket level, replacement lot supply and what our demand trends are there. And where there is opportunity for margin expansion, we'll take it. Where it makes more sense to drive more pace, we'll do that as well. Looking for a balanced approach, no different than what we've been doing. It's just responding to the current market conditions in place in front of us, sales office by sales office.

特雷弗，我們將逐一社區進行考察。和以往一樣，我們將專注於如何根據特定子市場的競爭動態、替換地塊供應以及我們的需求趨勢，從特定社區中獲得最佳回報。凡是有擴大利潤空間的機會，我們都會抓住。如果加快速度更有意義，我們也會這樣做。尋求平衡的方法，與我們一直在做的事情沒有區別。這只是根據我們面前的當前市場情況，逐一銷售辦事處地做出反應。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

Rafe Jadrosich，美國銀行。

As we head into spring selling, can you compare the market today versus, say, a year ago in terms of the demand and inventory that's out there?

隨著春季銷售旺季的到來，您能否將目前的市場需求和庫存與一年前進行比較？

I don't know that there's a direct parallel to be drawn. We are encouraged by the fact that we've still got people out there looking to buy a home. There's certainly not a lack of interest. I think it's breaking through the consumer confidence and seeing people feel good about their decision to move forward. We are encouraged by the traffic we see out there today.

我不知道兩者之間是否存在直接的類比。令我們感到鼓舞的是，仍然有人在尋找買房的機會。當然，人們對此並不缺乏興趣。我認為這是提振消費者信心，讓人們對自己的決定感到滿意並繼續前進。我們對今天路上的交通狀況感到鼓舞。

I do believe that if you look at today over last year at this time, there's a little more balance of inventory. Certainly, we see that across our communities, and think you see that across the industry. So set up. We believe we are in good position as we move into the spring selling season. Comfortable with where we're positioned with our communities, our community count, our inventory and most importantly, our people in the field, taking care of buyers as they come into our models.

我認為，如果將今天的庫存與去年同期進行比較，庫存平衡情況會更好一些。當然，我們在各個社區都看到了這種情況，而且我認為在整個行業中也都能看到這種情況。所以，開始準備吧。我們相信，隨著春季銷售旺季的到來，我們處於有利地位。我們對我們在社區、社區數量、庫存以及最重要的現場工作人員所處的位置感到滿意，他們會在買家參觀我們的樣品屋時提供周到的服務。

And then on the stick and brick side, I think you said that in the fiscal first quarter, our stick and brick costs were down 1% quarter-over-quarter, and I think you're guiding for it to be flattish quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter. Is it flattening out now? Or is there still opportunity to take more cost out? Where are you in the process of sort of clawing back some margin from either the trades or building product or distributors?

至於建築方面，我想您說過，在第一財季，我們的建築成本環比下降了 1%，而且我認為您預計第二財季的成本將與上一季持平。現在是不是趨於平緩了？還是還有機會進一步降低成本？您目前在從貿易商、建材商或分銷商收回部分利潤方面進展如何？

We believe there's still opportunity there. And our reduction in starts was intentional to give us the opportunity to meet with our trades or vendors or suppliers and look at the reality of the market in front of us.

我們相信那裡仍然存在機會。我們有意減少開工量，以便有機會與我們的貿易夥伴、供應商或供貨商會面，並了解我們面前的市場現狀。

So although our guide is too flat and not seeing significant reduction in stick and brick, part of that too is a percent of -- or it's based on a square foot basis, which is a little harder sometimes to measure based on mix and product and sizing. But we certainly feel like there's opportunity to continue to see some reductions in the cost of homes that we're putting around.

所以，儘管我們的指南過於平淡，沒有看到磚瓦建築的明顯減少，但其中一部分也是基於百分比——或者說，它是基於平方英尺計算的，而根據混合材料、產品和尺寸，有時很難衡量平方英尺。但我們確實認為，我們正在建造的房屋的成本還有繼續降低的空間。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊‧馬克拉里，高盛集團。

My first question is, thinking about the conditions that you've talked to and your ability to continue to hold on to that improvement that you've seen in cycle times and the efforts that you're realizing with your suppliers, if we do see somewhat of a lift in demand as we go through this year. Do you think you can continue to maintain that flexibility that you've realized?

我的第一個問題是，考慮到您已經討論過的情況，以及您能否繼續保持您在週期時間方面所看到的改進，以及您與供應商共同努力所取得的成果，如果我們在今年看到需求有所上升的話。你認為你能繼續保持你所獲得的這種彈性嗎？

We've had long relationships with these trade partners. The last time we had a really significant production disruption was partially labor, largely was due to material shortages. That is something we do not expect at all this time at all.

我們與這些貿易夥伴有著長期的合作關係。上一次我們遭遇真正嚴重的生產中斷，部分原因是勞動力短缺，主要原因是材料短缺。這是我們這次完全沒有預料到的事。

Materials are in great shape, product is available. And the relationships we've had with labor trades in several markets going back 30, 40 years, consistently paying the bills on time, consistent starts -- cadence and the consistency of product deployed has been really helpful in maintaining our partnership with those trade bases.

材料狀況良好，產品現貨。我們與多個市場的勞務貿易夥伴建立了長達 30、40 年的合作關係，始終按時支付賬單，穩定開工——節奏和產品部署的一致性，這對我們維持與這些貿易基地的合作關係非常有幫助。

Okay. And then maybe turning to the growth side of things. Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of some of the smaller privates, how they're feeling today, your ability to perhaps leverage further M&A as an element of growth that you're looking to achieve?

好的。然後或許可以轉向成長方面。您能否談談您觀察到的一些小型私人企業的情況，它們目前的感受，以及您是否有能力透過進一步的併購來實現您希望達成的成長目標？

We continue to look at opportunities that are in the market. And I think that our focus has been more on the tuck-in opportunities to either expand our capacity in a particular market and/or an entry into a market. But we continue to evaluate those as they come towards us. And I think if you see anything in the future, it will be similar to what you've seen over the last several years with the smaller builders that give us a solid platform and are a good fit to us in markets.

我們將繼續關注市場上的各種機會。我認為，我們一直以來更關注的是抓住機會，擴大我們在特定市場的產能，或進入某個市場。但我們會繼續對這些情況進行評估。我認為，未來發展趨勢將與過去幾年我們所看到的類似，即那些規模較小的建築商為我們提供了一個堅實的平台，並且在市場上與我們非常契合。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research.

Ken Zener，Seaport Research。

Paul, with orders up 3%, there's a community count effect there, but a lot of details asked today, but my basic question is this. Demand is there. You need to offer some incentives, but demand is there amid very low job growth.

Paul，訂單量增加了 3%，這其中肯定有社群數量的影響，但今天問了很多細節問題，但我最基本的問題是這樣的。需求是存在的。你需要提供一些激勵措施，但即便就業成長非常緩慢，需求依然存在。

For example, Dallas, you're familiar with, job growth is around 30,000 year-over-year, it's well less than half the long-term rate, yet you're still seeing demand. Can you talk to like where that demand is coming from amid such low job growth that we're seeing, it's not just Dallas, it's in many different markets, yet you guys are still seeing activity? Is that -- do we really need job growth to normalize to get your margins in a more stable upward slope?

例如，你很熟悉的達拉斯，每年新增就業人數約 3 萬個，遠低於長期成長率的一半，但仍有需求。能否談談在就業成長如此低迷的情況下，你們的需求來自哪裡？這種情況不僅發生在達拉斯，而是在許多不同的市場，但你們仍然看到市場活躍？也就是說——我們真的需要就業成長正常化才能讓利潤率呈現更穩定的上升趨勢嗎？

I think job growth is always going to be key to overall household formation and the demand side of our business. There's no question there. I do believe that we are seeing, continue to see some pent-up demand. And as people grow, and especially for our buyers, for the first-time home buyer, that have delayed that home purchase decision and making the decision today to come out of an apartment and/or out of their parents' home, it makes it a little less reliant on seeing just pure job growth to create household formation in some of MSAs that we operate in. So I do think it's a balance. I think, long term, we absolutely need to see job growth and continued job growth if we want to see growth in overall housing demand.

我認為就業成長始終是家庭整體形成和我們業務需求的關鍵因素。這點毋庸置疑。我相信我們正在看到，並將繼續看到一些被壓抑的需求。隨著人們的成長，尤其是對於我們的買家，尤其是首次購房者而言，他們推遲了購房決定，而現在決定離開公寓和/或父母家，這使得在我們運營的一些大都會統計區，家庭組建不再僅僅依賴於純粹的就業增長。所以我認為這是一種平衡。我認為，從長遠來看，如果我們想要看到整體住房需求的成長，就絕對需要看到就業成長和持續的就業成長。

Right. And can you kind of comment that -- I mean it's AI and many different things today, the 10-year is up 5 or 6 basis points again. But do you feel like we're really flowing forward just from that quote, pent-up demand that didn't occur? Because it's quite odd that we're seeing demand so strong when the job growth has been so weak. And it begs the question of, right, what if it stays weak, do you pull -- have you tapped essentially your demand that was there not tied to job growth? I'm just trying to figure it out because -- do you know what -- what do your people say when you don't have really good job growth yet housing demand is there?

正確的。您能否就此發表一下看法——我的意思是，如今人工智慧和許多其他因素都發揮了作用，10 年期公債殖利率再次上漲了 5 到 6 個基點。但你覺得我們真的僅僅因為那句話，也就是沒有實現的被壓抑的需求，就向前邁進了一大步嗎？因為就業成長如此疲軟，需求卻如此強勁，這確實很奇怪。這就引出了一個問題，對吧？如果經濟成長持續疲軟，你是否已經挖掘出了與就業成長無關的根本需求？我只是想弄清楚，因為——你知道嗎——當就業成長不理想但住房需求旺盛時，你們的人們會怎麼說？

Well, I think it's why we continue to prefer our focus on the entry-level and first-time buyer because they're a need-based buyer. Everyone needs a place to live. And so if we can strike that right affordability balance, they might need a little bit of help in terms of gift funds from parents or relatives. We continue to see just shy of 20% of our buyers utilizing our mortgage company are utilizing gift funds to make that purchase. But the lower the price point we can put houses on the ground at, the more buyers that are out there. Because once again, a first-time buyer needs a place to live. If we can be competitive with rent, they're still interested in that home purchase.

我認為這就是為什麼我們仍然更傾向於關注入門級和首次購房者的原因，因為他們是按需購房者。每個人都需要一個住處。因此，如果我們能夠找到合適的負擔能力平衡點，他們可能需要父母或親戚的贈款幫助。我們發現，在我們公司抵押貸款的客戶中，仍有近 20% 的人使用贈款進行購房。但是，我們能把房子建得越便宜，市場上的買家就越多。因為歸根究底，首次購屋者需要一個住處。如果我們能在租金方面保持競爭力，他們仍然會對購屋感興趣。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

Jade Rahmani，KBW。

If rates do move lower, do you think homebuilders will choose to pass along that saving to buyers rather than take margins in the hopes that that would stimulate demand further?

如果利率真的下降，你認為房屋建築商會選擇將節省下來的成本讓利給購屋者，而不是賺取利潤，希望以此進一步刺激需求嗎？

I think we continue to see a balance to meet the consumer where they are relative to the rate environment. And it would be a -- can you spur additional demand and drive more pace, more units, if that's going to be the most incrementally positive lever we can pull on returns, and we would go in that direction. If it's a community where there's more scarcity of supply, it might result in an improvement in margins.

我認為我們將繼續保持平衡，以滿足消費者在當前利率環境下的需求。如果刺激額外需求、加快生產速度、增加產量是提高回報最有效的手段，那麼我們將朝著這個方向努力。如果某個社區的供應比較稀缺，那麼利潤率可能會提高。

Even with our increased incentives though in the December quarter, we kept our lowest 30-year fixed-rate offering at 3.99%. And so we would have the ability, to Mike's point, we'd always choose to go lower if rates move lower and it could cost us the same, or if demand is just picking up and we don't need to move lower on that rate offering, we won't. But we did in the December quarter stay with 3.99% as the lowest 30-year fixed rate buydown we were offering.

儘管我們在 12 月增加了激勵措施，但我們仍將最低的 30 年期固定利率維持在 3.99%。因此，正如麥克所說，我們有能力選擇降低利率，如果利率下降，成本不變，或者如果需求只是回升，我們不需要降低利率，我們就不會降低利率。但在 12 月季度，我們仍然維持 3.99% 作為我們提供的最低 30 年期固定利率買斷利率。

And with 64% first-time homebuyer in your mortgage company, could you give any color as to whether you think an allowance of 401(k) savings to be used for deposit down-payment would move the needle at all? Could that be material? Or do you think it's unlikely to be so?

貴公司有 64% 的客戶是首次購屋者，您能否就允許使用 401(k) 儲蓄支付首付是否會對購屋市場產生任何影響發表一些看法？那會是材料嗎？或者你認為不太可能是這樣？

I think anything that opens up the ability of people to either get to a monthly payment and/or get to down-payment, which are the 2 things, especially for a first-time homebuyer, that we need to solve for, right, it's getting to a monthly payment that they're comfortable with, can and should afford, as well as the down payment that they need to purchase a home.

我認為任何能夠幫助人們支付每月付款和/或支付首付的措施都是值得提倡的，因為對於首次購屋者來說，這兩件事正是我們需要解決的。關鍵在於讓他們能夠負擔得起、也應該負擔得起的月供，以及購買房屋所需的首付。

So we absolutely think it will be helpful. To what level? We'll see what gets put forward in terms of policy and how that plays out. But anything that we see to help get people moving, not just new home market but in the resale market as well, we believe is accretive to our performance.

所以我們絕對認為這會有幫助。達到什麼程度？我們將拭目以待，看看政策方面會提出什麼方案，以及最終結果如何。但我們認為，任何有助於人們搬家的事情，不僅是新房市場，還有二手房市場，都會對我們的業績有所好處。

Alex Barrón, Housing Research Center.

Alex Barrón，住房研究中心。

I just wanted to confirm the volume guide you guys are giving, is that just for the wholly owned communities? Or does that also include the homes you guys are doing in rental communities?

我只是想確認你們提供的音量指南，那是不是只適用於完全自有社群？或者，這是否也包括你們在出租社區建造的房屋？

Sure, Alex. Our home closings guide for the year is for -- by our homebuilding operations, so it does not include single-family rental, but our revenue guide for the full year is consolidated revenues. So would anticipate our rental revenue included in that.

當然可以，亞歷克斯。我們今年的房屋成交量指南是針對我們的房屋建造業務的，因此不包括單戶住宅租賃，但我們全年的收入指南是合併收入。因此，預計我們的租金收入也包含在其中。

Got it. And I wanted to ask on the margin guidance. Was that mainly driven by offering higher incentives in the way of rate buydowns or more like in the way of price cuts?

知道了。我想諮詢保證金指引。這主要是透過提供更高的激勵措施（例如利率下調或降價）來推動的嗎？

Mostly incentives based on buydowns and based on the level of buydowns and incentive costs we were seeing as we exited Q1 really driving the Q2 levels.

主要激勵措施是基於買入，而我們在第一季末看到的買入和激勵成本水平，真正推動了第二季度的水平。

Okay. And if I could ask one last one. Are you guys starting to feel any impact from tariffs and materials costs?

好的。我可以問最後一個問題嗎？你們開始感受到關稅和原料成本的影響了嗎？

No. We still haven't taken any significant or noticeable increase in the material due to a tariff.

不。由於關稅，我們尚未面臨材料成本的顯著或明顯上漲。

Thank you. This does conclude today's Q&A session. I will now hand the call back to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話交還給保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基，請他作總結發言。

Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our second quarter results on Tuesday, April 21. Congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family on achieving a solid first quarter. We are honored to represent you on this call and greatly appreciate all that you do.

謝謝你，保羅。感謝大家今天抽空參加電話會議，我們期待在4月21日星期二再次與大家通話，分享我們第二季的業績。恭喜D.R. Horton全體員工第一季業績穩健。我們很榮幸能代表您參加此電話會議，並衷心感謝您所做的一切。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。您可以在此時斷開線路。感謝您的參與