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Operator
Operator
Good morning and welcome to the third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder. (Operator Instructions)
早安,歡迎參加美國建築商 D.R. Horton 的 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)
I would now like to turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.
現在我想將電話轉給 D.R. Horton 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Thank you, Matthew, and good morning.
謝謝你,馬修,早安。
Welcome to our call to discuss our financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Form Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.
歡迎參加我們的電話會議,討論我們 2025 財年第三季的財務表現。在我們開始之前,今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟形式法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管 D.R. Horton 認為任何此類聲明都是基於合理的假設,但不能保證實際結果不會有重大差異。
All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. Horton 在本次電話會議當天掌握的信息,D.R. Horton 不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關可能導致業績發生重大變化的因素的更多信息,請參閱 D.R. Horton 的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表最新季度報告,這兩份報告均已提交給美國證券交易委員會。
This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q later this week. After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference.
今天早上的收益報告可以在我們的網站 investor.drhorton.com 上找到,我們計劃在本週稍後提交 10-Q 報表。本次電話會議結束後,我們將在投資者關係網站的「新聞和事件」下的「簡報」部分發布更新的投資者和補充資料演示文稿,供您參考。
Now, I will turn the call over to Paul Romanowski, our President and CEO.
現在,我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Paul Romanowski。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Jessica, and good morning.
謝謝你,潔西卡,早安。
I'm pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The D.R. Horton team exceeded our expectations and delivered solid results for the third quarter, highlighted by earnings of $3.36 per diluted share.
我很高興我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Mike Murray 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Wheat 也參加這次電話會議。D.R. Horton 團隊超出了我們的預期,並在第三季度取得了穩健的業績,其中每股收益為 3.36 美元。
Our consolidated pretax income was $1.4 billion on $9.2 billion of revenues with a pretax profit margin of 14.7%. Our net sales orders in the third quarter were flat with the prior year quarter and increased 3% sequentially. Our tenured operators continue to respond to market conditions with discipline balancing pace versus price to maximize returns in each of our communities, achieving 23,160 homes closed this quarter with a home sales gross margin of 21.8%, both of which were above our guidance range.
我們的綜合稅前收入為 14 億美元,營收為 92 億美元,稅前利潤率為 14.7%。我們第三季的淨銷售訂單與去年同期持平,較上季成長 3%。我們的長期營運商繼續根據市場情況做出反應,在速度和價格之間取得平衡,以在每個社區實現回報最大化,本季度實現 23,160 套房屋銷售,房屋銷售毛利率為 21.8%,均高於我們的指導範圍。
We remain focused on maximizing capital efficiency to generate substantial operating cash flows and deliver compelling returns to our shareholders. Over the past 12 months, we have generated $2.9 billion of cash from operations, and we have returned $4.6 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends. For the trailing 12 months ended June 30, our homebuilding pretax return on inventory was 22.1%, while our consolidated returns on equity and assets were 16.1% and 11.1%.
我們始終致力於最大限度地提高資本效率,以產生大量的經營現金流並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。在過去的 12 個月中,我們從營運中產生了 29 億美元的現金,並透過回購和股息向股東返還了 46 億美元。截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月,我們的房屋建築稅前庫存回報率為 22.1%,而我們的綜合股本和資產回報率分別為 16.1% 和 11.1%。
Our return on assets ranks in the top 15% of all S&P 500 companies for the past 3-, 5- and 10-year periods, demonstrating that our disciplined, returns-focused operating model produces sustainable results and positions us well for continued value creation.
在過去 3 年、5 年和 10 年內,我們的資產回報率在標準普爾 500 指數公司中均位居前 15%,這表明我們嚴謹的、以回報為中心的營運模式能夠產生可持續的成果,並為我們持續創造價值做好準備。
New home demand continues to be impacted by ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment. Where necessary, we have increased incentives to drive traffic and incremental sales. Our cancellation rate remains at the low end of our historical range, indicating that buyers in today's market are able to qualify financially and are committed to their home purchase despite the volatility and uncertainty of the current economic environment.
新房需求持續受到持續的負擔能力限制和謹慎的消費者情緒的影響。在必要時,我們會加強激勵力度,以推動流量和增量銷售。我們的取消率仍然處於歷史低位,這表明儘管當前經濟環境動盪且不確定,但當今市場的買家仍然具備財務資格並致力於購房。
We expect our sales incentives to remain elevated and increased further during the fourth quarter, the extent to which will depend on the strength of demand, changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions. With 54% of our third quarter closings also sold in the same quarter, our sales, incentive levels, and gross margin are generally representative of current market conditions. We will continue to tailor our product offerings, utilize sales incentives and adjust the number of homes and inventory based on demand in each of our markets. We are well positioned, offering our customers an attractive value proposition with quality homes at affordable price points, and we have a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term.
我們預計,第四季度我們的銷售獎勵措施將繼續提高並進一步增加,具體幅度取決於需求強度、抵押貸款利率的變化和其他市場條件。由於我們第三季的成交量有 54% 也在同一季度售出,我們的銷售額、激勵水準和毛利率大體上代表了當前的市場狀況。我們將繼續客製化我們的產品,利用銷售激勵措施,並根據每個市場的需求調整房屋和庫存數量。我們擁有良好的定位,能夠以實惠的價格為客戶提供具有吸引力的價值主張和優質的住宅,並且我們對中長期房地產市場持樂觀態度。
Mike.
麥克風。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2025 were $3.36 per diluted share compared to $4.10 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter was $1 billion on consolidated revenues of $9.2 billion. Our third quarter home sales revenues were $8.6 billion on 23,160 homes closed compared to $9.2 billion on 24,155 homes closed in the prior year quarter. Our average closing price for the quarter was $369,600, down 1% sequentially and down 3% year over year. Bill?
2025 財年第三季每股攤薄收益為 3.36 美元,去年同期每股攤薄收益為 4.10 美元。本季淨收入為 10 億美元,綜合營收為 92 億美元。我們第三季的房屋銷售收入為 86 億美元,售出房屋 23,160 套,而去年同期的房屋銷售收入為 92 億美元,售出房屋 24,155 套。本季我們的平均收盤價為 369,600 美元,季減 1%,年減 3%。帳單?
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
For the third quarter, our net sales orders of 23,071 homes were flat with the prior year quarter, while order value decreased 3% to $8.4 billion. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 17%, up from 16% sequentially, and down from 18% in the prior year quarter. Our average number of active selling communities was up 4% sequentially and up 12% year over year. The average price of net sales orders in the third quarter was $365,100, which was down 2% sequentially and down 4% from the prior year quarter.
第三季度,我們的淨銷售訂單為 23,071 套房屋,與去年同期持平,而訂單價值下降 3% 至 84 億美元。本季的取消率為 17%,高於上一季的 16%,低於去年同期的 18%。我們活躍銷售社群的平均數量較上季成長 4%,較去年同期成長 12%。第三季淨銷售訂單平均價格為365,100美元,季減2%,季減4%。
Jessica.
傑西卡。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the third quarter was 21.8%, which was flat sequentially and above our expectations. Although our home sales gross margin was stable from the second to third quarter, our incentive costs have increased on recent sales, so we expect our home sales gross margin to be lower in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Our actual incentive levels and home sales gross margin for the fourth quarter will be dependent on the strength of demand, changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions.
我們第三季房屋銷售收入的毛利率為21.8%,與上一季持平,且高於我們的預期。雖然我們的房屋銷售毛利率從第二季到第三季保持穩定,但近期銷售的激勵成本有所增加,因此我們預計第四季度的房屋銷售毛利率將低於第三季。我們第四季的實際激勵水準和房屋銷售毛利率將取決於需求強度、抵押貸款利率的變化和其他市場條件。
Bill.
帳單。
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
In the third quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expenses increased 2% from last year, and homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.8%, up 70 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year. Our community count is up 12%, and our market cap has increased 4% to 126 markets in 36 states. The investments we have made in our team and platform position us to continue producing strong returns, cash flow and market share gains, while remaining focused on managing our SG&A costs efficiently across our operations.
第三季度,我們的房屋建築銷售、一般及行政費用比去年同期增加了 2%,房屋建築銷售、一般及行政費用佔收入的百分比為 7.8%,比去年同期增加了 70 個基點。我們的社區數量增加了 12%,我們的市值增加了 4%,達到 36 個州的 126 個市場。我們對團隊和平台的投資使我們能夠繼續產生強勁的回報、現金流量和市場份額成長,同時繼續專注於在整個營運過程中有效管理銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A)。
Paul.
保羅。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We started 24,700 homes in the June quarter, up 24% sequentially from the second quarter, and we expect our starts in the fourth quarter to be lower than the third quarter. We ended the quarter with 38,400 homes inventory, of which 25,000 were unsold. 7,300 of our unsold homes at quarter end were completed, down 1,100 homes from March. 800 of our unsold homes have been completed for greater than 6 months.
我們在六月季度開工了 24,700 套房屋,比第二季度環比增長 24%,我們預計第四季度的開工量將低於第三季。本季末,我們的房屋庫存為 38,400 套,其中 25,000 套未售出。季度末,我們的未售出房屋中有 7,300 套已經完工,比 3 月減少了 1,100 套。我們的未售出房屋中有 800 套已經完工超過 6 個月。
For homes we closed in the third quarter, our construction cycle times improved several days from the second quarter and approximately two weeks from a year ago. Our improved cycle times position us to turn our housing inventory faster, and we will continue to manage our homes and inventory and start pace based on market conditions.
對於我們在第三季成交的房屋,我們的施工週期比第二季縮短了幾天,比去年同期縮短了大約兩週。我們改進的週期時間使我們能夠更快地週轉房屋庫存,並且我們將繼續管理我們的房屋和庫存,並根據市場情況開始步伐。
Mike.
麥克風。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Our homebuilding lock position at June 30 consisted of approximately 600,000 lots, of which 24% were owned and 76% were controlled through purchase contracts. We are actively managing our investments in lots, land and development based on current market conditions. During the quarter, our homebuilding segment incurred $16 million of inventory impairments and wrote off $36 million of option deposits and due diligence costs related to land and lot purchase contracts.
截至 6 月 30 日,我們的房屋建築鎖倉約為 60 萬手,其中 24% 為自有,76% 透過購買合約控制。我們根據目前的市場狀況積極管理對地塊、土地和開發的投資。本季度,我們的房屋建築部門發生了 1600 萬美元的庫存減值,並註銷了 3600 萬美元的期權押金和與土地和地塊購買合約相關的盡職調查成本。
We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to allow us to build more homes on lots developed by others, which enhances our capital efficiency, returns and operational flexibility. Of the homes we closed this quarter, 66% were in a lot developed by either Forestar or a third party, up from 64% in the prior year quarter.
我們仍然專注於與全國各地的土地開發商建立關係,以便我們能夠在其他人開發的地塊上建造更多房屋,從而提高我們的資本效率、回報和營運靈活性。本季我們成交的房屋中,66% 位於由 Forestar 或第三方開發的地塊,高於去年同期的 64%。
Our third-quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land, and development totaled $2.2 billion, of which $1.4 billion was for finished lots, $610 million was for land development and $140 million was for land acquisition.
我們第三季在地塊、土地和開發方面的房屋建築投資總計 22 億美元,其中 14 億美元用於竣工地塊,6.1 億美元用於土地開發,1.4 億美元用於土地收購。
Paul.
保羅。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
In the third quarter, our rental operations generated $55 million of pretax income on $381 million of revenues from the sale of 1,065 single-family rental homes and 328 multifamily rental units. Our rental property inventory at June 30 was $3.1 billion, which consisted of $2.5 billion of multifamily rental properties and $668 million of single-family rental properties. We remain focused on improving the capital efficiency and returns of our rental operations.
第三季度,我們的租賃業務透過銷售 1,065 套單戶租賃住宅和 328 套多戶租賃單元,創造了 5,500 萬美元的稅前收入,總收入為 3.81 億美元。截至 6 月 30 日,我們的租賃物業庫存為 31 億美元,其中包括 25 億美元的多戶型租賃物業和 6.68 億美元的單戶型租賃物業。我們仍致力於提高租賃業務的資本效率和回報。
Jessica.
傑西卡。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company, reported revenues for the third quarter of $391 million on 3,605 lots sold with pretax income of $44 million. Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at June 30 was 102,000 lots. 63% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $320 million of our finished lots purchased in the third quarter were from Forestar.
Forestar 是我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司,該公司報告第三季收入為 3.91 億美元,售出 3,605 塊地塊,稅前收入為 4,400 萬美元。截至 6 月 30 日,Forestar 擁有和控制的地塊數量為 102,000 塊。 Forestar 擁有的地塊中有 63% 與 D.R. Horton 簽訂了合約或享有優先購買權。我們在第三季從 Forestar 購買了價值 3.2 億美元的成品地塊。
Forestar had $790 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 28.9%. Our strategic relationship with Forestar is a vital component of our returns-focused business model. Forestar's strong, separately capitalized balance sheet, substantial operating platform and lot supply position them well to consistently provide a central finished lots to the homebuilding industry and aggregate significant market share.
截至本季末,Forestar 的流動資金為 7.9 億美元,淨負債資本比率為 28.9%。我們與 Forestar 的策略關係是我們以回報為中心的商業模式的重要組成部分。Forestar 擁有強大的、獨立資本化的資產負債表、龐大的營運平台和地塊供應,這使其能夠持續為住宅建築業提供中央成品地塊,並累積顯著的市場份額。
Mike.
麥克風。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Financial services pretax income for the third quarter was $81 million on $228 million of revenues, resulting in a pretax profit margin of 35.7%. During the third quarter, our mortgage company handled the financing for 81% of our homebuyers. Borrowers originating loans with DHI mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 720 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 90%. First time homebuyers represented 64% of the closings handled by a mortgage company this quarter.
第三季金融服務稅前收入為 8,100 萬美元,營收為 2.28 億美元,稅前利潤率為 35.7%。第三季度,我們的抵押貸款公司為 81% 的購屋者辦理了融資。本季透過 DHI 抵押貸款發放的借款人的平均 FICO 分數為 720,平均貸款價值比為 90%。本季度,首次購屋者佔抵押貸款公司處理的成交量的 64%。
Bill.
帳單。
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Our capital allocation strategy is disciplined and balanced to support an operating platform that produces compelling returns and substantial operating cash flows. We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and healthy liquidity, which provides us with significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities. During the first 9 months of the year, homebuilding cash provided by operations was $1.7 billion, and consolidated cash provided by operations was $950 million. At June 30, we had $5.5 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $2.6 billion of cash and $2.9 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities.
我們的資本配置策略嚴謹且均衡,以支援產生可觀回報和大量營運現金流的營運平台。我們的資產負債表強勁,槓桿率低,流動性健康,這為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性,以適應不斷變化的市場條件和機會。今年前 9 個月,房屋建築經營活動提供的現金為 17 億美元,合併經營活動提供的現金為 9.5 億美元。截至 6 月 30 日,我們的綜合流動資金為 55 億美元,其中包括 26 億美元現金和 29 億美元信貸額度可用容量。
In May, we issued $500 million of homebuilding senior notes due 2030. And in June, we increased the capacity of our homebuilding revolving credit facility to $2.3 billion. Debt at the end of the quarter totaled $7.2 billion with $500 million of homebuilding senior notes maturing in the next 12 months.
5 月份,我們發行了價值 5 億美元的 2030 年到期的房屋建築優先票據。6 月份,我們將房屋建築循環信貸額度提高至 23 億美元。本季末的債務總額為 72 億美元,其中 5 億美元的房屋建築優先票據將在未來 12 個月內到期。
Our consolidated leverage at June 30 was 23.2%, and we plan to maintain our leverage around 20% over the long term. At June 30, our stockholders' equity was $24.1 billion, and book value per share was $80.46, up 7% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended June 30, our return on equity was 16.1% and our return on assets was 11.1%.
我們6月30日的合併槓桿率為23.2%,我們計畫長期維持槓桿率約20%。截至 6 月 30 日,我們的股東權益為 241 億美元,每股帳面價值為 80.46 美元,比去年同期成長 7%。截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月,我們的股本回報率為 16.1%,資產回報率為 11.1%。
During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $0.40 per share totaling $122 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level to be paid in August. We repurchased 9.7 million shares of common stock during the quarter for $1.2 billion, and our fiscal year-to-date stock repurchases were $3.6 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 9% from a year ago. Our remaining share repurchase authorization at June 30 was $4 billion.
在本季度,我們支付了每股 0.40 美元的現金股息,總計 1.22 億美元,董事會已宣布將於 8 月份支付相同水準的季度股息。我們在本季回購了 970 萬股普通股,回購金額為 12 億美元,而本財年迄今的股票回購金額為 36 億美元,這使我們的流通股數量較去年同期減少了 9%。截至 6 月 30 日,我們剩餘的股票回購授權為 40 億美元。
Jessica.
傑西卡。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues in the range of $9.1 billion to $9.6 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 23,500 to 24,000 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin for the fourth quarter to be in the range of 21% to 21.5% and our consolidated pretax profit margin to be in the range of 13.6% to 14.1%.
展望第四季度,我們目前預計綜合收入將在 91 億美元至 96 億美元之間,房屋建築業務完工數量將在 23,500 至 24,000 套之間。我們預計第四季度房屋銷售毛利率在 21% 至 21.5% 之間,綜合稅前利潤率在 13.6% 至 14.1% 之間。
For the full year of fiscal 2025, we now expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $33.7 billion to $34.2 billion, and home closed for our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 85,000 to 85,500 homes. We still forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2025 of approximately 24%. Based on our fiscal year-to-date share repurchases, strong financial position and expected operating cash flows of greater than $3 billion, we now plan to repurchase $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion of our common stock in fiscal 2025, subject to the amount of cash flow generated and share price changes during the fourth quarter.
對於 2025 財年全年,我們目前預計綜合收入約為 337 億美元至 342 億美元,房屋建築業務的待售房屋數量將在 85,000 至 85,500 套之間。我們仍預測 2025 財年的所得稅率約為 24%。根據我們財年迄今的股票回購情況、強勁的財務狀況和預期超過 30 億美元的經營現金流,我們現在計劃在 2025 財年回購 42 億至 44 億美元的普通股,但具體金額取決於第四季度產生的現金流和股價變化。
Paul.
保羅。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and focus on delivering quality homes at affordable price points. All of these are key components of our operating platform that support our ability to generate substantial operating cash flows and return capital to shareholders while continuing to aggregate market share. We recognize the current volatility and uncertainty in the economy, and we'll continue to adjust mark to market conditions in a disciplined manner to enhance the long-term value of our company.
最後,我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理覆蓋範圍以及專注於以實惠的價格提供優質住宅。所有這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分,支持我們產生大量營運現金流並向股東返還資本,同時繼續擴大市場份額。我們認識到當前經濟的波動性和不確定性,我們將繼續以嚴謹的方式根據市場情況進行調整,以提高公司的長期價值。
Looking ahead, we expect a solid finish to our fiscal year, and we have a positive outlook for the housing market over the medium to long term. Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work.
展望未來,我們預計本財年將圓滿成功,並且我們對中長期房地產市場持樂觀態度。感謝 D.R. Horton 全體員工、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人的持續努力和辛勤工作。
This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.
我們的準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.
(操作員指示)Alan Ratner,Zelman & Associates。
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Congrats on the really strong results in a challenging market, really Impressive. First question, I guess, on the incentives first. You guided for an uptick here in the fourth quarter. Just curious if you can kind of talk through how incentives have trended through the quarter and into July? And how much of that increase is based on competitive pressures you're seeing from other builders in terms of trying to match them to maintain a certain sales pace versus you going out and trying to accelerate the level of activity a little bit?
恭喜您在充滿挑戰的市場中取得如此出色的成績,真的令人印象深刻。我想,第一個問題首先是關於激勵措施。您預計第四季會出現上漲。我只是好奇,您是否可以談談本季和七月的激勵措施趨勢如何?這種增長有多少是基於您看到的來自其他建築商的競爭壓力,即您試圖與他們匹敵以保持一定的銷售速度,還是您走出去並試圖加快活動水平?
And what I'm looking at specifically is your start pace which did increase pretty meaningfully sequentially in the fiscal third quarter.
我特別關注的是你們的啟動速度,它在第三財季確實連續顯著增加。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, Alan. I think the incentives throughout the quarter were a bit choppy, and we've responded to the market. And in terms of competition, that kind of flows market to market. We look to maintain, and we're able to exceed our guidance on closings, and that really comes from our operators at a community level, managing their incentives to drive that result. That being said, as we work through the end of spring and deep into the summer selling season, our incentives have increased some to maintain our pace, which is going to allow us to maintain our guidance at 85, 000 to 85,500 for the year. So we feel good about our position so far in the quarter.
是的,艾倫。我認為整個季度的激勵措施有點不穩定,我們已經對市場做出了反應。就競爭而言,這種流動是從一個市場流向另一個市場的。我們希望維持並能夠超越我們對關閉的指導,而這實際上來自於我們社區層面的營運商,管理他們的激勵措施以推動這一結果。話雖如此,隨著我們進入春季末期和夏季銷售旺季,我們的激勵措施有所增加,以保持我們的步伐,這將使我們能夠將全年的指導目標保持在 85,000 至 85,500 之間。因此,我們對本季迄今的狀況感到滿意。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
And while it starts increased in the quarter, they were basically aligned. Trailing 6 months starts and trailing 6-month sales were almost the same number, kind of bringing those back in alignment.
儘管本季開始增加,但它們基本上是一致的。過去 6 個月的開工數和過去 6 個月的銷售額幾乎相同,這在某種程度上使它們重新保持一致。
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Alan Ratner - Analyst
Got it. Yes. I noticed that. Obviously, it pulled back quite a bit in the first half of the year, so it makes sense.
知道了。是的。我注意到了。顯然,今年上半年它回落了不少,所以這是有道理的。
Second question, just on the overall consumer. These aren't big changes, but if I look at some of the disclosures you gave on the mortgage side, it looks like the average FICO score of your buyer is down about 5 points year-over-year. It's the lowest it's been in quite a while. LTV -- combined LTV is ticking higher as well. So just any commentary you can give on the strength of the consumer today and if you are seeing any impact at all from student loan repayments resuming and being reported to the credit agencies?
第二個問題,僅關於整體消費者。這些並不是很大的變化,但如果我看一下您在抵押貸款方面提供的一些披露,看起來買家的平均 FICO 分數同比下降了約 5 分。這是相當長一段時間以來的最低水準。LTV—綜合 LTV 也逐漸上升。那麼,您能否對當今消費者的實力做出任何評論?您是否看到學生貸款償還恢復並報告給信用機構有任何影響?
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
We're seeing more of our buyers selecting that Phase A product, and we've probably been very heavily incentivizing that FHA product, offering at 3.99, probably our most attractive interest rate on the FHA. So that's led more buyers to select that program. Not seeing a lot of impact at this point on the student loan area.
我們看到越來越多的買家選擇 A 階段產品,我們可能對 FHA 產品進行了大力激勵,提供 3.99 的利率,這可能是 FHA 上最具吸引力的利率。因此,這導致更多買家選擇該計劃。目前看來,學生貸款領域並未受到太大影響。
Operator
Operator
John Lovallo, UBS.
瑞銀的約翰·洛瓦洛。
John Lovallo - Analyst
John Lovallo - Analyst
So the fourth quarter gross margin outlook of 21% to 21.5% is similar to what you put out there for the third quarter, which you obviously beat by 30 basis points. Curious on that beat, was that just a little bit more volume than you expected? What sort of drove the beat? And then in terms of the fourth quarter guide, is it really just the incentive load that -- or the potential incentive load that could drive that lower? Or are you seeing anything change in terms of sticker break or land cost, things of that nature?
因此,第四季的毛利率預期為 21% 至 21.5%,與第三季的預期相似,顯然高出了 30 個基點。對那個節拍感到好奇,它的音量是否比你預期的要大一點?是什麼推動了節奏?那麼就第四季指南而言,真的只是激勵負荷——還是潛在的激勵負荷可能導致其降低?或者您看到價格下跌或土地成本等方面有任何變化?
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes, John, in the third quarter, as Paul mentioned, our incentives were a bit choppy during the quarter. So as -- a quarter ago, as we looked into Q3, we were seeing the potential for needing to increase incentives through the quarter. As it turned out, it was a little more balanced and it didn't impact the closings and the margins quite as quickly in the quarter as we anticipated a quarter ago. So some margins were flat. But we still, as we sit here today, see a trend of higher incentives.
是的,約翰,正如保羅所提到的,在第三季度,我們的激勵措施有點不穩定。因此,正如一個季度前,當我們展望第三季度時,我們發現可能需要在整個季度增加激勵措施。事實證明,它更加平衡,並且沒有像我們一個季度前預期的那樣迅速影響本季的收盤價和利潤率。因此一些利潤率是持平的。但今天我們坐在這裡,我們仍然看到激勵措施不斷提高的趨勢。
Our recent sales and currently our sales and backlog do reflect higher cost of incentives. And so the closings that we see into July, August, September, we do expect margins to take that step down that we had previously anticipated would occur in Q3.
我們最近的銷售額以及目前的銷售額和積壓訂單確實反映了更高的激勵成本。因此,從 7 月、8 月和 9 月的收盤情況來看,我們確實預期利潤率會下降,而我們先前預期第三季的利潤率將會下降。
John Lovallo - Analyst
John Lovallo - Analyst
Understood. And then, yes, it was good to see the share repurchase authorization or the assumption raise from about $4 billion to 4Q to $4.4 billion. I mean what sort of drove the decision to move that higher?
明白了。是的,很高興看到股票回購授權或假設從第四季的約 40 億美元上升至 44 億美元。我的意思是,是什麼促使你做出提高這數字的決定?
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
It's always a balance between what we see in terms of our cash flow, our liquidity level, our leverage on our balance sheet, and we're in our target range there. And so we've had the room to be able to devote a bit more capital to the share repurchase this year. Obviously, with where our share price has been, we feel like the valuation is attractive, and so we're taking advantage of that during this time. And so the step-up in the annual level is really just within our target range for our balance sheet.
我們的現金流量、流動性水準、資產負債表上的槓桿率始終保持平衡,並且處於我們的目標範圍內。因此,我們今年有空間投入更多資金用於股票回購。顯然,考慮到我們的股價,我們認為估值很有吸引力,因此我們會在這段時間利用這一點。因此,年度水準的提升其實剛好在我們的資產負債表目標範圍內。
Operator
Operator
Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.
史蒂芬金 (Stephen Kim),Evercore ISI。
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
I just want to say, I mean, I think that gross margin guide is a lot better than many had feared. So we're pretty excited about that. I want to talk about your SG&A to start off with. You had pretty good or strong overhead control. I kind of beat you up about last quarter a little bit because it was high.
我只是想說,我認為毛利率指南比很多人擔心的要好得多。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。首先我想談談你們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A)。您的開銷控制相當好或強。我有點打擊你了,因為上個季度的水平很高。
I was wondering, was there anything unusual in the quarter this time? And then from a long-term perspective, is kind of the mid-7s still kind of a good long-term target for SG&A?
我想知道,這個季度有什麼不尋常的事情嗎?那麼從長遠來看,7%左右的水平對於銷售、一般和行政費用來說是否仍然是一個好的長期目標?
And then finally, on SG&A, I think you had said previously that SG&A is kind of sensitive to ASP, and so with your ASP, your average selling price coming down, should we expect this to put some near-term pressure on your SG&A?
最後,關於銷售、一般和行政費用,我想您之前說過,銷售、一般和行政費用對平均售價很敏感,所以隨著您的平均售價(即平均售價)下降,我們是否應該預期這會對您的銷售、一般和行政費用造成一些短期壓力?
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Sure, Steve. The beat on SG&A is really a function of closings, higher closings volume. Even though our ASP was down, our closings did exceed our expectations. In terms of where we expect our SG&A to be over the long term, I do think 7% to 8%, somewhere in that range. We're always away from that on an annual basis right now.
當然,史蒂夫。銷售、一般及行政開支 (SG&A) 的節拍實際上取決於收盤價、更高的收盤價量。儘管我們的平均銷售價格下降,但我們的成交量確實超出了我們的預期。就我們預期的長期銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 水平而言,我確實認為會在 7% 到 8% 之間,在這個範圍內。就目前而言,我們每年都遠離這個目標。
To your point, when we have significant price appreciation, say, back in 2022, that does really good things for SG&A leverage. So our SG&A improvement from here on an annual basis is probably going to be pretty gradual, but we would expect to continue to make improvements in that in the future years.
正如您所說,當價格大幅上漲時,比如說在 2022 年,這對銷售、一般和行政費用槓桿率確實有好處。因此,從現在起,我們的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 年度改善可能會相當緩慢,但我們預計未來幾年將繼續取得進展。
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Stephen Kim - Equity Analyst
Yes. I appreciate that, Jessica. I do note, though, that you're -- actually, hold on, sorry, I'm having some tech issues. I do notice that your closings while they were a little better than maybe what you thought they -- you actually performed quite well, given that things on a year-over-year basis were still down in terms of closing. So it certainly seems like you've got a good control on your SG&A.
是的。我很感激,潔西卡。不過,我確實注意到你——實際上,等等,抱歉,我遇到了一些技術問題。我確實注意到,雖然你們的收盤價比你們想像的要好一些——但考慮到與去年同期相比收盤價仍然有所下降,你們的表現實際上相當不錯。因此看起來您對銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的控制確實很好。
The second question I had regards your ROE and your cash conversion. I think you had said when we last met that you were targeting cash flow conversion of maybe 100%, which I think some folks have had a little bit of difficulty getting to.
我的第二個問題是關於您的 ROE 和現金轉換率。我想您上次我們見面時說過,您的目標現金流轉換率可能是 100%,但我認為有些人實現這個目標有點困難。
And you -- I think we're kind of -- we're kind of looking to see what could get your ROE higher than -- or up to near 20% longer term. Both of those seem to speak to maybe some changes on the balance sheet. And I wanted to talk to you or have you talk a little bit about what your longer-term goals are with respect to your balance sheet, should we be expecting inventory or maybe rental or maybe Forestar star or something in that realm that would -- that you would make changes to that would enable your ROE to sort of get a boost?
而你 — — 我認為我們有點 — — 我們有點想看看什麼可以讓你的 ROE 長期高於 — — 或接近 20%。這兩者似乎都表明資產負債表可能會發生一些變化。我想和您談談,或者請您談談您在資產負債表方面的長期目標是什麼,我們是否應該期待庫存或租賃或 Forestar star 或該領域的某些東西 - 您會對其進行更改以使您的 ROE 得到提升?
And then maybe also if you bring some inventory levels down that, that might also lead to stronger cash flow conversion. Maybe if you could just sort of opine a little bit on those 2 points, ROE going higher potentially and also your cash flow conversion.
然後也許如果你降低一些庫存水平,這也可能會帶來更強勁的現金流轉換。也許您可以就這兩點發表一點意見,ROE 可能會更高,而且您的現金流轉換率也會更高。
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Sure. Thanks, Steve. We are in a position to generate much more consistent cash flow yield and cash flow conversion going forward. Today, we believe with where our platform is set up where our balance sheet is. As I mentioned earlier, we're in our target range for leverage and liquidity, so we don't see major changes on that side of the balance sheet going forward.
當然。謝謝,史蒂夫。我們有能力在未來產生更穩定的現金流收益和現金流轉換。今天,我們相信,我們的平台建立在哪裡,我們的資產負債表就在哪裡。正如我之前提到的,我們的槓桿率和流動性處於目標範圍內,因此我們認為未來資產負債表的這一方面不會發生重大變化。
We are very focused on inventory efficiency and improving inventory efficiency throughout all aspects of our operations in terms of our land holdings, our ownership of finished lots. And then our homes and inventory and our inventory turns there, we are very focused on continuing to improve those turns. And so with that, we do expect. We are setting expectations for ourselves to improve the efficiency of inventory levels. And so that will be a key component to stabilizing and then improving our returns on assets as well as then our returns on equity and our consistency of cash flow generation.
我們非常注重庫存效率,並提高我們營運各個方面的庫存效率,包括我們的土地持有量、我們對成品地塊的所有權。然後是我們的房屋和庫存以及我們的庫存週轉率,我們非常注重繼續改善這些週轉率。因此,我們確實期待這一點。我們對自己設定了期望,以提高庫存水準的效率。因此,這將是穩定和提高我們的資產回報率、股本回報率和現金流量產生一致性的關鍵因素。
Back to the beginning, we talked about cash flow yield, cash flow conversion, we do expect this year's cash flow conversion to be near 100%. It may not be quite there on a consolidated basis. I think in our homebuilding operations, we would expect 100%, but consolidated maybe not quite there. As we look into future years, we would expect to be much more consistent than we have been in the past. And the key to maintaining an ROE of closer to that 20% is to have a cash flow yield of north of 10% with strong inventory efficiency.
回到開始,我們談到了現金流收益率、現金流量轉換率,我們確實預計今年的現金流量轉換率將接近 100%。從綜合來看,可能還不夠。我認為,在我們的房屋建築業務中,我們期望達到 100%,但合併後可能還達不到這個水準。展望未來,我們期望比過去更加保持一致。保持接近 20% 的 ROE 的關鍵是擁有 10% 以上的現金流收益率和強大的庫存效率。
Operator
Operator
Matthew Bouley, Barclays.
巴克萊銀行的馬修·布萊(Matthew Bouley)。
Matthew Bouley - Analyst
Matthew Bouley - Analyst
I wanted to ask on the community count. I think you said it was up 4% sequentially and up 12% year-over-year. So curious if at this point, if you can give any kind of directional color or quantification on how 2026 may shape out, just kind of given where you'll be entering the year? And are you -- I don't know, are you extending out or phasing out communities? Anything along those lines to kind of manage some of that supply growth.
我想詢問社區人數。我想您說過它比上一季增長了 4%,比去年同期增長了 12%。所以我很好奇,在這一點上,您是否可以給出任何方向性色彩或量化數據,說明 2026 年的情況如何,只是考慮到您將如何進入這一年?而你──我不知道,你是在擴大還是逐步取消社群?任何類似的做法都有助於管理部分供應成長。
So just kind of early 2026 expectations and any changes on kind of how you're managing that pace of new community openings.
所以只是對 2026 年初的預期,以及在如何管理新社區開放速度方面有任何變化。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Matt, we do expect our community count to moderate some. It's been double digit for a bit now, and we do expect it to drift back down into the mid- to high single digit and then to kind of mid. We have opened a fair amount of markets. We've got another four markets out there. And that community count tends to accelerate when we get out into those communities before they start to produce at a higher level of absorption per community.
馬特,我們確實希望我們的社區數量能夠有所緩和。現在它已經達到兩位數一段時間了,我們確實預計它會回落到中高個位數,然後再回到中等水平。我們已經開拓了相當多的市場。我們還有另外四個市場。當我們進入這些社區時,在它們開始以更高的吸收水平進行生產之前,社區數量往往會加速成長。
We feel really good about our footprint; about the progress we've made in the new markets that we've opened. So not concerned about the level of community count we have. And our operators have done a great job of managing their inventory throughout our communities. And we certainly watch that closely, responding to the absorption they're getting community by community.
我們對我們的足跡以及我們在開闢的新市場中取得的進展感到非常滿意。因此我們並不關心社區數量的水平。我們的操作員在整個社區的庫存管理方面做得非常出色。我們當然會密切關注這一點,並根據社區的吸收情況做出反應。
Our total specs and completed -- well, our completed specs have come down as we expected to, and we expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. So I feel good about that. But we do expect to see moderation in community count as we move into '26.
我們的整體規格和完成情況 - 嗯,我們完成的規格已經按照我們的預期下降了,我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季度。所以我對此感覺很好。但我們確實預計,隨著進入 26 年,社區數量將會減少。
Matthew Bouley - Analyst
Matthew Bouley - Analyst
Okay, got it.
好的,明白了。
And then secondly, your peer this morning spoke about maybe towards the end of June when rates came down a little bit, it seemed like there might have been a bit of a positive response from buyers, and I'm obviously paraphrasing what they said, but it sounded like then July was a little bit choppy. So just curious kind of what you guys are seeing around sort of the rate volatility and into the holiday and now into the early part of summer, just how have you guys been seeing traffic trends these past few weeks?
其次,您的同業今天早上談到,也許在 6 月底,當利率略有下降時,似乎買家可能會做出一些積極的反應,我顯然是在轉述他們的話,但聽起來 7 月份的市場有點波動。所以我很好奇,你們對費率波動以及假期和初夏的情況有何看法,過去幾週的客流量趨勢如何?
Thank you.
謝謝。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
It's -- really, it has been choppy. And that choppiness can be based on rate or the noise that you see in the news cycle these days. And what we have been pretty consistent with the rates we've been offering in the market. And because we have great relationships with our realtor community, they understand what we're offering in the market. I think that we have been able to maintain across our footprint in the communities that have been performing well, have continued to.
確實,情況一直不太穩定。這種波動可能基於您最近在新聞週期中看到的速率或噪音。我們向市場提供的利率一直非常一致。由於我們與房地產經紀人社群保持著良好的關係,他們了解我們在市場上提供的產品。我認為,我們能夠在表現良好的社區中繼續保持我們的影響力。
And so far, we've been on track and pleased with what we've seen into July. The incentives are up as we've spoken to. That's why we guided to a little lower gross margin into the fourth quarter, but so far, it seems to be doing okay as far as driving traffic and the incremental sales we need.
到目前為止,我們的工作一切順利,並且對七月的進展感到滿意。正如我們所說的,激勵措施已經提高。這就是為什麼我們預計第四季度的毛利率會略低,但到目前為止,就推動流量和我們所需的增量銷售而言,它似乎表現還不錯。
Operator
Operator
Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.
富國銀行的薩姆·里德。
Sam Reid - Analyst
Sam Reid - Analyst
Awesome, thank you so much.
太棒了,非常感謝。
I wanted to touch on your third-party broker relationships really quickly. I believe you're somewhat unique in that you embed third-party broker commissions and gross margin. So just curious if you had any color on broker attach rate and the rate you're paying those brokers this quarter and whether there was any step change in that number? I believe one of your large competitors has been moving deeper into third-party broker relationships. Just curious if you had to respond to that.
我想快速談談你們與第三方經紀人的關係。我認為你們在嵌入第三方經紀人佣金和毛利率方面是比較獨特的。所以我只是好奇您是否了解經紀人附加率以及本季度您向這些經紀人支付的費率,以及該數字是否有任何變化?我相信你們的一個大型競爭對手已經與第三方經紀商建立了更深的關係。我只是好奇你是否必須對此做出回應。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
We've seen -- always have a long-term, very good relationship with the brokerage community, and I think we are still north of 80% with our broker attachment regulatory transactions. And we love it that they bring us a qualified buyer, and they're only paid when the home closes. And so we continue to maintain strong relationships. They have been part of our operating model for a long time, and I envision it will be for a long time.
我們已經看到——我們與經紀界一直保持著長期、非常好的關係,我認為我們的經紀人附件監管交易仍然超過 80%。我們很高興他們能為我們帶來合格的買家,而且他們只在房屋成交時才獲得報酬。因此我們繼續保持著牢固的關係。它們長期以來一直是我們營運模式的一部分,我預計它們還會繼續存在很長一段時間。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Our average commission stayed relatively flat. So on our overall closings, it's about 270 basis points of impact, if you wanted to look at apples-to-apples gross margin or SG&A versus other builders that recorded differently.
我們的平均佣金保持相對穩定。因此,對於我們的整體收盤而言,如果您想比較毛利率或銷售、一般及行政費用,並與記錄不同的其他建築商進行比較,其影響約為 270 個基點。
Sam Reid - Analyst
Sam Reid - Analyst
No, that's very helpful. And then you've alluded a few times so far on the call, the higher sequential incentives in the fourth quarter, and it's definitely a very topical today. Could you just talk to the composition though of those incentives that you're embedding in that fourth quarter gross margin guide?
不,這非常有幫助。到目前為止,您在電話會議上已經多次提到第四季度更高的連續激勵措施,這絕對是今天的熱門話題。您能否談談您在第四季度毛利率指南中嵌入的激勵措施的組成?
Earlier in the call, I think you mentioned you're leaning more into FHA. And to that end, kind of would it be reasonable to assume that perhaps some of that lower sequential on gross margin could be a function of more buyers utilizing that 3.99% buy down. And then on that 3.99% rate, we've seen it in several markets across our checks, but just curious the uptake on it or do you think it's more of a traffic driver versus something the buyer actually ends up going with?
在早些時候的通話中,我想您提到您更傾向於 FHA。為此,是否可以合理地假設,毛利率的連續下降可能是由於更多買家利用了 3.99% 的購買率。然後,對於 3.99% 的利率,我們在檢查中已經看到了它在多個市場上的體現,但我只是好奇它的接受度如何,或者您認為它更多的是一個流量驅動因素,而不是買家最終真正選擇的東西?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. The 3.99% where we have it is largely a traffic driver, and it's community specific. I mean I was in a division last week where they were offering everything from 3.99% to no BFC, no rate incentive, just market because they had solid, strong, consistent demand at the pace they expected in that community.
是的。我們擁有的 3.99% 主要是流量驅動因素,並且是特定於社區的。我的意思是,上週我在一個部門,他們提供從 3.99% 到無 BFC 的所有服務,沒有利率激勵,只有市場,因為他們在該社區有穩定、強勁、持續的需求,並且速度符合他們的預期。
I think our average rate in backlog and/or on closings was just over 5%. So we really do have a range of incentives out there, including multiple programs, whether that's for a buyer that needs no money down or a special arm, which has taken a little better hold. So our operators have done a great job of managing that rate incentive. But by and large, that is the key incentive that has been driving sales for us. And that's the biggest component of the incentives that we're seeing in our mix.
我認為我們積壓和/或關閉的平均比率略高於 5%。因此,我們確實有一系列的激勵措施,包括多個計劃,無論是針對不需要首付的買家還是特殊部門,這些都已經得到了更好的支持。因此,我們的營運商在管理費率激勵方面做得非常出色。但總的來說,這是推動我們銷售的關鍵動力。這是我們看到的激勵措施中最大的組成部分。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
I think we've talked to the 1 to 1.5 points below market pretty consistently. Last quarter, we're pretty transparent about we're probably closer to the 1.5% on average, which is what the just over 5% Paul mentioned would incorporate.
我認為我們一直在談論低於市場 1 到 1.5 個百分點的情況。上個季度,我們非常透明地表示,我們可能更接近平均 1.5%,這也是 Paul 提到的略高於 5% 的目標。
Operator
Operator
Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research.
艾瑞克‧博薩德(Eric Bosshard),克里夫蘭研究公司。
Eric Bosshard - Analyst
Eric Bosshard - Analyst
Good morning.
早安.
Two things, first of all, I'm just curious from a stick, brick and land, where that is in terms of inflation and where you expect that to go from here?
有兩件事,首先,我很好奇,從木棍、磚塊和土地的角度來看,通貨膨脹的情況如何,您預計通貨膨脹將如何發展?
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Yes. So on a year-over-year basis, we saw a nice decline in our stick and brick costs on a per square foot basis, down about 2%. Sequentially, that was down about 1%. And then on the lot cost side, we did see the moderation. It's only been one quarter.
是的。因此,與去年同期相比,我們發現每平方英尺的木條和磚塊成本大幅下降,下降了約 2%。與上一季相比,這一數字下降了約 1%。然後在地塊成本方面,我們確實看到了緩和。才過了一個季度。
So we'll see what happens next quarter, but we've talked about that moderating for some time, and so our lot cost was up a mid-single-digit percentage year over year, and it was slightly just ever so slightly down sequentially.
因此,我們將看看下個季度會發生什麼,但我們已經討論了一段時間的緩和,因此我們的地塊成本同比增長了中等個位數百分比,並且環比略有下降。
Eric Bosshard - Analyst
Eric Bosshard - Analyst
From a lot cost perspective, is there anything that you're doing to influence this? Is there anything different in the market that you're seeing that suggests the path for that forward can be a bit of a flatter curve than we've seen?
從批量成本角度來看,您是否採取了什麼措施來影響這一點?您是否發現市場上有什麼不同,顯示未來發展路徑可能比我們所見的曲線更平坦?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think some of that is mix, down 1% a quarter. I wouldn't expect that with consistency. We really haven't seen a significant shift in the land market. People have pulled back on purchases and delayed purchases and more from the land market negotiating terms and timing of those terms. There certainly are some opportunities out there, but not to the extent that we would expect given the mix of lots that we have across our whole portfolio, anything that's going to change those lot valuations significantly in the coming quarters.
我認為其中一些是混合的,每季下降 1%。我不會期望這一點具有一致性。我們確實沒有看到土地市場的重大轉變。人們已經減少了購買量並推遲了購買,並且更多地關注土地市場的談判條款和時間。當然,也存在一些機會,但考慮到我們整個投資組合中的地塊組合,這些機會不會達到我們預期的程度,任何因素都不會在未來幾季顯著改變這些地塊的估值。
Eric Bosshard - Analyst
Eric Bosshard - Analyst
And then the second question from a product or price point, anything that you're seeing change. It was a quarter where you spoke to things were better than expected. I'm just curious from a product mix perspective if there are areas of incremental outperformance or underperformance.
然後第二個問題從產品或價格角度來看,您看到任何變化。這是一個您所說的情況比預期更好的季度。我只是好奇,從產品組合的角度來看,是否存在一些表現優於或低於預期的領域。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
I think we continue to see strong adoption of some of the smaller plans we've introduced across our markets, probably not having a meaningful material impact on the overall consolidated results yet, but we're encouraged by how some of the smaller product has been well received in the market and the utility is providing for the buyers.
我認為,我們繼續看到我們在各個市場推出的一些小型計劃得到強有力的採用,可能尚未對整體合併業績產生重大的實質性影響,但我們對一些小型產品在市場上受到好評以及公用事業為買家提供服務感到鼓舞。
Operator
Operator
Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.
特雷弗·阿林森(Trevor Allinson),沃爾夫研究公司。
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
First one is just on your completed and aged spec count. You've made some really good progress over the last couple of quarters working those down. We're also entering the slower time of the year. Just can you talk about how you feel about your completed inventory levels currently? And is there a target level for each of those numbers you'd like to be at as you exit your fiscal year?
第一個僅基於您已完成和過時的規格數量。在過去的幾個季度裡,你們已經取得了一些非常好的進展。我們也正在進入一年中較為緩慢的時期。您能談談您對目前已完成庫存水準的感受嗎?在財政年度結束時,您希望每個數字都達到一個目標水準嗎?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
We feel very good about where we are and the progress that we've made in reducing our -- especially our completed spec count. We do expect that to continue to lower. Given our cycle times and continued improvement in cycle times, we just don't need to carry as many spec homes to generate the closings that we're looking for in the quarter and as we look into '26. So we would expect that to continue to trend down. Don't have a specific target.
我們對目前的狀況以及在減少(尤其是已完成的規格數量)方面所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們確實預計該數字將繼續下降。考慮到我們的週期時間和週期時間的持續改進,我們不需要持有那麼多樣板房就能在本季度以及展望 26 年時實現我們期望的成交量。因此我們預計該趨勢將繼續下降。沒有特定的目標。
We're going to respond to the market and make sure that we are starting homes largely in sync with our sales pace into the fourth quarter as we prep for fiscal '26.
我們將對市場做出反應,確保在為 26 財年做準備的同時,第四季的房屋開工率與銷售速度基本同步。
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Trevor Allinson - Analyst
Okay, makes a lot of sense.
好的,很有道理。
And then second question is just your views on resale inventory in the markets you operate in. We've heard a lot of builders talk about retail inventory, not being very competitive new homes. At the same time, we've seen a pretty notable rise in resell inventory since really the middle of last year coincided with some overall demand weakness.
第二個問題是您對您所在市場轉售庫存的看法。我們聽到很多建築商談論零售庫存,新房子的競爭力不強。同時,自去年年中整體需求疲軟以來,我們看到轉售庫存明顯增加。
So are you seeing more competition there from retail inventory? If so, could you rank where that stands in terms of headwinds in context of affordability and sentiment issues?
那麼,您是否看到零售庫存的競爭更加激烈了?如果是的話,您能否根據負擔能力和情緒問題的背景下的阻力情況對其進行排名?
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
In the conversations I have with our sales folks and our models, I'm not hearing resale as being a big pushback from us or that we're losing customers to resell inventory. That housing stock is generally quite a bit older than it otherwise would have been because it sat dormant for a while and was not brought to market, plus some of the interest rate incentives are not nearly as compelling that are being offered by the resale owners. And it's still a very attractive position for buyers, especially new homebuyers to come look at new home construction. First-time home buyers look at the home construction.
在與我們的銷售人員和模特兒的交談中,我並沒有聽到轉售給我們帶來很大的阻力,也沒有聽到我們因為轉售庫存而失去客戶。這些房屋存量通常比原來的存量要老得多,因為它們閒置了一段時間,沒有推向市場,而且一些利率激勵措施並不像轉售業主提供的那麼有吸引力。對於買家,尤其是前來考察新房屋建設的新購屋者來說,這裡仍然是一個非常有吸引力的地方。首次購屋者會看房屋的建築狀況。
Operator
Operator
Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
It's Rafe.
是雷夫。
I wanted to ask just when you compare the performance in the larger markets that you operate versus some of the smaller markets, maybe where you have more private competition. Is there a big difference? And what are you seeing from the private smaller homebuilders?
我想問的是,當您比較您所經營的較大市場與一些較小市場(可能存在更多私人競爭)的表現時。有很大差別嗎?您從私人小型住宅建築商那裡看到了什麼?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I would say that throughout this fiscal year, we've seen more consistent performance to budget or to planned absorptions from the markets that are smaller, where we operate mostly against the private builders with maybe a public or two in those markets. And those are the markets that largely we have entered as well over the last several years, and our teams are just starting to build out their teams and catch their stride in their communities and performing at a good level.
我想說的是,在整個財政年度,我們看到預算或較小市場計劃吸收的表現更加一致,在這些市場中,我們主要與私人建築商合作,可能有一兩家公眾建築商參與。這些都是我們在過去幾年中主要進入的市場,我們的團隊才剛開始組建團隊,在各自的社區中取得進展並表現出色。
I think as you look at the larger markets, there certainly is competition, always has been, which we're happy to play in that space, and operators doing well in those as well. But I think if you look at comparison to plan, we're seeing a little better performance this year in the markets, the secondary markets and markets where we have less public builder competition.
我認為,當你看更大的市場時,肯定存在競爭,一直存在競爭,我們很高興在這個領域發揮作用,運營商也做得很好。但我認為,如果與計劃進行比較,我們今年在市場、二級市場和公共建築商競爭較少的市場中的表現會更好一些。
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Rafe Jadrosich - Analyst
Good. That's interesting. And then in terms of the land cost impact, I think the last couple of quarters, some -- there is some lot cost pressure from mix. In this quarter, it was a tailwind. If we were to sort of normalize for that, what are you seeing for sort of underlying lot cost in inflation?
好的。那很有意思。然後就土地成本影響而言,我認為過去幾個季度,混合因素帶來了一些地塊成本壓力。本季度,這是一個順風。如果我們對此進行某種程度的規範化,您認為通貨膨脹中的潛在成本是多少?
And just given some of the softness in the market more recently, like when would that sort of underlying trend when is there an opportunity for that to come lower?
鑑於最近市場的一些疲軟,這種潛在趨勢何時有機會走低?
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
I think in the near term, we would expect to continue to see mid-single-digit inflation in our lot cost. I mean it's kind of a flow of inventory that's going through the homes we closed over the next 12 months. They're pretty much on lots that are identified costed and largely owned by us today.
我認為,短期內,我們預期地塊成本將持續出現中等個位數的通膨。我的意思是,這是一種庫存流,將流經我們未來 12 個月內關閉的房屋。它們基本上位於我們今天確定的成本和大部分所有權的地段上。
Going forward, if we continue to see a little bit of softness or changes in the marketplace and that results in changes in land and development costs, we expect to see relief from that inflation going forward, but that would be several quarters out where that inventory came into production and closings.
展望未來,如果我們繼續看到市場略有疲軟或變化,並導致土地和開發成本發生變化,我們預計未來通膨將會緩解,但這還需要幾個季度的時間,庫存才會投入生產和關閉。
Operator
Operator
Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的麥可雷豪特。
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Great. Appreciate it. First, I just wanted to circle back and make sure I fully appreciated or understood the trends around incentives during the quarter and how they've progressed year to date and how you're thinking about them in the back -- in the next quarter or two.
偉大的。非常感謝。首先,我只是想回顧一下,確保我完全了解或理解本季激勵措施的趨勢,以及它們今年迄今為止的進展情況,以及您對未來一兩個季度的激勵措施有何看法。
One of your competitors this morning talked about incentives now up each of the last 2 quarters 70 to 80 bps on average, sequentially each of the last two quarters. I was wondering if you're seeing any type of similar trend, at least on average? I know obviously, market by market, it varies a lot. And if you would expect incentives to continue to rise over the next quarter or two.
今天上午,你們的一位競爭對手談到,激勵措施在過去兩個季度中平均每季都上漲了 70 到 80 個基點,並且是連續兩個季度上漲的。我想知道您是否看到任何類似的趨勢,至少平均而言?我顯然知道,每個市場都有很大的差異。如果您預計激勵措施在未來一兩個季度內將繼續上升。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Mike, I don't think we've quantified our incentives other than talking about them in a high single-digit percentage range. I mean, obviously, if it's netting its revenue or it's in cost of sales, it all falls out in gross margin, which is why users continue to focus on that forward-looking data point. And we did, as we said, start to incentivize more heavily here over the last couple of weeks to drive what we're trying to achieve for the full fiscal year. And so we do expect at the midpoint a 50 basis point decline in our gross margin from Q3 to Q4.
麥克,我認為我們除了在高個位數百分比範圍內談論激勵措施外,還沒有量化我們的激勵措施。我的意思是,顯然,如果它的淨收入或銷售成本全部計入毛利率,那麼這就是用戶繼續關注前瞻性數據點的原因。正如我們所說的,我們在過去幾週開始加強激勵力度,以推動我們努力實現整個財政年度的目標。因此,我們確實預計,從第三季到第四季度,我們的毛利率將下降 50 個基點。
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Michael Rehaut - Analyst
Okay. No, I appreciate that.
好的。不,我很感激。
And I guess, secondly, anything that maybe is offsetting that rise in incentives that you saw this past quarter going into next quarter? Obviously, this quarter still came in above -- a little bit above your guidance, next quarter down 50 bps is not anything too material relative to perhaps some more bearish concerns out there. So anything on the tailwind side that you can kind of put your finger on that's offset some of those headwinds, be it cost or even tariffs or other areas of the construction cost basket?
其次,我想,有什麼事情可以抵銷上個季度激勵措施在下個季度的增加?顯然,本季的業績仍略高於您的預期,下個季度下降 50 個基點相對於外界一些更悲觀的擔憂而言並不算什麼重大問題。那麼,您可以指出順風方面的任何因素,以抵消一些逆風,無論是成本還是關稅還是建築成本籃中的其他部分?
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
We have seen slight improvement in our stick and brick cost, and so that is a partial offset. But our commentary really over the last year has been that incentives have been increasing. That's been the main driver for the gross margin, decline over the last year. Our operators are striving every day to strike the best balance between hitting pace and maintaining margin in each community to maximize returns. And so they're using all the levers they have with incentives to try to balance that.
我們看到木棍和磚塊的成本略有改善,因此這是一種部分抵消。但我們過去一年的評論是,激勵措施一直在增加。這是去年毛利率下降的主要原因。我們的營運商每天都在努力在每個社區中實現速度與維持利潤之間的最佳平衡,以實現最大回報。因此,他們利用一切手段和激勵措施來嘗試平衡這種狀況。
And so we have seen the pace of incentive cost increases and the pace of margin decline moderate a bit over the last couple of quarters. And then this quarter, it held still flat sequentially, but the trend is still pointing towards a bit higher incentives. And we don't see significant offsets to that, though we will continue to work on costs on the construction side.
因此,我們看到過去幾季激勵成本的成長速度和利潤率下降的速度有所緩和。本季度,其環比仍持平,但趨勢仍指向更高的激勵。儘管我們將繼續致力於建設方面的成本控制,但我們並未看到顯著的抵消效應。
Operator
Operator
Mike Dahl, RBC.
加拿大皇家銀行的麥克達爾。
Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst
Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst
So if we stick with the cost side of the equation, I mean, we may or may not be in a position to kind of refine views on tariffs to ease all that fun stuff -- sorry, can you hear me?
因此,如果我們堅持考慮成本方面的問題,我的意思是,我們可能會或可能不會以某種方式改進對關稅的看法,以緩解所有這些有趣的事情——對不起,你能聽到我說話嗎?
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Yes. We cut out after fun stuff.
是的。做完有趣的事情後我們就休息了。
Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst
Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst
So all the fun stuff around tariffs and potential labor dynamics. You guys given your position in the market and your breadth, have a good holistic view of things like that. Can you just give us your sense of as we've kind of refined as all the headlines come out? Obviously, this would impact your fiscal '25, but when you think about cost for construction next year on sticks and bricks and then availability of labor, how are you thinking about things?
所有有趣的東西都圍繞著關稅和潛在的勞動力動態。鑑於你們在市場中的地位和廣度,你們對這樣的事情有很好的整體看法。當所有頭條新聞出現時,您能否告訴我們您對於我們已經做出的改進的看法?顯然,這會影響您的 25 財年,但是當您考慮明年建築材料(木棍和磚塊)的成本以及勞動力的可用性時,您是如何考慮這些事情的?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Mike, we work on our costs every day. And that has been consistent and certainly is going on today in our divisions. From labor availability, it's plentiful. We have the labor that we need. Our trades are looking for work, and that's why you've seen sequential and year-over-year reduction in our cycle time because we have the support we need to get our homes built.
麥克,我們每天都在努力降低成本。這種情況一直存在,而且今天在我們的部門中仍然如此。從勞動力供應來看,它是充足的。我們擁有所需的勞動力。我們的行業正在尋找工作,這就是為什麼您會看到我們的週期時間連續且逐年減少,因為我們獲得了建造房屋所需的支援。
And given those efficiencies, we do expect to continue to see reductions in stick and brick over time. Some of that is from design and efficiency of the product that we're putting in the field. And some of that is just from the efficiency of our operations and from the competitiveness from the labor base that's out there today.
鑑於這些效率,我們確實希望隨著時間的推移繼續看到木棍和磚塊的減少。其中一些來自於我們投入該領域的產品的設計和效率。其中一些只是來自於我們營運的效率以及當今勞動力基礎的競爭力。
Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst
Michael Dahl - Equity Analyst
And then shifting gears, you had a healthy result in terms of kind of the step-up in rentals, both revenue and profitability. It's still a pretty dynamic market out there. So can you just help us understand some of those moving pieces put together in 3Q, how you're thinking about the next couple of quarters given the backlog that you've got on the rental side?
然後換個角度來看,從租金收入和獲利能力的成長來看,你取得了健康的成果。這仍然是一個相當活躍的市場。那麼,您能否幫助我們了解第三季的一些變化?考慮到租賃方面的積壓訂單,您對接下來幾季有何看法?
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Bill Wheat - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President
Yes. We have the backlog of identified properties that are in line to sell. We did see a bit of a step-up there in the revenue there this quarter, a little bit better margin on those. That market is still experiencing a lot of transition in higher rate environment and cap rates that have changed over the last few years. And so we're working on each one of those projects, working them closer to sale.
是的。我們有大量已確定的待售房產。我們確實看到本季的收入有所增加,利潤率也略有提高。在高利率環境和過去幾年發生變化的資本化率下,該市場仍在經歷許多轉型。因此,我們正在致力於每一個項目,使它們更接近銷售。
And that is one element of our margin guide as we look to Q4. We would expect -- while revenues may still be in the same ballpark or better than where it was this quarter, we do expect margins on the sales in Q4 to be lower in the rental segment than they were in Q3.
這是我們展望第四季的利潤率指南的一個要素。我們預計—雖然收入可能仍與本季持平或更好,但我們預計第四季度租賃部分的銷售利潤率將低於第三季。
Operator
Operator
Alex Rygiel, Texas Capital Securities.
德州資本證券公司的 Alex Rygiel。
Alex Rygiel - Analyst
Alex Rygiel - Analyst
Geographically, can you comment on demand trends and highlight the outliers?
從地理角度來看,您能否評論需求趨勢並強調異常值?
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
We typically don't go into a whole lot of geographic discussion. It's kind of a roll-up of everything we're doing, and we see some of the same national trends, I would say, you see with others and in the resale markets. There's been a lot of a change in the dynamics in the Florida markets. And perhaps most so there. Other markets continue to be consistent performers, where there's been limited inventory and limited development of lots, and housing production continue to see strong demand in those markets.
我們通常不會深入討論地理問題。這有點像是我們所做的一切的總結,而且我們看到了一些相同的全國趨勢,我想說,你可以在其他地方和轉售市場看到這些趨勢。佛羅裡達市場的動態發生了很大變化。或許那裡的情況最為如此。其他市場繼續表現穩定,庫存有限,地塊開發有限,而住房生產在這些市場繼續保持強勁需求。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Our supplemental data presentation will include our sales and active selling community detail. Again, I think it gets posted after the call. So you'll see on a sequential basis, there's really no outliers outside of the Northwest sales.
我們的補充資料展示將包括我們的銷售和活躍銷售社群的詳細資訊。再次,我認為它會在通話後發布。因此,您會看到,從連續資料來看,西北地區銷售情況之外確實沒有異常值。
We're a little bit lagging. And I think we attribute some of that just to the tech buyer and what's going on with potentially uncertainty of the job market and whatnot in the Pacific Northwest. But otherwise, we saw a decent increase at least on a sequential unusual seasonal basis in our sales, which was a positive.
我們有點落後了。我認為,我們將部分原因歸咎於科技買家以及太平洋西北地區就業市場的潛在不確定性等等。但除此之外,我們的銷售額至少在連續不尋常的季節性基礎上出現了可觀的成長,這是一個正面的訊號。
Alex Rygiel - Analyst
Alex Rygiel - Analyst
And real quick, could you talk a bit about your low cancellation rate, what it's telling you about the economy, consumer confidence and buyer credit quality?
您能否簡單談談低取消率的原因,這反映了哪些經濟、消費者信心和買方信用品質的問題?
At the rate that we're seeing, which is kind of below our historical average, is that the buyers that are out there and our FICO score at what 720 even with the transition to FHA rate, I think some of that transition is people taking advantage of the lower rates we can offer with a rate buydown, but people are having to work to get there.
我們看到的利率有點低於我們的歷史平均水平,即使過渡到 FHA 利率,買家的 FICO 分數也只有 720,我認為部分過渡是人們利用我們透過利率買斷提供的較低利率,但人們必須努力才能達到目標。
And as we introduce smaller product and continue to try and reduce our ASP to expand into that buyer base, we certainly have to go through the process of working through credit, but our teams do a very good job of that. And our mortgage company does an exceptional job of working with those buyers to get them in a position to close on their own.
當我們推出更小的產品並繼續嘗試降低平均售價以擴大買家群體時,我們當然必須經歷透過信貸運作的過程,但我們的團隊在這方面做得非常好。我們的抵押貸款公司在與這些買家的合作中做得非常出色,使他們能夠自行完成交易。
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
During the quarter, over 12,000 of our customers were first-time homebuyers. And so they have people that have worked very hard to get on the homeownership ladder, and we're very proud of this company that we're able to make that happen for so many families quarter after quarter after quarter.
本季度,我們有超過 12,000 名客戶是首次購屋者。因此,他們擁有一群非常努力的員工,他們獲得了住房所有權,我們為這家公司感到非常自豪,因為我們能夠一個季度又一個季度地幫助這麼多家庭實現這一目標。
Operator
Operator
Alex Barron, Housing Research Center.
住房研究中心的亞歷克斯·巴倫。
Alex Barron - Analyst
Alex Barron - Analyst
I'm sorry if I missed if you mentioned the build time, but can you repeat that? And is there any particular initiatives to try to lower that, such as more in-house labor or manufacturing trusses or any of that kind of stuff?
很抱歉,如果我錯過了您提到的建造時間,您能再說一遍嗎?是否有任何特別的措施來嘗試降低這項成本,例如增加內部勞動力或製造桁架或諸如此類的東西?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
None of that as far as integrating. For us, we have the labor base that we need and a very strong trade base that's very supportive of us. So we don't feel the need to internalize any of that and take on that additional challenge and risk at this time. We've seen sequential reduction in that cycle time over a couple of days. And then two weeks over last year, we're sitting right where we want to be three months, which is below our historical norms.
就整合而言,這些都不是。對我們來說,我們擁有所需的勞動力基礎和非常強大的貿易基礎,它們對我們非常有幫助。因此,我們認為目前沒有必要將任何這些內化並承擔額外的挑戰和風險。我們已經看到該週期時間在幾天內連續減少。與去年同期相比,兩週後,我們的業績就達到了我們三個月以來的預期,低於我們的歷史標準。
I would not expect to see a significant decline over the next 12 months, but teams are very focused on maintaining that and gaining advantage where they can on cycle time.
我預計未來 12 個月內不會大幅下滑,但團隊非常注重保持這種下滑趨勢,並在周期時間上盡可能地取得優勢。
Alex Barron - Analyst
Alex Barron - Analyst
Got it. What about efforts to drive greater affordability such as smaller lot sizes or smaller floor plans, any initiatives on that front?
知道了。那麼,為提高可負擔性所做的努力(例如縮小地塊面積或縮小建築面積)有什麼措施嗎?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think both of those. Alex, you can look at our average square footage, and it's declined consistently over really the last 24 months. I would expect that to continue some. And the key to affordability in this country is to provide a smaller home site with a smaller home that meets the ability of our buyers to close on our home and meet some monthly payment that fits what they're looking for. We just need a little extra help from local governments to allow us to achieve that really across the US, but that's an opportunity that we continue to explore every day.
我認為兩者都有。亞歷克斯,你可以看看我們的平均面積,它在過去 24 個月裡一直在下降。我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。在這個國家,實現可負擔性的關鍵是提供一個較小的住宅用地,並建造一個較小的住宅,以滿足買家購買我們房屋的能力,並滿足他們所期望的每月付款。我們只是需要當地政府提供一點額外的幫助,以便我們能夠真正在全美實現這一目標,但這是我們每天都在繼續探索的機會。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Our average square footage on homes closed was 1,956, which was down 1% from a year ago, which has been just a very gradual decline, but we're down in the last 5 years a high single-digit percentage on our average square footage. So we expect that just gradual trend of the average shrinking to continue.
我們售出的房屋平均建築面積為 1,956 平方英尺,比一年前下降了 1%,這是一個非常緩慢的下降趨勢,但在過去 5 年裡,我們的平均建築面積下降了較高的個位數百分比。因此我們預期平均數逐漸萎縮的趨勢將會持續下去。
Alex Barron - Analyst
Alex Barron - Analyst
Okay. Great. Good luck for the rest of the year.
好的。偉大的。祝你今年餘下的時間一切順利。
Operator
Operator
Jade Rahmani, KBW.
傑德·拉赫馬尼(Jade Rahmani),KBW。
Jade Rahmani - Analyst
Jade Rahmani - Analyst
Can you discuss what you're seeing in the market in terms of home prices across the board? If you could quantify any range of price decline you're seeing and also what you might expect going forward?
您能否討論一下您所看到的整個市場的房價情況?您能否量化您所看到的價格下跌幅度以及您對未來的預期?
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
We focus predominantly on incentives where we can and that's allowed us to maintain a lot of our base pricing across the country. That doesn't mean you won't find places where on select houses, in select communities, we are making actual base price reductions. That's generally much more targeted, though, in terms of on completed, aged inventory.
我們主要關注力所能及的激勵措施,這使我們能夠在全國範圍內維持大部分基本價格。這並不意味著你不會發現我們在特定社區的特定房屋上進行實際的基本價格降低。不過,就已完成的、陳舊的庫存而言,這通常更有針對性。
Jade Rahmani - Analyst
Jade Rahmani - Analyst
And are you seeing competitors with your product, primarily new homebuilders, but also in the existing home market cut price?
您是否看到您的產品受到競爭對手的青睞,主要是新房建築商,但現有房屋市場的降價現像也正在發生?
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
I think competitive pressures across the board in any given submarket, we're seeing some competitors cut price or resell cutting price, and our local operators respond to every one of those dynamics on a weekly basis. And we're still seeing sales paces in line with the targeted goals for those communities [Audio Gap] at the right margins to drive the returns we're looking for. So it's going to be a competitive thing we deal with neighborhood by neighborhood and trusting our local operators to meet their market week to week to week.
我認為任何特定子市場都存在全面競爭壓力,我們看到一些競爭對手降價或轉售降價,而我們的本地營運商每週都會對每一個動態做出反應。我們仍然看到銷售速度與這些社群 [Audio Gap] 的目標一致,而且利潤率合適,可以帶來我們所期望的回報。因此,這將是一個競爭性的事情,我們與各個社區打交道,並相信我們的當地營運商能夠每週滿足他們的市場需求。
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
And we do generally see though, by and large, builders are much more rational today. You can look at another competitor's results this morning. And I think most builders today are taking a very balanced approach, as it relates to pace and price and not just slashing prices across the board. So we're happy to see the rational approach that the industry is taking today.
然而,我們確實普遍看到,整體而言,如今的建築商更加理性。您可以查看今天早上另一位競爭對手的成績。我認為當今大多數建築商都採取了非常平衡的方法,因為它涉及速度和價格,而不僅僅是全面削減價格。因此,我們很高興看到當今行業採取的理性方法。
Operator
Operator
Jay McCanless, Wedbush.
傑伊麥坎利斯,韋德布希。
Jay McCanless - Analyst
Jay McCanless - Analyst
And apologies if I missed this, but did you all happen to comment on the Canadian softwood lumber agreement? What gross margin impact that might have on Horton?
如果我錯過了這一點,請原諒,但你們是否對加拿大軟木材協議發表了評論?這對霍頓的毛利率會產生什麼影響?
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
Michael Murray - Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President
No, we haven't commented on it. And it will have some potential impact, but we've not quantified that. I know it is a significant step-up in the tariff rates that I think go into effect next month. But we're buying some percentage of that wood, and there's some substitutionary product that would be available as well based upon where that pricing ultimately settles.
不,我們還沒有對此發表評論。它將產生一些潛在的影響,但我們還沒有量化它。我知道這是關稅稅率的重大上調,我認為該政策將於下個月生效。但我們會購買一定比例的木材,根據最終定價,還會有一些替代產品可供選擇。
Jay McCanless - Analyst
Jay McCanless - Analyst
Okay. And then the second question, and I'm sure you guys addressed this earlier, but to hold the gross margin like you all did have the speed, I think that's very impressive, especially given some of the incentives that your competitors are putting out there, I guess, is there anything from a geographic or a product standpoint that you haven't called out already in this call that you might want to address just to give people a sense of how you might be able to hold that gross margin into the fourth quarter?
好的。然後是第二個問題,我相信你們之前已經回答過這個問題了,但是能夠保持如此高的毛利率,你們確實有這樣的速度,我認為這是非常令人印象深刻的,特別是考慮到你們的競爭對手正在採取的一些激勵措施,我想,從地理或產品的角度來看,還有什麼你在這次電話會議中沒有提到過的,你可能想解決一下如何讓人們了解如何在第四季度保持你的毛利率?
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
No. I think, Jay, that the performance this quarter is a credit to our teams out in the field, managing week-to-week, their flow on buyers and sales and traffic that they need to achieve their goals for the quarter. And we were able to outperform, which honestly was a surprise to us relative to our guidance. But we do expect to see a step down in margins as to our guide of 50 basis points as you look into this quarter. We'll be happy to be pleasantly surprised if that occurs again this quarter, but it's very early in the quarter to be able to tell where that's going to land.
不。傑伊,我認為本季的表現要歸功於我們在外地的團隊,他們每週管理買家流量、銷售量和客流量,這些都是他們實現本季目標所需要的。而且我們能夠表現出色,說實話,相對於我們的指導而言,這對我們來說是一個驚喜。但展望本季度,我們確實預期利潤率將下降 50 個基點。如果本季再次出現這種情況,我們會感到驚喜,但現在還處於本季初期,因此無法判斷其最終結果。
54% of the homes that we closed this quarter were sold in the quarter. So we still got a long way to go in this quarter to see how the margin plays out by quarter end.
本季我們成交的房屋中有 54% 已售出。因此,我們本季還有很長的路要走,才能看到季度末利潤率如何變化。
Jay McCanless - Analyst
Jay McCanless - Analyst
Great. And then the last one I had. Did you all give any color about fiscal '26 community growth or how you expect that to trend?
偉大的。然後是我得到的最後一個。你們對 26 財年的社區發展有何看法,或者你們預期其發展趨勢如何?
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Jessica Hansen - Senior Vice President - Communications and People
Yes. Paul mentioned that it should ultimately moderate. It's been a low double-digit percentage on an annual basis -- or excuse me, on a year-over-year basis for a while. And we would expect that to moderate to the high single digit, and ultimately, probably more like a mid-single-digit community count growth going forward.
是的。保羅提到它最終應該適度。以年率計算,或者說,以年率計算,這一百分比一直處於較低的兩位數水準。我們預計,未來社區數量成長率將放緩至高個位數,最終可能更接近中等個位數。
Operator
Operator
That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我將會議交還給保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基,請他致閉幕詞。請繼續。
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Paul Romanowski - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Matthew.
謝謝你,馬修。
We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our fourth quarter results on Tuesday, October 28. Congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family on producing a solid third quarter. We are honored to represent you on this call and greatly appreciate all that you do.
我們感謝大家今天參加電話會議的時間,並期待在 10 月 28 日星期二再次與您交談,分享我們的第四季度業績。恭喜 D.R. Horton 家族在第三季取得了豐碩的成果。我們很榮幸能代表您參加此電話會議,並非常感謝您所做的一切。
Operator
Operator
Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.
各位,今天的活動就到這裡了。現在您可以斷開連接,並享受美好的一天。感謝您的參與。