霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.

早安，歡迎參加 D.R. 2024 年第四季財報電話會議霍頓，美國建築商，美國最大的建築商。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。

A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.

正式演講後將舉行問答環節。

If you wish to enter the Q&A queue, please press star one on your phone at any time.

如果您想進入問答隊列，請隨時按手機上的星號一。

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Tom, and good morning and welcome to our call to discuss our fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 financial results. Before we get started, today's call includes forward looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

謝謝你，湯姆，早安，歡迎致電我們討論 2024 財年第四季的財務業績。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

雖然 D.R.霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。

All forward looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的資訊。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期，以及 D.R.霍頓不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on form our 10 K and our most recent quarterly report on Form 10 Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致績效發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參見 D.R. Horton 的 10 K 表格中的年度報告和 10 Q 表格中的最新季度報告均已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor dot D.R. Horton.com, and we plan to file our 10 K and about three weeks after this call, we will post updated Investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events.

今天早上的收益發布可以在我們的網站投資者點 D.R. 上找到。 Horton.com，我們計劃提交 10 K，在本次電話會議後大約三週，我們將在投資者關係網站的新聞和活動下的演示文稿部分發布更新的投資者和補充數據演示文稿。

For your reference.

供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to Paul Redmond, Askey, our President and CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長保羅‧雷德蒙德‧阿斯基 (Paul Redmond)。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning.

謝謝你，潔西卡，早安。

I'm pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Moore, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我很高興我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Mike Moore 和我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Wheat 也參加了這次電話會議。

The D.R. Horton team produced solid results to finish the year, highlighted by consolidated pretax in revenues of $10 billion with a pretax profit margin of 17.1%.

D.R. Horton 團隊在今年取得了堅實的業績，其中綜合稅前收入達 100 億美元，稅前利潤率為 17.1%。

Earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter were $3.92.

第四季稀釋後每股收益為 3.92 美元。

For the year, earnings per diluted share increased 4% to $14.34.

今年稀釋後每股收益成長 4% 至 14.34 美元。

At our consolidated pretax income was $6.3 billion on revenues of $36.8 billion with a pretax profit margin of 17.1%.

我們的綜合稅前收入為 63 億美元，收入為 368 億美元，稅前利潤率為 17.1%。

Our homebuilding pretax return on inventory for the year was 27.8%.

我們今年的住宅建築稅前庫存回報率為 27.8%。

Return on equity was 19.9% and return on assets was 13.9%.

股本報酬率為19.9%，資產報酬率為13.9%。

Our return on assets ranked in the top 25% of all S & P 500 companies for the past three, five and 10-year periods.

我們的資產回報率在過去三年、五年和十年期間在所有標準普爾 500 強公司中排名前 25%。

Our consolidated cash flow from operations for 2024 was $2.2 billion, and we returned all of the cash we generated this year to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

2024 年我們的合併營運現金流為 22 億美元，我們將今年產生的所有現金透過回購和股利返還給股東。

Our fiscal 2024 share distributions increased by approximately $700 million or 44% from the prior year.

我們 2024 財年的股票分配比前一年增加了約 7 億美元，即 44%。

Over the past five years, we have generated $9 billion of cash flow from operations, and we have reduced our outstanding share count by 12% for the quarter.

在過去的五年裡，我們的營運現金流量達到了 90 億美元，本季的流通股數減少了 12%。

Despite continued affordability challenges and competitive market conditions, our net sales orders increased slightly from the prior year.

儘管承受能力面臨持續挑戰和競爭激烈的市場條件，我們的淨銷售訂單仍較上年略有增加。

Our sales pace was in line with normal seasonality from the third to fourth quarter, but below our expectations.

從第三季到第四季度，我們的銷售速度符合正常季節性，但低於我們的預期。

While mortgage rates have decreased from their highs earlier this year, many potential homebuyers expect rates to be lower in 2025.

儘管抵押貸款利率已從今年稍早的高點下降，但許多潛在購屋者預計 2025 年利率將會更低。

We believe that the volatility of rates combined with general uncertainty during the election and season is causing some buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near term to help spur demand and address affordability.

我們認為，利率的波動加上選舉和季節期間的普遍不確定性，導致一些買家在短期內保持觀望，以幫助刺激需求並解決負擔能力。

We are continuing to use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and we have continued to start and sell more of our smaller floor plans with 46% of fourth quarter close.

我們將繼續採用抵押貸款利率回購等激勵措施，並繼續啟動和銷售更多較小的樓層平面圖，第四季成交率為 46%。

We also sold in the same quarter.

我們也在同一季度出售了。

Our sales incentive levels and gross margin are generally representative of current market conditions.

我們的銷售激勵水準和毛利率通常代表當前的市場狀況。

We've typically experienced seasonally slower demand during the fall, and our tenured local operators seek to find the right balance of sales, pace, pricing and incentives in each community that will best position our returns and inventory levels before we enter the spring.

我們通常會在秋季經歷季節性需求放緩，我們的長期本地業者尋求在每個社區的銷售、節奏、定價和激勵措施之間找到適當的平衡，以便在進入春季之前最好地定位我們的回報和庫存水準。

For the full year of fiscal 2012 five, our homebuilding volume and profit margins will largely be dependent on the strength of the upcoming spring selling season.

2012 財年第五財年，我們的房屋建築量和利潤率將在很大程度上取決於即將到來的春季銷售季節的實力。

Overall, the demographic supporting housing demand are favorable, and we continue to see a generally limited supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points.

總體而言，支持住房需求的人口結構是有利的，而且我們仍然看到價格實惠的新房和現房供應普遍有限。

In addition to a limited supply of finished lots available for new home construction with our focus on affordable product offerings, 37,400 homes in inventory, continued improvement in our construction cycle times and adequate finished lots available in our pipeline.

除了可用於新房建設的成品地塊供應有限（我們專注於提供價格實惠的產品）外，庫存房屋數量為 37,400 套，我們的建設週期時間持續改善，我們的管道中有足夠的成品地塊。

We are well positioned for fiscal 2025.

我們為 2025 財年做好了充分準備。

We remain focused on enhancing the capital efficiency of all of our operations to produce consistent sustainable returns and cash flows so that we can return more capital to shareholders through both share repurchases and dividends.

我們仍然專注於提高所有業務的資本效率，以產生持續的可持續回報和現金流，以便我們可以透過股票回購和股息向股東返還更多資本。

Mike earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 fourth decreased 12% to $3.92 per diluted share compared to $4.45 per share in the prior year quarter.

麥克 2020 財年第四季的每股攤薄收益下降 12%，至 3.92 美元，而去年同期為 4.45 美元。

Earnings for the full year increased 4% to $14.34 per diluted share compared to $13.82 in fiscal 2023.

與 2023 財年的 13.82 美元相比，全年攤薄後每股收益成長 4%，達到 14.34 美元。

Net income for the quarter decreased 15% to $1.3 billion on consolidated revenues of $10 billion.

該季度淨利潤下降 15%，至 13 億美元，綜合收入為 100 億美元。

And for the year, income increased slightly to $4.8 billion on revenues of 36.8 billion.

今年，營收小幅成長至 48 億美元，營收達 368 億美元。

In our fourth quarter, home sales revenues were $8.9 billion on 23,647 homes closed compared to $8.8 billion on 2029 or 28 homes closed here for average.

第四季度，房屋銷售收入為 89 億美元，有 23,647 套房屋成交，而 2029 年平均有 28 套房屋成交，房屋銷售收入為 88 億美元。

Closing price for the quarter was $377,600, down 1%, both sequentially and from the prior year quarter.

本季收盤價為 377,600 美元，比上一季和去年同期均下降 1%。

Bill.

帳單。

Our net sales orders in the fourth quarter increased slightly from the prior year quarter to 19,035 homes and order value decreased 2% to $ 7.1 billion.

我們第四季的淨銷售訂單較去年同期略有增加，達到 19,035 套房屋，訂單價值下降 2% 至 71 億美元。

The sequential decline in our net sales orders was consistent with the prior year and in line with normal seasonality from the third to the fourth quarter, but lower expectations.

我們的淨銷售訂單季減與前一年一致，也符合第三季至第四季的正常季節性，但低於預期。

Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 21%, up from 18% sequentially and unchanged from the prior year quarter.

本季的取消率為 21%，高於上一季的 18%，與去年同期持平。

Our average number of active selling communities was flat sequentially and up 10% from the prior year.

我們的活躍銷售社群平均數量與上一季持平，比上一年增長 10%。

The average price of net sales orders in the fourth quarter was $375,400, down 1% sequentially and 2% from the prior year quarter.

第四季淨銷售訂單平均價格為 375,400 美元，比上一季下降 1%，比去年同期下降 2%。

Just because our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the fourth quarter was 23.6%, down 40 basis points sequentially from the June quarter.

僅僅因為我們第四季房屋銷售收入的毛利率為23.6%，比六月季度環比下降了40個基點。

The decrease in our gross margin from June to September was primarily due to higher incentive costs on homes closed during the quarter.

6 月至 9 月毛利率下降主要是由於本季關閉房屋的激勵成本增加。

On a per-square-foot basis, home sales revenues were down roughly 1.5% sequentially, while stick and brick cost per square foot decreased 1% and a lot costs increased 1.5%.

以每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入較上季下降約 1.5%，而每平方英尺的木棍和磚塊成本下降 1%，地塊成本增加 1.5%。

We anticipate our incentive levels to increase further on homes closed over the next few months.

我們預計在未來幾個月內，我們對關閉房屋的激勵程度將進一步提高。

So we expect our home sales gross margin to be low in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

因此，我們預計第一季的房屋銷售毛利率將低於第四季。

Our incentive levels and home sales gross margin for the full year of fiscal 2025 will be dependent on the strength demand during the spring selling season.

我們 2025 財年全年的激勵水準和房屋銷售毛利率將取決於春季銷售季節的強勁需求。

In addition to changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions fell in the fourth quarter.

除了抵押貸款利率變化外，其他市場狀況也在第四季度出現下滑。

Our homebuilding SG&A expenses incurred leased by 17% from last year, and homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.6%, up 100 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year.

我們的租賃住宅建築銷售、一般管理費用比去年同期成長了 17%，住宅建築銷售、一般管理費用佔收入的百分比為 7.6%，比去年同期上升 100 個基點。

For the year, homebuilding SG&A was 7.5% of revenues of 40 basis points from fiscal 2023.

今年，住宅建築 SG&A 佔營收的 7.5%，比 2023 財年提高了 40 個基點。

Increased SG&A costs in both periods are primarily due to the expansion of our operating platform.

這兩個時期的銷售、管理及行政費用增加主要是由於我們營運平台的擴張。

Our employee and average community count are both up 10% from a year ago, while our market count increased to 125 markets and 36 states from 118 markets and 33 states fall.

我們的員工和平均社區數量都比一年前增加了 10%，而我們的市場數量從 118 個市場和 33 個州增加到 125 個市場和 36 個州。

We started 18 1,400 homes in the September quarter and ended the year with 37,400 homes in inventory, down 11% from a year ago and approximately 5,000 homes lower than at the end of June.

我們在 9 月季度開工了 18,400 套房屋，到年底庫存房屋為 37,400 套，比去年同期下降 11%，比 6 月底減少了約 5,000 套。

25,700 of our total homes at September 30th were unsold 10,300 of our old unsold homes at year end was completed, of which 1,100 have been completed for greater than six months.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們共有 25,700 套房屋未售出。

The increase in unsold completed homes this quarter resulted from a combination of a seasonally slower sales pace and further improvement in our construction cycle times for homes we closed in the fourth quarter.

本季度未售出竣工房屋的增加是由於銷售速度季節性放緩以及第四季度關閉房屋的施工週期時間進一步縮短所致。

Our cycle time decreased by almost a week from the third quarter and a month from a year ago.

我們的周期時間比第三季減少了近一周，比一年前減少了一個月。

Our improved cycle times, position us to turn our housing inventory faster and 2025, and we will continue to manage our homes in inventory and starts pace based on market conditions.

我們改進的周期時間使我們能夠在 2025 年更快地週轉我們的住房庫存，我們將繼續管理我們的住房庫存並根據市場狀況啟動步伐。

Our homebuilding lot position at September 30th consisted of approximately 633,000 megawatts, of which 24% were owned and 76% were controlled through purchase contracts.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的住宅建設用地面積約為 633,000 兆瓦，其中 24% 為自有，76% 透過購買合約控制。

We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to maximize returns.

我們仍然專注於與全國各地土地開發商的關係，以實現最大回報。

The relationship allows to build more homes on logs developed by others of the homes we closed during the fourth quarter 64% or a loss developed by either for store or a third party, up from 62% in the prior year quarter.

這種關係允許我們在第四季度關閉的其他房屋中使用其他人開發的原木建造更多房屋，或由商店或第三方開發的損失，高於去年同期的 62%。

Our capital efficient and flexible lot portfolio is the key to our strong competitive position.

我們的資本效率和靈活的批次投資組合是我們保持強大競爭地位的關鍵。

Our fourth quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $2.2 billion, of which $1.5 billion was for finished lots, $560 million was for land development and $170 million was for land acquisition for the year.

我們第四季在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 22 億美元，其中 15 億美元用於成品地塊，5.6 億美元用於土地開發，1.7 億美元用於當年土地收購。

Our homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $9.5 billion, up 19% from fiscal 2023 falloff in the fourth quarter.

我們在土地、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 95 億美元，比 2023 財年第四季的下降增加了 19%。

Our rental operations generated 100 million of pretax income of $705 million of revenues from the sale of one 1,692 single-family rental homes and 868 multifamily rental units.

我們的租賃業務透過出售 1,692 套單戶出租房屋和 868 套多戶出租單元，產生了 1 億稅前收入，其中 7.05 億美元。

For the full year, our rental operations generated 229 million of pretax income of $1.7 billion of revenues from the sale of 3,970 single-family rental homes and 2,202 multifamily rental units.

全年，我們的租賃業務透過銷售 3,970 套單戶出租房屋和 2,202 套多戶出租單元，產生了 2.29 億稅前收入，其中 17 億美元。

We can continue to operate and merchant build model in which we construct and sell purpose-built rental communities.

我們可以繼續營運和商業建立模型，在該模型中我們建造和銷售專門建造的租賃社區。

Our rental operations, provide synergies to our homebuilding operations by enhancing our purchasing scale and providing opportunities for more efficient utilization of trade, labor and land parcels.

我們的租賃業務透過擴大我們的採購規模並為更有效地利用貿易、勞動力和地塊提供機會，為我們的住宅建設業務提供協同效應。

Our rental property inventory at September 30th was $2.9 billion, which consisted of $800 million of single-family rental properties and $2.1 billion of multifamily rental properties.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 29 億美元，其中包括 8 億美元的單戶出租物業和 21 億美元的多戶出租物業。

We expect our total rental inventory to remain around and the current level for the next step, Jessica Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company reported revenues of $551 million for the fourth quarter on 5,374 lots sold with pretax income of the Forestar delivered 15,068 lots, generating $1.5 million of revenues and $270 million of pretax income with a pretax profit margin of 17.9%.

我們預計我們的總租賃庫存將保持在當前水平左右，下一步，我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司Jessica Forestar 報告第四季度收入為5.51 億美元，售出5,374 塊土地，Forestar 的稅前收入為15,068塊地塊，產生 150 萬美元的收入和 2.7 億美元的稅前收入，稅前利潤率為 17.9%。

Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at September 30th was 95,100 minus 65% of Forestar's owned.

截至 9 月 30 日，Forestar 擁有和控制的持倉量為 95,100 減去 Forestar 擁有的 65%。

Lots are under contract with are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton, $430 million of finished lots purchased in the fourth quarter were from Forestar Forestar at approximately $860 million of liquidity at year end with a net debt to capital ratio of 12.4%.

與 D.R. 簽訂合約的地塊享有優先報價權。 Horton 表示，第四季從 Forestar 購買了價值 4.3 億美元的成品地塊，年底流動資金約為 8.6 億美元，淨債務與資本比率為 12.4%。

Our strategic relationship with Forestar is a vital component of our returns focused business model.

我們與 Forestar 的策略關係是我們注重回報的業務模式的重要組成部分。

First, our strong separately capitalized balance sheet, growing operating platform and lot supply position them well to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry and to aggregate significant market share of in the next several years.

首先，我們強大的獨立資本資產負債表、不斷增長的營運平台和地塊供應使他們能夠很好地利用住宅建築行業成品地塊的短缺，並在未來幾年內聚合顯著的市場份額。

Mike Financial Services earned $76 million of pretax income in the fourth quarter.

麥克金融服務公司第四季稅前收入為 7,600 萬美元。

There are $222 million of revenues with the pretax profit margin of 34.3% for the year, Financial Services earned premium of $11 million of pretax income of $883 million of revenues, with a pretax profit margin of 35.3% during the fourth quarter.

全年營收為 2.22 億美元，稅前利潤率為 34.3%；金融服務第四季營收為 8.83 億美元，稅前利潤率為 1,100 萬美元，稅前利潤率為 35.3%。

Essentially all of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations at our mortgage company handled the financing for 77% of our buyers, FHA and VA loans accounted for 60% of the mortgage company's volume.

基本上，我們抵押貸款公司的所有貸款發放都與我們抵押貸款公司的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋相關，為 77% 的買家處理了融資，FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司貸款量的 60%。

Borrowers originating with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average cycle score of seven 24 at an average loan to value ratio of 88%.

本季源自 DHI Mortgage 的借款人的平均週期得分為 7 24，平均貸款價值比為 88%。

First-time homebuyers represented 59% of the closings handled by our mortgage company this quarter.

首次購屋者占我們抵押貸款公司本季處理的成交量的 59%。

Bill.

帳單。

Our capital allocation strategy is disciplined and balanced to sustain an operating platform that produces consistent returns growth in cash flow.

我們的資本配置策略嚴謹且平衡，以維持一個能夠產生持續的現金流量回報成長的營運平台。

We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and substantial liquidity, which provides us with significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表、低槓桿率和大量流動性，這為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性，以適應不斷變化的市場條件和機會。

During fiscal 2020 for our consolidated cash provided by operations was $2.2 billion, and we distributed or the cash we generated through share repurchases and dividends to enhance shareholder returns.

2020財年，我們的營運提供的綜合現金為22億美元，我們透過股票回購和股利分配產生的現金，以提高股東回報。

During the quarter, we repurchased $3.4 million shares of common stock for $561 million.

本季度，我們以 5.61 億美元的價格回購了 340 萬美元的普通股。

For the year, we repurchased $12.5 million shares for $1.8 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 3% from the prior year end.

今年，我們以 18 億美元的價格回購了 1,250 萬美元的股票，這使我們的流通股數量比上年末減少了 3%。

Our remaining share repurchase authorization at September 30th was 3.6 billion during the quarter, we also paid cash dividends of $98 million for a total of $395 million of dividends paid.

截至 9 月 30 日，本季我們剩餘的股票回購授權為 36 億美元，我們也支付了 9,800 萬美元的現金股息，總計支付了 3.95 億美元的股息。

During the year 30th, we had $7.6 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $4.5 billion of cash and $3.1 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities.

在第 30 年，我們擁有 76 億美元的綜合流動性，其中包括 45 億美元的現金和 31 億美元的信貸額度可用能力。

In August, we issued $700 million of senior notes due 2030 for our debt at September 30th totaled $5.9 billion.

8 月份，我們發行了 7 億美元、2030 年到期的優先票據，以償還截至 9 月 30 日的總計 59 億美元的債務。

Subsequent to year end, we repaid $500 million of senior notes at maturity, and we have no additional maturities in fiscal 2025.

年底後，我們償還了到期的 5 億美元優先票據，我們在 2025 財年沒有額外的到期日。

Our consolidated leverage at September 30th was 18.9%, and leverage net of cash was 5.2%.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為 18.9%，扣除現金後的槓桿率為 5.2%。

We plan to maintain our leverage around 20% over the long term.

我們計劃長期將槓桿率維持在20%左右。

At September 30th, our stockholders' equity was $25.3 billion and book value per share was $78.12, up 15% from a year ago.

截至9月30日，我們的股東權益為253億美元，每股帳面價值為78.12美元，比去年同期成長15%。

For the year, our return on equity was 19.9% and our return on assets was 13.9%.

今年，我們的股本報酬率為 19.9%，資產報酬率為 13.9%。

Based on our strong financial position and cash flow, our Board recently increased our quarterly cash dividend by 33% to $0.4 per share. Jacsica.

基於我們強勁的財務狀況和現金流，我們的董事會最近將季度現金股息增加了 33% 至每股 0.4 美元。傑西卡.

Looking forward, our fiscal 2025 business plan was built from the community level at the beginning with our lot position with a return to more normal seasonality.

展望未來，我們的 2025 財年業務計畫一開始就從社區層級制定，我們的地段位置將回歸到更正常的季節性。

We expect our results for the full year were largely be dependent on the strength of this spring.

我們預計全年的業績很大程度上取決於今年春季的實力。

As outlined in our press release this morning, for the full year of fiscal 2025, we expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately 36 to $37.5 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 90,000 to 92,000 homes.

正如我們今天上午的新聞稿中所述，2025 財年全年，我們預計將產生約 36 至 375 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 90,000 至 92,000 套之間。

We forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2025 of approximately 24.5%.

我們預計 2025 財年的所得稅稅率約為 24.5%。

We expect to generate more cash flow from operations in fiscal 2025 in fiscal 2024 and to utilize a substantial portion of our cash flows to enhance shareholder returns.

我們預計2024財年將從2025財年的營運中產生更多現金流，並利用大部分現金流來提高股東回報。

We currently plan to repurchase approximately $2.4 billion of our common stock this year.

我們目前計劃今年回購約 24 億美元的普通股。

In addition to making annual dividend payments of around $500 million for our first fiscal quarter ended December 31st, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of 6.8 to $7.3 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 17,500 to 18,000 homes.

除了截至12 月31 日的第一財季支付約5 億美元的年度股息外，我們目前預計將產生6.8 至73 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在17,500 至18,000套之間。

We expect our home sales gross margin in the first quarter to be around 22.5% and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues to be approximately 8.9%.

我們預計第一季房屋銷售毛利率約為 22.5%，房屋建築 SG&A 佔收入的百分比約為 8.9%。

We anticipate the Finance Services pretax profit margin of around 20% in the first quarter, and we expect our income tax rate for the quarter to be approximately 24.5% fall.

我們預計第一季金融服務稅前利潤率約為 20%，我們預計本季所得稅率將下降約 24.5%。

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry leading market share, broad geographic footprint and focus on affordable product offerings.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、領先業界的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及對價格實惠的產品的關注。

All of these are key components of our operating platform that sustain our ability to produce consistent returns to ag market share.

所有這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分，維持我們為農業市場份額帶來持續回報的能力。

We have significant financial flexibility and we plan to maintain our disciplined approach to capital allocation and provide consistently high returns to our shareholders to enhance the long-term value of our company.

我們擁有顯著的財務靈活性，我們計劃保持嚴格的資本配置方法，為股東提供持續的高回報，以提高公司的長期價值。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton, family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work.

感謝整個 D.R.霍頓、員工家屬、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人，感謝你們的持續努力和辛勤工作。

We look forward to working together to improve our operations and provide homeownership opportunities to more individuals and families during 2009.

我們期待著共同努力，改善我們的運營，並在 2009 年為更多的個人和家庭提供擁有住房的機會。

Foods our prepared remarks, we will now host questions.

完成我們準備好的發言，我們現在將提出問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, the floor is now open for questions.

女士們、先生們，現在可以提問。

If you wish to ask a question at this time, please press star one on your keypad.

如果您此時想提問，請按下鍵盤上的星號一。

Should you wish to remove yourself from queue, you may press star two.

如果您希望將自己從佇列中刪除，可以按星二號。

We do ask if listening on speaker phone this morning that you pick up your handset while asking your question to provide optimum sound quality.

我們確實會詢問您今天早上是否在使用免持電話收聽時，在提問時拿起聽筒，以提供最佳音質。

Finally, we do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up.

最後，我們確實要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上。

Please hold a moment while we poll for questions.

請稍等一下，我們將進行投票詢問問題。

Your first question this morning is coming from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

你們今天早上的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Steven, your line is live.

史蒂文，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Appreciate the color on.

欣賞上面的顏色。

Wanted to ask a couple of questions regarding your guide.

想問一些有關您的指南的問題。

First of all, I think in particular, your revenue guide hum can be influenced a lot by rental revenue.

首先，我特別認為，您的收入指南嗡嗡聲可能會受到租金收入的很大影響。

And the other factor that you didn't give was also the ASP. for closing.

您沒有提供的另一個因素也是 ASP。用於關閉。

So just one good to see if you could help us disaggregate a little bit.

所以，很高興看看你是否能幫助我們稍微分解。

What are you assuming in terms of rental revenue, maybe, you know, sequentially or year over year?

您對租金收入有何假設，您知道，可能是連續的還是逐年的？

However, you think it's best.

不過，你覺得這樣最好。

I'm thinking about it and revenue dollars and that both for the first quarter and for the full year guide?

我正在考慮它和收入以及第一季和全年指南？

Yes, Steve, implied in our consolidated revenue guide would be relatively flat rental revenues year over year.

是的，史蒂夫，我們的綜合收入指南中暗示租金收入將比去年同期相對持平。

We would expect those revenues to be weighted a little heavier in the back half of the year than in the first half of the year.

我們預計下半年這些收入的權重將比上半年稍重。

And so so a little bit lighter in the first quarter as well.

因此第一季的情況也稍微輕鬆一些。

In terms of ASP., we're assuming relatively flat ASP. with recent trends.

就平均售價而言，我們假設平均售價相對持平。與最近的趨勢。

On a course that's going to be subject to market conditions going forward into the spring as well as incentive levels.

課程將取決於春季的市場狀況以及激勵程度。

Gotcha.

明白了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful are at.

這很有幫助。

And then second question, I wanted to sort of delve a little bit into the your comment about market conditions, which I think we all realized, you know, it's tough out there on it.

然後是第二個問題，我想深入研究您對市場狀況的評論，我想我們都意識到，您知道，這很難。

But in particular, you talked about how you think that buyers are sort of, you know, on the sidelines kind of waiting, maybe the election, maybe just affordability.

但特別是，您談到了您如何認為買家在場外等待，也許是選舉，也許只是負擔能力。

And so, I wanted to see if we could disaggregate that on.

所以，我想看看我們是否可以將其分解。

Can you talk about what you're seeing with respect to your interest lists or traffic and help us, but maybe draw a distinction between what you're seeing today versus what you saw in other previous times when buyers kind of went on strike, like maybe the back half of calendar 2022, for example, just to help us get a better sense of how much of this is actual true on affordability versus cycle psychological one factor causing people to wait on the sidelines?

您能否談談您在興趣清單或流量方面所看到的情況並幫助我們，但也許可以將您今天所看到的情況與先前買家罷工時所看到的情況區分開來，例如，也許是在2022 年的後半段，只是為了幫助我們更好地了解負擔能力與週期心理這一導致人們觀望的因素有多少是真實的？

Yes, Stephen certainly is a combination of both, but we are seeing our buyers sit on the sidelines, sit on the fence, a little less motivated today. than they were previously in prior quarters.

是的，史蒂芬當然是兩者的結合，但我們看到我們的買家坐在場邊，騎牆觀望，今天的積極性有點低。高於前幾季的水平。

And affordability has been challenged.

負擔能力也受到了挑戰。

We still see consistent traffic.

我們仍然看到穩定的流量。

It was below our expectations in the quarter.

季度低於我們的預期。

And hence, you know the results in terms of total sales, but still we were up year over year.

因此，你知道總銷售額的結果，但我們仍然逐年成長。

I would say that for the quarter and our sales were in line with normal seasonality, I don't think this is a structural issue with demand.

我想說，就本季而言，我們的銷售符合正常的季節性，我認為這不是需求的結構性問題。

There's just a lot of noise in the market today.

今天市場上有很多噪音。

The rate volatility we've seen combined with the election news that's out there.

我們看到的利率波動與現有的選舉消息結合。

I just think we're stand.

我只是認為我們立場一致。

People take a pause, but it certainly is a stretch today and we got to continue to focus on affordability to make sure we get the product and monthly payment and positioned for our people to move forward.

人們會停頓一下，但今天這確實是一個延伸，我們必須繼續專注於負擔能力，以確保我們獲得產品和每月付款，並為我們的員工前進做好準備。

I'm just a clarification there on our view.

我只是澄清一下我們的觀點。

Are you looking for mortgage rates to come down next year?

您是否希望明年抵押貸款利率下降？

Is that what's embedded in your guide?

這是您指南中嵌入的內容嗎？

No, we wouldn't expect and we aren't going to manage our business around that expectation one way or another.

不，我們不會期望，我們也不會以某種方式圍繞著這一期望來管理我們的業務。

We're going to continue to respond to the market as we go week-to-week and month-to-month.

我們將繼續每週、每月對市場做出反應。

Gotcha.

明白了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

Matthew, your line is live.

馬修，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

So looking at the delivery guide of 90 to 92,020 25 and comparing that versus, I guess, the 37,000 homes in inventory you have at the moment, I guess that ratio is maybe a little bit higher than it typically is and during the year.

因此，請看看 90 至 92,020 25 的交付指南，並將其與目前庫存中的 37,000 套房屋進行比較，我想這個比率可能比今年的通常情況要高一些。

So is there kind of an expectation for maybe a bigger ramp and starts as you get into the spring?

那麼，當你進入春天時，是否會有更大的坡道和啟動的預期？

Or are you saying that kind of cycled that cycle times have come down to such a degree where where you can have that kind of ratio where it is?

還是你是說那種循環週期時間已經下降到可以達到這樣的比率的程度？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt, I think we're looking at both actually to come into play in 2025.

馬特，我認為我們正在考慮讓這兩者在 2025 年真正發揮作用。

We have seen tremendous improvement in our cycle times over the past year and continuing through the fourth quarter with our lot position that we have our ability to lean into starts with the market.

在過去的一年裡，我們的周期時間取得了巨大的進步，並在第四季度繼續保持我們的定位，我們有能力從市場開始傾斜。

As we see the market unfold, we'll be able to present the starts and we feel really good about our ability to turn that opening housing inventory and fit above.

當我們看到市場的發展時，我們將能夠展示開工情況，我們對我們將開工住房庫存轉化為適合上面的能力感到非常滿意。

So for the first quarter are starting probably only step up slightly from where they were in Q4, and they're lower than the average for the full year.

因此，第一季的開始可能僅比第四季度略有上升，並且低於全年平均水平。

So we would expect a pickup as we move into the spring.

因此，當我們進入春季時，我們預計會出現回升。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And then on the topic of building smaller floor plans on, apologies if I missed the number, but I guess what was your home size down in Q4?

然後，關於建造較小的平面圖的主題，如果我錯過了這個數字，我很抱歉，但我猜你在第四季度的房屋面積縮小了多少？

And kind of what is the expectation for home sizes that you're embedding in 2025 and beyond just the numbers, I'm curious if you could just speak about that kind of balance of affordability, um, versus kind of how you think about the efficiency of building smaller home.

除了數字之外，您對 2025 年的房屋面積有何期望，我很好奇您能否談談負擔能力之間的平衡，嗯，以及您對房屋的看法建造較小房屋的效率。

So kind of what goes into that decision.

做出這個決定的原因就是如此。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll start with the specifics and then Paul can give you his commentary on where things are going.

我將從具體細節開始，然後保羅可以就事情的進展向您發表評論。

And in terms of square footage for the quarter, we were down and again, both 1% sequentially and year over year.

就本季的面積而言，我們一再下降，較上季和年比均下降 1%。

And part of that driver as we continue to see attached product and predominantly townhome, making up a bigger percentage of our closings mix.

這是推動因素的一部分，因為我們繼續看到附加產品和主要是聯排別墅，在我們的成交組合中佔據了更大的比例。

And so we are right, roughly 15% of our closings this quarter were attached product and versus detached single-family homes.

所以我們是對的，本季大約 15% 的成交量是附屬產品，而不是獨立的單戶住宅。

And I know we do see efficiency in the smaller plans, and that helps us to position as we enter into this spring market for our ability to deliver.

我知道我們確實看到了較小計劃的效率，這有助於我們在進入春季市場時定位我們的交付能力。

We have purposefully reduced a number of homes we have in the market because of that ability, no significant shift overall, other than we just need to continue to drive to affordable price points and affordable monthly payments and comes from a lean towards smaller product.

由於這種能力，我們有目的地減少了市場上的房屋數量，總體上沒有重大轉變，除了我們只需要繼續推動可承受的價格點和可承受的每月付款，並且傾向於較小的產品。

That being said, we still do have our move up and freedom buyers that will continue to provide what it is that they're looking for in the marketplace.

話雖這麼說，我們仍然有我們的升級和自由買家，他們將繼續提供他們在市場上尋找的東西。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from John Lovallo from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的約翰·洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

John, your line is live.

約翰，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Thanks for taking my questions as well.

也感謝您回答我的問題。

The first one is that you think you just described the inventory in the market is generally limited supply of new and existing homes.

第一個是你認為你剛剛描述的市場庫存一般是新房和現房的供應有限。

Just curious if you saw some more sitting in that trend as the quarter progressed?

只是好奇隨著本季度的進展，您是否看到更多人處於這種趨勢？

And if so, are there particular markets where you're seeing more inventory come online and how it how are you feeling about that overall conditions in that regard?

如果是這樣，您是否在某些特定市場上看到更多庫存上線？

You know, the overall numbers haven't grown significantly.

要知道，整體數字並沒有顯著成長。

I think with the low number of sales, you're saying the month's supply continues to expand, but still at the price points that we compete at, we see limited supply across most of our markets.

我認為，由於銷售量較低，您是說本月的供應量繼續擴大，但仍處於我們競爭的價格點，我們發現大多數市場的供應量有限。

And with people still that lock-in effect still impact and people from the low mortgage rate that they have, we're just not seeing that supply growth in a significant way.

由於人們仍然受到鎖定效應的影響，而且人們也受到低抵押貸款利率的影響，我們只是沒有看到供應大幅增加。

We still feel very good about our competitive abilities with a new home in our ability to offer a more attractive rate and end markets where there's pressure on insurance.

我們仍然對我們的競爭能力感到非常滿意，因為我們有能力提供更具吸引力的價格和保險壓力較大的終端市場。

We see consistent and relatively stable insurance premiums, which are a competitive advantage against the resale market.

我們看到持續且相對穩定的保費，這是相對於轉售市場的競爭優勢。

Understood.

明白了。

And then on the first quarter gross margin outlook of 20 to five on that 110 basis point step down, I think you guys attributed the majority of that to just step up in state incentives.

然後，第一季毛利率前景為 20 比 5，下降 110 個基點，我認為你們將其中大部分歸因於國家激勵措施的加強。

I just want to make sure that that is the case.

我只是想確定情況確實如此。

And if so, can you just help us with what our current incentive levels as a percentage of revenue?

如果是這樣，您能否幫助我們了解目前的激勵程度佔收入的百分比？

And what are you expecting those to trend over the next few months?

您預計未來幾個月這些趨勢會如何？

Yes, that's right, John.

是的，沒錯，約翰。

Of the step down in our guide for margin Q1 is due to higher incentives.

我們第一季保證金指南中的下降是由於更高的激勵措施。

And really, we started seeing those higher level incentives later in Q4.

事實上，我們在第四季晚些時候開始看到這些更高層級的激勵措施。

Our margins in the month of September was lower than it was in July and August.

我們九月的利潤率低於七月和八月。

And we expect that trend to continue into Q1 and space on volatility in rates where rates have recently regarding the costs of our of our interest rate buydowns is increasing.

我們預計這種趨勢將持續到第一季度，且利率波動的空間最近與我們的利率購買成本有關。

And so so that's that's why we expect our incentive levels to to increase further into into Q1 on a year-over-year basis.

因此，這就是為什麼我們預計第一季的激勵水平將比去年同期進一步提高。

Do you have some stats?

你有一些統計數據嗎？

Yes, I'll give you just the buyers and that had a rate buydown associated with it.

是的，我只會向您提供買家以及與之相關的價格下調的買家。

So of the buyers utilizing our mortgage company during the call after over 80% had some form of a rate buydown and which was flat sequentially, but it was up from 74% a year ago.

因此，在電話會議期間使用我們抵押貸款公司的買家中，超過 80% 的買家進行了某種形式的利率下調，與上一季持平，但高於一年前的 74%。

And so that equates to 63% of our overall closings in the fourth quarter, which was also relatively flat sequentially.

因此，這相當於我們第四季總成交量的 63%，與上一季相比也相對持平。

So it's not necessarily an increasing percentage of buyers utilizing that.

因此，使用該功能的買家比例不一定會增加。

It really is just the cost associated with the buydown.

這實際上只是與購買相關的成本。

And I think with the substantial majority of our closings already being brought down through our mortgage company, that wouldn't be the continued expectation is it's just going to be the cost level, not necessarily a significant higher percentage of buyers that would utilize it.

我認為，由於我們的大部分成交已經透過我們的抵押貸款公司完成，這不會是持續的預期，因為它只是成本水平，不一定會使用它的買家比例顯著更高。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Carl, your line is live.

卡爾，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

I just wanted to partner, could you talk at all about any impact from hurricanes on apps, traffic of the communities themselves?

我只是想合作，您能談談颶風對應用程式、社區本身流量的影響嗎？

And then has there been any positive or negative impact given your reliance on on buyers brokers, the tax settlement to driving traffic sales rates at all or cost you qualify for that question?

那麼，考慮到您對買方經紀人的依賴、稅務結算對推動流量銷售率的影響，或者您有資格回答這個問題的成本，是否會產生任何正面或負面的影響？

First of all, the hurricanes horrified as everyone else, both with the impact that had on somebody families across the across those regions, unfortunately, the D.R. Horton family, our employees and our homeowners fared very well in those storms.

首先，颶風和其他人一樣令人震驚，對這些地區的一些家庭產生了影響，不幸的是，DR.霍頓家族、我們的員工和房主在這些風暴中都表現得很好。

We did not have a significant impact on our communities.

我們沒有對我們的社區產生重大影響。

Thankfully, with the current building codes we build to we see those communities performed very well.

值得慶幸的是，根據我們建造的當前建築規範，我們看到這些社區表現得非常好。

Adverse weather events from excuse me, at the same time, you see the cruise responding utility crews.

對不起，惡劣的天氣事件同時發生，您會看到遊輪上的公用事業人員做出反應。

Municipalities focuses diverted to restoring services to residents and rightly so.

市政當局將重點轉移到恢復居民服務上，這是正確的。

And so that can slow down power electrification for us to conclude on inspections and some of that processing, but because the timing issue rather than any kind of a permanent effect on the business.

因此，這可能會減慢電力電氣化速度，以便我們完成檢查和部分處理，但因為時間問題而不是對業務產生任何永久性影響。

So we feel very fortunate as we are working with the organ family go through the storm pretty well.

所以我們感到非常幸運，因為我們正在與風琴家族一起度過難關。

As far as the Knorr settlement and really to their community response, they seem to have been handling it well, they're largely adjusting to what they need to do to satisfy the requirements of the Knorr settlements.

就克諾爾定居點以及他們的社區反應而言，他們似乎處理得很好，他們很大程度上正在調整以滿足克諾爾定居點的要求。

I haven't seen much of a significant shift one way or the other in terms of traffic and much change in and broker commissions.

就流量而言，我還沒有看到任何重大轉變，經紀佣金也沒有太大變化。

I think that will play out over time.

我認為這會隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

But again, with a limited number of home homes generally available across market, we still have our regulators that have been consistent in their performance was still showing up in our sales offices and able to navigate the requirements of the settlement.

但同樣，由於市場上普遍提供的住宅數量有限，我們的監管機構仍然表現一致，他們仍然出現在我們的銷售辦公室中，並且能夠滿足和解的要求。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

And then you talked about employee an average store count up quite a bit in fiscal 24.

然後你談到了 24 財年平均商店的員工人數。

Is you're looking at 25, but what are your expectations for what we might see in terms of the flattening of that store count growth or a slowdown in the number of a new market you you'd add so that we can we might get better SG&A leverage next year, or do you expect to continue to grow this pretty aggressively?

您是否正在考慮 25 個，但您對我們可能會看到的商店數量增長趨於平緩或您添加的新市場數量放緩的期望是什麼，以便我們可以獲得明年的SG&A 槓桿會更好，還是您預計會繼續大幅成長？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes, clearly, we have been making an investment in these new markets to prepare for portion growth.

是的，顯然，我們一直在對這些新市場進行投資，為份額成長做好準備。

And as we grow into that, I would expect those growth rates to moderate a bit.

隨著我們的發展，我預計這些成長率會放緩。

The community count growth has been your near double digit, high single to low double for the last year or so.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，社區數量的成長接近兩位數，從高點到低位雙倍。

And so naturally, we'd expect that to start to moderate back towards the mid single digit level as well as well.

因此，很自然地，我們預計這一數字也將開始回落到中等個位數水準。

Yes, we did.

是的，我們做到了。

We do always want to make sure on to control our SG&A, but we have been making some investments, your recent levels, everyone cargo, Sam, your line is live.

我們確實總是希望確保控制我們的SG&A，但我們一直在進行一些投資，您最近的水平，每個人都有貨物，山姆，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Next question is from

下一個問題來自

Tom, I think so much on.

湯姆，我想了很多。

So it sounds like gross margin due to lower intra quarter September versus July, August.

因此，聽起來毛利率是由於 9 月季度內毛利率低於 7 月、8 月所致。

And then as you look to your guidance for the fourth quarter, that 22.5% kind of is that 22.5 in line with the exit rate from the arm from the last quarter?

然後，當您查看第四季度的指導時，22.5% 是否與上季度手臂的退出率一致？

Or does it imply that November December will be below October levels?

或者這是否意味著 11 月 12 月將低於 10 月的水平？

Yes.

是的。

Great question.

很好的問題。

And Sam, it is and incorporated in our guide that our September month of closings was our lowest gross margin of the quarter, not quite to where we expect to be for the full year of Q1 because as we said, we do expect to have have further increases in incentive costs, but not far off from where we were in the September month.

山姆，我們的指南中提到，我們 9 月的結帳是本季毛利率最低的，與我們預計第一季全年的毛利率不完全一致，因為正如我們所說，我們確實預計激勵成本進一步增加，但與9 月份的水平相差不遠。

Got you.

明白你了。

And then on wanted to touch on your completed unsold inventories around 10,300.

然後我想談談您大約 10,300 件已完成的未售出庫存。

I'm just wanted to see if there was any detail specifically on geographic dispersion, whether you're seeing a concentration of completed unsold inventories and some of the focused markets investors are interested in like Florida and Texas banks.

我只是想看看是否有任何關於地理分佈的具體細節，是否看到已完成的未售出庫存集中以及投資者感興趣的一些重點市場，例如佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的銀行。

No, no geographic sensitivity or place where we've seen that those units stack-up across the board and across our footprint, we've seen improvement in our cycle times.

不，沒有地理敏感性或我們看到這些單元在我們的足跡中全面堆積的地方，我們已經看到了我們的週期時間的改善。

And I'll and sales being slightly below our expectations in the quarter is why we've seen that increase in completed inventory.

我認為本季的銷售額略低於我們的預期，這就是我們看到已完工庫存增加的原因。

We still are not saying it's sit around and age, and that's when we start to get concerned, we do expect that our completed inventory over the next few quarters will start to trend back down as we've been of the sales pace we need community by community and have adjusted starts were eliminated that we have the homes we're comfortable with today.

我們仍然不是說它已經閒置了，這就是我們開始擔心的時候，我們確實預計未來幾個季度我們的已完成庫存將開始下降，因為我們已經達到了社區所需的銷售速度通過社區和調整開始被淘汰，我們擁有了今天舒適的家園。

And we need to adjust that that completed number down over the next few quarters.

我們需要在接下來的幾個季度內調整完成的數字。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I'll pass it on.

我會把它傳遞下去。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your negotiating Michael Rehaut from JP Morgan, your line is live.

來自摩根大通的邁克爾·雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut) 正在與您進行談判，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Great, thanks and good morning, everyone.

太好了，謝謝大家，早安。

I appreciate you taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I want to delve a little bit into regional color, if possible on apologies.

如果可能的話，我想深入研究一下區域色彩。

I missed this earlier, but with all the focus on Florida and Texas, obviously, in around inventory levels, I know that you've kind of stated a couple of times they feel like that, that perhaps on a broad basis is not an issue.

我早些時候錯過了這一點，但由於所有的注意力都集中在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州，顯然，在庫存水平附近，我知道你已經說過幾次他們有這樣的感覺，也許從廣泛的基礎上來說這不是問題。

But just trying to get a sense when you think about particularly the guide on kind of flat to up low single digits for closings on, does that reflect any regional on challenges?

但是，當您特別考慮有關收盤價持平到上升低個位數的指南時，只是想了解一下，這是否反映了任何區域性挑戰？

Or maybe just more broadly, if you can kind of give us a sense of where you feel demand is stronger versus weaker across your footprint?

或者更廣泛地說，您能否讓我們了解您認為您的足跡中哪些地方需求更強，哪些地方需求較弱？

I don't think the guidance is reflecting any concern with a given region.

我認為該指南並未反映出對特定地區的任何擔憂。

The most the biggest markets that we've been in Florida and Texas are also very competitive markets.

我們去過的佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州最大的市場也是競爭非常激烈的市場。

And so as the buyers have taken a pause that's been reflected, I think, across the footprint of those markets and looking forward into the guide and expectations for next year, it was built largely on the basis of available loss that we have, that we have a comfort level around start space that will lean into as we see spring and fall.

因此，當買家暫停時，我認為，這反映在這些市場的足跡上，並展望明年的指導和預期，這主要是建立在我們現有的可用損失的基礎上的，即我們在起始空間周圍有一個舒適度，當我們看到春天和秋天時，它會傾斜。

And we have the capacity to a to adjust that start to face reflective of the spring selling conditions.

我們有能力根據春季銷售狀況進行調整。

Okay.

好的。

Now I appreciate that.

現在我很欣賞這一點。

I guess secondly, you mentioned that throughout the quarter of September, was your lower margin months with higher incentives?

我想其次，您提到整個 9 月這個季度，您的利潤率較低的月份是否有較高的激勵措施？

I was curious and again, apologies, I missed this earlier, but wanted to get a sense destroy demand and order growth standpoint, sales pace standpoint.

我很好奇，再次抱歉，我之前錯過了這一點，但我想從破壞需求和訂單成長的角度、銷售速度的角度來了解一下。

We've heard some of your competitors talk to September being the strongest month in the quarter.

我們聽說你們的一些競爭對手稱 9 月為本季表現最強勁的月份。

And I was just kind of wondering if that's what you saw from in a sales pace or order growth standpoint?

我只是想知道這是否是您從銷售速度或訂單成長的角度看到的？

Obviously, rates fluctuated a lot during the quarter, but there was perhaps at points into September, August, September, a little bit of a lower point from a rate standpoint.

顯然，本季利率波動很大，但從利率的角度來看，可能在 9 月、8 月、9 月的某個時間點出現了一點較低的情況。

You just kind of curious on what you saw, how things trended during the quarter and got where where September was relative to the rest?

您只是對所看到的內容感到好奇，該季度的趨勢如何，以及 9 月相對於其他月份的情況如何？

I think we saw pretty choppy sales environment through the quarter.

我認為整個季度我們的銷售環境相當不穩定。

If we look at the chart are the mortgage rates we started the quarter just under 7%.

如果我們看一下圖表，我們本季開始時的抵押貸款利率略低於 7%。

We ended the quarter just about 6%.

本季結束時，我們的成長率僅為 6% 左右。

And as a pretty smooth trajectory down, I think that affected a lot of buyers psyche and building about while the rates are on a good brand on a key, Brian, that trend before I jump, Ben, and then lo and behold, we saw October turnaround after the Fed cuts rates are up 50 basis points in the month of October.

作為一個相當平穩的下降軌跡，我認為這影響了很多買家的心理和建設，而價格是一個好品牌的關鍵，布萊恩，在我跳躍之前的趨勢，本，然後你瞧，我們看到了美聯儲在10月降息50個基點後，10月出現轉機。

So it's kind of crazy predicting interest rates.

所以預測利率有點瘋狂。

So the hard hard to see any discernible trend other than we saw some choppy sales and a

因此，除了我們看到一些波動的銷售和

buyer that was on pause and still have during the month of October to date and just with continued rate volatility.

買家已暫停，但 10 月至今仍在暫停，只是價格持續波動。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

您的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Alan, your line is live.

艾倫，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Thanks for the time and if you have so far and my question I guess relates to just the broader strategy that you've had.

感謝您抽出寶貴的時間，如果您到目前為止已經了解了，我想我的問題與您所採用的更廣泛的策略有關。

Yes, as long as we've been covering Horton, which is to consolidate market share.

是的，只要我們一直報道霍頓，就是為了鞏固市場佔有率。

And I guess what I'm thinking about it, you've heard from several other of your larger appears a goal or target to grow in 25 by 5% to 10% rate on closings orders.

我猜我在想什麼，您從其他幾家較大的公司那裡聽說，目標或目標是在結單訂單上以 5% 至 10% 的速度增長 25。

But whatever the metric you're looking at and near guide is obviously a bit below that in 25.

但無論你看到的指標是什麼，接近的指導值顯然都比 25 低一點。

And I know it's preliminary and I know it can obviously move around based on how the spring unfolds.

我知道這只是初步的，而且我知道它顯然可以根據春天的發展方式而移動。

But you asked on the surface right now, we would look like at least in the near term, you don't expect to be taking a significant amount of market share.

但您現在從表面上問，我們看起來至少在短期內，您預計不會佔據大量市場。

So I'm curious when you think about that outlook on field, is that a function of you see maybe some more aggressive incentives out in the market from some of your competitors that you don't feel the need or desire to match right now to think that some of the guys out there might prove to be too aggressive a function of a price point differential might be stronger activity at higher price points just cure, if you can kind of talk about the competitive dynamics that would seemingly that you guys up for a year of no meaningful share growth?

因此，我很好奇，當您考慮這一領域的前景時，您會看到市場上的一些競爭對手可能會提供一些更激進的激勵措施，而您現在不認為有必要或渴望與之匹配認為那裡的一些人可能被證明過於激進，價格點差異的函數可能會在更高的價格點上進行更強勁的活動，如果您能談論一下你們似乎願意接受的競爭動態，那就可以解決這個問題股價沒有明顯成長的一年？

You know, Alan, we do feel very good about our position in oh, we are still well ahead of the spring selling season.

你知道，艾倫，我們確實對自己的處境感到非常滿意，哦，我們仍然遠遠領先於春季銷售季節。

We do have a lot position.

我們確實有很多立場。

We have the inventory and cycle time improvement that we need to lean into the market.

我們擁有進入市場所需的庫存和週期時間改進。

If we see a stronger market in the spring and in our operators are always going to have a higher goal than end of the numbers that we're reaching to.

如果我們在春季看到更強勁的市場，那麼我們的營運商總是會有比我們達到的數字更高的目標。

And it's not a significant shift other than a guide as best we see it today.

正如我們今天所看到的那樣，這並不是一個重大轉變，只是一個指南。

And you know, we are going to stay positioned to respond to the market, feel great about our position and great about our operators in the field on their ability to gauge market and lean and should it should show up stronger in the spring.

你知道，我們將保持對市場做出反應的位置，對我們的地位感到滿意，並對我們在該領域的運營商衡量市場和精益的能力感到滿意，並且應該在春季表現得更強勁。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then second question is kind of around the spec strategy.

第二個問題是圍繞著規範策略的。

And I know obviously you and others have pivoted to kind of hundred percent spec models over the course of the last several years.

我知道顯然你和其他人在過去幾年已經轉向百分百規格模型。

I'm somewhat out of necessity given the supply chain somewhat out of.

鑑於供應鏈有些脫離，我有點出於必要。

Yes, that's where the demand was given the tight resale market.

是的，這就是轉售市場緊張的需求。

But we've talked about this in the past where even though you've never were huge build to order builder by any stretch of the imagination, that was always at least some portion of your business.

但我們過去曾討論過這一點，即使您從未成為大型按訂單建造商，但那至少始終是您業務的一部分。

And I'm curious now with kind of where your your spec position is where your backlog is.

我現在很好奇你的規格位置在哪裡，你的積壓工作在哪裡。

Is there any thought of maybe kind of returning to some extent to the build to order market, especially if the demand in the spring turns out to be?

是否有任何想法可能在某種程度上回歸按訂單生產市場，特別是如果春季的需求確實如此？

Yes.

是的。

Showing signs of acceleration.

呈現加速跡象。

I wouldn't see a sea change shift in our strategy to kind of a community by community.

我不認為我們的策略會發生巨大變化，變成逐個社區的策略。

We are past the supply chain challenges.

我們已經克服了供應鏈的挑戰。

We've driven a lot of efficiency into the building process and cycle times.

我們大大提高了建造過程和周期時間的效率。

We will allow our local operators to make those decisions community by community about going to have more of a presale focused depending upon the of the customer segment that they're seeking to serve that particular community and what the market conditions are like.

我們將允許我們的本地業者根據他們尋求服務特定社區的客戶群以及市場狀況，逐個社區地做出更多預售的決定。

I mean, we still see tremendous demand, especially for the first time homebuyer with the house that conclusion in 60 days, get them qualified for the mortgage and in line with what a lease or something maybe expiring.

我的意思是，我們仍然看到巨大的需求，特別是對於首次購房者來說，在 60 天內購買房屋，讓他們有資格獲得抵押貸款，並符合租約或可能到期的東西。

Thanks, gents.

謝謝，先生們。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research Company.

您的下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Eric Bosshard。

Eric, your line is live.

埃里克，你的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks up.

謝謝了。

two things.

兩件事。

If I if I could.

如果我可以的話。

The increased incentive spend or cost just up a little more clarity.

增加的激勵支出或成本只是變得更加清晰一些。

Is this you of investing more lowering the cost for your customers?

這就是您加大投資以降低客戶成本的原因嗎？

And is that the strategy or is this just it's gotten the customer has gotten more expensive as rates ticked back higher, where we are and what the strategy our vision for those.

這是策略還是這只是隨著利率回升而使客戶變得更加昂貴，我們的處境以及我們對這些策略的願景是什麼。

It's our expectation.

這是我們的期望。

We need to increase our incentives and stay where they are and maybe leaning a little more based on rates and achieving affordability for our buyers.

我們需要增加激勵措施並維持現狀，也許根據利率和實現買家的負擔能力進一步傾斜。

So then if we want to maintain a bigger spread off of market rates, that's going to cost a little more.

因此，如果我們想維持更大的市場利率差，那麼成本就會更高一些。

But as we look forward into the next quarter, we expect that our incentives will have to remain elevated in order to maintain affordability and monthly payment that our buyers are looking for in America would right, are volatile or more uncertain.

但當我們展望下一個季度時，我們預計我們的激勵措施必須保持在較高水平，以維持我們的買家在美國尋求的負擔能力和每月付款，這是不穩定的或更不確定的。

The cost of those incentives do increase.

這些激勵措施的成本確實增加了。

And so regardless of where the level is or how much we're choosing to buy during those periods, words more uncertain.

因此，無論水平在哪裡，也無論我們在這些時期選擇購買多少，言語都更加不確定。

The cost is higher.

成本較高。

Okay.

好的。

And then second question, which is slightly potentially redundant, and I'll ask it nonetheless, that you talked about this this phenomenon of affordability challenges at your solution for affordability, challenges of incentives up a bit more smaller homes.

然後是第二個問題，這可能有點多餘，儘管如此，我還是會問你，你在你的負擔能力解決方案中談到了這種負擔能力挑戰的現象，激勵小一點房屋的挑戰。

Is there anything beyond that are incremental to that?

除此之外還有什麼可以補充的嗎？

Because you look at one of the key limiting factors as this phenomenon of affordability in any and the other solutions that you see that you can help address that to unlock more demand.

因為您將關鍵限制因素之一視為任何解決方案中的負擔能力現象，您認為您可以幫助解決該問題以釋放更多需求。

We are continually it continually evaluating the product sale selections that are going into the homes and looking to see where where it makes sense in the affordability numbers, neighborhood location can have a lot to do with the ultimate affordability as to your cost of the airline direct cost of the development requirements and with municipalities are after the home sales.

我們不斷評估進入家庭的產品銷售選擇，並尋找在可負擔性數字中有意義的地方，鄰近位置可能與最終的可負擔性有很大關係，就您的航空公司直飛成本而言開發要求和市政當局的成本是在房屋銷售之後。

And so continually looking for ways to to bring houses, people can afford a market.

因此，人們不斷地尋找讓房子買得起的市場的方法。

And it's a combination of everything.

它是一切的結合。

That's one thing that we do.

這是我們所做的一件事。

It's something we tried to get to do every day and be as efficient as possible with our starts program to work with our trade partners and labor to make sure that they're able to plan of business.

這是我們每天努力做的事情，並透過我們的啟動計劃盡可能有效地與我們的貿易夥伴和勞工合作，以確保他們能夠制定業務計劃。

We share those savings are applicable business.

我們分享那些節省下來的適用業務。

Without that, we can pass along to our customers.

如果沒有它，我們可以將其傳遞給我們的客戶。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Paul Przybylski from Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Paul Przybylski。

Paul, your line is live.

保羅，您的線已接通。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes, your can rate increased a little bit quarter over quarter over quarter.

是的，您的罐頭費率逐季度略有上升。

I was wondering, you know, our accelerated incentives creating any issues with backlog right now, and historically downpayments have been the greatest impediment for the entry level buyer.

我想知道，你知道，我們的加速激勵措施現在造成了積壓的任何問​​題，而從歷史上看，首付一直是入門級買家的最大障礙。

Is that still the case or has that shifted more to VTI. or monthly monthly payment constraints?

情況仍然如此還是已經更多地轉向 VTI？或每月付款限制？

No, I think we haven't seen a big change in the buyer profile.

不，我認為我們還沒有看到買家概況有重大變化。

Obviously, we've harped on affordability being an issue that hasn't changed that it does take a little bit more and household income to qualify for a home today than it did several years ago.

顯然，我們一直強調負擔能力是一個沒有改變的問題，今天確實需要比幾年前多一點的家庭收入才能有資格購買房屋。

And that our can rate was in line with a year ago.

我們的罐頭率與一年前一致。

And typically we do see a slight pickup and in the fourth quarter and for various reasons.

通常，由於各種原因，我們確實會在第四季度看到輕微的回升。

And if you look at our cadence intra quarter in Q4 on our can rate, it was very consistent with last year's Q4 and low in a high double digit to low 20s is a very comfortable rate for us and to manage.

如果你看一下我們第四季度季度內的罐率節奏，它與去年第四季度非常一致，並且從高兩位數到低20 的低水平對我們來說是一個非常舒適的利率，並且易於管理。

Okay.

好的。

I was wondering what was your average for Q2 rate promotion and how that compared to 3Q and what does it now and so far in October?

我想知道你們第二季利率促銷的平均水準是多少，與第三季相比如何，現在和十月到目前為止情況如何？

Yes, we're really on the 4.5% to 5.5% in terms of our offerings that are out there.

是的，就我們現有的產品而言，我們確實處於 4.5% 到 5.5% 的水平。

I know rates have moved up in the last few weeks.

我知道過去幾週利率有所上升。

We'll see where they settle out over the next couple that may drift up, but still staying in that 1% to 1.5% kind of below market rates is where we have maintained this past quarter ended in the prior couple of quarters.

我們將看到他們在接下來的幾個季度中可能會上漲，但仍保持在低於市場利率1% 至1.5% 的水平，這是我們在前幾個季度結束的上個季度所維持的水平。

Yes, our backlogs right in the middle of that, it's at 5.2%.

是的，我們的積壓訂單就在中間，是 5.2%。

Great.

偉大的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

Anthony, your line is live.

安東尼，您的線已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Are you had pretty good pretty favorable stick and brick costs in the quarter, and I was just wondering how you see those trending in fiscal 1Q.

您在本季的棍棒和磚塊成本是否相當不錯，我只是想知道您如何看待第一財季的這些趨勢。

And then I think referencing maybe Jon's question is, is it fair to say stick and brick is not really driving a big move in margins quarter over quarter in terms of that step down?

然後我認為引用喬恩的問題可能是，就這一下降而言，大棒和磚塊並沒有真正推動利潤率逐季度大幅波動，這樣說是否公平？

Yes, that's very fair.

是的，這非常公平。

And I think we've said for a couple of quarters, we expect the benefit of lumber to be behind us, but that was still a benefit.

我想我們已經說過幾個季度了，我們預計木材的好處將會過去，但這仍然是一個好處。

And the closings this quarter, our stick and brick costs were down roughly 1% sequentially and about 2.5% year over year.

從本季的成交來看，我們的木棍和磚塊成本較上季下降了約 1%，年減了約 2.5%。

And I think our base case as we move throughout 25 as we see relatively flat, give or take 10%.

我認為我們的基本情況是，當我們在 25 年中移動時，我們認為相對持平，上下浮動 10%。

And on the second Brexit.

還有第二次脫歐。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

I mean with the election coming up, are there one or two issues that you could see impacting the industry from a builder perspective or buyers that you'll be really watching as we see kind of how it plays out?

我的意思是，隨著選舉的臨近，從建築商或買家的角度來看，您是否會看到一兩個問題會影響該行業，當我們看到它的結果時，您會真正關注這些問題？

I think everybody would be happy the election's over.

我想每個人都會對選舉結束感到高興。

I think that was a buyer sentiment and the ability to move forward with their life decision.

我認為這是買家的情緒和繼續做出人生決定的能力。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Ken Zener from Seaport Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Ken Zener。

Can your line is live, please go ahead.

您的線路是否已開通，請繼續。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Mark, can you hear me?

馬克，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, hi.

是的，嗨。

Just wanted to check.

只是想檢查一下。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

I'm obviously not what the street or probably what you all were expecting, but I just wanted to go through a few basic thoughts here.

顯然我不是普通人，也不是你們所期待的那樣，但我只是想在這裡談談一些基本的想法。

First, do you think part of the I mean, look, prices high, you can see that affordability, therefore, you're using incentives, which makes sense.

首先，你認為部分我的意思是，看，價格高，你可以看到負擔能力，因此，你正在使用激勵措施，這是有道理的。

But do you think part of the issue is on the slowing supply supply in terms of under construction?

但您是否認為問題的一部分在於興建中工程的供應放緩？

Is that in most markets because the builders are so dominant that new homebuyers already have in a rate neutral environment because most new builders are offering incentives.

在大多數市場中，這是因為建築商佔據主導地位，以至於新購房者已經處於利率中性環境中，因為大多數新建築商都提供激勵措施。

That seems to me like you might have pulled forward demand given that you still have these incentives or do you think it's strictly an issue of affordability, therefore that affects your long-term view on gross margins?

在我看來，鑑於您仍然有這些激勵措施，您可能會提前需求，或者您認為這嚴格來說是一個負擔能力問題，因此會影響您對毛利率的長期看法？

I do think that the land, the fact that we don't have a lot of resale homes on the market also means that we don't have those buyers coming in when they sell their house coming into our offices, 45% of our buyers are not first-time homebuyers.

我確實認為土地，我們市場上沒有很多轉售房屋的事實也意味著我們沒有那些買家在出售房屋時進入我們的辦公室，45％的買家不是首次購房者。

Although we sell more than 50% to those, that means they need to move on from their existing home.

儘管我們向這些人出售了超過 50% 的房屋，但這意味著他們需要搬離現有的房屋。

I don't think there's a lack of want or need accruing out there.

我不認為那裡缺乏需求。

So we could be building some pent up demand.

因此，我們可能會建立一些被壓抑的需求。

And that's what we aren't that concerned.

這就是我們並不關心的。

If we see a resale inventory start to rise a little bit because that means people are moving around more that's going to provide more buyers into our U.S.

如果我們看到轉售庫存開始略有上升，因為這意味著人們流動更多，這將為美國提供更多買家。

We are certainly competitive with the resale market today.

我們在現今的轉售市場上無疑具有競爭力。

We do hear that from our regulators that because of our rate buydowns and availability that we have of homes at more affordable price points that it's challenged, the resale market.

我們確實從監管機構那裡聽說，由於我們的降價購買和以更實惠的價格提供房屋，轉售市場受到了挑戰。

And do you want to comment?

你想發表評論嗎？

I think at some point over the last couple of years, you talked about a structurally higher gross margins in contrast to what had been in 19 or 20% time, yes, under prior management.

我認為在過去幾年的某個時候，您談到了結構性更高的毛利率，與之前管理下 19% 或 20% 的時間相比，是的。

But like do you still have confidence that your gross margins can be structurally higher for you guys?

但是，你們仍然有信心你們的毛利率可以在結構上更高嗎？

Or do you perhaps have the view that at current rates, the affordability is actually a bigger issue given there consistency of these incentives?

或者您認為，以目前的利率，考慮到這些激勵措施的一致性，負擔能力實際上是一個更大的問題？

Thank you.

謝謝。

It can.

可以。

We've always said that we're going to do what we need to do to maximize returns.

我們總是說我們會做我們需要做的事情來最大化回報。

And so for periods of time, we could see gross margin compression that over the long term.

因此，在一段時間內，我們可以看到長期毛利率壓縮。

I do think on average, we believe there's reasons and the long-term average gross margin could be structurally higher because of the scale advantages in the business and are lower cost of capital from the de-leveraging we've done on that.

我確實認為，平均而言，我們相信這是有原因的，而且長期平均毛利率可能會在結構上更高，因為業務的規模優勢，以及我們在這方面所做的去槓桿化帶來的資本成本較低。

We're going to meet the market quarter to quarter to quarter.

我們將逐季滿足市場需求。

And if that means compressing margins in the short term to maximize returns, that's the approach we're going to take.

如果這意味著在短期內壓縮利潤以最大化回報，那麼這就是我們將採取的方法。

And to the longer term view, we are talking about a step down in margins to 22.5%, which is above the high end of our historic range of margins.

從長遠來看，我們正在討論將利潤率降至 22.5%，這高於我們歷史利潤率範圍的上限。

So we have been at a higher level and but we are going to meet the market and there will be periods of time for we need to.

因此，我們已經處於更高的水平，但我們將滿足市場需求，並且需要一段時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America raised.

您的下一個問題是由美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich 提出的。

Your line is live.

您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my questions.

你好，早安，感謝您回答我的問題。

Have you spoke about the stick and brick inflation that you're expecting?

您是否談到過您所預期的棍棒和磚塊通貨膨脹？

Can you talk about what you're anticipating for land inflation in the first quarter and then through through 2025?

您能否談談您對第一季以及 2025 年土地通膨的預期？

So and we've seen a little bit of a moderation from low double digit percentage increase in our loss cost and to high single digit.

因此，我們看到損失成本從兩位數的低百分比成長到個位數的高成長，略有放緩。

And this quarter, on a full-year basis, we were at the double digit percentage, but on a quarter-over-quarter basis it was a high single.

本季度，按全年計算，我們的百分比為兩位數，但按季度計算，這是一個很高的百分比。

So I think, you know, we expect to continue to have cost inflation as we move throughout 25 that maybe it can moderate to a mid single digit as we get a couple of quarters the past and have cycled through some of those comparisons are ready.

所以我認為，你知道，隨著我們進入 25 年，我們預計成本通膨將繼續存在，隨著我們過去幾個季度並已經準備好進行一些比較，成本通膨可能會放緩至個位數。

But our base case is that lot costs will continue to increase it at least a mid-single-digit percentage.

但我們的基本情況是，批量成本將繼續增加至少中個位數百分比。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And then just putting that all kind of together there, how do we think of what level of net price we need in fiscal 25 to hold margins?

然後將所有這些放在一起，我們如何看待 25 財年需要什麼水平的淨價格才能保持利潤率？

We would need us a small amount on with the launch costs.

我們需要少量資金來支付發射成本。

You know, the mid to high impact on overall price, you need a small amount, but not a significant amounts.

你知道，對整體價格的影響是中高的，你需要少量，但不需要大量。

We do expect our or stick and brick cost to remain relatively flat.

我們確實預計我們的棒和磚成本將保持相對穩定。

Okay.

好的。

That's just for the helpful.

那隻是為了有幫助的人。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

你們的下一個問題來自高盛的蘇珊‧馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Susan, your line is live.

蘇珊，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I just focusing a bit more on the cost side of the business.

我只是更專注於業務的成本方面。

We have seen lumber and wood product prices generally inflating over the last several weeks.

過去幾週，我們看到木材和木製品價格普遍上漲。

It feels like they're on a general upward trajectory as you think about the next several quarters.

當你考慮接下來的幾個季度時，感覺它們總體上處於上升軌道。

And there.

在那裡。

Can you talk about what you're seeing and how you're thinking about that element of the call structure in fiscal 25?

您能談談您所看到的情況以及您如何看待 25 財年呼叫結構中的這項要素嗎？

We have seen two.

我們見過兩個。

We have seen lumber come up some recently.

我們最近看到木材出現了一些。

And as we look at the next year, we're looking for relatively flat stick and brick.

當我們展望明年時，我們正在尋找相對平坦的棍子和磚塊。

We're getting good response from a labor markets that we stay trades looking for business, which tentatively so as we kind of look at it all, we aren't sure exactly where lumber goes as we move over the next several months.

我們從勞動市場得到了良好的反應，我們仍然在尋找業務，這是暫時的，所以當我們審視這一切時，我們不確定在接下來的幾個月木材會流向哪裡。

But I feel like like we don't expect much movement up or down and stick and brick over the next in 2025.

但我覺得我們預計 2025 年不會有太大的上下波動和停滯不前。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe turning to the rental side of the business.

然後也許會轉向業務的租賃方面。

You mentioned in your comments that you expect your inventory to hold flat for the next several years.

您在評論中提到，您預計未來幾年庫存將保持不變。

But as you do you think about the potential that rate stays relatively higher versus lower and there, can you just talk about the demand that you are seeing on that rental side and how you're thinking about managing that in meeting that need as well?

但是，當您考慮利率保持相對較高而不是較低的可能性時，您能否談談您在租賃方面看到的需求以及您如何考慮管理這一需求來滿足這一需求？

A quick clarification on the first part, the comment on our rental, and that's that was over the next several quarters haven't spoken out to future years.

對第一部分的快速澄清，即對我們租金的評論，這是在接下來的幾個季度中尚未談到的未來幾年。

That's going to depend on market conditions and where we get the return profile on that business in terms of what we're willing to invest in it.

這將取決於市場狀況以及我們從何處獲得該業務的回報（就我們願意投資的金額而言）。

Yes.

是的。

And I think overall, as we look at the market, we still see relatively solid demand in terms of the number of hires in the market.

我認為總體而言，當我們審視市場時，我們仍然看到市場上的招聘人數相對穩定的需求。

We've certainly seen a reduction in apartment starts consistently over the past 12 months.

在過去 12 個月裡，我們確實看到公寓開工量持續下降。

And I feel good about our positioning and the InvIT tour we have in production and the timing that it's going to come to market.

我對我們的定位、我們正在製作中的 InvIT 巡演以及它上市的時間感到滿意。

So still feel good about that segment.

所以對那一段還是感覺不錯。

And we will monitor it quarter to quarter in terms of what we do with our starch and positioning on a go-forward basis.

我們將逐季度監控我們的澱粉處理情況和未來的定位。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for that color and good luck with everything.

謝謝你的顏色，祝一切順利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your next question is coming from Jade Rahmani from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Jade Rahmani。

Jade, your line is live.

傑德，您的線路已上線。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

What level of rates would need would you need to see to spur demand?

您需要達到什麼水準的利率才能刺激需求？

Again, buyers off the sidelines as you've categorized would be around 100 basis point reduction?

同樣，按照您的分類，觀望的買家會減少約 100 個基點？

And would you need to see that through the 10-year treasury hard to predict what's going to drive the rates, whether it's the underlying 10-year benchmark or the spread to treasury, but more than any one given rate, I think stability in rates is most helpful for us and saying buyers demand and come off the sidelines.

你是否需要看到，透過 10 年期國庫券很難預測什麼將推動利率，無論是基本的 10 年期基準還是國債利差，但我認為利率的穩定性比任何一種給定利率都重要對我們最有幫助的是，買家有需求，但離場觀望。

So they're not waiting for rates to come down or were fearful.

因此，他們不會等待利率下降，也不會感到恐懼。

They're going up and they're going to escape favorability for stability is that we saw a tighter trading band in the mortgages in the third quarter, stronger sales environment, and there's some seasonality to that as well.

它們正在上漲，並將擺脫穩定的有利條件，因為我們看到第三季抵押貸款的交易範圍收緊，銷售環境更強勁，而且也存在一些季節性。

But we have more volatility in rates in the fourth quarter and that was a negative demand.

但第四季的利率波動更大，這是一個負需求。

In terms of the APR you're currently offering, is it in them is in the mid 5% range or low 5% range.

就您目前提供的年利率而言，是處於中 5% 範圍還是低 5% 範圍內。

You have seen at least one competitor in the fours, but most do seem to be in that five ish percent range.

你至少見過一位四人制選手，但大多數人似乎都在百分之五左右的範圍內。

Our offering across the market can kind of range in the mid-4 to mid-5, the averaged just over 5%.

我們在市場上提供的產品範圍在 4 到 5 之間，平均略高於 5%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's Q&A session.

今天的問答環節到此結束。

I would now like to hand the floor back to Paul Roman Askey for closing remarks.

現在我想將發言權交還給保羅·羅曼·阿斯基 (Paul Roman Askey)，他將發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you in January to share our first quarter results, congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family of successful fiscal 2024.

我們感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，並期待在一月份與您交談，分享我們第一季的業績，祝賀整個 D.R.霍頓家族 2024 財年取得成功。

Due to your efforts, we just completed our 23rd consecutive year as the largest builder in the United States.

由於你們的努力，我們剛剛完成了連續 23 年成為美國最大的建築商。

We are honored to represent to you on this call, and we look forward to everything we will accomplish together in fiscal 2025.

我們很榮幸能代表您參加這次電話會議，我們期待我們在 2025 財年共同完成的一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That does conclude today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

此時您可以斷開電話線，度過美好的一天。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。