霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States.

早安，歡迎參加 D.R. 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。霍頓，美國建築商，美國最大的建築商。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Tom, and good morning.

謝謝你，湯姆，早安。

Welcome to our call to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2024 financial results.

歡迎致電討論我們第四季和 2024 財年的財務表現。

Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

雖然 D.R.霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的資訊。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期，以及 D.R.霍頓不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and our most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致績效發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參見 D.R. Horton 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格最新季度報告均已向美國證券交易委員會提交。

This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-K in about three weeks.

今天早上的收益發布可以在我們的網站 Investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃在大約三週內提交 10-K 報表。

After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference.

此次電話會議後，我們將在投資者關係網站的新聞和活動下的簡報部分發布更新的投資者和補充資料簡報，供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to Paul Romanowski, our President and CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長 Paul Romanowski。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning.

謝謝你，潔西卡，早安。

I'm pleased to also be joined on this call by Michael Murray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我很高興我們的執行副總裁兼營運長 Michael Murray 也參加了這次電話會議。以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Wheat。

The D.R. Horton team produced solid results to finish the year, highlighted by consolidated pre-tax in income of $1.7billion on revenues of $10 billion with a pretax profit margin of 17.1%.

D.R. Horton 團隊在今年取得了穩健的業績，其中突出表現是綜合稅前收入為 17 億美元，營收為 100 億美元，稅前利潤率為 17.1%。

Earnings per diluted share for the fourth quarter were $3.92. For the year, earnings per diluted share increased 4% to $14.34 and our consolidated pretax income was $6.3 billion on revenues of $36.8 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 17.1%.

第四季稀釋後每股收益為 3.92 美元。今年，稀釋後每股收益成長 4%，達到 14.34 美元，綜合稅前收入為 63 億美元，收入為 368 億美元，稅前利潤率為 17.1%。

Our homebuilding pretax return on inventory for the year was 27.8%.

我們今年的住宅建築稅前庫存回報率為 27.8%。

Return on equity was 19.9% and return on assets was 13.9%.

股本報酬率為19.9%，資產報酬率為13.9%。

Our return on assets ranks in the top 25% of all S&P 500 companies for the past three-, five-, and ten-year periods.

在過去三年、五年和十年期間，我們的資產回報率在所有標準普爾 500 強公司中名列前 25%。

Our consolidated cash flow from operations for 2024 was $2.2 billion, and we returned all of the cash we generated this year to shareholders through repurchases and dividends.

2024 年我們的合併營運現金流為 22 億美元，我們將今年產生的所有現金透過回購和股利返還給股東。

Our fiscal 2024 share distributions increased by approximately $700 million or 44% from the prior year.

我們 2024 財年的股票分配比前一年增加了約 7 億美元，即 44%。

Over the past five years, we have generated $9 billion of cash flow from operations, and we have reduced our outstanding share count by 12%.

過去五年，我們的營運現金流量達到 90 億美元，流通股數減少了 12%。

For the quarter despite continued affordability challenges and competitive market conditions, our net sales orders increased slightly from the prior year.

儘管承受能力面臨持續挑戰和競爭激烈的市場條件，本季我們的淨銷售訂單仍較上年略有成長。

Our sales pace was in line with normal seasonality from the third to fourth quarter, but below our expectations.

從第三季到第四季度，我們的銷售速度符合正常季節性，但低於我們的預期。

While mortgage rates have decreased from their highs earlier this year, many potential homebuyers expect rates to be lower in 2025.

儘管抵押貸款利率已從今年稍早的高點下降，但許多潛在購屋者預計 2025 年利率將會更低。

We believe that the volatility of rates combined with general uncertainty during the election season is causing some buyers to stay on the sidelines in the near-term.

我們認為，利率的波動加上選舉季節的普遍不確定性，導致一些買家在短期內保持觀望。

To help spur demand and address affordability, we are continuing to use incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns, and we have continued to start and sell more of our smaller floor plans.

為了幫助刺激需求並解決負擔能力問題，我們將繼續使用抵押貸款利率購買等激勵措施，並繼續啟動和銷售更多較小的平面圖。

With 46% of fourth quarter closings also sold in the same quarter.

第四季成交量的 46% 也在同一季度售出。

Our sales incentive levels and gross margin are generally representative of current market conditions.

我們的銷售激勵水準和毛利率通常代表了當前的市場狀況。

We've typically experienced seasonally slower demand during the fall, and our tenured local operators seek to find the right balance of sales pace, pricing, and incentives in each community that will best position our returns and inventory levels before we enter the spring.

我們通常會在秋季經歷季節性需求放緩，我們的長期本地業者尋求在每個社區的銷售速度、定價和激勵措施之間找到適當的平衡，以便在進入春季之前最好地定位我們的退貨和庫存水準。

For the full year of fiscal 2025, our homebuilding volume and profit margins will largely be dependent on the strength of the upcoming spring selling season.

2025 財年全年，我們的房屋建築量和利潤率將在很大程度上取決於即將到來的春季銷售季節的強勁程度。

Overall, the demographic supporting housing demand are favorable, and we continue to see a generally limited supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points, in addition to a limited supply of finished lots available for new home construction.

總體而言，支持住房需求的人口結構是有利的，除了可用於新房建設的成品地塊供應有限之外，我們仍然看到價格實惠的新房和現房供應普遍有限。

With our focus on affordable product offerings, 37,400 homes in inventory, continued improvement in our construction cycle times and adequate finished lots available in our pipeline.

我們專注於提供價格實惠的產品，庫存量為 37,400 套房屋，施工週期時間不斷縮短，並且我們的管道中有足夠的成品地塊。

We are well positioned for fiscal 2025.

我們為 2025 財年做好了充分準備。

We remain focused on enhancing the capital efficiency of all of our operations to produce consistent sustainable returns and cash flows, so that we can return more capital to shareholders through both share repurchases and dividends.

我們仍然致力於提高所有業務的資本效率，以產生持續的可持續回報和現金流，以便我們可以透過股票回購和股息向股東返還更多資本。

Mike?

麥克風？

Earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024 decreased 12% to $3.92 per diluted share compared to $4.45 per share in the prior year quarter.

2024 財年第四季稀釋後每股收益下降 12%，至 3.92 美元，去年同期為 4.45 美元。

Earnings for the full year increased 4% to $14.34 per diluted share compared to $13.82 in fiscal 2023.

與 2023 財年的 13.82 美元相比，全年攤薄後每股收益成長 4%，達到 14.34 美元。

Net income for the quarter decreased 15% to $1.3 billion on consolidated revenues of $10 billion.

該季度淨利潤下降 15%，至 13 億美元，綜合收入為 100 億美元。

And for the year, net income increased slightly to $4.8 billion on revenues of $36.8 billion.

全年淨利小幅成長至 48 億美元，營收達 368 億美元。

Our fourth quarter home sales revenues were $8.9 billion on 23,647 homes closed compared to $8.8 billion on 22,928 homes closed in the prior year.

我們第四季的房屋銷售收入為 89 億美元，成交了 23,647 套房屋，而去年同期成交的房屋為 22,928 套，收入為 88 億美元。

Our average closing price for the quarter was $377,600, down 1%, both sequentially and from the prior year quarter.

我們本季的平均收盤價為 377,600 美元，比上一季和去年同期均下降 1%。

Bill?

帳單？

Our net sales orders in the fourth quarter increased slightly from the prior year quarter to 19,035 homes, and order value decreased 2% to $7.1 billion.

我們第四季的淨銷售訂單較上年同期略有增加，達到 19,035 套房屋，訂單價值下降 2% 至 71 億美元。

The sequential decline in our net sales orders was consistent with the prior year and in line with normal seasonality from the third to the fourth quarter.

我們的淨銷售訂單季減與上年一致，也符合第三季至第四季的正常季節性。

But both our home sales and closings this quarter were below our expectations.

但本季的房屋銷售和成交量均低於我們的預期。

Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 21%, up from 18% sequentially, and unchanged from the prior year quarter.

本季的取消率為 21%，高於上一季的 18%，與去年同期持平。

Our average number of active selling communities was flat sequentially and up 10% from the prior year.

我們的活躍銷售社群平均數量與上一季持平，比上一年增長 10%。

The average price of net sales orders in the fourth quarter was $375,400, down 1% sequentially and 2% from the prior year quarter.

第四季淨銷售訂單平均價格為 375,400 美元，比上一季下降 1%，比去年同期下降 2%。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the fourth quarter was 23.6%, down 40 basis points sequentially from the June quarter.

第四季房屋銷售收入毛利率為 23.6%，較 6 月季度較上季下降 40 個基點。

The decrease in our gross margin from June to September was primarily due to higher incentive costs on homes closed during the quarter.

6 月至 9 月毛利率下降主要是由於本季關閉房屋的激勵成本增加。

On a per-square-foot basis, home sales revenues were down roughly [1.5%] sequentially, while stick and brick cost per square foot decreased 1% and a lot costs increased 1.5%.

以每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入較上季下降約 [1.5%]，而每平方英尺的木棒和磚塊成本下降 1%，地塊成本增加 1.5%。

We anticipate our incentive levels to increase further on homes closed over the next few months, so we expect our home sales gross margin to be low in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

我們預計未來幾個月關閉房屋的誘因將進一步提高，因此我們預計第一季的房屋銷售毛利率將低於第四季。

Our incentive levels and home sales gross margin for the full year of fiscal 2025 will be dependent on the strength demand during the spring selling season, in addition to changes in mortgage interest rates and other market conditions.

除了抵押貸款利率和其他市場條件的變化外，我們 2025 財年全年的激勵水準和房屋銷售毛利率將取決於春季銷售季節的強勁需求。

Bill?

帳單？

In the fourth quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expenses incurred leased by 17% from last year.

第四季度，我們的住宅建築銷售、一般管理費用（SG&A）租賃費用比去年增加了 17%。

And homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.6%, up 100 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year.

住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 7.6%，比去年同期上升 100 個基點。

For the year, homebuilding SG&A was 7.5% of revenues of 40 basis points from fiscal 2023.

今年，住宅建築 SG&A 佔營收的 7.5%，比 2023 財年提高了 40 個基點。

Increased SG&A costs in both periods are primarily due to the expansion of our operating platform.

這兩個時期的銷售、管理及行政費用增加主要是由於我們營運平台的擴張。

Our employee and average community count are both up 10% from a year ago, while our market count increased to 125 markets and 36 states from 118 markets and 33 states.

我們的員工和平均社區數量都比一年前增加了 10%，而我們的市場數量從 118 個市場和 33 個州增加到 125 個市場和 36 個州。

Paul?

保羅？

We started 18,400 homes in the September quarter and ended the year with 37,400 homes in inventory, down 11% from a year ago and approximately 5,000 homes lower than at the end of June. 25,700 of our total homes at September 30 were unsold.

我們在 9 月季度開工了 18,400 套房屋，年底庫存量為 37,400 套，比去年同期下降 11%，比 6 月底減少了約 5,000 套。截至 9 月 30 日，我們共有 25,700 間房屋未售出。

10,300 of our unsold homes at year end was completed, of which 1,100 have been completed for greater than six months.

截至年底，我們已竣工 10,300 套未售出房屋，其中 1,100 套已竣工時間超過六個月。

The increase in unsold completed homes this quarter resulted from a combination of a seasonally slower sales pace and further improvement in our construction cycle times.

本季未售出的完工房屋增加是由於銷售速度季節性放緩和施工週期時間進一步改善共同造成的。

For homes we closed in the fourth quarter, our cycle time decreased by almost a week from the third quarter and a month from a year ago.

對於我們在第四季度關閉的房屋，我們的週期時間比第三季減少了近一周，比一年前減少了一個月。

Our improved cycle times, position us to turn our housing inventory faster and 2025, and we will continue to manage our homes in inventory and starts pace based on market conditions.

我們改進的周期時間使我們能夠在 2025 年更快地週轉我們的住房庫存，我們將繼續管理我們的住房庫存並根據市場狀況啟動步伐。

Mike?

麥克風？

Our homebuilding lot position at September 30 consisted of approximately 633,000 lots, of which 24% were owned and 76% were controlled through purchase contracts.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的住宅建築地塊部位約為 633,000 塊，其中 24% 為自有土地，76% 為透過購買合約控制。

We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to maximize returns.

我們仍然專注於與全國各地土地開發商的關係，以實現最大回報。

These relationship allow us to build more homes on lots developed by others.

這些關係使我們能夠在其他人開發的土地上建造更多房屋。

Of the homes we closed during the fourth quarter 64% were on a lot developed by either forestar or a third party, up from 62% in the prior year quarter.

在我們第四季關閉的房屋中，64% 是由forestar 或第三方開發的地塊，高於去年同期的 62%。

Our capital efficient and flexible lot portfolio is the key to our strong competitive position.

我們的資本效率和靈活的批次投資組合是我們保持強大競爭地位的關鍵。

Our fourth quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land, and development totaled $2.2 billion, of which $1.5 billion was for finished lots, $560 million was for land development, and $170 million was for land acquisition.

我們第四季在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 22 億美元，其中 15 億美元用於成品地塊，5.6 億美元用於土地開發，1.7 億美元用於土地收購。

For the year, our homebuilding investments in lots, land, and development totaled $9.5 billion, up 19% from fiscal 2023.

今年，我們在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 95 億美元，比 2023 財年增加 19%。

Paul?

保羅？

In the fourth quarter our rental operations generated $100 million of pretax income on $705 million of revenues from the sale of 1,692 single-family rental homes and 868 multi-family rental units.

第四季度，我們的租賃業務透過出售 1,692 套單戶出租房屋和 868 套多戶出租單位獲得 7.05 億美元收入，產生了 1 億美元稅前收入。

For the full year, our rental operations generated $229 million of pretax income of $1.7 billion of revenues from the sale of 3,970 single-family rental homes and 2,202 multifamily rental units.

全年，我們的租賃業務透過銷售 3,970 套單戶出租房屋和 2,202 套多戶出租單位產生了 17 億美元的稅前收入 2.29 億美元。

We continue to operate and merchant build model in which we construct and sell purpose-built rental communities.

我們繼續經營和商業建立模型，在該模型中我們建造和銷售專門建造的租賃社區。

Our rental operations provide synergies to our homebuilding operations by enhancing our purchasing scale and providing opportunities for more efficient utilization of trade labor and land parcels.

我們的租賃業務透過提高我們的採購規模並為更有效地利用貿易勞動力和地塊提供機會，為我們的住宅建築業務提供協同效應。

Our rental property inventory at September 30 was $2.9 billion, which consisted of $800 million of single-family rental properties and $2.1 billion of multi-family rental properties.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 29 億美元，其中包括 8 億美元的單戶出租物業和 21 億美元的多戶出租物業。

We expect our total rental inventory to remain around and the current level for the next several quarters.

我們預計未來幾季我們的租賃庫存總量將保持在目前水準左右。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company reported revenues of $551 million for the fourth quarter on 5,374 lots sold with pretax income of $109million.

我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司 Forestar 公佈，第四季營收為 5.51 億美元，售出 5,374 塊地塊，稅前收入為 1.09 億美元。

For the full year, forestar delivered 15,068 lots, generating $1.5 million of revenues and $270 million of pretax income with a pretax profit margin of 17.9%.

全年，forestar 交付了 15,068 件批次，創造了 150 萬美元的收入和 2.7 億美元的稅前收入，稅前利潤率為 17.9%。

Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at September 30 was 95,100. 65% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with are subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $430 million of our finished lots purchased in the fourth quarter were from forestar.

截至 9 月 30 日，Forestar 擁有和控制的持倉量為 95,100 手。 Forestar 65% 的自有土地均與 D.R. 簽訂了合同，並享有優先報價權。霍頓。我們在第四季購買的價值 4.3 億美元的成品地塊來自 forestar。

Forestar had approximately $860 million of liquidity at year end with a net debt to capital ratio of 12.4%.

截至年底，Forestar 擁有約 8.6 億美元的流動資金，淨債務與資本比率為 12.4%。

Our strategic relationship with forestar, is a vital component of our returns focused business model.

我們與forestar 的策略關係是我們以回報為中心的業務模式的重要組成部分。

Forestar's strong, separately capitalized balance sheet, growing operating platform, and lot supply, position them well to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry and to aggregate significant market share over the next several years.

Forestar 強大的獨立資本資產負債表、不斷增長的營運平台和地塊供應使其能夠充分利用住宅建築行業成品地塊的短缺，並在未來幾年內積累重要的市場份額。

Mike?

麥克風？

Financial services earned $76 million of pre-tax income in the fourth quarter on $222 million of revenues with a pre-tax profit margin of 34.2%.

金融服務第四季稅前收入為 7,600 萬美元，收入為 2.22 億美元，稅前利潤率為 34.2%。

For the year, financial services earned $311 million of pre-tax income on $883 million of revenues, with a pre-tax profit margin of 35.3%.

全年金融服務收入8.83億美元，稅前收入3.11億美元，稅前利潤率為35.3%。

During the fourth quarter, essentially all of our mortgage companies loan originations related to homes closed by our home building operations and our mortgage company handled the financing for 77% of our buyers.

在第四季度，基本上我們所有的抵押貸款公司發放的貸款都與我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋有關，並且我們的抵押貸款公司為 77% 的買家處理了融資。

FHA and VA loans accounted for 60% of the mortgage company's volume.

FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司貸款量的 60%。

Borrowers originating with DHI mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 724 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 88%.

本季源自 DHI 抵押貸款的借款人的平均 FICO 評分為 724，平均貸款價值比為 88%。

First-time homebuyers represented 59% of the closings handled by our mortgage company this quarter.

首次購屋者占我們抵押貸款公司本季處理的成交量的 59%。

Bill?

帳單？

Our capital allocation strategy is disciplined and balanced to sustain an operating platform that produces consistent returns, growth, and cash flow.

我們的資本配置策略嚴謹且平衡，以維持一個能夠產生持續回報、成長和現金流的營運平台。

We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and substantial liquidity, which provides us with significant financial flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions and opportunities.

我們擁有強大的資產負債表、低槓桿率和大量流動性，這為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性，以適應不斷變化的市場條件和機會。

During fiscal 2024, our consolidated cash provided by operations was $2.2 billion, and we distributed all of the cash we generated through share repurchases and dividends to enhance shareholder returns.

2024財年，我們的營運提供的綜合現金為22億美元，我們透過股票回購和股利分配了所有產生的現金，以提高股東回報。

During the quarter, we repurchased 3.4 million shares of common stock for $561 million.

本季度，我們以 5.61 億美元的價格回購了 340 萬股普通股。

And for the year, we repurchased 12.5 million shares for $1.8 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 3% from the prior year end.

今年，我們以 18 億美元回購了 1,250 萬股股票，這使我們的流通股數量比上年末減少了 3%。

Our remaining share repurchase authorization at September 30 was $3.6 billion.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們剩餘的股票回購授權為 36 億美元。

During the quarter, we also paid cash dividends of $98 million for a total of $395 million of dividends paid during the year.

本季度，我們還支付了 9,800 萬美元的現金股息，全年支付的股息總額為 3.95 億美元。

On September 30, we had $7.6 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $4.5 billion of cash and $3.1 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們擁有 76 億美元的綜合流動性，其中包括 45 億美元的現金和 31 億美元的信貸額度可用能力。

In August, we issued $700 million of senior notes due 2034.

8 月份，我們發行了 7 億美元、2034 年到期的優先票據。

Our debt at September 30 totaled $5.9 billion.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的債務總額為 59 億美元。

Subsequent to year end, we repaid $500 million of senior notes at maturity and we have no additional maturities in fiscal 2025.

年底後，我們償還了到期的 5 億美元優先票據，我們在 2025 財年沒有額外的到期日。

Our consolidated leverage at September 30 was 18.9% and leverage net of cash was 5.2%.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為 18.9%，扣除現金後的槓桿率為 5.2%。

We plan to maintain our leverage around 20% over the long-term.

我們計劃長期將槓桿率維持在20%左右。

At September 30, our stockholders equity was $25.3 billion and book value per share was $78.12, up 15% from a year ago.

截至9月30日，我們的股東權益為253億美元，每股帳面價值為78.12美元，比去年同期成長15%。

For the year, our return on equity was 19.9%, and our return on assets was 13.9%.

今年，我們的股本報酬率為19.9%，資產報酬率為13.9%。

Based on our strong financial position and cash flow, our Board recently increased our quarterly cash dividend by 33% to $0.40 per share.

基於我們強勁的財務狀況和現金流，我們的董事會最近將季度現金股息增加了 33% 至每股 0.40 美元。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Looking forward, our fiscal 2025 business plan was built from the community level up the beginning with our lot position.

展望未來，我們的 2025 財年業務計畫從社區層級開始，從我們的地段位置開始製定。

With a return to more normal seasonality, we expect our results for the full year were largely be dependent on the strength of this spring.

隨著季節性的回歸，我們預計全年的業績在很大程度上取決於今年春季的強度。

As outlined in our press release this morning, for the full year of fiscal 2025, we expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $36 billion to $37.5 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 90,000 to 92,000 homes.

正如我們今天上午的新聞稿中所述，2025 財年全年，我們預計將產生約 360 億至 375 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 90,000 至 92,000 套之間。

We forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2025 of approximately 24.5%.

我們預計 2025 財年的所得稅稅率約為 24.5%。

We expect to generate more cash flow from operations in fiscal 2025 in fiscal 2024 and to utilize a substantial portion of our cash flows to enhance shareholder returns.

我們預計2024財年將從2025財年的營運中產生更多現金流，並利用大部分現金流來提高股東回報。

We currently plan to repurchase approximately $2.4 billion of our common stock this year, in addition to making annual dividend payments of around $500 million.

目前，我們計劃今年回購約 24 億美元的普通股，此外還支付約 5 億美元的年度股利。

For our first fiscal quarter ended December 31, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of $6.8 billion to $7.3 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 17,500 to 18,000 homes.

截至 12 月 31 日的第一財季，我們目前預計將產生 68 億至 73 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 17,500 至 18,000 套之間。

We expect our home sales gross margin in the first quarter to be around 22.5% and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues to be approximately 8.9%.

我們預計第一季房屋銷售毛利率約為 22.5%，房屋建築 SG&A 佔收入的百分比約為 8.9%。

We anticipate the finance services pretax profit margin of around 20% in the first quarter, and we expect our income tax rate for the quarter to be approximately 24.5%.

我們預計第一季金融服務稅前利潤率約為20%，我們預計該季度的所得稅稅率約為24.5%。

Paul?

保羅？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry leading market share, broad geographic footprint, and focus on affordable product offerings.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、領先業界的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及對價格實惠的產品的關注。

All of these are key components of our operating platform that sustain our ability to produce consistent returns, growth, and cash flow while continuing to aggregate market share.

所有這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分，維持我們產生持續回報、成長和現金流的能力，同時繼續聚合市場份額。

We have significant financial flexibility and we plan to maintain our disciplined approach to capital allocation and provide consistently high returns to our shareholders to enhance the long-term value of our company.

我們擁有顯著的財務靈活性，我們計劃保持嚴格的資本配置方法，為股東提供持續的高回報，以提高公司的長期價值。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton, family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors, and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work.

感謝整個 D.R.霍頓、員工家屬、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人，感謝你們的持續努力和辛勤工作。

We look forward to working together to improve our operations and provide homeownership opportunities to more individuals and families during 2025.

我們期待共同努力，改善我們的運營，並在 2025 年為更多個人和家庭提供擁有住房的機會。

This concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

We will now host questions.

我們現在將主持提問。

(Operator Instructions) Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Stephen Kim，Evercore ISI。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks very much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

I appreciate the colour.

我很欣賞這種顏色。

I wanted to ask a couple of questions regarding your guide.

我想問一些關於您的指南的問題。

First of all, I think in particular, your revenue guide can be influenced a lot by rental revenue.

首先，我特別認為，您的收入指南可能會受到租金收入的很大影響。

And the other factor that you didn't give was also the ASP for closing.

您沒有提供的另一個因素也是成交的平均售價。

So just one good to see if you could help us disaggregate a little bit.

所以，很高興看看你是否能幫助我們稍微分解。

What are you assuming in terms of rental revenue, maybe, sequentially or year over year, however, you think is best?

您對租金收入有何假設，可能是連續的還是逐年的，但您認為最好？

I'm thinking about it in revenue dollars and both for the first quarter and for the full year guide.

我正在考慮第一季和全年收入的收入。

Yeah, Steve, implied in our consolidated revenue guide would be relatively flat rental revenues year over year.

是的，史蒂夫，我們的綜合收入指南中暗示租金收入將比去年同期相對持平。

We would expect those revenues to be weighted a little heavier in the back half of the year than in the first half of the year.

我們預計下半年這些收入的權重將比上半年稍重。

And so a little bit lighter in the first quarter as well.

因此第一季的情況也稍微輕鬆一些。

In terms of ASP, we're assuming relatively flat ASP with recent trends.

就平均售價而言，我們假設平均售價與最近的趨勢相對持平。

Of course that's going to be subject to market conditions going forward into the spring as well as incentive levels.

當然，這將取決於春季的市場狀況以及激勵程度。

Got you.

明白你了。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then second question, I wanted to sort of delve a little bit into the your comment about market conditions, which I think we all realized, you know, it's tough out there.

然後是第二個問題，我想深入研究您對市場狀況的評論，我想我們都意識到，您知道，市場情況很艱難。

But in particular, you talked about how you think that buyers are sort of on the sideline's kind of waiting, maybe the election, maybe just affordability.

但特別是，您談到了您認為買家在某種程度上處於觀望狀態的等待，也許是選舉，也許只是負擔能力。

And so, I wanted to see if we could disaggregate that.

因此，我想看看我們是否可以將其分解。

Can you talk about what you're seeing with respect to your interest lists or traffic?

您能談談您在興趣清單或流量方面看到的情況嗎？

And help us maybe draw a distinction between what you're seeing today versus what you saw in other previous times when buyers kind of went on strike, like maybe the back half of calendar 2022, for example.

並幫助我們區分您今天所看到的情況與先前買家罷工時（例如 2022 年日曆後半段）所看到的情況。

Just to help us get a better sense of how much of this is actual true on affordability versus psychological effects causing people to wait on the sidelines?

只是為了幫助我們更了解負擔能力與導致人們觀望的心理影響有多少是真實的？

Yeah, Steve, it certainly is a combination of both, but we are seeing our buyers sit on the sidelines, sit on the fence, a little less motivated today than they were previously in prior quarters.

是的，史蒂夫，這當然是兩者的結合，但我們看到我們的買家坐在場邊，騎牆觀望，今天的積極性比之前幾個季度的要低一些。

And affordability has been challenged.

負擔能力也受到了挑戰。

We still see consistent traffic.

我們仍然看到穩定的流量。

It was below our expectations in the quarter and hence the results in terms of total sales, but still we were up year over year.

本季的業績低於我們的預期，因此總銷售額也低於我們的預期，但我們仍然比去年同期成長。

I would say that for the quarter and our sales were in line with normal seasonality,

我想說的是，本季我們的銷售額符合正常的季節性，

I don't think this is a structural issue with demand.

我認為這不是需求的結構性問題。

There's just a lot of noise in the market today.

今天市場上有很多噪音。

The rate volatility we've seen combined with the election news that's out there, I just think we're seeing people take a pause, but it certainly is a stretch today and we got to continue to focus on affordability to make sure we get the product and monthly payment and positioned for our people to move forward.

我們看到的利率波動與那裡的選舉消息相結合，我只是認為我們看到人們暫停了，但這肯定是一個延伸，我們必須繼續關注負擔能力，以確保我們得到產品和每月付款，並為我們的員工前進奠定了基礎。

Just a clarification there.

只是有一個澄清。

Are you looking for mortgage rates to come down next year?

您是否希望明年抵押貸款利率下降？

Is that what's embedded in your guide?

這是您指南中嵌入的內容嗎？

No.

不。

We wouldn't expect, and we aren't going to manage our business around that expectation one way or another.

我們不會期望，我們也不會以這種或那種方式圍繞著這種期望來管理我們的業務。

We're going to continue to respond to the market as we go week-to-week and month-to-month.

我們將繼續每週、每月對市場做出反應。

Got it, Okay.

明白了，好的。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Matthew Bouley, Barclays.

馬修·鮑利，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

So looking at the delivery guide of 90,000 to 92,000 in 2025, and comparing that versus, I guess, the 37,000 homes in inventory you have at the moment, I guess that ratio is maybe a little bit higher than it typically is and during the year.

因此，請看看 2025 年 90,000 至 92,000 套的交付指南，並將其與目前庫存中的 37,000 套房屋進行比較，我想這個比率可能比今年的通常情況要高一些。

So is there kind of an expectation for maybe a bigger ramp and starts as you get into the spring?

那麼，當你進入春天時，是否會有更大的坡道和啟動的預期？

Or are you saying that kind of cycle times have come down to such a degree wher you can have that kind of ratio where it is?

還是你是說這種週期時間已經下降到可以達到這樣的比率的程度？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt, I think we're looking at both actually to come into play in 2025.

馬特，我認為我們正在考慮這兩者在 2025 年真正發揮作用。

We have seen tremendous improvement in our cycle times over the past year and continuing through the fourth quarter with our lot position that we have our ability to lean into starts with the market.

在過去的一年裡，我們的周期時間取得了巨大的進步，並在第四季度繼續保持我們的定位，我們有能力從市場開始傾斜。

As we see the market unfold, we'll be able to present the starts and we feel really good about our ability to turn that opening housing inventory, what it implies almost 1.5 times in fiscal 2025.

當我們看到市場展開時，我們將能夠展示開工情況，並且我們對我們將開工住房庫存週轉的能力感到非常滿意，這意味著在 2025 財年幾乎翻了 1.5 倍。

Yeah.

是的。

So for the first quarter, our starts probably only step up slightly from where they were in Q4, and they're lower than the average for the full year.

因此，對於第一季度，我們的開工率可能僅比第四季度略有上升，並且低於全年平均值。

So we would expect a pickup as we move into the spring.

因此，當我們進入春季時，我們預計會出現回升。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

And then on the topic of building smaller floor plans, apologies if I missed the number, but I guess what was your home size down in Q4?

然後，關於建造較小的平面圖的主題，如果我錯過了這個數字，我很抱歉，但我猜你在第四季度的房屋面積縮小了多少？

And kind of what is the expectation for home sizes that you're embedding in 2025?

您對 2025 年嵌入的房屋尺寸有何期望？

And beyond just the numbers, I'm curious if you could just speak about that kind of balance of affordability versus kind of how you think about the efficiency of building smaller home.

除了數字之外，我很好奇您是否可以談談負擔能力與您如何看待建造小型房屋的效率之間的平衡。

So kind of what goes into that decision?

那麼這個決定是出於什麼考量呢？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'll start with the specifics and then Paul can give you his commentary on where he thinks we're going.

我將從具體細節開始，然後保羅可以就他認為我們的發展方向向您發表評論。

And in terms of square footage for the quarter, we were down and again, both 1% sequentially and year over year.

就本季的面積而言，我們一再下降，較上季和年比均下降 1%。

And part of that driver as we continue to see attached product, predominantly townhomes, making up a bigger percentage of our closings mix.

這是這個驅動因素的一部分，因為我們繼續看到附加產品（主要是聯排別墅）在我們的成交組合中所佔的比例更大。

So we are roughly 15% of our closings this quarter were attached product and versus detached single-family homes.

因此，本季約 15% 的成交量是附屬產品，而不是獨立的單戶住宅。

And we do see efficiency in the smaller plans, and that helps us to position as we enter into this spring market for our ability to deliver.

我們確實看到了較小計劃的效率，這有助於我們在進入春季市場時定位我們的交付能力。

We have purposefully reduced a number of homes we have in the market because of that ability.

由於這種能力，我們有目的地減少了市場上的房屋數量。

No significant shift overall, other than we just need to continue to drive to affordable price points and affordable monthly payments and that comes from a lean towards smaller product.

總體而言，沒有重大轉變，除了我們只需要繼續推動可承受的價格點和可承受的每月付款，而這來自於對較小產品的傾斜。

That being said, we still do have our move up and freedom buyers that will continue to provide what it is that they're looking for in the marketplace.

話雖這麼說，我們仍然有我們的升級和自由買家，他們將繼續提供他們在市場上尋找的東西。

All right.

好的。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Good luck.

祝你好運。

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Thanks for taking my questions as well.

也感謝您回答我的問題。

The first one is that, I think, you just described the inventory in the market is generally limited supply of new and existing homes.

第一個是，我認為您剛才描述的市場庫存一般是新房和現房供應有限。

Just curious if you saw some more sitting in that trend as the quarter progressed?

只是好奇隨著本季度的進展，您是否看到更多人處於這種趨勢？

And if so, are there particular markets where you're seeing more inventory come online?

如果是這樣，您是否在某些特定市場上看到更多庫存上線？

And how are you feeling about that overall conditions in that regard?

您對這方面的整體情況有何看法？

The overall numbers haven't grown significantly.

整體數字並沒有顯著成長。

I think with the low number of sales you're saying, the month's supply continues to expand, but still at the price points that we compete at, we see limited supply across most of our markets.

我認為，由於您所說的銷售量較低，本月的供應量繼續擴大，但仍處於我們競爭的價格點，我們發現大多數市場的供應量有限。

And with people still that lock-in effect still impact and people from the low mortgage rate that they have, we're just not seeing that supply growth in a significant way.

由於人們仍然受到鎖定效應的影響，而且人們也受到低抵押貸款利率的影響，我們只是沒有看到供應大幅增加。

We still feel very good about our competitive abilities with a new home in our ability to offer a more attractive rate and end markets where there's pressure on insurance.

我們仍然對我們的競爭能力感到非常滿意，因為我們有能力提供更具吸引力的價格和保險壓力較大的終端市場。

We see consistent and relatively stable insurance premiums, which are a competitive advantage against the resale market.

我們看到持續且相對穩定的保費，這是相對於轉售市場的競爭優勢。

Understood.

明白了。

And then on the first quarter gross margin outlook of 22.5%, that 110 basis point step down, I think you guys attributed the majority of that to just step up in incentives.

然後，第一季毛利率前景為 22.5%，下降了 110 個基點，我認為你們將其中大部分歸因於激勵措施的加強。

Just want to make sure that, that is the case.

只是想確定一下，情況確實如此。

And if so, can you just help us with what our current incentive levels as a percentage of revenue?

如果是這樣，您能否幫助我們了解目前的激勵程度佔收入的百分比？

And what are you expecting those to trend over the next few months?

您預計未來幾個月這些趨勢會如何？

Yeah, that's right, John.

是的，沒錯，約翰。

The step down in our guide for margin Q1 is due to higher incentives.

我們第一季保證金指南的下調是由於更高的激勵措施。

And really, we started seeing those higher level incentives later in Q4.

事實上，我們在第四季晚些時候開始看到這些更高層級的激勵措施。

Our margins in the month of September was lower than it was in July and August, and we expect that trend to continue into Q1.

我們 9 月份的利潤率低於 7 月和 8 月，我們預計這一趨勢將持續到第一季。

And it's based on volatility in rates, where rates have recently regarding the costs of our interest rate buydowns is increasing.

它是基於利率的波動性，最近我們的利率購買成本正在增加。

And so that's why we expect our incentive levels to increase further into Q1 on a year-over-year basis.

因此，我們預計第一季的激勵水準將比去年同期進一步提高。

Do you have some stats, Jessica?

傑西卡，你有一些統計數據嗎？

Yeah, I'll give you just the buyers that had a rate buydown associated with it.

是的，我只會向您提供與之相關的利率下調的買家。

So of the buyers utilizing our mortgage company during the quarter, over 80% had some form of a rate buydown, which was flat sequentially, but it was up from 74% a year ago.

因此，在本季度使用我們抵押貸款公司的買家中，超過 80% 的人進行了某種形式的利率下調，與上一季持平，但高於一年前的 74%。

And so that equates to 63% of our overall closings in the fourth quarter, which was also relatively flat sequentially.

因此，這相當於我們第四季總成交量的 63%，與上一季相比也相對持平。

So it's not necessarily an increasing percentage of buyers utilizing that.

因此，使用該功能的買家比例不一定會增加。

It really is just the cost associated with the buydown.

這實際上只是與購買相關的成本。

And I think with the substantial majority of our closings already being brought down through our mortgage company, that would be the continued expectation is it's just going to be the cost level, not necessarily a significant higher percentage of buyers that would utilize it.

我認為，由於我們的大部分成交已經透過我們的抵押貸款公司完成，這將是持續的預期，這只是成本水平，而不一定是使用它的買家比例明顯更高。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you, guys.

謝謝你們，夥計們。

Carl Reichardt, BTIG.

卡爾雷查特 (Carl Reichardt)，BTIG。

Thanks, everybody.

謝謝大家。

Just one two-parter, can you talk at all about any impact from hurricanes on aps traffic, the communities themselves?

只有兩個人，您能談談颶風對 aps 流量和社區本身的影響嗎？

And then has there been any positive or negative impact given your reliance on buyer's brokers?

那麼，考慮到您對買方經紀人的依賴，是否有任何正面或負面的影響？

It’s a big focus for you, has been for a long time.

長期以來，這一直是您關注的重點。

Any impact from the settlement to driving traffic sales rates at all or cost?

和解對提高流量銷售率有什麼影響或成本嗎？

Yeah, Carl, I'll take the first part of that question.

是的，卡爾，我將回答這個問題的第一部分。

First of all, the hurricanes just horrified as everyone else, with the impact that had on so many families across the across those regions.

首先，颶風和其他颶風一樣令人震驚，對這些地區的許多家庭造成了影響。

Fortunately, the D.R. Horton family, our employees and our homeowners fared very well in those storms.

幸運的是，D.R.霍頓家族、我們的員工和房主在這些風暴中都表現得很好。

We did not have a significant impact on our communities.

我們沒有對我們的社區產生重大影響。

Thankfully, with the current building codes we build to we see those communities performed very well in adverse weather events.

值得慶幸的是，根據我們制定的現行建築規範，我們看到這些社區在惡劣天氣事件中表現得非常好。

At the same time, you see the crews responding, utility crews and unicipalities focuses diverted to restoring services to residents and rightly so.

同時，你會看到工作人員做出反應，公用事業工作人員和市政當局將重點轉移到恢復居民服務上，這是正確的。

And so that can slow down power electrification for us to conclude on inspections and some of that processing, but because the timing issue rather than any kind of a permanent effect on the business.

因此，這可能會減慢電力電氣化速度，以便我們完成檢查和部分處理，但因為時間問題而不是對業務產生任何永久性影響。

So we feel very fortunate as D.R. Horton, the D.R. Horton family, got through these storms pretty well.

所以身為 D.R.，我們感到非常幸運。霍頓，D.R.霍頓家族很好地度過了這些風暴。

As far as the NAR settlement and realtor community response, they seem to have been handling it well, they're largely adjusting to what they need to do to satisfy the requirements of the NAR settlements.

就 NAR 和解協議和房地產經紀人社區的反應而言，他們似乎處理得很好，他們很大程度上正在調整以滿足 NAR 和解協議的要求。

I haven't seen much of a significant shift one way or the other in terms of traffic and/or much change in broker commissions.

就流量和/或經紀商佣金而言，我沒有看到任何重大變化。

I think that will play out over time.

我認為這會隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

But again, with a limited number of homes generally available across market, we still have our regulators that have been consistent in their performance with us, still showing up in our sales offices and able to navigate the requirements of the settlement.

但同樣，由於市場上可供出售的房屋數量有限，我們的監管機構仍然與我們保持一致，仍然出現在我們的銷售辦公室，並能夠滿足和解的要求。

Alright.

好吧。

Thanks for that.

謝謝你。

And then you talked about employee an average store count up quite a bit in fiscal '24.

然後你談到了 24 財年平均商店的員工人數。

As you're looking at '25, what are your expectations for what we might see in terms of the flattening of that store count growth or a slowdown in the number of a new market you'd add so that we can we might get better SG&A leverage next year?

當您考慮 25 年時，您對我們可能會看到的商店數量增長趨於平緩或您添加的新市場數量放緩的期望是什麼，以便我們可以變得更好明年的SG&A槓桿？

Or do you expect to continue to grow this pretty aggressively?

或者您預計會繼續大幅成長嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Clearly, we have been making an investment in these new markets to prepare for some growth.

顯然，我們一直在對這些新市場進行投資，為一些成長做好準備。

And as we grow into that, I would expect those growth rates to moderate a bit.

隨著我們的發展，我預計這些成長率會放緩。

The community count growth has been near double digit, high single to low double for the last year or so.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，社區數量的成長接近兩位數，從高點到低點的兩倍。

And so naturally, we'd expect that to start to moderate back towards the mid-single digit level as well.

因此，我們自然預期這一數字也將開始回落至中個位數水準。

So yes, we always want to make sure on to control our SG&A, but we have been making some investments here recently, that we do expect will support a higher growth level going forward.

所以，是的，我們總是希望確保控制我們的銷售管理費用，但我們最近一直在這裡進行一些投資，我們確實預計這將支持未來更高的成長水平。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Thanks everyone.

謝謝大家。

Sam Reid, Wells Fargo.

薩姆·里德，富國銀行。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

So it sounds like gross margin moved lower intra quarter September versus July, August.

因此，與 7 月、8 月相比，9 月季度內的毛利率似乎有所下降。

And then as you look to your guidance for the fourth quarter, that 22.5% kind of is that 22.5% in line with the exit rate from the last quarter?

然後，當您查看第四季度的指導時，22.5% 是否與上季度的退出率一致？

Or does it imply that November, December will be below October levels?

或者這是否意味著 11 月、12 月將低於 10 月的水平？

Yeah.

是的。

Great question, Sam.

好問題，山姆。

It is incorporated in our guide that our September month of closings was our lowest gross margin of the quarter.

我們的指南中指出，九月的結帳月份是本季毛利率最低的月份。

Not quite to where we expect to be for the full year of Q1 because as we said, we do expect to have further increases in incentive costs, but not far off from where we were in the September month.

與我們預計第一季全年的情況不太一樣，因為正如我們所說，我們確實預計激勵成本會進一步增加，但與 9 月的情況相差不遠。

Got you.

明白你了。

And then, wanted to touch on your completed unsold inventories around 10,300.

然後，想談談您大約 10,300 件已完成的未售出庫存。

I'm just wanted to see if there was any detail specifically on geographic dispersion, whether you're seeing a concentration of completed unsold inventories and some of the focused markets that investors are interested in like Florida and Texas?

我只是想看看是否有關於地理分佈的任何詳細信息，您是否看到已完成的未售庫存集中以及投資者感興趣的一些重點市場（例如佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州）？

No, no geographic sensitivity or place where we've seen that those units stack-up across the board and across our footprint, we've seen improvement in our cycle times.

不，沒有地理敏感性或我們看到這些單元在我們的足跡中全面堆積的地方，我們已經看到了我們的週期時間的改善。

And sales being slightly below our expectations in the quarter is why we've seen that increase in completed inventory.

本季的銷售額略低於我們的預期，這就是我們看到完工庫存增加的原因。

We still are not saying it's sit around and age, and that's when we start to get concerned, we do expect that our completed inventory over the next few quarters will start to trend back down as we've hit sales pace we need community by community and have adjusted starts where we needed to, so that we have the homes we're comfortable with today.

我們仍然不是說它已經閒置了，這就是我們開始擔心的時候，我們確實預計，隨著我們達到銷售速度，我們需要逐個社區地進行銷售，我們預計未來幾個季度的完成庫存將開始下降。在我們需要的地方調整了起點，以便我們擁有今天舒適的家。

And we need to adjust that completed number down over the next few quarters.

我們需要在接下來的幾個季度內調整完成的數字。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

I'll pause it on.

我會暫停它。

Michael Rehaut JP Morgan.

麥可雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut) 摩根大通。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I appreciate you taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I want to delve a little bit into regional color, if possible.

如果可能的話，我想深入研究一下區域色彩。

And apologies if I missed this earlier, but with all the focus on Florida and Texas, obviously, and around inventory levels, I know that you've kind of stated a couple of times they feel like that, that perhaps on a broad basis is not an issue.

如果我之前錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但顯然，所有的注意力都集中在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州，以及庫存水平，我知道你已經說過幾次他們有這樣的感覺，也許在廣泛的基礎上是不是問題。

But just trying to get a sense when you think about particularly the guide kind of flat to up low single digits for closings, does that reflect any regional challenges?

但是，當您特別考慮成交量指數持平到上升低個位數時，只是想了解一下，這是否反映了任何區域挑戰？

Or maybe just more broadly, if you can kind of give us a sense of where you feel demand is stronger versus weaker across your footprint?

或者更廣泛地說，您能否讓我們了解您認為您的足跡中哪些地方的需求更強，哪些地方需求更弱？

I don't think the guidance is reflecting any concern with a given region.

我認為該指南並未反映出對特定地區的任何擔憂。

The biggest markets that we've been in Florida and Texas are also very competitive markets.

我們在佛羅裡達州和德克薩斯州的最大市場也是競爭非常激烈的市場。

And so as the buyers have taken a pause that's been reflected, I think, across the footprint of those markets.

因此，我認為，隨著買家的暫停，這已經反映在這些市場的足跡上。

And looking forward into the guide and expectations for next year, that was built largely on the basis of available loss that we have, that we have a comfort level around start space that will lean into as we see spring and fall.

展望明年的指南和期望，這主要是建立在我們現有的可用損失的基礎上的，我們在起始空間方面有一個舒適度，隨著我們看到春天和秋天，這個空間將會傾斜。

And we have the capacity to adjust that start to face reflective of the spring selling conditions.

我們有能力根據春季銷售狀況來調整這一開始。

Okay.

好的。

Now I appreciate that.

現在我很欣賞這一點。

I guess secondly, you mentioned that throughout the quarter of September, was your lower margin months with higher incentives?

我想其次，您提到整個 9 月這個季度，您的利潤率較低的月份是否有較高的激勵措施？

I was curious and again, apologies, I missed this earlier, but wanted to get a sense destroy demand and order growth standpoint, sales pace standpoint.

我很好奇，再次抱歉，我之前錯過了這一點，但我想從破壞需求和訂單成長的角度、銷售速度的角度來了解一下。

We've heard some of your competitors talk to September being the strongest month in the quarter.

我們聽說你們的一些競爭對手稱 9 月為本季表現最強勁的月份。

And I was just kind of wondering if that's what you saw from in a sales pace or an order growth standpoint.

我只是想知道這是否是您從銷售速度或訂單成長的角度看到的。

Obviously, rates fluctuated a lot during the quarter, but there was perhaps at points into August, September, a little bit of a lower point from a rate standpoint.

顯然，本季利率波動很大，但從利率的角度來看，可能在 8 月、9 月的某個時間點出現了一點較低的情況。

So just kind of curious on what you saw, how things trended during the quarter and where September was relative to the rest?

所以只是對您所看到的情況感到好奇，該季度的趨勢如何，以及 9 月份相對於其他月份的情況如何？

I think we saw pretty choppy sales environment through the quarter.

我認為整個季度我們的銷售環境相當不穩定。

If we look at the chart of the mortgage rates we started the quarter just under 7%.

如果我們看一下抵押貸款利率圖表，我們本季開始時的利率略低於 7%。

We ended the quarter just about 6%.

本季結束時，我們的成長率僅為 6% 左右。

And it is a pretty smooth trajectory down, I think that affected a lot of buyers psyche and thinking about, wow, the rates are on a good trend.

這是一個相當平穩的下降軌跡，我認為這影響了很多買家的心理並思考，哇，利率正處於良好的趨勢。

I'm going to keep riding that trend before I jump, Ben, and then lo and behold, we saw October turnaround after the Fed cuts rates are up 50 basis points in the month of October.

在我跳躍之前，我將繼續順應這一趨勢，Ben，然後你瞧，在美聯儲 10 月份降息 50 個基點之後，我們看到了 10 月份的轉變。

So it's kind of crazy predicting interest rates.

所以預測利率有點瘋狂。

So the hard hard to see any discernible trend other than we saw some choppy sales and a buyer that was on pause.

因此，除了我們看到一些波動的銷售和暫停的買家之外，很難看到任何明顯的趨勢。

And still have during the month of October to date and just with continued rate volatility.

迄今為止，10 月仍然如此，而且利率持續波動。

Okay.

好的。

Very good.

非常好。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

艾倫·拉特納，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Thanks for the time and information so far.

感謝您到目前為止的時間和資訊。

My question, I guess, relates to just the broader strategy that you've had, as long as we've been covering Horton, which is to consolidate market share.

我想，我的問題與你們所擁有的更廣泛的策略有關，只要我們一直在報道霍頓，那就是鞏固市場份額。

And I guess what I'm thinking about it, you've heard from several other of your larger peers, a goal or target to grow in '25 by 5% to 10% rate on closings orders, whatever the metric you're looking at. and your guide is obviously a bit below that in '25.

我想我在想什麼，你已經從其他幾個較大的同行那裡聽說過，無論你正在尋找什麼指標，目標或目標是在 25 年以 5% 至 10% 的速度增長，以結束訂單在。你的指南顯然比 25 年的低。

And I know it's preliminary and I know it can obviously move around based on how the spring unfolds.

我知道這只是初步的，而且我知道它顯然可以根據春天的發展方式而移動。

But on the surface right now, we would look like at least in the near term, you don't expect to be taking a significant amount of market share.

但目前從表面上看，至少在短期內，我們預計不會佔據大量市場份額。

So I'm curious when you think about that outlook, is that a function of you see maybe some more aggressive incentives out in the market from some of your competitors that you don't feel the need or desire to match right now to do what you need to do to actually take share?

因此，當您考慮這種前景時，我很好奇，您是否會看到市場上的一些競爭對手可能會採取一些更積極的激勵措施，而您現在不認為有必要或渴望匹配這些激勵措施來做什麼你需要做什麼才能真正獲得份額？

Do you think that some of the guides out there might prove to be too aggressive?

您是否認為某些指南可能過於激進？

Is it a function of a price point differential might be stronger activity at higher price points?

它是價格點差異的函數嗎？

Just curious, if you can kind of talk about the competitive dynamics that would seemingly set you guys up for a year of no meaningful share growth.

只是好奇，如果你能談談競爭動態，這似乎會讓你們在一年內沒有有意義的份額成長。

Alan, we do feel very good about our position.

艾倫，我們確實對自己的處境感到非常滿意。

We are still well ahead of the spring selling season.

我們仍然遠遠領先春季銷售季節。

We do have a lot position.

我們確實有很多立場。

We have the inventory and cycle time improvement that we need to lean into the market.

我們擁有進入市場所需的庫存和週期時間改進。

If we see a stronger market in the spring.

如果我們在春季看到更強勁的市場。

Our operators are always going to have a higher goal than the numbers that we're reaching to.

我們的營運商總是會有比我們要達到的數字更高的目標。

And it's not a significant shift other than a guide as best we see it today.

正如我們今天所看到的那樣，這並不是一個重大轉變，只是一個指南。

And we are going to stay positioned to respond to the market, feel great about our position and great about our operators in the field on their ability to gauge market and lean in should it should show up stronger in the spring.

我們將保持對市場做出反應的位置，對我們的地位感到滿意，並對我們在該領域的運營商的能力感到滿意，因為他們有能力衡量市場，並在春季表現強勁時進行調整。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then second question is kind of around the spec strategy.

第二個問題是圍繞著規範策略的。

And I know obviously you and others have pivoted to kind of 100% spec models over the course of the last several years, somewhat out of necessity given the supply chain somewhat out of, that's where the demand was given the tight resale market.

我知道顯然你和其他人在過去幾年裡已經轉向了 100% 規格的型號，考慮到供應鏈有點脫離，這有點出於必要，這就是轉售市場緊張的需求所在。

But we've talked about this in the past where even though you've never were a huge build to order builder by any stretch of the imagination, that was always at least some portion of your business.

但我們過去曾討論過這一點，即使您從未成為一家大型按訂單建造商，但那至少始終是您業務的一部分。

And I'm curious now with kind of where your spec position is, where your backlog is.

我現在很好奇你的規格位置在哪裡，你的積壓在哪裡。

Is there any thought of maybe kind of returning to some extent to the build to order market, especially if the demand in the spring turns out to be showing signs of acceleration?

是否有任何想法可能在某種程度上回歸按訂單生產市場，特別是如果春季的需求顯示出加速的跡象？

I wouldn't see a seed change shift in our strategy, it's a kind of a community by community, since we are past the supply chain challenges.

我不認為我們的策略會發生重大變化，這是一種社區接社區的方式，因為我們已經克服了供應鏈的挑戰。

We've driven a lot of efficiency into the building process and cycle times.

我們大大提高了建造過程和周期時間的效率。

We will allow our local operators to make those decisions community by community about going to more of a presale focused depending upon the customer segment that they're seeking to serve that particular community and what the market conditions are like.

我們將允許我們的本地業者根據他們尋求為特定社區提供服務的客戶群以及市場狀況，逐個社區做出更多預售的決定。

I mean, we still see tremendous demand, especially for the first time homebuyer with the house that conclusion in 60 days, get them qualified for the mortgage and in line with what a lease or something maybe expiring.

我的意思是，我們仍然看到巨大的需求，特別是對於首次購房者來說，在 60 天內完成房屋購買，使他們有資格獲得抵押貸款，並符合租約或可能到期的東西。

: Make sense.

: 有道理。

All right.

好的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Eric Bosshard, Cleveland Research Company.

艾瑞克‧博斯哈德（Eric Bosshard），克里夫蘭研究公司。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Two things, if I could.

如果可以的話，有兩件事。

The increased incentive spend or cost just up a little more clarity.

增加的激勵支出或成本只是變得更加清晰一些。

Is this you investing more lowering the cost for your customers?

這是您投入更多資金來降低客戶的成本嗎？

And is that the strategy or is this just it's gotten, the customer has gotten more expensive as rates ticked back higher?

這是策略還是這只是策略，隨著費率回升，客戶的價格變得更高？

Just where we are and what the strategy or vision for that is?

我們現在所處的位置以及我們的策略或願景是什麼？

It's our expectation.

這是我們的期望。

We need to increase our incentives and stay where they are and maybe leaning a little more based on rates and achieving affordability for our buyers.

我們需要增加激勵措施並維持現狀，也許根據利率和實現買家的負擔能力進一步傾斜。

So then if we want to maintain a bigger spread off of market rates, that's going to cost a little more.

因此，如果我們想維持更大的市場利率差，那麼成本就會更高一些。

But as we look forward into the next quarter, we expect that our incentives will have to remain elevated in order to maintain affordability and monthly payment that our buyers are looking for.

但當我們展望下一個季度時，我們預計我們的激勵措施必須保持在較高水平，以維持買家所尋求的負擔能力和每月付款。

And then, Eric, when rates are volatile or more uncertain, the cost of those incentives do increase.

然後，埃里克，當利率波動或更不確定時，這些激勵措施的成本確實會增加。

And so regardless of where the level is or how much we're choosing to buy during those periods where it's more uncertain, the cost is just higher.

因此，無論水平在哪裡，也無論我們在不確定性更大的時期選擇購買多少，成本都會更高。

Okay.

好的。

And then second question which is slightly potentially redundant, I'll ask it nonetheless, that you talked about this phenomenon of affordability challenges.

然後，第二個問題可能有點多餘，但我還是會問，您談到了這種負擔能力挑戰的現象。

Your solution for affordability challenges, incentives, a bit more smaller homes.

您應對負擔能力挑戰、激勵措施、較小房屋的解決方案。

Is there anything beyond that are incremental to that as you look at one of the key limiting factors as this phenomenon of affordability.

當你審視這個負擔能力現象這個關鍵限制因素時，還有什麼比這更重要的事嗎？

Any other solutions that you see that you can help address that to unlock more demand?

您認為還有其他解決方案可以幫助解決這個問題以釋放更多需求嗎？

We are continually evaluating the product selections that are going into the homes and looking to see where it makes sense to hit the affordability numbers.

我們不斷評估進入家庭的產品選擇，看看在哪裡可以達到可負擔的數字。

Neighborhood location can have a lot to do with the ultimate affordability as to cost of the underlying dirt, cost of the development requirements and with municipalities are asking for, whether it's in horizontal improvements or the homes themselves.

社區位置與最終的承受能力有很大關係，包括底層泥土的成本、開發要求的成本以及市政當局的要求，無論是水平改進還是房屋本身。

And so continually looking for ways to bring houses, people can afford in the market, and it's a combination of everything.

因此，不斷尋找人們在市場上負擔得起的房子的方法，這是一切的結合。

It's not one thing that we do.

這不是我們做的一件事。

It's something we tried to get to do every day and be as efficient as possible with our starts program to work with our trade partners and labor to make sure that they're able to plan of business and share those savings are applicable business with us that we can pass along to our customers.

這是我們每天努力做的事情，並透過我們的啟動計劃盡可能高效地與我們的貿易夥伴和勞工合作，以確保他們能夠規劃業務並與我們分享這些節省的適用業務，我們可以傳遞給我們的客戶。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Paul Przybylski, Wolfe Research.

保羅‧普茲比爾斯基 (Paul Przybylski)，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Your can rate increased a little bit quarter-over-quarter.

您的罐頭費率比上一季略有增加。

I was wondering, are accelerated incentives creating any issues with backlog right now?

我想知道，加速激勵措施現在是否會造成積壓問題？

And historically down payments have been the greatest impediment for the entry level buyer.

從歷史上看，首付一直是入門級買家的最大障礙。

Is that still the case or has that shifted more to DTI or monthly payment constraints?

情況仍然如此，還是更多地轉向 DTI 或每月付款限制？

No.

不。

I think we haven't seen a big change in the buyer profile.

我認為我們還沒有看到買家概況有重大變化。

Obviously, we've harped on affordability being an issue that hasn't changed.

顯然，我們一直強調負擔能力是一個沒有改變的問題。

So it does take a little bit more household income to qualify for a home today than it did several years ago.

因此，今天確實需要比幾年前多一點的家庭收入才有資格買房。

But our can rate was in line with a year ago.

但我們的罐頭率與一年前持平。

And typically we do see a slight pickup in the fourth quarter for various reasons.

通常，由於各種原因，我們確實會在第四季度看到輕微的回升。

And if you look at our cadence intra quarter in Q4 on our can rate, it was very consistent with last year's Q4.

如果您根據我們的罐率查看第四季度的季度內節奏，您會發現它與去年第四季非常一致。

And high double digit to low-20s is a very comfortable rate for us to manage.

對我們來說，高兩位數到低 20 的比率是一個非常容易管理的比率。

Okay.

好的。

I was wondering what was your average 4Q rate promotion.

我想知道你們第四季的平均促銷率是多少。

How that compared to 3Q?

與第三季相比如何？

And what is it so far in October?

十月到目前為止情況如何？

Yeah, we're really on the 4.5% to 5.5% in terms of our offerings that are out there.

是的，就我們現有的產品而言，我們確實處於 4.5% 到 5.5% 的水平。

I know rates have moved up in the last few weeks.

我知道過去幾週利率有所上升。

We'll see where they settle out over the next couple that may drift up, but still staying in that 1% to 1.5% kind of below market rates is where we have maintained this past quarter ended in the prior couple of quarters.

我們將看到他們在接下來的幾個季度中可能會上漲，但仍保持在低於市場利率1% 至1.5% 的水平，這是我們在前幾個季度結束的上個季度所維持的水平。

Yeah, our backlogs right in the middle of that, it's at 5.2%.

是的，我們的積壓訂單就在中間，是 5.2%。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

You had pretty favorable stick and brick costs in the quarter, and I was just wondering how you saw those trending in fiscal 1Q.

本季的棍棒和磚塊成本相當有利，我只是想知道您如何看待第一財季的這些趨勢。

And then I think referencing maybe Jon's question, is it fair to say stick and brick is not really driving a big move in margins quarter over quarter in terms of that step down?

然後我想引用喬恩的問題，可以公平地說，就這一下降而言，棍棒和磚塊並沒有真正推動利潤率逐季度大幅波動嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

That's very fair.

這非常公平。

I think we've said for a couple of quarters, we expect the benefit of lumber to be behind us, but that was still a benefit in the closings this quarter. our stick and brick costs were down roughly 1% sequentially and about 2.5% year-over-year.

我想我們已經說過幾個季度了，我們預計木材的好處將會過去，但這仍然是本季成交量的一個好處。我們的木棍和磚塊成本較上季下降約 1%，年減約 2.5%。

And I think our base case as we move throughout '25 as we see relatively flat, give or take 1%, on the stick and brick side.

我認為我們的基本情況是，當我們在整個 25 年移動時，我們看到相對平坦，在棒和磚方面，相差 1%。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

And I'm just curious, I mean with the election coming up, are there one or two issues that you could see impacting the industry from a builder perspective or buyers that you'll be really watching as we see kind of how it plays out?

我只是很好奇，我的意思是，隨著選舉的臨近，從建築商或買家的角度來看，您是否會看到一兩個問題會影響該行業，當我們看到它如何發揮作用時，您會真正關注這些問題？

I think everybody would be happy the election's over.

我想每個人都會對選舉結束感到高興。

I think that would help buyer sentiment and the ability to move forward with their life decision.

我認為這將有助於買家的情緒和做出人生決定的能力。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ken Zener, Seaport Research Partners.

Ken Zener，海港研究合作夥伴。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, go ahead.

是的，繼續吧。

I Just want to check.

我只是想檢查一下。

Thank you.

謝謝。

All right.

好的。

Obviously, not what the street or probably what you all were expecting, but I just wanted to go through a few basic thoughts here.

顯然，這不是街上的情況，也不是你們所期待的，但我只是想在這裡談談一些基本的想法。

First, do you think part of the -- I mean, look, price is high.

首先，你認為一部分——我的意思是，看，價格很高。

We can see that in affordability, therefore, you're using incentives, which makes sense.

因此，我們可以看到，在負擔能力方面，您正在使用激勵措施，這是有道理的。

But do you think part of the issue is on the slowing supply given the whole narrative of tight supply in terms of under construction?

但考慮到在建工程供應緊張的整體情況，您是否認為問題的部分原因在於供應放緩？

Is that in most markets, because the builders are so dominant that new homebuyers already have in a rate neutral environment because most new builders are offering incentives.

在大多數市場中是否如此，因為建築商佔據主導地位，以至於新購房者已經處於利率中性環境中，因為大多數新建築商都提供激勵措施。

That seems to me like you might have pulled forward demand given that you still have these incentives.

在我看來，鑑於您仍然有這些激勵措施，您可能會提前需求。

Or do you think it's strictly an issue of affordability, therefore that affects your long-term view on gross margins?

或者您認為這完全是一個負擔能力問題，因此會影響您對毛利率的長期看法？

I do think that the lock-in, the fact that we don't have a lot of resale homes on the market also means that we don't have those buyers coming in when they sell their house coming into our offices. 45% of our buyers are not first-time homebuyers.

我確實認為，鎖定，即我們市場上沒有很多轉售房屋的事實也意味著，當他們出售房屋時，我們沒有那些買家進入我們的辦公室。我們 45% 的買家不是首次購屋者。

Although we sell more than 50% too.

雖然我們也賣了50%以上。

Those means they need to move on from their existing home.

這意味著他們需要離開現有的家。

I don't think there's a lack of want or need accruing out there.

我不認為那裡缺乏需求。

So we could be building some pent up demand.

因此，我們可能會建立一些被壓抑的需求。

And so, we aren't that concerned if we see resale inventory start to rise a little bit because that means people are moving around more that's going to provide more buyers into our offices.

因此，如果我們看到轉售庫存開始略有上升，我們並不擔心，因為這意味著人們會走動更多，這將為我們的辦公室提供更多買家。

We are certainly competitive with the resale market today.

我們在現今的轉售市場上無疑具有競爭力。

We do hear that from our realtors, that because of our rate buydowns and availability that we have of homes at more affordable price points that it's challenged to the resale market.

我們確實從我們的房地產經紀人那裡聽說，由於我們的降價購買和我們以更實惠的價格點擁有房屋的可用性，因此它對轉售市場構成了挑戰。

And do you want to comment, I think, at some point over the last couple of years, you talked about a structurally higher gross margins in contrast to what had been in 19% or 20% time under prior management.

我認為，您想發表評論嗎？

But like do you still have confidence that your gross margins can be structurally higher for you guys?

但是，你們仍然有信心你們的毛利率可以在結構上更高嗎？

Or do you perhaps have the view that at current rates, the affordability is actually a bigger issue given there consistency of these incentives?

或者您認為，以目前的利率，考慮到這些激勵措施的一致性，負擔能力實際上是一個更大的問題？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ken, We've always said that we're going to do what we need to do to maximize returns.

肯，我們總是說我們會做我們需要做的事情來最大化回報。

And so for periods of time, we could see gross margin compression.

因此，在一段時間內，我們可以看到毛利率壓縮。

But over the long term, I do think on average, we believe there's reasons and the long-term average gross margin could be structurally higher because of the scale advantages in the business and are lower cost of capital from the de-leveraging we've done.

但從長遠來看，我確實認為平均而言，我們相信這是有原因的，而且長期平均毛利率可能會在結構上更高，因為業務的規模優勢以及我們去槓桿化帶來的資本成本較低完畢。

But we're going to meet the market quarter to quarter to quarter.

但我們將逐季滿足市場需求。

And if that means compressing margins in the short term to maximize returns, that's the approach we're going to take.

如果這意味著在短期內壓縮利潤以最大化回報，那麼這就是我們將採取的方法。

And to the longer-term view, we are talking about a step down in margins to 22.5%, which is above the high end of our historic range of margins.

從長遠來看，我們正在討論將利潤率降至 22.5%，這高於我們歷史利潤率範圍的上限。

So we have been at a higher level, but we are going to meet the market and there will be various of times where we need to.

所以我們已經處於更高的水平，但我們將滿足市場，並且會有很多時候我們需要這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rafe Jadrosich, Bank of America.

拉夫·賈德羅西奇，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

You spoke about the stick and brick inflation that you're expecting.

您談到了您所預期的棍棒和磚塊通貨膨脹。

Can you talk about what you're anticipating for land inflation in the first quarter and then through 2025?

您能談談您對第一季和 2025 年土地通膨的預期嗎？

So we've seen a little bit of a moderation from low double digit percentage increase in our lot cost and to high single digit this quarter.

因此，我們看到本季的批量成本從低兩位數百分比成長到高個位數成長，略有放緩。

On a full-year basis, we were at the double digit percentage, but on a quarter-over-quarter basis it was a high single.

從全年來看，我們的百分比是兩位數，但從環比來看，這是一個很高的百分比。

So I think, we expect to continue to have cost inflation as we move throughout '25 that maybe it can moderate to a mid single digit as we get a couple of quarters past and have cycled through some of those comparisons are already.

因此，我認為，隨著我們進入 25 年，我們預計成本通膨將繼續存在，隨著我們過去幾個季度並已經循環進行了一些比較，成本通膨可能會降至中個位數。

But our base case is that lot costs will continue to increase at least a mid-single-digit percentage.

但我們的基本情況是批量成本將繼續增加至少中個位數百分比。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And then just putting that all kind of together, how do we think of what level of net price you need in fiscal '25 to hold margins?

然後將所有這些放在一起，我們如何看待 25 財年需要什麼水準的淨價才能保持利潤？

We would need us a small amount.

我們需要少量。

With the lot cost mid-to-high impact on overall price, you need a small amount, but not a significant amounts.

由於批次成本對整體價格的影響為中等到高，因此您需要少量，但不需要大量。

We do expect our stick and brick cost to remain relatively flat.

我們確實預計我們的棒和磚成本將保持相對穩定。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I just want to focus in a bit more on the cost side of the business.

我只是想更專注於業務的成本方面。

We have seen lumber and wood product prices generally inflating over the last several weeks.

過去幾週，我們看到木材和木製品價格普遍上漲。

It feels like they're on a general upward trajectory as you think about the next several quarters in there.

當你考慮接下來的幾個季度時，感覺它們總體上處於上升軌道。

Can you talk about what you're seeing and how you're thinking about that element of the cost structure in fiscal '25?

您能否談談您所看到的情況以及您如何看待 25 財年成本結構的這一要素？

Sue, we have seen lumber come up some recently.

蘇，我們最近看到一些木材出現了。

And as we look at the next year, we're looking for relatively flat stick and brick.

當我們展望明年時，我們正在尋找相對平坦的棍子和磚塊。

We have seen good response from the labor markets.

我們看到勞動市場的良好反應。

We see trades looking for business, which tends to mean we can hold our costs so relatively flat.

我們看到交易正在尋找業務，這往往意味著我們可以將成本保持在相對穩定的水平。

So as we kind of look at it all, we aren’t sure exactly where lumber goes, as we move over the next several months, but feel like we don’t expect much movement up or down in stick and brick in 2025.

因此，當我們審視這一切時，我們不確定木材的確切去向，因為我們在接下來的幾個月裡會移動，但感覺我們預計 2025 年棒材和磚塊不會有太大的變動。

Okay.

好的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then maybe turning to the rental side of the business.

然後也許會轉向業務的租賃方面。

You mentioned in your comments that you expect your inventory to hold flat for the next several years.

您在評論中提到，您預計未來幾年庫存將保持不變。

But as you do you think about the potential that rate stays relatively higher versus lower in there, can you just talk about the demand that you are seeing on that rental side and how you're thinking about managing that in meeting that need as well?

但是，當您考慮那裡的利率保持相對較高而不是較低的潛力時，您能否談談您在租賃方面看到的需求以及您如何考慮管理這一需求以滿足該需求？

A quick clarification on the first part.

對第一部分的快速澄清。

The comment on our rental investment was over the next several quarters.

對我們租賃投資的評論是在接下來的幾個季度中進行的。

Haven't spoken out to future years, that's going to depend on market conditions and where we get the return profile on that business in terms of what we're willing to invest in it.

還沒有談到未來幾年，這將取決於市場狀況以及我們在哪裡獲得該業務的回報情況以及我們願意投資的內容。

Yeah.

是的。

And I think overall, as we look at the market, we still see relatively solid demand in terms of the number of buyers in the market.

我認為總體而言，當我們觀察市場時，就市場買家數量而言，我們仍然看到相對穩定的需求。

We've certainly seen a reduction in apartment starts consistently over the past 12 months.

在過去 12 個月裡，我們確實看到公寓開工量持續下降。

And feel good about our positioning and the inventory we have in production and the timing that it's going to come to market.

對我們的定位、生產中的庫存以及上市時間感到滿意。

So still feel good about that segment.

所以對那一段還是感覺不錯。

And we will monitor it quarter to quarter in terms of what we do with our starts and positioning on a go-forward basis.

我們將逐季度監控我們的啟動情況和未來的定位。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you for that color.

謝謝你的那個顏色。

Good luck with everything.

祝一切順利。

Jade Rahmani, KBW.

傑德·拉赫馬尼，KBW。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

What level of rates would you need to see to spur demand and get buyers off the sidelines as you've categorized?

您需要達到什麼水平的利率才能刺激需求並讓買家不再觀望（按照您的分類）？

Would be around 100 basis point reduction?

會減少100個基點左右嗎？

And would you need to see that through the 10-year treasury?

您需要透過十年期國庫來實現這一點嗎？

Yeah, hard to predict what's going to drive the rates, whether it's the underlying 10-year benchmark or the spread to treasury.

是的，很難預測什麼會推動利率，無論是基本的 10 年期基準還是國債利差。

But more than any one given rate, I think stability in rates is most helpful for us in seeing buyers demand and come off the sidelines.

但我認為，與任何一種給定的利率相比，利率的穩定性對於我們看到買家的需求並擺脫觀望最有幫助。

So that they're not waiting for rates to come down or fearful they're going up and they're going to escape their ability to afford right now.

這樣他們就不會等待利率下降，也不會擔心利率上升而失去現在的負擔能力。

Stability is good, we saw a tighter trading band in the mortgages in the third quarter, and we have a stronger sales environment.

穩定性良好，第三季抵押貸款交易區間收窄，銷售環境更強勁。

Yeah, and there's some seasonality to that as well.

是的，這也有一些季節性。

But we have more volatility in rates in the fourth quarter and that was a negative demand.

但第四季的利率波動更大，這是一個負需求。

In terms of the APR you're currently offering, is it in the mid-5% range or low-5% range?

就您目前提供的年利率而言，是在 5% 的中段範圍內還是在 5% 的低段範圍內？

I've seen at least one competitor in the 4%s, but most do seem to be in that 5%-ish range.

我至少見過一位競爭對手在 4% 左右，但大多數似乎都在 5% 左右的範圍內。

Our offering across the market can kind of range in the mid-4% to mid-5%.

我們在市場上提供的產品範圍在 4% 到 5% 之間。

The average in our backlog, I think Jessica alluded to earlier, was just over 5%.

我想傑西卡之前提到過，我們積壓的平均比例剛好超過 5%。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's Q&A session.

今天的問答環節到此結束。

I would now like to hand the floor back to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks.

現在我想請保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you in January to share our first quarter results.

我們感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，並期待在一月份與您交談，分享我們第一季的業績。

Congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family on a successful fiscal 2024.

恭喜整個 D.R.霍頓家族 2024 財年取得成功。

Due to your efforts, we just completed our 23rd consecutive year as the largest builder in the United States.

由於你們的努力，我們剛剛完成了連續 23 年成為美國最大的建築商。

We are honored to represent to you on this call, and we look forward to everything we will accomplish together in fiscal 2025.

我們很榮幸能代表您參加這次電話會議，我們期待我們在 2025 財年共同完成的一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This does conclude today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your phone lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

此時您可以斷開電話線並度過美好的一天。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。