霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the third quarter 2024 earnings conference call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States.(Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

早上好，歡迎參加 D.R. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。霍頓，美國建築商，美國最大的建築商。我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Paul, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2024.

謝謝你，保羅，早安。歡迎致電討論我們 2024 財年第三季的財務表現。

Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的資訊。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期和 D.R.霍頓不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q early next week. After this call, we will post updated Investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our Executive Chairman.

有關可能導致績效發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參見 D.R. Horton 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格最新季度報告均已提交給美國證券交易委員會。今天早上的收益發布可以在我們的網站 Investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃下週初提交我們的 10-Q 報告。此次電話會議後，我們將在投資者關係網站的新聞和活動下的簡報部分發布更新的投資者和補充資料簡報，供您參考。現在我將把電話轉給我們的執行主席大衛·奧爾德。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. Before we discuss our results, I wanted to take a moment to pay tribute to our founder, Don Horton, who passed away in May. Don was an incredible man with an unstoppable drive and work ethic and establish the foundation and culture of our company, D.R. Horton, the company would not exist as it does today without Don's tireless pursuit to help as many Americans as possible, achieve the dream of home ownership.

謝謝你，潔西卡，早安。在我們討論我們的結果之前，我想花點時間向我們的創始人 Don Horton 致敬，他於 5 月去世。 Don 是一位令人難以置信的人，擁有不可阻擋的動力和職業道德，為我們公司奠定了基礎和文化，D.R.霍頓先生，如果沒有唐的不懈追求，幫助盡可能多的美國人實現擁有住房的夢想，公司就不會像今天這樣存在。

This simple mission has driven us from the first home that Don built built sold and closed himself more than 45 years ago through the more than 1 million homes for our company has provided for families across the country. We are thankful for Don and all D.R. Horton employees are beneficiaries of his life's work. Along with our homeowners, customers, contractors, suppliers, land sellers, real estate brokers and everyone else not included in this family.

這個簡單的使命驅使我們從 Don 在 45 年前建造的第一棟房屋出售並關閉，一直到我們公司為全國各地的家庭提供了超過 100 萬套房屋。我們感謝 Don 和所有 D.R.霍頓的員工是他一生工作的受益者。以及我們的房主、客戶、承包商、供應商、土地賣家、房地產經紀人和其他不屬於這個家庭的人。

It is a bittersweet to be talking about the company's results for the first time since his passing. Not a great pride in the company's growth, profitability and shareholder returns, which have been at the top of all public companies in America for the past decade. We will work every day to preserve this legacy and continue to build upon to improve our operations and the value of our company. We would also like to thank the countless people who contacted us to share their condolences and memories. We received hundreds of messages from employees across the country, and we heard from many industry leaders, citizens of other homebuilding companies.

自從他去世以來第一次談論公司的表現真是苦樂參半。對該公司的成長、獲利能力和股東回報並不感到自豪，在過去的十年裡，這些指標一直位居美國所有上市公司之首。我們將每天努力保護這項傳統，並繼續改善我們的營運和公司價值。我們也要感謝無數與我們聯繫、分享哀悼和回憶的人們。我們收到了來自全國各地員工的數百條訊息，也收到了許多行業領袖、其他住宅建築公司公民的來信。

Our suppliers lot developers, bankers and so many more on behalf of Don's family and our company, we thank you for the kind words and tributes to a remarkable man. He will be missed. Now I'll turn the call over to Romanowski, our President and CEO.

我們的供應商有很多開發商、銀行家等，代表唐的家人和我們的公司，我們感謝您對這位傑出人物的善意之言和致敬。人們會想念他的。現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼執行長羅曼諾夫斯基。

Thank you, David, for sharing those words and sentiments about Don, on behalf of all of us at D.R. Horton. In addition to David and Jessica, I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and Bill Wheat, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

大衛，謝謝你代表 D.R. 的所有人分享有關唐的話語和情感。霍頓。除了 David 和 Jessica 之外，我很高興也邀請執行副總裁兼營運長 Mike Murray 以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Wheat 參加本次電話會議。

For the third quarter, the D.R. Horton team delivered solid results, highlighted by earnings of $4.10 per diluted share, which was an increase of 5% from the prior year quarter. Our consolidated pretax income increased 1% to $1.8 billion on a 2% increase in revenues to $10 billion with a pretax profit margin of 18.1%.

第三季度，D.R. Horton 團隊取得了穩健的業績，其中稀釋後每股收益為 4.10 美元，較去年同期增長 5%。我們的綜合稅前收入成長 1%，達到 18 億美元，營收成長 2%，達到 100 億美元，稅前利潤率為 18.1%。

During the nine months ended June 30, we generated $972 million of cash flow from our homebuilding operations and consolidated cash flow of $228 million. Our homebuilding return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended June 30 was 29.5%, and our return on equity for the same period was 21.5%.

截至 6 月 30 日的九個月中，我們的住宅建築業務產生了 9.72 億美元的現金流，綜合現金流為 2.28 億美元。截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，我們的住宅建築庫存回報率為 29.5%，同期股本回報率為 21.5%。

Although inflation and mortgage interest rates remain elevated, the supply of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is still limited and the demographics supporting housing demand remained favorable. Homebuyer demand during the spring selling season was good despite continued affordability challenges.

儘管通貨膨脹和抵押貸款利率仍然較高，但價格實惠的新房屋和現有房屋供應仍然有限，支持住房需求的人口結構仍然有利。儘管負擔能力仍面臨挑戰，但春季銷售旺季的購屋者需求良好。

With 42,600 homes in inventory and an average selling price of approximately $380,000. We are well positioned to continue consolidating market share. Our average construction cycle times are back to normal and improved from the second quarter, driving additional improvement in our housing inventory turns. We remain focused on enhancing capital efficiency to produce consistent sustainable returns and to increase our consolidated operating cash flows so that we can return more capital to shareholders through both share repurchases and dividends.

庫存房屋為 42,600 套，平均售價約為 38 萬美元。我們處於有利地位，可以繼續鞏固市場佔有率。我們的平均施工週期時間恢復正常，並較第二季度有所改善，推動我們的房屋庫存週轉率進一步改善。我們仍然專注於提高資本效率，以產生持續的可持續回報，並增加我們的綜合營運現金流，以便我們可以透過股票回購和股利向股東返還更多資本。

Mich?

米奇？

Earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2024 increased 5% to $4.10 per diluted share compared to $3.90 per share in the prior year quarter. And net income for the quarter of just $1.4 billion on consolidated revenues of $10 billion. Our third quarter home sales revenues increased 6% to $9.2 billion on 24,155 homes closed compared to $8.7 billion on 22,985 homes closed in the current. Our average closing price for the quarter was $382,200, up 2% sequentially and up 1% from the prior year quarter. Bill?

2024 財年第三季的攤薄收益成長 5%，達到每股 4.10 美元，去年同期每股收益為 3.90 美元。該季度的淨利潤僅為 14 億美元，綜合收入為 100 億美元。第三季房屋銷售收入成長 6%，達到 24,155 套房屋的 92 億美元，而目前成交的 22,985 套房屋的房屋銷售收入為 87 億美元。我們本季的平均收盤價為 382,​​200 美元，比上一季上漲 2%，比去年同期上漲 1%。帳單？

Our net sales orders for the third quarter increased 1% from the prior year to just over 23,000 homes and order value was flat at $8.7 billion. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 18%, up from 15% sequentially. And flat with the prior year quarter.

我們第三季的淨銷售訂單比去年同期成長 1%，達到 23,000 多套房屋，訂單價值持平於 87 億美元。本季的取消率為 18%，高於上一季的 15%。與去年同期持平。

Our average number of active selling communities was up 3% sequentially and up 12% year over year. The average price of net sales orders in the third quarter was $378,900, which is flat sequentially and down 1% from the prior year quarter. To address affordability, we are still using incentives such as more mortgage rate buydowns. And we have reduced the prices and sizes of our homes where necessary. Although our home sales gross margin improved sequentially this quarter, incentives are elevated and we expect them to remain near these levels, assuming similar market conditions and no significant changes in mortgage rates.

我們的活躍銷售社群平均數量較上季成長 3%，較去年同期成長 12%。第三季淨銷售訂單平均價格為 378,900 美元，較上季持平，比去年同期下降 1%。為了解決負擔能力問題，我們仍在使用更多的抵押貸款利率購買等激勵措施。我們還根據需要降低了房屋的價格和麵積。儘管本季度我們的房屋銷售毛利率環比有所改善，但激勵措施有所提高，並且假設市場條件相似且抵押貸款利率沒有重大變化，我們預計毛利率將保持在這些水平附近。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the third quarter was 24%, up 80 basis points sequentially from the March quarter. Our gross margin was better than expected, primarily due to lower incentive costs than in the second quarter. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were up 2% and stick and brick costs were down 1% in the quarter, while log costs increased approximately 2.5%.

第三季房屋銷售收入毛利率為 24%，較 3 月季度較上季成長 80 個基點。我們的毛利率優於預期，主要是由於激勵成本低於第二季。以每平方英尺計算，本季房屋銷售收入增加了 2%，棒材和磚塊成本下降了 1%，而原木成本則增加了約 2.5%。

For the fourth quarter we expect our home sales gross margin to be similar to the third quarter. Further out our home sales gross margin will continue to be dependent on the strength of new home demand changes in mortgage rates and other market conditions.

對於第四季度，我們預計房屋銷售毛利率將與第三季度相似。此外，我們的房屋銷售毛利率將繼續取決於新房屋需求的強度、抵押貸款利率的變化和其他市場條件。

In the third quarter, our home-building SG&A expenses increased by 12% from last year. And homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.1%, up 40 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year. Fiscal year to date, home-building SG&A was 7.5% of revenues, up 30 basis points from the same period last year, due primarily to the expansion of our operations, including new markets and an increased community count. We will continue to control our SG&A while ensuring that our platform adequately supports our business.

第三季度，我們的住宅建設 SG&A 費用比去年增加了 12%。住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 7.1%，比去年同期上升 40 個基點。財年迄今，住宅建築銷售、銷售及管理費用佔收入的 7.5%，比去年同期增長了 30 個基點，這主要是由於我們業務的擴張，包括新市場和社區數量的增加。我們將繼續控制我們的SG&A，同時確保我們的平台充分支援我們的業務。

We started 21,400 homes in the June quarter and ended the quarter with 42,600 homes in inventory, down 3% from a year ago. 26,200 of our homes at June 30 were unsold 8,800 of our total unsold homes were completed, of which 990 had been completed for more than six months. For homes we closed in the third quarter. Our construction cycle times improved slightly from the second quarter, bringing us below our historical average cycle times are faster. Construction and housing turns allow us to manage our homes and inventory more efficiently. We plan to maintain a sufficient starts pace and homes in inventory to meet demand while remaining focused on improving capital efficiency.

我們在 6 月季度開工了 21,400 套房屋，本季末庫存房屋為 42,600 套，比去年同期下降 3%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們有 26,200 套房屋未售出，未售出房屋中有 8,800 套已完工，其中 990 套已完工超過六個月。對於房屋，我們在第三季關閉。我們的施工週期時間較第二季略有改善，使我們的週期時間低於歷史平均值。建築和住房週轉使我們能夠更有效地管理我們的房屋和庫存。我們計劃保持足夠的開工速度和房屋庫存以滿足需求，同時繼續專注於提高資本效率。

Our homebuilding lot position at June 30 consisted of approximately 630,000 lots, of which 24% were owned and 76% were controlled through purchase contracts. We remain focused on our relationships with land developers across the country to maximize returns. These relationships allow us to build more homes on lots developed by others of the homes. We closed this quarter 64% were in a lot developed by either forced or third parties. Our capital efficient and flexible lot portfolio is a key to our strong competitive position. Our third quarter home-building investments in lots, land and development totaled $2.5 billion. Our investments this quarter consisted of $1.4 billion for finished lots, $750 million for land development and $340 million for land acquisition.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的住宅建築地塊部位約為 63 萬塊，其中 24% 為自有，76% 透過購買合約控制。我們仍然專注於與全國各地土地開發商的關係，以實現最大回報。這些關係使我們能夠在其他房屋開發的土地上建造更多房屋。我們本季結束時，64% 的土地是由強制開發者或第三方開發的。我們的資本效率和靈活的批次投資組合是我們保持強大競爭地位的關鍵。我們第三季在土地、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 25 億美元。我們本季的投資包括 14 億美元的成品地塊、7.5 億美元的土地開發投資和 3.4 億美元的土地收購投資。

In the third quarter, our rental operations generated $64 million of pretax income on $414 million of revenues from the sale of 790 single-family rental homes and 610 multifamily rental units. We continue to operate a merchant built model in which we construct purpose-built rental communities and sell them to investors. Our rental operations provide synergies to our homebuilding business by enhancing our purchasing scale and providing opportunities for more efficient utilization of trade labor and land parcels.

第三季度，我們的租賃業務透過出售 790 套單戶出租屋和 610 套多戶出租單位獲得 4.14 億美元的收入，產生了 6,400 萬美元的稅前收入。我們繼續經營商人建造的模式，建造專門的租賃社區並將其出售給投資者。我們的租賃業務透過提高我們的採購規模並提供更有效地利用貿易勞動力和地塊的機會，為我們的住宅建築業務提供協同效應。

Our rental property inventory at June 30 was $3.1 billion, which consisted of $1.1 billion of single-family rental properties and $2 billion of multifamily rental properties. We expect our total rental inventory to remain around the current level for the next several quarters.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 31 億美元，其中包括 11 億美元的單戶出租物業和 20 億美元的多戶出租物業。我們預計未來幾季我們的總租賃庫存將保持在目前水準附近。

Forestar, our majority owned residential lot development company reported revenues of $318 million for the third quarter on 3,255 lots sold with pretax income of $52 million. Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at June 30 was 102,100 lots, 63% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $270 million of the finished lots we purchased in the third quarter were from Forestar. Forestar had approximately $745 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt to capital ratio of 18.7%.

我們擁有多數股權的住宅地塊開發公司 Forestar 報告第三季收入為 3.18 億美元，售出 3,255 塊地塊，稅前收入為 5,200 萬美元。截至 6 月 30 日，Forestar 擁有和控制的地塊部位為 102,100 塊，其中 63% 的 Forestar 擁有的地塊與 D.R. 簽訂合約或享有優先要約權。霍頓。我們在第三季購買的成品地塊中有 2.7 億美元來自 Forestar。截至季末，Forestar 的流動資金約為 7.45 億美元，淨負債與資本比率為 18.7%。

Our strategic relationship with Forestar is a vital component of our returns-focused business model for our homebuilding and rental operations. Forestar, strong separately, capitalized balance sheet, growing operating platform and lot supply positioned them well to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry and to aggregate significant market share over the next several years.

我們與 Forestar 的策略關係是我們住宅建設和租賃業務以回報為中心的業務模式的重要組成部分。 Forestar 實力雄厚，資產負債表資本化，不斷增長的營運平台和地塊供應使他們能夠很好地利用住宅建築行業成品地塊的短缺，並在未來幾年內積累重要的市場份額。

Financial Services earned $91 million in pretax income in the third quarter on $242 million of revenues resulting in a pretax profit margin of 37.7% during the third quarter, essentially all of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations and our mortgage company handled the financing for 78% of our buyers. FHA and VA loans accounted for 56% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 7.5 and an average loan to value ratio of 88%.

金融服務第三季稅前收入為9,100 萬美元，收入為2.42 億美元，第三季稅前利潤率為37.7%，基本上我們抵押貸款公司的所有貸款發放都與我們的住宅建築業務和抵押貸款關閉的房屋相關公司為 78% 的買家辦理了融資。 FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司貸款量的 56%。本季透過 DHI Mortgage 發放貸款的借款人的平均 FICO 評分為 7.5，平均貸款價值比為 88%。

First-time homebuyers represented 57% of the closings handled by our mortgage company this quarter, though our balanced capital approach focuses on being disciplined, flexible and opportunistic to sustain an operating platform that produces consistent returns, growth and cash flow. We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and significant liquidity, which provides us with the ability to adjust to changing market conditions.

首次購屋者占我們抵押貸款公司本季處理的成交量的 57%，儘管我們的平衡資本方法側重於紀律、靈活和機會主義，以維持產生持續回報、成長和現金流的營運平台。我們擁有強大的資產負債表、低槓桿率和大量流動性，這使我們有能力適應不斷變化的市場條件。

During the first nine months of the year, our consolidated cash provided by operations were $228 million, and our homebuilding operations provided $972 million of cash. At June 30, we had $5.8 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $3 billion of cash and $2.8 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities. Debt at the end of the quarter totaled $5.7 billion with $500 million of senior notes maturing in October, which we expect to refinance. Our consolidated leverage at June 30 was 18.8%, and we plan to maintain our leverage around or slightly below 20% over the long term.

今年前 9 個月，我們的業務提供的綜合現金為 2.28 億美元，我們的住宅建築業務提供了 9.72 億美元的現金。截至 6 月 30 日，我們擁有 58 億美元的綜合流動性，其中包括 30 億美元的現金和 28 億美元的信貸額度可用能力。本季末的債務總額為 57 億美元，其中 5 億美元的優先票據將於 10 月到期，我們預計將對其進行再融資。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為 18.8%，我們計劃將槓桿率長期維持在 20% 左右或略低於 20%。

At June 30, our stockholders' equity was $24.7 billion and book value per share was $75.32, up 18% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended June 30, our return on equity was 21.5%, and our consolidated return on assets was 14.8%.

截至6月30日，我們的股東權益為247億美元，每股帳面價值為75.32美元，比去年同期成長18%。截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率為 21.5%，綜合資產回報率為 14.8%。

During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $0.3 per share, totaling $99 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level to be paid in August. We repurchased 3 million shares of common stock for $441 million during the quarter. Our fiscal year to date, stock repurchases through June increased by over 60% from the same period last year to $1.2 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 3% from a year ago. Based on our strong financial position and expectation for increased cash flows, our Board recently approved a new share repurchase authorization totaling $4 billion.

本季度，我們支付了每股 0.3 美元的現金股息，總計 9,900 萬美元，董事會已宣布將於 8 月份支付相同水準的季度股息。本季我們以 4.41 億美元的價格回購了 300 萬股普通股。迄今為止，我們的財年截至 6 月的股票回購額比去年同期增加了 60% 以上，達到 12 億美元，這使我們的流通股數量比去年同期減少了 3%。基於我們強勁的財務狀況和對增加現金流的預期，我們的董事會最近批准了總額 40 億美元的新股回購授權。

For the fourth quarter we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of $10 billion to $10.4 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 24,000 to 24,500 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin in the fourth quarter to be around 24%. And homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues to be approximately 7%. We anticipate a financial services pretax profit margin of around 35% in the fourth quarter, and we expect our quarterly income tax rate to be approximately 24% to 24.3%.

目前，我們預計第四季度的綜合收入將達到 100 億至 104 億美元，我們的住宅建築業務竣工的房屋數量將在 24,000 至 24,500 套之間。我們預計第四季房屋銷售毛利率約為24%。住宅建築 SG&A 佔收入的比例約為 7%。我們預期第四季金融服務稅前利潤率約為35%，季度所得稅稅率約為24%至24.3%。

For the full year of fiscal 2024 we now expect to generate consolidated revenues of $36.8 billion to $37.2 billion and expect homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 90,000 to 90,500 homes. We continue to expect to generate approximately $3 billion of cash flow from our homebuilding operations in fiscal 2024.

對於 2024 財年全年，我們預計將產生 368 億至 372 億美元的綜合收入，並預計我們的住宅建築業務竣工的房屋數量將在 90,000 至 90,500 套之間。我們仍預期 2024 財年住宅建築業務將產生約 30 億美元的現金流。

Finally, we now plan to repurchase approximately $1.8 billion of our common stock for the full year. In addition to annual dividend payments of around $400 million, we plan to provide guidance for fiscal 2025 in October when we report our fourth quarter earnings and after we've completed our annual budgeting process with our operators. We expect to be positioned to increase our market share further next year. We also expect to generate increased cash flow from operations in fiscal 2025, which we plan to utilize to increase our returns to shareholders through proportionately higher share repurchases and dividends.

最後，我們現在計劃全年回購約 18 億美元的普通股。除了支付約 4 億美元的年度股息外，我們還計劃在 10 月報告第四季度收益時以及與營運商完成年度預算流程後提供 2025 財年的指導。我們預計明年將進一步增加我們的市場份額。我們也預計 2025 財年的營運現金流將有所增加，我們計劃利用這些現金流透過按比例提高股票回購和股利來增加股東回報。

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and focus on affordable product offerings. All of these are key components of our operating platform to sustain our ability to produce consistent returns growth and cash flow while continuing to aggregate market share. We have significant financial flexibility and we plan to maintain our disciplined approach to capital allocation by providing consistently high returns to our shareholders to enhance the long-term value of our company.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、領先業界的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及對價格實惠的產品的關注。所有這些都是我們營運平台的關鍵組成部分，以維持我們產生持續回報成長和現金流的能力，同時繼續聚合市場份額。我們擁有顯著的財務靈活性，我們計劃透過為股東提供持續的高回報來維持嚴格的資本配置方法，以提高公司的長期價值。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton, family of employees, land developers, trade partners, vendors and real estate agents for your continued efforts and hard work.

感謝整個 D.R.霍頓、員工家屬、土地開發商、貿易夥伴、供應商和房地產經紀人，感謝你們的持續努力和辛勤工作。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將主持提問。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。 （操作員說明）

Joshua Chan, UBS.

瑞銀集團陳之鋒。

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. The first one is your absorptions were somewhat worse than normal seasonality would suggest. I know there's been some noise in normal seasonality over the past few years, but margin was 50 basis points above the high end of your outlook at 24%. So I guess the question is, did you guys focus more on profitability per home versus maintaining the sales pace maybe as rates rose in April and along those lines, absorptions tend to decline in, call it 15%, maybe a little bit more percent quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter. How are you thinking about kind of the seasonality in the fourth quarter?

早安，夥計們。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是您的吸收量比正常季節性所建議的要差一些。我知道過去幾年正常季節性存在一些噪音，但利潤率比您預期的 24% 的上限高出 50 個基點。所以我想問題是，你們是否更關注每套房屋的盈利能力，而不是保持銷售速度，也許隨著4 月份利率的上升，沿著這些思路，吸收量往往會下降，稱之為15%，也許季度會多一點第四季超過四分之一。您如何看待第四季的季節性？

Yes, John, we continue to balance price and pace to drive the returns that we're looking for a community-by-community. We saw choppiness through the quarter and demand as you saw fluctuation in interest rates, and we responded accordingly. And we did did maintain incentives, but didn't lean in too hard. And I think that's where you saw the result in the overall sales pace, but still feel good about our position about the backlog we have and the opportunity to perform on our guidance for the full year.

是的，約翰，我們將繼續平衡價格和步伐，以推動我們逐一社區尋求的回報。當你看到利率波動時，我們看到了整個季度和需求的波動，我們做出了相應的反應。我們確實維持了激勵措施，但並沒有投入太多。我認為這就是您看到整體銷售速度結果的地方，但仍然對我們對積壓訂單的立場以及執行全年指導的機會感到滿意。

Got it. Now is a good outcome. And then maybe next question is in the Southeast which you obviously encompasses Florida and South Central, which is Texas and its orders were a little bit lighter than what we were looking for. And I think when we spoke in the quarter, Paul, it seemed that the pickup in existing home inventory in those markets was characterized as more of a normalization than a clot. And I think the thought was that the age of the existing housing stock and the price points just weren't that competitive with the HS. product. How are you thinking about existing home inventory in those two markets specifically today and did higher inventory negatively impact the orders in the quarter?

知道了。現在已經是一個好的結果了。也許下一個問題是在東南部，顯然包括佛羅裡達州和中南部，即德克薩斯州，其訂單比我們想要的要少一些。保羅，我認為當我們在本季講話時，這些市場現有房屋庫存的增加似乎更多是一種正常化，而不是凝結。我認為人們的想法是，現有房屋存量的年限和價格點與 HS 相比沒有那麼有競爭力。產品。您如何看待今天這兩個市場的現有房屋庫存？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think similar to what we've seen last quarter and through today, yes, inventory continues to increase not just in Florida but across the markets. But we still feel good about our competitive advantage, especially in the price points that we operate in and with the incentive package and opportunity with being able to be flexible in rates. And so, you know, I don't think that, you know, some of the flatness in sales that you saw across those regions was significantly impacted by increase in inventory, and we still feel good about the demand just not as vibrant as it was in prior quarters.

我認為，與我們上個季度和今天看到的情況類似，是的，庫存不僅在佛羅裡達州而且在整個市場都在持續增加。但我們仍然對我們的競爭優勢感到滿意，特別是在我們經營的價格點以及激勵方案和能夠靈活定價的機會方面。所以，你知道，我不認為你在這些地區看到的銷售平穩性受到庫存增加的顯著影響，而且我們仍然對需求感到滿意，只是沒有那麼活躍。

Thank you, guys.

感謝你們。

Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Thanks morning everybody, once again for me, as I expressed to you all privately, I have my condolences on the dearest passing, I'm really very sorry for your loss and the industry's too. So about that said, John took one of my questions, but I wanted to ask about intra-quarter sales and closings, I think it was over 50% last quarter. I'm curious what it is this quarter and given that you're back to really normalized cycle times and you've got a good amount of inventory heading into Q4 and into next year.

謝謝大家早安，再次感謝我，正如我私下向大家表達的那樣，我對最親愛的人的去世表示哀悼，我對你們和整個行業的損失感到非常抱歉。說到這裡，約翰回答了我的一個問題，但我想問季度內的銷售額和結帳情況，我認為上個季度超過 50%。我很好奇本季是什麼情況，考慮到您已回到真正正常化的周期時間，並且您在進入第四季度和明年時擁有大量庫存。

What's your guess sort of long term is to sort of the sales closings, inter-quarter levels going to be on a go-forward basis.

您的長期猜測是對銷售結束情況進行排序，季度間水平將在未來的基礎上進行。

I think we've seen with the volatile interest rate environment as choppy choppy traffic patterns when rates move, the traffic patterns are impacted. And we saw that through the quarter. I think we ended the quarter with better traffic patterns, better demand and felt that coming into July. We would also see is that people are trying to have interest rate certainty when they're buying a home. And so homes that are closer to completion are more attractive because they can get into a better interest rate that we can help them with on our builder Forward program.

我認為我們已經看到，在利率環境波動的情況下，當利率變動時，流量模式會受到影響。我們整個季度都看到了這一點。我認為我們在本季結束時擁有更好的流量模式和更好的需求，並且在進入 7 月時也感覺到了這一點。我們也會看到，人們在買房時試圖獲得利率的確定性。因此，接近竣工的房屋更具吸引力，因為它們可以獲得更好的利率，我們可以透過我們的建築商遠期計劃來幫助他們。

And at the same time, that means we're buying a little bit later. And so we're seeing a high level of homes sold and closed in the same quarter, we're focused on the storage space to drive a closings number and the sales are going to occur between those two things.

同時，這意味著我們購買的時間要晚一些。因此，我們看到同一季度的房屋銷售和成交量很高，我們專注於儲存空間以推動成交量，而銷售將發生在這兩件事之間。

Okay. And then one of the elements you guys have talked about in the past, I think it's still in your deck. Is this idea of getting your cash in and out of land deals in 24-months. And I'm kind of curious, as you're looking at deals going forward here, obviously, we've seen entitlements lot development times take longer and longer. Is that still realistic to expect that as you underwrite, you're going to see that.

好的。然後你們過去談論過的元素之一，我認為它仍然在你們的套牌中。這是在 24 個月內從土地交易中獲取現金的想法嗎？我有點好奇，當你看到這裡正在進行的交易時，顯然，我們已經看到權利很多開發時間需要越來越長的時間。當您承保時，您會看到這一點，這仍然現實嗎？

And maybe what percentage of your current communities right now have hit that, that goal of getting your cash in and out within 24 months of those transactions?

也許您目前的社區中有多少百分比已經實現了在這些交易後 24 個月內進出現金的目標？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yes Carl. Yes, that has been a standard of us on underwriting for several years and we intend to hold to that. We really aren't looking to own that land until it's shovel ready. So although the entitlement may take longer, we are positioning ourselves in expectation of that time so that we can have properties under contract by end or a third party development partners involved to help. And so the more lots that we have more homes that we're building on lots that were developed by a third party developer makes it easier for us to maintain that 24 month cashback. So we don't always hit it. We'd love to say we do, but reality sets in sometimes, but it's absolutely an underwriting standard that we intend to hold onto.

是的，卡爾。是的，這一直是我們多年來的承保標準，我們打算堅持這項標準。在這塊土地準備好之前，我們真的不想擁有它。因此，儘管授權可能需要更長的時間，但我們正在預計這一時間，以便我們可以在最終合約下擁有房產或參與提供幫助的第三方開發合作夥伴。因此，我們在第三方開發商開發的土地上建造的房屋越多，我們就越容易維持 24 個月的現金回饋。所以我們並不總是能擊中它。我們很想說我們這樣做，但現實有時會出現，但這絕對是我們打算堅持的承保標準。

Appreciate it, guys. Thanks.

非常感謝，夥計們。謝謝。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Thanks very much, guys. I'll let me also echo what Carl Carl sentiments. You know about D an are really a great man and it was a it was a real pleasure to work with them all these years.

非常感謝，夥計們。我也想表達卡爾·卡爾的觀點。你知道 Dan​​ 確實是一個偉大的人，這些年來與他們一起工作真的很愉快。

I do want to ask about your cash flow commentary, which I found very encouraging, both in terms of the remaining quarter, you have this year. And then also your estimations about next year, I think you said you were looking to increase you expected or hoped to increase free cash flow next year. And obviously, deploy that maybe more towards repurchases and dividends.

我確實想問一下你們對現金流的評論，我發現這非常令人鼓舞，無論是就今年剩餘的季度而言。然後還有您對明年的估計，我想您說過您希望增加明年的預期或希望增加自由現金流。顯然，可能更多地將其用於回購和股息。

So just leaning into that a little bit more. Your guidance has typically been around homebuilding operating cash flow, where rental and Forestar you don't have kind of been some offsets to that. And so your consolidated free cash flow obviously being a little lower than your or meaningfully lower than your homebuilding cash flow.

所以只是稍微傾斜一點。您的指導通常圍繞著房屋建築運營現金流，而租金和Forestar 並沒有對此有所抵消。因此，您的綜合自由現金流顯然略低於您的房屋建築現金流，或明顯低於您的房屋建築現金流。

But you said, I think I heard you right that the rental inventory is going to remain consistent going forward. So does that mean that going forward, your homebuilding operating cash flow is going to be much, much closer to your consolidated. And when you talk about hoping to increase your free cash flow, are you talking homebuilding, are you talking or can we say now that's pretty much consolidated free cash flow increasing next year.

但你說，我想我沒聽錯，租賃庫存未來將保持穩定。那麼，這是否意味著，展望未來，您的房屋建築營運現金流將非常非常接近您的合併現金流。當您談論希望增加自由現金流時，您是在談論房屋建築嗎？

Thanks, Steve. Thanks for asking this question. This helps us clarify this. Yes, we are talking about consolidated cash flow and going forward into fiscal '25, we would anticipate any future guidance that we provide on cash flow will be based on on a consolidated basis, with our rental inventory now flattening out stabilizing within a range around the current level, we would anticipate that our consolidated cash flow will be much nearer to the homebuilding cash flow level. There won't be as much of an offset from homebuilding cash flow from from rental.

謝謝，史蒂夫。感謝您提出這個問題。這有助於我們澄清這一點。是的，我們正在談論合併現金流量，並展望 25 財年，我們預計我們提供的有關現金流量的任何未來指導都將基於合併基礎，我們的租賃庫存現在趨於穩定，穩定在一個範圍內按照目前的水平，我們預計我們的綜合現金流量將更接近住宅建築現金流量水平。租金不會對房屋建築現金流產生太大的抵銷作用。

Forestar is consolidated in our financials. We would expect them to continue to use cash flow. But just as a reminder, they're totally separately capitalized. So it really doesn't impact the cash flow we have available to utilize for shareholder returns. But with the sharp improvement in our cycle times this past year, our inventory turns have improved. We expect the improvement to continue into next year. So the efficiency in our homebuilding operation is improving and therefore, the cash flow generation from our income should continue to improve with stabilization and rental.

Forestar 已納入我們的財務報表。我們預計他們將繼續使用現金流。但提醒一下，它們的大寫字母是完全分開的。因此，這確實不會影響我們可用於股東回報的現金流量。但隨著去年我們的週期時間大幅改善，我們的庫存週轉率也有所改善。我們預計這種改善將持續到明年。因此，我們的住宅建設營運效率正在提高，因此，我們的收入產生的現金流應該會隨著穩定和租金的穩定而繼續改善。

We do expect an increased level of consolidated cash flow next year, and then that's reflected in the increased share repurchase authorization that our Board authorized that will be utilizing going forward as we expect to see proportionately higher share repurchases and dividends being paid out of that cash flow.

我們確實預計明年的合併現金流量會增加，這會反映在董事會授權的股票回購授權增加上，未來將使用該授權，因為我們預計股票回購和股利將按比例增加流動。

Well, that all sounds pretty great. So thanks for that. That does also segue very nicely to my next question, which relates to your levels of spec inventory and backlog turns that we can expect . Your guidance for the fourth quarter closings implies a fairly high level of backlog turnover. And I'm wondering if you can give us a sense for what is a comfortable level of backlog turn that we can expect going forward is what we're seeing this year kind of what can we expect kind of a similar level on a going forward basis.

嗯，這一切聽起來都很棒。所以謝謝你。這也很好地解決了我的下一個問題，該問題與我們可以預期的規格庫存水準和積壓週轉有關。你們對第四季結帳的指導意味著積壓訂單週轉率相當高。我想知道您是否能讓我們了解我們可以預期的積壓週轉的舒適水平是多少，我們今年會看到什麼，我們可以預期未來類似的水平是多少基礎。

And tied to that, your spec inventory, I think you're running at like 26 total specs per community. Actually you don't report community -- let me put it this way. Whatever your spec levels are per community where they are today, is that about what we can expect on a go forward basis, both on a total basis and on a finished basis? Or if you can give us some color there on terms of what is a target range for finished specs and normal specs and backlog turnover ratio?

與此相關的是，您的規格庫存，我認為每個社區的總規格約為 26 個。事實上，你不報告社區——讓我這樣說。無論您今天每個社區的規格水平如何，這是否是我們在未來的基礎上可以期望的，無論是在總體基礎上還是在完成的基礎上？或者您能否給我們一些關於成品規格和正常規格的目標範圍以及積壓週轉率的資訊？

Sure. That was a lot to unpack for you, but I'll do my best to answer all of your questions. So on the latter part, there really is no global expectation for number of specs. We run the business, as you know, community by community. And so our operators are adjusting based on their sales environment and in each individual community in terms of what they're starting and how many specs they're going to carry based on their sales run rate that they're experiencing. And so they can adjust very quickly to current market conditions in terms of either slowing down or speeding up, assuming we have the finished lot position to do so.

當然。要為您解開的內容有很多，但我會盡力回答您的所有問題。所以在後一部分，對於規格數量確實沒有全球期望。如您所知，我們逐一社區經營業務。因此，我們的營運商正在根據他們的銷售環境和每個單獨的社群來調整他們正在開始的產品以及他們將根據他們正在經歷的銷售運行率攜帶多少規格。因此，假設我們有成品部位，他們可以非常迅速地適應當前的市場狀況，無論是放緩還是加速。

And so that kind of just roll that from a bottoms up perspective, we're very comfortable with where we are today is I think Paul's remarks on the call said we're selling homes still later in construction and to one of Mike's earlier points that we buyers want a certainty of close. And so the 60 to 90 days of being able to lock the rate, we're very comfortable with our completed spec position today, and it is allowing us to run at much higher backlog conversion rates than we have historically.

因此，從自下而上的角度來看，我們對今天的處境感到非常滿意，我認為保羅在電話會議上的講話表示，我們將在建設後期出售房屋，並且邁克之前的觀點之一是我們買家想要成交的確定性。因此，在能夠鎖定利率的 60 到 90 天裡，我們對今天完成的規格位置感到非常滿意，這使我們能夠以比歷史上更高的積壓轉換率運行。

We don't really focus on backlog conversion. We focus on turning our houses and not running with an excess supply of completed specs that have been sitting for an extended period of time unsold. And so that's really our focus is on continuing to turn our houses faster. And as long as those completed specs aren't age for an extended period of time. We're very comfortable running with the levels we're at today.

我們並不真正關注積壓訂單轉換。我們專注於改造我們的房屋，而不是使用已經閒置很長一段時間未售出的過量供應的已完成規格。因此，我們的重點實際上是繼續更快地改造我們的房屋。只要這些完整的規格不會在很長一段時間內過時。我們對今天的水平感到非常滿意。

Okay, that's helpful. Thanks very much, guys.

好的，這很有幫助。非常感謝，夥計們。

Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

摩根大通的麥克雷豪特。

Great, thanks. Good morning, everyone. And I also wanted to express my condolences on the loss of D.R's, obviously a great leader and visionary for the industry, and he will be sorely missed.

萬分感謝。大家，早安。我還想對 D.R 的去世表示哀悼，他顯然是該行業的一位偉大領導者和遠見卓識，我們將非常想念他。

I wanted to start off my first question, just on some of the comments you made around. I think earlier you said there was some choppiness during the quarter, obviously with rates earlier in the quarter being a little higher. At the same time, you talked about incentives maybe being a little less, then you expected and that drove the gross margin upside. I was just kind of curious as rates maybe subsided a little bit or came down, perhaps to the lower end of their range that we've seen in the last three, four, five months.

我想從您提出的一些評論開始我的第一個問題。我想您之前說過本季出現了一些波動，顯然本季早些時候的利率略高。同時，您談到激勵措施可能比您預期的要少一些，這推動了毛利率的上升。我只是有點好奇，因為利率可能會略有下降或下降，也許會降至我們在過去三、四個、五個月中看到的範圍的下限。

If any of that choppiness has subsided. And, you know, it appears that maybe incentives are similar as you see them going in from 4Q versus 3Q, but if it's had any impact on either incentives or just more broadly demand trends as those rates have come in a little bit in the last month or so.

如果那種波動已經平息的話。而且，您知道，激勵措施似乎與第四季度和第三季度的激勵措施相似，但它是否對激勵措施或更廣泛的需求趨勢產生了任何影響，因為這些利率在過去有所上升一個月左右。

Obviously any pullback in rates we would call beneficial and we would expect to have some relief on the incentive front as incentives are able to be reduced or at least the cost of the incentive that we're offering and that we are still balancing that with just overall affordability issues in the market today. And we do continue to experience higher loss costs, which is why our guide for Q4 would be a relatively flat gross margin because even if we do have the ability to pull back on incentive costs to some extent. And we do have cost pressures, particularly on the loss side.

顯然，我們認為利率的任何回落都是有益的，並且我們希望在激勵方面有所緩解，因為激勵措施可以減少，或者至少可以減少我們提供的激勵措施的成本，並且我們仍在平衡這一點當今市場的整體負擔能力問題。我們確實繼續經歷更高的損失成本，這就是為什麼我們對第四季度的指導是毛利率相對持平，因為即使我們確實有能力在一定程度上削減激勵成本。我們確實面臨成本壓力，特別是在損失方面。

Okay. No, that's that's that's helpful. Makes sense. And also maybe just along this line of questioning. On your prepared remarks, you highlighted that you reduced prices and sizes of homes to a degree over. And I don't know if that was specific to the quarter or just more broadly over the last several quarters, but would love to get a little more clarity around that.

好的。不，就是這樣，很有幫助。說得通。也許也正是沿著這條線的提問。在您準備好的演講中，您強調您在一定程度上降低了房屋的價格和麵積。我不知道這是否是本季特有的情況，還是過去幾季的情況，但我希望能更清楚地了解這一點。

Comment and you'll make maybe just more broadly, obviously we can see the closing ASP. and them your backlog ASP. But just kind of curious, obviously, there's mix that, that that impacts those numbers maybe just give us a sense of percent of homes that you've either lowered or reduced prices. And by how much. By contrast, if there's been some percent of homes or communities that we've raised, prices or sizes and how to think about the ASP for the business going forward into '25?

發表評論，您可能會更廣泛地發表評論，顯然我們可以看到最終的 ASP。以及您的積壓 ASP。但有點好奇，顯然，影響這些數字的因素可能只是讓我們了解降價或降價的房屋百分比。以及多少。相比之下，如果我們已經提高了一定比例的房屋或社區，價格或面積以及如何考慮進入 25 年業務的平均售價？

Alot a lot there in that question. So in total, our average house sale house size is down about 2% and from a year ago and about flat sequentially. And you're right that is a mix reflection of what our operators are choosing to start in a given community and the communities that they're planning to come online. And we might be moving to a few more townhome communities to meet affordability targets for a given submarket, with regard to price increases or price decreases you have that's occurring very much week to week at a community level by our operators as they're gauging their market demand, their inventory conditions and their future log supply.

這個問題有很多內容。因此，總的來說，我們的平均房屋銷售面積比一年前下降了約 2%，與上一季持平。您是對的，這綜合反映了我們的運營商選擇在特定社區中啟動的內容以及他們計劃上線的社區。我們可能會搬到更多的聯排別墅社區，以滿足特定子市場的負擔能力目標，關於價格上漲或價格下跌，我們的運營商在社區層面每週都會發生這種情況，因為他們正在衡量他們的市場需求、庫存狀況和未來原木供應。

So we feel really good about those teams making the right decision and we really don't aggregate up and say we had working in the communities like a price increase, 20% of decrease, every else was flat. And we just don't look at those numbers that I mean at a high level here, we tend to look at are we turning our housing inventory and are we driving returns community by community? The best we can.

因此，我們對那些做出正確決定的團隊感到非常滿意，我們真的不會匯總起來並說我們在社區中所做的工作包括價格上漲、價格下降 20%，其他一切都持平。我們只是不關注這些數字，我在這裡指的是高水平的數字，我們傾向於關注我們是否正在改變我們的住房庫存以及我們是否正在逐個社區推動回報？我們盡力而為。

Great. Thanks a lot.

偉大的。多謝。

Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬修·鮑利。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to go back to the comments around finished spec. I think you were clear that that you're intentionally selling homes later in the construction cycle for a lot of obvious reasons. But obviously, the number of expected rise sequentially, your starts did come down sequentially. I'm trying to understand if there is any kind of signal we should take from that around sort of the state of demand, with finished spec being higher, is there an implication how we should think about margins going forward?

大家，早安。感謝您提出問題。我想回到關於成品規範的評論。我認為您很清楚，出於許多明顯的原因，您有意在施工週期後期出售房屋。但很明顯，預期的數量依次上升，而你的開工數確實依次下降。我試圖了解我們是否應該從需求狀態中獲得任何類型的訊號，隨著成品規格的提高，這是否意味著我們應該如何考慮未來的利潤率？

To the extent you have to clear some of that with either incentives or price?

在某種程度上你必須透過激勵或價格來清除其中的一些？

Yes, Matthew, I think that some of that what you've seen us increase in completed specs is we have seen a consistent improvement in our cycle times so those homes are moving through the construction at a faster pace, which means they're reaching completion sooner. So even though we may still be selling those homes later in the construction process. It now allows us to sell them in with a with a closer certainty. So we'll cycle through that. We don't worry a lot about, you know, how many of them exactly as a percentage are completed.

是的，馬修，我認為您所看到的我們在完成規格方面的增加是我們在周期時間方面的持續改進，因此這些房屋正在以更快的速度進行施工，這意味著它們正在達到更快完成。因此，即使我們可能仍在施工過程的後期出售這些房屋。現在，我們可以更加確定地出售它們。我們將循環討論這一點。我們不太擔心，你知道，其中到底有多少百分比已經完成。

As Jessica pointed out earlier, it's more focused on are they sitting once they reach completion, so as they age and that tends to be an indicator that we've seen slower absorption or demand community-by-community. So we're focused on maintaining housing inventory levels that we need in each community, and we're going to moderate that and I will starts either increase or pull back based on demand, assuming we have lots in front of us that we need to continue the pace that they were looking for. We're very comfortable with the housing inventory that we have. We don't have a buildup of aged inventory and feel good about that going into the fourth quarter.

正如傑西卡早些時候指出的那樣，更關注的是他們在完成任務後是否會坐著，因此隨著他們年齡的增長，這往往表明我們看到了吸收速度變慢或逐個社區的需求。因此，我們的重點是維持每個社區所需的住房庫存水平，我們將對此進行調節，我將根據需求開始增加或減少，假設我們面前有很多需要我們繼續他們所尋求的步伐。我們對現有的房屋庫存感到非常滿意。我們沒有累積陳舊庫存，並且對進入第四季度感到滿意。

Got it. Okay. That's very clear, Paul. Thanks for that. Secondly, I noticed you mentioned earlier in the quarter that stick and brick were down, costs were down sequentially on a per square foot basis. I'm curious as we think about that fourth quarter margin guide of but flat sequentially, I mean, is the expectation that stick and brick is continuing to come down further into the next quarter? And I guess what specifically in terms of construction costs, are you actually able to press down on that?

知道了。好的。這很清楚，保羅。感謝那。其次，我注意到您在本季早些時候提到，木棍和磚塊的價格下降了，每平方英尺的成本也隨之下降。我很好奇，當我們想到第四季的利潤率指引但連續持平時，我的意思是，對棍棒和磚塊的預期是否會繼續進一步下降到下個季度？我想具體來說，在建築成本方面，你真的能夠壓下去嗎？

I think we're looking for effectively plastic and break costs. We've gotten a lot of the tailwind out of the lumber price decreases coming through. And I think we're coming to a more consistent level there. The balance of our of our stick and brick costs, we're probably seeing some pressing for increases. Some that are we're able to make some progress with them in various markets. It starts and pulled back. People come looking for work and maybe a little bit sharper pencil coming in trying to get the next neighborhood and the next phase of starts.

我認為我們正在尋找有效的塑膠和破壞成本。我們從木材價格下跌中獲得了很大的推動力。我認為我們正在達到一個更加一致的水平。考慮到我們的棍子和磚塊成本的平衡，我們可能會看到一些增加的壓力。其中一些是我們能夠在各個市場上與他們取得一些進展。它啟動並拉回來。人們來找工作，也許還會有更鋒利的鉛筆進來，試圖找到下一個街區和下一階段的開始。

And so we expect some plastic and break, we'll probably see an escalation in a lot of cost going forward in the fourth quarter. And then the ultimate margin is going to determine based upon what the concession levels are like in the fourth quarter. And since a significant portion of our closings in the fourth quarter will be sold in that quarter, north of 40%, and that will heavily drives the ultimate margin. So we felt very comfortable looking at a flat margin environment from Q3 to Q4.

因此，我們預計會出現一些塑膠和破損，我們可能會在第四季度看到大量成本上升。然後最終的利潤率將根據第四季度的優惠水平來確定。由於我們第四季度成交量的很大一部分將在該季度售出，超過 40%，這將極大地推動最終利潤率。因此，我們對第三季到第四季利潤率持平的環境感到非常滿意。

Thanks, everyone. Good luck.

感謝大家。祝你好運。

Alan S. Ratner - Zelman & Associates LLC

艾倫·S·拉特納 - Zelman & Associates LLC

Hey, guys. Good morning. And I also share my condolences to you and D.R's family on his passing in the quarter. And so thank you for all the great intro. So far, we've heard from some other builders and also just other consumer facing companies about some deterioration, I guess, in the credit quality of the consumer recently over the last handful of months have seen savings rates on the decline. You guys are done a fantastic job keeping your price point low when you walk through all the drivers of that.

大家好。早安.我還為 D.R 在本季的去世向您和他的家人表示哀悼。感謝您的精彩介紹。到目前為止，我們從其他一些建築商以及其他面向消費者的公司那裡聽說，我想，最近幾個月消費者的信貸品質出現了一些惡化，儲蓄率有所下降。當您了解所有驅動因素時，您在保持低價方面做得非常出色。

But I'm just curious if you can provide some insight into what you are seeing from the consumer today in terms of their ability to qualify funds for down payments and your credit card debt et cetera, any color there would be great.

但我只是好奇，如果您能提供一些見解，了解您今天從消費者那裡看到的情況，即他們有資格獲得首付資金和信用卡債務等方面的能力，任何顏色都會很棒。

[Credit Card] rate still being around 18%, we feel very comfortable about the buyers that are making the rand or sales offices and their ability to qualify a historical cancellation rate for us would be high 10s to low 20s. And so we're at the low end actually have a comfortable cancellation rate on what we closed this quarter, very strong cycle at [725], I think for the second quarter consistently. And the only noticeable difference in terms of the buyers that we're ultimately selling and closing to is that their average income has, of course, unfortunately, had to continue to rise because of the interest rate environment today. So on a household income basis, where we were at roughly I think it was the first quarter. It rounded up to $100,000 $99.9 and is the average household income on the buyers who utilize our mortgage company and closed in a home in the third quarter.

[信用卡] 利率仍然在 18% 左右，我們對賺取蘭特或銷售辦事處的買家感到非常放心，他們有能力為我們提供歷史取消率，從高 10 到低 20。因此，我們處於低端，實際上我們在本季度結束時有一個舒適的取消率，非常強勁的周期為 [725]，我認為第二季度一直如此。對於我們最終出售和接近的買家而言，唯一明顯的區別是，不幸的是，由於當今的利率環境，他們的平均收入必須繼續上升。因此，從家庭收入的角度來看，我認為這是第一季的情況。它四捨五入為 100,000 美元 99.9 美元，是使用我們的抵押貸款公司並在第三季度交割房屋的買家的平均家庭收入。

And so that's really the only noticeable difference is the buyers coming into our sales offices today do have to have higher income to be able to qualify. And but in terms of what we're selling and closing no noticeable deterioration in those credit metrics, everything has been very stable.

因此，唯一明顯的區別是，今天進入我們銷售辦事處的買家必須有更高的收入才有資格。但就我們正在銷售的產品而言，而這些信用指標並沒有明顯惡化，一切都非常穩定。

That's great to hear. Appreciate that, Jessica. And secondly, a really positive commentary on the cash flow and capital allocation. I think that that's going to certainly excite investors, if I look at your last several years, you've been buying back around 3% of your shares each year or at least reducing your share count by that amount. Some other builders have been a bit higher than that. It certainly sounds like you're looking to take that a bit higher. Is there a target you could give us just to think about where that can go on an annualized basis could be to be in the kind of mid to high single digit range. And I know you have the authorization in place, but doesn't really give us a lot of insight into kind of what timing you expect to utilize that?

聽到這個消息我很高興。很欣賞這一點，潔西卡。其次，對現金流和資本配置的真正正面的評論。我認為這肯定會讓投資者感到興奮，如果我看看你過去幾年，你每年都會回購大約 3% 的股票，或者至少減少這個數量的股票數量。其他一些建築商的水平比這要高一些。聽起來你確實希望把這個數字提高一點。您是否可以給我們一個目標，讓我們考慮一下按年計算可以達到中高個位數範圍內的目標。我知道您已獲得授權，但並沒有真正讓我們深入了解您希望在什麼時間使用該授權？

You know, yes, it does not have an expiration date of our last authorization was was issued in our first quarter, so that one lasted about nine months. Typically they've been in the 12 month range, but but we're not providing specific cash flow or repurchase guidance for '25 as of yet.

你知道，是的，我們最後一次授權是在第一季發出的，它沒有到期日，因此持續了​​大約九個月。通常情況下，它們都在 12 個月的範圍內，但我們尚未提供 25 個月的特定現金流或回購指導。

As we just commented, we want to go through our budgeting process before we provide that specific guidance. But we do expect that as cash flow does provide a significant increase next year, we will increase our repurchases and dividends proportionately to that.

正如我們剛剛評論的那樣，我們希望在提供具體指導之前先完成預算流程。但我們確實預計，由於明年現金流確實會大幅增加，我們將相應增加回購和股利。

So we do expect it to be a meaningful step up in the level of repurchases and the reduction in share count will be a function of really where our share prices as well in combination with that, because we're allocating dollars and ultimately we will we will be in the market. We'll repurchase shares that we're able to get with those dollars, but would expect the reduction in share count to be greater next year. Than it than it has been the last few years.

因此，我們確實預計這將是回購水準的一個有意義的進步，而股票數量的減少將取決於我們的股價以及與之結合的實際情況，因為我們正在分配美元，最終我們將我們將在市場上。我們將回購我們能夠用這些美元獲得的股票，但預計明年股票數量的減少幅度會更大。比它比過去幾年。

Understood, appreciate. Thanks a lot.

明白了，欣賞。多謝。

Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research.

克利夫蘭研究中心的艾瑞克‧博斯哈德。

Thanks. Two things. First of all, that to circle back to the choppiness on demand relative to the movement in rates, I'm just curious how much of the orders now are using a rate buy-down. And I guess I would have thought with the rate buydown prevalence there'd be less visibility and influence on consumers as a result of that. Can you just help me understand that a little bit better.

謝謝。兩件事情。首先，回到相對於利率變動的需求波動，我只是好奇現在有多少訂單正在使用利率下修。我想我會認為，由於利率購買的普遍性，因此對消費者的可見度和影響力會降低。你能幫我更好地理解這一點嗎？

Yes. And we actually saw a slight tick-up in the number of buyers getting the permanent rate buydown, which is the vast majority of what we're offering in the market today of the buyers that utilized our mortgage company. It was roughly 77%. I think that translates to about 60% of the overall business give or take. And that was up slightly from the second quarter and it was up more significantly from from a year ago.

是的。事實上，我們看到獲得永久利率購買的買家數量略有增加，這是我們今天在市場上提供給使用我們抵押貸款公司的買家的絕大多數。大約是77%。我認為這相當於整個業務的 60% 左右。與第二季相比略有上升，與去年同期相比成長更為顯著。

I think there's a lot of noise in the marketplace when rates are moving and rates are moving up. And that affects, I think, our prospective buyer behavior as to whether or not they're even going to come into the sales office and talk to us once they come into the sales office and they understand what's available to them, they might have had an expectation that I had to make a 7% mortgage rate work in my budget and they come in and we're able to put them in something different at a different monthly payment.

我認為當利率變動和利率上升時，市場上會出現很多噪音。我認為，這會影響我們潛在買家的行為，即他們是否會進入銷售辦公室並與我們交談，一旦他們進入銷售辦公室並且他們了解他們可以獲得什麼，他們可能已經擁有了我的預期是，我必須在我的預算中考慮7% 的抵押貸款利率，而它們進來了，我們能夠以不同的每月付款方式將它們放入不同的東西中。

It opens our eyes up quite a bit to what's possible. And so they struggle becomes the traffic patterns. If we get we get the traffic, we're pretty good conversion. But sometimes all the headline noise around interest rates can depress the traffic?

它讓我們大開眼界，看到什麼是可能的。因此，他們的鬥爭就成為了交通模式。如果我們獲得了流量，那麼我們的轉換率就相當不錯了。但有時所有圍繞利率的頭條新聞都會抑制交通？

And then secondly, if Florida has been an important and successful market, it sounds like it continues to be both. I'm curious if you could just dig a little bit more into for us what's going on there in terms of traffic and price sensitivity and what you're doing or what your communities there are doing in response to that to position the business to continue to grow?

其次，如果佛羅裡達州一直是一個重要且成功的市場，那麼聽起來它仍然是兩個重要且成功的市場。我很好奇您能否為我們深入了解一下那裡的流量和價格敏感度方面的情況，以及您正在做什麼或您的社區正在做什麼來應對這一情況，以使業務能夠繼續下去成長？

Yes, Florida has been an important market to us, and we certainly continue to see in-migration people. People love to live in Florida want to be there, but affordability is challenged like it is across the country. And so we've seen seen significant rise in prices in Florida and across the country. And with interest rates are sticking where they have. It's certainly taxing and that's Jessica spoke to the real change in and buyers is they just need to make a little more to afford homes at a static sales price in a higher interest rate environment.

是的，佛羅裡達州對我們來說一直是一個重要的市場，我們當然會繼續看到移民。人們喜歡住在佛羅裡達州並希望在那裡生活，但負擔能力與全國各地一樣面臨挑戰。因此，我們看到佛羅裡達州和全國各地的價格大幅上漲。而且利率仍維持不變。這當然是一種稅收，傑西卡談到了真正的變化，買家們只需要多賺一點就能在更高的利率環境下以靜態銷售價格買得起房子。

And I think that that's really what we're saying on the impact of sales in Florida, not so much a significant change in traffic and or basic demand or want it's a matter of continuing to provide the right house at the right affordable price point that reaches as many people as possible and that's what we continue to strive to do as we position our new communities.

我認為這確實是我們所說的對佛羅裡達州銷售的影響，與其說是交通和/或基本需求或希望發生重大變化，不如說是繼續以合適的負擔得起的價格提供合適的房子，覆蓋盡可能多的人，這就是我們在定位新社區時繼續努力做的事情。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sam Reid from Wells Fargo.

來自富國銀行的薩姆·里德。

Sam, your line is live and thanks so much. So I wanted to touch on your rental business. One of your bigger competitors is looking to do more in this space, but they're also approaching it from perhaps a less capital intensive standpoint. So first, maybe talk through the implications as more builders enter the rental space, are the build to rent space? I guess I should say, but second, are there opportunities to recapitalize this segment longer term, perhaps run it with more third party capital? It sounds like your rental inventories are rightsized for now, but just curious if there's room down the road to rethink the approach to capital structure here.

山姆，您的線路已開通，非常感謝。所以我想談談你們的租賃業務。您的一個更大的競爭對手正在尋求在這一領域做更多的事情，但他們也可能從資本密集程度較低的角度來實現這一目標。首先，也許可以討論一下隨著越來越多的建築商進入租賃空間的影響，建築是為了出租空間嗎？我想我應該說，但其次，是否有機會對這個細分市場進行長期資本重組，也許用更多的第三方資本來運作它？聽起來您的租賃庫存目前已調整規模，但只是好奇未來是否有空間重新考慮這裡的資本結構方法。

As we continue to grow in this business, we're continually looking at ways to not only capitalize, but how we want to execute in this space. And I think from a single-family for rent basis, we've become more efficient with the capital and how we produce and we sell these communities. And I think that's some of what you're seeing in our moderation of growth in the inventory levels that we expect to see consistency of the investment level that we have out there. And so we still see a strong demand. We still see an undersupply and ability to meet the demand of what's out there. So we're going to maintain. We're going to continue to be focused on it ourselves and be as efficient as we can with that capital.

隨著我們在這一業務領域的不斷發展，我們不僅不斷尋找資本化的方法，而且還不斷尋找我們希望如何在這個領域執行的方法。我認為，從單戶出租的角度來看，我們在資本以及生產和銷售這些社區的方式上變得更有效率。我認為這就是我們在庫存水準成長放緩中看到的一些情況，我們希望看到我們現有的投資水準保持一致。因此我們仍然看到強勁的需求。我們仍然看到供應不足和滿足市場需求的能力。所以我們要維護。我們將繼續專注於此，並利用這筆資金盡可能提高效率。

That's helpful. And then switching gears to community count that was up double digits still in Q3, if I'm not mistaken. And it's really been strong throughout 2024. And I believe in the past, you've indicated you expect that growth to slow. And I know you're not providing guidance obviously for 2025, but curious if there's a level of community account growth that you'll need to sustain next year in order to hit those market share gain aspirations?

這很有幫助。然後，如果我沒記錯的話，社區數量在第三季度仍然增長了兩位數。整個 2024 年成長確實非常強勁。我知道您顯然不會提供 2025 年的指導，但很好奇明年是否需要維持一定程度的社區帳戶增長才能實現市場份額增長的願望？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, Sam. And the great thing is the position of strength we're coming from in terms of even if we grow sub-10%. We're generally growing the size of a top 10 builder and consolidating share regardless. But I think we have tried to get across the point the last couple of quarters that we do believe going forward, more of our growth is going to come from community count. And whereas really for most of this cycle outside of the early years, it's been coming from increased absorption. So we do recognize that to continue to grow. We're going to continue to need the increased communities.

當然，薩姆。最棒的是，即使我們的成長率低於 10%，我們的實力依然強勁。不管怎樣，我們通常都會擴大排名前十的建築商的規模並鞏固份額。但我認為，在過去的幾個季度中，我們一直在努力闡明這一點，即我們確實相信，未來我們的成長將更多地來自社區數量。事實上，在早年以外的這個週期的大部分時間裡，它都是來自於吸收的增加。所以我們確實認識到要繼續增長。我們將繼續需要更多的社區。

Some of that come through our increased market count, which has expanded dramatically over the last several years, and we've still got a hit list of quite a few additional markets to enter into. And we're continuing to work on our finished lot position and to where we can get those new flags open open sooner.

其中一些是透過我們增加的市場數量來實現的，市場數量在過去幾年中急劇擴大，而且我們仍然有相當多的其他市場需要進入。我們正在繼續努力完成我們的地塊位置，以便我們可以更快地開放這些新旗幟。

I think what we said last quarter does still hold, though within the next quarter or two. I think our community count is going to moderate. It won't be up double digit. But I think we're hopeful we can continue to maintain it in at least a mid to maybe high single digit increase for some period of time. And then at some point, it may not have to grow at a mid to high. It may just be a low to mid is you already kind of indicated that was one of the hardest things for us to talk about and get right, because there's so many moving pieces to either bringing on a new community or closing out one in terms of sales pace. And so we don't ever give specific guidance and that that's our best estimate as we sit here today.

我認為我們上個季度所說的仍然有效，儘管在接下來的一兩個季度內。我認為我們的社區數量將會減少。不會上漲兩位數。但我認為我們希望能夠在一段時間內繼續將其保持在至少中等到高個位數的成長水平。然後在某個時候，它可能不需要中高成長。這可能只是一個中低水平，你已經表示這是我們最難討論和解決的事情之一，因為在建立一個新社區或關閉一個社區方面有很多令人感動的事情銷售速度。因此，我們從來沒有給出具體的指導，這是我們今天坐在這裡的最佳估計。

Thanks so much. I'll pass it on.

非常感謝。我會把它傳遞下去。

Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡。

Hi, good morning. Can you talk about what lot costs were in the quarter, maybe mix-adjusted? And then based on the prices for land that you've been buying and expectations for stronger cash in '25 should should we expect a lot cost inflation to maybe kind of normalize a bit in fiscal '25? Could it kind of go back down to low single digit or mid single digit? Or just any thoughts on those the lot cost trends?

早安.您能談談本季的批量成本是多少（可能經過混合調整）嗎？然後，根據您一直購買的土地價格以及對 25 年現金增加的預期，我們是否應該預期大量成本通膨可能會在 25 財年稍微正常化？它會回到低個位數或中個位數嗎？或者只是對批量成本趨勢有什麼想法？

Yes, we have continued to see increase in our log cost and slight increases as a percentage of overall revenue. We don't expect to see that moderate significantly. You know, I don't know whether that settles in at the high singles, low double digits, but we do expect that to be a headwind for us as the reality of the cost to put a lot on the ground. We just haven't seen much relief in that. And so we expect to see a continued climb.

是的，我們的原木成本持續增加，佔總收入的百分比略有增加。我們預計這種情況不會顯著緩解。你知道，我不知道這是否會導致高個位數、低兩位數，但我們確實預計這對我們來說是一個阻力，因為投入大量資金的現實成本。我們只是沒有看到太多的緩解。因此，我們預計會繼續攀升。

In terms of the specifics since you asked for that on a per square foot basis, as I said on the call, sequentially, we were up about 2.5% on a lot cost basis, year over year, we were still up a low double digit percentage, which would still have some mix impact that we've continued to talk to in terms of the South Central and Southeast, making up a slightly lower percentage of our closings.

就具體細節而言，正如我在電話會議上所說，自從您要求按每平方英尺計算後，我們的批量成本同比增長了約 2.5％，但我們仍然保持較低的兩位數增長百分比，這仍然會對我們繼續談論的中南部和東南部產生一些混合影響，占我們成交量的百分比略低。

And those are generally lower lot cost markets. And to kind of give you another data point we typically talk about in terms of the just the percentage of home sales revenue that our lot cost averages. And it generally is in that 20% to 25% range pretty consistently. And we're right in the heart of that range today, even with the increased lot costs we've been experiencing.

這些通常是批量成本較低的市場。為了給您另一個數據點，我們通常會談論我們的地塊平均成本佔房屋銷售收入的百分比。一般情況下，該比例相當一致地保持在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內。儘管我們已經經歷了批量成本的增加，但今天我們正處於該範圍的中心。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. And then just I guess Forestar is obviously a major source of developed lots for you. But putting aside Forestar, can you just touch on the kind of the health of your land banking pipeline and partners?

知道了。知道了。這非常有幫助。我猜Forestar 顯然是您開發土地的主要來源。但拋開Forestar不談，您能談談您的土地儲備管道和合作夥伴的健康狀況嗎？

Yes, I wouldn't necessarily refer to it as a land banking pipeline. I'd refer to as a lot developers pipeline. It's a very large collection of some very seasoned experienced land development companies across the country that have had to, frankly, they've had to look for some different capital sources and we've been able to help them find some other capital sources as a lot of regional and community banks have pulled back from that sort of blending, but there's been other capital sources willing to step up when the developers working for somebody like D.R. Horton said, we've been able to keep those folks in business producing lots for us. And 64% of our closings this quarter came on lots developed by someone else besides D.R. Horton. And that's great three part of our business strategy.

是的，我不一定稱之為土地儲備管道。我將其稱為“很多開發人員管道”。這是全國範圍內一些經驗豐富的土地開發公司的一個非常大的集合，坦率地說，他們必須尋找一些不同的資本來源，而我們已經能夠幫助他們找到一些其他資本來源作為許多地區和社區銀行已經退出了這種混合，但當開發商為像D.R. 這樣的人工作時，還有其他資本來源願意挺身而出。霍頓說，我們已經能夠讓這些人繼續為我們生產大量產品。本季我們成交的 64% 的土地是由 D.R. 以外的其他人開發的。霍頓。這是我們業務策略的重要三個部分。

Okay. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的。這非常有幫助。我會把它翻過來。

Buck Horne from Raymond James.

雷蒙德詹姆斯的巴克霍恩。

Thank you. Good morning. My question is just a quick one on Forestar and just if there's an update on the longer-term plan for what to do with Forestar or, you know, is there I thought to eventually recapitalize that so Forestar could eventually be deconsolidated?

謝謝。早安.我的問題只是關於 Forestar 的一個簡單問題，以及關於如何處理 Forestar 的長期計劃是否有更新，或者，你知道，我是否認為最終會進行資本重組，以便 Forestar 最終可以被解散？

Yes. Forestar is a very important part of our strategy with them being separately capitalized, they are able to support their growth with their own capital sources. And so it does not have any offset on the cash available for the parent company and our shareholders and they're growing their platform. And so we are working alongside them as they grow. Their platforms are now in about 60 markets, I believe. So roughly half of the markets that to the D.R. Horton has. And so they've still got a lot of opportunities to grow that platform.

是的。 Forestar是我們策略中非常重要的一部分，他們是單獨資本化的，他們能夠用自己的資本來源支持他們的成長。因此，它不會抵消母公司和股東的可用現金，而且他們正在發展自己的平台。因此，隨著他們的成長，我們將與他們一起工作。我相信他們的平台現已遍布約 60 個市場。因此，大約一半的市場是 D.R.霍頓有。因此，他們仍然有很多機會來發展這個平台。

And so our focus right now is to continue to work with them as they grow, improve their operations, get to get as efficient as they can at delivering lots to us and to the industry. And and then as they mature, they're raising capital. I would expect them to continue to raise capital over time. And so as that capital structure ultimately matures, then that will give us the visibility to be able to make the determinations on what we do in terms of our investment.

因此，我們現在的重點是隨著他們的成長繼續與他們合作，改善他們的運營，盡可能有效地為我們和產業提供大量產品。然後隨著他們的成熟，他們正在籌集資金。我預計他們將隨著時間的推移繼續籌集資金。因此，隨著資本結構最終成熟，我們將能夠了解我們的投資決策。

And so obviously, we know we made an additional investment to buy a majority stake, and we have not you contributed or needed to contribute any additional capital to Forestar. And I don't expect that we will need to going forward, but there will be an opportunity at some point down the line to look at their capitalization when they're at a much or more mature level.

顯然，我們知道我們進行了額外投資來購買多數股權，並且您沒有為 Forestar 貢獻或需要貢獻任何額外資本。我不認為我們需要繼續前進，但在未來某個時候，當它們處於成熟或更成熟的水平時，我們將有機會審視它們的資本化。

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate. And quickly on the rental operations in terms of your current inventory balance, it kind of looks like it's about one-third single-family rental, but two-thirds multifamily. Is that the right mix for how you think the inventory is going to track going forward? Or do you think at some point given the amount of multifamily inventory that's out there right now?

知道了。這很有幫助。我很欣賞。就您目前的庫存餘額而言，快速進行租賃業務，看起來大約有三分之一的單戶住宅出租，但三分之二的多戶住宅出租。您認為這種組合是否適合未來的庫存追蹤？或者考慮到目前多戶住宅的庫存量，您認為在某個時候會發生這種情況嗎？

Do you think it shifts more towards the SFR waiting.

你認為它更多地轉向 SFR 等待嗎？

I think near term, our expectation based on the pipeline that we have of deals is the weighting towards multifamily is probably a little bit higher in the near term. The next few quarters over the long term, I would expect that to balance out a little bit more than where it is today as FSR. picks back up. But near term probably a little bit heavier multifamily.

我認為，從近期來看，我們基於交易管道的預期是，多戶住宅的權重在短期內可能會稍高。從長遠來看，未來幾個季度，我預計 FSR 會比今天的水平有所平衡。恢復。但短期內可能會出現更多的多戶住宅。

Okay. Is it like 50 50, the right optimal balance kind of where you'd like to get it to?

好的。是不是像 50 50 那樣，是您想要達到的最佳平衡點？

We don't have a set level unnecessarily it's whatever the market demand is and whatever the we believe best mixes for returns community-by-community across our markets.

我們沒有不必要的設定水平，無論市場需求是什麼，也無論我們認為在我們的市場中各個社區回報的最佳組合是什麼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Good morning, everyone. You mentioned that the cycle times have actually moved below your normalized levels historically. Can you talk about where you saw that improvement come from? And what do you think that is, especially if we do see a world where perhaps rates come down and activity picks up on a relative basis?

大家，早安。您提到週期時間實際上已經低於歷史上的標準化水平。您能談談您認為這種改進來自哪裡嗎？您認為這是什麼，特別是如果我們確實看到一個利率可能下降而活動相對增加的世界？

Yes, we've seen that mostly from We don't really have supply chain challenges that has largely healed, and we have the parts and pieces we need to build and labor has strengthened. We've seen with our consistent production and market scale. We have the labor that we need and job site maintenance and controls and efficiency, just all of that kind of coming together. And that's where you've seen our cycle times drop a little bit below our historical norms. We continue to focus on being more efficient with the construction process and something we're focused on every day.

是的，我們已經看到，大部分來自我們的供應鏈挑戰並沒有在很大程度上得到緩解，而且我們擁有建造所需的零件，勞動力也得到了加強。我們已經看到了我們一貫的生產和市場規模。我們擁有所需的勞動力、工作現場的維護、控制和效率，所有這些都結合在一起。這就是您看到我們的周期時間略低於歷史標準的地方。我們繼續專注於提高施工過程的效率以及我們每天關注的事情。

Okay, that's helpful. And turning to the M&A environment, can you talk a bit about what you're seeing there? Has anything changed and how that pipeline is looking today?

好的，這很有幫助。談到併購環境，您能談談您在那裡看到的情況嗎？現在有什麼改變嗎？

We still prefer small tuck-in acquisitions. We like things that will either expand our footprint in a new and emerging geography where we can acquire some people along with be up a lot position in other places, it becomes oftentimes a homes in construction finished one. And then we're able to work with the selling principle to stay in the business as a lot entitling and developer. And that's been a very successful strategy for us in creating what development partners around the country as well, still see good flow of deals to look at. But I would say we're pretty selective on what we're willing to do right now.

我們仍然更喜歡小型收購。我們喜歡那些能夠擴大我們在新興地區的足跡的東西，在那裡我們可以招募一些人，並在其他地方獲得很多職位，它通常會成為一個正在建造的住宅。然後我們就能夠按照銷售原則，以授權者和開發商的身份繼續從事這項業務。這對我們來說是一個非常成功的策略，它在全國範圍內創建了發展合作夥伴，仍然看到了良好的交易流量。但我想說的是，我們對現在願意做的事情是非常有選擇性的。

Okay. Thank you for the color and good luck with everything.

好的。謝謝你的顏色，祝一切順利。

Ralph Jadrosich from Bank of America.

美國銀行的拉爾夫‧賈德羅西奇 (Ralph Jadrosich)。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. And I'll add my condolences on D.R's. I'm just going back to your earlier comments on price and pace and then targeting market share gains for 2025. If I look at your starts in the quarter, they're down on their tracking down year over year. The census single-family starts are up 7% quarter-over-quarter in the second quarter. Your margin was it was higher though, on has there been a strategy shift at all like on and why not incentivize or push orders more at this at this gross margin level?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我還要向 D.R 表示哀悼。我只是回到您之前對價格和速度的評論，然後將目標定為 2025 年的市場份額增長。人口普查第二季單戶住宅開工量較上季成長 7%。不過，你的利潤率更高，有沒有像上一樣的策略轉變，為什麼不在這個毛利率水平上更多地激勵或推動訂單呢？

And then my second question would be how do we think about the starts pace going forward relative to your plan for market share?

然後我的第二個問題是，我們如何考慮相對於您的市佔率計畫的未來啟動速度？

Yes. No, no change in strategy, right? We are seeing efficiencies in our operation, which is why you've seen a little lower starts pace than maybe might have been expected. But as we continue to move through this market, we're going to have to see some improvement in the overall increase.

是的。不，策略沒有改變，對嗎？我們看到我們的營運效率有所提高，這就是為什麼您會看到啟動速度比預期的要慢一些。但隨著我們繼續進入這個市場，我們將不得不看到整體成長的一些改善。

I guess if you will in the overall Star space to keep pace with with our growth goals. But it's really just us managing our inventory, making sure we have that we need community by community to hit the price and pace goals that we're looking for, and we'll manage that inventory based on our ability to to get those homes moved through the construction process and based on availability of lot community by community in front of us.

我想您是否會在整個明星空間中跟上我們的成長目標。但這實際上只是我們管理我們的庫存，確保我們需要一個社區一個社區來達到我們正在尋找的價格和速度目標，並且我們將根據我們移動這些房屋的能力來管理該庫存通過施工過程並基於我們面前各個社區的可用情況。

Thank you. And then just on the Q4 gross margin guidance of flat quarter over quarter, it sounds like you're expecting that net price to be flattish with incentives. You talked about sticking brick being flattish and land is up. What is it on? Is there another piece in here that that's going to be giving you relief on the cost side, like what's happening with broker commission, I'm to get to that flat quarter over quarter.

謝謝。然後，就第四季毛利率指引而言，季度環比持平，聽起來您預計淨價在激勵措施下將持平。你談到黏磚是平的，土地是向上的。它在什麼上？這裡是否還有另一件事可以讓你在成本方面得到緩解，例如經紀人佣金的情況，我將實現季度與季度持平的情況。

Yes, as we look is we're going into the quarter here. Obviously, we've had some rate volatility. We did. We did see sequential ASP growth. And so there's upfront a little bit of price. We saw a little bit of our cost of our incentives go down sequentially this quarter. So it's probably a little bit of an assumption, a little bit of price, a little bit of incentive cost reduction in the quarter to offset the log cost increase.

是的，正如我們所看到的，我們即將進入這個季度。顯然，我們遇到了一些利率波動。我們做到了。我們確實看到了平均售價的環比增長。所以需要預先支付一點價格。我們看到本季的激勵成本有所下降。因此，這可能是本季的一點假設、一點點價格、一點點激勵成本降低，以抵銷原木成本的增加。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Mike Dahl。

And just to follow up on Rafes question about kind of the price versus pace. I'm sorry to hit it again, but I guess from a more near term standpoint was the decision to not lean in more heavily on incentives because at the time there was rate volatility, you didn't your perception was that there just wouldn't be a sufficient demand response or anything else you can give as far as just during the quarter, it did see sounds like you kind of made a decision not to not to push more aggressively.

只是為了跟進拉菲斯關於價格與速度的問題。我很抱歉再次提到這一點，但我想從更近期的角度來看，決定不更多地依靠激勵措施，因為當時存在利率波動，你沒有意識到，你的看法是不會有這樣的情況。

You know, we aren't. We aren't making that decision here on a broad scale. I wish we were good enough to know which way rates were going to go, but we rely on our operators at a community level to make those decisions based on the traffic volume that they have in the sales demand and the people that and buyers that they have in front of them on a daily basis. And I think overall what that resulted in is a solid margin for us and sales that to that seasonally didn't increase maybe like they would. But we're in a good place with the sales pace that we achieved in the quarter and the inventory we have to hit our guidance for the year.

你知道，我們不是。我們不會在這裡大規模地做出這個決定。我希望我們足夠好，知道費率將走向何方，但我們依靠社區層面的運營商根據他們在銷售需求中的流量以及他們的人群和買家做出這些決定。我認為總的來說，這給我們帶來了豐厚的利潤，而季節性的銷售額可能並沒有像他們那樣增加。但我們在本季實現的銷售速度以及我們必須達到今年指引的庫存方面處於有利位置。

Okay. And then on the rental business, just specifically on the fourth quarter, obviously the last three quarters, it's been a volatile environment to sell either SFR and multi-family. Can you talk more specifically about what your expectations are for Q4 for the rental platform ?

好的。然後在租賃業務方面，特別是在第四季度，顯然是過去三個季度，出售 SFR 和多戶住宅的環境一直不穩定。您能更具體地談談您對第四季租賃平台的期望嗎？

The rental is baked into our consolidated revenue guide and there is uncertainty around timing of closings over of rental deals. So there's a little bit of a lumpiness in those numbers, but that's built into the range that we're providing in our revenue guide that no other specific guidance on the Q4 revenues from rental.

租金已納入我們的綜合收入指南，租賃交易的結束時間存在不確定性。因此，這些數字有點不穩定，但這是我們在收入指南中提供的範圍內的，沒有關於第四季度租金收入的其他具體指南。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

This does conclude our Q&A session today. I would like to hand the call back to Paul Roman, Askey for closing remark.

我們今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回保羅·羅曼·阿斯基 (Paul Roman Askey) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our fourth quarter results in October. Congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family on producing a solid third quarter. We are honored to represent you on this call and greatly appreciate all that you do.

謝謝你，保羅。我們感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，並期待再次與您交談，分享我們 10 月的第四季業績。恭喜整個 D.R.霍頓家族第三季表現出色。我們很榮幸能代表您參加這次電話會議，並非常感謝您所做的一切。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。