霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States. (Operator Instructions) A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 D.R. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。霍頓，美國建築商，美國最大的建築商。 （操作員說明）正式示範之後將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Senior Vice President of Communications for D.R. Horton.

我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 通訊資深副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Tom, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 financial results. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，湯姆，早安。歡迎致電討論我們第四季和 2023 財年的財務表現。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，不能保證實際結果不會有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的資訊。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期，以及 D.R.霍頓不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports on Form 10-Q, all of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com and we plan to file our 10-K late next week.

有關可能導致績效發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參見 D.R. Horton 的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表後續報告都已提交給美國證券交易委員會。今天早上的收益報告可以在我們的網站 Investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃下週稍後提交 10-K 報表。

After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference.

此次電話會議後，我們將在投資者關係網站的新聞和活動下的簡報部分發布更新的投資者和補充資料簡報，供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our Executive Vice Chair.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的執行副主席大衛·奧爾德。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Paul Romanowski, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Mike Murray, our Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，潔西卡，早安。我很高興我們的總裁兼執行長 Paul Romanowski 也參加了這次電話會議； Mike Murray，我們的執行副總裁兼營運長；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Bill Wheat。

When we talk about our results, I'd like to congratulate Paul on his well-deserved promotion to CEO that was effective the first of October. We have been preparing for this transition internally for quite some time. We are positioning our leadership throughout the company for the future, and I will still be actively involved as Executive Vice Chair of Board of Directors. Our executive team remains in place with the same individuals and Paul has the support of our executive, region and division leadership. He is a proven leader who has been successful throughout his group.

當我們談論我們的業績時，我要祝賀 Paul 當之無愧地晉升為首席執行官，該晉升於 10 月 1 日生效。我們內部已經為這一轉變做好了相當長的準備。我們正在為未來的整個公司定位我們的領導力，我仍將作為董事會執行副主席積極參與其中。我們的執行團隊仍然由原來的人員組成，保羅得到了我們執行、區域和部門領導層的支持。他是一位久經考驗的領導者，在整個團隊中都取得了成功。

Now on to our results. The D.R. Horton team finished the year with a solid fourth quarter results, highlighted by earnings of $4.45 per diluted share. Our consolidated pretax income was $2 billion on a 9% increase in revenues to $10.5 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 19.2%. For the year, earnings per diluted share was $13.82 and our consolidated pretax income was $6.3 billion on a 6% increase in revenues to $35.5 million, with a pretax profit margin of 17.8%. We closed a record 91,204 homes and apartments this year in our homebuilding and rental operations.

現在來看我們的結果。 D.R. Horton 團隊以穩健的第四季度業績結束了這一年，其中稀釋後每股收益為 4.45 美元。我們的綜合稅前收入為 20 億美元，營收成長 9%，達到 105 億美元，稅前利潤率為 19.2%。今年，稀釋後每股收益為 13.82 美元，綜合稅前收入為 63 億美元，收入成長 6%，達到 3,550 萬美元，稅前利潤率為 17.8%。今年，我們在住宅建設和租賃業務中關閉了創紀錄的 91,204 套住宅和公寓。

Our cash flow from operations for 2023 was $4.3 billion. Our homebuilding return on inventory for the year was 29.7% and our return on equity was 22.7%. Despite continued high mortgage rates and inflationary pressures, our net sales orders increased 39% from the prior year quarter. As a result of both new and existing homes at affordable price points is limited and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable. We are focused on consolidating market share by supplying more homes at affordable price points to meet homebuyer demand, while maximizing the returns and capital efficiency in each of our communities with improvements in both labor capacity and availability of materials, our cycle times are decreasing positioning us to improve our housing inventory turns.

2023 年我們的營運現金流為 43 億美元。我們今年的住宅建築庫存回報率為 29.7%，股本回報率為 22.7%。儘管抵押貸款利率持續居高不下且存在通膨壓力，我們的淨銷售訂單仍比去年同期增長了 39%。由於可負擔價位的新房和現房數量有限，而且支持住房需求的人口結構仍然有利。我們專注於透過以實惠的價格提供更多房屋來滿足購屋者的需求來鞏固市場份額，同時透過提高勞動力能力和材料可用性來最大限度地提高每個社區的回報和資本效率，我們的週期時間正在縮短，這使我們能夠定位改善我們的房屋庫存週轉率。

We are well positioned with our experienced operators, affordable product offerings, flexible lot supply and strong capital and liquidity positions to generate strong cash flows and produce consistent returns. We will maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of the company, including returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis. Paul?

我們擁有經驗豐富的營運商、價格實惠的產品、靈活的批次供應以及強大的資本和流動性狀況，能夠產生強勁的現金流並產生穩定的回報。我們將維持嚴格的資本投資方式，以提高公司的長期價值，包括透過股利和股票回購持續向股東返還資本。保羅？

Earnings for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 decreased 5% to $4.45 per diluted share compared to $4.67 per share in the prior year quarter. Earnings for the year decreased 16% to $13.82 per diluted share compared to $16.51 in fiscal 2022. Net income for the quarter decreased 7% to $1.5 billion on consolidated revenues of $10.5 billion. And for the year, net income decreased 19% to $4.7 billion on revenues of $35.5 billion. Our fourth quarter home sales revenues were $8.8 billion on 22,928 homes closed compared to $9.4 billion on 23,212 homes closed in the prior year. Our average closing price for the quarter was $382,900, up 1% sequentially and down 5% from the prior year quarter. Mike?

2023 財年第四季攤薄後每股收益下降 5%，至 4.45 美元，而去年同期為 4.67 美元。與 2022 財年的 16.51 美元相比，本年度攤薄後每股收益下降 16%，至 13.82 美元。該季度淨利潤下降 7%，至 15 億美元，綜合收入為 105 億美元。今年淨利下降 19%，至 47 億美元，營收為 355 億美元。我們第四季的房屋銷售收入為 88 億美元，成交了 22,928 套房屋，而去年同期成交了 23,212 套房屋，收入為 94 億美元。我們本季的平均收盤價為 382,​​900 美元，比上一季上漲 1%，比去年同期下降 5%。麥克風？

Our net sales orders in the fourth quarter increased 39% to 18,939 homes and order value increased 34% from the prior year to $7.3 billion. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 21%, up from 18% sequentially and down from 32% in the prior year quarter. Our average number of active selling communities was up 2% sequentially and up 10% from the prior year. The average price of net sales orders in the fourth quarter was $383,100, up 1% sequentially and down 4% from the prior year quarter. To adjust to changing market conditions and higher mortgage rates, we have increased our use of incentives and are reducing the size of our homes where possible to provide better affordability for our homebuyers.

我們第四季的淨銷售訂單成長了 39%，達到 18,939 套房屋，訂單價值比上年增長 34%，達到 73 億美元。本季的取消率為 21%，高於上一季的 18%，也低於去年同期的 32%。我們的活躍銷售社群平均數量比上一季成長 2%，比上一年成長 10%。第四季淨銷售訂單平均價格為 383,100 美元，較上季上漲 1%，比去年同期下降 4%。為了適應不斷變化的市場條件和更高的抵押貸款利率，我們增加了激勵措施的使用，並儘可能縮小房屋面積，以便為購房者提供更好的負擔能力。

We expect to continue utilizing a higher level of incentives in fiscal 2024, particularly rate buydowns in the current interest rate environment. Our sales volumes can be significantly affected by changes in mortgage rates and other economic factors. However, we will continue to start homes and maintain sufficient inventory to meet sales demand and aggregate market share. Bill?

我們預計在 2024 財年繼續利用更高水準的激勵措施，特別是在當前利率環境下的利率下調。我們的銷售量可能會受到抵押貸款利率和其他經濟因素變化的顯著影響。然而，我們將繼續開工並保持充足的庫存，以滿足銷售需求和整體市場份額。帳單？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the fourth quarter was 25.1%, up 180 basis points sequentially from the June quarter. The increase in our gross margin from June to September reflects the slight increase in our average sales price and lower stick and brick costs on homes closed during the quarter. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were up 2.5% sequentially, while stick and brick cost per square foot decreased 2.5% and lot costs increased 6%.

第四季房屋銷售收入毛利率為 25.1%，較 6 月季度較上季成長 180 個基點。 6 月至 9 月毛利率的成長反映了我們的平均銷售價格的小幅上漲以及本季關閉房屋的木棒和磚塊成本的下降。以每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入較上季成長 2.5%，而每平方英尺的木棍和磚塊成本下降 2.5%，地塊成本增加 6%。

As Mike mentioned, we expect to continue offering a higher level of incentives in fiscal 2024 to help address affordability. Due to recent increases in volatility in mortgage rates, our incentive costs have increased on recent sales, and we expect our homebuilding gross margins to be lower in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. Jessica?

正如 Mike 所提到的，我們預計將在 2024 財年繼續提供更高水準的激勵措施，以幫助解決負擔能力問題。由於近期抵押貸款利率波動性增加，我們近期銷售的激勵成本增加，我們預計第一季的住宅建築毛利率將低於第四季。傑西卡？

In the fourth quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expenses increased by 2% from last year, and homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 6.6%, down 10 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year. For the year, homebuilding SG&A was 7.1% of revenues, up 30 basis points from fiscal 2022. We will continue to control our SG&A while ensuring that our platform adequately supports our business. Paul?

第四季度，我們的住宅建築 SG&A 費用比去年增加 2%，住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔營收的百分比為 6.6%，比去年同期下降 10 個基點。今年，住宅建築 SG&A 佔營收的 7.1%，比 2022 財年成長了 30 個基點。我們將繼續控制我們的 SG&A，同時確保我們的平台充分支援我們的業務。保羅？

We started 21,100 homes in the September quarter, down 8% from the June quarter. We ended the year with 42,000 homes in inventory, down 9% from a year ago and down 4% sequentially. 27,000 of our total homes at September 30 were unsold, of which 7,000 were completed.

我們在 9 月季度開工了 21,100 套房屋，比 6 月季度下降了 8%。截至年底，我們的庫存房屋數量為 42,000 套，比去年同期下降 9%，比上一季下降 4%。截至 9 月 30 日，我們共有 27,000 套房屋未售出，其中 7,000 套已竣工。

For homes we closed in the fourth quarter, our construction cycle time decreased by a month from the third quarter, reflecting improvements in the supply chain. We will continue to manage our homes and inventory and starts pace based on market conditions, and we expect further improvements in our cycle times and housing inventory turns in fiscal 2024. Mike?

對於我們在第四季度關閉的房屋，我們的施工週期比第三季縮短了一個月，反映出供應鏈的改善。我們將繼續管理我們的房屋和庫存，並根據市場狀況啟動進度，我們預計 2024 財年的周期時間和房屋庫存週轉率將進一步改善。麥克？

Our homebuilding lot position at September 30 consisted of approximately 568,000 lots, of which 25% were owned and 75% were controlled through purchase contracts. 35% of our total owned lots are finished and 54% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them. Our capital efficient and flexible lot portfolio is a key to our strong competitive position.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的住宅建築地塊部位約為 568,000 塊，其中 25% 為自有土地，75% 為透過購買合約控制。我們擁有的全部地塊中有 35% 已完工，而我們控制的地塊中有 54% 在我們購買時已經或即將完工。我們的資本效率和靈活的批次投資組合是我們保持強大競爭地位的關鍵。

Our fourth quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $2.3 billion, up 7% sequentially. Our current quarter investments consisted of $1.5 billion for finished lots $580 million for land development and $290 million for land acquisition. For the year, our homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $8 billion, up 6% from fiscal 2022. Paul?

我們第四季在土地、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 23 億美元，比上一季成長 7%。我們目前季度的投資包括 15 億美元的成品地塊投資、5.8 億美元的土地開發投資和 2.9 億美元的土地收購投資。今年，我們在土地、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 80 億美元，比 2022 財年增加 6%。保羅？

In the fourth quarter, our rental operations generated $217 million of pretax income on $1.4 billion of revenues from the sale of 3,006 single-family rental homes and 1,582 multifamily rental units. For the full year, our rental operations generated $524 million of pretax income on $2.6 billion of revenues from the sale of 6,175 single-family rental homes and 2,112 multifamily rental units.

第四季度，我們的租賃業務透過銷售 3,006 套單戶出租房屋和 1,582 套多戶出租單位獲得 14 億美元收入，產生了 2.17 億美元稅前收入。全年，我們的租賃業務透過銷售 6,175 套單戶出租房屋和 2,112 套多戶出租單位獲得 26 億美元收入，產生了 5.24 億美元稅前收入。

Our rental property inventory at September 30 was $2.7 billion, which consisted of $1.3 billion of single-family rental properties and $1.4 billion of multifamily rental properties. Our rental operations generated significant increases in both revenues and profits this year as our platform is maturing and expanding across more markets.

截至 9 月 30 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 27 億美元，其中包括 13 億美元的單戶出租物業和 14 億美元的多戶出租物業。隨著我們的平台日趨成熟並擴展到更多市場，我們的租賃業務今年的營收和利潤均大幅成長。

Due to the rise in interest rates and volatility and uncertainty in the capital markets, we are not providing separate guidance for the -- for our rental closings in fiscal 2024. Based on the current pipeline of rental projects, we do expect to have more multifamily unit closings in fiscal 2024 than in fiscal 2023. Bill?

由於利率上升以及資本市場的波動性和不確定性，我們不會為 2024 財年的租賃關閉提供單獨的指導。根據目前的租賃項目管道，我們確實預計會有更多的多戶住宅2024 財年的單位關閉數量高於2023 財年。比爾？

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company reported revenues of $550 million for the fourth quarter on 4,986 lots sold with pretax income of $95 million. For the full year, Forestar delivered 14,040 lots, generating $1.4 billion of revenues and $222 million of pretax income with a pretax profit margin of 15.4%.

我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司 Forestar 報告稱，第四季度收入為 5.5 億美元，售出 4,986 塊地塊，稅前收入為 9,500 萬美元。全年，Forestar 交付了 14,040 件拍品，創造了 14 億美元的收入和 2.22 億美元的稅前收入，稅前利潤率為 15.4%。

Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at September 30 was 79,200 lots. 60% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $410 million of our finished lots purchased in the fourth quarter were from Forestar. Forestar had approximately $1 billion of liquidity at year-end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 5.5%.

截至9月30日，Forestar擁有和控制的手數為79,200手。 Forestar 擁有的 60% 土地與 D.R. 簽訂了合同，或享有優先報價權。霍頓。我們在第四季購買的價值 4.1 億美元的成品地塊來自 Forestar。截至年底，Forestar 擁有約 10 億美元的流動資金，淨債務與資本比率為 5.5%。

Forestar is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry and to consolidate significant market share over the next few years, with its strong balance sheet, lot supply and relationship with D.R. Horton. Mike?

憑藉其強大的資產負債表、地塊供應以及與 D.R.霍頓。麥克風？

Financial Services earned $85 million of pretax income in the fourth quarter on $220 million of revenues, resulting in a pretax profit margin of 38.9%. For the year, financial services earned $283 million of pretax income on $802 million of revenues, resulting in a pretax profit margin of 35.3%.

金融服務第四季稅前收入為 8,500 萬美元，營收為 2.2 億美元，稅前利潤率為 38.9%。今年，金融服務業收入 8.02 億美元，稅前收入 2.83 億美元，稅前利潤率為 35.3%。

During the fourth quarter, virtually all of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations, and our mortgage company handled the financing for 76% of our buyers.

在第四季度，我們的抵押貸款公司幾乎所有的貸款發放都與我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋有關，並且我們的抵押貸款公司為 76% 的買家處理了融資。

FHA and VA loans accounted for 51% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 725 at an average loan-to-value ratio of 87%. The first-time home buyers represented 55% of the closings handled by our mortgage company this quarter. Bill?

FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司貸款量的 51%。本季源自 DHI Mortgage 的借款人的平均 FICO 評分為 725，平均貸款價值比為 87%。首次購屋者佔本季我們抵押貸款公司處理的成交量的 55%。帳單？

Our balanced capital approach is disciplined, flexible and opportunistic to support our operating platform and produce consistent returns, growth and cash flow. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with low leverage and significant liquidity, which provides us with flexibility to adjust to changing market conditions.

我們的平衡資本方法是嚴格、靈活和機會主義的，以支持我們的營運平台並產生一致的回報、成長和現金流。我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表、低槓桿和大量流動性，這為我們提供了適應不斷變化的市場條件的靈活性。

During fiscal 2023, our consolidated cash provided by operations was $4.3 billion, and our cash provided by homebuilding operations was $3.1 billion.

2023 財年，我們的業務提供的綜合現金為 43 億美元，住宅建築業務提供的現金為 31 億美元。

Over the past 5 years, our homebuilding operations have generated $9.6 billion of cash flow. At September 30, we had $7.5 billion of consolidated liquidity, consisting of $3.9 billion of cash and $3.6 billion of available capacity on our credit facilities. We repaid $400 million of senior notes this quarter, and our debt at September 30 totaled $5.1 billion with no senior note maturities in fiscal 2024. Our consolidated leverage at September 30 was 18.3% and consolidated leverage net of cash was 5.1%. At September 30, our stockholders' equity was $22.7 billion, and book value per share was $67.78 up 20% from a year ago.

在過去 5 年裡，我們的住宅建築業務產生了 96 億美元的現金流。截至 9 月 30 日，我們擁有 75 億美元的綜合流動性，其中包括 39 億美元的現金和 36 億美元的可用信貸額度。本季我們償還了4 億美元的優先票據，截至9 月30 日的債務總額為51 億美元，2024 財年沒有優先票據到期。截至9 月30 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為18.3%，扣除現金後的綜合槓桿率為5.1%。截至9月30日，我們的股東權益為227億美元，每股帳面價值為67.78美元，比去年同期成長20%。

For the year, our return on equity was 22.7%.

今年，我們的股本回報率為 22.7%。

During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $84 million for a total of $341 million of dividends paid during the year. We repurchased 3.5 million shares of common stock for $423 million during the quarter. And for the year, we repurchased 11.1 million shares for $1.2 billion, which reduced our outstanding share count by 3% from the prior year-end.

本季度，我們支付了 8,400 萬美元的現金股息，全年支付的股息總額為 3.41 億美元。本季我們以 4.23 億美元的價格回購了 350 萬股普通股。今年，我們以 12 億美元回購了 1,110 萬股股票，這使我們的流通股數量比上年末減少了 3%。

In October, our Board of Directors authorized the repurchase of up to $1.5 billion of our common stock, replacing our previous authorization. Based on our strong financial position and cash flow, our board also increased our quarterly cash dividend by 20% to $0.30 per share. Jessica?

10 月份，我們的董事會授權回購最多 15 億美元的普通股，取代了先前的授權。基於我們強勁的財務狀況和現金流，我們的董事會還將季度現金股息增加了 20% 至每股 0.30 美元。傑西卡？

As we look forward to the first quarter of fiscal 2024, we expect challenging market conditions to persist with continued uncertainty regarding mortgage rates, the capital markets and general economic conditions that may significantly impact our business. In our December quarter, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of $7.4 billion to $7.6 billion, and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of $18,500 to 19,000 homes.

展望 2024 財年第一季度，我們預計充滿挑戰的市場狀況將持續存在，抵押貸款利率、資本市場和總體經濟狀況的持續不確定性可能會對我們的業務產生重大影響。在 12 月季度，我們目前預計將產生 74 億至 76 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 18,500 至 19,000 間房屋之間。

We expect our home sales gross margin in the first quarter to be approximately 23.7% to 24.2% and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues in the first quarter to be around 7.7% to 7.9%. We anticipate a financial services pretax profit margin of between 20% and 25% and we expect our income tax rate to be in the range of 24% to 24.5% in the first quarter.

我們預計第一季房屋銷售毛利率約為 23.7% 至 24.2%，住宅建築銷售、一般費用佔第一季收入的百分比約為 7.7% 至 7.9%。我們預計第一季金融服務稅前利潤率將在 20% 至 25% 之間，所得稅稅率將在 24% 至 24.5% 之間。

We are well positioned to continue consolidating market share in both our home building and rental operations. Our fiscal 2024 home closings volume, pricing and margins in our homebuilding, rental, financial services and Forestar businesses will be determined by market conditions and our efforts to meet the market by balancing pace and price to maximize returns.

我們處於有利地位，可以繼續鞏固我們在住宅建設和租賃業務方面的市場份額。我們的 2024 財年房屋建築、租賃、金融服務和 Forestar 業務的房屋成交量、定價和利潤率將取決於市場狀況以及我們透過平衡速度和價格以最大化回報來滿足市場需求的努力。

For the full year of fiscal 2024, we expect to generate consolidated revenues of approximately $36 billion to $37 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 86,000 to 89,000 homes. We forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2024 in the range of 24% to 24.5%. We expect to generate approximately $3 billion of cash flow from our homebuilding operations.

在 2024 財年全年，我們預計將產生約 360 億至 370 億美元的綜合收入，我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 86,000 至 89,000 套之間。我們預測 2024 財年的所得稅稅率在 24% 至 24.5% 之間。我們預計住宅建築業務將產生約 30 億美元的現金流。

We also plan to repurchase approximately $1.5 billion of our common stock to continue reducing our outstanding share count in addition to dividend payments of around $400 million. We will continue to balance our cash flow utilization priorities among our core homebuilding operations, our rental operations, maintaining conservative leverage and strong liquidity, paying an increased dividend and consistently repurchasing shares. David?

除了支付約 4 億美元的股息外，我們還計劃回購約 15 億美元的普通股，以繼續減少我們的流通股數量。我們將繼續平衡我們的核心住宅建設業務、租賃業務之間的現金流利用優先事項，保持保守的槓桿率和強勁的流動性，支付增加的股息並持續回購股票。大衛？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share and broad geographic footprint across 118 markets. Our strong balance sheet, liquidity and loan leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility to meet changing market conditions and continue aggregating market share. We plan to maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of the company, while consistently returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、領先業界的市場份額以及遍布 118 個市場的廣泛地理足跡。我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和貸款槓桿為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性，可以滿足不斷變化的市場條件並繼續擴大市場份額。我們計劃保持嚴格的資本投資方式，以提高公司的長期價值，同時透過股利和股票回購持續向股東返還資本。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton team for your focus and our work. Good year efforts. We just completed our 22nd consecutive year as the largest and strongest builder in the United States, and we look forward to working together to improve our operations and provide homeownership opportunities to more American families during 2024.

感謝整個 D.R.霍頓團隊感謝您的關注和我們的工作。美好的一年，努力。我們剛剛連續 22 年成為美國最大、最強的建築商，我們期待共同努力，改善我們的運營，並在 2024 年為更多美國家庭提供購房機會。

With my transition to Executive Vice Chair, this will be my last public earnings call. It has been an honor and a privilege to represent and report on the D.R. Horton team's remarkable efforts for the past 10 years. Thank you all again. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

隨著我轉任執行副主席，這將是我最後一次公開財報電話會議。能夠代表並報告 D.R. 是我的榮幸。霍頓團隊過去10年的非凡努力。再次感謝大家。我們準備好的演講到此結束。我們現在將主持提問。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question this morning is coming from John Lovallo from UBS.

（操作員說明）今天早上的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的約翰·洛瓦洛。

First question is just on the gross margin in the quarter of 25.1%. I mean that was well above your expectations, above, I believe, 23.5% to 24%. Despite what seems like a greater use of incentives and perhaps even a higher cost of incentives. Can you just help us kind of work through some of the puts and takes on gross margin in the quarter versus your expectations?

第一個問題是關於本季25.1%的毛利率。我的意思是，這遠遠超出了您的預期，我相信高於 23.5% 至 24%。儘管激勵措施的使用似乎更多，甚至激勵成本可能更高。您能否幫助我們解決本季毛利率與您的預期相比的一些看跌期權和承兌期權？

Sure, John. The second half of the fiscal year, we had a little more relative stability in the rate environment. And so we were able to level off our incentives really in Q3 and Q4. We also then had a little bit of price traction that allowed our average sales price to tick up just a tad in the fourth quarter. .

當然，約翰。本財年下半年，我們的利率環境相對穩定一些。因此，我們能夠在第三季和第四季真正平衡我們的激勵措施。然後，我們還獲得了一點價格牽引力，使我們的平均銷售價格在第四季度略有上升。 。

And then really, one of the biggest benefits was we did see continued improvement in lumber costs. And so our overall stick and brick costs on our homes came down in the quarter. We do think we basically realized the majority of that lumber cost benefit in the near term. And within the more recent rise in interest rates and the use of incentives, that's why we're guiding down for Q1, but we had some benefits that supported the increase in gross margin in Q4.

事實上，最大的好處之一是我們確實看到木材成本持續改善。因此，我們房屋的整體木棍和磚塊成本在本季有所下降。我們確實認為我們在短期內基本上實現了大部分木材成本效益。由於最近利率上升和激勵措施的使用，這就是我們下調第一季指引的原因，但我們有一些好處支持了第四季毛利率的成長。

Okay. That's helpful, Bill. And then maybe sticking with gross margin. As we look forward into the first quarter, the 23.7% to 24.2%. If we think about the sequential decline that's implied in there, I mean it sounds like there's going to be higher incentives and again, maybe a little bit of higher cost. You mentioned that the lumber benefit might be through. What are the other sort of puts and takes that we should consider in that sequential margin?

好的。這很有幫助，比爾。然後也許會堅持毛利率。當我們展望第一季時，比例為 23.7% 至 24.2%。如果我們考慮其中隱含的連續下降，我的意思是，聽起來似乎會有更高的激勵措施，而且成本可能會更高一些。您提到木材福利可能會結束。在這個連續保證金中，我們應該考慮哪些其他類型的看跌期權和看跌期權？

I think you summed it up pretty well, John. I think we see higher incentives coming forward with the rapid rise in interest rates through the last 6 weeks or so, a little bit of moderation last week, which was helpful, but 1 week doesn't make a trend, I don't think. And we do sell a significant number of the homes we closed in the quarter during that quarter. I think for the fourth quarter, 39% of our closings were sold in the quarter. So we're at a pretty real-time indication of margins in the business as it comes through.

我認為你總結得很好，約翰。我認為，隨著過去 6 週左右利率的快速上升，我們看到了更高的激勵措施，上周有一點溫和，這是有幫助的，但 1 週並沒有形成趨勢，我不認為。我們確實出售了該季度關閉的大量房屋。我認為第四季度，我們的成交量中有 39% 是在該季度售出的。因此，我們可以即時了解業務的利潤率。

Your next question is coming from Stephen Kim from Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Stephen Kim。

Congratulations on the good results. You gave an interesting -- well, you gave a guide for $3 billion in homebuilding cash flow for next year. I wanted to get a sense from you, how much of that do you think is going to be benefited by a reduction in work in process inventory?

恭喜取得好成績。你給了一個有趣的——嗯，你給了明年 30 億美元的房屋建築現金流的指南。我想聽聽您的意見，您認為減少在製品庫存會帶來多少好處？

We are able with our improved cycle times. We are seeing improved inventory turns, and our assumption next year is that we will see some further improvement in cycle times and inventory turns. So we are able to operate with a relatively lower level of homebuilding inventory. However, we're also guiding to a volume increase. And so I don't necessarily expect an absolute decrease in our homes and inventory, but we do expect to be turning it faster. So that's definitely a contributing factor to the cash flow.

我們能夠改善週期時間。我們看到庫存週轉率有所改善，我們的假設是明年我們將看到週期時間和庫存週轉率進一步改善。因此，我們能夠以相對較低的住宅建築庫存水準進行運作。然而，我們也正在指導增加數量。因此，我不一定會預期我們的房屋和庫存會絕對減少，但我們確實預計會更快。所以這絕對是現金流的影響因素。

Okay. But not an actual reduction in the WIP levels, okay. That's helpful. So that means that it's really coming from the income and I guess, maybe a reduction in land assets? Would that be fair?

好的。但 WIP 水平並沒有實際減少，好吧。這很有幫助。所以這意味著它確實來自收入，我想，也許是土地資產的減少？這樣公平嗎？

Just an improvement in our terms of our land assets. So yes, primarily from profits that's resulting from the improved turns.

只是我們的土地資產有所改善。所以，是的，主要來自於提高週轉率帶來的利潤。

Nice. Okay. And then second question is related to rate buydowns. Could you give us a sense for what the average rate actually used in the quarter, in your September quarter was for your customers. And if we were to look at sort of what your average is for, let's say, orders being taken today. What would that average rate be?

好的。好的。第二個問題與利率購買有關。您能否讓我們了解一下您的客戶在本季（9 月所在季度）實際使用的平均費率是多少。如果我們要看看你們的平均是多少，比如說今天接受的訂單。平均利率是多少？

The average rate can move quite a bit through the quarter, but we tend to stay about 1 point to 1.25 points below market at any given time. And today, we're offering on an FHA government loans roughly in the 5.99 rate and on conventional and 6.25, which is right in that range of 1.25, 1.5 below today.

整個季度的平均利率可能會有相當大的變動，但我們傾向於在任何特定時間都保持低於市場約 1 點至 1.25 點的水平。今天，我們提供的 FHA 政府貸款利率大致為 5.99，傳統利率為 6.25，恰好在 1.25 的範圍內，比今天低 1.5。

And is that what most people are actually using?

這是大多數人實際使用的嗎？

About 60% of our total closings are used with some form of a rate buy-down. And so a big percentage of and the most successful incentive we have seen has been to impact that monthly cost of homeownership through some form of rate buy down.

我們總成交量的約 60% 是透過某種形式的利率下調來使用的。因此，我們所看到的最成功的激勵措施中很大一部分是透過某種形式的利率下調來影響每月的住房擁有成本。

And sorry, just to clarify, you're saying that 60% of your closings in some form of buy down, do you know what the average rate cutting across all of the kinds of buy-downs that people are using, what that actual rate was underpinning the mortgages?

抱歉，為了澄清一下，你說你的成交額中有 60% 是某種形式的買入，你知道人們正在使用的所有類型的買入的平均利率是多少嗎？實際利率是多少是支撐抵押貸款嗎？

I'm going to say probably in the 6-ish range.

我想說大概在 6 左右的範圍內。

Your next question is coming from Joe Ahlersmeyer from Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Congrats on executing so well this year. I appreciate also the effort to give the visibility for the full year here. I just wanted to talk maybe about those inventory turns a little bit further. Your guidance for closing suggests something above 2x on your current homes and inventory level. I know that's an important threshold for you guys. Just wondering maybe then what the starts look like over the next couple of quarters to make sure that you deliver on that closing guidance in the back half, but also sort of gear up for growth again in 2025, while maintaining that 2x target. Just how the starts could look?

恭喜你今年執行得這麼好。我也很感謝為讓全年的知名度在這裡所做的努力。我只是想談談庫存週轉情況。您的成交指導建議是您目前房屋和庫存水準的 2 倍以上。我知道這對你們來說是一個重要的門檻。只是想知道接下來幾季的開局情況如何，以確保在下半年實現最終目標，同時在 2025 年再次為成長做好準備，同時保持 2 倍的目標。剛開始的時候會是什麼樣子呢？

Sure. Thanks, Joe. Our starts did tick down a little bit sequentially, but our base case subject to market conditions as everything and the strength of the spring is that we would expect to increase our search gradually, quarter-to-quarter as we move throughout the year to position ourselves to deliver on the guidance that we've talked about and then obviously to also exit '24 position to grow into '25. So we're working market-by-market, community by community to improve our production capabilities. And what we want to do is make sure that as we're increasing our starts, it's sustainable. So that's why you're just going to see it gradually happen throughout the year.

當然。謝謝，喬。我們的開工量確實按順序下降了一點，但我們的基本情況取決於市場條件，因為一切和春季的力量是，我們預計隨著我們全年定位，逐季度逐步增加我們的搜索我們自己要兌現我們所討論的指導方針，然後顯然也要退出「24」位置，成長為「25」。因此，我們正在逐一市場、逐一社區地開展工作，以提高我們的生產能力。我們想要做的是確保當我們增加開工時，它是可持續的。這就是為什麼你會看到它在一年中逐漸發生。

Understood. Okay. And then thinking about your return on inventory on a trailing basis has been normalizing, of course. But where do you think that can settle out if you've got headwinds maybe on the profitability side from land and incentives, the tailwinds from that production efficiency. Could we actually sort of see settle out here in the high 20s? Is that realistic?

明白了。好的。當然，追蹤庫存回報率的思考已經正常化。但如果你在獲利方面遇到來自土地和激勵措施的逆風，以及來自生產效率的順風，你認為這可以在哪裡解決？我們真的能在20多歲的時候安定下來嗎？這現實嗎？

Well, the way we're running our business, the way we underwrite our land deals, that's our focus with our focus on purchasing finished lots and as many deals as we can. Yes, our goal would be to keep that return on inventory in the homebuilding business as high as we can. And so definitely, mid- to high 20s is a good level for us. It does fluctuate with where gross margins are. So we've been coming down off of some of the peak gross margins we saw last year, but definitely mid- to high 20s is a level that we're striving to achieve.

嗯，我們經營業務的方式，我們承保土地交易的方式，這就是我們的重點，我們專注於購買成品地塊和盡可能多的交易。是的，我們的目標是盡可能保持住宅建築業務的庫存回報率較高。所以毫無疑問，20 歲左右對我們來說是一個不錯的水平。它確實隨著毛利率的變化而波動。因此，我們的毛利率已經從去年的峰值水平有所下降，但 20 多歲的中高水平肯定是我們正在努力實現的水平。

Your next question is coming from Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Congratulations, Paul. Congratulations, David. Joe stole one of my questions. But looking at the guide for next year, are you anticipating much alteration in mix in terms of geography or price points? And I'm particularly interested in some of the smaller markets where you all are really the only large builder, a couple of the acquisitions you've done. What percentage of deliveries next year do you think might come from markets like that, however you want to define it?

恭喜，保羅。恭喜你，大衛。喬偷走了我的一個問題。但看看明年的指南，您是否預計在地理或價格點方面的組合會有很大變化？我對一些較小的市場特別感興趣，在這些市場中，你們確實是唯一的大型建築商，你們已經完成了一些收購。無論您如何定義，您認為明年的交貨量將有多少百分比來自此類市場？

Don't probably have a good breakdown of deliveries by market, stratified by market size or recent entrants. But we do expect to see probably a rotation to smaller home footprints and introduction of smaller plans where we can get municipality approvals. Again, just to maintain the affordability, I think we will see that -- we're going to continue to roll with starts, but the compressed cycle times that we've gotten out of our construction process is going to allow us to deliver a lot more homes on fewer homes carried in inventory at any given quarter end date.

可能沒有按市場、按市場規模或最近進入者分層的交付量的詳細分類。但我們確實預計可能會轉向更小的住宅佔地面積，並引入更小的計劃，以便我們能夠獲得市政府的批准。再說一次，為了保持負擔能力，我認為我們會看到——我們將繼續啟動，但我們從施工過程中獲得的壓縮週期時間將使我們能夠交付在任何給定的季度結束日期，庫存中的房屋數量會減少，數量會增加。

And then Carl, not -- this doesn't perfectly answer your question, but I do want to let people know that in our investor presentation, we're going to post as we usually do post the call. We've updated our market share dominant slide pretty dramatically to make sure it aligns with all of the markets we operate in. We did a lot of work with Zonda and our internal data. And so now instead of just reporting on the top 50 U.S. housing markets and where we rank in those, we're talking about all 118. And so it will give you some more insight into where we are in terms of whether we're #1, top 5, top 10.

然後卡爾，這並不能完美回答你的問題，但我確實想讓人們知道，在我們的投資者演示中，我們將像通常發布電話會議一樣發布。我們大幅更新了我們的市場份額主導幻燈片，以確保它與我們運營的所有市場保持一致。我們對 Zonda 和我們的內部數據做了很多工作。因此，現在我們不再只報告美國前 50 個房地產市場以及我們在這些市場中的排名，而是討論所有 118 個房地產市場。因此，這將使您更深入地了解我們是否處於 # 狀態。1,前5名、前10名。

Out of the 118 markets we're in today, only 7 were not top 10 in and we went through those last night and they are all markets that we essentially have just entered within the last year or 2. So we would expect to be top 10 very quickly and then move up into the top 5 and certainly continue to work on becoming #1. So it doesn't answer geographic mix, but I did want to kind of plug the fact that we gave incremental data on market share that we hadn't historically put out there.

在我們今天參與的 118 個市場中，只有 7 個不是前 10 名，我們昨晚經歷了這些市場，它們基本上都是我們在過去一兩年內剛進入的市場。因此，我們預計會成為頂級市場很快就會進入第10 位，然後進入前5 位，並且肯定會繼續努力成為第1 位。所以它不能回答地理混合問題，但我確實想補充這樣一個事實，即我們提供了歷史上從未發布過的市場份額增量數據。

That's great. And then just as a follow-up, I know you're not guiding on the rental business in 2024. It's becoming a bigger portion of the PTI and obviously taking up some balance sheet. From an institutional investor perspective on both multifamily and single family, how is that appetite fared for the projects you're selling it stabilized occupancy? Obviously, spreads have come in there, but there's also a lot of capital, I would guess chasing both asset classes. So I'm just sort of curious what you're seeing from those customers.

那太棒了。作為後續行動，我知道您不會對 2024 年的租賃業務進行指導。它正在成為 PTI 的更大部分，並且顯然佔據了一些資產負債表。從機構投資者對多戶住宅和單戶住宅​​的角度來看，您所出售的項目的需求如何穩定入住率？顯然，利差已經出現，但我猜也有大量資本追逐這兩種資產類別。所以我只是有點好奇你從這些客戶身上看到了什麼。

Yes. We are still seeing strong interest, Carl, from the institutional investors that are out there. As you mentioned, the spreads have come in. And we're going to see some volatility in gross margin as we move through this process and move through the markets of higher rates, but still seeing consistent activity. I still feel we are in a great position to be the dominant supplier of single-family rental and continuing to grow our multifamily platform.

是的。卡爾，我們仍然看到機構投資者的濃厚興趣。正如您所提到的，利差已經出現。當我們經歷這個過程並進入利率較高的市場時，我們將看到毛利率出現一些波動，但仍然看到一致的活動。我仍然認為我們有能力成為單戶租賃的主要供應商，並繼續發展我們的多戶平台。

Your next question is coming from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

Good morning, everyone. I wanted to focus for a moment on the fiscal '24 closings growth guidance of up 4% to 7%. It seems like that's a little bit below maybe what you typically shoot for in kind of like a high single-digit range, if I'm not mistaken. And I'm just curious if that's a function of maybe the current backdrop with the recent move in rates.

大家，早安。我想專注於 24 財年成交額成長指導，即成長 4% 至 7%。如果我沒記錯的話，這似乎比你通常所追求的高個位數範圍要低一點。我只是好奇這是否是當前利率變動背景的函數。

Also, obviously, your backlog is still down over 20% year-over-year. Just kind of wondering if there's a little bit of a timing gap here given the backlog, maybe given the current environment, that high single-digit rate is something we should think about you guys maybe returning to in 2025, all else equal?

此外，顯然，您的積壓訂單仍同比下降 20% 以上。只是有點想知道，考慮到積壓，也許考慮到當前的環境，我們應該考慮一下，在其他條件相同的情況下，你們可能會在 2025 年回到高個位數的比率，是否存在一點時間差距？

Yes. No, great question, Mike. We expected it. We do talk about always positioning ourselves for growth, and you typically hear us talk about plus or minus 10% is how we're going to position the company. If you look at how we're exiting '23 though and our guide for fiscal '24 closing, it does already assume our typical 2x housing turn, actually a little bit better than that at the high end. So 2.04x to 2.11x would be our guide.

是的。不，很好的問題，麥克。我們預料到了。我們確實談到始終為自己的成長定位，你通常會聽到我們談論正負 10% 是我們如何定位公司的。如果你看看我們如何退出 23 年以及我們的 24 財年結束指南，它確實已經假設了我們典型的 2 倍住房轉向，實際上比高端的情況要好一些。所以 2.04x 到 2.11x 將是我們的指導。

And so it's already incorporating our improvement in cycle times. And if we continue to be able to have success with that throughout the year, we'll consider that in what we talk about publicly in terms of what we're able to deliver for fiscal '24. But as we sit here in November, that's a realistic expectation for closing with the visibility that we have today. It's not necessarily that we've seen a big falloff in demand. Obviously, our sales were up very strong. And so it's more a function of the houses we have in inventory in our cycle times.

因此，它已經融入了我們對週期時間的改進。如果我們繼續能夠在這一年中取得成功，我們將在公開談論的內容中考慮我們能夠在 24 財年實現的目標。但當我們 11 月坐在這裡時，以今天的可見度結束，這是一個現實的期望。我們不一定看到需求大幅下降。顯然，我們的銷售額成長非常強勁。因此，這更多的是我們週期內庫存房屋的函數。

Makes sense. I'm sorry, were you going to add something, Paul?

說得通。抱歉，保羅，你要補充些什麼嗎？

This is Mike. Just following on with that is that our lot position is very strong right now. We have own 50,000 lots that are finished, and there's obviously more that are in the controlled portion of our portfolio, that as we see the market unfold for the year, we will be able to accelerate starts to meet any increased demand. Coming into '24, we saw -- or coming into '23, we saw a rate spike at the end '22 and we're a little concerned about the year and the outlook we gave last year at this time. And the team stepped up and delivered a great year in fiscal '22 -- fiscal '23 and against that backdrop. So positioning for conservatism in the year, but always are -- have a desire to grow and to grow in that double-digit level.

這是麥克。緊隨其後的是，我們現在的位置非常強勁。我們擁有已完成的 50,000 塊地塊，而且顯然還有更多地塊在我們投資組合的受控部分中，隨著我們看到今年市場的發展，我們將能夠加快啟動以滿足任何增加的需求。進入 24 年，我們看到 - 或者進入 23 年，我們看到 22 年底利率飆升，我們對這一年以及我們去年給出的前景有點擔心。在此背景下，團隊挺身而出，在 22 財年和 23 財年取得了出色的業績。因此，今年的定位是保守的，但始終是——渴望增長，並以兩位數的水平增長。

Right. I guess also just wanted to circle back. You had mentioned with regard to sticks and bricks, 6% lot inflation. Is that something that has been accelerating, I guess, not just sticks and bricks, but maybe just more broadly, where is lot and as well as construction cost inflation for the fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis? And how do you expect that to play out in '24 based on current trends? And would that require some amount of price appreciation to offset, let's say, to maintain your fiscal -- your first quarter gross margins?

正確的。我想也只是想繞回來。您曾提到關於木棍和磚塊的通貨膨脹率為 6%。我想，這種情況是否一直在加速，不僅僅是棍棒和磚塊，而且可能只是更廣泛地，第四季的地塊和建築成本比去年同期上漲在哪裡？根據當前趨勢，您預計 24 年會如何發展？比如說，這是否需要一定程度的價格上漲來抵消，以維持您的財政——第一季的毛利率？

Mike, sticks and bricks, we've been, the last couple of quarters, have been seeing the benefit of lower lumber costs. However, across most other cost categories, in the vertical construction costs, we are still seeing modest inflation. So on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, our stick and brick costs were down 3.5% on a per square foot basis. But our lot costs were up 11%. So we're seeing more inflation in our lot costs. And so as we look forward into fiscal '24, we would expect to continue to see inflation in our lot costs as land moves through and development cost inflation that continues -- and I think we would still expect to still see some modest inflation in some of the other stick and brick categories.

麥克，棍棒和磚塊，過去幾季我們已經看到了木材成本降低的好處。然而，在大多數其他成本類別中，在垂直建設成本中，我們仍然看到溫和的通膨。因此，本季與去年同期相比，我們每平方英尺的木棍和磚塊成本下降了 3.5%。但我們的批量成本卻上漲了 11%。因此，我們的批量成本出現了更多的通貨膨脹。因此，當我們展望 24 財年時，隨著土地的移動和開發成本的持續上漲，我們預計地塊成本將繼續出現通貨膨脹，而且我認為我們仍然預計某些地區仍會出現適度的通貨膨脹。其他棒和磚塊類別。

There has been some recent moderation in lumber costs that -- as we move through '24, we may see some we expect to see some benefit from. But overall, I think we still expect costs to show moderate inflation.

最近木材成本有所下降——隨著我們進入 24 年，我們可能會看到一些我們預計會從中受益的成本。但總體而言，我認為我們仍然預計成本將顯示溫和的通膨。

As far as price appreciation with the current rate environment, the volatility and the recent rise in rates, we're not expecting any price appreciation. Our base case would probably expect a little bit of downward pressure on prices. And as we've already talked about, we are using higher incentives going into the first part of the year. Now rate environment can change. Strength of the market can change as we go into the spring, and so we'll adjust depending on what we see in the market as we get further into the year.

就當前利率環境、波動性和近期利率上升所導致的價格升值而言，我們預期價格不會有任何升值。我們的基本預測可能會預期價格會出現一些下行壓力。正如我們已經討論過的，我們將在今年上半年使用更高的激勵措施。現在利率環境可能會改變。隨著春季的到來，市場的強度可能會發生變化，因此，隨著今年的進一步深入，我們將根據市場的情況進行調整。

And Carl asked about geographic mix, but that's a good point here in terms of just our reported average sales price. We are continuing to shift, as we said in our prepared remarks, to more and more of our smaller floor plans to address affordability issues in the market. So we could have some downward pressure on price that's solely just a function of product mix.

卡爾詢問了地理組合，但就我們報告的平均銷售價格而言，這是一個很好的觀點。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們正在繼續轉向越來越多的小型平面圖，以解決市場的負擔能力問題。因此，我們可能會面臨一些價格下行壓力，這只是產品組合的一個函數。

Your next question is coming from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

So just given all the, of course, interest rate volatility these past several weeks, I'm curious. Number one, given what you're doing with rate buy-downs, are you finding that sales pace is reacting quickly to these sort of numbing moves in interest rate rates? That's number one. And number two, I mean, I guess, just any color on your own sales pace into October and November, how you're kind of thinking about seasonality of orders here in the first quarter?

當然，考慮到過去幾週的利率波動，我很好奇。第一，考慮到您正在採取的降息措施，您是否發現銷售速度對利率的這種令人麻木的變動做出了快速反應？這是第一名。第二，我想，你自己的銷售節奏到 10 月和 11 月的任何顏色，你如何看待第一季訂單的季節性？

Yes. As you know, we don't report on sales forecast on sales, but we are pleased with our sales thus far into October. And you certainly see fluctuations in traffic when we see the kind of moves that we've seen over the last couple of weeks, both up and down in rates, but with our ability to hold stable rates through our interest rate incentives, we've been able to convert pretty consistently with the buyers that we've had out there. But any time you have fluctuations in rates, we're going to see people pause for a period of time until they settle into the reality of what they can afford.

是的。如您所知，我們不會報告銷售預測，但我們對 10 月迄今為止的銷售情況感到滿意。當我們看到過去幾週我們看到的利率上升和下降的變化時，你肯定會看到流量的波動，但由於我們有能力透過利率激勵措施保持穩定的利率，我們已經能夠與我們現有的買家保持一致的轉化。但只要利率出現波動，我們就會看到人們停頓一段時間，直到他們接受自己能負擔的現實。

And we're also going into the seasonally slowest time of the year. So November and December typically are the slowest sales months as you get to the holidays, so we're going to continue to focus ourselves on meeting the market but not making in a new drastic adjustments to our business plan, and we're going to wait and see how the spring unfolds and make sure that we're continuing to start houses going into the spring.

我們也即將進入一年中季節性最慢的時期。因此，十一月和十二月通常是假期期間銷售最慢的月份，因此我們將繼續專注於滿足市場需求，但不會對我們的業務計劃進行新的大幅調整，我們將等著看春天如何展開，並確保我們在春天繼續開工建造房屋。

Got it. Okay. That's really helpful color. And then secondly, on the rental side, I know you're not guiding the top line in '24. You did mention that multifamily units would be, I think you said, would be rising in year-over-year. Clearly, there is a lot of supply coming online, I think in the multifamily world broadly. What can you say around the margin side and what you might be expecting on the margins of those multifamily unit sales next year?

知道了。好的。這真是有用的顏色。其次，在租賃方面，我知道你不會指導 24 年的營收。您確實提到，我想您說過，多戶單位將逐年增加。顯然，我認為在多戶住宅領域，有大量的線上供應。您對利潤方面有何看法？您對明年多戶單位銷售的利潤有何預期？

I think we will see probably margins compress a bit on those multifamily sales just if interest rates have come up and cap rates tend to come up. The question of how much supply is out there is really specific to a given project in a given submarket that, that project serves. And our team has done a great job of looking at those submarkets when we made the decision to move forward with the projects cognizant of what was available in the marketplace, both ahead of us and behind us from a supply perspective. So we feel pretty good about being able to deliver into a healthy demand environment. We're still seeing good lease-ups in our rental properties in line with expectations. So we're very encouraged by that.

我認為，如果利率上升且資本化率趨於上升，我們可能會看到多戶住宅銷售的利潤率會壓縮。供應量有多少的問題實際上是特定於該項目所服務的給定子市場中的給定項目的。當我們決定推進專案時，我們的團隊在研究這些子市場方面做得非常出色，他們認識到市場上現有的東西，從供應的角度來看，無論是在我們之前還是在我們之後。因此，我們對能夠在健康的需求環境中提供服務感到非常滿意。我們的租賃物業的租賃情況仍然良好，符合預期。所以我們對此感到非常鼓舞。

Your next question is coming from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

您的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

First off, congrats to Paul and David, and good luck with the transition. Second, I think the topic that we get the most questions on are the sustainability of the rate buydowns that you guys are offering and the industry is offering right now. And I guess my question to you, and I hear us through -- I listened through some of your comments on the puts and takes on margin and a lot of cost inflation starting to accelerate and maybe stick and brick costs also inflecting higher again after being a good guide this year.

首先，恭喜保羅和大衛，祝過渡順利。其次，我認為我們收到最多問題的話題是你們和產業目前提供的利率回購的可持續性。我想我的問題是問你的，我聽到了我們的聲音——我聽了你對保證金看跌期權和期權的一些評論，很多成本通脹開始加速，也許棒和磚成本在被調整後也再次走高。今年的一個很好的指南。

Is there a point where you look at your margin obviously, it's very healthy today, but a point where it becomes harder to continue buying down that rate 100, 150 basis points. And what is that threshold for you?

是否有一個點，你會明顯地看到你的利潤率，今天它非常健康，但在這個點上，繼續以 100、150 個基點的利率買入會變得更加困難。對你來說這個門檻是什麼？

We're going to operate the neighborhoods, but focused on return as usual, Alan, and it's going to be a pace and a price conversation continually. And the rates, buy-downs, the incentives that we offer. It's just part of the mix of the cost environment that we deal with. And while we've seen some nice relief in the stick and brick cost, we have had some price pressure on other sides of it, but fuel prices have come down, that should give us a little bit of relief across a pretty broad spectrum of commodities as well as delivery cost. So it's a constant give-and-take on the cost and the margins. And our primary focus in guiding star is returns.

我們將經營這些社區，但像往常一樣專注於回報，艾倫，這將是持續的節奏和價格對話。以及我們提供的利率、減價和激勵措施。這只是我們所處理的成本環境組合的一部分。雖然我們看到棍子和磚塊的成本得到了一些很好的緩解，但我們在其他方面也遇到了一些價格壓力，但燃料價格已經下降，這應該會給我們在相當廣泛的範圍內帶來一些緩解。商品以及運輸成本。因此，這是成本和利潤方面的不斷妥協。我們對引導之星的主要關注點是回報。

And we're going into the year with a very strong start, and we did say that our gross margins are expected to decline in Q1, but we're coming off at 25.1% in Q4, which is below the peaks that we achieved last year. But it's still a very healthy gross margin that gives us some room to meet the market and maximize returns and still post very healthy returns.

我們將以非常強勁的開局進入這一年，我們確實說過我們的毛利率預計會在第一季度下降，但第四季度我們的毛利率為 25.1%，低於我們去年達到的峰值年。但這仍然是一個非常健康的毛利率，為我們提供了一些空間來滿足市場需求並最大化回報，並且仍然獲得非常健康的回報。

Makes sense. Absolutely. The starting point is certainly very healthy, Jessica. So I appreciate that. Second question, I would love to hear your thoughts on just credit availability in general. On one hand, I think there's certainly a nice tailwind to the public builders given your balance sheet and access to liquidity and capital and the ability to use that to take market share. On the other hand, your suppliers and your trades are certainly dependent on credit availability to fund their businesses and headlines out of the Fed report yesterday, obviously point to continued tightening there and your land developers probably are dependent on bank credit as well.

說得通。絕對地。潔西卡，這個起點當然是非常健康的。所以我很欣賞這一點。第二個問題，我很想聽聽您對一般信貸可用性的看法。一方面，我認為考慮到公共建築商的資產負債表、流動性和資本的管道以及利用這些來獲取市場份額的能力，這肯定會給公共建築商帶來良好的推動力。另一方面，你的供應商和你的交易肯定依賴於信貸可用性來為其業務提供資金，昨天聯準會報告的頭條新聞顯然表明那裡的政策持續緊縮，而你的土地開發商也可能依賴銀行信貸。

So in your conversations with trades and suppliers and developers, are you starting to see any indications of stress throughout the channel as a result of credit tightening? And on the flip side, are you seeing any opportunities come from that?

那麼，在您與行業、供應商和開發商的對話中，您是否開始看到信貸緊縮導致整個管道面臨壓力的跡象？另一方面，您是否看到了由此帶來的任何機會？

I think anytime you see rates like they have been in the capital markets, a bit in flux, and we're going to see some headwinds from our developers from less capitalized builders. And it will create some opportunities, but we feel like we've got a good plan and open communications with our vendors, our trades and our lot suppliers to continue to work through those processes.

我認為，任何時候你看到的利率就像資本市場上的利率一樣，有點變化，我們都會看到來自資本較少的建築商和開發商的一些阻力。它將創造一些機會，但我們覺得我們已經有了一個很好的計劃，並與我們的供應商、我們的行業和我們的批次供應商進行了開放的溝通，以繼續完成這些流程。

Your next question is coming from Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

Congratulations on the transition to David and Paul. I'm wondering, understanding the -- your entire offering is fairly affordable. I'm wondering if there's a specific buyer type you're seeing as kind of best positioned to weather higher for longer rates. Are your move-up buyers meaningfully outperforming first-time buyers? Are you seeing more buyers move down market to more affordable offerings? I'm just wondering what you're seeing there and if you're making any sort of strategic shifts to target a different mix of buyers.

恭喜大衛和保羅的過渡。我想知道，您的整個產品價格相當實惠。我想知道您是否認為某種特定的買家類型最適合承受更高的價格和更長的價格。您的升級買家是否明顯優於首次買家？您是否看到越來越多的買家轉向下游市場購買更實惠的產品？我只是想知道您在那裡看到了什麼，以及您是否正在做出任何策略轉變以針對不同的買家組合。

I think our buyers are focused primarily on affordability. And for us, the way we deliver that affordability is through the monthly payment process. And that's obviously been a big driver for the rate buydowns, but also introducing smaller product footprints. [De-amenitizing] some of the homes a bit and letting people do things to improve their homes after the closing, when their financial position perhaps has changed and they can afford a little more. But it's continuing to hit a price point relative to median income so that we can find a place to work in that family's budget.

我認為我們的買家主要關注的是負擔能力。對我們來說，我們提供負擔能力的方式是透過每月付款流程。這顯然是降價的一個重要推動因素，但也帶來了更小的產品足跡。 [去便利化]一些房屋，讓人們在交割後做一些事情來改善他們的房屋，那時他們的財務狀況可能已經發生了變化，他們可以負擔更多。但相對於收入中位數，它繼續達到一個價格點，這樣我們就可以在家庭預算中找到工作的地方。

And we still really like over half of our business being first-time homebuyers because despite what's happening with interest rates, those buyers need a place to live. They don't already own a home, so they're not a discretionary buyer. They're in the market looking at buy versus rent opportunities. So if we can stay competitive with the rental market on that front, we're going to continue to capture for some homebuyer market share.

我們仍然非常喜歡我們一半以上的業務是首次購房者，因為儘管利率發生了變化，但這些買家需要一個地方居住。他們還沒有擁有房屋，因此他們不是自由買家。他們在市場上尋找購買與租賃的機會。因此，如果我們能夠在這方面保持與租賃市場的競爭力，我們將繼續佔領一些購屋者市場份額。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just following up on something Mike said, I think this time last year, you elected not to give very detailed full year outlook for '23 with the volatile rate environment. I guess big picture, can you talk about what is giving you confidence to provide more detailed guidance now with mortgage rates near 8%? Is it just the experience of kind of managing through higher rates and the success of the buy down? Or are you seeing something different with the consumer? Just wondering how you could contrast where we are now versus 12 months ago?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後只是跟進麥克所說的話，我認為去年這個時候，在利率環境波動的情況下，您選擇不給出非常詳細的 23 年全年展望。我想從大局來看，您能談談是什麼讓您有信心在抵押貸款利率接近 8% 的情況下提供更詳細的指導嗎？這僅僅是透過更高的利率進行管理和成功買入的經驗嗎？或者您對消費者有什麼不同的看法嗎？只是想知道如何對比我們現在的情況與 12 個月前的情況？

I think 12 months ago, we were facing 2 big issues. We were still trying to solve the production supply chain challenges and our cycle times were very elongated. So we had a hard time determining exactly what homes are going to finish and deliver. And that was also a big interaction with the rate buy-down process because we can only buy rates down for certain forward amount of time in a cost-effective manner.

我認為 12 個月前，我們面臨兩個大問題。我們仍在努力解決生產供應鏈的挑戰，我們的週期時間非常長。因此，我們很難確定到底要完成和交付哪些房屋。這也是與利率下調過程的一個重要相互作用，因為我們只能以具有成本效益的方式在一定的遠期時間內下調利率。

And so being able to pinpoint when those homes would deliver into the buy-down environment. And then you touched on the second point with the rates. Yes, we still are facing some rate uncertainty and increases, but we have been able to manage through that over the past 12 months, and the team has delivered a really strong year.

因此能夠準確地確定這些房屋何時會進入購​​買環境。然後你談到了第二點的費率。是的，我們仍然面臨著一些利率不確定性和利率上漲的問題，但在過去 12 個月裡我們已經能夠應對這些問題，並且團隊交付了非常強勁的一年。

Your next question is coming from Ken Zener from Seaport Research Partners.

您的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Ken Zener。

I'd like to take a step back just to bridge 3 CEOs, if we could here. So it was 10 years ago, David, congratulations that you got on the call at the time, and it's going to be about margins. So Don talked about at the time [20-10-10] so 20% gross margin, 2 turns. David, as we all recall, when you came on shortly thereafter Express, obviously, a great product. And you guys pulled gross margins down to guidance into '19, '21 focusing on asset turns, consistent with Don's comments, and it's been great.

如果可以的話，我想退後一步，為三位執行長架起橋樑。那是 10 年前的事了，大衛，恭喜你當時接到了電話，會議的主題是利潤率。所以唐當時談到[20-10-10]所以20%毛利率，2回合。大衛，我們都記得，當你不久後加入 Express 時，顯然，這是一個很棒的產品。你們將毛利率拉低至 19、21 年的指導，重點關注資產週轉，這與 Don 的評論一致，這非常棒。

Now, Paul, I certainly want to give you a chance to give your fingerprints on this. Could you comment on those prior -- well, CEO's comments why it's different today and perhaps tie that into your top rise in comments on your exposure to non-top 50 markets. That's my first question. Simple.

現在，保羅，我當然想給你一個機會在這件事上留下你的指紋。您能否評論一下先前的評論——嗯，執行長的評論為什麼今天有所不同，也許將其與您對非前 50 個市場的評論的最高漲幅聯繫起來。這是我的第一個問題。簡單的。

Well, I think we -- the team that's at the table is a team that was at the table last quarter last year and the prior several. We have a great position and are aligned as a company, not just from this group, but with our regional leadership and our division leadership. And we have continued to focus on returns community by community. And we have the benefit now of a wider footprint across the geographic area that we've expanded on, which is going to continue to provide strength for us and supply as we continue to expand in those markets.

嗯，我認為我們——在座的團隊是去年上個季度和前幾季在座的團隊。我們擁有優越的地位，並且作為一家公司，不僅與該集團保持一致，而且與我們的區域領導和部門領導保持一致。我們持續關注各個社區的回報。我們現在的優勢是在我們已經擴張的地理區域中擁有更廣泛的足跡，這將繼續為我們提供力量和供應，因為我們繼續在這些市場上擴張。

So the short version is we feel really good about where we are. I don't feel the need to put a stamped footprint or fingerprint on something unique and different because we have a strong team and a great operation in play, and a good playbook that we are executing on every day.

簡而言之，我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。我覺得沒有必要在獨特和不同的東西上留下印記或指紋，因為我們擁有一支強大的團隊和出色的運作，以及我們每天都在執行的良好劇本。

And Ken asked me to try to stay off this Q&A. Everything -- you go back 45-year history. The goal of the company is to be the low-cost provider of affordable housing, and create opportunities for first-time homebuyers to get in a home. And everything we've done through those years has been to position the company a little bit better and a little bit stronger. And then the awakening of '08, '09 and '10, I think, created a discipline in operations that made the transition from margin to return pretty much an industry standard today.

肯要我盡量不要參與這個問答。一切——你可以追溯到 45 年的歷史。該公司的目標是成為經濟適用房的低成本提供商，並為首次購房者創造購房機會。這些年來我們所做的一切都是為了讓公司變得更好、更強大。我認為，08 年、09 年和 10 年的覺醒創造了營運紀律，使從利潤到回報的轉變幾乎成為當今的行業標準。

You listen to other builder calls and everybody is talking about returns, cash flow, deleveraging and derisking their land pipeline. And that's -- that -- I don't see that changing. The industry has matured, the market share consolidation by the public, the difficulty of putting lots on the ground, the difficulty of building houses, restrictions on capital, all of those things are forcing a discipline on the industry and allowing the -- what I think the national builders to gain market share quarter after quarter after quarter after quarter.

你聽到其他建築商的電話，每個人都在談論回報、現金流、去槓桿化和降低土地管道風險。那就是——那——我不認為這種情況會改變。這個行業已經成熟了，公眾的市場份額整合，土地的建設困難，建房的困難，資本的限制，所有這些都在迫使行業遵守紀律，並允許--我認為全國建築商將逐季獲得市場份額。

So our internal focus is going to continue to be project by project, driving improvements to efficiency, simplifying product, making it even as overall individual component price increases the availability of housing to the first-time homebuyer continues to be there. So that's our goal. That's all we think about every day. And I think earlier, somebody said something about sustainable. Everything we do, if it's not sustainable, we leave it in the trash bowl and move on. So scalable, sustainable, consistent and transparent. I mean that's this team, that's built alignment throughout our company, and I don't see that changing. Paul will do things differently than I do. I mean he's taller than I.

因此，我們的內部重點將繼續是逐個項目，推動效率的提高，簡化產品，即使整體單一組件價格上漲，首次購屋者仍能獲得住房。這就是我們的目標。這就是我們每天所想的。我想早些時候，有人說過一些關於永續發展的事情。我們所做的一切，如果不可持續，我們就會將其扔進垃圾桶並繼續前進。如此可擴展、可持續、一致和透明。我的意思是，這就是這個團隊，整個公司都建立了一致，我認為這種情況不會改變。保羅會做與我不同的事。我是說他比我高。

It's a good thing coming down the ladder. I feel very good about the position we're in. Never been as well positioned as a company.

從梯子上下來是一件好事。我對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。從來沒有像一家公司那樣處於如此好的位置。

Yes. I can see Paul was taller. I was watching some of YouTube videos. I guess not everybody is focused on returns as you. And I would say that you're -- I'm sorry. So focused on returns, I'd like you to expand on your comments that if you're taking down 54% of your options are finished, is that a fair basis for your mix of closings coming from finished lots? And are those geared more towards the non top 50 markets, which is about 1/3 of your closings?

是的。我可以看到保羅更高。我正在觀看一些 YouTube 影片。我想不是每個人都像你一樣專注於回報。我想說的是——我很抱歉。如此專注於回報，我希望您能詳細闡述您的評論，即如果您要取消 54% 的期權已完成，那麼這是您來自成品地塊的成交組合的公平基礎嗎？這些是否更針對非前 50 名市場（約佔您成交量的 1/3）？

So to the first part of your question, we're over 60% of the houses that we're closing today, or developed for this past fiscal year on a lot developed by a third party. So the 54% is kind of a minimum that we would expect to take down finished because in a lot of cases, as you likely recall, industry practices for -- we have hundreds of land professionals across the country that are very good at what they do. So they'll go out, source the land, negotiate it with the land seller, put it under contract and then we'll go find a third-party developer.

因此，對於你問題的第一部分，我們今天關閉的房屋中有超過 60% 是由第三方開發的，或者是在上個財年開發的。因此，54% 是我們期望完成的最低限度，因為在很多情況下，正如您可能還記得的那樣，行業慣例 - 我們在全國各地有數百名土地專業人士，他們非常擅長他們的工作做。所以他們會出去尋找土地，與土地賣家進行談判，簽訂合同，然後我們去找第三方開發商。

So in a lot of cases, some of that stuff and the other 45% that we maybe today has not identified who's going to develop it. By the time we bring it on our balance sheet, it will be from a third party. And then in terms of the markets where we're buying more finished lots versus not, do you expect that to skew?

所以在很多情況下，其中一些東西和我們今天可能還沒有確定的其他 45% 的東西將由誰來開發。當我們將其納入資產負債表時，它將來自第三方。然後，就我們購買更多成品的市場而言，您認為這種情況會出現偏差嗎？

No, I don't expect that to skew, Ken. We continue to build our developer partnerships in all markets. And I would expect that over time, you'll continue to see a rise, not a reduction in the number of lots we buy fully developed as we derisk our balance sheet and our lot pipeline.

不，我不認為情況會出現偏差，肯。我們繼續在所有市場建立開發者合作夥伴關係。我預計，隨著時間的推移，我們購買的完全開發的地塊數量將繼續增加，而不是減少，因為我們降低了資產負債表和地塊管道的風險。

Thank you very much. Thank you, David.

非常感謝。謝謝你，大衛。

Thank you, Ken. I appreciate the support through the years.

謝謝你，肯。我感謝多年來的支持。

Your next question is coming from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

你們的下一個問題來自高盛的蘇珊‧馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

My first question is around the community count growth. Any thoughts there on how we should be thinking about that for 2024? Is something in that mid- to high single-digit range as you talked about in the past still a reasonable goal?

我的第一個問題是關於社區數量的成長。對於 2024 年我們應該如何考慮這個問題，您有什麼想法嗎？您過去談到的中高個位數範圍內的目標仍然是合理的目標嗎？

On a year-over-year basis, So, yes, I think we would expect as we look at fiscal '24, we've driven a lot of increased absorption out of our communities for quite some time now. And so we're shifting to some of that growth now coming from just incremental community count and continuing to expand our footprint. So I think mid- to high single is a good base case. We don't specifically guide the community count for a reason. It's pretty hard to predict just because there are so many moving pieces to communities coming on and offline, but I do think that's a reasonable base case assumption that we'll obviously update as we move throughout the year if necessary.

與去年同期相比，所以，是的，我認為，當我們審視 24 財年時，我們預計，在相當長的一段時間內，我們已經推動了社區的吸收量大幅增加。因此，我們現在的成長部分來自於社區數量的增加，並繼續擴大我們的足跡。所以我認為中高單是一個很好的基本情況。我們沒有具體指導社區數量是有原因的。很難預測，因為社區中有很多移動的內容上線和離線，但我確實認為這是一個合理的基本案例假設，如果有必要，我們顯然會在全年移動時進行更新。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you're guiding to buying back $1.5 billion of stock over the next year, which is up versus the $1 billion that you did in this past year. Can you just talk about what's driving that confidence? How you're thinking about the cash generation of the business as you go forward from here? And what that could mean in terms of capital allocation priorities?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，您計劃在明年回購 15 億美元的股票，這比您去年回購的 10 億美元有所增加。您能談談是什麼推動了這種信心嗎？當您從現在開始前進時，您如何考慮業務的現金產生？這對於資本配置優先順序意味著什麼？

Sure, Sue. It's been the goal of ours to consistently repurchase shares over time and grow that over time. And so this is just another step in that progression. And in the business, as we see I'd say, increased visibility and confidence in our ability to generate cash flow into fiscal '24. That's given us a little more certainty around being able to guide a little more specifically to that growth than we have in the past.

當然，蘇。我們的目標是隨著時間的推移持續回購股票並隨著時間的推移增加股票。因此，這只是這一進程的另一步。在業務方面，正如我們所看到的，我想說的是，我們對 24 財年產生現金流的能力的可見度和信心有所提高。這讓我們更確定能夠比過去更具體地指導這種成長。

As Mike said earlier, a year ago, we were concerned about our production capacity and how quickly we could actually deliver homes. We have more certainty around that today. And so with that, that gives us more visibility around our cash flow. And so repurchases, dividends, distributions to shareholders are an important part of our capital allocation. And so as we're guiding to $3 billion of homebuilding cash flow with $1.5 billion of that going to share repurchase, another $400 million going to dividends, that's obviously a very important part of our capital allocation.

正如麥克早些時候所說，一年前，我們擔心我們的生產能力以及我們實際交付房屋的速度。今天我們對此有了更多的確定性。這樣一來，我們就可以更清楚地了解現金流。因此，回購、股利、股東分配是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。因此，當我們引導 30 億美元的住宅建設現金流，其中 15 億美元用於股票回購，另外 4 億美元用於股息時，這顯然是我們資本配置的一個非常重要的部分。

Your next question is coming from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

你們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I wanted to just follow up on the comments on the lot cost outlook, up 11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. Is there something that's driving that higher near term? Or is that sort of the run rate we should be expecting as we go into fiscal 2024?

我想跟進對批量成本前景的評論，第四季度同比增長 11%。短期內是否有什麼因素推動股價走高？或者說，當我們進入 2024 財年時，我們應該期待這種運行率嗎？

That is our current run rate. It has been inflecting a bit higher. It reflects several things. Obviously, land prices over time over a number of years have increased incrementally. But we've also seen significant inflation in development costs and all that includes in that, whether it's the infrastructure costs themselves along with costs from government permits and regulations and requirements there as well as lengthening the time of development. The development time lines have lengthened dramatically, which then adds to, obviously, the costs associated with it.

這是我們目前的運行率。它已經彎曲了一點。它反映了幾件事。顯然，土地價格多年來一直在逐步上漲。但我們也看到開發成本大幅上漲，其中包括基礎設施成本本身、政府許可、法規和要求的成本以及開發時間的延長。開發時間大大延長，這顯然增加了與之相關的成本。

So there has been pretty strong inflation across really all of our markets on lots getting developed. And there's still a shortage of lots out there in the market for builders as well. And so that is our current run rate, whether that's going to accelerate further or whether we might see some moderation over time. I don't think we have visibility to that, but we do still expect to see probably stronger lot cost inflation than our other inflation in our stick and brick costs as we go into '24.

因此，我們所有市場上正在開發的地塊都出現了相當強勁的通貨膨脹。對於建築商來說，市場上仍然缺乏地塊。這就是我們目前的運行速度，是否會進一步加速，或者隨著時間的推移我們是否會看到一些放緩。我不認為我們能看到這一點，但我們仍然預計，當我們進入 24 年時，我們的棒和磚成本的批量成本通膨可能會比我們的其他通膨更強勁。

That's helpful. And then just on the rental outlook, I mean there are some signs that rents are coming down. And as you mentioned earlier, cost of capital is higher. How do you think about incremental investments in rental at this -- in this current rate environment? Is there a level of rates where you pull back? And if demand is weaker, like how do you handle the -- what you've invested there? Like would you sell that at retail or just continue to (inaudible) out, just how could you handle that in different rate environments?

這很有幫助。然後就租金前景而​​言，我的意思是有一些跡象表明租金正在下降。正如您之前提到的，資金成本更高。在目前的利率環境下，您如何看待租金增量投資？您是否會下調某個利率水準？如果需求疲軟，例如你如何處理你在那裡的投資？就像您會以零售方式出售還是繼續（聽不清楚）出售，在不同的利率環境下您如何處理？

Yes, we are watching it closely, and we continue to be in the market with stabilized assets. And we just like -- as we sell homes, we watch the market closely, look at what demand is and what that pricing is. We don't intend to continue to hang on to stuff and significantly increase our balance sheet. So why we're indicating that we may see some choppiness in margins as we flow through this market. But we still feel good about the demand that's out there. We feel good about our position and the platform and intend to continue to grow the platform and be positioned to do so, but we'll watch it closely in the coming quarters and adjust accordingly.

是的，我們正在密切關注，我們繼續以穩定的資產進入市場。當我們出售房屋時，我們會密切關注市場，以了解需求和定價。我們不打算繼續持有東西並大幅增加我們的資產負債表。那麼為什麼我們要指出，當我們進入這個市場時，我們可能會看到利潤率出現一些波動。但我們仍然對那裡的需求感到滿意。我們對我們的地位和平台感到滿意，並打算繼續發展平台並做好準備，但我們將在未來幾季密切關注並做出相應調整。

The strategic value of the platform for us to be a very good multifamily developer is significant as a land user. Being a residential developer, we've done that for a long time. And now going into the multifamily development side, we become a better buyer of land parcels and a better partner for land sellers. And so strategically, it's a business we're going to stay in. We're going to continue to scale that business, but we will be opportunistic and responsive to market conditions with what we do.

對於我們成為優秀的多戶住宅開發商而言，該平台的戰略價值對於土地使用者而言意義重大。作為住宅開發商，我們這樣做已經很久了。現在進入多戶住宅開發方面，我們成為更好的地塊買家和土地賣家更好的合作夥伴。因此，從策略上講，這是我們將繼續從事的業務。我們將繼續擴大該業務的規模，但我們將抓住機會，根據我們所做的事情對市場狀況做出反應。

Your next question is coming from Jade Rahmani from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Jade Rahmani。

Not sure if this was stated earlier, but could you get the percentage of your buyers that are taking some kind of mortgage buy down or interest rate incentive? And secondly, what percentage are taking the full term buy down?

不確定之前是否已說明這一點，但您能否了解接受某種抵押貸款購買或利率激勵的買家的百分比？其次，全期購買的百分比是多少？

Yes. It's about 60% of our buyers are utilizing some type of rate buy-down and a fair chunk of those. I don't have specific numbers, almost all our permanent 30-year buy-down.

是的。我們大約 60% 的買家正在利用某種類型的利率下調，其中很大一部分是這樣的。我沒有具體數字，幾乎所有我們30年期的永久買入。

On the rental business, could you talk to a rough ballpark of exit cap rates that -- or acquisition cap rates that the purchases of your development assets are looking to achieve?

在租賃業務方面，您能否談談退出上限利率的大致情況，或購買開發資產希望達到的收購上限利率？

Sort of be across the board, it's going to vary significantly by market and what the interest rate environment was at the time we made the acquisition. So it's hard to pin it down to any 1 cap rate or even a relevant range. Because like with many expectations over the life of the project, from cost and rental side, there's a lot of actuals prove different than the assumptions we made that come out. And so fortunately, we've been able to see some really strong execution by the teams and picking good projects and executing well on those projects, and that's shown up in the results.

有點全面，它會因市場以及我們收購時的利率環境而有很大差異。因此很難將其確定為任何 1 上限利率，甚至是相關範圍。因為就像對專案生命週期的許多期望一樣，從成本和租金方面來看，有許多實際情況與我們所做的假設不同。幸運的是，我們能夠看到團隊的一些非常強大的執行力，選擇好的專案並在這些專案上執行得很好，這在結果中得到了體現。

And we're just going to try to keep working in that direction. But it's hard for me to give you a number of what a ballpark cap rate was at the time we did a pro forma on a deal and when we decided to go forward with it.

我們將繼續朝這個方向努力。但我很難告訴你在我們對交易進行預估時以及當我們決定繼續進行交易時的大概上限利率是多少。

And we have been very conservative in our underwriting and expectations for our single-family rental business and making sure that we feel good about it as a for-sale position as well as a for rent, and underwriting it to the lowest of those guidelines for our operators so that we aren't stretching on cap rates that are all driven potentially by interest environment.

我們對單戶租賃業務的承保和期望非常保守，並確保我們對它作為出售和出租的位置感到滿意，並按照這些指導方針中的最低標準進行承保。我們的運營商，這樣我們就不會過度追求可能由利率環境驅動的上限利率。

And our final question this morning is coming from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

今天早上我們的最後一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的 Mike Dahl。

Congrats, Paul, congrats, David. I wanted to ask a follow-up about margin, and I appreciate you're not giving full guidance and you're thinking about returns, not margins, but some of the qualitative comments around expectations for maybe a little bit of downward pressure on price, obviously, some potential just mix, outright price pressure than the added incentives, the lot costs. It sounds like you're bracing for further margin declines beyond 1Q. Is that fair? Or is it -- is there any order of magnitude that you can help us with on some of the other moving pieces that you're contemplating around margins beyond 1Q?

恭喜保羅，恭喜大衛。我想詢問有關利潤率的後續問題，我很感激您沒有提供全面的指導，您考慮的是回報，而不是利潤率，而是一些圍繞價格可能會出現一點下行壓力的預期的定性評論顯然，一些潛在的只是混合，直接的價格壓力比額外的激勵措施大得多。聽起來您正準備迎接第一季之後利潤率的進一步下降。這樣公平嗎？或者是 - 您是否可以在您正在考慮的圍繞第一季度利潤率的其他一些移動項目上為我們提供任何數量級的幫助？

Sure. Mike, I probably wouldn't use the word bracing for. I mean we feel like we're in a very strong financial position to weather whatever we find in front of us, whether it's upside or downside. And we're going to do what we always do, which is continue to adjust to market conditions. We're not in a position to give a full year guide. We likely may never do that again because margin really is a function of market conditions, and we're going to meet the market week in and week out.

當然。麥克，我可能不會使用「支撐」這個詞。我的意思是，我們覺得我們的財務狀況非常強勁，可以應對我們面前的任何情況，無論是有利的還是不利的。我們將做我們一直在做的事情，那就是繼續根據市場條件進行調整。我們無法提供全年指南。我們可能永遠不會再這樣做了，因為保證金確實是市場狀況的函數，而且我們將一周又一周地滿足市場需求。

And we haven't seen the spring yet, which is the biggest driver of our full year margin and where we land for the year in terms of gross margins, obviously. So as you alluded to, there are a lot of moving pieces and a lot of that's going to be dependent on what happens in the spring. But if we do find ourselves in a market where we have more downward house price pressure, then we'll also be looking to adjust our cost structure at the same time in a typical downward house price market. We do have the ability to adjust our cost structure, not perfectly real time. But we're not going to sit there in a vacuum and just reduce home prices and not adjust the other components that go into our business.

我們還沒有看到春天，這顯然是我們全年利潤率的最大推動力，也是我們今年毛利率的目標。正如您所提到的，有很多變化，其中許多將取決於春季發生的情況。但如果我們確實發現自己處於房價下行壓力較大的市場，那麼我們也會同時尋求在典型的房價下行市場中調整我們的成本結構。我們確實有能力調整我們的成本結構，但不是完全即時的。但我們不會坐在真空中，只是降低房價，而不調整我們業務的其他組成部分。

So we feel very good. Like I said earlier, where we're starting from a 25.1% exit rate in Q4 to weather whatever the year looks like and to continue to maximize returns.

所以我們感覺很好。正如我之前所說，我們將從第四季度 25.1% 的退出率開始，以應對今年的情況並繼續最大化回報。

And Mike, I'm pretty optimistic. We've never been positioned to execute from a product location, lot supply and have gained efficiency through the last 2 or 3 years that I think we'll continue on. So I think '24 is going to be a good year given a lack of some catastrophic event. So it's just -- ultimately, in this business, it's about who can produce houses the most efficient at the lower cost and drive the best returns. And we are -- we have never been positioned as a company to do that better than we are right now.

麥克，我非常樂觀。我們從未定位於從產品位置、批次供應來執行，並且在過去的兩三年中提高了效率，我認為我們將繼續這樣做。所以我認為考慮到沒有發生一些災難性事件，24 年將是美好的一年。因此，歸根結底，在這個行業中，問題在於誰能夠以更低的成本建造最高效的房屋，並帶來最好的回報。我們從來沒有被定位為一家比現在做得更好的公司。

Yes. Yes. No, it's certainly a strong starting point. And then relatedly, just the cash flow strength is also continuing to be unique in this cycle, the $3 billion in cash from homebuilding ops. For the last couple of years, you've had some offsets from the accelerated multifamily or rental operations, some other assets. In the current environment, given what you've already articulated on multifamily, I know you still have a big backlog of under construction, but when we're trying to bridge that cash flow from homebuilding ops down to kind of a true free cash number, anything that we should be thinking about in terms of potential offsets from rentals or other parts of your business? Or do you think the majority of that will actually flow through to free cash?

是的。是的。不，這確實是一個強而有力的起點。與此相關的是，現金流實力在本週期中也持續保持獨特，即來自住宅建設營運的 30 億美元現金。在過去的幾年裡，您已經從加速的多戶型或租賃業務以及其他一些資​​產中獲得了一些抵銷。在當前環境下，考慮到您已經就多戶住宅所闡述的內容，我知道您仍然有大量積壓的在建工程，但是當我們試圖將住宅建築業務的現金流連接到真正的自由現金數字時，就租金或您業務的其他部分的潛在抵銷而言，我們應該考慮什麼？或者你認為其中大部分實際上會流向自由現金？

As we did comment earlier, our pipeline of multifamily deals is growing, and we expect higher deliveries on multifamily. So I do expect our investments on the multifamily side of rental to show an increase in fiscal '24. The single-family side, I think, is uncertain as to whether that will grow or not. It's going to -- we're evaluating that in market conditions and where the rate environment is, as Mike and Paul commented earlier, but do expect some offset on the multifamily side.

正如我們之前評論的那樣，我們的多戶型交易管道正在成長，我們預計多戶型的交付量將會更高。因此，我確實預計我們在多戶住宅租賃方面的投資將在 24 財年出現成長。我認為，單戶家庭方面不確定這一數字是否會成長。正如麥克和保羅早些時候評論的那樣，我們正在評估市場狀況和利率環境，但預計多戶住宅方面會出現一些抵消。

And within the build-to-rent portfolio, we have a lot of optionality at various points in the development phases of those projects. As we start development, as we plan, vertical product, start construction and then decide at the point we're ready with homes, do we go to rent or go to lease, go to rent or go to sale on those so we can respond almost in real time to what the market is and not take a long duration risk on that asset.

在先建後租的投資組合中，我們在這些專案的開發階段的各個階段都有許多選擇。當我們開始開發時，正如我們計劃的那樣，垂直產品，開始建設，然後在我們準備好房屋時決定，我們是去出租還是去租賃，去出租還是去出售這些房屋，以便我們可以做出回應幾乎即時了解市場狀況，不會對該資產承擔長期風險。

Thank you. This does conclude today's Q&A session. I would now like to hand the floor back to Paul Romanowski for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想請保羅·羅曼諾夫斯基發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Tom. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again in January to share our first quarter results. I would like to thank David for his leadership, guidance and support throughout my career. Our company has produced remarkable results during his tenure as CEO, and he has positioned us for continued success.

謝謝你，湯姆。我們感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，並期待在一月份再次與您交談，分享我們第一季的業績。我要感謝大衛在我整個職業生涯中的領導、指導和支持。在他擔任執行長期間，我們公司取得了令人矚目的業績，他使我們能夠持續取得成功。

To the D.R. Horton team, thank you for your incredible efforts in fiscal 2023. We are well positioned heading into the new year, and I look forward to everything we will accomplish together in fiscal 2024.

致 D.R.霍頓團隊，感謝你們在 2023 財年所做的令人難以置信的努力。我們在新的一年裡處於有利位置，我期待著我們在 2024 財年共同完成的一切。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開電話線，度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。