霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations for D.R. Horton.

早上好，歡迎參加 D.R. 2023 年第三季度收益電話會議。霍頓，美國建築商，美國最大的建築商。 （操作員指示）我現在將電話轉給 D.R. 投資者關係副總裁傑西卡·漢森 (Jessica Hansen)。霍頓。

Thank you, Paul. And good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，保羅。早上好。歡迎參加我們的電話會議，討論我們 2023 財年第三季度的業績。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，無法保證實際結果不會出現重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的信息。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期，以及 D.R.霍頓不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q early next week.

有關可能導致績效發生重大變化的因素的更多信息，請參見 D.R. Horton 的 10-K 表格年度報告和 10-Q 表格最新季度報告均已提交給美國證券交易委員會。今天早上的收益發布可以在我們的網站 Investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃下周初提交我們的 10-Q 報告。

After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our President and CEO.

此次電話會議後，我們將在投資者關係網站的新聞和活動下的演示文稿部分發布更新的投資者和補充數據演示文稿，供您參考。現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 David Auld。

Thank you, Jessica. And good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray and Paul Romanowski, our Executive Vice Presidents and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，傑西卡。早上好。我很高興我們的執行副總裁兼聯席首席運營官 Mike Murray 和 Paul Romanowski 也參加了這次電話會議；以及我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bill Wheat。

For the third quarter, the D.R. Horton team delivered solid results, highlighted by earnings of $3.90 per diluted share. Our consolidated pretax income was $1.8 billion on an 11% increase in revenues to $9.7 billion, with a pretax profit margin of 18.3%.

第三季度，D.R. Horton 團隊取得了穩健的業績，其中稀釋後每股收益為 3.90 美元。我們的綜合稅前收入為 18 億美元，收入增長 11%，達到 97 億美元，稅前利潤率為 18.3%。

Our homebuilding return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended June 30 was 31.8%, and our return on equity for the same period was 24.3%. And despite continued high mortgage rates and inflationary pressures, our net sales orders increased 37% from the prior year quarter as the supply of both new home and existing homes at affordable price points is limited and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable.

截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，我們的住宅建築庫存回報率為 31.8%，同期股本回報率為 24.3%。儘管抵押貸款利率和通脹壓力持續居高不下，我們的淨銷售訂單仍比去年同期增長了 37%，因為可負擔價位的新房和現房供應有限，而且支持住房需求的人口結構仍然有利。

We are focused on consolidating market share by supplying more homes to meet homebuyer demand while maximizing the returns and capital efficiency in each of our communities. With improvements in both labor capacity and availability of materials, our cycle times are decreasing, positioning us to release homes for sale earlier in the construction cycle. We are pleased that we were able to increase our homebuilding starts to 22,900 homes this quarter, which was supported by a 6% sequential increase in our active selling communities.

我們致力於通過提供更多房屋來滿足購房者的需求，同時最大限度地提高每個社區的回報和資本效率，從而鞏固市場份額。隨著勞動力能力和材料可用性的提高，我們的周期時間正在縮短，使我們能夠在施工週期的早期釋放房屋進行銷售。我們很高興本季度的住宅開工量增加至 22,900 套，這得益於我們活躍的銷售社區環比增長 6%。

Our homebuilding operating margins are lower than the record high margins we reported last year due to cost inflation and pricing adjustments and incentives we implemented to address homebuyer affordability challenges caused by higher mortgage rates. However, our margins improved sequentially from the March to June quarter as home prices and incentives have stabilized and some reductions in construction costs are now being realized in our homes closed.

由於成本通脹、定價調整以及我們為解決抵押貸款利率上升帶來的購房者負擔能力挑戰而實施的激勵措施，我們的住宅建築營業利潤率低於我們去年報告的創紀錄的高利潤率。然而，隨著房價和激勵措施的穩定，以及我們已關閉房屋的建築成本的一些降低，我們的利潤率從 3 月到 6 月的季度連續有所改善。

We are well positioned with our experienced operators, diverse product offerings, flexible lot supply and strong capital and liquidity positions to produce and sustain consistent returns, growth and cash flow. We will maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of our company, including returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis. Paul?

我們擁有經驗豐富的運營商、多樣化的產品供應、靈活的批次供應以及強大的資本和流動性狀況，能夠產生並維持一致的回報、增長和現金流。我們將保持嚴格的資本投資方式，以提高公司的長期價值，包括通過股息和股票回購持續向股東返還資本。保羅？

Earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2023 decreased 16% to $3.90 per diluted share compared to $4.67 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter decreased 19% to $1.3 billion on consolidated revenues of $9.7 million. Our third quarter home sales revenues were $8.7 billion on 22,985 homes closed compared to $8.3 billion on 21,308 homes closed in the prior year.

2023 財年第三季度攤薄後每股收益下降 16%，至 3.90 美元，而上年同期為 4.67 美元。該季度淨利潤下降 19%，至 13 億美元，綜合收入為 970 萬美元。我們第三季度的房屋銷售收入為 87 億美元，成交了 22,985 套房屋，而去年同期成交的房屋為 21,308 套，收入為 83 億美元。

Our average closing price for the quarter was $378,600, flat sequentially and down 3% from the prior year quarter. Mike?

我們本季度的平均收盤價為 378,600 美元，與上一季度持平，比去年同期下降 3%。麥克風？

Our net sales orders in the third quarter increased 37% to 22,879 homes and order value increased 26% from the prior year to $8.7 million. Our cancellation rate for the quarter was 18%, flat sequentially and down from 24% in the prior year quarter. Our average number of active selling communities was up 6% sequentially and up 8% year-over-year. The average price of net sales orders in the third quarter was $381,100, up 2% sequentially and down 8% from the prior year quarter.

我們第三季度的淨銷售訂單增長了 37%，達到 22,879 套房屋，訂單價值比上年增長 26%，達到 870 萬美元。本季度的取消率為 18%，與上一季度持平，低於去年同期的 24%。我們的活躍銷售社區平均數量環比增長 6%，同比增長 8%。第三季度淨銷售訂單平均價格為 381,100 美元，比上一季度增長 2%，比去年同期下降 8%。

To adjust to changing market conditions and higher mortgage rates over the past year, we increased our use of incentives and reduced the sizes of our homes to provide better affordability to homebuyers. Although home prices and incentives have begun to stabilize, we expect to continue utilizing a higher level of incentives as compared to last year. Our sales volumes can be significantly affected by changes in mortgage rates and other economic factors. However, we will continue to start homes and maintain sufficient inventory to meet sales demand and aggregate market share. Bill?

為了適應不斷變化的市場條件和過去一年更高的抵押貸款利率，我們增加了激勵措施的使用，並縮小了房屋面積，為購房者提供更好的負擔能力。儘管房價和激勵措施已開始穩定，但我們預計將繼續利用比去年更高水平的激勵措施。我們的銷量可能會受到抵押貸款利率和其他經濟因素變化的顯著影響。然而，我們將繼續開工並保持充足的庫存，以滿足銷售需求和總體市場份額。賬單？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the third quarter was 23.3%, up 170 basis points sequentially from the March quarter. The decrease in our gross margin from March to June reflects a decrease in incentive costs and lower stick and brick costs on homes closed during the quarter.

第三季度房屋銷售收入毛利率為 23.3%，比 3 月份季度增長 170 個基點。 3 月至 6 月毛利率的下降反映了激勵成本的下降以及本季度關閉房屋的棍棒和磚塊成本的下降。

On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues and lot costs were both flat sequentially, while stick and brick cost per square foot decreased 4%. As Mike mentioned, we continue to continue -- we expect to continue offering a higher level of incentives as compared to 2022. But due to the recent stabilization in home prices and some reductions in both incentives and construction costs, we expect our homebuilding gross margins to be slightly higher in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Jessica?

按每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入和地塊成本均環比持平，而每平方英尺的木棍和磚塊成本下降了 4%。正如邁克提到的，我們將繼續——我們預計將繼續提供比 2022 年更高水平的激勵措施。但由於近期房價穩定以及激勵措施和建築成本的一些減少，我們預計第四季度的住宅建築毛利率將略高於第三季度。傑西卡？

In the third quarter, our homebuilding in SG&A expenses increased by 6% from last year and homebuilding SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue was 6.7%, up 10 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year. Fiscal year-to-date home building SG&A was 7.2% of revenues, up 30 basis points from the same period last year as we maintained the capacity of our platform to grow market share. Paul?

第三季度，我們的住宅建築 SG&A 費用比去年增長 6%，住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 6.7%，比上年同期增長 10 個基點。財年至今，住宅建築銷售、銷售及管理費用佔收入的 7.2%，比去年同期增長了 30 個基點，因為我們保持了平台擴大市場份額的能力。保羅？

We started 22,900 homes in the June quarter, up 15% from the March quarter. We ended the quarter with 43,800 homes in inventory, down 22% from a year ago and flat sequentially. 25,000 of our homes at June 30 were unsold, of which 5,700 were completed. For homes we closed in the third quarter, our construction cycle time decreased by over a month from the second quarter, reflecting improvements in the supply chain. We expect to see a further decrease in our cycle time for homes closed in the fourth quarter. We will continue to ingest our homes in inventory and starts pace based on market conditions. Mike?

我們在 6 月份季度開工了 22,900 套房屋，比 3 月份季度增長了 15%。本季度末，我們的庫存房屋數量為 43,800 套，比去年同期下降 22%，與上一季度持平。截至 6 月 30 日，我們有 25,000 套房屋未售出，其中 5,700 套已竣工。對於我們在第三季度關閉的房屋，我們的施工週期比第二季度縮短了一個多月，反映出供應鏈的改善。我們預計第四季度關閉房屋的周期時間將進一步縮短。我們將繼續消化我們的房屋庫存，並根據市場狀況開始行動。麥克風？

Our homebuilding lot position at June 30 consisted of approximately 555,000 lots of which 25% were owned and 75% were controlled through purchase contracts. 34% of our total owned lots are finished and 53% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them. Our capital efficient and flexible lot portfolio is a key to our strong competitive position.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的住宅建築地塊頭寸包括約 555,000 塊地塊，其中 25% 是我們擁有的，75% 是通過購買合同控制的。我們擁有的全部地塊中有 34% 已完工，而我們控制的地塊中有 53% 在我們購買時已經或即將完工。我們的資本效率和靈活的批次投資組合是我們保持強大競爭地位的關鍵。

Our third quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $2.2 billion, up 25% from the prior year quarter and 27% sequentially. Our current quarter investments consisted of $1.2 billion for finished lots, $700 million for land development and $290 million for land acquisition. Paul?

我們第三季度在土地、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 22 億美元，比去年同期增長 25%，比上一季度增長 27%。我們當前季度的投資包括 12 億美元的成品地塊投資、7 億美元的土地開發投資和 2.9 億美元的土地收購投資。保羅？

During the quarter, our rental operations generated $162 million of pretax income on $667 million of revenues. From the sale of 1,754 single-family rental homes and 230 multifamily rental units.

本季度，我們的租賃業務收入為 6.67 億美元，稅前收入為 1.62 億美元。出售 1,754 套單戶出租房屋和 230 套多戶出租單位。

Our rental property inventory at June 30 was $3.3 billion, which consisted of $1.9 billion of single-family rental properties and $1.4 billion of multifamily rental properties. Our rental operations are generating significant increases in both revenues and profits this year as our platform expands across more markets.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 33 億美元，其中包括 19 億美元的單戶出租物業和 14 億美元的多戶出租物業。隨著我們的平台擴展到更多市場，我們的租賃業務今年的收入和利潤均大幅增長。

For the fourth quarter, we expect our rental revenues to be greater than our third quarter and our rental profit margin to be lower than our third quarter. Bill?

對於第四季度，我們預計我們的租金收入將高於第三季度，而我們的租金利潤率將低於第三季度。賬單？

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company reported total revenues of $369 million for the third quarter on 3,812 lots sold with pretax income of $62 million. Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at June 30 was 73,000 lots. 57% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $270 million of our finished lots purchased in the third quarter were from Forestar.

我們控股的住宅地塊開發公司 Forestar 報告第三季度總收入為 3.69 億美元，售出 3,812 塊地塊，稅前收入為 6200 萬美元。截至6月30日，Forestar擁有和控制的手數為73,000手。 Forestar 57% 的自有土地與 D.R. 簽訂了合同，或者享有優先報價權。霍頓。我們在第三季度購買的價值 2.7 億美元的成品地塊來自 Forestar。

Forestar is separately capitalized from D.R. Horton and had more than $780 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 19.1%. Forestar is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the shortage of finished lots in the homebuilding industry and to aggregate significant market share over the next few years with its strong balance sheet, lot supply and relationship with D.R. Horton. Mike?

Forestar 的資本與 D.R. 是分開的。截至季度末，Horton 的流動資金超過 7.8 億美元，淨債務與資本比率為 19.1%。 Forestar 擁有獨特的優勢，能夠利用住宅建築行業成品地塊的短缺，並憑藉其強大的資產負債表、地塊供應以及與 D.R. 的關係，在未來幾年內積累重要的市場份額。霍頓。麥克風？

Financial Services earned $94 million of pretax income in the third quarter on $229 million of revenues, resulting in a pretax profit margin of 41.2%. During the quarter, 99% of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations, and our mortgage company handled the financing for 74% of our buyers. FHA and VA loans accounted for 51% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with DHI mortgage this quarter had an average FICO Score of 723 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 88%.

金融服務第三季度稅前收入為 9,400 萬美元，營收為 2.29 億美元，稅前利潤率為 41.2%。本季度，我們的抵押貸款公司 99% 的貸款發放與我們的住宅建築業務關閉的房屋有關，並且我們的抵押貸款公司為 74% 的買家處理了融資。 FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司貸款量的 51%。本季度使用 DHI 抵押貸款發放貸款的借款人的平均 FICO 評分為 723，平均貸款價值比為 88%。

First-time homebuyers represented 56% of the closings handled by our mortgage company this quarter, Bill?

比爾？本季度我們的抵押貸款公司處理的成交量中，首次購房者佔 56%。

Our balanced capital approach focuses on being disciplined, flexible and opportunistic to support and to sustain an operating platform that produces consistent returns, growth and cash flow. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet with low leverage and significant liquidity which provides us with flexibility to adjust to changing market conditions.

我們的平衡資本方法側重於紀律嚴明、靈活和機會主義，以支持和維持能夠產生持續回報、增長和現金流的運營平台。我們繼續保持強勁的資產負債表、低杠桿和大量流動性，這為我們提供了適應不斷變化的市場條件的靈活性。

During the first 9 months of the year, our cash provided by homebuilding operations was $2.1 billion, and our consolidated cash provided by operations was $2.3 billion.

今年前 9 個月，我們的住宅建築業務提供的現金為 21 億美元，業務提供的合併現金為 23 億美元。

At June 30, we had $4.6 billion of homebuilding liquidity, consisting of $2.6 billion of unrestricted homebuilding cash and $2 billion of available capacity on our homebuilding revolving credit facility. Homebuilding debt at June 30 totaled $2.7 billion, which includes $400 million of senior notes that we redeemed early in July. Our homebuilding leverage was 11.1% at the end of June, and homebuilding leverage net of cash was 0.7%.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們擁有 46 億美元的住宅建設流動資金，其中包括 26 億美元的非限制性住宅建設現金和 20 億美元的住宅建設循環信貸額度可用能力。截至 6 月 30 日，住宅建築債務總額為 27 億美元，其中包括我們在 7 月初贖回的 4 億美元優先票據。截至 6 月底，我們的房屋建築槓桿率為 11.1%，扣除現金後的房屋建築槓桿率為 0.7%。

Our consolidated leverage at June 30 was 22% and consolidated leverage net of cash was 11.2%. At June 30, our stockholders' equity was $21.7 billion, and book value per share was $64.3, up 23% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended June, our return on equity was 24.3%. During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $85 million and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level as last quarter to be paid in August.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為 22%，扣除現金後的綜合槓桿率為 11.2%。截至6月30日，我們的股東權益為217億美元，每股賬面價值為64.3美元，比去年同期增長23%。截至 6 月的過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率為 24.3%。本季度，我們支付了 8500 萬美元的現金股息，董事會已宣布將於 8 月份支付與上季度相同水平的季度股息。

We repurchased 3.1 million shares of common stock for $343 million during the quarter. For a total of 7.7 million shares repurchased fiscal year-to-date or $764 million. Jessica?

本季度我們以 3.43 億美元的價格回購了 310 萬股普通股。本財年迄今，回購股份總數為 770 萬股，即 7.64 億美元。傑西卡？

As we look forward, we expect current market conditions to continue with uncertainty regarding mortgage rates, the capital markets and general economic conditions that may significantly impact our business. For the full year, we currently expect to close between 82,800 and 83,300 homes in our homebuilding operations and between 6,500 and 7,000 homes and units in our rental operations. We expect our consolidated revenues for fiscal 2023 to be in a range of $34.7 million to $35.1 billion.

展望未來，我們預計當前的市場狀況將繼續存在，抵押貸款利率、資本市場和總體經濟狀況的不確定性可能會對我們的業務產生重大影響。目前，我們預計全年將關閉住宅建築業務中的 82,800 至 83,300 套房屋以及租賃業務中的 6,500 至 7,000 套房屋和單元。我們預計 2023 財年的合併收入將在 3470 萬美元至 351 億美元之間。

We expect to generate greater than $3 billion of cash flow from operations in fiscal 2023, primarily from our homebuilding operations. We also expect our fiscal 2023 share repurchases to be approximately $1.1 billion similar to last year. For the fourth quarter, we currently expect to generate consolidated revenues of $9.7 billion to $10.1 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 22,800 to 23,300 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin in the fourth quarter to be approximately 23.5% to 24% and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues in the fourth quarter to be in the range of 6.7% to 6.8%.

我們預計 2023 財年的運營現金流將超過 30 億美元，主要來自我們的住宅建築業務。我們還預計 2023 財年的股票回購金額約為 11 億美元，與去年類似。目前，我們預計第四季度的綜合收入將達到 97 億美元至 101 億美元，我們的住宅建築業務竣工的房屋數量將在 22,800 至 23,300 套之間。我們預計第四季度房屋銷售毛利率約為 23.5% 至 24%，住宅建築銷售、一般費用佔第四季度收入的百分比將在 6.7% 至 6.8% 範圍內。

We anticipate a financial services pretax profit margin of around 30% to 35% and we expect our income tax rate to be approximately 24.5% in the fourth quarter. We will continue to balance our cash flow utilization priorities among our core homebuilding operations, our rental operations, maintaining conservative homebuilding leverage and strong liquidity, paying an increased dividend and consistently repurchasing shares. David?

我們預計金融服務稅前利潤率約為 30% 至 35%，第四季度所得稅稅率約為 24.5%。我們將繼續平衡我們的核心住宅建設業務、租賃業務之間的現金流利用優先事項，保持保守的住宅建設槓桿和強勁的流動性，支付增加的股息並持續回購股票。大衛？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and diverse product offerings. All of these are key components of our operating platform to sustain our ability to produce consistent returns, growth and cash flow, while continuing to aggregate market share.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡和多樣化的產品。所有這些都是我們運營平台的關鍵組成部分，以維持我們產生持續回報、增長和現金流的能力，同時繼續擴大市場份額。

We will maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of the company, which includes returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis.

我們將保持嚴格的資本投資方式，以提高公司的長期價值，其中包括通過股息和股票回購持續向股東返還資本。

Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton team for your continued focus and hard work. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

感謝整個 D.R.感謝霍頓團隊的持續關注和辛勤工作。我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在將主持提問。

(Operator Instructions) The first question today is coming from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）今天的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Impressive quarter once again. So congratulations on that. I wanted to talk about your construction -- your pace of construction and your goals going forward. You talked about growing your starts this quarter versus last quarter. But when we just look back maybe a year, 1.5 years ago, there were a couple of quarters where you started even more, you started about 25,000 units a quarter.

再次令人印象深刻的季度。所以恭喜你。我想談談你們的建設——你們的建設步伐和你們未來的目標。您談到了本季度與上季度相比有所增長。但當我們回顧一年、1.5 年前時，有幾個季度的產量甚至更多，每個季度大約有 25,000 個單位。

I wanted to get a sense from you as to whether or not you feel like that's a level that you could achieve in the near term? And if not, why not? And then also, if you could talk about whether seasonality is going to be a factor we should be thinking about with respect to your starts cadence?

我想了解一下您是否認為這是您短期內可以達到的水平？如果沒有，為什麼不呢？另外，您是否可以談談季節性是否會成為我們應該考慮您的啟動節奏的一個因素？

Yes, Stephen. We have seen, as we talked about a 30-day reduction in our cycle time and you can see consistency and improvement as we travel throughout our divisions and seeing pretty good balance with our trades and all the supplies that we need to continue with improvement in cycle time. If you look at our starts pace, it did tick up some and stayed pretty consistent with our closings, which is a cadence that we expect to see as we look towards the fourth quarter based on our sales pace and the strength of the market and where we have the lots and the ability to push that up a little bit, we will.

是的，斯蒂芬。正如我們所討論的，我們已經看到，我們的周期時間縮短了 30 天，當我們在各個部門進行巡查時，您可以看到一致性和改進，並看到我們的交易和所有供應品之間取得了很好的平衡，我們需要繼續改善週期時間。如果你看看我們的開工速度，它確實有所上升，並且與我們的關閉速度保持相當一致，這是我們預計會看到的節奏，因為我們根據我們的銷售速度和市場實力展望第四季度，並且我們有足夠的資金和能力將其稍微推高一點，我們會的。

But not looking to outpace the market and continue to keep in that cadence and position ourselves for continued growth.

但我們並不希望超越市場，而是繼續保持這種節奏，為持續增長做好準備。

Okay. So it sounds like I didn't really get a sense for whether 25,000 is a significant figure in your mind? And why is that a level that we couldn't achieve or revisit simply because it wasn't that long ago where you actually did that for, like I said, 2 quarters in a row. Then also, if I could tack on a second question about your rental platform. You did give some guidance regarding revs being higher, but margins being lower relative to -- in 4Q relative to 3Q.

好的。看來我不太明白 25,000 在你心目中是否是一個重要的數字？為什麼我們無法達到或重新審視這個水平，僅僅是因為不久前你實際上連續兩個季度做到了這一點。另外，我能否再問一下有關您的租賃平台的第二個問題。您確實給出了一些有關第四季度轉速高於第三季度的指導，但利潤率較低。

But could you talk about your plans for rental inventory in dollars carried on the balance sheet. Where should we be thinking you're going to take that level of investment, which I think is $3.3 billion, if I'm not mistaken, right now. Is that going to grow meaningfully as we look into 2024 and beyond? Or is that a level that you feel comfortable with maybe even begin to harvest some of that?

但您能談談您在資產負債表上以美元計價的租賃庫存計劃嗎？如果我沒記錯的話，我們現在應該考慮在哪裡進行這樣的投資，我認為是 33 億美元。展望 2024 年及以後，這一數字是否會有意義地增長？或者你覺得這個水平很舒服，甚至可能開始收穫一些？

Steve, as to the 25,000 starts per quarter, we are very focused on increasing -- incrementally increasing starts quarter to quarter to quarter. And we believe that as we continue this process, we will consolidate the labor availability, capacity and with labor and material consolidation, our ability to program out our starts and then continue to build the houses and gain efficiency in that process.

Steve，至於每季度 25,000 次啟動，我們非常注重增加——逐季增量增加啟動。我們相信，當我們繼續這一過程時，我們將鞏固勞動力的可用性、能力，並通過勞動力和材料的整合，我們有能力規劃我們的開始，然後繼續建造房屋並在此過程中提高效率。

It's just -- it's an ongoing effort. So do we have a target out there of -- we got to get to this number? No. Our target is market-by-market, flag-by-flag, how do we consolidate these markets and increase our market share. And just by the nature of doing that, we're going to get bigger and bigger and bigger. And I'll let Mike reply to the rental question.

這只是——這是一項持續的努力。那麼我們是否有一個目標——我們必須達到這個數字？不。我們的目標是逐個市場、逐個國旗，我們如何鞏固這些市場並增加我們的市場份額。就本質而言，我們會變得越來越大。我會讓邁克回答租賃問題。

Stephen. So we expect that the margin on the fourth quarter closings and the rental segment will probably have a lower profit margin, largely on the basis of mix of projects that are delivering between Q3 and then into Q4. A lot of it's on a cost basis difference between those homes that were built at different times and when they're delivering.

史蒂芬.因此，我們預計第四季度交割和租賃部門的利潤率可能會較低，這主要是基於第三季度和第四季度之間交付的項目組合。其中很大一部分是由於在不同時間建造和交付的房屋之間的成本差異造成的。

And then in terms of our forward investment level, we're at a total of about $3.3 billion of inventory today. We've seen a significant growth ramp in that over the last 2 years. We do expect to continue to grow that platform and we will see our inventory levels continue to grow over the next couple of years, but we do expect that growth pace to moderate from what it's been in the last 2 years.

然後就我們的遠期投資水平而言，我們目前的庫存總額約為 33 億美元。在過去的兩年裡，我們看到了顯著的增長。我們確實希望繼續發展該平台，並且我們將看到我們的庫存水平在未來幾年繼續增長，但我們確實預計增長速度將比過去兩年有所放緩。

The next question is coming from Joe Ahlersmeyer from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Joe Ahlersmeyer。

Good quarter, guys. I wanted to follow up on the community count. That's up about 9% year-to-date -- calendar year-to-date, that is. And I'm just wondering, is there anything in there that we should consider that's more temporary in nature? I'm not going to straight line that release or anything or that sequential number, but -- should we expect that to go down into the back half? Or are we going to sustain those levels? And then I have a follow-up.

伙計們，好季度。我想跟進社區人數。年初至今，即年初至今，這一數字增長了約 9%。我只是想知道，其中有什麼我們應該考慮的本質上是暫時的嗎？我不會直接列出該版本或任何其他內容或該序列號，但是 - 我們是否應該期望它會下降到後半部分？或者我們會維持這些水平嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure Joe. We've been really focused on our flag count. I mean we clearly have the lot position to open new communities and to grow our community count, whereas the last couple of years has not moved more than a low single-digit percentage. We feel like we're positioned to be closer to the mid-single digits going forward. So not necessarily 9% going forward but around the mid-single digits quarter-to-quarter. There can be some choppiness just determining when we close out of communities and ultimately bring them online. But our lot position is there and our operators are focused on growing their flag count.

當然，喬。我們一直非常關注我們的旗幟數量。我的意思是，我們顯然有能力開設新社區並增加社區數量，而過去幾年的變化幅度僅為個位數百分比。我們覺得未來我們的定位將更接近中個位數。因此，未來不一定是 9%，但每個季度的增長率約為個位數左右。確定我們何時關閉社區並最終將它們上線時，可能會出現一些不穩定的情況。但我們的位置就在那裡，我們的運營商正專注於增加旗幟數量。

Makes sense. And just thinking about the homes and inventory number, that was actually sequentially flattish the last couple of quarters even as you did grow those communities. So is it right to think that maybe this is part of returning to higher levels of inventory unit turnover? Or should we expect that the total homes in inventory will sort of catch up on a lag as you continue to grow starts?

說得通。只要考慮一下房屋和庫存數量，即使您確實擴大了這些社區，過去幾個季度的房屋數量和庫存數量實際上仍然持平。那麼，認為這可能是庫存單位周轉率恢復到更高水平的一部分是否正確？或者我們是否應該預期，隨著開工率的不斷增長，庫存房屋總數將有所滯後？

Very focused on improving our inventory turn as our construction cycle times have improved, that's facilitating that. You look historically, we typically -- when we go into a year with our number of homes in inventory, we've been able to turn that 2x in the following year. The last couple of years has been slower than that. And so we're looking to get back to that more historic inventory turn level as we look to fiscal '24.

隨著我們的施工週期時間的縮短，我們非常注重改善我們的庫存周轉率，這促進了這一點。從歷史上看，我們通常 - 當我們進入一年的庫存房屋數量時，我們已經能夠在下一年將其翻倍。過去幾年的速度比這要慢。因此，在展望 24 財年時，我們希望回到更具歷史意義的庫存周轉水平。

That is going back to the star question. That is a factor on our start pace is making sure that we have the capacity to continue to deliver these houses in a more -- in a faster and more efficient way. So it all flows together so that we can actually deliver more houses with fewer homes and inventory quarter-to-quarter, quarter-to-quarter.

這又回到了明星問題。影響我們啟動速度的一個因素是確保我們有能力繼續以更快、更高效的方式交付這些房屋。因此，所有這些都在一起流動，以便我們實際上可以按季度、按季度、用更少的房屋和庫存交付更多的房屋。

The next question is coming from John Lovallo John from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的約翰·洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo)。

The first one is, it looks like the sequential improvement or the sequential cadence of orders from the second quarter to third quarter was better than normal seasonality by a bit. I mean, I think normal seasonality would suggest down about 5%. It looks like they were down about 1%. As we move into the fourth quarter, how should we sort of think about seasonality, which looks like it's typically down, call it, 15% to 20% on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Is that a reasonable way to think about the fourth quarter or the dynamics getting a little bit better out there where you might be able to do a bit better than that?

第一個是，從第二季度到第三季度的訂單環比改善或環比節奏似乎比正常季節性要好一些。我的意思是，我認為正常的季節性因素會導致下降約 5%。看起來他們下跌了大約1%。當我們進入第四季度時，我們應該如何看待季節性，看起來通常會環比下降 15% 到 20%。這是一個合理的方式來思考第四季度或者動態變得更好一點，你可以做得更好一點嗎？

Thanks, John. I think we are seeing more normal seasonality this year in terms of just demand traffic patterns. And so I think our base expectations would be that orders would show a bit closer to normal seasonality going forward. But to our approach in trying to be as consistent as we can in providing a starts pace and a consistent level of inventory with still a short supply of inventory out there in the existing home market and in the new home market, we are going to make sure we've got enough homes out there to capture whatever demand there may be.

謝謝，約翰。我認為，就需求流量模式而言，今年我們看到了更加正常的季節性。因此，我認為我們的基本預期是訂單將顯示出更接近正常的季節性。但我們的方法是盡可能保持一致的開工速度和穩定的庫存水平，同時現有住宅市場和新房市場的庫存仍然短缺，我們將確保我們有足夠的房屋來滿足可能出現的任何需求。

And so our hope would be over the longer term, we can see a bit more consistency there. But there still is a natural seasonality in an ebb and flow to consumer demand that I think is getting back to a more normal level.

因此，我們希望從長遠來看，我們可以看到更多的一致性。但消費者需求的潮起潮落仍然存在自然的季節性，我認為這種需求正在恢復到更正常的水平。

And I do believe that we're going to have a lot more houses to sell this year given the shortened cycle time and our ability to give people a state certain to close. So we were limited in the number of homes last year. So the comparison this quarter to last quarter, a year ago quarter, is probably going to -- it's going to look better than typical seasonality.

我確實相信，鑑於週期時間的縮短以及我們有能力讓人們確定關閉狀態，今年我們將有更多的房屋出售。所以去年我們的房屋數量有限。因此，本季度與上季度（去年同期）的比較可能會比典型的季節性更好。

That makes sense. Okay. And then maybe just a bigger picture question. If we look at 2019, D.R. Horton delivered 57,000 homes in that ballpark versus the close to 83,000 homes expected this year. Industry-wide single-family starts were pretty similar in 2019 to what's expected today. Obviously, Horton and the public have been gaining share for years, but this is close to 45%, 50% jump since 2019. So I guess the question is, how sustainable are these gains, how important is your build strategy to this performance? And maybe how important is the lack of existing home inventory just to overall homebuilder success today.

這就說得通了。好的。然後也許只是一個更大的問題。如果我們回顧 2019 年，D.R.霍頓在該球場交付了 57,000 套房屋，而今年預計交付的房屋接近 83,000 套。 2019 年全行業單戶住宅開工量與今天的預期非常相似。顯然，霍頓和公眾多年來一直在增加份額，但自 2019 年以來，這一數字已接近 45%、50% 的跳躍。所以我想問題是，這些收益的可持續性如何，您的構建策略對這種表現有多重要？也許現有房屋庫存的缺乏對於當今住宅建築商的整體成功有多重要。

I think yes, yes and yes. We've been focused for years now on simplifying this business and creating a level of consistency that didn't exist in the '80s, '90s or early 2000s and jokingly, I call it, building a real business. And I believe we have and are doing that. And coming out of the downturn, there was tremendous opportunity to consolidate market. But we didn't have the liquidity or balance sheet to do it.

我認為是的，是的，是的。多年來，我們一直致力於簡化這項業務，並創造一種在 80 年代、90 年代或 2000 年代初不存在的一致性水平，我開玩笑地稱之為，建立真正的業務。我相信我們已經並且正在這樣做。走出低迷之後，出現了整合市場的巨大機會。但我們沒有足夠的流動性或資產負債表來做到這一點。

So as we have grown through this last 15, 20 years that were 15 years, I guess. Our goal has been to create a company with a balance sheet and the liquidity to take advantage of any disruptions in the market. And since 2019, it just seems like at least quarterly, you're either coming out of it or going into it, another disruption. So it's the power of the platform. And when we talk a lot about it, I think you're seeing it play out. It's people. It's location product. It's just trying to simplify the business and create affordability to a level nobody else can achieve. And that's going to consolidate these markets.

我想，過去 15 年、20 年就是 15 年，我們已經成長了。我們的目標是創建一家擁有資產負債表和流動性的公司，以利用市場的任何干擾。自 2019 年以來，似乎至少每個季度，你要么走出困境，要么陷入困境，這是另一次顛覆。所以這就是平台的力量。當我們談論很多時，我想你會看到它的結果。是人。這是定位產品。它只是試圖簡化業務並將負擔能力提高到其他人無法達到的水平。這將鞏固這些市場。

The next question is coming from Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Bill, you mentioned stick and brick down 4% per foot, I think, year-on-year. Could you break that out in terms of what materials are helping most obviously, lumber and then labor and the reason I ask is I'm assuming that we're starting to see some leverage from the single-family and multifamily rental platform. Part of the reason you're trying to grow that business is to add scale in your markets to lower overall construction costs. So I'm wondering if that's starting to help there.

比爾，你提到木棍和磚塊每英尺下降 4%，我認為，同比。您能否詳細說明哪些材料最明顯有幫助，木材，然後是勞動力，我問的原因是我假設我們開始看到單戶和多戶租賃平台的一些槓桿作用。您嘗試發展該業務的部分原因是擴大市場規模以降低總體建設成本。所以我想知道這是否開始有所幫助。

Right now, as we look at the components of the home across the materials, it is primarily lumber right now. There's some minor moves in both directions really across the other components of the homes is primarily lumber there. I think we are on the front edge of starting to realize some improvement in labor as the homes that we have been starting over the last quarter or 2 have been at a lower cost than what we had there for a while.

現在，當我們從材料上審視房屋的組成部分時，現在主要是木材。在兩個方向上都有一些小的移動，實際上房屋的其他部分主要是木材。我認為我們正處於開始實現勞動力改善的前沿，因為我們在過去一兩個季度開始建造的房屋的成本比我們一段時間以來的成本要低。

But I think we still expect a bit more improvement there with lumber. And then really, the forward cost structure really depends on what the capacity of the industry is and what all builders are doing. So a bit more improvement there. But as we continue to add scale, which does include our rental platform as well, we definitely have advantages and opportunities to continue to leverage that to drive our cost structure going down, especially relative to the rest of the industry.

但我認為我們仍然期望木材方面有更多的改進。事實上，遠期成本結構實際上取決於行業的能力以及所有建築商正在做什麼。所以還有一點改進。但隨著我們不斷擴大規模（其中也包括我們的租賃平台），我們肯定有優勢和機會繼續利用這一點來推動我們的成本結構下降，特別是相對於行業其他公司而言。

Okay. And then David, the private builders we're talking to have seen sort of you mentioned normal seasonality to a slower market maybe than they had expected start in the summer. I don't know if that's just a particular vagaries of being small and private. Can't harder to do buydowns, more capital constraints to do higher end. But you purchased a private during the quarter, and you've got presence in a lot of markets where the smaller privates really make up the bulk of your competitors, in some cases, all of them.

好的。然後大衛，我們正在交談的私人建築商看到你提到了正常的季節性因素，市場可能比他們預期的夏季開局要慢。我不知道這是否只是小而私密的特殊變幻莫測。不能更難做買斷，更多的資本限製做高端。但您在本季度購買了私人公司，並且您已經進入了許多市場，在這些市場中，較小的私人公司確實構成了您的競爭對手的大部分，在某些情況下，是所有競爭對手。

Has there been much movement in terms of interest willingness or need to sell among the privates right now just given what they're facing relative to what the publics have advantage-wise.

考慮到私人所面臨的情況相對於公眾所擁有的優勢，現在私人的興趣意願或出售需求是否有很大變化？

Carl, we talk about it a lot. It seems like in the last couple of years, but it is really hard to put a lot on the ground. It is really hard to build houses. And these private guys, now they've got to struggle with capital from either private or banks increasing on cost. So do we have the opportunity to talk to a lot of these guys? Yes, we do. But it's going to take unique opportunities for us to invite them into the family because we do have a special culture here, and we're not going to screw it up trying to force a square peg in a round hole.

卡爾，我們談論了很多。看起來好像是最近幾年的事，但真正落地還是很難的。建房子確實很難。而這些私人人士，現在必須與私人或銀行資本成本的增加作鬥爭。那麼我們有機會與這些人中的很多人交談嗎？是的，我們願意。但我們需要獨特的機會來邀請他們加入我們的家庭，因為我們這裡確實有一種特殊的文化，我們不會試圖將方釘強行插入圓孔而搞砸。

Excited about the most recent (inaudible) in terms of already and having been one of our largest lot developers in our Gulf Coast region. And so we picked up Truland's homebuilding operations, but Nathan Cox and his team will continue to be a key component in terms of developing lots to us and -- for us in the Gulf Coast.

對於最近（聽不清）的興奮，我們已經成為我們墨西哥灣沿岸地區最大的地塊開發商之一。因此，我們接手了 Truland 的住宅建築業務，但內森·考克斯 (Nathan Cox) 和他的團隊將繼續成為我們以及墨西哥灣沿岸土地開發的關鍵組成部分。

And I will say, I've had a personal relationship with Nathan Cox for 15-plus years, and he is an example of somebody that absolutely mirrors our culture. He's a super quality guy, he has built a good company. And somebody we're going to be in business with for a long, long time.

我想說的是，我與內森·考克斯 (Nathan Cox) 的私人關係已經超過 15 年，他是一個絕對反映我們文化的典範。他是一個非常優秀的人，他建立了一家優秀的公司。還有一個我們將與之長期合作的人。

The next question is coming from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的邁克·雷豪特。

Great. Appreciate it. Wanted to circle back to an earlier answer that you gave around -- thoughts around your 4Q demand and order trends. Last month, you had Lennar talk about their third quarter orders being a little bit above 2Q and KB talking about normal seasonality being muted in the third -- in their third quarter, all based on not only strong demand but also kind of filling a void for the lack of supply that's out there and the strong demand that new homebuilders can provide as a result.

偉大的。欣賞它。想回到您之前給出的答案——關於第四季度需求和訂單趨勢的想法。上個月，Lennar 談到了他們第三季度的訂單略高於第二季度，而 KB 則談到了第三季度正常的季節性因素，這一切不僅基於強勁的需求，而且還填補了現有供應不足的空白，以及新住宅建築商因此可以提供的強勁需求。

So just going back to your comments, I think, Bill, you kind of said perhaps normal seasonality, David, I think I heard you say perhaps better than normal seasonality. I was hoping to kind of get a finer-tuned answer there in terms of what you think your capacity is to meet demand? Again, is there an ability to take orders that is similar to your third quarter level if you see the demand there? And I would assume you'd be just as interested in taking as much share as you can or going back to an earlier question as well, is there any type of production constraints that might hold you back there a little bit?

回到你的評論，我想，比爾，你說也許是正常的季節性，大衛，我想我聽到你說也許比正常的季節性更好。我希望在那裡得到一個更精細的答案，即您認為您有能力滿足需求嗎？同樣，如果您看到那裡的需求，是否有能力接受與第三季度水平相似的訂單？我想你也會有興趣獲得盡可能多的份額，或者回到之前的問題，是否有任何類型的生產限制可能會阻礙你一點點？

Sure, Mike. So I mean, we're not in this for quarterly results. We're in this for the long term and to build as much shareholder value as we can over the long term. So quarter to quarter to quarter, as you've heard David say over and over, we're focused on being consistent. And as we talked about, it's all tied to our start pace. So we're not managing to a sales number in Q4. If the market is there and our cycle times continue to improve, we might be able to see a little bit better than normal seasonality. If the market were to weaken for some reason or we don't get as many homes started, ultimately, it could be less than normal seasonality.

當然，邁克。所以我的意思是，我們不是為了季度業績。我們著眼於長期發展，並在長期內為股東創造盡可能多的價值。因此，正如您一遍又一遍地聽到大衛所說，每個季度到另一個季度，我們都專注於保持一致性。正如我們所說，這一切都與我們的起始速度有關。因此，我們無法在第四季度實現銷售數字。如果市場存在並且我們的周期時間繼續改善，我們可能會看到比正常季節性更好一點的情況。如果市場由於某種原因走弱，或者我們沒有開工那麼多的房屋，最終，它可能會低於正常的季節性。

Right now, we feel like we're positioned to increase our start slightly from where we were in Q3 and also, as we've talked about, our construction cycle times have continued to improve, and our flag count has grown. So we feel like we're very well positioned. But frankly, we're more focused on positioning for '24 at this point than we are worried about Q4. I mean we're going to finish out the year very strong and generate strong returns and continue to add to book value and position ourselves to go do the same in 2024.

現在，我們覺得我們的開局時間比第三季度略有增加，而且正如我們所說，我們的施工週期時間持續改善，我們的旗幟數量也有所增加。所以我們覺得我們處於非常有利的位置。但坦率地說，我們目前更關注 24 年的定位，而不是擔心第四季度。我的意思是，我們將非常強勁地結束這一年，產生強勁的回報，並繼續增加賬面價值，並準備在 2024 年做同樣的事情。

Okay. I appreciate that. I guess maybe then turning to '24. When you look at your backlog conversion at the beginning of the year, relative to what you deliver. At best, you kind of hit a 4x maybe low 4x turnover. In other words, your backlog turned over 4x in terms of the amount of closings we were able to achieve. The height was in 2020 at 4.8. It looks like on a rough basis, you'd probably be closer to 5x or above maybe even 6x given where potentially your backlog could be at the end of this fiscal year.

好的。我很感激。我想也許會轉向'24。當您查看年初的積壓訂單轉化情況時，相對於您交付的內容。最好的情況下，你的營業額可能會達到 4 倍，甚至可能較低。換句話說，就我們能夠實現的結案數量而言，您的積壓訂單周轉量是原來的 4 倍。 2020 年的高度為 4.8。粗略看來，考慮到本財年末您的積壓情況，您可能會接近 5 倍或以上，甚至 6 倍。

So given the fact that you're looking for community count growth, is it still reasonable to expect kind of a high single or even low double-digit closings growth number for next year? Or again, just given the physical constraints of turnover and other -- the fact that cycle times are improving, but not back to where they were, any other items to consider?

因此，考慮到您正在尋找社區數量增長的事實，預計明年的成交量增長會出現較高的個位數甚至較低的兩位數增長是否仍然合理？或者，考慮到營業額和其他方面的物理限制——週期時間正在改善，但還沒有回到原來的水平，還有其他需要考慮的事項嗎？

Sure, Mike. As we're looking to fiscal '24, we talked about this before. We always try to position ourselves with our lot position, with our homes and inventory so that we're in a position to deliver close to a double-digit growth, high single, 10% type growth. And so that's what we're doing again, is positioning our inventory so that we're in a position there in the market that we see today.

當然，邁克。當我們展望 24 財年時，我們之前討論過這一點。我們總是試圖根據我們的地段、房屋和庫存來定位自己，以便我們能夠實現接近兩位數的增長、高單次增長、10% 的增長。這就是我們再次要做的，就是定位我們的庫存，以便我們在今天看到的市場中處於有利地位。

I think it's there for us if we can get our lot positions and our homes and inventory ready for that. And with improved cycle times, that helps us improve our inventory turnover. And I think we focus a lot more on our inventory turn, our inventory conversion than we do backlog. Backlog is just really just a factor of when we choose to sign a sales contract on a home. We focus on our start pace, what homes we have in inventory and then we adjust when we're going to release those for sale based on when we have confidence that we can deliver that home.

我認為，如果我們能夠為此準備好我們的地段、房屋和庫存，那麼我們就可以做到這一點。隨著周期時間的縮短，這有助於我們提高庫存周轉率。我認為我們更關注庫存周轉、庫存轉換而不是積壓訂單。待辦事項實際上只是我們選擇簽署房屋銷售合同的一個因素。我們專注於我們的啟動速度，我們有哪些庫存房屋，然後根據我們有信心能夠交付該房屋的時間來調整何時釋放這些房屋。

So every home we start, we will close. And if we're turning those faster, then that will improve the inventory turnover and honestly improves your visibility to see what our closings are going to be as well. So it's really about our start pace, our inventory positioning and then how efficiently can we turn that.

所以我們開始的每一個家，我們都會關閉。如果我們的周轉速度更快，那麼這將提高庫存周轉率，並誠實地提高您的可見性，以了解我們的結賬情況。因此，這實際上關係到我們的啟動速度、庫存定位以及我們如何有效地扭轉這一局面。

And as a reminder, we sell and close generally 35% to 40% of our homes intra-quarter so you never see those in our backlog that we're reporting at a quarter end anyway, which is why Bill is alluding to home starts and our homes and inventory being a better driver and an indicator of what we're going to close in a forward period.

提醒一下，我們通常會在季度內出售並關閉 35% 至 40% 的房屋，因此您永遠不會在季度末報告的積壓訂單中看到這些房屋，這就是為什麼比爾暗示房屋開工以及我們的房屋和庫存是更好的驅動因素，也是我們將在未來一段時間內關閉的指標。

The next question is coming from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬修·博利。

I wanted to ask about lot costs. I think you said lots on a per square foot basis were actually flat sequentially, which is maybe a little surprising given the shortage of lots out there, as you alluded to. Could you speak to a little around what's implied near term in your margin guidance around lot costs? And then just sort of more broadly, how are you thinking about managing inflation and lots going forward?

我想問一下批量成本。我認為你說每平方英尺的地塊實際上連續持平，考慮到正如你提到的那樣，考慮到地塊的短缺，這可能有點令人驚訝。您能否談談近期關於批量成本的利潤指引中隱含的內容？然後更廣泛地說，您如何考慮管理通貨膨脹和未來的發展？

What we're seeing today in the closings are lots that were contracted and acquired quite some time ago in coming through. So we're not seeing a lot of cost pressure coming through. Going forward, along with the lot scarcity, we're expecting to see a lot costs coming through in forward margins at a higher level.

我們今天在成交中看到的是很久以前簽訂合同和收購的地塊。因此，我們沒有看到很大的成本壓力。展望未來，隨著批次稀缺，我們預計遠期利潤率將出現更高水平的大量成本。

There has certainly been inflation in land and lot development costs and in finished lot prices. So we expect to see that, but that's factored into our guidance and the way we're planning for the business next year.

土地和地塊開發成本以及成品地塊價格肯定存在通貨膨脹。因此，我們希望看到這一點，但這已納入我們的指導以及我們明年的業務規劃方式中。

Okay. Got it. And then secondly, just on the topic of mortgage rate buydowns. I'm curious if you can kind of educate us a little around how that dynamic may change depending where prevailing mortgage rates go. So if we were to see a rise in mortgage rates from here, for example, what level or what ability do you have to -- what's kind of the maximum level of rate buydown, I guess you could do? And conversely, if rates were to come down, would you continue to buy down rates by the same amount?

好的。知道了。其次，關於抵押貸款利率下調的話題。我很好奇您能否告訴我們，根據現行抵押貸款利率的變化，這種動態會如何變化。因此，如果我們從這裡看到抵押貸款利率上升，例如，您必須達到什麼水平或什麼能力——我想您可以做的最大利率購買水平是多少？相反，如果利率下降，您會繼續以相同的金額購買下降的利率嗎？

Or would you actually reduce kind of the size of your mortgage rate buydowns. Just curious around how all that may play out.

或者你真的會減少抵押貸款利率購買的規模嗎？只是好奇這一切會如何發展。

Yes. The rate buydown for us has been an effective incentive and to help us provide as we've improved our cycle time as well, a certainty of close date and a certainty of home payment. And we have stayed roughly a point below the market, and we'll have to measure that as we move forward, depending on where rates move, whether that be up or down. But we have found it to be our -- one of our most effective incentives, and we have been consistent in that execution, and we'll continue to explore that as the interest rates move and on a go-forward basis.

是的。利率下調對我們來說是一種有效的激勵，並幫助我們提供，因為我們也改善了周期時間，確定了交割日期和確定了房屋付款。我們的價格仍低於市場大約一個點，隨著我們的前進，我們必鬚根據利率的變化（無論是上升還是下降）來衡量這一點。但我們發現這是我們最有效的激勵措施之一，而且我們在執行方面一直保持一致，隨著利率的變化，我們將繼續探索這一點。

The next question is coming from Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research Company.

下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Eric Bosshard。

The gross margin progress in the quarter was notable and you talked about, I guess, a bit more progress in 4Q. I'm curious if you could help us get a sense of how we should be thinking about the path of gross margins from here? You've done a good job historically outlining ranges. But in the world, which seems like it's stabilizing for you now, how should we think about the range of path of gross margin?

本季度的毛利率進步非常顯著，我猜您談到了第四季度的進步。我很好奇您是否可以幫助我們了解我們應該如何思考毛利率的發展路徑？您在歷史上概述了範圍方面做得很好。但在你看來現在已經趨於穩定的世界裡，我們應該如何思考毛利率的路徑範圍？

Yes, Eric, what we have visibility to is basically what's in our backlog and what's been in our recent sales and then we certainly have visibility to what our recent cost levels have been. So we've been seeing the costs on our more recent starts be lower. So we've got some visibility to what that could produce. So right now, as we look at our recent backlog in sales, we see a sequential modest improvement in margin up to kind of the high 23s to 24 range in Q4.

是的，埃里克，我們所了解的基本上是我們的積壓訂單和最近的銷售情況，然後我們當然可以了解我們最近的成本水平。因此，我們發現最近啟動的成本較低。所以我們對這可能產生的結果有了一定的了解。因此，現在，當我們查看最近的銷售積壓時，我們看到利潤率連續小幅改善，達到第四季度 23 至 24 的高位。

You used the word stabilization. Last quarter, we used that word quite a bit. And so we -- and we're still seeing that. And so I think we are kind of settling into a more stable period here in terms of our costs and demand has been pretty steady as well. So I think we certainly don't see a trajectory and margin forever upward, but the modest improvement into the coming quarter looks like a pretty sustainable level here in the near to medium term.

你用了“穩定”這個詞。上個季度，我們經常使用這個詞。所以我們——而且我們仍然看到這一點。因此，我認為就成本而言，我們正在進入一個更加穩定的時期，需求也相當穩定。因此，我認為我們當然不會看到永遠向上的軌跡和利潤率，但下個季度的適度改善看起來在中短期內是一個相當可持續的水平。

A lot of tailwind from limited inventory supply at affordable price points are helpful to margins. And then interest rates are the biggest risk to margins, significant increases in interest rates will compress our margins.

有限的庫存供應和實惠的價格帶來的許多推動力有助於提高利潤率。然後利率是利潤率的最大風險，利率的大幅上升會壓縮我們的利潤率。

Within this, you mentioned a moment ago, buying rates down a point below market has been a silver bullet or something that's been a catalyst for consumers to go ahead and sign a contract. I'm curious if you're seeing that's just the way it's going to be or if you're seeing consumers becoming more comfortable with the reality in the days of a 3% mortgage or long gone.

在這方面，您剛才提到，將購買價格降低到低於市場水平是一劑靈丹妙藥，或者說是促使消費者繼續簽署合同的催化劑。我很好奇您是否看到事情將會如此，或者您是否看到消費者在 3% 抵押貸款時代或早已過去的時代變得更加適應現實。

I guess what I'm trying to figure out is can you get away with buying down rates less now? Are you seeing consumers a bit less sensitive? Or is this a medium-term reality that we should expect?

我想我想弄清楚的是，你現在可以減少購買降價嗎？您是否發現消費者不太敏感？或者這是我們應該期待的中期現實嗎？

The interest rate buydown is an incentive like many that we use. And we have a lot of different levers that we may pull market by market or community by community based on the needs of the buyers walking in the door. There's certainly been a hot button today because of the meteoric rise in rates and people's adjustment to that as that adjusts, it will just ebb and flow with different incentives, whether that's closing costs or price or included features. It's been a good tool for us today. We will adjust to the market as it comes at us.

與我們使用的許多激勵措施一樣，利率購買也是一種激勵措施。我們有很多不同的槓桿，我們可以根據買家的需求，逐個市場或逐個社區地拉動市場。今天肯定有一個熱門按鈕，因為利率的急劇上升以及人們的調整，隨著利率的調整，它只會隨著不同的激勵措施而起伏不定，無論是結賬成本、價格還是包含的功能。今天它對我們來說是一個很好的工具。我們將根據市場的變化進行調整。

It was still on a majority of the homes we closed in the third quarter, but it was at a lower percentage than it was in Q2 in terms of the number of buyers utilizing that incentive.

我們在第三季度關閉的大部分房屋仍然採用這種激勵措施，但就利用該激勵措施的買家數量而言，其比例低於第二季度。

The next question is coming from Ken Zener from Seaport Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Ken Zener。

Well, 2 questions here. One, I just want to kind of focus on capital and cash flow and the other is going to be about just where we are on kind of the level of business by community versus the past. So your ability to match EPS to cash flow has been improving, I think, $3 billion of cash flow, think about $4 billion in net income. So about 75% obviously, multifamily plays into that. But could you specifically talk to the 53% of option lots that you expect to be finished? What limits this from going higher perhaps?

嗯，這裡有 2 個問題。一是我只想關注資本和現金流，二是我們與過去相比，社區業務水平的情況。因此，你將每股收益與現金流相匹配的能力一直在提高，我認為，30 億美元的現金流，想想 40 億美元的淨利潤。顯然，大約 75% 的情況是多戶家庭參與其中。但您能否具體談談您預計將完成的 53% 的期權批次？也許是什麼限制了其進一步上漲？

And what kind of factors determine whether you're taking down finished or raw land in those auction structures? And just refresh us on what that raw first developed lot cost is so we can understand the inflation inherent in those raw lots.

哪些因素決定了您是在這些拍賣結構中拿下已完工的土地還是未加工的土地？只需讓我們了解一下原始開發批次的成本是多少，這樣我們就可以了解這些原始批次固有的通貨膨脹。

Sure. I'll start, Ken, and then I'm sure Mike or someone is going to chime in on the true ops piece of it. But in terms of the 53% that we said in our scripted remarks of our option lots that we expect to be purchase finished, that's just at a point in time. So that's where we've already determined who's going to develop those lots for us and we know we're going to take them down as a finished lot. That's by no means is a ceiling. We're now closing 60-plus percent of our houses quarter-to-quarter on a lot purchased from a third-party developer. And so we -- in the normal course of business, we'll contract with a land seller as D.R. Horton put the option under contract and then we'll go find a land developer. So the 53% is more before than necessarily a ceiling.

當然。我先開始，肯，然後我確信邁克或其他人會插話其中真正的操作部分。但就我們在我們對期權批次的書面評論中所說的預計將購買完成的 53% 而言，這只是在某個時間點。因此，我們已經確定了誰將為我們開發這些地塊，並且我們知道我們將把它們作為成品地塊進行拆除。這絕不是天花板。現在，我們每季度關閉 60% 以上的房屋，這些房屋是從第三方開發商處購買的。因此，在正常業務過程中，我們將與土地賣家（D.R.）簽訂合同。霍頓將選擇權簽訂了合同，然後我們就去找土地開發商。因此，53% 並不一定是一個上限。

I think you said it very well. We're going to take a piece of dirt and title it and then in that process, look to work with a third-party developer in some cases, to assign that contract to, they'll acquire the land parcels and then they'll complete the lot development and sell us finished lots that will then start constructing homes on over time.

我覺得你說得很好。我們將採取一塊泥土並為其命名，然後在這個過程中，在某些情況下尋求與第三方開發商合作，將合同分配給他們，他們將獲得地塊，然後他們將完成地塊開發並向我們出售成品地塊，然後隨著時間的推移開始建造房屋。

So that 53% expected would go up, but we will choose in some cases, to develop the neighborhood ourselves. In every one of our markets, we have great teams in place that are capable of developing their own lots as well as negotiating to buy finished lots from third-party developers.

所以53%的預期會上升，但在某些情況下我們會選擇自己開發社區。在我們的每一個市場，我們都擁有優秀的團隊，他們能夠開發自己的地塊，也能夠談判從第三方開發商那裡購買成品地塊。

And Ken, to circle back to your initial comment about capital and cash flow and percentage of cash flows relative to our earnings. We are seeing a big improvement in that this year, and that's what we're expecting to see this year, I would tell you that, that big move is being driven primarily by the improvement in our cycle time by our construction cycle times.

肯，回到你最初關於資本和現金流以及現金流相對於我們收益的百分比的評論。今年我們在這方面看到了很大的進步，這就是我們期望今年看到的，我想告訴你，這一重大舉措主要是由我們的施工週期時間的改進推動的。

We don't have as much capital tied up per home in our homes and inventory because we're turning those faster. Definitely, our land shift over many years has been a component of that over time. But this year specifically, it's more about our homes and inventory turnover improving.

我們的房屋和庫存中沒有那麼多的資本佔用每個房屋，因為我們的周轉速度更快。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們多年來的土地轉移一直是其中的一個組成部分。但具體到今年，更多的是我們的房屋和庫存周轉率的改善。

Great. And so I guess, just a follow-up to that, why would you want to develop land as opposed to like other builders or 1 specifically that as of that? And then the other question, which I'm still struggling with when I just try to normalize housing is your start pace or your pace per community is about 4.6% this year. It used to be about 3.6%. Why is that the new normal basically? I mean I don't want to push down sales pace for no reason. But like why are we so far above where we used to be as in the industry. It's not just you guys. If you could explain that.

偉大的。所以我想，只是一個後續行動，為什麼你想要開發土地而不是像其他建築商或特別是那樣？然後另一個問題是，當我試圖使住房正常化時，我仍在努力解決這個問題，即您的起始速度或每個社區的速度今年約為 4.6%。以前大約是3.6%。為什麼這基本上是新常態？我的意思是我不想無緣無故地降低銷售速度。但就像為什麼我們遠遠高於我們在行業中的水平。不只是你們。如果你能解釋一下的話。

Yes. I think on the lot development question, we have talented teams across our platform. And there are instances where important to us in our start pace is we have to have a lot on the ground. And so controlling that process and being good at producing that lot is a talent that we're going to retain, and we have to continue to exercise that in order to do so.

是的。我認為在批次開發問題上，我們的平台上擁有才華橫溢的團隊。在某些情況下，對我們的起步速度來說，重要的是我們必須有很多實際工作。因此，控制流程並擅長生產大量產品是我們要保留的人才，並且我們必須繼續鍛煉這一點才能做到這一點。

And some deals just make more sense for us to develop from a timing perspective and/or structure and/or size. And so we're going to make that decision community by community across the platform. In terms of our absorption per community, I just -- I think that you've seen some larger communities that may be a portion of that impacting sales and positioning of those communities to drive more efficient activity. Both on the construction and sales side.

有些交易對我們從時機和/或結構和/或規模的角度進行開發更有意義。因此，我們將在整個平台上逐個社區做出決定。就我們每個社區的吸收而言，我認為您已經看到了一些較大的社區，這些社區可能會影響這些社區的銷售和定位，以推動更高效的活動。無論是在施工還是銷售方面。

Yes, I'm not sure I've got an answer for you for sure, Ken. If you don't know the answer, I'm sure we don't either in terms of why the industry has improved. The only thing I could come up with is you have seen a shift in this industry to focus more on returns. And as we focused on returns, that really comes down to being more efficient with every asset you have. And so if you can improve your absorption, improve your turns in each community, your returns on capital are improving.

是的，我不確定我是否能確定給你答案，肯。如果您不知道答案，我相信我們也不知道行業為何有所改善。我唯一能想到的是，你已經看到這個行業發生了轉變，更加關注回報。當我們關注回報時，這實際上取決於您擁有的每一項資產的效率。因此，如果你能夠提高你的吸收率，提高你在每個社區的周轉率，你的資本回報率就會提高。

And so perhaps you're seeing a little bit of that come through. And your observation of looking at higher pace, higher absorptions over time across the industry.

所以也許你會看到其中的一點點。以及您對整個行業隨著時間的推移加快步伐、提高吸收率的觀察。

The next question is coming from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital 的 Mike Dahl。

A couple of follow-ups on the rental side. So there was a pretty well-publicized deal between yourselves and a large SFR company within the quarter and the guide, any color you can provide on how much of that deal already closed in 3Q and whether or not the increase in the guide for the year reflects the full closing of that or if there's going to be some carryover into fiscal '24?

租賃方面的一些後續行動。因此，在本季度和指南中，你們與一家大型 SFR 公司之間達成了一項廣為人知的交易，您可以提供任何顏色來說明第三季度已經完成了多少交易，以及今年指南的增長是否反映了該交易的全面結束，或者是否會有一些結轉到 24 財年？

Sure. Our guide on rental does and will continue to just incorporate the homes that we've closed and our leasing pace and when those projects are available to be sold and marketed and so we've sold projects on a one-off basis. But as we continue to scale that business, it's opening up additional interested investors who -- there's institutional money that doesn't necessarily want to buy just one project at a time. They're interested in buying a portfolio of projects. The deal you're talking about was press speculation. We haven't publicly commented on any specifics of that transaction.

當然。我們的租賃指南確實並將繼續只包含我們已經關閉的房屋、我們的租賃速度以及這些項目何時可以出售和營銷，因此我們一次性出售了項目。但隨著我們繼續擴大這一業務，它正在吸引更多感興趣的投資者——機構資金不一定只想一次只購買一個項目。他們有興趣購買項目組合。你所說的交易是媒體猜測。我們尚未公開評論該交易的任何細節。

But when we look at our rental communities, whether we're selling multiple projects to one investor or not, they are all individual real estate transactions. And so we would continue to point to our disclosures on a unit basis in terms of the number of completed homes we have and rental units in terms of what that forward pace to sales looks like, and we'll continue to do sales of individual projects, and I'm sure we'll continue to do packages of the sales going forward.

但當我們審視我們的租賃社區時，無論我們是否向一位投資者出售多個項目，它們都是個人房地產交易。因此，我們將繼續以單位為基礎披露我們擁有的已竣工房屋數量和租賃單位的未來銷售速度，我們將繼續進行單個項目的銷售，我相信我們將繼續進行打包銷售。

Okay. Got it. And I guess a follow-up there. So without the specifics. Given the total units you're now guiding to and the inventory that you've outlined, you will close a significant portion of your existing inventory in 4Q. And so I fully understand that this is a growth part of your business for the next couple of years, but just circling back to a question thing earlier on the call around specifics on '24.

好的。知道了。我想會有後續行動。所以沒有具體細節。考慮到您現在引導的總單位數量和您概述的庫存，您將在第四季度關閉現有庫存的很大一部分。因此，我完全理解這是您未來幾年業務增長的一部分，但只是回到電話會議早些時候圍繞“24”具體細節提出的問題。

Should we be thinking that you've kind of pulled forward the timing of when some of that inventory you might have expected to close in terms of closing in '23 versus '24 so maybe it's a little lower in '24? Or are you really in a position where even with this increased guide, you can keep growing in '24 offset?

我們是否應該認為，您可能將預計在 23 年與 24 年結束時關閉的部分庫存的時間提前，因此在 24 年可能會稍微低一些？或者你真的處於這樣的境地：即使有了這個增加的指導，你仍然可以在'24抵消中保持增長？

We've generally been talking about our rental platform combined. But in our 10-Q, you can see a breakdown, and we do give our unit breakdown separately. So '24 is going to be a pretty big growth year from a multifamily perspective and we're going to continue to scale the single family. But as we scale both sides of the business, it could still be choppy quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year with ultimate overall growth on an annual basis expected.

我們通常談論的是我們的租賃平台。但在我們的 10-Q 中，您可以看到細分，並且我們確實單獨給出了我們的單位細分。因此，從多戶家庭的角度來看，24 年將是一個相當大的增長年，我們將繼續擴大單戶家庭的規模。但隨著我們擴大雙方業務規模，季度環比和年度同比仍可能波動，預計最終會實現年度整體增長。

The next question is coming from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

So very impressive progress on the cycle times and the cost front. I'm guessing what we're seeing now is probably somewhat of a lagged effect of the big pullback in starts the industry saw late last year and the negotiating power you had over the trades at that time and of course, the pullback in lumber.

在周期時間和成本方面取得了非常令人印象深刻的進步。我猜我們現在看到的可能是去年年底行業開工大幅回落以及當時在交易中的談判能力以及木材回落的滯後效應。

You're not the only ones ramping your start pace now. I think we're hearing similar messages from most of your larger competitors. Maybe some of that's at the expense of the smaller private, but I think it's clear the industry start pace is going to be accelerating here for the next handful of quarters at least. So what are your thoughts on the sustainability of the progress you've made on cycle times and costs heading into '24? And more specifically, what are you seeing from your trades? Are they ramping their headcount in anticipation of an accelerating start pace going forward? Are they -- are you seeing more capacity out there that would support this type of growth without cost inflation following?

現在，您並不是唯一加快起步速度的人。我認為我們從大多數較大的競爭對手那裡聽到了類似的信息。也許其中一些是以規模較小的私營企業為代價的，但我認為很明顯，至少在接下來的幾個季度裡，行業的啟動速度將加快。那麼，您對 24 世紀在周期時間和成本方面取得的進展的可持續性有何看法？更具體地說，您從交易中看到了什麼？他們是否會增加員工數量以應對未來加快的啟動速度？您是否看到有更多的產能可以支持這種類型的增長，而不會出現成本通脹？

Yes, something we work on every day, aggregating market share involves aggregating trade base and materials within those communities. And we've been talking about a consistent start base when we've been talking about simplifying the process and making it easier for our trades to get to and from the job with the right materials, with a complete understanding of what they're doing.

是的，我們每天都在努力，聚合市場份額涉及聚合這些社區內的貿易基礎和材料。當我們一直在談論簡化流程並讓我們的行業更容易使用正確的材料上下班並完全了解他們正在做什麼時，我們一直在談論一致的起始基礎。

That is allowing us to aggregate these trades. Our goal, our communication is we want to be the builder they want to work for. And we do a lot of things to try to make their job easier and more profitable without coming in and trying to renegotiate price every quarter. So is it sustainable? Yes. I think that we are going to continue to focus on that. And as time goes on, we'll get better and basically build capacity month-to-month, quarter-to-quarter on a continual basis.

這使我們能夠匯總這些交易。我們的目標、我們的溝通是我們希望成為他們想要為之工作的建設者。我們做了很多事情，試圖讓他們的工作變得更輕鬆、更有利可圖，而不是每個季度都試圖重新協商價格。那麼它可持續嗎？是的。我認為我們將繼續關注這一點。隨著時間的推移，我們會變得更好，基本上會逐月、逐季持續地建設產能。

Got it. Appreciate the thoughts there. Second, Jessica, you mentioned earlier that while you're still offering mortgage rate buydowns on the majority of closings, it did tick a little bit lower quarter-over-quarter. In terms of the share of closings that had those buydowns. I was curious if you -- a, if you had that specific data you could share with us. But b, are you seeing any sensitivity to demand in the communities, maybe where you are dialing back those buy-downs on one hand, the buydowns are probably putting you guys in such a strong competitive advantage versus the resale market.

知道了。欣賞那裡的想法。其次，傑西卡，您之前提到，雖然您仍在大部分成交中提供抵押貸款利率下調，但它確實比上一季度略有下降。就進行這些買入的成交份額而言。我很好奇你是否有可以與我們分享的具體數據。但是，您是否看到社區對需求的敏感性，也許您一方面減少了這些購買，但購買可能使你們相對於轉售市場具有如此強大的競爭優勢。

But on the other hand, with inventory as tight as it is and demand seemingly pretty strong, it would seem like you should have some ability to pull back on those without impacting demand too much. So I'm just curious the interplay between that.

但另一方面，由於庫存緊張且需求似乎相當強勁，您似乎應該有能力在不影響需求太多的情況下減少庫存。所以我只是好奇它們之間的相互作用。

The use of the rate buydowns is about 10% less than it has been as we look over the last few quarters. And that sensitivity is a community by community and buyer by buyer process. We have great sales agents in each of our communities that go through that experience with every buyer that walks in and finding what's important to them is what they do very well.

根據我們過去幾個季度的觀察，利率回購的使用量大約減少了 10%。這種敏感性是一個社區與社區、買家與買家的過程。我們在每個社區都有優秀的銷售代理，他們會與每一位走進來的買家一起經歷這種經歷，並發現對他們來說重要的是他們擅長的事情。

And so we'll continue as we mentioned, to utilize that. And certainly, that reduction shows some stability in rates, although they've moved up, they've remained in a similar range, and I think people getting comfortable with their purchasing power has allowed some of the relief of that use and/or them not being as concerned about it as the thing that is important to them in their purchase.

因此，我們將繼續正如我們提到的那樣，利用它。當然，這種下降表明費率有一定的穩定性，儘管它們有所上升，但仍保持在相似的範圍內，我認為人們對自己的購買力感到滿意，這使得這種使用得到了一定程度的緩解和/或他們不再像在購買時關心對他們來說重要的東西那樣關心它。

The next question is coming from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的杜魯門帕特森。

First, just -- this has been touched on a little bit earlier in the call, but just trying to get a big picture overview of the banking environment and what it means for Horton. Has the banking environment currently negatively impacted your developer partners kind of outside of Forestar, their ability to access capital for future projects for smaller private builders? Are you actually seeing them kind of pull back on spec construction, land deals, et cetera.

首先，這個問題在電話會議的早些時候就已經提到過，但只是試圖全面了解銀行業環境及其對霍頓的意義。目前的銀行環境是否對 Forestar 以外的開發商合作夥伴產生了負面影響，影響了他們為小型私人建築商未來項目獲取資金的能力？你是否真的看到他們在規格建設、土地交易等方面有所縮減？

I think with a lot of the third-party developers we work with, we have a long relationship with them. And in a lot of cases, their banking or financing sources are kind of looking through their developer looking through to the land contract and working with us, and they take great comfort in that. And we've been able to continue to sign up new deals over the past quarter have secured new financing commitments for the third-party developers through the process. Is it as easy as it was or is inexpensive as it was? Certainly not. It is more challenging. I do think that the banking industry is being more selective in who and at what levels they're choosing to support third-party developers. On the private builder side, we've probably seen a little more opportunity to step into some positions and help those builders with some liquidity and opportunities by taking some of their lots or stepping into different positions. So it has been, if anything, a bit accretive to the business, and we're just here to help.

我認為我們與許多合作的第三方開發商都建立了長期的合作關係。在很多情況下，他們的銀行或融資來源會通過開發商查看土地合同並與我們合作，他們對此感到非常安慰。在過去的季度中，我們能夠繼續簽署新交易，並通過這一過程為第三方開發商獲得了新的融資承諾。它是否像以前一樣簡單或便宜？當然不是。這更具挑戰性。我確實認為銀行業在選擇支持第三方開發商的人員和級別方面更加挑剔。在私人建築商方面，我們可能看到了更多的機會進入某些職位，並通過採取一些土地或進入不同的職位來幫助那些建築商提供一些流動性和機會。因此，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是對業務有一定的促進作用，而我們只是為您提供幫助。

Perfect. And then you all have discussed previously about rotating the smaller square footage offerings to combat affordability. Any way you can help us think about -- are you seeing consumers actually prefer these smaller square footage homes over the past 6 months? Or based on the offerings that you have out there are consumers still kind of preferring the larger square footage homes.

完美的。然後，你們之前都討論過如何旋轉較小面積的產品來對抗負擔能力。您可以幫助我們思考一下嗎？在過去 6 個月裡，您是否發現消費者實際上更喜歡這些面積較小的房屋？或者根據現有的產品，消費者仍然更喜歡面積較大的房屋。

They prefer what they can afford. So what we generally see is that buyers continues to want as much square footage as they can get, but they're constrained by what they can afford, which is why we continue to start more and more of our smaller floor plans. We did see a slight tick down on a year-over-year basis again by about 2% in the terms of square footage on our homes closed.

他們更喜歡他們能負擔得起的東西。因此，我們通常看到的是，買家仍然希望獲得盡可能多的平方英尺，但他們受到負擔能力的限制，這就是為什麼我們繼續開始越來越多的較小平面圖。我們確實看到我們關閉的房屋面積同比再次小幅下降約 2%。

It was flat sequentially. So we would expect just continued very gradual moves down in our average square footage today.

依次持平。因此，我們預計今天的平均面積將繼續非常緩慢地下降。

And the next question is coming from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

You mentioned the build cycles have come down 30 days from peak levels, and you expect them to continue in the fourth quarter. Can you just talk about where they are now versus historical levels? And then beyond the fourth quarter, as you look into next year, how should we think about further potential improvement like what that could do for your asset turns?

您提到構建週期已從峰值水平下降了 30 天，並且預計第四季度將持續這種情況。您能談談它們現在的水平與歷史水平的比較嗎？然後，在第四季度之後，當您展望明年時，我們應該如何考慮進一步的潛在改善，例如這對您的資產周轉有何影響？

Yes. We are today down that 30 days puts us at about 5.5 months in our current cycle time, which is still slightly above our historical averages. And so we see a trend towards -- more towards our normalized and consistent cycle times. That's going to depend on labor availability and our ability to continue to aggregate that labor. As you see start pace increase across the country, we could certainly see some pressure on that but feel comfortable in our position and with the trade capacity that we have in labor out in markets.

是的。今天，我們當前的周期時間減少了 30 天，約為 5.5 個月，仍然略高於我們的歷史平均水平。因此，我們看到了一種趨勢——更多地朝著標準化和一致的周期時間發展。這將取決於勞動力的可用性以及我們繼續聚合勞動力的能力。正如你所看到的，全國各地的開工步伐都在加快，我們當然會看到一些壓力，但我們對自己的地位和市場上勞動力的貿易能力感到滿意。

Our build time of that at 5.5 months has come down about a month, and we probably have another month, 1.5 months to go to get back to where we have been historically when we're operating at a more efficient level. And then there's probably another 45 days to 60 days after that, what we call construction completion until we hit the home closing date. So on average, we're looking to get into a 2x or a little better than 2x turn of inventory units, implies a 6 to slightly less than a 6-month start to closing cycle time.

我們的構建時間為 5.5 個月，現在已經減少了大約一個月，而且我們可能還有一個月，即 1.5 個月的時間才能回到歷史上以更高效的水平運營的水平。此後可能還需要 45 天到 60 天，即我們所說的施工完成，直到我們到達房屋交房日期。因此，平均而言，我們希望庫存單位周轉率達到 2 倍或略高於 2 倍，這意味著從開始到結束的周期時間為 6 至略少於 6 個月。

That's helpful. So there's still more opportunity. And then just on the rental profit outlook for the fourth quarter, the guidance is units will be up quite a bit, but you're thinking about rental profits being down, should we think about gross margins there being lower than kind of core homebuilding longer term? Is there any dynamic that's driving that margin kind of cadence short term? Or is this something we should be thinking about it longer term?

這很有幫助。所以還有更多的機會。然後就第四季度的租金利潤前景而言，指導意見是單位數量將大幅上漲，但您正在考慮租金利潤下降，我們是否應該考慮長期毛利率低於核心住宅建築的毛利率？是否有任何動力在短期內推動這種邊際節奏？或者這是我們應該長期考慮的事情嗎？

Yes. It's really a short-term thing, as Mike mentioned earlier, part of it is the mix of the projects that we see coming through and the time in which those homes were constructed was the time when we were seeing higher construction costs as well. So we really see that as a Q4 event. And as we look longer term from a gross margin perspective and really pretax margin perspective, we would expect the rental to still be higher than our homebuilding margins overall, maybe a little bit of an anomaly here in Q4, but not a long-term phenomenon.

是的。正如邁克之前提到的，這確實是一個短期的事情，部分原因是我們看到的項目組合以及這些房屋的建造時間也是我們看到建築成本更高的時間。所以我們確實將其視為第四季度的事件。當我們從毛利率和稅前利潤率的角度來看更長期的情況時，我們預計租金仍將高於我們的整體住宅建築利潤率，這可能在第四季度有點異常，但不是長期現象。

That's all the questions we have time for today. I would now like to hand the call back to David Auld for closing remarks.

這就是我們今天有時間回答的所有問題。現在我想將電話轉回給戴維·奧爾德（David Auld），讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our fourth quarter results in November. And finally, congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton family, on producing a solid third quarter, continue to compete, win every day. Thank you.

謝謝你，保羅。我們感謝大家今天抽出時間參加電話會議，並期待再次與您交談，分享我們 11 月份的第四季度業績。最後，祝賀整個 D.R.霍頓家族在第三節表現出色，繼續競爭，每天都贏。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。