霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 D.R. 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 Horton, America's Builder，美國最大的建築商。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations for D.R. Horton.

我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 投資者關係副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Paul, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the first quarter of fiscal 2023. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

謝謝你，保羅，早上好。歡迎來到我們的電話會議，討論我們 2023 財年第一季度的業績。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管 D.R.霍頓認為任何此類陳述均基於合理假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的信息。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期，以及 D.R.霍頓不承擔任何公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關可能導致性能發生重大變化的因素的其他信息包含在 D.R.霍頓向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格年度報告。

This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q tomorrow. After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our President and CEO.

今天上午的收益發布可以在我們的網站 investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃明天提交 10-Q。此次電話會議後，我們將在“新聞和事件”下的“演示文稿”部分向我們的投資者關係網站發布更新的投資者和補充數據演示文稿，供您參考。現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官大衛奧爾德。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray and Paul Romanowski; our Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Bill Wheat; our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The D.R. Horton team delivered a solid first quarter, highlighted by earnings of $2.76 per diluted share.

謝謝你，傑西卡，早上好。我很高興 Mike Murray 和 Paul Romanowski 也加入了這次電話會議；我們的執行副總裁兼聯席首席運營官；和比爾小麥；我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官。 D.R.霍頓團隊在第一季度取得了穩健的成績，突出表現是每股攤薄收益 2.76 美元。

Our consolidated pretax income was $1.3 billion on a 3% increase in revenue with a pretax profit margin of 17.5%. Our homebuilding return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended December 31 was 39.5%, and our consolidated return on equity for the same period was 31.5%. Beginning in June 2022 and continuing through today, we have seen a moderation in housing demand due to affordability challenges caused by the significant rise in mortgage rates, coupled with high inflation and general economic uncertainty. Despite these pressures, we still closed over 17,000 homes and sold more than 13,000 homes in what is typically the seasonally slowest quarter of the year. We have seen increased sales activity in the first few weeks of January. While higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty may persist for some time to supply of both new and resale homes at affordable price points remains limited, and the demographics supporting housing demand remained favorable.

我們的綜合稅前收入為 13 億美元，收入增長 3%，稅前利潤率為 17.5%。截至 12 月 31 日的過去 12 個月，我們的房屋建築庫存回報率為 39.5%，同期的綜合股本回報率為 31.5%。從 2022 年 6 月開始一直持續到今天，由於抵押貸款利率大幅上升導致的負擔能力挑戰，再加上高通脹和總體經濟不確定性，我們已經看到住房需求放緩。儘管存在這些壓力，我們仍然關閉了 17,000 多套房屋，並在通常是一年中季節性最慢的季度中售出了 13,000 多套房屋。我們在 1 月的前幾週看到銷售活動有所增加。雖然更高的抵押貸款利率和經濟不確定性可能會持續一段時間，但以可承受價格點提供的新房和轉售房仍然有限，支持住房需求的人口統計數據仍然有利。

We are well positioned to navigate the current challenging market conditions with our experienced operators, affordable product offerings, flexible lot supply and great traded supplier relationships. Our strong balance sheet, liquidity and low leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility. We will continue to focus on turning our inventory and managing our product offerings, incentives, home pricing, sales base and inventory levels to meet market, optimize returns, consolidate market share and generate increased cash flow from our homebuilding operations. Mike?

憑藉我們經驗豐富的運營商、價格合理的產品、靈活的批次供應和良好的貿易供應商關係，我們有能力應對當前充滿挑戰的市場條件。我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和低杠桿率為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性。我們將繼續專注於轉變我們的庫存並管理我們的產品供應、激勵措施、房屋定價、銷售基礎和庫存水平，以滿足市場需求、優化回報、鞏固市場份額並從我們的房屋建築業務中產生更多的現金流。麥克風？

Earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2023 decreased 13% to $2.76 per diluted share compared to $3.17 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter decreased 16% and to $958.7 million on a 3% increase in consolidated revenues to $7.3 billion. Our first quarter home sales revenues were $6.7 billion on 17,340 homes closed compared to $6.7 billion on 18,396 homes closed in the prior year. Our average closing price for the quarter was $386,900, up 7% from the prior year quarter and down 4% sequentially. Paul?

與去年同期的每股 3.17 美元相比，2023 財年第一季度的每股攤薄收益下降 13% 至 2.76 美元。本季度淨收入下降 16% 至 9.587 億美元，綜合收入增長 3% 至 73 億美元。我們第一季度關閉的 17,340 套房屋的房屋銷售收入為 67 億美元，而去年關閉的 18,396 套房屋的銷售額為 67 億美元。我們本季度的平均收盤價為 386,900 美元，比去年同期上漲 7%，環比下跌 4%。保羅？

During the quarter, we continued to sell homes later in the construction cycle to better ensure the certainty of the home close date and mortgage rate for our homebuyers with almost no sales occurring prior to start of home construction. Our cancellation rate for the first quarter was 27%, down from 32% sequentially, but still elevated from our typical levels. Our net sales orders in the first quarter decreased 38% to 13,382 homes, and our order value decreased 40% from the prior year to $4.9 million. Our average number of active selling communities increased 4% from the prior year quarter and was down 1% sequentially. The average sales price of net sales orders in the first quarter was $367,900, down 4% from the prior year quarter. We are continuing to offer mortgage interest rate locks and buy downs and other incentives to drive traffic to our communities, and we are reducing home prices where necessary to optimize the returns on our inventory investments.

在本季度，我們繼續在建築週期的後期出售房屋，以更好地確保我們的購房者的房屋交割日期和抵押貸款利率的確定性，在房屋建築開始之前幾乎沒有發生任何銷售。我們第一季度的取消率為 27%，低於上一季度的 32%，但仍高於我們的典型水平。我們第一季度的淨銷售訂單減少 38% 至 13,382 套，我們的訂單價值比上年下降 40% 至 490 萬美元。我們活躍的銷售社區的平均數量比去年同期增加了 4%，環比下降了 1%。第一季度淨銷售訂單的平均銷售價格為 367,900 美元，較上年同期下降 4%。我們將繼續提供抵押貸款利率鎖定和回購以及其他激勵措施來推動我們社區的交通，並且我們在必要時降低房價以優化我們的庫存投資回報。

Our second quarter sales volume will depend on the strength of the spring selling season. and we currently expect significantly higher levels of net sales orders in the second quarter as compared to the first quarter based on historical seasonal trends, current market conditions and our inventory of completed homes available for sale. Bill?

我們第二季度的銷量將取決於春季銷售旺季的強度。根據歷史季節性趨勢、當前市場狀況和我們可供出售的已完工房屋庫存，我們目前預計第二季度的淨銷售訂單水平將明顯高於第一季度。賬單？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the first quarter was 23.9%, down 440 basis points sequentially from the September quarter. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were down 4% sequentially, stick and brick cost per square foot increased 2% and lot costs were flat. The decrease in our gross margin from September to December was in line with our expectations and reflects the increased construction costs we incurred during 2022, along with higher sales incentives and home price reductions. We expect both our average sales price and home sales gross margin to decrease further in our second quarter of fiscal 2023. We are continuing to work with our trade partners and suppliers to reduce our construction costs on new home starts. We are making progress in these efforts, but we do not expect to see much benefit from lower costs on homes closed in fiscal 2023.

我們第一季度房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 23.9%，比 9 月季度連續下降 440 個基點。按每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入環比下降 4%，每平方英尺的木棍和磚塊成本增加 2%，地塊成本持平。我們 9 月至 12 月的毛利率下降符合我們的預期，反映了我們在 2022 年發生的建築成本增加，以及更高的銷售激勵和房價下降。我們預計我們的平均銷售價格和房屋銷售毛利率將在 2023 財年第二季度進一步下降。我們將繼續與我們的貿易夥伴和供應商合作，以降低新房開工的建設成本。我們在這些努力中取得了進展，但我們預計 2023 財年關閉的房屋成本降低不會帶來太大好處。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

In the first quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expenses increased by 6% from last year and homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.8%, up 30 basis points from the same quarter in the prior year. We are controlling our SG&A during this market transition while ensuring our platform adequately supports our business. Paul?

第一季度，我們的房屋建築 SG&A 費用比去年增長 6%，房屋建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 7.8%，比去年同期上升 30 個基點。我們在市場轉型期間控制我們的 SG&A，同時確保我們的平台充分支持我們的業務。保羅？

We slightly increased our home starch from the last quarter to 13,900 homes and ended the quarter with 43,200 homes in inventory, down 21% from a year ago and down 7% sequentially, 27,800 of our homes at December 31 were unsold, of which 7,100 were completed. We are focused on improving our housing inventory turnover with more completed homes now available for sale, we expect our mix of homes sold and closed in the same quarter to increase back toward our normal historical levels. For homes we closed this quarter, our construction cycle time only increased by a few days compared to fourth quarter, which reflects lingering supply chain issues. However, we are seeing some stabilization in cycle times on the homes we have started and we expect our cycle times to improve during fiscal 2023. We will continue to evaluate demand and adjust our homes and inventory and starch pace based on current market conditions. Mike?

與上一季度相比，我們略微增加了房屋數量，達到 13,900 套，本季度末有 43,200 套庫存房屋，比去年同期下降 21%，環比下降 7%，截至 12 月 31 日，我們有 27,800 套房屋未售出，其中 7,100 套已售出完全的。我們專注於改善我們的住房庫存周轉率，現在有更多已完工的房屋可供出售，我們預計我們在同一季度售出和關閉的房屋組合將增加到我們的正常歷史水平。對於我們在本季度關閉的房屋，我們的施工週期與第四季度相比僅增加了幾天，這反映了揮之不去的供應鏈問題。然而，我們看到我們已經開始的房屋的周期時間有所穩定，我們預計我們的周期時間將在 2023 財年有所改善。我們將繼續評估需求並根據當前市場狀況調整我們的房屋和庫存以及澱粉速度。麥克風？

Our homebuilding lot position at December 31 consisted of approximately 551,000 lots of which 25% were owned and 75% were controlled through purchase contracts. Our total homebuilding lot position decreased by 22,000 lots from September to December. 32% of our total owned lots are finished and 53% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them. Our capital efficient and flexible lot portfolio is a key to our strong competitive position. We continually underwrite all of our lot and land purchases based on future expected home prices and costs. We are actively managing our investments in lots, land and development based on current market conditions. During the quarter, our homebuilding segment incurred $4.8 billion of inventory impairments and wrote off $19.4 million of option deposits and due diligence costs related to land and lot purchase contracts. We expect our level of option cost write-offs to remain elevated in fiscal 2023 as we manage our lot portfolio.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的房屋建築地塊頭寸包括大約 551,000 塊地塊，其中 25% 是我們擁有的，75% 是通過購買合同控制的。從 9 月到 12 月，我們的房屋建築地塊總數減少了 22,000 塊。我們擁有的全部地塊中有 32% 已經完工，我們控制的地塊中有 53% 已經或將在我們購買時完成。我們資本高效且靈活的地塊組合是我們強大競爭地位的關鍵。我們不斷地根據未來預期的房價和成本來承保我們所有的地塊和土地購買。我們正在根據當前市場狀況積極管理我們在土地、土地和開發方面的投資。本季度，我們的住宅建築部門產生了 48 億美元的庫存減值，並註銷了 1,940 萬美元的期權存款和與土地和地塊購買合同相關的盡職調查成本。我們預計，在我們管理地段投資組合時，我們的期權成本註銷水平將在 2023 財年保持較高水平。

Our first quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $1.7 billion, down 21% from the prior year quarter and up 16% sequentially. Our current quarter investments consisted of $900 million for finished lots, $690 million for land development and $130 million to acquire land. Bill??

我們第一季度在土地、土地和開發方面的房屋建築投資總計 17 億美元，比去年同期下降 21%，比上一季度增長 16%。我們當前季度的投資包括 9 億美元的完工地塊、6.9 億美元的土地開發和 1.3 億美元的土地收購。賬單？？

Financial services pretax income in the first quarter was $18.2 million on $137 million of revenues with a pretax profit margin of 13.3%. The lower profitability of our financial services business this quarter was primarily due to lower gains on sales of mortgages, increased competitive conditions and a lower volume of interest rate locks by homebuyers during the December quarter. We expect our financial services pretax profit margin for fiscal 2023 to be higher than the first quarter but lower than the full year of fiscal 2022. During the first quarter, 99% of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations, and our mortgage company handled the financing for 77% of our homebuyers. FHA and VA loans accounted for 45% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 722 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 88%. The first-time homebuyers represented 55% of the closings handled by our mortgage company this quarter. Mike?

第一季度金融服務稅前收入為 1820 萬美元，收入為 1.37 億美元，稅前利潤率為 13.3%。本季度我們金融服務業務的盈利能力較低主要是由於抵押貸款銷售收益下降、競爭條件加劇以及購房者在 12 月季度鎖定利率的數量減少。我們預計我們 2023 財年的金融服務稅前利潤率將高於第一季度，但低於 2022 財年全年。在第一季度，我們抵押貸款公司 99% 的貸款發放與我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋有關，我們的抵押貸款公司為 77% 的購房者辦理了融資。 FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司貸款量的 45%。本季度通過 DHI Mortgage 發放貸款的借款人的平均 FICO 得分為 722，平均貸款價值比為 88%。首次購房者占我們抵押貸款公司本季度處理的成交量的 55%。麥克風？

Our rental operations generated $328 million of revenues during the first quarter from the sale of 694 single-family rental homes and 300 multi-family rental units, earning pretax income of $110 million. Our rental property inventory at December 31 was $2.9 billion, which included approximately $1.9 billion of single-family rental properties and $1 billion of multifamily rental properties. We expect our rental operations to generate significant increases in both revenues and profits in fiscal 2023 as our platform matures and expands across more markets. For the second quarter, we currently expect no multi-family rental sales and to close fewer single-family rental homes than in the first quarter. Paul?

我們的租賃業務在第一季度通過出售 694 套單戶出租房屋和 300 套多戶出租單元產生了 3.28 億美元的收入，稅前收入為 1.1 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 29 億美元，其中包括約 19 億美元的單戶出租物業和 10 億美元的多戶出租物業。我們預計，隨著我們的平台成熟並擴展到更多市場，我們的租賃業務將在 2023 財年產生收入和利潤的顯著增長。對於第二季度，我們目前預計不會有多戶出租房屋銷售，並且關閉的單戶出租房屋數量將少於第一季度。保羅？

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company reported total revenues of $216.7 million on 2,263 lots sold and pretax income of $27.9 million for the first quarter. Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at December 31 was 82,300 lots. 57% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $190 million of our finished lots purchased in the first quarter were from Forestar. Forestar is separately capitalized from D.R. Horton and had more than $580 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 28.7%. The Forestar is well positioned to meet the current challenging market conditions with its strong capitalization, lot supply and relationship with D.R. Horton. Bill?

Forestar 是我們擁有多數股權的住宅地塊開發公司，報告第一季度售出 2,263 塊地塊的總收入為 2.167 億美元，稅前收入為 2,790 萬美元。截至 12 月 31 日，Forestar 擁有和控制的手數為 82,300 手。 Forestar 擁有的地塊中有 57% 與 D.R. 簽訂了合同或享有優先購買權。霍頓。我們在第一季度購買的成品地塊中有 1.9 億美元來自 Forestar。 Forestar 與 D.R. 分開資本化。霍頓在季度末擁有超過 5.8 億美元的流動資金，淨債務資本比率為 28.7%。 Forestar 憑藉其強大的資本化、大量供應以及與 D.R. 的關係，能夠很好地應對當前充滿挑戰的市場條件。霍頓。賬單？

Our balanced capital approach focuses on being disciplined, flexible and opportunistic. We are committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet with low leverage and significant liquidity to provide a firm foundation for our operated platforms during changes in market conditions and to support our ability to provide consistent returns to our shareholders. During the first 3 months of the year, our cash provided by homebuilding operations was $313.9 million, and our consolidated cash provided by operations was $829.1 million. At December 31, we had $4 billion of homebuilding liquidity, consisting of $2 billion of unrestricted homebuilding cash and $2 billion of available capacity on our homebuilding revolving credit facility. Our liquidity provides significant flexibility to adjust to changing market conditions.

我們平衡的資本方法側重於紀律嚴明、靈活和機會主義。我們致力於維持穩健的資產負債表、低杠桿率和大量流動性，以便在市場條件變化時為我們運營的平台奠定堅實的基礎，並支持我們為股東提供穩定回報的能力。今年前 3 個月，房屋建築業務提供的現金為 3.139 億美元，業務提供的綜合現金為 8.291 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 40 億美元的房屋建築流動資金，包括 20 億美元的不受限制的房屋建築現金和 20 億美元的房屋建築循環信貸額度的可用容量。我們的流動性為適應不斷變化的市場條件提供了極大的靈活性。

Our homebuilding leverage was 12.8% at the end of December, and homebuilding leverage net of cash was 4.4%. Our consolidated leverage at December 31 was 22% and consolidated leverage net of cash was 13.3%. At December 31, our stockholders' equity was $20.2 billion and book value per share was $58.71, up 33% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended December, our return on equity was 31.5%. During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $86.1 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level as last quarter to be paid in February. During the quarter, we repurchased 1.4 million shares of common stock for $118.1 million.

截至 12 月底，我們的房屋建築槓桿率為 12.8%，扣除現金後的房屋建築槓桿率為 4.4%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的綜合槓桿率為 22%，扣除現金後的綜合槓桿率為 13.3%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的股東權益為 202 億美元，每股賬面價值為 58.71 美元，比一年前增長 33%。截至 12 月的過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率為 31.5%。本季度，我們支付了 8610 萬美元的現金股息，我們的董事會已宣布與上一季度相同水平的季度股息將於 2 月支付。本季度，我們以 1.181 億美元回購了 140 萬股普通股。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

As we look forward, we expect challenging market conditions to persist with continued uncertainty regarding mortgage rates, the capital markets and general economic conditions that may significantly impact our business. We are providing detailed guidance for the second quarter as is our standard practice, but it is still too early to know what housing market conditions will be during the height of the spring selling season, so we are not providing specific guidance for the full year yet. We currently expect to generate consolidated revenues in our March quarter of $6.3 billion to $6.7 billion, and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 16,000 to 17,000 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin in the second quarter to be approximately 20% to 21%, and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues in the second quarter to be approximately 8% to 8.3%. We anticipate a financial services pretax profit margin of around 20%, and we expect our income tax rate to be approximately 23.5% to 24% in the second quarter. We are well positioned to aggregate market share in both our homebuilding and rental operations. Our goal remains to generate consolidated revenues in fiscal 2023 or slightly higher than fiscal 2022. However, it is realistic to expect that our full year revenues will decline year-over-year given the environment and pricing actions we are taking. The low end of our current range of expectations includes consolidated revenues down from fiscal 2022 by a mid-teens percentage, which is unchanged from last quarter.

展望未來，我們預計充滿挑戰的市場條件將持續存在，抵押貸款利率、資本市場和總體經濟狀況的持續不確定性可能會對我們的業務產生重大影響。按照我們的標準做法，我們正在為第二季度提供詳細的指導，但現在了解春季銷售高峰期的房地產市場狀況還為時過早，因此我們尚未提供全年的具體指導.我們目前預計在我們的 3 月季度產生 63 億至 67 億美元的綜合收入，我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋將在 16,000 至 17,000 套房屋之間。我們預計第二季度我們的房屋銷售毛利率約為 20% 至 21%，而第二季度房屋建築 SG&A 佔收入的百分比約為 8% 至 8.3%。我們預計金融服務稅前利潤率約為 20%，我們預計第二季度的所得稅稅率約為 23.5% 至 24%。我們有能力在我們的房屋建築和租賃業務中積累市場份額。我們的目標仍然是在 2023 財年或略高於 2022 財年產生綜合收入。但是，考慮到我們正在採取的環境和定價行動，預計我們的全年收入將同比下降是現實的。我們當前預期範圍的低端包括綜合收入比 2022 財年下降了十幾%，與上一季度持平。

We forecast an income tax rate for the year of approximately 23.5% to 24%. We expect to generate increased cash flow from our homebuilding operations and on a consolidated basis in fiscal 2023 compared to fiscal 2022. We also plan to repurchase shares at a similar dollar amount as last year to reduce our share count during this year with the volume of our repurchases dependent on cash flow, liquidity, market conditions and our investment opportunities. We have $700 million of senior notes that matured during the remainder of fiscal 2023, which we are currently preparing to repay from cash. We plan to continue to balance our cash flow utilization priorities among our core homebuilding operations, our rental operations, maintaining conservative homebuilding leverage and strong liquidity, paying an increased dividend and consistently repurchasing shares. David?

我們預計今年的所得稅稅率約為 23.5% 至 24%。與 2022 財年相比，我們預計 2023 財年的房屋建築業務和綜合現金流量將增加。我們還計劃以與去年類似的美元金額回購股票，以減少我們今年的股票數量，數量為我們的回購取決於現金流、流動性、市場狀況和我們的投資機會。我們有 7 億美元的優先票據在 2023 財年剩餘時間內到期，我們目前正準備用現金償還這些票據。我們計劃繼續在我們的核心房屋建築業務、我們的租賃業務、保持保守的房屋建築槓桿和強大的流動性、支付更多的股息和持續回購股票之間平衡我們的現金流利用優先級。大衛？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and diverse product offerings. Our strong balance sheet, liquidity and low leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility to effectively operate in changing economic conditions and continue aggregating market share. We plan to maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of the company, which includes returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis. Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton team for your focus and hard work. We are incredibly well positioned to continue improving our operations and providing home ownership opportunities to more American families.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡和多樣化的產品供應。我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和低杠桿率為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性，可以在不斷變化的經濟條件下有效運營並繼續擴大市場份額。我們計劃保持我們嚴格的資本投資方法，以提高公司的長期價值，包括通過一致的基礎上的股息和股票回購向我們的股東返還資本。感謝整個 D.R.霍頓團隊為您的專注和努力。我們非常有能力繼續改善我們的運營並為更多美國家庭提供擁有房屋的機會。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們現在將主持問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) And the first question is coming from Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

謝謝你。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

I just want to ask about inventory, unsold inventory. So about 2/3 of the inventory that you've got now is unsold. I think normally, it's about half when I went back and looked. So I just want to make sure, should we be optimistic because you've got product ready to go for the spring or the supply chain perhaps is normalizing a little, which is allowing you to get that ready -- or should we be more pessimistic because you haven't necessarily priced that inventory to move yet? That's my first question.

我只想問一下存貨，未售出的存貨。因此，您現在擁有的大約 2/3 的庫存未售出。我想正常吧，回去看的時候大概有一半。所以我只想確定，我們是否應該樂觀，因為您已經為春季準備好產品，或者供應鏈可能正在正常化一點，這讓您做好了準備——或者我們應該更悲觀因為您還沒有為要移動的庫存定價？這是我的第一個問題。

Carl, as you know, I'm always optimistic. We feel very good about our inventory position. And through the last 3, 4 quarters, we limited sales to better align inventory cost, demand and our ability to deliver. We are now positioned more in what I would consider a normalized inventory position and again, feel very good about how we're positioned and where we're heading into this quarter.

卡爾，如你所知，我總是很樂觀。我們對我們的庫存狀況感到非常滿意。在過去的 3、4 個季度中，我們限制了銷售，以更好地調整庫存成本、需求和我們的交付能力。我們現在更多地定位在我認為正常化的庫存位置，並且再次對我們的定位以及我們進入本季度的位置感覺非常好。

Normally coming into the spring selling season would be a little heavier than our normal 50% spec ratio. But I feel really good about what we have in front of us right now for demand.

通常進入春季銷售季節會比我們正常的 50% 規格比率重一點。但我對我們現在面臨的需求感到非常滿意。

Okay. And then I was looking at the market count now, we're about 109 markets in, say, 4 years ago, I think you were about 80% or so. That's a lot. And obviously, you all benefited post-COVID by entering a lot of smaller markets that saw a fair amount of demand post the pandemic. Now that, that wave is potentially crested, can you talk about how some of the new -- especially the smaller, what I call the tertiary city markets, are performing over the course of the last 6 months? Are they better than some of the major markets, less competitors? Or is that growth beginning to weighing now that we've seen a little more return to office back to the large cities?

好的。然後我在看現在的市場數量，比如說，4 年前我們大約有 109 個市場，我認為你大約是 80% 左右。好多啊。顯然，你們都通過進入許多在大流行病後看到大量需求的較小市場而受益於後 COVID。現在，這波浪潮可能已經達到頂峰，您能否談談一些新的——尤其是較小的，我稱之為三線城市市場，在過去 6 個月中的表現如何？他們是否比一些主要市場更好，競爭對手更少？還是因為我們已經看到更多的人回到大城市，這種增長開始受到影響？

Carl, we've seen these newer markets and secondary markets performing well for us due to limited competition in those markets. We certainly saw a strong push to all of the secondary markets with a pandemic moving people, making them more mobile. But we've been happy with the progression in those secondary markets and glad that we entered them.

卡爾，由於這些市場的競爭有限，我們已經看到這些較新的市場和二級市場對我們來說表現良好。我們當然看到了對所有二級市場的強大推動，大流行使人們流動，使他們更具流動性。但我們對這些二級市場的進展感到滿意，並很高興我們進入了它們。

Even before the pandemic, we did very well in the small markets. And ultimately, it comes back to SG&A and control and the ability to deliver houses incrementally at a competitive advantage to what anybody else out there is able to do. So that's been a part of our program. And I think you're going to see it continue to be a part of our program.

甚至在大流行之前，我們在小市場上就做得很好。最終，它回到了 SG&A 和控制，以及以競爭優勢逐步交付房屋的能力，這是其他任何人都無法做到的。所以這是我們計劃的一部分。我想你會看到它繼續成為我們計劃的一部分。

And the next question is coming from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

I wanted to ask about the construction cost environment. I think I heard you say at the top that you were making some progress, but I'm paraphrasing, but perhaps not expecting to see as much benefit on the construction cost side on homes closed through fiscal '23. Obviously, some of your peers have sort of quantified some of the benefits they might already be seeing on the construction cost side. So just curious if you can parse that out a little bit as you guys sort of aggregate market share. How should we think about your ability to press on costs here?

我想問一下建設成本環境。我想我聽到你在高層說你正在取得一些進展，但我是在解釋，但也許不希望在 23 財年關閉的房屋的建築成本方面看到那麼多的好處。顯然，您的一些同行已經量化了他們在建築成本方面可能已經看到的一些好處。所以很好奇你們是否可以在你們總市場份額的情況下稍微分析一下。我們應該如何考慮您在這裡壓縮成本的能力？

We've been really successful working with a lot of our trade partners in lowering our costs, and we've gotten a little bit of tailwind from -- certainly from the lumber price reductions that have occurred. But it just takes a while for those cost changes on the front end to actually show up in the closing, especially with the more recently prolonged build times. So we -- it's just a function of the calendar working those new cost structures through the pipeline. So the deliveries we see in '23 were largely -- first half of the year especially started in fiscal '22 in a different cost environment.

我們在與許多貿易夥伴合作降低成本方面取得了真正的成功，而且我們從中得到了一點順風——當然是從已經發生的木材價格下降中。但是，前端的這些成本變化只需要一段時間才能真正顯示在收盤中，尤其是最近延長的構建時間。所以我們——這只是日曆的一個功能，通過管道處理這些新的成本結構。因此，我們在 23 年看到的交付主要是 - 今年上半年，特別是在不同的成本環境下從 22 財年開始。

And typically, lumber prices go up as we move throughout the spring. So although we're seeing a benefit from lumber today, if typical seasonality holds, lumber would actually be a headwind against the cost reductions that we are seeing on those new home starts that Mike just alluded to.

通常情況下，隨著我們在整個春季搬家，木材價格會上漲。因此，儘管我們今天看到木材帶來的好處，但如果典型的季節性持續存在，木材實際上會阻礙我們在 Mike 剛剛提到的那些新房開工中看到的成本降低。

Okay. Got you. And then second one, just kind of following up around the pricing environment. As you've seen sort of some of your peers have enacted, I guess, different strategies around pricing versus pace here. And perhaps as we get into the spring, we might expect to see some builders on the ground react more aggressively on the pricing side versus -- I would argue you guys have been leading that first, I guess. So as we get into the spring, sort of what are your expectations or perhaps what are you seeing on the ground right now around your competition and price reductions? And would you expect to see sort of another leg lower on the pricing and margin side through all that?

好的。明白了然後是第二個，只是跟進定價環境。正如你所看到的，你的一些同行已經制定了，我猜，圍繞定價與速度的不同策略。也許當我們進入春天時，我們可能會期望看到一些當地的建築商在定價方面做出更積極的反應——我想我認為你們一直在領先。因此，當我們進入春季時，您的期望是什麼，或者您現在在競爭和降價方面看到了什麼？您是否期望通過這一切在定價和利潤方面看到另一條腿？

We have still addressed our incentives with a balance of rate buy-downs, financial incentives, along with adjusting price community by community to drive the returns that we're looking for. As we enter into the spring selling season, we're seeing some seasonality that we're happy with as the market starts to lead and we'll continue to adjust to drive the absorptions by community.

我們仍然通過利率回購、財務激勵以及逐個社區調整價格來推動我們正在尋找的回報之間取得平衡來解決我們的激勵問題。隨著我們進入春季銷售旺季，隨著市場開始引領我們看到一些令我們滿意的季節性，我們將繼續調整以推動社區的吸收。

And the next question is coming from John Lovallo from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

The first one is, you mentioned the first few weeks of January saw increased activity. Can you maybe just elaborate a little bit on that and maybe frame it sequentially or year-over-year? And how were incentives in the first few weeks of January relative to December?

第一個是，您提到 1 月的前幾週活動有所增加。你能不能稍微詳細說明一下，然後按順序或逐年構建它？與 12 月相比，1 月前幾週的激勵措施如何？

Yes. So we talked about on the call that we do expect to see normal seasonality in terms of the move from Q1 to Q2 sales. And so what we saw in terms of the increased sales activity in the first few weeks of January was a positive early indicator. It is still too early to ultimately say what's going to happen this spring, but it gave us the confidence to say that we could see normal seasonality, which typically would be about 50% up from Q1 to Q2 in terms of net sales orders. We also did see a slight improvement at only a few weeks, which doesn't make a quarter, but we've seen a slight improvement in our cancellation rate in January as well, which also helped give us the confidence to say an increased level of net sales orders in Q2 versus Q1.

是的。因此，我們在電話會議上談到，我們確實希望看到從第一季度到第二季度銷售的正常季節性。因此，我們在 1 月的前幾週看到的銷售活動增加是一個積極的早期指標。現在說今年春天會發生什麼還為時過早，但它讓我們有信心說我們可以看到正常的季節性，就淨銷售訂單而言，從第一季度到第二季度通常會增加約 50%。我們也確實在幾週內看到了輕微的改善，這並沒有成為一個季度，但我們也看到 1 月份的取消率也略有改善，這也讓我們有信心說出更高的水平第二季度與第一季度的淨銷售訂單。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe could we talk just about cash flow expectations. It seems like it's going to be pretty robust here. When you're buying back stock, paying dividends, paying down $700 million in debt. So maybe just your expectations for cash flow and what the expectation for rental investment might be?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許我們可以談談現金流預期。看起來它在這裡會非常強大。當你回購股票、支付股息、償還 7 億美元的債務時。那麼也許只是您對現金流的期望以及對租賃投資的期望是什麼？

Yes, we still expect increased cash flow from our homebuilding operations in fiscal '23 versus fiscal '22. We saw our inventory step down slightly this quarter. We will be increasing our starch pace as we move into the spring and then adjusting that to what we see in market demand. So we may not continue to see the same pace of cash generation as we did in our first quarter, but we do still expect to see robust cash. And then we're going to continue to take our balanced approach to deploying that first and foremost of the homebuilding business next to the rental business. We will still see a substantial increase in our assets.

是的，與 22 財年相比，我們仍然預計 23 財年房屋建築業務的現金流量會增加。本季度我們看到我們的庫存略有下降。隨著我們進入春季，我們將加快我們的澱粉步伐，然後根據我們在市場需求中看到的情況進行調整。因此，我們可能不會繼續看到與第一季度相同的現金生成速度，但我們仍然希望看到強勁的現金。然後我們將繼續採取平衡的方法來部署租賃業務旁邊的首要房屋建築業務。我們仍將看到我們的資產大幅增加。

In the rental business this year. We're not guiding to a specific growth number there quite yet for fiscal '23 because we're still evaluating the market and evaluating investments as we move through the year, but we do expect that level of inventory to increase while we see a significant increase in revenues in that business. And then past that, we will continue to pay dividends and continue to repurchase shares. We expect to repurchase shares at a similar dollar volume as last year, which would indicate greater than $1 billion of share repurchases for fiscal '23. And then finally, on the balance sheet front, while we're very pleased with our leverage level, we do have $700 million of senior notes that mature in fiscal '23, $300 million in February, $400 million in August and currently, just given the overall environment and our cash flow expectations, we're preparing to pay those debt maturities off from cash. But obviously, we'll evaluate capital markets along the way to determine whether we want to refinance or not. But right now, preparing to pay those for cash.

今年從事租賃業務。我們還沒有指導 23 財年的具體增長數字，因為我們仍在評估市場和評估投資，但我們確實預計庫存水平會增加，同時我們看到顯著該業務的收入增加。然後，我們將繼續支付股息並繼續回購股票。我們預計將以與去年相似的美元數量回購股票，這表明 23 財年的股票回購額超過 10 億美元。最後，在資產負債表方面，雖然我們對我們的槓桿水平非常滿意，但我們確實有 7 億美元的優先票據在 23 財年到期，2 月份 3 億美元，8 月份 4 億美元，目前，剛剛給出整體環境和我們的現金流預期，我們正準備用現金償還這些到期債務。但顯然，我們將一路評估資本市場，以確定我們是否要再融資。但現在，準備用現金支付這些費用。

And the next question is coming from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Great. Lots of good information. I wanted to follow up on, I think, Matt's question regarding the cost negotiations, though. I think last quarter, you had suggested that you could see the benefit starting to -- certainly from repositioning your product at least to benefit you by your fiscal third quarter. I was just wondering whether or not that process is maybe taking a little longer or if that was sort of separate from your comments on the labor and product negotiations. And then in your answer to him, I think you also sort of mentioned or volunteered that you were sort of assuming lumber costs were going to increase. And I just wanted to get a sense, how much of an assumption are -- how much of an increase are you assuming you might see in lumber? Are you sort of just conservatively modeling it might go like halfway back to where it was last year? Just give us a sense for what you're incorporating in your outlook for lumber, knowing that you don't know yet, obviously.

偉大的。很多好的信息。不過，我想跟進 Matt 關於成本談判的問題。我認為上個季度，你曾建議你可以看到好處開始——當然是從重新定位你的產品至少到你的第三財季使你受益。我只是想知道該過程是否可能需要更長的時間，或者這是否與您對勞工和產品談判的評論有所不同。然後在你對他的回答中，我想你也提到或自願說你假設木材成本會增加。我只是想了解一下，有多少假設是——你假設你可能會看到木材增加多少？您是否只是保守地建模它可能會回到去年的一半？只需讓我們了解您在木材前景中所包含的內容，顯然您還不知道。

Most importantly, we don't know and we're taking probably a conservative stance in looking at the fact that seasonally in a normal seasonal environment, we do see lumber cost increase through the spring. And if we do -- are seeing some normalized demands coming back with spring selling season, seasonality, would expect that to drive lumber prices higher, which would offset some of the efforts we've made on like-for-like cost reductions. We have been able to get new product starch out -- new home starts out that are more reflected to today's environment, smaller homes, more affordable homes that should help, but in terms of a like-for-like cost benefit increase, it's going to take a little while for that product to move through the system in a material way.

最重要的是，我們不知道而且我們可能會採取保守的立場來看待這樣一個事實，即在正常的季節性環境中，我們確實看到整個春季的木材成本都在上漲。如果我們這樣做了——看到一些正常化的需求隨著春季銷售季節、季節性因素的出現而回歸，預計這將推高木材價格，這將抵消我們在類似成本削減方面所做的一些努力。我們已經能夠推出新產品——新房子的開工更能反映當今的環境，更小的房子，更負擔得起的房子應該有所幫助，但就類似的成本效益增長而言，它正在需要一些時間讓該產品以物質方式在系統中移動。

I didn't hear a number there. I was getting ready to write a number down. I didn't hear a number. You want to give us a sense for sort of like how much of the way back just sort of thinking lumber might increase?

我在那裡沒有聽到數字。我正準備寫下一個數字。我沒有聽到數字。您想給我們一種感覺，就像思考木材可能會增加多少回程一樣？

We don't have a sense for a number, Steve, I'm sorry. We're not that good at predicting. We're just taking a conservative approach that seasonally lumber tends to go up in the spring, and that's probably going to have an impact on our cost and our deliveries later in the year.

我們對數字沒有感覺，史蒂夫，對不起。我們不擅長預測。我們只是採取保守的方法，即季節性木材在春季往往會上漲，這可能會對我們的成本和今年晚些時候的交付產生影響。

It does feel, Stephen, like there is some normalcy returning to the market. And so you go back pre-pandemic, and you look at what happened, the costs get inflated during the last year, 18 months? Yes. Are we fighting to get that back? Yes. a commodity price like lumber may go up, may go down. It may stay the same. But are we going to be conservative in our guidance? Absolutely, we are.

斯蒂芬，確實感覺市場恢復了正常。所以你回到大流行前，看看發生了什麼，成本在去年 18 個月裡膨脹了？是的。我們是否正在努力奪回它？是的。像木材這樣的商品價格可能會上漲，也可能會下跌。它可能保持不變。但是我們會在我們的指導中保守嗎？當然，我們是。

Yes. No complaints here. And I'll say that if lumber goes up because of normalization, I think we'll take it. In regards to your lot count, I noticed that your owned lot count in numbers -- numbers of lots went up a little bit. I think quarter-on-quarter, it had declined, I believe, in the last 2 quarters preceding that. So I'm curious, are you -- or at least in the last -- yes, last -- sorry, the last 2 quarters preceding that. Are you -- do you feel like your lot cost -- sorry, your lots owned will increase from here -- or do you think we might actually see a further reduction in your actual number of owned lots. Just try to give us a sense for what that number might be, not in year supply but more like in absolute units.

是的。這裡沒有抱怨。我會說，如果木材因為正常化而上漲，我想我們會接受它。關於您的拍品數量，我注意到您擁有的拍品數量——拍品數量略有增加。我認為環比下降，我相信，在那之前的最後兩個季度。所以我很好奇，你是 - 或者至少在最後 - 是的，最後 - 抱歉，在那之前的最後兩個季度。你 - 你覺得你的地塊成本 - 抱歉，你擁有的地塊會從這裡增加 - 或者你認為我們實際上可能會看到你實際擁有的地塊數量進一步減少。只是試著讓我們了解這個數字可能是多少，而不是年供應量，更像是絕對單位。

Yes, Stephen. We have worked hard for the lot position that we have and the relationships that we've built and with those development relationships, and we're continuing to -- it's still hard to get a lot on the ground. And so our lot count is a percentage of owned and total numbers, we expect to continue to increase. And some of that will depend on what we see with the spring selling season and through the rest of fiscal 2023, but we don't expect that to go down. And we expect to see potentially our owned lot supply as a percent increase marginally through this market.

是的，斯蒂芬。我們一直在為我們擁有的地段位置和我們建立的關係以及與這些發展關係的關係而努力，並且我們將繼續 - 仍然很難在實地取得很多進展。因此，我們的批次數量佔擁有數量和總數的百分比，我們預計會繼續增加。其中一些將取決於我們對春季銷售季節和 2023 財年剩餘時間的看法，但我們預計這種情況不會下降。我們希望通過這個市場看到我們擁有的地段供應量可能略有增加。

And as a reference, again, our owned lot finished percentage is only 32%, which is roughly 43,000 lots. So we're by no means oversupplied from a finished lot perspective, which is what we're trying to continue to position ourselves forward community by community.

作為參考，我們擁有的地塊完成率僅為 32%，大約為 43,000 地塊。因此，從成品批次的角度來看，我們絕不會供過於求，這就是我們正在努力繼續將自己定位為一個社區一個社區。

The next question is coming from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

I just wanted to circle back to your more recent trend and demand comments. Obviously, you mentioned that the first few weeks of January saw some increased activity and that you could see a typical 50% improvement in orders in 2Q versus 1Q. That would imply, if we were to take that just on a straightforward basis, an order decline of only roughly 20% down year-over-year. So I'm curious around if that's kind of -- and I know you haven't given hard guidance or a range, but directionally, if that's how we should be thinking about things? And also to this point around the improvement that you saw in January, I was curious also if you could kind of give any color around trends intra-quarter during the past first quarter, if that improvement in January was a continuation of perhaps a change in trend that you saw during your December quarter.

我只是想回到你最近的趨勢和需求評論。顯然，您提到 1 月份的前幾週活動有所增加，您可以看到第二季度的訂單比第一季度增加了 50%。這意味著，如果我們直接採取這一點，訂單同比下降約 20%。所以我很好奇這是否有點——我知道你沒有給出硬性指導或範圍，但是方向性的，如果那是我們應該如何考慮事情的方式？關於這一點，您在 1 月份看到的改善，我也很好奇，您是否可以對過去第一季度的季度內趨勢給出任何顏色，如果 1 月份的改善是 1 月份變化的延續您在 12 月季度看到的趨勢。

I would say during the December quarter, as we mentioned on the call, as you know, Mike, is the seasonally slowest quarter of the year. So we generally don't extrapolate anything that happens in October, November and December, and we don't generally give a whole lot of monthly color, but we felt like based on current market conditions that warranted talking about the first few weeks of January, and that's what we're pleased with is we've seen what we would typically expect to see as we move through these first few weeks.

正如我們在電話中提到的那樣，我會說在 12 月季度，正如你所知，邁克，是一年中季節性最慢的季度。因此，我們通常不會推斷 10 月、11 月和 12 月發生的任何事情，而且我們通常不會給出很多月度顏色，但我們覺得基於當前的市場狀況，有必要討論 1 月的前幾週，這就是我們感到高興的是，我們已經看到了我們在最初幾週內通常期望看到的情況。

In terms of the math that you laid out, if we do see that normal seasonality, yes, it still would result in net sales down year-over-year, but up very nicely sequentially.

就您提出的數學而言，如果我們確實看到正常的季節性，是的，它仍然會導致淨銷售額同比下降，但環比增長非常好。

Right. And secondly, I know there's been a couple of questions around the construction costs and the impact there. I think that's kind of been covered pretty well. Obviously, another big part is the gross margin guidance for the second quarter, you're expecting further declines. I wanted to also focus though on pricing trends in the market. And if you could kind of give us a sense of -- on a total basis, how much net pricing has come down from June of last year to today? And how much of that has occurred in the last month or two?

正確的。其次，我知道圍繞建築成本及其影響存在一些問題。我認為這已經很好地涵蓋了。顯然，另一個重要部分是第二季度的毛利率指導，您預計會進一步下降。我還想關注市場的定價趨勢。如果你能給我們一種感覺——從總體上看，從去年 6 月到今天，淨定價下降了多少？其中有多少是在過去一兩個月發生的？

In terms of just pricing, really, our net sales orders in the quarter and the average sales price on that is the best indication. Our net sales order price this quarter is around $367,000, I believe. And of course, we peaked last year, a little over $400,000. So you're already looking at roughly a 10% decline in our net sales orders. And as then we look at our margin guide going forward, we're taking recent pricing into effect. We're hopeful that if we see some normal seasonality and normal demand during the spring that further significant pricing reductions would not be necessary. But we're going to assess that week-to-week and month-to-month as we go through the spring. But our gross margin guide takes into account recent pricing along with the cost trends that we've already been discussing.

就定價而言，實際上，我們本季度的淨銷售訂單和平均銷售價格是最好的指示。我相信，我們本季度的淨銷售訂單價格約為 367,000 美元。當然，我們去年達到頂峰，略高於 400,000 美元。所以你已經看到我們的淨銷售訂單下降了大約 10%。當我們查看未來的保證金指南時，我們正在實施最近的定價。我們希望，如果我們在春季看到一些正常的季節性和正常的需求，那麼就沒有必要進一步大幅降價。但是我們將在整個春季進行每周和每月的評估。但我們的毛利率指南考慮了最近的定價以及我們已經討論過的成本趨勢。

Just to add, it is very hard to put a lot on the ground. It's very hard to build houses. And the overall market is still under slide. So long term, I think we've got a great outlook, what happens in the next quarter. We're going to deal with the market as it comes.

補充一下，很難在實地投入大量資金。建造房屋非常困難。整體市場仍在下滑。從長遠來看，我認為我們有一個很好的前景，下一季度會發生什麼。我們將在市場到來時應對它。

The next question is coming from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

So first, has the land market started to capitulate at all on takedown pricing with your all ASPs down kind of 8% quarter-over-quarter. Are you actually starting to see the land market correct at all with more meaningful price declines? Or is it still just too early to tell?

因此，首先，土地市場是否開始完全屈服於降價定價，所有平均售價環比下降了 8%。您是否真的開始看到土地市場完全正確，價格下跌幅度更大？或者現在下結論還為時過早？

I think generally, it's still a little too early, Truman. Land is typically one of the stickier parts of the process. And as David and Paul both mentioned earlier in the call, it is increasingly difficult to get a lot entitled and on the ground. And so that is something that has held up pretty well. But anecdotally, there are situations where we're able to make some progress on the land residual with some of our land sellers, but not broad trends yet for sure.

總的來說，我認為現在還為時過早，杜魯門。土地通常是該過程中比較棘手的部分之一。正如大衛和保羅在電話中早些時候提到的那樣，越來越難以獲得很多權利和實地。因此，這是一直保持良好狀態的事情。但有趣的是，在某些情況下，我們能夠與我們的一些土地賣家在剩餘土地上取得一些進展，但還不能確定總體趨勢。

Okay. Okay. And then you all made a recent acquisition in Arkansas. Could you all just kind of walk through the drivers of that purchase? And are you seeing more small privates, their willingness to sell at a relatively attractive valuation kind of pop up given the market slowdown?

好的。好的。然後你們都在阿肯色州進行了最近的收購。你們能不能簡單介紹一下購買的驅動因素？鑑於市場放緩，您是否看到更多的小型私人公司願意以相對有吸引力的估值出售？

Yes. The acquisition of Riggins in Northwest Arkansas gave us not only an entrance into the market. We were in there with a couple of communities but gave us a solid position in a market that has remained strong with good employment growth and limited housing supply. Again, to the earlier question of the secondary markets, a solid market that we are happy to be in. It was a good acquisition and tuck-in for us with a well-established community with a great lot of supply. And so it gave us immediate inventory and homes in progress, well-respected builder in the market that we're happy to have as part of the family. As far as other acquisitions, we continue to look at those. And where we have tuck-in opportunities similar to this, we had things that we would explore but no broad-based change in how we look at builders in the market.

是的。收購位於阿肯色州西北部的里金斯，不僅讓我們進入了市場。我們在那裡有幾個社區，但在就業增長良好且住房供應有限的情況下，我們在市場中佔據了穩固的地位。再次，關於二級市場的早期問題，我們很高興進入一個穩固的市場。對於我們來說，這是一個很好的收購和收購，擁有一個擁有大量供應的成熟社區。因此，它為我們提供了即時庫存和在建房屋，我們很高興成為市場上受人尊敬的建築商。至於其他收購，我們繼續關注這些。在我們有類似這樣的機會的地方，我們有一些我們會探索的東西，但我們對市場上建築商的看法並沒有發生廣泛的變化。

The next question is coming from Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research.

下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Eric Bosshard。

Two things. First of all, the 40% reduction in starts, I'm curious if there's -- what the discipline or logic is in what you're not starting, if there's buckets of this, you mentioned trying to change the product a bit to fit a price point. But curious if there's something to learn from how you're making those decisions of where you're reducing starts?

兩件事情。首先，開始減少 40%，我很好奇是否有 - 你沒有開始的紀律或邏輯是什麼，如果有這樣的桶，你提到嘗試稍微改變產品以適應一個價位。但是好奇是否有什麼可以從您如何做出減少開始的決定中學到的東西？

A lot of our starts decisions are made within the quarter on the basis of what the sales trends are occurring at that point in time. And certainly through late summer and into the fall, our first quarter, mortgage rates spiking up, cancellations increasing, looking at our current inventory positions neighborhood by neighborhood relative to recent sales paces certainly led us to slow down our starts. Coming into this fiscal -- calendar year into the second quarter, seeing some improvement in our cycle time and supply chain issues unsnarling, and we feel like we'll be able to start homes and complete them in a more timely fashion this year. So we didn't -- we are trying to meter our starts out a little bit to more closely match our sales demand right now.

我們的許多開工決策都是在本季度內根據當時的銷售趨勢做出的。當然，從夏末到秋季，我們的第一季度，抵押貸款利率飆升，取消貸款增加，相對於最近的銷售速度逐個社區查看我們當前的庫存位置，這肯定導致我們放慢了開工速度。進入本財年 - 進入第二季度的日曆年，看到我們的周期時間和供應鏈問題有所改善，我們覺得我們將能夠在今年更及時地開始建造房屋並完成它們。所以我們沒有——我們正試圖稍微衡量一下我們的開始，以更接近我們現在的銷售需求。

And Eric, I think it's just indicative of the entire industry and lessons learned in the last downturn. I mean I do believe that there is a discipline around the industry, and it's not just short term, chase every market every day. So it's -- we're trying to allow inventory levels with demand and it ultimately comes back to. If you look at the long-term position of the industry, there aren't enough lots or houses for the population and demand that we see taking place over the next 3 to 5 years.

埃里克，我認為這只是整個行業和上次經濟低迷中吸取的教訓的象徵。我的意思是我確實相信這個行業有一個紀律，這不僅僅是短期的，每天追逐每個市場。所以它是 - 我們正試圖讓庫存水平與需求保持一致，它最終會回歸。如果你看一下這個行業的長期狀況，就會發現沒有足夠的土地或房屋來滿足我們在未來 3 到 5 年內發生的人口和需求。

Okay. And then related to this, the inventory per community number looks like it's up. And I guess the follow-on would be the path forward with starts from here is down 40 a pace you maintain for another quarter and then lift your heads up? Or how do you think about the pace of managing the supply path going forward?

好的。然後與此相關的是，每個社區編號的庫存看起來都在增加。而且我猜後續將是前進的道路，從這裡開始是下降 40 的速度，你保持另一個季度，然後抬起頭來？或者您如何看待管理未來供應路徑的步伐？

I think we saw the starts kind of aligned with our sales pace in the quarter. And I think we're going to look to try to maintain that relationship through this time of the year as we're seeing good sales demand in the early spring selling season, we'll be replacing those homes with new starts to continue having inventory in the shelf available to sell. We are certainly seeing more homes selling later in the construction process, certainty of delivery date, certainty of mortgage rate and payment are big important factors for our buyers. And we're also focusing very heavily on recovering our housing inventory turnover metrics and getting more efficient with those inventory dollars. We've got to get our turns back up on our housing inventory.

我認為我們看到開工與本季度的銷售速度相符。而且我認為我們將在每年的這個時候努力保持這種關係，因為我們看到早春銷售旺季的銷售需求良好，我們將用新房取代這些房屋以繼續擁有庫存在可供出售的貨架上。我們肯定會看到更多房屋在施工過程的後期售出，交付日期的確定性、抵押貸款利率和付款的確定性對我們的買家來說是非常重要的因素。我們還非常注重恢復我們的住房庫存周轉率指標，並提高這些庫存美元的效率。我們必須恢復我們的住房庫存。

And so as with everything, our starts are managed community by community, market by market, by our local operators to focus on not piling up excess completed homes that have been sitting there for an extended period of time.

因此，與所有事情一樣，我們的開工是由當地運營商逐個社區、逐個市場管理的，重點是不要堆積已經放在那裡很長時間的多餘完工房屋。

And the next question is coming from Anthony Pettinari from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Anthony Pettinari。

Can you talk about the tenure of buyers who canceled this quarter? Were those contracts that were signed in fiscal 4Q or maybe even earlier? Is there a larger cohort of buyers who may be placed orders in the fall but are still at risk of cancellation with rates rising. Just wondering if you can give any color around kind of cancellation trends there.

你能談談本季度取消的買家的任期嗎？這些合同是在第四財季甚至更早的時候簽署的嗎？是否有更多的買家可能會在秋季下訂單，但隨著利率上漲仍面臨取消訂單的風險。只是想知道您是否可以圍繞那裡的取消趨勢給出任何顏色。

I think as you've seen, our cancellation trend moderate and cancellation rate moderate we have younger backlog that have signed contracts more recently. As Mike spoke to, certainty of home close date and mortgage rate is very important. So as we have cycled through and we're improving our housing inventory turns, I think that's where you're seeing our reduction in cancellation rate.

我認為正如您所見，我們的取消趨勢溫和，取消率適中，我們有更年輕的積壓訂單，最近簽訂了合同。正如 Mike 所說，房屋交割日期和抵押貸款利率的確定性非常重要。因此，隨著我們的循環，我們正在改善我們的住房庫存周轉率，我認為這就是你看到取消率下降的地方。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just in terms of renegotiating prices for homes in backlog, has that sort of normalized or died down now that rates have stopped rising and to your point, cancellations have come down?

好的。這很有幫助。然後就積壓房屋的重新談判價格而言，既然利率已經停止上漲並且就您而言，取消訂單已經減少，那麼這種情況是否正常化或消失了？

Hopefully, with the rate stabilization we've seen -- we'll see stabilization in incentives and pricing environment going forward.

希望隨著我們所看到的利率穩定——我們將看到未來激勵和定價環境的穩定。

The next question is coming from Buck Horne from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Buck Horne。

I wonder if I could dive in a little bit more on the incentives that are out there, the tools that you're using out in the field, it sounds like a lot of builders are having some success with a mortgage rate buydown program where you're buying down or fixing the mortgage rate below market for -- like for the life of the loan it seems to be popular out there. I'm wondering if you could maybe elaborate on. Are you using mortgage rate buy-downs? How does that mechanically work? And kind of what does that cost you in terms of upfront margin hit or as a percentage of sales?

我想知道我是否可以更深入地了解現有的激勵措施，你在該領域使用的工具，聽起來很多建築商在抵押貸款利率回購計劃方面取得了一些成功，你'購買或固定低於市場的抵押貸款利率 - 就像貸款的生命週期一樣，它似乎在那裡很受歡迎。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明。你在使用抵押貸款利率回購嗎？它是如何機械工作的？就前期利潤率或銷售額的百分比而言，這會讓您付出什麼代價？

Yes, Buck. We do, as an ordinary course use mortgage rate buydowns and many of those are for the life of the loan. That's been a program we've had in quite place for quite some time. The costs do vary from time to time, depending on market conditions and timing of when you tie up those positions. But that's something that we try to make sure that we have in the toolbox for our salespeople is to be able to offer an attractive mortgage rate to buyers who come in.

是的，巴克。我們這樣做，作為一個普通課程使用抵押貸款利率回購，其中許多是在貸款期限內。這是我們已經實施了相當長一段時間的計劃。成本確實會不時變化，具體取決於市場條件和您鎖定這些頭寸的時間。但這是我們試圖確保我們的銷售人員工具箱中的東西，能夠為進來的買家提供有吸引力的抵押貸款利率。

Okay. Would you say that that's the most effective sales tool at the moment is a buydown or are you using some other level of incentives?

好的。你會說目前最有效的銷售工具是回購還是你正在使用其他一些激勵措施？

It's going to vary community by community and over time as to what the most attractive incentive is, and we try to put a lot of tools and our division operators hands to make the best decisions about what's going to motivate and drive their realtor and buyer traffic in their communities and excite our sales agents with a reason to call and a reason to drive some traffic this week. So it might be a little bit of a pricing adjustment on a few homes. It might be the rate buydown, some mortgage financing incentives have been very popular, very heavily utilized. And it might be that supply chain is working back out that we're back to a washer-dryer Wednesdays. I mean there's plenty of incentives out there that we're going to use to drive a pace to hit a return we need to hit at every given neighborhood.

隨著時間的推移，最具吸引力的激勵措施將因社區而異，我們嘗試使用大量工具和我們的部門運營商來做出最佳決策，以激勵和推動他們的房地產經紀人和買家流量在他們的社區中，讓我們的銷售代理有理由打電話，並有理由在本週增加一些流量。因此，可能會對一些房屋進行一些價格調整。可能是利率回購，一些抵押貸款融資激勵措施非常受歡迎，使用率很高。可能是供應鏈正在恢復正常，我們週三又回到了洗衣機烘乾機。我的意思是有很多激勵措施，我們將使用這些激勵措施來加快步伐，以達到我們需要在每個給定社區達到的回報。

And one quick separate topic on single-family rentals. And the -- it sounds like the guidance quarter-over-quarter is slightly lower in terms of projected sales of single-family rental homes. I'm wondering if that's strategic to kind of hold back the pace of those sales. And just curious what the demand is like in the marketplace or -- and/or the pricing for stabilized SFR homes these days.

還有一個關於單戶出租的快速單獨主題。而且 - 就單戶出租房屋的預計銷售而言，聽起來季度環比指導略低。我想知道這是否具有戰略意義來阻止這些銷售的步伐。只是好奇這些天市場上的需求是什麼，或者 - 和/或穩定的 SFR 房屋的定價。

It's just timing of projects and when they'll be ready -- completed and ready and through a sale process. We just have fewer this quarter ready to close than we had this past quarter.

這只是項目的時間安排，以及它們何時準備就緒——完成並準備好並通過銷售流程。與上一季度相比，本季度我們準備關閉的數量更少。

The first quarter benefited from a few projects that were lined up to close in the fourth quarter of fiscal '22 had some storm impact and delayed some timing of a few closings there. So that 1Q number was probably a little higher than the original production sales schedule is set up for.

第一季度受益於一些計劃在 22 財年第四季度關閉的項目產生了一些風暴影響，並推遲了那裡一些關閉的時間。因此，第一季度的數字可能略高於最初設定的生產銷售計劃。

The business model is still a complete lease-up market and sell.

商業模式仍然是一個完整的租賃市場和銷售。

And you're starting to see some level of closings each and every quarter, but it is still choppy here in the earlier stages, and we would expect that to become more consistent over time as we get further along with the lots and the houses we have under construction.

你開始看到每個季度都有一定程度的關閉，但在早期階段這裡仍然起伏不定，我們預計隨著我們對地塊和房屋的進一步了解，這種情況會隨著時間的推移變得更加一致有在建。

The next question is coming from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

First, I was hoping maybe you could just help me a little bit reconciling kind of the closings results versus the orders. The closings for this quarter came in well above your guidance. The orders were a bit lighter versus what you signaled in mid-November. And I thought I heard you say that cycle times have been relatively stable, maybe even ticked up a little bit. So how did you drive the upside to closings without stronger order activity? Was it just that much of a greater mix of completed sales versus homes that were a month or 2 out from completion than you were anticipating? And I'm sure that ties into the 2Q guidance as well with your delivery guidance above your beginning backlog. So I'm just maybe looking for a little bit more color to understand what's going on there.

首先，我希望你能幫我稍微核對一下關閉結果與訂單的關係。本季度的關閉遠遠高於您的指導。訂單比您在 11 月中旬發出的信號要輕一些。而且我想我聽到你說周期時間相對穩定，甚至可能會上升一點。那麼，在沒有更強勁的訂單活動的情況下，您是如何推動成交量上漲的呢？是否只是完成銷售與完成後一個月或 2 個月的房屋的組合比您預期的要多得多？而且我確信這與 2Q 指南以及您在開始積壓之上的交付指南有關。所以我可能只是在尋找更多的顏色來了解那裡發生了什麼。

Yes. As we see marginal improvement in our inventory turns and home construction times, you're starting to see and you see that in our numbers, the larger percentage of our inventory homes on the completed side, which allows us to meet the market, which quite frankly, is available to us today, which is shorter-term close. And so we're seeing more homes sell and close in the quarter, getting back more towards historical norms, and we expect to see that on a go-forward basis with the maturity of the home inventory that we have.

是的。當我們看到我們的庫存周轉率和房屋建造時間略有改善時，您開始看到並且您在我們的數字中看到，我們的庫存房屋在已完工方面的比例更大，這使我們能夠滿足市場需求，這相當坦率地說，今天對我們來說是短期收盤。因此，我們看到本季度有更多房屋出售和關閉，更多地回到歷史常態，我們預計隨著我們擁有的房屋庫存的成熟，我們會看到這一點。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Second question kind of related but tying in maybe the margin conversation as well. So when you look at your 7,000 completed specs, are you able to provide a little bit more detail on how many of those are maybe less than 30 days completed? What's more than 30? And how is your pricing strategy differ on completed specs as it hits kind of certain thresholds? Is there a level or a point where you get more aggressive on price adjustments? Or do you kind of just look at it more holistically?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。第二個問題有點相關，但也可能與保證金對話有關。因此，當您查看 7,000 個已完成的規格時，您能否提供更多細節，說明其中有多少可能不到 30 天就完成了？什麼超過30？當您的定價策略達到某種特定閾值時，您的定價策略在完成規格方面有何不同？是否有一個水平或點可以使您在價格調整方面變得更加激進？還是您只是更全面地看待它？

So generally, if we talk about a completed spec where we have a pretty aggressive definition of what's completed, it's when it gets into the final flooring stage. So typically, from a home hitting that completion milestone for us, normal conditions, it's probably going to take between 2 weeks to 4 weeks for that home actually to be moving ready and more likely to the 4-week side of that. So if we look at how many houses we have out there that are kind of aging in the buckets, we have about 190 houses that have been passed our completion date by more than 6 months -- by 6 months or more. So we still feel very comfortable about the freshness of that spec inventory and this is the exact right time of the year to have that inventory, especially with the backdrop of very low existing home sale inventory available in the marketplace.

所以一般來說，如果我們談論一個完整的規範，我們對完成的內容有一個非常積極的定義，那就是它進入最後的地板階段。因此，通常情況下，對於我們來說，從達到完工里程碑的房屋開始，在正常情況下，該房屋實際上可能需要 2 到 4 週的時間才能準備好搬遷，而且更有可能需要 4 週的時間。因此，如果我們看看我們有多少房子有點老化，我們有大約 190 所房子已經超過我們的完工日期超過 6 個月 - 6 個月或更長時間。因此，我們仍然對該規格庫存的新鮮度感到非常滿意，這是一年中擁有該庫存的確切時間，尤其是在市場上現有房屋銷售庫存非常低的背景下。

And that's something we manage very closely. Obviously, we've been building specs for a very long time. We have a lot of discipline around that. And so we do watch those completed specs as they start to age. And they get longer -- if they get longer than 90 days, then yes, we will start to step up the efforts to ensure that we move them. But right now, we still have a very fresh -- fresh batch of completed spikes out there for the spring selling season.

這是我們非常密切地管理的事情。顯然，我們已經建立規範很長時間了。我們對此有很多紀律。因此，當它們開始老化時，我們確實會觀察那些完整的規格。它們會變長——如果它們超過 90 天，那麼是的，我們將開始加緊努力以確保我們移動它們。但現在，我們仍然有一批非常新鮮的——新鮮的完成的釘鞋，用於春季銷售季節。

The next question is coming from Mike Dahl from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

So the first one, just to follow up on the margin discussion. I understand there's not a lot of forward guidance you're going to give beyond this next quarter and a level of uncertainty. I'm wondering just as you see it today, if you look at your current orders, as you look at what you're expecting to sell in the quarter versus kind of the timing of some backlog still coming through in that gross margin that will be reported in fiscal 2Q. How should we be thinking about the likely cadence of margin beyond 2Q? Is it still barring some quick improvement in the market going to be lower as you cycle off your backlog and into the recent sales as you get into fiscal 3Q? Or any color on that?

所以第一個，只是跟進保證金討論。我知道你不會在下個季度之後給出很多前瞻性指導，而且存在一定程度的不確定性。我想知道，就像您今天看到的那樣，如果您查看當前的訂單，當您查看本季度的預期銷售量與毛利率中仍然存在的一些積壓訂單的時間點時將在第二財季報告。我們應該如何考慮第二季度之後可能的保證金節奏？當您進入第三財季時，隨著您結束積壓並進入最近的銷售，它是否仍然會阻止市場的一些快速改善而走低？或者上面有什麼顏色？

Mike, we're only guiding to Q2 margin. And the reason we're only guiding to Q2 margin is we don't know what margins or what the environment will be beyond Q2. The spring selling season, obviously, we've got some early encouraging signs but we don't know what the conditions will be at the height of the spring selling season.

邁克，我們只指導第二季度利潤率。我們只指導第二季度利潤率的原因是我們不知道第二季度之後的利潤率或環境。春季銷售旺季，顯然，我們有一些早期令人鼓舞的跡象，但我們不知道春季銷售高峰期的情況會怎樣。

So we have visibility to where our margins and our sales and our backlog and our pricing and our costs are today heading into the quarter but even Q2 has some level of uncertainty to it. We would expect to sell and close 40% of our closings in the same quarter in the coming quarters. So while we believe that there's some possibility of some stability in the market with mortgage rates stable, that could change this afternoon. And so right now, we're giving you what we get -- what we have. So our guidance for margins of 20% to 21% is what we can see today for Q2. There is some risk, both upside and downside there. I would say it's possible we could beat that range. But it's certainly possible that we might not. But past Q2, we simply don't have visibility right now.

因此，我們可以看到我們的利潤率、我們的銷售額、我們的積壓訂單、我們的定價和我們的成本今天進入這個季度的位置，但即使是第二季度也有一定程度的不確定性。我們預計在未來幾個季度的同一季度出售並關閉我們關閉的 40%。因此，儘管我們認為隨著抵押貸款利率穩定，市場有可能出現某種穩定，但今天下午可能會發生變化。所以現在，我們給你我們得到的——我們擁有的。因此，我們對 20% 至 21% 的利潤率的指導是我們今天可以看到的第二季度。存在一些風險，既有上行風險也有下行風險。我會說我們有可能超過這個範圍。但我們當然有可能不會。但是在第二季度之後，我們現在根本就沒有能見度。

We're going to continue to meet the market and do what we need to do to maximize returns community by community.

我們將繼續滿足市場需求，並做我們需要做的事情，以最大限度地提高社區回報。

Okay. Fair enough. And my second question, there's been a lot in the press around Arizona, in particular, tightening up on some of the water rights and kind of permitting or lack of issuing permits in certain parts of the Phoenix Metro area given some of their requirements around water usage. You guys obviously had your Vidler acquisition last year. I think they do have some projects in Arizona. Can you give us a sense of if the counties or municipalities are just outright of refusing to issue permits to certain areas, does your ownership of Vidler and the projects in those regions exempt you from that? Are you able to still get permits for your planned projects? Or any color on what you're seeing there would be, I think, interesting in light of some of the press that's been out there.

好的。很公平。我的第二個問題，亞利桑那州周圍有很多媒體報導，特別是收緊一些水權，以及鳳凰城某些地區的許可或不頒發許可，因為他們對水有一些要求用法。你們顯然去年收購了 Vidler。我認為他們在亞利桑那州確實有一些項目。您能否告訴我們，如果縣或市直接拒絕向某些地區發放許可證，您對 Vidler 的所有權和這些地區的項目是否免除您的責任？您是否仍能獲得計劃項目的許可？或者你所看到的任何顏色，我認為，根據一些媒體的報導，這很有趣。

Well, yes, I think there has been a lot in the press on water, and (inaudible) and will continue to be a headwind throughout the West, not just in Arizona. And certainly, our acquisition and integration of Vidler has helped our positioning, and that's really some benefit to the short term, but mostly a long-term strategic decision on our part, knowing that we're going to head the -- facing these headwinds for the foreseeable future. I don't think there's been a significant change on a local basis. It's still difficult to get lots on the ground to get entitlements through the process and to get those permits. It has been for a while, and that continues. So we feel good about our position, the lot positions we have in the Phoenix market and we've got a great team on board there that continues to navigate through that environment.

嗯，是的，我認為媒體上有很多關於水的報導，而且（聽不清）並且將繼續成為整個西部的逆風，而不僅僅是在亞利桑那州。當然，我們對 Vidler 的收購和整合幫助了我們的定位，這對短期來說確實有一些好處，但對我們來說主要是一個長期戰略決策，因為我們知道我們將領導——面對這些逆風在可預見的未來。我認為在本地基礎上沒有發生重大變化。仍然很難通過這個過程獲得大量權利並獲得這些許可。已經有一段時間了，而且還在繼續。因此，我們對自己的位置感覺良好，我們在鳳凰城市場擁有的很多位置，我們在那裡擁有一支優秀的團隊，他們將繼續在那個環境中航行。

And the next question is coming from Jay McCanless from Wedbush.

下一個問題來自 Wedbush 的 Jay McCanless。

So Bill, going back to what you talked about looking to close -- or so in close 40% of the 2Q closings. I guess, how in, say, pre-COVID times, what would that percentage have been in normal Q2?

所以比爾，回到你所說的尋求關閉的話題——大約在第二季度關閉的 40% 左右。我想，比如說，在 COVID 之前的時間裡，這個百分比在正常的第二季度是多少？

Sure, Jay. Our typical percentage range is pretty consistently up until the last year or 2 in the 35% to 40% range. A quarter ago, we were in the high teens. A year ago, it was even lower than that. And this quarter, we were roughly 34%. So when we talk about reverting to normal, we started to see that reversion in the first quarter but we expect that to continue to tick up. So whether it's actually 40% or closer to the 35%, 36%, we don't know. But typically, 35% to 40% would be a pretty consistent range for us.

當然，傑伊。直到去年或 2 年，我們的典型百分比範圍一直保持在 35% 至 40% 的範圍內。一個季度前，我們還在十幾歲。一年前，這個數字甚至更低。而本季度，我們大約是 34%。因此，當我們談論恢復正常時，我們在第一季度開始看到這種回歸，但我們預計這種情況會繼續上升。所以我們不知道它實際上是 40% 還是接近 35%、36%。但通常情況下，35% 到 40% 對我們來說是一個相當一致的範圍。

And then the second question I had, assuming you pay down the $1 billion in debt like you've talked about. Any idea of what benefit that might be to gross margin since it's going to be less amortized interest or interest being amortized?

然後是我的第二個問題，假設你像你所說的那樣償還了 10 億美元的債務。知道這對毛利率有什麼好處，因為它會減少攤銷利息或攤銷利息嗎？

Yes, Jay. We have $700 million of homebuilding notes that mature this year and right now we plan to do to pay those off with cash. That's out of just under $3 billion of homebuilding debt. So roughly 25% of the balance would be paid down. But if we do not replace that debt, that would reduce our interest carry in time. That benefit would really primarily be probably noticed in fiscal '24 and beyond because it takes time for the interest to be capitalized and move their inventory. But it would take our interest carry down probably 20, 30 basis points as a percentage of margin over time -- longer-term benefit.

是的，傑伊。我們有 7 億美元的房屋建築票據將於今年到期，現在我們計劃用現金支付這些票據。這是從不到 30 億美元的房屋建築債務中扣除的。因此，將支付大約 25% 的餘額。但是，如果我們不償還該債務，那將及時減少我們的利息。這種好處實際上可能主要在 24 財年及以後才會被注意到，因為利息資本化和轉移庫存需要時間。但隨著時間的推移，我們的利息占利潤率的百分比可能會下降 20、30 個基點——長期利益。

And in the interest of time today, the last question will be coming from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

為了今天的時間，最後一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I just wanted to ask on the rental side. What are you seeing in terms of demand? And margins have been really strong last year and obviously this quarter. Just -- do you anticipate any type of normalization going forward? Or do you think you'll have to hold those properties longer as demand comes down?

我只是想問一下出租方面的問題。你在需求方面看到了什麼？去年和本季度的利潤率都非常強勁。只是——您預計未來會出現任何類型的正常化嗎？還是您認為隨著需求下降，您將不得不持有這些房產更長時間？

I think we're still seeing demand for the properties. I think the pricing and the margins we realized on our early project sales benefited from construction and lower construction cost environments, coupled with a very attractive rate environment when we sold those and that continued to some degree into our first quarter deliveries. We would expect to see some kind of a more normalized reversion to demand to a mean. And I think we'll see our margins come back in line to be closer to slightly above on what we're seeing on the for-sale side -- the traditional core sales side, but our business model is to develop the communities and sell them into the marketplace. That's what we do best, finding the land, building the homes and bringing people to those communities is what we've been very successful with so far. So it still learning, still going to get better, but we do like that business.

我認為我們仍然看到對房產的需求。我認為我們在早期項目銷售中實現的定價和利潤率受益於建築和較低的建築成本環境，再加上我們出售這些項目時非常有吸引力的利率環境，並且在某種程度上持續到我們的第一季度交付。我們希望看到某種更規範化的需求回歸均值。而且我認為我們會看到我們的利潤率恢復到接近略高於我們在銷售方面看到的水平 - 傳統的核心銷售方面，但我們的商業模式是發展社區並銷售他們進入市場。這就是我們最擅長的事情，尋找土地、建造房屋並將人們帶到這些社區是我們迄今為止非常成功的事情。所以它仍在學習，仍然會變得更好，但我們確實喜歡這項業務。

And then just one more on the -- in terms of the improvement in demand that you're seeing in the quarter outlook for orders in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. Can you talk about what you think is driving the stronger demand? Is it the fact that mortgage rates have come down a little bit? Is there anything happening with consumer confidence? What's sort of giving you that confidence and supporting the view that we're going to get back to normal seasonality after what's been sort of a very tough housing market at the end of 2022?

然後還有一個 - 就您在第二季度相對於第一季度的訂單的季度前景中看到的需求改善而言。你能談談你認為是什麼推動了更強勁的需求嗎？是抵押貸款利率有所下降的事實嗎？消費者信心有什麼變化嗎？在經歷了 2022 年底非常艱難的房地產市場之後，是什麼讓您充滿信心並支持我們將恢復正常季節性的觀點？

I do think the credit markets have stabilized somewhat consumer confidence improved a little bit. Job growth continues to be very good. So overall, if you look at pent-up demand at just a generalized economy becoming less bad, very good signs for house. And we monitor ourselves and monitor cash flow since week to week to week to week and so and we see it that trend returning to more of a normalized market, it's hard not to be optimistic that we're going to have a good strength. And so that's the way we're positioned and we get up every day and respond to what happens out there in field.

我確實認為信貸市場已經有所穩定，消費者信心有所改善。就業增長繼續非常好。所以總的來說，如果你看到被壓抑的需求只是普遍經濟變得不那麼糟糕，那麼房屋的好跡象。我們監控自己並監控現金流，從一周到一周到一周到一周，所以我們看到趨勢回歸更多的正常化市場，我們很難不樂觀地認為我們將擁有良好的實力。這就是我們定位的方式，我們每天起床並對現場發生的事情做出反應。

Yes. Specific to Horton, those are other industry reasons, right? Specific to Horton, our inventory position puts us in a more confident place to be able to say we're going to see that pick up with the level of completed homes we have and the stage of construction in the homes behind those are at because what we're seeing the most success in today is buyers we do want a home quickly because they can get that certainty of not only close date, but most importantly, interest rates. And so that is the majority of our buyers today and that's why we feel very confident and are very happy with our inventory position right now.

是的。具體到霍頓，那些是其他行業原因，對吧？具體到 Horton，我們的庫存狀況讓我們更有信心地說，我們將看到我們擁有的已完工房屋的水平以及這些房屋的建設階段正在回升，因為什麼我們今天看到最成功的買家是我們確實想要盡快買房的買家，因為他們不僅可以確定交割日期，而且最重要的是可以確定利率。這就是我們今天的大多數買家，這就是為什麼我們對我們現在的庫存狀況感到非常自信和非常滿意的原因。

Thank you. I would now like to hand the call over to David Auld for some closing remarks.

謝謝你。我現在想將電話轉給 David Auld 以作一些結束語。

Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everyone's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our second quarter results in April. And finally, and congratulations to the entire D.R. Horton team for producing a solid first quarter while navigating changing market conditions, hopefully compete and continue to win every day.

謝謝你，保羅。我們感謝大家今天的電話會議，並期待再次與您交談，分享我們 4 月份的第二季度業績。最後，祝賀整個 D.R.霍頓團隊在應對不斷變化的市場條件的同時，在第一季度取得了穩定的成績，希望每天都能競爭並繼續取勝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。