霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States. (Operator Instructions)

    早上好,歡迎參加 D.R. 的 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。霍頓,美國最大的建築商,美國最大的建築商。 (操作員說明)

  • I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations for D.R. Horton.

    我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 投資者關係副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • Thanks, Holly, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the second quarter of fiscal 2022. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different.

    謝謝,霍莉,早上好。歡迎參加我們的電話會議,討論我們 2022 財年第二季度的業績。在我們開始之前,今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管 D.R. Horton 認為任何此類陳述均基於合理的假設,無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。

  • All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K in its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的信息。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期和 D.R. Horton 不承擔任何公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。有關可能導致性能發生重大變化的因素的其他信息包含在 D.R.霍頓在其最新的 10-Q 表季度報告中的 10-K 表年度報告,這兩份報告均已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

  • This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q in the next day or 2. After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference.

    今天上午的收益發布可以在我們的網站investor.drhorton.com 上找到,我們計劃在第二天或第二天提交我們的 10-Q。在這次電話會議之後,我們將在我們的投資者關係中發布更新的投資者和補充數據演示文稿網站上新聞和事件下的演示部分供您參考。

  • Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our President and CEO.

    現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 David Auld。

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray and Paul Romanowski, our Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. D.R. Horton team delivered an outstanding second quarter, highlighted by a [51%] increase in earnings to $4.03 per diluted share. Our consolidated pretax income increased 60% to $1.9 billion on a 24% increase in revenues. And our consolidated pretax profit margin of 520 basis points to 23.5%. Our homebuilding return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended March 31 was 40.3%, and our consolidated return on equity for the same period was 34%.

    謝謝你,傑西卡,早上好。我很高興能與我們的執行副總裁兼聯席首席運營官 Mike Murray 和 Paul Romanowski 一起參加此次電話會議;以及我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bill Wheat。博士Horton 團隊在第二季度的表現非常出色,突出顯示為每股攤薄收益增加了 [51%] 至 4.03 美元。我們的綜合稅前收入增長了 60%,達到 19 億美元,收入增長了 24%。我們的綜合稅前利潤率為 520 個基點至 23.5%。截至 3 月 31 日的過去 12 個月,我們的房屋建築庫存回報率為 40.3%,同期我們的綜合股本回報率為 34%。

  • These results reflect our experienced teams the production capabilities and our ability to leverage D.R. Horton scale across our broad geographic footprint. Housing market demand remained strong despite the recent increase in mortgage rates and we are focused on maximizing returns while continuing to aggregate market share.

    這些結果反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊的生產能力和我們利用 D.R. 的能力。 Horton 在我們廣泛的地理足跡上進行了擴展。儘管最近抵押貸款利率上升,但住房市場需求仍然強勁,我們專注於最大化回報,同時繼續擴大市場份額。

  • There are still significant challenges in the supply chain, including shortages in certain building materials and a very tight labor market. Our construction cycle times were extended further this quarter, and we continue to work on stabilizing and then reducing our cycle times to historical norms. After starting construction on 24,800 homes this quarter, our homes and inventory increased 30% from a year ago with only 600 unsold completed homes across the nation.

    供應鏈仍存在重大挑戰,包括某些建築材料短缺和勞動力市場非常緊張。本季度我們的建設週期時間進一步延長,我們將繼續努力穩定,然後將我們的周期時間減少到歷史標準。在本季度開始建設 24,800 套房屋後,我們的房屋和庫存比一年前增加了 30%,全國祇有 600 套未售出的完工房屋。

  • With 33,900 homes in backlog, 59,800 homes in inventory, a robust loss supply and strong trade and supplier relationships, we are well positioned for consolidated revenue growth of greater than 25% this year. We believe our strong balance sheet, liquidity and low leverage position us to operate effectively through changing economic conditions. We plan to maintain our flexible operational and financial position by generating strong cash flows from our homebuilding operations, while managing our product offerings, incentives, home pricing, sales pace and inventory levels to optimize returns. Mike?

    憑藉 33,900 套待售房屋、59,800 套庫存房屋、強勁的虧損供應以及強大的貿易和供應商關係,我們為今年實現超過 25% 的綜合收入增長做好了準備。我們相信我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和低杠桿使我們能夠在不斷變化的經濟條件下有效運營。我們計劃通過從我們的住宅建設業務中產生強勁的現金流來維持我們靈活的運營和財務狀況,同時管理我們的產品供應、激勵措施、房屋定價、銷售速度和庫存水平以優化回報。麥克風?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2022 increased 59% to $4.03 per diluted share compared to $2.53 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter increased 55% to $1.4 billion compared to $930 million. Our second quarter home sales revenues increased 22% to $7.5 billion on 19,828 homes closed, up from $6.2 billion on 19,701 homes closed in the prior year.

    與去年同期的每股 2.53 美元相比,2022 財年第二季度的每股攤薄收益增長了 59% 至 4.03 美元。本季度淨收入從 9.3 億美元增長 55% 至 14 億美元。我們第二季度的房屋銷售收入增長了 22%,達到 75 億美元,關閉了 19,828 套房屋,高於去年關閉的 19,701 套房屋的 62 億美元。

  • Our average closing price for the quarter was $378,200, up 21% from the prior year quarter, while the average size of our homes closed was down 1%. Paul?

    我們本季度的平均收盤價為 378,200 美元,比去年同期增長 21%,而我們關閉的房屋的平均規模下降了 1%。保羅?

  • Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Our net sales orders in the second quarter decreased 10% to 24,340 homes, while the value increased 10% from the prior year to $9.7 billion. Our average number of active selling communities increased 1% from the prior year quarter and was up 4% sequentially. The average sales price of net sales orders in the second quarter was $400,600, up 23% from the prior year quarter.

    我們第二季度的淨銷售訂單減少了 10%,至 24,340 套房屋,而價值同比增長了 10%,至 97 億美元。我們活躍銷售社區的平均數量比去年同期增長 1%,環比增長 4%。第二季度淨銷售訂單的平均銷售價格為 400,600 美元,比去年同期增長 23%。

  • The cancellation rate for the second quarter was 16% compared to 15% in the prior year quarter. New home demand remains very strong despite the recent rise in mortgage rates. We are continuing to sell homes later in the construction cycle to better ensure the certainty of the home close date for our homebuyers with virtually no sales occurring prior to the start of home construction. We expect to continue managing our sales pace in the same manner for the rest of the year. Bill?

    第二季度的取消率為 16%,而去年同期為 15%。儘管最近抵押貸款利率上升,但新房需求仍然非常強勁。我們將在建設週期的後期繼續出售房屋,以更好地確保購房者的房屋關閉日期的確定性,在房屋建設開始之前幾乎沒有銷售發生。我們預計在今年餘下的時間裡將繼續以同樣的方式管理我們的銷售速度。賬單?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the second quarter was 28.9%, up 150 basis points sequentially from the December quarter. The increase in our gross margin from December to March reflects the broad strength of the housing market. The strong demand for homes, combined with a limited supply has allowed us to continue to raise prices and maintain a very low level of sales incentives in most of our communities. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were up 4.8% sequentially. While stick and brick cost per square foot increased 2.5% and our lot cost increased 2.8%. We expect our cost will continue to increase.

    我們第二季度房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 28.9%,比 12 月季度環比增長 150 個基點。我們從 12 月到 3 月的毛利率上升反映了房地產市場的廣泛實力。對房屋的強勁需求,加上有限的供應,使我們能夠繼續提高價格,並在我們的大多數社區保持非常低的銷售激勵水平。按每平方英尺計算,房屋銷售收入環比增長 4.8%。而每平方英尺的木棍和磚塊成本增加了 2.5%,而我們的地塊成本增加了 2.8%。我們預計我們的成本將繼續增加。

  • However, with the strength of today's market conditions, we expect most cost pressures to be offset by price increases in the near term. We currently expect our home sales gross margin in the third quarter to be slightly better than the second quarter. Jessica?

    然而,鑑於當今市場狀況的強勁,我們預計大部分成本壓力將在短期內被價格上漲所抵消。我們目前預計我們第三季度的房屋銷售毛利率將略好於第二季度。傑西卡?

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • In the second quarter, homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 6.8%, down 80 basis points from 7.6% in the prior year quarter. This quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was lower than any quarter in our history, and we remain focused on controlling our SG&A while ensuring that our infrastructure adequately supports our business. Paul?

    第二季度,住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 6.8%,比去年同期的 7.6% 下降 80 個基點。本季度,我們的住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比低於我們歷史上任何一個季度,我們仍然專注於控制我們的 SG&A,同時確保我們的基礎設施充分支持我們的業務。保羅?

  • Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • We started 24,800 homes during the quarter, up 5% from the second quarter last year, bringing our trailing 12-month starts to 95,300 homes. We ended the quarter with 59,800 homes in inventory, up 30% from a year ago.

    我們在本季度開工了 24,800 套房屋,比去年第二季度增加了 5%,使我們過去 12 個月的開工量達到 95,300 套。我們在本季度末有 59,800 套房屋庫存,比一年前增長 30%。

  • 26,000 of our total homes at March 31 were unsold, of which only 600 were completed. Our average construction cycle times for homes closed in the second quarter increased by almost 2 weeks since our first quarter and over 2 months from a year ago. Although we have not seen improvement in the supply chain yet, we continue working to stabilize and then reduce our construction cycle times to historical norms. Mike?

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們共有 26,000 套房屋未售出,其中只有 600 套已完工。自第一季度以來,我們第二季度關閉房屋的平均建設週期時間增加了近 2 週,比一年前增加了 2 個多月。雖然我們還沒有看到供應鏈的改善,但我們繼續努力穩定,然後將我們的建設週期時間縮短到歷史標準。麥克風?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • At March 31, our homebuilding lot position consisted of approximately 570,000 lots, of which 23% were owned and 77% were controlled through purchase contracts. 23% of our total owned lots are finished and 47% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them. Our large capital-efficient lot portfolio is a key to our strong competitive position. Our second quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $2.1 billion, of which $1.2 billion was for finished lots, $630 million was for land development and $260 million was to acquire land. Paul?

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們的房屋建築地塊頭寸包括約 570,000 塊地塊,其中 23% 為自有,77% 由購買合同控制。當我們購買它們時,我們擁有的總地塊中有 23% 已經完成,我們控制的地塊中有 47% 已經完成或將要完成。我們龐大的資本高效地塊投資組合是我們強大競爭地位的關鍵。我們第二季度在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 21 億美元,其中 12 億美元用於完工地塊,6.3 億美元用於土地開發,2.6 億美元用於收購土地。保羅?

  • Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company continues to execute well. During the second quarter, Forestar reported total revenues of $421.6 million, and pretax income of $63.2 million. For the full year, Forestar expects to deliver 19,500 to 20,000 lots, and generate $1.7 billion of revenues with a pretax profit margin of 14% to 14.5%.

    我們持有多數股權的住宅地段開發公司 Forestar 繼續表現良好。在第二季度,Forestar 報告總收入為 4.216 億美元,稅前收入為 6320 萬美元。全年,Forestar 預計將交付 19,500 至 20,000 件商品,並產生 17 億美元的收入,稅前利潤率為 14% 至 14.5%。

  • At March 31, Forestar's owned and controlled lot position increased 14% from a year ago to 96,500 [lines]. 57% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $390 million of our finished lots purchased in the second quarter were from Forestar. Forestar is separately capitalized from D.R. Horton, and had approximately $580 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 29.9%. Forestar's strong capitalization, lot supply and relationship with D.R. Horton positions them to continue their profitable growth. Bill?

    截至 3 月 31 日,Forestar 擁有和控制的地塊頭寸比一年前增加了 14%,達到 96,500 [線]。 Forestar 擁有的 57% 地塊與 D.R.霍頓。我們在第二季度購買的成品中有 3.9 億美元來自 Forestar。 Forestar 與 D.R. 分開大寫。 Horton,在季度末擁有約 5.8 億美元的流動性,淨債務與資本比率為 29.9%。 Forestar 強大的資本化、批量供應以及與 D.R. 的關係。霍頓將他們定位為繼續盈利增長。賬單?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Financial services pretax income in the second quarter was $92.8 million with a pretax profit margin of 41.8% compared to $107.7 million and 47.8% in the prior year quarter. For the quarter, 99% of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations and our mortgage company handled the financing for 68% of our homebuyers.

    第二季度金融服務稅前收入為 9280 萬美元,稅前利潤率為 41.8%,而去年同期為 1.077 億美元和 47.8%。在本季度,我們抵押貸款公司 99% 的貸款發放與我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋有關,我們的抵押貸款公司為 68% 的購房者處理了融資。

  • FHA and VA loans accounted for 41% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 724 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 88%. First-time homebuyers represented 55% of the closings handled by the mortgage company this quarter. Mike?

    FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司總量的 41%。本季度通過 DHI Mortgage 發放貸款的借款人平均 FICO 得分為 724,平均貸款價值比為 88%。在本季度抵押貸款公司處理的交易中,首次購房者佔 55%。麥克風?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Our rental operations generated pretax income of $103 million on revenues of $223 million in the second quarter. During the quarter, we sold 1 multifamily rental property consisting of 126 units for $50 million, and we sold 3 single-family rental properties totaling 368 homes for $173 million.

    我們的租賃業務在第二季度的收入為 2.23 億美元,稅前收入為 1.03 億美元。在本季度,我們以 5,000 萬美元的價格出售了 1 個包含 126 個單元的多戶出租物業,我們以 1.73 億美元出售了 3 個單戶出租物業,總計 368 套房屋。

  • Our rental property inventory at March 31 was $1.5 billion compared to $544 million a year ago. Rental property inventory at March 31 included approximately $600 million of multifamily rental properties and $900 million of single-family rental properties. As a reminder, our multifamily and single-family rental sales and inventories are reported in our rental segment and are not included in our homebuilding segments [homes] closed revenues or inventories.

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們的出租物業庫存為 15 億美元,而一年前為 5.44 億美元。 3 月 31 日的出租物業庫存包括約 6 億美元的多戶出租物業和 9 億美元的單戶出租物業。提醒一下,我們的多戶型和單戶型租賃銷售和庫存報告在我們的租賃部門中,不包括在我們的房屋建築部門 [房屋] 封閉收入或庫存中。

  • During the quarter, our rental operations subsidiary, DRH Rental, entered into a 4-year $750 million senior unsecured revolving credit facility. Availability under the rental revolving credit facility is subject to a borrowing base calculation based on unrestricted cash and the book value of DRH rental real estate assets. There were no borrowings outstanding on the rental credit facility at quarter end. We now expect our rental operations to generate more than $800 million in revenues during fiscal 2022. Our third quarter rental sales will be lower than the second quarter and fourth quarter sales will be the highest of the year. We also now expect our total rental platform inventories to grow by more than $1.5 billion in fiscal 2022 based on current projects in development and a significant pipeline of our future projects. We are positioning our rental operations to be a significant contributor to our revenues, profits and returns in future years. Bill?

    本季度,我們的租賃運營子公司 DRH Rental 簽訂了一項為期 4 年、價值 7.5 億美元的高級無抵押循環信貸額度。租賃循環信貸額度下的可用性取決於基於非限制性現金和 DRH 租賃房地產資產賬面價值的借款基礎計算。在季度末,租賃信貸額度沒有未償還的借款。我們現在預計,我們的租賃業務在 2022 財年將產生超過 8 億美元的收入。我們第三季度的租賃銷售額將低於第二季度,第四季度的銷售額將是今年最高的。我們現在還預計,基於當前正在開發的項目和我們未來項目的重要管道,我們的租賃平台總庫存將在 2022 財年增長超過 15 億美元。我們將租賃業務定位為未來幾年為我們的收入、利潤和回報做出重要貢獻。賬單?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Our balanced capital approach focuses on being disciplined, flexible and opportunistic. At March 31, we had $3.2 billion of homebuilding liquidity, consisting of $1.2 billion of unrestricted homebuilding cash and $2 billion of available capacity on our homebuilding revolving credit facility. Our homebuilding leverage was 16.4% at the end of March, and homebuilding leverage net of cash was [11.3%]. Our consolidated leverage at March 31 was 24.9% and consolidated leverage net of cash was 18.9%.

    我們的平衡資本方法側重於自律、靈活和機會主義。截至 3 月 31 日,我們擁有 32 億美元的房屋建築流動資金,其中包括 12 億美元的無限制房屋建築現金和 20 億美元的房屋建築循環信貸額度的可用容量。截至 3 月底,我們的房屋建築槓桿為 16.4%,扣除現金後的房屋建築槓桿為 [11.3%]。我們在 3 月 31 日的綜合槓桿率為 24.9%,扣除現金後的綜合槓桿率為 18.9%。

  • At March 31, our stockholders' equity was $16.8 billion, and book value per share was $47.66, up 33% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended March, our return on equity was 34% compared to 27.1% a year ago. During the first 6 months of the year, our cash used in homebuilding operations was $416 million, which reflects our increased homes and inventory to meet demand and the impact of extended construction cycle times.

    截至 3 月 31 日,我們的股東權益為 168 億美元,每股賬面價值為 47.66 美元,同比增長 33%。截至 3 月的過去 12 個月,我們的股本回報率為 34%,而一年前為 27.1%。今年前 6 個月,我們用於房屋建築業務的現金為 4.16 億美元,這反映了我們增加房屋和庫存以滿足需求以及延長建設週期的影響。

  • During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $79.1 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level as last quarter to be paid in May. We repurchased 3.1 million shares of common stock for $266 million during the quarter for a total of 5.8 million shares repurchased fiscal year-to-date for $544.2 million, an increase of 30% compared to the same period a year ago.

    在本季度,我們支付了 7,910 萬美元的現金股息,我們的董事會已宣布將在 5 月份支付與上一季度相同水平的季度股息。我們在本季度以 2.66 億美元回購了 310 萬股普通股,本財年迄今以 5.442 億美元回購了 580 萬股,與去年同期相比增長了 30%。

  • Subsequent to quarter end, our Board authorized the repurchase of up to $1 billion of our common stock, replacing our prior authorization. The new authorization has no expiration date. We now expect to reduce our outstanding share count by 3% during fiscal 2022. We remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis and to reducing our outstanding share count each fiscal year. Jessica?

    在季度末之後,我們的董事會授權回購最多 10 億美元的普通股,取代了我們之前的授權。新授權沒有到期日。我們現在預計在 2022 財年將我們的流通股數量減少 3%。我們仍然致力於通過股息和股票回購持續向股東返還資本,並在每個財政年度減少我們的流通股數量。傑西卡?

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • As we look forward to the third quarter of fiscal 2022, we expect market conditions to continue to reflect strong demand from homebuyers with continuing supply chain challenges. We expect to generate consolidated revenues in our June quarter of $8.6 billion to $9 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in a range between 21,500 and 22,500 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin in the third quarter to be in the range of 29% to 29.5% and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues in the third quarter to be around 6.6%.

    在我們展望 2022 財年第三季度的同時,我們預計市場狀況將繼續反映出購房者的強勁需求以及持續的供應鏈挑戰。我們預計在 6 月季度將產生 86 億至 90 億美元的綜合收入,我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 21,500 至 22,500 套之間。我們預計第三季度我們的房屋銷售毛利率將在 29% 至 29.5% 之間,第三季度房屋建築 SG&A 佔收入的百分比約為 6.6%。

  • We anticipate a financial services pretax profit margin of approximately 40%, and we expect our income tax rate to be roughly 24% in the third quarter. For the full fiscal year, we expect to generate consolidated revenues of $35.3 billion to $36.1 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in a range of 88,000 to 90,000 homes.

    我們預計金融服務稅前利潤率約為 40%,我們預計第三季度的所得稅率約為 24%。在整個財政年度,我們預計將產生 353 億至 361 億美元的綜合收入,我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 88,000 至 90,000 套之間。

  • We forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2022 of roughly 24%, and we now expect that our share repurchases will reduce our outstanding share count by approximately 3% at the end of fiscal 2022 compared to the end of fiscal 2021. We still expect to generate positive cash flow from our homebuilding operations this year, and we will continue to balance our cash flow utilization priorities among our core homebuilding operations, increasing our rental inventories, maintaining conservative homebuilding leverage and strong liquidity, paying an increased dividend and consistently repurchasing shares. David?

    我們預計 2022 財年的所得稅稅率約為 24%,我們現在預計,與 2021 財年末相比,我們的股票回購將使我們在 2022 財年末的流通股數量減少約 3%。我們仍然預計今年從我們的房屋建築業務中產生正現金流,我們將繼續在我們的核心房屋建築業務中平衡我們的現金流利用優先事項,增加我們的租賃庫存,保持保守的房屋建築槓桿和強大的流動性,支付增加的股息並持續回購股票。大衛?

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • In closing, our results and positions reflect our experienced teams and production capabilities, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and diverse product offerings across our multiple brands. Our strong balance sheet, liquidity and low leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility to continue aggregating market share and effectively operating in changing economic conditions.

    最後,我們的業績和職位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊和生產能力、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及我們多個品牌的多樣化產品。我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和低杠桿為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性,以繼續積累市場份額並在不斷變化的經濟條件下有效運營。

  • We plan to maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of the company, which includes returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis. Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton team for your focus and hard work. We are incredibly well positioned to continue growing and improving our operations during the remainder of 2022 and in future years.

    我們計劃保持嚴謹的資本投資方式,以提高公司的長期價值,其中包括通過股息和股票回購持續向股東返還資本。感謝整個 D.R.霍頓團隊為您的專注和辛勤工作。在 2022 年剩餘時間和未來幾年,我們處於非常有利的地位,可以繼續發展和改善我們的運營。

  • This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

    我們準備好的評論到此結束。我們現在將主持問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Your first question for today is coming from Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

    您今天的第一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

  • Carl Edwin Reichardt - MD & Homebuilding Analyst

    Carl Edwin Reichardt - MD & Homebuilding Analyst

  • I think at the end of -- or in January, you talked about orders being flat, maybe up slightly in the quarter. They were down 10. Can you talk a little bit about the progression of orders over the course of the quarter? And when I'm assuming you recognize that the production side was not catching up and in fact, was deteriorating and you decided to slow order pace. Or is there a demand component to this as well?

    我認為在年底或 1 月份,您談到訂單持平,可能在本季度略有上升。他們下降了 10。你能談談本季度訂單的進展情況嗎?當我假設你認識到生產方面沒有趕上,事實上,正在惡化,你決定放慢訂單速度。或者這也有需求部分?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Carl, I think it was all our decision to slow sales orders based on production capacity. I think we saw and continue to see very good demand and more buyers, qualified buyers out there for our homes today when we release them for sale. But we did see during the quarter that our cycle times continue to extend, and we made the decision in several of our geographies to delay the release of homes until we could give a better delivery date to those customers and provide a better experience for them in the backlog process.

    卡爾,我認為這都是我們根據產能放慢銷售訂單的決定。我認為我們看到並繼續看到非常好的需求和更多的買家,當我們今天發布房屋出售時,有更多合格的買家購買我們的房屋。但我們確實在本季度看到我們的周期時間繼續延長,我們決定在我們的幾個地區推遲房屋的發布,直到我們可以為這些客戶提供更好的交付日期並為他們提供更好的體驗積壓過程。

  • So we saw a very strong demand in the quarter, but we did see the cycle times elongate. I think we added 2 weeks this quarter, unfortunately, and we wanted to make sure we did not create more buyers in backlog with an unhappy experience.

    因此,我們看到本季度的需求非常強勁,但我們確實看到週期時間延長了。不幸的是,我認為我們在本季度增加了 2 週,我們希望確保我們不會因為不愉快的體驗而導致更多的積壓買家。

  • Carl Edwin Reichardt - MD & Homebuilding Analyst

    Carl Edwin Reichardt - MD & Homebuilding Analyst

  • Great. And then you didn't discuss the Vidler Water transaction, and I would just like you to sort of an overview of the strategic rationale for that deal and whether or not this is a function of the assets related to water rights or if this is a business that you think potentially could grow?

    偉大的。然後你沒有討論 Vidler Water 交易,我只想讓你概述一下該交易的戰略原理,以及這是否是與水權相關的資產的功能,或者這是否是您認為可能增長的業務?

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • Sure, Carl. We put out pretty much what we're going to say about Vidler in the press release in terms of them owning a portfolio of premium water rights and other water-related assets across several of our Southwest markets that generally lack adequate supply. We mentioned the total value of the transaction is approximately $290 million, and we do expect it to close in the next month or 2. But considering it's subject to the successful completion of a tender offer, we don't have much more to say at this time, and I look forward to talking about that in coming quarters after it closes.

    當然,卡爾。我們幾乎在新聞稿中就 Vidler 發表了我們將要說的內容,因為他們在我們的幾個通常缺乏充足供應的西南市場擁有優質水權和其他與水相關的資產組合。我們提到交易的總價值約為 2.9 億美元,我們確實預計它會在下個月或 2 個月內完成。但考慮到要成功完成要約收購,我們在這一次,我期待在它關閉後的未來幾個季度談論這個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from John Lovallo with UBS.

    您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

  • John Lovallo - Senior US Homebuilding and Building Products Equity Research Analyst

    John Lovallo - Senior US Homebuilding and Building Products Equity Research Analyst

  • The first one is activity at some point will likely moderate given higher rates and higher prices. And the question I have, and I think the concern that some investors have is that if and when activity does moderate, how does this sort of change, if at all, your thoughts on capital allocation? I mean, will you sort of back off on -- take the foot off the pedal on buying land and maybe switch more towards share buybacks and things of that nature?

    第一個是考慮到更高的利率和更高的價格,活動在某個時候可能會放緩。我有一個問題,我認為一些投資者的擔憂是,如果活動放緩,那麼這種變化會如何改變,如果有的話,你對資本配置的想法?我的意思是,你會退後一步 - 放棄購買土地的踏板,也許更多地轉向股票回購和類似性質的事情嗎?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, John. We're always focused on aggregating market share, and we're positioning ourselves to continue to do that through any economic cycle. Certainly, at some point, impact of rates and the impact of affordability will have some impact on demand, and we certainly will adjust our capital allocation at that time. But we believe we're in a strong position to continue to grow. But certainly, those impacts on demand would impact our investment decisions in land at that point in time.

    謝謝,約翰。我們始終專注於匯總市場份額,並且我們將自己定位為在任何經濟周期中繼續做到這一點。當然,在某個時候,利率的影響和負擔能力的影響會對需求產生一些影響,屆時我們肯定會調整我們的資本配置。但我們相信我們有能力繼續增長。但可以肯定的是,這些對需求的影響會影響我們當時在土地上的投資決策。

  • John Lovallo - Senior US Homebuilding and Building Products Equity Research Analyst

    John Lovallo - Senior US Homebuilding and Building Products Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. That's good to hear. And then on the option percentage getting up to 77%, I mean, that's much higher than think anyone thought it when the Forestar acquisition occurred and (inaudible) going back a few years ago, I mean, could this get much closer to, call it, 90%. And that's just a random number, but just 90% plus getting closer to what NBR does? And how does this impact the strategy with Forestar as it's grown and become spread across a lot of your communities? I mean you do have the option to bring that ownership position down pretty significantly and still maintain the favorable contract terms. So just curious how you're thinking about Forestar longer term.

    好的。聽起來還不錯。然後期權百分比上升到 77%,我的意思是,這比人們在收購 Forestar 時想像的要高得多,而且(聽不清)可以追溯到幾年前,我的意思是,這是否可以更接近,打電話它,90%。這只是一個隨機數,但只有 90% 以上接近 NBR 的功能?隨著 Forestar 的發展並擴展到您的許多社區,這對它的戰略有何影響?我的意思是你確實可以選擇大幅降低所有權頭寸,同時仍然保持有利的合同條款。所以只是好奇你如何看待Forestar的長期。

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • From the overall auction lot percentage, we have been focused on it. We're going to continue to focus on it. There is -- obviously, it's going to be capped at 100%. But our goal is just to continue to get better and more efficient and as to Forestar, very happy with Forestar. I mean -- at some point, yes, it will deconsolidate. But there's still a lot of markets that we think we can help scale Forestar into and if you look at just the earnings we're making, our shareholders are making of Forestar. It's a very good investment and kind of not a bad place to be -- but yes, at some point, it will deconsolidate, but it's more geared toward their platform build-out than it is our desire to liquidate some percentage of our shares.

    從整體拍賣手數百分比來看,我們一直專注於它。我們將繼續關注它。有 - 顯然,它將被限制在 100%。但我們的目標只是繼續變得更好、更高效,對於 Forestar,我們對 Forestar 非常滿意。我的意思是——在某個時候,是的,它會分崩離析。但是,我們認為我們仍然可以幫助將 Forestar 擴展到很多市場,如果您只看我們正在賺取的收益,我們的股東正在為 Forestar 製造。這是一項非常好的投資,而且是一個不錯的地方——但是是的,在某些時候,它會分拆,但它更適合於他們的平台建設,而不是我們清算一定比例股份的願望。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

    您今天的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

  • Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

    Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

  • Congratulations on the strong results. Obviously, with the big rise in rates, everyone's concerned that things are going to slow. I think John mentioned that that's people's expectations. I guess -- 2 questions with respect to the rise in rates. One is, is there anything that you are planning in terms of the communities, which would likely come online in the next year or 2, let's say, the next year, new communities opening.

    祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。顯然,隨著利率的大幅上漲,每個人都擔心事情會放緩。我認為約翰提到這是人們的期望。我猜——關於利率上升的兩個問題。一個是,您在社區方面是否有任何計劃,可能會在明年或 2 年內上線,比如說,明年,新社區開放。

  • Where you're making adjustments to your planned home sizes, amenity levels or anything like that? And would that have an impact on the gross margin? And then secondly, can you just sort of talk about why do you think we have not seen in your communities despite obviously affordability of being more true. Why do you think we haven't seen it yet in terms of your conversations with customers, do you -- are they -- can you talk about the role of rate locks? Or just anything that would be helpful for understanding why we maybe haven't seen anything yet?

    你在哪裡調整你計劃的房屋大小、舒適度或類似的東西?這會對毛利率產生影響嗎?其次,您能否談談為什麼您認為我們在您的社區中沒有看到,儘管顯然可以負擔得起更真實的情況。為什麼您認為我們還沒有在您與客戶的對話中看到它,您是否——他們是——您能談談費率鎖定的作用嗎?或者只是任何有助於理解為什麼我們可能還沒有看到任何東西的東西?

  • Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Stephen, I think to your first question, in terms of community design, plan design, I think we are going to continue to focus the affordable range and work towards those buyers. I don't see a significant change in how we build, what we build. But if it continues to be a push on affordability, then we'll put the appropriate homes in place. It may mean some smaller homes, but not a significant shift from where we are today. In terms of -- in our communities and in our sales offices, certainly, there is a concern from the buying public over rates but selling later in the process like we do.

    斯蒂芬,我認為關於你的第一個問題,在社區設計、計劃設計方面,我認為我們將繼續關注可負擔範圍並為這些買家工作。我沒有看到我們構建的方式和構建的內容髮生重大變化。但如果它繼續推動可負擔性,那麼我們將安置合適的房屋。這可能意味著一些較小的房屋,但與我們今天的情況相比沒有重大轉變。就 - 在我們的社區和我們的銷售辦事處而言,購買公眾當然會擔心價格,但會像我們一樣在稍後的過程中出售。

  • We don't have as much exposure as we could if we were selling far out to the shifts in rate conditions. And that's why we've continued to restrict our sales to a later time frame. So that we're putting people in backlog at closer to the rate that they're going to close at.

    如果我們因利率條件的變化而拋售,我們就沒有盡可能多的風險敞口。這就是為什麼我們繼續將銷售限制在以後的時間範圍內。因此,我們以接近他們將要關閉的速度將人們放在積壓中。

  • Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

    Stephen Kim - Senior MD & Head of Housing Research Team

  • That makes a lot of sense. In this quarter, can you give us a sense for how many of your closings were done with a rate lock that the closings I'm referring to, not the orders?

    這很有意義。在本季度,您能否告訴我們有多少交易是通過我所指的交易而非訂單的利率鎖定完成的?

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • Yes. So I looked at it actually on a forward-looking basis, and we have essentially -- in our next month, so April, 100% locked. And then as you would expect that percentage ticks down, but it's the majority of the quarter's closings that are locked and you got to get to 4-plus months out before that's a more de minimis percentage.

    是的。所以我實際上是在前瞻性的基礎上看待它,我們基本上 - 在我們的下個月,也就是四月,100% 鎖定。然後,正如您所期望的那樣,該百分比會下降,但是該季度的大部分收盤價都被鎖定,並且您必須等待 4 個多月才能達到最低百分比。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Ivy Zelman with Zelman & Associates.

    您今天的下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Ivy Zelman。

  • Ivy Lynne Zelman - Co-Founder, CEO & Principal

    Ivy Lynne Zelman - Co-Founder, CEO & Principal

  • Congrats on the strong results. Maybe you guys can just give us some perspective on the rental business with both the merchant build single-family rental communities as well as your multifamily projects. Can you talk about how many of them you're developing them are already presold. And have you seen any changes in valuation as it relates to selling with the surge in rates as we hear chatter that values at least within multifamily have really started to be pressured. And just the overall buying appetite that's out there with so much capital still appears to be chasing this asset class?

    恭喜取得了不錯的成績。也許你們可以給我們一些關於租賃業務的看法,包括商家建立的單戶租賃社區以及您的多戶項目。你能談談你正在開發的其中有多少已經預售嗎?你有沒有看到任何與銷售相關的估值變化,因為我們聽到有人喋喋不休地說至少在多戶家庭內部的價值真的開始受到壓力。僅僅是擁有如此多資金的整體購買意願似乎仍在追逐這一資產類別嗎?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Thank you, Ivy. We do see a lot of very strong demand and strong execution on the pricing. We do not sell any of our communities at this point during the development phase. We're selling them at -- in the lease-up phase at stabilization. So we're seeing still very good demand and very good pricing execution on those transactions that we have closed on. So current outlook, you would expect cap rates could be affected by rising interest rates, but we're also seeing very strong leasing demand and very strong rental growth, which certainly affect cap rate outlooks.

    謝謝你,艾薇。我們確實看到了很多非常強勁的需求和強大的定價執行力。在開發階段的這一點上,我們不出售我們的任何社區。我們在穩定的租賃階段出售它們。因此,對於我們已經完成的交易,我們仍然看到非常好的需求和非常好的定價執行。因此,目前的前景,您預計上限利率可能會受到利率上升的影響,但我們也看到非常強勁的租賃需求和非常強勁的租金增長,這肯定會影響上限利率前景。

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • And at a 40% to 50-plus percent margin on these sales if the market were to soften a bit, we still expect to generate very strong profits and returns.

    如果市場稍微走軟,這些銷售額的利潤率將達到 40% 到 50% 以上,我們仍然預計會產生非常強勁的利潤和回報。

  • Ivy Lynne Zelman - Co-Founder, CEO & Principal

    Ivy Lynne Zelman - Co-Founder, CEO & Principal

  • Great. And then just secondly, with respect to the delay in and obviously, the industry is impacted. Can you walk us through on the development side with municipalities, like specifically where that -- those components of the overall impact is related to like the difference versus sourcing materials because some materials are not a problem anymore. So everyone talks about it's a whack-a-mole, but what's it like on the development side as well as on the municipality side and how much of that is impacting the 2-month year-over-year increase in cycle time?

    偉大的。其次,就延遲而言,顯然,該行業受到了影響。您能否在市政當局的開發方面向我們介紹一下,特別是在哪裡-總體影響的那些組成部分與採購材料的差異有關,因為某些材料不再是問題。所以每個人都在談論它是一個打地鼠,但它在開發方面以及在市政方面是怎樣的?這對 2 個月的周期時間同比增長有多大影響?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Well, I think you've got certainly municipality challenges through the entitlement process in terms of bringing new lots to the market. And we still haven't seen full return of municipalities when you're talking about permitting and/or inspection process. So it certainly is impacting some of that as we work through the supply chain challenges, and then you finally move homes on to the next stage, it is -- we do see some delays in inspections and some of the municipality services that we were seeing. So it's certainly been part of the impact to our cycle time extension.

    好吧,我認為在將新地塊推向市場方面,您在授權過程中肯定會遇到市政挑戰。當您談論許可和/或檢查過程時,我們仍然沒有看到市政當局完全回歸。因此,當我們應對供應鏈挑戰時,它肯定會影響其中的一些,然後你最終將房屋轉移到下一階段,這是 - 我們確實看到檢查和一些市政服務出現延誤.因此,這肯定是對我們的周期時間延長產生影響的一部分。

  • Ivy Lynne Zelman - Co-Founder, CEO & Principal

    Ivy Lynne Zelman - Co-Founder, CEO & Principal

  • And let me just sneak in 1 last one, if I could. Just with respect to the inflation that we've seen. Can you be more specific on recognizing your land is predominantly controlled via option. Like what has changed on the pricing to tying up and controlling land? And how much overall or a lot of inflation that you are buying outright? Are you seeing relative to a year ago? And maybe to be just general because it's obviously different by market.

    如果可以的話,讓我潛入最後一個。就我們所看到的通貨膨脹而言。您能否更具體地說明您的土地主要是通過選項控制的。像捆綁和控制土地的定價發生了什麼變化?您直接購買了多少總體或多少通貨膨脹?你看到的是一年前的親戚嗎?也許只是籠統的,因為它顯然因市場而異。

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • I'd say the overall land market has tracked the sales price of homes. So it is good to be in a position where we control 550,000 lots at prices contracted 2 years ago, 3 years ago, 4 years ago and not be in a position today where we have to go buy something. So we are looking at that. We're monitoring it. I believe liquidity is going to drive market share gains and the ability to not be at risk of credit markets and/or banks is a huge competitive advantage for us. And we're going to protect that. We're going to be conservative in our land searches. I mean, there are good deals out there that we put under contract this year that we will take to close.

    我想說整個土地市場已經跟踪了房屋的銷售價格。因此,我們以 2 年前、3 年前、4 年前的合約價格控制 550,000 手,而不是今天我們必須去買東西的位置,這是很好的。所以我們正在研究這一點。我們正在監控它。我相信流動性將推動市場份額的增長,而不受信貸市場和/或銀行風險的能力對我們來說是一個巨大的競爭優勢。我們將保護它。我們將在土地搜索中保持保守。我的意思是,我們今年簽訂了合同,我們將完成一些很好的交易。

  • But we are not in a position where we have to go buy anything. And we're going to, I think, see a significant benefit of that as we proceed through this market.

    但我們沒有必要去買任何東西。我認為,當我們進入這個市場時,我們將看到一個顯著的好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

    您今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

  • Matthew Adrien Bouley - VP

    Matthew Adrien Bouley - VP

  • Just another question on what you do from a sort of medium-term perspective from what you can control in a scenario where housing activity were to slow, as we're talking about this morning, what does D.R. Horton do from a supply perspective? To what degree does sort of your own plans for community replenishment or starts kind of flex with these changes in interest rates and demand, just thinking again kind of medium-term sort of annual volume growth? How should we think about how you all are viewing that?

    另一個問題是,從中期的角度來看,在房地產活動放緩的情況下,你可以控制什麼,就像我們今天早上討論的那樣,D.R.霍頓從供應角度做什麼?您自己的社區補充計劃在多大程度上會隨著利率和需求的變化而開始靈活調整,只是再次考慮中期的年銷量增長?我們應該如何思考你們所有人是如何看待它的?

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Matt, we're very much a bottom-up community level driven company, and we're going to evaluate demand we see at each individual community and submarket and look for home starts to match that demand that our local operators are seeing. And that couples with community replacement needs in those submarkets based upon demand we see in real time in the field. So in the near term, we'll continue to adjust starts. In the more medium term, we'll look at subdivision openings and phase sizing. And then as well as Paul touched on before, we may be adjusting some product to some smaller sizes, if that's appropriate for the given market.

    馬特,我們是一家自下而上的社區驅動型公司,我們將評估我們在每個社區和子市場看到的需求,並尋找與我們當地運營商看到的需求相匹配的家庭開始。根據我們在現場實時看到的需求,這與這些子市場的社區更換需求相結合。所以在短期內,我們將繼續調整開局。在更中期,我們將關注細分開口和階段規模。然後就像保羅之前提到的那樣,如果這適合給定的市場,我們可能會將一些產品調整為更小的尺寸。

  • Matthew Adrien Bouley - VP

    Matthew Adrien Bouley - VP

  • Got you. Okay. That's very helpful. And then secondly, just zooming in back to the very near term, I think you've seen maybe in some of the housing data, maybe a little bit in our own survey work, it seems like some trends in the housing market might have become a little more choppy in recent weeks, perhaps not surprising given the move in interest rates.

    得到你。好的。這很有幫助。其次,只是回到非常近期的情況,我想你可能已經在一些住房數據中看到了,也可能在我們自己的調查工作中看到了一些,看起來住房市場的一些趨勢可能已經成為最近幾週波動更大,考慮到利率的變化,這也許並不令人意外。

  • But just anything you're seeing kind of on the leading edge on the margin whether that's any sort of pockets of changes in demand or again, incentives appearing and various markets? Just anything you're kind of seeing later into March and into April?

    但是,您所看到的任何處於邊緣領先地位的東西,無論是需求的任何形式的變化,還是再次出現的激勵措施和各種市場?只是你在三月晚些時候和四月看到的任何東西?

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • The rate increase is -- it's eliminating some people from the home buying experience. But we still have more people -- qualified buyers trying to buy homes than we can produce today. One of the things that really, I think, has impressed me back in 2018 when you saw a rapid rise in rates, demand just was significantly reduced. And then after the rate shock to -- after the rate shock was kind of mitigated, we saw demand come back and come back strong. But through this cycle, which is in even more rapid rate increases, yes, we've had people that don't qualify anymore, but the demand side is still very strong. So just the desire to own homes, and it may be the fact that prices have escalated very fast and rents are escalating even faster than the price of new homes and all the talk about inflation and then locking in your housing costs for 20 years.

    加息是 - 它正在消除一些人的購房體驗。但是我們仍然有更多的人——合格的買家試圖購買房屋,而不是我們今天所能生產的。我認為,真正讓我印象深刻的一件事是在 2018 年,當時你看到利率迅速上漲,需求顯著減少。然後在利率衝擊之後 - 在利率衝擊有所緩解之後,我們看到需求回升並強勢回升。但是通過這個週期,這是一個更快的利率增長,是的,我們有一些人不再符合條件,但需求方面仍然非常強勁。所以只是想擁有自己的房子,這可能是因為價格上漲得非常快,租金上漲的速度甚至超過了新房的價格以及所有關於通貨膨脹的討論,然後將你的住房成本鎖定了 20 年。

  • I mean it is home ownership is a cherished thing today. And the people coming out of the millennials coming out or even individuals relocating from other markets to kind of where the growth is taking place. I just -- they want to own a home, they want to lock in their housing cost, and they want to get in the neighborhoods that they can raise families in.

    我的意思是,今天擁有房屋是一件值得珍惜的事情。千禧一代出來的人,甚至是從其他市場搬遷到正在發生增長的地方的人。我只是 - 他們想擁有一個家,他們想鎖定他們的住房成本,他們想進入他們可以養家糊口的社區。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup.

    您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Anthony Pettinari。

  • Anthony James Pettinari - Director & US Paper, Packaging & Building Products Analyst

    Anthony James Pettinari - Director & US Paper, Packaging & Building Products Analyst

  • Cancellation rates, I guess, picked up a 100 bps, maybe from record low levels. Would you characterize that as more kind of noise or maybe more clearly, customers no longer able to secure mortgages? Would you expect cancellations maybe decline again in 3Q if rates stay at their current level? And I think in the past, you've provided kind of a sensitivity analysis around sort of mid-single digit, high single-digit backlog that potentially could be at risk with 100 bp rise in rates. Any sort of thoughts on how that has shaken out now that we're above 5% now on rates?

    我猜取消率上升了 100 個基點,可能是從創紀錄的低位開始。您是否會將其描述為更多類型的噪音,或者更明確地說,客戶不再能夠獲得抵押貸款?如果房價保持在目前的水平,您是否預計第三季度取消率可能會再次下降?而且我認為在過去,您提供了一種關於中等個位數、高個位數積壓的敏感性分析,這些積壓可能會因利率上升 100 個基點而面臨風險。既然我們現在的利率已經超過 5%,那麼關於這種情況如何發生的任何想法?

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • Sure, Anthony. I mean we look at a 1% change in our cancellation rate is essentially flat. It's still abnormally low -- historically low. We typically run in the high teens to low 20s. And that's a can rate we're very comfortable running at. The main reason continues to be that buyers can't ultimately qualify for the home purchase. So that 15%, 16%, 17% wherever it falls out each quarter, really no concerns from us on that end.

    當然,安東尼。我的意思是,我們看到取消率 1% 的變化基本上是持平的。它仍然異常低 - 歷史低點。我們通常在 20 多歲到 20 多歲之間奔跑。這是一個可以讓我們非常舒服的運行速度。主要原因仍然是買家最終無法獲得購房資格。因此,每個季度無論跌幅為 15%、16%、17%,我們對此真的沒有任何顧慮。

  • In terms of the rate sensitivity analysis, we did run the same sensitivity as we've talked to each of the last few quarters. I think rates have already kind of run up to where that was run at a couple of weeks ago, as we prepped for this call, but it had only ticked up to, call it, roughly 10% of buyers and backlog today would be at risk.

    就利率敏感性分析而言,我們確實運行了與過去幾個季度的每個季度相同的敏感性。我認為,當我們為這次電話會議做準備時,費率已經達到了幾週前的水平,但它只上升到了,打電話吧,今天大約 10% 的買家和積壓訂單將在風險。

  • As I mentioned earlier in answer to another question, all of April is already rate locked if we're going through a mortgage company. So that piece wouldn't be at risk. And then we also would work to look to move people from a different loan product or see if they could document additional income. And then to kind of second some things that the guys have already said today, for those buyers that do unfortunately fall out because they can't qualify, there's no shortage of buyers behind them to take their place.

    正如我之前在回答另一個問題時提到的,如果我們通過一家抵押貸款公司,整個 4 月份的利率都已經鎖定。這樣那塊就不會有風險了。然後我們還將努力讓人們從不同的貸款產品中轉移出來,或者看看他們是否可以記錄額外的收入。然後是那些傢伙今天已經說過的一些事情,對於那些因為無法獲得資格而不幸失敗的買家,他們背後不乏買家來取代他們的位置。

  • Anthony James Pettinari - Director & US Paper, Packaging & Building Products Analyst

    Anthony James Pettinari - Director & US Paper, Packaging & Building Products Analyst

  • Okay. That's very helpful. And then just with higher rates, are you making any strategic shifts to target a different mix of buyers? Are you seeing buyers that you wouldn't normally talk to kind of moving down market to more affordable offerings and understanding your entire offering is fairly affordable, like which of your buyer types do you think is best positioned to maybe (inaudible) rising rates? Does it move up? Or any thoughts there?

    好的。這很有幫助。然後只是有了更高的利率,您是否會針對不同的買家組合進行任何戰略轉變?您是否看到您通常不會與之交談的買家正在將市場轉向更實惠的產品,並了解您的整個產品相當實惠,例如您認為哪種買家類型最適合(聽不清)利率上漲?它會向上移動嗎?或者那裡有什麼想法?

  • Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Paul J. Romanowski - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • We really haven't made any significant shift and don't see a need to as rates rise. It's -- it's going to be more of that shock to payment for folks when they have to reset maybe the size home or price that they can then qualify for. So we're going to catch those people that have been buying up that may fall down the price curve and/or size of home and still be able to pick them up in a majority of our communities. So no real shift in what we're doing with any of our buyer demographics. We're still seeing strong demand, as everyone's mentioned, across the spectrum.

    我們確實沒有做出任何重大轉變,而且隨著利率的上升,我們認為沒有必要這樣做。這是 - 當人們不得不重新設置他們可能有資格獲得的房屋大小或價格時,這將對人們的付款產生更大的衝擊。因此,我們將抓住那些一直在購買的人,這些人可能會在價格曲線和/或房屋規模下降的情況下,仍然能夠在我們的大多數社區中接手他們。因此,我們對任何買家人口統計所做的事情都沒有真正的轉變。正如大家所提到的,我們仍然看到各個領域的強勁需求。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question is coming from Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan.

    您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

  • Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

    Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

  • I just wanted to revisit the can rate, which I think as you mentioned, Jessica, essentially flat and extremely low. We've kind of thought of it as a key metric to understand the potential impact of the rate move over the last 60, 90 days. And I was curious if you've seen any change throughout the quarter, Obviously, it was up 100 basis points versus a year ago, and I think 100 basis points, I believe, sequentially. But anything throughout the quarter that maybe perhaps you ended the quarter at a higher number than at the beginning. And if there's been any change in April, curious around that.

    我只是想重新審視一下罐頭率,正如你提到的,傑西卡,我認為它基本上持平且極低。我們將其視為了解過去 60、90 天利率變動的潛在影響的關鍵指標。我很好奇你是否在整個季度看到了任何變化,顯然,它比一年前上升了 100 個基點,我認為依次上升了 100 個基點。但是整個季度的任何事情,也許你在季度結束時的數字都比開始時高。如果四月份有任何變化,對此感到好奇。

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • It really was relatively flat throughout the quarter, give or take, a 1% change. So sequentially, we were -- I guess we were both a year ago and in the last quarter, we were at 15%. This quarter, we were at 16%, and it was right around that range for the duration of the quarter.

    整個季度確實相對平穩,或多或少,變化了 1%。因此,我們依次是 - 我想我們一年前和上個季度都是 15%。本季度,我們為 16%,並且在本季度期間正好在該範圍內。

  • Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

    Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. Also, throughout the quarter, you kind of said that demand has remained strong, more demand than supply. I would presume then that as a result, your pricing power and the incentives that you've had in the marketplace really haven't changed at all. Obviously, your gross margins continue to improve. And you expect further margin improvement in the third quarter. Just wanted to make sure that was the case as well and if that was the case for yourselves as well as if you witnessed any changes in the broader marketplace.

    好的。此外,在整個季度,您都說需求保持強勁,需求多於供應。我會假設因此,您的定價能力和您在市場上擁有的激勵措施實際上根本沒有改變。顯然,您的毛利率繼續提高。您預計第三季度的利潤率會進一步提高。只是想確保情況也是如此,如果你自己也是這樣,以及你是否目睹了更廣泛市場的任何變化。

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Mike, we have seen consistent ability to raise prices through the quarter, seeing consistent increases in our sales order pricing that then flow through our backlog and through our closing pricing. That's what gives us the confidence to say that our margins are going to be slightly better next quarter because we can see those sales prices coming through in our closings in the next quarter. So to date, we have not seen a change in our ability to raise prices. I think naturally as we look for a little bit longer term with the impact of rates and impact of overall price increases. At some point, we would expect that to moderate. But at this point, we have not seen any signs of that as of yet.

    邁克,我們已經看到了整個季度持續提價的能力,看到我們的銷售訂單定價持續上漲,然後通過我們的積壓和收盤價流動。這就是讓我們有信心說下個季度我們的利潤率會稍微好一些的原因,因為我們可以看到這些銷售價格在我們下個季度的收盤時出現。所以迄今為止,我們還沒有看到我們提高價格的能力發生了變化。我自然認為,隨著利率的影響和整體價格上漲的影響,我們會尋找更長的時間。在某個時候,我們預計這種情況會緩和。但在這一點上,我們還沒有看到任何跡象。

  • Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

    Michael Jason Rehaut - Senior Analyst

  • Okay. One last quick one, if I could. Just the 3% reduction of year-end share count versus 2% previously. Sorry if I missed this earlier, but I just want to make sure, is that a function of a greater amount of dollars dedicated to share repurchase or in part driven by the recent reduction in share price in the market over the last couple of months?

    好的。如果可以的話,最後一個快速的。與之前的 2% 相比,年終股票數量僅減少了 3%。抱歉,如果我早些時候錯過了這一點,但我只是想確定一下,這是為了回購更多的美元,還是部分受過去幾個月市場股價下跌的推動?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • A little bit of both, Mike. As we look at our capital allocation for the year, our expectations for how much we would utilize -- I mean dollars we would utilize on share repurchase has gone up versus our prior estimates. But then certainly, the current valuation of our stock does allow us to buy more shares per dollar as well. And so it's a little bit of both, and that's allowed us to increase our estimate from 2% reduction to a 3% reduction.

    兩者都有一點,邁克。當我們查看今年的資本分配時,我們對我們將使用多少的預期——我的意思是我們將用於股票回購的美元與我們之前的估計相比有所上升。但可以肯定的是,我們股票的當前估值確實也讓我們能夠以每美元購買更多的股票。所以兩者都有一點,這使我們能夠將我們的估計從減少 2% 增加到減少 3%。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

    您今天的下一個問題來自杜魯門·帕特森(Truman Patterson)和 Wolfe Research。

  • Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

    Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up on one of John's questions previously. I realize that cycle times have been extended, you have 60,000 homes under construction, which ties up net working capital. But we're now halfway through the year. I'm just hoping you can give an update or possibly a number around your 2022 operating cash flow expectation.

    只是想跟進約翰之前的一個問題。我意識到週期時間已經延長,您有 60,000 套房屋正在建設中,這佔用了淨營運資金。但我們現在已經過半年了。我只是希望你能提供一個關於你 2022 年運營現金流預期的更新或可能的數字。

  • And then just on the capital allocation decision based on rates increasing, it seems like you're going to be a bit more -- or you're going to continue with programmatic share repurchase. But how do you balance this with potentially even increasing liquidity given all the commentary from the Fed and possibly having a rainy day fund, if you will?

    然後只是基於利率增加的資本分配決定,看起來你會更多 - 或者你將繼續進行程序化股票回購。但是,鑑於美聯儲的所有評論以及可能有一個未雨綢繆的基金,如果你願意的話,你如何平衡這與可能增加的流動性?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. It is a constant balance, Truman. We're not giving specific dollar guidance regarding our operating cash flow other than we do expect to generate positive cash flow from our homebuilding operations.

    是的。這是一個恆定的平衡,杜魯門。除了我們確實希望從我們的房屋建築業務中產生正現金流外,我們沒有就我們的運營現金流給出具體的美元指導。

  • On a consolidated basis, our operating cash flow also includes the investments we're making in our rental platform, which obviously are significant, increasing those by $1.5 billion this year. And then certainly 1 factor today that is tying up some of our capital is the extension of our build times being longer than 2 months longer than a year ago, certainly does tie up a significant amount of capital. But certainly, we are working towards stabilizing that and improving those cycle times, which we would expect to start to bring that cash back some towards the end of fiscal '22 and then certainly into fiscal '23.

    在綜合基礎上,我們的運營現金流還包括我們在租賃平台上的投資,這顯然是巨大的,今年增加了 15 億美元。當然,今天佔用我們部分資金的一個因素是,我們的建造時間比一年前延長了 2 個月以上,這確實佔用了大量資金。但可以肯定的是,我們正在努力穩定這一點並改善這些週期時間,我們預計這將在 22 財年末開始將部分現金帶回,然後肯定會進入 23 財年。

  • So it is a balance -- and as we plan our capital allocation, we plan our liquidity targets. We are just seeking to make sure we stay in as a strong and flexible position as possible to handle the -- what we see in the market today and position ourselves for further growth, aggregation and market share and generating returns to our shareholders.

    所以這是一個平衡——當我們計劃我們的資本分配時,我們計劃我們的流動性目標。我們只是在尋求確保我們盡可能保持強大和靈活的地位來處理我們今天在市場上看到的情況,並將自己定位為進一步增長、聚合和市場份額,並為我們的股東創造回報。

  • Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

    Truman Andrew Patterson - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then 1 final one on just current market conditions. Just are you seeing any metros that are maybe a little bit slower than the others? And then for the buyers purchasing today, I realize this might be somewhat of an unfair question, but how long have they been in the market? Were they really searching before rates started to move -- or are we seeing incremental buyers continuing to come in after the higher rate environment that are kind of more recently entered, if you will.

    好的。然後是當前市場條件下的最後一個。只是您是否看到任何可能比其他地鐵慢一點的地鐵?然後對於今天購買的買家,我意識到這可能是一個不公平的問題,但他們在市場上多久了?他們是否真的在利率開始移動之前搜索 - 或者我們是否看到增量買家在最近進入的更高利率環境之後繼續進入,如果你願意的話。

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • Truman, I think on the markets, we see markets have varying levels of performance and demand, but they're all very strong. relative to where they've been. I mean certainly, the migration patterns within the country and the areas that are gaining population have incredibly strong demand but markets across our footprint, we still see more buyer demand than we have production capacity for today. And so we're still very encouraged by that. Some of those buyers have been in the marketplace for quite a while. Others are more recent entries, but we don't have any hard data we could share with you on how exactly long they've been conducting their search.

    杜魯門,我認為在市場上,我們看到市場有不同程度的表現和需求,但它們都非常強勁。相對於他們去過的地方。我的意思是,該國內部的遷移模式和人口增長的地區有著令人難以置信的強勁需求,但在我們的足跡市場,我們仍然看到買家的需求超過了我們今天的生產能力。所以我們仍然對此感到非常鼓舞。其中一些買家已經在市場上待了很長時間。其他是較新的條目,但我們沒有任何硬數據可以與您分享他們進行搜索的確切時間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Deepa Raghavan with Wells Fargo.

    您今天的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Deepa Raghavan。

  • Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Of the supply chain incremental headwinds, is there a way to think about how much we're Omicron-related? I'm assuming that should be probably behind us now and how much is kind of carry forward? I think where I'm going with it is, are you baking in any sequential improvement off of that 2 weeks elongated cycle time assuming there must have been some relief from Omicron.

    在供應鏈增量逆風中,有沒有辦法考慮我們與 Omicron 的關係有多少?我假設現在應該可能落後於我們,有多少是一種繼承?我想我要去的地方是,假設 Omicron 一定有一些緩解,你是否在這 2 周延長的周期時間內進行任何連續改進。

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • Yes, I think we would agree with you on the Omicron front. I mean there's certainly still labor challenges in labor and manufacturing facilities, distribution centers, it's still harder to come by, but it does seem to be slightly improving. Drivers continue to be a really big area of need to be able to get products to job sites.

    是的,我想我們會同意你在 Omicron 方面的看法。我的意思是,勞動力和製造設施、配送中心肯定仍然存在勞動力挑戰,仍然更難獲得,但似乎確實略有改善。驅動程序仍然是能夠將產品運送到工作現場的一個非常大的需求領域。

  • In terms of if we're baking in any incremental improvement in our build times, I think I would tell you for us to achieve the high end of our guidance range. And certainly to do any more of that, we would need to see improvement in our build times from what we've seen today. But we do feel like we're maybe in the early stages of that to where we felt comfortable still, although we lowered our closings guide. We did leave 90 in the range of closing 88 to 90 because we have the houses. It's just a matter of getting them completed and across the finish line with the buyer.

    至於我們是否在構建時間上進行任何增量改進,我想我會告訴您我們要達到我們指導範圍的高端。當然,要做到這一點,我們需要看到我們今天所看到的構建時間的改進。但我們確實覺得我們可能處於早期階段,我們仍然感到舒服,儘管我們降低了關閉指南。我們確實將 90 留在了 88 到 90 的範圍內,因為我們有房子。這只是讓他們完成並與買家一起越過終點線的問題。

  • Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Deepa Bhargavi Narasimhapuram Raghavan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Got it. Staying on the topic of the guide. I don't think you guided for the full year gross margins unless I missed it, but it does definitely look like you have some good tailwinds that can extend into Q4 and give you some good gross margin visibility. Do you want to provide any color on that for Q4?

    知道了。停留在指南的主題上。除非我錯過了,否則我認為您不會指導全年毛利率,但看起來您確實有一些可以延伸到第四季度的良好順風,並為您提供良好的毛利率可見性。你想為第四季度提供任何顏色嗎?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, we do only guide 1 quarter out on gross margin, but I would agree with you that currently, we do have some tailwinds with the average prices that have been in our backlog and in our recent sales orders that some of which will be homes that would close into Q4. I think we do have some tailwinds. But as we've said many times, our true visibility to margin really doesn't go far beyond the quarter. So we only guide specifically to Q3. But we do feel like we're still going to see very good gross margins through Q4 as well.

    是的,我們只指導 1 個季度的毛利率,但我同意你的觀點,目前,我們的積壓訂單和最近的銷售訂單中的平均價格確實有一些順風,其中一些將是房屋這將在第四季度結束。我認為我們確實有一些順風。但正如我們多次說過的那樣,我們對利潤率的真正可見性實際上並沒有超出本季度。所以我們只專門針對 Q3 進行指導。但我們確實覺得我們仍然會在第四季度看到非常好的毛利率。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

    您今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

  • Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

  • My first question is on the SG&A. I mean, obviously, the gross margin has been impressive, but so has your SG&A performance this year. You continue to come in well below where we are modeled and where you've guided to, can you talk to the potential to continue to see that coming down now that we're solidly in that 6% range? And maybe where we can get to over time there?

    我的第一個問題是關於 SG&A。我的意思是,顯然,毛利率令人印象深刻,但你們今年的 SG&A 表現也是如此。你繼續遠遠低於我們的模型和你指導的地方,你能談談繼續看到下降的潛力嗎,因為我們已經穩固地處於 6% 的範圍內?也許隨著時間的推移我們可以到達那裡?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Sue. Obviously, an important part of our culture and our business model. We are very focused on ensuring that we stay very efficient with our overhead while still making sure we're building our overhead and our infrastructure to support the growth. But with the price appreciation that we've seen alongside that, that has certainly aided in dropping the SG&A percentage as a percentage of revenue a bit faster.

    謝謝你,蘇。顯然,這是我們文化和商業模式的重要組成部分。我們非常專注於確保我們在開銷方面保持非常高效,同時仍確保我們正在構建開銷和基礎設施以支持增長。但隨著我們看到的價格上漲,這肯定有助於更快地降低 SG&A 佔收入的百分比。

  • And then honestly, than we would have modeled as well. And so we've been very pleased with that. Certainly, we want to make sure we continue to position ourselves adequately there. But with the prices that we have seen and that we see coming over the next quarter or so, we do expect to still see very good SG&A leverage with the guidance that we're providing for Q3, that assumes another 50 basis point year-over-year improvement in SG&A. So yes, we do see ourselves with an SG&A rate getting down into the 6s and for at least the near term staying there.

    然後老實說,比我們建模的還要好。所以我們對此非常滿意。當然,我們希望確保我們繼續在那裡充分定位自己。但鑑於我們已經看到的價格以及我們看到在下一季度左右到來的價格,我們確實預計在我們為第三季度提供的指導下仍會看到非常好的 SG&A 槓桿,假設全年再增加 50 個基點- SG&A 的年度改進。所以,是的,我們確實看到自己的 SG&A 率下降到 6s,並且至少在短期內保持在那裡。

  • Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

    Susan Marie Maklari - Analyst

  • Okay. All right. And then my second question is a bit longer term. David made the comment earlier around consumer confidence. And overall, the sort of desirability around homeownership today and how that perhaps is very different relative to where we were, certainly, coming out of the last cycle. Can you talk to what sustains that level of confidence in home ownership? And what that perhaps could mean even as rates do rise in terms of keeping that demand pool there and [peoples] willingness to sort of continue to extend and really try and make that effort to get into the home.

    好的。好的。然後我的第二個問題是一個長期的問題。大衛早些時候就消費者信心發表了評論。總體而言,今天圍繞房屋所有權的那種可取性以及相對於我們在上一個週期中出現的情況可能有很大不同。你能談談是什麼維持了對房屋所有權的這種信心嗎?即使在保持需求池和[人們]願意繼續擴大並真正嘗試並努力進入家庭的情況下,即使利率確實上升,這可能意味著什麼。

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • I just -- I've been doing this for a long time. And the desire to own a home is, I think, kind of an American or part of the American culture. It gives you a sense of safety and a nest to build your family. So I think the downturn in '08, '09, '10 where home values were just decimated, that put a big pause on the desire to own homes.

    我只是——我已經這樣做了很長時間了。我認為,擁有一個家的願望是美國人或美國文化的一部分。它給你一種安全感和建立家庭的巢穴。所以我認為 08 年、09 年和 10 年的低迷時期,房屋價值剛剛被大幅貶值,這讓擁有房屋的願望大打折扣。

  • I think as this cycle continues, and I think it's going to continue to elongate the housing formation, the desire to get close to neighborhood schools, all those things, it kind of returned home ownership to kind of the American dream again. So it's -- getting in a home today is harder. But it's not nearly as hard as it was when I bought my first home. So it's -- it feels like it's almost a cultural shift from -- or a return to family community and I think the demand is significantly higher than the homes that can be produced. So.

    我認為隨著這個週期的繼續,我認為它將繼續延長住房形成,靠近社區學校的願望,所有這些,它有點讓擁有房屋的人再次回到美國夢中。所以它 - 今天進入一個家更難。但這並不像我買第一套房子時那麼難。所以它 - 感覺這幾乎是一種文化轉變 - 或回歸家庭社區,我認為需求明顯高於可以生產的房屋。所以。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Jay McCanless with Wedbush.

    您今天的下一個問題來自韋德布什的 Jay McCanless。

  • Jay McCanless - SVP of Equity Research

    Jay McCanless - SVP of Equity Research

  • Just wanted to clarify, I think you've discussed this already, but the reduction in the closing guidance for the full year, that's not a shift to homes into the rental operation. That's just you guys slowing down production in the -- or slowing down orders in the field to keep up with production.

    只是想澄清一下,我認為您已經討論過這個問題,但是全年收盤指導的減少並不是將房屋轉向租賃業務。那隻是你們放慢了生產速度——或者放慢了現場的訂單以跟上生產。

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • It's -- when our homes are going to be completed and the ability to close those in what quarter, yes, there's no transition to build for rent in those numbers. We've kept our homebuilding for sale completely separate from what we're reporting on a rental basis.

    這是 - 當我們的房屋即將完工並且能夠在哪個季度關閉這些房屋時,是的,沒有過渡到建造這些數量的出租房屋。我們將待售房屋建築與我們報告的出租房屋完全分開。

  • Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

    Michael J. Murray - Executive VP & Co-COO

  • We have a plan for both businesses. One for the for-sale side of the business and one for the rent side of the business. And the change in the guidance has nothing to do with transitioning communities from one to another. It's solely dealing with completion of homes, putting the buyer into a completed good-looking house when that house is ready.

    我們對這兩個業務都有一個計劃。一個用於業務的出售端,一個用於業務的出租端。指南的變化與將社區從一個社區過渡到另一個社區無關。它只處理房屋的完工,當房子準備好時,將買家放入一個完整的漂亮房子。

  • Jay McCanless - SVP of Equity Research

    Jay McCanless - SVP of Equity Research

  • Got it. Okay. And then my second question, I think David earlier was talking about liquidity being the competitive advantage, especially with land prices moving up. I mean when does this lack of liquidity, I think, especially for some of the smaller private builders, when does that really force a bigger wave of M&A than what we've seen so far in post COVID?

    知道了。好的。然後我的第二個問題,我認為大衛早些時候談到流動性是競爭優勢,尤其是在土地價格上漲的情況下。我的意思是,我認為,尤其是對於一些較小的私人建築商而言,這種缺乏流動性的情況何時會真正推動比我們在 COVID 後迄今所見的更大的併購浪潮?

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • I don't know that it's going to force a larger M&A program. I do think that their inability to secure financing to move forward on different projects or even to start houses is going to open up market opportunity for us, both in our ability to aggregate market share on the home sale side and the ability to control longer and longer land positions at very favorable numbers. So it's a -- when you look at the impact of a 2-plus month expansion of our cycle time and what that's done to our liquidity and then I understand that we are still building houses much faster than anybody else, and we started at -- and are going to continue to protect a very strong liquidity position.

    我不知道這會迫使更大的併購計劃。我確實認為,他們無法獲得融資以推進不同項目,甚至無法開工,這將為我們打開市場機會,無論是我們在房屋銷售方面匯總市場份額的能力,還是控制更長時間和以非常有利的數量獲得更長的土地位置。所以這是一個 - 當你看到我們的周期時間延長兩個多月的影響以及這對我們的流動性所做的事情時,我明白我們仍然比其他任何人都更快地建造房屋,我們從 - - 並將繼續保護非常強勁的流動性頭寸。

  • It's -- I got to believe there's tremendous pressure on the -- especially the private builders. And at some point, these guys have made a lot of money over their careers. And they're guaranteeing loans. And at some point, you're just not going to put everything at risk. So I do think that's going to open up market share gains for us. And we are very well positioned to take those -- that market when it does open.

    這是——我必須相信——尤其是私人建築商面臨著巨大的壓力。在某些時候,這些人在他們的職業生涯中賺了很多錢。他們正在擔保貸款。在某些時候,你不會讓一切都處於危險之中。所以我確實認為這將為我們打開市場份額的增長。而且我們非常有能力接受那些開放的市場。

  • Jay McCanless - SVP of Equity Research

    Jay McCanless - SVP of Equity Research

  • Got it. That's great. And if I could sneak 1 more in. Bill was encouraged to hear that community count was up year-on-year sequentially. How are you guys feeling about that for the full year just on a percentage change basis?

    知道了。那太棒了。如果我能再偷偷摸摸 1 個。聽到社區數量逐年增加,比爾很受鼓舞。僅以百分比變化為基礎,你們對全年的感覺如何?

  • Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

    Bill W. Wheat - Executive VP & CFO

  • We're still looking at the low single-digit increase, but we -- yes, it has been good to see more communities get opened, starting to basically replenish our communities from -- we ran them down a bit early a year or 18 months ago. So still see a solid incremental increase in communities.

    我們仍在關注低個位數的增長,但是我們——是的,很高興看到更多的社區開放,開始基本上補充我們的社區——我們在一年或 18 歲的時候把它們跑掉了幾個月前。因此,仍然可以看到社區的穩步增長。

  • Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

    Jessica Hansen - VP of IR

  • And organic growth in our core markets is still going to be the biggest driver, but we did add a few more new markets to our market count this quarter. We're now in 104 markets and have another list of markets behind that, that we're planning to expand into as well.

    我們核心市場的有機增長仍將是最大的驅動力,但我們確實在本季度的市場數量中增加了一些新市場。我們現在在 104 個市場中,並且在這之後還有另一個市場列表,我們也計劃擴展到這些市場。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question for today is coming from Dan Oppenheim with Credit Suisse.

    您今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Oppenheim。

  • Dan Oppenheim

    Dan Oppenheim

  • Just a quick question. Given the success that you've had in terms of Express Homes taking share generally, what you're seeing in terms of buyers coming in from competition now and sort of just potentially market share for Express in this environment and how are you seeing that going out?

    只是一個快速的問題。鑑於您在 Express Homes 的總體份額方面取得的成功,您現在看到的來自競爭的買家以及在這種環境下 Express 的潛在市場份額以及您如何看待這種情況出去?

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • We cut out a little bit, Dan.

    我們刪減了一點,丹。

  • Dan Oppenheim

    Dan Oppenheim

  • Sorry, in terms of the gains for Express in terms of market share, given the efficiency of affordability there, how you're seeing that in terms of the -- what's happening to the consumer right now?

    抱歉,就 Express 在市場份額方面的收益而言,鑑於那裡的可負擔性效率,您如何看待 - 現在消費者正在發生什麼?

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • I think the ability to produce great value at the lower end is a tremendous advantage that we have. The bar pool significantly deeper, their qualification may be a little tougher. But as kind of referenced before, people really want to buy home and especially their first home. So I see that segment of our business just continue to get stronger. And whereas somebody may have pushed up and priced at a very low rate. We have a lot of first-time homebuyers buying in the Horton brand ultimately, it comes down a payment. And if their desires on the home in a very, very nice community location, our competitive advantage just gets better and better.

    我認為在低端創造巨大價值的能力是我們擁有的巨大優勢。酒吧池明顯更深,他們的資格可能更難一些。但正如之前提到的,人們真的很想買房,尤其是他們的第一個家。所以我看到我們業務的這一部分只會繼續變得更強大。而有人可能已經推高並以非常低的價格定價。我們有很多首次購房者購買 Horton 品牌,但最終還是需要付款。如果他們想要在一個非常非常好的社區位置的家,我們的競爭優勢就會越來越好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions. I would now like to turn the floor back over to David for closing remarks.

    女士們,先生們,這就是我們要提問的所有時間。我現在想請大衛發言結束髮言。

  • David V. Auld - President & CEO

    David V. Auld - President & CEO

  • Thank you, Holly. We appreciate everybody's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our third quarter results in July. And to the D.R. Horton family, Don Horton and the entire executive team, thank you and congratulate you on delivering an outstanding second quarter. We are incredibly well positioned today. You once again have proven you are the best of the best in this industry. Thank you.

    謝謝你,霍莉。我們感謝大家今天在電話會議上的時間,並期待再次與您交談,分享我們 7 月份的第三季度業績。和 D.R.霍頓家族、唐·霍頓和整個執行團隊,感謝並祝賀你們在第二季度取得了出色的成績。我們今天的位置非常好。你再次證明了你是這個行業中的佼佼者。謝謝你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's event. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝你們,女士們,先生們。今天的活動到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的電話線,並有一個美好的一天。感謝您的參與。