霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States.

早上好，歡迎參加 D.R. 的 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。霍頓，美國最大的建築商，美國最大的建築商。

I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations for D.R. Horton.

我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 投資者關係副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Holly, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the first quarter of fiscal 2022. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

謝謝你，霍莉，早上好。歡迎參加我們的電話會議，討論我們 2022 財年第一季度的業績。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。儘管 D.R. Horton 認為任何此類陳述均基於合理的假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的信息。霍頓在本次電話會議的日期和 D.R. Horton 不承擔任何公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K, which is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q later today or tomorrow. After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference.

有關可能導致性能發生重大變化的因素的其他信息包含在 D.R.霍頓提交給證券交易委員會的 10-K 表格年度報告。今天上午的收益發布可以在我們的網站investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃在今天晚些時候或明天提交我們的 10-Q。在本次電話會議之後，我們將在我們的投資者關係網站上的新聞和事件下的演示部分發布更新的投資者和補充數據演示文稿，供您參考。

Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our President and CEO.

現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 David Auld。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray and Paul Romanowski, our Executive Vice Presidents and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. The D.R. Horton team delivered an outstanding first quarter, highlighted by a 48% increase in earnings to $3.17 per diluted share. Our consolidated pretax income increased 45% to $1.5 billion on a 19% increase in revenues and our consolidated pretax profit margin improved 380 basis points to 21.2%. Our homebuilding return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended December 31 was 38.5%, and our consolidated return on equity for the same period was 32.4%. These results reflect our experienced teams, their production capabilities and our ability to leverage D.R. Horton's scale across our broad geographic footprint.

謝謝你，傑西卡，早上好。我們的執行副總裁兼聯席首席運營官 Mike Murray 和 Paul Romanowski 也加入了我的電話會議，我很高興；以及我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bill Wheat。 D.R. Horton 團隊在第一季度的表現非常出色，其收益增長了 48%，達到每股攤薄收益 3.17 美元。我們的綜合稅前收入增長 45% 至 15 億美元，收入增長 19%，我們的綜合稅前利潤率提高 380 個基點至 21.2%。截至 12 月 31 日的過去 12 個月，我們的房屋建築庫存回報率為 38.5%，同期我們的綜合股本回報率為 32.4%。這些結果反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、他們的生產能力以及我們利用 D.R.霍頓在我們廣泛的地理足跡上的規模。

Even with the recent rise in mortgage rates, housing market conditions remain very robust, and we are focused on maximizing returns while continuing to increase our market share. There are still significant challenges in the supply chain, including shortages in certain building materials and a very tight labor market. We are focused on building the infrastructure and processes to support a higher level of home starts while working to stabilize and then reduce construction cycle times to our historical norms.

即使最近抵押貸款利率上升，房地產市場狀況仍然非常強勁，我們專注於最大化回報，同時繼續增加我們的市場份額。供應鏈仍存在重大挑戰，包括某些建築材料短缺和勞動力市場非常緊張。我們專注於建設基礎設施和流程以支持更高水平的家庭開工，同時努力穩定並將建設週期時間縮短至我們的歷史標準。

After starting construction on 25,500 homes this quarter, our homes and inventory increased 30% from a year ago to 54,800 homes with only 1,000 unsold completed homes across the nation. Our January home starts and net sales orders were in line with our targets, and we are well positioned to achieve double-digit volume growth in 2022. We believe our strong balance sheet, liquidity and low leverage position us very well to operate effectively through changing economic conditions. We plan to maintain our flexible operational and financial position by generating strong cash flows from our homebuilding operations while managing our product offerings, incentives, home pricing, sales base and inventory levels to optimize returns.

在本季度開始建造 25,500 套房屋後，我們的房屋和庫存比一年前增加了 30%，達到 54,800 套，全國祇有 1,000 套未售出。我們 1 月份的房屋開工和淨銷售訂單符合我們的目標，我們有能力在 2022 年實現兩位數的銷量增長。我們相信，我們強勁的資產負債表、流動性和低杠桿使我們能夠通過變化有效運營經濟狀況。我們計劃通過從我們的住宅建設業務中產生強勁的現金流來維持我們靈活的運營和財務狀況，同時管理我們的產品供應、激勵措施、房屋定價、銷售基礎和庫存水平以優化回報。

Mike?

麥克風？

Earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 increased 48% to $3.17 per diluted share compared to $2.14 per share in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter increased 44% to $1.1 billion compared to $792 million. Our first quarter home sales revenues increased 17% to $6.7 billion on 18,396 homes closed, up from $5.7 billion on 18,739 homes closed in the prior year. Our average closing price for the quarter was $361,800, up 19% from the prior year quarter, while the average size of our homes closed was down 1%.

2022 財年第一季度的收益增長 48%，達到每股攤薄收益 3.17 美元，而去年同期為每股 2.14 美元。本季度淨收入從 7.92 億美元增長 44% 至 11 億美元。我們第一季度的房屋銷售收入增長了 17%，達到 67 億美元，關閉了 18,396 套房屋，高於去年關閉的 18,739 套房屋的 57 億美元。我們本季度的平均收盤價為 361,800 美元，比去年同期上漲 19%，而我們關閉的房屋的平均規模下降了 1%。

Paul?

保羅?

Our net sales orders in the first quarter increased 5% to 21,522 homes, while the value increased 29% from the prior year to $8.3 billion. A year ago, our first quarter net sales orders were up 56% due to the surge in housing demand during the first year of the pandemic when we had significantly more completed homes available to sell, and prior to the significant supply chain challenges we've experienced since. Our average number of active selling communities decreased 3% from the prior year quarter and was up 3% sequentially. Our average sales price on net sales orders in the first quarter was $383,600, up 22% from the prior year quarter. The cancellation rate for the first quarter was 15%, down from 18% in the prior year quarter.

我們第一季度的淨銷售訂單增長 5% 至 21,522 套房屋，而價值同比增長 29% 至 83 億美元。一年前，由於大流行的第一年住房需求激增，我們第一季度的淨銷售訂單增長了 56%，當時我們有更多的完工房屋可供出售，而且在我們面臨重大供應鏈挑戰之前經歷過。我們活躍銷售社區的平均數量比去年同期下降了 3%，環比增長了 3%。我們第一季度淨銷售訂單的平均銷售價格為 383,600 美元，比去年同期增長 22%。第一季度的取消率為 15%，低於去年同期的 18%。

New home demand remains very strong despite the recent rise in mortgage rates. Our local teams are continuing to sell homes later in the construction cycle so we can better ensure the certainty of the home close date for our homebuyers, with virtually no sales occurring prior to start of home construction. We plan to continue managing our sales pace in the same manner during the spring, and we expect our number of net sales orders in our second quarter to be equal to the same quarter in the prior year or up by no more than a low single-digit percentage. Our January home sales and net sales order volume were in line with our plans, and we are well positioned to deliver double-digit volume growth in fiscal 2022 with 29,300 homes in backlog, 54,800 homes in inventory, a robust lot supply and strong trade and supplier relationships.

儘管最近抵押貸款利率上升，但新房需求仍然非常強勁。我們的本地團隊將在施工週期的後期繼續出售房屋，因此我們可以更好地確保購房者的房屋關閉日期的確定性，在房屋建設開始之前幾乎沒有銷售發生。我們計劃在春季繼續以同樣的方式管理我們的銷售速度，我們預計我們第二季度的淨銷售訂單數量將與去年同期持平，或者增加不超過一個低點。位數百分比。我們 1 月份的房屋銷售量和淨銷售訂單量符合我們的計劃，我們有能力在 2022 財年實現兩位數的銷量增長，積壓 29,300 套房屋，庫存 54,800 套房屋，大量供應和強勁的貿易和供應商關係。

Bill?

賬單？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the first quarter was 27.4%, up 50 basis points sequentially from the September quarter. The increase in our gross margin from September to December reflects the broad strength of the housing market. The strong demand for homes combined with a limited supply has allowed us to continue to raise prices and maintain a very low level of sales incentives in most of our communities.

我們第一季度房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 27.4%，比 9 月季度環比增長 50 個基點。從 9 月到 12 月，我們的毛利率上升反映了房地產市場的廣泛實力。對房屋的強勁需求加上有限的供應使我們能夠繼續提高價格，並在我們的大多數社區保持非常低的銷售激勵水平。

On a per square foot basis, our home sales revenues were up 3.4% sequentially while our cost of sales per square foot increased 2.9%. We expect our construction and lot costs will continue to increase. However, with the strength of today's market conditions, we expect to offset most cost pressures with price increases in the near term. We currently expect our home sales gross margin in the second quarter to be similar to or slightly better than the first quarter.

按每平方英尺計算，我們的房屋銷售收入環比增長 3.4%，而每平方英尺的銷售成本增長 2.9%。我們預計我們的建設和地段成本將繼續增加。然而，鑑於當今市場狀況的強勁，我們預計短期內將通過價格上漲來抵消大部分成本壓力。我們目前預計我們第二季度的房屋銷售毛利率將與第一季度相似或略好。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

In the first quarter, homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 7.5%, down 40 basis points from 7.9% in the prior year quarter. Our homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was lower than any first quarter in our history, and we remain focused on controlling our SG&A while ensuring our infrastructure adequately supports our business.

第一季度，住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 7.5%，比去年同期的 7.9% 下降了 40 個基點。我們的房屋建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比低於我們歷史上任何第一季度，我們仍然專注於控制我們的 SG&A，同時確保我們的基礎設施充分支持我們的業務。

Paul?

保羅?

We have increased our housing inventory in response to the strength of demand and are focused on expanding our production capabilities further. We started 25,500 homes during the quarter, up 12% from the first quarter last year, bringing our trailing 12-month starts to 94,200 homes. We ended the quarter with 54,800 homes in inventory, up 30% from a year ago. 25,600 of our total homes at December 31 were unsold, of which only 1,000 were completed.

為了應對需求的強勁，我們增加了住房庫存，並專注於進一步擴大我們的生產能力。我們在本季度開工了 25,500 套房屋，比去年第一季度增長了 12%，使我們過去 12 個月的開工量達到 94,200 套。我們在本季度末有 54,800 套房屋庫存，比一年前增長 30%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們共有 25,600 套房屋未售出，其中只有 1,000 套已完工。

Our average cycle or average construction cycle time for homes closed in the first quarter has increased by almost 2 weeks since our fourth quarter and 2 months from a year ago. Although we have not seen much improvement in the supply chain yet, we are focused on working to stabilize and then reduce our construction cycle times to historical norms.

自第四季度以來，我們第一季度關閉房屋的平均週期或平均建設週期時間增加了近 2 週，比一年前增加了 2 個月。儘管我們還沒有看到供應鏈有太大的改善，但我們專注於努力穩定，然後將我們的建設週期時間縮短到歷史標準。

Mike?

麥克風？

At December 31, our homebuilding lot position consisted of approximately 550,000 lots, of which 24% were owned and 76% were controlled through purchase contracts. 23% of our total owned lots are finished and at least 47% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them. Our growing and capital-efficient lot portfolio is the key to our strong competitive position and is supporting our efforts to increase our production volume to meet demand. Our first quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $2.2 billion, of which $1.2 billion was for finished lots, $570 million was for land development and $390 million was to acquire land.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的房屋建築地塊頭寸包括約 550,000 塊地塊，其中 24% 為自有，76% 通過購買合同控制。我們擁有的總地塊中有 23% 已經完工，我們控制的地塊中至少有 47% 已經或將在我們購買它們時完工。我們不斷增長且具有資本效率的批次組合是我們強大競爭地位的關鍵，並支持我們努力增加產量以滿足需求。我們第一季度在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 22 億美元，其中 12 億美元用於完工地塊，5.7 億美元用於土地開發，3.9 億美元用於購置土地。

Paul?

保羅?

Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot manufacturer, operates in 55 markets across 23 states. Forestar continues to execute extremely well and now expects to grow its lot deliveries this year to a range of 19,500 to 20,000 lots with a pretax profit margin of 13.5% to 14%. At December 31, Forestar's owned and controlled lot position increased 33% from a year ago to 103,300 lots. 58% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with D.R. Horton or subject to a right of first offer based on executed purchase and sale agreements. $330,000 million of our finished lots purchased in the first quarter were from Forestar. Forestar is separately capitalized from D.R. Horton and had approximately $500 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt to capital ratio of 33.9%. With its current capitalization, strong lot supply and relationship with D.R. Horton, Forestar plans to continue profitably growing their business.

Forestar 是我們擁有多數股權的住宅地塊製造商，在 23 個州的 55 個市場開展業務。 Forestar 繼續執行得非常好，現在預計今年的地塊交付量將增加到 19,500 至 20,000 件，稅前利潤率為 13.5% 至 14%。截至 12 月 31 日，Forestar 的自有和控制地塊頭寸比一年前增加了 33%，達到 103,300 塊。 Forestar 擁有的 58% 的地塊與 D.R. 簽訂了合同。 Horton 或根據已執行的買賣協議享有優先要約權。我們在第一季度購買的成品中有 3300 億美元來自 Forestar。 Forestar 與 D.R. 分開大寫。 Horton 在季度末擁有約 5 億美元的流動性，淨債務與資本比率為 33.9%。憑藉其目前的資本化、強大的地塊供應以及與 D.R. 的關係。 Horton, Forestar 計劃繼續以盈利的方式發展他們的業務。

Bill?

賬單？

Financial services pretax income in the first quarter was $67.1 million with a pretax profit margin of 36.4% compared to $84.1 million and 44.9% in the prior year quarter. For the quarter, 98% of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations, and our mortgage company handled the financing for 66% of our home buyers. FHA and VA loans accounted for 44% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 721 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 88%. First-time homebuyers represented 55% of the closings handled by the mortgage company this quarter.

第一季度金融服務稅前收入為 6710 萬美元，稅前利潤率為 36.4%，而去年同期為 8410 萬美元和 44.9%。本季度，我們抵押貸款公司 98% 的貸款發放與我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋有關，我們的抵押貸款公司為 66% 的購房者處理了融資。 FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司總量的 44%。本季度通過 DHI Mortgage 發放貸款的借款人平均 FICO 得分為 721，平均貸款價值比為 88%。在本季度抵押貸款公司處理的交易中，首次購房者佔 55%。

Mike?

麥克風？

Our rental operations generated pretax income of $70.1 million on revenues of $156.5 million in the first quarter compared to $8.6 million of pretax income on revenues of $31.8 million in the same quarter of fiscal 2021. Our rental property inventory at December 31 was $1.2 billion compared to $386 million a year ago. We sold one multifamily rental property of 350 units for $76.2 million during the quarter. There were no sales of multifamily rental properties during the prior year quarter. We sold 2 single-family rental properties totaling 225 homes during the quarter for $80.3 million compared to one property sold in the prior year quarter for $31.8 million.

我們的租賃業務在第一季度的收入為 1.565 億美元，稅前收入為 7010 萬美元，而在 2021 財年同期的收入為 3180 萬美元，稅前收入為 860 萬美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的租賃物業庫存為 12 億美元。一年前3.86億美元。我們在本季度以 7620 萬美元的價格出售了一套 350 套的多戶型出租物業。上一季度沒有多戶出租物業的銷售。我們在本季度以 8,030 萬美元的價格出售了 2 處單戶出租物業，共計 225 套房屋，而去年同期則以 3,180 萬美元的價格出售了一處物業。

At December 31, our rental property inventory included $519 million of multifamily rental properties and $642 million of single-family rental properties. As a reminder, our multifamily and single-family rental sales and inventories are reported in our rental segment and are not included in our homebuilding segments, homes closed, revenues or inventories.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們的出租物業庫存包括 5.19 億美元的多戶出租物業和 6.42 億美元的單戶出租物業。提醒一下，我們的多戶型和單戶型租賃銷售和庫存在我們的租賃分部中報告，不包括在我們的房屋建築分部、已關閉的房屋、收入或庫存中。

In fiscal 2022, we continue to expect our rental operations to generate more than $700 million in revenues. We also expect to grow the inventory investment in our rental platform by more than $1 billion this year based on our current projects in development and our significant pipeline of future projects. We are positioning our rental operations to be a significant contributor to our revenues, profits and returns in future years.

在 2022 財年，我們繼續預計我們的租賃業務將產生超過 7 億美元的收入。根據我們目前正在開發的項目和未來項目的重要管道，我們還預計今年我們租賃平台的庫存投資將增加超過 10 億美元。我們將租賃業務定位為未來幾年為我們的收入、利潤和回報做出重要貢獻。

Bill?

賬單？

Our balanced capital approach focuses on being disciplined, flexible and opportunistic. During the 3 months ended December, our cash used in homebuilding operations was $115 million as we invested significant operating capital to increase our homes and inventory to meet the current strong demand. At December 31, we had $4.1 billion of homebuilding liquidity consisting of $2.1 billion of unrestricted homebuilding cash and $2 billion of available capacity on our homebuilding revolving credit facility. We believe this level of homebuilding cash and liquidity is appropriate to support the scale and activity of our business and to provide flexibility to adjust to changing market conditions.

我們的平衡資本方法側重於自律、靈活和機會主義。在截至 12 月的 3 個月中，我們用於房屋建設業務的現金為 1.15 億美元，因為我們投入了大量運營資本來增加我們的房屋和庫存，以滿足當前的強勁需求。截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 41 億美元的房屋建設流動資金，其中包括 21 億美元的不受限制的房屋建設現金和 20 億美元的房屋建設循環信貸額度的可用容量。我們認為，這種水平的房屋建設現金和流動性適合支持我們業務的規模和活動，並為適應不斷變化的市場條件提供靈活性。

Our homebuilding leverage was 17.3% at the end of December and homebuilding leverage net of cash was 6.9%. Our consolidated leverage at December 31 was 25.1% and consolidated leverage net of cash was 15.2%. At December 31, our stockholders' equity was $15.7 billion and book value per share was $44.25, up 29% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended December, our return on equity was 32.4% compared to 24.4% a year ago. During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $80.1 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level as last quarter to be paid in February.

截至 12 月底，我們的房屋建築槓桿為 17.3%，扣除現金後的房屋建築槓桿為 6.9%。我們在 12 月 31 日的綜合槓桿率為 25.1%，扣除現金後的綜合槓桿率為 15.2%。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的股東權益為 157 億美元，每股賬面價值為 44.25 美元，同比增長 29%。截至 12 月的過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率為 32.4%，而一年前為 24.4%。在本季度，我們支付了 8010 萬美元的現金股息，我們的董事會已宣布將在 2 月份支付與上一季度相同水平的季度股息。

We repurchased 2.7 million shares of common stock for $278.2 million during the quarter. Our remaining share repurchase authorization at December 31 was $268 million. We remain committed to returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis and to reducing our outstanding share count each fiscal year.

我們在本季度以 2.782 億美元的價格回購了 270 萬股普通股。我們在 12 月 31 日的剩餘股票回購授權為 2.68 億美元。我們仍然致力於通過股息和股票回購持續向股東返還資本，並減少每個財政年度的流通股數量。

Jessica?

傑西卡？

As we look forward to the second quarter of fiscal 2022, we are expecting market conditions to remain similar, with strong demand from homebuyers but continuing supply chain challenges. We expect to generate consolidated revenues in our March quarter of $7.3 billion to $7.7 billion and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in a range between 19,000 and 20,000 homes. We expect our home sales gross margin in the second quarter to be approximately 27.5% and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues in the second quarter to be approximately 7.5%. We anticipate the financial services pretax profit margin in the range of 30% to 35%, and we expect our income tax rate to be approximately 24% in the second quarter.

在我們展望 2022 財年第二季度的同時，我們預計市場狀況將保持相似，購房者的需求強勁，但供應鏈仍面臨挑戰。我們預計在 3 月季度將產生 73 億至 77 億美元的綜合收入，我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋數量將在 19,000 至 20,000 套之間。我們預計第二季度我們的房屋銷售毛利率約為 27.5%，第二季度房屋建築 SG&A 佔收入的百分比約為 7.5%。我們預計金融服務稅前利潤率在 30% 至 35% 之間，我們預計第二季度我們的所得稅率約為 24%。

For the full fiscal year, we continue to expect to close between 90,000 and 92,000 homes, while we now expect to generate consolidated revenues of $34.5 billion to $35.5 billion. We forecast an income tax rate for fiscal 2022 of approximately 24%, and we also continue to expect that our share repurchases will reduce our outstanding share count by approximately 2% at the end of fiscal 2022 compared to the end of fiscal 2021.

在整個財年，我們繼續預計將關閉 90,000 至 92,000 套房屋，而我們現在預計將產生 345 億至 355 億美元的綜合收入。我們預計 2022 財年的所得稅稅率約為 24%，我們還繼續預計，與 2021 財年末相比，我們的股票回購將使我們在 2022 財年末的流通股數量減少約 2%。

We still expect to generate positive cash flow from our homebuilding operations this year after our investments in home building inventories to support double-digit growth. We will then continue to balance our cash flow utilization priorities among increasing the investment in our rental operations, maintaining conservative homebuilding leverage and strong liquidity, paying an increased dividend and consistently repurchasing shares.

在我們對房屋建築庫存進行投資以支持兩位數的增長之後，我們仍然預計今年我們的房屋建築業務將產生正現金流。然後，我們將繼續在增加對租賃業務的投資、保持保守的房屋建設槓桿和強大的流動性、支付增加的股息和持續回購股票之間平衡我們的現金流利用優先事項。

David?

大衛？

In closing, our results reflect our experienced teams and production capabilities, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and diverse product offerings across multiple brands. Our strong balance sheet, liquidity and low leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility to capitalize on today's robust market and to effectively operate in changing economic conditions.

最後，我們的業績反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊和生產能力、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及跨多個品牌的多樣化產品。我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和低杠桿為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性，以利用當今強勁的市場並在不斷變化的經濟條件下有效運營。

We plan to maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital, to enhance the long-term value of the company, which includes returning capital to our shareholders through both dividend and share repurchases on a consistent basis. Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton team for your focus and hard work. We are incredibly well positioned to continue growing and improving our operations in 2022.

我們計劃保持嚴謹的資本投資方式，以提高公司的長期價值，其中包括通過一致的股息和股票回購向股東返還資本。感謝整個 D.R.霍頓團隊為您的專注和辛勤工作。我們非常有能力在 2022 年繼續發展和改善我們的運營。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

我們準備好的評論到此結束。我們現在將主持問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question for today is coming from John Lovallo with UBS.

（操作員說明）您今天的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 John Lovallo。

The first one, gross margins across the industry have risen to levels that are probably not sustainable over the longer term. I guess the question is, do you believe that this kind of mid- to high 20% margin range could persist at DHI for maybe a couple of years?

第一個，整個行業的毛利率已經上升到從長遠來看可能不可持續的水平。我想問題是，你認為這種 20% 的中高利潤率範圍可能會在 DHI 持續幾年嗎？

And then as we move forward, what has structurally changed in your opinion that would allow you to have trend margins that are maybe 100 to 200 basis points above the historical average?

然後，隨著我們向前發展，您認為哪些結構性變化會使您的趨勢利潤率可能比歷史平均水平高出 100 到 200 個基點？

Sure, John. We're very pleased with where our gross margins have gotten through this cycle, and certainly, the strength in the market has been a large driver of that. We probably would never sit here today and say that those are sustainable at these levels through cycles. Typically, gross margin does get somewhat competed away when markets soften. That being said, we're at extremely strong levels today and can still generate very strong returns even with some margin compression, and we'll continue to meet the market over time.

當然，約翰。我們對我們的毛利率在這個週期中的表現感到非常滿意，當然，市場的實力是其中的一個重要驅動力。我們今天可能永遠不會坐在這裡，說這些在這些水平上通過週期是可持續的。通常，當市場疲軟時，毛利率確實會受到一定程度的競爭。話雖如此，我們今天處於非常強勁的水平，即使在利潤率有所壓縮的情況下仍然可以產生非常強勁的回報，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續滿足市場需求。

In terms of what we believe is sustainable, though, compared to our historical averages, certainly, we're carrying less interest in our cost of sales today. And with what we've done from a deleveraging and our balance sheet focus, we would expect that to be a sustainable cost advantage. And then there's scale advantages with where we've gotten in terms of our volume and our building efficiencies with our labor trades and our material suppliers. We would expect some component of the scale advantages to be sustainable as well.

不過，就我們認為的可持續發展而言，與我們的歷史平均水平相比，當然，我們今天對銷售成本的興趣降低了。憑藉我們在去槓桿和資產負債表方面所做的工作，我們預計這將成為可持續的成本優勢。然後，我們在數量和建築效率方面與我們的勞務行業和材料供應商取得了規模優勢。我們預計規模優勢的某些組成部分也將是可持續的。

And John, we talked a little bit about this. Internally, we talk a lot about it. The industry is changing. It's just a much more disciplined industry than it was through the last cycle as we gained in market share, as the other publics gained in market share. There's just less -- at least in my mind, my expectation is, there'll be less volatility at this cycle up and down. It's just they're real businesses today, not speculators.

約翰，我們談了一點。在內部，我們談論了很多。行業正在發生變化。與上一個週期相比，隨著我們獲得市場份額，其他公眾獲得市場份額，這只是一個更加自律的行業。只是更少——至少在我看來，我的預期是，在這個上下週期的波動性會更少。只是他們今天是真正的企業，而不是投機者。

Yes, that makes a lot of sense. Okay. And then my second question, in an environment where rates are likely to rise here, what do you view as the strategic advantages of implementing a predominantly spec-focused building model and targeting entry-level buyers, perhaps maybe versus a build-to-order model targeting better-financed buyers?

是的，這很有意義。好的。然後我的第二個問題，在利率可能上升的環境中，您認為實施主要以規格為中心的建築模型和針對入門級買家的戰略優勢是什麼，也許與按訂單生產相比針對資金充足的買家的模型？

First of all, John, what we would say is that we're able to more closely time the application for the mortgage, the qualification for the mortgage and the closing of that mortgage. So the buyer is spending less time in backlog when they're buying a house that has already started the production process. That allows us to have fewer bad things happen to their potential credit profile where then they fall out of backlog and no longer qualify, less interest rate risk while they're in that cycle. And then finally, just a continued focus on affordability, I mean we're going to continue to seek to be affordable for our homebuyers and in our markets.

首先，約翰，我們要說的是，我們能夠更準確地確定抵押貸款申請、抵押貸款資格和抵押貸款關閉的時間。因此，當買家購買已經開始生產過程的房屋時，他們在積壓上花費的時間更少。這使我們能夠減少他們潛在的信用狀況發生的不良情況，然後他們就會因積壓而不再符合條件，從而在他們處於該週期時降低利率風險。最後，繼續關注可負擔性，我的意思是，我們將繼續尋求讓購房者和市場能夠負擔得起。

Your next question is coming from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自於 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

I was particularly intrigued by your comment about the number of homes you have under construction, 56,600, I think. And I think you also mentioned that your cycle time increased about 2 weeks. So correct me if I'm wrong, but that would imply, I think, that your time from start to close is about 7.5 months. First of all, is that correct?

我對你關於正在建設中的房屋數量的評論特別感興趣，我想是 56,600。而且我認為您還提到您的周期時間增加了大約 2 週。如果我錯了，請糾正我，但這意味著，我認為，你從開始到結束的時間大約是 7.5 個月。首先，這是正確的嗎？

Roughly, yes.

大致，是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. So if I think about your 56,600 homes and assume that you'll -- you assume basically a 7.5 month cycle time, that would imply that you should be able to close 45,280 over the next 2 quarters. Your guidance for the second -- this next quarter is, I think, for 19,000 to 20,000 homes, so considerably less than half of that amount. And so I'm curious as to -- is there anything wrong with the way I'm thinking about how your homes on your construction should ultimately result in closings over the next 2 quarters, given your cycle time is 7.5 months? And if therefore, we should be thinking that there might be an acceleration in 3Q closings on that basis? Or if your -- if this represents some conservatism about extending cycle times?

是的。因此，如果我考慮您的 56,600 套房屋並假設您將 - 您基本上假設週期時間為 7.5 個月，這意味著您應該能夠在接下來的兩個季度中關閉 45,280 套。您對第二個季度的指導——我認為，下個季度是 19,000 到 20,000 套房屋，遠低於該數量的一半。所以我很好奇——考慮到你的周期時間是 7.5 個月，我在考慮你在建築上的房子應該如何最終導致在接下來的兩個季度關閉的方式有什麼問題嗎？如果因此，我們應該考慮在此基礎上可能會加速第三季度的收盤嗎？或者如果你的——如果這代表了一些關於延長周期時間的保守主義？

Thank you, Steve. I think one of the things you need to look at is how long those houses have been in production. We started a substantial number of those homes in the most recent quarter. I think we stepped up our starts from Q4 to Q1 by about 3,000 homes. So those homes are obviously going to take a little longer to deliver in the process.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。我認為你需要看的一件事是這些房子已經生產了多長時間。我們在最近一個季度開始建造大量此類房屋。我認為我們從第四季度到第一季度增加了大約 3,000 個家庭。因此，這些房屋顯然需要更長的時間才能交付。

And as we're looking at the remainder of the year, the guidance we're providing for Q2 is based on where the homes are in construction today. But yes, as we look at the full year based on when we started the homes, and we look at where our guidance is for the full year, we are a bit more back-end loaded in terms of our closings in Q3 and Q4 than historically. We are part of that is because of the elongated construction times that we have not seen improve yet, and it's based on where our homes in construction currently set in terms of the construction cycle.

當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我們為第二季度提供的指導是基於今天房屋在建的位置。但是，是的，當我們根據我們開始房屋的時間來查看全年，並且我們查看全年的指導時，我們在第三季度和第四季度的關閉方面的後端負載比歷史上。我們是其中的一部分，因為我們還沒有看到延長的建設時間，而且它基於我們目前在建設中的房屋在建設週期方面的設定。

Yes. Great. That's very helpful. My second question relates to your initiatives in the rental area, which I think is -- you've talked about growing that inventory, and therefore, I would assume the associated revenues pretty significantly on a longer-term basis. My question is twofold: one, is there a rule of thumb that we could think what -- let's say, every $1 billion of inventory on a steady-state basis might yield in terms of a level of revenues that we could be forecasting?

是的。偉大的。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題與您在租賃領域的舉措有關，我認為是 - 您已經談到增加庫存，因此，我會假設相關收入在長期基礎上相當顯著。我的問題有兩個：第一，有沒有一個經驗法則可以讓我們思考——比如說，在穩態基礎上，每 10 億美元的庫存可能會產生我們可以預測的收入水平嗎？

And then secondly, conceptually, do you think that the demand for selling your rental properties is likely to be more resilient in the face of a rising rate environment than perhaps sales to folks who would be looking to actually move in? I know that's your core business, but nevertheless, there is so much concern that many people have about rising rates and the impact on the entry-level buyer that I was curious as to whether you felt like there was a backstop behind that buyer for rental operators that are sort of getting in line and would love to buy the homes that you're building for rent.

其次，從概念上講，您是否認為面對房價上漲的環境，出售出租物業的需求可能比出售給希望實際搬入的人的需求更有彈性？我知道這是您的核心業務，但儘管如此，許多人非常擔心利率上漲以及對入門級買家的影響，以至於我很好奇您是否覺得該買家背後有支持出租有點排隊的運營商，他們很樂意購買你正在建造的出租房屋。

Well, I'll start, Steve. I guess, first, we're still growing this business and learning this business. It's still a little bit early for us to be able to generalize on averages in terms of what level of revenue we might see per unit. We're building across our entire homebuilding footprint. So every property is unique in terms of size and the product and the market in which it's in. So we're individually underwriting each one relative to whether it's better for a for-rent community versus a for-sale community.

好吧，我開始吧，史蒂夫。我想，首先，我們仍在發展這項業務並學習這項業務。對我們來說，能夠就每單位可能看到的收入水平進行平均概括還為時過早。我們正在建設整個住宅建築足跡。因此，每處房產在規模、產品和所在市場方面都是獨一無二的。因此，我們會針對出租社區與待售社區是否更適合每處房產進行單獨承保。

Obviously, we've been very pleased with the value that we've been able to generate thus far and very excited about the opportunity of growing this business and adding value over time, and been very pleased with the demand that there has been for our communities thus far and the execution that we've seen in terms of our sales thus far.

顯然，我們對迄今為止能夠創造的價值感到非常滿意，並對隨著時間的推移發展這項業務和增加價值的機會感到非常興奮，並對我們的需求感到非常滿意迄今為止的社區以及迄今為止我們在銷售方面看到的執行情況。

Yes. And Stephen, we see such strong demand today for this product in this low interest rate environment. And I think to your question of if we see rates tick up, do we see that shift? We like the ability to be in the market with this rental platform and be able to adjust to those shifts and market conditions. We do believe that we're going to continue to see strong demand. Maybe not as strong as it is today with such a new category, but we feel good about our position and the number of communities we're planning.

是的。斯蒂芬，我們今天看到在這種低利率環境下對該產品的強勁需求。我認為你的問題是，如果我們看到利率上升，我們會看到這種轉變嗎？我們喜歡通過這個租賃平台進入市場並能夠適應這些變化和市場條件的能力。我們確實相信我們將繼續看到強勁的需求。有了這樣一個新類別，可能不像今天那麼強大，但我們對我們的地位和我們正在規劃的社區數量感到滿意。

Your next question is coming from Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

First question I had was on the SG&A side. You came in nicely below your prior guidance at 7.5% versus 8% before -- versus your 8% guidance and down 40 bps year-over-year. You're also guiding for, I guess, 2Q guidance to be down only 10 bps year-over-year. So I was just curious around what were the sources of the significantly better-than-expected results in the first quarter, and why you don't expect further leverage in the second quarter similar to the first?

我遇到的第一個問題是關於 SG&A 方面的。與之前的 8% 相比，您的 7.5% 遠低於您之前的指導，而您的指導為 8%，同比下降 40 個基點。我猜，您也在指導第二季度的指引同比僅下降 10 個基點。所以我只是好奇第一季度業績顯著好於預期的原因是什麼，以及為什麼你認為第二季度不會像第一季度那樣進一步提高槓桿率？

Sure. Thanks, Mike. In the current environment where we're seeing such significant average selling price increases. That's certainly one driver of the SG&A leverage on the P&L. A little difficult to predict exactly where the average ASP might fall in a particular quarter. The trend over time has been upward over the last several quarters, though, and that's certainly a contributor to it. So I would say, we're probably a little bit conservative in projecting out the level of increases in our ASPs.

當然。謝謝，邁克。在當前我們看到平均售價如此顯著上漲的環境中。這當然是 SG&A 對損益表的影響的驅動因素之一。很難準確預測特定季度的平均 ASP 可能下降的位置。不過，隨著時間的推移，過去幾個季度的趨勢一直在上升，這肯定是其中的一個原因。所以我想說，我們在預測我們的 ASP 的增長水平時可能有點保守。

We are very actively building infrastructure to support the significant increase in scale that we have seen across our business over the last year and that we're projecting for the rest of the coming year, and so we are anticipating significant increases in our SG&A spend to support that. And so we're just basically balancing that versus our expectations for our closings. And with our closings expectations essentially roughly flat with last year in Q2 based on our guidance, we're not getting the volume leverage, but we are still seeing the leverage from selling price increases.

我們正在非常積極地建設基礎設施，以支持我們在過去一年中看到的整個業務規模的顯著增長，並且我們預計來年餘下的時間，因此我們預計我們的 SG&A 支出將顯著增加支持那個。因此，我們基本上只是在平衡這一點與我們對關閉的期望。根據我們的指導，我們的收盤預期與去年第二季度基本持平，我們沒有獲得成交量槓桿，但我們仍然看到售價上漲帶來的槓桿。

Okay. Bill. So before I just hit on the second question, just to make sure I understand, given the expectation for the stronger revenue growth on a full year basis, it seems like it's safe to assume maybe more than like a 10 bps SG&A leverage for the full year. If I'm thinking about that right, given you have the higher confidence, let's say, around an ASP for the full year at least. If you could comment on that, that would be helpful.

好的。賬單。因此，在我提出第二個問題之前，為了確保我理解，鑑於對全年收入增長強勁的預期，假設可能超過 10 個基點的 SG&A 槓桿似乎是安全的年。如果我的想法是對的，假設你有更高的信心，假設至少全年的 ASP 左右。如果您可以對此發表評論，那將很有幫助。

And then secondly, just on the rental income side that was a source of upside, I believe, relative to our expectations. I believe relative to guidance as well, if I'm not mistaken. 45% of a margin, is that the right -- that 45%? Just any guidance or thoughts around how to think about the remainder of the year relative to the revenue generation you continue to expect?

其次，相對於我們的預期，我認為，就租金收入而言，這是一個上漲的來源。如果我沒記錯的話，我也相信相對於指導。 45% 的利潤，這對嗎——那 45%？關於如何考慮今年剩餘時間相對於您繼續預期的創收的任何指導或想法？

Okay. Well, first to wrap up the SG&A question. We're not guiding specifically to the full year on SG&A. However, with the kind of heavier volume expected in our annual guidance in Q3 and Q4, we would expect to see more leverage on SG&A probably than 10 basis points in Q3 and Q4 versus Q2.

好的。好吧，首先結束 SG&A 問題。我們沒有專門針對 SG&A 全年進行指導。然而，由於我們在第三季度和第四季度的年度指導中預計交易量會增加，我們預計第三季度和第四季度的 SG&A 槓桿率可能比第二季度高出 10 個基點。

With respect to the rental expectations, we've guided annually to more than $700 million of revenue. We've been very pleased with the margins and the executions we've seen on the sales here recently. The margin this quarter, obviously, was very strong. Some projects will continue to generate those margins, others could certainly be short of that. We haven't specifically guided to the margin on that business as of yet because each project is unique.

關於租金預期，我們每年指導的收入超過 7 億美元。我們對最近在這裡的銷售中看到的利潤率和執行情況感到非常滿意。顯然，本季度的利潤率非常強勁。一些項目將繼續產生這些利潤，而另一些項目肯定會不足。到目前為止，我們還沒有具體指導該業務的利潤，因為每個項目都是獨一無二的。

In terms of volume in the coming quarter, we would expect Q2 volume to be relatively similar to Q1, in which we closed 2 single-family properties and on multifamily property. And then for the year, basically lining that out to the $700 million of revenue.

就下一季度的交易量而言，我們預計第二季度的交易量將與第一季度相對相似，其中我們關閉了 2 個單戶住宅和多戶住宅。然後在這一年中，基本上將其與 7 億美元的收入相提並論。

Your next question is coming from Alan Ratner with Zelman.

您的下一個問題來自 Alan Ratner 和 Zelman。

Great quarter. First one, I might be parsing the comments a little bit too much here, so I just want to get some clarification. I think you guys said earlier that you expect to offset most cost increases with price increases. And obviously, up to this point, it's -- based on the margin trajectory, you've been able to offset more than the cost increases. So I'm just curious if that's a change in your thinking. Whether you're going to be maybe a little bit less aggressive pushing prices as '22 progresses? Or am I reading too much into that comment?

很棒的季度。第一個，我可能在這裡對評論進行了過多的解析，所以我只想澄清一下。我想你們之前說過，你們希望通過價格上漲來抵消大部分成本增加。顯然，到目前為止，基於利潤率軌跡，您能夠抵消的不僅僅是成本增加。所以我只是好奇這是否會改變你的想法。隨著 22 年的進展，您是否會不那麼激進地推高價格？還是我對那條評論讀得太多了？

I just -- Alan, as we continue to increase our starts for demand, I would say at some point, there's going to be more of an equilibrium. And at that point, the margins and ASPs should mitigate somewhat. We don't know. Again, we're a return base, absorption targets, start targets, being able to sustain a level of starts drives efficiencies through the entire process. We don't know what the future is. We do know that we can operate within that future and maximize the results, both returns and market share gains.

我只是——艾倫，隨著我們繼續增加我們的需求起點，我想說，在某個時候，將會有更多的平衡。到那時，利潤率和平均售價應該會有所緩解。我們不知道。同樣，我們是一個回報基地，吸收目標，啟動目標，能夠維持一定水平的啟動驅動整個過程的效率。我們不知道未來是什麼。我們確實知道，我們可以在這樣的未來內運營並最大化結果，包括回報和市場份額的增長。

And part of that thought process also, Alan, is our continued focus on affordability. And so although the market is really strong today and we continue to take price, we're probably not out there like some other builders trying to take every last dollar of price. We're doing what we can to meet the market and try to stay affordable in spite of rising cost conditions.

艾倫，這個思考過程的一部分也是我們繼續關注可負擔性。因此，儘管今天的市場非常強勁，我們繼續接受價格，但我們可能不像其他一些建築商那樣試圖接受最後一美元的價格。儘管成本條件不斷上升，但我們正在盡我們所能滿足市場並努力保持可承受的價格。

Got it. Both of that makes a lot of sense, and Jessica, your follow-on comment there was actually something I was going to ask next, and that's that your price increases, especially on the order side, have been very strong. And we're starting to hear from some builders talking about their desire to actually bring that average price back down a little bit over the next year or 2 as they introduce new communities. And maybe they're a little bit further out or maybe the floor plans are a bit smaller. So should we think about that similarly with you guys? Are you actually kind of looking at that average price and kind of your standing in the marketplace and trying to actually bring that down on at least an absolute basis going forward?

知道了。這兩點都很有意義，傑西卡，你的後續評論實際上是我接下來要問的問題，那就是你的價格上漲，特別是在訂單方面，非常強勁。我們開始聽到一些建築商談論他們希望在未來一兩年內真正將平均價格回落一點，因為他們引入了新社區。也許他們更遠一點，或者平面圖更小一些。那麼我們應該和你們一起考慮這個問題嗎？你是否真的在關注平均價格和你在市場上的地位，並試圖在未來至少絕對地降低它？

Alan, we're always focused on affordability. And we talk entirely about a sustainable run rate in these communities and that involves not overpricing at any point in time. So -- but yes, we're looking at product. We're looking at communities, land, how do we drive more and more efficiency into the process so that we can maintain a more affordable level of cost. And then that's -- to me, that's market scale that's consistency of starts. It's -- as we continue to drive market share gains, consolidate labor, we're in a better position to acquire land and it's just an ongoing continuous effort to get a little bit better every day.

艾倫，我們一直關注可負擔性。我們完全談論這些社區的可持續運行率，這包括在任何時候都不會定價過高。所以 - 但是是的，我們正在研究產品。我們正在研究社區、土地，以及我們如何在流程中提高效率，以便我們能夠保持更實惠的成本水平。然後就是 - 對我來說，這就是市場規模，即啟動的一致性。這是 - 隨著我們繼續推動市場份額增長，鞏固勞動力，我們處於獲得土地的更好位置，這只是持續不斷的努力，每天都變得更好。

Makes a lot of sense. If I can sneak in one last one just on January. You and others have obviously highlighted very strong demand continue in January. I'm curious if you've seen any notable shifts in sentiment or activity across your price points given the uptick here in rates? Are you seeing maybe more discretionary buyers jumping in because their concerned rates are going to continue climbing? So like in your active business or Emerald. Or has the strength been pretty consistent with what you've seen prior to this move?

很有意義。如果我能在一月份偷偷溜進去最後一個。您和其他人顯然強調了 1 月份繼續非常強勁的需求。我很好奇，鑑於這裡的利率上升，您是否看到您的價格點的情緒或活動有任何顯著變化？您是否看到可能會有更多可自由支配的買家加入，因為他們擔心的利率將繼續攀升？就像在您的活躍業務或翡翠一樣。還是強度與您在此舉動之前看到的相當一致？

Alan, I don't think we've seen in the last month any real discernible difference. We still have more buyers in all of our markets than we have homes available. And so we are continuing to release those homes at a later stage of construction and so meeting that demand with the inventory as it gets to that point in its construction cycle. So hard to gauge whether it's a significant shift of any sort, and we still are seeing strong demand across all of our markets and across all demand bases.

艾倫，我認為我們在上個月沒有看到任何真正明顯的差異。我們所有市場的買家仍然比可用房屋多。因此，我們將繼續在建設後期釋放這些房屋，並在其建設週期的那個階段通過庫存來滿足需求。很難判斷這是否是任何形式的重大轉變，我們仍然看到我們所有市場和所有需求基礎的強勁需求。

All price points.

所有價位。

Your next question is coming from Carl Reichardt with BTIG.

您的下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

Paul, I think you are the one who said this, that you're working to stabilize and then reduce cycle times. Pragmatically, what specifically do you do to make that happen, given that builders are outsourcers effectively? And why and how do you do that better at Horton than, say, a peer would?

保羅，我認為你是這樣說的，你正在努力穩定然後減少週期時間。務實地說，鑑於建築商是有效的外包商，你具體做了什麼來實現這一點？為什麼以及如何在霍頓做得比同齡人做得更好？

Carl, I think a lot of the things at Horton is just because we just work harder than other. Everybody works hard, but our people are just phenomenal problem solvers, and it's a part of the culture, the decentralized nature. I mean they take ownership and they solve problems. What we have tried to do is guide the divisions to understand the capacity within communities and consistently start homes to meet that capacity. And when they do that, the capacity increases because the people in those communities get a little better at building those houses.

卡爾，我認為霍頓的很多事情只是因為我們比其他人更努力。每個人都努力工作，但我們的員工只是出色的問題解決者，這是文化的一部分，去中心化的本質。我的意思是他們擁有所有權並解決問題。我們試圖做的是引導各部門了解社區內的能力，並始終如一地開辦家庭以滿足這種能力。當他們這樣做時，容量就會增加，因為這些社區的人們在建造這些房屋方面會做得更好。

And we're seeing that in -- I don't know what the industry average is, but I got to believe we are completing homes, even though it is not to our historical norm, still more rapidly than our peers out there. But it's that consistent starts, limited product, limited options, making it easier for these trades to get in and get out, reducing the SKUs that we're asking our suppliers to hold and, in some cases, ordering early. In some cases stock -- I mean anything, everything that we can do to eliminate or break a bottleneck and -- the people in the field are doing. And I can tell you 100 stories, but I'm not going to.

我們看到了——我不知道行業平均水平是多少，但我必須相信我們正在完成房屋，即使這不符合我們的歷史標準，但仍然比我們的同行更快。但它是一致的開始、有限的產品、有限的選擇，使這些交易更容易進出，減少了我們要求供應商持有的 SKU，在某些情況下，提前訂購。在某些情況下，庫存——我的意思是任何東西，我們可以做的一切來消除或打破瓶頸以及——該領域的人正在做的事情。我可以告訴你100個故事，但我不會。

Fair enough. Thanks, David. And then I wanted to ask about lot count. You're over 550,000 under control now and the buildup has been significant, right? I mean, I think it was up 40% last year. So at some point, these lots got to come to market. So if you think about how they might, is this -- you could have bigger communities going forward. You could have more communities going forward. In existing markets, you could have new markets. Can you sort of break out, as you look at your lot position now, sort of as you grow where those different elements fit into the long-term puzzle here? Kind of bigger communities, more communities in existing markets, i.e., potentially more share or new markets.

很公平。謝謝，大衛。然後我想問一下手數。你現在已經控制了超過 550,000 人，而且積累很重要，對吧？我的意思是，我認為去年上漲了 40%。所以在某些時候，這些地段必須進入市場。因此，如果您考慮一下他們可能會如何，是不是-您可以擁有更大的社區。你可以有更多的社區向前發展。在現有市場中，您可以擁有新市場。當您現在查看您的手數時，您能否突破，就像您成長時，這些不同的元素適合這裡的長期難題？更大的社區，現有市場中的更多社區，即潛在的更多份額或新市場。

Yes. D, all of the above. It will be...

是的。 D、以上所有。這將是...

I used that one already, but in terms of sort of the long-term split is kind of what I'm asking.

我已經用過那個了，但就長期分裂而言，這就是我要問的。

I don't know that we'd see a big change in our long-term split. We are continually evaluating new markets. And at the same time, the mandate is to the teams in the field, aggregate your market share. We feel that local scale drives a lot of value in the business for us, and the lot supply is a key part of it. I will tell you the frustration, it takes longer -- just like it does to build a house, it takes longer to get a neighborhood approved. It takes longer to get lots built today than it did a year or 2 years ago. And so we're continuing to challenge that.

我不知道我們是否會看到我們的長期分歧發生重大變化。我們不斷評估新市場。同時，任務是給該領域的團隊，聚合你的市場份額。我們認為本地規模為我們的業務帶來了很大的價值，而地塊供應是其中的關鍵部分。我會告訴你挫敗感，它需要更長的時間——就像建造房屋一樣，獲得社區批准需要更長的時間。與一年或兩年前相比，今天建造地塊需要更長的時間。因此，我們將繼續挑戰這一點。

So just like our housing supply has increased relative to our current delivery levels, our lot -- controlled lot position has increased to support those lots coming on, just taking longer to get into the finish line.

因此，就像我們的住房供應相對於我們目前的交付水平有所增加一樣，我們的地段 - 受控地段的位置也增加了，以支持即將到來的地段，只是需要更長的時間才能進入終點線。

And our market count has continued to expand. So we're in 102 markets today. That's up just 4 markets sequentially. We continue to feel out kind of the more Midwestern Ohio Valley part of our footprint and continue to look at additional markets that would make sense to expand into as well.

我們的市場數量不斷擴大。所以我們今天在 102 個市場。環比僅上漲了 4 個市場。我們繼續感受我們足跡中俄亥俄河谷中西部的一部分，並繼續尋找其他有意義的市場。

Your next question is coming from Matthew Bouley with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Matthew Bouley。

So have a question on cancellations and interest rates, just given how low cancellations are at this point. I know you do those stress tests on the backlog and have talked about sort of flexing 100 basis points, increase in mortgage rates. But I guess to what degree does the speed of rates rising coupled with these extended cycle times play into all that? I mean we had a 50 basis point rise in just 4 weeks. You got buyers in backlog that may have to wait several months at this point. So how do we think about risk to an uptick in cancellations here?

所以有一個關於取消和利率的問題，只是考慮到此時的取消率有多低。我知道你對積壓的工作進行了壓力測試，並談到了彎曲 100 個基點，提高抵押貸款利率。但我猜想利率上升的速度加上這些延長的周期時間在多大程度上影響了這一切？我的意思是我們在短短 4 週內就上漲了 50 個基點。您有積壓的買家，此時可能需要等待幾個月。那麼，我們如何考慮這裡取消訂單增加的風險呢？

Well, I think as you look at those stress tests that we do, and we've run it again and seeing a slight uptick in it, but still nominal and the interest rate increase we've seen today have spurred further demand much more so than knock people out of qualification and ability to qualify.

好吧，我認為當你查看我們所做的那些壓力測試時，我們再次運行它並看到它略有上升，但仍然是名義上的，而且我們今天看到的利率上升刺激了進一步的需求，所以而不是讓人們失去資格和資格。

And I think Mike mentioned earlier, but that's also part of the key to selling homes later in the construction cycle as they're not having to lock for longer or be worried about what an interest rate move does. So if we're selling closer to the time of completion and home closing, there's less risk in that regard as well.

而且我認為邁克之前提到過，但這也是在建築週期後期出售房屋的關鍵的一部分，因為他們不必鎖定更長時間或擔心利率變動會產生什麼影響。因此，如果我們在接近完工和關閉房屋的時間出售，那麼在這方面的風險也會更小。

Yes. Okay. Good. That makes sense.

是的。好的。好的。這就說得通了。

And then second one on the cycle times again. Maybe they improve at some point, maybe they don't. But assuming there's not a significant amount of new building products capacity coming online this year, are there any structural changes you're making to the supply chain? Even if it's not possible in every single building material, is there anything you can do with more prefab packages? For example, I heard you say earlier, simplification of SKUs. And any of these changes you're making today, are they structural in nature? Or is it simply adjusting to whatever the market is at any point?

然後再次在循環時間上進行第二次。也許他們在某些時候有所改善，也許他們沒有。但假設今年沒有大量新的建築產品產能上線，您是否正在對供應鏈進行任何結構性改變？即使不可能在每一種建築材料中使用，你能用更多的預製包做些什麼嗎？比如我之前聽你說，SKU的簡化。你今天所做的任何這些改變，它們本質上是結構性的嗎？還是只是簡單地適應市場在任何時候？

I think as David mentioned before, I mean, it's everything everywhere. We definitely empower our local business leaders to solve the bottlenecks that are unique to their market. And there are some that are broader in nature and our national purchasing team and regional purchasing teams do a great job of partnering with those manufacturers and our trade partners to give them more forward visibility to our expected demands. And then help to understand how that product gets from point of manufacturer through distribution, kind of get the product that's being earmarked for us into the distribution chain through it onto our job sites when we need it. Not always a perfect process. We would certainly like it to be faster, but it's increased communication, simplification of product and a lot of anything we need to do market by market.

我認為正如大衛之前提到的，我的意思是，它無處不在。我們絕對授權我們當地的商業領袖來解決他們市場獨有的瓶頸。還有一些更廣泛的性質，我們的國家採購團隊和區域採購團隊在與這些製造商和我們的貿易夥伴合作方面做得很好，讓他們對我們的預期需求有更多的前瞻性。然後幫助了解該產品如何通過分銷從製造商處獲得，當我們需要時，將指定給我們的產品通過它進入我們的工作現場，然後通過它進入我們的分銷鏈。並不總是一個完美的過程。我們當然希望它更快，但它增加了溝通，簡化了產品以及我們需要逐個市場做的許多事情。

Your next question is coming from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is, is thinking about the potential use for more incentives in the market. Given the fact that the inventory is so low, do you think that the likelihood of us seeing any real meaningful increase there is actually much more -- is actually much lower than it has been in the past? Do you think that we would need to see just a lot more on the ground in order for anything to meaningfully change?

我的第一個問題是，正在考慮市場上更多激勵措施的潛在用途。鑑於庫存如此之低，您是否認為我們看到任何真正有意義的增長的可能性實際上比過去要低得多？你認為我們需要在實地看到更多的東西才能讓任何事情發生有意義的變化嗎？

I don't see any change in the incentives coming. It's a -- I'm sure at some point the inventory will catch up with demand. It is still significantly out of balance, especially if you're looking at the areas where -- the Florida, the Texas, the Arizonas, even across the Midwest where you have job growth and influx of people. It's -- you never say never, but the difficulty of getting lots on the ground and then getting houses built is -- it's going to be very difficult to catch up with demand anytime in the next couple of years.

我認為激勵措施沒有任何變化。這是一個 - 我確信在某個時候庫存會趕上需求。它仍然嚴重失衡，特別是如果您正在查看佛羅里達州，德克薩斯州，亞利桑那州，甚至中西部的就業增長和人口湧入的地區。這是 - 你永遠不會說永遠，但是在地面上獲得土地然後建造房屋的困難是 - 在接下來的幾年中隨時趕上需求將非常困難。

Now Susan, you touched on it with the level of inventory out there, the use of incentives. I think you'd have to see a significant increase in the level of unsold inventories, especially unsold completed inventories. And today, we're at 1,000 unsold completed homes at the end of December, very low for us this time of the year to be carrying that few homes.

現在蘇珊，你談到了那裡的庫存水平，激勵措施的使用。我認為您必須看到未售出的庫存水平顯著增加，尤其是未售出的已完成庫存。而今天，截至 12 月底，我們有 1,000 套未售出的已完工房屋，對於我們每年的這個時候來說，攜帶這幾套房屋的數量非常少。

Right. Okay. And then my follow-up is, thinking about the operational pressures in the industry, even if the supply chain on the material side does eventually catch up and things there normalize, do you think that we could be facing an overall tighter labor environment in construction relative to where we were before COVID? And if so, how do you think about your ability to overcome that and continue to increase the level of production that you can deliver?

正確的。好的。然後我的跟進是，考慮到行業的運營壓力，即使材料方面的供應鏈最終會趕上並恢復正常，您認為我們是否會面臨建築業整體更緊的勞動力環境相對於我們在 COVID 之前所處的位置？如果是這樣，您如何看待您克服這一點並繼續提高您可以交付的生產水平的能力？

It goes back to market scale and even within submarkets being able to control a labor base and keeping them busy, keeping them in the same location. I just can't oversell that advantage, where you've got a program where we're releasing 15, 20, 30 houses every month, month after month after month after month. The aggregation of labor in those kinds of communities is -- it's very advantageous in today's world. And it also gives you the ability to kind of direct some of that labor through the 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 a month absorption communities. So it's market scale. It's -- again, everything that we've done, simplifying the product, trying to maintain affordability and then having well-located communities with long runway -- long run rate times.

它可以追溯到市場規模，甚至在能夠控制勞動力基礎並讓他們保持忙碌的子市場內，讓他們保持在同一個位置。我不能誇大這種優勢，你有一個計劃，我們每個月，月復一月，月復一月地發布 15、20、30 套房屋。這類社區的勞動力聚集——在當今世界非常有利。它還使您能夠通過每月 2 或 3 或 4 或 5 個吸收社區來指導一些勞動力。所以是市場規模。這是 - 再次，我們所做的一切，簡化產品，努力保持可負擔性，然後擁有位置優越的社區和長跑道 - 長期運行時間。

Your next question is coming from Eric Bosshard with Cleveland Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Eric Bosshard。

A couple of things. First of all, the outlook on costs, if you could just provide some clarity on where that goes and especially, trying to figure out the movement in lumber, how that is flowing through? Where were trough lumber and where the lumber impact goes going forward, especially on the cost side?

有幾件事。首先，關於成本的前景，如果你能提供一些關於它的去向的清晰，特別是試圖弄清楚木材的運動，它是如何流動的？槽材在哪裡，木材的影響在哪裡，尤其是在成本方面？

Sure. So I'll start with lumber and then somebody else can chime in on the rest of our cost structure. Lumber costs have remained really volatile as I know you're aware, Eric. We have had some opportunities to purchase at costs that were well below the peaks we saw, I guess, last spring and into the summer. However, those reductions in prices lasted a shorter period of time than we really expected and really probably hoped, and lumber has been on the rise again for the last few months.

當然。所以我將從木材開始，然後其他人可以參與我們的成本結構的其餘部分。我知道你知道，木材成本一直非常不穩定，埃里克。我們有一些機會以遠低於我們看到的峰值的成本購買，我猜，去年春天和夏天。然而，這些價格下降持續的時間比我們真正預期的和真正可能希望的要短，並且木材在過去幾個月裡再次上漲。

So there's been other supply chain delays that also caused the volatility in lumber prices. We do hope that we'll see a mix that leans towards slightly lower costs in Q2, which is baked into our Q2 gross margin guide for flat to slightly up gross margins, but then we do expect our lumber cost to trend back up in our closing starting in Q3. In other costs?

因此，還有其他供應鏈延遲也導致了木材價格的波動。我們確實希望我們會在第二季度看到一個傾向於略微降低成本的組合，這被納入我們的第二季度毛利率指南，使毛利率持平到略微上升，但我們確實預計我們的木材成本將在我們的從第三季度開始關閉。在其他費用？

It's kind of a mixed bag, but we would generally be seeing slight cost pressures in most places and so that's been offset by price increases, I think. Some of the lumber relief we should see in Q2, early Q3, will help with some of that as well, but as Jessica mentioned, lumber prices have gone back up, and so those will be flowing through closings later this fiscal year.

這是一種混合包，但我們通常會在大多數地方看到輕微的成本壓力，因此我認為這被價格上漲所抵消。我們應該在第二季度和第三季度初看到的一些木材減免也將有所幫助，但正如傑西卡所說，木材價格已經回升，因此這些將在本財年晚些時候通過關閉而流動。

And really with home prices continue to increase, I mean, generally, all costs typically follow. And so we really wouldn't expect to see much in the way of cost relief until you see some sort of slowdown in home price appreciation.

實際上，隨著房價的持續上漲，我的意思是，一般來說，所有成本通常都會隨之而來。因此，在您看到房價升值放緩之前，我們真的不會期望看到太多的成本緩解方式。

Okay. And then secondly, it seems like just a math equation, but I know there's more to it than that. But the incremental -- the modest increase in the revenue guide for the year with the same deliveries, it appears that it's just looking at price and extrapolating that out. But what else were the considerations and taking a bit more optimistic position on the full year revenue growth, especially in front of the selling season?

好的。其次，它似乎只是一個數學方程式，但我知道它的意義遠不止於此。但是增量 - 在相同交付量的情況下今年收入指南的適度增長，似乎它只是在看價格並推斷出來。但還有什麼考慮因素，對全年收入增長持更樂觀的態度，尤其是在銷售旺季之前？

Yes, Eric, it really is just an extrapolation of where we see prices now. We've got a few more months of visibility into our selling prices and where our closing prices moved up to in Q1 and what our visibility is going into Q2 that -- we feel like the sales prices that are baked in and that we have visibility to -- that justified increasing, a pretty nice increase in our annual revenue guide. But obviously, with the continued challenges on the supply chain, with construction cycle times elongating, we didn't really feel like we had any more room on the volume side as of yet. So it's really solely priced, and we feel good about that guidance for the year.

是的，埃里克，這真的只是我們現在看到的價格的一個推斷。我們對我們的售價還有幾個月的了解，我們的收盤價在第一季度上漲到哪裡，以及我們在第二季度的可見度如何——我們覺得銷售價格已經被納入並且我們有可見度到——這是合理的增長，我們的年度收入指南中的增長相當不錯。但顯然，隨著供應鏈上的持續挑戰，隨著建設週期的延長，我們真的覺得我們在數量方面還沒有更多的空間。所以它真的是單獨定價的，我們對今年的指導感覺很好。

Your next question is coming from Rafe Jadrosich with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

It's Rafe. I wanted to start on the rental business. Can you talk a little bit about the returns you were targeting in the rental business? And how that could compare to homebuilding longer term? And then will you be targeting different markets in the rental business compared to the homebuilding segment?

是雷夫。我想開始租賃業務。你能談談你在租賃業務中的目標回報嗎？從長遠來看，這與住宅建設相比如何？然後，與住宅建築領域相比，您會瞄準租賃業務的不同市場嗎？

So Rafe, what we're seeing is we're growing that business pretty aggressively, and we've been very pleased with actually the returns that, that business is produced on a trailing 12-month basis. The profits that segment has generated relative to its inventory investment have been about 20%, and that's in a heavy growth ramp. So we would expect to see that continue to increase, especially when we get to have more of the projects delivering on a more consistent basis. And I would say that the markets we seek to serve with that, it's going to line up very well with our homebuilding for-sale footprint as well. We've seen a lot of markets accept the product very well, and the investor base very excited about those projects as well.

所以 Rafe，我們看到的是我們正在非常積極地發展這項業務，我們對實際回報非常滿意，該業務是在過去 12 個月的基礎上產生的。相對於其庫存投資，該部門產生的利潤約為 20%，並且處於高速增長階段。因此，我們希望看到這種情況繼續增加，特別是當我們有更多的項目在更一致的基礎上交付時。我想說的是，我們尋求與之服務的市場，也將與我們的待售房屋建築足跡非常吻合。我們已經看到很多市場都很好地接受了該產品，投資者群體也對這些項目感到非常興奮。

And then on -- in terms of the pace of your home starts, obviously, the average ticked up a lot in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter, I think about $1,000 a month. What's allowing you to increase that pace sequentially? And then how should we think about that going forward?

然後 - 就您的房屋開工速度而言，顯然，與第四季度相比，第一季度的平均價格上漲了很多，我認為每月大約 1,000 美元。是什麼讓您按順序加快步伐？那麼我們應該如何看待未來呢？

Yes. I think that that's in line with our plans and what we have set forth across all of our divisions and communities. We target an absorption pace per community planned well ahead to make sure that we have those permits in hand and lots in front of us. It's not easier today to put lots on the ground any more than it is easier to build a home, but we have incredible operators in the field who stay ahead of this and it's allowed us to continually, sequentially, quarter-over-quarter increase our starts pace and that's a cadence that we hope to continue.

是的。我認為這符合我們的計劃以及我們在所有部門和社區中製定的內容。我們的目標是提前計劃好每個社區的吸收速度，以確保我們手頭有這些許可證，而且我們面前還有很多。今天，在地面上投入大量土地並不比建造房屋更容易，但我們在該領域擁有令人難以置信的運營商，他們保持領先地位，這使我們能夠連續、連續、季度環比地增加我們的開始節奏，這是我們希望繼續的節奏。

The real key to our ability to do that is our lot position, having that long lot position controlled and strong supplier relationships on will and the developer side puts our operators and positions to continue to start and increase our start base.

我們能夠做到這一點的真正關鍵是我們的地段頭寸，控制多頭頭寸和強大的供應商關係，開發商方面讓我們的運營商和頭寸繼續啟動並增加我們的啟動基礎。

Your next question for today is coming from Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets.

您今天的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mike Dahl。

Just a couple of follow-ups here, and maybe first one ties into the last one a little bit, but the order guidance for your fiscal 2Q being flat to low single digits. It seems like you've been pretty successful getting some inventory rebuild both sequentially and year-on-year. Your comps get a little easier in 2Q versus 1Q. So can you just talk about the moving pieces on that order guide? And why there can be some upside there?

這裡只有幾個跟進，也許第一個與最後一個有一點聯繫，但您的第二財季的訂單指導持平至低個位數。看起來您已經非常成功地按順序和按年進行了一些庫存重建。與 1Q 相比，2Q 的比賽變得更容易一些。所以你能談談那個訂單指南上的移動部件嗎？為什麼會有一些好處呢？

I think we're still seeing a restriction on sales relative to where the inventory is getting to in production. So we're still waiting to sell the homes closer to the delivery date, and so that's kind of what's really the real driver is on our sales expectation. Our comp is still up against a 35% increase last year in the second quarter. It does certainly get to be a much easier comp in Q3 and Q4 this year from a sales perspective.

我認為我們仍然看到相對於庫存在生產中的位置對銷售的限制。因此，我們仍在等待在接近交付日期時出售房屋，這才是我們銷售預期的真正驅動因素。我們的薪酬仍高於去年第二季度 35% 的增幅。從銷售的角度來看，今年第三季度和第四季度肯定會變得更容易。

Got it. Okay. And my second question, I wanted to follow up on one of Steve's questions from earlier around kind of rentals being potentially a backstop for the for sale because it's kind of an interesting concept, especially as you scale that side of your business and the partnerships you have with buyers of those assets. And so if the idea is, at some point in time, if for-sale demand were to slow, there could be an institutional buyer that would be looking at additional communities that you may have currently built as for sale, but someone may want to buy wholesale and turn to rentals. Can you talk a little bit more about how you would view opportunities like that? And I know the economics and the returns can look very different, so maybe just even conceptually, what it would have to take in terms of what the moving pieces around the return dynamics, if you were to look at bulk [saleing] a community that was not intended for bulk sale at some point in the future?

知道了。好的。我的第二個問題是，我想跟進史蒂夫早些時候提出的一個問題，即出租可能是出售的後盾，因為這是一個有趣的概念，尤其是當您擴展業務的這一方面和您的合作夥伴關係時與這些資產的買家。因此，如果這個想法是，在某個時間點，如果待售需求放緩，可能會有機構買家關注您目前可能建造的其他待售社區，但有人可能想要批發購買，然後轉租。你能多談談你如何看待這樣的機會嗎？而且我知道經濟學和回報可能看起來非常不同，所以也許只是在概念上，如果你要查看大量 [銷售] 一個社區不打算在將來的某個時候批量銷售？

Yes. Mike, I've always -- we've always believed that the rental platform, when we get it built out, will derisk our land portfolio because it does give us another lever. But from just a philosophical standpoint, we believe in the for-sale business. We believe homeownership in the country is very important. Today, our goal is to deliver more homes because the demand is there, and it's hard to believe, 5 years from now, homes are going to be more affordable than they are today. So every family we can get a home, we feel like we -- is a win for us and for that family.

是的。邁克，我一直 - 我們一直相信，當我們建成租賃平台時，它將使我們的土地組合失去風險，因為它確實為我們提供了另一個槓桿。但從哲學的角度來看，我們相信待售業務。我們認為，在該國擁有房屋非常重要。今天，我們的目標是提供更多的房屋，因為需求是存在的，而且很難相信 5 年後，房屋會比現在更實惠。因此，我們可以擁有一個家的每個家庭，我們都覺得我們——對我們和那個家庭來說都是一場胜利。

When we look at the risk in the rental platform, the ability to scale that up, the segment that's going to create, it's going to be a real business all on its own. And because of the geographic platform and the embedded divisions within that geography, our ability to scale that and touch every market is -- we see as just great opportunity for our shareholders and for our people internally.

當我們看到租賃平台的風險、擴大規模的能力、將要創建的細分市場時，它將成為一項真正的業務。由於地理平台和該地理區域內的嵌入式部門，我們擴大規模和触及每個市場的能力是——我們認為這對我們的股東和我們內部的員工來說是一個很好的機會。

Your next question is coming from Ken Zener with KeyBanc.

您的下一個問題來自於 KeyBanc 的 Ken Zener。

I thought you guys were better because you paid for your own phones. I have 2 simple questions. One, obviously, with insatiable demand, how you guys are approaching the cycle time in construction? Basically, it looks like your vestments in your inventory units are slowing, right? Cycle time is about 5% sequentially. You guys rose inventory 14%. Is that pretty much the move that you guys will pursue into the second half if the cycle times continue to compress, that you'll just grow more units into the ground to compensate for that slower cycle time?

我認為你們更好，因為你們為自己的手機付費。我有兩個簡單的問題。一，顯然，由於需求永不滿足，你們如何接近施工週期？基本上，看起來您在庫存單位中的投資正在放緩，對吧？循環時間約為 5%。你們增加了 14% 的庫存。如果週期時間繼續壓縮，你們將在下半場採取這樣的行動嗎？你們只是在地下種植更多的單位來補償較慢的周期時間？

We have start targets and we talk about consistent sustainable starts driving ultimately sales and closings, and it's based on the capacity within divisions to deliver those homes.

我們有開始目標，我們談論一致的可持續開始最終推動銷售和關閉，它基於部門內交付這些房屋的能力。

Okay. I mean it seems to me that's the way you're approaching it. And I guess, realizing this conference call is long already, David, could you just -- we spoke about this in the past, the interest rate you paid on your first home. You highlighted obviously the very strong demand, strong job growth. Can you guys just comment -- I mean we recently wrote about it, but can you comment on the fact with your perspective about your comfort with the real rates being negative now compared to when you took your first mortgage rate? Just as a kind of a broad thought. Appreciate it.

好的。我的意思是，在我看來，這就是你接近它的方式。我想，大衛，你已經意識到這次電話會議已經很久了，你能不能——我們過去談到過這個，你在第一套房子上支付的利率。您顯然強調了非常強勁的需求和強勁的就業增長。你們能不能評論一下——我的意思是我們最近寫了一篇關於它的文章，但是你能評論一下這個事實嗎？與你第一次抵押貸款利率相比，你對現在的實際利率為負值感到滿意嗎？就像一種寬泛的思想。欣賞它。

It's a great time. I think it's more affordable today than it certainly was in the '80s. The ability to get into a house, lock down your homeownership or your housing cost for the next 20 years is a significant driving force in what's going on because as overall cost inflation, interest rates, as those continue to move up, the people that are buying a house today, even if it's at a price that's 15%, 20% higher than it was last year, are -- I mean it's just a great thing.

這是一段美好的時光。我認為今天它比 80 年代更實惠。在接下來的 20 年裡，有能力買房、鎖定你的房屋所有權或住房成本是正在發生的事情的重要推動力，因為隨著總體成本通脹、利率繼續上升，那些今天買房子，即使它的價格比去年高出 15%，20%，我的意思是這只是一件好事。

So the other thing, Ken, that we really don't talk much about, but it's -- when I was 20s, I mean that was just -- that was what was expected. You figured out a way to buy a house and that became less cool, for use of a stupid term, as the millennials came into their 20s. But what I'm seeing and what my millennial daughter is telling me is, now it's -- that's a big part of the narrative on social media is, it's -- people want to own homes again. And it's just -- I'm amazed sometimes at some of the conversations around housing. And I look at what it was, I look at what it is. I look at the -- just the demographic demand that's out there, I look at the wealth effect of everything that's happened over the last 10 years and the American public is -- they're in a good place. And from an affordability standpoint, homeownership is better than it was in the '80s.

所以另一件事，肯，我們真的很少談論，但它是 - 當我 20 多歲時，我的意思是那隻是 - 這是預期的。當千禧一代進入 20 多歲時，你想出了一個買房子的方法，用一個愚蠢的術語來說，這變得不那麼酷了。但我所看到的以及我千禧一代的女兒告訴我的是，現在是——這是社交媒體上的一個重要部分，它是——人們想要再次擁有自己的房子。只是——有時我對圍繞住房的一些對話感到驚訝。我看看它是什麼，我看看它是什麼。我看看 - 只是那裡的人口需求，我看看過去 10 年發生的一切以及美國公眾的財富效應 - 他們處於一個好地方。從負擔能力的角度來看，房屋所有權比 80 年代要好。

So I'm very optimistic about what's going on. I'm very optimistic about this company, and I'm just in awe of our people and how -- what they are accomplishing out there. So -- I don't know if I answered your question, but I told you what I think.

所以我對正在發生的事情非常樂觀。我對這家公司非常樂觀，我對我們的員工以及他們如何——他們在那裡取得的成就感到敬畏。所以——我不知道我是否回答了你的問題，但我告訴了你我的想法。

Your next question is coming from Truman Patterson with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自杜魯門·帕特森（Truman Patterson）和沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

So David, I just want to follow up on one of your prior comments about the public is gaining market share, and I know it might be difficult to generalize, but I'm hoping to understand what you're hearing on the ground from local operators regarding some of your private builder competitors. Are they expecting their home inventory to jump significantly through 2022, expecting strong activity or strong active land or community count growth? Or are you expecting more of the same, of a pretty constrained environment for your private builder peers?

所以大衛，我只是想跟進你之前關於公眾正在獲得市場份額的評論之一，我知道這可能很難一概而論，但我希望了解你從當地聽到的運營商關於您的一些私人建築商競爭對手。他們是否預計到 2022 年他們的房屋庫存將大幅增加，預計活動強勁或活躍土地或社區數量增長強勁？或者您是否希望為您的私人建築商同行提供更多相同的、相當受限的環境？

I'm also asking this in light that you all make a 10% plus of the market, you all had really nice order growth in the quarter. But when you look at new home sales in the fourth quarter, it was down more than 20% plus. So I'm really hoping you can help us think through this as we move through '22.

我還問這個問題，因為你們都取得了 10% 以上的市場份額，你們在本季度都有非常好的訂單增長。但是，當您查看第四季度的新房銷售時，它下降了 20% 以上。所以我真的希望你能幫助我們在我們度過 22 年的時候思考這個問題。

We actually were talking about this in getting ready for the call. The private builders and even some of the smaller public builders are going to have very difficult time delivering houses. I mean we're having -- it is hard for us. I mean it's probably harder to complete and finish a house today as it's been in my career in homebuilding. And as these private guys who don't have our scale, who don't have our ability to drive a result, their houses are sitting. And that's going to cut off their access to the next house they start. Anecdotally, we are talking to the builders in markets that -- they're just tired. They don't -- they've got 6, 7, 8 banks. They're sideways with 2 of them, and they're looking to us to take out their lot supply and then maybe become a developer for us in that market.

我們實際上是在為電話會議做準備時討論這個問題的。私人建築商甚至一些較小的公共建築商將很難交付房屋。我的意思是我們有——這對我們來說很難。我的意思是今天可能更難完成和完成一所房子，因為它一直在我的住宅建築職業生涯中。作為這些沒有我們的規模，沒有我們的能力來推動結果的私人傢伙，他們的房子正在坐著。這將切斷他們進入下一個他們開始的房子的通道。有趣的是，我們正在與市場上的建築商交談——他們只是累了。他們沒有——他們有 6、7、8 家銀行。他們與其中 2 家持平，他們希望我們拿出他們的地塊供應，然後可能成為我們在那個市場上的開發商。

So it's -- if the supply chains don't loosen up, I think you're going to see the consolidation accelerate in the market by the big [publics] because what is the big constraint on the market, on housing is the ability to get lots in front of you. And the private guys, they don't have that ability the publics do. And that's -- so when you look at new home sales decline, that doesn't have anything to do with demand, that has to be built -- 60% of the homes being built out there are being built by nonpublics. And I think over this cycle, you're going to see that group's ability to start houses continue to deteriorate. And that is going to get picked up by the publics. Even if the overall housing market, new home housing market declines, I think the top tier publics are going to pick up market share and they're going to continue to grow. So that's what I think.

所以它是——如果供應鏈不放鬆，我認為你會看到大[公眾]在市場上加速整合，因為對市場的最大限制是，對住房的限制是能夠在你面前得到很多。而私人的人，他們沒有公眾的能力。那就是——所以當你看到新房銷售下降時，這與需求沒有任何關係，必須建造——60%的在建房屋是由非公共機構建造的。而且我認為在這個週期中，你會看到該群體開辦房屋的能力繼續惡化。這將被公眾接受。即使整體住房市場，新房市場下滑，我認為頂級公眾將獲得市場份額並且他們將繼續增長。所以這就是我的想法。

Okay. Interesting. There's clearly been a lot of discussion with the Fed likely raising rates this year. We can debate what sort of impact that might have on demand versus lack of supply and everything. But hypothetically, let's say, demand does soften, which consumer segment do you all think holds up relatively better between entry-level, move-up, luxury, active adult? And are there any geographies that you all think might underperform?

好的。有趣的。顯然，與美聯儲今年可能加息的討論很多。我們可以討論可能對需求產生什麼樣的影響，而不是供應不足和一切。但是假設，假設需求確實減弱了，你們都認為哪個消費群體在入門級、升級、奢侈品、活躍的成年人之間相對較好？有沒有你們都認為可能表現不佳的地區？

This is -- probably, I know somewhat of a contrarian view the way the market sometimes reacts to entry-level builders, but we generally continue to think about an entry-level buyer as a buyer out of need rather than discretion. So although as prices continue to rise and/or rates are to increase and affordability gets negatively impacted, you do lose a subset of entry-level buyers that can qualify for a home.

這是 - 可能，我知道市場有時對入門級建築商的反應方式有些逆向觀點，但我們通常繼續將入門級買家視為出於需要而不是自由裁量權的買家。因此，儘管隨著價格繼續上漲和/或利率上漲以及可負擔性受到負面影響，您確實會失去一部分有資格購買房屋的入門級買家。

We do expect over the long term that to continue to be the lion's share of the demand, which is why we continue to focus on affordability because, as I said, those buyers are buying out of need. Whereas the further the price curve you go, that's a more discretionary buyer, maybe a little bit more financially savvy that is more focused on timing of an interest rate versus just an absolute monthly payment.

從長遠來看，我們確實預計這將繼續成為需求的最大份額，這就是我們繼續關注可負擔性的原因，因為正如我所說，這些買家是出於需要而購買的。而你走的價格曲線越遠，那是一個更可自由支配的買家，可能更懂財務，更關注利率的時間安排，而不是絕對每月付款。

In the interest of time, your final question is coming from Deepa Raghavan with Wells Fargo Securities.

考慮到時間，您的最後一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Deepa Raghavan。

A couple ones for me. So let me ask on the affordability issue. We look at trends, it just doesn't correlate to the concern that's out there on affordability. And Dave, like you pointed out, rates are still historically low and it looks like we could end up having the whole -- the industry, the homebuilders could end up having good pricing power this year, too. My question is, is the affordability issue being raised too ahead of its time? Or do you believe 2022 or 2023 can be structurally impaired or impacted from some buyers being priced out in this continually tight, imbalanced environment?

給我幾個。所以讓我問一下負擔能力問題。我們著眼於趨勢，它只是與人們對負擔能力的擔憂無關。戴夫，就像你指出的那樣，利率仍然處於歷史低位，看起來我們最終可能擁有整個行業，房屋建築商今年也可能最終擁有良好的定價能力。我的問題是，負擔能力問題是否過早提出？或者您是否認為 2022 年或 2023 年可能會因一些買家在這種持續緊張、不平衡的環境中被定價而受到結構性損害或影響？

As we've seen in our sales offices and demand, we're not seeing people being priced out to any [new rates] today, and we're generally focused at a price point lower than most of our competitors in the markets that we serve. What I would say is that going forward, you see very good household income growth. Inflation is certainly out there. It's across the board and as someone touched on before, we could be at negative real interest rates to own a home, so it's a very powerful economic decision to go ahead and buy a house today and lock in that interest rate relative to current inflation expectations. So still feel very good about the demand we're seeing into '22. Hard to predict much beyond that because you just don't know, but we do like what we see in '22 for sure.

正如我們在銷售辦事處和需求中看到的那樣，我們今天沒有看到人們被定價為任何 [新價格]，而且我們通常專注於低於我們市場上大多數競爭對手的價格點服務。我想說的是，展望未來，你會看到非常好的家庭收入增長。通貨膨脹肯定是存在的。這是全面的，正如有人之前提到的那樣，我們可能會以負實際利率來擁有房屋，因此今天繼續購買房屋並鎖定相對於當前通脹預期的利率是一個非常強大的經濟決策.所以仍然對我們在 22 年看到的需求感覺非常好。很難預測除此之外，因為您只是不知道，但我們確實喜歡我們在 22 年看到的情況。

Okay. That's helpful. Dave, when we met you last summer, you mentioned expanding in Ohio Valley, in parts of Midwest as newer markets. But can you talk through what's the economic engine that will drive job growth there? It's hard for us to conceive that post-COVID with people decided to pack their bags and move to Ohio just because they can work remotely.

好的。這很有幫助。戴夫，去年夏天我們見到你時，你提到在俄亥俄河谷、中西部部分地區作為新市場進行擴張。但是你能談談推動那裡就業增長的經濟引擎是什麼嗎？我們很難想像，在疫情過後，人們決定打包行李搬到俄亥俄州只是因為他們可以遠程工作。

Yes, there's a big population base there now. You've got some of the best universities in the country that are there. You're seeing a migration out of what have historically been the tech areas and/or the think tank areas, financial areas into these incubators, which are these major universities. I'm just -- I'm a big believer that long term, the quality of life, just the access to really smart people is going to drive companies and growth companies into these markets. You see it in Austin. You see it in Nashville, Columbus. It's just across Indianapolis. There are brilliant people starting what are going to be great big companies that find that environment just a better place to be than some of the, what has historically been high tech, high-income markets. And the population of the U.S., it's -- those towns, those cities are great cities, and they offer a lot. And that's what...

是的，現在那裡的人口基數很大。你有一些全國最好的大學。你正在看到從歷史上的技術領域和/或智囊團領域、金融領域遷移到這些孵化器，也就是這些主要大學。我只是 - 我堅信長期、生活質量、接觸真正聰明的人將推動公司和成長型公司進入這些市場。你在奧斯汀看到它。你在哥倫布的納什維爾看到它。它就在印第安納波利斯對面。有才華橫溢的人開創了即將成為偉大的大公司，他們發現這種環境比一些歷史上一直是高科技、高收入市場的地方要好。而美國的人口，它是 - 那些城鎮，那些城市是偉大的城市，他們提供了很多。這就是...

That is all the time we have for questions today. I would like to turn the floor back over to David Auld for any closing comments.

這就是我們今天的所有提問時間。我想將發言權轉回給 David Auld，以徵求任何結束意見。

Thank you, Holly. We appreciate everybody's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you in our second quarter results in April. And our D.R. Horton family, outstanding first quarter. It's amazing what our people are accomplishing out there, and Don Horton and the entire executive team are humbled with the opportunity to represent you. Thank you.

謝謝你，霍莉。我們感謝大家今天在電話會議上的時間，並期待在 4 月份的第二季度業績中與您交談。還有我們的 D.R.霍頓家族，第一節表現出色。我們的員工在那裡取得的成就令人驚嘆，Don Horton 和整個執行團隊很榮幸有機會代表您。謝謝你。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your phone lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。你可以在這個時候斷開你的電話線，並有一個美好的一天。感謝您的參與。