霍頓房屋 (DHI) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call for D.R. Horton, America's Builder, the largest builder in the United States.

早上好，歡迎參加 D.R. 的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。霍頓，美國最大的建築商，美國最大的建築商。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to Jessica Hansen, Vice President of Investor Relations for D.R. Horton.

（操作員說明）我現在將把電話轉給 D.R. 投資者關係副總裁 Jessica Hansen。霍頓。

Thank you, Paul, and good morning. Welcome to our call to discuss our results for the third quarter of fiscal 2022. Before we get started, today's call includes forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

謝謝你，保羅，早上好。歡迎參加我們的電話會議，討論我們 2022 財年第三季度的業績。在我們開始之前，今天的電話會議包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Although D.R. Horton believes any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, there is no assurance that actual outcomes will not be materially different. All forward-looking statements are based upon information available to D.R. Horton on the date of this conference call, and D.R. Horton does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

雖然 D.R. Horton 認為任何此類陳述均基於合理的假設，無法保證實際結果不會有重大差異。所有前瞻性陳述均基於 D.R. 可獲得的信息。霍頓在電話會議召開之日，D.R. Horton 不承擔任何公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Additional information about factors that could lead to material changes in performance is contained in D.R. Horton's annual report on Form 10-K and its most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q, both of which are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

有關可能導致性能發生重大變化的因素的其他信息包含在 D.R. Horton 的 10-K 表格年度報告和最近的 10-Q 表格季度報告，這兩份報告均已提交給美國證券交易委員會。

This morning's earnings release can be found on our website at investor.drhorton.com, and we plan to file our 10-Q tomorrow. After this call, we will post updated investor and supplementary data presentations to our Investor Relations site on the Presentations section under News and Events for your reference. Now I will turn the call over to David Auld, our President and CEO.

今天上午的收益發布可以在我們的網站investor.drhorton.com 上找到，我們計劃明天提交我們的 10-Q。在本次電話會議之後，我們將在我們的投資者關係網站上的新聞和事件下的演示部分發布更新的投資者和補充數據演示文稿，供您參考。現在我將把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官 David Auld。

Thank you, Jessica, and good morning. I am pleased to also be joined on this call by Mike Murray and Paul Romanowski. our Executive Vice President and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Bill Wheat, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，傑西卡，早上好。我很高興能加入 Mike Murray 和 Paul Romanowski 的電話會議。我們的執行副總裁兼聯席首席運營官；以及我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Bill Wheat。

The D.R. Horton team delivered a strong third quarter, highlighted by a 53% increase in earnings to $4.67 per diluted share. Our consolidated pretax income increased 54% to $2.2 billion on a 21% increase in revenues. And our consolidated pretax profit margin improved 540 basis points to 24.8%. Our homebuilding return on inventory for the trailing 12 months ended June 30 was 41.7%, and our consolidated return on equity for the same period was 35.1%.

D.R. Horton 團隊第三季度表現強勁，其收益增長 53% 至每股攤薄收益 4.67 美元。我們的綜合稅前收入增長 54%，達到 22 億美元，收入增長 21%。我們的綜合稅前利潤率提高了 540 個基點至 24.8%。截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月，我們的房屋建築庫存回報率為 41.7%，同期我們的綜合股本回報率為 35.1%。

These results reflect our experienced teams, their production capabilities and our ability to leverage D.R. Horton's scale across our broad geographic footprint. Housing market demand remained strong during most of the quarter.

這些結果反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊、他們的生產能力以及我們利用 D.R.霍頓在我們廣泛的地理足跡上的規模。在本季度的大部分時間裡，住房市場需求保持強勁。

In June, we began to see a moderation in demand and an increase in cancellations due to the rapid rise in mortgage rate and continued inflationary pressures across most of the economy.

6 月，由於抵押貸款利率的快速上升和大部分經濟體的持續通脹壓力，我們開始看到需求放緩和取消訂單增加。

The supply of both new and resale homes at affordable prices remains limited. Although demand has slowed from the frenzy pace we experienced over the past year, there are still qualified buyers in the market today as household formations continue and inflationary pressures drive rents higher.

以可承受的價格提供的新房和轉售房的供應仍然有限。儘管需求已從我們過去一年經歷的瘋狂步伐放緩，但隨著家庭組成的繼續和通脹壓力推高租金，今天市場上仍有合格的買家。

54% of the homes we closed in the past 12 months were priced under $350,000, and our average sales price is approximately $100,000 lower than the average other homebuilders, positioning us to continue aggregating share. There are still disruptions in the supply chain and tightness in the labor market that continue to delay the completion of our homes under construction.

我們在過去 12 個月關閉的房屋中有 54% 的價格低於 350,000 美元，我們的平均銷售價格比其他房屋建築商的平均價格低約 100,000 美元，這使我們能夠繼續積累份額。供應鏈仍然存在中斷和勞動力市場緊張，繼續延遲我們在建房屋的完工。

These construction delays and changes in demand environment led us to reduce our full-year closing guidance for fiscal 2022. We remain purposefully -- we purposely slowed our number of home starts in the third quarter to position our inventory to align with market conditions.

這些施工延誤和需求環境的變化導致我們降低了對 2022 財年的全年收盤指導。我們仍然有目的地——我們有目的地放慢了第三季度的房屋開工數量，以使我們的庫存與市場條件保持一致。

Although the uncertainty of this market transition may persist for some time, we believe we are well positioned to meet changing market conditions with our experienced teams, affordable product offerings, flexible lot supply and their strong trade and supplier relationships.

儘管這種市場轉型的不確定性可能會持續一段時間，但我們相信我們有能力通過我們經驗豐富的團隊、價格合理的產品、靈活的批次供應以及他們強大的貿易和供應商關係來應對不斷變化的市場條件。

The strength of our balance sheet, liquidity and loan leverage provide a significant financial flexibility, and we will continue managing our product offerings, incentives, home pricing, sales pace and inventory levels to optimize returns. Mike?

我們的資產負債表、流動性和貸款槓桿的優勢提供了顯著的財務靈活性，我們將繼續管理我們的產品供應、激勵措施、房屋定價、銷售速度和庫存水平以優化回報。麥克風？

Earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 increased 53% to $4.67 per diluted share compared to $3.06 per share in the prior-year quarter. Net income for the quarter increased 48% to $1.6 billion on consolidated revenue of $8.8 billion, which was in line with our expectations. Our third quarter home sales revenues increased 18% to $8.3 billion on 21,308 homes closed, up from $7 billion on 21,588 homes closed in the prior year.

與去年同期的每股 3.06 美元相比，2022 財年第三季度的每股攤薄收益增長了 53% 至 4.67 美元。本季度淨收入增長 48% 至 16 億美元，合併收入為 88 億美元，符合我們的預期。我們第三季度的房屋銷售收入增長了 18%，達到 83 億美元，關閉了 21,308 套房屋，高於去年關閉的 21,588 套房屋的 70 億美元。

Continued construction delays caused by disruptions in the supply chain and tightness in the labor market caused us to close fewer homes than expected during the quarter. Our average closing price for the quarter was $391,200, up 20% from the prior-year quarter. Paul?

供應鏈中斷和勞動力市場緊張導致的持續建設延誤導致我們在本季度關閉的房屋數量少於預期。我們本季度的平均收盤價為 391,200 美元，比去年同期上漲 20%。保羅?

During the quarter, we continued to sell homes later in the construction cycle to better ensure the certainty of the home close date for our homebuyers, with almost no sales occurring prior to start of home construction. In June, our sales pace slowed and our cancellation rate increased when mortgage interest rates rose significantly. The cancellation rate for the third quarter was 24% compared to 17% in the prior-year quarter.

在本季度，我們繼續在建設週期的後期出售房屋，以更好地確保購房者的房屋關閉日期的確定性，在房屋建設開始之前幾乎沒有銷售發生。六月，當抵押貸款利率顯著上升時，我們的銷售速度放緩，取消率增加。第三季度的取消率為 24%，而去年同期為 17%。

As a result, our net sales orders in the third quarter decreased 7% to 16,693 homes, and our total net sales order value increased 8% from the prior year to $6.9 billion. Our average number of active selling communities increased 5% from the prior-year quarter and was up 1% sequentially. The average sales price of net sales orders in the third quarter was $415,800, up 16% from the prior-year quarter. Bill?

因此，我們第三季度的淨銷售訂單減少了 7% 至 16,693 套房屋，我們的總淨銷售訂單價值同比增長 8% 至 69 億美元。我們活躍銷售社區的平均數量比去年同期增長 5%，環比增長 1%。第三季度淨銷售訂單的平均銷售價格為 415,800 美元，比去年同期增長 16%。賬單？

Our gross profit margin on home sales revenues in the third quarter was 30.1%, up 120 basis points sequentially from the March quarter. On a per square foot basis, home sales revenues were up 3.9% sequentially while stick and brick cost per square foot increased 2.4%.

我們第三季度房屋銷售收入的毛利率為 30.1%，比 3 月季度環比增長 120 個基點。按每平方英尺計算，房屋銷售收入環比增長 3.9%，而每平方英尺的棒材和磚塊成本增長 2.4%。

The increase in our gross margin from March to June reflects the broad strength of the housing market we experienced most of this year. The strong demand for homes, combined with a limited supply allowed us to raise prices and maintain a very low level of sales incentives in most of our communities.

從 3 月到 6 月，我們毛利率的增長反映了我們今年大部分時間經歷的房地產市場的廣泛實力。對房屋的強勁需求，加上有限的供應，使我們能夠提高價格，並在我們的大多數社區保持非常低的銷售激勵水平。

As we have already mentioned, demand has moderated in June and to date in July. As we adjust to current market conditions, we expect the pace of our sales price increases to slow during the fourth quarter and for our incentive levels to increase from historical lows.

正如我們已經提到的，需求在 6 月份和 7 月份已經放緩。隨著我們適應當前的市場狀況，我們預計第四季度我們的銷售價格上漲速度將放緩，我們的激勵水平將從歷史低點增加。

To address affordability concerns, we are offering mortgage interest rate locks and buydowns to our buyers, and we are beginning to offer other sales incentives as necessary on selected homes and inventory and to drive sales traffic to our communities. We currently expect our home sales gross margin in the fourth quarter to be lower than the third quarter. Jessica?

為了解決負擔能力問題，我們正在向我們的買家提供抵押貸款利率鎖定和減持，並且我們開始根據需要對選定的房屋和庫存提供其他銷售激勵措施，並推動我們社區的銷售流量。我們目前預計第四季度的房屋銷售毛利率將低於第三季度。傑西卡？

In the third quarter, homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was 6.6%, down 50 basis points from 7.1% in the prior-year quarter. This quarter, our homebuilding SG&A expense as a percentage of revenues was lower than any quarter in our history, and we remain focused on controlling our SG&A while ensuring their infrastructure adequately supports our business. Paul?

第三季度，住宅建設 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比為 6.6%，比去年同期的 7.1% 下降 50 個基點。本季度，我們的住宅建築 SG&A 費用佔收入的百分比低於我們歷史上任何一個季度，我們仍然專注於控制我們的 SG&A，同時確保他們的基礎設施充分支持我們的業務。保羅?

We purposefully slowed our home starts to 17,900 homes this quarter, as we work to position our inventory with an appropriate number of homes relative to market conditions. We ended the quarter with 56,400 homes in inventory, up 19% from a year ago and down 6% sequentially. 27,200 of our total homes at June 30 were unsold, of which 1,400 were completed.

我們有意將本季度的房屋開工放緩至 17,900 套，因為我們努力根據市場狀況將庫存與適當數量的房屋進行定位。我們在本季度末有 56,400 套房屋庫存，比去年同期增長 19%，環比下降 6%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們共有 27,200 套房屋未售出，其中 1,400 套已完工。

For homes we closed this quarter, our construction cycle time increased by roughly 1 week compared to the second quarter as supply chain issues remain challenging as they have for the past year. However, we are beginning to see some stabilization in cycle times on homes we have recently started.

對於我們本季度關閉的房屋，與第二季度相比，我們的建設週期時間增加了大約 1 週，因為供應鏈問題仍然像過去一年一樣具有挑戰性。但是，我們開始看到我們最近開始使用的房屋的周期時間有所穩定。

During the quarter, we will evaluate demand and adjust our homes in inventory and starts pace to meet current market conditions. Mike?

在本季度，我們將評估需求並調整我們的房屋庫存，並開始適應當前的市場狀況。麥克風？

At June 30, our homebuilding lot position consisted of approximately 600,000 lots, of which 22% were owned and 78% were controlled through purchase contracts. 24% of our total owned lots are finished and 47% of our controlled lots are or will be finished when we purchase them.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們的房屋建築地塊頭寸包括約 600,000 塊地塊，其中 22% 為自有，78% 由購買合同控制。當我們購買它們時，我們擁有的總地塊中有 24% 已經完成，我們控制的地塊中有 47% 已經完成或將要完成。

Our large capital-efficient and flexible lot portfolio is a key to our strong competitive position. Our third quarter homebuilding investments in lots, land and development totaled $1.75 billion, of which $890 million was for finished lots, $680 million was for land development and $180 million was to acquire land. Paul?

我們龐大的資本效率和靈活的批量投資組合是我們強大競爭地位的關鍵。我們第三季度在地塊、土地和開發方面的住宅建設投資總額為 17.5 億美元，其中 8.9 億美元用於完工地塊，6.8 億美元用於土地開發，1.8 億美元用於購買土地。保羅?

For the third quarter, Forestar, our majority-owned residential lot development company, reported total revenues of $308.5 million and pretax income of $52.7 million. For the full year, Forestar now expects to deliver 17,000 lots and generate $1.4 billion of revenue with a pretax profit margin of greater than 14%.

第三季度，我們擁有多數股權的住宅地塊開發公司 Forestar 報告總收入為 3.085 億美元，稅前收入為 5270 萬美元。全年，Forestar 現在預計將交付 17,000 件商品並產生 14 億美元的收入，稅前利潤率超過 14%。

Forestar's owned and controlled lot position at June 30 totaled 97,000 lots, essentially flat with a year ago. 59% of Forestar's owned lots are under contract with or subject to a right of first offer to D.R. Horton. $258 million of our finished lots purchased in the third quarter were from Forestar.

截至 6 月 30 日，Forestar 擁有和控制的地塊頭寸總計 97,000 塊，與一年前基本持平。 Forestar 擁有的 59% 地塊與 D.R.霍頓。我們在第三季度購買的成品中有 2.58 億美元來自 Forestar。

Forestar is separately capitalized from D.R. Horton and had approximately $500 million of liquidity at quarter end with a net debt-to-capital ratio of 32.8%. Forestar is well positioned to meet changing market conditions with its strong capitalization, lot supply and relationship with D.R. Horton. Bill?

Forestar 與 D.R. 分開大寫。 Horton 在季度末擁有約 5 億美元的流動資金，淨債務與資本比率為 32.8%。 Forestar 憑藉其強大的資本、批量供應以及與 D.R. 的關係，能夠很好地滿足不斷變化的市場條件。霍頓。賬單？

Financial services pretax income in the third quarter was $128.3 million, with a pretax profit margin of 50.5% compared to $70.3 million and 37.3% in the prior-year quarter. The increase in our financial services pretax profit margin this quarter was primarily due to a significant acceleration of interest rate lot commitments.

第三季度金融服務稅前收入為 1.283 億美元，稅前利潤率為 50.5%，而去年同期為 7030 萬美元和 37.3%。本季度我們的金融服務稅前利潤率的增加主要是由於利率手數承諾的顯著加速。

During the third quarter, a majority of our buyers in backlog for expected fourth quarter closings entered into interest rate lot commitments. These lots were executed earlier than normal due to the increase in mortgage rates, which resulted in higher-than-normal financial services revenue in the third quarter.

在第三季度，我們為預期第四季度交割而積壓的大多數買家簽訂了利率手數承諾。由於抵押貸款利率上升，這些地塊的執行時間早於正常水平，這導致第三季度的金融服務收入高於正常水平。

This revenue acceleration will likely cause our financial services revenues and profits to be lower than normal in the fourth quarter. For the quarter, 99% of our mortgage company's loan originations related to homes closed by our homebuilding operations, and our mortgage company handled the financing for 69% of our homebuyers.

這種收入加速可能會導致我們的金融服務收入和利潤在第四季度低於正常水平。本季度，我們抵押貸款公司 99% 的貸款發放與我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋有關，我們的抵押貸款公司為 69% 的購房者處理了融資。

FHA and VA loans accounted for 41% of the mortgage company's volume. Borrowers originating loans with DHI Mortgage this quarter had an average FICO score of 724 and an average loan-to-value ratio of 88%. First-time homebuyers represented 56% of the closings handled by the mortgage company this quarter. Mike?

FHA 和 VA 貸款佔抵押貸款公司總量的 41%。本季度通過 DHI Mortgage 發放貸款的借款人平均 FICO 得分為 724，平均貸款價值比為 88%。在本季度抵押貸款公司處理的交易中，首次購房者佔 56%。麥克風？

Our rental operations generated pretax income of $43 million on revenues of $110 million in the third quarter related to the sale of 1 multifamily rental property consisting of 298 units and 1 single-family rental property totaling 84 homes. During the 9 months ended June 30, our rental operations generated pretax income of $215 million on revenues of $489 million.

我們的租賃業務在第三季度產生了 4300 萬美元的稅前收入和 1.1 億美元的收入，這與出售 1 個多戶出租物業（包括 298 個單元）和 1 個單戶出租物業（共 84 套房屋）有關。在截至 6 月 30 日的 9 個月中，我們的租賃業務產生了 2.15 億美元的稅前收入，收入為 4.89 億美元。

Our rental property inventory at June 30 was $2 billion, compared to $760 million a year ago. Rental property inventory at June 30 included approximately $700 million of multifamily rental properties and $1.3 billion of single-family rental properties.

6 月 30 日，我們的出租物業庫存為 20 億美元，而一年前為 7.6 億美元。 6 月 30 日的出租物業庫存包括約 7 億美元的多戶出租物業和 13 億美元的單戶出租物業。

As a reminder, our multifamily and single-family rental sales and inventories are reported in our rental segment and are not included in our homebuilding segments homes closed, revenues or inventories.

提醒一下，我們的多戶型和單戶型租賃銷售和庫存報告在我們的租賃部門中，不包括在我們的房屋建築部門關閉的房屋、收入或庫存中。

We continue to expect that our rental operations will generate approximately $800 million in revenues during fiscal 2022. We plan to continue growing our rental inventories as we position our rental operations to be a significant contributor to our revenues, profits and returns in future years. Bill?

我們繼續預計，我們的租賃業務將在 2022 財年產生約 8 億美元的收入。我們計劃繼續增加租賃庫存，因為我們將租賃業務定位為未來幾年收入、利潤和回報的重要貢獻者。賬單？

Our balanced capital approach focuses on being disciplined, flexible and opportunistic. At June 30, we had $2.8 billion of homebuilding liquidity, consisting of $1.2 billion of unrestricted homebuilding cash and $1.6 billion of available capacity on our homebuilding revolving credit facility.

我們的平衡資本方法側重於自律、靈活和機會主義。截至 6 月 30 日，我們擁有 28 億美元的房屋建築流動資金，其中包括 12 億美元的無限制房屋建築現金和 16 億美元的房屋建築循環信貸額度可用容量。

Our homebuilding leverage was 17% at the end of June, and homebuilding leverage net of cash was 12.1%. Our consolidated leverage at June 30 was 24.9%, and consolidated leverage net of cash was 19.3%. At June 30, our stockholders' equity was $18.1 billion and book value per share was $52, up 35% from a year ago. For the trailing 12 months ended June, our return on equity was 35.1% compared to 29.5% a year ago.

截至 6 月底，我們的房屋建築槓桿為 17%，扣除現金後的房屋建築槓桿為 12.1%。我們在 6 月 30 日的綜合槓桿率為 24.9%，扣除現金後的綜合槓桿率為 19.3%。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的股東權益為 181 億美元，每股賬面價值為 52 美元，同比增長 35%。截至 6 月的過去 12 個月，我們的股本回報率為 35.1%，而一年前為 29.5%。

During the first 9 months of the year, our cash provided by homebuilding operations was $125 million. During the quarter, we paid cash dividends of $79.2 million, and our Board has declared a quarterly dividend at the same level as last quarter to be paid in August.

今年前 9 個月，我們通過房屋建築業務提供的現金為 1.25 億美元。在本季度，我們支付了 7920 萬美元的現金股息，我們的董事會已宣布將在 8 月份支付與上一季度相同水平的季度股息。

We repurchased 4.7 million shares of common stock for $310 million during the quarter for a total of 10.5 million shares repurchased fiscal year-to-date for $854.2 million, an increase of 29% compared to the same period a year ago. As a result, our outstanding share count at June 30 was down 3% from a year ago. We still expect our outstanding share count will be approximately 3% lower at the end of fiscal 2022 than the end of fiscal 2021. Jessica?

我們在本季度以 3.1 億美元的價格回購了 470 萬股普通股，本財年迄今以 8.542 億美元的價格回購了 1,050 萬股，與去年同期相比增長了 29%。因此，我們在 6 月 30 日的流通股數量比一年前下降了 3%。我們仍然預計到 2022 財年末我們的流通股數量將比 2021 財年末低約 3%。傑西卡？

We are providing guidance for our fourth fiscal quarter. However, due to the current uncertainty in the market, the ranges for our volume and margin guidance are wider than normal.

我們正在為第四財季提供指導。然而，由於當前市場的不確定性，我們的交易量和利潤率指導範圍比正常範圍更廣。

Based on the projected completion dates of our homes under construction and current market conditions, we expect to generate consolidated revenues in the fourth quarter of $10 billion to $10.8 billion, and homes closed by our homebuilding operations to be in the range of 23,500 to 25,500 homes.

根據我們在建房屋的預計完工日期和當前市場狀況，我們預計第四季度將產生 100 億至 108 億美元的綜合收入，我們的房屋建築業務關閉的房屋將在 23,500 至 25,500 套房屋之間.

We expect our home sales gross margin in the fourth quarter to be in the range of 29% to 29.8%, and homebuilding SG&A as a percentage of revenues to be around 6.3%. We anticipate our financial services pretax profit margin in the fourth quarter to be less than 20% due to the timing of revenues from interest rate lot commitments as we discussed earlier.

我們預計第四季度我們的房屋銷售毛利率將在 29% 至 29.8% 之間，房屋建築 SG&A 佔收入的百分比約為 6.3%。由於我們之前討論過的利率批次承諾收入的時間安排，我們預計第四季度金融服務的稅前利潤率將低於 20%。

We expect our income tax rate to be approximately 24% in the fourth quarter. We plan to continue to balance our cash flow utilization priorities among our core homebuilding operations, our rental operations, maintaining conservative homebuilding leverage and strong liquidity and consistently paying dividends and repurchasing shares. David?

我們預計第四季度的所得稅率約為 24%。我們計劃繼續在核心房屋建築業務、租賃業務之間平衡現金流利用優先事項，保持保守的房屋建築槓桿和強大的流動性，並持續支付股息和回購股票。大衛？

In closing, our results and position reflect our experienced teams and production capabilities, industry-leading market share, broad geographic footprint and diverse product offerings across our multiple brands. Our strong balance sheet, liquidity and loan leverage provide us with significant financial flexibility to effectively operate in changing economic conditions and continue aggregating market share.

最後，我們的業績和地位反映了我們經驗豐富的團隊和生產能力、行業領先的市場份額、廣泛的地理足跡以及我們多個品牌的多樣化產品。我們強大的資產負債表、流動性和貸款槓桿為我們提供了顯著的財務靈活性，以便在不斷變化的經濟條件下有效運營並繼續擴大市場份額。

We plan to maintain our disciplined approach to investing capital to enhance the long-term value of the company, which includes returning capital to our shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases on a consistent basis. Thank you to the entire D.R. Horton team for your focus and hard work.

我們計劃保持嚴謹的資本投資方式，以提高公司的長期價值，其中包括通過股息和股票回購持續向股東返還資本。感謝整個 D.R.霍頓團隊為您的專注和辛勤工作。

We are incredibly well positioned to continue improving our operations and providing home ownership opportunities to more American families. This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now host questions.

我們非常有能力繼續改善我們的運營並為更多美國家庭提供置業機會。我們準備好的評論到此結束。我們現在將主持問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is coming from John Lovallo from UBS.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自瑞銀的 John Lovallo。

First question is, in early June, you had mentioned needing about 18,000 orders to hit the full-year delivery target. I mean the market has obviously changed since then, but you've delivered 59,000 year-to-date. There's another 29,000 in backlog, which would give you 88,000 deliveries without even converting any of the fourth quarter orders.

第一個問題是，6月初，您提到需要約18,000個訂單才能實現全年交付目標。我的意思是從那以後市場明顯發生了變化，但今年迄今為止你已經交付了 59,000 輛。還有 29,000 件待辦訂單，這將給您 88,000 件交付，甚至無需轉換任何第四季度訂單。

So what I'm trying to understand is, does the lower delivery outlook reflect concerns about cancellations, construction delays or both?

所以我想了解的是，較低的交付前景是否反映了對取消、施工延誤或兩者兼而有之的擔憂？

We have had continued construction delays, but we also recognize the market has softened. And so we feel like we're very well positioned to deliver on what our new guide is for closings. But as I alluded to, I mean, our ranges are bigger than they normally would be because of some of the uncertainty in the market.

我們的建設持續延誤，但我們也認識到市場已經疲軟。因此，我們覺得我們已經做好了充分的準備來提供我們新的結業指南。但正如我所提到的，我的意思是，由於市場的一些不確定性，我們的範圍比通常情況下要大。

And so there's upside to our closings guide. There's also downside. I mean we really are going to see how it plays out as we work throughout the quarter, but we're confident in our people, are going to continue to improve, and we'll ultimately see some improvement in our construction cycle times and start converting houses to closings.

所以我們的結業指南有好處。也有缺點。我的意思是，我們真的會在整個季度的工作中看到它如何發揮作用，但我們對我們的員工充滿信心，將繼續改進，我們最終會看到我們的建設週期時間有所改善並開始將房屋轉換為關閉。

Great. And then, what has been your ability to resell the cancellations? And has there been a meaningful ASP or margin hit to those sales?

偉大的。然後，您轉售取消訂單的能力如何？這些銷售是否對平均售價或利潤率造成了重大影響？

It's been -- still been very strong, John. We've still been able to resell those cancellations. It just doesn't happen immediately. By the time you resell it and requalify a buyer through the mortgage process, it could be a 4- to 8-week to 12-week process sometimes. But we're still seeing good demand for the homes that we have.

它一直——仍然非常強大，約翰。我們仍然能夠轉售這些取消。它只是不會立即發生。當您轉售它並通過抵押程序重新獲得買家資格時，有時可能需要 4 到 8 周到 12 週的過程。但我們仍然看到對我們擁有的房屋的良好需求。

And the next question is coming from Carl Reichardt from BTIG.

下一個問題來自 BTIG 的 Carl Reichardt。

I wanted to ask about the change in cancellations as you guys look at this -- is your sense that this is really just a mathematics issue, high rates, higher prices, folks can't afford? Or is this more psychological?

當你們看到這個時，我想問一下取消的變化 - 你是否覺得這真的只是一個數學問題，高利率，更高的價格，人們買不起？還是這更心理？

In other words, folks are a little scared of what the value of their house might do, they're concerned about the economy or their jobs. I'd just like sort of your sense, especially compared to past cycles of how you see the acceleration in [cans], which you'd attribute that to.

換句話說，人們有點害怕他們房子的價值可能會做什麼，他們擔心經濟或他們的工作。我只是喜歡你的感覺，尤其是與過去你如何看待[罐頭]中的加速度的周期相比，你會將其歸因於。

John, I think it's probably a little of both. I think payment shock was part of it. Toward the end of June, middle of June, we had a 100 basis point increase in long-term rates over about a 3- or 4-day period.

約翰，我想可能兩者兼而有之。我認為付款衝擊是其中的一部分。到 6 月底，也就是 6 月中旬，我們的長期利率在大約 3 或 4 天的時間裡上漲了 100 個基點。

I think, that impacted it. Most people still remember 2008, '09, '10 when -- worst housing market I've ever seen and values deteriorated, which, again, not typical in our history of our country. So [I'll pause].

我想，這影響了它。大多數人仍然記得 2008 年，09 年，10 年——我見過的最糟糕的房地產市場和價值惡化，這在我們國家的歷史上也不是典型的。所以[我會暫停]。

I mean I feel very good about where we're headed market-wise and the response we're getting as we continue to sell houses out there. So -- but you increase rates a 100 basis points in 4 days, it does impact [buyer] psyche.

我的意思是，我對我們在市場方面的發展方向以及隨著我們繼續在那裡出售房屋而得到的反應感到非常滿意。所以——但你在 4 天內將利率提高 100 個基點，它確實會影響 [買家] 的心理。

Yes. Okay. And then second question, just on the delays you're seeing in terms of vertical construction. How are delays related to horizontal? So is -- are you seeing issues that would prevent you from getting the communities open that you have internally in your plan? Or if that were to change, would that be more a function just of a slowing market?

是的。好的。然後是第二個問題，就您在垂直建設方面看到的延遲而言。延遲與水平有何關係？那麼——你是否看到了阻礙你讓社區開放的問題？或者，如果這種情況發生變化，那是否只是市場放緩的原因？

I think it's a little bit of both. But yes, I mean we have seen delays in the permitting process and bringing communities online, in addition to the delays that we've seen on the vertical side. And so if you look at that in aggregate, and hence, our guide to -- lower than what we had previously been guiding to.

我認為兩者兼而有之。但是，是的，我的意思是，除了我們在垂直方面看到的延遲之外，我們還看到了許可流程和使社區上線的延遲。因此，如果您總體來看，因此，我們的指南 - 低於我們之前的指南。

I don't think that it's getting necessarily better today, any different than -- we're starting to see it stabilize some on the vertical side. The horizontal side, I think, will continue to be a challenge in terms of bringing new communities online on time.

我不認為今天它一定會變得更好，有什麼不同 - 我們開始看到它在垂直方面穩定了一些。我認為，在讓新社區按時上線方面，橫向方面將繼續是一個挑戰。

And the next question is coming from Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Yes, I wanted to talk a little bit about your inventory management. You gave a lot of statistics that are very helpful in terms of spec levels. Your finished specs are, I think, 1,400, still pretty well below normal. Your under construction specs are quite high, and I assume that's due to the cycle time.

是的，我想談談您的庫存管理。您提供了很多統計數據，這些統計數據在規格級別方面非常有用。我認為你完成的規格是 1,400，仍然遠低於正常水平。您的在建規格非常高，我認為這是由於週期時間造成的。

So -- and then you gave some numbers around the land inventories -- land spend. So I wanted to just ask where should we be thinking your finished specs? What is the desired level that you want to get to? And as that number increases, what should we expect to see for your under construction spec levels?

所以——然後你給出了一些關於土地庫存的數字——土地支出。所以我想問一下我們應該在哪裡考慮你完成的規格？您想要達到的理想水平是多少？隨著這個數字的增加，我們應該期望看到您的在建規格水平是什麼？

And with the overarching view to try to get a sense for where your construction, your [CIP], construction and process inventory in dollars may go over the next couple of quarters as you see it?

從總體上看，試圖了解您的建設、您的 [CIP]、建設和流程庫存（以美元計）可能會在接下來的幾個季度中如您所見？

Sure, Steve. In terms of our completed spec homes, we're always looking to sell those as quickly as we can. We've been at abnormally low levels. Still the 1,400 we're at today is still relatively low. But if you look historically, we've typically been at levels quite a bit higher.

當然，史蒂夫。就我們已完成的規格房屋而言，我們一直在尋求盡快出售這些房屋。我們一直處於異常低的水平。我們今天的 1,400 點仍然相對較低。但如果你從歷史上看，我們通常處於相當高的水平。

So I think we're seeing a return to a more normal level on completed specs, but the goal will always be to not have more than 1 or 2 completed specs at a community and continue to make sure that we move through those, and that they don't age.

所以我認為我們看到已完成的規範恢復到更正常的水平，但目標始終是在社區中完成的規範不超過 1 或 2 個，並繼續確保我們通過這些，並且他們不會變老。

In terms of our overall production, historically, when we had historically normal cycle times, you could anticipate us turning our housing inventory, our number of homes and inventory twice each year. We've been a little slower than that this year with the elongated cycle times.

就我們的整體生產而言，從歷史上看，當我們有歷史上正常的周期時間時，您可以預期我們每年會兩次轉動房屋庫存、房屋數量和庫存。由於週期時間延長，我們比今年慢了一點。

But we're looking to into next year, hopeful that we'll see the improvements in cycle times and could get back to a more normal level there as well. And so we're adjusting our starts to reflect the current moderation in demand, and we'll be monitoring demand very closely to determine the appropriate level of starts, going forward.

但我們正在展望明年，希望我們能看到週期時間的改善，並在那裡恢復到更正常的水平。因此，我們正在調整我們的開工以反映當前的需求放緩，並且我們將非常密切地監控需求以確定適當的開工水平，並繼續前進。

But then, as part of that total production that we look to turn twice historically, our spec levels as a percentage of that total have ranged from the low 40s to the low 50s. And so right now, we're kind of in that normal total spec range, overall.

但是，作為我們希望在歷史上翻倍的總產量的一部分，我們的規格水平佔總產量的百分比範圍從低 40 年代到低 50 年代。所以現在，總的來說，我們處於正常的總規格範圍內。

And -- so we'll just be adjusting our starts space, looking at our overall homes and inventory and our spec levels and alongside demand over the coming months to position ourselves as best we can through the current market.

而且 - 所以我們將調整我們的啟動空間，查看我們的整體房屋和庫存以及我們的規格水平以及未來幾個月的需求，以便在當前市場中盡可能地定位自己。

So just to clarify on that, Bill, do you think that your construction in progress, in dollars, is likely to rise as we go forward here over the next couple of quarters?

所以只是澄清一下，比爾，你認為在接下來的幾個季度中，隨著我們在這裡的發展，你的在建工程（以美元計）可能會增加嗎？

I think on a cost per home basis, we have been seeing that rise with cost inflation. And so I think there's an element of that, that yes, that will remain. But our homes and inventory, our total number of homes and inventory are expected to decline in the fourth quarter from the current level. And that's fairly normal for us in the fourth quarter as well as we deliver more homes typically than we start in a fourth quarter.

我認為以每戶成本為基礎，我們已經看到隨著成本膨脹而上升。所以我認為其中有一個元素，是的，它會保留下來。但是我們的房屋和庫存，我們的房屋總數和庫存預計將在第四季度從目前的水平下降。這對我們來說在第四季度是相當正常的，而且我們通常比第四季度開始交付更多的房屋。

Yes. Okay. So you got some seasonal factors there. Shifting gears to the incentive levels, amidst this buyer strike that we got right now. I guess I'm curious, where the level of incentives are versus what is normal in your business, recognizing that recently, it's been incredibly low? But where are we now relative to what you would consider normal? And how much higher than normal do you expect to go near term, meaning in the next quarter or so?

是的。好的。所以你有一些季節性因素。在我們現在得到的買家罷工中，將齒輪轉移到激勵水平。我想我很好奇，與您的業務中的正常水平相比，激勵水平在哪裡，認識到最近，它非常低？但是相對於你認為正常的情況，我們現在處於什麼位置？您預計近期會比正常水平高多少，也就是說在下一季度左右？

I would say, right now, we're probably still lower than what we would consider a normal incentive. There are still a lot of buyers out there chasing homes. Finding qualified buyers is a little more difficult. Actually, reopening in the -- some of our sales efforts has been interesting.

我想說，現在，我們可能仍然低於我們認為的正常激勵。仍然有很多買家在那裡追逐房屋。尋找合格的買家有點困難。實際上，重新開放我們的一些銷售工作很有趣。

So -- but overall, I'd say the incentive program today is probably less than normal. I anticipate at some point, it will return to normal. There's still not a lot of inventory out there for people to buy.

所以——但總的來說，我想說今天的激勵計劃可能比平常少。我預計在某個時候，它會恢復正常。可供人們購買的庫存仍然不多。

And where they go will ultimately be tied to market demand. And we'll do what we typically do, which is manage it market by market, community by community to maximize returns.

他們的去向最終將取決於市場需求。我們將做我們通常做的事情，即逐個市場、逐個社區地管理它，以最大限度地提高回報。

And the next question is coming from Eric Bosshard from Cleveland Research Company.

下一個問題來自克利夫蘭研究公司的 Eric Bosshard。

Just curious if you could drill down a bit more to the last 30 or 45 days where you've seen the inflection. And I guess, specifically -- I understand the comment, there's still a lot of buyers out there, but curious, what has happened with cancellation rates? Obviously, the [24] in the quarter feels like that's more elevated in this more recent period of time. Where has that been? And what is the expectation for that as we look into 4Q?

只是好奇您是否可以深入研究一下您看到拐點的過去 30 或 45 天。我想，具體來說——我理解評論，仍然有很多買家，但很好奇，取消率發生了什麼？顯然，本季度的 [24] 感覺在最近一段時間內更高。那去哪兒了？當我們展望第四季度時，對此有何期望？

Cancellation rates during the quarter. In the first part of the quarter, they were in the normal range. For us, we had been, for a while, below normal. So it was in the normal range. And then it did definitely increased sharply in June, which then brought the overall average for the quarter up.

本季度的取消率。在本季度的第一部分，它們處於正常範圍內。對我們來說，我們已經有一段時間了，低於正常水平。所以在正常範圍內。然後它確實在 6 月份急劇增加，從而使該季度的整體平均水平上升。

As far as today in July, I would still say it's elevated, has not continued on a trend much higher, but it still is at an elevated level. And so we're monitoring that along with our gross sales activity and responses to incentives and other affordability measures we're trying to provide for our homebuyers. And we'll be monitoring that very closely, going forward.

到今天七月，我仍然會說它是高的，並沒有繼續走高的趨勢，但它仍然處於高位。因此，我們正在監控我們的銷售活動以及我們試圖為購房者提供的激勵措施和其他負擔能力措施的反應。我們將密切關注這一點，繼續前進。

But like we've said thus far, we're still seeing a very good level of core demand out there. We're reselling our cancellations rather smoothly thus far. And so we're hopeful that we'll find some stability here in the demand environment in our sales and [cans] environment over the next few months.

但就像我們迄今為止所說的那樣，我們仍然看到了非常好的核心需求水平。到目前為止，我們正在相當順利地轉售我們的取消訂單。因此，我們希望在接下來的幾個月裡，我們的銷售和 [罐頭] 環境的需求環境會有所穩定。

And then secondly, if you could, in terms of either mix or geography, I'm curious if there's any variation or any difference in behavior on sort of entry level versus within the move up or higher end of your price points. So from a geographic standpoint, is there any differentiation? Or is the higher rates had a similar impact across price points, product and geographies?

其次，如果可以的話，就組合或地理而言，我很好奇入門級別與價格點的上漲或高端之間的行為是否有任何變化或差異。那麼從地理的角度來看，有什麼區別嗎？或者更高的費率是否對價格點、產品和地區產生了類似的影響？

I think there's certainly more impact, potentially, on the buyers that are mortgage rate sensitive, but we still saw 56% of our closings were first-time homebuyers in the quarter. And we closed a substantial number of homes in June to those first-time homebuyers that need a place to live. We've been able to provide some interest rate lot products from our mortgage company that's given those buyers comfort and certainty around payment.

我認為對抵押貸款利率敏感的買家肯定會產生更大的影響，但我們仍然看到本季度 56% 的成交量是首次購房者。我們在 6 月為需要住所的首次購房者關閉了大量房屋。我們已經能夠從我們的抵押貸款公司提供一些利率批次產品，讓這些買家在付款方面感到舒適和確定。

But they're still buying a home out of need and necessity, buyers that are more discretionary in nature. And as question earlier alluded to qualification versus value expectations, they're probably more in the value expectations side of taking a pause this summer and seeing where the housing market goes.

但他們仍然出於需要和需要而購買房屋，這些買家在本質上更具自由裁量權。正如之前提到的關於資格與價值預期的問題，他們可能更多地處於價值預期方面，在今年夏天暫停一下，看看房地產市場的走向。

But the biggest part of our business is focused primarily on the first-time buyer, first-time move up and providing an affordable home. So we're still seeing people buying our homes out of need.

但我們業務的最大部分主要集中在首次購房者、首次升級和提供負擔得起的房屋上。因此，我們仍然看到人們出於需要購買我們的房屋。

And the next question is coming from Mike Rehaut from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

Appreciate all the comments and guidance. I wanted to drill down a little bit, if possible, on the gross margin guidance and the current rate of incentives that we've heard have increased over the last 1 or 2 months when we've heard in our conversations with different private builders, incentives are up anywhere from 100 to [300] basis points. Your guidance midpoint is down only about roughly 100 bps sequentially.

感謝所有的評論和指導。如果可能的話，我想深入了解一下毛利率指導以及我們在過去 1 或 2 個月中聽到的當前激勵率在與不同私人建築商的對話中有所增加，激勵措施提高了 100 到 [300] 個基點。您的指導中點順序僅下降了大約 100 個基點。

So it'd seem that you're at the lower end of that, let's say, if that range is accurate, the 100 to 300. So I just want to make -- does that make sense to you in terms of those comments that make sense in terms of what we've heard. And do you think this increase that you've had in the last 1 or 2 months, has that, in effect, kind of brought sales pace back into a desired level? Or are you seeing incentives continue to rise as we're working through in July?

因此，您似乎處於該範圍的低端，比如說，如果該範圍是準確的，則為 100 到 300。所以我只想說 - 就那些評論而言，這對您有意義嗎？就我們所聽到的而言是有道理的。您是否認為您在過去 1 或 2 個月內的這種增長，實際上是否使銷售速度回到了理想的水平？或者，隨著我們在 7 月份的工作，您是否看到激勵措施繼續增加？

Mike, I'll start with the gross margin, and these guys may chime in a little bit more on the trends on incentives going forward.

邁克，我將從毛利率開始，這些人可能會更多地了解未來激勵措施的趨勢。

Gross margin guide itself -- it starts with our backlog as we enter the quarter. And as we mentioned, we had a lot of buyers that locked in their mortgage rates that they're expecting to close in Q4. And so we have more visibility to those homes that we expect to close in Q4 to the margins we expect to see there. So that's the biggest piece of our visibility into our guide.

毛利率指南本身——它從我們進入本季度時的積壓開始。正如我們所提到的，我們有很多買家鎖定了他們預計在第四季度結束的抵押貸款利率。因此，我們對那些預計在第四季度關閉的房屋有更多的了解，以達到我們預計在那裡看到的利潤率。所以這是我們對指南的可見性的最大部分。

We do still have some homes that we are selling in the current quarter that we will close, and those homes are more likely to be a little more exposed to the current incentive environment. And so we'd expect there to be a few more incentives in some of those homes, which has been factored into the guide as well.

我們仍然有一些在本季度出售的房屋，我們將關閉這些房屋，這些房屋更有可能更容易受到當前激勵環境的影響。因此，我們預計其中一些家庭會有更多的激勵措施，這也已納入指南。

And so I think your comments in the market around level of incentives, I don't -- I wouldn't say those are inaccurate at all. But our closings in the coming quarter will partially reflect some of the current environment, but will also reflect some buyers that are in backlog and have their rates locked and are marching towards closing in Q4.

所以我認為你在市場上關於激勵水平的評論，我不 - 我不會說這些是不准確的。但我們下一季度的收盤將部分反映當前的一些環境，但也將反映一些積壓的買家，他們的價格已鎖定，並正朝著第四季度收盤的方向前進。

The margin guidance, we talked about earlier, is also reflective of the cost environment that we faced over the past 6 to 9 months as we started homes at different times and at different lumber pricing, frankly, was a big driver of it.

我們之前談到的利潤率指導也反映了過去 6 到 9 個月我們所面臨的成本環境，因為我們在不同的時間和不同的木材定價下開工，坦率地說，這是一個很大的驅動力。

General inflationary pressures across most of our cost categories. But certainly, the lumber has had a great deal of variability over the past 12 months. It rose significantly, fell off a bit, it went back up again and now it's back down. So as those homes push through the production process and deliver, they're going to have an impact on the gross margin as well.

我們大多數成本類別的總體通脹壓力。但可以肯定的是，在過去的 12 個月裡，木材的變化很大。它顯著上升，下降了一點，它又回升了，現在又回落了。因此，隨著這些房屋推進生產過程並交付，它們也會對毛利率產生影響。

Great. No, that's very helpful. Appreciate that color. Secondly, you highlighted earlier in your prepared remarks about the continued levels of share repurchase. How should we -- I know it's a little forward-looking. And you've been on a pace over the last couple of years, where you've been reducing your share count low single digits.

偉大的。不，這很有幫助。欣賞那個顏色。其次，您之前在準備好的評論中強調了股票回購的持續水平。我們應該如何——我知道這有點前瞻性。在過去的幾年裡，你一直在加快步伐，你一直在將你的股票數量減少到個位數。

To the extent that we're in, obviously, a little bit of a softer market and that moderately softer levels continue. How should we think about share repurchase for fiscal '23?

就我們而言，顯然，市場有點疲軟，而適度疲軟的水平仍在繼續。我們應該如何考慮 23 財年的股票回購？

And assuming things don't fall off a cliff, but they're obviously still at a more moderate rate, would you dial it back? Or given the strength of your balance sheet and still strong cash flows and very healthy margins, should we expect some level of continued share repurchase in '23?

假設事情沒有從懸崖上掉下來，但它們顯然仍然處於更溫和的速度，你會回撥嗎？或者考慮到您的資產負債表的實力以及仍然強勁的現金流和非常健康的利潤率，我們是否應該期望在 23 年繼續進行某種程度的股票回購？

Our plan from day 1 has been consistent over time, balanced with -- supporting the homebuilding inventories and funding the growth. I don't see that changing in '23, '24 or '25. We just -- our goal is to be out there, operating consistently, growing our market share, expanding homeownership opportunity for as many families as we possibly can. And I don't see that changing.

從第一天開始，我們的計劃隨著時間的推移一直是一致的，平衡了——支持房屋建築庫存並為增長提供資金。我看不到 23 年、24 年或 25 年的變化。我們只是——我們的目標是堅持不懈地運營，擴大我們的市場份額，為盡可能多的家庭擴大擁有住房的機會。而且我沒有看到這種變化。

And the next question is coming from Matthew Bouley from Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Matthew Bouley。

Just another one on gross margins, asked a different way here. I know the visibility to '23 is limited here. But I guess, in an environment where incentives do return to normal, as David alluded to earlier, just curious if you could outline kind of how the gross margin of the business might look in such a scenario.

只是另一個關於毛利率的問題，在這里以不同的方式詢問。我知道 23 年的能見度在這裡是有限的。但我想，在激勵措施確實恢復正常的環境中，正如大衛早些時候提到的那樣，我只是好奇你是否能概述一下在這種情況下企業的毛利率會如何。

Well, anytime we see a change in market conditions. And right now, we do expect the level of price increases to moderate and start to flatten out. We've already talked a bit about incentives rising. The top line is impacted quicker than our costs are. So we usually see 2 or 3 quarters where our higher costs are still coming through, and that puts some pressure on near-term margins.

好吧，只要我們看到市場狀況發生變化。目前，我們確實預計價格上漲水平將放緩並開始趨於平緩。我們已經談到了激勵措施的增加。頂線受到的影響比我們的成本更快。因此，我們通常會看到 2 或 3 個季度我們的成本仍然較高，這給近期利潤率帶來了一些壓力。

But then as that inflection begins, it opens the door up to be able to start addressing on the cost side. We've already seen some relief from lumber, which that will start to be more of a tailwind for us in coming quarters. And then other categories really beginning with labor becomes an opportunity as well.

但隨著這種拐點開始，它為能夠開始解決成本方面的問題打開了大門。我們已經看到木材的一些緩解，這將在未來幾個季度開始成為我們的順風。然後其他真正從勞動力開始的類別也成為機會。

And so our goal will be to do as much as we can on the cost side to offset the impact that we see from prices flattening and incentive levels to maintain as good a margin as we can, balance with pace to generate the best returns that we can generate. Where that will be, will depend on -- will be dependent on the strength of the housing market and demand.

因此，我們的目標是在成本方面盡我們所能來抵消我們從價格趨平和激勵水平中看到的影響，以保持盡可能好的利潤率，與速度平衡，以產生我們最好的回報可以生成。那將在哪裡，將取決於 - 將取決於房地產市場和需求的強度。

Ultimately, it's going to come down to what drives the best return for that individual [flag]. Same formula we've been working on -- working with -- for the -- coming out of the [downturn]. Our long-term focus is returning the best we can with the inventory that we put out there, and that's not going to change.

最終，這將歸結為為該個人 [flag] 帶來最佳回報的因素。我們一直在研究的相同公式 - 與 - 一起 - 走出 [經濟衰退]。我們的長期重點是用我們放在那裡的庫存盡可能地回報我們，這不會改變。

We deemphasized gross margins when we could deliver every house we wanted to build as the construction process became more and more challenging, we expanded margins because we were delivering every house we possibly could. At the end of the day, it's returned, it's ROI, it's ROE. That's our focus.

當建造過程變得越來越具有挑戰性時，當我們能夠交付我們想要建造的每一所房子時，我們不再強調毛利率，我們擴大了利潤率，因為我們盡可能地交付了每一所房子。歸根結底，它返回了，它是 ROI，它是 ROE。這是我們的重點。

Got you. That's really helpful, gentlemen. And then second one, I have to ask the impairment question, which obviously at a 30% gross margin. We're not near anything like that at this point, but given it is an investor concern here. So I guess the way to ask the question is, within your portfolio, certainly, there's going to be communities below the average by definition.

得到你。這真的很有幫助，先生們。然後第二個，我必須問減值問題，這顯然是 30% 的毛利率。在這一點上，我們還沒有接近這樣的事情，但考慮到這是投資者關注的問題。所以我想問這個問題的方式是，在你的投資組合中，肯定會有社區低於平均水平。

But is there any -- would you be able to highlight or point to any portion of the portfolio that might be more vulnerable to something like impairments, where the home price declines may not be as severe as you might look on a national average?

但是有沒有 - 您能否突出或指出投資組合中可能更容易受到損害之類的東西的任何部分，其中房價下跌可能不像您在全國平均水平上看到的那麼嚴重？

Just basically, what portion of the portfolio would you consider to be potentially more vulnerable to impairments, the longer that this type of softness in housing persists?

基本上，您認為投資組合的哪一部分可能更容易受到損害，這種住房疲軟持續的時間越長？

Sure, Matt. I think you led with the most important point, which is we're starting at a 30% gross margin. So that really signifies that we're a long way off from any sort of broad-based impairments. It would take significant margin erosion from declines in home prices.

當然，馬特。我認為您以最重要的一點為首，那就是我們從 30% 的毛利率開始。因此，這確實意味著我們距離任何類型的廣泛損害還有很長的路要走。房價下跌將嚴重侵蝕利潤率。

We don't have any projects right now that are what we deem internally on our watch list because they're approaching a gross margin that we would have to do a more thorough impairment analysis. And to really see even any sort of pickup in a watch list before we even get to the point of impairments, we'd have to see a pretty big home price decline.

我們現在沒有任何項目是我們內部認為在我們的觀察名單上的，因為它們正在接近我們必須進行更徹底的減值分析的毛利率。在我們達到減值點之前，要在觀察名單中真正看到任何形式的回升，我們必須看到房價大幅下跌。

So I wouldn't say there's any one piece of our portfolio right now that we would point to as being at higher risk than others. But certainly, as we continue to move through a market transition, if there are certain markets where home prices come down further than others, those would be the ones we'd point to first.

因此，我不會說現在我們的投資組合中有任何一部分是我們會指出的風險高於其他部分的。但可以肯定的是，隨著我們繼續進行市場轉型，如果某些市場的房價下跌幅度比其他市場更大，那麼我們首先要指出的就是這些市場。

And the next question is coming from Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

下一個問題來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

First one on incentives. And I know it's early innings as far as any meaningful increases there. But curious, what you're seeing on the elasticity of those incentives where you are offering them?

第一個關於激勵。而且我知道，就那裡的任何有意義的增長而言，這是早期的一局。但好奇的是，您對提供這些激勵措施的彈性有何看法？

Are there certain markets where perhaps the incentives have been more effective at driving increased traffic and orders? And are there markets where, based on what you're seeing so far, demand seems less elastic or maybe even inelastic to any increase in incentives?

是否有某些市場的激勵措施可能更有效地推動流量和訂單的增加？根據您目前所看到的情況，是否存在需求似乎對激勵措施的任何增加缺乏彈性甚至沒有彈性的市場？

Alan, I don't think we've seen a definite pattern as of yet. I think that the incentives that we have put out, as we've stated, are still, at this point, below historical norms, are being effective in terms of driving the traffic. Traffic in total has slowed, just based on the market conditions and the change that we've already talked about.

艾倫，我認為我們還沒有看到明確的模式。我認為，正如我們所說的那樣，我們已經推出的激勵措施在這一點上仍然低於歷史標準，在推動交通方面是有效的。僅基於市場狀況和我們已經討論過的變化，總流量已經放緩。

But generally speaking, those incentives have accomplished what we've been trying to do in terms of driving additional traffic and converting the homes as our cancellation rate has rise. We've been able to convert those homes that are completed, and we still have a lot of buyers with a near-term need to get into a house.

但總的來說，隨著取消率的上升，這些激勵措施已經完成了我們一直在努力做的事情，即增加客流量和改造房屋。我們已經能夠改造那些已經完工的房屋，而且我們仍然有很多買家近期需要入駐。

And so we'll adjust as the market needs to, flag-by-flag, community-by-community drive the returns we're looking for. And the pace is the driver of that.

因此，我們將根據市場需要進行調整，逐個標誌，逐個社區推動我們正在尋找的回報。速度是驅動力。

Got it. Appreciate that. Second question, I would love to drill in a little bit on your build-for-rent business. Only 1 community sold this quarter, which was a bit lower than the last few quarters.

知道了。感謝。第二個問題，我很想深入了解您的出租業務。本季度僅售出 1 個社區，比前幾個季度略低。

But a lot of people have kind of talked about the -- maybe the bull point where if kind of the core demand does soften for an extended period of time that there is all this capital on the sidelines targeting build-for-rent that perhaps might be able to fill at least part of that void.

但是很多人都談到了——也許是牛市點，如果某種核心需求確實在很長一段時間內疲軟，那麼所有這些資本都在觀望以建造出租為目標，這可能至少能夠填補部分空白。

So curious what you're seeing in your conversations with build-for-rent investors and the parties that you're selling these communities to. Have you seen any shift in their appetite and as you market the next round of communities? I know you have some guidance for sales in the fourth quarter or maybe even thinking about early '23. What's your expectation for the demand in the BFR space?

非常好奇您在與出租建築投資者和您將這些社區出售給的各方的對話中看到了什麼。您是否看到他們的胃口發生了任何變化，並且在您推銷下一輪社區時？我知道您對第四季度的銷售有一些指導，甚至可能考慮到 23 年初。您對 BFR 領域的需求有何期望？

We still see very strong interest when we take communities to market and still very encouraged by that. Certainly, the valuation equation is heavily impacted by long-term financing costs for those investors.

當我們將社區推向市場時，我們仍然看到非常強烈的興趣，並且仍然對此感到非常鼓舞。當然，估值等式受到這些投資者的長期融資成本的嚴重影響。

So -- and in periods of volatility in those costs in their underwriting, it's a little longer to get the process completed with these transactions, but there's still tremendous demand for them. And they're still on the front end of it, as we see these communities begin to complete units and we open up to leasing, we're still seeing strong demand for people moving into the homes.

所以 - 在他們的承保成本波動期間，完成這些交易的過程需要更長的時間，但對它們的需求仍然很大。他們仍然處於領先地位，當我們看到這些社區開始完成單元並且我們開放租賃時，我們仍然看到人們對搬入房屋的強烈需求。

And so that's ultimately very encouraging as we're creating cash flow assets that there is, as you mentioned, a lot of capital interested in investing in those assets today.

所以這最終是非常令人鼓舞的，因為我們正在創造現金流資產，正如你所提到的，今天有很多資本對投資這些資產感興趣。

A follow-up on that, if I could. Have you shifted any communities that are earlier in the planning process from for sale to for rent when you look at your total lot pipeline pushing 600,000 lots.

如果可以的話，對此進行跟進。當您查看推動 600,000 個地塊的總地塊管道時，您是否將任何處於規劃過程早期的社區從出售轉移到出租。

If you're selling 80,000 homes a year, which is kind of your run rate for the year, roughly, it would seem like that's a lot of land, probably more land than you need and perhaps there's an opportunity to shift some of that to BFR more so than perhaps you thought a quarter or 2 ago.

如果你每年賣出 80,000 套房屋，這是你當年的運行速度，粗略地說，這似乎是很多土地，可能比你需要的土地更多，也許有機會將其中的一些轉移到BFR 可能比你一季度或 2 年前想像的要多。

We certainly evaluate that in terms of demand for the -- for sale in our portfolio. If pace slows down in a given market, then our land position gets a little longer in that market.

我們當然會根據對我們投資組合中出售的需求進行評估。如果在給定市場的步伐放慢，那麼我們在該市場中的土地地位就會變得更長。

Looking for ways, we always thought build-to-rent is a great way to more rapidly monetize land positions without cannibalizing for-sale business because it's a different user of that real estate and different owner of the real estate. So it brings other capital pools to bear.

在尋找方法時，我們一直認為建造租賃是一種在不蠶食待售業務的情況下更快速地將土地位置貨幣化的好方法，因為它是該房地產的不同用戶和房地產的不同所有者。因此，它帶來了其他資本池。

So we certainly have repurposed projects that we originally may have identified 3 to 4 years ago is for sale. Today, they're being executed as for rent, and that process continues. I mean, we underwrite our land buys on the basis of a for-sale purchase. We do not look at the valuations from a build-to-rent aspect in underwriting land buys.

因此，我們當然已經重新利用了我們最初可能在 3 到 4 年前確定的待售項目。今天，他們被執行為租金，並且這個過程仍在繼續。我的意思是，我們在待售購買的基礎上承保我們的土地購買。在承銷土地購買時，我們不會從建造到出租的角度來看待估值。

And the next question is coming from Truman Patterson from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Truman Patterson。

Hoping you all could just give an update on your June order exit rate as well as what you're seeing in July. And then following up on Eric's question, one of your peers kind of gave a lay of the land, based on metro or even regional performance. Just hoping you can give some color on the out or underperforming metros.

希望大家能提供有關 6 月訂單退出率以及 7 月所見情況的最新信息。然後跟進 Eric 的問題，您的一位同行根據地鐵甚至區域表現給出了初步的看法。只是希望你能為出局或表現不佳的地鐵提供一些色彩。

I think we're all looking at each other. Can you specify your first question on exit rate again, so we make sure we answer the right question?

我想我們都在看著對方。您能否再次指定您關於退出率的第一個問題，以便我們確保回答正確的問題？

Yes, your June orders. Just trying to get an update there, what kind of the decline was and how July is trending?

是的，您的六月訂單。只是想在那裡獲得更新，下降是怎樣的，7 月的趨勢如何？

Okay. Well, we don't ever speak to monthly orders specifically. That being said, we did guide at a conference in early June that we expected our sales to be essentially flat for the quarter on a year-over-year basis, and we came in down 7%.

好的。好吧，我們從不專門討論月度訂單。話雖如此，我們確實在 6 月初的一次會議上指出，我們預計本季度的銷售額同比基本持平，下降了 7%。

So that does tell you that in most of June -- because rates spiked pretty quickly after we made those comments, most of June, we did see softening and June would have been our worst sales month of the quarter, as a result of both the moderation in demand and the pickup in [cancellation] rates that we've already talked to.

所以這確實告訴你，在 6 月的大部分時間裡——因為在我們發表這些評論後利率很快飆升，在 6 月的大部分時間裡，我們確實看到了疲軟，而 6 月將是我們本季度最糟糕的銷售月份，因為我們已經談過的需求放緩和 [取消] 率上升。

And then I think Bill said earlier in one of his Q&A responses that our [can] rate hasn't necessarily gotten worse since June, but it has stayed elevated into July, and sales have continued to be a challenge, but we do still see a decent level of demand out in the market and are selling and closing homes every day so far in July.

然後我認為比爾早些時候在他的一個問答回復中說過，我們的 [罐頭] 率自 6 月以來不一定變得更糟，但它一直保持到 7 月的高位，銷售仍然是一個挑戰，但我們仍然看到7 月份到目前為止，市場上的需求水平相當不錯，並且每天都在出售和關閉房屋。

Okay. Perfect. And then any color on any kind of problem metros or -- metros you're seeing outside strength?

好的。完美的。然後任何類型的問題地鐵上的任何顏色或 - 你看到的外部力量地鐵？

Texas, Florida, I think, are going to continue to drive national numbers. [Carolina] has continued to be stable and strong for us. We're really -- from a historical norm, from my history with the company and my history in the industry, it's a good mark. I mean, talk about some areas being stressed or problematic, it just doesn't exist today. Is there a pause? Is there a reset in kind of the prior expectation? Yes, absolutely.

我認為，德克薩斯州和佛羅里達州將繼續推動全國數據的增長。 [Carolina] 對我們來說繼續保持穩定和強大。我們真的 - 從歷史規範，從我在公司的歷史和我在行業的歷史來看，這是一個很好的標誌。我的意思是，談論一些有壓力或有問題的領域，它今天不存在。有停頓嗎？先前的期望是否有重置？是的，一點沒錯。

Payment shock when rates go up a 100 basis points in 4 days, yes, absolutely. But demographics, demand, the desire to get out of the , all those are enforced and continuing. And our expectations for next year are that we're going to get back on [pass], back on pace. So all good in D.R. Horton.

當利率在 4 天內上漲 100 個基點時，支付沖擊，是的，絕對是。但是人口統計、需求、擺脫困境的願望，所有這些都被強制執行並持續下去。我們對明年的期望是，我們將重回 [pass]，重回步伐。所以在 D.R. 中一切都很好。霍頓。

Okay. Okay. Perfect. And then Matt asked about kind of owned-land impairments. But I want to ask a little differently. You all really transformed your balance sheet compared to the prior cycle, heavy option land position. Have you all started to rework any of those deals? And what sort of market conditions would you really need to see in order to perhaps walk from any of the more recent contracts?

好的。好的。完美的。然後馬特詢問了自有土地的損害。但我想問一些不同的問題。與前一個週期相比，你們都真正改變了資產負債表，沉重的期權土地頭寸。你們都開始修改這些交易了嗎？你真的需要看到什麼樣的市場條件才能退出任何最近的合同？

We're constantly evaluating the land portfolio. That's one of the benefits of having the option position we have is that we get the chance to continue to make decisions about projects as we move through them. Those land projects that we've -- and neighborhood projects that we've identified in the portfolio, very important to the future deliveries of the company, and we're going to continue to work through those neighborhoods.

我們一直在評估土地投資組合。擁有期權頭寸的好處之一是，我們有機會在項目進行過程中繼續做出有關項目的決策。我們擁有的那些土地項目——以及我們在投資組合中確定的社區項目，對公司未來的交付非常重要，我們將繼續在這些社區開展工作。

But everybody we work with understands that we're all working together in the same market conditions and a change at the front end of selling homes to home buyers will ripple all the way through the value chain, and it starts ultimately with the land.

但與我們合作的每個人都明白，我們都在相同的市場條件下一起工作，向購房者出售房屋的前端發生的變化將波及整個價值鏈，最終從土地開始。

So we will continue to rework our portfolio as needed. And we always are continually making adjustments to reflect current on-the-ground conditions, whether it's an acceleration or deceleration of a given project.

因此，我們將繼續根據需要重新設計我們的產品組合。我們總是不斷地進行調整以反映當前的實際情況，無論是給定項目的加速還是減速。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question is coming from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

My first question is going back to lumber. There's some changes that are coming through in the future, better aligning them with how builders actually take the lumber in. Given the volatility that you're seeing and the uncertainty in demand, are you considering -- or would you think about perhaps starting to hedge some of those costs?

我的第一個問題是回到木材。未來會發生一些變化，更好地使它們與建築商實際使用木材的方式保持一致。鑑於您所看到的波動性和需求的不確定性，您是否正在考慮 - 或者您是否會考慮開始對沖其中的一些成本？

Is that a sales pitch for Goldman? Sorry.

這是對高盛的推銷嗎？對不起。

No.

不。

We have historically not tried to hedge any of those positions, and we work with our local suppliers and partners to bring the lumber to the job sites to the best value possible. We have not yet seen how those markets are going to function or evaluate it yet if that's a possibility for us. But we will certainly look at things that make sense to offset risk in our business.

從歷史上看，我們從未嘗試對沖任何這些職位，我們與當地供應商和合作夥伴合作，以盡可能高的價值將木材帶到工作現場。如果這對我們來說是可能的，我們還沒有看到這些市場將如何運作或評估它。但我們肯定會考慮對抵消業務風險有意義的事情。

Yes. Okay. Okay. I appreciate that. My second question is on land spend. You obviously talked about what you allocated in the quarter. As you think about the upcoming year, any initial thoughts on where that may go and how to think about it relative to where you've been this year and perhaps last year even?

是的。好的。好的。我很感激。我的第二個問題是關於土地支出。您顯然談到了您在本季度分配的內容。當您考慮即將到來的一年時，您是否有任何初步想法可能會去哪里以及如何相對於您今年甚至去年的情況來考慮它？

Yes, Susan, we only own about 130,000 lots today. So we are constantly buying lots more and more. A larger percentage of our purchases are of finished lots and that we essentially put into production almost on a just-in-time basis. So we'll be continuing to replenish our owned lot supply along the way. As Mike said, adjusting our option portfolio on a constant basis. So I would expect there'll still be a steady reinvestment and replenishment of our land pipeline.

是的，蘇珊，我們今天只擁有大約 130,000 件地塊。所以我們不斷地購買越來越多的東西。我們採購的大部分是成品，而且我們基本上是在準時制的基礎上投入生產的。因此，我們將在此過程中繼續補充我們擁有的地塊供應。正如邁克所說，不斷調整我們的期權組合。因此，我預計我們的土地管道仍將進行穩定的再投資和補充。

Obviously, as we see how the current market conditions transition here, we'll be evaluating the depth of demand, the strength of the demand and then positioning our land and our lots and our homes and inventory to match those conditions as we go into next year. And our spend will then align with the plans that we set.

顯然，當我們看到當前的市場狀況如何轉變時，我們將評估需求的深度、需求的強度，然後定位我們的土地、我們的地塊、我們的房屋和庫存，以適應我們接下來進入的這些條件年。然後，我們的支出將與我們制定的計劃保持一致。

And the next question is coming from Deepa Raghavan from Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Deepa Raghavan。

I had a follow-up on the prior question asked by Truman on market color. Wasn't clear if that was a volume comment that you provided or pricing? I had a question on pricing, though. Can you talk through any surprise elements within your orders' pricing trends, moderation or decline or were you surprised the resilience in some of your markets?

我對杜魯門之前就市場顏色提出的問題進行了跟進。不清楚這是您提供的大量評論還是定價？不過，我有一個關於定價的問題。您能否談談您的訂單定價趨勢、放緩或下降中的任何意外因素，或者您對某些市場的彈性感到驚訝？

Surprised. I don't know that surprise is probably a great [tone]. We're responding to -- and it's my belief, I think our belief that buyer demand is -- I mean there's still more housing formations, job creations than there are homes being built. And so I think we've talked about elongated cycles in the past. This pause disruption, could it get worse? Absolutely, it could.

驚訝。我不知道驚喜可能是一種很棒的[語氣]。我們正在回應——這是我的信念，我認為我們相信買家的需求是——我的意思是，與正在建造的房屋相比，房屋形成、創造的就業機會仍然更多。所以我認為我們過去曾討論過延長周期。這種暫停中斷，會變得更糟嗎？絕對可以。

But I've been doing this for a long time. And in a conversation with one of our regional [presidents] a couple of days ago, we were talking about the market. And he and I both have been doing this a long time. Both have been in sales models when selling homes was very difficult. And this is probably the second best market ever.

但我已經這樣做了很長時間了。幾天前，在與我們的一位地區 [總裁] 的對話中，我們談到了市場。他和我都這樣做了很長時間。當出售房屋非常困難時，兩者都處於銷售模式。這可能是有史以來第二好的市場。

So I guess -- I understand that there's uncertainty out there. But when you have people that want to buy homes, I mean, we're going to adjust, we're going to figure out how to put those people in homes. That's what we do.

所以我想——我知道那裡存在不確定性。但是當你有想買房的人時，我的意思是，我們會調整，我們會想辦法讓這些人買房。這就是我們所做的。

And -- so that's market by market, flag-by-flag, division-by-division, however you want to cut it up, we're going to build, sell, start. We're going to start, build, sella and close homes and create homeownership opportunities. That's what the mission of this company is. So that's what we're going to do.

並且 - 這是一個市場一個市場，一個標誌一個標誌，一個部門一個部門，無論你想要削減它，我們都會建造，銷售，開始。我們將開始、建造、出售和關閉房屋，並創造擁有房屋的機會。這就是這家公司的使命。這就是我們要做的。

And Deepa, just on the current trends, it's still very early to determine exactly what magnitude of adjustments may occur. We're still evaluating that on a week by week basis when -- as David said earlier, when rates spike, there's an adjustment period.

而Deepa，就目前的趨勢而言，要確定可能發生的調整幅度還為時過早。我們仍在每週評估這一點，正如大衛早些時候所說，當利率飆升時，會有一個調整期。

And we're in that adjustment period right now, where buyers are -- there's a little bit of a rate shock or a payment shock. And so they're adjusting expectations, and we're figuring out how to adjust with them to make sure we get them into the homes that they want to purchase.

我們現在正處於調整期，買家所處的位置 - 有一點利率衝擊或支付沖擊。所以他們正在調整期望，我們正在研究如何與他們一起調整，以確保我們讓他們進入他們想要購買的房屋。

Fair enough. My follow-up is on start space this quarter. The 17,000 starts pace, how much was trimmed by supply chain issues? And any thoughts on what could be a reasonable start space near term?

很公平。我的後續行動是本季度的開始空間。 17,000 次啟動速度，供應鏈問題削減了多少？對於近期合理的起始空間有什麼想法嗎？

I mean, look, frankly, I'm aware you're unable to provide volume thoughts into 2023, but under what circumstances would you expect to grow over the 85,000 units guided here for 2022, just based on the start space that you've been printing recently?

我的意思是，看，坦率地說，我知道你無法提供到 2023 年的數量想法，但在什麼情況下，你會期望在什麼情況下增長超過 2022 年指導的 85,000 單位，這只是基於你已經開始的空間最近在打印？

Deepa, looking at our starts, and we purposefully reduced that start pace over the last quarter, again, to meet the market, and that's largely from production and production capacity, we had to had big start base the prior quarters leading into this and with continued challenges in the supply chain and the labor markets, giving our chance, giving our people and our vendors the ability to catch up and move those homes forward.

迪帕，看看我們的起步，我們在上個季度故意降低了起步速度，再次，以滿足市場，這主要來自生產和生產能力，我們必須在前幾個季度有很大的起步基礎，並與供應鍊和勞動力市場的持續挑戰，給了我們機會，讓我們的員工和供應商有能力趕上並推動這些家園向前發展。

And on a go-forward basis, we'll adjust those start space to market conditions. So as we've mentioned, we're still early in this pause period and adjustment. And as we find our base, we'll maintain start space that we want to drive the units and deliveries we're looking for.

在前進的基礎上，我們將根據市場條件調整這些起始空間。因此，正如我們所提到的，我們仍處於暫停期和調整的早期階段。當我們找到我們的基地時，我們將保持我們想要驅動我們正在尋找的單位和交付的起始空間。

And too early to say anything on fiscal '23, we'll reassess in November. If we have a little bit more certainty in the market, then hopefully, we'll be in a position to give some high-level guidance for the full year, but it's going to depend on the market.

對 23 財年說任何話還為時過早，我們將在 11 月重新評估。如果我們對市場有更多的確定性，那麼希望我們能夠為全年提供一些高水平的指導，但這將取決於市場。

And if it's settled out, and we feel comfortable doing that or not, we're always going to position ourselves to grow and consolidate market share. But it's really going to be up to market conditions and what makes the most sense in terms of us maximizing our returns.

如果它解決了，無論我們是否願意這樣做，我們總是會定位自己以增長和鞏固市場份額。但這真的取決於市場條件以及對我們最大化回報而言最有意義的事情。

Part of that positioning, going into next year, is our number of homes and inventory. We have 56,000 homes in inventory, today, and we're guiding to closing between [23.5] and [25.5] in the coming quarters. So we're going to go into the year with inventory as well. And we'll supplement it with our start space in Q4 and beyond to then drive to the volume levels that will drive next year.

進入明年的部分定位是我們的房屋和庫存數量。今天，我們有 56,000 套房屋庫存，我們預計未來幾個季度將在 [23.5] 和 [25.5] 之間收盤。所以我們也將帶著庫存進入這一年。我們將在第四季度及以後用我們的起始空間來補充它，然後推動到明年將推動的音量水平。

And the next question is coming from Anthony Pettinari from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Anthony Pettinari。

This is Asher Sohnen on for Anthony. And I just wanted to ask, I think you're currently selling homes on land that was largely or at least partially put under control prior to the pandemic.

這是 Anthony 的 Asher Sohnen。我只是想問一下，我認為您目前正在出售在大流行之前大部分或至少部分受到控制的土地上的房屋。

So just looking at the prices for lots that you're putting under contract now and then trying to hold all else equal, would it be possible to sort of quantify how those gross margins on these new lots might compare to current gross margins? And just generally, very roughly, how long before you start to exhaust that favorable cost basis?

因此，只需查看您現在簽訂合同的地塊價格，然後嘗試保持其他所有條件相同，是否有可能量化這些新地塊的毛利率與當前毛利率的比較？一般來說，非常粗略地，在您開始耗盡有利的成本基礎之前需要多長時間？

Land prices vary across the country, and the rate of increases in land prices have varied. So we've talked to you each quarter what our lot costs have done on a square foot basis, and we've really not seen more than a low to mid-single-digit increase in terms of what's flowing through our closing each quarter.

全國各地的土地價格各不相同，土地價格的上漲速度也各不相同。因此，我們每個季度都與您討論了我們的地塊成本在平方英尺的基礎上所做的事情，而且就我們每個季度的收盤情況而言，我們確實沒有看到超過中低個位數的增長。

And with the vast amount of land we're buying on a quarter-to-quarter basis and it all being contracted for at different dates over -- it maybe in the last year, it may be in the last 3 years that we contracted for it, we would expect to continue to see a relatively modest increase in lot costs flowing through in our future quarter closings.

由於我們按季度購買大量土地，而且這一切都是在不同日期簽訂的——可能是在去年，也可能是在過去 3 年我們簽訂了合同它，我們預計在我們未來的季度結束時，地塊成本將繼續出現相對溫和的增長。

Understood. And then, you slowed starts this quarter to better sort of match anticipated demand, if I heard correctly. So just on a strategic level, do you see D.R. Horton is maybe trying to gain share in the housing slowdown? Or how do you think about the level of discipline around supply/demand maybe among your peers and competitors compared to prior cycles?

明白了。然後，如果我沒聽錯的話，你放慢了本季度的開局速度，以更好地匹配預期需求。所以只是在戰略層面上，你看到 D.R.霍頓可能正試圖在房地產市場放緩中分一杯羹？或者，與之前的周期相比，您如何看待您的同行和競爭對手中圍繞供需的紀律水平？

I think compared to prior cycles, the entire industry is much more disciplined, much more focused on cash flow, much more focused on return (technical difficulty) on accelerating land prices. So you look at our stores, you look at the industry stores, in June, I think, very, very fast reaction to the rate increases. We'll see what happens in July and August.

我認為與之前的周期相比，整個行業更加自律，更加關注現金流，更加關注加速土地價格的回報（技術難度）。所以你看看我們的商店，你看看行業商店，我認為，在 6 月份，對增長率的反應非常非常快。我們將看看七月和八月會發生什麼。

But our expectation is that you're going to see starts stay disciplined. And when the rates stabilize and we can adjust pricing and offerings to the buyers and they're comfortable buying them, then I think you'll see starts pick back up. But it's just a different world today than it was in '04, '05, '06. You've got a real business that's building [houses] today.

但我們的期望是你會看到開始保持紀律。當價格穩定下來並且我們可以調整價格和向買家提供的產品並且他們願意購買它們時，我認為你會看到開始回升。但今天的世界與 04、05、06 年不同。今天你有一個真正的企業正在建造[房屋]。

And then specific to market share gains, that's always a core part of our strategy.

然後具體到市場份額的增長，這始終是我們戰略的核心部分。

And the next question is coming from Rafe Jadrosich from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Rafe Jadrosich。

I just wanted to follow-up on some of the comments on the July trend. In June, you talked about the moderation with the affordability shock and the spike in mortgage rate. Has demand sort of continue to decelerate? Or have we seen sort of a stabilization and reset?

我只是想跟進有關 7 月趨勢的一些評論。 6 月，您談到了承受能力衝擊和抵押貸款利率飆升的緩和。需求是否繼續減速？還是我們看到了某種穩定和重置？

Hard to say. It's early into the quarter as to where we are. The past few summers, we've not seen much seasonal falloff. This year, I think we're seeing a little more seasonality. But we still see traffic in the models. We still see people out buying homes. It's not a zero environment. People are still moving into the homes that we complete and close. It's probably coming back to a little more normal seasonality, where the middle of the summer gets a little bit slower from a traffic perspective.

很難說。關於我們所處的位置，現在還處於本季度初期。在過去的幾個夏天，我們沒有看到太多的季節性下降。今年，我認為我們看到了更多的季節性因素。但我們仍然在模型中看到流量。我們仍然看到人們出去買房。這不是零環境。人們仍在搬進我們完成和關閉的房屋。它可能會恢復到更正常的季節性，從交通的角度來看，夏季中期會變得有點慢。

Okay. That's helpful. And then you commented on the material cost outlook and labor potentially coming down. Are you seeing land prices come down? Has there been any relief on that side with the slower demand in the market?

好的。這很有幫助。然後你評論了材料成本前景和勞動力可能下降。你看到地價下降了嗎？隨著市場需求放緩，這方面是否有任何緩解？

No, we really -- I think as you look at this process -- and again, we're really at a pause in the market, and one of the last things we see to come down is going to be the land. It's a little slower to react than -- first, we probably see it in the labor on a localized basis and then materials and then land, will adjust over time, based on market conditions, just like it always has. It's going to rise and flow a little behind housing demand.

不，我們真的 - 我認為當你看到這個過程時 - 再一次，我們真的在市場上處於停頓狀態，我們看到的最後一件事就是土地。它的反應比 - 首先，我們可能會在本地化的勞動力中看到它，然後是材料，然後是土地，會隨著時間的推移根據市場條件進行調整，就像它一直以來一樣。它將上升並略微落後於住房需求。

I will also say, Rafe. We have a very deep pipeline of [house plan] that we've controlled for multiple years. And it does put us in a position where if we see the imbalance in land pricing versus future market expectations, we don't have to buy it. We've got the ability to pause in our land acquisition for an extended period if we think that's the prudent decision.

我還要說，雷夫。我們已經控制了多年的[房屋計劃]非常深入的管道。如果我們看到土地價格與未來市場預期的不平衡，它確實使我們處於一個位置，我們不必購買它。如果我們認為這是一個審慎的決定，我們就有能力暫停我們的土地徵用很長一段時間。

And ladies and gentlemen, that's all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to hand the call back to David Auld for closing remarks.

女士們，先生們，這就是我們今天的所有提問時間。我現在想將電話轉回給 David Auld 以作閉幕詞。

Thank you, Paul. We appreciate everybody's time on the call today and look forward to speaking with you again to share our fourth quarter results in November.

謝謝你，保羅。我們感謝大家今天在電話會議上的時間，並期待再次與您交談，分享我們在 11 月的第四季度業績。

And to the D.R. Horton family, you are a driving force in the creation of affordable housing in this country. What you do is important. Don Horton and the entire executive team, thank you for your focus and hard work. Let's finish this year and move on to '23.

和 D.R.霍頓家族，你們是這個國家創造經濟適用房的推動力。你做什麼很重要。 Don Horton 和整個執行團隊，感謝你們的專注和辛勤工作。讓我們結束今年，繼續 23 年。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，並度過美好的一天。感謝您的參與。