Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some Fixed Income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, Raja Akram, with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

各位下午好或早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。在本次電話會議中，我們的集團財務主管（Group Treasurer）Richard Stewart 將帶領我們討論一些固定收益（Fixed Income）相關的主題。在隨後的問答環節，我們也邀請到財務長（CFO）Raja Akram 一同出席，回答各位的提問。配合本次主題的投影片可於我們網站 db.com 下載。簡報結束後，我們很樂意回答各位的問題。

Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，其發展未必會如我們目前所預期。因此，請留意我們資料末尾的警示性聲明。

With that, let me hand over to Richard.

那麼，接下來我把時間交給 Richard。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. We are very pleased with our first-quarter performance. We proved our resilience in an environment of heightened uncertainty and delivered record net profits as we continue to build on our strong foundations. Both our key metrics improved over the already strong prior year quarter. Post-tax return on tangible equity rose to 12.7%, and our cost-income ratio improved to below 59%. This gives us a strong start on our path towards our targets.

謝謝你，Philip，也由我向各位致意並表示歡迎。我們對第一季的表現非常滿意。在不確定性升高的環境中，我們證明了自身韌性，並在持續鞏固穩健基礎的同時，交出創紀錄的淨利。我們兩項關鍵指標皆較去年同季（本已強勁）進一步改善。稅後有形股東權益報酬率（RoTE）上升至 12.7%，成本收入比（C/I）改善至 59% 以下。這讓我們在邁向目標的道路上取得強勁開局。

We generated revenues of EUR8.7 billion, up 2% or 6% excluding FX impacts, even against the strong performance in the prior year quarter, driven by focused growth areas and improving business mix. Costs reflect disciplined execution of our strategy. We self-funded investments by realizing efficiencies as planned. Our capital position is solid. We finished the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 13.8%, well within our operating range of 13.5% to 14%.

我們創造了 87 億歐元營收，年增 2%；若排除匯率（FX）影響則年增 6%。即使去年同季表現強勁，仍在聚焦成長領域與業務組合改善的帶動下實現成長。成本反映我們對策略的紀律性執行。我們如計畫透過實現效率提升來自籌資金支持投資。我們的資本部位穩健。本季末 CET1 比率為 13.8%，穩居我們 13.5% 至 14% 的營運區間之內。

Looking at our divisional performance on slide 3, two points are clear. First, earnings mix and balance are improving. Our non-investment banking businesses with more predictable earnings streams account for a larger share of group profits compared to the same quarter of last year.

看第 3 頁投影片的各事業部表現，有兩點很清楚。第一，獲利結構與均衡性正在改善。相較去年同季，我們非投資銀行業務（獲利來源較可預測）在集團獲利中的占比更高。

Second, we have delivered strength across the board. All four divisions are due to return on tangible equity of either close to or well above 13%. The Private Bank increased client assets by EUR30 billion since the start of the year, with net assets under management inflows of EUR11 billion, primarily driven by investment products.

第二，我們在各方面都展現了強勁表現。四大事業部的有形股東權益報酬率（RoTE）皆接近或明顯高於 13%。私人銀行（Private Bank）自年初以來客戶資產增加 300 億歐元，管理資產（AUM）淨流入 110 億歐元，主要由投資產品帶動。

Asset Management achieved EUR11 billion of total net flows, mainly in passive and cash. And DWS agreed to acquire a 40% minority stake in Nippon Life India Alternative Investment Fund, reinforcing our asset gathering capacity.

資產管理（Asset Management）實現 110 億歐元的總淨流入，主要來自被動式產品與現金類產品。此外，DWS 已同意收購 Nippon Life India Alternative Investment Fund 的 40% 少數股權，強化我們的資產募集能力。

Corporate Bank saw sustained momentum in growing business volumes year on year, with loans up 6% and deposits up 2%. Investment Bank performance was again very solid this quarter. We continue to support our clients in volatile markets, with client activity up 8% despite a very strong prior year.

企業銀行（Corporate Bank）在業務量年增方面維持動能，放款成長 6%，存款成長 2%。投資銀行（Investment Bank）本季表現再次非常穩健。我們持續在波動市場中支持客戶；儘管去年基期很高，客戶活動仍成長 8%。

Some thoughts on slide 4 on our strategic direction in a dynamic operating environment, where recent geopolitical developments continue to underscore the importance of resilience and disciplined execution. While the outlook for the global economy might be uncertain, the current conflict underlines Europe's need for self-reliance and strategic autonomy and investment in defense and other capabilities.

接著談第 4 頁投影片中，我們在動態營運環境下的策略方向；近期地緣政治發展持續凸顯韌性與紀律性執行的重要性。儘管全球經濟前景可能不確定，當前衝突凸顯歐洲對自給自足與策略自主的需求，以及對國防與其他能力的投資。

When it comes to Germany, we want to reiterate that despite lower forecasted growth rates in 2026, our medium-term review is unchanged, as there are tailwinds from fiscal stimulus and we see scope for further measures going beyond the reform framework announced earlier this month. We will continue to actively leverage our leadership position in Germany. We see significant growth opportunities, including private sector investments and reforms and defense and infrastructure plans.

就德國而言，我們想重申：儘管 2026 年預測成長率較低，我們的中期評估不變，因為財政刺激帶來順風，我們也看到在本月稍早公布的改革框架之外，仍有進一步措施的空間。我們將持續積極運用我們在德國的領導地位。我們看到顯著的成長機會，包括民間投資與改革，以及國防與基礎建設計畫。

From a risk perspective, we have very limited direct exposure to the Middle East. Our portfolio performance remains well within our expectations, and we continue to monitor clients across industries. And in line with our disciplined risk framework, we put in place a management overlay to reflect broader macroeconomic uncertainties. Looking ahead, we reaffirm our confidence in reaching our strategic goals and 2028 financial targets. And much of the upside we talked about in November is already visible, providing operational flexibility to reach our financial plan and create potential for further outperformance.

從風險角度來看，我們對中東的直接曝險非常有限。我們的投資組合表現仍完全符合預期範圍內，並持續跨產業監測客戶狀況。同時，依循我們紀律性的風險框架，我們設置了管理層疊加（management overlay），以反映更廣泛的總體經濟不確定性。展望未來，我們重申對達成策略目標與 2028 年財務目標的信心。而我們在 11 月所提到的多數上行空間已經可見，為達成財務計畫提供營運彈性，並創造進一步超越目標的潛力。

We are encouraged by the progress made across our levers and the enhanced collaboration across our divisions. AI is advancing rapidly, and we are working closely across businesses and functions to make sure we deliver maximum productivity and enhance client experience. Overall, we see positive momentum in our operating environment.

我們對各項槓桿的推進進展，以及各事業部之間更緊密的協作感到鼓舞。AI 正快速發展，我們正跨業務與職能緊密合作，確保最大化生產力並提升客戶體驗。整體而言，我們看到營運環境呈現正向動能。

Turning to treasury-specific topics, starting with our net balance sheet on slide 5. We continue to operate with a strong conservative balance sheet, underpinned by robust capital and liquidity buffers that comfortably exceed regulatory requirements and support the group across cycles.

接著轉到財資（treasury）相關主題，先看第 5 頁投影片的淨資產負債表。我們持續以強健且保守的資產負債表運作，並以穩健的資本與流動性緩衝作為支撐，這些緩衝充足高於監管要求，並能在不同景氣循環中支持集團。

Loans and deposits continue to be of high quality, underpinned by a strong domestic footprint and a large base of insured retail deposits. Our funding profile is well balanced, anchored in a stable deposit base and long-term issuances. This strength allows us to support clients, absorb volatility, and invest selectively in growth opportunities.

放款與存款的品質持續維持在高水準，背後有強大的本土布局，以及龐大的受保險零售存款基礎作支撐。我們的資金來源結構相當均衡，以穩定的存款基礎與長期發行為核心。這樣的優勢使我們能支持客戶、吸收波動，並有選擇性地投資於成長機會。

Moving to capital on slide 6. Starting with the CET1 ratio, we ended the quarter at 13.8%, down 38 basis points compared to the fourth quarter, but squarely in line with our target operating range. Net income net of deductions for AT1 coupons contributed 53 basis points, reflecting strong first-quarter earnings, while deductions for distributions of 32 basis points represent the 60% payout ratio from 2026. Other deductions of 11 basis points mainly relate to equity compensation, partly offset by reduced capital deduction items.

接著看第 6 頁投影片的資本。先從 CET1 比率談起：本季末為 13.8%，較第四季下降 38 個基點，但仍完全符合我們的目標營運區間。扣除 AT1 息票（coupons）相關扣減後的淨利貢獻 53 個基點，反映第一季強勁獲利；而分配（distributions）扣減 32 個基點，代表自 2026 年起 60% 的配發率（payout ratio）。其他 11 個基點的扣減主要與股權薪酬（equity compensation）相關，部分被資本扣減項目下降所抵銷。

Turning to risk-weighted assets, RWAs increased by EUR12 billion, excluding FX effects of EUR2 billion. This was driven mainly by EUR6 billion of business growth in credit risk RWA, notably in loans in the Corporate Bank and Investment Bank, but also from derivatives and secured financing transactions. Market risk contributed an additional EUR2 billion of RWA. Other includes changes in operational risk RWAs and smaller model effects from updates to the existing models.

再看風險加權資產（RWA）：剔除 20 億歐元匯率影響後，RWA 增加 120 億歐元。主要由信用風險 RWA 的 60 億歐元業務成長所帶動，尤其是企業銀行與投資銀行的放款，同時也來自衍生性商品與擔保融資交易。市場風險另外貢獻 20 億歐元 RWA。其他項目包含作業風險 RWA 的變動，以及因更新既有模型所產生的較小模型影響。

Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements, as shown on slide 7. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 260 basis points, or EUR9 billion of CET1 capital. The quarter-on-quarter decrease reflects the lower CET1 ratio from our business growth investments, net of the reduction in the CET1 ratio requirement. The buffer to the total capital requirement is 270 basis points, a further decrease compared to the CET1 MDA, mainly from the AT1 call and Tier 2 maturity haircuts.

如第 7 頁投影片所示，我們的資本比率仍明顯高於監管要求。CET1 的 MDA 緩衝目前為 260 個基點，或 90 億歐元的 CET1 資本。季對季下降反映：在我們投入業務成長投資後 CET1 比率較低，並扣除 CET1 比率要求下降所帶來的影響。相對於總資本要求的緩衝為 270 個基點，較 CET1 MDA 進一步下降，主要來自 AT1 提前贖回（call）以及第二級資本（Tier 2）到期折減（maturity haircuts）。

On the leverage side, we ended the quarter at 4.4%, which is 12 basis points down versus the prior quarter, leaving us with an MDA buffer of EUR12 billion. The increase of EUR2 billion compared to the prior quarter is driven by a reduction in our minimum requirement from 3.85% to 3.6%, offset by a reduction in capital from our AT1 call and the increase in leverage exposure.

在槓桿率方面，我們於本季末為 4.4%，較前一季下降 12 個基點，使我們擁有 120 億歐元的 MDA 緩衝。相較前一季增加的 20 億歐元，主要由於我們的最低要求從 3.85% 降至 3.6% 所致，但部分被 AT1 赎回帶來的資本下降以及槓桿曝險增加所抵銷。

We continue to operate with significant loss-absorbing capacity, well above all requirements, as shown on slide 8. Compared to the presentation in the prior quarter, we now show the requirements in percent of RWA instead of absolute euro numbers.

我們持續維持顯著的損失吸收能力，遠高於所有要求，如投影片 8 所示。相較前一季的簡報，我們現在以 RWA 的百分比呈現要求，而非以歐元絕對金額呈現。

On the right-hand side of the slide, we show our MREL surface, both as a ratio as well as in absolute euro numbers. The MREL surface of EUR17 billion continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liabilities for at least one year. The MREL requirement will reduce by approximately 100 basis points in the second quarter based on the decision we receive from the resolution authorities. This will increase our surplus by around EUR3.5 billion.

在投影片右側，我們展示了我們的 MREL 餘度（surface），包括比率以及歐元絕對金額。170 億歐元的 MREL 餘度仍為我們提供彈性，至少可暫停發行新的合格負債一年。根據我們從處置機關收到的決定，MREL 要求將在第二季降低約 100 個基點。這將使我們的超額增加約 35 億歐元。

On slide 9, we can see that our liquidity and funding profile remained very strong in the first quarter. Our liquidity coverage ratio was 140%, which keeps us comfortably above the regulatory minimum. Compared to the seasonally elevated year-end position, both HQLA and the surplus above requirement normalized in the first quarter, while the overall liquidity position remained robust. We ended the quarter with EUR245 billion of high-quality liquid assets, and the composition of that buffer continues to be very strong, with a large majority held in cash and Level 1 securities.

在投影片 9，我們可以看到第一季我們的流動性與資金來源概況仍然非常強勁。我們的流動性覆蓋率（LCR）為 140%，使我們舒適地高於監管最低要求。相較於季節性偏高的年末水位，第一季 HQLA 與高於要求的超額均回歸常態，但整體流動性部位仍然穩健。本季末我們持有 2,450 億歐元的高品質流動性資產，其緩衝組成仍非常強健，絕大多數以現金與第 1 級證券持有。

The daily average LCR for the quarter was 139%, very close to the quarter-end level, which underlines the consistency of our liquidity position throughout the period. Our net stable funding ratio was 119%, while available stable funding increased to EUR651 billion. Overall, this continues to underscore the resilience and diversification of our liquidity and funding base.

本季每日平均 LCR 為 139%，非常接近季末水準，凸顯我們在整個期間流動性部位的一致性。我們的淨穩定資金比率（NSFR）為 119%，而可用穩定資金增加至 6,510 億歐元。整體而言，這持續凸顯我們流動性與資金來源基礎的韌性與多元化。

Looking at the development of the loan book on slide 10. During the first quarter, loans grew by EUR5 billion, adjusted for FX effects. The underlying quality of the loan book remains strong, reflecting our conservative underwriting standards across all businesses.

接著看投影片 10 的放款組合發展。第一季在剔除匯率影響後，放款增加 50 億歐元。放款組合的基本品質仍然強勁，反映我們在各項業務中採取保守的承作（授信）標準。

In the Private Bank, we continue the intended portfolio rebalancing by growing our Wealth Management franchise and delivering further reductions in the German mortgage book. Loans increased in the Corporate Bank, where we saw the encouraging growth in our Trade Finance business.

在私人銀行方面，我們持續依計畫進行投組再平衡，透過擴大財富管理業務並進一步降低德國房貸組合。企業銀行放款增加，其中我們看到貿易融資業務令人鼓舞的成長。

Within FIC Financing, the steady growth path continued, driven by new loan originations across segments. For the remainder of the year, we see further growth opportunities across all businesses, while our focus remains on value accretion and capital discipline.

在 FIC 融資業務中，穩健的成長軌跡持續，主要由各細分領域的新放款承作所帶動。展望今年剩餘時間，我們在各項業務中仍看到進一步的成長機會，同時我們的重點仍放在價值增厚與資本紀律。

Moving now to deposits on slide 11. Our well-diversified deposit book reduced by EUR8 billion to EUR687 billion during the first quarter, adjusted for FX effects. The reduction in the group deposit base is primarily driven by the Corporate Bank, where we saw a normalization of balances from the year-end spot peak, in line with our expectations and prior guidance.

接著看投影片 11 的存款。第一季在剔除匯率影響後，我們高度多元化的存款組合減少 80 億歐元至 6,870 億歐元。集團存款基礎的下降主要由企業銀行所致，我們看到餘額自年末的短期高峰回歸常態，符合我們的預期與先前指引。

In the Private Bank, deposit balances remain broadly stable, supported by continued underlying campaign inflows in Germany. The portfolio continues to be of high quality, supported by a strong domestic footprint and a substantial level of insured retail deposits. Looking ahead, our focus remains on maintaining a high portfolio quality and growing SVA-accretive deposits, both in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank.

在私人銀行方面，存款餘額大致維持穩定，受惠於德國持續的活動（campaign）資金流入。在強勁的本土據點與相當比例的受保零售存款支持下，該投組仍維持高品質。展望未來，我們的重點仍是維持高投組品質，並在私人銀行與企業銀行擴大可提升 SVA 的存款。

Moving to net interest income on slide 12. NII was strong at EUR3.5 billion in the key banking book segments and other funding. Deposit-related NII has been stable over the past year as we have successfully offset the headwinds from interest rates with volume growth in our hedge portfolio and anticipate tailwinds going forward.

接著看投影片 12 的淨利息收入。在主要銀行簿分部及其他資金來源中，NII 表現強勁，達 35 億歐元。過去一年，與存款相關的 NII 維持穩定，因為我們已成功以避險投組的規模成長抵銷利率帶來的逆風，並預期未來將出現順風。

Looking at the divisions, the Private Bank continued to show steady margin progression, driven by increasing deposit revenues in both Personal Banking and Wealth Management. The Corporate Bank net interest income was stable, with clear signs of the rate headwinds on deposit NII diminishing compared to the prior quarter. In FIC Financing, revenues remained strong, supported by ongoing loan growth.

從各事業部來看，私人銀行持續展現穩健的利差改善，主要由個人金融與財富管理兩者的存款收入增加所帶動。企業銀行的淨利息收入維持穩定，且相較前一季，存款 NII 的利率逆風減弱已有明顯跡象。在 FIC 融資方面，受持續放款成長支持，收入仍然強勁。

For the full year 2026, we expect NII across key banking book segments and other funding to increase to around EUR14 billion. The performance in the first quarter and the current view for long-term rates gives us conviction for the 2028 targets we outlined at the IDD.

就 2026 全年而言，我們預期主要銀行簿分部及其他資金來源的 NII 將增加至約 140 億歐元。第一季的表現以及目前對長期利率的看法，使我們對在 IDD 所提出的 2028 年目標更具信心。

On slide 13, which is based on the market-implied forward rates as per the end of March, you can see that the hedge portfolio provides increasing annual contributions. The yield of maturing hedges this year is around 40 basis points on average. These hedges are reinvested at the current 10-year swap rate of around 3%. More than 90% of the hedge contribution for 2026 is locked in, given our rolling structure. The total volume invested longer term stands at around EUR200 billion. While the growth of the hedge portfolio income will depend on future market developments, we currently see a positive slope at least until 2030.

在投影片 13（以 3 月底市場隱含遠期利率為基礎）中，您可以看到避險投組提供的年度貢獻逐年增加。今年到期避險的收益率平均約 40 個基點。這些避險將以目前約 3% 的 10 年期掉期利率再投資。由於我們採用滾動式結構，2026 年超過 90% 的避險貢獻已鎖定。長期投資的總規模約為 2,000 億歐元。雖然避險投組收入的成長將取決於未來市場發展，但我們目前至少看到到 2030 年之前仍呈正斜率。

Let us now look at our issuance plan on slide 14. Markets have obviously been challenging due to geopolitical uncertainty, and as a consequence, primary market activity has been lower than usual. Nonetheless, we have continued to make progress on our issuance plan. As of end of April, we have issued a total of EUR6 billion out of our EUR10 billion to EUR15 billion plan for the year, mainly driven by five benchmark transactions in three currencies.

現在讓我們看投影片 14 的發行計畫。由於地緣政治不確定性，市場顯然充滿挑戰，因此初級市場活動低於往常。儘管如此，我們仍持續在發行計畫上取得進展。截至 4 月底，我們已在全年 100 億至 150 億歐元的計畫中完成合計 60 億歐元的發行，主要由三種貨幣的五筆基準交易所帶動。

Following the EUR1 billion Tier 2 transaction in January, we issued our tightest US-dollar-denominated senior non-preferred bond in early February, as well as a EUR500 million senior green non-preferred bond, our first under the European green bond format. Later in March, we further diversified our investor base and issued our first multi-tranche panda bond transaction, totaling CNY5.5 billion. This represents the largest panda bond issuance by a commercial bank so far.

繼 1 月完成 10 億歐元的第二級資本（Tier 2）交易後，我們在 2 月初發行了我們利差最緊的美元計價高級非優先債券，並發行 5 億歐元的高級綠色非優先債券，這也是我們首筆採用歐洲綠色債券格式的交易。3 月稍晚，我們進一步多元化投資人基礎，完成首筆多券種熊貓債交易，總額 55 億人民幣。這是迄今為止商業銀行最大規模的熊貓債發行。

In early April, we issued our second US-dollar-denominator senior non-preferred transaction this year which, despite the geopolitical uncertainty, attracted over EUR6 billion in total orders. This allowed us to price a $1 billion transaction with minimal concession. We also successfully completed a tender offer for several of our Pfandbrief benchmarks, repurchasing EUR1.6 billion, which will help manage our Pfandbrief curve going forward.

4 月初，我們完成今年第二筆美元計價的高級非優先交易；儘管地緣政治不確定性存在，仍吸引超過 60 億歐元的總訂單。這使我們得以在幾乎不需讓利的情況下，為 10 億美元交易定價。我們也成功對數檔 Pfandbrief 基準券完成要約收購，回購 16 億歐元，將有助於我們未來管理 Pfandbrief 的殖利率曲線。

To sum up on slide 15, first, we are confident in our revenue ambition of around EUR33 billion, supported by key banking book, NII, and other funding growing to around EUR14 billion, as well as growth in net commission and fee income. Market-implied expectations around interest rates are a tailwind and adding to our conviction around this number.

總結第15頁，第一，我們對約330億歐元的營收目標充滿信心；該目標由銀行簿的關鍵項目、淨利息收入（NII）及其他融資收入成長至約140億歐元所支撐，並且淨手續費及佣金收入亦將成長。市場隱含的利率預期帶來順風，進一步強化我們對此數字的信念。

Second, as demonstrated, we remain firmly committed to disciplined strategy execution. On costs and our investment plans, we confirm our expense guidance and expect a gradual increase throughout the year, in line with what we said at the IDD, while retaining flexibility. In the second quarter, we expect increases in expenses, primarily from restructuring the severance costs in the Private Bank, to support our business-led front-to-back optimization agenda and generate in-year efficiencies, as well as hiring across divisions.

第二，如同所示，我們仍堅定致力於有紀律地執行策略。在成本與投資計畫方面，我們確認費用指引，並預期全年將逐步增加，與我們在IDD所述一致，同時保留彈性。在第二季，我們預期費用將上升，主要來自私人銀行重整的資遣成本，以支持我們以業務為導向的端到端（front-to-back）優化議程並在年內產生效率，同時也包括各事業部的增聘。

Third, we reiterate our guidance for provision for credit losses for 2026. Asset quality remains strong and portfolios are performing in line with expectations. We remain vigilant given the evolving macroeconomic environment and took a management overlay which may not be eventually needed when the Middle East situation normalizes.

第三，我們重申2026年信用損失準備（provision for credit losses）的指引。資產品質仍然強勁，投資組合表現符合預期。鑑於宏觀經濟環境持續演變，我們仍保持警覺，並提列了一項管理層疊加（management overlay）；當中東局勢恢復正常後，該疊加最終可能不需要。

Fourth, we are comfortable with the trajectory in profitability and continue to expect strong operating performance in 2026. Finally, we are well progressed with our issuances after an active first quarter and reflecting the lower senior issuance requirements for this year.

第四，我們對獲利能力的走勢感到安心，並仍預期2026年將有強勁的營運表現。最後，在第一季發行活動積極、且反映今年較低的優先債（senior）發行需求之下，我們的發行進度已相當順利。

With that, we look forward to your questions.

接下來，我們期待各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions) Yan Zhu, Autonomous.

(接線員指示) Yan Zhu，Autonomous。

Hi. Thanks for the presentation. We've got three questions, please. The first one is on MREL. At June 4, you discussed a potential senior non-preferred downgrade at Moody's due to the lower issuance. So we would like to understand, is there still the case? And when you expect this to happen?

您好。感謝簡報。我們有三個問題。第一個關於MREL。在6月4日，你們提到由於發行量較低，穆迪（Moody's）可能會下調高級非優先（senior non-preferred）評級。因此我們想了解，這種情況是否仍然存在？以及你們預期何時會發生？

(technical difficulty) to your NII outlook. Can you confirm your NII outlook for this year and beyond? And what is the upside from the higher rate? And lastly, on RWA, can you also comment on your RWA expectations following the strong increase in the first quarter, please? Thank you very much.

(技術問題) 關於你們的NII展望。你們能否確認今年及未來的NII展望？更高利率帶來的上行空間有多少？最後，關於RWA，能否也請你們評論在第一季大幅增加之後，你們對RWA的預期？非常感謝。

Thanks, Yan, and thank you for joining. Apologies, I couldn't quite hear all of your questions. But I think there was a question on RWA growth. I think there's one on NII. But I didn't quite catch the first one on -- was it on MREL and Moody's? I couldn't quite understand the question, if you could just repeat it?

謝謝你，Yan，也謝謝你加入。抱歉，我沒有完全聽清楚你所有的問題。但我想其中有一個是關於RWA成長。我想也有一個是關於NII。但第一個我沒有聽清楚——是關於MREL和穆迪嗎？我沒有完全理解問題，你可以再重複一次嗎？

Yeah. The Moody's is related to MREL, so we see it -- we discussed (technical difficulty) understand if this is still the case and when do you expect this to happen? And do you expect any CMDI-related rating action as well?

好的。穆迪的部分與MREL相關，所以我們看到——我們討論過（技術問題）想了解這是否仍然是現況，以及你們預期何時會發生？另外，你們是否也預期會有任何與CMDI相關的評級行動？

Okay, fine. So why don't I sort of take them in -- let's deal with the first one on MREL. So as you know, in Q -- what we announced in January, we were going to give up the LGF -- targeting the LGF 10% Moody's rating uplift that we had. And as you know, Moody's then did come out with an announcement in February which said that our deposit rating would be moved to positive outlook and that our issuer rating for senior preferred rating will be stable.

好的，沒問題。那我就依序回答——先處理第一個關於MREL的問題。如你所知，在Q——我們在1月宣布，我們將放棄原先所追求的LGF 10%穆迪評級上調（rating uplift）。而你也知道，穆迪隨後在2月發布公告，表示我們的存款評級展望將調整為正向（positive outlook），而我們的發行人評級中，優先優先（senior preferred）評級將維持穩定（stable）。

And what that does and how we think about that is we kind of think that Moody's is already reflecting the potential impacts from CMDI and LGF to some degree with that reflection in the senior ratings. So there's a positive outlook on the deposits and stable on the senior preferred rating. There is no specific way for seeing non-preferred, so it doesn't come with a dedicated outlook.

這代表什麼、以及我們如何看待：我們認為穆迪已在一定程度上，透過對優先評級的反映，納入CMDI與LGF可能帶來的影響。因此，存款為正向展望、優先優先評級為穩定。至於非優先（non-preferred），沒有特定的方式來設定，因此也不會有專屬的展望。

So what we're saying is that Moody's has already, in our opinion, kind of reflected the impact in its assessment of us. So positive for deposits, stable for senior preferred, that's both, in our opinion, for reflecting LGF and the CMGI regulation. And so what we're trying to do is work with them to try and minimize that rating volatility. So ideally, we'll be able to resolve the fundamental outlook on the deposits, as well as the final actual CMDI, without too much impact from today's ratings. So hopefully, that clarifies your question.

因此我們的意思是，依我們看法，穆迪已在其對我們的評估中某種程度反映了該影響。也就是：存款為正向、優先優先為穩定；在我們看來，兩者都反映了LGF與CMGI法規。因此我們正與他們合作，盡量降低評級波動。理想情況下，我們能在不對當前評級造成太大影響的前提下，釐清存款的基本展望，以及最終實際的CMDI結果。希望這能回答你的問題。

In terms of NII outlook, in general, higher rates are beneficial for Deutsche Bank's NII as you can consistently see in our sensitivity disclosures. Current market implied rates are higher than what we use for planning for IDD at both the long and the short end, which will result in tailwinds compared to our expectations both this year and in 2028.

就NII展望而言，一般來說，較高利率對德意志銀行的NII是有利的，這點你可以從我們一貫揭露的敏感度資訊中看到。目前市場隱含利率在長端與短端都高於我們在IDD規劃時所採用的假設，這將相較於我們的預期，為今年以及2028年帶來順風。

Our remaining sensitivity, as you can see from the slides, is quite limited for 2026, but we still have a material portion of our hedge book to roll over by 2028, so tailwind there remains subject to developments in market conditions. Now, while we're not changing our overall revenue guidance for 2026 nor '28, the interest rate developments clearly support confidence in meeting and potentially outperforming those targets that we have laid out.

如投影片所示，我們在2026年的剩餘敏感度相當有限，但到2028年我們仍有相當比例的避險部位（hedge book）需要展期（roll over），因此那部分的順風仍取決於市場條件的變化。目前我們不調整2026年或2028年的整體營收指引，但利率走勢顯然支持我們對達成、甚至可能超越既定目標的信心。

And then similar to RWA expectations -- so let me start by saying that the first-quarter RWA increase that you saw was a bit exceptional for us, driven by a few factors, and the growth in the first quarter can certainly not be extrapolated to future quarters. So first of all, the quarter-in-quarter increase included EUR2 billion for FX moves, also included EUR2 billion higher market risk RWA, reflecting a lower year-end 2025 starting point and sort of more normalized kind of level reflecting also the first-quarter volatility. Then operational risk RWA equally rose by EUR2 billion. We don't expect either of these to repeat in the second quarter.

接著談RWA預期——我先說明，你在第一季看到的RWA增加對我們而言有些特殊，是由幾個因素所驅動；第一季的成長當然不能外推到未來各季。首先，季對季的增加包含外匯變動帶來的20億歐元，也包含市場風險RWA增加20億歐元，反映2025年年底較低的起點，以及更正常化的水準，同時也反映第一季的波動。此外，作業風險RWA也同樣上升了20億歐元。我們不預期這些在第二季會重複發生。

The second point I'd make is, ex-FX, credit RWA grew by EUR8 billion in the quarter, mostly in the Investment Bank where we executed on market opportunities in our financing businesses, but also saw increases related to market volatility, notably in derivatives and SFT related to credit exposure. This explains EUR6 billion of the EUR8 billion credit RWA growth. And then the Corporate Bank and Private Bank explained the balance whereby growth was much more moderate to around EUR1 billion in each division.

第二點是，剔除外匯因素後，信用RWA在本季增加了80億歐元，主要來自投資銀行；我們在融資業務中把握市場機會，同時也看到與市場波動相關的增加，尤其是在衍生性商品與SFT（證券融資交易）方面、與信用曝險相關。這解釋了信用RWA 80億歐元成長中的60億歐元。其餘部分則由企業銀行與私人銀行貢獻，兩個事業部的成長都較為溫和，各約10億歐元。

And then let me just sort of take you back to what we said at IDD last year. So the Private Bank, we will reduce RWA from exiting sub-hurdle mortgages whilst increasing capital deployment in Wealth Management. That's kind of part of the strategy. And then also in the Corporate Bank, we will optimize within our trade finance and lending book, exiting negative SCA portfolios and shifting to more rewarding relationships. And to be clear, when doing this, the value from the overall client is paramount for us and not just individual asset returns.

最後我再帶大家回顧一下我們去年在IDD所說的內容。在私人銀行方面，我們將透過退出低於門檻（sub-hurdle）的房貸來降低RWA，同時在財富管理（Wealth Management）增加資本配置。這是策略的一部分。另外在企業銀行方面，我們將在貿易融資與放款資產組合內進行優化，退出負向SCA的投資組合，並轉向更具回報的客戶關係。需要說明的是，在執行這些調整時，對我們而言最重要的是整體客戶價值，而不僅僅是單一資產的報酬。

And so when we bring all that together, we expect significantly lower business-driven RWA growth in the second quarter and, thereafter, nothing comparable to what we saw in the first quarter. And of course, the RWA benefits from new SRT transactions will also continue to improve the velocity of the balance sheet and free up additional RWA capacity throughout the year. So I hope that gives you a little bit more color as to what we're thinking around RWA for the rest of the year.

因此，當我們把所有因素綜合起來時，我們預期第二季由業務驅動的 RWA 成長將顯著降低，而在此之後，不會再出現任何可與第一季所見相提並論的情況。當然，來自新 SRT 交易的 RWA 受益也將持續提升資產負債表的周轉速度，並在全年釋放額外的 RWA 容量。希望這能讓你對我們對今年剩餘時間 RWA 的思考多一些了解。

Lee Street, Citigroup.

Lee Street，花旗集團。

Hello. Good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one, I'd just like to ask about your thoughts on UniCredit's tender for Commerzbank, but specifically in terms of the impact on the banking sector in Germany. Any potential impact you might see on Deutsche Bank's competitive position domestically? And I guess finally, just obviously the German government has had a very strong pushback. What do you think that means for European Banking Union, cross-border, M&A, all those types of things? That would be my first question.

你好。下午好，謝謝讓我提問。第一個問題，我想請教你們對 UniCredit 對德國商業銀行（Commerzbank）提出收購要約的看法，特別是就其對德國銀行業的影響而言。你們認為這對德意志銀行在國內的競爭地位可能會有什麼影響嗎？最後，顯然德國政府已經強烈反對。你認為這對歐洲銀行聯盟、跨境併購（M&A）以及這類事情意味著什麼？這是我的第一個問題。

And the second question again on RWAs, and it links to the last question. But there's obviously been an increase in the share of Investment Bank risk-weighted assets over recent quarters. Obviously, you're taking actions to which would last some of the RWAs in the Private Bank and Corporate Bank. Should I be expecting the share of Investment Bank RWAs of overall RWAs to carry on increasing? These are an upper limit. That would be my questions. Thank you.

第二個問題同樣是關於 RWA，並且與上一個問題相關。但顯然，近幾個季度投資銀行風險加權資產在整體中的占比有所上升。顯然，你們正在採取行動，將部分 RWA 轉移到私人銀行與企業銀行。我是否應該預期投資銀行 RWA 在整體 RWA 中的占比會繼續上升？這些是否有上限？以上是我的問題。謝謝。

Hi there, Lee. This is Raja. Let me take the questions. While it's not in my position to comment on potential transactions that are in the market between two competitors, but I would just reassure you, from our perspective, it doesn't change our plan and our strategy or our competitive position and we are a market leader already. In fact, some of the returns and targets that the proposal puts out there as a potential accomplishment of, if this merger goes through, we are, from a competitive perspective in Germany, are pretty already there, so it does not put us at a competitive disadvantage.

你好，Lee。我是 Raja。我來回答這些問題。雖然我不便評論市場上兩家競爭對手之間可能進行的交易，但我想向你保證，從我們的角度來看，這不會改變我們的計畫與策略，也不會改變我們的競爭地位；我們已經是市場領導者。事實上，該提案所提出、若合併成功可能達成的一些回報與目標，就我們在德國的競爭角度而言，我們基本上已經相當接近，因此不會讓我們處於競爭劣勢。

In fact, from my perspective and our perspective, if this transaction does go through, I think there is certainly an opportunity for Deutsche Bank to, in certain cases, take market share. If you look at the Corporate Banking side, most clients would like to have at least a couple of corporate banking relationships, and in certain instances, their relationships might be the two banks that actually end up merging. So from our perspective, we could see an outcome where actually this might actually be slightly net positive for us.

事實上，從我以及我們的角度來看，如果這筆交易真的完成，德意志銀行在某些情況下確實有機會取得市占。如果你看企業銀行業務，多數客戶會希望至少維持幾個企業銀行往來關係，而在某些情況下，他們的往來關係可能正是最終要合併的那兩家銀行。因此從我們的角度，我們可能會看到一個結果：這對我們其實可能略為淨正面。

We certainly don't see it as a disadvantage. Our banks competes on being global with a 60-country network. Most of the clients that we serve want products and advanced banking advice along with just pure domestic corporate banking relationships. So net-net, I think whether this merger goes through or doesn't go through doesn't change our strategy, but I could envision a situation where it actually turns out to be a little bit net positive, both in terms of talent and as well as from a client intake perspective.

我們當然不認為這是劣勢。我們的銀行以全球化競爭，擁有覆蓋 60 個國家的網絡。我們服務的大多數客戶，除了純粹的本土企業銀行往來關係之外，也希望獲得產品與更進階的銀行建議。因此整體而言，我認為不論這項合併是否成行，都不會改變我們的策略；但我可以想像，在人才以及客戶導入的角度，最終可能對我們略為淨正面。

Now, on the whole, I think obviously the German government has its position, but the German government has also been very clear that we are -- and we are also very supportive that we need to make Europe more competitive and there should be an ability for more cross-border merger. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, whether it's in the financial services sector or outside of financial services sector. So I think anything that makes Europe more competitive, from my perspective and our perspective, is welcome.

整體來看，我想德國政府顯然有其立場，但德國政府也非常清楚地表示——而我們也非常支持——我們需要讓歐洲更具競爭力，並且應該具備進行更多跨境合併的能力。我不認為這一定是壞事，不論是在金融服務業或金融服務業以外。因此，從我以及我們的角度，任何能讓歐洲更具競爭力的事情都是受歡迎的。

In relation to your IB RWA question, I think Richard explains that this was a little bit of an unusual quarter from us from an RWA growth perspective, because obviously, the market risk RWA primarily impacts also IB. And the other thing that you have to see is that we are actually really growing the asset-light part of our businesses, meaning Asset Management and Corporate Banking, as well as Private Bank, they naturally take and consume less RWA than the Investment Bank.

關於你提到的投資銀行（IB）RWA 問題，我想 Richard 已解釋過，從 RWA 成長的角度來看，這一季對我們而言有點不尋常，因為顯然市場風險 RWA 主要也會影響投資銀行。另外你也要看到的是，我們其實正在大力成長我們業務中較「輕資產」的部分，也就是資產管理與企業銀行，以及私人銀行；相較於投資銀行，這些業務自然需要、也消耗較少的 RWA。

So in essence, if we continue to grow those businesses and maintain our competitive position in certain quarters, it might look like a bigger chunk of the RWA allocation went to IB, but that's not the strategy that we are going with at the Investor Day. I think if you look at the Investor Day guidance, we basically said that the consumption of the portion of RWA consumed by the Investment Bank is going to kind of stay the same as it was in '25, but with obviously a much larger contribution, which means even inside the Investment Bank, we are going to try to grow the capital-light businesses.

因此本質上，如果我們持續成長這些業務，並在某些季度維持我們的競爭地位，表面上可能看起來 RWA 配置有更大一部分流向投資銀行，但這並不是我們在投資人日所採取的策略。我想如果你看投資人日的指引，我們基本上表示，投資銀行所消耗的那部分 RWA 將大致維持在 2025 年的水準，但顯然會有更大的貢獻；這也意味著即使在投資銀行內部，我們也會努力成長資本占用較低的業務。

So now, I don't think that -- as Richard said, I don't think you should extrapolate the RWA growth this quarter as something that will be repetitive, neither should we look at the percentage of RWA allocated to IB as a new normal or an aspired state. Our goal is to actually keep our best-in-class big business performing, but at the same time, increase the revenue and the profit before taxes from our non-RWA consuming businesses.

所以現在，我不認為——如 Richard 所說——你應該把本季的 RWA 成長外推為會重複發生的情況；同樣地，也不應把分配給投資銀行的 RWA 占比視為新的常態或我們追求的狀態。我們的目標是讓我們同級最佳的大型業務持續良好表現，同時提高那些不消耗 RWA 的業務所帶來的營收與稅前利潤。

All right. That is very clear, actually. Thank you very much for those answers.

好的。這其實非常清楚。非常感謝你的回答。

(Operator Instructions) So it looks like there are no further questions at this time, so I would like to turn the conference back over to Philip Teuchner for any closing remarks.

（接線員指示）看起來目前沒有進一步的提問，因此我想把電話會議交回給 Philip Teuchner，請他做結語。

Thank you, Moritz. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye, and have a nice day.

謝謝你，Moritz。最後，感謝各位今天加入我們。如果你們還有任何問題，你們知道投資人關係（IR）團隊在哪裡，我們也期待很快再次與各位交流。再見，祝各位有美好的一天。