Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q2 2025 fixed income conference call and live webcast. I'm Mauritz, a Chorus Call operator. (Operator Instructions) The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 2025 年第二季固定收益電話會議和網路直播。我是 Mauritz，Chorus Call 接線生。（操作員指示）會議不得錄製以供出版或廣播。

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Philip Teuchner, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我很高興將工作交給投資人關係部門的 Philip Teuchner。先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon or good morning and thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed income-specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, James von Moltke, with us to answer your questions.

下午好或早上好，感謝大家今天參加我們的活動。在電話會議上，我們的集團財務主管理查德·斯圖爾特 (Richard Stewart) 將向我們介紹一些固定收益特定主題。在隨後的問答環節中，我們的財務長 James von Moltke 也將出席並回答大家的問題。

The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

您可以從我們的網站 db.com 下載與主題相關的投影片。演講結束後，我們很樂意解答您的問題。

Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

在我們開始之前，我只想提醒您，簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前預期的方式發展。因此，請注意我們材料末尾的預防警告。

With that, let me hand over to Richard.

說完這些，讓我把麥克風交給理查。

Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. Our first-half results demonstrate clearly where Deutsche Bank stands today. We delivered a pre-provision profit of EUR6.2 billion, nearly double the same period in 2024. Robust revenues reflect our well diversified business mix, with 74% coming from more predictable revenue streams in the corporate bank, private bank, asset management, and FIC financing.

謝謝你，菲利普，我代表我向你表示歡迎。我們的上半年業績清楚地顯示了德意志銀行目前的狀況。我們實現了撥備前利潤 62 億歐元，幾乎是 2024 年同期的兩倍。強勁的收入反映了我們多元化的業務組合，其中 74% 來自企業銀行、私人銀行、資產管理和 FIC 融資中更可預測的收入來源。

Net commission and fee income increased by 4% year on year, in line with our goal to boost revenues from fee-based and capital-light businesses. As anticipated, net interest income in key banking book segments and other funding also remained resilient. Adjusted costs remain flat, and as we intended, significant progress on our operational efficiency measures is offsetting business investments and inflation.

淨佣金及手續費收入年增4%，符合我們提高手續費型及輕資本業務收入的目標。正如預期的那樣，主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資的淨利息收入也保持了彈性。調整後的成本保持不變，正如我們預期的那樣，我們的營運效率措施取得了重大進展，抵消了業務投資和通貨膨脹的影響。

Let us now look at the divisional developments on slide 3. All four businesses delivered double-digit returns in the first half of this year. Our diversified business mix is poised to perform in a fast-changing environment, particularly as our focused investments to serve clients are paying off across the platform.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 3 上的部門發展。今年上半年，四大業務都實現了兩位數的回報。我們的多元化業務組合已準備好在快速變化的環境中發揮作用，特別是當我們專注於服務客戶的投資在整個平台上獲得回報時。

Our Corporate Bank has a leading market position in Germany, and with deep roots in our home market, is perfectly positioned to help clients capitalize on opportunities created by investment programs in Germany and Europe, as well as the improving business momentum overall.

我們的企業銀行在德國擁有領先的市場地位，並且憑藉在本土市場的深厚根基，能夠完美地幫助客戶利用德國和歐洲投資計劃以及整體業務不斷改善所創造的機會。

The Investment Bank is focused on consolidating its position as a leading European FIC franchise, whilst origination and advisory is looking to grow market share, specifically in advisory, aided by recent investments driving further revenue diversification.

投資銀行致力於鞏固其作為歐洲領先 FIC 特許經營機構的地位，而發起和諮詢業務則希望擴大市場份額，特別是在諮詢領域，並藉助近期投資推動進一步的收入多元化。

In the Private Bank, we are pleased to see the progress on our transformation reflected in the improvement in return seen year to date. Personal Banking continues to drive efficiency through workforce reductions and branch network optimization, mainly in Germany. These steps combined with increasing digitalization are enabling us to streamline operations and innovate our offerings.

在私人銀行方面，我們很高興看到我們轉型的進展體現在年初至今的回報率提高。個人銀行業務繼續透過裁減員工和優化分行網路來提高效率，主要在德國。這些舉措與日益增強的數位化相結合，使我們能夠簡化營運並創新產品。

Asset Management stands to build from its diversified assets under management of more than EUR1 trillion, and we believe it is ideally placed not only to serve German and European investors, but also to act as a gateway to Europe for global investors.

資產管理業務將依賴其管理的超過 1 兆歐元的多元化資產，我們相信，它不僅可以為德國和歐洲投資者提供服務，還可以成為全球投資者進入歐洲的門戶。

Let us now turn to our progress towards 2025 delivery on slide 4, starting with revenue growth. Since 2021, we have achieved a compound annual growth rate of 5.9% in the middle of our target range of 5.5% to 6.5%. Second, we have achieved around 90% of our EUR2.5 billion target for operational efficiencies, with EUR2.2 billion either delivered or expected from completed measures.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 4 中我們實現 2025 年交付目標的進展情況，首先是營收成長。自2021年以來，我們實現了5.9%的複合年增長率，處於5.5%至6.5%的目標區間中間。其次，我們已實現 25 億歐元營運效率目標的 90% 左右，其中已完成或預計完成的措施將達到 22 億歐元。

Third, capital efficiencies have reached a cumulative total of EUR30 billion, already at the high end of the bank's target range for full-year 2025 and contributing to our strong CET1 ratio. We delivered another EUR2 billion of RWA reductions this quarter through securitization transactions and already see opportunities to deliver further capital efficiencies in the second half of 2025.

第三，資本效率累計已達到 300 億歐元，已達到該行 2025 年全年目標範圍的高端，並有助於我們維持強勁的 CET1 比率。本季度，我們透過證券化交易減少了 20 億歐元的風險加權資產 (RWA)，並且已經看到了在 2025 年下半年進一步提高資本效率的機會。

To sum up, our first-half results demonstrate that we are on track to meet our 2025 financial targets, and we are fully focused on delivering them. In parallel, we are working on the next phase of our strategic agenda to further increase value generation beyond 2025.

總而言之，我們的上半年業績表明，我們預計將實現 2025 年財務目標，並且我們全力以赴實現這些目標。同時，我們正在製定下一階段的策略議程，以進一步提高 2025 年後的價值創造。

Turning now to net interest income on slide 5. NII across key banking book segments and other funding was EUR3.4 billion, up 5% quarter on quarter. Private Bank continues to deliver strong NII supported by a structural hedge portfolio while Corporate Bank NII remains stable, supported by the ongoing hedge rollover, loan income, and a one-off benefit from the hedge portfolio optimization. FIC financing benefited from loan growth in the first quarter, with strong lending margins offsetting FX effects.

現在就來看看投影片 5 的淨利息收入。主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資的NII為34億歐元，較上季成長5%。私人銀行在結構性對沖投資組合的支持下繼續提供強勁的 NII，而企業銀行 NII 則保持穩定，受到持續對沖展期、貸款收入以及對沖投資組合優化帶來的一次性收益的支持。固定資產投資融資受益於第一季的貸款成長，強勁的貸款利潤率抵消了外匯影響。

With respect to the full year, we confirm our NII guidance for key banking book segments and other funding of EUR13.6 billion as we continue to see a tailwind versus 2024.

就全年而言，我們確認了對主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資的 NII 指導金額為 136 億歐元，因為我們繼續看到與 2024 年相比的順風勢頭。

The underlying contribution continues to be driven by the long-term hedge portfolio rolling over at higher rates and volumes, combined with stronger lending income in FIC financing and lower funding costs. Together, those factors more than offset margin normalization and FX headwinds.

基本貢獻繼續受到長期對沖投資組合以更高的利率和交易量展期，加上固定資產融資中貸款收入增加和融資成本降低的推動。綜合起來，這些因素足以抵銷利潤率正常化和外匯不利因素的影響。

Looking at slide 6, which is based on the market-implied forward rates at quarter end, we can see that our hedge portfolio continues to position us well. In the second quarter, we have further reduced our short-term interest rate risk by terming out more of our deposit hedges, bringing the total volume invested longer term to around EUR245 billion.

看投影片 6，它基於季度末的市場隱含遠期利率，我們可以看到我們的對沖投資組合繼續保持良好的地位。在第二季度，我們透過增加存款對沖期限進一步降低了短期利率風險，使長期投資總額達到約 2,450 億歐元。

As a result, a large proportion of our future NII is now locked in. And in addition, the absolute NII contribution of the hedge portfolio is increasing steadily year over year, while the long-term euro rates remain above 1%.

結果是，我們未來國家資訊基礎設施的很大一部分現在已被鎖定。此外，對沖投資組合的絕對NII貢獻逐年穩定成長，而長期歐元利率仍維持在1%以上。

Let us now turn to quarterly developments, starting with our loan book on slide 7. During the second quarter, we have seen loan growth of EUR3 billion adjusted for FX effects. The underlying quality of the loan book remains strong, with around two-thirds of clients located in Germany and Europe.

現在讓我們來看看季度發展情況，從幻燈片 7 上的貸款帳簿開始。在第二季度，經外匯影響調整後，貸款增加了 30 億歐元。貸款帳簿的基本品質依然強勁，約三分之二的客戶位於德國和歐洲。

While our loan portfolio in the Investment Bank has further increased in line with our strategic objectives, we have also seen slight growth within our Corporate Bank segment. In the Private Bank, our focus remains on targeted mortgage reductions to optimize capital allocation.

雖然我們的投資銀行貸款組合根據我們的策略目標進一步增加，但我們的企業銀行部門也略有成長。在私人銀行，我們的重點仍然是有針對性的減少抵押貸款，以優化資本配置。

For the remainder of the year, we expect growth momentum in FIC financing to continue, while the Corporate and Private Bank are well positioned to benefit from the expected growth in Germany and Europe.

在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計固定資產投資融資的成長動能將持續下去，而企業和私人銀行也將從德國和歐洲的預期成長中受益。

Moving now to deposits on slide 8. Our well-diversified deposit book has slightly grown by EUR4 billion during the second quarter, adjusted for FX effects. The strong presence in our German home market and a significant share of insured deposits continue to demonstrate the high quality and stability of the portfolio.

現在轉到投影片 8 上的存款。經外匯影響調整後，我們多元化的存款帳簿在第二季小幅增加了 40 億歐元。我們在德國本土市場的強勁表現和相當大份額的保險存款繼續證明了投資組合的高品質和穩定性。

In the Private Bank, we continue to see strong momentum from our retail campaigns in Germany. We are pleased with the strong deposit levels in the Corporate Bank and the encouraging underlying growth in sight deposits. Looking ahead, we expect further campaign-driven growth within the German retail segment, while strategic objectives in the Corporate Bank are centered around portfolio optimizations.

在私人銀行領域，我們繼續看到德國零售業務的強勁勢頭。我們對企業銀行強勁的存款水準和活期存款令人鼓舞的潛在成長感到滿意。展望未來，我們預期德國零售業將進一步實現以活動為主導的成長，而企業銀行的策略目標則集中在投資組合優化上。

On slide 9, we highlight the development of our key liquidity metrics. The liquidity coverage ratio at the end of the second quarter increased by around 2 percentage points to 136%, mainly driven by lower net cash outflows.

在第 9 張投影片上，我們重點介紹了關鍵流動性指標的發展。第二季末流動性覆蓋率上升約2個百分點至136%，主要因淨現金流出減少。

We continue to maintain a high-quality liquidity buffer and hold about 95% of HQLA in cash at level one securities. We are comfortable with our current liquidity position, but remain focused on further strengthening the resilience of the balance sheet and growing liquidity levels. As such, we aim to conservatively align our liquidity position without having specific external liquidity targets.

我們繼續保持高品質的流動性緩衝，並持有約 95% 的一級證券 HQLA 現金。我們對目前的流動性狀況感到滿意，但仍將重點進一步增強資產負債表的彈性和提高流動性水準。因此，我們的目標是保守地調整我們的流動性狀況，而不設定具體的外部流動性目標。

The net stable funding ratio slightly increased to 120% with a surplus above regulatory requirements of EUR107 billion. This reflects our stable funding base, with more than two-thirds of the group's funding sources coming from our global deposit franchise.

淨穩定資金比率小幅上升至120%，超出監管要求的盈餘為1,070億歐元。這反映了我們穩定的資金基礎，集團三分之二以上的資金來源來自我們的全球存款業務。

Turning to capital on slide 10, strong second-quarter earnings, net of AT1 coupon and dividend deductions, combined with diligent resource management, led to a CET1 ratio of 14.2%, up 42 basis points sequentially. Lower risk-weighted assets were driven by credit risk, benefiting from continued execution of capital efficiency measures, predominantly through securitization transactions during the quarter. Market risks remained flat. Increases at the beginning of the quarter, reflecting market turbulence at the time, have been offset through strict risk management and hedging.

談到第 10 張投影片上的資本，第二季的強勁獲利（扣除 AT1 票和股利）加上勤勉的資源管理，導致 CET1 比率達到 14.2%，比上一季上升了 42 個基點。較低風險加權資產是由信用風險推動的，受益於持續執行資本效率措施，主要是透過本季的證券化交易。市場風險保持穩定。本季初的成長反映了當時的市場動盪，但已透過嚴格的風險管理和對沖來抵消。

Moving to slide 11, you can see that our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 299 basis points, or EUR10 billion of CET1 capital. The 47 basis points quarter-on-quarter increase reflects our 42 basis points higher CET1 ratio and a 5 basis points lower systemic risk capital buffer requirement where a reduction in Germany was partially offset by an increase in Italy. The buffer to the total capital requirement increased by 53 basis points and now stands at 371 basis points.

翻到第 11 張投影片，您可以看到我們的資本比率仍然遠高於監管要求。CET1 MDA 緩衝目前為 299 個基點，或 100 億歐元的 CET1 資本。環比成長 47 個基點反映了我們的 CET1 比率提高了 42 個基點，系統性風險資本緩衝要求降低了 5 個基點，其中德國的減少部分被義大利的增加所抵消。總資本要求緩衝增加了53個基點，目前為371個基點。

Moving to slide 12. Our second-quarter leverage ratio was 4.7%, up by 8 basis points, principally driven by FX effects as higher Tier 1 capital was mostly offset by higher trading inventory. We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity, well above [all] requirements as shown on slide 13. The MREL surplus, our most binding constraint, increased by EUR1 billion to EUR23 billion. Our surplus thus remains at a comfortable level, which continues to provide us with the flexibility to pause issuing new eligible liabilities instruments for at least one year.

移至投影片 12。我們第二季的槓桿率為 4.7%，上升了 8 個基點，主要是受外匯影響，因為較高的一級資本大部分被較高的交易庫存所抵銷。我們繼續以強大的損失吸收能力運營，遠高於第 13 張幻燈片所示的[所有]要求。我們最具約束力的限制因素－MREL盈餘增加了10億歐元，達到230億歐元。因此，我們的盈餘仍保持在一個舒適的水平，這為我們提供了靈活性，可以暫停發行新的合格負債工具至少一年。

Before we turn to issuance, let me quickly refer to slide 21 in the appendix, on which we offer our perspective on the bank's CRR3 disclosure. As we have laid out in the analyst call yesterday, we have a strong and credible path to mitigate the potential impacts arising from the output floor.

在我們討論發行之前，請允許我快速參考附錄中的第 21 張投影片，我們在其中提供了對銀行 CRR3 揭露的看法。正如我們昨天在分析師電話會議上所闡述的那樣，我們有一個強有力的、可靠的方法來減輕產出下限帶來的潛在影響。

The implementation of CRR3 is a multi-year journey, including several transitional arrangements that are subject to reviews and which will mostly apply through 2032. And we are not planning franchise-changing decisions today for an outcome that is almost certain to change.

CRR3 的實施是一個多年的過程，其中包括幾個需要審查的過渡安排，這些安排大部分將適用於 2032 年。我們今天不會為了幾乎肯定會改變的結果而做出改變特許經營權的決定。

Moving now to our issuance plan on slide 14. Despite geopolitical tensions and macro volatility, credit markets remain resilient in the second quarter. Our spreads developed constructively quarter on quarter, tightening by roughly 10 basis points on average in senior non-preferred, allowing us to further progress with our issuance plan at attractive funding costs.

現在轉到第 14 張投影片上的發行計畫。儘管地緣政治緊張和宏觀波動，但第二季信貸市場仍保持彈性。我們的利差逐季呈現建設性成長，高級非優先債券利差平均收窄約 10 個基點，這使我們能夠以具吸引力的融資成本進一步推進發行計畫。

We confirm our previous guidance to issue between EUR15 billion and EUR20 billion to meet 2025 funding requirements. With year-to-date issuances of EUR10.9 billion, we have already completed a little more than 60% of our 2025 plan, with the remaining residual funding focused on senior non-preferred and preferred instruments.

我們確認先前的指導方針，即發行 150 億歐元至 200 億歐元以滿足 2025 年的融資需求。今年迄今，我們已經發行了 109 億歐元債券，完成了 2025 年計畫的 60% 多一點，剩餘資金則集中用於優先非優先工具和優先債券。

Since the last fixed income call at the end of April, we issued EUR4.6 billion primarily in senior non-preferred format. The most notable transaction during the second quarter was a EUR1.5 billion senior non-preferred transaction, which attracted over EUR9 billion in total orders. In addition, we issued a multi-tranche Japanese yen transaction across both senior preferred and non-preferred.

自 4 月底上次固定收益債券募集以來，我們已發行了 46 億歐元債券，主要以高級非優先債券形式發行。第二季最引人注目的交易是一筆價值15億歐元的高級非優先交易，該交易吸引了超過90億歐元的總訂單。此外，我們也發行了多檔日圓債券交易，涵蓋優先股和非優先股。

Concerning our USD1.25 billion 6% AT1 security, with an upcoming call date in October 2025, we will take a decision closer to the call date at the end of October. Several factors will be taken into consideration, including capital demand, refinancing levels versus reset, FX effects impacting CET1, as well as market expectations.

關於我們的 12.5 億美元 6% AT1 證券，其即將到來的贖回日是 2025 年 10 月，我們將在 10 月底接近贖回日時做出決定。需要考慮的因素包括資本需求、再融資水準與重置、影響 CET1 的外匯效應以及市場預期。

This security was issued at a stronger US dollar exchange rate, and hence would have a small positive revaluation impact at current FX rates. The coupon would reset around 8.5% at currently roughly [50 basis points] above current market levels.

該證券是以較強的美元匯率發行的，因此對當前外匯匯率的重估將產生較小的正面影響。票面利率將重設為 8.5% 左右，目前約為目前市場水準的 [50 個基點]。

In terms of the timing of any call announcement, we always need to balance the desire to provide the market with certainty as soon as possible against the loss of capital at the time of the announcement. We are still assessing whether we will replace the transaction or provide further details later in the year.

對於任何贖回公告的時機，我們始終需要在盡快為市場提供確定性的願望與公告發佈時的資本損失之間取得平衡。我們仍在評估是否會在今年稍後更換交易或提供進一步的細節。

Before going to your questions, let me conclude with a summary on slide 15. We are on track to meet our full-year 2025 targets and remain comfortable with our trajectory to deliver an RoTE of above 10% and a cost-income ratio of below 65%. Our asset quality remains solid. And despite uncertainty from developments around commercial real estate, as well as the macroeconomic environment, we currently anticipate a reduction in provisioning levels in the second half of the year.

在回答你們的問題之前，請容許我先用投影片 15 做一個總結。我們預計將實現 2025 年全年目標，並對我們的軌跡感到滿意，即實現 10% 以上的 RoTE 和 65% 以下的成本收入比。我們的資產品質依然穩健。儘管商業房地產發展以及宏觀經濟環境存在不確定性，但我們目前預計下半年撥備水準將會下降。

Our improved profitability, sound risk profile and a strong balance sheet was recognized by a rating upgrade from Morningstar DBRS in June. In the same month, Fitch has raised our short-term rating on the back of improved investor confidence and resilient liquidity. Our strong capital position and second-quarter performance provide a solid foundation as we head into 2026. We have already completed around 60% of our issuance plan for the year and plan to issue primarily more senior instruments in the second half of the year.

晨星 DBRS 在 6 月對我們的評級進行了升級，這反映了我們盈利能力的提升、穩健的風險狀況和強勁的資產負債表。同月，惠譽因投資者信心增強和流動性增強而上調了我們的短期評級。我們強大的資本狀況和第二季的業績為我們邁向 2026 年奠定了堅實的基礎。我們已經完成了今年發行計畫的約60%，並計劃在下半年主要發行更高級的工具。

With that, let's now turn to your questions.

好了，現在我們來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Lee Street, Citigroup.

（操作員指示）李街，花旗集團。

Well done on the results yesterday. Three questions from me, please. Firstly, on capital, you've obviously got a new operating range. Based on that, am I supposed to think of 14% CET1 as being the floor for additional shareholder distributions and 13.5% as the floor for your MDA buffer? Is that how I should think about it? That's question one.

昨天的成績很好。請問我三個問題。首先，在資本方面，你們顯然有了新的經營範圍。基於此，我是否應該將 14% CET1 視為額外股東分配的底線，將 13.5% 視為 MDA 緩衝的底線？我該這樣想嗎？這是第一個問題。

Number two, any thoughts on ratings and ratings direction from here. You've had upgrades from DBRS and Fitch. Are you expecting anything else this year and any comments on the changes from Moody's relating to their request for comment and/or the [CMDI]?

第二，您對這裡的評級和評級方向有什麼看法嗎？您已獲得 DBRS 和 Fitch 的升級評級。今年還有什麼期待嗎？您對穆迪就其徵求意見和/或[CMDI]？

And then finally, a bigger picture one. You've mentioned on various calls in the past about playing some role in banking consolidation in Europe. Obviously, that's alive and well. I guess at the moment, it seems to be a lot easier to do deals within one country rather than across borders just based on what we see. So the question is, do you think that DB will be involved in any form of M&A over the next 18 months? Can you see any angle there?

最後，再來一幅更宏大的圖景。您在過去的各種電話會議上都提到要在歐洲銀行業整合中發揮一定作用。顯然，它依然活躍且健康。我想，就目前的情況來看，在一個國家內部做交易似乎比跨國做交易要容易得多。那麼問題是，您認為 DB 在未來 18 個月內會參與任何形式的併購嗎？你能看到那裡的任何角度嗎？

That'd be my three questions. Thank you.

這就是我的三個問題。謝謝。

Thanks, Lee. And happy Friday and thanks for joining the call. So I guess, taking your first question around capital, so what James [and Christian] was saying yesterday was that our distribution policy remains unchanged. So we intend to repatriate 50% of our earnings via dividends and share buybacks as we communicated. And this also applies in the case of CET1 ratio will be at the lower end of our target range of 13.5% to 14%.

謝謝，李。祝大家星期五愉快，謝謝您參加電話會議。所以我想，關於你關於資本的第一個問題，詹姆斯（和克里斯蒂安）昨天說的是我們的分銷政策保持不變。因此，正如我們溝通的那樣，我們打算透過股息和股票回購的方式將 50% 的收益匯回國內。這也適用於 CET1 比率處於我們 13.5% 至 14% 目標範圍下限的情況。

In addition, if we sustainably report and project a CET1 ratio above 14%, then this provides the flexibility for additional distributions. And when considering these excess capital distributions, we'll make our assessment after consideration of projected business growth and the regulatory environment at the time, no different to what we have done in the past.

此外，如果我們持續報告並預測 CET1 比率高於 14%，那麼這將為額外分配提供靈活性。在考慮這些超額資本分配時，我們會根據預期的業務成長和當時的監管環境進行評估，這與我們過去的做法沒有什麼不同。

And finally, in terms of share buybacks, they typically involve a three- to four-month regulatory review before they're announced, and we can execute it further. So we just want to make that point as well just in terms of timetables.

最後，就股票回購而言，通常需要經過三到四個月的監管審查才能宣布，我們可以進一步執行。因此，我們也想從時間表的角度來說明這一點。

And then what should be most relevant for fixed investors as you were asking about is the fact that we have increased our MDA buffers steadily over time. And now we're around 300 basis points above CET1 MDA, which is much more in line with peers. And given our own views of the world, we kind of feel that gap will continue to grow over time.

那麼，正如您所問的，對於固定投資者來說最相關的事實是，我們一直在穩步增加我們的 MDA 緩衝區。現在我們的 CET1 MDA 比平均普通股本回報率高出約 300 個基點，與同業相比更加一致。考慮到我們自己的世界觀，我們感覺這種差距會隨著時間的推移而不斷擴大。

And then in terms of rating actions, yes, we're very pleased with Morningstar DBRS upgrading all long- and short-term ratings for the bank at the end of June. That was based on the continued progress of our strategic transformation and our general path towards medium-term targets.

就評級行動而言，是的，我們很高興看到晨星 DBRS 在 6 月底上調了該銀行的所有長期和短期評級。這是基於我們策略轉型的持續進展和實現中期目標的總體路徑。

Separately, we particularly upgraded our short-term ratings. We see that as proof of improved investor confidence in our resilient liquidity position. And we're confident that the continued delivery of our targets should result in further positive rating revisions over time from other rating agencies.

另外，我們特別上調了短期評級。我們認為這是投資者對我們彈性流動性狀況信心增強的證明。我們相信，隨著我們目標的持續實現，隨著時間的推移，其他評級機構將對我們做出進一步的積極評級修正。

Of course, we are monitoring potential ramifications to arise from various industry related events. So obviously, there's a Moody's request for comment process ongoing, which the agency is seeking feedback regarding the banking methodology. But from what we can see right now, we're not expecting any repercussions on the baseline credit assessment for ourselves.

當然，我們正在監測各種產業相關事件可能產生的影響。顯然，穆迪的徵求意見流程正在進行中，該機構正在尋求有關銀行評級方法的回饋。但從我們目前看到的情況來看，我們預期這不會對我們自身的基準信用評估產生任何影響。

And then on CMDI, there's still a few open items, including the availability of the final legal text. So delivery of that is still uncertain, but sometime in the next few quarters. And then they'll take some time to transpose that international law, and then [Moody's wanting to affect that] in their ratings.

然後，在 CMDI 方面，仍有一些未解決的問題，包括最終法律文本的可用性。因此，能否實現這一目標仍不確定，但會在未來幾季內實現。然後他們會花一些時間來轉變國際法，然後穆迪希望在他們的評級中影響這一點。

But the long and the short of it from our perspective is -- our base case is we do not see any impact to our senior preferred ratings given just the overall size of our senior preferred layer we have in the stack. So that will be how I would think about the ratings picture.

但從我們的角度來看，長話短說，我們的基本情況是，考慮到我們在堆疊中擁有的高級優先層的整體規模，我們認為我們的高級優先評級不會受到任何影響。這就是我對收視率前景的看法。

James has joined us very kindly, so maybe I'll let him handle the M&A question.

詹姆斯非常友好地加入了我們，所以也許我會讓他處理併購問題。

Sure. Thanks, Richard. And Lee, thanks for the question. Really nothing's changed about our perspective. I mean, point one, as you point out, we've always sort of subscribed to the industrial logic of mergers, consolidation, scale in the banking industry, but we've also been consistent about saying that we were working on our own homework and improving Deutsche Bank before we'd consider anything. And nothing's really changed in that regard.

當然。謝謝，理查。李，謝謝你的提問。我們的觀點確實沒有任何改變。我的意思是，第一點，正如你所指出的，我們一直認同銀行業的合併、整合和規模的行業邏輯，但我們也一直堅持說，在考慮任何事情之前，我們會先做自己的功課，改進德意志銀行。在這方面，實際上什麼都沒有改變。

I wouldn't sort of commit to a timeline, so you've mentioned 18 months. As time goes on, I think we feel better prepared as the company goes from strength to strength and we get through some of the investments and remediation work we've been doing. But I don't think there's any change in terms of our thinking that we want to remain focused on self-help for now.

我不會對時間表做出承諾，所以你提到了 18 個月。隨著時間的推移，我認為隨著公司實力的不斷增強，我們完成了一些投資和補救工作，我們會感到準備更加充分。但我認為，就我們目前想要繼續專注於自助的想法而言，沒有任何改變。

As to your comment about cross-border versus domestic, I'd sort of say right now, unfortunately, Europe is showing itself to be, I'd say, whatever -- mixed about both. So that if you look at the transactions that have been in the market, there have been sort of -- there's been national resistance to national mergers. And there seems to have been political resistance to cross-border mergers. So I'm not exactly sure what the preference is.

至於您關於跨境與國內的評論，我想說，不幸的是，現在歐洲表現出了，我想說，無論如何 - 兩者兼而有之。因此，如果你觀察市場上的交易，你會發現國家層級對全國性合併有抵制。跨境合併似乎遭遇了政治阻力。所以我不太清楚偏好是什麼。

You'd like to see a world where Europe genuinely wants to function as a single market, that some of the preconditions are created in terms of the legislative environment, things like capital markets union, banking union, remove some of the frictions. And then in essence, the political sensitivity around the role of banks lessen somewhat to allow that industrial logic to take over.

你希望看到一個歐洲真正希望作為單一市場運作的世界，在立法環境方面創造一些先決條件，例如資本市場聯盟、銀行聯盟，消除一些摩擦。從本質上講，圍繞銀行角色的政治敏感性有所降低，從而允許工業邏輯佔據主導地位。

One can still dream, but that's hopefully the direction of travel ultimately. But nothing, in all of this, changes Deutsche Bank's view that we just remain focused on executing on our strategy and focus on self-help.

人們仍然可以有夢想，但希望最終這是旅行的方向。但這一切都沒有改變德意志銀行的觀點，即我們只需專注於執行我們的策略並專注於自助。

Dan David, Autonomous.

丹·戴維（Dan David），Autonomous。

Congratulations on the results. I have two sets of questions -- two topics, I should say. It's one, CRE, and the second one, just on AT1.

恭喜你取得這樣的成績。我有兩組問題──應該說是兩個主題。第一個是 CRE，第二個是 AT1。

So on US CRE, I guess, US CRE in scope of the severe stress test has reduced year on year, so [16 billion to 13 billion]. A year ago, I think you said [12 billion] was modified. What's the figure now? And then a year ago, provisions in the US book were [614 million], so roughly 4% cover on the $16 billion or 5.1% on the modified part. Can you tell us what the cumulative provisions are currently? And just any color on the drivers of the reduction of the books of sales and redemptions would be interesting. Thanks.

因此，我認為，就美國企業房地產而言，在嚴峻壓力測試範圍內，美國企業房地產的規模逐年下降，因此[160億到130億]。一年前，我認為你說的[120億]被修改了。現在的數字是多少？而一年前，美國帳簿上的撥備為 [6.14 億美元]，因此約佔 160 億美元的 4%，或占修改部分的 5.1%。您能告訴我們目前的累計準備金是多少嗎？關於銷售和贖回帳簿減少的驅動因素的任何細節都會很有趣。謝謝。

And then the second one, I just wanted a quick one on the AT1. If I look at your issuance plans, it says that you're done -- well, it says you've maybe got a little bit more AT1 to do. And you made reference to reset levels versus new issuance levels, I guess, when you assess the decision. So should we assume that you need to print new AT1 to be able to call the October 30 AT1 that's coming up, or could you call out right? Thanks.

然後第二個，我只是想在 AT1 上快速做一個。如果我查看你的發行計劃，它說你已經完成了——嗯，它說你可能還有更多的 AT1 要做。我想，當您評估該決定時，您會參考重置水平與新發行水平。那麼我們是否應該假設您需要列印新的 AT1 才能呼叫即將到來的 10 月 30 日 AT1，或者您可以直接呼叫嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Sure. So I'll take maybe the second one first if you like. So yeah, the answer's pretty simple. So I think on the slide, it shows we've issued EUR1.5 billion year to date. The range we kind of gave as guidance as part of the overall EUR15 billion to EUR20 billion of issuance was [1.5 to 3] across AT1 and Tier 2.

是的。當然。因此，如果您願意的話，我可能會先選擇第二個。是的，答案很簡單。所以我認為幻燈片上顯示我們今年迄今發行了 15 億歐元。在總發行量 150 億歐元至 200 億歐元中，我們給出的指引範圍是 AT1 和 Tier 2 的 [1.5 至 3]。

The comments I made earlier was basically just outlining, as you rightly said, the current market in terms of where we are versus (inaudible) issue in terms -- in case just the [reset spreads] obviously suggests we'd likely call and also the FX risk that we were talking about at previous AT1 calls is also positive. So I think, from our perspective, from a rational perspective, and how we kind of guide before, I think the market's kind of thinking about that the right way.

我之前所做的評論基本上只是概述，正如您所說，就當前市場而言，我們所處的位置與（聽不清楚）問題有關 - 如果只是[重置利差]顯然表明我們可能會打電話，而且我們在之前的 AT1 通話中談論的外匯風險也是積極的。因此我認為，從我們的角度來看，從理性的角度來看，以及我們之前的引導方式來看，我認為市場對此的思考方式是正確的。

And in terms of, what does that mean in terms of our plans around if we decide to do that and when we want to replace, that's been still ongoing planning process around what we can see [intel] on demand for leverage whether that makes sense. So no decision has been made on that. So that's why we're still working through that process, and we'll obviously update you guys as soon as we can decide what we want to do. But essentially, we need to make some sort of decision in the next couple of months or so.

就我們的計劃而言，如果我們決定這樣做以及何時想要替換，這意味著什麼？這仍然是一個持續的規劃過程，我們可以根據對槓桿需求的了解來判斷這是否有意義。因此目前尚未就此做出決定。這就是為什麼我們仍在努力完成這個過程，一旦我們決定了我們想要做什麼，我們就會立即向你們通報最新情況。但本質上，我們需要在接下來的幾個月左右做出某種決定。

So then on CRE, Ben, I'm not sure I got each of the questions that you asked. But I guess point one is the stress the portfolio reduces with paydowns and, to some extent, with charge-offs. So there is a modest reduction in the portfolio over time. You saw that the stress test outcome is still [1.1 billion]. I think right now we're showing cumulative credit loss allowance against that of [700 million]. So it's less than the cumulative amount of provisions we've taken because we've charged off against the allowance.

那麼關於 CRE，Ben，我不確定我是否回答了你提出的每一個問題。但我想第一點是投資組合透過償還債務以及某種程度的沖銷來減輕壓力。因此，隨著時間的推移，投資組合會適度減少。你看到壓力測試結果仍然是[11億]我認為目前我們正在顯示的是累計信用損失準備金與[7億]因此，它比我們已提取的撥備總額要少，因為我們已經從準備金中沖銷了。

I don't have the modified number just to hand, but the modifications are slowing down. So as we have chewed through the maturities, the number of loans now still to be modified in the next, say, six months has declined to a pretty modest number. And we're working to extend the loans. And whenever there is a loan that can be refinanced or modified, the goal is now to extend and put them on a stable footing.

我手頭上沒有修改後的數字，但修改的速度正在減慢。因此，當我們仔細研究這些到期貸款時，我們發現未來六個月內仍需修改的貸款數量已經下降到一個相當適度的數字。我們正在努力延長貸款期限。每當有貸款可以再融資或修改時，目標就是延長貸款期限並使其穩定下來。

And it gets to the last part of your question. So are we taking action to sort of stabilize the portfolio? For sure. It's through those modifications, refinancings, also sponsor support for the positions. But as we did last year, we've looked at specific loan sales or portfolio sales. And that's something we'll continue to do so that, over time, we shape and manage that portfolio down.

這牽涉到你問題的最後一部分。那麼我們是否正在採取行動來穩定投資組合？一定。正是透過這些修改、再融資以及贊助商對這些職位的支持。但正如我們去年所做的那樣，我們關注的是具體的貸款銷售或投資組合銷售。我們將繼續這樣做，以便隨著時間的推移，我們可以塑造和管理該投資組合。

So yes, we're taking a series of risk management actions to minimize the footprint. And as you say, the allowance level has continued to build over time against the remaining exposure. I won't say we're out of the woods. As said in yesterday's call, it's a little bit past dependent on each of the individual buildings and projects and sponsor behavior around those buildings and projects. So it's something we're still working on. But again, to your question, yes, we're doing what we can in terms of risk-minimizing actions.

是的，我們正在採取一系列風險管理措施來盡量減少影響。正如您所說，隨著時間的推移，配額水準相對於剩餘的風險敞口不斷增加。我不會說我們已經脫離險境。正如昨天的電話會議中所說，這有點依賴於每個單獨的建築物和項目以及圍繞這些建築物和項目的贊助商行為。所以這是我們仍在努力的事情。但再次回答您的問題，是的，我們正在盡我們所能採取風險最小化措施。

Robert Smalley, Verition.

羅伯特·斯莫利（Robert Smalley），Verition。

Couple of questions. One, with respect to the results, the trading lines were very strong. Could you talk a little bit about investment banking pipeline coming up, particularly in Europe, for the second half of the year, and if we'll see that start to come through as well?

幾個問題。首先，就結果而言，交易線非常強勁。您能否談談今年下半年即將開展的投資銀行業務，特別是在歐洲的業務，以及我們是否也會看到這些業務開始開展？

Secondly, we talked a little bit on the last call about NDFI lending. And there is a lot of nomenclature issues around that. So specifically, could you talk about your lending to alternative asset managers and BDCs, and let's winnow that out from asset-backed products, et cetera.

其次，我們在上次電話會議上討論了 NDFI 貸款問題。這方面有許多命名問題。那麼具體來說，您能否談談您向另類資產管理公司和 BDC 提供的貸款，讓我們從資產支援產品等方面篩選出這些貸款。

And then third, just as a follow-up on the CRE point, now that we're starting to see more visibility around price, as you go through this portfolio, which is admittedly lumpy and has its own quirks, can we see a more accelerated timeline to get through this and maybe in a quarter or two provisioning, et cetera, will start to come down meaningfully? Thanks.

第三，作為對 CRE 觀點的後續跟進，既然我們開始看到價格更加清晰，當您瀏覽這個投資組合時，它無疑是不穩定的，並且有其自身的怪癖，我們是否可以看到一個更快的時間表來度過這一難關，也許在一兩個季度內，撥備等將開始顯著下降？謝謝。

So Robert, I don't have the pipeline broken down by Europe. We tend to look at it on a product basis, but it's strong. Remember that the most visible pipeline we have is either M&A transactions that are announced pending closure or where we are signed up and are working with the client to bring it to announcement and then closure.

羅伯特，我沒有按歐洲細分的管道。我們傾向於從產品的角度來看待它，但它很強大。請記住，我們最明顯的管道要么是宣布待完成的併購交易，要么是我們已經簽約並與客戶合作宣布並完成的交易。

Equity pipeline, those two look strong in terms of mandated pipelines, but as you saw in the equity pipeline, and it's true also of the advisory pipeline, clients need to see stability in the markets, kind of visible prices in order to transact. And so there's been a sort of delay and, therefore, an increasing backlog.

股權管道，從強制管道來看，這兩個管道看起來很強勁，但正如您在股權管道中看到的，而且對於諮詢管道也是如此，客戶需要看到市場的穩定性，有可見的價格才能進行交易。因此出現了某種延遲，積壓的工作也隨之增加。

As you've heard from us and other competitors, we like how the pipeline has shaped up, and it's stronger than it was this time last year considerably but, of course, sort of transacting is a different question and there's been delays and, in certain cases, transactions that didn't get to market.

正如您從我們和其他競爭對手那裡聽到的那樣，我們喜歡渠道的形成方式，它比去年同期要強大得多，但當然，交易是另一個問題，並且存在延遲，在某些情況下，交易沒有進入市場。

The debt capital markets pipeline is much shorter term, so between from mandated -- from being mandated to transaction execution and fee realization. There, you saw in the second quarter, really a stop for practical purposes. There's a very significant decline in activity in April and then a recovery through May and June.

債務資本市場管道的期限要短得多，從授權到交易執行和費用實現。您在第二季度看到，這確實是為了實際目的而停止的。四月活動量大幅下降，但五月和六月開始回升。

So we do see that market as normalizing a little bit. And as we talked about yesterday, the leverage debt capital market was especially quiet. And we also stepped back a little bit in terms of risk appetite. So I think as we get through, well, July and then after the summer pause, our expectation is that debt capital markets will also recover. And so we're optimistic about how that can move from here.

因此我們確實看到市場正在逐漸正常化。正如我們昨天談到的，槓桿債務資本市場特別平靜。我們在風險偏好方面也稍微退後了一步。因此我認為，隨著我們度過 7 月以及夏季休整期之後，我們預計債務資本市場也將復甦。因此，我們對未來發展持樂觀態度。

We also noted that there were some sort of transactions ready to close that we'd initially thought would close and produce revenues in the second quarter which were moved to the second half and a couple of cases already closed in July. So that timing is also helpful in terms of revenue momentum and O&A going into Q3. I hope that helps. Although, as I say, I don't have the geographic pipeline in front of me.

我們也注意到，有一些交易準備結束，我們最初認為這些交易將在第二季結束並產生收入，但這些交易被推遲到了下半年，而且有幾起案件已於 7 月結束。因此，這個時機對於進入第三季的營收動能和 O&A 也是有幫助的。我希望這能有所幫助。儘管，正如我所說，我面前沒有地理管道。

Yes, it does. Thanks.

是的。謝謝。

So there's a couple of questions that Rob was asking about, which, I guess, was more around the NDFI lending. Well, I think we have to get back to you with some -- the sort of breakdown that you're looking by. Off the top of our head, I think our BDC exposure is de minimis, but we can clarify that.

所以 Rob 問了幾個問題，我猜，這些問題更多是關於 NDFI 貸款的問題。好吧，我想我們必須向您提供一些您正在尋找的細分資訊。我認為，我們的 BDC 風險敞口微乎其微，但我們可以澄清這一點。

I think we just need to, I guess, make sure that we're talking on the right terms when it comes to alternative asset management. So if you don't mind, we'll come back to offline on the response to that question.

我認為，我們只需要確保在談論另類資產管理時我們是在以正確的方式進行談判。因此，如果您不介意的話，我們將在線下回覆該問題。

And then on commercial real estate, as I said to Ben's question, I don't know that there's yet full visibility on pricing. I have to say. I think the -- what we see is a weakness in certain geographies. But it is often idiosyncratic to an individual project where there might be leasing activity or the lack of terminated leases and so on that impact the value of a specific building. And we've called out the weakness on the West Coast.

然後關於商業房地產，正如我回答本的問題時所說，我不知道定價是否完全透明。我不得不說。我認為——我們看到的是某些地區的弱點。但對於單一項目來說，情況往往是特殊的，可能會有租賃活動或缺乏終止租約等，影響特定建築物的價值。我們已經指出了西海岸的弱點。

Does the current market environment give you an opportunity to accelerate a work down? It's mixed, I'd say. But as I said, an answer to Ben's question, we're actually looking at alternatives to do that. But it is often idiosyncratic to individual investments, which makes it a sort of a granular activity.

當前的市場環境是否為您提供了加速工作的機會？我想說，這是混合的。但正如我回答本的問題時所說的那樣，我們實際上正在尋找替代方案。但它往往與個人投資有關，這使得它成為一種細粒度的活動。

Our hope remains that this -- an expectation is that as we get more visibility into the economic developments, especially the United States, interest rates and secondary market activity that the situation will ameliorate. We will be able to transact and, of course, with that the credit loss provisioning or the allowance can come down again.

我們仍然希望——隨著我們對經濟發展，特別是美國、利率和二級市場活動的了解越來越多，情況將會改善。我們將能夠進行交易，當然，信用損失準備金或撥備金可以再次下降。

(Operator Instructions) So it seems there are no further questions at this time. So I would like to turn the conference back over to Philip Teuchner for any closing remarks.

（操作員指示）看來目前沒有其他問題了。因此，我想將會議交還給 Philip Teuchner 做結束語。

Thank you, Mauritz. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye and have a nice day.

謝謝你，莫里茲。最後，感謝大家今天的參與。如果您有任何其他問題，您知道 IR 團隊在哪裡，我們期待很快再次與您交談。再見，祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議現已結束，您可以斷開連接了。感謝您選擇Chorus Call，感謝您參加本次會議。再見。