Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q3 2026 fixed income call. I'm Moritz, your Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in a listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

    各位女士、先生,歡迎參加 2026 年第三季固定收益電話會議。我是 Moritz,您本次 Chorus Call 的會議操作員。提醒各位,所有與會者將以僅聆聽模式參與,且本次會議正在錄音。(操作員指示) 本會議不得為出版或廣播目的而錄製。

  • At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Philip Teuchner, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在,我很榮幸將會議交給投資人關係部的 Philip Teuchner。先生,請開始。

  • Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

    Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon or good morning, and thank you, all, for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed income specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, Raja Akram, with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com.

    各位下午好或早安,感謝各位今天加入我們。在本次電話會議中,我們的集團財務長(Group Treasurer)Richard Stewart 將帶領我們討論一些固定收益相關的特定議題。在隨後的問答環節,我們也邀請到財務長(CFO)Raja Akram 一同出席,回答各位的提問。配合本次議題的簡報投影片可於我們網站 db.com 下載。

  • After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions. Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of our materials.

    簡報結束後,我們很樂意回答各位的問題。在開始之前,我想提醒各位,本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述,其發展未必如我們目前預期。因此,請留意我們資料末尾的警示性聲明。

  • With that, let me hand over to Richard.

    接下來,讓我把時間交給 Richard。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. We delivered record performance and strong momentum in the first nine months of 2026. We grew revenues to EUR25.5 billion, well on track to meet our full-year ambition of around EUR33 billion. We have now completed a large portion of this year's investments, and we continue to maintain cost discipline. As planned, we have largely self-funded incremental investments with efficiency gains.

    謝謝你,Philip,也歡迎各位。我們在 2026 年前九個月交出創紀錄的表現並展現強勁動能。我們將營收提升至 255 億歐元,進度良好,可望達成全年約 330 億歐元的目標。我們現已完成今年大部分投資,並持續維持成本紀律。如同規劃,我們主要透過效率提升所帶來的收益,自籌資金支持新增投資。

  • This enabled us to deliver a record profit before tax of EUR8.4 billion for the first nine months of the year, along with a record third quarter. Post-tax return on tangible equity was 11.5% and our cost income ratio was 61.4%. A few words on our progress on scaling our Global Hausbank.

    這使我們在今年前九個月實現 84 億歐元的稅前獲利新高,同時第三季也創下紀錄。稅後有形股東權益報酬率(RoTE)為 11.5%,成本收入比為 61.4%。接著簡要談談我們在擴大「全球主力銀行(Global Hausbank)」方面的進展。

  • We made tangible progress on all three levers of our strategy in the first nine months of the year. We continued to deliver focused growth. Revenues increased by 5% versus last year, in line with our planned trajectory through 2028. Our focused growth areas contributed nearly 80% of the increase and grew by 6%.

    今年前九個月,我們在策略的三大槓桿上都取得了具體進展。我們持續推動聚焦式成長。營收較去年增加 5%,符合我們至 2028 年的既定規劃軌跡。我們的聚焦成長領域貢獻了近 80% 的增量,且成長 6%。

  • Second, we maintained strict capital discipline. Our initiatives included further capital accretive actions on non-performing exposures and progress with our securitization programs. Third, we made further progress on our scalable operating model. We continued to simplify our processes and made targeted investments in upgrading our infrastructure. Across all three levers, we are driving strong performance across our businesses, investing in growth and efficiency, and reinforcing client connectivity.

    第二,我們維持嚴格的資本紀律。相關措施包括針對不良曝險進一步採取提升資本的行動,以及推進我們的證券化計畫。第三,我們在可擴展的營運模式上持續取得進展。我們持續簡化流程,並有針對性地投資以升級基礎設施。在這三大槓桿上,我們正推動各業務的強勁表現,投資於成長與效率,並強化與客戶的連結。

  • Turning to slide 3. All divisions delivered a RoTE of 12% or higher for the first nine months of the year, while each division increased profit before tax in every quarter of the year. Private Bank net flows reached EUR17 billion, a record for the Private Bank, with around two-thirds from wealth management.

    請看投影片第 3 頁。今年前九個月,各事業部的 RoTE 均達到 12% 或以上,且每個事業部在今年每一季的稅前獲利皆有所提升。私人銀行(Private Bank)淨流入達 170 億歐元,創私人銀行新高,其中約三分之二來自財富管理。

  • Year-to-date inflows have already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. Asset management grew AUMs to over EUR1.2 trillion, with record net flows of EUR31 billion in the third quarter. The Corporate Bank delivered record quarterly revenues with sustained growth in loans, deposits, and client activity across every segment. We delivered strong revenue growth in Germany, underlying the strength of our home market franchise.

    年初至今的資金流入已超過 2025 年全年水準。資產管理業務將資產管理規模(AUM)提升至超過 1.2 兆歐元,第三季淨流入 310 億歐元創下紀錄。企業銀行(Corporate Bank)在各細分市場的放款、存款與客戶活動持續成長,帶動單季營收創新高。我們在德國實現強勁的營收成長,凸顯我們本土市場特許經營的實力。

  • The Investment Bank delivered strong results. FICC revenues were close to the record prior year quarter, despite less favorable market conditions. And in IBCM, we increased our EMEA market share by 160 basis points year on year.

    投資銀行(Investment Bank)交出強勁成果。儘管市場環境較不有利,固定收益、外匯與商品(FICC)營收仍接近前一年同期的紀錄水準。而在投資銀行資本市場(IBCM)方面,我們在 EMEA 的市占率年增 160 個基點。

  • Our franchise business performance and balance sheet have remained resilient despite heightened fiscal uncertainty across Europe in an already challenging global economic backdrop. The path to our 2028 targets and objectives has become clearer as we make progress against our strategic priorities. This strengthens our view that an RoTE above 13% represents a floor.

    儘管歐洲財政不確定性升高,且全球經濟背景本已充滿挑戰,我們的特許經營業務表現與資產負債表仍維持韌性。隨著我們在策略優先事項上持續推進,通往 2028 年目標與目的的路徑已更加清晰。這也強化了我們的看法:RoTE 高於 13% 可視為底線。

  • Turning to treasury specific topics, starting with our net balance sheet on slide 4. We continue to operate with a strong and conservative balance sheet, underpinned by robust capital and liquidity buffers. Compared to the prior year period, we've demonstrated strong volume growth in both loans and deposits, up by EUR22 billion and EUR53 billion, respectively.

    接著進入財資(Treasury)相關議題,先從投影片第 4 頁的淨資產負債表談起。我們持續以強健且保守的資產負債表運作,並由穩健的資本與流動性緩衝所支撐。與去年同期相比,我們在放款與存款兩方面均展現強勁的量能成長,分別增加 220 億歐元與 530 億歐元。

  • This resulted in a loan to deposit ratio of 69%. Capital remained robust in the third quarter. Our CET1 capital ratio was 14% at the high end of our operating range. Our leverage ratio was 4.4%, reflecting higher leverage exposure at quarter end.

    因此,放款對存款比率為 69%。第三季資本仍維持穩健。我們的普通股權一級資本(CET1)比率為 14%,位於我們營運區間的高端。槓桿比率為 4.4%,反映季末槓桿曝險較高。

  • Let us turn to provision for credit losses on slide 5, for which we recorded EUR501 million in the quarter. We continue to take proactive capital accretive actions to further de-risk our CRE portfolio, which is reflected in our provisions for the quarter. In addition, provisions in the Corporate Bank were impacted by an idiosyncratic event in Asia. Underlying asset quality remains strong, with leading indicators showing a stable or improving picture across the majority of portfolios.

    接著看投影片第 5 頁的信用損失準備,本季我們認列 5.01 億歐元。我們持續採取主動的資本增厚行動,以進一步降低商用不動產(CRE)投資組合風險,並反映在本季的提存中。此外,企業銀行的提存亦受到亞洲一項特定事件的影響。整體而言,基礎資產品質仍然強勁,領先指標顯示多數投資組合呈現穩定或改善。

  • As shown in the appendix on page 25, CRE is the primary driver of the elevated group provision run rate. The run rate reflects the proactive de-risking measures and valuation updates on legacy defaulted positions. Our higher risk CRE portfolio has declined materially since 2022. In the US, we have seen a majority of stress. The book is down 42% since 2022 and about 20% year on year, reflecting repayments and our proactive de-risking measures.

    如附錄第 25 頁所示,商用不動產(CRE)是推升集團較高提存「運行率(run rate)」的主要因素。該運行率反映我們主動去風險措施,以及對既有違約部位的估值更新。自 2022 年以來,我們較高風險的 CRE 投資組合已大幅下降。在美國,我們看到壓力最為集中。該投資組合自 2022 年以來下降 42%,年減約 20%,反映還款以及我們主動去風險措施的成效。

  • There is no evidence of broader portfolio weakness with the Private Bank and Corporate Bank portfolios remaining stable and resilient. Our medium-term expectations remain unchanged. A gradual but steady decline in CRE provisions in 2027, and in 2028, a further improvement in the group provision run rate normalizing at around 30 basis points.

    沒有證據顯示更廣泛的投資組合出現弱化;私人銀行與企業銀行的投資組合仍維持穩定且具韌性。我們的中期預期維持不變。預期 2027 年 CRE 提存將逐步且穩定下降;而在 2028 年,集團提存運行率將進一步改善,並正常化至約 30 個基點。

  • Moving to quarterly capital developments on slide 6. We ended the quarter at 14%. Risk-weighted assets decreased by EUR3 billion, excluding FX effects of EUR1 billion. The quarter-on-quarter reduction was driven by the Investment Bank, which carefully contained market and credit risks in a volatile environment. The increase in the other category includes the impact of model simplification efforts.

    接著看投影片第 6 頁的季度資本變動。本季末我們的比率為 14%。風險加權資產(RWA)減少 30 億歐元(不含 10 億歐元的匯率影響)。季對季的下降主要由投資銀行帶動,其在波動環境中審慎控制市場與信用風險。其他類別的增加包含模型簡化工作的影響。

  • Net income, net of deductions for AT1 coupons, contributed 43 basis points, reflecting strong third-quarter earnings, while deductions for distributions of 26 basis points represent the 60% payout ratio. The 16 basis points reduction in other includes an immaterial impact from recent increases in government bond yields, reflecting improved portfolio positioning and risk management.

    淨利(扣除 AT1 息票後)貢獻了 43 個基點,反映第三季強勁獲利表現;而分配扣減 26 個基點則反映 60% 的派息率。其他項目減少 16 個基點,其中包含近期政府公債殖利率上升帶來的非重大影響,反映投資組合部位配置改善與風險管理成效。

  • Note that the majority of our government bond portfolio in the banking book is accounted for at amortized cost, and overall, we remain comfortable with our sovereign bond exposures. Looking toward year end, we expect our CET1 ratio to remain within our operating range, reflecting ongoing business activity and the annual update of operational risk RWA, including the impact of higher 2026 revenues.

    請注意,我們銀行簿中的政府公債投資組合多數以攤銷後成本入帳;整體而言,我們對主權債曝險仍感到安心。展望年底,我們預期 CET1 比率將維持在營運區間內,反映持續的業務活動以及作業風險 RWA 的年度更新(包括 2026 年收入較高的影響)。

  • As you have seen, our SREP requirement will be lower from next year, bringing our total capital ratio requirement down by 25 basis points. Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements, as shown on slide 7. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 283 basis points, or EUR10 billion, reflecting the quarter-on-quarter increase in the CET1 capital ratio. The buffer to total capital requirement is 321 basis points.

    如各位所見,我們的 SREP 要求自明年起將降低,使我們的總資本比率要求下調 25 個基點。如投影片 7 所示,我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求。CET1 MDA 緩衝目前為 283 個基點(約 100 億歐元),反映本季 CET1 資本比率較上季上升。相對於總資本要求的緩衝為 321 個基點。

  • On the leverage side, we ended the quarter at 4.4%, which is 9 basis points lower than in the prior quarter, still with a very comfortable MDA buffer equivalent to EUR12 billion of Tier 1 capital. We continue to operate with a significant loss absorbing capacity well above all requirements, as shown on slide 8. The TLAC surplus of EUR19 billion, our most binding constraint, decreased by approximately EUR3 billion compared to the prior quarter, predominantly from higher leverage exposure.

    在槓桿方面,我們本季末為 4.4%,較前一季低 9 個基點,但仍有非常充裕的 MDA 緩衝,相當於 120 億歐元的一級資本。如投影片 8 所示,我們持續維持顯著的損失吸收能力,且遠高於所有要求。作為我們最具約束力的限制,TLAC 超額為 190 億歐元,較前一季減少約 30 億歐元,主要因槓桿曝險上升所致。

  • This surplus provides us with meaningful flexibility to manage eligible liability issuances and, if market conditions or economics warrant, to pause new issuance for at least one year. Moving now to the development of the loan book on slide 9. During the third quarter, loans grew by EUR6 billion, or 1%, to EUR497 billion. The underlying quality of the loan book remains strong, reflecting our conservative underwriting standards across all businesses.

    此一超額為我們管理合格負債發行提供了實質彈性;若市場條件或經濟性需要,亦可至少暫停新發行一年。接著看投影片 9 的放款組合變化。第三季放款增加 60 億歐元(或 1%),至 4,970 億歐元。放款組合的基本品質仍然強勁,反映我們在各項業務中採取保守的承作標準。

  • Looking at the Private Bank, we are pleased with the strong wealth management growth, which is only partially offset by further strategic reductions in non-SVA accretive retail portfolios. In the Corporate Bank, we saw growth in flow and structured trade finance products, while we also continue to optimize the underlying lending portfolio.

    就私人銀行而言,我們對強勁的財富管理成長感到滿意,雖然部分被對非 SVA 增益之零售投資組合進一步策略性縮減所抵銷。在企業銀行方面,我們看到流量型與結構性貿易融資產品成長,同時也持續優化基礎放款投資組合。

  • In line with our strategy, our loan portfolio in FICC financing has also shown further encouraging growth during the third quarter. For the remainder of the year, we see further growth opportunities across all businesses, whilst our focus remains on value accretion and capital discipline.

    依循我們的策略,FICC 融資中的放款投資組合在第三季亦呈現進一步令人鼓舞的成長。在今年剩餘期間,我們在各項業務中仍看到進一步成長機會,同時將持續聚焦於價值增益與資本紀律。

  • On slide 10, we provide details on the quarterly deposit development. Our deposit book grew by EUR18 billion, or 3%, during the third quarter to EUR716 billion. Growth has been largely driven by the Corporate Bank, where we saw substantial inflows within corporate cash management. While we expect some normalization until year end, these inflows demonstrate the underlying strength of the franchise.

    在投影片 10,我們提供季度存款變化的細節。第三季我們的存款組合增加 180 億歐元(或 3%),至 7,160 億歐元。成長主要由企業銀行帶動,我們在企業現金管理中看到大量資金流入。雖然我們預期至年底前會有部分正常化,但這些流入顯示特許經營的基本實力。

  • Our Private Bank portfolio also grew during the quarter, driven by continued inflows from our campaigns in Germany and slight growth in wealth management. Looking ahead, we remain focused on delivering our strategy and selectively growing the portfolio while maintaining a high quality and diversified funding mix.

    我們的私人銀行投資組合在本季亦成長,主要由德國行銷活動帶來的持續資金流入,以及財富管理的小幅成長所驅動。展望未來,我們仍專注於落實策略,並在維持高品質且多元化的資金來源組合的同時,有選擇性地擴大投資組合。

  • Moving to net interest income on slide 11. NII was solid at EUR3.7 billion across the key banking book segments and other funding. Deposit related NII continued to benefit from underlying volume growth and the contribution from our hedge portfolio, while loan NII benefited from strong volume growth.

    接著看投影片 11 的淨利息收入。在主要銀行簿業務分部及其他資金來源方面,NII 表現穩健,為 37 億歐元。與存款相關的 NII 持續受惠於基本量的成長以及避險投資組合的貢獻;放款 NII 則受惠於強勁的量成長。

  • Looking at divisions in the Private Bank, margins continued to progress steadily, particularly in deposits. In the Corporate Bank, net interest income also went up sequentially, supported by higher business volumes. In FICC financing, the results reflect continued strong demand for lending.

    就私人銀行各分部而言,利差持續穩步改善,尤其是在存款方面。在企業銀行方面,淨利息收入亦較前期上升,並受較高業務量支持。在 FICC 融資方面,結果反映放款需求持續強勁。

  • On slide 12, which is based on market implied forward rates as at the end of September, you can see the multi-year NII tailwind from rolling our hedge portfolio. Our hedge strategy stabilizes deposit NII through the rate cycle while enabling gradual repricing and growth in hedge income over time. The total volume of hedges has been stable compared to the prior quarter, with around EUR210 billion invested longer term.

    在投影片 12(以 9 月底的市場隱含遠期利率為基礎),各位可看到透過滾動我們的避險投資組合所帶來的多年期 NII 順風。我們的避險策略可在利率循環中穩定存款 NII,同時使避險收益得以隨時間逐步重訂價格並成長。避險總量與前一季相比保持穩定,約有 2,100 億歐元為較長期投資。

  • Over the course of the year, we have also used attractive market opportunities to add forward starting hedges, increasing the proportion of hedge income already locked in to around 90% for 2027 and around 80% for 2028. The yield of hedges maturing in 2026 is around 40 basis points on average, compared with the 10-year euro swap rate of around 3.2%.

    在今年期間,我們亦把握具吸引力的市場機會新增遠期起始避險,提高已鎖定的避險收益占比:2027 年約 90%,2028 年約 80%。2026 年到期避險的收益率平均約 40 個基點,相較之下,10 年期歐元交換利率約為 3.2%。

  • Looking beyond the numbers shown on the slide, we expect the yield differential in 2029 to increase compared to 2028, reflecting the prevailing interest rate environment in the past. The sensitivity of our reported NII for 2027 and 2028 to rate moves is further reduced as a result, and you can see that in the usual appendix slide.

    除投影片所示數字之外,我們預期 2029 年的收益率差將較 2028 年擴大,反映過去的利率環境。因此,我們已揭露的 2027 年與 2028 年 NII 對利率變動的敏感度進一步降低;各位可在慣例的附錄投影片中看到。

  • Turning to slide 13, our liquidity and funding position remains strong in the third quarter. We managed our liquidity coverage ratio to 143%, reflecting our robust liquidity position, which remains comfortably above the regulatory requirement. We ended the quarter with EUR242 billion of high-quality liquid assets, an increase of EUR5 billion. Around 93% of the buffer was held in cash and Level 1 securities.

    接著看投影片 13,第三季我們的流動性與資金調度部位仍然強勁。我們將流動性覆蓋率管理在 143%,反映穩健的流動性部位,且仍明顯高於監管要求。本季末我們持有 2,420 億歐元的高品質流動性資產,增加 50 億歐元。其中約 93% 的緩衝以現金與第 1 級證券持有。

  • Our net stable funding ratio increased to 120%, with available stable funding rising to EUR678 billion. This reflects the strong funding contribution from deposits and issuances during the quarter, which was partially offset by higher required stable funding from business growth. Taken together, these metrics demonstrate the strength and diversification of our liquidity and funding profile.

    我們的淨穩定資金比率上升至 120%,可用穩定資金增加至 6,780 億歐元。這反映本季存款與發行帶來的強勁資金貢獻,但部分被業務成長導致所需穩定資金增加所抵銷。綜合而言,這些指標展現我們流動性與資金結構的強度與多元化。

  • Let us now turn to our issuance activity on slide 14. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, credit market sentiment remained resilient for most of the quarter, before spreads widened amid macro headwinds from late September onwards. Taking advantage of the predominantly supportive market conditions, we issued EUR6 billion since the last fixed income call, taking our year-to-date total to EUR15 billion. This effectively completes our issuance plan of EUR10 billion to EUR15 billion.

    現在讓我們看投影片 14 的發行活動。儘管地緣政治不確定性持續,信貸市場情緒在本季大部分時間仍具韌性;但自 9 月下旬起,在總體逆風下利差開始擴大。把握整體偏支持的市場條件,我們自上次固定收益電話會議以來已發行 60 億歐元,使年初至今總額達 150 億歐元。這實質上完成了我們 100 億至 150 億歐元的發行計畫。

  • Issuance highlights in this quarter included a series of successful transactions across AT1, Tier 2, senior non-preferred, and senior preferred in euros, US dollars, pound sterling, and Swiss francs. Particularly noteworthy was a EUR1.25 billion AT1 transaction, which achieved the tightest ever reset spread for Deutsche Bank for this asset class.

    本季發行亮點包括在 AT1、第二級資本(Tier 2)、高級非優先(senior non-preferred)及高級優先(senior preferred)等多個品種上完成一系列成功交易,幣別涵蓋歐元、美元、英鎊與瑞士法郎。其中尤為值得一提的是一筆 12.5 億歐元的 AT1 交易,創下德意志銀行在此資產類別中史上最緊的重設利差。

  • For the remainder of the year, we will focus on opportunities to pre-fund our 2027 requirements, which we expect to be a little higher compared to this year. As usual, we will present further details on next year's funding plan in the Q4 fixed income call.

    在今年剩餘時間,我們將聚焦於提前為 2027 年的資金需求進行預先融資的機會;我們預期相較於今年,2027 年的需求會略高一些。如同以往,我們將在第四季固定收益電話會議中,提供更多關於明年融資計畫的細節。

  • To conclude on slide 15, we are on track to deliver revenues above EUR33 billion, assuming markets remain constructive. We continue to expect total expenses of around EUR21.3 billion, reflecting continued investment discipline, operating efficiencies, and any one-off items.

    最後總結第 15 頁投影片:在市場環境維持有利的前提下,我們正按計畫推進,預期營收可達到 330 億歐元以上。我們仍預期總費用約為 213 億歐元,反映持續的投資紀律、營運效率提升,以及任何一次性項目。

  • Excluding the impact of proactive de-risking actions and the idiosyncratic event, we expect provision for credit loss to be broadly in line with our earlier guidance, slightly lower in 2026 compared to the prior year. We will provide an update on progress of our strategy when we report our full-year 2026 results. And as we discussed in the previous slide, we have effectively completed our funding requirements for the year.

    若排除主動去風險措施及該特定事件的影響,我們預期信用損失準備金將大致符合先前指引,且 2026 年相較前一年略低。在我們公布 2026 年全年業績時,將更新策略推進進度。此外,如同前一頁所述,我們已實質完成今年的融資需求。

  • With that, let us turn to your questions.

    接下來,我們來回答各位的提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Lee Street, Citigroup.

    (接線員指示)Lee Street,花旗集團。

  • Lee Street - Analyst

    Lee Street - Analyst

  • Hello. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the questions. I have two questions, please. Firstly, are you able to give any detail on what drove the reduction in your SREP ratio that you announced earlier this week? Quite a significant move.

    你好。下午好。謝謝讓我提問。我有兩個問題。第一,能否說明一下本週稍早你們宣布的 SREP 比率下調,主要是由什麼因素驅動?幅度相當大。

  • And secondly, a bigger picture level, strategically, obviously you have done really well and your performance has improved a lot year on year for many, many years. But I guess at the same time, I look at most other banks and recognize that G-SIB, we have seen their performance improve as much, if not more. So do you care or does that put any pressure on you to look at bolt-on opportunities or inorganic growth?

    第二個是更宏觀、策略層面的問題:顯然你們做得很好,且多年來你們的表現逐年大幅改善。但同時,我看其他多數銀行也注意到,作為 G-SIB,我們看到他們的表現改善幅度不亞於你們,甚至更好。因此你們是否在意?或這是否會對你們造成壓力,去尋找補強型(bolt-on)的機會或非有機成長?

  • That's basically my question. Thank you.

    大概就是這個問題。謝謝。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yeah. Richard, I can take the first one. Apologies, we are having a little bit of hard time hearing fully, so hopefully Richard got the second question. I think it was about the G-SIB add-on. I think your first question was about what drove the SREP reduction. Is that correct?

    好的。Richard,我可以先回答第一個。抱歉,我們這邊聽得不是很清楚,希望 Richard 有聽到第二個問題。我想第二個是關於 G-SIB 的附加要求。我理解你的第一個問題是:是什麼驅動了 SREP 的下調。對嗎?

  • Lee Street - Analyst

    Lee Street - Analyst

  • That's correct. Yes, that's correct.

    沒錯。是的,沒錯。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Okay. Yeah. So look, I think this follows actually a smaller SREP reduction in 2025. I think we went down by 5 basis points, which I would say was probably more of a model technical tweak than anything fundamental. But I think, as you know, we've been very clear about changing and shifting our business model towards more sustainable revenue stream businesses. We have built, obviously, a capital that is higher. And sustainably, we have operated within a higher operating range.

    好的。是這樣,我認為這其實延續了 2025 年較小幅度的 SREP 下調。我記得我們下調了 5 個基點;我會說那更像是模型上的技術性微調,而非任何根本性的變化。但如你所知,我們一直很清楚地表明,我們正在改變並調整商業模式,轉向更具可持續性收入來源的業務。我們也建立了更高的資本水準。並且在更高的營運區間內持續運作。

  • Profitability has improved, especially from our non-capital intensive businesses. We have obviously taken active de-risking actions, in terms of our commercial real estate portfolio and gotten some of the other, I would say, overhangs out of the way. So obviously, we get some level of visibility through qualitative conversations. We obviously don't have a view into their actual model.

    獲利能力已改善,尤其來自我們那些不屬於資本密集型的業務。我們也確實採取了積極的去風險行動,例如針對商用不動產投資組合,並把其他一些我會稱之為「懸而未決的包袱」處理掉。因此,我們透過定性層面的溝通,確實能獲得一定程度的能見度。當然,我們無法看到監管方實際使用的模型。

  • But I would say the feedback is reflective of actually the pivot that the bank has made towards a more stable, less risky, structurally, and sustainably profitable bank. And I know we are happy about this one, but honestly, I would hope and expect that as we continue this pivot, that we have more SREP reductions to come.

    但我會說,這些回饋反映了本行的轉型:朝向更穩定、風險更低、在結構上更健全且可持續獲利的銀行。我知道我們對這次結果感到高興,但坦白說,我也希望並預期,隨著我們持續推進這項轉型,未來還會有更多 SREP 下調。

  • Richard, do you want to take the G-SIB one?

    Richard,你要回答關於 G-SIB 的那題嗎?

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Yeah, I mean, I'll start, but I think you might want to hop in at some point because I think it's a wider strategy question anyway. Hi Lee. How are you?

    好,我先開始,不過我想你可能也會在某個時點補充,因為這本來就是更廣泛的策略問題。嗨,Lee,你好嗎?

  • Lee Street - Analyst

    Lee Street - Analyst

  • Yeah. Good, thanks.

    很好,謝謝。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Thanks for joining. How I think about it is, we've been rebuilding the bank since 2019, building these foundations, and now we're kind of moving more to offense from defense. So I think Raj, just for your benefit, Lee's question was more, we have sequential PBT growth. We continue to do well, but peers are also doing well, arguably a little bit better, and therefore, how we see ourselves evolving from there.

    謝謝你加入。我的看法是:自 2019 年以來,我們一直在重建這家銀行、打好基礎,而現在我們正從防守轉向更偏進攻。所以 Raj,為了讓你更清楚,Lee 的問題更偏向:我們的稅前利潤(PBT)呈現逐季成長,我們持續表現不錯,但同業也表現很好,甚至可以說略好一些,因此我們接下來如何看待自身的演進。

  • So I think it's kind of rebuilding the bank and moving on from there. I think the next move is really around us controlling our own destiny, because there's a lot of things that we can do to generate excess profits. And we're very comfortable with that kind of overall strategic trajectory. And so I don't largely want to add anything to that, but that's how I think about the bank.

    所以我認為這就是重建銀行並在此基礎上往前走。下一步的重點,確實在於我們掌握自己的命運,因為我們有很多事情可以做來創造超額利潤。我們對這樣的整體策略軌跡非常有信心。因此我大致不想再額外補充太多,但這就是我對本行的看法。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yeah, and I appreciate it. Thanks. I understand a little bit better now. Yes. Look, I think as we laid out at the investor day, our primary path for the time being is certainly an organic one, because we feel like we have work to do ourselves on capital and also on business model, also on costs. But that said, I think we were also clear that it was one of the things that was on my list about uses of capital.

    好的,我理解,也很感謝。謝謝。我現在更明白一些了。是的。你看,正如我們在投資人日所說,至少在目前階段,我們的主要路徑確實是有機成長,因為我們覺得自己在資本、商業模式以及成本方面都還有工作要做。但同時,我們也很清楚地說過,這是我在資本運用清單上的其中一項。

  • We certainly think that in certain businesses, scale could be helpful, assuming that it's the right fit for us. And I would say, down the line, if there was an opportunity to look at something that was meaningful in the asset or wealth management space, it would certainly be something that would be interesting to us. But that's just not on top of mind right now. Absolutely, the positioning for us is important. The relative positioning for us is important.

    我們確實認為,在某些業務中,只要與我們的策略契合,規模化可能會有幫助。我會說,從長遠來看,如果有機會評估在資產管理或財富管理領域具意義的標的,這當然會是我們感興趣的方向。但目前這並不是我們最優先關注的事項。對我們而言,定位非常重要。相對定位對我們也很重要。

  • We are trying to close the return gap first on our own. If I was to look down the line, then obviously it's not just important for us to be closing the return gap, but at some point, our ambition is to actually be in the front. For that, obviously down the line, something like an inorganic move would be important. But right now, honestly, there's enough work for us to keep us busy with what we have to do in-house.

    我們正嘗試先靠自己縮小報酬差距。如果往後看,顯然不只是縮小報酬差距對我們重要;在某個時間點,我們的企圖心是要走到領先位置。為了達成這點,從長遠來看,像是非有機的動作就會很重要。但就目前而言,坦白說,我們內部要做的事情已經夠多,足以讓我們忙得不可開交。

  • Lee Street - Analyst

    Lee Street - Analyst

  • Okay. That's very clear. Thank you.

    好的。這非常清楚。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sushil Deo, Bernstein Autonomous.

    Sushil Deo,Bernstein Autonomous。

  • Sushil Deo - Analyst

    Sushil Deo - Analyst

  • Hi. Thanks for all the details. I have a couple of questions. The first one being your P2R has reduced by 25 basis points. So can you provide any details as to if there are any specific risks which have been mitigated, and will this change or reduce your CET1 in the longer term? And secondly, you have two AT1 calls coming late next year, so how early will you consider refinancing them? Is an LME alongside a new deal on the table for the first of the calls? Thank you.

    嗨。感謝提供所有細節。我有幾個問題。第一個是你們的 P2R 下調了 25 個基點。所以你能否提供一些細節,說明是否有任何特定風險已被緩解,以及從長期來看這是否會改變或降低你們的 CET1?其次,你們在明年年底有兩筆 AT1 的赎回選擇權(call),那你們會多早開始考慮為它們再融資?針對第一個 call,是否會在新發行交易的同時考慮進行 LME?謝謝。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Management Board

  • Yeah. I'll let Richard take the second one. I think I just, in some ways, answered the P2R question as a response to the first question. I don't think it's just a matter of risk mitigation. I think it's essentially a matter of us basically making our business model more predictable, more structurally profitable, and along with the de-risking that we've been doing on our commercial real estate portfolio, just one example.

    是的。我讓 Richard 回答第二個問題。我想我在某種程度上已經在回應第一個問題時回答了 P2R 的問題。我不認為這只是風險緩解的問題。我認為這本質上是我們讓商業模式更可預測、更具結構性獲利能力;再加上我們一直在對商業不動產投資組合去風險化,這只是其中一個例子。

  • Obviously, if you look at our litigation risks and our contingent liabilities that we disclosed, they have come down year over year. But I would say it's a totality of better governance, better risk management, better business model, and as I said, the work there is not done. It's actually continuing. So I hope that we are going to be seeing more and more of these reductions as the years go by.

    顯然,如果你看我們披露的訴訟風險與或有負債,它們已經逐年下降。但我會說,這是更佳治理、更佳風險管理、更佳商業模式的整體結果;而且如我所說,這方面的工作尚未完成。實際上仍在持續進行。所以我希望隨著時間推移,我們會看到越來越多這類下調。

  • I would say it's all about profitability, and obviously, overall risk mitigation. If you can see, ours was the largest P2R reduction year over year amongst all of our peers. We may have also had a slightly higher starting point, but it's still very fulfilling to see that we got a 25 basis point reduction in just one go. That' s on the back of 5 basis points from last year.

    我會說這一切都與獲利能力有關,當然也與整體風險緩解有關。如果你看得到,我們在所有同業之中,P2R 的年對年下調幅度是最大的。我們的起點可能也稍微高一些,但能在一次就下調 25 個基點,仍然令人非常欣慰。這是在去年下調 5 個基點的基礎上達成的。

  • So Richard, I don't know if you want to talk about AT1s.

    所以 Richard,我不知道你是否想談談 AT1。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Yeah, sure. Thanks for the question. Yes, you're right, we have a couple of calls, AT1 in Q4 of next year, so the actual assessment around the economics we will assess close to the date. As I said in my earlier remarks, we're still working through the issuance plan for next year. Typically, there is always some AT1 or Tier 2 issuance, so whether we call or replace, it's still to be decided depending on our balance sheet needs at the time.

    好的,當然。謝謝你的問題。是的,你說得對,我們在明年第四季有幾個 AT1 的 call,因此我們會在接近日期時評估其經濟性。如我先前所說,我們仍在制定明年的發行計畫。通常都會有一些 AT1 或第二級資本(Tier 2)發行;因此是否行使赎回或以新券替換,仍需視當時資產負債表需求而定。

  • Sushil Deo - Analyst

    Sushil Deo - Analyst

  • Makes sense. Thank you. If I can fit in one more, please, on the MREL SNP supply. Is it expected to be lower next year as a result of requirement reduction last quarter? Thank you.

    明白。謝謝。如果我可以再問一個,關於 MREL 的 SNP 供給。由於上季要求下調,明年的供給是否預期會更低?謝謝。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Yeah. Same sort of a response in general. Still working through that issuance plan. Like you say, I think, yeah, in previous years, we typically issue between EUR15 billion and EUR20 billion. This year is a little bit less than that. I would say we have not finalized that plan, but I would imagine it would be very comparable to previous years. Within that, there will be an SNP component as there has been in the last few years. So that will be the guidance I can give at this stage.

    是的。整體而言回覆類似。我們仍在制定該發行計畫。如你所說,過去幾年我們通常發行約 150 億至 200 億歐元。今年會比那個水準略少一些。我會說我們尚未最終敲定該計畫,但我想它會與過去幾年非常相近。其中會包含一部分 SNP,正如過去幾年一樣。所以這就是我在此階段能提供的指引。

  • Sushil Deo - Analyst

    Sushil Deo - Analyst

  • Got it. Thank you so much.

    了解。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • [Ravi Pagria, Yunto].

    [Ravi Pagria,Yunto]。

  • Unidentified Partcipant

    Unidentified Partcipant

  • Hi there. Thank you very much. One quick question on deposits. Very strong growth this quarter, I think led by Corporate Bank. Maybe you could just share the character or the operational, the stability of those deposits. And I think Richard mentioned he expects that to normalize in the year end. Do you mean that you expect deposits to shrink from here, from this strong starting point? Thank you.

    你好。非常感謝。關於存款有一個簡短問題。本季成長非常強勁,我想主要由企業銀行帶動。你們是否可以分享一下這些存款的性質或營運面特徵,以及其穩定性?我想 Richard 提到他預期年底會回歸正常。你的意思是,你預期存款會從目前這個強勁起點開始縮減嗎?謝謝。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • So in terms of Q3 in the Corporate Bank, so the growth is really coming more from sight deposits, which is coming in line with our wider strategy. And I would say a decent chunk of that is also coming out of our German deposit base. So two-thirds to three-quarters kind of -- of the increase in the quarter is coming from there. One thing, I guess what we're trying to say, there were some quarter end temporary balances that came into the Corporate Bank.

    就企業銀行第三季而言,成長主要來自活期存款,這與我們更廣泛的策略一致。而且我會說,其中相當一部分也來自我們的德國存款基礎。所以本季增量大約有三分之二到四分之三來自那裡。我想我們要表達的一點是,季末有一些暫時性的餘額流入企業銀行。

  • We're just saying that those are unlikely to stay with the company, and we expect a more normalized level in Q4. But the overall trajectory remains one of growth across all of our product ranges and segments globally. But in particular in Q3, it was coming from Germany.

    我們只是說,這些餘額不太可能長期留在本行,我們預期第四季會回到較正常的水準。但整體趨勢仍是在全球各產品線與各業務分部持續成長。不過特別是在第三季,主要是由德國帶動。

  • Unidentified Partcipant

    Unidentified Partcipant

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Philipp Teuchner for any closing remarks.

    各位女士、先生,這是最後一個問題。我現在想把電話會議交回給 Philipp Teuchner,請他做結語。

  • Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

    Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Moritz, and just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye, and have a nice day.

    謝謝你,Moritz。最後,感謝各位今天加入我們。如果你們還有任何問題,知道投資人關係(IR)團隊在哪裡可以聯繫到,我們也期待很快再次與各位交流。再見,祝各位有美好的一天。