Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q2 2026 fixed income call. I am Matilda, the Chorus Call operator. I would like to remind you that all participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

    各位女士、先生,歡迎參加 2026 年第二季固定收益電話會議。我是 Chorus Call 的接線員 Matilda。提醒各位,所有與會者將以僅收聽模式參與,本次會議正在錄音。(接線員指示)

  • The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it’s my pleasure to hand over to Philip Teuchner, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    本次會議不得錄音用於出版或廣播。現在,我很高興將會議交給投資人關係部的 Philip Teuchner。請開始。

  • Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

    Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

  • Good afternoon or good morning, thank you all for joining us today. On the call, our Group Treasurer, Richard Stewart, will take us through some fixed-income specific topics. For the subsequent Q&A session, we also have our CFO, Raja Akram, with us to answer your questions. The slides that accompany the topics are available for download from our website at db.com. After the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

    各位下午好或早安,感謝大家今天加入我們。在本次電話會議中,我們的集團財務主管(Group Treasurer)Richard Stewart 將帶領我們討論一些固定收益相關的特定主題。在隨後的問答環節,我們的財務長(CFO)Raja Akram 也將與會回答各位的問題。配合本次主題的簡報投影片可於我們的網站 db.com 下載。簡報結束後,我們很樂意回答各位的提問。

  • Before we get started, I just want to remind you that the presentation may contain forward-looking statements which may not develop as we currently expect. Therefore, please take note of the precautionary warning at the end of the materials.

    在開始之前,我想提醒各位,本簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述,其發展未必如我們目前所預期。因此,請留意資料末尾的警示性聲明。

  • With that, let me hand over to Richard.

    接下來,讓我把時間交給 Richard。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Thank you, Philip, and welcome from me. We are pleased with the performance we delivered and the momentum we achieved in the first half of 2026. We continue to invest in our global house bank, which paves the way for further growth, efficiency gains, and value creation. We grew revenues to EUR17.2 billion, well on track to reach our full-year ambition of around EUR33 billion. This momentum enabled us to deliver a post-tax profit of EUR4.1 billion, our highest ever for a half year.

    謝謝你,Philip,也歡迎各位。我們對 2026 年上半年所交出的表現與所取得的動能感到滿意。我們持續投資於我們的全球主辦銀行(global house bank),為進一步成長、效率提升與價值創造鋪路。我們將營收提升至 172 億歐元,正穩步朝全年約 330 億歐元的目標邁進。這股動能使我們實現稅後獲利 41 億歐元,創下半年度歷史新高。

  • We made further progress on our key ratios. Post-tax ROC increased to 11.9%, while our cost income ratio improved to 60.9%, despite the impact of SVA accretive strategic actions we took in the second quarter. This momentum positions us well to deliver our 2026 objectives and reinforces our confidence in achieving our 2028 targets.

    我們在關鍵比率方面也取得進一步進展。稅後 ROC 提升至 11.9%,而成本收入比改善至 60.9%,儘管第二季我們採取的具 SVA 增益的策略性行動帶來影響。這股動能使我們有利於達成 2026 年目標,並強化我們對實現 2028 年目標的信心。

  • We delivered strong performance across all our divisions, as you can see on slide 3. All divisions delivered returns on tangible equity of 12% or higher. The prior bank’s transformation continues. We made progress on our target ratios despite absorbing costs relating to continued investments and the exit of its India franchise, grew client assets by more than EUR55 billion in the first half year. The division has now completed all the branch closures foreseen for 2026 and continue to strengthen wealth management coverage.

    如投影片第 3 頁所示,我們在所有事業部門均交出強勁表現。所有事業部門的有形股東權益報酬率(return on tangible equity)皆達 12% 或以上。前銀行(prior bank)的轉型仍在持續。儘管吸收了持續投資及退出其印度特許經營(India franchise)相關成本,我們仍在目標比率上取得進展,並在上半年將客戶資產增加逾 550 億歐元。該部門現已完成 2026 年預計的所有分行關閉,並持續強化財富管理覆蓋。

  • Asset Management grew assets under management by EUR97 billion in the second quarter alone, which includes record net client flows of EUR25 billion. The Corporate Bank continued to grow business volumes in both loans and deposits, reflecting the strength of our corporate client franchise.

    資產管理部門僅在第二季就將管理資產(assets under management)增加 970 億歐元,其中包含創紀錄的 250 億歐元客戶淨流入。企業銀行部門在貸款與存款兩方面的業務量持續成長,反映我們企業客戶特許經營的實力。

  • The Investment Bank supported clients through heightened market volatility, reinforcing our position as a trusted partner and gateway for investing in Europe, whilst also growing EMEA market share in investment banking and capital markets.

    投資銀行部門在市場波動加劇之際支持客戶,鞏固我們作為值得信賴的合作夥伴以及投資歐洲的入口地位,同時也提升了我們在投資銀行與資本市場的 EMEA 市占率。

  • At our Investor Deep Dive in November, we made clear that we view an ROT of greater than 13% as a floor, dependent on the successful execution of our strategy. We also identified several trends that could provide further upside over time.

    在 11 月的投資人深度說明會(Investor Deep Dive)上,我們明確表示,只要策略成功執行,我們將 ROT 高於 13% 視為底線。我們也指出若干趨勢,隨時間推進可能帶來進一步上行空間。

  • Let me briefly update you on how those trends are developing on slide 4. First, German structural reforms, including health and pension reforms, are taking shape. The government’s 34-point plan should boost economic activity in the years ahead. Fiscal expansion is slowly but steadily gaining momentum. Investment spending in the infrastructure and defense sectors has started. Our Corporate Bank and Investment Bank are ideally placed to capture opportunities.

    讓我在投影片第 4 頁簡要更新這些趨勢的發展情況。首先,德國的結構性改革,包括醫療與退休金改革,正在成形。政府的 34 點計畫應可在未來幾年提振經濟活動。財政擴張正緩慢但穩健地累積動能。基礎建設與國防領域的投資支出已經啟動。我們的企業銀行與投資銀行具備理想條件把握相關機會。

  • We are seeing encouraging steps in private pension reforms and are very well placed to support existing and new clients with investment solutions and help them participate in opportunities as the market develops.

    我們看到私人退休金改革出現令人鼓舞的進展,而我們也處於非常有利的位置,可透過投資解決方案支持既有與新客戶,並協助他們在市場發展過程中參與相關機會。

  • The second trend is AI, which is evolving even faster than we expected, and the potential benefits for us are becoming clearer. This gives us potential both for incremental operating efficiencies and revenue growth in the future. The third trend is Savings and Investment Union. Across Europe, momentum is building, especially as health and pension reforms are top of the agenda in Germany.

    第二個趨勢是 AI,其演進速度甚至快於我們預期,而對我們而言的潛在效益也愈發清晰。這使我們未來在營運效率的增量提升與營收成長方面都具備潛力。第三個趨勢是「儲蓄與投資聯盟」(Savings and Investment Union)。在全歐洲,動能正在累積,尤其是在德國,醫療與退休金改革已成為最優先議題。

  • The fourth trend we discussed in November is a more level regulatory playing field. We are encouraged to see an increasing policy focus on competitiveness, simplification, and growth in Europe. Over time, we expect this to be supportive on several dimensions.

    我們在 11 月討論的第四個趨勢,是更為公平的監管競爭環境。我們樂見歐洲政策愈來愈聚焦於競爭力、簡化與成長。隨時間推進,我們預期這將在多個面向帶來支持。

  • The European Commission is taking a number of initiatives, including the recent proposal with a broader legislative package expected in early 2027. We believe that among European bank regulators, there is both increasing flexibility and political will to address some of the unintended consequences of CRR3 whilst not compromising on resilience.

    歐盟執委會正推動多項倡議,包括近期的提案,並預期在 2027 年初提出更廣泛的立法套案。我們認為,在歐洲銀行監管機構之間,為在不犧牲韌性的前提下處理 CRR3 的部分非預期後果,正出現更高的彈性與政治意願。

  • Temporary relief on FRTB as soon as January 2027 and permanent relief via legislative package later on would also maintain the competitiveness of European banks in trading and capital markets. In other words, across all four areas, the trends are positive. Of course, the speed and exact shape of change are hard to predict, but the overall direction is encouraging.

    最快於 2027 年 1 月對 FRTB 提供暫時性緩解,以及稍後透過立法套案提供永久性緩解,也將有助於維持歐洲銀行在交易與資本市場的競爭力。換言之,在這四個領域中,趨勢皆偏正面。當然,變化的速度與具體樣貌難以預測,但整體方向令人鼓舞。

  • Turning to treasury specific topics, starting with our net balance sheet on slide 5. We continue to operate with a strong and conservative balance sheet, underpinned by robust capital and liquidity buffers that comfortably exceed regulatory requirements and support the group across cycles.

    接下來談財資(treasury)相關主題,先從投影片第 5 頁的淨資產負債表開始。我們持續以強健且保守的資產負債表運作,並以穩健的資本與流動性緩衝作為支撐,這些緩衝充足高於監管要求,並可在不同景氣循環中支持集團。

  • Compared to the prior year period, we have demonstrated volume growth in both loans and deposits, which underpins the business momentum as well as our franchise strength. Capital remains robust in the second quarter. Our CET1 ratio was within our operating range between 13.5% and 14%. Our leverage ratio stood at 4.5% compared to 4.7% a year ago.

    與去年同期相比,我們在貸款與存款兩方面均展現出量的成長,支撐業務動能以及我們特許經營的實力。第二季資本仍然穩健。我們的 CET1 比率位於 13.5% 至 14% 的營運區間內。我們的槓桿比率為 4.5%,去年同期為 4.7%。

  • Let me also spend a moment on our credit ratings, on which you can find further details in the appendix on slide 18. We were pleased to see further constructive developments during the quarter. Fitch revised Deutsche Bank’s outlook to positive at the end of April, following earlier positive outlook revisions from S&P and Moody’s.

    我也花一點時間談談我們的信用評等;更多細節可見附錄投影片第 18 頁。我們很高興看到本季出現更多正向發展。Fitch 於 4 月底將德意志銀行的展望調升至正向,此前 S&P 與 Moody’s 也已先行將展望調升至正向。

  • As a result, we now have a positive fundamental rating outlook with all three mandated rating agencies. This reflects the progress we have made in transforming the bank, strengthening earnings resilience, and continuing to deliver against our strategic objectives.

    因此,目前三家受委任的評等機構均對我們的基本面評等展望給予正向評估。這反映我們在推動銀行轉型、強化獲利韌性,以及持續達成策略目標方面所取得的進展。

  • Moving to quarterly capital developments on slide 6. Starting with the CET1 ratio, we ended the quarter at 13.9%, up 11 basis points compared to the first quarter. Net income after deductions for AT1 coupons contributed 45 basis points, reflecting strong second-quarter earnings. While deductions for distributions of 27 basis points represent the 6% payout ratio in respect to 2026 financials. The other category increased by 11 basis points due to equity compensation and reduced capital deduction items, mainly from lower deferred tax assets.

    接著看投影片第 6 頁的季度資本變動。先從 CET1 比率來看,我們在本季末為 13.9%,較第一季上升 11 個基點。扣除 AT1 息票後的淨利貢獻 45 個基點,反映第二季強勁獲利。而分配扣減 27 個基點,代表就 2026 年財務表現而言的 6% 配息率。其他項目因股權薪酬以及資本扣減項目減少而增加 11 個基點,主要來自遞延所得稅資產下降。

  • Turning to risk-weighted assets, which increased by EUR5 billion, excluding FX effects of EUR1 billion. The main driver of this increase was business growth, mostly growth in loans and commitments alongside guaranteed funds in asset management. This was partially offset by increased RWA benefits from securitization and reduced CVA risk-weighted assets. We plan to launch new SRT platforms in the second half of the year to create additional RWA capacity.

    接著談到風險加權資產(RWA),在剔除外匯影響(EUR10億)後增加了EUR50億。此一增加的主要驅動因素為業務成長,主要是貸款與承諾的成長,以及資產管理中保證基金的增加。部分增幅被證券化帶來的RWA效益提升以及CVA風險加權資產下降所抵銷。我們計劃在今年下半年推出新的SRT平台,以創造額外的RWA容量。

  • Lastly, the other category of risk-weighted assets includes effects of model recalibrations. Our capital ratios remain well above regulatory requirements as shown on slide 7. The CET1 MDA buffer now stands at 270 basis points or EUR10 billion, reflecting the quarter-on-quarter increase in CET1 capital. The buffer to total capital requirement is 307 basis points, a further increase compared to the CET1 MDA buffer, mainly driven by our AT1 issuance during the quarter.

    最後,風險加權資產中的其他類別包含模型重新校準的影響。如投影片7所示,我們的資本比率仍遠高於監管要求。CET1 MDA緩衝目前為270個基點或EUR100億,反映CET1資本較上一季增加。相對於總資本要求的緩衝為307個基點,較CET1 MDA緩衝進一步提高,主要由於本季我們發行AT1所致。

  • On the leverage side, we ended the quarter at 4.5%, which is 5 basis points higher than prior quarter, leaving us with an MDA buffer equivalent to EUR13 billion of Tier 1 capital.

    在槓桿方面,我們本季末為4.5%,較前一季高5個基點,使我們擁有相當於EUR130億第一級資本的MDA緩衝。

  • We continue to operate with a significant loss-absorbing capacity well above all requirements, as shown on slide 8. The surplus over our MREL and TLAC requirements now stands at EUR22 billion. This reflects an increase of approximately EUR5 billion compared to the prior quarter. The majority of the increase came from a lower requirement received during the quarter, as previously guided, reflecting the significant progress the bank has made towards resolvability.

    如投影片8所示,我們持續維持顯著的損失吸收能力,且遠高於所有要求。目前我們超出MREL與TLAC要求的餘額為EUR220億。這反映較前一季約增加EUR50億。增幅的大部分來自於本季收到較低的要求(如先前所指引),反映本行在可處置性(resolvability)方面取得的重大進展。

  • In addition, higher volumes of MREL eligible liabilities on our balance sheet were not fully offset by the increase in RWA and leverage exposure. Our MREL surplus continues to give us meaningful flexibility to manage eligible liability issuance, and if market conditions or economics warrant, to pause new issuance for at least one year.

    此外,我們資產負債表上符合MREL資格的負債規模增加,並未被RWA與槓桿曝險的上升完全抵銷。我們的MREL超額仍為我們管理合格負債發行提供實質彈性;若市場狀況或經濟性需要,亦可至少暫停新的發行一年。

  • Moving now to the development of the loan book on slide 9. During the second quarter, loans grew by EUR5 billion or 1% to EUR491 billion. The underlying quality of the loan book remains strong, reflecting our conservative underwriting standards across all businesses.

    接著看投影片9的放款組合發展。第二季貸款增加EUR50億或1%,至EUR4,910億。放款組合的基本品質仍然強勁,反映我們在各項業務中採取保守的授信承作標準。

  • In the Private Bank, loan development remained aligned with our strategy, reflecting continued growth in wealth management, offset by reductions in selected retail lending portfolios. A further offset was driven by the classification of the India franchise as held for sale.

    在私人銀行方面,放款發展仍與我們的策略一致,反映財富管理持續成長,但被部分特定零售放款組合的縮減所抵銷。另一項抵銷因素來自將印度業務分類為待售。

  • Looking at the Corporate Bank, we have seen further growth in SVA positive portfolios in trade finance and lending. Within FICC financing, the growth momentum continued, primarily driven by the financing and solutions business, which includes well collateralized asset-backed lending. For the remainder of the year, we see further growth opportunities across all businesses, whilst our focus remains on value accretion and capital discipline.

    就企業銀行而言,我們在貿易融資與放款的SVA正向組合上看到進一步成長。在FICC融資方面,成長動能持續,主要由融資與解決方案業務帶動,其中包含具良好擔保的資產擔保放款。展望今年剩餘期間,我們在各項業務中仍看到進一步的成長機會,同時我們的重點仍放在價值增厚與資本紀律。

  • On slide 10, we provide details on the quarterly deposit development. Our well-diversified deposit book grew by EUR12 billion or 2% during the second quarter to EUR698 billion. Growth during the quarter has been driven by the Corporate Bank, where we saw an encouraging increase in sight deposit balances within corporate cash management.

    在投影片10,我們提供季度存款發展的細節。我們高度多元化的存款組合於第二季增加EUR120億或2%,至EUR6,980億。本季的成長主要由企業銀行帶動,我們在企業現金管理中的活期存款餘額出現令人鼓舞的增加。

  • In the Private Bank, deposit balances slightly increased, supported by underlying campaign inflows and growth in wealth management, and were partially offset by the classification of the India deposit franchise to held for sale. Looking ahead, we expect to continue to grow our deposit base in targeted portfolios in line with our strategy.

    在私人銀行方面,存款餘額小幅增加,受惠於活動帶來的資金流入及財富管理成長,但部分被將印度存款業務分類為待售所抵銷。展望未來,我們預期將依策略在目標組合中持續擴大存款基礎。

  • Moving to net interest income on slide 11. NII was solid at EUR3.6 billion across the key banking book segments and other funding, with sequential increases in all three segments. In the second quarter, deposit related NII continues to benefit from underlying volume growth and the contribution from our hedge portfolio. While loan NII benefited from client demand.

    接著看投影片11的淨利息收入(NII)。在主要銀行簿分部及其他資金來源方面,NII穩健達EUR36億,且三個分部皆呈現環比成長。第二季,與存款相關的NII持續受惠於基本量的成長以及避險組合的貢獻。同時,放款NII則受惠於客戶需求。

  • Looking at the divisions in the Private Bank, margins continued to progress steadily, particularly in deposits, with volumes broadly stable in the quarter. In the Corporate Bank, net interest income also went up sequentially with both deposits and loans supported by increased client activity. In FICC financing, the results reflected continued strong demand for lending.

    就私人銀行各分部而言,利差持續穩步改善,尤其是存款端,而本季量大致持平。在企業銀行方面,淨利息收入亦環比上升,存款與放款皆受惠於客戶活動增加。在FICC融資方面,結果反映放款需求持續強勁。

  • For the full year, we expect NII across key banking book segments and other funding to slightly exceed our prior guidance of around EUR14 billion and benefits from recent rate decisions to become more pronounced in 2027 and 2028, reflecting our structural hedging approach.

    就全年而言,我們預期主要銀行簿分部及其他資金來源的NII將略高於先前約EUR140億的指引;近期利率決策帶來的效益將在2027與2028年更為明顯,反映我們的結構性避險策略。

  • On slide 12, which is based on market implied forward rates as at the end of June, you can see our multi-year NII tailwind from rolling our hedge portfolio. The total volume of hedges is increasing over time as we grow stable non-interest-bearing deposits with around EUR210 billion now invested longer term. The yield of maturing hedges this year is around 60 basis points on average, and the 10-year swap rate at which they are reinvested is currently around 3%.

    在投影片12(以6月底的市場隱含遠期利率為基礎),您可看到我們透過滾動避險組合所帶來的多年期NII順風。隨著我們擴大穩定的無息存款,避險總量將隨時間增加,目前約EUR2,100億已進行較長期投資。今年到期避險的平均收益率約為60個基點,而其再投資所對應的10年期交換利率目前約為3%。

  • Over the last quarter, we have opportunistically executed some forward-starting hedges at attractive rates, with the result that the amount of NII benefit which is locked in has increased to around 90% for 2027 and 80% for 2028. The sensitivity of our reported NII to rate moves has further reduced as a result, and you can see that in the usual appendix slide.

    過去一季,我們把握機會以具吸引力的利率執行部分遠期起始避險,因此已鎖定的NII效益比例提高至2027年約90%、2028年約80%。因此,我們已揭露的NII對利率變動的敏感度進一步下降,您可在慣例的附錄投影片中看到。

  • Moving to our liquidity and funding profile on slide 13, which remains strong in the second quarter. Our liquidity coverage ratio was 140%, comfortably above the regulatory requirement. We ended the quarter with EUR237 billion of high-quality liquid assets, and the composition of that buffer continues to be very strong, with a large majority held in cash and Level 1 securities. Our net stable funding ratio was 118%, while available stable funding increased to EUR657 billion.

    接著看投影片13的流動性與資金來源概況,第二季仍維持強勁。我們的流動性覆蓋率(LCR)為140%,明顯高於監管要求。本季末我們持有EUR2,370億高品質流動性資產,而該緩衝的組成仍非常強健,絕大多數以現金與第1級證券持有。我們的淨穩定資金比率(NSFR)為118%,可用穩定資金增加至EUR6,570億。

  • The ratio remained broadly flat versus the prior quarter and reflects the business growth and associated increase in required stable funding sources, which was offset by stable funding contribution, mainly from Corporate Bank deposits. Overall, these ratios continue to underscore the resilience and diversification of a liquidity and funding base.

    該比率較前一季大致持平,反映業務成長及相應所需穩定資金來源的增加,但被穩定資金貢獻(主要來自企業銀行存款)所抵銷。整體而言,這些比率持續凸顯我們流動性與資金基礎的韌性與多元化。

  • Let us now look at our issuance plan on slide 14. Credit markets remain resilient in the second quarter, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, supporting continued issuance activity. Since the last fixed income call at the end of April, we have issued a total of EUR2.9 billion, taking the year to date total to EUR9 billion, or more than 70% of the midpoint of our 2026 guidance. Issuance highlights in the quarter included a EUR1.25 billion AT1 at the tightest spread ever for a euro AT1 instrument issued by Deutsche Bank. The deal attracted a large investor base with more than 225 investors.

    現在讓我們看投影片14的發行計畫。第二季信貸市場在持續的地緣政治不確定性下仍具韌性,支持發行活動延續。自4月底上次固定收益電話會議以來,我們合計發行EUR29億,使年初至今總額達EUR90億,已超過我們2026年指引中點的70%。本季發行亮點包括一筆EUR12.5億AT1,為德意志銀行所發行歐元AT1工具中史上最緊的利差。該交易吸引了龐大的投資人基礎,投資人數超過225位。

  • We also issued a EUR1 billion [6%] non-call 5 senior non-preferred issuance, which attracted more than EUR6.5 billion in total orders, and a CNY3.5 billion senior preferred dual tranche with maturities in 2029 and 2031, taking our cumulative panda bond funding to CNY9 billion in 2026.

    我們亦發行一筆EUR10億[6%]不可於第5年贖回(non-call 5)的高級非優先(senior non-preferred)債券,總認購訂單超過EUR65億;並發行一筆CNY35億的高級優先(senior preferred)雙分券,分別於2029年與2031年到期,使我們在2026年的熊貓債累計融資達CNY90億。

  • On capital, we have an upcoming call decision for our 4.5% euro AT1 bond, which is callable in November 2026 by giving notification no later than October 31. Based on current markets, the coupon would reset to roughly 7.3%, which is above current new issue levels. As usual, we will take a decision on this security closer to the call date after considering several factors, including capital demand, refinancing levels versus reset, as well as market expectations. We confirm our funding requirements for 2026 remain between EUR10 billion and EUR15 billion.

    在資本方面,我們即將就我們4.5%歐元AT1債券作出提前贖回(call)決定;該債券可於2026年11月行使提前贖回,且最遲須於10月31日前發出通知。依據目前市場情況,票息重設後約為7.3%,高於目前新發行水準。一如既往,我們將在更接近提前贖回日之際,綜合考量多項因素後再就該證券作出決定,包括資本需求、再融資成本相對於重設後票息水準,以及市場預期。我們確認,2026年的融資需求仍介於100億至150億歐元之間。

  • To conclude on slide 15, we are on track to meet our objectives for 2026. Our divisions are performing well, and strong first half revenues are putting us firmly on track to comfortably deliver on our revenue ambition of around EUR33 billion. We continue to prudently pace our planned investments throughout the year, generate operating efficiencies, and deliver on our full-year expense guidance in line with our investor day commitments.

    最後總結第15頁,我們正按計畫達成2026年的目標。各事業部表現良好,上半年強勁的營收使我們穩健地朝著約330億歐元的營收目標邁進,並可望從容達成。我們持續在全年審慎安排既定投資進度、提升營運效率,並依照投資人日的承諾,達成全年費用指引。

  • Asset quality remains strong and portfolios are performing in line with expectations. We remain vigilant to potential geopolitical and other risks in the operating environment and expect our portfolios to remain resilient to those challenges.

    資產品質仍然強勁,各投資組合表現符合預期。我們對營運環境中潛在的地緣政治及其他風險保持警覺,並預期我們的投資組合將能對這些挑戰維持韌性。

  • On an underlying basis, we continue to expect provision for credit losses to reduce slightly year on year. We remain committed to delivering attractive capital returns. That is why we continue to make CET1 capital deductions in line with our 60% payout ratio target, which balances the interests of all our stakeholders.

    以基礎口徑來看,我們仍預期信用損失準備金將較去年略為下降。我們仍致力於提供具吸引力的資本回饋。因此,我們持續依照60%配息率目標進行CET1資本扣減,以平衡所有利害關係人的利益。

  • The EUR500 million share buyback from 2026 net income announced yesterday will commence upon completion of the current EUR1 billion share buyback. First half year profitability lays a solid foundation for strong operating performance in 2026, and you can see this in our businesses. And finally, we have already issued a substantial amount of our funding plan and plan to issue primarily more senior instruments in the second half of the year.

    昨日宣布、來自2026年淨利的5億歐元庫藏股回購,將在目前10億歐元庫藏股回購完成後啟動。上半年獲利能力為2026年強勁的營運表現奠定堅實基礎,這點也可在我們各項業務中看見。最後,我們已發行了相當大部分的融資計畫,並計畫在下半年主要發行更多優先級工具。

  • With that, let us turn to your questions.

    接下來,我們進入提問環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Lee Street, Citigroup.

    (接線員指示) 花旗集團的Lee Street。

  • Lee Street - Analyst

    Lee Street - Analyst

  • Well done on the results and thank you for hosting this call. I have three questions, please. Firstly, the call this day was pretty bullish and pretty upbeat. But from a fixed income perspective and against the backdrop of very tight spreads, I’d just like to get your thoughts on what you see as the main risks, be it micro or macro, that Deutsche might face that could cause spread widening from here.

    恭喜你們的業績,也感謝舉辦這場電話會議。我有三個問題。第一,今天這場電話會議的基調相當樂觀、也相當正向。但從固定收益的角度、並在利差非常緊縮的背景下,我想請教你們認為德意志銀行接下來可能面臨、會導致利差從此處開始擴大的主要風險是什麼?不論是微觀或宏觀層面。

  • Secondly, we’ve seen how much the big US banks have issued lots and lots of debt, significant in excess of what they’ve issued in prior years to essentially grow the balance sheet, given returns available. You’re obviously not doing that, I suppose. Why are you not doing that? I suppose would be my question.

    第二,我們看到大型美國銀行發行了大量債務,明顯高於過去幾年的發行量,基本上是為了在可得報酬的驅動下擴張資產負債表。你們顯然沒有這麼做,我想。你們為什麼不這麼做?這是我的問題。

  • Finally, I think a big theme over the last couple of quarters has been growing equities revenues for Investment Banks. What would it take for you to rethink about reentering that market? Would be my question. They’re my questions.

    最後,我認為過去幾個季度的一個重要主題,是投資銀行的股票業務收入成長。要在什麼情況下,你們才會重新思考再度進入那個市場?這是我的問題。以上是我的問題。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer

  • Hi, Lee, this is Raja. Thanks for your questions. I will take the first and the third question, and I will have Richard speak on the second one.

    嗨,Lee,我是Raja。謝謝你的提問。我會回答第一個和第三個問題,第二個問題我會請Richard來說明。

  • Look, the call yesterday was clearly one of confidence. I think it’s on the back of our franchise momentum and what we’ve been able to accomplish versus our targets in the first half of the year. It doesn’t mean that we are not watching the macro environment broadly very closely because it is a complicated one. We just were able to perform really well despite the uncertainties that are out there. We certainly don’t think that the environment is completely benign from the perspective of geopolitics.

    你看,昨天的提前贖回(call)很明顯是基於信心所做的決定。我認為這是建立在我們特許經營動能,以及我們在上半年相對於目標所達成的成果之上。這並不代表我們沒有密切關注整體宏觀環境,因為那確實相當複雜。只是儘管外部存在不確定性,我們仍能表現得非常好。從地緣政治角度來看,我們當然不認為環境完全風平浪靜。

  • Look, you are asking the right question. First of all, it’s a matter of resilience. We want to make sure that we have very strong and liquidity buffers, which we do, to we’ve been pretty focused on where we deploy the balance sheet in this environment. What are we watching for?

    你問得很對。首先,這關乎韌性。我們希望確保擁有非常強的資本與流動性緩衝,而我們確實具備;同時在這樣的環境下,我們也相當專注於資產負債表的部署方向。我們在觀察什麼?

  • Look, I think obviously one is the obvious one, that geopolitical situation is quite relevant. There’s obviously some inflation risk upside to the upside. But at the same time, what we have tried to do is, one, we don’t have any direct exposure to the situation from a geopolitics perspective, which is a good thing.

    我想,顯而易見的一點是地緣政治局勢相當關鍵。通膨風險也顯然存在上行可能。但同時,我們努力做到的是:第一,從地緣政治角度而言,我們沒有任何直接曝險,這是好事。

  • But on the other hand, we were being a little bit proactive, and as you know, last quarter, we built an overlay just to kind of anticipate some of the risks that we saw that could potentially materialize. Now, none of them have. So to date, the German consumer and the corporate estate somewhat resilient. So that’s one. I think we clearly are obviously looking for how long this shock will go on and what potentially could be outcome to the energy-dependent industries.

    但另一方面,我們也採取較為主動的作法;如你所知,上個季度我們建立了一個額外準備(overlay),用以預先因應我們看到可能會實現的一些風險。目前為止,這些風險都尚未發生。因此截至目前,德國消費者與企業部門仍算具韌性。這是一點。我認為我們也明確在觀察這波衝擊會持續多久,以及對能源依賴型產業可能造成的結果。

  • Two, obviously, CRE. That is something that we’ve been looking at for a while, particularly the office sector in the West Coast. We’re not seeing, frankly, deterioration in our portfolio. We are not seeing new positions entering into default. But there’s clearly the legacy portfolio that you could continue to see revaluation risks. But there, too, we think it’s prudent to be proactive. As Richard talked about, we deciding that we want to de-risk our portfolio at a faster pace there, especially with AI in the future and potentially what impact that could have on the number of offices that are going to be needed and what the productivity needs will drive.

    第二,當然是商用不動產(CRE)。這是我們關注一段時間的議題,特別是美國西岸的辦公室類別。坦白說,我們沒有看到投資組合惡化。我們沒有看到新的部位進入違約。但顯然在存量(legacy)投資組合上,你仍可能持續看到重估風險。不過在這方面,我們也認為採取主動作法是審慎的。正如Richard所談到的,我們決定要以更快的速度在那裡降低風險,尤其考量未來AI以及其可能對所需辦公室數量、以及生產力需求驅動因素所造成的影響。

  • So clearly that is something that we want to need to watch for, therefore, we are being a little bit more proactive on that space. Look, in the last quarter, there was a lot of discussion around private credits, and we have obviously put our information out there. We’ve kind of maintained our positions. We try to lend to sponsors that have a diverse business model. We try to have a lower advance rate, comfortable with the exposure and underwriting standards, but that’s a space we want to watch understandably so market is focused on the tail risks.

    因此,這顯然是我們需要持續關注的領域;也因此我們在該領域採取更主動一些的作法。你看,上個季度市場對私募信貸(private credit)有很多討論,而我們也已經對外提供了相關資訊。我們大致維持既有部位。我們嘗試把資金借給商業模式多元的贊助方(sponsors)。我們力求較低的預支率(advance rate),並對曝險與承作標準感到安心;但這確實是我們需要關注的領域,市場也理所當然地聚焦於尾端風險。

  • The interesting part there is that despite all the discussion on private credit, the borrowers that are in the upper spectrum, that where we tend to lend to, they haven’t seen a spread blowout because people are being pretty picky who they lend to, and they can still get their lending done at a good spread because people want to lend to people who they feel are more secure.

    有趣的是,儘管市場對私募信貸有諸多討論,但在我們通常放款的較高品質借款人區間,他們並沒有出現利差大幅擴張,因為放款人對放款對象相當挑剔;而且他們仍能以不錯的利差完成融資,因為大家都想把錢借給他們認為更安全的對象。

  • So yes, I think there are few things that I mentioned. We don’t anticipate that the spreads will stay this tight forever. That’s why I think we have to be present, part of it is our business model, which is over time going to be less and less balance sheet dependent, more and more capital-light, fee-based businesses. That’s the way we are navigating.

    所以是的,我認為我提到的有幾個面向。我們不預期利差會永遠維持這麼緊。因此我認為我們必須保持在場;其中一部分也來自我們的商業模式:隨著時間推進,將越來越不依賴資產負債表、越來越偏向資本輕、以費用為主的業務。這就是我們的應對方式。

  • Look, the other question to you was about equities. We made a decision in 2019 that we did not want, that the business of trading was not something that we could really see benefiting from, or it’s a scale business. That strategic decision we stick by.

    你看,剛才你問的另一個問題是關於股票。我們在2019年做了一個決定:我們不想做,因為交易業務並不是我們真正能看到會受益的領域,或者說那是一個需要規模的生意。我們會堅持那個策略性決定。

  • But we did say as the global house bank, we wanted to retain an equity capital markets franchise, which we did, and that has actually continued to do well this quarter. We participated in some of the larger transactions that happened in the US. We clearly have a very strong presence in EMEA. We have a research presence which also supports our corporate finance business. So that’s the area we’re continuing to invest in.

    但我們確實也說過,作為全球主辦行,我們希望保留股票資本市場(ECM)的業務平台,我們也做到了,而且本季表現其實持續不錯。我們參與了美國發生的一些較大型交易。我們在歐洲、中東與非洲(EMEA)顯然有非常強的布局。我們也有研究團隊,並且支援我們的企業融資業務。所以這就是我們會持續投資的領域。

  • But at the same time, look, I think you asked a risk question. The equity markets have been extremely hot, and people have done extremely well. If you were to think about what the risk is, we don’t have that exposure, but how much prime brokerage exposure that has been put out there by others.

    但同時,你看,我想你問的是風險問題。股票市場一直非常火熱,很多人表現非常好。如果要思考風險是什麼,我們沒有那樣的曝險,但要看的是其他機構在主經紀(prime brokerage)方面放出了多少曝險。

  • Thankfully, from our perspective, we haven’t participated in the upside, but consequently, we also are somewhat insulated from the downside if something was to happen. So I would say we’re happy with what we have.

    從我們的角度來看,幸好我們沒有參與上行的收益,但相對地,如果真的發生什麼事,我們在下行方面也在某種程度上更有緩衝。所以我會說,我們對目前所擁有的配置感到滿意。

  • Our goal is to just kind of invest in our advisory and origination business but not redo or recreate our cash equities or prime broker-style platform. That’s kind of where we are pretty certain that’s not where we’re going to go back to.

    我們的目標是持續投資在顧問與承銷/發行(origination)業務,但不會重新做、或重建我們的現金股票(cash equities)或類似主經紀的平台。這就是我們目前的立場:我們相當確定不會回到那條路上。

  • Richard, I don’t know if you want to take the balance sheet question.

    Richard,我不知道你是否想回答資產負債表的問題。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Sure. Thanks, Raja, and thanks Lee for your questions, and thanks for joining. So I guess around the growing the balance sheet through issuance from the US bank perspective, I’d say a few things. One is, in terms of our own issuance plan, we’ve issued EUR9 billion year to date already this year, and that’s sort of three quarters of our plan when you take the midpoint of the range. So we’ve substantially kind of issued for the year, if you like, to kind of de-risk that component vis-à-vis credit spreads.

    當然。謝謝你,Raja,也謝謝Lee的提問,謝謝你加入。關於從美國銀行(US bank)的角度,透過發行來擴大資產負債表這件事,我想說幾點。第一,就我們自己的發行計畫而言,今年截至目前我們已經發行了90億歐元,若以區間中點來看,這大概是我們計畫的四分之三。所以可以說,我們今年在發行方面已經做了相當多,以降低相對於信用利差(credit spreads)的那部分風險。

  • And on top of that, we’ve issued more spread sensitive issuance as well. So we did a Tier 2 in Q1, we did AT1 in Q2. Of course, we can use that to deploy our balance sheet, not just for lending but also for client demand and FICC.

    此外,我們也發行了對利差更敏感的工具。所以我們在第一季做了二級資本(Tier 2),第二季做了額外一級資本(AT1)。當然,我們可以用這些來運用資產負債表,不僅用於放款,也用於滿足客戶需求以及FICC(固定收益、外匯與大宗商品)。

  • So we have, I guess, been issuing. But to be clear, we’re not dependent in terms of our 2028 target perspective on putting outsized balance sheet to work to deliver those targets, right? We’re pretty comfortable we can do that organically through our own initiatives. But of course, we saw some attractive risk-adjusted returns, then, of course, we’ll support our clients accordingly.

    所以我們確實一直在發行。但要說清楚,從我們對2028年目標的角度來看,我們並不依賴把超大規模的資產負債表投入運作來達成那些目標,對吧?我們相當有信心可以透過自身的各項措施有機地達成。但當然,如果我們看到具吸引力的風險調整後報酬,那麼我們也會相應地支持客戶。

  • I guess I’m not quite sure where you want us to go in this direction, but from a funding perspective, we have much larger sources of stable funding beyond issuance. In particular, retail deposit base, which a couple of the US peers that you mentioned don’t have. Those would be my thoughts to your question.

    我不太確定你希望我們在這個方向延伸到哪裡,但就資金來源而言,除了發行之外,我們還有更大的穩定資金來源。特別是零售存款基礎,這是你提到的幾家美國同業所沒有的。以上是我對你問題的看法。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Smalley, MacKay Shields.

    Robert Smalley,MacKay Shields。

  • Robert Smalley - Analyst

    Robert Smalley - Analyst

  • Just two. One on deposit competition. If you talk to French banks, Benelux banks, even a US bank, they all see an opportunity in growing deposits in Germany. Can you talk about where they’re growing these deposits and how you’re meeting their challenge? And secondly, if you could talk a little bit more about your data center exposure and what your plans are around that business going forward. Thank you.

    兩個問題。第一個是關於存款競爭。如果你和法國銀行、比荷盧銀行,甚至一家美國銀行聊,他們都看到在德國擴大存款的機會。你能談談他們是在哪些地方增加這些存款,以及你們如何應對他們的挑戰嗎?第二,如果你能再多談一點你們對資料中心的曝險,以及你們未來對這項業務的規劃。謝謝。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Robert. This is Raja. I’ll take it. Look, I think I’ve said that before. We, in some ways, feel privileged to be the largest bank in an environment where everybody thinks there’s a lot of opportunity for deposits and to raise liquidity because just the amount or the size of the market actually means that there’s something for everyone, depending on the rate chasers or people who actually want to build client relationships.

    謝謝你,Robert。我是Raja。我來回答。你看,我之前也說過。在某種程度上,我們覺得很有優勢,作為最大的銀行身處在一個大家都認為存款有很多機會、可以提升流動性的環境中,因為市場的量體/規模本身就意味著每個人都有機會,取決於是追逐利率的人,或是想建立客戶關係的人。

  • So we obviously are seeing, and obviously a new US bank entered the market with very attractive promotional offer. From a Deutsche Bank brand perspective, try not to get into that race. Obviously, we go with competitive offers of our own. Last year, we did a promotion which went really well, in fact, exceeded our expectations.

    所以我們當然有看到,而且顯然有一家新的美國銀行以非常有吸引力的促銷方案進入市場。以德意志銀行的品牌角度,我們會盡量不捲入那種競價。當然,我們也會推出具競爭力的自家方案。去年我們做了一次促銷,效果非常好,事實上超出我們的預期。

  • So what we are seeing is, yes, certainly there is going to be a portion or a subsegment of the population that is going to take that promotional offer, especially if it comes with a long period of that rate. Generally, that tends to move away and either it reverts back or we are obviously doing our own promotions, not at the same rate. We have a brand called norisbank, which is a very niche brand that we would try to test the market out.

    所以我們看到的是:是的,確實會有一部分或某個子族群會接受那個促銷方案,尤其是如果那個利率能維持很長一段期間。一般而言,那些資金之後往往會流出,可能回到原狀;或者我們也會做自己的促銷,但利率不會一樣高。我們有一個品牌叫norisbank,這是一個非常利基的品牌,我們會用它來測試市場。

  • If I look at the overall impact that it has had on our plans, it is negligible. Obviously, we saw some level of movement between us and the new entrants. But if I was to look at how we had modeled what the retention was going to be for our promotions, post the promotional period ending, it is pretty much in line. So that gives me a lot of confidence.

    如果我看整體對我們計畫的影響,是微不足道的。當然,我們看到我們與新進者之間有一定程度的移動。但如果我看我們在促銷結束後、對留存率(retention)的模型假設,實際結果基本上符合預期。這讓我很有信心。

  • Obviously, the other thing that we are able to offer versus some of the banks is that we have a wealth management franchise in Germany, which is very strong. So at some point, we also -- and people are usually generally less price sensitive, and if we feel that the market dynamics are not that helpful, then we would much rather bring deposits from a different source. But so far, while we have certainly seen some promotional impact, it has not been to the extent that would make us rethink either our deposit pricing strategy or what we want to do in the long term.

    當然,另一個我們相較某些銀行能提供的是:我們在德國有非常強的財富管理(wealth management)業務。所以在某個時點,我們也可以——而且通常這類客戶對價格的敏感度較低;如果我們覺得市場動態不太有利,那我們寧可從不同來源引入存款。但到目前為止,雖然我們確實看到一些促銷帶來的影響,但程度還不足以讓我們重新思考存款定價策略或我們長期想做的事。

  • Look, on the data center side, the exposure is pretty tightly managed. It is, I would say, probably high single digits. It is again, what we try to do is stick with pretty high-quality sponsors that are backed by large tech companies. We try not to go with monolines or people that essentially have one product kind of a setup.

    你看,在資料中心方面,我們的曝險管理得相當嚴謹。我會說大概是高個位數(high single digits)。同樣地,我們努力只與高品質的贊助方(sponsors)合作,這些贊助方背後有大型科技公司支持。我們盡量不與單一產品線(monoline)或基本上只有一個產品架構的業者合作。

  • So again, I mentioned it is not dissimilar to the private credit discussion. If you can stick with that upper echelon of borrowers with high-quality sponsors behind you and with a good loan to value, I think we feel pretty comfortable. Our goal is not to get overly big in that space, but kind of maintain our market positioning. But in the end of the day, it is not an area which it is growing disproportionally to our loan book.

    所以我也提過,這和私募信貸(private credit)的討論並沒有太大不同。如果你能鎖定那一群最上層的借款人,背後有高品質贊助方,且有良好的貸款價值比(loan to value),我想我們會覺得相當安心。我們的目標不是在這個領域做得過大,而是維持我們的市場定位。但歸根結底,這並不是一個相對於我們的放款組合(loan book)而言成長不成比例的領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Daniel David, Autonomous Research.

    (接線員指示)Daniel David,Autonomous Research。

  • Daniel David - Analyst

    Daniel David - Analyst

  • Congratulations on the results. I’ve got three questions. The first one’s on MREL. Following your comments, I can see the large reduction in the subordinated MREL requirement, and I know the slides show TLAC without the senior preferred exemption, which could be added in.

    恭喜這次的業績表現。我有三個問題。第一個是關於 MREL。根據你們的說明,我看到次順位 MREL 要求大幅下降;我也知道投影片呈現的是未納入「優先無擔保(senior preferred)豁免」的 TLAC,而這項豁免是可以加回去的。

  • So the question is, could this drive you to target lower subordinated headroom over time? And I ask because I think this could be quite a positive message with the Italian banks potentially headed in the other direction.

    所以問題是:這是否會促使你們隨時間推進,將次順位的緩衝目標(headroom)設定得更低?我之所以這麼問,是因為我認為,若義大利銀行可能朝相反方向發展,這對你們而言可能是一個相當正面的訊息。

  • The second one’s just on the European Commission proposals, which you also mentioned. You spoke about FRTB, but I’m just interested in which one you think could bring the largest benefit to Deutsche, flooring intangibles, MREL. Just interested in your views.

    第二個問題是關於你們也提到的歐盟執委會提案。你談到了 FRTB,但我想了解的是:你認為哪一項可能為德意志銀行帶來最大的效益——例如無形資產(intangibles)下限(flooring)、MREL 等。想聽聽你的看法。

  • Finally, just a quick one. Could you give any indication of the risk density in the FICC financing book? Thanks.

    最後一個很快的問題。你能否提供任何關於 FICC 融資投資組合(financing book)風險密度的指引?謝謝。

  • Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

    Richard Stewart - Group Treasurer

  • Hi, Dan. Richard here. I guess I’ll take the MREL question. So yes, you saw our requirements have reduced, and so that gives us more headroom in terms of how we operate today in terms of surplus to those requirements.

    嗨,Dan。我是 Richard。我想我來回答 MREL 的問題。是的,你看到我們的要求已經降低,因此就我們目前的運作而言,相對於這些要求的超額(surplus)空間更大。

  • And so as we think about our issuance plans going forward then, that kind of process is just kicking off now. Making sure we optimize our stack to ensure that we can meet those requirements and continue to have sufficient headroom is obviously on our minds, but I’d say that we’re pleased with the messaging we received from our supervisor. Therefore, that gives us more options in terms of when we issue, how we issue, and the kind of tenors we need to do. So in that sense, that is helpful.

    因此,當我們思考未來的發行計畫時,相關流程現在才剛開始啟動。確保我們最佳化資本/負債結構(stack),以確保能滿足這些要求並持續保有足夠緩衝,顯然是我們關注的重點;但我會說,我們對監理機關傳達給我們的訊息感到滿意。因此,這讓我們在何時發行、如何發行,以及需要做哪些期限(tenor)的安排上,有更多選擇。就這個意義而言,確實有幫助。

  • But our TLAC requirement doesn’t change, just to clarify that aspect. So in short, extra buffer capacity is always helpful, just allows us to pause our issuance as and when we need to, and then issue when we see prices which are attractive to us. So in that sense, I think it’s clearly a positive.

    但澄清一下,我們的 TLAC 要求並沒有改變。簡而言之,額外的緩衝容量永遠是有幫助的,讓我們可以在需要時暫停發行,並在看到對我們有吸引力的價格時再發行。因此,就這點而言,我認為這顯然是正面的。

  • And then, I guess your second question was on the European Commission proposals. Was that it? I guess the various dimensions are in play there. I guess first of all, I think the proposal is just that right now. So we think that the direction of travel and the switch to a more growth-based approach is clearly welcome. I think what we understand as well for something like FRTB is it’s still scheduled for January 1, 2027. We feel that will be extended beyond that, and from a level playing field perspective, I think that’s welcome.

    然後,我想你的第二個問題是關於歐盟執委會的提案。是這個嗎?我想其中有多個面向正在發展中。首先,我認為目前這仍然只是「提案」。因此,我們認為政策方向朝向更以成長為導向的作法轉變,明顯是值得歡迎的。另外,就像 FRTB 這類議題,我們的理解是仍預定於 2027 年 1 月 1 日實施。我們認為這個時點會再往後延,從公平競爭環境(level playing field)的角度來看,我認為這也是值得歡迎的。

  • All three jurisdictions, I guess the main jurisdictions, whether it’s the UK, US, and Europe, they are looking to ensure there is a regulation playing field is something that they are focused on. Certainly, they want to enact Basel relatively quickly.

    我想三個主要司法管轄區——也就是英國、美國與歐洲——都在致力於確保監理上的公平競爭環境,這是他們關注的重點。當然,他們也希望能相對快速地落實巴塞爾規範。

  • I think in terms of the transitional arrangements, which the topics around the unrelated corporates, it’s around mortgages, I think those are aspects that are welcome to be discussed. Obviously, at same when we talked about the output floor disclosures we had a few quarters ago, those were the areas we thought those transitional arrangements were something that we thought could be changed at a subsequent date. And that seems to be, I would say, the direction of travel that we’re seeing so far.

    我認為就過渡安排而言——包括與「非關聯企業(unrelated corporates)」相關的議題,以及房貸等——我認為這些面向都值得討論。顯然,同樣地,當我們在幾季前談到產出下限(output floor)揭露時,我們就認為這些過渡安排是可能在之後某個時間點被調整的領域。而到目前為止,我會說我們看到的趨勢方向大致如此。

  • Again, we’ll just have to wait to see where that thinking lands, I guess, sometime in early 2027, when we get some greater clarity from the regulators. I think the direction of travel is a positive one. But for us to hit the unrelated corporates pieces is probably the most impactful for us. I think that’s what I would say is the answer to that question.

    同樣地,我們只能等待看看這些想法最終會落在哪裡;我想大概在 2027 年初,當監理機關提供更清楚的訊息時,我們會更明朗。我認為整體趨勢方向是正面的。但對我們而言,若能處理「非關聯企業」那一塊,可能是對我們影響最大的。我想這就是我對這個問題的回答。

  • Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer

    Raja Akram - Chief Financial Officer

  • Richard, sorry. I would just like to add. Actually, Dan, you're right. Autonomous has actually put out a pretty interesting study last week about the European Commission report and the impact on European banks, and I think actually the report noted that Deutsche would actually be one of the high outsized beneficiary of the proposal.

    Richard,不好意思。我想補充一下。其實 Dan,你說得對。Autonomous 上週確實發布了一份相當有意思的研究,談到歐盟執委會報告及其對歐洲銀行的影響;而我認為該報告指出,德意志銀行實際上會是此提案的主要、且受益幅度特別突出的受益者之一。

  • Obviously, they have to go through and depending on how they could go through. But on all three aspects of it, whether it’s the output floor, if it’s the buffers, we think it’s actually quite meaningful for us, assuming that it actually goes through the way we think, including P2R. So I think that’s the way I would think about it.

    當然,這些提案仍需走完程序,而且取決於最終如何推進。但就其三個面向而言——不論是產出下限(output floor)、或是緩衝(buffers)——我們認為對我們其實相當有意義,前提是最終確實如我們所想的方式通過,包括 P2R。所以我會用這樣的方式來看待。

  • In terms of your RWA density question, it’s kind of a harder one to answer given so many structures of collateral. But I would say it’s probably between, if I were to guess, I would say it’s right between 30% and 40%, if I was to think about a general number. But that’s where we would think it would end.

    至於你問的 RWA 密度問題,因為擔保品結構很多樣,所以比較難回答。但如果要我猜一個大致的數字,我會說大概介於 30% 到 40% 之間。我想我們的看法大概會落在這個區間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Philipp Teuchner for any closing remarks.

    各位女士先生,以上是最後一個提問。現在我想把會議交回給 Philipp Teuchner,請他做結語。

  • Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

    Philip Teuchner - Head of Debt Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Matilda. And just to finish up, thank you all for joining us today. You know where the IR team is if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you soon again. Goodbye, and have a nice day.

    謝謝你,Matilda。最後,再次感謝各位今天加入我們。如果你們還有任何問題,知道投資人關係(IR)團隊在哪裡可以聯繫到;我們也期待很快再次與各位交流。再見,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye

    各位女士先生,會議現在結束。感謝您選擇 Chorus Call,也感謝您參與本次會議。您現在可以掛斷電話線。再見。