Deutsche Bank AG (DB) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Q4 2024 analyst conference call and live webcast. I'm [Jorgian], the Chorus Call operator. (Operator Instructions) The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast. At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to an Ioana Patriniche, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 2024 年第四季分析師電話會議和網路直播。我是 [Jorgian]，Chorus Call 的接線生。（操作員指示）會議不得錄製以供出版或廣播。現在，我很高興將會議交給投資者關係主管 Ioana Patriniche。請繼續。

Thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 preliminary results call. As usual, our Chief Executive Officer, Christian Sewing, will speak first; followed by our Chief Financial Officer, James von Moltke. The presentation, as always, is available to download in the Investor Relations section of our website, db.com.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年初步業績電話會議。像往常一樣，我們的執行長 Christian Sewing 將首先發言；然後是我們的財務長 James von Moltke。像往常一樣，您可以在我們網站 db.com 的投資者關係部分下載該簡報。

Before we get started, let me just remind you the presentation contains forward-looking statements, which may not develop as we currently expect. We, therefore, ask you to take notice of the precaution rewarding at the end of our materials.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒您，簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述可能不會按照我們目前預期的方式發展。因此，我們請您注意我們材料末尾的預防措施。

And with that, let me hand over to Christian.

現在，請允許我把發言權交給克里斯蒂安。

Thank you, Ioana, and a warm welcome from me. Before we discuss our preliminary 2024 financials in detail, I wanted to offer you my perspective on 2024. This was a vital transition year for us, which has seen us deliver crucial building blocks in the transformation of our business model.

謝謝你，伊奧娜，我向你表示熱烈的歡迎。在我們詳細討論 2024 年的初步財務狀況之前，我想先向您介紹一下我對 2024 年的看法。對我們來說，這是至關重要的轉型之年，在這一年中，我們在商業模式轉型中奠定了重要的基石。

We have moved past a number of legacy items absorbing a series of nonoperating costs, predominantly litigation matters, which have masked the underlying strength of our business. Our operating performance demonstrated execution against our plans as our pre-provision profit increased by 19% compared to 2023, if adjusted for certain specific items.

我們已經擺脫了一些遺留項目，吸收了一系列非營運成本，主要是訴訟事項，這些成本掩蓋了我們業務的潛在實力。我們的經營業績表明，我們的計劃得到了執行，如果針對某些特定項目進行調整，我們的撥備前利潤將比 2023 年增長 19%。

Importantly, however, we are now set for a clean and significantly more profitable year in 2025 with the foundation now build for further improvements in the years beyond.

然而，重要的是，我們現在已經準備好在 2025 年實現清潔且利潤顯著提高，並為未來幾年的進一步改善奠定基礎。

Let me spend a bit more time talking through this turnaround work, which has resulted in a fundamentally different bank in terms of earnings power, in combination with a better risk profile and improved resilience, all of which are visible in our 2024 financials.

讓我花更多時間談談這項扭轉局面的工作，這項工作使銀行在盈利能力方面發生了根本性的變化，同時還提高了風險狀況和韌性，所有這些都在我們 2024 年的財務狀況中得到了體現。

Let's start with the top line. First and foremost, we have successfully positioned all our businesses to perform by strengthening our market position, reinforcing our focus on clients, and working with deep dedication as their Global Hausbank.

讓我們從第一行開始。首先，我們透過加強市場地位、強化對客戶的關注以及作為客戶的全球 Hausbank 全心全意地工作，成功地定位了我們所有的業務。

Our business have clear momentum which is visible through our revenue delivery of over EUR30 billion, well above what we thought would be achievable when we first set our 2025 targets. And we are very pleased with the strong start of this year, which, again, demonstrates our clear franchise momentum.

我們的業務勢頭明顯，我們實現了超過 300 億歐元的收入，遠遠超出了我們最初設定 2025 年目標時所認為的水平。我們對今年的強勁開局感到非常高興，這再次證明了我們特許經營的明顯勢頭。

Second, on expenses, we delivered on our adjusted cost guidance of EUR5 billion each quarter when excluding the already guided exceptional items. We have continued to execute on our operational efficiency measures, which gave us room to make critical investments into business growth, technology, and controls while reducing redundancies in our cost base in line with our plan. We believe these investment decisions will strengthen our delivery in 2025 and beyond.

其次，在費用方面，在扣除已指導的特殊項目後，我們每季都實現了 50 億歐元的調整後成本指引。我們繼續執行我們的營運效率措施，這使我們有空間對業務成長、技術和控制進行關鍵投資，同時按照我們的計劃減少成本基礎中的冗餘。我們相信這些投資決策將增強我們在 2025 年及以後的交付能力。

Third, importantly, we continue to improve our risk profile in 2024, which did come at a cost of EUR1.7 billion across three specific litigation items.

第三，重要的是，我們將在 2024 年繼續改善我們的風險狀況，這確實在三個特定的訴訟項目中花費了 17 億歐元。

And while these items, of course, impacted our reported results, moving forward, our position to deliver returns is not only strengthened for 2025, but also for future years, particularly given the supportive market backdrop for our businesses.

雖然這些因素當然會影響我們的報告結果，但展望未來，我們提供回報的地位不僅在 2025 年會得到加強，而且在未來幾年也會得到加強，特別是考慮到我們業務的支持性市場背景。

Looking ahead, as we have continued to make conscious investments into our franchise, coupled with stickier inflation, we now expect to end 2025 with a cost income ratio of below 65%. We know we need to continue to focus on cost management in the near and medium term and we have a clear management agenda to address this. Crucially, for this year, we expect to deliver strong positive operating leverage as we increased revenues by EUR2 billion year on year while keeping adjusted costs flat.

展望未來，由於我們繼續對特許經營進行有意識的投資，再加上通貨膨脹加劇，我們預計到 2025 年底成本收入比將低於 65%。我們知道我們需要在近期和中期繼續專注於成本管理，並且我們有一個明確的管理議程來解決這個問題。至關重要的是，今年我們預計將實現強勁的正營運槓桿，因為我們的營收年增了 20 億歐元，同時保持調整後成本持平。

Fourth, on distributions. We remain committed to capital returns. And today, we are announcing a EUR750 million share buyback program in addition to a dividend per share of $0.68 in respect of 2024, which we plan to propose for approval at our Annual General Meeting. Together, this represents a total of EUR2.1 billion of capital distributions announced so far this year.

第四，關於分配。我們仍然致力於資本回報。今天，我們宣布了一項 7.5 億歐元的股票回購計劃，並在 2024 年派發每股 0.68 美元的股息，我們計劃在年度股東大會上提出該計劃以供批准。總計而言，今年迄今宣布的資本分配總額為 21 億歐元。

As we have said before, we want to maintain a prudent approach to capital management, and we will, of course, look to do more for our shareholders in line with our performance. Our strong CET1 ratio of 13.8% sets us up well for this heading into the rest of the year. And we remain committed to surpassing our total shareholder distribution target of EUR8 billion.

正如我們之前所說，我們希望保持審慎的資本管理方式，當然，我們也將根據我們的業績為股東做更多的事情。我們的 CET1 比率高達 13.8%，為我們在今年剩餘時間內取得良好成績奠定了基礎。我們仍致力於超越 80 億歐元的股東總分配目標。

To summarize, 2024 has not been easy, but it was an important year for us as we took important management actions to secure our trajectory and cement our path to a return on tangible equity above 10% for 2025. Beyond that, we have defined a clear management agenda for further developing our Global Hausbank offering and sustainably increasing returns in 2025 and in the years thereafter.

總而言之，2024 年並不輕鬆，但對我們來說卻是重要的一年，因為我們採取了重要的管理措施來確保我們的發展軌跡，並鞏固了我們在 2025 年實現 10% 以上有形權益回報率的道路。除此之外，我們還制定了明確的管理議程，以進一步發展我們的全球 Hausbank 產品並在 2025 年及以後持續提高回報。

Let's now discuss each of these points in detail starting with our operating momentum on slide 3. We increased 2024 pre-provision profit by 19% compared to 2023, if adjusted for three specific litigation items, as well as the goodwill impairment in 2023.

現在讓我們從幻燈片 3 上的營運動能開始詳細討論每一點。如果針對三個特定訴訟項目以及 2023 年的商譽減損進行調整，我們 2024 年的撥備前利潤將比 2023 年增加 19%。

The specific litigation items in 2024 comprised the Postbank takeover litigation matter; elevated provisions for Polish FX mortgages; and the derecognition of the reimbursement asset for the RusChemAlliance litigation matter, which James will elaborate on further.

2024 年的具體訴訟事項包括郵政銀行收購訴訟事項、波蘭外匯抵押貸款撥備的增加以及 RusChemAlliance 訴訟事項的償付資產的終止確認，James 將對此作進一步闡述。

Pre-provision profit remained broadly stable on a reported basis as our operating strength enabled us to absorb even large exceptional items. We have delivered sustained operating leverage of 5%. Excluding the specific litigation items in 2024 and the goodwill impairment in 2023. Growth was driven by both revenue momentum and cost discipline.

由於我們的營運實力使我們能夠吸收甚至大額的特殊項目，撥備前利潤在報告基礎上保持大致穩定。我們已實現 5% 的持續營運槓桿。不包括2024年的特定訴訟項目和2023年的商譽減損。成長是由收入成長動能和成本控制共同推動的。

Revenues grew by 4% year on year supported by our deep dedication and client engagement and around 75% came from more predictable revenue streams in Corporate Bank, Private Bank, Asset Management, and FIC financing. A well-diversified revenue mix enabled us to grow through the interest rate cycle.

由於我們高度的奉獻和客戶參與，收入同比增長了 4%，其中約 75% 來自企業銀行、私人銀行、資產管理和 FIC 融資等更可預測的收入來源。多元化的收入組合使我們能夠在利率週期中成長。

Commissions and fee income increased by 13% year on year in line with our strategy and driven by our strategic investments. Net interest income in key banking book segments and other funding outperformed our prior guidance and remained broadly stable year on year.

佣金和費用收入年增 13%，這符合我們的策略，並受到我們策略投資的推動。主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資的淨利息收入超過了我們先前的預期，並且比去年同期保持穩定。

Adjusted costs decreased 1% year on year to EUR20.4 billion or 2% to EUR20.2 billion, excluding the pre-guided real estate measures and UK bank levy true-up in the fourth quarter. Excluding these items, we delivered four quarters of adjusted cost of around EUR5 billion, in line with our plans.

調整後成本年減 1% 至 204 億歐元，若不包括預先指引的房地產措施和第四季的英國銀行徵稅調整，則下降 2% 至 202 億歐元。除去這些項目，我們四個季度的調整後成本約為 50 億歐元，符合我們的計劃。

We have made steady progress on our efficiency program. This offset conscious investments in the franchise and inflationary pressures. We have now completed measures we've delivered our expected gross savings of EUR1.85 billion, almost three-quarters of our EUR2.5 billion goal, with around EUR1.67 billion in savings already realized.

我們的效率計劃取得了穩步進展。這抵消了對特許經營權的有意識投資和通膨壓力。我們現在已經完成了預期的 18.5 億歐元總節省措施，幾乎占到 25 億歐元目標的四分之三，其中已實現約 16.7 億歐元的節省。

As part of this program, we have removed 3,500 roads, primarily reducing nonclient-facing roads, focus in high-cost locations, while recent hires have been focused on technology and controls as well as revenue-generating areas.

作為該計劃的一部分，我們拆除了 3,500 條道路，主要減少不面向客戶的道路，並專注於高成本地區，而最近的招聘則集中在技術和控制以及創收領域。

Turning to slide 4. Let us now look at the momentum we have created in each of our businesses against the goals set in 2022. At our Investor Day in March 2022, we set ambitious objectives for 2025. With 12 months to go, our business growth focused strategies are delivering strong results against these objectives.

翻到幻燈片 4。現在讓我們看看我們在各個業務中根據 2022 年設定的目標所創造的勢頭。在 2022 年 3 月的投資者日上，我們設定了 2025 年的雄心勃勃的目標。未來 12 個月內，我們以業務成長為重點的策略正在為實現這些目標取得強勁成果。

The corporate bank remains at the core of the Deutsche Bank franchise, and we have further enhanced its value proposition through a strengthening client franchise and investments in technology supported by our global network.

企業銀行仍然是德意志銀行特許經營的核心，我們透過加強客戶特許經營和投資全球網路支援的技術，進一步提升了其價值主張。

As an example, incremental deals won with multinational clients have increased by around 40% since 2022. The division outperformed its revenue growth ambition despite normalizing interest rates and delivered a return on tangible equity of 13% in 2024, 3 times its 2021 level.

例如，自 2022 年以來，與跨國客戶達成的增量交易增加了約 40%。儘管利率正常化，該部門仍超額完成了收入成長目標，2024 年有形股本回報率達到 13%，是 2021 年水準的 3 倍。

The Investment Bank is outperforming its revenue growth target and delivered an RoTE of 9% in 2024, cementing its position as a leading European investment bank. We are also particularly pleased we have outperformed the peer average for the full year as we continue to see our investments paying off.

該投資銀行的收入成長超出目標，2024 年的 RoTE 達到 9%，鞏固了其作為歐洲領先投資銀行的地位。我們也特別高興，我們的全年業績超過了同行平均水平，因為我們繼續看到我們的投資獲得回報。

The business has demonstrated sustained revenue performance through the cycle since 2021 supported by further diversifying its income stream and increasing market share in origination and advisory by around 50 basis points in 2024.

該業務自 2021 年以來在整個週期中表現出持續的收入表現，這得益於其收入來源的進一步多樣化以及在 2024 年發起和諮詢市場份額增加約 50 個基點。

In fixed income and currencies, we have built strong market share and demonstrated sustained growth in financing, which is up 12% year on year in 2024 and we achieved significant year-on-year growth of over 60% in O&A in 2024 through considerable market share increases in a growing fee pool.

在固定收益和貨幣領域，我們建立了強大的市場份額，並在融資方面表現出持續增長，到 2024 年同比增長 12%，並且透過在不斷增長的費用池中大幅提高市場份額，我們在 2024 年實現了超過 60% 的 O&A 同比增長。

Since 2021, the Private Bank created two distinct businesses to sharpen the commercial focus and to better serve clients' changing needs. We scaled up the Wealth Management franchise successfully turning around profitability in core markets while strengthening our number one positioning in Germany.

自2021年起，私人銀行創建了兩項不同的業務，以加強商業重點並更好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求。我們擴大了財富管理特許經營權，成功扭轉了核心市場的獲利能力，同時鞏固了我們在德國的領先地位。

In Personal Banking, we have launched a major efficiency transformation with a decisive review of our service model and branch footprint optimization. The business continues to leverage its leading market position with net inflows of EUR29 billion, supporting noninterest revenue growth of 5% last year, in line with our strategy.

在個人銀行業務方面，我們啟動了重大的效率轉型，對服務模式和分行佈局優化進行了果斷審查。該業務繼續利用其領先的市場地位，淨流入達 290 億歐元，支持去年非利息收入成長 5%，符合我們的策略。

Overall, the division grew revenues in line with targets since 2021. The business has made transformative efficiency gains since 2021, closing a further 125 branches in 2024, increasing the total to almost 400 closures since 2021, in addition to reducing full-time employees by a further 1,300 in 2024 alone.

總體而言，該部門自 2021 年以來的收入成長符合目標。自 2021 年以來，該業務取得了變革性的效率提升，於 2024 年又關閉了 125 家分行，使自 2021 年以來關閉的分行總數增至近 400 家，此外僅在 2024 年就進一步減少了 1,300 名全職員工。

Looking at the fourth quarter more closely, adjusted costs were down 9%, reflecting delivery of savings despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Profitability and higher returns, especially in German Personal Banking, will remain top priorities, and we expect to deliver them by a further streamlining of our branch network and the modernization of both our brands while leveraging the synergies from our unified IT environment.

更仔細地觀察第四季度，調整後的成本下降了 9%，反映出儘管通膨壓力持續存在，但仍實現了節約。獲利能力和更高的回報，特別是在德國個人銀行業務中，仍將是我們最優先考慮的事情，我們希望透過進一步精簡我們的分行網路和實現我們兩個品牌的現代化，同時利用我們統一的 IT 環境的協同效應來實現這些目標。

In short, the Private Bank continues its path to sustainably transform the business, which we believe will translate into substantially better returns which would be visible this year and beyond.

簡而言之，私人銀行將繼續走上可持續的業務轉型之路，我們相信這將轉化為今年及以後明顯更好的回報。

Asset Management, again, grew assets under management in 2024 by EUR115 billion and surpassed EUR1 trillion for the first time, boosted by net inflows of EUR42 billion into passive investments. Exceeding this mark shows the scale and competitiveness of our Asset Management division.

資產管理產業的資產管理規模在 2024 年再次成長了 1,150 億歐元，首次超過 1 兆歐元，這得益於 420 億歐元的被動投資淨流入。超過這項標準顯示了我們資產管理部門的規模和競爭力。

Overall, the business demonstrated its strength and showed increased cost efficiency, leading to an RoTE of 18% in 2024. Driven by the benefits of higher AUM levels and revenue growth initiatives already in place, we expect the compound revenue growth rate in Asset Management to turn positive in 2025 and approach its original ambition.

總體而言，該業務展現了實力並提高了成本效率，導致 2024 年的 RoTE 達到 18%。在更高 AUM 水準和現有收入成長計畫的推動下，我們預期資產管理業務的複合收入成長率將在 2025 年轉為正值，並接近其最初的目標。

On slide 5, let me now turn to the question why we feel confident in reaching our 2025 revenue growth ambitions. Since 2021, we have delivered a compound annual growth rate of 5.8%, in line with our upgraded target range. In 2025, we expect continued franchise momentum and our capital-light businesses to drive further growth supported by our investments, increasing the revenue CAGR to around 5.9%.

在第 5 張投影片上，現在讓我來回答一個問題：為什麼我們對實現 2025 年營收成長目標充滿信心。自 2021 年以來，我們的複合年增長率達到 5.8%，符合我們上調後的目標範圍。到 2025 年，我們預計特許經營勢頭將持續，而我們的輕資本業務將在投資的支持下推動進一步增長，收入複合年增長率將提高到 5.9% 左右。

We have a clear road map towards our 2025 target. In the Corporate Bank, we expect revenues to grow by around 5.5% or EUR400 million, largely from scaling of commissions and fee income predominantly in trade finance and fee-based institutional business and repricing of existing clients. Resilient net interest income will provide further support.

我們對實現 2025 年目標有著清晰的路線圖。在企業銀行方面，我們預計收入將成長約 5.5% 或 4 億歐元，主要來自佣金和費用收入的擴大（主要是貿易融資和收費機構業務）以及現有客戶的重新定價。強勁的淨利息收入將提供進一步的支持。

Investment Bank revenues are expected to grow by around 8% as we see encouraging trends in the market, good levels of corporate activity and confidence, solid financing conditions, and pent-up private equity dry powder.

由於我們看到市場令人鼓舞的趨勢、良好的企業活動和信心、穩固的融資條件以及被壓抑的私募股權資金，投資銀行的收入預計將增長約 8%。

The main growth driver is expected to be O&A with an increase in revenues of approximately EUR600 million, reflecting growth globally, but led by the US. We have positioned ourselves well to benefit from these trends and grow market share further, supported by our investments, reaching their full potential.

預計主要的成長動力是 O&A，營收將增加約 6 億歐元，反映全球的成長，但由美國引領。我們已經做好了充分的準備，可以從這些趨勢中獲益，並透過我們的投資進一步擴大市場份額，充分發揮其潛力。

We also expect FIC to show continued growth in 2025, driven by ongoing strength and further focused investments in financing. We will continue to develop our wider platform in both existing and adjacent businesses with a focus on the US and flow credit.

我們也預計，在持續強勁的成長動能和進一步集中融資投資的推動下，FIC 將在 2025 年繼續成長。我們將繼續在現有和相鄰業務中開發更廣泛的平台，重點關注美國和流量信貸。

In the Private Bank, we expect revenue growth of around EUR400 million or about 4%, driven by higher NII from continued business volume growth and the deposit hedge rollover as well as growing noninterest income, harvesting benefits from higher assets under management, and growth in investment solutions.

在私人銀行方面，我們預計收入將增長約 4 億歐元或約 4%，這得益於業務量持續增長、存款對沖展期帶來的 NII 增加以及非利息收入的增長、管理資產規模增加帶來的收益以及投資解決方案的增長。

Finally, we expect Asset Management to grow by around EUR300 million or 12.5%. We expect the business to benefit from the growth in assets under management during 2024 and a strong equity market development this year, which should boost management fees in 2025.

最後，我們預期資產管理規模將成長約 3 億歐元，即 12.5%。我們預計，該業務將受益於 2024 年管理資產的成長以及今年強勁的股票市場發展，這將提高 2025 年的管理費。

We furthermore expect continued growth in passive, including extractors and in alternatives. These drivers underline our confidence in achieving our revenue goal of around EUR32 billion in 2025 before FX benefits. At year-end FX rates, we expect this number to be around EUR32.8 billion.

此外，我們預計被動能源（包括萃取器）和替代品將持續成長。這些驅動因素凸顯了我們對實現 2025 年（扣除外匯收益）約 320 億歐元收入目標的信心。以年底外匯匯率計算，我們預計這一數字約為 328 億歐元。

Importantly, all divisions are contributing to the substantial growth from both noninterest revenues and NII, which once again reflects our well-diversified business mix. Around 75% of this growth is expected to come from more predictable revenue streams.

重要的是，所有部門都為非利息收入和NII的大幅成長做出了貢獻，這再次反映了我們多元化的業務組合。預計約 75% 的成長將來自更可預測的收入來源。

Let me now turn to costs on slide 6. In 2025, our goal is simple: deliver a significant normalization of nonoperating costs and essentially flat adjusted costs despite our ongoing investments into growth. Moving past significantly elevated litigation and other restructuring charges in 2024, we are planning with a clear reduction of EUR2.1 billion in nonoperating costs this year.

現在讓我談談幻燈片 6 上的成本問題。2025 年，我們的目標很簡單：儘管我們持續對成長進行投資，但實現非營業成本的顯著正常化，並基本上保持調整後成本的平穩。除了 2024 年大幅增加的訴訟和其他重組費用外，我們計劃今年將非營業成本大幅減少 21 億歐元。

Turning to adjusted costs. Since we presented our ambitions for 2025 at our Investor Day in 2022, we have navigated dynamically through a volatile and fast-moving environment. And this resulted in some additional costs as we choose to make investments in technology, controls, and business growth and with inflation proving to be more persistent than anticipated.

轉向調整成本。自從我們在 2022 年投資者日提出 2025 年的目標以來，我們一直在動盪和快速變化的環境中積極探索。由於我們選擇在技術、控制和業務成長方面進行投資，而且通貨膨脹比預期的更持久，因此這導致了一些額外的成本。

In respect of the additional investments, we have positioned the bank for sustainable growth in 2025 and beyond by investing into two key areas. Firstly, growing our franchise beyond our original revenue ambition to better serve our clients and deliver higher rewards for shareholders.

在額外投資方面，我們透過投資兩個關鍵領域，為銀行在 2025 年及以後的永續成長做好準備。首先，擴大我們的特許經營權，超越我們最初的收入目標，以便更好地服務我們的客戶並為股東帶來更高的回報。

Secondly, expanding our initially planned mandatory and strategic investments into technology controls and regulatory remediation. In 2024, we hired 1,300 technology specialists and added 400 targeted revenue-generating roads supporting long-term cost improvements and growth.

其次，擴大我們最初計劃的對技術控制和監管補救的強制性和戰略投資。2024 年，我們聘請了 1,300 名技術專家，並增加了 400 條有針對性的創收道路，以支持長期成本改善和成長。

In 2024 alone, we also invested a further EUR1.2 billion into controls, taking the total since 2019 to more than EUR6.5 billion. Some of these additional expenses will stay with us this year. However, we expect to offset much of the impact through our cost measures in line with our plan, which we expect to yield further benefits in 2025 and beyond.

光是 2024 年，我們還在控制權上額外投資了 12 億歐元，使 2019 年以來的投資總額超過 65 億歐元。其中一些額外開支我們今年仍會保留。然而，我們預計透過按照計劃採取的成本措施來抵消大部分影響，並預計這將在 2025 年及以後產生進一步的效益。

Our optimization initiatives in Germany are expected to generate savings of close to EUR200 million. Investments to reduce the complexity of our organization by improving technology and optimizing the workforce across infrastructure are expected to deliver a further EUR300 million.

我們在德國的優化措施預計將節省近2億歐元。透過改善技術和優化基礎設施的勞動力來降低我們組織的複雜性的投資預計將帶來進一步的 3 億歐元。

An automization of processes alongside better alignment of our front-to-back setup should deliver another EUR200 million. Our initiatives include the previously announced closure of additional branches in 2025. The implementation of new branch formats as well as decommissioning of further applications or moving them to the cloud.

流程的自動化以及前後設置的更好協調將帶來另外 2 億歐元的收入。我們的措施包括先前宣布的 2025 年關閉更多分公司。實施新的分支格式以及停用更多應用程式或將其遷移到雲端。

The net effect is that we expect to hold our adjusted cost base flat year on year while reducing nonoperating costs significantly. James will detail the year-on-year cost work later. This, combined with the anticipated revenue growth of EUR2 billion we just discussed, will create substantial operating leverage.

最終結果是，我們預期調整後的成本基數將比去年同期持平，同時大幅降低非營業成本。詹姆斯稍後會詳細介紹同比成本工作。與我們剛剛討論的20億歐元的預期收入成長相結合，這將創造巨大的營運槓桿。

As a result, we now target a cost income ratio of below 65% this year, marginally higher than our original target, though this will further support growth and business momentum in and beyond 2025. As I said earlier, this does not compromise delivery of our greater than 10% RoTE target or our plans for capital distributions.

因此，我們今年的成本收入比目標定為 65% 以下，略高於我們最初的目標，但這將進一步支持 2025 年及以後的成長和業務發展勢頭。正如我之前所說，這並不影響我們實現超過 10% 的 RoTE 目標或我們的資本分配計劃。

Let me now turn to this, starting with the path to our return on tangible equity target on slide 7. We remain on a clear path to achieve our RoTE target of above 10% and in 2025 driven by focused execution across all three delivery pillars of our Global Hausbank strategy.

現在讓我來談談這個問題，先從投影片 7 上的有形股權報酬目標的路徑開始。我們仍朝著實現 10% 以上的 RoTE 目標邁進，並在 2025 年透過重點執行全球 Hausbank 策略的所有三個交付支柱來推動這一目標。

As you saw, we have a business-by-business road map to grow revenues to around EUR32 billion in 2025, in line with our target growth of 5.5% to 6.5%. Operational efficiencies play a key role in keeping adjusted costs flat in 2025 and thereby reducing total noninterest expenses as nonoperating costs normalize. Capital efficiencies have delivered cumulative RWA equivalent reductions of EUR24 billion, close to our end 2025 goal of EUR25 billion to EUR30 billion.

正如您所看到的，我們有一個逐項業務的路線圖，旨在到 2025 年將收入增長到 320 億歐元左右，與我們 5.5% 至 6.5% 的目標增長一致。營運效率對於維持 2025 年調整後成本持平，從而隨著非營運成本正常化而減少總非利息支出起著關鍵作用。資本效率已使 RWA 當量累積減少 240 億歐元，接近我們 2025 年底 250 億歐元至 300 億歐元的目標。

In the fourth quarter alone, we delivered EUR2 billion of RWA equivalent reductions driven by data and process improvements. We are confident we will reach the upper end of our target range by year-end 2025 through further securitizations and data and process improvements.

僅在第四季度，我們就透過數據和流程改進實現了 20 億歐元的 RWA 當量削減。我們有信心，透過進一步的證券化以及數據和流程改進，到 2025 年底我們將達到目標範圍的上限。

Delivering on these pillars gives us a clear path to an RoTE about 10% in 2025. The non-repeat of significant litigation items in 2024 gives us a starting point of an adjusted RoTE above 7%. Firstly, reaching around EUR32 billion revenue goal is expected to add more than two percentage points to our 2025 RoTE.

實現這些支柱將為我們在 2025 年實現約 10% 的 RoTE 提供清晰的道路。2024 年重大訴訟項目不再重演，為我們調整後的 RoTE 提供了一個超過 7% 的起點。首先，預計實現約 320 億歐元的收入目標將使我們 2025 年的 RoTE 增加兩個百分點以上。

Around 20% of this growth expected to come from an increase in net interest income by roughly EUR400 million, primarily due to the rollover of hedges. Another 40%, or roughly EUR800 million, should come from higher noninterest revenues from more predictable income streams, including from scaling actions and monetizing client relationships in the corporate bank or the spillover effect from higher AUM levels in asset management and private banks. The remaining revenue increase is expected to come primarily from market share expansion in a growing fee pool in O&A.

預計其中約 20% 的成長將來自淨利息收入約 4 億歐元的增加，這主要歸功於對沖的展期。另外 40%（約 8 億歐元）應來自更可預測的收入流帶來的更高的非利息收入，包括企業銀行的擴大規模行動和貨幣化客戶關係，或資產管理和私人銀行更高 AUM 水平的溢出效應。預計剩餘的收入成長將主要來自於營運和營運費用池不斷增長的市場份額的擴大。

From a regional perspective, we expect increasing revenues in the Americas, supported by an improving backdrop and reflected our targeted investments while further growth is expected to come from Asia and the Middle East as well as Germany.

從區域角度來看，我們預計美洲的收入將會成長，這得益於不斷改善的背景和我們有針對性的投資，而進一步的成長預計來自亞洲、中東和德國。

Secondly, we expect an additional contribution of around 50 basis points from the reduction in noninterest expenses we just discussed. Together, this would bring us already to our targeted RoTE level.

其次，我們預期剛才討論的非利息支出減少將帶來約 50 個基點的額外貢獻。總之，這將使我們達到目標 RoTE 水準。

And finally, we expect a contribution of around 40 basis points from the reduction of credit loss provisions in 2025 towards more normalized levels, in line with our guidance with our third-quarter results. All in all, we see a clear path to achieving our RoTE target of above 10%.

最後，我們預計，2025 年信貸損失準備金的減少將為實現更正常化的水平貢獻約 40 個基點，這與我們對第三季業績的預期一致。總而言之，我們看到了實現 10% 以上 RoTE 目標的明確途徑。

Let me now discuss the implications for capital distributions. The value we have created for our shareholders is visible in the growth intangible book value per share by more than 20% since 2021 to almost EUR30. This was driven by strong organic capital generation and greater capital efficiency which supported both rising shareholder distributions and business growth. We have received regulatory approval for a share buyback of EUR750 million.

現在讓我討論一下對資本分配的影響。我們為股東創造的價值體現在每股無形帳面價值自 2021 年以來成長了 20% 以上，達到近 30 歐元。這是由強勁的有機資本產生和更高的資本效率推動的，這支持了股東分配的增加和業務的成長。我們已獲得監管機構批准回購7.5億歐元的股票。

Additionally, and as guided, we plan to propose a dividend per share of $0.68 for 2024 at our upcoming Annual General Meeting in May, amounting to a distribution of around EUR1.3 billion. Together, these initiatives result in shareholder distributions of around EUR2.1 billion announced so far in 2025.

此外，按照指導，我們計劃在 5 月即將召開的年度股東大會上提議派發 2024 年每股 0.68 美元的股息，總額約為 13 億歐元。這些舉措加在一起，使得 2025 年迄今已宣布的股東分配金額達到約 21 億歐元。

The announced distributions in 2024 would bring cumulative capital return to around EUR5.4 billion since 2022, in line with our promise back in July 2019 when we announced our Compete to Win strategy. Looking ahead, our guidance for a dividend of EUR1 per share in respect of financial year 2025 would equal roughly EUR1.9 billion, with net modest additional share buybacks this year or next year would be sufficient to get our EUR8 billion target.

2024 年宣布的分配將使自 2022 年以來累計資本回報達到約 54 億歐元，這符合我們在 2019 年 7 月宣布「競爭取勝」策略時所做的承諾。展望未來，我們預計 2025 財年每股股息為 1 歐元，相當於約 19 億歐元，如果今年或明年進行適度的額外股票回購，就足以實現我們 80 億歐元的目標。

However, we are committed to surpassing this target as we have said before, and it remains our priority to reward our shareholders in line with our performance, and we are confident that we will continue to deliver rising distributions in the coming years.

然而，正如我們之前所說，我們致力於超越這一目標，我們的首要任務仍然是根據我們的業績回報我們的股東，我們有信心在未來幾年繼續實現不斷增長的分配。

Before I hand over to James, let me give you a brief outlook on our next phase on slide 9. With the end of 2024, the foundation of the Global Hausbank has been laid successfully.

在將時間交給詹姆斯之前，請允許我在第 9 張投影片上簡要介紹我們的下一階段。隨著2024年的結束，全球房屋銀行的基礎已經成功奠定。

And as you heard, we are set to deliver the return target we have set ourselves for this year, supported by the momentum and operating strength of our franchise. And of course, the management team also looks beyond 2025 towards our longer-term ambitions, and we are committed to step up.

正如您所聽到的，在我們特許經營的勢頭和營運實力的支持下，我們將實現今年設定的回報目標。當然，管理團隊也將目光放長遠，放眼 2025 年以後，實現我們的長期目標，我們致力於進一步發展。

We are already implementing measures today to elevate Deutsche Bank's performance beyond 2025, which will make us a more profitable bank. This focuses on client work, our own operations, and the way we work and lead. In short, we want to be even more dedicated to our clients' needs while continuing to embed our clear purpose in our daily activities. This will drive further revenue growth.

我們今天已開始採取措施，提升德意志銀行 2025 年以後的業績，這將使我們成為一家盈利能力更強的銀行。這主要關注客戶工作、我們自己的營運以及我們的工作和領導方式。簡而言之，我們希望更加致力於滿足客戶的需求，同時繼續將我們明確的目標融入我們的日常活動中。這將推動進一步的收入成長。

We are determined to make this bank more efficient, and that means changing how we do things. It starts with a simpler organizational setup and a smaller workforce and it requires to become even more technology-driven, which will also enhance client experience. We will put full focus on the productive allocation of capital to improve shareholder value and further balance out our earnings profile. In the end, we aim to become a much more profitable bank overall than our 2025 RoTE target.

我們決心讓這家銀行更有效率，這意味著改變我們的做事方式。它從更簡單的組織設置和更少的勞動力開始，並需要變得更加技術驅動，這也將增強客戶體驗。我們將全力關注資本的生產性配置，以提高股東價值並進一步平衡我們的獲利狀況。最終，我們的目標是成為一家獲利能力遠超 2025 年 RoTE 目標的銀行。

Our management agenda for 2025 and beyond focuses on three key points: Growing value generation; reengineering our target operating model; and stronger leadership. Firstly, we aim to further grow value generation for our shareholders by sharpening our focus on capital allocation and RWA optimization at both business and client level to boost returns.

我們 2025 年及以後的管理議程重點在於三個關鍵點：增加價值創造；重新設計我們的目標營運模式；以及加強領導力。首先，我們旨在透過在業務和客戶層面加強對資本配置和風險加權資產優化的關注來提高回報，從而進一步為股東創造價值。

We see tremendous potential from further improving resource productivity across the portfolio via repricing and reallocating capital to high-return franchises, supporting further revenue growth. We plan to drive higher resource productivity through capital light originations in line with our strategy and accelerated asset rotation.

我們看到，透過重新定價和重新分配資本到高回報特許經營權，進一步提高整個投資組合的資源生產力具有巨大的潛力，從而支持進一步的收入成長。我們計劃根據我們的策略和加速資產週轉，透過輕資本發起來提高資源生產力。

We aim to boost the profitability of lower-return business through front-to-back efficiency improvements and be disciplined in redeploying capital elsewhere, including making exits, if necessary. We have already started these reviews in some lending portfolios such as mortgages and are seeing benefits of these choices.

我們的目標是透過從前到後的效率改進來提高低迴報業務的獲利能力，並嚴格地將資本重新部署到其他地方，包括在必要時退出。我們已經對抵押貸款等一些貸款組合進行了審查，並看到了這些選擇帶來的好處。

Secondly, we plan to achieve the next phase of operational efficiencies beyond our EUR2.5 billion goal by reengineering our target operating model. Our clear ambition is to operate the bank with a lower head count, and we aim to run a much leaner platform as our investments in technology, automation, and controls mature.

其次，我們計劃透過重新設計目標營運模式，實現超越 25 億歐元目標的下一階段營運效率。我們的明確目標是以更少的員工人數來營運銀行，隨著我們在技術、自動化和控制方面的投資日趨成熟，我們的目標是經營一個更精簡的平台。

We are tackling inefficiencies by giving business leaders more control over their cost base, coupled with further front-to-end streamlining of processes. We plan to actively reduce management layers and roads and integrate teams as part of our workforce optimization initiatives, in particular, scrutinizing those areas where we do not see the required efficiency improvement.

我們透過讓企業領導者更好地控製成本基礎，並進一步簡化流程來解決效率低下的問題。我們計劃積極減少管理層級和道路，並整合團隊，作為我們勞動力優化措施的一部分，特別是仔細審查那些我們沒有看到所需效率改進的領域。

Thirdly, our management agenda emphasizes strengthening risk management and accountability and evolving our culture through a purpose-led framework we call, This is Deutsche Bank. With our investments, we are well positioned to grow the Global Hausbank model make it more efficient and generate more capital for deployment in the business and shareholder distributions.

第三，我們的管理議程強調加強風險管理和問責制，並透過我們稱之為「這就是德意志銀行」的目標主導框架來發展我們的文化。透過我們的投資，我們有能力發展全球 Hausbank 模式，使其更有效率，並為業務和股東分配產生更多資本。

Our management agenda provides significant scope to further improve our return profile and deliver sustainably growing earnings beyond 2025, unlocking the full potential of this bank. We will provide you with more details on our aspiration and actions beyond 2025 over the course of this year, but our immediate focus remains on demonstrating disciplined execution.

我們的管理議程提供了巨大的空間，以進一步改善我們的回報狀況並在 2025 年以後實現可持續增長的收益，從而釋放該銀行的全部潛力。我們將在今年向您提供有關我們 2025 年以後的願望和行動的更多詳細信息，但我們當前的重點仍然是展示嚴格的執行力。

With that, let me hand over to James.

說完這些，讓我把麥克風交給詹姆斯。

Thank you, Christian, and good morning. As usual, let me start with a few key performance indicators on slide 11. Notwithstanding the items in the fourth quarter that improve our risk profile, we maintained a level of resiliency we could not have shown a few years back, underscoring the successful transformation to date.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂安，早安。像往常一樣，讓我從第 11 張投影片上的幾個關鍵績效指標開始。儘管第四季度的一些項目改善了我們的風險狀況，但我們仍然保持了幾年前無法達到的彈性水平，凸顯了迄今為止的成功轉型。

Our capital position remained robust with the CET1 ratio at 13.8% at year-end despite absorbing the specific litigation items throughout the year and the capital deduction for the EUR750 million share buyback announced today. Our liquidity metrics remain sound. The liquidity coverage ratio was 131%, in line with our target and the net stable funding ratio was 121% at the upper end of our target range.

儘管全年吸收了特定的訴訟項目以及今天宣布的 7.5 億歐元股票回購的資本扣除，我們的資本狀況仍然保持強勁，年底的 CET1 比率為 13.8%。我們的流動性指標依然穩健。流動性覆蓋率為131%，符合我們的目標，淨穩定資金率為121%，處於我們目標範圍的上限。

Let me now turn to the fourth quarter highlights on slide 12. Group revenues were EUR7.2 billion, up 8% on the prior year quarter. Provision for credit losses was EUR420 million, equivalent to 35 basis points of average loans, down EUR67 million year on year. Noninterest expenses were EUR6.2 billion, up 14%, reflecting exceptional nonoperating and adjusted cost items.

現在讓我翻到第 12 張投影片，介紹第四季的亮點。集團營收為 72 億歐元，比去年同期成長 8%。信貸損失準備金為4.2億歐元，相當於平均貸款35個基點，較去年同期減少0.67億歐元。非利息支出為 62 億歐元，成長 14%，反映了特殊非營業項目和調整後成本項目。

Nonoperating items were EUR945 million in the quarter, including net litigation charges of EUR659 million and restructuring and severance charges of EUR286 million. Adjusted costs were EUR5.3 billion, including charges for optimizing the bank's own real estate footprint of EUR100 million as well as a true-up for bank levies in the UK of EUR134 million. And despite the exceptional cost items, we generated a profit before tax of EUR583 million and a net profit of EUR337 million.

本季非營業項目為 9.45 億歐元，其中包括 6.59 億歐元的淨訴訟費用以及 2.86 億歐元的重組和遣散費用。調整後的成本為 53 億歐元，其中包括優化銀行自身房地產足跡的費用 1 億歐元以及英國銀行徵稅的補償費用 1.34 億歐元。儘管有特殊成本項目，我們仍然實現了 5.83 億歐元的稅前利潤和 3.37 億歐元的淨利潤。

Our tax rate in the fourth quarter came in at 42%. Excluding the aforementioned litigation matters, the tax rate would have been 28%. We expect the 2025 full year tax rate to range between 28% and 29%. In the fourth quarter, diluted earnings per share was $0.15, and tangible book value per share was EUR29.90, up 5% year on year.

我們第四季的稅率為42%。若不計入上述訴訟事項，稅率則為28%。我們預計 2025 年全年稅率將在 28% 至 29% 之間。第四季，每股攤薄收益為0.15美元，每股有形帳面價值為29.90歐元，較去年同期成長5%。

Let me know turn to some of the drivers of these results and start with a review of our net interest income on slide 13. NII across key banking book segments and other funding was strong at EUR3.3 billion, up sequentially and broadly flat on the prior year quarter.

讓我了解這些結果的一些驅動因素，並從第 13 張投影片上對我們的淨利息收入的回顧開始。主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資的NII表現強勁，達到33億歐元，較上季成長，與去年同期大致持平。

Compared to the third quarter, slightly higher deposit volumes, in particular, overnight deposits offset the expected beta conversions in the corporate bank. Private Bank NII was up sequentially as we guided before, and FIC financing continued to grow its loan portfolio with a corresponding increase in quarterly revenues.

與第三季相比，存款量略有增加，尤其是隔夜存款，抵消了企業銀行預期的貝塔轉換率。私人銀行 NII 按照我們先前的指引連續上升，FIC 融資持續增加其貸款組合，季度收入相應增加。

With that, let me turn to the full-year NII trends and the outlook for 2025 on the next page. Given the stronger NII in the fourth quarter, we outperformed our prior 2024 full-year guidance of EUR13.1 billion, reporting EUR13.3 billion across our key banking book segments and other funding. This is about EUR100 million higher than 2023, reflecting the resilience of our NII even during an environment of falling rates and beta convergence.

接下來，我將在下一頁討論全年 NII 趨勢和 2025 年的展望。鑑於第四季度 NII 表現強勁，我們的業績超出了先前預測的 2024 年全年 131 億歐元，報告顯示我們的主要銀行帳簿部門和其他融資總額為 133 億歐元。這比 2023 年高出約 1 億歐元，反映出即使在利率下降和貝塔收斂的環境下，我們的 NII 仍具有韌性。

For 2025, we expect NII yet again to increase to around EUR13.6 billion, a sequential increase of around EUR400 million. This is in line with our guidance provided last quarter but reflective of the outperformance in the fourth quarter. The key drivers of the rollover effect from our hedges supported by portfolio growth in the Private Bank, Corporate Bank, and FIC financing.

到 2025 年，我們預計 NII 將再次增加至約 136 億歐元，較上季增加約 4 億歐元。這與我們上個季度提供的指導一致，但反映了第四季度的優異表現。我們的對沖滾動效應的主要驅動因素是私人銀行、企業銀行和 FIC 融資的投資組合成長。

As a reminder, our hedge portfolio stabilizes our income by extending the tenor of interest rate risk, but it also protects us against a drop in interest rates. We provide further details in the appendix on slide 38.

提醒一下，我們的對沖投資組合透過延長利率風險期限來穩定我們的收入，但它也能保護我們免受利率下降的影響。我們在第 38 張投影片的附錄中提供了進一步的詳細資訊。

Based on forward rates at the end of December, we expect the income from the hedge book to grow by several hundred million euros each year as we roll maturing hedges. In current rate conditions, we are more sensitive to the long-term rate development and are less sensitive to short-term movements in policy rates.

根據 12 月底的遠期利率，我們預計，隨著對沖到期，對沖帳簿的收入將每年增長數億歐元。在目前利率條件下，我們對長期利率發展較為敏感，而對政策利率的短期變動較不敏感。

Turning to slide 15, Adjusted costs were EUR0.3 billion for the quarter. We have seen lower costs across all categories versus the prior year quarter and reduced adjusted costs, excluding bank levies by 2% or EUR118 million. Bank levies were driven by the true-up in the UK of EUR134 million.

翻到第 15 張投影片，本季調整後成本為 3 億歐元。與去年同期相比，所有類別的成本均有所下降，且調整後成本（不包括銀行費用）減少了 2% 或 1.18 億歐元。銀行稅的徵收主要由英國 1.34 億歐元的調整所引起。

In line with our guidance in earlier quarters, we managed adjusted costs, excluding bank levies, closer to EUR4.9 billion if adjusted for EUR100 million from optimizing our own real estate footprint and the other unfavorable impact from exchange movements of around EUR60 million. We have included further details in the appendix on slide 29.

按照我們前幾季的指導，我們管理的調整後成本（不包括銀行費用）接近 49 億歐元，其中透過優化我們自己的房地產佈局調整了 1 億歐元，而匯率變動帶來的其他不利影響約為 6000 萬歐元。我們在第 29 張投影片的附錄中提供了進一步的詳細資訊。

On a full-year basis, adjusted costs, excluding bank levies, increased by around EUR100 million on a constant FX basis, as savings from streamlining our IT platform and lower spend for professional services were offset by higher costs for compensation and benefits, driven by rate growth, higher performance-related compensation, and the impact from increased internal workforce.

從全年來看，調整後的成本（不包括銀行手續費）按固定匯率計算增加了約 1 億歐元，因為精簡 IT 平台和降低專業服務支出所節省的成本被薪酬和福利成本的增加所抵消，而薪酬和福利成本的增加是由於費率增長、績效相關薪酬增加以及內部員工增加的影響。

With that, let me turn to our cost guidance for 2025 on slide 16. As Christian said earlier, a lot has happened since we embarked on our Global Hausbank strategy in 2022. And while we have taken opportunities to not only create a more resilient franchise, but also to ensure that we are better positioned for sustainable growth, there have also been headwinds, which we have not been able to fully offset.

接下來，請允許我轉到第 16 張投影片上關於 2025 年成本的指導。正如克里斯蒂安之前所說，自 2022 年我們開始實施全球 Hausbank 策略以來發生了很多事情。儘管我們抓住機遇，不僅打造了更具彈性的特許經營權，而且確保我們能夠更好地實現可持續增長，但也存在一些我們無法完全抵消的阻力。

Noninterest expenses in 2024 included a number of specific items, which are either nonrecurring in nature or aimed at improving our risk profile and supporting target delivery in 2025. Total nonoperating costs were EUR2.6 billion, driven by litigation charges for three specific items, which amounted to EUR1.7 billion. Firstly, the Postbank takeover litigation matter had a full-year net impact of EUR906 million, reflecting the initial provision and the settlement agreements we entered into in the third quarter.

2024 年的非利息支出包括一些特定項目，這些項目要么是非經常性的，要么旨在改善我們的風險狀況並支持 2025 年的目標實現。總非營業成本為 26 億歐元，其中三個具體項目的訴訟費用達 17 億歐元。首先，郵政銀行收購訴訟事件對全年的淨影響為 9.06 億歐元，反映了初步撥備和我們在第三季達成的和解協議。

Secondly, the industry-wide FX mortgage matter in Poland resulted in additional provisions of EUR329 million in the fourth quarter to reflect our updated estimation of the impact of developments in the market. The total impact for the year was EUR500 million.

其次，波蘭全行業的外匯抵押貸款問題導致第四季度額外提列了3.29億歐元，以反映我們對市場發展影響的最新估計。全年總影響為5億歐元。

And lastly, the RusChemAlliance litigation matter, which had an impact of EUR262 million in the fourth quarter and affected the corporate bank. Recent developments led to the derecognition of a reimbursement asset as a recovery of the claim through an indemnification obligation could no longer be assessed as virtually certain. However, we believe we are in possession of a valid reimbursement claim and will vigorously assert our position.

最後，RusChemAlliance 訴訟事件對第四季度產生了 2.62 億歐元的影響，並影響了企業銀行。最近的發展導致償付資產被終止確認，因為透過賠償義務收回索賠不再被評估為幾乎確定。然而，我們相信我們擁有有效的報銷要求，並將堅決維護我們的立場。

Other litigation charges of EUR366 million were broad-based across a number of smaller items. Additionally, restructuring and severance charges were elevated in the year at around EUR530 million, slightly higher than the EUR400 million we initially expected for the year and included additional actions taken during the fourth quarter.

其他訴訟費用為 3.66 億歐元，涉及多項較小項目。此外，今年的重組和遣散費用增加至約 5.3 億歐元，略高於我們最初預期的 4 億歐元，其中包括第四季度採取的額外行動。

We made further progress, particularly in the Private Bank, to support our strategic transformation, which is aimed at rationalizing our branch footprint in Germany, while improving the access to advisory solutions for our retail clients.

我們取得了進一步的進展，特別是在私人銀行領域，以支持我們的策略轉型，旨在合理化我們在德國的分行佈局，同時改善我們的零售客戶獲得諮詢解決方案的途徑。

Assuming a normalization of overall nonoperating costs, the no-ninterest expense step off for 2025 would have been EUR20.9 billion. For 2025, we expect overall adjusted costs to remain flat year on year at around EUR20.3 billion (sic, see presentation slide16, "EUR20.8 billion"), which translates to around EUR20.7 billion at year-end FX rates.

假設整體非營業成本正常化，2025 年的非利息支出將達到 209 億歐元。到 2025 年，我們預計整體調整成本將同比持平，約為 203 億歐元（原文如此，請參閱簡報投影片 16，「208 億歐元」），以年底外匯匯率計算約為 207 億歐元。

This is higher relative to our prior guidance, mainly driven by additional investments and business growth opportunities that we identified during our last planning cycle. These investments, particularly into our Corporate Bank and Investment Bank businesses, support our targeted revenue growth this year and position us for further growth beyond.

這比我們之前的指導要高，主要是由於我們在上一個規劃週期中發現的額外投資和業務成長機會。這些投資，特別是對我們的企業銀行和投資銀行業務的投資，支持了我們今年的目標收入成長，並為我們未來的進一步成長奠定了基礎。

We also see continued demand for control and remediation investments to ensure the bank fulfills all of its regulatory obligations and expectations. In line with our original target, nonoperating costs are expected to materially reduce to around EUR400 million in 2025 as litigation and restructuring and severance charges normalize. As a result, noninterest expenses in 2025 are expected to be around EUR20.8 billion, resulting in a full year cost-income ratio of below 65%, but delivering a significant implied operating leverage of 16%.

我們也看到對控制和補救投資的持續需求，以確保銀行履行其所有監管義務和期望。根據我們最初的目標，隨著訴訟、重組和遣散費用的正常化，預計到 2025 年非營業成本將大幅減少至約 4 億歐元。因此，預計 2025 年非利息支出約為 208 億歐元，全年成本收入比將低於 65%，但隱含經營槓桿將達到 16%。

The investments leading to a higher cost base will also support toward further operating leverage beyond 2025. In short, although the reported numbers for 2024 are higher than originally planned, Christian and I are encouraged regarding our trajectory going into 2025.

導致成本基礎增加的投資也將支持 2025 年以後進一步提高營運槓桿。簡而言之，儘管 2024 年的報告數字高於原計劃，但 Christian 和我對我們進入 2025 年的發展軌跡感到鼓舞。

Let us now turn to provision for credit losses on slide 17. In line with the guidance provided in October, full-year provisions stood at EUR1.8 billion, equivalent to 38 basis points of average loans. Provisions were impacted by specific headwinds, including transitional effects from the Postbank integration, which continue to taper off; two relatively fast-paced larger corporate events impacting provisions at a level unusual compared to historical standards and which were materially hedged; as well as a cyclically higher level of commercial real estate provisions, which we expect to decrease on a full-year basis in 2025.

現在讓我們來看看投影片 17 上的信貸損失準備金。根據10月提供的指導，全年撥備為18億歐元，相當於平均貸款的38個基點。撥備受到特定不利因素的影響，包括郵政銀行整合的過渡效應（該效應持續減弱）；兩個相對較快節奏的大型企業事件對撥備的影響達到與歷史標準相比異常的水平，並且進行了實質性對沖；以及商業房地產撥備的周期性較高水平，我們預計到 2025 年全年撥備水平將下降。

You will find the full year update on transitory headwinds on slide 42 of the appendix. When looking at the fourth quarter, provision for credit losses was EUR420 million or 35 basis points of average loans. As guided, the sequential decrease in provisions of EUR74 million was due to a reduction of Stage 3 provisions as the Corporate Bank benefited from a larger recovery on a legacy workout situation. Investment Bank provisions were lower, benefiting from a further small reduction of provisioning levels in CRE. During the fourth quarter, the bank completed the loan portfolio sale in the US.

您可以在附錄的第 42 張投影片上找到有關暫時性逆風的全年更新資訊。從第四季來看，信貸損失準備金為 4.2 億歐元，佔平均貸款的 35 個基點。根據指引，撥備連續減少 7,400 萬歐元，是由於企業銀行受益於遺留債務重組情況的更大復甦，導致第三階段撥備減少。投資銀行撥備較低，受益於商業不動產撥備水準的進一步小幅降低。第四季度，該行完成了在美國的貸款組合出售。

Stage 3 provisions decreased sequentially to EUR415 million. Provisions were mainly driven by the Private Bank, which included impact from a small number of legacy cases in Wealth Management as well as the investment bank where CRE remained the main driver. Stage 1 and 2 provisions were negligible as various portfolio effects were offset by slightly improved macroeconomic forecasts and overall recalibrations -- overlay recalibrations in the fourth quarter.

第三階段撥備季減至 4.15 億歐元。撥備主要由私人銀行推動，其中包括財富管理中少數遺留案例的影響，以及企業房地產仍然是主要驅動力的投資銀行。第一階段和第二階段的準備金微不足道，因為各種投資組合效應被略微改善的宏觀經濟預測和整體重新調整（第四季度的疊加重新調整）所抵消。

Before we move on, a few remarks on asset quality. We maintained tight underwriting standards and continue to conservatively manage our loan book, including single-name concentration risks through comprehensive hedging programs with a total notional volume of hedges standing at EUR42 billion.

在我們繼續之前，先對資產品質談幾點看法。我們維持了嚴格的承保標準，並繼續保守地管理我們的貸款帳簿，包括透過綜合對沖計劃管理單一名稱集中風險，對沖總名義量為 420 億歐元。

Our regular and comprehensive portfolio reviews show that overall credit quality remains stable and forward-looking indicators such as rating migration and trends in our noninvestment-grade portfolio as well as watch list ratios do not suggest a noteworthy deterioration in asset quality. We also see broadly stable developments in our domestic market as outlined on slide 45 of the appendix, and we are carefully monitoring the developments surrounding it.

我們定期進行的全面投資組合審查表明，整體信貸品質保持穩定，而評級遷移和非投資級投資組合趨勢以及觀察名單比率等前瞻性指標並未表明資產品質顯著惡化。我們也看到國內市場整體穩定發展，如附錄第 45 張投影片所述，我們正在密切關注周圍的發展。

With that, let me turn to capital on slide 18. Our fourth quarter common equity Tier 1 ratio came in at 13.8%. CET1 capital decreased primarily reflecting the deduction of the EUR750 million share buyback from excess capital. As expected, market risk RWA decreased driven by SBAR and incremental risk charge from careful positioning into year-end.

接下來，請容許我轉到第 18 張投影片討論資本問題。我們第四季的普通股一級資本比率為 13.8%。普通一級資本減少主要反映了從超額資本中扣除了 7.5 億歐元的股票回購。正如預期的那樣，受 SBAR 和年底謹慎定位帶來的增量風險費用的推動，市場風險 RWA 有所下降。

The marginal increase in credit risk was driven by model changes, largely offset by reductions from capital efficiency measures. With respect to the CRR3 go-live effective January 1, 2025, our pro forma CET1 ratio was 13.9%, around 5 basis points above our ratio for year-end 2024.

信用風險的邊際增加是由模型變化引起的，但很大程度上被資本效率措施的減少所抵消。對於 2025 年 1 月 1 日生效的 CRR3，我們的預期 CET1 比率為 13.9%，比 2024 年底的比率高出約 5 個基點。

However, the CRR3 go-live will also lead to around EUR5 billion of RWA equivalent impact from operational risk to come in the first quarter. Hence, the total impact of CRR3 is a CET1 ratio burden of around 15 basis points, consistent with prior guidance.

然而，CRR3 的上線也將導致第一季產生約 50 億歐元的 RWA 等值營運風險影響。因此，CRR3 的總體影響是 CET1 比率負擔約為 15 個基點，與先前的指導一致。

At the end of the fourth quarter, our leverage ratio stood at 4.6%, flat sequentially as the benefit from additional Tier 1 capital issuance in the quarter was offset by the CET1 deduction for the EUR750 million share buyback announced today and FX effects. With regard to bail-in ratios, we continue to operate with significant buffers over all requirements. In short, our capital position remains strong and already reflects our approved share buyback.

在第四季末，我們的槓桿率為 4.6%，與上一季持平，因為本季額外一級資本發行帶來的收益被今天宣布的 7.5 億歐元股票回購的 CET1 扣除額以及外匯影響所抵消。關於救助比率，我們將繼續對所有要求進行顯著緩衝。簡而言之，我們的資本狀況依然強勁，並且已經反映了我們批准的股票回購。

And with that, let us turn to performance in our businesses, starting with the Corporate Bank on slide 20. Corporate Bank revenues in the fourth quarter were EUR1.9 billion, 1% higher sequentially driven by growth in deposit revenues from interest hedging and higher volumes offsetting ongoing margin normalization.

接下來，讓我們來看看我們的業務表現，從投影片 20 上的企業銀行開始。第四季度企業銀行收入為 19 億歐元，比上一季增長 1%，這得益於利息對沖帶來的存款收入增長以及交易量的增加抵消了持續的保證金正常化。

In 2024, we have made good progress on our growth initiatives to offset the normalization of deposit revenues by further accelerating noninterest revenue growth with 5% growth in commissions and fee income across all regions and a particularly strong contribution from our trade finance business.

2024 年，我們的成長計畫取得了良好進展，透過進一步加速非利息收入成長來抵銷存款收入的正常化，所有地區的佣金和費用收入均成長 5%，其中貿易融資業務的貢獻尤為強勁。

The deposit base remains strong throughout the entire year as deposits increased by EUR23 billion year on year, driven by higher site deposits in corporate treasury services and favorable FX movements. Provision for credit losses stood at EUR23 million, significantly lower driven by a larger recovery.

全年存款基礎保持強勁，受企業財務服務現場存款增加和有利的外匯走勢推動，存款年增 230 億歐元。信貸損失準備金為 2,300 萬歐元，由於復甦規模較大而大幅下降。

Noninterest expenses were higher, driven by the RusChemAlliance litigation matter while adjusted costs decreased by 6% year on year, driven by lower direct costs and internal service cost allocations. This resulted in a post-tax return on tangible equity of 7.1% and a cost income ratio of 81%.

受 RusChemAlliance 訴訟事件的影響，非利息支出增加，而調整後成本較去年同期下降 6%，原因是直接成本和內部服務成本分配減少。這使得有形資產的稅後報酬率達到 7.1%，成本收入比達到 81%。

I will now turn to the Investment Bank on slide 21. Revenues for the fourth quarter were 30% higher year on year on a reported basis with strong growth across the franchise. Revenues in fixed income and currencies increased by 26% with year-on-year improvements across all businesses. This represented the highest fourth quarter revenues on record.

我現在將轉到第 21 張投影片上的投資銀行部分。據報道，第四季營收年增 30%，整個特許經營業務均呈現強勁成長。固定收益和貨幣收入成長了 26%，所有業務均較去年同期成長。這是有記錄以來第四季的最高收入。

Financing revenues were significantly higher, reflecting strong fee income across the business, combined with an increased carry profile. Rates revenues were significantly higher, while its credit trading, foreign exchange and emerging markets increased benefiting from heightened market activity and client engagement.

融資收入大幅增加，反映出整個業務的手續費收入強勁，同時持有狀況也有所提高。利率收入大幅增加，而其信貸交易、外匯和新興市場則受益於市場活動和客戶參與度的提高而成長。

Moving to Origination & Advisory, revenues were significantly higher both year on year and sequentially with market share gains across business lines in a growing industry field fee pool. Advisory revenues were significantly higher, reflecting material market share gains year on year in a static industry fee pool.

至於發起和諮詢業務，營收年比和季均大幅成長，隨著產業領域費用池不斷擴大，各業務線的市佔率均有所增加。諮詢收入大幅增加，反映出在靜態產業費用池中材料市場佔有率較去年同期成長。

Debt origination revenues also increased and reflected strength in leverage debt driven by strong pipeline execution in an active market. Noninterest expenses were lower year on year due to the nonrepeat of a goodwill impairment in the prior year quarter.

債務發放收入也有所增加，反映出活躍市場中強勁的管道執行推動了槓桿債務的強勁成長。由於去年同期商譽減損未重演，非利息支出較去年同期下降。

Adjusted costs were essentially flat when excluding the increase in UK bank levies mentioned earlier. Loan balances increased compared to the prior year, driven by the impact of FX translation, combined with growth in financing. Provision for credit losses was EUR101 million or 37 basis points of average loans significantly lower year on year due to the non-repeat of Stage 1 and 2 model-related provisions in the prior year, while Stage 3 provisions also decreased.

如果排除前面提到的英國銀行稅費增加，調整後的成本基本上持平。受外匯折算的影響以及融資的成長，貸款餘額較上年增加。信貸損失準備金為 1.01 億歐元，即平均貸款 37 個基點，年比大幅下降，原因是去年第一階段和第二階段模型相關的準備金沒有重複，而第三階段準備金也有所減少。

Let me now turn to Private Bank on slide 22. The Private Bank is making progress both in creating revenue momentum and putting transformation-related costs and transitory credit costs behind us. Revenues of EUR2.4 billion in the quarter reflect noninterest revenue growth of 6% year on year on the back of higher investment product revenues.

現在我來談談第 22 張投影片上的私人銀行部分。私人銀行在創造收入動能以及降低轉型相關成本和暫時性信貸成本方面正在取得進展。本季營收為 24 億歐元，得益於投資產品收入的增加，非利息收入年增 6%。

NII declined by 5% driven by continued higher funding costs from the impact of minimum reserves, the group neutral impact of certain hedging costs, as well as a benefit from episodic lending revenues in the prior year quarter. Excluding these effects, fourth quarter revenues in the Private Bank would have been up 6% year on year.

NII 下降了 5%，原因是最低準備金的影響導致融資成本持續上升、某些對沖成本的集團中性影響，以及去年同期偶發貸款收入的好處。除去這些影響，私人銀行第四季的營收將年增 6%。

Personal Banking revenues were impacted by aforementioned higher funding allocations and hedging costs, partially offset by higher deposit revenues. Wealth Management and Private Banking revenues were essentially flat as higher investment product revenues and lending growth was offset by the nonrecurrence of episodic lending revenues in the prior year.

個人銀行業務收入受到上述更高的融資分配和對沖成本的影響，但被更高的存款收入部分抵銷。財富管理和私人銀行收入基本上持平，因為投資產品收入和貸款成長的增加被上一年不定期貸款收入的未發生所抵消。

The business attracted net inflows into assets under management of EUR2 billion, supported by deposit campaigns in Germany. Outflows in investment products were mainly driven by specific and isolated client transactions.

在德國存款活動的支持下，該業務吸引了 20 億歐元的資產管理淨流入。投資產品的流出主要受到特定和孤立客戶交易的推動。

As outlined in the third quarter, we see cost savings coming through as the Private Bank continues its transformation with a further 74 branch closures in the fourth quarter, bringing the total to 125 this year and accelerated head count reductions of more than 1,300 FTE in the past 12 months, mainly in Germany. The substantial improvement in adjusted cost of 9% reflects the benefits from transformation initiatives and lower regulatory as well as client service remediation costs, which are now effectively behind us.

正如第三季所述，隨著私人銀行繼續轉型，我們看到成本節約的成果。第四季度，該銀行又關閉了 74 家分行，使今年的分行總數達到 125 家，並且在過去 12 個月內加速裁減了超過 1,300 名全職員工，主要在德國。調整後成本大幅改善 9%，反映了轉型措施和降低監管以及客戶服務補救成本的好處，現在實際上已經過去了。

Noninterest expenses declined by 5% year on year despite higher restructuring and severance costs. Provision for credit losses reflects continued workout activities on a small number of legacy cases in wealth management, while transitory effects from operational backlog are taping off as expected. The overall quality of our domestic and international loan portfolios remains solid.

儘管重組和遣散費用增加，但非利息支出較去年同期下降了 5%。信貸損失準備金反映了財富管理領域對少數遺留案件的持續處理，而營運積壓的暫時性影響正如預期般逐漸減弱。我們的國內和國際貸款組合的整體品質仍然穩健。

Let me now turn to Asset Management on slide 23, which reached a key milestone during the fourth quarter by surpassing EUR1 trillion of assets under management for the first time. Scale is becoming increasingly important in this industry and for the DWS franchise, favorable market trends support our strategic positioning, especially given our strong position in passive products.

現在讓我轉到投影片 23 上的資產管理部分，該部分在第四季度達到了一個重要里程碑，其管理資產首次超過 1 兆歐元。規模在這個行業中變得越來越重要，對於 DWS 特許經營而言，有利的市場趨勢支持我們的策略定位，特別是考慮到我們在無源產品領域的強勢地位。

And a usual reminder, the Asset Management segment includes certain items that are not part of the DWS stand-alone financials. Profit before tax more than doubled from the prior year period, driven by higher revenues.

通常會提醒一下，資產管理部門包括某些不屬於 DWS 獨立財務的項目。由於收入增加，稅前利潤較上年同期增加了一倍多。

Revenues increased by 22% versus the prior year. This was primarily from higher management fees of EUR647 million from both active and passive products driven by growth in average assets under management. Additionally, performance fees more than doubled from the prior year period, primarily due to the recognition of a substantial multi-asset performance fee.

收入較上年增加22%。這主要是由於平均管理資產的成長帶動主動和被動產品的管理費增加 6.47 億歐元。此外，績效費用較上年同期增加了一倍多，這主要是由於確認了巨額多資產績效費用。

Other revenues principally reflected a negative revaluation of the fair value of guarantees and lower investment income, partly offset by lower treasury funding costs. Noninterest expenses and adjusted costs were both essentially flat compared to the prior year. Passive products continued their strong performance driven by X-trackers with a further EUR14 billion in the quarter, contributing to EUR42 billion of net inflows for the year.

其他收入主要反映了擔保公允價值的負面重估和較低的投資收益，但被較低的財政融資成本部分抵銷。非利息支出和調整後成本與上年相比基本持平。在 X-trackers 的推動下，被動產品持續保持強勁表現，本季新增 140 億歐元，為全年貢獻 420 億歐元的淨流入。

Cash, alternatives, quantitative solutions, and multi-asset also achieved good results with combined net inflows of EUR6 billion more than offsetting net outflows in active equity and fixed income products. Assets under management increased by EUR49 billion in the quarter, driven by positive FX effects and net inflows.

現金、另類投資、量化解決方案和多元資產也取得了良好的業績，合計淨流入 60 億歐元，超過了主動股票和固定收益產品的淨流出。受外匯利好和淨流入的推動，本季管理資產增加了 490 億歐元。

The cost-income ratio for the quarter declined to 67% and return on tangible equity was 21%, both improving from the prior year quarter. This morning, DWS communicated its outlook for 2025 and introduced new medium-term strategic targets, including 10% earnings per share growth per year from the starting point in 2025 to 2027. For further details, please have a look at the DWS disclosure on their Investor Relations website.

本季成本收入比下降至 67%，有形資產回報率為 21%，均較去年同期改善。今天上午，DWS 公佈了 2025 年的展望，並介紹了新的中期戰略目標，包括從 2025 年起點到 2027 年每年每股收益增長 10%。欲了解更多詳細信息，請參閱 DWS 投資者關係網站上的披露信息。

Moving to Corporate & Other on slide 24. Corporate & Other reported a pretax loss of EUR621 million this quarter, driven by the provision increase for foreign currency mortgages of EUR329 million, resulting from updates to the provision model parameters to reflect impacts of recent developments in the estimated cost of the legal risk.

移至幻燈片 24 上的「公司及其他」。企業及其他部門本季報告稅前虧損 6.21 億歐元，原因是外幣抵押貸款撥備增加 3.29 億歐元，而撥備模型參數的更新反映了法律風險估計成本的近期發展的影響。

This compares to a pretax profit of EUR104 million in the prior year quarter, which included a provision release of EUR287 million relating to legacy litigation matters. Revenues were negative EUR99 million this quarter, primarily driven by retained funding and liquidity impacts. This compares to negative EUR64 million in the prior year quarter, with the decrease driven by valuation and timing differences, which were positive EUR87 million in the quarter compared to positive EUR143 million in the prior year quarter.

相較之下，去年同期的稅前利潤為 1.04 億歐元，其中包括與遺留訴訟事宜相關的 2.87 億歐元撥備。本季營收為負 9,900 萬歐元，主要受保留資金和流動性影響。相比之下，去年同期為負 6,400 萬歐元，下降是由於估值和時間差異造成的，本季為正 8,700 萬歐元，而去年同期為正 1.43 億歐元。

Pretax losses associated with legacy portfolios primarily reflect the aforementioned litigation matters. At the end of the fourth quarter, risk-weighted assets stood at EUR34 billion, including EUR13 billion of operational risk RWA.

與遺留投資組合相關的稅前損失主要反映了上述訴訟事項。第四季末，風險加權資產為340億歐元，其中包括130億歐元的營運風險加權資產。

In aggregate, RWAs have reduced by EUR6 billion since the prior year quarter mainly reflect a change in the allocation of operational risk RWA. Leverage exposure was EUR38 billion at the end of the quarter, slightly lower than the prior year quarter.

總體而言，風險加權資產自去年同期以來減少了 60 億歐元，主要反映了操作風險風險加權資產分配的變化。本季末的槓桿曝險為380億歐元，略低於去年同期。

For 2025, we expect a significantly lower pretax loss for Corporate & Other of approximately EUR200 million per quarter or EUR800 million for the full year, mainly reflecting the nonrecurrence of legacy litigation matters. As usual, this includes some uncertainty, particularly associated with the valuation and timing differences.

到 2025 年，我們預計企業及其他業務的稅前虧損將大幅下降，約為每季 2 億歐元或全年 8 億歐元，這主要反映了遺留訴訟事項不再發生。像往常一樣，這包括一些不確定性，特別是與估值和時間差異相關的不確定性。

Finally, let me turn to the group outlook on slide 25. We believe we are on track to deliver increased revenues of EUR2 billion to achieve this year's revenue growth of around EUR32 billion, which translates to around EUR32.8 billion at year-end FX rates.

最後，請容許我轉到第 25 張投影片上的集團展望。我們相信，我們預計將營收增加 20 億歐元，從而實現今年約 320 億歐元的收入成長，按年底外匯匯率計算約為 328 億歐元。

We remain committed to rigorous cost management and we'll manage our cost base to a cost income ratio of below 65% for 2025. Although this is higher than the level we were previously aiming for, we feel good that the level of investment in 2025 positions us for incremental opportunities and higher returns over time while also further improving our control environment.

我們將繼續致力於嚴格的成本管理，並將在 2025 年將成本基礎管理到 65% 以下的成本收入比。雖然這高於我們先前的目標水平，但我們很高興看到，2025 年的投資水平將使我們獲得增量機會和更高的回報，同時也進一步改善我們的控制環境。

We continue to expect an amelioration of provision for credit losses in 2025 as the transitory headwinds we called out previously subside. This should result in a reduction to around EUR350 million to EUR400 million of average quarterly provisions with further normalization expected in the following years.

隨著我們先前預測的暫時性不利因素逐漸消退，我們預計 2025 年信貸損失準備金將會有所改善。這將導致平均季度撥備減少至約 3.5 億歐元至 4 億歐元，預計未來幾年將進一步正常化。

Our strong capital position gives us a solid step off for our 2025 and 2026 distribution objective. We remain committed to our capital distribution target. The EUR750 million share buyback announced today and the dividend of $0.68 per share, which we plan to propose at our Annual General Meeting, brings us to EUR2.1 billion of capital distributions so far this year.

我們強大的資本實力為我們實現 2025 年和 2026 年的分銷目標奠定了堅實的基礎。我們仍然致力於我們的資本分配目標。今天宣布的 7.5 億歐元股票回購和每股 0.68 美元的股息（我們計劃在年度股東大會上提出）使我們今年迄今的資本分配達到 21 億歐元。

Our full attention remains on delivering an RoTE of above 10% in 2025 driven by continued revenue momentum, cost control, and balance sheet efficiency. And these are the levers to also deliver further improved profitability beyond 2025.

我們將繼續全力關注在持續的收入成長動能、成本控制和資產負債表效率的推動下，到 2025 年實現 10% 以上的 RoTE。這些也是在 2025 年以後進一步提高獲利能力的槓桿。

With that, let me hand back to Ioana, and we look forward to your questions.

說完這些，請允許我將麥克風交還給 Ioana，我們期待您的提問。

Thank you, James. Operator, we're now ready to take questions.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。接線員，我們現在可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Nicolas Payen, Kepler Cheuvreux.

（操作員說明）Nicolas Payen，Kepler Cheuvreux。

Yes. Good morning. I have two questions, please. The first one would be on revenues. And could you elaborate on the bridge to EUR32 billion of revenue target, please? And in particular, what gives you confidence that you can reach EUR32 billion and how the start of the year position you towards these targets?

是的。早安.我有兩個問題請問。第一個是關於收入。能否詳細說明實現 320 億歐元收入目標的具體方法？特別是，是什麼讓您有信心達到 320 億歐元，以及今年年初您如何實現這些目標？

The second question will be on share buyback. You previously alluded to a share buyback annual growth of roughly 50%, which would put you at EUR1 billion share buyback versus the EUR750 million that you announced. So the question is, can we expect more throughout the years and at what point in time during this year? And also, what are the performance criteria that you're looking at to potentially announce more? Thank you.

第二個問題是關於股票回購。您之前提到股票回購的年增長率約為 50%，這將使您的股票回購額達到 10 億歐元，而您宣布的股票回購額為 7.5 億歐元。所以問題是，我們能否在未來幾年期待更多，以及今年的什麼時候會出現更多？此外，您認為發布更多消息需要哪些績效標準？謝謝。

Thank you, Nicolas. It's Christian. Let me start with your questions, and then James can obviously contribute. Look, what makes us confident is, first of all, the overall positioning and foundation, which we have built over the last four or five years as a Global Hausbank to our clients. The momentum, the development in all four businesses, feedback from clients.

謝謝你，尼古拉斯。這是基督教的。讓我先回答你的問題，然後詹姆斯顯然可以做出貢獻。你看，讓我們充滿信心的首先是過去四到五年我們作為一家全球房屋銀行為客戶建立的整體定位和基礎。四大業務的動能與發展以及客戶的回饋。

To be honest, in all the last three or four years, we not only met our revenue targets, but even exceeded that in the years really makes me confident that from the offering we have from the positioning we have is actually the right starting point also for the next years. And that feedback, Nicolas, we get continuously back from our clients, be it institutional clients, corporate clients, and private clients.

說實話，在過去的三、四年裡，我們不僅實現了收入目標，甚至還超越了目標，這讓我很有信心，從我們提供的產品和定位來看，這實際上也是未來幾年的正確起點。尼可拉斯，我們不斷從客戶那裡得到回饋，無論是機構客戶、企業客戶或私人客戶。

And let me also say that, in particular, the geopolitical items which we are facing in this world, in this regard, to be honest, support us. People want our advice. Corporates talk to us on their amended networks. So the mandates we get from the corporate side, from the institutional side, is, again, something which really makes me confident and is on a level which we haven't seen before.

我還要說的是，特別是我們在這個世界上面臨的地緣政治問題，在這方面，說實話，支持了我們。人們需要我們的建議。企業透過其修改後的網路與我們交談。因此，我們從企業方面、從機構方面獲得的授權再次讓我充滿信心，達到了我們以前從未見過的水平。

Now to the bridge from EUR30.1 billion, to be honest, to EUR32 billion. What makes me confident and how do we see that? I would really divide that in three parts: number one, it's EUR400 million coming from NII, and that is obviously reflecting the hedging which we have already put in place.

現在，老實說，從 301 億歐元到 320 億歐元。是什麼讓我充滿信心？我們如何看待這一點？我實際上將其分為三個部分：第一部分，4 億歐元來自 NII，這顯然反映了我們已經實施的對沖。

This will, in particular, come from the PV and the CV side. And on top of that, we see also the growth in our fixed financing. So that is approximately EUR400 million, which we will see also the good work which we have done on the treasury side with our business. So that is locked in.

這將特別來自 PV 和 CV 方面。除此之外，我們也看到固定融資的成長。所以這大約是 4 億歐元，我們還將看到我們在財務方面為業務所做的出色工作。所以它被鎖定了。

Now the next thing is, and we always talk about, so to say, the more predictable business we see approximately EUR800 million, if not even a bit more, from the more predictable business. And that, in particular, is the Private Bank, Asset Management, and the Corporate Bank.

現在接下來的事情是，我們總是談論更可預測的業務，我們從更可預測的業務中看到了大約 8 億歐元，甚至更多。具體來說，就是私人銀行、資產管理和企業銀行。

Now in those, you have approximately EUR400 million from the Corporate Bank. That, again, comes from active repricing monetizing our existing clients, scaling the business which we have invested in. If you look into our investment, which we have done in '23 -- in '24, but in particular, looking at the investment plan for 'b25, a high degree and partially the highest amounts in those years and in particular, in '25 goes into the Corporate Bank to really scale up our offering.

現在，您從企業銀行獲得了約 4 億歐元。這又源自於積極重新定價，將現有客戶貨幣化，擴大我們所投資的業務。如果你看一下我們的投資，你會發現我們在 2023 年至 2024 年所做的投資，特別是針對 2025 年的投資計劃，這些年，尤其是 2025 年，我們的投資額度很高，而且部分金額最高，這些資金都投入到了企業銀行，以真正擴大我們的服務規模。

And you have seen the overall development of the corporate bank, which is at the core of our franchise. And therefore, I can see at least this EUR400 million of uptick in the year 2025. And again, if I look at the mandates, which we are constantly winning how the year started, I'm very optimistic here.

大家也看到了企業銀行的整體發展，這是我們特許經營業務的核心。因此，我預計 2025 年至少會出現 4 億歐元的成長。再說了，如果我回顧我們在年初不斷贏得的授權，我對此非常樂觀。

The other EUR400 million is in particular coming from the PB and Asset Management side. And here, a lot of prework has been done. I think in the prepared remarks, we talked about the growth in the assets under management on both sides, the private bank and the asset management side.

另外 4 億歐元主要來自 PB 和資產管理。到這裡，很多前期工作已經完成了。我認為在準備好的發言中，我們談到了私人銀行和資產管理雙方管理資產的成長。

So obviously, with the fees generated out of that, we will see higher returns. There is no drag on the NII side. I talked about the initial EUR400 million. So therefore, we can clearly see with the increased volume, higher revenues.

因此顯然，透過收取費用，我們將獲得更高的回報。NII 方面沒有任何拖累。我談到了最初的4億歐元。因此，我們可以清楚地看到，隨著交易量的增加，收入也隨之增加。

Last but not least, I also said that in the discussions before, which we had on a quarterly side, there is a lot of momentum also in Germany, actually in the retail bank. I think Germany, one of the biggest problems and challenges we have is actually with our pension plans in the next years. And more and more, this is -- these are the discussions, which we have with our clients.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我還說過，在之前我們就季度情況進行的討論中，我們發現德國零售銀行也呈現出很大的發展勢頭。我認為，德國面臨的最大問題和挑戰之一實際上是未來幾年的退休金計劃。越來越多地，這些都是我們與客戶的討論。

And again, then applying that to 15 million Postbank clients now being on our IT platform is a huge opportunity for us and Claudio is banking on that. That brings us -- those two to EUR1.2 billion. So you are at EUR31.2 million, EUR31.3 billion.

再次，將其應用於現在使用我們 IT 平台的 1500 萬郵政銀行客戶對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，而 Claudio 也對此寄予厚望。這兩項支出使我們的總額達到了 12 億歐元。所以你的金額是 3120 萬歐元，313 億歐元。

Where is the rest coming from? EUR500 million to EUR600 million, in particular, in the Investment Bank from the O&A business. I think James and I talked a lot about that over the last 18 months. We did on purpose the investments in the middle of 2023, not only Numis, but in particular, also the hirings of senior directors in the Corporate Finance business. I think we could show with the growth rates in 2024 that this started to pay off.

其餘的從哪裡來？5億至6億歐元，特別是來自O&A業務的投資銀行。我想詹姆斯和我在過去的 18 個月裡談論過很多這個問題。我們特意在 2023 年中期進行了投資，不僅是對 Numis 的投資，特別是對企業財務業務高級董事的聘用。我認為我們可以透過 2024 年的成長率證明這項舉措已開始獲得回報。

I'm really proud what Fabrizio has done in that business. Look at the Q4 numbers in the O&A business. We clearly outperformed the market. And I can see that this momentum is going on. So we believe that actually in the O&A market, we can increase our market share by approximately 50 basis points to approximately 3 percentage points.

我為 Fabrizio 在該行業所取得的成就感到非常自豪。看看 O&A 業務的第四季數據。我們的表現明顯優於市場。我可以看到這種勢頭正在持續。因此，我們相信，實際上在 O&A 市場，我們可以將我們的市佔率提高約 50 個基點至約 3 個百分點。

And then I also do believe that actually the fee pool, in particular, given what is happening in this world with the growth momentum we see in the US will be higher next year. But the real impact the majority of the EUR500 million to EUR600 million is clearly coming from now that the investments are fully paying off and that we increase our market share. Now that already brings us almost very close to the EUR32 billion. I haven't talked about the FIC business because, obviously, in particular, Ram is not standing still.

然後我也確實相信，實際上費用池，特別是考慮到這個世界正在發生的事情以及我們看到的美國的成長勢頭，明年將會更高。但 5 億歐元至 6 億歐元的大部分實際影響顯然來自於現在，因為投資已經完全獲得回報，而且我們的市佔率也增加了。現在我們已經非常接近 320 億歐元的目標了。我沒有談論 FIC 業務，因為顯然 Ram 並沒有停滯不前。

We have done significant investments, in particular, in Latin America, but also North America in our business. watch the credit trading business, also with the recent hires, which we have done summer last year and obviously, which we are paying off more and more. And therefore, I do believe that we have also a chance to grow there.

我們在業務上進行了大量投資，特別是在拉丁美洲，但也在北美。專注於信貸交易業務，以及最近的招聘，我們去年夏天就進行了招聘，顯然，我們正在獲得越來越多的回報。因此，我確實相信我們也有機會在那裡發展。

So in this regard, that is the bridge for us from EUR30 billion to EUR32 billion. Obviously, the confidence level, which James and I have and Fabrizio and Claudio is also sparked by a first good month. Now we know we cannot rest here, one month is one month.

因此從這個方面來說，這是我們從 300 億歐元到 320 億歐元的橋樑。顯然，詹姆斯和我以及法布里齊奧和克勞迪奧的信心水平也因第一個月的良好表現而增強。現在我們知道我們不能在這裡休息，一個月就是一個月。

But the overall momentum in this bank to drive this, the feedback from the clients also last week in Davos is clearly telling me this is achievable, and I'm sure we can show you that already at the end of April.

但這家銀行推動這一目標的整體勢頭，以及上週在達沃斯收到的客戶的反饋都清楚地告訴我，這是可以實現的，我相信我們可以在 4 月底向大家展示這一點。

Second part on the share buybacks. Look, I do believe that James and I have also -- have always managed this bank in a prudent and conservative way, i.e., in particular, to your question, EUR1 billion to EUR750 million. First of all, I'm really happy with the starting point in which we start into this measurement here of 2025, 13.8% capital ratio gives us actually the ammunition, on the one hand, to grow business and have the right resources.

第二部分關於股票回購。你看，我確實相信詹姆斯和我一直以審慎和保守的方式管理這家銀行，特別是對於你的問題，10 億歐元到 7.5 億歐元。首先，我對我們開始以 2025 年為衡量標準的起點感到非常滿意，13.8% 的資本比率實際上為我們提供了彈藥，一方面可以發展業務，另一方面可以擁有正確的資源。

That's all in our plans. But at the same time, obviously, also reward our shareholders. With the EUR750 million, which we announced and we should not forget that the 50% increase in dividends, we actually announced to the market already a distribution of EUR2.1 billion for this year. I think it's a wonderful starting point. And actually, if you move that up, we are now at EUR5.4 billion.

這些都在我們的計劃之中。但同時，顯然也要回報我們的股東。我們宣布了 7.5 億歐元的分配，我們不應忘記股息增加了 50%，我們實際上已經向市場宣布今年的分配額為 21 億歐元。我認為這是一個非常好的起點。實際上，如果將其提高，我們現在的金額為 54 億歐元。

If we think about our past, which we gave to the market in particular with regard to growing our distribution and also the dividends and you apply the next increase on the dividends for next year, you are already very, very close to the EUR8 billion.

如果我們回顧過去，特別是我們在增加分銷和股息方面對市場做出的貢獻，再加上明年股息的增加，我們已經非常非常接近 80 億歐元了。

Now I think -- and that's what our approach is. Let us deliver on our business execution in the next month to deliver the 10% return on equity. Of course, we will review our distributions in the course of the year on the basis of our performance as, at the end of the day, we know that we also want to reward the shareholders, but I think it's a good and prudent start into the year.

現在我認為——這就是我們的方法。讓我們在下個月完成業務執行，達到 10% 的股本回報率。當然，我們將根據我們的業績來審查今年的分配情況，因為我們知道，最終我們也想回報股東，但我認為這是今年良好而謹慎的開始。

And let me end also with one thing, absolute confidence that we will do that what we promised to you to distribute more than EUR8 billion in the years '21 to '25, including the payouts in '26.

最後，我還要說一件事，我們絕對有信心，我們將兌現對你們的承諾，在 2021 年至 2025 年間派發超過 80 億歐元，包括 2026 年的支出。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Anke Reingen, RBC.

安克·雷因根（Anke Reingen），RBC。

I just wanted to ask about the costs. Can you please talk a bit more about the increase in your guidance of the adjusted costs to EUR20.3 billion. I mean how much of this is a function of your revenue expectations in 2025? And how much is this reflecting future investments?

我只是想詢問費用。能否再詳細談談關於調整後成本預期增加至 203 億歐元的情況？我的意思是，這在多大程度上取決於您對 2025 年的收入預期？這在多大程度上反映了未來的投資？

And then on the -- how should we think about it at the divisional level on how the higher cost base comes through in terms of -- also in terms of the cost-income ratio target and in comparison, you previously provided cost-income ratio target at your previous Capital Markets Day.

然後，我們應該如何在部門層級考慮如何實現更高的成本基礎，以及如何實現成本收入比目標，相較之下，您在先前的資本市場日上提供了成本收入比目標。

And then just the 62.5, is that now a target that's not in reach? Or does it remain a longer aspiration, something you might potentially discuss in the course of the year.

那麼 62.5 這個目標現在是不是遙不可及呢？或者它仍然是一個長期的願望，您可能會在今年內討論此事。

And then last question, I mean, obviously, this is a bit of a disappointment on the Q4 performance. What should give us the confidence that Q4 2025 doesn't give us a similar disappointment.

最後一個問題，我的意思是，顯然，這對第四季的表現有點令人失望。什麼能讓我們確信 2025 年第四季不會帶給我們類似的失望？

And then that aspect, I think the nonoperating costs at the EUR400 million looks relatively low. So if you can give us a bit more confidence that really the costs, I mean ignoring FX effects you will be able to deliver them.

從這個方面來看，我認為 4 億歐元的非營業成本看起來相對較低。因此，如果您能讓我們更有信心，相信我們真的能夠實現這些成本，我的意思是忽略 FX 效果。

It's James here. A lot to talk about, but all the right questions on the cost side for sure. So let me go in a little bit of a mixed order. On the nonoperating costs, look, start with restructuring and severance. We have a significant amount I don't know practically all, but we've come such a long way in terms of the transformation of the company that there is not a great deal left to do, and we control that number.

我是詹姆斯。有很多事情要談，但肯定都是關於成本方面的正確問題。因此，請容許我以稍微混合的順序來講解。關於非營業成本，首先要看重組和遣散費。我們有大量的工作，我幾乎不了解全部，但就公司轉型而言，我們已經取得了長足的進步，剩下的工作已經不多了，而且我們控制著這個數量。

When I say not a great deal, there's still some work that Claudio and his team are doing on the private bank, you've seen that. But of course, we've taken some into Q4 to enable us to take some actions already in 2025. But for practical purposes, we're through the major transformation of the company.

當我說不是很多時，克勞迪奧和他的團隊仍在私人銀行做一些工作，你已經看到了。當然，我們已經在第四季度採取了一些措施，以便能夠在 2025 年採取一些行動。但從實際角度來看，我們正在經歷公司的重大轉型。

On the litigation side, the way I think about it is that there's a funnel of matters that can result in outflows in any given period of time. And that funnel is simply emptied.

在訴訟方面，我的想法是，在任何特定時期內，一系列事務都可能導致資金流出。而這個漏斗就被清空了。

Now not in the right way. Obviously, in 2024, we had some surprises and there can always be unknown unknowns. But of the known items, the funnel is simply empty or on to empty and the risks that we can see are remote, both in terms of time and likelihood.

現在方式不對。顯然，在 2024 年，我們會遇到一些意外，而且總是會有未知的未知數。但就已知專案而言，漏斗只是空的或即將空的，而且無論從時間和可能性來看，我們所能看到的風險都很小。

So we feel really good about the trajectory now on the normalization of nonoperating costs, and that counts -- that goes for Q4 next year. Obviously, we're -- we have every incentive not to deliver another quarter in which there's a a messy Q4 -- another year in which there's a messy Q4.

因此，我們對目前非營業成本正常化的軌跡感到非常滿意，這一點很重要——這將適用於明年第四季。顯然，我們有充分的動力避免再出現第四季混亂的情況，也不會再出現第四季混亂的情況。

If I go to the Investor Day numbers, and this goes all the way back to 2022. But there actually, I see really good progress. So if I look to the business plans for this year or the business cost income ratios in our plan, really encouraging progress. Now these weren't formal targets, but definitely a guide for you. And we see the -- both Corporate Bank and Investment Bank within the range.

如果我查看投資者日數據，這可以追溯到 2022 年。但實際上，我看到了非常好的進展。因此，如果我看一下今年的業務計劃或我們計劃中的業務成本收入比，確實令人鼓舞的進展。現在這些不是正式的目標，但絕對可以作為您的指南。我們看到企業銀行和投資銀行都處於這個範圍內。

Corporate Bank may be towards the high end of the range, Investment Bank towards the middle of the range and asset management also very, very close to the top end of the range. So really good progress in those businesses. The Private Bank at this point will clearly be above the range.

企業銀行可能處於該範圍的高端，投資銀行可能處於該範圍的中端，而資產管理也非常接近該範圍的高端。因此這些業務確實取得了良好的進展。此時的私人銀行顯然將超出該範圍。

But actually, the underlying performance of the Private Bank is very encouraging in absolute terms are coming in very close to what we had factored in at the time. But there carrying the burden of really two things that some of where the incremental investment of controls and technology has gone in the years.

但實際上，私人銀行的基本表現從絕對值來看非常令人鼓舞，非常接近我們當時考慮的水平。但他們實際上承擔著兩方面的負擔，其中一些是多年來在控制和技術方面的增量投資。

And also as we've refined our internal cost allocations, you remember we've talked about driver-based cost management, it's tended to be shifted some of the expenses to the Private Bank. So overall, we're encouraged by what we see and there's still work to do. We don't think the trajectory for the businesses or the group ends with 2025. That gets me to your second -- to your third question, sorry. No, we're not cashiering the 62.5 forever.

而且，隨著我們完善內部成本分配，您記得我們討論過基於驅動因素的成本管理，它傾向於將部分費用轉移到私人銀行。總的來說，我們對所看到的情況感到鼓舞，但仍有工作要做。我們認為，該企業或集團的發展軌跡不會在 2025 年結束。這讓我想到了你的第二個——第三個問題，抱歉。不，我們不會永遠取消 62.5。

We think that the operating leverage that we've built and will continue to see in the company will take the cost income ratio further down in the years to come. And so we absolutely think that, that is within reach of the firm, but not in 2025.

我們認為，我們已經建立的、並將繼續在公司看到的經營槓桿將在未來幾年進一步降低成本收入比。因此，我們絕對認為，這是公司可以實現的，但不是在 2025 年。

And so that then gets you to what has driven the costs up to the -- our current view of 20.3 on the old FX. Look, it's a bunch of drivers. And again, cumulatively, since the last Capital Markets Day, I would probably bucket as one-third, one-third, one-third.

這樣，您就可以了解成本上漲的原因了——我們目前對舊 FX 的成本為 20.3。瞧，這是一群司機。再說一遍，累計起來，自上次資本市場日以來，我可能會將其分為三分之一、三分之一、三分之一。

It's EUR600 million or EUR700 million over that time, if you express it in cost/income ratio terms and about one-third has gone into business investments, about one-third into control and the further one-third into technology, if I give you rough rough numbers, probably a little bit more weighted towards technology in that math. Now you've seen us make those decisions.

如果以成本/收入比率來表示，那麼在這段時間內，這個數字是 6 億歐元或 7 億歐元，其中約三分之一用於商業投資，約三分之一用於控制，另外三分之一用於技術，如果我給你粗略的數字，那麼在數學上可能更傾向於技術。現在您已經看到我們做出這些決定。

And as we said in the prepared remarks, we think they are the right decisions for the company. Controls are the license to operate. And back in 22, we relatively quickly recognized we needed more investment to close out the control improvements to meet our own expectations and those of the regulators and that investment has continued.

正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們認為這些對公司來說是正確的決定。控制是操作的許可證。早在 22 年，我們就相對較快地意識到，我們需要更多的投資來完成控制改進，以滿足我們自己和監管機構的期望，而且投資一直在持續。

On technology, that's been sustained over the past several years. And as you know, our business very much competes on the technology that you can provide across a whole range of activities, including the client experience. And we think it's the right decision, therefore, to continue and sustain that investment. On the business side, this really goes back to the 2023 investment opportunity we saw particularly in the investment bank at the time. And we like how that investment is paying off and will pay off in the years to come.

就技術而言，這種情況在過去幾年一直持續。如您所知，我們的業務在您在一系列活動（包括客戶體驗）中所能提供的技術方面競爭非常激烈。因此，我們認為繼續並維持這項投資是正確的決定。從商業方面來看，這實際上可以追溯到我們當時在投資銀行看到的 2023 年投資機會。我們很高興看到這項投資目前以及未來幾年將獲得回報。

And so it's, if you like, the cumulative impact of those things that have carried into the costs for this year, if you're in the deep detail of why now and what wasn't visible to us last year, look, as we went through a planning cycle I would say, in addition to all of the above, inflation has run maybe $100 million in express just in '25 terms, higher than we might have have expected at the time.

因此，如果您願意的話，這些因素的累積影響已經影響到了今年的成本，如果您深入了解為什麼現在會發生這種情況以及去年我們無法預見到什麼，那麼當我們經歷一個規劃週期時，我會說，除了上述所有因素之外，僅在 25 年內，通貨膨脹率就可能達到了 1 億美元，高於我們當時的預期。

And as I say, so cumulatively, those are the drivers that have driven us to where we are now. Again, a lot of that has been offset by the very good work we've been doing under Rebecca's leadership on the efficiency program.

正如我所說，從累積的角度來看，這些都是推動我們走到今天這一步的因素。再說一遍，在麗貝卡的領導下，我們在效率計劃方面所做的出色工作已經抵消了許多損失。

And as Christian mentioned in his remarks, we've made enormous progress towards the EUR2.5 billion goal in terms of cost takeout, and there is more to come thereafter because I said in the last call, it's like peeling an onion, we see more opportunity as we get deeper into the transformation and deeper into some of the process improvements that we make.

正如克里斯蒂安在演講中提到的那樣，我們在成本削減方面已朝著 25 億歐元的目標取得了巨大進展，並且此後還會取得更多進展，因為我在上次電話會議上說過，這就像剝洋蔥一樣，隨著我們深入轉型並深入了解我們所做的某些流程改進，我們看到了更多機會。

Sorry, Anke, just -- I mean, 100% support, what James is saying. Just to reiterate that, obviously, below 65 is not our endpoint. And for that, I simply also wanted to refer to page 9 of our prepared remarks where, obviously, we are now thinking with all the investments we have done, what the outcome is. That goes beyond the EUR2.5 billion, which Rebecca is managing. But also here on purpose, obviously, we gave you a little bit of an outlook. So clear dedication and goal by the bank to go lower.

抱歉，安克，只是——我的意思是，我 100% 支持詹姆斯所說的話。只是重申一下，顯然 65 以下不是我們的終點。為此，我只是想參考我們準備好的演講稿的第 9 頁，顯然，我們現在正在思考我們所做的所有投資會產生什麼結果。這超出了麗貝卡管理的 25 億歐元。但顯然，我們在這裡也特意為您提供了一點展望。因此，銀行的決心和目標很明確，就是降低利率。

Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

I just wanted to come back to the cost line. So we should really look at EUR21.2 billion, I would say, is more realistic number. And in that context, can you just tell us what it also means in terms of revenues impact? Is it around I guess, EUR400 million roughly as well or slightly more, I assume? And in that context, can you talk a little bit about your ambition in Mittelstand?

我只是想回到成本問題。因此，我們應該真正考慮一下 212 億歐元，我想說，這是一個更現實的數字。在這種情況下，您能否告訴我們這對收入的影響意味著什麼？我猜大概是 4 億歐元左右，或是稍微多一點？在這種背景下，您能談談您在中小型企業的抱負嗎？

And if you have factored anything for expansion Mittelstand considering this clearly some opportunities in Germany with two banks potentially targets in terms of Mittlestand growth from your perspective? And can you talk about what you're actually doing on the ground to grow there?

如果您已經考慮到中小企業擴張的任何因素，那麼從您的角度來看，德國的兩家銀行顯然存在一些機會，可以成為中小企業成長的潛在目標嗎？您能談談您在那裡實際做了哪些工作來發展嗎？

Lastly, within cost and apologies it's clearly a big topic, flexibility on cost of asset before, but clearly, there's a higher cost guidance, that's a topic that we get a lot of questions on. If you can talk about flexibility in case you don't get the EUR32 billion plus. And if I may just ask on last question on page 9, on your return on, I guess, risk-weighted assets by business where you give the profit to risk weighted assets, very interesting chart, clearly.

最後，在成本和道歉方面，這顯然是一個大話題，之前資產成本的靈活性，但顯然，有一個更高的成本指導，這是我們有很多疑問的話題。如果您無法獲得 320 億歐元以上的資金，您可以談論靈活性。我可以問第 9 頁的最後一個問題，關於您按業務劃分的風險加權資產回報率，其中您將利潤計入風險加權資產，顯然，這是一張非常有趣的圖表。

And I'm just trying to understand what are the big buckets which we should look at in terms of underperforming businesses, so we understand what the opportunity is.

我只是想了解，對於表現不佳的企業，我們應該關注哪些大問題，這樣我們才能了解其中的機會是什麼。

Kian, thank you. Great questions again, lots to go through there. Let me start on the easy stuff, and I'll give Christian the harder questions. The FX impact, you're absolutely right to draw attention to it because what we wanted to do in our presentation was give you numbers that are consistent with what we've talked about for the past year. And hence, the presentation is largely -- is presented in what we would call plan FX levels, where euro-dollar was around EUR1.10, EUR1.11. And then we give you the translation into December FX, which was about EUR1.05.

基安，謝謝你。又問了很多好問題，有很多內容要討論。讓我先從簡單的問題開始，然後再問克里斯蒂安一些比較難的問題。您完全正確地註意到了外匯影響，因為我們希望在演示中為您提供與我們過去一年討論的內容一致的數字。因此，我們的呈現主要基於我們所謂的“計劃外匯水平”，當時歐元兌美元匯率約為1.10歐元或1.11歐元。然後，我們將其折算成12月份的外匯匯率，約1.05歐元。

And so that difference and creates on the revenue side, a number where $2 billion translates to about EUR32.8 billion. And on the expense side, as you say, 20.8 translates to 21.2. In the relationship between euros and dollars, dollar strengthening actually helps our margin just a little bit.

因此，在收入方面，這個差額相當於 20 億美元約 328 億歐元。就費用方面而言，正如您所說，20.8 相當於 21.2。在歐元兌美元匯率中，美元走強實際上對我們的利潤率略有提升。

And here, I refer to you to the currency breakout of revenues, expenses on page 36, where you can see that there's a little bit of asymmetry in dollar euro, where we have more revenues than expenses expressed in dollars, and that drives, therefore, just a little bit of FX improvement on the margin. Now that relationship will change over the course of the year.

在這裡，我請您參閱第 36 頁的收入和支出的貨幣明細，您可以看到美元和歐元之間存在一些不對稱，以美元表示的收入大於支出，因此，這只會導致外匯邊際略有改善。現在這種關係將會隨著時間的推移而改變。

So we'll continue to give you reporting that shows the year on year variances created by FX. One of the reasons we're talking about absolute numbers is always challenging given that change. And just to complete the picture, in case the question comes up, we do hedge the sterling risk. You'll see that there's also an asymmetry in sterling. We hedge that forward.

因此，我們將繼續向您提供報告，顯示外匯造成的年比差異。考慮到這種變化，我們討論絕對數字的原因之一始終具有挑戰性。為了使情況更加完整，如果出現問題，我們確實會對英鎊風險進行對沖。你會發現英鎊也存在不對稱現象。我們對此進行規避。

It's rolling, so it's not forever. But the euro-sterling currency differences don't really change the in-year number is a great deal. Kian, you had a follow-up?

它正在滾動，所以它不是永遠的。但歐元兌英鎊的貨幣差異實際上並沒有對年內數字產生很大的影響。Kian，您有後續行動嗎？

No, I'm fine.

不，我很好。

Looking on the Mittelstand, Germany -- sorry, I was on mute. On the Mittelstand, Germany, a very good question. Look, there are three or four areas where we are obviously enhancing our business and also making sure that our portfolio with the Mittelstand not only growing, but the profitability of the portfolio, like indicated by the way, on page 9 is further improving. Number one, we are going through this portfolio also from an SBA point of view. Clearly, one where we can do better, where we have done already action.

看看德國的中小企業——抱歉，我靜音了。關於德國中小型企業，這是一個非常好的問題。你看，有三個或四個領域我們顯然正在加強我們的業務，同時也確保我們與中小企業的投資組合不僅在增長，而且投資組合的盈利能力，如第 9 頁所示，也在進一步提高。首先，我們也從 SBA 的角度來檢視這個投資組合。顯然，我們可以做得更好，我們已經採取了行動。

And in particular, here, where our underlying process, which is also part of page 9, i.e., how do we set up this bank front-to-back processes in the lending business making sure that we don't have different processes for the various financing or payment flows that we are streamlining this.

特別是在這裡，我們的底層流程（也是第 9 頁的一部分）是如何在貸款業務中設定銀行的前後流程，以確保對於我們正在簡化的各種融資或支付流程，沒有不同的流程。

This is one area where actually a lot of investments of the Corporate Bank going into the setup into the platform and the streamlining the German setup. So it will add just from an efficiency point of view, we will see a very positive impact there.

實際上，企業銀行在這個領域投入了大量資金，用於平台的建立和德國設置的簡化。因此，僅從效率的角度來看，我們就會看到它產生非常正面的影響。

Number two, of course, with the focus on the corporate bank in 2019, we also -- and I can say that here also with a little bit of pride, we absolutely regain credibility and trust in the German home market. And if I look at our market shares in not only obviously the DUCs company, but in the Mittelstand, be it the bigger family-owned companies, the Mittelstand itself, but also in the small business areas, we have actually gained momentum.

第二，當然，隨著 2019 年對企業銀行的關注，我們——我可以帶著一絲自豪地說，我們絕對重新獲得了德國本土市場的信譽和信任。如果我看一下我們的市場份額，顯然不僅是在 DUC 公司，而且在中小企業中，無論是較大的家族企業、中小企業本身，還是在小型企業領域，我們實際上都獲得了發展勢頭。

We increased the revenues because the clients are feeling that Deutsche Bank wants to do that business. That was different before 2018. And with the constant improvements also process-wise, we obviously succeed. Thirdly, we have invested into our coverage. For Germany, if you want to really bank it in the best way, you need to be regionally.

我們增加了收入，因為客戶感覺到德意志銀行想要做這項業務。2018 年之前的情況有所不同。隨著流程的不斷改進，我們顯然取得了成功。第三，我們對報道進行了投資。對德國來說，如果想以最佳方式開展銀行業務，就需要區域化。

We have invested into our people here in order to make sure with the right coverage. And fourthly, yes, you alluded to that. Now obviously, I'm not talking in detail about that, but each situation in the industry is providing a huge opportunity. There is uncertainty in the market, you know what I'm talking about. And that obviously is a chance and opportunity for us, and we have started to work on this, and I'm sure more to come.

我們對這裡的員工進行了投資，以確保提供正確的保障。第四，是的，您提到了這一點。顯然，我現在不會詳細談論這一點，但行業中的每種情況都提供了巨大的機會。市場存在不確定性，你知道我在說什麼。這顯然對我們來說是一個機會，我們已經開始為此努力，我相信未來還會有更多。

So Mittelstand, Germany, is from a profitability point of view, efficiency point of view and from a growth, absolutely a focus. And let me also say, because I'm sure I'll get the next question, but we are not doing that at any price. We also need to take into account the situation, the economy. And therefore, we will not alter our underwriting standards because that would bite us and therefore, we keep the underwriting standards which we had. But doing this, we can see a clear growth here at home.

因此，從獲利能力、效率和成長的角度來看，德國中小企業絕對是一個重點。我還要說的是，因為我確信我會得到下一個問題，但我們無論如何都不會這樣做。我們還需要考慮情勢和經濟。因此，我們不會改變我們的承保標準，因為那會給我們帶來麻煩，因此，我們會保留原來的承保標準。但這樣做的話，我們可以看到國內出現了明顯的成長。

Kian, maybe just very briefly on you're pointing to slide 9, the chart on the right. It's what we can now work with over the next several years in a more fine-tuned way than previously, with each of the businesses looking at the drivers of their SBA or profitability against the resources that they deploy. It means we can grow revenues through things like repricing and just business growth.

Kian，也許只是非常簡短地介紹您指的第 9 張投影片，即右側的圖表。我們可以在未來幾年內以比以前更加精細的方式開展工作，每個企業都可以根據其部署的資源來考慮其 SBA 或盈利能力的驅動因素。這意味著我們可以透過重新定價和業務成長等方式來增加收入。

We can manage the expenses down, leveraging some of the tools we've built over the years, including driver-based cost management. And we can also work with the businesses to reduce the capital burden and there the efforts we've gone to create resources efficiency on the RWA side is also helping.

我們可以利用多年來建構的一些工具（包括基於驅動因素的成本管理）來降低開支。我們也可以與企業合作，減輕資本負擔，我們在 RWA 方面為提高資源效率所做的努力也有幫助。

To give you an example of where we are using these tools to make decisions, we talked about the mortgage product and especially in our home market and the deemphasis over the past couple of years of that product. It's part because at various prices, the product didn't meet its hurdles.

為了給你一個例子來說明我們如何使用這些工具來做決策，我們討論了抵押貸款產品，特別是在我們的國內市場，以及過去幾年對該產品的淡化。部分原因是，在各種價位下，該產品均未達到預期目標。

Middle market lending equally in Germany is something we need to improve the profitability of, as Christian says, it's strategically critical. It needs to carry itself from a profitability perspective as well. There are other portfolios all around the company that we're working with the businesses very closely on.

正如克里斯蒂安所說，我們需要同樣提高德國中端市場貸款的獲利能力，這具有戰略意義。它還需要從獲利角度來表現自己。我們正在與公司其他各領域的企業密切合作。

And the level of engagement in this work is extremely high, which is -- which gives us a lot of optimism about how these levers can be pulled over the next several years to drive a very significant impact in bringing each of the units up and also the average.

這項工作的參與程度非常高，這讓我們對未來幾年如何利用這些槓桿對每個單位和平均水平的提升產生非常重大的影響充滿信心。

Flora Bocahut, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的弗洛拉‧博卡胡特 (Flora Bocahut)。

The first question I wanted to ask is actually a clarification, regarding the buyback, the EUR750 million that you announced today, just to understand when you intend to launch that buyback. Are we talking just a few days? Or are we talking several months before this gets launched?

我想問的第一個問題實際上是關於回購的澄清，即您今天宣布的 7.5 億歐元，只是想了解您打算何時啟動回購。我們只談幾天嗎？還是我們談論的是該產品推出前幾個月的情況？

And then on the questions, first is actually coming back to the CET1 trajectory and distribution plans. And thank you, Christian, for clarifying how the performance is going to play into potentially more distribution.

然後關於問題，首先實際上是回到 CET1 軌跡和分佈計劃。謝謝你，克里斯蒂安，解釋了這場演出將如何影響潛在的更多發行。

But I also wanted to draw the attention on the regulatory risk here because my understanding is that the Basel IV first-time implementation is now expecting to cost you just EUR5 billion additional RWA, so not the EUR7.5 billion that had initially been guided.

但我也想提請大家注意這裡的監管風險，因為我的理解是，巴塞爾協議 IV 的首次實施預計只會花費您 50 億歐元的額外 RWA，而不是最初指導的 75 億歐元。

Obviously, this discussion ongoing on whether FRTB implementation in Europe is going to be delayed. I know no decision has been made yet, but assuming this would get delayed by another year, could that mean also upside risk to your distribution plans for 2025 beyond the actual performance itself? And then a word on provisions that we haven't discussed too much yet. I think the guidance you provide for 2025 points to EUR1.4 billion to EUR1.6 billion of provisions.

顯然，關於歐洲是否會推遲實施 FRTB 的討論仍在繼續。我知道目前還沒有做出決定，但假設這會再推遲一年，這是否意味著除了實際表現之外，您的 2025 年分銷計劃還面臨上行風險？然後談談我們尚未過多討論的條款。我認為您為 2025 年提供的指導表明撥備金額為 14 億歐元至 16 億歐元。

Consensus is right in the middle at EUR1.5 billion. So just if you could discuss where is the risk on that number, whether to the upside or the downside, what gives you the confidence, the visibility on that number with a special word also, if you can, on the US commercial real estate portfolio, especially U.S. offices after the Fed is more likely now to keep rates higher for longer?

大家的共識是，金額處於中間水平，為 15 億歐元。因此，如果您可以討論一下這個數字的風險在哪裡，是上行還是下行，是什麼讓您對這個數字有信心，如果可以的話，請特別談談美國商業房地產投資組合，特別是美國辦公室，在美聯儲現在更有可能在較長時間內維持高利率之後？

Also great questions. And for the others, I won't say great questions again. So don't be insulted if I don't repeat that. So briefly on the start of the buyback program. Look, every year, we start with the buybacks that offset employee share deliveries against previous year compensation.

還有一些很好的問題。對於其他問題，我不會再提出很好的問題。所以如果我不重複這一點，請不要感到受辱。簡單介紹一下回購計畫的啟動。你看，每年，我們都從回購股票開始，以抵銷員工去年的薪水。

So it actually takes a little while until we complete that and so we would only start the EUR750 million once that is done. It takes a little bit of time, but we're in the market really for most of the first quarter with the former buyback.

因此，我們實際上需要一段時間才能完成這項工作，因此只有在完成後我們才會啟動 7.5 億歐元的融資。這需要一點時間，但在第一季的大部分時間裡，我們確實都在市場上進行前一次回購。

As is last -- was the case last year, I can see some of this amount slipping into the early part of Q3, but we would expect to get the bulk of it done earlier than that. On the -- I'll talk about the trajectory on CRR3. Look, it's more or less where we thought it'd be.

就像去年的情況一樣，我看到部分金額會進入第三季初，但我們預計大部分金額會在那之前完成。關於——我將談論 CRR3 上的軌跡。瞧，它差不多就在我們想像的地方。

And yes, there are a bit still to come. So there's a bit of a round trip in the first quarter. Because in the technical details of CRR3, the OpRisk RWA doesn't hit you January 1, but only really moderately first. But the net number of about 15 basis points down, there's a -- it's about 5 basis points up in our estimates on January 1 and then 20 basis points to come on OpRisk RWA. There are some modest adjustments also in and credit risk that come into it.

是的，還有一些事情要做。因此，第一季的情況有些反覆。因為在 CRR3 的技術細節中，OpRisk RWA 不會在 1 月 1 日對您造成影響，而只是在一開始對您造成適度的影響。但淨值下降了約 15 個基點，而根據我們的估計，1 月 1 日的數值大約是上升了 5 個基點，然後 OpRisk RWA 數值大約是上升了 20 個基點。其中還涉及一些適度的調整和信用風險。

That trajectory is encouraging. But as Christian says, we need to seeing how the year develops and actually, the calculations are relatively new and fresh. And so it will take time for the systems, the models and what have you to settle a little bit, and we'll be back to you.

這一軌跡令人鼓舞。但正如克里斯蒂安所說，我們需要觀察今年的情況如何發展，實際上，這些計算方法相對較新。因此，系統、模型和其他方面都需要一些時間來穩定下來，然後我們再回覆您。

On FRTB, that is an opportunity. Naturally, we need to plan with the expectation that, that will be implemented in January of next year, and we would stick with the estimate of around really EUR7.5 billion of impact in RWA from the first of the year, 26.

對於 FRTB 來說，這是一個機會。當然，我們需要製定計劃，預計該計劃將於明年 1 月實施，並且我們將堅持估計從今年年初開始，風險加權資產 (RWA) 的實際影響約為 75 億歐元，即 26 億歐元。

I think there's a decent likelihood it will be delayed just because I think we all believe and so does some of the legislators that creating a competitive disadvantage for the European banks in this area, waiting until FRTB implementation comes to the United States and the UK would be unnecessarily damaging.

我認為很有可能它會被推遲，因為我認為我們都相信，一些立法者也這麼認為，等到 FRTB 實施到美國和英國，會給歐洲銀行在這一領域的競爭帶來不利影響，造成不必要的損害。

And hence, we do think that's an opportunity. And at a point in time where it's more certain, it can enter into our capital trajectory and thinking. I would add that there's some other potential changes in our requirements going forward that can impact, say, MDA.

因此，我們確實認為這是一個機會。在更確定的時間點，它就可以進入我們的資本軌跡和思維。我想補充一點，我們未來的需求還會發生一些其他潛在的變化，這些變化可能會對 MDA 等人產生影響。

And then lastly, on CLP, it's a relatively wide range. I think if you asked us today, we'd probably stay closer to the top end of the range, given that we still have to see, as you say, commercial real estate, the moderation take place, we're looking at the domestic middle market portfolio, as we've talked about in the past, in the economic environment that's still uncertain.

最後，對於 CLP 來說，範圍相對較廣。我想如果你今天問我們，我們可能會更接近該範圍的高端，因為我們仍然必須看到，正如你所說，商業房地產，適度發生，我們正在關注國內中端市場投資組合，正如我們過去談到的，在仍然不確定的經濟環境中。

But we do and hence, the confidence about moderation, we do think we're at the back end of this credit cycle. So from what we see today, we're quite confident about the improvement. EUR1.6 billion, so the high end would represent about 33 basis points, which as you know from our prior years and also prior guidance, would be relatively at a higher end for us.

但我們確實如此，因此，我們對適度成長充滿信心，我們確實認為我們正處於這一信貸週期的後端。因此，從我們今天看到的情況來看，我們對這項改善非常有信心。16 億歐元，因此最高值約為 33 個基點，正如您從我們前幾年以及先前的指導中所知，這對我們來說相對較高。

But obviously, there's a lot still to water to pass under the bridge between now and the end of the year. Hopefully, that covered all your questions, Flora.

但顯然，從現在到年底，還有很多事情需要解決。希望這能解答你所有的問題，弗洛拉。

Yes. Can I just clarify when you just said that the CLPs could be closer to the top end of the range, you mean EUR1.6 billion?

是的。我能否澄清一下，您剛才說 CLP 可能更接近該範圍的最高端，您的意思是 16 億歐元？

Yeah, the 400 on a quarterly basis, look, I think a little bit like last year, we would expect maybe to start -- the first quarter or two at the higher end and then ameliorate as the year goes by. Again, we'll have to see how that plays out both in each of the quarters and the year.

是的，按季度計算，400，看，我認為有點像去年，我們預計可能會在第一季度或第二季度處於較高水平，然後隨著時間的推移而改善。再次，我們必須觀察其在每個季度和全年的表現。

Hence, we gave you quarterly guidance rather than the full year, but just the widest end of the range, therefore, would be the -- ends of the range of EUR1.4 billion to EUR1.6 billion.

因此，我們給您的是季度指導而不是全年指導，但範圍的最寬端將是 - 14 億歐元至 16 億歐元範圍的兩端。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Incidentally, actually, just to come back on one thing, Flora, you're right. We looked at the consensus and really consensus is in line with our guidance and thinking on most line items, of which credit loss provisions is one. Obviously, the cost is another prior to any adjustment for FX, as Ken pointed out. And the gap is really on revenues.

順便說一句，實際上，我只想回顧一件事，弗洛拉，你是對的。我們研究了共識，事實上共識與我們對大多數專案的指導和想法一致，其中信用損失準備金就是其中之一。顯然，正如肯所指出的，在對外匯進行任何調整之前，成本是另一回事。差距實際上在於收入。

Giulia Aurora Miotto, Morgan Stanley.

朱莉婭·奧羅拉·米奧托，摩根士丹利。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. First, a clarification, James, I think I heard you saying potential changes in requirements that can impact MDA? Can you elaborate on this, what do you mean? Did I understand it correctly?

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，澄清一下，詹姆斯，我想我聽到你說需求的潛在變化可能會影響 MDA？能詳細說明一下嗎，你的意思是什麼？我理解得對嗎？

And then secondly, on the Private Bank on slide 4. I appreciate you are on the journey. But still 5% ROE is still incredibly low.

其次，關於幻燈片 4 上的私人銀行。我很感激你踏上這段旅程。但 5% 的 ROE 仍然非常低。

What -- for retail bank in Europe, it should be at least be double. What do you have in mind? And what complete actions are you taking to significantly boost the RoTE here? Thank you.

對於歐洲的零售銀行來說，這個數字至少應該要翻倍。你有什麼想法？您採取了哪些全面措施來顯著提高這裡的 RoTE？謝謝。

So Julie, I'll start with the first on MDA and Christian will talk to the private bank. Look, MDA, right, has gone up for us to around a little bit over 13.3%. And that, therefore, drives our views on the level of CET1 that we need to run at with an appropriate buffer against that. And of course, the 13.8% is a good place to be in that regard. There will be some changes, as we talked about FRTB denominator impact, but also potentially some changes in MDA.

朱莉，我將首先談論 MDA，然後克里斯蒂安將談論私人銀行。你看，MDA，對的，已經上升到大約 13.3% 以上。因此，這決定了我們對 CET1 水平的看法，即我們需要為此設定適當的緩衝。當然，從這個角度來看，13.8% 是一個不錯的水平。正如我們討論的 FRTB 分母影響一樣，會有一些變化，但 MDA 也可能會有一些變化。

One example would be our OSII positioning might take a year. But given our relative score in terms of G-SIFI ness, call it, we would expect to be coming down in our G-SIB over time as an example. The second is inside our numbers, you have the mortgage sectoral buffer, which is already -- which is also impacting how we're capitalized. So my point is that the level of capitalization that we operate at now and the gap to MDA that's implied by it is a conservative point, let's put it that one on both numbers.

一個例子是我們的 OSII 定位可能需要一年。但考慮到我們在 G-SIFI 方面的相對得分，我們預計我們的 G-SIB 得分會隨著時間的推移而下降。第二個是在我們的數字中，你有抵押貸款部門緩衝，它已經 - 這也影響了我們的資本化方式。所以我的觀點是，我們目前的資本水平以及由此隱含的與 MDA 的差距是一個保守的觀點，讓我們把它放在兩個數字上。

On the private bank, first of all, you're right. I mean, a 5% RoTE, obviously, not sufficient at all. But therefore, we are doing this full transformation. And by the way, if we digest and really divide the private bank, the real challenge, which we are working on in Retail Germany.

關於私人銀行，首先，你是對的。我的意思是，5% 的 RoTE 顯然是不夠的。因此，我們正在進行全面轉型。順便說一句，如果我們消化並真正劃分私人銀行，真正的挑戰是我們在德國零售銀行正在努力解決的。

Now when you look at the levers, first of all, at the start, we see a good revenue momentum in the private bank, by the way, also in Retail Germany. So overall, the private bank will go by approximately EUR400 million year over year.

現在，當你觀察槓桿時，首先，一開始，我們看到私人銀行的收入勢頭良好，順便說一下，德國零售業也是如此。因此總體而言，私人銀行的營業額將比去年同期增加約 4 億歐元。

Secondly, one of the largest cost takeouts also in absolute numbers is next year again in the Private Bank in Germany or that what James also said, where we put restructuring costs for the further fallout, so to say, in a positive way from the IT technology transfer from Postbank to Deutsche Bank is paying off.

其次，從絕對數字來看，最大的成本支出之一明年將再次出現在德國私人銀行，或者正如詹姆斯所說，我們將重組成本用於進一步的影響，可以說，從郵政銀行到德意志銀行的 IT 技術轉移正在產生積極的影響。

So also there from a cost point of view, it's another and not only low 3-digit million number where actually, Claudio is reducing costs in the private bank. And thirdly, James gave you another example from an RoTE point of view, we have certain portfolios or some portfolios in the private bank, where from an SBA methodology, we are simply not rewarding our shareholders. And at the end of the day, our capital in a sufficient way.

因此，從成本的角度來看，這不僅僅是三位數的百萬以下的數字，實際上，克勞迪奧正在降低私人銀行的成本。第三，詹姆斯從 RoTE 的角度給你舉了另一個例子，我們在私人銀行中擁有某些投資組合或一些投資組合，從 SBA 方法論來看，我們根本沒有獎勵我們的股東。最終，我們的資本已經足夠了。

And that is the third lens where with repricing, but also with reallocating capital, we are improving the picture. One bit only that you also see there is full attention on, and we are working on it. If you just look at Q4 2024 and you look at Claudio's private bank costs versus Q4 2023, we had a reduction of 9%. That shows you that there is full focus on that transition that we know we need to get the cost down. The plans are there. Implementation is underway. But fortunately, it's not only that, it's revenues and SBA.

這是第三個視角，透過重新定價以及重新分配資本，我們正在改善情況。有一點您也看到了，我們對此給予了充分的關注，並且正在努力解決。如果您只看 2024 年第四季度，並比較 Claudio 的私人銀行成本與 2023 年第四季度，您會發現成本減少了 9%。這表明我們充分關注這一轉變，我們知道我們需要降低成本。計劃就在那裡。實施正在進行中。但幸運的是，不僅如此，還有收入和 SBA。

Can I just follow up? What is the difference in ROE between Germany and the rest within the Private Bank?

我可以跟進一下嗎？德國私人銀行的ROE與其他國家的私人銀行有何不同？

It's in particular from a legacy point of view, the structure of the platforms, the IT platforms we have. So as we did, fortunately, the transfer of the IT last year or in 2023 from Postbank to Deutsche Bank, we are, again, in a constant way, obviously, pulling off applications, closing applications, then we have, obviously, from a simply location point of view, we have the largest number of branch closures.

特別是從傳統的角度來看，我們擁有的平台結構、IT 平台。因此，正如我們去年或 2023 年將 IT 從郵政銀行轉移到德意志銀行時所做的那樣，我們顯然正在以持續的方式撤回申請、關閉申請，然後，顯然，從簡單的位置角度來看，我們關閉的分行數量最多。

Obviously, also the largest numbers of people where with streamlining the processes going more into a digital offering, in particular, in the retail bank. You see most of the transformation and also the efficiency gains in the Private Bank. So Germany, in this regard from the legacy point of view, system, location, branches, integration of Postbank is in this regard, the one where most of the work is on.

顯然，大多數人員也希望透過簡化流程來更多地使用數位化服務，尤其是在零售銀行。您可以看到私人銀行的大部分轉型和效率提升。因此，從歷史遺留角度來看，德國郵政銀行在系統、地點、分行、整合等方面的工作最為繁重。

Got it. But I was only just the ROE number between Germany and the rest within the Private Bank?

知道了。但我只是德國和私人銀行內部其他地區的ROE數字？

We don't publish that number, but I mean, the Wealth Management and personal banking -- and private banking is double digit. So it is we can definitely converge in -- well into the double digits as we address the issues that Christian just alluded to in the German retail personal banking segment.

我們沒有公佈這個數字，但我的意思是，財富管理和個人銀行業務——以及私人銀行業務是兩位數。因此，當我們解決克里斯蒂安剛才提到的德國零售個人銀行業務領域的問題時，我們肯定可以收斂到兩位數。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Hallam, GS.

克里斯·哈勒姆，GS。

Yeah. Good morning, everybody. Just two, I guess, modeling questions left for me. Firstly, on the growth in FIC, so if I take the guidance, the EUR200 million or so growth that you're guiding to for FICC in 2025 how does that shake out in terms of financing versus nonfinancing?

是的。大家早安。我想，只剩下兩個建模問題需要我回答了。首先，關於 FIC 的成長，如果我接受指導，那麼您預測 2025 年 FICC 的成長將達到 2 億歐元左右，那麼從融資和非融資的角度來看，這將如何變化？

If I look at solid performance in Q4 financing revenues, if I just run rate that through 2025, that's obviously imperfect, but that would sell for effectively all of the EUR200 million increase year-over-year in the guidance. So just any color you can give in terms of FIC growth on our line line basis? And then secondly, deposit growth was quite strong in the Private Bank in Q4.

如果我看一下第四季度融資收入的穩健表現，如果我只將其計算到 2025 年，這顯然是不完美的，但這實際上可以實現指導中同比增長 2 億歐元的全部目標。那麼，您能否根據我們的線路基礎給出 FIC 成長方面的任何說明？其次，第四季私人銀行的存款成長相當強勁。

So what are you assuming in terms of deposit growth in 2025 within that EUR300 million banking NII guidance?

那麼，在 3 億歐元銀行 NII 指引額度內，您對 2025 年存款成長有何假設？

So Chris, the FIC financing revenues are in the more predictable revenue stream bucket, so the 40% in Christian's slide 7, so contributing to that EUR800 million. FIC market, to your point, would be the EUR200 million or EUR300 million of contribution in the -- in what we characterize as the remain revenue streams. In FIC financing, however, there's -- as you know, it splits between carry and revenues.

Chris，FIC 融資收入屬於更可預測的收入流類別，也就是 Christian 第 7 張投影片中提到的 40%，即貢獻了 8 億歐元。 FIC就您的觀點而言，市場將貢獻 2 億歐元或 3 億歐元——我們稱之為剩餘收入來源。然而，在 FIC 融資中，如您所知，它分為套利和收入。

We're quite encouraged given the 12% growth we had now just in the fourth quarter about our ability to continue growing that revenue stream. So it should do at least EUR100 million, maybe some more in NII and then earn additional fees, I would think, fee growth.

考慮到我們在第四季度實現的 12% 的成長率，我們對自己繼續增加收入的能力感到非常鼓舞。因此，它應該投入至少 1 億歐元，也許在 NII 方面投入更多，然後賺取額外的費用，我認為，費用會增加。

But just to clarify, in the buckets, the rest of FIC markets, so rates, credit and emerging markets would -- and FX would be the balance of the remaining revenue stream number. In terms of deposit growth, we've seen quite strong deposit growth.

但需要澄清的是，在這些類別中，其餘的 FIC 市場，即利率、信貸和新興市場，以及外匯將是剩餘收入流數字的餘額。就存款成長而言，我們看到了相當強勁的存款成長。

And actually, what's been encouraging is it has shifted back into site deposits from term. And that's, as we talked about, being helpful for the margin on the deposit side. We are expecting considerable growth in both of the deposit businesses in 2025.

實際上，令人鼓舞的是，它已經從定期存款轉回現場存款。正如我們所討論的，這對存款方面的利潤有幫助。我們預計 2025 年這兩項存款業務都將大幅成長。

I can't give you precise numbers. But we see liquidity in the marketplace and the ability to put on liabilities at attractive prices and SBA. The one caveat I do want to mention, though, is we talked last quarter about a couple of relatively concentrated deposit levels. So we're -- as those wind down, we are offsetting the runoff of a couple of concentrated deposits. And hence, you'll see the net of those two in the numbers over the course of the year.

我無法給你精確的數字。但我們看到了市場流動性以及以有吸引力的價格和 SBA 承擔債務的能力。不過，我確實想提到的一個警告是，我們上個季度討論了幾個相對集中的存款水準。因此，隨著這些礦產資源的減少，我們正在抵銷一些集中礦產資源的流失。因此，您將在一年的時間內看到這兩個數字的淨值。

Also Q4, as we had a year -- actually two years ago, represents a relatively high print. So I would see us recovering to the Q4 level over the course of Q1, maybe into Q2 and then more of that growth flowing through into the back half of the year.

此外，與去年（實際上是兩年前）的情況一樣，第四季度的印刷量也相對較高。因此，我認為我們會在第一季恢復到第四季度的水平，甚至可能在第二季度恢復，然後在下半年實現更多的成長。

Okay. That's very helpful. Thank you.

好的。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thank you, Chris.

謝謝你，克里斯。

Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous.

史蒂芬‧斯塔爾曼 (Stefan Stalmann)，自治。

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. I would like to start with the strategic question, please. There's quite a lot of M&A activity these days in European Asset Management between BNP and AXA and Generali. Does that change anything in the way that you look at your asset management strategy, please? And then would you actually be willing to consider M&A? And then just two number questions, please.

早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想先問一下戰略問題。目前，法國巴黎銀行、安盛銀行和忠利集團等歐洲資產管理公司之間的併購活動相當活躍。這是否會改變您對資產管理策略的看法？那麼您是否真的願意考慮併購？請問一下，只問兩個數字問題。

The first on market risk-weighted assets. From what you say about the trajectory in the fourth quarter, it seems that your market risk-weighted assets must now be around EUR19 billion or maybe even a bit lower, which I think is the lowest level since you started disclosing this. Is there any possibility that this is snapping back? Or is there something more structural at work here?

市場上第一個風險加權資產。從您所說的第四季度的走勢來看，您的市場風險加權資產現在應該在 190 億歐元左右，甚至可能更低，我認為這是您開始披露這一數據以來的最低水平。這有可能反彈嗎？或者這裡面還有什麼更結構性的東西在運作？

And finally, you mentioned not only this time, but also previously that you have benefited from credit hedges. So some of your credit loss provisions have been offset by revenue elsewhere. Can you maybe give us a rough sense of how much revenue was actually generated from these hedges in 2024, please? And in which line items which revenue line items, we would find them.

最後，您不僅這次提到，而且之前也提到您從信用對沖中受益。因此，您的部分信用損失準備金已被其他地方的收入所抵消。您能否粗略地告訴我們，2024 年這些對沖實際上產生了多少收入？我們可以在哪些項目、哪些收入項目中找到它們。

Thanks for the question, Stefan. Just briefly, we love our asset management business. We think DWS is really well positioned in today's markets. And having now exceeded the EUR1 trillion or dollar level, we can see that it has scale and profitability and also growth prospects. And so while we obviously see what's going on strategically in the market around us, we think we're well positioned.

謝謝你的提問，Stefan。簡而言之，我們熱愛我們的資產管理業務。我們認為 DWS 在當今市場中佔據著非常有利的地位。現在它已經超過了1兆歐元或1億美元的水平，我們可以看到它具有規模和獲利能力，也有成長前景。因此，當我們清楚地看到周圍市場正在發生的策略變化時，我們認為我們處於有利地位。

On the market risk RWA side, you're absolutely right, $19 billion is correct and it represents a relatively low level. Two reasons. One is year-end is often just like seasonally below. And secondly, you will have seen in the VAR numbers relatively low VAR, some of which reflects the volatility in the market and not so much the book. And hence, we would expect some amount of recovery, if you like, or an increase in market risk RWA during the course of the year.

在市場風險 RWA 方面，您完全正確，190 億美元是正確的，它代表相對較低的水平。兩個原因。一是年末往往就像下面這個季節一樣。其次，您會在 VAR 數字中看到相對較低的 VAR，其中一些反映了市場的波動性，而不是帳面的波動性。因此，如果您願意的話，我們預計今年市場風險 RWA 會出現一定程度的復甦或增加。

As it relates to the credit hedges, I need to double check the number, but it's orders of magnitude around $100 million, a little bit more, I think, in the businesses, mostly reflected in remaining income in the businesses. and some in interest income.

由於它與信用對沖有關，我需要仔細檢查這個數字，但它的數量級約為 1 億美元，我認為在業務中會稍微多一點，主要反映在業務的剩餘收入中，還有一些利息收入。

So a bit of a split depending on whether you see it in the investment bank or the corporate bank. And those hedges, we've talked about, I think, $42 billion of total sort of, if you like, hedges. Those hedge volumes, we well, we'll look to grow from here given what we say, I said about SRTs and the market availability.

因此，這取決於你是在投資銀行還是在公司銀行看到這種情況。我們已經討論過的那些對沖，我認為，總額大約是 420 億美元，如果你願意的話，可以這麼說。鑑於我們所說的 SRT 和市場可用性，我們將預期這些對沖量從現在開始成長。

But these are ongoing programs that we have. So you can assume that type of protection and probably growing from here. Going forward, we manage concentration risks as well as capital usage with instruments.

但這些都是我們正在進行的計畫。因此，您可以假設這種類型的保護，並且可能從這裡開始發展。展望未來，我們將利用工具管理集中風險以及資本使用。

Andrew Coombs, Citi.

花旗銀行的安德魯庫姆斯 (Andrew Coombs)。

Two, please. follow-ups. Firstly, you said that there are two areas of investment in your earlier commentary. One was the tech controls and remediation. The other was growing the franchise beyond the initial revenue ambitions.

請回答兩個問題。首先，您在先前的評論中提到有兩個投資領域。一是技術控制和補救。另一個是讓特許經營權的成長超越最初的收入目標。

And I think you have given us a few points of where that has been over the course of the call, but perhaps you can just give more granular examples of which areas you have expanded beat on your initial ambitions. And given you haven't changed the revenue guidance the $25 million, but you have the costs, what is the payback period on those investments.

我認為您在通話過程中已經向我們介紹了一些情況，但也許您可以提供更具體的例子，說明您在哪些領域已經超越了您最初的目標。鑑於您沒有改變 2500 萬美元的收入預期，但您有成本，這些投資的回收期是多少？

Do you think you're going to see that come through in '26, '27, that would be useful. And then my second question is just on that revenue bridge. Thank you for the very granular answer you gave earlier around the core divisions and see how that adds up to EUR2 billion.

您認為在 26 年、27 年您會看到這一點嗎？那將會很有用。我的第二個問題是關於所得的橋樑。感謝您之前就核心部門給出的非常詳細的答案，看看這個數字是如何達到 20 億歐元的。

But at the same time, James also gave guidance on the corporate center or EUR200 million loss per quarter, which would see suggest you would have much lower revenue contribution from the corporate center, given how much that contributed in Q2 and Q3 of '24. So what's the offset there?

但同時，詹姆斯也給出了企業中心每季虧損 2 億歐元的指導，考慮到企業中心在 2024 年第二季和第三季的貢獻，這表明企業中心的收入貢獻將會低得多。那麼那裡的偏移量是多少呢？

Thanks, Andrew. I think it was slightly distinct the line, but I hope I caught everything. So in reverse order, the corporate center, and I think something interesting to point out on page 5 of the deck, we talked in earlier quarters that there can be some volatility that's created by the corporate center. But I'd said at the time that it ultimately typically nets to 0 over the course of the year. And that was the case in '24, and we expect it to be the case in 25.

謝謝，安德魯。我認為這條線有點明顯，但我希望我抓住了一切。因此，按相反的順序，企業中心，我認為在簡報的第 5 頁上要指出的有趣的一點是，我們在前幾季談到企業中心可能會造成一些波動。但我當時說過，一年下來，淨利最終通常會達到 0。24 年的情況就是這樣，我們預期 25 年的情況也會如此。

So at the very bottom of the chart on the left, you can see that's our current expectation, but some of it is hard to predict, given, for example, valuation and timing differences are market related. But hopefully, that's a good indication. On the cost side, the walk I gave earlier to say it was about one-third of each of business investments, technology and controls was a multiyear view going from our last Investor Day.

因此，在左側圖表的最底部，您可以看到這是我們當前的預期，但其中一些很難預測，例如，估值和時間差異與市場有關。但希望這是一個好的跡象。在成本方面，我之前說過，這大約佔商業投資、技術和控制的三分之一，這是我們從上次投資者日開始的多年觀點。

More recently, what has been the places where we've put additional investment. I'd say the corporate bank, probably the first destination in terms of some plans that we've actually been working on for some time, but now have decided to implement, which is actually relatively broad-based in the corporate bank, but as an acceleration of some hiring and also technology investments that David Linn and his team have identified and are ready to execute and have begun the execution of -- in Private Bank, there are some technology investments that we had been waiting to make decisions on, but feel are important to make, again, to keep pace with the industry where, as you can all see, in your own, I'm sure, personal lives, there's a bit of an arms race going on in terms of the capabilities for digital banking as well as some of the physical infrastructure there and then a little bit a reacceleration of hiring on the RM side in that business.

最近，我們在哪些地方進行了額外投資。我想說，就我們實際上已經開展了一段時間的某些計劃而言，企業銀行可能是第一個目標，但現在我們決定實施這些計劃，這些計劃在企業銀行中實際上具有相對廣泛的基礎，但隨著一些招聘和技術投資的加速，David Linn 和他的團隊已經確定並準備執行並已開始執行 -在私人銀行，有一些技術投資我們一直在等待做出決定，但感覺必須再次做出決定，以跟上行業的步伐，正如大家所看到的，在你們自己的個人生活中，我相信，在數字銀行功能以及一些物理基礎設施方面正在進行一些軍備競賽，然後在該業務中，RM 方面的招聘有所重新加速。

And then lastly, we've talked about O&A. We've -- I think we've largely completed the build-out of O&A, but there are a handful of additional hires that we've made and we've talked about also on the FICC market side, again, all of which we see as supportive of revenue, not just in '25, but in the years beyond.

最後，我們討論了 O&A。我認為我們基本上已經完成了 O&A 的建設，但我們也招募了一些新員工，我們也談到了 FICC 市場方面的問題，我們認為所有這些都將對收入產生支持作用，不僅在 2025 年，而且在未來幾年。

And so I just do want to emphasize that management's decision-making as we went through this most recent plan cycle has been not just about supporting performance in '25, but making sure we're building the company to be sustainably profitable and growing in profitability.

因此，我只想強調，在我們經歷最近的計劃週期時，管理層的決策不僅是為了支持 25 年的業績，還為了確保我們建設的公司能夠持續盈利並不斷增長盈利能力。

In the years beyond, which actually one last thing to say. We look also at the '26 consensus where, as you can imagine, from the chart, especially Christian's page 9 you can see an even greater divergence between what we believe the trajectory of the company is and what is currently in the consensus Mr. Coombs is still connected. Sorry, that last comment was indistinct. Can you repeat?

在以後的歲月裡，其實還有最後一句話要說。我們還研究了 26 個共識，正如您可以想像的那樣，從圖表中，特別是 Christian 的第 9 頁，您可以看到我們認為的公司發展軌跡與目前共識之間存在更大的差異，Coombs 先生仍然保持聯繫。抱歉，最後一則評論不太清楚。你能重複一遍嗎？

Jerry Sigee, BNP Paribas.

法國巴黎銀行的傑瑞‧西吉 (Jerry Sigee)。

I'll make it quick. Just on your ROE target, you're making the same ROE with heavier costs. I guess the offset is the balance sheet efficiency. So effectively less profit but less capital. Is that the right way to think about the math on that?

我會盡快完成。就您的 ROE 目標而言，您以更高的成本實現了相同的 ROE。我猜抵銷的是資產負債表效率。因此實際上利潤減少了，但資本也減少了。這是思考該數學問題的正確方法嗎？

And then secondly, we talked about in an earlier question, the possibility of delaying FRTB and Basel IV implementation. Do you worry about the risk that the US actually cancels it or dilutes it completely? Would that leave you at a competitive disadvantage? Or is this now quite marginal for you as well?

其次，我們在先前的問題中討論了延遲實施 FRTB 和巴塞爾協議 IV 的可能性。您是否擔心美國實際上會取消或完全淡化該協議的風險？這會讓你處於競爭劣勢嗎？或者這對您來說現在也是相當邊緣的？

Sorry, FRTB -- well, sorry, FRTB, look, we're -- there are a number of different aspects of FRTB, how many portfolios you put in standardized versus modeled how the models work and of course, when it's implemented, you have to assume that FRTB once implemented, will be relatively consistent across the world.

抱歉，FRTB——嗯，抱歉，FRTB，你看，我們——FRTB 有許多不同的方面，你投入了多少個標準化的投資組合與模型如何運作，當然，當它實施時，你必須假設 FRTB 一旦實施，將在世界範圍內相對一致。

That's not a given necessarily, but it's a major assumption that we need to make. But -- so yes, we -- what we are concerned about is a disadvantage -- competitive disadvantage if it's implemented in Europe only, and not in the UK and the US, that's a situation that would create a significant disadvantage for us.

這不一定是既定事實，但這是我們需要做出的重要假設。但是——是的，我們——我們擔心的是劣勢——競爭劣勢，如果它只在歐洲實施，而不是在英國和美國實施，這種情況會給我們帶來很大的不利影響。

Let me just chime in there. First of all, it was a good sign and good decision that there was a postponable by one year. actually, the level of attention at the EU commission when it comes to FRTB and providing a level playing field is higher than ever before. It's clearly on the agenda, not obviously of the banks but also of the EU commission. So obviously, I don't know whether at the end of the day, it will be implemented here and not in the US.

讓我也附和一下。首先，延後一年是一個好兆頭和好決定。實際上，歐盟委員會對 FRTB 和提供公平競爭環境的關注程度比以往任何時候都高。這顯然已列入議程，顯然不僅是銀行的議程，也是歐盟委員會的議程。所以顯然，我不知道最終它是否會在這裡實施，而不是在美國。

But at least we have, in my view, a complete level of attention at the EU Commission to listen to us and to make sure that the level playing field is not lost on that point.

但在我看來，歐盟委員會至少會高度重視並聽取我們的意見，確保在這一點上不失去公平的競爭環境。

And to your first point about capital, yes, capital efficiency certainly helped. I mean it's a walk of revenues where we're significantly higher than where we expected to be when we did the IDD with you. actually, credit costs at this point in the cycle also higher than where we expected to be. costs we've talked about and capital is more efficient. I will say AT1 coupons higher than where we'd assumed as well.

關於您關於資本的第一點，是的，資本效率確實有幫助。我的意思是，我們的收入成長明顯高於我們與您進行 IDD 時的預期。實際上，週期中這個階段的信貸成本也高於我們的預期。我們討論過的成本和資本效率更高。我想說 AT1 優惠券也比我們預想的還要高。

So there are a number of different moving parts from the Investor Day 2022 that we can trace through. But the capital efficiency was certainly a supportive lever.

因此，我們可以追溯 2022 年投資者日的許多不同活動部分。但資本效率無疑是一個支撐槓桿。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Mate Nemes, UBS.

瑞銀的 Mate Nemes。

Two quick questions from my side. I wanted to come back to slide 16 and especially you look at the EUR900 million in investments and inflation. I was wondering if you could split that 900 to mandatory investments, it's regulatory or those you feel clearly necessary in the tax stack. You mentioned perhaps the private bank. And some of the discretionary investments into growth, be it the corporate bank, be it the -- that's number one.

我這邊有兩個簡短的問題。我想回到第 16 張投影片，特別是看一下 9 億歐元的投資和通貨膨脹。我想知道您是否可以將這 900 分成強制性投資、監管性投資或您認為在稅收方面明顯必要的投資。您可能提到了私人銀行。一些可自由支配的投資用於成長，無論是企業銀行，還是——這是第一位的。

Number 2 is on loan growth. It seems like you're seeing some improvement in period-end loan balances both in the Corporate Bank and also in the private bank. Could you talk about what you're seeing in your business? Is this just a blip, we shouldn't read too much into it? Or is this perhaps the start of a turning point?

第二個是關於貸款成長。您似乎看到企業銀行和私人銀行的期末貸款餘額都有改善。您能談談您在業務中看到的情況嗎？這是否只是曇花一現，我們不該過度解讀？或者這或許是個轉捩點的開始？

So Mate,, the simple answer to your question is regulatory or controls remained costs are most of, I'll call it, $200 million. year on year in the mandatory bucket. And then there is some additional expense that are still around remediation control improvements that we would see as not mandatory and where there would be some flexibility potentially to push out in time.

所以，夥計，對你的問題，簡單的回答是，監管或控製成本仍然是強制性成本中的大部分，我稱之為 2 億美元，逐年增加。然後還有一些額外的費用仍然與補救控制改進有關，我們認為這些改進不是強制性的，並且可能有一定的靈活性來及時推出。

So a reasonably considerable amount of pressure coming from that. I mentioned inflation, the $100 million of inflation above our expectations, sits on top of inflation that has been running $300 million to $400 million for the past several years. So there's a considerable headwind from those two items.

因此，這會產生相當大的壓力。我提到了通貨膨脹，超出我們預期的 1 億美元的通貨膨脹，是過去幾年 3 億至 4 億美元通貨膨脹的最高值。因此，這兩項因素會帶來相當大的阻力。

And on the financing side, we have seen the FICC financing, as also mentioned by James before, was actually a nice level of increase over 2024. We actually also see that going forward. That's clearly a business which we want to grow, I think where we have a competence like almost nobody else. And given also the international focus on this business, it's clearly growing. On the S and PV side, slightly down, excluding FX.

在融資方面，正如詹姆斯之前提到的，我們看到 FICC 融資實際上比 2024 年有了一個不錯的增長。我們實際上也看到了這一趨勢的發展。這顯然是我們想要發展的業務，我認為我們在這方面擁有幾乎無人能及的能力。而且考慮到國際社會對這項業務的關注，它顯然正在成長。在 S 和 PV 方面，略有下降（不包括 FX）。

Now on the private banking side, it is also an effect of that what we discussed before, i.e., the SVA methodology that we are not entirely happy with all subsegments of that portfolio James mentioned the mortgage portfolio, where we on purpose actually said we don't want to allocate that much capital

現在，在私人銀行方面，這也是我們之前討論過的結果，即 SVA 方法，我們對該投資組合的所有子部分並不完全滿意，James 提到了抵押貸款投資組合，我們故意實際上說我們不想分配那麼多資本

Obviously, also the interest rate development in the run-up to '24 is obviously then also curbing demand a bit in Germany. And on the mid-cap side, -- at the end of the day, you see in this regard, a little bit of two different speeds. If you look at the loan demand of German corporates for investing in Germany, it's down -- is clearly down, and that's also something which hopefully will be addressed when we talk about structural reforms, which are needed in Germany.

顯然，2024年前後的利率變動也在某種程度上抑制了德國的需求。而在中型股方面，最終你會發現，在這方面，有兩種不同的速度。如果你看一下德國企業在德國投資的貸款需求，你會發現它明顯下降了，而當我們談論德國所需的結構性改革時，希望這個問題能得到解決。

But the other hand is that also German corporate is actually taking investments in order to invest internationally, that's clearly up. And that is, again, something where obviously we can position ourselves given our global approach.

但另一方面，德國企業實際上也在進行投資以進行國際投資，這顯然是有利的。顯然，這也是我們能夠根據自己的全球方針進行定位的地方。

(Operator Instructions) Tom Hallett, KBW.

（操作員指示）Tom Hallett，KBW。

Firstly, I suppose I would have thought confidence around the EUR32 billion guidance would have increased given what we've seen year-to-date and then the steepening yield curve. So was there a temptation to raise that EUR32 billion target by any chance? And then secondly, on slide 9, your aspiration is meaningfully above 2024 level, okay? And I just want to know what the drivers of that would be? Should I be splitting that between half profit at half RWA optimization? How should I think about that? Thank you.

首先，考慮到我們今年迄今所看到的情況以及殖利率曲線的陡峭化，我認為對 320 億歐元指引的信心會增加。那麼，是否有可能提高 320 億歐元的目標？其次，在第 9 張投影片上，您的願望明顯高於 2024 年的水平，好嗎？我只是想知道造成這種情況的因素是什麼？我是否應該將其分成一半利潤和一半 RWA 優化？我該如何考慮這個問題？謝謝。

Look, Tom, let me take the first question. look, our confidence in the EUR32 billion, obviously, with the delivery of Q4 and the momentum we see also what we have seen in January has increased that we will meet that. But I think it's not the time now to further raise it. I think it is that what we have done before in revenues we give a number. We have full confidence in it, and now we have to deliver.

湯姆，讓我來回答第一個問題。看，我們對 320 億歐元的信心，顯然，隨著第四季度的交付以及我們在 1 月看到的勢頭的增強，我們將實現這一目標。但我認為現在還不是進一步提高的時候。我認為我們之前在收入方面所做的就是給出一個數字。我們對此充滿信心，現在我們必須實現這一目標。

And it's all about execution. But in that execution capacity, again, how our businesses are positioned, I have full confidence. But at this point in time, I think we should first now deliver Q1 and Q2, and then we can talk about anything else.

一切都取決於執行。但對於執行能力，以及我們的業務定位，我充滿信心。但目前，我認為我們應該先交付 Q1 和 Q2，然後再談論其他任何事情。

Just in terms of the line now, that chart on page 9 is deliberately illustrative in part because with the business units themselves in terms of profitability and and also capital usage or we don't disclose publicly. But you can work out the starting point average from our public accounts is about 1.5%, given all that took place in 2024, we think there's scope to more than double that average level over the next couple of years.

就現在的線條而言，第 9 頁的圖表是故意說明性的，部分原因是業務部門本身的盈利能力和資本使用情況，或者我們不會公開披露。但您可以從我們的公開帳戶中算出起點平均值約為 1.5%，考慮到 2024 年發生的所有事情，我們認為未來幾年該平均值有可能增加一倍以上。

And so that is, again, underscores a little bit the confidence that we have about the trajectory going forward. and the tools that we've built. Now some of that has to do with the costs, especially nonoperating costs from 2024 falling away.

因此，這再次強調了我們對未來發展軌跡以及我們所建構的工具的信心。現在其中一些與成本有關，特別是從 2024 年開始非營運成本的下降。

But a lot of it has to do with the levers for growth that Christian talked about steady cumulative operating leverage across the businesses that we see. And then to your point, some amount of efficiency of the usage of the capital. We don't see though declining from here.

但這在很大程度上與克里斯蒂安談到的成長槓桿有關，也就是我們所看到的各企業穩定的累積經營槓桿。然後回到您的觀點，資本的使用效率有一定程度的提升。我們認為目前的情況不會出現下降。

So I just want to emphasize that if you're at around about $360 million over the years, we would -- especially given CRR3 and the other changes, that number would still grow by make up a number of $20 billion even with the efficiencies that we're putting through. So it is a significant amount of impact from operating leverage over time and all the other levers we've talked about.

所以我只想強調的是，如果這些年來你的支出一直在 3.6 億美元左右，那麼——尤其是考慮到 CRR3 和其他變化，即使我們提高了效率，這個數字仍然會增長到 200 億美元。因此，隨著時間的推移，經營槓桿以及我們討論過的所有其他槓桿都會產生巨大的影響。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Ioana Patriniche for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，這是最後一個問題。現在，我想將會議交還給 Ioana Patriniche，請她做最後總結演講。

Thank you for joining us and for your questions. For any follow-ups, please come through to the Investor Relations team, and we look forward to speaking to our first quarter call.

感謝您的參與與提問。如有任何後續事宜，請聯絡投資者關係團隊，我們期待在第一季電話會議上與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，會議到此結束。感謝您選擇Chorus Call，感謝您參加本次會議。現在您可以斷開線路了。再見。