Camden Property Trust (CPT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to Camden Property Trust fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早上好，歡迎參加 Camden Property Trust 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

I'm Kim Callahan, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

我是投資者關係資深副總裁 Kim Callahan。

Joining me today are Ric Campo, Camden's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Keith Oden, Executive Vice Chairman; and Alex Jessett, President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起出席的還有 Camden 董事長兼執行長 Ric Campo；奧登（Keith Oden），執行副主席；以及總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Today's event is being webcast through the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and a replay will be available shortly after the call ends.

今天的活動將透過我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分進行網路直播，會議結束後不久將提供重播。

And please note this event is being recorded.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to advise everyone that we will be making forward-looking statements based on our current expectations and beliefs. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further information about these risks can be found in our filings with the SEC, and we encourage you to review them. Any forward-looking statements made on today's call represent management's current opinions, and the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements because of subsequent events. As a reminder, Camden's complete fourth quarter 2024 earnings release is available in the Investors section of our website at camdenliving.com, and it includes reconciliations to non-GAAP financial measures which will be discussed on this call.

在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想告訴大家，我們將根據我們當前的期望和信念做出前瞻性的陳述。這些聲明並不能保證未來的表現，也不保證實際結果與預期有重大差異。有關這些風險的更多資訊可以在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到，我們鼓勵您查看這些文件。今天電話會議上做出的任何前瞻性陳述均代表管理層當前的觀點，公司不承擔因後續事件而更新或補充這些陳述的義務。提醒一下，Camden 完整的 2024 年第四季度收益報告可在我們網站 camdenliving.com 的投資者部分查閱，其中包括與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬，將在本次電話會議上討論。

We would like to respect everyone's time and complete our call within one hour. So please limit your initial question to one. Then rejoin the queue if you have follow-up question or additional items to discuss. If we are unable to speak with everyone in the queue today, we'd be happy to respond to additional questions by phone or email after the call concludes.

我們願意尊重每個人的時間並在一小時內完成通話。因此，請將您的初始問題限制為一個。如果您有後續問題或其他事項需要討論，請重新加入佇列。如果我們今天無法與排隊的每個人交談，我們很樂意在通話結束後透過電話或電子郵件回答其他問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Ric Campo.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Ric Campo。

Thanks, Kim. Good morning.

謝謝，金。早安.

The theme of our on hold music this quarter is It's Time To Move On. The late great Tom Petty captured the current sentiment of team Camden in this verse. It's time to move on, it's time to get going. What lies ahead, I have no way of knowing. But under my feet, baby, grass is growing. It's time to move on, it's time to get going. After a few years of waiting somewhat impatiently for better investment opportunities in our markets, we believe 2025 is the year for Camden to move on.

本季等候音樂的主題是「是時候繼續前進了」。已故的偉人湯姆佩蒂 (Tom Petty) 在這首詩中表達了卡姆登隊當前的情緒。是時候繼續前進，是時候出發了。我不知道未來會發生什麼事。但是，寶貝，在我的腳下，草正在生長。是時候繼續前進，是時候出發了。經過幾年焦急地等待市場上出現更好的投資機會後，我們相信 2025 年是卡姆登繼續前進的一年。

In 2024, we saw multifamily deliveries reach a peak level not seen in over 40 years. We expect new supply pressure to lessen throughout 2025, setting the stage for a return to improved revenue and net operating income growth. As the headwinds in recent years turn into tailwinds in 2025 and beyond, there are attractive opportunities for us to continue development starts and to pursue acquisitions.

2024 年，我們將看到多戶型交付量達到 40 多年來未曾見過的峰值水準。我們預計 2025 年全年新的供應壓力將會減輕，為收入和淨營業收入的恢復成長奠定基礎。隨著近年來的逆風在 2025 年及以後轉變為順風，我們將面臨繼續開發和進行收購的誘人機會。

The positive market backdrop positions Camden to begin executing our 2025 strategic plan. The plan follows a similar playbook that we executed after the great financial crisis where we acquired $2.7 billion in apartments with an average age of four years, developed $4.2 billion of apartments, and sold $3.8 billion of apartments with an average age of 24 years.

積極的市場背景使卡姆登開始執行我們的 2025 年策略計畫。該計劃遵循了我們在金融危機後執行的類似的策略，當時我們以 27 億美元的價格收購了平均樓齡為 4 年的公寓，開發了價值 42 億美元的公寓，並出售了價值 38 億美元的公寓，平均樓齡為 24 年。

Recycling capital in this way keeps our portfolio competitive, lowers capital expenses, and accelerates our return on invested capital, driving long term core FFO growth. It's time to move on, it's time to get going.

以這種方式回收資本可維持我們的投資組合競爭力，降低資本支出，並加快我們的投資資本回報，從而推動長期核心 FFO 成長。是時候繼續前進，是時候出發了。

I want to give a big shout-out to team Camden for their outstanding performance in 2024, exceeding our operating budgets by a wide margin despite record supply. Team Camden works smart, implementing new technologies that continue to improve customer experiences and reduce costs. Occupancy and rents in most Sun Belt markets have likely bottomed. Resident retention and customer sentiment remains high.

我要向卡姆登團隊致以最崇高的敬意，感謝他們在 2024 年的出色表現，儘管供應量創下了紀錄，但他們仍大大超出了我們的營運預算。卡姆登團隊工作聰明，採用新技術不斷改善客戶體驗並降低成本。大多數陽光地帶市場的入住率和租金可能已經觸底。居民保留率和顧客情緒仍然很高。

The premium to own versus rent continues to be at historic levels, making apartment homes a more affordable and attractive option for consumers. Wage growth has outpaced rent growth for the past couple of years, strengthening our residents' financial prospects and improving rent to income ratios. Population growth to our Sun Belt markets continues to outpace the nation.

購買相對於租賃的溢價繼續處於歷史水平，使得公寓住宅對消費者來說成為更實惠、更有吸引力的選擇。過去幾年，薪資成長速度一直超過租金成長速度，從而增強了居民的財務前景，並提高了租金與收入的比率。我們的陽光地帶市場的人口成長速度持續超過全國。

Texas and Florida added over 1 million new residents in 2024, which was nearly one-third of the nation's population growth. Each new family needed a place to call home. Texas and Florida are projected again to lead the nation's population growth over the next five years. The states in which Camden operates captured 58.3% of the US population growth. This long-term mega trend continues to produce outsized housing demand in our markets.

2024年，德州和佛羅裡達州新增居民超過100萬，佔全國人口成長的近三分之一。每個新家庭都需要一個可以稱之為家的地方。預計未來五年德州和佛羅裡達州將再次引領美國人口成長。卡姆登營運所在的州佔了美國人口成長的58.3%。這一長期大趨勢繼續在我們的市場中產生巨大的住房需求。

We know it's time to get going, but we will not move on from Camden's why, which as many of you know is to improve the lives of our teammates, our customers, and our stakeholders, one experience at a time.

我們知道現在是時候出發了，但我們不會放棄卡姆登的初衷，正如你們許多人所知，我們的初衷是為了改善我們的隊友、客戶和利益相關者的生活，一次改善一個體驗。

Keith Oden is up next.

接下來是基斯·奧登。

Thanks, Ric.

謝謝，里克。

Camden's same-property revenue growth was 1.3% in 2024, with most of our markets achieving results within a 100 basis points of their original budgets. San Diego, Inland Empire, and Washington D.C. Metro, both outperformed our expectations while Austin and Nashville came in slightly below budget.

2024 年，卡姆登的同店營收成長率為 1.3%，我們大多數市場的表現均在原始預算的 100 個基點以內。聖地牙哥、內陸帝國和華盛頓特區地鐵的表現都超出了我們的預期，而奧斯汀和納許維爾的表現則略低於預算。

For 2025, we anticipate same-property revenue growth of 1% within the majority of our markets falling between 0% and 2%. Our top 5 markets should see revenue growth in the range of 2% to 2.5% and these markets account for over 40% of our budgeted revenue.

到 2025 年，我們預計大多數市場的同店營收將成長 1%，介於 0% 至 2% 之間。我們的前五大市場的收入成長率應在 2% 到 2.5% 之間，這些市場占我們預算收入的 40% 以上。

Several of these markets were top performers last year, including Southern California, Washington D.C. Metro, and Houston, and we expect Tampa to join them as one of our top markets this year. Our next eight markets are budgeted for revenue growth between 0% and 1%, and they comprise over half of our 2025 budgeted revenue. These markets include Denver, Atlanta, Phoenix, Raleigh, Orlando, Southeast Florida, Dallas, and Charlotte.

其中包括南加州、華盛頓特區大都會區和休士頓等多個市場，去年表現優異，我們預計坦帕今年也將加入這些市場的行列，成為我們的頂級市場之一。我們的下八個市場預算收入成長在 0% 到 1% 之間，占我們 2025 年預算收入的一半以上。這些市場包括丹佛、亞特蘭大、鳳凰城、羅利、奧蘭多、東南佛羅裡達、達拉斯和夏洛特。

In our last two markets, Nashville and Austin, which represent 6% of Camden's revenues, these markets were down roughly 3% on revenues last year and expected to remain challenged this year given the continued levels of new supply coming online. We expect them to decline another 0% to 3% this year, but we're cautiously optimistic that they will end 2025 in a better position than where they started.

在我們最後兩個市場納許維爾和奧斯汀，佔卡姆登收入的 6%，這兩個市場去年的收入下降了約 3%，並且由於新供應持續增加，預計今年仍將面臨挑戰。我們預計今年它們將再次下降 0% 至 3%，但我們謹慎樂觀地認為，到 2025 年底它們的地位將比開始時更好。

As many of you know, we have a tradition of assigning letter grades to forecast conditions in our markets at the beginning of each year and ranking our markets in order of their expected performance during 2025. We currently grade our overall portfolio as a B with a stable outlook, slightly better than our B rating with a moderating outlook last year.

大家可能都知道，我們有一個傳統，就是在每年年初用字母等級來預測市場的狀況，並根據 2025 年的預期表現對市場進行排名。我們目前將我們的整體投資組合評為 B，前景穩定，略好於去年的 B 級評級和適度前景。

Our full report card is included as part of our earnings call slide deck, which is incorporated into this webcast and available on our website. The overall economy remains healthy, and we expect our Sun Belt focussed market footprint will allow us to outperform the US outlook.

我們的完整成績單已包含在收益電話會議幻燈片中，並已納入本次網路廣播中並在我們的網站上提供。整體經濟仍然健康，我們預計，以陽光地帶為重點的市場足跡將使我們的表現超越美國。

We expect to see continued in-migration into our markets and strong demand for apartment homes, given the relative unaffordability of buying a single family home. We reviewed supply forecasts from several third-party data providers, and their projections ranged from 160,000 to 230,000 completions across our 15 markets over the course of 2025 compared with 230,000 to 280,000 apartments delivered in 2024.

由於購買獨棟住宅相對難以承受，我們預計會看到持續的移民湧入我們的市場並且對公寓住宅的需求強勁。我們審查了幾家第三方數據提供商的供應預測，他們預測 2025 年我們 15 個市場的竣工公寓數量在 160,000 到 230,000 套之間，而 2024 年交付的公寓數量為 230,000 到 280,000 套。

Despite the wide range of estimates, the unanimous conclusion from each firm was that supply in our markets peaked during 2024 and we'll be declining as we move through to 2025, setting up 2026 to be a below average year for new supply. As a reminder, the supply estimates are totals for each of the MSAs. And not all of this new product will be competitive with our existing portfolio given various submarket locations and price points.

儘管預估範圍很廣，但每家公司都一致得出的結論是，我們市場的供應量在 2024 年達到頂峰，到 2025 年將會下降，這意味著 2026 年的新供應量將低於平均水平。提醒一下，供應估算是每個 MSA 的總數。由於不同的次市場位置和價格點，並非所有新產品都能夠與我們現有的產品組合競爭。

As I mentioned earlier, we expect revenue growth in the range of 2% to 2.5% for our top five markets. Four of Camden's markets received a grade of A- with varying outlooks of improving, stable, or moderating. Tampa earns an A- with an improving outlook, and it should be sea levels, manageable supply, boost in demand that we saw during the fourth quarter of '24.

正如我之前提到的，我們預計前五大市場的收入成長率將在 2% 至 2.5% 之間。卡姆登的四個市場獲得了 A- 評級，前景各不相同，分別為改善、穩定或緩和。坦帕獲得 A- 評級，前景不斷改善，應該是海平面上升、供應可控、需求增加，就像我們在 24 年第四季看到的那樣。

Our Southern California markets would be next with both LA/Orange County and San Diego/Inland Empire expected to finish in the top three again as they did in 2024. Their growth rates are expected to slow a bit during 2025, given slightly higher levels of supply and less of a tailwind from bad debt declining. Thus they received stable to moderating outlooks.

接下來是我們的南加州市場，洛杉磯/奧蘭治縣和聖地亞哥/內陸帝國預計將像 2024 年一樣再次位居前三名。由於供應水準略高且壞帳減少的推動作用減弱，預計 2025 年其成長率將略有放緩。因此他們獲得了穩定至溫和的觀點。

Washington D.C. Metro would also rank as an A- with a moderating outlook. Supply remains in check, particularly in our submarkets in Northern Virginia and Maryland, and we expect revenue growth to be slightly below the 3.7% achieved last year.

華盛頓特區地鐵也將獲得 A- 評級，前景展望中等。供應仍然受到控制，特別是在北維吉尼亞州和馬裡蘭州的子市場，我們預計收入成長將略低於去年的 3.7%。

Houston rounds out the top five with a B+ rating and a stable outlook. Houston ranked number five for revenue growth in 2024, and this year should see more of the same with limited supply and healthy demand. Most of our eight markets received a B grade with one B+ and two B- ratings, and we're budgeting revenue growth of 0% to 1% in all eight.

休士頓以 B+ 評級和穩定展望位列前五。休士頓在 2024 年的營收成長中排名第五，由於供應有限且需求旺盛，今年的營收成長應該會更加強勁。我們的八個市場大部分都獲得了 B 級，其中一個市場為 B+，兩個市場為 B-，我們預計這八個市場的收入增長率為 0% 到 1%。

We rate Denver as a B+ with a moderating outlook and expect their revenue growth to be closer to 1% this year versus 1.6% last year given moderating supply coupled with moderating job growth. Atlanta ranks as a B performer with an improving outlook, mainly due to the progress we've made in reducing bad debt and fraudulent activity. Phoenix and Raleigh are next integrated B with stable outlooks followed by Orlando and Southeast Florida with Bs, but moderating outlooks.

我們對丹佛的評級為 B+，前景趨於溫和，鑑於供應放緩和就業增長放緩，預計今年丹佛的收入增長率將接近 1%，而去年為 1.6%。亞特蘭大的排名為 B 級，前景正在改善，這主要歸功於我們在減少壞帳和詐欺活動方面取得的進展。菲尼克斯和羅利接下來的綜合評級為 B，前景穩定，其次是奧蘭多和東南佛羅裡達，評級為 B，但前景有所緩和。

Phoenix, Raleigh, and Orlando should all see slight declines in supply over the course of 2025, but pricing power in those markets will likely be limited for most of this year. Southeast Florida was one of our top performers in 2024 and we expect to see moderation this year from the above average occupancy levels we achieved there last year.

到 2025 年，鳳凰城、羅利和奧蘭多的供應量都應該會略有下降，但這些市場的定價能力在今年大部分時間內可能會受到限制。東南佛羅裡達州是我們 2024 年表現最好的地區之一，我們預計今年的入住率將比去年高於平均水平的入住率有所緩和。

Dallas earns a B- with a stable outlook again this year, with minimal revenue growth expected in 2025. While Dallas still ranks as one of the nation's top metros for job growth in migration and quality of life, the market is still working through much of the new supply that was delivered over the past year, and Charlotte is rated B- with a moderating outlook.

達拉斯今年的評級為 B-，前景再次穩定，預計 2025 年的收入成長將很小。雖然達拉斯仍然是全美就業成長、移民和生活品質最高的大都市之一，但市場仍在消化過去一年新增供應的大部分內容，而夏洛特的評級為 B-，前景溫和。

The aggregate level of new supply coming online in the Charlotte MSA is still elevated this year, and we expect our main competition will continue to fall in the uptown South End submarket. And finally, Nashville and Austin received the same grades as last year with C and C- respectively. Both markets posted negative revenue growth in 2024 and will likely repeat that in 2025 as new supply continues to pose a challenge.

今年，夏洛特大都會統計區 (MSA) 的新增供應總量仍然較高，我們預計我們的主要競爭對手將繼續集中在上城區的南端子市場。最後，納許維爾和奧斯汀的成績與去年相同，分別為 C 和 C-。兩個市場在 2024 年都出現了收入負增長，並且由於新供應繼續帶來挑戰，2025 年很可能重複這一趨勢。

Our outlook for Nashville is improving, particularly outside of the Downtown CBD area, while Austin's outlook is stable.

我們對納許維爾的前景正在改善，特別是市中心中央商務區以外地區，而奧斯汀的前景則穩定。

Now a few details on our fourth quarter 2024 operating results. Rental rates for the fourth quarter had signed new leases down 4.7%, and renewals up 3.2% for a blended rate of negative 1.2%. Renewal offers for February through April were sent out at an average increase of 4%. And as expected, moveouts to purchase homes remained very low at 9.6% for both the fourth quarter '24 and the full year of 2024.

現在介紹一下我們 2024 年第四季營運表現的一些詳細資訊。第四季的租賃費率下降了 4.7%，而續約率則上漲了 3.2%，綜合費率為負 1.2%。二月至四月的續約優惠平均漲幅為 4%。正如預期的那樣，2024 年第四季和 2024 年全年的購屋遷移率仍保持在非常低的 9.6% 水準。

I'll now turn the call over to Alex Jessett, Camden's President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在我將把電話轉交給卡姆登總裁兼財務長 Alex Jessett。

Thanks, Keith.

謝謝，基斯。

Before I move on to our financial results and guidance, a brief update on our recent real estate activities. During the fourth quarter of 2024, we completed construction on Camden Durham, a 420 unit, $145 million community located in the Raleigh Durham market of North Carolina, which is now almost 80% leased. In Camden Long Meadow Farms, a 188 unit, $72 million single family rental community located in suburban Houston, which is now almost 55% leased.

在我介紹我們的財務表現和指引之前，我先簡單介紹一下我們最近的房地產活動。2024 年第四季度，我們完成了卡姆登達勒姆 (Camden Durham) 的建設，這是一個位於北卡羅來納州羅利達勒姆市場的擁有 420 個單元、耗資 1.45 億美元的社區，目前出租率已接近 80%。位於休士頓郊區的卡姆登長草地農場 (Camden Long Meadow Farms) 是一個擁有 188 個單位、耗資 7,200 萬美元的獨戶租賃社區，目前出租率已接近 55%。

Additionally, we continued leasing at Camden Woodmill Creek, a 189 unit, $72 million single family rental community also located in suburban Houston. Subsequent to quarter end, we acquired for approximately $68 million Camden Leander, a newly constructed 352 unit suburban Austin community, which is currently 85% occupied. This community was purchased at a stabilized yield of 5%.

此外，我們繼續在卡姆登伍德米爾溪 (Camden Woodmill Creek) 進行租賃，這是一個擁有 189 個單位、價值 7200 萬美元的獨戶租賃社區，也位於休士頓郊區。季度末之後，我們以約 6,800 萬美元的價格收購了卡姆登利安德 (Camden Leander)，這是一座新建的擁有 352 個單元的奧斯汀郊區社區，目前入住率為 85%。此社區是以5%的穩定收益率購買的。

Turning to financial results. Last night, we reported core funds from operations for the fourth quarter of 2024 of $190.4 million or $1.73 per share, $0.03 ahead of the midpoint of our prior quarterly guidance. This outperformance results from $0.005 in higher other income and $0.025 in lower operating expenses driven entirely by lower than anticipated core property insurance claims and lower final tax valuations.

談到財務結果。昨晚，我們報告了 2024 年第四季的核心營運資金為 1.904 億美元，即每股 1.73 美元，比我們先前季度指引的中位數高出 0.03 美元。這一優異表現源於其他收入增加 0.005 美元以及營運費用減少 0.025 美元，這完全是由於核心財產保險索賠低於預期以及最終稅收估值較低。

For 2024, we delivered same-store revenue growth of 1.3%, expense growth of 1.8%, and NOI growth of 1.1%. Our 1.8% full year expense growth was driven primarily by declines of 0.2% and 16.9% on property taxes and insurance respectively.

展望 2024 年，我們將同店營收成長 1.3%、支出成長 1.8%、淨營業收入成長 1.1%。我們全年支出成長 1.8% 主要是因為房產稅和保險費分別下降 0.2% 和 16.9%。

You can refer to page 24 of our fourth quarter supplemental package for details on the key assumptions driving our 2025 financial outlook. One of the key drivers of this year's guidance is an uptick in acquisitions and dispositions with a midpoint of $750 million anticipated for each.

您可以參考我們第四季度補充資料第 24 頁，以了解影響我們 2025 年財務展望的關鍵假設的詳細資訊。今年指引的主要驅動因素之一是收購和處置數量的增加，預計每筆交易的中位數為 7.5 億美元。

Operating at geographically diversified portfolio helps ensure consistent cash flow for our investors. Over the next few years, consistent with past messaging, we will seek greater market balance by reducing our exposure to our two largest markets, D.C. Metro and Houston, through a combination of select dispositions and growth in our other existing markets, with a target of no one market representing more than 10% of our net operating income and no market representing less than 4% of our net operating income by the end of 2027.

經營地域多元化的投資組合有助於確保我們的投資者獲得穩定的現金流。在接下來的幾年中，與過去的信息一致，我們將透過選擇性配置和我們其他現有市場的成長相結合的方式，減少對兩個最大市場華盛頓都會區和休士頓的投資，尋求更大的市場平衡，目標是到 2027 年底，沒有一個市場占我們淨營業收入的 10% 以上，沒有一個市場占我們淨營業收入的 4% 以下。

Additionally, we will dispose of older, more capital intensive assets and redeploy the proceeds into newer, faster growing communities. As we execute this plan, depending upon the location and age of the disposed communities, there may be 0 basis points to 100 basis points negative FFO yield differential for these matching transactions while we expect AFFO yields to be relatively flat.

此外，我們將處置較舊的、資本密集的資產，並將收益重新部署到更新、發展更快的社區。當我們執行該計劃時，根據處置社區的位置和年齡，這些匹配交易的 FFO 收益率差異可能為 0 個基點到 100 個基點，而我們預計 AFFO 收益率將相對穩定。

The end result will be a more geographically diverse, newer, and faster growing portfolio. We expect our 2025 core FFO per share to be in the range of $6.60 to $6.90 with the midpoint of $6.75 representing a $0.10 per share decrease from our 2024 results. This decrease is anticipated to result primarily from an approximate $0.06 per share increase in core FFO related to the growth in operating income from our development, non-same store, and retail communities resulting primarily from the incremental contribution from our five development communities in Lease-Up during 2024 and/or 2025, a $0.01 per share net increase from the timing of our assumed $750 million of offsetting acquisitions and dispositions.

最終結果將是一個地域更加多元、更新且成長更快的投資組合。我們預計 2025 年每股核心 FFO 將在 6.60 美元至 6.90 美元之間，中間值為 6.75 美元，比 2024 年的業績每股減少 0.10 美元。預計這一下降主要由於核心 FFO 每股增加約 0.06 美元，這與我們的開發、非同店和零售社區的營業收入增長有關，這主要源於我們在 2024 年和/或 2025 年租賃方面的五個開發社區的增量貢獻，與我們假設的 7.5 億美元抵消收購和淨處置的時間相比，每股處置 0.01 美元。

For tax efficiency purposes and to facilitate reverse 1031 exchanges, we are anticipating completing the acquisitions on average two months before their matching disposition. This core FFO per share is offset $0.10 per share increase in interest expense attributable to $250 million of higher average anticipated debt balances outstanding in 2025 as compared to 2024 and lower levels of capitalized interest as we complete certain development communities.

為了提高稅收效率並促進反向 1031 交換，我們預計在匹配處置前平均兩個月完成收購。該核心每股 FFO 抵消了每股 0.10 美元的利息支出增加，該增加歸因於 2025 年預計平均未償還債務餘額比 2024 年增加 2.5 億美元，並且隨著我們完成某些開發社區，資本化利息水平較低。

The higher debt balances result in part from the timing of our acquisition and disposition activity. For 2025, we are anticipating $485 million on average outstanding under our line of credit with an average rate of approximately 4.9%, $0.04 per share decrease in interest and other income due to minimal cash balances in 2025, and an approximate $0.03 per share decrease in core FFO resulting primarily from the combination of higher general and administrative and property management expenses.

債務餘額較高部分是由於我們的收購和處置活動的時機所致。到 2025 年，我們預計信用額度下的平均未償還金額為 4.85 億美元，平均利率約為 4.9%，由於 2025 年現金餘額極少，利息和其他收入將減少 0.04 美元/股，核心 FFO 將減少約 0.03 美元/股，這主要歸因於行政和物業費用的一般行政增加。

At the midpoint, we are expecting flat same store net operating income with revenue growth of 1% and expense growth of 3%. Each 1% increase in same-store NOI is approximately $0.09 per share in core FFO. Our 2025 same store revenue growth midpoint of 1% is based upon a flat earning at the end of 2024 and an effectively flat loss to lease. We expect a 1.4% increase in market rental rates from December 31, 2024, to December 31, 2025.

中間值是，我們預期同店淨營業收入持平，營收成長 1%，支出成長 3%。同店淨營運利潤每增加 1%，核心營運現金流每股收益就會增加約 0.09 美元。我們預計 2025 年同店營收成長中位數為 1%，這是基於 2024 年底獲利持平以及租賃損失基本持平。我們預計，從 2024 年 12 月 31 日到 2025 年 12 月 31 日，市場租金將上漲 1.4%。

Recognizing half of this annual market rental rate increase results in a budgeted 70 basis point increase in 2025 net market rents. We are assuming occupancy averages 95.4% in 2025, a 20 basis point annual improvement, and that bad debt averages 70 basis points in 2025, a 10 basis point annual improvement. When combining our 70 basis point increase in net market rents with our 20 basis point increase in occupancy and our 10 basis point decline in bad debt, we are budgeting 2025 rental income growth of 1%.

認識到年度市場租金率增長的一半將導致2025年淨市場租金預算增加70個基點。我們假設 2025 年的平均入住率為 95.4%，每年提高 20 個基點，而 2025 年的平均壞帳率為 70 個基點，每年提高 10 個基點。將淨市場租金 70 個基點的成長、入住率 20 個基點的成長以及壞帳減少 10 個基點結合起來，我們預計 2025 年租金收入將成長 1%。

Rental income encompasses approximately 90% of our total rental revenues. The remaining 10% of our property revenues is primarily comprised of utility rebilling and other fees, and is anticipated to grow at a similar level as our rental income. Our 2025 same-store expense growth midpoint of 3% does not contain any significant category outliers.

租金收入約占我們總租金收入的 90%。我們剩餘的 10% 房地產收入主要包括公用事業重複計費和其他費用，預計將與我們的租金收入保持類似的成長水準。我們 2025 年同店費用成長中點為 3%，不包含任何顯著的類別異常值。

Page 24 of our supplemental package also details other guidance assumptions, including the plan for up to $675 million of development starts spread throughout the year, and approximately $285 million of total 2025 development spend. Non-core FFO adjustments for the year are anticipated to be approximately $0.10 per share and are primarily legal expenses and expense transaction pursuit costs.

我們的補充方案第 24 頁也詳細說明了其他指導假設，包括全年高達 6.75 億美元的開發啟動計劃，以及 2025 年總開發支出約 2.85 億美元。預計本年度非核心 FFO 調整約為每股 0.10 美元，主要是法律費用和費用交易追蹤成本。

We expect core FFO per share for the first quarter of 2025 to be within the range of $1.66 to $1.70. The midpoint of $1.68 represents a $0.05 per share decrease from the fourth quarter of 2024, which is primarily the result of an approximate $0.04 per share sequential decline in same store NOI driven by an increase in sequential same store expenses resulting from the timing of quarterly tax refunds, the reset of our annual property tax accrual on January 1 of each year and other expense increases primarily attributable to typical seasonal trends, including the timing of on-site salary increases and an approximate $0.015 per share increase in interest expense from our higher debt balances resulting in part from our actual and anticipated first quarter acquisitions.

我們預計 2025 年第一季每股核心 FFO 將在 1.66 美元至 1.70 美元之間。 1.68 美元的中點比 2024 年第四季度下降了 0.05 美元/股，這主要是由於同店淨營業利潤環比下降約 0.04 美元/股，其原因是由於季度退稅時間導致同店費用環比增加、每年 1 月 1 日重新設定年度財產稅應計額以及其他費用增加成本我們實際且預期的第一季收購。

This $0.055 per share cumulative decrease in quarterly sequential core FFO is partially offset by an approximate $0.005 per share increase in core FFO related to our first quarter acquisition activity. We are anticipating blended lease tradeouts for the first quarter to be relatively flat. At year end, approximately 80% of our debt was fixed rate. We had less than $200 million outstanding on our $1.2 billion credit facility, no maturities over the next 12 months, and less than $250 million left to fund under our existing development pipeline.

本季核心 FFO 累積減少 0.055 美元，但與我們第一季的收購活動相關的核心 FFO 每股約 0.005 美元的增加，部分抵銷了這一減少。我們預計第一季的混合租賃交易將相對穩定。截至年底，我們約 80% 的債務是固定利率。我們的 12 億美元信貸額度中未償還金額不到 2 億美元，未來 12 個月內沒有到期債務，現有開發管道下可供融資的金額不到 2.5 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong, with net debt to EBITDA at 3.8 times.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，淨負債與 EBITDA 比率為 3.8 倍。

At this time, we'll open the call up to questions.

現在，我們將開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

So I was just hoping you could provide some more color on your blend assumptions. Can you talk about what you're thinking in a new and renewal lease growth throughout the year and how do you think it trends first quarter to first quarter?

所以我只是希望您能對您的混合假設提供更多解釋。您能談談您對全年新租和續租成長的看法嗎？

Sure, absolutely. So the way I would look at it for the full year is we're anticipating somewhere between 1% to 2% on a blend, and if you look at new leases, new leases will be slightly negative for the full year, and renewals will probably be in the high 3% range. If I look at how that progresses throughout the year, obviously, we are very optimistic about the way 2025 is going to unfold, in particular with the absorption of the new supply. And so we're anticipating that by the time we get to the third quarter, this is when we'll start to see positive new leases and then it will continue from that point on.

當然，絕對是如此。因此，我對全年的看法是，我們預計混合成長率在 1% 到 2% 之間，如果看一下新租約，全年新租約將略為負值，而續約率可能在 3% 的高位。如果我觀察全年的進展情況，顯然，我們對 2025 年的發展方向非常樂觀，尤其是新供應的吸收。因此，我們預計，到第三季時，我們將開始看到積極的新租約，並且這種情況將從那時起持續下去。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德‧赫弗恩 (Brad Heffern)。

Are you seeing signs right now of the impact of supply fading on the ground and if so, what are those signs?

現在您是否看到供應影響在實際中逐漸減弱的跡象？

So we absolutely are. And the largest indicator that we're looking at is the signed new lease improvement throughout the first quarter. And although we are not going to give quarterly -- monthly new lease and renewal data, I will tell you that we're very encouraged by what we're seeing so far in January in terms of signed new lease improvements.

我們絕對是這樣的。我們正在關注的最大指標是第一季簽署的新租約改善協議。雖然我們不會提供季度或月度新租約和續約數據，但我要告訴大家的是，就一月份簽署的新租約改進而言，我們看到的情況令我們感到非常鼓舞。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫·薩誇（Steve Sakwa），Evercore ISI。

This is Sanket on for Steve.

這是 Sanket 為史蒂夫表演的。

I had a question around transaction guidance. So after a muted couple of years from transaction markets standpoint, it seems like things are opening up and you're guiding to $750 million of acquisitions and dispositions. Can you help us provide more color on this in terms of timing, cap rate, what are the type of buyers and seller pools you're seeing in the market today?

我對交易指導有疑問。因此，從交易市場的角度來看，經過幾年的沉寂之後，情況似乎正在好轉，並且你們正在引導價值 7.5 億美元的收購和處置。您能否從時間、資本化率等方面幫助我們對此提供更多了解，以及您目前在市場上看到的買家和賣家類型是什麼？

Sure. So when you think about the last couple of years, it's been a very muted sales transaction markets and what's happened primarily is that buyers and sellers have been sort of at odds, right? Sellers want high prices and buyers don't want to pay high prices. And so that's created a standoff between buyers and sellers. So the transaction volume has been significantly lower in the last couple of years. But I think what's happened now is that with rates continuing to be higher for longer, it sort of put pressure on the sellers, and then also on the buyer side, you have a pretty constructive view of the future.

當然。所以當你回想過去幾年時，你會發現銷售交易市場一直非常低迷，主要發生的情況是買家和賣家之間出現了分歧，對嗎？賣家想要高價，買家不想付高價。這導致買家和賣家之間的僵局。因此過去幾年的交易量明顯下降。但我認為現在的情況是，隨著利率在較長時間內持續走高，這給賣家帶來了壓力，同時對買家而言，他們對未來抱有相當積極的看法。

Most supply has peaked for sure and 2025 is just going to be a better year than 2024 from a accelerating growth perspective. And then in '26, '27, you're going to have some pretty outsized rental increases. So what that's allowed buyers to do is to increase their pro forma rent gross and feel pretty confident about that so that they can actually pay maybe a higher price than they thought before because the inflection point of positive second derivatives on rental rates, it's going to happen sometime during 2025.

大多數供應肯定已達到峰值，從加速成長的角度來看，2025 年將比 2024 年更好。然後在'26年和'27年，租金將會出現相當大的成長。因此，買家可以增加他們的預期租金總額，並對此非常有信心，這樣他們實際上可以支付比之前想像的更高的價格，因為租金率的正二階導數的拐點將發生在 2025 年的某個時候。

So what that's led to then is a sort of a closing of the gap, if you want to call it that, between the buyers and the sellers. And from our perspective, since we're going to be recycling capital, we're going to be buying and then as Alex pointed out earlier, we're going to be selling to fund those acquisitions. And as we did in our last big acquisition/ development disposition cycle, we thought -- we think that this next couple of years is going to be pretty much like it was sort of after the great financial crisis and where you have a lot of transactions that have to move and you're going to have a lot of activity.

所以這導致了買家和賣家之間差距的縮小（如果你願意這麼稱呼的話）。從我們的角度來看，因為我們要回收資本，所以我們將進行購買，然後正如亞歷克斯之前指出的那樣，我們將出售以資助這些收購。正如我們在上一次大型收購/開發處置週期中所做的那樣，我們認為——我們認為未來幾年將非常類似於金融危機之後的情況，需要進行大量交易，並且會有大量活動。

And I think that it sets up really well for us to recycle capital and to get more aggressive on the acquisition side, and the development side going forward.

我認為這對我們循環利用資本以及在未來的收購和開發方面採取更積極的行動起到了很好的作用。

Jeff Spector, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特（Jeff Spector）。

Ric, I'll ask a follow up to that point. I mean post world financial crisis, there was a lot of distress. And as of today, I'd say we're hearing mixed things or not really hearing distress or what do you -- I guess what are you seeing and hearing that gives you confidence that there will be similar distress that Camden can take advantage of?

瑞克，我會就這一點繼續追問。我的意思是，世界金融危機爆發後，出現了許多困境。而截至今天，我想說我們聽到的消息是褒貶不一的，或者沒有真正聽到痛苦的消息，或者您怎麼想——我猜您看到和聽到的是什麼讓您有信心會有類似的痛苦，而卡姆登可以利用它？

Sure. Well, when you go back to the financial crisis, there was moderate distress, but it was primarily in '08, maybe '09 and '10. After that, there's really no distress. I mean if you think about what happened, the Fed took interest rates to zero, and the FDIC and the Federal Reserve propped up the banks by saying they didn't have to mark to market construction loans. And so that eliminated a lot of the distress that people thought was going to happen after the great financial crisis.

當然。嗯，回顧金融危機，當時確實存在中等程度的困擾，但主要發生在2008年，也許是2009年和2010年。此後，就真的沒有任何痛苦了。我的意思是，如果你想想當時發生了什麼，美聯儲將利率降至零，而聯邦存款保險公司和美聯儲則通過表示銀行不必按市價計價建築貸款來支撐銀行。這樣就消除了人們認為在金融危機之後會發生的許多困境。

And today, the difference today during the GFC was that as a result of the GFC, leverage is just over leveraging, which is not part of the equation today. And banks have significantly decreased their commercial real estate exposure and they've also diversified their commercial real estate exposure.

而今天，與全球金融危機期間的不同之處在於，由於全球金融危機，槓桿率已超過槓桿率，而這已不再是當今方程式的一部分。銀行已大幅減少了對商業房地產的投資，並實現了商業房地產投資的多元化。

So banks are stronger. Borrowers are stronger. And you're in a situation where there's no real pressure on borrowers or the banks to force people to sell. And that, of course, is what creates distress.

因此銀行更加強大。借款人實力更強。而目前的情況是，借款人或銀行並沒有面臨強迫人們出售房屋的真正壓力。而這當然就是造成痛苦的原因。

Now there's clearly distress in the sort of C&D part of the market where you have syndicators raising money online and through, GoFundMe pages. We're buying pretty low-quality properties and leveraging them up and those -- there's been some significant stories about that kind of distress, but not in the institutional investor quality space.

現在，市場上的 C&D 部分顯然陷入了困境，因為有辛迪加透過線上和 GoFundMe 頁面籌集資金。我們購買的是品質相當低的資產，並利用槓桿來提高它們的價值——關於此類困境有一些重要的故事，但並非發生在機構投資者品質領域。

I mean today, investors are -- the borrower, the sellers today are not financially stressed. So I don't think we're going to get, quote-unquote, distress out there. What we're going to get is just better pricing that we had during the peak, right, when cap rates were in the 3s. The cap rates are going to be 4.5 to 5 and with a better growth prospect when your pro forma going forward. So you can get your IRRs up into the 7s on an unleveraged basis.

我的意思是今天，投資者——借款人，賣家今天沒有財務壓力。所以我不認為我們會在那裡遇到所謂的痛苦。我們將獲得的只是比高峰期更好的定價，當時資本化率為 3%。資本化率將會達到 4.5 到 5，當您的未來預測時，成長前景會更好。因此您可以在無槓桿的基礎上將 IRR 提高到 7%。

So it's a little different today. So I don't think we're going to have distress in the market and buy all these great deals. On the other hand, the deals are good, when you look at our Camden Leander transaction. It's a project in lease-up in Austin, very complicated market. Obviously, Austin has more supply than most. The -- we're buying the property at 15% below the replacement cost. Rents are depressed. And once the supply gets worked out in Austin over the next year or so, you're going to see outsized growth in Austin.

所以今天有些不同。因此，我認為我們不會在市場陷入困境時購買所有這些優惠產品。另一方面，如果你看看我們的卡姆登利安德交易，你會發現這些交易都很棒。這是奧斯汀的租賃項目，市場非常複雜。顯然，奧斯汀的供應量比大多數城市都多。我們以低於重置成本 15% 的價格購買該房產。租金低迷。一旦奧斯汀的供應在未來一年左右解決，你就會看到奧斯汀的超額成長。

It's -- when you look at Austin, in terms of its population growth, it's like number one in America on a percentage basis for population growth. So Austin's not -- Austin's going to be great in 2026 to '27 and 2028. So we're able to buy below replacement cost, right, go build there, but why build when I can buy it below replacement costs and then be positioned in the marketplace to have outsized growth to drive that cap rate up and to a really good number?

就人口成長而言，奧斯汀在美國人口成長百分比中排名第一。所以奧斯汀在 2026 年至 2027 年以及 2028 年都會很棒。因此，我們能夠以低於重置成本的價格購買，對吧，去那裡建造，但是，當我可以以低於重置成本的價格購買，然後在市場上定位，實現超額增長，從而將資本化率推高到一個非常好的數字時，為什麼還要建造呢？

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾聖朱斯特（Haendel St. Juste）、瑞穗。

So I'm hoping you could walk us through the quarter a bit, and give us some color on how the portfolio performed in terms of the new lease rate expectations. They seem to be a bit more resilient in the fourth quarter versus your peers. And with the stability of new lease rates and improvement in January occupancy, I think above 95%, it seem like you could push rate a bit sooner this year than we might have previously expected.

因此，我希望您能向我們簡要介紹本季度的情況，並向我們介紹一下投資組合在新的租賃利率預期方面的表現。與其他同行相比，他們在第四季度似乎更具韌性。而且隨著新租賃率的穩定和 1 月入住率的提高（我認為入住率將超過 95%），今年的入住率提升似乎可能比我們之前預期的要早一些。

So maybe give some color on how you think what new lease rates are embedded in the first quarter guide you provided, but broadly, the sense of how much perhaps the improvement or stability you're seeing here can result in perhaps you perhaps being a bit more aggressive on that front.

因此，也許您可以就您提供的第一季指南中包含的新租賃率給出一些說明，但從廣義上講，您在這裡看到的改善或穩定程度可能會導致您在這方面採取更積極的態度。

Yeah. So Haendel, we did have -- our fourth quarter was actually a little bit better than we thought it would be, and it was pretty broad across all of our markets. And it's not in terms of expectations for next year. I think Alex walked through those in his commentary regarding the what the full year guidance is, et cetera. I think that the improvement that we're seeing is just stickiness around occupancy rates across our entire portfolio which allows us to do, and our pricing model to do what it does best, which is find strength and then price accordingly.

是的。所以 Haendel，我們的第四季度表現實際上比我們想像的要好一些，並且在我們所有的市場都表現得相當不錯。這並不是針對明年的預期。我認為亞歷克斯在他的關於全年指導等等的評論中已經提到了這些內容。我認為，我們所看到的改善只是整個投資組合的入住率的粘性，這使我們能夠做到，並且我們的定價模型也能夠做到它最擅長的事情，即找到優勢，然後相應地定價。

So I think it's really good operating fundamentals, had a good fourth quarter and as Alex mentioned, it's carried over -- it looks like it's carried over into January. So last year, we had a -- we started out really strong in January, a good month. We -- that blend into some optimism around here and maybe other places for what that -- what felt for maybe the first quarter of the full year. It turned out that wasn't really the case and we had a kind of an air pocket in February of last year.

因此，我認為公司的營運基本面非常好，第四季度業績表現良好，而且正如亞歷克斯所提到的，這種業績看起來已經延續到了 1 月。所以去年，我們 1 月的開局非常強勁，是一個好月份。我們 — — 這與這裡以及其他地方的一些樂觀情緒融為一體 — — 這也許是全年第一季度的感受。但事實證明並非如此，去年二月我們就遇到了氣泡現象。

And we don't think we're going to see that this year. Don't anticipate that. But so far, so good. A good month in January for sure, and we expect that it's going to continue to improve throughout the year because we're -- every month that goes by, we're making a -- taking another big chunk out of the supply bubble that we've been fighting and continue to have in front of us, but I think things on the horizon back half of 2025 looks to be pretty constructive for us.

我們認為今年不會出現這種情況。別指望那件事。但到目前為止，一切都很好。一月份肯定是個好月份，我們預計全年情況會繼續改善，因為每個月我們都在努力消除我們一直在對抗的、並且繼續擺在我們面前的供應泡沫，但我認為 2025 年下半年的情況對我們來說是相當有利的。

But I think more importantly, when you get past the -- '25 is kind of a transition year between getting back to normal -- more normal supply demand dynamics but when you look out to 2026 and what's happening and what's been happening on starts and what's likely to happen on completions in '26 and '27, I think we're set up for one of those two or three year runs that they're going to be pretty impressive for the entire multifamily sector.

但我認為更重要的是，當你度過 2025 年，這是一個恢復正常的過渡年，供需動態更加正常，但當你展望 2026 年，看看現在的情況，看看開工情況，看看 2026 年和 2027 年可能竣工的情況，我想我們已經為未來兩三年的運行狀態，這對整個多戶住宅來說將非常令人印象深刻。

I think where Camden's located in our markets, we're going to benefit more than most from that.

我認為，卡姆登在我們的市場中的位置，將使我們比大多數人從中受益更多。

Eric Wolfe, Citi.

花旗銀行的艾瑞克‧沃爾夫 (Eric Wolfe)。

It seems like based on your interest expense guidance, you're front loading the acquisitions. Can you just talk about the rationale around the strategy? And also you mentioned I think 0 bps to 100 bps of potential GAAP dilution from this activity and that this transaction activity could last through 2027. So should we be building in our models like say 50 bps of GAAP dilution on $750 million of transactions for the next couple of years, or is that sort of not what you meant by the sort of this continuing through 2027?

看起來，根據您的利息支出指導，您正在預先進行收購。您能談談該策略的原理嗎？您還提到，我認為該活動可能導致 0 基點到 100 基點的 GAAP 稀釋，而該交易活動可能會持續到 2027 年。那麼，我們是否應該在我們的模型中建立這樣一種假設：未來幾年，7.5 億美元的交易將出現 50 個基點的 GAAP 稀釋，或者這是否不是您所說的持續到 2027 年的預期？

Yeah. So we'll hit both parts of it.

是的。因此我們會涉及這兩個部分。

Absolutely. The first thing is, is that we anticipate that we're going to buy before we sell and we're doing that for tax efficiency purposes. We'll do these in reverse 1031 exchanges. The second part that you have to look at is what we're looking at for 2025 is the dispositions that we will first complete will be our older, our more capital intensive assets. And so because of that, you're probably going to see a larger spread between FFO on the assets we're buying and FFO on the assets we're selling.

絕對地。首先，我們預期會先買後賣，這樣做是為了提高稅收效率。我們將在反向 1031 交換中完成這些操作。您必須考慮的第二部分是我們對 2025 年的展望，我們首先要完成的處置將是我們較老的、資本密集的資產。因此，您可能會看到我們購買的資產的 FFO 與我們出售的資產的 FFO 之間的差距更大。

I think it's important to note that on an AFFO basis, that spread will be very tight, but on an FFO basis, it's going to be a little bit wider, call it around the 100 basis point range for what we're going to look at for 2025. If you think about what happens as we go throughout '26 and '27 completing our plan, we're going to get to a point in time where we're going to be trading very comparable assets, but just not in the geography where we want them.

我認為值得注意的是，在 AFFO 基礎上，該利差將非常小，但在 FFO 基礎上，該利差將會稍微大一些，預計在 2025 年將達到 100 個基點左右。如果你想像一下我們在 26 年和 27 年完成計劃時會發生什麼，我們將會到達一個時間點，我們將交易非常相似的資產，但不是在我們想要的地理位置。

So for instance, we talked quite a bit about how we'll lower our exposure in D.C. and we'll lower our exposure in Houston. If we're going to sell a community in D.C. in '26 and in '27, I think likely, that it will be a particular community that will probably trade at a pretty good cap rate, and we'll be trading that for a community in, call it Nashville or call it Austin, that will also be trading it at a comparable cap rate.

舉例來說，我們討論了很多關於如何降低我們在華盛頓特區的曝光度以及如何降低我們在休士頓的曝光度。如果我們要在 26 年和 27 年出售華盛頓特區的一個社區，我認為很有可能，這將是一個以相當不錯的資本化率進行交易的特定社區，我們將把它交易給納許維爾或奧斯汀的一個社區，這些社區也將以相當的資本化率進行交易。

So I don't think it's fair to take the dilution that you're seeing in '25 and extrapolate that into '26 and '27.

因此，我認為將 25 年看到的稀釋度推斷到 26 年和 27 年是不公平的。

Yeah. The other thing I would add to this is that if you look at the last time we did this, where we did $2.7 billion of acquisitions and $3.8 billion of dispositions, at that time, we were budgeting over a 100 basis point negative spread, turned out to be flat. And so once the market starts getting attuned to higher revenue growth and higher NOI growth, those cap rates are going to compress and older property cap rates are going to converge to newer property cap rates.

是的。我想補充的另一件事是，如果你看看我們上次這樣做的時候，我們進行了 27 億美元的收購和 38 億美元的處置，當時，我們的預算超過了 100 個基點的負利差，結果持平了。因此，一旦市場開始適應更高的收入成長和更高的淨營運收入成長，這些資本化率就會壓縮，舊的房地產資本化率就會趨同於新的房地產資本化率。

And then part of the challenge is that if you look at the -- or part of the dilution issue is not that it's permanent dilution because of the spread but when you look at the Camden Leander transaction, it was 84% occupied. It's not finished, right? It's not finished leasing or stabilized.

然後，部分挑戰在於，如果你看一下—或部分稀釋問題，它不是由於價差而導致的永久性稀釋，而是當你查看卡姆登利安德交易時，發現它的入住率為 84%。還沒完成吧？租賃尚未完成或尚未穩定。

So you're going to have more dilution when we're buying properties that are not necessarily fully leased up yet. And so that's part of that equation, but I expect the transaction market through the middle of the year will start gaining steam, which means that you'll have the $300 billion or $400 billion of capital that's still waiting in the wings, entering in the market. So cap rates, I think, are going to be tighter and the spreads will be tighter towards the back of the year, but we're going to -- we have budgeted this 100 basis points, but I'm sure we'll do better.

因此，當我們購買尚未完全出租的房產時，股權會被進一步稀釋。這是等式的一部分，但我預計到今年年中交易市場將開始升溫，這意味著將有 3,000 億美元或 4,000 億美元的資本等待進入市場。因此，我認為，資本化率將會更加緊張，利差也將在今年年底更加緊張，但我們已經預算了 100 個基點，但我相信我們會做得更好。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場部的 Austin Wurschmidt。

So keeping the conversation going on your portfolio management objectives and Alex, you hit on this with your comments about selling down in D.C. and Houston, which you guys have talked about. I guess what's kind of the right exposure for those top markets? Are there any new markets that you could enter with this strategic plan? And then I guess just given the constructive outlook for fundamentals in the next few years, what would it take for you to lean into your balance sheet capacity instead of kind of the tax efficient fair trade strategy?

因此，請繼續討論您的投資組合管理目標，亞歷克斯，您在評論華盛頓和休斯頓的出售時提到了這一點，您已經討論過了。我猜想對於這些頂級市場來說什麼樣的曝光才是正確的？透過這項策略計劃您可以進入哪些新市場？然後我想，鑑於未來幾年基本面的建設性前景，您需要做些什麼才能依靠資產負債表能力而不是稅收效率公平貿易策略？

Yeah. So what I said on the call is that by the end of '27, we do not want to have any one market that's over 10% of NOI. And so if you think about it, there's only two markets that we have today that are over that, which is D.C. Metro and Houston. So that's where we'll be bringing that down. Additionally, it just doesn't make a ton of sense to us to have a market that has less than 4% of NOI.

是的。因此，我在電話會議上說，到 27 年底，我們不希望任何一個市場佔據 NOI 的 10% 以上。如果你仔細想想，今天只有兩個市場超過這個水平，那就是華盛頓地鐵和休士頓。所以我們要把它降低到這個程度。此外，對我們來說，NOI 低於 4% 的市場根本沒有意義。

The only market that falls into that category today is Nashville. So we'll be bringing that up and that will obviously be one of our main target markets. When you think about leaning into our balance sheet, absolutely. The reason why we have a 3.8 times debt to EBITDA, which is number one in the multifamily sector, is because it gives us capacity and ability to take advantage of opportunities.

如今唯一屬於這一類別的市場是納許維爾。因此我們會提出這一點，這顯然會成為我們的主要目標市場之一。當你考慮依靠我們的資產負債表時，絕對是如此。我們的債務與 EBITDA 比率達到 3.8 倍，在多戶型住宅領域位居第一，是因為它賦予了我們能力和抓住機會的能力。

If there are opportunities there, where we can create some real value for our shareholders and increase a little bit of leverage, but still stay below the 5 times level and we can -- and take advantage of some great opportunities, we're going to absolutely do that. So that's something that we're absolutely looking at.

如果有機會，我們可以為股東創造一些真正的價值，並增加一點槓桿率，但仍然保持在 5 倍以下，我們可以 - 並利用一些絕佳的機會，我們絕對會這樣做。所以這是我們正在關注的事情。

I think you're not going to see that right now because right now what we're looking for is some more stability in the transaction market. And right now, there's just not a tremendous amount of opportunities. So the opportunities that are there, we will match fund with dispositions in the near term, but as we go forward and execute the plan, you should see us buying and building more than we are selling.

我認為你現在不會看到這種情況，因為現在我們正在尋求的是交易市場的進一步穩定。而目前，機會並不多。因此，對於存在的機會，我們將在短期內將資金與配置進行匹配，但隨著我們向前推進並執行計劃，你應該會看到我們購買和建造的數量將超過我們銷售的數量。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場部的 John Kim 說。

I want to ask about revenue enhancing and repositioning CapEx, which you're looking to increase this year versus last year. Can you remind or update us on the typical return or rental uplift you get? And what was the contribution to either blended rents or same-store revenue for the $86 billion last year you had?

我想問一下關於增加收入和重新定位資本支出的問題，您希望今年的資本支出比去年增加。您能否提醒或更新我們您獲得的典型回報或租金成長？那麼，去年 860 億美元的收入對混合租金和同店收入的貢獻是多少？

Yeah, absolutely. Well, first of all, this is the first question we've had on repositions in about three years. So thank you, John, for bringing those back in.

是的，絕對是如此。嗯，首先，這是我們大約三年來第一次遇到有關重新定位的問題。所以謝謝你，約翰，把這些帶回來。

Our reposition program has been an absolutely tremendous success. We are generally getting somewhere around an 8% to 10% return on invested capital for what we're doing. And the way you should think about that is that generally, it equates to about $150 plus or minus per door in additional rent.

我們的重新定位計劃取得了巨大的成功。我們所做的投資資本報酬率一般在 8% 到 10% 左右。您應該這樣考慮：一般來說，這相當於每扇門的額外租金增加或減少約 150 美元。

When I look at the impact in 2024 from repositions, on an NOI basis, it was, call it 10 basis points to 15 basis points, which is certainly not nothing. I mean it's certainly something that makes a ton of sense to us, but you have to really remember that the real reason why we do repositions is it refreshes our portfolio. If you think about the type of real estate that we build on the exterior, it is absolutely timeless.

當我從 NOI 角度來觀察 2024 年重新定位的影響時，可以說它是 10 個基點到 15 個基點，這當然不是沒有影響的。我的意思是，這對我們來說確實是一件非常有意義的事情，但你必須記住，我們重新定位的真正原因是它刷新了我們的投資組合。如果您想想我們在外部建造的房地產類型，它絕對是永恆的。

But like everything else, kitchens and bathrooms are what really shows the age of a development. It shows the age of your house. And so if we can go in and we can refresh a kitchen and a bathroom and make it look brand new, and on the exterior, it looks brand new, it really does create a natural defense against the new supply that we see in the market.

但就像其他所有事物一樣，廚房和浴室才是真正體現房屋年代的東西。它顯示了你房子的年齡。因此，如果我們可以進去翻新廚房和浴室，使它們看起來煥然一新，從外觀上看，它看起來也是全新的，這確實可以對我們在市場上看到的新供應形成一種自然防禦。

When you think about a brand new asset has a much higher basis and of course, whoever owns that must charge much higher rents just to get the adequate return. We can have an asset directly next door or directly adjacent that looks brand new, has brand new kitchens and bathrooms, and because we have a lower basis, we can show -- we can charge a lower rental rate and it positions us incredibly well.

當你考慮到一個全新的資產有更高的基礎時，當然，無論誰擁有它，都必須收取更高的租金才能獲得足夠的回報。我們可以在隔壁或相鄰處擁有一處看上去全新的資產，有全新的廚房和浴室，而且由於我們的基礎較低，我們可以展示——我們可以收取較低的租金，這讓我們處於非常有利的位置。

So the reposition program is something that makes a ton of sense to us. It's something that you're going to see us do quite a bit. The other thing that I'd point out is that we are also looking at repurposing some of our real estate, and what that means is looking at space that we have in a community, call it a basketball court -- an indoor basketball court that nobody uses, et cetera and turning that into additional units, and that makes a lot of sense to us as well.

因此重新定位計劃對我們來說非常有意義。您會看到我們經常做這樣的事。我想指出的另一件事是，我們也在考慮重新利用我們的一些房地產，這意味著我們要把社區裡的一些空間，例如一個籃球場——一個沒人使用的室內籃球場等等，改造成額外的單位，這對我們來說也很有意義。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

I just want to get a sense of I mean I think it's been a pretty consistent theme this earning season that there is a pretty progressive step up in blended rents and ultimately rent growth in Sun Belt markets over the course of the year, but I'm trying to get a sense of the risk that all of us are wrong about the pace of supply dropping off over time and and how much of that cushion is baked into the current same-store guidance?

我只是想了解一下，我的意思是，我認為這個收益季節的一個相當一致的主題是，在一年的時間裡，混合租金和最終陽光地帶市場的租金增長有一個相當漸進的上升過程，但我想了解一下我們所有人對供應下降速度的判斷是否錯誤的風險，以及這種緩衝有多少被納入了目前的同店業績指引中？

Well, I think when you look at the anyone's numbers whether it be Whitten or RealPage or -- that supply is baked I mean for the next two years right now. You're not starting a bunch of units. I mean most supply is down, end markets are down and starts are down 50%, 60%. In a couple of markets, it's up a little like Phoenix, but it's all on the west side of Phoenix and we happen to be on the east side of Phoenix, which is a big difference.

嗯，我認為當你查看任何人的數字時，無論是 Whitten 還是 RealPage 或者 - 那個供應已經確定，我的意思是現在未來兩年。您不會啟動一堆單位。我的意思是大部分供應量下降，終端市場下降，開工量下降了 50% 到 60%。在幾個市場中，它有點像菲尼克斯，但它們都在菲尼克斯的西邊，而我們恰好在菲尼克斯的東邊，這是一個很大的區別。

And so I think -- I don't think there's a lot of risk on the supply being ratcheted up. I mean when you look at the pressure on the development -- developers today, when the tenure is pushing 4.5 and short rates haven't dropped as much as people thought they would drop, construction costs, while they're not up dramatically, they're also not down dramatically.

因此我認為—我不認為供應增加會帶來太大的風險。我的意思是，當你看到如今開發商面臨的開發壓力時，當任期逼近 4.5 且短期利率沒有像人們想像的那樣下降時，建築成本雖然沒有大幅上漲，但也沒有大幅下降。

There's still a lot of pressure on construction costs, just to keep them -- we've done -- we think that they're up maybe 1% or 2% from last year, but that doesn't include tariff issues. We did an analysis on tariffs. On tariffs, we'll add another 2% to 3% in cost. Most of products are bought, lumber comes out of Canada, a lot of products from Mexico, electrical boxes and things like that.

建築成本仍然面臨很大壓力，為了保持成本——我們已經做到了——我們認為建築成本可能比去年上漲 1% 或 2%，但這不包括關稅問題。我們對關稅進行了分析。在關稅方面，我們將再增加2%到3%的成本。大多數產品都是購買的，木材來自加拿大，很多產品來自墨西哥，電箱之類的東西。

So there's a -- I would say that with the current cost structure, you have to really pro forma significant rent increases in '26, '27, '28 in order to make a pro forma work. So I don't think that there's a big risk in a big upturn in development starts unless you have rates fall dramatically, construction costs fall dramatically, and that's just not happening.

因此，我想說，在目前的成本結構下，你必須真正預測 26、27、28 年的大幅租金上漲，才能讓預測結果有效。因此，我認為，除非利率大幅下降、建築成本大幅下降，否則開發開工量大幅上升不會帶來太大風險，而這種情況並沒有發生。

So I think there's pretty low risk from a supply perspective. I think the bigger risk probably is in what happens to the overall economy. I mean if we have a recession in 2025, then I think all bets are off on how well the -- how well things progress and I don't think that's on people's radar screen, but I do think that's probably the bigger risk when you think about how '25 could play out versus but it's not going to be on the supply side.

因此我認為從供應角度來看風險相當低。我認為更大的風險可能在於整體經濟會發生什麼變化。我的意思是，如果我們在 2025 年陷入經濟衰退，那麼我認為一切都將取決於事態的進展，我認為這不會出現在人們的視線中，但我確實認為，當你考慮 2025 年可能如何發展時，這可能是更大的風險，但它不會在供應方面。

I think when the supply is coming, we know it's coming, and then it stops. And it's going to take -- even if it -- even if you had a 50% increase in starts this year, they wouldn't come into play until 2027 or 2028. It just takes that long to deliver. So I think we've got clear sailing on supply at least through the end of '27 and into '28.

我認為，當供應到來時，我們知道它會到來，然後它就停止了。即使今年的開工量增加了 50%，也要到 2027 年或 2028 年才會發揮作用。只是需要那麼長時間才能交付。因此我認為至少到27年底到28年我們的供應情況會很順利。

Ami Probandt, UBS.

瑞銀的 Ami Probandt。

So we discussed Tampa, LA, San Diego, Washington D.C., and Houston is the top markets. Do you think that Camden's performance in these markets is representative of the overall market, or are there some Camden-specific attributes that are leading to stronger performance? And then specifically on Tampa, you mentioned a boost in demand in the fourth quarter. So I'm wondering if that's hurricane related and sustainable.

因此，我們討論了坦帕、洛杉磯、聖地牙哥、華盛頓特區，最後休士頓是主要市場。您是否認為卡姆登在這些市場的表現代表了整體市場，或者卡姆登是否有一些特定的屬性可以帶來更強勁的表現？然後具體到坦帕，您提到第四季度需求有所增長。所以我想知道這是否與颶風有關並且可持續。

So yeah, on Tampa, there it is hurricane related for sure and eventually that will moderate over time. I mean we've seen that happen in Houston with Harvey, et cetera. So that was definitely a hurricane related thing. On the performance in those other markets, I think if you look at the peer group, and the -- and those other markets, the biggest overlap that we have with public market period is in Washington D.C. Metro, and I think everybody had pretty constructive commentary around what's happening in Washington D.C. Metro.

是的，坦帕肯定存在著與颶風有關的威脅，但隨著時間的推移，這種威脅最終會逐漸緩和。我的意思是我們已經看到在休士頓發生的哈維等颶風造成的後果。所以那肯定是跟颶風有關的事。至於其他市場的表現，我認為如果你看看同行和其他市場，你會發現與公開市場時期重疊最大的是華盛頓特區地鐵，而且我認為每個人對華盛頓特區地鐵的情況都給出了相當建設性的評論。

Houston is the differentiator for us because we're the only public company that has any meaningful presence. And as Alex pointed out, it's 13%. It's our largest NOI concentration market that we have now. We're committed to bringing that down to single digits over some period of time.

休士頓對我們來說是一個差異化因素，因為我們是唯一一家具有重大影響力的上市公司。正如亞歷克斯指出的那樣，這個比例是 13%。這是我們目前最大的NOI集中市場。我們致力於在一段時間內將這一數字降至個位數。

But the reality is, is that Houston has just been a great performer for the last 1.5 years and it's again, looks like it will be in 2025 as well. And that's a combination of relatively low supply. You didn't have the waves of -- when all that the current pipeline was being put in play a couple of years ago, Houston sort of got missed because of a lot of other issues. But the energy sector is performing incredibly well.

但事實是，休士頓在過去的 1.5 年裡表現非常出色，看起來在 2025 年也仍將如此。這是由於供應量相對較低。幾年前，當所有現有管道投入使用時，並沒有出現那樣的浪潮，因為很多其他問題，休士頓並沒有受到重視。但能源產業的表現非常好。

And I think all indications are that's going to continue to be supported and maybe even much more supported than it has been in the last four years. So those two markets for sure I think anybody that has assets in those markets has done pretty well. On -- California -- Southern California story has been pretty good as well and a lot of that is driven by the cessation and the working through all of the COVID-related initiatives to include coming down on bad debts, et cetera.

我認為所有跡像都表明，這項舉措將繼續得到支持，甚至可能比過去四年得到更多的支持。因此，我認為在這兩個市場擁有資產的任何人都可以取得相當不錯的成績。加州——南加州的情況也相當不錯，這在很大程度上是由於停止和實施了所有與 COVID 相關的舉措，包括減少壞帳等。

So I think that's also a pretty good story for anybody that owns assets in Southern California. So I -- we tend to operate better in our markets on metrics on occupancy and NOI growth across the board. So there's probably some candidism just the way and the efficiency with which we operate our portfolio and our time in these markets and understanding on that helps.

所以我認為這對任何在南加州擁有資產的人來說也是一個很好的故事。因此，我們傾向於在入住率和 NOI 成長等指標上在我們的市場上取得更好的營運。因此，我們在這些市場中運作投資組合和時間的方式和效率可能存在一些坦率的因素，並且對此的理解會有所幫助。

But all five of those markets, if you've got assets in those markets, you're probably really happy right now and looking forward to let's bring on 2025.

但是，如果您在這五個市場中擁有資產，那麼您現在可能真的很高興，並期待 2025 年的到來。

I would brag a little bit more on Camden's execution ability. You don't -- you're not on the -- you don't become one of the 100 best companies to work for on Fortune 100 -- on Fortune's list for 17 years straight if you don't have a great team. And we all know Super Bowl is coming up on Sunday and we know that it's not just one player, it's team, it's philosophy, it's energy that synergy that brings the best out of the players and in our case, our players are working every day and believing that they need -- that they really want to take care of their customers.

我會再誇讚一下卡姆登的執行能力。如果你沒有一個優秀的團隊，你就不可能連續 17 年躋身《財星》雜誌最適合工作的 100 家公司之列。我們都知道超級盃將在周日舉行，我們知道這不僅僅是一名球員，而是一項團隊、一種哲學、一種能量，這種協同作用能讓球員發揮出最佳水平，在我們的例子中，我們的球員每天都在努力工作，並相信他們需要——他們真的想要照顧好他們的客戶。

And that just adds value and customers feel it. So when you have really -- a very great team, it's going to have -- incrementally, it's going to benefit customers and lower turnover. And when you ask somebody to raise their rent, they're going to say, yeah, okay, I like this place and you guys are fun and great people and so sure, I'll pay more. But I think that's a big part of Camden, there's no question.

這只會增加價值，客戶也能感受到。因此，當你擁有一支非常優秀的團隊時，它將會逐步地使客戶受益並降低人員流動率。當你要求某人提高租金時，他們會說，好吧，我喜歡這個地方，你們很有趣，也很友善，所以我願意付更多錢。但我認為這是卡姆登的重要組成部分，這是毫無疑問的。

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅伯史蒂文森、詹尼。

Regarding the $175 million to $675 million development start guidance, can you talk about where expected yields on any of these new starts are penciling today given construction costs and expected rents? If you need to wait for anything to start those projects? And also where is the expected yield there versus the expected yield on the three North Carolina assets you currently have under construction?

關於 1.75 億至 6.75 億美元的開發開工指導，您能否談談，考慮到建築成本和預期租金，這些新開工項目的預期收益率如何？是否需要等待什麼才能啟動這些專案？而且，與您目前正在建造的三個北卡羅來納州資產的預期收益率相比，那裡的預期收益率如何？

Sure. The -- our projected yields, given the current, backdrop of cost and rental rate growth and what have you, is around 6%. And that's kind of where our starts -- our development numbers have been, including the ones in -- that were -- are currently under construction. But I will tell you it's not easy to find a lot of developments that pencil to those numbers. And so that's why we haven't been able to lean in as much as we'd like to, but I think given the markets that we're in and where our developments are located, we should have excess outsized rent growth that can get us to those numbers are better.

當然。考慮到當前成本和租金成長的背景，我們預計收益率約為 6%。這就是我們的起點 — — 我們的開發案數量，包括目前正在建造的項目。但我要告訴你，要找到大量符合這些數字的發展成果並不容易。這就是為什麼我們沒能像我們希望的那樣努力，但我認為，考慮到我們所在的市場和我們開發項目的所在地，我們應該有超額的租金增長，這樣才能讓我們達到更好的數字。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當克萊默。

Wanted to ask about Washington D.C. a little bit and maybe a few questions in here. I think just first, just maybe the latest on demand. There are obviously a lot of headlines around what's happening with kind of federal workers and and maybe a smaller federal government. Maybe just what's happening from the demand side in the last couple weeks there and maybe what your outlook is as maybe the composition of the government changes.

想問一些關於華盛頓特區的問題以及一些問題。我認為只是第一個，也許只是最新的需求。顯然，許多頭條新聞都報道聯邦工作人員和聯邦政府規模縮小的情況。也許只是過去幾週需求方面發生的情況，也許隨著政府組成發生變化，您的觀點是什麼。

And then just the second part there again, still in D.C., what are you guys seeing in terms of cap rates or even on a per square foot basis in terms of the transaction market in D.C.?

然後再次回到第二部分，仍然在華盛頓特區，就華盛頓特區的交易市場而言，你們看到的資本化率或每平方英尺的情況如何？

Let me have the current transaction market first. D.C. is a great transaction market. Cap rates are in the -- depending on the property, in the mid-4s to high 4s, plus or minus. So there's still a decent demand there. And when you look at the fact that D.C. has not -- has been an outperformer from the revenue growth for the last couple of years and will continue, we think be in that kind of A category range. I think that transaction volume will be good.

首先讓我介紹一下目前的交易市場。華盛頓特區是一個很好的交易市場。資本化率取決於房產，在 4% 左右到 4% 左右高點之間，可能有正負之分。因此那裡仍然有相當大的需求。如果你看到華盛頓特區過去幾年的收入成長一直表現優異並且將繼續保持這一勢頭，我們認為它應該處於 A 類範圍內。我認為交易量會不錯。

When you think about government changes, it's really interesting. If you look at some of the single family markets there, I mean there's been a spike in prices for sale property there because of the transition, because of the new administration. And there's always tends to be more demand during transitions than if you just had an incumbent win.

當你思考政府變化時，這真的很有趣。如果你看看那裡的一些獨戶住宅市場，你會發現，由於新政府的轉變，那裡的房產價格出現了飆升。而且，與現任總統獲勝相比，過渡期間的需求總是會更多。

I'll let Keith talk more about the current demand.

我會讓 Keith 進一步談談當前的需求。

Go ahead, Keith.

繼續吧，基斯。

Yeah. I mean the -- it's like trying to figure out the cross currents right now between kind of what's being talked about versus kind of thinking about what do you think's actually going to happen is, man, it's a crapshoot, I think and for every time you hear government potential or government downsizing of people, I think the latest number I heard was they offered everybody in the entire federal government a buyout, a package and the last count, I think it was up to 20,000 or 25,000 people that said they're going to sign up for that, which is a rounding error of the federal workforce.

是的。我的意思是——這就像試圖弄清楚現在正在談論的事情與思考實際上會發生什麼之間的矛盾，夥計，這是一場賭博，我認為，每次你聽到政府可能或政府裁員的消息，我認為我聽到的最新數字是，他們向整個聯邦政府的每個人都提供了一筆買斷，一項一攬子計劃，最後一次統計顯示，我認為有多達 20,000 名勞動力的五捨。

So I think that at the same time, that conversation's going on. You're having another broader conversation. About if you're a federal employee that you're going to have to come back to the office. And so I think that there's probably a knock-on effect there of D.C. proper, which frankly for us has been the weak link in our D.C. Metro portfolio for the last two years.

所以我認為同時，這種對話仍在繼續。您正在進行另一場更廣泛的對話。如果你是聯邦僱員你就必須回到辦公室。所以我認為這可能會對華盛頓特區產生連鎖反應，坦白說，過去兩年來，華盛頓特區一直是我們華盛頓特區地鐵投資組合中的弱點。

And it could very well be that as people have to return to work in an actual office, a preponderance and a big portion of which are in D.C. proper that it's going to make more sense for them to potentially move back closer to or into D.C. proper.

很有可能的是，隨著人們必須返回實際辦公室工作，而其中絕大多數人在華盛頓特區本區，因此，搬回離華盛頓特區更近的地方或進入華盛頓特區本區對他們來說更有意義。

So I think there's a lot of cross currents. I think there's a lot of talk. And I think you're probably never going to go broke betting on the under on how many federal employees are actually going to -- go do something else regardless of who asked them to do so.

因此我認為存在著許多矛盾。我認為有很多話題。我認為，如果你押注聯邦僱員實際上會去做其他事情，無論是誰要求他們這樣做，你很可能永遠不會破產。

And I'll say year-to-date, D.C. Metro has our highest increase in signed new lease rates.

我想說的是，今年迄今為止，華盛頓地鐵的簽訂新租約率增幅最高。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的朱利安布魯因 (Julien Blouin)。

I just wanted to ask on the spread between the low end and the high end of development starts in 2025. Sort of what drives you to sort of trend closer to the low end versus the high end this year?

我只是想問一下 2025 年開發開工的低端和高端之間的差距。那麼，是什麼促使您今年的趨勢更接近低端而不是高端？

It's just a matter of making sure that we hit what we believe that would be reasonable spreads, and a reasonable return. I mean if one of the things that we've seen, just take Nashville as an example. I mean Nashville is so busy from a development perspective, costs went up so dramatically, you couldn't get anybody to bid your jobs. Now we seven deep of subcontractors bidding on our Nashville nation's property.

這只是為了確保我們達到我們認為的合理利差和合理回報。我的意思是，如果我們已經看到了其中一件事，那就以納許維爾為例。我的意思是，從發展的角度來看，納許維爾非常繁忙，成本急劇上升，你無法找到任何人來競標你的工作。現在我們有七家分包商正在競標我們納許維爾國家的財產。

So the -- what happened then is that A, you've had construction costs flattened, maybe go down a little, and then B, on the other hand, you have a broader sub-base, which means that tells me that once we execute contracts, we can probably get buy-out of anywhere from 2% to 3% or 4% less when we buy out the -- when we actually buy the contracts rather than just asking them to tell us what they would go for.

那麼，當時發生的情況是：A，你的建築成本趨於平穩，可能還下降了一點；B，另一方面，你有一個更廣泛的子基數，這意味著，一旦我們執行合同，當我們真正購買合同時，而不是僅僅要求他們告訴我們他們會選擇什麼，我們可能可以獲得從 2% 到 3% 或 4% 的買斷成本。

So it's going to be -- so towards the middle of the year, we'll have a better view of when that second derivatives turns positive in a lot of these markets on rental rates and that would just give us more confidence to lean in. So it's really a decision about we need to get paid for development risks. So we need 100 basis points to 150 basis points positive spread between what we can buy for and what we can build for.

所以到今年年中，我們將對許多市場中二階衍生性商品對租金的影響何時變成正值有更好的了解，這將使我們更有信心去應對。所以這實際上是一個關於我們需要為開發風險獲得報酬的決定。因此，我們需要在可購買金額和可建造金額之間保持 100 個基點到 150 個基點的正利差。

And then we have to have the confidence that the revenue growth is going to be there in '26 and '27 and '28. We'll get more confidence of that mid-year. So that'll determine sort of whether we get to the high end of that range. One of the other, I think opportunities that we could see, basically is, merchant builders who can't get their deals done and we can then step into those deals and get those done.

然後我們必須有信心，26年、27年和28年的收入將會成長。我們對年中的事會更有信心。所以這將決定我們是否能達到該範圍的高端。我認為，我們可以看到另一個機會，基本上是那些無法完成交易的商人建築商，我們可以介入這些交易並完成它們。

We have historically done that a lot over the years, especially during transition times like we have now. And so we might be able to pick up some of those that can't get done either. So that could push us towards the high end of that range as well.

多年來，我們經常這樣做，特別是在像現在這樣的過渡時期。因此我們也許能夠解決一些無法完成的任務。因此這也可能推動我們走向該範圍的高端。

Connor Mitchell, Piper Sandler.

康納米切爾，派珀桑德勒。

Maybe just going back to the broader transaction markets. I appreciate all the color so far. And it just seems like there's still a ton of money bidding on apartments inside financing costs and the expectations for rent growth to eventually overcome that obstacle.

也許只是回到更廣泛的交易市場。到目前為止，我很欣賞所有的顏色。而且看起來，仍有大量資金在競標公寓，而融資成本和租金成長的預期最終將克服這一障礙。

But you guys have talked about the -- maybe the increased pick up in the back half of the year. So I guess my question is just how much longer do you think the negative leverage will last, especially thinking about how much more there is to come in transactions in the back half?

但你們已經談到了——也許今年下半年會有成長。所以我想我的問題是，您認為負槓桿會持續多久，尤其是考慮到下半年還有多少交易？

And I guess just a quick follow up on that. Do you think that the market might be too aggressive on the rate of growth being underwritten for '26, '27, or is it really that high of an expectation that justifies the negative leverage?

我想這只是對此進行快速跟進。您是否認為市場對於 26 年、27 年的成長率的預期可能過於激進，或者預期真的如此之高以至於值得負槓桿？

Well, that's what people are betting on, for sure, is that '26 and '27 are going to be outsized growth years. And if history is any indication of what might be the future, that's exactly what's happened over the years. You have a downturn, you have excess supply, you have a recession or what have you. And then happens is you have a snapback. And usually, supply continues to be robust but we know that supply is not going to be robust.

嗯，人們肯定押注的是，26 年和 27 年將超額成長。如果歷史可以預示未來，那麼這些年來確實發生了這樣的事情。你遇到了經濟衰退，你遇到了供應過剩，你遇到了經濟衰退等等。然後發生的事情就是你有一個反彈。通常情況下，供應會持續強勁，但我們知道供應不會強勁。

And if the job market just holds up and the economy holds up, we'll get 2% GDP growth or 1.5% to 2%. You can or buyers are going to be underwriting significant rent growth in '26 and '27, '28. Otherwise, they would never -- they can't make their numbers, right? And especially when you look at where the prices are today. So I think what's going to happen, that will drive buyers and sellers closer together is the NOIs are going to go up in some markets in 2025.

如果就業市場和經濟保持穩定，我們的 GDP 將成長 2% 或 1.5% 至 2%。您可以或買家將承擔 26 年、27 年和 28 年的大幅租金成長。否則，他們就永遠無法達到他們的目標，對嗎？尤其是當你看到今天的價格時。因此，我認為將會發生的情況是，到 2025 年，某些市場的淨銷售額將會上升，這將使買家和賣家更加緊密地聯繫在一起。

And when you think about the -- our top markets, our NOIs are growing. And so even if the cap rate stays the same, the cash flows are growing and you have a trajectory that you can count on. And then hopefully, I think people are betting on, even though rates are going to be higher for longer, over a longer period, they believe that they're going to come down some.

當您考慮我們的主要市場時，我們的 NOI 正在成長。因此，即使資本化率保持不變，現金流也在成長，您可以獲得可依賴的軌跡。然後我希望人們能夠押注，儘管利率將在較長時間內保持在較高水平，但他們相信利率會有所下降。

So I think the combination of supply, the ability to drive your revenue growth and your NOI growth is going to keep people and they'll be able -- that they will continue to buy even with negative leverage today. I think long term, if the NOI growth isn't there, and if rates don't come down some, then cap rates have to go up, or you're going to have a stalemate between the buyers and sellers.

因此，我認為供應、推動收入成長的能力和淨營運收入成長的結合將留住人們，並且他們將能夠——即使在今天的負槓桿下，他們也會繼續購買。我認為，從長遠來看，如果淨營運收入沒有成長，且利率沒有下降，那麼資本化率就必須上升，否則買家和賣家之間就會陷入僵局。

And so we'll see what happens, but right now, the market's pretty robust. And what happens is really interesting, and there's a transaction, for example, that we're bidding on in Nashville recently. And if you're trying to buy at a specific cap rate like we are, the seller basically just said, look, we hear your number and we're going to hope and their view is that they're going to get a higher price in the future. The cap will be the same, perhaps, but their cash flow growth will be higher.

我們將拭目以待接下來會發生什麼，但目前，市場相當強勁。發生的事情真的很有趣，例如，我們最近在納許維爾競標一筆交易。如果你像我們一樣試圖以特定的資本化率購買，賣家基本上會說，看，我們聽到了你的數字，我們希望並且他們的觀點是他們將來會得到更高的價格。或許上限會相同，但其現金流成長會更高。

And so they're -- I think there'll be an interesting -- it'll be very interesting to see what happens between now and mid-year to the end of the year in 2025. But I think it's going to be a more robust transaction market. And I think all the signs are that we'll get that positive second derivative on new rent growth and that's going to create a lot of opportunity for sellers to come into the market and for buyers to buy.

所以我認為會很有趣——看看從現在到 2025 年年中到年底會發生什麼，這將非常有趣。但我認為這將會是一個更強勁的交易市場。我認為所有跡像都表明，我們將獲得新租金成長的正二階導數，這將為賣家進入市場和買家購買創造大量機會。

Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·劉易斯 (Michael Lewis)，Truist Securities。

I wanted to come back to this decision to have no more than 10% of your portfolio in any market. So there's been this trend toward diversification of apartment rates lately. As you know, a lot of that is Coastal investors diversifying into more of your markets. Aren't there any markets that you just think are better, right? They're just flat out better apartment markets for the next 10 or 15 years or whatever it might be, or is that not really the case? There's nothing structural or secular there?

我想回到這個決定：任何市場的投資組合都不應該超過 10%。所以最近公寓價格出現了多樣化的趨勢。如您所知，其中許多是沿海投資者正在向更多的市場進行多元化投資。難道您認為沒有更好的市場嗎？在未來 10 年或 15 年內，或無論何時，它們都將成為更好的公寓市場，或者事實並非如此？那裡沒有任何結構性或世俗的東西嗎？

I'm just thinking about does this decision say more about Houston and D.C. or does it say more about a wide opportunity set across your markets and it being a little bit difficult to distinguish?

我只是在想，這個決定是否更反映了休士頓和華盛頓特區的情況，還是更多地反映了你們市場中存在的廣泛機遇，而且有點難以區分？

So I would say it's more about the opportunities set across all our markets. And when you say some markets are better, well, it depends on when. For example, three years ago, Houston and Washington, D.C. were the problem children in Camden's portfolio. It's all anybody wanted to talk about and it's a lot of what we talked about internally because those are our two largest markets and they were underperforming and had been for about two or three years straight.

因此我想說這更多的與我們所有市場所面臨的機會有關。當你說某些市場更好時，嗯，這取決於時間。例如，三年前，休士頓和華盛頓特區是卡姆登投資組合中的問題城市。這是所有人都想談論的話題，也是我們內部討論的話題，因為這是我們最大的兩個市場，而它們的表現一直不佳，而且這種情況已經持續了兩三年。

So fast forward, here we are today, Washington D.C. Metro and Houston are our top two performer and are in the top five and probably slated to be in the top two or three for this year and probably next year as well. So if you ask that question, some markets is better, yeah. I mean four years ago, all of them would have been better than Houston and D.C. Metro. And today, it's reversed.

時間飛快，今天我們看到，華盛頓特區地鐵和休士頓是我們表現最好的兩個城市，並且都進入了前五名，並且很可能在今年和明年都會進入前二或前三名。所以如果你問這個問題，有些市場更好，是的。我的意思是四年前，它們都會比休士頓和華盛頓特區的地鐵更好。而今天，情況卻逆轉了。

It's more about just having a balance among 15 markets that we absolutely love. Every market that's in our portfolio has the characteristics that exemplify what we want to see in migration, job growth. Consistently performing on the ability to move rents over time and to operate the assets from an expense standpoint at a level that allows us to grow cash flow.

這更重要的是在我們非常喜歡的 15 個市場之間取得平衡。我們投資組合中的每個市場都具有我們希望看到的移民和就業成長的特徵。持續發揮隨時間推移轉移租金的能力，並從費用角度運營資產，以使我們能夠增加現金流。

So I -- it's not a statement anyway about D.C. and Houston, it's just a statement about we got great opportunities in other markets -- growth opportunities in markets like Austin and Nashville where we're underweight, and it's just balancing those opportunities.

因此，這並不是關於華盛頓特區和休士頓的聲明，只是關於我們在其他市場獲得了巨大機會的聲明，在奧斯汀和納許維爾等市場，我們的持股不足，只是在平衡這些機會。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

It's Daniel Tricarico for Nick.

丹尼爾·特里卡里科代表尼克。

Alex, I wanted to clarify your answer to Jamie's question at the beginning. You said new lease rates are turning positive in Q3 and continuing from there. Does that mean it's going to continue to improve on an absolute basis? Like are you assuming like a normal seasonal pattern into the fourth quarter, or is there a comp benefit with that being absorbed that would cause Q4 to look seasonally?

亞歷克斯，我想澄清一下你一開始對傑米的問題的回答。您說新租賃率在第三季轉為正值並且將繼續保持下去。這是否意味著它將在絕對基礎上繼續改善？例如，您是否假設第四季會出現正常的季節性模式，或者是否有被吸收的補償福利，導致第四季出現季節性變化？

Right. So we're going to return to seasonality. And at least that's what's in our budgets. And so what that means is that you see the positive new lease rates in the third quarter. And then in the fourth quarter, that's always our softest quarter. It's just -- there's just not a lot of people who want to move around the holiday season, et cetera. And that's usually when we have the least amount of pricing power. And so you should see it start to return to a more normal seasonal pattern at that point in time.

正確的。因此我們將回到季節性的討論。至少我們的預算是這樣的。這意味著第三季的新租賃率將呈現正成長。而在第四季度，這始終是我們最疲軟的一個季度。只是——在假期等期間，沒有多少人願意搬家。而這通常是我們定價權最弱的時候。因此你應該會看到它在那個時間點開始恢復到更正常的季節性模式。

David Segall, Green Street.

大衛西加爾 (David Segall)，綠街。

I just wanted to drill down a bit more onto the proposed the development part -- the development starts. Can you ballpark the range or rents per unit you would need to achieve in Nashville and Denver to achieve the 6% yield?

我只是想更深入地探討一下所提議的開發部分——開發開始了。您能估算一下在納許維爾和丹佛要達到 6% 的收益率需要達到的每單位租金範圍嗎？

Do you have those, Alex?

你有這些嗎，亞歷克斯？

I don't. We'll have to get back to you with that.

我不知道。我們會盡快回覆您。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯金（Alex Kim），澤爾曼及合夥人。

I always appreciate the song choices leading up this call as well.

我一直很欣賞這通通話中所選擇的歌曲。

I was wondering if you could talk about your leasing trends so far for the three communities in lease-up, and how that flows just into the lease-up revenue line for the quarter and then more broadly for your 2025 view.

我想知道您是否可以談談迄今為止三個社區的租賃趨勢，以及這對本季度的租賃收入有何影響，以及更廣泛地說，對 2025 年的展望如何。

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是如此。

So if you look at the communities that we have in lease-up, two of them are the single family rental communities. And we've been very upfront that our single family rental communities they're slowly leasing. They just are. It's the particular demographic that looks for that product type has a tendency to show up once and they show up again, and they show up and they measure a bedroom and make sure that their furniture can fit, et cetera.

所以如果你看看我們的租賃社區，其中兩個是單戶租賃社區。我們非常坦率地表示，我們的單戶住宅租賃社區的租賃情況正在緩慢改善。他們就是這樣。尋找該產品類型的特定人群往往會出現一次並再次出現，他們出現並測量臥室並確保他們的家具合適等等。

And so it is a slower leasing. Now the good news is that we think they're going to be really sticky. And we think once they're in, the turnover, if it takes them that long to make a decision to move in, we think it'll take them equally as long to make a decision to move out. But that's what we've been seeing.

因此租賃速度較慢。現在的好消息是我們認為它們將會非常黏稠。我們認為，一旦他們搬進來，如果他們需要那麼長時間才能做出搬進來的決定，那麼我們認為他們也會花同樣長的時間來做出搬出去的決定。但這就是我們所看到的。

When I look at Camden Durham, which is our last -- the third one that's in lease-up, during the fourth quarter, we had the type of leasing that we'd expect, which is slower. As I said, to one of the previous calls, the fourth quarter is always the slowest quarter and that's no different whether or not it's a new lease-up or an existing asset.

當我看到卡姆登達勒姆（Camden Durham）時，這是我們最後一個，也是第三個處於租賃期的購物中心，在第四季度，我們的租賃情況正如我們預期的那樣，速度較慢。正如我之前在電話會議中所說的那樣，第四季度始終是最慢的季度，無論是新租賃還是現有資產，情況都一樣。

That being said, if you look where they are, so Woodmill Creek is 89% occupied. Durham is 78% occupied. So both of those are getting very close to stabilization. And so obviously, we should get some uptick in 2025 from those two as they stabilize. And then Long Meadow Farms is a little bit behind the other two just because it started after them at 53% leased.

話雖如此，如果你看看他們在哪裡，Woodmill Creek 的佔用率為 89%。達勒姆的入住率為 78%。因此，這兩者都已經非常接近穩定。因此顯然，隨著這兩個市場的穩定，我們應該在 2025 年獲得一些上漲。而 Long Meadow Farms 稍微落後於另外兩家農場，因為它起步晚於另外兩家農場，出租率為 53%。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ric Campo for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給 Ric Campo 做最後發言。

Well, I appreciate your time today and we're glad to close out the earnings season for the large cap multifamily. So we'll see you at the next conference or next road show. Thanks.

好吧，我感謝您今天抽出時間，我們很高興能結束大型多戶型住宅的收益季。我們將在下次會議或路演中見到您。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。